Talk Elections

Among all GOP voters:

21% Palin
19% Gingrich
18% Romney
16% Huckabee
  5% Paul
  5% Pawlenty
  3% Thune
  2% Daniels
12% Someone else/Undecided

Among conservative GOP voters (71% of the sample):

24% Palin
23% Gingrich
15% Romney
14% Huckabee
  6% Paul
  5% Pawlenty
  3% Thune
  2% Daniels
  8% Someone else/Undecided

Among moderate GOP voters (28% of the sample):

25% Romney
20% Huckabee
13% Palin
10% Gingrich
  4% Paul
  4% Pawlenty
  3% Thune
  2% Daniels
20% Someone else/Undecided

Among liberal GOP voters (1% of the sample):

26% Romney
74% Someone else/Undecided

PPP surveyed 400 typical national Republican primary voters from November 19th to 21st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_1130.pdf

PALIN IS TEH CHOICE OF CONSERVATIVEZ AND ROMNEY IS TEH LIBRUL EVEN THO TWO YEARS AGO WE THOUGHT HE WAS TEH CONSERVATIVE AND PALIN WAS CHOSEN BY TE LIBRUL JUAN MCAMNESTYY.  PALIN 2012!


*this message paid for by a joint effort of the Tea Party Express and Obama 2012 to destroy the Republican Party

Why do I feel like the Republican Party will try their best to throw away a solid opportunity to defeat Obama by nominating a crazy?

Chill out people. National polls are useless.
Just ask Presidents Lieberman and Giuliani.

Newt doing surprisingly well in a national poll.

If Huckabee, Gingrich, and Palin all run, then there is probably a huge opening for Romney or Daniels and a stonger nominee for the party overall.  The Palin nomination scenario would have her winning Iowa and being the only "true conservative" left in the game by Super Tuesday with multiple moderate candidates still running.  Watch Huckabee closely.  If he opts out that spells trouble.  

The only polls we should be looking at for the primary are state polls.

This will be a crazy race. Huck won't run, that will split his votes for Newt and Palin.

Romney will stay Romney strong, but as Mitch, Thune, and T-Paw climb (At least 2 will run) he'll be the one suffering, leaving a wide open race.

2012 should be plenty fun

Respondents were also asked for their second choice.  Second choice breakdown:

Sarah Palin 20%
Mike Huckabee 20%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Mitt Romney 13%
Ron Paul 6%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Mitch Daniels 3%
John Thune 1%

fav/unfavorable numbers:

Mike Huckabee 63%/17% for +46%.
Sarah Palin 68%/22% for +46%.
Mitt Romney 56%/24% for +32%.
Newt Gingrich 57%/28% for +29%.

Those figures are actually more interesting. They suggest that it is actually not a hate her or love her thing with Palin amongst republicans. At least not to the extent often assumed.

Her biggest obstacle will probably be electability against Obama. Conservatives shockingly love her. Personally I think she might be the antichrist, but hey, people have different tastes.

http://www.palinaspresident.us/

Second choice of Gingrich voters:

Huckabee 31%
Romney 27%
Palin 19%
Paul 9%

Second choice of Huckabee supporters:

Palin 34%
Gingrich 19%
Romney 17%
Pawlenty 7%

Second choice of Palin supporters:

Huckabee 24%
Gingrich 20%
Romney 12%
Paul 10%

Second choice of Romney supporters:

Palin 27%
Huckabee 23%
Gingrich 14%
Paul 6%

(Palin supporters seem to be the most likely to get confused by the quesiton, and say that Palin is both their first and second choice.  18% of Palin voters said that she was both their first and second choice.)

Leading second choice of other cadidates:

Romney supporters seem to give other candidates the lowest marks.  Huck and Palin both have a 46% favorable rating among Romney voters.  Gingrich has a 41% favorable rating among Romney voters.  In most other cases, supporters of one candidate tend to give competing candidates favorable ratings of over 50%.  Though Romney has just a 40% favorable rating among Palin voters.

PPP's take:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/11/going-deep-on-republicans.html

I think Palin is the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination.  She has all of the grassroots energy and the backing of the radio flame throwers.  She sucks all of the oxygen out of the room and I don't see anyone on that list who can match her.  She will win Iowa and South Carolina and that will be it.

Unfortunately, this will be like a self inflicted gunshot to the head.  She will lose badly because Independents don't see her as credible.  Much of that is her fault, but the media has played a role as well.  The only thing that stops Palin is a "white Knight" who enters when it's apparent Romney and the gang can't stop her.

I think by next summer, Palin will have consolidated her lead as Huck probably doesn't run.  Same possibly for Newt.  Once it becomes apparent she has a cakewalk to the nomination, I see a "cabal" getting together to prod someone like Christie or Jeb off the sidelines as a duty to the party.

Convincing Huckabee to run is the best Palin antidote.  Together they could throw the nomination to a moderate like Romney or Daniels.

If Palin is only leading by two now, her chances of being the nominee are very low.

and besides all the unknowns rising, that's 2 years for her to gaffe the heck out of this country

Disagree.  This all comes down to Iowa and South Carolina.  She is the big favorite to win Iowa, especially if Huckabee doesn't run.  After skipping New Hampshire, she'll go down to South Carolina where the evangelical conservative base and Nikki Haley will vote for her.  If she wins those two states, it's over.  The fact Palin is viewed so highly even after quitting two years into her governorship shows how strong she is.

Romney was a huge favorite going into Iowa. Things change.

Romney was the favorie in Iowa by default because he spent so much money there.  Still, conservatives had serious issues with him and Huckabee, a social conservative, swooped in and won convicingly.  There are no conservative worries about Palin as there were with Romney.  I think they're two very different instances.  Still, polls can change.

I do love the Republican spin I've seen in real life & on the internet re: Palin. How does her lead mean she has not shot at winning? LOL. The fact that the Republican machine is scrambling to find a way to deal with her shows how much of a threat she is.

Plus, I agree with the above. The caucus process should put Palin over the edge in a state like Iowa. Palin has been making gaffes for 2 years now. She still remains ahead. She can babble as long as she wants and people will not abandon her. (And she will probably weather/play off the attacks of her opponents well.)

Definitely the front runner at this point. She wouldn't have any problem gathering up the necessary support in early primary states, a lot of it is already solidified from her non-stop presence for over two years.

she can't win without the support of jmfcst, who from 1976 has supported every eventual GOP nominee

She'll probably get it then.

Not only is Palin the favorite, she is the prohibative favorite.  No matter what she says or how she says it, her followers become that much more devoted to her.  Considering how strong the conservative vote will be in the 2012 primaries, I feel this race is far, far closer to being over than many might want to think.  Unless there is a major shakeup in the field, she wins.

But what kind of gaffe could hurt her at this point? She has already made a complete fool of herself. Everybody should be aware that she is a moron by now. Will the people who love her really be persuaded otherwise by even more gaffes?

I doubt it. Infact I think that she might be close to gaffe-immune at this point. I too regard her as favourite to win the nomination - especially if Huckabee decides against running.

she's not getting my support as long as someone like Pence or Thune is in the race.  I'd only support Palin over some hack-job like Santorum or a social liberal.

The 2012 race of the GOP presidential nomination is Pence's to lose at this point.  So let it be quoted.  So let it be done.

It is just amazing that so many Americans can't see through the buffoon. Is our mass education that bad?

She loses big if nominated for President. She creates rifts within the GOP on whether to support her or run from her. Her coattails will drag many Republicans down to defeat, perhaps even aiding the return of the Democratic majority to the House of Representatives.

All that President Obama will have to do is to play the Cautious Statesman against her much as did LBJ against Goldwater.  He can leave the heavy hitting to everybody but himself and his closest associates. 

 

If you're really convinced of this, then you could make a lot of money off of Intrade on this.  Pence is only at 1.0 at the moment.

Don't entice the man to lose his money.  I'm serious here; I wouldn't even bet on Daniels and I think if he throws his hat in the ring he will win.  Betting on stuff like this is never a good idea.

It's not a good idea if you lose money.  It is a good idea if you gain money.

jmfcst, you were a giant Palin fan in 08, what happened?

she failed to know enough about the world outside of the state of Alaska, which in turn killed her self confidence and left her to lean solely on a deep bag of shallow folksy idioms...causing her to become everything on the national stage that she wasn't as governor.

and, granted, the same thing could happen to Pence, though I think he has more experience of dealing with national issues

There will be plenty of Santorum left over once jmfcst is done with Pence and Thune.

i believe Santorum is intellectually dishonest and a troll.  I would never vote for him, regardless of his positions.

No to Palin and Santorum. I want some remotely electable.

Uh huh. Here's the real reason: Santorum is a Roman Catholic and we know how well those types play with you, jm.

The Pope would be running the White House, right jm?

You might as well just post that directly into the strawman thread Phil.

Remember that jmf supported Catholic Christine O'Donnell.

Santorum is just a bit more vocal about his religion, wouldn't you say?

No, O'Donnell was even more vocal and a certified witch to boot.

first, it's pretty stupid of you to accuse me of being dishonest about my feelings because I am fearlessly an open book.  Between you and Supersoulty, you two have a history of using your sectarian membership to accuse anyone who disagrees with you, just like Jesse Jackson uses the race card to excuse anyone who disagrees with him as racist.

or better, yet, you're like a dead person in the Sixth Sense - you only see what you want to see....do a search on the posts where jmfcst has used the word "Brownback"....you'll see I was hoping he would run and liked the fact he was Catholic and thought being Catholic would be a political plus for him in a national race.

As for Santorum, my opposition to him has nothing to do with his religion or his positions (the vast majority of which I agree with), because I wouldn't vote for Rick Santorum even if he had been sitting next to me in church over the last 18 years and spoke in tongues every Sunday.  He is intellectually dishonest, a hack, and a troll.  Therefore, I don't trust him.

And the latter contradicts the former.  ;)




No, I'm pretty sure I've used intolerance of Roman Catholicism only against you (and maybe Einzige and BRTD who are admitted haters of my religion) and for good reason.


Probably hoping because he was only a convert (thanks to Santorum, by the way. I'm sure if you knew that, you'd change your tune).


Not sure how he's a hack considering he has stood up to the Bush Administration and the party several times.

So what would be the first possible problem of a Santorum Presidency in your eyes, jm: mandatory participation in the sacrament of Reconciliation or establishing Latin as the official language?

O'Donnell is ex-Catholic turned "non-denominational evangelical", like Palin. No damn country club elitists from Rome will them wut too belive!

Santorum is not much better either. Some of his views like rejection of evolution are proof he's really a low-brower who is Catholic in cultural sense.

Riddle me this…Since I’ve explicitly stated I have a problem voting for Romney due to him being a Mormon, what would be my motive for denying I have a problem with Santorum being Catholic?  The fact is I actually prefer a national catholic GOP candidate over another Christian candidate because Catholic republicans seem less likely to compromise on gayism and abortion, and catholic republicans are usually more electable because 1) they are less likely to be religious loons, and 2)  they have a better chance of winning states like OH and PA.

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I already know that because it was discussed several times on this forum in the run up to the 2008 race.  The fact is I didn’t care who converted him or the fact he was Opus Dei, I was glad to find out Brownback was Catholic due to the reasons stated above.

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I found his WMD press conference highly highly offensive.  1) it was intellectually dishonest – we didn’t invade Iraq because we were looking for some rusty canisters of mustard gas, 2) it belittled the viewing public to think we would buy into such a crap claim, 3) it belittled the service of the soldiers that either had already died in Iraq or who were risking their lives in Iraq.

And even though I am probably aligned with Santorum on 95% of the issues, I can’t remember a politician who has ever made me so angry with a single act, and I am still angry about it today.   I consider Santorum to be the lowest of the low of politicians.  And to top it off, he dresses his kids funny.

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Your argumentative style has a lot in common with Santorum, I can see why you admire the guy so much.

what's your criteria of religious loon again?

Well, duh!
It's Christine f***ing O'Donnell we are talking about.

What the hell is gayism?

A lyric from Give Peace a Chance?

 A weak minded unbalanced person who makes spiritual experience out of taking a dump

Unfortunately, it's socially acceptable to bash Mormons so you can get away with that. You have to appear mainstream on one thing so you act like you tolerate Roman Catholics.



And that makes him a hack?

  
You don't let your kids watch The Simpsons and you want to laugh at how someone dresses their kids? Really?



jmfcst 1:6-7 And thou casts the stone at thy brother, calling him argumentative. Kettle, ye name is black.

'Kettle, ye name is black' makes no sense; 'ye' meant 'you'. Think it would be 'kettle, thy name is black', or maybe 'kettle, thine name is black'. Unless you're from the Forest of Dean, in which case it would be 'kettle, thou bist black'.

:)

I knew I would mess it up somehow.

Oh thank God.