Talk Elections

Has anybody changed any of their state predictions, and if so... why?

vorlon:  im quite curious as to why you have nm, wisc, and iowa in the gop category?

you seem to know a lot about polling.  where/how did you gain your knowledge?

I have moved Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Iowa to Bush.  I think Kerry's glow is starting to fade as the primaries have ended and Bush is now starting to hit back and run campaign ads.  I think Bush has the following in his favor:

-The Iraq situation has stabilized and democracy is setting in.  It will be difficult for Kerry to attack him here.

-Terrorist attacks will continue to happen.  The Bush team will hammer the point home that we need a president who understands this is a war, not a law enforcement issue.

-The economy is fundamentally in good shape and job growth is slowly but steadily taking place.  We are in the beginning stages of long, sustained expansion.

-I believe people are already becoming disenchanted with Kerry.  Even hard core Liberals that I know don't like the guy.  He's not a good stump speaker, always has a scowl on his face, offers no optimism.  This will hurt him down the stretch as people compare him to Bush.  Edwards is a far superior campaigner.  

-Cash.  Bush cannot be matched here.  After Labor Day he is going to literally carpet bomb the airwaves.  

I am becoming increasingly optimistic that Bush has taken their best shot and is still standing.  Kerry will get a bump when he picks his VP but it will fade I think.

In the next few weeks if we see polls in PA, OH, IA, WI,NM,FL,WV placing Bush within the margin of error, I think Kerry will lose in November barring unforseen circumstances.  The polls showing Bush basically tied in PA at this point should scare Kerry big time.

     

I agree Iowa and NM are fairly likely to switching to Bush, but Wisconsin will come after Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and perhaps Oregon depending on how Nader does. Wisconsin had a high turnout primary, and they hate Bush more than they did in 2000. I disagree with the changes. But NM, is about the most likely to change.

I predicted in November 2003 that Bush would win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Iowa, and nothing has changed since then to change my mind. The dynamics of the race have essentially stayed the same since the 2002 elections.

I don't expect anything to change until November. The world has become so predictable.

I was just watching CNN Headline News.  On the crawl at the bottom of the screen I saw that John Kerry, according to the AP, has official gotten enough delegates to be the nominee.  Beyond that, this story hasn't gotten any press coverage whatsoever that I've seen.  Now that Kerry won't be getting any more free, positive press coverage, he'll start fading in the polls.

Everybody's been saying that this is going to be a close race.  I still don't see it that way.  I think Bush could win by 8-10 points.

Don't change 'em.  That's my game.  Vorlon's game is more serious, though.  Following the polls and such.  I respect that.  Glad to see that the march13th update finally materialized.  But it's chickensheet, because you left three of them blank.  I this material won't merit an A.

"I'm just being honest."
        --Outkast

Vorlon I’m going to have to quibble with your  calling of these states for while these states you mention where close that does not mean they will be so this time around, not least because Bush in 2004 is not the same candidate as Bush in 2000, Kerry is not Gore and Nader is not so much a factor….but I digress here’s my assessment of the states you mention plus NM…

Iowa
Gore: 48.54%
Bush: 48.22%
Nader: 2.23%

IMHO, Iowa is the most likely Bush pickup after New Mexico the closeness of the result last time and a number of other factors give Bush an edge but not a commanding advantage…however the state certainly leans to the GOP this time around.  

Minnesota  
Gore: 47.91%
Bush: 45.50%
Nader: 5.20%

The events of 2002 would suggest that the state was trending dramatically to the GOP, I am not so sure the senate election was closer than it seemed and the Democrats committed a number of blunders not least the “Wellstone Memorial” that alienated voters (I really feel sorry that Mondale lost, would have been great to have him back in the senate) and added to this in the Gubernational race the Republicans only really won thanks in large part to the independent liberal candidacy of Timothy Penny who gained 16% which threw the election to the GOP. Taking into account these factors the 2002 results no longer seem to denote a radical shift in MN leanings and combined with the massive Nader vote (really a Le Duke vote IMHO) last time which will largely vote for Kerry this time around should make MN a definite Dem leaning state and I would expect the Dem majority to be much stronger than last time. And finally as with Oregon environmental issues are very important in MN and Bush just cant run on his handling of the environment and there is a definite risk that liberal republicans in the state who voted for Bush in 2000 and see the environment as a big issue might well stay home or even vote for the Libertarians.  
         
Wisconsin:
Gore: 47.83%
Bush: 47.61%
Nader: 3.62%

Not a Massive Nader vote but sufficient to suggest that Nader’s supporters would have made Gore much safer in the state, having said that Buchanan’s rather pitiful showing if transferred to Bush would have won the state for Bush (had Nader still run). Looking at the 2002 results the Dems took the Governorship and still dominate the congressional delegation as was shown in their primary the local party appears highly energised and while the state could go either way I would argue that it strongly leans to the Dems.  

Oregon:
Gore: 46.96%
Bush: 46.52%
Nader: 5.04%

Looking at the closeness between Gore’s and Bush’s voter totals it may seem absurd when I say I have no worries that the Dems will carry the state, however it is important to remember that Oregon is a state where environmental issues have a high priority and as in MN Bush cannot compete when it comes to environmental issues and combine this with the likelihood that Nader’s vote this time will be much smaller than in 2000 and further more that Oregon’s elected officals are overwhelmingly democratic (only one Republican senator and representative) and that a high voter turnout in the urban conurbations such as Portland, Salem and Newport all of which tend democratic is very likely I would be very surprised where Bush to win the state.

New Mexico:

Gore: 47.91%
Bush: 47.85%
Nader: 3.55%        

Bush’s policy on immigrations (and a use the word policy lightly here) together with his assiduous courting of the Hispanic vote should help gain this state however I would imagine that it will be once again close if not very close as the 3.5% who voted Nader may very well vote for Kerry this time around. However it must be said that at this point NM is leaning GOP as much as WI or MN are leaning to the Dems but probably more than IA is leaning to Bush (but I still expect both IA and NM in the end to go over to the GOP).  

I change my predictions all the time... :P

Ok... I've called em' all.. happy now..? :)

Though all Nader voters won't go to Kerry, etc most will. Look at the match-up polls that are done where people are asked how they would vote in a Kerry-Bush race and then in a Kerry-Bush-Nader race.

I just revised mine.

()

Bush 282
Kerry 256

OH switches to Kerry, and PA and NV switch to Bush.

You keep changing it all the time...

I don't think Minnesota is trending GOP.  I think it's trending centrist.

The difference in votes between Mondale & Coleman was 1%.  Don't remind me about the Wellstone Memorial gaffe.  The memorial was going along fine... there was no politics at all... then disaster struck.  One of Wellstone's sons took the stage.  Let's just say his speech caused The Body to walk out of the Metrodome in disgust...

Tim Penny->Independence Party
Independence Party->Reform Party of Minnesota (formerly)

I'm not sure about his views, though.

And WHY DOES EVERYONE INSIST THAT IT WAS THE LADUKE FACTOR?  I had never heard of her.  She never served in any public office (IIRC).  I think it's the Ventura Factor.  People 'got used' to voting for a 3rd party.  They also agreed with the Green Party positions, most notably the environment (it's big here).  

Another big issue is education, as Minnesota has one of the best public school systems in the country.  Thus, you don't hear much of anything about cutting education funding.  Last year, we had a 4.56 billion dollar budget deficit.

All in all, I would give Minnesota to Kerry.  But that's just me :)

Sorry Gustaf I think you misinterpreted.  Vorlon did not.  Change is no problem.  Some are changers some aren't.

???

I just pointed out that he's flipped his calls around some. H ehad Kerry winning a few days ago, and now he hasn't.

Nader polled stronger in Northern Minnesota than the rest of the state.

Little town of just a few miles north of the Superior lakeshore, in huge Saint Louis county, is where I spend almost every Christmas from as far as I can remember till around 17.  It's a bastion of the religious left.  No doubt Nader polls strong there.  Also no doubt anti-Nader brownshirts will be out in full intimidating force.  MoveOn dot org has no shortage of contributors in that little part of the world.

I don't see hwo you can say MN isn't trending GOP, it went from being one of the most liberal states in the union (the only state to go dem in 1984), to being a near tossup this year.  If bush does win Minnesota, it will be the first time that has happened since Nixon won it in 1972.

Well, to be fair it was Mondale's home state in 1984, but still, you have a point. It voted for Humphrey in 1968 as well.

It eas Mondale home state

I just said that. :)

when I post it wasn't there. but you beat me

Its still has a bias to the left. 53-46.5 with Nader and Buccanan included.

Still, it's the only state that went for him.

I was rooting for the 50-state sweep.

Just like I beat you on the polls! :D ;)

It's moving right, which isn't saying much.  It's just going centrist.  I don't see any signs of it moving to the right site of the spectrum


DFL|-----------|-----------|GOP
       ^         ^ ^

It was at the left, it's now towards the middle.  I can't see it going any more right of the 3rd arrow, which, when crossed, would mean it's trending GOP.

Do you see Minnesota as going for Kerry or Bush, based on crossovers in your area, ilikeverin?

Kerry.  There are probably a few liberal Republicans here, and also disenfranchised Nader voters who now hate Bush with a vengeance!  (like me :P)

Will the Nader vote, vote for Nader or Kerry?

Some diehards will vote for Nader, but the soccer moms (I saw quite a few of them at the Nader rally I went to!) will probably vote Kerry.

Influence them to vote for Kerry, we need to work to get out the vote.

Well, I didn't know them personally... just my mom :)

The rally was huge, though, so I couldn't see everyone.  The Target Center was getting pretty full...

Yes, I did change my map a bit, that would be why they are called "revised" predictions.

Bush has firmed up a lot in the underlying numbers this week, so I have taken it from a very narrow Kerry win to a very narrow Bush win...

There are realy about 10 states that are too close to call right now...

Next week, I'll likely change back... :)

Enjoy & have a great day!

I was only kidding, I understand that you revised your map, etc. I am going to bed, so good night... :P

Here  are  the only possible combinations I find likely for the upper midwest:

Bush wins all 3 (Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota)
Bush wins Minnesota and Iowa
Kerry wins Wisconsin and Minnesota
Kerry wins all three


Iowa has the highest likelihood of voting for Bush, and Wisconsin has the least. I think Vorlon's prediction of Iowa and Wisconsin for Bush and Minnesota for Kerry will not happen.

Here's something that you have to consider about PA and MN.  Older voters in both of these states treand heavily Democratic.  They are the New Deal generation,  never voted Republican in thier lives.  How many of these people have died since 2000?  Quite a few I'd be willing to bet.  In the mean time, young voters in both of these states treand heavily Republican.  That's bound to make a diffence in this election.

Wait a minute.... you were watching CNN?

I really don’t think that younger voters in either to these two states as a rule tend heavily towards the GOP if you look at the elected officials from both of these states (MN and PA) they are generally moderates from both party’s (Santorum and Wellstone being the exceptions)…as a rule I’d say that the DNC has an advantage amongst younger voters as a whole however amongst those who are actively involved in politics perhaps the GOP does have an advantage however I doubt it…. Sadly I cannot find any break down of either state’s recent voting to see how younger voters are actually voting but despite this I find it unlikely that the younger generation “trends heavily” towards the GOP in recent years it is true that the decline in the popularity of the GOP amongst younger voters has indeed been reversed however this does not translate into these voters as a whole trends strongly to the GOP…I find it more likely that in states such as PA, MI and MN the Dem vote in November will actually increase as blue-collar workers who have suffered under Bush and especially steel workers (who where a significant factor in Bush’s support in PA, OH, WV and MI) will vote for Kerry while many moderates who voted for Bush as a “compassionate conservative” may well vote for the Dems this time around and of course it is important not to forget that most (and I would imagine that it will be most) of the Nader Supporters from 2000 will further bolster Kerry by voting Dem this time around…so far from these states young populations tipping the advantage to the GOP I would imagine these states will return as even more strongly Dem than in 2000….

Here are my predictions for some of the close states:

Minnesota will be a dead heat again, but I'm predicting 2004 to be the last presidential election for the next few year to go Democrat.  Kerry wins, barely.  Kerry also wins Oregon, again barely, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

Bush wins Iowa, New Mexico, Florida, and Ohio.  I also think Bush will barely win Pennsylvania, but it'll be close.  I think Bush would lose Pa if Kerry (or someone else like him--Dean) was not the Dem nominee.

Everything depends on how quickly Bush can label Kerry as just another Massachusetts liberal.  Once he does that, and the public catches on to it, Kerry's numbers will drop.

Younger voters particularly the 25 and under strata are more democratic. This is not true in the bible belt, and the small isolated states out west.

I'm reading this article right now.
http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/99aug/9908genx2.htm

Didn’t the Republicans constantly try and tarr Clinton as a “Liberal”…hum…didn’t seem to work did it?...and remember that Clinton’s Platform in 1992 was fairly liberal http://gopher.udel.edu/htr/Psc105/Texts/demoplat.html#2 I think it unlikely that the old “liberal Democrat” slur will have little effect this time around as it is seen by many as something that no longer instils fear and dread in peoples hearts…I also think it highly unlikely that PA will swing to the GOP…check my past post for the reasons coz I just can’t be arsed to post them yet again but trust me come election night PA will go Dem even more solidly than it did in 2000…as for that matter will MI and expect an increase in the Dem vote in WV and OH…but the I’m biased as are you…maybe we should just leave prediction to the independents on the board but then again where would be the fun in that?... I  love bias…    

According to the Almanac of American politics, voters between 30-45 voted 50%-46% for Bush.  That's heavily for PA.  Also, I know for a fact that since 2001 the Republicans have out registered Dems in this state by nearly 3-1,  I also believe that since motor voter was enacted in 1998 Republicans have out registered Dems by 2-1 over-all in the state.  Another possitive sign for Republicans in this state is that Gore only carried Catholics by a 50%-46% and the Democrat lead amoung that group i this state has been declining consideribly since 1976.  By comparison, New Dealers, currently the largest voting bloc in PA voted 60%-35% for Gore.  These people are dying off rapidly.

As for Minnesota, the self-destruction of the DFL has left the Democrats as lame ducks in large areas Minnesota.  Also, as the Almanac state 'If the major metro movement toward the Democrats in the 1990's so visible on the coasts was was less visible in Minnesota, the counter vailing rural movement toward Republicans was even more prominent.  The result is that Minnesota must been counted as very competitive in the next CLOSE presidential race'.  In the next CLOSE presidential race, MN must be counted as competitive.  This means that if Bush wins the PV by more than say, 3% chances are that he will win Minnesota and I would have to say that even if Bush losses the race, he still has a 40% chance of carrying Minnesota.  If Bush wins, he will win Minnesota.

I see this in my school in the rare time we talk current events in SS.  Kids who go to church, almost all conservative (and have some of the more laughable things you'll ever hear to say), kids who dont go to church (like me) very liberal.  They don't know that, they just are.  

Kids with parents from an Ivy league school in my district have Republican parents. Kids who go on an excess of vacations, and go to Patriots games have Republican parents. I know that is not a fair litmus test, but here it is the educates versud the overwealthy.

The DFL is self-destructing?

That's news to me.

I find it so annoying that the major parties have made deals with other parties, and must still recognize themselves as still part of the farmers labor party. ND has the Democratic Non-Partisan League. I don't see how you can name a political party as a non-partisan league. Oh well, it hasn't had much success.

Well then you must be the last to hear about it.

I last changed mine on 3/5 when Kerry became the presumptive nominee after Super Tuesday. I expect I'll wait until Kerry names his VP to update the map again.

Vorlon, I'm also fascinated that other than OR and WV, your new map matches my map of 3/5. I do agree with you on the possibility of IA and WI, but not MN going to Bush.

Depending on your perspective.. it's either "great minds think alike" or "Fools rarely differ".. :)