Talk Elections

PPP poll of Minnesota:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MN_12081023.pdf

Obama 51%
Gingrich 38%

Obama 50%
Huckabee 40%

Obama 54%
Palin 36%

Obama 47%
Romney 42%

Obama 51%
Pawlenty 43%

job approval / disapproval:
Obama 49% / 46%
Pawlenty 43% / 53%

favorability / unfavorability among all voters:
Gingrich 30% / 52%
Huckabee 37% / 40%
Palin 35% / 60%
Romney 32% / 42%

favorability / unfavorability among Republicans only:
Gingrich 58% / 21%
Huckabee 64% / 16%
Palin 70% / 23%
Romney 53% / 23%

Pawlenty job approval among Republicans only:
approve 83%
disapprove 12%

Despite Palin's high favorability #s, she gets the lowest GOP support in a general election matchup with Obama.  Only 76% of Republicans say they'd vote for Palin over Obama (most of the rest are undecided), whereas for Romney it's 87%, and for Pawlenty it's 90%.  This is a pattern that shows up in other states, that PPP noted in this post:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/12/palins-republican-problem.html

Palin has very high favorability ratings with the GOP, but the minority of Republicans that doesn't like her seems willing to at least consider backing Obama over her.

Ha! Another Palin-fail

How many polls will it take for top flight Republicans to come out and say publicly what everyone knows?  Palin can't win.  She is a great person, but that doesn't mean she should be president.  There is no national poll which demonstrates she has a chance.  I think we can draw conclusions on national polls at this point because Palin and Obama are about as well known as two politicians can be.

This isn't so much a Palin-fail as a Pawlenty fail. I mean, he's the governor of the state, you'd expect him to be doing the best here, and instead, he pushes Obama over fifty.

She's unelectable, but everyone is scared to say it.

If you heard Bloomberg's speech this morning, I think you'd reconsider her chances in a general election (unless you want to buy what Marist-McClatchy, one of the worst pollsters in the country, is selling).

Surprising. I thought it would be closer than this.


Almost every state is a Palin fail to one degree or another.


Get real. Democrats loathe her, Independents hate her, and even quite a few Republicans wouldn't vote for her.

One on one with Obama, I think even you would admit she would be a pretty big underdog.

She's unelectable.

I say this without fear.

Hamilton,

There is absolutely no reason to believe that Bloomberg won't run a hard third-party campaign against both Obama and Palin.

He'll be popping out the rainbows, painting both of them as homophobic and inexperienced.  In other words, he'll be saying the same thing about Palin as Obama will be saying.  Palin would of course help matters by building up Bloomberg by attacking him, rather than Obama, to create the perception that he can win.

She is clearly a heavy underdog in a one-on-one but there is no reason to believe a strong center-left indy will not run against Palin and Obama.

What evidence is there of such a thing happening?

Why would Bloomberg waste so much money on something that he couldn't win, and in a worst-case scenario (which I frankly don't see) of throwing an election to Palin?

It makes no sense...

Everything written about Bloomberg suggests that he will run in the event his two opponents are Barack Obama and Sarah Palin.  As to why he would run.  Who knows but I for one believe there needs to be a "centrist" alternative to Barack Obama and Sarah Palin.  There needs to be someone who can breach the divisions between the right and left.  I'm happy that people who support gay marriage and the public option and tax increases on the wealthy will have a choice and that choice....is to vote for Michael Bloomberg.

lol... the centreist option to Barack Obama is Barack Obama... Bloomberg is way to the left of Obama's public positions on quite a few things.

How are Republicans supposed to win this election again?

Run a dark horse.

Lawlenty!

This must be the deluge.

I hear jmfcst has some ideas!

The only credible path to victory for Palin is one in which Bloomberg runs.  That's why we hear about him from time to time.  Unfortunately for Sarah, Bloomberg is not going to run because he knows he has zero chance of winning.

I'm hesitant to write this because I don't want to be viewed as antisemitic, but do you really think the country is going to vote for an Independent candidate who is a Jewish billionaire from New York City?  The two party structure is firmly in control in the US.

What red states would Bloomberg steal away?  What blue states would he steal away from Obama?  Obama's problem with his base is he hasn't been liberal enough.  Does anyone really think the liberals will decide to abandon him for a moderate or whatever Bloomberg chooses to call himself?

Bloomberg's not running because he can't win and it would be a colossal waste of money.

Didn't PPP show that a Bloomberg candidacy would hurt the Republican candidate more than Obama?

Their poll does indeed show Bloomberg drawing more from Romney than Obama in an Obama-Romney-Bloomberg race:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128613.0

Though I'm not sure the average voter has any clue what Bloomberg's political platform is.  In a real race, Bloomberg's impact would depend on what he's running on.

No, PPP showed Bloomberg hurt Romney.

All the reporting suggests that bloomberg will run with Palin as the nominee.  As to why he would run when he couldn't win, why not?  The guy craves attention.  If he gets 20-25% of the vote, he'll go into the history books as a significant figure.

It's not a surprise to me that those who identify with the Democrat Party are the ones so eager to push back against the idea of Bloomberg running.

Is this guy for real or just another of Hamilton's socks?

Are you sure you want to play this game Minnesota boy?

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/12/how-dems-see-gop-2012-field.html

The data I was citing came from one of your own party's pollsters.  8% on average of the Democrat Party votes for her over Obama from the seven states polled.

Around 7.5% of Republicans vote for Obama over her from the same polling (if you exclude Massachusetts Republicans who aren't irrelevant in a general election anway).

It's probably never a good idea for a hack like yourself to ask me what polling am I looking at.  As for bloomberg, all the polling showed was him hurting Romney.  No other republican was polled.

How are Republicans supposed to win this election again?

Only chance would be have a Romney/Rubio ticket in 2012.......Palin? No way!

That this is Palin fail is of course routine by now, but it's interesting how much of a Pawlenty fall this is. When you're losing by 8 in your home state, you certainly have serious problems.

Pawlenty has not exactly been trying to endear himself to Minnesota swingvoters recently.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6BB0VI20101212

Bloomberg says will not run for president

Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst

WASHINGTON | Sun Dec 12, 2010 10:28am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said on Sunday, "no way, no how" will he run for the U.S. presidency.

Appearing on NBC's "Meet the Press," Bloomberg said he intends to remain focused on being mayor, and that those urging him to seek the presidency "should cease and desist."

"The bottom line is that I've great job," Bloomberg said. "I want to go out being, having a reputation, as a very good, maybe the greatest mayor ever."

"I'm not going to run for president," Bloomberg said.

But he said he will continue to speak out on national issues that impact New York, such as immigration, federal regulation and U.S. trade.

A multibillionaire and founder of the Bloomberg news media empire, Bloomberg is a former Democrat turned Republican turned independent. He is in his third term as mayor of New York.

While some of Bloomberg's backers have urged him to run, Bloomberg attributed talk of a White House bid to the news media.

"Most of this is just because the press wants something to write about," Bloomberg said.

(Reporting by Thomas Ferraro; editing Doina Chiacu)