Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: tmthforu94 on February 07, 2011, 06:21:44 PM



Title: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on February 07, 2011, 06:21:44 PM
United States Senate:

Republican Candidate
State Treasurer Richard Mourdock

Democratic Candidate
Congressman Joe Donnelly

Tmth Rating: Tilt Republican

US House Races:

IN-01
Republican Candidate
Mr. Joel Phelps

Democratic Candidate
Congressman Pete Visclosky

Tmth Rating: Safe Democratic

IN-02
Republican Candidate
Ms. Jackie Walorski

Democratic Candidate
Mr. Brendan Mullen

Tmth Rating: Likely Republican

IN-03
Republican Candidate
Congressman Marlin Stutzman

Democratic Candidate
Rev. Kevin Boyd

Tmth Rating: Safe Republican

IN-04
Republican Candidate
Congressman Todd Rokita

Democratic Candidate
Ms. Tara Nelson

Tmth Rating: Safe Republican

IN-05
Republican Candidate
Ms. Susan Brooks

Democratic Candidate
Mr. Scott Reske

Tmth Rating: Safe Republican

IN-06
Republican Candidate
Mr. Luke Messer

Democratic Candidate
Mr. Brad Bookout

Tmth Rating: Safe Republican

IN-07
Republican Candidate
Mr. Carlos May

Democratic Candidate
Congressman Andre Carson

Tmth Rating: Safe Democratic

IN-08
Republican Candidate
Congressman Larry Bucshon

Democratic Candidate
Mr. Dave Crooks

Tmth Rating: Likely Republican

IN-09
Republican Candidate
Congressman Todd Young

Democratic Candidate
Ms. Shelli Yoder

Tmth Rating: Likely Republican

Analysis: Joe Donnelly is pretty decent candidate for Indiana. There are two area's he fails at though - Area 1 is he isn't as likeable as a Democrat needs to be to win. Secondly is his support for Obamacare - that right there killed him for me, and I know many other Lugar Republicans feel the same way. Mourdock is way out there, but at the end of the day, people are going to be voting as a referendum on Barack Obama, and because of that, I expect Mourdock to win by around 5 points.

For the House races, the only race that could be somewhat close is my district, the "Bloody 8th". Walorski has things wrapped up in the 2nd, and I don't think Young was ever in serious trouble in the 9th. Bucshon just isn't that good of a politician, and his opponent, Dave Crooks, has outraised him. Democrats have an eye on this seat, but they aren't focusing too much - neither candidate has been on the air much, but it's a ground game operation, and at the end of the day, I still expect Bucshon to win by around a 55-45 margin - he just isn't controversial enough to lose.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on February 07, 2011, 07:09:13 PM
http://www.jconline.com/article/20110206/NEWS02/102060344/

Though I guess Mourdock hasn't officially declared it, he's "made a decision" and will begin touring the state in a couple weeks to give the special announcement.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: AndrewTX on February 07, 2011, 09:34:45 PM
http://www.jconline.com/article/20110206/NEWS02/102060344/

Though I guess Mourdock hasn't officially declared it, he's "made a decision" and will begin touring the state in a couple weeks to give the special announcement.

Do you think it might be possible he is doing this to get his name out there, bring in funds, than run for Governor?


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on February 07, 2011, 10:08:24 PM
http://www.jconline.com/article/20110206/NEWS02/102060344/

Though I guess Mourdock hasn't officially declared it, he's "made a decision" and will begin touring the state in a couple weeks to give the special announcement.

Do you think it might be possible he is doing this to get his name out there, bring in funds, than run for Governor?
No, he's said he's said, that "a lot of people have been asking me if I'm going to run for the US Senate seat. I've made a decision, and within a couple weeks, I'll be touring the state to make a special announcement.

And besides, he's not going to run for Governor. That's Pence's divine right. :P


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: krazen1211 on February 08, 2011, 10:07:36 AM
If we run Torie's map, dumping Bloomington into CD-7, CD-9 is also safe.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Torie on February 08, 2011, 10:08:34 AM
It is almost impossible with redistricting not to make IN-09 (Baron Hill's old seat now held by Young), into anything  other than a GOP bastion. In my map, IN-09 voted 57.82% for McCain, up from about 51% McCain. IN-09 has to expand, and it's Pubbie country in all directions it can expand into from its SE corner of the state. IN-02 is now at 53% McCain, up from 45% McCain. I expect to see these kind of numbers in the new map, assuming the GOP has the guts to append Monroe County to Indianapolis, and do the South Bend and Elkhart chops to give IN-02 a big Pubbie shove.

So I suspect both Hill and Donnelly will be running for statewide office, both probably losing, and then retiring from politics.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Napoleon on February 08, 2011, 05:06:40 PM
Baron Hill would put up a good fight against Pence. Pence is super conservative and Hill is quite centrist, even a tad conservative.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: SvenssonRS on February 08, 2011, 05:56:49 PM
Baron Hill would put up a good fight against Pence. Pence is super conservative and Hill is quite centrist, even a tad conservative.

He's also denied any interest whatsoever.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on February 09, 2011, 03:06:12 PM
If Silent Joe runs for Senate or governor, who do the Democrats get to oppose Walorski?


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: JoeyJoeJoe on February 09, 2011, 06:47:40 PM
Would Republicans really redistrict the 2nd with Walorski specifically in mind?  It seems like she wasn't particularly popular among Republicans and a weak candidate.  I figured that Republicans had to have someone better here.

As for the 9th, it can act contrary to expectations.  Dems tried redistricting it to prevent Lee Hamilton from losing it in 1966, and took Dems out of the 8th.  Hamilton won big in 1966, so he didn't need the extra votes Dems put there, and Winfield Denton, the 8th CD dem, lost because he lost those Dems from the seat.  Oops


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on February 10, 2011, 04:21:08 PM
And why do you say Walorski was weak?


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Brittain33 on February 10, 2011, 04:46:49 PM

Isn't it tautological? She lost in IN-2 in 2010.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on February 10, 2011, 05:52:57 PM
Besides the fact that she lost. The slightest tweak in the district lines and she wins. Say they put all of Howard county into the second, Jackie wins comfortably.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: JoeyJoeJoe on February 10, 2011, 10:04:47 PM
A better Republican candidate probably would have won (which would have restored the district's tradition of unseating incumbents in years ending in zero).


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on February 10, 2011, 10:52:19 PM
A better Republican candidate probably would have won (which would have restored the district's tradition of unseating incumbents in years ending in zero).
She came very close to unseating someone who won by just 20 points 2 years earlier, and probably would have won if it hadn't been for the Libertarian in the race. Was she the greatest campaigner in the world? No, but I don't think we could (or can) get anyone better with more name recognition.

Republicans will create a Walorski-friendly district. I've heard legislators talking about it. In November 2012, Jackie Walorski will be elected to the US House with over 50%. I'm calling it now.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on February 11, 2011, 02:16:45 AM
A better Republican candidate probably would have won (which would have restored the district's tradition of unseating incumbents in years ending in zero).
She came very close to unseating someone who won by just 20 points 2 years earlier, and probably would have won if it hadn't been for the Libertarian in the race. Was she the greatest campaigner in the world? No, but I don't think we could (or can) get anyone better with more name recognition.

Republicans will create a Walorski-friendly district. I've heard legislators talking about it. In November 2012, Jackie Walorski will be elected to the US House with over 50%. I'm calling it now.

And I plan to have a hand in that becoming reality.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: feeblepizza on February 11, 2011, 09:39:44 AM

Isn't it tautological? She lost in IN-2 in 2010.

Sure, but she came very, very close to winning in IN-02. Indiana legislators are going to create a GOP friendly district in 2012 so that she can make a comeback. I doubt that Donnelly will even run for reelection, then, however. He's more likely to set his sights on a campaign for Governor or for the Senate.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on February 12, 2011, 12:13:42 AM
Only time will tell


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 08, 2011, 07:43:29 PM
http://www.indystar.com/article/20110331/LOCAL01/103310353/1115/LOCAL0104/Donnelly-floats-ideas-Senate-campaign

Joe Donnelly appears to be strongly considering a run for the Senate to avoid losing to Jackie Walorski. No surprise here at all. I'm confident Lugar would be able to easily beat him, though not so sure on Mourdock.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 08, 2011, 11:19:43 AM
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/05/donnelly-to-ann.php

"Silent Joe" apparently has decided he wants to lose to Richard Lugar/Mourdock, and will be announcing his quest to do just that on Monday.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: timothyinMD on May 08, 2011, 06:56:11 PM
Donnelly doesn't have a chance. 

Dems got to hand select their dream candidate in 2010.  A young, handsome, "moderate" representative, and he was destroyed by an old has-been former Senator. 

Lugar's going to lose, and so is Donnelly


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: feeblepizza on May 08, 2011, 06:59:03 PM
Dems got to hand select their dream candidate in 2010.  A young, handsome, "moderate" representative, and he was destroyed by an old has-been former Senator.
He would have beat any other Republican besides Stutzman.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on May 09, 2011, 02:45:06 PM
Dems got to hand select their dream candidate in 2010.  A young, handsome, "moderate" representative, and he was destroyed by an old has-been former Senator.
He would have beat any other Republican besides Stutzman.

Among those running, definately. I don't see how he would have beat a Pence, Daniels, Rodkita, or the like if they had run for it, though.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 10, 2011, 02:01:18 PM
Dems got to hand select their dream candidate in 2010.  A young, handsome, "moderate" representative, and he was destroyed by an old has-been former Senator.
He would have beat any other Republican besides Stutzman.
Stutzman would have crushed Ellsworth. He was the perfect candidate for Indiana.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 27, 2011, 01:58:01 PM
http://www.southbendtribune.com/sbt-goshen-lawyer-running-for-congress-20110506,0,6197225.story

There are now two candidates in the race for IN-02, most notably Jackie Walorski. She has officially declared a run. I've also heard, regarding IN-09, that Baron Hill will not be challenging Todd Young to a rematch.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on May 28, 2011, 07:13:18 PM
I wonder if Hill has his eyes on a statewide race later on. Like for Senate in 2016. Coats doesn't seem like someone that would get entrenched very much and might even retire at that point. It is also possible that Hill is done with politics, I guess.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Dgov on May 28, 2011, 07:33:28 PM
I wonder if Hill has his eyes on a statewide race later on. Like for Senate in 2016. Coats doesn't seem like someone that would get entrenched very much and might even retire at that point. It is also possible that Hill is done with politics, I guess.

Well, he's run tight races Literally for the last 5 elections, winning 3 and losing 2, so "Candidate Fatigue" might be setting in.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 28, 2011, 09:47:26 PM
I wonder if Hill has his eyes on a statewide race later on. Like for Senate in 2016. Coats doesn't seem like someone that would get entrenched very much and might even retire at that point. It is also possible that Hill is done with politics, I guess.

Well, he's run tight races Literally for the last 5 elections, winning 3 and losing 2, so "Candidate Fatigue" might be setting in.
He only lost once. ;)

I can't see Hill running - if he were to run, he would have ran in 2012, probably for Governor.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 17, 2011, 11:01:26 PM
http://www.courierpress.com/news/2011/jul/17/missteps-may-imperil-mourdocks-bid/?partner=yahoo_feeds

A good article on the 2012 race, why Mourdock doesn't have as great of a chance as people think.

Worked the GOP stand at the county fair today, met some interesting folks. One kept talking on and on about communism, I thought I had entered a time machine. It's becoming clearer to me the less-educated folks around here are supported Mourdock while just about everyone else is supporting Lugar. Also found a Romney/Mourdock supporter, which literally caused me to LOL.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on July 18, 2011, 04:18:32 PM
http://www.courierpress.com/news/2011/jul/17/missteps-may-imperil-mourdocks-bid/?partner=yahoo_feeds

A good article on the 2012 race, why Mourdock doesn't have as great of a chance as people think.

Worked the GOP stand at the county fair today, met some interesting folks. One kept talking on and on about communism, I thought I had entered a time machine. It's becoming clearer to me the less-educated folks around here are supported Mourdock while just about everyone else is supporting Lugar. Also found a Romney/Mourdock supporter, which literally caused me to LOL.

A Romney/Mourdock supporter..... That makes no sense. So says a Paul/undecided.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on July 18, 2011, 08:50:34 PM
Actually it does make sense.


If you are a supporter of term limits and dispise long term incumbents. I remember talking with some big Romney fans back in 2008, who despised all long term incumbents. If you want enforcement first/only immigration policy since Romney did cater to them big time when trying to outflank McCain in 2006/2007 and Lugar supported McCain-Kennedy. If you opposed the treaty with Russia which Lugar was a supporter and Romney an opponent (Didn't Romney come out against it? I remember an email from his PAC saying why it was bad, but I could be wrong.). There are a few others, but right now I can't think of them.


Do note that the above views do not automatically reflect the views of the poster named NC Yankee, but rather represent a list of potential reasons why someone would be a Romney/Mourdock supporter. :P


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Niemeyerite on July 19, 2011, 09:32:06 AM
Jim DeMint is a Romney/Mourdock supporter, I think.
He supported Romney in 2008 (however, he won't support him this time), and will rpobbably support Mourdock in 2012 xD


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 07, 2011, 04:28:04 PM
The Mourdock Facebook Page has pretty much turned into a hate-fest on Lugar, with both Mourdock and supporters participating in it. Here are some examples of what we're having to deal with:

Quote
LUGAR IS HORRIBLE. GET HIM OUT OF SENATE AND INTO ASSISTED LIVING AND BETTY FORD CENTER FOR HIS WIFE. IF MURCOCH IS LIKE ALLEN WEST THEN I WILL VOTE FOR HIM.

Quote
Kick Lugars butt all the way into retirment.

Quote
G-d I hope so. He needs to pack his bags. He has done nothing positive for Indiana.
- Someone clearly hasn't done their research ;)

Quote
If Lugar was honest he would b a democrat. I'm proud to support ur run for the Senate Treasurer Mourdock. Keep up the fight for freedom!

Quote
Lugar is so old and senile that he has forgotten he is a Republican. IMO anybody claiming to be a Republican that supports Lugar is a RINO.
- Apparently I'm a RINO :P

Someone actually disagreed once with a Mourdock statement and was called a fool and an idiot.

All of these were just from the past few days. There are many more stashed away.

In closing, Richard Mourdock has also created a couple ad's, all of the recent ones attacking Lugar. Here is the most offensive and disgusting one (IMO):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWjnHUw-shE&feature=player_embedded


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: CatoMinor on August 07, 2011, 08:51:36 PM
Lol. Mourdock gets an A for creativity in that ad :D


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: redcommander on August 07, 2011, 09:47:55 PM
Lugar needs to go down. He has been in Senate way to long, and Indiana needs a change with Mourdock.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 07, 2011, 10:03:44 PM
Lugar needs to go down. He has been in Senate way to long, and Indiana needs a change with Mourdock.
Typical response I've been seeing. Who cares who is opponent is? Who cares if Mourdock has poor character and would be an uncompromisable Senator who'd bring absolutely nothing to the table? Let's just get that ole' fart out of there! I think it's telling of a person when they run a downright hateful, negative campaign from the very get-go. I can't even imagine how bad he and his supporters are going to get next Spring.

One thing I can already see - this campaign has already turned into a hatefest on Lugar, which seems to be what Mourdock wants. Mourdock Campaign Strategy: Get as many people as possible to completely despise Lugar in hope's they'll vote for whoever else is on the ballot.

My only wish is that Mourdock focuses his campaign on the issues and what he stands for, not everything he thinks Lugar has done wrong. I would have actually been somewhat tempted to vote for him if he had done that from the start.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: I AM REPUBLICAN on August 07, 2011, 10:16:35 PM
Lugar needs to go down. He has been in Senate way to long, and Indiana needs a change with Mourdock.
Typical response I've been seeing. Who cares who is opponent is? Who cares if Mourdock has poor character and would be an uncompromisable Senator who'd bring absolutely nothing to the table? Let's just get that ole' fart out of there! I think it's telling of a person when they run a downright hateful, negative campaign from the very get-go. I can't even imagine how bad he and his supporters are going to get next Spring.

One thing I can already see - this campaign has already turned into a hatefest on Lugar, which seems to be what Mourdock wants. Mourdock Campaign Strategy: Get as many people as possible to completely despise Lugar in hope's they'll vote for whoever else is on the ballot.

My only wish is that Mourdock focuses his campaign on the issues and what he stands for, not everything he thinks Lugar has done wrong. I would have actually been somewhat tempted to vote for him if he had done that from the start.

You're saying that you are not a Murdock supporter? (If I'm reading your post correctly). I think Lugar is a RINO and needs to go NOW. Check his ACU rating and I'm sure it will be terrible (under 80%). Go Mourdock!


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 07, 2011, 11:06:30 PM
Lugar needs to go down. He has been in Senate way to long, and Indiana needs a change with Mourdock.
Typical response I've been seeing. Who cares who is opponent is? Who cares if Mourdock has poor character and would be an uncompromisable Senator who'd bring absolutely nothing to the table? Let's just get that ole' fart out of there! I think it's telling of a person when they run a downright hateful, negative campaign from the very get-go. I can't even imagine how bad he and his supporters are going to get next Spring.

One thing I can already see - this campaign has already turned into a hatefest on Lugar, which seems to be what Mourdock wants. Mourdock Campaign Strategy: Get as many people as possible to completely despise Lugar in hope's they'll vote for whoever else is on the ballot.

My only wish is that Mourdock focuses his campaign on the issues and what he stands for, not everything he thinks Lugar has done wrong. I would have actually been somewhat tempted to vote for him if he had done that from the start.

You're saying that you are not a Murdock supporter? (If I'm reading your post correctly). I think Lugar is a RINO and needs to go NOW. Check his ACU rating and I'm sure it will be terrible (under 80%). Go Mourdock!
That's exactly what I've been saying for months. Dick Lugar is not a liberal. He has a 71% rating from the ACU, and I believe voted with Reagan more than any other Senator in the 80's.

You probably know little about Mourdock, you just know you don't like Lugar. Further proving my point, and how Mourdock's strategy is (unfortunately) at least somewhat working.



Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: I AM REPUBLICAN on August 07, 2011, 11:10:52 PM
Lugar needs to go down. He has been in Senate way to long, and Indiana needs a change with Mourdock.
Typical response I've been seeing. Who cares who is opponent is? Who cares if Mourdock has poor character and would be an uncompromisable Senator who'd bring absolutely nothing to the table? Let's just get that ole' fart out of there! I think it's telling of a person when they run a downright hateful, negative campaign from the very get-go. I can't even imagine how bad he and his supporters are going to get next Spring.

One thing I can already see - this campaign has already turned into a hatefest on Lugar, which seems to be what Mourdock wants. Mourdock Campaign Strategy: Get as many people as possible to completely despise Lugar in hope's they'll vote for whoever else is on the ballot.

My only wish is that Mourdock focuses his campaign on the issues and what he stands for, not everything he thinks Lugar has done wrong. I would have actually been somewhat tempted to vote for him if he had done that from the start.

You're saying that you are not a Murdock supporter? (If I'm reading your post correctly). I think Lugar is a RINO and needs to go NOW. Check his ACU rating and I'm sure it will be terrible (under 80%). Go Mourdock!
That's exactly what I've been saying for months. Dick Lugar is not a liberal. He has a 71% rating from the ACU, and I believe voted with Reagan more than any other Senator in the 80's.

You probably know little about Mourdock, you just know you don't like Lugar. Further proving my point, and how Mourdock's strategy is (unfortunately) at least somewhat working.



Well, you're from Indiana, and I guess you know who you're voting for and who's in the race. I just don't understand why anyone would want to vote for an old RINO like him, and he's been in the Senate for too long and it's time to go. I respect your support of Lugar, and he has done some good things in the past, but, it's time for him to go. I'm from NJ, and you're from his home state, so, your vote and support of Lugar makes my support of Mourdock not count. 


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 07, 2011, 11:15:16 PM
Well, you're from Indiana, and I guess you know who you're voting for and who's in the race. I just don't understand why anyone would want to vote for an old RINO like him, and he's been in the Senate for too long and it's time to go. I respect your support of Lugar, and he has done some good things in the past, but, it's time for him to go. I'm from NJ, and you're from his home state, so, your vote and support of Lugar makes my support of Mourdock not count. 
I like Lugar a lot, but I was honestly hoping to see him retire. He didn't, and I think his opponent would do a much worse job in the Senate, which is why I'm supporting Lugar's reelection bid. If Stutzman had ran, I probably would have voted for him over Lugar. Same with Daniels or Skillman (though neither would ever challenge him). I'm not 100% impressed with Lugar's voting record, but I know that I probably wouldn't be 100% impressed with a Senator Mourdock voting record, either.

Hopefully Republicans will have a majority and the White House after 2012. I also have reason to believe this will be Lugar's last term, should he win in 2012.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: TJ in Oregon on August 07, 2011, 11:37:46 PM
So Lugar is a "RINO". Has he ever really cost the Republicans a vote on anything? What did he do that people want to get rid of him so badly for? Unless there's some glaring issue with him, why throw out a popular senator who could probably cruise to reelection for someone loud and controversial?


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 07, 2011, 11:43:15 PM
So Lugar is a "RINO". Has he ever really cost the Republicans a vote on anything? What did he do that people want to get rid of him so badly for? Unless there's some glaring issue with him, why throw out a popular senator who could probably cruise to reelection for someone loud and controversial?
There's this "purity test" I suppose you have to pass with flying colors. I'm sure the National GOP will want Lugar to win this; if Mourdock wins, they may have to put some money into the race. With Lugar it's a very safe seat. This situation is similar to Delaware, except Mourdock would actually have a good chance of winning in the general election.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: courts on August 08, 2011, 12:20:53 AM
So Lugar is a "RINO". Has he ever really cost the Republicans a vote on anything? What did he do that people want to get rid of him so badly for? Unless there's some glaring issue with him, why throw out a popular senator who could probably cruise to reelection for someone loud and controversial?
()


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 11, 2011, 02:54:46 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/11/richard-lugar-opponent-out-of-touch-economy-stocks_n_924091.html
Quote
Mourdock recently called either for the president to fire Geithner or the Senate to withdraw its consent for his nomination. Lugar supporters noted that the second option is not constitutional.

Willkie suggested Mourdock's idea to have the Senate un-confirm Geithner shows Mourdock is the one who's not entirely grounded in legislative reality.

"We don't play 'Model UN' with the United States economy," Willkie said.

I'd have to do some research, but it wouldn't make sense to me that "un-confirming" a nominee would be Constitutional. If that's correct, this is hilarious, considering Mourdock's been going around bragging how he'll be a strict follower of the Constitution. Can't wait to see how he spins this.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on August 11, 2011, 04:13:38 PM
The could use the impeachment process.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 17, 2011, 04:45:30 PM
http://www.kristiriskforcongress.com/index.htm

Kristi Risk has announced she'll be a candidate for the 8th Congressional District, seeking the Republican nomination. She will be challenging Congressman Larry Bucshon in the primary. Kristi narrowly lost to Larry Buchson in the 2010 primary.

I actually think Risk could actually win this - Buchson rode the wave, and because of that, he still has pretty low name recognition, and with Risk's aggressive 2010 campaign, she's probably nearly as well known in the district as he is. This will be a typical establishment vs. Tea Party battle. She's going after Buchson's vote on the debt ceiling, Afghan and Libyan wars, Patriot Act, and a couple other minor issues.

Don't ask me what I'm going to do in this race, because I don't know yet. :P Buchson's views are much more in line with mine, but I have a personal relationship with Risk that'll make it difficult for me not to support her.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 25, 2011, 02:47:17 PM
I just finished making a rather upset call to the Mourdock campaign, campaigning about the negativity, especially on Facebook, and the campaign continuing to allow hateful comments towards Lugar being posted on their wall. I said that while some Tea Party Republicans may think that behavior is okay, a majority of Republicans and Hoosiers in general want a campaign that's focused on creating jobs, not on how old Senator Lugar is. The person I was talking to seem rather young, and it was hard for me to get too worked up since he was kept saying "I understand" and "I agree". Maybe I converted him. :P

Now it's on to waiting to see if a certain hateful post that was made which I've requested multiple times by message and now by phone will be removed. If it isn't removed, I'll start making weekly calls.

:P


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Holmes on August 25, 2011, 05:21:13 PM
Likely not. The person on the phone probably didn't care about you or Mourdock and just wanted the job.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 25, 2011, 09:25:21 PM
Likely not. The person on the phone probably didn't care about you or Mourdock and just wanted the job.
We'll see - I've abstained from ever debating someone on the Mourdock page, but I just did - some loser tried to say Lugar is never visiting Hoosiers and is only doing it now because an election's coming up. I can't even begin to describe how big of a lie that is. :P

The post I'm waiting for them to delete is still up. Maybe I'll start with daily calls. :) :)


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 26, 2011, 10:56:33 PM
In a "discussion" with someone now on Mourdock's page over everything in general. They tried to say Lugar is depending on out of state groups to back him, and I pointed out nearly 90% of Lugar contributions in the last quarter came from Hoosiers.

His response "Last Quarter..." At first, I thought he was being a smartie or something, but then I realized he had no clue what I was talking about.

Ironic, because normally around this time in a "discussion" I'm dismissed as being too young to know what I'm talking about. ;)


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on January 08, 2012, 02:13:06 PM
The Indianapolis Star has released several articles about Mourdock.

In December, Mourdock had a 100-donor challenge, and he failed to get even 100 people to donate to his campaign. Brian Howey of the Star called him out for it. Mourdock then retaliated that it was still success as they raised money, and now Mourdock supporter's are attacking Howey and calling him a liar. Talk about arrogance/ignorance.

Also, in the past year, Mourdock only attended approximately 34% of meetings he was supposed to attend as Treasurer, compared to Lugar, who only missed 4 votes in the Senate.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 11, 2012, 04:49:27 PM
Bumping for Phil

Oh, and there's a debate tonight. Any other Hoosier's planning on watching?


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 11, 2012, 07:07:16 PM
The debate just ended. Hoping someone else watched it so I can have someone to discuss it with! :P

Saying this unbiased, I think the debate was a wash, which is good news for Lugar. I was really worried Senator Lugar would come across as, well, old, but he held his own, and certainly exhibited his vast knowledge when the debate turned to foreign policy.

Tonight was Mourdock's big chance to really turn this race in his favor, and I don't think he did that. The two agreed all too often, which actually surprised me, as I thought Mourdock would go after Lugar more than he did. A poll done on one of the site's that showed the debate shows 52% saying Lugar won while 48% saying Mourdock.

IMHO, Lugar is on track to winning the May 8th primary, but things can still change.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 12, 2012, 01:02:59 PM
http://www.indystar.com/article/20120411/NEWS05/120411037/Lugar-Mourdock-leave-debate-without-bruises-advantage?odyssey=tab%7Ctopnews%7Ctext%7CNews

Quote
During the one-hour debate — much of it devoted to Lugar’s strong suit of foreign policy — he showed that at 80 he is a sharp lawmaker with broad experience of the world and national issues.

And Mourdock, a two-term state official, showed that he could hold his own against Lugar’s expertise and challenge him without ever appearing disrespectful of his fellow Republican.


...

Completely agree.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 15, 2012, 04:33:10 PM
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/04/american-action-network-up-with-massive-buy-behind-120394.html

Quote
“Indiana Republicans have yet to meet the real Richard Murdock, but they soon will. Richard Mourdock has a troubling record, from repeatedly missing official meetings to repeatedly accepting illegal tax breaks to making bad junk bond bets with Hoosiers’ pensions," American Action Network communications director Dan Conston said in a statement. "Sen. Dick Lugar is the right conservative for Indiana – and he will win this November. We’re investing in this race now because a Mourdock primary victory would only embolden Harry Reid and his liberal allies this November.” 


American Action Network will be spending almost $600,000 on anti-Mourdock ads in Indiana. That's probably not much less than the total amount of funds Mourdock raised in 2011. Good thing I don't watch local stations too often. ;)

Lugar's camp seems to be focusing a lot more on Mourdock's record as Treasurer, which honestly hasn't been too great. While there's been nothing from the campaign, there's been more discussion on the Twitter and blogging world regarding statement's Mourdock has made regarding his "not attending" (putting it politely) the Vietnam war.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Lincoln Republican on April 15, 2012, 05:55:22 PM
80  years old.

Time for new blood.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 15, 2012, 06:59:22 PM
You don't want President Romney to have to deal with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, do you?


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: redcommander on April 16, 2012, 09:49:12 PM
You don't want President Romney to have to deal with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, do you?

He's not going to. If Indiana is remotely close on election night, Obama will have already won reelection. There's no way is Romney runs a remotely decent campaign that Joe Donnelly is going to be elected senator.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 16, 2012, 10:36:26 PM
You don't want President Romney to have to deal with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, do you?

He's not going to. If Indiana is remotely close on election night, Obama will have already won reelection. There's no way is Romney runs a remotely decent campaign that Joe Donnelly is going to be elected senator.

What? Presidential race is often not tied with Senatorial races. See Maine 2008. Or Vermont in the Gubernatorial race.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on April 17, 2012, 03:21:29 PM
Governors should never be compared to Senate and Presidential races.


On the flip side, Senate races often do follow the Presidential results in this partisan era. There are exceptions, like a Collins or yes Lugar who could win by a wide margin while the Democrats take the state. That "endeered incumbency" effect only happens to incumbents.

There is also a populist challenger/outsider effect that tends to benefit certain Democrats running for open seats against marginal/weak Republicans. A good example of this would be Mark Warner in Virginia.  

If Mourdock nationalizes the race, he should be fine provided Obama doesn't win the state.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 17, 2012, 03:41:32 PM
If Mourdock nationalizes the race, he should be fine provided Obama doesn't win the state.
Still, I doubt that. The Tea Party supports Mourdock, but just about everyone else is wary of him. It's difficult to win any election if you don't have your party's establishment backing you 100%. Donnelly also isn't a far-left liberal, so he may be able to somewhat distance himself from Obama. I think he did that in his successful reelection in 2010.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 18, 2012, 05:33:50 PM
http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/decb5e5034ee4b9a9ac20d63139c6438/IN--Indiana-Senate-Investigation/

Quote
INDIANAPOLIS — Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock's campaign has had its access to a critical campaign tool revoked by the Indiana Republican Party.

Mourdock campaign manager Jim Holden wrote in a March 14 email obtained by the Associated Press that Mourdock staffers should "start pillaging email addresses" from a voter database used by all Indiana Republicans.

Quote
    Mourdock campaign manager Jim Holden wrote in a March 14 email obtained by the Associated Press that Mourdock staffers should "start pillaging email addresses" from a voter database used by all Indiana Republicans.

A Republican familiar with the problem says the Mourdock campaign's access to the database was revoked shortly after the email was discovered. The source spoke on condition of anonymity because the investigation is ongoing.

A Mourdock campaign spokesman calls the email a "joke" taken out of context.

Indiana Republican Party leaders met Wednesday to discuss how to handle the problem.

Party chairman Eric Holcomb is declining comment. He says he wants to keep the discussion in-house.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on April 18, 2012, 09:40:41 PM
Tmfth, you got Daniels on your side. Daniels should endorse Ron Paul as he's much closer in views than Mitt. I'm not surprised he endorsed Lugar. Being a Lugar protage and all.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Sam Spade on April 18, 2012, 09:50:45 PM
Sure, Lugar can't lose whereas Mourdock can.  But the seat is unlikely to flip regardless, and it has not yet been proven that Donnelly is a top-tier candidate.  Sure, he held on in 2010, but he was running against a complete nut.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on April 19, 2012, 01:12:59 AM
Sure, Lugar can't lose whereas Mourdock can.  But the seat is unlikely to flip regardless, and it has not yet been proven that Donnelly is a top-tier candidate.  Sure, he held on in 2010, but he was running against a complete nut.

I think that, other than Evan Bayh, Donnelly was the Democrat's best candidate.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Sam Spade on April 19, 2012, 12:41:59 PM
Sure, Lugar can't lose whereas Mourdock can.  But the seat is unlikely to flip regardless, and it has not yet been proven that Donnelly is a top-tier candidate.  Sure, he held on in 2010, but he was running against a complete nut.

I think that, other than Evan Bayh, Donnelly was the Democrat's best candidate.

I think there are a couple of more proven candidates than Donnelly, but I doubt they would have run, and neither would have Evan Bayh.  So, we basically agree.  But that does not necessarily mean Donnelly is a top-tier candidate - there is a distinction.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on April 21, 2012, 04:00:04 PM
Sure, Lugar can't lose whereas Mourdock can.  But the seat is unlikely to flip regardless, and it has not yet been proven that Donnelly is a top-tier candidate.  Sure, he held on in 2010, but he was running against a complete nut.

Jacki Walorski is not a nut.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 23, 2012, 11:34:15 AM
Sure, Lugar can't lose whereas Mourdock can.  But the seat is unlikely to flip regardless, and it has not yet been proven that Donnelly is a top-tier candidate.  Sure, he held on in 2010, but he was running against a complete nut.

Jacki Walorski is not a nut.
Yeah - I'm fairly confident that she will win the 2nd this year. She would probably even beat Donnelly with the new boundaries.

Mourdock has been receiving a lot of negative press here for his incident with the state's email database. Lugar's really starting to hit him on the airwaves, also.

If Mourdock loses, he can thank his manager, Holden (Eric, maybe is the first name). He's completely botched the campaign, getting in a physical shove match last year, focusing on tea party groups rather than counties, scheduling conflicts, etc. Lugar's going to win this because his campaign is very organized at every level.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 27, 2012, 03:53:40 PM
Palin endorses Mourdock. I think this race will, as is often the case, come down to who turns out to vote.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/75694.html


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: redcommander on April 28, 2012, 02:09:12 AM
Palin endorses Mourdock. I think this race will, as is often the case, come down to who turns out to vote.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/75694.html

I'm glad that Palin actually endorsed him. Perhaps this will be enough to solidify momentum. Maybe she and Mourdock could do a couple of rallies together to get publicity?


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 28, 2012, 02:11:01 PM
A pro-Lugar PAC is pulling out. Too bad Indiana law doesn't allow for automated polling, otherwise PPP could tell us what's going on. McCain did a pro-Lugar ad, Citizens United a pro-Mourdock one.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/04/mccain-cuts-radio-ad-for-lugar-121885.html

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/04/citizens-united-to-go-on-air-for-mourdock-121903.html

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/04/american-action-network-pulls-out-of-lugar-race-121898.html


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on April 28, 2012, 04:48:33 PM
This may have already been discussed, but how's the Democratic primary in district 9 looking? What would General Jonathan George's chances be if he gets to the general election?


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 28, 2012, 05:24:06 PM
This may have already been discussed, but how's the Democratic primary in district 9 looking? What would General Jonathan George's chances be if he gets to the general election?
The district is more conservative, but there's been some grumblings about Youngs job performance. Definatly will be under 10 points, but not sure if Dems can win.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 03, 2012, 11:39:05 PM
Last poll had Lugar up 44-42. I want to say it was Magellan, but I can't recall for sure...

How the race is breaking down here:

Mourdock - Receiving momentum for the Palin and Bachmann endorsements as in media coverage. On the flip side, anyone who likes them probably already supported Mourdock, and this could potentially turn undecided voters who are more mainstream away from his campaign.

Lugar - Has received a flood of newspaper endorsements and his supporters are doing great work (myself included) at getting editorials in the paper. It's about impossible to pick up a paper in this state and not see a positive article on Senator Lugar.

Advertising-wise, Lugar has an edge, which is to be expected. Was on the ground down in Southern Indiana doing disaster relief and saw more Mourdock signs down there, which is to be expected.

Momentum isn't breaking at the last moment for either, and I doubt it will. It'll largely be a turnout competition, and to be honest, while his supporters aren't as energetic, Lugar has a better organization in-state. There will be poll workers at practically every precinct in my county for Lugar...not the case for Mourdock, or at least as of this evening.

I'm holding off on a prediction - I feel slightly sick to my stomach, which has me worried Mourdock may pull off an upset. Gotta remember - many Hoosiers have a very positive view of Lugar, and he should receive a decent chunk of the vote from voters who have no clue who to vote for but recognize his name, as well as Independents and Democrats. There is no "Democrats for Mourdock" drive going here to speak of.

LUGAR 2012!


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on May 04, 2012, 07:29:05 AM
Last poll had Lugar up 44-42. I want to say it was Magellan, but I can't recall for sure...

How the race is breaking down here:

Mourdock - Receiving momentum for the Palin and Bachmann endorsements as in media coverage. On the flip side, anyone who likes them probably already supported Mourdock, and this could potentially turn undecided voters who are more mainstream away from his campaign.

Lugar - Has received a flood of newspaper endorsements and his supporters are doing great work (myself included) at getting editorials in the paper. It's about impossible to pick up a paper in this state and not see a positive article on Senator Lugar.

Advertising-wise, Lugar has an edge, which is to be expected. Was on the ground down in Southern Indiana doing disaster relief and saw more Mourdock signs down there, which is to be expected.

Momentum isn't breaking at the last moment for either, and I doubt it will. It'll largely be a turnout competition, and to be honest, while his supporters aren't as energetic, Lugar has a better organization in-state. There will be poll workers at practically every precinct in my county for Lugar...not the case for Mourdock, or at least as of this evening.

I'm holding off on a prediction - I feel slightly sick to my stomach, which has me worried Mourdock may pull off an upset. Gotta remember - many Hoosiers have a very positive view of Lugar, and he should receive a decent chunk of the vote from voters who have no clue who to vote for but recognize his name, as well as Independents and Democrats. There is no "Democrats for Mourdock" drive going here to speak of.

LUGAR 2012!

Even though I'd love to see a Democrat in this seat (and I do think Donnelly COULD beat Mourdock, though it would be a tough battle), I honestly think the country is better served by having more Republicans in Congress who don't see the anyone with different political views as "the enemy."  Although I disagree with many of his positions, Lugar is one of the better members of the current Republican Senate caucus (not saying much, but still, he's always seemed like a decent enough guy).  So I hope Lugar wins the primary, even though there's no way Donnelly can beat him.  Unfortunately, don't think there is much of a chance of Lugar winning and could easily see him losing by a larger than expected margin.  Mourdock has the momentum in the primary, as best as I can tell.  If Mourdock wins the primary though, then Donnelly 2012!


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: smoltchanov on May 04, 2012, 08:44:38 AM

Even though I'd love to see a Democrat in this seat (and I do think Donnelly COULD beat Mourdock, though it would be a tough battle), I honestly think the country is better served by having more Republicans in Congress who don't see the anyone with different political views as "the enemy."  Although I disagree with many of his positions, Lugar is one of the better members of the current Republican Senate caucus (not saying much, but still, he's always seemed like a decent enough guy).  So I hope Lugar wins the primary, even though there's no way Donnelly can beat him.  Unfortunately, don't think there is much of a chance of Lugar winning and could easily see him losing by a larger than expected margin.  Mourdock has the momentum in the primary, as best as I can tell.  If Mourdock wins the primary though, then Donnelly 2012!

+1000!


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Tender Branson on May 04, 2012, 10:03:18 AM
Lugar apparently in deep sh*t:

Quote
INDIANAPOLIS - U.S. Sen. Richard G. Lugar's iconic career of elected public service appears to be in great jeopardy. A Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll conducted Monday and Tuesday shows that Lugar is trailing Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock 48-38% in Indiana's Republican Senate primary. That head-to-head figure includes so-called "leaners," who could conceivably change their minds in the final 72 hours of the campaign. Without the leans, Mourdock still leads 43-35%.

Based on this survey data, Howey Politics Indiana is moving the Senate race into a "Likely Mourdock" category. It had been "Leans Lugar" until the March 26-28 Howey/DePauw survey had Lugar leading Mourdock 42-35%, at which time HPI moved the Senate race into "Tossup."

The survey, conducted by Republican pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research and Democratic pollster Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, is based on 700 likely voters with a +/- margin of error at 3.7%. The sample was made up of 76% Republicans, 14% independent, 8% independent/lean Republican, 1% lean Democrat and 1% independent/lean Democrat. Survey top lines will be posted under the "Howey/DePauw Poll" tab at www.howeypolitics.com.

http://howeypolitics.com


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on May 04, 2012, 12:19:00 PM
Silent Joe will lose regardless of who he faces. Only Bayh would have a chance of beating either one. The Dem bench is rather sad around here.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 04, 2012, 03:23:16 PM
Thanks to a photo posted on Tm's Facebook, I was able to get a chuckle at Lugar's expense: a recent mailer of his uses the slogan "Serious leadership for serious times"...with a picture of an old man laughing with Lugar. Uh...


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 04, 2012, 09:46:47 PM
Silent Joe will lose regardless of who he faces. Only Bayh would have a chance of beating either one. The Dem bench is rather sad around here.
Don't be so sure - Mourdock is unappealing to moderate voters and will also struggle to gain financial support from the establishment. There is another difference - with Lugar, you have a safe race, and you can invest in other states, such as Ohio and Missouri. With Mourdock, money will have to be spent to defend this seat, money that could be going to defeat liberal Democrats in other races.

Tuesday will be a test to see just how interested Republicans are in taking back the Senate.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 04, 2012, 10:19:02 PM
Santorum endorses Mourdock. Maybe I should have a horse in this one... :P


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 04, 2012, 10:19:44 PM
In the past week, Mourdock has received more out-of-state support, this time from Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, and now Rick Santorum. There's some irony here - Richard Mourdock is claiming that Lugar isn't a true Hoosier and doesn't have true Hoosier values, yet all of the endorsements he is touting are from out-of-state politicians, while the endorsements that Dick Lugar are touting (mainly Daniels and Skillman, as well as the many mayors) are in-state. 


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Niemeyerite on May 05, 2012, 05:41:01 AM
If Mourdock wins, who will you support in the GE, tmth?


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: nkpatel1279 on May 05, 2012, 08:26:21 AM
Who is Dan Quayle endorsing?


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 05, 2012, 08:29:43 AM

J. Danforth Quayle (R-IN) is too concerned with life in Arizona.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 05, 2012, 08:41:28 AM
If Mourdock wins, who will you support in the GE, tmth?
Undecided. I will most likely just write-in Lugar, as I don't like Donnelly or Mourdock. Gun to my head, I'd probably vote for Donnelly.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: bgwah on May 06, 2012, 02:04:02 PM
I'm sure this has already been asked somewhere, but what are the laws in Indiana with regards to running as an independent or write-in? Any chance Lugar goes that route?


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 06, 2012, 02:07:49 PM
I'm sure this has already been asked somewhere, but what the laws in Indiana with regards to running as an independent or write-in? Any chance Lugar goes that route?

Indiana has a sore loser law, so no.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 06, 2012, 02:47:45 PM
I'm sure this has already been asked somewhere, but what are the laws in Indiana with regards to running as an independent or write-in? Any chance Lugar goes that route?
Unfortunately, there is a sore loser law in effect. That won't stop me from writing him in if he happens to lose in the primary.

If there wasn't, I seriously believe Lugar could win as a write-in, and would probably be favored if he had ran as an Independent.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on May 06, 2012, 02:58:56 PM
If Lugar were able to run as an Indie it would make things very interesting. I'm kinda torn about sore loser laws.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Indy Texas on May 06, 2012, 03:24:24 PM
I'm sure this has already been asked somewhere, but what are the laws in Indiana with regards to running as an independent or write-in? Any chance Lugar goes that route?
Unfortunately, there is a sore loser law in effect. That won't stop me from writing him in if he happens to lose in the primary.

If there wasn't, I seriously believe Lugar could win as a write-in, and would probably be favored if he had ran as an Independent.

So, if a plurality of Indianans decided to write in Lugar's name, he couldn't be declared the winner?


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 06, 2012, 03:31:19 PM
I'm sure this has already been asked somewhere, but what are the laws in Indiana with regards to running as an independent or write-in? Any chance Lugar goes that route?
Unfortunately, there is a sore loser law in effect. That won't stop me from writing him in if he happens to lose in the primary.

If there wasn't, I seriously believe Lugar could win as a write-in, and would probably be favored if he had ran as an Independent.

So, if a plurality of Indianans decided to write in Lugar's name, he couldn't be declared the winner?

Hmm, regardless, there's no way this could happen, as Lugar will not accept write-in votes.

Since he has so much respect for this state and the GOP, I'm 90% certain he'd endorse Mourdock either Tuesday night or shortly afterwards, and will do what he can to help Mourdock win in the General Election. In comparison, Mourdock has stated he may not endorse Lugar if Lugar wins the primary. Just goes to show you which candidate is a class act and which isn't.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 07:19:00 PM
Herman Cain is claiming Mourdock supports 9-9-9... is that true?


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on May 07, 2012, 12:29:20 AM
Seems like there might be quite a few Obama-Lugar voters and a number of Romney-Donnelly voters.  Obama-Murdock voters will be a null set.   Romney will have to win big in Indiana for Murdock to win.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 07, 2012, 04:39:38 PM
Things are getting crazy.

I still think Lugar has a shot tomorrow, regardless of what the most recent poll says. Most other polls have shown Lugar narrowly leading or tied with Mourdock, and the recent Lugar internal had him ahead.

I know, generally undecideds break against the incumbent. I think this race might be slightly different, however, as Mourdock still doesn't have too high of name recognition and Lugar is see favorably still by a lot of voters. Lugar should also be thankful that there are few competitive Democratic primaries across the state (none statewide), as that could lead to an abnormally high amount of Democrats voting in the GOP primary. Also, most of the undecided voters were women, which have been favoring Lugar throughout the primary.

Regarding Congressional races, things are pretty interesting. Starting next year, Marlin Stutzman will be the senior Republican congressman from Indiana, despite only winning in 2010. I think Lugar should have made the seniority argument more; Republicans have a good shot at winning both Senate and House, yet the ability to direct more funds here will be limited, as we have one of the youngest groups of Republican lawmakers out there. Dan Coats would be our only hope, which doesn't say much.

Honestly can't give you all too much information on any races except the 8th and 9th. Apparently a poll came out today by GOP congressional leaders in the 8th that has Tea Party challenger Kristi Risk up 8 on Rep. Buchson. Buchson probably hasn't campaigned as much as he should have, but I expect him to hang on. It'll be closer than it should be though for an incumbent. He's just not a good campaigner, point blank.

Todd Young is running unopposed in the 9th for GOP. On Democratic side, there are 5 candidates I believe. The race is completely wide open, and there is no "establishment" pick. I honestly am not sure who the nominee will be. If I had to bet, I'd bet on John George, the formal Army general. Shelli Yoder has picked up some nice endorsements, specifically the mayor of Bloomington. She's also really hot (;)), however, got in the race at the last second.

I stand by my belief the Indiana House delegation will go 7-2 in favor of Republicans this fall.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on May 07, 2012, 05:05:49 PM
The Fix has a pretty good article (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/dick-lugar-and-the-biggest-primary-upsets-in-senate-history/2012/05/07/gIQAk0ea8T_blog.html) comparing a potential Lugar loss to other historical Senate primary upsets.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 07, 2012, 05:58:31 PM
CNN had a report from Dana Bash about a senior Indiana Republican saying he's seen Lugar's internal- "he will lose, and it won't be close." Politico reported something similar over the weekend. I'd say between 10-13 myself.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Torie on May 07, 2012, 07:43:14 PM
I'm sure this has already been asked somewhere, but what are the laws in Indiana with regards to running as an independent or write-in? Any chance Lugar goes that route?
Unfortunately, there is a sore loser law in effect. That won't stop me from writing him in if he happens to lose in the primary.

If there wasn't, I seriously believe Lugar could win as a write-in, and would probably be favored if he had ran as an Independent.

It is interesting you have such disdain for Mourdock for the reasons you described elsewhere, while on the other hand the National Review in an editorial (http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/04/national-review-for-mourdock-120630.html) endorsing him, characterizes him as "low key" and "capable, competent conservative."  With that trio of ecomimums attending the word "conservative," while Mourdock may be too rigid as a "conservative" for RINO types like me (it depends), it hardly renders him an object of derision and disdain.

You clearly have a different view of the appropriateness of such ecomimums. Did something in particular about him cause you to cast the Mourdock man into Mordor Tmthforu94?

Anyway, the stench of death about Lugar most noisome haunts my mind's eye, and I cannot cast it away. I see his body on the floor when the fat lady sings.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on May 07, 2012, 09:16:08 PM
Lugar has an impressive and generally sensible record when it comes to foreign policy, and he's a very valuable player in the Senate for it.  I've always admired him on this and a host of other things and I'd definitely vote for him if I could. However, he can't stay there in the Senate forever, and it's true he does come across as old and a bit too establishment at this point.  I think the residence question might be what's hurt him the most.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 07, 2012, 09:21:19 PM
Even Lugar's team has conceded that residency became an issue- but more as a symbol than the legalities.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 07, 2012, 09:30:57 PM
Pretty much all of my issues with Mourdock comes with how he handled himself throughout this campaign. From the very start he's ran a very negative, below the belt campaign, with every TV ad coming from his campaign being an attack on Lugar. I think he has completely mischaracterized Lugar as some crooked Washington insider who doesn't give a lick about Hoosier values, which is a complete fabrication, might I add. This entire election has been a referendum on Dick Lugar rather than on policy and substantial discussion on who would be best to represent Indiana in the Senate. Saying this as unbiased as possible, the Lugar campaign has come out with more idea's and solution's than the Mourdock campaign has. That's not really disputable. And what Mourdock did come out with, his budget plan, was attacked from all sides and was simply poorly thought out.

All we can really do at this point is hope that Hoosiers remember all Senator Lugar has done for this state tomorrow when they head to the polls. Lugar has done very well at his job; Mourdock hasn't.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 07, 2012, 09:34:16 PM
Everyone has noticed how Lugar went on an all out attack on Mourdock this entire campaign but tm continues to live in his little dream world, bitching about Mourdock being negative while totally ignoring Lugar's attacks. I hope it's a landslide tomorrow.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 07, 2012, 09:49:07 PM
It's got to be pretty rare for the senior member of the party to be facing such a serious primary challenger. Of course fellow 6-termer Hatch (who is less senior because Utah had fewer people) isn't safe either.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 07, 2012, 09:56:34 PM
The closest would probably be Fulbright losing 2-1 to Bumpers in 1974.



Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Torie on May 07, 2012, 10:03:50 PM
Bennett was bagged in Utah, and Specter just fled the scene futilely seeking to evade that certain final exit that was his ineluctable fate.  How many moderates are left to bag anyway? I mean now they are eating their own when they go after Hatch.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 07, 2012, 10:18:20 PM
Bennett was bagged in Utah, and Specter just fled the scene futilely seeking to evade that certain final exit that was his ineluctable fate.  How many moderates are left to bag anyway? I mean now they are eating their own when they go after Hatch.

The only 4 Republicans that aren't completely right-wing are the Maine Senators (one of whom is retiring), Murkowski (she's moved a bit to the left after she got elected as an Independent), and Scott Brown (who is still crazy right-wing for Massachusetts).


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: smoltchanov on May 08, 2012, 03:34:54 AM
Bennett was bagged in Utah, and Specter just fled the scene futilely seeking to evade that certain final exit that was his ineluctable fate.  How many moderates are left to bag anyway? I mean now they are eating their own when they go after Hatch.

The only 4 Republicans that aren't completely right-wing are the Maine Senators (one of whom is retiring), Murkowski (she's moved a bit to the left after she got elected as an Independent), and Scott Brown (who is still crazy right-wing for Massachusetts).

And how many Democrats, which are not left-wing? Slightly more, i agree, but not by very much


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 08, 2012, 05:23:24 AM
Bennett was bagged in Utah, and Specter just fled the scene futilely seeking to evade that certain final exit that was his ineluctable fate.  How many moderates are left to bag anyway? I mean now they are eating their own when they go after Hatch.

The only 4 Republicans that aren't completely right-wing are the Maine Senators (one of whom is retiring), Murkowski (she's moved a bit to the left after she got elected as an Independent), and Scott Brown (who is still crazy right-wing for Massachusetts).

And how many Democrats, which are not left-wing? Slightly more, i agree, but not by very much

Warner, Webb, Landrieu, Pryor, Ben Nelson, Bill Nelson, Tester, Baucus, Feinstein, Casey, Hagan, Reid, Wyden, Lieberman, Blumenthal, McCaskill, Menendez, Conrad, Johnson, Manchin and Rockefeller.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: smoltchanov on May 08, 2012, 06:06:59 AM
[
Warner, Webb, Landrieu, Pryor, Ben Nelson, Bill Nelson, Tester, Baucus, Feinstein, Casey, Hagan, Reid, Wyden, Lieberman, Blumenthal, McCaskill, Menendez, Conrad, Johnson, Manchin and Rockefeller.

Tester, Feinstein, Wyden, Blumenthal, Menendez and Rockefeller (at least) are "pure liberals" for my tastes))))


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 09, 2012, 09:24:43 PM
I have updated the first page with the official candidates in each race, as well as list my rating for each district. Will obviously change as the campaigns progress.



Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 10, 2012, 10:51:18 PM
Well, I've done some thinking in this race, as well as research. At the end of the day, I'm willing to support the candidate I believe will best represent Hoosier interests in the Senate, even if they spent the past year attacking my favorite Senator over and over again.

Thankfully, the candidate I'm leaning towards didn't do that. The more I'm learning about Joe Donnelly, specifically his strong pro-gun and pro-life stances, the more I like about him. I truly believe he'd do a better job at representing Hoosier interests, while I think Mourdock would simply be a party-line, Tea Party Republican. I mean, the guy thinks Social Security and Medicare are unconstitutional, and believes bi-partisanship has ruined this country.

The only thing stopping me is his support for Obama and the fact him winning would probably give Harry Reid the Senate.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on May 10, 2012, 11:26:12 PM
Donnelly does look good on paper with the Pro-Life position and the strength on immigration. But the problem is what happened with Stupak and the Health Care Law. If Pelosi, or in this case Reid, needs his vote for for Amnesty, Cap and Trade, Card Check or some other disastrous policy, it will materialize. Donnelly himself was one of Stupak's gang and one of the few who voted aye on Obamacare and still managed to survive 2010. As a Republican held seat in a solidly Bush 2004 state, ceding it to such an unrealiable choice is a mistake.

Also contrary to the Reuters article about how losing Lugar from the ballot hurts Romney, I would disagree. If anything, Lugars impact would have been the same as that of Specter in 2004 with a lot of Obama/Lugar voters. On the other hand, Mourdock might be able to energize conservatives more in the state. One reason I forgot to mention last year in this thread as to a reason why one would be a Romney/Mourdock supporter.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 11, 2012, 07:42:37 AM
Oh, people were using the "Lugar will help Romney across the finish line" nonsense? Haha. Remember when Specter was going to win PA for Bush? As NC Yank mentioned, voters just - get ready for a shocker - split their ticket. And don't forget the infamous "Kerry-Specter for Working Families" signs.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on May 12, 2012, 11:32:55 PM
http://insupportofsanity.blogspot.com/2012/05/richard-mourdock-responds-to-dick-lugar.html?spref=tw&m=1

"Well, what I've said is that I certainly think bipartisanship ought to consist of Democrats coming to the Republican point of view." - Richard Mourdock

...What's unfortunate - he's being completely serious. With this mentality, I'm not sure how he's going to get conservative Democrats or Independents to vote for him. All Donnelly needs is the cash to expose this.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on May 21, 2012, 12:07:01 PM
But most partisan Democrats view bipartisanship means conservatives come over to their view.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 25, 2012, 05:10:52 PM
'Looks like Donnelly is trying to tie himself to Lugar (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7Rq_x--_tM) vis-a-vis the auto bailout.

'Should help him make inroads with Independents and moderate Republicans.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 15, 2012, 06:32:30 PM
They're debating now.

Ugh.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 15, 2012, 10:41:26 PM
A basic summary of the debate:
- Joe Donnelly claimed he was bi-partisan, but was attacked for supporting Obamacare
- Richard Mourdock was attacked for being a "Tea Party partisan" or something, and completely denied it.
- Mourdock spent about 2 minutes trying to convince Hoosiers that we should abolish the Department of Education.
- Horning, the Libertarian, said almost the same thing for every answer, just focusing on how the two-party state has ruined this country and the founding fathers didn't want this.

Overall, this debate did absolutely nothing to change the dynamics of the race. If anything "won", it'd be Horning, as he got free press and didn't come off as a complete idiot.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 27, 2012, 03:26:42 PM
Got to speak briefly with Dr. Bucshon today - his campaign is pretty confident of victory, based on their internals, but aren't taking it for granted. I've moved my district from Lean Republican to Likely Republican.

Also, to spur activity in this thread since I feel like I'm talking to a mirror, I figured I should announce it...I voted for Richard Mourdock.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Vosem on October 27, 2012, 03:35:58 PM

If you voted early, I suppose you have an excuse, but otherwise...for shame.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on October 27, 2012, 03:51:42 PM

Also, to spur activity in this thread since I feel like I'm talking to a mirror, I figured I should announce it...I voted for Richard Mourdock.

I need to pick up on the NC thread as well.

Eh, I won't say I'm not disappointed, but it was your choice, not mine.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on October 27, 2012, 04:22:43 PM

Also, to spur activity in this thread since I feel like I'm talking to a mirror, I figured I should announce it...I voted for Richard Mourdock.

I need to pick up on the NC thread as well.

Eh, I won't say I'm not disappointed, but it was your choice, not mine.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 27, 2012, 06:29:55 PM
I did vote early. I'll leave it at that. ;)


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: BM on October 27, 2012, 06:44:48 PM
Finally you've given up the pretense of being a moderate.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 27, 2012, 07:57:55 PM
Finally you've given up the pretense of being a moderate.

Indeed. How could you? Mourdock doesn't deserve your vote. Richard Lugar is upset.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on October 27, 2012, 08:21:47 PM
I think tmth is 'moderate' Republican in the same sense that I'm a moderate Democrat. Yes, we're to the center relative our parties, but when push comes to shove, we'll support our respective parties' candidates the vast majority of the time.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 27, 2012, 09:04:19 PM
Dick Lugar came out and supported Mourdock, even did an event or two with him over the summer, FWIW.

Miles is right - I'm a fairly moderate Republican, and in primaries, usually support the candidate closest to center (Which is also usually the most electable as well). Most of the time, I'll end up supporting Republicans though in the General Election.

If battle for the Senate wasn't so contested, I would have voted for Donnelly. This was more of a vote for a Senate Majority than anything.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: JoeyJoeJoe on October 28, 2012, 12:37:09 AM
Anything happening in the 5th or 6th districts?


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 28, 2012, 12:44:35 AM
Anything happening in the 5th or 6th districts?
Susan Brooks is the GOP nominee, taking on Scott Reske in the 5th district. It has an R+17 PVI, and considering Brooks has ran an organized, well-funded campaign, I expect her to easily win with over 60% of the vote.

The 6th isn't as Republican, partly because it encompasses Muncie, but R+10 anyways. Republican Luke Messer is facing off against Brad Bookout. Bookout has some well thought out idea's, and I may actually have considered voting for him in the 6th - a Democrat in the mold of Evan Bayh and Brad Ellsworth. However, the tide is completely against him, and the race hasn't received any attention. In a year like 2006, I think this race could be somewhat close (though Republicans would still be favored to win). Now, though, I expect Messer to win, probably by around a 57-40 margin.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Gass3268 on October 28, 2012, 12:50:00 AM
I know this discussion has always come up, but what makes Indiana so different then the rest of the Midwest? I mean Michigan/Minnesota are Democratic strongholds, Iowa/Wisconsin lean Democratic and Ohio is a pure toss-up, but Indiana is more similar to Kentucky then to the rest of its region. I just find it so interesting.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 28, 2012, 12:57:52 AM
I know this discussion has always come up, but what makes Indiana so different then the rest of the Midwest? I mean Michigan/Minnesota are Democratic strongholds, Iowa/Wisconsin lean Democratic and Ohio is a pure toss-up, but Indiana is more similar to Kentucky then to the rest of its region. I just find it so interesting.
I'm honestly not a great person to answer this question. I spent my early childhood years in Kansas, and now I live in Southwestern Indiana. I've only ventured to the northern part of the state a couple times, and have only been to states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio a couple of times.

Here's what I can tell you though, at least for my area. The southern half of Indiana is basically part of the South, IMHO. A more proper way to divide state lines would have been to take Illinois and Indiana and split it in half North and South, not East and West. :P You have a lot of evangelicals around here who are very socially conservative - you rarely see a pro-choice candidate, and the few that exist usually end up on the wrong side on Election Night. We make up a good chunk of the Indiana electorate, and it's something I'm not sure other Rust Belt states have.

Also, just mentioning, I've always been so confused by the term "Midwest", because it has a different meaning to everyone. I always considered the Midwest to be Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Nebraska, etc., but a lot of other people seem to think of it as this area. Hmm...


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: JoeyJoeJoe on October 28, 2012, 10:17:03 AM
Thanks for the response.  I thought that since Dems had gotten a seious recruit in the 5th, they might have at least tried there a little bit.  I hadn't heard about either race since the primary, so I was wondering.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: bore on October 28, 2012, 02:55:54 PM
I know this discussion has always come up, but what makes Indiana so different then the rest of the Midwest? I mean Michigan/Minnesota are Democratic strongholds, Iowa/Wisconsin lean Democratic and Ohio is a pure toss-up, but Indiana is more similar to Kentucky then to the rest of its region. I just find it so interesting.

The other states either have larger cities and/or toss up d leaning rural areas. Indiana doesn't have a Detroit or an iron range, so there is not enough to cancel out the super republican suburbs and rural areas.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 30, 2012, 01:38:06 PM
http://www.courierpress.com/news/2012/oct/30/no-headline---8thdistrict/

Congressman Larry Buchson leads former State Representative Dave Crooks by a 51-35 margin. This was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the Buchson campaign. I can say that yesterday, I spoke with someone high up in the Bucshon campaign, and he said that for polling, they based it on a worst-case scenario, which is a mix of 2004 and 2008. Since they felt comfortable to begin with, the survey also had no "attack questions" on Crooks.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 02, 2012, 03:00:59 PM
Some notes:
- Gregg seems to have some late momentum, but it won't be enough to win. My guess is around 50-42-6.
- At this point, I'd say there is a 95% chance Republicans have 7 of the 9 Congressional seats here.
- Also, being struck with the reality that the GOP won't take the Senate regardless, I'm going to end up cheering for Donnelly on election night. I have a fundamental difference with him in terms of healthcare and government spending, but I truly believe he has Indiana's interests at heart, where I honestly don't think Mourdock does anymore - he just strikes me as an opportunist. Indiana deserves better than to be represented by someone as vile as Richard Mourdock.

Oh, if only Lugar had been nominated. :( This will be a nice "Told ya so" I'll be venting about for months and months after the election is over.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 04, 2012, 06:36:43 PM
My county's newspaper did a straw poll, and the party ID and such looked right. The results had Buchson winning 65-30, Mourdock winning 55-40, and Romney winning 71-27.

The numbers will be a tad closer - Romney should get around 65% here, Buchson should be around 60%, but what is troubling is Mourdock leading by just 15 points among a group that also favored Romney by 44 points.

Mourdock will likely barely scrape by with a win in Clay County - that spells recipe to a comfortable loss overall. I'm going to say Donnelly wins this 51-43-6.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Gass3268 on November 04, 2012, 07:02:46 PM
I'd love to see a county map of how you think the Indiana Senate race will go!


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 04, 2012, 08:50:57 PM
I'd love to see a county map of how you think the Indiana Senate race will go!
I'll try and get a rough sketch tomorrow. :) It'll look fairly similar to the 2008 Presidential map, but with a few more southern counties voting Donnelly.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2012, 10:51:39 PM
Indiana is more Pub than the rest of the zone because it is more culturally traditional, it is "in" to be young and a Christian, it's light on the ground with upper middle class liberals, and the base of the Dem support there is white working class folks who have been trending Pub as the private sector unions died. And the Indianapolis Star is still a conservative rag so far as I know, unlike most big city papers. It also doesn't have many Hispanics of course, but yes that is true of the region in general outside of Chicago. It also has less of a Yankee cultural population than say Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio and Illinois (Protestants from New England), which population has trended to the Dems. Just my guess at it.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on November 07, 2012, 02:39:29 AM
Try the curbstomp Stutzman threw on the democrat in the third.

Stutzman 2018 would destroy Silent Joe.

Jackie won :-)

Indiana has also a tendancy to be nortorious vote splitters


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 09, 2012, 03:48:14 PM
Well, I said Donnelly would win 51-43. He won 50-44. So I was pretty close. ;)

Every district voted exactly how I thought it would...except the 2nd. I expect Walorski to win by around 10 points - the district is much more friendly to her than 2010, and she faced a weaker opponent. I was completely shocked at how close that race was, but at least she held on! :)

Also, I'll officially jump on the bandwagon - Stutzman `18!!! :)


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 09, 2012, 04:04:35 PM
Well, I said Donnelly would win 51-43. He won 50-44. So I was pretty close. ;)

Every district voted exactly how I thought it would...except the 2nd. I expect Walorski to win by around 10 points - the district is much more friendly to her than 2010, and she faced a weaker opponent. I was completely shocked at how close that race was, but at least she held on! :)

Also, I'll officially jump on the bandwagon - Stutzman `18!!! :)

I thought he had his eyes set on 2016?


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 09, 2012, 04:09:58 PM
Coats has been raising money - all signs point to him running for reelection. His voting record has been solid as well, so I don't see him being primaried either.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 09, 2012, 05:10:57 PM
Well, I said Donnelly would win 51-43. He won 50-44. So I was pretty close. ;)

Every district voted exactly how I thought it would...except the 2nd. I expect Walorski to win by around 10 points - the district is much more friendly to her than 2010, and she faced a weaker opponent. I was completely shocked at how close that race was, but at least she held on! :)


Democrats should keep IN-02 in their sights.  Perhaps Tim Roemer would run there?  Its quite a bit like his old district. 


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: JoeyJoeJoe on November 09, 2012, 06:28:33 PM
What about Todd Rokita for Senate?  He's already run statewide.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 09, 2012, 06:55:42 PM
Indiana is more Pub than the rest of the zone because it is more culturally traditional, it is "in" to be young and a Christian, it's light on the ground with upper middle class liberals, and the base of the Dem support there is white working class folks who have been trending Pub as the private sector unions died. And the Indianapolis Star is still a conservative rag so far as I know, unlike most big city papers. It also doesn't have many Hispanics of course, but yes that is true of the region in general outside of Chicago. It also has less of a Yankee cultural population than say Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio and Illinois (Protestants from New England), which population has trended to the Dems. Just my guess at it.

I recently drove through Indiana, and I think it gave me a pretty good feel for the state's politics. You can see that there's a lot of farm country, which we all know is pretty decisively Republican (despite its absolute dependence on government subsidy). But once you get to the suburbs of Indianapolis, you get a different feeling. The area is much more modern. People congregate at Starbucks. People own iPads. They're Republicans, a lot of them, but they're living in the 21st century.

That's why Donnelly won. These voters took a look at Mourdock, and didn't see themselves. They saw some bizarre caricature of the worst of the Republican Party. They saw someone who, while pro-life like them, took his beliefs to a hateful extreme that made it sound like he was blaming women for their own rapes. They saw a man who, in the primary, said that it was his duty to inflict his beliefs -- these ugly, reprehensible beliefs -- on others.

Romney isn't that kind of Republican. It's hard to know what Romney truly believes (and personally, I think his position on social issues has a very unfortunate super-conservative Mormon taint to it), but it's easy to separate Romney from Mourdock. That's why Romney won. Voting for Mourdock requires a very specific ability to rationalize brutally out-of-step, countercultural behavior. And in the end, that's all the votes he got: Some from hyperpartisans who were willing to look past clear faults to win a GOP Senate, and some from tea party true believers who think it was a mistake giving women the right to vote. That's just not a winning coalition in Indiana or Missouri.


Title: Re: Indiana 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: adma on November 09, 2012, 10:25:29 PM
Indiana's like an Ohio where a Columbus totally overpowers anything a la Cleveland or Cincinnati.