Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Tender Branson on December 14, 2010, 04:35:19 AM



Title: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on December 14, 2010, 04:35:19 AM
There will be a referendum next June about the points mentioned above. The defense ministry is currently working on 5 alternative plans, out of which the most effective "professional army"-plan will be put to a referendum.

As you may know, Germany recently ended their draft, that's why there's a big debate about it here too.

There were only 2 referendums so far in Austria since WW2 (one about the introduction of nuclear energy in the 70s, which was rejected and the joining of the EU in the 90s, which was approved).

You have to know that if the draft is abolished, the Civil Service will also be abolished. The Civil Service is rather useful to organisations like the Red Cross, Caritas and Nursing homes, because Civil Servants are cheap and provide a high standard of rapid emergency care with the Red Cross. It it would be abolished, it would be a big blow to these organisations.

The opinion polls are currently slightly in favor of abolishing the draft.

I´m currently very undecided about how I would vote on it, mostly because a professional army would likely increase spending for the Military and about the negative social impact of abolishing the proven Civil Service.

...

Here's an article about the military and the draft:

Austrian Army aims to sell over 500 tanks

()

The Austrian army is to put more than 500 tanks up for sale, it has emerged.

Social Democratic (SPÖ) Defence Minister Norbert Darabos announced today (Mon) that he has decided to reduce the federal army’s tank fleet by 578. The minister also said the army will sell 100 armoured howitzers.

Darabos explained his decision as a result of the "changed threats" which face Austria today. The minister explained it was unlikely that Austria – a neutral nation by constitution since 1955 – could be engaged in tank warfare in the foreseeable future.

The defence minister claimed that the amount the army will make from selling the tanks and vehicles was "not that important", adding that his "chief priority is lowering the army’s operating costs by 12 million Euros a year".

The Hungarian government has already shown interest in purchasing some of the tanks, according to reports.

Darabos also announced he wanted to reduce the army’s staff by 1,000 during the coming four years, mostly by not assigning new personnel when employees retire. The defence minister also said he will ask hundreds of the army’s current office workers to leave and start working for the finance ministry or the police.

The Austrian army currently consists of nearly 16,000 full-time solders and 9,200 civilian personnel such as secretaries and chefs.

Speaking about the federal army’s representation in federal capital Vienna, the minister revealed he planned to shut and sell seven barracks across the city. Darabos said: "I imagine we will earn 30 million Euros by selling those facilities."

The defence minister claimed all buildings up for sale soon were "excellently situated", adding that the army’s Viennese departments will soon be located in just one barrack.

These extensive cost-cutting measures follow months of heated debate between coalition partners SPÖ and the People’s Party (ÖVP) over the future of the Austrian army.

The SPÖ had vehemently defended the Austrian conscription system for decades, before Viennese SPÖ Mayor Michael Häupl suggested a referendum should be held over the issue.

Commentators said the statement was nothing but an attempt by Häupl to retain his party’s absolute majority in the city parliament since it came a week before residents of Vienna were set to vote. Around 49 per cent were enough for a majority in seats for the SPÖ in the Viennese election in 2005. The Social Democrats only received 44.24 per cent in the most recent city parliament election held on 10 October.

Public opinion agency Karmasin found earlier this year that 80 per cent of Austrians consider natural disaster protection to be the army’s top responsibility, while only 15 per cent named defence.

The number of people supporting the abolishment of the six-month army service is understood to be on the rise. In what is regarded as the expression of many people’s opinion, Häupl said: "The circumstances for Austria have changed dramatically. I also think that young men shouldn’t waste six months of their lives."

The influential Social Democrat said Austria would benefit as a whole if those currently called up by the army to serve for half a year would start to work or start studying at university right after finishing school.

Greens MP Peter Pilz branded the current system as a "money sink". The right-wing Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ) has also spoken out in support of a reform of the army. Pilz said he could imagine organising a referendum on the issue.

ÖVP Foreign Minister Michael Spindelegger suggested recently that the army should be allowed to pick the most-skilled young Austrians to serve the mandatory six-month service.

Around 46,000 Austrian men have to undergo two-day medical checks every year to find out whether they are fit enough for the conscription. More than 14,000 of the 25,800 who passed the series of checks opted to serve as Zivildiener in the so-called Zivildienst scheme last year.

Charity organisations and healthcare officials praise the alternative programme – in which the young men work in hospitals, retirement homes or for the Red Cross – as an essential support to their daily responsibilities, and warned from axing it as part of an possibly upcoming army reform.

Meanwhile, experts are at odds over whether a fully professional but smaller army would be more expensive than the current system. Some studies suggest the government would have to spend more money on the army if it abandoned the conscription model as soldiers are currently compensated with just around 300 Euros a month during their mandatory six-month duty.

The SPÖ-ÖVP coalition spends around 2.1 billion Euros a year – only 0.79 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) – on the army which currently participates in several international peacekeeping missions with around 1,200 soldiers.

Austria is just one of six of the European Union’s (EU) 27 member states which still have a conscription system. Sweden got rid of the model earlier this year, while the German government plans to reduce the federal army’s staff and stop calling up soldiers from 2011.

http://austrianindependent.com/news/Politics/2010-12-13/5626/Army_aims_to_sell_over_500_tanks


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: minionofmidas on December 14, 2010, 04:55:44 AM
"Keep only the draftees and sack all the professional soldiers" is presumably not an option?



Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on December 14, 2010, 05:24:06 AM
Conscription is a disgrace to
any free and democratic society. It's very authoritarian to just steal 6 months of someone's life like that.

I've had my experiences with this BS...and I've fought them until the very end in Germany to avoid service. Looks like it was successful, as it seems unlikely that people will be involuntarily called in any more, even if the actual abolition is in July.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Insula Dei on December 14, 2010, 08:00:57 AM
I'd probably abstain as I dislike the idea of a draft, but would be very concerned about the civil service disappearing.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on December 14, 2010, 08:05:01 AM
New poll out today by the Linzer Institut für Sozialforschung (1005 Austrians aged 16+ questioned in October and November):

Question: Do you think the Army draft is necessary and do you want to keep it ?

52% in favor (23% strongly favor, 29% somewhat favor)
47% opposed (21% strongly opposed, 26% somewhat opposed)

The biggest support was (unsurprisingly) in the states of Burgenland and Lower Austria with 56%, the lowest support in Upper Austria with 49%.

16-19 year olds: 42% support
50 years and older: 58% support

()

Do you support a mandatory civil service for everybody instead of the draft ?

72% support

More women than men support the draft (54% vs. 51%).

More women also support the mandatory civil service (73% vs. 70%).

()

http://www.public-opinion.at/wordpress/?p=313

http://www.salzburg.com/online/ticker/aktuell/Wehrpflicht-fuer-Haelfte-der-Oesterreicher-sinnvoll.html?article=eGMmOI8VdopLt6OwgkU8WH7JAqin1POXB8UvKXB&img=&text=&mode=


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on December 14, 2010, 08:05:42 AM
I like how the poll results for Salzburg, Tyrol and Vorarlberg exactly mirror my thoughts (50-50).

:P


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on December 14, 2010, 08:24:57 AM
If support for civil service (mandatory or not) is really that high, I think the government should include a question about it as well in the referendum.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on December 14, 2010, 08:49:23 AM
I'd probably abstain as I dislike the idea of a draft, but would be very concerned about the civil service disappearing.

Good to see you like slavery. That's not even hyperbole...it's slavery.


Imagine what kind of money I've paid for my legal representation. It's not funny.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on December 14, 2010, 08:53:47 AM
BTW: Has any country ever voted in a draft referendum ? And did it vote Yes ?


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on December 14, 2010, 08:58:23 AM
Women shouldn't be allowed to vote in the referendum. They don't have to pay lawyers 2000€ to avoid going into slavery.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Insula Dei on December 14, 2010, 09:04:32 AM
I'd probably abstain as I dislike the idea of a draft, but would be very concerned about the civil service disappearing.

Good to see you like slavery. That's not even hyperbole...it's slavery.


Imagine what kind of money I've paid for my legal representation. It's not funny.

As I said: I dislike the draft.

And as Tender said the civil service disappearing would be a little tragedy for organizations like the Red Cross.



Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on December 14, 2010, 09:06:52 AM
I don't care about those organizations. If they need more workers, then they need to pay market based wages that people will voluntarily agree to.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on December 14, 2010, 09:23:16 AM
Indeed, I have done some research and I´m now more leaning towards abolishing the draft and introduction of a voluntary civil service.

Why ?

Even though experts say that abolishing civil service would be bad for Red Cross etc., I have looked up some numbers today.

In Austria, the Red Cross employs 6.000 full-time workers and 60.000 voluntary workers. In 2009, voluntary workers increased by 6% compared with 2008.

Only 4000 Civil Servants are employed with the Red Cross, which is 6% of all people working there.

If the Civil Service is cut and the 4000 Civil Servants are not payed their 400 or so Euros each month anymore, the Red Cross could instead launch a big advertising campaign with this money to get more volunteers or paid workers.

As for the draft, I would be in favor of abolition if the costs would remain about the same as it is now, which would mean less active duty forces. Currently about 40.000-50.000 people are in the Austrian army, so I would favor a reduction to about 15.000 soldiers, with full pay and mainly for national disaster help. That would keep costs roughly where they are today.

I also strongly support Minister Darabos' (SPÖ) sale of unnecessary weapons, like the 500 tanks mentioned above.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on December 14, 2010, 09:27:21 AM
I'm glad Germany never considered the mandatory Civil Service as an alternative. I was afraid that might be the "compromise", but it appears Guttenberg did a great job at convincing the government he was right and that it was the right thing to do for everyone involved.

Shame I wasn't born a year or so later, though...I could have saved a lot of time and money.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: k-onmmunist on December 14, 2010, 09:34:02 AM
I would vote against. Conscription sucks.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: minionofmidas on December 14, 2010, 09:57:47 AM
Slaves weren't paid wages. And could be corporally punished.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on December 14, 2010, 10:06:45 AM
BTW: Has any country ever voted in a draft referendum ? And did it vote Yes ?

Referendums are for pussies anyway. In Germany, we've got our wannabe monarch as defense minister who simply decides to do it. :P


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on December 14, 2010, 10:13:38 AM
Slaves weren't paid wages. And could be corporally punished.

You're forced (if you don't have a good lawyer like I do) to perform
hard work against your will. That is a form of slavery.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on December 14, 2010, 10:19:34 AM
Slaves weren't paid wages. And could be corporally punished.

You're forced (if you don't have a good lawyer like I do) to perform
hard work against your will. That is a form of slavery.

Unless you become someone else's property it ain't slavery.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: minionofmidas on December 14, 2010, 10:42:57 AM
No hard work in the army for draftees. Nor on most Zivi jobs. The most you can argue it's a waste of time. But most people leaving school don't really know what to do anyways (hence why the FSJ/FÖJ has become so popular ever since fewer people get called up.)

It's not comparable in any way or form to slavery, at least as the west knew it - and I'm including serfdom here.
It's also rather insulting not just to those not many generations away from having been slaves, but also to draft veterans. Or former Zivis, might I add. :P


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on December 14, 2010, 10:58:18 AM
Well I'm glad you enjoyed your "waste of time". I'm happy I won't be subject to the humiliation of earning 2€/h for a job that I never wanted.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Scrooge on December 14, 2010, 02:57:32 PM
National service (which was military only, except for conscientious objectors) was abolished in the UK in the early 1960s. There have been
calls for its return ever since, though usually in the form of a civilian force.

More recently the government is considering forcing welfare claimants to work - without paying them a minimum wage, just their welfare benefit.

Is this slavery? It's clearly forced labour. Does slavery necessarily mean work without wages? In the Roman empire, some slaves WERE paid - in fact some of them earned enough to have slaves themselves. They were, however, not free to seek employment with another master.

Up till the 19th century, British workers only had limited freedom of movement - if they left their job without consent they could be charged with a criminal offence, rather than a mere breach of contract.

Of course millions of people are obliged to stay in jobs they hate, through lack of any attractive alternative. Is this slavery? It's certainly called that in extreme cases (eg domestic servants who are illegal immigrants)



Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on December 14, 2010, 03:10:15 PM
In both cases, whether as a condition for welfare benefits or simply having a job you hate....You're still free to refuse without fear of legal prosecution.

I know it's not practical....but it's a big big difference in principle.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on December 14, 2010, 03:55:41 PM
As the least sporty/athletic person I know, I would have been wasted on the Army if I had been subjected to National Service.  (That hasn't stopped me joining a military band though.)  For that reason, I think conscription is a bad idea per se.

A friend has dual British and Hungarian citizenship, and got served with his callup papers while living in Hungary.  He managed to get out of it by playing dumb throughout the interview and pretending he didn't know a word of Hungarian.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on December 15, 2010, 11:31:30 AM
To abolish. I oppose conscription.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on December 15, 2010, 11:36:06 AM
BTW: Has any country ever voted in a draft referendum ? And did it vote Yes ?

Canada did during WWII. Passed overwhelmingly everywhere except Quebec.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on December 16, 2010, 03:41:13 AM
New poll by OGM for "Kurier" newspaper:

()

Should the draft be abolished ?

54% YES (Men: 50%, Women: 58%)
41% NO (Men: 44%, Women: 38%)

If the draft is abolished, with what should it be replaced ?

67% Professional army
27% Volunteer army

Should there be a mandatory "Social Year" instead of the Civil Service ?

69% In Favor (Men: 79%, Women: 60%)
27% Opposed (Men: 19%, Women: 36%)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on December 16, 2010, 06:08:01 AM
Saying no to the draft and yes to the mandatory social year is the ultimate moderate hero position.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 16, 2010, 08:29:48 PM
Peace and love, man. And no reports or infractions for nobody.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: YL on December 17, 2010, 03:18:41 PM
I'd vote to abolish the draft.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 23, 2010, 06:19:19 PM
BTW: Has any country ever voted in a draft referendum ? And did it vote Yes ?

Canada did during WWII. Passed overwhelmingly everywhere except Quebec.

IIRC, conscription was never implemented because of the degree of Francophone opposition.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on December 24, 2010, 05:10:57 PM
Side fact:

My parents, who are both right-leaning voters, will vote to abolish the draft.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on December 24, 2010, 09:26:25 PM
BTW: Has any country ever voted in a draft referendum ? And did it vote Yes ?

Canada did during WWII. Passed overwhelmingly everywhere except Quebec.

IIRC, conscription was never implemented because of the degree of Francophone opposition.

It was, but only near the end of the war.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on January 15, 2011, 12:57:26 PM
Defense Minister Norbert Darabos (SPÖ) prefers the Swedish army model:

A professional army with a militia component, in which each soldier starts with a pay of 2500$ a month, 14 times a year. Each soldier would have to sign up for 8 years of service, for a total of 20.000 soldiers.

The Civil Service would be scrapped and a all-voluntary Social Year would be introduced instead. The SPÖ thinks 4000 people will volunteer each year because the starting wage would be about 1900$ a month, 14-times a year, which would be about 4 times more than what a Civil Servant now gets.

The ÖVP and FPÖ have already said that they strongly oppose these plans and that they are in favor of keeping the draft and the Civil Service.

SPÖ, Greens and BZÖ favor the SPÖ plan.

SPÖ, Greens, BZÖ have a 94-88 majority in the parliament, with 1 Independent (former BZÖ).

There's a new Gallup poll out today, in which Austrians would favor the professional army by 60-31 over the draft, if there were a referendum on the issue.

http://derstandard.at/1293370749550/Darabos-fuer-schwedisches-Modell


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on January 15, 2011, 01:00:09 PM
Any chance of the government breaking over this?

At any rate, congratluations for recognizing what the correct thing to do is....:)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on January 15, 2011, 01:07:35 PM
Any chance of the government breaking over this?

At any rate, congratluations for recognizing what the correct thing to do is....:)

Could be. The issue is very polarizing and important and Austrian coalitions have already fallen because of issues that were much less important -> see 2008.

Let's see what the party of "no" (ÖVP) does in the next months.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on January 15, 2011, 01:21:56 PM
For anyone who can read German (Franzl, Lewis etc.) here's a good article about the issue:

Weg mit der Wehrpflicht! Warum das Bundesheer völlig neu definiert gehört. (http://www.profil.at/articles/1102/560/286397/weg-wehrpflicht-warum-bundesheer)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 15, 2011, 01:34:09 PM
What the hell, they still have conscription in Austria ? :o

Horrendous. Abolish it immediately.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on January 15, 2011, 07:33:30 PM
What the hell, they still have conscription in Austria ? :o

Horrendous. Abolish it immediately.

We still do in Germany as well......until the 1st of July officially :)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on January 15, 2011, 07:37:49 PM
For anyone who can read German (Franzl, Lewis etc.) here's a good article about the issue:

Weg mit der Wehrpflicht! Warum das Bundesheer völlig neu definiert gehört. (http://www.profil.at/articles/1102/560/286397/weg-wehrpflicht-warum-bundesheer)

Good article, BTW.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 16, 2011, 06:10:21 AM
What the hell, they still have conscription in Austria ? :o

Horrendous. Abolish it immediately.

We still do in Germany as well......until the 1st of July officially :)

So you actually did your military service ? Well, congratulations. ;)

The two only good things Chirac has ever done were abolishing conscription and opposing the Irak war.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on January 16, 2011, 08:20:23 AM
No, Antonio....I have a good lawyer. I didn't do military service :)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 16, 2011, 08:43:12 AM
No, Antonio....I have a good lawyer. I didn't do military service :)

You dirty privileged... ;D

Seriously though, I would also probably have tried any possible way to escape it. ;)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on January 16, 2011, 08:45:46 AM
No, Antonio....I have a good lawyer. I didn't do military service :)

You dirty privileged... ;D

Seriously though, I would also probably have tried any possible way to escape it. ;)

Yeah it's pretty crazy, the way it works in Germany right now. Only about 50% of 18-year olds are declared "medically fit" to serve......and of those, only about 50% ever actually get a letter telling them to report for duty.

Unfortunately, I was unlucky on both :)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 16, 2011, 10:35:50 AM
No, Antonio....I have a good lawyer. I didn't do military service :)

You dirty privileged... ;D

Seriously though, I would also probably have tried any possible way to escape it. ;)

Yeah it's pretty crazy, the way it works in Germany right now. Only about 50% of 18-year olds are declared "medically fit" to serve......and of those, only about 50% ever actually get a letter telling them to report for duty.

Unfortunately, I was unlucky on both :)

What do you need to be "mentally fit" to serve in the military ? I thought officers prefered when their soldiers don't think too much. ;D


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on January 16, 2011, 12:29:17 PM
No, Antonio....I have a good lawyer. I didn't do military service :)

You dirty privileged... ;D

Seriously though, I would also probably have tried any possible way to escape it. ;)

Yeah it's pretty crazy, the way it works in Germany right now. Only about 50% of 18-year olds are declared "medically fit" to serve......and of those, only about 50% ever actually get a letter telling them to report for duty.

Unfortunately, I was unlucky on both :)

What do you need to be "mentally fit" to serve in the military ? I thought officers prefered when their soldiers don't think too much. ;D

Officers don't want loose cannons either (if you'll excuse the analogy).  If you're going to order someone to fly a helicopter somewhere you want to make sure the person receiving the orders is capable of carrying them out.  That takes training, skill and some sort of mental competence.  Repeat argument for tanks, artillery, drill, teamwork etc.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on January 16, 2011, 12:38:19 PM
No, Antonio....I have a good lawyer. I didn't do military service :)

You dirty privileged... ;D

Seriously though, I would also probably have tried any possible way to escape it. ;)

Yeah it's pretty crazy, the way it works in Germany right now. Only about 50% of 18-year olds are declared "medically fit" to serve......and of those, only about 50% ever actually get a letter telling them to report for duty.

Unfortunately, I was unlucky on both :)

What do you need to be "mentally fit" to serve in the military ? I thought officers prefered when their soldiers don't think too much. ;D

In Austria, about 15% of those drafted each year are determined "unfit" for service due to medical or psychlogical reasons, including me. That's why I had the luck to do neither service: military, nor civil service ... ;)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 16, 2011, 02:29:19 PM
No, Antonio....I have a good lawyer. I didn't do military service :)

You dirty privileged... ;D

Seriously though, I would also probably have tried any possible way to escape it. ;)

Yeah it's pretty crazy, the way it works in Germany right now. Only about 50% of 18-year olds are declared "medically fit" to serve......and of those, only about 50% ever actually get a letter telling them to report for duty.

Unfortunately, I was unlucky on both :)

What do you need to be "mentally fit" to serve in the military ? I thought officers prefered when their soldiers don't think too much. ;D

In Austria, about 15% of those drafted each year are determined "unfit" for service due to medical or psychlogical reasons, including me. That's why I had the luck to do neither service: military, nor civil service ... ;)

Do you take a test or something like that to be deemed unfit ? How does than work.

And @belgiansoc : It was supposed to be a joke. :P


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Insula Dei on January 16, 2011, 03:01:58 PM
Quote
And @belgiansoc : It was supposed to be a joke.

That's why I didn't react to it. You got me mixed up with andrewteale :P

No big deal, I sometimes also mix him up with myself and consequently am puzzled at what I wrote for a couple of instants. No idea why he has a Belgian avatar. Maybe this is an occasion for him to explain that. ;)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on January 16, 2011, 03:59:54 PM
Quote
And @belgiansoc : It was supposed to be a joke.

That's why I didn't react to it. You got me mixed up with andrewteale :P

No big deal, I sometimes also mix him up with myself and consequently am puzzled at what I wrote for a couple of instants. No idea why he has a Belgian avatar. Maybe this is an occasion for him to explain that. ;)

My foreign trips this year are to Flanders.  Leuven and Ostend in May/June, Brugge in November.  I have some friends on the Flemish quiz circuit.

Seems as good an excuse as any to declare myself Belgian.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on January 17, 2011, 01:31:28 AM
No, Antonio....I have a good lawyer. I didn't do military service :)

You dirty privileged... ;D

Seriously though, I would also probably have tried any possible way to escape it. ;)

Yeah it's pretty crazy, the way it works in Germany right now. Only about 50% of 18-year olds are declared "medically fit" to serve......and of those, only about 50% ever actually get a letter telling them to report for duty.

Unfortunately, I was unlucky on both :)

What do you need to be "mentally fit" to serve in the military ? I thought officers prefered when their soldiers don't think too much. ;D

In Austria, about 15% of those drafted each year are determined "unfit" for service due to medical or psychlogical reasons, including me. That's why I had the luck to do neither service: military, nor civil service ... ;)

Do you take a test or something like that to be deemed unfit ? How does than work.

Yeah, it's called the "Musterung", in which every 18-year old Austrian guy has to drive to the next military commando center, get rid of his clothes and is left only with either green or pink underpants. Then the medical and psychological tests start. I was ruled "unfit for service" because I have a congenital valvular heart defect (nothing serious though, but the military cannot risk taking people with heart problems, for legal reasons or so).


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Gustaf on January 17, 2011, 03:09:36 AM
Sounds like the Swedish system until we abolished mandatory military service recently. I wasn't particularly keen on it, since it wasn't a national defense anymore, so I got out. It was easy to avoid, really.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on January 30, 2011, 02:30:30 AM
There's a new OGM poll out today for the Kurier-newspaper about changing the draft system and the sacking of the top-General Entacher by Defense Minister Darabos.

Read more about it here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=107855.msg2796353#msg2796353

()

Austrians oppose by 28-53 the sacking of the popular Military General by Minister Darabos.

Only 27% of Austrians think that Darabos is "able to reform" the Military, 58% think he's unable.

45% of Austrians think that Defense Minister Darabos should step down, 34% oppose this.

68% of Austrians will take part in a referendum about ending the draft, 32% will not.

43% of Austrians now favor keeping the draft system, 49% are opposed.

47% of Austrians now favor a professional army, even if it costs the taxpayers more money than the current system. 45% of the people are opposed.

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/2068804.php


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on January 30, 2011, 02:35:24 AM
BTW, the lead of the abolition side was cut in half since a Kurier/OGM poll 1 month ago ...


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: minionofmidas on January 30, 2011, 09:20:14 AM
No, Antonio....I have a good lawyer. I didn't do military service :)

You dirty privileged... ;D

Seriously though, I would also probably have tried any possible way to escape it. ;)

Yeah it's pretty crazy, the way it works in Germany right now. Only about 50% of 18-year olds are declared "medically fit" to serve......and of those, only about 50% ever actually get a letter telling them to report for duty.

Unfortunately, I was unlucky on both :)

What do you need to be "mentally fit" to serve in the military ? I thought officers prefered when their soldiers don't think too much. ;D

In Austria, about 15% of those drafted each year are determined "unfit" for service due to medical or psychlogical reasons, including me. That's why I had the luck to do neither service: military, nor civil service ... ;)

Do you take a test or something like that to be deemed unfit ? How does than work.

Yeah, it's called the "Musterung", in which every 18-year old Austrian guy has to drive to the next military commando center, get rid of his clothes and is left only with either green or pink underpants. Then the medical and psychological tests start. I was ruled "unfit for service" because I have a congenital valvular heart defect (nothing serious though, but the military cannot risk taking people with heart problems, for legal reasons or so).
I don't think there's such a thing as a draft system that didn't have that. It was called the Physical Evaluation back when the US had a draft.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Nichlemn on January 30, 2011, 11:10:41 PM
Conscription is not cheaper unless your view of costs is limited solely to monetary taxes, since you are in effect taxing the conscripted of their time and labour. Raise everyone's taxes and you still tax people's time and labour, however you don't unduly burden a minority of the population and people's contributions are in the form of work that they choose to do.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on February 03, 2011, 02:53:07 PM
Uh-oh. The situation has now changed in favor of keeping the draft.

New Standard/Market poll out today:

56% Keep the current draft system
41% Abolish the draft and introduce a professional army

http://derstandard.at/1296696306438/Umfrage-56-Prozent-fuer-Beibehaltung-der-Wehrpflicht

Tomorrow, a no-confidence vote will take place against Defense Minister Darabos of the SPÖ.

Josef Pröll, ÖVP-leader and Vice-Chancellor, has said that ÖVP-MPs can vote freely if they support the Defense Minister or not ...

Should be fun !

:)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on February 04, 2011, 02:24:43 AM
Tomorrow, a no-confidence vote will take place against Defense Minister Darabos of the SPÖ.

Josef Pröll, ÖVP-leader and Vice-Chancellor, has said that ÖVP-MPs can vote freely if they support the Defense Minister or not ...

Should be fun !

:)

It seems that Pröll now got cold feet and said in a newspaper interview that Darabos "will remain Defense Minister" and that "the ÖVP will not vote against him".

He probably knows what would happen otherwise: New elections and the FPÖ coming out as the strongest party.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on February 04, 2011, 01:52:06 PM
Tomorrow, a no-confidence vote will take place against Defense Minister Darabos of the SPÖ.

Josef Pröll, ÖVP-leader and Vice-Chancellor, has said that ÖVP-MPs can vote freely if they support the Defense Minister or not ...

Should be fun !

:)

It seems that Pröll now got cold feet and said in a newspaper interview that Darabos "will remain Defense Minister" and that "the ÖVP will not vote against him".

He probably knows what would happen otherwise: New elections and the FPÖ coming out as the strongest party.

Darabos remains Defense Minister, all 3 no-confidence-votes by Greens/FPÖ/BZÖ were rejected with the votes of SPÖVP.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on February 07, 2011, 02:53:51 AM
New Lower Austria poll by GfK:

()

Abolish the draft ?

39% Yes
57% No

http://www.noen.at/news/politik/In-Niederoesterreich-57-fuer-Wehrpflicht;art150,28061

In a new Salzburg poll, 55% want the draft to continue.

98% of those polled also say that they see the mandatory Civil Service as extremely or somewhat important for the society.

If the draft and civil service is abolished, 42% of those polled favor a mandatory Social Year for men and women, 11% for men only and 41% support a voluntary Social Year with a pay of at least 1900$ a month.

http://www.salzburg.com/online/nachrichten/newsletter/SN-Umfrage-Zivildienst-absolut-unverzichtbar.html?article=eGMmOI8VdIvty3WgJfCeHHEWfwwqv6nlidsEhOz&img=&text=&mode=


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on February 07, 2011, 05:43:36 AM
98% like slave labor?

Why do so many Austrians hate freedom? ;)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on February 07, 2011, 05:52:53 AM
98% like slave labor?

Why do so many Austrians hate freedom? ;)

Because they think that other systems of professional armys will be much more expensive (see NATO countries), natural disaster relief more complicated and the social safety net more porous, so they favor the current system.

And there's probably also the "if I had to do it when I was young and it didn't kill me, the young people of today should have to do it as well"-mentality ... ;)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on February 07, 2011, 10:46:40 AM
And there's probably also the "if I had to do it when I was young and it didn't kill me, the young people of today should have to do it as well"-mentality ... ;)

You know...it's hard to be more freedom hating than that :)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on February 13, 2011, 01:52:11 AM
New Gallup/Ö24 poll:

47% favor the end of the draft
44% favor the draft system
  9% undecided (mostly Green voters)

Referendum:

52% Professional Army
48% Draft System

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Schon-74-sind-mit-Koalition-unzufrieden/17589730


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on February 25, 2011, 02:19:34 PM
Support for abolishing the draft is now significantly down in the accurate OGM/Kurier poll:

()

49% still favor a professional army, 46% the current draft.

But this is down from 54-41 in December and 49-43 in January.

58% of Austrians also favor a referendum on the issue, while 35% say the parties should decide.

67% also support Austria's neutrality, 24% not.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on February 25, 2011, 08:37:41 PM
Any idea when (if) such a referendum will be happening?


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on February 26, 2011, 01:12:26 AM
Any idea when (if) such a referendum will be happening?

I don't know really if there will really be a referendum or if the SPÖVP government will make some compromise about national security. June or July has been mentioned for a possible referendum date.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 26, 2011, 05:15:50 AM
Why did the opinion shift so much ?


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on February 27, 2011, 03:32:02 AM

The second post on this page might be a reason.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2011, 10:49:52 AM
98% like slave labor?

Why do so many Austrians hate freedom? ;)

Because they think that other systems of professional armys will be much more expensive (see NATO countries), natural disaster relief more complicated and the social safety net more porous, so they favor the current system.

And there's probably also the "if I had to do it when I was young and it didn't kill me, the young people of today should have to do it as well"-mentality ... ;)

This explains why some people oppose it, not why people initially supported it then changed their minds. :P


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on February 27, 2011, 11:12:36 AM
98% like slave labor?

Why do so many Austrians hate freedom? ;)

Because they think that other systems of professional armys will be much more expensive (see NATO countries), natural disaster relief more complicated and the social safety net more porous, so they favor the current system.

And there's probably also the "if I had to do it when I was young and it didn't kill me, the young people of today should have to do it as well"-mentality ... ;)

This explains why some people oppose it, not why people initially supported it then changed their minds. :P

People were not so much informed about the negatives of abolishing the draft first. Then they got more informed, got angered at how the Defense Minister handled the situation and changed their opinion.

Also the fact that people could increasingly fear that Austria's neutrality would be in danger when the draft is abolished and that that could lead to a NATO membership. Some SPÖ figures, like the Vienna Mayor, are in favor or strongly co-operating with surrounding NATO countries.

Maybe also Libya plays a role now, giving up the draft and switching over to another system during tough times in the North-African areas could be influencing people's opinions.

...

Anyway: Talks about a new Security Policy and the future of the draft will start between SPÖ and ÖVP next week. If they can't find common ground, a referendum is likely in June or July. If the referendum isn't really tight, then one party will be the big loser in the coalition for the next 2 years. Or the coalition breaks apart ... :P


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2011, 11:20:15 AM
Oh well, thanks. :)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on March 06, 2011, 03:39:24 AM
2 new polls out today:

Profil/Karmasin Motivforschung

45% Abolish the draft
44% Keep the draft
11% Undecided

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20110305_OTS0004/profil-nur-noch-knappe-mehrheit-fuer-abschaffung-der-wehrpflicht

Ö24/Gallup

49% Abolish the draft
42% Keep the draft
  9% Undecided

Referendum Question (including the allocation of undecided voters - which are primarily Green voters, Women and younger voters):

56% Abolish the draft
44% Keep the draft

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Eiszeit-fuer-Koalition/19450853#textBegin


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2011, 02:00:48 PM
New Kurier/OGM poll:

46% Keep the draft
42% Abolish the draft

Breakdown by party, gender and age:

()

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/2080439.php


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 10, 2011, 02:02:21 PM
>30 year olds and women want to keep the draft ? ???


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2011, 02:07:20 PM
>30 year olds and women want to keep the draft ? ???

No, "Ja" means keeping the draft.

Women say: 42% "Ja/Yes" - keep the draft and 46% say "Nein/No"

Under-30-olds: 28% want the draft to continue and 64% not.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 10, 2011, 02:37:52 PM
Oh, that makes a lot more sense now... :P

So the question asked is basically "do you want not to abolish the draft ?". ;D Looks quite retarded.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on March 10, 2011, 02:46:45 PM
Or: Do you want to keep the draft?



Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 10, 2011, 02:50:13 PM
But referendums are to make a change, and traditionally the option "yes" indicates change while "no" indicates continuity.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on March 11, 2011, 01:56:48 PM
But referendums are to make a change, and traditionally the option "yes" indicates change while "no" indicates continuity.

I don't think the question will be answered with "Yes" or "No" when a referendum takes place.

I think there will be 2 proposals and you can choose between them.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 12, 2011, 09:17:36 AM
Oh, so that just means the poll phrased the question stupidly. :P


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: RFQ on March 15, 2011, 10:32:23 PM
Times have changed and conscription is no longer necessary


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on March 22, 2011, 03:14:17 AM
New Market poll for the newspaper "Standard":

50%  (+9) Professional Army
45% (-11) Draft

Austrians were also asked if they support the EU, US and also a (not happening) Austrian intervention in Libya:

EU: 40% in favor, 40% oppose, 20% Don't care
USA: 35-40% in favor, 40-45% oppose, 20% Don't care
Austria: 16% in favor, 69% oppose, 15% Don't care

This graphics shows that especially young people support the EU & US decision to intervene in Libya, while old people are opposed:

()

Young people of course also do not want Austria to get involved in Libya.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on April 10, 2011, 12:16:55 AM
New ATV Austria Trend Poll:

56% Keep the Draft
38% Abolish the Draft/Create Professional Army
  6% Undecided

46% If the Draft is abolished, there should be a voluntary Social Year instead of the Civil Service
45% If the Draft is abolished, there should be a mandatory Social Year instead of the Civil Service
  6% If the Draft is abolished, the Civil Service should be abolished as well
  3% Undecided

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/1623359/file


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on May 09, 2011, 01:47:20 AM
2 new polls out showing 2 different results:

OGM for "Kurier"-newspaper:

48% Keep the Draft
42% Abolish the Draft

49% The issue should be decided in a referendum
40% The SPÖVP government should find a solution for the issue

51% The ÖVP Army Reform Plan is better
38% The SPÖ Army Reform Plan is better

http://kurier.at/nachrichten/2100282.php

Gallup for "Österreich"-newspaper:

()

42% Keep the Draft
49% Abolish the Draft

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeVP-Nein-zu-Heeres-Abstimmung/27130653


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 09, 2011, 02:48:11 AM
So it won't be abolished eventually...

I HATE REFERENDUMS.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on May 09, 2011, 02:56:55 AM
So it won't be abolished eventually...

I HATE REFERENDUMS.

The ÖVP with their new leader has recently said that they are "strongly opposed" to holding a referendum on the issue.

Therefore nothing changes.

In Austria we have a word for it: "Dahinwurschtln" (dragging along) :P


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on May 09, 2011, 05:16:44 AM
Glad we don't do referenda (federally at least) in Germany...


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on June 06, 2011, 03:24:35 AM
SPÖ Chancellor Werner Faymann now has new plans for a referendum:

Because the "Party of No" (ÖVP) blocks every move to hold a referendum this year, Faymann said that he favors a referendum on the draft on election day 2013, on the same day as the parliamentary election.

If the ÖVP also blocks this, he said the SPÖ might go "other ways" with FPÖ/BZÖ/Greens in 2013 and implement a referendum with the parliamentary votes of the opposition.

Don't know if this is a wise idea, because FPÖ+ÖVP+BZÖ currently have between 55% and 60% together and holding the referendum on election day 2013 will almost certainly result in a loss for the SPÖ - or better said a win for the draft system.

http://derstandard.at/1304553709306/Wehrpflicht-Faymann-erwaegt-Volksbefragung-gleichzeitig-mit-Wahl


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on June 06, 2011, 03:57:29 AM
How nice for the poor slaves still forced to serve until then.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: SPQR on June 06, 2011, 02:27:18 PM
Mandatory civil service,abolish that BS called draft.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on June 06, 2011, 02:55:05 PM
Mandatory civil service,abolish that BS called draft.

How about real freedom and nothing mandatory?


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: TheGlobalizer on June 06, 2011, 04:19:53 PM
Mandatory civil service,abolish that BS called draft.

How about real freedom and nothing mandatory?

This.  Mandatory activity = slavery to the elite.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Insula Dei on June 07, 2011, 02:01:11 PM
Mandatory civil service,abolish that BS called draft.

How about real freedom and nothing mandatory?

This.  Mandatory activity = slavery to the elite.

Personally I think that most draftees deserve it. Clever people don't get drafted.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on June 07, 2011, 02:08:24 PM
Personally I think that most draftees deserve it. Clever people don't get drafted.

So punish the people that are too dumb/honest/uninformed by hauling them out of their 2nd semester at university or similar unpleasent situations?

It's often said in jest, but serious question: Why do you hate freedom?


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Insula Dei on June 07, 2011, 02:13:07 PM
Personally I think that most draftees deserve it. Clever people don't get drafted.

So punish the people that are too dumb/honest/uninformed by hauling them out of their 2nd semester at university or similar unpleasent situations?

It's often said in jest, but serious question: Why do you hate freedom?

Well, clever people don't get stuck in the slums either, or so I am told.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on June 07, 2011, 02:15:20 PM
Well, clever people don't get stuck in the slums either, or so I am told.

Haha....I'd generally think you're joking, but I'm worried you might not be ;)

Seriously, there is a rather significant difference between what private individuals do with their lives and what horrors (such as slave-like conscription and civil service) governments inflict on young men.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: SPQR on June 07, 2011, 03:28:07 PM
Mandatory civil service,abolish that BS called draft.

How about real freedom and nothing mandatory?
One thing is to force people to go and train for the Army; another thing is to make them do mandatory community service in their spare time (thus not losing any uni time; this is what we had in Italy before the draft was removed).

Watching today's youth I am pretty convinced that civil service could only improve their mindset.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on June 07, 2011, 05:15:29 PM
Watching today's youth I am pretty convinced that civil service could only improve their mindset.

Typical. You think something is good for someone else and you want to force people to act according to your views. Is it such an awful thing to let people decide for themselves what's good for them without the state dictating it?


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: TheGlobalizer on June 08, 2011, 10:58:37 AM
Typical. You think something is good for someone else and you want to force people to act according to your views. Is it such an awful thing to let people decide for themselves what's good for them without the state dictating it?

Well, I think it would be good for women's morals if they wore burqas at all times.  Well, except for my 8 wives, when we're all in the harem room, in which case they shall all be naked.

It is, after all, for their own good.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: SPQR on June 09, 2011, 06:16:33 AM
Watching today's youth I am pretty convinced that civil service could only improve their mindset.

Typical. You think something is good for someone else and you want to force people to act according to your views. Is it such an awful thing to let people decide for themselves what's good for them without the state dictating it?

Yeah.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on June 12, 2011, 03:20:35 AM
New Gallup poll:

()

48% Abolish the Draft
44% Keep the Draft
  8% Undecided


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2011, 11:40:25 AM
So, summer is over and even though the SPÖ has said before the summer that they prefer a referendum on the draft after the 2013 elections because the ÖVP is the party of "No" and blocking everything, there's now new development in the case, with Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) arguing that he now wants the draft abolished by referendum "as soon as possible". Defense Minister Darabos (SPÖ) even wants to introduce measures within the army now to test abolishing it. The ÖVP is now going wild about this. Says the newspaper Standard:

Quote
Darabos probt das Ende der Wehrpflicht

Der Verteidigungsminister startet im Bundesheer nun auf eigene Faust Versuche zur Abschaffung der Wehrpflicht - Die Schwarzen drohen dem roten Minister mit "massiven Problemen", auch im Parlament

Wien - Zwar währt die Verhandlungspause zwischen Rot und Schwarz offiziell noch bis Anfang September - doch das hindert die Beteiligten nicht daran, sich zur Heeresreform bereits wieder tagtäglich harte Gefechte zu liefern. Am Montag drohte Verteidigungsminister Norbert Darabos (SPÖ) in Alpbach: Sollte es mit der ÖVP weiterhin keine Einigung zur Abschaffung der Wehrpflicht geben, werde er im Bundesheer diverse Projekte starten, um vorzuexerzieren, dass man durchaus ohne Grundwehrdiener auskommen könne. Darabos kann sich vorstellen, dies auf einzelne Dienststellen und Einheiten anzuwenden, dem Vernehmen nach auch auf den einen oder anderen Verband. Dazu erklärte der Minister, dass er das Bundesheer damit in Richtung "Professionalisierung" bewegen wolle, damit eine Umstellung auf ein Berufsheer möglich werde.

ÖVP-Klubchef Karlheinz Kopf antwortete umgehend: "Das Bundesheer und die Sicherheit der Menschen sind nicht das Privat-Versuchslabor für die irrwitzigen Ideen eines Verteidigungsministers." Sollte Darabos seine Ankündigung tatsächlich wahrmachen, werde "er sich mit der ÖVP und dem Parlament massive Probleme einhandeln". Denn: "Für die Abschaffung der Wehrpflicht gibt es keinen Konsens in dieser Regierung."

Zuvor hatten sich schon der rote Kanzler und sein schwarzer Vize einige Scharmützel geliefert. Werner Faymann (SPÖ), der im Frühjahr wegen des Koalitionsfriedens ein Plebiszit über die Wehrpflicht erst nach dem nächsten Wahltag 2013 in Aussicht gestellt hat, will nun doch "lieber früher als später" ein solches Referendum abhalten. Auch wünscht sich Faymann beim Katastrophenschutz "eine Professionalisierung" statt des von Michael Spindelegger (ÖVP) begehrten "Österreich-Dienstes".

Geht es nach den Schwarzen, sollen künftig aber sogar noch mehr junge Männer als bisher vom Staat eingezogen werden - indem zunächst einmal die Tauglichkeitskriterien neu definiert werden. Im Zuge des reformierten Präsenzdienstes sollen die Tauglichen dann zwischen Wehrdienst, Katastrophenschutzdienst und Zivildienst wählen. Als Ausbildungsdauer für die ersten beiden Dienste hat die ÖVP fünf Monate plus ein Monat für Übungen oder Einsätze bis zum 25. Lebensjahr vorgesehen.

http://derstandard.at/1313025429398/Wehrpflicht-Darabos-probt-das-Ende-der-Wehrpflicht


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 03, 2011, 03:07:24 AM
2 new polls out, one in favor of abolishing the draft (OGM) and one in favor of keeping it (Market):

()

Standard/Market:

50% Keep the draft
44% Abolish it

http://derstandard.at/1314652872379/Wehrpflicht-Nur-jeder-Dritte-glaubt-dass-Berufsheer-kommt


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 03, 2011, 04:14:20 PM
Abolish, though I would also want an escape clause for reinstatement in case of a major war.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 04, 2011, 04:23:45 AM
Gallup today has 58% for draft abolition.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2012, 12:02:25 AM
Edited the poll because the referendum will take place in January 2013 now.

The next polls should be interesting.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2012, 12:14:20 AM
The last poll about the issue was from July by Karmasin (sample = 500):

Quote
Umfragen: Mehrheit für Berufsheer

Egal, ob Volksabstimmung oder Volksbefragung, die inhaltlich unterschiedlichen Positionen der Koalitionspartner bleiben: SPÖ pro, ÖVP kontra Berufsheer. Die ÖVP ist sich ihrer Sache, wie der Vorstoß der Landeshauptleute gezeigt hat, offenbar sicher. Die Bevölkerung würde einem Berufsheer jedenfalls eine „Absage erteilen“, meinte Pröll. In der SPÖ glaubt man das Gegenteil.

Und hat die Mehrheit der Bevölkerung hinter sich – vorerst allerdings nur in Umfragen: Eine Karmasin-Befragung von 500 Personen im Juli etwa ergab, dass 56 Prozent der Österreicher ein Berufsheer bevorzugen würden. Für den Erhalt der Wehrpflicht sprachen sich nur 35 Prozent aus.

56% for a professional voluntary army
35% for retaining the current draft system

I think this will narrow until January ...


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2012, 12:30:59 AM
Here's a map of the systems in the EU + Switzerland:

()

Only Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece and Cyprus still have a draft.

And Switzerland.

The draft time is shortest in Denmark with 4 months and longest in Cyprus with 26 months.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: 後援会 on August 29, 2012, 12:41:22 AM
Why does Austria even need an army? I suppose, a small army would be useful for participating in UN/EU/NATO missions and for disaster relief and what not. But a drafted army? Is there any reason? At all?


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Zanas on August 29, 2012, 07:00:38 AM
I would guess this dates back to the days when Austria was just next to the Iron Curtain. Somehow they haven't found the time or motivation to withdraw it until now.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2012, 01:53:58 PM
Why does Austria even need an army? I suppose, a small army would be useful for participating in UN/EU/NATO missions and for disaster relief and what not. But a drafted army? Is there any reason? At all?

I guess it has to do with costs: A drafted army and a drafted civil service is cheap. Which is also the reason why ultimately I think that Austrians will vote to retain the draft system in January.

Everyone I've talked to recently had concerns that if the draft is abolished, it would also mean the end for the cheap civil servants that help out the Red Cross and nursing homes etc. and are a vital part of the social system.

If I remember correctly, support for the draft system increased in the polls when the abolition of the civil service was also brought up. It's a tough sell and the ÖVP will campaign hard to include the civil service question into the referendum text ...


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2012, 02:23:48 PM
First poll by "Gallup" for "Ö24" after the referendum date was announced shows a reallllllly tight race, just as I expected:

51% for professional voluntary army
49% for retaining the draft system

Sample = 400, conducted 28.8. and 29.8.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Volksbefragung-51-Prozent-fuer-Berufsheer/76929385

53% of women support the professional army, while 55% of men support the draft.

52% of Vienna voters support the professional army, while Lower Austria has 51% for the draft.

Styria and Carinthia voters are strongly for the draft.

65% of SPÖ voters support the professional army, while 64% of ÖVP voters support the draft.

And while the FPÖ leadership clearly support the draft, 51% of FPÖ voters support the professional army (this will change I guess, looks like a massive Bradley-effect to me).

Also:

Turnout in the referendum looks to be huge and parliamentary election-like: 75% of those polled say they will vote in the referendum, while only 10% say they won't. 14% are undecided.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Diouf on August 30, 2012, 01:43:15 PM
In Denmark very few actually go there without choosing it themselves. The intake that started in August 2011 included about 2100 people , and 96 % of them chose voluntarily to enter this 4-month military service. This high rate of volunteers certainly has something do with the economic crisis, so some will choose this if they can get a regular job. The salary is decent enough.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 02, 2012, 12:26:17 AM
In Denmark very few actually go there without choosing it themselves. The intake that started in August 2011 included about 2100 people , and 96 % of them chose voluntarily to enter this 4-month military service. This high rate of volunteers certainly has something do with the economic crisis, so some will choose this if they can get a regular job. The salary is decent enough.

How is the Danish system actually considered a "draft", when only 100 people are actually drafted and the rest is there voluntarily ? Out of 30.000 Danish men who reach the draftable age every year ?


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Diouf on September 02, 2012, 05:18:39 AM
How is the Danish system actually considered a "draft", when only 100 people are actually drafted and the rest is there voluntarily ? Out of 30.000 Danish men who reach the draftable age every year ?

There are two intakes a year, the other one is a bit bigger (2900 people in 2011), so around 200 people are actually drafted, but, as you say, still not a lot considering that there are 30.000-35.000 Danish men draftable every year.

Historically way fewer volunteered, in the 70's it was about fifty percent and as late as 2006, the rate of volunteers was "only" 76 %. So it's only in the last five years that the rate of volunteers have been 87 % or higher, and you could question how much of a draft it really is now. Apart from the financial crisis, other reasons for the high rate of volunteers are a reduction of the number of people needed (from 5660 in 2006 to 5067 in 2011) and a higher rate of women (3 % in 2006, 10 % in 2011). Women are not a part of the draft, so when a woman enters the military service, she fills a spot that would otherwise have been filled by a drafted man.

The centre-left government would like to suspend the draft and only take in volunteers, you can't abolish it without changing the constitution which is very difficult in Denmark, but the current agreement on defence includes three opposition parties (Liberals, Conservative People's Party, and Danish People's Party) who are not very keen to do that. The agreement runs until 2014, and it's considered very bad taste to brake these agreements, so changes probably will not happen until at the earliest 2014, but currently the government's supporting party The Red-Green Alliance are opposed to the plans as well so a suspension seems unlikely. Despite wanting to suspend the draft, the government will like to keep the day where mental, and health tests are made, and the different kinds of military service presented. It's at this day that you, as it is now, inform whether you want to join voluntarily or want to be included in the draft. Furthermore, the government would like to make it obligatory for women to attend this day as well; a proposal which is backed by the opposition parties.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Zanas on September 02, 2012, 08:25:32 AM
We have that day here in France, called the "Defence preparation calling day", it's kind of boring but allows to get some statistics about every 18-year-old, boys and girls, and see if some slipped through the whole scholar system without learning proper reading or writing (and there always are some too). We stopped drafting in 1996, one of the very few things Chirac is known positively for...


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 02, 2012, 11:26:20 AM
New Market poll shows a strong majority for keeping the draft:

61% draft
39% professional voluntary army

In the same poll in May, 62% supported a professional voluntary army and only 38% the draft.

http://derstandard.at/1345165913008/Mehrheit-glaubt-nicht-mehr-an-Wechsel-zu-einem-Berufsheer

Every time the end of the popular civil service comes up, support for the draft increases dramatically. I don't see how Austrians will vote to end the draft considering this ...


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on September 03, 2012, 09:13:17 AM
Freedom haters.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2012, 08:49:19 AM
The SPÖVP government has now officially agreed to hold the referendum on the future of the draft system on January 20, 2013.

The government has also agreed that there will be no single YES/NO question.

Instead the voters will have 2 simple questions on the ballot:

SPÖ-favored question:

"Sind Sie für die Einführung eines Berufsheeres und eines bezahlten freiwilligen Sozialjahres ?"

"Are you in favor of implementing a professional voluntary army and a paid voluntary social year ?"

ÖVP-favored question:

"Sind Sie für die Beibehaltung der allgemeinen Wehrpflicht und des Zivildienstes ?"

"Are you in favor of keeping the mandatory military draft and civil service ?"

http://derstandard.at/1345166494569/Regierung-einigt-sich-auf-Text-fuer-Volksbefragung-zur-Wehrpflicht

About 6.5 million Austrians aged 16+ will be eligible to vote.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2012, 12:30:22 AM
Here's an English article about the referendum:

Will Austrian conscription get marching orders?

()

Austria is to hold a referendum on whether to abolish its long tradition of compulsory military service for young men. But there’s little public or political consensus on the issue.

Austria's Defence Minister, Norbert Darabos, wants a professional army made up of well paid volunteers rather than poorly paid conscripts.

"The questions should be put: Professional army - yes or no. Retaining general conscription - yes or no. In my opinion that's sufficient," said Darabos.

But many disagree with the minister including most of the army's top brass. In fact, the chief of staff is in open conflict with the minister on the issue. Author and defence expert Conrad Seidl says the Bundesheer, as the army is called, is mostly happy with the status quo.

"The Bundesheer has a long tradition," says Seidl. "For over 50 years now they have had a conscript system, and a large part of the Austrian military is composed of reserves or, as we call them, militias."

Civic service

But the impact of the referendum will be felt beyond the military. In recent years more and more young people have chosen civic service as an alternative to military service. Charities, especially the ambulance services, have come to rely on those who choose this option. They don't want civic service thrown out with the military service bath water. Noemi Müller, the chairperson of Austrian Catholic Youth, opposes military service but says feelings are mixed about ending compulsory civic service as well.

"I think many of them would be grateful because they can study right after A levels and they won't lose a year," she says. "But some will also be sad because civic service is also a chance to do something for the Austrian people and give something back."

Austria has also come to rely on its army of conscripts in times of natural disaster. They're called in to rescue people from avalanches and flooded homes.

()

Only the beginning

A fierce political battle is raging over the issue, and the opposing camps are divided between left and right. The Social Democrats and Greens prefer the professional army option; the conservatives are flying the flag for conscription. Though there are many on both sides who are not in step with their leaders.

The one point most people agree on, is that if conscription is to be stood down in the upcoming referendum, some form of social work should continue. What people can't agree on is whether it should be compulsory or voluntary. The battle over conscription is just beginning. It promises to be the most divisive in Austria's recent political history.

http://www.dw.de/dw/article/0,,16225294,00.html


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2012, 11:47:08 AM
New Gallup poll:

50% keep draft
50% abolish draft

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120908_OTS0048/oesterreich-umfrage-zur-volksbefragung-befuerworter-und-gegner-der-wehrpflicht-gleichauf-5050

That poll is about what I think at the moment (I'll probably decide in the voting booth, because I'm also 50-50 right now) ... :P


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on September 09, 2012, 02:20:54 AM
New Gallup poll:

50% keep draft
50% abolish draft

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120908_OTS0048/oesterreich-umfrage-zur-volksbefragung-befuerworter-und-gegner-der-wehrpflicht-gleichauf-5050

That poll is about what I think at the moment (I'll probably decide in the voting booth, because I'm also 50-50 right now) ... :P

Cheap slave labour is attractive, hm?


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 15, 2012, 05:00:42 AM
New Profil poll shows a slight majority for the draft:

45-43 for the draft

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120915_OTS0002/profil-umfrage-mehrheit-gegen-abschaffung-der-wehrpflicht


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 16, 2012, 04:04:59 AM
New OGM poll for the "Kurier" shows a slight 46-40 majority for abolishing the draft:

()

Allthough, among the 41% who say they will "definitely go voting on January 20, 2013 and who already have a solid opinion on the issue", the draft leads by 51-49.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on September 18, 2012, 07:14:18 AM
That I find interesting. Austrians support tuition fees?


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2012, 01:13:46 PM
That I find interesting. Austrians support tuition fees?

Yes. There have always been huge margins in favor of tuition fees in past polls.

It's only students (and former students I guess) and Green voters and a small fringe in the SPÖ that supports it.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: danny on September 18, 2012, 03:59:23 PM
I would support abolishing it in Austria, here in Israel it is still necessary though.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Zanas on September 19, 2012, 03:51:32 AM
I would support abolishing it in Austria, here in Israel it is still necessary though.
I fail to see how it could be necessary in one country and abolishable in another, and how one could have geographically varying values and convictions, but maybe that's just me...


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on September 19, 2012, 04:47:29 AM
I would support abolishing it in Austria, here in Israel it is still necessary though.
I fail to see how it could be necessary in one country and abolishable in another, and how one could have geographically varying values and convictions, but maybe that's just me...

Simple enough -- Israel lies in a powder-keg region with uncertain alliances. There are terror attacks in both directions.

Austria, on the other hand, ...


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: danny on September 19, 2012, 06:29:10 AM
I would support abolishing it in Austria, here in Israel it is still necessary though.
I fail to see how it could be necessary in one country and abolishable in another, and how one could have geographically varying values and convictions, but maybe that's just me...

The two countries have very different circumstances. If Austria didn't have an army, nothing much would change. If Israel didn't have an army, they would quickly be invaded and destroyed.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Zanas on September 19, 2012, 09:26:12 AM
Did I say something about having or not an army ? That is totally irrelevant to what we're discussing, and I think you're doing this on purpose.

To get back on our topic, death penalty is not more justified in certain circumstances in certain countries. Either you support it, believe in it, and I don't see why you would let it be abolished in some cases, or you don't support it, and nothing justifies it.

I don't trust people with geometrically variable beliefs...


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 19, 2012, 02:08:41 PM
I would support abolishing it in Austria, here in Israel it is still necessary though.
I fail to see how it could be necessary in one country and abolishable in another, and how one could have geographically varying values and convictions, but maybe that's just me...

The two countries have very different circumstances. If Austria didn't have an army, nothing much would change. If Israel didn't have an army, they would quickly be invaded and destroyed.

Indeed. We could outsource our defense to Germany, so they can take care of us in case of war.

There is an old joke regarding this:

In a bar, the Austrian and German defense ministers are debating what to do in case of war between the 2 countries. Says the German defense minister: "What would you do if we attack you ?"

Answer from the Austrian defense minister: "We would summon every man between 18 and 60, fully arm them and throw everything against you what we have, even if we are less numerous than you are and fight until the last man !"

After this, the Austrian defense minister asks the same: "What would you do if we attack Germany ?"

German defense minister: "I don't really know. The police station in Bad Reichenhall is responsible for such a scenario."

:P


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: danny on September 19, 2012, 04:21:49 PM
Did I say something about having or not an army ? That is totally irrelevant to what we're discussing, and I think you're doing this on purpose.

To get back on our topic, death penalty is not more justified in certain circumstances in certain countries. Either you support it, believe in it, and I don't see why you would let it be abolished in some cases, or you don't support it, and nothing justifies it.


In a utopian world There would be no armies at all, much less a draft. However, beliefs must fit in with reality, and in Israel's case it is necessary to have a large percent of its population go to the army in order to survive.

I don't trust people with geometrically variable beliefs...

I think a bigger problem is with people who don't let facts get in the way of their ideology.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 20, 2012, 12:14:18 AM
I agree with Danny that Israel is better off with a drafted army, considering the threats around it (even though I guess it wouldn't have much problems either to draft voluntary man/women to defend the country if it introduces a professional army).

On the other hand, I'm leaning more towards ending the draft here in Austria in Jan. once again.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 22, 2012, 12:01:11 PM
A few more draft-related polls out today:

Gallup for Ö24:

46% for the draft
46% against the draft

78% of those polled say they will vote in the January referendum.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120922_OTS0054/spoe-verliert-fpoe-gewinnt-in-neuer-gallup-oesterreich-umfrage

Karmasin for Profil:

How do you think Austrians will vote in January ?

49% - Austrians will vote to keep the draft
38% - Austrians will vote to abolish the draft

What do you think is the most important job for the Austrian Military ?

71% to help when there are natural catastrophes
14% to keep the border safe
10% to keep the country safe militarily

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20120922_OTS0009/profil-umfrage-mehrheit-glaubt-dass-wehrpflicht-bleibt


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 22, 2012, 01:13:54 PM
A new poll in Tirol shows that the state overwhelmingly favors keeping the draft:

53% keep the draft
35% against the draft
  6% Austria doesn't need an army at all
  6% undecided

Men back the draft by 55-33 and women by 51-37.

69% of FPÖ-voters as well as 59% of ÖVP and Dinkhauser voters support the draft.

A plurality of 49-43 of SPÖ voters also favor the draft.

Only Green voters oppose it 53-34.

In case the draft is abolished, Tyrolians want:

42% create a MANDATORY social year for both MEN and WOMEN
10% create a MANDATORY social year for MEN only
38% create a VOLUNTARY social year with good payment

45% of men and 41% of women want the MANDATORY social year for both MEN and WOMEN.

http://www.tt.com/Nachrichten/5446560-2/mehrheit-f%C3%BCr-die-wehrpflicht.csp


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 23, 2012, 11:38:56 AM
A new Market poll shows a majority of 53% for the professional army.

The Market polls are really bouncing around a lot: Just a month ago, the draft led with over 60%, but in May the professional army was also ahead, just like now.

http://derstandard.at/1348283738343/90-Prozent-wollen-an-Wehrpflicht-Volksbefragung-teilnehmen

At least there's good news from the turnout front: The poll finds that 58% of those polled say that they will "definitely" vote on Jan. 20, while another 32% say they are "likely" to vote. Just 10% say they are unlikely to vote. Which means "real" turnout between 70-80% is possible (some of the "likely" voters will stay at home).


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 24, 2012, 08:21:18 AM
New "Format" poll about what to do if the draft and mandatory civil service fails in the referendum:

()

  9% want a mandatory civil service for MEN only
49% want a mandatory civil service for MEN & WOMEN

40% want a voluntary civil service

  2% say that the civil service is not needed at all

Interesting also that 60% of women favor some kind of mandatory civil service, while only 56% of men say so. Even though more men than women also want women included in a mandatory civil service (52-46). More women on the other hand want a mandatory men-only civil service (14-4).


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 28, 2012, 09:16:41 AM
ATV Austria Trend:

39% for professional army
37% for retaining the draft
24% undecided

Turnout: 40% definitely vote, 35% probably vote, 14% probably not vote, 9% definitely not vote.

SPÖ/Green voters are more likely vote vote than Frank Stronach voters. ÖVP/FPÖ voters are about average.

Among the 40% who say they will definitely vote, the draft leads by 48-46 though.

Among the 35% who say they will probably vote, the professional army leads by 46-40.

By party:

SPÖ: 54-36 professional army
ÖVP: 63-18 draft
FPÖ: 41-38 professional army
BZÖ: 42-36 draft
Greens: 52-21 professional army
Stronach: 39-34 professional army
Others: 40-17 professional army

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/2894800/file


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on September 28, 2012, 09:18:24 AM
Why are the fascists against slavery? ;)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 28, 2012, 09:24:52 AM
Why are the fascists against slavery? ;)

Because they are the Freedom Party of Austria ... :P


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 28, 2012, 09:30:48 AM
Among the 40% who say they will definitely vote, the draft leads by 48-46 though.

Among the 35% who say they will probably vote, the professional army leads by 46-40.

Anyway, considering this, the result among the 75% who say they are likely to vote is:

46% professional army
44% draft

The number of undecideds here (10%) compared to the original question (24%) is pushed up by a HUGE undecided share among unlikely voters.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on September 30, 2012, 12:25:12 AM
Referendum remains tight:

51-49 for the draft now according to Gallup

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Mehrheit-fuer-Wehr-Pflicht/80166330


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on October 06, 2012, 12:21:37 AM
Salzburg Governor Gabriele Burgstaller from the Social Democrats has recently been attacked for saying "young men benefit from a few months in the military", with the news media running headlines like "Gov. Burgstaller from the SPÖ backs the draft".

()

The SPÖ party line is to abolish the draft. But yesterday she clarified her comments and said "she's still undecided about how to vote in the January referendum", but that "she clearly remains in favor of retaining the Civil Service".

I think she's secretly clearly in favor of the draft.

Burgstaller is more conservative than the average SPÖ folks and also supports tuition fees for universities, something that is contrary to the SPÖ-party line.  But maybe that's the reason why the SPÖ has around 40% in Salzburg state elections, compared to only 26-29% on the national level, because Burgstaller is also attracting many ÖVP- and FPÖ-voters. She is probably what would be described as a "Blue Dog Democrat" in the Southern US.

Also, Salzburg City mayor Heinz Schaden (also from the SPÖ) is backing the draft system.

And: The Salzburg state government (SPÖ-ÖVP) is the only government to send out a brochure that explains the positions on both issues (keeping or abolishing the draft), which is similar to what happens in Switzerland before each referendum.

http://derstandard.at/1348285168931/Bundesheer-Burgstaller-an-sachlicher-Debatte-interessiert


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on October 06, 2012, 12:35:37 AM
Some are speculating that Burgstaller is already planning for the Presidential election in 2016 against the powerful Lower Austrian governor Erwin Pröll (ÖVP).

The Salzburg state election will be held in 2014 and if she wins for a 3rd time, after 2004 and 2009, she could give up her governor post in 2015 so that her deputy David Brenner takes over and plan for 2016.

David Brenner (also from the SPÖ) is currently quite popular and would become a very young governor (aged 44 in 2015), the youngest in all 9 states:

()


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on October 06, 2012, 01:38:32 AM
ATV Austria Trend:

39% for professional army
37% for retaining the draft
24% undecided

Turnout: 40% definitely vote, 35% probably vote, 14% probably not vote, 9% definitely not vote.

SPÖ/Green voters are more likely vote vote than Frank Stronach voters. ÖVP/FPÖ voters are about average.

Among the 40% who say they will definitely vote, the draft leads by 48-46 though.

Among the 35% who say they will probably vote, the professional army leads by 46-40.

By party:

SPÖ: 54-36 professional army
ÖVP: 63-18 draft
FPÖ: 41-38 professional army
BZÖ: 42-36 draft
Greens: 52-21 professional army
Stronach: 39-34 professional army
Others: 40-17 professional army

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/2894800/file

aren't BZO and Stronach officially against conscription?  or is wikipedia lying to me again?


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on October 06, 2012, 04:27:04 AM
Salzburg Governor Gabriele Burgstaller from the Social Democrats has recently been attacked for saying "young men benefit from a few months in the military", with the news media running headlines like "Gov. Burgstaller from the SPÖ backs the draft".

()

The SPÖ party line is to abolish the draft. But yesterday she clarified her comments and said "she's still undecided about how to vote in the January referendum", but that "she clearly remains in favor of retaining the Civil Service".

I think she's secretly clearly in favor of the draft.

Burgstaller is more conservative than the average SPÖ folks and also supports tuition fees for universities, something that is contrary to the SPÖ-party line.  But maybe that's the reason why the SPÖ has around 40% in Salzburg state elections, compared to only 26-29% on the national level, because Burgstaller is also attracting many ÖVP- and FPÖ-voters. She is probably what would be described as a "Blue Dog Democrat" in the Southern US.

Also, Salzburg City mayor Heinz Schaden (also from the SPÖ) is backing the draft system.

And: The Salzburg state government (SPÖ-ÖVP) is the only government to send out a brochure that explains the positions on both issues (keeping or abolishing the draft), which is similar to what happens in Switzerland before each referendum.

http://derstandard.at/1348285168931/Bundesheer-Burgstaller-an-sachlicher-Debatte-interessiert

Sexism doesn't only work one way ...


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on October 06, 2012, 11:16:28 AM
ATV Austria Trend:

39% for professional army
37% for retaining the draft
24% undecided

Turnout: 40% definitely vote, 35% probably vote, 14% probably not vote, 9% definitely not vote.

SPÖ/Green voters are more likely vote vote than Frank Stronach voters. ÖVP/FPÖ voters are about average.

Among the 40% who say they will definitely vote, the draft leads by 48-46 though.

Among the 35% who say they will probably vote, the professional army leads by 46-40.

By party:

SPÖ: 54-36 professional army
ÖVP: 63-18 draft
FPÖ: 41-38 professional army
BZÖ: 42-36 draft
Greens: 52-21 professional army
Stronach: 39-34 professional army
Others: 40-17 professional army

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/2894800/file

aren't BZO and Stronach officially against conscription?

Yes, but that doesn't mean all their voters have to vote "No" on the draft ...


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on October 06, 2012, 11:28:08 AM
New Gallup poll:

52-48 for the draft

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121006_OTS0056/oesterreich-umfrage-keine-mehrheit-mehr-fuer-rot-schwarze-koalition


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on October 06, 2012, 02:28:42 PM
ATV Austria Trend:

39% for professional army
37% for retaining the draft
24% undecided

Turnout: 40% definitely vote, 35% probably vote, 14% probably not vote, 9% definitely not vote.

SPÖ/Green voters are more likely vote vote than Frank Stronach voters. ÖVP/FPÖ voters are about average.

Among the 40% who say they will definitely vote, the draft leads by 48-46 though.

Among the 35% who say they will probably vote, the professional army leads by 46-40.

By party:

SPÖ: 54-36 professional army
ÖVP: 63-18 draft
FPÖ: 41-38 professional army
BZÖ: 42-36 draft
Greens: 52-21 professional army
Stronach: 39-34 professional army
Others: 40-17 professional army

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/2894800/file

aren't BZO and Stronach officially against conscription?

Yes, but that doesn't mean all their voters have to vote "No" on the draft ...
Yeah, I just expected there to be some correlation.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Diouf on October 08, 2012, 11:21:37 AM
Today the Danish government proposed to suspend the draft as a part of a 15 % cut in defense spending. But as I wrote earlier in the thread, the current agreement on defence, which runs until 2014, includes the Liberals, the Conservatives, and the Danish People's Party. The two former agree with the scope of the cuts while the latter prefers cuts not to exceed 10-11 % but all three opposition parties agree to oppose a suspension of the draft. This means that the suspension won't happen. The Liberal Alliance supports suspending the draft while the Red-Green Alliance is opposed to it but neither party is a part of the defence agreement so currently their opinions mean little.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Zanas on October 08, 2012, 05:11:06 PM
Why on earth is the Red-Green Alliance in favor of the draft ? O_o


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 08, 2012, 05:17:34 PM
I'd vote against. Unless manpower is severely stretched without a draft, I prefer professional armed forces.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Diouf on October 09, 2012, 02:09:24 AM
Why on earth is the Red-Green Alliance in favor of the draft ? O_o

They think the army should only consists of draftees because the alternative, a professional army, is worse. Their spokesman on the subject said that "we have seen plenty of professional soldiers around the world with strange attitudes towards human rights and those they are fighting against". They believe that the draft secures a diverse composition of the military which enhances internal scrutiny and common sense.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Zanas on October 09, 2012, 04:43:21 PM
Well I'll be damned...


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: danny on October 09, 2012, 05:04:22 PM
Why on earth is the Red-Green Alliance in favor of the draft ? O_o

They think the army should only consists of draftees because the alternative, a professional army, is worse. Their spokesman on the subject said that "we have seen plenty of professional soldiers around the world with strange attitudes towards human rights and those they are fighting against". They believe that the draft secures a diverse composition of the military which enhances internal scrutiny and common sense.

I wonder if this can be seen as an endorsement of the Israeli army and its human rights attitudes since that is a draftee army;)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on October 20, 2012, 11:33:52 AM
Austrians are now lining up to support the draft in huge numbers (as I expected):

GALLUP/Ö24:

58% draft
42% professional army

Retired people and voters in the western states are most in favor of keeping the draft.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121020_OTS0047/oesterreich-erstmals-klare-mehrheit-fuer-wehrpflicht

Gallup has previously shown the referendum within 2%, so this is big news ...


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on October 27, 2012, 11:07:02 AM
Gallup again shows the draft leading 58-42 this week:

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/58-Prozent-sind-fuer-die-Wehrpflicht/83136292

Projected turnout: 77%


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on October 28, 2012, 09:32:55 AM
New OGM/Kurier poll:

()

Professional army leads 46-44, but that's down from 46-40 in September.

Among the 70% which have already made up their mind, the draft leads 54-44 (up from 51-49 in September).

About 75% (+2) want to vote in the referendum, 18% not and 7% are undecided.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on November 11, 2012, 06:49:09 AM
New Gallup/Ö24 poll:

()

56.5% keeping the draft
43.5% professional army

Especially women (61-39) and old people (62-38) are in favor of keeping the draft.

Young voters below the age of 30 back the professional army with 54-46.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-SPOe-kriselt-Frank-lacht/84647217


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: GMantis on November 15, 2012, 10:11:55 AM
What is the maximum age up to which one is liable for conscription?


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on November 15, 2012, 10:17:25 AM
What is the maximum age up to which one is liable for conscription?

German wikipedia says 35.

Which is rather high...was 25 here until abolition.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Benj on November 15, 2012, 10:22:48 AM
People who will never be drafted favor the draft... Shocking.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on November 15, 2012, 10:40:31 AM
People who will never be drafted favor the draft... Shocking.

Or in the case of old people (the men) have already been drafted and who say: "If I had to do it and it didn't kill me, the young people of today should do it as well, because they will learn from it."


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on November 15, 2012, 10:42:30 AM
People who will never be drafted favor the draft... Shocking.

Or in the case of old people (the men) have already been drafted and who say: "If I had to do it and it didn't kill me, the young people of today should do it as well, because they will learn from it."

That's great logic, of course.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: mubar on November 15, 2012, 11:37:15 AM
People who will never be drafted favor the draft... Shocking.

Or in the case of old people (the men) have already been drafted and who say: "If I had to do it and it didn't kill me, the young people of today should do it as well, because they will learn from it."

Well, this is basically my attitude also.

This last poll is actually quite surprising, because usually it seems to be the men who are more in favor of keeping the draft (or installing the draft in countries with none).

That's also so in Finland. For example the last year's poll (by Taloustutkimus)  found out that 82% of Finns support keeping the draft, while 16% would prefer abolishing it and replacing it with something else. Of men 84% were in favor and of women 80%. There was, though, a somewhat higher amount of younger people (18-34 years) who want to abolish the draft, but even in that age group 72% were in favor. It's doubtful that the opposition to draft would be significantly higher among young men than among general population in Austria either.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on November 15, 2012, 11:44:23 AM
People who will never be drafted favor the draft... Shocking.

Or in the case of old people (the men) have already been drafted and who say: "If I had to do it and it didn't kill me, the young people of today should do it as well, because they will learn from it."

Well, this is basically my attitude also.

This last poll is actually quite surprising, because usually it seems to be the men who are more in favor of keeping the draft (or installing the draft in countries with none).

That's also so in Finland. For example the last year's poll (by Taloustutkimus)  found out that 82% of Finns support keeping the draft, while 16% would prefer abolishing it and replacing it with something else. Of men 84% were in favor and of women 80%. There was, though, a somewhat higher amount of younger people (18-34 years) who want to abolish the draft, but even in that age group 72% were in favor.

What's the reason for the high support of the draft ? Russia being nearby, or the fact that the system works just fine in Finland (does it) ?

It's doubtful that the opposition to draft would be significantly higher among young men than among general population in Austria either.

The official referendum exit poll will shed more light on this ...


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: mubar on November 15, 2012, 12:34:24 PM

What's the reason for the high support of the draft ? Russia being nearby, or the fact that the system works just fine in Finland (does it) ?


Probably the both, but geography is the biggest reason. It is simply seen as a necessity. If the draft were to be replaced with a voluntary army, people fear this would lead to smaller reserves, and this would be problematic for a country with such a small population inhabiting such a big land area and with a massive eastern neighbor. Switching to a fully professional army is even less attractive for Finns, since this is thought to mean nearer ties with Nato and to be a violation of the traditional policy of neutrality, in addition to being perceived as vaguely threatening Russia. But yes, the common opinion is that system works just fine as well... most young men appear to have no problem completing their military service and civil service is always an option, so there doesn't seem to be a need of change.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on November 16, 2012, 03:27:33 PM
New Market poll for the "Standard":

52% draft
47% professional army

What do you think the outcome of the referendum will be like ?

65% say people will vote to keep the draft
34% say people will vote to abolish the draft

Projected turnout:

51% will definitely vote
37% will likely vote
12% are unlikely to vote

http://derstandard.at/1350261636999/Keine-stabile-Mehrheit-fuer-Wehrpflicht

A new Spectra poll takes a slightly different approach:

90% of Austrians polled have heard/read that there will be a draft referendum in 2 months.

92% of men, 87% of women, 82% of younger voters and 92% each of middle-aged and old people have heard/read about it.

72% of the people polled are also aware that if the draft is rejected in the referendum, the mandatory civil service is also abolished. 28% didn't know it.

66% of the people polled also say that the possible end of the civil service will mean PROBLEMS for institutions like the Red Cross, hospitals, retirement homes etc. - while only 13% say there will be no problems.

Spectra then informed one half of the polling sample with detailed information about the 2 models from the SPÖ (wants to abolish the draft) and the ÖVP (wants to keep the draft) and then asked them how they'd vote, while NOT informing the other half of the sample and also asked how they'd vote:

INFORMED half of the sample:

32% for the draft model
29% for the professional army model
26% undecided
13% wouldn't vote in the referendum

UNINFORMED half of the sample:

45% for the draft model
19% for the professional army model
27% undecided
  9% wouldn't vote in the referendum

http://www1.spectra.at/cms/index.php?eID=tx_mm_bccmsbase_zip&id=42835660850a6a11670b04

I find it interesting that in both polls, about 87-90% of people say they are likely to vote in the referendum. I think the actual turnout will be much lower, because a big share of those who say they are "likely to vote" will probably stay at home. So, more like 70-75% turnout, which would also not be bad for a referendum.

Also, I find it interesting too that more people say they are staying at home when they are informed about the 2 models ... Shouldn't it be the opposite ?


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on November 17, 2012, 12:49:35 PM
New "Profil" poll:

52% will vote to keep the draft
37% will vote to abolish it

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20121117_OTS0007/profil-umfrage-52-der-oesterreicher-fuer-wehrpflicht


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on November 20, 2012, 01:59:05 PM
The draft is strongly favored in my home state of Salzburg, according to a new poll by IGF (even top SPÖ-politicians like the Salzburg City Mayor favor the draft):

()

63% draft
37% professional army

Projected January draft-referendum turnout in the State of Salzburg:

()

74% will vote
17% will not vote
  9% undecided

http://www.salzburger-fenster.at/redaktion/aktuelle_berichte/sf_umfrage_so_steht_es_im_land_spoe_38_oevp_37_fpoe_12_gruene_10_art1992/


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on November 22, 2012, 01:38:23 AM
The BMI (Interior Ministry) has issued a 60-page guide about the organisation of the referendum.

Like in every other election here, every Austrian citizen aged 16+ will be automatically eligible to vote on Jan. 20.

The exact number of eligible voters will be known by December 19, when the Election Commission releases the numbers.

It also says that every eligible voter has to receive a election information card with their precinct on it, at least 3 days ahead of the referendum.

Voting on election day will open at 8am and close at 5pm.

There will be about 15.000 polling stations for about 6.350.000 eligible voters, so about 450 voters per polling station.

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/volksbefragung/files/Leitfaden_Volksbefragung2013_Gesamt.pdf


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: justfollowingtheelections on November 22, 2012, 01:49:12 AM
First of all, wtf does Austria need an army for?

Second, an army of draftees would exhibit the same "strange" behaviors an army of civilians would exhibit.  The only way to avoid that is to hire only college graduates who pass rigorous psychological tests (the same is true for the police).

Third, would women still be in favor of the draft if they also had to spend 6 months of their life in the army?






Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Franzl on November 22, 2012, 03:57:29 AM
First of all, wtf does Austria need an army for?

Second, an army of draftees would exhibit the same "strange" behaviors an army of civilians would exhibit.  The only way to avoid that is to hire only college graduates who pass rigorous psychological tests (the same is true for the police).

Third, would women still be in favor of the draft if they also had to spend 6 months of their life in the army?

In reality, it's less about the army than that the Austrians want to keep their (almost) free slave labor in the "civil service".

We had the same debate here. I'm just glad we don't do referenda here, or we might still have conscription here...


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on November 22, 2012, 02:21:00 PM
First of all, wtf does Austria need an army for?

For natural disaster help for example.

Or to escort US fighter jets from Germany to Italy for example when they enter the Austrian airspace, so the Military can then publish a report that says: "We escorted a US fighter jet from the German border to the Italian border because we are a neutral country." And then the media says: "Wow, a US fighter was flying above Austria and the (T)Eurofighters escorted them. Eurofighters ? They were very costly, and bought by a corrupt government with corrupt deals etc.etc.etc. They suck!" And so on ...

And because Austria has it's military deployed on the Golan as part of the UN missions there and in Bosnia and Kosovo.

Second, an army of draftees would exhibit the same "strange" behaviors an army of civilians would exhibit.  The only way to avoid that is to hire only college graduates who pass rigorous psychological tests (the same is true for the police).

Not exactly. Some experts think a professional voluntary army would draw the hard-right-wingers and Nazis into the military by much bigger numbers than now, because they get paid pretty well, while a drafted army is more like a representation of the general public. At least that's what happened in Belgium, I've read somewhere: Either they don't get enough volunteers or a lot of right-wingers sign up for the Military service.

Third, would women still be in favor of the draft if they also had to spend 6 months of their life in the army?

Good question. But the referendum isn't only about the draft, but the Civil Service as well. And previous polls have shown that Austrian women are as likely as men to support a MANDATORY SOCIAL CILVIL SERVICE YEAR for both MEN & WOMEN. So, the Austrian women probably think more like this: "If it takes a mandatory social year for us too to keep up the current quality of the social services (Red Cross, Retirement homes, Caritas etc.), then we wouldn't mind being drafted as well, because change suxx and is probably more expensive than before ...)


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on November 23, 2012, 01:19:29 AM
The BMI (Interior Ministry) has issued a 60-page guide about the organisation of the referendum.

Like in every other election here, every Austrian citizen aged 16+ will be automatically eligible to vote on Jan. 20.

The exact number of eligible voters will be known by December 19, when the Election Commission releases the numbers.

It also says that every eligible voter has to receive a election information card with their precinct on it, at least 3 days ahead of the referendum.

Voting on election day will open at 8am and close at 5pm.

There will be about 15.000 polling stations for about 6.350.000 eligible voters, so about 450 voters per polling station.

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/volksbefragung/files/Leitfaden_Volksbefragung2013_Gesamt.pdf

Also, this is the first election/referendum in which the new absentee ballot law takes effect:

From this election on, absentee ballots will only be counted if they arrive at the district election commission by Sunday @ 5pm, when the regular polling stations close.

In elections until now, it was possible that the absentee ballots were counted when they arrived 8 days later than the official voting day.

Even though there was no abuse known in the past, the SPÖVP coalition decided that they should reform the procedure because people could actually wait for the election day result and vote absentee based on the results. This can now be ruled out.

Also, the final number of absentee applications will be published by the Election Commission on Jan. 19, one day ahead of the referendum, because Austrians can apply for absentee ballots until 2 days before the referendum/election.


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on November 23, 2012, 03:38:07 AM
There was a mock election at the "Akademisches Gymnasium Salzburg" (Academic High School) in the City of Salzburg recently, in which all the students heard arguments from Salzburg City Mayor Heinz Schaden (SPÖ) and former Austrian Defense Minister in the early 80s, Friedhelm Frischenschlager (FPÖ). It should be noted that Schaden, contrary to the federal SPÖ, backs the draft, while Frischenschlager, contrary to the federal FPÖ, backs a professional army.

In the end, the students at the high school voted only narrowly for a professional army (green ballot = professional army):

()

This is not good, because these students are mostly like me: left-leaning.

If the olds vote as well on Jan. 20, a big majority will probably vote for the draft.

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/salzburg/politik/sn/artikel/salzburger-schueler-stimmten-ueber-bundesheer-ab-36980


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on November 23, 2012, 03:47:10 AM
My home state of Salzburg is also the only one of the 9 states that set aside the partisan politicking and created a bipartisan 15-page brochure, explaining the draft and professional army systems incl. statistics and arguments for and against it (similiar to brochures ahead of Swiss referendums).

This brochure can be downloaded at the state government website and will be sent to each household ahead of the referendum.

Salzburg, once again ahead of all others ... ;)

http://www.salzburg.gv.at/foldervbwehrpflicht_final.pdf

Quote
Vorbild für den Bund: Information statt Emotion Rot-Schwarz legen in Salzburg gemeinsame Fibel für die Wehrpflicht-Volksbefragung auf

Was Bundes-Rote und Bundes-Schwarze ob ihrer Differenzen nicht zustande gebracht haben, ist ihren Salzburger Statthaltern gelungen: SPÖ-Landeshauptfrau Gabi Burgstaller und ihr ÖVP-Vize Wilfried Haslauer informieren sachlich über alle Facetten der Wehrpflicht-Volksbefragung am 20. Jänner. In der 28-seitigen Broschüre finden Bürger die beiden Fragen; detto Fakten zu Wehrpflicht, Zivildienst, Katastrophenschutz – also zu dem, was die ÖVP auch künftig haben will. Ebenso wird jenes Modell erläutert, das die SPÖ bewirbt: Berufsheer samt freiwilligem Sozialjahr.

„Man war peinlich darauf bedacht, beide Seiten möglichst objektiv darzustellen“, sagt der Politik-Berater Thomas Hofer. Das sei insofern bemerkenswert, „als Burgstaller die Pläne ihrer eigenen Partei kritisch sieht“.

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/vorbild-fuer-den-bund-information-statt-emotion/1.352.150


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on November 23, 2012, 08:31:52 AM
New poll by the Public Opinion Institut für Sozialforschung:

60-40 for the draft

But if you ask them about the 2 models (mandatory draft+civil service vs. professional voluntary army+voluntary social year), the draft model is favored by 49% and the professional army model is favored by 44%.

The die-hard supporters of the draft are also more than twice as numerous than the abolitionists: 38% say they "definitely want to keep the draft", while only 17% say they "definitely want it abolished". 22% lean towards keeping the draft and 23% lean towards abolishing it.

http://www.public-opinion.at/wordpress/?p=388


Title: Re: How would you vote ...
Post by: Tender Branson on November 27, 2012, 01:27:58 AM
The BMI (Interior Ministry) has published an information poster about the Jan. 20 draft referendum (incl. how the ballot will look like):

()

Every Austrian citizen who is aged 16+ on Jan. 20 will be automatically eligible to vote.

Also Austrian citizens living abroad are eligible, if they are registered at their previous Austrian home city.

To vote, you have to bring a "amtlicher Lichtbildausweis" with you to the election precinct in your home city (valid government-issued photo ID).

You can also vote with a "Stimmkarte" (with an absentee ballot): In any precinct in Austria, in a "flying election commission" (election officials who visit retirement homes, hospitals etc.) and by post ("Briefwahl").