Talk Elections

THIS THREAD IS FOR DISCUSSION OF SENATE AND HOUSE ELECTION RESULTS FOR THE 2010 ELECTION ONLY.

Results links:

Associated Press (http://www.ap.org/elections2010/)

CNN (House) (http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/main.results/#val=H)

CNN (Senate) (http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/main.results/#val=S)

New York Times (House) (http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/house)

New York Times (Senate) (http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/senate)

OK, people, here we go...

Yep....

GOP! GOP! GOP! GOP!

Guthrie cruising.

The results are already starting to come in in Kentucky.

First house race is called: IN-05. R: 1, D 0.

3-0 by now

Anyone got a site with live updates, no refreshing required?

Fox has called IN-06 and IN-08 also, but only online I think.

The Senate races won't be called until the top of the hour. Only half the state's closed.

FOX online House calls:

Democratic [1]
KY-06

Republican [8]
KY-01, KY-02, KY-04, KY-05
IN-05, IN-06, IN-08, IN-09

Post Senate stuff in regional threads :)

Razor thin margin in KY-06 thus far, though it doesn't mean much for another half hour.

I don't think those are calls; just who's currently ahead.

Last poll (10/19) had Chandler (D) up 4, for context.

6:35 update, FOX

Democratic (0)

Republican (11)
KY-01, KY-02, KY-04, KY-05, KY-06
IN-02, IN-03, IN-05, IN-06, IN-08, IN-09

Ugh, jumping the gun a little, Fox?

They've popped KY-06 back to the Dems. I'm guessing their exit polls are absolutely demolishing the Democrats.

First Dashboard:

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Those Fox things are just showing who's leading, not who's projected to win...

Given the margins the GOP is racking up in its safe seats in Kentucky I can see them winning the generic ballot by 15 and not gaining more than 55 seats.

It's early though, even in Kentucky, very little is in.

In 2008, they had similar margins in 1,4,5.

1% in from KY-03, and Lally is ahead. Who knows where in Louisville that's coming from, though.

Less than an hour and Swing State Project is already blowing up...

So stay here...  We run a tight ship!  :)

The AP is getting results up quickly, it looks like, but I only have a link for their House results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/general/by_county/us_house/IN.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Just change the IN for a different state.

Let's just hope it doesn't run aground.

KY-06 had a big swing to the Democrat in the last dump (but only 3% is in).

Unlocked.  Have fun.

Unlocked.  Knock yourself silly.

VanHaaften is putting up a decent fight in IN-08, but he's losing Vigo County, which can't be good. Currently down 52-43.

Looks like Franklin County is coming in strong for Chandler; it's at 63-37 for him.

Charlie Bass leads 7 votes to 5. I'm calling it.

Hodes actually leading in NH.

Hodes is up 7-5, we could very well see an upset tonight. In fact, Lynch is up 9-3, we could see a very big win for Lynch as well.

*Enjoying Hodes lead while it lasts.

NYT Gov map crashed for anyone else?

Bass is obviously picking up Hodes and Lynch voters.

Republicans 8, Democrats 1.

Welch won reelection, this changes everything! :o

CNN calls VT for Leahy.

According to the exit poll, the Green Party candidate in SC is going to break double-digits. And more white voters went for that guy than for Greene.

Leahy and Welch win.

Ok, NPR called SC for DeMint.

Dem is up by 11.3 in KY-06 with 13% in. 
Reps up by 10+ in IN-02. IN-08 and IN-09. 
Rep up by 7.8 in KY-03.

and Vermont is still the best state ever.

Fayette's coming in, so Chandler's still at a 10-point lead. He's actually ahead in many of the counties now, so he's doing okay.

Paul Begala just won the night "two years ago we asked if America is ready for a black President.  Now is America ready for an orange Speaker?

Easily.

Chandler is in which district?

Not for me.

Virginia results are here. (https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2010/EB24720D-F5C6-4880-8DC5-12AE4D0C3772/Unofficial/6_s.shtml)

Griffith is already ahead by 20 in VA-09, while Hurt is up by 51-47. Only a few precincts in, though.

Too early.  Gonna have to wait another 30 minutes.

Rubio near 70% in first returns from Nassau County.

Calls for Leahy, even if expected, makes me little less angry after all crap has been called for Paul, DeMint and Coats.

With 1% in, R leads NH-02 by 16.7%

Speculation is that Florida is the ground zero of GOP wave.

Damned racist progressives.

Rubio devastating everybody in Florida. Seriously how was this ever gonna be competitive?

A bit too soon - Nassau is part of FL-04, which is R+17.

Some more precincts in, Yarmuth is ahead now.

Crist is dead even with Rubio currently, but that will probably change. It has to be encouraging though that he's currently winning Tampa.

If the exits are alright, Shumlin definitely beat Dubie.

FL is pretty close at present.

Updated Dashboard - KY-03 and -06 are Dem leads now.  No Rep Watch List or Dem targets are in yet.

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There are evidently 2 Bass/Hodes voters.  I guess they liked both their former congressmen.

:)

Dem: 1
VT-01

Rep: 11
FL-04, FL-21
GA-06, GA-09, GA-11
IN-06
KY-02, KY-04, KY-05
VA-04, VA-07

F**k you Kendrick Meek (spoken in South Park chinese)

Add KY-01 to that.

NYT has R at 11

Hart County reports from Georgia - massive lead for Isakson.

(Hart is in GA-10, R+15)

In Polish.

Pierdol się, Kendricku Meeku.

Florida is a Dem bloodbath.

Guess what: Eric Cantor might be ... re-elected by a large margin!

Chandler should win based on what I see, but it's far too early to be acting really definitive on that front.

Hill looks like a dead duck, but you can't say that for sure until we see a good bit of Monroe.

Wow, what an upset.

WAVE, WAVE, WAVE!!!!

Virginia:

VA-02 - 2 precincts in from Accomack and Nye is getting slaughtered there, 70-29.

VA-05 - 56-41 Hurt with 18% in. Perriello looks to be underperforming significantly from 2008.

VA-09 - 55-43 Griffith with 14% in. Still early, but not looking good.

VA-11 - nothing in yet. Will probably take forever, since Fairfax is slow as hell at counting.

If the exits are right, Haley is going perform pathetically tonight. Wow.

Damn Rubio is up big.

BIG in Miami-Dade County

Periello up a bit with 7% in. BE STILL MY BEATING HEART.

Grayson getting smashed. Super-early, but Boyd and Brown at risk? Oh my.

He's not any more.

Updated Dashboard - with a Dem target on it now:

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https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2010/EB24720D-F5C6-4880-8DC5-12AE4D0C3772/Unofficial/6_s.shtml

Sorry.

Indiana is looking terrifying at the moment...

Half of KY-03 is in and Yarmuth's up by 9.

58% in KY-06, Chandler up 53-47.

Spratt leads!

With, like, a village or two in. But, hey. It might be the last time anyone writes that.

Shea-Porter looks very vulnerable right now.

Rubio is over 60% in Miami-Dade (with 0.1% in . . .)

So, one upset a side for your model?

We might as well stick a fork in Donnelly. He is down by about 15 points now.

Yeah, but the Northwest Indiana annex to Chicagoland closes later than the rest of the state, as does the Evansville area.

Yarmuth has won re-election, apparently. We're probably not losing 100 seats now, hooray!

Lamestream media calling Delaware for liberal communist Chris Coons.

Not that Florida isn't going to be bad for Dems, but aren't we seeing the massive R edge in early and absentees right now?

Those are Sam Spade's rankings, not my model.  The upset was with 1% in, so it should reverse itself.

Looks like the GOP absolutely destroyed the Dems in early voting in FL.

Grayson is doing horrible right now 62-38 with 6% reporting

The witch has lost?

Both NH seats seem to be likely gone.

VA-11 is going to be tight. Judging by the first few precincts, it looks like Fimian will win big in PW County, while Connolly will do well in Fairfax.

Perriello and Boucher are both down by 10 with 1/2 of the precincts in, I think they're both done for.

Not much in from VA-02, Nye's up in Hampton, Norfolk, and Northampton, while Rigell is crushing in Accomack; I expect Virginia Beach will go hard for Rigell.

Bridgeport, CT precincts running out of ballots, and polls may be held open until 10pm:

http://www.wtnh.com/dpp/news/politics/hartford-no-problems-voting

Almost an exact three-way tie in Broward.

TO early to tell, really.

Joe YOU LIE Wilson is trailing... with like some random poll reporting. Lol.

2 minutes to go....

Ah, yes, the old Democrat let's keep our precincts open longer trick.   I'm sick of those games.  Either all precincts remain open longer or none of them.

Maybe there's some form of cosmic justice...

First results in from Ohio... Wilson up in OH-06, Gibbs and Renacci crushing in OH-18 and OH-16, respectively... and Jim Traficant is ahead of the Republican in OH-17.

Unlocked folks.  Have fun.

A lot of what's reporting in VA-05 is from conservative areas, nothing from Charlottesville and little from Albemarle. Still don't think Perriello is going to pull it out, but that should encourage his supporters.

Boucher doesn't look like he's doing so hot, but Montgomery isn't in yet.

Senator-elect Rubio :(

Beam me up!

NO McMahon is projected to go down. :P

MSNBC announced senator Rubio.

Fox projects Blumenthal in CT, Coons in DE.

According to CNN, Republicans look to be making a sweep of the Virginia congressional delegation, with Morgan Griffith looking as if he will unseat the incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher 53% to 45% with 44% of precincts reporting.

It is still too early to call the 11th...

No! I thought O'Donnell had this one!

Just as a note - Chandler-Barr tightened to 3500 (51-49) votes with 70% in.  Only 79% of Fayette in, but I really don't know these other areas by heart.

Only our prayers can save her now

Delaware At-Large called for Carney.

The magic is gone.

The NPR calling it for Coons...

NOOO.....

StatesRights will be pleased.

Go Alvin go! What if he gets 35%+? I'll call that a victory if that happens.

NH called for Ayotte.

NYT has a net gain of 1 for the Dems. ;) I'll enjoy it while I can.

Caause iiiit's wiiiitchraaaaft, wicked wiiitchcraaaaaft.

Toomey by 2 or so ...

First pick-up of the night? Dems in DE-AL. ;D

From the statewide PVI map, Fayette (Lexington) is the reddest center.  The counties around it are blue.   The next tier are mixed - toward the east, pink (D+0 to D+5); to the west generally blue.  

No, it's YOU.

Exit polling, I assume?  I don't see any results yet.

Was prepared for worse. Its close enough that the real numbers have a chance of being close.

Georgia could lose all of its House Democrats outside of Atalanta.

Shelby is reelected.

Big f**king suprise.

MSNBC presenters chuckling at this.

IN-02 flipped over to the Dems (+2.5) with about half in.

Turn on a TV.

Witchcraft at work.

Hate to sound like mypalfish or whatever but these exits are not really fantastic for Republicans.

Good bye, sweet princess :(

Fox called nothing.

Lol, where is the fish anyways?

MSNBC called it, and the NYT map seems to have it colored in blue.

Connoly in trouble according to MSNBC. Not cool.

Updated Dashboard - more is trickling in:

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The map on NPR says only one county is reporting in.  But yeah, I can't see a Democrat winning in Alabama.

...is their map slow or something?

Haha. O'Donnell received just 82% of Delaware Republicans.

Sandy Adams has picked up Suzanne Kosmas's seat.

Overall, Republicans are leading in 25 of the seats with results.  Not all are listed as reporting if no precinct vote is in.

Which seat is that?

What was the first Republican house pickup tonight btw?

The early vote (I assume?) numbers in Texas look dreadful...

Florida 24

CNN calls FL-24 for Republicans.

North Carolina... Etheridge is winning 60-38 in NC-02. Price is behind in NC-04, but that's with Wake County in and most of the liberal areas out. McIntyre up 55-45 in NC-07, Kissell up 57-40 in NC-08, Shuler down by 4 in NC-11, but very little is in from any of those.

Perriello is going to lose. Hurt is leading in Albemarle, Bedford and Appomattox only have 25 and 33 percent in.

I think it's safe to say Rigell is going to beat Nye in VA-02. Virginia Beach isn't even in yet.

Things still aren't looking good for Boucher, I think he's just not going to get the votes he needs, especially out of Montgomery, where he needs to pull a far healthier margin.

I'll take the risk of pulling a Mypalfish and remind you that I predicted this (sort of) in the final prediction thread.

MSNBC calls it for Blumenthal.

MSNBC calls CT for Blumenthal.

Called for Blumenthal in CT.

Yes!



that means I don't need to tell my HS crush that I had a crush on her.

Barr keeps closing - now within 500 votes in ky-6

:D  

The two seats called for the Dems were two seats thought most certain to go Republican at some point in 2009. If by some small miracle Harry Reid gets reelected, that would be all three.

Tell her anyway. ;)

KY-06 has closed to within 0.3 points, Dem leading.  80+% in:

since when do exit polls favor the GOP?

Early numbers have Barney Frank way behind.

OH-06 not filling me with joy at the moment.

NY Times has VA-9 coloured dark blue? An error? Or are the areas left overwhelming D?

Must be from the rougher precincts of Brookline.

It think the NYTimes screwed up. They called VA-09 for Boucher when his opponent is 7 points ahead with over 70% reporting. They probably meant the other way around.

And Lincoln's gone. Senator-elect Boozeman. +2

That DEFINITELY depends on where the results are in from.

Perriello has been defeated.

Those numbers are ridiculously off, right??

MSNBC has it red, so it is an error, it seems.

Edit: They just fixed it!

For all those who have orgasms over this, Barney Frank trails with <1% reporting.

Yes, they got the wrong colour. Boucher has lost - NY Times.

NYT corrected it - GOP pickup.

These are mostly early results, so no exit polls...

Thought as much. A bit of shame. But Morgan Griffith is such a hilariously Welsh name.

Boucher. :/

Jeff Perry is now in a dead heat in MA-10.

Keating has a sizable margin in the one town in MA-10 that has reported: Eastham. That's on the Cape, which is where Perry needs to win big.

Holding up hope for Rossi, Fiorina, or both winning.

They're early (I'm showing 0% in).  Who knows.

Dems lead in the other 3 MA watched races (MA-05, MA-06, MA-10) - but again, with little in.

Fox calls VA-05 for Hurt.

Wow. Boucher's is a seat we're probably never winning back.

Updated Dashboard:

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R leading in 33, after that run.  32, if you take out DE-AL.

Florida 8th - 67% Reporting:

Alan Grayson 39%
Daniel Webster 56%

Spratt is going splat in SC-05. Down 62-38 with 12% in.

Sad to see Periello go, not too upset about Boucher.

It appears that Kucinich has held on. :)

Damn, the Taliban's winning.

Brown leading in FL-3. pffiuww

IN-08 is called for the Republicans.

Boucher and now Spratt look like two 1994 survivors going down.

DEM hold?

Blanche Lincoln running a tight race with Rick Santorum according to Exit Polls.

Fox: Grayson goes down in flames in FL-08

Grayson and Kosmas both lose.  Nothing surprising there.

Bye bye Alan Greyson! Thank god we won't have to deal with your crap in the House anymore.

I thought the seashore was the more liberal part of the Cape?

lol. The corporate Democrat will not be missed.

Any thoughts on CT-5?

A third is counted and Boyd is down by miles.

yes! Good riddance to trash.

Grayson and Che-Porter were on the top of my list among House Dems.

One of the few gutsy democrats going down. :(

IN-02 is closing, too.

Ayotte is up big. 63-34 so far. Her lead seems to be stabilizing in the 60's rather than declining which is good news.

Dold is ahead with 5% in.

Not sure why they've not called Hill down yet; don't see how he can make up that sort of deficit.

Texas, Rick Perry will win that. Susana Sanchez will win New Mexico. The other states will keep an eye on!

My spreadsheet's first auto call - Ds hold KY-03.

Yes, I saw Eastham went to Patrick by a nice margin which is atypical... but the race in the 10th was also supposed to be very much a geographic one because the two candidates come from opposite ends.

Keating is narrowly winning Plymouth, the part that's reported. Losing Sandwich by about the same margin he's winning Eastham.

MSNBC pointed out that Manchin is the kind of senator who would favour healthcare repeal whereas Lincoln sort of enabled it.

Baron Hill has bitten the dust to Todd Young in Indiana.

Rather bittersweet turn of events. Undoubtedly an asshole on a personal level, Grayson was at least not totally horrible on the issues. Plenty of other Democrats who deserved to go first...

Also, I'll miss you Tom Periello (and you too Boucher I guess)

Over half of votes counted and Price is trailing. That's...

My god that exit poll in the IL Senate race are neck and neck.  Kirk underperformed among men, but overperformed with women.

He got only 25% though in Cooke, which is awful

Dems are really barely holding on KY-06 and IN-02.

Price will pull ahead. Wake is almost all in, Orange is barely half over, Durham is only 9%.

Manchin to win going away in WV.  Wow.

Haha, a precinct of Brookline came in with Frank beating Bielat, 1,063-212. Bielat winning a bunch of random small exurbs with 60% is not going to overcome that. 15 more precincts in Brookline...

Steele more or less conceding the Senate.

My bad, those should be in the governor threads.

MO-04 is close, too (D+0.1) but very little is in.

Stephene Moore is losing 2-1 in KS-03. Guess we can see why she was triaged early on.

Chandler is holding on to a narrow lead in KY-06.

Nazi re-enactor loses in OH-09.

Ah, that's good to hear.

Too bad we'll have one less non-interventionist in the Senate, though.

Price is behind by a tenth of a percentage point with 50% in.

Well that's good.

comparing those results to Scott Brown's I expect its going to be a close one.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/01/19/us/politics/massachusetts-election-map.html?hp (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/01/19/us/politics/massachusetts-election-map.html?hp)

Grayson is out, according to MSNBC.

Grayson now is also down on MSNBC.

Toomey won.  He got 35% in Phili.  That one is over.

Well Manchin's only got two years to prove that he means what he says in opposing Barack Obama, before he's up for election again with Barry himself at the top of the ticket.

The irony of the IL race is that Southern IL could hurt Kirk.  The burbs are still the key.

25% though in Cooke is abysmal. 

Too bad, though he was in a Republican district and he was the GOP's biggest target this year in the House.

If Feingold wins, this night is EPIC.

Heh, Coons winning New Castle 2-1, O'Donnell winning Sussex 60-38.

Expected. At least he went down with style and didn't hypocritically and opportunistically run away from his party like two-thirds of marginal incumbents.

Chandler's down to a 700-vote lead with 94% in. Looks like he won the early vote or whatever in two of the three outstanding counties, though.

Typical.  Kent's not in yet.  It will probably be closer to Sussex than New Castle, but less than 60-38.

Anyone think the GOP has a decent shot at the US House in NJ?

http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2010/new-jersey

District 3: 28%
Runyan 57%
Adler (i) 37%

District 6: 32%
Little 51%
Pallone (i) 48%

District 12: 13%
Sipprelle 61%
Holt (i) 38%

Edit: Update

Edit 2: Typo. It was their typo not mine ;)

unlocked

R+6 right now on the NYT results page.

Rigell's winning Norfolk, this one is so over.

VA-11 is going to be crazy tight. If the current margins continue, Connolly should win by a handful of votes.

Looks like CA won't fare so badly for the Dems.

Dashboard update:

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Frank is crushing Bielat in MA-04.

MSNBC PREDICTS REP MAJORITY???

MSNBC calls the House for the GOP. 237-198

errr... !!!!!

Where did you get that? On the NYT site it is saying 21.6%.

My favorite conservative Jonny Thune wins in SD.  Hoeven of course wins in ND.  Both Schumer/Gillibrand win in NY.  KS stays GOP

depressing, but expected. Ugh.

Feingold too close to call...

tctc in Wisconsin. Quixotic hope can prevail.

237-198

omfg feingold. <3 PLEASE.

+/- 13 seats

Still seems harsh based on the numbers (outside VA) so far, but....

FEINGOLD IS ALIVE!!!!!!!!

Exit is dead even.

tctc in Pennsylvania. Tommey's probably gonna win, though.

Feingold and Bennet get 49% in the exit polls!

Go CO and WI!  Same day registration might save Russ again!

That's awfully specific of them.  

CNN is showing Toomey got 22% in Phila; that is up a bit, IIRC, than Bush's numbers.  In 1994, Ridge won with 25% in Phila, which I think is the best showing of a statewide Republican since I've lived here.

OMFG

Sestak might still pull this of...

The Dems are holding up surprisingly well in the NC house races...

Dems are up by 2 in IN-02.  Movement has been in that direction.  KY-06 is still razor-thin close: D+0.3 with 93% in.

CO and WI are up for grabs.  Again, Democrats ALWAYS close well in WI.

CO would be a huge blow to the GOP.

14% in and PA-11 is really tight. Will have to check where's in.

Oh my God, Jesus Christ, please let that WI exit be for reals...

Pingree and Michaud are ahead at the moment. Take that, Critical Insights!

RUSS RUSS RUSS

Bennet by 49.5-47.0, by winning Independents with a double-digit lead.

With less than 5% in, though.  Critical Insights might get theirs later, but not right now.

*gets hopes up*

Holding CO and WI would be fun to see.

Who's the IND leading in NE-3?

W/ 29% of Philly vote reporting, according to NYT, Toomey has just dropped to a bit under 20%.

There is a God who cares for obscure political internet forums...

Republicans are ahead in both NJ-06 and NJ-12, believe it or not.

That would be encouraging, he's one of the senators I was genuinely sad about. However I'm not so enthused about exit polls considering that CO was one of the Republicans' strong points in early voting.

I know, wtf? It reminds me of how we all went wtf when that Indie was leading in that suburban Edmonton seat two years back (damn, time flies).

Wow things are looking awful right now.

Less tight at 19% now. What's in so far? 29% of Columbia (and it's going for Barletta 68 to 32), 23% of Luzerne, 9% of Lackawanna, 2% of Monroe and 0% of Carbon. Will monitor.

:D

The confusion about exit polls and the inclusion of early votes continues...

The indie in NE-3 seems to be some far-right dude: http://votedanhill.com/site/

Some guy named Hill.  It's only one county, though - and probably a typo.

Sestak is running about 3% behind Obama in Philadelphia, and not doing that well in Berks County (part of Toomey's district) either...but those seem to be the exceptions.  Sestak seems to be performing rather well.  Bizarre?

NH-01 has been called for R's.

The contrast between the Senate and House results so far is rather striking. Moderate Republican gains in the Senate, wave victory in the House.

Fox calls the House for the Republicans. I think the GOP gets 49 seats in the Senate or 48 if Reid pulls it out.

Fox News projects Republicans win the House.  Their models say that Republicans will win 60 House Seats.

Nah better than I thought. GOP takes House but Senate is looking up.

Keating is winning Plymouth. Coakley lost it by 28 points. I don't think the dirty cop is going to pull it out.

Less of the Senate is up than the House.  Project the Senate gains to 100 seats, and you'd probably be about even.

238-197. MSNBC revises prediction.

They're also painting a very gorey picture of Rand Paul single-handedly causing a world wide depression. Infraction point - Excessive hyperbole.

Guinta wins...

Skelton and Spratt chairmen in deep poop.

NC-2 is now very close with about half in. With 42% counted, Spratt is doing a lot better but is still down 52-47. Barrow has finally pulled ahead in GA-12 with 30% in. Boyd is down 56-39 but still not called; presume it's those very Dem areas left out?

If Feingold wins, I actually won't feel depressed tomorrow...

The margin in KY-06 is down to D+0.2.... Now D+0.1...

Help me out, then.

With FL-02, Leon is 89% in - that one is over.

The GOP is going to flop in the big senate races they needed: CO, IL, WA, DE and WV. 

That killed them.

What hacks on MSNBC. They're seriously saying Republicans won't raise the debt ceiling and thus knowingly cause a worldwide depression.

This is analogous to Republicans saying Obama was going to socialize healthcare.

I'm going to go out on a limb and call MA-04 for Frank now.

this i don't even care if boxer loses if feingold wins this election outcome will have exceeded my admittedly tiny expectations

don't troll the house thread with senate stuff.  thanks

Wisconsin is close but unfortunately I think Feingold will lose. Bennett looks like he might hang on though. Looks like there was just a moderate wave in the Senate. The house looks pretty bad, but it should be less than 60.

Lincoln Davis looks to be in big trouble in TN-04, down by 20 with 16% in.

Ben Chandler by less than 400 votes with 96% in.

Joe Donnelly looks like he'll win, he's up by 2,000, and most of what's left is LaPorte, where he's winning handily.

Didn't you predict that we were going to keep the House?

We did lose unexpectedly lose Boucher, and almost lost Donnelly. It looks like we are going to lose Chandler thanks to Conway being a dick too.

That's why I don't watch MSNBC.

I already said that... but they are far from GOP yet.

NJ 3rd is looking pretty, though.

Some seem to think they're included in exit polls. So I wouldn't be able to say that CO is looking not too well right now.

If Chandler loses, it's standard partisan swing stuff, nothing to do with Conway.

Hill is back down to "normal," in NE-3.

Wtf De Mint? Barely 60%?

More votes in.  May not be a typo, though.  It's with 0% in.  Could be absentees.

Blacks went for Greene heavily after all.

Also, David Vitter can book his prostitutes for the spring.

Nunnelee crushing Childers by 20 in MS-01... Palazzo barely ahead of Taylor in MS-04.

Connelly and Fimian are about tied in VA-11 according to latest poll results, with 60% of precincts in.

Connelly (D): 48.7%
Fimian (R): 49.4%

Im impressed no matter how it turns out at this point.

MSNBC is full of idiots, but Lawrence O'Donnell is obviously an intelligent liberal who belongs on a better network.  Smarter than Keith and Rachel and family combined.

Say bye-bye to Melancon, folks.

Updated Dashboard:

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Holy ballbusters Marco Rubio is giving a great speech.

TN-04 called for DesJarlais. Accidental congressman-for-life?

I don't know man, they ran about even in the more urban counties. I think Conway's collapse reverberated downballot to an extent.

Rubio not as scary as Paul. That's all I can say.

Little has pretty much won Monmouth, but she is behind 1% now.

Sipprelle is 60%-39% with 32% in.

Runyan is 58%-48% with 40% in.

with 34% in SC-2 (Joe Wilson's district), he's down 45.8-51.8. Either its the black areas which are heavy, or he'll get a surprisingly close race. Good news, perhaps, either way, for competence and sanity.

Why does Rubio have a tinge of an Irish accent? It's creepy.

Closest:

KY-06
VA-11
ND-AL
NJ-06

Connolly's back in front. I think he wins, because there's more of Fairfax left than PW.

Why do I kinda like Rubio now?

Rubio will definitely run for President one day. Great speech.

ignore

Barletta up about six or so. Percent counted by county: Columbia 86, Luzerne 69, Lackawanna 40, Carbon 39, Monroe 32

CHRISTINE IS SPEAKING!

Whose child has she stolen??

Yeah this is way too much to pay attention to and comment on. Looks like I won't be posting anything from now on.

Fairfax always comes in later; I'm feeling alright about Connolly.

those damn witches

I kind of love that between TN and IN, the Republicans are just getting the seats they'd get in redistricting two years early.

30 seconds after Marco Rubio renewed my faith in America, Christine O'Donnell is taking a dump on my brain.

Duffy (R) is up by 20 in WI-07 with 1% in.   Won't hold, but whatever.

We won, the delaware political system will never be the same.

That's right, you just lost a house seat in a republican wave year. Things will never be the same.

Lol,pretty much.An impressive speech and then something that any soccer mom could do better.

I am not too confident about WI. The NYT split screen feature is quite depressing.

Christine says she has food and they're gonna party. wtf.

She's insane.

Chet Edwards has been defeated - NY Times

Chet Edwards is Congressman no more. But he was one resilient guy, that's for sure.

Joe Wilson is about 50-50 with 50% in on tv. I find that very hard to believe.

With 70% of precincts in:

Connelly (D): 49%
Fimian (R): 49%

It wouldn't surprise me if there is going to be a recount on this one.  

You might have missed a lot about this race if this is the first time you realize this.

It was the "God Bless you... and let's Party" that got my eyebrow cocked...

I kinda loved that concession speech. "Let's partayyyyy!"

Dem should win IN-02.  Up by 1.4 with 99% in.  It's over.

WTF is with Palin claiming Castle would have lost to Coons as well? Is she just trying to rationalize this blowout to her girl or what?

Just fyi, they didn't say that at all. They mentioned the debt ceiling will need to be raised and Rand Paul made a big stint in his speech about being "enslaved to debt." They also mentioned that Rand Paul would have power as an individual Senator to stand in the way of such a raise, and then they talked about the possible effects that would have on the world economy.

That seems entirely reasonable to be and perfectly truthful and legit questions.

But you can go back to the "I hate MSNBC and all cable news" bandwagon now and pretend you're way ahead of the curb.

 
The bulk of Sestak's numbers are coming out of Phila.  There might have been proportionally more white people voting this time.

MI-1  

Benishek (R) up 53-39  with 33% reporting

OMG, Connelly now narrowly has the lead according to the Virginia State Board of Elections website (https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2010/EB24720D-F5C6-4880-8DC5-12AE4D0C3772/Unofficial/6_s.shtml).

Republicans up in PA-7 and PA-8, in case no one's mentioned that yet.

Yes and Americans are dumb enough to believe it.

Christine O'Donnell wtf.....

smh

Wow, it looks like Gerry Connolly (VA-11) is really getting a run for his money. The last time I looked at it, Republican opponent Keith Fimian is actually leading by a few hundred votes.

I still think Connolly is favored, but if he loses, the Republicans will have even more VA House seats then they did before 2008 (if Connolly loses, then the Republicans will have a 9-2 advantage!)

Rubio was all class tonight. Winning helps, I guess.

O'Donnell has no business being in state wide races... in any state.

If Murkowski wins and goes with the GOP (destroying Palin, as a result) and The GOP takes the US House in NJ, then I consider it a very successful night. :p

Sestak is winning in PA.  Aw balls.

Oh well, I'll be happy if the Republicans at least take the House.

Philly and Pit are mostly in...

FWIW, I had Republicans leading in 57 House seats of Sam's 139 in the last run about 10 minutes ago.  I'll post another dashboard update soon.  Data's not in in all seats, natch.

PA would be a huge blow to the Republicans.  What happened?

Dems still holding up surprisingly well across the board in North Carolina; Schuler and Price both won, Kissell and McIntyre have strong leads. Bob Etheridge is in a dead heat though.

YOU LIE!

Really though, that's absolutely unbelievable.

Connelly now has a narrow lead in terms of raw votes, but I have no doubt there is going to be a recount before the dust settles on this race.  

Toomey ties it up in PA.  If the inner counties are left, he may pull it off.  The Exit Polls may be off here.  Philly was 75% to Sestak.  That's the max the GOP can lose there and win PA.

Lincoln county only one still out in KY-6. Chandler up by less that 1000.

Connolly's going to win. He's closed the gap in PW, he's only down by 5 there now, and almost all that's left is Fairfax.

This is perhaps my favourite result so far.

PA marginals...

PA-3: R 54 (65% in)
PA-4: D 51 (46% in)
PA-12: D 51 (25% in)
PA-10: R 54 (59% in)
PA-11: R 54 (66% in)
PA-15: D 47 (28% in)
PA-6: R 52 (7% in)
PA-7: R 58 (27% in)
PA-8: R 52 (39% in)

Please note I don't know which areas are in yet in most cases as I've nay checked.

Wisconsin joined Illinois and Pennsylvania in the tossup/very narrow lead Republican category of a 0.5-1 point lead for the Republican in the exit poll.

I will lmao if this flips.

Not a surprise. I don't know why the news networks were painting it so close so early when there was almost nothing in. Then Prince William was coming in far faster than Fairfax, so there was no doubt that it was going to eventually close up.

Hello all. Well it was exciting when I saw the Pubbie up 10% in IN-02 when I arrived at the gym. I was thinking maybe an 80 seat gain based on that. But by the end of my workout, it was even, and the Dem Donnelly will win by 1,000 votes or so, after I checked what was out, and how many votes were out (not many). So Nate Silver with having Donnelly up by 2% on a plus GOP 54 seat model, translates pretty well into the 60 or so seat gain that I think at least Fox is projecting. Look at the IN-01 results. Skin tight, with about 25% of the votes in. Granted, I have not checked where they were from. IN-01 was my wild guess sleeper seat. :)

So, without parsing more data other than what I watched on the tube, it does look like 55-65 seats to me - for the moment.

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Now, R+56 in the seats in so far.

Kratovil is getting stomped in MD-01. He's losing everywhere but Kent County.

Philly almost in...

83.4% reporting
Sestak 293k (82.5%)
Toomey 62k (17.6%)
Total = 355k

Est total will be over 420k.

Arizona elects McCain.

Lincoln County is Republican-leaning statewide (slight), with 16,000 RVs.  It should tighten a bit - but I don't know if there will be enough votes to make up the 900 or so gap.

Nailbiter.

NBC isn't ready to make a projecting in Utah?!?!

Did they just forget to take an exit poll or something?

MSNBC: 240-195

Reid's ahead in the CNN exit poll? :(

BTW, everyone's welcome to join Dead0man and me in the chatroom (details are in the forum community forum).

Philly:

86.96% reporting
Sestak 308k (82.7%)
Toomey 64k (17.3%)
Total = 372k

Est total will be over 428k.

Bright is up 54-46 with 44% in.

Illinois looks like a rout. Seals fails a THIRD FREAKING TIME. Kinzinger, Hultgren and Schilling all ahead. If Quinn pulls off a win, redistricting would be entertaining.

Oh, you're all welcome in the forum chatroom.

Details are somewhere stickied in the foruml community forum.

The returns from Bucks seem to be coming in a bit faster than Montco and Delaware Cos...at least on CNN.  Toomey winning there but losing the other two.  Interestingly, if the cnn map is to be believed Toomey is losing in the counties he represented in congress...(so far).

wtf is going on in SC-02?

Philly:

91.4% reporting
Sestak 324k (83.24%)
Toomey 65.1k (16.7%)
Total = 389k

Est total will be over 427k.

Joe Wilson down 3% with 55% in...

Can Sestak hold this lead?

YOU LIE! It's not close!

/snark

Dems up 49-48 in Utah with 12% in.  I love crazy early results.  :)

Anyway, that'll go away soon.

Philly:

93.42% reporting
Sestak 332.6k (83.5%)
Toomey 65.5k (16.5%)
Total = 398k

Est total will be over 427k.

Side note:
Casey pulled 424k at an 84+% clip.

Oh no!  Is Toomey going to lose?!

Nunnelee still down by double-digits with 50% in, Taylor down by 3 with 50% in. Skelton down by 9 with 43% in. Pallone and Holt ahead in NJ. Barela and Heinrich tied in NM-01, Pearce up 62-38. Hall down big in NY-19, Hinchey up by 12 in NY-22. Etheridge and Ellmers tied in NC-02. McIntyre, Kissell, Shuler up. Berg up in ND. WTF, Paula Brooks ahead in OH-13?

I will eat a shoe if Lee loses in Utah.

Is Phil pulling his hair out or what?

I am. :'(

Runyan 55-42 with just Burlington County to go... Cherry Hill is already in.

Little falling apart with Union giving a splash result.

Sipprelle a few points behind.

80% for the Democrats in Phili is usually a death sentence for the GOP.

What's going on with Pennsylvania?  I thought we had this in the bag.

Philly:

94.61% reporting
Sestak 340k (83.74%)
Toomey 65.9k (16.2%)
Total = 406k

Est total will be over 429k!

Side note:
Casey pulled 424k at an 84+% clip.

Once Philly and Pitt. go full in (about another 10% of their total for each), Toomey should start making big steps to catch up. I don't think he'll have enough to overtake Sestak though..

Oh my god, I LOVE PHILADELPHIA!

Philly:

95.55% reporting
Sestak 343.6k (83.86%)
Toomey 65.9k (16.1%)
Total = 410k

Est total will be over 429k!

Side note:
Casey pulled 424k at an 84+% clip.

PA could be very close....as in court battle-type close....

I think the time has come to call some of those PA D incumbents down. Too far back now. Sorry.

Kissell holds on in NC-08.

Philly:

96.03% reporting
Sestak 345.1k (83.92%)
Toomey 66.0k (16.04%)
Total = 410k

Est total will be over 429k!

Side note:
Casey pulled 424k at an 84+% clip.

Wisconsin is slow as hell. Feingold better make some big gains if he's gonna take this...

A pretty good night. Mixed results. But that only reflects a people disaffected with both parties.

Sestak is seriously a boss. I love him, and I knew I should have had more faith in him.

Philly:

96.74% reporting
Sestak 347.2k (83.97%)
Toomey 66.1k (15.99%)
Total = 413k

Est total will be over 429k!

Side note:
Casey pulled 424k at an 84.11% clip.

Also, Kerry only got 80% in 2004. This is bad for Toomey.

KY-06 is all in, Chandler by 600 votes exactly.

PA is looking like a future legal battle.

A good clip of Lancaster County is still out, among other places

Best. House. Race. Ever.

Wilson actually trailing now...

Cao getting crushed in LA-02, 58-39. LA-03 is going 2-1 for the Republican.

Goodbye, Chet.  One less...atavism (can you come up with a better word?)...in the House.

Dems projected to win NJ-6 and NJ-12.

GOP wins NJ-3 by about 4k votes. (Unless the Dems find a lot of votes)

Dems still have more representatives in NJ 7-6.

Toomey is going to lose. Wow.

72% counted and Gene Taylor is narrowly behind.

Dems are holding every seat in Mass. MA-10 is the only one in single-digits.

I'm guessing there will be a recount.

It looks to me that Toomey probably has it. The GOP bastions have not been heard from yet nearly as much as Philly (Lancaster is only about a third in for example) which has largely shot its wad. The margins for Sestak in the Philly burbs are narrow. But that is just a quick and dirty look at it all. Sestak is doing very poorly in Western PA, just terrible.

:(

Montgomery is reporting under 30%.
Lehigh under 60%
Delaware still has 10% to go.
Allegheny at 99.2%


Philadelphia up to the minute:

97.21% reporting
Sestak 348.5k (83.98%)
Toomey 66.3k (15.98%)
Total = 415k

Est total will be over 429k!

Side note:
Casey pulled 424k at an 84+% clip.

Montgomery County seems a bit behind...or has it fully reported?

Wilson's opponent Miller in 2008 got 46 percent of the vote. Miller's been campaigning pretty aggressively for a rematch ever since, and Wilson's outburst and other controversies probably haven't helped him much locally.

I concur.  Toomey was also leading in 3 of the 4 PVI bellwether counties last I checked (Bucks, Luzerne, Northampton, Monroe).

PA-3, PA-10 and PA-11 all called as R gains.

PA-12 is over 80% counted and is now quite close.

Montgomery County
Link to County web site for Election Results
*** 124 out of 430 Districts (28.84%) Reporting Countywide ***


I believe the Schwartz troll is mopping up there.

White vote just counted in SC-02, Wilson up by 10. No surprise there, but closer than expected.

MI-1 has gone republican 52-40.8 with 63% in

Looks like Etheridge will be the only Dem in NC to lose.

And suddenly, we have a tied ballgame.

Toomey is going to win, but it won't be very comfortable.

Wow... PA really tightened up... 1% difference now.

Childers has the edge over Nunnelee, but with 56% of the vote in, and only 26% in from De Soto, it will be very tight. That seat cannot be called.

Damn, for once Shea-Porter didn't exceed expectations.

WISCONSIN SUCKS.

Ugh. It looks like Toomey will win by like a point. :(

Boooo.  :(

Damn....

Kind of what some people were trying to say... Philly and Pit got their stuff in earlier than other places.

Wisconsin called for the plastic man. :(

CNN Exit Polls, you are a cruel mistress.

We'll miss you, Russ. Come back soon please.

:(

72% reporting and it is 50/50.

The GOP just flipped PA-7 and PA-10.

The jury is still out an Lancaster and York are both below 50% reporting; 90% of Phila is in.

DAMN YOU WISCONSIN!!!!

MontCo just jumped to 60%.

Sestak went from +7k to +15k advantage there.

With less than a thousand vote difference between Connelly and Fimian (w/ Connelly having a narrow lead) and 97.6% of precincts (164 out of 168) reporting in VA-11, I am waiting for an automatic recount to be called.  It will probably be the first of several...  

Turd.

Sestak is "beating the wind" and "is inspiring", says Chris Matthew, just as Toomey takes the lead.

What's been happening SC-2 was that the Democratic portions of the district reported first.  So far none of the results in South Carolina have surprised me.  Anyway, now that Lexington County has reported SC-2 has been called for Wilson.

Sestak's going down.  :(

Sorry Russ. Maybe you were too good for the Senate.

Johnson whooped ass in early voting.

Yeah.

:(

He ruined it!

I knew this was gonna be a heartbreaker but this is just ridiculous! :(

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Sam may have been a little conservative.

I have Republicans with leads in Net 60 right now.

Toomey's in the lead!

The Amish vote is still out!

Montgomery is only 29% in, don't count your chickens...

59.07%

http://webapp.montcopa.org/election/2010%20General%20ELection%20Result.htm

Funny that it appears the only North Carolina house member to be defeated is Etheridge.

Lancaster is at 75%, Chester and York under 50%.  I'm not counting, but it is still open.

I believe this one is over.  Toomey looks like the victor here.

The Toomey lead keeps increasing bit by bit.  MontCo is at 59.07%, yes, but I don't see Sestak picking up 19k votes from the remaining 40+%.

I'd be surprised if Toomey doesn't win at this point.

You're all still welcome on the forum chat room.

Check out the Mibbit thread in forum community.

Hallelujah! :) He was on my Top 5 for Congressmen I wanted out. I really like Ellmers too, so it's a win-win.

Texas news... Ortiz trails with over 80% in, Edwards is actually getting hammered, Doggett is only on 52%, Rodriguez trails...

Now that Lancaster's coming in more, it's swinging toward Toomey.

Damn you Texas. Damn you. >:(

All right, now it looks much better for Toomey.  PHEW.

Adler loses NJ-03; Fake Tea Party candidate deeply saddened.

Damn. So close. What a bummer.

Just to give the Democrats something to be excited about...

Bachmann is only leading by 6 points, under 50%.

But the El Paso district has been held!

(yeah. I know)

Murphy falls

Double Ditto.

Phila didn't turn out enough to stop him.

Wait, DOGGETT'S in danger?

That I didn't see coming.

Anyway, RIP Russ and all that.  Resurgam should be written on his political grave, though: I don't think we've seen the last of him.

Oh well,at least it wasn't a Toomey +9 like "some" members kept saying...

Wisonsin, Illinois and Pennsylvania are at the top of my hate list right now.

2 of them might still redeem themselves...

Toomey is going to win by about 30,000-50,000 votes or so.  Unless that 3% remaining in Philly is full of mischief, or the Montco votes not counted are all in Chiselham township (sp), and then it will be a tie. Clear advantage Toomey - almost a call to my mind.

Keystone Phil strikes again.

NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MSNBC called Wisconsin for the friend of pedophiles.

The fact that Philadelphia was even able to bring him this close in this environment in the rest of the state is still something I find incredible though.

CA called for Boxer just like that. 

As I mentioned long ago...

The path to victory in PA is either...
Super-overperformance in Philadelphia (over 500,000 votes at +80%), and Pittsburgh and very few other counties.
Very good performance in Philadelphia (over 400,000 votes at +80%), and Pittsburgh and several counties
Good performance in Philadelphia (over 300,000 votes at +80%), and Pittsburgh and very many other counties.

Unfortunately Sestak falls in none of the three.
He had very good performance in Philadelphia (over 429k at 84.1%! which pretty much eclipses Casey's performance), did alright in Pittsburgh (over 408k at 55%, but doesnt match Casey's 459k at 64.9%), but didn't win enough other counties.

If anyone had any doubts about Montgomery county being democratic, it is erased with this election.  Depending on how you equate things, Montgomery is either the 3rd or 4th most democratic county in PA (i say that because Delaware shows greater margins, but has fewer voters).

Fiorina and Whitman both down 10% in the exit polls. The exit polls probably have a pretty heavy Dem bias, but both will probably lose. Murray up by a few points, but how can one do an exit poll, when nobody shows up physically to vote?  

Still 8k absentees to be counted in Bucks tomorrow.  Doesn't seem like it will matter with whats left to count from the votes today...but maybe we'll get lucky.  Toomey can go to hell. :)

Rossi will be close again, but it won't happen.

Upstate NY update...

NY-19: 20% in, Hall down by ten.
NY-20: 32% in, Murphy down by ten.
NY-29: 19% in, Owens up by about three.
NY-24: 27% in, Arcuri down by eleven.
NY-22: 45% in, Hinchey up by nine.
NY-25: 20% in, Maffei down by two.
NY-29: 38% in, R lead of eleven.
NY-27: 12% in, Higgins up by five.

Any news on McCarthy-04 in NY? Can someone give me a link to AP results, thanks!

Sanford Bishop is out.

I'm gonna make some more publicity for the forum chat room, which right now is a liberal cryfest with the possible exception of Morgan.

Dogget is actually a tad below 52% now, but has been called as winner.

Did I mention that Ron Kind is losing?

Delaware was Sestak's home county, and his seat was taken over by a Pubbie, and easily by an 11% margin. I agree with you on Montco. Montco was not hit that hard by the economic malaise, and does indeed have lots of folks who in the NY area, would live in Manhattan, on top of a fairly substantial black percentage. But Philly isn't Manhattan, so they live in the close in burbs. One killer for Sestak, is that Toomey is doing just fine in Chester County. That is a snap back county, along with Delaware, if Sestak was not from there.

I worked for Doggett over the summer, and we got a lot of angry letters and calls, but they were always from the non-Travis/Hays part of the district. Never thought it would be this close. Jesus.

Very ugly for the Dems, but absent looking where the votes are from  ...

But NY-19 is not that heterogenious, so Hall is probably done, along with Murphy of course.

with 30% in, 3300 (6.2%) votes for Doug Hoffman.

Critz and Altmire both made it. PA-7 fell, of course. For some reason PA-6 has yet to be called, despite Gerlach being on 56%.

I haven't checked back on CT, but I can take some solace that your brief prediction of double digit Republican congressmen from New England didn't come to pass.

Why has nothing from NV come in?

As is Kagen and Dems looking unlikely to win Obey's empty seat either. Would be nice, 3 house seat pickup if it holds.

I didn't predict it, I laughed at it - subtly. But I have not checked NE. I know the GOP got no seats in Mass, which I expected. I have not checked CT-4 and CT-5.

Higgins is fine.

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20% counted in NY-13 and there's nowt in it. 10% in NY-4... and McCarthy trails.

For all Feingold fans here: Don't forget that a democratic majority crucified Jesus and forced Socrates to commit suicide. That was my mantra in 06 and 08.

From Ralston on twitter:
Reid 54-42 in Clark. Huge lead. Heck just 400 votes ahead in CD3

Yeah, I knew it was hyperbole... am still curious if Republicans pick up anything outside NH.

From what I've heard there's still lines at some polling places, and they've been holding off on releasing NV results until everyone's voted.  

Bobby Bright up by 8......votes.

McCarthy is supposedly losing by 16 , but with very few votes in (10% of precincts, allegedly).

Unsubstantiated Twitter rumors says:
RosJordanAJE #Nevada state law doesn't allow vote counting in any statewide race if there's a problem @ one precinct when the polls close at 7pm.
37 seconds ago reply

RosJordanAJE The vote counting is BACK ON IN #NEVADA! A power failure at a Vegas polling station delayed the counting by 74 minutes.
about 1 minute ago

RosJordanAJE Still no results yet in #Nevada statewide elex, including the big Reid-Angle race -- thanks to the power failure at a Vegas polling place.

The anti-health care amendment in Colorado is losing 55%-45% and the anti-abortion amendment is losing 73%-27%

The voters of GA-02 finally realized they were being represented by a black and voted accordingly. Too bad. :(

News12 is telling me:

U.S. Congress - District 4  -- 110 of 565 precincts reporting (19%)
   Carolyn McCarthy* (D,WF)    9,290   51%   
   Francis Becker Jr. (R,I,C,TRP)    9,032   49%

Cao getting crushed was pretty much inevitable given his district, but still a bit disappointing. 

Grimm is leading McMahon by 5 points in NY-13, despite Cuomo, Gillibrand, and Schumer all winning there.

Lincoln Davis lost by like 20pts.

He now trails Martha Roby (R) by less than two hundred votes with nearly 90% of precincts reporting.  

I don't.

Had Obama been able to increase black turnout by about 20%, Sestak would be a US Senator (instead of an unemployed admiral).

BTW:  You can, on January 4, 2011, drive from City Line Avenue to about 50 miles east of Pittsburgh and never driver through a Democratic Congressional District.  :)

42% in 53.5% for Reid 42.5% Angle... Clark and Mineral and Carson City are the only ones in.

Nassau BoE, which is ahead of the AP, has McCarthy up by 1 with 20% in:
http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/agencies/boe/results.html

How's Colorado Senate coming along? I seem to conclude that Bennet is a very slight favorite....but I'm not seeing new numbers really.

a little over 6 now.

I put my mouse over Washington, and Rossi was up 6% with about 800,000 votes in, but no county results. That was on the CNN webstate. Is this real?

Addendum. CNN on the air has it now a Rossi lead of 8%.

WTF Nevada??

Toomey is up by 4 points.

Bennet up 5 with Denver 41% in and Boulder 48% in nothing from Colorado Springs.

I don't understand what they're waiting for on PA

At least in Boulder, I get the feeling Bennet is performing only slightly weaker than Salazar in 2004. Not sure how the rest of Colorado will react, but it seems Bennet is slightly ahead....is that correct?

All, and I mean all, the votes are from Clark County. The networks are such a joke. Pathetic!

Yeah they never bothered telling people that the huge early DEM leads in Illinois were from Cook County either.

But quite a lot in from Douglas County, to be fair.

Murray is +4 now that King is in.

Koster is ahead by less than 1 in WA-2, though!

A few times the media has called it wrong.  They are being careful.

Thank God, Nevada.

King County is at 0.00% in WA right now so I'm not too worried about Murray just yet. Down by 7%, at 30% in, with no King County in isn't too bad a position to be in for her.

He is only up by 0.7.

MSNBC says 52-48 (1.86mil to 1.73mil), but PA Election returns says 50.7-49.7 (1.9mil to 1.85mil).

Montco, probably.  

But Toomey should easily have it.  Part of Lancaster's still out, too.

Dewey defeats Truman in Nevada.

Polling had him down 49-45 consistently other than the PPP poll and he was able to pull it off.

It's all going to be up to Arapahoe and El Paso county who decides the next senator for CO. Looks like a late night!

On what basis do you say Reid has won?

MontCo is finished, 100% in.  They should call PA soon/now.

Sestak won MontCo 54.1-45.9 (+8.2%, +23.6k).

Well if the ultraconservative Vegas voted for him...

Kind has now nudged ahead. Teague is a gonner in NM-2.

John Spratt is done, first chairman to lose and Skelton is most likely going down too. I'm amazed Gene Taylor lost, that guy is so insanely right-wing for a Democrat even in Mississippi.

Actually I was wrong, and Angle is losing Washoe County by a bit, with a lot of votes in. All these are early votes, and the polls said Angle would do much better with the today votes. We shall see, but Angle is in deep trouble.

But when you consider that the early votes were about evenly split in partisan affiliation ... ?

OK, they can call California for Brown and Boxer already, seeing as they're leading and the state always becomes more Democratic as the night goes on.

39!  We just took the U.S. House!

Gene Taylor has been defeated.

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Very colorful.  The AP tally of NY-04 is behind; Dem is up now.  Otherwise, everything pretty much falls in line.

Dems win in IA-01, 02, and 03.

I mentioned this somewhere else hours ago, but it would be funny if the three earliest seats we all thought were goners (CT, DE, NV) were all held by quirks of fate while several other seats fell anyway.

Taylor's been an anachronism for decades.

Toomey 51, Sestak 49.  There is still a third of Lancaster county outstanding. 

The Republican Party looks to be consolidating a decades-long shift by the South to the GOP, and it seems like it will be culminating this decade.  Consequentially, a lot of those seats in the South that have just been lost Democrats are never going to get back...  

Absentees (and that is what the CA vote is at the moment) used to be more heavily GOP by a substantial margin, but in the past 10 years that has largely disappeared. But given the exit poll, and the absentee numbers (narrow Dem leads), unless there are big county discrepancies, the Pubbies in CA are done.

Numbers I saw said Reid had leads in Clark and Washoe County(5%). Angle would have to rack up huge margins in the rural counties to have a chance to win at this point(or so says Ralston anyway, who I'm putting my trust in)

Turnout in liberal bastions in Iowa was through the roof this year per afternoon reports.

Benton and Yakima counties may knock Murray down to +2 or so, but I don't see her falling below that.

My judgment of Ralston over the past week was that he's blowing sunshine up our asses. That said, I want to go to bed and this and Bennet are the only races I still care about.

No worries for the Dems, though.  Once the radicalism of having the GOP finally in control of the South sets in, the cleansing of the Northeast and West Coast will cancel it out.

Solomon Ortiz is in real trouble.  He may hold on, but it'll be close.

Which means it can only get better.  Time to call it.

Russ Carnahan is barely ahead.

Schrader looks to be heading to re-election in OR-05. Major SUSA fail.

Her lead has been extended to over 230 votes w/ 90% of precincts reporting.

Needless to say, there will be a recount here too I presume. 

Is this speech really happening?!?!!?

John Boehner is about to collapse from grief.

Toomey pulled it off. 99% career ACU rating from Pennsylvania will be sweet.

The Republicans would be ripping any Democrat who would blubber and weep like Boehner just did.

He just showed weakness. That was embarrassing.

Obama and the Tea Party are going to beat this guy like a drum and he knows it.

The Republicans have not yet found a replacement for Tom Delay in the ass-kicking department.

This really was not an endorsement of Republicans. I fear that Republicans will waste their chance to work with the President and Democrats, and do really positive things, by creating deadlock because they may over read their mandate.

I honestly think that both are equally likely, but clearly, if Republicans read too much into the election, they'll face the voters' wrath in two years.

Did he actually weep tears of joy?  

--

Who are the 'girly men' now?

We still need 16% from Lancaster... it looks good for Toomey.

Boehner is apparently a frequent weeper. He cried when they kicked him from leadership in 1998.

Costa is winning big. SUSA's house polling was pretty crappy.

Murphy wins in CT-05. Another polling fail. Lieberman must be sweating bullets now.

I knew it was coming, but I'm literally sick to my stomach over this.  I don't particularly care about Childers or any race in another state, but this one is a hit below the belt.

Murray now hold a narrow lead over Rossi 50 to 49, with 59% of precincts reporting.

Angle is in deep deep trouble.  I think the networks may be ready to call this one.

I never thought the margin would be THAT bad for Crist!

However, thank God we got rid of Grayson!

c'Mon SINK!!

I want my money back!

I wonder how many heart attacks Phil suffered from while they counted this though?

I lol'd when Bayner cried.

For one term.

Looks like NH's delegation has once again completely switched. :(

I'm slightly disappointed GOP again hasn't done sh*t in New England except New Hampshire.

Solomon Ortiz = dead.  Anyone want to place bets on whether Farenthold can hold more than one term?

Wow, it looks like Fiorina has a legitimate chance...

LA-2 (426 of 431)
"Joseph" Cao (R)   34%   43,262
Anthony Marquize (N)   1%   1,871
"Jack" Radosta (N)   0%   637
Cedric Richmond (D)   64%   82,803

LA-3
"Jeff" Landry (R)   64%   108,957
Ravi Sangisetty (D)   36%   61,909

LA Senate
Michael Karlton Brown (N)   1%   9,955
R. A. "Skip" Galan (N)   1%   7,466
Milton Gordon (N)   0%   4,803
Randall Todd Hayes (L)   1%   13,946
Thomas G. "Tommy" LaFargue (O)   0%   4,037
William Robert "Bob" Lang, Jr. (O)   0%   5,732
William R. McShan (R)   0%   5,875
"Charlie" Melancon (D)   38%   475,566
Sam Houston Melton, Jr. (N)   0%   3,775
Michael Lane "Mike" Spears (O)   1%   9,178
David Vitter (R)   57%   715,276
Ernest D. Wooton (O)   1%   8,160

By 2016, President Palin will disenfranchise all liberals in America.

It's already been called for Boxer..

No emotional; I cried less during my father's funeral.

Redistricting just got much more interesting. A small chunk of the seats Republicans just won are going to vanish from beneath them, and it's only to the benefit of the national party that they'll be won by new Republicans in warmer states in 2012.

Heinrich is holding steady at 52-48.

Surprisingly, Bill Owens is holding on in NY-23.

They didn't, but it does look like Bass will win, so they get both NH seats.

With fifteen percent of precincts reporting in.

My guess is Murray will win.  She's narrowly up in all 4 bellwethers.  (Whatcom, Snohomish, Pacific, Gray's Harbor).

Reversing a call almost never happens.

I say 4 ;)

Giffords looks to be winning in AZ-08; Grijalva ahead slightly as well.

Murray +1.3 with only Cowlitz County left (leans Dem overall, but voted solidly for Rossi in 2008 so who knows). It's certainly not enough to erase her lead even if she did lose it.

Things to remember with Washington:
1) King County is huge and reports slower. This tends to increase the Democrat's numbers.
2) Polls were suggesting early voters favored Rossi---if true, Murray may expand her lead. But of course such cross tabs must be taken with a grain of salt, so we shall see.

Bishop has just barely pulled ahead in GA-02. Only 4% remaining.

Fox News Calls PA for Toomey.  Finally.

The Times appears to have called NY-19 and NY-20.  Glad to see some recovery here despite the mess that was Paladino.

MA was a pleasant surprise in an otherwise pretty bad night.

drama!

Boxer is now ahead by only .3%.

Yahoo! is saying both parties were winners tonights, as both parties will hold part of Congress. Since when has losing 7 or so Senate seats considered a good thing? The only reason this may appear remotely good is because Republicans were given ridiculously high expectations.

Yeah, it's pretty tough to spin this as a good night for Democrats. Could help Obama's re-election I guess, but that's about it.

Any thoughts on CO-Sen?

Minnick is doing pretty badly in ID-01.

Ben Quayle is up by 12 in AZ-03 with 56% in.  So much for that one flipping.

Can enough votes be found to save Russ Carnahan?

That's what I'd like to know... Don't understand what's going on there.

Ah, wow. Just noticed that one.

The curse of Doug Hoffman!

He voted against the stimulus, against health care, against cap and trade, and against pork consistently. And he still lost.

Some judge in Arapahoe county wanted to keep polls open so that's why the votes are coming in late.

Grimm (R) was up by 3.5 in NY-13 with about 75% in.  Last I checked, a little more was out from Brooklyn than Staten Island.  Thus far, he's winning SI by 5, losing Brooklyn by 4.

And he was the token Democrat for the Tea Party and Club for Growth.

IL has been called for Kirk, according to Fox.

Foley in Connecticut?

Fiorina is leading again, according to NYT.

Sestak's children are awesome.

Regarding TX-23, does it take 50% + 1 to avoid a runoff, or is a plurality enough to win?

I think this might be called "a deluge."

Reid wins. Thanks again, Tea Party.

 They should have nominated Lowden.

Reid holds NV, according to Fox.

Klein is down by nine.

What the hell happened in NV? Why was every poll wrong? :(

Why have they already called California for Boxer when it's bascially tied? And Nevada, well, it would have been bad either way. I guess Reid will still be Senate majority leader.

Yep.  Essex is the only county out.  Owens will almost certainly hold on - he won it in the special election.

Reid's political machine/GOTV effort deserves all the credit it gets.

McMahon is gone. Bishop still ahead by a hair; that race has been weirdly stable all night.

I will be amazed if Bennet survives as well. Impressive.

2008 all over again. Underpolling of Democrats.

Based off what is in.  Very little of San Francisco is in.

HARRY REID WINS!!!!!!!!!!

Thank you Sharron Angle!

Boo

Lol Sharon Angle.

Haha. Angle Fail.

very little of OC and LA as well

86% in Bishop up 51.07-48.93

So the Tear Party won what? Paul? Buck looks to be in trouble. Angle, O'Donnell lost. Rubio won, but he's not really been a crazy tea partier.

Sanford Bishop is apparently up slightly, despite the race having already been called against him.

The Republicans could have crushed Reid with Lowden or that Japanese guy.

Does anyone feel bad for Schumer now?

Back from the dead! Harry Reid is an awesome politician.

I'm having a tea party tomorrow

Little children often are.
Poor Toomey's kids will have to miss daddy for the next 6 years. I feel their pain.