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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/State Elections => Topic started by: Frodo on August 07, 2010, 02:30:27 PM



Title: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Frodo on August 07, 2010, 02:30:27 PM
Does anyone see any state legislatures within the next couple of years changing hands by the time district boundaries are redrawn? 


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Sam Spade on August 07, 2010, 03:00:43 PM
Does anyone see any state legislatures within the next couple of years changing hands by the time district boundaries are redrawn? 

I'm sure a number of state legislatures will change hands this year.  And the districts are redrawn after this year.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 07, 2010, 03:20:29 PM
I did a ranking of legislatures on SSP a while back, here it is (with a few minor alterations):


Dem-held chambers

Lean Republican takeover

Indiana House (Currently 52/48)
Pennsylvania House (Currently 104/99)

Tossup

Alabama Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 60/45)
Iowa House (Currently 56/44)
Montana House (Currently 50/50)
New Hampshire Senate (Currently 14/10) and House (Currently 223/176)
New York Senate (Currently 32/30)
North Carolina Senate (Currently 30/20) and House (Currently 68/52)
Ohio House (Currently 53/46)
Wisconsin Senate (Currently 18/15) and House (Currently 52/46/1)

Lean Democratic

Colorado Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 37/27/1)
Delaware House (Currently 24/17)
Iowa Senate (Currently 32/18)
Maine Senate (Currently 20/15)

Likely Democratic

Michigan House (Currently 66/43)
Nevada Senate (Currently 12/9)
Oregon Senate (Currently 18/12) and House (Currently 36/24)

Safe Democratic

Arkansas Senate (Currently 27/8) and House (Currently 72/28)
California Senate (Currently 25/14) and House (Currently 49/29/1)
Connecticut Senate (Currently 24/12) and House (Currently 114/37)
Delaware Senate (Currently 15/6)
Hawaii Senate (Currently 23/2) and House (Currently 45/6)
Illinois Senate (Currently 37/22) and House (Currently 70/48)
Kentucky House (Currently 65/35)
Maine House (Currently 95/55/1)
Maryland Senate (Currently 33/14) and House (Currently 104/36/1)
Massachusetts Senate (Currently 34/4) and House (Currently 144/16)
Minnesota Senate (Currently 46/21) and House (Currently 87/47)
Nevada House (Currently 28/14)
New Mexico House (Currently 45/25)
New York House (Currently 106/42/2)
Rhode Island Senate (Currently 33/4/1) and House (Currently 69/6)
Vermont Senate (Currently 22/7/1) and House (Currently 94/48/8)
Washington Senate (Currently 31/18) and House (Currently 61/37)
West Virginia Senate (Currently 26/8) and House (Currently 69/31)

-----

R held chambers

Lean Republican

Alaska Senate (Currently 10/10) and House (Currently 18/22)
Michigan Senate (Currently 16/22)
Montana Senate (Currently 23/27)

Likely Republican

Kentucky Senate (Currently 17/20/1)

Safe Republican

Arizona Senate (Currently 12/18) and House (Currently 24/36)
Florida Senate (Currently 14/26) and House (Currently 44/75)
Georgia Senate (Currently 22/34) and House (Currently 74/105/1)
Idaho Senate (Currently 7/28) and House (Currently 18/52)
Indiana Senate (Currently 17/33)
Kansas House (Currently 49/76)
Missouri Senate (Currently 11/23) and House (Currently 74/89)
North Dakota Senate (Currently 21/26) and House (Currently 35/58)
Ohio Senate (Currently 12/21)
Oklahoma Senate (Currently 22/26) and House (Currently 39/62)
Pennsylvania Senate (Currently 20/30)
South Carolina House (Currently 52/72)
South Dakota Senate (Currently 14/21) and House (Currently 24/46)
Tennessee Senate (Currently 14/19) and House (Currently 48/50/1)
Texas Senate (Currently 12/19) and House (Currently 73/77)
Utah Senate (Currently 8/20) and House (Currently 22/53)
Wyoming Senate (Currently 7/23) and House (Currently 19/41)

-----

N/A

Kansas Senate - not up in 2010
Louisiana Senate/House - not up in 2010
Mississippi Senate/House - not up in 2010
Nebraska Unicameral - nonpartisan
New Jersey Senate/House - not up in 2010
New Mexico Senate - not up in 2010
South Carolina Senate - not up in 2010
Virginia - not up in 2010


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Bo on August 07, 2010, 05:55:08 PM
Can someone please do a map (either before or after the elections) to show which party is going to control the redistricting process in which states? Thank you.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Mr.Phips on August 07, 2010, 07:07:53 PM
I did a ranking of legislatures on SSP a while back, here it is (with a few minor alterations):


Dem-held chambers

Lean Republican takeover

Indiana House (Currently 52/48)
Pennsylvania House (Currently 104/99)

Tossup

Alabama Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 60/45)
Iowa House (Currently 56/44)
Montana House (Currently 50/50)
New Hampshire Senate (Currently 14/10) and House (Currently 223/176)
New York Senate (Currently 32/30)
North Carolina Senate (Currently 30/20) and House (Currently 68/52)
Ohio House (Currently 53/46)
Wisconsin Senate (Currently 18/15) and House (Currently 52/46/1)

Lean Democratic

Colorado Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 37/27/1)
Delaware House (Currently 24/17)
Iowa Senate (Currently 32/18)
Maine Senate (Currently 20/15)

Likely Democratic

Michigan House (Currently 66/43)
Nevada Senate (Currently 12/9)
Oregon Senate (Currently 18/12) and House (Currently 36/24)

Safe Democratic

Arkansas Senate (Currently 27/8) and House (Currently 72/28)
California Senate (Currently 25/14) and House (Currently 49/29/1)
Connecticut Senate (Currently 24/12) and House (Currently 114/37)
Delaware Senate (Currently 15/6)
Hawaii Senate (Currently 23/2) and House (Currently 45/6)
Illinois Senate (Currently 37/22) and House (Currently 70/48)
Kentucky House (Currently 65/35)
Maine House (Currently 95/55/1)
Maryland Senate (Currently 33/14) and House (Currently 104/36/1)
Massachusetts Senate (Currently 34/4) and House (Currently 144/16)
Minnesota Senate (Currently 46/21) and House (Currently 87/47)
Nevada House (Currently 28/14)
New Mexico House (Currently 45/25)
New York House (Currently 106/42/2)
Rhode Island Senate (Currently 33/4/1) and House (Currently 69/6)
Vermont Senate (Currently 22/7/1) and House (Currently 94/48/8)
Washington Senate (Currently 31/18) and House (Currently 61/37)
West Virginia Senate (Currently 26/8) and House (Currently 69/31)

-----

R held chambers

Lean Republican

Alaska Senate (Currently 10/10) and House (Currently 18/22)
Michigan Senate (Currently 16/22)
Montana Senate (Currently 23/27)

Likely Republican

Kentucky Senate (Currently 17/20/1)

Safe Republican

Arizona Senate (Currently 12/18) and House (Currently 24/36)
Florida Senate (Currently 14/26) and House (Currently 44/75)
Georgia Senate (Currently 22/34) and House (Currently 74/105/1)
Idaho Senate (Currently 7/28) and House (Currently 18/52)
Indiana Senate (Currently 17/33)
Kansas House (Currently 49/76)
Missouri Senate (Currently 11/23) and House (Currently 74/89)
North Dakota Senate (Currently 21/26) and House (Currently 35/58)
Ohio Senate (Currently 12/21)
Oklahoma Senate (Currently 22/26) and House (Currently 39/62)
Pennsylvania Senate (Currently 20/30)
South Carolina House (Currently 52/72)
South Dakota Senate (Currently 14/21) and House (Currently 24/46)
Tennessee Senate (Currently 14/19) and House (Currently 48/50/1)
Texas Senate (Currently 12/19) and House (Currently 73/77)
Utah Senate (Currently 8/20) and House (Currently 22/53)
Wyoming Senate (Currently 7/23) and House (Currently 19/41)

-----

N/A

Kansas Senate - not up in 2010
Louisiana Senate/House - not up in 2010
Mississippi Senate/House - not up in 2010
Nebraska Unicameral - nonpartisan
New Jersey Senate/House - not up in 2010
New Mexico Senate - not up in 2010
South Carolina Senate - not up in 2010
Virginia - not up in 2010


I think the New York Senate actually leans Democratic.  To win control, Republicans would have to win seats that Obama won with 60%+ of the vote unless they sweep the three competitive Dem held seats(Foley, Aubertine, and Stakowski) and Frank Padavan survives against a highly popular local Democratic Councilman in a 66% Obama district in Queens. 


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: You kip if you want to... on August 07, 2010, 07:58:09 PM
I did a ranking of legislatures on SSP a while back, here it is (with a few minor alterations):


Dem-held chambers

Lean Republican takeover

Indiana House (Currently 52/48)
Pennsylvania House (Currently 104/99)

Tossup

Alabama Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 60/45)
Iowa House (Currently 56/44)
Montana House (Currently 50/50)
New Hampshire Senate (Currently 14/10) and House (Currently 223/176)
New York Senate (Currently 32/30)
North Carolina Senate (Currently 30/20) and House (Currently 68/52)
Ohio House (Currently 53/46)
Wisconsin Senate (Currently 18/15) and House (Currently 52/46/1)

Lean Democratic

Colorado Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 37/27/1)
Delaware House (Currently 24/17)
Iowa Senate (Currently 32/18)
Maine Senate (Currently 20/15)

Likely Democratic

Michigan House (Currently 66/43)
Nevada Senate (Currently 12/9)
Oregon Senate (Currently 18/12) and House (Currently 36/24)

Safe Democratic

Arkansas Senate (Currently 27/8) and House (Currently 72/28)
California Senate (Currently 25/14) and House (Currently 49/29/1)
Connecticut Senate (Currently 24/12) and House (Currently 114/37)
Delaware Senate (Currently 15/6)
Hawaii Senate (Currently 23/2) and House (Currently 45/6)
Illinois Senate (Currently 37/22) and House (Currently 70/48)
Kentucky House (Currently 65/35)
Maine House (Currently 95/55/1)
Maryland Senate (Currently 33/14) and House (Currently 104/36/1)
Massachusetts Senate (Currently 34/4) and House (Currently 144/16)
Minnesota Senate (Currently 46/21) and House (Currently 87/47)
Nevada House (Currently 28/14)
New Mexico House (Currently 45/25)
New York House (Currently 106/42/2)
Rhode Island Senate (Currently 33/4/1) and House (Currently 69/6)
Vermont Senate (Currently 22/7/1) and House (Currently 94/48/8)
Washington Senate (Currently 31/18) and House (Currently 61/37)
West Virginia Senate (Currently 26/8) and House (Currently 69/31)

-----

R held chambers

Lean Republican

Alaska Senate (Currently 10/10) and House (Currently 18/22)
Michigan Senate (Currently 16/22)
Montana Senate (Currently 23/27)

Likely Republican

Kentucky Senate (Currently 17/20/1)

Safe Republican

Arizona Senate (Currently 12/18) and House (Currently 24/36)
Florida Senate (Currently 14/26) and House (Currently 44/75)
Georgia Senate (Currently 22/34) and House (Currently 74/105/1)
Idaho Senate (Currently 7/28) and House (Currently 18/52)
Indiana Senate (Currently 17/33)
Kansas House (Currently 49/76)
Missouri Senate (Currently 11/23) and House (Currently 74/89)
North Dakota Senate (Currently 21/26) and House (Currently 35/58)
Ohio Senate (Currently 12/21)
Oklahoma Senate (Currently 22/26) and House (Currently 39/62)
Pennsylvania Senate (Currently 20/30)
South Carolina House (Currently 52/72)
South Dakota Senate (Currently 14/21) and House (Currently 24/46)
Tennessee Senate (Currently 14/19) and House (Currently 48/50/1)
Texas Senate (Currently 12/19) and House (Currently 73/77)
Utah Senate (Currently 8/20) and House (Currently 22/53)
Wyoming Senate (Currently 7/23) and House (Currently 19/41)

-----

N/A

Kansas Senate - not up in 2010
Louisiana Senate/House - not up in 2010
Mississippi Senate/House - not up in 2010
Nebraska Unicameral - nonpartisan
New Jersey Senate/House - not up in 2010
New Mexico Senate - not up in 2010
South Carolina Senate - not up in 2010
Virginia - not up in 2010


I think the New York Senate actually leans Democratic.  To win control, Republicans would have to win seats that Obama won with 60%+ of the vote unless they sweep the three competitive Dem held seats(Foley, Aubertine, and Stakowski) and Frank Padavan survives against a highly popular local Democratic Councilman in a 66% Obama district in Queens. 

Let's not forget Cuomo's coattails. He could get up to and exceeding 65% of the vote...


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 08, 2010, 02:22:32 PM
I honestly think Republicans are safe at winning back Indiana. I know of at least three districts that will definitely be flipping over, and that's only in my area. I'm sure there are others statewide.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JoeyJoeJoe on August 09, 2010, 09:10:29 AM
Which ones?  I assume the Vincennes seat is one of them.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 09, 2010, 09:31:38 AM
Which ones?  I assume the Vincennes seat is one of them.
I had Battles in mind for a loss. I'm not sure how well you know your Representatives, but Vern Tincher, who's my representative, is retiring. Bob Heaton (barely lost to Tincher in 2008) is running again and should comfortably win. Nancy Michael is also in some serious trouble, as is Goodin and Blanton. And as far out as it sounds, I think Grubb could face a serious challenge as well from Sharon Negele.

Any other seats you had in mind? I mainly know about Southwest Indiana.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: nclib on August 09, 2010, 09:08:00 PM
Can someone please do a map (either before or after the elections) to show which party is going to control the redistricting process in which states? Thank you.

I made this map (below) a few months ago. According to Johnny's list of the legislative bodies that lean takeover or are toss-up, the following could change.

New York  Democratic -> Split
Indiana Split -> Republican
Pennsylvania Split -> Republican
Alabama Split -> Republican
North Carolina Democratic -> Split or Republican (legislature has more power than Governor)
New Hampshire Democratic -> Split
Ohio Split -> Republican
Wisconsin Split -> Republican

The map below indicates which party will likely control redistricting. I've used the party favored for governor and the current state legislative composition (unless anyone knows any state that is favored to flip).

Red = Democratic
Blue = Republican
Green = split
Gray = non-partisan body (or at-large)

(
)

How will this all play out?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: muon2 on August 09, 2010, 10:50:20 PM
Can someone please do a map (either before or after the elections) to show which party is going to control the redistricting process in which states? Thank you.

I made this map (below) a few months ago. According to Johnny's list of the legislative bodies that lean takeover or are toss-up, the following could change.

New York  Democratic -> Split
Indiana Split -> Republican
Pennsylvania Split -> Republican
Alabama Split -> Republican
North Carolina Democratic -> Split or Republican (legislature has more power than Governor)
New Hampshire Democratic -> Split
Ohio Split -> Republican
Wisconsin Split -> Republican

The map below indicates which party will likely control redistricting. I've used the party favored for governor and the current state legislative composition (unless anyone knows any state that is favored to flip).

Red = Democratic
Blue = Republican
Green = split
Gray = non-partisan body (or at-large)

(
)

How will this all play out?

The map predates the primaries, and doesn't reflect governorships that are polling differently than they did in Jan. It would be handy to update it to reflect those changes as well.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 11, 2010, 03:26:13 PM
Unless the Census data is not as expected for South Carolina, redistricting won't matter federally here.  We'll have two minority majority districts that will go Democratic, and with what remains, I can't see there being anyway to not have the other five districts be at least lean Republican.  At best, a pro-Democratic gerrymander would be able to draw a district that Spratt would have a chance of being reelected in, but which would be expected to go into the hands of GOP if any other Democrat were running.  Since the Senate is not up for grabs, even if a political tsunami hit this State out of nowhere, we're not going to see a Democratic gerrymander.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Bo on August 11, 2010, 04:40:45 PM
Can someone please do a map (either before or after the elections) to show which party is going to control the redistricting process in which states? Thank you.

I made this map (below) a few months ago. According to Johnny's list of the legislative bodies that lean takeover or are toss-up, the following could change.

New York  Democratic -> Split
Indiana Split -> Republican
Pennsylvania Split -> Republican
Alabama Split -> Republican
North Carolina Democratic -> Split or Republican (legislature has more power than Governor)
New Hampshire Democratic -> Split
Ohio Split -> Republican
Wisconsin Split -> Republican

The map below indicates which party will likely control redistricting. I've used the party favored for governor and the current state legislative composition (unless anyone knows any state that is favored to flip).

Red = Democratic
Blue = Republican
Green = split
Gray = non-partisan body (or at-large)

(
)

How will this all play out?

Thanks nclib. It appears that the only states Democrats can really "milk" several seats out of are Illinois and California. I wonder if the Democrats here in CA are actually going to have the balls to be nasty when it comes to redistricting this time around. As for the GOP, I think their gains out of this are going to be minimized because many GOP states where the population is growing quickly have increasing numbers of minorities, and thus either the VRA will require them to make new Democratic (minority) seats, or the GOP legislators will do it themselves out of necessity to protect their current incumbents.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Dgov on August 12, 2010, 05:36:24 PM
Thanks nclib. It appears that the only states Democrats can really "milk" several seats out of are Illinois and California. I wonder if the Democrats here in CA are actually going to have the balls to be nasty when it comes to redistricting this time around. As for the GOP, I think their gains out of this are going to be minimized because many GOP states where the population is growing quickly have increasing numbers of minorities, and thus either the VRA will require them to make new Democratic (minority) seats, or the GOP legislators will do it themselves out of necessity to protect their current incumbents.

Two things: 1) the reason the Democrats don't gerrymander the hell out of California is because the GOP holds 1/3rd of the seats in both houses, and basically says that if the Dems try to do a partisan gerrymander, they'll just shut down the state government.  It's how they've managed to avoid it for the last 30 or so years, despite monolithic Democratic control.

2) Minority growth in Republican states, especially Texas, is going to be a huge boom for the Republicans.  You can draw a 27-9 Republican plan in Texas (Currently 20-12), and still fall completely under VRA rules, creating 2 Hispanic Majority and 2 Black-Majority Districts (assuming they get 4 new seats) without ugly Gerrymandering.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JoeyJoeJoe on August 13, 2010, 09:54:26 AM
Back in the 80s, Phil Burton put a massive Dem gerrymander on the state.  He eliminated at least five GOP seats (Goldwater, Dornan, Grisham, Rousselot, McCloskey) even as the state was gaining two seats.  Probably one of the most effective partisan gerrymanders even.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 13, 2010, 10:56:34 AM
Thanks nclib. It appears that the only states Democrats can really "milk" several seats out of are Illinois and California. I wonder if the Democrats here in CA are actually going to have the balls to be nasty when it comes to redistricting this time around. As for the GOP, I think their gains out of this are going to be minimized because many GOP states where the population is growing quickly have increasing numbers of minorities, and thus either the VRA will require them to make new Democratic (minority) seats, or the GOP legislators will do it themselves out of necessity to protect their current incumbents.

Two things: 1) the reason the Democrats don't gerrymander the hell out of California is because the GOP holds 1/3rd of the seats in both houses, and basically says that if the Dems try to do a partisan gerrymander, they'll just shut down the state government.  It's how they've managed to avoid it for the last 30 or so years, despite monolithic Democratic control.


What monolithic Democratic control are you talking about? In the last 30 years the Republicans have won 5 out of 7 gubernatorial elections.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JoeyJoeJoe on August 13, 2010, 12:19:57 PM
Dems controlled the state government in 1981, which allowed them to create their own map for the 80s.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Dgov on August 13, 2010, 03:20:38 PM
Dems controlled the state government in 1981, which allowed them to create their own map for the 80s.

Texas Democrats have always been the kings of Gerrymandering.  In the 1960s, they were able to draw a 24-0 Map (admitteldy by drawing non-equal population districts), which to this day was the best gerrymander in the country.  They were also extremely effective in the 90s, where they added 3 Safely Democratic seats for a 22-8 Delegation despite the Republicans actually winning the congressional vote.

It's one of the reasons i don't feel any sympathy for the Dems Delay outed in 2003--they were basically only there in the first place because their seats were drawn to be safe.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Dgov on August 13, 2010, 03:24:38 PM
Thanks nclib. It appears that the only states Democrats can really "milk" several seats out of are Illinois and California. I wonder if the Democrats here in CA are actually going to have the balls to be nasty when it comes to redistricting this time around. As for the GOP, I think their gains out of this are going to be minimized because many GOP states where the population is growing quickly have increasing numbers of minorities, and thus either the VRA will require them to make new Democratic (minority) seats, or the GOP legislators will do it themselves out of necessity to protect their current incumbents.

Two things: 1) the reason the Democrats don't gerrymander the hell out of California is because the GOP holds 1/3rd of the seats in both houses, and basically says that if the Dems try to do a partisan gerrymander, they'll just shut down the state government.  It's how they've managed to avoid it for the last 30 or so years, despite monolithic Democratic control.


What monolithic Democratic control are you talking about? In the last 30 years the Republicans have won 5 out of 7 gubernatorial elections.

I was referring more to the state legislature, where the Democrats have held on constantly since the 70s aside from two years after 1994.  The Democrats had complete control of the state government in 2000 IIRC, and instead opted to go for the bipartisan route, mostly because the Republicans basically told them that they'd shut down the government if the Dems tried a partisan Gerrymander.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on August 14, 2010, 11:24:12 AM
I was referring more to the state legislature, where the Democrats have held on constantly since the 70s aside from two years after 1994.  The Democrats had complete control of the state government in 2000 IIRC, and instead opted to go for the bipartisan route, mostly because the Republicans basically told them that they'd shut down the government if the Dems tried a partisan Gerrymander.

My recollection is that the Republicans threatened to put an anti-gerrymandering referendum on the ballot if the Dems went that route, and also that the Dems did so well in 2000 that they thought it better to consolidate their gains than reach for the stars and risk losses.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Torie on August 14, 2010, 11:28:25 AM
It was more to do with the notion that both parties in CA did not really want many swing seats, and trying to go after more GOP seats, would put some of the Dem seats in play. That is my recollection at least.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 14, 2010, 12:00:40 PM
I was referring more to the state legislature, where the Democrats have held on constantly since the 70s aside from two years after 1994.  The Democrats had complete control of the state government in 2000 IIRC, and instead opted to go for the bipartisan route, mostly because the Republicans basically told them that they'd shut down the government if the Dems tried a partisan Gerrymander.

My recollection is that the Republicans threatened to put an anti-gerrymandering referendum on the ballot if the Dems went that route, and also that the Dems did so well in 2000 that they thought it better to consolidate their gains than reach for the stars and risk losses.

Makes sense. Let's remember that back then California wasn't so overwhelmingly Democratic as now.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Frodo on August 22, 2010, 03:17:13 PM
I did a ranking of legislatures on SSP a while back, here it is (with a few minor alterations):


Dem-held chambers

Lean Republican takeover

Indiana House (Currently 52/48)
Pennsylvania House (Currently 104/99)

Tossup

Alabama Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 60/45)
Iowa House (Currently 56/44)
Montana House (Currently 50/50)
New Hampshire Senate (Currently 14/10) and House (Currently 223/176)
New York Senate (Currently 32/30)
North Carolina Senate (Currently 30/20) and House (Currently 68/52)
Ohio House (Currently 53/46)
Wisconsin Senate (Currently 18/15) and House (Currently 52/46/1)

Lean Democratic

Colorado Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 37/27/1)
Delaware House (Currently 24/17)
Iowa Senate (Currently 32/18)
Maine Senate (Currently 20/15)

Likely Democratic

Michigan House (Currently 66/43)
Nevada Senate (Currently 12/9)
Oregon Senate (Currently 18/12) and House (Currently 36/24)

Safe Democratic

Arkansas Senate (Currently 27/8) and House (Currently 72/28)
California Senate (Currently 25/14) and House (Currently 49/29/1)
Connecticut Senate (Currently 24/12) and House (Currently 114/37)
Delaware Senate (Currently 15/6)
Hawaii Senate (Currently 23/2) and House (Currently 45/6)
Illinois Senate (Currently 37/22) and House (Currently 70/48)
Kentucky House (Currently 65/35)
Maine House (Currently 95/55/1)
Maryland Senate (Currently 33/14) and House (Currently 104/36/1)
Massachusetts Senate (Currently 34/4) and House (Currently 144/16)
Minnesota Senate (Currently 46/21) and House (Currently 87/47)
Nevada House (Currently 28/14)
New Mexico House (Currently 45/25)
New York House (Currently 106/42/2)
Rhode Island Senate (Currently 33/4/1) and House (Currently 69/6)
Vermont Senate (Currently 22/7/1) and House (Currently 94/48/8)
Washington Senate (Currently 31/18) and House (Currently 61/37)
West Virginia Senate (Currently 26/8) and House (Currently 69/31)

-----

R held chambers

Lean Republican

Alaska Senate (Currently 10/10) and House (Currently 18/22)
Michigan Senate (Currently 16/22)
Montana Senate (Currently 23/27)

Likely Republican

Kentucky Senate (Currently 17/20/1)

Safe Republican

Arizona Senate (Currently 12/18) and House (Currently 24/36)
Florida Senate (Currently 14/26) and House (Currently 44/75)
Georgia Senate (Currently 22/34) and House (Currently 74/105/1)
Idaho Senate (Currently 7/28) and House (Currently 18/52)
Indiana Senate (Currently 17/33)
Kansas House (Currently 49/76)
Missouri Senate (Currently 11/23) and House (Currently 74/89)
North Dakota Senate (Currently 21/26) and House (Currently 35/58)
Ohio Senate (Currently 12/21)
Oklahoma Senate (Currently 22/26) and House (Currently 39/62)
Pennsylvania Senate (Currently 20/30)
South Carolina House (Currently 52/72)
South Dakota Senate (Currently 14/21) and House (Currently 24/46)
Tennessee Senate (Currently 14/19) and House (Currently 48/50/1)
Texas Senate (Currently 12/19) and House (Currently 73/77)
Utah Senate (Currently 8/20) and House (Currently 22/53)
Wyoming Senate (Currently 7/23) and House (Currently 19/41)

-----

N/A

Kansas Senate - not up in 2010
Louisiana Senate/House - not up in 2010
Mississippi Senate/House - not up in 2010
Nebraska Unicameral - nonpartisan
New Jersey Senate/House - not up in 2010
New Mexico Senate - not up in 2010
South Carolina Senate - not up in 2010
Virginia - not up in 2010


I saw your post (http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=AF99622B22EB0482A8D48C2E4A482DA0?diaryId=6532) on the Swing State Project blog -when's Part 2 coming out, BTW?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 22, 2010, 03:25:17 PM
A long time ago. (http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6559/the-state-of-the-state-legislatures-part-two-chambers-held-by-republicans)


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Frodo on October 20, 2010, 08:51:07 PM
With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures? 



Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 20, 2010, 08:59:14 PM
With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures? 



Looking at my list from the other month, I'd say that the Republicans run the board as far as the tossups are concerned, except for possibly the New York Senate and one/both houses in North Carolina. I'd also bump the Michigan House down to Lean Dem.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Frodo on October 20, 2010, 09:10:23 PM
With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures? 



Looking at my list from the other month, I'd say that the Republicans run the board as far as the tossups are concerned, except for possibly the New York Senate and one/both houses in North Carolina. I'd also bump the Michigan House down to Lean Dem.

Do you expect Republicans to make gains in both houses of the North Carolina legislature, even if they don't win either house outright?  This is the South, after all, and in a year like this I fully expect them to run strongest in this region, from congressional to gubernatorial to state legislative races. 


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 20, 2010, 09:24:09 PM
With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures?  



Looking at my list from the other month, I'd say that the Republicans run the board as far as the tossups are concerned, except for possibly the New York Senate and one/both houses in North Carolina. I'd also bump the Michigan House down to Lean Dem.

I generally agree.  I actually expect Democrats to narrowly hold the Iowa House(where there are some open Republican seats in very Democratic areas).  I think Republicans get the North Carolina Senate, but fall just short in the House and for Democrats to barely hold the New York State Senate(losing one net seat for a 31-31 tie that is broken by Cuomo's LG).  Democrats might the Alabama House, but Im unsure.  Another possibility is the Wisconsin Senate. 


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 21, 2010, 06:09:14 AM
With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures? 



Looking at my list from the other month, I'd say that the Republicans run the board as far as the tossups are concerned, except for possibly the New York Senate and one/both houses in North Carolina. I'd also bump the Michigan House down to Lean Dem.

Do you expect Republicans to make gains in both houses of the North Carolina legislature, even if they don't win either house outright?  This is the South, after all, and in a year like this I fully expect them to run strongest in this region, from congressional to gubernatorial to state legislative races. 

Absolutely, I'm just not sure whether they can win both houses. They recruited candidates for every Dem seat in the Senate but left several House seats uncontested.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 21, 2010, 07:40:14 PM
With the primaries finished, and with less than two weeks until election day, is anyone changing their predictions with regard to state legislatures? 



Looking at my list from the other month, I'd say that the Republicans run the board as far as the tossups are concerned, except for possibly the New York Senate and one/both houses in North Carolina. I'd also bump the Michigan House down to Lean Dem.

Do you expect Republicans to make gains in both houses of the North Carolina legislature, even if they don't win either house outright?  This is the South, after all, and in a year like this I fully expect them to run strongest in this region, from congressional to gubernatorial to state legislative races. 

Absolutely, I'm just not sure whether they can win both houses. They recruited candidates for every Dem seat in the Senate but left several House seats uncontested.

I think they will probably win the Senate. 


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: nclib on October 27, 2010, 09:52:46 PM
Can someone please do a map (either before or after the elections) to show which party is going to control the redistricting process in which states? Thank you.

I made this map (below) a few months ago. According to Johnny's list of the legislative bodies that lean takeover or are toss-up, the following could change.

New York  Democratic -> Split
Indiana Split -> Republican
Pennsylvania Split -> Republican
Alabama Split -> Republican
North Carolina Democratic -> Split or Republican (legislature has more power than Governor)
New Hampshire Democratic -> Split
Ohio Split -> Republican
Wisconsin Split -> Republican

The map below indicates which party will likely control redistricting. I've used the party favored for governor and the current state legislative composition (unless anyone knows any state that is favored to flip).

Red = Democratic
Blue = Republican
Green = split
Gray = non-partisan body (or at-large)

(
)

How will this all play out?

The map predates the primaries, and doesn't reflect governorships that are polling differently than they did in Jan. It would be handy to update it to reflect those changes as well.

I've shifted several states that now clearly favor one party or the other. The rest I've kept as is.

Red = Democratic
Blue = Republican
Green = split
Gray = non-partisan body (or at-large)

(
)


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: rob in cal on October 28, 2010, 04:20:21 PM
Concerning California, if Prop 20 passes and Prop 27 goes down to defeat, the citizens commission will be drawing all districts, so full Dem control of Gov and legislature is less important.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Dgov on October 28, 2010, 09:11:18 PM
Concerning California, if Prop 20 passes and Prop 27 goes down to defeat, the citizens commission will be drawing all districts, so full Dem control of Gov and legislature is less important.

Actually, that will be an interesting process to watch.  Given that prop 20 has some provisions about maintaining income hegemony within their districts, it might actually be very similar to the current map.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Free Palestine on October 28, 2010, 09:22:35 PM
Concerning California, if Prop 20 passes and Prop 27 goes down to defeat, the citizens commission will be drawing all districts, so full Dem control of Gov and legislature is less important.

Actually, that will be an interesting process to watch.  Given that prop 20 has some provisions about maintaining income hegemony within their districts, it might actually be very similar to the current map.

That's a retarded provision to have.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: DrScholl on October 28, 2010, 09:40:03 PM
I think the income hegemony provision is to assure compactness. It wasn't a Congressional district, but in the previous redistricting for the State Senate had a district run from Compton to Rancho Palos Verdes, which was done only to neutralize a Republican leaning area.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Dgov on October 28, 2010, 09:41:42 PM
Concerning California, if Prop 20 passes and Prop 27 goes down to defeat, the citizens commission will be drawing all districts, so full Dem control of Gov and legislature is less important.

Actually, that will be an interesting process to watch.  Given that prop 20 has some provisions about maintaining income hegemony within their districts, it might actually be very similar to the current map.

That's a retarded provision to have.

Yeah it is.  But i'd still much rather take that power from the legislature.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Frodo on November 02, 2010, 11:27:13 PM
The GOP has just taken the Alabama legislature (http://blog.al.com/live/2010/11/republicans_historic_alabama_majority.html) as well as the North Carolina Senate (http://www2.journalnow.com/news/2010/nov/02/republicans-win-majority-nc-senate-ar-506371/).  The North Carolina House may follow suit as well. 


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Frodo on November 02, 2010, 11:48:04 PM
Republicans have just taken over both houses of the North Carolina legislature (http://www.wect.com/Global/story.asp?S=13434773).  Only Arkansas and West Virginia withstand the GOP surge in the South.



Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 02, 2010, 11:49:53 PM
How are the Republicans doing in key redistricting states like OH, PA?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: J. J. on November 03, 2010, 12:00:34 AM
How are the Republicans doing in key redistricting states like OH, PA?

In PA, they had the Senate by a fair amount and were about 5 seats short in the House.  I've heard they took the House, big time.

The GOP will be redistricting PA. 

Edit:  The GOP was down by 3 in the State House, 100-103.  I don't have the numbers but I've heard they gained control.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 03, 2010, 12:20:27 AM
Here (http://www.timesonline.com/bct_news/news_details/article/1373/2010/november/03/legislative-races-could-redraw-pas-political-map.html) it says the GOP gained at least 13 Democratic seats in the PA House.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 03, 2010, 02:31:49 AM
How are the Republicans doing in key redistricting states like OH, PA?

In PA, they had the Senate by a fair amount and were about 5 seats short in the House.  I've heard they took the House, big time.

The GOP will be redistricting PA. 

Edit:  The GOP was down by 3 in the State House, 100-103.  I don't have the numbers but I've heard they gained control.

Heh.  Good luck trying to squeeze any more Republican seats out of this state after tonight.  Same with Ohio, where Republicans are going to have to cut one of their own. 


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 03, 2010, 02:36:18 AM
Here (http://www.timesonline.com/bct_news/news_details/article/1373/2010/november/03/legislative-races-could-redraw-pas-political-map.html) it says the GOP gained at least 13 Democratic seats in the PA House.

Wait, DeWeese managed to win? How the frack?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Sam Spade on November 03, 2010, 02:41:38 AM
As posted on another thread, basically every GOP house seat the Dems took in Texas in the last 6 years fell tonight, including, amusingly, Solomon Ortiz, Jr.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 03, 2010, 03:12:21 AM
How are the Republicans doing in key redistricting states like OH, PA?

In PA, they had the Senate by a fair amount and were about 5 seats short in the House.  I've heard they took the House, big time.

The GOP will be redistricting PA. 

Edit:  The GOP was down by 3 in the State House, 100-103.  I don't have the numbers but I've heard they gained control.

Heh.  Good luck trying to squeeze any more Republican seats out of this state after tonight.  Same with Ohio, where Republicans are going to have to cut one of their own. 

I think the object of redistricting will be making the freshman incumbents safer.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 03, 2010, 03:48:07 AM
How are the Republicans doing in key redistricting states like OH, PA?

In PA, they had the Senate by a fair amount and were about 5 seats short in the House.  I've heard they took the House, big time.

The GOP will be redistricting PA. 

Edit:  The GOP was down by 3 in the State House, 100-103.  I don't have the numbers but I've heard they gained control.

Heh.  Good luck trying to squeeze any more Republican seats out of this state after tonight.  Same with Ohio, where Republicans are going to have to cut one of their own. 
I think the object of redistricting will be making the freshman incumbents safer.

Its going to be very difficult to do so in both states. 


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on November 03, 2010, 03:51:48 AM
In California, Measure 20 appears to have passed, taking Congressional redistricting out of the hands of the legislature and giving it to a commission.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 03, 2010, 03:54:21 AM
In California, Measure 20 appears to have passed, taking Congressional redistricting out of the hands of the legislature and giving it to a commission.

Same thing passed in Florida. 


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 03, 2010, 03:57:31 AM
If those results hold, that's probably a net loss for Republicans, who might have got a compromise map out of CA again regardless.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 03, 2010, 06:41:04 AM
These results are a disaster. Republicans have the trifecta in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Probably in FL as well, but luckily the anti-gerrymandering referendum passed.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 03, 2010, 06:48:14 AM
I have seen proposed ideas in Indiana that would basically cut Indianapolis up enough to put Carson in deep danger in 2012. Donnelly also won't be safe, especially if there's a anti-Democratic mood. Visclosky is the only Democrat who should be completely safe from redistricting.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on November 03, 2010, 08:10:06 AM
I've tried to start this thread in the redistricting forum but here's where everyone ie.

These results are a disaster. Republicans have the trifecta in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Probably in FL as well, but luckily the anti-gerrymandering referendum passed.

It's the worst it could have been, but it's not a disaster, outside of Pa. Republicans dominated the process in four of the five states in 2002 and in Indiana they already banked their gains from redistricting yesterday, although they can try to take out Donnelly. He looks like a survivor to me after yesterday.

PA-12 can still be dismantled and they can try to shore up the eastern districts, which is the best possible outcome for them, but they can't preserve their gains.

Ohio Rs have to drop two seats. One of them simply has to be an R seat. I don't see how they easily collapse Toledo, metro Cleveland, Akron, and Youngstown into just 4 seats. They'll try but it will be ugly. On the other hand, they can preserve R hegemony in Cincinnati and Columbus until the next D wave.

I don't see how Michigan gets rid of another D after their masterful job in 2002. Put Peters and Levin together? Does the population support that?

Illinois, on the other hand, will be a huge prize for Dems if Quinn can hold on. There isn't a Democratic representative between Cicero and St. Louis, and Melissa Bean just lost. Republicans drew the map last time.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 03, 2010, 08:25:48 AM
Republican pickups (though not all affect redistricting, of course):

Alabama House and Senate
Colorado House (possibly, NCSL still has it out)
Indiana House
Iowa House
Maine House and Senate
Michigan House
Minnesota House and Senate (WTF?!)
Montana House
New Hampshire House and Senate
North Carolina House and Senate
Ohio House
Pennsylvania House
Wisconsin Assembly and Senate

Oregon's House looks like it'll be thin, it's currently 28-28 with 4 seats left. The Oregon Senate is possibly going to be a 15-15 tie.

Amusingly, it looks like the Republicans are down to only one seat in the Hawaii Senate.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Holmes on November 03, 2010, 09:07:52 AM

Constitutional marriage amendment.

Quote
Maine House and Senate
Minnesota House and Senate
New Hampshire House and Senate

No (more) gay marriage.

Mr. Moderate must be thrilled.

At least with governor Abercrombie, Hawaii looks like it might get it in the near future, even though it has a ridiculously strong Christian lobby.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 03, 2010, 09:11:56 AM
Dems still have the Iowa Senate, although just barely.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Holmes on November 03, 2010, 09:16:26 AM
That means nothing. With the three judges recalled and the House fallen, I'm sure there will be two Democrats that will waffle.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on November 03, 2010, 09:27:44 AM
That means nothing. With the three judges recalled and the House fallen, I'm sure there will be two Democrats that will waffle.

The question is whether the Democratic leader of the senate lets it come up for a vote.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 03, 2010, 09:35:36 AM
Quote
Maine House and Senate
Minnesota House and Senate
New Hampshire House and Senate

No (more) gay marriage.

Mr. Moderate must be thrilled.

Oh yes, I'd been clinking my glass all night long.

Don't hate.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: J. J. on November 03, 2010, 09:43:46 AM
How are the Republicans doing in key redistricting states like OH, PA?

In PA, they had the Senate by a fair amount and were about 5 seats short in the House.  I've heard they took the House, big time.

The GOP will be redistricting PA. 

Edit:  The GOP was down by 3 in the State House, 100-103.  I don't have the numbers but I've heard they gained control.

Heh.  Good luck trying to squeeze any more Republican seats out of this state after tonight.  Same with Ohio, where Republicans are going to have to cut one of their own. 

They will be eliminating one seat, and I doubt if it will be Fitzpatrick.  ;)

Two seats are out there, currently, that could be GOP, PA-12 and PA-4.  The could probably get one more GOP seat in SWPA (with redistricting and a good year).

I'm wondering if PA-13 might be the eliminated district.  Westmoreland County is rapidly turning into East Prussia.    Since I grew up there, I'll have to change my screen name to J von J.  :)


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on November 03, 2010, 09:45:48 AM
I'm wondering if PA-13 might be the eliminated district.  Westmoreland County is rapidly turning into East Prussia.    Since I grew up there, I'll have to change my screen name to J von J.  :)

You can't eliminate two Philadelphia districts in two successive redistrictings. The population doesn't support it.

A district in the west has to go. Likely PA-12. But I am curious what they'll do in the northeast and southeast. Maybe they can clean up PA-6.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Sam Spade on November 03, 2010, 09:49:26 AM
I'm wondering if PA-13 might be the eliminated district.  Westmoreland County is rapidly turning into East Prussia.    Since I grew up there, I'll have to change my screen name to J von J.  :)

You can't eliminate two Philadelphia districts in two successive redistrictings. The population doesn't support it.

A district in the west has to go. Likely PA-12. But I am curious what they'll do in the northeast and southeast. Maybe they can clean up PA-6.

Ya, the game is going to be to try and get Altmire and Critz to have to face each other.  Or maybe try and eliminate both, but that's riskier.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: J. J. on November 03, 2010, 09:56:23 AM
I'm wondering if PA-13 might be the eliminated district.  Westmoreland County is rapidly turning into East Prussia.    Since I grew up there, I'll have to change my screen name to J von J.  :)

You can't eliminate two Philadelphia districts in two successive redistrictings. The population doesn't support it.

A district in the west has to go. Likely PA-12. But I am curious what they'll do in the northeast and southeast. Maybe they can clean up PA-6.

In the last one, it was Mascara's district, I think, so that is there they took out the district south of Pittsburgh.

They might be able to lump PA-12 into a strongly Republican district.  You can possibly loose one and flip one (in a good year).

PA House is now 110-112 R, 93-91 D.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 03, 2010, 10:07:06 AM

wut. BRTD how did this happen?!


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on November 03, 2010, 10:15:09 AM

The Minnesota legislature swung very big on national partisan swings all through this decade. I'm not surprised.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 03, 2010, 10:34:31 AM
Yeah there was a lot of close seats, especially in the suburbs. We probably won the popular vote but meh. :(

At least we dodged a serious bullet since Dayton is still ahead. We're facing a mandatory recount, but it won't be another 2008-style debacle because Dayton's lead is much bigger. I'm a little worried about them passing an anti-gay marriage amendment though because Dayton can't veto that...


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Hash on November 03, 2010, 10:38:31 AM
Is there any site with the new seat numbers for each legislature somewhere? MSM sites don't have that.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 03, 2010, 10:41:03 AM
Is there any site with the new seat numbers for each legislature somewhere? MSM sites don't have that.

But of course: http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 03, 2010, 01:13:00 PM
Does anyone knows what happened with New York Senate?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Sam Spade on November 03, 2010, 01:39:02 PM
Does anyone knows what happened with New York Senate?

Still R 30, D 29, 3 undetermined

From the NY Times...

SD 7 - Martins (R) leads Johnson (D) 51-49 (800 votes) with 98% in.  I get the impression most people think Johnson has lost.
SD 37 - Cohen (R) leads Oppenheimer (D) 52-48 with 81% in
SD 60 - Thompson (D) leads Grisanti (R) 50-50 (250 votes) with 99% in.  In the NYT article, they said that both parties expect Grisanti to win, though with these numbers, one wonders


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 03, 2010, 01:50:08 PM
Here (http://www.timesonline.com/bct_news/news_details/article/1373/2010/november/03/legislative-races-could-redraw-pas-political-map.html) it says the GOP gained at least 13 Democratic seats in the PA House.

Wait, DeWeese managed to win? How the frack?

DeWeese 52.5, some republican 47.5

wtf?

Thought the indictment would finally finish him off, but no.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 03, 2010, 03:17:33 PM
Dems dodged a bullet in Missouri -- Republicans came up just short of a 2/3rds majority in the legislature.

Some general state legislative observations:

Reports of the Democrats' demise in West Virginia seem to be premature; they actually gained seats in the State Senate, though they lost a few in the House. Other surprising gains: Democrats appear to have picked up two seats in the Maryland Senate, in Frederick and on the Eastern Shore.

Worst result for the Dems where it doesn't matter: Wyoming Senate, now 26-4 Republican.

Surprisingly, Alaska Senate remains split 10/10.



Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: jimrtex on November 03, 2010, 08:31:20 PM
In California, Measure 20 appears to have passed, taking Congressional redistricting out of the hands of the legislature and giving it to a commission.

Same thing passed in Florida. 
Not hardly.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 03, 2010, 09:39:59 PM
Hilarious that New Hampshire's legislature is about as Republican as Utah's and only behind unambiguously behind Wyoming.

I am also surprised at the the strength of some of other the new Republican majorities. The newly-Republican Alabama Senate is close to a 2/3 majority. For a state that had such large DFL majorities before, Minnesota's Republican majorities are not large but not the razor-thin ones I expected. Maine Senate 60% GOP? I didn't even realise the chamber was considered competitive. (Interestingly, Maine now has a GOP redistricting trifecta, not that it matters much in a state with two districts. Perhaps you could draw an R+1 district?) The Arkansas House, while still majority Democratic, is only 55% from 72% before, and the GOP notoriously failed to nominate candidates that might have won this year.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: muon2 on November 03, 2010, 09:51:31 PM
I've tried to start this thread in the redistricting forum but here's where everyone ie.


I appreciate your attempt. For those on this thread who aren't aware, the Political Geography/Demographics board has been set up to handle redistricting in the states. I have a sticky post (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=126740.0) to point to individual state threads, which currently include OH, PA and VA. I welcome additional threads for other states to add to the list.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Frodo on November 03, 2010, 10:34:30 PM
With the 2010 elections out of the way (for the most part), which of the following chambers does anyone here see switching parties in 2011?

Louisiana Senate (D: 23, R: 16)
Louisiana House (D: 51, R: 50, I: 4)

Mississippi Senate (D: 27, R: 25)
Mississippi House (D: 72, R: 50)

Virginia Senate (D: 22, R: 18)
Virginia House (R: 59, D: 39, I: 2)

New Jersey Senate (D: 23, R: 17)
New Jersey House (D: 47, R: 33)


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on November 03, 2010, 10:40:53 PM
Louisiana House looks like it's definitely going to flip. Virginia Senate is probably 50-50, depends on turnout. Mississippi Senate probably flips as well.

I think both New Jersey house and senate are probably safe.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 03, 2010, 10:50:18 PM
Now that the Republican control the House, Democrats wont be facing the same kind of headwind they are currently facing.  Democrats will probably lose the Louisiana House, but have a good chance to hold everything else.  The one thing to watch is retirements in the Virginia Senate though.  Democrats will likely pick up seats in the Virginia House of Delegates after they were wiped out in 2009.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 03, 2010, 11:03:45 PM
Now that the Republican control the House, Democrats wont be facing the same kind of headwind they are currently facing.  Democrats will probably lose the Louisiana House, but have a good chance to hold everything else.  The one thing to watch is retirements in the Virginia Senate though.  Democrats will likely pick up seats in the Virginia House of Delegates after they were wiped out in 2009.

I think the Presidency is by far the most important factor (given that Democrats controlled Congress from 2006 and it didn't appear to hurt their gains).


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Frodo on November 03, 2010, 11:09:44 PM
Now that the Republican control the House, Democrats wont be facing the same kind of headwind they are currently facing.  Democrats will probably lose the Louisiana House, but have a good chance to hold everything else.  The one thing to watch is retirements in the Virginia Senate though.  Democrats will likely pick up seats in the Virginia House of Delegates after they were wiped out in 2009.

I think the Presidency is by far the most important factor (given that Democrats controlled Congress from 2006 and it didn't appear to hurt their gains).

So you are predicting a continued Southern Republican sweep in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia?

That would make two of us, so far...  


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: J. J. on November 03, 2010, 11:10:03 PM
Here (http://www.timesonline.com/bct_news/news_details/article/1373/2010/november/03/legislative-races-could-redraw-pas-political-map.html) it says the GOP gained at least 13 Democratic seats in the PA House.

Wait, DeWeese managed to win? How the frack?

DeWeese 52.5, some republican 47.5

wtf?

Thought the indictment would finally finish him off, but no.

I don't think DeWeese was indicted.  Perzel was indicted and lost.  You are confusing your corrupt Pennsylvania state reps.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 03, 2010, 11:10:51 PM
Republican pickups (though not all affect redistricting, of course):

Alabama House and Senate
Colorado House (possibly, NCSL still has it out)
Indiana House
Iowa House
Maine House and Senate
Michigan House
Minnesota House and Senate (WTF?!)
Montana House
New Hampshire House and Senate
North Carolina House and Senate
Ohio House
Pennsylvania House
Wisconsin Assembly and Senate

Oregon's House looks like it'll be thin, it's currently 28-28 with 4 seats left. The Oregon Senate is possibly going to be a 15-15 tie.

Amusingly, it looks like the Republicans are down to only one seat in the Hawaii Senate.

"Dems are likely to hold the MI House"

lol

Really I am not surprised. With the GOP gaining double digit numbers in so many states, I had a feeling MI went to complete GOP control. I had a feeling that with the wave, Snyder's margin, and Dem problems both nationwide and in the state, the Dems were in trouble.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 04, 2010, 01:01:50 AM
Can anyone with knowledge of Arkansas politics predict would have happened if the GOP had nominated candidates everywhere? Apparently, they lost all seven contested state Senate races (http://www.wreg.com/news/sns-ap-ar--arkansas-legislature,0,3567967.story). I can't imagine the difference between the strongest contested Democratic seat and the weakest uncontested seat being all that large, so fail for the Arkansas GOP.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 04, 2010, 01:03:43 AM
Considering that the Arkansas Dems currently hold a few seats that even Bill Clinton couldn't win, that is quite epic fail indeed.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 04, 2010, 01:46:24 AM
I presume they won't make the same mistake in 2012. But it might be too late to capitalise on all the good opportunities then.

What's with Arkansas and uncontested races anyway? In 2008, all four House races and the Senate races had no major party opposition. Is there something of a quid pro quo going on with party leaders? Bad recruiting?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on November 04, 2010, 07:03:39 AM
Too early to predict VA Senate without seeing the remap and someone looking at the seats Dems already hold. The current map is an R gerrymander vs. the D Senate was elected in more congenial times for Dems.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 04, 2010, 07:15:32 AM
Can anyone with knowledge of Arkansas politics predict would have happened if the GOP had nominated candidates everywhere? Apparently, they lost all seven contested state Senate races (http://www.wreg.com/news/sns-ap-ar--arkansas-legislature,0,3567967.story). I can't imagine the difference between the strongest contested Democratic seat and the weakest uncontested seat being all that large, so fail for the Arkansas GOP.

They also netted 17 seats in the House, bringing them to 45-55 there, and picked up the three statewide posts they contested. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that the Dems would've been royally screwed if the Republicans managed to put up candidates for more seats. Remember that a lot of Democrats in Arkansas are essentially Republicans anyway, so it probably doesn't change the ideological balance in the legislature, just the partisan balance.

With the 2010 elections out of the way (for the most part), which of the following chambers does anyone here see switching parties in 2011?

Louisiana Senate (D: 23, R: 16)
Louisiana House (D: 51, R: 50, I: 4)

Mississippi Senate (D: 27, R: 25)
Mississippi House (D: 72, R: 50)

Virginia Senate (D: 22, R: 18)
Virginia House (R: 59, D: 39, I: 2)

New Jersey Senate (D: 23, R: 17)
New Jersey House (D: 47, R: 33)

Louisiana goes Republican -- the redistricting committee in the Senate is stacked with Republicans, from what I've heard. It should be just as bad as the rest of the South. So does Mississippi. Heck, I've been predicting both of those for a while now.

Virginia House isn't going to get any better for the Dems; they might win back a few seats they lost in 2009, but redistricting is going to cause them to lose seats elsewhere (SWVA is definitely losing seats, I'm hearing that Hampton Roads will lose one as well). The Senate is tough, because there's literally no seat left that they have a chance at picking up, even before redistricting; 2007 was their best shot at winning seats, and the three or four that they came close to winning but missed are just too Republican for them to have any chance at in 2011. Republicans, on the other hand, need 2 seats to win control, and there are plenty of tempting targets: Phil Puckett, John Miller, Edd Houck, Roscoe Reynolds, Mark Herring, and George Barker.

No idea on New Jersey.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 04, 2010, 07:48:49 AM
I'm guessing Arkansas Republicans extrapolated too much from Beebe's popularity.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 04, 2010, 07:56:03 AM

This is probably the right answer here, because the 2011 elections will take place under a completely new set of lines.

My early prediction is this -- with Governor Christie's popularity what it is, we're probably looking at a relatively "status quo" election cycle, with GOP benefiting from a new-found ability to raise money and Democrats benefiting from being out of power (at least in Drumthwacket).

From there, it all depends on whether the independent commission draws a more favorable set of GOP lines. (The current set favors Democrats.) A few GOP-friendly line changes in Middlesex, Mercer, South Jersey could swing control of the chambers almost immediately.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 04, 2010, 08:35:12 AM
I don't think DeWeese was indicted.  Perzel was indicted and lost.  You are confusing your corrupt Pennsylvania state reps.

You sure? I'll accept my memory on this isn't likely to be brilliant as I only pick things up to do with the laughable world of state politics in Pennsylvania occasionally, but that article described him as a 'criminal defendant'.

Hilarious, either way.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: nhmagic on November 04, 2010, 01:05:22 PM
Hilarious that New Hampshire's legislature is about as Republican as Utah's and only behind unambiguously behind Wyoming.

I am also surprised at the the strength of some of other the new Republican majorities. The newly-Republican Alabama Senate is close to a 2/3 majority. For a state that had such large DFL majorities before, Minnesota's Republican majorities are not large but not the razor-thin ones I expected. Maine Senate 60% GOP? I didn't even realise the chamber was considered competitive. (Interestingly, Maine now has a GOP redistricting trifecta, not that it matters much in a state with two districts. Perhaps you could draw an R+1 district?) The Arkansas House, while still majority Democratic, is only 55% from 72% before, and the GOP notoriously failed to nominate candidates that might have won this year.

Yes they could draw an R+1 district in ME, itd look funny and would cost Obama an electoral vote in 2012.

Also, NHs legislature is now veto proof, so technically not a trifecta, but Lynch doesnt really have a say in anything.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2010, 01:46:45 PM
Yes they could draw an R+1 district in ME, itd look funny and would cost Obama an electoral vote in 2012.

Also, NHs legislature is now veto proof, so technically not a trifecta, but Lynch doesnt really have a say in anything.

Remember - even an R+1 district leaned Democratic in 2008.  Why?  THe Cook PVI ratings are based on the 2004 and 2008 AVERAGE margin vs. the national margin, and Bush won in 2004. You'd need the 2012 national mood to meet the 2004 and 2008 average in order for an R+1 district to cost Obama an electoral vote.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: nhmagic on November 04, 2010, 01:49:12 PM
Yes they could draw an R+1 district in ME, itd look funny and would cost Obama an electoral vote in 2012.

Also, NHs legislature is now veto proof, so technically not a trifecta, but Lynch doesnt really have a say in anything.

Remember - even an R+1 district leaned Democratic in 2008.  Why?  THe Cook PVI ratings are based on the 2004 and 2008 AVERAGE margin vs. the national margin, and Bush won in 2004. You'd need the 2012 national mood to meet the 2004 and 2008 average in order for an R+1 district to cost Obama an electoral vote.
Thats true...forgot about that.  Still, it would mean hed have to work for it in that district probably.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: nclib on November 04, 2010, 05:01:03 PM
Maine actually redistricts after the 2012 election. Will any/all legislative seats be up for election in 2012?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: California8429 on November 04, 2010, 05:14:20 PM
Hurray. Republicans won the Colorado House...by 1


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 04, 2010, 05:18:33 PM
Um... why?

---

Edit: ah... now, this makes no sense. Because 'SkillandChance' has deleted his post. But he expressed delight at the narrow margin in the Colorado House and said that it would mean the Democrats going for CO-3 as at least one Republican would vote for their plan. He provided no evidence of this, so I asked the question above. Rather than actually answer the question, he deleted the post that prompted it.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 04, 2010, 05:25:18 PM

They also won two of the three row offices or whatever they are called (AG Suthers won reelection and the SOS went Repub). Who is leading in the Treasurer race, has it been called yet? Green Papers says no.

GOP did well down ballot in CO comparative to the Senate and Governor elections.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 04, 2010, 05:31:55 PM
Um... why?

---

Edit: ah... now, this makes no sense. Because 'SkillandChance' has deleted his post. But he expressed delight at the narrow margin in the Colorado House and said that it would mean the Democrats going for CO-3 as at least one Republican would vote for their plan. He provided no evidence of this, so I asked the question above. Rather than actually answer the question, he deleted the post that prompted it.

A. Hickenlooper's new "bipartisan" State Secretary of X (McDonnell almost did this in VA, Beshear did it a few times in KY)

B. Give someone or some group of people on the GOP side safe districts for life as part of the plan

Better yet, turn the whole process over to an independent commission and end all of the gamesmanship!  But they would never think of something like that.  It's too straightforward and rational.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 04, 2010, 05:54:40 PM
Maine actually redistricts after the 2012 election. Will any/all legislative seats be up for election in 2012?

Yes, the entire legislature is up every 2 years.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: 5280 on November 04, 2010, 07:31:41 PM
This is the current CD map for CO. When the redistricting takes place in spring 2011, they should make CD-7 and CD-2 more competetive and less D control IMO. Probably take off the western portion of CD-7 which is part of Arvada, Lakewood, and Westminster, and include that with CD-6, and take off eastern CD-2 (Thornton, Northglenn, Broomfield) and include CD-7 for western Adams county.
()



Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: California8429 on November 04, 2010, 07:40:31 PM
This is the current CD map for CO. When the redistricting takes place in spring 2011, they should make CD-7 and CD-2 more competetive and less D control IMO. Probably take off the western portion of CD-7 which is part of Arvada, Lakewood, and Westminster, and include that with CD-6, and take off eastern CD-2 (Thornton, Northglenn, Broomfield) and include CD-7 for western Adams county.
()

to me it would seem that would not change the 7th really and just make the 6th slightly more competitive


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: 5280 on November 04, 2010, 07:44:24 PM
This is the current CD map for CO. When the redistricting takes place in spring 2011, they should make CD-7 and CD-2 more competetive and less D control IMO. Probably take off the western portion of CD-7 which is part of Arvada, Lakewood, and Westminster, and include that with CD-6, and take off eastern CD-2 (Thornton, Northglenn, Broomfield) and include CD-7 for western Adams county.
()

to me it would seem that would not change the 7th really and just make the 6th slightly more competitive

I modified it to make it more competitive, include Pueblo with Co Springs, made Arvada, Lakewood and Wheatridge part of CD-6. Take off Thornton, Northglenn, Westy, and Broomfield include with CD-7. CD-2 is less D with the rural part included. Include Erie, Frederick, Longmont and Firestone with CD-4.

If that doesnt work, put the northern suburbs with CD-6 or CD-4
()


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: muon2 on November 04, 2010, 08:51:34 PM
Hilarious that New Hampshire's legislature is about as Republican as Utah's and only behind unambiguously behind Wyoming.

I am also surprised at the the strength of some of other the new Republican majorities. The newly-Republican Alabama Senate is close to a 2/3 majority. For a state that had such large DFL majorities before, Minnesota's Republican majorities are not large but not the razor-thin ones I expected. Maine Senate 60% GOP? I didn't even realise the chamber was considered competitive. (Interestingly, Maine now has a GOP redistricting trifecta, not that it matters much in a state with two districts. Perhaps you could draw an R+1 district?) The Arkansas House, while still majority Democratic, is only 55% from 72% before, and the GOP notoriously failed to nominate candidates that might have won this year.

Yes they could draw an R+1 district in ME, itd look funny and would cost Obama an electoral vote in 2012.

Also, NHs legislature is now veto proof, so technically not a trifecta, but Lynch doesnt really have a say in anything.

On the flip side, will the non-partisan unicameral legislature split the Omaha metro area and reduce the chance of a EV going to Obama in 2012?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: rbt48 on November 04, 2010, 10:13:32 PM


On the flip side, will the non-partisan unicameral legislature split the Omaha metro area and reduce the chance of a EV going to Obama in 2012?
[/quote]

That is a great idea, but I doubt they'll do it.  By the way, non-partisan is a joke.  It is heavily Repuplican on partisan issues.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: muon2 on November 04, 2010, 10:20:28 PM


On the flip side, will the non-partisan unicameral legislature split the Omaha metro area and reduce the chance of a EV going to Obama in 2012?

That is a great idea, but I doubt they'll do it.  By the way, non-partisan is a joke.  It is heavily Repuplican on partisan issues.
[/quote]

I'm quite aware of the real partisan balance, which is why I can imagine the legislature doing that. They can actually do it in the name of reducing county splits as IA does.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Kevinstat on November 04, 2010, 10:31:52 PM
Maine actually redistricts after the 2012 election.

I got my State Representative (a Democrat who was defeated for reelection two days ago), to put in a bill to change that (http://www.mainelegislature.org/legis/bills/display_ps.asp?ld=211&PID=0&snum=124) after the last election.  I figured 2009 was early enough to make the change, but I hadn't thought about the fact that that would move the Spring/Summer (if the Maine Supreme Court has to do it) 2013 apportionment to Spring/Summer 2011, which (the first half of 2011) was in the fiscal biennium that the Legislature in 2009 was responsible for the budget for.  I've heard the Maine Constitution requires a ballanced budget (I'm unsure of the particulars), and there was a huge projected shortfall assuming the level of expenditures at the time and taxes, fees and whatnot were kept as they are.  Even though the fiscal note was only for $485,000 (Maine has an advisory Apportionment Commission which I believe uses expensive computer software, and while I could whip up a plan myself with perhaps a little help with the town splits for the House and Senate districts with minimal costs that I could swallow, you can't change the rules governing what is expected for state funding of apportionment in a constitutional amendment) and I heard that some offsetting funds would have likely come from the national political parties (that wouldn't be there by 2013), there doesn't seem to have been any consideration of the state covering that cost (really moving an existing cost ahead).

The presiding committee apparently looked at whether national (government) funds were available to offset the cost (they weren't) and at having the next redistricting be in 2012 (which wouldn't be soon enough to go into effect for the 2012 election unless there were major statutory changes to the start of the filing period (currently January 1), the filing deadline (March 15 for major party candidates, which includes the Greens in Maine) and the primary (the second Tuesday in June)) (see the House committeee chairs remarks on his motion to indefinitely postpone (kill) the bill on pages H-573 on this word document (http://www.maine.gov/legis/house/records/124hrec/20090526.doc) of the House Legislative Record for that day).  I found out from the House Chair of that committee (the main committees in the Maine Legislature are joint (House and Senate) committees), whom I had written about a technical error in a floor amendment to the bill in his name (although the committe's policy analyst had written it), that the sponsor (my State Representative) had agreed to the bill being indefinitely postponed.  I wasn't very happy about that, but she did make what I thought was a good effort on the bill for a retired director of some state dental hygene program (she was a dental hygenist by trade, I believe) who had first been elected in 2007 to replace her late husband (who himself had been elected in a special election earlier that year).  And she put infinitely more effort than my Republican State Senator, who was reelected with 63% of the vote on Tuesday) seemed to put in (perhaps my casually mentioning that I had volunteered regularly for the Democrats in 2008 when I called him about my idea that November wasn't wise).  My State Representative had put in what she described as the same bill this summer for next year's session (incumbents can do that), but I'm not sure what will happen to it now that she's been defeated.  There would be logistical issues in trying now to redistrict before the 2012 elections (not as much for Congress as all the timing provisions and even the supermajoiry requirement for enacting a plan are all statutory and can be "notwithstood" in newly enacted statutes or amended by new legislation; I imagine there would be a reluctance to abandon the advisory commission process which is established in the Maine Constitution anyway for legislative redistricting).  The bill could be (or could have been) amended to keep the next redistricting in 2013 but move redistrictings after that from 2023 and every 10 years thereafter to 2021 and every 10 years thereafter.

A "cyberfriend" of mine whom I met through a conservative Maine political website I frequent (I generally post statistical/analytical stuff there like here) and who represents Republicans in recount provided advice and support for the bill last year, getting 1975-1983 ME-01 Congressman and MEGOP redistricting guru David Emery to speak and do some limited lobbying on behalf of the bill.  His State Senator, a Democrat (who unseated a Republican incumbent two years ago and hung on solidly on Tuesday) whom I chatted it up with at a party HQ "opening" (I'd already been there as a jumping point for two canvasses by then), is someone I have in mind as a possible replacement sponsor of the bill.  He was on the committee that handles most bills affecting election law (but not that bill last year, which may have been due to an erroneous subject heading although the committee it went to, State and Local Government, handles most constitutional amendment proposals) in the term now effectively over.  If he doesn't put in the bill I'll try to find someone else.  Republicans might oppose moving the 2013 redistricting ahead now that they're in the majority and might be hurt more by new lines in 2012, but I can't see why a constitutional amendment resolution to move redistricings after 2013 ahead two years (with a companion bill doing the same for congressional, county commissioner, the elected county finace/budget committees in the two conties that elect them redistricting that isn't covered in the Maine Constitution) wouldn't sail through the Legislature next year and get adopted by the voters in the resulting referendum.  Maybe Governor LePage and the newly ascendent Republican legislative leadership won't see it as a priority, but my Republican friend would probably make sure they don't pass up a chance for an easy "win" on a good government issue such as this (more timely redistricting and more equal respresentation between the "2" and "4" year elections).


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Shilly on November 05, 2010, 11:37:42 PM
So, a list of chambers that swung towards the democrats this year.

HI Senate
CA Assembly
WV Senate
MD Senate
DE House
PA Senate
MA Senate

Analysis is welcome.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 06, 2010, 06:47:52 AM
I think pretty much all (if not all) of these were single seat changes, so localised races could have swung the difference.

Most of these states are blue states where there wasn't much of a swing in 06/08 and thus little to swing back this year. The exceptions were PA and WV. PA is probably due to Republicans being overextended in the Senate (given that they did make significant gains in the House, they just did it from a lower starting point). WV is kind of interesting given the gains in places like AR, I'd guess Manchin and local factors are responsible.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 06, 2010, 07:58:50 AM
The Maryland pickups were weird -- a seat on the lower Eastern Shore, definitely not ground zero for Democratic strength, and one in Frederick County, where Ehrlich won double-digits.

Delaware Dems picked up three seats in New Castle County and lost one in Kent. The O'Donnell/Urquhart ticket killed the Republicans in New Castle County; they're down to 5/26 of the NCC house seats. They did pick up a Senate seat in Kent county, though, so the NCC/lower two counties split is growing.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2010, 09:13:43 AM
I think pretty much all (if not all) of these were single seat changes, so localised races could have swung the difference.

This is what happened in Mass.: the Republican LG candidate was from a Democratic-leaning district so was replaced with a Democrat. Yet it's a sign of Republican underperformance here that they couldn't defeat any incumbent Democratic senators, despite trying.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 06, 2010, 02:23:59 PM
haha: Democrats actually increased their majority in the WV State Senate.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: CatoMinor on November 06, 2010, 03:47:31 PM
According to The National Conference of State Legislatures

Gray - Split Legislature
Green - Non-partisan Unicameral


Before:

(
)

After:
(
)


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on November 06, 2010, 03:58:58 PM
New York is probably going to end up split not Dem control.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Meeker on November 06, 2010, 04:08:01 PM
I'm also pretty sure Tennessee is completely controlled by the Republicans now.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 06, 2010, 04:46:54 PM
Just to clear up what's happened with the New York Senate: prior to the election, it was 32-30 for the Dems. Four seats have been confirmed as switching parties:

SD-3 - Brian Foley (D) defeated
SD-11 - Frank Padavan (R) defeated
SD-38 - open (R) seat won by D
SD-48 - Darrell Aubertine (D) defeated

In addition, three seats haven't been called yet:

SD-7 - Craig Johnson (D) down by 400 votes
SD-37 - Suzi Oppenheimer (D) up by 500 votes
SD-60 - Antoine Thompson (D) down by 500 votes

So if all of these vote totals hold true, the Republicans will retake control 32-30.

Amazingly, Democrats managed to hold the open SD-58 seat in Erie County.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: ○∙◄☻Ĩtπ[╪AV┼cVę└ on November 06, 2010, 04:54:16 PM
New York is probably going to end up split not Dem control.


Just to clear up what's happened with the New York Senate: prior to the election, it was 32-30 for the Dems. Four seats have been confirmed as switching parties:

SD-3 - Brian Foley (D) defeated
SD-11 - Frank Padavan (R) defeated
SD-38 - open (R) seat won by D
SD-48 - Darrell Aubertine (D) defeated

In addition, three seats haven't been called yet:

SD-7 - Craig Johnson (D) down by 400 votes
SD-37 - Suzi Oppenheimer (D) up by 500 votes
SD-60 - Antoine Thompson (D) down by 500 votes

So if all of these vote totals hold true, the Republicans will retake control 32-30.

Amazingly, Democrats managed to hold the open SD-58 seat in Erie County.

If the Democrats lose only 1, the Lt. Governor will break ties, and they'll retain control.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 06, 2010, 05:35:56 PM
Well, hopefully we can give two of those Republicans safe seats in exchange for gerrymandering the Congressional map.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 06, 2010, 07:23:36 PM
Oregon Senate looks like it will be retained by the Dems. It looks like it's 16-14 now; I see two Dem seats the Republicans are leading, SD-20 (currently occupied by Kurt Schrader's wife) and SD-26. I'm guessing the third pickup would've been SD-3, but the Democrat has pulled ahead there by about 250 votes.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 06, 2010, 07:34:22 PM
()


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: nclib on November 06, 2010, 10:33:13 PM
I've made an updated map:

(
)

Red = full Democratic control
Blue = full Republican control
Green = split control
Gray = non-partisan commission (or N.A. for at-large states)

Nebraska is technically non-partisan, but will have a GOP map.
New York has a chance of having full Democratic control.
Minnesota has a chance of having full Republican control.
Rhode Island has an Independent, but will likely have a Democratic map.
New Hampshire has a Democratic Governor, but a veto-proof GOP legislature.
Maine has legislative elections again before it redistricts.

Any other adjustments?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 06, 2010, 10:35:52 PM
Minnesota has a chance of having full Republican control.

Not a very high chance.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Smash255 on November 06, 2010, 11:25:43 PM
I've made an updated map:

(
)

Red = full Democratic control
Blue = full Republican control
Green = split control
Gray = non-partisan commission (or N.A. for at-large states)

Nebraska is technically non-partisan, but will have a GOP map.
New York has a chance of having full Democratic control.
Minnesota has a chance of having full Republican control.
Rhode Island has an Independent, but will likely have a Democratic map.
Maine has legislative elections again before it redistricts.

Any other adjustments?

Would you mind making a map of who had control for the current lines so we can do a bit of a comparison?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: ○∙◄☻Ĩtπ[╪AV┼cVę└ on November 07, 2010, 12:15:12 AM

The wave just didn't hit California or Delaware

Delaware: Democrats gain House seat, and state legislature races
California: Democrats gain Governorship, state legislature races, Insurance Commissioner. They possibly lose Attorney General race and 1-2 House seats.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 07, 2010, 12:32:06 AM
I've made an updated map:

(
)

Red = full Democratic control
Blue = full Republican control
Green = split control
Gray = non-partisan commission (or N.A. for at-large states)

Nebraska is technically non-partisan, but will have a GOP map.
New York has a chance of having full Democratic control.
Minnesota has a chance of having full Republican control.
Rhode Island has an Independent, but will likely have a Democratic map.
Maine has legislative elections again before it redistricts.

Any other adjustments?

Wouldn't NH be technical GOP control due to GOP supermajorities in the legislature? Not that it matters a lot with two districts that would probably be about the same either way.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 07, 2010, 03:32:09 AM
Also, hasn't Iowa too non-partisan redistricting?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 07, 2010, 04:06:54 PM
Intriguing; I've just had a look through (well, a very quick scan anyway) the PA House results, and the Democrats seem to have held up somewhat better in the west than the rest of the state; which is a little unexpected. DeWeese result not so odd then.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 07, 2010, 04:22:48 PM

The more trouble DeWeese gets himself in, the more popular he becomes.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 08, 2010, 07:54:25 AM
Although Maine currently redistricts after years ending in a 2, might they change the law to do it early this time? First and foremost, Maine Republicans will want to protect their own majorities and could do so with gerrymandering. Secondly, it makes a single electoral vote a tossup or even R-leaning for 2012 and ensures it for 2016 and 2020. Finally, it's easy for them to justify as "synchronising with other states".


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Dan the Roman on November 08, 2010, 09:33:41 AM
Although Maine currently redistricts after years ending in a 2, might they change the law to do it early this time? First and foremost, Maine Republicans will want to protect their own majorities and could do so with gerrymandering. Secondly, it makes a single electoral vote a tossup or even R-leaning for 2012 and ensures it for 2016 and 2020. Finally, it's easy for them to justify as "synchronising with other states".

There was also a bipartisan bill introduced to do so.

That said, Maine very rarely crosses town lines in districting. Any effort to gerrymander, especially given some of the bizzareness of the 2010 result would be risky and might backfire immensely. Really the only thing that could be done is to move Lewiston/Auburn to the second congressional district. House districts are too small to gerrymander.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 08, 2010, 09:54:11 AM
Although Maine currently redistricts after years ending in a 2, might they change the law to do it early this time? First and foremost, Maine Republicans will want to protect their own majorities and could do so with gerrymandering. Secondly, it makes a single electoral vote a tossup or even R-leaning for 2012 and ensures it for 2016 and 2020. Finally, it's easy for them to justify as "synchronising with other states".

There was also a bipartisan bill introduced to do so.

That said, Maine very rarely crosses town lines in districting. Any effort to gerrymander, especially given some of the bizzareness of the 2010 result would be risky and might backfire immensely. Really the only thing that could be done is to move Lewiston/Auburn to the second congressional district. House districts are too small to gerrymander.

I think gerrymandering is one of those obscure "beltway" issues that is pretty hard to get people really riled up about. They might vote for a non-partisan redistricting amendment, but they probably wouldn't care enough about it to vote against egregiously gerrymandering politicians. (Can anyone cite any examples to contest my hypothesis?)


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: minionofmidas on November 08, 2010, 09:56:44 AM
Although Maine currently redistricts after years ending in a 2, might they change the law to do it early this time? First and foremost, Maine Republicans will want to protect their own majorities and could do so with gerrymandering. Secondly, it makes a single electoral vote a tossup or even R-leaning for 2012 and ensures it for 2016 and 2020. Finally, it's easy for them to justify as "synchronising with other states".
Well, the reason they don't do it in time for 2012 is that with their strange (and short) sessions and very early primary filing deadlines, they don't really have time do it in time for 2012. It wouldn't be *impossible*, certainly not for two federal districts that aren't going to be gerrymandered anyways, but if the necessary law change hasn't happened before the 2010 election it won't happen in time to affect this redistricting cycle.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Verily on November 08, 2010, 12:18:55 PM
Although Maine currently redistricts after years ending in a 2, might they change the law to do it early this time? First and foremost, Maine Republicans will want to protect their own majorities and could do so with gerrymandering. Secondly, it makes a single electoral vote a tossup or even R-leaning for 2012 and ensures it for 2016 and 2020. Finally, it's easy for them to justify as "synchronising with other states".
Well, the reason they don't do it in time for 2012 is that with their strange (and short) sessions and very early primary filing deadlines, they don't really have time do it in time for 2012. It wouldn't be *impossible*, certainly not for two federal districts that aren't going to be gerrymandered anyways, but if the necessary law change hasn't happened before the 2010 election it won't happen in time to affect this redistricting cycle.

Maine is also not the sort of state that would tolerate a party gerrymandering itself into power. About 3/4 of Maine voters are perfectly willing to vote for either party or for independents, and they would toss the Republicans (or Democrats) out on their ears if they gerrymandered the state legislature.

Not true in most states. True in Maine.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 08, 2010, 01:23:02 PM
Regionalism is actually a big deal in Maine. I think this is why they have the split electoral votes. The GOP holds only a four seat majority in the State House, meaning it'd take only two crossovers to kill a map. I suspect that with how small State House seats are in Maine there are at least two Reps who'd vote against a map shoving their areas into the Portland-area seat.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on November 08, 2010, 07:21:06 PM
SD-60 - Antoine Thompson (D) down by 500 votes

Just looked at the map of this district and ... what?

Did this guy have some sort of scandal, or did the blacks on Buffalo's east side just epically fail to turn out?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 08, 2010, 07:46:21 PM
SD-60 - Antoine Thompson (D) down by 500 votes

Just looked at the map of this district and ... what?

Did this guy have some sort of scandal, or did the blacks on Buffalo's east side just epically fail to turn out?

Some cursory Googling suggests that Thompson was a miserable failure of a representative. (http://tonawanda-news.com/opinion/x2073123916/DUVALL-Dumping-Antoine-was-a-great-first-step)


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Hash on November 08, 2010, 07:54:09 PM
Paladino "coattails" in Erie County as well, maybe?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Verily on November 08, 2010, 08:11:52 PM
SD-60 - Antoine Thompson (D) down by 500 votes

Just looked at the map of this district and ... what?

Did this guy have some sort of scandal, or did the blacks on Buffalo's east side just epically fail to turn out?

Some cursory Googling suggests that Thompson was a miserable failure of a representative. (http://tonawanda-news.com/opinion/x2073123916/DUVALL-Dumping-Antoine-was-a-great-first-step)

Yeah, it was basically like LA-02, only minus the big-ticket scandal. Grisanti is a one-termer for sure, and no amount of gerrymandering will save him since doing so would require leaving some other Republican very vulnerable.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 08, 2010, 09:47:02 PM
Where's a map of that seat? And how much did it give Obama?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 08, 2010, 09:58:01 PM
http://www.nysenate.gov/district/60


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 08, 2010, 10:15:15 PM
SD-60 gave Obama 77%. (http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6083/why-presidential-toplines-dont-mean-everything-the-new-york-senate)


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 08, 2010, 10:17:30 PM
Uh, wow. That probably sets a record for State Senate districts held by Republicans nationwide.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 08, 2010, 10:22:07 PM
How many absentees are out in this district?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 08, 2010, 10:30:49 PM
So suppose the GOP wins the state Senate, how do they gerrymander a way for them to hold it in 2012 presuming that SD-60 is a near certain loss? They'd need to convert another Democratic seat.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 08, 2010, 10:44:58 PM
So suppose the GOP wins the state Senate, how do they gerrymander a way for them to hold it in 2012 presuming that SD-60 is a near certain loss? They'd need to convert another Democratic seat.

They cant gerrymander it as Cuomo has veto. 


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 08, 2010, 10:47:06 PM
Maybe they'll just add a seat again, like they did in 2000. At least then it'd be an odd number again, so no ties.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Verily on November 08, 2010, 11:01:24 PM
Uh, wow. That probably sets a record for State Senate districts held by Republicans nationwide.

Highest I can find otherwise is the Washington County district in Vermont, 69% Obama, returns two Republicans and a Democrat. IIRC Frank Padavan's seat in Queens is 66% Obama, but he lost this year.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Barnes on November 08, 2010, 11:36:18 PM
So what's the current total in the NY Senate?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 08, 2010, 11:42:20 PM
So what's the current total in the NY Senate?

30 GOP-29 Dem with 3 undecided, but that article was a few days old, so some have been called by now, most likely.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Barnes on November 08, 2010, 11:53:57 PM
So what's the current total in the NY Senate?

30 GOP-29 Dem with 3 undecided, but that article was a few days old, so some have been called by now, most likely.

Thanks. New York would really turn into a fail state if they a have a repeat of the Senate fiasco from 2009.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: cinyc on November 09, 2010, 12:01:00 AM
So what's the current total in the NY Senate?

30 GOP-29 Dem with 3 undecided, but that article was a few days old, so some have been called by now, most likely.

Nothing has been called in New York.  Absentees can still trickle in as long as they were postmarked before Election Day (I'm not sure about on).  As far as I know, none have even been opened yet - unless they started today.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on November 09, 2010, 10:28:08 AM
The sad thing is that if the Dems had held the state senate in NY they could have undone the GOP gerrymander for the senate districts and had a strong chance of holding it for a while. Then again, they didn't exactly prove themselves worthy of having a majority over the last two years so maybe it's for the best. What a dysfunctional state government..


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 09, 2010, 11:59:32 AM
The strongest seat for Obama won by a Republican I can find in Minnesota is 57A which was open and gave Obama 56.57%. Obviously the guy who won it is probably doomed in 2012 unless it changes hugely in redistricting.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: cinyc on November 09, 2010, 01:43:50 PM
Today is the last day for non-military absentees to arrive in New York.  Military absentees can trickle in until November 15.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 09, 2010, 07:51:45 PM
HD-86 in Virginia is held by a Republican; it went 62-37 for Obama. There was also that district in Delaware that went Republican in a special election right after the election, but the Dems won it back this year.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 09, 2010, 07:58:03 PM
Optimal redistricting is interesting from a game theoretic perspective. If John Boehner could draw every district, he'd want to draw about 220 safe Republican districts and about 215 safe Democratic districts (a bare majority plus a couple extra for security against scandals/localised swings). If you're redistricting only Texas, though, your incentives are different. Since other states will be Democratic/non-partisan gerrymanders, and many of the Republican gerrymanders are in states are less Republican, you need to draw a decidedly Republican map. But how ambitious it should be is not obvious. People cite 2006 and 2008 as examples of ambitious Republican gerrymandering failing in many states, but a good gerrymander should not be infallible. There is not as much value in the difference between 200 and 210 seats as there is between 210 and 220, so it's worth weakening your 210th best seat to shore up the 220th.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on November 10, 2010, 08:35:38 AM
People cite 2006 and 2008 as examples of ambitious Republican gerrymandering failing in many states, but a good gerrymander should not be infallible.

Yes. One thing we've seen this decade, depressing as it may be, is that gerrymanders generally don't backfire and will hold up across time. They will hold except in the case of overwhelming pressure for the other party, and then can just as easily go back to the planned outcome. People talked about Georgia backfiring in 2002 or Pennsylvania doing so in 2006, but they functioned as planned, up to a certain level of partisan change or partisan wave.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: justfollowingtheelections on November 10, 2010, 12:04:05 PM
Where can I find who won the majority in the state legislatures of all states?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: rbt48 on November 10, 2010, 05:19:40 PM
Try looking here:
http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx (http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx)


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on November 11, 2010, 04:32:22 AM
Pretty good article on Gerrymandering:

http://pajamasmedia.com/zombie/2010/11/10/gerrymandering-101/


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 11, 2010, 06:01:31 AM
Pretty good article on Gerrymandering:

http://pajamasmedia.com/zombie/2010/11/10/gerrymandering-101/

Pretty ridiculous to claim that the current maps favour Democrats on net.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 11, 2010, 07:56:41 AM
The only significant states where the Dems had the trifecta in 2000 were Alabama, California (irrelevant, since they just did an incumbent protection map), Georgia (undone in 2005), Maryland, and North Carolina. The Republicans had Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 11, 2010, 05:09:56 PM
The only significant states where the Dems had the trifecta in 2000 were Alabama, California (irrelevant, since they just did an incumbent protection map), Georgia (undone in 2005), Maryland, and North Carolina. The Republicans had Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

How in the world did they get that Indiana map past Republicans who had a say?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 11, 2010, 05:21:53 PM
The only significant states where the Dems had the trifecta in 2000 were Alabama, California (irrelevant, since they just did an incumbent protection map), Georgia (undone in 2005), Maryland, and North Carolina. The Republicans had Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

How in the world did they get that Indiana map past Republicans who had a say?

They didn't. Democrats held the trifecta in Indiana.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 11, 2010, 05:29:30 PM
The only significant states where the Dems had the trifecta in 2000 were Alabama, California (irrelevant, since they just did an incumbent protection map), Georgia (undone in 2005), Maryland, and North Carolina. The Republicans had Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

How in the world did they get that Indiana map past Republicans who had a say?

They didn't. Democrats held the trifecta in Indiana.

Actually, Republicans had the state Senate and the legislature couldnt agree to a map, so the Lt. Governor(a Democrat) got to pick the map. 


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: CatoMinor on November 11, 2010, 05:46:38 PM
Have any of the toss up NY senate races been called yet?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Kevinstat on November 12, 2010, 12:34:35 AM
Can the New York State Senate (and the New York State Assembly) redistrict itself without requiring the approval of either the other chamber or the Governor?

Even if so, I imagine a Republican NY State Senate couldn't undo the change in how prisoners are counted (even just for State Senate districts) on their own so if they just scraped by with a Senate majority at the end of this era of Senate districts then I see the Democrats gaining control of the chamber for good by the middle of this decade (by the legislative inaugaration after the 2014 elections), if not earlier.  The Republicans' best bet might be to make the, say, 25th and 28th most Republican State Senate district as Republican as possible (a two-layer defense against obscurity; 25 and 28 Republicans would be 40% and 45% of a 62-member Senate) and hope the Democrats will not bother to redraw the districts after they regain control in 2012 than try to gerrymander their way to another decade of control and end up with less than a third of the seats in the State Senate by 2021.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on November 12, 2010, 08:50:42 AM
Given the state of the N.Y. Senate, the Dems should be at least trying to woo one Republican senator over to their side with the promise of a safe district and some power.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 12, 2010, 09:00:22 AM
Given the state of the N.Y. Senate, the Dems should be at least trying to woo one Republican senator over to their side with the promise of a safe district and some power.

Couldn't Republicans do just the same?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on November 12, 2010, 09:46:54 AM
Given the state of the N.Y. Senate, the Dems should be at least trying to woo one Republican senator over to their side with the promise of a safe district and some power.

Couldn't Republicans do just the same?

Redistricting and NY's demographics are going to make it difficult to hold their majority in the long term, even if they get another shot to draw the maps for their chamber. The long-term stock for NY Republicans is about as good as that of Mississippi Democrats. Life in the minority in either chamber of the NY legislature is dismal, too.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 12, 2010, 10:17:02 AM
Given the state of the N.Y. Senate, the Dems should be at least trying to woo one Republican senator over to their side with the promise of a safe district and some power.

Couldn't Republicans do just the same?

Redistricting and NY's demographics are going to make it difficult to hold their majority in the long term, even if they get another shot to draw the maps for their chamber. The long-term stock for NY Republicans is about as good as that of Mississippi Democrats. Life in the minority in either chamber of the NY legislature is dismal, too.

I am not sure this makes a huge amount of difference for a self-interested legislator. Even if they're inevitably in the minority within the next decade, the short term gains of what the Republicans can offer might outweigh the long term benefits. In addition, the fact that the Republicans know their majority is unlikely to last the long term might allow them to make crazier deals that Democrats, with their long term interests to look after, would be less inclined to do.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Kevinstat on November 12, 2010, 11:20:21 AM
Although Maine currently redistricts after years ending in a 2, might they change the law to do it early this time? First and foremost, Maine Republicans will want to protect their own majorities and could do so with gerrymandering. [...] Finally, it's easy for them to justify as "synchronising with other states".

My reply:

Legislative redistricting in Maine before 2013 (and legislative redistricting in Maine done by the Legislature without 2/3 support in each chamber, which the Republicans don't have), would require a state constitutional amendment, which itself requires a 2/3 vote in each house of the Legislature.


Well, the reason they don't do it in time for 2012 is that with their strange (and short) sessions and very early primary filing deadlines, they don't really have time do it in time for 2012.

My reply:

The Statutory adjournment date of the odd-year regular session of the Maine Legislature is now the third Wednesday in June.  How much later than that do odd-year regular sessions adjourn in most states?


It wouldn't be *impossible*, certainly not for two federal districts that aren't going to be gerrymandered anyways, but if the necessary law change hasn't happened before the 2010 election it won't happen in time to affect this redistricting cycle.

My reply: The change didn't happen last year (the bipartisan bill Dan the Roman mentioned to do that for Maine's legislative redistricting failed) because it would have moved the associated costs with redistricting (Maine has an advisory commission which uses, as far as I can tell, expensive taxpayer-funded computer software) into the fiscal biennium the Legislature at the time was responsible for making the budget for, and there was already a huge shortfall.  A new congressional and county commissioner district plan could be adopted next year like ordinary law with the established funds for bill drafting and the like being all the funding that is requiered.  See my quote below from another current thread.

There are similar statutory provisions for congressional and county commissioner redistricting in Maine, but the relevent sections, subsections, and whatnot could be amended or "notwithstood" by a law enacting new plans for those districts which could be passed and signed by the Governor as easily as "normal" legislation.  I could see the Republicans redrawing Maine's congressional districts next year, but I could easily see them deciding not to risk negative PR on an early (based on current Maine law, which should have been fixed long ago regarding the timing of redistricting) and partisan redistricting.

Since making that post late last night (or very early this morning), I received the following e-mail reply from a Maine Republican insider or "semi-insider" who has been discussing much of this with me (he was the one I believe gathered up a lot of the Republican support for the bipartisan bill Dan the Roman and I have mentioned):

Quote
I was thinking of a two step process:
 
1.  Passing a new plan for Congress and the County Commissioners under the argument that Maine is wrong to be doing it late; and
 
2.  Amending the Constitution to move the redistricting up next time AND to include Congress and County Commissioners under the commission so an early redistricting could not be done again.   That would eliminate a 2015 redistricting if passed.  Minority Democrats would have a good reason to vote for such a change.

I had discussed the possibility of a Democratic congressional/county commissioner redistricting in 2015 if the Democrats were in complete control by then if the Republicans had rammed through a plan in 2011.  I assume from his statement that Minority Democrats (in the Legislature) would have a good reason to vote for such a change that the 2/3 in each chamber vote requirement in the Maine Constitution for the Legislature to adopt a State House or State Senate redistricting plan in Maine would be included in the new state constitutional provisions for congressional and county commissioner redistricting (the current 2/3 vote requirements for those redistrictings are only in statute which as I mentioned above could be amended or "notwithstood" (disregarded in regards to whatever is being done "notwithstanding" that section, subsection, etc. but retaining its effect elsewhere)).  This e-mail suggests to me that the Republicans in Maine may not be nearly as partisan next year with respect to redistricting as Nichlemn suggests they might be.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Frodo on November 12, 2010, 10:12:21 PM
Update: With LA state rep. Walker Hines switching parties (http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2010/11/state_rep_walker_hines_switchi.html), the Louisiana legislature is now split, with Republicans now having a one-vote lead in the Louisiana House.

With the 2010 elections out of the way (for the most part), which of the following chambers does anyone here see switching parties in 2011?

Louisiana Senate (D: 22, R: 16, I: 1)
Louisiana House (R: 51, D: 50, I: 4)

Mississippi Senate (D: 26, R: 24)
Mississippi House (D: 72, R: 50)

Virginia Senate (D: 22, R: 18)
Virginia House (R: 59, D: 39, I: 2)

New Jersey Senate (D: 23, R: 17)
New Jersey House (D: 47, R: 33)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Also, would anyone happen to know how many white Democrats will still represent conservative to moderate conservative districts in legislatures throughout the South after January?  


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 13, 2010, 09:11:01 AM
I don't want to go through all the state legislatures, but I just looked at the Alabama Senate, and the Democratic caucus is now 8 black members, 4 whites. Only one of the white members won easily this year, he has a seat that's partially in the black belt. Interestingly, one of the African-American members is a freshman who was elected to a white-majority area in the NW corner of the state.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 13, 2010, 12:11:22 PM
That Louisiana party switcher is quite odd. You'd assume he was a Dixiecrat from some part of the state that hasn't voted Dem in forever, but he actually represents this district (http://house.louisiana.gov/mapspdf/Census2003Maps/District95.pdf). He's probably losing next time.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Torie on November 13, 2010, 01:37:51 PM
That Louisiana party switcher is quite odd. You'd assume he was a Dixiecrat from some part of the state that hasn't voted Dem in forever, but he actually represents this district (http://house.louisiana.gov/mapspdf/Census2003Maps/District95.pdf). He's probably losing next time.

More chat about the party switcher is here (http://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/).  The 95th district does not look all that Dem to me, but I could be wrong. That party of New Orleans is kind of complicated, as the Garden District begins and ends somewhere in or near it.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: cinyc on November 13, 2010, 03:28:14 PM
Given the state of the N.Y. Senate, the Dems should be at least trying to woo one Republican senator over to their side with the promise of a safe district and some power.

Couldn't Republicans do just the same?

Redistricting and NY's demographics are going to make it difficult to hold their majority in the long term, even if they get another shot to draw the maps for their chamber. The long-term stock for NY Republicans is about as good as that of Mississippi Democrats. Life in the minority in either chamber of the NY legislature is dismal, too.

Reports of the NY Republican demise are greatly exaggerated.  If they can win back the suburbs, they will retain control of the State Senate through the decade.  That rebuilding process began in 2009 and continued to grow in 2010. 

Whether it can continue in the future is an open question, but if Cuomo turns out to be as bad a governor as I expect him to be, it very well may.  The key to state-level politics will be the growing chasm between private and public sector salaries and benefits.  Most Democrats are far too beholden to the public sector to be on the right side of that fight, especially Democrats who were also backed by the Working Families Party (a.k.a. unions, especially the public employee unions).  AG-elect Schneiderman certainly is on the wrong side - and he and Sheldon Silver will be two huge thorns in Cuomo's side, even if he claims not to be as influenced by the public employee unions.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: cinyc on November 13, 2010, 03:40:02 PM
To answer the initial New York question, some of the absentees have been counted in the LI district.  Democrat Johnson netted 61 votes, and now trails by 427.  I don't know exactly what's left to count, though (military absentees can trickle in until the week of Thanksgiving, I believe) - absentees from two other Assembly districts within the Senate District appear to be part of it.  Two unrelated injunctions supposedly prevent counting absentee/affidavit ballots in the Westchester district, but they finally counted the two missing precincts.   Democrat Oppenheimer leads by 504 with 3,323 emergency, 3,814 absentees and 1,065 affidavit ballots to be counted.    With the Erie County emergency ballots counted, and Democrat Thompson still trails by 597.  The Democrat netted 1 vote in the Erie emergency vote count.    2,700+ absentees and 2,200+ affidavit ballots still remain to be counted.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 13, 2010, 03:47:10 PM
Is there any chance that there will be an impasse at New York and the courts draw the map?

Plus, I think that even if Strickland won in Ohio the Republicans would still control the process. I seem to remember that there is a 5-seat panel that handles redistricting and even with Strickland they would have a 4-1 majority.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Badger on November 13, 2010, 04:06:05 PM
That Louisiana party switcher is quite odd. You'd assume he was a Dixiecrat from some part of the state that hasn't voted Dem in forever, but he actually represents this district (http://house.louisiana.gov/mapspdf/Census2003Maps/District95.pdf). He's probably losing next time.

The article says he's looking to run for Sec. of State. Chances are he's not even running next time.

I wonder if promise of Rep. Party support for that race was promised for the switch? We'll know if the GOP establishment rallies around this guy as nominee apparant.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Bacon King on November 13, 2010, 05:53:14 PM
That Louisiana party switcher is quite odd. You'd assume he was a Dixiecrat from some part of the state that hasn't voted Dem in forever, but he actually represents this district (http://house.louisiana.gov/mapspdf/Census2003Maps/District95.pdf). He's probably losing next time.

More chat about the party switcher is here (http://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/).  The 95th district does not look all that Dem to me, but I could be wrong. That party of New Orleans is kind of complicated, as the Garden District begins and ends somewhere in or near it.

WTF, MY REPRESENTATIVE SWITCHED PARTIES?

But it's a pretty Democratic area, yeah. The northern bits and some of the west of the district are majority black. Cedric Richmond won most precincts in the district; Cao basically only won the parts of the district in the 14th ward (in your map, the precincts numbered 14-XX). And even then, not every one of 'em. I haven't checked but I think Obama may have won every precinct in the district.

But Louisiana has a long tradition of party switching! Wouldn't be surprised if this guy does run for SoS.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Frodo on November 13, 2010, 06:56:10 PM
That Louisiana party switcher is quite odd. You'd assume he was a Dixiecrat from some part of the state that hasn't voted Dem in forever, but he actually represents this district (http://house.louisiana.gov/mapspdf/Census2003Maps/District95.pdf). He's probably losing next time.

More chat about the party switcher is here (http://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/).  The 95th district does not look all that Dem to me, but I could be wrong. That party of New Orleans is kind of complicated, as the Garden District begins and ends somewhere in or near it.

WTF, MY REPRESENTATIVE SWITCHED PARTIES?

But it's a pretty Democratic area, yeah. The northern bits and some of the west of the district are majority black. Cedric Richmond won most precincts in the district; Cao basically only won the parts of the district in the 14th ward (in your map, the precincts numbered 14-XX). And even then, not every one of 'em. I haven't checked but I think Obama may have won every precinct in the district.

But Louisiana has a long tradition of party switching! Wouldn't be surprised if this guy does run for SoS.

Since you live in the state, do you see the legislature there (as well as in Mississippi) being taken over by Republicans as they have already done in other Deep South states?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: cinyc on November 13, 2010, 07:58:39 PM
Is there any chance that there will be an impasse at New York and the courts draw the map?

Plus, I think that even if Strickland won in Ohio the Republicans would still control the process. I seem to remember that there is a 5-seat panel that handles redistricting and even with Strickland they would have a 4-1 majority.

I doubt it.  More likely than not, Republicans will draw an incumbent-protect Senate map, Democrats an incumbent-protect Assembly map, and both an incumbent-protect House map with some sort of compromise on which district(s) to abolish.  That seems to be what always happens.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 13, 2010, 08:12:32 PM
Is there any chance that there will be an impasse at New York and the courts draw the map?

Plus, I think that even if Strickland won in Ohio the Republicans would still control the process. I seem to remember that there is a 5-seat panel that handles redistricting and even with Strickland they would have a 4-1 majority.

I doubt it.  More likely than not, Republicans will draw an incumbent-protect Senate map, Democrats an incumbent-protect Assembly map, and both an incumbent-protect House map with some sort of compromise on which district(s) to abolish.  That seems to be what always happens.

But what's the Democrats incentive to compromise? It's not like that without an incumbent protection map they are in danger of losing the House, or any more congressional seats for that matter.
On the contrary, a court drawn map may throw the senate back to them in two years and then they can proceed to a mid-decade redistricting like Texas and Georgia Republicans did.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: rbt48 on November 13, 2010, 08:23:17 PM
The NCLS website http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx (http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx) now shows the Mississippi Senate at 25-D, 24-R with 3 vacancies.  I'm not sure if the vacancies are possible GOP gains, but at least one must be a Republican district as the lineup was reported as 27-D, 25-R not too many days ago.  So, perhaps a Republican take-over looms here.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 13, 2010, 08:44:27 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_House_of_Representatives


Because of a party switcher, the Democratic caucus in the MS HOR is now majority black.


Democratic bench of potential blue dogs for Senate and House is being wiped out in these states.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 13, 2010, 08:47:03 PM
The NCLS website http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx (http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx) now shows the Mississippi Senate at 25-D, 24-R with 3 vacancies.  I'm not sure if the vacancies are possible GOP gains, but at least one must be a Republican district as the lineup was reported as 27-D, 25-R not too many days ago.  So, perhaps a Republican take-over looms here.

Alan Nunnelee (R) was elected to the House in MS-01. So he is the Republican vacancy.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 13, 2010, 09:43:31 PM
The redistricting panel in Ohio only does the state legislature. Congressional districts are drawn in the usual legislature + governor veto manner.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: cinyc on November 13, 2010, 09:58:19 PM
Is there any chance that there will be an impasse at New York and the courts draw the map?

Plus, I think that even if Strickland won in Ohio the Republicans would still control the process. I seem to remember that there is a 5-seat panel that handles redistricting and even with Strickland they would have a 4-1 majority.

I doubt it.  More likely than not, Republicans will draw an incumbent-protect Senate map, Democrats an incumbent-protect Assembly map, and both an incumbent-protect House map with some sort of compromise on which district(s) to abolish.  That seems to be what always happens.

But what's the Democrats incentive to compromise? It's not like that without an incumbent protection map they are in danger of losing the House, or any more congressional seats for that matter.
On the contrary, a court drawn map may throw the senate back to them in two years and then they can proceed to a mid-decade redistricting like Texas and Georgia Republicans did.

Because that's what they've always done.  I don't remember New York maps ever going to a court.  And you don't know how a court is going to draw the lines, in particular, possibly putting some Assembly Democrats at risk.

Incumbent protection always seems to be the default position in New York.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 14, 2010, 09:50:31 PM
If you don't understand why New York would go incumbent protection, you don't know much of anything about the real way politics -- and people -- work. It's your own career first, your party and ideology second. Always has been, always will be.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on November 15, 2010, 10:00:14 AM
I'm thinking: from a game theoretic perspective, the minority party in Congressional redistricting (in today's case the Democrats) should try to maximise the number of "tilt Democratic" districts they can, while Republicans should aim for many "likely GOP" seats. Why? Consider that a good Republican gerrymander should result in the Republicans winning the House despite losing the popular vote. Therefore, any situation where Democrats win the House involves them likely winning the popular vote by a modest margin. In such a scenario, they should win the vast majority of seats that would tilt Democratic in a neutral year. Yes, it would look like a "dummymander" in a poor year, but they would never win the House under such a scenario anyway.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on November 15, 2010, 11:02:57 AM
Reports of the NY Republican demise are greatly exaggerated.  If they can win back the suburbs, they will retain control of the State Senate through the decade.  That rebuilding process began in 2009 and continued to grow in 2010. 

They needed a heavily gerrymandered map and a Republican wave year to get above parity and hold onto 32-30. The next map, even if drawn by Republicans to continue to crack Long Island's minority communities and upstate Democratic districts, will be hampered by the law change making it impossible to county downstate prisoners as residents of underpopulated northern Republican districts. The Democrats aren't holding any untenable districts that I know of, considering that Aubertine and the guy on Suffolk County lost, while the Republican in Buffalo is in a weak position and there are Republicans representing places like Rochester and central Nassau who would be in tough shape even if the suburbs started voting like it was 1988 again.

We'll see what happens next year when we have new maps (likely drawn by Republicans, although with difficulty) and a Presidential election year.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: cinyc on November 15, 2010, 02:08:21 PM
Reports of the NY Republican demise are greatly exaggerated.  If they can win back the suburbs, they will retain control of the State Senate through the decade.  That rebuilding process began in 2009 and continued to grow in 2010. 

They needed a heavily gerrymandered map and a Republican wave year to get above parity and hold onto 32-30. The next map, even if drawn by Republicans to continue to crack Long Island's minority communities and upstate Democratic districts, will be hampered by the law change making it impossible to county downstate prisoners as residents of underpopulated northern Republican districts. The Democrats aren't holding any untenable districts that I know of, considering that Aubertine and the guy on Suffolk County lost, while the Republican in Buffalo is in a weak position and there are Republicans representing places like Rochester and central Nassau who would be in tough shape even if the suburbs started voting like it was 1988 again.

We'll see what happens next year when we have new maps (likely drawn by Republicans, although with difficulty) and a Presidential election year.


Assuming the Democrat incumbent keeps her narrow lead in SD-37, Democrats hold seats in the Bronx/NYC northern suburbs that can easily go over to the Republicans if redrawn correctly (cramming minority areas of Westchester into a Democratic stronghold district and making a seat or two for Republicans out of the residual).  If I'm not mistaken, two of those seats had two Republican incumbents last time the lines were drawn to try to keep both in power (including one that contained much of the Bronx before the incumbent Republican was indicted).  Westchester and Rockland have enough Republicans that they should be able to elect at least one more Republican to the NYS Senate, if not two.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: CARLHAYDEN on November 15, 2010, 02:37:15 PM
http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Kevinstat on November 15, 2010, 07:34:29 PM
Can the New York State Senate (and the New York State Assembly) redistrict itself without requiring the approval of either the other chamber or the Governor?

I don't recall anyone answering this question.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on November 15, 2010, 07:45:06 PM
Can the New York State Senate (and the New York State Assembly) redistrict itself without requiring the approval of either the other chamber or the Governor?

I don't recall anyone answering this question.

I'm pretty sure the answer is no.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: nclib on November 15, 2010, 07:47:34 PM
I've made an updated map:

(
)

Red = full Democratic control
Blue = full Republican control
Green = split control
Gray = non-partisan commission (or N.A. for at-large states)

Nebraska is technically non-partisan, but will have a GOP map.
New York has a chance of having full Democratic control.
Minnesota has a chance of having full Republican control.
Rhode Island has an Independent Governor, but will likely have a Democratic map.
New Hampshire has a Democratic Governor but a veto proof GOP legislature.
Maine has legislative elections again before it redistricts.


Would you mind making a map of who had control for the current lines so we can do a bit of a comparison?

Okay. CT and ME are unclear do to ME redistricting a cycle later, and this was CT's description (from Fairvote):

Quote
Who’s in Charge of Redistricting?

The legislature has the responsibility for both state legislative and congressional districting. If they fail to meet the deadline, the governor appoints a nine-member redistricting commission. The Governor has no veto power over redistricting at either the congressional or state legislative levels.

(
)


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: jimrtex on November 16, 2010, 02:06:32 AM
More chat about the party switcher is here (http://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/).  The 95th district does not look all that Dem to me, but I could be wrong. That party of New Orleans is kind of complicated, as the Garden District begins and ends somewhere in or near it.

In 2007, there were 9 candidates, with the lone Republican squeezing into 8th place (330 votes vs. 317, and 5% of the total).  Hines came from way back to win the runoff.

Does Louisiana redistrict before the 2011 election, or do they wait until 2015?  NOLA will probably lose a bunch of seats.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 16, 2010, 08:16:49 AM
Louisiana is redistricting next year for the 2011 elections (http://house.louisiana.gov/H_Redistricting2011/default_TimeLine2011.htm), same as Virginia. I believe New Jersey is doing the same, and I can't find anything on Mississippi, except that last time they didn't adopt new maps until spring of 2002.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: jimrtex on November 16, 2010, 11:12:41 AM
Louisiana is redistricting next year for the 2011 elections (http://house.louisiana.gov/H_Redistricting2011/default_TimeLine2011.htm), same as Virginia. I believe New Jersey is doing the same, and I can't find anything on Mississippi, except that last time they didn't adopt new maps until spring of 2002.
That's a pretty interesting schedule.  They will hold an extraordinary special redistricting session before the regular session.  Not only does Louisiana hold its elections in odd years, they hold them in October - though because the Open Primary takes the place of partisan primaries, that is actually later than most states,  When Louisiana switched back to the open primary for congressional elections earlier this year, the legislature considered making it effective for 2010, until they realized it would be impossible to get VRA pre-clearance.

Mississippi has regular partisan primaries in July, and some really ugly legislative districts

http://www.msjrc.state.ms.us/ms_house.html

So they might not be able to get it done in time.  It would be interesting if someone were to challenge the existing districts, and force new elections before 2015.  The census bureau can compile population for existing districts if the state submits boundaries in time.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 16, 2010, 06:38:39 PM
Virginia's primary is normally in June, but they move it to August in redistricting years.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Kevinstat on November 16, 2010, 10:44:30 PM
Louisiana is redistricting next year for the 2011 elections (http://house.louisiana.gov/H_Redistricting2011/default_TimeLine2011.htm), same as Virginia. I believe New Jersey is doing the same, and I can't find anything on Mississippi, except that last time they didn't adopt new maps until spring of 2002.
That's a pretty interesting schedule.  They will hold an extraordinary special redistricting session before the regular session.  Not only does Louisiana hold its elections in odd years, they hold them in October - though because the Open Primary takes the place of partisan primaries, that is actually later than most states,  When Louisiana switched back to the open primary for congressional elections earlier this year, the legislature considered making it effective for 2010, until they realized it would be impossible to get VRA pre-clearance.

Mississippi has regular partisan primaries in July, and some really ugly legislative districts

http://www.msjrc.state.ms.us/ms_house.html

So they might not be able to get it done in time.  It would be interesting if someone were to challenge the existing districts, and force new elections before 2015.  The census bureau can compile population for existing districts if the state submits boundaries in time.

The Mississippi Constitution, last I checkd, actually says that redistricting takes place in 1982 and every 10th year thereafter, but it seems like that was igored in 1991, which was a Legislative election year in Mississippi like 2011 will be.  Legislative redistricting was delayed but because of Justice department non-preclearance (which may have been prompted by a lawsuit from Black legislators and civil rights activists under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act).  And there ended up being Legislative elections in 1992 for a three-year term.  See Mississippi Redistricting Cases:  the 1990s (http://www.senate.leg.state.mn.us/departments/scr/redist/redsum/MSSUM.HTM) (Watkins v. Maubus and the first Watkins v. Fordice).


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: jimrtex on November 17, 2010, 02:50:08 AM
Mississippi has regular partisan primaries in July, and some really ugly legislative districts

http://www.msjrc.state.ms.us/ms_house.html

So they might not be able to get it done in time.  It would be interesting if someone were to challenge the existing districts, and force new elections before 2015.  The census bureau can compile population for existing districts if the state submits boundaries in time.

The Mississippi Constitution, last I checkd, actually says that redistricting takes place in 1982 and every 10th year thereafter, but it seems like that was igored in 1991, which was a Legislative election year in Mississippi like 2011 will be.  Legislative redistricting was delayed but because of Justice department non-preclearance (which may have been prompted by a lawsuit from Black legislators and civil rights activists under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act).  And there ended up being Legislative elections in 1992 for a three-year term.  See Mississippi Redistricting Cases:  the 1990s (http://www.senate.leg.state.mn.us/departments/scr/redist/redsum/MSSUM.HTM) (Watkins v. Maubus and the first Watkins v. Fordice).
I suppose failing to hold an election on new boundaries until 5 years after the census could also be considered a violation of Section 2.

Mississippi has submitted its current legislative districts to the Census Bureau (which has retabulated the 2000 Census on the post-2000 boundaries).  So it is conceivable that someone could also sue on equal protection grounds.

The 38 (of 122) Black majority House districts average 70% Black.  Once you get that high, it may be hard to back off, if you've connecting a bunch of small concentrations of Blacks.  How do you decide which get shifted into a White district, and which White areas get placed in the Black district, if you were trying to drop it to 60?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: J. J. on November 17, 2010, 09:18:37 AM
In PA Democratic Caucus, several leaders from Phila, Evans (Appropriations) and Cohen (Caucus Chair) lost their leadership positions within the party.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Dan the Roman on November 18, 2010, 01:45:28 PM
Reports of the NY Republican demise are greatly exaggerated.  If they can win back the suburbs, they will retain control of the State Senate through the decade.  That rebuilding process began in 2009 and continued to grow in 2010. 

They needed a heavily gerrymandered map and a Republican wave year to get above parity and hold onto 32-30. The next map, even if drawn by Republicans to continue to crack Long Island's minority communities and upstate Democratic districts, will be hampered by the law change making it impossible to county downstate prisoners as residents of underpopulated northern Republican districts. The Democrats aren't holding any untenable districts that I know of, considering that Aubertine and the guy on Suffolk County lost, while the Republican in Buffalo is in a weak position and there are Republicans representing places like Rochester and central Nassau who would be in tough shape even if the suburbs started voting like it was 1988 again.

We'll see what happens next year when we have new maps (likely drawn by Republicans, although with difficulty) and a Presidential election year.


Assuming the Democrat incumbent keeps her narrow lead in SD-37, Democrats hold seats in the Bronx/NYC northern suburbs that can easily go over to the Republicans if redrawn correctly (cramming minority areas of Westchester into a Democratic stronghold district and making a seat or two for Republicans out of the residual).  If I'm not mistaken, two of those seats had two Republican incumbents last time the lines were drawn to try to keep both in power (including one that contained much of the Bronx before the incumbent Republican was indicted).  Westchester and Rockland have enough Republicans that they should be able to elect at least one more Republican to the NYS Senate, if not two.

The GOP is not going to get free-reign to draw a gerrymandered w NY senate map. Everyone here is making the same mistake they are making with Virginia. Overrating the strength of a doomed majority in one chamber when the rest of the process is controlled by the other party. I told everyone here that the map with a GOP 34-28 majority would look vastly different than one with a 32-30 one, especially if in the best year for the GOP in decades they could only manage a majority at all by 400 or so votes, and with one senator in a 70% Obama district. Because there is virtually no chance of the GOP holding the chamber on anything resembling the current lines in 2012(ditto for the Dems in the VA senate) the Democrats have the ability to send the map to the courts and then revisit the issue in 2013.

Therefore like in VA, what is going to happen is that there are going to be incumbent protection maps which contrary to the above does not include a GOP gerrymander in the Senate. The current 32(or 31 Republicans) will all be strengthened, but the present 30-31 Democrats will be made safe. And there is a limit to how much the some of the current Republicans can be strengthened, so the result will be a chamber the GOP is almost guaranteed to lose in the next decade.

What the GOP will however get from this will be the promise not to re-do the Congressional or Senate boundaries when that does occur. And because the Democrats in the NYS and NYA dont give a damn about congress that is where the concessions will be.

But the idea that any Democrats are going to be targeted in any possible Senate map is as absurd as the Democrats in the VA senate getting away with drawing the GOP leadership in that chamber out of their seats.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 18, 2010, 06:50:10 PM
Traditionally, each house of the legislature draws its own maps in Virginia, so there may be a Democratic gerrymander for the Senate and a Republican one for the House.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Kevinstat on November 18, 2010, 07:29:13 PM
Traditionally, each house of the legislature draws its own maps in Virginia, so there may be a Democratic gerrymander for the Senate and a Republican one for the House.

These are not traditional times.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 19, 2010, 02:13:31 AM
In PA Democratic Caucus, several leaders from Phila, Evans (Appropriations) and Cohen (Caucus Chair) lost their leadership positions within the party.

Hughes is the only Philadelphian in leadership in the entire legislature. Crazy.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Dan the Roman on November 19, 2010, 07:34:25 AM
Traditionally, each house of the legislature draws its own maps in Virginia, so there may be a Democratic gerrymander for the Senate and a Republican one for the House.

The Democrats will get a decent map, but even with one, I suspect their odds of holding on in 2011 are not good. And that in itself, is an argument not to torpedo the whole process in pursuit of said map. If the Republicans emerge feeling cheated, they are likely to be in a position to do something about it next year. Furthermore, like the Democrats in NY, the GOP wins(except on congressional districts, and only marginal there) if things are forced into the courts for one cycle.



Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: 5280 on November 19, 2010, 12:06:11 PM
http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_16653887 (http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_16653887)

Looks like Colorado Republicans have both House and Legislature control.  That was the last race called, and it was close.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on November 19, 2010, 01:47:13 PM
http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_16653887 (http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_16653887)

Looks like Colorado Republicans have both House and Legislature control.  That was the last race called, and it was close.

Hmm? Based on the "only toehold" comment in the article, I would expect the Dems still control the state senate.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: 5280 on November 19, 2010, 09:13:11 PM
http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_16653887 (http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_16653887)

Looks like Colorado Republicans have both House and Legislature control.  That was the last race called, and it was close.

Hmm? Based on the "only toehold" comment in the article, I would expect the Dems still control the state senate.
Even if it's one vote more for the REPs, they still have the majority regardless.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: jimrtex on November 20, 2010, 12:59:06 AM
http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_16653887 (http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_16653887)

Looks like Colorado Republicans have both House and Legislature control.  That was the last race called, and it was close.
In 2001, the Republicans had control of the House, Democrats had control of the Senate, each drew their own congressional plan, and the Senate refused to appoint conference committee members.  They wanted to split Denver, so might have lost some votes on a conference committee report.

A district court then drew the redistricting plan at the time appointed in the Constitution, even though nobody had ever heard of that interpretation, and it had never been followed before.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 20, 2010, 08:20:03 AM
Four Dems in the Alabama House are switching to the Republicans. Shocking. (http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/article/20101120/NEWS/101119568/1007?Title=GOP-super-majority-expected-in-House)


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 20, 2010, 09:58:39 AM
lol


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 20, 2010, 10:30:00 AM
Four Dems in the Alabama House are switching to the Republicans. Shocking. (http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/article/20101120/NEWS/101119568/1007?Title=GOP-super-majority-expected-in-House)

congratulations for them. now, they are in their party. dixiecrats aren't democrats.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Mjh on November 20, 2010, 10:46:42 AM
Four Dems in the Alabama House are switching to the Republicans. Shocking. (http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/article/20101120/NEWS/101119568/1007?Title=GOP-super-majority-expected-in-House)

Well why not? The Alabama Democrats are turning into the same permanent minority that the Alabama Republicans were from 1860 to 1960s-70s.
I assume the black vote is the only thing keeping them from being completely crushed.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Holmes on November 20, 2010, 11:03:04 AM
I really don't care, I don't know what sort of agenda the Alabama Republican party would wanna pass that's already not implemented anyway. Unless they wanna go the way of Oklahoma and start banning Sharia law. But I don't understand...

Quote
“The reason I’m switching is as plain as day,” Millican said Friday. “The people of Alabama spoke Nov. 2 and not only did the people of the state, but the people in my district, spoke with authority.”

What was this guy's margin of victory? Because it sounds like he cares more about what the state as a whole wants than who his district wants. It's like a Republican Californian assembly person or senator changing to Democrat after this election where Democrats swept everything... southern Democrats are weird. Power obsessed?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Dgov on November 20, 2010, 01:58:04 PM
I really don't care, I don't know what sort of agenda the Alabama Republican party would wanna pass that's already not implemented anyway. Unless they wanna go the way of Oklahoma and start banning Sharia law. But I don't understand...

Quote
“The reason I’m switching is as plain as day,” Millican said Friday. “The people of Alabama spoke Nov. 2 and not only did the people of the state, but the people in my district, spoke with authority.”

What was this guy's margin of victory? Because it sounds like he cares more about what the state as a whole wants than who his district wants. It's like a Republican Californian assembly person or senator changing to Democrat after this election where Democrats swept everything... southern Democrats are weird. Power obsessed?

Sort of.  The Reason most were Democrats to begin with were because the Democrats were the majority party and being the minority sucks.

In fact the only surprising result so far is that no Democratic house members have announced plans to switch.  The GOP picked up like 9 or so after 1994 from mostly Conservative districts (though admittedly there's not many of them left)


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 20, 2010, 02:21:00 PM
I really don't care, I don't know what sort of agenda the Alabama Republican party would wanna pass that's already not implemented anyway. Unless they wanna go the way of Oklahoma and start banning Sharia law. But I don't understand...

Quote
“The reason I’m switching is as plain as day,” Millican said Friday. “The people of Alabama spoke Nov. 2 and not only did the people of the state, but the people in my district, spoke with authority.”

What was this guy's margin of victory? Because it sounds like he cares more about what the state as a whole wants than who his district wants. It's like a Republican Californian assembly person or senator changing to Democrat after this election where Democrats swept everything... southern Democrats are weird. Power obsessed?

He was unopposed, as was Boothe. Hurst won by 3, and Vance won by 9.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Kevinstat on November 21, 2010, 03:10:21 PM
http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_16653887 (http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_16653887)

Looks like Colorado Republicans have both House and Legislature control.  That was the last race called, and it was close.

Hmm? Based on the "only toehold" comment in the article, I would expect the Dems still control the state senate.
Even if it's one vote more for the REPs, they still have the majority regardless.

I think brittain23's point was that the Democrats still have a majority in the State Senate (you had said that it "Looks like Colorado Republicans have both House and Legislature control," which one might interpret as your meaning "House and Senate").  Of course, with a Democratic Governor, the Republicans holding the State House may be more significant in the redistricting process (and in overall governance) than the Democrats holding the State Senate, even if their margin there is bigger.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: rbt48 on November 24, 2010, 09:46:24 PM
Here is a spreadsheet of the 2010 post-election state legislature lineup by party:

http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf (http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf)

Comments and corrections gladly welcomed.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Kevinstat on November 26, 2010, 11:51:20 PM
Here is a spreadsheet of the 2010 post-election state legislature lineup by party:

http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf (http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf)

Comments and corrections gladly welcomed.

77 Republicans, 73 Democrats and 1 Independent were elected to the Maine House of Representatives this year, but one Democrat (soon to be second-term Rep. Michael J. Willette of Presque Isle in House District 5 who is already counted and listed as a Republican here (http://www.maine.gov/legis/house/125cand/apparwin.htm) (his son Alexander (R-Mapleton), who was elected to the House in a neighboring district, apparently convinced him to switch parties)) announced he was switching parties a little over a week after his reelection (he got to vote for the Republican nominee for Speaker even though he couldn't have had his 15 day elligibilty period to vote in a Republican primary or municipal caucus, etc. finished by then), so, counting that switch, your table is correct for Maine (there were one Senate and three House recounts (all Republican requests that could only have increased their majority) but the leading Democrats hung on in all of those).

Why's the 0 for Independents and Others in the South Dakota Senate in boldface though?  At first I thought it was to represent a Republican Lt. Governor (does South Dakota even have one?), but then I saw that the Republicans have (or will have at least) an overwhelming (30 to 5!) majority in that chamber.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: rbt48 on November 27, 2010, 12:02:22 AM

77 Republicans, 73 Democrats and 1 Independent were elected to the Maine House of Representatives this year, but one Democrat (soon to be second-term Rep. Michael J. Willette of Presque Isle in House District 5 who is already counted and listed as a Republican here (http://www.maine.gov/legis/house/125cand/apparwin.htm) (his son Alexander (R-Mapleton), who was elected to the House in a neighboring district, apparently convinced him to switch parties)) announced he was switching parties a little over a week after his reelection (he got to vote for the Republican nominee for Speaker even though he couldn't have had his 15 day elligibilty period to vote in a Republican primary or municipal caucus, etc. finished by then), so, counting that switch, your table is correct for Maine (there were one Senate and three House recounts (all Republican requests that could only have increased their majority) but the leading Democrats hung on in all of those).

Why's the 0 for Independents and Others in the South Dakota Senate in boldface though?  At first I thought it was to represent a Republican Lt. Governor (does South Dakota even have one?), but then I saw that the Republicans have (or will have at least) an overwhelming (30 to 5!) majority in that chamber.
Thanks for the great update on Maine and for the South Dakota catch on the bold face.  I'll correct it promptly.  Yes, SD does have a Republican Lt Gov, though the bold face was just an error on my part.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: rbt48 on December 06, 2010, 11:21:46 PM
Looks like the Republicans have sealed a 32 to 30 edge in the New York State Senate.  I think the last losing Democrat is still talking of a court challenge, but his opponent was declared the victor.
http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf

Also, NCSL:  http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx?stateid=vt#data


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Frodo on December 09, 2010, 12:18:39 AM
Two more Democratic state legislators (this time, senators) in Louisiana have just switched to the GOP. (http://www.2theadvocate.com/blogs/politicsblog/111564744.html)  Before long, the entire Louisiana legislature will be under Republican control with just a few more defections.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Dan the Roman on December 09, 2010, 07:41:49 AM
Here is a spreadsheet of the 2010 post-election state legislature lineup by party:

http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf (http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf)

Comments and corrections gladly welcomed.

77 Republicans, 73 Democrats and 1 Independent were elected to the Maine House of Representatives this year, but one Democrat (soon to be second-term Rep. Michael J. Willette of Presque Isle in House District 5 who is already counted and listed as a Republican here (http://www.maine.gov/legis/house/125cand/apparwin.htm) (his son Alexander (R-Mapleton), who was elected to the House in a neighboring district, apparently convinced him to switch parties)) announced he was switching parties a little over a week after his reelection (he got to vote for the Republican nominee for Speaker even though he couldn't have had his 15 day elligibilty period to vote in a Republican primary or municipal caucus, etc. finished by then), so, counting that switch, your table is correct for Maine (there were one Senate and three House recounts (all Republican requests that could only have increased their majority) but the leading Democrats hung on in all of those).

Why's the 0 for Independents and Others in the South Dakota Senate in boldface though?  At first I thought it was to represent a Republican Lt. Governor (does South Dakota even have one?), but then I saw that the Republicans have (or will have at least) an overwhelming (30 to 5!) majority in that chamber.

I didn't realize that Alex's father was a Democratic rep. Wow, learn something everyday.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 09, 2010, 08:24:26 AM
Two more Democratic state legislators (this time, senators) in Louisiana have just switched to the GOP. (http://www.2theadvocate.com/blogs/politicsblog/111564744.html)  Before long, the entire Louisiana legislature will be under Republican control with just a few more defections.

It's now 20-18 in the Senate with a vacancy (a D-to-I switcher resigned, apparently) that the Republicans are expected to win in January.

One of the party switchers was at least honest about why: he wants to be the Senate President.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on December 09, 2010, 12:09:22 PM
Party switchers tend to be blatant opportunist pricks in Louisiana. Well I suppose everywhere, but in Louisiana especially so. That guy who ran against Landrieu in 2008 wasn't even a conservative Democrat initially, he ran for Senate in 2004 as the more liberal candidate.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: rbt48 on December 09, 2010, 08:55:51 PM
I wonder if there are three Arkansas state senators who might switch from D to R to flip that chamber?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 09, 2010, 09:08:52 PM
I wonder if there are three Arkansas state senators who might switch from D to R to flip that chamber?

Not likely. The Arkansas Democratic Party is almost as strong as that in West Virginia.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on December 09, 2010, 10:07:22 PM
I wonder if there are three Arkansas state senators who might switch from D to R to flip that chamber?

Not likely. The Arkansas Democratic Party is almost as strong as that in West Virginia.

What do you mean, "strong"? In terms of electoral strength, clearly not. Democrats retained strong majorities in the West Virginia legislature, whereas they had much reduced majorities in Arkansas even as Republicans failed to contest many seat (I believe the Republicans in fact won every single statewide race or state legislative seat they contested, indicating they almost certainly could have won more if they had contested them).


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: rbt48 on December 10, 2010, 09:27:13 PM
I wonder if there are three Arkansas state senators who might switch from D to R to flip that chamber?

Not likely. The Arkansas Democratic Party is almost as strong as that in West Virginia.

What do you mean, "strong"? In terms of electoral strength, clearly not. Democrats retained strong majorities in the West Virginia legislature, whereas they had much reduced majorities in Arkansas even as Republicans failed to contest many seat (I believe the Republicans in fact won every single statewide race or state legislative seat they contested, indicating they almost certainly could have won more if they had contested them).
... And, the Republicans won every statewide race in Arkansas except the governorship.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Frodo on December 10, 2010, 09:33:58 PM
I wonder if there are three Arkansas state senators who might switch from D to R to flip that chamber?

Not likely. The Arkansas Democratic Party is almost as strong as that in West Virginia.

What do you mean, "strong"? In terms of electoral strength, clearly not. Democrats retained strong majorities in the West Virginia legislature, whereas they had much reduced majorities in Arkansas even as Republicans failed to contest many seat (I believe the Republicans in fact won every single statewide race or state legislative seat they contested, indicating they almost certainly could have won more if they had contested them).
... And, the Republicans won every statewide race in Arkansas except the governorship.

And don't forget to add the offices of Attorney General, Treasurer, and Auditor to that list of positions still held by Democrats. 


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: nclib on December 10, 2010, 09:45:33 PM
Can anyone make a map of the relative GOP gains per state legislature (i.e. percent of Democratic seats that changed hands), since some states where control of chamber flipped, it was already close before the election, and also some states have different numbers of Representatives in their legislature.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 10, 2010, 10:18:52 PM
I wonder if there are three Arkansas state senators who might switch from D to R to flip that chamber?

Not likely. The Arkansas Democratic Party is almost as strong as that in West Virginia.

What do you mean, "strong"? In terms of electoral strength, clearly not. Democrats retained strong majorities in the West Virginia legislature, whereas they had much reduced majorities in Arkansas even as Republicans failed to contest many seat (I believe the Republicans in fact won every single statewide race or state legislative seat they contested, indicating they almost certainly could have won more if they had contested them).

The fact that they contested so few seats shows the institutional strength of the Democratic Party in Arkansas compared to the rest of the South.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Lunar on December 11, 2010, 05:30:22 PM
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1210/Two_black_Democrats_switch_party.html?showall


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on December 12, 2010, 07:16:11 AM
I wonder if there are three Arkansas state senators who might switch from D to R to flip that chamber?

Not likely. The Arkansas Democratic Party is almost as strong as that in West Virginia.

What do you mean, "strong"? In terms of electoral strength, clearly not. Democrats retained strong majorities in the West Virginia legislature, whereas they had much reduced majorities in Arkansas even as Republicans failed to contest many seat (I believe the Republicans in fact won every single statewide race or state legislative seat they contested, indicating they almost certainly could have won more if they had contested them).

The fact that they contested so few seats shows the institutional strength of the Democratic Party in Arkansas compared to the rest of the South.

And/or that that Republicans overestimated the Democratic Party's strength. The fact that they would likely have won more seats had they bothered to contest them makes it more likely for Democrats to switch, either because they're afraid they could lose if their seat was contested or that other losses will cause them to fall into the minority next time.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on December 12, 2010, 09:44:27 AM
I wonder if there are three Arkansas state senators who might switch from D to R to flip that chamber?

Not likely. The Arkansas Democratic Party is almost as strong as that in West Virginia.

What do you mean, "strong"? In terms of electoral strength, clearly not. Democrats retained strong majorities in the West Virginia legislature, whereas they had much reduced majorities in Arkansas even as Republicans failed to contest many seat (I believe the Republicans in fact won every single statewide race or state legislative seat they contested, indicating they almost certainly could have won more if they had contested them).

The fact that they contested so few seats shows the institutional strength of the Democratic Party in Arkansas compared to the rest of the South.

And/or that that Republicans overestimated the Democratic Party's strength. The fact that they would likely have won more seats had they bothered to contest them makes it more likely for Democrats to switch, either because they're afraid they could lose if their seat was contested or that other losses will cause them to fall into the minority next time.
Yeah, pretty much this. I doubt they switch while they're still in the majority though. If the Republicans ever get the majority there, I could see a lot of switches happening.

The West Virginia Democratic party really impressed me a lot more than the dems in Arkansas this cycle.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Lunar on December 12, 2010, 09:15:06 PM
Sen. Antoine Thompson, who lost to a Republican in one of the most Democratic districts in the state, ended the campaign with some $120,000 in the bank.

http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial-page/columns/bob-mccarthy/article282073.ece


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Sam Spade on December 12, 2010, 10:37:22 PM
For some reason, Democratic control of the NY State Senate always seems cursed.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on December 13, 2010, 12:54:00 AM
For some reason, Democratic control of the NY State Senate always seems cursed.
Probably a mix of being completely incompetent at campaigning and especially governing, plus a great GOP gerrymander of the state senate.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: jimrtex on December 13, 2010, 03:08:59 AM
The GOP in the Texas House will pick up either one or two seats this week, giving them a 2/3 supermajority.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on December 13, 2010, 10:04:07 AM
The GOP in the Texas House will pick up either one or two seats this week, giving them a 2/3 supermajority.

In what way are they picking up seats? Run-off, party switches?

What does a 2/3 majority bring?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Sam Spade on December 13, 2010, 10:51:56 AM
The GOP in the Texas House will pick up either one or two seats this week, giving them a 2/3 supermajority.

In what way are they picking up seats? Run-off, party switches?

What does a 2/3 majority bring?

It's basically a done deal.

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/12/will-republicans-claim-100th-s.html

Basically, it means that the Republicans can do anything procedurally.

In cross-referencing threads, what happened is that any Democrat outside of the major metro areas in Texas (or South Texas) who was not uncontested got beat, as Republicans encouraged the rural voters to vote straight-party, and they did.  You see, Democrats, prior to this election, still dominated local offices in all of these rural areas.  They got completely wiped out.  This has all Democrats left in these areas running scared (for obvious reasons).

Ritter's HD is 66% McCain.  Pena's HD is 77% Obama, so me no understand that one.  But the simple point, is that rural Texas Dems were eliminated, basically in one fell swoop, in this election.  That's the "real" realignment that Al mentioned.  Ritter is the last one in the Texas House.

The only other (sort of) one left is Eiland (McCain 53%), though that's really not rural district.  And Gallego (McCain 51%), but that district is strange.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: jimrtex on December 13, 2010, 09:19:17 PM
The GOP in the Texas House will pick up either one or two seats this week, giving them a 2/3 supermajority.

In what way are they picking up seats? Run-off, party switches?

What does a 2/3 majority bring?

It's basically a done deal.

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/12/will-republicans-claim-100th-s.html

Basically, it means that the Republicans can do anything procedurally.

In cross-referencing threads, what happened is that any Democrat outside of the major metro areas in Texas (or South Texas) who was not uncontested got beat, as Republicans encouraged the rural voters to vote straight-party, and they did.  You see, Democrats, prior to this election, still dominated local offices in all of these rural areas.  They got completely wiped out.  This has all Democrats left in these areas running scared (for obvious reasons).

Ritter's HD is 66% McCain.  Pena's HD is 77% Obama, so me no understand that one.  But the simple point, is that rural Texas Dems were eliminated, basically in one fell swoop, in this election.  That's the "real" realignment that Al mentioned.  Ritter is the last one in the Texas House.

The only other (sort of) one left is Eiland (McCain 53%), though that's really not rural district.  And Gallego (McCain 51%), but that district is strange.
Boyd Richie issued a rant about Ritter, so that one is a done deal.  Pena is still considering it.  But it pretty odd to have speculation, and then make a public confirmation that you are considering it.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: rbt48 on December 13, 2010, 11:24:38 PM
From a practical standpoint, I would think the 2/3rds majority means that the Democrats can't run to Ardmore OK to stop redistrciting from occuring.  The 100 Republicans would constitute a quorum.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Skill and Chance on December 13, 2010, 11:52:44 PM
From a practical standpoint, I would think the 2/3rds majority means that the Democrats can't run to Ardmore OK to stop redistrciting from occuring.  The 100 Republicans would constitute a quorum.

If they actually wanted to do this, they presumably could.  The Democrats still have 12 out of 31 seats in the State Senate.  I don't think they would have anything to gain by making a scene anyway, though.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on December 14, 2010, 09:55:50 AM
From a practical standpoint, I would think the 2/3rds majority means that the Democrats can't run to Ardmore OK to stop redistrciting from occuring.  The 100 Republicans would constitute a quorum.

If they actually wanted to do this, they presumably could.  The Democrats still have 12 out of 31 seats in the State Senate.  I don't think they would have anything to gain by making a scene anyway, though.

Yes, given the status quo maps are already a Perrymander, the difference between a court-drawn map and one drawn by a Republican legislature will not compare to the differences effected by Delay's 2004 remap or the redrawing of the legislature.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Brittain33 on December 14, 2010, 03:12:46 PM
Is Peņa angling for a gubernatorial appointment after he's served his purpose in this term of the legislature? Was he paid off somehow? He won't be reelected in this district, so it won't serve his political career, but I could see him finding an alternative to being a minority party legislator appealing.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: jimrtex on December 14, 2010, 05:16:21 PM
Is Peņa angling for a gubernatorial appointment after he's served his purpose in this term of the legislature? Was he paid off somehow? He won't be reelected in this district, so it won't serve his political career, but I could see him finding an alternative to being a minority party legislator appealing.

"What I learned as a child and learned from my parents are reflected in the Republican party." -Aaron Pena, now an R.

HD 41 was only 57% for Obama, and Hidalgo County should have 4+ districts, with the partial district going into Cameron County.  HD 43, the district that is partially in Cameron County was 58% Obama, but might have been fairly competitive in Cameron county, so it might be possible to create a district that Pena could win.  He almost got beat in the primary in 2008, so he didn't necessarily have a save seat anyhow.

Legislators only get paid $7600 per year, and ordinarily only meet in odd years.  So almost all legislators have a real income elsewhere.

An appeals court seat is a possibility.  The district goes up along the coast past Corpus Christi, and is competitive for a Republican, at least in gubernatorial election years.   Another possibility is SOS, which has a function dealing with border affairs.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: rbt48 on December 14, 2010, 06:49:58 PM
Are the current Texas state legislative districts the ones drawn following the 2000 census?  I did not think that Delay's redistricting plan affected them--I thought his plan only redrew the Congressional districts.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: - on December 14, 2010, 06:57:46 PM
Yeah, every Democrat in my state is going to be screwed with Brownback as Governor...


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: jimrtex on December 14, 2010, 07:22:00 PM
Is Peņa angling for a gubernatorial appointment after he's served his purpose in this term of the legislature? Was he paid off somehow? He won't be reelected in this district, so it won't serve his political career, but I could see him finding an alternative to being a minority party legislator appealing.

Pretty interesting interview.  Listen to the sound clips.

 Aaron Peņa Explains Decision to Join GOP Party  (http://www.texastribune.org/texas-legislature/texas-legislature/aaron-pea-explains-decision-to-join-gop-party/)


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 14, 2010, 10:09:03 PM
Just another day in New York... (http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/12/ny_senate_majority_leader_espada_stole_from_non-profit_say_feds.php?ref=fpblg) (With news like this, it's not exactly surprising that the Republicans won back the State Senate.)


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: jimrtex on December 14, 2010, 10:16:45 PM
Are the current Texas state legislative districts the ones drawn following the 2000 census?  I did not think that Delay's redistricting plan affected them--I thought his plan only redrew the Congressional districts.
The current districts were drawn following the 2000 Census, by the Legislative Redistricting Board (LRB).  Under the Texas Constitution, if the legislature fails to redistrict, the LRB draws the districts, which was what happened in 2001.  The LRB is comprised of the Attorney General (then John Cornyn); Lt. Governor (Bill Ratliff who had been chosen by the senators when Rick Perry became governor following George W. Bush becoming president); Speaker of The House (Pete Laney); Commissioner of the General Land Office (then David Dewhurst); and Comptroller (then Carole of the many names).

The reason that the legislature failed to draw legislative district boundaries in 2001, was because the House and Senate were under opposite party control, plus the Democrats had already decided to push congressional districting into the courts.

There are no equivalent provisions for congressional redistricting, which falls on the legislature under terms of the US Constitution that times, places, and manner of congressional elections is prescribed by the legislature of each State (subject to congressional override).

I suspect that the legislature will manage to redistrict the legislature in 2011, since there is no advantage to let the LRB do it if you are a Democrat.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: rbt48 on December 14, 2010, 11:06:18 PM
Yeah, every Democrat in my state is going to be screwed with Brownback as Governor...
I'd say that, after  this November's elections, redistricting will put Democrats behind the eight-ball in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana (probably), North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma,and Wyoming, in addition to Texas and Kansas.  Of course, regarding Congress,  Pennsylvania, Ohio, South Carolina, Louisiana, Michigan, and South Carolina can't get much worse for the Democrats.  Also, for the one-seat states, or already all-Republican states, redistricting won't change anything.  But the state legislative district boundaries will be less-favorable for Democrats like their worst dreams.  I'd add Florida except for the new non-partisan redistricting law. 

For Democrats, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Illinois, and Washington should offer some hope.  Hawaii too.  But most of these states can't get worse for Republicans.  I guess Illinois is the brightest spot for Democrats in terms of making things tougher for Republicans.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: HAnnA MArin County on December 15, 2010, 01:32:56 AM
Can anyone make a map of the relative GOP gains per state legislature (i.e. percent of Democratic seats that changed hands), since some states where control of chamber flipped, it was already close before the election, and also some states have different numbers of Representatives in their legislature.

(
)

I think I did this correctly, nclib. Had to research how to figure out the arithmetic correctly, but I think this is what you're looking for. To determine the percentage change, I took the number of seats that the Democrats held after the 2010 midterm elections and subtracted that from the number of seats the Democrats held before the midterms.

The map is just for the state House of Representatives (I'll do the state Senates after I post this) and just shows the percentage of seats that Democrats lost (colored in red). California is blue because Republicans lost a seat there (only state in the nation where Democrats gained "seats" in the state House of Representatives). Gray states indicate those where no elections were held or there was no change in party composition, and Nebraska is colored green since they have a unicameral/nonpartisan legislature.

Here's my math, in case you want to double check my work. I organized it from greatest Democratic seat losses to lowest.

PERCENTAGE OF DEMOCRATIC HOUSE SEAT LOSSES
New Hampshire: (225 - 102 = 123/225 = 54.667%)
Wyoming: (19 - 10 = 9/19 = 47.368%)
Alabama: (62 - 39 = 23/62 = 37.097%)
Montana: (50 - 32 = 18/50 = 36.000%)
Texas: (74 - 49 = 25/74 = 33.784%)
Kansas: (49 - 33 = 16/49 = 32.653%)
Tennessee: (49 - 34 = 15/49 = 30.612%)
North Dakota: (36 - 25 = 11/36 = 30.556%)
Michigan: (67 - 47 = 20/67 = 29.851%)
Iowa: (57 - 40 = 17/57 = 29.825%)
Minnesota: (87 - 62 = 25/87 = 28.736%)
Idaho: (18 - 13 = 5/18 = 27.778%)
Wisconsin: (52 - 38 = 14/52 = 26.923%)
Ohio: (53 - 40 = 13/53 = 24.528%)
Maine: (95 - 72 = 23/95 = 24.211%)
North Carolina: (68 - 52 = 16/68 = 23.529%)
Arkansas: (72 - 55 = 17/72 = 23.611%)
Missouri: (74 - 57 = 17/74 = 22.973%)
Utah: (22 - 17 = 5/22 = 22.727%)
Oklahoma: (40 - 31 = 9/40 = 22.500%)
Indiana: (52 - 41 = 11/52 = 21.154%)
South Dakota: (24 - 19 = 5/24 = 20.833%)
New Mexico: (45 - 37 = 8/45 = 17.778%)
Arizona: (24 - 20 = 4/24 = 16.667%)
Oregon: (36 - 30 = 6/36 = 16.667%)
Colorado: (38 - 32 = 6/38 = 15.789%)
Pennsylvania: (104 - 91 = 13/104 = 12.500%)
Washington: (64 - 56 = 8/64 = 12.500%)
Georgia: (75 - 66 = 9/75 = 12.000%)
Connecticut: (113 - 100 = 13/113 = 11.504%)
Florida: (44 - 39 = 5/44 = 11.364%)
Alaska: (18 - 16 = 2/18 = 11.111%)
Kentucky: (65 - 58 = 7/65 = 10.769%)
Massachusetts: (144 - 129 = 15/144 = 10.417%)
South Carolina: (53 - 48 = 5/53 = 9.434%)
Illinois: (70 - 64 = 6/70 = 8.571%)
West Virginia: (71 - 65 = 6/71 = 8.451%)
Nevada: (28 - 26 = 2/28 = 7.143%)
New York: (107 - 100 = 7/107 = 6.542%)
Rhode Island: (69 - 65 = 4/69 = 5.797%)
Maryland: (104 - 98 = 6/104 = 5.769%)
Louisiana: (53 - 50 = 3/53 = 5.660%)
Hawaii: (45 - 43 = 2/45 = 4.444%)
Mississippi: (75 - 72 = 3/75 = 4.000%)
Vermont: (95 - 92 = 3/95 = 3.158%)

PERCENTAGE OF REPUBLICAN HOUSE SEAT LOSSES
California: (29 - 28 = 1/29 = 3.448%)


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Nichlemn on December 15, 2010, 05:55:34 AM
Nice map, but a couple of things:


- The Democrats gained 2 seats in the Delaware House.
- MS/LA should be grey because no elections were held, even if there have been some defections, because it makes it look like they didn't swing much.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: cinyc on December 15, 2010, 11:37:42 PM
Just another day in New York... (http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/12/ny_senate_majority_leader_espada_stole_from_non-profit_say_feds.php?ref=fpblg) (With news like this, it's not exactly surprising that the Republicans won back the State Senate.)

Ah, the wonderful Pedro Espada - so corrupt that he was booted from office in the Democratic primary.

Espada is far from the only crook in the New York State Senate.  Members of both parties are extremely corrupt.  They probably could arrest half the body if they seriously looked into their extracurricular activities.   Only a handful have even been brought up on charges so far.  


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Frodo on December 18, 2010, 01:21:43 AM
Louisiana House now officially has a Republican majority for the first time since Reconstruction (http://www.2theadvocate.com/blogs/politicsblog/112104779.html) -still awaiting word on the Senate...


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: redcommander on December 18, 2010, 02:37:00 AM
California officially proved how idiotic it is in voting when even the most liberal state in the union had a net loss of Democrats in the state legislature and it didn't. :P


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 18, 2010, 10:55:05 AM
California officially proved how idiotic it is in voting when even the most liberal state in the union had a net loss of Democrats in the state legislature and it didn't. :P

How about you stop whining about how the state you lived in didn't vote the way you wanted it to. It's getting really tiring.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: cinyc on December 18, 2010, 01:41:58 PM
California officially proved how idiotic it is in voting when even the most liberal state in the union had a net loss of Democrats in the state legislature and it didn't. :P

Please continue remarking about how the voters of your state didn't vote like the rest of the country.  It is relevant.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: redcommander on December 18, 2010, 03:09:23 PM
California officially proved how idiotic it is in voting when even the most liberal state in the union had a net loss of Democrats in the state legislature and it didn't. :P

Please continue remarking about how the voters of your state didn't vote like the rest of the country.  It is relevant.

I was just pointing it out. The state is just too far gone to have a wave affect them anymore I guess.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: ajc0918 on December 18, 2010, 04:41:01 PM
Seems to me like the blue dogs could soon become extinct.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Frodo on December 18, 2010, 05:39:47 PM
Seems to me like the blue dogs could soon become extinct.

In the South, perhaps.  Though we'll have to see if you can hold on to what you have just won, as well as take over the remaining southern Blue Dog strongholds in the Mississippi, Arkansas, and West Virginia legislatures, including the Louisiana and Virginia senate chambers, and the Kentucky house. 


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: rbt48 on December 18, 2010, 07:18:30 PM
I updated my state legislatures table with the latest information I have:
http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf (http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf)
If anyone has updated information, please post that intel.  I'm curious about the undecided state house seats in Indiana (1), New York (2), and Massachusetts (1).

I found a breakout of the officially non-partisan Nebraska Unicameral in the OWH:
http://www.omaha.com/article/20101122/NEWS01/711229930 (http://www.omaha.com/article/20101122/NEWS01/711229930)

It is amusing to me how, in spite of it being a non-partisan body, I can't recall a governor here filling a vacancy with someone from the other party, no matter how strongly the vacant district may be.  Ben Nelson appointed a Democrat to a very strongly Republican district in Sarpy County, for example.  Though, I do recall that Bob Kerrey appointed a Republican Attorney General when Paul Douglas was forced out of office.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Holmes on December 18, 2010, 09:33:04 PM
California officially proved how idiotic it is in voting when even the most liberal state in the union had a net loss of Democrats in the state legislature and it didn't. :P

Please continue remarking about how the voters of your state didn't vote like the rest of the country.  It is relevant.

Or perhaps, the rest of the country didn't vote like California. Hmm.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Mr.Phips on December 18, 2010, 09:49:38 PM
Yeah, every Democrat in my state is going to be screwed with Brownback as Governor...
I'd say that, after  this November's elections, redistricting will put Democrats behind the eight-ball in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana (probably), North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma,and Wyoming, in addition to Texas and Kansas.  Of course, regarding Congress,  Pennsylvania, Ohio, South Carolina, Louisiana, Michigan, and South Carolina can't get much worse for the Democrats.  Also, for the one-seat states, or already all-Republican states, redistricting won't change anything.  But the state legislative district boundaries will be less-favorable for Democrats like their worst dreams.  I'd add Florida except for the new non-partisan redistricting law. 


In most of these legislatures, Democrats cant possibly fall any lower.  In Alabama, Texas, South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Louisiana, Democrats are basically down to black/Hispanic majority and urban liberal districts.  In Idaho, Utah, and the Dakotas, Democrats are down to nothing but a few liberal inner city districts.  In Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Democrats were basically swept out of everywhere but inner cities and some traditionally Democratic maufacturing areas. 

Democrats are basically at the point in state legislatures(and the US House), where they have almost nothing left to lose.  Even the Southern and midwestern rural areas that held somewhat in 1994 left in 2010.  The former will likely come back in 2012 or 2014, but the latter will be very difficult. 


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: cinyc on December 18, 2010, 10:19:51 PM
I updated my state legislatures table with the latest information I have:
http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf (http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf)
If anyone has updated information, please post that intel.  I'm curious about the undecided state house seats in Indiana (1), New York (2), and Massachusetts (1).

As far as I know, there's only one Assembly seat up in the air in New York - AD 100 in Dutchess/Orange/Ulster.  The Republican won reelection in the close Westchester AD.  The Assembly is at 99-50.  I think Republicans need 51 to stave off a party-line veto override (which is kind of irrelevant with a Democratic governor, though).


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 18, 2010, 10:50:19 PM
It would seem to be even more irrelevant considering the Senate is held by the Republicans.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: rbt48 on December 18, 2010, 11:10:19 PM
I updated my state legislatures table with the latest information I have:
http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf (http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf)
If anyone has updated information, please post that intel.  I'm curious about the undecided state house seats in Indiana (1), New York (2), and Massachusetts (1).

As far as I know, there's only one Assembly seat up in the air in New York - AD 100 in Dutchess/Orange/Ulster.  The Republican won reelection in the close Westchester AD.  The Assembly is at 99-50.  I think Republicans need 51 to stave off a party-line veto override (which is kind of irrelevant with a Democratic governor, though).
Thanks!  I'll update the NY State Assembly to 99 - 50 - 1.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on December 19, 2010, 08:15:07 AM
Which districts in Mass and Indiana are undecided?



Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: jimrtex on December 21, 2010, 02:42:44 AM
There is a Texas House seat in Travis County that is being contested after a recount left it with a 12 vote margin.

Among issues are:

Overseas ballots where straight ticket votes for non-federal contests were not counted.  If a voter is permanently non-resident (residing overseas) they are only allowed to vote in federal races.  But they were sent regular ballots, with some races crossed off (it appears in somewhat haphazard fashion).  When the ballots were returned, new ballots were created with only the federal races marked.  This may have been improperly done, if a voter was eligible to vote a full ballot.

It appears some mail-in votes were not counted based on perceived signature mismatches, but where a signature appears to match that on the voter registration.

One ballot was not counted because it was mailed from within Travis County (in Texas, you can only vote by mail if you intend to be out of the county for both the early voting and election day; or are over 65, physically disabled, or incarcerated).  In this case the ballot was sent to Germany, but then the voter apparently returned and mailed it from inside the county.

Ineligible voters.  This claims up to 1900 ineligible may have voted.

In Texas, an election contest for the legislature is treated as a legal case, but is heard by the legislature.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on December 24, 2010, 11:07:32 PM
Which districts in Mass and Indiana are undecided?

None in Mass. The recount in the Worcester district finished long ago, and the Republican won 6,587 to 6,586.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: rbt48 on December 24, 2010, 11:15:03 PM
Do did Mass end up at 128D, 32R?


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on December 25, 2010, 11:45:39 PM

I believe that's correct.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Frodo on February 13, 2011, 01:06:10 PM
With Republicans likely to be formally in full control in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia by this time next year (as well as Kentucky five years from now), does anyone see Arkansas also going Republican within this coming decade?  It is the only remaining southern state (with the possible exception of West Virginia -but no one is sure whether it is 'southern' or not) with Democrats still in full control of the legislature.  


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: krazen1211 on February 13, 2011, 01:33:26 PM
With Republicans likely to be formally in full control in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia by this time next year, does anyone see Arkansas going Republican within this coming decade?  It is the only remaining southern state (with the possible exception of West Virginia -but no one is sure whether it is 'southern' or not) with Democrats still in full control of the legislature.  

If Obama gets re-elected they'll be gone by 2016.


Title: Re: State Legislatures and Redistricting
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on February 13, 2011, 01:53:00 PM
With Republicans likely to be formally in full control in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia by this time next year, does anyone see Arkansas going Republican within this coming decade?  It is the only remaining southern state (with the possible exception of West Virginia -but no one is sure whether it is 'southern' or not) with Democrats still in full control of the legislature.  
It's certainly possible. Right now the House is 55D - 44R. After being 72-28 the session before. The Senate is 20D - 15R after being 27-8. So they got destroyed in 2010. I imagine if they ever lose the majority they'll have so many party switchers they may never regain it.

West Virginia Democrats held up much, much better.