Talk Elections

Might as well start a thread on this one, since it's likely the only one that will be interesting next year.

The incumbent is creationist theme park enthusiast Steve Beshear (D). His running mate, since Dan Mongiardo flamed out last year, is retiring Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson.

The Republicans currently have two candidates running: the establishment pick is State Senate President David Williams, who has Agriculture Secretary Ritchie Farmer as his running mate. The teabaggy candidate is businessman Phil Moffett, whose running mate is State Rep. Mike Harmon.

Now for the fun part: perennial candidate Gatewood Galbraith is running (http://www.fox41.com/story/13595128/gatwood-galbraith-to-run). He ran in the Dem primary last time, but in 1999 was the Reform Party nominee and got 15% of the vote. He supports legalizing pot (endorsed!), among other things.

Primary candidates (winners bolded)

Governor / Lt. Governor

Steve Beshear / Jerry Abramson (D) - incumbent / former mayor of Louisville
Bobbie Holsclaw / Bill Vermillion Jr. (R) - Jefferson County Clerk / teacher
Phil Moffett / Mike Harmon (R) - businessman / State Representative
David Williams / Richie Farmer (R) - State Senate President / Agriculture Commissioner

Attorney General

Jack Conway (D) - incumbent
Todd P'Pool (R) - Hopkins County Attorney

Treasurer

Todd Hollenbach (D) - incumbent
Steve Hamrick (D) - businessman / former Republican candidate for Congress ('92 and '94)
K. C. Crosbie (R) - Lexington-Fayette Urban County Council member

Secretary of State

Elaine Walker (D) - appointed incumbent / former Bowling Green mayor
Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) - attorney / former State House candidate ('09)
Bill Johnson (R) - businessman / U.S. Senate candidate ('10)
Hilda Legg (R) - businesswoman

Auditor (open D seat)

Adam Edelen (D) - former Beshear chief of staff
John T. Kemper III (R) - businessman
Addia Wuchner (R) - State Representative

Agriculture Commissioner (open R seat)

Bob Farmer (D) - marketing executive / motivational speaker (not making this up)
Stewart Gritton (D) - farmer
John Lackey (D) - attorney
David Williams (D) - some guy who isn't the David Williams running for governor
B. D. Wilson (D) - businessman / former Montgomery County Judge-Executive
James Comer (R) - State Representative
Rob Rothenburger (R) - Shelby County Judge-Executive

Primary results. (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/29019/44624/en/summary.html)

It's interesting to compare these maps:

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The former is 1999, the latter is 2007.

The really remarkable thing is that Patton actually came from Eastern Kentucky. But he pissed off people at home with various neoliberal policies.

I assume the Republican nominee in 1999 was from Leslie County? Not a big surprise that Kentucky state politics is really parochial.

Peppy Martin, who's an odd one. Can't remember where she's actually from though.

Wikipedia says she lived in Hart County, which is south of Louisville. It also has a rather charming turn of phrase: "On election night Martin wore a 1950s style formal dress and was defeated by Patton."

Most of the coal country turned brutally against Patton because he did some reforms to workers' comp policies that were very unpopular there. But the reforms were also in response to widespread and systematic fraud with workers' comp in those areas.

Go Moffett!

The filing deadline for the primary passed yesterday. I added a list of candidates for the statewide offices in the first post. Doesn't look like much drama outside of the apparently-popular job of Agriculture Commissioner.

Bumping because the fundraising numbers are in (http://barefootandprogressive.blogspot.com/2011/04/final-1st-quarter-kref-numbers-for-2011.html) for the first quarter:

Governor

Beshear/Abramson (D): $1.2 million for quarter, $4.8 million total, $3.3 million cash on hand.
Holsclaw/Vermillion (R): $22,077 for the quarter (total), $15,289 cash on hand.
Moffett/Harmon (R): $45,883 for the quarter, $100,774 total, negative $513.83 cash on hand
Williams/Farmer (R): $446,943 for the quarter. $1.2 million total, $669,839 cash on hand.

Attorney General

Conway (D): $129,857 for the quarter (total), $115,046 cash on hand
P'Pool (R): $79,482 for the quarter, $352,132 total, $305,647 cash on hand.

Secretary of State

Grimes (D): $303,283 for the quarter (total), $256,347 cash on hand.
Walker (D): $100,420 for the quarter (total), $78,769 cash on hand.
Johnson (R): $13,146 for the quarter, $23,116 total, $3,389 cash on hand.
Legg (R): Hasn't filed yet

State Auditor

Edelen (D): $114,860 for the quarter, $417,605 total. $328,761 cash on hand.
Wuchner (R): $35,074 for the quarter (total), $23,362 cash on hand
Kemper (R): $15,152 for the quarter, $19,327 total, $5,763 cash on hand

State Treasurer

Hamrick (D): $5,560 for the quarter, $7,110 total, $776 cash on hand
Hollenbach (D):$36,275 for the quarter, $46,509 total, $33,302 cash on hand
Crosbie (R): $52,860 for the quarter (total), $48,834 cash on hand

Agriculture Commissioner

Farmer (D): $8,166 for the quarter, $15,914 total, $9,433 cash on hand
Gritton (D): $20,044 for the quarter, $28,819 total, $10,691 cash on hand
Lackey (D): $10,264 for the quarter (total), $1,394 cash on hand
Williams (D): no filing with KREF yet.
Wilson (D): $78,675 for the quarter, $127,450 total, $57,007 cash on hand
Comer (R): $77,365 for the quarter, $180,695 total, $152,758 cash on hand
Rotherberger (R): $8,680 for the quater, $31,555 total, $16,260 cash on hand

P'Pool?? what kind of surname is that? hahaha

A shortening of Pettypool:

http://www.texashistoryhunter.net/ppool.html

thank you ;)

A Republican State Representative is supposedly switching parties. (http://barefootandprogressive.blogspot.com/2011/04/rumormill-gop-ky-house-member-switching.html) You don't usually see one going R to D these days.

Edit: Ah, here's why (http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20110422/NEWS0101/304220085/Jefferson-County-GOP-House-member-switching-Democrats?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Home), the district is 2-1 Democratic in registration and his opponent got struck from the ballot when he was elected last year.

From the link: "They migrated to Northern France and contracted their name to P'Pool to have the french appearance."

OK, there's the strangest sentence I've read today. "Je vous présente M. Dupont, M. Dubois, M. Martin et M. P'Pool" - one of these is not like the others.

He's a right-wing nutball though. I don't know why the Democrats even want him.

Primary is tomorrow. See the OP for who's running.

And here are the pre-primary fundraising numbers: (http://barefootandprogressive.blogspot.com/2011/05/15-day-pre-primary-filings-for-2011-ky.html)

Governor

Beshear/Abramson (D): $200,627 raised since last filing, $284,109 spent since last filing,  $4.9 million total, $1.664 million spent, $3.24 million cash on hand.
Holsclaw/Vermillion (R): $3,925 raised since last filing, $6,566 spent since last filing, $26,699 total, $14,051 spent, $12,647 cash on hand.
Moffett/Harmon (R): $23,328 raised since last filing, $18,446 spent since last filing, $135,978 total, $119,393 spent, $16,244 cash on hand
Williams/Farmer (R): $76,934 raised since last filing, $540,261 spent since last filing, $1.277 million total, $1.07 million spent, $669,839 cash on hand.

Attorney General

Conway (D): $35,530 raised since last filing, $4,206 spent since last filing, $166,353 total, $19,017 spent, $147,336 cash on hand
P'Pool (R): $114,335 raised since last filing, $6,428 spent since last filing, $466,467 total, $54,914 spent, $411,552 cash on hand.

Secretary of State

Grimes (D): $75,377 raised since last filing, $19,954 spent since last filing, $378,660 total, $66,889 spent, $311,770 cash on hand
Walker (D): $23,025 raised since last filing, $8,258 spent since last filing, $123,945 total, $29,909 spent, $94,036 cash on hand.
Johnson (R): $925 raised since last filing, $2,574 spent since last filing, $24,041 total, $22,300 spent, $1,890 cash on hand.
Legg (R): $24,525 raised since last filing, $11,411 spent since last filing, $143,910 total, $26,844 spent, $117,065 cash on hand.

State Auditor


Edelen (D): $14,390 raised since last filing, $6,817 spent since last filing, $431,995 total, $95,660 spent, $336,334 cash on hand
Kemper (R): $3,330 raised since last filing, $6,426 spent since last filing, $22,657 total, $19,991 spent, $2,665 cash on hand
Wuchner (R): $7,658 raised since last filing, $1,758 spent since last filing, $42,730 total, ~$13,500 spent, $29,261 cash on hand

State Treasurer

Hamrick (D): $600 raised since last filing, $400 spent since last filing, $7,710 total, $6,753 spent, $957 cash on hand
Hollenbach (D): $15,470 raised since last filing, $7,922 spent since last filing, $63,479 total, $22,628 spent, $33,302 cash on hand
Crosbie (R): $4,650 raised since last filing, $0 spent since last filing, $57,510 total, $4,025 spent, $53,484 cash on hand

Agriculture Commissioner

Farmer (D): $400 raised since last filing, $0 spent since last filing, $16,341 total, $6,508 spent, $9,833 cash on hand
Gritton (D): $10,175 raised since last filing, $6,207 spent since last filing, $38,994 total, $24,335 spent, $14,659 cash on hand
Lackey (D): $15,080 raised since last filing, $12,078 spent since last filing, $25,244 total, $20,948 spent, $4,396 cash on hand
Williams (D): no filing with KREF yet.
Wilson (D): $17,260 raised since last filing, $45,959 spent since last filing, $144,710 total, $116,402 spent, $28,307 cash on hand
Comer (R): $19,610 raised since last filing, $69,558 spent since last filing, $200,305 total, $97,494 spent, $102,810 cash on hand
Rotherberger (R): $2,390 raised since last filing, $17,455 spent since last filing, $33,945 total, $32,750 spent, $1,089 cash on hand

Polls close at 6 PM Eastern (1.5 hours from now). Results here. (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/29019/44624/en/summary.html) Or here for the AP results (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/KY_Page_0517.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS) which seem to be faster.

Upset brewing? Moffett/Harmon is ahead 44-34 with about 4% reporting.

Precincts coming in from eastern KY (Ashland and surrounding counties) are have Williams up 45-41 with just over 12% in. Is he from that region I assume? He's absolutely dominating there.

IIRC there's a runoff if no one makes it to 40%.

Also, as occurred with the Senate primaries last year, the KY SBOE is getting numbers in a different order than the AP is meaning there's no real way to tell who is "correct".

Au contraire, mon ami. Clicking on one of the counties colored in as "reported" on the SBOE site will list those precincts reporting statewide in which counties. No partially reported counties there, but plenty on AP's.

Williams up 43 to 38 with nearly 30% in. Tough to gauge based on where the vote's still out. Moffett's still in it.

This would be a huge upset based on the spending figures posted yesterday by JLT.

The Jefferson figures are the weirdest part. I'm guessing this Holsclaw woman is from there?

If it's any help, the idiot Williams is from Burkesville, which is in the Central Time Zone.

Not anymore, they did away with the runoff in 2008.


Yes, she's the county clerk or something like that.

In the other races, Bob Farmer appears to be headed toward a win for Agriculture Commissioner on the Dem side, based solely on the similarity of his name to incumbent Richie Farmer. And the woman Beshear appointed as SoS is losing her primary.

With over 40% in Williams up 45-39.

Moffett's path to victory is difficult to see at this point but this is still going to be a lot closer than what people were expecting.

Yep. With a bit over half reporting he's down 46-40. It looks like his early lead was caused by a big vote dump from Fayette county where he won big, but is now tapped out. He's taken a narrow lead in Jefferson, but it's essentially a three way race there and his margin won't help too much unless a bunch of precincts from his home neighborhood suddenly report. He is slightly ahead in the important Cinci burbs, but again not much margin overall and mostly reported also. He's getting killed in Eastern KY, but the vote totals there are generally small. Hardin county might close the gap some, but he'll need to start showing strength when the western counties report or he's probably done.

Still, impressive performance as Meeker noted, considering he was outspent over 10-1

With about 70% in Williams is up 46-39. Unless western KY turns out to be Moffett country, expect this to get called before long.

While Moffett is considered the Tea Party favorite, Williams has apparently done a strong job sucking up to them by measures including coming out for repeal of the Seventeenth Amendment mandating direct popular election of senators.

Are there any Republican politicians south of the Mason-Dixon who aren't crazy? ::)


EDIT: And then, with hardly anymore precincts added from the last post Williams's lead is down to 45-40. Hmmmm......

Turnout seems to be really low; it's currently at about 113,000 on the Republican side, whereas it was over 200,000 in 2007.

It appears the largest yet unreported county now is Pike. Unless it goes VERY differently than the rest of east KY has tonight, it should come in big for Williams.

Almost 80% in, yet not a single vote counted out of Pike so far, and Williams still up 45-40. The fat lady is clearing her throat, methinks.....

EDIT: Closer to 80% and margin now 46-40.

Over 85% in, the west seems to be coming in for Williams (albeit not in as great a margin as the east and south), he has a 46-39 margin, and Pike still 0% reported.

This one's over.

Looks like the Secretary of State race (on the Dem side) is tightening as Western Kentucky comes in. Not surprising, as the incumbent is from Bowling Green. Probably not enough to reverse the result, though.

The Republican side has been a 50/50 race all night.

Moffett hasn't shown much strength outside north central KY (other than Owensboro) and that region's almost entirely reported. Almost 90% in (and Pike continues playing the tease) with the margin now 47-39. AP should call this any minute. Not sure why they haven't yet.

They just called it. Also, looks like the SoS race didn't tighten anymore, it's still 55-45.

Pretty much everything is in now. Williams beats Moffett 48-38, Grimes defeats appointed incumbent SoS Walker 55-45, Bob Farmer wins the Ag Commissioner nomination with 30%, and the Republican primary for SoS is currently a 1,002-vote margin for Bill Johnson.

This may be a dumb question but does Kentucky require a run-off in primary where no cantidate receives more than 50% of the vote?

No, there are no runoffs in Kentucky.

Thank you!

So this makes five primary elections in Kentucky since the runoff provision was added if no candidate gets 40% (before that, there was no runoff provision, and Governor and Lt. Governor were nominated and elected separately), and there hasn't been a runoff yet.  Back when there was no runoff, people winning the Democratic primary (often tantamount to election) for Governor often had percentages in the 30s and (in 1979 at least) in the 20s (29.14%), and Democratic Lt. Governor nominees had winning percentages as low as 23.15% (1979; Martha Lane Collins, who was elected Governor four years later, getting 33.97% in that primary).  Republican nominees for Governor usually won majorities and the lowest winning percentage for Governor from 1975 on was 41.42% in 1987.

Source: various election results pages linked to from this Atlas's Kentucky Election Results (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=21&f=0&off=99) page.

...

While I was rambling, ...


Even for Governor/Lt. Governor in the primary if no candidate gets 40%.  I know that was the requirement to avoid a runoff (for Governor/Lt. Governor only) from 1995 through 2007 and I hadn't been aware of that being repealed.

It was repealed in 2008.

Whoo, map time!
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Okay, thanks.  It would have been kind of funny (in an eyes rolling kind of way) if no Republican had gotten 40% in this primary.  Of course, the repeal of the runoff and the public knowledge thereof might have impacted various candidate's decisions as to whether or not to run.  If there still had been a runoff, the top two candidates' percentages might have been lower.

Gatewood Galbraith filed to run for Governor as an independent. (http://www.wave3.com/story/14742775/galbraith-enters-governors-race) He'll probably be the only third-party option on the ballot in Kentucky.