Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2004 U.S. Presidential Election => Topic started by: ?????????? on October 29, 2004, 01:51:14 PM



Title: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: ?????????? on October 29, 2004, 01:51:14 PM
The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest[/i]

This thread is a thread to post your FINAL  prediction map. What you think will happen on the evening of November 2nd. Their won't be a prize for the winner (like me flying you to Orlando or something). So don't hope for one. :P I have a basic set of rules here and they are pretty easy to follow. So don't break them and get disqualified please. :)

  • Editing of the posts is NOT allowed under any circumstances. If you make a spelling error, so be it because it's forgivable.
  • Please don't post messages in the thread. It's not a discussion of the maps. The only messages allowed will be explanations of the maps.
  • Please post maps with percentages only please. Maps made from the calculator will be disqualified.

  • Map posts will commence today and be accepted until November 2nd at 7pm EST. No later or it will be disqualified.
  • The poster who's map is correct will be named the OFFICIAL Atlas Forum Election 2004 Prediction Champ. Once again the only thing you get for it is bragging rights and maybe to be drooled on by my daughter!
()

  • But the most important rule is : Lets keep it civil and have fun![/i]

    Good luck and may the best poster in.




    (Note : Dave, please don't move me :) I hope for everyone to participate in this and some who read this board only participate in this section of the forum. :)  Thanks :) )


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on October 29, 2004, 01:53:29 PM

What do you mean by percentages?


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: ?????????? on October 29, 2004, 01:58:22 PM

A map from the Prediction page..not from the caculator.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Erc on October 29, 2004, 02:02:19 PM
What if nobody's right?  (It's a long shot that one person will get every single percentage right in every state)

I'll post mine in a subsequent post come Monday night.

When's the deadline?  Midnight on Monday?  0700 on Tuesday?  17:59 EST on Tuesday?


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: ?????????? on October 29, 2004, 02:03:39 PM
What if nobody's right?  (It's a long shot that one person will get every single percentage right in every state)

I'll post mine in a subsequent post come Monday night.

When's the deadline?  Midnight on Monday?  0700 on Tuesday?  17:59 EST on Tuesday?

The rules say 7pm EST on Tuesday. End discussions please. :)


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: ?????????? on October 29, 2004, 02:18:56 PM
I will now enter my prediction map :

()

Bush -  328[/b]

Kerry -  210[/b]

Popular vote guess.

Bush 51%
Kerry 47%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Redefeatbush04 on October 29, 2004, 02:27:59 PM
This has been my final prediction for a while. I stand by it.

()


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Alcon on October 29, 2004, 02:33:23 PM
()

PV:
Bush 50%
Kerry 47%
Nader 1%
Other 2%

Other includes Badnarik, who I give about a 50% chance of being able to eek out enough votes to round to 1%. I give Nader about a 65% chance of this.

EDIT:

Oh yes, and EV's:

Bush 283
Kerry 254
Abstain 1


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Horus on October 29, 2004, 02:33:46 PM
()

Kerry - 272
Bush - 266

PV
Bush - 49%
Kerry - 48%
Badnarik - 1%
Nader, Peroutka, write-in - 2%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: sgpine on October 29, 2004, 02:57:25 PM
Kerry 289, Bush 248, 1 Abstain.
Final Totals:
Bush: 49.2%
Kerry: 48.6%
Nadar: 1.3%
Other: 0.9%
Call it 2000's mirror image.
()


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: khirkhib on October 29, 2004, 03:15:20 PM
Watch it.  By Tuesday Arkansas, West Virginia and Colorado could switch back to Kerry.  The Bush story is unraveling.

()


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: A18 on October 29, 2004, 03:53:49 PM
()

EVs: Bush 349, Kerry 189

Bush 52%, Kerry 46%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Blue Rectangle on October 29, 2004, 04:34:11 PM
()
Bush 301/50.1%
Kerry 237/47.6%

I'll be different and say that Bush can pull off NH in a fairly close election.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Fritz on October 29, 2004, 06:51:14 PM
Kerry 272, Bush 266

()


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: The Dowager Mod on October 29, 2004, 07:00:32 PM
272 Kerry
265 Bush
-1 faithless elector
()


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: AuH2O on October 29, 2004, 07:22:47 PM

()


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on October 29, 2004, 09:48:17 PM
What if nobody's right?  (It's a long shot that one person will get every single percentage right in every state)

I'll post mine in a subsequent post come Monday night.

When's the deadline?  Midnight on Monday?  0700 on Tuesday?  17:59 EST on Tuesday?

The rules say 7pm EST on Tuesday. End discussions please. :)

Dude, there will be several sets of Exit Polls leaked by then.  I suggest no later than 12 noon EST on Tuesday....7am EST (before any votes are cast) would be the fairest.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: jimrtex on October 30, 2004, 05:13:51 AM
Bush 296, Kerry 240, 2 not voting (WV and DC)

()


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Friar on October 30, 2004, 05:26:13 AM
How do I post my map? I have a map generated but don't know the html code to post it here. Someone please enlighten me, so I can take part in the contest.

Thanks


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: mddem2004 on October 30, 2004, 07:11:10 AM
()

KERRY 284     50.5%
BUSH  254     48.0%
OTHER             1.5%   


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Akno21 on October 30, 2004, 08:04:11 AM
How do I post my map? I have a map generated but don't know the html code to post it here. Someone please enlighten me, so I can take part in the contest.

Thanks

Right click on it, go to properties, copy the info there. Then go here, do () and post it.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: nini2287 on October 30, 2004, 08:33:19 AM
()

Kerry--271 EV
Bush--266 EV
Abstain--1 EV

Bush-49.2%
Kerry-48.7%
Nader-.8%
Others-1.3%

Oh, sweet irony.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Redefeatbush04 on October 30, 2004, 04:07:28 PM
bringing this thread to the front of the board


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Reaganfan on October 30, 2004, 09:28:30 PM
HERE IS MINE:
Bush: 296
Kerry: 242

Popular vote: Bush 51 Kerry: 49

()


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: jacob_101 on October 31, 2004, 12:00:55 AM
Final Prediction:

Bush 311
Kerry 227

()


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Rococo4 on October 31, 2004, 02:07:28 AM
I am having trouble getting my map up.....i'll work on it tomorrow

But My Final Pick:
Bush 31 states, 289 EV, 49.4% PV
Kerry 20 states, 249 EV, 48.4% PV

Changes from 00

Kerry gains NH
Bush gains MN, NM


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: The Duke on October 31, 2004, 02:52:18 AM
()


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 31, 2004, 03:00:01 AM
Hmm... no idea... everything is too messed up. I'll sit this out.

Although I reckon there will be a couple of upsets. There usually is.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: freedomburns on October 31, 2004, 04:35:21 AM
()

There are seven states that I consider to still be toss-ups.  They are too close to call.  They will determine the final outcome, and I expect the final outcome to be within two points in each of these seven.  They are: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

I am not confident in predicting the election for either candidate.  There are too many states still in play and too many variables. 

Confidence Tally:
Kerry - 242
Bush - 213
Toss - 83

Final Tally:
Kerry - 304
Bush - 234

Popular Vote: 
Kerry - 51.0%
Bush - 47.0%
Other - 2.0%


Senate 50/50
House Dem 211, Rep 224

fb


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Friar on October 31, 2004, 08:06:13 AM
()

My map is based on prediction of 6-8% higher turnout than normal, which I believe will help Kerry big time. The turnout will not only carry all the battlegrounds for him but will win him also states that are barely Bush as CO, NV, WV and AR.

If I am wrong and turnout is not as big as I expect then Bush might carry some of the MI, WI, IA and MN as well as a sure wins in FL, NV, AR, WV and NM. Thus winning the election.



Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Umengus on October 31, 2004, 08:30:51 AM
https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/PREDMAPSP/pe2004471P9.png

Kerry: 50 (279)
Bush: 48 (259)



Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Jake on October 31, 2004, 10:24:47 AM
()

EV
Bush  276
Kerry  261
FE          1

PV
Bush 49.0
Kerry 48.5
Nader     1
Badnarik 1
Other     .5


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 31, 2004, 10:34:24 AM
I'm with Al. I'll sit this out.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Platypus on October 31, 2004, 02:35:00 PM
()

PV: Bush 49%, Kerry 49%
EV: Kerry 269, Bush 269

Closest states: 1. Iowa; 2. Wisconsin; 3. New Mexico.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: barefootguy on October 31, 2004, 03:41:11 PM
Here's mine: 

()

EV's

Kerry - 299

Bush - 238

1 abstain (from WV)

Popular Vote - Kerry 50.1 , Bush 49.6, Others .5

P.S.  I did NOT edit my predictions!!!  I simply left out a slash in the filename and my prediction didn't post first try!!!



Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: ?????????? on October 31, 2004, 03:42:46 PM
Here's mine: 

()

EV's

Kerry - 299

Bush - 238

1 abstain (from WV)

Popular Vote - Kerry 50.1 , Bush 49.6, Others .5



Corrected.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: King on October 31, 2004, 03:48:15 PM
()

Bush 295
Kerry 242
Badnarik 1 (from WV)

Popular Vote
Bush 50.2%
Kerry 48.6%
Nader 0.5%
Badnarik 0.4%
Peroutka 0.2%
Others 0.1%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Light Touch on October 31, 2004, 04:08:45 PM
()

Bush 50%
Kerry 47%
Badnarik 1%
Nader 1%
Others 1%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Alcon on October 31, 2004, 04:14:27 PM
Wow, I hope that this doesn't actually happen. But it's my latest prediction.

()

Bush 269
Kerry 268
Abstain 1

Bush 49%
Kerry 48%
Badnarik 1%
Nader 1%
Other 1%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Alcon on October 31, 2004, 05:57:38 PM
Refined my prediction yet again:

()

Bush 296
Kerry 241
Abstain 1

I also now have individual popular vote projections for the states:
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=11699


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: NHPolitico on October 31, 2004, 06:18:35 PM
()

PV...

Bush-Cheney: 52.1%
Kerry-Edwards: 46.6%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: ATFFL on October 31, 2004, 08:53:02 PM
Here is mine.  And my dog's.

()

Bush 306
Kerry 232


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: 7,052,770 on October 31, 2004, 10:55:00 PM
()
There's my final.
Kerry 325, Bush 213.  So what if it's partisan?  Undecideds break for the challenger and I'm a crazy optimistic 17-year-old liberal with backlash from the ultraconservative people who live around me.
No abstentions!


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Erc on November 01, 2004, 12:17:38 AM
()

Bush 300 - Kerry 238

Maybe a bit optimistic on WI & NH, but ah well.

Bush wins 50.2-47.8 in the EV, 1 to Nader and 1 to various others


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: A18 on November 01, 2004, 12:23:01 AM
It would be great to see Bush get an even 300


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 01, 2004, 01:59:29 AM
()

Bush - 321
Kerry - 217


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Citizen James on November 01, 2004, 03:01:21 AM
Let's see if I can get the image to post:

()

Kerry 297
Bush 240
Faithless 1 (WV)

Final tally:
Kerry 52
Bush 46.5
Others:1.5%

Badnarik > Cobb > Petrokia > Nader.

I think turnout will be very high, and though Bush will do well in his strongholds Kerry will carry the day in most of the battleground states.  I am calling Virginia for Kerry on the theory that high voter turnout in the NoVa suburbs will tip the ballance over to his side.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: AuH2O on November 01, 2004, 03:04:07 AM

There's my final.
Kerry 325, Bush 213.  So what if it's partisan?  Undecideds break for the challenger and I'm a crazy optimistic 17-year-old liberal with backlash from the ultraconservative people who live around me.
No abstentions!

That's cool...but like Smash Mouth said, "Tomorrow's gonna hurt..."


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: raggage on November 01, 2004, 03:25:21 AM

There's my final.
Kerry 325, Bush 213.  So what if it's partisan?  Undecideds break for the challenger and I'm a crazy optimistic 17-year-old liberal with backlash from the ultraconservative people who live around me.
No abstentions!

That's cool...but like Smash Mouth said, "Tomorrow's gonna hurt..."

But "Bush was looking kinda dumb with his finger and his thumb in the shape of an L on his forehead"


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: KerryAlva on November 01, 2004, 03:53:06 AM
My Prediction:

Kerry: 293
Bush: 245

States to note:

Colorado and New Mexico are Kerry because of the heavy hispanic turnout tomorrow.

Bush wins Florida, but loses Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa

Virginia will probably go Bush. but is a tossup

New Hampshire switch sides and goes Kerry

Senate:

GOP pads lead in Senate to 55-45 (net gain of 4).  They gain South Dakota, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, and North Carolina and the GOP loses Illinois and Oklahoma and the Dems will gain the other Oklahoma Senate Seat in 2008.

Dems gain ground in the House.  Current makeup is 226-208-1.  The Dems will pick up 6 seats, 4 in Texas and 1 in Oklahoma CD 1, and 1 elsewhere, and the independent turns Democrat making the new House makeup 222-213.
Tom DeLay is one of the congressmen that will lose.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: minionofmidas on November 01, 2004, 03:58:43 AM
My final:
Kerry 274, picking up NH and OH.
Bush 264, picking up WI.
This is actually based on weighted poll averages - but skewed by 1.5 points towards Kerry. Otherwise OH, IA and NM would all be Bush country, and now who would want to see that!? ;)


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: KerryAlva on November 01, 2004, 04:16:55 AM
My final:
Kerry 274, picking up NH and OH.
Bush 264, picking up WI.
This is actually based on weighted poll averages - but skewed by 1.5 points towards Kerry. Otherwise OH, IA and NM would all be Bush country, and now who would want to see that!? ;)

Very realistic prediction.  With your assessment, if Bush were to pick up a state like Iowa, then Bush would win 271-267.  Squeaker Indeed.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: minionofmidas on November 01, 2004, 04:29:22 AM
My final:
Kerry 274, picking up NH and OH.
Bush 264, picking up WI.
This is actually based on weighted poll averages - but skewed by 1.5 points towards Kerry. Otherwise OH, IA and NM would all be Bush country, and now who would want to see that!? ;)

Very realistic prediction.  With your assessment, if Bush were to pick up a state like Iowa, then Bush would win 271-267.  Squeaker Indeed.
Yeah, either of those three would be enough for Bush...then again, if I skew it an additional point, we pick up FL and hold WI, too. .)


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: KerryAlva on November 01, 2004, 04:39:48 AM
My final:
Kerry 274, picking up NH and OH.
Bush 264, picking up WI.
This is actually based on weighted poll averages - but skewed by 1.5 points towards Kerry. Otherwise OH, IA and NM would all be Bush country, and now who would want to see that!? ;)

Very realistic prediction.  With your assessment, if Bush were to pick up a state like Iowa, then Bush would win 271-267.  Squeaker Indeed.
Yeah, either of those three would be enough for Bush...then again, if I skew it an additional point, we pick up FL and hold WI, too. .)

Another very real possibility


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Јas on November 01, 2004, 08:41:44 AM
https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/PREDMAPSP/pe20045213P19.png

Kerry - 289
Bush - 249


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: ?????????? on November 01, 2004, 08:50:25 AM
Lets try to lessen up the chat here and lets see some maps. :)


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Mort from NewYawk on November 01, 2004, 11:01:47 AM
()

This is certainly the most unpredictable election I've ever seen. The last minute Gallup polls notwithstanding, I'm gonna go with Mason-Dixon and my own feelings over the past few months that we'll see weak black turnout for Kerry in the Northeast and MidWest, and a stronger than expected turnout for Bush produced by evangelical churches in suburban and small town churches across the Midwest.

Bush: EV 348  PV 51%
Kerry  EV 190  PV 47%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Hearnes on November 01, 2004, 11:06:33 AM
Kerry-Bush 311-227

Dems picking up Florida, Ohio and New Hampshire


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Nym90 on November 01, 2004, 11:17:35 AM
()

Kerry 272, Bush 266.

Modified only to fix the URL.



Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: 12th Doctor on November 01, 2004, 11:36:39 AM
()

Bush: 306

Kerry: 230

Abstain: 2

Popular:

Bush: 50.9%

Kerry:47.8%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 01, 2004, 11:58:44 AM
Ah... O.K. You guys win. Here they are:

()
()

When the chips are down, the polls make no bloody sense at all.

So instead of a conventional prediction map mine is... different

Basically the prediction map is the most probable (assuming the polls are correct. Oh dear) outcome... well... sort of.

But the *important* map is the confidence map is a shock map: if either candidate wins in any grey state that result would not actually *shock* me. Sure in several cases it's *very* unlikely, but better semi-safe than very, very sorry.
If Kerry wins a Dark Blue State or if Bush wins a Dark Red State I *will* be shocked.
Hence the name "shock map".

Oh yes... EV totals:

Kerry: 271
Bush: 266
Robb: 1 (well... he *is* an egomaniac...)

Popular Vote:

Kerry: 50%
Bush: 49.5%
Other: 0.5%

Now THAT is a complete guess


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: minionofmidas on November 01, 2004, 12:07:00 PM
Oh, yes -
my shock map is Al's minus Va, Or, and Mi.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 01, 2004, 12:14:55 PM
Oh, yes -
my shock map is Al's minus Va, Or, and Mi.

Great Minds think alike.
So do fools... ;)


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: MHS2002 on November 01, 2004, 12:57:40 PM
()

EV:
Bush 285
Kerry 252
Abstain 1 (WV Elector)

Bush 49.9%
Kerry 48.9%
Others 1.2%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Democratic Hawk on November 01, 2004, 01:17:31 PM
Kerry 291 Bush 247

()

Dave


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 01, 2004, 01:18:59 PM

Still not working.

O.K...
Go to www.freewebs.com
Register a free acount (takes hardly any time at all)
Upload the image
Go to site manager and add it to a webpage (they generate these automatically)
Save webpage.
Do the adress thingy and post the img.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Democratic Hawk on November 01, 2004, 01:26:09 PM
Kerry 291 Bush 247

()

()

Thanks Al

Dave


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Gabu on November 01, 2004, 02:06:15 PM
()

Kerry 272  49.7%
Bush 265  47.5%
Abstain 1


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: classical liberal on November 01, 2004, 02:41:42 PM
Kerry 284 49.1%
Bush 254 50.1%


()


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Bogart on November 01, 2004, 03:24:26 PM
Sen. John Kerry - 242
Pres. George Bush - 296
()
()

Popular

Bush 49%
Kerry 49%
Other 2%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: ElectionAtlas on November 01, 2004, 03:33:47 PM
Note that the prediction section will close tonight at 11pm EST.  This has more to do with massive load tomorrow than with timing of data.

Also - for those of you who haven't linked your forum and Atlas accounts, you can do so at My Atlas (https://uselectionatlas.org/myatlas.php)

This gives you your own customized prediction icon and quick link to your prediction just below your avatar.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: muon2 on November 01, 2004, 03:52:43 PM
I could spend some time debating which poll to go on, but the forum seems to agree that the polls went haywire this weekend. So let's go from the gut.

I posted version 2 on Mar 3 after Kerry was the presumptive nominee. On Aug 21, I posted version 3, changing OR and NM back to Kerry and ME CD2 to Bush. Polls might cause me to switch NM and ME2 back to the Mar 3 prediction, but I've already commented on our collective opinion of those polls. Also, I've missed NM in almost every election I've predicted going back to 1976, so why stop now.

So, I shall blindly ignore the Swift Boat vets, the RNC, the debates, and everyone's final polls. My final call is from Aug 21, 2004. For President: Bush 292, Kerry 246, if electors vote as selected. With an abstemption on each side it becomes Bush 291, Kerry 245. Popular vote: Bush 50%, Kerry 48%, others 2%.

()


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Volrath50 on November 01, 2004, 03:59:23 PM
Final Prediction:
()

Kerry: 299
Bush: 238
Faithless: 1

Popular Vote:
Bush: 49.2
Kerry: 48.8


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: angus on November 01, 2004, 04:02:56 PM
muon2
I like your prediction, except for Iowa and NM.  I'll assume you don't buy into the Albuquerque News poll of bush +3, and another recent poll with Bush +4. 

I think Bush wins too, but gets fewer actual votes than Kerry, since the plurality will go to the challenger.  that's always fun  ;)

we'll see...


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: riceowl on November 01, 2004, 05:32:27 PM
I'm boring!!!

()

Bush - 295
Kerry - 242
1 fe


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: lidaker on November 01, 2004, 06:45:27 PM

Well, it's not about being funny.

()

Bush 296
Kerry 242

PV:
Bush 49,5%
Kerry: 49,2%
Other: 1,3%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: riceowl on November 01, 2004, 07:02:56 PM
huzzah for identical predictions..?


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Akno21 on November 01, 2004, 07:05:18 PM
()

Kerry/Edwards 277
Bush/Cheney 261

Kerry/Edwards 48.9%
Bush/Cheney 48.7%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: The Vorlon on November 01, 2004, 08:20:23 PM


Final Update by 12.00 Noon Tomorrow - Likely sooner


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Beefalow and the Consumer on November 01, 2004, 08:37:24 PM
Because, like, 20 people have the exact same prediction I have, I'm flipping OH to Kerry, and going against every instinct in my body and flipping PA to Bush.

Gotta be unique...

()

Bush 297 (or 296 with 1 FE)
Kerry 241


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Alcon on November 01, 2004, 08:38:38 PM


Final Update by 12.00 Noon Tomorrow - Likely sooner

Vorlon - can't you get a place to upload this stuff? Your images are always broken. :(


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on November 01, 2004, 08:39:37 PM
Well here is my final prediction.
()
Kerry 289
Bush 268
McCain 1

Edwards 289
Cheney 269

My gut tells me that all that early voting in Florida is going to help Kerry more than the polls have predicted.  Wisconsin was very borderline and that is the state I see as likliest to be plagued with lawyers after the election, particularly if I got Florida wrong so that it determines who wins all by its lonesome.  The one vote for McCain is from the faithless WV elector who will try to mend fences while still doing what he said he would do by staying with the ticket for the VP race.  Save for some of the percentages, it's the same map (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=11590.msg260265#msg260265) as sgpine has way back on page 1 of this thread.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: © tweed on November 01, 2004, 08:50:06 PM
()

Bush 286
Kerry 252


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Nation on November 01, 2004, 09:33:56 PM
()


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Firefly on November 01, 2004, 09:37:23 PM
I don't know how to post a pic, but you can find my prediction at the following link.

Link to Prediction (http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=12123)

Kerry- 331
Bush- 207


Edited by Dave Leip to place url in bbcode


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Beefalow and the Consumer on November 01, 2004, 09:40:05 PM


Final Update by 12.00 Noon Tomorrow - Likely sooner

Vorlon - can't you get a place to upload this stuff? Your images are always broken. :(

http://www.imageshack.us

Never once has failed me.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: ElectionAtlas on November 01, 2004, 09:52:53 PM
Since the Prediction are closed starting at 11pm EST tonight (about an hour from this post), I've uploaded a not-yet-final version of the ev calculator that includes maps with percentages.  you can play with it here (https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/evcalc5.php?pop_per=1)
Dave


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: No more McShame on November 01, 2004, 10:02:09 PM
Link to Prediction (https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/PREDMAPSP/pe20044252P10.png)

Edited by Dave Leip to place link in bbcode


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: WMS on November 01, 2004, 10:04:18 PM
()

As I stated in the main thread on predictions, it's the final one. Very close, and it won't be decided until very late.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: No more McShame on November 01, 2004, 10:16:02 PM
Bush 305 (50.4%)
Kerry 232 (48.5%)
Abstain 1

Link to map on previous post.  Forgot PV numbers.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: WMS on November 01, 2004, 10:21:48 PM
Link to map above, on my previous post. Also forgot the bloody percentages.

Bush 49%
Kerry 48%
Badnarik 1%
Nader 1%
Others 1%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: KerryAlva on November 01, 2004, 10:28:40 PM
https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=step3

This is my Final Answer


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: KerryAlva on November 01, 2004, 10:30:48 PM
https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=step3

This is my Final Answer

 If this link doesn't work, you can go view it by searching for BushAlva Version 11.

The map shows Kerry sweeping the Big 3 and Little 3


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Platypus on November 01, 2004, 10:32:33 PM
On my map i forgot to give NE percentages, cos its stuck down at the bottom-I predict all over 60% Bush. Also I didn't hear about the faithless West Virginian until half an hour ago, so 269-268. No coverage of him/her in our news.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Nation on November 01, 2004, 10:52:21 PM
Percentages:

Kerry - 48%
Bush - 48%
Nader - 1%
Badnarik - 2%
Other - 1%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: TheOldLine on November 01, 2004, 10:54:45 PM
I'm not quite sure how to post replies, but my final prediction is Bush 290.

Take the 2000 map, Kerry picks up OH and NH.

Bush picks up NM, IA, WI, MN, and HI.

TheOldLine


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Erc on November 01, 2004, 10:56:47 PM
4 minutes until the 2004 Prediction Map closes forever...


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Reds4 on November 01, 2004, 11:00:27 PM
I will go with Kerry 272 Bush 266
popular vote: Kerry 49.4% Bush 48.9%  (I hope so badly that I am wrong!!!)


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Sam Spade on November 01, 2004, 11:02:59 PM
Prediction: Bush 50.07, Kerry 47.93, Nader 0.93, Other 1.07

Bush wins EV 307-231 for Kerry.

Bush takes New Mexico, Iowa, Hawaii, and Michigan from Kerry (I am entitled to a little weirdness)

Kerry takes New Hampshire from Bush.

Closest state:  Wisconsin, won by Kerry by 0.08%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Erc on November 01, 2004, 11:15:49 PM
What's up with this:

Quote
  Step 2: 2004 Presidential Predictions: Enter Predictions
 
Predictions for the 2004 Presidential Election are now Closed.

Scores will be posted on Wednesday, November 3 and updated as election results are finalized.


Scores...?  So there's a nice official thingymabobby theoretcially?


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: nclib on November 02, 2004, 12:00:09 AM
Prediction: Kerry 48.91, Bush 48.12, Nader 1.1, Other 1.87

Kerry wins EV 274-264 for Bush.

Kerry takes New Hampshire and Ohio from Bush.

Bush takes Wisconsin from Kerry.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: freedomburns on November 02, 2004, 03:16:05 AM
Since the Prediction are closed starting at 11pm EST tonight (about an hour from this post), I've uploaded a not-yet-final version of the ev calculator that includes maps with percentages.  you can play with it here (https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/evcalc5.php?pop_per=1)
Dave

Hey Dave, you aren't going to post a prediction?  Come on man.  I'd like to see how you'd call it.


freedomburns


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Gustaf on November 02, 2004, 03:58:39 AM
()

Bush wins big...unsure of MN and MI, but this is mostly gut feeling. Bush wins PV something like 2-3 points.

Bush: 51%

Kerry: 48%

Nader+others: 1%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on November 02, 2004, 04:00:52 AM
Kerry 279 - Bush 259

Kerry flips NH and FL
Bush flips IA and NM


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on November 02, 2004, 04:46:42 AM
Kerry 279 - Bush 259

Kerry flips NH and FL
Bush flips IA and NM

I have search all the pages of this thread and I can't find a prediction  matching mine.  Why is my prediction unique?  What is so hard about believing Kerry could flip NH and FL while Bush flips IA and NM?


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: A18 on November 02, 2004, 04:51:16 AM
Ohio is more likely to flip, IMHO


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: freedomburns on November 02, 2004, 04:52:35 AM
Kerry 279 - Bush 259

Kerry flips NH and FL
Bush flips IA and NM

I have search all the pages of this thread and I can't find a prediction  matching mine.  Why is my prediction unique?  What is so hard about believing Kerry could flip NM and FL while Bush flips IA and NM?

That is an excellent prediction jmfcst.  It could very well be correct in my estimation.  We shall see.  Maybe as soon as eighteen hours from now.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: apricot on November 02, 2004, 05:44:28 AM
Kerry 299
Bush 239


PV
Kerry 49.5
Bush 49.0
Nader 1.0
others 0.5

Can't seem to get my map added even though it's on the prediction page.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: A18 on November 02, 2004, 05:45:54 AM
Here it is:

()


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: apricot on November 02, 2004, 06:29:49 AM
thanks :-)


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: minionofmidas on November 02, 2004, 07:26:24 AM
Kerry 279 - Bush 259

Kerry flips NH and FL
Bush flips IA and NM

I have search all the pages of this thread and I can't find a prediction  matching mine.  Why is my prediction unique?  What is so hard about believing Kerry could flip NH and FL while Bush flips IA and NM?
Simple, really. We all know that's exactly what's going to happen. None of wants you to lose his title as Master Predictor.
:)


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on November 02, 2004, 08:01:59 AM
Kerry 279 - Bush 259

Kerry flips NH and FL
Bush flips IA and NM

I have search all the pages of this thread and I can't find a prediction  matching mine.  Why is my prediction unique?  What is so hard about believing Kerry could flip NH and FL while Bush flips IA and NM?
Simple, really. We all know that's exactly what's going to happen. None of wants you to lose his title as Master Predictor.
:)

You can't take the title from the champ by a tie, you've got to knock him out! ;)


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: minionofmidas on November 02, 2004, 08:05:55 AM
Yeah, but a tie looks bad on your record anyways.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on November 02, 2004, 08:43:05 AM
Yeah, but a tie looks bad on your record anyways.

LOL! "Ties" on a champs record are called "split-decisions".

I'm just shocked that no one is in agreement with me since I don't think my prediction is very far fetched.  Why does FL have to be safer for Bush than Ohio...?  Doesn't really make sense to me.

But, of course, I hope I am wrong.  I would gladly trade my title for a Bush victory....That said, I am at peace with my prediction, it is what I think (all wishing aside) is going to happen.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: © tweed on November 02, 2004, 08:44:49 AM

Oh yeah PV numbers.

Bush 50.0
Kerry 49.0
Other 1.0%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Nym90 on November 02, 2004, 09:13:49 AM
Kerry 279 - Bush 259

Kerry flips NH and FL
Bush flips IA and NM

I have search all the pages of this thread and I can't find a prediction  matching mine.  Why is my prediction unique?  What is so hard about believing Kerry could flip NH and FL while Bush flips IA and NM?
Simple, really. We all know that's exactly what's going to happen. None of wants you to lose his title as Master Predictor.
:)

It's not that it's an unrealistic projection, but most people who have Kerry winning Florida think that he will win Ohio as well; the conventional wisdom is that Bush is doing better in Florida than in Ohio.

The economy is much better in Florida than in Ohio; I think that's a large reason why people are assuming that. We'll see what happens; it should be a fun ride. I have plenty of highly caffinated beverages ready.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 02, 2004, 09:38:43 AM
We'll see what happens; it should be a fun ride. I have plenty of highly caffinated beverages ready.

I'm thinking of getting a few hours sleep in this afternoon (bloody 5 hour time difference...) and watch the results come in.
With lot's of coffee.

Or I might listen to it on the radio... problem is when I did that with the Canadian Elections I fell alseep a few minutes before the Atlantic Results came in :-(
Woke up in time to gloat about the BC results though :-)


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: elcorazon on November 02, 2004, 10:29:35 AM
()

Kerry 316 Bush 222
what the heck.  I'll take a shot that Kerry surges at the end.

Popular vote:

Kerry 49.4%  Bush 48.7%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Rixtex on November 02, 2004, 10:35:26 AM
()

EV
Kerry:  280
Bush:  258

PV
Kerry:  50%
Bush:  49%
Nader:  1%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on November 02, 2004, 10:53:24 AM
()

EV- Bush 276 ; Kerry 262

PV- Bush 50 ; Kerry 48 ; Other 2


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: hotpprs on November 02, 2004, 12:00:54 PM

A map from the Prediction page..not from the caculator.


The prediction page won't accept any updates.
I wanted to change Colorado to Bush, New Mexico to Kerry, and Ohio to Bush.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Democratic Hawk on November 02, 2004, 12:36:42 PM

This map represents an average of state polls taken on the Sunday of each week since the DNC.

I have not taken into account any third candidates and have assumed that undecideds will split by 2 to 1 in Kerry's favour.

Alabama: Bush 59 Kerry 41
Alaska: Bush 61 Kerry 39
Arizona: Bush 53 Kerry 47
California: Bush 44 Kerry 56
Colorado: Bush 50.5 Kerry 49.5
Connecticut: Bush 43 Kerry 57
Delaware: Bush 44 Kerry 56
D.C.: Bush 13 Kerry 87
Florida: Bush 49.8 Kerry 50.2
Georgia: Bush 57 Kerry 43
Hawaii: Bush 44 Kerry 56
Idaho: Bush 62 Kerry 38
Illinois: Bush 42 Kerry 58
Indiana: Bush 57 Kerry 43
Iowa: Bush 49 Kerry 51
Kansas: Bush 60 Kerry 40
Kentucky: Bush 57 Kerry 43
Louisiana: Bush 55 Kerry 45
Maine: Bush 47 Kerry 53
Maryland: Bush 44 Kerry 56
Massachusetts: Bush 35 Kerry 65
Michigan: Bush 46 Kerry 54
Minnesota: Bush 47.5 Kerry 52.5
Mississippi: Bush 59 Kerry 41
Missouri: Bush 51 Kerry 49
Montana: Bush 59 Kerry 41
Nebraska: Bush 64 Kerry 36
Nevada: Bush 50.5 Kerry 49.5
New Hampshire: Bush 48 Kerry 52
New Jersey: Bush 46 Kerry 54
New Mexico: Bush 48 Kerry 52
New York: Bush 39 Kerry 61
North Dakota: Bush 62 Kerry 38
Ohio: Bush 50.2 Kerry 49.8
Oklahoma: Bush 62 Kerry 38
Oregon: Bush 47 Kerry 53
Pennsylvania: Bush 48 Kerry 52
Rhode Island: Bush 38 Kerry 62
South Carolina: Bush 56 Kerry 44
South Dakota: Bush 56 Kerry 44
Tennessee: Bush 54 Kerry 46
Texas: Bush 59 Kerry 41
Utah: Bush 70 Kerry 30
Vermont: Bush 42 Kerry 58
Virginia: Bush 52 Kerry 48
Washington: Bush 46 Kerry 54
West Virginia: Bush 50.2 Kerry 49.8
Wisconsin: Bush 49.8 Kerry 50.2
Wyoming: Bush 69 Kerry 31

I'm anticipating that Nader's vote will be negligible.

I'm no pollster so I guess a margin of error on my state predictions of 4%

Dave


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on November 02, 2004, 12:40:06 PM
You guys left NC off that list...


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Democratic Hawk on November 02, 2004, 12:42:16 PM

Oops so I have, North Carolina: Bush 53 Kerry 47

Dave


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Reignman on November 02, 2004, 04:23:59 PM
()

Kerry 291
Bush 247


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Huckleberry Finn on November 02, 2004, 05:57:35 PM
It seems that I'm not able to add the map, but here is my prediction.

Bush over 60:
Wyoming, Utah, Idaho

Bush over 55:
Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana, Kentucky, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Alaska

Bush over 50
North Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee

Bush wins but gets less than 50
West Virginia, Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, Colorado, Arizona

Kerry wins but gets less than 50
Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada

Kerry over 50
Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon

Kerry over 55
Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland
Illinois, California, Washington, Hawaii

Kerry over 60
Massachusetts, Rhone Island, New York, D.C


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: minionofmidas on November 03, 2004, 06:41:41 AM
AND THE WINNER IS...
(well assuming there's no more funny stuff going on in IA, NM or OH)
MHS2002! 51 outta 51!
May the Drooling-on begin!
Tied 2nd places to Nation and Boss Tweed who also posted correct maps but later.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: MHS2002 on November 03, 2004, 10:09:52 AM
AND THE WINNER IS...
(well assuming there's no more funny stuff going on in IA, NM or OH)
MHS2002! 51 outta 51!
May the Drooling-on begin!
Tied 2nd places to Nation and Boss Tweed who also posted correct maps but later.

I think John Ford has the same prediction as me...


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: minionofmidas on November 03, 2004, 02:34:22 PM
AND THE WINNER IS...
(well assuming there's no more funny stuff going on in IA, NM or OH)
MHS2002! 51 outta 51!
May the Drooling-on begin!
Tied 2nd places to Nation and Boss Tweed who also posted correct maps but later.

I think John Ford has the same prediction as me...
No, he has Hawai'i wrong.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: MHS2002 on November 03, 2004, 02:45:42 PM
AND THE WINNER IS...
(well assuming there's no more funny stuff going on in IA, NM or OH)
MHS2002! 51 outta 51!
May the Drooling-on begin!
Tied 2nd places to Nation and Boss Tweed who also posted correct maps but later.

I think John Ford has the same prediction as me...
No, he has Hawai'i wrong.

Yep, you're right, didn't see that there. Now I just hope I can win the CNN showdown game and win the HDTV.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: © tweed on November 03, 2004, 03:05:10 PM

Perfection on the map


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: The Duke on November 03, 2004, 03:45:25 PM
Damn my faith in Hawai'ians!


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: MODU on November 03, 2004, 03:51:53 PM

*Loves the fact that people are using the ' in Hawai'i*

You make an old haole boy happy!  hahaha


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Blue Rectangle on November 03, 2004, 04:08:04 PM
I overestimated Bush in the EC: WI, NH and ME-2, but those were all very close.

I underestimated Bush in the PV: +2.5%.

What I can't figure is how Bush broke +3% in the PV but came close to losing the EV.  His numbers in CA and NY, for instance, were not that much higher this year, so where did all those votes go?

Edit:
NY shows Kerry's margin was 500,000 votes less than Gore's, so that accounts for some of the difference in the PV.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: muon2 on November 03, 2004, 05:54:07 PM
I think it is not a question of NY and CA as much as what hapened in the South and Mountain West. Bush drew substantially better in the  "hard R" states, probably due to the total lack of resources spent there by Kerry. This generated more votes for Bush without moving any states into his column. A similar pattern existed in 1976, where for a while there was some thought that Ford might beat Carter in the EC while Carter's strength in the South gave him an easy PV victory.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: The Duke on November 03, 2004, 09:30:51 PM
Part of it was that the GOP had a precinct captain in every state, no matter how safe, while the Dems only had a ground game in battlegrounds.  The Republicans got turnout to even at 37%-37% and a lot of it came from having a real ground game in rural counties in safe GOP states.

I noticed early in the night that Bush had outperformed in Idniana versus where he was in 2000.  He beat his old mark by 5% or so.  This is the result fo rove's use of the internet.  it was Rove, not Dean and Trippi, who ahve learned what the itnernet means for politics.  It is best used as a mode of organizing, not persuading or fundraising.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: WMS on November 03, 2004, 09:52:59 PM
Let's see...

Missed OH, WI, and Maine CD-2. Not too bad, all things considered.

Got NM right, and I got *why* Bush won it as well, which makes me happy. :D

Question: where can I get results for Maine's (and Nebraska's, BTW) Presidential Vote by Congressional District? I'm having a hard time finding that data...


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Nation on November 07, 2004, 04:20:34 PM
49/50 states, while missing Bush's PV% big time. I really shouldn't have overestimated the third party support, ugh.

Either way, I'm happy. 49 is pretty good.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Huckleberry Finn on November 07, 2004, 05:20:41 PM
It seems that I'm not able to add the map, but here is my prediction.

Bush over 60:
Wyoming, Utah, Idaho

Bush over 55:
Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana, Kentucky, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Alaska

Bush over 50
North Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee

Bush wins but gets less than 50
West Virginia, Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, Colorado, Arizona

Kerry wins but gets less than 50
Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada

Kerry over 50
Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon

Kerry over 55
Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland
Illinois, California, Washington, Hawaii

Kerry over 60
Massachusetts, Rhone Island, New York, D.C

I predicted 19 states correctly.

Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, , Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Maryland, Vermont, Massachusetts and D,C

My best line was Kerry over 50 (less than 55) I predicted all six right.

And I predicted the right winner in 45 states. I was over-optimistic, because I did my prediction during the voting. I thought that the high turnout would have helped Kerry.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: A18 on December 25, 2004, 09:37:15 PM
I want to change my prediction map one more time:

()

There. That's my final prediction.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Democratic Hawk on December 30, 2004, 06:30:22 AM

I made three wrong predictions: Florida, Iowa and New Mexico

Dave


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: 2952-0-0 on January 02, 2005, 03:07:25 AM
I want to change my prediction map one more time:

()

There. That's my final prediction.
If you want to cheat by presenting the election results as your prediction you should use the electoral calculator.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: 2952-0-0 on January 02, 2005, 03:32:32 AM
Going through technical difficulties. Please stand by...


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: 2952-0-0 on January 02, 2005, 03:36:51 AM
The white states...

Bush 70+
UT

Bush 60+
ID, WY, TX, OK, MS, AL, IN, KS, NE, NE1, NE2

Bush 40+
WI, NV

Kerry 40+
NH, ME2, IA

Kerry 60+
NY, MA, RI, CT, VT

Kerry 80+
DC

Can someone make a map for me?


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Alcon on January 02, 2005, 03:43:20 AM
()
Kerry 276
Bush 262
Bush faithless 1 (the WV elector)

Popular vote
Kerry 49%
Bush 48%
Nader 2%
Other 1%



There ya go. I have a feeling Nebraska's first two districts were accidental.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: 2952-0-0 on January 02, 2005, 03:50:39 AM
Confidence:
()
Percentage:
()
Kerry 276
Bush 261
Bush faithless 1 (the WV elector)

Popular vote
Kerry 49%
Bush 48%
Nader 2%
Other 1%


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: 2952-0-0 on January 02, 2005, 03:52:48 AM
Thanks, Alcon. And yes, Nebraska was a typo.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: The Vorlon on January 26, 2005, 04:49:59 PM
I got only two states "wrong" - in the sense that I fundementally had the race projected incorrectly.

I though Bush had a legit shot in Minnesota, I figured it was basically dead even in that state.  - I was wrong.

Kerry ended up winning Minnesota by about 3.48%, so I'll take my lumps on Minnesota.

Kerry also carried Michigan by only 3.42% - I firgured Kerry was up 4-6% or so, so I missed in Michigan too.  I had the right winner, by I did indeed have the state fundementally pegged wrong.

I also technically got Iowa and Wisconsin "wrong" -  I actually had both states as basically dead even, which they were (both states were within 1%) but to be fair, I did call both of these states for the wrong guy.

I basically nail the big three however, I had Bush up by 4=>6 in Florida and it was actually 5%, and I had Bush up maginally in Ohio, and Kerry up marginally in Pennsylvania

Also, the "Battleground" state of New Jersey came in at Kerry + 6.68%, pretty darn close to my projection of Kerry by about 8% or so.

I got Iowa and Wisconsin wrong in 2000 as well... 

Of the 4 states I missed (Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota) are all grouped together geographically...


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: © tweed on September 11, 2005, 07:29:22 PM

I have taken JMF's title as master election predictor.  I got all 51 states right, and only 2 senate races wrong (AK and NC).

Onward to 2006.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Alcon on September 11, 2005, 08:21:23 PM

I have taken JMF's title as master election predictor.  I got all 51 states right, and only 2 senate races wrong (AK and NC).

Onward to 2006.

...But you did horribly with shading, and that's what matters!

It does!


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Defarge on September 12, 2005, 07:58:00 PM
The shading! The shading!


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: © tweed on September 12, 2005, 08:12:51 PM
Shading is crap.  Seriosuly I paid little attention to it over the last 2 months or so.  I called all the states correctly--that's what matters.


Title: Re: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest
Post by: Ben. on September 13, 2005, 12:38:44 PM


Which means 59 GOP Senators :(

Thankfull I don't buy it, sorry Boss but this far out we're likely to have at least one pickup next fall, and the other races seem to be comming together nicely for us :) well as good as can be expected from a pretty poor hand.