Talk Elections

yeah, i know im stating the obvious.  but the networks never emphasised that point enough.  i assume it was because the exit poll for pa was just dead wrong.

what went wrong with that particular exit poll?  was it bad just because it over-sampled women?

I think one poll had Kerry +11.

Looking at the polls, I was thinking "Why are they calling it?". I would not have. Looks like I was right not to.

I was surprised they called PA so early too.  And FL so late, when FL was 5-10% Bush the whole night.  Wouldn't that be embarassing for the networks if Bush did edge out Kerry in PA??

To be fair, you're comparing many states that were expected to be close (but didn't turn out to be) to states that weren't.

For example, there was a poll out close to the election that said Arkansas was tied.  Bush did better than expected in many of these Arkansas-type states, and thus comparing them to California and Illinois and whatnot is silly.

The exception is New Jersey.  Shrug.

Selective.
Why did NH take so long?

Vorlon, I think the problem is the exit polling, which was skewed kerry in the raw sample, lead them to believe that the close Kerry states were not close and the close easy win Bush states were close Kerry.

1% is much?

I do think the answer lies in the exit polls, rather than structural bias by the network itself.  I can't figure out why, but it is clear that the exit poll results leaned way more to Kerry than the actual results did.  Hence states that looked like easy Kerry victories were closer than expected and states that looked close turned out to be fairly easy Bush victories.

2000 was a bit similar, but not nearly as dramatic in the gap between the exit polls and the actual returns.

An interesting table.  Would it be possible to include number (or preferably %) of precincts reporting at the time of the call?   

It was an over sampling of Philadelphia, is what it was.

big difference, most of those Bush states were considered to be swing states at one point, all those Kerry states were thought to be rather safe from the start. Was there any point when it was in doubt Kerry would win Maryland or Connecticut?

I remember J. J. talking about how blacks were so unethusiastic and there would be such low turnout. lol.

There are a few states actually where the change in turnout versus 2000 was really amazing.

Some of the increase patterns are interesting, the Dems for example made up a lot of ground in places like New Hampshire and Minnesota

The folks running GOTV in Florida get the MVP award on this one however.

Kerry for example got 23% more votes in Florida than Gore did - pretty amazing, except Bush boosted GOP turnout in Florida by 36%. - Bush got more than a million more Florida votes in 2004 than 2000 (!)

The Dems modestly won GOTV in Ohio, the GOP had a bit of an edge in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Virginia, North Carolina and Wisconsin were basically a draw at the turnout game.

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That's a very interesting table there.

Do you have the numbers for every state handy?  I think would provide an interesting example.

Yes, and I reported that there was a high turnout in African American areas, which was surpassed by a higher Caucasian turnout.  The precentage of turnout in Phila, as part of the overall PA turnout was slightly lower (about 0.1%) from 2000 in 2004.

It's funny that while much of the country trended towards Bush, Southeast PA continues to trend Democratic. The next county in Southeast PA to go Dem: Chester. Compared to the national or even state average, they are moving left and quick.

Call me crazy, but I could have sworn that West Virginia was called immediately?

In any case, all statistics cited miss one vital point: TOO CLOSE TO CALL IS DIFFERENT THAN NOT REPORTING. States like Montana showed Kerry - only a few counties were reporting. They weren't too close to call. They just didn't have enough data to report. Other states got this data immediately, or were virtually guaranteed.

Yeah, and I don't remember New Jersey being called right away... I was watching the whole time.

The early vote count was really skewed towards Philadelphia.  Kerry had like a 20% lead with 1/2 the precinct counted, which must mean that Bush carried the other 1/2 by around 16%.  So you had two halfs with about a 36% difference (or about the difference between Rhode Island and South Carolina).

By contrast, the margin in Texas was pegged with about 20% of the vote in, and did not move by even 1% as the rest of the votes came in.

Well, it's not a new trend.  In 1986, Bill Scranton carried SE PA against Bob Casey; I'd have to check on Bush in 1988, but in general the large Dem turnout in Phila was neutralize in most election from about 1960 until 1992.

In 1992, Clinton won the region.  In 1994, Ridge, while winning statewide, lost the region to Singel, even though both candidates were from the western part of the state.  Excepting Ridge's fairly big win in 1998, this has been the pattern in all Presidential and gubernatorial elections.

During this time, the percentage of the PA vote from Phila has dropped, including this election.

In the state of Pennsylvania the GOP moved down by 0.8% compare to 2000.
In 2000 Bush was there by 1.54% below his national number.
In 2004 this gap went up to 2.34% which is by 0.8% greater than 1.54%.
Again, the absolute number went up by 1.8%, but each such number should be compared to the 2.6% Bush’s national grow.

They're still counting votes in Ohio. Those votes are overwhelming Democrat thanks to all of the partisan Republican challengers.

Yeah, I seem to remember West Virginia being called pretty fast.

What does Dave base his call times on? I remember quite clearly thinking "wow, West Virginia was called so quickly." I'm 90% sure it was with the original batch, Vorlon.

In any case, your numbers are still invalid. They do not take into account "not enough data" calls.

Shira, none of what you've said here is relevent to the areas of the state where there is overall party strength. 

In 1984, Mondale ran about 2.5% better in PA using your standard.  That indicated nothing about 1988. 

Pennsylvania was close in 88, if Dukakis had done a little bit better he would've taken it.

In additiion to having a bunch of provisional ballots thanks to partisan Republican challengers, Ohio still had people actually voting at 3 AM. Ohio will definitely end up with a closer margin than PA.

Yeah, I think they closed it as soon as polls closed. Funny how the Vorlon is always trying to say that the right-wing media is liberally biased.

You could basically make this statement about lany losing candidate, possibly excepting Bush in 1992.  PA is, and has been, a swing state.

I don't think that there was in bias here on anyone's part except for Vorlon, who I like a lot, but does occasionally manipulate information to make a point. I think that his chart was a mix of misunderstanding and wanting to prove a point.

That being said, most people do not even know the difference between "too close to call" and "no information," even here.

I remember WV being called as soon as polls closed.
NH was called damn slow.

You are ignoring the main point I am trying to make, which is that West Virginia was called only after they had suffiient data to report. You are NOT taking into the account slow reporting.

And isn't it just odd that CNN didn't call, say, California for a while? I also still remember CNN calling WV immediately. Maybe AP disagreed. Blame AP. Blame the West Virginia elections system. But you're finding media bias where it isn't.

You're usually a lot more intellectually honest than this.

His memo saying that it was called 18 minutes later was forged. Yeah. That's the ticket.

In 1984 Mondale in Pennsylvania was by 5.44% better than his national number.
Dukakis in 1988 was better in Pennsylvania by 2.74% compare to his national number.
In 2004 Kerry in PA was 2.12% above his national number and Bush was 2.34% below his national number.

Call times from CNN, central standard time:

Tuesday
6:00 PM: IN, KY, GA, VT
6:30 PM: WV
7:00 PM: CT, DE, DC, ME (3), MD, MA, NJ, AL, IL, TN, OK
7:30 PM: VA, SC
7:41 PM: NC
8:00 PM: NY, RI, NE(4), SD, TX, WY, KS, ND
8:33 PM: LA
8:34 PM: MS
8:53 PM: NE (5)
9:00 PM: UT
9:13 PM: AR
9:15 PM: MO
9:52 PM: PA
10:00 PM: CA, ID
11:10 PM: AZ
11:11 PM: FL
11:25 PM: MT
11:27 PM: CO
11:41 PM: OR

Wednesday
12:00 AM: AK
12:09 AM: ME (4)
12:19 AM: NH
12:36 AM: WA
1:32 AM: MI
1:33 AM: MN
1:35 AM: HI
2:55 AM: NV
4:05 AM: WI
1:12 PM: OH

Friday
Around 12:00 PM: IA, NM

Like I said though, you're comparing states that were considered swing states at one point at least, to states that never were. Arkansas was considered a swing state back during the summer, California never was. And to keep things interesting the media never updated the list of swing states, even as they were conceded and the candidates pull out.

Again, is there even one Bush state that was called fast compared to states of similar margins?

Again, is there even one Kerry state called slowly versus states of similar margin?

Please present even a single example from either the "slow Kerry" or "fast Bush" category...??

no, but there was no states once considered swing states that was won by Kerry by 10+ points.

Compare two swing states won by Kerry and Bush by similar margins.

Yep, Chester is next.  I was afraid though of NE Philly going Bush though.  Simply put, Katz/Street backlash.  Amazingly even the heavily GOP 66th Ward in Philly went for Kerry.  Reagan won 13 of 14 Wards in NE Philly in 1980 and 10 of 14 in 1984.  I wonder if this is something I shoudl still be concerned about. 

Didn't NE Philly vote 66% for Gore? For it to vote for Bush then would take a swing that would be greater than Los Angeles county voting for Bush.

Here are 3 swing state examples:

Example # 1

Missouri - Bush + 7.3% - Called in 136 Minutes
Washington - Kerry + 7.14% - Called in ZERO minutes

Example # 2

Florida - Bush +5.02% - Called in 255 Minutes
Oregon - Kerry + 4.10% - Called in 62 Minutes

Example # 3

Colorado - Bush + 6.45% - Called in 204 Minutes
New Jersey - Kerry + 6.17% - Called in ZERO minutes

Again, is there even one Bush state that was called fast compared to states of similar margins?

Again, is there even one Kerry state called slowly versus states of similar margin?

CNN took 5 hours, 33 minutes to project MN, which had a 3.5% margin. Seems like a slow Kerry to me. CNN also took 3 hours, 35 minutes to call Hawaii which had an 8 point margin. Again slow Kerry.

Now, compare Virginia (also 8 point margin) to Hawaii. Virginia was called after 1 hour 30 minutes by CNN.

There were 8 states that Kerry won by between 5 and 11%

With the sole and exclusive exception of Hawaii (where polls did not close till waaay late) CNN projected every single one for Kerry essentially upon poll closing. 

Connecticut : Bush + 10.47%      1
California : Kerry + 10.36%      0
Illinois : Kerry + 10.12%      5
Arkansas : Bush + 9.83%   195   
Hawaii : Kerry + 8.74%      96
Virginia : Bush + 8.23%   101   
Maine : Kerry + 8.03%      0
Delaware : Kerry + 7.57%      2
Missouri : Bush + 7.30%   136   
Washington : Kerry + 7.18%      0
Colorado : Bush +6.45%   204   
New Jersey : Kerry + 6.17%      0
Florida ; Bush + 5.01%   255

There were 5 Bush states between 5% and 11% - The FASTEST Bush state was Virginia at 101 minutes - slower than the SLOWEST Kerry state.   

Average of Bush states between 5 and 11% margin => 179 Minutes
Average of Kerry states between 5 and 11% Margin => 13 minutes (under 2 minutes if we exclude Hawaii)

Again, I am sure just a product of bad exit polls :)

There's no way Bush really won Florida by more than 5%.
And BTW, you're cherry picking. What's so special about 5% and 11%?

Actually, it was more than 5%, but just slightly over. I guess 5.01%.

I thought the polls in HI closed at 10:00 PM CST. CNN called it at 1:35 AM. That's more than 96 minutes.  Anyways, your challenge was to find ONE state that fit into either fast Bush or slow Kerry. I submit that I have done just that.

In addition to bad exit polling, another cause for delayed Bush calling may have been that it's usually the cities that report first, giving Kerry a huge boost off the start in most of the swing states (OH being the lone exception as far as I know).

Shira, what shows, using you theory is that PA is becomming a Republican state.

I respect you Vorlon and don't want to be picky, but I would really like it if you would respond to my comment about the lack of data being reported. I assume you are not ignoring it, but just haven't seen it.

After the exit polls, I think the media was "assuming" Kerry was going to win....which is why they were more cautious and probably surprised about calling Bush states, and more certain in calling Kerry states.

Well, Vorlon, I think you are finding bias where there is none (I'm not sure why you're not going to post anymore here, but that's fine.) I think they were basing it on exit polling.

Sounds sensible enough.

I guess I just think there are too many examples of HUGE differences in the time it took to call states with very similar margins for it to be a co-incidence...

Here are 18 states to look at....

These are states where the Bush and Kerry margins of victory were very very similar, and we are NOT talking a few minutes difference in call time, we are talk literally HOURS of difference...

If it was one or two states I'd say it was a fluke.... but 18 states where there was a dramatic difference in the call times and ALWAYS faster for Kerry than Bush...?

You don't think this is a tad strange..?

Seriously... do you HONESTLY contend that Bush and Kerry states were called at a similar pace...?

Look at the data....

BTW this is no cherry picking.. I simply take every state that was even remotely close and compared it to the closest state from the other guy (in terms of % margin) above and below...

The Kerry States

Arizona : Bush +10.47% - 208 minutes to call
Connecticut : Kerry + 10.36% - 1 minutes to call
Arkansas   : Bush +9.83% -195 minutes to call

three HOURS difference...????

Arizona : Bush +10.47% - 208 minutes to call
California: Kerry +10.22% - 0 minutes to call
Arkansas   : Bush +9.83% -195 minutes to call

three HOURS difference...????

Arizona : Bush +10.47% - 208 minutes to call
Illinois :Kerry +10.12% - 5 minutes to call
Arkansas   : Bush +9.83% -195 minutes to call

three HOURS difference...????

Virginia : Bush +8.20% - 101 minutes to call
Maine : Kerry + 8.03% - 0 minutes to call (3 of 4 EVs)
Missouri : Bush +7.20% - 136 minutes to call

Two HOURS difference...????

Virginia : Bush +8.20%   101 minutes to call
Delaware : Kerry +7.59% - 2 minutes to call
Missouri : Bush +7.20% - 136 minutes to call

Two HOURS difference...????

Missouri : Bush +   7.20% - 136 minutes to call
Washington : Kerry + 7.18% - 0 minutes to call
Colorado   : Bush +   6.45% - 204 minutes to call

Two HOURS difference...????

Colorado   : Bush +   6.45% - 204 minutes to call
New Jersey : Kerry + 6.17% - 0 minutes to call
Florida : Bush +   5.01% - 255 minutes to call

Three HOURS difference...????

Florida : Bush +   5.01% - 255 minutes to call
Oregon : Kerry + 4.00% - 62 minutes to call
Nevada : Bush +2.59% - 354 minutes to call

Three HOURS difference...????

The Bush States

Rhode Island - Kerry + 20.74% - 0 minutes to call
Mississippi : Bush +20.30% - 90 minutes to call
Vermont : Kerry + 20.14% - 0 minutes to call

1 and a half HOURS difference...????

New York   : Kerry + 17.27%- 0 minutes to call
South Carolina : Bush +17.08% - 102 minutes to call
Maryland   : Kerry + 12.98% - 0 minutes to call

1 and a half HOURS difference...????

New York   : Kerry + 17.27%- 0 minutes to call
Louisiana  : Bush +14.51% - 29 minutes to call
Maryland   : Kerry + 12.98% - 0 minutes to call

half HOUR difference...????

Maryland   : Kerry + 12.98% - 0 minutes to call
North Carolina : Bush +12.65% - 72 minutes to call
Connecticut : Kerry + 10.36% - 1 minutes to call

1 + HOURS difference...????

Maryland   : Kerry + 12.98% - 0 minutes to call
Arizona : Bush +10.47% - 208 minutes to call
Connecticut : Kerry + 10.36% - 1 minutes to call

3+ HOURS difference...????

Illinois : Kerry + 10.12% - 5 minutes to call
Arkansas : Bush +9.83% -195 minutes to call
Hawaii : Kerry + 8.74% - 96 minutes to call

3+ HOURS difference...????

Delaware   Kerry + 7.59% - 2 minutes to call
Missouri   Bush +   7.20% - 136 minutes to call
Washington   Kerry + 7.18%   0 minutes to call

2+ HOURS difference...????

Washington : Kerry +7.18% - 0 minutes to call
Colorado : Bush +6.45%   204 minutes to call
New Jersey : Kerry +6.17% - 0 minutes to call

3 and a half HOURS difference...????

New Jersey : Kerry +6.17% - 0 minutes to call
Florida : Bush +5.01% - 255 minutes to call
Oregon : Kerry + 4.00% - 62 minutes to call

3+ HOURS difference...????