Talk Elections

Critical Insights (http://www.pressherald.com/news/Scontras-edges-ahead-of-Pingree-in-latest-poll.html) has Republican Dean Scontras up four points over Chellie Pingree in ME-01.

• Scontras - 45%
• Pingree - 41%

Just a week ago another poll (http://www.criticalinsights.com/assets/CriticalInsightsTrackingSurveyFall2010.pdf) had Scontras just five points behind Pingree.


In ME-02 Jason Levesque is within four points of Mike Michaud according to Critical Insights (http://www.pressherald.com/news/New-poll-Levesque-surges-close-to-Michaud.html)

• Mike Michaud - 44%
• Jason Levesque - 40%

How strange would that be to have all Republican delegation to Congress?

Yeah, so now it's a 19-point swing over two weeks in ME-01. Sure.

Recent polls have put Republicans in front or within striking distance in ME-01, ME-02, NH-01, NH-02, MA-04, MA-10, RI-01, CT-04 and CT-05.  And who knows what's going on in some of the other under-the-radar MA districts.

New England is shaping up to be a potential Democratic bloodbath.  Not bad for a region with zero Republican Congressmen right now.

Maine is one of those 2 CD states where pollsters split 500-600 statewide LV poll samples to provide CD-level polling, leading to high MoEs - usually around 6%.  That almost always leads to higher variation than usual.

I do think that the swings do look a bit odd, since swings like that don't generally occur with an a matter of weeks. I would take these with a grain of salt.

The New England and NJ swings seem to reflect what happened with Brown and Coakley. Trending GOP out of nowhere, it seems.

I don't know how NY and PA been trending.

Happened with Brown/Coakley.

What the hell is this sh!#?

LePage coattails!?!?!

Everybody loves zee French.

Its not a fluke poll, though it may overestimate Scontras a bit.  The district is D+8, but very contrarian.  I suspect they're about even. Pingree has been getting hit hard for a lot of things including the jet trips with her husband and in an eco-friendly district, those predisposed to her might decide just to not vote instead of pull the lever for her.  She's also a physical manifestation of a "rich liberal" when Mainers are unemployed.  That sort of style doesn't play well here - I work in her district, particularly in her stomping grounds - not hearing a lot of good things from people who voted for her the last time.

As for Michaud, I think hes good to go, but he still is in a D+3 district and could be swept away.  I highly doubt it.  Michaud's got a huge presence name wise and is pretty well liked. 

I hope Levesque wins.  He's one of the best GOPhers this cycle.

A guy whose pulling around 40% is not going to have coattails.

Correction: a guy in completely good standing to lose to an indy is not going to have coattails.

Welch has got to be sh**tting his pants. After all, as goes Maine goes Vermont.

LePage makes me ashamed to be French.

I'm French, too... well Franco-American. (Cuban-American also) :)

I'm very sexy. lol

I don't think he is any worse than some of the politicians we see in the mother country. Royal and Le Pen, for example.

I guess my gut feeling is looking to be right yet again!

I win this round.