Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2010 House Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2010, 11:55:09 PM



Title: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2010, 11:55:09 PM
40% - Alan Grayson (D-Inc.)
27% - Daniel Webster (R)
23% - Others
11% - Undecided

The sole questions in the poll were the “horse race” question, party registration, age, gender and ethnicity. Public Policy Polling, of Raleigh, NC, conducted the poll. It was an automated telephone survey of 1589 registered voters in FL-8. The margin of error is 2.4%.

http://salsa.mydccc.org/o/30019/t/270/p/salsa/web/common/public/content?content_item_KEY=235

...

Maybe the Tea Party candidate is hurting Webster there, but 23% looks odd ...


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: Dgov on September 02, 2010, 02:54:50 AM
LOL.  The man is proudly demonstrating on his website the fact that a high-profile incumbent like himself is winning only 40% of the voters in the district.  I'm willing to bet 80-90% of those "Others" and "Undecideds" lean Republican (given that close to 45% of Self-identified Republicans apparently aren't yet backing Webster) and will come home for Webster in November.  No way Grayson, of all Democrats, is going to win 4-1 among independent voters.


Title: Internal Poll Dump (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 02, 2010, 07:04:28 AM
Okay, I'm tired of opening a new thread for every internal poll, so I'm just going to start posting them all in one place. Starting with this one:

Heath Shuler/NC-11 (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/08/tktktk-1.html):

Heath Shuler (D) - 51
Jeff Miller (R) - 34

Feel free to do the same.


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 02, 2010, 07:09:48 AM
Another fraudulent poll that identifies a no-chance-in-hell independent as a "Tea Party" candidate, huh?


Title: Re: Internal Poll Dump
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 02, 2010, 10:14:07 AM
Okay, I'm tired of opening a new thread for every internal poll, so I'm just going to start posting them all in one place. Starting with this one:

Heath Shuler/NC-11 (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/08/tktktk-1.html):

Heath Shuler (D) - 51
Jeff Miller (R) - 34

Feel free to do the same.

if this poll is an internal, the race is closer than I expected =/


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 02, 2010, 11:24:15 AM
I don't trust this poll at all. 23% other in a race where you would think conservatives and right leaning independents would be jumping at the chance to say they support Grayson's opponent is crazy. Sad to see PPP allowing themselves to be used as an obviously sh**tty internal poll.


Title: Re: Internal Poll Dump
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 02, 2010, 11:47:20 AM
This is a great idea, but I fear that it's slightly redundant -- the only real House polls we're likely to see are going to be internals.


Title: Re: Internal Poll Dump
Post by: Lunar on September 02, 2010, 12:09:40 PM
This is a great idea, but I fear that it's slightly redundant -- the only real House polls we're likely to see are going to be internals.

But said internals should not distract us from the ones that actually matter, the non-internals.

Support this idea.


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: DS0816 on September 02, 2010, 02:17:04 PM
If Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Florida #08) wins re-election, in a Republian Wave election year, it will be another example of Washington, D.C. Democrats having made a fatal mistake of acting like The New Republicans. Most of the losses, in the House, will come from the Blue Dogs. The … "centrists."


Title: Re: Internal Poll Dump
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 02, 2010, 05:51:42 PM
FL-25/Joe Garcia (http://www.scribd.com/doc/36813506/Memo-on-Garcia-Poll):

Joe Garcia (D) - 40
David Rivera (R) - 36

There's also one for CT-04/Dan Debicella that's being bounced around, with no actual source:

Jim Himes (D) - 42
Dan Debicella (R) - 38


Title: Re: Internal Poll Dump
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 02, 2010, 06:38:32 PM
I guess that FL-25 poll is right. garcia can win this election. the year is bad for democrats, I know. but garcia can appeal to the Republican cuban-americans.


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 02, 2010, 06:45:09 PM
If this poll is accurate, does it mean that voters prefer a person who has real principles than one who "becomes" a conservative to be reelected??


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: Verily on September 02, 2010, 06:50:42 PM
If this poll is accurate, does it mean that voters prefer a person who has real principles than one who "becomes" a conservative to be reelected??

It's no shock that voters like pugnacious politicians, something some Republicans, but very few Democrats save Grayson, seem to have learned as a campaign tactic. Further bad news for governance, though, even if one agrees with Grayson.

I've always had a hunch that Grayson would be reelected fairly solidly, although this poll does not appear to prove anything.


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: Dgov on September 02, 2010, 08:16:09 PM
If this poll is accurate, does it mean that voters prefer a person who has real principles than one who "becomes" a conservative to be reelected??

See my post above.  The Fact that he's actually under-polling by so so much in this district (40% is one of the lowest I've seen for an incumbent Democrat this cycle) suggest that his "lead" comes far more from a fractured opposition than from his own likability or support.  Let me make a bet that the 23% in this poll that supports an "Other" candidate aren't referring to the Green party ticket line.

I'll bet he loses, at best (for him) 45-55 in November.


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 03, 2010, 07:35:48 AM
If this poll is accurate, does it mean that voters prefer a person who has real principles than one who "becomes" a conservative to be reelected??

See my post above.  The Fact that he's actually under-polling by so so much in this district (40% is one of the lowest I've seen for an incumbent Democrat this cycle) suggest that his "lead" comes far more from a fractured opposition than from his own likability or support.  Let me make a bet that the 23% in this poll that supports an "Other" candidate aren't referring to the Green party ticket line.

I'll bet he loses, at best (for him) 45-55 in November.

I think grayson will be reelected. he has the money, and the charisma. and his district is not that conservative.


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 03, 2010, 07:53:59 AM
I think grayson will be reelected. he has the money, and the charisma. and his district is not that conservative.

This guy has all the charm of Bob Dornan.


Title: Re: Internal Poll Dump
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 03, 2010, 09:38:47 AM
FL-25/Joe Garcia (http://www.scribd.com/doc/36813506/Memo-on-Garcia-Poll):

Joe Garcia (D) - 40
David Rivera (R) - 36


Cool.


Title: Re: Internal Poll Dump
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 03, 2010, 12:17:52 PM
Is David Rivera the crazy one who's been on the blogs/news so much lately? If so, than that numbers not totally surprising.


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: Eraserhead on September 03, 2010, 01:22:06 PM
Grayson seems kind of slimy on a personal level. I'm pulling for him just because him winning would annoy right-wingers.


Title: Re: Internal Poll Dump
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 03, 2010, 01:52:25 PM
Is David Rivera the crazy one who's been on the blogs/news so much lately? If so, than that numbers not totally surprising.

The one that beat up his girlfriend and then drove his car into a truck transporting his opponent's mailers attacking him for beating up his girlfriend, yes.


Title: Re: Internal Poll Dump
Post by: Eraserhead on September 03, 2010, 03:58:47 PM
I want to see some polling of NY-20 and NY-19, preferably non-internal polling, but I'll take what I can get.


Title: Re: Internal Poll Dump
Post by: Rowan on September 03, 2010, 04:19:00 PM
FL-25/Joe Garcia (http://www.scribd.com/doc/36813506/Memo-on-Garcia-Poll):

Joe Garcia (D) - 40
David Rivera (R) - 36


Cool.

The poll has 5% going for a random "tea party" candidate. Not gonna happen.


Title: Re: Internal Poll Dump
Post by: Dgov on September 03, 2010, 07:21:14 PM
FL-25/Joe Garcia (http://www.scribd.com/doc/36813506/Memo-on-Garcia-Poll):

Joe Garcia (D) - 40
David Rivera (R) - 36


Cool.

The poll has 5% going for a random "tea party" candidate. Not gonna happen.

Don't be so sure.  This is the only Democratic strategy this cycle that might actually work for them.


Title: Re: Internal Poll Dump
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on September 03, 2010, 07:28:33 PM
FL-25/Joe Garcia (http://www.scribd.com/doc/36813506/Memo-on-Garcia-Poll):

Joe Garcia (D) - 40
David Rivera (R) - 36


Cool.

The poll has 5% going for a random "tea party" candidate. Not gonna happen.

Don't be so sure.  This is the only Democratic strategy this cycle that might actually work for them.

     When the only strategy that might work for you is affixing the "tea party" label to random dead-in-the-water independents who won't have any such label on the November ballot so as to deflate the numbers of your opponents in internal polls, you know you're in trouble.


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: nhmagic on September 03, 2010, 10:05:21 PM
I think Grayson's funny - his views are atrocious, but he says some of that stuff that you guys will one day wish he had not.  I would almost say re-elect him, but we need every person to pitch in to repeal Obamacare.


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 03, 2010, 10:23:45 PM
Grayson is brilliant. Watch him cruise to victory. People need to remember that he acts the way that he does for a reason and not because he is a loon. Grayson shows how fighting back against the Republicans works, although I dislike his methods. Grayson positions himself very well and actually manages to be on the right side of most if not all of the issues. I'd place a bet that more Grayson-like characters are going to start popping up in the Democratic Party, especially if Obama is defeated in 2012.


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: Vepres on September 03, 2010, 11:50:53 PM
Grayson is brilliant. Watch him cruise to victory. People need to remember that he acts the way that he does for a reason and not because he is a loon. Grayson shows how fighting back against the Republicans works, although I dislike his methods. Grayson positions himself very well and actually manages to be on the right side of most if not all of the issues. I'd place a bet that more Grayson-like characters are going to start popping up in the Democratic Party, especially if Obama is defeated in 2012.

The problem is he comes off as an arrogant jerk, and that he represents a swing district.


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: minionofmidas on September 04, 2010, 06:25:10 AM
A swing district full of suburban partisans, to boot.

Which means that my prediction is that he'll do right about as well as he would have if he were a blue dog type (ie, lose, if the wave happens on the magnitude we're expecting, and unless his opponent is total trash.)


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: Holmes on September 04, 2010, 10:11:37 AM
He's the Democratic Bachmann, obviously.


Title: Re: FL-08/PPP (D): In internal, Rep. Grayson (D) leads by 13
Post by: minionofmidas on September 04, 2010, 12:40:17 PM
He's the Democratic Bachmann, obviously.
Bachmann's seat is also polarized, and not supermajority Republican - but it's still a solid majority. It's not a genuine swing district.


Title: Re: Internal Poll Dump
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 04, 2010, 07:50:52 PM
Mariannette Miller-Meeks/IA-02 (http://www.millermeeks.com/news/release-polling-data-shows-miller-meeks-has-made-ia-2-one-of-the-most-competitive-districts-in-the-country):

Dave Loebsack (D) - 46
MMM (R) - 41


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 05, 2010, 10:00:20 AM
Mariannette Miller-Meeks/IA-02 (http://www.millermeeks.com/news/release-polling-data-shows-miller-meeks-has-made-ia-2-one-of-the-most-competitive-districts-in-the-country):

Dave Loebsack (D) - 46
MMM (R) - 41


Loebsack is safe. FANTASTIC!


Title: Re: Internal Poll Dump
Post by: Torie on September 05, 2010, 10:27:15 AM
Mariannette Miller-Meeks/IA-02 (http://www.millermeeks.com/news/release-polling-data-shows-miller-meeks-has-made-ia-2-one-of-the-most-competitive-districts-in-the-country):

Dave Loebsack (D) - 46
MMM (R) - 41


"A poll of 400 likely voters conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research between June 23rd and June 25th ... ."  I guess the Pony Express took a wrong turn in delivering this exciting news to the public square or something. :)

But hey, if it were close in June, ... 


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: DrScholl on September 05, 2010, 10:33:02 AM
Loebsack's not going anywhere, the only seat in Iowa that is really competitive this year is Boswell's. Besides that, a campaign's own internal showing them behind isn't a good sign.


Title: Re: Internal Poll Dump
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 05, 2010, 11:42:09 AM
Mariannette Miller-Meeks/IA-02 (http://www.millermeeks.com/news/release-polling-data-shows-miller-meeks-has-made-ia-2-one-of-the-most-competitive-districts-in-the-country):

Dave Loebsack (D) - 46
MMM (R) - 41


"A poll of 400 likely voters conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research between June 23rd and June 25th ... ."  I guess the Pony Express took a wrong turn in delivering this exciting news to the public square or something. :)

But hey, if it were close in June, ... 


Releasing an internal poll showing yourself down is basically saying "we have no shot".


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Holmes on September 05, 2010, 06:41:52 PM
Well, Torie fell for what they're selling.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2010, 09:55:28 AM
A poll for Childers (D-MS1) has Childers ahead by 5.

Childers: 46%
Nunnelee: 41%

The Democratic firm surveyed 400 likely voters in the district Aug. 30 to Sept. 1. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent, which means Childers' lead could be razor thin.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/117337-rep-childers-has-edge-on-gop-challenger-in-poll-


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2010, 11:14:13 AM
A poll for Perriello (D) shows Hurt (R) ahead:

44% - Hurt (R)
42% - Perriello (D)

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2010/09/with_new_poll_democrats_make_c.html


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 07, 2010, 11:31:51 AM
A poll for Perriello (D) shows Hurt (R) ahead:

44% - Hurt (R)
42% - Perriello (D)

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2010/09/with_new_poll_democrats_make_c.html

He's worried that  he will be triaged out. This poll was for Pelosi.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 07, 2010, 12:24:00 PM
DCCC/Dem Internal Dump: http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7538/dccc-releases-internals-from-five-districts

AL-02
Bobby Bright (D-inc): 52
Martha Roby (R): 43

NC-08
Larry Kissell (D-inc): 48
Harold Johnnson (R): 36
Thomas Hill (L): 6

NY-24
Mike Arcuri (D-inc): 50
Richard Hanna (R): 37

SD-AL
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 50
Kristi Noem (R): 39
B. Thomas Marking (I): 4

VA-05
Tom Perriello (D-inc): 42
Rob Hurt (R): 44
Jeff Clark (T): 6

IL-10 (May in parentheses)
Dan Seals (D): 49 (46)
Bob Dold (R): 36 (38)

MS-01
Travis Childers (D-inc): 46
Alan Nunnelee (R): 41

PA-04
Jason Altmire (D-inc): 51
Keith Rothfus (R): 24


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 07, 2010, 12:33:42 PM
Campaign Spot has put up an internal GOP poll for CT-5 showing Murphy (D) ahead by 1%, 40%-39%.

A remarkable across the board Dem surge in the post above, I must say.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Rowan on September 07, 2010, 12:39:27 PM
Since today seems to be internal day, here's another:

KS-04

Pompeo(R): 50%
Goyle(D): 47%

http://www.scribd.com/doc/37051149/Raj-Goyle-August-2010-Poll


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2010, 12:44:26 PM
Since today seems to be internal day, here's another:

KS-04

Pompeo(R): 50%
Goyle(D): 47%

http://www.scribd.com/doc/37051149/Raj-Goyle-August-2010-Poll

This poll is almost 1 month old and was conducted at the same time as the SUSA poll, which had Pompeo up by only 7 points - before the racist postings of Pompeo.

The DCCC should probably put some money into this district.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2010, 12:55:28 PM
Today is really a good day for internals.

Action Solutions for William Lawson (R-NC 04):

46.5% - William Lawson (R)
46.1% - David Price (D-Incumbent)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20100907/pl_usnw/DC60126


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 07, 2010, 12:57:06 PM
Today is really a good day for internals.

Action Solutions for William Lawson (R-NC 04):

46.5% - William Lawson (R)
46.1% - David Price (D-Incumbent)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20100907/pl_usnw/DC60126

wtf?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2010, 12:59:50 PM
Today is really a good day for internals.

Action Solutions for William Lawson (R-NC 04):

46.5% - William Lawson (R)
46.1% - David Price (D-Incumbent)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20100907/pl_usnw/DC60126

wtf?

Well, remember that Price was elected in the 80s, then got defeated in the 94 GOP wave and got the seat back in 1996.

It´s not that impossible that he loses again in a similar wave this year. In 2008, he got 63% to 37% against Lawson and a 13-point swing from 2008 to 2010 is not impossible.

We'll see ...


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Rowan on September 07, 2010, 01:06:13 PM
And here's yet another:

FL-24

Adams(R): 49%
Kosmas(D-Inc): 37%

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2010/09/gop-poll-shows-sandy-adams-beating-suzanne-kosmas.html


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Brittain33 on September 07, 2010, 01:17:17 PM
Campaign Spot has put up an internal GOP poll for CT-5 showing Murphy (D) ahead by 1%, 40%-39%.

I'm curious what goes on in your brain when you read a poll like that (other than a burst of happy surprise.) What adjustments do you make to the numbers for the final expected outcome, if any? Do you see the pendulum swinging further Republican in the next two months? What adjustments should Democrats make to Democratic internal polls, ig any?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2010, 01:17:47 PM

Public Opinion Strategies (R) for David McKinley (R-WV 01):

41% - Mike Oliverio (D)
36% - David McKinley (R)

McKinley's lead among voters who have an opinion of both candidates is 53 percent to Oliverio's 40 percent, Rob Autry, McKinley's polling strategist, said.

The survey by Public Opinion Strategies was conducted Sept. 1 and 2 and polled 500 likely voters. The company's clients are primarily Republicans, including Rep. Shelley Capito of West Virginia and Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

"They are the premiere polling firm on the U.S. political scene," said Steve Cohen, a McKinley spokesman.

http://www.newsandsentinel.com/page/content.detail/id/538821/McKinley-poll-shows-gap-closing-with-Oliverio.html?nav=5061


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 07, 2010, 01:22:18 PM
Down five in your own internal? lol


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Meeker on September 07, 2010, 01:22:32 PM
()

MORE INTERNAL POLLING GARBAGE PLZ


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 07, 2010, 01:43:47 PM
Campaign Spot has put up an internal GOP poll for CT-5 showing Murphy (D) ahead by 1%, 40%-39%.

I'm curious what goes on in your brain when you read a poll like that (other than a burst of happy surprise.) What adjustments do you make to the numbers for the final expected outcome, if any? Do you see the pendulum swinging further Republican in the next two months? What adjustments should Democrats make to Democratic internal polls, ig any?

I fit them into a matrix in my mind, compare them to other polls in other races, and am fully prepared to assume that they have a party bias, particularly if they seem out of line. The context of the internal matters too. Having a Dem poll dump like the above with numbers generally way out of line, suggests to me that it is quite likely that they are fund raising, or Pelosi triage insulating, spam or on the order thereof.

I don't take the CT-5 result too seriously. The pubbie is probably down by at least 5% in reality, and probably closer to 10%.  I discount it in part because it was released by the GOP candidate. It is also out of line with my vision of the current size of the wave; the elevation of the CD is a bit too high to be in that much danger of getting wet. Heck, it is not even one of the 113 districts that RCP has put up (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html) as being in some play, so maybe my use of the word "bit" should be changed to "considerably."  I am unaware of anything to adjust for individual candidate issues, in any event.

Oh, and if an internal polling outfit puts something out, which is then approximated by a respectable poll, and I remember the outfit, I then take their numbers a bit more seriously.

Another problem is data mining. It may be some campaign took 10 internal polls, and maybe stopped half of them in midstream when the numbers looked bad, and then finished one up when the numbers were looking much better (or finished 4 up, and then picked the best one to release). In that regard, it helps to keep the sample size down. Addendum: Notice that the Dems sat on this batch of polls for a week, and then dropped them against the generic bad news, and the triage story. I wonder how many internals the Dems did?  Did they just pick the best few out of 50?  That is another way to data mine.  Someone should ask them this question.

So, as usual, context is everything.

I think the odds are about 3-2 that the pendulum will swing back to the Dems somewhat, as voters near the end regress some towards prior voting patterns, and all that money the Dems spends, gets traction in some races. But it won't be enough for the Dems to avoid losing the House and probably losing around 50 seats. (I have the no swing number in my mind at 65 seats at the moment.)  And there is some chance the pendulum will swing a bit more against the Dems, or the turnouts on election day bite them in the ass more than anticipated. As a wild guess, I put 90 seats as the maximum "still on this planet" GOP gain.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Mr.Phips on September 07, 2010, 02:52:24 PM
Today is really a good day for internals.

Action Solutions for William Lawson (R-NC 04):

46.5% - William Lawson (R)
46.1% - David Price (D-Incumbent)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20100907/pl_usnw/DC60126

wtf?

Well, remember that Price was elected in the 80s, then got defeated in the 94 GOP wave and got the seat back in 1996.

It´s not that impossible that he loses again in a similar wave this year. In 2008, he got 63% to 37% against Lawson and a 13-point swing from 2008 to 2010 is not impossible.

We'll see ...

The NC-04 that Price lost in in 1994 was a signficantly more Republican district than the current NC-04.  Heavily Democratic Durham county is now wholly in the district, when none of Durham was in the district in 1994(it was split between NC-02 and NC-12).  Also, marginal to Republican leaning Wake county(where Heiniman got all of his margin) was wholly in NC-04 in 1994, where now, only a small portion is in the district and it will be completely drowned out by Democratic margins in Orange and Durham.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: ajc0918 on September 07, 2010, 03:12:43 PM
And here's yet another:

FL-24

Adams(R): 49%
Kosmas(D-Inc): 37%

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2010/09/gop-poll-shows-sandy-adams-beating-suzanne-kosmas.html

Good.
Kosmas could have been saved by not voting for healthcare. But she didn't.
She also COULD HAVE at least tried to stop NASA from cutting 14000 jobs after the shuttle program.

Oh well. bye bye


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: ajc0918 on September 07, 2010, 03:14:23 PM
Since today seems to be internal day, here's another:

KS-04

Pompeo(R): 50%
Goyle(D): 47%

http://www.scribd.com/doc/37051149/Raj-Goyle-August-2010-Poll

This poll is almost 1 month old and was conducted at the same time as the SUSA poll, which had Pompeo up by only 7 points - before the racist postings of Pompeo.

The DCCC should probably put some money into this district.

Do you really think this district is the least of their concerns?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Brittain33 on September 07, 2010, 03:18:08 PM
Kosmas could have been saved by not voting for healthcare. But she didn't.
She also COULD HAVE at least tried to stop NASA from cutting 14000 jobs after the shuttle program.
Oh well. bye bye

1. Not in a Republican wave this size, in a district full of olds, which was drawn by a Republican for a Republican who lost because of scandal.
2. Yes, a freshman representative could have single-handedly saved the shuttle program beginning in 2009. (14,000 jobs in that district? Really?)

I'd like to think that various Republicans who went down in 2006 and 2008 could have been saved if only they'd supported my legislative priorities and gone all-out for gay marriage, but I don't think that's reasonable. (Except maybe Musgrave...)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: ajc0918 on September 07, 2010, 03:37:31 PM
Kosmas could have been saved by not voting for healthcare. But she didn't.
She also COULD HAVE at least tried to stop NASA from cutting 14000 jobs after the shuttle program.
Oh well. bye bye

1. Not in a Republican wave this size, in a district full of olds, which was drawn by a Republican for a Republican who lost because of scandal.
2. Yes, a freshman representative could have single-handedly saved the shuttle program beginning in 2009. (14,000 jobs in that district? Really?)

I'd like to think that various Republicans who went down in 2006 and 2008 could have been saved if only they'd supported my legislative priorities and gone all-out for gay marriage, but I don't think that's reasonable. (Except maybe Musgrave...)

Did I say 14000, oh I meant 23000
http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20100226/NEWS0204/2260321/23-000-now-expected-to-lose-jobs-after-shuttle-retirement

and maybe she couldn't alone save the program, but she could have tried. I didn't hear anything on that.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Eraserhead on September 07, 2010, 03:44:10 PM
Somebody poll NY-19 and 20 already. Sheesh.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Brittain33 on September 07, 2010, 03:48:30 PM
Did I say 14000, oh I meant 23000
http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20100226/NEWS0204/2260321/23-000-now-expected-to-lose-jobs-after-shuttle-retirement

and maybe she couldn't alone save the program, but she could have tried. I didn't hear anything on that.

http://www.kosmas.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=269&Itemid=1


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: ajc0918 on September 07, 2010, 03:54:59 PM
Did I say 14000, oh I meant 23000
http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20100226/NEWS0204/2260321/23-000-now-expected-to-lose-jobs-after-shuttle-retirement

and maybe she couldn't alone save the program, but she could have tried. I didn't hear anything on that.

http://www.kosmas.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=269&Itemid=1

I stand corrected, is this still in legislation?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Smash255 on September 07, 2010, 05:27:27 PM
Today is really a good day for internals.

Action Solutions for William Lawson (R-NC 04):

46.5% - William Lawson (R)
46.1% - David Price (D-Incumbent)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20100907/pl_usnw/DC60126

wtf?


Under 40,  9.7%..........   Why bother releasing that??


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 07, 2010, 05:34:24 PM
Guess who won't be paying attention to this thread.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 07, 2010, 05:35:12 PM
I don't think Price is facing another 1994, somehow. I think the district was more Republican in the 90s, although I'm not sure (it had more of Chatham and Person and some different bits of Wake).


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 07, 2010, 07:12:42 PM
Oliverio is safe?? oh, so WV will have a dmeocrat delegation after 2010, it's becoming republican this year, like arkansas =)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Mr.Phips on September 07, 2010, 07:22:04 PM
I don't think Price is facing another 1994, somehow. I think the district was more Republican in the 90s, although I'm not sure (it had more of Chatham and Person and some different bits of Wake).

And the fact that Elaine Marshall will almost certain win the district solidly will help him big time.  In 1994, there was nothing at the top of the ballot to draw out Democratic voters.   


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: xavier110 on September 07, 2010, 08:42:17 PM

NY-24
Mike Arcuri (D-inc): 50
Richard Hanna (R): 37

LOL


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on September 08, 2010, 01:17:13 PM
Guess who won't be paying attention to this thread.

     Internal polls are obviously inferior to regular polls, but they aren't completely worthless. Releasing internals showing yourself tied or trailing is tantamount to admitting that you will lose, though there are uncommon cases where they do it on purpose to get money from the national party for races that are not yet on the radar.

     Point is, internals do contribute to developing one's picture of a particular race, though not in the same sense that regular polls do.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2010, 01:38:17 PM
Rep. Kissell (D-NC 08) is probably safe. Take a look:

The polling war in North Carolina's 8th district continued Wednesday with a new survey from Republican Harold Johnson's campaign showing the former sportscaster down just 5 points to freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D).

Johnson's poll, which was in the field Aug. 29-30, showed Kissell with 39 percent to Johnson's 34 percent, with the remaining 27 percent either undecided or favoring Libertarian Thomas Hill. The survey had a 4.9 point margin of error.

The poll of 400 likely 8th district voters was conducted for Johnson by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies.

The results paint a very different picture of the race than a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll from Aug. 25-29 that showed Kissell ahead 48 percent to 36 percent for Johnson. And just two weeks ago, Kissell's campaign released an internal poll that showed the Congressman up 49 percent to 32 percent. That survey was in the field Aug. 19-24.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/nc-johnson-poll-shows-race-tig.html


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on September 08, 2010, 01:41:27 PM
     Challenger down by 5 in his own internal poll with huge undecideds? Yeah, Kissell is in great shape.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Vepres on September 08, 2010, 04:57:37 PM
These internal polls are so contradictory when compared, ugh.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 08, 2010, 05:59:46 PM
And here I was thinking Kissell was in serious trouble. Now he's just in some trouble.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 08, 2010, 06:55:04 PM
Guess who won't be paying attention to this thread.

     Internal polls are obviously inferior to regular polls, but they aren't completely worthless. Releasing internals showing yourself tied or trailing is tantamount to admitting that you will lose, though there are uncommon cases where they do it on purpose to get money from the national party for races that are not yet on the radar.

     Point is, internals do contribute to developing one's picture of a particular race, though not in the same sense that regular polls do.
I know, it's just that it is really annoying to see people overreact to internals. It's obvious when a polls reflects what a certain candidate wants for fundraising. A good example is the internal showing Driehaus two points behind Chabot. All credible polls show Driehaus behind by at least 10 points. Chabot needed for the race to be thought of as tossup in order to get funding from the party and from individual donors. There is nothing credible about the poll, yet red avys got all excited. This applies to Republicans too.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 08, 2010, 06:57:42 PM
'polls'


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Mr.Phips on September 08, 2010, 07:02:51 PM
Kissell better thank god that there is a Senate race at the top of the ballot this year, unlike 1994 to draw out Democrats in Charlotte, which will likely be his entire margin of victory. 


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2010, 01:28:53 PM
A poll for Betsy Markey (D-CO 04):

38% - Markey (D)
38% - Gardner (R)
  5% - Waszkiewicz (I)
  2% - Aden (C)
17% - Undecided

http://www.coloradoan.com/article/20100909/UPDATES01/100909005/1001/NEWS/Betsy+Markey+campaign+poll+shows+her+tied+with+Cory+Gardner


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2010, 01:41:20 PM
Dan Benishek (R) seems to pick up a seat:

54% - Dan Benishek (R)
31% - Gary McDowell (D)

The poll, commissioned by Benishek's campaign and executed by Washington-based GOP polling firm TargetPoint Consulting (a favorite of the Bush II administration), has a 5.7 percent margin of error.

http://apps.detnews.com/apps/blogs/conventionblog/index.php?blogid=191


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2010, 01:47:24 PM
Here are a few AZ GOP internals:

AZ-01: 43% Ann Kirkpatrick (D), 43% Paul Gosar (R)

AZ-05: 46% David Schweikert (R), 38% Harry Mitchell (D)

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003729182


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 09, 2010, 06:10:56 PM
A poll for Betsy Markey (D-CO 04):

38% - Markey (D)
38% - Gardner (R)
  5% - Waszkiewicz (I)
  2% - Aden (C)
17% - Undecided

http://www.coloradoan.com/article/20100909/UPDATES01/100909005/1001/NEWS/Betsy+Markey+campaign+poll+shows+her+tied+with+Cory+Gardner

Tied even after ginning up 5% for an independent candidate that I had to look up? Bye, Betsy. Thanks for getting rid of Marilyn Musgrave.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 09, 2010, 09:10:13 PM
Here are a few AZ GOP internals:

AZ-01: 43% Ann Kirkpatrick (D), 43% Paul Gosar (R)

AZ-05: 46% David Schweikert (R), 38% Harry Mitchell (D)

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003729182

AZ-5 is gone for the Dems. I listened to the GOP candidate today. He was quite good, and the Dem voted for Obamacare after saying he would not. He's done.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 10, 2010, 07:11:22 AM
Patrick Murphy/PA-08 (http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/delco/Rep_Murphy_pollster_Very_tight_race.html):

Patrick Murphy (D) - 47
Mike Fitzpatrick (R) - 43

In response to this one for Fitzpatrick (http://www.pa2010.com/2010/08/gop-poll-memo-claims-7-point-edge-for-fitzpatrick/):

Mike Fitzpatrick (R) - 48
Patrick Murphy (D) - 41


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 10, 2010, 07:17:25 AM
Patrick Murphy/PA-08 (http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/delco/Rep_Murphy_pollster_Very_tight_race.html):

Patrick Murphy (D) - 47
Mike Fitzpatrick (R) - 43

In response to this one for Fitzpatrick (http://www.pa2010.com/2010/08/gop-poll-memo-claims-7-point-edge-for-fitzpatrick/):

Mike Fitzpatrick (R) - 48
Patrick Murphy (D) - 41


I rather liked Fitzpatrick. Good to see he'll be returning to congress.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 10, 2010, 09:24:25 AM
These polls are a month old (well a month for Murphy, and three weeks old for Fitz).  A lot has happened since then.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 10, 2010, 12:18:08 PM
Boren can also lean back and chill:

Rep. Dan Boren, who holds one of the best performing districts for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) still represented by a Democrat, led his Republican opponent by 34 points in a new poll funded by his campaign.

The poll showed Boren ahead of Republican Charles Thompson, a veterinarian and Iraq War veteran, 65 percent to 31 percent. Myers Research and Strategic Services conducted the poll from Sept. 7-8, interviewing 400 likely voters over the phone. The poll had a margin of error of 4.9 points.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/boren-easily-leads-thompson-in.html


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on September 10, 2010, 01:29:49 PM
Here are a few AZ GOP internals:

AZ-01: 43% Ann Kirkpatrick (D), 43% Paul Gosar (R)

AZ-05: 46% David Schweikert (R), 38% Harry Mitchell (D)

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003729182

AZ-5 is gone for the Dems. I listened to the GOP candidate today. He was quite good, and the Dem voted for Obamacare after saying he would not. He's done.

     If voters really cared about how the candidates sounded, Jan Brewer would be doing far worse than she is. :P At any rate, Schweikert is polling fairly well, but I think it is far too early to pronounce AZ-05 as gone for the Democrats.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2010, 08:57:39 PM
Four new Democratic internals

PA-12 - Grove Insight
Critz (D): 48%
Burns (R): 41%

NM-02 - Anzalone List Research
Teague (D): 51%
Pearce (R): 44%

KY-06 - Grove Insight
Chandler (D): 52%
Barr (R): 38%

OR-05 - Grove Insight
Schrader (D): 42%
Bruun (R): 29%

http://dccc.org/blog/entry/house_democrats_more_races_district_by_district


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2010, 09:04:24 PM
What is going on in NM-2?  Is Pearce a suck candidate or something?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on September 13, 2010, 09:07:37 PM
     Teague is leading by 7 in a Dem internal? This could be signalling movement back to Pearce. It could also be signalling nothing, but it's still interesting.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2010, 09:14:12 PM
     Teague is leading by 7 in a Dem internal? This could be signalling movement back to Pearce. It could also be signalling nothing, but it's still interesting.

Good point; the last poll showing Teague up by a similar amount was an independent poll, wasn't it?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 13, 2010, 09:20:37 PM
Good Lord, you people are lazy. It's on the first page!

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=123694.0

He was up 45-42.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on September 13, 2010, 09:21:36 PM
     Journal Poll isn't a familiar name to me. Are they any good?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 13, 2010, 09:25:30 PM
What is going on in NM-2?  Is Pearce a suck candidate or something?
Pearce left this district to run for the Senate in 2008 where he got beat badly. Don't know if that has anything to do with it.

Teague voted against health care and isn't exactly a weak candidate either.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Sam Spade on September 13, 2010, 09:26:17 PM
     Journal Poll isn't a familiar name to me. Are they any good?

Not bad historically, though they don't push the leaners.  Of course, New Mexico polling in summer (or anytime actually) is always a crap shoot.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2010, 09:31:50 PM
There've been some pretty rough attack ads run against Pearce recently as well.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2010, 09:34:04 PM
There've been some pretty rough attack ads run against Pearce recently as well.

Saying what?  What is the angle being used to trash him? 


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 13, 2010, 09:37:59 PM
There've been some pretty rough attack ads run against Pearce recently as well.

Saying what?  What is the angle being used to trash him? 
I've seen some environmental ads from environmentalist groups that weren't bad.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 13, 2010, 09:39:44 PM
Here we go:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RgZi_0ymc8&feature=player_embedded


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2010, 09:41:16 PM
^^^

That's the one.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 13, 2010, 09:46:44 PM
It is a very good ad.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2010, 09:58:03 PM
The sale of a business for twice its value to someone for whom he does favors, sounds like a crime to me. But yes, unless Peace can refute it, it is pretty devastating. Heck, without knowing more, I could not vote for him. Personal ethics means a lot to me.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 17, 2010, 05:31:44 AM
KS-04 Internal for Raj Goyle (D) (http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7612/ks04-susa-says-pompeo-leads-by-10-goyle-poll-claims-otherwise)

Raj Goyle (D): 44 (47)
Mike Pompeo (R): 46 (50)
Shawn Smith (L): 4 (-)
Susan Ducey (RP): 2 (-)
Undecided: 4 (3)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 17, 2010, 06:55:47 AM
Another one for Marianette Miller-Meeks in IA-02 (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/morning-fix/sarah-palin-surrogate.html#more):

Dave Loebsack (D) - 41
MMM (R) - 40
Gary Sicard (L) - 6

Same link has one for Frank Kratovil in MD-01:

Frank Kratovil (D) - 45
Andy Harris (R) - 39


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 17, 2010, 02:49:35 PM
Who on the IA-2 number, just wow.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Beet on September 17, 2010, 04:33:25 PM
Kratovil is ahead of Harris? Wasn't that supposed to be like the most vulnerable seat in the nation?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 17, 2010, 06:41:02 PM
Kratovil is ahead of Harris? Wasn't that supposed to be like the most vulnerable seat in the nation?

It was in the top 30. When we see anomalies like this, one needs to check if something odd and micro is going on in the district, or whether it might be just a bad poll, or whether something more systemic is going on, either in the state or regionally or nationally. I start off myself with the micro of course, after checking out whether the poll makes much sense.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Rowan on September 19, 2010, 09:02:08 AM
The simple answer that you are avoiding is that it's a Democratic internal.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on September 19, 2010, 12:13:33 PM
The simple answer that you are avoiding is that it's a Democratic internal.
Well yeah, but it's better than we'd been expecting even for internals. :P

The answer is that Harris is borderline unelectable, but not flat out so. He'll need a genuine massive wave for his persona to not matter. (In which case he'd win this district by a healthy margin.)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 19, 2010, 02:22:06 PM
I think the climate is such that a potted plant could win MD-01 as a Republican. Speaking of which, I wonder why E. J. Pipkin didn't run again.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 19, 2010, 02:26:12 PM
Kratovil is ahead of Harris? Wasn't that supposed to be like the most vulnerable seat in the nation?

It was in the top 30. When we see anomalies like this, one needs to check if something odd and micro is going on in the district, or whether it might be just a bad poll, or whether something more systemic is going on, either in the state or regionally or nationally. I start off myself with the micro of course, after checking out whether the poll makes much sense.
You say this right after saying "wow" on the Meeks internal. :P


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 20, 2010, 09:40:49 AM
NC-07 (POS for the Republican guy):

Public Opinion Strategies conducted the live interview poll on August 31 and September 2, with 400 interviews and a margin of error of 4.9 percent. In summary, Public Opinion Strategies stated, “A combination of a worsening political environment for Democrats and Mike McIntyre’s bad voting record has transformed this usually safe re-election coronation into the fight of McIntyre’s political life.”

Among “most likely voters,” challenger Ilario Pantano holds a 7 point advantage of 48 percent to 41 percent and among “very likely voters,” Congressman McIntyre is clinging to a single digit lead of 45 percent to 39 percent on the ballot test.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20100914006774/en


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Brittain33 on September 20, 2010, 10:33:19 AM
WTF with the massive swing between "most" and "very"?!


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on September 20, 2010, 10:36:56 AM
Something's wrong there. Probably misleadingly worded on purpose. Perhaps they mean those who say they'll "most likely" (ie probably) vote - as opposed to either the actual likely voters? I dunno.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 20, 2010, 10:40:38 AM
Something's wrong there. Probably misleadingly worded on purpose. Perhaps they mean those who say they'll "most likely" (ie probably) vote - as opposed to either the actual likely voters? I dunno.

Maybe the pollster is struggling with how high the black turnout will be.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 20, 2010, 12:42:06 PM
Earl Pomeroy internal:

Pomeroy’s campaign has released results of their third round of private polling this campaign cycle – indicating Pomeroy leads Berg, 46 percent to 44 percent, with 10 percent of voters undecided.

The Washington, D.C.-based Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group surveyed 501 likely North Dakota voters Sept. 10-12. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

Similar polls conducted in May and July by the research group also tilted in favor of Pomeroy by two or three percentage points, according to the campaign news release.

http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/291827/group/News/


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on September 20, 2010, 01:45:21 PM
     So the ND race is more or less where it was during the Summer. Good to know, given Rasmussen stopped with the regular updates of it.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Rowan on September 20, 2010, 04:55:10 PM
DCCC doing another internal poll dump:

FL-25

Garcia(D): 40%
Rivera(R): 33%

AR-01

Causey(D): 46%
Crawford(R): 44%

GA-08

Marshall(D): 48%
Scott(R): 36%

DE-AL

Carney(D): 50%
Urquhart(R): 32%


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 20, 2010, 05:00:42 PM
Makes you wonder what races the DCCC is polling but not releasing the results for.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Mr.Phips on September 20, 2010, 05:08:20 PM
Makes you wonder what races the DCCC is polling but not releasing the results for.

SC-05, PA-03, PA-07, PA-10, PA-11, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, MI-07, VA-02.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 21, 2010, 12:38:13 AM
Heck, he`s gaining !

Quote
Democrat Denny Heck is within the margin of error with Republican Jaime Herrera, according to an internal poll conducted for the Heck campaign and obtained by Roll Call.

While Heck’s poll finds Herrera at 47 percent and Heck at 44 percent, it’s an improvement from recent public surveys and past polling conducted for Heck’s campaign.

The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey of 502 likely voters was taken Sept. 7-9 with a 4.4-point margin of error.

Automated polls conducted by Survey USA found Herrera ahead by 13 points in August and 9 points in September. In June, a GQR poll conducted for Heck found him behind by 7 points.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_27/atr/50053-1.html

...

So, the 9-point SUSA lead isn´t so far off and they also have it getting closer.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Dgov on September 21, 2010, 02:22:50 AM
Heck, he`s gaining !

Quote
Democrat Denny Heck is within the margin of error with Republican Jaime Herrera, according to an internal poll conducted for the Heck campaign and obtained by Roll Call.

While Heck’s poll finds Herrera at 47 percent and Heck at 44 percent, it’s an improvement from recent public surveys and past polling conducted for Heck’s campaign.

The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey of 502 likely voters was taken Sept. 7-9 with a 4.4-point margin of error.

Automated polls conducted by Survey USA found Herrera ahead by 13 points in August and 9 points in September. In June, a GQR poll conducted for Heck found him behind by 7 points.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_27/atr/50053-1.html

...

So, the 9-point SUSA lead isn´t so far off and they also have it getting closer.

It's an internal, and one showing the payer losing.  In other words, about a 10-point edge for Herrera is likely


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 21, 2010, 07:29:24 AM
Ben Chandler/KY-06 (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/kentucky-chandler-poll-shows-2.html):

Ben Chandler (D) - 53
Andy Barr (R) - 33


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Meeker on September 21, 2010, 10:12:34 AM
Heck, he`s gaining !

Quote
Democrat Denny Heck is within the margin of error with Republican Jaime Herrera, according to an internal poll conducted for the Heck campaign and obtained by Roll Call.

While Heck’s poll finds Herrera at 47 percent and Heck at 44 percent, it’s an improvement from recent public surveys and past polling conducted for Heck’s campaign.

The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey of 502 likely voters was taken Sept. 7-9 with a 4.4-point margin of error.

Automated polls conducted by Survey USA found Herrera ahead by 13 points in August and 9 points in September. In June, a GQR poll conducted for Heck found him behind by 7 points.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_27/atr/50053-1.html

...

So, the 9-point SUSA lead isn´t so far off and they also have it getting closer.

Interesting that the only thing really changing in the two SurveyUSA polls and this one is Herrera's topline - it fluctuates from 54 to 47 whereas Heck's has only fluctuated from 41 to 44.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 21, 2010, 12:07:55 PM
Quote
State Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) has a 10-point lead over Rep. Joseph Cao (R) in one of the Democrats' best pick up opportunities of the cycle, according to Richmond's internal campaign polling.

The polling, leaked to Hotline On Call, shows Richmond leading Cao 45% to 35%. Democrats note that Cao's 35% is one of the lowest re-elect numbers they have seen for an incumbent this cycle.

The survey was conducted for the Richmond campaign by Anzalone Liszt Research from Sept. 12 to 15. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/richmond_leadin.php


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 21, 2010, 12:56:40 PM
A new one for AZ-05:

There's new evidence to support Democrats' claims that Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz.) is running a strong reelection campaign.

A new poll shows the two-term incumbent leading former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert (R) — albeit by a single point.

Mitchell had 45 percent support to 44 percent for Schweikert, with 6 percent for Libertarian Nick Coons and 5 percent undecided, in an internal poll obtained by the Ballot Box.

Harstad Strategic Research, a Colorado-based firm, conducted the survey of 509 likely voters Sept. 13-16. The firm's polling memo does not state the poll's margin of error.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/119961-poll-arizona-grudge-match-tied-

And 2 older ones for TN-04:

DesJarlais released an internal campaign poll conducted by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies on Aug. 10 and 12 that showed him trailing the Congressman 45 percent to 41 percent. That survey of 300 likely voters with a 5.7-point margin of error was dismissed by Davis’ camp.

The Congressman [Lincoln Davis (D)] released his own survey of 400 likely voters conducted Aug. 24-26, which showed him ahead 51 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error was 4.9 points.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Meeker on September 21, 2010, 12:59:56 PM
Good to know TN-04 is still in our column.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Dgov on September 21, 2010, 03:09:20 PM
Quote
State Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) has a 10-point lead over Rep. Joseph Cao (R) in one of the Democrats' best pick up opportunities of the cycle, according to Richmond's internal campaign polling.

The polling, leaked to Hotline On Call, shows Richmond leading Cao 45% to 35%. Democrats note that Cao's 35% is one of the lowest re-elect numbers they have seen for an incumbent this cycle.

The survey was conducted for the Richmond campaign by Anzalone Liszt Research from Sept. 12 to 15. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/richmond_leadin.php

Cao is down 10 in a Dem internal in the district?  This one might be salvageable after all.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 21, 2010, 06:50:53 PM
Cao released an internal poll earlier this year claiming a 25-point lead over Richmond.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: ajc0918 on September 21, 2010, 07:05:13 PM
Quote
State Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) has a 10-point lead over Rep. Joseph Cao (R) in one of the Democrats' best pick up opportunities of the cycle, according to Richmond's internal campaign polling.

The polling, leaked to Hotline On Call, shows Richmond leading Cao 45% to 35%. Democrats note that Cao's 35% is one of the lowest re-elect numbers they have seen for an incumbent this cycle.

The survey was conducted for the Richmond campaign by Anzalone Liszt Research from Sept. 12 to 15. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/richmond_leadin.php

Cao is down 10 in a Dem internal in the district?  This one might be salvageable after all.

GO CAO!!


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on September 21, 2010, 09:09:33 PM
     So Mitchell's in a world of hurt, eh? Not really a surprise, though I find it amusing how desperate they are to spin this as good news for Mitchell.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 21, 2010, 10:11:07 PM
     So Mitchell's in a world of hurt, eh? Not really a surprise, though I find it amusing how desperate they are to spin this as good news for Mitchell.
Supposedly it's not an internal poll. It was reported wrongly as one.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on September 21, 2010, 10:25:44 PM
     So Mitchell's in a world of hurt, eh? Not really a surprise, though I find it amusing how desperate they are to spin this as good news for Mitchell.
Supposedly it's not an internal poll. It was reported wrongly as one.

     Taking a look at their homepage (http://www.harstadresearch.com/) crowing about their role in helping elect various Democrats, they could have fooled me.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 21, 2010, 10:33:05 PM
     So Mitchell's in a world of hurt, eh? Not really a surprise, though I find it amusing how desperate they are to spin this as good news for Mitchell.
Supposedly it's not an internal poll. It was reported wrongly as one.
Maybe it wasn't commissioned by Mitchell then. That's just what I heard somewhere on the internets today. I could be wrong.
     Taking a look at their homepage (http://www.harstadresearch.com/) crowing about their role in helping elect various Democrats, they could have fooled me.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 21, 2010, 10:40:55 PM
Ben Chandler/KY-06 (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/kentucky-chandler-poll-shows-2.html):

Ben Chandler (D) - 53
Andy Barr (R) - 33

Did Chandler vote against the stimulus and Obamacare?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 21, 2010, 11:03:29 PM
Voted no on healthcare but yes on the stimulus.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 22, 2010, 12:25:21 AM
Periello still down in own poll:

September 21, 2010--Ivy, VA--With mounting concern over Robert Hurt's skipping debates and failing to explain his record on raising taxes, raising electricity bills, and opposing funding for education, voters of the 5th district are showing the contest in the 5th district remains extremely competitive. In a new poll, Congressman Tom Perriello gains 44% of voters and state Senator Robert Hurt gains 46%, tied within the poll's margin of error. Independent conservative candidate Jeff Clark gets 4% of voters, and 5% of voters remain undecided.

The poll was conducted by Benenson Strategy Group for the Perriello campaign. It surveyed 400 likely voters from September 14-16, 2010. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Click here for a memo prepared by Benenson Strategy Group outlining key findings of the poll.

http://perrielloforcongress.com/node/366


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Brittain33 on September 22, 2010, 07:11:03 AM
No-hope Democratic incumbents release internals showing them down 2. Way behind Republican challengers release internals showing them down 1 and the Democrat at 40 or below.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 22, 2010, 11:47:15 AM
MS-02:

35% Bennie Thompson (D-Inc.)
34% Bill Marcy (R)
31% Undecided

http://www.meridianteaparty.com/bombshell-thompson-marcy-race-a-toss-up/


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Joe Republic on September 22, 2010, 11:49:29 AM
lol


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on September 22, 2010, 11:52:26 AM
Is there any polling on Childers?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Brittain33 on September 22, 2010, 12:28:10 PM

A (D) poll had Childers up 46-41 last month. I'd be shocked if Childers survived this election.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 22, 2010, 01:35:08 PM
MA-04 internal for the GOPer:

48% Barney Frank (D-Inc.)
38% Sean Bielat (R)

The survey, conducted for Bielat's campaign by the firm OnMessage, polled 400 likely voters in Massachusetts' Fourth Congressional District after the September 14 primary election. The margin of error is +/-4.9%.

http://www.seanbielat.org/news/2010-09-22/poll-support-barney-frank-drops-below-50-bielat-within-10


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on September 22, 2010, 01:39:51 PM
Why even release an internal like that? I mean, that's basically called "conceding".


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 22, 2010, 01:42:30 PM
Why even release an internal like that? I mean, that's basically called "conceding".

Money. Bielat is a total unknown, and is polling where he is with almost no name recognition. In the case of MA-04, you expect Frank to win 70-30. A ten point race is something of a "thing," even if this poll means it's really twenty points.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 22, 2010, 01:45:00 PM
And here`s the next one for Rep. Ron Klein (D/FL-22):

48% Ron Klein
40% Allen West

The poll, by Anzalone Liszt Research was conducted from September 14 - 16 and relied upon 500 phone interviews with likely voters.

http://blogs.browardpalmbeach.com/juice/2010/09/poll_ron_klein_allen_west_22nd_congressional_district.php


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 22, 2010, 05:32:25 PM
MS-02:

35% Bennie Thompson (D-Inc.)
34% Bill Marcy (R)
31% Undecided

http://www.meridianteaparty.com/bombshell-thompson-marcy-race-a-toss-up/

This is why people don't trust internal polls.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: ajc0918 on September 22, 2010, 07:12:41 PM
And here`s the next one for Rep. Ron Klein (D/FL-22):

48% Ron Klein
40% Allen West

The poll, by Anzalone Liszt Research was conducted from September 14 - 16 and relied upon 500 phone interviews with likely voters.

http://blogs.browardpalmbeach.com/juice/2010/09/poll_ron_klein_allen_west_22nd_congressional_district.php

GO WEST


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 22, 2010, 07:30:26 PM
And here`s the next one for Rep. Ron Klein (D/FL-22):

48% Ron Klein
40% Allen West

The poll, by Anzalone Liszt Research was conducted from September 14 - 16 and relied upon 500 phone interviews with likely voters.

http://blogs.browardpalmbeach.com/juice/2010/09/poll_ron_klein_allen_west_22nd_congressional_district.php

GO WEST

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9G75tH2wfvQ


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 22, 2010, 10:18:41 PM
I wonder how Klein "inadvertently" releasing to thousands West's social security number, and then the classless way he handled the damage control (West is making a big thing over nothing because he is a paranoid type, but hey, just because, we will pay for two years the premiums to cover the damage to West from identity theft), will affect this race. I suspect it will defeat him frankly. It was all pretty disgusting, and right wing radio is all over it, and West is going to get a bunch more money to top off the fortune he already has.

I suspect this incident will be a game changer. We shall see.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 23, 2010, 12:56:55 AM
Ben Chandler (D-KY06) is in good shape. Poll for his GOP challenger:

49% Ben Chandler (D)
42% Andy Barr (R)

Barr's poll of 407 likely voters was conducted by the GOP firm the Tarrance Group and had a 4.9 point margin of error.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/new-kentucky-poll.html


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on September 24, 2010, 02:17:55 PM
Benishek (R) still favored to pick up a seat in MI:

The race to replace retiring Rep. Bart Stupak is essentially tied, according to a poll taken earlier this week for Democratic state Rep. Gary McDowell's campaign. The poll showed surgeon Dan Benishek  (R) ahead of McDowell 41 percent to 38 percent. Third party candidate Glenn Wilson got 12 percent, and nine percent were undecided.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner surveyed 505 likely voters Sept. 21-22, controlling for the district's large geographical spread over 31 counties. The poll had a margin of error of 4.4 points.

"I think that this race is clearly starting to take shape right now, and as more people get introduced to Gary McDowell they're seeing that Gary McDowell is the best Representative for this district," said McDowell campaign manager Daniel Krupnick.

The district has been a battleground for both parties since Benishek narrowly defeated state Sen. Jason Allen in the July 27 Republican primary. A number of outside groups have been involved in the race. Both House campaign committees, the American Future Fund and Americans for Prosperity have all run ads in the district already.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/mcdowell-poll-shows-a-tied-rac.html


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 26, 2010, 09:10:45 AM
Ann Kirkpatrick/AZ-01 (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/kirkpatrick-poll-shows-tight-r.html):

Ann Kirkpatrick (D) - 43
Paul Gosar (R) - 39

This is a little stale -- from late August.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Eraserhead on September 26, 2010, 11:59:54 PM
MS-02:

35% Bennie Thompson (D-Inc.)
34% Bill Marcy (R)
31% Undecided

http://www.meridianteaparty.com/bombshell-thompson-marcy-race-a-toss-up/

Ah, so did the polling method here just consist of blatantly making up numbers? Reminds me of Strategic Vision.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Dgov on September 27, 2010, 12:13:37 AM
MS-02:

35% Bennie Thompson (D-Inc.)
34% Bill Marcy (R)
31% Undecided

http://www.meridianteaparty.com/bombshell-thompson-marcy-race-a-toss-up/

Ah, so did the polling method here just consist of blatantly making up numbers? Reminds me of Strategic Vision.

It's not entirely unlikely if you just assume all the undecideds break for Thompson.  The district is probably the most raciall polarized in teh country, with the Republican getting more than 80% of the White vote and the Democrat getting more than 90% of the Black vote.  The problem is that the district itself is actually 63.5% Black, which kind of destroys the Republican's chances.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Eraserhead on September 27, 2010, 04:59:58 AM
MS-02:

35% Bennie Thompson (D-Inc.)
34% Bill Marcy (R)
31% Undecided

http://www.meridianteaparty.com/bombshell-thompson-marcy-race-a-toss-up/

Ah, so did the polling method here just consist of blatantly making up numbers? Reminds me of Strategic Vision.

It's not entirely unlikely if you just assume all the undecideds break for Thompson.  The district is probably the most raciall polarized in teh country, with the Republican getting more than 80% of the White vote and the Democrat getting more than 90% of the Black vote.  The problem is that the district itself is actually 63.5% Black, which kind of destroys the Republican's chances.

Every undecided breaking for an incumbent? Yeah, that happens. :P


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Dgov on September 27, 2010, 05:33:36 AM
MS-02:

35% Bennie Thompson (D-Inc.)
34% Bill Marcy (R)
31% Undecided

http://www.meridianteaparty.com/bombshell-thompson-marcy-race-a-toss-up/

Ah, so did the polling method here just consist of blatantly making up numbers? Reminds me of Strategic Vision.

It's not entirely unlikely if you just assume all the undecideds break for Thompson.  The district is probably the most raciall polarized in teh country, with the Republican getting more than 80% of the White vote and the Democrat getting more than 90% of the Black vote.  The problem is that the district itself is actually 63.5% Black, which kind of destroys the Republican's chances.

Every undecided breaking for an incumbent? Yeah, that happens. :P

It's a common strategy for internal polling to try to get your opponent's supporters as "Undecideds".  It helps to completely "Honestly" boos your own relative numbers.  34% sounds about right for a Republican in this district


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 27, 2010, 04:17:15 PM
Internal poll for SHS:

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 51
Kristi Noem (R): 38
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4.9%)

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/herseth-sandlin-leads-noem-in.html


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 27, 2010, 04:47:05 PM
huh, surprisingly large lead, even for an internal.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 27, 2010, 05:26:33 PM
huh, surprisingly large lead, even for an internal.

It's the driving record thing.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 27, 2010, 05:57:24 PM
Suzanne Kosmas/FL-24 (http://www.kosmasforcongress.com/files/Kosmas_Poll_Memo_9-27-10.pdf):

Suzanne Kosmas (D) - 45
Sandy Adams (R) - 43

Yep, she's done.

Steven Palazzo/MS-04 (buried in the article) (http://www.politico.com/morningscore/0910/morningscore177.html):

Gene Taylor (D) - 45
Steven Palazzo (R) - 41

Chris Carney/PA-10 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/38255523/Poll-memo):

Chris Carney (D) - 46
Tom Marino (R) - 38


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 27, 2010, 06:14:57 PM
MS-02:

35% Bennie Thompson (D-Inc.)
34% Bill Marcy (R)
31% Undecided

http://www.meridianteaparty.com/bombshell-thompson-marcy-race-a-toss-up/

Ah, so did the polling method here just consist of blatantly making up numbers? Reminds me of Strategic Vision.


Crappy partisan polling often plays around heavily with that order of questions that prime for certain answers, because people are more likely to give answers that are superficially "consistent" with their previous answer so as not to appear inconsistent, even if they wouldn't make the same choice if the question came on its own. If we assume that the questions were asked in the same wording and order as on the link*, then they first asked whether respondents were pro-life or pro-choice, then asked whether they were satisfied with "their current congressman" without naming him, and then asked about Thompson vs. Marcy without including the words "Democrat" or "Republican". All of these would prime an exaggeratedly Republican response in a district like this.

*Of course, this assumption is just a guess, but not an unreasonable one given the result and source.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 27, 2010, 08:07:02 PM
Suzanne Kosmas/FL-24 (http://www.kosmasforcongress.com/files/Kosmas_Poll_Memo_9-27-10.pdf):

Suzanne Kosmas (D) - 45
Sandy Adams (R) - 43

Yep, she's done.

Steven Palazzo/MS-04 (buried in the article) (http://www.politico.com/morningscore/0910/morningscore177.html):

Gene Taylor (D) - 45
Steven Palazzo (R) - 41

Chris Carney/PA-10 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/38255523/Poll-memo):

Chris Carney (D) - 46
Tom Marino (R) - 38



Good news for Taylor, but I don't think anyone suspected he was endangered this year.  Carney might be able to survive.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 27, 2010, 09:21:39 PM
I don't know about the professional prognosticators, but I've had Taylor on my watch list for a long time. This is the first time in God knows how long that he's had an opponent who has more distinguishing features than just a pulse.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Mr.Phips on September 27, 2010, 09:26:04 PM
I don't know about the professional prognosticators, but I've had Taylor on my watch list for a long time. This is the first time in God knows how long that he's had an opponent who has more distinguishing features than just a pulse.

Taylor actually had a self-funder in 1996 and another state legislator who was Trent Lott's nephew in 2004. 


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Meeker on September 28, 2010, 08:19:12 AM
The numbers for Kosmas are actually any improvement since the last time she released an internal poll fwiw.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Rowan on September 28, 2010, 04:33:31 PM
NRCC internal poll dump:

FL-24

Adams(R): 49%
Kosmas(D): 39%

MD-01

Harris(R): 43%
Kratovil(D): 39%

VA-02

Rigell(R): 45%
Nye(D): 40%

CO-03

Salazar(D): 45%
Tipton(R): 45%

AZ-05

Schweikert(R): 45%
Mitchell(D): 44%

OR-05

Bruun(R): 45%
Schrader(D): 44%

AZ-01

Gosar(R): 45%
Kirkpatrick(D): 42%

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/afternoon-fix/afternoon-fix-republican-polls.html?wprss=thefix

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/nrcc-polling-gives-republicans.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=eye-on-2010


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 28, 2010, 05:12:49 PM
NRCC internal poll dump:

FL-24

Adams(R): 49%
Kosmas(D): 39%

MD-01

Harris(R): 43%
Kratovil(D): 39%

VA-02

Rigell(R): 45%
Nye(D): 40%

CO-03

Salazar(D): 45%
Tipton(R): 45%

AZ-05

Schweikert(R): 45%
Mitchell(D): 44%

OR-05

Bruun(R): 45%
Schrader(D): 44%

AZ-01

Gosar(R): 45%
Kirkpatrick(D): 42%

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/afternoon-fix/afternoon-fix-republican-polls.html?wprss=thefix

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/nrcc-polling-gives-republicans.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=eye-on-2010

So Schrader is in deep trouble, while MD-01, VA-02, CO-03, and AZ-05 are polling as pure tossups?  That's remarkable on all counts (that Schrader is losing and that Kratovil is down only 4 in a GOP internal).


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Brittain33 on September 28, 2010, 05:22:40 PM
Do you mean Kosmas instead of Schrader?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 28, 2010, 05:25:43 PM
Do you mean Kosmas instead of Schrader?

Schrader in OR wasn't thought to be at risk until very recently, right?

Also, I thought for sure that Kratovil in MD-01 would be languishing in Perriello (VA-05) territory by now.  His district is even more GOP friendly than VA-05, and he voted for the stimulus and for cap and trade.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 28, 2010, 05:41:53 PM
Being down by 1 in your opponent's internal isn't that bad.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 28, 2010, 05:53:18 PM
Those internals are less scary than I thought they would be.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 28, 2010, 06:06:42 PM
DCCC/WV-03 (http://dccc.org/newsroom/entry/house_democrats_more_races_district_by_district2/):

Nick Rahall (D) - 55
Spike Maynard (R) - 37

Julie Lassa/WI-07 (http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/121391-race-to-succeed-rep-obey-remains-tight-):

Sean Duffy (R) - 42
Julie Lassa (D) - 41
Gary Kauther (I) - 7


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 28, 2010, 06:33:46 PM
I wonder if the GOP can take the House without taking down at least 3 of Kratovil, Nye, Salazar, and Mitchell?  I'd guess no.  Wouldn't it be ironic if we ended up with a GOP senate and a Dem house?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Rowan on September 29, 2010, 07:17:00 AM
NRCC releases some more internals:

WI-08

Ribble(R): 57%
Kagen(D): 39%

IL-17

Schilling(R): 44%
Hare(D): 43%

WI-07

Duffy(R): 52%
Lassa(D): 38%

MI-01

Benishek(R): 40%
McDowell(D): 24%

IN-08

Buschon(R): 41%
Van Haaften(D): 20%

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/starting_lineup_23.php


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 29, 2010, 07:29:00 AM
SEIU/VoteVets for PA-08 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/38360104/PA-08-Harstad-Research-for-SEIU-Sept-2010):

Patrick Murphy (D) - 49
Michael Fitzpatrick (R) - 46


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on September 29, 2010, 07:32:51 AM
SEIU/VoteVets for PA-08 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/38360104/PA-08-Harstad-Research-for-SEIU-Sept-2010):

Patrick Murphy (D) - 49
Michael Fitzpatrick (R) - 46

D internal, I presume?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Brittain33 on September 29, 2010, 07:33:57 AM
41%-20% in late September? Really?

VoteVets/SEIU are Dem-supporting groups, yes, so this should be equivalent to an internal.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on September 29, 2010, 07:36:06 AM
They probably told people some kind of scare story about Democrats immediately before they asked. And then, this is a fairly rural district that votes mostly on person rather than party.

I'm worried & a little surprised about WI-7. This oughtn't to be leaning R, like, ever. Get close at times, yes. Goes with the generally abysmal D figures in that state right now, I suppose.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on September 29, 2010, 10:18:11 AM
I don't know who ccadvertising is, so I am putting this set (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/248152/gop-sees-three-virginia-challengers-leading-one-trailing-just-bit) of VA polls here.

VA-2 - Scott Rigell (R) 48.6, Nye (D) 34.5, 16.9 undecided.

VA-5 -  Robert Hurt (R) 51.1,  Tom Perriello (D) 34.7, 14.1  undecided.

VA-9 - Rick Boucher (D) 42.6,  Morgan Griffith (R) 39.7, 17.6 undecided.

VA-11 -  Keith Fimian (R) 42.2,  Connolly (D) 36.7, 21.1  undecided.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Hash on September 29, 2010, 10:25:56 AM
Generally, I always think that polls with decimals = bad


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 29, 2010, 10:27:10 AM
What a hilariously Welsh name.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on September 29, 2010, 10:28:14 AM
VA-11 -  Keith Fimian (R) 42.2,  Fimian (D) 36.7, 21.1  undecided.
Connolly (D).

And yeah, the source and headline would indicate you put this in the right place.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 29, 2010, 11:41:00 AM
Public Opinion Strategies for Bill Hudak (R)

MASSACHUSETTS 06
Tierney (D) - 46%
Hudak (R) - 39%

http://www.redmassgroup.com/diary/10080/new-poll-reveals-hudak-within-striking-range-of-teirney


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: tmthforu94 on September 29, 2010, 04:02:51 PM
IN-08

Buschon(R): 41%
Van Haaften(D): 20%

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/starting_lineup_23.php

I have been anxiously waiting for this! :) A ridiculous amount of undecideds, so this could close up. But it's still encouraging to see Bucshon up by 20 points.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 29, 2010, 05:59:16 PM
Sean Duffy/WI-07 (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/lassa-duffy-polls-conflict.html):

Sean Duffy (R) - 47
Julie Lassa (D) - 43

Scott Rigell/VA-02 (http://www.politico.com/static/PPM176_100929_scott_rigell_key_findings.html):

Scott Rigell (R) - 42
Glenn Nye (D) - 35
Kenny Golden (I) - 5

Magellan did a poll of CO-02 for no apparent reason; I'm including it here since it's a Republican pollster. (http://www.magellanstrategies.com/index.php/2010/09/colorado-2nd-congressional-district-survey-92910/)

Jared Polis (D) - 48
Stephen Bailey (R) - 36


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on September 30, 2010, 12:40:33 AM
IN-08

Buschon(R): 41%
Van Haaften(D): 20%

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/starting_lineup_23.php

I have been anxiously waiting for this! :) A ridiculous amount of undecideds, so this could close up. But it's still encouraging to see Bucshon up by 20 points.

     Internals like that are essentially meaningless. They push heavily to get the other side's voters into the undecided camp. The percentage for Buschon probably is not far off, but Van Haaften's share could be just about anything between 35 & 55.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 30, 2010, 07:29:49 AM
Harry Mitchell/AZ-05 (http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/Valdez/100017):

Harry Mitchell (D) - 43
David Schweikert (R) - 40

44-41 with "most likely" voters.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Dan the Roman on September 30, 2010, 08:38:46 AM
Public Opinion Strategies for Bill Hudak (R)

MASSACHUSETTS 06
Tierney (D) - 46%
Hudak (R) - 39%

http://www.redmassgroup.com/diary/10080/new-poll-reveals-hudak-within-striking-range-of-teirney

Who are "high interest likely voters"? We get no top-line for plain likely voters.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 30, 2010, 08:59:48 AM
Who are "high interest likely voters"? We get no top-line for plain likely voters.

lol, no idea.

For those that don't know, Hudak is the one who was abandoned by Baker and the state party after putting up lawn signs comparing Obama to Bin Laden. I'd say Barney Frank would lose before Tierney does (not that I expect either to).


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on September 30, 2010, 11:40:22 AM
I understand that Mass. R's are more motivated than they've been for 15 years, which a) isn't hard b) ought to make a difference to victory margins all over; but I don't see anything implying that any seat beyond the tenth might conceivably be termed genuinely competitive.
So why not give us some decent polls out of the tenth instead of all that trash?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: TheGlobalizer on September 30, 2010, 03:17:51 PM
That's about where I see Kratovil.  He's actually been a pretty good Rep. for his district.  Took a stand against HCR, and environmental issues play fairly well in his district, even among Republicans.  Plus Harris has a bit of a Bush-era vibe about him, and really comes off as a bit of a dick.  This is one of the few races where, if I was in the district, I'd vote for the Democrat.

I don't think he survives, tho.  This is a Republican district, and now that everyone has forgotten about Harris vs. Gilchrest, I think they come home to the GOP.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 30, 2010, 04:47:33 PM
That's about where I see Kratovil.  He's actually been a pretty good Rep. for his district.  Took a stand against HCR, and environmental issues play fairly well in his district, even among Republicans.  Plus Harris has a bit of a Bush-era vibe about him, and really comes off as a bit of a dick.  This is one of the few races where, if I was in the district, I'd vote for the Democrat.

I don't think he survives, tho.  This is a Republican district, and now that everyone has forgotten about Harris vs. Gilchrest, I think they come home to the GOP.

I agree with you: this race is a pure toss up. but my guts say kratovil will finally win.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 30, 2010, 05:51:48 PM
Austin Scott/GA-08 (https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0B_KEK8-LWmzhMjE4ZmNmNjMtMDYxMy00NjZkLWE4YmMtZWU2NTQwOGI4ZmVi&hl=en&authkey=CKnIp6UP&pli=1):

Austin Scott (R) - 46
Jim Marshall (D) - 38


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 30, 2010, 06:28:28 PM
Mike McMahon/NY-13 (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/09/internal-poll-gives-mcmahon-st.html):

Mike McMahon (D) - 51
Mike Grimm (R) - 33

And the NRCC released a counter-poll... showing McMahon up 46-38.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Mr.Phips on September 30, 2010, 07:07:26 PM
Austin Scott/GA-08 (https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0B_KEK8-LWmzhMjE4ZmNmNjMtMDYxMy00NjZkLWE4YmMtZWU2NTQwOGI4ZmVi&hl=en&authkey=CKnIp6UP&pli=1):

Austin Scott (R) - 46
Jim Marshall (D) - 38


Damn, Ill have to change my prediction on this. 


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 30, 2010, 07:21:04 PM
And the NRCC released a counter-poll... showing McMahon up 46-38.
fail


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: DrScholl on September 30, 2010, 08:59:11 PM
AZ-7:

Grijalva 42%
McClung 35%

http://azstarnet.com/news/blogs/pueblo-politics/article_38fd61a4-cc1b-11df-ab09-001cc4c002e0.html


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: ?????????? on September 30, 2010, 10:01:37 PM
Can't find anything about FL-9. :(


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 30, 2010, 10:10:35 PM
AZ-7:

Grijalva 42%
McClung 35%

http://azstarnet.com/news/blogs/pueblo-politics/article_38fd61a4-cc1b-11df-ab09-001cc4c002e0.html
You scared me for a second before I realized that this internal poll was released by McClung. :P


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Dgov on October 01, 2010, 04:55:20 AM
AZ-7:

Grijalva 42%
McClung 35%

http://azstarnet.com/news/blogs/pueblo-politics/article_38fd61a4-cc1b-11df-ab09-001cc4c002e0.html
You scared me for a second before I realized that this internal poll was released by McClung. :P

Doesn't seem too far out from what I would expect actually.  The district is not very Democratic.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Brittain33 on October 01, 2010, 11:00:52 AM

Here, this is a good guess:

Bilirakis: 58%
Some D: 33%
Tea Party: 8%

Released by Some D's campaign.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on October 01, 2010, 11:10:17 AM
AZ-7:

Grijalva 42%
McClung 35%

http://azstarnet.com/news/blogs/pueblo-politics/article_38fd61a4-cc1b-11df-ab09-001cc4c002e0.html
You scared me for a second before I realized that this internal poll was released by McClung. :P

Doesn't seem too far out from what I would expect actually.  The district is not very Democratic.
Not really. The lowest Grijalva has ever gotten is 59% in 2002 when the district was created. Since then he's gotten 62%, 60.6% and 63.3%. While I'm definitely expecting some strong backlash against Democrats in Arizona due to SB1070, Grijalva outperformed Obama by 6 percentage points in 08(effect of McCain being the nominee maybe?), but this is still a very Democratic district. 50.6% of the district is latino and another 5% are native american. So based on demographics, along with Grijalva's popularity in this district and the fact that it voted for Gore, Kerry and Obama I don't think this internal poll is accurate.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 01, 2010, 01:09:30 PM
AZ-7:

Grijalva 42%
McClung 35%

http://azstarnet.com/news/blogs/pueblo-politics/article_38fd61a4-cc1b-11df-ab09-001cc4c002e0.html
You scared me for a second before I realized that this internal poll was released by McClung. :P

Doesn't seem too far out from what I would expect actually.  The district is not very Democratic.
It has the potential to be a Fool's Gold type of district... if Republicans hadn't been too intelligent to target it at all before.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: ?????????? on October 01, 2010, 01:35:52 PM
LOL Brittain, about what I'd expect! :D


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on October 01, 2010, 01:37:14 PM
AZ-7:

Grijalva 42%
McClung 35%

http://azstarnet.com/news/blogs/pueblo-politics/article_38fd61a4-cc1b-11df-ab09-001cc4c002e0.html
You scared me for a second before I realized that this internal poll was released by McClung. :P

Doesn't seem too far out from what I would expect actually.  The district is not very Democratic.
Not really. The lowest Grijalva has ever gotten is 59% in 2002 when the district was created. Since then he's gotten 62%, 60.6% and 63.3%. While I'm definitely expecting some strong backlash against Democrats in Arizona due to SB1070, Grijalva outperformed Obama by 6 percentage points in 08(effect of McCain being the nominee maybe?), but this is still a very Democratic district. 50.6% of the district is latino and another 5% are native american. So based on demographics, along with Grijalva's popularity in this district and the fact that it voted for Gore, Kerry and Obama I don't think this internal poll is accurate.

     Latinos tend to have poor turnout, though. The district is D+6, so it could in theory be competitive, though that would require a much weaker Democrat than Grijalva.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 01, 2010, 01:41:17 PM
You need to add Tucson Liberals.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 02, 2010, 04:10:47 PM
Nick Rahall/WV-03 (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/new-poll-puts-rahall-ahead-by.html):

Nick Rahall (D) - 59
Spike Maynard (R) - 34


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 03, 2010, 12:16:34 PM
Indeterminate Republican poll of DE-AL (https://twitter.com/polltrack/status/26106220869):

John Carney (D) - 45
Glen Urquhart (R) - 42


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: ajc0918 on October 03, 2010, 06:48:46 PM
Indeterminate Republican poll of DE-AL (https://twitter.com/polltrack/status/26106220869):

John Carney (D) - 45
Glen Urquhart (R) - 42


This is surprising if true.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on October 03, 2010, 08:24:53 PM
Indeterminate Republican poll of DE-AL (https://twitter.com/polltrack/status/26106220869):

John Carney (D) - 45
Glen Urquhart (R) - 42


This is surprising if true.

     It's a Republican internal. The true numbers would be something in the area of 48-40, which is pretty close to what previous independent polling has shown.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on October 03, 2010, 09:02:51 PM
Is Urquhart an O'Donnell clone (sans of course that which by definition makes O'Donnell unique, like her unusual interest in masturbation and witchcraft)?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 03, 2010, 09:20:33 PM
Is Urquhart an O'Donnell clone (sans of course that which by definition makes O'Donnell unique, like her unusual interest in masturbation and witchcraft)?

Pretty much.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 03, 2010, 10:17:21 PM
Missed this earlier in the week:

In Chris Shays's old district (CT-04):

Quote
Dan Debicella and Jim Himes both garner 42% in our latest survey, with 14% undecided.  This represents an improvement from our August poll, where Himes led Dan by a 42%-38% score.  Thus, Himes has been stuck at 42% for over a month, despite his barrage of negative attacks against Dan.

·         Dan leads 47%-28% among voters with no party affiliation.

·         Dan leads 44%-42% among voters who are most likely to turn out.

·         Among voters who have heard of both candidates, Dan leads 45%-42%.  Among voters who have an opinion of both candidates, Dan leads 53%-38%.

·         The Republican leads the generic ballot, 43%-41%.

Debicella internal,  of course.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 04, 2010, 05:35:27 PM
Couple DCCC polls (http://dccc.org/blog/entry/house_democrats_more_district_by_district_polls1/):

AL-02

Bobby Bright (D) - 52
Martha Roby (R) - 43

NY-20

Scott Murphy (D) - 51
Chris Gibson (R) - 38


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 04, 2010, 06:12:12 PM
Chip Cravaaaaaaaack/MN-08 (http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/event/article/id/180431/):

Jim Oberstar (D) - 45
Chip Cravaaaaaaaack (R) - 42


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on October 04, 2010, 07:04:42 PM
Chip Cravaaaaaaaack/MN-08 (http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/event/article/id/180431/):

Jim Oberstar (D) - 45
Chip Cravaaaaaaaack (R) - 42


See BRTD, I told you. Jimbo better make sure the folks working the iron range show up to vote, because the tea partiers in the southern part of the CD certainly will be, phalanx after phalanx of them, almost as one body.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on October 04, 2010, 07:05:19 PM
Couple DCCC polls (http://dccc.org/blog/entry/house_democrats_more_district_by_district_polls1/):

AL-02

Bobby Bright (D) - 52
Martha Roby (R) - 43

NY-20

Scott Murphy (D) - 51
Chris Gibson (R) - 38


Scott must be a very talented politician. Is he?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 04, 2010, 08:56:06 PM
Couple DCCC polls (http://dccc.org/blog/entry/house_democrats_more_district_by_district_polls1/):

AL-02

Bobby Bright (D) - 52
Martha Roby (R) - 43

NY-20

Scott Murphy (D) - 51
Chris Gibson (R) - 38


Bad news for Bright?  He was cruising during the summer.  This probably does translate to a slight lead in unbiased polling, but only by 3 or 4 points.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 05, 2010, 09:16:03 PM
Couple DCCC polls (http://dccc.org/blog/entry/house_democrats_more_district_by_district_polls1/):

AL-02

Bobby Bright (D) - 52
Martha Roby (R) - 43

NY-20

Scott Murphy (D) - 51
Chris Gibson (R) - 38


Countering that, the Gibson campaign leaked a POS NY-20 poll (http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/32473/gibson-leaks-poll-showing-him-within-striking-distance/) showing:

Scott Murphy (D) - 42%
Chris Gibson (R) -  38%

Among those most interested in the election, POS claims it's Gibson 41%, Murphy 40%.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Vepres on October 06, 2010, 12:50:03 PM
Couple DCCC polls (http://dccc.org/blog/entry/house_democrats_more_district_by_district_polls1/):

AL-02

Bobby Bright (D) - 52
Martha Roby (R) - 43

NY-20

Scott Murphy (D) - 51
Chris Gibson (R) - 38


Scott must be a very talented politician. Is he?

He's good at building a moderate image, like Altmire.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 06, 2010, 04:57:02 PM
Republican internals via National Review's Campaign Spot (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/248982/more-house-polls-show-good-news-gop-new-york-illinois-and-connecticut):

IL-14
Hultgren (R) - 44%
Foster (D)(i) - 38%

Tarrance; October 3-4; 400 LV; MoE +/-4.9%

NY-01
Altschuler (R) - 40.10%
Bishop (D)(i)  - 40.35%
Undecided     - 19.55%

NY-19
Hayworth (R) - 38.36%
Hall (D)(i)       - 37.77%
Undecided     - 23.86%

NY-24
Hanna (R)      - 38.46%
Arcuri (D)(i)    - 35.61%
Undecided     - 25.93%

All NY polls (http://capitaltonight.com/2010/10/gop-poll-finds-gop-competitive-in-3-house-races/) are from ccAdvertising; composition unknown.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: tpfkaw on October 06, 2010, 08:01:53 PM
Hmm . . . two decimal places.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Dan the Roman on October 07, 2010, 05:04:07 AM
Chris Murphy is out with his internal

Gotham research Group for Chris Murphy
Murphy 50%
Caligiuri 37%

http://dccc.org/newsroom/entry/house_democrats_more_district_by_district_polls/



Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 07, 2010, 05:41:33 AM
Chris Murphy is out with his internal

Gotham research Group t for Chris Murphy no dates
Murphy 50%
Caligiuri 37%

http://dccc.org/newsroom/entry/house_democrats_more_district_by_district_polls/



It has dates: "Conducted September 19-21, the poll surveyed 568 likely registered voters and has a 4.1 percent margin of error."

That's pretty stale.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2010, 01:27:54 PM
Del Bene (D) internal:

Democrat Suzan DelBene trails Rep. Dave Reichert 48 percent to 44 percent, a new internal poll done for the challenger shows.

The sampling by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz and Associates showed 8 percent of respondents undecided. The survey of 400 voters in the 8th Congressional District was taken Oct. 4-5 and had a margin of error of 4.9 percent. The same poll taken in August had Reichert, a Republican seeking his fourth term, up by nine points.

A SurveyUSA/KING5 poll released earlier this month had Reichert at 52 percent and DelBene at 45 percent. That showing was an improvement for the Democrat.

The Democratic and Republican national political committees will be closely watching all polling in the coming days as they make their final decisions where to allocate resources in the run up to next month's election.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/223891.asp


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Meeker on October 07, 2010, 01:40:00 PM
Looks like there might be two House races in Washington we could've won any other year. Sigh...


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 07, 2010, 01:43:05 PM
Buried in this article about Bright saying he won't back Pelosi is a Roby poll for AL-02 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/07/first-dem-candidate-says-_n_754351.html):

Martha Roby (R) - 45
Bobby Bright (D) - 43

Edit: whoops, numbers backwards.

Matt Doheny/NY-23 (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/ny-gop-poll-shows-doheny-with.html):

Matt Doheny (R) - 51
Bill Owens (D) - 37


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 07, 2010, 02:47:08 PM
Bobby Schilling/IL-17 (https://twitter.com/polltrack/status/26578213604):

Phil Hare (D) - 38
Bobby Schilling (R) - 37


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Brittain33 on October 07, 2010, 03:08:22 PM
Bobby Schilling/IL-17 (https://twitter.com/polltrack/status/26578213604):

Phil Hare (D) - 38
Bobby Schilling (R) - 37


Well, that's reassuring. I think some people had written off this district for the R a while ago.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 07, 2010, 03:14:43 PM
Looks like there might be two House races in Washington we could've won any other year. Sigh...

Well, 2012 should be a pretty good chance. 


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Dgov on October 08, 2010, 07:32:48 AM
I don't know if this is technically an internal, but if sure feels like one:

http://www.freep.com/article/20101008/NEWS15/10080315/1318/Poll-In-House-race-Rob-Steele-leads-John-Dingell-by-4-points#ixzz11lRK7KCa

Steele is up on Dingell 44-40

MOE: 5.6%


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 08, 2010, 10:18:02 AM
I don't know if this is technically an internal, but if sure feels like one:

http://www.freep.com/article/20101008/NEWS15/10080315/1318/Poll-In-House-race-Rob-Steele-leads-John-Dingell-by-4-points#ixzz11lRK7KCa

Steele is up on Dingell 44-40

MOE: 5.6%
'parently not. Joke pollster though.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 08, 2010, 12:53:34 PM
The latest polling data from The Tarrance Group shows that Alan Nunnelee has opened up a 51-40 lead over Travis Childers. This is the first time any candidate has been at or over the 50 percent mark in the race. The previous poll put Nunnelee up 48-41.

Other data:

- Nunnelee holds a 15 point lead among “extremely likely” voters (54-39)

- Nunnelee leads 56-38 among voters who have impressions of both he and Childers

- Of the 75 percent of voters who have seen, read or heard something about the Childers campaign, 43 percent are less likely to vote him based on that information

- 32 percent say Childers deserves re-election

- Republicans maintain a 53-39 edge on the generic Congressional ballot

The poll of 300 likely voters was done October 4-5 and has a 5.8 percent margin of error.

http://majorityinms.com/2010/10/07/nunnelee-expands-lead-in-latest-poll/


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 08, 2010, 06:58:54 PM
Beth Anne Rankin/AR-04 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/38929173/AR-04-Rankin-Diamond-State-Poll):

Mike Ross (D) - 44
Beth Anne Rankin (R) - 41
Joshua Drake (G) - 5

Ben Chandler/KY-06 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/38928174/KY-06-Mellman-Group-for-Ben-Chandler-Sep-2010):

Ben Chandler (D) - 52
Andy Barr (R) - 40

Andy Barr/KY-06 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/38925880/KY-06-Tarrance-Group-for-Andy-Barr-Oct-2010):

Andy Barr (R) - 48
Ben Chandler (D) - 47

Chet Edwards/TX-17 (http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/10/in-a-break-from-the-past-edwar.html):

Bill Flores (R) - 46
Chet Edwards (D) - 42


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 08, 2010, 07:19:33 PM
Patrick Murray/VA-08 (http://www.arlnow.com/2010/10/08/moran-leads-poll-despite-low-favorable-rating/):

Jim Moran (D) - 45
Patrick Murray (R) - 32


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 08, 2010, 10:37:12 PM
McLaughlin & Associates/NY-4 (for Becker (R)) (http://www.scribd.com/doc/38978855/NY-4-Poll-Memo):

McCarthy (D)(i) - 46%
Becker (R)         - 45%
Undecided         - 9%

October 6; 300 LV; MOE +/- 5.6%
------

This race has been on nobody's radar - though I said a month or so ago that people should watch it - and was ridiculed for it.  I still say this is a race to watch.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Sbane on October 09, 2010, 11:37:55 AM
McLaughlin & Associates/NY-4 (for Becker (R)) (http://www.scribd.com/doc/38978855/NY-4-Poll-Memo):

McCarthy (D)(i) - 46%
Becker (R)         - 45%
Undecided         - 9%

October 6; 300 LV; MOE +/- 5.6%
------

This race has been on nobody's radar - though I said a month or so ago that people should watch it - and was ridiculed for it.  I still say this is a race to watch.

Usually when someone releases an internal showing they are behind, it's not a good sign. But even if this is a win for the Democrats, it does show that it's a decently close race which makes me wonder what's going on in more Republican districts like the 1st or the 19th.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: xavier110 on October 09, 2010, 11:49:32 AM
McCarthy is not going to cruise to re-election, and I think it could be a single-digit race. Nassau seems to have swung more against the Democrats than Suffolk has.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 09, 2010, 12:17:01 PM
McLaughlin & Associates/NY-4 (for Becker (R)) (http://www.scribd.com/doc/38978855/NY-4-Poll-Memo):

McCarthy (D)(i) - 46%
Becker (R)         - 45%
Undecided         - 9%

October 6; 300 LV; MOE +/- 5.6%
------

This race has been on nobody's radar - though I said a month or so ago that people should watch it - and was ridiculed for it.  I still say this is a race to watch.

Usually when someone releases an internal showing they are behind, it's not a good sign. But even if this is a win for the Democrats, it does show that it's a decently close race which makes me wonder what's going on in more Republican districts like the 1st or the 19th.
Hall's very much the underdog in the nineteenth, though he probably won't lose badly. There was talk of a serious R challenge in the 1st earlier in the cycle but it seems to have died away.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 09, 2010, 02:20:29 PM
Hall's very much the underdog in the nineteenth, though he probably won't lose badly. There was talk of a serious R challenge in the 1st earlier in the cycle but it seems to have died away.

There is a serious R challenge in NY-01 - though the Republicans decided to shoot themselves n the foot by running a crowded, contested primary instead of getting behind a candidate.  The most recent Republican internal polling showed the race a dead heat, with about 20% undecided.

FWIW, Maurice Hinchey's (D) opponent in NY-22, which stretches from Poughkeepsie to Binghamton, is still touting an August internal by Magellan Strategies (http://www.wicz.com/news2005/viewarticle.asp?a=15988), showing:

Hinchey (D)(i) - 44%
Philips (R)       - 37%
Undecided      - 19%

There was an op-ed piece about the race in today's New York Post (http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/portrait_of_endangered_ny_democrat_fB0lyIunXeRz19EaMSIaUJ).  NY-22 is a D+6 district.

I'd file that one in the way too good to be true column for now, especially since it's a very stale internal.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 09, 2010, 07:14:54 PM
NY-1 is the sort of place that might get swept away in a big wave regardless. Stress on 'might'.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: ajc0918 on October 09, 2010, 08:22:44 PM
Beth Anne Rankin/AR-04 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/38929173/AR-04-Rankin-Diamond-State-Poll):

Mike Ross (D) - 44
Beth Anne Rankin (R) - 41
Joshua Drake (G) - 5



Isn't this somewhat surprising? I thought Ross was safe, but maybe not, idk.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 09, 2010, 08:25:38 PM
Beth Anne Rankin/AR-04 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/38929173/AR-04-Rankin-Diamond-State-Poll):

Mike Ross (D) - 44
Beth Anne Rankin (R) - 41
Joshua Drake (G) - 5



Isn't this somewhat surprising? I thought Ross was safe, but maybe not, idk.

An internal from his opponent showing him ahead.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 10, 2010, 01:26:58 AM
MS-04 (http://picayuneitem.com/local/x996060904/Taylor-polls-show-8-point-lead-Palazzo-claims-race-is-in-a-dead-heat)

Democratic internal:
Taylor +8

Unspecified percentages, pollster, dates, MOE

Republican internal:
Taylor (D)(i) - 45%
Palazzo (R)  - 41%

Tarrance Group; September 21-22; MOE +/- 5.8%



Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Beet on October 10, 2010, 01:42:45 AM
NY-1 is the sort of place that might get swept away in a big wave regardless. Stress on 'might'.

What are the characteristics you look for the 'sort of place' that might get swept away in a big wave?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 10, 2010, 01:47:20 AM
Chip Cravaaaaaaaack/MN-08 (http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/event/article/id/180431/):

Jim Oberstar (D) - 45
Chip Cravaaaaaaaack (R) - 42


See BRTD, I told you. Jimbo better make sure the folks working the iron range show up to vote, because the tea partiers in the southern part of the CD certainly will be, phalanx after phalanx of them, almost as one body.

Trailing in your own internal is not something common among anyone likely to be much of a threat.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 10, 2010, 07:16:14 AM
Raul Labrador/ID-01 (http://www.spokesman.com/blogs/hbo/2010/oct/07/poll-minnick-leads-labrador-37-31/):

Walt Minnick (D) - 37
Raul Labrador (R) - 31

Scott DesJarlais/TN-04 (http://politics.nashvillepost.com/2010/10/07/dead-heat/):

Lincoln Davis (D) - 42
Scott DesJarlais (R) - 42


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 10, 2010, 09:51:03 AM
Raul Labrador/ID-01 (http://www.spokesman.com/blogs/hbo/2010/oct/07/poll-minnick-leads-labrador-37-31/):

Walt Minnick (D) - 37
Raul Labrador (R) - 31


LOL. I know Minnick may as well be a Republican, but still, it's hilarious that they can't pick up an R+18.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on October 10, 2010, 10:04:48 AM
Chip Cravaaaaaaaack/MN-08 (http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/event/article/id/180431/):

Jim Oberstar (D) - 45
Chip Cravaaaaaaaack (R) - 42


See BRTD, I told you. Jimbo better make sure the folks working the iron range show up to vote, because the tea partiers in the southern part of the CD certainly will be, phalanx after phalanx of them, almost as one body.

Trailing in your own internal is not something common among anyone likely to be much of a threat.

Yes, of course, but ...let's see if any money moves up that way.  The GOP candidate presents a quite presentatable image.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Dgov on October 10, 2010, 11:34:47 AM
MS-04 (http://picayuneitem.com/local/x996060904/Taylor-polls-show-8-point-lead-Palazzo-claims-race-is-in-a-dead-heat)

Democratic internal:
Taylor +8

Unspecified percentages, pollster, dates, MOE

Republican internal:
Taylor (D)(i) - 45%
Palazzo (R)  - 41%

Tarrance Group; September 21-22; MOE +/- 5.8%



Wow, i didn't expect to see this one so close.  Talyor is probably the most Conservative Democrat in congress right now, and his seat would be an easy GOP hold should they pick it up.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 10, 2010, 12:27:54 PM
MS-04 (http://picayuneitem.com/local/x996060904/Taylor-polls-show-8-point-lead-Palazzo-claims-race-is-in-a-dead-heat)

Democratic internal:
Taylor +8

Unspecified percentages, pollster, dates, MOE

Republican internal:
Taylor (D)(i) - 45%
Palazzo (R)  - 41%

Tarrance Group; September 21-22; MOE +/- 5.8%



Wow, i didn't expect to see this one so close.  Talyor is probably the most Conservative Democrat in congress right now, and his seat would be an easy GOP hold should they pick it up.

Dems would probably be better off without Taylor, unless he is #218.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: tpfkaw on October 10, 2010, 12:40:24 PM
I just heard from someone who says they heard from a person inside the DNC that their internal polling now shows Barney Frank up only 3 points in MA-04, and they're about to start throwing big money into the race.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 10, 2010, 01:26:55 PM
I just heard from someone who says they heard from a person inside the DNC that their internal polling now shows Barney Frank up only 3 points in MA-04, and they're about to start throwing big money into the race.

That certainly sounds reliable.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Vepres on October 10, 2010, 02:54:23 PM
I just heard from someone who says they heard from a person inside the DNC that their internal polling now shows Barney Frank up only 3 points in MA-04, and they're about to start throwing big money into the race.

That certainly sounds reliable.

There's been mutterings about that race here and there.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Dan the Roman on October 10, 2010, 06:15:48 PM
I just heard from someone who says they heard from a person inside the DNC that their internal polling now shows Barney Frank up only 3 points in MA-04, and they're about to start throwing big money into the race.

That certainly sounds reliable.

MA-06 would be more believable at this point. With Tierney having his wife plead guilty, and revelations of illegal donations.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Dgov on October 11, 2010, 12:27:19 PM
Again, I don't know if it's an Internal, but:

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM136_101010_grijalva_poll.html

Grijalva 40, McClung 38


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 11, 2010, 01:07:47 PM
Magellan is a Republican firm, and they ask a lot of leading questions before they get to the head-to-head matchup.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 11, 2010, 01:15:35 PM
Again, I don't know if it's an Internal, but:

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM136_101010_grijalva_poll.html

Grijalva 40, McClung 38

If Grijalva were ever going to lose, it would be this year.  He has been openly encouragin businesses to boycott his own state since the spring.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 11, 2010, 01:39:27 PM
DCCC drops another batch of polls. (http://dccc.org/blog/entry/more_district_by_district_polls_show_democrats_well-positioned_for_november/)

AZ-05

Harry Mitchell (D) - 46
David Schweikert (R) - 39

HI-01

Colleen Hanabusa (D) - 48
Charles Djou (R) - 44

IL-14

Bill Foster (D) - 48
Randy Hultgren (R) - 38

IA-03

Leonard Boswell (D) - 49
Brad Zaun (R) - 41

NC-07

Mike McIntyre (D) - 52
Ilario Pantano (R) - 41

NC-11

Heath Shuler (D) - 54
Jeff Miller (R) - 41

PA-15

Charlie Dent (R) - 45
John Callahan (D) - 43



Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 11, 2010, 01:44:10 PM
Some of those look quite believable... and others don't.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 11, 2010, 03:47:15 PM
Quote
HI-01

Colleen Hanabusa (D) - 48
Charles Djou (R) - 44

Hm... this race is starting to worry me. Obama needs to cut Hanabusa a TV ad, if he hasn't yet.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 11, 2010, 05:04:04 PM
Dent's district is probanbly a sleeper race. callahan is a formidable challenger. but 2010 is 2010...


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 11, 2010, 09:31:36 PM
Blake Farenthold/TX-27 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/39138656/Memo-to-Farenthold-Campaign-Leadership-10-11-10-Final):

Blake Farenthold (R) - 44
Solomon Ortiz (D) - 36
Ed Mishou (L) - 2

Farenthold somehow managed to have negative $5,000 in the bank as of the second quarter. I don't know where he came up with the money for a poll.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 11, 2010, 11:52:27 PM
I just heard from someone who says they heard from a person inside the DNC that their internal polling now shows Barney Frank up only 3 points in MA-04, and they're about to start throwing big money into the race.

That certainly sounds reliable.

The race in MA-04 may indeed be close. Barney Frank is starting to push Chris Dodd-level unfavorables, and is an easy target for having his fingerprints all over the housing bust. He's favored to win, of course, but this will be his most difficult race ever.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 12, 2010, 01:28:04 AM
Schwartz wants us to believe she's on track to do as well as she did in 2004 and 2008 - http://grassrootspa.com/pdf/Schwartz_October_poll_memo1.pdf (http://grassrootspa.com/pdf/Schwartz_October_poll_memo1.pdf)

Schwartz (D) - 57%
Adcock (R) - 32%
Undecided - 11%

My favorite bit: 67% believe "I may not always agree with Allyson Schwartz but she has been an effective advocate for this area in Congress."


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 12, 2010, 06:28:35 AM
Sounds like a 25-point informed ballot poll lead to me.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 12, 2010, 07:25:18 AM
After reading JLT's prediction thread, I realize that we missed this one. No need to guess that this is an (R) internal:

NY-25, picked up by Maffei in 2008
Dan Maffei (D-inc.) 39% (–7)
Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 40% (+3)

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM152_101007_ny_exec_summary.html


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Sam Spade on October 12, 2010, 07:41:56 AM
After reading JLT's prediction thread, I realize that we missed this one. No need to guess that this is an (R) internal:

NY-25, picked up by Maffei in 2008
Dan Maffei (D-inc.) 39% (–7)
Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 40% (+3)

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM152_101007_ny_exec_summary.html

You must not read my thread at all.  Somehow I feel a little saddened...


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 12, 2010, 08:48:10 AM
After reading JLT's prediction thread, I realize that we missed this one. No need to guess that this is an (R) internal:

NY-25, picked up by Maffei in 2008
Dan Maffei (D-inc.) 39% (–7)
Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 40% (+3)

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM152_101007_ny_exec_summary.html

You must not read my thread at all.  Somehow I feel a little saddened...

When I said "missed this one," I meant "missed this poll," which has been floating out there for about a week now.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Dan the Roman on October 12, 2010, 09:15:05 AM
Not sure if its appropriate, but expect an MA-06 NRCC poll release later this week once the MA GOP figures out what they want to do with Hudak.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 12, 2010, 11:26:34 AM
Republicans are pushing back on recent Democratic polling that shows Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) leading Republican challenger Dave Schweikert in Arizona's 5th District.

An internal Schweikert campaign poll leaked to Hotline On Call shows Schweikert leading Mitchell by a 45% to 43% margin. The poll was conducted by National Research Inc. on Oct. 5 and 6 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

Those numbers contrast recent Democratic numbers we've seen. The DCCC released an internal poll on Monday that showed Mitchell leading 46% to 39%. That poll was conducted during the same time frame and had the same margin of error. Other recent Democratic polling has also showed the race to be either tied, or with Mitchell holding a slight lead.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/gop_poll_schwei.php


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 12, 2010, 07:11:26 PM
Debbie Halvorson/IL-11 (http://thecapitolfaxblog.com/HalvorsonPollingMemoOct2010.pdf):

Adam Kinzinger (R) - 45
Debbie Halvorson (D) - 41


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Meeker on October 12, 2010, 07:25:40 PM
I'd be more upset if Adam Kinzinger wasn't so dashingly good-looking.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 12, 2010, 07:32:15 PM
I know, Aaron Schock is so last year's model.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 13, 2010, 01:57:10 AM
NY-24 McLaughlin for Hanna (R) (http://www.politico.com/blogs/maggiehaberman/1010/Internal_survey_shows_Hanna_with_tight_lead_in_NY24_.html)

Hanna (R)   - 46%
Arcuri (D)(i) - 43%
Undecided  - 11%

October 6-7; 300 LV(assumed); MoE +/- 5.6%
-----------------------

One interesting thing I learned recently by accident when looking at the NYS Board of Elections website for something else is that New York law actually REQUIRES (http://www.elections.state.ny.us/RunningOffice.html) candidates to release a lot of information within 48 hours of teasing internal poll results, including the "exact wording of the questions asked in the poll and the sequence of such questions."   Perhaps the full poll is floating around somewhere, though I haven't found it yet.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 13, 2010, 12:04:38 PM
Jesse Jackson internal:

According to the poll, conducted by Lake Research Partners, and paid for by Jackson’s reelection campaign, 58 percent of voters support Jackson, compared to 11 percent supporting Republican Isaac Hayes and 6 percent supporting Green Party candidate Anthony Williams. Twenty-five percent of the voters were undecided a month before the election.

According to the poll, 67 percent of the voters believe Jackson cares about people like them; 63 percent say he gets things done; 58 percent say he has worked hard to make the economy stronger in the district and 54 percent say he shares their values.

The poll was conducted by phone Sept. 29 through October 3, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.chicagodefender.com/article-9092-jacksonrss-poll-put-him-47-points-ahead.html


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 13, 2010, 12:07:02 PM
()


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 13, 2010, 12:07:31 PM
Mike Pompeo’s (R) campaign released a new internal poll Wednesday showing a 17% lead for Pompeo in his campaign for Congress in the Fourth District.

Pompeo’s poll, conducted by Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates on October 10 and 11, gives Pompeo support from 48% of the 300 survey respondents, Raj Goyle (D) 31%, Shawn Smith (L) 3%, Susan Ducey (RP) 3% and shows 16% undecided. The survey’s margin of error is 5.6%.

Josh Wells, Pompeo for Congress Communications Director said, “The results of this poll show that Mike Pompeo’s message of smaller government, less spending and lower taxes is resonating among voters of all backgrounds across the 4th District.”

http://stateofthestateks.com/2010/10/13/mike-pompeos-campaign-releases-internal-poll-giving-pompeo-17-point-lead-over-raj-goyle/


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 13, 2010, 12:46:54 PM
I know, Aaron Schock is so last year's model.

As if. Aaron Schock now, Aaron Schock forever.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 13, 2010, 03:24:36 PM
VA-08 (Republican Internal) (http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1013_1643.aspx)
Moran (D)(i) - 45%
Murray (R)    - 32%

Unknown dates and sample size.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 13, 2010, 06:08:23 PM
Mike Keown/GA-02 (http://www.rollcall.com/news/50684-1.html):

Sanford Bishop (D) - 47
Mike Keown (R) - 46

Amusing Dem poll of OH-08 (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/politics/2010/10/13/poll-few-have-heard-of-boehners-opponent/):

John Boehner (R) - 30.4
Justin Coussoule (D) - 19.6


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 13, 2010, 06:14:41 PM
John Boehner (R) - 30.4
Justin Coussoule (D) - 19.6

INCUMBENT UNDER 50
BAD NEWS FOR BONER


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 13, 2010, 09:00:30 PM
McNerney releases a poll to push back on the SUSA one: (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/california-poll-shows-mcnerney.html)

Jerry McNerney (D) - 45
David Harmer (R) - 35
David Christensen (AIP) - 5


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Sam Spade on October 13, 2010, 09:06:57 PM
McNerney releases a poll to push back on the SUSA one: (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/california-poll-shows-mcnerney.html)

Jerry McNerney (D) - 45
David Harmer (R) - 35
David Christensen (AIP) - 5


That's not a very strong response imo.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 13, 2010, 09:35:45 PM
McNerney releases a poll to push back on the SUSA one: (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/california-poll-shows-mcnerney.html)

Jerry McNerney (D) - 45
David Harmer (R) - 35
David Christensen (AIP) - 5


That's not a very strong response imo.

At least it's only 2 weeks old, not 2 months old, as some of the other hastily leaked damage control internals were.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: TeePee4Prez on October 14, 2010, 02:02:06 AM
Schwartz wants us to believe she's on track to do as well as she did in 2004 and 2008 - http://grassrootspa.com/pdf/Schwartz_October_poll_memo1.pdf (http://grassrootspa.com/pdf/Schwartz_October_poll_memo1.pdf)

Schwartz (D) - 57%
Adcock (R) - 32%
Undecided - 11%

My favorite bit: 67% believe "I may not always agree with Allyson Schwartz but she has been an effective advocate for this area in Congress."


No, BUT...  Schwartz will get about that percent with Adcock getting about the 32+11.  I don't agree with Allyson Schwartz on everything either.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: TeePee4Prez on October 14, 2010, 02:04:29 AM
And Grassrootspa.com is a conservative website to boot.  So Phil and others dreading this day....The PA-13 THREAD WILL BEGIN!!!!!!!


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 14, 2010, 06:04:18 PM
Leonard Boswell (D) in IA-03 has him up 47-38. (http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2010/10/13/democratic-poll-boswell-leads-zaun-by-9-points/)

Republican poll of OR-04 has Pete DeFazio (D) up 48-42 over Art Robinson (R). (http://www.scribd.com/doc/39344586/Or-04-Wilson-Research-for-Concerned-Taxpayers-Oct-2010) Amusingly, they claim this is terrible, because it's a huge drop from his 2008 margin... when he didn't have a Republican opponent. They must have Carl working for them.

Stephen Fincher (R) in TN-08 has him up 47-36. (http://us1.campaign-archive.com/?u=9cb6c6be2012298f42395c825&id=e7a20e9ddb&e=316b360d6c)

Sanford Bishop (D) in GA-02 has him up 50-40. (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/georgia-bishop-poll-shows-comf.html)

NRCC poll of NY-24 has Richard Hanna (R) up 46-43 over Arcuri (D). (http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/documents/2010/10/new-york-24th-congressional-district-survey-results.php?page=1)

Chris Carney (D) in PA-10 has him up 48-41. (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/carney-internal-poll-shows-str.html)

Bill Hedrick (D) in CA-44 has Ken Calvert (R) beating him 48-43. (http://www.hedrickforcongress.com/media/uploads/polling_memo_101210.pdf)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Sam Spade on October 14, 2010, 06:14:55 PM
Everything looks about as I expect.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 15, 2010, 01:00:29 AM
MN-07 for Peterson (D): (http://www.wctrib.com/event/article/id/73376/)

Peterson (D)(i)                 - 54%
Byberg (R)                        - 20%
Unnamed Independent 1  -  5%
Unnamed Independent 2  -  5%
Undecided                        - 25%

September 28; Unknown Pollster; LV or RV; Sample Size; MoE.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2010, 01:20:28 AM
WV-03:

A poll released Wednesday by the West Virginia Democratic Party puts Rep. Nick Rahall, D-W.Va., ahead of Republican Elliott "Spike" Maynard by 56 to 37 percent.

The poll by Anzalone Liszt Research shows 7 percent of possible voters remain undecided. The poll was conducted on Oct. 10-12 with 400 likely voters. It has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

http://www.herald-dispatch.com/news/x983707059/Rahall-leads-Maynard-in-poll


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 15, 2010, 10:37:19 AM
John Boehner (R) - 30.4
Justin Coussoule (D) - 19.6
Lol, is that of all persons polled or what?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on October 15, 2010, 01:03:53 PM
John Boehner (R) - 30.4
Justin Coussoule (D) - 19.6
Lol, is that of all persons polled or what?

Yep, the decimals were caused by some siamese twins.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 15, 2010, 03:49:40 PM
TN-04 for DesJarlais (R) (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/249916/two-shocker-polls-and-now-both-revealed):

DesJarlais (R) - 45%
Davis (D)(i)     - 40%

Unknown dates, etc.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 16, 2010, 10:28:03 AM
Rob Miller (D) in SC-02 has Joe Wilson (R) beating him 46-39. (http://www.thestate.com/2010/10/16/1515293/wilson-leads-miller-by-7-pts.html#ixzz12X97wGtt)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 16, 2010, 05:57:32 PM
Couple entertaining polls from hopeless candidates...

Joel Pollak (R) in IL-09 shows Jan Schakowsky beating him 48-30. (http://www.pollakforcongress.com/2010/10/14/new-poll-shows-schakowsky-below-50/)

Jacob Turk in MO-05 shows Emanuel Cleaver (D) beating him 52-43. (http://www.turkforcongress.com/blog/?p=302)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: redcommander on October 17, 2010, 01:16:37 PM
I'd be more upset if Adam Kinzinger wasn't so dashingly good-looking.

I know seriously what is it with Illinois finding hotties to run for political office; Schock, Kinzinger, Giannoulias, etc..


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on October 17, 2010, 06:50:11 PM
I know, Aaron Schock is so last year's model.

As if. Aaron Schock now, Aaron Schock forever.

Yes, Aaron is the man. :)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 18, 2010, 02:58:25 PM
I'm assuming this is an internal:
Dennis Menaced? Is Kucinich in trouble? (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/dennis-menaced_508901.html)

Kucinich is only up by 4 in a poll with an MoE of +/-5.6.  Actual percentages weren't mentioned. (OH-10)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 18, 2010, 03:03:01 PM
I'm assuming this is an internal:
Dennis Menaced? Is Kucinich in trouble? (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/dennis-menaced_508901.html)

Kucinich is only up by 4 in a poll with an MoE of +/-5.6.  Actual percentages weren't mentioned. (OH-10)
Have you read the article? It's actually a phoned-in scare ad.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 18, 2010, 03:08:47 PM
I'm assuming this is an internal:
Dennis Menaced? Is Kucinich in trouble? (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/dennis-menaced_508901.html)

Kucinich is only up by 4 in a poll with an MoE of +/-5.6.  Actual percentages weren't mentioned. (OH-10)
Have you read the article? It's actually a phoned-in scare ad.

Of course I read the article. 

It's not a phoned-in scare ad (or push poll).  The sample size was far to small for that to be even close to effective.  It's a messaging poll - the type campaigns run to try to figure out the message that polls best to decide which to go with.   Usually, they ask the topline question first and see if any potential messages change the numbers, particularly among leaners.  At times, they will ask bad things about their own candidate, too, to see which they will likely need to defend most virulently against. 

Kookcinich going down would make an excellent night, but I doubt it will happen.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 18, 2010, 03:12:35 PM
Okay, so it's a kooky extremist messaging poll.

I was really just reacting to the hedging "I'm assuming..." thing. But maybe that was ironic. Hard to tell sometimes. :)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 18, 2010, 03:28:59 PM
Okay, so it's a kooky extremist messaging poll.

I was really just reacting to the hedging "I'm assuming..." thing. But maybe that was ironic. Hard to tell sometimes. :)

The "I'm assuming" part was because it could have been done for an outside group instead of the candidate himself, and thus, not be a traditional internal for the candidate.

I suspect the PPP polls that will be released this afternoon will be similar messaging polls, though from the left.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Rowan on October 18, 2010, 06:39:26 PM
NJ-06

Pallone: 44%
Little: 43%

http://www.politickernj.com/back_room/national-research-poll-shows-pallone-barely-ahead-little-44-43


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: redcommander on October 18, 2010, 06:42:43 PM
NJ-06

Pallone: 44%
Little: 43%

http://www.politickernj.com/back_room/national-research-poll-shows-pallone-barely-ahead-little-44-43

I wasn't expecting this. Maybe with Gooch, but perhaps Little's grassroots campaigning is paying off.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 18, 2010, 07:07:12 PM
CA-47: Van Tran (R) says he's tied with Loretta Sanchez (D), 39% each (with 5% for Independent Ceci Iglesias). (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/california-tran-poll-finds-vot.html)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 18, 2010, 07:16:48 PM
NJ-06

Pallone: 44%
Little: 43%

http://www.politickernj.com/back_room/national-research-poll-shows-pallone-barely-ahead-little-44-43

lol, uh, no


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 18, 2010, 07:28:37 PM
Wasnt National Research the pollster that kept showing McCain in the lead in Michigan in 2008?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: tpfkaw on October 18, 2010, 09:28:22 PM
CA-47: Van Tran (R) says he's tied with Loretta Sanchez (D), 39% each (with 5% for Independent Ceci Iglesias). (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/california-tran-poll-finds-vot.html)

Huh.  I thought Sanchez was actually in trouble - I guess not.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 19, 2010, 07:26:28 AM
AL-02: DCCC says Bright (D) up 51-39 (http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/dem_poll_bright.php).

AR-01: DCCC says Causey (D) up 44-42. (http://dccc.org/blog/entry/more_district_by_district_polls_show_democrats_well-positioned_for_nov/)

OR-04 (same link as above): DCCC says DeFazio (D) up 53-39.

OR-05: Scott Bruun (R) says he's up 44-40 over Kurt Schrader. (http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/gop_polls_schra.php)



Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on October 19, 2010, 11:20:04 AM
Another GOP poll dump  is here (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250263/daniel-webster-46-devil-30-and-other-interesting-house-polls). If these polls are real, the Dems must be close to being in stark terror at the moment.

 Summarizing the big poll dump the NRCC just provided the Washington Post:

    * FL-8: Daniel Webster (R) 46, Alan Grayson* (D) 30
    * PA 3: Mike Kelly (R) 56, Kathy Dahlkemper* (D) 39
    * OH-15: Steve Stivers (R) 51, Mary Jo Kilroy* (D) 39
    * WA-3: Jaime Herrera (R) 51, Denny Heck (D) 38
    * NY-20: Chris Gibson (R) 48, Scott Murphy* (D) 45
    * MA-10: Jeff Perry (R) 44, Bill Keating (D) 42
    * IL-17: Bobby Schilling (R) 44, Phil Hare* (D) 41
    * PA-10: Tom Marino (R) 44, Chris Carney* (D) 37
    * VA-9: Morgan Griffith (R) 44, Rick Boucher* (D) 44
    * OR-5: Scott Bruun (R) 44, Kurt Schrader (D) 42
    * OH-6: Bill Johnson (R) 40, Charlie Wilson* (D) 40
      (* = denotes incumbent)




Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Sam Spade on October 19, 2010, 11:22:30 AM
Another GOP poll dump  is here (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250263/daniel-webster-46-devil-30-and-other-interesting-house-polls). If these polls are real, the Dems must be close to being in stark terror at the moment.



If you take a standard/about 5% bias look that most of this forum takes with regards to internal polls, the results sound about right as to where I see the races.  Doesn't mean that they're not completely ridiculous, of course.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Meeker on October 19, 2010, 11:27:56 AM
Those polls are laughably ridiculous.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Brittain33 on October 19, 2010, 11:42:48 AM
The only poll there which represents something new, assuming internal consistency, is PA-10.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 19, 2010, 12:18:13 PM
Another GOP poll dump  is here (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250263/daniel-webster-46-devil-30-and-other-interesting-house-polls). If these polls are real, the Dems must be close to being in stark terror at the moment.

 Summarizing the big poll dump the NRCC just provided the Washington Post:

    * FL-8: Daniel Webster (R) 46, Alan Grayson* (D) 30
    * PA 3: Mike Kelly (R) 56, Kathy Dahlkemper* (D) 39
    * OH-15: Steve Stivers (R) 51, Mary Jo Kilroy* (D) 39
    * WA-3: Jaime Herrera (R) 51, Denny Heck (D) 38
    * NY-20: Chris Gibson (R) 48, Scott Murphy* (D) 45
    * MA-10: Jeff Perry (R) 44, Bill Keating (D) 42
    * IL-17: Bobby Schilling (R) 44, Phil Hare* (D) 41
    * PA-10: Tom Marino (R) 44, Chris Carney* (D) 37
    * VA-9: Morgan Griffith (R) 44, Rick Boucher* (D) 44
    * OR-5: Scott Bruun (R) 44, Kurt Schrader (D) 42
    * OH-6: Bill Johnson (R) 40, Charlie Wilson* (D) 40
      (* = denotes incumbent)




I swear to god if Murphy loses(my Congressman) and I am stuck with Gibson, I am going to want Obama's head on a stick. 


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on October 19, 2010, 06:49:11 PM
Another GOP poll dump  is here (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250263/daniel-webster-46-devil-30-and-other-interesting-house-polls). If these polls are real, the Dems must be close to being in stark terror at the moment.

 Summarizing the big poll dump the NRCC just provided the Washington Post:

    * FL-8: Daniel Webster (R) 46, Alan Grayson* (D) 30
    * PA 3: Mike Kelly (R) 56, Kathy Dahlkemper* (D) 39
    * OH-15: Steve Stivers (R) 51, Mary Jo Kilroy* (D) 39
    * WA-3: Jaime Herrera (R) 51, Denny Heck (D) 38
    * NY-20: Chris Gibson (R) 48, Scott Murphy* (D) 45
    * MA-10: Jeff Perry (R) 44, Bill Keating (D) 42
    * IL-17: Bobby Schilling (R) 44, Phil Hare* (D) 41
    * PA-10: Tom Marino (R) 44, Chris Carney* (D) 37
    * VA-9: Morgan Griffith (R) 44, Rick Boucher* (D) 44
    * OR-5: Scott Bruun (R) 44, Kurt Schrader (D) 42
    * OH-6: Bill Johnson (R) 40, Charlie Wilson* (D) 40
      (* = denotes incumbent)




I swear to god if Murphy loses(my Congressman) and I am stuck with Gibson, I am going to want Obama's head on a stick. 

He can't be worse then John Sweeney was. How long have you lived there?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 19, 2010, 08:11:21 PM
Another GOP poll dump  is here (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250263/daniel-webster-46-devil-30-and-other-interesting-house-polls). If these polls are real, the Dems must be close to being in stark terror at the moment.

 Summarizing the big poll dump the NRCC just provided the Washington Post:

    * FL-8: Daniel Webster (R) 46, Alan Grayson* (D) 30
    * PA 3: Mike Kelly (R) 56, Kathy Dahlkemper* (D) 39
    * OH-15: Steve Stivers (R) 51, Mary Jo Kilroy* (D) 39
    * WA-3: Jaime Herrera (R) 51, Denny Heck (D) 38
    * NY-20: Chris Gibson (R) 48, Scott Murphy* (D) 45
    * MA-10: Jeff Perry (R) 44, Bill Keating (D) 42
    * IL-17: Bobby Schilling (R) 44, Phil Hare* (D) 41
    * PA-10: Tom Marino (R) 44, Chris Carney* (D) 37
    * VA-9: Morgan Griffith (R) 44, Rick Boucher* (D) 44
    * OR-5: Scott Bruun (R) 44, Kurt Schrader (D) 42
    * OH-6: Bill Johnson (R) 40, Charlie Wilson* (D) 40
      (* = denotes incumbent)




I swear to god if Murphy loses(my Congressman) and I am stuck with Gibson, I am going to want Obama's head on a stick. 

He can't be worse then John Sweeney was. How long have you lived there?

My whole life.  I took us all this time to get finally rid of Sweeney and Solomon and now we are right back to where we started. 


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 20, 2010, 12:01:37 PM
NY-20 (Chris Gibson (R) internal by POS):

44% Chris Gibson
42% Scott Murphy

http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/33274/new-pos-poll-shows-gibson-up-slightly/


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 20, 2010, 02:59:14 PM
NY-22 (Phillips (R) internal by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies) (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250454/tie-ny-22):

Maurice Hinchey (D)(i)  - 43.2%
George Phillips (R)        - 43.2%

October 19; MoE +/‐ 2.89

Assaulting members of the media - never a good idea.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on October 20, 2010, 03:35:52 PM
NY-22 (Phillips (R) internal by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies) (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250454/tie-ny-22):

Maurice Hinchey (D)(i)  - 43.2%
George Phillips (R)        - 43.2%

October 19; MoE +/‐ 2.89

Assaulting members of the media - never a good idea.

Which is not to suggest that Hinchey is in any danger :P


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 20, 2010, 05:43:47 PM
Much better to handcuff them instead.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 20, 2010, 05:53:26 PM

Also not a good idea.  It's not a good idea to threaten to take them out, either. 

Threatening to take an obnoxious shock jock outside when he keeps on saying crap about your wife's postpartum depression might be okay, though (See Richard Codey). 


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: DrScholl on October 20, 2010, 06:03:12 PM
NY-22 (Phillips (R) internal by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies) (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250454/tie-ny-22):

Maurice Hinchey (D)(i)  - 43.2%
George Phillips (R)        - 43.2%

October 19; MoE +/‐ 2.89

Assaulting members of the media - never a good idea.

Tied with decimals in a GOP internal? Hinchey isn't going anywhere.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 20, 2010, 06:14:32 PM
Republican internal of MO-04 has Skelton and Hartzler tied at 42 each. (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43915.html)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 21, 2010, 07:26:40 AM
NRCC for MA-10 finds Jeff Perry (R) up 44-42 over Bill Keating (D) (http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/po_20101020_4932.php), though it's two weeks old.

DCCC for NC-11 finds Heath Shuler (D) up 54-39 over Jeff Miller (R). (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/dccc-poll-shows-blue-dog-democ.html)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Brittain33 on October 21, 2010, 07:53:28 AM
NRCC for MA-10 finds Jeff Perry (R) up 44-42 over Bill Keating (D) (http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/po_20101020_4932.php), though it's two weeks old.

That race is over given that Keating was narrowly leading in independent polls before "I frisked a girl and I liked it" came back into the news. It is all over the news here and even the Republican talking head was talking about Perry in terms of his negative impact on Romney's presidential campaign.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 21, 2010, 08:12:28 AM
the Republican talking head was talking about Perry in terms of his negative impact on Romney's presidential campaign.
lol talkingheads

But yeah, that does sound like this race is so over.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Sam Spade on October 21, 2010, 10:19:47 AM
NRCC for MA-10 finds Jeff Perry (R) up 44-42 over Bill Keating (D) (http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/po_20101020_4932.php), though it's two weeks old.

DCCC for NC-11 finds Heath Shuler (D) up 54-39 over Jeff Miller (R). (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/dccc-poll-shows-blue-dog-democ.html)


Meanwhile, DCCC threw its first money of the cycle at Shuler yesterday.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Rowan on October 21, 2010, 04:42:42 PM
Tarrance Group(R) for Steve Pearce

Pearce: 50%
Teague: 41%

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/steve-pearce-poll-shows-him-le.html?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 21, 2010, 05:52:48 PM
Tim Walz (D) in MN-01 has him up 50-34. (http://morningtake.posterous.com/mn-cd1-poll-memo-from-grove-insight)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: MorningInAmerica on October 22, 2010, 01:13:46 AM
NRCC for MA-10 finds Jeff Perry (R) up 44-42 over Bill Keating (D) (http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/po_20101020_4932.php), though it's two weeks old.

DCCC for NC-11 finds Heath Shuler (D) up 54-39 over Jeff Miller (R). (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/dccc-poll-shows-blue-dog-democ.html)


Is there anymore polling going on in NC-11, or is the DCCC it? I'd love to see a more credible survey on this race. This district is historically Republican, and was in Republican hands for at least 20 years before Shuler won it in 06.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 22, 2010, 07:11:34 AM
Scott Rigell (R) in VA-02 has him up 46-41 over Glenn Nye (D), with 5% to the independent. (http://library.constantcontact.com/doc209/1102638113865/doc/nL293VQ1N1mB34NS.pdf)

Dem poll of VA-05 has Robert Hurt (R) ahead of Tom Perriello (D) by 47-46, with 3% for the independent. (https://twitter.com/polltrack/status/28068317253)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Rowan on October 22, 2010, 08:14:16 AM
Tarrance Group(R) IA-02

Miller-Meeks (R): 45
Loebsack (D): 44

http://theiowarepublican.com/home/2010/10/22/miller-meeks-leads-loebsack-45-to-44-in-new-poll/comment-page-1/


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Rowan on October 22, 2010, 08:38:43 AM
Tarrance Group(R)

MS-04

Palazzo(R): 43%
Taylor(D): 41%

http://www.scribd.com/doc/39861528/MS-04-Tarrance-for-Palazzo-Oct-2010


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 22, 2010, 08:57:15 AM
NRCC for MA-10 finds Jeff Perry (R) up 44-42 over Bill Keating (D) (http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/po_20101020_4932.php), though it's two weeks old.

DCCC for NC-11 finds Heath Shuler (D) up 54-39 over Jeff Miller (R). (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/dccc-poll-shows-blue-dog-democ.html)


Is there anymore polling going on in NC-11, or is the DCCC it? I'd love to see a more credible survey on this race. This district is historically Republican, and was in Republican hands for at least 20 years before Shuler won it in 06.
When one candidate releases internals showing himself well up, and the other candidate doesn't release any internals at all, it *tends to* mean their own internals agree with the other side's assessment.
Meanwhile, when one side releases internals showing themselves tied or worse but at least a lot better than the last few cycles, and the other side doesn't release anything, it *tends to* mean they have reason not to consider the opponent worthy of attention.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 22, 2010, 09:56:38 AM

That's not true. It is historically a 'marginal' Democratic district that became a more genuine marginal in the 1970s. In the 80s it was a ridiculous swing district, changing hands in 1980, 1982, 1984 and 1986.

Quote
and was in Republican hands for at least 20 years before Shuler won it in 06.

Sixteen years and never really securely (at least by American standards). That louse Taylor lucked out with piss poor opponents for years before getting hit by a wave in 2006.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 22, 2010, 10:06:30 AM

That's not true. It is historically a 'marginal' Democratic district that became a more genuine marginal in the 1970s. In the 80s it was a ridiculous swing district, changing hands in 1980, 1982, 1984 and 1986.

Quote
and was in Republican hands for at least 20 years before Shuler won it in 06.

Sixteen years and never really securely (at least by American standards). That louse Taylor lucked out with piss poor opponents for years before getting hit by a wave in 2006.

This district IS republican +6. in a big wave, republicans should be leading here. and they aren't


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 22, 2010, 10:08:44 AM
Whenever citing PVI while talking about House races, please remember that Democrats tend to underpoll (or Republicans tend to overpoll, use whichever you like) in presidential races in poor and/or nonmetropolitan areas compared to their actual strength there, which is more evident in House races.
Thank you.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 22, 2010, 06:53:37 PM
John Loughlin (R) in RI-01 is claming a 41-41 tie with David Cicilline (D). (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/interal-poll-gop-leads-in-race.html)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 22, 2010, 06:55:41 PM
John Loughlin (R) in RI-01 is claming a 41-41 tie with David Cicilline (D). (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/interal-poll-gop-leads-in-race.html)

LoL


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 22, 2010, 07:11:40 PM
John Loughlin (R) in RI-01 is claming a 41-41 tie with David Cicilline (D). (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/interal-poll-gop-leads-in-race.html)

I'd love to see it.  I was widely mocked on this website for claiming the RI-01 race could be close after Scott Brown's victory and Patrick Kennedy's decision not to run again.  (Kennedy might have been doing worse than Cicilline, though).


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 22, 2010, 07:17:09 PM
If RI-01 were anything near close, the parties would be throwing money at it. Loughlin also hasn't raised much; about 1/3 of Cicilline's take so far.

Dem poll puts Maurice Hinchey (D) in NY-22 up 51-34. (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/democratic-poll-shows-hinchey.html)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 22, 2010, 07:21:20 PM
If RI-01 were anything near close, the parties would be throwing money at it. Loughlin also hasn't raised much; about 1/3 of Cicilline's take so far.

Dem poll puts Maurice Hinchey (D) in NY-22 up 51-34. (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/democratic-poll-shows-hinchey.html)

Show us your actual poll, Hinchey.  If you're shopping it, New York law requires it be filed with the Board within 48 hours.  We'd love to see the wording of the questions.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 22, 2010, 07:29:10 PM
It's for the DCCC, not Hinchey.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 22, 2010, 07:32:37 PM

Under New York law, that doesn't matter:

§ 6201.2 Use of Public Opinion Polls

No candidate, political party or committee shall attempt to promote the success or defeat of a candidate by directly or indirectly disclosing or causing to be disclosed the results of a poll relating to a candidate for such an office or position, unless within 48 hours after such disclosure, they provide the following information concerning the poll to the board or officer with whom statements or copies of statements of campaign receipts and expenditures are required to be filed by the candidate to whom such poll relates:

   a. The name of the person, party or organization that contracted for or who commissioned the poll and/or paid for it.
   b. The name and address of the organization that conducted the poll.
   c. The numerical size of the total poll sample, the geographic area covered by the poll and any special characteristics of the population included in the poll sample.
   d. The exact wording of the questions asked in the poll and the sequence of such questions.
   e. The method of polling–whether by personal interview, telephone, mail or other.
   f. The time period during which the poll was conducted.
   g. The number of persons in the poll sample: the number contacted who responded to each specific poll question; the number of persons contacted who did not so respond.
   h. The results of the poll.

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/RunningOffice.html


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 22, 2010, 07:55:27 PM
Is that even enforceable for Congressional candidates? I mean, what's the penalty for not doing so?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 22, 2010, 08:16:01 PM
Is that even enforceable for Congressional candidates? I mean, what's the penalty for not doing so?

Good question, since their reports go to the FEC, not the state.  I have no idea what the penalty is - probably not much - though the shame from not complying with the law ought to be enough, if used properly by the opponent. 

You will see that for most New York internals, the polling memo often ends up online somewhere.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 23, 2010, 04:48:29 AM
John Loughlin (R) in RI-01 is claming a 41-41 tie with David Cicilline (D). (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/interal-poll-gop-leads-in-race.html)

LoL

Laugh all you want, but Obama is actually heading to RI to make a last-minute campaign stop for Cicilline, and ... Hmm, perhaps we just added two and two?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 23, 2010, 06:40:36 AM
John Loughlin (R) in RI-01 is claming a 41-41 tie with David Cicilline (D). (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/10/interal-poll-gop-leads-in-race.html)

LoL

Laugh all you want, but Obama is actually heading to RI to make a last-minute campaign stop for Cicilline, and ... Hmm, perhaps we just added two and two?

If it's tied in a republican internal, cicilline should be safe.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on October 23, 2010, 10:32:44 AM
Here is one where Norm Dicks (WA-6) is down by 4% (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250787/could-there-be-one-more-competitive-house-race-washington-completely-overlooked), 48-44.  Whatever.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 23, 2010, 10:47:08 AM
Here is one where Norm Dicks (WA-6) is down by 4% (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250787/could-there-be-one-more-competitive-house-race-washington-completely-overlooked), 48-44.  Whatever.

That poll is a sh**t.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Meeker on October 23, 2010, 01:46:34 PM
Here is one where Norm Dicks (WA-6) is down by 4% (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250787/could-there-be-one-more-competitive-house-race-washington-completely-overlooked), 48-44.  Whatever.

Hahahaha


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on October 23, 2010, 02:31:42 PM
Here is one where Norm Dicks (WA-6) is down by 4% (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250787/could-there-be-one-more-competitive-house-race-washington-completely-overlooked), 48-44.  Whatever.

Hahahaha

FWIW, Rossi in 2004 in the governor's race, carried WA-9 by one basis point. So, if his current race statewide is skin tight ... and this election is totally nationalized ? :P


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Meeker on October 23, 2010, 03:05:10 PM
Here is one where Norm Dicks (WA-6) is down by 4% (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250787/could-there-be-one-more-competitive-house-race-washington-completely-overlooked), 48-44.  Whatever.

Hahahaha

FWIW, Rossi in 2004 in the governor's race, carried WA-9 by one basis point. So, if his current race statewide is skin tight ... and this election is totally nationalized ? :P

WA-09 or WA-06?

You also need to keep in mind that voters have been familiar with Norm Dicks since the Ford Administration. To much of the older generation voting against him is simply unthinkable.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on October 23, 2010, 03:08:03 PM
Here is one where Norm Dicks (WA-6) is down by 4% (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250787/could-there-be-one-more-competitive-house-race-washington-completely-overlooked), 48-44.  Whatever.

Hahahaha

FWIW, Rossi in 2004 in the governor's race, carried WA-9 by one basis point. So, if his current race statewide is skin tight ... and this election is totally nationalized ? :P

WA-09 or WA-06?

You also need to keep in mind that voters have been familiar with Norm Dicks since the Ford Administration. To much of the older generation voting against him is simply unthinkable.

WA-9.  Rossi lost WA-6 by 7,000 votes, or 2.5%.  (Yes, I mixed up the CD numbers.) Anyway, that must be why Magnuson won in 1994 - respect for political fossils. Oh wait ...


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Meeker on October 23, 2010, 03:12:01 PM
Here is one where Norm Dicks (WA-6) is down by 4% (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250787/could-there-be-one-more-competitive-house-race-washington-completely-overlooked), 48-44.  Whatever.

Hahahaha

FWIW, Rossi in 2004 in the governor's race, carried WA-9 by one basis point. So, if his current race statewide is skin tight ... and this election is totally nationalized ? :P

WA-09 or WA-06?

You also need to keep in mind that voters have been familiar with Norm Dicks since the Ford Administration. To much of the older generation voting against him is simply unthinkable.

WA-9.  That must be why Magnuson won in 1994 - respect for the old. Oh wait ...

To compare Doug Cloud to Slade Gorton is a silly, silly thing. :)

And Magnuson lost in 1980.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on October 23, 2010, 03:14:14 PM
Yes, I had a soft spot for Slade - not as soft as for Alan Simpson, with whom I was in love, and who should have been POTUS - but a soft spot nonetheless. :)

Time flies when you are having fun. It seemed to me that I was savoring Magnuson's defeat just yesterday, as it were.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: minionofmidas on October 24, 2010, 04:47:16 AM
Ah yes, the Native American's Jesse Helms.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 24, 2010, 09:49:26 AM
Apparently Reid's internals show him up 6: http://twitter.com/#!/edhenrycnn/status/28530720854


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on October 24, 2010, 12:05:49 PM
Republican poll of AR-02 has Tim Griffin (R) up 52-40 over Joyce Elliott (D). (http://twitter.com/polltrack/status/28553640121)

Zata|3, apparently a Dem poll?, has Cedric Richmond (D) beating Joseph Cao (R) 53-36 in LA-02. (http://twitter.com/polltrack/status/28554205976)

Stephen Fincher (R) in TN-08 says he's up 50-35 over Roy Herron (D) (http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-nashville/boehner-to-be-with-fincher-jackson).

Quico Canseco (R) in TX-23 has a poll showing him up 45-39 over Ciro Rodriguez (D). (http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local_news/campaign_notebook_105501308.html)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 24, 2010, 01:10:26 PM
Republican poll of AR-02 has Tim Griffin (R) up 52-40 over Joyce Elliott (D). (http://twitter.com/polltrack/status/28553640121)

Zata|3, apparently a Dem poll?, has Cedric Richmond (D) beating Joseph Cao (R) 53-36 in LA-02. (http://twitter.com/polltrack/status/28554205976)

Stephen Fincher (R) in TN-08 says he's up 50-35 over Roy Herron (D) (http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-nashville/boehner-to-be-with-fincher-jackson).

Quico Canseco (R) in TX-23 has a poll showing him up 45-39 over Ciro Rodriguez (D). (http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local_news/campaign_notebook_105501308.html)


That's good news. I didn't expect AR-02 to be that close.. in a republican internal! Really, Elliot is a hard campaigner, but this race is griffin's to lose =(

And if quico canseco is up by 6% in his own poll, the race should be a pure toss-up ;)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: ajc0918 on October 24, 2010, 02:18:38 PM
Republican poll of AR-02 has Tim Griffin (R) up 52-40 over Joyce Elliott (D). (http://twitter.com/polltrack/status/28553640121)

Zata|3, apparently a Dem poll?, has Cedric Richmond (D) beating Joseph Cao (R) 53-36 in LA-02. (http://twitter.com/polltrack/status/28554205976)

Stephen Fincher (R) in TN-08 says he's up 50-35 over Roy Herron (D) (http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-nashville/boehner-to-be-with-fincher-jackson).

Quico Canseco (R) in TX-23 has a poll showing him up 45-39 over Ciro Rodriguez (D). (http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local_news/campaign_notebook_105501308.html)


Im very impressed with Cao, I mean obviously he's losing but he could reach 40% in a 75% Obama district.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: ajc0918 on October 24, 2010, 08:51:51 PM
Not sure if this has been posted:
http://www.djou.com/profiles/blogs/latest-poll-shows-djou-leading
Quote
Djou For Hawaii
For Immediate Release
October 22, 2010
Contact: 808-277-6051

Honolulu, HI - The latest independent poll in the race for Hawaii's First Congressional District shows Charles Djou leading Colleen Hanabusa by 9 points. This poll comes on the heels of the reports showing that Djou for Hawaii has outraised Hanabusa by over $167,000 in the last six weeks.

"The momentum is clearly on our side," Djou campaign spokesman Daniel Son said. "Despite a million dollar negative ad campaign against us, Charles' dedicated volunteers and his message of fiscal responsibility and government accountability have continued to reach the residents of Hawaii's First Congressional District."

The Djou campaign has knocked on nearly 20,000 doors and made nearly 300,000 phone calls during the General Election.

The telephone survey, conducted by ccAdvertising, showed Charles leading Hanabusa 44% to 35%, with a margin of error of +/-3%. The survey had 2,747 participants.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Meeker on October 24, 2010, 09:04:40 PM
2,747 participants? Uhhh...


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Mr.Phips on October 24, 2010, 09:06:36 PM
cccAdvertising?  Isnt this the same pollster that showed Brown and Boxer trailing in California?


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 24, 2010, 09:37:17 PM
Is anyone else even a tiny bit sick of all these internal 'polls'? I'm glad that there's none of this madness over here and that tight campaign expenditure limits means that won't change...


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on October 25, 2010, 08:16:18 PM
     Sort of disturbing that the press release claims the ccAdvertising poll is an independent poll.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 25, 2010, 08:24:32 PM
Is anyone else even a tiny bit sick of all these internal 'polls'? I'm glad that there's none of this madness over here and that tight campaign expenditure limits means that won't change...

Individual seat polling take all the fun out of election night anyway, in my opinion. In the UK, I love how we can end up with random seats changing hands that no-one ever sees coming.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 25, 2010, 11:27:43 PM
Is anyone else even a tiny bit sick of all these internal 'polls'? I'm glad that there's none of this madness over here and that tight campaign expenditure limits means that won't change...

Individual seat polling take all the fun out of election night anyway, in my opinion. In the UK, I love how we can end up with random seats changing hands that no-one ever sees coming.

We will still have that happening, I almost guarantee it.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 26, 2010, 08:16:07 AM
POS has Mike Fitzpatrick (R - PA 8 ) up ten - 50% to 40% - over incumbent Pat Murphy

http://grassrootspa.com/pdf/fitzmurphymemo.pdf (http://grassrootspa.com/pdf/fitzmurphymemo.pdf)


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on October 26, 2010, 11:41:58 AM
POS has Mike Fitzpatrick (R - PA 8 ) up ten - 50% to 40% - over incumbent Pat Murphy

http://grassrootspa.com/pdf/fitzmurphymemo.pdf (http://grassrootspa.com/pdf/fitzmurphymemo.pdf)

I never believed that other poll a week or so back, that showed Murphy's political corpse was re-animating. There was no reason for him to rise back from the dead.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 26, 2010, 01:53:09 PM
POS has Mike Fitzpatrick (R - PA 8 ) up ten - 50% to 40% - over incumbent Pat Murphy

http://grassrootspa.com/pdf/fitzmurphymemo.pdf (http://grassrootspa.com/pdf/fitzmurphymemo.pdf)

I never believed that other poll a week or so back, that showed Murphy's political corpse was re-animating. There was no reason for him to rise back from the dead.

Fitz doesn't have a ten point lead though. It's going to be close.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 27, 2010, 03:01:17 PM
Jim Marshall (D) internal:

47% Marshall
44% Scott

https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0B_KEK8-LWmzhMGU3ZjIzZGItY2MzZS00ZjQ4LThjMjktYTMzNTUyYjdjZGZk&hl=en&authkey=CJL_4ckE


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Torie on October 28, 2010, 11:16:05 AM
Whether it is an external or internal poll I don't know, but it appears that the neck choker (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/251324/finally-new-poll-ellmers-vs-etheridge) has fallen behind. :)

RCP list this district as "lean Dem" by the way, as does Stu Rothenberg. Sabato has it "likely Dem." Will NC-2 migrate to a new place on their lists?

And I just can't resist adding this little lagniappe from Stu Rothenberg, in his most recent essay (http://static.rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/news/article/house-losses.html), which has overtones of close to a nervous breakdown on his part:

Quote
The magnitude of the GOP victory could be evident relatively early in the evening. If Republicans defeat Democratic incumbents Joe Donnelly (Ind.) and/or Ben Chandler (Ky.), or if North Carolina Reps. McIntyre, Shuler and Etheridge fall, massive Democratic losses are likely.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Sam Spade on October 28, 2010, 11:18:04 AM
Whether it is an external or internal poll I don't know, but it appears that the neck choker (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/251324/finally-new-poll-ellmers-vs-etheridge) has fallen behind. :)

Both Cook and Rothenberg already had it in Lean D...


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 29, 2010, 01:04:29 PM
NY-09 R Internal (http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2010/10/bob-turner-poll-says-bob-turne.html):

Weiner (D)(i) - 52.3%
Turner (R)      - 47.7%

Oct. 10; 4,702 respondents

Hard to believe.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 29, 2010, 01:56:36 PM

Especially the part where it adds up, exactly, to 100. And has some weird weighting that the pollster has yet to explain.


Title: Re: INTERNAL POLL DUMP (PUT ALL INTERNAL HOUSE POLLS HERE)
Post by: cinyc on October 29, 2010, 02:21:30 PM

Especially the part where it adds up, exactly, to 100. And has some weird weighting that the pollster has yet to explain.

The weighting appears to be to the November 2008 voter registration for the district.

While NY-09 is the second least Democrat-leaning district in New York City, it's hard to envision it falling.  Though seeing Chuck Schumer, Jr. lose would be excellent.