Talk Elections

Right now the Mississippi H of R is split 69D and 53R.  When do you think the GOP will take control?  
- In this coming November's election?
- In Nov 2015?  
- Or perhaps will there be nine party switchers before the November elections?

Party switchers will give them control is my guess.

If not, than the election will give them a solid majority.

My guess is in November.

N3var! N3var I say!

Seriously? This november is a reasonable proposition. Party switchers during the 2011-5 term is another one.

I should have included "not in the foreseeable future" as an option, I do admit.

Well, party switchers often want to be members of the majority party because they're opportunistic SOBs. So they would probably wait until the November election to see what happens, I imagine... Though we shall see if they freak out and try to preemptively switch.

November at the latest.

Well, it did turn out to be in the Nov 2011 election.  At latest count, I think it stands 65R, 57D.

Was there a second party switch in the House?

Does it really matter? A good chunk of the Democrats are basically Republicans with a slight populist streak.

Yes, I also prefer a House controlled by republicans who ran as republicans than one controlled by republicans who, I don't know why, decided to be labeled as "democrats" in this year elections..

Same.  The Mississippi Democratic Party is as progressive as a 100-year-old woman from Alabama.

The difference between Republicans and white Democrats is that Republicans stand for a certain Republican message, whereas Democrats stand only for themselves.

Like myself!? Thats pretty much how I describe myself on my profile!

Nah, to the right of you even on fiscal issues.

I think I recall reading somewhere that nearly all Democrat legislators in Mississippi are black.  Is that true?

'Last I heard, it was about 70-75%, but I could be wrong.

Less so. After this election, by some counts, there was 37 black and 22 white Democrats in House. That's abiut 63% black. 1 (white, of course) already switched....

My dad has always said by 2020 or so, the Mississippi Legislature will consist of two things:  white Republicans and black Democrats.  He's probably right.

Unfortunately, there will always be some districts that are in the sweet spot for a White Democrat: Black percentage in the low forties.

Why is that unfortunate?

Because, as a partisan Republican, he wants the Democratic Party to look as black as possible in all southern states. Kind of like how many partisan Democrats want the Republican Party to look as Fundamentalist as possible, generally.

1) You have presented speculation as to my motivations as fact. That's pathetic, and morally offensive.

2) You are simply wrong.

3) The claim that I am "a partisan Republican" is, again, your speculation presented as fact. At least this speculation on your part is based on some empirical observations. I have profound disagreements with the Left. Almost no Democratic candidates do. There is hardly an election where my political interests are further by the election of the Democrat. Is that hard for you to understand?

Had you read any of comments on Bush I, Bush II, or McCain you would radically rethink your assertion.

4) In district after district you see electorates that are about 45% Black of various ideologies, 45% Conservative, or Conservative-leaning and White, and 10% White liberal. I find it nondemocratic that those districts nearly uniformly represent the 10%.

5) Destroying White liberals as pernicious influence in Democratic primaries, hopefully, will create a dynamic where Black nominees are, also, conservative. Whether tweedle-dee or tweedle-are is elected, conservatism wins.

How many times must the conservative myth of "blacks are mostly conservative and just vote Democratic out of habit" be disproven unit conservatives stop repeating it?

That "myth" simply isn't a myth. While I would agree that Blacks aren't particularly economically conservative, they are far from socially liberal. For instance, Black voters made the difference in upholding marrige in California.

lol

()

And personhood in Mississippi.

What movie is that from?

You know, I have no idea.

Sarcasm won't alter the fact that you presented speculation as fact. That was pathetic, and morally offensive.

lol

Marrige wasn't upheld in California, chiefly because there's no such thing as marrige, but neither was marriage. It was stripped from a segment of the population that had previously been held to enjoy it as a right by changing the constitution of the state, which isn't how the verb 'to uphold' is conventionally defined.

Most White Democrats in Mississippi are far from liberal. Black Democrats are generally to the left of White Democrats in MS.