Talk Elections

I will be doing another poll next year once we know who all the candidates are going to be.   As of now, how does it look in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky?

Edit: the poll is now officially closed. 

All parties hold.

Jindal should win re-election comfortably, MS likely GOP hold, KY looks could be competitive but looks like a dem hold at the moment.

LA and KY should be easily won by the incumbents.

Don't know what's going on in MS. Barbour is term limited I guess ?

Who could run there ? Democrats don't seem to have anyone popular there to win.

A Gene Taylor comeback maybe? ;D

Isn't Mike Moore going to run?

He always gets talked up but never runs for anything. Not that it matters, I doubt Jesus could win in Mississippi nowadays if he had a (D) after his name.

All will be Republican wins.

Barbour is term limited.

The Lt. Governor is running for the Republicans, Phil Bryant, I think. There are other potential Republican candidates as well.

Not sure about the Democrats.


Jindal is pretty safe and Bashear seems to have gain a lot of ground recently, wasn't he struggling in approvals a year or so ago?

Status quo. 

The percentages are off, Lousiana is 100% and Mississippi is just about there.

Look at the total vote.

LOL@wormyguy not being able to read polls.

You fáil.

hahahahaha :D

Congratulations, you just managed to look like an utter idiot.

Look like?

Louisiana and Mississippi will certainly be held by the GOP, and we have a realistic shot at winning in Kentucky if we get someone good to run. I personally think Todd Lally should give it a go, but we'll see.

Barring an (unexpected) Gene Taylor run in MS, the only seat that could possibly switch parties is Kentucky's. I think Beshar hangs on.

Attorney General Hood would be a top-notch recruit, along with Rep. Taylor.

Beshear is in good shape; KY is unlikely to flip.

MS is leaning towards being a GOP hold. Gene Taylor is probably the only Democrat who would have a chance.

WTF? Lol.

Beshear is likely safe, since Williams has a load of baggage. Bryant will likely keep it for the GOP. Louisiana will see anywhere from 63-71% of the vote for Jindal. Their candidate field is pathetic: Caroline Fayard is the best in a field that includes Kathleen Blanco (praying she runs), Foster Campbell, Walter Boasso (2007's resident bigoted trolls), Jim Shaw (not running) and a couple of other no-names. The LA Democratic Party is in nuclear meltdown. If Fayard runs for LG, as she seems to be indicating, then they'll put up a no-name for the formality.

Bobby Jindal will win re-election 61-36. He’ll instantly be seen as Presidential timber for 2016 or 2020 (particularly if Obama’s looking strong at the end of 2011). The Democrats decide to put up token opposition after a spirited internal struggle in the party to find a viable candidate. Given how Louisiana has shifted to the right since the Clinton years, Jindal should have a very easy time winning re-election and positioning himself for a future in national poliics. His two back to back wins will provide a strong foundation for that.

I think Mitch Landrieu passes in 2011 on challenging the governor, given how hostile Louisiana has become to Democrats lately.  Some Democratic retread will challenge Jindal.

Does anyone know if Attorneys General Buddy Caldwell (D -LA) and Jim Hood (D- MS) are running (or planning to) for the top office in their respective states?  How strong would they be as candidates?  And is it true that Caldwell is planning on switching parties? 

I don't think there's been any indication that either are interested in running for Governor. Democrats are stuck with the dregs in both states.

Caldwell is not running in Louisiana. No Democrat is willing to be a political kamikaze, and Caldwell has been too close an ally to Jindal to make a credible run. Most likely they'll write off that race and focus on the down-ticket ones.

I think we can take KY, though it will be a battle. But I believe there's a good enough storm of the candidate is right.

I know Jindal will (MUCH more than likely) be reelected, but if there's anyone who would make a respectable sacrificial lamb (even though he just he did it last year), it would be Charlie Melancon. I can't help it--anyone who is willing to take on David Vitter is good in my book (same goes with his reaction to the oil spill).

But alas, a sacrificial lamb he would remain.

Melancon hasn't shown an interest, and the Louisiana Democratic Party is defunct for all practical purposes. Louisiana papers have not once mentioned him or the Landrieus (who are also not interested in kamikaze missions, especially Mary in a KBH-ing) as potential candidates.

Blanco: 'Nuff said.
Campbell/Boasso: retread trolls from 2007.
Fayard: the best option. At least it would be a clear contrast (a socially liberal Clintonista, not a Blue Dog like 99% of LA Dems) and a civil discourse. Still a blowout somewhere in the 60s no matter how you spin it, perhaps higher if the Dems are reduced to white liberals and blacks, to be crude about it.
Jim Shaw: not running, he's made noises before and has his own ethical issues.

I don't expect any announcements until after SOTS or even the spring, depending on how Balkanized the field gets.

Melancon wasn't a sacrificial lamb last year. He went into the race thinking he'd be competitive due to Vitter's personal problems; he didn't foresee the GOP wave either. If it were a normal state, Melancon would have defeteated Vitter. Unfortunatly, due to the GOP wave, Vitter got a free pass on his scandals, so Mealncon didn't have much to run against. I don't think he'd challenge Jindal.

Unfortunately, he's damaged goods.

Edwin Edwards has been released from prison today.

If Buddy Roemer can be president than Edwin Edwards can be governor. :P

LA fundraising report: Jindal raised $3.6 million last year for a total of $9.2 million in the bank.  (http://Jindal raised $3.6 million last year for a total of $9.2 million in the bank.) As the VP would say, this is a BFD due to the dirt-cheapness of media buys. Don't expect the sacrificial lamb (s) to appear before SOTS.

Just like in MS and LA the GOP is safe in those states due to the population dipping in the most predominately black perishes that were affected by katrina safe GOP holds.

The GOP wouldn't be safe in MS if Gene Taylor ran...

That's actually an intriguing idea....

He's probably the only Democrat who could win there.

I expect Blanco or Fayard to be the Dem's sacrificial lamb in LA. In KY, the GOP will probably nominate Williams, while in MS Bryant will win unless someone like Gene Taylor runs.

even if Taylor runs, Bryant wins easily.

I don't think so.

I stumbled across this and thought I'd stop in long enough to input on our gubernatorial race. This race is Phil Bryant's to lose. Should Dave Dennis pull off the upset in the primary, it will be his to lose.

I don't think there is any Democrat - any Democrat - who can win the race. And, yes, that includes Gene Taylor. The race won't be close, either.

After the 1999 elections in which Ronnie Musgrove was elected as Governor, Democrats held 7 of 8 Statewide elected offices (Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, State Treasurer, Attorney General, State Auditor, Commissioner of Agriculture, and Commissioner of Insurance). But, after the 2007 elections, the numbers were reversed. Republicans now hold all of these offices except Attorney General.

Mississippi isn't a State that throws out incumbents often, and yet Haley Barbour defeated Ronnie Musgrove by 7 points in 2003, and we just threw out two incumbent Representatives - including Gene Taylor, I might add.

Long story short, Mississippi is no longer a Democrat State in State elections. The possibility of the GOP taking control of the State House for the first time since reconstruction is very real now. This would have been unthinkable until the last couple of years.

I'll throw this in about Attorney General Jim Hood, too. Don't discount the idea that the Dickie Scruggs trial may have done some not insignificant damage to his political standing. His name popped up a lot during that ordeal.

Is a Dem win impossible? No, nothing is impossible in politics, but I'll believe it when I see it and not before.

Nothing but a pipe dream that dems will win MS.

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Louisiana and Mississippi, maybe Kentucky too.

The Republicans are safe in Mississippi (it's only semi-competitive if Taylor runs), and they're safe in Louisiana. As far as Melancon running, as Miles said, he only ran for Senate because he thought he'd be competitive against Vitter (which I'm sure he was, until the wave). Without that, he wouldn't have ran for Senate. I don't think he challenges Jindal, so I'm marking him as safe too.

Also, with La. losing a congressional seat, Melancon felt his chances of being in Congress Jan. 13 were higher running against Vitter than staying in the house. Jeff Landry who won the seat is probably on his way out.

I don't see any major Dem's running against Jindal. Maybe a few term limited state legislatures will run.

If Vitter were up in 2008 Melancon would have been very competitive; the prostitute scandal would have been more fresh back then.

Jindal's first ads on the air. Half the white Dems in the legislature are in swing seats, redistricting and the fact that their tacit concession might well be backed up by not running a candidate, makes for an all-but-dead Democratic Party. Somewhere in the 60s...

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/03/gov_bobby_jindal_launches_firs.html

I am betting they would be. Taylor showed remarkable skill at getting re-elected continually in a GOP district. Alas, for him, the clock finally struck midnight in 2010 and he has no glass slipper

LA is safe GOP. Mitch Landrieu is basically the only candidate that could possibly face Jindal, and he'd rather wait till 2015 and face Jay Dardenne or whoever for the open seat.

I don't see any D winning in Mississippi, barring something crazy happening.

I'd assume Beshears hangs on in Kentucky but I dunno much about the state.

Any more news on a possible candidate against Jindal? Not even a high profile one but any at all?

Caroline Fayard (the woman who lost Lt. Gov. to Dardenne last year) is the only potential candidate I've heard of.

On a related note, what's the current LA law on how the election works? Are they still using a jungle primary where you can win it all in October if you have a majority?

Yes, that's never been changed for state elections, and federal elections are going back to that next year.

Rich guy John Georges - last seen losing the New Orleans Mayoral race as a Democrat - has apparently loaned himself $10 million dollars to run for something statewide. No word what it is or whether he'll run as a Democrat (in 2007 he ran as an Indy).

Fayard is running for Secretary of State (http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/05/caroline_fayard_announces_run.html) so Democrats are still stuck without a candidate.

LA: odds by my estimation are around 60% and increasing that Jindal will be unopposed. The far-right lunatic Northcutt has dropped out so Jindal is the only candidate running. Blanco has $2 million in the kitty but she's not that stupid. Georges is probably not running for governor. This frees Jindal up to help out those downticket, especially washing away the obstructionists in the Legislature so he can get on with his legislative agenda.

When is the filing deadline?

Filing deadline is Sept. 1, the election Oct. 22.

There have been so many party switchers in Louisiana I doubt anyone is left to "obstruct" Jindal's agenda.

It's a bipartisan thing, ironically a lot of the opposition is coming from Rrpublicans. Enough fresh faces with Mansion loyalties can fix that. Though I suspect that most of the Republican opposition are the recent floor-crossers. I mean, it wouldn't be unprecedented to run without opposition: Thune did last year.

Louisiana will likely be Jindal vs. a sacrificial lamb. Mississippi is likely R (only not safe because I see a bit of potential in Gene Taylor), West Virginia will easily vote for Tomblin, and Kentucky is lean to likely D.

Gene Taylor is not running, the Democrats just have some third-tier candidates running.

A Senator running unopposed is quite a bit different from a Governor running unopposed. I don't think that has happened since somewhere in the South in the 1960's.

There will probably be *somebody* on the ballot, but whether they do any better than any of the competitors from '07 is questionable.

Somewhere between 65-70%. The last incumbent election in 1999 had Foster trouncing Cold Cash Jefferson 62-35, and Louisiana was nowhere near as Republican at the state level as it is now. All that's left if there's a Democratic nominee are hardcore liberals and blacks.

At this point, the only Democratic Southern states at a state level are WV, KY, AR, and to a lesser extent NC, the latter becoming a more consistent swing/lean R state. At a local level, Democrats are still strong throughout the South, though I expect that to change at least in Alabama, Louisiana, and the like.

Did you see what happened in the 2010 elections?  Democrats lost everything in Alabama outside of black majority districts.  The same thing happened in Louisiana through party switches. 

Ditto. I think we're going to start seeing a trend in Southern states. Republicans have performed very well there in Presidential and Senatorial races as of late, but were failing at the state and county level. Southern Indiana is, in my opinion, more connected to the South than the "Rust Belt" politically. Democrats usually do very well here on a local level. Even here, I've seen longtime Democrats surprisingly losing.

I think part of this could be at the fault of Barack Obama. He's much more liberal than any recent President, but more importantly, is the first Democratic President we've had since JFK who wasn't from the South.

I hope Mississippi Democrats would never let Taylor survive a statewide primary.  The primary electorate would be what - 70-80% Black - and Taylor voted for John McCain.

Gene Taylor is also the only Democrat that could win the election. Shocker.

With most blue dogs I would say it's better to have them than a Republican, but Gene Taylor has voted with the Democrats on next to nothing, I have little respect for him.

It's MS. I'd rather have a Blue Dog who votes with Dems 50-60% of the time and keeps Democratic control of Congress rather than someone who votes with the Tea Party 95-100% of the time.

The only notable races in Mississippi this year are the Republican primaries.

Welcome back Harry.  Haven't seen your posts in a while.