Talk Elections

New Poll: Washington Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2010-10-31 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2010/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=53320101031108)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 50%, I: 0%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WA_1101330.pdf)

Hmm, 3/4 say they have already voted and Rossi leads by 5 among them.

Probably change this to a Rossi win in my predicition.

This must mean that they have Reid up by a solid margin in Nevada. That or Jensen is just being a total prick with his tweets.

PPP doesn't always have the most favorable results for Democrats. See also the poll with Feingold down 9.

He could be up (and hopefully is), but if you are referring to the retain the Senate tweet it could mean 50-50 with Biden being the tiebreaker they still have control.  That tweet could have been about West Virginia and California being out of reach.

Since Boxer is almost certainly winning, Taliban Patty biting the dust is the only acceptable consolation prize.

LOL. Explain plz.

It's the nickname derived from her belief that Talibans and Bin Laden built daycare centers for kids in Afghanistan.

That would be a stupid thing to do...unsurprisingly.

:(

:)  It is, however, only one poll and I'm not too happy with PPP this year.

She does lead 51-45 with those who haven't voted yet, so I think that's where her win is at. Two points isn't insurmountable with that sort of margin with people who haven't vote yet.

Ah, so it really is game over then. I presume Joe Lieberman is already drafting a press conference speech for Wednesday morning about his intention to switch parties.

FWIW, Fox actually has Murray with a narrow lead, so who knows?

Well, at least we know who bgwah voted for. :)

This race is a falt out tie.  I say that because the polls are close, but, more importantly, half of the polls favor Murray and half of the polls favor Rossi.  For Rossi's sake, I would hate to see him defeated in another brutally close recount.  I guess King County won't be relasing their vote totals until the rest of the state is 100% in!

Fingers are crossed for a GOP pickup. I've changed it on my prediction map. It would be nice to have a victory in the west coast for a change.

I think we're going to lose this.

Murray has a 2 point lead with the Fox news poll. And this poll doesn't include cell phone voters.  Don't say that. 

I say that Rossi wins by ~30,000.

One poll shows a Murray lead of 4% before the election and it's "too close to call" or something, but when Rossi's up by 2 in one poll Democrats are like "Oh my fkn GOD!  SHE IS SO SCREWED!"  


Snap out of it.  Murray's not screwed. It's going to be a close race, either candidate could win.  

...motherf'er. It's PPP, too - post-Kos PPP.

Maybe this race won't disappoint me after all.

Rossi wins, initially anyway, by about 100 votes less than the net change in King County after the "recount".... :)

But seriously.....

Race is damn close, I have Murray barely holding on, but it's a 52/48 thing... tossing a coin is at least as accurate as I can be on this one.

It's weird that PPP is showing Rossi ahead and Rasmussen is showing Murray ahead, considering it's usually the other way around.

()

Ahh, run for higher ground Patty!!!



On a more serious note, I don't believe PPP polled WA much (if at all?) in previous elections, so I don't know what their track record is here. These numbers are still quite unsettling, though. If this thing is close, we won't know who won for a while.

The Rasmussen is actually a Fox/Rasmussen which differs ever so slightly in that the Rasmussen Rasmussen whacks the undecided one more time.  

Either way, they are both well within the margin of error, but the last Rasmussen Rasmussen had Rossi up 1%.

Too close to call.. just the way I like em :)

I don't completely believe this poll. After all, even Fixed News has Murray up. I think I need to see another poll before I call this one for Rossi.

Does King County have an extra 30,000 Murray ballots at their disposal? I thought it was rare if a recount changes the result by more than 1,000 votes.

YouGov says Murray is ahead among likely voters 50.2 to Rossi's 47.5%

Is this old news?

Ya, but there are "re tabulations", sometimes those ballot boxes and/or voting machines that got "lost" suddenly get found.

The President IS from Chicago after all... :)

FWIW, I think PPP had a bad night on this poll, it's just a tad off to the GOP side in a few places.

Really, really close this one... we get to wait for all the mail in ballots to arrive! - Should know by January or so.

In all seriousness, this will probably take until at least Friday.

McClatchy has Murry 49, Rossi 48.

Very close, virtual tie.

And Fox has Murray up by 2.

Have you every stopped to consider that pollsters might be more concerned about their reputation rather than coming up with hopeful results for their fellow partisans? R2000 was a ridiculous polling unit and they weren't even told to come up with good results for the Dems by Kos. They just did it on their own. I am sure PPP won't repeat that same mistake, while at the same time ruining their reputation. You guys get a bit too paranoid whilst talking about Kos.

I find it a bit strange how Rossi accumulated a lead in early voters while he was behind most of the time.

The change could have occured between polls, or most of Rossi's deficit came from those who hadn't voted yet.

Thank you for being a voice of reason.

I'm still betting on Murray holding this one, by a narrow margin. I would love to see Rossi win, but I don't think it is in the cards.


PPP, for some reason or another, is held as the word of god by most people here. I don't really see what makes it so special, other then a tendency to show trends. PPP has a tendency to be volatile.

They've been pretty accurate in most of the primaries so far, and those are more difficult to poll than the general.

They were generally very accurate in the primaries they polled. They have a good polling record. And they release their data and are very transparent in their work.

True, but it seems that they are treated as the go-to poll, and I don't like having a class-A poll. ;) Just my mindset. Gut and Brain say Murray is leading, doesn't mean they're wrong, but I have difficulty seeing Rossi's victory.

I can hope, though.

PPP is a solid polling organization.  Nevertheless, four other recent polls have shown a lead for Murray -- YouGov, Rasmussen, Marist and Washington. 

It is, admittedly, interesting that PPP's last poll had Rossi up by 2 while POR-Rasmussen's last had Murray up by 2.  Reflective of the topsy-turvy polling in this race.

I still think Murray's fundamentals are strong and she will win.