Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Silent Hunter on November 28, 2004, 12:45:18 PM



Title: British pollsters
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 28, 2004, 12:45:18 PM
Which British polls do you take seriously?

I'm an ICM man myself. They get pretty (as in 1%) close.

Here's a poll I have some reservations on:

Independent on Sunday/ Communication Research 24 Nov 04 - 25 Nov 04
1033 sampled
Con 31
Lab 42 (!)
Lib Dem 20

That's very similar to the 2001 result.


Vorlon, any opinions on UK polls?



Title: Re: British pollsters
Post by: Ben. on November 28, 2004, 01:26:13 PM

I've been imploring Vorlon to comment on UK polls for ages! But to no avail sadly.. hopfully he'll pay attention to this :)

ICM

YouGov

CS

Populus

Mori

...of all of these I'd go with ICM and of late YouGov have improved but imput from Vorlon would be very welcome.


Title: Re: British pollsters
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 28, 2004, 01:31:27 PM
I think the expression: "hot dog poll" is accurate as far as most U.K pollsters go...


Title: Re: British pollsters
Post by: English on December 02, 2004, 09:54:47 AM
My predicition on the final vote share would be....

Labour 39% (-2)
Conservative 32% (+1)
LD 20% (+2)


Title: Re: British pollsters
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 02, 2004, 09:58:59 AM
My predicition on the final vote share would be....

Labour 39% (-2)
Conservative 32% (+1)
LD 20% (+2)

Looks about right


Title: Re: British pollsters
Post by: Ben. on December 02, 2004, 05:30:26 PM
My predicition on the final vote share would be....

Labour 39% (-2)
Conservative 32% (+1)
LD 20% (+2)

I think the Conservatives will do better than that, but Labour seems about right.


Title: Re: British pollsters
Post by: Silent Hunter on December 08, 2004, 03:52:27 AM
There are two main ways of polling here:
1. Weight by age, religion, region etc.
2. Ask how they voted last time. If 85% of Labour voters say they'll vote Labour next time, give Labour 85% of their 2001 figure.


Title: Re: British pollsters
Post by: J. J. on December 10, 2004, 12:06:14 AM
How long is it until the deadline for the next election (yes, I know that they are not fixed).


Title: Re: British pollsters
Post by: Silent Hunter on December 10, 2004, 05:49:35 AM
It's got to be held by 7 June 2006.