Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Hash on January 18, 2011, 12:32:58 PM



Title: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 18, 2011, 12:32:58 PM
Given that this thing is already well under way, and to prevent a further proliferation of threads and more mindless blabber on the subject matter between now and whenever, I figure one official thread would be much more preferable. And no, it isn't too early, given that the candidacies will begin and have begun flowing in already.

I've also decided, for those readers not up to date with all the candidacies, a brief guide of potential and official contenders...

Far-left

Nathalie Arthaud (LO): Arlette's successor in the leadership of LO, the more old-style sectarian Trot outfit. She's running no matter what, but she's not funny so nobody will care this time. She'll gather 1-2% talking about the revolution.

Olivier Besancenot (NPA): He's officially hesitating, but I do think he'll run again. He's the party's only member with a media presence and able to rally beyond the Trot sects. Despite failing in 2009 and epic failing in 2010, and despite internal wrangling before 2010 (which could reemerge); he still has a media image and remains more or less popular. While I don't think he'll do that well, polls have him in the 6-7% range. Perhaps he is benefiting from popular anger at the government, but he risks marginalization once the campaign begins.

There are also even more sectarian Trot organizations like the POI which will try to run, depending on whether they get the 500 endorsements. Maybe Schivardi will run again and be the Official Joke Candidate which every election has had. He's the redneck-like hick farmer who drinks way too much and doesn't support Corsican independence "because he has friends there".

The Left Front

Jean-Luc Mélenchon (PG-FG): Despite his party being a joke, Melenchon (who seems to be trying hard to imitate Marchais) has a major media image and is undoubtedly the FG's largest name. While his candidacy is very likely, it is not accepted by many Communists though the Politburo of the PCF supports his candidacy as part of a common FG candidacy. Interestingly, his candidacy could either kill or rejuvenate the PCF depending on the way you look at it. It could kill it by augmenting internal PCF tensions between the Politburo and the Stalinists hardliners. It could rejuvenate it by its ability to gather more than Buffet's pathetic 2007 result of less than 2%. He has between 4 and 7% in polls, but might have peaked too early. Melenchon notably hates journalists (which, considering how bad French media is, isn't a bad thing) and will probably end up physically assaulting one.

Alain Bocquet (PCF): Deputy for the Nord, and already declared candidate. He's an orthodox, though not a Stalinist. He opposes Melenchon and wants a PCF first round candidacy. While he would probably grudgingly accept an official Melenchon candidacy, it might leave traces on the party. He has called Sarkozy's policies as 'petainist'

André Gérin (PCF): Deputy for the Rhône, he is an hardline borderline Stalinist orthodox. He also dislikes Melenchon, who he says is basically a PS plant. Party like it's 1936!

André Chassaigne (PCF): Deputy for the Puy-de-Dome, he, despite being not that well known nationally, did extremely well in the 2010 regionals in Auvergne (16% or so, iirc). He is not classified as either orthodox or Politburo, and could do well in rural areas. He doesn't seem to oppose Melenchon from the orthodox's "HE IS A SOCIAL-TRAITOR" line.

PS

Open primaries (a requirement to pay one euro and sign some stupid declaration of adherence to left-wing values) will be held on October 9 and 16. The candidacies will be deposited between June 28 and July 13.

(major) official candidates

Ségolène Royal (PS): Everybody's favourite candidate, she is already officially a candidate despite rumours to the contrary. Some say she could yet step aside if DSK (she also said that she'd like him to be her PM) is in or that it isn't too late for some backroom deal with her enemy, Aubry. Though she seems to have laid off the hard drugs since 2008, she remains in dire need of mental treatment. As a result of her medical condition, she performs quite poorly in matchups (17-19%) and her popularity numbers are still down the drain. Yet, we should have learned to never underestimate her: remember Reims? She still has an active troop of fanatics and supporters outside the establishment. An open primary helps her. An active media image and a decent charisma helps her. Though she insisted throughout 2009 and early 2010 that her candidacy was not inevitable, she recently admitted that she never really abandoned the idea.

Arnaud Montebourg (PS): An annoying sod and pathological liar (the crusader against double office-holding now holds 2 if not 3 elected offices), he is candidate on his traditional program of creating a 6th Republic and renewing the party. He has little support given that most of his original faction has split up a billion ways, but he does have the support of Christiane Taubira, which means that he is undoubtedly the candidate of the Annoying Sore Losers' and Stupid Sods Coalition.

Manuel Valls (PS): Deputy-mayor of Evry, he is officially a candidate. Like Montebourg, he's 48 and kind of good looking. He is a leading member of the party's Right or 'social liberal' tendency. He recently created a sh**tstorm within the party by saying the PS should stop being so rigid on the 35-hours. He won't win, but could do decently (especially if DSK isn't in), so he's likely after a plum post or preparing the ground for 2017.

There are also 3 other official candidates: Christian Pierret (mayor of Saint-Die and former secretary of state for industry in 1997), Daniel Le Scornet and Jean Mallot (deputy). Mallot seems to be running as a joke candidate with a sarcastic parody of the primaries and the PS' feuds as his main program.

Potential candidates

Martine Aubry (PS): Party leader. She will decide before June if she does run, likely waiting to see if DSK runs in which case she could potentially not go. Her objective is an obsession to make everything go smoothly and to keep everybody's egos under control. She's doing a rather good job at it, and her numbers are getting better. If DSK isn't in, she is then the frontrunner. She has roughly 22-24% in polls against Sarkozy in the first round.

François Hollande (PS): Former leader and deputy. He could conceivably announce his candidacy, which seems likely, after the cantonals where he is the favourite to retain control of Correze's CG. He is slowly coming up from behind in polls, with 18% in the last primary polling numbers. He remains weak in matchups, with 17-20% in those.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn (PS): Director-General of the IMF, a term expiring in November 2012. Obviously, he himself refuses to talk about the subject matter but he must take a decision before the summer and also then resign his IMF post. His clan unsuccessfully tried to push for a delay in the primaries to give him more time. He is the early frontrunner but his nomination in case of a candidacy isn't a certainty though more likely than not. He is a member of the party's Right, or social-liberal faction which opens him up to attacks from his left from Melenchon and Besancenot. His non-partisan above-the-fray aura coming from his international job makes him the most popular politician in France with like 75-80% favourability ratings. He also leads Sarkozy by the first round with voting intentions hovering between 27 and 31%. He would, right now, crush Sarkozy in a runoff. Some polls even give him like 62-38 in a runoff, which is amusing. Undoubtedly, his aura would fade out and his numbers fall (though not dwindle) if he is candidate. Still the strongest contender.

Outsiders include: Gerard Collomb (mayor of Lyon), who says he's in if DSK isn't. He now seems to be a DSK backer after being behind Royal in 2008. Moscovici is also a candidate if DSK isn't. Even Delanoë (mayor of Paris), who until recently seemed to be out of it, said he might do it if he was in position to do so. Fabius, Hamon, Bianco and Lang will probably not run but could jump in if something really big happened; though it's doubtful.

The other lefties

Eva Joly (EELV): The MEP and Norwegian-born judge is EELV's most likely candidate. She has clear ambitions and the backing of Duflot and Cohn-Bendit. Yet, she seems to have scuttled her early candidacy and strong backing for it, likely because she has difficulty appearing as a media-savy lying bastard of a candidate in the media. She has between 4 and 6% in polls now.

Nicolas Hulot (Ecolo): The famous Telecologist and TV host is again considering whether or not to run, like in 2007. It seems like he's gonna wait a long time again, and I personally doubt he'll run. He would also be a bad candidate, given that he probably can't lead an electoral campaign. He has around 6-8% in polls.

Yves Cochet might run if there are primaries. Duflot and Cohn-Bendit are out.

Jean-Pierre Chevènement (MRC): He says that he's seriously considering running. I kind of doubt it. His fad has passed. This is likely part of his party's traditional bluff to force the PS to whore itself to it and give it a constituency or two.

The PRG (the PS' whores), experts in the game of bluff to force the PS to whore itself to it, are also trying their independent game. With Bernard Tapie probably not running, they have no candidate besides their boring local baron Jean-Michel Baylet who would get trounced outside his family and department.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 18, 2011, 12:34:36 PM

Centre

François Bayrou (MoDem): Since the failure of his 09-10 mood of whoring himself to the PS, which was followed by the epic failure of the regionals, Bayrou, who is, now more than ever, in dire need of mental help, is attempting to go back to the centre and try patching up with Sarkozy. He will undoubtedly run again as part of his strategy of pretending that there can be a viable third force. Polls now give him between 5 and 7% or so.

Hervé Morin (NC): The NC is really in an unenviable position. It knows that it really should run a candidate in 2012 to prove itself as a real party and prevent the inevitable debate over when it will disband altogether. Yet, it knows that a candidacy by its leader and former defense minister Hervé Morin would gather a pathetic result between 1 and 3%. Being out of government makes his candidacy a bit easier, but the NC is very reticent about allowing him to go ahead. Jean-Christophe Lagarde would prefer an alliance with the other islands of the centrist archipelago.

Jean-Louis Borloo (PR-UMP): leader of the Radicals and former cabinet minister. The Radicals, an associate party of the UMP, has recently received the adhesion of a number of grumbling UMPers like Rama Yade or Yves Jego. Certain within the UMP, especially the centrists but not Sarkozy, would like a Borloo candidacy in order to have a centre-right 'green' first round candidacy capable of taking votes from Bayrou and even the Greens. I personally am a bit wary of such a strategy, given that it doesn't necessarily mean that Sarkozy would have a significant vote reservoir. Sarkozy is also wary, but perhaps letting him go from cabinet was a sign that he was warming up to the idea. Sarkozy and the UMP's establishment have a weird belief in the myth of "first round victory" which holds that being ahead in the first round gives you a significant boost and dynamic for the runoff.  Thus, any division of the majority would be unwelcome for such a reason. He would also be a bad candidate, given his disorderly image and slightly lazy image.

Right

Christine Boutin (PCD): Egomaniac totally devoid of political skills. Best known for crying a river in Parliament and hating teh gayz peoples. She says she will run in 2012, but I have my doubts.

Dominique de Villepin (RS): He will most likely run. He is attempting a centre-right moderate Gaullist strategy trying to pick up centrist voters and unhappy UMPers. After a spike this summer in polls, his numbers have come down to 3-6%.

Dear Leader Nicolas Sarkozy/the Hungarian Dwarf (UMP): Dear Leader will certainly run again unless he dies or something. He obviously doesn't seem to be the guy who bows out after one term. Unpopular, with approvals in the low 30s for a long time. Hurt by a whole slew of scandals (Karachi, EPAD, mediator, Bettencourt/L'Oreal). Unlike Mitterrand and Chirac, deeply unpopular in their first times, he will not be saved by cohabitation and thus blame-shifting to a government of another colour. Thus, instead of being a 1988/2002 like election, it will be more like 1981. A lot say that voters in the presidential election will forget the bad stuff and vote on issues and stuff like that. If true, it could help him. The left's legendary ability to shoot itself in the foot could help. Despite having a solid base of roughly 25% in all cases, he will be hurt by: a) significant loses with working-class voters, which were important for him in 2007, b) significant loses with middle-class and urban centrist/liberal voters, which turned heavily against the UMP in 2010, c) inability to hold the FN voters he got in 2007.

NDA (DLR): The French JFK, or alternatively a rather annoying person with a mancrush on de Gaulle, will run if he can. Despite low media coverage, he still got 4% in IdF in the regionals, and could catch a fair share of unhappy traditional right-wing voters. Not really polled, he could win between 1 and 4% imo.

Far-right

Marine Le Pen (FN): Official candidate of the party and also the official leader. She might be peaking early, but right now she has a perfect storm brewing. The anti-Islamic stuff works well, but she is also less racist than Daddy on that stuff and she has competently presented the issue as a matter of secularism and not as much ol' racism against ze blacks and ze Ayrabs Moslems. She is moderate on social issues which don't really matter. She has a far more modern image than Daddy who couldn't resist making a racist comment, a borderline neo-Nazi comment and a 1930s-comment on the socialo-communists destroying France. She is left-wing on economic issues, which works well these days. Her big base with party members/rank-and-file is a big plus. She might make the runoff, but the chances of that are under 50%. Parties remember April 21, 2002 and all parties will take out the bazookas like they never do to prevent another one.

Carl Lang (PDF): Old anti-Marine crypto-fascist who split in 2009 from the FN. He is backed by the old 2-member far-right groupings and unsavoury neo-Nazis/fascist types. He is worthless, but perhaps the UMP will secretly boost him to hurt Marine. Yet he'd still win 0.5-1% if he can manage the 500 endorsements.

Jacques Cheminade, the LaRouchite, will also try to run but won't get the 500 endorsements. There are also rumours that Brigitte Bardot would be candidate for the AEI, a small mix of scientologists, loons and centrist greenies; but Waechter has since distanced himself from the AEI to get back with the Greenies.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 18, 2011, 01:35:17 PM
Congratulations, this thread was a long overdue seeing how this topic seems to interest a lot of people now. Thanks for your approfondite overview of the candidates. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 20, 2011, 11:54:36 AM
I really think there is no threat to see Marine "PanzerGirl" in the 2nd round.

For the moment, she has the right positioning,

- being far-rightist in the European meaning of the word, i.e. secularism against Islam, but a bit less against immigration and crime, a bit less openly racist (as she knows that she must be "acceptable" for French medias and distance herself from Big Old Daddy; while still appealing to old extremist voters, who don't understand the difference between Islam and immigration and so still think she is as racist as Daddy, which is fine for them),

- being modern on social and moral matters (as she knows traditional Villiers voters will go to Boutin or Sarkozy and make at best 1.5 %),

- being leftist on economical and social matters, as the far-left is divided (surprising, eh ?), with the only one doing good in the polls (Besancenot) hesitating to be candidate and very debated inside the far lest apparatuses, and as Mélenchon has peaked too early.

Despite these very good points, electorally and tactically speaking, well, everybody knows what happened in 2002 and this won't occur again.

Plus, as I've already said, other potential outsiders are down (Bayrou, Villepin, Mélenchon, Besancenot, Joly). Even Hulot and Borloo are already shooting in their own foot, by procrastinating, and they would anyway be bad campaigners, whatever the big propaganda efforts made by the French medias if they are candidates.

So, I don't think Marine will make it to the 2nd round.

BUT she'll destroy one of the 2 candidates and, in a way, she'll decide the winner as soon as in the first round.

If DSK or Hollande is candidate, Sarkozy will be eaten both by the socialist candidate, who will gather Bayrou and centre-right voters, and by Marine Le Pen as he won't be able to steal FN voters in the same way as 2007 (have you seen the small ironic smile of Marine Le Pen when she spoke about 2007 and some promises of Sarkozy towards the popular electorate, both industry jobs and tough crime policy, that failed miserably ? She knows these voters won't go to Sarkozy again).

If Aubry is candidate after a tough campaign against Royal and/or Hollande in which she is forced to take Hamon and Emmanuelli's ideas, Aubry will be deprived of popular electorate by Marine Le Pen, as they anyway won't vote for Delors' daughter, and won't be able to prevent Sarkozy from doing a centrist move (Sarkozy may well think, in this case, he could try to force another 2002 situation).

This second scenario is far less likely, as, without DSK, the "right wing" PS will be divided between Valls, Hollande, maybe Moscovici and even Delanoë and as Aubry will be able to remain in a center position inside the PS.

In a way, Sarkozy 2007 recipe will be the exact thing that will kill him in 2012:
he should have gone more centrist as soon as 2008, in order to favour a Copé or some tough right politician to be candidate in order to kill Marine and let him being the centre-right candidate.

Of course, this is not at all his personality but that would have probably been the best solution.
(and, of course, it's easy to say this now... I didn't think about it in 2008... :P)

In a nutshell, I think Sarkozy has already lost, as only a too leftist Aubry (or a Royal but she won't win the primary) may give him the election.



I post this again in order to BUMP the thread and answer to Benoît in the right thread and to tell him that he bases his analysis a bit too much on TV image.
Marine Le Pen is a bad politician, with no credibility, OK, but which one is really credible nowadays ?
Sure, DSK, Fillon, Hollande, Juppé aren't too ridiculous, but they are so few...
That doesn't count, unfortunately.

In 2012, the right will have been in power for 10 years. This simple fact is a big reason why Sarkozy is probaby doomed.



And, Hash, it's Gerin, not Gérin.
Just to make your overview a bit closer to perfection and completeness ;).

BTW, there is still to see a real candidate from the far-left emerge to take Besancenot's place.
Maybe Mélenchon will benefit from this, or Besancenot will be a candidate after all.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on January 20, 2011, 02:01:05 PM
French politics seem more complicated than anything I've heard of before. Good job with the thread though Hash.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 20, 2011, 03:43:45 PM
CSA (a joke pollster and awful one at that), 20/01

DSK (PS) 30%
Sarkozy (UMP) 23%
Le Pen (FN) 17%
Bayrou (MoDem) 6%
Joly (EELV) 6%
Besancenot (NPA) 5%
Melenchon (FG) 5%
Villepin (RS) 5%
Arthaud (LO) 2%
Dupont-Aignan (DLR) 1%

Sarkozy (UMP) 27%
Aubry (PS) 22%
Le Pen (FN) 17%
Bayrou (MoDem) 9%
Joly (EELV) 6%
Besancenot (NPA) 6%
Villepin (RS) 6%
Melenchon (FG) 5%
Arthaud (LO) 1%
Dupont-Aignan (DLR) 1%

Sarkozy (UMP) 26%
Royal (PS) 21%
Le Pen (FN) 17%
Bayrou (MoDem) 10%
Joly (EELV) 8%
Villepin (RS) 7%
Melenchon (FG) 5%
Besancenot (NPA) 4%
Arthaud (LO) 1%
Dupont-Aignan (DLR) 1%

Sarkozy (UMP) 26%
Hollande (PS) 20%
Le Pen (FN) 17%
Bayrou (MoDem) 9%
Joly (EELV) 8%
Villepin (RS) 7%
Besancenot (NPA) 6%
Melenchon (FG) 5%
Arthaud (LO) 1%
Dupont-Aignan (DLR) 1%

Runoffs:
with DSK: 64-36 for DSK
with Aubry: 56-44 for Aubry
with Royal: 50-50
with Hollande: 55-45 for Hollande


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Emperor on January 20, 2011, 04:37:53 PM
Poor France, is doomed to became islamic in 2050 no matter who wins !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 20, 2011, 04:44:10 PM
French politics seem more complicated than anything I've heard of before.

Nah, there are just a lot of egomaniacs, hacks, useless feuds, etc... Ideologically, French politics are usually epically boring.


Runoffs:
with DSK: 64-36 for DSK
with Aubry: 56-44 for Aubry
with Royal: 50-50
with Hollande: 55-45 for Hollande

Huh, yeah, those results are nowhere near plausibility.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Psychic Octopus on January 20, 2011, 06:41:42 PM
Royal kind of reminds me of a French Sarah Palin. Devoted followers, but the candidate seems to have a head filled with sawdust. Didn't Royal once call for sanctions against the Taliban... in 2007?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 20, 2011, 06:44:54 PM
There are certain similarities, but would you think of making the comparison if they weren't both women? Because the differences are rather large as well; Royal was an established (and ultimately establishment) politician for decades before her run in 2007.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Psychic Octopus on January 20, 2011, 06:48:05 PM
There are certain similarities, but would you think of making the comparison if they weren't both women? Because the differences are rather large as well; Royal was an established (and ultimately establishment) politician for decades before her run in 2007.

Eh, true. Royal isn't part of the establishment now, though.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 20, 2011, 06:58:21 PM
There are certain similarities, but would you think of making the comparison if they weren't both women? Because the differences are rather large as well; Royal was an established (and ultimately establishment) politician for decades before her run in 2007.

Eh, true. Royal isn't part of the establishment now, though.

I'd argue every PS faction outside the fringe lefties leftover (and even then...) and a few young people which nobody cares about are part of the party's establishment. They're just different clans of the larger establishment supported by a plethora of local barons.

If Segogo was really anti-establishment, then she'd never have stood a chance. One of the reasons she did so well in 2008 was also that she had a lot of local barons lined up behind her, most notably the criminal Guerini family mafia of the Bouches-du-Rhone. Because, yeah, a map of her 2008 support is a map of the local strongholds of the various establishment factions (local barons) who supported her in 2008. In fact, just like every other Congress.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 21, 2011, 08:39:06 AM
BVA 14 & 15 / 1

Arthaud 0
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 5
Aubry 23
Joly 5
Bayrou 6
Borloo 5
Villepin 5
Sarkozy 27
Le Pen 17

Arthaud 0
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 4
Aubry 31
Joly 6
Bayrou 5
Borloo 2
Villepin 3
Sarkozy 25
Le Pen 17

Funny to see that DSK steals points first to Borloo, Sarkozy and Villepin !!
Besancenot remains ridiculously high: there is again a strong leftist rebellious vote that is still up for grabs and many French people haven't really followed what is happening inside the far left.

Aubry/Sarkozy 57/43
DSK/Sarkozy 64/36

What is amazing is what happens between the 2 rounds:
- DSK receives 69% of Bayrou voters (not a great surprise), 68% of Villepin voters and 34% of Le Pen voters !!! (Sarkozy has only 24% of Le Pen voters...)
- Aubry takes 49% of Bayrou (25% for Sarkozy), 48% of Villepin (!!! Sarkozy takes only 31% !!!), 33% of Le Pen (Sarkozy 40%) and, last but not least, 48% of Borloo (!!! OMG !!! Sarkozy only 45% !)

Of course, these percentages apply to very small samples... But, still....
It may prove that there strong anger and disappointment
among centre-right voters (politically forgotten and irritated by bling-bling and by Hortefeux-Estrosi)
and among FN voters (many really believed in Sarkozy in 2007 and the disappointment is now very deep).

Sarkozy's popularity is very low among centrist voters (MoDem + NC, if this has any meaning in a poll with such a sample....): 65% of bad opinions, while Fillon has 65% of... good opinions.
And among FN voters, Sarkozy has 70% of bad opinions (while Fillon has only 55%).

With Copé playing the lil' capitalist like Sarkozy in 2007, with personal disputes again at work (Copé-Bertrand, Devedjian-sarkozysts, Copé-Fillon, Woerth-all the UMP,...), with another defeat in the cantonales in March, with Larcher threatened in the Senate in September,
and now with Sarkozy amazingly badly positioned, as he is rebuted from the far-right AND from the center-right,
I really don't see how he could win.

Fillon could be able to win against Aubry (but not DSK or Hollande), but Sarkozy has a small chance only against Royal...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 22, 2011, 02:49:46 AM
Even more reason for Sarkozy to be seriously challenged for the nomination.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 22, 2011, 03:11:01 AM
Even more reason for Sarkozy to be seriously challenged for the nomination.

It's impossible. Sarkozy is the party.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 22, 2011, 07:39:28 AM
Wait, a BVA poll gives Aubry... 57% ? ??? For real ? ???


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 22, 2011, 09:07:13 AM
Even more reason for Sarkozy to be seriously challenged for the nomination.

Yeah, the days pigs will fly.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 22, 2011, 11:45:20 AM
Even more reason for Sarkozy to be seriously challenged for the nomination.

Yeah, the days pigs will fly.

Air France on strike?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 22, 2011, 01:30:39 PM
Sarkozy will kill the UMP in his own defeat.

It will be interesting to see if Copé is able to save a big bunch of it: after all, he can keep the former DL with him, BUT he may not be able to keep many, many former RPRs. His strength will be that Fillon is alone.

If Sarkozy's defeat means DSK victory (do you really think he will be able to be re-elected in 2017 ;D ?) and a plural right, with a strong centre-right, well, why not, after all ? ;)

OK, OK, this is the 2012 thread... sorry...



Yes, Antonio, Aubry at 57% in a BVA poll: you can understand how sad I can be these days :P :D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 22, 2011, 01:45:10 PM
Is BVA a reliable pollster or is it like CSA ? I have difficulties to believe Aubry would do better than Mitterrand when he crushed Chirac in 1988.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 22, 2011, 05:08:04 PM
Is BVA a reliable pollster or is it like CSA ? I have difficulties to believe Aubry would do better than Mitterrand when he crushed Chirac in 1988.

It's decent, but polls more than a year out are useless junk. Remember the triumphal reelection of Giscard in 1981? Balladur's crushing of Chirac in 1995? Chevenement's 12% in 2002 with Jospin's close runoff victory? Exactly.

Until Ipsos starts polling, then polls are best taken as things to make us salivate.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 23, 2011, 06:28:37 AM
Is BVA a reliable pollster or is it like CSA ? I have difficulties to believe Aubry would do better than Mitterrand when he crushed Chirac in 1988.

It's decent, but polls more than a year out are useless junk. Remember the triumphal reelection of Giscard in 1981? Balladur's crushing of Chirac in 1995? Chevenement's 12% in 2002 with Jospin's close runoff victory? Exactly.

Until Ipsos starts polling, then polls are best taken as things to make us salivate.

You're 100% right. However, I can't hide my joy right now... :D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 23, 2011, 05:57:16 PM
I'd say BVA and IFOP are better for some years now (and Opinion Way, surprisingly !)
IPSOS is still nr.1, but with a lesser margin.
SOFRES is probably the one which has lost the biggest ground since the mid 2000s.
ViaVoice hasn't polled enough to be sure.
CSA is still the French Zogby.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 23, 2011, 06:12:48 PM
Yeah, OpinionWay did good with the regionals. It also thankfully destroyed the left's pathetic line of ZOMGZ TEHY POLL FOR LE FIGARO SO THEY R AWFUL POOLSTERS!!!!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 24, 2011, 05:40:45 PM
New candidate yay!

Maxime Gremetz, a hardcore Stalinist hothead, is probably running for the PCF nomination... despite not being a member of the PCF. He has served as deputy for the Somme on-and-off since 1978 and was also an MEP for a while. Originally one of the party's stooges in the late 70s, he has become a thorn in the side of the Politburo of the PCF to the point that they threw him out in 2006 and ran an official PCF candidate against him in 2007 (he also ran as a communist dissident in the 2010 regionals, coming narrowly ahead of the FG list). He's a mad and slightly insane populist, and has been suspected of a deal with the FN to win some public office in some public agency. He is known for being insane, notably by almost running over a police officer in 1998, shoving a PS regional councillor, and then by attacking and apparently looting the office of fellow PCF deputy Daniel Paul. The candidacy of Joseph Stalin's French grandson makes this election fun automatically.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 26, 2011, 09:26:56 AM
New candidate yay!

Maxime Gremetz, a hardcore Stalinist hothead, is probably running for the PCF nomination... despite not being a member of the PCF. He has served as deputy for the Somme on-and-off since 1978 and was also an MEP for a while. Originally one of the party's stooges in the late 70s, he has become a thorn in the side of the Politburo of the PCF to the point that they threw him out in 2006 and ran an official PCF candidate against him in 2007 (he also ran as a communist dissident in the 2010 regionals, coming narrowly ahead of the FG list). He's a mad and slightly insane populist, and has been suspected of a deal with the FN to win some public office in some public agency. He is known for being insane, notably by almost running over a police officer in 1998, shoving a PS regional councillor, and then by attacking and apparently looting the office of fellow PCF deputy Daniel Paul. The candidacy of Joseph Stalin's French grandson makes this election fun automatically.

Wow, that's quite impressive. I confusedly heard about the latter, but I couldn't imagine he was such a psychopath.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 26, 2011, 10:00:20 AM
New candidate yay!

Maxime Gremetz, a hardcore Stalinist hothead, is probably running for the PCF nomination... despite not being a member of the PCF. He has served as deputy for the Somme on-and-off since 1978 and was also an MEP for a while. Originally one of the party's stooges in the late 70s, he has become a thorn in the side of the Politburo of the PCF to the point that they threw him out in 2006 and ran an official PCF candidate against him in 2007 (he also ran as a communist dissident in the 2010 regionals, coming narrowly ahead of the FG list). He's a mad and slightly insane populist, and has been suspected of a deal with the FN to win some public office in some public agency. He is known for being insane, notably by almost running over a police officer in 1998, shoving a PS regional councillor, and then by attacking and apparently looting the office of fellow PCF deputy Daniel Paul. The candidacy of Joseph Stalin's French grandson makes this election fun automatically.

Wow, that's quite impressive. I confusedly heard about the latter, but I couldn't imagine he was such a psychopath.

Maybe Jo Stalin's French son is also Kyle Mercado's dad.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 26, 2011, 12:36:32 PM
Gremetz for President!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 26, 2011, 06:04:19 PM
So, Aubry called Royal impatient and Royal threw a small hissy fit. It seems as if the Traditional Civil War of the PS will start soon.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 27, 2011, 08:46:59 AM
So, Aubry called Royal impatient and Royal threw a small hissy fit. It seems as if the Traditional Civil War of the PS will start soon.

Please, just don't let Royal win again. We are about to break the recond of "unlosable elections" lost.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 08, 2011, 10:35:10 AM
The centrist group in the Senate is about to elect a new president.

Le Figaro calculates that there are 7 MoDem or close to it, 9 NC or close to it and 10 AC or close to this small Arthuis' party.
Which leaves 3 without any clear label.

And, of course, there... 3 candidates for this incredibly important presidency ;).
But not Valérie Létard, NC but close to Borloo, who is still inside the UMP with his Radical Party.

And the candidate which is AC, Zocchetto, seems to disagree with Arthuis, as Arthuis has joined Morin and the NC in a project of a new centrist confederation, and seems to let open the door for Bayrou...

You have'nt understood anything ?
That just means you're normal ;D.
There is almost a new wing with each new centrist :D.

Now, you've got the NC members who are in favour of Borloo (J.C. Lagarde, Létard, Leroy, even Sauvadet, though a bit less for the latter), those who are in favour of an alliance with Arthuis, but don't want to be too kind with Bayrou (Dionis du Séjour), those who first want to be seen as different from the UMP (Morin).

Inside the MoDem, divisions are a bit less deep, as they are... less and less numerous. But, Michel Mercier is still MoDem, while you've got many local apparatchiki who are more on the left.

Fascinating.

BTW, maneuvers from Arthuis may mean he wants the Senate presidency for himself next September, when a hung Senate is a likely possibility.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RodPresident on February 08, 2011, 12:37:03 PM
President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva said that he wants a woman to be next President of French Republic. He said this at a meeting with Secretary-General of PS, Martine Aubry, at World Social Forum, in Dakar, Senegal.
()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 08, 2011, 05:12:03 PM
Hervé Maurey (NC-Eure), close to Morin and supported by Arthuis, should easily win given that the NC and AC dominate the group.

Also, Jean Louis Bianco has said that he won't run in the PS primaries. I figure that his ego didn't want to get 0.5% of the vote.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 09, 2011, 08:05:19 AM
Hervé Maurey (NC-Eure), close to Morin and supported by Arthuis, should easily win given that the NC and AC dominate the group.

But, NO!

Zocchetto won, since the two other candidates retired minutes before the vote, to show unity.
Apparently, according to some medias, AC senators refused to let NC control the group, since they already the Assembly group. They didn't wanted than the NC had more control on the center.

As usual, they are fighting each other while they aren't very relevent (well, except in Senate, since the right hasn't a majority).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 09, 2011, 08:55:39 AM
Hervé Maurey (NC-Eure), close to Morin and supported by Arthuis, should easily win given that the NC and AC dominate the group.

But, NO!

Zocchetto won, since the two other candidates retired minutes before the vote, to show unity.
Apparently, according to some medias, AC senators refused to let NC control the group, since they already the Assembly group. They didn't wanted than the NC had more control on the center.

As usual, they are fighting each other while they aren't very relevent (well, except in Senate, since the right hasn't a majority).

That is... surprising. Seemingly Arthuis decided to abandon Maurey last minute to back Zocchetto, who also got support from the MoDem.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 09, 2011, 06:29:10 PM
What is fascinating is that AC senators felt a bit betrayed by Arthuis making friends with Morin too... quickly.
OMG, we are in 2011 ! 4 years after the explosion of the center-right...

It's so fun to see that even small chiefs have no big power in their small cohorts :D.
Morin is almost alone in his own party;
Arthuis isn't followed in the first political test for him since 2007;
both MoDem newcomers (greener and more to the left) and remaining ex-UDF local barons feel betrayed by Bayrou (who hasn't signed an agreement with the left or who opposes the government too harshly).

Miam, miam ! J'aime la "micro-politique" ! :D

When you see all the "presidential" candidates everywhere (see the Greens, see the Front de Gauche, see the many centrist organizations, see the PS), it seems as if France is experiencing a pre-primary fool day, as its "new" de facto fully presidential regime has now its first real election (2007 was a transition one between the old system and the new one).

After all, 2012 isn't so bad for the moment, electorally and "parochialistically" speaking.
But maybe it will be more 2011 than 2012 which will be interesting... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 18, 2011, 06:03:13 AM
CSA-Marianne, made 14-15 Feb. by phone (sample 1005):

DSK 29 / 61
Sarkozy 22 / 39
Le Pen 17
Bayrou 8
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 6
Joly 5
Villepin 4
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 1

Sarkozy 26 / 46
Aubry 22 / 54
Le Pen 17
Bayrou 9
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 6
Joly 6
Villepin 5
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 1

Sarkozy 26 / 54
Hollande 20 / 46
Le Pen 17
Bayrou 10
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 7
Joly 6
Villepin 5
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 1

Sarjozy 26 / 50
Royal 18 / 50
Le Pen 17
Bayrou 10
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 8
Joly 7
Villepin 5
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 1

So, DSK is amazingly strong on the paper, because he doesn't steal (at least directly) voters from Bayrou, Joly, Villepin, but from this very Sarkozy !!!
(even if it's probably indirect: myself, I'd vote Sarkozy in the 1st round only if it's not DSK candidate...)



IFOP France-Soir, made by "computer assisted web interviewing" on 16-17 Feb. (sample 949 registered voters among a total sample of 1068)

DSK 26
Sarkozy 22
Le Pen 19
Bayrou 7
Joly 7
Villepin 4
Morin 2
Besancenot 5.5
Mélenchon 6
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 0.5

Aubry 22
Sarkozy 23
Le Pen 20
Bayrou 8
Joly 7
Villepin 5
Morin 2.5
Besancenot 5
Mélenchon 5.5
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 1

OMG, will IFOP be the disappointment of this election or is PanzerGirl really so high ??


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 18, 2011, 06:17:22 AM
I can't believe polls have now FN at 20%. Either they're gaming the numbers or the next election could be another bloodbath for democracy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 18, 2011, 06:32:11 AM
DSK may be hoping that Sarkozy has a rebound :P

Because if Sarkozy is crunched from both sides, as he is now, the prospect of a big, big victory of the left fuels the left of the PS...

Everything is about dynamics and momentums...
Enjoy this spring ;D, as 2012 may be a boring election after all the pre-electoral dust is settled...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 18, 2011, 07:15:36 AM
From the IFOP poll (beware, it's an Internet one):

Le Pen has 37%/34% of workers (Aubry and DSK hypotheses) and 32% of employees...

The only "stronghold" for Sarkozy (but "only" with 27-29%): the retirees.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 18, 2011, 07:58:04 AM
I think the winner of the election will mostly depend on how the PS primaries go, because in a so favorable situation the only thing able to kill the PS is the PS. So of course it's a shame we have to wait for almost another year instead of just having them now, even though this will allow me to vote. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 18, 2011, 10:54:02 AM
I can't believe polls have now FN at 20%. Either they're gaming the numbers or the next election could be another bloodbath for democracy.

Well, look at the situation:
a) the incumbent President is as popular as the plague, and there is no inspiring alternative within the right
b) aside from DSK, all PS candidates are boring hacks and most are utterly lacking in charisma. Furthermore, as always, the PS has no substance aside from WE R OPPOSITION VOTE 4 US.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on February 22, 2011, 01:00:14 PM
A new phone poll made by TNS-Sofres (18-19 Feb., sample 1000):

Marine is also surging here, and there is an interesting hypothesis with Montebourg, who would be, unsurprisingly, crushed by Le Pen.

Arthaud 0,5 % (-0,5)
Besancenot 7 % (+0,5)
Mélenchon 7 % (+1)
Aubry 24 %/56 % (+1/+1)
Joly 6 % (-2)
Bayrou 5 % (-2)
Borloo 4,5 % (-2)
Villepin 4,5 % (+0,5)
Sarkozy 24/44 % (-1/-1)
Le Pen 17,5 % (+4,5)

Turnout : 77 %

Arthaud 1 % (=)
Besancenot 8 % (+1,5)
Mélenchon 7,5 % (+0,5)
Royal 19 %/52 % (+2/=)
Joly 8 % (-1)
Bayrou 5 % (-2)
Borloo 4,5 % (-3,5)
Villepin 5 % (+1)
Sarkozy 24/48 % (-2/=)
Le Pen 17,5 % (+3,5)

Turnout : 75 %

Arthaud 1 % (=)
Besancenot 8 % (+1)
Mélenchon 7,5 % (+0,5)
Hollande 22 %/56 % (+5,5/+1)
Joly 6,5 % (-1,5)
Bayrou 5 % (-3)
Borloo 4 % (-4,5)
Villepin 5 % (=)
Sarkozy 23/44 % (-2,5/-1)
Le Pen 18,5 % (+4,5)

Turnout : 76 %

Arthaud 1 % (-0,5)
Besancenot 7 % (+0,5)
Mélenchon 6,5 % (+0,5)
Strauss-Kahn 29 %/63 % (+2/+1)
Joly 6,5 % (-0,5)
Bayrou 5 % (-1)
Borloo 4 % (-1)
Villepin 3,5 % (-0,5)
Sarkozy 21/37 % (-3/-1)
Le Pen 17 % (+3,5)

Turnout : 80 %

Arthaud 1 %
Besancenot 8 %
Mélenchon 7,5 %
Montebourg 15 %
Joly 8 %
Bayrou 6 %
Borloo 5 %
Villepin 5,5 %
Sarkozy 25 %
Le Pen 19 %

Turnout : 72 %


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 23, 2011, 02:41:16 PM
All this seems too beautiful to be true...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 25, 2011, 04:24:59 AM
CSA 21-22 Feb., sample of 1005 RV

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 8
Mélenchon 6
DSK 28
Joly 4
Bayrou 5.5
Villepin 5
Morin 1
Sarkozy 23
Dupont-Aignan 0.5
Le Pen 18

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 8
Mélenchon 6
DSK 33
Joly 5
Bayrou 4.5
Villepin 5
Morin 1
Fillon 18
Dupont-Aignan 0.5
Le Pen 18

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 8
Mélenchon 6
DSK 34
Joly 4
Bayrou 5.5
Villepin 9
Morin 1
Copé 12
Dupont-Aignan 0.5
Le Pen 19

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 8
Mélenchon 7
DSK 33
Joly 5
Bayrou 5.5
Villepin 9
Morin 1
Borloo 12
Dupont-Aignan 0.5
Le Pen 18

Of course, it's so obvious that Sarkozy will be the candidate that Copé and Borloo have bad results as this seems so weird they can be the UMP candidate. But still, that's quite bad for them.

What's fascinating is that the main winner in case Sarkozy isn't candidate is again... DSK himself !
And, of course, Villepin if it's not Fillon.

(What's irritating is this stupidly high Besancenot...)



Now that DSK is candidate (of course, guys !), with Aubry PM or Finance minister and Fabius Foreign Affairs minister or Speaker of the National Assembly,
will Hollande be able to gather more leftist voters in the primary ?

It's of course doubtful, but he was dear to old activists inside the PS and he might be able to appear more central inside the PS (almost like Aubry is for now) than DSK.
Of course, he will have a fine exposure after the cantonales results.

Obviously, Hamon may be candidate and, then, it's over. But that would be a fine paradox to see Hamon making DSK win more easily !

Or do you think Delanoë could take this role of a more leftist candidate against DSK ?
If Hollande slows down and if Aubry succeeds in keeping Hamon calm (in DSK's name), Delanoë could be tempted.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 25, 2011, 07:14:09 AM
Delanoë seems gone now, he would have a hard time looking credible now. And please God spare us of the infernal (former) couple.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 25, 2011, 08:48:44 AM
Delanoë seems gone now, he would have a hard time looking credible now. And please God spare us of the infernal (former) couple.

I was shocked when I saw that he was thinking of running. What the hell does he think he's doing? He had his prime, golden chance in 2008 but ruined it when he turned to be a totally incompetent campaigner who couldn't even beat a stupid drug addict. His little aura, thank the Lord, has passed. Now we just need to quash Collomb's remaining aura. Two overrated useless mayors.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 27, 2011, 01:54:54 PM
Mini-shuffle:

MAM is dumped, replaced by Juppe. Juppe is replaced by Longuet (president of the senate UMP group). Claude Gueant becomes Interior Minister, and I don't know what they'll do with the Vichyist.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 02, 2011, 06:57:26 PM
Is this "DSK - Will he? Won't he?" boring anyone else?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 03, 2011, 04:27:01 AM
Is this "DSK - Will he? Won't he?" boring anyone else?

65 million people. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 03, 2011, 05:56:53 AM
The election will be boring as the socialist candidate will win.
So, better to be interested in all this suspense BEFORE the election ;).

Even though I think, he'll be a candidate.
When he said he regrets that Delors wasn't candidate in 1995, well, it says all.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 03, 2011, 08:27:02 AM
It's not like I care whether or not he runs. Socialists can win without him, and I'd be fully satisfied with either Aubry or him. But with the election aproaching, not even knowing who is our candidate is rather annoying.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 03, 2011, 08:33:13 AM
It's not like I care whether or not he runs. Socialists can win without him, and I'd be fully satisfied with either Aubry or him. But with the election aproaching, not even knowing who is our candidate is rather annoying.

Jospin, 1995 and Royal, 2007 were picked later (sure, they lost ;), but that wasn't the reason).

Let me enjoy the suspense with the constant rise of Hollande, probably boosted by medias after the 27th of March (cantonales' second round).

Let me enjoy some drame from Royal.

Let me enjoy the possible fight between Fabius and Aubry if she tries to turn around DSK.

Let me enjoy the many governments on paper that will begin to be listed from July.

At least, on the left, this pre-electoral year is very interesting ;).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 03, 2011, 09:51:20 AM
Hey, look at this, we were just talking about it !

IFOP poll, 24-25 February, sample of 524 leftists among a national sample of 969, with 219 socialists among the 524 leftists:

among leftists (polls of 6-7 Jan., 13-21 Jan., 10-11 Feb. and 24-25 Feb.):
DSK 36 - 41 - 43 - 40
Aubry 20 - 20 - 24 - 17
Royal 15 - 17 - 12 - 17
Hollande 13 - 11 - 11 - 15
Montebourg 7 - 5 - 3 - 4
Valls 4 - 3 - 4 - 4

among socialists only:
DSK 47 - 48 - 46 - 49
Royal 11 - 17 - 14 - 19
Aubry 12 - 17 - 22 - 15
Hollande 18 - 11 - 11 - 15
Valls 4- -2 - 2 - 2
Montebourg 4 - 3 - 3 - 0

So, DSK is still very high: no sign of boredom ;D.
Aubry's rise is stopped, while Hollande is gaining ground and Royal has a chaotic trend, as usual, but is still harmful for someone.
Montebourg has alreadu failed and Valls is at his rate on the right of the PS, like Bockel before him.

What is great to see is results among far-leftists (dont' know the sample):
DSK 19 (tout de même !), Aubry only 29, Royal 23, Hollande 16

Among Besancenot voters in 2007:
DSK 32 (amazing !), Aubry 21, Royal 17, Hollande 20

Among Front de Gauche partisans (teah... the sample may be pretty tiny...):
DSK 27, Aubry 21 (lol), Royal 17, Hollande 20

Among Greens:
DSK 41, Aubry 15, Royal 12 (lol), Hollande 14



Now, if DSK isn't candidate:
Aubry 30 (-7), Hollande 30 (+10), Royal 21 (-1), Montebourg 9 (-1), Valls 8 (+1) among leftists.
THIS is very interesting !

Among socialists: Aubry 34 (-3), Hollande 30 (+7), Royal 25 (+3), Valls 6 (-1), Montebourg 4 (-4)



If Aubry isn't candidate,
among leftists: DSK 46, Hollande 21, Royal 20, Montebourg 7, Valls 4
among socialists: DSK 54 (geez !), Hollande 18, Royal 22, Montebourg 3, Valls 2



Pretty clear, eh ?
It was after "DSK tour in Paris". Of course, it's before Aubry's latest mediatic moves since last Monday, but she is already criticized for stealing the PS project for herself.

DSK are Hollande live with journalists: it always helps ;).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 05, 2011, 12:35:43 PM
BFM poll which has people talking:

Le Pen (FN) 23%
Aubry (PS) 21%
Sarkozy (UMP) 21%
Bayrou (MoDem) 8%
Joly (EELV) 7%
Villepin (RS) 7%


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 05, 2011, 12:38:16 PM
BFM poll which has people talking:

Le Pen (FN) 23%
Aubry (PS) 21%
Sarkozy (UMP) 21%
Bayrou (MoDem) 8%
Joly (EELV) 7%
Villepin (RS) 7%

Just wanted to post this ... ;)

This was done by Harris Interactive, so I guess this is an Internet poll ?

Did they also poll the 2nd round (couldn't find anything) ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 05, 2011, 01:00:06 PM
Not that I want it, but it would be somehow funny if Palin wins in the US in 2012, Le Pen wins in France in 2012 and Strache in Austria in 2013 ... :P

(The only one with real chances though is Strache)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: tpfkaw on March 05, 2011, 01:03:20 PM
I doubt that someone like Le Pen would ever be able to get anywhere near 23% in the US...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on March 05, 2011, 01:25:38 PM
I doubt that someone like Le Pen would ever be able to get anywhere near 23% in the US...

uhm... George Wallace carried the entire south,.....


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 05, 2011, 01:35:36 PM
I doubt that someone like Le Pen would ever be able to get anywhere near 23% in the US...

uhm... George Wallace carried the entire south,.....


Not the entire south, only 4 States plus he only got 14% of the vote while doing so.  He might have gotten 23% or more in 1968 if we had a two round system like France, but we don't have such a system and it isn't 1968.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 05, 2011, 01:44:12 PM
No trolling please. Everyone play nice. Diolch, diolch.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: tpfkaw on March 05, 2011, 01:55:24 PM
I doubt that someone like Le Pen would ever be able to get anywhere near 23% in the US...

uhm... George Wallace carried the entire south,.....


Not the entire south, only 4 States plus he only got 14% of the vote while doing so.  He might have gotten 23% or more in 1968 if we had a two round system like France, but we don't have such a system and it isn't 1968.

This, and I mean in the year 2011, obviously.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 05, 2011, 03:53:10 PM
No trolling please. Everyone play nice. Diolch, diolch.

^^^

If this thread derails, I'll lock it.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on March 05, 2011, 06:43:13 PM
The form of fascism represented by Le Pen has always been stronger in Europe than in the US. There's a reason, after all, for why Hitler was European.

This is especially striking, imo, once you consider that the racism of the US was a product of having a huge black slave population for a long time. Give us in Europe the tiniest number of Jews or Muslims and the torches come out. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 05, 2011, 06:47:28 PM
The form of fascism represented by Le Pen has always been stronger in Europe than in the US. There's a reason, after all, for why Hitler was European.

This is especially striking, imo, once you consider that the racism of the US was a product of having a huge black slave population for a long time. Give us in Europe the tiniest number of Jews or Muslims and the torches come out. ;)

Exactly. Europeans, from East to West, are more racist than Americans, it's just that Americans (more generally Southerners) are stereotypically racist. Racial profiling and all that since 9/11 hasn't helped the American image either.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 05, 2011, 07:16:20 PM
Eugh.
Quote
Coup de tonnerre sur la présidentielle ? Selon un sondage réalisé par l'institut Harris Interactive pour «le Parisien» -«Aujourd'hui en France» à paraître ce dimanche, Marine Le Pen arrive en tête des intentions de vote au premier tour de la présidentielle avec 23%. Elle devance Nicolas Sarkozy et Martine Aubry, crédités tous deux de  21%.

Quote
A thunder strike in the presidential election? According to a survey released on Sunday by Harris Interactive for "Le Parisien"/"France Today", Marine Le Pen leads voting intentions for the first round of the presidential election, with 23%. She leads Nicolas Sarkozy and Martine Aubry, both credited with 21%.

Again, eugh.

http://www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/sondage-marine-le-pen-en-tete-au-premier-tour-de-la-presidentielle-05-03-2011-1344656.php


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 05, 2011, 07:31:11 PM
I wrote this elsewhere, but:

It's probably a publicity stunt for Le Parisien, which isn't exactly a newspaper for intellectuals. Harris, iirc, polls online (and God knows the FN is well represented on teh interwebs) and it's by consequence a crappy pollster which polls when they're paid to do so. They probably deliberately attempted to frame the poll to get some ZOMGZ results, like polling only Aubry. It is still the first poll to place the far-right ahead of everybody else, but unlike most of the French media/world I won't go into mass-panic mode.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 06, 2011, 05:01:39 AM
While you're certainly right, that's still pretty damn scary.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2011, 09:55:20 AM
Will this hurt the government? (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/06/jacques-chirac-french-president-trial_n_831931.html)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 06, 2011, 10:28:48 AM
Will this hurt the government? (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/06/jacques-chirac-french-president-trial_n_831931.html)

Absolutely not. People know since decades that Chirac is a corrupt trash, yet they still love him. And in no way people connect Chirac to the current government, to the contrary you will notice Chirac's approval ratings are basically the negative of Sarkozy's.

If any, the government's defeat could hurt Chirac. ;D But even this is doubtful.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2011, 10:39:01 AM
Will this hurt the government? (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/06/jacques-chirac-french-president-trial_n_831931.html)

Absolutely not. People know since decades that Chirac is a corrupt trash, yet they still love him. And in no way people connect Chirac to the current government, to the contrary you will notice Chirac's approval ratings are basically the negative of Sarkozy's.

If any, the government's defeat could hurt Chirac. ;D But even this is doubtful.

Ohhh, I see.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 06, 2011, 11:59:00 AM
Harris is polling only online, with samples that can be under 800.

They've got a quota method applied only to gender, age, socio-professional class and size of city of residence. Not with past voting, not with partisan preference, not with regional residence.

And their political polling history is poor. Even CSA is now able to put almost rational "corrections" in their results.
(and of course, Hash is right on Le Parisien)

What is true is that
- Sarkozy is slowly declining (he has a double-negative momentum: if he says something on immigration, centre-rightists flee towards DSK or Hollande; if he says something more moderate, Le Pen says he is betraying his 2007 promises to popular voters),

- Aubry is a weak candidate (please read the detailed numbers I've posted on previous page ;D),

- "Panzergirl" hasn't the under-valuation that her father had; I even think she has a slight over-valuation, because people may use her name to "protest" through opinion polls: it's not a shame to say her name (even more by clicking behind a screen).

And remember she has a tremendous media coverage, that is almost indecent. She's everywhere and on every subject, even in leftist medias. As though medias unconsciously think they should compensate for the fact they mostly boycott her father for so long.

So, no panic-mode after the French Zogby has polled ;).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 06, 2011, 03:39:38 PM
Le Pen (FN) 23%
Aubry (PS) 21%
Sarkozy (UMP) 21%
Bayrou (MoDem) 8%
Joly (EELV) 7%
Villepin (RS) 7%

To be complete:
Mélenchon 5%
Besancenot 5%
Arthaud 1%
(and well, these "only" 11 points for the whole far left may also explain why Panzergirl is so high)
Morin 1% (when will he drop this idea to be candidate ?)
Dupont-Aignan 1%

And now Harris is announcing it will do another 2 polls: one with DSK as socialist candidate and one with Hollande.
Panzergirl is the winner of the day, but Aubry may well be the loser of the week to come ;).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on March 06, 2011, 10:26:08 PM
I would enjoy seeing a second round vote between DSK and LePen with Sarko knocked out after the first round. I guess the only question in that scenario is whether DSK gets 75% or 80%.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 07, 2011, 08:22:26 AM
I would enjoy seeing a second round vote between DSK and LePen with Sarko knocked out after the first round. I guess the only question in that scenario is whether DSK gets 75% or 80%.

My fear is that a lot of right-wingers would be more encline to vote for a far-rightist than for a moderate social-democrat like Strauss Khan. I don't know how much of them would, but my guts say DSK could very well fall below 70% in your scenario.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 07, 2011, 11:02:01 AM
I would enjoy seeing a second round vote between DSK and LePen with Sarko knocked out after the first round. I guess the only question in that scenario is whether DSK gets 75% or 80%.

My fear is that a lot of right-wingers would be more encline to vote for a far-rightist than for a moderate social-democrat like Strauss Khan. I don't know how much of them would, but my guts say DSK could very well fall below 70% in your scenario.

I don't agree with you, Antonio.
Hate or disappointment towards Sarkozy is very high even on the right and when DSK is tested in place of Aubry or Hollande, DSK steals votes mainly in... Sarkozy voters !
Of course, the process can be partially indirect, through Borloo, Bayrou, Hulot or other candidates, but, still, this is the main change.

And all the Sarkozy voters who are potential voters for the far-right are... already gone, now ;) !

On the contrary, you may have some 3-4% from the far-left going to Panzergirl.
With an additional 3-4% from Sarkozy, Dupont-Aignan and... Bayrou, she would be at 30%, sure, but not at 35% or even 33%.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 07, 2011, 02:41:40 PM
Yeah, that seems accurate. Though I wouldn't be as categorical as you are. As I said, that's mostly a guts issue.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 07, 2011, 04:52:38 PM
Harris polls with other socialist candidates:

Le Pen 24, DSK 23, Sarkozy 21 20 (fixed: some medias were wrong)
Le Pen 24, Sarkozy 21, Hollande 20
Le Pen 23, Sarkozy 21, Aubry 21


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 07, 2011, 05:01:19 PM

Merde.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 07, 2011, 09:50:42 PM
Montebourg ought to be nominated because Hashemite would provide plenty of amusement in that case.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 08, 2011, 06:23:02 AM
To be complete:

Marine Le Pen: 23 / 24 / 24
Nicolas Sarkozy: 21 / 21 / 20
Martine Aubry: 21 / François Hollande: 20 / DSK: 23
Eva Joly: 7 / 7 / 7
Dominique de Villepin: 7 / 5 / 4
François Bayrou: 8 / 8 / 6
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 5 / 6 / 7
Olivier Besancenot: 5 / 6 / 6
Nathalie Arthaud: 1 / 1 / 1
Hervé Morin: 1 / 1 / 1
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan: 1 / 1 / 1

The sample of the first one is 1618 and quotas have been applied also along 2007 votes. So, its better than expected :P.

Of course, we must keep in mind it's an Internet poll (always easier to click than explicitly pronounce the syllabs LE-PEN)
and that Harris keeps applying the "Jean-Marie Le Pen" correction of about 2%.
Don't forget that Jean-Daniel Lévy (director of "opinion" department in Harris Interactive) had the same role inside CSA some years ago: he was also responsible for Bayrou ahead of Royal in 2007 ;).... and for some highly controversial polls with JM Le Pen higher than from every other pollster.

Add a margin of error of 2-3%, of course, and she can be ahead easily...

But, of course, we must acknowledge that the different results for the far-left, for Villepin and for Bayrou are really logical in the 3 hypotheses (too logical ? I mean, other pollsters have DSK stealing votes not so much from Villepin or Bayrou but from Sarkozy !).
So, it could really mean that Sarkozy and Besancenot have indeed lost potential voters in favour of Marine Le Pen...

When I've said 2011 would be far more interesting than 2012... ;)

Cantonales will be fascinating in a way.
Because, if turnout is low, the new threshold to be in the second round will act as a FN-killer and as a "bipolarizer".

But if turnout is VERY low, the FN may be able to kill the right (in North of France, between Montpellier and Marseille or around Lyon) or the left (in inner Provence and Côte d'Azur or along north-eastern borders) and then to grasp some cantons in the second round...

It will be interesting in Ain, Vaucluse, Moselle, Seine-et-Marne, Rhône, Loire and even Pyrénées-Orientales or Drôme !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 08, 2011, 07:09:06 AM
Well, if we follow your numbers about the margins of error and the correction, we still get Le Pen at 18-19% at the very least. Which is, IMO, pretty damn scary.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 08, 2011, 05:10:17 PM
Oh yes, sure !
But it wouldn't put her in the second round.

It seems IFOP only make a 1 point correction.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 08, 2011, 05:11:30 PM
But it wouldn't put her in the second round.

Until she picks up a few more points, and/or "official" candidates lose a few more points.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 08, 2011, 05:14:44 PM
But it wouldn't put her in the second round.

Until she picks up a few more points, and/or "official" candidates lose a few more points.

My nightmare: Aubry is the PS candidate and Sarko is ousted in the first round...
Forced to vote for Aubry !!!! GASP !!!! :( ;)
DSK, Hollande, even Royal (err... maybe because I know she can't be candidate ;)) would make me less sick.

BTW, pollsters seem to have dropped Royal as a possibility in the options they are testing... how hilarious !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on March 09, 2011, 05:04:27 AM
Since it is not totally unrelated to this "poll", the CREDOC just released an interesting paper  (http://www.credoc.fr/pdf/Rech/C273.pdf) about bias in online polls (in French, btw).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 10, 2011, 06:35:05 AM
Back to serious business with an IFOP poll for France-Soir (done on 7th to 9th of March; sample: 1046)

Marine Le Pen again on the rise, but onyl Royal (LOL) is unable to beat her in the 1st round.

Sarkozy 24 / 23 / 24 / 24
Aubry 24 / DSK 29 / Hollande 23 / Royal 19
Le Pen 22 / 21 / 22 / 22
Bayrou 7 / 6 / 7.5 / 8
Morin 1.5 / 1 / 2 / 2
Villepin 4.5 / 3 / 4 / 5
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1.5 / 1 / 1
Joly 6 / 5.5 / 6.5 / 7
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 5 / 6
Besancenot 4 / 4 / 4 / 5
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1 / 1

At last, Besancenot is sliding under 5%.

BUT it seems to benefit to Panzergirl, as I've already said. When you look at the internal numbers of this poll, she indeed grasps a small number of far-left voters.
And she of course wins back many voters stolen by Sarkozy in 2007.

What is amazing is that, whatever the hypothesis, she is at 37-38% in BOTH categories of workers and employees.

Villepin is more in line with usual numbers. He was really high in Harris Interactive now famous poll.
DSK logically steals voters from Bayrou and Joly, but also from Villepin.

Hollande is almost on a par with Aubry. DSK remains higher, but all the other (Sarkozy, Aubry, Hollande are really threatened by Panzergirl.

One positive side in this: the sooner Panzergirl peaks, the sooner and the more she will go down...
Or not ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 10, 2011, 09:00:13 AM
Thankfully Ifop restores some semblance of sanity. OK, 21% for Daddy's girl is high, but at least she isn't ahead. But perhaps it's good Daddy's girl is peaking this early, given that it might give her more time to come down. And about time Besancenot is coming down. What an overrated snot-nosed opportunistic sh**t.

lol @ Segolene Royal-Palin


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 10, 2011, 12:11:39 PM
This poll actually scares me more than the previous one. So she really is 2 points short of getting in.

One positive side in this: the sooner Panzergirl peaks, the sooner and the more she will go down...
Or not ?

You can't say it's a peak until the numbrers start decreasing...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 10, 2011, 12:26:53 PM
Here's a question for the end-is-nigh mass panickers: who led in polls in 1980, 1987, 1994, 2001 and 2006?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 10, 2011, 12:28:06 PM
Here's a question for the end-is-nigh mass panickers: who led in polls in 1980, 1987, 1994, 2001 and 2006?

Not the FN. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 13, 2011, 08:45:01 AM
CSA for La Dépêche du Midi, 9-10 March, sample: 853

No other detail for the moment than the "big 3".

Sarkozy 19 / 24 / 24 / 24
DSK 30 / Aubry 22 / Royal 19 / Hollande 18
Le Pen 21 / 23 / 22 / 22

So, Panzergirl is always on the second round.
And only DSK qualifies.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on March 13, 2011, 09:31:09 AM
CSA for La Dépêche du Midi, 9-10 March, sample: 853

No other detail for the moment than the "big 3".

Sarkozy 19 / 24 / 24 / 24
DSK 30 / Aubry 22 / Royal 19 / Hollande 18
Le Pen 21 / 23 / 22 / 22

So, Panzergirl is always on the second round.
And only DSK qualifies.

SO, there's a real opportunity for a 2nd round with two homophobic candidates =(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 13, 2011, 09:42:44 AM
All right. Now it's time to start praying for Strauss-Khan.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 13, 2011, 12:25:42 PM
All right. Now it's time to start praying for Strauss-Khan.

It will be interesting to see the internals, as CSA is a bit better than it was in 2007.
The only number I've read for the moment is that, among retirees, DSK is at 34% against 30% for Sarkozy.

This is the real winning strategy for the PS now: fighting Sarkozy directly, in its own backyard.
And this, Aubry is unable to do.

The PS has to keep on this double negative momentum for Sarkozy, who is eaten from the right and from the centre and the centre-right.
Whatever he says or does, he loses on the far-right or on the centre-right. This is avicious circle only DSK is able to feed.

Of course, all this is really far away from the election and I hope all the "Truth and Cleanness Gods" (Mediapart, Rue89 et alii) will begin to dig in Le Pen more than in Sarkozy past.

But with some "breakings" to come probably on Karachi, Balladur 1995 campaign, Longuet's past, Elysee private polls or anything else, it is likely that Panzergirl will remain high for the months to come, though with a possible little decrease after the cantonales elections.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2011, 03:02:51 PM
Don't know whether I should be scared at this sh**t or whether I should laugh at CSA considering their wonderful track record.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 13, 2011, 03:35:01 PM
Don't know whether I should be scared at this sh**t or whether I should laugh at CSA considering their wonderful track record.

They are better for about 2 years. Maybe because Jean-Daniel Lévy has joined Harris Interactive :P.

And, TBH, this poll is pretty in line with IFOP one.
But, of course, there may be some suivisme in all the pollsters...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on March 13, 2011, 09:49:40 PM

SO, there's a real opportunity for a 2nd round with two homophobic candidates =(

So who is "homophobic" apart from LePen?

BTW: IF a year from now we are in the final days of the campaign and the polls show a three-way dead heat in the first round  I wonder how much "strategic voting" might ensue by people on the right and the left to make sure there is no repeat of 2002. I mean if the polls were showing DSK, Sarko and LePen each at 23% - wouldn't there be enormous pressure on people thinking of voting for various minor rightwing and centre-right candidates like Bayrou and Villepin etc...to instead vote for Sarkozy to ensure that there is not a DSK vs. LePen second round? and conversely, i have to think that a lot of people thinking of voting for any of that plethora of minor leftwing and green candidates for President in the first round might instead vote for DSK to ensure that they don't do to DSK what they did to Jospin in 2002 and end up with a Sarkozy vs. LePen second round?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 14, 2011, 05:12:42 AM
Of course, there will be vote utile ("useful vote") if there is a dead heat with Marine Le Pen (my own Boutin vote is threatened ;D).

But the problem is that it may be not enough.
And polls are forbidden on Saturday and Sunday (polling day). No useful poll can be done and largely published after the Thursday, in fact.
In 2002, that was in the very last days that Jean-Marie Le Pen  has beaten Jospin (confidential polls have measured this, but it was too late to make it public).

In the end, between Jospin and Jean-Marie Le Pen, there was less than 1%.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 14, 2011, 07:06:49 AM
SO, there's a real opportunity for a 2nd round with two homophobic candidates =(

???
Sarkozy has many defects, but I fail to see what could make you think he is homophobe.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 14, 2011, 08:12:10 AM
CSA for La Dépêche du Midi, 9-10 March, sample: 853

No other detail for the moment than the "big 3".

Sarkozy 19 / 24 / 24 / 24
DSK 30 / Aubry 22 / Royal 19 / Hollande 18
Le Pen 21 / 23 / 22 / 22

So, Panzergirl is always on the second round.
And only DSK qualifies.

Unfortunately, no sociological data, but, at least, the details of 1st rounds:

Sarkozy 19 / 24 / 24 / 24
DSK 30 / Aubry 22 / Royal 19 / Hollande 18
Le Pen 21 / 23 / 22 / 22
Bayrou 5 / 6 / 7 / 8
Villepin 4 / 6 / 6 / 7
Morin 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Joly 4 / 3 / 6 / 5
Mélenchon 6 / 5 / 5 / 5
Besancenot 8 / 8 / 8 / 8
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1 / 1

Well, in line with IFOP for the big 3, but not for some smaller candidates.
Joly is low, Besancenot is, again, high (sigh...).
Mélenchon, Bayrou and Villepin are more in the general trend.

Villepin numbers (combined with Sarkozy's) show again how DSK steals votes directly from the right (and from Joly and Bayrou, of course), without losing almost any point to the "left of the left".

What will be interesting now:
1. How cantonales results will impact on Panzergirl:
- whether the FN remains without any elected candidate and it's seen as a failure in the "momentum" or its "victimization" and "anti-establishment" line is revived,
or if the FN has some elected candidates or forces PS and UMP in a mess over "republican front" themes in the second round

2. How cantonales results will impact on Aubry and Hollande, boosting only one of them (Hollande benefiting from a Royal-like effect, as after 2004 regionales; Aubry being seen as the builder behind another 4 or 5 departments conquered) or boosting both of them and hence neutralizing any effect, relative to DSK

3. How Fukushima and other nuclear sites in Japan will affect Green support; TBH, Joly isn't heard on this (as on anything), but take a look at Hulot: when he'll be in the race, he'll have medias for him; his rise may well affect any socialist candidate; but I think he will grasp votes more on weak candidates rather than on DSK strong position;
of course, this is my guess, you can say exactly the opposite, considering DSK has a more centrist position and Hulot may well be a substitute for centre-right voters, fed up with Sarkozy, having currently their small "lovefest" with DSK and ready to go towards Hulot, the "ideal son-in-law"

3b. In case of Hulot's designation by Greens, how will Borloo's "dance" will impact on its candidature; probably not much, given Borloo's utter failure in polls for the moment. Anyway, it can only be positive for DSK, as Borloo may now weaken Sarkozy a little bit more and would minimize Hulot's bubble

4. How socialist project will affect socialist candidates; I really think that what is supposed to support Aubry will kill her;
any political plan nowadays is seen as unreadable, uninteresting, unrealistic, etc.
If DSK has survived his silence so far, his Paris journey, Panzergirl's rise, attacks from the "left of the left", so-called Green rise, he'll be able to survive Aubry's small moves.
Aubry is probably positioning herself for Matignon.

I really think 2011 will be far more interesting than 2012 ;).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 14, 2011, 08:16:26 AM
Besancenot at 8% ? I fail to see how this is possible.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on March 14, 2011, 04:31:03 PM
The PS has to keep on this double negative momentum for Sarkozy, who is eaten from the right and from the centre and the centre-right.
Whatever he says or does, he loses on the far-right or on the centre-right. This is avicious circle only DSK is able to feed.

I agree with the general idea but I fail to see why only DSK would be able to benefit from this phenomenon since it's seems to be a structural trend since 2007. Sarkozy was elected despite losing some centre and centre-right voters just because his successful offensive againt Le Pen more than made up for these losses. But since then, the shift of the centrist voters towards the left has continued (Bayrou has been utterly unable to keep them, and a majority of them voted for EELV in 2009 and 2010) and the revival of the FN, which was pretty clear during the régionales elections is now self-evident...

It puts Sarkozy and his majority under pressure on two fronts, and their reaction since last summer, marked by a radicalization of the UMP's view on immigration and crime was an evidence they quickly understood the danger. But it's a lose-lose situation since it is incompatible with regaigning the centrist electorate, which is leaning strongly towards the left on these cultural issues.

Basically, I'm pretty sure Sarkozy will lose badly in 2012 (very badly if he moves to the centre since he will have to compete against the socialist candidate, probably less badly if he continues this far right drift and is qualified for the runoff), and I fail to see how he could have avoided this situation since it was written on his 2007 electoral strategy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 14, 2011, 05:03:31 PM
- Because DSK is moderate enough to grasp directly centre-right voters, "real" former UDF (don't make a confusion with Bayrou and the MoDem: they weren't and aren't the real UDF).

These centre-right voters voted for Sarkozy in 2007. Not all of them but a big slice.
Now, they have entirely fled Sarkozy.

These voters, Aubry (Mrs. "35 hours") or Royal (Mrs. Madness) are unable to appeal to them.

Hollande may be able to, one day, but he has a bad image among them because of his long tenure as "chief apparatchik" of the PS. And he is obliged not to go too far on the right, like DSK or Valls, because his only chance is to gather the centre and the left of the PS, in case he is alone against DSK.

- In 2007, that was Sarkozy who put the pressure on 2 fronts: reformism, "values" for the centre-right, security and "labour" for the popular vote and the extreme-right.

Now, he is the one under pressure from both fronts.

He should have dropped his 2007 strategy in ... 2009, when FN results showed it wasn't dead. It's indeed too late now.
Sarkozy should pray Aubry is the socialist candidate, he pushes her towards the left by taking a European stance and letting Panzergirl gain on the right, to hope making it to the 2nd round against Marine Le Pen... :P
A bit dangerous... ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on March 14, 2011, 05:44:50 PM
Wow, I'm really sorry people. I wanted to say xenophobic, not homophobic haha....


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on March 15, 2011, 12:23:11 PM
- Because DSK is moderate enough to grasp directly centre-right voters, "real" former UDF (don't make a confusion with Bayrou and the MoDem: they weren't and aren't the real UDF).

These centre-right voters voted for Sarkozy in 2007. Not all of them but a big slice.
Now, they have entirely fled Sarkozy.

Well, if you're talking about the parties I can’t more agree with you but concerning the voters, if you have a look at the election results, I fail to see were the MoDem and even some Green voters come from if not from the right.

And no matter of the socialist candidate (Ségolène is certainly a little bit different...), I just can't imagine the centre and centre-right voters choosing Sarkozy in the same proportion than in 2007 since he moves so far on the right, and I think those FN voters who voted for him in the first round will not be fooled two times in a row since Sarkozy is politically unable to deliver the Nazi policies they want.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 15, 2011, 04:38:42 PM
2007 MoDem voters were a bit from the UDF, a bit from the centre-left ("moving" voters between Greens, PRG, PS), a big bit from the abstention and a small bit from... Le Pen (the anti-establishement theme was also one of Bayrou in 2007).

As for REAL centre-right voters (traditional Giscard, Barre, Balladur voters), they weren't disgusted by Sarkozy in 2007. But, now, I agree with you, they are.
And many of them are ready to vote for DSK as soon as in the 1st round.

I was just imagining that Sarkozy could have tried to rally them, because popular voters he stole from the FN in 2007 won't vote for him, I agree.
Of course, it's now too late for Sarkozy to try to solidify the centre-right, while considering the far right is already lost...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 15, 2011, 06:08:12 PM
Viavoice poll for Liberation (10-12 March, sample 1007)

Wishes of victory:
DSK 46
Hollande 27
Aubry 27
Fillon 26
Sarkozy 22
Villepin 21 (ugh)
Le Pen 19 (this is a very interesting result: she is at her maximum here)

Forecasts of victory:
DSK 67
Sarkozy 41 (he must find a clue... there is something here... not so bad)
Aubry 33
Le Pen 30 (LOL)
Fillon 29


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 16, 2011, 03:24:02 AM
IPSOS for Le Monde & Europe 1 (14 March, sample 948)

Remember this was the best pollster in 2007 (and since then), with a slight Sarkozy advantage (but Pierre Giacometti joined him soon after 2007 ;D): maybe it's now completely neutral...

Very bad results for Sarkozy, whose fall seems to be unstoppable. He is at "chiraquian" levels, now !

DSK 33 / Aubry 23 / Hollande 23 / Royal 17
Le Pen 19 / 21 / 21 / 21
Sarkozy 18 / 21 / 21 / 21
Bayrou 5 / 8 / 8 / 10
Joly 5 / 5 / 5 / 7
Besancenot 6 / 6 / 7 / 7
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 5 / 6
Arthaud 2 / 2 / 2 / 2
Villepin 5 / 7 / 6 / 7
Morin 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1

Again, DSK is the only one to grasp votes from Sarkozy, Villepin and Bayrou in a significant way.
This is his strength.

Of course, this may be his weakness once he is candidate, as he will be seen as another traditional socialist and so will lose part of his lead.
But if he is accepted as the main candidate before his fall in polls, it's OK for him inside the party: he will have put aside Aubry, who has no specific personal advantage ;).

Therefore Hollande doesn't want to drop. He has a chance of being almost on a par with DSK in polls after July and of being more acceptable to leftists who will vote in the primary election.

And, of course, Royal is out :D.

Oh, another interesting data: "can your choice change ?"
With DSK: no 56 yes 44
Aubry: no 50 yes 50
Hollande: no 49 yes 51
Royal no 47 yes 53
Of course, you can say one thing and its opposite for each result (when it's DSK, the others are so low that their "voters" are sure of them... or when it's Royal, she is low but can in fact gain many other votes... but still)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 16, 2011, 03:30:03 AM
I suggest DSK pick TAIO Cruz & Kylie Minogue's "song", HIGHER, as an official hymn:
it could give him a dancing and young image ;) :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 16, 2011, 08:41:28 AM
I don't want to put IPSOS poll on the previous page already: it's the important one today.

But, still, a BVA poll for Le Nouvel Observateur (to be published tomorrow) (11-12 March, sample 975) on the preferred candidate for the right:

Among French voters, Fillon has 50%, against 22% for Sarkozy and 28% without opinion.
Among rightist voters, Fillon has 53%, against 47% for Sarkozy.
Among UMP voters, Fillon has 45%, against 55% for Sarkozy.

Among French voters, Juppé has 48%, against 25% for Sarkozy and 27% without opinion.
Among rightist voters, Juppé has 48%, against 52% for Sarkozy.
Among UMP voters, Juppé has 43%, against 57% for Sarkozy.

(for this last number, I even think many UMPers doubt Juppé's chances even more than Sarkozy's ones; otherwise, Juppé would be up)

Something is broken for Sarkozy on the right.
He has probably a way to come back, but hasn't found it yet.



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2011, 04:21:08 PM
DSK 33 / Aubry 23 / Hollande 23 / Royal 17
Le Pen 19 / 21 / 21 / 21
Sarkozy 18 / 21 / 21 / 21
Bayrou 5 / 8 / 8 / 10
Joly 5 / 5 / 5 / 7
Besancenot 6 / 6 / 7 / 7
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 5 / 6
Arthaud 2 / 2 / 2 / 2
Villepin 5 / 7 / 6 / 7
Morin 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1

Wow, the PS candidates (except the Mad One) lead the 1st round. :)

I of course don't wish it happens, but I couldn't restrain some satisfaction if we see a reversal of 2002 with Sarkozy out. An eye for an eye. ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 16, 2011, 05:09:16 PM
Retaliation is a sin ;).
Honestly, only DSK is safe. So, it's threatening for everybody.

Really, Panzergirl peaks far too early. There will be a backlash.
Let's hope it won't be a backlash and then a comeback for her just in time for the 22nd April of 2012 :P.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 17, 2011, 08:07:39 AM

See, life is much easier when you aren't a christian. ;D

But anyways that's by no way what I wish, don't take me wrong. Le Pen doesn't deserve half of his father's 1974 score.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on March 17, 2011, 08:51:35 PM

See, life is much easier when you aren't a christian. ;D

But the afterlife is not. 0:)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on March 19, 2011, 07:50:13 PM
If Le Pen manages to make it to the second round, would she be able to improve upon her father's result in 2002?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 20, 2011, 03:39:09 AM
Almost certainly, yeah. Actually, she is likely to break his father's record whether or not she is actually qualified, mostly due to less vote split.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Umengus on March 20, 2011, 04:24:45 PM
oh my god, Brice teinturier, the (ex) sofres guy, is now at.. ipsos !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 20, 2011, 04:37:32 PM
The afterlife is much easier when it doesn't exist.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 28, 2011, 03:52:30 AM
IPSOS poll for France Télévisions, 25-26 March, sample 965

DSK / Aubry / Hollande / Royal
34 / 25 / 23 / 17
Sarkozy
17 / 20 / 21 / 20
Marion "Marine" Le Pen
21 / 22 / 22 / 22

Villepin
5 / 8 / 8 / 9
Morin
1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan
1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Bayrou
5 / 7 / 7 / 8
Joly
5 / 5 / 5 / 7
Mélenchon
4 / 4 / 5 / 6
Besancenot
6 / 6 / 6 / 7
Arthaud
1 / 1 / 1 / 2

Disappointing for Mélenchon and for... Sarkozy, which isn't beaten only in one case: with Royal as PS candidate...

Compared with the previous poll from IPSOS, it is confirmed that Panzergirl wins voters both from Sarkozy and from the far-left.

Again, DSK is strong, because he doesn't lose points to the far-left or to the Greens, but is able to steal votes from centre, centre-right and right.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 28, 2011, 01:17:14 PM
So yeah, that's it. Either DSK or it's a coin toss for the PS. On other circumstances a gamble could have been possible, but not after 5 years of Sarkozy. So my choice is made.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 29, 2011, 01:06:23 PM
A BVA poll, very close to IPSOS for the first 3, but with other candidates tested

(25-26 March, for L'Express and France Inter, 826 RV among a total sample of 982)

DSK / Aubry 29 / 24
Sarkozy 17 / 19
Le Pen 19 / 20
Villepin 6 / 7
Borloo 5 / 6
Bayrou 4 / 5
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 0.5
Hulot 7 / 8
Mélenchon 4 / 4
Besancenot 7 / 6
Arthaud 1 / 0.5

Of course, there is Borloo AND Villepin, which is probably bad for Sarkozy.
And this proves also that, without Villepin and with Borloo, Sarkozy would be able to qualify (just) AND hurt a little bit the Socialist candidate and Bayrou.

Borloo seems to be bad also for DSK.

Hulot is about 2 points above Joly.
Mélenchon is really down. Besancenot still stupidly high.

Poor Hollande, he is not tested (I don't even speak of Royal).

I'm looking forward hypothesis with Fillon and... Juppé, that would be fun.

But, of course, leftist medias wouldn't be interested if they polled better than Sarkozy ;).
And rightist medias would be afraid of Sarkozy's anger ;).
True, the only poll which tested Fillon and Copé was very bad for these ones, but it was some months ago.... A century ago... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 04, 2011, 02:18:15 AM
IFOP poll for France-Soir, 31 March-1 April
sample 577 left voters and 247 socialist voters, among a total sample of 1016

(with results from previous polls of 10-11 February and 24-25 February)

among left voters:
DSK 43 / 40 / 37
Hollande 11 / 15 / 22
Aubry 24 / 17 / 18
Royal 12 / 17 / 12
Montebourg 3 / 4 / 5
Valls 4 / 4 / 3

among socialist voters:
DSK 46 / 49 / 41
Hollande 11 / 15 / 25
Aubry 22 / 15 / 15
Royal 14 / 19 / 9
Montebourg 3 / - / 6
Valls 2 / 2 / 3

Of course, Hollande's surge is the big story. Aubry is really low, especially among socialist voters. The only interesting result for her is that, no surprisingly, Hollande and DSK are strong among the same constituencies: upper classes, old people.
But Hollande is stronger among Mélenchon and communist voters: this is why he is a very good momentum: he may be able to kill Aubry first and then would be supported by all the left against the "horrible liberal capitalist" DSK (by default).

(and when Royal will be below Montebourg ? LOL !)

Of course, the sample are tiny, but socialist leaders (and voters) have no other reference...
And what is important is the trend, not the absolute result.



Harris Interactive for Le Parisien, 29-31 March
sample of 594 right voters (no other precision)


Do you support a candidacy from this guy ?

among right voters:
Fillon 57
Sarkozy 54
Juppé 41
Borloo 33
Villepin 29
Copé 22
Bertrand 15 (??? who has decided to include him ?)
Morin 15
Dupont-Aignan 12

among UMP voters:
Sarkozy 78
Fillon 70
Juppé 47
(no other number available for the moment)

Le Parisien says Sarkozy is unavoidable: well, given the fact that we are only in April, Fillon and even Juppé (but he is too low among young voters to hope big) aren't so badly positioned.
Borloo is more disappointing given (and despite) his cool media image.
Villepin has his best result among 18-35 years old right voters (and Dupont-Aignan too): ::)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Umengus on April 04, 2011, 01:09:28 PM
IFOP poll for France-Soir, 31 March-1 April
sample 577 left voters and 247 socialist voters, among a total sample of 1016

(with results from previous polls of 10-11 February and 24-25 February)

among left voters:
DSK 43 / 40 / 37
Hollande 11 / 15 / 22
Aubry 24 / 17 / 18
Royal 12 / 17 / 12
Montebourg 3 / 4 / 5
Valls 4 / 4 / 3

among socialist voters:
DSK 46 / 49 / 41
Hollande 11 / 15 / 25
Aubry 22 / 15 / 15
Royal 14 / 19 / 9
Montebourg 3 / - / 6
Valls 2 / 2 / 3

Of course, Hollande's surge is the big story. Aubry is really low, especially among socialist voters. The only interesting result for her is that, no surprisingly, Hollande and DSK are strong among the same constituencies: upper classes, old people.
But Hollande is stronger among Mélenchon and communist voters: this is why he is a very good momentum: he may be able to kill Aubry first and then would be supported by all the left against the "horrible liberal capitalist" DSK (by default).

(and when Royal will be below Montebourg ? LOL !)

Of course, the sample are tiny, but socialist leaders (and voters) have no other reference...
And what is important is the trend, not the absolute result.



Harris Interactive for Le Parisien, 29-31 March
sample of 594 right voters (no other precision)


Do you support a candidacy from this guy ?

among right voters:
Fillon 57
Sarkozy 54
Juppé 41
Borloo 33
Villepin 29
Copé 22
Bertrand 15 (??? who has decided to include him ?)
Morin 15
Dupont-Aignan 12

among UMP voters:
Sarkozy 78
Fillon 70
Juppé 47
(no other number available for the moment)

Le Parisien says Sarkozy is unavoidable: well, given the fact that we are only in April, Fillon and even Juppé (but he is too low among young voters to hope big) aren't so badly positioned.
Borloo is more disappointing given (and despite) his cool media image.
Villepin has his best result among 18-35 years old right voters (and Dupont-Aignan too): ::)

Holland is a decent guy. Not very charismatic but competent


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bacon King on April 04, 2011, 01:20:06 PM
PS
Open primaries (a requirement to pay one euro and sign some stupid declaration of adherence to left-wing values) will be held on October 9 and 16.

Wait, so you have to pay to vote in the primary? That seems kind of... unsocialist.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 04, 2011, 01:41:17 PM
PS
Open primaries (a requirement to pay one euro and sign some stupid declaration of adherence to left-wing values) will be held on October 9 and 16.

Wait, so you have to pay to vote in the primary? That seems kind of... unsocialist.

The PS was in Obama-loving mood in 2008/2009 and decided to hold primaries... without ever understanding the uniqueness of American partisanship and how it allows primaries to work... So, I guess, in order to prevent the right-wingers from overrunning their beauty pageant primary, they decided to make people pay for it.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 05, 2011, 01:50:04 AM
PS
Open primaries (a requirement to pay one euro and sign some stupid declaration of adherence to left-wing values) will be held on October 9 and 16.

Wait, so you have to pay to vote in the primary? That seems kind of... unsocialist.

The PS was in Obama-loving mood in 2008/2009 and decided to hold primaries... without ever understanding the uniqueness of American partisanship and how it allows primaries to work... So, I guess, in order to prevent the right-wingers from overrunning their beauty pageant primary, they decided to make people pay for it.

For right-wingers who are fond of politics, of ANY politics, like me, the problem is more the "declaration of values" you'll have to sign before voting... :P
I could have paid one euro to vote for Royal, Pierret, Montebourg, Valls or Collomb ;D.

They expect voters in millions (1, 2, 3, they don't really know), but it will make a great amount money, considering the fact that French parties aren't so rich.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 05, 2011, 07:45:04 AM
IPSOS poll for Goomradio (don't ask me...), 28-30 March, sample 500 RV from 18 to 24 years old

DSK 30 / Aubry 14 / Hollande 10 / Royal 21
Le Pen 20 / 23 / 22 / 21
Sarkozy 14 / 16 / 18 / 16
Bayrou 12 / 15 / 16 / 13
Besancenot 11 / 15 / 14 / 13
Villepin 5 / 7 / 11 / 8
Arthaud 3 / 3 / 3 / 2
Joly 2 / 3 / 2 / 3
Mélenchon 1 / 2 / 2 / 2
Morin 1 / 1 / 1 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 0.5

Let me see : the French youth votes high for Le Pen, more for Royal, Bayrou, Besancenot, sometimes Villepin ?

I've always thought that, as we live longer, we should be given the right to vote... LATER, not earlier: so immature... ::)

No, when I was between 18 and 24 (1988-1994), I didn't want to vote for Le Pen, Tapie, Dufoix, Noir, Millon, Juquin or any other stupidity of the time...

and frankly, Royal, Marion "Marine" Le Pen, Bayrou, Besancenot and Villepin are far worse than the last 4 names...

Please listen again Pierre Desproges's Chronique de la haine ordinaire on youth...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 05, 2011, 07:55:22 AM
I've always thought that, as we live longer, we should be given the right to vote... LATER, not earlier: so immature... ::)

That's borderline insulting to youths with a brain, which is more than a few. In fact, if youths voted more heavily in Canada, for example, we probably wouldn't be as screwed up as we are thanks to the used car salesman from Calgary.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 05, 2011, 08:14:24 AM
I've always thought that, as we live longer, we should be given the right to vote... LATER, not earlier: so immature... ::)

That's borderline insulting to youths with a brain, which is more than a few. In fact, if youths voted more heavily in Canada, for example, we probably wouldn't be as screwed up as we are thanks to the used car salesman from Calgary.

Oh, I know, and that would have backfired against myself: I was SO eager to vote in 1988 :P !!!

Put this post in the category "it's already the campaign, I'm disgusted of all the stupidities the medias are saying, I'm disgusted this crap Aubry isn't politically dead yet, I'm disgusted of the free advertisements given to Marion Le Pen, I'm disgusted not even one leader from the right is able to be valuable in front of all this mess, etc, and so my hate boils over on the first opportunity" ;D

Still, when you see that some 18-24 years old switch from PS to Villepin when it's Hollande as a candidate, well.... (or even from PS to Besancenot or Bayrou when it's Aubry)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 05, 2011, 08:16:04 AM
I admit I feel pretty ashamed to be young after reading these numbers.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 05, 2011, 10:24:23 AM
I have to say this: I'd vote for Royal over DSK, Abry and Hollande... and I would think about voting Besancenot... but probably I would finally vote for whoever PS nominates.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 06, 2011, 04:37:09 AM
I have to say this: I'd vote for Royal over DSK, Abry and Hollande... and I would think about voting Besancenot... but probably I would finally vote for whoever PS nominates.

*facepalm*


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 06, 2011, 10:15:24 AM
I have to say this: I'd vote for Royal over DSK, Abry and Hollande... and I would think about voting Besancenot... but probably I would finally vote for whoever PS nominates.

*facepalm*

Yes, I know haha... I'm being honest with myself. I think Royal would make a good president


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 06, 2011, 10:58:32 AM
I have to say this: I'd vote for Royal over DSK, Abry and Hollande... and I would think about voting Besancenot... but probably I would finally vote for whoever PS nominates.

*facepalm*

Yes, I know haha... I'm being honest with myself. I think Royal would make a good president

You're insane.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 06, 2011, 12:31:55 PM
I have to say this: I'd vote for Royal over DSK, Abry and Hollande... and I would think about voting Besancenot... but probably I would finally vote for whoever PS nominates.

*facepalm*

Yes, I know haha... I'm being honest with myself. I think Royal would make a good president

You're insane.

I don't think so. I'm honest with myself. I could have not said nothing and you wouldn't have known I like Royal haha.. But I think she has guts ;) I like her!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 06, 2011, 12:59:09 PM
No, but seriously, Royal is an idiot. She is quite incompetent, with little positive record in her region aside from running the regional council like her personal fiefdom and pissing off other legislators. Her whole "look at me, i'm anti-system establishment populist" is crap because her backers include a number of prominent party bosses most notably the Godfather of the Bouches-du-Rhone PS. She might be disliked by the current party majority and her backers may be outside the first circle of the Politburo, but there's nothing gutsy or populist about her. She is also, of course, insane as we saw in 2008 where she seemed to be running for the leadership of some religious sect.

Her 2007 platform was also nonsensical in that it consisted of creating an unrealistic number of jobs, increasing the minimum wage by a huge amount and other populist fraud. But most PS policy is nonsensical rhetoric which they can't implement. Her campaign was also a whole jumble of attempts to gain support, be it by playing the nationalist card or acting like a psycho in the debate.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 06, 2011, 01:56:52 PM
Yeah, really. Julio, if you like Royal you have to learn more about her.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 07, 2011, 02:14:46 PM
Yeah, really. Julio, if you like Royal you have to learn more about her.

Yeah. Although I like her as a person, she's a total psycho who should never be allowed near office.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 08, 2011, 07:49:10 AM
So, from next week, polls will systematically include
Jean-Louis Borloo, because he has announced that the venerable Radical Party, will quit the UMP (it was an "associate" member),
and
Nicolas Hulot, because he will declare on Thursday,
as candidates.

As they are already forced to poll at least 3 options, with DSK, Aubry, Hollande, they won't lose time and money to poll 6 options with Hulot AND Joly or 12 options with AND without Borloo.

As a consequence, even if the situation is hypothetically better for Sarkozy, it will be bad for him, all the more that poll firms seem to be stuck to keep Villepin.

It won't be good for the Greens, as the 1 or 2 points Hulot is able to win on Bayrou or on the right, he will lose them towards the socialist. Worse, Borloo may be able to lessen their media impact, as Hulot but also Borloo are media favourites/puppies.

On the other hand, I'm not sure it'll be bad for DSK or Hollande, as Borloo and Hulot have already been tested, without much consequence for them.

Another collateral victim will probably be Bayrou (1 or 2 points are vital at this level...).



Will Borloo be eventually a candidate ?

Honestly, I don't know and he probably doesn't know himself.
It will depend on... polls, as usual.
If he has a small momentum and is able to pull a Barre-like summer or autumn surge, why not ?

For the moment, it is interesting to note that the centrists inside the UMP will follow him (Jégo, Daubresse, Paillé, Yade -LOL-) or are quiet (Méhaignerie).
Only Léonetti (but he is a Var deputy and he is still starving for a portfolio) explicitly warns against the risk of helping Marion "Marine" Le Pen.
I look forward to hearing from "La Droite Sociale" wing (Wauquiez) and from Méhaignerie himself. Also from some local satraps of the MoDem.

This is more bad news (now) for the right, but I can't help being happy to see political maneuvering ;D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 08, 2011, 09:51:55 AM
thanks for the explanation, hash. I don't like populism.. I don't know why I like Royal.. I could not answer you.. but I think she is a honest person.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 08, 2011, 12:10:51 PM
thanks for the explanation, hash. I don't like populism.. I don't know why I like Royal.. I could not answer you.. but I think she is a honest person.

I don't think anyone whose allies include the Guerini clan can be honest.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 08, 2011, 04:30:06 PM
Well, I was wrong about Daubresse.

Together with Leonetti and Méhaignerie, he has officially said he stuck to the UMP for the end of this legislature.
In the next Parliament, they are OK, but not until the presidential election....

This is not very good for Borloo if no big centrist of the UMP follows him (Yade isn't one, of course, and Jégo is already in the Radical Party, no longer int he mainstream UMP).
Of course, in medias, this subtle positionings have no importance, but it underlines the fact that this is not a new big UDF, for the moment.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 09, 2011, 06:28:01 AM
Borloo won't create anything consistent, certainly not a new UDF. The only things he can do is to split the right and weaken Sarkozy (and that's enough for me :P).

But the UMP is headed to radicalization, and the ones who will try to oppose this move will be marginalized.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 09, 2011, 11:56:11 AM
But the UMP is headed to radicalization, and the ones who will try to oppose this move will be marginalized.

They're to UMP, not the GOP. ::)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 09, 2011, 12:27:50 PM
But the UMP is headed to radicalization, and the ones who will try to oppose this move will be marginalized.

They're to UMP, not the GOP. ::)

The UMP will of course never be the GOP, because France is France. :P But that won't save us from a massive right-wing shift that has already begun.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on April 10, 2011, 05:46:35 AM
I do love the crazy mess which is French politics.

Is the primary what actually decides the candidate? Or are there other elements involved? And if the former, will it be like other French elections with a run-off?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 10, 2011, 07:08:09 AM
I do love the crazy mess which is French politics.

Is the primary what actually decides the candidate? Or are there other elements involved? And if the former, will it be like other French elections with a run-off?

Yeah, the PS primary will decide the candidate. It will be a primary with run-off if no candidate gets over 50%. The Greenies will hold a primary well, maybe a Joly-Hulot fight if she stays in and maybe Yves Cochet who has interest in running. The FG will choose in Politburo and then the choice will be ratified. The UMP has no primaries.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on April 10, 2011, 08:56:25 AM
I do love the crazy mess which is French politics.

Is the primary what actually decides the candidate? Or are there other elements involved? And if the former, will it be like other French elections with a run-off?

Yeah, the PS primary will decide the candidate. It will be a primary with run-off if no candidate gets over 50%. The Greenies will hold a primary well, maybe a Joly-Hulot fight if she stays in and maybe Yves Cochet who has interest in running. The FG will choose in Politburo and then the choice will be ratified. The UMP has no primaries.

Interesting. So in the UMP it's internal power politics that decides or what?

What are the polls saying about the PS primary run-off then? I presume DSK wins?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 10, 2011, 09:11:48 AM
Interesting. So in the UMP it's internal power politics that decides or what?

Mostly Dear Leader decides for himself. Those right-wingers like Villepin or the centrists who don't want him already have created their own parties and they will announce themselves independently of the UMP. The UMP itself, save maybe for the Bible-Thumpin' loon Boutin, is solidly behind Dear Leader.

Quote
What are the polls saying about the PS primary run-off then? I presume DSK wins?

Actually, surprisingly few polls and the few show a close runoff if it's DSK-Aubry or DSK-Hollande. It certainly isn't outside the realm of possibilities that Hollande could win even if DSK does run.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 10, 2011, 05:56:15 PM
Interesting. So in the UMP it's internal power politics that decides or what?

Mostly Dear Leader decides for himself. Those right-wingers like Villepin or the centrists who don't want him already have created their own parties and they will announce themselves independently of the UMP. The UMP itself, save maybe for the Bible-Thumpin' loon Boutin, is solidly behind Dear Leader.


Boutin has made some noises that she may stick her party to Borloo's future movement.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 10, 2011, 06:16:47 PM
ViaVoice poll for Liberation, 7-8 April, sample 1015

Wishes of victory (change from one month ago):

DSK 45 (-1)
Hollande 31 (+4)
Fillon 30 (+4) (fine)
Aubry 29 (+2)
Juppé 24 (not polled) (great !)
Sarkozy 23 (+1)
Borloo 22 (+6) (new media story of the moment)
Royal 22 (+4) (not yet entirely dead ?)
Villepin 21 (=) (les Français sont des veaux)
Hulot 19 (+1) (ROFL)
Besancenot 18 (+4) (Besancenot président de la Prépublique française... isn't there something wrong here ?)
Bayrou 16 (=) (LOL at this magnificent result ! ;D)
Marion "Marine" Le Pen 16 (-3) (backwards from the peak ?)
Joly 10 (-2)
Copé 10 (not polled) (ROFL)
Mélenchon 9 (+2) (rising... :P)
Valls 8 (=) (not declining... :P)
Montebourg 8 (-3) (well... :P)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 11, 2011, 05:38:01 AM
IFOP poll for Le Journal du Dimanche, 7-8 April, sample 957

Who is best placed to represent values and ideas of the center ?

(previous results from January 2011, December 2010, November 2010)

Borloo 37 / 32 / 31 / 24
Bayrou 36 / 41 / 44 / 41
Villepin 19 / 19 / 15 / 23
Morin 7 / 7 / 10 / 9

At least, Borloo may be able to terminate Bayrou and the very idea of a Morin candidacy.
That's a result, after all...

And LOL at this now entrenched idea in French medias and pollsters that Villepin can be a centre or even centre-right candidate...
Just because Sarkozy has a "libérale" and rightist tendency doesn't make Villepin a new Raymond Barre... ::)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 11, 2011, 07:18:41 AM
What I find more annoying is the media playing Villepin up as some sort of 'social Gaullist' in a non-liberal, slightly eurosceptic style. His government's policies were certainly quite 'liberal' and there's nothing 'social gaullist' in him


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 11, 2011, 07:30:54 AM
What I find more annoying is the media playing Villepin up as some sort of 'social Gaullist' in a non-liberal, slightly eurosceptic style. His government's policies were certainly quite 'liberal' and there's nothing 'social gaullist' in him

Yeah, I still fail to see how the man who imagined CPE managed to convert himself into a defender of the "modèle social français". LOL French politics...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 11, 2011, 03:18:23 PM
I really wonder how many times Villepin has been invited to Le Grand Journal, on Canal+, the "moral authority of modern France"....

So funny to see the porno-foot-sarcastic-money making TV machine which was a standard-bearer against CPE now supporting a mad man, just because he is against Sarkozy...
Pathetic, really.

Villepin is just a fake, a grand bourgeois heir (but, after all, all those great spirits are also grand-bourgeois heirs...).
At least, his father had real personal culture ! :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 14, 2011, 03:40:43 AM
LH2 poll for Le Nouvel Observateur, 9-10 April, sample 970

Do you intend to vote in the PS primary ?
yes, certainly 16%
yes, probably 14%
no, probably not 19%
no, certainly not 48%
don't know 3%

LOL ! Imagine the PS with 12 million people coming to vote in October... :D

What is more interesting is that the "yes" is higher for
18-24 years old (42%),
25-34 years old (37%), even if the younger you are, the likelier you are to say something and do the contrary...
income less than 1200 euros (36%)
public sector employees (35%)
i.e. bad numbers for DSK and good ones for... Royal !

Among the whole sample / among people from the left / among socialists:
DSK 32 / 36 / 43
Aubry 15 / 18 / 19
Hollande 14 / 18 / 25
Royal 11 / 12 / 7
Montebourg 2 / 3 / 2
other (non mentioned) 4 / 3 / 0
don't know 22 / 10 / 4

Fascinating to see that Hollande is now in better shape inside the socialist party and among the left voters and to see that it's the same for... DSK !
Aubry hasn't really a comparative advantage here.

And we don't know where Valls is...


They've also tested a possible primary inside the UMP ;D

Among the whole sample / among people from the right / among UMPers:
Fillon 29 / 33 / 31
Sarkozy 28 / 41 / 49
Juppé 14 / 9 / 8
Copé 9 / 8 / 3
other 3 / 1 / 2
don't know 17 / 8 / 7

Even if Fillon isn't ridiculous at all, how stupidly disciplined they are... :( They should have polled me, damn it ! ;)
LOL at Copé result.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 14, 2011, 07:23:42 AM
Nicolas Hulot is running, for some reason. I like how Duflot calls him la chouette.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 14, 2011, 11:22:25 AM
Nicolas Hulot is running, for some reason. I like how Duflot calls him la chouette.

Any good Monsieur Hulot (Jacques Tati) references in French media, or are silly puns like that a British tabloid thing?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 15, 2011, 05:11:17 AM
OpinionWay poll for Le Figaro, 12-14 April, sample 951

Probability to vote in the PS primary:
Among voters from the whole left: 18%
Among socialists: 24%
Among Greens: 8%
Among far-left voters: 11%

OpinionWay reckons that likely voters would be 2 to 2.5 billions, which is far more reasonable than the previous LH2 poll.... :P

And probability numbers seem more reliable in detail too: numbers by party (sse above), 20% among men, 16% among women, 25% among more than 50 years old, 11% among less than 50 years old.

Among the whole left / among socialists / among likely voters
(beware: less than 200 for the latter category)

DSK 46 / 51 / 46
Hollande 22 / 21 / 18
Aubry 19 / 18 / 24
Royal 8 / 8 / 9
Montebourg 5 / 2 / 3
don't know 15 / 5 / 7

DSK 52 / 58 / 55
Hollande 28 / 25 / 25
Royal 13 / 13 / 15
Montebourg 7 / 4 / 5
don't know 16 / 7 /10
(no second round here)

Hollande 37 / 40 / 35
Aubry 35 / 36 / 42

Royal 13 / 14 / 14
Montebourg 10 / 5 / 5
Valls 5 / 5 / 4
don't know 23 / 14 / 15

DSK is still strong, and especially among socialists.

Aubry hasn't the momentum in polls and the fact she is on a par with Hollande while being positioned more centrally (both politically and... functionally) in the party isn't really very good... :P
BUT she seems to have a stronger core of voters.
And I feel the medias, those days, are a bit in love for Aubry (and Villepin, of course).
Stupid feminist reflex (Aubry, a woman ROFL) ?
Pavlovian anti-Sarkozy reflex (Hulot hasn't had a good media coverage, Villepin is obviously favoured, Aubry is better treated than "horrible social-democrats" DSK and Hollande) ?
Hope this won't last...

I'm surprised Hollande doesn't perform better when Aubry isn't candidate.

And Royal is definitely lost.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 15, 2011, 06:23:36 AM
Good to see DSK still ahead.

Now, for God's sake, please go on and announce your damn candidacy !!!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 15, 2011, 10:13:44 AM
Good to see DSK still ahead.

Now, for God's sake, please go on and announce your damn candidacy !!!

He really can't do it before the G8 (26-27 May in Deauville).
Let's be patient ;).
With Hulot, Borloo, Villepin (and Clearstream), Royal, I think these... what?... 7 weeks will pass very quickly ;D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 21, 2011, 04:52:14 AM
Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 19-20 April, sample 926

This is to be published tomorrow, so the numbers for the small candidates aren't available now, but it seems Borloo is emerging a bit, with Villepin and Bayrou down. Hulot is a bit higher than Joly and Besancenot a bit lower than usual.

DSK 30 / Hollande 22 / Aubry 21 / Royal 15
Le Pen 21 / 22 / 23 / 23
Sarkozy 19 / 19 / 20 / 19

DSK still high, though a bit less stratospheric (but remember there are both Borloo and Hulot in the list now).
Hollande is safer than Aubry for the 2nd spot (22-19 and 21-20 against Sarkozy).

Of course, Harris Interactive is that pollster which was the first to put Marion "Marine" Le Pen ahead. So take these new results with a grain of salt.

But, again, Harris and Le Parisien are really good sellers, as they are the first to give complete first round polls since the cantonales. Where are the serious ones ? >:(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on April 21, 2011, 05:26:33 AM
Can someone explain to this complete novice regarding current French politics, what the key differences between DSK, Hollande, Aubry and Royal's platforms are?

From the earlier (much appreciated) write-up and responses since I gather that Royal is some discredited populist on the left of the party, Aubry's seen as a unity leader, and DSK is on the neoliberal - almost Blairite - right? So how about Hollande?

The Right's a fair bit easier to distinguish between.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 21, 2011, 07:16:48 AM
They are originally all from a "responsible" left, but they've all positioned quite differently due to political needs inside the party...

Royal is basically a populist, with social and economic measures tilting towards statism, public intervention, gifts to low-revenue people. But she has also built an image of someone strong on public security and on "values" inside families (though she is also "librul" on gay rights or things like that) and of someone who cares about everyday issues.
She has positioned herself more on the left of the party recently, because the left of the PS has no big leader (Emmanuelli, Hamon) who is viewed as a potential candidate. But they don't like her anyway.
Shortly after having graduated from the ENA, she was a Mitterrand under-minister (thanks to her boyfriend... Hollande) and was moderate at that time.
She is a lunatics, who has lost many of the bigwigs who once followed her.
She is now out and definitely out.

Aubry is a heir (she is Jacques Delors' daughter) and has been in the ENA, National School of Administration. She was between Mauroy and Jospin, so, yes, more on the left of the party, but not terribly.
But she has a leftist image, especially by having created the 35-hour week at work. She pushes for more spendings, by massively hiring young people in low-paid jobs in public structures, for example, in the same way she did in the late 1990s.
And she has used many leftist words recently because it gives her 25% of the party, as Montebourg is low and Hamon isn't candidate.
More important, she is at the political center of the PS and at the functional center of it, by having beaten Royal to become First Secretary in 2008. So, she has a good basis.
But her national polls aren't very good as she is bad in medias. She has a nasty personality in private.

Hollande (another former ENA student) is a former follower of Delors and has always been more a social-democrat. He has a very similar positioning to the one of DSK. He is a fiscal reformer and doesn't want to spend too much.
He has never been a minister but has been First Secretary between 1997 and 2008. He is liked by many PS rank-and-file and because of his sense of humour.
But he is also seen as too smooth: so he has lost weight recently...
He tries to be strong enough to make DSK drop and to grasp his reformist mantle.
But if he succeeds in being stronger than Aubry before June, he may also be able to kill DSK with the support of the left.

DSK is indeed seen as a very, very "libéral" guy, because of his good image among business in 1997-2000, when he was Economics and Finance minister, and because of his job in the IMF.
Still, he was closer to Jospin than to Rocard, first of all, and was initially (when he was economics professor and expert) less moderate than Hollande.
His current platform is, by definition, unknown, though.
He loves women, all the women, and had some problems with this in Washington, but that's more a strength in France...
He loves wines, food, money. The latter may be a problem for many rank-and-file in the left. But against Sarkozy, not so much...
His biggest strength now is that he is only one to be sure to be on the second round. As Marine Le Pen is high, Sarkozy isn't sure to make it to the second round, but Aubry and Hollande have only a small margin of security (Royal is down).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on April 21, 2011, 07:52:36 AM
Excellent, thanks for that. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 22, 2011, 03:30:50 AM
Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 19-20 April, sample 926

So here are the complete results:

DSK 30 / Hollande 22 / Aubry 21 / Royal 15
Le Pen 21 / 23 / 23 / 22
Sarkozy 19 / 19 / 20 / 19
Borloo 7 / 8 / 9 / 10
Villepin 3 / 5 / 5 / 6
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Bayrou 4 / 5 / 5 / 7
Hulot 6 / 6 / 5 / 8
Mélenchon 4 / 5 / 5 / 6
Besancenot 4 / 5 / 5 / 5
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1 / 1

So, Borloo deflates Villepin and Bayrou.
Hulot is a bit higher than Joly.
Mélenchon isn't able to go very high.
Besancenot seems a bit weakened, but that may be a bias of Harris.

How fun would it be to see all these candidates just under 5% (the threshold above which the State takes your campaign spendings): Mélenchon, Bayrou, Villepin and especially Besancenot !
How fun !

Borloo is both a problem and a solution for Sarkozy: killing Villepin and Bayrou is unavoidable, but not losing votes is another imperative...

Sarkozy must be praying for another big crisis ;D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2011, 04:42:22 AM
Borloo and Hulot in the 5-10 range ? LOL


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 22, 2011, 06:54:28 AM
Borloo and Hulot in the 5-10 range ? LOL

That's not bad, considering only Marion "Marine" Le Pen has managed to climb above the 10%.

Without Villepin, Borloo would probably be around 10-12.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2011, 07:36:23 AM
Borloo and Hulot in the 5-10 range ? LOL

That's not bad, considering only Marion "Marine" Le Pen has managed to climb above the 10%.

Without Villepin, Borloo would probably be around 10-12.

I've ceased to be astonished about the people's considerable stupidity : when you consider this factor, Le Pen's vote is easily explainable. On the other hand, Borloo and Hulot are not the kind of candidates who attract the stupid vote (except maybe for a few guys who watch the latter on TV and find him so cool, but that doesn't make 8%).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 22, 2011, 09:55:36 AM
You'll meet so many people who think themselves as not influenced by medias... but who think only based on what they've heard in talkshows ;)

You'll meet so many people who say they don't believe any longer in politicians. Ever. Never... but who jump in the first bandwagon that runs near them (Royal, Sarkozy, Bayrou, Le Pen, Bové, Hulot, Mélenchon, Besancenot, Joly, Borloo...) ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 22, 2011, 06:46:11 PM
You'll meet so many people who think themselves as not influenced by medias... but who think only based on what they've heard in talkshows ;)

You'll meet so many people who say they don't believe any longer in politicians. Ever. Never... but who jump in the first bandwagon that runs near them (Royal, Sarkozy, Bayrou, Le Pen, Bové, Hulot, Mélenchon, Besancenot, Joly, Borloo...) ;)

Definately. In the UK, we had those who weren't influence by the media, but hated everyone because they read the Daily Mail. They hated politicians because they were expenses-fiddling, country-hating idiots... but Nick Clegg was okay to them for like a month in 2010.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2011, 11:48:46 PM
Were there already any polls showing how much support Marine LePen would get in a run-off against the other candidates ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 24, 2011, 04:19:03 AM
Were there already any polls showing how much support Marine LePen would get in a run-off against the other candidates ?

For some reason, we haven't had a lot of second round polls for now. Personally, I'd easily see her at 30% against a socialist.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 24, 2011, 04:58:10 PM
Were there already any polls showing how much support Marine LePen would get in a run-off against the other candidates ?

For some reason, we haven't had a lot of second round polls for now. Personally, I'd easily see her at 30% against a socialist.

Yeah, there is no need to poll her as the final result would be her defeat.

BUT, considering the current mood and what I suspect to be a use of opinion polls as an escape valve, a release, she may reach something between 35-40%...
Of course, that wouldn't be the results of 2012, but I see many people ready to support her IF the first line of defence is over...
Be careful...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 24, 2011, 05:30:48 PM
Lol Bayrou.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 24, 2011, 06:07:46 PM
Imagine 2nd round is Segolene X Le Pen. who wins?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 25, 2011, 04:49:11 AM
Imagine 2nd round is Segolene X Le Pen. who wins?

Please don't even talk about such a nightmare. The 2007 runoff was already awful enough.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 25, 2011, 11:00:12 AM
Imagine 2nd round is Segolene X Le Pen. who wins?

Please don't even talk about such a nightmare. The 2007 runoff was already awful enough.

but... who wins? I think Royal wins (with big bad fab's vote).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 25, 2011, 11:01:43 AM
Imagine 2nd round is Segolene X Le Pen. who wins?

Please don't even talk about such a nightmare. The 2007 runoff was already awful enough.

but... who wins? I think Royal wins (with big bad fab's vote).

Of course she wins... And the left gets a narrow margin in legislative elections and is headed to a disaster in 2017.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 26, 2011, 07:20:12 AM
IFOP poll for Paris-Match and Europe 1, 20-21 April, sample 917

At last, a GREAT poll:

Arthaud 0.5 / 1 / 0.5 / 0.5
Besancenot 4 / 4.5 / 4 / 4
Mélenchon 5 / 4.5 / 4.5 / 6
DSK 27 / Hollande  21 / Aubry 20 / Royal 16
Hulot 7 / 8 / 8.5 / 9
Bayrou 5 / 6 / 6.5 / 6.5
Villepin 4 / 4.5 / 5 / 5
Borloo 7.5 / 8.5 / 9.5 / 11
Sarkozy 20 / 21 / 21.5 / 21
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Le Pen 19 / 20 / 20 / 20

Le Pen is stable on high levels.
Besancenot is now under 5%, ô joie ! ;D

Royal is completely out. Aubry isn't a safe candidate for the PS and Hollande is still too risky though on the rise. DSK is the best but now under 30.

Hulot may be a problem for the PS, even if he will be attacked a lot and won't probably be able to survive many articles on his past and on his business relations...

What is most interesting is the fact that centrists are widely spread and reallt don't want Sarkozy. Borloo steals voters from the PS, Bayrou and Villepin. But it seems as if all these voters, probably former Bayrou voters from 2007 don't know where to go.

Sarkozy is a bit higher, but still in the margin of error against Le Pen.

Of course, all polls should be taken with a grain of salt...
Look at this other hypothesis with Joly rather than Hulot: how is Besancenot one point higher ??? and DSK 2 points lower ?

Arthaud 0.5
Besancenot 5
Mélenchon 5
DSK 25
Joly 5.5
Bayrou 6
Villepin 4
Borloo 8
Sarkozy 21
Dupont-Aignan 1
Le Pen 19

It's amazingly divided... But IFOP has tested another interesting hypothesis: Sarkozy alone in the right. And that's very, very bad for him: he has NO reserves.

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 5
Mélenchon 5.5
DSK 30 (logical)
Hulot 8.5
Bayrou 7 (he isn't so much higher)
Sarkozy 22.5 (only 2.5 points of difference !!!)
Le Pen 20.5 (probably Dupont-Aignan voters plus 0.5 from Villepin or Borloo or Sarkozy as some aren't afraid Sarkozy is ousted)

These results are really bad for Sarkozy: he is on his own, whether Villepin manages to be candidate, whether Borloo really wants to be candidate, whether NDA manages to gather 500 signatures.

Of course, he'll think even more that what is his first priority is to kill Le Pen in the 1st round.
But, by doing so, he is playing the PS game, as they aren't so strong; they win just because Sarkozy is weak (except DSK who has a small(er) personal advantage).

Still this double negative momentum, this vicious circle in which he is trapped and about which we've already discussed.
He really need a game change (and something more than Carla's hypothetic pregnancy ;)).

This is not very good either for the PS as, without a divided field on the left, well, Marion "Marine" Le Pen is even higher and so, without DSK, they may not avoid another 21st April so easily.

Sure, with the support of Canal + and Libération, Villepin will probably be candidate ;D, but still...



And this is not finished, as we've got 2nd round numbers too ! You've asked for them ... ;)

DSK - Sarkozy 61 - 39 (LOL)
Hollande - Sarkozy 56 - 44 (out of the MoE)
Aubry - Sarkozy 55 - 45 (out of the MoE)
Royal - Sarkozy 51 - 49 (until then, this was the only candidate Sarkozy has manged to beat...)

Please note that 64% of Borloo voters pick DSK, 46% of them pick Hollande and even 39% of them pick Aubry...
Sarkozy has really lost the former UDF voters...

Sarkozy - Le Pen 73 - 27 (which is better for Panzergirl than for Daddy in 2002)

DSK - Le Pen 75- 25
Hollande - Le Pen 72 - 28
Aubry - Le Pen 69 - 31

No Royal-Le Pen, but, considering Aubry is "only" at 69 %, we can assume Royal is at 65%, at most.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 27, 2011, 03:26:01 AM
Compared with other polls, Sarkozy is around 3-4 points up. Statistical noise or is he really gaining ground ? ???


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 27, 2011, 07:35:00 AM
Compared with other polls, Sarkozy is around 3-4 points up. Statistical noise or is he really gaining ground ? ???

This is IFOP, not Harris Interactive.
And there is the fact that Sarkozy has probably bounced a slightly bit since one month.
And it's not really 3-4: rather 2 at most.

Now that the fight is beginning inside the PS, expect Sarkozy to climb at 22-23, with DSK being lowered as he'll nearing the arena.

Sarkozy is structurally weak and should lose this.
But the PS isn't very high and the political scene is utterly crowded and divided, this is amazing.
It's fine to have a primary, but it won't prevent Mélenchon, a Green, Bayrou, Besancenot to be candidates...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 28, 2011, 08:55:16 AM
CSA poll for BFM-TV, RMC and 20 Minutes, 26 April, sample 1010

DSK 26 / 27 / 27 / 28
Sarkozy 21 / 22 / 21 / 23

Le Pen 20 / 19 / 19 / 19
Hulot 9 / 9 / 8 / 9
Borloo 4 / - / 8 / -
Villepin 4 / 5 / - / -
Bayrou 5 / 7 / 6 / 8
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 5 / 5
Besancenot 4 / 4 / 4 / 5
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 2

Borloo steals more to Bayrou than Villepin. Both of them steals to DSK, Sarkozy and Bayrou.
But it appears that Hulot is now the strong man of this vast central zone.

Borloo is really disappointing in this poll, compared to the IFOP one.
Hulot is now at 9, i.e. he coalesces Greens and many centrists.

Sarkozy has gained 3-4 points since the previous CSA poll.
But Le Pen remains very high and he is not so strong.

DSK is weaker, being now clearly under 30.
And, what is more, he may be threatened by one "centrist" or another.

Besancenot seems to have, at last, decreased: IFOP and CSA put him at 4.

The PS should really be careful, as war is on between DSK and Hollande supporters (with Aubry surprisingly "protecting" Hollande, whom she hates: is she trying to use him to weaken DSK and then appear as a compromise solution ?).
As I've said before, the moment DSK is candidate, he will be seen as the socialist candidate and will lose 2-4 points among moderate voters.
The threat of another 21st of April isn't over.

But, of course, if the socialist candidate is able to make it to the second round, it's over for Sarkozy, as he is hated by so many people.

Now that Sarkozy is a bit up, paradoxically, there will be less whispers about another candidate on the right. BUT, precisely, if the right is up, she should Fillon or Juppé in order to have a small chance against DSK or Hollande... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 28, 2011, 09:10:39 AM
So, from next week, polls will systematically include
Jean-Louis Borloo, because he has announced that the venerable Radical Party, will quit the UMP (it was an "associate" member),
and
Nicolas Hulot, because he will declare on Thursday,
as candidates.

As they are already forced to poll at least 3 options, with DSK, Aubry, Hollande, they won't lose time and money to poll 6 options with Hulot AND Joly or 12 options with AND without Borloo.

As a consequence, even if the situation is hypothetically better for Sarkozy, it will be bad for him, all the more that poll firms seem to be stuck to keep Villepin.

It won't be good for the Greens, as the 1 or 2 points Hulot is able to win on Bayrou or on the right, he will lose them towards the socialist. Worse, Borloo may be able to lessen their media impact, as Hulot but also Borloo are media favourites/puppies.

On the other hand, I'm not sure it'll be bad for DSK or Hollande, as Borloo and Hulot have already been tested, without much consequence for them.

Another collateral victim will probably be Bayrou (1 or 2 points are vital at this level...).


So, I was right for Bayrou, but I was wrong about the fact that some Greens would go to the socialist because they dislike Hulot.
There aren't so many apparatchiki of the Greens in poll samples ;D, so Hulot is indeed "bad" for Borloo and Bayrou, but also for the socialist candidate.

Some angry voters from the mainstream right, who had fled directly to DSK (and to him alone), have probably come back, which explains a small rebound for Sarkozy.

Everything is very fluid.

Borloo's moment is already over, as many Radical bigwigs (Léonetti) won't follow him outside the UMP (nor centrist UMPers, like Méhaignerie and Daubresse).
Basically, Borloo will just be NC+Parti Radical potential candidate. Already, Morin isn't tested any longer in polls. But that's the only difference...

Hulot's moment is now but won't last long. Expect socialists and leftist Greens to fire at him through "independent" medias (Mediapart, Rue89, Le Post, Slate,...) if they see Hulot reaching 10%.

We are now probably entering a moment when the PS is back to the frontpage. If there are some polls on PS primaries with Hollande threatening DSK and with Hamon tested, expect some big surprises from medias' storytellers.

One big month before DSK is almost officially in... This will be excruciating for the Saviour's supporters ;).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 28, 2011, 10:43:49 AM
So Sarkozy is really up... For visiting a couple of factories and promising a 1000€ gift to a handful of people ?

As I've said, stupidity shouldn't surprise me anymore at this point. But...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 29, 2011, 03:32:34 AM
So Sarkozy is really up... For visiting a couple of factories and promising a 1000€ gift to a handful of people ?

As I've said, stupidity shouldn't surprise me anymore at this point. But...

I don't rethink his rebound is linked to these small facts.
I think some angry mainstream right voters who answered "DSK" or even "Le Pen" in March-April are now a bit more relaxed and a bit more aware of the threat of a reverse 21st of April and so have come back to Sarkozy.

But, well, even being at 21-23 for the Great Leader of the right isn't exactly what we can call a huge achievement... :P
(when Chirac was at 19, it was because there was another big candidate, Giscard, Barre, Balladur, or because he was just lucky to have Jospin even lower...)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 29, 2011, 12:50:58 PM
Well, Borloo, Villepin, Bayrou &co... I know they're pretty weak compared to past candidates, but adding their vote they are a big handicap to Sarko. Of course a couple of their voters may go to the left otherwise, but still a majority clearly favors the right.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 29, 2011, 05:20:50 PM
IFOP poll for Paris-Match and Europe 1, 20-21 April, sample 917

Arthaud 0.5
Besancenot 4
Mélenchon 5
DSK 27
Hulot 7
Bayrou 5
Villepin 4
Borloo 7.5
Sarkozy 20
Dupont-Aignan 1
Le Pen 19

IFOP has tested another interesting hypothesis: Sarkozy alone in the right. And that's very, very bad for him: he has NO reserves.

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 5
Mélenchon 5.5
DSK 30 (logical)
Hulot 8.5
Bayrou 7 (he isn't so much higher)
Sarkozy 22.5 (only 2.5 points of difference !!!)
Le Pen 20.5 (probably Dupont-Aignan voters plus 0.5 from Villepin or Borloo or Sarkozy as some aren't afraid Sarkozy is ousted)

Bayrou gains 2 points, Hulot 1.5, DSK 3, Mélenchon 0.5, Besancenot 1
and Sarkozy only 2.5 ...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 30, 2011, 03:45:52 AM
Well, thats quite surprising. Mélenchon and Besancenot, really ? ???


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 05, 2011, 06:35:13 AM
So now we have the "Porschegate"... And of course the first to denounce this horrible scandal are DSK's socialist "friends". ::)

Stupid, stupid, stupid French politics.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 05, 2011, 07:04:24 PM
I doubt that someone like Le Pen would ever be able to get anywhere near 23% in the US...
Islamophobia is very widespread in America, though it would be difficult for her here.  Even if our corrupt and stubborn two-party system could be broken, Marine's version of the FN would have a difficult time, as the far-right would be alienated by her liberal stances on gay rights, abortion, secularism, and divorce, not to mention her left-wing economic positions.  However, if Bruno Gollnisch were to run here (assuming he could break the two-party system, or win the Republican nomination), he would have a good chance of perhaps 30% of the vote or more.  America is so screwed up, it's embarrassing. 


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 07, 2011, 04:33:55 PM
Nobody has checked opinion polls this past week ?

Anyway, I'll do it in the next 2 days.

Isn't there a lasting little momentum towards Hollande ?
He may really finished as ideally positioned if Aubry isn't a candidate...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 08, 2011, 04:51:09 PM
LH2 poll for Yahoo!, 6-7 May 2011, sample 970

Another bad news for Sarkozy, but not so good news for socialists.
Other mushrooming names: Hulot and Borloo.

It's not like we haven't anticipated it, but French people are really globally stupid.
Another evidence ? Besancenot is no longer candidate and so NPA support vanishes... don't tell me these people are now intending to vote for Hulot or Borloo or Chevènement ::).

Arthaud 1 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Mélenchon 4 / 4 / 4 / 6
Chevènement 3 / 2 / 2 / 2
DSK 23 / Aubry 22 / Hollande 21.5 / Royal 15
Hulot 11 / 11 / 11 / 13.5
Bayrou 8 / 7 / 7 / 8
Borloo 9 / 11 / 10 / 11
Villepin 6 / 4.5 / 5 / 5
Sarkozy 16 / 19 / 19 / 20
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Le Pen 17 / 17 / 18 / 17

So, it's a negative hypothesis for Sarkozy, of course, as there are both Villepin and Borloo. But it's not unrealistic.
Le Pen is still high though a bit less.
Royal is definitely a too weak candidate.

BUT the great news is that DSK bonus seems to have vanished.
Hollande doesn't seem stronger than Aubry in the 1st round, but he is better in the second one.

DSK-Sarkozy 65-35
Aubry-Sarkozy 56-44
Hollande-Sarkozy 60-40

DSK-Le Pen 77-23
Aubry-Le Pen 71-29
Hollande-Le Pen 76-24
Sarkozy-Le Pen 74-26

We are really at the crossroads for the socialists. DSK is threatened. Aubry has still a big chance because she is the first secretary and she can rally both the left (Hamon) and more moderate figures (Delanoë), but she seems to have dropped. Hollande is on the rise, but still not enough.
If Hollande manages to come ahead of DSK, you'll see a big change in the momentum and in the media story...

Sarkozy is weak, but Borloo wouldn't be able to have so high numbers in a real campaign and, of course, Hulot steals votes from both sides (though probably more to DSK than to Sarkozy).

Please note that DSK's fall is due to voters from Borloo, Hulot, Bayrou and Villepin going back to their "hero" (of the moment).

Chevènement is tested for the first time and seems to take 1 point from Mélenchon.

Another hypothesis tested is with Joly:
Arthaud 1
NPA candidate 0.5
Mélenchon 5
Chevènement 1
DSK 24
Joly 9 (her best result !!! how ironic now that Hulot is ahead !)
Bayrou 8
Borloo 9
Villepin 5.5
Sarkozy 18
Dupont-Aignan 1
Le Pen 18

The important differences between Joly and Hulot tests should of course lead us to take this poll with a big grain of salt (or to be convinced that French voters are definitely too stupid for a presidential system :P)

Eventually, Bayrou seems to be up again, though Borloo is now above him.

Really a very fluid situation, much is now at stake for the centres and for the socialists.

Who will really emerge in the big centre ? Hulot, Borloo, Bayrou ?
Who will win between DSK and Hollande ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 09, 2011, 02:26:38 AM
BUT the great horrible news is that DSK bonus seems to have vanished.

Fixed.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 09, 2011, 04:37:29 AM
BUT the great horrible news is that DSK bonus seems to have vanished.

Fixed.

FTR, "great" on my keyboard was really neutral ;).

Well, it's really the first poll that shows this.
LH2 isn't a great pollster, but we've also said it about Harris Interactive, and their first !!!OMG!!! poll was quite accurate after all...

I think I'm going to create a tracker, to try to figure out where the momentum is.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 09, 2011, 04:54:13 AM
Would be nice, yeah. :) I could make a chart too if you provide the data. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 09, 2011, 05:03:42 AM
So what's this "Porschegate"?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 09, 2011, 05:07:42 AM

DSK photographed driving a Porsche (which wasn't even his, in the end). French people tend to think left-wingers don't have the right to be wealthy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on May 09, 2011, 05:13:57 AM

DSK photographed driving a Porsche (which wasn't even his, in the end). French people tend to think left-wingers don't have the right to be wealthy.

Class based populism bothers me... Only Greens shouldn't have the right to drive a Porsche ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on May 09, 2011, 05:55:52 AM
Isn't there a lasting little momentum towards Hollande ?
He may really finished as ideally positioned if Aubry isn't a candidate...

In the last TNS Sofres  (http://www.tns-sofres.com/points-de-vue/24D5260F16D64DD8B90BB518A8FCB24D.aspx) barometer, he is up by 6 points at 40% and tied with DSK among left-wing supporters (60%), but Aubry is still a little ahead (65%). What is impressive is how he managed to leave the 25%-30% area in the last few months.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 09, 2011, 07:28:08 AM

DSK photographed driving a Porsche (which wasn't even his, in the end). French people tend to think left-wingers don't have the right to be wealthy.

Leftist new medias (Mediapart, Rue89, Slate, Le Post,... with their old predecessor Le Canard Enchaîné) tend to think socialist leaders don't have the right to be wealthy... ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on May 09, 2011, 08:53:44 AM

DSK photographed driving a Porsche (which wasn't even his, in the end). French people tend to think left-wingers don't have the right to be wealthy.

It's not just the French, no-one likes a champagne socialist.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 09, 2011, 10:27:37 AM
This is one year before the election. Let's begin the 2012 Big Bad Tracker ! ;D

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly.

I'll keep 3 trackers with DSK, Aubry and Hollande, until the scene is clearer. But I'll compute an aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate, including, at the moment, 0.6 DSK, 0.3 Hollande and 0.1 Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate (this ponderation will change quickly and periodically).

Besancenot isn't candidate any longer so, for the moment, there is an anonymous NPA candidate.

I'll publish this tracker every Monday (I'll see in September if I need to publish it more often).

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and will lose a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; etc).
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)



9 May DSK sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,90
NPA   3,19
Mélenchon   4,47
Chevènement   0,90
DSK   26,19
Hulot   8,54
Bayrou   5,67
Borloo   6,84
Villepin   4,46
Sarkozy   18,77
Dupont-Aignan   1,00
Le Pen   19,07




9 May Aubry sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,64
NPA   3,12
Mélenchon   4,41
Chevènement   0,82
Aubry   21,26
Hulot   8,55
Bayrou   6,23
Borloo   9,83
Villepin   4,88
Sarkozy   19,96
Dupont-Aignan   0,98
Le Pen   19,59




9 May Hollande sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,79
NPA   3,14
Mélenchon   4,43
Chevènement   0,86
Hollande   21,50
Hulot   8,71
Bayrou   6,14
Borloo   9,00
Villepin   4,86
Sarkozy   19,57
Dupont-Aignan   1,00
Le Pen   20,00




9 May generic socialist sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,8
NPA   3,2
Mélenchon   4,4
Chevènement   0,9
PS   24,2
Hulot   8,6
Bayrou   5,9
Borloo   8,0
Villepin   4,6
Sarkozy   19,2
Dupont-Aignan   1,0
Le Pen   19,3


Antonio, I'll let you draw a fine graph.
With 3 weeks behind, you'll be able to start it.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 09, 2011, 01:55:56 PM
Fivethirtyeight, french version ! :D

I'll try to build some nice graph with a trendline when we have some more data. Maybe your methodology isn't 100% scientific, but it makes enough sense. ;)


It's not just the French, no-one likes a champagne socialist.

Of course. People always prefer a neoliberal hack who act like rednecks, to a guy who are not ashamed to live comfortably and whose policies whould actually help the poor.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 09, 2011, 02:20:23 PM
Fivethirtyeight, french version ! :D

I'll try to build some nice graph with a trendline when we have some more data. Maybe your methodology isn't 100% scientific, but it makes enough sense. ;)

Let's say a French version of RealClearPolitics... more accurate, both politically and scientifically ;)...


It's not just the French, no-one likes a champagne socialist.

Of course. People always prefer a neoliberal hack who act like rednecks, to a guy who are not ashamed to live comfortably and whose policies whould actually help the poor.

Oh, oh, it seems you're already taken by the heat of the campaign, Antonio... Believe, it's psychologically very hard to see bad periods for your champion, but you have to live with them until the second round ;)....

Each time Sarkozy was under Royal in 2007, it was excruciating... Well, it was Sarkozy, BUT it was Royal :P.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on May 09, 2011, 11:44:54 PM
It's not just the French, no-one likes a champagne socialist.

Of course. People always prefer a neoliberal hack who act like rednecks, to a guy who are not ashamed to live comfortably and whose policies whould actually help the poor.

No, the Right prefer that. The Left prefer socialists that help the poor but tend to be understandably turned off by socialists that live too comfortably, parading their opulent purchases (see: Two Jags). So neither side are enthused by champagne socialists, yet the neoliberal redneck doesn't alienate his vote.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 10, 2011, 01:59:05 AM
ViaVoice poll for Libération, 11-25 April, sample 411 LV among 800 considering themselves from the "left" among a total sample of 2680

Wishes of victory in the socialist primary:

DSK 39
Hollande 20
Royal 11
Montebourg 5
Valls 2
other 7 (I really wonder which ones... Pierret ? :P)
don't know 16

Hollande 29
Aubry 23
Royal 13
Montebourg 5
Valls 3
other 11
don't know 16

This poll has been made "a long time ago", so take it with a grain of salt, though DSK is still clearly ahead.
Hollande is really competitive against Aubry and in a second round, he is now able to beat her, I think.

What is surprising is the numbers of those answering "another candidate"... But I shouldn't be surprised as many "likely voters in the socialist primary" doesn't even know who was Mitterrand... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 10, 2011, 02:21:59 AM
TNS-Sofres poll for Canal +, 3-4 May 2011, sample 975

Yeah, let's publish this one too, though we don't even know how much socialists there are in the sample and though primary candidates or possible candidates have an advantage over other big ones (Fabius, Delanoë, who are probably both closer to Mitterrand, at least in their political methods).

Who is the closest to Mitterrand "in his ideas and proposals" ? (don't ask me to whom "his" refers...)

among the whole sample / among socialists:

Hollande 18 / 23
DSK 16 / 20
Aubry 13 / 18
Royal 9 / 10
Fabius 8 / 6
Delanoë 5 / 7
Valls 2 / 1
Montebourg 1 / 1
Hamon 1 / 0
don't know+ no one 27 / 14

This poll has allowed Hollande to gain some favourable noise in medias.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 10, 2011, 09:27:37 AM
2 other useless polls, considering I'm not so sure Fabius or Jospin still mean something to many French people... and considering questions and how they are read or heard have of course a great influence.

IFOP poll, for France-Soir, 3-5 May 2011, sample 1042

Who is the most faithful heir of Mitterrand ?
(among the whole sample / among socialists - number unknown, BTW)

DSK 22 / 27
Hollande 19 / 22
Jospin 19 / 20
Aubry 9 / 18
Lang 14 / 6
Fabius 10 / 4
Royal 8 / 8


BVA poll, for 20 Minutes, 6-7 May 2011, sample 1010

Who is the most like Mitterrand ?
(among the whole sample / among voters from the left)

Hollande 32 / 27
DSK 30 / 28
Aubry 18 / 20
Royal 12 / 10

(limited list)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 10, 2011, 01:23:50 PM
Who is the closest to Mitterrand "in his ideas and proposals" ? (don't ask me to whom "his" refers...)

In his "ideas and proposals" ? Haha, good one. Does this refer to the 1971's Mitterrand who wanted "rupture with capitalism", or the old wise guy who campaigned for a "united France" in 1988 ? ;D

Basically one could pick anyone on this list and it would make some sense.


It's not just the French, no-one likes a champagne socialist.

Of course. People always prefer a neoliberal hack who act like rednecks, to a guy who are not ashamed to live comfortably and whose policies whould actually help the poor.

No, the Right prefer that. The Left prefer socialists that help the poor but tend to be understandably turned off by socialists that live too comfortably, parading their opulent purchases (see: Two Jags). So neither side are enthused by champagne socialists, yet the neoliberal redneck doesn't alienate his vote.

In France we've gone far beyond the fact of "parading opulent purchases". It's actually the media who recklessly search for any sign of wealth among every politician.
I deeply despise ostentatory consumption and I think a politician who is always trying to show how "succesful" he is, is unworthy to be elected to anything. But I also think there's nothing wrong with being wealthy whatever your political opinions are.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 11, 2011, 06:55:31 AM
Harris Interactive poll, for LCP-AN, 6-9 May 2011, sample 1624 (but Internet poll)

Another one... Pollsters should really thank Mitterrand...

"Who embodies Mitterrand's heritage in the best way ?"
(among the whole sample / among voters from the left / among former Mitterrand voters !)

None 44 / 34 / 30
Hollande 15 / 24 / 26
DSK 14 / 15 / 15
Aubry 10 / 13 / 16
Royal 5 / 8 / 6
Montebourg 2 / 4 / 3
Valls 2 / 0 / 1
don't know 8 / 2 / 2

Fabius, Jospin, Delanoë, Lang, etc. weren't tested.

All this phase of "history rewriting" (Mitterrand was a master in this "art"...) seems to be globally neutral, as people essentially answers to another question (which is your favourite candidate ?)...
But, in detail, it's slightly positive for Hollande, because of the media noise and because it's another small piece feeding his momentum.

Though, in 2 weeks, all of this will have been forgotten :P.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 11, 2011, 07:02:24 AM
LH2 poll, for Le Nouvel Observateur, 6-7 May 2011, sample 970

Le Nouvel Obs has money to waste, it seems...
All the more that they haven't proposed another possible answer: in late May-early June, just after the G8.

Anyway...

When DSK should be officially candidate ?
(among the whole sample / among voters from the left / among self-proclaimed socialists)

Now 26 / 27 / 32
In late June, when the period is officially opened 37 / 43 / 44
In the autumn (WTF ? candidacies are closed on the 13th of July !)) 19 / 16 / 15
don't know 18 / 14 / 9

DSK should resign, to show his interest for the presidential election 43 / 45 / 44
DSK should stay in the IMF for the moment, it's an important post 46 / 45 / 49

Pundits in LH2 are able to draw many clever conclusions from these numbers...
When questions are stupid, when people answer contradictory things, as for me, I'm unable to say anything ;D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 12, 2011, 12:58:08 PM
I wish DSK would just say whether he's running or not already, as this will-he-or-won't-he speculation is making his poll numbers fall. 


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 12, 2011, 02:42:13 PM
I wish DSK would just say whether he's running or not already, as this will-he-or-won't-he speculation is making his poll numbers fall. 

Yeah, I feel the same way of course... I don't know what strategy he's following by constantly delaying his announcement, but it doesn't seem to be working.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 12, 2011, 03:04:06 PM
I wish DSK would just say whether he's running or not already, as this will-he-or-won't-he speculation is making his poll numbers fall. 

Yeah, I feel the same way of course... I don't know what strategy he's following by constantly delaying his announcement, but it doesn't seem to be working.

He wants to be seen as a "great among the greats" in Deauville and maybe a bit later.

All the buzz around cars, flats, houses, etc. may eventually be a good thing for him because it's occurring NOW: better sooner rather than later...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 14, 2011, 06:32:18 PM
oops

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/imf_boss_strauss_kahn_arrested_in_Kbd7uAi594vbej3oORXfcJ


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 14, 2011, 06:37:22 PM
I was going to post about the PR and the UMP, but this seems less important now for whatever reason....


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on May 14, 2011, 06:47:30 PM
oops

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/imf_boss_strauss_kahn_arrested_in_Kbd7uAi594vbej3oORXfcJ

Yeah, that could hurt the Socialists.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 14, 2011, 06:49:31 PM
On the other hand, it is the Post, and who is stupid enough to pull sh**t like that when you're in DSK's position?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Foucaulf on May 14, 2011, 06:55:18 PM
On the other hand, it is the Post, and who is stupid enough to oull sh**t like that when you're in DSK's position?

Quote
NYT NEWS ALERT: Head of I.M.F. Arrested in New York and Accused of Sexual Attack (http://twitter.com/#!/nytimes/status/69542519347748864)

It's also on the front page of the Times. Think DSK can go back to France even if he tried?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on May 14, 2011, 06:58:57 PM
People still think that sex scandals matter in France as much as they do in the US.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 14, 2011, 06:59:53 PM
Uh, there's a difference between a "sex scandal" and raping a hotel maid.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 14, 2011, 07:05:42 PM
"I'm the odds-on favourite to become the president of the 5th most economically powerful country on the planet. So, i'm just going to rape this maid, because no one's going to find out about it." Come on, it's tabloid fluff. (I hope.)

If Le Parti Socialiste lose this one... the European centre-left is just beyond help! Ou est... Hollande?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 14, 2011, 07:09:30 PM
Ah, this is inconvenient. For me, that is. Because I moved to a new flat last week and my internet access is... er... patchy (and will be for about a month). Which is less than great when this sort of thing happens, for the usual reasons.

So.

Please behave yourselves and all that.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: tpfkaw on May 14, 2011, 07:18:45 PM
DSK has a whole lot of empathy and compassion for working-class people, it seems.

Anyhoo, with him out of the picture, looks like 2002 all over again.  Who'da thunk?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Foucaulf on May 14, 2011, 07:32:15 PM
That last post was a rather ignomious introduction, so I should actually contribute to this thread.

I've paid attention to French politics for a year or so. First I was amused how the far-left was a political force. Then I read about cumul des mandats, cohabitation, le FN and the socialists shooting themselves in the foot. What a mess!

To me, the winner of the présidentielle is only relevant wrt to Europe and the macroeconomy. No one is willing to address the social stratification of France save for the far right, as misguided as they are. For this reason I could care less about DSK's rape scandal - let Hollande take his place.

Perhaps I'm misguided in my cynicism. I only recently witnessed the French's love for striking, and I'm not sure if Mélenchon and the other left-wing bunch have publicized themselves. But then one has Le Pen on the other side, and I wonder: can politics even address France's malaise anymore?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 15, 2011, 02:33:42 AM
The idea that people are too rational to do stupid stuff when running for office has never been correct. Look at John Edwards, Tiger Woods, Richard Nixon and so on and so forth.

But I suppose it might be French customs not really mixing with American. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: beneficii on May 15, 2011, 02:40:03 AM
According to Reuters, Strauss-Kahn has been formally arrested and charged with criminal sexual act, attempted rape, and unlawful imprisonment by the State of New York.  If convicted of all 3, he could be looking at some serious prison time.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 15, 2011, 03:52:39 AM
So yeah, I'm kind of shocked and I must say this affair will probably ruin my holidays that begin just today.

Anyways, he is innocent until proven guilty. I have serious reasons to believe he has nothing to do with these accusations, especially because I've seen nothing that would indicate he'd be able to do such a thing (no, cheating has absolutely nothing to do with raping). And then, why in the world would he do that ? You can't say what you want about DSK, but certainly not that he is an idiot who didn't realize the consequences of such an act.

You know I'm not fond of conspiracy theories, but you won't deny that this scandal comes extremely opportunely for some people.

Anyways, I trust the justice and I know that if he's innocent, he will be acquitted.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 15, 2011, 03:59:21 AM
Anyways, I trust the justice and I know that if he's innocent, he will be acquitted.
You trust the justice of New York state?

That's... remarkable. :P

Mind you, I've no opinion of what's really going on here. The guy drives a Porsche, so he presumably rapes people, too. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: The Mikado on May 15, 2011, 04:14:36 AM
The idea that people are too rational to do stupid stuff when running for office has never been correct. Look at John Edwards, Tiger Woods, Richard Nixon and so on and so forth.

But I suppose it might be French customs not really mixing with American. :P

As deplorable as John Edwards is, he never raped anyone.  I mean, as Chris Rock once said, rape is number 2 on the scale of bad things.  There's murder, then there's rape.  This isn't a standard scandal at all...outside of Moshe Katsav, I can't name a prominent politician this past decade brought up on rape charges (one of you will prove me wrong).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 15, 2011, 04:48:43 AM
The idea that people are too rational to do stupid stuff when running for office has never been correct. Look at John Edwards, Tiger Woods, Richard Nixon and so on and so forth.

But I suppose it might be French customs not really mixing with American. :P

As deplorable as John Edwards is, he never raped anyone.  I mean, as Chris Rock once said, rape is number 2 on the scale of bad things.  There's murder, then there's rape.  This isn't a standard scandal at all...outside of Moshe Katsav, I can't name a prominent politician this past decade brought up on rape charges (one of you will prove me wrong).

That's irrelevant as regards questions of intelligence though.

I don't want to be bigoted but what is rape in NY might not be considered rape by a French bigshot.

As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady. I'm sure our charming resident sexists can add on similar ideas.

My high school French teacher worked as an au pair in France and the dad of that family tried to force himself on her. It was no biggie in his eyes.

(and, I can mention Zuma to prove you wrong)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 15, 2011, 07:14:05 AM
I don't want to be bigoted but what is rape in NY might not be considered rape by a French bigshot.

As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady. I'm sure our charming resident sexists can add on similar ideas.

My high school French teacher worked as an au pair in France and the dad of that family tried to force himself on her. It was no biggie in his eyes.

(and, I can mention Zuma to prove you wrong)

Thank you Gustaf for providing your usual stereotypes. And no, your now famous French teacher isn't an evidence of anything.

If you're interested in discussing about facts, let us know.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 15, 2011, 07:19:11 AM
The idea that people are too rational to do stupid stuff when running for office has never been correct. Look at John Edwards, Tiger Woods, Richard Nixon and so on and so forth.

But I suppose it might be French customs not really mixing with American. :P

As deplorable as John Edwards is, he never raped anyone.  I mean, as Chris Rock once said, rape is number 2 on the scale of bad things.  There's murder, then there's rape.  This isn't a standard scandal at all...outside of Moshe Katsav, I can't name a prominent politician this past decade brought up on rape charges (one of you will prove me wrong).

That's irrelevant as regards questions of intelligence though.

I don't want to be bigoted but what is rape in NY might not be considered rape by a French bigshot.

As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady. I'm sure our charming resident sexists can add on similar ideas.

My high school French teacher worked as an au pair in France and the dad of that family tried to force himself on her. It was no biggie in his eyes.

(and, I can mention Zuma to prove you wrong)

WTF are you talking about? Rape is rape, period. We aren't talking here about an Arab seikh or an African king where the cultures about the role of woman are vastly different.
We are talking about a French politician, who already had trouble in the past with sexual scandals, so he could hardly consider himself above suspicion.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 15, 2011, 08:52:53 AM
Of course, in France, sex-related scandals don't usually have any influence.
But this is a little bit different, as it's not just betraying his wife, it might be a sexual aggression.
Our society is so perverse and the media world is so corrupting and so many people now know how to use it for their own advantage (when you're a "victim", you can "write" a book, sell your story for TV biopics, etc.) that I can't believe it's true.
Maybe the woman knew his past of divorces and mistresses make her story easier to believe.

But this "story" is now all around French medias. Goebbels is always proved right nowadays.

What is more, Libération has already written an Internet column saying this is over for him... "A huge waste"...
That makes me say that DSK is attacked not from the right, but from the left and the far-left.
And Aubry will try to benefit from it, that's what I find worrying.

What I find disgusting is that the same who tried to protect this piece of crap of Assante (and piece of crap not because he is so-called sexually harrassed some girl) are now so hungry to finish DSK off...

I don't see how DSK will be able to save his image and his good polls.
His strategy was to stay in the IMF until at least the end of May or even the end of June, to burnish his international image.
Well, even the IMF is over for him, now.

I'm a UMP-PCD member, but I'm sad today.
The problem is that, in our media system, we can't believe anything from anyone any longer....
(of course, if it's true, it's disgusting, but it's not, it's equally disgusting)



I really hope Hollande will be the winner now, and not these stupid Aubry and Hamon.
But it happens a bit too early for Hollande: he has the momentum but not enough to be sure to trounce Aubry.
And DSK followers are really angry those days at Hollande.
There is a risk of "anybody but Hollande" right now.

Royal will think she has chances again. And she wants to kill her "old sweety François".
DSK followers are, for some of them, less social-democrat than Hollande himself and will join Aubry more easily.
The left of the party will be very happy.
And Aubry will say: "now, this is the party's superior interest which is at stake, let's have its first secretary be candidate..."
And she was the only one to talk with DSK by phone every week, remember ?

And what about Fabius ? ;) :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Verily on May 15, 2011, 10:59:30 AM
People still think that sex scandals matter in France as much as they do in the US.

If he's in prison in New York, he can't campaign in France.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 15, 2011, 11:04:34 AM
Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Frodo on May 15, 2011, 11:07:47 AM
So what does all this mean for President Sarkozy and the UMP?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on May 15, 2011, 11:08:51 AM
People still think that sex scandals matter in France as much as they do in the US.

If he's in prison in New York, he can't campaign in France.

And if this turns out to be true.....calling it simply a "sex scandal" isn't really right.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 15, 2011, 11:09:22 AM
Still not all the results, but this was the latest poll, by IFOP, for Le JDD, yesterday (it was before the affair, but don't know when exactly; 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010)

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23
Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

I'll re-post it when it's complete,
but still the same conclusions: nothing is done for the first 2 places, Hollande slightly on the rise, DSK already down, Hulot high and dangerous for the PS, NPA very low without Besancenot.

Some different trends: Borloo not so successful, Villepin very low, Le Pen on the rise again (so Sarkozy is again ousted even if slightly less bad).

And LOL at Chevènement's attempt to come back.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 15, 2011, 11:16:06 AM
Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl ;D and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin :P).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Verily on May 15, 2011, 11:22:45 AM
Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl ;D and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin :P).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on May 15, 2011, 11:24:00 AM

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

Haven't thought of that.....but, unfortunately, probably true ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 15, 2011, 11:26:27 AM
Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl ;D and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin :P).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

It seems that medias from all over the world, including the US, have big titles on this.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 15, 2011, 11:27:46 AM
Meh, yeah, I don't know what to think too. It could be a conspiracy, it could be true, it could be anything... But in these situations you are always presumed guilty.

What I feel the most shameful is those who say "even if he's innoncent, it's over for him". That might be factually true (one month left for primary candidacies), but it strikes me as horrendously cynical.

If it's a lie, I can only pray for it to be discovered quickly. If he is rehabilitated, he should have no reason to abandon the race. But sadly that doesn't seem to be happening.

Disgusting in any case.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on May 15, 2011, 11:28:15 AM
Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl ;D and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin :P).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

It seems that medias from all over the world, including the US, have big titles on this.

After it happened, though. I'm certain many if not most New Yorkers have only heard of his name since this news item came out.

Why should some random hotel maid get such an idea?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Frodo on May 15, 2011, 11:34:54 AM
Still not all the results, but this was the latest poll, by IFOP, for Le JDD, yesterday (it was before the affair, but don't know when exactly; 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010)

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23
Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

I'll re-post it when it's complete,
but still the same conclusions: nothing is done for the first 2 places, Hollande slightly on the rise, DSK already down, Hulot high and dangerous for the PS, NPA very low without Besancenot.

Some different trends: Borloo not so successful, Villepin very low, Le Pen on the rise again (so Sarkozy is again ousted even if slightly less bad).

And LOL at Chevènement's attempt to come back.


So Sarkozy (and the UMP by extension) is screwed no matter what. 


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 15, 2011, 11:36:20 AM
Still not all the results, but this was the latest poll, by IFOP, for Le JDD, yesterday (it was before the affair, but don't know when exactly; 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010)

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23
Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

I'll re-post it when it's complete,
but still the same conclusions: nothing is done for the first 2 places, Hollande slightly on the rise, DSK already down, Hulot high and dangerous for the PS, NPA very low without Besancenot.

Some different trends: Borloo not so successful, Villepin very low, Le Pen on the rise again (so Sarkozy is again ousted even if slightly less bad).

And LOL at Chevènement's attempt to come back.


So Sarkozy (and the UMP by extension) is screwed no matter what. 

All the polls aren't so clear, but it's anyway razor-thin for him.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on May 15, 2011, 11:44:52 AM
Still not all the results, but this was the latest poll, by IFOP, for Le JDD, yesterday (it was before the affair, but don't know when exactly; 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010)

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23
Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

I'll re-post it when it's complete,
but still the same conclusions: nothing is done for the first 2 places, Hollande slightly on the rise, DSK already down, Hulot high and dangerous for the PS, NPA very low without Besancenot.

Some different trends: Borloo not so successful, Villepin very low, Le Pen on the rise again (so Sarkozy is again ousted even if slightly less bad).

And LOL at Chevènement's attempt to come back.


So Sarkozy (and the UMP by extension) is screwed no matter what. 

Yeah, ask President Balladur and President Jospin for more information on that.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Verily on May 15, 2011, 12:14:37 PM
Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl ;D and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin :P).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

It seems that medias from all over the world, including the US, have big titles on this.

Doesn't mean anyone knew who he was beforehand--certainly not anyone who isn't involved in international law/finance/journalism (like a hotel worker). It's just a juicy story. Also, had he been arrested in, say, Moscow, the American media would barely care at all.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 15, 2011, 12:50:26 PM
Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl ;D and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin :P).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

It seems that medias from all over the world, including the US, have big titles on this.

Doesn't mean anyone knew who he was beforehand--certainly not anyone who isn't involved in international law/finance/journalism (like a hotel worker). It's just a juicy story. Also, had he been arrested in, say, Moscow, the American media would barely care at all.
Well, if DSK is out, is Hollande the next obvious front-runner?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 15, 2011, 03:13:47 PM
Just read some posts above in this thread.

It's not so obvious.
Hollande is on the rise and may naturally bring some moderate socialists with him.
But, among the apparatchiki, he is not loved by DSK supporters, who may join Aubry.

As Aubry controls the machine, the apparatus and has the support of all the left of the party, plus Fabius, plus Delanoë, she has a central positioning which is a real strength. I keep repeating it: without DSK (and I said this before all this mess), Aubry is very well positioned.
Hollande is a bit too much on the right.

So, it may be a "anyone but Hollande" campaign now.
Only Royal will not choose between the 2. Royal hates Aubry, but she also hates her ex-husband Hollande. But, in a second round (as thre wouldn't be a winner in the first round among those 3, plus some other contenders), Royal voters may well switch to Aubry more than to Hollande.

The great asset of Hollande now is that he has a positive media image.
Even though Libération and Le Nouvel Obs (and all the leftists from Mediapart and Rue89) may well support Aubry.

BUT.... DSK is still here. He isn't guilty of anything for the moment. So, wait and see.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: The Mikado on May 15, 2011, 03:51:16 PM
Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl ;D and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin :P).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

It seems that medias from all over the world, including the US, have big titles on this.

Doesn't mean anyone knew who he was beforehand--certainly not anyone who isn't involved in international law/finance/journalism (like a hotel worker). It's just a juicy story. Also, had he been arrested in, say, Moscow, the American media would barely care at all.

Aren't hotels inclined to tell their staff if their guest is a bigshot, to make sure they get the best service possible?  "The Head of the International Monetary Fund, likely to be the next President of France, is in room XYZ."


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 15, 2011, 04:06:27 PM
Still not all the results, but this was the latest poll, by IFOP, for Le JDD, yesterday (it was before the affair, but don't know when exactly; 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010)

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23
Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

I'll re-post it when it's complete,
but still the same conclusions: nothing is done for the first 2 places, Hollande slightly on the rise, DSK already down, Hulot high and dangerous for the PS, NPA very low without Besancenot.

Some different trends: Borloo not so successful, Villepin very low, Le Pen on the rise again (so Sarkozy is again ousted even if slightly less bad).

And LOL at Chevènement's attempt to come back.


I haven't said that Le Pen is on the rise again, probably because... Besancenot isn't a candidate any longer !

I've already underlined this direct relation between far-left and far-right and this seems to be right again (Panzergirl is at 40% among bluecollars and is first among employees...).
It's confirmed.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 15, 2011, 04:10:36 PM
People still think that sex scandals matter in France as much as they do in the US.

Isn't there a little difference between an affair and (if this is true, of course) rape attempt?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: beneficii on May 15, 2011, 04:51:57 PM
Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl ;D and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin :P).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

It seems that medias from all over the world, including the US, have big titles on this.

Doesn't mean anyone knew who he was beforehand--certainly not anyone who isn't involved in international law/finance/journalism (like a hotel worker). It's just a juicy story. Also, had he been arrested in, say, Moscow, the American media would barely care at all.

Aren't hotels inclined to tell their staff if their guest is a bigshot, to make sure they get the best service possible?  "The Head of the International Monetary Fund, likely to be the next President of France, is in room XYZ."

The police say she was told the room was unoccupied.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 15, 2011, 05:23:47 PM
The idea that people are too rational to do stupid stuff when running for office has never been correct. Look at John Edwards, Tiger Woods, Richard Nixon and so on and so forth.

But I suppose it might be French customs not really mixing with American. :P

As deplorable as John Edwards is, he never raped anyone.  I mean, as Chris Rock once said, rape is number 2 on the scale of bad things.  There's murder, then there's rape.  This isn't a standard scandal at all...outside of Moshe Katsav, I can't name a prominent politician this past decade brought up on rape charges (one of you will prove me wrong).

That's irrelevant as regards questions of intelligence though.

I don't want to be bigoted but what is rape in NY might not be considered rape by a French bigshot.

As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady. I'm sure our charming resident sexists can add on similar ideas.

My high school French teacher worked as an au pair in France and the dad of that family tried to force himself on her. It was no biggie in his eyes.

(and, I can mention Zuma to prove you wrong)

WTF are you talking about? Rape is rape, period. We aren't talking here about an Arab seikh or an African king where the cultures about the role of woman are vastly different.
We are talking about a French politician, who already had trouble in the past with sexual scandals, so he could hardly consider himself above suspicion.

You don't think there is a difference in the role of a woman between different "Western" countries? As a Swede, I can assure you there is.

I mean, I think this act (as described in the media) is rape, but I'm not a powerful man from a sexist culture. We have several wonderful posters here with views on rape that are, well, different from mine.



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 15, 2011, 05:24:49 PM
I don't want to be bigoted but what is rape in NY might not be considered rape by a French bigshot.

As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady. I'm sure our charming resident sexists can add on similar ideas.

My high school French teacher worked as an au pair in France and the dad of that family tried to force himself on her. It was no biggie in his eyes.

(and, I can mention Zuma to prove you wrong)

Thank you Gustaf for providing your usual stereotypes. And no, your now famous French teacher isn't an evidence of anything.

If you're interested in discussing about facts, let us know.

Thank you Antonio for providing your usual arrogant stupidity.

If you're interested in a civil and intelligent discourse, let me know.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 15, 2011, 05:34:19 PM
Sorry if I don't apreciate people who deem an entire people sexist because of a few things he heard. You have no clue what the heck you are talking about, but you say it as if it were an evidence. This is called bigotry, and I find it interesting it comes from someone who usually points out bigotry in everybody.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Kushahontas on May 15, 2011, 05:44:38 PM
Sorry if I don't apreciate people who deem an entire people sexist because of a few things he heard. You have no clue what the heck you are talking about, but you say it as if it were an evidence. This is called bigotry, and I find it interesting it comes from someone who usually points out bigotry in everybody.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Kushahontas on May 15, 2011, 05:46:45 PM
Sorry if I don't apreciate people who deem an entire people sexist because of a few things he heard. You have no clue what the heck you are talking about, but you say it as if it were an evidence. This is called bigotry, and I find it interesting it comes from someone who usually points out bigotry in everybody.

ikr, surely it wasn't the perpetrator's fault...let's imply it was more the victim's fault and craft this up to be one huge misunderstanding in cultural relativism.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 15, 2011, 05:48:13 PM
Quote
As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady.

I don't think that saying is condoning rape; it's just describing how social interaction generally works.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 15, 2011, 06:37:07 PM
Sorry if I don't apreciate people who deem an entire people sexist because of a few things he heard. You have no clue what the heck you are talking about, but you say it as if it were an evidence. This is called bigotry, and I find it interesting it comes from someone who usually points out bigotry in everybody.

I must have missed the part where I called an entire people sexist. A country having a sexist culture isn't the same as everyone in it being sexist. I would have thought that rather obvious.

And while I realize you may be blind to it, being French and all, France is known to be a pretty sexist nation. Not as bad as most non-industrialized nations of course, but still.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 15, 2011, 06:38:10 PM
Sorry if I don't apreciate people who deem an entire people sexist because of a few things he heard. You have no clue what the heck you are talking about, but you say it as if it were an evidence. This is called bigotry, and I find it interesting it comes from someone who usually points out bigotry in everybody.

ikr, surely it wasn't the perpetrator's fault...let's imply it was more the victim's fault and craft this up to be one huge misunderstanding in cultural relativism.

I hope you're not implying that that is what I'm implying. Because it isn't.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 15, 2011, 06:39:36 PM
Quote
As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady.

I don't think that saying is condoning rape; it's just describing how social interaction generally works.

For rapists, maybe.

No, but, seriously it's an extremely sexist attitude obviously. And its logical conclusion is the occasional rape.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: The Mikado on May 15, 2011, 07:07:06 PM
Quote
As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady.

I don't think that saying is condoning rape; it's just describing how social interaction generally works.

Well, the fact that that saying is usually attributed to legendary misogynist Bismarck might hint that it does.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Sam Spade on May 15, 2011, 07:30:42 PM
Folks, 10 will get you 20 that the maid couldn't respond to DSK in any verbal manner even if she wanted to, unless she was Haitian, or something.  Maybe.

Second, when you start doing things that only George Constanza would do, it is painfully clear that you're not qualified to do much of anything.

Third, the idea that this news story is only deserving of being reported within the elections thread of a separate board is a determination only worthy of fascists, sexual deviants and perverts, much like DSK.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RodPresident on May 15, 2011, 07:41:00 PM
Now, PS can go to a crazy contest. Delanöe can go back to game, while Hollande and Aubry are gaining strength (even before this scandal, they could defeat DSK). Royal, with seek of revenge, can go even to a independent candidacy to destroy PS chances. It looks by now, that Mr. Sarko can get to run-off with Panzergirl.
My dream would be Royal going to the way of her family and making a surprise endorsement to Marine. It would give legitimacy to her with mainstream politicians.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: ag on May 15, 2011, 08:54:54 PM
My dream would be Royal going to the way of her family and making a surprise endorsement to Marine. It would give legitimacy to her with mainstream politicians.

That would be a lot more shocking and unexpected than DSK going around raping chambermaids. Probably, more worthy of condemnation as well.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 15, 2011, 11:16:15 PM
Sorry if I don't apreciate people who deem an entire people sexist because of a few things he heard. You have no clue what the heck you are talking about, but you say it as if it were an evidence. This is called bigotry, and I find it interesting it comes from someone who usually points out bigotry in everybody.

I must have missed the part where I called an entire people sexist. A country having a sexist culture isn't the same as everyone in it being sexist. I would have thought that rather obvious.

And while I realize you may be blind to it, being French and all, France is known to be a pretty sexist nation. Not as bad as most non-industrialized nations of course, but still.

Wow. Must I remember you a thread about Israel where I was in the same situation than you? You can't condemn me and trying to defend you from the same thing at the same time.

Well, DSK is probably out of the race, which is good, since IMF ran neo-liberal politics. French left doesn't need to be a soft copy of the right.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Jackson on May 16, 2011, 01:35:30 AM
What would be the result of a presidential election in the second round between a Socialist candidate from the parties' left wing and the National Front?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Dan the Roman on May 16, 2011, 01:57:37 AM
What would be the result of a presidential election in the second round between a Socialist candidate from the parties' left wing and the National Front?

Probably 69-31 or so. Unless its Royale in which case Le Pen might get to 37-38%%.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 16, 2011, 02:05:36 AM
IFOP poll for Paris-Match and Europe 1, 20-21 April, sample 917

(...)

Sarkozy - Le Pen 73 - 27 (which is better for Panzergirl than for Daddy in 2002)

DSK - Le Pen 75- 25
Hollande - Le Pen 72 - 28
Aubry - Le Pen 69 - 31

No Royal-Le Pen, but, considering Aubry is "only" at 69 %, we can assume Royal is at 65%, at most.

Please see above.

All the presidential polls are published here, as soon as they are available in a complete manner.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 16, 2011, 02:33:30 AM
IFOP poll for Le Journal du Dimanche, 10-12 May 2011, 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010

Here we are.

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23

Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

In fact, they haven't tested Aubry...

So, yes, Marion "Marine" Le Pen is on the rise again due to Besancenot's decision not to run.
Another evidence that, if Sarkozy has lost his 2007 gains, the PS is unable to reach to popular electorate.

In another hypothesis, without Villepin and Dupont-Aignan, it was DSK and Bayrou who gained... A bit surprising, but another evidence that DSK was high because he was able to gather voters from the centre-right.

DSK 28
Le Pen 22.5
Sarkozy 22
Bayrou 7
Borloo 6.5
Hulot 6
Mélenchon 5.5
Chevènement 1
NPA candidate 1
Arthaud 0.5

Now, without DSK, we'll probably go back to a classical fight.

Sarkozy must be above Le Pen, so he'll keep on a far-rightist strategy, hoping that Borloo won't make him too bad. Bayrou may become an objective ally of Sarkozy, like in 2007, by weakening the left, especially if it's Aubry.

Hulot will become even more a problem for the socialists, who will try to influence the Green primary to kill him. And with the current system, Hulot is far from sure to be nominated as theri candidate.

A re-run of  2007 campaign and strategies, with more uncertain results and final results as in 2002 ? :P

The problem for Sarkozy is that, even if he eventually wins, he won't have a majority in the National Assembly, as hate is so deep towards him...

At least, suspense is back in the 2012 French elections.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 16, 2011, 02:34:12 AM
NYPD now changing its version... ::)

Could he be acquitted before the deadline for primary candidacies ? Of course I know the chances are tiny, but I need to believe in it.


I must have missed the part where I called an entire people sexist. A country having a sexist culture isn't the same as everyone in it being sexist. I would have thought that rather obvious.

And while I realize you may be blind to it, being French and all, France is known to be a pretty sexist nation. Not as bad as most non-industrialized nations of course, but still.

That sounds pretty much like I've nothing against Arabs as people, but... you know, their culture bla bla. You strike me as a guy who knows nothing about a place and still makes bold statements like this :

I don't want to be bigoted but what is rape in NY might not be considered rape by a French bigshot.


You are judging a guy you know nothing about, based only upon the fact he is French. Classy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on May 16, 2011, 02:39:41 AM
What's different about NYPD's story now?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 16, 2011, 02:51:12 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #2 - 16 May 2011

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly.

I've said that I'd keep 3 trackers with DSK, Aubry and Hollande, until the scene is clearer.
My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is already changed: 0.1 instead of 0.6 DSK, 0.5 instead of 0.3 Hollande and 0.4 instead of 0.1 Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate (I've said that this ponderation would change quickly and periodically... wow... I wasn't aware how right it could be).

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and will lose a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; etc).
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)



16 May DSK sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,79
NPA   2,48
Mélenchon   4,75
Chevènement   0,98
DSK   26,02
Hulot   8,21
Bayrou   5,70
Borloo   6,53
Villepin   4,33
Sarkozy   19,51
Dupont-Aignan   0,87
Le Pen   19,83



16 May Aubry sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,64
NPA   2,93
Mélenchon   4,41
Chevènement   0,90
Aubry   21,17
Hulot   8,65
Bayrou   6,31
Borloo   10,03
Villepin   4,50
Sarkozy   19,96
Dupont-Aignan   1,00
Le Pen   19,49



16 May Hollande sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,68
NPA   2,37
Mélenchon   4,61
Chevènement   1,10
Hollande   22,01
Hulot   8,36
Bayrou   6,11
Borloo   8,18
Villepin   4,40
Sarkozy   20,37
Dupont-Aignan   0,83
Le Pen   20,97



16 May generic socialist sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,68
NPA   2,61
Mélenchon   4,55
Chevènement   1,01
PS   22,07
Hulot   8,46
Bayrou   6,15
Borloo   8,76
Villepin   4,44
Sarkozy   20,12
Dupont-Aignan   0,90
Le Pen   20,26

Even slightly on the rise, Sarkozy is still not able to be above Le Pen.
NPA candidate is gradually fading away.
Things are more levelled in the centre ground.
The aggregate PS candidate is of course lower, with DSK being hugely minored now.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 16, 2011, 03:02:13 AM
What's different about NYPD's story now?

Apparently he didn't "left the hotel precipitously" as it has been said. He even went to a restaurant before embarking in the plane.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 16, 2011, 03:05:00 AM
Just for the record, with 2 weeks of Big Bad Tracker ;)

9 May   16 May   
0,9   0,79   Arthaud
3,19   2,48   NPA
4,47   4,75   Mélenchon
0,9   0,98   Chevènement
26,19   26,02   DSK
8,54   8,21   Hulot
5,67   5,70   Bayrou
6,84   6,53   Borloo
4,46   4,33   Villepin
18,77   19,51   Sarkozy
1   0,87   Dupont-Aignan
19,07   19,83   Le Pen

0,64   0,64   Arthaud
3,12   2,93   NPA
4,41   4,41   Mélenchon
0,82   0,90   Chevènement
21,26   21,17   Aubry
8,55   8,65   Hulot
6,23   6,31   Bayrou
9,83   10,03   Borloo
4,61   4,50   Villepin
19,96   19,96   Sarkozy
0,98   1,00   Dupont-Aignan
19,59   19,49   Le Pen

0,79   0,68   Arthaud
3,14   2,37   NPA
4,43   4,61   Mélenchon
0,86   1,10   Chevènement
21,5   22,01   Hollande
8,71   8,36   Hulot
6,14   6,11   Bayrou
9   8,18   Borloo
4,86   4,40   Villepin
19,57   20,37   Sarkozy
1   0,83   Dupont-Aignan
20   20,97   Le Pen

0,8   0,7   Arthaud
3,2   2,6   NPA
4,4   4,5   Mélenchon
0,9   1,0   Chevènement
24,2   22,1   PS
8,6   8,5   Hulot
5,9   6,2   Bayrou
8,0   8,8   Borloo
4,6   4,5   Villepin
19,2   20,1   Sarkozy
1,0   0,9   Dupont-Aignan
19,2   20,2   Le Pen


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on May 16, 2011, 03:06:05 AM
What's different about NYPD's story now?

Apparently he didn't "left the hotel precipitously" as it has been said. He even went to a restaurant before embarking in the plane.

OK. Although why did he leave his personal belongings in the hotel room? Don't think this is a game changing detail, honestly.

Innocent until proven guilty....but we'll see.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 16, 2011, 03:48:37 AM
Fab, I tried to compile your tracker's results on excel and noticed that some of them (the Aubry one last week, Aubry and DSK today) add up to 100.27%. That's not a big deal, but maybe there's something to fix. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 16, 2011, 04:38:57 AM
Thank you, Antonio... I'm really sorry :(, it's fixed now :P.

Just 2 mistakes on Villepin and Le Pen in 2 different polls: I've added one more point to each of them.
(and don't take too much attention to the generic PS tracker, as it appears as rounded, but I've taken precise intermediate results)

It's probably a conspiracy to destroy the grrrrrrrrreat scientific value of this tracker.
I'm considering a sue !!!!! ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 16, 2011, 05:39:14 AM
Rue89 has now a very detailed story on Tristane Banon, daughter of Anne Mansouret, a local PS politician from Eure and also one of this series of very small candidates to the PS primary.

I guess that if Libération's title is "DSK out" and if Rue89 writes on all the past sex affairs of DSK, it's really over for him.

Even Aurélie Filipetti, socialist and ex-Green MP, had said she was "pressed" by DSK and took care of not staying alone with him.

Well, the right has nothing to do... just to look at this self-destruction.
The big fear is of course that it would be Panzergirl and not the right that could be a big winner after this new sequence.

Reasonably, Hulot and Borloo should be boosted a bit, but Le Pen may well be solidifying her high support... Sigh...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 16, 2011, 06:02:42 AM
It's not complete yet, but there was a Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien (13-14 May, sample 1050) for PS primaries:

among the whole sample / among socialists
DSK 34 / 41
Hollande 24 / 25
Aubry 18 / 16

Hollande should be the internal winner, as he has not the burden of trying to keep socialists' unity and as Aubry will appear as candidate by default.
She has an angry personality and Hollande connects well with people, especially journalists...

But, still, let's be cautious: I've already said and said again that she is strategically at the centre of the PS.

Delanoë (and even Fabius) may be regretting to have supported Aubry so early... They could have become ideal "new" candidates... (even though Fabius has gathered too many enemies from all sides inside the party)

Of course, Jospin would be even more successful inside the party now, with its old man's wiseness and his personal integrity....
(sorry to be unwillingly so rude to you, Antonio ;) but that's just true, I think)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 16, 2011, 06:14:21 AM
Updated the numbers : all works, except last week's Aubry, which now lacks 0.1 points. ;)


That's looking bleaker and bleaker. I still think he is innocent, and the justice will recognize it. But the voters never will... But honestly, part of myself wishes he is guilty, because if he isn't what's happening to him (and to France) is really horrible.

LOL@ Bernard Debré, what a bastard.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 16, 2011, 09:08:47 AM
Back online for a brief period (maybe). Has this (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13411463) been posted yet?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 16, 2011, 09:13:42 AM
Well... I've corrected too much: 4.61 and not 4.50 for Villepin in 9 May Aubry sub-tracker...



Reading what I've read on past affairs, I'm afraid he may be guilty.

You are right: better that he's guilty in a way...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 16, 2011, 09:46:22 AM
Anyways, I think Gustaf has a point. I can understand that it might be an uncomfortable one and it could do with a few additional caveats, but there's a fundamental truth there, like it or not. Roman Polanski did something far worse than anything DSK has been accused of, after all.

To make some related points...

1. The essentially deferential (certainly from a British point of view) that the French media takes towards the private lives of powerful men in France means this sort of thing should not, perhaps, come as a total shock. Why? Because if you know that you can do (almost) anything that you want and get away with it, then there's a good chance that you will. Of course some powerful men will act terribly in their private lives regardless of the threat level, but the line is in a different place.

2. I think I read somewhere that this was a $3,000-a-night suite. First off, that's insane. Secondly... well... there is a certain sort of man who would probably consider that a right to mess with female staff members comes with the a price tag that absurd.

3. It's actually quite unusual for women to make up stories like this about powerful men. Now that goes against what we assume, but it's where the evidence is. For what that's worth.

4. Although DSK seems like a big loss politically speaking, he probably isn't. Why? Because if he is capable of errors in judgment on this titanic scale in his private life (and no matter whether the charges are true - though they probably are - he has certainly made huge errors of judgment along the way) then he would probably have found a way of cocking up the election anyway. He was probably never the candidate that everyone assumed that he was. Maybe the PS - and those of us who hope to see Sarkozy defeated - have been spared.

5. I don't think all attention should be in this thread; DSK was the head of the IMF as well. At the very least there ought to be something on the economics board (perhaps there is - I've not checked).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 16, 2011, 09:50:05 AM
Third, the idea that this news story is only deserving of being reported within the elections thread of a separate board is a determination only worthy of fascists, sexual deviants and perverts, much like DSK.

I'd rather not have the more lurid details cluttering up this board too much, so... you know...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 16, 2011, 09:57:35 AM
Back online for a brief period (maybe). Has this (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13411463) been posted yet?

Yes, sir, though it was by referring to a French media. Sorry.

Rue89 has now a very detailed story on Tristane Banon, daughter of Anne Mansouret, a local PS politician from Eure and also one of this series of very small candidates to the PS primary.

I guess that if Libération's title is "DSK out" and if Rue89 writes on all the past sex affairs of DSK, it's really over for him.

Even Aurélie Filipetti, socialist and ex-Green MP, had said she was "pressed" by DSK and took care of not staying alone with him.

Well, the right has nothing to do... just to look at this self-destruction.
The big fear is of course that it would be Panzergirl and not the right that could be a big winner after this new sequence.

Reasonably, Hulot and Borloo should be boosted a bit, but Le Pen may well be solidifying her high support... Sigh...



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 16, 2011, 10:02:37 AM
Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien (13-14 May, sample 1050)

among the whole sample / among socialists
DSK 34 / 41
Hollande 24 / 25
Aubry 18 / 16
Royal 11 / 7
Montebourg 5 / 6
Valls 3 / 4
none 3 / 1
don't know 2 / 0

This is now complete and I re-publish it will all the numbers (and a Royal amazingly low).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 16, 2011, 10:20:06 AM
Yes, sir, though it was by referring to a French media. Sorry.

No need for apologies; I hadn't actually read through the thread at the time.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 16, 2011, 10:25:34 AM
Soooooo... François then (ou Segolene ;), lol)?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 16, 2011, 10:29:07 AM
1. The essentially deferential (certainly from a British point of view) that the French media takes towards the private lives of powerful men in France means this sort of thing should not, perhaps, come as a total shock. Why? Because if you know that you can do (almost) anything that you want and get away with it, then there's a good chance that you will. Of course some powerful men will act terribly in their private lives regardless of the threat level, but the line is in a different place.

2. I think I read somewhere that this was a $3,000-a-night suite. First off, that's insane. Secondly... well... there is a certain sort of man who would probably consider that a right to mess with female staff members comes with the a price tag that absurd.

3. It's actually quite unusual for women to make up stories like this about powerful men. Now that goes against what we assume, but it's where the evidence is. For what that's worth.

4. Although DSK seems like a big loss politically speaking, he probably isn't. Why? Because if he is capable of errors in judgment on this titanic scale in his private life (and no matter whether the charges are true - though they probably are - he has certainly made huge errors of judgment along the way) then he would probably have found a way of cocking up the election anyway. He was probably never the candidate that everyone assumed that he was. Maybe the PS - and those of us who hope to see Sarkozy defeated - have been spared.

5. I don't think all attention should be in this thread; DSK was the head of the IMF as well. At the very least there ought to be something on the economics board (perhaps there is - I've not checked).

Those are valid points, if the "affair" had regarded cheating, meeting call-girls or other things like that. Of course a person of his situation can consider he "has the right" to do that (and, to some extent, he indeed has).
However, we are talking about rape here. And we're talking about of a internationally known politician. And we're talking about someone who was preparing a presidential big. And here I have difficulties to immagine such a person couldn't realize what rape could have meant for him. Or that he was ready to take the risk. That doesn't exactly strike me as very credible.

Of course, if this turns out to be true, you're 100% right saying a person like him would be totally unfit as a candidate. But I've still difficulties to believe it.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 16, 2011, 10:35:49 AM
1. The essentially deferential (certainly from a British point of view) that the French media takes towards the private lives of powerful men in France means this sort of thing should not, perhaps, come as a total shock. Why? Because if you know that you can do (almost) anything that you want and get away with it, then there's a good chance that you will. Of course some powerful men will act terribly in their private lives regardless of the threat level, but the line is in a different place.

2. I think I read somewhere that this was a $3,000-a-night suite. First off, that's insane. Secondly... well... there is a certain sort of man who would probably consider that a right to mess with female staff members comes with the a price tag that absurd.

3. It's actually quite unusual for women to make up stories like this about powerful men. Now that goes against what we assume, but it's where the evidence is. For what that's worth.

4. Although DSK seems like a big loss politically speaking, he probably isn't. Why? Because if he is capable of errors in judgment on this titanic scale in his private life (and no matter whether the charges are true - though they probably are - he has certainly made huge errors of judgment along the way) then he would probably have found a way of cocking up the election anyway. He was probably never the candidate that everyone assumed that he was. Maybe the PS - and those of us who hope to see Sarkozy defeated - have been spared.

5. I don't think all attention should be in this thread; DSK was the head of the IMF as well. At the very least there ought to be something on the economics board (perhaps there is - I've not checked).

Those are valid points, if the "affair" had regarded cheating, meeting call-girls or other things like that. Of course a person of his situation can consider he "has the right" to do that (and, to some extent, he indeed has).
However, we are talking about rape here. And we're talking about of a internationally known politician. And we're talking about someone who was preparing a presidential big. And here I have difficulties to immagine such a person couldn't realize what rape could have meant for him. Or that he was ready to take the risk. That doesn't exactly strike me as very credible.

Of course, if this turns out to be true, you're 100% right saying a person like him would be totally unfit as a candidate. But I've still difficulties to believe it.

Literally, just said more or less this to someone about half an hour ago. It just makes no sense! You don't go and rape someone when you're less than a month away from announcing you're running to be president of the 5th biggest economy on the planet. That's just not how it works. That, coupled with the fact that he could be out of the country during the primaries even if he was found not guilty, just make it all too... convenient.

The reports of his casual departure from his hotel and even calling from the airport to ask about his forgotten mobile phone support his innocence.

I'm sure a part-time Spanish Maid in a hotel would take a few thousand dollars from an agent of the the French right to cry rape...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 16, 2011, 10:37:42 AM
I still can't believe someone is capable of the sheer stupidity of raping a hotel maid when he's already a semi-certainty to be the next President of an actually important country like France. So, I'll continue to believe he didn't. (Also, he appearantly has an alibi for the time of the alledged assault now).

If DSK really did this, well,...

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 16, 2011, 10:56:37 AM
The thing is, even if he's found completely not guilty, he's damaged good now. No coming back from this... no doubt the next round of polls will show Hollande ahead.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 16, 2011, 11:08:28 AM
The thing is, even if he's found completely not guilty, he's damaged good now. No coming back from this... no doubt the next round of polls will show Hollande ahead.

The consensus seems to be tha if he convincingly clears himself from this, it could actually boost his numbers. Either way, it's not like he'll even file to run.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 16, 2011, 11:10:45 AM
Obviously we don't know all of the facts, but before people board the train to Conspiracy Theory Central (change at Crewe), some points to remember:

1. That DSK has what might be called a somewhat predatory attitude to women is well known and, lo, there have now been other accusations.

2. It is - as noted already - very unusual for women to make up this sort of thing about powerful men. That might seem counter-intuitive, but that's the direction in which the evidence stacks up.

3. If this is the work of some conspiracy somewhere, it is a remarkably competent and efficient one. It is not easy to make up credible charges involving sexual violence. And these are credible charges, no matter how this ends.

Even if there are technicalities that let him off, even if it was the work of a conspiracy after all, this all looks really bad. I agree that it does seem magnificently fortunate for Sarkozy and it is certainly an extraordinary story, but you should never underestimate human stupidity. Or forget that the only people who act in a perfectly rational (from their point of view) manner at all times are often given a label that begins with 's' and ends with 'path'.

That's all for now. Please keep matters civilised here; I'm not online as much as I'd like right now.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Grumpier Than Uncle Joe on May 16, 2011, 11:27:52 AM
Third, the idea that this news story is only deserving of being reported within the elections thread of a separate board is a determination only worthy of fascists, sexual deviants and perverts, much like DSK.

I'd rather not have the more lurid details cluttering up this board too much, so... you know...

Which is why we should have a thread in the International General Discussion Board.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Sam Spade on May 16, 2011, 11:29:34 AM
Third, the idea that this news story is only deserving of being reported within the elections thread of a separate board is a determination only worthy of fascists, sexual deviants and perverts, much like DSK.

I'd rather not have the more lurid details cluttering up this board too much, so... you know...

Which is why we should have a thread in the International General Discussion Board.

There was, but if someone locks one thread, what will happen to the other?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 16, 2011, 11:43:33 AM
Caution denied.

Sorry, but I can't help thinking that there's some unusual doggedness from the American institutions in this affair. Imagining that he could flee is just ridiculous. Add this that there are huge unclarities in the police's versions...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 16, 2011, 11:45:48 AM
Imagining that he could flee is just ridiculous.

Sure...

He has money, he can flee if he wants.
Some people just don't want to go in jail.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Sam Spade on May 16, 2011, 11:46:30 AM
Update:  No bail - DSK remanded to custody.  Prosecutors said he was flight risk, and they won.  Goes before grand jury on May 20.

As to the actual charges - believe what you want folks, but the cops have a lot of physical evidence.  That seems apparent.

Al is right on the fact that this type of incident rarely occurs with a powerful man.

Also, my friends in the DA's department have long told me that those who are guilty try to act normally after committing the crime - so I would not necessarily read the "call on the plane" or "lunch with the daughter" positively.

That being said - innocent until proven guilty.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 16, 2011, 11:51:14 AM
Imagining that he could flee is just ridiculous.

Sure...

He has money, he can flee if he wants.
Some people just don't want to go in jail.

It would make him definitely guilty and as popular as Hitler - yes, in France too. If he wants a future, he has no choice but staying.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 16, 2011, 11:53:09 AM
Imagining that he could flee is just ridiculous.

Sure...

He has money, he can flee if he wants.
Some people just don't want to go in jail.

It would make him definitely guilty and as popular as Hitler - yes, in France too. If he wants a future, he has no choice but staying.

Well, people are often not rationnal in situations like that.
They panick and do something stupid.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 16, 2011, 12:00:19 PM
I'm sure he is very lucid instead. Not panicked, but downhearted.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 16, 2011, 12:15:56 PM
Update:  No bail - DSK remanded to custody.  Prosecutors said he was flight risk, and they won.  Goes before grand jury on May 20.

As to the actual charges - believe what you want folks, but the cops have a lot of physical evidence.  That seems apparent.

Al is right on the fact that this type of incident rarely occurs with a powerful man.

Also, my friends in the DA's department have long told me that those who are guilty try to act normally after committing the crime - so I would not necessarily read the "call on the plane" or "lunch with the daughter" positively.

That being said - innocent until proven guilty.

Ahh, but the lunch thing was supposed to have been at the time the incident was supposed to have happened.

And anyway, you'd think these hotels would have security cameras. Or is all that too nanny-state Britain?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 16, 2011, 12:19:15 PM
Sorry if I don't apreciate people who deem an entire people sexist because of a few things he heard. You have no clue what the heck you are talking about, but you say it as if it were an evidence. This is called bigotry, and I find it interesting it comes from someone who usually points out bigotry in everybody.

I must have missed the part where I called an entire people sexist. A country having a sexist culture isn't the same as everyone in it being sexist. I would have thought that rather obvious.

And while I realize you may be blind to it, being French and all, France is known to be a pretty sexist nation. Not as bad as most non-industrialized nations of course, but still.

Wow. Must I remember you a thread about Israel where I was in the same situation than you? You can't condemn me and trying to defend you from the same thing at the same time.

Well, DSK is probably out of the race, which is good, since IMF ran neo-liberal politics. French left doesn't need to be a soft copy of the right.

You said that "an Israeli" will always spin things in favour of the Israeli government and then went on to argue that Israelis were guilty of the actions of their government. It was blatantly anti-semitic and rather disgusting.

I never claimed all French people were sexist. That would be pretty ridiculous. I was making a sarcastic remark on sexism in general and in sexist cultures in particular.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 16, 2011, 12:28:05 PM
NYPD now changing its version... ::)

Could he be acquitted before the deadline for primary candidacies ? Of course I know the chances are tiny, but I need to believe in it.


I must have missed the part where I called an entire people sexist. A country having a sexist culture isn't the same as everyone in it being sexist. I would have thought that rather obvious.

And while I realize you may be blind to it, being French and all, France is known to be a pretty sexist nation. Not as bad as most non-industrialized nations of course, but still.

That sounds pretty much like I've nothing against Arabs as people, but... you know, their culture bla bla. You strike me as a guy who knows nothing about a place and still makes bold statements like this :

I don't want to be bigoted but what is rape in NY might not be considered rape by a French bigshot.


You are judging a guy you know nothing about, based only upon the fact he is French. Classy.

Where did I judge anyone? And how is a statement with a "might" in it bold in any way?

My post was mostly a joke - which should have been pretty clear from the wording. The main point was that powerful men, especially in sexist cultures, tend to feel a sense of entitlement to women. This is a fairly common occurrence and obviously doesn't get reported in most cases.

France is a culture well-known for that attitude, so I thought DSK living up to the stereotype was amusing. I read an essay in Sweden's biggest newspaper just the other day from a woman about how unnerving it was to walk the streets of Paris because of the different attitude towards women there. 

Of course, most cultures are sexist to some degree and many worse than France.

What I'm not sure of is exactly where you disagree with me. You've insinuated that I'm racist and not knowledgeable enough on France but that seems a bit irrelevant.

Do you disagree that powerful male politicians are often sexist and that this is more prevalent in sexist cultures and that France is a fairly sexist culture?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 16, 2011, 12:30:05 PM
Imagining that he could flee is just ridiculous.

Sure...

He has money, he can flee if he wants.
Some people just don't want to go in jail.

It would make him definitely guilty and as popular as Hitler - yes, in France too. If he wants a future, he has no choice but staying.

If he is guilty, then he has no future anyway, but fleeing back to France could keep him out of jail.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 16, 2011, 12:32:47 PM
Imagining that he could flee is just ridiculous.

Sure...

He has money, he can flee if he wants.
Some people just don't want to go in jail.

It would make him definitely guilty and as popular as Hitler - yes, in France too. If he wants a future, he has no choice but staying.

If he is guilty, then he has no future anyway, but fleeing back to France could keep him out of jail.

True, but he probably would still face persecution over the other case?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 16, 2011, 12:39:18 PM
Imagining that he could flee is just ridiculous.

Sure...

He has money, he can flee if he wants.
Some people just don't want to go in jail.

It would make him definitely guilty and as popular as Hitler - yes, in France too. If he wants a future, he has no choice but staying.

If he is guilty, then he has no future anyway, but fleeing back to France could keep him out of jail.

True, but he probably would still face persecution over the other case?

Maybe, maybe not.  In any event, the other case does not seriously impact whether or not he DSK is a flight risk from New York.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: beneficii on May 16, 2011, 01:09:23 PM
Here is a copy of the original criminal complaint:

http://abcnews.go.com/Site/page?id=13612720


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 16, 2011, 01:55:03 PM
What I'm not sure of is exactly where you disagree with me. You've insinuated that I'm racist and not knowledgeable enough on France but that seems a bit irrelevant.

Do you disagree that powerful male politicians are often sexist and that this is more prevalent in sexist cultures and that France is a fairly sexist culture?

I've insinuated that you are prejudiced, and I still think you are.

So to put it clearly :
- I've no idea if "powerful male politicians" tend to be sexist. Overall, a fair number of them probably are. That's still not a reason to call a sexist someone you know nothing about.
- France has a fairly sexist culture ? I've no idea. That's not what I've perceived (and sexism is one of the things that I can't bear, believe me if you want), but I probably lack elements of comparison. The question is : what the hell you exactly know about French culture ? As far as I know, your bold statements seem to be based only on your French teacher and on swedish media. You might be right, but the way you say it makes it ridiculous.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 16, 2011, 02:10:29 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfy6s-_eVOI&feature=player_embedded - There are NO words! hahahaha!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 16, 2011, 03:38:31 PM
Quote
He said he had warned President Nicolas Sarkozy (while they stood side by side at the urinals of the gents during a recent international summit) to stop smearing him over his private life. Strauss-Kahn then volunteered to the journalists a hypothetical example of something that could bring him down: "A woman raped in a parking lot who is promised half a million euros to make up her story."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/16/dominique-strauss-khan-arrest-france

Come oooooon! This is staring us in the face...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 16, 2011, 03:51:46 PM
Quote
He said he had warned President Nicolas Sarkozy (while they stood side by side at the urinals of the gents during a recent international summit) to stop smearing him over his private life. Strauss-Kahn then volunteered to the journalists a hypothetical example of something that could bring him down: "A woman raped in a parking lot who is promised half a million euros to make up her story."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/16/dominique-strauss-khan-arrest-france

Come oooooon! This is staring us in the face...

That's a strong possibility, yeah. If this turns out to be true, some people need to die in a fire quickly.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 16, 2011, 03:56:30 PM
Currently, French TVs have images of DSK in front of the judge and it's repeating all over news channels...

This is really very, very unusual here...

I don't know how people will eventually react.

There may be a reflex of defense, good for the socialists globally speaking.
There may also be a conclusion that, after all, Sarkozy isn't so abnormal and obscene...
There may be people disgusted with politics and joining abstention camp.

Hollande, Borloo, Hulot should be the short-term winners.
Le Pen will solidify more than gain voters.
Sarkozy may be a medium-term winner.
And Aubry is quite strong now if (a big if) she has enough tactical maestria.
I really fear she might become our next president... :(
(Please, God, help us :P)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 16, 2011, 04:45:14 PM
Imagining that he could flee is just ridiculous.

Sure...

He has money, he can flee if he wants.
Some people just don't want to go in jail.

It would make him definitely guilty and as popular as Hitler - yes, in France too. If he wants a future, he has no choice but staying.

If he is guilty, then he has no future anyway, but fleeing back to France could keep him out of jail.

How? Can't he be extradited to the States?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Sam Spade on May 16, 2011, 04:58:06 PM
If I came up with half the cockamamie theories about American politicians who commit crimes that are being made by the French and certain posters on this forum to explain how he's not guilty, I'd be laughed off the forum immediately.

Besides, why do certain leftist posters want to defend some rich banker who heads an organization that regularly screws poor countries and poor people for their own benefit?  Hilarious, if you ask me.

As I said before - innocent until proven guilty.  But this ain't some minority in the Bronx being prosecuted - the cops will be quite careful here.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 16, 2011, 05:04:21 PM
What I'm not sure of is exactly where you disagree with me. You've insinuated that I'm racist and not knowledgeable enough on France but that seems a bit irrelevant.

Do you disagree that powerful male politicians are often sexist and that this is more prevalent in sexist cultures and that France is a fairly sexist culture?

I've insinuated that you are prejudiced, and I still think you are.

So to put it clearly :
- I've no idea if "powerful male politicians" tend to be sexist. Overall, a fair number of them probably are. That's still not a reason to call a sexist someone you know nothing about.
- France has a fairly sexist culture ? I've no idea. That's not what I've perceived (and sexism is one of the things that I can't bear, believe me if you want), but I probably lack elements of comparison. The question is : what the hell you exactly know about French culture ? As far as I know, your bold statements seem to be based only on your French teacher and on swedish media. You might be right, but the way you say it makes it ridiculous.

I haven't called any specific person sexist. What I said was that if he turns out to be guilty it would fit a fairly common pattern and thus would not be particularly surprising (in response to people apparently thinking it unbelievable). I don't think that it's very controversial to called the alleged act an indication of sexism.

Sure, my evidence of France being sexist is anecdotal - it's based on personal experiences of people I know, several stories I've seen in the media, the behaviour of many French politicians and the popular reactions to them and so on. Just look at the Polanski case, for example. But what else would it be? You're still to offer any sort of evidence to the contrary or even outright saying that you disagree.

I think that if you want to call me a bigoted idiot for having an opinion you might want to explain why you think I'm wrong.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 16, 2011, 05:10:18 PM
Oh, and the Guardian seems to agree with me:  "How many senior male French politicians aren't either a groper, a cheater, a charmer or a serial seducer? And it goes right to the top of the political class," sighed one news editor. "France is still a kind of monarchy that kept the aristocratic morals of the 18th century. The lord of the manor has a right to the women; the king has his mistresses."


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 16, 2011, 05:20:03 PM
Actually the 'serial seducer' thing isn't necessarily sexist, it's just not in line with the ideal  heterosexual (though nowadays homosexual goes as well) , monogamous relationship as preached by bourgeois morality. It's certainly not something I frown upon.

On the whole France doesn't strike me as very 'sexist'. It's certainly less so than Italy or Spain. On the whole France is pretty much your archetypical Western European (Contintal) Liberal Democracy. (From now on I'll refer to these nations as WELDs)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 16, 2011, 05:27:26 PM
Actually the 'serial seducer' thing isn't necessarily sexist, it's just not in line with the ideal  heterosexual (though nowadays homosexual goes as well) , monogamous relationship as preached by bourgeois morality. It's certainly not something I frown upon.

On the whole France doesn't strike me as very 'sexist'. It's certainly less so than Italy or Spain. On the whole France is pretty much your archetypical Western European (Contintal) Liberal Democracy. (From now on I'll refer to these nations as WELDs)

I was more focused on women being afraid of being alone with him or the whole lord of the manor thing.

I'm not big on feminism or structuralist analyses but the patterns of "serial seducing" in this context is clearly an expression of sexism.

But I'll agree that Italy is certainly more sexist. But it is, on the other hand, a pretty extreme case.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Sam Spade on May 16, 2011, 07:12:48 PM
So they put him in Rikers!  I'm amazed.

Now he'll get some action there too, but of a different sort.  lolololol

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/IMF-Chief-Dominique-Strauss-Kahn-Sexual-Assault-France-NYC-121892809.html


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 16, 2011, 07:24:09 PM
I'd argue that calling "serial seducers" sexist is the actual sexism in this case. You act like the women they seduce are brainless/defenseless and can't think for themselves... "won't someone step in and protect these dumb little girls from the mean old men tricking them into sex!" As long as everyone involved is consenting to whatever is happening, you really can't lump "seducers" or "charmers" in with "gropers" and "rapists."

Obviously French society doesn't see a huge problem with not sticking to the traditional puritanical conception of monogamy. That doesn't mean they're all rapists and misogynists.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 16, 2011, 10:08:58 PM
If he is guilty, then he has no future anyway, but fleeing back to France could keep him out of jail.

How? Can't he be extradited to the States?

I doubt he'd be any more extraditable than Polanski has been these past few decades, and he wasn't merely accused of a sex crime, he was convicted of it.  However if France wants to trade DSK for Polanski, I'd be willing to accept that deal.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 16, 2011, 11:18:07 PM
If I came up with half the cockamamie theories about American politicians who commit crimes that are being made by the French and certain posters on this forum to explain how he's not guilty, I'd be laughed off the forum immediately.

Besides, why do certain leftist posters want to defend some rich banker who heads an organization that regularly screws poor countries and poor people for their own benefit?  Hilarious, if you ask me.

As I said before - innocent until proven guilty.  But this ain't some minority in the Bronx being prosecuted - the cops will be quite careful here.

Spade appears to make the most sense out of anyone here.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 17, 2011, 03:31:01 AM
As I'm a "French poster", I must say one thing:

please understand that it's first hard to believe (despite DSK's own past, but a past "only" of divorces, mistresses and adulteries, not of violence)
because precisely it's DSK.
You, non-French, don't know him for years and years (as for me, I've been aware of him and his political career since... 1985 !).

When you are "used", "accustomed" to a person, especially when it's a media star and so when you think (wrongly) that you know him at least a bit,
it's difficult to believe such a thing.

And, what is more, for political fans, the political consequences are so huge that 24 hours aren't really an eternity to begin to acknowledge that it may be true.

I'm a French social conservative, which is almost an extinct species in France ;), and a UMP member, so you can't believe I'm biased towards DSK... :P

FTR, even Christine Boutin, head of the small Christian-Democrat Party, first believed in a conspiracy...

My own first reaction was to think about a fake accusation by a woman who wanted money, just that, because, very often, reasons of events are prosaic.

With all the past elements now revealed in French medias, especially in left medias, it's very likely that he is guilty.

When you see that a French socialist MP, Filipetti, said in 2007 that she was cautious not to be alone with DSK in the same room, well... it's done... and it's of course utterly disgusting, as rape is among the nastiest of tortures.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 17, 2011, 03:35:15 AM
Back to business, the only interesting one here ;D

Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 15-16 May 2011, sample 802
on socialist primaries

Let's be careful, the sample is tiny, but still, the gap is huge:

among the socialists / among the whole left
Hollande 49 / 37
Aubry 23 / 22
Royal 10 / 14
Montebourg 1 / 4
Valls 3 / 2
nobe of them 14 / 21

Considering the socialists are the most likely to vote, this is good for Hollande.
Let's hope Royal will mess some things around, forcing Aubry to deal with lil' quarrels inside the party and Hollande will be safe.

(great news ! ;D)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 17, 2011, 05:10:40 AM
Nobody so far has pointed out the horrendous brutality of the way he was treated by the American authorities. A person who is presumed innocent shouldn't be exposed to the media the way he has been. He has the right, as any other person, to privacy.

Of course, for all the media throughout the world, he is already guilty. The American public is ready to lynch him and its elected (what a failure !) judicial officers are following it. It is clear that everybody is jumping on this occasion to humiliate a man because he is rich, "powerful", and maybe also because he is French.

French culture might have its defects, but there is also somehting wrong in the American one.

For French-speakers, listen to Bernard-Henri Lévy and Robert Badinter on France inter. http://sites.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/ev/fiche.php?ev_id=1762


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 17, 2011, 07:35:03 AM
I'd argue that calling "serial seducers" sexist is the actual sexism in this case. You act like the women they seduce are brainless/defenseless and can't think for themselves... "won't someone step in and protect these dumb little girls from the mean old men tricking them into sex!" As long as everyone involved is consenting to whatever is happening, you really can't lump "seducers" or "charmers" in with "gropers" and "rapists."

Obviously French society doesn't see a huge problem with not sticking to the traditional puritanical conception of monogamy. That doesn't mean they're all rapists and misogynists.

Lol. Calling the nineteenth century slave trade racist is the real racism. You act like the black people enslaved were defenseless and needed protection against the powerful white people. There were white slaves too, you know.

PS: the article lumped the terms together, not me. Presumably because the distinction is very fine in a sexist society.

It would rather seem that French society doesn't see a huge problem with sticking to the traditional concept of women not having much of a right to their own body. You could always look up when women got the right to vote there. Anyway, I still haven't called all French misogynist rapists. But just like the article in the Guardian (and a big article in Sweden's leading morning paper today) argue there seem to be a culture of it being all right for powerful men to use and abuse women. That allows misogynist rapists to get away with it more easily.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 17, 2011, 07:37:04 AM
Nobody so far has pointed out the horrendous brutality of the way he was treated by the American authorities. A person who is presumed innocent shouldn't be exposed to the media the way he has been. He has the right, as any other person, to privacy.

Of course, for all the media throughout the world, he is already guilty. The American public is ready to lynch him and its elected (what a failure !) judicial officers are following it. It is clear that everybody is jumping on this occasion to humiliate a man because he is rich, "powerful", and maybe also because he is French.

French culture might have its defects, but there is also somehting wrong in the American one.

For French-speakers, listen to Bernard-Henri Lévy and Robert Badinter on France inter. http://sites.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/ev/fiche.php?ev_id=1762

Are you calling all Americans defective now? What bigotry!

And I can't say I'm seeing much "horrendous brutality". Of course, if one is used to living the life of the noblesse oblige with the taxpayers picking up the tab a prison cell is going to seem like an insult, but equality before the law applies even to famous people.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 17, 2011, 08:53:10 AM
Nobody so far has pointed out the horrendous brutality of the way he was treated by the American authorities.

He's been treated no differently to any other suspect in a sex offence case... actually, that's not true. Some poor black teenager from the projects would certainly be treated in a far more 'brutal' manner in a case with charges like this one. Someone on the news this morning mentioned that while he's in Rikers Island, he's being kept on his own. Most inmates there aren't so lucky.

Basically this side of things is a typical cultural disconnect. In America it is normal to parade suspects in front of cameras in their cuffs; that this has happened to DSK is not evidence of unusually brutal treatment or of an attempt to humiliate France. Americans are a theatrical people, that's all.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 17, 2011, 09:14:30 AM
Nobody so far has pointed out the horrendous brutality of the way he was treated by the American authorities.

He's been treated no differently to any other suspect in a sex offence case... actually, that's not true. Some poor black teenager from the projects would certainly be treated in a far more 'brutal' manner in a case with charges like this one. Someone on the news this morning mentioned that while he's in Rikers Island, he's being kept on his own. Most inmates there aren't so lucky.

Basically this side of things is a typical cultural disconnect. In America it is normal to parade suspects in front of cameras in their cuffs; that this has happened to DSK is not evidence of unusually brutal treatment or of an attempt to humiliate France. Americans are a theatrical people, that's all.

Maybe, but it's still something extremely humiliating to do to someone who is still presumed innocent. In France, it is actually illegal, fortunately. And I have still to understand why in the world the caution was denied. All this seems to be made in order to show how ruthless the justice is toward powerful people. Except that this isn't a "fair treatment", because being seen handcuffed is not the sma thing when you are the IMF director than when you're just some random guy. Discretion is perfectly normal in thoses case, it's by no way "favoritism".


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 17, 2011, 09:29:42 AM
Maybe, but it's still something extremely humiliating to do to someone who is still presumed innocent. In France, it is actually illegal, fortunately.

That is exactly what I meant by a 'cultural disconnect'. The American legal system and its traditions happens to be very, very different from the French legal system; these differences are just that (differences and traditions) rather than a calculated snub of any kind.

Quote
And I have still to understand why in the world the caution was denied.

Bail? Because obvious flight risk is obvious.

Quote
All this seems to be made in order to show how ruthless the justice is toward powerful people.

Isn't that the point of equality before the law?

Quote
Except that this isn't a "fair treatment", because being seen handcuffed is not the sma thing when you are the IMF director than when you're just some random guy. Discretion is perfectly normal in thoses case, it's by no way "favoritism".

Don't understand this position; could you elaborate?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 17, 2011, 09:33:19 AM
Maybe, but it's still something extremely humiliating to do to someone who is still presumed innocent. In France, it is actually illegal, fortunately.

That is exactly what I meant by a 'cultural disconnect'. The American legal system and its traditions happens to be very, very different from the French legal system; these differences are just that (differences and traditions) rather than a calculated snub of any kind.

Quote
And I have still to understand why in the world the caution was denied.

Bail? Because obvious flight risk is obvious.

Quote
All this seems to be made in order to show how ruthless the justice is toward powerful people.

Isn't that the point of equality before the law?

Quote
Except that this isn't a "fair treatment", because being seen handcuffed is not the sma thing when you are the IMF director than when you're just some random guy. Discretion is perfectly normal in thoses case, it's by no way "favoritism".

Don't understand this position; could you elaborate?

I think he's saying that famous people have more right to integrity than non-famous people because they stand to lose so much more - membership at the country club, annual invitation to grand balls and so on.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 17, 2011, 10:41:19 AM
I think he's saying that famous people have more right to integrity than non-famous people because they stand to lose so much more - membership at the country club, annual invitation to grand balls and so on.

The sad thing is that you seem to be serious... Since you are so sure about the moral superiority of your position, why do you even bother responding to the obnoxious people who disagree with you ?


Quote
That is exactly what I meant by a 'cultural disconnect'. The American legal system and its traditions happens to be very, very different from the French legal system; these differences are just that (differences and traditions) rather than a calculated snub of any kind.

Might be that, yes. It doesn't make it any more legitimate to me.


Quote
Bail? Because obvious flight risk is obvious.

That's a good one. He was as likely to flee as I am to become the Pope. And anyways the authorities had all the means to keep him under control. This has been done for only two possible reasons : for the sake of humiliating an evil powerful bastard or for that of showing to the public how the justice doesn't make any favor to an evil powerful bastard. In any case, it goes against justice and decency.


Quote
Isn't that the point of equality before the law?

Except that this isn't equality before the law. Because he is famous, the impact of his being publicly shown handcuffed has nothing to do with what it would be for a random guy. The mediatic impact changes everything. A random guy accused of rape attempt doesn't get dozens of cameras filming him, doesn't get his face portrayed in every newspaper, doesn't get publicly lynched like DSK was. In order to ensure equality, yes, some more discretion is needed. That's something pretty evident to see.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 17, 2011, 11:01:48 AM
That's a good one. He was as likely to flee as I am to become the Pope.

Congratulations your holiness.

Again, I don't understand your position at all... he's not an American citizen, he was apprehended on a plane as it was about to take off, he is not a native English speaker and risks spending a considerable amount of time in an American prison, he had previously lived the high life for decades and risks spending a considerable amount of time in prison... and so on and so forth. If such a person is not a flight risk, then who is?

I think I should make it clear that I had nothing against DSK up until this point; he was actually my preferred candidate to take on Sarkozy on the totally cynical basis that he seemed to be (by far!) the strongest possibility to get him out.

Quote
And anyways the authorities had all the means to keep him under control. This has been done for only two possible reasons : for the sake of humiliating an evil powerful bastard or for that of showing to the public how the justice doesn't make any favor to an evil powerful bastard. In any case, it goes against justice and decency.

Or because they were worried that he'd pull a Polanski.

Quote
Except that this isn't equality before the law

How is being treated - more or less - in the way that any other suspect in this sort of case would be treated anything other than an example of equality before the law?

Quote
Because he is famous, the impact of his being publicly shown handcuffed has nothing to do with what it would be for a random guy. The mediatic impact changes everything. A random guy accused of rape attempt doesn't get dozens of cameras filming him, doesn't get his face portrayed in every newspaper, doesn't get publicly lynched like DSK was. In order to ensure equality, yes, some more discretion is needed. That's something pretty evident to see.

No one in America knows who DSK is. But I suppose he is clearly the real victim here, not the person he (may have) attacked or the other people that he (may have) attacked over the years.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 17, 2011, 11:20:46 AM
I think he's saying that famous people have more right to integrity than non-famous people because they stand to lose so much more - membership at the country club, annual invitation to grand balls and so on.

The sad thing is that you seem to be serious... Since you are so sure about the moral superiority of your position, why do you even bother responding to the obnoxious people who disagree with you ?


Quote
That is exactly what I meant by a 'cultural disconnect'. The American legal system and its traditions happens to be very, very different from the French legal system; these differences are just that (differences and traditions) rather than a calculated snub of any kind.

Might be that, yes. It doesn't make it any more legitimate to me.


Quote
Bail? Because obvious flight risk is obvious.

That's a good one. He was as likely to flee as I am to become the Pope. And anyways the authorities had all the means to keep him under control. This has been done for only two possible reasons : for the sake of humiliating an evil powerful bastard or for that of showing to the public how the justice doesn't make any favor to an evil powerful bastard. In any case, it goes against justice and decency.


Quote
Isn't that the point of equality before the law?

Except that this isn't equality before the law. Because he is famous, the impact of his being publicly shown handcuffed has nothing to do with what it would be for a random guy. The mediatic impact changes everything. A random guy accused of rape attempt doesn't get dozens of cameras filming him, doesn't get his face portrayed in every newspaper, doesn't get publicly lynched like DSK was. In order to ensure equality, yes, some more discretion is needed. That's something pretty evident to see.

That's an easy question - since I am so sure about the moral superiority of my position I try to convince others of it. On a lot of issues I don't think my position is necessarily any better than anyone else's and then I usually keep my opinion to myself. Why would I bother anyone with an argument if I didn't think it was superior (or at least interesting).

And I'd say the sad thing is that you seem to be serious - poor, poor DSK who will have to briefly leave his $3000 suites and international top meetings.

It's really amazing how the left can throw all their principles and ideals over board when it comes to worshiping aristocratic leaders.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 17, 2011, 11:28:22 AM
Quote
Again, I don't understand your position at all... he's not an American citizen, he was apprehended on a plane as it was about to take off, he is not a native English speaker and risks spending a considerable amount of time in an American prison, he had previously lived the high life for decades and risks spending a considerable amount of time in prison... and so on and so forth. If such a person is not a flight risk, then who is?

Fleeing for him would be like admitting his guiltiness, and thus authomatically becoming one of the most hated person in the world. Wherever he goes, he would almost certainly be extraded, if only due to popular pressure. And even if he weren't, he couldn't in any way "live the high life" anymore, his goods would probably be frozen and all this. If he considers that he has decent chances be acquitted (and he has, independently from his innocence : he can still be acquitted on benefit of the doubt).
And anyways, as I've said, the police still could easily keep him under control outside of jail. Assigning him a residence should have been enough.

And since you're mentioning Polanski, let's say once for all than the two affairs have absolutely nothing in common. One was an artist (not the same kind of "popularity"), the procedure was not at the same point, and his culpability was undoubted. Comparing the two affairs is pretty demagogic.


Quote
No one in America knows who DSK is.

Maybe they didn't knew it 3 days ago, now they do. And anyways the same happens in France (even though media seem a bit more measured, for what I've heard) and in the rest of the world.


Quote
But I suppose he is clearly the real victim here, not the person he (may have) attacked or the other people that he (may have) attacked over the years.

If he is innocent, yes, he is the victim of a horrendous slander and of an excessively brutal treatment.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Verily on May 17, 2011, 11:29:47 AM
Quote
Again, I don't understand your position at all... he's not an American citizen, he was apprehended on a plane as it was about to take off, he is not a native English speaker and risks spending a considerable amount of time in an American prison, he had previously lived the high life for decades and risks spending a considerable amount of time in prison... and so on and so forth. If such a person is not a flight risk, then who is?

Fleeing for him would be like admitting his guiltiness, and thus authomatically becoming one of the most hated person in the world. Wherever he goes, he would almost certainly be extraded, if only due to popular pressure. And even if he weren't, he couldn't in any way "live the high life" anymore, his goods would probably be frozen and all this. If he considers that he has decent chances be acquitted (and he has, independently from his innocence : he can still be acquitted on benefit of the doubt).
And anyways, as I've said, the police still could easily keep him under control outside of jail. Assigning him a residence should have been enough.

He was fleeing the country when he was arrested. I don't see how you think this means he wouldn't try to flee again.

And the world has seen the disgusting reactions of the French to this affair. He might not be a Presidential candidate, but he'd be welcomed back with open arms by a large segment of the French elite were he to flee now.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 17, 2011, 11:37:43 AM
That's an easy question - since I am so sure about the moral superiority of my position I try to convince others of it. On a lot of issues I don't think my position is necessarily any better than anyone else's and then I usually keep my opinion to myself. Why would I bother anyone with an argument if I didn't think it was superior (or at least interesting).

There is a difference between genuinely believing you are right and treating anybody who disagrees with you as if he were Opebo (yes, because I've the impression that you can't abandon your obsession for one second).
 

Quote
And I'd say the sad thing is that you seem to be serious - poor, poor DSK who will have to briefly leave his $3000 suites and international top meetings.

Poor DSK will be loathed by the entire world for something that might very well be false. Even if proven 100% innocent, his image will still be damaged for no reason. Poor DSK will have to abandon the IMF where he was doing an amazing job, and poor DSK just went from the status of favorite as next French President to the status of official asshole.
I know you are not one of those evil depraved rich bastards and that you are infinitely superior to him, but just try for one second to imagine how you would feel if you were him and were innocent.
 

Quote
It's really amazing how the left can throw all their principles and ideals over board when it comes to worshiping aristocratic leaders.

Please tell me what "principles and ideals" I've betrayed. And no, hating rich people has never been a left-wing principle.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 17, 2011, 11:43:33 AM
He was fleeing the country when he was arrested. I don't see how you think this means he wouldn't try to flee again.

Bullsh*t. He took the plane he had already planned to take. And before doing so, he took the time to have a dinner with his daughter and to call the hotel telling them he had forgotten a mobile phone. Wow, the American medias' presentation seems even more biased than I thought.


Quote
And the world has seen the disgusting reactions of the French to this affair. He might not be a Presidential candidate, but he'd be welcomed back with open arms by a large segment of the French elite were he to flee now.

The "disgusting reactions of the French elite" are the normal reactions of people who respect presumption of innocence. Contrary to some other people.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on May 17, 2011, 12:05:43 PM
DSK is clearly not a victim of any sort, and he's getting quite fair treatment as an accused person of a very serious crime.

Frankly, trying to turn this into something else seems quite dishonest and desperate to me.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 17, 2011, 01:46:20 PM
That's an easy question - since I am so sure about the moral superiority of my position I try to convince others of it. On a lot of issues I don't think my position is necessarily any better than anyone else's and then I usually keep my opinion to myself. Why would I bother anyone with an argument if I didn't think it was superior (or at least interesting).

There is a difference between genuinely believing you are right and treating anybody who disagrees with you as if he were Opebo (yes, because I've the impression that you can't abandon your obsession for one second).
 

Quote
And I'd say the sad thing is that you seem to be serious - poor, poor DSK who will have to briefly leave his $3000 suites and international top meetings.

Poor DSK will be loathed by the entire world for something that might very well be false. Even if proven 100% innocent, his image will still be damaged for no reason. Poor DSK will have to abandon the IMF where he was doing an amazing job, and poor DSK just went from the status of favorite as next French President to the status of official asshole.
I know you are not one of those evil depraved rich bastards and that you are infinitely superior to him, but just try for one second to imagine how you would feel if you were him and were innocent.
 

Quote
It's really amazing how the left can throw all their principles and ideals over board when it comes to worshiping aristocratic leaders.

Please tell me what "principles and ideals" I've betrayed. And no, hating rich people has never been a left-wing principle.

You're turning into a complete mess now. Let's go over your "points" one by one.

1. How am I treating you badly? I was making a general statement, unrelated to any poster on here, and you immediately jumped on me with ad hominem attacks. At this point they're becoming rather bizarre. How is Opebo related to this?

2. Ok, first off, I think we can say with some certainty that he's a sexist bastard, regardless of how this case turns out. Have you read about the several cases that have already emerged? He apparently has quite the reputation for sexual harassment. Secondly, drugging and then anally raping a 14-year old girl didn't make Roman Polanski unpopular in France. Your government took him in and defended him vigorously. In fact, you're defending DSK right now.

3. I mean principles such as thinking that rich people should have to follow the same laws as everyone else. Principles such as respecting the individual rights of the downtrodden in society, like cleaning women. See, thinking rich people shouldn't get special VIP suites in prison isn't "hating rich people". But you don't seem to be very good at grasping nuances. Or controlling your temper, for that matter.

I will also note that I never claimed to know that he was guilty, while you keep arguing his innocence. Furthermore, I seem to be in agreement with newspapers and posters from all over the world, whereas the only people thinking DSK is being horribly treated seem to be...you and other Frenchmen. Does this indicate that the entire world is biased or that France is biased, in your opinion?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 17, 2011, 02:45:21 PM
1. How am I treating you badly? I was making a general statement, unrelated to any poster on here, and you immediately jumped on me with ad hominem attacks. At this point they're becoming rather bizarre. How is Opebo related to this?

Maybe I should have said you're arguing against me as if it were against Opebo. Anyways, that's very easy to understand. If you stopped showing so much hate and contempt and didn't consider your contradictor as if he were a hypocritical sh*t, this discussion would be a lot more interesting. You keep putting words in my mouth that aren't mine, and arguing through strawmen instead of answering to my point, because for you every poster who disagrees with you on topics like this are like Opebo.


Quote
2. Ok, first off, I think we can say with some certainty that he's a sexist bastard, regardless of how this case turns out. Have you read about the several cases that have already emerged? He apparently has quite the reputation for sexual harassment.

No, I'm not a specialist of reputations. It might be true, and if he is really a "sexist bastard" as you say that certainly lowers my opinion of him a lot. But anyways, opinions shouldn't be based on rumours. And even if he is a "sexist bastard" that doesn't make him a rapist.


Quote
Secondly, drugging and then anally raping a 14-year old girl didn't make Roman Polanski unpopular in France. Your government took him in and defended him vigorously. In fact, you're defending DSK right now.

Again, the two affairs have really nothing in common. To the points I've made earlier, let me add being an artist isn't the same thing as being a politician, and if Polanski ever ran for an office he wouldn't get half a vote.


And interestingly, I notice you didn't adress my point at all. If you missed it : if he is innocent, how would you feel in his place ? Is it as hard to have a bit of compassion for him ?


Quote
3. I mean principles such as thinking that rich people should have to follow the same laws as everyone else. Principles such as respecting the individual rights of the downtrodden in society, like cleaning women. See, thinking rich people shouldn't get special VIP suites in prison isn't "hating rich people". But you don't seem to be very good at grasping nuances. Or controlling your temper, for that matter.

I've made a point, which again you missed totally. A famous person and an unknown one aren't equal before the media. Being shown handcuffed is far more grave if these image are spread thoughout the world. It's a huge prejudice to dignity and to presumption of innocence. So yes, in this case a treatment of favor is necessary just in order to avoid such a public humiliation. Is it so hard to understand ?

But I see you criticize me for not being able to grasp nuances, just after grossly and stupidly caricaturing my argument as "rich people should get special VIP suites in prison". ::)


Quote
I will also note that I never claimed to know that he was guilty, while you keep arguing his innocence.

I stated my opinion on the affair, ie that I have difficulties to think he could really have attempted to rape a chambermaid. I might very well be wrong. If the justice concludes otherwise, then I'll accept that. I've never said I knew he was innocent so I'd apreciate if you stopped making me say what I did.
I, however, consider the possibility of his innocence. And I realize how horrible is what he is living, if he actually is innocent.


Quote
Furthermore, I seem to be in agreement with newspapers and posters from all over the world, whereas the only people thinking DSK is being horribly treated seem to be...you and other Frenchmen. Does this indicate that the entire world is biased or that France is biased, in your opinion?

Discussing about it is the only way to know who is right and who is wrong. Maybe French media are biased, yeah. Or maybe they are right. But since when being more numerous means being more right ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: ZuWo on May 17, 2011, 03:08:03 PM
Considering the details of the DSK case and the numerous allegations concerning DSK's behaviour towards women in the past, I find it very hard to believe that this guy is innocent. But then again, this is just my opinion which, although it seems to be supported by the facts, I cannot prove. However, I regard the existing conspiracy theories about DSK's arrest as pathetic. How smart is it to believe in mere speculation about a possible complot that no one can prove when, on the other hand, there is evidence that DSK is simply a criminal, disgusting old man?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 17, 2011, 03:16:04 PM
Look, if you want to be treated with respect you don't start a discussion with me the way you did. Why should I show you any respect when you attack me personally without offering anything resembling an argument? I only give people respect if I think they deserve it and you're not doing very well so far.

So, you think that journalist who said 4 years ago, on tv, that he, during an interview, ripped her clothes off and struggled with her on the floor until she kicked him away was also lying? Of course, the ever so objective French media edited out his name. And when it is mentioned on the show no one seems to consider it a big deal. It seems to be more of a funny anecdote. But that could be my prejudices again, I suppose. And the MP who says she was afraid of being in the same room as him, was she also lying?

You're claiming that he's a poor innocent man who will have a destroyed reputation. But it is at this stage extremely unlikely that he isn't a pretty sexist bastard, even if he didn't rape this girl (or if it cannot be proven because his money can hire good enough lawyers). So I can't muster up enormous wells of sympathy for a man who has obviously a pretty warped view of women.

It is also notable that your surprise at this incident seems to be more because French media doesn't report when powerful people misbehave than because it is so out of character. This has been a recurring theme with many French politicians in the past as well. Which makes it funny that you think everyone but French media is being biased - your track record on cases like this isn't that good, I'm afraid.

Furthermore, it's great that you know Polanski wouldn't have any support. It's still a fact that your government supported him and did so enthusiastically. I'm sure DSK could not get elected if he turned out to be guilty but I doubt his life would be ruined. I guess he would have to content himself with driving around in his Porsche, harassing women and drinking fine wine. I'm afraid I will reserve most of my sympathy for people more deserving of it (say starving kids in Darfur).

Your point on famous people having a hard time is quite ridiculous. If I were arrested and publicly named for rape don't you think everyone I knew would know? Don't you think my social life would be destroyed? My professional career? Your contention here is absolutely bizarre. Perhaps you're unaware that this happens to everyone in the US, not just famous people.

And, of course, I never said you said rich people should be getting VIP treatment in prison. I said that I didn't think so and that it hardly means hating rich people.

Finally, you said:
Updated the numbers : all works, except last week's Aubry, which now lacks 0.1 points. ;)


That's looking bleaker and bleaker. I still think he is innocent, and the justice will recognize it. But the voters never will... But honestly, part of myself wishes he is guilty, because if he isn't what's happening to him (and to France) is really horrible.

LOL@ Bernard Debré, what a bastard.

My emphasis. So I think my characterization of you "arguing his innocence" was rather correct. It's a bit bizarre that you attack me for putting word in your mouth when those words are not words I ever said...

You claimed that I was a bigot brainwashed by my biased newspaper. I'm just asking what is more likely, given the fact that so many people, journalists and posters seem to be in agreement with me? I'm also hinting, gently, that now that my original statement has been backed up by some of the world's leading newspapers your contention that I was showing my bigoted ignorance and reliance on anecdotal evidence might warrant an apology. You were obviously having an emotional reaction and had no idea what you were talking about, while I was making a rather uncontroversial point.

See, next time someone joins most people in the world on an issue and disagrees with you, it might be a good idea not to reply by telling them they're an idiot. Just as a little tip.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: opebo on May 17, 2011, 03:31:13 PM
Nobody so far has pointed out the horrendous brutality of the way he was treated by the American authorities.

...that this has happened to DSK is not evidence of unusually brutal treatment or of an attempt to humiliate France. Americans are a theatrical brutal people, that's all.

The point is that America is a savage, inhumane, brutal land where individual rights mean little, compared to France.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 17, 2011, 03:36:04 PM
I'd argue that calling "serial seducers" sexist is the actual sexism in this case. You act like the women they seduce are brainless/defenseless and can't think for themselves... "won't someone step in and protect these dumb little girls from the mean old men tricking them into sex!" As long as everyone involved is consenting to whatever is happening, you really can't lump "seducers" or "charmers" in with "gropers" and "rapists."

Obviously French society doesn't see a huge problem with not sticking to the traditional puritanical conception of monogamy. That doesn't mean they're all rapists and misogynists.

Precisely.  You've just elucidated perfectly why Gustaf is the sexist on this forum, not I.

So, do you think wanting to give poor people protection through a generous dole is condescending and classist?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: opebo on May 17, 2011, 03:57:30 PM
So, do you think wanting to give poor people protection through a generous dole is condescending and classist?

It may be, but that doesn't bother me in the least, Gustaf.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 17, 2011, 04:02:24 PM
So, do you think wanting to give poor people protection through a generous dole is condescending and classist?

It may be, but that doesn't bother me in the least, Gustaf.

Ah, so you're playing your hypocrite game as usual. If you don't care about respecting either women or poor people, why not be open and honest about it? Why the little charade about trying to call me sexist?

PS: I of course have no problem with women sleeping around with different men or anything like that. That was just Lief not bothering to understand me.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 17, 2011, 04:02:56 PM
And anyways, as I've said, the police still could easily keep him under control outside of jail. Assigning him a residence should have been enough.

I don't understand why they would do this. Certainly they wouldn't give any other rape suspect a house to live in.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 17, 2011, 04:06:28 PM
And anyways, as I've said, the police still could easily keep him under control outside of jail. Assigning him a residence should have been enough.

I don't understand why they would do this. Certainly they wouldn't give any other rape suspect a house to live in.

But Xahar, we're talking about a famous politician who drives a Porsche here. Being in jail isn't the same for him as it would be for us normal people. It's much more humiliating and degrading. In fact, even punishing such as great man would be a travesty of justice.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 17, 2011, 04:22:31 PM
Quote
Again, I don't understand your position at all... he's not an American citizen, he was apprehended on a plane as it was about to take off, he is not a native English speaker and risks spending a considerable amount of time in an American prison, he had previously lived the high life for decades and risks spending a considerable amount of time in prison... and so on and so forth. If such a person is not a flight risk, then who is?

Fleeing for him would be like admitting his guiltiness, and thus authomatically becoming one of the most hated person in the world. Wherever he goes, he would almost certainly be extraded, if only due to popular pressure. And even if he weren't, he couldn't in any way "live the high life" anymore, his goods would probably be frozen and all this. If he considers that he has decent chances be acquitted (and he has, independently from his innocence : he can still be acquitted on benefit of the doubt).
And anyways, as I've said, the police still could easily keep him under control outside of jail. Assigning him a residence should have been enough.

And since you're mentioning Polanski, let's say once for all than the two affairs have absolutely nothing in common. One was an artist (not the same kind of "popularity"), the procedure was not at the same point, and his culpability was undoubted. Comparing the two affairs is pretty demagogic.


Quote
No one in America knows who DSK is.

Maybe they didn't knew it 3 days ago, now they do. And anyways the same happens in France (even though media seem a bit more measured, for what I've heard) and in the rest of the world.


Quote
But I suppose he is clearly the real victim here, not the person he (may have) attacked or the other people that he (may have) attacked over the years.

If he is innocent, yes, he is the victim of a horrendous slander and of an excessively brutal treatment.

All right, look. Whenever DSK is guilty or not (and it's up to the courts, not us, to determine this), giving him preferential treatment because he's a prominent financier and a politician would be grossly unfair toward countless suspects/accused people, who doesn't enjoy his high position.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Joe Republic on May 17, 2011, 04:34:41 PM
Nicolas Sarkozy of all people had to warn DSK before becoming IMF chief that people outside France don't tolerate perverts, indicating that it would bring shame on the nation.

Even if there was no actual rape, the maid wouldn't bring these kind of charges unless he was attempting to invoke his, um... 'natural rights as a Frenchman' upon her in some way.  Not unless there was some kind of sinister conspiracy against him from the start.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 17, 2011, 04:53:36 PM
Nicolas Sarkozy of all people had to warn DSK before becoming IMF chief that people outside France don't tolerate perverts, indicating that it would bring shame on the nation.

Even if there was no actual rape, the maid wouldn't bring these kind of charges unless he was attempting to invoke his, um... 'natural rights as a Frenchman' upon her in some way.  Not unless there was some kind of sinister conspiracy against him from the start.

It seems to me that his reaction throughout the whole thing would have been different if it was all a big lie and conspiracy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 17, 2011, 05:06:19 PM
What annoys me is a hackery, like "omg, this is conspiracy!" or "he's surely guilty, we know DSK is that kind of person".


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 17, 2011, 06:10:30 PM
CSA poll for 20 Minutes:

Hollande 23
Sarkozy 22
Le Pen 20

Aubry 23
Sarkozy 23
Le Pen 19

Royal 18
Sarkozy 23
Le Pen 20

No big change here.
In the first round, Borloo gains 4 points (from 4 to 8), Bayrou between 2 and 4 points.

I'll re-publish it when we have complete results.

(Guys, I'm desperately trying to put the discussion back to the main subject of this thread... ;))


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 17, 2011, 06:21:44 PM
CSA poll for 20 Minutes:

Hollande 23
Sarkozy 22
Le Pen 20

Aubry 23
Sarkozy 23
Le Pen 19

Royal 18
Sarkozy 23
Le Pen 20

No big change here.
In the first round, Borloo gains 4 points (from 4 to 8), Bayrou between 2 and 4 points.

I'll re-publish it when we have complete results.

(Guys, I'm desperately trying to put the discussion back to the main subject of this thread... ;))

...FRANCOIS 2012! Francois pour les Francais!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 17, 2011, 06:25:16 PM
His word for the moment is "a normal president"... ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Psychic Octopus on May 17, 2011, 07:43:10 PM
DSK is on suicide watch. (http://www.wjla.com/articles/2011/05/imf-s-strauss-kahn-under-suicide-watch-60908.html)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on May 17, 2011, 07:52:11 PM
I actually read about this IMF chief thing in the paper today and was thinking "hey! I should bring this up on the forum!" Looks like I got beaten to it.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: King on May 17, 2011, 10:39:33 PM
So, Frenchies, would Strauss-Kahn still win 75% of the vote in a runoff against Le Pen or does rape outweigh fascism in France?

Also, we might end up needing a new France 2012 thread by the time all the dust settles here.  It's already looking like a minor flame war based on the past few pages I've read.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on May 18, 2011, 02:32:32 AM
Some French media outlets have apparently broadcast the accuser's name:

link (http://slatest.slate.com/posts/2011/05/17/dsk_accuser_french_language_media_identifies_alleged_victim_by_n.html)

Quote
Slate.fr, citing relatives of the accuser, reports that the woman is a legal immigrant who originally hails from the African nation of Guinea. She is a 32-year-old Muslim who has been living in the U.S. since 1998, when she followed her then husband to the United States. The pair later divorced, according to the report, and the woman is now a single parent of a 15-year-old daughter.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on May 18, 2011, 02:47:54 AM
Nicolas Sarkozy of all people had to warn DSK before becoming IMF chief that people outside France don't tolerate perverts, indicating that it would bring shame on the nation.

Even if there was no actual rape, the maid wouldn't bring these kind of charges unless he was attempting to invoke his, um... 'natural rights as a Frenchman' upon her in some way.  Not unless there was some kind of sinister conspiracy against him from the start.

     The notion of DSK having to be warned is quite interesting ultimately. Regardless of the truth of the matter, this whole affair & the revelations that have surfaced as a result of it tap into a very negative stereotype of France & its people.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 18, 2011, 03:17:57 AM
Gustaf, I'm not arguing with you as long as you keep missing my points and putting words in my mouth (because 90% of your post is based only on that). I might be wrong in my argument, but at least I genuinely try to adress the points you make.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 18, 2011, 03:43:06 AM
Gustaf, I'm not arguing with you as long as you keep missing my points and putting words in my mouth (because 90% of your post is based only on that). I might be wrong in my argument, but at least I genuinely try to adress the points you make.

Well, I'm thinking he may has a point on French people.

Not a socialist leader expressed any compassion to the alleged victim.
Comments on French news sites are insulting the victim, too.

There seems to have a generalised banalisation of rape in French news, and, that, that is worriying.
Much more than the actual trial.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 18, 2011, 03:52:19 AM
Gustaf, I'm not arguing with you as long as you keep missing my points and putting words in my mouth (because 90% of your post is based only on that). I might be wrong in my argument, but at least I genuinely try to adress the points you make.

I guess that is the best I will get from you and I suppose the thread shouldn't be further derailed. It would be wise to learn not to attack people instead of arguing with them just because they disagree with you.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 18, 2011, 04:31:10 AM
OK, let's talk about politics ;).

CSA poll, for 20 Minutes and BFM TV, 16 May 2011, sample 838 RVs among a total sample of 1007

Presidential election, first round:

Hollande 23 / Aubry 23 / Royal 18
Sarkozy 22 / 23 / 23
Le Pen 20 / 19 / 20
Borloo 8 / 8 / 10
Bayrou 7 / 7 / 9
Villepin 4 / 4 / 4
Hulot 6 / 6 / 6
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 5
NPA candidate 2 / 2 / 2
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 2 / 2 / 2

Amazing result for Dupont-Aignan :D.
Chevènement hasn't been included.

There is one problem with this poll: it's too perfect to be good.
In all the other polls, numbers vary stupidly depending on the hypothesis, as if people change their mind on Sarkozy, Dupont-Aignan or Arthaud just because it's Aubry instead of Hollande.
It may seem stupid in some cases, but I'm convinced it's true.

Here, Hulot, the 3 far-left candidates, Villepin and Dupont-Aignan are remarkably stable. That's a bit suspicious.

The big points are that, without DSK, everything is razor-thin between Sarkozy, the PS and Panzergirl,
and that the "centre" is a wide and moving area, up fro grabs: Hulot is a bit down (is his momentum already over ?), Borloo is in good shape though not stratospheric and Bayrou is higher but we can't see how he could remake his 2007 rise.

This election will be won in the centre, contrary to what Sarkozy and some of his advisers think.
And Hollande is the best choice for the PS in this respect.
Villepin and Mélenchon are stuck to their numbers.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 18, 2011, 05:52:45 AM
CSA poll, for 20 Minutes and BFM TV, 16 May 2011, sample 838 RVs among a total sample of 1007

Socialist primary election:

among the whole sample / among socialists
Hollande 33 / 42
Aubry 23 / 22
Royal 20 / 18
Montebourg 3 / 3
Valls 2 / 2
Moscovici 2 / 1
none 7 / 5
don't know 10 / 7

It's quite in line with Harris, though Royal is higher.

What is surprising in these 2 polls is that the advantage for Hollande is bigger among socialists than among French people in general.

The current media buzz in favour of Aubry ("she can't decline being a candidate"), which I don't really understand in the way it occurs (feminism ? huge leftist bias in French medias ?) -though it'd be of course logical for her to declare a candidacy-, seems not to be in line with what is the reality: among rank-and-file, those who supported DSK will mostly support Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Sam Spade on May 18, 2011, 07:26:04 AM
This is the type of case where no one beats NY tabloids.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/imf_accuser_in_apt_for_hiv_vics_oZmUkbtouJ14RHw1434HvJ

Guess Sarkozy is so damn brilliant that he put him in jail and gave him AIDS too!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 18, 2011, 09:59:51 AM
Secondly, drugging and then anally raping a 14-year old girl didn't make Roman Polanski unpopular in France. Your government took him in and defended him vigorously. In fact, you're defending DSK right now.

Again, the two affairs have really nothing in common. To the points I've made earlier, let me add being an artist isn't the same thing as being a politician, and if Polanski ever ran for an office he wouldn't get half a vote.

Actually they have everything in common.  Once back in France, DSK would be no more extraditable than Polanski was.  That's the primary consideration here.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 18, 2011, 11:35:25 AM
If you manage to read back in this thread the most recent polls I've posted (;)), here is the 3rd one in a row with Hollande largely ahead of Aubry in primary election:

OpinionWay for Le Figaro and LCI, 17-18 May 2011, sample 974 leftist voters (584 socialists, 201 Greens, 189 far-leftists and 193 likely voters in the primary)

among the whole left / among the socialists / among the likely voters

Hollande 49 / 51 / 62
Aubry 27 / 28 / 22
Royal 12 / 13 / 9
Montebourg 7 / 4 / 4
Valls 5 / 4 / 3
(no choice 13 / 9 / 6)

The gap is really significant, even if the last 2 samples are tinier.
No real mini-surge here for Royal, just a big gain for Hollande.

And another hilarious hypothesis, with Delanoë and Fabius and humiliating results for the latter and disappointing ones for the former:

Hollande 45 / 47 / 51
Aubry 24 / 25 / 20
Royal 9 / 10 / 9
Delanoë 9 / 9 / 10
Montebourg 5 / 2 / 3
Valls 5 / 4 / 3
Fabius 3 / 3 / 4 (LOL :D, but also :( as he doesn't deserve such a result)
(no choice 11 / 6 / 6)

Delanoë and Fabius steals votes from all the candidates, except from Valls.
Hollande remains very high.

It seems that Aubry is now pushed to the left of the party. If this is confirmed, it would be a great victory for Hollande as he is able both to be in the center and on the right, ready to grasp centrist voters outside the party.
A pity Hamon isn't tested, so that we can try to confirm this hypothesis.

Of course, we must remain very cautious: I'm not so sure so many people will vote (20% likely voters among the whole left). And those who will vote may be quite different.
And, of course, OpinionWay polls for rightist medias (though we have already noted that they are far from being a joke pollster since 2009).
But, still, Hollande is precisely higher among those who are the surest to vote...

After Harris and CSA, this is the 3rd pollster to have the same trend and a similar gap.
Of course, let's wait for more serious ones, IPSOS, IFOP or SOFRES.

This pre-primary race is now fascinating :).
Enjoy it !
We are completely americanized, now ;):
- DSK in jail
- Daddy Sarkozy
- pre-primary campaign and selection
- non-candidates who are campaigning a bit without being really sure (Borloo, Villepin)
- primaries in small parties (Greens, FG, even NPA in a way).

We really need a VP, now: that would allow Sarkozy to have Borloo and to smooth his image ;D.
And Hollande could pick a young woman or a minority guy or a Green.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 18, 2011, 12:09:42 PM
So we're struck with candidate (and if God wants President) Hollande. What a failure.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 18, 2011, 12:12:38 PM
So we're struck with candidate (and if God wants President) Hollande. What a failure.


Wait, I thought you were a Hollande supporter?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2011, 12:33:22 PM
An Austrian MP is under heavy fire for saying this about DSK in parliament:

"Obwohl er schon ein reiferer Mann, zeigt Dominique Strauss, was er noch Ka(h)nn."

"Even though Dominique Strauss is already a mature man, he still shows what he can (Kahn)."

http://derstandard.at/1304552182958/Grossruck-sorgt-mit-Strauss-Kahn-Reim-fuer-Empoerung

The Greens want him to step down because of that, while the ÖVP backs him. All other parties are condemning the remarks as well.



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2011, 12:38:18 PM
I just read that this ÖVP MP closed his parliamentary sessions always with a rhyme in the last years ... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 18, 2011, 12:50:13 PM
Wait, I thought you were a Hollande supporter?

Nope. I supported DSK and now I'll back the best placed candidate who isn't Hollande or Royal.


An Austrian MP is under heavy fire for saying this about DSK in parliament:

"Obwohl er schon ein reiferer Mann, zeigt Dominique Strauss, was er noch Ka(h)nn."

"Even though Dominique Strauss is already a mature man, he still shows what he can (Kahn)."

http://derstandard.at/1304552182958/Grossruck-sorgt-mit-Strauss-Kahn-Reim-fuer-Empoerung

The Greens want him to step down because of that, while the ÖVP backs him. All other parties are condemning the remarks as well.

What an idiot and an asshole. People like him don't deserve to be a representative of the people.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on May 18, 2011, 01:11:50 PM
Wait, I thought you were a Hollande supporter?

Nope. I supported DSK and now I'll back the best placed candidate who isn't Hollande or Royal.

     Thinking about backing Aubry, then?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 18, 2011, 01:40:30 PM
Wait, I thought you were a Hollande supporter?

Nope. I supported DSK and now I'll back the best placed candidate who isn't Hollande or Royal.

     Thinking about backing Aubry, then?

Definitely (if she runs). I don't hate her like my fellow Frenchie. ;D I think she is a serious person, she knows her job and will be able to counter Sarko's lies. She is definitely a poor speaker, but at least she isn't a useless wimp who will look like Martin Luther Kind for half a second and then will become an absolute joke. Also, for a Jospinian like me, it's normal to have DSK and Aubry as his prefered choices. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on May 18, 2011, 01:54:22 PM
Who is a person like me supposed to support, anyway? Sarkozy? I don't particularly like him, but I don't think his policies are terrible. Is there any credible right-wing alternative?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 18, 2011, 02:00:46 PM
Who is a person like me supposed to support, anyway? Sarkozy? I don't particularly like him, but I don't think his policies are terrible. Is there any credible right-wing alternative?

The first round is basically a free-for-all (unless you're trying to tactically stop Marine Le Fasciste), so probably...

Dominique de Villepin? Jean-Louis Borloo?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 18, 2011, 02:07:32 PM
Who is a person like me supposed to support, anyway? Sarkozy? I don't particularly like him, but I don't think his policies are terrible. Is there any credible right-wing alternative?

Borloo isn't exactly your kind of candidate (too "social"), but if you don't want to vote for Sarkozy that's your best alternative. In the second round, you'd almost certainly vote for Sarkozy (which makes you a HP ;D).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 18, 2011, 02:08:35 PM
Are the polls just assuming DSK is washed up or are they actually polling for him and coming up with him having no support now?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 18, 2011, 03:16:04 PM
Who is a person like me supposed to support, anyway? Sarkozy? I don't particularly like him, but I don't think his policies are terrible. Is there any credible right-wing alternative?

Borloo isn't exactly your kind of candidate (too "social"), but if you don't want to vote for Sarkozy that's your best alternative. In the second round, you'd almost certainly vote for Sarkozy (which makes you a HP ;D).

Wait, Franzl is more centrist than myself and Borloo is quite fine for him.

Méhaignerie would be the closest for Franzl :).



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 18, 2011, 03:17:40 PM
Are the polls just assuming DSK is washed up or are they actually polling for him and coming up with him having no support now?

Just read the last 3 pages of this thread.
DSK isn't polled any longer...

The only poll that is related to him is the CSA one, but I haven't posted these numbers: 57% of French people think it's a conspiracy or a manipulation against him...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 18, 2011, 03:29:58 PM
I hate Aubry because she is an angry and frustrated person and she created a big lie for young people in 1997: "emplois-jeunes", badly paid and uninteresting jobs in public services, a sort of lumpen-proletariate of the State and the local bodies, where they only learn how to work slowly and where the "real" civil servants became used to have these free servants (free as they were paid centrally, not by the local organizations).

Regarding her positioning, which I found very strategic until now (because it was central in the party), it seems that it is changing and that she may be now too much to the left.

I think she has 2 main weaknesses:

- she will be seen as a candidate by default and, what is more, she is more a candidate for Primpe Minister, as if we were in a parliamentarian regime, than a presidential candidate; the current calls by all the apparatchiki for her to decalre her candidacy are ridiculous: "she must be a candidate because she unites the socialists..."; well, they haven't understood the 1962 constitutional reform...

- if she is still far behind Hoàllande in mid-June, Delanoë may well drop her and enter the race: she has no big troops behind her, she is first secretary only because Fabius, Delanoë and DSK's lieutenants picked her in 2008 to kill Royal.

Hollande is outside the apparatus and the fact that he has never been a minister is even an asset these days...

Her only strength is to be a woman.
Because, one day or the other, medias could be fond just of this idea if there is no other "story" to tell during the campaign.

In that respect, the "normal president" positionong of Hollande is fine against DSK and Sarkozy but may backfire if medias become bored and want something "new".
But it may be too late at that time, as candidacies will be closed the 13th of July.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on May 18, 2011, 04:07:17 PM
OK... let me be a hack (only this time):

SEGOLENE 2012!!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 18, 2011, 04:52:01 PM
OK... let me be a hack (only this time):

SEGOLENE 2012!!

If you're not being sarcastic, I agree that she's underrated.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 18, 2011, 07:32:29 PM
I know you guys don't really want this in here, but can I say in relation to the DSK case, that the US practice of very heavy punishments for people who plea 'not guily' strikes me as a bit retarded and more or less likely to result in miscarriages of justice?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 18, 2011, 09:53:09 PM
I know you guys don't really want this in here, but can I say in relation to the DSK case, that the US practice of very heavy punishments for people who plea 'not guily' strikes me as a bit retarded and more or less likely to result in miscarriages of justice?

Well, no.

Not guilty leads to normal punishment.
If you plea "guilty", you usually have a deal with the Attorney, in which you plea guilty and the attorney is asking a more lenient sentence, because you cooperated.

In the attorney view, it is better to have no trial with a reduced punishment than than a lenghly and costly trial, which can be very difficult to witnesses, victims and their families and which can fail to convince the jury.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 19, 2011, 02:22:39 AM
IPSOS polls for Le Monde, Radio France and France Télévisions, 13-14 May and 18 May 2011, samples 948 and 1014

Well, 2 polls in 1, probably because they didn't publish the first one quickly enough and DSK was too fast for them... :P

before / after DSK affair:

Arthaud 2 / 2
NPA candidate 1 / 0.5
Mélenchon 6 / 4
Hollande 26 / 29
Hulot 11 / 11
Bayrou 5 / 5
Borloo 8 / 9
Villepin 4 / 3
Sarkozy 19 / 19
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 0.5
Le Pen 17 / 17

Arthaud 2 / 1
NPA candidate 1 / 0.5
Mélenchon 5 / 4
Aubry 25 / 27
Hulot 9 / 11
Bayrou 6 / 5
Borloo 9 / 9
Villepin 5 / 4
Sarkozy 19 / 21
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 0.5
Le Pen 18 / 17

Arthaud 2 / 2
NPA candidate 1 / 0.5
Mélenchon 8 / 6
Royal 16 / 16
Hulot 12 / 13
Bayrou 7 / 7
Borloo 11 / 12
Villepin 6 / 6
Sarkozy 19 / 19
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 0.5
Le Pen 17 / 18

So...
this put Royal definitiely out, as leftist voters will decide FIRST on the ability to beat Sarkozy: she is unable to make to the second round.
What is interesting in this hypothesis is that both Hulot and Borloo are dangerous for the socialists.

More seriously, with Hollande and Aubry, things seem to be more classical: right-left fight with something as a "vote utile" here, after DSK affair, especially on the left.
It's clear some people fear that Panzergirl may benefit from DSK affair.

Marion "Marine" Le Pen is still very high and Sarkozy hasn't got rid of her. He is above 20% only against Aubry.

This remains his big problem: he has to play the first round on the right, but the second round will be fought on the centre, as Hulot's and Borloo's good results show it.

Please note that IPSOS is now headed by Teinturier, who was in SOFRES for 2007 elections. So, the same little biases are now noticeable in this poll: a rather better result for the socialist candidate, a rather worse result for the FN.
But the trend between the 2 polls is very interesting of course.

And there is the little surprise, which remains one: some medias have said that these polls showed a... victory of Sarkozy in the second round !!!

Until now, I have only found results from the first round. Maybe they want to have twice more publicity for their poll, so they publish it in 2 parts...
To be continued...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: King on May 19, 2011, 03:16:11 AM
So, DSK resigned as IMF chief.  I don't know if the forum as a whole is just apathetic on this issue or if I'm really the first one to read this news.  Usually I'm not the first to report breaking announcements like this, on a European politician no less, so I find the lack of an existing discussion frightening.

IMF's Strauss-Kahn resigns amid sex charges (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110519/ap_on_re_us/imf_future;_ylt=AlXIJELCVfZ03vfWManO9WSs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNhNzZna2d1BGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTEwNTE5L2ltZl9mdXR1cmUEY2NvZGUDbW9zdHBvcHVsYXIEY3BvcwMxBHBvcwMyBHB0A2hvbWVfY29rZQRzZWMDeW5fdG9wX3N0b3J5BHNsawNpbWZzc3RyYXVzcy0-)

WASHINGTON – Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the embattled managing director of International Monetary Fund, has resigned, saying he wanted to devote "all his energy" to battle the sexual assault charges he faces in New York.

The IMF's executive board released a letter from the French executive Wednesday in which he denied the allegations lodged against him but said that with "sadness" he felt he must resign. He said he was thinking of his family and he wanted to protect the IMF.



Also, the accuser is apparently from Guinea so any possibility of a communicative error in English,which I have heard in several comments to this story, is out the window as she probably spoke fluent French.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 19, 2011, 03:47:06 AM
I don't know if the forum as a whole is just apathetic on this issue or if I'm really the first one to read this news.
Usually I'm not the first to report breaking announcements like this, on a European politician no less, so I find the lack of an existing discussion frightening.

Maybe because it has its place in International General Discussion board: it's about IMF, not about French politics.
Don't forget the title of this thread :P...

My posts on polls and political situation are so isolated... ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 19, 2011, 03:59:47 AM
So the PS candidates still leads the 1st round, whith an even increased margin. That's reassuring, but it's too early to rejoice.

WTF, Sarkozy winning second round ? Wasn't even Hollande ahead with like 55% ? ???


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 19, 2011, 05:46:48 AM
I think that many medias (Le Nouvel Obs, Le Point, 20 Minutes,...), this morning, have misread the titles of cables or of the poll itself:
"Sarkozy qualifié pour le 2e tour", "Sarkozy makes it to the second round" in every case
and they have read "Sarkozy winner in the second round".

For the moment, I have no other explanation than stupidity.

Unfortunately, in this sort of cases, it's often the only explanation... :P

So, don't be too afraid, Antonio, all is well for the left ;).

As for me, I'll be glad enough to read that Le Nouvel Obs seems to be more "hollandais" than "aubryste".
I hope Libération won't be too much behind Aubry.

(Le Figaro has just written on Fabius: "well tried, my lords", but nobody will believe them that there is a chance he declares a candidacy ;D too bad ! ;))


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 19, 2011, 07:05:14 AM
I know you guys don't really want this in here, but can I say in relation to the DSK case, that the US practice of very heavy punishments for people who plea 'not guily' strikes me as a bit retarded and more or less likely to result in miscarriages of justice?

Well, no.

Not guilty leads to normal punishment.
If you plea "guilty", you usually have a deal with the Attorney, in which you plea guilty and the attorney is asking a more lenient sentence, because you cooperated.

In the attorney view, it is better to have no trial with a reduced punishment than than a lenghly and costly trial, which can be very difficult to witnesses, victims and their families and which can fail to convince the jury.

Well yeah, but US normal punishments are quite bad and the US doesn't seem to parole-happy. I believe DSK would risk 74 years if he was found guilty of all the charges brought against him. Over here 74 years wouldn't even be given for murder.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 19, 2011, 07:39:13 AM
I know you guys don't really want this in here, but can I say in relation to the DSK case, that the US practice of very heavy punishments for people who plea 'not guily' strikes me as a bit retarded and more or less likely to result in miscarriages of justice?

Well, no.

Not guilty leads to normal punishment.
If you plea "guilty", you usually have a deal with the Attorney, in which you plea guilty and the attorney is asking a more lenient sentence, because you cooperated.

In the attorney view, it is better to have no trial with a reduced punishment than than a lenghly and costly trial, which can be very difficult to witnesses, victims and their families and which can fail to convince the jury.

Well yeah, but US normal punishments are quite bad and the US doesn't seem to parole-happy. I believe DSK would risk 74 years if he was found guilty of all the charges brought against him. Over here 74 years wouldn't even be given for murder.

If he is innocent, he has no reason to worry. The American justice has its flaws, but doesn't seem as prone to judicial errors as the French one.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on May 19, 2011, 07:56:48 AM
It's not like maximum penalties are really given very often in cases like this, and certainly not for someone like DSK. His lawyers will get him a relatively good sentence even if he's guilty.

On another issue....I'm really having trouble figuring out what I personally believe. It would be nice if this were some big misunderstanding, but I dunno...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Gustaf on May 19, 2011, 08:16:02 AM
It's not like maximum penalties are really given very often in cases like this, and certainly not for someone like DSK. His lawyers will get him a relatively good sentence even if he's guilty.

On another issue....I'm really having trouble figuring out what I personally believe. It would be nice if this were some big misunderstanding, but I dunno...

From what I read 20 years is likely to be the max punishment and even that is not particularly likely.

And so far there seems to be plenty of indications that he's guilty, while there is really nothing indicating that this is a conspiracy (which seems to be the only alternative explanation).

Anyway, since the police apparently have blood found on the sheets and semen found on the floor (that is, according to the media reports I've seen) I assume the case will be pretty clear-cut once the tests have been run. 


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Verily on May 19, 2011, 09:08:08 AM
CSA apparently has a poll out saying that 60% of French believe DSK was set up. Yeah, he definitely isn't a flight risk and definitely wouldn't be welcomed with open arms...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 19, 2011, 09:19:13 AM
CSA apparently has a poll out saying that 60% of French believe DSK was set up. Yeah, he definitely isn't a flight risk and definitely wouldn't be welcomed with open arms...


France most certainly wouldn't welcome DSK with open arms.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 19, 2011, 09:22:09 AM
His defence team seems to be gearing up to argue that it was consensual. So, yeah; he's guilty. The only question now being whether his lawyers can smear the victim enough to get him off regardless, something that is not exactly unknown in rape trials.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 19, 2011, 09:46:09 AM
IFOP poll for le Journal du Dimanche, 17-18 May 2011, sample 951

Who would be a "good candidate" for the PS ?

among the whole sample / among the leftists / among the socialists

Hollande 57 / 76 / 80
Aubry 47 / 76 / 81
Delanoë 36 / 57 / 59
Fabius 28 / 39 / 39
Valls 25 / 34 / 40
Royal 23 / 42 / 45
Montebourg 20 / 37 / 37
Moscovici 20 / 32 / 38
Hamon 19 / 33 / 35

A "bad candidate" ?

Hollande 30 / 20 / 16
Aubry 40 / 19 / 15
Delanoë 47 / 35 / 33
Fabius 56 / 53 / 54
Valls 45 / 44 / 43
Royal 65 / 54 / 50
Montebourg 52 / 43 / 46
Moscovici 50 / 45 / 43
Hamon 53 / 46 / 47

Of course, this type of poll is partly stupid as most people who answer aren't even able to think outside the distinction between real candidates (Hollande, Aubry, Valls, Montebourg) and only possible ones (Delanoë, Fabius, Moscovici).

Please note how Fabius and even more Royal are rejected (Palin syndrome, sort of :P).

Delanoë is confirmed as the only one who could enter the race with good prospects.
I think he might declare if Aubry isn't able to rise a bit in polls against Hollande.

Of course, Aubry isn't far behind Hollande inside the left in terms of favorability.
But her problem is that Hollande is clearly seen as being far more likely to win (see the 3 other polls on primaries since the last week-end).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 19, 2011, 01:09:59 PM
Of course the fact the possibility of consensual sex as his defense is evoked (though so far it's only a rumour and we shouldn't be too quick) seems to make his guiltiness far more likely. It might very well be true however.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 19, 2011, 01:19:26 PM
Of course the fact the possibility of consensual sex as his defense is evoked (though so far it's only a rumour and we shouldn't be too quick) seems to make his guiltiness far more likely. It might very well be true however.

The woman that provided call-girls to Spitzer said she provided some also to DSK... Another tabloid, though :P

And Le Point said his last word before having been arrested in the plane was "quel beau c.l!" about a female steward ("what a beautiful a.s !").

There, here we are, our medias are now officially americanized.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 19, 2011, 01:40:40 PM
Yeah, everybody knew he was a "hot rabbit". And that's irrelevant.

Now I'd really like to know what evidence the accusation really has, because this will change a lot of things. A lot has been said so far, but nothing confirmed. Things will be clearer in the next days.

As I've said, and for cruel that this might be, I really wish he is guilty.



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 19, 2011, 01:42:32 PM
Incriminated. Now we'll see.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 19, 2011, 02:41:42 PM
Interesting debate/show on France 2.

For once, Manuel Valls is excellent.

Edit : really excellent.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 19, 2011, 02:56:15 PM
The bail is aceepted. Common sense has won, eventually.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on May 19, 2011, 03:41:19 PM
The bail is accepted. Common sense has won, eventually.

That he had time to make arrangements for living in NY under house detention and given up his IMF post (along with any possible use of a diplomatic passport) likely helped.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 19, 2011, 03:45:22 PM
Back to business, the only interesting one here ;D

Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 15-16 May 2011, sample 802
on socialist primaries

Let's be careful, the sample is tiny, but still, the gap is huge:

among the socialists / among the whole left
Hollande 49 / 37
Aubry 23 / 22
Royal 10 / 14
Montebourg 1 / 4
Valls 3 / 2
nobe of them 14 / 21

Considering the socialists are the most likely to vote, this is good for Hollande.
Let's hope Royal will mess some things around, forcing Aubry to deal with lil' quarrels inside the party and Hollande will be safe.

(great news ! ;D)

Guys, there was also an hypothesis with DSK !!! They were a bit ashamed of it and the maelstrom brought everything with it...

Hollande 38 / 30
DSK 27 / 27
Aubry 19 / 19
Royal 8 / 12
Montebourg 1 / 3
Valls 3 / 2
none 3 / 6
don't know 1 / 1

So, even before the Affair, Hollande was above DSK (and Aubry) !!!

Amazing, even if it's Harris Interactive....

Well, I better understand why all the apparatchiki who smell the old SFIO (Emmanuelli, Bartolone, Cohen, Lamy, Désir,...) are so eager to see Aubry declaring her candidacy... There is really something pushing Hollande !

In a way, the Affair has prevented a BIG title in favour of Hollande: imagine this !!! Hollande above DSK !!!

A pity, really....


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 19, 2011, 04:08:07 PM
OMG... Well, this gives us another possible theory : that a partisan of left unity who had know about the poll before anyone else became afraid of tough primaries between DSK and Hollande, and decided to "eliminate" the runner-up in order to ensure an easy win for Hollande. ;D
Or a supporter of Martine Aubry who wanted to give her a better chance to win. ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: tpfkaw on May 20, 2011, 09:38:10 AM
Several blogs I read, written by radical libertarians, seem to be on DSK's side.  Strange bedfellows, eh, Tony?

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/05/case-for-imf-chief-dominique-strauss.html


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 20, 2011, 10:47:32 AM
OMG... Well, this gives us another possible theory : that a partisan of left unity who had know about the poll before anyone else became afraid of tough primaries between DSK and Hollande, and decided to "eliminate" the runner-up in order to ensure an easy win for Hollande. ;D
Or a supporter of Martine Aubry who wanted to give her a better chance to win. ;D

And now Aubrysts and Cambadélis are trying to force the idea of dropping the primary and deciding ina "consensus" who is candidate... ::)
Like when Aubry "democratically" won the first secretariat, eh ?...

Are they mad ? Or are they really thieves and specialists of shenanigans ?
I mean, let's keep on like this, after having shouted everywhere the UMP is a dictatorial party and primaries were the ultimate democratic process...

Anyway, another poll which is bad for Delanoë and good for Hollande:

TNS-SOFRES poll for Canal +, 17-18 May 2011, sample 962

Who has the best chances to win the presidential election ?

among the whole sample / among socialists
Hollande 38 / 49
Aubry 18 / 22
Royal 8 / 9
Fabius 5 / 4
Delanoë 3 / 3
Valls 1 / 0
Montebourg 1 / 1
none 16 / 8
don'tknow 10 / 4

These are the "first" answers, because each person polled was able to give more than one answer.
With the total of references:
Hollande 56 / 71
Aubry 44 / 61
Royal 14 / 15
Fabius 12 / 9
Delanoë 7 / 9
Valls 4 / 3
Montebourg 3 / 2
none 16 / 8
don't know 10 / 4

Well, of course, the first series of numbers is the most important one, but the second series revel shat Aubry isn't rejected at all: she is just a far second...

And SOFRES has asked the good question, I think, because voters in the primaries will take into account the electability before any other criterion.

If the apparatchiki (sorry, I don't know how to call them otherwise, as this is so adequate... when you see what Bartolone, Emmanuelli, Hamon, Cambadélis, Désir, Assouline, Lamy, Lebranchu, etc. are able to say and do...) don't steal the vote, well, Hollande is clearly, for the moment, the favourite.

I still think Delanoë could be a more threatening contender for Hollande than Aubry. We'll see.

It's really enjoyable :D, whatever the result.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 20, 2011, 01:25:47 PM
You know I've no sympathy for Hollande, but cancelling the primaries would be a catastrophe and would head the PS to an epic failure. I don't know how much credit to give to these rumours, though. The PS is a losing machine, we know that, but they should be really demented to do that now.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 20, 2011, 01:48:40 PM
Several blogs I read, written by radical libertarians, seem to be on DSK's side.  Strange bedfellows, eh, Tony?

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/05/case-for-imf-chief-dominique-strauss.html

As usual with conspiracy theories, there are some intriguing elements and a lot of bullsh*t.
On the first side, the points he makes about the hotel's behaviour, the victim's attorney, the fact DSK could (and did) simply get call-girls, and more generally the fact it comes extremely opportunely for several people. To this we can add the fact the person who have seen him that day all affirm he was calm and acted normally. Again, that's not evidence of anything, but that's nonetheless elements to consider.
As for the bullsh*t, the muslim/headscarf stuff is just ridiculous. And La Conquête, which I've just seen a couple of hours ago, is not an anti-Sarkozy movie and was absolutely never expected to hurt Sarko in any way. It's wasn't ever intended to make a political point, it's mostly factual and tells what everybody already knows.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 20, 2011, 04:35:14 PM
You know I've no sympathy for Hollande, but cancelling the primaries would be a catastrophe and would head the PS to an epic failure. I don't know how much credit to give to these rumours, though. The PS is a losing machine, we know that, but they should be really demented to do that now.

Unfortunately (oh, I should say "fortunately" if I'd react like an UMP-hack ;)), that's not rumours.
Cambadélis and Valls are slightly less extreme than Patriat or Bartolone: the former want only "suspension" while the latter want a complete stop.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Sam Spade on May 20, 2011, 05:27:31 PM
Several blogs I read, written by radical libertarians, seem to be on DSK's side.  Strange bedfellows, eh, Tony?

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/05/case-for-imf-chief-dominique-strauss.html

It is no accident that those who cannot obtain sex by normal means tend to be the most supportive of rape


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 21, 2011, 04:26:23 AM
You know I've no sympathy for Hollande, but cancelling the primaries would be a catastrophe and would head the PS to an epic failure. I don't know how much credit to give to these rumours, though. The PS is a losing machine, we know that, but they should be really demented to do that now.

Unfortunately (oh, I should say "fortunately" if I'd react like an UMP-hack ;)), that's not rumours.
Cambadélis and Valls are slightly less extreme than Patriat or Bartolone: the former want only "suspension" while the latter want a complete stop.

I've heard Valls on France 2 thursday and he talked about "mettre les primaires entre parenthèses". Maybe I'm overly naive, but I simply interpreted it as meaning candidates suspending their campaign, not about cancelling the primaries outright. A few guys like Bartolone may call for that, but I doubt the leadership will be silly enough to follow.

And well, if Aubry really wants to be candidate, she could start actually campaigning now. She certainly can beat Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 22, 2011, 07:00:39 AM
Aubry on France 2 a couple of minutes ago. So yeah, looks like she will be a candidate. She can win IMO, she certainly will have a strong appeal as the "normal" candidate and the non-egocentric one. But she'll have to start campaigning really.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 22, 2011, 08:46:06 AM
Aubry on France 2 a couple of minutes ago. So yeah, looks like she will be a candidate. She can win IMO, she certainly will have a strong appeal as the "normal" candidate and the non-egocentric one. But she'll have to start campaigning really.

Why could she win NOW ?
She has said nothing really different from Hollande, even stealing his "normal" word.
2 things can help her: she is a woman and medias can be fond of a female president; if the primaries are essentially a socialist affair, all the apparatus being behind her may give her an advantage.
At the same time, Hollande is stronger than her in polls, and even stronger among leftists or socialists.
And he has a good asset: he is undoubtedly a stronger contender for Sarkozy than Aubry. Just imagine her in face of Sarkozy between the 2 rounds... Even Royal wasn't good...

Well, it's of course still open and Hollande hasn't won yet, far from it.
But if she wins, that'll be by default, in a way, with DSK and Fabius unvoluntarily out, Delanoë voluntarily and stupidly out, Hollande being disadvantaged by a DSK... ousted too early !

At least, it's really interesting ;).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 22, 2011, 09:08:46 AM
I know you really hate her, but I think you're underestimating her a bit. Of course she is the runner-up and Hollande seems a better candidate, both in the primaries and the general election. But frankly, there were so much talks about DSK's strength being inflated, and now we should consider Hollande's lead as definitive ?

Hollande is "normal" in the populist/Chirac/GW Bush sense. The nice guy you could have a drink with, and all this crap. That might please the people, but it's still a fraud. Aubry isn't IMO trying to imitate him. By "normal", it's more to mean a normal politician, a more traditional one. Ie someone who focuses on the party, the collectivity and all this. On project rather than personality, etc... Of course this has never worked well in the 5th Republic, but if people are fed up enough of Sarko's egomania, there could be some backlash in favor of old-style, more low-key politicians who can play in a team.

Also, Aubry is a poor orator, but a decent (pretty good, if you want my opinion) debater. I think she would be far more advantaged than Hollande in a debate against Sarkozy. Really, Hollande is a failure like Royal was, like her he is high in the polls because he says nothing but says it smiling. Aubry is less attractive, but far more safe and less likely to kill herself.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 22, 2011, 12:42:04 PM
IFOP poll for La Lettre de l'Opinion, 17-19 May 2011, 1897 RVs out of a whole sample of 2025

Hollande 26 / Aubry 24
Sarkozy 22.5 / 22.5

Le Pen 21 / 21.5
Borloo 6.5 / 7
Hulot 6 / 6
Bayrou 5 / 5.5
Mélenchon 6 / 6.5
Villepin 3.5 / 3.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Chevènement 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1

Le Pen still high, but Sarkozy slightly on the rise.
Hollande still a bit better than Aubry.

Polsters are really very different ont he great central scene, though Borloo seems to be a bit better than Bayrou and Hulot.
The arrivals are alxays in different order...
Except for Villepin who is constantly down.
Mélenchon is a bit better here.

The complete results aren't available yet.
But we already see that Hollande is better placed among older people: 28 against 25 for Aubry among the 35 years old and more; 21 against 22 among the less than 35.
A very tiny difference but again a small good point for Hollande as younger people are less likely to vote.

We'll see how the nearing declaration of candidacy by Aubry changes all this.
If she has a big media coverage, maybe the leftist voters will change their mind as, clearly, the only point that counts is "who is better placed to beat Sarkozy ?"

And Hollande may now have difficulties to propose something new, after his normality stance against Sarkozy (and DSK) and his underdog's momentum against big DSK.

Last but not least, this poll has received little coverage, whereas it has a big sample...
Maybe "poor" political journalists are tired after one amazing week...
Stupid French medias...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RodPresident on May 22, 2011, 08:14:34 PM
2007 Bayrou voters look that are going now for Borloo, Villepin (who votes Villepin not voted Sarkozy in 2007) and Marine. They want a new thing in politics


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 23, 2011, 02:19:28 AM
2007 Bayrou voters look that are going now for Borloo, Villepin (who votes Villepin not voted Sarkozy in 2007) and Marine.

Also for Hulot.

As for Villepin and Borloo, some former Sarkozy voters are supporting them (yes, even Villepin), but centre-right voters who are so upset with Sarkozy that they are able to vote for some sort of socialist in the second round (DSK and then Hollande).
There is really a split inside the right here.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 23, 2011, 03:08:24 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #3 - 23 May 2011

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. There is a generic NPA candidate while we are waiting for Besancenot's replacement.

I've said that I'd keep 3 trackers with DSK, Aubry and Hollande, until the scene is clearer.
The scene is now clearer ;D.
My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is again changed, with no longer DSK in it: 0.0 instead of 0.1 DSK, 0.6 instead of 0.5 Hollande and still 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and will lose a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; etc).
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)



23 May Aubry sub-tracker:

Arthaud      0,89   
NPA      1,49   
Mélenchon   5,16   
Chevènement   0,55   
Aubry      23,84   
Hulot      7,91   
Bayrou      5,89   
Borloo      8,48   
Villepin      4,09   
Sarkozy      21,23   
Dupont-Aignan   1,06
Le Pen      19,40
   



23 May Hollande sub-tracker:

Arthaud      1,02
NPA      1,46
Mélenchon   5,12
Chevènement   0,66
Hollande      24,78
Hulot      8,13
Bayrou      5,62
Borloo      7,78
Villepin      3,83
Sarkozy      20,81
Dupont-Aignan   0,99
Le Pen      19,79




23 May generic socialist sub-tracker:

Arthaud      0,97
NPA      1,47
Mélenchon   5,14
Chevènement   0,61
PS      24,41
Hulot      8,04
Bayrou      5,73
Borloo      8,06
Villepin      3,94
Sarkozy      20,98
Dupont-Aignan   1,02
Le Pen      19,63


Sarkozy still on the rise but not far above Le Pen.
NPA candidate is gradually fading away.
Things are more levelled in the centre ground and a bit down, especially for Borloo and Hulot whose momentums seem to have stopped.

The aggregate PS candidate is of course lower, with DSK being ousted now, but the numbers are better for Hollande and Aubry this week with a seemingly "vote utile" after the DSK affair, which seems to have been quite good for the socialists, after all....

Overall, a more classical left-right fight, with the PS ahead, a huge chunk of undecided "centrist" voters and a lasting Le Pen threat.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 23, 2011, 03:11:15 AM
FTR:

   9 May   16 May   23 May   
Arthaud   0,64   0,64   0,89   Arthaud
NPA   3,12   2,93   1,49   NPA
Mélenchon   4,41   4,41   5,16   Mélenchon
Chevènement   0,82   0,90   0,55   Chevènement
Aubry   21,26   21,17   23,84   Aubry
Hulot   8,55   8,65   7,91   Hulot
Bayrou   6,23   6,31   5,89   Bayrou
Borloo   9,83   10,03   8,48   Borloo
Villepin   4,61   4,50   4,09   Villepin
Sarkozy   19,96   19,96   21,23   Sarkozy
Dupont-Aignan   0,98   1,00   1,06   Dupont-Aignan
Le Pen   19,59   19,49   19,40   Le Pen


Arthaud   0,79   0,68   1,02   Arthaud
NPA   3,14   2,37   1,46   NPA
Mélenchon   4,43   4,61   5,12   Mélenchon
Chevènement   0,86   1,10   0,66   Chevènement
Hollande   21,5   22,01   24,78   Hollande
Hulot   8,71   8,36   8,13   Hulot
Bayrou   6,14   6,11   5,62   Bayrou
Borloo   9   8,18   7,78   Borloo
Villepin   4,86   4,40   3,83   Villepin
Sarkozy   19,57   20,37   20,81   Sarkozy
Dupont-Aignan   1   0,83   0,99   Dupont-Aignan
Le Pen   20   20,97   19,79   Le Pen
   

Arthaud   0,70   0,67   0,97   Arthaud
NPA   3,13   2,60   1,47   NPA
Mélenchon   4,42   4,53   5,14   Mélenchon
Chevènement   0,84   1,02   0,61   Chevènement
PS   21,36   21,67   24,41   PS
Hulot   8,61   8,47   8,04   Hulot
Bayrou   6,19   6,19   5,73   Bayrou
Borloo   9,50   8,92   8,06   Borloo
Villepin   4,71   4,44   3,94   Villepin
Sarkozy   19,80   20,21   20,98   Sarkozy
Dupont-Aignan   0,99   0,90   1,02   Dupont-Aignan
Le Pen   19,75   20,37   19,63   Le Pen
   


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 23, 2011, 05:03:38 AM
Weird swings this week... Both socialist leaders have gained a lot (so maybe DSK's eliminations suddenly made Aubry and Hollande more "credible" as candidates). Sarkozy significantly higher against Aubry and slightly higher against Hollande, Le Pen significantly lower against Hollande and unchanged against Aubry. Hulot and Borloo lose ground, especially against Hollande, while Mélenchon gains somewhat. The NPA falls into irrelevancy, and Chevènement is headed to be this year's Schivardi.

Just a technical question... When you say you reduce the weigh of a poll by 15% each week, do you mean 15% "arithmetically" or "geometrically" ? Ie does it go 100% -> 85% -> 70% -> 55% etc or 100% -> 85% -> 72% -> 61% etc ? It will change a lot with very old polls.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 23, 2011, 06:50:40 AM
Weird swings this week... Both socialist leaders have gained a lot (so maybe DSK's eliminations suddenly made Aubry and Hollande more "credible" as candidates). Sarkozy significantly higher against Aubry and slightly higher against Hollande, Le Pen significantly lower against Hollande and unchanged against Aubry. Hulot and Borloo lose ground, especially against Hollande, while Mélenchon gains somewhat. The NPA falls into irrelevancy, and Chevènement is headed to be this year's Schivardi.

Just a technical question... When you say you reduce the weigh of a poll by 15% each week, do you mean 15% "arithmetically" or "geometrically" ? Ie does it go 100% -> 85% -> 70% -> 55% etc or 100% -> 85% -> 72% -> 61% etc ? It will change a lot with very old polls.

Arithmetically, so 1 / 0.85 / 0.7 / 0.55 / 0.4 / 0.25 / 0.1
It's giving too much weight to old polls (geometrically would be worse, though), I know, but we don't have much polls to "play with" :P.

From September, I think it will be busier and I'll probably change my weighting.
And of course, after the 16th of October, all will be clearer.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 23, 2011, 06:59:05 AM
Yeah, arithmetically makes more sense IMO. Let's hope we'll get more polls soon, but so far the ponderation seems to work well and doesn't prevent us from catching potentially significant swings (like the socialist bump this week).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RodPresident on May 24, 2011, 12:07:56 AM
Chevenement can take some Marine voters because his appeal is the same, but less xenophobic and controversial than FN. If he goes well, he can go to 2002 levels or few more, but he drains voters from FN and PS.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 24, 2011, 02:03:25 AM
BVA poll for RTL, Orange and local press, 20-21 May 2011, sample 960

Hollande 27 / Aubry 24
Sarkozy 22 / 23

Le Pen 17 / 17
Hulot 12 / 12
Bayrou 4 / 6
Borloo 6 / 7
Villepin 5 / 5
Mélenchon 6 / 5
Arthaud 1 / 1
NPA 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 0 / 0

Without Borloo, Villepin and Dupont-Aignan:

Hollande 29 / Aubry 26
Sarkozy 21 / 22

Le Pen 19 / 19
Hulot 13 / 13
Bayrou 8 / 10
Mélenchon 6 / 6
Arthaud 2 / 2
NPA 1 / 1

There are really 2 worlds among pollsters: those with Le Pen just behind Sarkozy and those with a safer margin for the president.
And those with Hulot high and those with Borloo high.

Otherwise, Hollande has now taken a part of DSK's heritage: he is able to steal voters from Bayrou, Borloo and Sarkozy. Of course, in lesser extent than DSK.

Interestingly, another poll which proves that Sarkozy is very low and weak: he gains only 1 point when all the other rightist candidates are taken off... The PS candidate is at +2, Hulot at +1, Bayrou at +4 and... Le Pen at +2 !!!

Second round:
Hollande 62 / Aubry 59
Sarkozy 38 / 41

From 1st to 2nd round, numbers aren't really reliable:
from NPA, 54% to Aubry and 46% to Sarkozy ??? (but 70% to Hollande and 30% to Sarkozy)
from Arthaud, 67% to Aubry and 22% to Sarkozy !!! and 19% to Hollande and 4% to Sarkozy ???
from Villepin, 52% to Aubry and 28% to Sarkozy, but 49% to Hollande and 41% to Sarkozy LOL

Still, some interesting figures:
from Hulot, 60% to Aubry and 61% to Hollande (22 and 18 to Sarkozy)
from Bayrou, 48% to Aubry and 57% to Hollande (25 and 23 to Sarkozy)
from Borloo, 47% to Aubry and 53% to Hollande (47 and 32 to Sarkozy)

This is where Hollande is stronger: in a second round, he is better than Aubry and Sarkozy has, anyway, a real problem with the centre-right and the centre.

From Le Pen, 36% to Aubry and 27% to Sarkozy, 33% to Hollande and 29% to Sarkozy.
This is where Sarkozy is trapped: forced to be on the far-right not to be below her on the first round; then totally unsellable in the 2nd roudn among the centre-right but also for Le Pen voters...

The left is really lucky not to have had this DSK affair in December ;).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 24, 2011, 02:23:07 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #3 - 23 May 2011

()

()

Well, I haven't much time: colors aren't exactly what I wanted and it's not very clear... Antonio may be able to do better ;).

We still see the effect of DSK's downfall and the second graph gives us an idea of "vote utile".


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 24, 2011, 02:29:53 AM
()

()

Same thing with Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 24, 2011, 04:25:15 AM
My graph is prettier :P but I'll wait until we have a bit more points to show it.

WTF ? Sarkozy doesn't even gain one point when Villepin, Borloo and NDA aren't polled ? ???


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on May 24, 2011, 10:23:02 AM
A new phone poll made by TNS-Sofres (20-21 May, sample 1013 registered voters):

Hollande is on the rise, mostly at the expense of the far-left candidates. In the only hypothesis it is possible to compare with the previous wave, Mélenchon seems to be hurt by Hollande. It’s also fascinating to imagine where the former Besancenot voters are going, now he is replaced by Myriam Martin, at last in this poll (it will be interesting to follow the race for the last spot between her and Arthaud). And Joly is basically tied with Hulot.   

For the second round, TNS has basically the same results as BVA for Hulot and Bayrou voters, but those who voted first for Borloo or Le Pen tend to vote a little more for Sarkozy in the 2nd round.

With Hollande and Joly

Arthaud 1 % (=)
Myriam Martin < 0,5 % (- <7,5)
Mélenchon 3 % (-4)
Hollande 28 %/58 % (+6/+2)
Joly 7 % (+0,5)
Bayrou 5,5 % (+0,5)
Borloo 8 % (+4)
Villepin 3,5 % (-1,5)
Sarkozy 24/42 % (+1/-2)
Le Pen 20 % (+1,5)

Turnout : 87 %

With Hollande and Hulot

Arthaud 1 %
Martin < 0,5 %
Mélenchon 3,5 %
Hollande 31 %/58 % (+2)
Hulot 8 %
Bayrou 5,5 %
Borloo 7 %
Villepin 3 %
Sarkozy 22/42 % (-2)
Le Pen 19 %

Turnout : 87 %

With Aubry and Hulot

Arthaud 1 %
Martin < 0,5 %
Mélenchon 4 %
Aubry 28 %/56 % (=)
Hulot 9 %
Bayrou 5 %
Borloo 7 %
Villepin 3 %
Sarkozy 24/44 % (=)
Le Pen 19 %

Turnout : 87 %

With Royal and Hulot

Arthaud 1 %
Martin < 0,5 %
Mélenchon 7 %
Royal 18 %
Hulot 10,5 %
Bayrou 7 %
Borloo 9 %
Villepin 3,5 %
Sarkozy 24%
Le Pen 20 %


Turnout : 85 %

With Delanoë and Hulot

Arthaud 1 %
Martin < 0,5 %
Mélenchon 5,5 %
Delanoë 17,5 %
Hulot 12 %
Bayrou 6 %
Borloo 9,5 %
Villepin 3,5 %
Sarkozy 24,5%
Le Pen 20,5 %

 
Turnout : 84 %

With Fabius and Hulot

Arthaud 1 %
Martin < 0,5 %
Mélenchon 6 %
Fabius 15 %
Hulot 11 %
Bayrou 8 %
Borloo 9,5 %
Villepin 4 %
Sarkozy 24,5%
Le Pen 20,5 %


Turnout : 84 %




Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 24, 2011, 02:50:43 PM
My graph is prettier :P but I'll wait until we have a bit more points to show it.
I believe you, that's easy :D. I've just used the graph option of Excel, shame on me !


WTF ? Sarkozy doesn't even gain one point when Villepin, Borloo and NDA aren't polled ? ???

In fact, yes, as I've said in the comment. The numbers were false.
But he only gains one point...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 25, 2011, 03:51:10 AM
A new phone poll made by TNS-Sofres (20-21 May, sample 1013 registered voters):

Hollande is on the rise, mostly at the expense of the far-left candidates. In the only hypothesis it is possible to compare with the previous wave, Mélenchon seems to be hurt by Hollande. It’s also fascinating to imagine where the former Besancenot voters are going, now he is replaced by Myriam Martin, at last in this poll (it will be interesting to follow the race for the last spot between her and Arthaud). And Joly is basically tied with Hulot.   

For the second round, TNS has basically the same results as BVA for Hulot and Bayrou voters, but those who voted first for Borloo or Le Pen tend to vote a little more for Sarkozy in the 2nd round.


To be complete, this poll was made for Le Nouvel Observateur and i-Télé.

Transfers from first to second round:
from Le Pen: 25% to Hollande and 54% to Sarkozy / 23% to Aubry and 53% to Sarkozy (too perfect to be true in a way...)
from Hulot: 53% to Hollande and 27% to SArkozy / 58% to Aubry and 28% to Sarkozy (again, too perfect...)
from Bayrou: 70% to Hollande and 27% to Sarkozy / 52% to Aubry and 43% to Sarkozy
from Borloo: 38% to Hollande and 42% to Sarkozy / 34% to Aubry and 46% to Sarkozy

What I find surprising is the gap in Hollande and Sarkozy results in the 2 hypotheses of Hulot and Joly...
Or people polled are so clever that there is a transfer from Hollande to Green candidate, from Green candidate to Bayrou, Bayrou to Borloo, Borloo to Sarkozy and the other way round ?
That's doubtful...

The only good thing for the right is the fact that Delanoë and Fabius are so low.
Of course, people polled may think that it's so hypothetical that they can have fun by answering Hulot instead.
But isn't it a weakness for the PS ?
If they dive into internal fightings, won't they lose votes to Hulot more easily than we think ?

The best asset of the left is really... Sarkozy.
Nothing will be stronger than the "anyone but Sarko" (even the "anyone but Hollande" :P...)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 30, 2011, 04:04:21 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #4 - 30 May 2011

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. There is a generic NPA candidate while we are waiting for Besancenot's replacement.

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; etc).
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)



30 May Aubry sub-tracker:

Arthaud      0,92
NPA      1,13
Mélenchon   4,98
Chevènement   0,39
Aubry      24,57
Hulot      8,66
Bayrou      5,77
Borloo      8,02
Villepin      4,04
Sarkozy      21,78
Dupont-Aignan   0,75
Le Pen      18,97
   



30 May Hollande sub-tracker:

Arthaud      1,02
NPA      1,13
Mélenchon   5,03
Chevènement   0,49
Hollande      26,01
Hulot      8,61
Bayrou      5,39
Borloo      7,43
Villepin      3,84
Sarkozy      21,03
Dupont-Aignan   0,73
Le Pen      19,29




30 May generic socialist sub-tracker:

Arthaud      0,98
NPA      1,13
Mélenchon   5,01
Chevènement   0,45
PS      25,43
Hulot      8,63
Bayrou      5,54
Borloo      7,66
Villepin      3,92
Sarkozy      21,33
Dupont-Aignan   0,74
Le Pen      19,17


Sarkozy is levelling out, but, as Le Pen is again slightly down, he remains safe.
NPA candidate is gradually fading away.
Things are more levelled in the centre ground and still down for Borloo and Bayrou. Hulot is slightly bouncing back.

The PS candidates (Hollande, Aubry, aggregate) are again on the rise. Hollande is still better placed than Aubry, but we'll see what happens next as in polls for primaries, Aubry is on the rise (I'll publish soon an IFOP poll when it's complete).

Overall, an even more classical left-right fight is confirmed, with the PS ahead; still a huge chunk of undecided "centrist" voters and a lasting Le Pen threat.

FTR:

   9 May   16 May   23 May   30 May
Arthaud   0,64   0,64   0,89   0,92
NPA   3,12   2,93   1,49   1,13
Mél.   4,41   4,41   5,16   4,98
Chev.   0,82   0,90   0,55   0,39
Aubry   21,26   21,17   23,84   24,57
Hulot   8,55   8,65   7,91   8,66
Bayrou   6,23   6,31   5,89   5,77
Borloo   9,83   10,03   8,48   8,02
Villepin   4,61   4,50   4,09   4,04
Sarkozy   19,96   19,96   21,23   21,78
Dupont-A.   0,98   1,00   1,06   0,75
Le Pen   19,59   19,49   19,40   18,97

   9 May   16 May   23 May   30 May
Arthaud   0,79   0,68   1,02   1,02
NPA   3,14   2,37   1,46   1,13
Mél.   4,43   4,61   5,12   5,03
Chev.   0,86   1,10   0,66   0,49
Hollande   21,5   22,01   24,78   26,01
Hulot   8,71   8,36   8,13   8,61
Bayrou   6,14   6,11   5,62   5,39
Borloo   9   8,18   7,78   7,43
Villepin   4,86   4,40   3,83   3,84
Sarkozy   19,57   20,37   20,81   21,03
Dupont-A.   1   0,83   0,99   0,73
Le Pen   20   20,97   19,79   19,29

   9 May   16 May   23 May   30 May
Arthaud   0,70   0,67   0,97   0,98
NPA   3,13   2,60   1,47   1,13
Mél.   4,42   4,53   5,14   5,01
Chev.   0,84   1,02   0,61   0,45
PS   21,36   21,67   24,41   25,43
Hulot   8,61   8,47   8,04   8,63
Bayrou   6,19   6,19   5,73   5,54
Borloo   9,50   8,92   8,06   7,66
Villepin   4,71   4,44   3,94   3,92
Sarkozy   19,80   20,21   20,98   21,33
Dupont-A.   0,99   0,90   1,02   0,74
Le Pen   19,75   20,37   19,63   19,17


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 30, 2011, 04:36:08 AM
IFOP poll for France-Soir, 19-27 May 2011, 1018 leftists and 505 socialists out of a total sample of 1919

among leftists / among socialists (change from preceding IFOP poll, 17-19 May)
Hollande 39 (-2) / 46 (-4)
Aubry 33 (+5) / 35 (+8)
Royal 12 (+2) / 9 (=)
Montebourg 5 (-2) / 3 (-1)
Valls 4 (=) / 4 (+1)
another one 2 (-8) / 1 (-6)
none of these 4 (+4) / 2 (+2)
don't know 1 (+1) / 0 (=)

Aubry is on the rise, due to the mediatic noise around the PS "project" and around her now obvious candidacy.

She'll probably wait for the last minute to declare, so that she can be able to benefit from party's structures and from media coverage on PS events until the end of June.

She is probably about to further narrow the gap. Will she be able to climb above Hollande ?
That remains to be seen and, considering the present trends, we won't know for sure until September. Unfortunately.
Then, we'll see where the momentum is.

If Aubry peaks too early, that could be a good thing for Hollande, who will be able to grasp the comeback of the pendulum...

Moscovici seems willing to declare his candidacy too, but he'll probably be at Valls' levels.
Logically, he could cost some points to Hollande, but I'm not sure polled people from the left answer based on ideological criterions...
(the biggest difference between Hollande and Aubry is about sex and age)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 30, 2011, 04:57:21 AM
(the biggest difference between Hollande and Aubry is about sex and age)

I would have said than the biggest difference was personality.
Which is very important in a personalist primary like that.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 30, 2011, 07:22:57 AM
(the biggest difference between Hollande and Aubry is about sex and age)

I would have said than the biggest difference was personality.
Which is very important in a personalist primary like that.

Oh sorry :D, I wasn't very clear...:
I meant the biggest difference between the people polled who support each of them ;D, not the difference between comrade François and comrade Martine !

Hollande is stronger among older people and among men, Aubry among younger people (even though not the youngest) and women.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 30, 2011, 01:15:51 PM
Updated the tracker. The graph is slowly starting to look nice, but I'll wait another week before showing it. ;)

I don't know if it's normal, but the Aubry total lacks 0.02 point. I know, that's not a big deal but I'm a perfectionist. ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 30, 2011, 04:25:21 PM
I don't know if it's normal, but the Aubry total lacks 0.02 point. I know, that's not a big deal but I'm a perfectionist. ;D

Goddam, each week brings its lil' mistake... All my credibility is gone, now ;D.
No, you're PERFECTLY RIGHT to be perfectionist, I like it.
I'll check tomorrow.
It's again about Aubry hypothesis... I can't help messing up her results :P
(no, more seriously, this is because she wasn't tested in one old poll and if I haven't correctly worked on "boxes" in Excel, there is some mistake somewhere).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 31, 2011, 01:51:57 AM
No, it's just a problem of rounding numbers. Often, it gives us 99.99, but here it's even 99.98.

If you really want to have 100%, Mélenchon should be put at 4.99 (he is at 4.9847) and Villepin at 4.05 (he is at 4.0444). All the others are farer from the superior number.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 31, 2011, 05:16:34 AM
Nah, that's fine. ;)

BTW, I forgot to comment the last PS primary poll, but of course that's great news and I hope this trend will continue. :D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 31, 2011, 05:40:51 AM
Guigou is behind Aubry and a great bunch of strauss-kahnians will support her (all the more if Mosco, supported by Marisol Touraine, is a candidate: that will let none of them behind Hollande).
And Delanoë, who isn't making any noise towards a candidacy (well, as there will be no big fight until July, he won't have any opportunity to appear as a potential "saviour"), will probably rally Aubry .
It's really all against Hollande... Maybe it's his great asset :P.



In other news, Yves Pietrasanta wants to be Génération Ecologie candidate for 2012.
He is back in this less leftist green party, after the Greens have excluded him as he didn't want to resign as VP of Frêche.

I mention it as it's not entirely impossible for him to gather the 500 signatures to be candidate.
The former president of GE, France Gamerre, claimed she gathered 466 in 2007.
Maybe it's less in fact, but Pietrasanta is a bit better known and some DVG mayors may be pushed to sign for him in order to steal votes from Hulot (an aim for the PS).
And maybe the UMP will push some DVD mayors if Borloo appears too strong.

With Dupont-Aignan, Boutin and (probably) Schivardi, he is among those candidates who are on the edge in terms of signatures.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 06, 2011, 02:34:18 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #5 - 6 June 2011

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. There is a generic NPA candidate while we are waiting for Besancenot's replacement.

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; etc).
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)



6 June Aubry sub-tracker:

Arthaud      0,92
NPA      0,96
Mélenchon   5,03
Chevènement   0,42
Aubry      24,75
Hulot      8,68
Bayrou      5,79
Borloo      7,96
Villepin      4,00
Sarkozy      21,84
Dupont-Aignan   0,77
Le Pen      18,87
   



6 June Hollande sub-tracker:

Arthaud      1,02
NPA      0,97
Mélenchon   5,06
Chevènement   0,52
Hollande      26,15
Hulot      8,63
Bayrou      5,41
Borloo      7,41
Villepin      3,78
Sarkozy      21,10
Dupont-Aignan   0,75
Le Pen      19,22




6 June generic socialist sub-tracker:

Arthaud      0,98
NPA      0,97
Mélenchon   5,05
Chevènement   0,48
PS      25,59
Hulot      8,65
Bayrou      5,56
Borloo      7,63
Villepin      3,87
Sarkozy      21,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,76
Le Pen      19,08


With no new poll this week (:(), the small changes are only the effect of time.
What we said last week is still true.

From an outside viewpoint, what strikes most is the very low level of Sarkozy, considering votes for Villepin and Borloo aren't guaranteed at all to come back to him in the 2nd round.
The socialist candidate is clearly ahead, but the left as a whole isn't very high at all.
The "outsiders" are high, either Le Pen or the "centrist" candidates.



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 06, 2011, 12:32:50 PM
No new poll ? How is this possible ? ??? So yeah, this week's changes are only statistical adjustments...


Anyways, here are finally the graphs ! :)

Aubry :
()

Hollande :
()

Every candidate who has at some point reached 5% will be included. I'll update the graph every 4 weeks. I don't think we need a trendline since Fab's method already ensures some regression to the mean.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on June 06, 2011, 12:40:56 PM
How come the Le Pen support is falling?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 06, 2011, 01:03:38 PM
How come the Le Pen support is falling?

A lot of us are asking ourselves that actually. The initial thought was that the DSK affair would have benefitted to her significantly, yet her support is slightly declining. Maybe the simplest explanation is that her support has reached a maximum (keep in mind that the current numbers are extremely high even for France's standards : less than one year ago, her numbers were around 10-15% AFAIK) and now are just stabilizing. The last months have seen a massive surge for Le Pen, to the point where polls showed her ahead or tied with Sarkozy. Massive surges like these rarely entirely hold on when you're so far from the election.

Of course that's not to say "april 21" threat is avoided, far from it. At this point, a lot of things still can happen.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on June 06, 2011, 02:13:12 PM
Some observers also said the DSK affair would only 'solidify' her support rather than boost it.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 06, 2011, 03:51:01 PM
Some observers also said the DSK affair would only 'solidify' her support rather than boost it.

Yes, I was among them from the beginning.
She has already gained what she can gain.
Besancenot's withdrawal gave her 1 or 1.5 point before DSK earthquake, but she has lost them since then.

Basically, she is not really falling, just remaining very high and threatening Sarkozy, though it is more up to him not lose, rather than up to her to climb even higher.

But it seems as if we are now in a more classical lef-right fight, with the socialists having benefited from Besancenot's withdrawal (Mélenchon has barely won 0.5 point) and with Hollande and Aubry being valued higher since DSK is out.

They may be default choices, but the fact that centrist and even rightist voters who opted for DSK now opt for Hollande (and even Aubry a bit) rather than going back to Sarkozy or adding to Borloo prove how deep the resentment against Sarkozy is among centrists and centre-rightists.



Thanks a lot Antonio, these graphs are very clear. :)

But... Villepin would be cool to add ;).
And even the others, though they may be difficult to read.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 11, 2011, 05:41:29 AM
Harris Interactive poll for Marianne, 3-5 June 2011, sample 1449

Hollande 27 / Aubry 25 / Royal 17
Sarkozy 23 / 24 / 26
Le Pen 21 / 22 / 22
Mélenchon 7 / 7 / 8
Borloo 7 / 7 / 9
Bayrou 6 / 6 / 7
Hulot 6 / 6 / 7
Villepin 2 / 2 / 3
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1
Arthaud 0 / 0 / 0
Martin (NPA) 0 / 0 / 0

Sarkozy is on the rise in this new poll, with Villepin and Le Pen down (remember it's Harris: Le Pen was VERY high in their previous polls).

Both Hollande and Aubry are on the rise, with the same gap between them as usual.
Royal is again eliminated in the first round, by a huge margin.

Mélenchon is the clear winner here, with both the LO and NPA candidates at almost 0.

So, as in my previous comments, I'd say that we have a more classical left-right combat, with Le Pen still high and a small advantage for Hollande on Aubry.

For the second round, still a clear defeat for Sarkozy:
Hollande 60-40 Sarkozy
Aubry 58- 42 Sarkozy
Le Pen 37-63 Sarkozy (very high result for Marion "Marine")
Royal 51-49 Sarkozy (theoretical, of course...)

It's interesting to see that Hollande grasps 25% of FN voters (75% for Sarkozy, as Harris doesn't give us those who abstain...) or% of Le Pen voters, 39% of Radicals or 46% of Borloo voters, 84% of MoDem voters or 83% of Bayrou voters, 93% of Green voters or 76% of Hulot voters (where we see that Hulot's appeal is wider).

Aubry is a bit less efficient among centrists and rightists: 32% of Radicals and , 17% of FN voters and 29% of Le Pen voters,
but she is on par among MoDem (82%) and Bayrou (83%) voters,
interestingly, she is high among Greens (94%) but less among Hulot voters (71%).

So, she is quite a good first term candidate (as Hollande's 2 or 3 points margin would probably lessen during a campaign, except if Sarkozy is forced to tilt to the far-right).
But she is clearly a less good candidate for the 2nd round.

The only hope of Sarkozy is here:
taking a psychological advantage, being good at GOTV.
Indeed,
only 13% wish strongly his reelection
15% wish a bit,
17% rather don't wish,
53% don't wish at all !

BUT:
6% think his reelection is certain,
51% think it's likely (probable),
28% unlikely (peu probable),
13% impossible.

Of course, many people could be illiterate enough not to know the difference between probable and possible...
And you don't have a central category with just possible or so-so.
Still, he has an opportunity, provided events are on his side, socialists fight too much between themselves in the autumn, etc...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 11, 2011, 12:11:20 PM
BUT:
6% think his reelection is certain,
51% think it's likely (probable),
28% unlikely (peu probable),
13% impossible.

Of course, many people could be illiterate enough not to know the difference between probable and possible...
And you don't have a central category with just possible or so-so.
Still, he has an opportunity, provided events are on his side, socialists fight too much between themselves in the autumn, etc...

I'm not among those who think Sarkozy is done, but 57% thinking it's more likely than not is outright ridiculous.

Edit : now that I think about it, it might be a very good thing for the left. Those two poll put together show us that french people want him to lose, but fears it will win. That will probably make them even more prone to prevent his victory, for example avoiding vote split in the first round...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on June 11, 2011, 12:32:00 PM
Do they ever bother testing the results of a hypothetical run-off between Hollande or Aubry and Marine LePen if Sarkozy comes in third? Judging from the polls there is more of a chance of that happening than of Sarkozy/LePen run-off. I would also be very curious to see where Sarkozy's voters would go in that scenario.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 11, 2011, 01:59:14 PM
Do they ever bother testing the results of a hypothetical run-off between Hollande or Aubry and Marine LePen if Sarkozy comes in third? Judging from the polls there is more of a chance of that happening than of Sarkozy/LePen run-off. I would also be very curious to see where Sarkozy's voters would go in that scenario.

I think there have been a few polls about it, showing the PS candidate in the 60-70 range (thus, surprisingly similar to Sarkozy).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 11, 2011, 04:17:45 PM
Do they ever bother testing the results of a hypothetical run-off between Hollande or Aubry and Marine LePen if Sarkozy comes in third? Judging from the polls there is more of a chance of that happening than of Sarkozy/LePen run-off. I would also be very curious to see where Sarkozy's voters would go in that scenario.

Do you ever bother to read past posts in this topic ?
There are some of such polls.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 11, 2011, 04:19:10 PM
BUT:
6% think his reelection is certain,
51% think it's likely (probable),
28% unlikely (peu probable),
13% impossible.

Of course, many people could be illiterate enough not to know the difference between probable and possible...
And you don't have a central category with just possible or so-so.
Still, he has an opportunity, provided events are on his side, socialists fight too much between themselves in the autumn, etc...

I'm not among those who think Sarkozy is done, but 57% thinking it's more likely than not is outright ridiculous.

Edit : now that I think about it, it might be a very good thing for the left. Those two poll put together show us that french people want him to lose, but fears it will win. That will probably make them even more prone to prevent his victory, for example avoiding vote split in the first round...

As far as I'm concerned, I think you're right. Too much people want to see his back.

But medias may tell another story.
That might be the only way out for Sarkozy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on June 12, 2011, 12:51:43 AM
Do they ever bother testing the results of a hypothetical run-off between Hollande or Aubry and Marine LePen if Sarkozy comes in third? Judging from the polls there is more of a chance of that happening than of Sarkozy/LePen run-off. I would also be very curious to see where Sarkozy's voters would go in that scenario.

Do you ever bother to read past posts in this topic ?
There are some of such polls.

Is there a reason why you need to be so nasty and condescending in your comments? I asked a simple question - all I needed was an answer.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 12, 2011, 12:52:48 AM
Is there a reason why you need to be so nasty and condescending in your comments?

Yes, there is a reason. Please note the shape of his avatar and the thread in which you are posting.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 12, 2011, 02:38:38 PM
My reputation on this forum is indeed to be nasty and condescendant... ::)
Sorry that it has fallen on you as, usually, I'm not posting like that, just thinking it ;D.

When somebody writes "do they ever bother testing...", it may mean something.
And if you are "curious", yes, you can search in this very thread.

Unfortunately, this thread has been polluted, for one half of its current length, by many posts on DSK. But if you read only the polls I post periodically (with a title easy to see, to notice), you'll be informed.

And if you knew, Phil, how much unFrench I am !!! LOL !
Ask Antonio or Hashemite.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on June 12, 2011, 02:47:22 PM
Better condescending than a ridiculous, blind partisan hack unable to analyse anything without partisan glasses.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 12, 2011, 02:51:12 PM
()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 12, 2011, 03:03:44 PM
And if you knew, Phil, how much unFrench I am !!! LOL !
Ask Antonio or Hashemite.

You're the French equivalent of John Kerry. ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 13, 2011, 03:22:50 AM
Holiday today. So the Big Bad Tracker will be updated tomorrow ;).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 13, 2011, 04:22:56 AM
Meh, for the only time I could update it immediately... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 13, 2011, 10:15:37 AM
IFOP poll for le Journal du Dimanche, 9-10 juin 2011, 923 RVs among a total sample of 1006

Hollande 26 / Aubry 23
Sarkozy 22 / 21.5
Le Pen 21 / 22
Borloo 6 / 6.5
Bayrou 7 / 8
Hulot 6 / 6
Mélenchon 6 / 6.5
Chevènement 1.5 / 1
NPA candidate 0.5 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Villepin 3 / 3.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

The threat is still here for Sarkozy, but also for Aubry.
Aubry has a real problem with centrist voters.

Here also, Mélenchon is slightly on the rise, all the more that Chevènement is tested and... high in a way.
The big centre mess, with Borloo, Bayrou and Hulot is still high and, this time, Bayrou is ahead.
It's really difficult to follow...

Sarkozy was in a better shape in Harris.
Here, he is again in trouble.

The global scene is very fluid.

Tomorrow, I'll be able to include this poll in my tracker ;).
And maybe I'll begin a second round tracker ;D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 13, 2011, 11:30:33 AM
Le Pen again on the rise ? The hope will have lasted for short...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 14, 2011, 03:36:16 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #6 - 13 June 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. There is a generic NPA candidate while we are waiting for Besancenot's replacement (some pollsters give Myriam Martin, but it doesn't change anything, compared to an anonymous "NPA candidate").               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.               

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

13 June Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,67
NPA      0,73
Mélenchon   5,68   
Chevènement   0,41   
Aubry      24,62
Hulot      7,68
Bayrou      6,15
Borloo      7,48
Villepin      3,5
Sarkozy      22,28
Dupont-Aignan   0,77   
Le Pen      20,02

      


      

13 June Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,75   
NPA   0,67   
Mélenchon   5,59   
Chevènement   0,55   
Hollande   26,42   
Hulot   7,71   
Bayrou   5,73   
Borloo   7,08   
Villepin   3,3   
Sarkozy   21,63   
Dupont-Aignan   0,75   
Le Pen   19,82   
      


      

13 June generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,72
NPA      0,69
Mélenchon   5,63   
Chevènement   0,5   
PS      25,70
Hulot      7,7
Bayrou      5,9
Borloo      7,24
Villepin      3,38
Sarkozy      21,89
Dupont-Aignan   0,76   
Le Pen      19,9

      

Big changes this week.      

Le Pen is again on the rise, at 20 everywhere.      
Sarkozy is also on the rise, but adding only a half point doesn't make him safe from Le Pen's threat.      

Aubry is peaking while Hollande is making a very slight progress. Overall, we can say the socialists are stable.   
Mélenchon is again on the rise, but this seems to be only transfers from the unknown candidates from the far left.   

Hulot is at its lowest, like Borloo, in this tracker, whereas the media buzz for both of them is still high.   
We'll have to wait for the Green primary result: if Hulot isn't able to climb above 10 points, it will be hard for him to keep safe through the whole campaign.   
If Borloo hasn't been able to create more interest now, it's doubtable he'll be able to do better in the autumn.   
Bayrou is on the rise again, with no obvious reason.   
The central scene is really incoherent, though the big trend is clear: minus 4 points in 6 weeks, from 25 to 21%.   

Villepin is nearing 3%. He has been dropped by old friends like Goulard. He seems too isolated now, though he has an outrageous access to French medias (is Mélenchon 2 times more present than him on TV ?).   

And let's start a second round tracker, as the pollsters seem to make it more often:   

Aubry   57,75
Sarkozy   42,25

Hollande   59,97
Sarkozy   40,03


No big surprise here.   
Though Sarkozy is a bit less down than some weeks ago, though he is a big campaigner, though the socialists aren't able to reach 30% in the first round, though the overall support for the left isn't amazing,   
Sarkozy has really a huge mountain to climb.   
The anti-Sarkozy feeling is so deep that I really don't believ he could make it.   
It'll be fun in one year to see the result ;D.   


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 14, 2011, 09:00:49 AM
IFOP poll for France-Soir, 1-10 June 2011, 502 socialists among 1028 leftists among a total sample of 2009

among self-defined leftists / among self-defined socialists
Hollande 36 / 44
Aubry 35 / 36

Royal 14 / 10
Montebourg 6 / 5
Valls 4 / 3
another one 0 / 0
none of them 4 / 2
don't know 1 / 1

second round:
Hollande 52 (-1) / 56 (=)
Aubry 48 (+1) / 44 (=)

Hollande is still ahead, Aubry is coming back: Reuters has a good title here.

second round: Hollande / Aubry
among Left Front voters: 58 / 42 (amazing ! an effect of past premiership of Hollande or an effect of tiny samples ?)
among Greens: 50 / 50 (amazing ! Aubry is on par with Hollande ! probably an effect of nuclear policy)
among far-left voters: 38 / 62 (pretty logical)
among those who voted Besancenot in 2007: 52 / 48 (well... tiny sample, I guess)
among the leftists who voted Bayrou in 2007: 62 / 38 (logical and the strength of Hollande)
among those who voted Royal in 2007: 53 / 47
among the leftists who voted Sarkozy in 2007: 57 / 43

So, the political landscape is quite clear now.
Even if Moscovici is candidate (in a titanesque fight against Valls and Montebourg ;)), there will be a second round Hollande-Aubry and a rather balanced one.

So, we may expect a big bloody fight,
with Bartolone, Hamon, Cambadélis, Assouline cheating for Aubry, as they did in 2008 for Aubry or Royal (;)),
with the small staff of Hollande using its leverage on the medias of every kind.

Nothing is sure but, with July-August-September to fight, plus a polarizing second round, the PS may well be in tatters in October.

As far as I'm concerned, I don't believe in this scenario, though. Of course, it won't be the great love, but I think they will be able not to cross a certain line.
Royal is the mad one and she will first fight Hollande, making him a victim, which may be good for him.
And Royal won't be welcomed by Aubry as she is not an asset, so Royal's power of nuisance will be very much lowered.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 14, 2011, 02:58:37 PM
Updated. Weird and mostly worrying trends, with Sarko and Le Pen higher... LOL Bayrou. Well, at least the far-lefties fall into total irrelevancy and the sovereignist remain there.

I think it's a bit too early for a second round tracker, personally I'd wait for September before making these conjectures. But that'll still be funny to follow. :)

Any theory about why in the world the NPA and Arthaud scores are flipped when you switch Aubry with Hollande ? ??? Crazy statistical issues are crazy.

Oh, also. Aubry isn't peaking, she has peaked last week by your tracker. You can never say a candidate is peaking, because once you can see the peak it means it has already started to decrease. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 14, 2011, 03:56:43 PM
My English is quite bad, you know ;).
Yeah, no "-ing" for the verb "to peak" ;D.

As for the 2nd round, it's indeed too early, but it'll be fun to go back to June when we know the name of the socialist !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 16, 2011, 04:59:27 PM
Frédéric Nihous is candidate again, for Chasse Pêche Nature Traditions.

I hope he will be tested by pollsters as he can steal some votes to Le Pen and to Sarkozy.
Dupont-Aignan is already too low and has supporters more upscale socially.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 17, 2011, 05:08:35 AM
Frédéric Nihous is candidate again, for Chasse Pêche Nature Traditions.

That pathetic outfit is still alive ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 17, 2011, 07:26:09 AM
Frédéric Nihous is candidate again, for Chasse Pêche Nature Traditions.

That pathetic outfit is still alive ?

Expect some reaction from Hash ;D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on June 17, 2011, 08:46:17 AM
Frédéric Nihous is candidate again, for Chasse Pêche Nature Traditions.

I have a candidate to vote for, finally.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 17, 2011, 03:50:41 PM
Opinionway poll for Le Figaro-TF1-LCI, 15-17 June 2011, sample 1334 leftists among a total sample of 3012

without / with Moscovici
Hollande 43 / 42
Aubry 33 / 31
Royal 13 / 13
Montebourg 7 / 7
Valls 4/ 4
Moscovici - / 3

Moscovici's possible candidacy has no real impact...

Hollande is down and Aubry up with this pollster (-6 and +6), but Opinionway was probably overestimating Hollande.
Maybe they are still overestimating him, as Aubry has now a positive buzz in the medias... She is the "new" thing of the moment (how ironic when you see and know her ;))

(and how ironic to see that Borloo and Aubry are the big question marks of the moment: the 2 alcohol-addicts together ;D)

It will really be a very balanced and contested primary.
A second round is very, very likely if none of the 2 big guns drops before the election day.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 17, 2011, 03:55:43 PM
Maybe they are still overestimating him, as Aubry has now a positive buzz in the medias... She is the "new" thing of the moment (how ironic when you see and know her ;))

It's not like Hollande is newer...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 17, 2011, 04:27:24 PM
Maybe they are still overestimating him, as Aubry has now a positive buzz in the medias... She is the "new" thing of the moment (how ironic when you see and know her ;))

It's not like Hollande is newer...
:P

Well, he has recently reverted to his humourous natural trend: I'm not sure it's a very good thing, especially if there is a schizophrenic difference between rallies (the "kewl" guy) and TV interviews (the boring president-in-waiting).

As I've always said, if DSK wasn't candidate, Aubry would be so central inside the PS that she would become unbeatable.
You don't hear Hamon and Emmanuelli any longer...
Hollande will be bombed every second from late August:
from the left of the party,
from Delanoë,
from so-called left strauss-kahnians,
from Fabius,
from Royal,
from aubryst women.

Of course, he will have the same leverage as against DSK: the isolated outsider against the "machine".
After all, Royal won massively in 2006 with the same tactics.

I think Hollande must keep on talking as if he is already the candidate and ignore Aubry.
And must let all the Aubry followers, who won't be able to shut up (Fabius, Hamon, Emmanuelli, Bartolone, Assouline, Cambadélis soon): with all these specialists of personal attacks, it'll be easy to be a "victim".

Another interesting question is whether a Hulot victory may be a precedent for a Hollande victory: I mean, someone who isn't exactly in the "historical" line of the party but who may be more efficient electorally against Sarkozy and Le Pen.
It will be fascinating to see all these primaries.

It would have been so fun to have Sarkozy, Borloo, Juppé, Villepin, Boutin competing inside the UMP ;D :P (Allez Alain !)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 17, 2011, 08:09:23 PM
I did a little research on these other "center - right" candidates. I didn't think I'd actually cheer for Sarkozy but it seems inevitable...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 18, 2011, 08:31:09 PM
Are Hollande, Aubry, and Royal the only PS candidates?  Could Bertrand Delanoë run? 


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 19, 2011, 04:13:56 AM
Are Hollande, Aubry, and Royal the only PS candidates?  Could Bertrand Delanoë run? 

Only Hollande and Aubry have a shot at winning the PS primary. Medias act as if Royal had one too, but they don't even bother for the other guys.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 19, 2011, 03:01:13 PM
Are Hollande, Aubry, and Royal the only PS candidates?  Could Bertrand Delanoë run? 

Only Hollande and Aubry have a shot at winning the PS primary. Medias act as if Royal had one too, but they don't even bother for the other guys.

Manuel Valls is a candidate and Arnaud Montebourg too.

Delanoë is now clearly behind Aubry. I guess he'd be glad to become his Prime minister in 2012...

Pierre Moscovici is hesitating, but he can't do more than 5% in the best of case.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 20, 2011, 02:58:15 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #7 - 20 June 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. There is a generic NPA candidate while we are waiting for Besancenot's replacement (some pollsters give Myriam Martin, but it doesn't change anything, compared to an anonymous "NPA candidate").               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.               

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

20 June Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,64
NPA      0,71
Mélenchon   5,78
Chevènement   0,39
Aubry      24,63
Hulot      7,53
Bayrou      6,18
Borloo      7,37
Villepin      3,43
Sarkozy      22,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,76
Le Pen      20,19


      


      

20 June Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,72
NPA      0,64
Mélenchon   5,66
Chevènement   0,53
Hollande      26,54
Hulot      7,54
Bayrou      5,75
Borloo      7,00
Villepin      3,22
Sarkozy      21,74
Dupont-Aignan   0,75
Le Pen      19,91
   
      


      

20 June generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,69
NPA      0,67
Mélenchon   5,71
Chevènement   0,48
PS      25,77
Hulot      7,53
Bayrou      5,92
Borloo      7,15
Villepin      3,30
Sarkozy      22,00
Dupont-Aignan   0,75
Le Pen      20,02

      

No new poll this week.      

The NPA candidate, Hulot, Borloo and Villepin are at their lowest since the beginning of this tracker.
The socialists, Mélenchon and Sarkozy are at their highest.
Le Pen and Bayrou are on the rise again.

It's a sort of a standby now, with the Green primary at work and with Aubry declaring only in 2 or 3 weeks.

The Greek crisis may test the socialists, with Aubry being torned between "responsability" and her leftist support and with Hollande being too "reasonable".

But, knowing France and French people, the reflex will be to seek for more protection and this crisis may well be worse for Sarkozy than for anyone else, as he isn't seen as "protecting" (and nobody cares about international summits and French world influence...).   

As for the second round tracker, no real change:   

Aubry   57,76
Sarkozy   42,24

Hollande   59,98
Sarkozy   40,02




Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 20, 2011, 08:10:16 AM
ViaVoice poll for Libération, 16-18 June 2011, sample 1005

Whom would you prefer as Green candidate ?

among the whole sample:
Hulot 52 / Joly 26 / don't know 22

among the 133 self-declared Greens:
Hulot 63 / Joly 28 / don't know 9

133 is tiny, but it's big among a total French "population" of 1005...

It will probably result in a narrower margin, but Hulot seems to be the favourite.



If Hash or Antonio or anyone else wants to make a map of the internal vote of the PCF for their presidential candidate, I've got the results by department.

Mélenchon: 59.12
Chassaigne: 36.82
Dang Tran: 4.07

Dang Tran won only in Haute-Saône, not exactly a big PCF federation.

Chassaigne won in Puy-de-Dôme (over 80 obviously), Allier, Cantal, Ardennes, Mayenne (over 70), Lozère, Meurthe-et-Moselle, Pas-de-Calais, Haute-Marne, Marne, Maine-et-Loire, Orne, Charente-Maritime, Var (over 60), Nord, Somme, Seine-Maritime, Eure, Saône-et-Loire, Rhône, Haute-Garonne (over or near 50), Val-de-Marne (51 against 47)

So he gained old strongholds and some federations with over 1000 ballots cast (Seine-Maritime, Val-de-Marne, Nord, Pas-de-Calais, Rhône, Haute-Garonne),
but Mélenchon was high everywhere and he won big in the South-West and the South-East and in Ile-de-France, with the notable exception of Val-de-Marne. He also won in the small federations all over the centre-west, the centre-east, the north-west.

For Mélenchon, big federations with over 1000 ballots: Bouches-du-Rhône (78), Dordogne (81), Hérault (62), Paris (61), Hauts-de-Seine (65) and of course Seine-Saint-Denis (78).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 21, 2011, 01:07:07 PM
No new poll, again ? :(

These idiots started polling the race 3 years before and now they aren't even able to give us a damn poll per week ! >:(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on June 21, 2011, 01:14:15 PM
If the Greens go with Hulot - will their campaign revolve around a Jacques Tati retrospective with screenings of Le Vacance de M. Hulot across France to promote their candidate?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on June 22, 2011, 02:49:01 AM
No new poll, again ? :(

These idiots started polling the race 3 years before and now they aren't even able to give us a damn poll per week ! >:(

Don't worry, there will be one from CSA and one from Ipsos by the end of the week.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 22, 2011, 05:45:28 AM
Christine Boutin is officially a candidate.

It seems as if she will really try to (I've doubted it for long, but well, she is looking for the 500 signatures now).

Nihous will probably have his signatures (1.15% in 2007).
It's not at all guaranteed for Dupont-Aignan (he didn't succeed in gathering the signatures in 2007) and even for Boutin (she was a candidate in 2002: 1.19%).

Anyway, bad news for Sarkozy... as he is far from safe, due to Le Pen remaining very high despite the fact the medias have had other priorities for some weeks.

As for me, if there is a risk Sarkozy isn't in the 2nd round AND if Aubry is the PS candidate, I'll of course cast a "vote utile" for Sarkozy.
If there is no risk at all AND if Hollande is the PS candidate, of course, I'll support Boutin.
If there is a risk AND if Hollande is the PS candidate, well, that remains to be thought about... ;) In this case, Sarkozy is doomed, so why not voting for your ideas ? ;D
If there is no risk at all AND if Aubry is the PS candidate, well, that remains to be thought about... ;) In this case, Sarkozy needs to have the greatest momentum to beat the old crap ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 22, 2011, 05:53:22 AM
Philippe Poutou, former NPA leader in Aquitaine in 2010 regional elections (2.52%) and a member of CGT at Ford factory near Bordeaux, may well be the NPA candidate for 2012.
He is 44 years old but looks more and not very rigorous.

I don't think it will change anything for the NPA: without Besancenot, they will be sidelined.

Of course, there can be jokes about "poutou", a phonetic word for kiss or cuddle, but in a very lax, popular, spoken language ;D.
I doubt it will be enough to be above 1.5% !!!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on June 22, 2011, 10:20:10 AM
No new poll, again ? :(

These idiots started polling the race 3 years before and now they aren't even able to give us a damn poll per week ! >:(

Don't worry, there will be one from CSA and one from Ipsos by the end of the week.

Seems I was right.

A new poll made by Ipsos (June 18-19th, sample 965 registered voters):

No second rounds tested.


With Hollande

Arthaud 1,5 % (-0,5)
NPA candidate 0,5 % (=)
Mélenchon 7 % (+3)
Hollande 32 % (+4)
Hulot 7,5 % (-3,5)
Bayrou 5 % (=)
Borloo 7 % (-2)
Villepin 3 % (=)
Sarkozy 19 % (=)
Dupont Aignan 0,5 % (=)
Le Pen 17 % (=)

Turnout : 89 %


With Aubry 

Arthaud 1 % (=)
NPA candidate 0,5 % (=)
Mélenchon 7 % (+3)
Aubry 30 % (+3)
Hulot 7 % (-4)
Bayrou 5 % (=)
Borloo 8 % (=)
Villepin 4 % (=)
Sarkozy 19 % (-2)
Dupont Aignan 0,5 % (=)
Le Pen 18 % (+1)

Turnout : 88 %


With Royal 

Arthaud 2 % (=)
NPA candidate 1 % (+ 0,5)
Mélenchon 9,5 % (+3,5)
Royal 19 % (+3)
Hulot 8,5 % (-4,5)
Bayrou 7 % (=)
Borloo 11% (-1)
Villepin 4,5 % (-1,5)
Sarkozy 19 % (=)
Dupont Aignan 0,5 % (=)
Le Pen 18 % (=)

Turnout : 86 %



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 22, 2011, 10:48:33 AM
Those numbers seem quite far off compared with other ones (socialists in the 30s, really ?).

Also, looks like we have two more jokes in the race...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 22, 2011, 12:24:37 PM
Where is it published ?
I don't see it. Or have you got it from someone inside IPSOS ?

It clearly seems as an outlier (for the moment...).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on June 22, 2011, 05:19:33 PM
Where is it published ?
I don't see it. Or have you got it from someone inside IPSOS ?

Well, it was first supposed to be published today, but it will be tomorrow. And I clearly think these DSK numbers for Hollande and Aubry will be the standards in the next months polls: people don't really vote for a socialist candidate, but mainly against Sarkozy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 23, 2011, 03:25:38 AM
Where is it published ?
I don't see it. Or have you got it from someone inside IPSOS ?

Well, it was first supposed to be published today, but it will be tomorrow. And I clearly think these DSK numbers for Hollande and Aubry will be the standards in the next months polls: people don't really vote for a socialist candidate, but mainly against Sarkozy.

Sure, but above 30%, it's really surprising.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 23, 2011, 03:50:02 AM
CSA poll for 20 Minutes - RMC - BFM TV, 20-21 June, 825 RVs among a total sample of 1004

PS primaries: how likely is it that you vote ?
Certainly: 16% (-1)
Likely: 18% (-2)
Likely not: 18% (-1)
Certainly not: 45% (+4)

Among those who will likely or certainly vote / among socialists likely or certain to vote (don't know how tiny is this latter group...):

Hollande 34 / 41
Aubry 35 / 37
Royal 13 / 9
Montebourg 4 / 4
Moscovici 3 / 5
Valls 3 / 4
none of them 4 / 0
don't know 4 / 0

Aubry is really surging here, though it's in comparison with an old poll from CSA where Royal was unrealistically high.
Maybe she is surging too early, as her candidacy declaration won't be a surprise any longer.
But it's clear she is closing the gap.

It will be very balanced and polarized: wonderful ! Blood inside the PS ! ;)

For the second round:
Hollande 51 / 57
Aubry 42 / 39
don't know 7 / 4
Among socialists, Hollande is strong, but it's in the 2nd round that Aubry has still a margin of progress. A narrower margin is likely (though maybe not like in the 2008 Reims Congress ;)).

And to be complete and LOL a bit:
Hollande 69 / 82
Royal 23 / 16
don't know 8 / 2

Aubry 68 / 77
Royal 22 / 21
don't know 10 / 2

Who is the most able to beat Sarkozy ?
Hollande 52 / 61
Aubry 29 / 29
Royal 11 / 5
don't know 8 / 5
This is where Aubry is the weakest. And it will of course be a very important criterion.

Who is the closest to your ideas and values ?
Aubry 41 / 39
Hollande 34 / 44
Royal 14 / 11
don(t know 11 / 6
Does this mean that, among those who intend to vote, there are more leftists than centre-leftists ?

What's your forecast winner ?
Hollande 44 / 50
Aubry 30 / 36
Royal 9 / 8
Valls 2 / 2
Montebourg 1 / 0
Moscovici 1 / 0
Again, Aubry has to work on this. But with all the big guns behind her, that's not impossible.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 23, 2011, 04:00:57 AM
CSA poll for 20 Minutes - RMC - BFM TV, 20-21 June, 825 RVs among a total sample of 1004

Do you forecast Sarkozy's reelection ?

Certainly not 33 (+1)
Likely not 33 (-7)
Likely 21 (+4)
Certainly 9 (+3)

Certainly or likely: 60 among rightists (+18), 16 among leftists (+6)

Sarkozy has clearly energized his camp.
But his camp is so diminished that it isn't enough. Far from it.

Hollande 27 / Aubry 23 / Royal 15
Sarkozy 23 / 23 / 24
Le Pen 16 / 16 / 16
Borloo 9 / 10 / 10.5
Hulot 7 / 7.5 / 9
Bayrou 5 / 7 / 8
Villepin 3 / 3 / 4
Mélenchon 7 / 7 / 10
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1
NPA 1.5 / 2 / 2
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

Hollande 27 / Aubry 25.5 / Royal 17
Sarkozy 23 / 23 / 24

Le Pen 16 / 16 / 16
Borloo 10 / 11 / 13
Joly 4 / 4 / 5
Bayrou 7 / 6 / 9
Villepin 3 / 4 / 4
Mélenchon 7 / 7 / 8.5
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1
NPA 1.5 / 2 / 2
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

So... Joly is clearly a weaker candidate for the Greens (remember that under 5%, you don't "make" money from the State...).
She loses votes in favour of the PS candidate and of Borloo.

Borloo is higher than in other polls and Bayrou a bit lower. Again, only one conclusion: the centrist scene is very fluid.
Villepin is definitely down.

Mélenchon is on the rise, it's confirmed, as he is no longer stuck to the 5% threshold.

Apart from Royal (CSA still bhothers to test her... ROFL), the PS candidate makes it to the ssecond round, though Hollande more easily than Aubry.
In this poll, Sarkozy seems far safer than in the IPSOS one, with Le Pen clearly down.

Funny to see that IPSOS seems almost as the CSA of 2007...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 23, 2011, 12:39:36 PM
2% forecast Valls winning the primary, and 9% Royal ? LOL.

Forecasts for Presidential elections seem less ridiculous than in the previous poll.



Also, I disagree with the primary voters on who is the most able to defeat Sarkozy. I think Hollande's popularity is far less solid than it seems IMO. That might just me my dislike for Hollande combined with paranoia, but let's see.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on June 25, 2011, 07:50:12 PM
     Rightists can be explained by him energizing his base, but why is it that leftists are more likely to forecast a Sarkozy victory now too? That seems highly counter-intuitive, what with the PS hopefuls gaining in the polls.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 26, 2011, 04:08:30 AM
     Rightists can be explained by him energizing his base, but why is it that leftists are more likely to forecast a Sarkozy victory now too? That seems highly counter-intuitive, what with the PS hopefuls gaining in the polls.

Most of this probably comes from the fear of seeing the primaries turn into a bitter fight that will end up fragilizing the nominee whoever he/she is (see the Reims Congress (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reims_Congress) for example).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on June 26, 2011, 08:20:58 AM
     Rightists can be explained by him energizing his base, but why is it that leftists are more likely to forecast a Sarkozy victory now too? That seems highly counter-intuitive, what with the PS hopefuls gaining in the polls.

Leftists know perfectly well the PS' great skills at self-sabotage. And maybe there's a bit of pessimism thrown in.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 27, 2011, 03:13:17 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #8 - 27 June 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. Pollsters haven't tested Boutin and Nihous yet, but they'll probably be included soon.               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.               

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

27 June Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,73
NPA      0,88
Mélenchon   6,31
Chevènement   0,24
Aubry      25,28
Hulot      7,26
Bayrou      6,17
Borloo      7,84
Villepin      3,37
Sarkozy      22,01
Dupont-Aignan   0,66
Le Pen      19,25
      


      

27 June Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,86
NPA      0,73
Mélenchon   6,21
Chevènement   0,34
Hollande      27,68
Hulot      7,25
Bayrou      5,53
Borloo      7,27
Villepin      3,06
Sarkozy      21,60
Dupont-Aignan   0,66
Le Pen      18,81   
      


      

27 June generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,81
NPA      0,79
Mélenchon   6,25
Chevènement   0,30
PS      26,72
Hulot      7,25
Bayrou      5,78
Borloo      7,50
Villepin      3,18
Sarkozy      21,76
Dupont-Aignan   0,66
Le Pen      18,99
      

The socialists and Mélenchon are at their highest, with quite big gains in this tracker.
Hollande and Aubry are at 1981-Mitterrandesque scores.
Hollande is still above Aubry, but both of them are now at big first round levels considering presidential elections since 1995.

Panzergirl is at her lowest against Hollande.
Sarkozy, which is a bit down again, remains safe as Marion "Marine" Le Pen is lower too.

Dupont-Aignan and Villepin are at their lowest. It will be interesting to see if Boutin and Nihous will fasten this decrease or not (Nihous for NDA, Boutin for both NDA and Villepin).

I guess the fact that Poutou is now NPA's official candidate won't change anything in the far-left ;D. With Chevènement fading away and increasingly uncertain to have his 500 signatures, Mélenchon will be the only enemy of the socialists on their left.

And as Hulot doesn't seem to steal many votes from the socialists (and will have a huge internal pressure not to tilt too much to the centre...), all seems to be well on the left for the socialists.
Their only problem will only be themselves ;D.
But I really doubt it will be enough as a game-changer to make Sarkozy win.



As for the second round tracker, no change:   

Aubry   57,79
Sarkozy   42,21

Hollande   59,98
Sarkozy   40,02



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on June 27, 2011, 05:57:28 AM
A new Ifop poll (June 21-23rd, sample 937 registered voters):

No real changes since the last wave, but it's interesting to see Joly and Hulot are exactly at the same level, contrary to the above CSA poll. 


With Hollande / Joly

Arthaud 0,5 %
NPA candidate 0,5 %
Mélenchon 7 %
Chevènement 1 %
Hollande 26 %
Joly 6,5 %
Bayrou 6 %
Borloo 7,5 %
Villepin 3 %
Sarkozy 21 %
Dupont Aignan 0,5 %
Le Pen 20,5 % 


With Hollande / Hulot

Arthaud 0,5 % (=)
NPA candidate 0,5 % (=)
Mélenchon 6,5 % (+0,5)
Chevènement 1,5 % (=)
Hollande 26,5 %  (+0,5)
Hulot 6,5 % (+0,5)
Bayrou 6 % (-1)
Borloo 7 % (+1)
Villepin 3 % (=)
Sarkozy 21 % (-1)
Dupont Aignan 0 % (-0,5)
Le Pen 21 % (=)



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 27, 2011, 07:04:45 AM
IFOP poll for France-Soir, 16-24 June 2011, sample 470 self-declared socialists among 971 self-declared leftists

among leftist / among socialists
Hollande 37 / 43
Aubry 34 / 34
Royal 13 / 11
Valls 5 / 4
Montebourg 4 / 3
another one 1 / 1
none of them 5 / 3
don't know 1 / 1

Hollande 53 (+1) / 58 (+2)
Aubry 47 (-1) / 42 (-2)

The situation is roughly stabilized.
Hollande is of course the current favourite, being stronger among socialists, among older people and among middle-classes and (oh surprise) lower classes (except unemployed people).
Aubry has a majority only among women, less than 35 years old, CSP+ (;D), unemployed people.
That is to say Hollande is stronger among people likely to cast REALLY a ballot in the end...

But, of course, the race starts only tomorrow :P.

If Hollande is able not to slide too much behind Aubry (as she will surge for the next 3 weeks) and to appear quite strong in September, he may be able to overcome her during the hard part of the fight.

Reasonably, she should win, with all the apparatus behind her.
And, on the other hand, the usual rebellious behaviour may harm her more than anticipated.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 27, 2011, 08:32:41 AM
BTW, math, we are all glad to have polls very early, but isn't there a problem to publish them here while they are under embargo, as it seems the case with the recent IPSOS and IFOP ones ?

Well, I know, this website is quite confidential, all the more in France :P ;)
And it's an American website, so, French laws doesn't apply.
Maybe it's more a business problem than a legal one and, well, it's up to you, as you are an insider, you knwo better ;D.

As Dave isn't here very often (and doesn't bother to read obscure threads ;)), I wondered just because I know he had already some problems for some stuff unduly published here.



As for the IFOP national poll, it confirms that IPSOS was rather an outlier, though Sarkozy isn't very high and the socialists and Mélenchon are in good shape.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 27, 2011, 10:11:23 AM
Back and forth, really... I don't imagine one second that Aubry and Hollande will be over 30%, that just can't happen. But that's still quite encouraging. :)

I'll update my graphs next week. ;)


BTW, was reading an article on Le Monde about Boutin and those ******** journalists call her a "candidate of the centre"... Yeah, she's so moderate... ::) ROFL.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 27, 2011, 04:44:05 PM
She is very social.
And very conservative on values of course.

No, she is obviously not a centrist, even when the centre was slightly "christian"... in the French meaning of the word, honestly, that doesn't say much, just you're from the left... JOC, JAC, JEC and many parts of the MRP.
You know the joke from... Malraux ? I don't remember, but it goes like this:
"Who will be the last communist in France ?
- A Breton priest."

Well, Boutin herself speaks a lot about René Schuman. She is probably very close to him. As the society has evolved since 1950, of course, she is more on the right than Schuman was. But that's coherent, he was a christian-democrat, a real one, and he was quite traditional and conservative too.

Anyway, everybody is centrist nowadays :P.
After Villepin, why not Boutin, now ?
The French medias are really awful (look, they are saying that Aubry is almost winning against Hollande ;D...)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on June 27, 2011, 05:47:09 PM
Back and forth, really... I don't imagine one second that Aubry and Hollande will be over 30%, that just can't happen. But that's still quite encouraging. :)

I'll update my graphs next week. ;)


BTW, was reading an article on Le Monde about Boutin and those ******** journalists call her a "candidate of the centre"... Yeah, she's so moderate... ::) ROFL.

The media seems to think that "centrists" are all those who aren't UMP, PS, PCF or FN.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 28, 2011, 03:40:38 AM
She is very social.
And very conservative on values of course.

No, she is obviously not a centrist, even when the centre was slightly "christian"... in the French meaning of the word, honestly, that doesn't say much, just you're from the left... JOC, JAC, JEC and many parts of the MRP.
You know the joke from... Malraux ? I don't remember, but it goes like this:
"Who will be the last communist in France ?
- A Breton priest."

Well, Boutin herself speaks a lot about René Schuman. She is probably very close to him. As the society has evolved since 1950, of course, she is more on the right than Schuman was. But that's coherent, he was a christian-democrat, a real one, and he was quite traditional and conservative too.

Anyway, everybody is centrist nowadays :P.
After Villepin, why not Boutin, now ?
The French medias are really awful (look, they are saying that Aubry is almost winning against Hollande ;D...)

She seems to be far more concerned about gay marriage and abortion than about the fate of unemployeds or the destruction of public services, though. At least original Christian Democrats helped drafting the CNR program... But yeah, if Villepin is a "centrist" too, why not Boutin after all. ::)

I guess it's Robert Schuman you're refering to ? ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on June 28, 2011, 04:09:21 AM
BTW, math, we are all glad to have polls very early, but isn't there a problem to publish them here while they are under embargo, as it seems the case with the recent IPSOS and IFOP ones ?

Well, I know, this website is quite confidential, all the more in France :P ;)
And it's an American website, so, French laws doesn't apply.
Maybe it's more a business problem than a legal one and, well, it's up to you, as you are an insider, you knwo better ;D.

As Dave isn't here very often (and doesn't bother to read obscure threads ;)), I wondered just because I know he had already some problems for some stuff unduly published here.

Well, you're right concerning the IPSOS poll, I should have been more cautious even if they changed the due date at the last minute. But I'm sure this Ifop survey was not under embargo when I posted it, even if I still cannot find any mention of it on the web (as you I guess). Bad marketing service probably... All these game changer polls drive me wild ;D

Anyway, everybody is centrist nowadays :P.
After Villepin, why not Boutin, now ?
The French medias are really awful.

It's not that laughable if they're talking about the potential voters of these candidates instead of their own political positions IMO. When the pollsters ask interviewees to place themselves on a left-right scale, Borloo, Villepin and Hulot or Joly supporters are disproportionately on the central position.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 28, 2011, 06:32:49 AM
She is very social.
And very conservative on values of course.

No, she is obviously not a centrist, even when the centre was slightly "christian"... in the French meaning of the word, honestly, that doesn't say much, just you're from the left... JOC, JAC, JEC and many parts of the MRP.
You know the joke from... Malraux ? I don't remember, but it goes like this:
"Who will be the last communist in France ?
- A Breton priest."

Well, Boutin herself speaks a lot about René Schuman. She is probably very close to him. As the society has evolved since 1950, of course, she is more on the right than Schuman was. But that's coherent, he was a christian-democrat, a real one, and he was quite traditional and conservative too.

Anyway, everybody is centrist nowadays :P.
After Villepin, why not Boutin, now ?
The French medias are really awful (look, they are saying that Aubry is almost winning against Hollande ;D...)

She seems to be far more concerned about gay marriage and abortion than about the fate of unemployeds or the destruction of public services, though. At least original Christian Democrats helped drafting the CNR program... But yeah, if Villepin is a "centrist" too, why not Boutin after all. ::)

I guess it's Robert Schuman you're refering to ? ;)

Oh God, if it were a French forum, this was directly to the Goldmine ! ;D

I'm really tired these days.
On Saturday, I put salt in my yogurt.
And yesterday, I was about to put sugar on my meat...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 28, 2011, 07:55:59 AM
I'm really tired these days.
On Saturday, I put salt in my yogurt.
And yesterday, I was about to put sugar on my meat...

LOL ;D

Oh c'mon, it's not like most French people even remember who was this Schuman guy. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 28, 2011, 09:51:37 AM
I'm really tired these days.
On Saturday, I put salt in my yogurt.
And yesterday, I was about to put sugar on my meat...

LOL ;D

Oh c'mon, it's not like most French people even remember who was this Schuman guy. :P

For me, it's as important as sugar and salt !!!! ;D

Of course, till I don't put pieces of Schuman in my yogurt, all is well, I guess :D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 28, 2011, 11:10:20 AM
BREAKING in the Green primary:

Eva Joly is "ahead" (no number for the moment) in "paper" votes (2000 counted out of around 10000; 15000 votes are electronic ones).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on June 28, 2011, 12:05:28 PM
BREAKING in the Green primary:

Eva Joly is "ahead" (no number for the moment) in "paper" votes (2000 counted out of around 10000; 15000 votes are electronic ones).

They say 55% for Joly and only 35% for Hulot (still with 2000 ballots), which is really cool IMO.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on June 28, 2011, 01:39:15 PM
I'm really tired these days.
On Saturday, I put salt in my yogurt.
And yesterday, I was about to put sugar on my meat...

LOL ;D

Oh c'mon, it's not like most French people even remember who was this Schuman guy. :P

Except of course those living near the rather prominent Schuman Square in Brussels.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 28, 2011, 03:28:04 PM
BREAKING in the Green primary:

Eva Joly is "ahead" (no number for the moment) in "paper" votes (2000 counted out of around 10000; 15000 votes are electronic ones).

They say 55% for Joly and only 35% for Hulot (still with 2000 ballots), which is really cool IMO.

Now 50-30, with 6000 votes counted, out of 10000 "paper" ones.
I'm not even sure that Internet votes will be better for Hulot (they should, but "old" Greens are really against this guy).

If it's Joly, it's another good news for socialists.
She'll self-destruct the Greens and won't steal many votes. For the negotiations for seats in parliamentarian elections, this is fine for the PS...
And she'll fire at Sarkozy all the time.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 28, 2011, 04:07:28 PM
Hulot is losing ? Really ? That's so awesome... and beyond any expectation ! :D

Of course there remains electronic votes, and seeing the rumours there have been about them, I fear it could end up badly.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on June 28, 2011, 06:23:55 PM
I guess M. Hulot will be going on a holiday!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 29, 2011, 02:26:45 AM
Any news about how the election is going ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on June 29, 2011, 03:50:58 AM
If it's Joly, it's another good news for socialists.
She'll self-destruct the Greens and won't steal many votes. For the negotiations for seats in parliamentarian elections, this is fine for the PS...
And she'll fire at Sarkozy all the time.

I believe her more ethical than economic agenda will made her very capable to attract all these young urban professional voters who contributed to the successes of EELV in the last European, regional and cantonal elections (see Nantes, Toulouse, Rennes, Lyon, Paris, Grenoble, Angers, Bordeaux, Caen during the cantonal). Sure this is not a very numerous group, but at the end of the day this is one that will more surely solidify around EELV than all those very diverse potential Hulot voters who will go back to where they came from after he lost/withdraw.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 29, 2011, 07:28:50 AM
If it's Joly, it's another good news for socialists.
She'll self-destruct the Greens and won't steal many votes. For the negotiations for seats in parliamentarian elections, this is fine for the PS...
And she'll fire at Sarkozy all the time.

I believe her more ethical than economic agenda will made her very capable to attract all these young urban professional voters who contributed to the successes of EELV in the last European, regional and cantonal elections (see Nantes, Toulouse, Rennes, Lyon, Paris, Grenoble, Angers, Bordeaux, Caen during the cantonal). Sure this is not a very numerous group, but at the end of the day this is one that will more surely solidify around EELV than all those very diverse potential Hulot voters who will go back to where they came from after he lost/withdraw.

You're right, in the long term, the Greens should prefer candidates like Joly.
But, well, she has a bad image and when she speak, she will scare many other potential voters.
And there is a real stake for EE-LV: under 5%, no public money !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 29, 2011, 08:28:34 AM
Apparently we'll get the e-voting results by 17h CEST. Barring a fraud of epic proportions (but I wouldn't entirely exclude it) Joly is headed to win, or at least to go to the runoff in a very good situation.

Surprises like this one make me gain back some trust in humanity. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on June 29, 2011, 10:04:05 AM
Eva Joly : 49,75%
Nicolas Hulot : 40,22%
Henri Stoll : 5,02%
Stéphane Lhomme : 4,64%

She missed it by 60 votes...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 29, 2011, 10:21:55 AM
What if some RVs who didn't vote eventually cast a ballott for the 2nd round ?

I mean, she'll win, that's quite sure, but, after all, nothing is entirely lost for Hulot.

And, of course, there is the possibility that he'll be candidate outside EE-LV, destroying himself, but also EE-LV as a whole.

Anyway, that's probably the best result the socialists could expect ;D: Hulot down, but Joly forced to a second round, no big majority, a breat disappointment for Hulot, who has quitted his "business" and who may now look forward to becoming a candidate of his own.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 29, 2011, 10:39:26 AM
LOL Hulot. Epic fail is epic. ;D

I still don't get how the two nobodies can get almost 10% together. ???


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on June 29, 2011, 03:37:48 PM
Don't see EE-LV as a normal party ! ;)

Joly is ahead because of old Greens, of "traditionalists", of ideologues, of usual leftists inside the historic wing of "Les Verts".

Stoll is very representative of this very old line of municipal ecologism, the ecology of what is possible, the ecology of the neighbourhood.
Of course, he is not a Waechter, but still.
Alain Bombard was a bit like that, or Andrée Buchmann (another Alsatian).
5% is a fair result for him.

Lhomme, on the contrary, is rather low: I would have seen him at 10% alone, as the "activist" trend (Greenpeace, all the anti-nuclear guys, the anti-GMOs, etc) is pretty... active.

Well, I'm personally quite happy that this unkind and utterly proud man, Hulot, whom I practised when I worked inside Paris' civil service (and tried to -and partly succeded in- erase the local public subsidy for his foundation ;D).
But Joly is an old and very intolerant woman, no less proud than Hulot... that's not really better.
Anyway, this party is doomed with ideologues.
More reasonable people like Cochet and... errr... well... Cochet... do not manage to take power inside it.

Anyways, again, I think it's a good result for the PS.

The only good news of the day, as Lagarde, the hostages and the ministerial shuffle (and Tsonga ;)) have already put Aubry's announcement in the forgotten past of information flow.

Have you seen that Moscovici said he has made his decision but won't announce it before tomorrow morning ?
ROFL !
I "hope" for him that the hostages in Niger won't be liberated before Friday :P !
Fortunately, Bartoli has already been beaten ;D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 30, 2011, 03:48:15 AM
Joly strikes me as a kind of French Di Pietro, with strong stances on justice and fight against corruption. Maybe that makes her "intolerant" in some way, but I think she is 100% right. France is not as awful as Italy, but the way powerful people are treated by justice is pretty sickening (see Pasqua, Chirac, etc...).

I'll be voting for Moscovici in the 1st round if he runs, but I doubt he will. He knows he can't win.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on June 30, 2011, 04:07:14 AM
I'll be voting for Moscovici in the 1st round if he runs, but I doubt he will. He knows he can't win.

Well, it seems he just endorsed Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 01, 2011, 01:58:40 AM
Maybe I should make a DSK tracker again ? ;D
SARKOZY PRESIDENT ! :P

Candidacies at the PS primary are closed on the 13th of July: hurry up, Dominique ! ;)

(even if Hash is this thread's master, I'd say "please do not post about the case itself here, just about its possible political consequences")

I don't know precisely if you have to declare your candidacy yourself, or if internal rules are OK with another person filling your candidacy in your name, provided you've got all the signatures you need (no problem for DSK, as he has many absolute fans, like Michèle Sabban or François Pupponi, or even Le Guen, it seems, who are ready to sign something on July 13th, 23:59, if need be...

For the PS, the problem is more after the 13th of July:
what if DSK exits all this affair in a not so bad shape ? (well, even if Diallo made her little trick -remember what was my first thought about all this ;D- the sperm is here...)
What if he comes back not as a rapist, but just as another "hot guy" ?

He may be tarnished enough not to be the Saviour as before, but not enough to be sure that Hollande or Aubry are, after all, a good choice.
Hollande or Aubry may well be transformed in a sort of political Damocles...

And what if he wins in front of US justice, just to come back while the primary campaign is on or, worse, while Hollande or Aubry is nominated ?

Wonderful suspense !

Yeah, really, 2011 is far better than 2012 for the French presidential election ! ;D

(and now that Joly may be the Green candidate, it will be interesting to hear her on DSK !)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: beneficii on July 01, 2011, 02:44:19 AM
Could Strauss-Kahn still be in the running?  Breaking news:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/case-against-dominique-strausskahn-near-collapse-2305291.html


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 01, 2011, 02:55:50 AM
FTR, Peillon rallied Hollande, yesterday.
Well, Hollande was in real good shape, as Aubry's announcement was completely sidelined.



But, of course, now, all may have to be restarted again...

Even Jospin has just said that DSK might come back ;D.
Of course, Le Guen and Sabban. And... Borloo ;)
Sabban has already called for the primaries to be suspended.

FWIW, I personally think it's too late for DSK. His image is really tarnished now.

But he may be a great nuisance for the PS. In this respect, he has still a great political role to play.
In normal times, I'd say he would himself drop. But, now, he has a personal stake: he must wash his name, including politically. So, he'll be around for many months, even if he isn't a candidate.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 01, 2011, 05:24:41 AM
This is the most stressful campaign I've ever seen. At this point, I really hoped he was guilty, even though my guts have never believed it.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: ZuWo on July 01, 2011, 06:14:28 AM
Even if DSK is found innocent in the NY incident, isn't there the allegation that he assaulted a French journalist in a sexual way? So if he returns to the political stage, there obiously still exists a chance for his opponents to bring him down. That's why, although I must say I'm far from being an expert in French politics, I'd argue there's a long way to go for DSK to become a real contender for the nomination again.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 01, 2011, 06:34:53 AM
I've also said it and I agree with you ZuWo.
I think he's done.

But when you see that Julien Dray (he knows well....) said DSK would want to "eat the world" if he isn't condemned, it 's right: before, some doubted of DSK's real will to be a candidate and spend a very harsh period of one year campaigning, being attacked, etc.

Of course, now, he would be VERY determined to try to wash his name POLITICALLY.
Hence, maybe he wouldn't be a candidate in the end. But he'd mess everything up.

Already, Dray, Lang, Le Guen, Sabban (sure, not the big big guns) have said a comeback is entirely possible and the PS needs DSK...

Aubry is "very happy"... You betcha !!! ;D

Look, Aubry shouldn't have been a candidate if DSK had been one.
Now, how will she position herself ?

It's a bit less negative for Hollande, except that, again, some moderates inside the party, the "social democrats", will be partly tempted to go back to DSK.
Maybe not those who weren't strauss-kahnians, like Peillon; but it'd be less simple for Moscovici or Collomb (and of course Cambadélis or Destot who have joined Aubry).

These news are very negative for the PS and for Aubry.
Not per se. Not in front of the French.
But because all the apparatchiki are now running in every direction. It will be a complete mess and trust Royal to worsen it ;D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 01, 2011, 11:50:29 AM
Vance didn't drop the charges. The next audience is on july 18, candidacy deadline for the primaries is on july 13, so that's over. Don't know if it's good or bad news...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 01, 2011, 02:48:20 PM
Come on, that's not over: there may be no audience...
And many leaders are now ready to postpone the deadline for candidacies...

Aubry, Hamon, Désir are really embarrassed tonight.
All the strauss-kahnians are ready for a postponement.
Hollande "isn't against it at all".

The problem for socialists is now to see if the mess about procedures will mutate in mess among people, as usual. Or, maybe, for the first time for a long time, they'll be able to remain united.

Fortunately for them, Sarkozy is so hated...

FTR, Anne Mansouret, Tristane Banon's mother, has decided she won't be a candidate for PS primaries.
And Banon's lawyer says she may sue in France (but he's prudent and doesn't say she will do it).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on July 01, 2011, 02:50:20 PM
Let's be serious, as if he'd run now...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 02, 2011, 07:49:55 AM
He won't be a candidate. That's not the problem.
The problem is all the mess among the apparatchiki,
the problem is the "if", even if this "if" never occurred...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 02, 2011, 08:31:52 AM
He won't be a candidate. That's not the problem.
The problem is all the mess among the apparatchiki,
the problem is the "if", even if this "if" never occurred...

Oh, come on. The PS is stupid, but that's too much even for them...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 02, 2011, 04:20:35 PM
He won't be a candidate. That's not the problem.
The problem is all the mess among the apparatchiki,
the problem is the "if", even if this "if" never occurred...

Oh, come on. The PS is stupid, but that's too much even for them...

Sure, the trip to beat Sarkozy will be excruciating, even though probably successful.

In the interest of our country, I sincerely hope that the one who wins won't be too exhausted, because there are many things to do (preventing from spending too much :P and saving money !).
If the socialists win (even Aubry), good luck to them in 2012.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 04, 2011, 04:32:37 AM
No tracker today ? ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 04, 2011, 05:14:08 AM
Just wait a bit ;).

IPSOS poll for Le Point, 1-2 July 2011, sample 956

DSK's political future ?
25% certainly no future
26% not likely
(51% no)
28% likely
14% certainly
(42% yes)

Among leftists:
52% yes 44% no
Among socialists:
57% yes 40% no

It's amazing to see that the line of divide is entirely political.
Whatever the reality of facts (we still don't know if he raped her or if he accepted to bunga-bunga what could be a prostitute), it's rather unsavoury.
What is more, he may have big problems with his spendings and the money of his wife.
Still, leftists, and even more socialists, believe in a political future for him.

The only result that is not political:
"yes" is at 45% among men and only 39% among women. But the difference is tiny and I don't know if we can entail many explanations from these numbers.

Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 1-2 July 2011, sample 1000

Do you wish DSK comes back one day on French political scene ?

49% yes
45% no

Among leftists: 60% yes, 38% no
Among socialists: 65% yes, 33% no

So, DSK will come back, even though we don't know if it is as a candidate.

But he will probably be a liability for the PS, now.
First, the medias won't let him quiet.
Second, many FN voters may well support Sarkozy in the second round after all: between 2 "evils",...
Third, Aubry is weakened as, either she has no more reason to be a candidate (if he is one), or she will have to act under the shadow of a tarnished man (if he isn't). And Royal -though she is doomed- is thinking that she may have her chance after all, in the new big mess; so will become nastier. In a nutshell, the primaries will be more tense than anticipated 3 days ago.

What I want to underline -but maybe I'm completely under the charm offensive of Hollande ;D- is that the only one who has, from the beginning, chosen a good line is Hollande.
His "normal" presidency is again a good thing, in comparison with DSK's rock star system, full of money, and Sarkozy's bling bling excitement, full of void promises.

Again, all these thoughts must be put in perspective: Sarkozy is hugely, deeply, strongly rejected by many people.
I think he will lose.
But it will be hard for the PS...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 04, 2011, 05:33:39 AM
Yeah, of course that's awful news for Aubry, and everything looks even messier now. Things really need to get clear soon or a catastrophe is quite likely.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 04, 2011, 07:32:01 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #9 - 4 July 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly, as he is always tested. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him.
As soon as pollsters test the new candidate of NPA, I'll include his name (Poutou).
Pollsters haven't tested Boutin and Nihous yet, but they'll probably be included soon.               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
It's too early to revive a DSK tracker and, anyway, his old numbers wouldn't be adequate now.
            

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

4 July Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,69
NPA      0,91
Mélenchon   6,57
Chevènement   0,23
Aubry      25,33
Hulot      7,03
Bayrou      6,27
Borloo      7,93
Villepin      3,27
Sarkozy      21,95
Dupont-Aignan   0,64
Le Pen      19,19

      


      

4 July Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,84
NPA      0,71
Mélenchon   6,47
Chevènement   0,31
Hollande      27,97
Hulot      6,99
Bayrou      5,57
Borloo      7,33
Villepin      2,93
Sarkozy      21,65
Dupont-Aignan   0,64
Le Pen      18,60
   
      


      

4 July generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,78
NPA      0,79
Mélenchon   6,51
Chevènement   0,28
PS      26,92
Hulot      7,00
Bayrou      5,85
Borloo      7,57
Villepin      3,07
Sarkozy      21,77
Dupont-Aignan   0,64
Le Pen      18,83

      

No new polls this week, so no big changes.
The socialists and Mélenchon are again at their highest.

All the rightists, except Sarkozy and Borloo, are at their lowest again.

Let's wait for Joly (no big change in the beginning probably, but a possible dip afterwards), for DSK possible comeback (less good for the PS) and for pollsters to begin testing Boutin and Nihous.



As for the second round tracker, I suspend it. There are really too few polls... Damn pollsters !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 05, 2011, 03:43:04 AM
BVA poll for Le Nouvel Observateur, 1-2 July 2011, sample 860

Those who forecast a DSK candidacy:
63% no (42% not at all, 21% rather not)
31% yes (18% rather yes, 13% yes certainly)

Among leftists:
59% no
37% yes

Those who wish a DSK candidacy:
54% no (42% not at all, 12% rather not)
41% yes (23% rather yes, 18% yes certainly)

Among leftists:
48% no
50% yes

This is the problem, whatever the titles of the medias): the opinion is very polarized and the left is itself quite polarized, but with a majority in favour of DSK's comeback.

Of course, all these polls were made just after Friday 1st of July and this new wave of images, news and comments ad nauseam.

Tristane Banon will make the mess last longer, in a way that is also bad for Hollande it seems.

After all, Royal may appear as a "safe" candidate ;D.
Sorry for this bad joke ;).

Seriously, imagine the right had Fillon as a candidate or Juppé... well, everything would be possible !
But with Sarkozy, the PS has still a big margin of mistakes, infightings and shenanigans before really losing...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 05, 2011, 11:46:45 AM
Here's what it gives us ! :)

Aubry :
()

Hollande :
()


On Fab's request, I've included Villepin despite his falling into utter irrelevancy. The 4 others are just insignificant (in both senses). Note that "Hulot" is likely outdated, and once the EELV runoff is held it will be time to change it into "Joly". ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 05, 2011, 12:01:52 PM
Why is Le Pen is dark red? It makes it look like he's on the left.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 05, 2011, 12:32:53 PM
Why is Le Pen is dark red? It makes it look like he's on the left.

It was supposed to be brown, not dark red. ;) But indeed it's quite hard to distinguish. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 05, 2011, 04:50:08 PM
And Le Pen is a she, Xahar...

Fine graphs: trends are clear.

Joly will be substituted to Hulot as soon as pollsters take her into account in all their polls.
It's still not the case.

Thanks for having included Villepin: everybody who is above 2.5% deserves to be here ;).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 05, 2011, 05:01:53 PM
So what's the deal with DSK? Is he coming back or at least strongly leaning one way or the other? Would he even have much of a chance in the primary?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 05, 2011, 10:51:10 PM

Ah, yes. I get the Les Pens confused.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 06, 2011, 04:02:00 AM
So what's the deal with DSK? Is he coming back or at least strongly leaning one way or the other? Would he even have much of a chance in the primary?

The left is split 50-50 about whether or not he should come back in the race (which is already a bad sign). Assuming he wants (and it's doubtful, though not impossible), he'll have a hard time for a lot of reasons : his image has still been degraded by this story, Martine Aubry (with whom he had an "agreement") has already declared, the deadline for candidacies is almost over and other PS bosses don't seem to want him back.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 06, 2011, 04:34:09 AM
I wanted to share a personal analysis, FWIW.

More and more, I feel that Hollande is the "provincial" candidate against Aubry, who is becoming the "elite" candidate.

Of course, both belong to the political and civil service elite, but, as we all know, image is more important than reality.

1- In polls' numbers, you clearly see that Aubry is stronger among upper classes (and also among unemployed).
Hollande is stronger among workers, employees, shopkeepers and tradesmen, peasants, retirees.

2- Inside the PS, Hollande is more supported by local bigwigs outside Paris: Gérard Collomb, Jean-Marc Ayrault, François Rebsamen, François Patriat, Edmond Hervé, Michel Sapin, Ries, etc.
Aubry is more supported by national apparatchiki from Paris: Cambadélis, Bartolone, Hamon, Désir, Assouline, Lamy, etc.

Of course, there are many, many exceptions, as Moscovici, Cahuzac or Touraine (for Hollande) are more "Parisians" than "provincials"; and, conversely, Fabius, Destot, Hazan (for Aubry) are real local barons.
But the feeling is here more important.

3- The national medias are clearly behind Aubry (to the point of outrageous partiality, believe me): Libération, Le Monde, Le Nouvel Observateur, but also Rue89, Mediapart, Slate.
The regional press is more on Hollande's side (Le Télégramme, Sud-Ouest, La Montagne,...).

4- And then, the personal image is more balanced, as Aubry appears to be "close to people".
But, still, Hollande's humour (not really a great presidential quality, I know...), his lack of ministerial periods (more an asset than a liability I think...) and his long tenure as PS first secretary make him more "popular" than her, sometimes wrongly seen as first a minister, hence a Parisian, and second the daughter of Delors, hence an elite woman.

5- As for manifestoes, Aubry sticks to the party's one.
Hollande has his line of "normal" president, again fashionable with new episodes of DSK affair.

All these criterions may well be less important than I think.
But it's fine to think a bit about all this now, as the primary campaign is on and will be shorter than expected.
Only 6 weeks between late August and early October for the socialists to kill themselves (;D), that's not very long after all...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 06, 2011, 04:58:47 AM
That makes sense, but honestly who cares ? As you said, it's all a matter of image.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 06, 2011, 05:38:15 AM
I think nobody cares per se, but that it can count, if we remember this old trend in French politics: people against elites.
Of course, Hollande won't make his campaign on this in an explicit way, but it's like a background, that many people may feel almost unconsciously.

I may be wrong: Aubry may be seen as more serious and without any will to play the media game, which is a strength after 4 years of Sarkozy and after a Royal candidacy.

And, of course, those who will come to cast a ballot in the primary are likely to be more from the upper classes and from those who care a lot about politics.
And these primaries are for leftists, not for rightists or for the popular electorate of the FN.

But, still, I think there is something here.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 06, 2011, 09:30:20 AM
In "other" news, but related to the question of Borloo's possible candidacy:

- Yvan Lachaud has just been elected to replace Sauvadet (new Civil Service minister) as head of the NC parliamentarian group.
He has received 13 votes, against 7 for Jean-Christophe Lagarde, 2 for Nicolas Perruchot and 2 for Philippe Folliot (don't cry, Hash ;)).
Lachaud is Morin's man, while Lagarde, nr.2 inside the NC, is now a devoted Borloo supporter.
(Perruchot is more a "liberal", in the Parti Républicain meaning of the word; Folliot is a firebrand outsider)

It's not really good news for Borloo, as Morin is trying to force a primary inside the new party, ARES (Alliance républicaine, écologiste et sociale).



The ARES, precisely, is more and more an UDF redux, I mean a smaller UDF, but with all the old trends.
- The Gauche Moderne (Jean-Marie Bockel) is the modern Parti Social-Démocrate (PSD)
- The Parti Radical (Borloo) is... the Parti Radical
- The Nouvau Centre (Morin) is a modern mix of CDS and Parti Républicain
- The Convention Démocrate (de Charette) is the current PPDF or Clubs Perspectives et Réalités
- I guess there will be "direct members", as the old Adhérents Directs.

The Alliance Centriste (Arthuis) is still outside the ARES, but will probably join it soon, and is a current CDS.

And, now, how surprising, the CNIP (Bourdouleix) may well join the ARES. In a way, it's a modern mix of Parti Républicain and old CNI. Of course, a former president of the CNIP is protesting agaisnt Bourdouleix's line, considering it's unreadable, as the CNIP was allied with the UMP, then Dupont-Aignan and even thought about supporting Boutin, in the recent years.

Nobody cares in France, but it's so exciting ! ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 06, 2011, 05:23:16 PM
Speaking to myself again, I add that Jean-Michel Baylet, PRG leader, is a candidate to the primary organized by the PS.
Yes, this primary was intended to be enlarged to the whole left.

Not a good news for Hollande as some PRG parliamentarians (like Yvon Collin) had already rallied his candidacy.
Of course, Baylet won't make a Soviet score...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 07, 2011, 08:52:35 AM
Baylet ? Really ? ROFL.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 08, 2011, 04:11:46 AM
CSA poll for Les Echos, 5-6 July 2011, sample 1005

Do you wish a DSK candidacy ?

16% yes, completely
17% yes, rather
19% not really
43% not at all

Among socialists / among leftists
23 / 20
19 / 21
20 / 19
36 / 37

DSK is a gain in negative territory, even in the left.



OpinionWay poll for LCI and Le Figaro Magazine, 4-5 July 2011, sample 1002


Do you wish a DSK candidacy ?
35% yes
65% no

Among socialists:
55
45

Not exactly the same result, eh ? ;)
Interesting to see that there is, in this poll, no real difference between men and women.


Do you think DSK will be a candidate ?
25% yes
74% no

among socialists:
31
69

So, we don't really know if DSK is in negative territory among the left, but we see that, though few have illusions on the possibility of a candidacy now, many on the left would still support such a candidacy.
This will fade away, probably, but that will still be a problem for the PS candidate's legitimacy if DSK is still around in September.

(BTW, that's personal, but it's worth saying it, once and for all: why on earth DSK doesn't write a simple letter to the president of the national committee in charge of the primaries' organization to confirm he won't be a candidate ?

He's not really kind towards the socialists :P : had I been a socialist, I would have hated him, just like I hated Villepin with his CPE in the spring of 2006, pushing the right on the verge of collapsing...)

Would (s)he be a good president ?
among the whole sample / among socialists
Hollande 50 / 81
Aubry 41 / 81
DSK 44 / 67
Royal 21 / 45

Interesting to see Hollande among people over 60 years old: 68% ! (Aubry 45%)
Aubry and Hollande are on a par among 25-34 and Aubry only leads slightly among 18-24.
Hollande has a 56% result among men and 44% among women, Aubry has 42% and 40%.

Among leftists (412), ballots cast for:
Hollande 38
DSK 33
Royal 16
Montebourg 9
Valls 4
don't know 12

Aubry 37
Hollande 35
Royal 15
Montebourg 8
Valls 5
don't know 11

Aubry seems to be slightly up.
As I've always said, Aubry has a central positioning inside the PS and controls the apparatus, so she is very well placed to win the primaries, despite the fact she is a candidate by default.

But Hollande would of course be a better candidate in the real election, considering the electoral sociology, the fact that he'd be able to steal votes on the centre-right and among retiress, hurting Sarkozy, and that he'd be able to be more centrist and to crush Sarkozy between himself and Panzergirl.

Again, it's likely that the primary will be razor-thin between Aubry and Hollande.
I'm hungry :D !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 08, 2011, 04:18:19 AM
(BTW, that's personal, but it's worth saying it, once and for all: why on earth DSK doesn't write a simple letter to the president of the national committee in charge of the primaries' organization to confirm he won't be a candidate ?

He's not really kind towards the socialists :P : had I been a socialist, I would have hated him, just like I hated Villepin with his CPE in the spring of 2006, pushing the right on the verge of collapsing...)

Pretty much so.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 10, 2011, 10:37:06 AM
LH2 poll for Yahoo!, 8-9 July 2011, sample 957

Just in time for tomorrow's tracker ;).

Hollande 29 / Aubry 26 / Royal 13.5
Sarkozy 21 / 21.5 / 23
Le Pen 13 / 15 / 15
Bayrou 11 / 10 / 13
Borloo 7.5 / 8 / 10
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 7
Joly 6 / 6 / 10
Villepin 3 / 4.5 / 4
Boutin 1 / 0.5 / 0
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1
Chevènement 1 / 1 / 2
Arthaud 1 / 1.5 / 1.5
Poutou 0.5 / 0 / 0

OK... so is Panzergirl really so down and Bayrou really so high ?
In 2007, a part of former Le Pen voters clearly voted for Bayrou, as he was perceived as a so-called anti-establishment candidate (it's not a joke... ::)).
Isn't the same phenomenon here or just a confirmation that LH2 isn't a great pollster ?

Mélenchon's recent surge isn't readable any longer in these results, while Poutou and Boutin, tested for the first time in an explicit way, are doing very bad.

No real surprise for the others: Villepin still bad, Joly a bit higher though not at Hulot's levels, Borloo slightly higher but not above 10, Hollande above Aubry. I don't even talk about Royal.

2nd round, as usual:
Hollande 60 Sarkozy 40
Aubry 58 Sarkozy 42

If the socialist win, who will you prefer as president ?

Among the whole sample / among socialists / among leftists / among rightists
Hollande 46 / 55 / 43 / 54
Aubry 33 / 39 / 46 / 16
none of them 15 / 3 / 7 / 27
don't know 6 / 3 / 4 / 3 (there is a problem here...)

And an original question:
DSK as PM ?
Among the whole sample / etc.
yes 35 / 46 / 39 / 31
no 63 / 53 / 60 / 67

So, no sex scandal in Matignon after 2012, please ;D, even among the socialists.
Maybe DSK could join Tapie to become a comedian.
Or try to become TV anchor for a trash channel :P.



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 10, 2011, 12:00:00 PM
Le Pen at 15% ? If it's not an outlier, that's good news for sure. I guess Le Pen needs to constantly be in the news to survive, but recent times have been so eventful that it was impossible for the media to keep on with their "Le Pen's irresistible rise" narrative.

So you'll start including Boutin in the tracker ? Fun. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Beet on July 10, 2011, 10:43:11 PM
I read an article that said Le Pen was taking some of the Socialists' voters because she promised tariffs. Also she is against the euro.

Suppose that Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy were forced to leave the euro, where would this leave Le Pen? Could the National Front then claim vindication, saying it had been right all along? Or would the mainstream parties be able to adjust to the situation and co-opt the protectionist issue and the euro issue?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 11, 2011, 02:24:04 AM
French politics are far more about image than about issues. If Le Pen is so high among working class, it's less because of her stances than because of her style (populism, etc...).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 11, 2011, 04:37:10 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #10 - 11 July 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. Boutin appears in this tracker.
Poutou is now the NPA candidate and he keeps all the previous numbers for Besancenot, Martin and anonymous NPA candidate.
Joly is substituted to Hulot and keeps his previous numbers (though she was sometimes tested on her own, but that would alter the other candidates numbers, which would be unfair).
Pollsters haven't tested Nihous yet, which is a surprise as it'll be easier for him to gather the 500 signatures than for Dupont-Aignan, even Arthaud, Boutin or Chevènement.               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
Fortunately, there is no need to revive a DSK tracker and even less reason to follow a Royal tracker :P.
            

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

11 July Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,98
Poutou   0,64
Mélenchon   6,25
Chevènement   0,47
Aubry   25,61
Joly   6,50
Bayrou   7,65
Borloo   8,09
Villepin   3,64
Boutin   0,17
Sarkozy   21,66
Dupont-Aignan   0,74
Le Pen   17,61
      


      

11 July Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,90
Poutou   0,64
Mélenchon   6,18
Chevènement   0,54
Hollande   28,50
Joly   6,49
Bayrou   7,45
Borloo   7,45
Villepin   2,87
Boutin   0,34
Sarkozy   21,42
Dupont-Aignan   0,74
Le Pen   16,47

   
      


      

11 July generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,93
Poutou   0,64
Mélenchon   6,21
Chevènement   0,51
PS   27,35
Joly   6,49
Bayrou   7,53
Borloo   7,71
Villepin   3,18
Boutin   0,27
Sarkozy   21,52
Dupont-Aignan   0,74
Le Pen   16,93
      

This week is really special, as we've lost 5 old polls (which were ponderated very low, but still) and the new LH2 poll from yesterday has hugely altered all the numbers.

So, Mélenchon's and Sarkozy's small rises are stopped.
Joly is a bit lower than Hulot.
Socialists are quite high and still on the rise, with Hollande above Aubry by almost 3 points now.
For the first time among the utterly irrelevant candidates, LO is above NPA. Hurray for real trotskyism ! ;D

Of course, the BIG, BIG news are Le Pen's "free fall" and Bayrou's sudden surge (threatening Borloo): 1.5 point in each case.
Maybe LH2 will be an outlier.
Maybe many French people are "lost".

Bear in mind that, in the previous LH2 poll, Bayrou was already "high" (in relative terms) and Le Pen already "low" ("only" 17-18, when she was at 20 or above everywhere else).

I really hope we'll have other polls before the summer recess, because, otherwise, LH2 will weigh more and more in this tracker until late August...

Overall, all these numbers are very good for the socialists:
- disappearing far left,
- no big Mélenchon's threat,
- Joly (obviously) disappointing,
- Bayrou and Borloo neutralizing each other,
- Sarkozy stalled,
- more little rightist or threatening-for-the-right candidates to come (Boutin, Nihous),
- and no direct effect of the release of "DSK 2: I may be back".

EDIT: with all these changes, why not updating your graph as soon as today, Antonio ;) ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 11, 2011, 05:31:52 AM
All this for one poll which may be an outlier ? :P

Anyways, do you count Hulot's former numbers as Joly's or did you edit the data in your previous polls ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 11, 2011, 07:27:54 AM
All this for one poll which may be an outlier ? :P

Anyways, do you count Hulot's former numbers as Joly's or did you edit the data in your previous polls ?

French medias do not order enough polls... :( What can I do ?
If you prefer to wait for your graph to be updated, no problem, you're the one who "draws".

We just replace Hulot by Joly today, that's all.
Joly wasn't tested by every pollster, contrary to Hulot. So, if I edit only the numbers when Joly was tested, it'll make some weird changes.
And, well, Hulot was more or less the generic Green candidate, so it's pretty accurate to keep him for the past. After all, if Royal was nominated in October (;D), the best thing to do would be to compare her to the generic PS tracker... (yeah, I know, I must stop dreaming...)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on July 11, 2011, 12:27:40 PM
I really hope we'll have other polls before the summer recess, because, otherwise, LH2 will weigh more and more in this tracker until late August...

At last one poll will be released tomorrow or the day after, but it's from BVA, so I don't know if this is exactly a good news.

And there is this one from Ifop (due at 18:00 CEST so this time all is perfectly legal ;D) :

IFOP poll for France-Soir, 30 June-8 July 2011, sample 570 self-declared socialists among 1053 self-declared leftists (btw I don't know how it is possible to find 1053 leftists
among the 1970 people interviewed, but...).

among leftist / among socialists
Aubry 40 (+6) / 41 (+7)
Hollande 38 (+1) / 42 (-1)
Royal 11 (-2) / 9 (-2)
Valls 5 (=) / 4 (=)
Montebourg 4 (=) / 3 (=)
another one - (-1) / - (-1)
none of them 2 (-3) / 1 (-2)
don't know - (-1) / - (-1)

Second round

Hollande 50 (-3) / 53 (-5)
Aubry 50 (+3) / 47 (+5)

It seems all the undecided are trending to Aubry, so it will be a little harder for Hollande to come back. In the first wave (June 30-July 1st) Aubry is way ahead, and in the second (July 7-8) Hollande is back, and strongly back. I don't know if this is an effect of the catastrophic Aubry launching or statistical noise, but since the two samples are about 500 people each, I think this is worth to notice.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 11, 2011, 04:12:39 PM
Well, it probably means that, in fact, many voters aren't so sure between Aubry and Hollande.
A razor-thin result will be fine for the right, of course... :P
Anyway, this is a big rise for Aubry: she is regaining all the points she has lost since April.
The problem for her is that she may not be able to maintain this wave until October.

For the moment, I don't know if Aubry's attacks on rumors is a good idea.
Of course, she is at the centre and forces every other socialist candidate to defend her...

But, at the same time, many French people weren't aware of these rumors...
And as many are wrong but at least one is confirmed by many people who have no advantage in it (past addiction to alcohol - which isn't a big deal, BTW), she may be spreading herself rumors she wants to kill....

That's a dangerous game, especially when so many rumors existed on Sarkozy and especially when Borloo's own trend to drink a lot is a subject of open jokes, notably in leftist medias.

We'll see if it's a good thing for her, but I'm not sure.

Hollande may have a problem of its own if Banon says weird things. But, for the moment, he is managing all these delicate things wuite well.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 12, 2011, 03:24:57 AM
IPSOS poll for France Télévision, Radio France, Le Monde, 8-9 July 2011, sample 955

Aubry 29 / Hollande 29 / Royal 17
Sarkozy 22 / 22 / 24
Le Pen 18 / 17 / 18
Borloo 8 / 8 / 11
Bayrou 5 / 5 / 6
Joly 7 / 7.5 / 9
Mélenchon 4.5 / 5 / 7
Arthaud 2 / 2 / 3
Poutou 1 / 1 / 2
Villepin 3 / 3 / 3.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

With LH2 in one direction and IPSOS in the other, they are now closer from each other, except that, in this one, there is no Bayrou surge.

Sarkozy is a bit safer from Le Pen's threat, who was already lower in IPSOS.
But she doesn't fall at 15 or below here.
IPSOS isn't as reliable as in 2007 but I think it's still better than LH2.

Socialists are high but were very high in IPSOS poll already.

Mélenchon's surge seems to have ended.
Joly is a bit higher.
Borloo has stopped his fall.
In the titanesque marketing battle (name recognition) inside the far left, Arthaud is remarkably... "high".

Of course, the big news is that Aubry is on a par with Hollande for the first time since DSK's explosion.
Royal is Royal: I don't understand why pollsters still test her, while they don't bother to include Nihous.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 12, 2011, 06:21:25 AM
Hollande may have a problem of its own if Banon says weird things. But, for the moment, he is managing all these delicate things wuite well.

Wut ? ??? How would this affect Hollande ?


So the LH2 poll was definitely an outlier... Le Pen still at 17-18% (which isn't catastrophic but still worrying). Bayrou isn't crazily high as in the other poll, but Mélenchon still down.

BTW, apparently Joly has won the runoff with 60% (according to France Inter), which means she basically took all of Hulot's votes. Very good to know. :)


Oh, and I noticed by updating your tracker that the standing of little candidates is also totally transformed : Chevènement's score is doubled and at its highest level since may 23, Poutou and Arthaud's scores are flipped (in the latter's favor), NDA higher too...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 12, 2011, 07:58:01 AM
Hollande may have a problem of its own if Banon says weird things. But, for the moment, he is managing all these delicate things wuite well.

Wut ? ??? How would this affect Hollande ?


Her lawyer has already said that Hollande was well aware of the problem, though he says that he only knows the "great lines"...
This lawyer is a piece of crap who wants to make his own advertisement, but, with current French medias, even this sh** could affect Hollande.
After all, if Aubry makes all this buzz with rumours, everything could go in any direction, for the moment...

So the LH2 poll was definitely an outlier... Le Pen still at 17-18% (which isn't catastrophic but still worrying). Bayrou isn't crazily high as in the other poll, but Mélenchon still down.

BTW, apparently Joly has won the runoff with 60% (according to France Inter), which means she basically took all of Hulot's votes. Very good to know. :)


Oh, and I noticed by updating your tracker that the standing of little candidates is also totally transformed : Chevènement's score is doubled and at its highest level since may 23, Poutou and Arthaud's scores are flipped (in the latter's favor), NDA higher too...

Le Choc des Titans ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 12, 2011, 08:16:18 AM
Meh, until now I've heard neither about Aubry's rumours nor about Hollande's. OK, I barely listen France Inter once every 3 days, but I don't think it monopolizes attention as much.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 12, 2011, 08:27:43 AM
BVA poll for RTL, Orange and regional medias, 8-9 July 2011, sample 966

Aubry 28 / Hollande 31 / DSK 20
Sarkozy 24 / 23 / 25

Le Pen 17 / 16 / 18
Borloo 7 / 9 / 10
Bayrou 7 / 6 / 7
Joly 5 / 5 / 7
Mélenchon 5 / 4 / 7
Villepin 4 / 4 / 4
Boutin 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 0 / 0 / 0
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1
Poutou 1 / 0 / 0

No Royal hypothesis, but one with DSK :P: the latter is more and more "segolenized" ;D.

Anyway, a poll pretty much in line with IPSOS one.
Bayrou is "fine" but not that high anf Panzergirl has lost her clout of the beginning of the year, though standing clearly above 15.
Mélenchon has stopped and Joly doesn't shine.

Another good poll for the socialists.
Hollande is again above Aubry.

What is wonderful with BVA is that we know how the first round voters would vote in the second ;):

Aubry 58
Sarkozy 42

Hollande 58
Sarkozy 42

DSK 54
Sarkozy 46
DSK for PS candidate ! ;D

Well, some numbers aren't surprising:

26% of Le Pen towards Aubry, 45% for Sarkozy
22% of Le Pen towards Hollande, 51% for Sarkozy
usual results for FN voters, with Aubry, who is more on the left, being slightly better, probably among popular electorate

91% of Joly towards Aubry and 6% for Sarkozy
83% of Joly towards Hollande and 6% for Sarkozy
Aubry better than Hollande here
it's high for the socialists, but it's Joly

88% of Mélenchon towards Aubry, 3% for Sarkozy
82% of Mélenchon towards Hollande, 4% for Sarkozy
extreme-left numbers are silghtly better than Mélenchon's

66% of Bayrou towards Aubry, 21% for Sarkozy
72% of Bayrou towards Hollande, 18% for Sarkozy
we already knew Bayrou voters hate Sarkozy, it's confirmed
Hollande better than Aubry, no surprise

33% of Borloo towards Aubry, 60% for Sarkozy
52% of Borloo towards Hollande, 42% for Sarkozy
this is the most amazing result: we've already seen these big losses for Sarkozy among centre-right voters; it's a big weakness
and Hollande is far better at benefiting from it

67% of Villepin towards Aubry, 21% for Sarkozy
47% of Villepin towards Hollande, 34% for Sarkozy
well... this is were tiny samples can't be viewed as very scientific...
not that Villepin voters love Sarkozy (again, no surprise here), but Aubry being better than Hollande ?!?

the most laughable results are the following:
81% of Boutin towards Aubry, 19% for Sarkozy
49% towards Hollande, 47% for Sarkozy
ROFL !
though Aubry, who is married, though divorced, who has a straight talk, who is not a "star" at all and who is Delors' daughter, may please some "values" and pro-European voters, this difference is properly ridiculous



In the same poll:

among the leftists / among the whole sample:
Aubry 35 / 27
Hollande 34 / 31
Royal 11 / 10
Montebourg 4 / 4
Valls 2 / 5
Baylet 2 / 2
none of them 8 / 17
don't know 4 / 4

They have dared to test Baylet !

Another poll where Aubry and Hollande are now on a par.

And another funny hypothesis... (they dare to do this sh** while they aren't testing a second round Aubry-Hollande... ah, French pollsters ::))

Aubry 28 / 22
Hollande 27 / 25
DSK 19 / 16
Royal 10 / 10
Montebourg 4 / 3
Valls 2 / 5
Baylet 1 / 2
none of them 5 / 13
don't know 4 / 4


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 12, 2011, 08:42:16 AM
Meh, until now I've heard neither about Aubry's rumours nor about Hollande's. OK, I barely listen France Inter once every 3 days, but I don't think it monopolizes attention as much.

That's why I think Aubry is overreacting and it may backfire as some people may well search on the Internet, while they weren't aware of this sh** or they didn't bother.
And she clearly uses this, not exactly against the right as everybody says, but to be at the center of the socialist stage again...

It seems that the far-right has launched rumours on her husband being the lawyer of "salafists", on her having a cancer when she punched her own eye, on her being a lesbian (just based on her look I think...).
There is also another rumour which is based on evidence from civil servants who worked in Lille about her addiction to alcohol, probably when she lost the legislative election in 2002. The rest is just usual rumours, this is the only one which can retain the eye: but it may well be a positive rumour if many people find her more humane as she may have had the same problems as them... :P

As for Hollande, nothing more than Banon's lawyer attack recently.

Of course, all this is now old story: the rumours are already part of French political life for many years:
rumours on Royal and Louis Schweitzer (and other men) in 2007,
on Hollande and Hidalgo in 2007,
on Dati's husbands and Dati's daughter's fathers since 2008 (the list was long and weird: even Aznar !),
on DSK (well...),
on Sarkozy's supposed mistresses (pre-2007 and post-2007) and on Carla's "other" private life,
on Borloo's own near-addiction to alcohol,
on Moscovici's private life,
etc.

But Giscard's, Mitterrand's and Chirac's mistresses were always great rumours...
Mitterrand shortening his teeth, hiding a daughter, being ill (many revealed to be right in his case...).
Pompidou being ill too...

All these rumours aren't from the far-right and the far-left: you'll always find political zombies in each party ready to fight by all means...

Rumours are disgusting, but they belong to human nature, it seems.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 12, 2011, 08:52:50 AM
I just hope the 2012 campaign will be on actual policies, and not about these kinds of hearsays. But probably that's asking too much to the medias...


Anyways, 81% of Boutin voters for Aubry... ROFL indeed... ::) I wonder how those people will feel if Aubry wins and the government legalizes gay marriage ! ;D (BTW, didn't she also make a law easing abortion during Jospin's days ?)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on July 12, 2011, 09:04:39 AM
Meh, until now I've heard neither about Aubry's rumours nor about Hollande's. OK, I barely listen France Inter once every 3 days, but I don't think it monopolizes attention as much.

That's why I think Aubry is overreacting and it may backfire as some people may well search on the Internet, while they weren't aware of this sh** or they didn't bother.
And she clearly uses this, not exactly against the right as everybody says, but to be at the center of the socialist stage again...

It seems that the far-right has launched rumours on her husband being the lawyer of "salafists", on her having a cancer when she punched her own eye, on her being a lesbian (just based on her look I think...).
There is also another rumour which is based on evidence from civil servants who worked in Lille about her addiction to alcohol, probably when she lost the legislative election in 2002. The rest is just usual rumours, this is the only one which can retain the eye: but it may well be a positive rumour if many people find her more humane as she may have had the same problems as them... :P

The rumour I find the most hilarious is the one concerning the nickname Sarkozy is supposed to give to Aubry and her husband, 'Martin et Martine", based on a medieval legend including a Moor in the north of France IIUC. Nobody knows about this legend (and certainly not Sarkozy), and I can't believe one second the UMP people are dumb enough to try this way to link Aubry to Muslims. This is too shrewd (1) for them and (2) to work.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 12, 2011, 09:25:00 AM
Anyways, 81% of Boutin voters for Aubry... ROFL indeed... ::) I wonder how those people will feel if Aubry wins and the government legalizes gay marriage ! ;D (BTW, didn't she also make a law easing abortion during Jospin's days ?)

Yep. 12 weeks.
But, you know, many Catholics in France are leftist ones and very, very tolerant, despite the Church's awful image (as an institution) in French medias...
They only see Jesus as a Gandhi, not as a founder of moral values and of a faith that needs personal efforts.

If I may... that's only personal:
I think there are 4 main trends in French catholicism:

- the vast majority of people still declaring that they are Catholic, while they go to a mass at most for Christmas and Easter (and when grand-daddy died): 80% of French Catholics (who are themselves some 60% of the whole population),

- a majority among Catholics who go regularly to a mass are in fact heirs of JOC-JEC-JAC, the MRP, the Sillon, all the social catholicism (which has recycled itself in Delors and all the moderate socialists of the North-West, many of them "rocardians": 15% of French Catholics or three quarters of the "real" Catholics,
they are the CCFD, Secours Catholique, Emmaüs, Scouts de France crowd, to be simple

- a minority which will be bigger in the future in RELATIVE terms only (as the second category is less and less numerous: they are old, they are the "1968" Catholics in a way), which go to the mass every week, which abides by Vatican laws, but which is pro-European, traditional only on values and family, proud but respectful and very sceptical on capitalism: 4% of French Catholics or one fifth of the "real" Catholics,
they are the Emmanuel, Renouveau, Scouts unitaires, AED, Alliance pour les droits de la vie crowd, to be simple

Boutin is a mix of these 2 categories, as she isn't so rightist on Europe, on social matters, on poverty, on economical system; she is "personnaliste" and she refers to Christian philosophers of the 1920-1950s, like Maritain or Mounnier.

- a tiny minority of "traditionalists" or "tradis" (on religious matters) and "integrists" (i.e. followers of Mgr Lefebvre), which are inside the FN (Bernard Marie/Antony) or very close to it (Club de l'Horloge, MPF): 1% of French Catholics or 5% of "regular" Catholics.

Villiers was somewhere between the 2 last categories, closer and closer to the last one, though.

It's not very precise, but that's quite accurate, I think.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 12, 2011, 09:56:16 AM
Joly 58.16
she'll be the Green candidate
Hulot 41.34

He had 40.22 in the first round. So most of Lhomme and Stoll voters went for Joly.
"Traditional" Greens have rejected Hulot, that's clear.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 12, 2011, 10:17:18 AM
Joly 58.16
she'll be the Green candidate
Hulot 41.34

He had 40.22 in the first round. So most of Lhomme and Stoll voters went for Joly.
"Traditional" Greens have rejected Hulot, that's clear.

And that's done ! :) I've always feared that Hulot would somehow magically end up winning (it's a primary, so really nothing is impossible). Now the joke is definitely out (if he runs by himfelf, he would just ridiculize himself).


Your description of French catholics seems pretty interesting and accurate, but I feel you're underestimating the last two categories and overestimating the second. It is a well-known political fact that a strong majority of "true" catholics are right-wing, so I have a hard time seeing 75% of them as social catholics who don't give a damn about social issues.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 12, 2011, 04:29:35 PM
That's not as simple:
you can be a social catholic and vote for the centre right or for Bayrou: these catholics are numerous, believe me.
(Ciotti, Luca and Lefebvre aren't ALL the right, you know ;) ...)

And Sarkozy has clearly lost them, as many are able to vote for Hollande or even Aubry (they already vote for the PS in Brittany or Pays-de-la-Loire: Le Pensec, Josselin, Poignant, but also Ayrault, Monnier (former Angers' mayor), are all examples of this "second left" which was able to woo some social catholics: MRP first, CFDT (and CFTC) spirit, social-democracy with christian past.

They were UDF voters and bitterly regret the old UDF (see how the UMP has problems in the North-West).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 13, 2011, 03:13:01 AM
CSA poll, for BFM TV, RMC and 20 Minutes, 11 July 2011, sample 850 RVs out of a total of 1005

Hollande 26 / Aubry 25 / Royal 17
Sarkozy 26 / 27 / 28
Le Pen 16 / 16 / 17
Mélenchon 7 / 6.5 / 8.5
Joly 5 / 5 / 7
Bayrou 6 / 6 / 6
Borloo 8 / 9 / 11
Villepin 2 / 2 / 2
Boutin 0.5 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1
Arthaud 2 / 1 / 1
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

Well, well, well...
In this one, this is Sarkozy who is surging a bit. Far above Le Pen, he is now on a par with the socialists (being even above Aubry !?!).

No Bayrou surge. No Mélenchon fall. No Joly effect (but it was tested before her nomination).

This series of 4 polls (LH2, IPSOS, BVA, CSA) may be summarized by saying that there is something moving. But we don't know what.
After all, maybe it's just that French people are eager to begin their holidays and don't care so much about politics :P.

Sarkozy remains deeply weak and, even though he seems to be less threatened by Le Pen, Panzergirl is still disturbingly high, above 15.
How will he be able to maintain Le Pen lower while trying to bring back all those voters on the centre-right who are happy to answer "Borloo" in opinion polls but who are thinking hard about voting for Hollande (or, at least, to cast a blank ballot in the 2nd round )?

The socialists have managed to clear any other leftist threat:
Mélenchon, if he surges at all, is unable to climb above 7;
Joly is a weak candidate for the Greens;
the Trotskyites have returned to anonymity.

As for Bayrou, he is mostly followed by a small bunch of "extreme-centrists", anti-establishement people who would otherwise abstain. Even if he makes progress, it's on the centre-right, among moderate people who hate so much Sarkozy that they are ready to vote for anybody else. Votes that can be gained by Hollande easily or even by Aubry between the 2 rounds, when she'd call back Daddy :P.

Still, the left is hardly at 40%. This is not a very high basis considering the weird momentum that often emerges in a presidential campaign.

What is great for the left is that very few voters for the Green candidate seems to "betray" in the 2nd round (usually, it's more 75% for the left; now it seems to be 90%, with Sarkozy grasping almost 0). Among FN voters, it's as usual (50% for the right, 25% for the left, 25% abstaining). And, what is more, they are able to grasp a majority of Bayrou voters and more than a third of centre-right voters.
Sarkozy has started too late his "presidentialization": he should have really strated before the summer of 2010... Even though the left isn't so strong, he may well make Hollande or Aubry win.



In the same poll (beware, it's only among those who are sure or likely to vote in the primaries, though we don't know how many they are):

Among the whole sample / among socialists
Hollande 34 / 41
Aubry 32 / 41
Royal 16 / 11
Valls 3 / 2
Montebourg 1 / 1
Baylet 1 / 0
none 4 / 0
don't know 9 / 4

The ghost of Reims 2008 is entrenched ;D.

Hollande 48 / 52
Aubry 43 / 42

Hollande 65 / 73
Royal 25 / 21

Aubry 61 / 74
Royal 28 / 23

Hollande is still ahead, but everything is open.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 13, 2011, 05:04:24 AM
WHAT THE F**K ? :o

OK, things will end up very badly...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on July 13, 2011, 11:20:34 AM
It is le PS, after all.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: ZuWo on July 13, 2011, 11:45:52 AM
Is there a reason for Sarkozy's rise in the latest poll (e.g. positive news about the President, negative news surrounding the Socialists), or should that poll be regarded as completely strange?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 13, 2011, 12:49:35 PM
Not as far as I know, hence my reaction...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 13, 2011, 03:01:28 PM
Our problem, currently, is that no pollster seems to be coherent with himself over the time and with at least some other pollsters...

CSA was bad in 2007, but it seems slightly better now.

I don't know what to say nowadays.

IPSOS was the best, but has clearly fallen in quality.
IFOP was very good and still seems good, but not as good as before.
SOFRES is clearly down.
BVA, CSA and OpinionWay seems better, but at which level ?
LH2 doesn't seem to have made progress.

As for events that could help Sarkozy, I see none.
I don't dare to say that the new positioning of Sarkozy is already working: being more presidential, being outside the constant flow of news, seeming a bit more moral and humane.
Saying this would be ridiculous, unless we have 3 or 4 polls to confirm it.

Does Greece begin to have an effect ? Why not.
Some French people beginning to be afraid of high spendings and debts and thinking (rightly or wrongly) that Sarkozy would be better to deal with these financial problems.

Wars and foreign policy ? French people don't care about them.

This is a mystery (except if it's just CSA, like Bayrou's surge was just LH2...).
That's what is bad for the socialists, as it can be a deeper change.
But, frankly, Sarkozy is so down... and is so bad a second round candidate now, if you see how badly Borloo's voters agree to support him in the second round, that it is still a shoe-in for the PS.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 13, 2011, 03:14:04 PM
If things can improve so quickly for him, there's no doubt he has a fair chance to win. And all this even before the primaries ! Now I really have a bad feeling...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 13, 2011, 03:15:25 PM
If things can improve so quickly for him, there's no doubt he has a fair chance to win. And all this even before the primaries ! Now I really have a bad feeling...

It's just one poll, Antonio.
He is really hated, you know ;).

Well, if I'm trying to convince you that he will lose, now... :P :D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 13, 2011, 03:18:58 PM
If things can improve so quickly for him, there's no doubt he has a fair chance to win. And all this even before the primaries ! Now I really have a bad feeling...

It's just one poll, Antonio.
He is really hated, you know ;).

Well, if I'm trying to convince you that he will lose, now... :P :D

That just means we're both diehard pessimists. ;D Yeah, of course it can be an outlier, but it can also be announcing a trend. We can't know for now...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on July 13, 2011, 04:04:19 PM
Well, a gradual trend is usually more solid than a strange unexpected big drift.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 13, 2011, 08:38:50 PM
My opinion is that he can win in the 1st. round, but he'll have to fight really hard to win in the 2nd round. Aubry may be a better candidate than Hollande. She seems to be more solid. I may be wrong, however. I'm the guy who likes Segolene ;)
But my favourite candidate is Valls (and yes, it's only because he was born in Spain)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 14, 2011, 05:56:41 AM
My opinion is that he can win in the 1st. round, but he'll have to fight really hard to win in the 2nd round. Aubry may be a better candidate than Hollande. She seems to be more solid. I may be wrong, however. I'm the guy who likes Segolene ;)
But my favourite candidate is Valls (and yes, it's only because he was born in Spain)

You don't really know what Valls thinks, eh ? ;)
Too rightist for you... ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 14, 2011, 08:43:08 AM
My opinion is that he can win in the 1st. round, but he'll have to fight really hard to win in the 2nd round. Aubry may be a better candidate than Hollande. She seems to be more solid. I may be wrong, however. I'm the guy who likes Segolene ;)
But my favourite candidate is Valls (and yes, it's only because he was born in Spain)

You don't really know what Valls thinks, eh ? ;)
Too rightist for you... ;D

I was only joking. But I wouldn't mind having a Spanish president in France.
I've supported rightist people too (not in Spain), like Eduardo Frei, Arlen Specter, Richard Lugar or Aecio Neves.
Valls is not as conservative as those 4 are.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 15, 2011, 02:42:37 PM
I've supported rightist people too (not in Spain), like Eduardo Frei, Arlen Specter, Richard Lugar or Aecio Neves.

This one isn't even funny. Even by European standards, Specter is not "rightist."


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: hawkeye59 on July 15, 2011, 04:14:14 PM
I've supported rightist people too (not in Spain), like Eduardo Frei, Arlen Specter, Richard Lugar or Aecio Neves.

This one isn't even funny. Even by European standards, Specter is not "rightist."
By a European standard, Bernie Sanders or Russ Feingold would be center-left. Specter is more center-right by European standards.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 15, 2011, 09:13:08 PM
I've supported rightist people too (not in Spain), like Eduardo Frei, Arlen Specter, Richard Lugar or Aecio Neves.

This one isn't even funny. Even by European standards, Specter is not "rightist."
By a European standard, Bernie Sanders or Russ Feingold would be center-left. Specter is more center-right by European standards.

Specter IS centre-right by European and American standards. No doubts. And Sanders is to the right of many "socialist" parties here in Europe.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 16, 2011, 01:38:42 AM
OpinionWay poll for LCI and Le Figaro, 13-15 July 2011, sample 1113 self-declared leftist people, out of a whole sample of 2715

Among leftists / among socialists / among those sure to vote
Hollande  42 / 45 / 46
Aubry 34 / 35 / 30
Royal 13 / 14 / 14
Montebourg 7 / 3 / 7
Valls 3 / 3 / 2
Baylet 1 / 0 / 1
no answer 13 / 5 / 1

The structure is coherent with other polls (the order of the candidates, Hollande stronger among socialists, Aubry and Montebourg stronger outside the PS),
but the levels don't reveal a rise from Aubry, here.

And Hollande has 2 other assets:
being stronger among those sure to vote
and being strong in the 2nd round:

Hollande 56 / 57 / 62
Aubry 44 / 43 / 38
no answer 17 / 9 / 5

Remember, though, that the sample of those sure to vote is tiny: 211.

Among those who vote in the first round:
Royal "gives" 39% to Hollande and 38% to Aubry,
Montebourg gives 40% to Hollande and 38% to Aubry,
Valls gives 59% to Hollande and 13% to Aubry.

Seems quite logical.

So, either OpinionWay, as a rightist pollster, has rounded up numbers in a pro-Hollande way, or Aubry's little rise, seen in some other polls, has already faded away.

In any case, the race remains close, though with a small lead for Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 16, 2011, 02:48:28 AM
I think the 60-40 probability you use in your tracker pretty much corresponds to the situation. Primary polls are rarely trustworthy, so even if Hollande is leading  by 10-15 points, basically everything can happen.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 19, 2011, 03:29:27 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #11 - 18 July 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. Boutin is in.
Poutou is now the NPA candidate and he keeps all the previous numbers for Besancenot, Martin and anonymous NPA candidate.
Joly is substituted to Hulot and keeps his previous numbers (though she was sometimes tested on her own, but that would alter the other candidates numbers, which would be unfair).
Pollsters haven't tested Nihous yet, which is a surprise as it'll be easier for him to gather the 500 signatures than for Dupont-Aignan, even Arthaud, Boutin or Chevènement.               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

18 July Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,21
Poutou   0,75
Mélenchon   5,71
Chevènement   0,23
Aubry   26,57
Joly   6,05
Bayrou   6,84
Borloo   8,10
Villepin   3,34
Boutin   0,46
Sarkozy   23,10
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   17,03
      


      

18 July Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,35
Poutou   0,58
Mélenchon   5,68
Chevènement   0,26
Hollande   28,64
Joly   6,13
Bayrou   6,59
Borloo   7,97
Villepin   2,96
Boutin   0,46
Sarkozy   22,63
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   16,14
      


      

18 July generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,30
Poutou   0,65
Mélenchon   5,69
Chevènement   0,25
PS   27,81
Joly   6,10
Bayrou   6,69
Borloo   8,02
Villepin   3,11
Boutin   0,46
Sarkozy   22,82
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   16,50
      

With more new polls this week, the tracker is "normalizing".
And it's still good for socialists.
The far-left is overall stable, though Arthaud is a bit on the rise, but Mélenchon is again down.
Joly is weak and Bayrou is down again.
Borloo is stalled but at a high level for Sarkozy's taste.

The only bad news for the PS is of course that Sarkozy has clearly surged a bit while Le Pen is now far behind him. All the other rightist candidates are too small to harm Sarkozy.

I hope there will be another poll before the "black hole" of August recess, but I'm not sure (math, any info about that ;) ?)

Otherwise, we'll have to wait for late August, with summer meetings of French parties, especially the socialist one at La Rochelle, where things can be more tense, and early September, when Hollande will be obliged to go to the police to answer some questions in the DSK-Banon affair, as it is now known.
Not that Hollande is at risk, but you know medias... if you play with your children with a plastic gun, you're probably a criminal, trafficking drugs... ::)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 20, 2011, 04:04:23 AM
Anyways, it's fun to see how the numbers keep moving. Let's see if there are other stunning polls this weak. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 22, 2011, 08:53:23 AM
IFOP poll for France Soir, 19-21 July 2011, 948 RVs out of a whole sample of 1002

Hollande is still strong, Aubry is weaker, Le Pen still high, Sarkozy not completely beaten, Joly marching towards the left, Nihous not even a statistical noise.

Hollande 28 / Aubry 25 / Royal 16
Sarkozy 23 / 23.5 / 25
Le Pen 20 / 20 / 20.5
Borloo 7.5 / 8 / 8.5
Bayrou 6.5 / 7.5 / 9
Joly 7 / 7 / 9.5
Mélenchon 4 / 4 / 6
Arthaud 0 / 0.5 / 0.5
Poutou 0 / 0.5 / 0.5
Chevènement 0.5 / 1 / 1
Villepin 2.5 / 2 / 3
Boutin 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Nihous 0 / 0 / 0
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0

Remember that Le Pen was always high in IFOP polls.

Astonishing tio see the far-left, including Mélenchon, very low, while Joly is back to Hulot's levels: probably an effect of her view on July 14th military parade.

Nihous is surprisingly low. But remember this is an Internet poll, so rural people are probably less numerous in the sample.

Borloo and Villepin are stable. Villepin is really down. Many people around him are leaving him, including Jacques Le Guen, deputy from Finistère (Hash knows him well).

Bayrou is a bit higher since a few weeks. Maybe some people who formerly supported Hulot.

What is better for Sarkozy and not so good for Aubry is the second round poll:

Hollande 57
Sarkozy 43

Aubry 53
Sarkozy 47

While Hollande was at 60 and Aubry at at least 58 since mid-May, this is a little bounce for Sarkozy, especially against Aubry.
57 is still a huge margin, but 53 begins to be dangerous.

Of course, that's only one poll.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 22, 2011, 10:01:21 AM
OK, I know the end of the movie.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 22, 2011, 04:09:17 PM

No, Sarko won't win this time. Aubry will.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on July 22, 2011, 04:22:45 PM
If Sarko does win, it'd be the fightback of a century. I don't think any incumbent president in France has been down this much less than a year out and managed to win.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 23, 2011, 04:29:20 PM
If Sarko does win, it'd be the fightback of a century. I don't think any incumbent president in France has been down this much less than a year out and managed to win.

Yeah, indeed, that would be.

A recent IPSOS poll which I didn't publish by laziness (;)) put people who don't want Sarkozy to be reelected at 60% (because, the left is almost unanimously against him and because there are too much defectors in the right: hence the fact that Aubry is a worse candidate, as she would re-mobilize rightist people around Sarkozy).

But, he is bouncing back a bit in "popularity" numbers (though I find this kind of polls completely useless to predict an election result; they are just a mood).

Don't worry so much, Antonio, he is really hated.
And well, leftist medias are very, very, very active. And leftist journalists inside "neutral" medias, too.

And there is one thing that can kill him forever before May 2012: Karachi bomb attack affair.
That would be a very BIG story.
And it could very well "explode" at the end of 2011 or in the beginning of 2012.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 23, 2011, 06:21:28 PM
I hope I'll be proven wrong, but so far I see all the signs of another "comeback of the hated guy" which are so frequent in France (see Mitterrand '88, Chirac '95 and '02, the right generally in '07).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on July 23, 2011, 07:05:55 PM
Mitterrand was actually popular by 1988 (not in 1986, though) and Chirac had decent approvals in 2002. Neither of them had approvals in the low 30s.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 24, 2011, 03:35:50 PM
I hope I'll be proven wrong, but so far I see all the signs of another "comeback of the hated guy" which are so frequent in France (see Mitterrand '88, Chirac '95 and '02, the right generally in '07).

Mitterrand 88 and Chirac 02 benefited from cohabitations.
Chirac 95 was almost in the opposition and Sarkozy 07 too ("la rupture").

Even in 1986, after a great comeback from the 1984 abyss, the left lost.
And 1995 didn't save the left after the 1993 abyss.

I remember the 1991-93 climate (Urba affair, Cresson's utter failure, Mitterrand's unfair sacking of Rocard, intricated affair of Carpentras cemetary, no intermediate elections in 1990-91 to let some pressure out, etc.): it was heavy against the left.

It's quite comparable in some respects against Sarkozy now, even though DSK has allowed the right to reduce a bit the threat, but only a bit.
Again, if "affairs" come back (Karachi is really dreadful for the right), Sarkozy is lost.
And without affairs, well, the path is really hard.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on July 25, 2011, 07:22:58 AM
Mitterrand was actually popular by 1988 (not in 1986, though) and Chirac had decent approvals in 2002. Neither of them had approvals in the low 30s.

Well, according to this graph based on TNS Sofres data, Mitterrand and Chirac were respectively at 57% and 45% in the month of July before the election. Even VGE was above 50%. Sarkozy approval is at 25%.  As Raffarin would say : "La pente est forte".

() (http://www.servimg.com/image_preview.php?i=177&u=11949248)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 25, 2011, 10:01:53 AM
Yeah.
And Sarkozy is even in worse situation when you look at other pollsters, as Chirac II is a bit less low than here.
And Chirac was very low in year+4 because we were in the middle of the CPE crisis... just some months after the rebellious suburbs exploded.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 25, 2011, 12:19:37 PM
Ok, my bad. I'm still not reassured, though.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 PM
against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a .ng good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose.

===offensive content removed===


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on July 25, 2011, 04:39:36 PM
I'm surprised you aren't predicting than your beloved Marine will win.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 PM
against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a .ng good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose.

Idiot.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on July 25, 2011, 04:44:58 PM
Well, what to expect from a FN lover?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 25, 2011, 05:27:39 PM
A French President with the last name Hollande. Would it get any worse for me?  :P



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 26, 2011, 05:45:58 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #12 - 25 July 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

25 July Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,11
Poutou   0,70
Mélenchon   5,25
Chevènement   0,39
Aubry   26,32
Joly   6,22
Bayrou   7,01
Borloo   8,13
Villepin   3,07
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,51
Sarkozy   23,29
Dupont-Aignan   0,58
Le Pen   17,42
      


      

25 July Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,12
Poutou   0,47
Mélenchon   5,24
Chevènement   0,29
Hollande   28,55
Joly   6,29
Bayrou   6,62
Borloo   7,95
Villepin   2,88
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,50
Sarkozy   22,79
Dupont-Aignan   0,58
Le Pen   16,73
      


      

25 July generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,12
Poutou   0,56
Mélenchon   5,25
Chevènement   0,33
PS   27,65
Joly   6,26
Bayrou   6,77
Borloo   8,02
Villepin   2,96
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,50
Sarkozy   22,99
Dupont-Aignan   0,58
Le Pen   17,00



This is the interest of a tracker: while we've got some quite different polls with various trends, the overall result is pretty stable.

So, no big news in the tracker, even with one new poll this week.

I'm afraid we now won't have any more poll before something like the 25th of August.
We'll see.      


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Iannis on July 26, 2011, 08:48:45 AM
against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a .ng good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose.

Idiot.

Idiot. You may be glad with what happened in Norway, probably. People like you really suck. I'm sorry to be that clear, but that's the truth. See what happened in Norway. There're some radicals who believe socialists are muslims and will do whatever they can to "stop" them.

Has anyone said that Aubry and socialists should be killed? Is it permitted to be, let's say, "radical" complaining of a multicultural society or muslim influence and presence without thinking of slaughters and without being blamed of sympathy with Breivik? I hope, because freddom of speech is important, and at the same time I wouldn't like to see anti-americanists, anti-israeli movements to be accused to be Al Qaeda supporters, for instance.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 26, 2011, 01:16:35 PM
Has anyone said that Aubry and socialists should be killed? Is it permitted to be, let's say, "radical" complaining of a multicultural society or muslim influence and presence without thinking of slaughters and without being blamed of sympathy with Breivik? I hope, because freddom of speech is important, and at the same time I wouldn't like to see anti-americanists, anti-israeli movements to be accused to be Al Qaeda supporters, for instance.

he's not saying we should kill socialists. But a radical who reads "aubry has connections with the Islam" may think he must do anything to save France from the muslims.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 26, 2011, 02:04:18 PM
Wow, I expected to see Sarko higher this week. But it's true there has been only one poll...


It will be atrocious to wait until September... :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on July 26, 2011, 07:31:14 PM
Has anyone said that Aubry and socialists should be killed? Is it permitted to be, let's say, "radical" complaining of a multicultural society or muslim influence and presence without thinking of slaughters and without being blamed of sympathy with Breivik? I hope, because freddom of speech is important, and at the same time I wouldn't like to see anti-americanists, anti-israeli movements to be accused to be Al Qaeda supporters, for instance.

It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on July 26, 2011, 08:11:10 PM
Has anyone said that Aubry and socialists should be killed? Is it permitted to be, let's say, "radical" complaining of a multicultural society or muslim influence and presence without thinking of slaughters and without being blamed of sympathy with Breivik? I hope, because freddom of speech is important, and at the same time I wouldn't like to see anti-americanists, anti-israeli movements to be accused to be Al Qaeda supporters, for instance.

I invite you to read the rules of the "International Elections" board. They are slighly different of the general rules. Time showed than those rules needed, to keep an agreeable atmosphere on this board.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Foucaulf on July 26, 2011, 10:42:44 PM
Going back to French politics, I have been thinking a lot about this article in which Hollande warns of the PS "disappearing" if it does not win the Presidency. (http://www.lemonde.fr/primaire-parti-socialiste/article/2011/07/26/hollande-le-ps-devra-gagner-en-2012-sous-peine-de-disparaitre_1553039_1471072.html)

I'm not sure if he's being hyperbolic here. From what I know of North America, political parties here alternate between long spells of power and opposition, but survives so long as they don't collapse after greatly extending their stay. In France power is obviously concentrated in the President, but is the opposition really stripped of all power past the five-year elections? Or is it that the party will tear itself up and leave the left bickering amongst itself, like what it was before Mitterrand?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 27, 2011, 03:25:06 AM
Going back to French politics, I have been thinking a lot about this article in which Hollande warns of the PS "disappearing" if it does not win the Presidency. (http://www.lemonde.fr/primaire-parti-socialiste/article/2011/07/26/hollande-le-ps-devra-gagner-en-2012-sous-peine-de-disparaitre_1553039_1471072.html)

I'm not sure if he's being hyperbolic here. From what I know of North America, political parties here alternate between long spells of power and opposition, but survives so long as they don't collapse after greatly extending their stay. In France power is obviously concentrated in the President, but is the opposition really stripped of all power past the five-year elections? Or is it that the party will tear itself up and leave the left bickering amongst itself, like what it was before Mitterrand?

Nowadays, a great party doesn't disappear so quickly in France, for one big reason: money.
Public money is given to the party based on his electoral results, especially in the legislative elections that follow the presidential one.
So, harsh bickering inside the party, yes, complete explosion, no.

Oh, sure, some loonies like Royal or complete outsiders like Valls or Gérard Collomb could leave the party, but that's all.
Remember the great success of Chevènement creating his own party ?
Remember the great success of Bockel creating his own party ? Without Sarkozy giving him a portfolio, he'd be nothing, and without Bockel taking profit from Borloo's noises, he'd again be nothing now.
See the great success of Mélenchon outside the party ? Yes he has some support, but what is his added value to the PCF ? 3% at most, in the good days.

Conversely, look at how it's difficult for some centrists (Méhaignerie and even Daubresse, though a Borloo's friend) or radicals (Léonetti) to leave the UMP.
Even weakened the UMP won't explode either. Some small parties may appear close to him, but that's all.

Only someone who would be extraordinarily popular outside the parties may provoke a big one to disappear. I see nobody like this and I think the times aren't for a de Gaulle any longer.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 27, 2011, 05:47:24 AM
Fab is right, established parties rarely die out in the French political system. There will always be a support for one of the two big one by people who fear the other could win. Add to that the fact that, after being in opposition for 10 year, the PS dominates as never before the sub-national entities (holding nearly every big city, over 60/100 departements and 21/22 regions ; hell, it might even take the Senate, for the first time ever !).


The point is not whether Umengus supports Breivik or not, I don't see why this was even brought. The point is that his statement is utterly false and only based on nasty rumours.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 27, 2011, 09:54:59 AM
There will always be a party in France that is rooted in a left-wing interpretation of France's Republican traditions and has few organic links to traditional working class politics outside a couple of random areas here and there, but which is nonetheless a member of the SI and which combines unusually radical rhetoric for an SI party with very timid policies (though which will occasionally implement something very radical; but, alas, that policy will either be disastrous or will not work towards its intended goal). And now that Communism is dead as a political movement, it will always be the largest party on the Left by default. It is impossible to imagine French politics (or even France) without it. Does it matter whether it's called SFIO, PS or something else? Hollande is just being over-dramatic because he's taken a hit recently.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 27, 2011, 09:57:35 AM
Fab is right, established parties rarely die out in the French political system. There will always be a support for one of the two big one by people who fear the other could win. Add to that the fact that, after being in opposition for 10 year, the PS dominates as never before the sub-national entities (holding nearly every big city, over 60/100 departements and 21/22 regions ; hell, it might even take the Senate, for the first time ever !).

Yeah, it's become a local government party again. Except that local government in France actually has a few teeth now and there isn't a large rival local government party on the Left these days.

Quote
The point is not whether Umengus supports Breivik or not, I don't see why this was even brought. The point is that his statement is utterly false and only based on nasty rumours.

Quite so. We could do without that kind of post here, frankly.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 27, 2011, 12:54:58 PM
Just a couple of posts have been deleted and a few more modified (mainly to remove quotes). It would be for the best if this particular discussed ceased, I think. Will also note that Umengus's deleted post included a vehement denial of sympathy with Breivik. Seems fair to let that point stand for the record.

---

Moving on now...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on July 28, 2011, 07:21:43 AM
As for Hollande's interview, I think it's a mistake from him.
Of course, he hasn't said exactly what medias are reporting (as usual... see Fillon's speech on Joly...) (Hollande talked about a "risk" of disappearing, not that it will disappear if it loses), but the word "disappearing" won't please the socialist base.
Fortunately for him, it's late in July... and nobody is listening.

Baylet is saying that Harlem Désir, interim first secretary of the PS, hasn't understood that the primary is a left one, not a socialist one.
Baylet isn't invited to PS summer "univeristy" in La Rochelle...
I don't think Baylet will have a great impact. If he is candidate until the vote... A big "if", I think, as his only aim seems to make a lil' mess to negotiate as many constituencies as possible from the PS. Yeah, remember that the Greens are ambitious now and that Mélenchon is far more difficult to please than the old PCF apparatus... So, the PRG faces a huge competition from the rest of the left...
And if Baylet keeps campaigning until the first round of the primaries, he'll probably steal 1 or 2 points from Hollande, which isn't good news for the latter, as the results may well be in a very narrow margin.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on July 28, 2011, 11:47:09 AM
It will be atrocious to wait until September... :(

It seems Ifop will release a poll next tuesday, but I don't know if it will concern the primaries or the presidential election itself.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 02, 2011, 10:40:50 AM
IFOP poll for France-Soir, 21-29 July 2011, 565 self-declared socialists among 1093 self-declared leftists among a whole sample of 1956

Among leftists/among socialists
Hollande 42 / 48
Aubry 34 / 36

Royal 13 / 9
Valls 4 / 2
Montebourg 4 / 2
Baylet 1 / 1
none of them 2 / 2

Roughly, we are back to the situation immediately after DSK fell and when Hollande became the favourite. This is good news for Hollande as Aubry hasn't surged very long.
But maybe it's again too early for Hollande to re-surge :P.

Second round:
Hollande 55 / 58
Aubry 45 / 52

Among leftists, it's the highest result ever of Hollande. Among socialists, it's back to the period just before Aubry's candidacy.
Good news for Hollande again, especially as he is still higher among socialists than among the whole left: socialists are likelier to vote.


Sorry for the tracker, but I'm really on holiday, so it'll come when I'm bored ;D.




Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 03, 2011, 05:58:43 AM
Wednesday and still no tracker... Shame on you, Fab ! :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 03, 2011, 09:14:21 AM
Wednesday and still no tracker... Shame on you, Fab ! :P

I'm not really pushed by the tempo of your graphs ;).
Well, I was riding this morning and I'm going to swim this afternoon and it was one of my son's birthday at lunchtime: I'm really busy, you know ;D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 04, 2011, 05:10:19 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #13 - 1 August 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

1 August Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,12
Poutou   0,67
Mélenchon   5,13
Chevènement   0,41
Aubry   26,31
Joly   6,19
Bayrou   7,04
Borloo   8,14
Villepin   3,01
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,55
Sarkozy   23,49
Dupont-Aignan   0,59
Le Pen   17,36
      


      

1 August Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,11
Poutou   0,44
Mélenchon   5,14
Chevènement   0,28
Hollande   28,50
Joly   6,25
Bayrou   6,67
Borloo   7,99
Villepin   2,86
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,53
Sarkozy   22,95
Dupont-Aignan   0,59
Le Pen   16,69

      


      

1 August generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,11
Poutou   0,53
Mélenchon   5,14
Chevènement   0,33
PS   27,62
Joly   6,22
Bayrou   6,82
Borloo   8,05
Villepin   2,92
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,54
Sarkozy   23,16
Dupont-Aignan   0,59
Le Pen   16,96




No big change, with no new poll.

The only slightly significant move is from Le Pen to Sarkozy.

Basically, we are close to the 1988 result, with Barre's electorate split between Borloo, Villepin and Bayrou.
And, of course, the problem for Sarkozy is that HE is the incumbent...

And here is the tracker for 2nd round hypotheses, from the 13th of June to the 1st of August:

Aubry   57,75   57,76   57,79   57,86   58,00   58,00   55,08   54,99
Sarkozy   42,25   42,24   42,21   42,14   42,00   42,00   44,92   45,01

Hollande   59,97   59,98   59,98   59,99   60,00   58,00   57,42   57,40
Sarkozy   40,03   40,02   40,02   40,01   40,00   42,00   42,58   42,60

Beware, though, we have only 5 polls on second rounds on the entire period... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 06, 2011, 10:24:22 AM
If you update it at due time next Monday, you'll get the monthly graph. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 08, 2011, 10:21:02 AM
>:( >:( >:( >:(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 08, 2011, 05:07:39 PM

Too sunny around here... ;)

BTW, you haven't waited for midnight (CET) ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 08, 2011, 05:23:20 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #14 - 8 August 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

8 August Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,10
Poutou   0,63
Mélenchon   5,00
Chevènement   0,44
Aubry   26,23
Joly   6,13
Bayrou   7,11
Borloo   8,10
Villepin   2,93
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,58
Sarkozy   23,69
Dupont-Aignan   0,60
Le Pen   17,45
      


      

8 August Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,08
Poutou   0,39
Mélenchon   5,02
Chevènement   0,30
Hollande   28,38
Joly   6,20
Bayrou   6,75
Borloo   7,98
Villepin   2,83
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,56
Sarkozy   23,11
Dupont-Aignan   0,60
Le Pen   16,80


      


      

8 August generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,09
Poutou   0,49
Mélenchon   5,01
Chevènement   0,36
PS   27,52
Joly   6,17
Bayrou   6,89
Borloo   8,03
Villepin   2,87
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,57
Sarkozy   23,34
Dupont-Aignan   0,60
Le Pen   17,06





No big change, with no new poll.

Le Pen slightly on the rise again, but she is now far below Sarkozy who is almost in good shape in comparison to his popularity ratings.

Still a 2 points difference between Hollande and Aubry: the PS should really think about this: it's pretty stable and it's also the case in the second round.



23 minutes late, Antonio: be merciful, O Good Lord ! ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 08, 2011, 05:24:36 PM
BTW, I'm really worried by your green avatar...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 09, 2011, 04:13:08 AM
Well, it could have been worse. ;) Let me the time to update everything, and I'll give you the graphs...


BTW, I'm really worried by your green avatar...

I've lost all hope in Obama and in democrats after the debt "deal" (once again giving up everything to the crazies). These guys don't represent what I stand for, they're just the GOP's useful idiots. The green party is useless, but at least somewhat matches my political views.

I, on the other hand, still don't get why you wear the avatar of a bunch of brainless, bigoted hacks who would gladly screw their country just to piss off Obama. ???


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 09, 2011, 08:16:02 AM
As promised ! :)

Aubry :
()

Hollande :
()


Clearly one is stronger as the other, but apart from Sarko and the PS candidates the variations seem mostly statistical noise.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 09, 2011, 10:42:04 AM
Well, it could have been worse. ;) Let me the time to update everything, and I'll give you the graphs...


BTW, I'm really worried by your green avatar...

I've lost all hope in Obama and in democrats after the debt "deal" (once again giving up everything to the crazies). These guys don't represent what I stand for, they're just the GOP's useful idiots. The green party is useless, but at least somewhat matches my political views.

I, on the other hand, still don't get why you wear the avatar of a bunch of brainless, bigoted hacks who would gladly screw their country just to piss off Obama. ???

Ah yes... we've both forgotten that my blue avatar is French and your red one was American !!! :P

You know that I'm closer to Lieberman, Clark, Nunn or Warner or even Gore.
I could vote for Romney, but I'm sure that, in 2008, I'd have voted for Obama (because of Palin) and note for the Mac...

No, don't worry, I'm not a tea-partier ! (and Boutin isn't a tea-partier either ;D).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 09, 2011, 10:49:30 AM
As promised ! :)

Aubry :
()

Hollande :
()


Clearly one is stronger as the other, but apart from Sarko and the PS candidates the variations seem mostly statistical noise.

I don't entirely agree: there is a trend for Hulot-Joly and Villepin, and there was something towards Mélenchon and then backwards (though I don't understand what :P).

The socialists are really good at the moment, though Sarkozy is in a surprisingly good shape.

This new story with the public debt crisis and a new stock exchange krach is good for Sarkozy, sure, but Hollande has well reacted: he is again serious and swift. Of course, nobody is listening in early August, but Aubry is badly silent (or contra tempore, with an article in Libération that was written before S&P's stupid decision).

I don't understand why Sarkozy hasn't planned a referendum on the new budgetary rules... It seems that a UMP congressman has a t last proposed it.
The trap for the left would be very good.
Of course, there would be the risk of a 2005 scenario: the "people" against the elite. Good for Mélenchon but for Panzergirl too.

Anyway, fine graphs again, though a bit more suspense would be good ;D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 09, 2011, 10:59:06 AM
Quote
I don't entirely agree: there is a trend for Hulot-Joly and Villepin, and there was something towards Mélenchon and then backwards (though I don't understand what :P).

No, I meant the comparison between one graph and the other. All candidates are slightly higher in the Aubry scenario (except Joly) but only marginally so.

There is certainly something going on politically, with all these talks about the debt crisis and all (BTW, I've heard in italian news that some rating agencies were considering to downgrade France, but apparently that wasn't reported in France so far...). But we can't see what exactly is going on because those lazy pollsters are on vacation. That's horribly frustrating. :P

Hopefully when the actual campaign aproaches we'll switch back to themes like unemployment or fiscality...


Well, it could have been worse. ;) Let me the time to update everything, and I'll give you the graphs...


BTW, I'm really worried by your green avatar...

I've lost all hope in Obama and in democrats after the debt "deal" (once again giving up everything to the crazies). These guys don't represent what I stand for, they're just the GOP's useful idiots. The green party is useless, but at least somewhat matches my political views.

I, on the other hand, still don't get why you wear the avatar of a bunch of brainless, bigoted hacks who would gladly screw their country just to piss off Obama. ???

Ah yes... we've both forgotten that my blue avatar is French and your red one was American !!! :P

You know that I'm closer to Lieberman, Clark, Nunn or Warner or even Gore.
I could vote for Romney, but I'm sure that, in 2008, I'd have voted for Obama (because of Palin) and note for the Mac...

No, don't worry, I'm not a tea-partier ! (and Boutin isn't a tea-partier either ;D).

Yeah, I knew you meant this as "UMP-FR", but, you know, it actually says "R". ;D Of course you don't fit the GOP's mainstream at all. Fortunately.

As for me becoming a French greenie... ::)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on August 09, 2011, 11:08:19 AM
I don't know what's with this staunch hatred of the French Greens as if they were some evil party. Sure, they're not perfect, they've acted either as irrational far-left hippiecommies or as the PS's National Parks Division, and sometimes they're full of it and act like idiots; but they're one of the most decent parties/least sucky parties in France. By the admittedly low standards of French parties, they're the only ones who are worth a damn. And of the major parties, they're the only one which actually see decentralization going beyond giving $4 to build a park in some dump.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 09, 2011, 11:14:32 AM
I don't know what's with this staunch hatred of the French Greens as if they were some evil party. Sure, they're not perfect, they've acted either as irrational far-left hippiecommies or as the PS's National Parks Division, and sometimes they're full of it and act like idiots; but they're one of the most decent parties/least sucky parties in France. By the admittedly low standards of French parties, they're the only ones who are worth a damn. And of the major parties, they're the only one which actually see decentralization going beyond giving $4 to build a park in some dump.

I don't hate the French greens, far from that. That's just not the kind of party I see myself joining.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 09, 2011, 04:55:04 PM
I don't know what's with this staunch hatred of the French Greens as if they were some evil party. Sure, they're not perfect, they've acted either as irrational far-left hippiecommies or as the PS's National Parks Division, and sometimes they're full of it and act like idiots; but they're one of the most decent parties/least sucky parties in France. By the admittedly low standards of French parties, they're the only ones who are worth a damn. And of the major parties, they're the only one which actually see decentralization going beyond giving $4 to build a park in some dump.

I don't hate the French greens, far from that. That's just not the kind of party I see myself joining.

We can say that I almost hate them ;D. I don't deny it.

Maybe it's because I have really "practiced" them in Paris some years ago: they were so intolerant, so inhumane in day-to-day work, really... and so utterly ideological and unrealistic (that's not a caricature)... Delanoë (a man that I really dislike) hasn't made the same mistake during his second term: he wasn't forced to give them big portfolios and he sidelined them...

This personal experience, and their positioning on society problems, it's of course too much for me.

Now, politically and electorally speaking, they are in fact misunderstood and, when they win, it's by default. Many people in France still think they are just here to avoid pollution and fight against hunters...
The party is far more on the left than its electorate (though Joly may well find a better coherence between the two, in a way).

Cohn-Bendit is the only one who tried to make them grow up, but it seems as though they are unable to do it.
With a rejuvenated PS and a less aggressive Parti de Gauche, no need for Greens. :P

As for decentralization, that's indeed a real specific point.
But if a European and regionalist party emerges in the center-right with Borloo, they could be stripped from this specificity !
Errr... yeah, I know, no chance at all, eh ? ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 12, 2011, 04:00:54 PM
For the first time, Aubry has called for Daddy (Jacques Delors).
He will be in a sort of studying group on economic and financial crisis...

So, already panic mode for Aubry ?
Well, even if nobody listens in August, Hollande has been indoubtedly better in the last week: his reaction seemed serious and well-informed, swift and quiet at the same time.
She was late and wrote things already out-of-date a week ago.

I think she is wrong to waste Big Dad so early.
She must wait a bit for Hollande to make a mistake or two. He is the one whose fall every media will wait for, now.
The PS "summer university" in La Rochelle may well be better for Aubry, as the apparatus is still controlled by her close friends.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 15, 2011, 09:06:34 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #15 - 15 August 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

15 August Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,06
Poutou   0,58
Mélenchon   4,92
Chevènement   0,48
Aubry   26,21
Joly   6,11
Bayrou   7,10
Borloo   8,06
Villepin   2,83
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,61
Sarkozy   23,80
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   17,62
      


      

15 August Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,04
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   4,95
Chevènement   0,32
Hollande   28,33
Joly   6,19
Bayrou   6,77
Borloo   7,91
Villepin   2,77
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,58
Sarkozy   23,19
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   17,02
      


      

15 August generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,05
Poutou   0,43
Mélenchon   4,94
Chevènement   0,38
PS   27,48
Joly   6,16
Bayrou   6,90
Borloo   7,97
Villepin   2,80
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,59
Sarkozy   23,43
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   17,26


Only statistical noise this week.
Unfortunately, it will be worse next week :P.
Pollsters are asleep, polled people on beaches and political maniacs are angry.

Le Point has a funny article on people said to support Aubry in Lozère whereas they support Hollande.
In fact, all the formerly "frêchist" federations are supporting Hollande it seems.
And this is these federations which now accuse Aubryst of shenanigans and manipulations... !

In fact, no socialist has really been courageous enough to tackle the Frêche problem until the very end. And Aubry, like the others (Hollande especially) have never seriously tried to tackle the Marseilles problem either.

The only one who is coherent on this is Montebourg and you see how successful he is currently inside the party :P.

Anyway, this support of Languedoc-Roussillon local PS federations for Hollande is a big thing, as the turnout there may be high and as they were more Royal supporters in the past (by default in a way).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 15, 2011, 01:46:32 PM
Fab, when does the last poll we've had date back to ? I wonder when we would theoretically run out of data if no new poll comes. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 16, 2011, 07:51:52 AM
We have still 5 polls in our database, but in 2 weeks, we'll have only one :P.

Yeah, potentially, there will be one week with only one poll... sigh...
(but no risk to have zero poll, as pollsters will be back to business just before September I think)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 17, 2011, 06:23:41 AM
I don't know what's with this staunch hatred of the French Greens as if they were some evil party. Sure, they're not perfect, they've acted either as irrational far-left hippiecommies or as the PS's National Parks Division, and sometimes they're full of it and act like idiots; but they're one of the most decent parties/least sucky parties in France. By the admittedly low standards of French parties, they're the only ones who are worth a damn. And of the major parties, they're the only one which actually see decentralization going beyond giving $4 to build a park in some dump.

I don't hate the French greens, far from that. That's just not the kind of party I see myself joining.

We can say that I almost hate them ;D. I don't deny it.

Maybe it's because I have really "practiced" them in Paris some years ago: they were so intolerant, so inhumane in day-to-day work, really... and so utterly ideological and unrealistic (that's not a caricature)... Delanoë (a man that I really dislike) hasn't made the same mistake during his second term: he wasn't forced to give them big portfolios and he sidelined them...

This personal experience, and their positioning on society problems, it's of course too much for me.

Now, politically and electorally speaking, they are in fact misunderstood and, when they win, it's by default. Many people in France still think they are just here to avoid pollution and fight against hunters...
The party is far more on the left than its electorate (though Joly may well find a better coherence between the two, in a way).

Cohn-Bendit is the only one who tried to make them grow up, but it seems as though they are unable to do it.
With a rejuvenated PS and a less aggressive Parti de Gauche, no need for Greens. :P

As for decentralization, that's indeed a real specific point.
But if a European and regionalist party emerges in the center-right with Borloo, they could be stripped from this specificity !
Errr... yeah, I know, no chance at all, eh ? ;)


http://www.liberation.fr/politiques/01012354582-carnet-de-deroute-du-camp-hulot

An interesting article in Libération with an account from someone inside the Hulot campaign.
Of course, he is more favourable towards Hulot, but he also criticizes him.

And, what is important is about Mamère, Farbias, Coronado, all those old "Green Khmers": that what I wanted to underline when I talked about the very bad side of the Greens.

(BTW, funny to see the name of this guy: Orphelin ! LOL)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on August 18, 2011, 11:35:14 AM
We have still 5 polls in our database, but in 2 weeks, we'll have only one :P.

Yeah, potentially, there will be one week with only one poll... sigh...
(but no risk to have zero poll, as pollsters will be back to business just before September I think)

Don't worry, one poll will be published next Thursday. Not from the best pollster, but...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 18, 2011, 12:25:36 PM
We have still 5 polls in our database, but in 2 weeks, we'll have only one :P.

Yeah, potentially, there will be one week with only one poll... sigh...
(but no risk to have zero poll, as pollsters will be back to business just before September I think)

Don't worry, one poll will be published next Thursday. Not from the best pollster, but...

Great ! Even if it's Harris, LH2, BVA, CSA, we'll be happy ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 18, 2011, 03:45:47 PM
The problem is that such poll will crush all others in terms of ponderation and we'll see sudden and enormous swings... If it's an outlier, it will screw the tracker for a long time...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 19, 2011, 07:37:43 AM
The problem is that such poll will crush all others in terms of ponderation and we'll see sudden and enormous swings... If it's an outlier, it will screw the tracker for a long time...

Just until the second week of September: afterwards, it'll be normalized until the end.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 20, 2011, 04:25:41 AM
Where's the poll in question ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 21, 2011, 03:51:12 PM
ViaVoice poll for Libération, 18-19 August 2011, sample 1003

Do you wish left's victory ?
Yes 53
No 37

Do you forecast left's victory if the election were today ?
Yes 52
No 38

Though the last question is weird (forecast but for today :P), this high level, equal to wishes in fact, is a very strong point for the left.
Anti-sarkozysm is very well entrenched. I don't see how Sarkozy can win.

All the more when you see this:

Would left do better than right in face of the crisis ?
Not better 62
Better 29
(again, a weird question, when you can't answer "worse" :P, but that would only reinforce the result)

Do you wish X's victory or not ?
Hollande 47 / 50
Aubry 39 / 58
Sarkozy 29 / 68
Bayrou 25 / 71
Borloo 22 / 71
Royal 22 / 75
Villepin 20 / 75
Le Pen 17 / 81
Joly 14 / 79
Valls 13 / 71
Mélenchon 11 / 75
Montebourg 10 / 75

Rejection of smaller candidates is amazing, comapred to Sarkozy's level ! (Borloo, MValls, Montebourg and especially Joly, really very high in negatives)

Of course, the main result is that the socialist duet seems really difficult to beat for Sarkozy and, again and again, Hollande is clearly higher than Aubry.
She had 2 weeks of glory in late June, early July, and has returned to worse levels or simply stood by since then, while Hollande has kept going up, maintaining the gap between them.

Some Aubry's aides are beginning to say that polls are false: they are among people outside the party... but "make no mistake, among those who will really vote, she is far better and even higher than Hollande".
Well, sure, but, consistently, Hollande has been better among "socialists" than among "leftists". And, well, I believed these primaries should have been wide open :P !
After all, polls of 2006 were pretty accurate about Royal's rise inside the PS.
Of course, one can argue that the polls created the phenomenon, not that the rise was first and the polls second... but it's political reality and momentum that count.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 22, 2011, 03:52:03 AM
So this is not an actual presidential poll, merely some weird and not particularly useful questions. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 22, 2011, 04:18:38 AM
I've already posted some of them and, well, wishes of victory (and differences with forecasts) are usually good predictors of real results.
The problem is indeed that this poll is quite disappointing in its structure. Some young recruits trying to keep working in August, while big bosses are on the beaches ? ;D



Amazing to hear French medias (especially TVs and radios: it's not about political trend of each media, just about their level of smear-loving) still asking how the possible drop of (penal) charges against DSK could have an impact on PS primaries.

As rightist, I'd be very glad if DSK could put a little mess of his own, but, come on, let's be serious: Hollande and Aubry are now engaged in a duel and almost all leftist voters want only to kill Sarkozy and very well know that DSK is definitely out...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 22, 2011, 04:28:01 AM
We can say what we want about DSK, but he's intelligent enough to know the best thing he can do regarding French politics nowadays is to shut up. If he does that and if he's clearly innocented (hopefully no for lack of evidence) of the Banon affair as well, he could still play an important role in a PS government. The left needs competent economists like him.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on August 22, 2011, 05:32:41 AM
So this is not an actual presidential poll, merely some weird and not particularly useful questions. :P

Don't worry,your long-awaited presidential poll is slowly coming. Thursday I think. And there will be some other primary polls this week, hope they will be more interesting than the Viavoice stuff.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 23, 2011, 03:49:08 AM
Why can't PS leaders shut up about DSK ?

Now, it's like he is a "virgin" again... Well, if you believe Vance Junior is right to drop charges, you should believe him when he says there has been sexual relations and these were likely not wanted by one side...
Frankly, I feel people (and many leftists and socialists too) are now really fed up with this story and with DSK: the backlash may be here for the PS, with the medias trying to keep on this dirty story which they think still help them to sell and so exerting pressure on socialist leaders to speak and speak again about DSK and his poor lil' family.

But why do they agree to be a part of the medias' game (yesterday, some said it was the most important news of the day, above Libya... sigh...) ?
I understand for loony Michèle Sabban or even for loyal Pupponi. I can even understand for Cambadélis, for bad reasons, as what we call a "betrayal" must be hard for him to swallow when he meets DSK again... :P
But Aubry, Désir, Fabius, Le Guen, Royal, even Hollande (though, again, he is far more careful than Aubry) ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 23, 2011, 04:22:45 AM
I've really not heard them a lot on this topic. And I think that, barring another upset, the "affair" will now finally fade away and we'll get back on more political topics (the Balanced Budget Amendment, the senatorials aproaching, etc...).

Also, where is your tracker ? :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 23, 2011, 05:07:21 AM
My tracker tonight :P
I'm back to work and a bit busy...

First numbers from a Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 17-22 August 2011, sample 1320 RVs

Among leftists / among socialists:
Hollande 42 / 49
Aubry 28 / 30
Royal 9 / 7
Montebourg 5 / ?
Valls 5 / ?
Baylet ? / ?

To be continued... but, Hollande already appears as still gaining ground against both Aubry and Royal (who is now below double-digits :P).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: republicanism on August 23, 2011, 05:57:32 AM

May be a stupid demand, but I didn't pay much attention on French politics the last years: Please explain to me what the political spectrum on the left of the PS looks like these days.

I know that there used to be two relatively strong Trotskyist parties, but one of them joined the new Parti de Gauche, I think.
And what is the "Parti de Gauche" like at all? Who supports the party? And how are the relations between the PdG and the PCF? I remember that they "united" their lists in the regional elections 2010 in a few regions, right?

And will all of the parties on the left of the PS run their own candidates, or is there some ambition to field a candidate supported by several parties?

Thanks in advance.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 23, 2011, 06:28:11 AM
The Parti de Gauche is Mélenchon's personal outfit, which has no existence outside of him. It allied with the PCF since 2009 (with a few other random outfits) in a permanent coalition called "Front de Gauche". Basically, the deal between them is give the candidacy to Mélenchon, leave the constituencies to the PCF. Communists bring Mélenchon the party machine necessary to run a campaign, and hope to exploit his charisma in order to regain some ground (or not lose too much) in the French political scene.

The two neotrotskyst parties are the NPA (Besancenot's party created in 2009, which didn't meet as much success as expected and is now totally fading away since Besancenot has announced he won't run in 2012) and LO (Laguiller's old outfit, was never particularly relevant and won't be in 2012 either). None of them are allied with the FG.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on August 23, 2011, 09:06:44 AM
I know that there used to be two relatively strong Trotskyist parties, but one of them joined the new Parti de Gauche, I think.
And what is the "Parti de Gauche" like at all? Who supports the party? And how are the relations between the PdG and the PCF? I remember that they "united" their lists in the regional elections 2010 in a few regions, right?

And will all of the parties on the left of the PS run their own candidates, or is there some ambition to field a candidate supported by several parties?

Thanks in advance.

The PG is basically a personalist outfit run by Mélenchon with hardly anybody of note in there except maybe ex-Green deputy Martine Billard who nobody cares about anyways. The only reason it exists is because Mélenchon has charisma and because the PCF props it up as an ally. It is ironic that the PCF is responsible for the PG's continued existence as a serious party, yet in some way the PG is emerging as the strongest force of the FG against the PCF thanks to Mélenchon being a charismatic figure and all. The PCF Politburo has endorsed Mélenchon's candidacy because he is their only guarantee for a good result, which in turn increases the PCF's worth to the PS' eyes and allows them to whore themselves to the PS to get a deal for the legislative elections. The PCF Politburo knows they couldn't do so without him, because their leader Pierre Laurent is a boring Kremlin apparatchik who would run the party into the ground if he ran himself. Though the Orthodox wing of the PCF doesn't like Mélenchon because they fear he will sabotage the party and take it all over (which is quite possible, of course). But most Orthodoxes in the PCF are raving mad anyways.

The trots are divided between the NPA - Besancenot's stupid party and the old LO - which is waiting for the Second Coming of Leon Trotsky. The NPA might have done well in 2009, but Besancenot ran the party into the ground by acting like an entitled douche and running his party like the CPSU. His refusal to enter any alliance with the parliamentary left has also doomed him, and led to the scission of Christian Picquet's GU faction which integrated the FG. His decision not to run will further run the NPA into the ground and reduce the French Trots, quite strong since '95 or so, to their 60s-70s pitiful state. Meanwhile, the LO has lost its historic leader and is now led by her young clone, Nathalie Arthaud, who is a boring stale, unfunny joke who appears on telly every now and then to talk about the revolution and defending les travailleurs, travailleuses.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 23, 2011, 09:16:32 AM
NPA was said to go beyond the old LCR (Krivine's and Besancenot's party), but is now basically reduced to Krivine's old results.
LCR was more or less a "68" trotskyism, from young students who wanted to have an ideological reference to pin on their "bobo" and postmodern rebellion (some others became so-called Maoïsts, others "situationnistes" and some others just Greens).

LO was more a real trotskyite party, though the most loyal to IVth Internationale's ideas was the PCI of Lambert (Boussel was his real name) and then Gluckstein.
LO had good results only because Laguiller eventually did well on TV. It was the same for Besancenot.

LO will have Nathalie Arthaud, a teacher, as a presidential candidate. NPA will have Philippe Poutou, a trade-unionist worker. Both are in fact unoriginal far-leftists, not at all trotskyists.

The PG also gained some former supporters of Chevènement (François Autain, senator) and some trade-unionists (Claude Debons, from the CFDT's left), but not much, and a minority of former LCR which push the idea of unity of all trends at the left of the PS (it was the "unitaire" wing of LCR around Christian Picquet). Let's add also that Martine Billard, a former Green deputy from Paris has joined the PG.
But Mélenchon has been unable to rally the whole movement of Chevènement, or "red-greens" like Clémentine Autain, or the whole left of the PS (of course not in the case of Emmanuelli and Hamon, but even not Quilès or Lienemann).

Mélenchon will be the candidate of the PG and the PCF, and the whole FG.

The former "lambertiste" PCI, now POI, will probably try to have again Gérard Schivardi as a presidential candidate (though gathering 500 signatures from mayors will be very hard). But again, it's more now a "classical" far-leftist movement, against economic liberalism, against globalization, against the USA, against the EU, etc. Nothing fundamentally trostkyist is left here.

As usual, everybody talks about "unity", but nobody really wants it if it means no candidate from their own party... LO has always been completely and fiercely independent. The POI too.
Besancenot, despite his image, has never really tried to be unitarian.
And Mélenchon is too megalomaniac to drop.

So, Arthaud, Poutou and Mélenchon for sure.
Maybe Schivardi too.

We may also say that the Greens (Europe Ecologie more widely) have now a candidate, Eva Joly, who is arguably at the left of the PS (or of many of its members), especially if Hollande wins the PS primary (which should be in fact a left primary).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 23, 2011, 09:17:19 AM
Oops, I was typing while Hash was typing too... Well, you've got more answers for free ;D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on August 23, 2011, 09:18:30 AM
So, DSK back in?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 23, 2011, 09:24:56 AM

Nope. Candidacies for the PS primary are closed.
And I don't think that any candidate would want a support or advice from him.
And when they are back to power in May 2012 after 10 years of frustration, there will be so many people to reward with ministerial portfolios, inside the PS and outside it, that DSK won't be welcome.

Though Aubry has said that she salutes him "affectionately".
Which is quite risky, if I may write such a stupid joke ;D.
To be serious, maybe Aubry is more enthusiastic in her reaction because she fears that DSK may well disturb her more than Hollande, because Hollande was already candidate before the 14th of May, Day of Infamy, and because the biggest "traitors" in the DSK camp are behind Aubry (especially Cambadélis). So, maybe she tries to prevent him from talking too much when back in France...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 24, 2011, 05:31:29 AM
Complete numbers from a Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 17-22 August 2011, sample 1320 RVs

Among leftists / among socialists:
Hollande 42 / 49
Aubry 28 / 30
Royal 9 / 7
Montebourg 5 / 3
Valls 5 / 3
Baylet 0 / 0
none of them 11 / 7

Among Front de Gauche voters / among Greens (Harris don't say how much people it means... the samples should be tiny):
Hollande 30 / 30
Aubry 21 / 30
Royal 14 / 7
Montebourg 13 / 4
Valls 4 / 13
Baylet 0 / 0
none of them 19 / 16

Funny to see Valls result among Greens. What is noticeable is that Aubry may not be able to count on more leftist people to compensate for her bad results among socialists.

The most interesting numbers are from the 10% of the sample who say they will "certainly" vote in the primaries.
- This level of "certainty" is at 13% among men but only 8% among women. Hollande is far stronger among men.
- At 15% among people of more than 50 years old, 10% among 35-49 people, only 7% among 25-34 and 1% among 18-24. No big suprise here, of course, but the problem for Aubry is that it's exactly where Hollande is strong that people are more certain to GOTV.
- At 12% among "inactive" people (not only unemployed, but especially retirees), 10% among CSP+ and 8% among CSP-. Again Hollande is far stronger among inactive people.

I'm sorry to say, poll after poll, that Hollande is really stronger, but that's what numbers say :P.
(my deep belief that Sarkozy is doomed should persuade readers of my will to be impartial in analyses... :P I indeed hate Aubry, but she is indeed really weaker)

There are still many potential problems for Hollande: Royal may eventually try to harm him (though she seems to hate Aubry even more... which is understandable when you go back to Reims, 2008), Banon's mother and lawyer may try to bring him in the affair, etc.

But even DSK saying he supports Aubry could now be a problem for her...
And she has already wasted Daddy Delors, in a way.
And his campaign team seems able to avoid any personal attack, while she has already launched some small critics on TV recently.

Really, Hollande emerges from the summer even stronger, which is a surprise.
Of course, everything can change after TV debates and, what is more, between the 2 rounds (9th and 16th of October): if he is ahead but not so close to 50%, the momentum may be broken for him. That'd be an opportunity for Aubry.



BTW, 10% of people who would "certainly" GOTV in the PS primaries, that would mean 4 million voters... I can't believe it would be the case: that would be a great success.
Contrary to what many journalists say (especially leftist ones), 1 million would already be a success, I think.
Legitimacy will be an important thing for the socialist candidate, not in front of the whole French electorate, but inside the PS.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 24, 2011, 06:01:25 AM
Yeah, same old voting patterns. Not very meaningful since the campaign hasn't really begun, but yeah, Hollande is ahead. I'd like to see the debate actually start on political subject, but of course it's not gonna happen anytime soon.

So, is this tracker coming or not ? ???


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 24, 2011, 09:45:29 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #16 - 22 August 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

22 August Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,95
Poutou   0,55
Mélenchon   4,88
Chevènement   0,54
Aubry   25,87
Joly   6,19
Bayrou   7,08
Borloo   8,13
Villepin   2,60
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,62
Sarkozy   24,02
Dupont-Aignan   0,62
Le Pen   17,94

      


      

22 August Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,92
Poutou   0,28
Mélenchon   4,94
Chevènement   0,32
Hollande   28,06
Joly   6,24
Bayrou   6,65
Borloo   7,84
Villepin   2,65
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,56
Sarkozy   23,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,62
Le Pen   17,51

      


      

22 August generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,93
Poutou   0,39
Mélenchon   4,92
Chevènement   0,41
PS   27,19
Joly   6,22
Bayrou   6,82
Borloo   7,96
Villepin   2,63
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,58
Sarkozy   23,65
Dupont-Aignan   0,62
Le Pen   17,68



Only statistical noise this week again, but, before PS summer university in La Rochelle this week-end, we'll probably have a poll.

What we can say before this new phase in the presidential contest is
that Sarkozy is still deeply weak,
that Hollande is stronger than Aubry against him,
that Le Pen seems to have peaked but is still disturbingly strong for Sarkozy and even for some parts of the left,
that the small candidates on the far-left and on the right are very small,
that a big bunch of people in the center seem not to know who to follow, the Greens, Bayrou or Borloo,
that the PS should win but that there is something vaguely uncertain about this, floating in the air...
because of the past defeats, probably, because things seem more tense between Aubry and Hollande, because DSK's ghost is still very well alive, because the crisis is big and have the potential to have a big impact on the political contest (though that could be either way).

Enjoy the coming French presidential election ;).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 25, 2011, 03:48:26 AM
CSA poll for BFM TV-RMC-20 Minutes, 22-23 August 2011, 863 RVs out of a whole sample of 1006

14% of people certain to vote in the PS primary
15% of people likely to vote in the PS primary
(that sounds big, even bigger than the recent Harris poll)

Among these 2 categories / among socialists (we don't know the sample... it should be very tiny):
Hollande 37 / 45
Aubry 31 / 39
Royal 16 / 10
Montebourg 5 / 3
Valls 4 / 2
Baylet <1 / <1
none of them 3 / <1
don't know 4 / 1

Hollande is lower than in Harris, but the trend is the same: he is up and Aubry is down (they were at 41 among socialists in the previous CSA poll, just after her declaration of candidacy).
But, again, let's be careful as the sample is very tiny.

And, with only 2 names, Hollande's lead isn't so big:
Hollande 49 / 51
Aubry 45 / 47

Hollande 71 / 81
Royal 25 / 18

Aubry 66 / 77
Royal 29 / 22

They have also some questions on DSK:
among the whole sample / among socialists:
wish he is candidate in the PS primary 23 / 25
wish he supports another candidate 19 / 27
wish he doesn't take part in the political debate 53 / 43

Not all the socialists have burried DSK, after all, though it's pretty divided. Amazing that they don't realize that would now be worse than anything else if he tries to "help" in one way or another. He is le boulet, now.



Aubry / Hollande / Royal 26 / 27 / 19
Sarkozy 26 / 26 / 26

Le Pen 15 / 15 / 15
Borloo 8 / 8 / 8
Bayrou 7 / 7 / 9
Joly 5 / 5 / 7
Mélenchon 7 / 6.5 / 9
Villepin 4 / 3 / 4
Boutin 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Arthaud 0.5 / 1 / 1
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 1

Well, CSA is still having Le Pen lower than other pollsters (they were so much criticized for their failure in 2007, after having hugely overestimated Le Pen Sr).
Aubry is al most on par with Hollande here and Royal, for the first time in 2011, would make it to the 2nd round ;D.
Mélenchon is still higher in CSA polls (maybe you can link this to Panzergirl's relatively low scores).
No surprise otherwise: the landscape seems to be pretty stable.
They haven't tested Nihous: shame on them !

Let's hope that IFOP or IPSOS will soon make one of their own :P.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: republicanism on August 25, 2011, 07:42:18 AM

Antonio, Hashemite, Big bad fab, thanks for your answers.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 25, 2011, 11:38:09 AM
You're welcome. ;)


So Hollande and Aubry are effectively even when it comes to the very important ability-to-beat-Sarkozy. Hopefully, that should end up this campaigning argument.

So Fab, 26% is "deeply weak" for you ?

If trends keep on in this direction, Sarko will be ahead by october...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 25, 2011, 01:14:03 PM
Remember that Aubry was exactly equal to Hollande the last time...
And that Sarkozy was already high (26 and 27) in July...

So, with CSA, we have to be careful not to misinterpret...
The current trends (Hollande stronger, Sarkozy on the rise but very slowly, Le Pen down but still high) aren't invalidated at all.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 26, 2011, 04:39:21 AM
IPSOS poll for Le Monde, Radio France, France Télévision, 16-22 August 2011, 404 potential voters in PS primaries out of a whole sample of 3677

At least, we know that the real sample is 404 (which isn't so bad), based on the "potential voters", who are supposed to be 9% of the total (well, 404 is more than 10% of 3677... don't ask me why...).

These potential voters include 71% of socialists, 8% of Front de Gauche people, 6% of Greens, 4% of far-leftists, 3% of MoDem people, 3% of UMPers, 2% of FN people, 3% of no-party.
Which seems to be logical.

31% have more than 60 years old, 32% between 45 and 59, 19% between 35 and 44, 18% between 18 and 34.
This is in line with other pollsters and this is good for Hollande.

31% are retirees, 14% are other inactive people, 17% are employees, 15% are workers, 10% have superior posts.
In line with other pollsters and good again for Hollande, the candidate of old and retired people ;).

Among potential voters / among the whole sample:
Hollande 42 / 45
Aubry 31 / 26
Royal 18 / 9
Montebourg 5 / 1
Valls 3 / 2
Baylet 1 / 0
don't know 10 / 17

Good numbers again for Hollande BUT some elements aren't so good for him: he seems as though he is plateauing....

Forecast by potential voters:
Hollande 42
Aubry 29
Royal 9
Montebourg 1
Valls 1
Baylet 0
don't know 18

This may seem good for Hollande, but it just says that, in fact, forecasts aren't better for him than votes: that may mean that, apart from his supporters, there is some sort of rejection of him. Royal supporters aren't all naive and clearly see that she is doomed. But they don't seem to acknowledge Hollande's advantage.

My pick is definitive:
Hollande 51
Aubry 49
Royal 50

Another result which is a bit disappointing for Hollande (in the sense that it's not better for him than for the others).

Now, the second round is not so good for him:
Hollande 53 - 47 Aubry
with 62% of Hollande voters sure of their vote and 58% of Aubry voters.

Royal voters support Aubry at 53% and Hollande at 31% (16% don't know).
This is a change in comparison to spring polls. But it can be explained just because those of Royal supporters who preferred Hollande have already joined him (hence his rise in the first round since mid-May and the long decline of Royal since the beginning of 2011).

Who is the best ?
Hollande is ahead or on par on 8 items out of a total of 9, but Aubry isn't completely crushed, far from it:
on proposals, he is at 31, she is at 32
on embodiment of left values, he is at 29, she is at 40
on managing an international economic crisis, he is at 37, she is at 30.

Of course, she has a problem on 2 items:
on character, he is at 36, she is at 27 (but that could have been worse)
on ability to win against Sarkozy, he is at 48 and she is at 28: this is of course the main point on which he can make a difference in the end, especially if it's razor-thin in the 2nd round.

Well, all this gives us a suspenseful campaign, after all, as debates may well push Montebourg or even Valls up, as they'll become more known, and may well kill Aubry or Hollande if they make mistakes.
By putting Royal even more down (no, she can't go up :P), they may favour Montebourg or Aubry.
And the 1st round results may change all the landscape for the 2nd round, if Hollande isn't high enough.

In late June, medias were talking about Aubry rise (whereas she was just trying to erase the gap) and now they are talking about Hollande being the favourite without hesitation (whereas he is strong but not enough to be sure of his election at all).
If Hollande is still the favourite in late September, but do not have a big result, he may lose momentum and the medias will kill him for the 2nd round.

Last numbers from this poll, forecasts among the whole sample of French people:
Hollande 48
Sarkozy 38

Aubry 41
Sarkozy 47

Royal 25
Sarkozy 66

It's bad for Aubry, but I'm not sure primary voters will be aware of these obscure figures :P ....


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 26, 2011, 04:51:09 AM
Remember that Aubry was exactly equal to Hollande the last time...
And that Sarkozy was already high (26 and 27) in July...

So, with CSA, we have to be careful not to misinterpret...
The current trends (Hollande stronger, Sarkozy on the rise but very slowly, Le Pen down but still high) aren't invalidated at all.

Maybe what you should do is to separate your tracker into one subtracker for each polling firm, and aggregate those subtrackers to get the "official" tracker (you can give each firm the same ponderation, if you want). That way, it won't be too dependent of the overrepresentation of a particular house (for example, CSA will dominate the tracker next week). Of course, it makes it a bit more complicated. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 26, 2011, 04:55:25 AM
Well, if I make another tracker, that would be for PS primaries :P
But polls are really too erratic: you've got 3 almost the same day and then nothing for some weeks. Too bad.
Everyone should do like YouGov in the UK ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 26, 2011, 05:03:36 AM
Nah, we've only a handful of primary polls and the trends aren't even interesting...

Instead, eliminating house effects would be very useful to see things more clearly.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 27, 2011, 04:28:04 PM
IFOP poll for le Journal du Dimanche, 23-26 August 2011, 854 self-declared leftists out of a whole sample of 1968

This is a finer sample.

Among leftists / among socialists
Hollande 41 / 47
Aubry 31 / 31

Royal 13 / 11
Valls 6 / 5
Montebourg 5 / 4
Baylet 1 / 0
none of them 3 / 2

Hollande 55 / 58
Aubry 45 / 42

It's a bit boring to repeat things: Hollande is stronger, especially among old people, men, retirees, these categories which are also those who are likelier to GOTV the 9th of October.

Still, in a second round, Hollande isn't above 60.
But Aubry has really a lot of work to do.
We'll see if La Rochelle is good for her, as she is doing quite well, I think. But only formally: as for the ideas, medias don't help her.

Aubry is even is bit weaker in the first round and Royal is a bit up again, with Valls around 5 rather than around 3.
That's very small, but it's not good for Aubry: she hasn't managed to convince during the summer.

Debates will really be important for all of them.
Especially if it's "anybody but Hollande", especially for Royal and Montebourg (I can't think Valls would harm him and Baylet is too clever to weaken his party towards any of the socialist bigwigs :P).
We'll see, some primary debates in the US have been awful for some...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 28, 2011, 04:59:52 AM
I really can't wait for the debate, because the socialists' current "no comment" policy is getting sillier every day.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 29, 2011, 04:23:11 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #17 - 29 August 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until October at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

29 August Aubry sub-tracker      

Arthaud   0,54
Poutou   0,50
Mélenchon   6,36
Chevènement   0,20
Aubry   25,73
Joly   5,40
Bayrou   7,03
Borloo   8,07
Villepin   3,46
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,54
Sarkozy   25,57
Dupont-Aignan   0,54
Le Pen   16,07

   


29 August Hollande sub-tracker
   
Arthaud   0,87
Poutou   0,40
Mélenchon   6,04
Chevènement   0,10
Hollande   27,13
Joly   5,40
Bayrou   6,83
Borloo   7,90
Villepin   2,83
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,50
Sarkozy   25,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,54
Le Pen   16,07




29 August generic PS candidate sub-tracker   
   
Arthaud   0,74
Poutou   0,44
Mélenchon   6,17
Chevènement   0,14
PS   26,57
Joly   5,40
Bayrou   6,91
Borloo   7,97
Villepin   3,08
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,51
Sarkozy   25,47
Dupont-Aignan   0,54
Le Pen   16,07


OK, here we are: after the very small numbers of polls since the beginning of July, we've got an overvaluation for the last CSA one.
But I don't want to change the tracker, because it would mean to take into account in an even larger way the old ones.
And since June, we've got some big changes: Aubry is officially candidate, DSK was in again and out again and maybe in again and definitely out, La Rochelle has occurred and, what is more, the Big Kriziz is back.

So, we have to leave with those poor French medias and those lazy pollsters: no data ? No smooth changes in trackers...

But it's the last big vacation before the election.
So, let's be patient for 2 or 3 weeks, and polls will be numerous again.
The Xmas recess won't be long enough to produc the same effect :P.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 31, 2011, 06:04:30 AM
Hopefully the new bump in the Bettencourt affair will kill Sarko's momentum once for all.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 31, 2011, 06:30:42 AM
Hopefully the new bump in the Bettencourt affair will kill Sarko's momentum once for all.

I'm not so sure: it smells too much the Le Monde-Libération manipulation (I even suspect them to have given the info to Aubry this morning so that she can be the first to demand another inquiry... come on, guys, it's too clumsy... ;D even Valls seem to have understood this ;D).
And they are less efficient than Rue89 or Mediapart in this kind of stuff :P
Sarkozy, friend of some ugly rich persons ? Not really something new... :P

And well, DSK isn't back yet: so, the "soap opera" will probably erase the effect of these words by an angry judge. ;)

I think the Karachi affair (and all the dirt around it, I mean 1995 presidential campaign) has a far more killing potential for Sarkozy. This really frightens me.

In Karachi, you've got at once the moral aspect (people killed as a consequence of money), the classical money scandal and the political remnants of the latest great rightist divide (Chirac vs Balladur).
The perfect affaire d'Etat, à l'ancienne.



Aubry is really everywhere since this week-end. But is her message really clear ?
It's funny to see her act like a classical party chief, just at the moment when she is no longer PS first secretary... Again, it's not very good politically, I think.
And she must hate DSK now, as he will completely blur her attempt to come back.

As for the Senate, if it switches to the left on the 25th of September, I don't if the fact that the socialist leader there, Jean-Pierre Bel, is a "hollandais" will have any importance.
(positive, with some images of Hollande around the conquered High Chamber, or negative, as Hollande may appear as the "local barons" man)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 31, 2011, 06:48:51 AM
Hopefully the new bump in the Bettencourt affair will kill Sarko's momentum once for all.

I'm not so sure: it smells too much the Le Monde-Libération manipulation (I even suspect them to have given the info to Aubry this morning so that she can be the first to demand another inquiry... come on, guys, it's too clumsy... ;D even Valls seem to have understood this ;D).

ZOMGZ Conspiracy ! :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 31, 2011, 09:59:56 AM
Hopefully the new bump in the Bettencourt affair will kill Sarko's momentum once for all.

I'm not so sure: it smells too much the Le Monde-Libération manipulation (I even suspect them to have given the info to Aubry this morning so that she can be the first to demand another inquiry... come on, guys, it's too clumsy... ;D even Valls seem to have understood this ;D).

ZOMGZ Conspiracy ! :P

No, don't say that, that's not the way I'm reasoning. I know that, nowadays, you can't anything anymore, because there is always a suspicion of manipulation either of the facts themselves, or of the interpretation of these facts or alleged facts.

No, when I say "manipulation", it's only on the calendar and on the way the info is given and used in the medias, not on the info itself.
(I of course don't know if it's true; it wouldn't be surprising at all to see Sarkozy having taken money from Liliane)

As for Aubry's reaction this morning, I've found it too precise and well-balanced to be a spontaneous answer...
or maybe she is really very, very clever and I should support her, after all :P ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 01, 2011, 04:09:30 AM
Yes, that might be as you say. It's quite possible that they waited the right moment to reveal the story. As we say, "c'est de bonne guerre". ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 01, 2011, 05:06:16 AM
Yes, that might be as you say. It's quite possible that they waited the right moment to reveal the story. As we say, "c'est de bonne guerre". ;)

And again, Hollande and Moscovici were better than Aubry ;D: they attacked Sarkozy on a system of "pressures" as a whole, not on Bettencourt affair particularly.

All the more that the nurse who saw money given to Sarkozy according to the judge has just said that it's wrong...

Now that Aubry "has always something to say" (le professeur Rollin a toujours quelque chose à dire ! don't you remember ? ;)), she is prone to say also some BS.
At least, it's interesting as the PS internal campaign is now very active. Fine !

Royal is trying to tilt towards Hollande again, after having been kind to Aubry, after having first been closer to Hollande.
She is really out of control ;).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 01, 2011, 05:14:38 AM
Let's wait for the primary debates... I'm sure Aubry will trounce The Wimp.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 01, 2011, 09:24:49 AM
I'm supporting Aubry now, definitely. I don't think that's good for Aubry supporters... I tend to support the loser candidate.



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 01, 2011, 10:02:52 AM
Let's wait for the primary debates... I'm sure Aubry will trounce The Wimp.

Hollande has strong polls, but, contrary to many medias, I think he appeared weak, on a personal level, during La Rochelle.
Royal seems to paralyze him...
And he has a real difficulty to be tough in front of other people, which could be quite bad during a debate...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 01, 2011, 04:06:59 PM
OpinionWay-Fiducial poll for LCI and Le Figaro, 31 August-1 September 2011, sample 1311 leftist RVs out of a whole sample of 3202

Among those 1311 leftist RVs, 819 are socialist and 222 are the "likely voters" in the primary.

Among leftists / socialists / LVs
Hollande 44 / 48 / 42
Aubry 30 / 31 / 29
Royal 13 / 14 / 21
Montebourg 8 / 4 / 7
Valls 4 / 3 / 1
Baylet 1 / 0 / 0
don't know 11 / 4 / 0

Of course, LVs is a tiny sample, but Royal is at +7 in this sub-category ! Hollande at -4 and Aubry at -1.
Hollande has a good popularity, but it's a bit less clear in electability.
And what is surprising is that the first criterion for voting (ability to beat Sarkozy) is amazingly important for LVs especially. Interesting, as Hollande should be the best to fight against Sarkozy if you believe the other polls.

2nd round:
Hollande 57 / 57 / 53
Aubry 43 / 43 / 47

Among LVs, Aubry is at +9 ! Again, the sample is really tiny. But nothing is done.

Royal supporters are 25% behind Hollande and 51 % behind Aubry
Montebourg supporters are 42% behind Hollande and 39% behind Aubry.
Valls supporters 50% and 32%.
It may not mean anything, but it sounds pretty logical.

Same conclusion as before, Hollande still stronger, but not enough to be quiet, far from it.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 04, 2011, 04:38:00 AM
So, no new poll again this week... :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 04, 2011, 06:24:12 AM
IFOP poll for le Journal du Dimanche, 30 August-2 September 2011, 1918 RVs out of a whole sample of 2036

CSA should be ashamed when you see the big samples of the latest IFOP, IPSOS, OpinionWay, even Harris polls...

Hollande 29 / Aubry 25 / Royal 17
Sarkozy 23.5 / 24 / 25
Le Pen 18.5 / 19.5 / 19
Borloo 6 / 6.5 / 8
Bayrou 6 / 6.5 / 8
Joly 6 / 6 / 9
Mélenchon 6 / 6 / 7
Villepin 2.5 / 3 / 3
Boutin 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Nihous 0.5 / 1 / 1
Chevènement 0.5 / 1 / 1.5
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Arthaud 0 / 0 / 0

Second round:
Hollande 59
Sarkozy 41

Aubry 54
Sarkozy 46

Hollande stronger, Sarkozy not really on the rise anymore, though he is usually low in IFOP polls and Le Pen high.
(Royal is again behind Le Pen: she has been weak for
so many months now...
Borloo and Bayrou are down and we have now 4 candidates around 6 !
Beware, under 5%, no public money !!! ;D

At last, one pollster takes Nihous into account. Difficult to say from whom he has stolen his points. Probably Le Pen and Dupont-Aignan.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 04, 2011, 07:30:17 AM
Well, as it seemed the CSA poll was pretty biased against Le Pen and for Sarkozy. By averaging those two, we should hopefully come with a decent idea of how the race stands. I hope we'll start having more than one poll per week however...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 05, 2011, 09:50:14 AM
OK, the US have Zogby.
France had CSA in 2007.
We may have LH2 for 2012 ;D !!!!
(or is there really a classical polarization around the socialists and Sarkozy ?)

LH2 poll for Yahoo!, 2-3 September 2011, sample 959

Hollande 35 / Aubry 30 / Royal 18
Sarkozy 27 / 27 / 29
Le Pen 11 / 12 / 12

You've already fallen from your chair and your back is hurting ?
Fortunately, for the small ones, it's a bit less mad:

Borloo 6 / 8.5 / 10 (Borloo is the 2012 version of Bayrou 2007 if you follow LH2 :P)
Bayrou 6 / 6 / 8
Joly 6 / 4.5 / 10
Mélenchon 4 / 5 / 5
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5 / 1
Poutou 0 / 0 / 0.5
Villepin 2 / 3.5 / 4
Boutin 2 / 2 / 2 (:D after all, they may be right ;))
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 1 / 0.5
Nihous not even tested

Hollande and even Aubry at incumbent-Mitterrandesque levels ?
Sarkozy back towards his 2007 levels ?
Panzergirl almost as bad as Big Daddy the last time ?
Around 60% for the UMP and the (serious) PS candidates ???

Come on....

And, what is more, they've published it while I've already updated my tracker >:(
I'm forced to update it again before posting it, as it's better to minimize its impact already this week with the big IFOP one.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 05, 2011, 10:26:59 AM
Strange numbers from that LH2 poll... I wouldn't believe them.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 05, 2011, 11:27:47 AM
Please Fab, tell me you're not including that crap in your tracker.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 05, 2011, 04:02:08 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #18 - 5 September 2011

PROVISIONAL ! ;)
               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until October at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

5 September Aubry sub-tracker      

Arthaud   0,24
Poutou   0,37
Mélenchon   5,89
Chevènement   0,54
Aubry   26,49
Joly   5,44
Bayrou   6,50
Borloo   7,35
Villepin   3,30
Nihous   0,52
Boutin   0,89
Sarkozy   25,16
Dupont-Aignan   0,63
Le Pen   16,68

   

   
5 September Hollande sub-tracker

Arthaud   0,33
Poutou   0,36
Mélenchon   5,53
Chevènement   0,27
Hollande   30,13
Joly   5,83
Bayrou   6,21
Borloo   6,43
Villepin   2,47
Nihous   0,26
Boutin   0,89
Sarkozy   24,89
Dupont-Aignan   0,50
Le Pen   15,90




5 September generic PS candidate sub-tracker
   
Arthaud   0,29
Poutou   0,36
Mélenchon   5,67
Chevènement   0,38
PS   28,68
Joly   5,67
Bayrou   6,32
Borloo   6,80
Villepin   2,80
Nihous   0,36
Boutin   0,89
Sarkozy   25,00
Dupont-Aignan   0,55
Le Pen   16,21



Yes, I've included LH2.

This is a poll and I'm not able to ponderate French pollsters regarding to their accuracy in previous elections. We have too few data to do this.

Of course, Le Pen seems hugely undervalued hugely by LH2. PS seems hugely overvalued. Sarjozy is probably too high.

But, after all, when we all said that Harris Interactive was wrong about Panzergirl in January of February, then almost all the other pollsters put her very high.

Maybe LH2 has found a new trend, or some new trends.
Each pollster has its method, regarding this big problem: are people giving the same intentions for Girly than for Daddy ?

Maybe IFOP is overvaluing Panzergirl.
And CSA had Sarkozy at the same level, roughly.

We don't have enough polls to afford to drop one of them :P.
And it gives some suspense ;).
And a tracker is precisely here to give us an average of all this (LH2 counts "only" for a quarter of the total in the current results of our tracker).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 05, 2011, 07:33:11 PM
Fab, the new French pbower???

(Just joking)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 06, 2011, 01:41:57 AM
Fab, the new French pbower???

(Just joking)

Why are you so aggressive with me, Julio ;D ?



Hold on, guys ! You are going to be happy !
Tonight, I'll modify my yesterday's tracker, as IPSOS has published, this morning, a new poll made this last week-end.

IPSOS poll for Radio-France, France-Télévisions, Le Monde, 2-3 September 2011, sample 963

Hollande 30 / Aubry 27 / Royal 19
Sarkozy 22 / 23 / 23
Le Pen 17 / 18 / 18
Borloo 7 / 7 / 9
Bayrou 6 / 6 / 7
Joly 5 / 6 / 7
Mélenchon 5 / 5.5 / 8.5
Arthaud 2 / 2.5 / 2
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Villepin 4.5 / 3.5 / 5
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1
Boutin and Nihous not included >:(

IPSOS is more in line with IFOP, with socialists high but not above 30, with Sarkozy under 25 and Le Pen still threatening for him.

Borloo is down and Villepin slightly on the rise.
Arthaud is really "high" in IPSOS polls. Joly is down here too.

The internals are as usual, with Hollande having a wider base than Aubry and a centre ground deeply splitted but very fluid.

IPSOS worries me a bit since the beginning of this 2012 season:
Boutin and Nihous still not included; Villepin higher in Hollande scenario than in Aubry one; Mélenchon higher in Aubry scenario than in Hollande one;... there are some weaknesses in what was the best pollster in 2007.
But, again, one pollster is right and we don't know which one and won't know until the end ;D.

Anyway, with an addition of 963 people, the effect of LH2 will really be diluted.
Tonight, a new tracker ;).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 06, 2011, 02:54:07 AM
Why "provisional" ? Should I include it in the graph or not ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 06, 2011, 10:45:59 AM
Fab, the new French pbower???

(Just joking)

Why are you so aggressive with me, Julio ;D ?



Hold on, guys ! You are going to be happy !
Tonight, I'll modify my yesterday's tracker, as IPSOS has published, this morning, a new poll made this last week-end.

IPSOS poll for Radio-France, France-Télévisions, Le Monde, 2-3 September 2011, sample 963

Hollande 30 / Aubry 27 / Royal 19
Sarkozy 22 / 23 / 23
Le Pen 17 / 18 / 18
Borloo 7 / 7 / 9
Bayrou 6 / 6 / 7
Joly 5 / 6 / 7
Mélenchon 5 / 5.5 / 8.5
Arthaud 2 / 2.5 / 2
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Villepin 4.5 / 3.5 / 5
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1
Boutin and Nihous not included >:(

IPSOS is more in line with IFOP, with socialists high but not above 30, with Sarkozy under 25 and Le Pen still threatening for him.

Borloo is down and Villepin slightly on the rise.
Arthaud is really "high" in IPSOS polls. Joly is down here too.

The internals are as usual, with Hollande having a wider base than Aubry and a centre ground deeply splitted but very fluid.

IPSOS worries me a bit since the beginning of this 2012 season:
Boutin and Nihous still not included; Villepin higher in Hollande scenario than in Aubry one; Mélenchon higher in Aubry scenario than in Hollande one;... there are some weaknesses in what was the best pollster in 2007.
But, again, one pollster is right and we don't know which one and won't know until the end ;D.

Anyway, with an addition of 963 people, the effect of LH2 will really be diluted.
Tonight, a new tracker ;).


This poll is more realistic, IMHO. I'm not aggresive. I like pBower hahaha...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 06, 2011, 01:57:15 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #18 - 5 September 2011

THE REAL ONE ! ;)
               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until October at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

5 September Aubry sub-tracker      

Arthaud   0,71
Poutou   0,40
Mélenchon   5,81
Chevènement   0,43
Aubry   26,60
Joly   5,56
Bayrou   6,39
Borloo   7,28
Villepin   3,34
Nihous   0,41
Boutin   0,70
Sarkozy   24,71
Dupont-Aignan   0,71
Le Pen   16,95

   

   
5 September Hollande sub-tracker

Arthaud   0,67
Poutou   0,39
Mélenchon   5,42
Chevènement   0,22
Hollande   30,10
Joly   5,66
Bayrou   6,17
Borloo   6,55
Villepin   2,89
Nihous   0,21
Boutin   0,70
Sarkozy   24,29
Dupont-Aignan   0,60
Le Pen   16,13




5 September generic PS candidate sub-tracker
   
Arthaud   0,69
Poutou   0,39
Mélenchon   5,58
Chevènement   0,30
PS   28,70
Joly   5,62
Bayrou   6,26
Borloo   6,84
Villepin   3,07
Nihous   0,29
Boutin   0,70
Sarkozy   24,46
Dupont-Aignan   0,64
Le Pen   16,46



Now, you've got IPSOS in also.
So, this is the real, exhaustive, tracker. This one is fit to be included in your graph, Antonio.

LH2 is only 20% of it.
And as there are also some surprising things in the CSA and IPSOS polls, it's not so awful to have it too.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 08, 2011, 02:34:19 AM
Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 31 August-5 September 2011, sample 888

A smaller sample than usual for Harris.
And still no Boutin or Nihous ::)
(I really don't understand them: Boutin isn't sure to have 500 signatures, but Dupont-Aignan even less as he failed in 2007 while she succeeded in 2002; as for Nihous, he is the surest, among small candidates, to have his signatures; at least, those who don't include Chevènement are a bit more coherent, as I think his noise about a possible candidacy is just a way to "be alive" on the political scene)

Hollande 28.5 / Aubry 24 / Royal 15
Sarkozy 23.5 / 24 / 24
Le Pen 18 / 20 / 20
Borloo 7 / 7 / 9
Bayrou 7 / 8 / 9
Joly 8 / 7 / 10
Mélenchon 3 / 5 / 7
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 0
Poutou 0 / 0 / 1
Villepin 3 / 3 / 4
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1

When I've put 0, it's because Harris says "<1". The problem is that even with 0.5, we are above 100%... Why do they use .5 (which is, in itself, a good idea) but not for some Poutou's and Arthaud's results ???
Polls aren't a mathematical object, I guess ::)

Anyway, Borloo down, Bayrou up / Joly up, Mélenchon down : this may be coherent, but the latter pair of results isn't in line with other pollsters.
And a difference of 13.5 between Hollande and Royal ? Yeah, she'd be a bad candidate, but still...

The good news is that pollsters are active again, though I hope the PS primaries won't lead to a halt in polls for the presidential election itself.

The bad news is that, apart from IFOP, all the others seem to have weakenesses, small ones for IPSOS, OpinionWay and CSA, bigger for LH2 and Harris (Sofres and BVA ? Well, we don't know for sure, their publications are so scarce...).

This is the exact situation where a tracker is needed ;D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 08, 2011, 06:07:12 AM
Please forgive my lateness, but now I'm back at work in Sciences Po, so it's harder to find enough time to update the trackers. Anyways, here there are.


Aubry :

()


Hollande :

()


As you can see, the last two weeks have seen bold, and probably utterly meaningless swings. Now that the database is more dense, we should get back a well-functioning tracker. I didn't raise the threshold above 30%, because I don't think for one second Hollande or anyone else could realistically break it (and also because it would further "crush" the little candidates). The vertical line you see in the middle of the graph indicates the second round of PS primaries, which will be held on October 16. Concretely, it means that once we reach this line we'll have only one graph left.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on September 08, 2011, 10:56:58 AM
Please forgive my lateness, but now I'm back at work in Sciences Po, so it's harder to find enough time to update the trackers.

Hope you took the US elections and political behavior class ;-)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 08, 2011, 11:24:55 AM
Please forgive my lateness, but now I'm back at work in Sciences Po, so it's harder to find enough time to update the trackers.

Hope you took the US elections and political behavior class ;-)

Sadly, I didn't. :( Registaration is always very stressful, there were a lot of passionating courses, I also had to take the hours of each course into account, etc... So I didn't get everything as I wanted, but that doesn't matter, since there's still so much to learn. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 08, 2011, 02:28:58 PM
In the second year, I had a course on UK politics with Jacques Leruez (pretty satisfactory: it was the year when Maggie was ousted ;D) and a course in English on US social sciences (not really my first choice...., though I tried to slip a bit, by picking a big study on TR :P).

I was far luckier in the 3rd year, with a course on Central Asia with Olivier Roy (YESSSSSSSSSS !!!!!!! My best course ever !) and a course in English on Soviet politics with Marie Mendras.
My exact first choices ;).
So, let's stay hopeful, Antonio ;).

What is your section, Antonio ? Something like the old PES (politique économique et sociale) ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 09, 2011, 04:21:15 AM
In the second year, I had a course on UK politics with Jacques Leruez (pretty satisfactory: it was the year when Maggie was ousted ;D) and a course in English on US social sciences (not really my first choice...., though I tried to slip a bit, by picking a big study on TR :P).

I was far luckier in the 3rd year, with a course on Central Asia with Olivier Roy (YESSSSSSSSSS !!!!!!! My best course ever !) and a course in English on Soviet politics with Marie Mendras.
My exact first choices ;).
So, let's stay hopeful, Antonio ;).

What is your section, Antonio ? Something like the old PES (politique économique et sociale) ?

Sections ? I guess it doesn't work that way anymore. We could basically choose every course, but the choices were disconnected for each other.

The two main courses (4h/week) were law (we had to choose betwen around 5 different course, I chose "La Vème République : droit constitutionnel"), and a "transdiciplinary" one, to choose between two : "Histoire et droit des Etats" and "Espace mondial". I had no choice but picking the latter, the first one being in conflict with the law course, but I don't regret my choice, as the prof, Bertrand Badie, is quite passionating.

Apart from that (and the languages), we had to choose :
- a "humanités" courses (I picked one about metaphysics)
- an "atelier artistique" (as last year, I took theatre),
- an "approfondissement" (I took a History about political organizations and engagement)
- an "enseignement électif", where I picked "making sense of European societies" in English (didn't really choose, I made a mistake and had to rescind registration in the course I had initially chosen).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 09, 2011, 07:13:16 AM
There were 4 sections, long ago, or 4 tracks or streams or branches, as you wish:
- SP (service public), in order to prepare ENA and other civil service schools,
- EcoFi (économique et financière), not yet another business school at that time,
- PES (politique, économique et sociale), for future teachers, journalists, communication specialists
- RI (relations internationales).

It seems to be far more complicated now.
Will you specialize only in fourth and fifth years ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 09, 2011, 11:54:05 AM
Yeah, nowadays Sciences Po uses the European LMD (license-master-doctorat) system. Licence lasts 3 years and is common for everybody. Then you pick your master, among a long list, and you graduate after 2 years. There are two kind of masters : masters "pro" which prepare to exerting an actual job (or pursuing professional studies in other schools, like ENA) and masters "recherche" which lead to a thesis and the doctorate after 3 years.

As for the old system, I would certainly have picked PES, indeed. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 12, 2011, 04:03:20 PM
ViaVoice poll for Libération, 8-9 September 2011, 275 self-declared socialists among 501 self-declared leftists among a whole sample of 1007

We don't have all the results yet.

Among the whole sample / among leftists / among socialists
Hollande 33 / 40 / 49
Aubry 15 / 22 / 24
Royal 10 / 12 / 9
Montebourg 3 / ? / ?
Valls 6 / ? / ?
Baylet 1 / ? / ?
none of them 18 / ? / ?
don't know 14 / ? / ?

Popularity (among the whole sample I guess):
Hollande 55 (=)
Aubry 45 (-4)
Royal 33 (-1)
Valls 30 (+4)
Montebourg 27 (+3)

No big change here, with Hollande still far ahead.

But the debates may well have an impact for Montebourg and Valls if they are efficient.
And Aubry will of course perform better: if she performs far better (but only in this case), then she can break Hollande's momentum.
I'm repeating myself...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 12, 2011, 04:23:49 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #19 - 12 September 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until October at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

12 September Aubry sub-tracker      

Arthaud   0,76
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   5,70
Chevènement   0,35
Aubry   26,20
Joly   5,77
Bayrou   6,63
Borloo   7,22
Villepin   3,31
Nihous   0,35
Boutin   0,59
Sarkozy   24,61
Dupont-Aignan   0,76
Le Pen   17,41




12 September Hollande sub-tracker   
   
Arthaud   0,74
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   5,05
Chevènement   0,18
Hollande   29,89
Joly   6,02
Bayrou   6,29
Borloo   6,60
Villepin   2,91
Nihous   0,18
Boutin   0,59
Sarkozy   24,18
Dupont-Aignan   0,67
Le Pen   16,37

   


12 September generic PS candidate sub-tracker
   
Arthaud   0,75
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   5,31
Chevènement   0,25
PS   28,42
Joly   5,92
Bayrou   6,43
Borloo   6,85
Villepin   3,07
Nihous   0,25
Boutin   0,59
Sarkozy   24,35
Dupont-Aignan   0,71
Le Pen   16,79


More or less, we are back to the situation pre-August recess.

Sarkozy is a bit up, Hollande too and Borloo is down in every hypothesis.
Le Pen, Mélenchon and Joly are up or down, depending on the hypothesis.

But Sarkozy's gains are very small and, as Borloo has lost ground, the socialists, especially Hollande, are really in very good shape.

Sarkozy is a bit like McCain '08: whatever the news, whatever he does, every situation or event eventually fires back or simply fades away, while some should normally favour him (Libya, financial crisis, DSK, Guérini,...).

And with a new war inside the right maybe in the making with Robert Bourgi's declarations, the path is even darker for Sarkozy (though I think Bourgi is just trying a personal vendetta against Chirac, Villepin and... Juppé as the latter recently made all he could to sideline him).

Wait a bit and Karachi will re-surface...

President Hollande ? Bah...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on September 12, 2011, 04:41:28 PM
What's causing Le Pen's surge in second round polling? She's in the high 20's against the Socialist candidates, and if she were to run against Sarkozy, is in the high 30's.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 13, 2011, 04:44:04 AM
Fab, I think by now you can switch to 0.7/0.3 for Hollande. Not that it matters (I've never followed the generic tracker), but I think that would be a fairer estimate of probabilities. ;)

Anyways, will you switch the ponderation downgrade to 20% after the primaries ? I think that would be fair.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 13, 2011, 04:54:59 AM
Fab, I think by now you can switch to 0.7/0.3 for Hollande. Not that it matters (I've never followed the generic tracker), but I think that would be a fairer estimate of probabilities. ;)

Anyways, will you switch the ponderation downgrade to 20% after the primaries ? I think that would be fair.

60-40 still seems a likely result for the 2nd round Hollande-Aubry, don't you think ?

I find Hollande a bit too over-confident these days.
I find him less clear and efficient in public meetings.
I think that, anyway, I have to wait for Thursday's debate.

The medias, even many of leftist medias, have tilted towards him in the 2 or 3 last weeks, that's true, but I'd tend to consider this as a sign that Aubry is, on the contrary, able to pull a surprise :P.

Though the fact she fled from BFM TV's interview was a very bad point for her.


As for the ponderation, I think I'll indeed switch to 0.2 after the PS primaries. Fair indeed: that'll mean 5 weeks plus the current week, i.e. 6 weeks taken into account in a way.

Of course, nearing the launch of the official campaign (in 2007, February was already very "rocky", but March saw the real stuff beginning), I'll even switch to 0.25.
Except if pollsters don't give us more polls than today :P.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 13, 2011, 04:59:15 AM
Re-posting this

ViaVoice poll for Libération, 8-9 September 2011, 275 self-declared socialists among 501 self-declared leftists among a whole sample of 1007

but with all the numbers in.

Among the whole sample / among leftists / among socialists
Hollande 33 / 40 / 49
Aubry 15 / 22 / 24

Royal 10 / 12 / 9
Montebourg 3 / 2 / 1
Valls 6 / 4 / 5
Baylet 1 / 0 / 0
none of them 18 / 10 / 5
don't know 14 / 10 / 7

Montebourg is surprisingly low here, but with so small samples, it may not mean a lot.
Valls is very slightly up.

Hollande might foresee a victory in the first round, but he'd be really too confident.

I'm so eager to see the first "debate" !!!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 13, 2011, 05:13:55 AM
Fab, I think by now you can switch to 0.7/0.3 for Hollande. Not that it matters (I've never followed the generic tracker), but I think that would be a fairer estimate of probabilities. ;)

Anyways, will you switch the ponderation downgrade to 20% after the primaries ? I think that would be fair.

60-40 still seems a likely result for the 2nd round Hollande-Aubry, don't you think ?

I find Hollande a bit too over-confident these days.
I find him less clear and efficient in public meetings.
I think that, anyway, I have to wait for Thursday's debate.

The medias, even many of leftist medias, have tilted towards him in the 2 or 3 last weeks, that's true, but I'd tend to consider this as a sign that Aubry is, on the contrary, able to pull a surprise :P.

Though the fact she fled from BFM TV's interview was a very bad point for her.


As for the ponderation, I think I'll indeed switch to 0.2 after the PS primaries. Fair indeed: that'll mean 5 weeks plus the current week, i.e. 6 weeks taken into account in a way.

Of course, nearing the launch of the official campaign (in 2007, February was already very "rocky", but March saw the real stuff beginning), I'll even switch to 0.25.
Except if pollsters don't give us more polls than today :P.

We're both hadline pessimists, so we always see things in the opposite way. ;)

Anyways, one month before the election, Nate Silver usually translates 5-point leads into 70% odds, so...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 14, 2011, 03:57:33 AM
LH2 and IFOP had 2 recent polls about probability to vote in the PS open primaries.

In a nutshell,
the older you are, the likelier you know the primaries procedures and the likelier you are to GOTV,
the higher diplomas you have, the likelier...
the higher social and professional category you belong to, the likelier...
the more Parisian or southerner you are, the likelier...
the closer to the PS you are, the likelier...

As for sex, it's less clear: roughly equal for IFOP, the likelier for men for LH2.

Of course, almost all these numbers are good for Hollande, as he is doing better among old people, Parisians and southerners, men, socialists.
Aubry should do better among Greens and among CSP++ (Hollande is better among middle classes), but these are small advantages.

Antonio may be right, after all, on the ponderation of my generic PS candidate sub-tracker.
We'll see what happens tomorrow on TV (remember it's on France 2, so it will be more watched than the next ones on i-Télé and parliamentarian channels - what is more, the second debate is at 6 PM, I think, so not a very good time).

Hollande seems to make too much meetings around France: he may well be tired for his first debate.
He seems a bit messier these days.
And he is on top of polls, so he'll be under everybody's fire, like... uh... Rick Perry ;D :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 15, 2011, 07:27:02 AM
BVA poll for RTL, Orange and regional press, 7-14 September 2011, sample 2645

Out of this whole sample, you have 402 persons "certain" to vote and 676 persons who may vote (the 402 are included in the 676 from what I've understood).
Globally, out of the whole sample, you've got 1265 leftists.

So...

Among the 402 sample / among leftists in this 402 sample / among socialists in this 402 sample:
Hollande 47 / 48 / 53
Aubry 29 / 31 / 31
Royal 13 / 12 / 10
Montebourg 6 / 6 / 4
Valls 4 / 3 / 2
Baylet 1 / 0 / 0

Among the 676 sample / among leftists in this 676 sample / among socialists in this 676 sample:
Hollande 48 / 49 / 55
Aubry 28 / 29 / 29
Royal 12 / 12 / 9
Montebourg 6 / 6 / 4
Valls 5 / 4 / 3
Baylet 1 / 0 / 0

Among the 1265 leftists:
Hollande 44
Aubry 31

Royal 12
Montebourg 7
Valls 5
Baylet 1

The results are the same as for other pollsters.

Please note that BVA has erased all the "NOTA", "don't know" answers, hence the fact that Hollande is close to or above 50%.

And the internals (no tables, just comments from BVA) are very coherent with the other pollsters:
Hollande is strong among old people, inactive people, employees, socialists and has a slightly better result among those "certain" or more likely to vote.

At this stage, he may be able to pull a result "à la Cristina Kirchner" :P.

But, again, maybe he is too high too early. And in front of cameras, he may well be weaker.
Of course, he may not be the only one under fire (after all, Royal has to kill Aubry in order to make it to the 2nd round: Hollande is too far away for her; and Montebourg has to steal the same people that Aubry gathers for the moment); but he is the favourite and so, any other candidate will try to fight with him, and every media will first look at him.

Conversely, the "debate" of tonight is so tightly choreographed that there may be no real change (that's probably Hollande's goal). And the real debate will begin only after more than an hour, when people begin to zap on other channels...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 15, 2011, 01:41:30 PM
Primary debate begins ! :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 15, 2011, 01:49:13 PM
I might be a hack, but so far Aubry was clearly the best in this initial sequence. She had a clear speech, talked about issues and not about vague terms, called out Sarkozy and made sense.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on September 15, 2011, 01:59:29 PM
I might be a hack, but so far Aubry was clearly the best in this initial sequence. She had a clear speech, talked about issues and not about vague terms, called out Sarkozy and made sense.

Well, you're not a hack, just partisan ;-)
I support Hollande and I really believe he is way much stronger so far.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 15, 2011, 02:46:35 PM
Well, this time I think we will agree Hollande has been great during the "interrogation" phase. He was precise, incisive, focused on issues. I don't know how Aubry will do, but clearly she'll have a hard job beating him. As painful as it is for me to say, kudos.

Otherwise, Montebourg was pretty good. I disagreed with him on most topics, but he exposed his arguments with clarity and intelligence. Baylet wasn't great (well, duh), but he also said what he had to say... Even Royal was vacuous, but not as much as one could fear...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on September 15, 2011, 03:15:12 PM
She has been like Martine Aubry: serious, clear, knowledgeable, but not very exciting. And the way she talks, with all these hackneyed expressions, exactly the way we can expect from an énarque, it really bores me.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on September 15, 2011, 03:37:17 PM
Any place to watch some re-stream or something? I want to see this.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 15, 2011, 03:41:22 PM
Any place to watch some re-stream or something? I want to see this.

Try France 2's website.

Anyways, no big surprise so far. Everyone is making big efforts not to disagree with anybody else.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 15, 2011, 03:49:05 PM
Aubry just made excellent points on retirements and deficits... and she's tackled Hollande. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 15, 2011, 04:47:02 PM
So, in the end, an interesting debate, when we saw overall quite good performances. Nobody failed massively : Montebourg was convincing and made people understand better his ideas (his conclusion was particularly well-thought IMO), Valls kept on his rhetoric without much surprises, Baylet appeared as the likable guy who knows he can't win but advances his ideas with conviction, Ségolène wasn't too much of a disaster. I think Hollande has done really well on the 10 m interview, and also had a decent debate prestation, though not excellent. Aubry was never excellent, but has clearly advanced his position, defended her choices and attacked Hollande (which is what she needs to do, in this position). So, do we know much more about the future winner ? Probably not. I doubt this will change the candidates' standings, but let's wait and see.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 15, 2011, 05:20:49 PM
Royal is clearly a loser here.
She was incoherent, as usual, seemed under pressure and was unable to be really different.

Valls was probably the best in the debate, but has had a bad conclusion.

Montebourg, the other one (with Royal) who should have put some flames in the debate, was too theoretical and frankly not convincing.

As for Hollande and Aubry, well, they had their good and bad moments. She was better in the middle of the debate, but he was better at the end.
I think this is a draw for both of them.

And, yes, she attacked, but I don't know if those who will GOTV in the primary want to see attacks: Hollande has done well not to counter-attack so aggressively.
Conversely, he is clearly weak when attacked personally: maybe she'll find a cleverer way to attack him in the next debates and, especially, if there is a second round.
I think that, on this point, she did bad in this debate (I mean in a primary context), but that she also proved she'd be better against Sarkozy in a TV debate.

What has shocked me is the way Pujadas was utterly biased towards Aubry:
she hasn't had to reply on DSK because it came too late and had not enough time,
Pujadas ahas attacked Hollande on the 2005 referendum,
but he didn't even tried ti have Aubry answer on the retirement at 60 years old, on which she lied and lied gain one year ago to people who were in the streets (now, she says: "back to 60 but... not for everybody" ! come on !).

Anyway, probably no great effect for this debate.
Except indirectly if Royal goes even more down (though I think the 10-15% that are still supporting her would switch to Montebourg more than Aubry).

Hollande hasn't lost ground, which was his priority.
But Aubry may find a way to hurt him, which lets her some ground to come back.

The next debate will be at 6 PM on i-Télé.
But I don't know for the last one: time and media will of course be very important.
As many people may not bother to watch the other 2, as this one wasn't completely original and fascinating... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 16, 2011, 02:31:54 AM
(the last debate will be on BFM-TV, more and more a "trash" TV, at 8.30 PM: so, let's expect blood and maybe a not-so-tiny influence on the final result, though it's on a TV less watched than the big old ones)

So, after having reviewed the debate:

as for the introduction:

1. Valls
2. Hollande
3. Baylet
4. Montebourg
(the last 2 did really badly)

5. Royal
6. Aubry (yeah, she started awfully, a lot under pressure)

as for the interview part:

1. Montebourg (brilliant, clear, energetic)
2. Valls (clear, convincing)
3. Hollande (not so bad: he appeared stronger than usual and with emotion and anger)
(these 3 were clearly better)

4. Baylet
5. Aubry (well, it was better in the end, but it was messy, unclear and utterly un-smiling)
6. Royal (come on... everybody says she has "made progress" since 2007, but where ??? on what ??? she's really our Palin... ;) not managing the language, completely messy, unable to manage her own sentences, very weak on financial questions, forced to look at her paper,...)

as for the debate:

1. Valls (at ease, clear)
2. Aubry (she was better as an attack dog, clearly, and Hollande vascillated too easily)
(these 2 were clearly ahead of the others)

3. Hollande (it was pretty mixed for him: good on drugs and DSK, good by seeming a uniter, not an attacker; but very quickly a lil' boy not daring to answer Big Mamma Aubry; he has clearly a worrying weakness here)
4. Baylet
5. Montebourg (disappointing, too theoretical, unable to be a focus point, he was clearly underperforming after a very good interview)
6. Royal (does she have any credibility left ?)

as for the conclusion:

1. Hollande (at ease, very consensual, very good towards old socialists and leftist voters who want unity and efficiency)
2. Aubry (good on a personal level, at last, clearly relieved it was over, a phrase "j'en ai" very finely put in place)
3. Valls (brilliant though he has hesitated, unfortunately for him, as it was personally good)
4. Montebourg (better than in the debate, but less good than Valls in the personal speech)
(the last 2 missed an opportunity)

5. Baylet
6. Royal (a conclusion that was a good resume of the rest of her TV session: she is so passé, now...)

Overall, it's a draw between Hollande and Aubry.

I was surprised Aubry seemed to try to do what the medias wanted her to do and what many French people who won't GOTV are interested in: fighting.
But, of course, she has revealed Hollande's weakness in personal fighting.
So, that's mixed.

Hollande knew clearly what to say to old voters of the PS (those who will GOTV), but he also was surprisingly weak when Aubry attacked him on budget aims and on education (paradoxically, he was better on nuclear subjects, because she wasn't as clear as she said).
So, that's mixed for him too.

Both Hollande and Aubry weren't excellent, far from it, and had Sarkozy changed his track earlier, he would have had a real chance, because he is a greater campaigner and a breater debater.... but that's too late now.

It was globally very good for Valls, but he is too on the right to be able to gain grounds.
It was globally good for Montebourg, though he was weaker in the debate.
Baylet was happy to be there, but now the PRG will only be known for one thing: legalization of cannabls ;D :P What Herriot and Daladier would think !!! ;D

And, of course, Royal has completely lost the night. But, as she is now supported only by her hardocre fans, maybe she won't lose ground in polls... :P

So, that's a bad thing for the right:
- Royal down,
- Aubry and Hollande training for the big rendez-vous of 2012,
- many ideas repeated all the night on subjects which many French people don't understand (a "cultural" brainwashing in favour of the left, if you prefer ;D),
- questions by Fabien Namias of quite good quality (Pujadas is a crap and Fressoz too, as usual) and then answers of generally good quality (except from hesitating Royal and loony Baylet)
- two promising guys (Valls and Montebourg) already trained for big media events,
- globally speaking, a unity that still stands,
- no noise from Mélenchon, Joly, Besancenot or Laguiller.

Quite a good night for the PS, really, whatever the medias are now saying on a "boring" TV session.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 16, 2011, 03:29:39 AM
Yeah, I think the overall impact for the PS is positive, because everybody has made it clear it will be loyal to the winner, nobody threw stupid personal attacks and we had clear ideological distinctions but at the same time no programmatic incompatibilities (well, if it were about Valls vs Montebourg, there would be of course :P).

So yeah, a good audicence (about 5 mio. apparently) will likely help improving the image of PS overall. It's doubtful if medias will report this objectively, but anyways that could hardly have been better. As for the candidates themselves, I'd agree with you that it's mostly a tie, with a good Baylet and Montebourg showing (IMO) and a poor Royal performance.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on September 20, 2011, 12:43:31 AM
BVA poll for Orange and regional press, 16-18 September 2011, sample 2624

(format stoled to fab, sorry)

Out of this whole sample, you have 473 persons "certain" to vote and 723 persons who may vote.
Globally, out of the whole sample, you've got 1301 leftists.

Among the 473 sample:
Hollande 43
Aubry 28
Royal 12
Montebourg 9
Valls 7
Baylet 1

Among the 723 sample
Hollande 45
Aubry 26
Royal 11
Montebourg 10
Valls 7
Baylet 1

Among the 1301 leftists:
Hollande 44
Aubry 28

Montebourg 11 (!!)
Royal 9
Valls 7
Baylet 1


And, on a 914 persons sample of people which listened a part of the debate, was the candidate convincing?
Among the sample/ among people sure of voting / Among people which watched the whole debate
Hollande 64 / 77 / 71
Valls 58 / 64 / 58
Aubry 55 / 76 / 63
Montebourg 52 / 70 / 62
Royal 29 / 46 / 36
Baylet 17 / 25 / 21


So, very good for Valls and Montebourg, bad for Royal, but it seems it is not a surprise. Baylet is still irrelevent.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 20, 2011, 01:59:43 AM
I've come to the conclusion Aubry is lost. She's not gained any ground and DSK basically ruined all her credibility by admitting they had an agreement (what an asshole).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on September 20, 2011, 03:00:52 AM
DSK basically ruined all her credibility by admitting they had an agreement (what an asshole).

Well, truth is good, no?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 20, 2011, 03:07:54 AM
DSK basically ruined all her credibility by admitting they had an agreement (what an asshole).

Well, truth is good, no?

Depends for who. It would be fine if voters weren't idiots by caring about stupid things like whether or not she would have run if DSK had run too.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 20, 2011, 12:02:16 PM
BVA poll for Orange and regional press, 16-18 September 2011, sample 2624

(format stoled to fab, sorry) on the contrary, fine ! ;)

Out of this whole sample, you have 473 persons "certain" to vote and 723 persons who may vote.
Globally, out of the whole sample, you've got 1301 leftists.

Among the 473 sample:
Hollande 43
Aubry 28
Royal 12
Montebourg 9
Valls 7
Baylet 1

Among the 723 sample
Hollande 45
Aubry 26
Royal 11
Montebourg 10
Valls 7
Baylet 1

Among the 1301 leftists:
Hollande 44
Aubry 28

Montebourg 11 (!!)
Royal 9
Valls 7
Baylet 1


And, on a 914 persons sample of people which listened a part of the debate, was the candidate convincing?
Among the sample/ among people sure of voting / Among people which watched the whole debate
Hollande 64 / 77 / 71
Valls 58 / 64 / 58
Aubry 55 / 76 / 63
Montebourg 52 / 70 / 62
Royal 29 / 46 / 36
Baylet 17 / 25 / 21


So, very good for Valls and Montebourg, bad for Royal, but it seems it is not a surprise. Baylet is still irrelevent.

Well, at least, what I felt after the debate was "good" (:P):
Montebourg and Valls winners
draw for Hollande and Aubry
failure for Royal

With Valls and Montebourg up, it's good for Aubry, indirectly, as Hollande is a bit down and as there won't be just one strong third, but 3 of them with whom to negotiate...
And the risk for Hollande is to see the momentum fade away...

Sure, for the moment, if Hollande is above 40 and Aubry below 30, well, the winner in the first round would be clear. But there are still 2 debates, on i-Télé and then BFM-TV, 2 "trash" TVs or, at least, less brezhnevised TVs than France 2.
So, better conditions for Aubry than for Hollande as he has proven worse than her in a real debate.

Hollande hasn't won yet, far from it.

Don't know if DSK's "death kiss" to Aubry will really have an effect.
Sure, the medias ahev begun a negative stage for Aubry, preventing her from talking about anything else, again.
But French people aren't political nerds...

But let's hope the presidential election will be as suspenseful as the primary one. I doubt it, though...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 20, 2011, 04:34:09 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #20 - 19 September 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until October at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

19 September Aubry sub-tracker      

Arthaud   0,76
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   5,69
Chevènement   0,35
Aubry   26,20
Joly   5,77
Bayrou   6,63
Borloo   7,21
Villepin   3,30
Nihous   0,35
Boutin   0,59
Sarkozy   24,60
Dupont-Aignan   0,76
Le Pen   17,42




19 September Hollande sub-tracker   
   
Arthaud   0,73
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   5,04
Chevènement   0,18
Hollande   29,91
Joly   6,02
Bayrou   6,29
Borloo   6,59
Villepin   2,91
Nihous   0,18
Boutin   0,59
Sarkozy   24,17
Dupont-Aignan   0,67
Le Pen   16,38

   


19 September generic PS candidate sub-tracker
   
Arthaud   0,75
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   5,30
Chevènement   0,25
PS   28,43
Joly   5,92
Bayrou   6,43
Borloo   6,84
Villepin   3,07
Nihous   0,25
Boutin   0,59
Sarkozy   24,34
Dupont-Aignan   0,71
Le Pen   16,80


No new poll, no change, as we've got 5 polls managed exactly the same week.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2011, 02:30:42 AM
Only 0.6 for Hollande ? That's getting ridiculous. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2011, 04:23:27 AM
Fab, the Aubry total adds up to 99.96%. Some missing 1/10000th points somewhere ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 21, 2011, 05:16:22 AM
The latest polls on second rounds have Hollande at less than 60% and, in the BVA poll, Aubry didn't gain ground but Hollande was slightly down due to Montebourg and Valls rises.

The situation is more and more tense inside the PS and the next debates may well be bloodier.
Hollande isn't so good in debate.

So, I stick to 0.6 ;)

As for Aubry sub-tracker, yep, only many 1/100ths rounded in the same way
No "structural" problem.



TNS-SOFRES poll for Canal+, 13-14 September 2011, sample 977

It's more a poll about 2017 or a poll to make us regret there is no primary inside the UMP :(

Who embodies best the future of the UMP ?

among the whole sample / among self-declared UMPers (don't know the size of this sub-sample):

Fillon 40 / 70
Copé 19 / 35
Baroin 14 / 19
NKM 11 / 14
Bertrand 10 / 17
Pécresse 10 / 17
Dati 10 / 9
Besson 5 / 4
Wauquiez 4 / 2
Le Maire 3 / 4
Morano 3 / 6
Lefebvre 2 / 4
none of them 14 / 5

Of course and unfortunately, it's mostly about name recognition.

Fillon is far too high: he is weak inside the party.
Wauquiez is surprisingly low.
Dati is stupidly high ("future of the UMP" ? ROFL).

Morano and Lefebvre are big jokes and shouldn't have been included in this list,
where Chatel and... Juppé (;D) aren't,
where Alliot-Marie isn't either (though she is now, indeed, sidelined),
where Apparu, Estrosi, Jouanno and Mariani could have been included too, even Bussereau and Novelli.

How happy the leftists must be to be able to vote in primaries: I'm so sad... :( ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2011, 02:21:00 PM
How happy the leftists must be to be able to vote in primaries: I'm so sad... :( ;)

Every side has its advantages and inconvenients. ;) You win 75% of national elections. ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 21, 2011, 11:58:21 PM
Looks like your prophecy about Karachi is finally realizing. ;D

The question is : will the mass media *coughTF1cough* talk about it ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 22, 2011, 03:46:18 AM
Looks like your prophecy about Karachi is finally realizing. ;D


Yeah... Bazire... c'est du lourd ;)



CSA poll for BFM TV, RMC and 20 Minutes, 19-20 September 2011, 835 RVs out of a whole sample of 1005

Is CSA back to its crappiness of  2007 ? :P

Hollande 28 / Aubry 27 / Royal 19
Sarkozy 24 / 25 / 26
Le Pen 18 / 19 / 20
Bayrou 7 / 6 / 7
Borloo 5 / 5 / 6
Villepin 5 / 5 / 5
Mélenchon 6 / 6 / 8
Joly 4 / 5 / 6
Arthaud 1.5 / 0.5 / 1
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Boutin 0.5 / 0.5 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

So, suddenly, Panzergirl is up by 3 points in CSA polls ?
Mmmmm... they may be back to their "corrections"...

What is coherent with other pollsters is that Borloo is down a bit and Bayrou a little stronger.
Still no Nihous tested.

What is even "worse" is the numbers for the PS primary. Don't ask for the size of their samples...

Among those certain or likely to vote (14% of the RVs sample) / among self-declared socialists certain or likely to vote (we don't know how many people it means...):
Hollande 34 (-3) / 47 (+2)
Aubry 27 (-4) / 31 (-8) ROFL !
Royal 19 (+3) LOL ! / 9
Montebourg 6 / 4
Valls 4 / 5
Baylet 1 / 1
none of them 3 / 1
don't know 6 / 2

Hollande 52 / 57
Aubry 40/ 40

Hollande 66 / 84
Royal 27 / 15

Aubry 66 / 82
Royal 24 / 14

These changes for Hollande, Aubry and Royal in the first round of the primary are a bit ridiculous and it casts a dark light on every other number of this poll... sigh...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 22, 2011, 04:04:05 AM
Villepin at 5%... ::)

Anyways, the question of media coverage is important : I'll exceptionally watch TF1's "13 heures" to have an idea of what the average ignorant will learn about this story.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 22, 2011, 04:13:37 AM
Villepin at 5%... ::)

Anyways, the question of media coverage is important : I'll exceptionally watch TF1's "13 heures" to have an idea of what the average ignorant will learn about this story.

Well, of course, if you judge based only on Pernaut, Karachi affair won't be one ;D :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 22, 2011, 06:25:00 AM
Pernault did talk about it : wow ! :o It was only the third news, but still. It must be something really big. ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Umengus on September 22, 2011, 12:52:17 PM
Looks like your prophecy about Karachi is finally realizing. ;D


Yeah... Bazire... c'est du lourd ;)



CSA poll for BFM TV, RMC and 20 Minutes, 19-20 September 2011, 835 RVs out of a whole sample of 1005

Is CSA back to its crappiness of  2007 ? :P

Hollande 28 / Aubry 27 / Royal 19
Sarkozy 24 / 25 / 26
Le Pen 18 / 19 / 20
Bayrou 7 / 6 / 7
Borloo 5 / 5 / 6
Villepin 5 / 5 / 5
Mélenchon 6 / 6 / 8
Joly 4 / 5 / 6
Arthaud 1.5 / 0.5 / 1
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Boutin 0.5 / 0.5 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

So, suddenly, Panzergirl is up by 3 points in CSA polls ?
Mmmmm... they may be back to their "corrections"...

What is coherent with other pollsters is that Borloo is down a bit and Bayrou a little stronger.
Still no Nihous tested.

What is even "worse" is the numbers for the PS primary. Don't ask for the size of their samples...

Among those certain or likely to vote (14% of the RVs sample) / among self-declared socialists certain or likely to vote (we don't know how many people it means...):
Hollande 34 (-3) / 47 (+2)
Aubry 27 (-4) / 31 (-8) ROFL !
Royal 19 (+3) LOL ! / 9
Montebourg 6 / 4
Valls 4 / 5
Baylet 1 / 1
none of them 3 / 1
don't know 6 / 2

Hollande 52 / 57
Aubry 40/ 40

Hollande 66 / 84
Royal 27 / 15

Aubry 66 / 82
Royal 24 / 14

These changes for Hollande, Aubry and Royal in the first round of the primary are a bit ridiculous and it casts a dark light on every other number of this poll... sigh...


Pollster, Jerome Sainte marie, says this time the result of le pen is solid.
http://www.20minutes.fr/presidentielle/792084-sondage-presidentielle-premier-tour-pen-bondit-sarkozy-stagne

ANd her former CSA result was of course an outlier because other polls gave her at 20 %


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 23, 2011, 01:37:54 AM
Just to be clear:
CSA was indeed below the others for Panzergirl and was probably wrong in this.
What is worrying is that this sudden and huge correction puts again doubts on CSA (and the numbers on the PS primary only worsen their case).

IFOP seems to be best for the moment (though it's difficult to know which pollster is the best without real results :P), IPSOS may be back to a "good" stance and OpinionWay seems surprisingly reasonable.

Time will tell us who we should have believed ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 23, 2011, 01:53:02 AM
LOL @ CSA. First they ask people how they would vote, then they set arbitrary numbers in order to "account for underpolling". :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 23, 2011, 03:09:11 AM
Usually, I hate popularity polls: they are stupid things; based on them, Kouchner, Yade, Veil or even Besancenot should have been presidents...

But the latest IPSOS monthly poll (published 4 days ago) has something very special:

EVERY politician from the UMP (whether it's Hortefeux or NKM, Guéant or Pécresse: really everybody from any wing) or from other rightist parties (incl. Borloo, Morin, Villepin) is DOWN,

EVERY other politician is UP, whether from the PS, the Greens, the far-left or the FN (only Mélenchon is just stable).

If this doesn't mean something... :(

At least, I hope that the coming Sarkozy disaster in 2012 will also engulf Copé, Bertrand, Baroin, Chatel, Villepin,
so that we don't face the exact same problems in the future...
Ah, if only we've got only Juppé, Fillon, NKM, Pécresse, Le Maire...
Let's stop shenanigans, let's put money far away, let's be serious.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 23, 2011, 06:44:57 AM
At least, I hope that the coming Sarkozy disaster in 2012 will also engulf Copé, Bertrand, Baroin, Chatel, Villepin,

We do agree on something. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 25, 2011, 05:55:54 PM
Could anyone who's following this more closely tell me a bit about Montebourg? Seems like a decent enough candidate, but i'm failing to find much in the British media. I'd look in the French media, but my French isn't exactly amazing.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on September 25, 2011, 06:10:49 PM
Could anyone who's following this more closely tell me a bit about Montebourg? Seems like a decent enough candidate, but i'm failing to find much in the British media. I'd look in the French media, but my French isn't exactly amazing.

Montebourg is one of the most arrogant, egotistical guys out there. He lives for and by media cameras and loves to put on little shows to posture himself. Even by French standards he's a massive egomaniac. That guy is in love with himself and attempts to turn himself into some American-like Obama-icon to the point where it's downright pathetic (stuff like ending his 'campaign ad' with "Je suis Arnaud Montebourg et j'approuve ce message"). He also pathetically puts on that "down-to-earth rural guy" figure and talks like a 70-year old farmer when he's in his constituency. He's also quite a liar: he was for a long time a populist crusader against the cumul, but in 2008 he didn't find it morally reprehensible for him to become president of his department's general council. I've hated his guts since 2007 or so, so I'm biased, but, look at how he acts. It's so fake it's pathetic and he's so arrogant it's crazy.

Policy-wise, he's the most left-wing of the candidates. Unreasonable stuff like shutting down ratings agency, massive tax hikes on big business, banning speculation for French banks or crazy regulations on banks which might be appealing in theory but totally unreasonable and inapplicable.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 25, 2011, 06:16:52 PM
Could anyone who's following this more closely tell me a bit about Montebourg? Seems like a decent enough candidate, but i'm failing to find much in the British media. I'd look in the French media, but my French isn't exactly amazing.

Montebourg is one of the most arrogant, egotistical guys out there. He lives for and by media cameras and loves to put on little shows to posture himself. Even by French standards he's a massive egomaniac. That guy is in love with himself and attempts to turn himself into some American-like Obama-icon to the point where it's downright pathetic (stuff like ending his 'campaign ad' with "Je suis Arnaud Montebourg et j'approuve ce message"). He also pathetically puts on that "down-to-earth rural guy" figure and talks like a 70-year old farmer when he's in his constituency. He's also quite a liar: he was for a long time a populist crusader against the cumul, but in 2008 he didn't find it morally reprehensible for him to become president of his department's general council. I've hated his guts since 2007 or so, so I'm biased, but, look at how he acts. It's so fake it's pathetic and he's so arrogant it's crazy.

I'd sort've picked up on some of that. The whole Ideas and Dreams thing is a bit... eugh. And is the 6th Republic thing serious, or just a cheesy campaign hook like 'Big Society'?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on September 25, 2011, 07:19:11 PM
Could anyone who's following this more closely tell me a bit about Montebourg? Seems like a decent enough candidate, but i'm failing to find much in the British media. I'd look in the French media, but my French isn't exactly amazing.

Montebourg is one of the most arrogant, egotistical guys out there. He lives for and by media cameras and loves to put on little shows to posture himself. Even by French standards he's a massive egomaniac. That guy is in love with himself and attempts to turn himself into some American-like Obama-icon to the point where it's downright pathetic (stuff like ending his 'campaign ad' with "Je suis Arnaud Montebourg et j'approuve ce message"). He also pathetically puts on that "down-to-earth rural guy" figure and talks like a 70-year old farmer when he's in his constituency. He's also quite a liar: he was for a long time a populist crusader against the cumul, but in 2008 he didn't find it morally reprehensible for him to become president of his department's general council. I've hated his guts since 2007 or so, so I'm biased, but, look at how he acts. It's so fake it's pathetic and he's so arrogant it's crazy.

I'd sort've picked up on some of that. The whole Ideas and Dreams thing is a bit... eugh. And is the 6th Republic thing serious, or just a cheesy campaign hook like 'Big Society'?

He's been raving about the Sixth Republic for quite some time (2003-2004 or so), and he might be serious about it, but it will not be realized any time soon.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 26, 2011, 01:53:02 AM
Someone called François Mitterrand was elected also to reform deeply the Constitution...

Even Chirac messed it up reformed it more.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 26, 2011, 03:42:07 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #21 - 26 September 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until October at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

26 September Aubry sub-tracker      

Arthaud   0,71
Poutou   0,37
Mélenchon   5,75
Chevènement   0,28
Aubry   26,38
Joly   5,61
Bayrou   6,49
Borloo   6,72
Villepin   3,67
Nihous   0,28
Boutin   0,57
Sarkozy   24,68
Dupont-Aignan   0,70
Le Pen   17,79

   


26 September Hollande sub-tracker
   
Arthaud   0,90
Poutou   0,37
Mélenchon   5,24
Chevènement   0,14
Hollande   29,51
Joly   5,59
Bayrou   6,44
Borloo   6,23
Villepin   3,37
Nihous   0,14
Boutin   0,57
Sarkozy   24,12
Dupont-Aignan   0,63
Le Pen   16,75




26 September generic PS candidate sub-tracker   
   
Arthaud   0,82
Poutou   0,37
Mélenchon   5,44
Chevènement   0,20
PS   28,26
Joly   5,59
Bayrou   6,46
Borloo   6,43
Villepin   3,49
Nihous   0,20
Boutin   0,57
Sarkozy   24,34
Dupont-Aignan   0,66
Le Pen   17,16


The only reliable trend nowadays is the decrease of Borloo.
Joly isn't in good shape too, while Villepin and Le Pen are slightly on the rise.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 27, 2011, 01:39:30 AM
It will be interesting to see if the next polls show a post-Senate bounce (and also how much impact the "Karachigate" will have).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 27, 2011, 05:09:50 PM
It will be interesting to see if the next polls show a post-Senate bounce (and also how much impact the "Karachigate" will have).

I suppose I'll move to France if socialists beat Sarko in 2012, and everything goes as expected here and PP wins the GE as they did last May, winning everywhere...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Iannis on September 28, 2011, 03:35:00 AM
It will be interesting to see if the next polls show a post-Senate bounce (and also how much impact the "Karachigate" will have).

I suppose I'll move to France if socialists beat Sarko in 2012, and everything goes as expected here and PP wins the GE as they did last May, winning everywhere...

If all the people that, taken by some political frenzy, declared (also in Italy) that they would emigrate in case of defeat, actually had done it, now some country would be half empty and others overcrowded. Needless to say that nothing ever happened


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 28, 2011, 07:05:15 AM
OpinionWay-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro and LCI, 23-26 September 2011, sample 2712

sub-samples: 1133 leftist RVs
681 socialist RVs
204 potential voters (18% of the first sub-sample)

Among leftists / among socialists / among potential voters:
Hollande 43 / 46 / 46
Aubry 30 / 33 / 24

Royal 11 / 11 / 13
Montebourg 10 / 6 / 12
Valls 5 / 4 / 5
Baylet 1 / 0 / 0
don't know 11 / 5 / 0

Hollande is slightly up or down depending on the category, but globally stable.
Aubry stable.
Royal down.
Montebourg up.
Valls just erases his previous losses.
The effect of the first debate is clear.

2nd round:
Hollande 57 / 57 / 58
Aubry 43 / 43 / 42

44% of Royal voters switch to Hollande and 33% to Aubry : surprising, but the sample is very tiny now...
33% of Montebourg voters to Hollande and 51% to Aubry: more logical.
43% of Valls voters to Hollande and 23% to Aubry.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 28, 2011, 07:13:40 AM
IPSOS-Logica poll for Le Monde, Radio France and France Télévisions, 21-26 September 2011, sample 4742

Among the 9% who are "certain" to vote (with definitive choice):

Hollande 44 (61)
Aubry 27 (49)
Royal 13 (43)
Montebourg 10 (49)
Valls 5
Baylet 1
don't know 12

Too bad for Aubry that people are more certain to vote for Hollande...
But, conversely, maybe she has some reinforcements available from Royal or even Montebourg.

In other polls, Hollande has the highest credibility on many policy items and on many behavioural points, except on authority and dynamism: the only way for Aubry to try to weaken him...
And it seems that proposals are now again more important than the ability to beat Sarkozy: again something she can use (Montebourg is already using it).

2nd round:
Hollande 59 (67)
Aubry 41 (60)

Aubry 73
Royal 27

Hollande 75
Royal 25

49% of Royal voters switch to Aubry and 35% to Hollande: here, this is logical !
36% of Montebourg voters to Aubry and 52% to Hollande: well, not here...

Basically, Hollande is still high and favourite, but he still can't reach 50% in a clear way (44% with 12% of "don't know", that may be enough, but probably not) and the mobilization seems to rise among Greens and radical left, hence a better thing for Aubry (or Montebourg !).

Let's see the effect of the 2nd debate, tonight, 18:00 CET, on i-Télé, LCP Assemblée Nationale and Public Sénat (I'm sure you'll be able to watch it, Hash ;)).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 28, 2011, 01:10:05 PM
200 is not a representative sample, let alone tinier ones... I'm not saying that because I don't believe polls (they all show roughly the same numbers, so it's evident Hollande is a huge favorite), but those who criticize primary polls have legitimate grounds.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 28, 2011, 02:33:43 PM
Well, Hollande is the winner of tonight's debate.

He wasn't good on ideas and details (as usual :P), BUT:

- there was a draw between Aubry, Royal, Montebourg and Valls, because Royal was better, Aubry was less good and they have fought with each other,

- he was always outside the fightings and seemed clear (though he wasn't in fact),

- as nobody else has clearly won (Montebourg wasn't as good as in the first debate), Hollande has won.

The problems of Aubry:
- Montebourg attacked on Guérini and she overreacted (weird...): she has put herself in difficulty,
- as the general trend was "Let's go plain left !!!", she was forced to be herself more on the left and to appear "older" and so, Hollande, who was more moderate, was more central tonight.

Even Baylet was better and it has helped Hollande, as they were the only 2 to seem calm and less negative.

Valls was good in the end and was able to put forward his specificities, BUT not very clearly and in details and, what is more, he was really bad on social VAT, unable to defend the idea after having put it forward courageously.

So, globally:

1. Hollande
2. Montebourg
3. Royal
4. Valls
5. Baylet
6. Aubry

though it was more a general draw than in the first debate, where Royal was a clear loser and Montebourg and Valls clear winners.

There is going to be an after-debate poll from Sofres in half an hour: "americanized" we become ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 28, 2011, 02:42:36 PM
Couldn't watch the debate because of Sciences Po course. ;) Don't know if I4d have watched it anyways, because I don't have I-Télé and didn't really want to watch it online.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 28, 2011, 02:53:01 PM
Couldn't watch the debate because of Sciences Po course. ;) Don't know if I4d have watched it anyways, because I don't have I-Télé and didn't really want to watch it online.

Too bad, you would have liked it. As a socialist, I mean ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 28, 2011, 03:59:50 PM
Where can I see the results of the Sofres poll?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 28, 2011, 04:05:18 PM
Nowhere for the moment.
They have just read it on TV.

Here are the main numbers I was able to write down:

sample 1800 people who have watched the debate (change before/after the debate):

good image:
Hollande 78 (+8)
Aubry 64 (+7)
Montebourg 62 (+15)
Valls 62 (+13)
Royal 48 (+11)
Baylet 34 (+20)

most convincing:
Hollande 41
Aubry 27
Montebourg 25
Valls 23
Royal 13
Baylet 6

most able to win in 2012:
Hollande 65
Aubry 30
Montebourg 11
Valls 11
Royal 10
Baylet 3

Globally speaking (there were results by themes), each candidate was convincing on themes on which he/she was already strong...

Hollande hasn't made real progress tonight, BUT Aubry is stable or down and Montebourg and Valls are threatening for her, while Royal is out.
So, yes, probably a good night for Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 28, 2011, 04:08:56 PM
Thanks, fab. It was a good night for Hollande because nothing interesting happened. He's still the frontrunner, and Aubry a distant second =(

However, the "most convincing" question has more than 100% of the vote overall xD how's that possible? I hope Hollande is the most convincing for 31% of the people, not 41%...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 28, 2011, 04:42:31 PM
It was probably just "convincing", not "the most convincing".
It wasn't very clear....


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Andrea on September 29, 2011, 07:56:37 AM
Always from the TNS-Sofres poll

best candidate for presidency

Hollande 44
Aubry 20
Montebourg 12
Valls 14
Royal 8
Baylet 2

most sincere


Hollande 31
Aubry 26
Montebourg 23
Valls 28
Royal 15
Baylet 12

most dinamique

Hollande  24
Aubry 20
Montebourg 34
Valls 37
Royal 18
Baylet 4

most competent

Hollande 53
Aubry 32
Montebourg 17
Valls 18
Royal 13
Baylet 5

most credible on economy and growth

Hollande 48
Aubry 25
Montebourg 22
Valls 18
Royal 13
Baylet 6

most credible on fiscalité and defiction reduction

Hollande 45
Aubry 24
Montebourg 22
Valls 20
Royal  14
Baylet 7

most credibile on law and order (securité)

Hollande  31
Aubry 23
Montebourg 15
Valls 31
Royal  22
Baylet 7

most credible on social protection


Hollande 32
Aubry 39
Montebourg 14
Valls 13
Royal 23
Baylet 9




Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on September 29, 2011, 10:54:51 AM
Some others results below. Nothing really surprising, but the "most leftist"/"most rightist" are funny, though. And Baylet is surprisingly high in the whole poll, of course.

() (http://www.servimg.com/image_preview.php?i=180&u=11949248)

() (http://www.servimg.com/image_preview.php?i=182&u=11949248)

() (http://www.servimg.com/image_preview.php?i=183&u=11949248)

() (http://www.servimg.com/image_preview.php?i=184&u=11949248)

() (http://www.servimg.com/image_preview.php?i=185&u=11949248)

() (http://www.servimg.com/image_preview.php?i=186&u=11949248)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 29, 2011, 11:41:48 AM
Hollande more credible on "social" stuff (unemployment, cost of living...) : that means Aubry is really done.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on September 29, 2011, 11:55:15 AM
Just watched a good part of the debate. Clearly, Valls is the only adult on stage and the only candidate who has an honest, pragmatic understanding of the economy. It's really a pity he isn't doing better, because he is what the left needs: a pragmatic, moderate, intelligent, young and reasonable voice. His economic policies are the only ones which I find have a dose of reality and sense, and practically the only ones which are policies which are fit for 2011 and not the 1950s. He's also good on security and immigration. Hollande and Aubry are both terribly boring and stale, but Hollande is credible and sane on fiscal and economic issues but he's generally boring and he has a weird way of talking. Aubry is boring. Baylet is pretty cool and is also pretty reasonable on the issues, but I have a hard time taking any politician with a southern accent seriously.

Montebourg and Royal are both mad lunatics who act like its still 1950. Reindustrialization/protectionism/nationalization and all that failed statism. Seriously? Thankfully those two looney tunes aren't going anywhere, because if they were anywhere near power they would run France into the ground like Mitterrand did in his first two years. My opinion of Montebourg did increase minimally despite all this, as he at least presented his insanity pretty sanely and intelligently. Royal is clearly a psycho, though, and a weird syncretic mix of fraudulent socialist populism and old right nationalism.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 29, 2011, 04:44:22 PM
Imagine if I had written what Hash wrote... ;D

There is also one measure that Royal pushed but got unnoticed: to guarantee minimal pay rise for every worker throughout his/her career !!!
De facto, it's like transforming everybody in a civil servant :P
Amazing... even more than nationalizations, protectionism or administrative authorization of layoffs.



Final debate on Wednesday next week, on BFM-TV and LCP-Assemblée Nationale-Public Sénat, at 20:30 CET.

I hope Hollande will have prepared a "surprise" for the debate.
Or, more subtle, creating a real event on the day after the debate, to delete every negative effect or demobilization.
We'll see if he has a really professional campaign ;).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 29, 2011, 05:34:19 PM
You can say whatever you want about Royal... BUT I STILL LIKE HER!!!

However, I support Aubry, of course... The Spanish one hasn't got a chance, and Hollande seems to be just OK...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 29, 2011, 05:50:02 PM
You can say whatever you want about Royal... BUT I STILL LIKE HER!!!


She's funny crazy, not crazy crazy. Still vote for her over Sarko and obviously Marine.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on September 30, 2011, 01:49:03 AM
Always from the TNS-Sofres poll (sample 1859)

best candidate for presidency

Hollande 44 (-4)
Aubry 20 (-3)
Montebourg 12 (+4)
Valls 14 (+2)
Royal 8 (+1)
Baylet 2 (=)


Eventually, this is probably the most interesting result, as it shows Hollande wasn't very good, but neither was Aubry: this is her problem.
Montebourg and Valls are up and she is still not able to gain ground, compared to Hollande.

On the different themes, Hollande has the position of a sort of a strong Romney :P : maybe he isn't the best each time, but his main adversary is never the same.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 03, 2011, 01:48:20 AM
Shocker : Borloo not running. It looks like he wasn't as "willing" as he made us believe...

So, Fab, what happens now ? Will Morin take his place (at some point he seemed quite willing to run) ? Otherwise, where will his voters go ? Medias keep saying this is wonderful news for Sarkozy, but I doubt all his voters will go to him. A few of those will, but there could be a lot of transfers to Bayrou, Joly or even Hollande. What do you think ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 03, 2011, 02:20:02 AM
No Internet for me since Friday: a phone cable is cut, not far away from my home... living in the countryside is sometimes.... eh.... ;D

So, let's talk about this BREAKING NEWS !!!!

Schivardi won't be a candidate in 2012 and the POI will "concentrate itself on legislative elections".
Good news for Mélenchon.



Oh yes, Borloo won't be a candidate either :P.
Well, again, I've failed in my prognosis (though, when you know the messy Borloo, that's not really a surprise... but signs were in favour of his candidacy... maybe the not-so-good result of Valérie Létard for the Senate presidency has hastened his decision)

I really don't understand Sarkozy any longer... it's BAD news for him, not good ones...

1) Borloo was an asset, because he could have rallied people to Sarkozy in the second round, not just by calling to GOTV for him, but by being prominent in the medias and, next, appearing as an open, reassuring, moderate, PM-in-the-waiting for Sarkozy.

Now, Sarkozy is even more crushed between Le Pen and... Hollande.
Remember what I kept saying about DSK ? Sarkozy was in a vicious circle between the two, losing the centre-right voters when he spoke on security and immigration, losing the strong right voters when he spoke about Europe and social policies.

He's now in the same trap and the socialist and leftist voters should understand that Hollande is ideally positioned: remember all these polls, with many Borloo voters appealed by Hollande (far more than by Aubry, of course) ? Now, they will be caught by Hollande as soon as in the 1st round.

Hollande is not enthusiasm-prone, but he is the real candidate of the "useful vote".

2) With Borloo out, expect many more polls with Fillon and Juppé hypotheses. There is already one from crap pollster LH2 (I'll publish it later).

And this two will have more support in a time when a lot of noise is made about Sarkozy's illegitimate candidacy.
Of course, as we are now in a really Americanized system (the UMP will have primaries in 2017), the incumbent, even doomed, will be a candidate again.
But Borloo dropping, there will be even more unrest inside the right.

And I'm not even talking about Villepin gaining some points in the polls :P

3) Morin will think about himself as the new Path ;D Whether he is eventually candidate until the end or not, he is negligible.

What is more, in an already messy centre (radicals not convinced by Borloo; NC split between borlooists like Lagarde, morinists and those in-between mostly concerned about their portfolios in Sarkozy's team like Sauvadet and Leroy; AC split between strict centrists and those open to the NC; etc), Borloo has weakened himself and will weaken the centre even more....

All what is tested now inside the right (trying to create a moderate and social wing inside the UMP) is too slow and too late.
So Sarkozy won't have a moderate candidate beside him to be a complement.

I think he is even more doomed now.



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 03, 2011, 03:10:01 AM
Harris Interactive poll for LCP, 28-29 September 2011, 1590 RVs

wishes of victory in the primary:
(among leftists/among socialists)

Hollande 40 / 49
Aubry 28 / 26
Montebourg 12 / 9
Royal 6 / 6
Valls 4 / 5
Baylet 1 / 0
none of them 9 / 5

Royal is clearly down. But you'll see below that IFOP don't put her in 4th place.

convincing in the second debate ("very" or "rather" convincing) / not convincing ("not at all" or "not really"):
Hollande 42 / 33
Aubry 33 / 42
Montebourg 31 / 44
Royal 19 / 56
Valls 33 / 42
Baylet 15 / 60

So, in relative terms, it was neutral for Aubry (though bad in absolute terms) and Hollande, good for Montebourg (though slightly disappointing in absolute terms) and Valls, bad for Royal.

Hollande seems to have cemented a support which didn't decrease even when his "champion" isn't overwhelmingly good.



IFOP poll for Le Journal du Dimanche, 15-16 September, 22-23 September, 29-30 September 2011, 782 self-declared socialists out of 1434 self-declared leftists out of a whole sample of 2878

among leftists / among leftists certain to vote / among socialists

Hollande 42 / 46 / 51 (and please note the 3rd wave is the best for him)
Aubry 27 / 26 / 26 (stable also through the 3 waves)
Royal 11 / 11 / 9 (the 3rd wave is her worse one)
Montebourg 8 / 7 / 5 (not really up, but he is at 9 in the 3rd wave, on par with Royal)
Valls 5 / 5 / 5 (stable also through the 3 waves)
Baylet 1 / 1 / 1
none of them 5 / 2 / 2
don't know 1 / 2 / 1

Like in the Harris poll, I don't give you the internals, but it's as usual.

So, Hollande is, as usual again, stronger among those more likely to vote and Aubry isn't able to come back, it seems.
More and more, her last chance will be the debate between the 2 rounds, as she is better at this.

Of course, samples are tiny, open primaries weren't polled until now (2006 primary was only for socialists).
But, honestly, every poll gives the same result since mid-July.
I'm beginning to believe that Hollande may win, after all :P

Oh, and second round:

Hollande 59 / 59 / 65 (he is even at 61 among leftists in the 3rd wave)
Aubry 41 / 41 / 35


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 03, 2011, 03:17:28 AM
No Internet for me since Friday: a phone cable is cut, not far away from my home... living in the countryside is sometimes.... eh.... ;D

So, let's talk about this BREAKING NEWS !!!!

Schivardi won't be a candidate in 2012 and the POI will "concentrate itself on legislative elections".
Good news for Mélenchon.



Oh yes, Borloo won't be a candidate either :P.
Well, again, I've failed in my prognosis (though, when you know the messy Borloo, that's not really a surprise... but signs were in favour of his candidacy... maybe the not-so-good result of Valérie Létard for the Senate presidency has hastened his decision)

I really don't understand Sarkozy any longer... it's BAD news for him, not good ones...

1) Borloo was an asset, because he could have rallied people to Sarkozy in the second round, not just by calling to GOTV for him, but by being prominent in the medias and, next, appearing as an open, reassuring, moderate, PM-in-the-waiting for Sarkozy.

Now, Sarkozy is even more crushed between Le Pen and... Hollande.
Remember what I kept saying about DSK ? Sarkozy was in a vicious circle between the two, losing the centre-right voters when he spoke on security and immigration, losing the strong right voters when he spoke about Europe and social policies.

He's now in the same trap and the socialist and leftist voters should understand that Hollande is ideally positioned: remember all these polls, with many Borloo voters appealed by Hollande (far more than by Aubry, of course) ? Now, they will be caught by Hollande as soon as in the 1st round.

Hollande is not enthusiasm-prone, but he is the real candidate of the "useful vote".

2) With Borloo out, expect many more polls with Fillon and Juppé hypotheses. There is already one from crap pollster LH2 (I'll publish it later).

And this two will have more support in a time when a lot of noise is made about Sarkozy's illegitimate candidacy.
Of course, as we are now in a really Americanized system (the UMP will have primaries in 2017), the incumbent, even doomed, will be a candidate again.
But Borloo dropping, there will be even more unrest inside the right.

And I'm not even talking about Villepin gaining some points in the polls :P

3) Morin will think about himself as the new Path ;D Whether he is eventually candidate until the end or not, he is negligible.

What is more, in an already messy centre (radicals not convinced by Borloo; NC split between borlooists like Lagarde, morinists and those in-between mostly concerned about their portfolios in Sarkozy's team like Sauvadet and Leroy; AC split between strict centrists and those open to the NC; etc), Borloo has weakened himself and will weaken the centre even more....

All what is tested now inside the right (trying to create a moderate and social wing inside the UMP) is too slow and too late.
So Sarkozy won't have a moderate candidate beside him to be a complement.

I think he is even more doomed now.



ViaVoice for Libération, 29 September-1 October 2011, sample 1007

Best UMP candidate for 2012:
Juppé 26 (:D)
Sarkozy 21
Fillon 16
Copé 10
another one 11
don't know 16

forecasts:
Sarkozy will lose 68
Sarkozy will win 23
don't know 9

and this one, with interesting hypotheses, though it's a crap pollster and though, with Borloo out, Fillon and Juppé may well be higher !!!!

LH2 poll for Yahoo, 30 September-1 October 2011, 843 RVs out of a whole sample of 975

Hollande 30 / 30
Fillon 15 / Juppé 16
Le Pen 15 / 16

Mélenchon 8.5 / 9
Joly 7.5 / 8.5
Bayrou 7.5 / 8
Borloo 11 / 9
Villepin 3 / 3
Boutin 1 / 0
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 0.5
Arthaud 0.5 / 0
Poutou 0 / 0

We see here that Juppé is slightly more on the centre than Fillon, but that he faces also a "technocratic image" and an old hate from people with memories of 1995 (hence good results for Joly and Mélenchon - or is it just statistical noise :P)

And another one (though still partially published):

IFOP poll for Sud-Ouest, 29-30 September 2011, sample 966

candidate wished:
(among the whole sample/among UMPers)

Sarkozy 23 / 57
Fillon 7 / 10
Juppé 4 / 8
Villepin 7 / ?
Borloo 4 / 4
Bayrou 4 / ?
Le Pen 3 / 3
Copé ? / 3

I don't know the exact question: it's of course important as people can answer for whom they'll vote, based on the assumption that Sarkozy will be the candidate at 99.9%.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 03, 2011, 11:21:10 AM
I LOVE when Fab gets utterly pessimistic. ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 03, 2011, 03:20:59 PM
The rest of this crap poll:

LH2 poll for Yahoo, 30 September-1 October 2011, 843 RVs out of a whole sample of 975

Remember ? Last ime, Le Pen was at 11, Hollande at 35 and Sarkozy at 26...
Now, Sarkozy and Aubry stumble, Le Pen is really up and Mélenchon reaches unknown climaxes...

Hollande 31 / Aubry 25
Sarkozy 21 / 21

Le Pen 15 / 14.5
Mélenchon 8 / 10
Joly 7 / 7.5
Bayrou 8 / 9
Borloo 7 / 9
Villepin 2 / 3
Boutin 0.5 / 0
Dupont-Aignan 0 / 0
Arthaud 0.5 / 1
Poutou 0 / 0

Last time, it was really an outlier, as no other poll revealed the same trends.
Will it be the same today ?
Is Mélenchon so high ?
And Sarkozy back to such lows ?

Wait and see, but they are, at least, unlucky as Borloo is already out of the race :P ...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 04, 2011, 01:38:25 AM
After all, the LH2 poll may not be completely an outlier, at least on Mélenchon and Sarkozy:

IPSOS-Logica poll, for Radio France and Le Monde, 30 September-1 October 2011, sample 962

Hollande 32 / Aubry 29 / Royal 22
Sarkozy 21 / 22 / 23
Le Pen 16 / 16 / 16
Mélenchon 8 / 7 / 9
Borloo 6.5 / 7 / 8
Bayrou 5.5 / 6 / 8.5
Joly 5 / 5 / 7
Villepin 4 / 5 / 4
Arthaud 1 / 2 / 1.5
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

Even Royal makes it to the second round now ! ;D

There is something around Mélenchon: a belated effect of the crisis ? a side-effect of Montebourg leftist success inside the PS ? all the "-gates" ? disappointment from Joly ? the fact that Panzergirl is levelling ?
Probably all those factors combined.
Is, at last, Mélenchon surging ?
It was announced so many times for more than a year now...

Sarkozy is clearly in a bad trend again, while the socialists are now very high. Probably a side-effect of the overwhelming media coverage of socialist debates and the consequence of all the "affairs".
It's all the more worrying for him that Boutin and Nihous aren't tested here.

I haven't published my tracker yesterday because I was opening a small blog :P http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
It's still under construction and it's in... French :(

But that's fine, because tonight, you'll have a tracker "with IPSOS inside" ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 04, 2011, 02:02:34 AM
Great, I'll be following your blog. :)

I'm really curious to see what will happen with Borloo's voters in the 1st round. So far, all the polls have included him...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 04, 2011, 09:59:52 AM
Fabulous blog, Fab. I'll be sure to include it on my blogroll.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 04, 2011, 01:17:07 PM
Fabulous blog, Fab. I'll be sure to include it on my blogroll.

This, Congratulations and thanks ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 04, 2011, 03:05:57 PM
Fabulous blog, Fab. I'll be sure to include it on my blogroll.

This, Congratulations and thanks ;)

I subscribe. I'll follow this bolg enthusiastically. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 04, 2011, 03:36:16 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #22 - 3 October 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until October at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

3 October Aubry sub-tracker      

Arthaud   1,03
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   6,78
Chevènement   0,17
Aubry   26,69
Joly   5,82
Bayrou   6,83
Borloo   7,15
Villepin   3,85
Nihous   0,17
Boutin   0,35
Sarkozy   23,45
Dupont-Aignan   0,53
Le Pen   16,86




3 October Hollande sub-tracker   
   
Arthaud   0,86
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   6,32
Chevènement   0,08
Hollande   30,29
Joly   5,69
Bayrou   6,54
Borloo   6,39
Villepin   3,29
Nihous   0,08
Boutin   0,44
Sarkozy   22,88
Dupont-Aignan   0,49
Le Pen   16,32




3 October generic PS candidate sub-tracker   
   
Arthaud   0,93
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   6,51
Chevènement   0,12
PS   28,85
Joly   5,74
Bayrou   6,65
Borloo   6,69
Villepin   3,52
Nihous   0,12
Boutin   0,40
Sarkozy   23,11
Dupont-Aignan   0,51
Le Pen   16,53


The only big news is that Mélenchon is clearly surging.
We'll see if it's for the long term this time.
Sarkozy is down and is heading back to his mediocre levels of last spring.
The socialist candidates are even stronger and are beginning to be impressive.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 04, 2011, 03:38:48 PM
Fabulous blog, Fab. I'll be sure to include it on my blogroll.

This, Congratulations and thanks ;)

I subscribe. I'll follow this bolg enthusiastically. :)

Thanks, my friends, but this blog doesn't deserve such enthusiasm.
It's really a humble entertainment for political nerds, nothing else.
All my speculations will probably prove wrong in the end :P ;D
But, at least, I try not to be too much influenced by the "usual pundits" ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 05, 2011, 02:28:50 AM
BVA poll for Le Nouvel Observateur, 30 September-1 October 2011, sample 1009

It was just a "duel" Juppé-Sarkozy: it's for Le Nouvel Obs, after all... ;D

Among the whole sample:
Sarkozy 32
Juppé 57

Among the whole right and the whole centre:
Sarkozy 46
Juppé 48

Among the UMPers:
Sarkozy 59
Juppé 36

Among the MoDem+Nouveau Centre supporters:
Sarkozy 22
Juppé 73

Among the FN supporters:
Sarkozy 36
Juppé 53

Juppé is, ironically, a new Balladur in his positioning: he is the candidate of the centre-right, with not-so-small a support among the extreme-right.
Only the "legitimists" of the UMP support Sarkozy.

Balladur was always vague on the subject of the FN (like Barre in a way).
Juppé isn't, as he is on the so-called chiraquian line. So, it's really surprising to see that disappointment inside the FN is so deep towards Sarkozy that they even prefer Juppé !!!



Corinne Lepage wants to be a candidate: she may have her 500 signatures.
And Jacques Cheminade too, it seems: he won't have them.

The last debate before the 1st round of the PS's open primary is tonight: 20:30 CET on BFM TV and LCP-Public Sénat.
It will be "all against Hollande", though his girlfriend's new victim status may well lessen the level of these attacks. He is really "lucky" in the course of events... and Aubry "a la poisse" !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 05, 2011, 01:04:56 PM
Last debate in 25 minutes. Hopefully we'll see interesting stuff. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 05, 2011, 03:56:31 PM
An excellent debate, with all candidates having a pretty decent showing (even Royal wasn't too awful). I think this debate will really benefit the left above all, allowing them to really develop their positions and show to the voters a pretty consistent program (because really, except Montebourg, the programs are quite similar).

As for the "winners", there is none really. Hollande was less good than in the first debate, and at some point he seemed a bit "brouillon". But at the same time Aubry wasn't particularly strong (even though she was good enough) and probably didn't create a particular momentum.

Let's see how things go, but Hollande will most probably win.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 05, 2011, 04:37:05 PM
An excellent debate, with all candidates having a pretty decent showing (even Royal wasn't too awful). I think this debate will really benefit the left above all, allowing them to really develop their positions and show to the voters a pretty consistent program (because really, except Montebourg, the programs are quite similar).

As for the "winners", there is none really. Hollande was less good than in the first debate, and at some point he seemed a bit "brouillon". But at the same time Aubry wasn't particularly strong (even though she was good enough) and probably didn't create a particular momentum.

Let's see how things go, but Hollande will most probably win.

:D
Aubry was very confusing and her conclusion was really bad: she is too stressed and mess up many things.

She has attacked Hollande in a hidden way, but I think she has missed the point: the election isn't for pundits, for political journalists and for piolitical nerds...
She has lost an opportunity.
She wasn't good, really. She was far more precise in the first 2 debates.

Hollande was void, as usual ;). A little more precise than before. Very cool and quiet. He was mediatically better than in the first 2 debates, though not very brilliant.

Montebourg was the best and Valls was quite good too.

Baylet was messy and seemed tired of the debates.

Royal was inthe repetition of the same things.

The whole debate was boring and was the worst one. The second debate was really the best.

Another big draw, with Hollande winning in such a situation...

1. Montebourg
2. Valls
3. Hollande
4. Aubry
5. Royal
6. Baylet

It's the order tonight, but with very small differences.

It was a debate for nothing...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 06, 2011, 02:56:59 AM
Hell Fab, do we really have to disagree on everything ? ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 06, 2011, 04:50:16 AM
I'm afraid yes ;)

Had you watched the second debate, you would think differently about this one, on the boring side of things (and even the messy organization... not because of the candidates, for that matter, but because of Joffrin and Mazerolle who are messy guys !) and also on Martine Aubry.

I still think Hollande has proved he has not enough strength for a face-to-face debate: if she manages to breathe (yes...), to smile (don't ask her too much...), to stop whispering while others are speaking (where was she grown up ? :P), to speak clearly and more slowly, she can eat him alive between the 2 rounds...

She is able to lie ("je n'ai jamais dit ça" ROFL) and Hollande doesn't react.
She is able to attack him personally ("gauche molle", "s'asseoir dans le fauteuil de Sarkozy", "présider demain c'est préciser aujourd'hui") and he doesn't react.
She is able to say he spends too much on education hirings and then to spend even more ("revalorisation de tous les enseignants"...) and he doesn't react.

Maybe he'll react if they are only the 2 of them and when he isn't in the same room as Ségolène (it really seems to be a psychological problem for him), but I doubt it.

I hate Aubry but I must acknowledge she is better on content, that's sure.
And Hollande's personality is too weak to preside in a period of crisis.
But, well, I can't "support" an intolerant and stubborn woman who is ideologically very dangerous for France ;D.
Don't ask me more than I can do ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 06, 2011, 05:53:34 AM
Indeed I've not watched the second debate so it's hard for me to tell. But at least compared to the 1st one what I've especially liked is the fact they developed issue in a more approfondite way. Not in the "confrontational" sense as as I've said they all agree on 99% except Montebourg, but more in a "common" way : they clearly and precisely exposed all the disasters caused by Sarkozy and the PS's solutions to fix things. As I've already said, the true winner of this debate is the PS as a whole.

As for Aubry, she's far better on content (if even you acknowledge this, it can't not be true ;D) and for this reason I think her lead, though smaller, is more solid than Hollande's. It's only a gut feeling though, so I might be wrong (and hope so since Hollande will be the PS's candidate).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 06, 2011, 11:04:32 AM
A bit late, but here are the updated graphs. ;)

Aubry

()


Hollande

()


I'll update them next week and the week after, as these will be the last two trackers before we have the eventual PS candidate.

BTW, Fab, you still put Hollande at 0.6 ? That's getting ridiculous... ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 06, 2011, 11:07:44 AM
Anyways, looks like there was indeed a tiny "post-Senate bounce" (in fact more of a post-Senate drop for Sarkozy) which put both candidates in a very comfortable position. Mélenchon surged this week (probably a side-effect of Montebourg as Fab said), and thus we have him, Borloo and Bayrou virtually tied. Now I'm really curious to see the post-Borloo polls (will they poll Morin ??).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 06, 2011, 03:50:38 PM
OpinionWay poll for LCI and Le Figaro, 5-6 October 2011, 775 self-declared socialists among 1261 self-declared leftists among a whole sample of 3102

Among the leftists, there is a sub-sample of 293 likely voters. Not a bad sample. OpinionWay has adopted an IPSOS policy it seems...

Among leftists / among socialists / among LVs
Hollande 43 / 47 / 49
Aubry 28 / 30 / 34

Royal 11 / 11 / 13
Montebourg 11 / 7 / 10
Valls 6 / 5 / 3
Baylet 1 / 0 / 1

Second round:
Hollande 58 / 59 / 60
Aubry 42 / 41 / 40

Please note that Hollande is always very high in OpinionWay polls (as Montebourg), while Aubry and Royal are higher in CSA polls.

Harris and IFOP have more often Hollande and Aubry high.

IPSOS and BVA are more in the average.

Still, Hollande is of course quite strong, but the positions seem to have stalled now.

Please go to my blog (http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/) to see a graph that I haven't seen on any site ;D.
EXCLUSIVE !
I'm pretty proud :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 07, 2011, 02:21:39 AM
()

OK, guys, here is the graph: all the polls for the French PS primary since DSK affair began !

It's based on LVs when it's possible, otherwise on the sub-sample of leftists.

Of course, it's a bit erratic, but we've got a good idea of the trends.

I bet on 41 for Hollande (yeah, a bit disappointing), 31 for Aubry (so, not dead at all), 14 for Montebourg (he is on the rise), 10 for Royal (only her fanatics), 3 for Valls (a future fine leader for the centre-right ;D), 1 for Baylet.

I'll probably be completely wrong, but that's what's funny ;).



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 07, 2011, 06:29:59 AM
Fab, what you could do to make the graphs prettier would be to replace rough lines with trendlines based on a polynomial regression. ;) It helps seeing long-term trends rather than statistical noise.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 07, 2011, 07:40:06 AM
I have linear trend and exponential trend, but they add nothing to what you can see by yourself: Hollande slightly up, Aubry down, Montebourg up and Royal slightly down ;D

Now, for a polynomial regression... we are already Friday... Sunday will come soon... ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 07, 2011, 10:28:51 AM
I have linear trend and exponential trend, but they add nothing to what you can see by yourself: Hollande slightly up, Aubry down, Montebourg up and Royal slightly down ;D

Now, for a polynomial regression... we are already Friday... Sunday will come soon... ;)

It's stronger than me, I just love pretty graphs. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 07, 2011, 10:33:39 AM
BTW, did you hear about Delanoë ? Praising Aubry, he repeated "courage" and "détermination" at least 5 times ! Hilarious. ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 08, 2011, 05:38:52 AM
Harris Interactive poll for LCP, 5-6 October 2011, sample 1855 RVs

14% certain to vote, but 18% among men, 17% among 50 years old and more, 17% among CSP+, 40% among socialists, 31% among Front de Gauche voters, 12% among far-leftists, 18% among Greens, 6% among MoDem voters.

Among leftists / among socialists
Hollande 40 / 50
Aubry 29 / 28

Montebourg 12 / 8
Royal 6 / 6
Valls 5 / 4
Baylet 1 / 1
none of them 7 / 4

The first result is the "good "one, though Harris doesn't give results among those certain to vote.
When you base the numbers only on decided votes, Hollande is at 43 and Aubry at 31: she is not dead, far from it !

In a closed primary, only among PS members, Hollande would really have crushed her !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 08, 2011, 07:33:59 AM
If the 1st number is the right one, I've some reason not to lose all hope for Aubry. ;)

Also, LOL @ Royal. ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 08, 2011, 08:27:44 AM
Go to my blog, Antonio, you'll have your polynomial regression ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 08, 2011, 08:47:37 AM
Go to my blog, Antonio, you'll have your polynomial regression ;)

You didn't see my comments ? :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 08, 2011, 03:03:05 PM
Go to my blog, Antonio, you'll have your polynomial regression ;)

You didn't see my comments ? :)

Yeah but a bit too late.

Does anyone know which channel will be the best to follow ?

I've read Hollande has selected 50 voting points to track: wish we could have the same numbers :P

We'll have to enjoy this evening and this night, as the election in 2012 may well be less suspenseful.

How I'd have loved to vote tomorrow ! :( :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 08, 2011, 03:05:55 PM
Hopefully they release results at a departmental level, or, one can hope, at a cantonal/communal level.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 08, 2011, 03:47:55 PM
Maxime Brunerie, the far-right nut who tried to shoot Chirac, has endorsed Segolene. In 2009, he had joined the MoDem. I see that the crazies attract the crazy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 08, 2011, 04:00:53 PM
Indeed, I'm expecting a fun election tomorrow. Let's see. :)

I'll ask the same, boring question as usual : when will we get the first results ? Well, at least this time there's no time zone issue. :P


Maxime Brunerie, the far-right nut who tried to shoot Chirac, has endorsed Segolene. In 2009, he had joined the MoDem. I see that the crazies attract the crazy.

ROFL. That's really the last thing she needed.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 08, 2011, 04:35:17 PM
Indeed, I'm expecting a fun election tomorrow. Let's see. :)

I'll ask the same, boring question as usual : when will we get the first results ? Well, at least this time there's no time zone issue. :P


It seems the first results will be available at 21:00, and "consolidated results" (I don't know what does it mean exactly) at 23:00. We will have two declarations about turnout level at 12:00 and 19:00. No exit polls, AFAIK.


OK, guys, here is the graph: all the polls for the French PS primary since DSK affair began !


Nice - and useful - graph for sure! You can find some others here (http://www.delitsdopinion.com/1analyses/primaire-socialiste-le-verdict-des-sondages-sera-t-il-confirme-dans-les-urnes-6363/).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 02:28:56 AM
21 ? I know polling stations will probably be overworked, but it's quite a shame it takes so much time. >:(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 02:55:44 AM
Very fine graphs, Math, "à la Pollster".

Hash, at best, we can expect results by polling stations, which means 21 in Rennes, but only on in Chateaubourg canton and only two for the whole Fougères constituency for example... I doubt someone will have the data needed to do better :(.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 08:39:48 AM
Still no turnout numbers ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 09:09:35 AM
Turnout is over 1 million now.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2011, 09:13:21 AM
Who exactly can vote today and who is expected to win ? Is there a 2nd round ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 09:20:19 AM
Who exactly can vote today and who is expected to win ? Is there a 2nd round ?

Please read earlier posts on this topic, sometimes just 1-2 pages back.

Anybody can vote as long as they pay 1 euro and sign a charter of left-wing values.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2011, 09:23:31 AM
Who exactly can vote today and who is expected to win ? Is there a 2nd round ?

Please read earlier posts on this topic, sometimes just 1-2 pages back.

Anybody can vote as long as they pay 1 euro and sign a charter of left-wing values.

Sry, I can't read 50 pages ... :P

What are the exact figures of how many of these "leftist" voters registered to vote and where can you find them ?

If everyone had to pay 1€ to register, did the money go to the PS as campaign money ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 09:42:52 AM
If you want to know who are the favorites, have a look at Fab's nice graph. :)

()

2nd round is almost certain, and almost certainly will be Hollande vs Aubry.


Otherwise, anyone who's registered to vote can vote in the primaries, as long as he signs a paper stating his attachment to "left-wing values". So, theoretically as many as 45 milion people can vote. ;) More realistically, turnout is expected to be between 1 and 4 milion, which would be a huge success in any case.

And I doubt the money could go to the PS campaign. Probably it will just pay for the costs of organization.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 09, 2011, 10:22:45 AM
I hope Hollande gets less than 45% of the vote and Aubry more than 35%, with Royal coming 3rd.

My prediction:

Hollande 43%
Auby 31%
Royal 10.5%
Montebourg 8%
Valls 6%
Baylet 1.5% (better than expected)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 11:43:52 AM
French people from Canada may have put Aubry ahead: is it a way for frightened aubrysts to try something ? or a stupidity from local apparatchiki, proud to give a "big" info to a journalist ? or a "small" journalist trying to have her hour of glory ?

Anyway, it's difficult to say how the turnout will influence things.
It seems that the final turnout will be abit above 5%.
Fine for the PS, but less than expected in the polls.

Some Hollande voters who thought they didn't need to vote ? Less leftists and far-leftists than expected ?
Or, as usual in national elections, people who postpone their vote until the very end (after all, people usually do exactly this in all their life: postponing and postponing again... :P) ?

I don't think it's the last explanation as I think people were very eager to vote, more than in national elections.

When did you vote Antontio ?
I'm so jealous ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 12:08:45 PM
DSK has voted for Martine Aubry. "VWithout any surprise" has he said.

Look at a photo of him: he's bearded now and his eyes are even more down... Less triumphant than some weeks ago, eh ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 12:25:03 PM
Oh, I didn't told you ? I can't vote, those stupid municipal services decided they won't register me until november (I'm 18 since march !!). When I realized that, the PS deadline was already over. You can imagine how pissed off I am.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 12:49:55 PM
Sorta livestream here http://partisocialiste.tumblr.com/

Not unbiased of course, but who cares ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 01:01:31 PM
Darmon talks about "big surprise". Montebourg apparently third. I don't see why that's surprising.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 09, 2011, 01:04:05 PM
The first results are here: http://resultats.lesprimairescitoyennes.fr/

Of course the PS still sucks and is not able to aggregate the results, so you must have a look at each departments...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 01:05:16 PM
Oh, I didn't told you ? I can't vote, those stupid municipal services decided they won't register me until november (I'm 18 since march !!). When I realized that, the PS deadline was already over. You can imagine how pissed off I am.

Oh... very sorry for you.

According to the 50 test-polling stations from Hololande's staff, Montebourg is 3rd.

Mon^tpellier-centre has put Aubry ahead of Hollande. Maybe just students and urban people and the influence of anti-frechist mayor, but, still, I have a bad feeling...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 01:08:10 PM
"Pointage sur les premiers 180 000 bulletins dépouillés : Hollande 39 % Aubry 31% Montebourg 18% Royal 7% Valls 5 % #PrimairePS"


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 01:09:05 PM
Oh, I didn't told you ? I can't vote, those stupid municipal services decided they won't register me until november (I'm 18 since march !!). When I realized that, the PS deadline was already over. You can imagine how pissed off I am.

Oh... very sorry for you.

According to the 50 test-polling stations from Hololande's staff, Montebourg is 3rd.

Mon^tpellier-centre has put Aubry ahead of Hollande. Maybe just students and urban people and the influence of anti-frechist mayor, but, still, I have a bad feeling...

When you have a bad feeling, that always gives me a good feeling. :)

I'm not dreaming, though. Let's wait and see.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 01:09:27 PM
Fabulous, the PS' results website has crashed.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 01:09:49 PM
"Pointage sur les premiers 180 000 bulletins dépouillés : Hollande 39 % Aubry 31% Montebourg 18% Royal 7% Valls 5 % #PrimairePS"

Where did you get this ? Math's link doesn't work.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 01:11:35 PM
"Pointage sur les premiers 180 000 bulletins dépouillés : Hollande 39 % Aubry 31% Montebourg 18% Royal 7% Valls 5 % #PrimairePS"

Where did you get this ? Math's link doesn't work.

Some tweeter feed on Le Nouvel Obs


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 01:14:42 PM
507 905 votes estimate:
Julio Iglesias 40%
Aubry 30%
Arnaud 17%
crazy lady 7%
Valls 5%
Baylet 1%


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 09, 2011, 01:17:25 PM
Everybody should switch on I-télé, Jean-François Copé is utterly hypocritical: "only 4 citizens on 100 voted today".


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 01:17:30 PM
40 30 17 7 5 1 on 507 905

OMG, it's really on the edge: I really hope she'll finish at 29 and Hollande at 41 :P
But I fear a 39-32....


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 01:17:45 PM
"résultats estimés" based on roughly 500,000 ballots :

Hollande : 40%
Aubry : 30%
Montebourg : 17%
Royal : 7% ROFL
Valls : 5%
Baylet : 1%

If we trust Fab, these are quite good numbers for Aubry. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 01:19:39 PM
Arnaud's ego is going to have a massive boost.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 01:19:52 PM
Everybody should switch on I-télé, Jean-François Copé is utterly hypocritical: "only 4 citizens on 100 voted today".

Tautology.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 09, 2011, 01:21:32 PM
Everybody should switch on I-télé, Jean-François Copé is utterly hypocritical: "only 4 citizens on 100 voted today".

Tautology.

Ok, I should have said "exceptionnally".

Nothing changed with 661,000 ballots in.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 01:23:45 PM
16/51 polls in Deux-Sevres

Hollande 46%
Royal 17%
Montebourg 17%
Aubry 16%

Nice job crazy lady!

97/200 polls in Saone-et-Loire

Montebourg 59%
Hollande 22%
Aubry 13%
Royal 3%


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 01:24:31 PM
Unfortunately, its 39.62 against 28.83 :(
Less than 10 and less than 40.

Comments and medias will be utterly important for the 2nd round....


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 01:25:24 PM
Unfortunately, its 39.62 against 28.83 :(
Less than 10 and less than 40.

Comments and medias will be utterly important for the 2nd round....

It's pretty pathetic how they can't even give results to one decimal...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 01:26:16 PM
Unfortunately, its 39.62 against 28.83 :(
Less than 10 and less than 40.

Comments and medias will be utterly important for the 2nd round....

It's pretty pathetic how they can't even give results to one decimal...

You don't know how much I agree with you.... !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 01:26:36 PM
Watching BFM, those idiots are saying these are good numbers for Hollande bla bla bla...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 01:27:49 PM
Does anybody know if the official results will count 'blancs et nuls' in the overall total?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 01:29:26 PM
Don't know.

Watch i-Télé, Antonio.

Don't know if the 661 561 are mostly rural or not... the PS site has crashed again.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 01:31:03 PM
39.36 against 30.02 apparently with 849,000 in.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 01:31:22 PM
Aubry leads 39%-31% in Paris


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 01:38:03 PM
39-30 with 1 milion. :D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 01:38:38 PM
On 907 031

39.48
29.89
17.29
7.09
5.18
0.67

OMG, the second round will finish with 50.01 for Aubry :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 01:40:12 PM
995 383

39.28
30.14

Argh....


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 01:41:49 PM
Nadine Moron is bitching again, and being a moron again.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 01:47:50 PM
1 132 275

39.28
30.28
17.19
6.96
5.27
0.64

Hope Guérini affair has definitely messed up relations between Aubry and Montebourg... :P
But, as I've said, appointing Montebourg her new campaign chief and it's done... :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 01:50:13 PM
This looks pretty good... If the numbers stay as they are, every hope is possible for the second round. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 01:50:41 PM
1 166 141

39.23
30.27
17.18
6.99
5.31
0.64


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 01:54:09 PM
I'm fed up with this country...

Should have voted today :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 01:55:54 PM
39.11 against 30.35 with 1,3 million. It's under 9% now ! :D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 01:57:24 PM
1 322 327

39.11
30.35

Already the "arguments" from Aubry's staff:
"awaiting for urban polling stations"
"less than 10 points"
"Montebourg for her"

Already heard somewhere ? :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 09, 2011, 01:58:25 PM
I'm fed up with this country...

Should have voted today :(

I don't think all the Montebourg supporters will vote for Aubry. Between 2/3 and 3/4 I would say. I still think Hollande is slightly the favourite, even more if Ségolene endorses him (which I have no clue about).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 09, 2011, 02:00:44 PM
I'm fed up with this country...

Should have voted today :(

I don't think all the Montebourg supporters will vote for Aubry. Between 2/3 and 3/4 I would say. I still think Hollande is slightly the favourite, even more if Ségolene endorses him (which I have no clue about).

Well, I realize this is not precisely the argument of the winner of the night :-).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 02:03:26 PM
I'm fed up with this country...

Should have voted today :(

I don't think all the Montebourg supporters will vote for Aubry. Between 2/3 and 3/4 I would say. I still think Hollande is slightly the favourite, even more if Ségolene endorses him (which I have no clue about).

I doubt she will. She has nothing to lose and still loathes him with a passion. She loathes Aubry too, so I guess she won't say anything. No idea how her voters will go, but I think a majority will follow Aubry (more left-wing image).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 02:04:57 PM
I don't think having Royal's endorsement is a great advantage... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 02:05:15 PM
39.05 against 30.35 with 1.47 million.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 02:06:37 PM
1 483 408

39.04
30.36
17.22
6.91
5.46
0.62


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 02:08:02 PM
Results website gone crazy... Now indicates 0 votes... ???


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 02:08:25 PM
PS website sucks balls, again.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 02:09:14 PM
Results website gone crazy... Now indicates 0 votes... ???

Aubry's plot ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 09, 2011, 02:09:46 PM
Results website gone crazy... Now indicates 0 votes... ???

FRAUD!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 02:10:20 PM
Back ! 38.98 / 30.4 with 1.5 mio. :D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 02:13:00 PM
1 533 156

38.99
30.38
17.24
6.91
5.48
0.62

Adieu, monde cruel...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 09, 2011, 02:14:45 PM
Is that Montebourg at 18%? If it is, good for him.

But still, if the PS nominate Aubry, they will confirm their status as a complete and utter joke. Defeat from the jaws of victory - again.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: hawkeye59 on October 09, 2011, 02:16:30 PM
I don't know much about French politics, so what's wrong with Aubry?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 02:16:43 PM
1 606 533
38.90
30.47
17.22
6.88
5.54
0.61

She'll end at 31 or even more, and he's even below 38.

My worst scenario is occurring...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 02:17:16 PM
Is that Montebourg at 18%? If it is, good for him.

But still, if the PS nominate Aubry, they will confirm their status as a complete and utter joke. Defeat from the jaws of victory - again.

Do you have a clue of what you are talking about ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 09, 2011, 02:18:53 PM
I don't know much about French politics, so what's wrong with Aubry?

She lives in a constant state of paranoid rigidity. That's the first thing.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 02:20:02 PM
I don't know much about French politics, so what's wrong with Aubry?

She lives in a constant state of paranoid rigidity. That's the first thing.

Well at least she's not a useless, do-nothing wimp with a vague personalist campaign.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on October 09, 2011, 02:21:23 PM
I don't know much about French politics, so what's wrong with Aubry?

She's an actual socialist.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 02:25:33 PM
Results excluding blank votes (so Fab, don't rejoice if Hollande is up ;)).

Hollande : 38.99
Aubry : 30.59

1,674,466 counted.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 09, 2011, 02:26:25 PM
I don't know much about French politics, so what's wrong with Aubry?

She lives in a constant state of paranoid rigidity. That's the first thing.

Well at least she's not a useless, do-nothing wimp with a vague personalist campaign.

Since I'm not a socialist at all, it sounds great to me :-).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 02:32:27 PM
38.94 / 30.64 with 17.3 mio.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 02:34:21 PM
1.73 M Antonio, don't be so proud ;D

I have 38.8 and 30.53


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 02:35:27 PM

Because you're counting invalid ballots. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 02:36:03 PM
And
17.24
6.85
5.6
0.61

It would be fun if Valls finishes above Royal, but changes are very tiny now.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 02:36:46 PM
Sh... They are really irritating not to be able to have "normal" numbers.
Thanks, BTW.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 02:39:23 PM
Baylet wins!








in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 02:40:27 PM
Trend is reversing now : Hollande gained back 4/100ths of points and Aubry lost half. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 02:45:40 PM
The PS website is really a pathetic joke, like the party itself.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 09, 2011, 02:49:56 PM
I hear the PS website broke down today with everyone trying to find their polling place. lol.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 02:52:02 PM
After shrinking at 8.3 the margin is now on the rise with 8.4. Don't know if it's a trend or just statistical noise, but it's hard to see Hollande getting over 40% with only around 500,000 votes to count.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 02:53:00 PM
btw, 6478/9474 polling places have reported.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 03:01:30 PM
If we were in the US, Montebourg would be the VP nominee tonight :P

Montebourg and Royal will say how to vote tomorrow and "soon", respectively.
Hard to say from what they said.
But if Hollande changes his positioning to please Montebourg, he'd be a Romney :P

Valls will vote Hollande, without surprise.

1 821 778

38.95
30.64
17.3
6.86
5.65
0.6


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 09, 2011, 03:03:33 PM

Not surprising, PRG is one of three parties on the island (with PS and UMP).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 09, 2011, 03:04:24 PM

Montebourg and Royal will say how to vote tomorrow and "soon", respectively.
Hard to say from what they said.


A journalist said on I-télé that Aubry and Montebourg didn't talk to each other since 6 months, so who knows what will happen...

Anyone knows why there is twice more invalid votes in the "consolidated results" columns than in the first one?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 03:12:06 PM
38.92 / 30.64 with 1.87 mio.

Look like it's not going to move significantly in any direction.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 09, 2011, 03:21:31 PM
If we were in the US, Montebourg would be the VP nominee tonight :P

Montebourg and Royal will say how to vote tomorrow and "soon", respectively.
Hard to say from what they said.
But if Hollande changes his positioning to please Montebourg, he'd be a Romney :P

Valls will vote Hollande, without surprise.

1 821 778

38.95
30.64
17.3
6.86
5.65
0.6


Whoever Sego backs will lead to some awkwardness either way. I'm thinking she'll go with Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 03:33:20 PM
Hollande and Aubry have just spoken. Both were good enough, with very different styles (Hollandes grandiloquent and vague, Aubry clear, solid, precise and focused on issues).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 03:44:08 PM
The total has remained at 1,902,230 for a while now...


Title: Thou shalt not vex thee Boardbashi
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 09, 2011, 03:52:24 PM
I love this...

http://www.france24.com/en/20111009-hollande-leads-french-socialist-presidential-primary-partial-results (http://www.france24.com/en/20111009-hollande-leads-french-socialist-presidential-primary-partial-results)



()



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 03:56:55 PM
With 1,915,344 in, Hollande at 38.88%, Aubry at 30.65%. 8.23 points lead.

Extapolating from number of polls (assuming they roughly have the same number of voters) the vote total should be 2,709,971. It's probably a bit lower.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 04:01:17 PM
I love this...

http://www.france24.com/en/20111009-hollande-leads-french-socialist-presidential-primary-partial-results (http://www.france24.com/en/20111009-hollande-leads-french-socialist-presidential-primary-partial-results)



()

I think what she was meaning is that it's a personalist concept which contrats with the French left's tradition of "ideas before people". And I actually agree with that. However, since we live in a presidentialist republic, having open primaries is still better than not having them.

Edit : Suck it Phil with your alternative titles. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 04:14:04 PM
Aubry is a liar: she has said she will put the age of retirement back to 60, after having said she has never said it in the past during the debates... ;D
Modern and responsible left, eh ?

Yes, I ahte her ;)

1916 376
38.87
30.63
17.35
6.84
5.69
0.61

Julien Dray seemed pretty optimistic on i-Télé: maybe Montebourg won't endorse anybody after all.
I fear Royal's endorsement (a bit more likely towards Hollande) will be counter-productive.
Anyway, it's useless: the 7% she got are her mad fans: they won't vote for the 2nd round.

Valls and Baylet will put Hollande at 45: the last 5 or 6 points will be really hard to grasp :(

My only point of optimism tonight: renewal of infightings in the PS after a second round with a 50.5-49.5 result (even with some fraud accusations, hopefully ;D)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 04:22:09 PM
Libération, Le Monde, Le Nouvel Observateur are surprisngly neutral: they just announce the ranks...

They wait for official instructions of their bosses, after a night of phone calls :P
And maybe they fear that the razor-thin second round will finish in another bloody internal fight ?

Rue89, Mediapart, Slate are more doubtful on Hollande and celebrate Montebourg....

And some say Le Figaro is predictible... ::) ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 04:26:02 PM
It's great to see you were right from the beginning, Fab. :) Now let's hope the media focus on "Hollande disappointing"... After, of course, higlighting the huge success of these primaries.

38.88 / 30.63, not moving. I don't know why it takes so much time to count the damn 500,000 ballots remaining...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 09, 2011, 04:29:58 PM
They're probably all going to bed now.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 09, 2011, 04:31:53 PM

Guess I'm gonna follow them. ;) I hope to wake up and see the medias' headlines on Hollande's failure.

Allez Martine ! :D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 04:53:09 PM
Local partial results, all with roughly 2/3 of polling stations (except... Deux-Sèvres with only a half of pollingstations reporting :P)

Ille-et-Vilaine
FH 38 MA 34 AM 17

Côtes d'Armor
FH 44 MA 30 AM 16

Finistère
FH 44 MA 32 AM 15

Morbihan
FH 44 MA 29 AM 16

This makes Bretagne loyal to its rocardian tradition, except this sh.... Green Rennes :P

Corrèze (Hollande's fief)
FH 86 AM 6 MA 4 ;D

Deux-Sèvres (Royal's FORMER stronghold ;))
FH 44 MA 18 SR 18 AM 17

Saône-et-Loire (Montebourg)
AM 59 FH 22 MA 14

Nord (Aubry's basis and a big federation inside the PS)
MA 55 FH 25 AM 10

Pas-de-Calais (neighbour of Nord and a big one too)
MA 42 FH 38 AM 10

Bouches-du-Rhône (no comment ;D)
FH 37 Ma 28 AM 20

Hérault (Montpellier and former frêchist fief)
FH 40 MA 25 AM 19

Haute-Garonne (Toulouse and abig PS federation)
FH 39 MA 29 AM 18

Tarn-et-Garonne (Baylet's department)
FH 37 MA 23 AM 18 JMB 10

Gironde (a big PS federation and Bordeaux)
FH 41 MA 28 AM 18

Seine-Maritime (Fabiusland and a big PS federation)
MA 38 FH 36 AM 15

Nièvre (Mitterrand's lands)
FH 40 MA 25 AM 24

Rhône (Lyon)
FH 35 MA 32 AM 20 and Valls above Royal

Loire-Atlantique (Nantes and Ayrault's basis)
FH 41 MA 32 AM 16

Isère (Grenoble and both Destot and Vallini's department)
FH 36 Ma 34 AM 19
Paris (Delanoë and bobos)
MA 38 FH 32 AM 16

Essonne (Valls's department but not fief)
FH 35 Ma 31 AM 16 MV 11

Val-de-Marne (big red suburbs)
FH 36 Ma 32 AM 17

Seine-Saint-Denis (another big red suburbs and Bartolone's stronghold)
FH 35 Ma 34 AM 17

Val-d'Oise (DSK's former base)
FH 37 Ma 32 AM 16

Yvelines (Versailles)
FH 37 Ma 31 AM 15 MV 9 (globally speaking, Valls is better in Ile-de-France and above Royal, BTW)

Seine-et-Marne
FH 38 MA 30 AM 17

Polls were good on this: the closer you are to Paris, the higher is Aubry.

Haute-Corse (;D)
FH 43 MA 23 JMB 14 (Go, Jean-Michel, go ! ;))

Corse-du-Sud
FH 52 MA 19 AM 13 JMB 1 (WTF???)



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 05:16:27 PM
Is everybody sleeping ?

I'm looking at the other results:
pretty homogeneous for Hollande around all the "province" (and for Montebourg).

Aubry has really gained ground in Paris, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Seine-Maritime and Seine-Saint-Denis: this is a PS apparatchik victory.

She is also competitive (though not winning) in Isère, Ille-et-Vilaine, Alsace (surprisingly): is that a Green effect ?

Her personal local influence stops at the borders of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. And Fabius's influence isn't sensible in Eure. Amazing.

I don't see any communist effect (central France is a sort of pompidolian map for Hollande ;D and Midi is more frêchist (hence hollandist) than communist and in Nord, we can't see what is communist vote and aubryst "favourite son" vote. In Ile-de-France, no big differences between the red suburbs and the bourgeois lands.

No real effect from the NPA-LO far left.

So, it's a bit better for Hollande to see this, as he is really prevailing all over France and has no weakness. Aubry is more Aubry+Delanoë+Fabius+Bartolone+Greens.
But, sure, she has not "holes" except in Massif Central and frêchist south.

What is more, it's more a socialist map than anything else, I think.
That's an advantage for Hollande.
Granted, I'm tryning to find something for him :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 05:46:12 PM
Speaking in the desert ;)

Well, there is another small phenomenon I barely dare to underline.

Montebourg is slightly better somewhere... it's in PACA, in Drôme, in Gard, in Loire, in Savoies.
Sure, he is also good in Haute-Loire and Hautes-Alpes.
And he may be strong in Ain and Rhône just because of regional influence from his stronghold.
And he is not really strong in great Parisian Basin and in Great Eastern countryside.

But, still....
Isn't it a souverainist effect or a FN effect ?
Is this direct vote from FN voters or just a "mani pulite" vote in the South East ?

I don't know but that's interesting.

Eager to see the complete results and... maps ;D

This pompidolo-chiraquian map for Hollande will be hilarious !!!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 09, 2011, 06:03:34 PM
I'm going to sleep...

It seems pretty stabilized but only 6802 out of 9474 polling stations are reporting and it's stalled for 3 hours :(

FH 38.9
MA 30.6
AM 17.4
SR 6.8
MV 5.7
JMB 0.6

My prediction was:
41 (+2)
31 (=)
14 (-3)
10 (+3)
3 (-2)
1 (=)

Clearly, I've put 3 points to Royal where they went to Montebourg and 2 points to Hollande that went to Valls.
Not a big failure, considering I'm pro-Hollande in this case :P

But the polls weren't so bad: remember the last Harris one ?
43
31
13
7
5
1
Very accurate, except on Hollande and Montebourg... Hence the disappointment and the "surprise" of the night.
What would Aubrysts and Montebourgians say without the polls ? They wouldn't have won... ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2011, 01:27:31 AM
Results for Vélizy-Villacoublay :

Hollande : 349 (39%)
Aubry : 276 (31%)
Montebourg : 132 (15%)
Valls : 78 (9%)
Royal : 49 (6%)
Baylet : 6 (1%)

Aubry should have got 277... :'(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 10, 2011, 01:50:19 AM
2 191 365
7688 polling stations reporting out of 9502

FH 39.22
MA 30.74
AM 16.8
SR 6.85
MV 5.73
JMB 0.66

Very slightly better for Hollande, but not enough to have 40.

What will we bet for Montebourg's decision ?
I think the most probable will be that he supports neither Aubry nor Hollande.
But if he calls to rally behind Aubry, Hollande is probably done.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: greenforest32 on October 10, 2011, 02:01:19 AM
So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2011, 02:06:14 AM
So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?

Yup.


Hollandists seem to be playing their last card : choose the candidate who can beat Sarkozy. I doubt it's a winning strategy though, it might seem arrogant. Also, Najat Belkacem on France Inter was pretty pathetic : we did a magnific campaign, everybody loved us but we lost because of evul pollz and tactical voting !!!1!!1!! But that's what you can expect from such a sectarian movement.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2011, 02:32:23 AM
BTW, the "consolidated" results are now higher than the "estimated" results. ROFL.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Iannis on October 10, 2011, 02:34:46 AM
So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?

Yup.


Hollandists seem to be playing their last card : choose the candidate who can beat Sarkozy. I doubt it's a winning strategy though, it might seem arrogant. Also, Najat Belkacem on France Inter was pretty pathetic : we did a magnific campaign, everybody loved us but we lost because of evul pollz and tactical voting !!!1!!1!! But that's what you can expect from such a sectarian movement.

so, good news for Nicolas with a Abry victory!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: ZuWo on October 10, 2011, 02:39:34 AM
Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2011, 02:46:32 AM
So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?

Yup.


Hollandists seem to be playing their last card : choose the candidate who can beat Sarkozy. I doubt it's a winning strategy though, it might seem arrogant. Also, Najat Belkacem on France Inter was pretty pathetic : we did a magnific campaign, everybody loved us but we lost because of evul pollz and tactical voting !!!1!!1!! But that's what you can expect from such a sectarian movement.

so, good news for Nicolas with a Abry victory!

Aubry is perfectly able to beat Sarkozy. She has a slighter lead in 1st round polls, but still defeat Sarko by around 10 points in the runoff. And what's more important, she's, IMO, the most able to face an agressive campaign, far more than a consensualist wimp like Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Iannis on October 10, 2011, 03:29:31 AM
So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?

Yup.


Hollandists seem to be playing their last card : choose the candidate who can beat Sarkozy. I doubt it's a winning strategy though, it might seem arrogant. Also, Najat Belkacem on France Inter was pretty pathetic : we did a magnific campaign, everybody loved us but we lost because of evul pollz and tactical voting !!!1!!1!! But that's what you can expect from such a sectarian movement.

so, good news for Nicolas with a Abry victory!

Aubry is perfectly able to beat Sarkozy. She has a slighter lead in 1st round polls, but still defeat Sarko by around 10 points in the runoff. And what's more important, she's, IMO, the most able to face an agressive campaign, far more than a consensualist wimp like Hollande.

Also Sarkozy is a campaign animal, actually


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2011, 03:34:48 AM
So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?

Yup.


Hollandists seem to be playing their last card : choose the candidate who can beat Sarkozy. I doubt it's a winning strategy though, it might seem arrogant. Also, Najat Belkacem on France Inter was pretty pathetic : we did a magnific campaign, everybody loved us but we lost because of evul pollz and tactical voting !!!1!!1!! But that's what you can expect from such a sectarian movement.

so, good news for Nicolas with a Abry victory!

Aubry is perfectly able to beat Sarkozy. She has a slighter lead in 1st round polls, but still defeat Sarko by around 10 points in the runoff. And what's more important, she's, IMO, the most able to face an agressive campaign, far more than a consensualist wimp like Hollande.

Also Sarkozy is a campaign animal, actually

Indeed, and my guts say he would be able to gain much more ground against Hollande than against Aubry.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 10, 2011, 03:37:05 AM
Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.

It seems that about 40% of the 2007 Socialist voters took part in the primary.

BTW, are there already any run-off polls ? And have the defeated candidates already made announcements if they will endorse Hollande or Aubry or none ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 10, 2011, 03:40:34 AM
So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?

Yup.


Hollandists seem to be playing their last card : choose the candidate who can beat Sarkozy. I doubt it's a winning strategy though, it might seem arrogant. Also, Najat Belkacem on France Inter was pretty pathetic : we did a magnific campaign, everybody loved us but we lost because of evul pollz and tactical voting !!!1!!1!! But that's what you can expect from such a sectarian movement.

so, good news for Nicolas with a Abry victory!

Aubry is perfectly able to beat Sarkozy. She has a slighter lead in 1st round polls, but still defeat Sarko by around 10 points in the runoff. And what's more important, she's, IMO, the most able to face an agressive campaign, far more than a consensualist wimp like Hollande.

Also Sarkozy is a campaign animal, actually

It's not really useful since he is by far the most unpopular incumbent President looking for reelection.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 10, 2011, 03:43:49 AM
Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.

It seems that about 40% of the 2007 Socialist voters took part in the primary.

BTW, are there already any run-off polls ? And have the defeated candidates already made announcements if they will endorse Hollande or Aubry or none ?

Also, does anyone have polls about the current support for parties for the upcoming parliamentary elections ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2011, 03:55:18 AM
Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.

It seems that about 40% of the 2007 Socialist voters took part in the primary.

BTW, are there already any run-off polls ? And have the defeated candidates already made announcements if they will endorse Hollande or Aubry or none ?

No poll so far, but I'm eager to see them ! :)

Valls endorsed Hollande last evening already. Montebourg and Royal said they'll announce soon their endorsements.


As for parliamentary elections, pollster only poll them only once the presidential election is over. Since presidential and parliamentary terms coincide, parliamentary elections have become totally useless and only a confirmation of the president's victory. That's discusting, but that's how things are.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 10, 2011, 03:58:35 AM
Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.

It seems that about 40% of the 2007 Socialist voters took part in the primary.

BTW, are there already any run-off polls ? And have the defeated candidates already made announcements if they will endorse Hollande or Aubry or none ?

No poll so far, but I'm eager to see them ! :)

Valls endorsed Hollande last evening already. Montebourg and Royal said they'll announce soon their endorsements.


As for parliamentary elections, pollster only poll them only once the presidential election is over. Since presidential and parliamentary terms coincide, parliamentary elections have become totally useless and only a confirmation of the president's victory. That's discusting, but that's how things are.

Wasn't Royal once married with Hollande ? I guess she will endorse him.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2011, 04:10:19 AM
Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.

It seems that about 40% of the 2007 Socialist voters took part in the primary.

BTW, are there already any run-off polls ? And have the defeated candidates already made announcements if they will endorse Hollande or Aubry or none ?

No poll so far, but I'm eager to see them ! :)

Valls endorsed Hollande last evening already. Montebourg and Royal said they'll announce soon their endorsements.


As for parliamentary elections, pollster only poll them only once the presidential election is over. Since presidential and parliamentary terms coincide, parliamentary elections have become totally useless and only a confirmation of the president's victory. That's discusting, but that's how things are.

Wasn't Royal once married with Hollande ? I guess she will endorse him.

Well, precisely, she loathes him for this reason.

That said, she isn't exactly fond of Aubry as well. ;)

Basically, she is in the same situation as a liberal democrat having to choose between Newt Gingrich and Michelle Bachmann.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2011, 04:33:30 AM
Election map ! :) Results are not absolutely definitive, but changes are very unlikely now.

()

Hollande-slide ! ;D Surprising to see such a uniform map when you remember the chaotic Reims one...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 10, 2011, 04:47:38 AM
Election map ! :) Results are not absolutely definitive, but changes are very unlikely now.

()

Hollande-slide ! ;D Surprising to see such a uniform map when you remember the chaotic Reims one...

Well, you can clearly see which districts the TOP-3 represent ... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 10, 2011, 06:46:34 AM
7874 polling stations reporting, out of 9502

2 249 578

FH 39.25
MA 30.7
AM 16.82
SR 6.87
MV 5.71
JMB 0.66


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 10, 2011, 09:07:43 AM
I hope Montebourg supports Aubry. She's the best candidate, and I agree with Antonio: to campaign against Sarko, she's the best.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 10, 2011, 09:54:45 AM
A surprise: overseas territories are, for the moment, hugely in favour of Hollande (Guadeloupe, Martinique, Réunion).
No number for Guyane, Mayotte, Nouvelle-Calédonie and Polynésie, but that's surprising. Royal is down here too and the "legitimist" vote would have favoured Aubry.

8157 out of 9502 polling stations:
2 320 028

FH 39.21
MA 30.55
AM 17.06
SR 6.85
MV 5.67
JMB 0.65

At least, if Aubry's result could fall to 30, that would be fine :P
I can't hope a 29.9 ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2011, 11:30:56 AM
The mediatic rhetoric are already set, Fab. They won't suddenly say "oh well, Aubry has fallen below 30 ! That's a total failure for her and a huge success for Hollande after all...". But I guess you know that. ;)

2.43 mio in : Hollande 39.1, Aubry 30.63.

Hollande's lead back to 8.47 after having fallen as low as 8.25. Meaningless, but still. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on October 10, 2011, 11:43:40 AM
I don't know much about French politics, so what's wrong with Aubry?

She lives in a constant state of paranoid rigidity. That's the first thing.

Well at least she's not a useless, do-nothing wimp with a vague personalist campaign.
And since when, exactly, can you do well in elections in France without being a do-nothing wimp with a vague personalist campaign?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2011, 12:09:09 PM
Montebourg said he won't tell his voters to vote for anybody, but will just say who he will vote for ("à titre personnel" ;)).

Poll says Hollande is the most likely to beat Sarkozy, Aubry the most likely to make substantial changes if elected. Not surprising, and not that bad.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2011, 12:18:33 PM
Map in a better version :

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2011, 01:19:34 PM
Montebourg didn't endorse anybody for now...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Nhoj on October 10, 2011, 01:28:13 PM
We are gonna need candidate strength maps obviously. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 10, 2011, 01:30:33 PM
We are gonna need candidate strength maps obviously. :P

I'll give you that as soon as all the votes are counted (or at least more than 95%, probably tomorrow).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 10, 2011, 01:58:02 PM
Baylet endorsed Hollande, from what I saw on a computer screen in the living room.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 10, 2011, 02:33:11 PM
Baylet endorsed Hollande, from what I saw on a computer screen in the living room.

http://www.leparisien.fr/flash-actualite-politique/primaire-ps-jean-michel-baylet-prg-appelle-a-soutenir-hollande-10-10-2011-1647697.php



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 10, 2011, 03:17:32 PM
Montebourg didn't endorse anybody for now...

I think he won't.
And I hope too ;).

8982 out of 9502, nearing the end.
2 549 894 (weird: there are only about 10k blank votes while there were 20k this morning.... ???)

FH 39.07
MA 30.52
AM 17.28
SR 6.84
MV 5.65
JMB 0.64


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 10, 2011, 04:16:35 PM
National results map is boring as hell, but apparently it's much more interesting when you look at the urban details:

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2011/10/10/carte-a-paris-martine-aubry-devance-francois-hollande_1585200_823448.html#ens_id=1402952

Hollande+Valls poll best in the right-wing affluent west-side, Aubry+Montebourg polls best in the left-wing poorer/bobo east-side and downtown. 18% for Manuel Valls in the 16th... and this is a left-wing primary!

Would be interesting to see if a similar pattern is repeated in Lyon or Marseille.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 11, 2011, 01:34:03 AM
Hollande won Sciences Po's arrondissement (the 7th) too. :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 11, 2011, 01:35:31 AM
Still more than 5% of polls not counted. This is getting pathetic.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 11, 2011, 02:53:00 AM
Aubry now barely over 30.5 ! :( Not that medias would care, but it'd still be a shame...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 11, 2011, 03:13:28 AM
Sciences Po's precinct :

Hollande : 334 (38.7%)
Aubry : 237 (27.5%)
Valls : 152 (17.6%)
Montebourg : 88 (10.2%)
Royal : 45 (5.2%)
Baylet : 7 (0.8%)


My Vélizy precinct :

Hollande : 175 (41.2%)
Aubry : 116 (27.3%)
Montebourg : 65 (15.3%)
Valls : 38 (8.9%)
Royal : 26 (6.1%)
Baylet : 5 (1.2%)


Brison-Saint-Innocent (73) precinct :

Hollande : 146 (38.2%)
Aubry : 100 (26.2%)
Montebourg : 81 (21.2%)
Valls : 29 (7.6%)
Royal : 25 (6.5%)
Baylet : 1 (0.3%)


All carried by Hollande with a higher margin that nationwide... :( But at least he's lower than nationally in 2 out of 3 ! And high Monteboug in Savoie means Aubry has a chance there for the runoff. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on October 11, 2011, 03:43:01 AM
I was really hoping Montebourg would have made it to the runoff. :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 11, 2011, 03:48:39 AM
I was really hoping Montebourg would have made it to the runoff. :(

Wut ? ???


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on October 11, 2011, 03:52:09 AM

I liked him. He spoke out against globalization and is a protectionist.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 11, 2011, 04:16:01 AM

I liked him. He spoke out against globalization and is a protectionist.

Yeah, there actually are some talks in France about far-right voters turning out to vote for him, because "de-globalization" stuff is quite popular among these guys. That said, Montebourg is above all a huge fan of government regulation, high taxes, strong welfare State, and everything an American conservative loathes with a passion. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 11, 2011, 04:20:38 AM
The closer you are to a city and to the centre of a city, the likelier you are to have voted Aubry.
It's quickly said but roughly right.

I really hope we'll really have the REALLY complete results, because I want to make accurate maps. Margins are so tiny... :P

BTW, I'll update my tracker here tonight
(it's already on my blog, which has a priority, sort of :P)
(I've also tried to estimate how votes are transferring from 1st to 2nd round... I like to take risks ;D)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 11, 2011, 04:25:35 AM
I really hope we'll really have the REALLY complete results, because I want to make accurate maps. Margins are so tiny... :P

I will do them. Don't you even try to beat me on that !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 11, 2011, 04:45:28 AM
I really hope we'll really have the REALLY complete results, because I want to make accurate maps. Margins are so tiny... :P

I will do them. Don't you even try to beat me on that !

Don't worry, I'm busy and lazy ;D
But I'll do some, probably next week, with my own categories: don't worry ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 11, 2011, 09:30:21 AM
National results map is boring as hell, but apparently it's much more interesting when you look at the urban details:

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2011/10/10/carte-a-paris-martine-aubry-devance-francois-hollande_1585200_823448.html#ens_id=1402952

Hollande+Valls poll best in the right-wing affluent west-side, Aubry+Montebourg polls best in the left-wing poorer/bobo east-side and downtown. 18% for Manuel Valls in the 16th... and this is a left-wing primary!

Would be interesting to see if a similar pattern is repeated in Lyon or Marseille.

In Rennes, Aubry is high in the old centre and in residential areas: "bobos" and young students. Hollande is high in popular areas.

Valls has good results in bourgeois or mid-bourgeois towns around Rennes: Saint-Grégoire, Cesson-Sévigné, Chantepie, Betton (but not Pacé).

Hollande is high in the same towns and also far away from Rennes in mid-size cities, for some more rightists: Saint-Malo, Dinard, Vitré but also Fougères.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 11, 2011, 09:43:43 AM
BREAKING !!!

Unfortunately, it's the worst pollster from first round which gives us the first poll for this week.
Let's hope Harris (yes, Harris...) will poll too. I don't even expect IFOP.

OpinionWay-Fiducial for Le Figaro, 10-11 October 2011, 2196 leftist RVs out of a whole sample of 5502

Among the 2196 sub-sample, you've got 1372 socialists and 638 "certain" to vote in the 2nd round.

Potential turnout is rising among socialists (36%, +8, good news for Hollande) and among far-leftists (30%, +7, good news for Aubry), but not among Greens (7%, -1, good news for Hollande).

Among leftists / among socialists / among leftists certain to vote (difference with a poll made on 5th and 6th of October, before the first round)
Hollande 54 (-4) / 58 (-1) / 52 (-8)
Aubry 46 (+4) / 42 (+1) / 48 (+8)

OpinionWay overvalued greatly Hollande before the first round.
Are they right now ? Or are they still overvaluing him ?
In any case, this result is of course very bad news for Hollande, even if he may be still ahead.

Valls voters: 65% to Hollande, 23% to Aubry, 12% undecided (normal)
Royal voters: 23% to Hollande, 64% to Aubry, 13% undecided (good news for Aubry)
Montebourg voters: 45% to Hollande, 48% to Aubry, 7% undecided (good news for Hollande)
new voters (didn't vote last Sunday): 39% to Hollande, 44% to Aubry, 17% undecided (good news for Aubry)

I'm surprised that it's so high for Aubry among Royal's voters (see my blog).
And Hollande is still high among Montebourg's voters.
Mmm.... let's be very careful.

Please, Mr. IFOP, please, Mrs. Harris, help us see more clearly :P !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on October 11, 2011, 10:39:33 AM
Only a 3 point advantage for Aubry with Montebourg voters? Seems unlikely.

Though perhaps those numbers may shift a lot when Montebourg announces his endorsement, uh, who he will vote for.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 11, 2011, 10:58:51 AM
Only a 3 point advantage for Aubry with Montebourg voters? Seems unlikely.

Though perhaps those numbers may shift a lot when Montebourg announces his endorsement, uh, who he will vote for.

He is weakening himself, by making too much noise: he's wasting his new strength very quickly...

Aubry and Hollande have just agreed on something: they don't want to abide by Montebourg's will...

Maybe his endorsement (if it comes, which I really doubt) will be only a "personal choice": like Chirac in 1981 "in favour" of Giscard. You know the end of this story ;).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 11, 2011, 12:54:48 PM
I don't know why, but my gut tells me that Aubry will narrowly win this thing.

Which means that I'll vote Sarkozy on May 5.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on October 11, 2011, 12:59:54 PM
I don't know why, but my gut tells me that Aubry will narrowly win this thing.

Which means that I'll vote Sarkozy on May 5.

HP.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on October 11, 2011, 01:00:59 PM
Yeah, someone go break his little legs on May 4th.

Or you just all go vote Hollande in the runoff.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 11, 2011, 02:15:45 PM
Medias were balanced yesterday and today, but tonight, I can see many articles in favour of Aubry... Sigh...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: HST1948 on October 11, 2011, 02:28:56 PM
I really hate to ask such a seemingly simple question, but I just started following this thread and really don't have an opinion of any of the candidates (Aubry, Hollande, or Sarkozy for that matter).  But is Sarkozy really in as much trouble as the polls seem to suggest, and if so who is the stronger candidate in your opinions to beat him (Aubry or Hollande)?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 11, 2011, 03:02:22 PM
I really hate to ask such a seemingly simple question, but I just started following this thread and really don't have an opinion of any of the candidates (Aubry, Hollande, or Sarkozy for that matter).  But is Sarkozy really in as much trouble as the polls seem to suggest, and if so who is the stronger candidate in you opinions to beat him (Aubry or Hollande)?

Yes, he is and Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: HST1948 on October 11, 2011, 03:09:47 PM
I really hate to ask such a seemingly simple question, but I just started following this thread and really don't have an opinion of any of the candidates (Aubry, Hollande, or Sarkozy for that matter).  But is Sarkozy really in as much trouble as the polls seem to suggest, and if so who is the stronger candidate in you opinions to beat him (Aubry or Hollande)?

Yes, he is and Hollande.

Thank you so much!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on October 11, 2011, 03:10:36 PM
That is: Hollande is polling better. I don't knwo whether that's quite the same thing.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 11, 2011, 03:29:44 PM
Final, ultimate and definitive results ! :)

Total voters : 2,661,284 (representing between 5 and 6% of voters).

Invalid votes : 11,025 (0.41%)

Valid votes : 2,650,259

Hollande : 1,038,207 (39.17%)
Aubry : 806,189 (30.42%)
Montebourg : 455,609 (17.19%)
Royal : 184,096 (6.95%)
Valls : 149,103 (5.63%)
Baylet : 17,055 (0.64%)

Hollande's lead ends up at 8.75, which is a tad bigger than it looked at the end of election. Won't change a lot, of course. Aubry under 30.5, crap. :P



Anyways, the OpinionWay poll seems like good news, but let's wait for the debate and for new polls before making assumption. For now, Fab and Hash's analyses make me hopeful, but it ain't done until it's done.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: HST1948 on October 11, 2011, 03:34:44 PM
That is: Hollande is polling better. I don't knwo whether that's quite the same thing.

Well, someone mentioned a couple pages previously that they thought Aubry's lead, although smaller, was "more stable" than Hollande's. I was just wondering if anyone else thought that this was the case and if so why that is?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on October 11, 2011, 03:39:49 PM
The idea is, I suppose, that people who already like Aubry are unlikely to change their mind because they suddenly discover she's a 'horrible socialist' or something like that. Whereas a substantial part of the people who like Hollande might change their mind, as his campaign is more personalist and less ideolgical, making it relatively easier for him to implode as his campaign runs out of steam.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 11, 2011, 04:05:20 PM
Final, ultimate and definitive results ! :)


Well, the national total is 9474 polling stations reporting out of 9474, but in many departments, you've got one or two polling stations missing :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 11, 2011, 04:15:38 PM
Final, ultimate and definitive results ! :)


Well, the national total is 9474 polling stations reporting out of 9474, but in many departments, you've got one or two polling stations missing :P

Damn website... >:(

If the margin on election night is below 0.5, they're gonna make me die !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 11, 2011, 04:17:55 PM
It's France. Most African nations are more efficient and competent in reporting their election results than France is.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 11, 2011, 04:41:31 PM
And Mayotte is at zero...
(Wallis and Futuna doesn't even appear, but it's likely there was no polling station there)

And "votants" are again taken for "suffrages exprimés" :P

Maître Mignard, I'm going to sue you ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 11, 2011, 04:44:55 PM
They had cancelled the vote in Mayotte because of the social tensions there.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 11, 2011, 04:48:22 PM
Oh, didn't know. Thanks, Hash.



OK, I find the same totals for candidates than the High Authority :P
But not the same national total for blank and invalid votes (BTW, they have 2 different numbers, on the results page and in their communique...).

Funny facts after having crushed numbers:
- Baylet has his best absolute result in Tarn-et-Garonne and this sole department makes 11% of his national total
- Baylet received more votes in Haute-Corse (861) than in Paris (850) ;D
- Saône-et-Loire is just behind Paris for the best absolute result for Montebourg
- Nord and Pas-de-Calais make 9% of the national total of Aubry; add Paris and Seine-Maritime and you have almost 20%


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 11, 2011, 07:06:48 PM
Just watching Hollande on tonight's TF1 20h. He seems rather insincere (trying too hard to be 'normal'), but maybe that's just me...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 12, 2011, 01:48:22 AM
Where do you get the Outre-mer results, Fab ? I can't find them on the primaries website...

Candidate-by candidate map coming soon. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 12, 2011, 01:56:29 AM
Really hard to say who wins this. It looked like Hollande would have the lead in the run-offs, but these run-offs are always very hard to predict. I think he still wins by about 56-44.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 12, 2011, 04:00:39 AM
Where do you get the Outre-mer results, Fab ? I can't find them on the primaries website...

Candidate-by candidate map coming soon. :)

Under the map, you've got a rolling menu and you can find overseas results (and French settled in foreign countries).

I've made my strength maps, but, don't worry, won't publish them here ;)
Well, apart from my first comments, no big news, unfortunately, except for Royal and Valls maps, really funny:
- Royal: a "traditional" South for a socialist candidate, but a completely incoherent North :P
- Valls: almost a FN map :P , if there wasn't a very urban trend in the West and Ile-de-France (and his weakness in the aubryst North)



Another interesting figure, that Hollande should put forward tonight: he is the only one to be above the 1-million votes threshold ! ;)
This is purely symbolic, but it could compensate for the fact he is just under 40%.
And in 2008, I remember that the number of millions for Obama and Clinton was a point... (though it was one more for Clinton, so I guess it's not a good precedent for Hollande !)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 12, 2011, 04:28:11 AM
Mathieu, if you read us, is there any poll in sight before Sunday ?

I'd be surprised if Harris doesn't make one. Le Parisien is always hungry to have a "breaking" poll ;).

IFOP ? Well, France-Soir hasn't money any longer :P, le JDD is published on Sunday and LCP may be reluctant.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 12, 2011, 04:56:36 AM
Mathieu, if you read us, is there any poll in sight before Sunday ?

I'd be surprised if Harris doesn't make one. Le Parisien is always hungry to have a "breaking" poll ;).

IFOP ? Well, France-Soir hasn't money any longer :P, le JDD is published on Sunday and LCP may be reluctant.

Don't worry, at last one Harris poll (for LCP !) will be released today. Basically the same results as Opinionway, you can find them here (http://www.francesoir.fr/actualite/politique/primaires-ps-avantage-hollande-avant-debat-146423.html) but the full data is still not on their website. Concerning IFOP I have no clue...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 12, 2011, 07:02:40 AM
***BREAKING NEWS***

Ségolène just endorsed Hollande (http://www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/primaire-ps-royal-soutient-hollande-12-10-2011-1650477.php), in order to "amplify his lead" ! So she hates Aubry more than Hollande, no doubt anymore.

Well, I see that as a good sign, regardless of what you guys will say :-).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 12, 2011, 07:29:24 AM
We were partly joking about this "bad" endorsement by Royal ;).

What is fine for Hollande is the timing: it gives some substance to the ability of Hollande to rally just before the debate. Psychologically, it's good.

Montebourg has overplayed his result, I think (now, some of his supporters speak about creating a "movement": my God, this will not be well received by socialists !)

Oh, I've just seen that Hollande has insisted this morning on having received "one million" votes ;D
No, I haven't said anything to Mosco, I promise ;)



Harris Interactive poll for LCP, 9-11 October 2011, sample 1220

Unfortunately, this is a bad poll from Harris: small sample, only by Internet, on 3 days including last Sunday, only preferences on who you want to win, not who you intend to vote to,...

Among leftists / among socialists (we don't know the size of the sub-samples)
Hollande 47 / 56
Aubry 41 / 40
none 12 / 4

excluding undecideds:
Hollande 53 / 58
Aubry 47 / 42

Among leftists having voted in the first round (OMG, on a whole sample of 1220, how many are they ?! :P):
Hollande 47
Aubry 44
none 9
It gives 51.5-48.5 on a 100 basis.

What makes this poll not completely bad is the internals:
as usual, Aubry wins among women, under 50 years old, Parisians, Green and FG voters. They are pretty balanced among CSP+. Hollande wins among old people, retirees, men, socialists.
Among CSP-, it's more surprising to see Aubry ahead, but this global CSP- category is far too large to understand what it means (and by CSP+, Harris may mean something weird, as Aubry is better among CSP++).

Certainly: 15 (+1 if we consider the last poll before the 1st round)
Probably: 11
probably not: 15
certainly not: 59
The difference is at +3 among the whole left, +7 among socialists (which may confirm one of my analyses, see my blog).

leftists certain to vote: 37
socialists: 47
Greens: 21 (overvalued)
MoDem: 8 (I guess it means one person :P)
far-left: 13
FG: 25

Of course, it's fine to see that Hollande doesn't seem to lose ground each day, but even Harris (which was the better pollster for the 1st round) also overvalued Hollande for the 1st round, even if less than OpinionWay or IPSOS or IFOP or CSA.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on October 12, 2011, 09:34:29 AM
***BREAKING NEWS***

Ségolène just endorsed Hollande (http://www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/primaire-ps-royal-soutient-hollande-12-10-2011-1650477.php), in order to "amplify his lead" ! So she hates Aubry more than Hollande, no doubt anymore.
Or she hates Hollande more than Aubry, and is cleverer than you think. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 12, 2011, 10:39:43 AM
***BREAKING NEWS***

Ségolène just endorsed Hollande (http://www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/primaire-ps-royal-soutient-hollande-12-10-2011-1650477.php), in order to "amplify his lead" ! So she hates Aubry more than Hollande, no doubt anymore.
Or she hates Hollande more than Aubry, and is cleverer than you think. :P
Occam's razor applies perfectly here, IMO.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 12, 2011, 01:49:15 PM
Debate is on: http://www.francetv.fr/2012/suivez-le-debat-aubryhollande-en-direct-sur-france-2-des-20h35-7279

Pujadas is such a pathetic idiot. Asking Aubry "do you hate Hollande?"... what's the point? You expect her to say "oh yeah, I hate his guts". French journalists are such wastes of sperm.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 12, 2011, 02:03:57 PM
Montebourg has overplayed his result, I think (now, some of his supporters speak about creating a "movement": my God, this will not be well received by socialists !)

Pulling a Palin. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 12, 2011, 03:15:27 PM
I don't know how legit this is, but Libe apparently has dropped an early bombshell: http://www.liberation.fr/politiques/01012365372-montebourg-a-fait-son-choix


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 12, 2011, 03:39:35 PM
Aubry was clearly stronger in the debate. I don't know if Fab will agree with me, but as he already foresaw some days ago, she was more able to attack Hollande and to express clearly her divergences. Holland didn't manage to answer with skill, so I have the feeling Aubry won it. I don't know, of course, if it's enough to make a difference in the end, but that looks reasonably encouraging.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 12, 2011, 04:45:53 PM
I admit I feel a bit sorry for Segogo:

Melle (79)
Hollande 43%
Royal 32%
Montebourg 13%
Aubry 11%

Haha.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 12, 2011, 05:00:15 PM
I admit I feel a bit sorry for Segogo:

Melle (79)
Hollande 43%
Royal 32%
Montebourg 13%
Aubry 11%

Haha.

The comparison between Royal's and Baylet's strongholds is indeed cruel for the first one...

Baylet 59%
Hollande 17%
Aubry 10%
Montebourg 7%
Royal 4%
Valls 2%


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 12, 2011, 05:15:32 PM
Aubry was clearly stronger in the debate. I don't know if Fab will agree with me, but as he already foresaw some days ago, she was more able to attack Hollande and to express clearly her divergences. Holland didn't manage to answer with skill, so I have the feeling Aubry won it. I don't know, of course, if it's enough to make a difference in the end, but that looks reasonably encouraging.

Well..... I don't agree with you ;D :P

Let me explain, before damning me ! ;)

She is better on the details, on questions: she is better when she speaks with acronyms, names of socialist leaders in Europe, on measures for employment or else. But she doesn't try to convince Sciences-Po or ENA students !!!! ("les exos de charges" was a pathetic moment... "mon père" too...)

She missed something. She was on the attack and was good on pupils who double a class (because his money saving on this isn't one) and on the proposals that Hollande has taken or not from Royal. But, otherwise, she was repeating herself far too much: she was here only to attack Hollande, but she didn't explain her ideas very well and very precisely.

For once, Hollande managed to explain himself more in details. And he was more solid against her attacks, in the 15 first minutes, really.
She wasn't smiling at all and was in a very tense mood.

I really think (see my blog again) that Royal's announcement was a psychological advantage for him just before the debate: "my ex-wife supports me and doesn't put the mess, great!"

Hollande was able to answer on attacks AND to add something more: more "green", surprisingly, than her; more on the "newness", more on the rallying of all the left.
He was more like Sarkozy in 2007 and Aubry more like Royal, too much aggressive.

And I think many leftist voters first want to be united
1) not to have another 21 April,
2) to beat the "dictator" Sarkozy.

TBH, I think Hollande is a Mitterrand with his body and a Raffarin with his words (amazing), while Aubry has the words of a teacher in Sciences-Po and gestures from a seller...
But I also think he has regained a small momentum with Royal and the debate of tonight which is, at worst for him, a draw.

And I've seen the faces of Assouline, Huchon, Hazan, Hidalgo tonight at Aubry's HQ: well, it seemed as though it was already game over... Hidalgo was almost crying...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 13, 2011, 01:56:25 AM
Comments from medias are mostly describing a draw.
Only Rue89 gives a slight advantage for Aubry among leftist medias.

It will be difficult for Montebourg not to say the same thing and so, not to be very careful even if he picks someone (which I still doubt, except if it's to choose Hollande, for tactical reasons, being the latter's left arm).

Without any momentum now prevailing, Hollande remains slightly ahead.
And Aubry can't even use the old trick of the anti-establishment positioning, considering what she said yesterday, when she was the perfect ENA student (herself spoke of a "grand oral" before the debate...).

This morning, she keeps saying he wasn't clear (while he was far more clearer than the first 3 debates, during which he said absolutely nothing) and uses a phrase of her grandmother... It reminds me of the radio interventions of Royal the last Friday before the 2007 second round: done, but keeping repeating the tricks defined just after the first round.

She hasn't grasped her momentum: she should have kept attacking Hollande but should have put herself on a more presidential level.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 13, 2011, 02:03:25 AM
Well, if you say so. I admit I always have difficulties to imagine the random redneck voter's reactions, but I personally felt Aubry talked about precise issues, numbers, reality, while Hollande still remained on vague catchphrases. But as you said, things a Sciences Po student want to hear aren't the same as what the average voter wants to hear.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 13, 2011, 02:29:45 AM
Well, if you say so. I admit I always have difficulties to imagine the random redneck voter's reactions, but I personally felt Aubry talked about precise issues, numbers, reality, while Hollande still remained on vague catchphrases. But as you said, things a Sciences Po student want to hear aren't the same as what the average voter wants to hear.

Oh he wasn't clear. Just clearer than usual ;)
But I think it's enough.

There is also another thing I've become aware of, yesterday: he was pedagogic. It's probably more important for many people than being precise on your own policies: we, from the "elite of knowledge" (:P), know that she was right on education or on social treatment of unemployment or on some other things.

I've heard the reaction of some other persons and they say he was actually clear. By that, they don't mean on policies, but on explaining the situation.
After all, since 2008, Sarkozy hasn't explained anything on the crisis.... Yesterday, Hollande was very clear on Greece, financing the economy, banks' governance, etc.

In a way and to be more precise, with Aubry, we were in a conférence de méthode, with Hollande, we were in a cours magistral en amphi ;D

Of course, I may be wrong and, after all, people voting in the primary aren't exactly the average French people. But still.

I'll calculate something, for fun, and I think I'll finish with something like 51.5/48.5.
Let's wait for Montebourg's Big Commandment and maybe it'll be only 51/49.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 13, 2011, 02:41:41 AM
In a way and to be more precise, with Aubry, we were in a conférence de méthode, with Hollande, we were in a cours magistral en amphi ;D

Ouch, that hurts. :P I've heard Olivier Duhamel and Bertrand Badie. Hollande is not them.

And anyways, I don't see how exactly he was more pedagogical in his explanations. Yes, I know, he uses simpler words, stuck to generalities and gave us a picture. But overall he just repeated what Aubry had just said, and less well than her.

Also, I had the feeling Aubry didn't attack too much, but she attacked on the right topics (cumul, flip-flopping...). These topics are, AFAIK, important enough for socialists to play some role.

I doubt Montebourg will endorse everybody now, that could only make him lose credibility.

Now, I know Hollande is still the favorite and won't rip my hair if he wins. Your 51/49 prediction is probably about right, but the margin of uncertainty is very high, so both outcomes are fairly possible.


And BTW, will you eventually give us the tracker of the week ?!?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on October 13, 2011, 03:44:27 AM
***BREAKING NEWS***

Ségolène just endorsed Hollande (http://www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/primaire-ps-royal-soutient-hollande-12-10-2011-1650477.php), in order to "amplify his lead" ! So she hates Aubry more than Hollande, no doubt anymore.

Well, I see that as a good sign, regardless of what you guys will say :-).

Isn't Hollande Royal's partner btw?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 13, 2011, 03:52:11 AM
***BREAKING NEWS***

Ségolène just endorsed Hollande (http://www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/primaire-ps-royal-soutient-hollande-12-10-2011-1650477.php), in order to "amplify his lead" ! So she hates Aubry more than Hollande, no doubt anymore.

Well, I see that as a good sign, regardless of what you guys will say :-).

Isn't Hollande Royal's partner btw?

Was.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on October 13, 2011, 04:02:30 AM
***BREAKING NEWS***

Ségolène just endorsed Hollande (http://www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/primaire-ps-royal-soutient-hollande-12-10-2011-1650477.php), in order to "amplify his lead" ! So she hates Aubry more than Hollande, no doubt anymore.

Well, I see that as a good sign, regardless of what you guys will say :-).

Isn't Hollande Royal's partner btw?

Was.

That must be a somewhat awkward endorsement then...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 13, 2011, 04:05:32 AM
***BREAKING NEWS***

Ségolène just endorsed Hollande (http://www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/primaire-ps-royal-soutient-hollande-12-10-2011-1650477.php), in order to "amplify his lead" ! So she hates Aubry more than Hollande, no doubt anymore.

Well, I see that as a good sign, regardless of what you guys will say :-).

Isn't Hollande Royal's partner btw?

Was.

That must be a somewhat awkward endorsement then...

Well, yeah, to say least. Basically, Royal probably had to choose between the two people she hates most. I'm actually surprised she eventually took a stance, I thought she wouldn't have ever supported Hollande or Aubry.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on October 13, 2011, 10:23:54 AM
Say, Antonio, fab, I gather that both of you have a certain degree of experience with Sciences Po, how tough is it to get in there. Is it as hard as getting in on the action in the ENS of the Rue d'Ulm, or is it more doable? What sort of tests do you have to get trough before they admit you? I'm fascinated by those Grandes Ecoles of yours, mainly because I think the concept is very laudable.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 13, 2011, 10:49:19 AM
OpinionWay poll for LCI and Le Figaro, 12-13 October 2011, sample 4912

1990 leftists (among them 1254 socialists; 501 who have voted last Sunday; 599 who have watched the debate; 102 who didn't vote last Sunday but want to vote next Sunday)

The most convincing during the debate:
among leftists / socialists / those certain to vote next Sunday:
Hollande 37 / 43 / 38
Aubry 40 / 38 / 44
none 22 / 18 / 18
undecided 1 / 1 / 0

among Greens / far-leftists (beware ! tiny sub-samples)
Hollande 23 / 15
Aubry 43 / 46
none 32 / 39
undecided 2 / 0

Basically, it's a draw and it has reinforced previous lines (see the result among socialists, Greens and far-leftists), but Aubry seems to have gained a small advantage during the debate.

certainty to vote:
leftists 31 (+1 from previous poll of 9-10 October)
socialists 38 (+2)
Greens 10 (+3)
far-leftists 31 (+1)

It's very difficult to say something here: the sample itself contains 102 potential new voters but the certainty to vote is only slightly up....
It seems as if there will be new voters, but not much.

among leftists / socialists / those certain to vote / those who have watched the debate:
Hollande 53 (-1) / 56 (-2) / 52 (=) / 54
Aubry 47 / 44 / 48 / 46

Well, Hollande was slightly less convincing but he has a very good result among those who have watched the debate ?!?
This is a bit confusing...

I've bolded the important numbers: still ahead but not by far.
Hollande hasn't reversed the trend but we can't say he is really dangerously down.

At least, we'll have some suspense ;)

Montebour voters: 37 to Hollande (-8) / 51 to Aubry (+3) / 12 undecided  (+5)
Royal voters: 31 (+8) / 64 (+1) / 4 (-9)
Valls voters: 65 (=) / 34 (+11) / 1 (-11)
potential new voters: 49 (+10) / 51 (+7) / 0 (-17) or is it that the pollster have erased undecideds ? (in this case, that would be 49 (+2) / 51 (-2))

Here, I must say that we must be very careful, not on absolute numbers, which are roughly the same (not so bad for Hollande among Montebourg voters, not so bad for Aubry among Royal and Valls voters), but about the differences since Monday:
we'd be pleased to say that we see the result of Royal's endorsement and of Montebourg's relative closeness to Aubry, but it seems too beautiful to believe.
Again, it's slightly better for Aubry here, if you consider that the Montebourg voters are the biggest troup.

Anyway, it will feed my prognosis of tomorrow evening ;D (or of Saturday :P)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 13, 2011, 11:05:46 AM
Say, Antonio, fab, I gather that both of you have a certain degree of experience with Sciences Po, how tough is it to get in there. Is it as hard as getting in on the action in the ENS of the Rue d'Ulm, or is it more doable? What sort of tests do you have to get trough before they admit you? I'm fascinated by those Grandes Ecoles of yours, mainly because I think the concept is very laudable.

You're considering to try Sciences Po ? Well, I can only encourage you to go on ! :)

From what I gather, there is a particular admission procedure for strangers in Sciences Po, which I don't know at all. I can only talk about the standard procedure, which shouldn't be particularly different (I've heard somewhere that it is easier, but I can't say it's true). Anyways, French students have to participate to a concours composed of 4 discipline : "culture générale" (which is mostly philosophical but in a large sense of the term and generally focused on topic in tie with human sciences), history (limited to the 20th century, roughly corresponding to the Terminale program), an optional teaching (either math, literature or social sciences : therefore mostly depending from your section : respectively S, L and ES), and a foreign language (limited to a dozen of languages like English, Italian, Spanish...). The four grades you get are averaged into one, but failing the foreign language one authomatically eliminates you. Basically, if your average is over 12, you are admitted. If it's between 10 and 12 (roughly) you have to take an oral interview (I didn't have it, but according to what I've heard they mostly ask you about your motivations and so on). There is also another way to get admitted : that is getting a "mention bien" at your baccalauréat (the final exam of secondary education), ie over 16. Similarly to the concours, between roughly 16 and 18 you have to have an interview, and over 18 you are directly admitted. The trick is that, the concours is already in late june, that is before you know your bac grades : that means you have to take both the bac and the concours whatever your mention will be. :P Personally, that's what happened to me, as I got 18.3 for the bac. ;)

I don't really have elements of comparison between other schools, but personally I think the Sciences Po exam is reasonably doable. Of course, there is a big selection as the "success rate" is apparently around 10% - this number scared me a lot when I was told, but in fact it doesn't mean so much. Honesyly, I haven't got the feeling that you need to be an excellent student to pass it, just to know the key elements that you also need for a good bac. I've never considered myself as an excellent student, even less as a "bête à concours", and, honestly, when I attended the exam I expected to fail it. I basically got 11 in culture gé and history, 13 in social sci and 15 in English (I need to thank the forum for that :)). I think that, if you are generally interested in the topics, that you work regularly and have a decent memory, you should be able to pass it.


If you're interested in my "liveblogging" of the whole bac-concours period, here is it. :) https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=119285.0


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on October 13, 2011, 11:13:20 AM
Quote
You're considering to try Sciences Po ? Well, I can only encourage you to go on !


Oh no, I'm not, I'm perfectly content where I'm right now. I just find the whole idea quite fascinating. French higher education is very different from our own, more German model (even if the numerus clausus is almost entirely extinct here), and I like to have an idea of what other systems look like.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 13, 2011, 02:27:18 PM
And Aubry can't even use the old trick of the anti-establishment positioning, considering what she said yesterday, when she was the perfect ENA student (herself spoke of a "grand oral" before the debate...).


And here we are... She has just said that "the system has created his candidate" (Hollande), "because he is easier to beat for Sarkozy"....

So speaks Delors' daughter, supported (today in small articles) by Libération and Le Monde....

Maybe Hollande has taken a part in create the fake destruction of Pentagon in 2001 :P ::)
Does she want to do the same stupidities than Royal in 2007, just to win ?
Or maybe she can seek Schivardi's endorsement ?! Come on... is she ready to say anything ?

Yesterday, she said she is a friend of Hollande. Well, may God prevent us to have such a friend.
Sorry, Antonio, to say that like this, but she has croossed some moral borders.
I should rejoice of this huge animosity in the last days, because it will create infightings in the coming months between socialists, but I prefer to have a decent competitor against the right.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 13, 2011, 02:45:27 PM
Yeah, that's something extremely stupid to say and which I wouldn't have expected from her. That's disappointing, but it would be ridiculous to say this inanity means her entire campaign is based on demagogy and lies. Until now, I have seen a candidate who has kept on a demagogic, vague, Chirac-like campaign based only on personality and has been unable to develop a consistent discourse on issues. And I've seen a candidate which, throughout the campaign, has tried to genuinely expose her program, without constantly trying to please people and media. You seem to think Aubry is one of the pettiest and less honest politicians in France, but one sentence isn't enough to support such a belief.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 13, 2011, 02:50:50 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #23 - 10 October 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until October at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

10 October Aubry sub-tracker:

Arthaud   1,07
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   6,94
Chevènement   0,14
Aubry   26,77
Joly   5,84
Bayrou   6,86
Borloo   7,14
Villepin   3,92
Nihous   0,14
Boutin   0,31
Sarkozy   23,25
Dupont-Aignan   0,50
Le Pen   16,79




10 October Hollande sub-tracker:   
   
Arthaud   0,87
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   6,51
Chevènement   0,07
Hollande   30,39
Joly   5,66
Bayrou   6,57
Borloo   6,35
Villepin   3,34
Nihous   0,07
Boutin   0,42
Sarkozy   22,66
Dupont-Aignan   0,46
Le Pen   16,31




10 October generic PS candidate sub-tracker:   
   
Arthaud   0,95
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   6,68
Chevènement   0,10
PS   28,94
Joly   5,73
Bayrou   6,68
Borloo   6,66
Villepin   3,57
Nihous   0,10
Boutin   0,37
Sarkozy   22,89
Dupont-Aignan   0,48
Le Pen   16,50


No new poll this week, so Sarkozy is just keeping heading down and Mélenchon heading up.
With the primary, I doubt there will be any poll on the presidential election until next Monday :(.

(Sorry for the delay for this tracker but this week was quite bad for me (no, not especially because of Aubry :P -though...- but because of one of my boys at school, the future of my job, my workload and my health).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 13, 2011, 03:00:33 PM
Yeah, that's something extremely stupid to say and which I wouldn't have expected from her. That's disappointing, but it would be ridiculous to say this inanity means her entire campaign is based on demagogy and lies. Until now, I have seen a candidate who has kept on a demagogic, vague, Chirac-like campaign based only on personality and has been unable to develop a consistent discourse on issues. And I've seen a candidate which, throughout the campaign, has tried to genuinely expose her program, without constantly trying to please people and media. You seem to think Aubry is one of the pettiest and less honest politicians in France, but one sentence isn't enough to support such a belief.

The problem is that each day (or even each hour now), she has added something: too smooth, not coherent, flip-flopping, lies and, today, this morning "rightist words" in Hollande's mouth and tonight, "the candidate of the system": crescendo !! all of this is planned.
Tommorrow, maybe he'll be a social-traitor or the friend of Jouyet, Sarkozy's minister...

And the former trotskyites Cambadélis, Assouline, Borgel may be behind this but I don't think so: she clearly is managing the campaign herself. Fabius, Delanoë, even Hamon are far more careful in what they say...

The UMP, currently so down, may have found something, eventually...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 13, 2011, 03:11:36 PM
I see than Aubry launched the "machine à perdre".

Which helps the right and is a very bad idea from her.
Does she want Hollande to lose, so she can run against Sarkozy in 2017?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on October 13, 2011, 03:25:23 PM
I see than Aubry launched the "machine à perdre".

Which helps the right and is a very bad idea from her.
Does she want Hollande to lose, so she can run against Sarkozy in 2017?

This is one quote people. If she starts a bitchfest this monday, I'll be more than ready to condemn her along with some of you, but right now, she's still only a Margin of Error away from being the PS candidate for the presidency and not playing it very dirty, as far as I can tell.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 13, 2011, 05:32:22 PM
Believe me, the words she has pronounced for 2 weeks, but notably today, will stick in the memories of all the Hollande supporters inside the PS apparatus.
Especially if she wins.

If she wins, of course, she'll be able to keep all her very diverse team (former leftist strauss-kahnians, some leftist rocardians, the "strong" left of Hamon-Emmanuelli-Lienemann-Quilès, the traditional aubrysts, Delanoµë's supporters, former and remaining fabiusians, etc.) but she'll have a bitter internal opposition from Hollande, Moscovici, Peillon, Valls, Royal, Ayrault, Rebsamen, Sapin, etc.

If she loses, Fabius, Delanoë and Hamon have been careful enough not to appear as attack dogs and will drop her...
But, in this case, I'm not sure it will be easy for her to take back the premiership inside the PS: don't forget Harlem Désir is only here ad interim.... This is another battle in sight: she won't want to quit, but Désir is well viewed by many of Hollande's supporters and by many of Delanoë's and Fabius' supporters, so she will endure big pressures to retire.

This is double or quits and she's now taking a big risk for the PS, in a selfish way.
Just saying.



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 14, 2011, 03:22:15 AM
BREAKING !

Montebourg's "personal vote" will be for Hollande, though he don't want to amke any appeal to his voters.

Well, even if it smells like Chirac for VGE in 1981, it's really good news for Hollande.
He has received a support from all the other candidates and Aubry is still on attack mode...
Montebourg would vote for the "candidate of the system" ?
Her final line of attack is dead.

Logically, it should be enough to prevent Aubry's momentum to reach the 50% threshold.
Though we should remain careful.



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 14, 2011, 03:27:33 AM
Yeah, look a bit bad for Aubry.

I'll probably stick with my prediction of a 56-44 win for Hollande. But anything between 53-60% should be possible for him.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 14, 2011, 03:53:06 AM
Yeah, look a bit bad for Aubry.

I'll probably stick with my prediction of a 56-44 win for Hollande. But anything between 53-60% should be possible for him.

It will be narrower than that.
Probably not more than 52-48.
(I'll do some maths this evening, before being more precise than that... and so fail even more on Sunday ;D)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on October 14, 2011, 03:59:58 AM
I'm guessing at 54-46, maybe 53-47.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 14, 2011, 05:40:28 AM
Yeah, it's getting bad for Aubry... She's given her explanation on France Inter this morning (an attack against polls, not against Hollande) but of course that won't convince anybody. It was a major gaffe and she know it, all the more that the medias seem to give a lot of coverage to this sentence. I think the hopes for her to prevail are somewhat decreasing, but things remain uncertain enough. Right now, a Hollande 52% victory as Fab said seems the most likely scenario...

Anyways, whether it's Hollande or Aubry, the only thing that really matters is kicking Sarko's ass in 2012. :) And I trus both candidates and their supportes to gather after Sunday with this aim. I mean, socialist know how to be terribly stupid sometimes, but there are limits. :P


Anyways, here is the promised candidate strength map ! :) Sorry for the small resolution, but you can click on the pic to view it in real size.

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/3451_14_10_11_4_42_30.png)

As you can see, what is striking is really the map's uniformity : Hollande always either in the 30s or 40s, Aubry between the 20s and 30s, Montebourg mostly in the 10s (considering he got 17%, we could have expected him to break 20% in a lot more departements), and all the others almost never breaking 10% (Valls is especially striking : he barely got 11% in his native Essonne !). This is a huge difference, not only with America's polarized politics, but also with the interal PS maps (like the Reims ones) which are usually quite messy.

Fabien, if you have done your own map, could you show us them ? I'm curious to see which of ours are better (certainly yours ;)).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 14, 2011, 05:59:27 AM
Very nice maps!

If I can suggest something to Fab (only if his maps are not already done, of course), it would be to choose a discretization by quintiles or quartiles, in order to see better where are the strongholds of the little candidates (Royal, Valls).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 14, 2011, 06:28:02 AM
Yeah, I also considered to use increments of 5 points for minor candidates. I definitely should have, but didn't imagine vote shares would be that uniform...

Another interesting thing is to notice how Hollande weakness doesn't necessarily corresponds to Aubry strength and reciprocally : there are a lot of departements where Hollande is in the 40s and Aubry in the 30s, as well as places where Hollande is in the 30s and Aubry in the 20s. That's quite weird.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 14, 2011, 06:45:22 AM
Very nice maps!

If I can suggest something to Fab (only if his maps are not already done, of course), it would be to choose a discretization by quintiles or quartiles, in order to see better where are the strongholds of the little candidates (Royal, Valls).

These are the only maps I love ;) (but we of course need the 2 types of maps: one without the other isn't enough !). I've done some with 6 groups of 16 departments (so, sextiles ?).
But they are a bit dirty :P
And I'm busy right now: please wait a bit ;).



As for Aubry, her attacks aren't gaffes: it's a clear strategy of escalation.

And she is taking a big risk: that's what Chirac and Séguin made in 1994-95 against Balladur. Of course, they won, but, until 2007 or even until now, this is the dividing line inside the right.
Sure, we can't compare entirely the situations and the risk is here a bit lower. But...

Montebourg's decision seems to be highly minimized on Rue89, Mediapart and Libération (and they talk a lot about education, retirement and all the "lies" of Hollande...).
Le Monde is more neutral, just because they are so glad to have the interview, while being probably more aubryst...
Only Le Nouvel Observateur is more pro-Hollande and gives more room to Montebourg's decision.

Those who are already convinced among Montebourg voters will say that he is a traitor... and they'll vote Aubry... and Mélenchon in April 2012 :P

I don't think Montebourg's decision will change much to the real vote, but it weakens deeply this last critic of Aubry on the establishement, the system, as Montebourg can't be said to be part of it. And it gives some reality to the "rally" around Hollande: well, nobody has endorsed Aubry... remember Hillary in 2008 ?

Still, Aubry will strike this chord of "angriness", "anti establishment", "we don't want to do what they are talking us to do", etc.
And this is a strong theme in France.

So, the only advantage for Hollande is that, mediatically, Montebourg counter-balances personal attacks by Aubry. But it's just the advantage of making the field even again.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 14, 2011, 11:41:08 AM
If it's a strategy, it's a losing one for both her and the left. And I can't believe someone who has done so much for her party in order to win 2012, who wasn't even going to run weren't for DSK, now has become power-hungry to the point of willingfully adopting a strategy which is objectively bad for the PS. Until now, there is some aggressivity on Aubry's side, but that doesn't necessarily means it's a strategy. We'll see, but I feel the medias are making somethin big of very little actual stuff.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 14, 2011, 12:58:41 PM
Hollande 51.5 / 48.5 Aubry ;D

Yeah, this is what I think:
1/3 - 2/3 among Montebourg voters, with 20% of them abstaining
1/3 - 2/3 among Royal voters, with 30% of them abstaining
2/3 - 1/3 among Valls and Baylet voters
2/5 - 3/5 among new voters, these being 7% of the previous total
hence a 51.58 / 48.42 result, though spontaneously, I'd have said 50.8 / 49.2

We'll see, guys.

And I'm too lazy to publish here the latest (and last) Harris poll, again 53/47 (see my blog).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 14, 2011, 01:10:54 PM
I'd rather say 2/5-3/5 for Royal voters and 3/4-1/4 among Valls and Baylet voters, but you get the main line. Hollande will likely win. Aubry's efforts to reverse the momentum have been relatively successful, but not as much as Fab expected (retrospectively, you gave me false hopes and I shouldn't have trusted you as much :() and not enough to take over Hollande. Well, that's a pity. An upset is still possible, of course (after all, I went to bed on november 21, 2008 with the dire perspective of having Royal as First Secretary :P ;D).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 15, 2011, 08:24:55 AM
Let's see if it works:

Baylet:
()

Valls:
()

Royal:
()

Montebourg:
()

Aubry:
()

Hollande:
()

EDIT: Hollande map modified (there was indeed a problem with Cantal, Aisne and Loir-et-Cher: thank you, Antonio ;))

Remember it's only the relative strength of the candidates: each map has 6 groups of 16 departments.
Of course, this method can't be used alone, especially here, when Hollande is high everywhere and Aubry in many departments, with very homogeneous results, notably for Montebourg.
And the method is worse and worse when you have smaller and smaller overall results.

Still, many trends appear clearly: regional strongholds, old radical bastions, the south-east for Montebourg, the "real" Brittany for Hollande, etc.
It's always troubling to have hierarchies even in the tenths of points :P

More comments later, but do not hesitate to "find" something in each of these maps, guys ! :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 15, 2011, 10:19:19 AM
Very interesting maps, thank you Fab ! :) They are probably less pretty aesthetically speaking, but far more useful to analyze geogrpahically.

Let's see... The Baylet map doesn't seem to mean anything outside of the obvious strength in Midi. Here the sextile stuff doesn't work very well, considering 90% of departements gave him between 0 and 2%. :P Valls definitely looks like a bobo vote, with IdF, Alsace and Rhône-Alpes as main strongholds. The Royal map doesn't seem to mean much except than the South hates her a bit less than the rest of the country. :P Montebourg stregth is pretty strikingly concentrated in the Southeast (I'm extremely surprised to see he's actually lower that average in the northeastern "desidustrialization belt" from Lorraine to NPdC where his rhetoric should have played well). Aubry is "northern" in an almost caricatural way. Finally, the "empty France" is in love with Hollande... :P

Edit : Cantal should be black on Hollande map, as he got 58% there. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 15, 2011, 10:32:29 AM
Also, last tracker graphs before we know the candidate ! :)


Aubry :

()

Hollande :

()


It's too bad pollsters are unable to survey two races simultaneously... We still haven't had one damn poll since Borloo stepped down. >:(



Fab, I had a quick look at your tracker numbers on your blog and it looks like you messed things up somewhere : your blog indicates in the Hollande scenario "Joly 6,57 / Bayrou 5,66" while it's the reverse of what you posted here. Also, in both scenarioes, you seem to have flipped NDA and Boutin's numbers. I assumed the correct version was the forum one (as it's the most coherent with previous numbers). Check this out. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Beet on October 15, 2011, 10:48:28 AM
What is the position of this Montebourg gentleman on the euro? If he were truly strong in his principles he would not have endorsed Hollande. The PS has been completely captured by the neo-liberals.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 15, 2011, 11:01:24 AM
What is the position of this Montebourg gentleman on the euro? If he were truly strong in his principles he would not have endorsed Hollande. The PS has been completely captured by the neo-liberals.

Montebourg supported "European protectionism" so he didn't really campaign against the Euro. Anti-Euro folks probably voted for him anyways.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Beet on October 15, 2011, 11:21:10 AM
Is "European protectionism" kind of like the preservation of free trade within Europe but raising tariff barriers to countries outside it?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 15, 2011, 11:43:34 AM
Is "European protectionism" kind of like the preservation of free trade within Europe but raising tariff barriers to countries outside it?

Basically, yes.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 15, 2011, 02:33:14 PM
()

Let's go, with Baylet.

Of course, there are the usual strongholds of left radicals: Midi-Pyrénées, from Hautes-Pyrénées to Lot, Corsica, Eure-et-Loir and Eure, Charente-Maritime, inner East, Ain.
It's amazing to see these strengths on the map, whereas he had less than 1% in almost all the departments !

But Hollande has crushed him in some places, either by making him too small for the map, or (more likely) by stealing him some votes: Haute-Saône, Dordogne, Indre are very good examples.

When you see this map and Hollande's map (especially in Tarn-et-Garonne, maybe more than 2/3 of Baylet voters will choose Hollande in the second round... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 15, 2011, 02:37:59 PM
()

At first sight, I found this map weirdly close to an old FN map :P

But it's a bit more than that.
The weakness in a great Centre or Centre-West is due to Hollande's strength among "reasonable" people.

Strongholds are around big cities and especially "aware" and modern cities: Paris and close Parisian Basin, Strasbourg, Toulouse, Nice, Lyon, Montpellier, Tours, Orléans, Reims,...
He is really low in rural deserts and in the old workers North.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 15, 2011, 03:11:36 PM
Valls definitely looks like a bobo vote, with IdF, Alsace and Rhône-Alpes as main strongholds.

Valls' map might look bobo, but his electorate was mostly wealthy peoples. The bobo-electorate voted heavily for Martine. He might have gotten some bobo-ish young professionals who are well off, for example.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 15, 2011, 04:22:28 PM
()

As I've already said, Aubry's map make me think a bit of some LO-LCR maps, with this crescent (err... no... it's not a bad joke :P) from Brittany to Alsace. Of course, it's not perfect, because Lorraine is quite low for Aubry.

Of course, regional influence is a greater criterion, with Aubry herself, with Fabius, with Delanoë and with Emmanuelli.
I doubt Destot alone may have won a good score in Isère for Aubry (after all, Vallini is "hollandais"). Even more for Delaveau in Ille-et-Vilaine ;D not really a Great Leader, eh ?

Hence why I think the Green vote is readable in this map: Isère, Ille-et-Vilaine, Maine-et-Loire, Loire-Atlantique, Savoies, Alsace.

And really a "bobo" vote: Paris, Rennes, Grenoble, Lyon, Nantes.

It's not a very strong map, as it's related to some local bigwigs and as you can see she is low where you've got Royal OR Montebourg OR Hollande high.
But, of course, "weak" maps aren't what counts in urbanized countries...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 16, 2011, 12:38:09 AM
What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2011, 02:15:28 AM
What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 16, 2011, 02:44:54 AM
What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ... :P

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2011, 02:52:19 AM
What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ... :P

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 16, 2011, 02:56:22 AM
What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ... :P

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.

We just have to hope than they improved the capacity of their system.
And than they gave clear orders to the officers.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2011, 03:04:25 AM
What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ... :P

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.

We just have to hope than they improved the capacity of their system.
And than they gave clear orders to the officers.

Yeah. Hopefully.

So, when are the polls closing as Phil wanted to know ? 9pm (3pm Eastern) ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 16, 2011, 03:12:07 AM
Departement-by-departement 1st round results have now disappeared... Too bad I wanted to do one last map. >:(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on October 16, 2011, 03:23:15 AM
Departement-by-departement 1st round results have now disappeared... Too bad I wanted to do one last map. >:(

That's what happens when you leave things to Socialists ;)



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 16, 2011, 03:24:56 AM
What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ... :P

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.

We just have to hope than they improved the capacity of their system.
And than they gave clear orders to the officers.

Yeah. Hopefully.

So, when are the polls closing as Phil wanted to know ? 9pm (3pm Eastern) ?

7pm (1pm eastern)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 16, 2011, 03:25:53 AM
Departement-by-departement 1st round results have now disappeared... Too bad I wanted to do one last map. >:(

It is probably not on purpose, since national and local 1st round results are still avaliable.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 16, 2011, 03:27:34 AM
Departement-by-departement 1st round results have now disappeared... Too bad I wanted to do one last map. >:(

It is probably not on purpose, since national and local 1st round results are still avaliable.

I'm sure it's not purposeful, but it still sucks.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 04:43:32 AM
Antonio, I have a messy Excel file, if you want ;), typed with my little fingers :P
(EDIT: sent by mail on your gmail.com account)

Turnout is "up", say the socialists, but we don't know if it's 1%, 5%, 10% or 20%.
I guess it's partly "propaganda". I suppose it's not a tsunami, otherwise, American and Caribbean polling stations would have exploded or complained.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 16, 2011, 05:12:18 AM
Antonio, I have a messy Excel file, if you want ;), typed with my little fingers :P
(EDIT: sent by mail on your gmail.com account)

Didn't get it. Are you sure you got the adress correctly ? Thank you anyways, having an excel file will make things quite easier. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 07:35:36 AM
Antonio, I have a messy Excel file, if you want ;), typed with my little fingers :P
(EDIT: sent by mail on your gmail.com account)

Didn't get it. Are you sure you got the adress correctly ? Thank you anyways, having an excel file will make things quite easier. ;)

It's your adress given here: vitalone.antonio@gmail.com

Turnout at 13:00: 868 000 voters, against 800 000 last Sunday: +8.5%.
I've forecast +7%.

For the moment, it's still OK for Hollande, but if it's above 10%, it would begin to be less good for him, I think.

Montebourg has said that "many of his friends in Saône et Loire have voted for Aubry"...
Well, I've talked of a support similar to that of Chirac in 1981...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 16, 2011, 07:41:33 AM
Yes, the adress is correct, but I've received nothing. Weird... ???

Well, more participation is objectively a good thing. Now, if those new voters are Aubrysts... ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 16, 2011, 08:10:13 AM
Yes, the adress is correct, but I've received nothing. Weird... ???

You can find them here (http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%A9sultats_d%C3%A9taill%C3%A9s_de_la_primaire_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_socialiste_de_2011#R.C3.A9sultats_d.C3.A9taill.C3.A9s_par_d.C3.A9partement) too, but I don't know if they are really based on the final results...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 16, 2011, 08:25:49 AM
Yes, the adress is correct, but I've received nothing. Weird... ???

You can find them here (http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%A9sultats_d%C3%A9taill%C3%A9s_de_la_primaire_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_socialiste_de_2011#R.C3.A9sultats_d.C3.A9taill.C3.A9s_par_d.C3.A9partement) too, but I don't know if they are really based on the final results...

Thank you ! :) I'll try to do my map with them, and correct it if necessary, if ever the 1st round results are back.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2011, 10:38:14 AM
Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 10:51:26 AM
Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio :P).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2011, 10:53:16 AM
Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio :P).

Why exactly would you think that much higher turnout would not benefit Hollande ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 16, 2011, 10:58:25 AM
Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio :P).

Why exactly would you think that much higher turnout would not benefit Hollande ?

I guess that would mean non-PS voters (from the Left Front or the Greens), who lean strongly toward Aubry, turning out in significant numbers.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2011, 11:03:07 AM
Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio :P).

Why exactly would you think that much higher turnout would not benefit Hollande ?

I guess that would mean non-PS voters (from the Left Front or the Greens), who lean strongly toward Aubry, turning out in significant numbers.

On the other hand it could also be normal PS voters who didn't vote in round 1. After all, only 40% of PS voters voted in the first round.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 11:04:19 AM
Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio :P).

Why exactly would you think that much higher turnout would not benefit Hollande ?

I guess that would mean non-PS voters (from the Left Front or the Greens), who lean strongly toward Aubry, turning out in significant numbers.

Yep.

Unless people have understood the message of Hollande: "I need a great majority to have a huge legitimacy against Sarkozy"... Well, I don't believe this is an understandable point for many people.
I guess Aubry saying "vote with your guts and vote against the candidate of the system" is far more efficient...
Hope I'm wrong :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 11:06:06 AM
Well, Tender, you may be right; in my prediction, I've given 40% of new voters for Hollande (people from the PS who didn't vote in first round because Hollande was said so high in the polls) and 60% to Aubry (PCF, PG, Greens, NPA).
But it was only with a turnout of +7%.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 16, 2011, 11:13:31 AM
Hoping for a chaotic sh**tfest.

People on politiquemania saying that their local anecdotal evidence indicates a huge boost in turnout.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 11:33:57 AM
At 17:30, turnout of 1 650 000 +10%

Well, more than 1M are voting in the last hour and a half ?!?
Like in national elections, people are lazy and are doing things at the last minute: I hate that :P !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 16, 2011, 11:34:21 AM
Aubry should win this... she's by far, a better candidate, a better socialist, too. But I'm OK with Hollande. Everyone is better than Sarko (not including Le Pen)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 12:11:01 PM
In Guadeloupe-Martinique-Guyane, Hollande seems to win high but he was already high.
What is more important is taht the other candidates transfer big towards him.
But it's OVERSEAS, guys.... Be careful.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 16, 2011, 12:12:34 PM
Anecdotal rumours also favour Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 12:13:46 PM
Numbers are coming on the PS site.

http://resultats.lesprimairescitoyennes.fr/

But ?!? Where are the overseas territories in the rolling menu ?!?
Sh****

EDIT: just added... it begins chaotically !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2011, 12:14:25 PM
Numbers are coming on the PS site.

http://resultats.lesprimairescitoyennes.fr/

Thx. Just wanted to ask where I can find it.

;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 12:16:09 PM
FH 51.22 on 19 000...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 16, 2011, 12:16:28 PM
Uh, the difference between 'estimates' and 'validated' are really crazy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 12:19:49 PM
Uh, the difference between 'estimates' and 'validated' are really crazy.

Validated are probably overseas. And, from what we've seen last Sunday, it seems that a part of 'validated' are erased from the 'estimates'...
But I don't believe we can add them...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 16, 2011, 12:20:09 PM
The PS site is awful. The map could atleast be coloured or something, come on.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 16, 2011, 12:20:50 PM
The PS site is awful. The map could atleast be coloured or something, come on.

Well yeah, but it's the PS. Everything it touches turns to sh**t.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 12:24:24 PM
i-Télé says FH 77 in Guadeloupe, 72 in Martinique, 64 in Guyane.
That would mean that he is between +15 and +24, while she is only between +5 and +9.

FH 53.4 on 23 700

EDIT: take an eye on Loiret, Marne and Indre-et-Loire, closest results to national results in the first round. But they may be too rural...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 16, 2011, 12:35:50 PM
78% for Hollande in Melle (Ségolène Royal hometown) according to I-Télé.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 16, 2011, 12:36:26 PM
51 882 voix
François
Hollande
28 608 voix -
55.77%


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 12:39:26 PM
126 000
FH 56.79

It seems too high for me :( my poor predictions... poor UMP... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 16, 2011, 12:41:39 PM
126 000
FH 56.79

It seems too high for me :( my poor predictions... poor UMP... :P

Let's wait a bit. Only 5% of precincts are counted.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 16, 2011, 12:42:19 PM
Coming up to about 10% reporting, Hollande at 56.81%. :D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 16, 2011, 12:44:41 PM
Results apparently rural-heavy, so you know what that means. But Hollande is going to win.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 16, 2011, 12:45:27 PM
On 279,542 votes, 56,85% for Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2011, 12:46:03 PM
The next polls that will come out will probably show Hollande destroy Sarkozy by 65-35.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 16, 2011, 12:48:27 PM
I still see only 126,000 votes counted... ???


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 12:51:22 PM
No numbers from Paris, but already big numbers from Nord and Pas-de-Calais, so I guess that indeed

Hollande is the survivor ! ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 12:54:19 PM
483 000

56.48

Where is the "comeback girl" ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 12:55:47 PM
Seine-Maritime: already 1 polling station in 4 are in and she is only at 51.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 16, 2011, 12:56:45 PM
Yeah, Hollande's gonna be winning big. Won't even be close.

Good riddance to Aubry, really. She was getting on my nerves.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 16, 2011, 12:58:06 PM
Hollande's won this. Now, onto beating Sarko.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 16, 2011, 01:02:31 PM
So yeah, with 2/5 polls in, it seems hard for Aubry to win. What a shame.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: jeron on October 16, 2011, 01:03:16 PM
483 000

56.48

Where is the "comeback girl" ?

She 's only ahead in Nord and Pas de Calais, so no comeback here.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 01:04:21 PM
757 000
56.61

She's humiliated for the moment. Fine ! But a UMPer can't rejoice long :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 16, 2011, 01:12:17 PM
Considering all of the other candidates basically endorsed Francois, this shouldn't really be a surprise...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 16, 2011, 01:24:30 PM
There is something I don't get though. The "estimated" results say 4837/9425 polls are counted, ie more than half, but the vote total is only 1,179,448, which is far less than half of the 1st round total. So either turnout has actually fallen from the 1st round, or the polls counted so far are significantly smaller than average...

Indeed, a quick extrapolation assuming uniformly populated polls gives only around 2,4 milions...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 01:25:15 PM
Considering all of the other candidates basically endorsed Francois, this shouldn't really be a surprise...

That doesn't work like that, really.

Either the "vote utile" (useful vote) has been big, or Hollande was really victim of demobilization in the first round.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 01:27:26 PM
1 416 000
56.53


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 16, 2011, 01:31:02 PM
lol Aubry


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 16, 2011, 01:33:46 PM
Awwww-bry  :(


It would have been easier to root for Sarkozy over her.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 01:35:43 PM
1 634 000
56.45


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 16, 2011, 01:48:41 PM
Francois' over a million.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 02:09:09 PM
2 109 000
56.35


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 16, 2011, 02:09:42 PM
Does Nadine Morono make money or something when she says retarded things? Is she like in a contest with Cope and Jacob for "say the most inane things"?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 16, 2011, 02:21:14 PM
Does Nadine Morono make money or something when she says retarded things? Is she like in a contest with Cope and Jacob for "say the most inane things"?

She reminds me... well... a beheaded chicken that is still clucking.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 16, 2011, 02:30:48 PM
Rythm of updates slowing down... We'll probably not have more than 3/4ths of the ballots before I go to bed. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 16, 2011, 02:46:43 PM
I usually find him boring as a sack of potatoes, but Hollande gave a good speech. Nice way to really fire up the party, like Royal had failed to do in 2007 (because she was an arrogant entitled bitch).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 16, 2011, 03:42:29 PM
Preliminary map

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on October 16, 2011, 04:01:41 PM
Oh well, Hollande does have the benefit of seeming like his vague, personalist way of doing politics might give us 2 terms in the Elysée, which is probably just as well as one really, really good term.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 04:35:14 PM
Boring evening (I mean results: no suspense at all).

I failed big with my 51.5-48.5.
Polls too: they were at 52 or 53.

Hollande is really a fine tactician. He has proved it tonight too.
His speech at Solferino was really mitterrandian.
Messier inside his HQ.

Why this result ?
Aubry was excessive ? The leftists have a sole idea: beat Sarkozy ? Hollande voters were missing in the 1st round and they just came back ? Polls were right from the beginning :P ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 07:02:26 PM

Somme has just switched, for a fistful of votes, to Aubry.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 16, 2011, 08:07:44 PM
The stronger of the two candidates, so the better of the two possible results, even if... yeah.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 17, 2011, 03:01:30 AM

Actual result:

56.6% Hollande
43.4% Aubry

:)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 17, 2011, 12:06:39 PM
So it's over... I can't hide my disappointment, especially considering how promising the second round was, and how it was analysed by some friend of mine... :P Basically, I knew Hollande was going to win easily until the last week of campaign, and since then I've stupidly started to hope Aubry could pull a comeback (which was of course almost impossible for her). After all, I'm so used about people doing the wrong choice and putting personality and vagueness above competence and dedication, that I shouldn't even be complaining. Now, of course, I won't start saying Aubry was a great politician who would have been a formidable President : she had her flaws, maybe more of those than other candidates. She obviously doesn't come close to Jospin. But still, just like we did in 2002, we have kicked out of the race the candidate who would have been the best actual President. As Fabien certainly knows, the great Rocard put it better than anybody : "the qualities that make you able to win a presidential election are uncompatible which those that make you a good President". ;) Rocard was thousand times right, even though I still cherish inside mylself the staunch hope to eventually prove him wrong.

Now, let's stop whining, and look at the bright sides. Because there are. In my rationalist mood, I already started to list them before the election, in order to minimize a possible disappointment. So, here there are :
- First of all, this is a strong win. It's of course a bit sad for Aubry, but honestly, a 56% win for Hollande is by far preferable to a 50.1% win for him. This clear and straight win definitely kills any attempt by the UMP to delegitimize the candidate (of course, they would have tried to do if the margin had been narrower). Also, it helps giving the new candidate a momentum which he can keep for a few months (hopefully until the decisive december-february period).
- A Hollande victory leaves also far less potential to internal PS divisions. If Aubry had pulled a win (besides the fact such a win would have been quite narrow, see above), it would certainly had left far more serious wounds among the ex-future-winner. Hollandists would be extremely bitter to see their candidate losing after leading during the whole campaign, especially after Aubry's abrasive campaign in these last days. So they would be tempted to undermine her support, or at least not to help her as much as she will help Hollande now. Since Aubry is above all a party woman, she will remain loyal to the party's candidate (her last night's speech, extremely unambiguous, already proves it). As for Hollandists, they have no business starting a "long knives night" before even being sure of victory, and they know Aubry's help will be decisive especially for negociating with other parties.
- With this final campaign, Hollande has proven he can reply in an intelligent way when attacked. I (but Fabien too) clearly underestimated him when I thought he would be unable to frontally fight with Sarkozy. While Aubry is still stronger than him, he can do better than what he's shown us initially, and this will be a great asset for the actual campaign. His quiet and resolute style has worked well enough to convince left-wingers he was credible, and hopefully it will be the same with the whole France.
- As much as I dislike this argument, Hollande has strong intrinsecal assets to defeat Sarkozy. His appeal to centrist voters (especially now that Borloo retired), but also it's rural strength and his image of a quiet, modest, "normal" guy, could be a key for victory. Besides the obvious, simplistic arguments that has earned him so much support ("he's higher in polls !"), he has good characteristics for a candidate, especially against a sectarian President like Sarkozy.
- Hollande's team includes extremely clever, competent and good-willing people (Moscovici, Sapin...). Even though Hollande himself can be attacked as "too soft" those people will definitely do a great job as his ministers (Moscovici as PM ? Well, maybe I'm dreaming, but it would be a great pick :)). Aubry's team on the other hand was in great part filled with depressing apparatchiks like Fabius. Of course there are also good guys in Aubry's team and failures in Hollande's, but overall Hollande's seems better.
- Finally, Hollande's ability to attract local "notables" might be a very strong asset once he's in government. Once in power, the left will have to manage a left-wing Senate and overwhelmingly left-wing local institution. Maybe, having a "provincial" president might help keeping in touch with this "municipal socialists", making sure they remain loyal to the national majority and that their voice is heard into there. Of course this is also a drawback (what will he actually do against multiple officeholding ?), but a PS government can't afford losing the support of its local grassroots.

OK, so here is all I found, and I can say I've tried hard to find all this. :P I obviously won't deny I was very disappointed, but the general election is aproaching and we can't afford looking back. The only thing that matters is defeating Sarkozy in 2012, and with Hollande we have more than decent chances to succeed. Now, the most important. Mr. Hollande, François, a lot of left-wing people have voted for you because they thought you were the best candidate against Sarkozy. Without "vote utile", Aubry would probably have won. Listen, you were selected because we want you to win. So, you f**king got to beat Sarkozy in 2012. Or I swear God you'll pay.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 17, 2011, 04:42:08 PM
Thanks for that, Antonio. I didn't know who I would support if I were French (Joly or Hollande) but Sarkozy needs to loose and Hollande will be a good President.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 18, 2011, 02:10:49 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #24 - 17 October 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

Hollande   30,53
Sarkozy   22,25

Le Pen   16,27
Mélenchon   6,90
Joly   5,58
Bayrou   6,63
centre-right candidate   6,30
Villepin   3,43
Dupont-Aignan   0,41
Boutin   0,37
Nihous   0,04
Arthaud   0,90
Poutou   0,32
Chevènement   0,04
   
Hollande   58,33
Sarkozy   41,67

No new poll this week, so Sarkozy is just keeping heading down and Mélenchon heading up.

Hopefully, we'll soon have some polls, with 2 big changes:
- Borloo is out
- Hollande is the survivor.

Expect a big boost for Hollande, probably towards 35%.
It'll be interesting to see if Sarkozy is at least able to grasp 2 points from Borloo.
Bayrou should be slightly up. Morin should be tested.
Pay close attention to Joly and Mélenchon, in order to see if Aubry's defeat means a boost for them (I doubt it, though Mélenchon may be up again, as he is clearly on the rise).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 18, 2011, 02:20:28 AM
()

The strength of Hollande with 6 groups of 16 departments.

Well, it's mostly the same map as in the first round.
Montebourg's, Royal's and Baylet's appeals have had effect only in their own local strongholds: Burgundy, Poitou-Charentes, Tarn-et-Garonne and few other departments with leftist radical tradition.

It gives us a clue on vote transfers from 1st to 2nd round (and of my big failure in predicting the 2nd round :P): vote transfers were pretty homogeneous and didn't have, overall, an effect on the hierarchy of the 2 final candidates.

After all, maybe polls weren't bad at all: 56,5%, that's what they have predicted before round 1, including OpinionWay, which was then very accurate....

Maybe the 1st round results were the real.... outlier !
Maybe many "natural" Hollande voters didn't vote because they thought he would be ahead anyway. And maybe some Hollande voters had some "fun" in 1st round, exactly like in a presidential election, when Besancenot, Laguiller, Villiers,... have bigger results than anticipated.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 18, 2011, 02:51:59 AM
Fab, can you give us a last tracker for Aubry, so that we know exactly where she stood when she lost ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: ZuWo on October 18, 2011, 08:01:33 AM
I'm certainly not adding anything new to the discussion, but these numbers look awful for Sarkozy. It seems Sarkozy needs a DSK-esque scandal by Hollande two weeks before the election in spring to win ...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 18, 2011, 09:06:13 AM

Strong Aubry departments which lack a major city:
Landes (Emmanuelli?)
Hautes-Alpes (good Montebourg vote transfers?)
Haute-Loire
Ardeche (though the north is basically Lyon exurbs, though that is favourable to Hollande)
Ain (see above)
Yonne (see above)
Drome (probably Green-effect)
Haute-Marne (imo, the weirdest)

You might say Eure and Somme don't really have a huge city, but they're more urbanized than the above and are close to Aubryist-Fabiusian bases.

Any ideas or explanations?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on October 18, 2011, 11:25:44 AM
So, you f**king got to beat Sarkozy in 2012. Or I swear God you'll pay.
And you bloddy well got to beat him by more than you beat Aubry!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 18, 2011, 03:05:39 PM
Fab, can you give us a last tracker for Aubry, so that we know exactly where she stood when she lost ?

I'm sorry, but no: already erased her datas :P
Basically, it's the same thing as the week before...
Sorry again.



As for Hash's questions, well,
Eure is under Seine-Maritime influence and Parisian influence, like Yonne.

Hautes-Alpes has been good for Greens in the past years.
And maybe there is a personality factor: rough people in Queyras and Briançonnais who like a rough woman...
It may be the same in some parts of Somme, Meurthe-et-Moselle. But, sure, it doesn't work in Lozère, Doubs, Vosges or Ardennes :P

Ardèche has Lyon's influence, sure, plus a Green minorty vote along the Rhône, plus Dussopt, the young PS deputy who has been very active in her campaign (he is a "fan" of the northern lady, you know ? ;)).
Haute-Loire is maybe a mix of Ard-èche and Hautes-Alpes explanations.

Landes is of course the land of Emmanuelli (Hamon did big there in 2008, and in Pyrénées-Atlantiques too).

Drôme has a big Green effect (Michèle Rivasi, chemical industry, nuclear plants) and Lyon's influence too, plus an old Mermazian tradition (more than Isère, which had Dubedout and has now Destot or Vallini), which means quite a leftist and orthodox local PS.

Haute-Marne had a special result in 2008: the ecologist wing of the PS was strong only here. I don't know what this "pôle écologique" is made of now, but that can be an explanation.

Sometimes, I think there are also some regional votings: I mean, Burgundy was loyal to Montebourg even towards Hollande.
Maybe Eure, Ardèche, Drôme, only vote like the rest of their region.
There are many counter-examples of course, but which we can explain: Ille-et-Vilaine is not really Britaany :P, Aisne has the very special Thiérache in it, Hautes-Alpes isn't entirely in "Provence"...

And, eventually, remember, there may be only 0.1% between the lowest department of a colour and the highest of the other colour ;D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 19, 2011, 03:42:18 AM
The next polls that will come out will probably show Hollande destroy Sarkozy by 65-35.

Well, not so bad - but almost:

New CSA poll: Hollande 62%, Sarkozy 38%

http://www.tagesschau.sf.tv/Nachrichten/Archiv/2011/10/19/International/Sarkozy-Herausforderer-Hollande-liegt-klar-vorn


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 19, 2011, 11:59:33 AM
Fab, can you give us a last tracker for Aubry, so that we know exactly where she stood when she lost ?

I'm sorry, but no: already erased her datas :P
Basically, it's the same thing as the week before...
Sorry again.

Heck Fab, I didn't imagine you'd be so petty ! ;D As soon as she lost you wanted to have the satisfaction to "erase" her, literally ! That's not a very "sportive" attitude... ;)

So, anyways, here is her final, adjusted graph :

()


And now what's become the official presidential tracker's graph :

()


So far, the numbers look amazing for Hollande. He only has to maintain such a lead, and victory is assured. Still, I long to see what numbers will look like once we'll have the first post-Borloo and post-Primary polls.

Fab, I advice you to switch your ponderation differential to 20% now. With the PS having its candidate, pollsters will fully focus on the main race and we'll probably see enough polls to make the tracker viable that way.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 19, 2011, 12:47:27 PM
Eh, if I've done what you've already said, we would have run out of polls... :P
Remember, French pollsters are lazy and French medias are very suspectful towards polls (hence, order less and hence weaken polls' reliability :P). I'll wait a bit ;D as I'm not so sure we'll have many polls until... Xmas.

In CSA (I'll publish it tomorrow), Hollande is already at 35%. Morin and Lepage are in but Borloo dissipated with giving only 1 or 2 points to Sarkozy...
Honestly, how can he win ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 19, 2011, 01:38:08 PM
CSA, September 19-20 2011
1010 people 18+, of which 859 RVs.

Hollande 35% (+7)
Sarkozy 25% (+1)
Le Pen 16% (-2)
Bayrou 9% (+2)
Melenchon 5% (-1)
Joly 3% (-1)
Villepin 2% (-3)
Boutin 1.5% (+1)
Morin 1%
Arthaud 1% (-0.5)
Poutou 0.5% (=)
Lepage 0.5%
NDA 0.5% (=)

Hollande 62%
Sarko 38%

Other bad stuff for the right:
61% of people say they certainly won't vote for Sarkozy, and his vote potential is 36% to Hollande's 57%
60% of UMP sympathizers want an open primary on the right
50% of righties say the PS comes out the primaries united and strengthened
13% of righties say Hollande is "really left-wing"

Not as awful stuff:
Sarkozy is the favourite of UMP and righties for "best candidate of the right" stuff. But only with 44% and 39% respectively.

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.csa.eu%2Fmultimedia%2Fdata%2Fsondages%2Fdata2011%2Fopi20111017-le-bilan-des-primaires-socialistes-et-les-intentions-de-vote-pour-l-election-presidentielle-de-2012.pdf


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 19, 2011, 02:15:26 PM
In CSA (I'll publish it tomorrow), Hollande is already at 35%.

And let me assure you he will be higher in tomorrow morning's poll, it gonna be really big ;)

What I like in this CSA poll is the analysis: they dare to say Hollande is at a fair level among the working-class voters when he polls at 28%, 7 points under his polling total. Well, ok, he is first among this group, but he is tied with Marine... Clearly, Terra Nova was right earlier this year, saying the working class is lost for the left in France, too.

BTW, I was just noticing that many pollster now have a sample of 1000 respondents from which they extract about 850/900 registered voters. I'm not sure, but IIRC, in 2007, the standard was a 1000 RV's sample, right?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 19, 2011, 02:37:33 PM
Eh, if I've done what you've already said, we would have run out of polls... :P
Remember, French pollsters are lazy and French medias are very suspectful towards polls (hence, order less and hence weaken polls' reliability :P). I'll wait a bit ;D as I'm not so sure we'll have many polls until... Xmas.

Well, I understand your concerns. It's a shame because having a lot of polls right now would be absolutely necessary, but if you are right it's indeed wiser to stay at 15% until december... And maybe to stay at 20% until the very end. That way, we're sure it remains a tracker and not a simple polling average of the moment.


Quote
In CSA (I'll publish it tomorrow), Hollande is already at 35%. Morin and Lepage are in but Borloo dissipated with giving only 1 or 2 points to Sarkozy...
Honestly, how can he win ?

His odds are pretty low right now and to win he would ned Hollande to make a (maybe several) major mistakes, but let's not exagerate things : nobody is "done" with 6 months to go to the election, and there is always the possibility of an upset.


So, you f**king got to beat Sarkozy in 2012. Or I swear God you'll pay.
And you bloddy well got to beat him by more than you beat Aubry!

No, sadly that won't happen, Lewis. Don't trust the current polls, because they will inevitably go down a bit. Presidential elections in France are always extremely polarized, and it's almost impossible for a candidate to win over 55% (even De Gaulle only barely went over this threshold).


Anyways, here's the famous map I was talking about Saturday :

()

Hollande-Aubry relative margin in the 1st round, ie the margin of victory minus the national margin, useful to see more clearly each candidate's strength.

I'll do the same map for the 2nd round as soon as we have the official data (BTW, when are they going to count these damn 18 polls left ?!?).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 19, 2011, 10:48:06 PM
Chances Sarkozy just doesn't run?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 19, 2011, 11:54:44 PM

Impossible. If there is one certainty in this campaign, it's that Sarkozy will be the UMP candidate.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 20, 2011, 08:27:45 AM
The next polls that will come out will probably show Hollande destroy Sarkozy by 65-35.

Well, not so bad - but almost:

New CSA poll: Hollande 62%, Sarkozy 38%

http://www.tagesschau.sf.tv/Nachrichten/Archiv/2011/10/19/International/Sarkozy-Herausforderer-Hollande-liegt-klar-vorn

It's getting closer ! New BVA poll:

Hollande 64%, Sarkozy 36%

http://www.expatica.com/fr/news/french-news/socialist-hollande-would-crush-france-s-sarkozy-poll_183275.html


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 20, 2011, 08:36:07 AM
These numbers are marvellous... Too bad they won't last.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on October 20, 2011, 10:34:31 AM
These numbers are marvellous... Too bad they won't last.

What would your actual prediction be if the election were held today?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 20, 2011, 11:21:22 AM
These numbers are marvellous... Too bad they won't last.

What would your actual prediction be if the election were held today?

Today ? My guts would say 58/42 at very best. French people have never given commanding margins to any presidential candidate, even when the polls indicated it was possible. Right now Hollande has a big mo' because of the universal hatred toward Sarkozy, the primaries and Borloo's retirement driving a few center-right voters who don't like Sarkozy toward him. But even then, I'd easily see 3-5% of voters saying they will vote Hollande an then vote Sarkozy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 20, 2011, 02:17:24 PM
I'm lazy, guys.
If you want details on CSA and BVA recent polls, go to my blog (link in my signature). In French but results are quite clear :P

Of course, I'll keep publishing my tracker here, as usual.
Hollande will bounce big !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on October 20, 2011, 02:42:01 PM
If anybody thinks Hollande or anybody can win nearly 40% in the first round, I'd like to sell them my beachfront property in Saskatchewan.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 20, 2011, 03:25:15 PM
If anybody thinks Hollande or anybody can win nearly 40% in the first round, I'd like to sell them my beachfront property in Saskatchewan.

Yeah, he will end up in the very low 30s at best (and that will still be a great score).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 21, 2011, 01:48:27 AM
If anybody thinks Hollande or anybody can win nearly 40% in the first round, I'd like to sell them my beachfront property in Saskatchewan.

Yeah, he will end up in the very low 30s at best (and that will still be a great score).

Indeed, there is the foreseeable effect of the primary, the fact that these are the first polls since Borloo dropped out and the fact that BVA didn't include any other rightist or centre-rightist candidate than Sarkozy (and didn't even add Lepage).

We are entering a weird period: Hollande will try to be more discrete (clever, I think), while Sarkozy will be burned out by the crisis :P
Hollande may well still be over 32 in January.
Of course, in April, he'd be glad to have 28: Bayrou, Mélenchon, maybe some small candidate will have better numbers. And, of course, there is Panzergirl, again the big question mark.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 21, 2011, 08:26:14 AM
I'm lazy, guys.
If you want details on CSA and BVA recent polls, go to my blog (link in my signature). In French but results are quite clear :P

Of course, I'll keep publishing my tracker here, as usual.
Hollande will bounce big !

And, today, an IFOP poll, close to CSA numbers, with a 60-40 for the second round.
To be published later today.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 21, 2011, 09:23:41 PM
Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 21, 2011, 09:33:57 PM
Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Oh Lord, what now? Details?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 21, 2011, 09:41:41 PM
Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Oh Lord, what now? Details?

A complicated thing about the Carlton Hotel in Lille.
A prostitution ring. They suspect Lille police chief to be one of ring leaders and DSK to be a customer.

They were offering soirees for free to DSK, paid by the police leader and businessmen. Some of those businessmen often went in Washington to meet with him.

A mix of prostitution, corrupt policemen and influence trafic.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jsLYX_4YnJ1qVXpL7MyGz4FsXGVg?docId=CNG.de80727976bb112284b8f6a2d4707c0c.281 (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jsLYX_4YnJ1qVXpL7MyGz4FsXGVg?docId=CNG.de80727976bb112284b8f6a2d4707c0c.281)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 22, 2011, 02:42:35 AM
Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Nah. If the DSK affair made Hollande gain 5 points, I don't see how this little stuff could hurt him. I've the impression people don't even associate him with the PS anymore (except when he talks about his "sercret" deals with Aubry :P).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on October 22, 2011, 02:48:02 AM
Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Nah. If the DSK affair made Hollande gain 5 points, I don't see how this little stuff could hurt him. I've the impression people don't even associate him with the PS anymore (except when he talks about his "sercret" deals with Aubry :P).

True. That is a good thing than he was stopped in May, then. All that coming out after he would have won the primary would have been dreadful...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 22, 2011, 02:54:36 AM
Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Nah. If the DSK affair made Hollande gain 5 points, I don't see how this little stuff could hurt him. I've the impression people don't even associate him with the PS anymore (except when he talks about his "sercret" deals with Aubry :P).

True. That is a good thing than he was stopped in May, then. All that coming out after he would have won the primary would have been dreadful...

Yeah, definitely. Don't make me even think to such a catastrophe...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 22, 2011, 07:32:54 AM
Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Nah. If the DSK affair made Hollande gain 5 points, I don't see how this little stuff could hurt him. I've the impression people don't even associate him with the PS anymore (except when he talks about his "sercret" deals with Aubry :P).

True. That is a good thing than he was stopped in May, then. All that coming out after he would have won the primary would have been dreadful...

Yeah, definitely. Don't make me even think to such a catastrophe..

And there are also some new stuff about the young Marie-Victorine, daughter of a black PS rank-and-file, who had sexual relations with DSK when he was minister or just before, and who attempted to kill herself...

But, don't worry, DSK is DSK and the PS is the PS. The only one who will fall will probably be Pupponi, the mayor of Sarcelles.
Otherwise, even if many people knew some details, I don't think it will hurt them.
And, meanwhile, you'll have new developments on Karachi affair, so even though Hollande lose 1 or 2 points, Sarkozy will lose 6 or 7 in the meantime... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 22, 2011, 10:45:45 AM
Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Oh Lord, what now? Details?

A complicated thing about the Carlton Hotel in Lille.
A prostitution ring. They suspect Lille police chief to be one of ring leaders and DSK to be a customer.

They were offering soirees for free to DSK, paid by the police leader and businessmen. Some of those businessmen often went in Washington to meet with him.

A mix of prostitution, corrupt policemen and influence trafic.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jsLYX_4YnJ1qVXpL7MyGz4FsXGVg?docId=CNG.de80727976bb112284b8f6a2d4707c0c.281 (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jsLYX_4YnJ1qVXpL7MyGz4FsXGVg?docId=CNG.de80727976bb112284b8f6a2d4707c0c.281)

That's so sordid that it's almost impressive.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 24, 2011, 04:13:54 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #25 - 24 October 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

Hollande   35,10
Sarkozy   23,59

Le Pen   16,38
Bayrou   7,46
Mélenchon   6,33
Joly   4,50
Villepin   2,03
Morin   2,25
Lepage   0,19
Dupont-Aignan   0,37
Boutin   0,46
Nihous   0,10
Arthaud   0,96
Poutou   0,28
Chevènement   0,00
   
Hollande   61,41
Sarkozy   38,59

4 new polls are in... a huge boost for Hollande. Morin still has some points from Borloo, but not for long. Bayrou is slowly rising.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 25, 2011, 02:21:48 AM
Amazing to see how the center-right suddenly dropped by almost 5 points with these new polls...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 27, 2011, 04:50:47 AM
Still interested in a few more primary maps ? Here is 2nd round relative margin :

()

To compare with 1st round :


Both candidates seem stronger in their original strongholds, which is logical enough.


And here is the evolution of turnout :

()

Huge North/South divide... If you compare to the maps above, it seems like big turnout generally favored Aubry, but it's not extremely clear (see Rhone-Alpes and IdF).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 27, 2011, 05:11:58 AM
Sciences Po's precinct :

Hollande : 334 (38.7%)
Aubry : 237 (27.5%)
Valls : 152 (17.6%)
Montebourg : 88 (10.2%)
Royal : 45 (5.2%)
Baylet : 7 (0.8%)

Hollande : 533 (62.7%)
Aubry : 317 (37.3%)

Turnout down to 855 from 866.


Quote
My Vélizy precinct :

Hollande : 175 (41.2%)
Aubry : 116 (27.3%)
Montebourg : 65 (15.3%)
Valls : 38 (8.9%)
Royal : 26 (6.1%)
Baylet : 5 (1.2%)

Hollande : 264 (62.4%)
Aubry : 159 (37.6%)

Turnout down to 424 from 427.


Quote
Brison-Saint-Innocent (73) precinct :

Hollande : 146 (38.2%)
Aubry : 100 (26.2%)
Montebourg : 81 (21.2%)
Valls : 29 (7.6%)
Royal : 25 (6.5%)
Baylet : 1 (0.3%)

Hollande : 243 (60.1%)
Aubry : 161 (39.9%)

Turnout up to 404 from 382.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 28, 2011, 05:00:55 AM
Very interesting maps (I'm too busy these days, but I wanted to do these, plus some with a comparison Hollande+Montebourg+Royal with Hollande 2nd round for example):

it's already very clear: appeals from candidates of the 1st round were of no effect, except a bit from Royal.

That is not logical: on the contrary, it's quite surprising. But it confirms me in my thought that the 1st round was the outlier.... not the polls....


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 28, 2011, 05:17:45 AM
Very interesting maps (I'm too busy these days, but I wanted to do these, plus some with a comparison Hollande+Montebourg+Royal with Hollande 2nd round for example):

it's already very clear: appeals from candidates of the 1st round were of no effect, except a bit from Royal.

Well, there was probably a significant Valls effect in Southwest IdF (which flipped my departement on the "bad" side >:(), and a Baylet effect in, well, Tarn-et-Garronne. ;D That said, Montebourg doesn't seem to have had any influence (Aubry is up in Rhône-Alpes and Franche-Comté, but down in PACA and Saône-et-Loire...).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: greenforest32 on October 28, 2011, 05:43:58 AM
Hopefully this keeps up and Sarkozy loses in 2012. Now that they control the Senate, what are the chances the left gains a majority in the lower legislative chamber?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 28, 2011, 05:54:15 AM
Hopefully this keeps up and Sarkozy loses in 2012. Now that they control the Senate, what are the chances the left gains a majority in the lower legislative chamber?

Most likely. Since 2002, the parliamentary majority is directly tied with the Presidential winner. If Hollande wins, I've difficulties to see him lose considering the "wind of change" momentum the PS would gain (see 1981, even though, of course, the PS won't do that well for tons of reasons). But even if Sarkozy manages to pull an upset victory, there is a fair chance he still loses legislatives. People hate Sarkozy, and they aren't going to love it 6 months from now. If they reelect it, it will be because they would fear to "change their captain amid the storm", but they'll probably still want to make sure Sarko screws they the way he's done since 2007. So they could very well still vote for the left in legislatives.

Such a prediction isn't based on any data (because pollsters don't bother to poll legislatives before the president is known), so take it carefully. But this is my guess.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on October 28, 2011, 06:03:34 AM
No baby bump for Sarko? Goodgood. Very good. Or are there not enough polls since to say for sure?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 28, 2011, 08:10:08 AM
No baby bump for Sarko? Goodgood. Very good. Or are there not enough polls since to say for sure?

We can always wait for a few other polls to come in the next days, but doesn't seem so.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on October 31, 2011, 09:06:28 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #26 - 31 October 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

Hollande   35,36
Sarkozy   23,66

Le Pen   16,37
Bayrou   7,49
Mélenchon   6,28
Joly   4,46
Villepin   1,94
Morin   2,05
Lepage   0,20
Dupont-Aignan   0,37
Boutin   0,47
Nihous   0,11
Arthaud   0,96
Poutou   0,28
Chevènement   0,00
   
Hollande   61,41
Sarkozy   38,59


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 31, 2011, 10:05:43 AM
Stupid French pollsters. They come with 4 new polls in a week, and then ABSOLUTELY NOTHING the next one...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on October 31, 2011, 11:15:21 AM
Stupid French pollsters. They come with 4 new polls in a week, and then ABSOLUTELY NOTHING the next one...
Hey, if you have something like €15,000 to spend, I'm pretty sure some polling compagnies would warmly welcome you ;)
Seriously, you should blame those who paid for these polls rather than the pollsters themselves.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 31, 2011, 11:31:31 AM
Stupid French pollsters. They come with 4 new polls in a week, and then ABSOLUTELY NOTHING the next one...
Hey, if you have something like €15,000 to spend, I'm pretty sure some polling compagnies would warmly welcome you ;)
Seriously, you should blame those who paid for these polls rather than the pollsters themselves.

True, it's the medias which prefer to spend time with useless and clueless blabbering about such smart questions like "will Sarkozy run again ?", "can Ségolène Royal win the PS primary ?" or about Hollande's new look.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on November 06, 2011, 05:13:59 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #27 - 7 November 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

Hollande   35,58
Sarkozy   23,84

Le Pen   17,03
Bayrou   7,03
Mélenchon   6,15
Joly   4,81
Villepin   1,84
Morin   1,30
Lepage   0,16
Dupont-Aignan   0,40
Boutin   0,36
Nihous   0,09
Arthaud   0,96
Poutou   0,46
Chevènement   0,00
   
Hollande   61,58
Sarkozy   38,42

One new poll this week, from IPSOS (still not published on my blog, but I was in the hospital this week and very busy at work :P).

Hollande is still on the rise.
Mélenchon is down again, while Joly is slightly up and Bayrou slightly down: all the trends which seemed new are stopped.
But, but, but, this is IPSOS which seems to undervalue Bayrou this year and overvalue Le Pen (she is indeed up again in our tracker).

Hollande has lost enthusiasm I think, but he is still very, very strong.
It's too early to say if the crisis is benefiting Le Pen or anyone else.
Hollande is a dull winner but a very solid one, for the moment.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on November 07, 2011, 01:48:13 PM


Hollande   35,58
Sarkozy   23,84

Le Pen   17,03
Bayrou   7,03
Mélenchon   6,15
Joly   4,81
Villepin   1,84
Morin   1,30
Lepage   0,16
Dupont-Aignan   0,40
Boutin   0,36
Nihous   0,09
Arthaud   0,96
Poutou   0,46
Chevènement   0,00
   




so, for all lefts, i count : 47,96 %


but, since 1995, total left is (maximum) 40 %


so, my predict is : holland will lose a lot of %. He is overestimated.



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on November 07, 2011, 02:20:04 PM
test : what if....proportionnal is introduced


I use results of cantonales 2011 for the test. Misc right goes to UMP, and presidential majority too, misc left goes to PS


()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 07, 2011, 02:26:02 PM
test : what if....proportionnal is introduced


I use results of cantonales 2011 for the test. Misc right goes to UMP, and presidential majority too, misc left goes to PS


()

I'd advice you to rather take the regionals : far "cleaner" results (with less "miscellaneous right/left"), and they have the advantage to be actual PR elections. It's hard to extrapolate what the PR results would be when the voting system is majoritarian.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 10, 2011, 11:54:11 AM
1st Round :

()


2nd Round :

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on November 15, 2011, 09:56:53 AM
Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems. :(
The tracker will be updated... soon.

An interesting work by CSA on PS primary turnout's components:
http://www.csa.eu/multimedia/data/sondages/data2011/opi20111031-des-primaires-populaires.pdf


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on November 15, 2011, 10:07:44 AM
Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems. :(
The tracker will be updated... soon.



So sorry to hear that.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 15, 2011, 04:55:45 PM
Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems. :(
The tracker will be updated... soon.



So sorry to hear that.

^^^^


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 16, 2011, 03:24:43 PM
Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems. :(
The tracker will be updated... soon.



So sorry to hear that.

^^^^


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on November 16, 2011, 03:39:07 PM
Any recent polls for the parliamentary elections next year?  And who is likely to be Hollande's PM should the Socialists get a majority?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 16, 2011, 03:45:15 PM
As a general rule there aren't polls of the parliamentary elections until after the Presidential one. Because there's no point.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 16, 2011, 04:23:35 PM
As for the second question, it will be whoever Hollande wants. In France, we have a tradition not to speculate about hypothetical PMs. The only candidate who ever ran on a "ticket", Gaston Defferre in 1969 (promising to appoint Mendès-France), got 5%. :P The choice will depend on the political balance inside the party, of Hollande's strategy (Mitterrand liked to appoint his "enemies" like Mauroy or Rocard), and of plenty of political factors.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on November 18, 2011, 11:26:14 AM
Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems. :(

So sorry to hear that.


Not sorry to hear that. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on November 18, 2011, 11:43:17 AM
The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on November 18, 2011, 07:18:37 PM
The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.
Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 18, 2011, 07:36:43 PM
The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.
Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

Probably not. This happens in every constituency system...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 18, 2011, 07:41:33 PM
The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.
Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

Well, they've had it before.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on November 18, 2011, 07:50:38 PM
The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.
Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

The PS-Green deal involves some sort of MMP system for the next elections, with some 20% of seats elected by PR.

Apparently no deal whatsoever between the FG and PS-Greens. All PCF incumbents will have PS and Green opponents.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 18, 2011, 08:24:27 PM
The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.
Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

The PS-Green deal involves some sort of MMP system for the next elections, with some 20% of seats elected by PR.

Apparently no deal whatsoever between the FG and PS-Greens. All PCF incumbents will have PS and Green opponents.

If it's only 20%, there's barely much point. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 19, 2011, 04:35:57 AM
The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.
Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

The PS-Green deal involves some sort of MMP system for the next elections, with some 20% of seats elected by PR.

Apparently no deal whatsoever between the FG and PS-Greens. All PCF incumbents will have PS and Green opponents.

If it's only 20%, there's barely much point. :P

It surely won't affect the overall distribution of seats much, but it can make a big difference for small parties. For example, in 2007, the MoDem won 7.6% of the vote but only 3 seats out of 577 (0.5%). With a 20% PR, it would have certainly gotten more than 10.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on November 19, 2011, 06:13:53 AM
last IFOP poll


hollande 32.5  (-2.5)
sarkozy 26 (+1)
le pen 19 (+2)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 20, 2011, 05:43:25 AM
Fab, as soon as you have the time to update your tracker, please don't forget to give us last monday's version ! I really don't want to have missing dots in my graph. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 20, 2011, 11:32:36 AM
last IFOP poll


hollande 32.5  (-2.5)
sarkozy 26 (+1)
le pen 19 (+2)

Surge-kozy begins.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 20, 2011, 11:57:08 AM
last IFOP poll


hollande 32.5  (-2.5)
sarkozy 26 (+1)
le pen 19 (+2)

Surge-kozy begins.

Or, the Marine-Momentum!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on November 20, 2011, 11:59:27 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #28 - 14 November 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

Hollande   34,95
Sarkozy   24,63

Le Pen   17,8
Bayrou   6,89
Mélenchon   5,86
Joly   4,70
Villepin   1,99
Morin   0,78
Lepage   0,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,60
Boutin   0,28
Nihous   0,05
Arthaud   0,51
Poutou   0,39
Chevènement   0,16
   
Hollande   60,02
Sarkozy   39,98

Don't worry, Antonio, l'exhaustivité est ma devise !

Here is the tracker for last week... :P
Hollande isn't really down, or just pulls back from its surreal highs.
Globally speaking, there is some sort of polarization around the big 3, as Mélenchon and Bayrou don't surge at all, contrary to what it has seemed for some weeks. Joly i still weak.
Morin has sunk among irrelevant small candidates.

Hollande isn't really in danger in the second round either.
He's just back at 60...

Very, very soon, my tracker for this week :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 20, 2011, 01:02:30 PM
I've just heard about a LH2 poll giving 30 to Hollande and 29 for Sarkozy. Was it published ?

I know LH2 sucks, but how can this be true ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 20, 2011, 01:20:23 PM
I've just heard about a LH2 poll giving 30 to Hollande and 29 for Sarkozy. Was it published ?

I know LH2 sucks, but how can this be true ?

Eurocrisis bounce?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on November 20, 2011, 03:25:05 PM




you know, IFOP is under control of Laurence Parisot, so... one or another...same sh*t


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on November 20, 2011, 03:28:22 PM




you know, IFOP is under control of Laurence Parisot, so... one or another...same sh*t

IFOP has big samples and is the closest of the tracker's results. This is, for the moment, the best pollstr for 2012.
For the moment.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 20, 2011, 03:30:44 PM




you know, IFOP is under control of Laurence Parisot, so... one or another...same sh*t

So ? IFOP has always had pretty good results and their numbers are more or less in line with other serious polls. And I really doubt Parisot's interests are to make biased polls for Sarkozy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on November 20, 2011, 03:32:25 PM
I know that. I make a misunderstooding (hum...)

I mean...i don't talk about efficiency, but about ideological minds behind big poll institutes.



(in an idealist world, electoral polls would been forbidden...and we would have VERY exciting night-elections days^^)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on November 20, 2011, 03:36:05 PM
I've just heard about a LH2 poll giving 30 to Hollande and 29 for Sarkozy. Was it published ?

I know LH2 sucks, but how can this be true ?

It has just been published. But LH2 is, for the moment, the pollster which has been the farthest away from the tracker. Really, it seems to be the worst, this turn.

And, in its previous poll, Hollande was at 39... :P
As for this poll, Le Pen is only at 15, clearly giving an advantage to Sarkozy (+5 at 29).
And Chevènement (at its best at 1.5), Mélenchon as high as 7 (+0.5), Joly as high as 6 (+1), all have a bad impact for Hollande.

For the moment, this poll is clearly an outlier.
For the second round, Hollande is still at 58.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on November 20, 2011, 03:52:38 PM
anyway, those 2e round results are fantaisist

even De Gaulle didn't break the wall of 56 points

and in 1980, for poll institutes, Giscard was given winner by 60-40 vs Mitterrand...

the 2012 2e round will be more too close-to-call (except if Marine goes in final)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 20, 2011, 04:05:24 PM
Does ponderated mean weighted?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on November 20, 2011, 04:08:24 PM
Clearly so.

Including etymologically (except that the English form is pondered, of course).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on November 21, 2011, 10:08:44 AM
anyway, those 2e round results are fantaisist

even De Gaulle didn't break the wall of 56 points

and in 1980, for poll institutes, Giscard was given winner by 60-40 vs Mitterrand...

the 2012 2e round will be more too close-to-call (except if Marine goes in final)

Well, of course I have no clue about what will be the outcome of the 2012 election, but I really think it is not because since the beginning of the Fifth Republic, the six left-wing vs. right-wing presidential elections were rather close that it will be again the case next year. I don't understand why we would be that exceptional in that regard.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on November 21, 2011, 12:21:20 PM
Ah, another bounce in the polls for Sarko...only to fade away, like last time, probably (hopefully).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on November 21, 2011, 06:28:29 PM
What passes for a "bounce" for Sarko these days means he is losing by 20 points instead of losing by 30 points....


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on November 22, 2011, 06:01:58 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #29 - 21 November 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

Hollande 33,62
Sarkozy 25,92
Le Pen 17,57
Mélenchon 5,93
Bayrou 6,78
Joly 4,57
Morin 0,64
Villepin 1,86
Boutin 0,33
Dupont-Aignan 0,75
Nihous 0,1
Arthaud 0,49
Poutou 0,34
Chevènement 0,69
Lepage 0,41

Hollande 59,32
Sarkozy 40,68


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on November 23, 2011, 04:15:31 PM
()

Antonio's graph is finer, but in the meantime... ;)

As for the 2nd round, it's more boring:

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 24, 2011, 05:04:54 AM
If you really want it to be updated week-by-week, I can go with it. I just don't find it useful personally. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on November 24, 2011, 08:25:58 AM
If you really want it to be updated week-by-week, I can go with it. I just don't find it useful personally. :P

Oh no, you do as you wish.
It's just that I had my files open and used them for my blog and so just put the graphs here as I hadn't to wast too much time...
But loading the file through photobucket gives a sh***y result here :P

(maybe also that, without being aware of it, I like this downward pink line ;D)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 25, 2011, 05:25:59 AM
If you really want it to be updated week-by-week, I can go with it. I just don't find it useful personally. :P

Oh no, you do as you wish.
It's just that I had my files open and used them for my blog and so just put the graphs here as I hadn't to wast too much time...
But loading the file through photobucket gives a sh***y result here :P

(maybe also that, without being aware of it, I like this downward pink line ;D)

I understand it. ;) In some way, I'm also happy Hollande didn't break 36%, as that would have forced me to "compress" my graph even more. :P

Though, I feel a tad concerned by all this mediatic blabbering about how "Hollande is losing ground" : it can always turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. I'm not too concerned, though, especially since no 2nd round poll puts him below 58%. ;)

ROFLMAO at Eva Joly. Damn, I really didn't imagine she could f-ck things up that bad for her party. Ending like Lipietz'02 ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on November 25, 2011, 05:46:46 AM
The very fact that there was a Lipietz '02 failure will prevent a Joly '12 crash.
But it may give Bayrou another small boost.
Bayrou is clearly hunting for centre-left and green votes at the moment: his critics against Sarkozy are more general and less personalized, while his critics against the left are more precise.
And in the end, he may well rally Sarkozy... Another big paradox...

Hollande has no real threat from the left: Mélenchon is unable to surge above 10 and Joly is already done. So, I'm not at all worried for him.
But, you're right, the media buzz is negative for him: that's stupid and undeserved, but it may have an influence...
It irritates me from a neutral viewpoint, but, of course, from a partisan viewpoint, I'd be so pleased if it could work and give Sarkozy a boost ;D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on November 25, 2011, 05:44:55 PM
Lipietz?
Wasn't Mamère were their candidate in 2002?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on November 25, 2011, 05:46:07 PM
Lipietz was originally the candidate until he shot himself by saying something about Corsican independence or something something.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on November 30, 2011, 06:51:08 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #30 - 28 November 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

Hollande   32,70
Sarkozy   26,29

Le Pen   17,49
Bayrou   6,81
Mélenchon   6,34
Joly   4,68
Villepin   1,65
Morin   0,67
Lepage   0,38
Dupont-Aignan   0,83
Boutin   0,37
Nihous   0,08
Arthaud   0,54
Poutou   0,44
Chevènement   0,74
   
Hollande   59,13
Sarkozy   40,87

Hollande may be a winner by default, but he is still a very big winner in the second round.

His decline in the first round isn't really worrying. Remember that when DSK exploded, Sarkozy was at 21, but Borloo was at 8 and Villepin at 4-5: Sarkozy is still 3 or 4 points under this total, whereas Villepin is vanishing and Morin isn't able to gain 1 point.

Le Pen is still very high and has a good potential to make a threatening comeback.
Joly seems to have stopped the bleeding.
Mélenchon is strong again but isn't able to surge really.
Bayrou is even, but we have to watch him: with Hollande ahving now problems with hollandais themselves, there may an opportunity for Bayrou.

Well, troubles among the left aren't really worrying fr Hollande as he can be seen as "strong" against the Greens. But now that his aide Lamdaoui hasn't the support of the party for a seat in the Assembly, he is angry... And some other hollandais are angry against aubrystes and the fact that Hollande isn't harsh enough against them....
THIS can be a bigger problem for Hollande than all the buzz around the Greens or Mélenchon's attacks.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 01, 2011, 08:13:20 AM
The trend is clear : Hollande keeps losing and Sarkozy keeps growing, but Hollande's levels remain far above normality. If things go well for him, he can manage to stay above 30% in the 1st round and 58% in the second. Otherwise, may God help us...

Since you bring out comparisons with the beginning of the tracker, and since this is the 30th edition, let's have a look at some numbers, comparing the results of exactly 6 months ago (30/5).

Hollande : 26,01% -> 32,7% (+6,69)
Hulot/Joly : 8,61% -> 4,68% (-3,93)
Mélenchon : 5,03% -> 6,34% (+1,31)
Chevènement : 0,49% -> 0,74 (+0,25)
Total Left : 40,14% -> 44,46% (+4,32)

Sarkozy : 21,03% -> 26,29% (+5,26)
Bayrou : 5,39% -> 6,81% (+1,42)
Villepin : 3,84% -> 1,65% (-2,19)
Borloo/Morin : 7,43% -> 0,67%(-6,76)
Dupont-Aignan : 0,73% -> 0,83% (+0,1)
Boutin : 0% -> 0,37% (+0,37)
Nihous : 0% -> 0,08% (+0,08)
Lepage : 0% -> 0,38% (+0,38)
Total right : 38,42% -> 37,08% (-1,34)

Le Pen : 19,29% -> 17,49% (-1,8)
Arthaud : 1,02% -> 0,54% (-0,48)
Poutou : 1,13% -> 0,44% (-0,69)
Total extremes : 21,44% -> 18,47% (-2,97)


The trend is pretty clear : polarization on both sides with the collapse of two strong alternative candidacies (Hulot and Borloo), a still strong advantage for the left almost entirely due to Hollande, and a net decline of extremist candidates.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on December 01, 2011, 09:05:33 AM

Hollande   32,70
Sarkozy   26,29

Le Pen   17,49
Bayrou   6,81
Mélenchon   6,34


Since your last edition :

Hollande -0.37 (-1.41%)
Sarkozy +0.92 (+2.81%)
Le Pen +0.08 (+0.46%)
Bayrou -0.03 (-0.44%)
Mélanchon -0.41 (-6.47%)
others -0.19 (-1.83%)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on December 01, 2011, 09:22:10 AM
Since 1 month :


Hollande :    -1,48   (-4,22%)
Sarkozy :    2,33   (+9,88%)
Le Pen :    1,19   (+7,26%)
Bayrou :    -0,68   (-9,12%)
Mélenchon :    -0,4   (-6,32%)
Others :    -0,96   (-8,62%)


Left* :    -1,73   (-3,67%)
Right* :    2,39   (+5,27%)

      
(*without bayrou)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 02, 2011, 07:31:20 AM
The trend is clear : Hollande keeps losing and Sarkozy keeps growing, but Hollande's levels remain far above normality. If things go well for him, he can manage to stay above 30% in the 1st round and 58% in the second. Otherwise, may God help us...

Since you bring out comparisons with the beginning of the tracker, and since this is the 30th edition, let's have a look at some numbers, comparing the results of exactly 6 months ago (30/5).

Hollande : 26,01% -> 32,7% (+6,69)
Hulot/Joly : 8,61% -> 4,68% (-3,93)
Mélenchon : 5,03% -> 6,34% (+1,31)
Chevènement : 0,49% -> 0,74 (+0,25)
Total Left : 40,14% -> 44,46% (+4,32)

Sarkozy : 21,03% -> 26,29% (+5,26)
Bayrou : 5,39% -> 6,81% (+1,42)
Villepin : 3,84% -> 1,65% (-2,19)
Borloo/Morin : 7,43% -> 0,67%(-6,76)
Dupont-Aignan : 0,73% -> 0,83% (+0,1)
Boutin : 0% -> 0,37% (+0,37)
Nihous : 0% -> 0,08% (+0,08)
Lepage : 0% -> 0,38% (+0,38)
Total right : 38,42% -> 37,08% (-1,34)

Le Pen : 19,29% -> 17,49% (-1,8)
Arthaud : 1,02% -> 0,54% (-0,48)
Poutou : 1,13% -> 0,44% (-0,69)
Total extremes : 21,44% -> 18,47% (-2,97)


The trend is pretty clear : polarization on both sides with the collapse of two strong alternative candidacies (Hulot and Borloo), a still strong advantage for the left almost entirely due to Hollande, and a net decline of extremist candidates.

I would put Bayrou in a category of his own or in a centre category with Lepage.

Sarkozy hasn't made it for the entire decline in the (Borloo)Morin and Villepin candidacies. So, Hollande has still some margin to waste. But he must be careful now.
The last IFOP poll is less good for him (see my blog : I'll publish it tonight): 29.5 and 56.
Bayrou, as I anticipated it, seems on the rise (and Mélenchon too) and Le Pen remains strong among "the people".


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 02, 2011, 07:51:19 AM
I put Bayrou and Lepage in the "right" category because they are more likely to bite on traditionally right-wing electorate and potential Sarkozy voters. I doubt Bayrou is gathering support from all over the spectrum as he did in 2007. But as that awful poll suggests, that might change. :(

Self-fulfilling prophecy is on the march and nothing, except a new mediatic narrative, can stop it. Well, this and the formidable intelligence of Joly and Mélenchon.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on December 02, 2011, 09:50:45 AM
IFOP poll, 30 nov.


HOLLANDE 29.5 (-3)
SARKOZY 26 (=)
LE PEN 19.5 (+0.5)
BAYROU 8.5 (+2.5)
MELENCHON 7.5 (+0.5)
others 9 (-0.5)


http://www.atlantico.fr/decryptage/sondage-ifop-presidentielle-2012-hollande-sarkozy-ecart-resserre-marine-pen-jean-luc-melenchon-francois-bayrou-jerome


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on December 02, 2011, 10:02:10 AM
IFOP LEFT & RIGHT (20 oct., 4 nov., 16 nov., 30 nov.)


LEFT* :

20 oct. : 46.5
4 nov. : 43.5
16 nov. : 44.5
30 nov. : 41.5



RIGHT* :

20 oct. : 47
4 nov. : 49.5
16 nov. : 49.5
30 nov. : 50



(yark yark, I had said that left always goes to 40 % in prez elections ;D )





*without bayrou


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on December 02, 2011, 11:59:40 AM
Actually I don't think a leftwing candidate for the presidency in France has ever has less than 46-47% of the vote in the second round and that would have been Jospin in 1995.

France at the presidential level in that barring a fluke like LePen being in the second round in 2002 - each side has a floor of about 45% - even though most polls give Hollande a 12-16% lead in the end if he wins by 7 or 8% it will be a landslide by French standards. 


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on December 02, 2011, 05:09:08 PM
i speaked about the first round


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 05, 2011, 06:05:36 AM
How many polls do we have this week ? Has there been others apart from the IFOP one ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 05, 2011, 04:33:42 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #31 - 5 December 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

Hollande   31,98
Sarkozy   26,41

Le Pen   17,78
Bayrou   7,01
Mélenchon   6,55
Joly   4,60
Villepin   1,62
Morin   0,73
Lepage   0,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,88
Boutin   0,39
Nihous   0,07
Arthaud   0,45
Poutou   0,39
Chevènement   0,76
   
Hollande   58,49
Sarkozy   41,51

Only one new poll this week. A rather bad one for Hollande, but, on the other hand, popularity is again down for Sarkozy and Fillon.

The only notable feat is that Bayrou is at 7 again.
Le Pen is very resilient and really strong.
Villepin is almost out.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on December 05, 2011, 05:43:46 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #31 - 5 December 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


FYI: In English we don't say "ponderated" or "ponderation" - we say "weighted" and "weighting"


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 05, 2011, 06:44:51 PM
Fab, you're gonna love these graphs. :P

1st Round :

()

2nd Round :

()


Anyways, the good thing is that polls start to become regular (we tend to have 1-2 polls per week rather than 4 one week and nothing the next one), and as a result, the lines are smoother. No your tracker's style becomes effective. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 06, 2011, 02:32:54 AM
Hold on... there is another IPSOS poll, made on 2nd and 3rd of December, but published only this morning... sigh...
I'll update the tracker tonight. Fortunately, it's very, very close to the tracker !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 06, 2011, 05:34:42 AM
Hold on... there is another IPSOS poll, made on 2nd and 3rd of December, but published only this morning... sigh...
I'll update the tracker tonight. Fortunately, it's very, very close to the tracker !

What are the numbers ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 06, 2011, 03:53:39 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #31 - 5 December 2011
   
            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      



BEWARE ! UPDATED WITH IPSOS AND BVA POLLS !      

Hollande   32,26
Sarkozy   26,13

Le Pen   17,62
Bayrou   7,20
Mélenchon   6,70
Joly   4,61
Villepin   1,60
Morin   0,63
Lepage   0,46
Dupont-Aignan   0,80
Boutin   0,40
Nihous   0,05
Arthaud   0,47
Poutou   0,31
Chevènement   0,75
   
Hollande 58,73
Sarkozy   41,27

I'm forced to include now the latest polls, so that recent polls aren't too undervalued.
I don't intend to change the way I decrease the weight of old polls: I'll do it from the 1st of January. I know French medias too well: the first weeks of December seem wonderful, but the last 2 weeks will see no poll at all. But, afterwards, it'll be OK and I'll fasten the rhythm in January, a lil' more in February, even more in March, a lot more in the first 2 weeks of April and the 3rd week of April will be based only on the last 2 weeks.

BTW, Bayrou seems to be stronger and stronger. Mélenchon too. And Sarkozy is stalled again.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 08, 2011, 12:58:47 PM
Fabien, I'm kind of worried by the precedent you are setting here. Shouldn't the rule be that the polls are integrated in the tracker in the first monday following their publishing ? Using the polling date rather than the publishing date will mean the possibility for retro-active editing of the tracker (like you just did). It really makes things dangerously confusing.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 08, 2011, 04:01:03 PM
Fabien, I'm kind of worried by the precedent you are setting here. Shouldn't the rule be that the polls are integrated in the tracker in the first monday following their publishing ? Using the polling date rather than the publishing date will mean the possibility for retro-active editing of the tracker (like you just did). It really makes things dangerously confusing.

Maybe, I must think about it.
More and more, polls will be published sooner after the real polling date. And when I'll start to reduce the number of polls taken into account, the tracker would be too wrong.
On the other hand, you're right that it would mean that the tracker may be updated too often.

Let me think a bit (I've just had a very, very bad news in my job: some chambres régionales des comptes are going to be erased in the coming months...; and so I'm not able to think properly for the moment).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 08, 2011, 05:24:59 PM
Fabien, I'm kind of worried by the precedent you are setting here. Shouldn't the rule be that the polls are integrated in the tracker in the first monday following their publishing ? Using the polling date rather than the publishing date will mean the possibility for retro-active editing of the tracker (like you just did). It really makes things dangerously confusing.

Maybe, I must think about it.
More and more, polls will be published sooner after the real polling date. And when I'll start to reduce the number of polls taken into account, the tracker would be too wrong.
On the other hand, you're right that it would mean that the tracker may be updated too often.

Pardon my psycho-rigidity, but to me it's really important that the method we have for accounting polls is uniform and does not variate depending on the tracker's conveniences. ;)


Quote
Let me think a bit (I've just had a very, very bad news in my job: some chambres régionales des comptes are going to be erased in the coming months...; and so I'm not able to think properly for the moment).

I'm sorry to hear that and I really hope it won't affect you. :'( These are really tough times, it seems...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on December 09, 2011, 10:01:51 AM
IMO the tracker should be based not on the publishing dates but on the field dates, the only ones which make sense if you're tracking voting intentions. Maybe you can use all the polls whose fields are executed from Monday to Monday (or any other seven days round of course), and publish the tracker only two or three days after, in order to wait for the publication of all of them?

Anyway, I wish you good luck with your work. You shall overcome! ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on December 09, 2011, 02:31:34 PM
I wish you good luck with your work. You shall overcome! ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 11, 2011, 06:19:48 AM
For tomorrow's tracker, I strongly recommend you to count the newest 2 polls at their 100% value, since they have been published after previous Monday.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on December 11, 2011, 01:37:15 PM
The awfulness of the candidates here is really something: some indecisive wimp who is boring and predictable, a useless incumbent who associates with Vichyists, a closeted fascist, an egomaniac whose platform is that everybody sucks, a wannabe Marchais who puts on a pathetically fake scene, a useless end-is-nigh douche who sabotaged a party, an incompetent wannabe running for the sake of a personal vendetta, a useless boring hack who takes himself way too seriously, a failed wannabe actor who doesn't understand that nobody wants him to play the General's role and two boring nutjob Trots.

I wonder who I'll vote for. I'll probably make Excel generate a random number or roll a dice.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 11, 2011, 02:46:32 PM
The awfulness of the candidates here is really something: some indecisive wimp who is boring and predictable, a useless incumbent who associates with Vichyists, a closeted fascist, an egomaniac whose platform is that everybody sucks, a wannabe Marchais who puts on a pathetically fake scene, a useless end-is-nigh douche who sabotaged a party, an incompetent wannabe running for the sake of a personal vendetta, a useless boring hack who takes himself way too seriously, a failed wannabe actor who doesn't understand that nobody wants him to play the General's role and two boring nutjob Trots.

I wonder who I'll vote for. I'll probably make Excel generate a random number or roll a dice.

It's hard to give you wrong. But there are clear "lesser evil" options.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 11, 2011, 04:11:52 PM
For tomorrow's tracker, I strongly recommend you to count the newest 2 polls at their 100% value, since they have been published after previous Monday.

Do not take into account my "update" for last week. And for tomorrow, I'll do as usual.
And I'll include the last LH2 poll, which is probably another crap one, but in which Bayrou is up and Le Pen (too much) down) ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 14, 2011, 05:13:25 AM
Again, I'm awfully busy this week.
I'll try to publish the tracker tonight...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 14, 2011, 05:27:37 AM
Again, I'm awfully busy this week.
I'll try to publish the tracker tonight...

Don't worry. Do what you have to do before all. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 15, 2011, 07:28:49 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #33 - 12 December 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

Hollande   31,91
Sarkozy   26,21

Le Pen   17,09
Bayrou   7,98
Mélenchon   6,76
Joly   4,59
Villepin   1,50
Morin   0,69
Lepage   0,42
Dupont-Aignan   0,85
Boutin   0,49
Nihous   0,04
Arthaud   0,46
Poutou   0,26
Chevènement   0,77
   
Hollande   58,34
Sarkozy   41,66

Hollande is still very strong.
Bayrou is surging, as anticipated, and he will surge even more next week, with the new CSA poll.
While he may have been, only 3 weeks ago, a threat for Hollande, he is now clearly a danger for... Sarkozy. When France lose its AAA rating, Sarkozy will probably lose voters to Bayrou, while still being under Le Pen's threat.

I've written about Sarkozy being crushed between Le Pen and a moderate socialist (first DSK, then Hollande), but he may well be crushed only between Le Pen and Bayrou...
This campaign will be excruciating for him...

And even if he can gain some ground in the 2nd round, it's only a transition: Hollande is much too high in polls and.... Bayrou may well threaten him too, either directly, or by weakening him enough to allow Le Pen to make it to the second round...

Mélenchon is in relative good shape but he doesn't manage to reach 10%, even 8%.
The other candidates are low or very low.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 15, 2011, 09:01:28 AM
There is another CSA poll today, with Bayrou at 11 (after 13 in the latest LH2).
See my blog.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 15, 2011, 09:51:34 AM
Must we put up with a surge of militant tepidity at every Presidential election from 2007 onwards?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 15, 2011, 10:50:25 AM
Bayrou isn't exactly the embodiment of tepidity, I think.

Let me be clear: deep inside, he has a weak personality and he is a coward and he doesn't stand for anything really consistent.

But the support he is receiving isn't about "moderation", "consensus", "centre", in the scandinavian meaning of these words, whatever the results of the CSA poll on French people wanting a "national union" government.
This isn't the French tradition at all (see my post in the Essays thread on homely's work on France since 1750).

Bayrou isn't Adolfo Suarez, Romano Prodi, Frederik Reinfeldt or Jean Chrétien (:P).

Bayrou is just another little proud politician trying to be the "Saviour", like Royal, Sarkozy, Villepin, Le Pen, Villiers, Mélenchon were or are (DSK was also a "Saviour", but not voluntarily...).
He has benefited from the big mistake of the French right: creating a "parti unique", crushing the centre-right.

His only interest is in the complexity of his electorate:
ecologists disappointed with ideological Joly,
real centrists (heirs of the MRP),
soft rightists (old and "kind" people),
über-realistic social-democrats who are afraid of Hamon-Emmanuelli-Montebourg-Aubry inside the PS,
neo-poujadists who were behind Le Pen once but who are not especially racists,
young people who think they can re-create politics and ideas and the world and who think every idea of the past is dead (well, in a way, some Pirate spirit here... i.e. selfish people who think they are really rebellious and they are freedom fighters just because they want to consume everything, everywhere, whenever they want and for free).

He is more the candidate of those who are politically "lost" or orphans (he is even gaining ground among workers in the CSA poll !!!) and of those who are (or think they are) "idealists".
Nowadays, with a dull Hollande, a worked-up Sarkozy and radical Le Pen and Mélenchon, he is still, like in 2007, an easy outlet, a not-so-bad receptacle, for the disappointed voters.

Unfortunately, he is the only way to have fun and surprises during this election, which is, as predited, a boring one for the moment (as Hollande is a shoo-in, for the moment, despite all his own problems).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 15, 2011, 10:56:18 AM
That's why I added 'militant'. He aggressively favours warm ice cream.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 15, 2011, 01:09:54 PM
There is another CSA poll today, with Bayrou at 11 (after 13 in the latest LH2).
See my blog.

I assume you didn't include it in the tracker, correct ? :)

I really don't get this Bayrou trend now. His new "buy French" campaign is so pathetic and overdone...

Anyways, it's a good surprise to see Hollande isn't crumbling. Considering how much of a fail he was in all these days...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on December 15, 2011, 01:27:32 PM
Ugh, Bayrou. Seriously? How dumb can people get?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 15, 2011, 01:30:18 PM

Especially now that he's turning into some protectionist nutjob. I thought the guy couldn't get anymore pathetic, but thank you Bayrou for definitely proving us you don't believe in anything.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on December 15, 2011, 01:34:14 PM

Especially now that he's turning into some protectionist nutjob. I thought the guy couldn't get anymore pathetic, but thank you Bayrou for definitely proving us you don't believe in anything.

I still think the most amusing is Villepin's leftie turn into some type of ultra-social left-Gaullist ranting about evil capitalism and about how he can't sleep in a country which is so unequal.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 15, 2011, 01:42:14 PM

Especially now that he's turning into some protectionist nutjob. I thought the guy couldn't get anymore pathetic, but thank you Bayrou for definitely proving us you don't believe in anything.

I still think the most amusing is Villepin's leftie turn into some type of ultra-social left-Gaullist ranting about evil capitalism and about how he can't sleep in a country which is so unequal.

Well, at least voters aren't buying in his sh*t...

The sad thing is that I was supporting him back in 2007 (well, OK, I was young and naive...). Thinking back to that time, I'm just realizing how crappy the field was at that time : I couldn't see myself voting for any of the candidates who got more than 2%... :( 2012 is not a huge improvement of course, but there are a few acceptable candidates who poll over 2% (say, Hollande and Joly ?).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 15, 2011, 05:57:36 PM
There is another CSA poll today, with Bayrou at 11 (after 13 in the latest LH2).
See my blog.

I assume you didn't include it in the tracker, correct ? :)

I really don't get this Bayrou trend now. His new "buy French" campaign is so pathetic and overdone...

Anyways, it's a good surprise to see Hollande isn't crumbling. Considering how much of a fail he was in all these days...

No, CSA isn't included: I'm abiding by the traditional rules, don't worry ;).

There are 2 other Harris and IFOP polls tonight.
Bayrou again at 11, Le Pen at 19 and 20.
Hollande and Sarkozy down... (28 and 27.5 / 25 and 24)
And 57/43 and 56/44 in the second round.

And Villepin at 3 and 3.5 again >:( Kill French people, this stupid people !!!

I'll publish them tomorrow on my blog and will announce a change in the way I weigh the polls ;).
The next tracker, on Monday the 19th (I won't be late, because it's holidays from tomorrow ;D), will be very interesting.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 16, 2011, 03:59:07 AM
So Hollande is now officially below 30% ? It had to happen, but I hoped it would take a bit longer...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on December 16, 2011, 05:05:49 AM
2 questions


1-what represent flags under your pseudos?

2-where is post in the Essays thread on homely's work on France since 1750 ?




this 2012 campain will be very exciting, with a 5-players game


will hollande crush between mélanchon and bayrou?
will sarko cruch between bayrou and marine ?
will mélanchon or marine qualified for the final ?


the only problem for bayrou is the first round, becaue in case of qualification for the final, he'll win in ever configuration (even if he'll have difficulties on the legislative election)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on December 16, 2011, 05:26:27 AM
profile of the voter-type on IFOP last poll


Mélanchonist is a man, 25-35 years old, worker, artisan or small shopkeeper, belong to public employment, living in Paris's conurbation

Hollandist is a woman, 18-24 years old, employee, belong to public employment, living in Paris or paris's conurbation

Bayrouist is a man, 25-34 years old, high-white collar, belong to private sector, living in rural area

Sarkozist is a woman, 65+ years old, pensioner, had worked in private sector, living in paris or paris's conurbation

Marinist is a woman, 35-49 years old, worker, belong to independant sector, living in rural area


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 16, 2011, 05:39:18 AM
1-what represent flags under your pseudos?

The country you live in (or whatever country you choose, which can have nothing to do with where you live, in some cases).


Quote
2-where is post in the Essays thread on homely's work on France since 1750 ?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145288.0


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on December 16, 2011, 05:57:34 AM
continuing in the same IFOP poll, voting intentions (minim. 10%) by categorie


men

1-Hollande 29%
2-Sarkozy 25%
3-Le Pen 18%
4-Mélanchon 10%

women

1-Hollande 30%
2-Sarkozy 27%
3-Le Pen 21%

18-24 yo

1-Hollande 48%
2-Sarkozy 25%
3-Le Pen 11%


25-34 yo

1-Hollande 25%
2-Le Pen 21%
3-Sarkozy 19%
4-Bayrou 11%
5-Mélanchon 10%


less 35yo

1-Hollande 34%
2-Sarkozy 21%
3-Le Pen 17%
4-Bayrou 10%

more 35 yo

1-Hollande 28%
2-Sarkozy 27%
3-Le Pen 20%


35-49 yo

1-Le Pen 32%
2-Hollande 24%
3-Sarkozy 18%


50-64 yo

1-Hollande 29%
2-Sarkozy 27%
3-Le Pen 19%


65+ yo

1-Sarkozy 37%
2-Hollande 30%

artisans/small shopkeeper

1-Hollande 25%
2-Le Pen 23%
3-Sarkozy 18%
4-Mélanchon 12%


white collar

1-Sarkozy 27%
2-Hollande 26%
3-Bayrou 15%
4-Le Pen 11%



intermediate job

1-Hollande 27%
2-Le Pen 26%
3-Sarkozy 21%
4-Bayrou 10%
5-Mélanchon 10%



employees

1-Hollande 42%
2-Le Pen 24%
3-Sarkozy 14%




blue collar

1-Le Pen 37%
2-Hollande 17%
3-Sarkozy 17%
4-Mélanchon 12%


pensioners

1-Sarkozy 38%
2-Hollande 29%
3-Bayrou 10%


unemployed/not active

1-Hollande 38%
2-Sarkozy 21%
3-Le Pen 19%


salaried on private sector

1-Hollande 27%
2-Le Pen 26%
3-Sarkozy 21%
4-Bayrou 10%


salaried on public sector

1-Hollande 33%
2-Le Pen 27%
3-Mélanchon 15%
4-Sarkozy 11%


employer/independant

1-Le Pen 29%
2-Sarkozy 21%
3-Hollande 20%




rural areas

1-Hollande 29%
2-Sarkozy 27%
3-Le Pen 25%



no-parisian urban areas

1-Hollande 29%
2-Sarkozy 25%
3-Le Pen 20%


parisian urban area

1-Hollande 34%
2-Sarkozy 28%
3-Mélanchon 13%
4-Le Pen 11%





Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 17, 2011, 08:52:54 AM
Anyways... 2nd round-wise, we're back to the pre-primary situation (58.34 for Hollande, 58.33 at the time). Which is pretty interesting because the 1st round situation wasn't the same at all :
- Hollande is 1.4 points stronger.
- Sarkozy has gained almost 4 points.
- Le Pen has picked 0.8.
- Bayrou had a 1.4 points surge.
- Mélenchon is slightly down, by a bit more than 0.1.
- Joly lost 1 point.
- Morin has lost 5.6 points of former Borloo voters.
- Villepin lost 1.9 points.
- Other candidates decreased by 1.2 points.

Anyways, Hollande's bleeding is almost stopped, and Sarko and Le Pen are down for the first time since a while. Of course, next Monday Hollande will lose significantly again...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 17, 2011, 07:09:38 PM
Yep, see OW, IFOP  and Harris on my blog... not very good for Hollande (though it's not really better for Sarkozy).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 18, 2011, 05:58:28 AM
Yep, see OW, IFOP  and Harris on my blog... not very good for Hollande (though it's not really better for Sarkozy).

Yeah, awful numbers. I really fail to understand how the PS managed to screw up things that bad...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 18, 2011, 08:50:35 AM
Seeing LePen so high almost makes me ill. I certainly hope that her support will not materialize on election day.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 18, 2011, 09:53:43 AM
Seeing LePen so high almost makes me ill. I certainly hope that her support will not materialize on election day.

Unfortunately, she's set to grow even more in the next months... The question now is whether she will break the 20% line on election day.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Harry Hayfield on December 18, 2011, 01:20:52 PM
Could I ask how this proposed Europe Nord constituency would be elected?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 18, 2011, 01:25:59 PM
Could I ask how this proposed Europe Nord constituency would be elected?

2-round FPP. The candidates who get more than 12.5% of registered voters in the first round are qualified for the second round, then whoever gets more votes wins.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on December 18, 2011, 02:41:38 PM
Because the legislative elections are more interesting, here's a primer:

The PS and EELV (and PRG, nobody cares) have signed a sh**tstorm deal which everybody hates. In electoral terms, EELV can hope to win 20 or so seats overall on a good night for the left. The PRG will get its seats and might gain a few others.

Duflot will run in Paris-6, which the PS leadership abandoned to her but the incumbent PS deputy Danièle Hoffman-Rispal threw a hissy fit and is running as a dissident against Duflot, with the quasi-open endorsement of Delanoë-Hidalgo who have been very much against the deal because it gives Duflot a base for her 2014 mayoral candidacy against Hidalgo.

Yves Cochet is now an MEP (for one of those 2 extra seats) so Paris-10, which includes most of his old constituency, is reserved to the Greenies and they've chosen the rather leftie Denis Baupin against the even more crazy leftie Yves Contassot but incumbent PS deputy Serge Blisko might throw a hissy fit as well.

Lots of similar hissy fits in a lot of the constituencies reserved for EELV, where local PS members are opposing the deal.

Ségogo wants to be President of the National Assembly, but she needs a constituency, but can't afford to take her old constituency until 2007 because it would piss off Delphine Batho, her successor, and seemingly the last person who thinks Ségogo is useful for something. So instead she's running in La Rochelle, where it seems they convinced the Segolist incumbent to step down. But a lot of local members aren't keen on her candidacy already... They also considered dumping her in North Africa.

Jack Lang decided to be an ass and refused to run in the normal primary-ish convention for members in his Pas-de-Calais seat, so the PS is likely deciding to drop him somewhere in the Somme. Hamon is running in Yvelines-11 (Trappes)

A sh**tload of cabinet ministers are running, most for reelection. Juppé is getting a rematch in Gironde-2 with Delaunay. The collabo-in-chief Claude Guéant is undecided but would run in Yvelines-3 if he did. Meanwhile, his son is running in Morbihan (Ploermel).

The ultimate sh**tfest is Paris-2, where the ultimate battle is opposing Rachida Dati and François Fillon. Both want to be mayor of Paris in 2014, and both are pretty damn ambitious. Dati is backed Jean-François Copé, who hates Fillon likely because he's running for President in 2017. To add to the craziness, Alain Lambert, the president of the CG of the Orne and master of carpetbagging, is also running after admitting that he in fact lives in Paris. The constituency, which takes in most of the 5, 6 and 7 arrondissements, is safely blue.

The abroad seats are also shaping up interestingly. In Asia-Oceania, very right-wing, Thierry Mariani has been carpetbagged there and is now proceeding to use taxpayer money to fund his "official" trips to China and the like. Marie-Anne Montchamp, whose constituency was eliminated, is running the Benelux against Dodo Paillé, whose new job is to lose elections everywhere.

Meanwhile, in my very own constituency, I have the great luck of having as my UMP candidate... Frédéric Lefebvre! How lucky! He's also facing Julien Balkany, the half-brother of the big boss of the Levallois mafia. On a side note, Harpo is being a retard (again) and Canada is throwing a hissy fit saying that they oppose Canada being included in the constituency of a foreign state ::)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 20, 2011, 10:42:17 AM
(I won't be late, because it's holidays from tomorrow ;D),

Liar ! :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 20, 2011, 01:45:46 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #34 - 19 December 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses a ponderation of 20% each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

Hollande   30,36
Sarkozy   25,58
Le Pen   17,4
Bayrou   9,77
Mélenchon   6,56
Joly   4,17
Villepin   2,11
Morin   0,61
Lepage   0,51
Dupont-Aignan   0,86
Boutin   0,53
Nihous   0,02
Arthaud   0,49
Poutou   0,28
Chevènement   0,75
   
Hollande   57,58
Sarkozy   42,42

(my dishwasher is kaputt: does this count as an excuse for being late ? ;D)

I've slightly changed the way I weigh polls... because the campaign is fastening and more polls are published.

Bayrou up, up, up...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 20, 2011, 02:00:44 PM
Wow, I can see the effects of your change in weighting ! :P Did you apply it retroactively ? Or, to put it clearly, do you weigh polls this way ?
- This week : 100%
- Last week 80%
- Week before 65%
- Week before 50%
- Etc...

Or that way ?
- This week : 100%
- Last week 80%
- Week before 60%
- Week before 40%

Personally, I prefer the first way because it makes the change more gradual and avoids big artificial shifts.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 20, 2011, 04:06:01 PM
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 but it's not so artificial because we lost anyway 4 polls at once.
So the changes are mainly the fact of Bayrou really rising, not of my new weighting ;) §

And there is another OpinionWay poll tonight where he is at 14... (I'll publish it tomorrow on my blog).
And Hollande is at 27 in this poll...
Don't worry, I think Sarkozy is more at risk because of Bayrou, than Hollande.
But it's beginning to be interesting ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 20, 2011, 04:13:55 PM
Still, losing nearly 10 points lost in 2 month qualifies as "epic fail".


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on December 20, 2011, 11:40:42 PM
Ok seriously why does the PS manage to keep shooting themselves in the foot? First it was Jospin, then Royal, then DSK, now Hollande has been falling. Can they ever re-win the Presidency? I'm not saying that Hollande isn't still the favorite, but he clearly has fallen greatly.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 21, 2011, 09:09:27 AM
Ok seriously why does the PS manage to keep shooting themselves in the foot? First it was Jospin, then Royal, then DSK, now Hollande has been falling. Can they ever re-win the Presidency? I'm not saying that Hollande isn't still the favorite, but he clearly has fallen greatly.

I honestly feel lost. What I dreaded most was the primary, and I was sure that if the primary had gone well, everything would have gone fine after that. I really don't understand how they managed to screw things that bad in the last 2 months...

Hollande now is at its pre-primary level, except that Sarko, Le Pen and Bayrou are all higher. Things might get bad very soon...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on December 21, 2011, 06:35:40 PM
A win's a win even if it's by 1 vote. Sarko only wins if Hollande doesn't finish in the top 2. No French president's ever been elected by an astonishing margin, all that.

How's Sarko's response to the conference the other week and David Cameron's 'flounce bounce' (the veto) been received over there?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Beet on December 22, 2011, 11:17:07 AM
Because the left wing parties are too hollowed out spiritually to oppose neo-liberalism, you get situations like this.

blue collar

1-Le Pen 37%
2-Hollande 17%
3-Sarkozy 17%
4-Mélanchon 12%


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 22, 2011, 11:54:46 AM
A win's a win even if it's by 1 vote. Sarko only wins if Hollande doesn't finish in the top 2. No French president's ever been elected by an astonishing margin, all that.

How's Sarko's response to the conference the other week and David Cameron's 'flounce bounce' (the veto) been received over there?

This hasn't been much commented actually. The big news today are the strike of airport security agents (and the government's inane decision to mobilise cops to replace them) and a bill banning the negation of Armenian genocide which has just passed.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 26, 2011, 06:07:48 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #34 - 26 December 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses a ponderation of 20% each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... ;)      


      

Hollande   29,60
Sarkozy   25,13
Le Pen   17,22
Bayrou   10,87
Mélenchon   6,69
Joly   4,08
Villepin   2,20
Morin   0,65
Lepage   0,53
Dupont-Aignan   0,88
Boutin   0,62
Nihous   0,00
Arthaud   0,48
Poutou   0,38
Chevènement   0,67
   
Hollande   57,36
Sarkozy   42,64

Hollande is back to pre-primary levels.
Bayrou is really surging, now above 10%.
It's not very bright for Sarkozy but he is more or less steady.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 27, 2011, 06:16:02 AM
Fab, I strongly encourage you to adopte a more moderate position regarding ponderation. I've had a look at the program you present on your blog, and I'm a bit worried you're getting too fast in the way you want to calculate the tracker after January. Personally, I'd wait for mid-February to switch to 25%, for April to switch to, say 33% and wouldn't go as far as you go by counting only the week's polls in the very end. I know things can move faster in the very last week, but overestimating the predictive power of final polls might be a mistake. Don't get me wrong, all your ideas are really great and I perfectly understand your reasoning. I hope you'll just take my objections into account. :)

Also, I've counted and this tracker is actually the 34th. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on December 27, 2011, 08:02:15 PM
IMOO a good rating would be :


12 months ago : 5%
11 months ago : 10%
10 months ago : 15%
9 months ago : 20%
8 months ago : 25%
7 months ago : 30%
6 months ago : 40%
5 months ago : 50%
4 months ago : 60%
3 months ago : 70%
2 months ago : 80%
1 months ago : 90%
current month : 100%


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 27, 2011, 08:17:24 PM
Ponderation isn't an English word.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 28, 2011, 05:01:15 AM

Yeah, weighting. Sorry. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on December 30, 2011, 06:20:18 PM
Fab, I strongly encourage you to adopte a more moderate position regarding ponderation. I've had a look at the program you present on your blog, and I'm a bit worried you're getting too fast in the way you want to calculate the tracker after January. Personally, I'd wait for mid-February to switch to 25%, for April to switch to, say 33% and wouldn't go as far as you go by counting only the week's polls in the very end. I know things can move faster in the very last week, but overestimating the predictive power of final polls might be a mistake. Don't get me wrong, all your ideas are really great and I perfectly understand your reasoning. I hope you'll just take my objections into account. :)

Also, I've counted and this tracker is actually the 34th. ;)

I don't know where I've made a mistake in the number of trackers :P
Will try not to forget to change it on Monday.

As for weighing the polls, I'm happy to have some feedback from you.
Well, that's only my current plan. I'll see how many polls we have each week from January. Maybe I'll make this a bit slower.
In fact, I've set this based on the 2007 campaign, which is very fresh in my memory.
This time, Sarkozy will try to have a slower flow... err... wait, are we sure ? ;D
And Hollande, theoretically far better organized than Royal, will have his own agenda.
And Marine is far more professionnal than Big Daddy.
And Bayrou will be more active because he really believes in himself this time (and it's the last occasion for him...).
So, I think the pace will be quicker than we expect for the moment.
Hence my scheme. But I'll change it if necessary.

Just remember that you repeated me that I should change the pace during the last summer and through the autumn... ;) I was rather right not to change too fast then. Now, it's the contrary: maybe you'll be right.

Anyway, this campaign may well be more suspenseful than anticipated, after all :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 31, 2011, 06:53:57 AM
Fab, I strongly encourage you to adopte a more moderate position regarding ponderation. I've had a look at the program you present on your blog, and I'm a bit worried you're getting too fast in the way you want to calculate the tracker after January. Personally, I'd wait for mid-February to switch to 25%, for April to switch to, say 33% and wouldn't go as far as you go by counting only the week's polls in the very end. I know things can move faster in the very last week, but overestimating the predictive power of final polls might be a mistake. Don't get me wrong, all your ideas are really great and I perfectly understand your reasoning. I hope you'll just take my objections into account. :)

Also, I've counted and this tracker is actually the 34th. ;)

I don't know where I've made a mistake in the number of trackers :P
Will try not to forget to change it on Monday.

As for weighing the polls, I'm happy to have some feedback from you.
Well, that's only my current plan. I'll see how many polls we have each week from January. Maybe I'll make this a bit slower.
In fact, I've set this based on the 2007 campaign, which is very fresh in my memory.
This time, Sarkozy will try to have a slower flow... err... wait, are we sure ? ;D
And Hollande, theoretically far better organized than Royal, will have his own agenda.
And Marine is far more professionnal than Big Daddy.
And Bayrou will be more active because he really believes in himself this time (and it's the last occasion for him...).
So, I think the pace will be quicker than we expect for the moment.
Hence my scheme. But I'll change it if necessary.

Just remember that you repeated me that I should change the pace during the last summer and through the autumn... ;) I was rather right not to change too fast then. Now, it's the contrary: maybe you'll be right.

Anyway, this campaign may well be more suspenseful than anticipated, after all :)

You were right back in October, yes. The current  weighting system is also correct IMO. Now, I know a lot more polls will come after January, but I still think some caution would be useful. So, let's wait and see how many polls we have at that time.

As for the campaign, I always knew it would be closer than anticipated. There were a few weeks, right after the primary, when I came to think that the race was over, but Hollande, Mélenchon and Joly proved once again that the left won't stop shooting itself in the foot. This likely won't be enough for Sarko to win, but enought to worry left-wingers like me... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 02, 2012, 06:57:32 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #35 - 2 January 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 20% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            



      

Hollande   29,31
Sarkozy   24,95
Le Pen   17,21
Bayrou   11,36
Mélenchon   6,59
Joly   3,98
Villepin   2,35
Morin   0,65
Lepage   0,54
Dupont-Aignan   0,89
Boutin   0,64
Nihous   0,00
Arthaud   0,47
Poutou   0,39
Chevènement   0,67
   
Hollande   57,17
Sarkozy   42,83

No new poll during this holiday week. So Bayrou is the only winner.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 03, 2012, 10:30:33 AM
Here come the graphs. :)

()

()


It's rather unfortunate that the polls stopped right after you decided to switch your weighting system... :P But still, the lines remain smooth enough, for now.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 06, 2012, 03:43:58 AM
We are Friday and still no new poll :(
I was convinced they'd go back to "work" as soon as the 2nd of January...
They seemed hungry enough to be interested in this "good school-boy" start from Hollande (he is really lucky to have Sarkozy against him...); so, why can't they "create" the event by polling NOW ?

French medias are really big, big sh*** >:(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on January 06, 2012, 04:53:28 AM
We are Friday and still no new poll :(
I was convinced they'd go back to "work" as soon as the 2nd of January...
They seemed hungry enough to be interested in this "good school-boy" start from Hollande (he is really lucky to have Sarkozy against him...); so, why can't they "create" the event by polling NOW ?

French medias are really big, big sh*** >:(

Don't worry Fab, you will have a bunch of new polls next week, at least IFOP, BVA, CSA, OpinionWay, and maybe one of the two best IMO, IPSOS and TNS Sofres.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 06, 2012, 08:46:36 AM
Thanks for the info.

But this is what I've said: they all poll at the same time and then they are all unemployed at the same time...
My next Monday tracker will again take into account absolutely no new poll :(

Sure, it's the las time it occurs, I think. But still...
Hope YouGov will land in France soon :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Sam Spade on January 09, 2012, 09:25:40 AM
New IFOP poll out - Full numbers for every candidate in 1st round are not given in the article.

At any rate: 1st round - Hollande 28, Sarkozy 26
2nd round - Hollande 54, Sarkozy 46

http://www.ntn24.com/news/news/sarkozy-gains-ground-socialist-9250


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 09, 2012, 09:36:55 AM
God, this is disgusting.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on January 09, 2012, 12:34:59 PM
New IFOP poll out - Full numbers for every candidate in 1st round are not given in the article.

At any rate: 1st round - Hollande 28, Sarkozy 26
2nd round - Hollande 54, Sarkozy 46

http://www.ntn24.com/news/news/sarkozy-gains-ground-socialist-9250




1-HOLLANDE 28% (+0.5)
2-SARKOZY 26% (+2)
3-LE PEN 19% (-1)
4-BAYROU 12% (+1)
5-MELENCHON 6% (-0.5)
6-JOLY 3% (-2)
7-"sonstige" 5.5%


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 09, 2012, 03:58:27 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #36 - 9 January 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 20% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            



      

Hollande   28,49
Sarkozy   25,23
Le Pen   17,8
Bayrou   11,94
Mélenchon   6,33
Joly   3,59
Villepin   2,51
Morin   0,78
Lepage   0,53
Dupont-Aignan   0,78
Boutin   0,61
Nihous   0,00
Arthaud   0,50
Poutou   0,49
Chevènement   0,44
   
Hollande   55,96
Sarkozy   44,04

The new IFOP poll is included (all the numbers on my blog).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on January 09, 2012, 06:30:35 PM
Errrr....best of luck to him. (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2012/01/09/eric-cantona-bidding-to-be-french-president-115875-23692379/)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 09, 2012, 06:32:57 PM
Errrr....best of luck to him. (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2012/01/09/eric-cantona-bidding-to-be-french-president-115875-23692379/)

The Mirror gives Le President de la Republique a sex change.

Quote
Current president Nicola Sarkozy


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on January 09, 2012, 11:06:00 PM
If the PS manages to lose yet again, I think it's time for them to disband and let another party take up the left-wing mantle. This is ridiculous.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 10, 2012, 05:08:36 AM
This is pretty pathetic, yeah.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on January 10, 2012, 06:00:04 AM
As long as Antonio doesn't physically harm himself as a result....Sarkozy actually winning would be hillarious :D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 10, 2012, 06:50:09 AM
As long as Antonio doesn't physically harm himself as a result....Sarkozy actually winning would be hillarious :D

I think at this point I would just give up on partisan politics forever and focus only on data and analysis.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 10, 2012, 08:51:10 AM
As long as Antonio doesn't physically harm himself as a result....Sarkozy actually winning would be hillarious :D

I think at this point I would just give up on partisan politics forever and focus only on data and analysis.

Take some comfort with the last BVA poll.
I'll try to publish it tonight.
Well, I must acknowledge BVA is a bad pollster this cycle and they seem to be always late in the trends... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Beet on January 10, 2012, 09:59:55 AM
Besides his handsome good looks and charming demeanor, what bread-and-butter Socialist issues is Hollande (oops) hammering Sarkozy on?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 10, 2012, 10:14:22 AM
As long as Antonio doesn't physically harm himself as a result....Sarkozy actually winning would be hillarious :D

I think at this point I would just give up on partisan politics forever and focus only on data and analysis.

Which is what I've basically done, yeah.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 10, 2012, 02:13:54 PM
If the PS manages to lose yet again, I think it's time for them to disband and let another party take up the left-wing mantle. This is ridiculous.

This.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 11, 2012, 04:52:11 AM
If the PS manages to lose yet again, I think it's time for them to disband and let another party take up the left-wing mantle. This is ridiculous.

This.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 11, 2012, 09:54:28 AM
As long as Antonio doesn't physically harm himself as a result....Sarkozy actually winning would be hillarious :D

I think at this point I would just give up on partisan politics forever and focus only on data and analysis.

Take some comfort with the last BVA poll.
I'll try to publish it tonight.
Well, I must acknowledge BVA is a bad pollster this cycle and they seem to be always late in the trends... :P

I haven't seen it on your blog...

(yes, I still read it even when I don't take the time to comment ;))


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 11, 2012, 09:57:15 AM
The PS seems to be morphing ever so slowly into the second incarnation of the RadSocs: a bunch of experienced local notables who dominate local elections but which is not able to win anything of worth nationally. Of course, the RadSocs managed to remain a mainstay of government even then, but circumstances were different.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on January 11, 2012, 01:07:06 PM
The PS seems to be morphing ever so slowly into the second incarnation of the RadSocs: a bunch of experienced local notables who dominate local elections but which is not able to win anything of worth nationally.


great ! you point exactly right on the target


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on January 12, 2012, 05:26:51 AM
The PS seems to be morphing ever so slowly into the second incarnation of the RadSocs: a bunch of experienced local notables who dominate local elections but which is not able to win anything of worth nationally.


great ! you point exactly right on the target

Of course, the PS is totally finished even if its candidate is still on his way to win with a larger margin than Mitterrand in 1988... I know how the medias will try to make it fun and tense until the end, but Hollande is not Deferre at this point, am I right?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: essential on January 12, 2012, 03:44:35 PM
Hello everybody,

It seems that Paris Match and IFOP have started a daily poll

Hollande 27%
Sarkozy 23.5%
Le Pen 21.5%
Bayrou 13%

In the second round, always the same gap between Hollande and Sarkozy : 57-43


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 12, 2012, 04:03:08 PM
Hello everybody,

It seems that Paris Match and IFOP have started a daily poll

Hollande 27%
Sarkozy 23.5%
Le Pen 21.5%
Bayrou 13%

In the second round, always the same gap between Hollande and Sarkozy : 57-43

Marinementum again?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 12, 2012, 06:07:56 PM
France is now a great country:
http://www.parismatch.com/Actu-Match/Presidentielle-2012/la-presidentielle-en-temps-reel.html

Each day, at 18:00 PM (CET), you'll have a daily poll from IFOP, with a panel of 300-350, rolling on 3 days, so that we have a total 900-1000 voters...

My own tracker will take into account every new complete poll, i.e. each 3 days, I'll put the result into the database.
IFOP will become more important than others, but it's deserved and maybe OpinionWay, IPSOS and Harris will have their own trackers or, at least, more polls.

Details (in French) here ;D: http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/



Well, a great day for polling, an awful day for us, UMPers :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 13, 2012, 04:45:31 AM
Hello everybody,

It seems that Paris Match and IFOP have started a daily poll

Hollande 27%
Sarkozy 23.5%
Le Pen 21.5%
Bayrou 13%

In the second round, always the same gap between Hollande and Sarkozy : 57-43

Welcome to the forum, essential ! :)

Great to see we finally have a regular tracking poll ! :D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on January 13, 2012, 05:41:30 AM
what is a marinentum?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 13, 2012, 05:58:42 AM

"momentum" is what you say in the USA when a candidate is surging in the polls. I think the correct translation in French would be "dynamique". "Marinementum" of course refers to Marine Le Pen.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 13, 2012, 07:52:17 AM
The PS seems to be morphing ever so slowly into the second incarnation of the RadSocs: a bunch of experienced local notables who dominate local elections but which is not able to win anything of worth nationally.


great ! you point exactly right on the target
There definitely is a lot of truth to that. Of course the old SFIO was a bit like that as well.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 13, 2012, 12:25:07 PM
Ifop tracker, day 2

Hollade 27% nc
Sarkozy 24% +0.5
MLP 21.5% nc
Bayrou 12.5% -0.5
Melenchon 6.5% nc
Joly 3.5% nc
DVP 1.5% -0.5
Poutou 0.5% nc
Nihous 0.5% +0.5
Morin 0.5% -0.5
JPC 0.5% nc
Arthaud 0.5% nc

Hollande 56.5% -0.5
Sarko 43.5% +0.5


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on January 13, 2012, 08:40:31 PM
I'm sure the fact that France just lost its AAA credit rating will give Hollande some momentum back.  I hope to God, that is. 


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 16, 2012, 03:10:51 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #37 - 16 January 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 20% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            



      

Hollande   28,2
Sarkozy   24,66
Le Pen   18,25
Bayrou   12,88
Mélenchon   6,91
Joly   3,21
Villepin   2,55
Morin   0,54
Lepage   0,44
Dupont-Aignan   0,44
Boutin   0,52
Nihous   0
Arthaud   0,49
Poutou   0,45
Chevènement   0,45
   
Hollande   56,28
Sarkozy   43,72


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Beet on January 17, 2012, 11:04:22 AM
The problem with Hollande is that he's just running to lick Angela Merkel's and Christine Lagarde's bush. How would he be different than Sarkozy? Merkel and Lagarde will tell him to cut spending, bust unions, and open markets to cheap foreign imports, all in a bid to restore "competitiveness". Which is code for reducing the French standard of living because in the German mind, the French are too well-off relative to their productivity.

How is that left-wing?

The problem is not that PS loses constantly so someone else needs to take up the left-wing banner. Even if Hollande narrowly won the election, it would be just like the recent election in Denmark. A rear-guard victory by a declining political force. The problem is, no one takes up the left-wing banner. I was reading this weekend of a survey taken in Belle Epoque Germany in which the surveyers expressed astonishment that only 88 percent of the proletariat in one town supported the SPD. Naturally, it was assumed that proleterian = SPD. Now, the 'Socialist' party manages less than a fifth of the blue collar vote, yet not an eyebrow is raised. The PS problem is that they have lost the workers' vote. Why should the worker support Hollande over Sarkozy? Heck, Marine Le Pen is more left wing than Hollande at this point. She is the only one standing up to Frankfurt. And Victor Orban is the most Keynesian, Kirchnerist leader in Europe.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 17, 2012, 09:28:43 PM
What do (inaccurate as it happens, but that's not the issue) bourgeois assumptions about the solidity of working class support for the SPD a century ago have to do with the sociology of the PS vote of today? Support for the PS is not as closely linked to class (or to other socioeconomic factors) as most other (Western/Northern) European social democratic parties for historical reasons - not only do you have the old Catholic/Anti-Clerical divide (which worked against the formation of 'normal' class politics), but the socialist party that was embedded in working class communities was the Commies and not SFIO - and that has certainly been electorally unhelpful at times, sure. But that's not news and has nothing to do with the current crisis.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 18, 2012, 08:40:57 AM
Perhaps the reason why people don't make a fuss out of it is that the FN has been the largest party with ouvriers in all presidential elections since 1995. Even 2007. So some historical perspective would help, fo 'sho.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 18, 2012, 12:06:50 PM
I've just published on my blog a short study of transfers between 1st and 2nd rounds.
As there are some graphs and if you know that "vers" means "towards", you'll be able to understand the essential part of it ;)

For those interested, but not fluent in Victor Hugo's language...

And this article will give some comfort to all of you, "liberals", who are so worried of a Sarkozy comeback :P ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on January 18, 2012, 02:54:18 PM
BBF I really like much your blog, but everytime, it"s irritate me about your heavy remanence of MARION "Marine" Le pen.


As I know, if you come this way, you have no reason to call Martine Aubry "Aubry" or Ségolène Royal "Ségolène".


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 18, 2012, 04:36:54 PM
And Nicolas Paul Stéphane Sarközy de Nagy-Bocsa, too. ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 19, 2012, 02:17:36 AM
BBF I really like much your blog, but everytime, it"s irritate me about your heavy remanence of MARION "Marine" Le pen.


As I know, if you come this way, you have no reason to call Martine Aubry "Aubry" or Ségolène Royal "Ségolène".

There is one BIG difference between Panzergirl and the others: her motto includes "marine", which is a fake first name. She has never had Marine in her official identity. Never. This is not even her fifth first name or something. She is just "Marion Anne Perrine Le Pen".
Of course, "la vague Perrine" or "la vague Marion", it's less cool :P
Sarkozy, Royal, Aubry et alii have not created anything.

But if other readers are irritated, I may take it into account ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 19, 2012, 06:40:15 AM
BBF I really like much your blog, but everytime, it"s irritate me about your heavy remanence of MARION "Marine" Le pen.


As I know, if you come this way, you have no reason to call Martine Aubry "Aubry" or Ségolène Royal "Ségolène".

There is one BIG difference between Panzergirl and the others: her motto includes "marine", which is a fake first name. She has never had Marine in her official identity. Never. This is not even her fifth first name or something. She is just "Marion Anne Perrine Le Pen".
Of course, "la vague Perrine" or "la vague Marion", it's less cool :P
Sarkozy, Royal, Aubry et alii have not created anything.

But if other readers are irritated, I may take it into account ;)

Nah, it's quite fun. ;)

But just imagine what it would look like if the same standard was applied to US politicians !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 19, 2012, 08:04:02 AM
Oh, damn, I actually never knew that Le Penis' first name was actually 'Marion' and not 'Marine'.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 19, 2012, 10:17:55 AM
Throwing out old maps at my mom's (she's moving. Within the neighborhood, as it happens) I came across an old touristy map of the Marais Poitevin from the early nineties... with a short preface/dedication/whatevsky by Segolène Royal. Heh. Got thrown in the trash, mind.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on January 19, 2012, 06:33:47 PM
Oh, damn, I actually never knew that Le Penis' first name was actually 'Marion' and not 'Marine'.

News to me 'n all.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7ER_g3VYBI


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on January 19, 2012, 07:03:25 PM
last ifop

hollande 27
sarko 23
MARINE (^^) 21
bayrou 12


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on January 19, 2012, 07:04:16 PM
more than the presidential, the legislative elections will be f... interesting. Vivement June 2012 !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 19, 2012, 07:13:56 PM
more than the presidential, the legislative elections will be f... interesting. Vivement June 2012 !

My constituency is pretty interesting:

Fredo vs. Balkany's brother or something vs. common PS-Green candidate


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Joe Republic on January 19, 2012, 07:14:34 PM
So it's starting to look highly possible that Sarkozy could be knocked out in the first round?  (When is that, by the way?)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 19, 2012, 07:18:06 PM
So it's starting to look highly possible that Sarkozy could be knocked out in the first round?  (When is that, by the way?)

April 22.

It was actually way more likely around the time of the DSKgate, where Marion was polling up to 24% and he was polling as low as Chirac-2002 levels. His support seems to have stabilized at a pretty low 23-25% but still pretty much above Marion's highs. That being said, nothing can be excluded, though I doubt Sarkozy will be knocked out. He's a formidable campaigner and once he starts campaigning seriously, my opinion is that he'll go back up.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on January 19, 2012, 07:20:52 PM
more than the presidential, the legislative elections will be f... interesting. Vivement June 2012 !

My constituency is pretty interesting:

Fredo vs. Balkany's brother or something vs. common PS-Green candidate



mine was not : XXe arrondissement is a strong place of parisian left.


In my opinions, if surprise there will have, it will be on west side of France. The last cantonal elections had reveled failures in the strong wall of anti-FNism on the line Brest-Limoges. (heart of chirac's vote and moderate votes)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on January 19, 2012, 07:27:31 PM
So it's starting to look highly possible that Sarkozy could be knocked out in the first round?  (When is that, by the way?)

April 22.

It was actually way more likely around the time of the DSKgate, where Marion was polling up to 24% and he was polling as low as Chirac-2002 levels. His support seems to have stabilized at a pretty low 23-25% but still pretty much above Marion's highs. That being said, nothing can be excluded, though I doubt Sarkozy will be knocked out. He's a formidable campaigner and once he starts campaigning seriously, my opinion is that he'll go back up.



frankly, I can't myself make bet on the finalists. Sarko is a very good candidate, but with few reserves.
Hollande is a weak candidate, but the other leftists candidates can't compete against him. If, as I think, left make 40 % of vote, Hollande will be finalist. (and, of course, if left is stronger than 40 %, finalist too)
Marine seems to be at her top. It would be difficult for her to pass from 20 to 25 %.
Bayrou is rising, but he start from very far.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Beet on January 20, 2012, 01:34:09 PM
What do (inaccurate as it happens, but that's not the issue) bourgeois assumptions about the solidity of working class support for the SPD a century ago have to do with the sociology of the PS vote of today? Support for the PS is not as closely linked to class (or to other socioeconomic factors) as most other (Western/Northern) European social democratic parties for historical reasons - not only do you have the old Catholic/Anti-Clerical divide (which worked against the formation of 'normal' class politics), but the socialist party that was embedded in working class communities was the Commies and not SFIO - and that has certainly been electorally unhelpful at times, sure. But that's not news and has nothing to do with the current crisis.

Perhaps the reason why people don't make a fuss out of it is that the FN has been the largest party with ouvriers in all presidential elections since 1995. Even 2007. So some historical perspective would help, fo 'sho.

Fascinating, gentlemen. I only mentioned the SPD a century ago because that was a time when, according to various sources I have read, the socialist parties were on the ascendancy everywhere in Europe, whereas today, it is the reverse with one or two exceptions, and so I detect some continental-wide trends in both instances. Are there any good books or online sources to recommend to learn more about the historical patterns by class and demographic among previous French Presidential elections?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 23, 2012, 03:02:47 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #38 - 23 January 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 20% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            



      

Hollande   28,33
Sarkozy   24,07
Le Pen   18,80
Bayrou   13,11
Mélenchon   7,19
Joly   3,22
Villepin   2,41
Morin   0,56
Lepage   0,33
Dupont-Aignan   0,54
Boutin   0,32
Nihous   0,00
Arthaud   0,50
Poutou   0,28
Chevènement   0,34
   
Hollande   56,72
Sarkozy   43,28

These numbers are boring.... Can't Bayrou really surge ? Can't Sarkozy fight back ? Can't even Mélenchon climb above 10% ?
Bah....


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 23, 2012, 06:36:58 PM
LOL, Ségo. Although, no need for her to be shafted.

http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2012/01/23/bourget-segolene-royal_n_1222803.html?ref=france


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on January 23, 2012, 07:05:33 PM
It seems her only remaining political goal is to become the French equivalent of Sarah Palin/Michele Bachmann.

It will be interesting to see how her race shapes up in La Rochelle and what kind of position she will demand, with her rumoured favourite being President of the NatAss


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 24, 2012, 03:49:23 PM
Graphs ! :)

()

()

Things are on the right track again. ;)


BTW Fabien, don't hesitate if you want to use my graphs for your blog's purpose. Just tell me and I'll post them every week.

(I said it because, to be honest, your 2nd round graph is just ugly :P)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 25, 2012, 06:27:07 PM
You're right, I'll change it for next week (have not done so before by being purely lazy ;))


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 26, 2012, 05:52:51 PM
Tonight on TV, Hollande wasn't too bad. Juppé looked old.
Only some weaknesses on his personality, but other wise good on his program...
He will be very difficult to beat, even by Bayrou.
:(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on January 27, 2012, 04:40:27 AM
Tonight on TV, Hollande wasn't too bad. Juppé looked old.
Only some weaknesses on his personality, but other wise good on his program...
He will be very difficult to beat, even by Bayrou.
:(

Hey, so we actually agree sometimes ! ;D

Hollande was great. It's the first time I see him fully convincing on issues.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 27, 2012, 06:25:45 PM
Just reading that the Sarko camp called Hollande's rally "arrogant" and "self important".

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 30, 2012, 03:22:10 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #39 - 30 January 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 20% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            



      

Hollande   28,45
Sarkozy   24,04
Le Pen   18,52
Bayrou   13,26
Mélenchon   7,54
Joly   3,24
Villepin   2,00
Morin   0,49
Lepage   0,37
Dupont-Aignan   0,59
Boutin   0,36
Nihous   0,09
Arthaud   0,46
Poutou   0,24
Chevènement   0,37
   
Hollande   57,05
Sarkozy   42,95

Mélenchon is up but it doesn't hurt Hollande, who is even stronger.
Bayrou is more or less stalled.



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on January 30, 2012, 03:37:40 PM
Any indicators on how last night's TV-appearance for Sarkozy went down?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 30, 2012, 04:54:13 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #39 - 30 January 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 20% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            



      

Hollande   28,42
Sarkozy   23,91
Le Pen   18,65
Bayrou   13,27
Mélenchon   7,57
Joly   3,22
Villepin   1,97
Morin   0,52
Lepage   0,37
Dupont-Aignan   0,58
Boutin   0,33
Nihous   0,09
Arthaud   0,46
Poutou   0,25
Chevènement   0,38
   
Hollande   57,04
Sarkozy   42,96

Mélenchon is up but it doesn't hurt Hollande, who is even stronger.
Bayrou is more or less stalled.

UPDATED: sorry, I've forgotten to add the last daily IFOP...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 31, 2012, 06:08:55 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #39 - 30 January 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 20% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            



      

Hollande   28,38
Sarkozy   23,92
Le Pen   18,78
Bayrou   13,20
Mélenchon   7,56
Joly   3,20
Villepin   1,97
Morin   0,52
Lepage   0,34
Dupont-Aignan   0,62
Boutin   0,30
Nihous   0,08
Arthaud   0,46
Poutou   0,28
Chevènement   0,39
   
Hollande   57,04
Sarkozy   42,96

Mélenchon is up but it doesn't hurt Hollande, who is even stronger.
Bayrou is more or less stalled.

UPDATED: sorry, I've forgotten to add the last daily IFOP...

UPDATED AGAIN ! You won't believe it, but this sh*** pollster, IFOP (yes I'm angry !), has in fact released other polls which are different from their daily ones... >:(
So, another big one is in, but, fortunately, with no great effect.
It's really a mess in their daily rolling poll, because they don't give the daily sample and they change the sample each night !!!
And for their other polls , they don't say if it's different or not from their daily one and you're forced to entail it from their foggy comments...
They seemed the most reliable this cycle, but frankly, they are essentially here to make big money... and they don't care about political geeks...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 01, 2012, 04:46:24 AM
What's going on with IFOP ? I really don't understand...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on February 01, 2012, 04:49:33 PM
It's really a mess in their daily rolling poll, because they don't give the daily sample and they change the sample each night !!!
And for their other polls , they don't say if it's different or not from their daily one and you're forced to entail it from their foggy comments...
They seemed the most reliable this cycle, but frankly, they are essentially here to make big money... and they don't care about political geeks...

Actually they are polling all the day long, and use the data from day-1 at noon to day-3 at noon so it's a little messy because at the beginning they were using all the day-1, all the day-2 and all the day-3 (hope it's crystal clear, but I'm not sure). But you can infer the daily sample by substracting the daily sample to the one of the day before, right?

Concerning the other online poll they released earlier today, it was done during only two days. They used the daily tracking sample (about 660 people), and added about 700 interviews in order to have a large sample.

Well, clearly they are good at trying new things (even if I'm a bit conservative - on this aspect :) - and prefer telephone polls than online survey) but completely messy. I definitely prefer less vocal but more reliable pollsters like TNS Sofres and IPSOS.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 02, 2012, 04:02:37 AM
It's really a mess in their daily rolling poll, because they don't give the daily sample and they change the sample each night !!!
And for their other polls , they don't say if it's different or not from their daily one and you're forced to entail it from their foggy comments...
They seemed the most reliable this cycle, but frankly, they are essentially here to make big money... and they don't care about political geeks...

Actually they are polling all the day long, and use the data from day-1 at noon to day-3 at noon so it's a little messy because at the beginning they were using all the day-1, all the day-2 and all the day-3 (hope it's crystal clear, but I'm not sure). But you can infer the daily sample by substracting the daily sample to the one of the day before, right?
Concerning the other online poll they released earlier today, it was done during only two days. They used the daily tracking sample (about 660 people), and added about 700 interviews in order to have a large sample.

Well, clearly they are good at trying new things (even if I'm a bit conservative - on this aspect :) - and prefer telephone polls than online survey) but completely messy. I definitely prefer less vocal but more reliable pollsters like TNS Sofres and IPSOS.

Unfortunately no, because, one day it's day D-3 plus day D-2 plus day D-1 plus day D.
The next one, it's the same plus day D+1. and then it's only D-1, D, D+1 and D+2. And then, only 3 days, etc.
It's completely erratic and you can't infer some daily samples because the total samples are never calculated with the same number of daily samples in them.
:(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 02, 2012, 05:06:48 AM
If it's always such a pain in the ass, you should maybe just ignore the daily tracking poll. It's not like you need it with all the polls we get each week, and it also seems to be pretty off compared to other pollsters.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Math on February 02, 2012, 05:08:58 AM
It's really a mess in their daily rolling poll, because they don't give the daily sample and they change the sample each night !!!
And for their other polls , they don't say if it's different or not from their daily one and you're forced to entail it from their foggy comments...
They seemed the most reliable this cycle, but frankly, they are essentially here to make big money... and they don't care about political geeks...

Actually they are polling all the day long, and use the data from day-1 at noon to day-3 at noon so it's a little messy because at the beginning they were using all the day-1, all the day-2 and all the day-3 (hope it's crystal clear, but I'm not sure). But you can infer the daily sample by substracting the daily sample to the one of the day before, right?
Concerning the other online poll they released earlier today, it was done during only two days. They used the daily tracking sample (about 660 people), and added about 700 interviews in order to have a large sample.

Well, clearly they are good at trying new things (even if I'm a bit conservative - on this aspect :) - and prefer telephone polls than online survey) but completely messy. I definitely prefer less vocal but more reliable pollsters like TNS Sofres and IPSOS.

Unfortunately no, because, one day it's day D-3 plus day D-2 plus day D-1 plus day D.
The next one, it's the same plus day D+1. and then it's only D-1, D, D+1 and D+2. And then, only 3 days, etc.
It's completely erratic and you can't infer some daily samples because the total samples are never calculated with the same number of daily samples in them.
:(

Non non non, my explanation above is false actually, but it's so confusing than I hope you will excuse me :) : they use the data from day-1 at noon, day-2, day-3 and day-4 before noon, which makes exactly three days. They use this method every day, even if sometimes they themselves make mistakes in their reports, saying the filed only last 3 days... But actually I'm not sure if you can find the daily samples since they don't use full days...

I hope one day Gallup will come back in France !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 02, 2012, 11:54:57 AM
But one day the sample is 866, the next one 945 and the one after that 1176. And then back to 960 or 877...
And as they don't publish it on Saturdays and Sundays...
It's really impossible to infer daily samples.

I hate them: it's like promising to give you chocolate and then be obliged to only look at it through a window ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on February 04, 2012, 09:13:42 AM
Does nobody actually poll in respect of elections to the National Assemby?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 05, 2012, 06:07:11 AM
Does nobody actually poll in respect of elections to the National Assemby?

Nope. As sad as this sounds, nobody cares about Legislative elections because whoever wins the prez elections has its party winning legislative elections too. Le Monde published a nice analysis a couple months ago about the political trends of France and forecasting possible results of the 2012 legislatives, but they still didn't bother enough to ask for a poll...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 05, 2012, 10:32:20 AM
Coverage of those elections here will be pretty good though, when it comes to it. If that's any consolation.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on February 05, 2012, 10:44:49 AM
Does nobody actually poll in respect of elections to the National Assemby?

Nope. As sad as this sounds, nobody cares about Legislative elections because whoever wins the prez elections has its party winning legislative elections too. Le Monde published a nice analysis a couple months ago about the political trends of France and forecasting possible results of the 2012 legislatives, but they still didn't bother enough to ask for a poll...

It was a different story when the presidential term was seven years and there would always be "mid term" legislative election outside of the presidential election cycle in France. Now the legislative election to
Just be an exclamation point after the presidential election.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 05, 2012, 11:05:48 AM
Just read on SPIEGEL Online that Angela Merkel is planning to actively campaign for Sarkozy. This unprecedented move has supposedly pissed off Hollande and the French socialists pretty bad.

Any word on this in French media??

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,813455,00.html


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 05, 2012, 12:07:48 PM
Yep, this has been mentioned a couple weeks ago.

Honestly, I don't see how this could help Sarko. It's too late for him to make people buy into his new "sound, responsible and experienced" persona. And it's not like Merkel is much loved around here. ;D Maybe mine is wishful thinking, though...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on February 05, 2012, 12:51:09 PM
Merkel endorsement for Sarkozy makes me support Hollande even stronger. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 05, 2012, 01:01:21 PM
Yeah, this would be good news for Hollande if Germans could vote in French elections.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 05, 2012, 01:27:53 PM
Just read on SPIEGEL Online that Angela Merkel is planning to actively campaign for Sarkozy. This unprecedented move has supposedly pissed off Hollande and the French socialists pretty bad.

Any word on this in French media??

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,813455,00.html

This may backfire. Merkel is the new Bismarck. French people should HATE her ¬¬


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 05, 2012, 03:23:54 PM
Just read on SPIEGEL Online that Angela Merkel is planning to actively campaign for Sarkozy. This unprecedented move has supposedly pissed off Hollande and the French socialists pretty bad.

Any word on this in French media??

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,813455,00.html

This may backfire. Merkel is the new Bismarck. French people should HATE her ¬¬

Merkel's actively backing Sarko? Definately want Hollande to win now.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Beet on February 05, 2012, 03:25:42 PM
Merkel has nothing to worry about. A couple hundred basis points rise in the FRAGER10YR and Hollande will be on bended knee.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 05, 2012, 04:50:51 PM
Ifop and the CEVIPOF have done a few interesting demographic studies w/ regards to voting intentions.

Union Membership
base poll: H 28%, S 22%, LP 20.5%, B 13.5%, M 8%, J 3%
'Active' labour force: H 27%, LP 24%, S 18%, B 13%, M 8%, J 3%, V 2%
Unionized 'actifs': H 33%, LP 19%, M 14%, B 13%, S 12%, J 4%
Non-unionized: LP 28%, H 24%, S 22%, B 14%, M 4%, J 3%, V 2%

Detail by union:
CGT: H 38%, M 22%, LP 22%, B 9%, S 4%, J 3%
CFDT: H 37%, LP 17%, B 16%, S 13%, M 8%, J 5%
FO: H 31%, LP 25%, B 14%, S 14%, M 12%, NDA 2%
CFTC: S 25%, H 22%, LP 21%, B 19%, J 5%, M 4%, Poutou 3%
SUD: H 40%, M 33%, LP 13%, Poutou 5%, J 3%, B 3%, Arthaud 2%
UNSA: H 29%, B 24%, S 11%, M 11%, LP 10%, J 5%, Morin 5%, V 3%, JPC 2%

Runoff:
base poll: 57-43 H
'Active' labour force: 61-39 H
Unionized 'actifs': 73-27 H
Non-unionized: 52-48 H

Detail by union:
CGT: 87-13 H
CFDT: 68-32 H
FO: 71-29 H
CFTC: 52-48 H
SUD: 98-2 H
UNSA: 67-33 H

LGBT
base poll: Left-G 41%, Right-D 32.5%, EXD 19.5%, MD 6.5%
Hetero: G 40.5%, D 33%, EXD 19.5%, MD 6.5%
Non-Hetero: G 49.5%, D 22.5%, EXD 19%, MD 9%
Bi: G 47%, D 25%, EXD 20%, MD 8%
Homo: G 53%, D 20%, EXD 17%, MD 10%

Hunters
base poll: H 29%, S 22.5%, LP 19.5%, M 6%, Nihous 0.5%
All hunters: LP 25%, H 22%, S 16%, M 11%, N 7%
Regular hunters: LP 22%, H 18%, S 16%, M 14%, N 10%
Occasional hunters: LP 29%, H 29%, S 18%, M 7%, N 1%

Ancestry and Nationality
base poll: H 29%, S 22.5%, LP 19.5%, Centre-C 15.5%
Pieds-noirs: LP 28%, S 26%, H 26%, C 9%
Pied-noir ancestry: H 31%, LP 24%, S 15%, C 14%

Nationality of parents - incomplete data
Spanish: H 36%, LP 24%, S 21%
Italian: H 28%, S 24%, LP 23%
Portuguese: S 28%, H 27%
Polish: S 35%, H 10%
Algerian: H 45%, M 16%, B 13%
Moroccan: H 35%, V 28%
Tunisian: S 19%, V 18%, J 18%, H 9%

Public Sector
base poll: H 29%, S 22.5%, LP 19.5%, Centre-C 15.5%
Teachers: H 41%, M 15%, B 11%, S 10%, J 10%
Uni profs: H 38%, J 21%, S 12%
HS teachers: H 30%, M 20%, B 14%, S 13%
ES teachers: H 49%, M 12%, B 10%, S 8%

State public sector: H 30%, LP 15%, S 15%, J 10%, M 8%, B 8%, Abst 8%
Hospital staff: H 33%, S 18%, LP 18%, Abst 9%, M 8%, B 4%
'FP territoriale': H 38%, LP 13%, S 11%, Abst 10%, J 9%, B 7%, M 5%
State enterprises: H 34%, LP 24%, B 10%, Abst 10%, S 9%, M 6%, J 3%

Public sector employees: H 32%, S 20%, LP 18%, Abst 10%, B 7%, M 6%, J 4%
Public sector 'cadres': H 35%, S 19%, B 11%, J 8%, M 8%, Abst 4%, LP 4%
Teachers: H 36%, S 17%, M 12%, B 10%, J 10%, Abst 6%, LP 3%
Police/military: LP 37%, S 27%, B 11%, Abst 10%, H 8%, J 3%

Religion
Catholics: S 29%, H 24%, LP 22%, B 7%, M 3%, J 3%
Muslim: H 44%, ?
Protestant: H 33%, S 21%

Boutin @ 7% with weekly-mass goers.



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 05, 2012, 04:53:59 PM
Very interesting stuff.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 05, 2012, 08:48:51 PM
What are the chances that Marine doesn't make the ballot (she's at 340 signitures) and would this be good for Sarko, by default?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 05, 2012, 08:49:46 PM
There's a fuss every year about the fascist candidate not making the ballot. But they always do.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 06, 2012, 04:32:15 AM
There's a fuss every year about the fascist candidate not making the ballot. But they always do.

Basically.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 06, 2012, 06:11:19 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #40 - 6 February 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 25% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-February.            



      

Hollande   29,93
Sarkozy   24,29
Le Pen   18,05
Bayrou   12,72
Mélenchon   7,8
Joly   3,05
Villepin   1,66
Morin   0,39
Lepage   0,31
Dupont-Aignan   0,63
Boutin   0,18
Nihous   0,08
Arthaud   0,42
Poutou   0,2
Chevènement   0,28
   
Hollande   57,28
Sarkozy   42,72

Leftists of the world, rejoice !
Hollande is unbeatable and Sarkozy is doomed !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 07, 2012, 02:44:38 AM
Fillon was pretty optimistic when he said Sarko had 20% chances... He's more like 10% right now. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: batmacumba on February 08, 2012, 09:29:10 AM

Moroccan: H 35%, V 28%
Tunisian: S 19%, V 18%, J 18%, H 9%


Ahn?!?!?!

V de Villepin?
WTF?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 08, 2012, 10:40:42 AM

Moroccan: H 35%, V 28%
Tunisian: S 19%, V 18%, J 18%, H 9%


Ahn?!?!?!

V de Villepin?
WTF?

Villepin was born in Rabat, but I suspect a useless tiny sample size. Unless you folks know something about Franco-Tunisians/Moroccans I don't.

The Polish stuff seems weird too.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 09, 2012, 12:52:48 PM
Wasn't it a bit hasty to switch from 20 to 25% in weighting ? The rythm of polls doesn't seem to have accelerated much since last month.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 09, 2012, 05:05:36 PM
Wasn't it a bit hasty to switch from 20 to 25% in weighting ? The rythm of polls doesn't seem to have accelerated much since last month.

Oh, it has in fact: I've still 3 polls to publish on my blog :P
22 polls are currently in the tracker, with a total sample of 13,904 RVs !!!

And, what is more, we have now one more event each week. So the rhythm of the campaign justifies this new weighting.

And it will change again on the 20th of February, which will be quite fine, since Sarkozy will probably have declared himself at this date (or will be about to do it). So, I'm pretty satisfied of my weightings so far ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 09, 2012, 05:15:47 PM
Oh, it has in fact: I've still 3 polls to publish on my blog :P

Damn you, why didn't you publish them already ! >:(

Anyways, stay prudent. 25% might be fine, but if you raise it further the tracker could be subject to heavy and meaningless swings. Let's keep some correction based on past results until the very last days of the campaign.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 09, 2012, 05:18:39 PM
People care more about boring polls in the most boring election than about my whole demographic stats? :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 09, 2012, 05:52:59 PM
People care more about boring polls in the most boring election than about my whole demographic stats? :(

I looked through them, of course. :) Anyways, I'm a poll junkie and even if it's totally meaningless I look with great interest to any new movement in polling numbers.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 10, 2012, 05:56:18 AM
Oh, it has in fact: I've still 3 polls to publish on my blog :P

Damn you, why didn't you publish them already ! >:(

Anyways, stay prudent. 25% might be fine, but if you raise it further the tracker could be subject to heavy and meaningless swings. Let's keep some correction based on past results until the very last days of the campaign.

Published yesterday night ;)

Well, I also need not to have excessive delays in swings or new trends. I'll see, but for the moment, I stick to my changes in weightings.



As for Hash's numbers, well, they are impressive, but not quite expected and not very original.

The only numbers that can be surprising are:

- for hunters, the leftism is even greater than expected, and might explain that Nihous is so low in polls. Sure, hunters are really not from Sologne :P

- for Moroccans and Tunisians, it's probably just statistical noise, but it can be explained by the "chiraco-gaullism": being anti-US (or viewed as such) is probably popular with Arabs (at least with Arabs in more "enlightened" context, hence the bad result for Villepin among Algerians, who anyway can't be fans of gaullism...)

- for Polish and Portuguese, Sarkozy can probably thank the weakness of Boutin and the fact that there is no candidate able to carry Catholic values.

- the difference between Pieds-Noirs and their children is no surprise, but is very interesting.

- among civil servants, territorial ones are the more leftist and that's again no surprise, but it's interesting to see it confirmed.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 10, 2012, 06:09:02 AM
When you get new poll results, I'd be grateful if you could publish them in these thread as soon as possible. It is understandable that you need time to write a full analysis to post on your blog, but here you'd only need to give us the rough numbers.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 11, 2012, 03:58:12 PM
Probably not Porte d'Eau (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/police-break-in-at-presidential-election-hq-of-former-french-premier-villepin/2012/02/11/gIQAJtc25Q_story.html) materiel. :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 11, 2012, 04:00:41 PM
Probably not Porte d'Eau (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/police-break-in-at-presidential-election-hq-of-former-french-premier-villepin/2012/02/11/gIQAJtc25Q_story.html) materiel. :(

GAME CHANGER


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 11, 2012, 06:51:43 PM
Probably not Porte d'Eau (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/police-break-in-at-presidential-election-hq-of-former-french-premier-villepin/2012/02/11/gIQAJtc25Q_story.html) materiel. :(

GAME CHANGER

I don't think so, frankly: remember how many times Royal's flat was "visited" ? :P
Only the loonies face break-in, it seems ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 11, 2012, 06:53:09 PM
When you get new poll results, I'd be grateful if you could publish them in these thread as soon as possible. It is understandable that you need time to write a full analysis to post on your blog, but here you'd only need to give us the rough numbers.

I don't have enough time. Usually, they are published quite quickly on my blog (and readable even for our non-French friends ;)).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 12, 2012, 08:53:44 PM
Sarko on gay marriage:

Quote
En ces temps troublés où notre société a besoin de repères, je ne crois pas qu'il faille brouiller l'image de cette institution sociale essentielle qu'est le mariage

Quote
In these troubled times where our society is in need of repair, I don't believe that it's necessary to smudge/to blur (i'm not sure, smudge sounds more bigoted) the image of this essential social institution that is marriage.

I don't think i've ever read anything so populist. "In these troubled times", eugh, troll President.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 13, 2012, 08:05:28 AM
There is a big mistake in your translation.

a besoin de repères= needs some landmarks.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 13, 2012, 10:57:25 AM
Sarkozy is basically running really far on the right, having failed to understand that FN voters in 2007 didn't vote for him because he could say xenophobic stuff, but rather because they liked his record in government. If you look at 2007 polls, you'll see that his big shazaam about an Immigration Ministry actually turned off FN voters, while concrete stuff like thre Gare du Nord riots turned them on.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 13, 2012, 12:41:03 PM
Hard to believe, but it seems than candidate Sarkozy manages to be more incompetent than president Sarkozy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 13, 2012, 02:09:53 PM
Yeah, if you are unlucky enough to hear the french news, you'll learn how or Interior Minister said that "all civilizations aren't worth the same", or how Sarko announced he would call referendums on unemployment's indemnization and on immigration rights. He is desperate, and he thinks that by looking like a xenophobe he will reconquer the FN's electorate and reproduce his 2007 exploit. I don't know if one should laugh at so much stupidity or cry at so much lack of principles.

Bottom line : it is impossible for any sound person not to loath such a pathetic, petty, shameless politician. Any right-winger with a minimum of principles should seriously start consider other voting options in 2007.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 13, 2012, 02:43:46 PM
Bottom line : it is impossible for any sound person not to loath such a pathetic, petty, shameless politician. Any right-winger with a minimum of principles should seriously start consider other voting options in 2007.

Oh, I hear about that even here. I'm following French politics, you know.
And, I know a French right-centrist which is considering other options since a while.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 13, 2012, 02:49:28 PM
His position on gay marriage is obvious.

In exchange, Boutin (the French Santorum) endorsed her.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 13, 2012, 03:21:05 PM
Bottom line : it is impossible for any sound person not to loath such a pathetic, petty, shameless politician. Any right-winger with a minimum of principles should seriously start consider other voting options in 2007.

Oh, I hear about that even here. I'm following French politics, you know.
And, I know a French right-centrist which is considering other options since a while.

I was refering to a certain French right-winger who often posts in this thread. ;)


And yeah, also part of his strategy is blocking any right-wing/center-right candidate from running. Hence pressures on Borloo supporters when he was considering a run, buying back all of Morin's former supporters, and now this pandering to Boutin. He is obsessed with his 1st round results, probably thinking he will get some momentum from a good performance, and forgets that the real problem is his inability to attract moderates in general (which means that former Borloo voters have flown to Bayrou and even Hollande rather than him).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 13, 2012, 03:25:02 PM
Just to illustrate my point:

()

At any rate, there is 0 chance that I'll vote for Sarkozy in the runoff. I might have voted for him, but he was nice enough to remind me that his cabinet includes Petainistes, that he's always a faux populist and now he's proven to me that he hates freedom and is a moralfag. I'll probably write in Rick Perry.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 13, 2012, 06:51:06 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #41 - 13 February 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 25% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-February.            



      

Hollande   30,51
Sarkozy   24,66
Le Pen   17,82
Bayrou   12,6
Mélenchon   7,84
Joly   2,79
Villepin   1,39
Morin   0,35
Lepage   0,28
Dupont-Aignan   0,58
Boutin   0,18
Nihous   0,15
Arthaud   0,49
Poutou   0,23
Chevènement   0,14
Cheminade   0,00

Hollande   57,53
Sarkozy   42,47

BVA has started to test Cheminade, so I include him in my tracker. He can only go up :P
But having a LaRouchist in this tracker is enough to make me feel "happy" (I mean "amused": don't make any mistake, I despise Cheminade)... After all, now that I know I've lost "my" candidate and that my second round candidate is doomed with a failed strategy... :(

So, Boutin is out. Morin is set to drop this week too.
Even Villepin seems to have lost some enthusiasm.
I don't believe Lepage wants really to be a candidate.
And Nihous really seems to have difficulties in gathering signatures from mayors.
After, maybe we'll have only Dupont-Aignan, Arthaud and Poutou as small candidates.



The older I grow, the more Catholic I am.
I'm really disgusted by the leftist paradigm of medias and of teachers. I deeply believe that this modern or post-modern left, having destroyed the old 3rd Republic school, is the best ally of this mass-consumption capitalism which is only looking for stupid consumers.
I deeply believe that we are already in a society of genetic manipulations, of merchandization of the human body, of "good old" euthanasia like the 1930s Sweden, that we'll soon be forbidden to keep our children at home.
I deeply believe that all these so-called social advances are only the other face of our deep moral decline due to mass capitalism. It's only two sides of materialism.

And so, you know, how can I pick a candidate ?!?
I'm completely lost in the current political landscape.
Sarkozy is now a weird mix of rightist populism, of so-called colbertism and of some stupid reaganesque policies.
Boutin, who is a bit mad on a personal level, has dropped her bid.
Bayrou is a loony, who has betrayed his old political tradition and is unable to decide on anything.
Hollande is personally respectable, but is backed by all those leftists (please read "gauchistes", not "hommes et femmes de gauche"), especially the young ones, that are a real moral danger: Hamon, Bruno Julliard, Hammadie, Lienemann, Delanoë, Lebranchu, Aubry, Lang, Dray, Mamère, Joly, Duflot, Contassot, etc. Without any money, the left will only change things on social matters and I can't vote for that.

So, yeah, I'm now a zombie, like in Atlasia :P
It has no real importance anymore. President Hollande doesn't need me ;)



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 14, 2012, 09:40:18 AM
I never read the news, but this headline was hilarious:

Le candidat Sarkozy défendra le gouvernement « du peuple, par le peuple et pour le peuple »

I see he's gonna full-blast populist on us.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 14, 2012, 10:27:28 AM
Morin is about to rally Sarkozy, without being able to influence his plans: Morin has really lost everything...

Some around Borloo wonder why Bayrou doesn't phone Borloo...
Imagine... It would a real event... But Bayrou is Bayrou: alone and proud. But alone.



Unfortunately, this election is as boring as anticipated, whatever we try to do :P

I'll probably soon switch to trying to predict Hollande's government and to try to assess who will lead the right after the big defeat.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 14, 2012, 10:29:28 AM
I never read the news, but this headline was hilarious:

Le candidat Sarkozy défendra le gouvernement « du peuple, par le peuple et pour le peuple »

I see he's gonna full-blast populist on us.

Oh Jesus Christ.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Iannis on February 14, 2012, 10:39:06 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #41 - 13 February 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 25% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-February.            



      

Hollande   30,51
Sarkozy   24,66
Le Pen   17,82
Bayrou   12,6
Mélenchon   7,84
Joly   2,79
Villepin   1,39
Morin   0,35
Lepage   0,28
Dupont-Aignan   0,58
Boutin   0,18
Nihous   0,15
Arthaud   0,49
Poutou   0,23
Chevènement   0,14
Cheminade   0,00

Hollande   57,53
Sarkozy   42,47

BVA has started to test Cheminade, so I include him in my tracker. He can only go up :P
But having a LaRouchist in this tracker is enough to make me feel "happy" (I mean "amused": don't make any mistake, I despise Cheminade)... After all, now that I know I've lost "my" candidate and that my second round candidate is doomed with a failed strategy... :(

So, Boutin is out. Morin is set to drop this week too.
Even Villepin seems to have lost some enthusiasm.
I don't believe Lepage wants really to be a candidate.
And Nihous really seems to have difficulties in gathering signatures from mayors.
After, maybe we'll have only Dupont-Aignan, Arthaud and Poutou as small candidates.



The older I grow, the more Catholic I am.
I'm really disgusted by the leftist paradigm of medias and of teachers. I deeply believe that this modern or post-modern left, having destroyed the old 3rd Republic school, is the best ally of this mass-consumption capitalism which is only looking for stupid consumers.
I deeply believe that we are already in a society of genetic manipulations, of merchandization of the human body, of "good old" euthanasia like the 1930s Sweden, that we'll soon be forbidden to keep our children at home.
I deeply believe that all these so-called social advances are only the other face of our deep moral decline due to mass capitalism. It's only two sides of materialism.

And so, you know, how can I pick a candidate ?!?
I'm completely lost in the current political landscape.
Sarkozy is now a weird mix of rightist populism, of so-called colbertism and of some stupid reaganesque policies.
Boutin, who is a bit mad on a personal level, has dropped her bid.
Bayrou is a loony, who has betrayed his old political tradition and is unable to decide on anything.
Hollande is personally respectable, but is backed by all those leftists (please read "gauchistes", not "hommes et femmes de gauche"), especially the young ones, that are a real moral danger: Hamon, Bruno Julliard, Hammadie, Lienemann, Delanoë, Lebranchu, Aubry, Lang, Dray, Mamère, Joly, Duflot, Contassot, etc. Without any money, the left will only change things on social matters and I can't vote for that.

So, yeah, I'm now a zombie, like in Atlasia :P
It has no real importance anymore. President Hollande doesn't need me ;)



Hollande is more dangerous for econmic reason. One strenght point of France are the big companies, the multinational, that can internationalise and make research & development, and this guy wants to raise taxes on these!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
To do what? To spend more money on teachers!! With the deficit/GDP that France has!
He's a real danger for all Europe!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 14, 2012, 10:51:07 AM
I never read the news, but this headline was hilarious:

Le candidat Sarkozy défendra le gouvernement « du peuple, par le peuple et pour le peuple »

I see he's gonna full-blast populist on us.

Oh, if true, it would be a welcome change of the 5 last years, where it was more exact to say:

« des riches, par les riches et pour les riches », « des banques, par les banques et pour les banques » and more recently « de Merkel, par Merkel et pour Merkel ».


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 14, 2012, 10:55:52 AM
How is an idiot like Sarkozy the president of anywhere? Would basically anyone but Sego have won in 2007?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 14, 2012, 10:59:27 AM
How is an idiot like Sarkozy the president of anywhere? Would basically anyone but Sego have won in 2007?

Segolène was a pretty loosy and bad candidate. I wanted Bayrou to win that year (as he could beat Sarkozy, unlike Ségolène.)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on February 14, 2012, 11:01:10 AM
I love how just about everything sounds worse when you imagine it coming from Sarkozy's mouth.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 14, 2012, 11:08:33 AM
I love how just about everything sounds worse when you imagine it coming from Sarkozy's mouth.

Yes, it does
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Vq_1xt6vuY


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 14, 2012, 01:10:07 PM
The older I grow, the more Catholic I am.
I'm really disgusted by the leftist paradigm of medias and of teachers. I deeply believe that this modern or post-modern left, having destroyed the old 3rd Republic school, is the best ally of this mass-consumption capitalism which is only looking for stupid consumers.
I deeply believe that we are already in a society of genetic manipulations, of merchandization of the human body, of "good old" euthanasia like the 1930s Sweden, that we'll soon be forbidden to keep our children at home.
I deeply believe that all these so-called social advances are only the other face of our deep moral decline due to mass capitalism. It's only two sides of materialism.

OK, let me be as short as I can :

I. Don't. Get it.

So you blame the left (and the medias, which are indeed very left-wing ; fortunately we have Le Figaro which is the last bastion of objectivity !) for destroying the republican education system. Are you serious ? I'm not questioning the fact left-wing governments (and - as sad as it makes me to admit it - Jospin in first place) have a fair share of responsibility for the wrecking of our educational system. But, on this matter, I honestly have difficulties to see differences with the action of right-wing government. The new educational policies began with Giscard and have been pursued, in different fashions, by every or almost every government since. An the right's action is just as catastrophic as the left, if not more. Do you think the educational system is better today than it was in 2002 ? Come on, stop fooling yourself.

(And, just a little digression on the topic, it's pretty funny to see a catho-conservative being so attached to the 3rd Republic's school system. I don't need to remind you which social force was the most bitter enemy of 3rd Republic and how the institutions the 3rd Rep established were aimed at freeing people's mind from the influence of said institution.)

Now let's move on. For the second time, you are claiming that the "new left" (whatever this might be) is the main driving force to the merchandization of society. Please let me laugh. And how so exactly ? I'm still trying to understand how legalizing gay marriage will make the society more consumerist... You are bringing back a good old talking point of the pseudo-"social right", which basically blames every bad aspect of modern society on the development of permissivenes, moral relativism bla bla bla... and ends up with nostalgia of the good old time when people were good and not greedy and believed in God and worked at the countryside and everything was simple and good. This is the most irrational, reactionary and dangerous rhetoric that has even existed in the political discourse. What you are doing here is assimilating progress and development with its negative consequences, which, of course, are part of it, but can be corrected if people look for practical solutions instead of praising the good old time.

These solutions are those social-democracy has been implementing since the end of WW2. It's redistribution, aimed at making everybody free from basic needs, allowing people to follow their own way, without being predisposed by their social background and creating ties between individuals which are not based on common beliefs like in traditional societies, or on research of private interest like in deregulated capitalism, but on solidarity and human dignity. It's regulation, when private businesses are allowed to seek profits as long as their research doesn't go against general interest by causing negative externalities. It's public services, which treat everybody equally and perform tasks profitable to everybody regardless of whether they are profitable to themselves. Social democracy works, where it has been correctly implemented. It has taken million of people out of poverty, has shaped middle-class societies and made people happier, freer, smarter and more civilized. In one word : more human.

So, you think modern left caused the boom of unregulated, deshumanized, financial capitalism ? Well, let's see. Which political force has, since the 1980s, constantly worked at dismantling the welfare state ? Which political force has, since the 1980s, imposed the idea that "there is no society, but only individuals" ? Which political force has, since the 1980s, stressed on the fact private, profit-oriented investment does everything better than public services ? Which political force has, since the 1980s, abolished every single rule that could prevent finance from growing excessively to the point when it has become a threat to the world's stability ? Which political force has, since the 1980s, made sure individuals would be alone to face the market, with nothing to sustain them or to keep the market on check ? It is, of course, the neoliberal right. The neoliberal is the most regressive force humanity has seen since the counter-revolution in the XIXth century. The left has its share of responsibility (in particular its third-way fashion), but only for letting neoliberalism do. For withdrawing from the ideological fight.

So that's why I don't get it. From what I gather, your stances are a succession of non-sequiturs and pretexts. They are ludicrous even when taken in detail. "genetic manipulations" ? Yeah, sure, thank neoliberals for deregulating agrobusiness and allow monsters like Monsanto to sell whatever they want without even knowing what their potential effect will be. "merchandization of the human body" ? Wait, wasn't your friend Boutin who wanted to reopen brothels ? "euthanasia like the 1930s Sweden" ? Sure, allowing someone to commit suicide is the same as killing him. "we'll soon be forbidden to keep our children at home" ? Hum, yeah, sure. The examples could be multiplied infinitely.

Well, I gave you the longer version. This is why I don't f-ing get it. So, for God's (yeah, that annoying fellow) sake, I hope you'll have the courage to read though all this and enlighten me if there's something I haven't understood. Since I know you, I know you are an intelligent fellow, yet the way you think, when it comes to ideology, is just... absurd. Utterly absurd. I'd really be thankful if you could give me some more explanations.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 14, 2012, 02:19:36 PM
Thanks, Antonio, for your opinion here. It makes a young guy believe in youth ^^


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 14, 2012, 02:31:01 PM
The older I grow, the more Catholic I am.
I'm really disgusted by the leftist paradigm of medias and of teachers. I deeply believe that this modern or post-modern left, having destroyed the old 3rd Republic school, is the best ally of this mass-consumption capitalism which is only looking for stupid consumers.
I deeply believe that we are already in a society of genetic manipulations, of merchandization of the human body, of "good old" euthanasia like the 1930s Sweden, that we'll soon be forbidden to keep our children at home.
I deeply believe that all these so-called social advances are only the other face of our deep moral decline due to mass capitalism. It's only two sides of materialism.

OK, let me be as short as I can :

I. Don't. Get it.
Not that I agree with all of the rest, but the teachers part is the only part I "don't get".
But I wouldn't have expected you to get much of it...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 14, 2012, 02:53:53 PM
But I wouldn't have expected you to get much of it...

Why, if I may ask ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 14, 2012, 03:00:42 PM
Because it's an attack on a specific and rather new subspecies of moderate leftism that you very much help epitomize?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 14, 2012, 03:08:37 PM
Because it's an attack on a specific and rather new subspecies of moderate leftism that you very much help epitomize?

I think nobody in the political mainstream (outside France and maybe the scandinavians) would call me a moderate. And I also consider myself to be a pretty old-styled leftist.

Now please tell me in which way my political views lead to the demise of the educational system and the trumph of consumerist capitalism. Also, you might address my long answer if you prefer.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Iannis on February 15, 2012, 06:34:52 AM
The older I grow, the more Catholic I am.
I'm really disgusted by the leftist paradigm of medias and of teachers. I deeply believe that this modern or post-modern left, having destroyed the old 3rd Republic school, is the best ally of this mass-consumption capitalism which is only looking for stupid consumers.
I deeply believe that we are already in a society of genetic manipulations, of merchandization of the human body, of "good old" euthanasia like the 1930s Sweden, that we'll soon be forbidden to keep our children at home.
I deeply believe that all these so-called social advances are only the other face of our deep moral decline due to mass capitalism. It's only two sides of materialism.

OK, let me be as short as I can :

I. Don't. Get it.



It's very simple in my opinion:

 State-interventionist approach to people needs, basically poor people, is a failure, especially in big not efficient  countries, basicaly everywhere but small scandinavian countries, it's not efficient firstly ideally because it deresponsabilize the family and the individuals, weakening the social connections, the solidarity among individuals or families, or through NGOs etc, and the civil society, which are the structures that are the more naturally fitted to the needs of poor people. I think that a public functionaire will never be more efficient than the family or the neighbour or an association made by volunteer who have a REAL interest on the problem they face and try to resolve. It's simple, we see how in continental Europe the level of voluntary funding of charity isititutions is very low, people don't feel responsible for the poor, they rely totally on the State, they even find a shame to pay more than 5% of their income for personal education or health, giving all the responsibility to the inefficient State sector.
The high level of taxation needed for this system (started to help just the poorest without frinds and family and latere degenerated) is not only unequal (since basically everything is "free", so even rich people don't pay for a surgery operation), and is diseducative ,since people don't understand the real cost of what they use, like education, they are not ready to make donations for reasearch, it's all "up to the State", and private companies and multinational become the "evil" and young people don't invest in their own education enrolling in unuseful faculties, given they pay a only a very small part of this education.
It is also a damage, because it destroys the competitiveness of the economy, and we see it in Italy and France, and that's why Hollande's intention to rais taxes on the only possible source of productivity, the big companies, is really tragic.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 15, 2012, 07:02:42 AM
Bâârfff.... ;D
Too lazy (and busy) to answer now. And I shouldn't have let my sadness reach this forum (again): each time, it's a mistake, because I want to write quickly, just let out some angry notations (not especially designed to be coherent...) and my English is bad :P

Anyway, just one thing: I make a difference between leftist governments and leftist ideas. On education, even Peyrefitte in 1968-69 (yes, this Peyrefitte) and of course VGE in 74-81 had leftist ideas. So, that's not just a question of political parties (on education, I prefer Chevènement than Chatel, without any doubt).

And just another one: I don't compare current plans for euthanasia of old/sick people and Swedish euthanasia in the 1930s, but the latter and the new "choices" offered to future parents and the fact that medical employees of some labs are those who pick which child will be born... For me, it's frightening. And, still, it's something both capitalists (because there is money and because controlling birth is good as "time is money") and leftists (because each human being is now a little God) agree on.



In real news, Hervé Morin will probably announce that he gives up tomorrow.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 15, 2012, 08:54:42 AM
In real news, Hervé Morin will probably announce that he gives up tomorrow.

The only candidate I could support non-ironically? If Nihous doesn't run, I guess I'll be forced to vote Melenchon.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 15, 2012, 09:34:03 AM
And I also consider myself to be a pretty old-styled leftist.

Really?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 15, 2012, 11:48:25 AM
In real news, Hervé Morin will probably announce that he gives up tomorrow.

The only candidate I could support non-ironically? If Nihous doesn't run, I guess I'll be forced to vote Melenchon.

Mélenchon is only a very pale imitation of Great Georges ;D.

I don't know if Nihous is really serious in his quest of the 500 signatures. We'll see, but it seems harder than expected for him.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 15, 2012, 11:56:35 AM
Well, if France is like Quebec, both the left and the rght destroyed the education system.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 15, 2012, 03:09:48 PM
BREAKING SARKOZY IS CANDIDATE!! BREAKING


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 15, 2012, 03:46:13 PM
Now it begins.

Now polls will begin to be relevant and worth watching.

Now the party will begin to be over for Hollande.

Now people who could hide the love fest of polls will have to show who they actually are too.

Actual campaign will begin.

Actual fights will begin.



I would maintain all what I said one year ago, if Sarkozy kept his campaigning skills and if there effectively is a big abstention, he can really do it.

If he doesn't succeed to be as good as he could be, and if anti-Sarkozism is so big that it would make more people voting against him than abstaining, then he can lose.

The only poll that I found worth watching was a few days ago, it was about the reasons why people would vote for Hollande, about 66% of them said the reason of their vote was against Sarkozy. Which shows what's remains pretty obvious since then, Hollande doesn't raise much adhesion, and all his campaigns have been like that, being the nice calm smiling guy doing witty jokes, waiting people to vote for him. With the actual campaign beginning, he will now have to face 2 big adversaries, Mélenchon on his left, Sarkozy on his right. I'd doubt he could continue to be the waiting guy during a long time.

I would also maintain what I said one year ago about Mélenchon and Le Pen. The latter was really a total journalistic excitation, no way she does the 2nd run, to be honnest she managed to pretty well last high, and she could even make a better campaign than what I expected, but still, she's too empty to manage something enormous.

Mélenchon on the other hand is totally fit for such an election, which is a big fight of personalities overall. He has a very constructed and solid discourse. He is, by far, or along with Sarkozy, the most charismatic man, he benefits of the fact that the 2 classical figureheads of the French far-left, Laguillier and Besancenot, are no more here, and their substitutes are almost invisible. Unlike Marine Le Pen, he didn't have all journalists arround him saying 'that could be the huge surprise!!' for months and months, then he could benefited of a freshness effect, to become an actual surprise, and also, in the campaign, he could very well slap Marine Le Pen. This plus the fact that the current context gives more credibility to what he says, with a Hollande that can easily appear as a smiling do nothing mild guy, maybe he wouldn't do the 2nd run, but he could really make a coup, and then breaking this over annoying PS for the future.

Bayrou? GO IN BEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARN. May he opens a choir with Jean de Lassalle, and eventually Douste, they could also open an orange beret factory, so that he could rpoudly do some 'Made in France'. May he does anything but stops politics, he would be more useful writing books, actually. That being said, he does what he always did, anti-Sarkozism, then maybe he could contribute to make Sarkozy lose if it works.

So far anti-Sarkozim is the main thing all the contenders but Mélenchon mainly did. It's a bit short to win...

Also, the 'permanent referendum' that Sarkozy proposes can be a winning strategy, French like referendum, it's always appealing.

He wasn't bad on TV tonight actually. Can't wait to see how he could handle the campaign.

If he wins, it would confirm what I tend to think for a while, all the European periphery may very well change, but the core, the axis, France-Germany, may as well stay stable. I also tend to think that from Greece to France, in all countries in which people have to swallow 'rigor', people would still be ready to accept it nowadays, the big time for our societies would be 2016-2017, when after that people did a lot of sacrifices to please markets, they don't see results.

In short, Mélenchon 2012? No. Mélenchon-Montebourg 2017? Beware!

And in case Hollande wins, that would work too, they would show they are as pointless and inefficient at taking the major challenges we are facing.

Well, yeah, no matter who wins, all those stuffs mainly remain a show, a show that would show that demos will have to find new ways to have kratos on their lives...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 15, 2012, 10:01:37 PM
And here's one Twitter account that I won't be following: https://twitter.com/#!/NicolasSarkozy

Is he really using "A Strong France" as a slogan? Talk about original...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 15, 2012, 10:10:38 PM
And here's one Twitter account that I won't be following: https://twitter.com/#!/NicolasSarkozy

Is he really using "A Strong France" as a slogan? Talk about original...

"My opponent has never run anything except his parliamentary office" would be another good slogan...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 15, 2012, 10:13:39 PM
And here's one Twitter account that I won't be following: https://twitter.com/#!/NicolasSarkozy

Is he really using "A Strong France" as a slogan? Talk about original...

"My opponent has never run anything except his parliamentary office" would be another good slogan...

Well, it worked well enough for John McCain.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 15, 2012, 11:03:36 PM
And here's one Twitter account that I won't be following: https://twitter.com/#!/NicolasSarkozy

Is he really using "A Strong France" as a slogan? Talk about original...

"My opponent has never run anything except his parliamentary office" would be another good slogan...

Well, he ran the Socialist Party for more than 10 years...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on February 16, 2012, 02:32:32 AM
If for whatever reason Le Pen doesn't get the necessary signatures to qualify, would Mélenchon take away most of her support since they're both fighting for the same working class section of the electorate?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 16, 2012, 08:32:42 AM
If for whatever reason Le Pen doesn't get the necessary signatures to qualify, would Mélenchon take away most of her support since they're both fighting for the same working class section of the electorate?

Mélenchon's electorate is hardly heavily working-class. Besides, the type of working-class attracted to Mélenchon has, in general, little in common politically with those attracted to Le Pen (and vice versa).

Also,

()

Giscard's 1981 slogan vs.

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 16, 2012, 09:20:06 AM
Doesn't Giscard lost that year?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on February 16, 2012, 10:07:16 AM
(yes he lose)


MLP battle, part II.

Some secret polls, as said the newspaper Marianne and some commentators, give MLP and Nicolas Ier equal at 22%

So, UMP is using is power to afraiding mayors wich could give their approve to MLP candidature.

But, le canard enchainé, the so-called "satiric" newspaper (and, for real, public office of intelligence service, FBI-like) said that Socialist Party is helping MLP to have the signatures (?) she need.

The only "chance" for MLP to don't be candidate is this : she present her 500/600 signs to the constitutionnal court, but, at the last moment, some of the mayors said "no".
So, she had no time to have others signatures, and can be candidate.


(sorry for my english)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on February 16, 2012, 10:46:55 AM
And here's one Twitter account that I won't be following: https://twitter.com/#!/NicolasSarkozy

Is he really using "A Strong France" as a slogan? Talk about original...

"My opponent has never run anything except his parliamentary office" would be another good slogan...

Well, he ran the Socialist Party for more than 10 years...

Considering it's the Socialist Party of France I'm not sure how running it is really a merit.



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 16, 2012, 10:54:18 AM
All right, having been called out by several people has made it hard for me to reply in time, but here is it, for Iannis, Fabien and Al.


State-interventionist approach to people needs, basically poor people, is a failure, especially in big not efficient  countries, basicaly everywhere but small scandinavian countries

Why would it work in the scandinavians and fail elsewhere ? Considering the philosophical argument you develop later, the size of a country should be irrelevant to its functioning.

Of course, the reason why it works better in the scandinavians is because these countries are the only ones that have followed social-democratic principles to their full extent, while other countries had their welfare systems impeded by old corporatist/familialist structures, by lack of civism or by an ideological hegemony of classical liberalism.

It is also ludicrous to say welfare state has "failed" outside the scandinavians. Of course it hasn't worked as well as in Sweden or Norway, but it's not a case if the golden age of welfare-state (1945-1975) was also the age of economic prosperity. It's not a case if poverty was almost eradicated in those countries at that time. Nor it is a case if the countries with the highest level of social protection have lower poverty rates, more middle classes, better living conditions, better perceptions of well-being.


Quote
it's not efficient firstly ideally because it deresponsabilize the family and the individuals, weakening the social connections, the solidarity among individuals or families, or through NGOs etc, and the civil society, which are the structures that are the more naturally fitted to the needs of poor people.


Welfare State obviously doesn't weaken social connections. To the contrary, where do you find broken social links ? Where people are left to their own devices. How will families be "responsabilized" if lone mothers aren't even able to feed their own children ? The idea that any social issue could be fixed only by individual action simply doesn't stand to facts. As for NGOs, come on : seriously ? Isn't it obvious that NGOs intervene where there's something wrong in a society to begin with ? They don't fix the problem, simply do their possible to alleviate its gravest symptoms.


Quote
I think that a public functionaire will never be more efficient than the family or the neighbour or an association made by volunteer who have a REAL interest on the problem they face and try to resolve.

Well, of course you can't ask every civil servant to be perfectly knowledgeable about a particular situation, or as compassionate as you would like him to be. On the other hand, "associations" and "neighbours" are unable to take the problem at its root. Yes, they'll give an occasional help in the most desperate situations, and then what ? Is that sufficient for a no-income unemployed to find his job and get back a normal life ? It just doesn't work that way, as a quick look at history and/or geography would immediately tells you. "Associations" and "neighbours" don't change the society, they can't attack the mechanisms that originate poverty at their core.


Quote
It's simple, we see how in continental Europe the level of voluntary funding of charity isititutions is very low, people don't feel responsible for the poor, they rely totally on the State

Yeah, well, of course. Because continental Europe doesn't need charities as much as America does, due to the inability of its State to solve the structural problem of poverty. See above.



Quote
they even find a shame to pay more than 5% of their income for personal education or health, giving all the responsibility to the inefficient State sector.

Well yes, some people think education and health are public goods which should be kept outside of the market's realm. Some people think health and education are human rights, whose access shouldn't be limited by income. Some people realize that the pursuit of private interests just isn't acceptable when things as important as health and education are at stake. As for the "inefficiency" of government and the superiority of private sector, facts deny it everyday. Just take a look at the awful mess of America's health system.


Quote
The high level of taxation needed for this system (started to help just the poorest without frinds and family and latere degenerated) is not only unequal (since basically everything is "free", so even rich people don't pay for a surgery operation)

Yes, in an universalistic welfare state health and education are free, regardless of your income. Income-testing denaturates the welfare State, as it makes it a residual system aimed at correcting the worst effects of market rather than a process of social transformation. If, instead, the same rights are given to anybody, not only everybody, poor comprised, benefits more from them, but they are also more popular because the middle-classes are also included.

As for it being unequal, of course it isn't as long as it is funded on progressive taxation. Unfortunately, the neoliberal right has kept pushing for tax cut and managed to impose their anti-tax ideology, making us forget the fundamental truth that taxes are nothing but the instrument to build a fair society.


Quote
and is diseducative ,since people don't understand the real cost of what they use, like education, they are not ready to make donations for reasearch, it's all "up to the State", and private companies and multinational become the "evil" and young people don't invest in their own education enrolling in unuseful faculties, given they pay a only a very small part of this education.

Yeah, it is so good when poor people know the real cost of education - because they can't afford it. As for the rich, they're rich enough not to care about this cost anyways. So yeah, let's "educate" people at the toughness and unfairness of life, rather than making life less tough and fairer !

Meanwhile, not having to care for education or health allows middle classes to spare more, to invest more, thus helping them climbing the social ladder if they are motivated enough. And cheap studies means that not only those whose parents are rich can afford a high quality education.


Quote
It is also a damage, because it destroys the competitiveness of the economy, and we see it in Italy and France, and that's why Hollande's intention to rais taxes on the only possible source of productivity, the big companies, is really tragic.

The big companies are the "only possible source of productivity" ? How weird. I'd always thought that the only possible source of productivity were, you know, people who actually produce. Corporation of course contribute to production, but it is absurd to say they are the producers.

What I do find tragic, is the silly neoliberal dogma, the idea that everything goes fine when there are no taxes and businesses are free to do whatever they want. This has been proven wrong thousands of times in the history of humanity, yet people still buy in the "laisser faire" rhetoric and worship the Great Self-Regulatory Market.


And anyways all this is besides the point, so please let me come back on my argument with Fabien.

Anyway, just one thing: I make a difference between leftist governments and leftist ideas. On education, even Peyrefitte in 1968-69 (yes, this Peyrefitte) and of course VGE in 74-81 had leftist ideas. So, that's not just a question of political parties (on education, I prefer Chevènement than Chatel, without any doubt).

Why exactly would you call this policies left-wing ? I personally don't see what's so inherently leftist about spurning the "culture générale", making the school a mere preparation to professional career, disemphasizing the teaching of civism, etc. If your issue is instead about stuff like having uniforms, hitting bad pupils with rulers etc, then we of course disagree.

And anyways, if the left and right have the same policies on this topic, why prefering one over another ? What do you fear so much about Hollande's next education minister which would be worse than Chatel's policies ?


Quote
And just another one: I don't compare current plans for euthanasia of old/sick people and Swedish euthanasia in the 1930s, but the latter and the new "choices" offered to future parents and the fact that medical employees of some labs are those who pick which child will be born... For me, it's frightening. And, still, it's something both capitalists (because there is money and because controlling birth is good as "time is money") and leftists (because each human being is now a little God) agree on.

OK. I don't really have a precise idea on this issue (because indeed, it's something pretty new and which doesn't have yet taken important proportion) but I would tend to share your concerns. As a left-winger, I tend to think regulation is necessary in order to avoid derives. So, again, I don't see what you fear so much about the left on these issues. Do they have made of genetic selection a crucial campaign theme so far ? If it's the case, I must have missed it...

The points when left-wing progressivism and "catho-tradis" disagree (apart from the complex issue of abortion) are those where the catholic position defies any rationality, like gay marriage or stem cell research.



Yes, really. I'm not exactly a fan of Third Way politics and one of my main concern is restoring the Welfare State as it was in its glory days, the 1960-70s. My adhesion to social-democracy and rejection of socialism has nothing to do with the "new left" rhetoric, because the "new left" is far to the right of real social-democracy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 16, 2012, 10:55:45 AM

I think that's what Gaël was implying. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 16, 2012, 11:04:47 AM
Here are the graphs based on Fabien's tracker, if someone still cares.

()

()

If Sarkozy can't get above 45% within one month, he's most probably screwed.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on February 16, 2012, 02:45:27 PM

Yes, really. I'm not exactly a fan of Third Way politics and one of my main concern is restoring the Welfare State as it was in its glory days, the 1960-70s. My adhesion to social-democracy and rejection of socialism has nothing to do with the "new left" rhetoric, because the "new left" is far to the right of real social-democracy.

Aren't you conflating two different movements here? The historical New Left and the Third-Way/"modernisers" that've co-opted European social democratic/labour parties?

But beyond that, I didn't find much to disagree with in your post.

Good to see Melenchon returning slowly to a respectable number.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 16, 2012, 02:58:40 PM
Sarkozy hold his 1st meeting.

The slap machine began, and on the tough force since the very 1st round.

When one says to the English press that one is liberal and when one says to the French that the enemy is Finance, one LIES, one lies morning and evening.

Good one, and the PS is back to his old schizophrenia with that. The words 'English' and 'liberal' are quite crippling. He also amongst other things well pointed out the messy and petty electoral agreements between PS and Greens.

Everything is back, tough clear slaps, national lyrism, easy to get concepts. And he pushes a maximum on the referendum strategy. 'If social corpses block politics then I'll give all power to the PEOPLE to decide for himself, because the PEOPLE knows very well what is good for them or not, there shouldn't be any barriers between the power and THE PEOPLE.'

The meeting was sober in its design, the 1st big stuff would be in Marseille on Sunday, but still, at the end of that one you had the exciting crowds chanting 'NICOLAS! NICOLAS! NICOLAS!'...'SARKO! SARKO! SARKO!'. Hollande never had such stuffs so far. Sarkozy will have to confirm if his skills are back or not during this meeting. So far so good.

Hollande was then speaking on TF1 at 20h, like Sarkozy did yesterday, one hour after this meeting. So far he doesn't answer so bad, but he remains very on the defensive, and not clear and messy to expose his ideas, while Sarkozy knows how to find clear lines.

Can't wait to see Mélenchon entering in the actual campaign now, apparently Le Pen is less comfortable for it, she just refused a debate on France2 with him. Not good for her to flee... I think she'll get her sigs, no matter it would be with some help or not, she would be more dangerous outside of the game than inside I'd think, or at least the hypothesis of this would be considered more hazardous by the Right, and the Left would prefer having her to harm Sarkozy.

I hope Dupont-Aignan and Nihous will have their sigs too, that would be less % for Marine Le Pen.

Sarkozy 10,5 millions people audience yesterday on TV, quite big, but lol, DSK had done 14 millions at the same place to explain himself on his 'New-York adventure'. Would be interesting to know Hollande's audience.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 16, 2012, 03:18:37 PM
Here are the graphs based on Fabien's tracker, if someone still cares.

()

()

If Sarkozy can't get above 45% within one month, he's most probably screwed.

Lately, there is a symetry emerging between Hollande and Bayrou, and between Sarkozy and Le Pen.
I don't think it's only visual.
Though, of course, electors are not switching directly from one to another.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 16, 2012, 03:31:36 PM
Just a comment on productivity causd by big businesses.

It's wrong. In Canada, I remember reading than 70% of the GNP is created by small businesses.

Small businesses are way more productive than the big ones.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 16, 2012, 03:37:54 PM

Yes, really. I'm not exactly a fan of Third Way politics and one of my main concern is restoring the Welfare State as it was in its glory days, the 1960-70s. My adhesion to social-democracy and rejection of socialism has nothing to do with the "new left" rhetoric, because the "new left" is far to the right of real social-democracy.

Aren't you conflating two different movements here? The historical New Left and the Third-Way/"modernisers" that've co-opted European social democratic/labour parties?

But beyond that, I didn't find much to disagree with in your post.

Good to see Melenchon returning slowly to a respectable number.

I think I might have used the term "new left" improperly, in that case. I was still refered to the "Third-Way/Neue Mitte/Modernizer" stream.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 16, 2012, 03:42:41 PM
Just a comment on productivity causd by big businesses.

It's wrong. In Canada, I remember reading than 70% of the GNP is created by small businesses.

Small businesses are way more productive than the big ones.

That's one of the big argument of this campaign, France is a model of economy which enjoys very big companies, and thus has several very big worldwide ones, but their international dimensions precisely make a lot of jobs internationally and not necessarily in France, then both PS and UMP are fighting to say 'I'll be the one who will develop PME more!' (PME being the French acronym for small business, small and middle business to be precise). And both of them basing themselves on German economical results to say 'thats' the way Germany succeeded to be economical champion', and then the fight becomes, amongst other things, who will be the best at copying the German economical model. It was at least the case so far, I'd be surprised Sarkozy pushes too much in this direction, a bit of Germany can fine to be elected (recent polls said that 82% of French had a good opinion of Germans, well, it was ordered by the German embassy in Paris though), but too much Germany wouldn't be much sexy, he planed to invite Merkel during his campaign though.

That being said, 10 years ago, the 1st European economical power was France, and it had the same economical model than now, Germany became the 1st European economical power after Schroeder screwed social rights in his country, and well, the rise of China which would have bought a lot of big cars and of industrial machines would have helped too.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on February 16, 2012, 04:50:30 PM


Can't wait to see Mélenchon entering in the actual campaign now, apparently Le Pen is less comfortable for it, she just refused a debate on France2 with him. Not good for her to flee...


I think tactically, she wants to debate with a PS or UMP leader. melanchon is not boxing in the same category (hum...i'm afraid this expression was not american, but word-to-word translation^^)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 16, 2012, 08:33:28 PM
Make your own France Forte poster (http://www.mafranceforte.com/generateur)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Iannis on February 17, 2012, 02:06:10 PM
@ Antonio V, I would like to know why ishoud be "human right" to study sociology paying just the 5% of the family income and not, let's say, 15%. It's so nice to be so romantic and rhetoric unless we face the daily facts and we come down to the earth and we see so many young people that spending so little in university are not incentivated at all to learn some job unless they are forced at the end of a likely unuseful faculty, they are not incentivated to study something useful (i.e. with some loans they have to repay with work) or to graduate fast, in a word they are not incentivated to become productive for themselves and moreover for the society, for the poor people. Any money wasted in low university fees, in the total coverage of health system in Italy and France are money lost for poor people, in many ways: it's quite ironic that the surgery of a rich man is payed in a big part by the taxes of people muche poorer than him. All the money not spent by high middle income families in instruction (let's say by two affluent public servants who earn together more than 50000€ per year and spende just 1500 for the son's university, probably less than for holidays) are money lost for more reasearch and for more scolarships.
That's why I say that present welfare state has gone too far. We started paying the tuition for primary school for peasant's sons, and ended up paying 70% of the cost of studies for a affluent history student at university. Something has gone wrong, and we see it from the fact tha in Italy and France, taxes on companies are higher than in sweden, I say Sweden, not Ireland.
And you doubt that only companies with a certain number of emplyoyees are productive? You know whats' "economy of scale"? Do you think that a small company of 40 employees can be competitive in China, and make research and development? That it can have so muche reserves of money to spend for some investment that will be effective only after some years?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 17, 2012, 02:55:09 PM
Make your own France Forte poster (http://www.mafranceforte.com/generateur)

Awesome tool. :D

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 17, 2012, 03:06:57 PM
Awwwwww (http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xos93z_sarkozy-baiser-vole_news)

People get crazy about that, Libération, Le Nouvel Obs, Le Télégramme de Brest, for those I heard of, everybody analyzing the stuff, 'is it tactic?? is it not?? is the fact it's been posted on a Russian site first a strategy?? blahblahblah'.

Ah and, on the very night of the publication of Sarkozy campaign poster you might have seen all the parodies of it. But who cares about Hollande poster?? I've only quickly seen it once on itélé.

Anything Sarkozy does makes people crazy...



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 17, 2012, 03:25:47 PM
To be fair:

()

I wonder which one is worse. Very Hollande, nothing great, nothing awful, middle. That being said, I don't know if that will be the definite poster.

Ah, and, a guy on Internet pointed out that the sea behind Sarkozy on his poster, comes from a pic from a pics bank, and it's a pic of...Aegean Sea. ^^


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 17, 2012, 04:55:32 PM
Neither of them beat this monstrocity.

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 17, 2012, 05:08:14 PM
()

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 17, 2012, 05:10:06 PM
I just heard Le Pen bitched the fact it was a Greek sea on Sarkozy's poster the 20h of TF1 tonight.

She should pay attention, a pic of some of her posters that showed a tramp sleeping on the floor, and accusing Sarkozy of being responsible of this, also comes from a pics bank, and is in fact some American actor doing it ^^.

Mayas is fancy. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on February 17, 2012, 08:33:47 PM
()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on February 18, 2012, 02:39:43 AM

Cameron's posters are always too busy, and don't succinctly express his policies.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 18, 2012, 05:40:58 AM
A last one :

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 18, 2012, 07:19:26 AM
Let's see what I can do with my limited French knowledge:

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 18, 2012, 08:17:19 AM
Is this a reference to something ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 18, 2012, 08:20:08 AM

It's part of this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sorcerer%27s_Apprentice


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 18, 2012, 08:27:45 AM

It's part of this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sorcerer%27s_Apprentice

Oh, I see. Good one. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 18, 2012, 09:50:44 AM
()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 18, 2012, 10:06:06 AM

Can't see it. ???


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 18, 2012, 10:24:23 AM
Ugh, they probably found my image too tasteless. Here it is.



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 18, 2012, 11:25:56 AM

Hah ! Un grand classique, pour la France éternelle. ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 18, 2012, 01:48:23 PM

Portray of the future of Guyanne's seaside?

Thankfully all this very bad clownerie about xenophobia and inefficient securitarism will stop or go lower after this election, either he loses and it stops, either he gets elected and he won't have to run through this as much as now since he won't have to run for reelection. F***, we could still have Coppé maintaining the flame though...

I can only hope there won't be any major riots in some rough districts before the elections, because then, it could go quite tough...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 19, 2012, 05:39:44 PM
Marine on Sarko: "La France Morte".


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 20, 2012, 05:17:08 PM
I'm not the poll guy, but Ifop's tracker today shows the narrowest first-round gap:

Hollande 29% (-0.5)
Sarko 27% (+1)
Marion 17.5% (+0.5)
Bayrou 11% (-1)
Melenchon 9% (+0.5)
Joly 2.5% (nc)
Villepin 2% (-0.5)

The runoff gap remains 56-44. It has barely moved up or down since they started this tracker.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 20, 2012, 06:53:08 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #42 - 20 February 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   



      

Hollande   30,56
Sarkozy   25,22
Le Pen   17,13
Bayrou   12,42
Mélenchon   8,15
Joly   2,82
Villepin   1,59
(Morin)   0,12
Lepage   0,43
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
(Boutin)   0,10
Nihous   0,17
Arthaud   0,39
Poutou   0,25
(Chevènement)   0,04
Cheminade   0,00

Hollande   57,20
Sarkozy   42,80

See my blog for a recent graph of IFOP daily poll.
There is now a symetry between Bayrou and Hollande, and between Sarkozy and Le Pen (and even Joly and Mélenchon...).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 20, 2012, 07:21:51 PM
I'm not the poll guy, but Ifop's tracker today shows the narrowest first-round gap:

Hollande 29% (-0.5)
Sarko 27% (+1)
Marion 17.5% (+0.5)
Bayrou 11% (-1)
Melenchon 9% (+0.5)
Joly 2.5% (nc)
Villepin 2% (-0.5)

The runoff gap remains 56-44. It has barely moved up or down since they started this tracker.

Sarko's getting a bump with the spotlight having been on him for the past few days. To be expected.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Andrea on February 21, 2012, 06:14:44 AM
Sarkozy 10,5 millions people audience yesterday on TV, quite big, but lol, DSK had done 14 millions at the same place to explain himself on his 'New-York adventure'. Would be interesting to know Hollande's audience.

According to Le Figaro, Hollande's interview the following day got 6.4 million viewers.
Meanwhile TF1's new political show got their worst prime time market share since 1991: just 2.2m people (8.9% market share) watched Bayrou and Joly last night.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 21, 2012, 08:36:00 AM
Beware, I've updated the tracker, because of an IPSOS poll published very late yesterday (in fact, it was in the medias only this morning) that wasn't included.
Done, with a spread between 0 and 0.1 :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 21, 2012, 02:07:14 PM
Sarkozy 10,5 millions people audience yesterday on TV, quite big, but lol, DSK had done 14 millions at the same place to explain himself on his 'New-York adventure'. Would be interesting to know Hollande's audience.

According to Le Figaro, Hollande's interview the following day got 6.4 million viewers.
Meanwhile TF1's new political show got their worst prime time market share since 1991: just 2.2m people (8.9% market share) watched Bayrou and Joly last night.

Thank you, I was thinking about checking but hadn't done. As for the other audience, normal, look at the candidates.

Ah, and, about Sarkozy's meeting in Marseille:

Sarkozy is in dah place.

Goes tougher and tougher against Hollande. As one of the political analyst says, I can't remind the words have already been that violent under the Vth. I wonder if it could last this way 2 months, Hollande will have to find a new behavior anyhow, being the cute avoiding guy might not be enough. Especially if the main tactic remains 'this is a referendum against Sarkozy', what a high esteem of his project, and 'you have a bad assessment!' that will be easily wiped out by Sarkozy with 'seen there has been the biggest crisis since WW2? are you being serious?'. But apparently Socialistes can't help acting dumb, same for Borloo affair, they spent the whole day fighting harsh against...rumors, congrats.

They definitely renounced about thinking before opening their mouthes?

So far they are stuck in anti-Sarkozism and reciting boring technical measures, yay.

Good one of Sarkozy's meeting:

Where's the truth when you act like Thatcher in London, and like Mitterand in Paris?

Oh also Sarkozy continues more than ever to push toward a totally plebicitary regime with his referendums stuff (and the only one to underline it is Mélenchon), he is going to push the logic of the Vth Republic to the overdose, which would thankfully in the end help to get rid of it later.

Marine Le Pen is really turning more and more radical, if only in her attitude, and her 'IdF meat is all halal!!' blatant attempt at twisting reality won't help her I think. Having a more and more over nervous and scary face in interviews and meetings is really unappealing. That's actually the most scary looking politician I can remind of since that guy that excited Germany several decades ago, even those of Lega Norde don't look that aggressive but merely dumb when they make their excited downright racist speeches.

Meanwhile, today, Sarkozy looks cool and even bashed Hollande on 'what? you don't accept criticism? you shouldn't run then...'.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on February 21, 2012, 10:36:57 PM
Make your own France Forte poster (http://www.mafranceforte.com/generateur)

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 22, 2012, 05:26:53 PM
BREAKING !

Frédéric Nihous has dropped his bid for the presidency.
He has rallied Sarkozy.

This will probably "free" some mayors, who will be able to sign for Le Pen or Dupont-Aignan.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on February 22, 2012, 07:15:16 PM
BREAKING !

Frédéric Nihous has dropped his bid for the presidency.
He has rallied Sarkozy.

This will probably "free" some mayors, who will be able to sign for Le Pen or Dupont-Aignan.

Will he even give Sarkozy any boost in the polls? He's polling pretty far behind.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 23, 2012, 03:53:12 AM
BREAKING !

Frédéric Nihous has dropped his bid for the presidency.
He has rallied Sarkozy.

This will probably "free" some mayors, who will be able to sign for Le Pen or Dupont-Aignan.

Will he even give Sarkozy any boost in the polls? He's polling pretty far behind.

It was an ironical post :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 23, 2012, 04:20:35 AM
LOL@Sarko. He will end up as the only candidate of the right, get a half-decent score but have no room to grow on second round.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 23, 2012, 10:22:30 AM
Sarkozy will be re-elected.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 23, 2012, 10:25:58 AM

I hope this post will be quoted in your sig after may 6. If it's not, I'll take care of it. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 23, 2012, 10:31:33 AM

I hope this post will be quoted in your sig after may 6. If it's not, I'll take care of it. ;)

I've said it before elsewhere. I'm fully aware it will make its way into several signatures if he doesn't win.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: tpfkaw on February 23, 2012, 10:38:01 AM
I hope Hollande wins, given Sarkozy's a creep and turning France into the next Italy might finally achieve some success in discrediting leftist economics over there.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 23, 2012, 01:35:42 PM
I hope Hollande wins, given Sarkozy's a creep and turning France into the next Italy might finally achieve some success in discrediting leftist economics over there.

Hollande probably won't govern particularly from the left. I can't imagine him being in any sort of position to unyoke the Franco-German arrangement.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: tpfkaw on February 23, 2012, 01:41:51 PM
I hope Hollande wins, given Sarkozy's a creep and turning France into the next Italy might finally achieve some success in discrediting leftist economics over there.

Hollande probably won't govern particularly from the left. I can't imagine him being in any sort of position to unyoke the Franco-German arrangement.

Given that his whole platform is based on reversing (and beyond) all of Sarkozy's cuts at the same time as France is being downgraded, France would risk default upon his election (assuming he's being honest about his platform).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 23, 2012, 01:46:03 PM
I hope Hollande wins, given Sarkozy's a creep and turning France into the next Italy might finally achieve some success in discrediting leftist economics over there.

Hollande probably won't govern particularly from the left. I can't imagine him being in any sort of position to unyoke the Franco-German arrangement.

Given that his whole platform is based on reversing (and beyond) all of Sarkozy's cuts at the same time as France is being downgraded, France would risk default upon his election (assuming he's being honest about his platform).

Reversing (and beyond) Sarkozy's inane tax cuts which benefit the wealthier and do nothing for the economy at the same time as France is being downgraded seems a pretty sound policy to me.

Unfortunately, it's doubtful Hollande will go as far. One can still hope, though.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 23, 2012, 01:49:10 PM
You clearly need to read-up on French political history if you think the platform of the left is a guide to what the left in power does. Guy Mollet, for sure, ended the Algerian war!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 23, 2012, 01:51:10 PM
You clearly need to read-up on French political history if you think the platform of the left is a guide to what the left in power does. Guy Mollet, for sure, ended the Algerian war!

Yes, the gap between rhetoric and policy is... large.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 23, 2012, 05:28:15 PM
LOL, Le Pen was even more despicable than I expected. And Mélenchon was k**king brilliant, if only I agreed with him on policies I'd be enthused to vote for him.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 23, 2012, 05:49:34 PM
LOL, Le Pen was even more despicable than I expected. And Mélenchon was k**king brilliant, if only I agreed with him on policies I'd be enthused to vote for him.

Anybody truly on the Left would agree with him. I clearly don't give a penny about the Left-Right divide, or for most of it, and overall for it's future, but in the end I very well might finish with a Front de Gauche ballot in my hands.

And yeah, he showed all his potential tonight, while Le Pen made a big time of contempt, and show all her arrogance almost stating that 40% of workers belonged to her, and using polls (bloody non sensical polls) to present herself as the 3rd big political force of the country which only deserved to speak with the 2 biggest ones.

In the end she appears at best as an arrogant, and anyhow as a little spoiled girl making her tantrums, was rather enjoyable how Mélenchon succeeded to ridiculize her while remaining quite classy, if he keeps controlling his nerves (the opposite would be his major flaw) then he has a lot of chances to realize what I think about him.

Marine Le Pen is already becoming less and less stable, and it's only the beginning of the campaign.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 23, 2012, 06:16:33 PM
LOL@Sarko. He will end up as the only candidate of the right, get a half-decent score but have no room to grow on second round.

Please go to my blog: new graphs on vote transfers from one round to the other.

Graphs understandable even for English-speaking readers ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on February 24, 2012, 06:49:48 AM

I hope this post will be quoted in your sig after may 6. If it's not, I'll take care of it. ;)

Never doubt the incompetence of the PS. If they wanted to win, they should have nominated Montebourg not Hollande. Yes Hollande is still the favorite, but he is a much less appealing candidate.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 24, 2012, 07:01:51 AM

I hope this post will be quoted in your sig after may 6. If it's not, I'll take care of it. ;)

Never doubt the incompetence of the PS. If they wanted to win, they should have nominated Montebourg not Hollande. Yes Hollande is still the favorite, but he is a much less appealing candidate.

In an election which will be determined by moderates (and in particular traditionally center-right voters who loathe Sarkozy), nominating Montebourg was probably the last thing to do. There might have been a case for Aubry (I personally considered her more "solid"), but Hollande has nonetheless proven to be a strong candidate.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 24, 2012, 09:39:52 AM
Nominating Montebourg? Please stop saying words.

BTW, you're right, Antonio. Melenchon crused Marion. I'm going to vote for him.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 24, 2012, 11:14:18 AM
...Montebourg for PM though ofc ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 24, 2012, 11:18:36 AM

If you're being serious I must say it's always very enjoyable to see how comments from abroad can be exotic. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 24, 2012, 11:46:02 AM

If you're being serious I must say it's always very enjoyable to see how comments from abroad can be exotic. :)

I was joking :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on February 24, 2012, 08:45:43 PM
Nowhere to watch these debates subtitled? I'd love to see them.

Am I remembering correctly that the BBC showed some of the last election's debates? I remember them being run-off one's, but they might've shown some of the previous ones too - I missed them all. 


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 24, 2012, 08:47:59 PM
Found out yesterday that I have what's basically my final French exam the morning after the first round. Great.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on February 25, 2012, 02:42:09 PM
How about for finance minister? And no, that's not a joke.  Though it would probably be a great way to PO Merkel, Lagarde, and the banks.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on February 25, 2012, 04:32:47 PM
How about for finance minister? And no, that's not a joke.  Though it would probably be a great way to PO Merkel, Lagarde, and the banks.

I doubt he wants to annoy them.
But, sure, he has almost no choice, he has to find a office for Montebourg.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 25, 2012, 06:16:31 PM
Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 25, 2012, 07:27:05 PM
Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

Why does Hollande think he needs to poach FN voters? Can't the FN doing very well in the first round only benefit him?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on February 25, 2012, 09:09:34 PM
Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

Why does Hollande think he needs to poach FN voters? Can't the FN doing very well in the first round only benefit him?
What is this thing he wants to do? I read about it, but the only article I could find about it was on the World Socialist Website (which is, for anyone who doesn't know, a Trotskyist lunatic site) which called him a nazi and gave only a few parts of his quote with many groups of three dots throughout.   I don't think I can trust half of the stuff the article said about him.  What did he say, exactly?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 25, 2012, 09:18:37 PM
Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

Why does Hollande think he needs to poach FN voters? Can't the FN doing very well in the first round only benefit him?

That's how Jean-Marie Le Pen made it to the runoff a decade ago- by poaching PS voters. Immigration/cultural policy is one half, the bipartisan economic consensus on soft neoliberalism another. (Resident French, please correct me if I missed something here)

Peter: Internment camps where they would be held in between being rounded up and shipped back to Romania (which is Sarko's current policy, minus internment camps) and some sort of border controls. The latter of which could well violate EU open-borders agreements if implemented.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 25, 2012, 09:21:12 PM
If you're being serious I must say it's always very enjoyable to see how comments from abroad can be exotic. :)

I was joking :P
How about for finance minister? And no, that's not a joke.

I must say it's always very enjoyable to see how comments from abroad can be exotic. :)

Seriously, Montebourg on Economy? What about Jospin in Sports (hey he played basket-ball)?

You want a Ministry for Montebourg? Hmm, let me know...

PM: Moscovici, Sapin, Aubry, other, no way for Montebourg
Interior: Valls, other, no way for Montebourg
Foreign Office: Védrine, Fabius, Lang, other, no way for Montebourg
Economy: Cahuzac, Moscovici, Aubry??, other, no way for Montebourg

Was going to try to write a full shadow govt for an eventual PS victory, but heck, it's 03.03 am and seems my mind is resisting to this idea, then I won't go further by now, should have been in my mind while I was still thinking Hollande could have significant chances, that is well, circa his victory in primaries.

Since Montebourg seems to raise some attention, the biggest he could hope would be Justice, very eventually Labour/Social affairs, very eventually external trade, and my mind is resisting again to try to find some other eventualities.

Quote
Though it would probably be a great way to PO Merkel, Lagarde, and the banks.

Lol at thinking anybody in the 'big boys' (sorry Martine, but well, she was far more feminine when she was young, and even rather cute) of PS is looking at doing this. And about Montebourg, he and his ideas would certainly be part of the future of the Left, at least on the short term, but seeing as a man full of conviction is a bit too much, that's merely a fanfaron, of which the energy might be useful in the future, when (thankfully!!) this bloody PS will be destroyed, or will deeply mutate, but well...

And well, Hollande and FN, he has nothing to do to put the hand on the eventual FN voters that can still move, that is at most anything that would go beyond 10%, since a majority of those would vote for the most anti-system possible thing, then eventually Le Pen, in 1st round, and in a Hollande-Sarkozy run off, they would automatically vote against the incumbent. Thinking Hollande can, and would, put the hand on some FN people by playing on some far-rightist speeches is rather, lol.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 25, 2012, 09:44:17 PM
Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

Why does Hollande think he needs to poach FN voters? Can't the FN doing very well in the first round only benefit him?

That's how Jean-Marie Le Pen made it to the runoff a decade ago- by poaching PS voters. Immigration/cultural policy is one half, the bipartisan economic consensus on soft neoliberalism another. (Resident French, please correct me if I missed something here)

So the concern is that FN would actually take more from PS than from UMP, even though a few polls from a while back were showing Marine edging Sarko into the runoff and then getting crushed by Hollande?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2012, 10:01:42 AM
Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

Why does Hollande think he needs to poach FN voters? Can't the FN doing very well in the first round only benefit him?

Because of gaucho-lepenisme.

That's how Jean-Marie Le Pen made it to the runoff a decade ago- by poaching PS voters. Immigration/cultural policy is one half, the bipartisan economic consensus on soft neoliberalism another. (Resident French, please correct me if I missed something here)

... but the phenomenon of gaucho-lepenisme is nowhere near as widespread or determinant as people want to make us think it is. For starters, the bulk of the FN's working-class vote is mostly from the 3 in 10 who voted for the right in the 1970s, not the 7 in 10 who voted for the left. JMLP's 2002 performance, compared to his result in 1995 (less than +1% or so), was nothing spectacular. He only gained a few points, and in a fair number of areas - ironically some PCF or traditionally left-wing working-class areas - he lost votes in 2002 compared to 1995.

2002 was more some freakish aberration than any significant realignment of the FN vote or a spectacular FN surge. It really is unfortunate that everybody assumes they know a sh**tload about the FN, when in reality they only know the anecdotal 'evidence' and theories sprouted by a few in the media who clearly don't know sh**t about the FN or its history or its voters.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 26, 2012, 01:46:10 PM
Abroad I don't know, but in France it's clear for everybody now that 2002 was the widespread of the Left. Which is one way to assume its weakness too.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on February 27, 2012, 05:05:21 AM
Why I think the final will be MLP - Hollande

1-left, polls after polls, is again poorly upon 40% (after TEN years of impaired balance of UMP'rule)

2-consequently, the total of the non-left (personnaly, I don't trust there's something like "right" to exist) would be 56/58 %

3-the non-right have 3 candidates : bayrou, sarkozly, MLP

4-A middle ratio by 58 for the 3 give 19% for each one.

5- It can be reasonnable to think than bayrou will have a score inferior than the two others

6-In 2007, Sarko take all he can take from JMLP's voters.

7-The strong base of Sarko are the oldest people

8-Since 2007, demographically, 5 millions of them had died

9-Hollande, as Bayrou, as MLP, as Mélenchon can easily answer, for each proposal of Sarko : why did'nt had you made it before, cause UMP is on charge since ten years

10-If we admitt than Bayrou will have 12 % , that's 46/44% for MLP and Sarko

11-Consequently, a ratio of 22/23 % for each one.

12-In 2007, Sarko was full, with 31,18%. Le Pen (JM) was at 10.44. I doubt that Nihous and Villiers' voters (at least for the first round) want to vote for Sarkozy. So imagine that JMLP minimal base was 10.44+2.23+1.15 = 13.82

13-At least 8% of the 2007's sarko vote came from 2002' megret/JMLP vote.

14-Basically, Sarko may be now at 23.18, and MLP at 21.82

15-thus, the final will be extremely close for each one, and Hollande, with his (apparent) moderate speech, have no reasons to afraid right-wing voters and make them vote "utile" (vote UMP, so).

16-At those 15 points, I must add the crisis fact. Sarkozy's solutions are not very different to the Hollande's ones. So, a real economic choice would be between Hollande and MLP (could you imagine to be on fire for a Hollande-Sarko TV debate?()

17-In conclusion, I think the polls are wrong (not in a falsifcation way but in a mistake way) and than the final will oppose Hollande to MLP.

bonus track 18^^ : Hollande will win easily, but the difficulty of the left would be to win the legislative elections (wich is the key for ruling, contrary to apparences)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2012, 05:54:10 AM
There is no evidence suggesting that polls are underestimating Le Pen support. It is doubtful that people are ashamed of admitting their support for the FN as it was in the past, and even then pollster are still apllying some corrections. While nobody can say how this will end up, there's no reasons to assume polls are wrong.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on February 27, 2012, 05:58:18 AM
There is no evidence suggesting that polls are underestimating Le Pen support. It is doubtful that people are ashamed of admitting their support for the FN as it was in the past, and even then pollster are still apllying some corrections. While nobody can say how this will end up, there's no reasons to assume polls are wrong.



that's not the essential point of my tentative of analysis :tongue:


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2012, 06:00:49 AM
There is no evidence suggesting that polls are underestimating Le Pen support. It is doubtful that people are ashamed of admitting their support for the FN as it was in the past, and even then pollster are still apllying some corrections. While nobody can say how this will end up, there's no reasons to assume polls are wrong.



that's not the essential point of my tentative of analysis :tongue:

So you assume Le Pen will gain traction in the last stages of the campaign ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on February 27, 2012, 07:12:17 AM
based on what I said on my previous post, yes.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 27, 2012, 07:15:32 AM
Honestly, your previous post seemed to be full of dubious calculations and abstract reasonings, which, IMO, don't mean much.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on February 27, 2012, 06:47:25 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #43 - 27 February 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   



      

Hollande   30,09
Sarkozy   25,65
Le Pen   17,09
Bayrou   12,14
Mélenchon   8,3
Joly   2,81
Villepin   1,71
(Morin)   0,07
Lepage   0,53
Dupont-Aignan   0,68
(Boutin)   0,07
(Nihous)   0,19
Arthaud   0,4
Poutou   0,27
(Chevènement)   0,01
Cheminade   0,00

Hollande   56,91
Sarkozy   43,09


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 28, 2012, 09:00:32 AM
()

()

The trend is negative again, but there's no particular reason to assume it will continue. As Fabien put it in his blog, this is a conjunctural phenomenon linked to Sarko's "campaign effect" and to the withdrawal of several right-wing nobodies. Hopefully it will be short-lived.



BTW, glad to see Hollande finally taking a courageous stance on fiscal issues. Yes, we need a 75% marginal tax rate if we want to reduce deficits in a fair way. I really hope he won't backtrack as he's done on other proposals before, it would be totally absurd.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on February 28, 2012, 12:33:22 PM
Ifop now has the runoff gap down to 55-45.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 28, 2012, 12:35:48 PM
The runoff gap doesn't exceed 10 when the two major parties make the runoff, so no surprise there.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 29, 2012, 03:36:16 PM
Francois meeting with Miliband today in London, and not David Cameron. I like Hollande more and more every day.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on February 29, 2012, 03:40:25 PM
Francois meeting with Miliband today in London, and not David Cameron. I like Hollande more and more every day.

Actually, I think that it's Cameron who refused to meet him. Like Merkel and Chinese bigwigs before. I wonder if these people understand they'll probably have to deal with him for the next 5 years (or more).

Still, a neoliberal asshole not wanting to meet you is a quite positive thing.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 29, 2012, 03:43:20 PM
Actually, I think that it's Cameron who refused to meet him

Yes, that would fit in with what we know of the man. Cameron, that is.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 29, 2012, 04:01:57 PM
Actually, I think that it's Cameron who refused to meet him

Yes, that would fit in with what we know of the man. Cameron, that is.

What? Now that's pathetic. Relations with Sarko are frosty enough never mind a PS president.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on February 29, 2012, 07:55:09 PM
Actually, in this video (http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=hollande&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEgQqQIwAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fbusiness%2Fhollande-meets-miliband-not-cameron-in-london%2F2012%2F02%2F29%2FgIQAkYgWiR_video.html&ei=GcdOT4-NKqPU0QW9sKDuCw&usg=AFQjCNHvrK5FGnTt0F2ZAwUr9MdX407u7g&cad=rja), Hollande answers that question directly:
"I hadn't requested to meet with David Cameron, today my priority was to meet my fellow friends from the Labour party, and maybe one day - if I manage to convince the French on May 6th - then I will meet Cameron. But for now, as you know, Cameron and Merkel and the Spanish conservative leader Rajoy are all backing Sarkozy."


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 29, 2012, 07:58:45 PM
Actually, in this video (http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=hollande&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEgQqQIwAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fbusiness%2Fhollande-meets-miliband-not-cameron-in-london%2F2012%2F02%2F29%2FgIQAkYgWiR_video.html&ei=GcdOT4-NKqPU0QW9sKDuCw&usg=AFQjCNHvrK5FGnTt0F2ZAwUr9MdX407u7g&cad=rja), Hollande answers that question directly:
"I hadn't requested to meet with David Cameron, today my priority was to meet my fellow friends from the Labour party, and maybe one day - if I manage to convince the French on May 6th - then I will meet Cameron. But for now, as you know, Cameron and Merkel and the Spanish conservative leader Rajoy are all backing Sarkozy."

Ah, I see. I know Merkel's openly backing Sarko and i'm sure Rajoy and Dave are privately hoping. If anything, their support for Sarko would drive me further towards Hollande, if I was French.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Iannis on March 01, 2012, 07:36:00 AM
Actually, in this video (http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=hollande&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEgQqQIwAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fbusiness%2Fhollande-meets-miliband-not-cameron-in-london%2F2012%2F02%2F29%2FgIQAkYgWiR_video.html&ei=GcdOT4-NKqPU0QW9sKDuCw&usg=AFQjCNHvrK5FGnTt0F2ZAwUr9MdX407u7g&cad=rja), Hollande answers that question directly:
"I hadn't requested to meet with David Cameron, today my priority was to meet my fellow friends from the Labour party, and maybe one day - if I manage to convince the French on May 6th - then I will meet Cameron. But for now, as you know, Cameron and Merkel and the Spanish conservative leader Rajoy are all backing Sarkozy."

Why should Hollande meet Cameron? He's not president, so, it's only a politician and is supposed to meet just his fellows of Labour party.
I'm comforted by the fact that 52% of Europeans is governed by who has signed the letter for a bigger european market and reforms for growth, basically Cameron, Monti, Rajoy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on March 01, 2012, 07:42:07 AM
Actually, in this video (http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=hollande&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEgQqQIwAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fbusiness%2Fhollande-meets-miliband-not-cameron-in-london%2F2012%2F02%2F29%2FgIQAkYgWiR_video.html&ei=GcdOT4-NKqPU0QW9sKDuCw&usg=AFQjCNHvrK5FGnTt0F2ZAwUr9MdX407u7g&cad=rja), Hollande answers that question directly:
"I hadn't requested to meet with David Cameron, today my priority was to meet my fellow friends from the Labour party, and maybe one day - if I manage to convince the French on May 6th - then I will meet Cameron. But for now, as you know, Cameron and Merkel and the Spanish conservative leader Rajoy are all backing Sarkozy."

Why should Hollande meet Cameron? He's not president, so, it's only a politician and is supposed to meet just his fellows of Labour party.
I'm comforted by the fact that 52% of Europeans is governed by who has signed the letter for a bigger european market and reforms for growth, basically Cameron, Monti, Rajoy.

A wonderful panel.
A guy which has to rely on another party to have a majority, some guy who wasn't elected and lack legitimacy and a guy who got elected by refusing to say what he will do.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Iannis on March 01, 2012, 12:02:24 PM
Actually, in this video (http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=hollande&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEgQqQIwAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fbusiness%2Fhollande-meets-miliband-not-cameron-in-london%2F2012%2F02%2F29%2FgIQAkYgWiR_video.html&ei=GcdOT4-NKqPU0QW9sKDuCw&usg=AFQjCNHvrK5FGnTt0F2ZAwUr9MdX407u7g&cad=rja), Hollande answers that question directly:
"I hadn't requested to meet with David Cameron, today my priority was to meet my fellow friends from the Labour party, and maybe one day - if I manage to convince the French on May 6th - then I will meet Cameron. But for now, as you know, Cameron and Merkel and the Spanish conservative leader Rajoy are all backing Sarkozy."

Why should Hollande meet Cameron? He's not president, so, it's only a politician and is supposed to meet just his fellows of Labour party.
I'm comforted by the fact that 52% of Europeans is governed by who has signed the letter for a bigger european market and reforms for growth, basically Cameron, Monti, Rajoy.

A wonderful panel.
A guy which has to rely on another party to have a majority, some guy who wasn't elected and lack legitimacy and a guy who got elected by refusing to say what he will do.

Using your verbal rhetoric every leader in the world has something to blame for. The fact is that any of these is perfectly legitimate, according to all the democratic Constitutions, probably it's better to look at the content of that letter and criticize that one, in case.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 01, 2012, 02:11:25 PM
Just been watching Francois in Lyon tonight. I remember how awful a candidate I thought he'd be, i'm glad i've been proved wrong!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 01, 2012, 02:19:55 PM
Just been watching Francois in Lyon tonight. I remember how awful a candidate I thought he'd be, i'm glad i've been proved wrong!

Ditto, same here.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on March 01, 2012, 02:53:23 PM
F my non-existent language skills. :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 01, 2012, 03:53:23 PM
F my non-existent language skills. :(

Most convenient election ever. Need an A in French in June for Uni.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 01, 2012, 06:17:54 PM
Hollande pulls a Romney on this millionaires tax pledge:
http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/breve/2012/03/01/75-d-imposition-hollande-etait-contre-il-y-a-un-an_1650847_1471069.html

He basically said such a high rate would be "confiscatory" and that the rich would just start using offshore accounts in January 2011.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 02, 2012, 03:53:22 AM
Just been watching Francois in Lyon tonight. I remember how awful a candidate I thought he'd be, i'm glad i've been proved wrong!

Ditto, same here.

It's not because he's good at meetings and speeches: he constantly pushes his voice too high just to say empty things and to say "en même temps" (remember "p'têt ben qu'oui, p'têt ben qu'non"). He's a bit ridiculous, with always the same gestures with his hands.
(make no mistake: Sarkozy also is imiatating himself constantly and is ridiculous in 2012)
He's ridiculous, but kindly ridiculous and that's also why it works.

It's just that Hollande has taken the right positioning from the beginning: a "normal" candidate for a "normal presidency. Someone who will appease, someone who won't create problems in everyday life (whatever the things he really does after the election... as not really tackling problems will be a bad thing for French people)

He is awaited for, it's just his time. And so everybody sees him as good because people wants to put good feelings on him.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 02, 2012, 04:04:24 AM
Well, there must be some reasons why the Bourget meeting boosted his candidacy so much (besides the ZOMGZ LEFTY MEDIA CONSPIRACY of course). He is able to make sense while appealing to a broad part of French people. Whether what he says is smart or stupid depends on your positioning, but I don't think you can accuse him of being weak.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 02, 2012, 09:30:19 AM
Let's say he is mostly empty. Another example yesterday and today with the taxes on life insurance contracts.
It's always fine-tuning, with, in many cases, flip-flopping BUT, granted, at a low scale, so not really damageable for him.
Tactically, it's very well done, but, frankly, he is doing almost as few promises as Bayrou ;D
And really not big ones.
It's better in a way, I agree, but we can't say he is leading a grand élan ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 02, 2012, 10:15:12 AM
He would be called a liar (and rightfully so) if he promised more. The only real issue with this election is making sure austerity doesn't mean disbanding the welfare State and screwing the lower/lower-middle classes even more. It's between ideological, neoliberal austerity and pragmatic, justice-oriented austerity. So yeah, not the kind of stake that makes people dream, but an important one enough for people to make the right choice.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on March 02, 2012, 11:18:40 PM
is it possible to open poll thread in "international elections" ? (not about official poll, but about votes of member of the atlasforum)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 03, 2012, 05:51:41 AM
is it possible to open poll thread in "international elections" ? (not about official poll, but about votes of member of the atlasforum)

I think it should go to "International general discussion", per the forum's conventions.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 05, 2012, 05:03:48 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #44 - 5 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   


      

Hollande   29,82
Sarkozy   25,96
Le Pen   16,86
Bayrou   12,17
Mélenchon   8,50
Joly   2,96
Villepin   1,47
(Morin)   0,01
Lepage   0,55
Dupont-Aignan   0,71
(Boutin)   0,03
(Nihous)   0,10
Arthaud   0,44
Poutou   0,38   
Cheminade   0,05

Hollande   56,85
Sarkozy   43,15

Sarkozy has already lost. It's too late now for him to come back.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 05, 2012, 05:07:48 PM
Sarkozy has already lost. It's too late now for him to come back.

:D

Francois, president! Francois, president!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RodPresident on March 05, 2012, 08:35:22 PM
Only way to Hollande lose this thing maybe a late surge by Bayrou who goes to run-off and win with support of right-wingers and anti-establshiment people. If he gets in position to take a place in run-off, Villepin would drop-out only to humillate Sarkozy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on March 05, 2012, 08:38:56 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #44 - 5 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   


      

Hollande   29,82
Sarkozy   25,96
Le Pen   16,86
Bayrou   12,17
Mélenchon   8,50
Joly   2,96
Villepin   1,47
(Morin)   0,01
Lepage   0,55
Dupont-Aignan   0,71
(Boutin)   0,03
(Nihous)   0,10
Arthaud   0,44
Poutou   0,38   
Cheminade   0,05

Hollande   56,85
Sarkozy   43,15

Sarkozy has already lost. It's too late now for him to come back.


I'm not giving up yet.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on March 06, 2012, 03:32:17 AM
is it possible to open poll thread in "international elections" ? (not about official poll, but about votes of member of the atlasforum)

I think it should go to "International general discussion", per the forum's conventions.


thank you


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on March 06, 2012, 03:37:48 AM
it's done :

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=150286.0


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 06, 2012, 05:13:10 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #44 - 5 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   


      

Hollande   29,82
Sarkozy   25,96
Le Pen   16,86
Bayrou   12,17
Mélenchon   8,50
Joly   2,96
Villepin   1,47
(Morin)   0,01
Lepage   0,55
Dupont-Aignan   0,71
(Boutin)   0,03
(Nihous)   0,10
Arthaud   0,44
Poutou   0,38   
Cheminade   0,05

Hollande   56,85
Sarkozy   43,15

Sarkozy has already lost. It's too late now for him to come back.


No new polls since you posted it on your blog sunday ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Earthling on March 06, 2012, 06:48:42 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #44 - 5 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   


      

Hollande   29,82
Sarkozy   25,96
Le Pen   16,86
Bayrou   12,17
Mélenchon   8,50
Joly   2,96
Villepin   1,47
(Morin)   0,01
Lepage   0,55
Dupont-Aignan   0,71
(Boutin)   0,03
(Nihous)   0,10
Arthaud   0,44
Poutou   0,38   
Cheminade   0,05

Hollande   56,85
Sarkozy   43,15

Sarkozy has already lost. It's too late now for him to come back.


Didn't he need a strong surge after his entry announcement a couple weeks ago?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 06, 2012, 05:54:23 PM
How did you find Sarkozy this evening ? As despicable as his rhetoric is, I have to say he was quite good from a formal point of view. I doubt this will change anything, but I fear that for once he might have scored some points. :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 07, 2012, 09:44:33 AM
Wow... thanks, Antonio ;D

But... well, I can't concur... I've just... forgotten to watch :P
That's the unbelievable truth, I'm not kiddin' :( :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 07, 2012, 02:20:07 PM
Wow... thanks, Antonio ;D

But... well, I can't concur... I've just... forgotten to watch :P
That's the unbelievable truth, I'm not kiddin' :( :)

LOL... I really can't believe this. Shame on you ! :P

And anyways, why thanking me ? Don't get me wrong : his campaigning abilities don't make my opinion of him any higher.

Actually, I was secretly hoping for you to reassure me by answering "no no no no, Antonio, you are wrong, he was awful because..." like you often do. ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 08, 2012, 07:58:32 AM
It's the opposite: your acknowledgement of Sarkozy being not so bad was just the only good news of the day :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 09, 2012, 06:07:38 AM
Sarkozy seems to close the gap rather quickly in the 1st round.

CSA and Opinionway have him only 2% behind Hollande now.

Run-off is still 56-44 Hollande, but that can also change quickly.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 09, 2012, 10:21:51 AM
Sarkozy seems to close the gap rather quickly in the 1st round.

CSA and Opinionway have him only 2% behind Hollande now.


Yep, but there are IPSOS, BVA, LH2 that are contrarians. And it's not so clear in daily IFOP.
Go to my blog ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 09, 2012, 10:39:55 AM
*please French People don't screw this up don't screw this up please French People*


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on March 09, 2012, 05:30:40 PM
*please French People don't screw this up don't screw this up please French People*


Yes let's hope they don't elect Hollande. ;) Why is Sarkozy closing the gap all of the sudden?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on March 09, 2012, 08:44:45 PM
Hollande seems pretty good as far as European social democrats go.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2012, 02:22:46 AM
*please French People don't screw this up don't screw this up please French People*


Yes let's hope they don't elect Hollande. ;) Why is Sarkozy closing the gap all of the sudden?

Because he started campaigning ?

It's probably not the 83% tax on millionaires thing, which is quite popular with a majority of the French, from what I've read.

Maybe it has also to do with the fact that the other leftist dude is taking away blue-collar voters from LePen and Sarkozy gets a few of her supporters as well, with his recent anti-immigration stance.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 10, 2012, 04:32:07 AM
The trend is not so clear. Sarkozy is gaining ground on first round voters, true, but Hollande isn't really losing and on first round, the standings are roughly unchanged (even though there are differences between polling firms).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 10, 2012, 09:35:36 AM
I will literally shoot the next person who continues to buy into the PCF>FN transfer lies.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 10, 2012, 05:54:46 PM
The trend is not so clear. Sarkozy is gaining ground on first round voters, true, but Hollande isn't really losing and on first round, the standings are roughly unchanged (even though there are differences between polling firms).

Yep, in the tracker, it will only slightly change on Monday...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 11, 2012, 04:43:53 AM
The trend is not so clear. Sarkozy is gaining ground on first round voters, true, but Hollande isn't really losing and on first round, the standings are roughly unchanged (even though there are differences between polling firms).

Yep, in the tracker, it will only slightly change on Monday...

I've made a little calculation and, depending how you account for the daily IFOP, this week's average goes from 56.86 to 57.08 for Hollande. So yeah, depending on the other weeks, it's roughly unchanged.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 11, 2012, 05:46:49 AM
The trend is not so clear. Sarkozy is gaining ground on first round voters, true, but Hollande isn't really losing and on first round, the standings are roughly unchanged (even though there are differences between polling firms).

Yep, in the tracker, it will only slightly change on Monday...

I've made a little calculation and, depending how you account for the daily IFOP, this week's average goes from 56.86 to 57.08 for Hollande. So yeah, depending on the other weeks, it's roughly unchanged.

Well, actually, with the OpinionWay one, it's between 56.75 and 56.93...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 11, 2012, 03:46:35 PM
The trend is not so clear. Sarkozy is gaining ground on first round voters, true, but Hollande isn't really losing and on first round, the standings are roughly unchanged (even though there are differences between polling firms).

Yep, in the tracker, it will only slightly change on Monday...

I've made a little calculation and, depending how you account for the daily IFOP, this week's average goes from 56.86 to 57.08 for Hollande. So yeah, depending on the other weeks, it's roughly unchanged.

Well, actually, with the OpinionWay one, it's between 56.75 and 56.93...

56.69 ;D
Don't forget some old ones are dropped.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 11, 2012, 04:05:03 PM
The trend is not so clear. Sarkozy is gaining ground on first round voters, true, but Hollande isn't really losing and on first round, the standings are roughly unchanged (even though there are differences between polling firms).

Yep, in the tracker, it will only slightly change on Monday...

I've made a little calculation and, depending how you account for the daily IFOP, this week's average goes from 56.86 to 57.08 for Hollande. So yeah, depending on the other weeks, it's roughly unchanged.

Well, actually, with the OpinionWay one, it's between 56.75 and 56.93...

56.69 ;D
Don't forget some old ones are dropped.


I was talking about this week's average. ;) Hmmm, in this case, it means the most recent polls are slightly more favorable to Hollande than the old ones... Heartening. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 12, 2012, 12:04:55 PM
Okay, this is over.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/03/12/sarkozy-received-42m-from-gaddafi-to-fund-2007-election-campaign_n_1339333.html?ref=uk


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 12, 2012, 12:06:09 PM
Okay, this is over.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/03/12/sarkozy-received-42m-from-gaddafi-to-fund-2007-election-campaign_n_1339333.html?ref=uk

Wow, really ??

No news in French media so far.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 12, 2012, 06:02:06 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #45 - 12 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   


      

Hollande   29,53
Sarkozy   26,06
Le Pen   16,78
Bayrou   12,38
Mélenchon   8,74
Joly   2,73
Villepin   1,37   
Lepage   0,6
Dupont-Aignan   0,76   
(Nihous)   0,03
Arthaud   0,52
Poutou   0,48   
Cheminade   0,03


Hollande   56,69
Sarkozy   43,31


BREAKING NEWS:

For the first time since DSK fell, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande (28.5 - 27) in an IFOP poll tonight.
But still 54.5 - 45.5 in the second round.
At last, some suspense ? ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 12, 2012, 09:25:55 PM
Sarkozy will be re-elected.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on March 12, 2012, 10:06:13 PM
France is, politically, an absolutely horrible country, but I still doubt they'll reelect Sarkozy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 13, 2012, 12:25:59 AM


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: greenforest32 on March 13, 2012, 12:32:50 AM
Okay, this is over.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/03/12/sarkozy-received-42m-from-gaddafi-to-fund-2007-election-campaign_n_1339333.html?ref=uk

Sardaffi? Qaddkozy?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on March 13, 2012, 12:33:10 AM

I concur.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: LastVoter on March 13, 2012, 01:13:30 AM
May France be red.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 13, 2012, 02:42:55 AM
BREAKING NEWS:

For the first time since DSK fell, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande (28.5 - 27) in an IFOP poll tonight.
But still 54.5 - 45.5 in the second round.
At last, some suspense ? ;D

Yeah, I've seen the poll on your blog. What a bunch of retards.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 13, 2012, 04:21:02 AM
Pink. Red would be PCF.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 13, 2012, 05:05:31 AM
BREAKING NEWS:

For the first time since DSK fell, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande (28.5 - 27) in an IFOP poll tonight.
But still 54.5 - 45.5 in the second round.
At last, some suspense ? ;D

Yeah, I've seen the poll on your blog. What a bunch of retards.

The pollsters or the voters ? ;)

Don't lose your mind: even in mid-March 2007, some polls gave Sarkozy at 50,5 (or maybe even 50). I remember I was worried each morning to see another bad poll. And Bayrou was really close to Royal and would have beaten Sarkozy. Imagine how sad I was :P

Here, what have we ?
The entire mainstream right at 30 ?
And the worst second round poll for 6 months at 54.5 for Hollande ?
Come on! ;D
THIS is really the result of a bunch of retards ! ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 13, 2012, 12:32:36 PM
But Sarko has no hope in the second round, right? :|

If the PS lose this, I swear to god...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 13, 2012, 02:26:50 PM
BREAKING NEWS:

For the first time since DSK fell, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande (28.5 - 27) in an IFOP poll tonight.
But still 54.5 - 45.5 in the second round.
At last, some suspense ? ;D

Yeah, I've seen the poll on your blog. What a bunch of retards.

The pollsters or the voters ? ;)

Don't lose your mind: even in mid-March 2007, some polls gave Sarkozy at 50,5 (or maybe even 50). I remember I was worried each morning to see another bad poll. And Bayrou was really close to Royal and would have beaten Sarkozy. Imagine how sad I was :P

Here, what have we ?
The entire mainstream right at 30 ?
And the worst second round poll for 6 months at 54.5 for Hollande ?
Come on! ;D
THIS is really the result of a bunch of retards ! ;)

The voters, of course. I would understand if Sarko had given some stirring speach, had come out with a revolutionary idea or had found some way to prove his abnegations as "captain of the ship through the storm", or if Hollande had made a major gaffe, appeared as weak or flip-flopping on some issue. But here, what new happened ? Another retarded gaffe about halal meat started by the government in a lame attempt to pander to the far-right. A Terra Nova report showing that the wealthy have benefitted from 80% of Sarko's policies. Sarkozy unable to come up with anything new. So why ? That's all I'm asking. I didn't feel this way when Hollande was losing ground on november-december, because there were valid reasons for that. But what I don't accept is this sudden, undeserved Sarko surge. I really don't understand where it comes from : Mélenchon is a tad higher, but not enough to explain it ; as for Bayrou and Le Pen, they are at their usual level. It just looks like 2% of Hollande voters woke up and said "guess what, I change my mind, I'm going with Sarko". It's just ridiculous.

And yes, I know Hollande won't lose this. But a Hollande win under 55% would be a symbolic defeat, as I explained you last time.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on March 14, 2012, 10:06:04 AM



me too (except if he lose in semifinals)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on March 14, 2012, 10:07:21 AM


no.


All lefts, include green, stay at the very low level of 40 % in 1995, 2002, 2007 and, probably, 2012


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Iannis on March 14, 2012, 10:39:05 AM
BREAKING NEWS:

For the first time since DSK fell, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande (28.5 - 27) in an IFOP poll tonight.
But still 54.5 - 45.5 in the second round.
At last, some suspense ? ;D

Yeah, I've seen the poll on your blog. What a bunch of retards.

The pollsters or the voters ? ;)

Don't lose your mind: even in mid-March 2007, some polls gave Sarkozy at 50,5 (or maybe even 50). I remember I was worried each morning to see another bad poll. And Bayrou was really close to Royal and would have beaten Sarkozy. Imagine how sad I was :P

Here, what have we ?
The entire mainstream right at 30 ?
And the worst second round poll for 6 months at 54.5 for Hollande ?
Come on! ;D
THIS is really the result of a bunch of retards ! ;)

The voters, of course. I would understand if Sarko had given some stirring speach, had come out with a revolutionary idea or had found some way to prove his abnegations as "captain of the ship through the storm", or if Hollande had made a major gaffe, appeared as weak or flip-flopping on some issue. But here, what new happened ? Another retarded gaffe about halal meat started by the government in a lame attempt to pander to the far-right. A Terra Nova report showing that the wealthy have benefitted from 80% of Sarko's policies. Sarkozy unable to come up with anything new. So why ? That's all I'm asking. I didn't feel this way when Hollande was losing ground on november-december, because there were valid reasons for that. But what I don't accept is this sudden, undeserved Sarko surge. I really don't understand where it comes from : Mélenchon is a tad higher, but not enough to explain it ; as for Bayrou and Le Pen, they are at their usual level. It just looks like 2% of Hollande voters woke up and said "guess what, I change my mind, I'm going with Sarko". It's just ridiculous.

And yes, I know Hollande won't lose this. But a Hollande win under 55% would be a symbolic defeat, as I explained you last time.

You do'nt consider declared abstensions and undecided. Sarkozy is very likely to have gathered many "sleeping" former Sarkozy voters who had declared to be not certain who to vote, and have been woken up by the beginning of Sarkozy's campaign


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on March 14, 2012, 03:03:45 PM
New poll from TNS:
First round:
Hollande: 30,00
Sarkozy: 26,00
Le Pen: 16,00
Bayrou: 11,50
Melenchon: 10,00
Joly: 3,00
Villepin: 1,00
Arthaud: 0,50
Poutou: 0,50

Second round
Hollande: 58,00
Sarkozy: 42,00

Thank god, Sarkozy's bounce appears to have been a brief phenomenon.  Hopefully.  Please, France don't screw this up.  Just please keep these numbers like this just for 3 more months, please! 



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 14, 2012, 03:56:41 PM
New poll from TNS:
First round:
Hollande: 30,00
Sarkozy: 26,00
Le Pen: 16,00
Bayrou: 11,50
Melenchon: 10,00
Joly: 3,00
Villepin: 1,00
Arthaud: 0,50
Poutou: 0,50

Second round
Hollande: 58,00
Sarkozy: 42,00

Thank god, Sarkozy's bounce appears to have been a brief phenomenon.  Hopefully.  Please, France don't screw this up.  Just please keep these numbers like this just for 3 more months, please!

Either it was an outlier, or the level of uncertainty is raising dramatically. Having a 4 points difference in two polls published within a couple days is pretty rare.

@Iannis : Yes, but why now and not before ? There's nothing singificantly new from Sarko's side this week. I could understand the bounce with his candidacy declaration, but why now ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2012, 03:59:33 PM
New poll from TNS:
First round:
Hollande: 30,00
Sarkozy: 26,00
Le Pen: 16,00
Bayrou: 11,50
Melenchon: 10,00
Joly: 3,00
Villepin: 1,00
Arthaud: 0,50
Poutou: 0,50

Second round
Hollande: 58,00
Sarkozy: 42,00

Thank god, Sarkozy's bounce appears to have been a brief phenomenon.  Hopefully.  Please, France don't screw this up.  Just please keep these numbers like this just for 3 more months, please!

Either it was an outlier, or the level of uncertainty is raising dramatically. Having a 4 points difference in two polls published within a couple days is pretty rare.

@Iannis : Yes, but why now and not before ? There's nothing singificantly new from Sarko's side this week. I could understand the bounce with his candidacy declaration, but why now ?

Sarkonuts are convinced than Villepinte is a key moment of the campaign.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 14, 2012, 04:36:56 PM
New poll from TNS:
First round:
Hollande: 30,00
Sarkozy: 26,00
Le Pen: 16,00
Bayrou: 11,50
Melenchon: 10,00
Joly: 3,00
Villepin: 1,00
Arthaud: 0,50
Poutou: 0,50

Second round
Hollande: 58,00
Sarkozy: 42,00

Thank god, Sarkozy's bounce appears to have been a brief phenomenon.  Hopefully.  Please, France don't screw this up.  Just please keep these numbers like this just for 3 more months, please!

Either it was an outlier, or the level of uncertainty is raising dramatically. Having a 4 points difference in two polls published within a couple days is pretty rare.

@Iannis : Yes, but why now and not before ? There's nothing singificantly new from Sarko's side this week. I could understand the bounce with his candidacy declaration, but why now ?

Sarkonuts are convinced than Villepinte is a key moment of the campaign.

I've always been puzzled by this idea that one meeting is supposed to suddenly change everything. (well, OK, there was Le Bourget, but it was basically the first time Hollande had said something in 3 months)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2012, 05:00:46 PM
The Sarkobump (i.e. him pulling ahead in the first round) has so far only been reported by Ifop's Paris Match tracker (which also has him losing only 46-54 in the runoff). I'm no longer a Sarkozyst, but Ifop seems closer to reality, at least in the runoff.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 14, 2012, 06:09:44 PM
CSA tonight (see my blog ;)) has Sarkozy and Hollande on a par at 28.
I've already noticed that CSA is surprisingly close to the average this round (a bit like ARG having become more reliable in 2012 :P).

Sarkozy has bounced a bit just because he has stolen votes from Le Pen, that's very simple. And, as Hollande has lost 1 or 2 points to Mélenchon, there are neck and neck.
When you see the changes in the transfers from 1st to 2nd rounds, it's very clear.

Antonio, it's not just about Villepinte. Of course a bit, just because of the media buzz (well, Le Bourget wasn't really a great, great speech with many new ideas :P and, still, it had an effect, not per se, but because of the noise and the "story" in the medias).

But the election hasn't really changed.
I repeat and repeat again that Sarkozy has a strategy of trying to win "out of the people", whereas this election will be won "out of the centre".


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 14, 2012, 08:02:37 PM
The Wall Street Journal calling Sarko 'Nicolas Le Pen' because of his immigration policy. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on March 14, 2012, 09:08:18 PM
Good to see Mélenchon rise to a more competitive level. I wouldn't be worried for Hollande until I seen a dropping off of the second-round leads.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 15, 2012, 04:38:32 AM
Why don't we have more polls anyways ? Where are IPSOS, BVA or OpinionWay ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on March 15, 2012, 11:59:42 AM
The Wall Street Journal calling Sarko 'Nicolas Le Pen' because of his immigration policy. :P

He also was attacked in the EP over those.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 15, 2012, 12:01:29 PM
The Wall Street Journal calling Sarko 'Nicolas Le Pen' because of his immigration policy. :P

He also was attacked in the EP over those.

Romney style pandering to steal votes for the far-right. "LOOK! I can be extreme and controversial as well!"


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 15, 2012, 12:13:29 PM
Oh, and Francois met with Rubalcaba today in Spain, following on from his meeting with Miliband a fortnight or so ago. Nice to see than not all of Europe's politicians (ergo, Merkel, Rajoy, Cameron) are right-wing hacks.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 15, 2012, 04:11:21 PM
Down to 53.5-46.5 in the runoff according to Ifop, which, with CSA (?), seems to be the only pollster picking up such a Sarkobump.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 15, 2012, 05:25:18 PM
Down to 53.5-46.5 in the runoff according to Ifop, which, with CSA (?), seems to be the only pollster picking up such a Sarkobump.

Apart from TNS-SOFRES, there have been no other new poll this week. Indeed, I really don't understand what the hell the other pollster are waiting for.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 15, 2012, 05:51:49 PM
Down to 53.5-46.5 in the runoff according to Ifop, which, with CSA (?), seems to be the only pollster picking up such a Sarkobump.

Apart from TNS-SOFRES, there have been no other new poll this week. Indeed, I really don't understand what the hell the other pollster are waiting for.

Blame the medias :P
But I think IPSOS will soon publish another one.
Unfortunately, I'm not sur Math will come back to tell us which polls are in the making, since the article he stole from my blog some weeks ago ;)

Anyway, I must acknowledge something is troubling in the IFOP poll of today...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 15, 2012, 06:32:27 PM
We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 15, 2012, 06:42:28 PM
We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.

You already have 7 polls per week ;D

BTW, I don't know if IPSOS will make another daily poll, like in 2007. Probably not and that's a pity.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 15, 2012, 06:44:55 PM
We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.

You already have 7 polls per week ;D

BTW, I don't know if IPSOS will make another daily poll, like in 2007. Probably not and that's a pity.

The rolling poll of course doesn't count among the 7... But I really think the pollsters (or the media, or whatever) could make more effort. France is 20 years late on this matter.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: JonBidinger on March 15, 2012, 09:25:25 PM
Oh, and Francois met with Rubalcaba today in Spain, following on from his meeting with Miliband a fortnight or so ago. Nice to see than not all of Europe's politicians (ergo, Merkel, Rajoy, Cameron) are right-wing hacks.

He also met with President Komorowski and former PM (and currend SLD head) Leszek Miller last week...but Donald Tusk didn't meet with him.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 16, 2012, 03:53:42 AM
We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.

You already have 7 polls per week ;D

BTW, I don't know if IPSOS will make another daily poll, like in 2007. Probably not and that's a pity.

The rolling poll of course doesn't count among the 7... But I really think the pollsters (or the media, or whatever) could make more effort. France is 20 years late on this matter.

Of course, in the US, just for the primaries, you have a tsunami of polls.
But, when you think about the diversity of the US, the geographical and demographic sizes of the US, well, France's pollsters are less bad than before...
But, I agree that, TODAY, there should be, there smust be, an IPSOS, a BVA and a Harris polls: we need them, we crave for them, because something new may be in the making ;D :P
Though I can't believe the fundamentals of this election have changed... And still...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2012, 03:58:01 AM
We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.

You already have 7 polls per week ;D

BTW, I don't know if IPSOS will make another daily poll, like in 2007. Probably not and that's a pity.

The rolling poll of course doesn't count among the 7... But I really think the pollsters (or the media, or whatever) could make more effort. France is 20 years late on this matter.

Of course, in the US, just for the primaries, you have a tsunami of polls.
But, when you think about the diversity of the US, the geographical and demographic sizes of the US, well, France's pollsters are less bad than before...
But, I agree that, TODAY, there should be, there smust be, an IPSOS, a BVA and a Harris polls: we need them, we crave for them, because something new may be in the making ;D :P
Though I can't believe the fundamentals of this election have changed... And still...

These polls will be l'heure de vérité. So far, two pollsters are announcing a Sarko surge - one which usually underestimates Hollande and the other which usually leans to the left. Another one, which is considered as a pretty average one, instead sees Hollande still high. Nothing can save us apart from new polls.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2012, 07:52:08 AM
By the way, before next Monday :

()

()


And what do you mean with "there should be, there smust be, an IPSOS, a BVA and a Harris polls" ? You think they will come or it's only a hope ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on March 16, 2012, 08:02:01 PM
Mélenchon under the 10% bar. I dream to see the 22 april the 5 candidates between 15 and 19%


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: batmacumba on March 17, 2012, 01:04:53 AM
With the current numbers, some other leftist would have to take votes from Hollande, besides Mélenchon, which seems pretty unprobable by now. Maybe M. Hulot shall get back from his vacations? (I bet no French can bear this joke anymore.)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 17, 2012, 05:22:32 AM
No new poll yesterday ! WTF ?!?

With the current numbers, some other leftist would have to take votes from Hollande, besides Mélenchon, which seems pretty unprobable by now. Maybe M. Hulot shall get back from his vacations? (I bet no French can bear this joke anymore.)

Well, there are a few other problems to your posts :
- The deadline for candidacies was yesterday
- Hulot isn't really a "leftist" anyways, he probably would have taken centrist/independent votes, instead
- Running after pathetically losing your primary is rarely a good thing to do


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 17, 2012, 04:47:21 PM

There is an OW for Le Figaro: I'll publish it this sunday.
They are on par: 27.5 and it's good nexs for Hollande, I think, even the daily IFOP, because Bayrou isn't gaining on him, in fact.
(and 55/45).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 17, 2012, 05:27:51 PM
Well, yeah, considering it's OpinionWay and considering the previous poll, it's not bad news. But it proves the Sarko surge is real...

Where are IPSOS, BVA and Harris, damnit ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 20, 2012, 02:46:50 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #46 - 19 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.6 / 0.2   


      

Hollande 28,55
Sarkozy 27,02
Le Pen 16,38
Bayrou 12,64
Mélenchon 9,76
Joly 2,49
(Villepin) 1,00
(Lepage) 0,39
Dupont-Aignan 0,80
Arthaud 0,48
Poutou 0,48   
Cheminade 0,01


Hollande 55,60
Sarkozy 44,40


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: batmacumba on March 20, 2012, 01:20:32 PM
No new poll yesterday ! WTF ?!?

With the current numbers, some other leftist would have to take votes from Hollande, besides Mélenchon, which seems pretty unprobable by now. Maybe M. Hulot shall get back from his vacations? (I bet no French can bear this joke anymore.)

Well, there are a few other problems to your posts :
- The deadline for candidacies was yesterday
- Hulot isn't really a "leftist" anyways, he probably would have taken centrist/independent votes, instead
- Running after pathetically losing your primary is rarely a good thing to do

Q.E.D.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on March 22, 2012, 10:53:39 AM
So, and I realize this is not very respectful, will recent events result in a Sarko-Le Pen boost?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on March 22, 2012, 01:28:30 PM
So, and I realize this is not very respectful, will recent events result in a Sarko-Le Pen boost?

Yes.

Recent events have probably secured a second term for Sarkozy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 22, 2012, 02:02:20 PM
Guys, don't go too far too soon. Apparently, some UMPers are starting to spin the story for they own benefits (I keep getting surprised by how sickening these people can be) but it is doubtful whether it will have any impact - not to mention it might badly backfire.


Anyways, here are the effects of last week's Sarko surge. Not that big, after all.

()

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2012, 05:49:39 AM
Big gains for Sarkozy in the BVA poll from March 21/22 compared with their March 2/3 poll:

29.5 Hollande (-3.5)
28.0 Sarkozy (+3.0)

54 Hollande (-5)
46 Sarkozy (+5)

Is BVA historically good ?

And a CSA poll has Sarkozy ahead by 30-28, but trailing also by 54-46.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 23, 2012, 06:23:11 AM
AFAIK, BVA usually favors the left.

Now I'm afraid.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2012, 06:27:54 AM
AFAIK, BVA usually favors the left.

Now I'm afraid.

If Sarkozy is at 46% right now and he wins the first round by about 3-5%, how likely is a polling bump to 48-49% ? Then it could be a pretty close election, if the right-wing voters see that he has a chance to win this thing and head to the polls.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 23, 2012, 06:37:33 AM
From what I've seen on Wikipedia, it seems that CSA had the best 2nd round poll in 2007, while it cannot be said which pollster was the best in the 1st round, because they all overestimated the "old" LePen.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 23, 2012, 07:27:05 AM
Here are the numbers of all pollsters from the primary to early march (Hollande 2nd round results), made by Fabien.

()

OpinionWay and Harris seem to underestimate Hollande while BVA and CSA overestimate him (though the pattern isn't so clear).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 23, 2012, 07:30:39 AM
Guys, don't go too far too soon. Apparently, some UMPers are starting to spin the story for they own benefits (I keep getting surprised by how sickening these people can be) but it is doubtful whether it will have any impact - not to mention it might badly backfire.

And, of course, there are elements to it that don't reflect terribly well on the current state of things.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 23, 2012, 11:52:14 AM
CSA is usually a terrible poster, though they seem to have been getting better these days.

BVA's poll also has Melenchon in third, placing ahead of Marion. Which is... doubtful.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 23, 2012, 12:21:52 PM
CSA is usually a terrible poster, though they seem to have been getting better these days.

BVA's poll also has Melenchon in third, placing ahead of Marion. Which is... doubtful.

I don't know. Today's IFOP 3-day rolling poll has him tied with Bayrou at 12...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on March 23, 2012, 01:27:43 PM
So what figure did BVA have for Mélenchon? Either way, I hope the direction of travel for him continues!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 23, 2012, 01:40:41 PM
So what figure did BVA have for Mélenchon? Either way, I hope the direction of travel for him continues!

14 I think.

Mélenchon can't win. All he can do is making Hollande's life more miserable and eventually make him lose and condemn France to 5 more years of Sarkozy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on March 23, 2012, 01:54:45 PM
Well it may be true he can't win, but then neither can Le Pen and yet Sarko's desperately trying to court her vote; so hopefully Mélenchon can at least have that effect.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 23, 2012, 01:58:14 PM
I wouldn't mind the symbolism of a fellow traveler beating a Le Pen, even if I could never vote for such a candidate myself. Still seems a little unlikely though.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 23, 2012, 02:17:34 PM
CSA is usually a terrible poster, though they seem to have been getting better these days.

BVA's poll also has Melenchon in third, placing ahead of Marion. Which is... doubtful.

I don't know. Today's IFOP 3-day rolling poll has him tied with Bayrou at 12...

He can be tied with Bayrou at this point, yes, but probably not Le Pen.

BTW, IFOP's crosstabs are showing a major Sarkozy recovery with 'ouvriers' from his old lows. Even his first round performance is getting healthier, clearly at the expense of Marion. It would be sweetly ironic if Sarkozy won on an electoral coalition which would have elected a leftie in the 1970s and if Hollande won (narrowly) on an electoral coalition which would have elected a rightie in the 1970s.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 23, 2012, 02:28:55 PM
CSA is usually a terrible poster, though they seem to have been getting better these days.

BVA's poll also has Melenchon in third, placing ahead of Marion. Which is... doubtful.

I don't know. Today's IFOP 3-day rolling poll has him tied with Bayrou at 12...

He can be tied with Bayrou at this point, yes, but probably not Le Pen.

BTW, IFOP's crosstabs are showing a major Sarkozy recovery with 'ouvriers' from his old lows. Even his first round performance is getting healthier, clearly at the expense of Marion. It would be sweetly ironic if Sarkozy won on an electoral coalition which would have elected a leftie in the 1970s and if Hollande won (narrowly) on an electoral coalition which would have elected a rightie in the 1970s.

No scenario involving Sarko winning could be considered "ironic" to me. "Pathetic" fits much better.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 23, 2012, 02:44:41 PM
Well it may be true he can't win, but then neither can Le Pen and yet Sarko's desperately trying to court her vote; so hopefully Mélenchon can at least have that effect.

...so that Hollande is forced to look like an extremist, loses votes to the centre and allows Sarko to win. Great idea.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 23, 2012, 05:26:45 PM
CSA is usually a terrible poster, though they seem to have been getting better these days.

BVA's poll also has Melenchon in third, placing ahead of Marion. Which is... doubtful.

I don't know. Today's IFOP 3-day rolling poll has him tied with Bayrou at 12...

He can be tied with Bayrou at this point, yes, but probably not Le Pen.

BTW, IFOP's crosstabs are showing a major Sarkozy recovery with 'ouvriers' from his old lows. Even his first round performance is getting healthier, clearly at the expense of Marion. It would be sweetly ironic if Sarkozy won on an electoral coalition which would have elected a leftie in the 1970s and if Hollande won (narrowly) on an electoral coalition which would have elected a rightie in the 1970s.

Hash, I've just officially launched an SOS on my blog, towards your ability to analyze Mélenchon's rise, which I can't believe in but which seems to be real... ;D
Look at the daily IFOP tonight: Mélenchon is stronger than ever among workers and employees... OMG, what is occurring ?
Is Mélenchon at last stealing votes from Marion Panzergirl ?

BTW, guys, even readable by anglophones, I've just updated the graphs of my blog on results by pollsters for the 5 big candidates.

Oh, and this BVA poll is really troubling: see the numbers on vote transfers for Bayrou and Le Pen: they are completely "new"... :P
I know, BVA isn't a good pollster usually, but, well, this is really weird. Don't know what to think for the moment.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Beet on March 24, 2012, 03:26:57 AM
What does GOTV look like in France? Do you guys get calls from party volunteers reminding you to vote? Is there absentee balloting?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2012, 03:47:00 AM
What does GOTV look like in France? Do you guys get calls from party volunteers reminding you to vote? Is there absentee balloting?

Probably.

Here in Austria, I always get stuff like pencils or pocket lighters or something like that including a written form as to why to vote for each party. Parties mostly do this with first time voters. In 2008 for example I got this from the SPÖ, ÖVP and the BZÖ - even though I ended up voting for the Greens.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 24, 2012, 05:17:07 AM
Geez... Fab being perplexed is a pretty worrying sign...


What does GOTV look like in France? Do you guys get calls from party volunteers reminding you to vote? Is there absentee balloting?

No absentee balloting, only "vote par procuration" (ie you can sign a paper allowing someone else to vote in your name).

As for GOTV, no person I know has ever received a phone call. There must be some door-to-door certainly, but I've not seen it personally. The main activity of party militants is sticking posters and distributing tracts, AFAIK.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on March 24, 2012, 11:11:51 AM
Well it may be true he can't win, but then neither can Le Pen and yet Sarko's desperately trying to court her vote; so hopefully Mélenchon can at least have that effect.

...so that Hollande is forced to look like an extremist, loses votes to the centre and allows Sarko to win. Great idea.

"Hollande is forced to look an extremist" = appealing to the Left. If he did that to the point he'd be alienating centrist voters, he'd inevitably gain those Left voters, making it nowhere near the losing strategy you purport it to be and one where the Left doesn't overly worry itself about appealing to the centre - I do think that'd be great, yeah.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on March 24, 2012, 11:16:29 AM
We need a strong Left Front in the Legislative, to force Hollande to really rule from left, not to be some awful centre-leftist.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 24, 2012, 11:39:53 AM
Well it may be true he can't win, but then neither can Le Pen and yet Sarko's desperately trying to court her vote; so hopefully Mélenchon can at least have that effect.

...so that Hollande is forced to look like an extremist, loses votes to the centre and allows Sarko to win. Great idea.

"Hollande is forced to look an extremist" = appealing to the Left. If he did that to the point he'd be alienating centrist voters, he'd inevitably gain those Left voters, making it nowhere near the losing strategy you purport it to be and one where the Left doesn't overly worry itself about appealing to the centre - I do think that'd be great, yeah.

Really ? He already called for a 75% marginal tax rate - what I had done in Atlasia and which was ridiculed by everybody, even the most leftist people (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=131287.0). How do you want him to be more left-wing without scaring every single centrist and push them back in Sarko's hands ? I'm sorry, but this is not going to work. Whether or not we like this, there are centrists too and we can' win without attracting some of them. That doesn't mean we should become like them, but we can't spend all our energies hunting for extremist votes either. Your strategy is part of the reason why the left loses so often.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 24, 2012, 04:22:35 PM
Merkel calls it for François Hollande as she prepares herself for his "eventual victory".
http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2012/03/24/merkel-hollande-sarkozy-allemagne_n_1376843.html?ref=france

Although, I hope President Hollande makes it as awkward for these right-wing governments (Cameron, Merkel, Rajoy, etc.) when it comes to their reelection bids as they've made it for him.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 25, 2012, 01:05:19 PM
Well it may be true he can't win, but then neither can Le Pen and yet Sarko's desperately trying to court her vote; so hopefully Mélenchon can at least have that effect.

...so that Hollande is forced to look like an extremist, loses votes to the centre and allows Sarko to win. Great idea.

"Hollande is forced to look an extremist" = appealing to the Left. If he did that to the point he'd be alienating centrist voters, he'd inevitably gain those Left voters, making it nowhere near the losing strategy you purport it to be and one where the Left doesn't overly worry itself about appealing to the centre - I do think that'd be great, yeah.

Really ? He already called for a 75% marginal tax rate - what I had done in Atlasia and which was ridiculed by everybody, even the most leftist people (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=131287.0). How do you want him to be more left-wing without scaring every single centrist and push them back in Sarko's hands ? I'm sorry, but this is not going to work. Whether or not we like this, there are centrists too and we can' win without attracting some of them. That doesn't mean we should become like them, but we can't spend all our energies hunting for extremist votes either. Your strategy is part of the reason why the left loses so often.


The problem with a 75% rate at any level of income above the bottom is that one of two things occurs:

1) Those who can get their income below that level use whatever means possible to do so (whether it be loopholes or making less income or whatever).
2) Those who can't, leave.

Therefore, irregardless of the outcome, your tax revenue actually goes down due to the above factors (or at best does not change).

When the US had the opebo rate (95%, then 70% above a certain number) from World War II to 1981, I can guarantee you that no one ever paid it unless they were idiots (like the Beatles in 1960s in England, which also had the 95% rate).  What happened was that income got pushed into expenditures like pensions and health care, which were cheap at that time, but ballooned later (a lot of today's problems in these areas are precisely due to this earlier misallocation of resources), or people used the loopholes to shelter money to ensure that taxable income was never above the danger level. (pre-1986 tax code in US was just insane in this regard - all interest could be written off, same with real estate expenditures, there were so many other loopholes, was just hilarious)

There's a little debate as to what the best level is for taxes where you don't see the above occur - I personally think it starts to level off at 55% total (not just marginal rate, but all taxes).  Torie thinks 60%.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 25, 2012, 05:01:47 PM
Is Sarkozy seriously getting a bump from this Mohamed Merah thing? What a dumb bunch of terrified little xenophobes the French apparently are.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 26, 2012, 11:36:58 AM
Any debates scheduled yet?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 26, 2012, 01:06:20 PM

TVs don't do debate before the 1st round, because they would be legally obliged to have all 10 candidates participate and let them talk the exact same amount of time (which they don't want by any means). There is THE debate, which happens between the two rounds, and usually a couple days before the vote. It is unclear whether a debate has ever changed the outcome of an election (there might be a case for 1974).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: rob in cal on March 26, 2012, 03:57:14 PM
I was pleased to learn that Sarkozy, Hollande and I'm guessing Le Pen as well, all support the reintroduction of proportional representation to National Assembly elections.  I'm wondering if the issue is being brought up much in the campaign and how people are responding to it.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 26, 2012, 04:08:42 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #47 - 26 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.6 / 0.2   


      

Hollande   28,20
Sarkozy   27,69
Le Pen   15,69
Bayrou   12,49
Mélenchon   11,06
Joly   2,38
(Villepin)   0,47
(Lepage)   0,21
Dupont-Aignan   0,91
Arthaud   0,41
Poutou   0,45
Cheminade   0,04


Hollande   55,04
Sarkozy   44,96


In 6 months, it'll be OK for Sarkozy: he'll be above 50 :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on March 26, 2012, 04:24:09 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #47 - 26 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.6 / 0.2   


      

Hollande   28,20
Sarkozy   27,69
Le Pen   15,69
Bayrou   12,49
Mélenchon   11,06
Joly   2,38
(Villepin)   0,47
(Lepage)   0,21
Dupont-Aignan   0,91
Arthaud   0,41
Poutou   0,45
Cheminade   0,04


Hollande   55,04
Sarkozy   44,96


In 6 months, it'll be OK for Sarkozy: he'll be above 50 :P


Don't give up!!!!! Sarkozy can still win.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on March 26, 2012, 04:37:34 PM
This is Sarkozy after/during a surge, and I highly doubt he'll be able to sustain that for the next month.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 26, 2012, 06:52:10 PM
Unemployment rate's fallen! SARKOMENTUM!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 27, 2012, 02:13:02 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #47 - 26 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.6 / 0.2   


      

Hollande   28,20
Sarkozy   27,69
Le Pen   15,69
Bayrou   12,49
Mélenchon   11,06
Joly   2,38
(Villepin)   0,47
(Lepage)   0,21
Dupont-Aignan   0,91
Arthaud   0,41
Poutou   0,45
Cheminade   0,04


Hollande   55,04
Sarkozy   44,96


In 6 months, it'll be OK for Sarkozy: he'll be above 50 :P


Don't give up!!!!! Sarkozy can still win.

As a voter, I never give up ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 27, 2012, 03:09:17 AM
Sarkozy seems to have settled on 46% right now, unable to break 47%.

Which is what the new Ipsos and IFOP polls say.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 27, 2012, 03:19:23 AM
IFOP's latest breakdown on how the support goes from the first round candidates to the second round candidates:

Intentions de vote au premier tour en %   François Hollande   Nicolas Sarkozy   Ne se prononcent pas

Jean-Luc Mélenchon    79   5   16
François Hollande    99   –   1
Eva Joly    68   11   21
François Bayrou    32   43   25
Nicolas Sarkozy    2   95   3
Marine Le Pen    31   39   30

http://www.parismatch.com/Actu-Match/Politique/Actu/Sondage-Ifop-Fiducial-Paris-Match.-La-double-incertitude-385387

Currently, it looks like Sarkozy is slightly winning Bayrou's and LePen's voters, but many would also stay at home.

If he can appeal to them, maybe he can close the gap in round 2.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on March 27, 2012, 05:29:36 AM

Actually wasn't there a slight bump?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on March 27, 2012, 05:31:38 AM

I pretty sure I read yesterday than unemployment raised for the tenth month in a row in France.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 27, 2012, 06:50:49 AM
IFOP's latest breakdown on how the support goes from the first round candidates to the second round candidates:

Intentions de vote au premier tour en %   François Hollande   Nicolas Sarkozy   Ne se prononcent pas

Jean-Luc Mélenchon    79   5   16
François Hollande    99   –   1
Eva Joly    68   11   21
François Bayrou    32   43   25
Nicolas Sarkozy    2   95   3
Marine Le Pen    31   39   30

http://www.parismatch.com/Actu-Match/Politique/Actu/Sondage-Ifop-Fiducial-Paris-Match.-La-double-incertitude-385387

Currently, it looks like Sarkozy is slightly winning Bayrou's and LePen's voters, but many would also stay at home.

If he can appeal to them, maybe he can close the gap in round 2.

Beware !
For IPSOS, it's
Mélenchon 84 - 3 - 13
Bayrou 32 - 28 - 40
Le Pen 13 - 52 - 35 (pretty in line with a BVA poll last week; whereas, for Bayrou, BVA was more in line with IFOP).
I'll publish the numbers tonight (but on my blog, sorry).

So, it's unclear where Sarkozy will win in the second round: more on Bayrou or more on Le Pen ?
Logically, these 2 "stocks" of voters exclude each other and Sarkozy can't gain on each front.
Except if he is more convincing than Hollande overall, which is highly doubtful.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: tpfkaw on March 27, 2012, 11:49:41 AM
What's with Sarkozy/Hollande voters?  Just statistical noise?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 27, 2012, 12:06:25 PM

There's always been in most runoffs 0-2% of voters who claim to have voted for a candidate qualified for the runoff only in the first round and then voted for his rival in the runoff. I don't know who these people are, if they actually exist and why their voting habits are so weird. I would guess some really fickle people who have a Josh-Winston like change of ideology, or undecided voters who have a genuine change of mind, people who like to fool around, people who like Sarkozy but don't want him to win (or people who like Hollande but don't want him to win) or people who take this field of joke candidates as they are: jokes.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 27, 2012, 12:08:43 PM
IPSOS uses to be quite favorable to Hollande, and it has him at 54%... You can understand my concerns.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 27, 2012, 01:56:29 PM
If you look over precinct-by-precinct results, you realize that some such people do exist.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 27, 2012, 03:57:06 PM
IPSOS uses to be quite favorable to Hollande, and it has him at 54%... You can understand my concerns.

Read my latest article on vote transfers and you'll be even more worried ;D

Though I can understand that you can be a bit febrile (is it correct in English ?) :(
But, well, there is still a comfortable margin, eh ? we are the 27th day of March, remember ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 27, 2012, 05:45:55 PM
If you look over precinct-by-precinct results, you realize that some such people do exist.

There are certainly a bunch of FN voters who don't vote for the FN candidate(s) qualified in the runoff either because they're lucid enough to realize that it's useless to vote FN in all but a few areas because they can't win; or because their first round vote was a protest vote and they vote seriously in the runoff for a guy who can win/least worst option.

But afaik, for the mainstream parties, in the few modern cases where they poll lower in the runoff than in the first round, it is usually due to changes in turnout resulting from changes in mobilization of voter bases or local factors.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 28, 2012, 01:24:37 PM
The FN is trolling my inbox now because I'm registered to vote. Getting constant emails from Nico and Fredo Lefebvre was apparently not good enough.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 29, 2012, 05:57:50 AM
53-47 in CSA this morning: excruciating, Antonio, isn't it ? ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 29, 2012, 08:27:25 AM
53-47 in CSA this morning: excruciating, Antonio, isn't it ? ;)


I give up.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on March 29, 2012, 09:35:29 AM
53-47 in CSA this morning: excruciating, Antonio, isn't it ? ;)


I give up.

I can feel your pain :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 29, 2012, 11:23:46 AM

Remember when Sarkozy was trailing by 63-37 ? These were the good times ... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 29, 2012, 11:39:55 AM

Remember when Sarkozy was trailing by 63-37 ? These were the good times ... :P

Yeah, they were... I knew it wouldn't last... but damn, couldn't we settle on 57-43 ? :(


Anyways, let's have a look at the horror :

()

()

Sarko hasn't overtaken Hollande yet here. Maybe you should switch your weighting to 1/0.5 by next monday instead of in two weeks, Fab ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 29, 2012, 11:43:40 AM
If anybody seriously believed Hollande would/will win by anything over 8-10 points, they needed/need to get their head checked (and read my blog). Mitterrand didn't defeat a terrible candidate like Chirac by anymore than 54-46 in 1988, and Charles fu-king De Gaulle didn't win by anymore than 10 points in 1965.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 29, 2012, 11:52:33 AM
If anybody seriously believed Hollande would/will win by anything over 8-10 points, they needed/need to get their head checked (and read my blog). Mitterrand didn't defeat a terrible candidate like Chirac by anymore than 54-46 in 1988, and Charles fu-king De Gaulle didn't win by anymore than 10 points in 1965.

I didn't believe it at any point of the campaign, until basically late february - early March. Then I saw polls remaining steady despite Sarko's candidacy and all his agitation... and I started dreaming. I was stunned by how late and sudden this "return to normality" has been. But yeah, for a couple weeks, I actually thought this could last.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on March 29, 2012, 02:13:39 PM
Damn, I'm getting really nervous now. 


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 29, 2012, 02:15:28 PM
Damn, I'm getting really nervous now. 

I refuse to believe that the PS, or the European Left in general, could be so inept to let this one slip from their fingers. I just refuse to believe it.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on March 29, 2012, 02:20:27 PM
Damn, I'm getting really nervous now. 

I refuse to believe that the PS, or the European Left in general, could be so inept to let this one slip from their fingers. I just refuse to believe it.

I'll be LMAO if France proves you wrong. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Beet on March 29, 2012, 03:33:34 PM
Wow, Melenchon is surging. I've suspected for a while now that there's a lot of room for an anti-neoliberal alternative on the left. I wouldn't be surprised if he were taking votes from both Hollande and Le Pen. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on March 29, 2012, 04:00:54 PM
Well, if Hollande loses this, that's not a sign of his or the PS's ineptness. They haven't done anything spectacularly wrong*, nor have they been especially unlucky. What on earth it would prove, I'm not really sure.


*: At the very least they have done nothing that would warrant going from 63-37 to losing the election.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: rob in cal on March 29, 2012, 04:25:25 PM
What will be happening with the National Assembly if Hollande is elected President?  Can he dissolve it early, and would he want to if he only wins over Sarkozy by a small amount?  Has
cohabitation been discussed on the campaign trail?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 29, 2012, 05:02:14 PM

Remember when Sarkozy was trailing by 63-37 ? These were the good times ... :P

Yeah, they were... I knew it wouldn't last... but damn, couldn't we settle on 57-43 ? :(


Anyways, let's have a look at the horror :

()

()

Sarko hasn't overtaken Hollande yet here. Maybe you should switch your weighting to 1/0.5 by next monday instead of in two weeks, Fab ?

Are you masochistic ?!
I won't change my weighting: that would give too much importance to Sarkozy and Mélenchon and I prefer to make it fit to the official campaign (new posters, even more equal time).

"Don't worry", even without changing the weighting, Sarkozy will be ahead of Hollande.

Hash is right in reminding us that absolutely any candidate would have signed immediately for a 54-46 average... and I've said again and again that with such a crisis, such unemployment rates and ten years in power, you MUST lose.

But... there is the bad trend for Hollande... and the way he doesn't change anything to his campaign: being able to adapt a bit can be a good thing, sometimes :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on March 29, 2012, 05:08:19 PM
What will be happening with the National Assembly if Hollande is elected President?  Can he dissolve it early, and would he want to if he only wins over Sarkozy by a small amount?  Has
cohabitation been discussed on the campaign trail?

Under the Quinquennat National Assembly elections are held a few months after the Presidential Election anyway, if that's what you're asking. So, normally speaking Hollande shouldn't worry about cohabitation. I have no idea whether we should expect that election to be competitive, but I suppose a leftwing win would be very, very likely after a Hollande victory.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on March 29, 2012, 06:23:46 PM
What will be happening with the National Assembly if Hollande is elected President?  Can he dissolve it early, and would he want to if he only wins over Sarkozy by a small amount?  Has
cohabitation been discussed on the campaign trail?

The NA ends its constitutional term in June, so it isn't as if it can be dissolved early at this stage. The conventional wisdom is for a fairly straightforward left-wing victory if Hollande wins, perhaps not along the lines of 1981 but along the lines of 1988 or 1997. If Sarkozy does win, there is a larger chance that the UMP finds itself in a minority/losing situation, but cohabitation is an unpopular idea (and most politicians act as if it is a thing of the past since Jospin-Chirac changed the electoral calendar).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 29, 2012, 06:26:12 PM
Well, if Hollande loses this, that's not a sign of his or the PS's ineptness. They haven't done anything spectacularly wrong*, nor have they been especially unlucky. What on earth it would prove, I'm not really sure.


*: At the very least they have done nothing that would warrant going from 63-37 to losing the election.

The highlighted part is the problem. They (the Hollande campaign) haven't done much, or at least not enough to get sufficient media coverage. His total inaudibility from his primary win to the Bourget speech (apart from unfortunate blunders reagarding the PS-greens policy agreement) cost him a lot of points from november to january. His Bourget speech, and then his "operation 75%" were enough to stop the bleeding for more than two months, but now he seems to have become inaudible again...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Sam Spade on March 29, 2012, 09:30:04 PM
If anybody seriously believed Hollande would/will win by anything over 8-10 points, they needed/need to get their head checked (and read my blog). Mitterrand didn't defeat a terrible candidate like Chirac by anymore than 54-46 in 1988, and Charles fu-king De Gaulle didn't win by anymore than 10 points in 1965.

This is quite correct.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on March 30, 2012, 02:15:45 AM
What will be happening with the National Assembly if Hollande is elected President?  Can he dissolve it early, and would he want to if he only wins over Sarkozy by a small amount?  Has
cohabitation been discussed on the campaign trail?

The NA ends its constitutional term in June, so it isn't as if it can be dissolved early at this stage. The conventional wisdom is for a fairly straightforward left-wing victory if Hollande wins, perhaps not along the lines of 1981 but along the lines of 1988 or 1997. If Sarkozy does win, there is a larger chance that the UMP finds itself in a minority/losing situation, but cohabitation is an unpopular idea (and most politicians act as if it is a thing of the past since Jospin-Chirac changed the electoral calendar).

Elections are on 10th and 17th of June.

In 2002, the right won because people didn't want another cohabitation. This time, it's different, as memories are short-lived... So, I guess the left would won like in 1997 if Sarkozy is reelected. Unless there is an electoral agremment UMP-FN, which would create a war in the centre-right, but could prevent the UMP from losing seats in the South-East and the margins of the Great East.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 30, 2012, 08:31:18 AM
Hollande should be fine so long as he continues to avoid major fyck ups. In the end, and at the end, this is about the Poison Dwarf and not him.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 30, 2012, 10:08:41 AM
Hollande should be fine so long as he continues to avoid major fyck ups. In the end, and at the end, this is about the Poison Dwarf and not him.
If that were still true, they'd still be polling in the high 50s.

We are basically talking about Europe's dumbest right wing troll here.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 30, 2012, 12:14:27 PM
Hollande should be fine so long as he continues to avoid major fyck ups. In the end, and at the end, this is about the Poison Dwarf and not him.
If that were still true, they'd still be polling in the high 50s.

We are basically talking about Europe's dumbest right wing troll here.

Since Berlusconi left, yes.

I'm glad to see I'm not the only one who thinks so. I might be biased, but anyone having a quick look at his term can realize how much of a failure he was.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 30, 2012, 12:22:24 PM
Berlusconi was utterly delusional and an even worse crook than Sarko, but I never thought him dumb.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 30, 2012, 12:24:07 PM
Ok, enough with the silly talk. Just post the polls showing Hollande with a 0.3% lead in the second round or whatever.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 30, 2012, 02:07:07 PM
Can someone of the French posters please translate some of this:

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1818-1-study_file.pdf

It's a poll about sex practices among the voters or French political parties.

I only got that FN and Far Left voters have the most sex each month, the most sex partners and the most experience with anal sex.

But some of the other questions I didn't understand.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on March 30, 2012, 02:19:35 PM
Is that really appropriate here?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 30, 2012, 02:43:28 PM
Can someone of the French posters please translate some of this:

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1818-1-study_file.pdf

It's a poll about sex practices among the voters or French political parties.

I only got that FN and Far Left voters have the most sex each month, the most sex partners and the most experience with anal sex.

But some of the other questions I didn't understand.

I can, but maybe we should take it to a different thread.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Vosem on March 30, 2012, 02:58:06 PM
Can someone of the French posters please translate some of this:

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1818-1-study_file.pdf

It's a poll about sex practices among the voters or French political parties.

I only got that FN and Far Left voters have the most sex each month, the most sex partners and the most experience with anal sex.

But some of the other questions I didn't understand.

I can, but maybe we should take it to a different thread.

I would very much like to see this.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on March 30, 2012, 05:44:10 PM
carfeful : this note is a google translation. Apologize by advance for this ugly english


Tonight, in the daily IFOP poll : 44% total left

this figure seems both very low, after 10 years of Sarkozyism, and very high, given the catastrophic results of the left all presidential period except 74-88


Holland should be the candidate's usual PS score between 22 and 25%

remains between 18 and 23% for the rest of the left according to the two hypotheses (holland at 22 or 25, left at 40 or 45)


if bayrou remains at 10, still 50% between Sarko, MLP and dupont.

10 of 30 pts sarko of 2007 came from the EXD. It seems for now to have succeeded once again to win them over, leaving MLP to 20 or 15 (assuming non-left at 60 or 55)

for Sarko, if the left are 45, it drops to 25.

If 50% of Sarko-Frontists the 2007 MLP return home, it gives sarko 25 (40% left) or sarko 20 (45% left), and MLP 20 (40% left) or 25 (45% left)



good, then I would not consider the electronic machines to vote, deubeulou-like, which are obviously there to defraud.


Another hypothesis, a collapse of Holland and rising méluche. Let 5% of the debris left from the left (artaud, Poutou, joly) was either 40 or 35% to be divided between the two candidates.

The PS is the party scores the most volatile electoral history. So we could hypothetically have 20/20 between the two, or even 25-15 advantage Mélenchon, but I doubt it anyway.


In short, bayrou seems out of the game in 2007, he took advantage of the massive rejection of royal from a lot of people left and  rejection of Sarko's right-handed speech.

But the other four can qualify. Only final not: Holland vs Mélenchon.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 30, 2012, 06:13:28 PM
Can you post it in French?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 30, 2012, 09:19:19 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/francois-hollande/9138802/France-election-2012-Francois-Hollande-team-says-Nicolas-Sarkozy-like-a-British-Conservative-PM.html

François, president!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 30, 2012, 09:26:22 PM
To which Sarko should reply: "I'll take it as a compliment." Now if only he can bait Hollande into calling him a liberal... then he'd hit the rhetorical jackpot.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 31, 2012, 04:46:50 AM
To which Sarko should reply: "I'll take it as a compliment." Now if only he can bait Hollande into calling him a liberal... then he'd hit the rhetorical jackpot.

Haha, no. French are no big fans of Thatcher.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on March 31, 2012, 06:01:11 AM
I'd view it as a compliment, but I doubt the French would.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 31, 2012, 07:47:06 AM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/francois-hollande/9138802/France-election-2012-Francois-Hollande-team-says-Nicolas-Sarkozy-like-a-British-Conservative-PM.html

François, president!

NORMAL POSITION CAUSES CONTROVERSY IN FRANCE; EXPECT RIOTING SOON


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on March 31, 2012, 03:04:20 PM

ce soir, dans le sondage quotidien de l'IFOP-MEDEF, total gauches 44%

ce chiffre me semble à la fois très faible, après 10 ans de sarkozysme, et bien haut, étant donné les résultats catastrophiques des gauches à toutes les présidentielles, période 74-88 exceptée


hollande devrait faire le score habituel du candidat PS, entre 22 et 25%

reste entre 18 et 23% pour le reste des gauches selon les deux hypothèses (hollande à 22 ou 25, gauches à 40 ou 45)


si bayrou reste à 10, reste 50 % entre sarko, MLP et dupont.

10 des 30 pts de sarko de 2007 venaient de l'EXD. Il semble pour le moment avoir réussi une fois de plus à les séduire, ce qui laisse MLP à 20 ou 15 (hypothèse non-gauches à 60 ou à 55)

pour sarko, si les gauches font 45, ça tombe à 25.

Si 50 % des sarko-frontistes de 2007 reviennent chez MLP, ça donne sarko 25 (gauches à 40%) ou sarko 20 (gauches à 45%), et MLP 20 (gauches à 40%) ou 25 (gauches à 45%)



bon, là, je tiens pas compte des machines électroniques à voter, deubeulou-like, qui sont évidemment là pour frauder.


Autre hypothèse, un effrondrement de hollande et une montée de méluche. Laissons 5 % aux débris de la gauche de la gauche (artaud, poutou, joly), on a soit 40 soit 35 % à se partager entre les deux candidats.

Le PS est le parti aux scores les plus instables de l'histoire électorale. Donc on pourrait hypothétiquement avoir 20/20 entre les deux, voire 25-15 avantage mélenchon, mais ça m'étonnerait quand même.


Bref, bayrou me semble out du jeu. En 2007, il avait profité du rejet massif de royal de la part d'un bon nombre de gens de gauche et du rejet du discours droitier de sarko.

Mais les 4 autres peuvent se qualifier. Seule finale impossible : hollande vs mélenchon.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 01, 2012, 03:41:18 PM
Ifop published a study on Melenchon's electorate:

Average: 13%

Males: 15% vs. Females: 12%
18-24: 16% (up 10)
25-34: 12% (up 6)
35-49: 14% (up 6)
50-64: 17% (up 7)
65+: 9% (up 1)
Public employees: 17% (up 7)
Private employees: 14% (up 6)
Employers, independent workers: 10% (up 6)

Insee socio-demographic category (expanded)

Artisans, commerçants, agriculteurs, chefs d'entreprise: 10% (+5)
Professions libérales et assimilés: 11% (+6)
Cadres d'entreprise (administratifs et commerciaux, ingénieurs et cadres techniques): 9% (+4)
Cadres de la fonction publique (professions scientifiques, professions de l'information, des arts et spectacles, enseignants, …): 17% (+9)
Professions intermédiaires de la fonction publique et assimilés, de la santé et du travail social: 19% (+5)
Professions administratives et commerciales des entreprises, techniciens, contremaîtres et agents de maîtrise: 15% (+4)
Employés civils et agents de service de la fonction publique, policiers et militaires: 12% (+5)
Employés administratifs d'entreprise, employés de commerce: 15% (+10)
Personnels des services directs aux particuliers (assistantes maternelles, concierges, aides à domicile, coiffeurs, …): 8% (+1)
Ouvriers qualifiés: 15% (+6)
Ouvriers non qualifiés: 20% (+10)

2007 vote:

Besancenot: 63% (+25)
Buffet: 76% (+2)
Bove/Voynet: 26% (+8)
Crazy Lady: 15% (+8)
Bayrou: 11% (+6)
JMLP: 3% (+2)
Nico: 2% (+1)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 01, 2012, 09:13:16 PM
Economist editorial. Can't say I disagree with them, quite the opposite.

http://www.economist.com/node/21551461


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 01, 2012, 09:39:21 PM
@Hashemite: Interesting that the far-leftie does well with white collars, cops and military.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 02, 2012, 02:32:03 AM
@Hashemite: Interesting that the far-leftie does well with white collars, cops and military.

Beware: these categories are large, but the samples tiny.
And Mélenchon isn't strong among military and cops, but among "employés et agents de service de la fonction publique", i.e. low civil servants.
As for white collars, he is strong among PUBLIC white collars... Well, are uni professors and teachers really "cadres supérieurs" nowadays ? I doubt it fiercely... :P
And France is the paradise for "social sciences" teachers... ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 02, 2012, 03:29:24 AM
Economist editorial. Can't say I disagree with them, quite the opposite.

http://www.economist.com/node/21551461

Same old platitudes regarding "conpetitivity", too much taxes, lazy workers, etc ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on April 02, 2012, 04:20:18 AM
Economist editorial. Can't say I disagree with them, quite the opposite.

http://www.economist.com/node/21551461

Quite a reasonable and realistic description, yes.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 02, 2012, 05:58:48 AM
@Hashemite: Interesting that the far-leftie does well with white collars, cops and military.

He isn't. Cevipof-Ifop's recent study on public employees and their voting patterns revealed cops/military to be the only right-leaning group. For example, they estimated their 2007 vote as being 54% right, 24% EXD and 18% leftie. They estimated their voting intentions as MLP 37%, Sarko 27%, Bayrou 11%, abstention 10%, left 11% (back when Sarkozy was polling much lower).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Iannis on April 02, 2012, 07:25:54 AM
Economist editorial. Can't say I disagree with them, quite the opposite.

http://www.economist.com/node/21551461

I completely agree. In particular:

"The French live with this national contradiction—enjoying the wealth and jobs that global companies have brought, while denouncing the system that created them—because the governing elite and the media convince them that they are victims of global markets. Trade unionists get far more air-time than businessmen."

People simply don't realize where the wealth comes from, the productivity of large companies, they think that it comes from State's social services, while they are just a consequence of that productivity. Like in Italy in the media, in school, in universities, only rhetoric of trade union, of left-leaning teachers are heard, companies' world is quite mysterious and misundesrtood. French people will wake up quite hardly. Too bad they will just blame the evil anglo-saxon or german capitalist instead than themselves.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 02, 2012, 04:03:46 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #48 - 2 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.6 / 0.2   


      

Hollande   27,43
Sarkozy   28,23
Le Pen   15,57
Bayrou   11,67
Mélenchon   12,62
Joly   2,34
(Villepin)   0,09
(Lepage)   0,05
Dupont-Aignan   0,92
Arthaud   0,49
Poutou   0,45
Cheminade   0,15


Hollande   54,23
Sarkozy   45,77

Cheminadementum ! ;D

More seriously, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande for the first time in the history of this tracker... and Mélenchon is now in 4th position.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 02, 2012, 07:48:16 PM
Sarkozy will be re-elected.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: LastVoter on April 02, 2012, 11:32:24 PM
Just like Santorum will win the Republican Nomination.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on April 03, 2012, 12:21:00 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #48 - 2 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.6 / 0.2   


      

Hollande   27,43
Sarkozy   28,23
Le Pen   15,57
Bayrou   11,67
Mélenchon   12,62
Joly   2,34
(Villepin)   0,09
(Lepage)   0,05
Dupont-Aignan   0,92
Arthaud   0,49
Poutou   0,45
Cheminade   0,15


Hollande   54,23
Sarkozy   45,77

Cheminadementum ! ;D

More seriously, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande for the first time in the history of this tracker... and Mélenchon is now in 4th position.


Fabulous!!!!! :D Now let's just hope Mélenchon is makes it to the second round, and Sarkozy will have cake walk.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 03, 2012, 02:07:23 AM
I despise wishful thinking, wherever it comes from.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 03, 2012, 04:18:03 AM
It's somewhat amusing to see American Republicans cheer on someone who openly supports Obama (http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/07/sarkozy_endorses_obama). ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 03, 2012, 08:12:46 AM
A map of who signed for who (also includes the party affiliation of the elected official who signed)...

http://owni.fr/2012/04/01/app-quel-candidat-votre-elu-a-t-il-parraine/


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 03, 2012, 09:55:55 AM
It's somewhat amusing to see American Republicans cheer on someone who openly supports Obama (http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/07/sarkozy_endorses_obama). ;)

My comments aren't cheering; they are a prediction. I've soured on Sarkozy since 2007 anyway (though I obviously prefer him to Hollande).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 03, 2012, 09:57:10 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-03/hollande-widens-second-round-lead-over-sarkozy-poll-shows-1-.html

Hollande ahead 28-27 in the premier tour and extending he lead to 56-44 in the deuxieme tour. As I type this, i'm listening to Hollande attacking Melenchon (or, atleast, dissuading left voters from making a protest vote for him), live in Blois. Finally a change of strategy?

No idea why the Hollande campaign uses Daily Motion over Youtube though.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 03, 2012, 11:22:03 AM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-03/hollande-widens-second-round-lead-over-sarkozy-poll-shows-1-.html

Hollande ahead 28-27 in the premier tour and extending he lead to 56-44 in the deuxieme tour. As I type this, i'm listening to Hollande attacking Melenchon (or, atleast, dissuading left voters from making a protest vote for him), live in Blois. Finally a change of strategy?

No idea why the Hollande campaign uses Daily Motion over Youtube though.

So, we have 56% according to BVA, 55% according to IPSOS, 54% according to LH2, 53.5% according to IFOP and 53% according to Harris. Looks like the uncertainty is increasing again.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 03, 2012, 11:34:55 AM
I had a dream last night in which Sarkozy popped up and the number "48%".

Don't know though if this is from a future poll or the election night result, or nothing at all.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 03, 2012, 11:37:28 AM
I had a dream last night in which Sarkozy popped up and the number "48%".

Don't know though if this is from a future poll or the election night result, or nothing at all.

If the final result is 52/48 (whoever the winner is) I will curse you.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 03, 2012, 01:16:01 PM
Are there any polls on who would win in a Melenchon-Le Pen second round? (Obviously not a possibility, but still).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 03, 2012, 01:19:50 PM
Are there any polls on who would win in a Melenchon-Le Pen second round? (Obviously not a possibility, but still).

French pollsters don't have much imagination. But my guts say Mélenchon would win with around 54-55. "La bête immonde" still scares more people than "le couteau entre les dents" (for now).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 03, 2012, 03:43:54 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-03/hollande-widens-second-round-lead-over-sarkozy-poll-shows-1-.html

Hollande ahead 28-27 in the premier tour and extending he lead to 56-44 in the deuxieme tour. As I type this, i'm listening to Hollande attacking Melenchon (or, atleast, dissuading left voters from making a protest vote for him), live in Blois. Finally a change of strategy?

No idea why the Hollande campaign uses Daily Motion over Youtube though.

So, we have 56% according to BVA, 55% according to IPSOS, 54% according to LH2, 53.5% according to IFOP and 53% according to Harris. Looks like the uncertainty is increasing again.

IPSOS and IFOP are the best, so I guess it's still 54 ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 06, 2012, 11:46:02 AM
()

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 06, 2012, 04:53:47 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 06, 2012, 04:55:30 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 06, 2012, 04:59:06 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

I know right. If Hollande's campaign is even half good, they'll take such an accusation by the neck and tells voters that France's only in such a state because of Sarko and the Right who've been there for the past 17 years.

Right-wing governments really take things to a new low when it looks like they'll lose. I'm just waiting for Sarko's "New Labour, New Danger" moment.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on April 06, 2012, 05:10:02 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 06, 2012, 05:13:17 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

The same Merkel-Sarko-Rajoy-Cameron-Monti consensus is making the problem worse and not better though, to be fair.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Beet on April 06, 2012, 05:14:32 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 06, 2012, 05:17:27 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

I sort've agree. This one "one voice, one solution, ignore everything else" mentality of the big EU governments is doing none of us any good. I want to see Hollande elected for various reasons, but the most pressing reason now is so as to get more voices round the table.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 06, 2012, 05:21:46 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

I sort've agree. This one "one voice, one solution, ignore everything else" mentality of the big EU governments is doing none of us any good. I want to see Hollande elected for various reasons, but the most pressing reason now is so as to get more voices round the table.

European leftist have surely their fair share of repsonsibility, for utterly giving up to the neoliberal right in the past two decades. However, while I don't know if the European left will save Europe, what I know for sure is that with the European right, Europe is screwed. Hollande might not be what we need today, but it's the only realistic possibility we have to avoid the worse.

(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for Italy and Germany as well, in 2013).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 06, 2012, 05:24:45 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

I sort've agree. This one "one voice, one solution, ignore everything else" mentality of the big EU governments is doing none of us any good. I want to see Hollande elected for various reasons, but the most pressing reason now is so as to get more voices round the table.

European leftist have surely their fair share of repsonsibility, for utterly giving up to the neoliberal right in the past two decades. However, while I don't know if the European left will save Europe, what I know for sure is that with the European right, Europe is screwed. Hollande might not be what we need today, but it's the only realistic possibility we have to avoid the worse.

(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for Italy and Germany as well, in 2013).

Lest we forget the UK in 2015.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 06, 2012, 05:46:41 PM
Which crisis do you mean? Half the problem is that there's more than one, even if they're related.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 07, 2012, 05:05:34 AM

(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for  Germany as well, in 2013).
Unless something really major happens to the SPD - either a dramatic turnaround and policy renewal or a wholesale collapse - fuggeddaboudit.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 07, 2012, 05:07:08 AM
Which crisis do you mean? Half the problem is that there's more than one, even if they're related.

The key of the problem is, IMO, the lack of coordination in economic policies at the European level. In short, we need EuroBonds to end the debt crisis once forever, and we need a pan-european stimulus bill to restore growth.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 07, 2012, 05:08:31 AM

(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for  Germany as well, in 2013).
Unless something really major happens to the SPD - either a dramatic turnaround and policy renewal or a wholesale collapse - fuggeddaboudit.

Even if we don't get a fully left-wing coalition, getting rid the FDP will be a great step forward nonetheless.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 07, 2012, 06:03:21 AM
Not much of one in regard to Crisis politics. :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 07, 2012, 06:53:44 AM
PSOE is really angry with Sarkozy. Everytime I watch the news or open "El Pais" there's a new commentary of a socialist politician demmanding Sarko to apologize for what he said (that with the left in France, the country would have been in the same situation that Spain or Greece).

One thing is true. The situation hasn't improved with Rajoy as President. Zapatero kept us below 400 points in the risk premium. Last Thursday it was at 410 IIRC. And workers have lost rights and can be fired more easily now, students like me are seeing the education go worse each year (thanks, Esperanza Aguirre), social security with PP isn't a priority... They're destroying the welfare state and the economy isn't improving (even if it was, I think it isn't worth of it if we don't have a reasonable education, rights, social security, etc)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 07, 2012, 02:24:49 PM
One thing is true. The situation hasn't improved with Rajoy as President. Zapatero kept us below 400 points in the risk premium. Last Thursday it was at 410 IIRC. And workers have lost rights and can be fired more easily now, students like me are seeing the education go worse each year (thanks, Esperanza Aguirre), social security with PP isn't a priority... They're destroying the welfare state and the economy isn't improving (even if it was, I think it isn't worth of it if we don't have a reasonable education, rights, social security, etc)

()

I understand.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on April 08, 2012, 11:27:14 AM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

I sort've agree. This one "one voice, one solution, ignore everything else" mentality of the big EU governments is doing none of us any good. I want to see Hollande elected for various reasons, but the most pressing reason now is so as to get more voices round the table.

European leftist have surely their fair share of repsonsibility, for utterly giving up to the neoliberal right in the past two decades. However, while I don't know if the European left will save Europe, what I know for sure is that with the European right, Europe is screwed. Hollande might not be what we need today, but it's the only realistic possibility we have to avoid the worse.

(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for Italy and Germany as well, in 2013).

Lest we forget the UK in 2015.
Wtf?  Not unless Labour dumps Miliband in favor of someone better, and I can't even think of anyone at this point.  If they switch to his brother, it'll be of no difference whether or not they win, because he's a neoliberal warmongering Blairite who's hardly any different from Cameron.  Harriet Harperson definitely won't be able to win.  Neither will Sadiq Khan, Douglas Alexander, Yvette Cooper or any other non-Blairite. And I could almost even classify Ed Balls as Blairite at this point because of his endorsement of austerity.  Same with Ed Miliband.  They won't win until 2020, and if Scotland seceeds, maybe later.  It won't be until the next generation that a Labour victory will be both possible and meaningful at all.  And frankly, Chukah Umunna has been disappointing me tons lately by saying that he doesn't care about bankers getting huge bonuses.  Rachel Reeves has too by letting Ed Miliband and Ed Balls usurp her. 


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 08, 2012, 12:02:54 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

I sort've agree. This one "one voice, one solution, ignore everything else" mentality of the big EU governments is doing none of us any good. I want to see Hollande elected for various reasons, but the most pressing reason now is so as to get more voices round the table.

European leftist have surely their fair share of repsonsibility, for utterly giving up to the neoliberal right in the past two decades. However, while I don't know if the European left will save Europe, what I know for sure is that with the European right, Europe is screwed. Hollande might not be what we need today, but it's the only realistic possibility we have to avoid the worse.

(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for Italy and Germany as well, in 2013).

Lest we forget the UK in 2015.
Wtf?  Not unless Labour dumps Miliband in favor of someone better, and I can't even think of anyone at this point.  If they switch to his brother, it'll be of no difference whether or not they win, because he's a neoliberal warmongering Blairite who's hardly any different from Cameron.  Harriet Harperson definitely won't be able to win.  Neither will Sadiq Khan, Douglas Alexander, Yvette Cooper or any other non-Blairite. And I could almost even classify Ed Balls as Blairite at this point because of his endorsement of austerity.  Same with Ed Miliband.  They won't win until 2020, and if Scotland seceeds, maybe later.  It won't be until the next generation that a Labour victory will be both possible and meaningful at all.  And frankly, Chukah Umunna has been disappointing me tons lately by saying that he doesn't care about bankers getting huge bonuses.  Rachel Reeves has too by letting Ed Miliband and Ed Balls usurp her. 

Ok.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on April 08, 2012, 02:41:47 PM

Wtf?  Not unless Labour dumps Miliband in favor of someone better, and I can't even think of anyone at this point.  If they switch to his brother, it'll be of no difference whether or not they win, because he's a neoliberal warmongering Blairite who's hardly any different from Cameron.  Harriet Harperson definitely won't be able to win.  Neither will Sadiq Khan, Douglas Alexander, Yvette Cooper or any other non-Blairite. And I could almost even classify Ed Balls as Blairite at this point because of his endorsement of austerity.  Same with Ed Miliband.  They won't win until 2020, and if Scotland seceeds, maybe latHer.  It won't be until the next generation that a Labour victory will be both possible and meaningful at all.  And frankly, Chukah Umunna has been disappointing me tons lately by saying that he doesn't care about bankers getting huge bonuses.  Rachel Reeves has too by letting Ed Miliband and Ed Balls usurp her. 
[/quote]

Ok.
[/quote]
Sorry I ranted.  I have a bad habit of that lol...it's just...I'm really sickened by how right-wing the Labour Party has become.  And the next generation looked promising, but they've been brainwashed by their elders.  And honestly, I also have a really hard time seeing Miliband beat Cameron in the next election, not only because their policies are almost identical, but he's also a laughing stock. 


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 09, 2012, 02:49:27 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #49 - 9 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.5   


      

Hollande   27,33
Sarkozy   28,39
Le Pen   15,31
Bayrou   10,86
Mélenchon   13,54
Joly   2,23
Dupont-Aignan   0,98
Arthaud   0,66
Poutou   0,63
Cheminade   0,08


Hollande   54,27
Sarkozy   45,73


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on April 10, 2012, 12:26:39 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #49 - 9 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.5   


      

Hollande   27,33
Sarkozy   28,39
Le Pen   15,31
Bayrou   10,86
Mélenchon   13,54
Joly   2,23
Dupont-Aignan   0,98
Arthaud   0,66
Poutou   0,63
Cheminade   0,08


Hollande   54,27
Sarkozy   45,73


Will Sarkozy get a poll boost from winning the first round?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 10, 2012, 06:03:35 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #49 - 9 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.5   


      

Hollande   27,33
Sarkozy   28,39
Le Pen   15,31
Bayrou   10,86
Mélenchon   13,54
Joly   2,23
Dupont-Aignan   0,98
Arthaud   0,66
Poutou   0,63
Cheminade   0,08


Hollande   54,27
Sarkozy   45,73


Will Sarkozy get a poll boost from winning the first round?

He got a slight boost in 2007 IIRC.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 10, 2012, 07:19:33 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #49 - 9 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.5   


      

Hollande   27,33
Sarkozy   28,39
Le Pen   15,31
Bayrou   10,86
Mélenchon   13,54
Joly   2,23
Dupont-Aignan   0,98
Arthaud   0,66
Poutou   0,63
Cheminade   0,08


Hollande   54,27
Sarkozy   45,73


Will Sarkozy get a poll boost from winning the first round?

He got a slight boost in 2007 IIRC.

Post 1st-round boosts don't really depend on actual performances as much as they depend on the difference between those performances and expectations (a bit like, in the US, the result of a State Primary affects pollings in other States). If Sarko does significantly better than what polling suggests, he might get a boost, but otherwise probably not.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 10, 2012, 08:41:35 AM
In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 10, 2012, 10:17:26 AM
In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

Yep, it wasn't big in 2007.
This time, it'll be the same thing. Sarkozy may expect a 1st round result better than expectations. BUT, in the same time, the leftists will be afraid of a "comeback kid" effect and, as a consequence, the turnout inside the left will be better, erasing any real boost for Sarkozy.

C'est cuit, les gars... :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 10, 2012, 10:55:16 AM
In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

Wait, you mean Mitterrand was only leading 51-49 in 1988 before the 1st round ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 10, 2012, 10:58:58 AM
In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

Wait, you mean Mitterrand was only leading 51-49 in 1988 before the 1st round ?

No, he led 53-47 in the final poll before the first round and led 56-44 in the first poll after the first round. Hence a 3 point boost for him.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 10, 2012, 11:01:35 AM
In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

Wait, you mean Mitterrand was only leading 51-49 in 1988 before the 1st round ?

No, he led 53-47 in the final poll before the first round and led 56-44 in the first poll after the first round. Hence a 3 point boost for him.

That was an exceptionally strong and short-lived boost in this case. ;) Or, more likely, something to do with margins of error.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 10, 2012, 01:44:22 PM
So, Mélenchon's past comments on Brittany and our language has thoroughly disgusted me, so at this stage it seems like I'll vote for Eva Joly or spoil my ballot.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 10, 2012, 03:34:17 PM
What did he say ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 10, 2012, 04:42:20 PM
In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

Wait, you mean Mitterrand was only leading 51-49 in 1988 before the 1st round ?

No, he led 53-47 in the final poll before the first round and led 56-44 in the first poll after the first round. Hence a 3 point boost for him.

That was an exceptionally strong and short-lived boost in this case. ;) Or, more likely, something to do with margins of error.

Well, Sarko enjoyed a similar boost just after Bayrou-Royal drama and his debate with her ;D
But it was so short-lived that, during the last Friday and Saturday, 2% of people, so disgusted by Royal, thought it was too much for them to vote for Sarkozy... ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 10, 2012, 04:44:27 PM
So, Mélenchon's past comments on Brittany and our language has thoroughly disgusted me, so at this stage it seems like I'll vote for Eva Joly or spoil my ballot.

Why not trying Arthaud or Dupont-Aignan ?
After all, for one or two weeks, they've been the most coherent and the clearest of all, I think...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 12, 2012, 09:56:11 AM
New LH2 poll having it at 29.5 for Hollande and Sarko at 27 with Mélenchon falling 2% (and into 4th place behind Marine Le Pen) to 13% in the premier tour.

Hollande leads 55-45 in the deuxieme tour.

Mélenchonists getting scared of letting Sarko back in? We've seen the Sarkomentum splutter out a bit in the part week or so.

http://lci.tf1.fr/politique/elections-presidentielles/sondage-le-pen-en-hausse-hollande-victorieux-de-sarkozy-7129149.html


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 12, 2012, 06:26:02 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2012/04/12/sarkozy-obama-we-will-win-video_n_1421269.html?ref=france

Sarko to Obama: "We'll will, you and me".

Oh god...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 06:31:35 PM
ABS sentiment is undoubtedly bubbling again.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 13, 2012, 05:14:44 AM
Apparently, a Swedish girl has made a fan video for Melenchon called "Conquer me, Jean-Luc" because when she saw him at a campaign event ahead of 120.000 supporters she fell in love with his charisma ... :P

http://derstandard.at/1334132456965/Uebernimm-die-Macht-ueber-mich-Jean-Luc-Schwedische-Unterstuetzung-fuer-Melenchon


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 13, 2012, 05:32:18 AM
Apparently, a Swedish girl has made a fan video for Melenchon called "Conquer me, Jean-Luc" because when she saw him at a campaign event ahead of 120.000 supporters she fell in love with his charisma ... :P

http://derstandard.at/1334132456965/Uebernimm-die-Macht-ueber-mich-Jean-Luc-Schwedische-Unterstuetzung-fuer-Melenchon

Having a hot swede fall in love with you is probably the wet dream of every left-winger. ;) Though maybe Mélenchon would prefer cubans... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 13, 2012, 08:04:43 AM
She needs to know that Melenchon probably hates everybody who doesn't lick his feet, so he'd probably slap her for being a "petty bourgeois" or something.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 13, 2012, 08:20:42 PM
Extremely late I know, but here are the usual graphs :

()

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 13, 2012, 08:51:02 PM
I hope than the current trend continue and than Hollande pass in front or Sarkozy again.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 13, 2012, 09:06:11 PM
Oh wow, only just realised how close the first round is. François, President!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2012, 06:05:10 AM
The most recent polls seem to give Hollande a small edge (even though it might be due to their bias). Basically, OpinionWay and IFOP have Sarko ahead (by 1 and 1.5 respectively) whereas LH2, BVA, TNS-Sofres and CSA see Hollande back in lead (by 2.5, 3, 2 and 1). OpinionWay and IFOP usually tend to favor Sarko whereas LH2 and BVA tend to favor Hollande. CSA seems to be especially crappy this year and Sofres has been quite weird. So, I'd say it is either a virtual tie or a small edge to Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on April 14, 2012, 07:19:18 AM
So what are the odds of Sarkozy pulling this off?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2012, 07:25:33 AM
So what are the odds of Sarkozy pulling this off?

With my usual pessimism, I'd give him 10%. I'm pretty sure Nate would give him less than 5%.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on April 14, 2012, 07:34:11 AM
So what are the odds of Sarkozy pulling this off?

With my usual pessimism, I'd give him 10%. I'm pretty sure Nate would give him less than 5%.

Oh that sure of it? For some reason I was still thinking about 2:1 odds or so.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2012, 07:50:53 AM
So what are the odds of Sarkozy pulling this off?

With my usual pessimism, I'd give him 10%. I'm pretty sure Nate would give him less than 5%.

Oh that sure of it? For some reason I was still thinking about 2:1 odds or so.

He's polling at 45-46 with 3 weeks left. That means he would have to pick up 1.5 point per week to win. You'll agree that in our electoral experience this doesn't happen quite often.

Note that 10% is still far from "almost impossible". I'm pretty sure that Fabien would be even more confident over the outcome.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on April 14, 2012, 08:01:19 AM
Sorry :) Haven't been following the everyday events closely. Just had it in my head that Sarkozy was much stronger than anyone would have expected, look for a closer race, etc.

Thanks for the information.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2012, 08:13:11 AM
Sorry :) Haven't been following the everyday events closely. Just had it in my head that Sarkozy was much stronger than anyone would have expected, look for a closer race, etc.

Thanks for the information.

He made pretty impressive gains in the second half of March, overtaking Hollande in the first round and improving his 2nd round performance from 43-44 to 46-47, but nowadays his momentum is gone, and he's back to a virtual tie in the 1st round and a 45-46 score in the second. The trends in the final weeks before the 1st round will be important to follow, but I doubt he could pull any upset at this point (his best chance would be to beat Hollande and perform over 30% so as to get a post-results bounce, but he's far from reaching this goal).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 14, 2012, 08:34:16 AM
Yeah, Sarkozy seems to have fallen back again from 46/47% to about 44% recently. And also in the 1st round he seems to be slightly behind. Any reasons for that ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2012, 08:42:16 AM
Yeah, Sarkozy seems to have fallen back again from 46/47% to about 44% recently. And also in the 1st round he seems to be slightly behind. Any reasons for that ?

His campaign has been particularly inaudible these recent times, with the presentation of his official program being an utter flop and his recent nitpicking on unimportant issues like driver's licence. The fact that, the official campaign having begun, all candidates are entitled to the exact same airtime on radio and TV, also prevents him from monopolising attention as he constantly strives to.

Hollande hasn't done much recently, but my impression is that voters are apreciating his constance and his reluctance to change his political positioning and strategy at every occasion as Sarkozy does. He's clearly seen as a reassuring figure and Sarkozy has so far been unable to damage this image.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 14, 2012, 08:51:46 AM
Yeah, Sarkozy seems to have fallen back again from 46/47% to about 44% recently. And also in the 1st round he seems to be slightly behind. Any reasons for that ?

His campaign has been particularly inaudible these recent times, with the presentation of his official program being an utter flop and his recent nitpicking on unimportant issues like driver's licence. The fact that, the official campaign having begun, all candidates are entitled to the exact same airtime on radio and TV, also prevents him from monopolising attention as he constantly strives to.

Hollande hasn't done much recently, but my impression is that voters are apreciating his constance and his reluctance to change his political positioning and strategy at every occasion as Sarkozy does. He's clearly seen as a reassuring figure and Sarkozy has so far been unable to damage this image.

I've read in my "Standard" newspaper (http://derstandard.at/r2171/Frankreich) that I subscribe to that because the media has to give every candidate the same airtime now and because there are some crazy candidates in there the media doesn't really want to report about, the media isn't airing that much about the major candidates either compared with previous campaigns. True ?

What about Melenchon ? Do you think he might surprise on election day and get close to 20%, taking votes away from Hollande ? Or do you think he will get close to 20%, yet Hollande still wins ? Or do you think Melenchon will flop ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 14, 2012, 09:25:54 AM
I've read in my "Standard" newspaper (http://derstandard.at/r2171/Frankreich) that I subscribe to that because the media has to give every candidate the same airtime now and because there are some crazy candidates in there the media doesn't really want to report about, the media isn't airing that much about the major candidates either compared with previous campaigns. True ?

That might be true to some extent, even though 2012 is certainly not the worst campaign in terms of crazy candidates sh*tfest (see 2002 as the absolute worst). There haven't been much news about the presidential campaign in the last day, apart from the usual "XXX is holding a meeting in YYY today" (and they also mentioned the "prends le pouvoir sur moi" clip on the radio today ;)). I'd understand pretty well if media don't want to spend all this time talking about Lyndon LaRouche Jr., Philippe "Smack" or the stalinist lady (who, hilariously, is an economics teacher).


Quote
What about Melenchon ? Do you think he might surprise on election day and get close to 20%, taking votes away from Hollande ? Or do you think he will get close to 20%, yet Hollande still wins ? Or do you think Melenchon will flop ?

That's getting weird. The two most recent polls (CSA and TNS) have shown him at unseen heights (17% and 16% respectively), whereas the preceding ones seemed to suggest he had peaked at 14% and was starting to decrease a bit. CSA has an epically poor track record, constantly showing results very far from the consensus among pollsters and in a very erratic and illogical way (for example, this poll also showed Hollande losing 2 points and Sarrko losing 4(!) while the second round was back to early march levels - 57/43). TNS-sofres is a bit less erratic, but hasn't polled much in this cycle so it has to be taken carefully. So, so far, it's hard to tell. Personally, I have a hard time seeing Mélenchon above 15% (considering the left's tendency to regroup among Hollande to make sure he's not in danger) and since Le Pen has solidified her support to 15-16%, I don't think he will overtake her. There is still a possibility, of course.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: © tweed on April 15, 2012, 12:03:26 PM
no chance of Melenchon nipping Hollande (or Sarko) at the wire, right?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 15, 2012, 02:03:44 PM
no chance of Melenchon nipping Hollande (or Sarko) at the wire, right?

Nope.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 15, 2012, 03:45:05 PM
I saw today in our news that Sarkozy is taking heat from all quarters for his stunt of airing his (supposedly ultra-secret) teleconference with Obama in order to give the impression that Obama is somehow endorsing him for reelection. Is that true?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 15, 2012, 06:02:17 PM
no chance of Melenchon nipping Hollande (or Sarko) at the wire, right?

It's not 1969 anymore, so non.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 15, 2012, 06:02:43 PM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/15/sarkozy-obama-videoconference-tv-stunt

Reminds me of an episode of The Thick of It when a dying government gets the celebrities in to try and connect with the public:

Quote
"We are a dying government! Our hair's falling out and we're coughing up blood and our kids are asking us to change the will."

Sums up the Sarko campaign fairly well.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 16, 2012, 03:50:24 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #50 - 16 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.5   


      

Hollande   27,71
Sarkozy   27,72
Le Pen   15,48
Bayrou   10,07
Mélenchon   14,11
Joly   2,41   
Dupont-Aignan   1,12   
Arthaud   0,68
Poutou   0,63
Cheminade   0,06

Hollande   54,67
Sarkozy   45,33

This 0.01 hasn't been done on purpose :P

Bah... What can I say... The worst country, the worst right, the worst candidate...

Vive Alain Juppé !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 16, 2012, 04:03:44 PM
0.01% ? ROFL ;D

So, the final version of your tracker will only include polls from today to friday 20 ? How many can we expect in these 5 days ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 17, 2012, 08:39:14 AM
Chirac to vote for Hollande.... (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17739199)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 17, 2012, 08:58:54 AM
Chirac to vote for Hollande.... (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17739199)

Sarkosurge Part II on the way!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2012, 10:55:01 AM
Chirac to vote for Hollande.... (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17739199)

He had said that long ago. ;)

But still, what an ridiculous situation for Sarko...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 17, 2012, 11:04:20 AM
Chirac to vote for Hollande.... (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17739199)

He had said that long ago. ;)

But still, what an ridiculous situation for Sarko...

L'air de la Corrèze.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 17, 2012, 11:12:24 AM
Chirac probably voted for Royal in 2007, and if he didn't it's only because she was a mentally unstable psycho. He might have voted Bayrou, but he hates him too.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 17, 2012, 11:36:37 AM
I know it's not the best story to have a prominent member of your party broadcast that they are voting against you but is this really bad for Sarkozy overall? Isn't Chirac unpopular?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2012, 11:40:12 AM
I know it's not the best story to have a prominent member of your party broadcast that they are voting against you but is this really bad for Sarkozy overall? Isn't Chirac unpopular?

No, he's become very popular since he left office.

(...which comes as a confirmation of the fact the French are morons, but that's besides the point)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on April 17, 2012, 11:42:06 AM
(...which comes as a confirmation of the fact the French are morons, but that's besides the point)

I'm sure Phil will have no trouble agreeing with that :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 17, 2012, 11:46:18 AM
(...which comes as a confirmation of the fact the French are morons, but that's besides the point)

I'm sure Phil will have no trouble agreeing with that :)

;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2012, 11:53:39 AM
(...which comes as a confirmation of the fact the French are morons, but that's besides the point)

I'm sure Phil will have no trouble agreeing with that :)

;)

Italians are even dumber, however. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 17, 2012, 11:56:20 AM
(...which comes as a confirmation of the fact the French are morons, but that's besides the point)

I'm sure Phil will have no trouble agreeing with that :)

;)

Italians are even dumber, however. ;)

I don't know if they are dumber but I always laughed with an anecdote a friend of mine told me when we were in the Navy:

-What book you won't find in any library of the world, even the biggest and more prestigious ones?

-"Italy's Military Triumphs".


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: tpfkaw on April 17, 2012, 11:57:48 AM
(...which comes as a confirmation of the fact the French are morons, but that's besides the point)

I'm sure Phil will have no trouble agreeing with that :)

;)

Italians are even dumber, however. ;)

I don't know if they are dumber but I always laughed with an anecdote a friend of mine told me when we were in the Navy:

-What book you won't find in any library of the world, even the biggest and more prestigious ones?

-"Italy's Military Triumphs".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Empire


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 17, 2012, 12:04:20 PM
(...which comes as a confirmation of the fact the French are morons, but that's besides the point)

I'm sure Phil will have no trouble agreeing with that :)

;)

Italians are even dumber, however. ;)

And you say this about your own blood. Disgraceful. Anyway, let's get back on topic, boys: Sarkozy will be re-elected.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 17, 2012, 12:12:08 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Empire

Actually this deserves a facepalm but because I'm in good mood today I'll just say to you that we are talking about the state of Italy which was founded in 1861.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 17, 2012, 12:26:54 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Empire

Actually this deserves a facepalm but because I'm in good mood today I'll just say to you that we are talking about the state of Italy which was founded in 1861.
...as a result of some smashing military victories.

Against Austrians and other Italians, admittedly, so I guess it doesn't count, but still. :)

Anyhow, lol Chirac. Oh well, he is from the Chiraquerie after all.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: tpfkaw on April 17, 2012, 12:28:43 PM
Well let's check the record; the reunified Italy actually won most of its wars (if only because they tended to pick on weak opponents or choose the winning side).

Won:

Austro-Prussian War (on a technicality)
Occupation of the Papal States
Occupation of Eritrea
Boxer Rebellion
Italo-Ottoman War
World War I
Second Italo-Ethiopian War
Occupation of Albania

Lost:

First Italo-Ethiopian War
World War II


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: YL on April 17, 2012, 12:30:37 PM
Is Sarkozy likely to get much momentum if he pips Hollande in the first round?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 17, 2012, 12:34:49 PM
Well let's check the record; the reunified Italy actually won most of its wars (if only because they tended to pick on weak opponents or choose the winning side).

Won:

Austro-Prussian War (on a technicality)
Occupation of the Papal States
Occupation of Eritrea
Boxer Rebellion
Italo-Ottoman War
World War I
Second Italo-Ethiopian War
Occupation of Albania

Lost:

First Italo-Ethiopian War
World War II

LOL! Yeah, come tell me how many wars Italians won. I am very impressed.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 17, 2012, 12:38:56 PM
0.01% ? ROFL ;D

So, the final version of your tracker will only include polls from today to friday 20 ? How many can we expect in these 5 days ?

I'll keep, for 50%, all the polls of the previous week too.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Simfan34 on April 17, 2012, 03:21:25 PM
Well let's check the record; the reunified Italy actually won most of its wars (if only because they tended to pick on weak opponents or choose the winning side).

Won:

Austro-Prussian War (on a technicality)
Occupation of the Papal States
Occupation of Eritrea
Boxer Rebellion
Italo-Ottoman War
World War I
Second Italo-Ethiopian War
Occupation of Albania

Lost:

First Italo-Ethiopian War
World War II

LOL! Yeah, come tell me how many wars Italians won. I am very impressed.


I am here to contest the claim that the Second Italo-Ethiopian War was "won" by Italy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 17, 2012, 03:27:00 PM
I predicted a 51.5% to 48.5% win for Hollande back in January....I think I'm sticking by that.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on April 17, 2012, 03:45:34 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Empire

Actually this deserves a facepalm but because I'm in good mood today I'll just say to you that we are talking about the state of Italy which was founded in 1861.
...as a result of some smashing military victories.

Against Austrians and other Italians, admittedly, so I guess it doesn't count, but still. :)

The French won the 1859 war for them and their ineptness on the battlefield in 1866 arguably cost them Venezia Giulia and Trentino at that date. So it certainly doesn't count ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 17, 2012, 04:04:04 PM
I predicted a 51.5% to 48.5% win for Hollande back in January....I think I'm sticking by that.

Probably generous to Sarko there


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 17, 2012, 04:05:14 PM
If Hollande wins, he's the first left-winger in one of the big EU countries to win without swinging right since...?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2012, 04:07:28 PM
(...which comes as a confirmation of the fact the French are morons, but that's besides the point)

I'm sure Phil will have no trouble agreeing with that :)

;)

Italians are even dumber, however. ;)

And you say this about your own blood. Disgraceful. Anyway, let's get back on topic, boys: Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Being loyal to my origins doesn't mean being deluded about my compatriots. Fact is, all the people of all countries in the earth are, in majority, a bunch of idiots. Recognizing this historical truth doesn't mean betraying them or rejecting them (since, fundamentally, it is not really their fault but that of the society they grew into).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2012, 04:08:18 PM
If Hollande wins, he's the first left-winger in one of the big EU countries to win without swinging right since...?

Jospin, I guess. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 17, 2012, 04:32:20 PM
I don't understand either Phil or Wormyguy's presence in this thread.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 17, 2012, 04:34:18 PM
Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 17, 2012, 04:37:29 PM
Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on April 17, 2012, 04:43:44 PM
Why introduce that lunatic? :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 17, 2012, 04:43:54 PM
Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 17, 2012, 04:45:18 PM

Comic Relief. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 17, 2012, 04:55:29 PM
Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

Don't understand why he hasn't joined UKIP yet.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2012, 05:58:30 PM
Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

Don't understand why he hasn't joined UKIP yet.

Or why he hasn't taken American nationality and joined the GOP.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: © tweed on April 17, 2012, 06:45:16 PM
are there any Melenchon vs Sarko polls being done for fun or academics?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2012, 07:43:08 PM
are there any Melenchon vs Sarko polls being done for fun or academics?

Nope. That would be interesting to see (so would all the possible combinations between Hollande, Sarko, Le Pen, Mélenchon and Bayrou) but pollsters are somewhat realistic.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 17, 2012, 07:44:44 PM

This post is so Winfieldesque.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Vosem on April 17, 2012, 08:43:53 PM
Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 17, 2012, 09:18:20 PM
I don't understand either Phil or Wormyguy's presence in this thread.

You've contributed so much.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 17, 2012, 09:19:44 PM

I'm not a Sarkozy fanboy so...no, not quite.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: LastVoter on April 17, 2012, 09:21:08 PM
Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).
Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 17, 2012, 09:30:02 PM
I don't understand either Phil or Wormyguy's presence in this thread.

You've contributed so much.

Well I shouldn't have said that, I know. I actually do understand your presence in this thread, since it's about just getting on the nerves of lefties, but Wormyguy's weirdly random stubborn posturing over Italy's record (or lack thereof) of military accomplishment completely baffles me.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 17, 2012, 09:35:00 PM
I don't understand either Phil or Wormyguy's presence in this thread.

You've contributed so much.

Well I shouldn't have said that, I know. I actually do understand your presence in this thread, since it's about just getting on the nerves of lefties, but Wormyguy's weirdly random stubborn posturing over Italy's record (or lack thereof) of military accomplishment completely baffles me.

Actually, no, I'm really following the race so that's why I'm posting here.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 17, 2012, 09:41:02 PM
I suppose it's just a difference in posting philosophy. I follow international election threads pretty much constantly, but I only rarely post in them unless I have anything to add. Wormyguy's posts did get me curious about his motivations, though. Purely for my own purposes. Oh well.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Vosem on April 17, 2012, 09:43:07 PM
Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).
Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...
No, absolutely not. http://www.economist.com/node/12607041?story_id=12607041


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: LastVoter on April 17, 2012, 11:59:35 PM
Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).
Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...
No, absolutely not. http://www.economist.com/node/12607041?story_id=12607041
The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it. Just the mention of Europe will have neutrons firing off Socialism in his brain. This is pretty much like calling Obama a socialist.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 18, 2012, 04:33:57 AM
I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:

In the coming months ?? The countdown in my sig indicates the number of days left, FYI.


Quote
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).

Even if you exclude social issues, the GOP is still insane. Even the UMP is saner on that regard.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Vosem on April 18, 2012, 05:51:48 AM
Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).
Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...
No, absolutely not. http://www.economist.com/node/12607041?story_id=12607041
The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it. Just the mention of Europe will have neutrons firing off Socialism in his brain. This is pretty much like calling Obama a socialist.
The Economist does tilt to the right, but this article includes the following specific excerpts I was trying to point out:

Quote from: The Economist
He has declared that “laissez-faire capitalism is over” and railed against the “dictatorship of the market”. He is setting up a “strategic national investment fund” to take stakes in French companies so as to protect them from foreign predators. His prime minister, François Fillon, has threatened to nationalise banks unless they lend more to companies. And Mr Sarkozy has also pledged to create 100,000 state-subsidised jobs of just the sort favoured by a former Socialist government, which he denounced vigorously during his election campaign.

This lurch to the left has not gone unremarked by real socialists. Martin Schulz, German leader of the Socialist group in the European Parliament, has congratulated the French president for “speaking like a real European socialist”. It was a taunt that the president chose, uncharacteristically, not to dismiss. “Have I become socialist?” he wondered. “Perhaps.” The ambiguity is such that some on the left now see a need to reclaim their ideology. A testy Pierre Moscovici, a French Socialist, insisted to the newspaper Le Parisien recently that “No, Mr Sarkozy is not a socialist.”
I think most Democrats wouldn't even contemplate some of the actions in the first paragraph (though, then again, some would). And then, in the second paragraph, we see Moscovici saying Sarkozy isn't left-wing enough, which proves my basic point.

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:

In the coming months ?? The countdown in my sig indicates the number of days left, FYI.

I feel dumb; you got me. Somehow I was under the impression that the first round would take place in July and the runoff in August -- stupid here.

Quote
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).

Even if you exclude social issues, the GOP is still insane. Even the UMP is saner on that regard.

To a French Socialist, the UMP is "saner" than the GOP. To somebody who would be critical of a nationwide universal health-care plan, critical of a lack of nationwide gun rights, and so on and so forth, the GOP is "saner" than the UMP.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on April 18, 2012, 07:45:08 AM
polls trends seems clear : MLP will be close-to-close with NS sunday.

Maybe a final FH-MLP?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 18, 2012, 10:24:14 AM
Who would win in a hypothetical second round between Mélenchon and Le Pen?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 18, 2012, 10:43:42 AM
Who would win in a hypothetical second round between Mélenchon and Le Pen?

Mélenchon, I think.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on April 18, 2012, 12:59:56 PM
It's pretty ridiculous that no pollster's polled these hypothetical match-ups.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 18, 2012, 02:09:05 PM
polls trends seems clear : MLP will be close-to-close with NS sunday.

Maybe a final FH-MLP?

I don't know where you get this idea from, but it isn't backed by any data. Sarko is gonna finish 10+ points higher than Le Pen unless something changes dramatically.


It's pretty ridiculous that no pollster's polled these hypothetical match-ups.

Not, it isn't. The likelihood of such scenario is neglectable.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 18, 2012, 02:46:30 PM
Maybe CSA which seems to be trolling around with a 58-42 runoff and Sarko at 24%.

On a side note, I got sent the ballots and campaign lit for all candidates by the embassy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 18, 2012, 04:11:22 PM
Maybe CSA which seems to be trolling around with a 58-42 runoff and Sarko at 24%.

Looks like CSA will once again be the epic fail of this election.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 18, 2012, 04:19:03 PM
Maybe CSA which seems to be trolling around with a 58-42 runoff and Sarko at 24%.

Looks like CSA will once again be the epic fail of this election.

Imagine if François actually won 58-42 though... We can dream.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on April 18, 2012, 04:28:39 PM
It's pretty ridiculous that no pollster's polled these hypothetical match-ups.

Not, it isn't. The likelihood of such scenario is neglectable.

*Negligible. Of course it is. Putting aside its likeliness, it's interesting to see on a psephological basis the potential support levels each could garner, and to compare them to historical trends. Most people interested in polling would also be interested in seeing such a run-off's effects. It's not as if there's a plethora of candidates to make this a difficult task, this election's been conveniently condensed down to five candidates, two of which - the likely contenders - having been (extensively) polled already.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 18, 2012, 06:44:04 PM
I'm reading in the UK press that the Sarko campaign's got to that inevitable point of every losing campaign: senior allies (Fillon, et al.) are starting to point fingers.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on April 18, 2012, 07:03:27 PM
polls trends seems clear : MLP will be close-to-close with NS sunday.

Maybe a final FH-MLP?

I don't know where you get this idea from, but it isn't backed by any data. Sarko is gonna finish 10+ points higher than Le Pen unless something changes dramatically.






well...We'll see sunday (sunday after 20h for me, I don't want to know before via twitter or facebook, i wanna the excitation of the last minute before 20:00 )


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on April 18, 2012, 07:21:16 PM
It's pretty ridiculous that no pollster's polled these hypothetical match-ups.

Not, it isn't. The likelihood of such scenario is neglectable.

I'm surprised the silly ZOMG all candidates must have the exact amount of media attention rule doesn't force pollsters to poll all candidates in the 2nd round. I mean how awful to actually aknowledge that some candidates are less relevant.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: LastVoter on April 18, 2012, 08:40:02 PM
Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).
Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...
No, absolutely not. http://www.economist.com/node/12607041?story_id=12607041
The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it. Just the mention of Europe will have neutrons firing off Socialism in his brain. This is pretty much like calling Obama a socialist.
The Economist does tilt to the right, but this article includes the following specific excerpts I was trying to point out:

Quote from: The Economist
He has declared that “laissez-faire capitalism is over” and railed against the “dictatorship of the market”. He is setting up a “strategic national investment fund” to take stakes in French companies so as to protect them from foreign predators. His prime minister, François Fillon, has threatened to nationalise banks unless they lend more to companies. And Mr Sarkozy has also pledged to create 100,000 state-subsidised jobs of just the sort favoured by a former Socialist government, which he denounced vigorously during his election campaign.

This lurch to the left has not gone unremarked by real socialists. Martin Schulz, German leader of the Socialist group in the European Parliament, has congratulated the French president for “speaking like a real European socialist”. It was a taunt that the president chose, uncharacteristically, not to dismiss. “Have I become socialist?” he wondered. “Perhaps.” The ambiguity is such that some on the left now see a need to reclaim their ideology. A testy Pierre Moscovici, a French Socialist, insisted to the newspaper Le Parisien recently that “No, Mr Sarkozy is not a socialist.”
I think most Democrats wouldn't even contemplate some of the actions in the first paragraph (though, then again, some would). And then, in the second paragraph, we see Moscovici saying Sarkozy isn't left-wing enough, which proves my basic point.


Sarkozy is a Statist who favors the rich. Hollande is "Socialist"who favors state solutions that benefit the have-nots. Democrats cannot pass left-wing legislation because of a right-wing faction in their party(Blue dogs), I think we call agree that the dogs are right-wingers. Also depending on your ideology you might think that the (New) Democratic party itself is right-wing. There are a few right-wingers that are congratulating Obama behind the scenes for passing right-wing laws too. They can't do it openly because of self-censure(aka the RINO phenomenon).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Sam Spade on April 18, 2012, 09:45:05 PM
Even though I don't understand a word of French, I am often forced to watch more of this election than I want to for personal reasons.  I have no preferences, as the French quasi-monarchy/top-down-run bureaucratic super-structure is perhaps the least innovative and most necessary of complete demolition in Europe (if not the world), so it's not like any particular option changes this state of events.

1) The numbers have long suggested that Sarkozy is toast. (like for the past year).  Probably a 1% chance that I'm wrong here, and it may well depend on Hollande showing he is incompetent somehow (possible).
2) I really don't understand why the Socialists want to be in power now, of all times, as when they get in, they're soon going to have start f-ing their own constituency base because they will have no choice (see Zapatero).  But when Mickey Mouse (or French equivalent) can likely win, you really have no other option, I guess.
3) As above, I don't understand French, but I do watch for other things, and I can tell you that Hollande will be a bad president at a time when France will not need one.  You will probably get something a whole lot worse the next time around, and that person may actually have talent.

That is all for now.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: HST1948 on April 18, 2012, 09:45:54 PM
Maybe CSA which seems to be trolling around with a 58-42 runoff and Sarko at 24%.

Looks like CSA will once again be the epic fail of this election.

Imagine if François actually won 58-42 though... We can dream.

CSA does seem like it is an outlier, but CSA and some other polls that I have seen seem to have shown a slight trend back to Hollande over the last week or so.  Is this real, or just something that I am reading too far into. If it is real, what is its cause (could it be the video of the video of video conferance between Sarko and Obama?).  I've try to keep up with that polls and analysis by reading http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/, but alas by French is lacking, and translators can only do so much. I apologize for my lack of knowledge, but am interested in hearing what everyone has to say.  


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Volrath50 on April 18, 2012, 10:29:27 PM
This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed. :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 19, 2012, 01:53:18 AM
Even though I don't understand a word of French, I am often forced to watch more of this election than I want to for personal reasons.  I have no preferences, as the French quasi-monarchy/top-down-run bureaucratic super-structure is perhaps the least innovative and most necessary of complete demolition in Europe (if not the world), so it's not like any particular option changes this state of events.

1) The numbers have long suggested that Sarkozy is toast. (like for the past year).  Probably a 1% chance that I'm wrong here, and it may well depend on Hollande showing he is incompetent somehow (possible).
2) I really don't understand why the Socialists want to be in power now, of all times, as when they get in, they're soon going to have start f-ing their own constituency base because they will have no choice (see Zapatero).  But when Mickey Mouse (or French equivalent) can likely win, you really have no other option, I guess.
3) As above, I don't understand French, but I do watch for other things, and I can tell you that Hollande will be a bad president at a time when France will not need one.  You will probably get something a whole lot worse the next time around, and that person may actually have talent.

That is all for now.

You know what they say Sam, about how it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt?
That.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: redcommander on April 19, 2012, 02:32:33 AM
This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed. :(

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 19, 2012, 02:42:55 AM
This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed. :(

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.

I've got news for you: it was the conservatives who threw our economy off a cliff between 2004-09.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: LastVoter on April 19, 2012, 03:06:40 AM
This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed. :(

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.
No, they need to tell Germany and EU neoliberalists to [inks]  off. Considering that with France being red, it's time to turn on the neoliberalist owners and basically shutdown threaten to shutdown trade in Europe if Germany doesn't want to give France, Spain, Greece etc more favorable terms, considering they have been  those countries for past 10 years.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0a/2006German_exports.PNG


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 19, 2012, 03:43:51 AM

The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it.
Not... exactly.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: LastVoter on April 19, 2012, 03:45:40 AM

The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it.
Not... exactly.

Ok, there is  a difference between the economist and crazy, but hyperbole was necessary.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 19, 2012, 07:01:39 AM

Then I'm really afraid to ask who is your favorite. I may not like your answer ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on April 19, 2012, 11:09:09 AM
This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed. :(

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.

I've got news for you: it was the conservatives who threw our economy off a cliff between 2004-09.

Yes it was the Conservative party, but because they spent like drunk Socialists. You can hardly accuse austerity politics for the crisis in Greece. It was spending (and people not paying their taxes). Who did the spending is hardly relevant. This whole talking-point from the left that austerity politics are not the way to go, is bull.

Sweden had an economic crisis in the early 90's because both Socialist and Right-wing goverments spent and lend way too much money. Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today.   

(Not that Sarkozy would pursue a responsible Economic policy, and Hollande's talk of overturning European consensus is quite obviously just pondering to the left-wing base, so it won't really matter how this election goes.)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 19, 2012, 11:29:48 AM
This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed. :(

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.

Because the UMP aren't at all risky and have kept France in the clear...

And just look at the polls for the 2nd round, all of them so far this week have had Hollande at or above 55%. Interesting.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Sam Spade on April 19, 2012, 12:32:52 PM
Even though I don't understand a word of French, I am often forced to watch more of this election than I want to for personal reasons.  I have no preferences, as the French quasi-monarchy/top-down-run bureaucratic super-structure is perhaps the least innovative and most necessary of complete demolition in Europe (if not the world), so it's not like any particular option changes this state of events.

1) The numbers have long suggested that Sarkozy is toast. (like for the past year).  Probably a 1% chance that I'm wrong here, and it may well depend on Hollande showing he is incompetent somehow (possible).
2) I really don't understand why the Socialists want to be in power now, of all times, as when they get in, they're soon going to have start f-ing their own constituency base because they will have no choice (see Zapatero).  But when Mickey Mouse (or French equivalent) can likely win, you really have no other option, I guess.
3) As above, I don't understand French, but I do watch for other things, and I can tell you that Hollande will be a bad president at a time when France will not need one.  You will probably get something a whole lot worse the next time around, and that person may actually have talent.

That is all for now.

You know what they say Sam, about how it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt?
That.

I think that every time you post.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: tpfkaw on April 19, 2012, 12:39:21 PM
I stand by my position that either Hollande is lying about his campaign promises and he'll in fact cut deeper than Sarkozy, or France will default under his rule.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 19, 2012, 12:39:30 PM

I assure you, the feeling is mutual.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 19, 2012, 12:47:32 PM
I wonder how DSK'd be doing, sans the rape thing.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 19, 2012, 12:48:38 PM
He would have been suddenly (hilariously?) destroyed by the whole procuring thing.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Volrath50 on April 19, 2012, 01:04:45 PM
Yeah, I wish the allegations against DSK hadn't surfaced until he was the nominee, so he could epicly self destruct and not even make the second ballot.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2012, 01:10:17 PM
Same here. Though on the flip side DSK might have been the one to push ahead with serious structural reforms. Schroder, not Kohl, did the heavy entitlement lifting in Germany. Jospin privatized more than any of his rightist predecessors ever did. Hollande isn't that sort, not by a mile.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 19, 2012, 01:36:18 PM
Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today. 

The reason Sweden is not part of the crisis is because they're not part of the Eurozone.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on April 19, 2012, 02:49:13 PM
Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today. 

The reason Sweden is not part of the crisis is because they're not part of the Eurozone.

As much as I hate the Euro, the Euro itself has very little to do with wether a country's economy had a crisis or not. Some countries with the Euro, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg managed to do just fine, and some countries without it had it's economy fail misrable, such as Iceland. So no, not being part of the Euro is not what saved Sweden, although not having to bail out five, six other countries does help.

What is true though, is that being part of the Euro is a major block for Greece's and Spain's financial recovery. If they had their own currency, they could simply devalue it, which would make it cheaper for foreigner's to trade and tourism with the countries. If it's cheaper trade increases (as does tourism) and the economy slowly starts rolling again. Unfortunatley, since they thought it good policy to surrender their own currency they can't do that. So while the Euro didn't cause the problem it is making the problem worse.       


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 19, 2012, 03:45:14 PM
Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today. 

The reason Sweden is not part of the crisis is because they're not part of the Eurozone.

As much as I hate the Euro, the Euro itself has very little to do with wether a country's economy had a crisis or not.      

You're wrong. If we had our currency then we could have gone through this crisis much less painfully by devaluing it, just like Poland does.
Also we could've used inflation to lighten the private debt, which crushes our middle class families, and spur growth.

Unfortunately we are wearing a straitjacket and the only thing that troika does is ask from us to tighten it even more.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: SPQR on April 19, 2012, 04:39:37 PM
This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed. :(

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.

I've got news for you: it was the conservatives who threw our economy off a cliff between 2004-09.

Yes it was the Conservative party, but because they spent like drunk Socialists. You can hardly accuse austerity politics for the crisis in Greece. It was spending (and people not paying their taxes). Who did the spending is hardly relevant. This whole talking-point from the left that austerity politics are not the way to go, is bull.

Sweden had an economic crisis in the early 90's because both Socialist and Right-wing goverments spent and lend way too much money. Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today.   

(Not that Sarkozy would pursue a responsible Economic policy, and Hollande's talk of overturning European consensus is quite obviously just pondering to the left-wing base, so it won't really matter how this election goes.)

The problem is HOW the money is spent...productive investment can make a big deficit easily abbordable.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 19, 2012, 04:43:11 PM
You people are being boring.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on April 19, 2012, 04:57:38 PM
The quality of this thread has rapidly decreased, I see.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on April 19, 2012, 05:02:31 PM
Can this argument please be wiped off the face of the forum?



Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on April 19, 2012, 05:58:48 PM
Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today. 

The reason Sweden is not part of the crisis is because they're not part of the Eurozone.

As much as I hate the Euro, the Euro itself has very little to do with wether a country's economy had a crisis or not.      

You're wrong. If we had our currency then we could have gone through this crisis much less painfully by devaluing it, just like Poland does.

If you bothered to read my entire post you'd see that's exactly what I said.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 19, 2012, 06:09:59 PM
Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today. 

The reason Sweden is not part of the crisis is because they're not part of the Eurozone.

As much as I hate the Euro, the Euro itself has very little to do with wether a country's economy had a crisis or not.      

You're wrong. If we had our currency then we could have gone through this crisis much less painfully by devaluing it, just like Poland does.

If you bothered to read my entire post you'd see that's exactly what I said.

But the fact is that Euro caused the problem, not just aggravated it. There are countries with bigger debt than Greece that have no problem to borrow in low rates just because they still have their own currency and their own independent monetary policy.

I don't disagree that a big dose of fiscal austerity is needed in our case only (in Spain and Italy it's a disastrous recipe) but without having the flexibility of a national currency it might prove to be a costly and failed experiment.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 19, 2012, 07:30:50 PM
This discussion ends here. If you want to discuss such matters (and they aren't exactly unimportant, granted) please do so elsewhere. Further posts will be deleted, etc.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 19, 2012, 08:14:03 PM
I might as well lock this thread until Sunday. The last two days are stupid days, and this thread is a sh**tfes and has turned from bad to horrible.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 20, 2012, 06:51:34 AM
Well, today we should get back to business with the publication of Fab's final tracker. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 20, 2012, 12:08:16 PM
Yeah, I wish the allegations against DSK hadn't surfaced until he was the nominee, so he could epicly self destruct and not even make the second ballot.
Mélenchon President? I'll take it! ;D


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 20, 2012, 05:03:35 PM
BREAKING NEWS !

2012 Big Bad Tracker #51 - 20 April 2012   

The last one before the first round !!!   


      

Hollande 27,79
Sarkozy 26,98
Le Pen 15,69
Bayrou 10,32
Mélenchon 13,79
Joly 2,38   
Dupont-Aignan 1,42   
Arthaud 0,53
Poutou 1,05
Cheminade 0,06

Hollande 55,16
Sarkozy 44,84

Hollande just ahead of Sarkozy !
Dupont-Aignan surge and Poutoumentum !
Hollande over 55 in the second round !

I'll post this Saturday on my blog an anlysis of spreads between pollsters, of current trends  and, hence, what I foresee besides this tracker.

Antonio, you are free to post your graphs here ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 20, 2012, 05:18:26 PM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/18/francois-hollande-wont-change-europe

LOL at this.
Quote
Then came the Toulouse jihadist shootings. Faced with a terrorist crisis, Sarkozy was able to exploit the power of the presidency to bring order back to France. His ratings overtook those of Hollande, who also faced a challenge from Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left. Suddenly Sarkozy's re-election took on an air almost of inevitability.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 20, 2012, 05:30:04 PM
BREAKING NEWS !

2012 Big Bad Tracker #51 - 20 April 2012   

The last one before the first round !!!   


      

Hollande 27,79
Sarkozy 26,98
Le Pen 15,69
Bayrou 10,32
Mélenchon 13,79
Joly 2,38   
Dupont-Aignan 1,42   
Arthaud 0,53
Poutou 1,05
Cheminade 0,06

Hollande 55,16
Sarkozy 44,84

Hollande just ahead of Sarkozy !
Dupont-Aignan surge and Poutoumentum !
Hollande over 55 in the second round !

I'll post this Saturday on my blog an anlysis of spreads between pollsters, of current trends  and, hence, what I foresee besides this tracker.

Antonio, you are free to post your graphs here ;)

Thank you ! :) Graphs are coming soon.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 20, 2012, 05:44:05 PM
Technical note: since you updated the results for 2nd round as well, what will we do with the regular tracker of April 23 ? Will you give polls published from monday to today a lower weighting than those published right after the 1st round ? Or will you just update the 2nd round tracker while keeping the 100% weighting for these polls ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 20, 2012, 06:00:54 PM
I'll only take into account the polls of this last week. So, it will be another update of the second round tracker (but I'm sure we'll have polls for the second round on Sunday evening and on Monday morning - "le premier sondage du second tour !").


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 20, 2012, 06:18:55 PM
I'll only take into account the polls of this last week. So, it will be another update of the second round tracker (but I'm sure we'll have polls for the second round on Sunday evening and on Monday morning - "le premier sondage du second tour !").

So it won't be a real update, just a technical correction. If it's fine for you, I will include only the april 23 version in my graph, as I don't see the need for having two numbers for the same set of polls.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 20, 2012, 08:30:50 PM
Here we go !

()

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 21, 2012, 07:25:44 AM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/18/francois-hollande-wont-change-europe

LOL at this.
Quote
Then came the Toulouse jihadist shootings. Faced with a terrorist crisis, Sarkozy was able to exploit the power of the presidency to bring order back to France. His ratings overtook those of Hollande, who also faced a challenge from Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left. Suddenly Sarkozy's re-election took on an air almost of inevitability.

Isn't the Guardian supposed to be left-wing??


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 21, 2012, 07:50:23 AM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/18/francois-hollande-wont-change-europe

LOL at this.
Quote
Then came the Toulouse jihadist shootings. Faced with a terrorist crisis, Sarkozy was able to exploit the power of the presidency to bring order back to France. His ratings overtook those of Hollande, who also faced a challenge from Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left. Suddenly Sarkozy's re-election took on an air almost of inevitability.

Isn't the Guardian supposed to be left-wing??

Yeah, it's an opinion piece though.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 21, 2012, 07:51:14 AM
So... I'm off to vote. Still hesitating a bit.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 21, 2012, 07:52:20 AM
It's not as if it really matters, does it?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 21, 2012, 08:21:46 AM
So... I'm off to vote. Still hesitating a bit.

Sarko président ! ;D

Why not Dupont-Aignan ? It would be cool to see him having a big consituency in Canada and among French people abroad :P
After much analysis, we could infer some big Gaullist revival overseas ! ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 21, 2012, 08:24:22 AM

How lucky man you are !
This tracker was designed for you... Just before the end he prevails...

Now, imagine this with Aubry ;)
Maybe Mélenchon wouldn't have surged so much, but Bayrou would have been higher.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 21, 2012, 08:46:35 AM
So... I'm off to vote. Still hesitating a bit.

Go with Joly. She has nice views and is a good person.



How lucky man you are !
This tracker was designed for you... Just before the end he prevails...

Now, imagine this with Aubry ;)
Maybe Mélenchon wouldn't have surged so much, but Bayrou would have been higher.

Meh, I don't know... I think Aubry would have been lower than Hollande in the immediate post-primary season, but probably higher than him in the december-january period. Then, who knows ? Of course she was a more vulnerable to Sarko's attacks than Hollande, but she also had some advantages. Anyways, it doesn't matter anymore. ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 21, 2012, 09:00:13 AM
I voted for Eva Joly, and I'm happy with that. My mom for Sarko, my dad for Marion.

As for NDA, I'd quicker eat my hat than vote for that stupid asshat.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 21, 2012, 09:05:18 AM
Seriously? ouch'n.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 21, 2012, 09:09:09 AM
Yeah, Hash's parents sound pretty terrifying.

When do we get results? Tonight?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Andrea on April 21, 2012, 09:16:02 AM
Voters in Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, Guyane, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin have started to vote for French presidency.
Polynésie will start today at 8 PM (Paris time) and Nouvelle Caledonie at 11pm

Closing time in Outre-Mèr according to French mainland time zone:
Saint-Pierre et Miquelon: today 22:30
Guyane: today at 23:30
Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin: tonight at 0:30
Polynésie will finish tomorrow morning at 6:30
Nouvelle Caledonie: 9:30

Reunion and Mayotte will vote tomorrow: 6 AM to 4:30PM in La Reunion and 7 AM to 7:30 PM in Mayotee.

70% of municipalities will close polling stations at 18:00 tomorrow with a few cities (for ex Toulon, Béziers, Sète, Rennes, Orléans) carrying on until 19:00. Polls will close at 20:00 in Ile de France (except Seine-Marne), Nice, Marseille, Strasbourg, Reims, Montpellier, Toulouse parts of Haute-Garonne, Lyon, Villeurbanne, Grenoble, Saint-Etienne, Bordeaux, Angers and Nantes.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 21, 2012, 09:26:10 AM
70% of municipalities will close polling stations at 18:00 tomorrow with a few cities (for ex Toulon, Béziers, Sète, Rennes, Orléans) carrying on until 19:00. Polls will close at 20:00 in Ile de France (except Seine-Marne), Nice, Marseille, Strasbourg, Reims, Montpellier, Toulouse parts of Haute-Garonne, Lyon, Villeurbanne, Grenoble, Saint-Etienne, Bordeaux, Angers and Nantes).
That is seriously bizarre.

And is also why (as claimed over in another thread) results and exit polls start leaking before 8.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 21, 2012, 09:55:55 AM
70% of municipalities will close polling stations at 18:00 tomorrow with a few cities (for ex Toulon, Béziers, Sète, Rennes, Orléans) carrying on until 19:00. Polls will close at 20:00 in Ile de France (except Seine-Marne), Nice, Marseille, Strasbourg, Reims, Montpellier, Toulouse parts of Haute-Garonne, Lyon, Villeurbanne, Grenoble, Saint-Etienne, Bordeaux, Angers and Nantes).
That is seriously bizarre.

And is also why (as claimed over in another thread) results and exit polls start leaking before 8.

Yeah, I don't understand why they can't harmonize closing times in metropolitan France. It's not like we're the USA. :P


As for NDA, I'd quicker eat my hat than vote for that stupid asshat.

Ironically I quite liked him a couple years ago before I realized he was a Villiers bis / Le Pen lite. Shame on me for seriously buying that neogaullist bullsh*t.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Andrea on April 21, 2012, 10:11:16 AM
what is the logic behind big cities voting longer? I mean, they are bigger, but they should have more polling stations anyway. Because city people go out for a weekend at la campagne to be back in town for dinner?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 21, 2012, 10:24:13 AM
Guys, I've posted on my blog the last graphs by pollster. May be of some interest if you want to try to predict all this stuff.

If you just follow the trends of my Big Bad Tracker, this should be something like this:
Hollande 27.8 -> 28
Sarkozy 27-> 26.5
Le Pen 15.7 -> 16
Mélenchon 13.8 -> 13.5
Bayrou 10.3 -> 10.5
Joly 2.4 -> 2.5
Dupont-Aignan 1.4 -> 1.5
Poutou 1.1 -> 1
Arthaud 0.5 -> 0.5
Cheminade 0.1 -> 0


Now, I've tried to add effects from poll and media momentum, mobilization, electoral sociology and its consequences on turnout, tactical vote in a "useful" way. And it gives me my personal prediction:
Sarkozy 27.6
Hollande 26.7
Le Pen 14.8
Mélenchon 13.8
Bayrou 9.6
Dupont-Aignan 2.5
Poutou 2.1
Joly 1.9
Arthaud 0.8
Cheminade 0.2


Of course, I'll be completely wrong, as usual when it's about French elections :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 21, 2012, 10:33:02 AM
So you think Sarko will pull ahead ? Wow, it seems for once we're actually both optimistic. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 21, 2012, 10:35:02 AM
I think Cheminade will win easily, given that the aliens will rig the polls.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: © tweed on April 21, 2012, 11:30:21 AM
guess I would be voting New Anticapitalist after Melenchon topped out beyond hope.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 21, 2012, 11:31:42 AM
I love how the Communist Revolutionary League renamed itself the New Anticapitalist Party.

Panderers.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 21, 2012, 12:01:12 PM
I love how the Communist Revolutionary League renamed itself the New Anticapitalist Party.

Panderers.

It was long ago. A way to try to unite the "left of the left"... with the success you know...
Mélenchon will be able to do it, in the polls, but not among the parties.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 21, 2012, 12:03:21 PM
I love how the Communist Revolutionary League renamed itself the New Anticapitalist Party.

Panderers.

It was long ago. A way to try to unite the "left of the left"... with the success you know...
Mélenchon will be able to do it, in the polls, but not among the parties.
Three years is not a long time in politics. Not nearly as long as a week. ;)

Besides, both that and the PG happened at a time when there were no major elections up in France and my attention had wavered elsewhere.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 21, 2012, 02:49:18 PM
The NPA was supposed to be a temporary name, but the members opted to keep it when they could have adopted a final name. It is a terrible tinpot name, but it fits with the clientele.

There was a brief period before Melenchon and the FG became a serious credible actor, between late 2008 and early 2009, where the NPA was doing really well in the polls (8-9% iirc) and Besancenot was riding really high. Then he took a huge dumping, which was partly of his own making.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 21, 2012, 04:33:53 PM
No other predictions ?
Tender ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 21, 2012, 04:34:26 PM
As per usual, a results thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152487.0

I'll temporarily lock this thread tomorrow.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 21, 2012, 05:33:35 PM
My French teacher will vote for Melenchon (Hollande in the 2nd round).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 21, 2012, 08:14:42 PM
The Daily Hate Mail continues to be a parody of itself. (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2132611/French-elections-2012-Marine-Le-Pen-responsible-vote-France.html)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 21, 2012, 08:40:44 PM
Insert reference to 'Hurrah for the Blackshirts!' here.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Vosem on April 21, 2012, 09:13:44 PM
Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 21, 2012, 10:45:45 PM
Just realized BBC World will have live result coverage (whenever I get to watch, that is). Much better than settling for an Internet stream. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on April 21, 2012, 11:47:06 PM
Well let's check the record; the reunified Italy actually won most of its wars (if only because they tended to pick on weak opponents or choose the winning side).

Won:

Austro-Prussian War (on a technicality)
Occupation of the Papal States
Occupation of Eritrea
Boxer Rebellion
Italo-Ottoman War
World War I
Second Italo-Ethiopian War
Occupation of Albania

Lost:

First Italo-Ethiopian War
World War II

LOL! Yeah, come tell me how many wars Italians won. I am very impressed.


For a Greek to chide another country for being militarily inept is amusing.  Have you been to Trebizond, Smyrna, or Constantinople lately?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 22, 2012, 02:20:36 AM
For a Greek to chide another country for being militarily inept is amusing.  Have you been to Trebizond, Smyrna, or Constantinople lately?

No. But considering our size it's pretty amazing how many empires we defeated through the course of history, from Persians to Italians.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 22, 2012, 03:22:43 AM
Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.

Well, see how a "respectable" british newspaper just endorsed a rabid xenophobe with no credible economic program who wants to pull out of euro.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: YL on April 22, 2012, 04:02:37 AM
Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.

Well, see how a "respectable" british newspaper just endorsed a rabid xenophobe with no credible economic program who wants to pull out of euro.

Given that said "newspaper" is rabidly xenophobic, has no credible position on the economy and is rabidly anti-EU, it sounds like they've found the right candidate...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: ObserverIE on April 22, 2012, 05:58:38 AM
Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.

Well, see how a "respectable" british newspaper just endorsed a rabid xenophobe with no credible economic program who wants to pull out of euro.

Given that said "newspaper" is rabidly xenophobic, has no credible position on the economy and is rabidly anti-EU, it sounds like they've found the right candidate...

Please, guys, this is actually an Irish (Canadian-Irish to be exact) self-hating (http://www.broadsheet.ie/2012/04/20/if-theres-bustle-in-your-hegemonic-liberalism/) far-right loon.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Andrea on April 22, 2012, 07:53:32 AM
La Tribune de Geneve has published results from Saint Pierre, Saint Martin, Guadaloupe, Martinique and Guyane
http://www.tdg.ch/monde/francois-hollande-arrive-tete-outremer/story/13506241


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 22, 2012, 08:03:54 AM
This thread will now be locked, as per custom and all.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 25, 2012, 12:38:30 PM
This thread is now unlocked. Discussion of raw results, maps and other interesting stuff still goes in the results thread.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 25, 2012, 01:20:47 PM
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2134636/Francois-Hollande-Sacre-bleu-Is-France-line-fail.html?ito=feeds-newsxml ::)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 25, 2012, 04:03:39 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #52 - 23 April 2012   



(the current thread was locked, so I'm a bit late to give you these numbers here :P)      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 55,11
Sarkozy 44,89

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.59
Sarkozy 45.41

Daily IFOP poll steady at 55-45 since Monday.

On my blog, an analysis of pollsters: Harris is the best one !... behind the Big Bad Tracker of course ;D !

Harris clearly ahead, with IFOP, TNS-Sofres, OpinionWay and IPSOS not so far away.
LH2 and CSA are quite bad. BVA is bad.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 25, 2012, 04:34:33 PM
Anyways, here are the updated charts. I added the results to the 1st round tracker.

()

()

I don't think it's useful to add a tracker with voting transfer. The hypothetic advantages of correcting possible selection biases is overshadowed by the disadvantage of working with tiny samples.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 27, 2012, 11:42:47 AM
Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on April 27, 2012, 12:33:56 PM
Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

Well, I think he may be destroing the UMP in the process. I don't see how people like Jouanno and Luca and NKM will be able to stay in the same party than Luca, for example.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bacon King on April 27, 2012, 12:49:59 PM
Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

From what little I've read, it appear's that he's going balls-to-the-wall in attempting to woo the FN... even if he does convince Le Pen voters to show up and vote for him in the second round, isn't he scaring off a lot more moderates in the process?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 27, 2012, 01:26:49 PM
BTW, just for information, here is fab's tracker seen in column graphs rather than lines. That way it's easier to see performances in a global perspective.

()

(last column indicates actual results)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 27, 2012, 01:55:21 PM
Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

From what little I've read, it appear's that he's going balls-to-the-wall in attempting to woo the FN... even if he does convince Le Pen voters to show up and vote for him in the second round, isn't he scaring off a lot more moderates in the process?

I think so, yeah. I think Fabien agrees, too. He's shooting himself in the foot with this strategy.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 27, 2012, 03:46:19 PM
Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

From what little I've read, it appear's that he's going balls-to-the-wall in attempting to woo the FN... even if he does convince Le Pen voters to show up and vote for him in the second round, isn't he scaring off a lot more moderates in the process?

I think so, yeah. I think Fabien agrees, too. He's shooting himself in the foot with this strategy.

SIGH....

Read my blog tonight... read the numbers of vote transfers in the daily IFOP poll... gasp !

Juppé président ! :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 27, 2012, 03:47:25 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #53 - 27 April 2012   


      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.59
Sarkozy 45.41

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 53.59
Sarkozy 46.41

Expect far worse numbers for Sarkozy on Monday... :(


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 28, 2012, 04:08:15 AM
I doubt such blatant pandering even appeals to Front voters.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 28, 2012, 04:20:04 AM
I read that he promised to authorize the police to shoot to kill any suspicious looking guy they encounter. I guess if Zimmerman skips bail then we might have just found where he is heading to.  


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on April 28, 2012, 01:31:35 PM
Mediapart published a document 'proving' Khaddafi's financial support for Sarko in 2007 today.

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/article/2012/04/28/un-document-prouverait-le-financement-de-la-campagne-de-sarkozy-par-kadhafi_1692759_1471069.html

I find it difficult to estimate how big this is. But shouldn't this be very, very 'ouch' for Sarkozy if true?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 28, 2012, 02:15:12 PM
Mediapart published a document 'proving' Khaddafi's financial support for Sarko in 2007 today.

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/article/2012/04/28/un-document-prouverait-le-financement-de-la-campagne-de-sarkozy-par-kadhafi_1692759_1471069.html

I find it difficult to estimate how big this is. But shouldn't this be very, very 'ouch' for Sarkozy if true?

Scandals don't see to have had a huge impact in the campaign so far. There have been so many since 2010, that people are probably "saturated".


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 28, 2012, 04:43:32 PM

You guys had 17 years already :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Andrea on April 29, 2012, 08:44:09 AM
Can I ask a stupid question about voting procedures? My dad asked me this and I own him the answer.
When you go to polling stations, you pick a ballot paper indicating each candidates/lists and an envelope, then you go into the polling booth and put the paper with the name of your favourite candidate in the envelope. You go out and put the envelope in the ballot box.
What do you do with the ballot papers indicating the names of other candidates/lists? Do you throw them in the rubbish in the polling booth or do you have to take them home?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 29, 2012, 08:56:33 AM
Can I ask a stupid question about voting procedures? My dad asked me this and I own him the answer.
When you go to polling stations, you pick a ballot paper indicating each candidates/lists and an envelope, then you go into the polling booth and put the paper with the name of your favourite candidate in the envelope. You go out and put the envelope in the ballot box.
What do you do with the ballot papers indicating the names of other candidates/lists? Do you throw them in the rubbish in the polling booth or do you have to take them home?

Basically everybody throws them away in a trash can inside the polling booth, while a few leave them lying there while a few decide to take them home (I kept my remaining ballots, but I didn't take all 10).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Meeker on April 29, 2012, 10:12:06 AM
Why don't they just mark the name on a piece of paper? Seems like they could save a ton of money in printing costs.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 29, 2012, 11:13:09 AM
Why don't they just mark the name on a piece of paper? Seems like they could save a ton of money in printing costs.


()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 29, 2012, 11:57:38 AM
Just back from a Hollande meeting in Bercy ! :) It was impressive : around 20,000 people, and all very enthusiastic. We can feel how close victory is ! ;)


Can I ask a stupid question about voting procedures? My dad asked me this and I own him the answer.
When you go to polling stations, you pick a ballot paper indicating each candidates/lists and an envelope, then you go into the polling booth and put the paper with the name of your favourite candidate in the envelope. You go out and put the envelope in the ballot box.
What do you do with the ballot papers indicating the names of other candidates/lists? Do you throw them in the rubbish in the polling booth or do you have to take them home?

Basically everybody throws them away in a trash can inside the polling booth, while a few leave them lying there while a few decide to take them home (I kept my remaining ballots, but I didn't take all 10).

To my surprise, there was no trashcan in my polling booth. So I took the ballots away.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Meeker on April 29, 2012, 11:59:14 AM
Why don't they just mark the name on a piece of paper? Seems like they could save a ton of money in printing costs.


()

Sure, but something like 98% of people manage to fill optical scan ballots out properly. Is the extra cost really worth the inconvenience of deciphering optical scan ballots during recounts?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 29, 2012, 12:05:56 PM
Why don't they just mark the name on a piece of paper? Seems like they could save a ton of money in printing costs.


()

Such a ballot would be disqualified anyway here. And I guess also in France.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Meeker on April 29, 2012, 12:16:34 PM
Yeah, getting rid of voter intent laws would also solve that problem. Not that I favor that, mind you.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Andrea on April 29, 2012, 12:37:39 PM
Can I ask a stupid question about voting procedures? My dad asked me this and I own him the answer.
When you go to polling stations, you pick a ballot paper indicating each candidates/lists and an envelope, then you go into the polling booth and put the paper with the name of your favourite candidate in the envelope. You go out and put the envelope in the ballot box.
What do you do with the ballot papers indicating the names of other candidates/lists? Do you throw them in the rubbish in the polling booth or do you have to take them home?

Basically everybody throws them away in a trash can inside the polling booth, while a few leave them lying there while a few decide to take them home (I kept my remaining ballots, but I didn't take all 10).

Thanks.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on April 29, 2012, 08:54:10 PM
Instead of all these multiple pieces of paper - why not just have one piece of paper with all the presidential candidates listed on it and have voters mark an "x" with a pencil beside the one they want.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: mileslunn on April 30, 2012, 01:12:35 AM
Whats the most recent polling?  If all the National Front voters go to Sarkozy, that would give him on the edge and as long as he picks up a small portion of the MoDem supporters that would be enough to win.  At the same time I suspect like in many European countries a lot of those who vote for far right parties are people with low incomes who want to blame the immigrants for their economic misfortune thus I am not sure how keen they would be on Sarkozy's economic policies even if they like his immigration ones.  Finally what about turnout.  Any idea of which groups who voted in the first round will sit out the second while who are the groups that are most notorious for sitting out the first round and then voting in the second round in past elections as I understand turnout is usually higher in the second round suggesting some who sit out the first round show up in the second round.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 30, 2012, 03:59:43 AM
Hope for Sarkozy ?

New Ipsos poll shows:

53-47 Hollande

Sarkozy gaining ground with Le Pen and Bayrou voters.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 30, 2012, 04:39:10 AM
Hope for Sarkozy ?

New Ipsos poll shows:

53-47 Hollande

Sarkozy gaining ground with Le Pen and Bayrou voters.

WHAT


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 30, 2012, 04:43:50 AM
Hope for Sarkozy ?

New Ipsos poll shows:

53-47 Hollande

Sarkozy gaining ground with Le Pen and Bayrou voters.

WHAT

()

www.ipsos.fr

(Could be margin of error movement though, who knows ...)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 30, 2012, 04:45:53 AM
If this is not an outlier I'm going to bang my head on a wall until death ensues.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 30, 2012, 04:53:13 AM
If this is not an outlier I'm going to bang my head on a wall until death ensues.

What are the chances that we'll see ANY poll with Sarkozy at 48% this week ?

BTW, has there been any poll with him at 48% since Election 2007 ? Don't think so ...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 30, 2012, 04:59:09 AM
If this is not an outlier I'm going to bang my head on a wall until death ensues.

What are the chances that we'll see ANY poll with Sarkozy at 48% this week ?

What can I say ? Let's wait and see. *sigh*


Quote
BTW, has there been any poll with him at 48% since Election 2007 ? Don't think so...

I'm sure there were a few. He started trailing so massively only by the end of 2010, after a series of scandals. Before, the polls were quite close apart from those against DSK.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RedPrometheus on April 30, 2012, 05:52:41 AM
I think in the end it the result will be more like 53-47 or even 52-48 but nevertheless Hollande will win.

Sarkozy is a fairly strong campaigner, but Hollande is fairly boring, but Hollande seems to have the enthusiasm on his side.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 30, 2012, 06:20:33 AM
From the reaction you'd think that it was a poll showing him 10 points ahead.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 30, 2012, 06:39:38 AM
From the reaction you'd think that it was a poll showing him 10 points ahead.

Doesn't the idea that Sarkozy is gaining ground after his far-right turn freak you out too ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bacon King on April 30, 2012, 07:20:31 AM
From the reaction you'd think that it was a poll showing him 10 points ahead.

Doesn't the idea that Sarkozy is gaining ground after his far-right turn freak you out too ?

The weird thing is though that if you look at the poll, though, his support from Le Pen voters has actually dropped. Somehow, according to Ipsos, over the past week Bayrou voters have gone from 33% Hollande, 32% Sarkozy, 35% no voting intentions, to 40% Sarkozy, 34% Hollande, 26% no intentions. There's also a slight decline in the number of Melanchon voters saying they'll vote for Hollande.

That poll basically says the exact opposite of everything that I think would be happening.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 30, 2012, 07:50:36 AM
An incumbent trailing by six with about thirty seconds to go is still an incumbent in a hell of a lot of trouble. He's going to need to be closer - and consistently - to have much of a prayer.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 30, 2012, 09:32:04 AM
Sarkozy will be re-elected.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on April 30, 2012, 10:10:25 AM
The only way Sarkozy could win would be if all the polls in France were as spectacularly wrong as they were in the recent election in Alberta!! (ie: incumbent is supposed to lose by 8 points and instead wins by 10 points)...not a chance.

In 2007 as i recall the final numbers for Sarkozy and Royal were exactly what the final polls predicted.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 30, 2012, 10:31:25 AM
The only way Sarkozy could win would be if all the polls in France were as spectacularly wrong as they were in the recent election in Alberta!! (ie: incumbent is supposed to lose by 8 points and instead wins by 10 points)...not a chance.

In 2007 as i recall the final numbers for Sarkozy and Royal were exactly what the final polls predicted.

Sarkozy overpolled by about 2%. He polled an average of 55% and got 53%.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 30, 2012, 11:32:48 AM
Are French polls that accurate that a shift of one point is some big news?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 30, 2012, 12:46:00 PM

Elaborate.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 30, 2012, 01:50:12 PM

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 30, 2012, 02:02:38 PM

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic.

Like Santorum won reelection in 2006?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: homelycooking on April 30, 2012, 02:45:40 PM
Aside from the trolling, Phil, I think what they're trying to get at is this: what makes you so certain? You've been adamant that Sarkozy will win for the whole campaign.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 30, 2012, 02:53:52 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #54 - 30 April 2012   


      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.34
Sarkozy 45.66

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.20
Sarkozy 45.80

My two trackers are almost even: so, who will try to beat Hollande in 2017 ? :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 30, 2012, 02:56:53 PM

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic.

Like Santorum won reelection in 2006?

Like Toomey won in 2010, yes.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Joe Republic on April 30, 2012, 03:18:01 PM
Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Franzl on April 30, 2012, 03:20:42 PM
Aside from the trolling, Phil, I think what they're trying to get at is this: what makes you so certain? You've been adamant that Sarkozy will win for the whole campaign.

I imagine nothing. He's just half-trolling and will have bragging rights in the unlikely event that Sarkozy actually wins.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 30, 2012, 03:51:42 PM
Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Meeker on April 30, 2012, 03:56:33 PM
Aside from the trolling, Phil, I think what they're trying to get at is this: what makes you so certain? You've been adamant that Sarkozy will win for the whole campaign.

I imagine nothing. He's just half-trolling and will have bragging rights in the unlikely event that Sarkozy actually wins.

Ding ding ding.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: mileslunn on April 30, 2012, 04:11:15 PM

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic.

Like Santorum won reelection in 2006?

It seems in most European elections, polls tend to underestimate support of parties on the right so I still think a Sarkozy win is possible but not likely.  Either way I don't think Hollande will win by 10 points as some polls are suggesting.  It will be much closer.  In the case of the US, they usually probe on one's likeliness to vote thus groups such as younger Americans, minorities who tend to lean left but have lower turnout rates are weighted based on how many plan to vote, not what percentage of the population they represent.  In the case of the US, only those who say they are likely or certain to vote are included whereas in most other places, they don't probe likeliness to vote and they weight each subgroup based on what share of the population they represent rather than what share of the electorate who shows up they represent.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Joe Republic on April 30, 2012, 04:15:08 PM
Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 30, 2012, 04:16:16 PM
Phil, do you realize that Toomey was supposed to win as polls predicted, while Sarko is expected to lose?

Oh, and IIRC, Toomey won by a hair at the end.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: mileslunn on April 30, 2012, 04:18:32 PM
Polls can be wrong too.  Remember the 1992 election in Britain where every poll suggested Labour Party would win but the Conservatives did.  Likewise here in Canada, almost every poll predicted the right wing Wild Rose Alliance would win the Alberta provincial election and instead the more moderate Progressive Conservatives ended winning quite handily.  A lot will depend on who shows up and also how the undecideds break.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Vosem on April 30, 2012, 04:20:49 PM
Toomey did underperform. Sarko still could win, but it would be one hell of an upset, and I would say Sarko seems set to lose in 2012 but overperform, losing 53-47, 52-48, or even 51-49. I think that might position him well for a comeback in 2017 -- he's still fairly young, and having lost once doesn't seem to be much of a taboo in France.

This race is reminding me of the recent election in Alberta to some extent -- there, the final polls showed the embattled incumbent gaining ground, with the last poll showing just a 2-point margin, while ultimately the incumbent won by 10 points. It's difficult for me to even try to imagine Antonio's reaction if all the polls show Hollande ahead and then Sarko randomly wins 55-45.

But, Hollande is probably going to win. Maybe Sarko has a 20% chance at best.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: mileslunn on April 30, 2012, 04:24:50 PM
When do the last polls come out anyways.  I often look for what direction the late breakers are heading so if we have some polls in the next day or so with Sarkozy at 48-52 or 49-51 and the trend continues on E-day, he could pull it off.  Also turnout could be a factor too as a poor turnout would probably favour Sarkozy since the demographics who traditionally have the highest turnout rates usually favour parties on the right.  I would say 20% maybe even as high as 25% sounds about right.  If anyone wants to see polls badly messing up, check out the most recent Alberta election, although I would be shocked if something that dramatic happened.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 30, 2012, 04:29:40 PM
Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

...

Ok, I clarified this: px cited a bad prediction of mine to make a joke about how my predictions are wrong. I pointed to a correct prediction of mine so disprove this idea that the opposite of my predictions usually come true. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy winning a future election. You're reading too far into it.

Phil, do you realize that Toomey was supposed to win as polls predicted, while Sarko is expected to lose?

Oh, and IIRC, Toomey won by a hair at the end.

Ok, once again, you're applying my comment to performance. It has nothing to do with that. I'll spell it out very clearly:

Px smart ass routine -> Haha, Phil! Remember when you had that hilariously wrong prediction? This will end the same way.

My response -> Yeah, I got a prediction wrong. I've gotten others wrong, too, but here's an example of a correct prediction.

Really not hard to grasp, guys.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on April 30, 2012, 04:34:40 PM
When do the last polls come out anyways.  I often look for what direction the late breakers are heading so if we have some polls in the next day or so with Sarkozy at 48-52 or 49-51 and the trend continues on E-day, he could pull it off.  Also turnout could be a factor too as a poor turnout would probably favour Sarkozy since the demographics who traditionally have the highest turnout rates usually favour parties on the right.  I would say 20% maybe even as high as 25% sounds about right.  If anyone wants to see polls badly messing up, check out the most recent Alberta election, although I would be shocked if something that dramatic happened.



i'm not sure of that. Left don't have majority on the country. If there is a poor turnout, this will be the sign than bayrou and marine voters stay home

if there is a strong turnout, the result would be close (but with a hollandist victory whatever)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on April 30, 2012, 04:35:20 PM
Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

...

Ok, I clarified this: px cited a bad prediction of mine to make a joke about how my predictions are wrong. I pointed to a correct prediction of mine so disprove this idea that the opposite of my predictions usually come true. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy winning a future election. You're reading too far into it.

Phil, do you realize that Toomey was supposed to win as polls predicted, while Sarko is expected to lose?

Oh, and IIRC, Toomey won by a hair at the end.

Ok, once again, you're applying my comment to performance. It has nothing to do with that. I'll spell it out very clearly:

Px smart ass routine -> Haha, Phil! Remember when you had that hilariously wrong prediction? This will end the same way.

My response -> Yeah, I got a prediction wrong. I've gotten others wrong, too, but here's an example of a correct prediction.

Really not hard to grasp, guys.

How can you say you're giving a correct prediction? Do you know something the rest of the people don't? Because even Fab, a French person living in France and supporting Sarkozy recognizes Hollande will win.

Let's talk about this on Monday 6th ;) Then, you can say you're sure Santorum will be the nominee in 2016.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: mileslunn on April 30, 2012, 04:37:51 PM
When do the last polls come out anyways.  I often look for what direction the late breakers are heading so if we have some polls in the next day or so with Sarkozy at 48-52 or 49-51 and the trend continues on E-day, he could pull it off.  Also turnout could be a factor too as a poor turnout would probably favour Sarkozy since the demographics who traditionally have the highest turnout rates usually favour parties on the right.  I would say 20% maybe even as high as 25% sounds about right.  If anyone wants to see polls badly messing up, check out the most recent Alberta election, although I would be shocked if something that dramatic happened.



i'm not sure of that. Left don't have majority on the country. If there is a poor turnout, this will be the sign than bayrou and marine voters stay home

if there is a strong turnout, the result would be close (but with a hollandist victory whatever)

Good point.  I just know in general the right does better amongst those who are more likely to show up.  I do agree that in France there are slightly more on the right than the left.  In fact in most European countries those on the right outnumber the left notwithstanding the image of Europe being a left wing continent.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Joe Republic on April 30, 2012, 04:39:38 PM
Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

...

Ok, I clarified this: px cited a bad prediction of mine to make a joke about how my predictions are wrong. I pointed to a correct prediction of mine so disprove this idea that the opposite of my predictions usually come true. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy winning a future election. You're reading too far into it.

I don't care about the spat with px75.  I'm now referring only to this quote:


Again, I was asking if maybe you meant in 2017, or some other future election?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on April 30, 2012, 04:40:16 PM
i had already made a map of total left vs right without bayrou :

()



and there is a map total left without total non-left (from bayrou to marine)

()



this map is not significative for the non-left, but it is for the left


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: mileslunn on April 30, 2012, 04:43:36 PM
i had already made a map of total left vs right without bayrou :

()



and there is a map total left without total non-left (from bayrou to marine)

()



this map is not significative for the non-left, but it is for the left


Would you have one where Marine + Sarkozy exceeded 50% and then also one where Hollande + Left Party exceeded 50%.  Either way I agree the left is not as strong as some think, although that is pretty much the case in almost every European country to varying degrees.  They are very few if any Western countries left where there are more people on the left than right.  Some would say Canada, although that is disputable either way.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on April 30, 2012, 04:45:44 PM
i'll made it just now for you, wait a sec


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on April 30, 2012, 04:51:07 PM

Either way I agree the left is not as strong as some think, although that is pretty much the case in almost every European country to varying degrees.  They are very few if any Western countries left where there are more people on the left than right.  Some would say Canada, although that is disputable either way.

What about Germany where the SDP, Green and Linke are often over 50%?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on April 30, 2012, 04:52:56 PM
Here it is :

red : absolute majority hollande-mélenchon
blue : absolute majority sarkozy-MLP


()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on April 30, 2012, 04:56:52 PM
same map, but with joly with left, and NDA with right


()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 30, 2012, 04:59:31 PM
Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

...

Ok, I clarified this: px cited a bad prediction of mine to make a joke about how my predictions are wrong. I pointed to a correct prediction of mine so disprove this idea that the opposite of my predictions usually come true. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy winning a future election. You're reading too far into it.

Phil, do you realize that Toomey was supposed to win as polls predicted, while Sarko is expected to lose?

Oh, and IIRC, Toomey won by a hair at the end.

Ok, once again, you're applying my comment to performance. It has nothing to do with that. I'll spell it out very clearly:

Px smart ass routine -> Haha, Phil! Remember when you had that hilariously wrong prediction? This will end the same way.

My response -> Yeah, I got a prediction wrong. I've gotten others wrong, too, but here's an example of a correct prediction.

Really not hard to grasp, guys.

How can you say you're giving a correct prediction? Do you know something the rest of the people don't? Because even Fab, a French person living in France and supporting Sarkozy recognizes Hollande will win.

Let's talk about this on Monday 6th ;) Then, you can say you're sure Santorum will be the nominee in 2016.

...

I refuse to believe you are this dense. I posted my Toomey prediction - which I stated was my correct prediction - as proof that my predictions aren't necessarily wrong. This means my prediction about Sarkozy winning could be correct just as some of my other predictions have been correct.

This really is not difficult to understand.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: mileslunn on April 30, 2012, 05:00:12 PM

Either way I agree the left is not as strong as some think, although that is pretty much the case in almost every European country to varying degrees.  They are very few if any Western countries left where there are more people on the left than right.  Some would say Canada, although that is disputable either way.

What about Germany where the SDP, Green and Linke are often over 50%?

Sometimes, but not always.  True a lot depends on how many parties you have on each side as not everybody blindly votes on ideology.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: mileslunn on April 30, 2012, 05:01:14 PM
same map, but with joly with left, and NDA with right


()

So otherwise there are more right wing than left wing areas but in most parts of the country neither side has a clear majority.  Not too unusual though when you have a centrist option.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 30, 2012, 05:02:00 PM

I don't care about the spat with px75.  I'm now referring only to this quote:


Again, I was asking if maybe you meant in 2017, or some other future election?

...

I'm referring to 2012, Joe. You know that. Stop trolling.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Colbert on April 30, 2012, 05:02:57 PM
centre is pretty weak.


In my opinion, this election is a referendum anti-sarko more than other thing


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Joe Republic on April 30, 2012, 05:03:57 PM
I'm referring to 2012, Joe. You know that. Stop trolling.

But that doesn't make any sense, Phil.  ???

Perhaps I'm not the one trolling in this thread.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on April 30, 2012, 05:08:20 PM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #54 - 30 April 2012   


      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.34
Sarkozy 45.66

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.20
Sarkozy 45.80

My two trackers are almost even: so, who will try to beat Hollande in 2017 ? :P

I re-post this, just in case...
Come on guys, this is not a "general discussion thread"....


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 30, 2012, 05:27:47 PM
I'm referring to 2012, Joe. You know that. Stop trolling.

But that doesn't make any sense, Phil.  ???

Perhaps I'm not the one trolling in this thread.

Joe, what doesn't make sense here? I believe Sarkozy will win in 2012. Px said, "Oh, like how Santorum won?" Since he was being a smartass about a past incorrect prediction, I decided to mention a correct prediction I made. That's the only reason why I mentioned Toomey. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy and Toomey being on the same electoral trajectory. This is not difficult to follow.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on April 30, 2012, 06:55:22 PM
Wow, given that this thread has derailed into the worst thread on this forum, I'm happy this stupid election is going to be over soon and we'll all be able to go back to our regular activities. Phew.

As for the Sarkobump, I'll panic when he consistently hits 49 or 49.5. In the meantime, as a political cartographer who likes colourful maps, I will be pleased by anything which narrows the margin somewhat to make my maps more interesting.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 30, 2012, 07:13:34 PM
Wow, given that this thread has derailed into the worst thread on this forum, I'm happy this stupid election is going to be over soon and we'll all be able to go back to our regular activities. Phew.

I think it was done on the sole intention of pissing off Al.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 30, 2012, 07:21:24 PM
I find it a bit amusing that everybody talks about a poll that shows Hollande at 53% and not the other two from the same period who show him at 54 and 55%.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 01, 2012, 05:18:51 AM
tehdrama beneath the double warnings has been deleted. Take it outside, etc.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 01, 2012, 06:21:06 AM
2012 Big Bad Tracker #54 - 30 April 2012   


      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.34
Sarkozy 45.66

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.20
Sarkozy 45.80

My two trackers are almost even: so, who will try to beat Hollande in 2017 ? :P

()


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Joe Republic on May 01, 2012, 08:14:33 AM
tehdrama beneath the double warnings has been deleted. Take it outside, etc.

I didn't realize we weren't allowed to discuss election predictions in an election thread on a political message board any more.  Good to know.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 01, 2012, 10:09:46 AM
The Boardbashi does not approve of this display of dissent.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 01, 2012, 10:54:34 AM
Le Pen to spoil her ballot. A bit of help for Sarkozy with centrist voters?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 01, 2012, 01:05:22 PM
If he doesn't get enough FN support any help with the center might not end up mattering much.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Meeker on May 01, 2012, 01:57:38 PM
Marine Le Pen saying she doesn't like Sarkozy isn't really anything new.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 01, 2012, 02:00:53 PM

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 01, 2012, 02:10:39 PM

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?

The Shy Sarkozy Effect and the French Left's history of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on May 01, 2012, 03:11:35 PM
I see no evidence that there is a "shy Sarkozy" effect. He did just as badly in the first round as all the polls predicted and in 2007 the polls all projected that he would get 55% and he ended up with 53%. If anything there was a "shy Royal" effect!

In the end, elections in France are very predictable and real upsets are rare. In 1974, the polls predicted Gisccard would win very narrowly and he won very narrowly. In 1981 the polls predicted Mitterrand would win very narrowly and won very narrowly. In 1988 the polls predicted Mitterrand would get easily re-elected and he was easily re-elected. In 1995 all the polls predicted Chirac would win and if anything the socialist Jospin made it closer than expected. We will never know what would have happened in 2002 if there had been a Chirac vs. Jospin second round...but again the results were all as predicted.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 01, 2012, 03:28:42 PM

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?

The Shy Sarkozy Effect and the French Left's history of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

It's not 2007 anymore. First of all, Sarkozy is an unpopular incumbent, not an "alternative" to both old-style politics, primairly represented by Chirac (not his internal ally by any means), and the epic fail called Segolene Royal, he was considered five years ago. Second of all, well before this point Segolene was already imploding and Sarko's victory (smaller than many polls predicted) was very likely.

And now, there's a giant Sarko fatigue and Hollande is nowhere close to be such an autodestructive failure like Segolene. 

"Shy Sarkozy effect"? Yeah right, just as McCain was elected due to "Bradley effect" four years ago :P There's no such thing.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on May 01, 2012, 04:09:56 PM
Sarko winning probably requires something along the lines of 80-90% support from Panzergirl voters or something like 65-75% from Panzergirl and 60-65% from the Bearnese Twat. In other words, about as likely as Stephen Harper being a Liberal MP tomorrow.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 01, 2012, 04:54:18 PM

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?

The Shy Sarkozy Effect and the French Left's history of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

It's not 2007 anymore. First of all, Sarkozy is an unpopular incumbent, not an "alternative" to both old-style politics, primairly represented by Chirac (not his internal ally by any means), and the epic fail called Segolene Royal, he was considered five years ago. Second of all, well before this point Segolene was already imploding and Sarko's victory (smaller than many polls predicted) was very likely.

And now, there's a giant Sarko fatigue and Hollande is nowhere close to be such an autodestructive failure like Segolene. 

"Shy Sarkozy effect"? Yeah right, just as McCain was elected due to "Bradley effect" four years ago :P There's no such thing.

Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 01, 2012, 05:01:03 PM
Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

Well, Sarkozy's win in 2007 wasn't exactly a blowout either, even though he was much more popular and had weak opposition.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Simfan34 on May 01, 2012, 05:06:54 PM
If Hollande is as bad as I think he'll be perhaps Sarko will make a comeback in 2017? Or do French politics not work like that? Chances are there won't be a UMP in 2017.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 01, 2012, 05:08:32 PM
Sort've OT, but have any good viral videos gone round this election? Like, skits.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on May 01, 2012, 10:49:29 PM

Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

French presidential elections are like US presidential elections - the loser is always guaranteed an absolute minimum 45/46 percent of the vote. In 2008 despite being from the same party as Bush being the most hated President in American history and despite a Vice-Presidential running mate like Sarah Palin who was an object of ridicule and complete crackpot - McCain still got 46% of the vote.

By French standards, if Sarkozy loses 54-46% it will be regarded as a landslide


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 02, 2012, 12:16:45 AM
The mini-mini-Sarko-poll-bump has now stopped:

54-46 Hollande (new IFOP poll)

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/sondage-hollande-vainqueur-face-%C3%A0-sarkozy-080611570.html

53.5-46.5 Hollande (new BVA poll)

http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2012/05/02/1343055-sondage-hollande-toujours-en-tete.html


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 02, 2012, 12:20:33 AM

Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

French presidential elections are like US presidential elections - the loser is always guaranteed an absolute minimum 45/46 percent of the vote. In 2008 despite being from the same party as Bush being the most hated President in American history and despite a Vice-Presidential running mate like Sarah Palin who was an object of ridicule and complete crackpot - McCain still got 46% of the vote.

By French standards, if Sarkozy loses 54-46% it will be regarded as a landslide

You might want to read up on the 2002 French presidential election.

And I'm sure Obama would have absolutely crushed McCain if they were running in France.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on May 02, 2012, 12:21:09 AM

Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

French presidential elections are like US presidential elections - the loser is always guaranteed an absolute minimum 45/46 percent of the vote. In 2008 despite being from the same party as Bush being the most hated President in American history and despite a Vice-Presidential running mate like Sarah Palin who was an object of ridicule and complete crackpot - McCain still got 46% of the vote.

By French standards, if Sarkozy loses 54-46% it will be regarded as a landslide

You might want to read up on the 2002 French presidential election.

2002 seems to be the exception, not the rule.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 02, 2012, 02:28:48 AM
If Hollande is as bad as I think he'll be perhaps Sarko will make a comeback in 2017? Or do French politics not work like that?

Well, Giscard seriously considered running again in 1995 (and hoped to become Prime Minister in 1993).



Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

French presidential elections are like US presidential elections - the loser is always guaranteed an absolute minimum 45/46 percent of the vote. In 2008 despite being from the same party as Bush being the most hated President in American history and despite a Vice-Presidential running mate like Sarah Palin who was an object of ridicule and complete crackpot - McCain still got 46% of the vote.

By French standards, if Sarkozy loses 54-46% it will be regarded as a landslide

Indeed. For example, Mitterrand was fairly popular incumbent in 1988 and was expected to win rather easily. He got 54.02% and that was a landslide by French standards.

You might want to read up on the 2002 French presidential election.

An incumbent vs. an extremist, who suddenly advanced into second round. Kind of like 1991 Louisiana gubernatorial ("vote for crook, not a fascist"). Chirac got his 82.21% not because he was so popular, but because everyone (outside of FN, of course) hated his opponent. It would look very diffrent with regular gaullist vs. socialist runoff.

And Chirac was hardly popular. In fact, he got the lowest support for an incumbent President in the first round.

When we're talking about current election, all comparisions to the fluke of 2002 are irrevelant.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 02, 2012, 11:44:28 AM
Today is the TV debate apparently.

And it's shown on TV5 Europe @ 9pm local time.

Too bad I can't understand French, so watching it is pretty much useless because I won't understand what they are saying or if one of them makes a major gaffe (which will probably not happen anyway because they are no Rick Perrys).

Why isn't the German-French ARTE showing the debate and employing some French-German translators during the debate ? (Checked their schedule, not happening though.)

So, does anyone of the French posters here know a stream that translates the debate into German or English ? ???


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 02, 2012, 11:51:36 AM
I've no idea. I doubt you'll find any translated live stream, though maybe there's some chance of a translated version being posted on youtube.

As for me, obviously I'm going to watch it. Conventional wisdom seems to be that Sarkozy will win it because he is more energic and pugnacious, but if he is too aggressive this might easily backfire (see, quite ironically, the 2007 debate with an infuriated Royal facing a phlegmatic Sarko).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 02, 2012, 12:24:51 PM
Hmm, when I checked the ARTE teletext in the morning, it said that they won't broadcast the debate.

On their homepage it now says they will broadcast it (maybe only over the Internet, because their TV schedule on their website still says nothing about the debate) ... :)

And it will have a simultaneos French-German translation:

http://www.arte.tv/de/Praesidentschaftswahl-2012--Chat-und-Debatte-live/6623018.html#comment-516639784


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 12:28:14 PM
Any streams online?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 02, 2012, 12:38:16 PM

ARTE (French with German translation)
TV5 Europe

And maybe France24 too.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 02, 2012, 12:54:58 PM
Any French-language livestreams? (Links if possible)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 02, 2012, 01:02:42 PM
Any French-language livestreams? (Links if possible)

Those Tender mentioned are probably in French.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 01:04:26 PM
http://www.france24.com/fr/tv-en-direct-chaine-live - French


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Leftbehind on May 02, 2012, 01:09:53 PM
Any with English? Pretty sure the BBC broadcast the last debate, but it seems we can't even expect that anymore.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 02, 2012, 01:13:01 PM
France 24 I'm guessing.

Also, thanks for the link.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 01:19:46 PM
Any with English? Pretty sure the BBC broadcast the last debate, but it seems we can't even expect that anymore.

Try flicking about some of the random news channels if you have Virgin or Sky. CNN International maybe?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 02, 2012, 01:21:36 PM
Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 01:36:58 PM
Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

I suppose so it's fresh in people's minds. I'm pretty sure most European countries have them pretty close to Election Day.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 02, 2012, 01:41:07 PM
Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

Tradition.


Anyways, just watching Sarko's TV clip, and it's basically a negative spot ! I don't get it. I thought they were banned ? Did Sarko just break the law ? ???


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 02, 2012, 01:42:43 PM
Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

Because it's not the US and French voters (or most voters anywhere) don't like election campaigns that last 2 years.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 02, 2012, 01:43:21 PM
ARTE now says they are not allowed to stream the debate ... :(

WTF ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 02, 2012, 01:44:03 PM
ARTE now says they are not allowed to stream the debate ... :(

WTF ?

Damn !


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 02, 2012, 01:45:56 PM

Fuckers:

Quote
Débat Sarkozy / Hollande

Pour des raisons indépendantes de notre volonté, nous ne sommes plus autorisés à diffuser le débat prévu ce soir.

Le chat est en conséquence annulé. Nous vous prions de nous excuser pour ce désagrément.

Le dossier Présidentielle reste accessible


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 02, 2012, 01:46:35 PM
Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

Because it's not the US and French voters (or most voters anywhere) don't like election campaigns that last 2 years.

...uh...ok. I didn't mean "Why don't they have debates a year in advance?" I'm curious as to why it isn't a week or two before the election so undecided voters don't have to wait so long.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 01:46:48 PM
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xnfrcv_le-live-de-francois-hollande_news#from=embediframe

The Hollande people are streaming it.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 01:47:58 PM
Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

Tradition.


Anyways, just watching Sarko's TV clip, and it's basically a negative spot ! I don't get it. I thought they were banned ? Did Sarko just break the law ? ???

Nicolas Sarkozy? Breaking the law? Well, i'd never believe that.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 02, 2012, 01:52:10 PM
Can someone explain why the debate is just three days before the election?

Because it's not the US and French voters (or most voters anywhere) don't like election campaigns that last 2 years.

...uh...ok. I didn't mean "Why don't they have debates a year in advance?" I'm curious as to why it isn't a week or two before the election so undecided voters don't have to wait so long.
It has to be after the first round, elseways they'd have to give Jacques Cheminade equal opportunity to blabber on about UFOs.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 01:58:11 PM
After struggling to find a good English stream, I'm hoping my questionable French skills will pull me through.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 02:06:33 PM
Sarko is so condescending.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 02, 2012, 02:13:50 PM
It isn't working for me- none of the streams posted here. Do they shut out North Americans?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 02:20:14 PM
Sarko's just scare mongering. Desperate.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 02, 2012, 02:24:13 PM
What are the 2 talking about ?

I can watch them on my TV, but I don't understand anything but a few numbers or something.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 02:26:19 PM
What are the 2 talking about ?

I can watch them on my TV, but I don't understand anything but a few numbers or something.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9241927/French-presidential-debate-live.html

Hollande's just been attacking Sarko "10 year" as a leading politician, as Home Minister and Finance Minister, tying his time at the Finance ministry to the economic problems and the deficit.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 02, 2012, 02:28:40 PM

Wait! Wait! This sounds like a French Presidential debate...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: ZonedOut on May 02, 2012, 02:29:58 PM
I'm in USA and i found the debate at:

(www)  tv5.org/cms/chaine-francophone/info/France-2012/p-19111-election-presidentielle.htm

(it won't let me post the full link)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 02, 2012, 02:35:43 PM

Wait! Wait! This sounds like a French Presidential debate...

Romney would fit in well there ...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 02:37:11 PM

€10,000 bet?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 02:39:28 PM
My impressions so far:
Hollande's coming across and sincere and nice, but a victim and Sarko's just looked like a bully for the past 40 minutes.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 02:42:28 PM
Sarko: "Since 2009, France hasn't known of a recession."

Ah... um, did he just say that?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 02, 2012, 02:50:58 PM
The interruptions remind me of federal debates here in Canada.

More seriously, I don't see the needle moving. At least not yet.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 03:06:55 PM
Hollande: "That's the difference between me and you Mr Sarkozy. I'll protect the children of the Republic, you'll protect the priviledged."


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 02, 2012, 03:09:40 PM
Sarkozy sometimes looks like he'd jump over to Hollande to try and strangle him.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 03:11:34 PM
Sarkozy sometimes looks like he'd jump over to Hollande to try and strangle him.

Interesting that it was the opposite in 2007, with Segolene looking like she wanted to kill Sarko.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: danny on May 02, 2012, 03:12:48 PM
WTF, France 24 stopped showing the debate in the middle to move to an analyst, why would you do that? It's like a sports channel turning off a football match in the middle to talk about what happened so far in the match.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 03:15:34 PM
WTF, France 24 stopped showing the debate in the middle to move to an analyst, why would you do that? It's like a sports channel turning off a football match in the middle to talk about what happened so far in the match.

http://www.tv5.org/cms/chaine-francophone/info/France-2012/p-19111-election-presidentielle.htm - It's in French btw


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: afleitch on May 02, 2012, 03:21:46 PM
WTF, France 24 stopped showing the debate in the middle to move to an analyst, why would you do that? It's like a sports channel turning off a football match in the middle to talk about what happened so far in the match.

http://www.tv5.org/cms/chaine-francophone/info/France-2012/p-19111-election-presidentielle.htm - It's in French btw

You win the thread.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 03:26:30 PM
WTF, France 24 stopped showing the debate in the middle to move to an analyst, why would you do that? It's like a sports channel turning off a football match in the middle to talk about what happened so far in the match.

http://www.tv5.org/cms/chaine-francophone/info/France-2012/p-19111-election-presidentielle.htm - It's in French btw

You win the thread.

Hilarious.

Just incase anyone was expecting a dub or something.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 04:31:08 PM
Sarko to Francois: "You being normal doesn't matter."

Stick a fork in him...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 02, 2012, 04:38:25 PM
Where are our Frenchies?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 02, 2012, 04:51:50 PM
A 3 hour debate? Really!? It's nearly midnight there.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 02, 2012, 04:56:00 PM
It's better to have 2 shorter debates than this never ending thing IMO.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 02, 2012, 05:10:09 PM

I was in front of my TV, duh.


Anyways, if you're interested in my feelings on this debate, I'd say Hollande has won it. Not by a wide margin, but considering how the conventional wisdom was that Sarko was THE champion in debates, I think it's positive news for Hollande overall. Of course my opinion is biased, but all along Sarkozy seemed extremely aggressive (well, that's understandable since he is losing) and a bit desperate in trying to score all political points. While Hollande wasn't statospheric, he kept some more dignity and appeared both more serene and, at some moment "stronger" (he didn't backtrack when Sarkozy attacked, and mostly stayed firm on his positions). I hope I'm not too biased, but I think Holland was definitely better (though both had good and bad moments). Sarko eventually didn't hesitate to bring up DSK and I think this is going to hurt him in the end. People already know everything about DSK and reminding them of that should appear for what it is : petty politicking. His insinuating that Hollande knew everything about his practice was a particularly low attack and I don't see what kind of voter would be seduced by that. It was also a bit funny to see Sarko singling out voters (addressing first of all Le Pen voters, then Bayrou voters, then abstentionists, each time with a different rhetoric), while Hollande claimed to talk to French people in general (which is a bit hypocritical of course but nonetheless a more dignified political positioning). Sarkozy was, predictably, reminded of his catastrophic record and I think that, in the end, this will matter more than his constant fearmongering of a Hollande victory turning France into Greece and all this bullsh*t. So here is my take.

I would like to know what Fabien thought about it, anyways. :)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 02, 2012, 05:53:28 PM
I'm a bit lazy to explain it in English (go to my blog :P).
But it was a paradoxical debate, Hollande being even more aggressive than Sarkozy (yes, Antonio) but Sarkozy being unable not to speak about his five years and sometimes being silent...
Paradoxical also because Sarko wasn't so good on immigration, has probably gained more ground in the center than in the far-right and because Hollande didn't hesitate to drop Greens and even leftists, being able to please some Le Pen voters.

So, yes, Hollande has probably won because he hasn't lost and because Sarko wasn't, deeply inside, self-confident. And, eventually, all is back to the beginning: views of Sarko's record and Hollande pushing himself as "normal". All this campaign and this debate for nothing....

I doubt the debate will have an effect on polls, overall.
Let's expect 53-47 (but my prediction will probably be different, based on my last tracker, on Friday night).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 02, 2012, 08:31:11 PM
I love that big clock at the bottom of the set keeping track of each candidate's total time. French elections are so cool.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 03, 2012, 12:24:40 AM
I'm going to predict a 52.3-47.7 Hollande win.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 03, 2012, 03:12:54 AM
Cheminade will vote Hollande


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on May 03, 2012, 05:38:23 AM
I watched most of the debate (except the part on fiscal stuff and budgets :( I had to tend to an urgent matter), and I found both pretty awful, perhaps with Poison Dwarf being the least terrible. He'd make a good case and make me like him, then he'd remind me why I hated him. Flanby would make a good case and I'd feel happy in going to vote for him, then he reminded me why I didn't like him.

Both clearly hated each other, and both went to ridiculous lows and grasped at straws to make their hatred clear. Both were aggressive, but I found Flanby to be way more aggressive. And while both acted like Fabius le roquet in that epic debate, Flanby's knack for interrupting Sarko each time Sarko said some moronic thing was annoying and, imo, reflected poorly on him. On the issues - if such things actually matter - I think they each won on what they're strongest though Sarko's diatribe on immigration/foreigners voting was weak (perhaps because what he said was disgusting) and Flanby's position on nuclear energy was weak.

Overall, both were awful as the plague. In conclusion, a plague on both their houses. I don't know what's keeping me from spoiling my ballot if it seems Hollande will win easily.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 03, 2012, 08:39:10 AM
Didn't watch the debate, but the press over here generally seems to think Hollande won rather comfortably on points, even if it wasn't some knock-out victory. 


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 03, 2012, 11:35:00 AM
First poll that includes interviews before and after the debate by LH2:

53-47 Hollande (sample = 1565)

Among debate watchers only (sample = 498):

52-48 Hollande

Sarkozy favorable rating BEFORE the debate: 43-54
Sarkozy favorable rating AFTER the debate: 47-52

Hollande favorable rating BEFORE the debate: 47-50
Hollande favorable rating AFTER the debate: 56-43

Sarkozy is seen as more credible, more competent and dynamic than Hollande, while Hollande is seen as more likeable, serious, sincere and whatever it means - more "Proche de vos préoccupations" and more "Rassurant" and "Proche de vos convictions politiques" than Sarkozy.

Sarkozy was seen more "Presidential" in the debate by a 50-43 margin.

Hollande wins the "who was more convincing thing" in the debate by a 45-41 margin.

The poll also says that the 498 debate watchers already were 52-48 for Hollande BEFORE the debate, so no changes there.

http://www.lh2.fr/_upload/ressources/sondages/politique_nationale/lh2yahooimpactdebatteleviseentrdeuxtours3mai2012.pdf

Plz French posters, if I made any mistake with my limited French translation skills, post what was wrong ... ;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: The Mikado on May 03, 2012, 11:52:36 AM
Just a favor I'd like to ask: does anyone have a link to official (i. e. citation-worthy) French election returns?  Something like this site, but for France?

I could probably find it on my own, but I figure this is probably the sort of thing that Hashemite has bookmarked and it'd probably be easier this way.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on May 03, 2012, 01:00:54 PM



Sarkozy is seen as more credible, more competent and dynamic than Hollande, while Hollande is seen as more likeable, serious, sincere and whatever it means - more "Proche de vos préoccupations" and more "Rassurant" and "Proche de vos convictions politiques" than Sarkozy.



"Proche de vos préoccupations" = "cares about/identifies with your concerns"
"Proche de vos convictions politiques" - "closest to your political philosophy"
"Rassurant" - reassuring


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Andrea on May 03, 2012, 01:33:12 PM
Bayrou said he won't give an official advice to MoDem voters but he will personally vote for Hollande


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 03, 2012, 02:04:24 PM
Bayrou said he won't give an official advice to MoDem voters but he will personally vote for Hollande

Wow, I honestly didn't expect so much. This is a pretty courageous decision for him, considering that this definitely cuts him from his former centrist "friends", hampering any potential political future. It isn't a key endorsement for Hollande, but it's certainly a good thing to take.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 03, 2012, 02:17:24 PM
Sarkozy climbing again !

New OpinionWay survey:

52.5 to 47.5 for Hollande

Hollande down by 1.5 and Sarkozy of course up by 1.5 in the past week.

http://www.ledauphine.com/politique/2012/05/03/hollande-en-tete-(52-5-)-face-a-sarkozy-(47-5-)-malgre-une-baisse


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 03, 2012, 02:20:31 PM
If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 03, 2012, 02:24:02 PM
Enter, before Keystone Phil comes in to say Sarkozy will win re-election:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/barometre-de-la-presidentielle-2012-V9.pdf


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 03, 2012, 02:30:06 PM
If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.

Sarkozy ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 03, 2012, 02:34:57 PM
If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.

Sarkozy ?

Highlighted to make it clearer. Doesn't that sound clear in English ? Because if I spelt the sentence in French there would be no doubt on who the "him" would refer to.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 03, 2012, 02:48:26 PM
Sarkozy will be re-elected.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Jackson on May 03, 2012, 02:49:41 PM
Highlighted to make it clearer. Doesn't that sound clear in English ? Because if I spelt the sentence in French there would be no doubt on who the "him" would refer to.

That sentence should probably be written:

If someone is able to explain to me how(Sarkozy could win re-election), I'd consider him the greatest psephologist of all time.


Explain.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 03, 2012, 02:50:53 PM
If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.

Sarkozy ?

Highlighted to make it clearer. Doesn't that sound clear in English ? Because if I spelt the sentence in French there would be no doubt on who the "him" would refer to.

OK, I read the sentence too fast. But now I understand what you wanna say.

Why is Sarkozy closing the gap ?

Sarkozy collecting most of the right- and center-voters of which there are a lot according to the first round.

Even if 15% of Melenchon's voters vote for Sarkozy, Hollande could be in trouble if many LePen voters also hold their noses and vote for Sarkozy.

But, the good thing is that Bayrou's decision today might have saved Hollande from a really close race.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Simfan34 on May 03, 2012, 02:52:35 PM
This is looking surprisingly good.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 03, 2012, 02:53:29 PM
Sarkozy will be re-elected.

So I can have some bragging rights too if that still-unlikely scenario occurs.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 03, 2012, 02:54:35 PM
Highlighted to make it clearer. Doesn't that sound clear in English ? Because if I spelt the sentence in French there would be no doubt on who the "him" would refer to.

That sentence should probably be written:

If someone is able to explain to me how(Sarkozy could win re-election), I'd consider him the greatest psephologist of all time.


Explain.

What is with you people? What needs to be explained? I believe he will receive more votes in Sunday's election than Francois Hollande. Disagree? Cool. Not sure what has to be explained though.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: LastVoter on May 03, 2012, 02:55:56 PM
I think Sarkozy is done now that Bayrou endorsed Hollande.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 03, 2012, 02:56:55 PM
Even if this is a mini-bump (which I won't believe until another poll backs it up) there isn't enough time when voting starts in under 3 days. Has France ever had a Dewey Defeats Truman moment? I'd be thrilled if Sarko pulls it out but will only believe it when I see it.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Meeker on May 03, 2012, 03:23:05 PM
Wake me up when Sarkozy actually ties or leads a poll.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 03, 2012, 03:26:13 PM

OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 03, 2012, 03:35:35 PM

OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?

Oh, yeah, there is a reason: because I think he's going to win. Next stupid question, please...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 03, 2012, 03:51:24 PM
Don't feed the troll, kids


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 03, 2012, 04:16:46 PM

"Explain."


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on May 03, 2012, 04:20:53 PM

OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?

Oh, yeah, there is a reason: because I think he's going to win. Next stupid question, please...

BTW: Have you figured out how to get santorum stains out of your bed sheets? What's the best detergent?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 03, 2012, 04:23:17 PM

OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?

Oh, yeah, there is a reason: because I think he's going to win. Next stupid question, please...

BTW: Have you figured out how to get santorum stains out of your bed sheets? What's the best detergent?

My detractors have achieved the moral high ground here!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Sbane on May 03, 2012, 04:26:34 PM
Phil, are you just going by your gut with these predictions. I guess you mentioned the "shy Sarkozy effect", but is there any proof of that? Others seem to have debunked that.....Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 03, 2012, 04:31:18 PM
Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

I'm confused. Now we make fun of people when their predictions are correct?

For those that make fun of me either way for political predictions, I think they need to seek out The Professor for advice in certain areas.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Sbane on May 03, 2012, 04:40:42 PM
Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

I'm confused. Now we make fun of people when their predictions are correct?

For those that make fun of me either way for political predictions, I think they need to seek out The Professor for advice in certain areas.

Hey if you made a thoughtful prediction backed up by some evidence of thought.....


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 03, 2012, 05:15:02 PM
Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

I'm confused. Now we make fun of people when their predictions are correct?

For those that make fun of me either way for political predictions, I think they need to seek out The Professor for advice in certain areas.

Hey if you made a thoughtful prediction backed up by some evidence of thought.....

"Thoughtful prediction": "OBVIOUSLY HOLLANDE BY SIX TO EIGHT POINTS. SARKOZY IS DONE! ALLEZ FRANCOIS!"

Please don't seriously try to tell me that anything other than that would be deemed "thoughtful" by the denizens of this board. The predictions, signatures, commentary, etc. have been anything but thoughtful.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 03, 2012, 05:37:42 PM
If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.

Sarkozy ?

Highlighted to make it clearer. Doesn't that sound clear in English ? Because if I spelt the sentence in French there would be no doubt on who the "him" would refer to.

OK, I read the sentence too fast. But now I understand what you wanna say.

Why is Sarkozy closing the gap ?

Sarkozy collecting most of the right- and center-voters of which there are a lot according to the first round.

Even if 15% of Melenchon's voters vote for Sarkozy, Hollande could be in trouble if many LePen voters also hold their noses and vote for Sarkozy.

But, the good thing is that Bayrou's decision today might have saved Hollande from a really close race.

Bayrou's endorsement won't have any effect: it just pollutes the last days of campaign for Sarkozy.
We are on something like 53-47 currently (my last tracker tomorrow ;)).

Have just published the latest polls on my blog. CSA 53-47, LH2 53-47, OpinionWay 52.5-47.5, IFOP 53-47, Harris 53-47.
Last BVA was 53.5-46.5 and last IPSOS 53-47.
Let's wait for IFOP tomorrow and maybe IPSOS and TNS-Sofres.

(Math would ba ble to tell us which polls are planned, but he doesn't post any longer since I've noticed he stole one article from my blog :P Too bad !)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on May 03, 2012, 05:52:49 PM
Locking this thread pre-emptively seems like a nice idea.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Meeker on May 03, 2012, 06:22:15 PM
Locking this thread pre-emptively seems like a nice idea.

Yeah, I think any insightful discussion has probably come to a close.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 03, 2012, 06:50:33 PM
Why can't the troll go to the prediction thread I've opened ?
It's not aimed to remain a very serious and useful thread, so... go there, please :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 03, 2012, 07:28:12 PM
Why can't the troll go to the prediction thread I've opened ?

Wow. Ok, dude.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bacon King on May 03, 2012, 08:50:46 PM
Enter, before Keystone Phil comes in to say Sarkozy will win re-election:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/barometre-de-la-presidentielle-2012-V9.pdf

Wow, a bit interesting. Comparing OpinionWay's poll from last week to today, it looks like most of the 1.5 point swing is due to a few very specific shifts.

There's a huge change for younger voters; 18-24 year olds go from 61% Hollande to 54% Hollande. I don't know if that's just due to a small sub-sample size or what.

There's a significant shift in Le Pen's supporters; Hollande loses eight points with most of the change due to an increase number of PanzerGirl voters saying they'll abstain. That makes sense.

However, Melenchon's supporters went from 91% Hollande, 2% Sarko, 7% not voting, to 77% Hollande, 9% Sarkozy, 14% not voting. This seems a bit off. I can understand more leftists deciding to stay home, but what sort of Melenchon voter would actually be voting for Sarko over Hollande?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 04, 2012, 04:50:46 AM
Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

I'm confused. Now we make fun of people when their predictions are correct?

For those that make fun of me either way for political predictions, I think they need to seek out The Professor for advice in certain areas.

Hey if you made a thoughtful prediction backed up by some evidence of thought.....

"Thoughtful prediction": "OBVIOUSLY HOLLANDE BY SIX TO EIGHT POINTS. SARKOZY IS DONE! ALLEZ FRANCOIS!"

The thing is, content-wise, that actually is thoughtful in that it's based on evidence and facts, although four to six is looking more likely now.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 04, 2012, 05:08:26 AM
There are 4 surveys out now (all conducted yesterday) and Sarkozy has an average of 47.1%

I would probably start to worry a bit if he breaks 48%, but I think Hollande has this now.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 04, 2012, 08:18:56 AM
Germans strongly favor Sarkozy over Hollande (quite surprising):

Quote
(Reuters) - A majority of Germans across the political spectrum support Chancellor Angela Merkel's insistence that the euro zone stick with tough austerity measures to reduce its heavy debt load, according to a poll published on Friday.

The results of the Infratest Dimap survey, published in Die Welt newspaper, will provide political cover for Merkel as she faces increased calls in the euro zone for a softening of fiscal discipline and a greater emphasis on boosting economic growth.

The poll showed 55 percent of Germans favor keeping the focus on budget discipline - including a majority of those supporting the main opposition parties - and only 33 percent back growth initiatives funded by new credits.

Germany's own economy, the largest in Europe, is performing strongly despite the euro zone debt crisis and unemployment is at two-decade lows. But German taxpayers are unhappy about having to bail out heavily indebted countries such as Greece which many here regard as spendthrift and feckless.

Socialist candidate Francois Hollande, tipped to win France's presidential runoff on Sunday, has said he will make reviving economic growth his top priority if elected and has criticized Merkel's heavy focus on budget cuts and tax hikes.

The survey showed 50 percent of Germans polled backed French President Nicolas Sarkozy, a centre-right ally of Merkel, for a second five-year term, while only 24 percent preferred Hollande.

At home, Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) remain the most popular party with 34 percent, comfortably ahead of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) at 28 percent, the poll showed.

But the CDU's current coalition ally, the liberal Free Democrats, would win only 4 percent of the vote, below the 5 percent threshold for entering parliament. This would force Merkel to look for another coalition partner.

Political analysts see a 'grand coalition' of the CDU and the SPD as the most likely alternative if the FDP is ousted from the Bundestag lower house after the 2013 national election.

The Infratest Dimap poll was conducted among 1,004 people on April 30 and May 1.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/04/us-germany-austerity-poll-idUSBRE8430KZ20120504


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 04, 2012, 09:05:53 AM
BTW, some TV journalists have been assaulted by UMP militants during a Sarkozy meeting yesterday. It apparently hasn't had been much reported in the news, but I still find it quite telling about the feelings among Sarko's campaign.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 04, 2012, 09:22:20 AM
Sky just pronounced Bayrou as Bi-roo. Christ.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 04, 2012, 09:37:10 AM

You mean like Bee-roo ?

The correct pronounciation is obviously By-roo, though some in France still call him Beh-roo.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 04, 2012, 09:41:17 AM

You mean like Bee-roo ?

The correct pronounciation is obviously By-roo, though some in France still call him Beh-roo.

Bee-roo, yeh


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 04, 2012, 09:45:21 AM

Oh, what animals!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 04, 2012, 09:48:18 AM
They should really pronounce it "perennial candidate"


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 04, 2012, 09:52:49 AM
They should really pronounce it "perennial candidate"

"Perennial candidate" ? You don't know France.

Laguiller : 6 candidacies (74, 81, 88, 95, 02, 07)
Le Pen : 5 candidacies (74, 88, 95, 02, 07)
Mitterrand : 4 candidacies (65, 74, 81, 88)
Chirac : 4 candidacies (81, 88, 95, 02)

Bayrou ran only 3 times... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 04, 2012, 10:24:43 AM
Correct answer is probably, [bajru].

Exactly. This might, however, confuse our Anglo posters, who are used to speak a language whose phonetics are so ridiculously f**ked up. :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 04, 2012, 11:35:24 AM
()

New IFOP poll:

52% Hollande
48% Sarkozy


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 04, 2012, 11:44:07 AM
Yeah, Phil, we know, Sarkozy will be reelected.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MaxQue on May 04, 2012, 11:46:50 AM
What?
Bayrou isn't pronounced Beh-rou?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 04, 2012, 11:55:09 AM

Nope, but this is the kind of mistake every single journalist makes. Sort of how everybody called Mitterrand Mitt'rand.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Insula Dei on May 04, 2012, 03:44:35 PM
Yeah I noticed someone pronouncing it Beh-rou as well on France 2 and thinking to myself that I had been mispronouncing the name for all that time. I feel vindicated now.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Beet on May 04, 2012, 03:50:16 PM
Come on guys, Hollande can do this. He can do this!!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 04, 2012, 04:06:35 PM
Come on guys, Hollande can do this. He can do this!!

No, no no. You're wrong. He must do this.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 04, 2012, 04:16:04 PM
Come on guys, Hollande can do this. He can do this!!

No, no no. You're wrong. He must do this.

Come on, what are the chances that Nicolas gain 2% in two days?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on May 04, 2012, 04:17:40 PM
At least the map won't be boring as hell.

Not to sound like a pedant, but I basically predicted a fairly close finish when every leftie had masturbatory moments over the 60-40 and 62-38 polls.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 04, 2012, 04:26:21 PM
At least the map won't be boring as hell.

Not to sound like a pedant, but I basically predicted a fairly close finish when every leftie had masturbatory moments over the 60-40 and 62-38 polls.

I never thought this would last. But 54/46 (or even 55/45) was a fairly probably outcome, especially after Sarko was unable to even come ahead of the first round.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bacon King on May 04, 2012, 04:29:30 PM
New IFOP poll:

52% Hollande
48% Sarkozy

BK poll analysis (which usually goes ignored, but still)

Shift is mostly due to Bayrou voters shifting from supporting Hollande to abstaining, and previously abstentionist Le Pen voters breaking to Sarkozy. Fairly expected I suppose. 


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: big bad fab on May 04, 2012, 05:10:28 PM
BREAKING NEWS !

2012 Big Bad Tracker #55 - 4 May 2012   



My very last tracker !!! :P      

With raw datas :
Hollande 52.95
Sarkozy 47.05

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 52.97
Sarkozy 47.03

No, I haven't cheated.

Simple average of all the last polls of each pollster, without weighting: 52.75 / 47.25
Weighted average of all the last polls of each pollster: 52.70 / 47.30

Now, you can go to the prediction thread and put all the mess you want :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: minionofmidas on May 05, 2012, 03:49:33 AM
A last minute shift toward closeness, in a race between two long established candidates that ought to be easily pollable, but not quite towards "up for grabs now!" territory.

1/6 says the pollsters are right. 1/5 says they're being way to cautious and will have egg on their face when Sarkozy comes within a point or wins tomorrow. 19/30 says they're just making it up and Hollande will win by 54.5-45.5 just like they predicted last week.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 05, 2012, 04:02:34 AM
()

I still don't get this.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bacon King on May 05, 2012, 06:23:30 AM

The trend isn't that odd. As I've looked at the polls over the last few weeks, while there's been a lot of statistical noise in the break-downs, there's one trend that's generally been consistent. The closer the election has gotten, more and more Le Pen voters are deciding to support Sarkozy instead of not voting in the second round.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 05, 2012, 08:19:33 AM
Polls say Sarko has been gaining ground on both Le Pen and Bayrou voters. But I still fail to see a reason why he would. Well, maybe a couple Le Pen voters could like his recent populist turn, but most of them should see it as opportunist pandering (especially since he was already assured to take a half of them, the other half should be harsher for him). As for Bayrou voters : ???.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 05, 2012, 08:20:26 AM
Ah, tomorrow...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: ZuWo on May 05, 2012, 09:29:47 AM
I've read that the polls after the debate showed that while Hollande was considered slightly more convincing than Sarkozy in the presidential debate overall, a majority of Bayrou and Le Pen voters thought Sarkozy did better on that front. This may explain why Sarkozy appears to be gaining votes both among Bayrou and Le Pen voters.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 05, 2012, 09:45:37 AM
What about this scenario ?

()

"THE FINAL CHART"

;)


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on May 05, 2012, 09:52:34 AM
Just voted. Lots of Sarko ballots in the trash can, but it's no shocker that French teachers in Ottawa are a bunch of pinko-commies.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: DL on May 05, 2012, 10:19:51 AM
In 2007 the final polls tended to overestimate Sarkozy by about 1.5% not that this means we should expect a similar spread. As has been said earlier, French presidential elections are like US elections for president. They are always close. a really solid win means winning 53-47...let's not forget that Obama is viewed as having won a landslide over McCain in 2008 and the popular vote was just 51-46%...I suspect that Hollande will win by about a 5% margin.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 05, 2012, 10:21:15 AM
Obama beat McCain 53% to 46%, not 51% to 46%.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 05, 2012, 10:41:32 AM
Obama beat McCain 53% to 46%, not 51% to 46%.

You forgot the Bradley effect.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 05, 2012, 10:48:45 AM
What about this scenario ?

()

"THE FINAL CHART"

;)

Well, crossing fingers... :P This is really what should happen.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 05, 2012, 05:05:33 PM
Omg I'm getting really nervous now actually.  One question: is the Front de Gauche staying together for the parliamentary elections, or are the individual parties in it competing independently? 


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bacon King on May 05, 2012, 05:59:14 PM
One question: is the Front de Gauche staying together for the parliamentary elections, or are the individual parties in it competing independently? 

They agreed in 2011 that they'd keep the Front united for the parliamentary election. Their candidates are apparently ~80% PCF, ~20% PG, though they're contesting a handful of seats with assorted minor party and leftist independent candidates.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 05, 2012, 06:05:23 PM
Obama beat McCain 53% to 46%, not 51% to 46%.

You forgot the Bradley effect.

Not to mention the Shy Sarkozy effect!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on May 05, 2012, 06:09:08 PM
FTR, the PG currently holds two seats: Marc Dolez, a former PS deputy in the Nord who was one of the party's founding members, and Martine Billard, a former leftie Green deputy from Paris who joined the party in 2009 and whose constituency was 'exploded' by the redistricting. It is unlikely that she will be reelected.
 
edit: oops, forgot Jacques Desallangre (Aisne).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 05, 2012, 06:11:28 PM
I really hope Hollande doesn't turn out to be the PS's answer to Neil Kinnock....


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 05, 2012, 06:21:43 PM
When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 05, 2012, 06:54:13 PM
When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?

Official exit polls at 8 (French Time) and results quickly after.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 05, 2012, 06:59:47 PM
I'll assume Hollande wins until the results tell us otherwise. Less than 2% margin if so.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: netzero19 on May 05, 2012, 07:03:51 PM
When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?

Official exit polls at 8 (French Time) and results quickly after.

8 AM?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 05, 2012, 07:05:35 PM
When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?

Official exit polls at 8 (French Time) and results quickly after.

8 AM?

8 PM. So 2 PM Eastern.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on May 05, 2012, 07:25:32 PM
Again, for those over here who care, I'll have a serious liveblog starting at 6PM/noon eastern. Once again, I'll request, and I'm sure Al will back me up on this, that nobody directly posts the leaked exit polls for those who like suspense and living in the dark about such stuff. Look it up yourself if you can't hold yourself, but don't post it here.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Bacon King on May 05, 2012, 07:35:40 PM
Again, for those over here who care, I'll have a serious liveblog starting at 6PM/noon eastern. Once again, I'll request, and I'm sure Al will back me up on this, that nobody directly posts the leaked exit polls for those who like suspense and living in the dark about such stuff. Look it up yourself if you can't hold yourself, but don't post it here.

Thank's for the head's up. I'll definitely be following your liveblog.

Also, regarding leaked exit polls and such, would it not be acceptable to use tinytext or white font, as a sort of ad hoc spoiler tag?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 05, 2012, 08:25:11 PM
Slightly OT: Didn't realise Martine Aubry was Jacques Delors' daughter. Mind blown.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on May 05, 2012, 08:28:39 PM
Again, for those over here who care, I'll have a serious liveblog starting at 6PM/noon eastern. Once again, I'll request, and I'm sure Al will back me up on this, that nobody directly posts the leaked exit polls for those who like suspense and living in the dark about such stuff. Look it up yourself if you can't hold yourself, but don't post it here.

Thank's for the head's up. I'll definitely be following your liveblog.

Also, regarding leaked exit polls and such, would it not be acceptable to use tinytext or white font, as a sort of ad hoc spoiler tag?

I don't have a problem with people posting links to URLs where the details may be found, as long as the URLs themselves aren't spoilers. At any rate, it's only 1.5 hours. It shouldn't be hard to behave and not spoil the fun of others,


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 05, 2012, 11:18:55 PM
When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?

Official exit polls at 8 (French Time) and results quickly after.

8 AM?

You must be new when it comes to elections.

I've never heard of a country that closes at 8 AM ... :P


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Kushahontas on May 05, 2012, 11:47:34 PM
When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?

Official exit polls at 8 (French Time) and results quickly after.

8 AM?

You must be new when it comes to elections.

I've never heard of a country that closes at 8 AM ... :P

Irish exit polls are released around that time of the morning because of the complex counting of STV...


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 05, 2012, 11:55:40 PM
When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?

Official exit polls at 8 (French Time) and results quickly after.

8 AM?

You must be new when it comes to elections.

I've never heard of a country that closes at 8 AM ... :P

Irish exit polls are released around that time of the morning because of the complex counting of STV...

But the day after the election day, right ?

Not at 8am on election day (?).


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on May 06, 2012, 03:01:18 AM
Sarkozy will be re-elected!


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 03:31:34 AM

Has someone ever closed a 28-point gap and won ?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 06, 2012, 04:28:33 AM
If Sarkozy wins it will be one of the greatest upsets in the history of modern polling. Hollande has led Sarkozy in a two-way race in every single poll taken since November 2010.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: politicus on May 06, 2012, 04:43:14 AM
Slightly OT: Didn't realise Martine Aubry was Jacques Delors' daughter. Mind blown.
Why? They are not that different in political outlook.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2012, 06:16:13 AM
Slightly OT: Didn't realise Martine Aubry was Jacques Delors' daughter. Mind blown.
Why? They are not that different in political outlook.

I know. Just didn't realise they were related.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2012, 06:57:11 AM
Just to make the rules on leaked exit polls and so on clear, if you want to post such rumours you must either post just a link or write in a very small size perhaps also in white. Not hard to stick to, I hope, and it makes things less irritating for those who don't like spoilers.*

*Which doesn't really include me; I always read the last page of a book first, you know?


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 06, 2012, 08:03:37 AM

You're doing it wrong.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: ZuWo on May 06, 2012, 08:12:06 AM
Spoiler alert! Do not click if you want to wait for official numbers!!!

http://www.tdg.ch/monde/francois-hollande-obtiendrait-53-suffrages-nicolas-sarkozy/story/15086944


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Hash on May 06, 2012, 08:17:53 AM
BREAKING: Jean Royer elected President!

On a serious note, this thread will soon be locked.


Title: Re: France 2012: the official thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 06, 2012, 08:33:51 AM
I hate goodbyes...