Talk Elections

New Poll: Mississippi Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2011-03-27 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2011/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2820110327108)

Summary: D: 27%, R: 53%, U: 20%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MS_0330.pdf)

Complete results:

Phil Bryant ...................................................... 53%
Bill Luckett ...................................................... 27%

Phil Bryant ...................................................... 56%
Johnny DuPree ............................................... 25%

...

Dave Dennis ................................................... 43%
Bill Luckett ...................................................... 25%

Dave Dennis ................................................... 41%
Johnny DuPree ............................................... 28%

...

Hudson Holliday.............................................. 38%
Bill Luckett ...................................................... 28%

Hudson Holliday.............................................. 37%
Johnny DuPree ............................................... 28%

...

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Phil Bryant?

Favorable........................................................ 32%
Unfavorable .................................................... 27%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Dave Dennis?

Favorable........................................................ 13%
Unfavorable .................................................... 22%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hudson Holliday?

Favorable........................................................ 7%
Unfavorable .................................................... 24%

...

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bill Luckett?

Favorable........................................................ 13%
Unfavorable .................................................... 22%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Johnny DuPree?

Favorable........................................................ 12%
Unfavorable .................................................... 28%

...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MS_0330.pdf

Well, as expected: Nothing to see here.

Phil Bryant = next governor of Mississippi.

The only interesting question will be who wins the Democratic primary.

DuPree, who is black - or Luckett, who is white.

They are both not well liked by Democrats so far, even though DuPree is known by more.

Why would a black Democrat even want to run for governor in MS?

John Eaves for Governor!

Why would any Democrat? Probably just to get some attention or to represent their party.

White Democrats (such as Ronnie Musgrove, Barbour's predecessor) can and do win.  Black Democrats cannot and do not.

I thought you were talking about this specific election, where no Democrat would have a chance. You're right about black Democrats not having a chance though. I wonder how even a black Republican would fare.

It's free country, people can run for whatever they want regardless of race or party. Non-viability certainly doesn't stop Republicans from running in some places where it makes absolutely no sense for them to run.

No surprise at all in these numbers. It's been assumed pretty much since the last election in 2007 that 2011 would be Bryant's to lose.

And just for the record, it's becoming harder and harder all the time for Democrats to win in Mississippi regardless of race. The state is growing more Republican almost by the day it seems. The last 10 years have seen a lot of people here sour on Democrats at all levels - not just on the federal level.

     Musgrove won narrowly in 1999 & lost re-election by 7% in 2003. As ScottM pointed out, Mississippi has become more Republican since then. White Democrats have won the Governor's mansion in Mississippi in our lifetimes, but they probably can't today, barring extraordinary circumstances.

To show just how close the election was the last time a Democrat ran, Musgrove received 49.6% of the vote compared to Mike Parker's 48.5% of the vote. Since Musgrove failed to break the 50% mark, the election went to Mississippi's "electoral vote." To win the electoral vote a candidate would have to win the vote of a majority of Mississippi's 122 House districts. But, the race was tied 61-61 there. So, the Governor was selected by the House, and since the legislature was still dominated by Democrats at that time, Musgrove was of course selected, in a 86-36 vote along party lines.

But, there's one more point to be made about the closeness of the race, Musgrove as Lieutenant governor had relatively high name-recognition across the state, while Parker's name-recognition was more local as he was the Congressman from CD-4. I remember that was a big question in the race: "Can Mike Parker overcome the name-recognition gap?" As the results show, he nearly succeeded.

Edit: One more point I failed to mention. Musgrove was, as mentioned, defeated by Haley Barbour in his re-election bid. Mississippi is not a state with a history of throwing out incumbents (one reason our 2010 Congressional results surprised some). And yet, Barbour defeated Musgrove by a not-insignificant 7%. That demonstrates the shift that was happening pretty well.

Bryant is also way ahead in the primary:

The Republican candidates for Governor are James Broadwater, Phil Bryant, Dave Dennis, Hudson Holliday, and Ron Williams. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Phil Bryant ...................................................... 63%
Dave Dennis ................................................... 14%
Hudson Holliday.............................................. 2%
James Broadwater.......................................... 1%
Ron Williams................................................... 0%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 20%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MS_0407915.pdf

It's 2011, and a plurality of Mississippians still oppose interracial marriage?!

Republicans only.

They only asked Republicans, which was a dick move.  The Memphis ABC affiliate went out on the street and the first guy they found was a Democrat who opposed interracial marriage.  The crosstabs are interesting though.... didn't realize that Michelle Bachmann supporters were more tolerant than Mitt Romney supporters:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MS_0407915.pdf

They also asked about the Attorney General race, and the incumbent, Democrat Jim Hood, is ahead 49-32. That's a little surprising.