Talk Elections

Colin Powell finally gives into the draft effort and runs for President, easily defeating his less then impressive opponents in the primaries for the Republican nomination...How does the election go?

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474-64

Not a Powell fan?  Powell beat Clinton in the polls in '96.

A black moderate Republican wasn't going to beat Clinton in 1996.

It's funny how you predicted that Eugene McCarthy would have won against Nixon in 1968 because polls showed him in the lead, and yet when it's a politician you dislike, you predict that they would lose, regardless of what polls showed/show.

Bill Clinton would've done nothing but play the race card because that's all he's ever known how to do. Remember South Carolina in 2008? He compared Obama winning that state to Jesse Jackson winning it. He only plays the race card and would've portrayed Powell as the black candidate for the black people.

No way Clinton loses to Powell. The entire south would have voted democrat for the first time since 1976.

Sorry, there's absolutely no comparison between the two scenarios.

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Clinton wins 318-220. Clinton had about 55% approvals in late 1996, and a President with those kinds of approvals has about a 90% chance of getting reelected.

He would have won but still would only have played the race card.

Well there's at least one, which i pointed out.

Powell landslide:

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Yes, Clinton had ~55% approval ratings, but Powell must have had ~90% approval among voters. He might well win D.C. on his reelection bid.

That depends.  How racist were people in 1996?

There was absolutely ZERO chance of Pete Wilson winding up on a Republican ticket in 1996. For one thing, Wilson was pro-choice, and while the GOP was less hostile to pro-choicers in the 1990s, had Powell won the nod, he would have needed a pro-lifer.

More importantly, though, Wilson was HORRIFICALLY UNPOPULAR in 1996. So unpopular that the Dole ticket avoided him like the plague. Polls showed Dole doing WORSE in CA had he picked Wilson. In fact Wilson was so unpopular that the Californian Bob Dole DID consider for the ticket was Dan Lungren, who was then the CA Attorney General.

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Clinton/Gore--419 EV's
Powell/McCain--119 EV's

Due to Powell's posistion has a economic liberal, non-interventionist, and social moderate the south swings toward Clinton (as does Colorado and Montana). 

Bob Dole is also a non-interventionist, and Powell, while liberal on some issues, is more conservative than Clinton, so I think not.

But Powell wouldn't be able to excite the party's conservative, southern wing.  Less Evangelical turnout means that several states (MS, AL, GA) come into play for Clinton. 

I didn't know Bob Dole excited anyone . . .

I didn't know he alienated anyone either...

While Bob Dole might not have "excited" the Evangelical base, they still had no reason not to vote for him.  The same is not true with Colin Powell. 

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512 - 26

Why?