Talk Elections

Polls show that Zapatero is the most hated president in the history of modern democracy in Spain. he's at 3.3/10 in the last CIS (best poll here in Spain).
 PP's president, Mariano Rajoy, who soundly lost to Zapatero in 2004 and 2008, leads him by an average of 13 points, but he's also hated by spanish people (latest CIS put him at 3.87/10).
In the lattest CIS, PP had 44.1% of the vote and PSOE 34%, but other polls show rajoy leading by 13, 15 or even 17 points.
The only politicians who Spanish really approve are vice-president Alfredo Perez-Rubalcaba (5.6/10) and Minister of Defense Carme Chacon (5.1/10).

We were expecting for a Zapatero announcement since last year. a majority of people thought he would not run again (me too). Today, he's officially announced he's not running again.
Rubalcaba is the most likely nominee, but PSOE might have primaries because Chacon has presidential ambitions and Jose Bono (president of the congress) too (Bono barely lost to Zapatero in 2000's primaries).

Polls also show that we prefer Rubalcaba or Chacon over Rajoy as president. That doesn't mean they're leading in polls (for the moment, there aren't any polls Chacon vs. Rajoy or Rajoy vs. Rubalcaba).

http://www.elpais.com/articulo/espana/Zapatero/voy/ser/candidato/proximas/elecciones/generales/elpepuesp/20110402elpepunac_2/Tes

http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/-/world/9124254/spanish-pm-says-will-not-stand-in-2012-elections/

I will campaign for Rubalcaba. I don't think Chacon will run against him because he's beloved by the base. But if it's rubalcaba vs. chacon, I may support her. I don't know.

President ?

Please rename it to "Parliamentary Elections".

Spain has a King and an Prime Minister, not a President.

Presidential ? ???

It's the wrong day for April fools, you know ? :P

Strictly speaking, Spain doesn't have a prime minister either. Zapatero's official title is Presidente del Gobierno (President of the Government). However, since he's not directly elected by the people there's still no such thing like a presidential election in Spain. Only a parliamentary one.

David Cameron and François Fillon are called "Primer ministro" in Spanish btw, so they do make a distinction in title between prime minister and president of the government.

The translation of the Spanish "president"'s title into English raises an interesting point though. Why is the German Bundeskanzler translated to chancellor instead of prime minister, while the Spanish Presidente del Gobierno is translated to prime minister instead of president?

President of Government is fine. Italy's head of government is called Presidente del Consiglio too, even though since the last decade Italians have started calling it "Premier" which means nothing.

Yeah, call it parliamentary. Even though the presidential candidate in Spain plays a major role and is pretty defining, more so than a simple party leader like here.

Beat me.
Of course, Italy also has a "normal" President.

I wonder if calling the Spanish President that is something of a formulaic compromise from the late 70s, when the reintroduction of the monarchy was far from universally accepted.
Wikipedia tells me that until 1939, the Spanish prime minister was called "President of the Council of Ministers", ie the exact same title as the Italian one. Franco was "President of the Government" (ie the modern title) and "Caudillo" until 1973, which is reminiscent of, and probably modelled on, Hitler's double-title as "Führer und Reichskanzler". After that he served "only" as Caudillo, partly out of old age and de facto inability to govern, partly as part of the transition to a monarchy (conceived to be less direct than Franco's rule had been, even though not by any stretch as the democracy Spain would become by a gradual process begun right after Franco's death and not really finished until after the 81 coup.)

Why should I ? ??? ;D

It's past tense. You made the point about "Italy too" before I could.

Oh, ok. LOL :P

Yes, Zapatero is president, not prime minister... I'd call it Parliamentarian elections... but really, here in spain we talk about "elecciones presidenciales", not "elecciones del congreso", so I think it's fair to call them presidential elections... I know the name may be wrong, but if you ask here in spain if they vote for a candidate for president or if they're electing a new congress, more or less about 90% of people will answer they are voting for their new president.
The thing is, do you think PSOE will be able to recover??

So Spain is a parliamentary democracy in name only ? Too bad, they don't know how lucky they are not to live under a presidential autocracy.

I don't see how Spain's parliamentary system with party leaders and PMs playing a dominant role is any different to Canada, the UK, Italy or other countries. It's not as if the leader's stature plays no role in those countries, especially Italy.

Things certainly were very different in Italy pre Tangentopoli. (Though they started to change in the 80s.)

Still, that's quite depressing to imagine that people, when they elect their MPs, say "I'm voting for Presidential elections !". But you're right, the executive's growing domination in parliamentary regimes is quite depressing.

Actually, wouldn't it be a presidential election in name only... since it is in fact a parliamentary election? ;)

There. A neutral term. If somewhat anachronistic.

Spain is a parliamentary democracy, and the title given to its prime minister is "President of the government". "Prime minister" is a British term; in many other countries they use something else formally, but then say PM informally. For that matter, official title of Putin is "Chairman of the Government", but I never heard him referred to as "Chairman Putin", not even in Russian.

I guess it's ok, because Wikipedia uses it as well (and the Spanish Wikipedia too for that matter).

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_generales_de_Espa%C3%B1a_de_2012




Not the case in Spain though. Zapatero is indeed known as "el presidente" there, since president is used as a short form for president of the government. ;)

Yeah, I've even heard Berlusconi called "Presidente" a couple of times too. Though our elections are "elezioni politiche" (which makes me wonder if other elections were supposed to be apolitical, LOL :P).

yes, zapatero is my Presidente, not my primer ministro hahaa... and here 99.99% of the people don't know who they're voting for =/.
I don't like this system, because nationalist such as CiU, which got 300,00 votes in 2008, have 10 seats in the congress, while Izquiera Unida had 1 million votes and only 2 seats.

It sounds seriously stupid to not vote tactically much given the election law... yet I have a feeling that lots of people in Spain might and don't. Greece is even stranger in that respect.

Yes, I know a lot of people who identify theirselves as communists and only vote PSOE (over IU) because they're afraid their vote will be useless and PP will win. That happened in 2008, when PP was leading in polls...
look at CiU and PN: they are centre-right nationalist parties which always win regional elections. but more than 50% of their voters voted PSOE in 2008.

The PP was leading the polls in 2008 ? How comes ? ???

yes, they were tied until the month before the elections. but the impression was that PP was underpoilling. I remember a majority of people thought rajoy would win by a close margin until the presidential debates, where zapatero crushed rajoy.

Weird, at the time I had the impression that Zapatero was safe. Of course medias often suck when it's about commenting a foreign election, but still, the feeling was that PSOE was going to win easily.

Here we thought the election would be very close... and as we know, every PP supporter votes on election day. the problem is that lots of socialists stay at home. zapatero would have lost if nationalists in catalunya and basque country hadn't voted for him (people were really afraid of a PP government).

But what I ask myself is why ? ??? Wasn't everything going fine in Spain at that point ?

the thing is that zapatero won in 2004 because of the irak war. many conservative people voted PSOE only to punish Aznar. remember than aznar won in a huge landslide in 2000.  zapatero lost that vote of punishment, so we thought rajoy could win.. but then, nationalists and communists helped us and zapatero was reelected. never before a president had received 11 million votes here.

Considering the probability of any individual vote to turn out to be decisive in terms of seat allocation, it is not stupid at all. To the extent that one votes to make a personal statement, it may be fun to vote whatever - more fun than voting, say, PP or PSOE. As the seat allocation, for all practical purposes, is independent of my vote, why exactly should I do anything else?

My understanding was that Aznar lost the 2004 election because of the obvious attempt to pin the Madrid bombings on ETA, not due to Iraq directly. Certainly he was on track to win reelection until a couple of days after the bombing (which also happened to be a couple of days before the election). True, the bombing was actually related to Iraq, but I thought (perhaps incorrectly) that the real anger that tipped the scales was about the attempted cover-up, not about al-Qaeda launching a terrorist attack to begin with. (i.e., Aznar would have won reelection had he simply admitted it was al-Qaeda, but he tried to cover that up until after the election, and it backfired spectacularly.)

Aznar could not have lost re-election as he was not actually running for re-election.

Aznar wasn't running for reelection... but he chose who would replace him (PP hasn't got primaries). Rajoy was Aznar in 2004.

92% of Spanish were against the War in 2004... and after 11-M it was obvious that Irak was a fatal error. But elections happened on 14-M, and there's a law here in Spain that doesn't let polls to be published the last week before the election.. so we didn't know what was going on (but obviously everybody thought that would icrease Zapatero's chances of victory). but even before 11-M, zapatero and rajoy were tied in polls (rajoy was leading since the begining of the year, but zapatero was able to catch him in polls).

any polls ?

The KGB would hack them anyways.

Zapatero won in 2004 because Aznar rushed to give an "explanation" for the Madrid suicide bombs: ETA, ETA, ETA !
He lied and he lost.
But till almost the end, unless my memory is bad, the PP had a plurality in opinion polls.
Of course, the PP had lost ground because of Iraq and of Rajoy's personality, but it was still ahead, if I remember correctly.

Since the end of the 1990s, the 2 blocks were almost equal, even in 2008 while the PSOE was "successful" and PP was falling asleep with Rajoy.

That's only recently that a wider gap has opened.

Yes, new polls:

CADENA SER:
PP 47%
PSOE 35%
IU 4.3%
CiU 3.5%
UPyD 1.5%
PNV 0.7%

Carme Chacon 45.8%
Mariano Rajoy 40%

Alfredo Perez-Rubalcaba 45%
Mariano Rajoy 40%

It must be the first time there's that difference between voting for a party and a candidate... I'm glad Chacon and Rubalcaba are leading.

Why is Rajoy still PP's PM candidate after losing two elections in a row?

He's the president of the party. and PP hasn't got primaries or "democratic" caucuses ;). Also, he's not as nutty as Esperanza Aguirre (leader of the most conservative wing of the party) and not as moderate as Gallardon (leader of the minoirity centre-right wing of the party, what's hilarious because Gallardo is the son of a Franquist minister)

Good to see that, I hope Spain can liberate herself from this crazy marxist idiot Zapatero this time around...

LoL. I think he isn't socialist enough. But, you only saw what you wanted. Rajoy's behind the 2 most likely candidates ;)

Apparently, some people need to learn what marxism really is.

Hopefully the KGB will steal the election for the PSOE anyways. ;)

Publiscopio

without candidates:

PP 40.1 (-3.4)
PSOE 37.8 (+7.6)
IU 7.2 (-0.9)
UPyD 2.3 (-2.5)
CiU 3.9 (+0.2)
ERC 0.6 (=)
PNV 1.7 (-0.4)
BNG 1.3 (-0.2)

If Rubalcaba is PSOE's candidate:

PSOE 40.9%
PP 39.9%

Who would you prefer as President of Spain?

Rubalcaba 47.3%
Rajoy 31%

If Chacon is PSOE's candidate:

PSOE 40.6%
PP 39.7%

Who would you prefer as President of Spain?

Chacón 46.9%
Rajoy 30.5%

Interesting gap between the party vote and the personal vote... Quite funnily, a French-like presidential system would favor the PSOE, while it cost the French left two elections at least.

Yes, but the poll may be an outlier... IMO, PSOE is still triling by 5-6 points... the personal vote... I actually think Rubalcaba and Chacon tie Rajoy. they're the only popular politicians here in Spain (Javier Solana and Felipe Gonzalez don't count).

So, soon back to a balanced situation, as usual... ?

And with Rajoy again, the PP is heading towards another defeat, while they shouldn't lose in 2012...

After all, the French right may not be the stupidest of the world ;D.

There's no democracy to elect PP's candidate... in any village, city, autonomic community or the whole country. that's why Rajoy is still PP's president. If PP had primaries, he would not get more than 20% of the vote, with a far-right candidate winning and a moderate candidate like Gallardon coming in 2nd place.
I'm glad PP is the stupidest conservative party of the world. that's why they have only been in government only 8 years while PSOE has governed 22 =)

CIS:

PP 43.8%
PSOE 33.4%

No new polls. But it's official: Rubalcaba will be our candidate. Chacon won't be running in the primaries, which are supposed to happen in september.
Rubalcaba has the support of every regional leader, the president and all the ministers. so, it's unlikely he'll have serious competition.

Be careful with "miraculous candidates", Julio... Sometimes they end up in a strange way. :(

rubalcaba won't have challenger, most likely. if someone wants to challenge him, that person will have to collect 22,000 signatures in the next 15 days. and for the moment, only one person has announced. a philosophy teacher who's also a musician and who took part in a TV programme. so, a joke of a candidate, as I said.

Toni's thinking of DSK.

yes, but DSK had challengers, rubalcaba will be running alone. and he's not an ambiguous politician, like DSK.

now that rubalcaba is the candidate... and if a miracle doesn't happen, will be the winner of our primaries... we have a new poll from "el periodico de catalunya", and likely we'll have new polls on sunday.

PERIÓDICO DE CATALUNYA:

PP 44% (-0.5%)
PSOE 35.3% (+4.3%)
IU 5.8%
UPyD 4.1%
CiU 3%
PNV 1.2%
ERC 0.7%
Others 5.9%

Who would you prefer as your President?

Rubalcaba 40.8%
Rajoy 35.4%

The discrepancy between party poll and personal poll is quite stunning.

Yes, it may be because Rubalcaba is the most popular politician in Spain (he and Chacon are the only ones who could be considered "popular") while Rajoy has always been hated by everyone.

But why doesn't his popularity translate on the party vote ? People know voting PP means getting Rajoy and voting PSOE means getting Rubalcaba, don't they ?

You could have asked Callaghan the same thing in 1979.

Yes, but there's a good amount of people who probably don't know Rubalcaba won't be our candidate. Then, remember that IU voters prefer him over Rajoy, and even over Cayo Lara (IU's leader), but will vote IU anyways.
And then you have those CiU, ERC, PNV, BNG, CC, Na-Bai voters who say they'll vote for their parties... but then realize if they don't vote PSOE,  Rajoy will be president. And Rubalcaba is popular among nationalist voters, too. So, my theory is that they dislike PSOE, but Rubalcaba is OK for them.
A good example of that is my family in Catalunya. They always vote CiU. But they like Rubalcaba. If you ask them what party they'll vote, they'll answer: CiU.
But if the question is who would you vote if the election was Rajoy vs. Rubalcaba vs. lara vs. duran i lleida (ciu's leader)...? they would likely answer Rubalcaba.
And I'd bet my money they'll finally vote PSOE next year. Their vote was for Zapatero in 2008, too.

I hope you're right, that people will realize that either they vote strategically or they will get the fascists... But I'm pretty worried these numbers could hold...

After PP won everything last week... things have been changing a lot.
First, Esperanza Aguirre cut the aides to the childhood books. Also, she has increased her salary (she said in her campaign she would not do that).
In Castilla La Mancha, PP's said the community is in bankruptcy, but that's obviously false. Books for school are free there, but Cospedal has said they won't be free anymore. and she's really unpopular.
Rajoy has said "we will have the welfare state we can have", cleary referring to cuts in the communities where they have won the Presidency. So, IMO, the election will be really close come 2012.

Remember that PP won the regional and local elections in 2007, but lost in 2008. The same could happen this time.

So the PP isn't even trying to look sane and moderate and is shooting itself in the foot by showing everyone it is 100 times worse than the PSOE ? That's certainly great news.

Spain is more conservative than France, or Italy or the UK. But here we have a conservative party which looses points in every general election campaign. It always happens. They could have thorwn Rajoy out and selected a new candidate, like Gallardon or Feijoo, and they would have won in 2008, and 2012 wouldn't be even close.

Aguirre the schoolbook snatcher...doesn't have the same ring to it.

hahaha... Aguirre should have lost this year... Javier Solana should have run =/ but I'm confident she'll loose in 2015. this year was PPslide and she still lost a lot of votes.

And today we have had some new polls... where PSOE is down 10 points (El Mundo) and 13.8 points (EL PAIS). but rubalcaba leads rajoy by 6 points in the two polls.

Is that an Aguirre, the Wrath of God reference or am I seeing things?

It's surely a reference hahahaha...

Looks like it's being moved up a few months to November 20th - http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iEQ8pAl_gNoauJYA6u8je3NlZp1A?docId=CNG.2ffb46ba6b1be5db2d6f75f4440c5c02.2f1 (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iEQ8pAl_gNoauJYA6u8je3NlZp1A?docId=CNG.2ffb46ba6b1be5db2d6f75f4440c5c02.2f1)

I don't really know what they're trying to gain. Letting the Falangists take charge a tad earlier? Hope quixotically to gain something out of Rubalcaba's recent nomination? Hope that corruption in Valencia and the Falange in general will play a role?

At any rate, a PSOE win in this would be a comeback kid for the centuries. Yes, I know Rubalcaba's quite popular and Rajoy isn't, but the PP remains favoured.

Might be thinking that there's no point in stretching things out any further.

July 2011 CIS poll/vote estimate:

PP 43.1%
PSOE 36%
IU 5.1%
CiU 3.1%
UPyD 3%
ERC 1.1%
PNV 1%

Hmm... PP lead less than what I presumed it to be.

Maybe Zapatero tries a Schröder-like coup. Who called snap elections when the party trailed by 28:45 or so, and came damn close.
But - platitude alert! - of course Spain 2011 is different to Germany 2005.

Fingers crossed that the PP at least doesn't win an outright majority.

Zapatero didn't want to move the election to november. but Rubalcaba did, because he thinks PSOE can make a comeback. I think we should have elections in March, not November. but here are the reasons:

-50% of the people wanted elections before March, 2012. Of that 50%, many are PSOE voters.

-Unemployement is the biggest problem here in Spain. We loose jobs in October, November, December, January, February and March, while we gain jobs in the spring and summer. If we have elections in Nomvember, the unemployement rate will be lower than in March. That'll surely help Rubalcaba.

- ETA's really weak right now. Rubalcaba's the most popular and succesful Minister of the Interior. And people are talking that ETA will dissolve by september-october.

- Francisco Camps, president of Valencia, reisgned last month (you know, corruption, as usual). Rubalcaba thinks he can use that in the campaign. But March may be too late to use the "Caso Gurtel" in the campaign.

-Rubalcaba has the momentum right now. It could be finished by March (that's what he thinks, because I disagree).

- There's a reason elections will be held in November, 20, known in Spain as 20-N, the day Franco died. That'll help PSOE, I think.

The campaign hasn't started, and Rajoy is "only" 7 points ahead of Rubalcaba. Remember that 4 months ago, his lead was of 15 points. And rmemeber that Rajoy is an awful campaigner, too, while Rubalcaba is charismatic and moderate. PSOE's clearly trying to loose by a small margin, they didn't think they could win before this poll. But now there's optimism in the party.

I think we could still win this election with a good campaign. We have the right candidate. They have the wrong canidate. And look at this questions CIS poll asked:

we'll read some words. Tell me which candidate represents them better:

Efficiency:                                Rubalcaba 38.9%       Rajoy 28.3%
Dialogue:                                 Rubalcaba 45.3%       Rajoy 25.1%
Negotiation skills:                    Rubalcaba 42.3%       Rajoy 25.5%
Honestity:                                Rubalcaba 31.6%       Rajoy 22.1%
Understands Spain problems: Rubalcaba 34.7%       Rajoy 27.6%
Forward-looking approach:     Rubalcaba 34%          Rajoy 29.7%

Wow, I really didn't expect that move.

I'd like to be as optimist as Julio, but if the PSOE loses it will really be shame.

I don't think this is a good move, but it's not a bad move either. Hashemite covered why it's not a good move, but it's not a bad move because it's minimizing risk. Every extra day Spain hangs around in the Eurozone is an increase in probability for a crisis of some sort. As some creditors intend on making a debt meltdown a self-fulfilling prophecy, who knows what the fiscal condition of Spain will be by early 2012?

Statistics filler:
If the PSOE is kicked into opposition this election, there will definitely be 3.5 left-wing governments in Europe: Cyprus, Greece, Slovenia and Austria (the .5). A left-wing victory in Denmark would make that 4.5.

In the European Union, that is. Outside you have Norway and Iceland, along with some of the Balkans governments.

And technically, Switzerland is another 0.25.

The earlier the better, actually.

People, I'm not saying Rubalcaba will win. I'm saying he CAN win with a good campaign. Rajoy's campaign is supposed to be awful, as usual. But I know there are many people who voted PSOE in 2004 and 2008 and won't vote anytime soon. That's a huge handicap if we want to win... on the other hand, we have the young people, the 15-M protesters, and some communist who could vote PSOE because they know Rubalcaba is an "old-guard" (vieja guardia) socialist, and a honest person. He's to the left of Zapatero, but he needs to demonstrate that. there are many socialist voters who are dissatisfied with PSOE because they think the party has become too capitalist.

PP begins with 10 million votes. In a good day, Rajoy could get as much as 11.5 or 12 million votes.
PSOE begins with 7.5 milion votes, I think.
IU has right now 1.5 million votes, more or less.
Nationalists from the left or from the right should be given 2 million votes, I guess.
UPyD, 600.000 votes.
Undecideds are 3 million people.

Rubalcaba has to do the same Zapatero did in 2008: pick 1/3 of IU voters, pick 50% of the Nationalist vote and 60-70% of the undecideds. PP's vote is stabilished. It won't grow a lot, but it won't fall, either. At the ends, 1 in 20 PP voters will vote Rubalcaba (that's what analysts are saying).
UPyD has to "explode". Their leader, a former socialist, Rosa Diez, is supposed to be hurting the two big parties. But I'm sure her electorate prefers Rubalcaba overr Rajoy. And UPyD's voters DON'T stay at home.
so, 7 millions + 500.000 IU voters + 800.000 nationalist votes + 200.000 UPyD's + 2 millions undecideds = 10.5 Million votes. And I guess PP will finish with 11 or 11.5 Million votes. Rubalcaba may not win, but the election will be close =) Rajoy won't have a majority in the Parliament, at least.

What does Rubalcaba need to do?? Turn left (he's doing exactly that) and show to the people he's turning to the left, too. Then, campaign HARD, really HARD, in Euskadi, Catalunya, Andalucia and Valencia. A majority of the undecided and nationalist vote comes from there.
He should have some respected politicians as head of the list in those communities:
Carme Chacon for Catalunya,
Rosa Aguilar (former major of Cordoba, former IU member) and Felipe Gonzalez for Andalucia (believe me, RbCb's trying to get him involved in the campaign),
José Bono and Jose Maria Barreda in Castilla-La Mancha,
Maria Teresa Fdez. de la Vega in Valencia,
José Blanco in Galicia,
Guillermo Fernandez Vara (and if it's possible, Rodriguez Ibarra) in Extremadura,
Juan Fernando Lopez Aguilar in Canarias (really important if he wants to pick nationalists there),
Vicente Alvarez-Areces in Asturias (too old, I don't think he'll want to campaign, but, if he does, Asturias will vote PSOE)
...

PSOE's bench is formidable. Rubalcaba has to get them involved. And if Javier Solana gets involved in the campaign, I think Rajoy will have some headaches ;)¨

You know what this means right? Battle of the Beards - Spanish Style


()   vs.   ()

Has Rubalcaba stolen one of my ties?

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

CiU and PNV won't hurt PP. There aren't many potentially PP voters in Catalunya or the Basque country. In catalunya, PP share will increase, for sure, but Rajoy will have to keep his voters in Valencia, Galicia and Madrid, so he won't spend much time in Catalunya (Rubalcaba will).
Remember one thing: while PP margin over PSOE was of 10 points in the las local elections, PP only had 38% of the vote (only 1% more than in 2007). So, really, PP hasn't got more room to improve their numbers. And in the campaign, Rajoy knows he'll loose some points, too. What he's trying right now (and I'm seeing it on TV) is to stay quiet, not say anything and keep things going on. he's "sleeping", because he's a loser-machine, and everything he says, makes him loose voters. that won't work forever, I hope.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

What was incorrect about that statement that made you feel it was appropriate to accuse me of talking out of my ass?

I don't know, maybe thinking that the PP and the nationalists in Catalonia and Euskadi share voters or that the nationalists hurt the PP. If you think that the only reason the PP is weak there is because the nationalists take their vote, then you should read more about Spanish peripheric nationalism. It's, afaik, pretty basic stuff central to Spanish politics.

Please, everyone, don't post here unless you know exactly as much as Hash. I would say you can post if you know more but obviously no one has greater knowledge.

Remember folks, the PSOE has a tradition of underpolling at general election time.

I didn't say that, I said the nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right, but support autonomy and nationalism unlike the PP. I never said that all of their support comes from people who would vote for the PP. The PP is weak there because they have historically fought against greater autonomy and cultural recognition in the regions, whereas the nationalist parties and PSOE have.

Nationalist don't take support away from the PP. Nationalists hurt PSOE, and viceversa. A conservative CiU or PNV nationalist can vote PSOE to keep PP out of the Presidency (see 2008).
There's a poll from EL PAIS today which says it's PP 44% PSOE 31%. The good thing is that rubalcaba, again, is seen as a better candidate. And that only 52% of socialist are voting Rubalcaba because:
1) They don't care about the election because they think PP will win anyways.
2) Zapatero has upseted them with his "capitalist" economic policies.

They say, however, that Rubalcaba can make a comeback if he continues to move to the left and people start to think he has an option.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

There's a difference between talking about something you don't know, and making bold assertions about things you don't know a damn about. A lot of American posters in this board do exactly that, and it's genuinely annoying.



The PP is the incarnation of everything regionalists fight against. 99% of nationalist voters would never ever vote for the PP, no matter what their views on economy are.

You're lucky it's the morning and I feel generous.
"nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right [...]" That is one of the biggest false statements I've heard.

While it is true that Basque and Catalan nationalism are in plurality right-wing, and they have clear reasons for being right-wing; what holds the PNV and CiU together is not acting as a conservative-party-for-the-region a la UPN but rather nationalism. Both parties appeal beyond basic conservatism and the right. While perhaps in a totally alternate universe where there's no such thing as Basque and Catalan nationalism and everybody there loves Spain, maybe the PP would be strong.

If the PP is weak in those regions it is because it carries opinions contrary to those of a majority of voters. It is because it is the voice of Spanish nationalism and has a clear record of opposing much devolution, although the Aznar 96-00 government did indeed devolve powers which had yet to be devolved. The Catalan PP is the only party, with the Cs, which is not even moderately Catalanist, which a vast majority of Catalan voters (80%+) are. Its strongholds are not rural Catalonia, but rather the least nationalist coastal region around Barcelona. The Basque PP is the most vocal representative of Spanish nationalism in Euskadi. If it has such a base in Euskadi today it is only because Basque nationalism unlike Catalanism is not some broad consensus shared by 8 in 10 Basques, but rather a polarizing ideology which has its fair share of opponents, a lot stemming from the fact that many people in Euskadi don't even understand Euskara and have historically hated Basque nationalists. It also has a base as the most vocal opponent of ETA's terror, which has allowed it to take in a lot of votes from ETA opponents. Normally, people who hate ETA don't normally vote PNV, you know.

While the CiU and PNV have both cooperated with the PP, they did so for clear reasons of necessity. The CiU is closer to the PP because they're moderates, but there is very bad blood between the PNV and PP ever since roughly 1998 (and before, obviously. I doubt the Gernika Survivors Club is fond of Manuel Fraga's party) when the PNV chose the path of alliances with other nationalists including the abertzales instead of the 1980s cooperation with Socialists. It is infinitely clear that the PP does NOT lose support to nationalists because the two take votes from very, very different groups of voters. Those Euskara speakers in, say, Gernika who vote PNV would rather eat their feces than vote for a party which a lot see as the Falange reincarnated. They are much, much more likely to vote abertzale; and, in general, for Socialists.

I don't think you grasp how Basque and Catalan nationalism is not just some cute regionalism about defending a cute language like in Bretagne, but rather a real vision of Spain and vision of the world which is a defining societal and political thing. For them, there's a lot more to nationalism than speaking Catalan/Euskara with friends in a bar. They have a vision of Spain which is different, very much so in the PP's case, from the rest of Spain's vision (broadly speaking and acting as if Galician nationalists are not there). So, yes, please stop "making bold assertions about things you don't know a damn about" because it is very annoying.

Oh, I wouldn't say European posters are generally any better when it comes to sharing their views on American politics. ;)

And when it comes to European posters talking about American elections...

Oh, there's plenty of American idiots on the relevant boards who are so idiotic that we slip right under the radar unless you look hard. :)

The average European forumer knows far more about American politics than the average American forumer does about European politics. That's understandable, considering this is supposed to be a forum about American politics.

It's about the spanish general election in 2011, not about 'European' and/or 'American' posters.

BenNebbich

New Metroscopia poll:

44.8% PP
30.8% PSOE

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hucxnd1JhwqsUlUcRgVD73TerD_w?docId=CNG.0e9d32f6b6e3e44566c0ace391df08f3.511

Urgh. Less good.

Well, I just looked through the Spanish news and it gets even worse:

http://www.larazon.es/noticia/7247-rajoy-noquea-a-rubalcaba

http://www.larazon.es/documents/get_document/44844

La Razon has a new detailed poll out today and the PP is winning in almost every group polled.

Here are the toplines:

46.9% PP (183-186 seats)
30.9% PSOE (118-122 seats)
  6.6% IU (7-8 seats)
  3.8% CIU (12-14 seats)
  3.2% UPyD (4 seats)
  1.2% EAJ-PNV (5-6 seats)
  1.0% BNG (3 seats)
  6.4% Others

Of those who will abstain in the coming elections, 72.5% are PSOE voters and just 18.2% are PP voters.

Of first-time voters, 46% will vote for the PP and only 24% for the PSOE.

Among 18-29 year olds: 41% PP, 25% PSOE
Among 30-44 year olds: 43% PP, 29% PSOE
Among 45-64 year olds: 47% PP, 32% PSOE
Among 65 year olds+: 54% PP, 35% PSOE

Projected abstention will be highest among 18-29 year olds with 44%, while only 23% of 65-year olds+ will abstain.

The PP is also projected to gain almost 1 Mio. ex-PSOE voters in the election.

Mariano Rajoy, PP-leader, is known to 99.9% of the Spanish population and gets a leader rating of 4.4 on a scale from 0-10.

Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, PSOE frontrunner, is known to 94.9% of the Spanish population and gets a leader rating of 4.3 on a scale from 0-10.

Here is the trend chart of voting intentions:

()

No, the polls in the last election correctly predicted a PSOE victory of about 4%.

Even a few months before the PSOE was ahead by about 4%, so it was really steady.

Link (http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Sondeos_de_intenci%C3%B3n_de_voto_para_las_elecciones_generales_espa%C3%B1olas_de_2008#Por_medios_de_comunicaci.C3.B3n_.28tras_el_Primer_debate_entre_Zapatero_y_Rajoy_del_25_de_febrero_de_2008.29)

Sry to say it but the PSOE will get absolutely slaughtered in November.

The only thing they can now try is damage control.

Rajoy is essentially known by every single Spaniard?

According to this poll, yes.

I have also looked up if this is a good or a bad poll and I think they only started polling after the 2008 elections, because I can find only results from the 2009 EU elections and they were really accurate there. They predicted the PP to win by 3%, they won by 3.7%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_%28Spain%29

El Mundo also has a poll, but only for Andalusia.

But because Andalusia has about 9 Mio. of the 47 Mio. inhabitants, it carries some weight.

Here is how Andalusia voted in 2008:

51.9% PSOE
38.2% PP

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/min/busquedaAvanzadaAction.html?vuelta=1&codTipoEleccion=2&codPeriodo=200803&codEstado=99&codComunidad=1&codProvincia=0&codMunicipio=0&codDistrito=0&codSeccion=0&codMesa=0

Here is what the El Mundo poll projects for November:

48.9% PP
34.3% PSOE

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2011/07/28/andalucia/1311847293.html

That is really a very, very bad indicator ...

If that poll is accurate, then... wow.

This poll is not only true, but also backed up by another recent poll I just found:

I was more thinking back to the 1990s when Gonzalez always underpolled (they were meant to lose in 1993 and 1996 was going to be a massive landslide and in the end the PP didn't even win a majority). And of course, there is 2004. Just saying there is history. Not that I doubt that the PSOE will lose here.

If PP "with Rajoy in it" is so far ahead, even in Andalucia, how can the PSOE have the slightest hope ?!

Rajoy is probably one of the worst politicians electorally speaking :P.

I still do not grasp the fact that Rajoy has not been kicked out as PP leader. Surly there must be someone better.

Oh dear God just let this election be over.

There's no point in arguing because whatever I say will be interpreted as being incorrect, or not as detailed as you would like. Sorry if what I stated made it seem as though I was associating the PNV and CIU with political parties like the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania and Swedish People's Party in Finland.

There are, but according to Juliomadrid, its hard to kick him out because the PP doesn't have a party election system like the PSOE.

What broke in the news recently that has led to such a massive swing? Most recent national polls were only showing the PSOE down by 6-10 points.

Just a bit more on Catalan politics. The thing to understand is that in Catalonia the middle/professional classes are overwhelmingly Catalan linguistically and Catalanist politically. Castilian language (and, to some extent, identity) are present in two very diverse population strata: a very small numerically (and, hence, electorally insignificant) aristocracy and the working class (which is, to a not insignificant degree, ethnically Andalusian).

For Catalans (i.e., the Catalan middle class) PP is a foreign party, as relevant to their political choices as the British Tories - except, perhaps, there is less hostility to Tories :)) PP in Madrid stands for everything they despise - mainly, the strong unitary Spanish state. Probably, some figures in local PP would like to mitigate this image, but they are not strong enough either locally or within the national party.

As for the working class, PP, a quintessentially right-wing party, has no appeal. PSC (the local PSOE affiliate) might be Catalanist - but, at least, it is a working-class party.

There is another, historical aspect to this. PP is, fundamentally, a "Franquist" party: perhaps, not formally, but in terms of identity of many of its adherents - it's the party of the victors in the Civil War. It's not that Catalonia didn't have those who actively collaborated with the dictatorship, but, in general, they tended to find their political home in the U wing of the CiU. Unlike those with similar past in Castile, by now they'd rather forget about their own history: it's easier to think that they always have been, at least at home, good Catalan patriots.  And, of course, workers feel little attraction to their historic enemies: their party is PSC, not PP, however upset they might be about the Catalanist policies of the Autonomous governments.

I don't know much about Spanish polling, but, let's keep in mind, that Spanish papers are openly partisan. El Pais is socialist (sometimes even Socialist), while El Mundo is solidly PP. Especially at the early stage of the campaign, I wouldn't put it past either paper to try to use the polling results to influence the actual campaign.

This poll is for regional elections in Andalusia, not the November general elections. Normally, they will be held in March 2012 alongside the GE if there had been no early dissolution. This year, it seems as if Andalusia will hold them alone in March and not precipitate them.

There has been some major scandals around the autonomous government involving the government paying early retirement for people who never worked for a company: http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esc%C3%A1ndalo_de_los_ERE_en_Andaluc%C3%ADa The economy is also, obviously, very bad in Andalusia with something like 30% unemployment.

The PP had already topped the poll in Andalusia in May, the first time since the 1979 locals that a party other than the PSOE did so. The PSOE vote fell by 9% in Andalusia while falling by 7.8% nationally. The PP vote increased by 6.9% in Andalusia while only increasing by a bit less than 2% nationally.

PSOE's nevr lost an election in Andalucia. After more than 20 years, "andaluces" think this is the time to change the Governament. There are a lot of people who will vote PP in the Regional elections but will vote Rubalcaba in November (like Castilla la-Mancha usually votes PSOE in Regionals and PP in Generals, more or less like Arkansas in the USA: democrat and republican in different levels).

If I were you I'd only believe ELPAIS polls, Metroscopia polls and the CIS.
El Mundo, La Gaceta and ABC polls are obviously PP friendly. La Razón is clearly "Marianista" but their polls tend to be OK the month before the election.
Publico polls are biased, too. However, they're PSOE and IU friendly.

We will loose, but not bymore than 7 points, I think. Don't forget, people, that Rajoy is synonim of Disaster.

New poll:

()

Sigh...

Are people that stupid ?

Not stupid, but really pissed.

Pissed by PSOE's spending cuts, hence voting for PP ? This seems like the definition of stupidity.

The ERC vote change is interesting. I'm not terribly familiar with conditions in Catalonia; can someone explain?

Can someone explain without heavy doses of bias why Rajoy is so disliked?

He's very Conservative for a right-winger in Europe.

     Not necessarily. It makes sense if you think of it as a sort of message. Essentially, "do what we like or we will toss you out". Of course the officials in the PSOE are politicians just as much as officials in any other party, so, if they get the message, they will be much more concerned about not angering their supporters in the future.

I highly doubt the PP has the intention not to anger those who were angered by Zapatero's policies. The right knows how to implement universally loathed policies and still get reelected.

     I am rather referring to the PSOE. They may (or may not) learn not to try something as unpopular with their base again, though the price for that lesson will be spending time out of power.

     I will admit to being deeply ignorant of Spanish politics, but what I've seen in this thread suggests that Spain is essentially a two-party state. Without a significant left-wing alternative, the only way for PSOE supporters to express their displeasure is to throw the election to the PP. It may seem like a bizarre course of action to us, but my guess is that people feel that, with austerity, there's not enough of a difference between the two parties to discourage the option of voicing their displeasure by letting the other side win. Either way, they are not getting the programs they want.

     Once again, I don't know much about the views of the election on the ground in Spain. That is a guess, & probably a horribly wrong one. I defer to people who are more knowledgeable about such things.

That might make sense, but I'm sure those people will regret it by the first 3 months of a PP government.

Sizable parts of it are. Others, absolutely not. And even in those sizable parts, it's a recent phenomenon thanks to the near-complete collapse of the IU. Which remains a quite old fashioned Commie party... which helps explain that. A lot of the electorate that votes for Green or other minor left parties elsewhere in Europe has no choice but to stick to PSOE in Spain.

Same sort of thing happened with the Gonzalez government though.

I don't think Social Democracy will learn this lesson in my lifetime.

Probably not. It didn't during the lifetime of my Grandad either (early 1920s to early 1990s).

He lost 2 elections. the moderate wing of the PP (leaded by Gallardon) thinks he favors the ultra-conservative wing (and that's true). The extremist wing leaded by Mayor Oreja and Aguirre) thinks Rajoy is a bad candidate for the party, because he has no personality and has already lost 2 times.


Yes. First, Solidaritat Independentista, a copy of ERC, won 4 seats in the past elections. and the "tripartito" of PSC-IU-ERC was seen as uneffective, and the more nationalist people in ERC prefer to vote CiU or SI, to punish ERC.

_____________________

And remember what I said, ABC, ELMUNDO or LAGACETA surveys aren't reliable. and that +12.6
advantage for Rajoy comes from an ABC poll.

Here we have an IPSOS poll. I don't think it's reliable, either, but PP is up by 8.2%:

()

Are there any numbers from pollsters of how voters see the party leaders?

CiU's fall back from its already poor 2008 showing (21.3%) is interesting. Not all that surprising, given that the Generalitat's finances are in bad shape and the CiU is in power there, but quite interesting. The CiU had already done badly in 2008 - 21.6% - which is a rather poor result even in a general election for them - so performing worst than that is a tad surprising. Also good news for the PSC, given that the Socialists need to do well in Catalonia (they already did spectacularly well in 2008, better even than 1982) to have a shot at winning nationally especially if the Andalusian nightmare plays out for them at the GE.

ERC could probably be at risk of losing all its seats or more likely 2 of its 3 seats. It seems to be falling back to its lows of the pre-2004 era rapidly.

IMHO, tha poll showing CiU losing support isn't reliable. I think CiU will have more votes than in 2008. now, they have 10 seats, and I expect them to gain 2 or 3 =/
ERC has a new leader now, more radical, more "nationalist", who plans to oust Joan Ridao, ERC's leader in the Parliament, and put in his place a more radical person. I think that could help them. If they were supposed to lose 2 seats, I think they could loose only 1 or even stay at 3.

Well, ERC also suffered a lot from the retirement of Josep Lluis Carod Rovira a few years back: he had been a main cause of the ERC's rebirth of sorts in the late 90s and especially 2003-2004.

As for CiU, I don't see why them losing support isn't likely. They do have room to grow, but let's remember that CiU already did relatively poorly in May and that they could suffer the brunt of popular discontent against austerity given that they're now in power in Barcelona.

I think it's extremely unlikely CiU will loose support. 2008 was really a bad year for them, because  half of their voters decided to help Zapatero. And they may be in the power in Catalunya now, and Artur Mas is not exactly "popular", but he will keep some of those 2008 ZP voters at home. Also, Duran i Lleida is the most popular political figure in Spain after Rubalcaba and Chacon.
I wouldn't be too surprised if CiU managed to win 15 seats. But one thing is clear: PSOE will win, again, in Catalunya this year.

Josep Lluis Carod-Rovira didn't retire. He was almost ousted by Joan Puigcercós, the former president of ERC. Carod wanted to be in the campaign of 2009, but Puigcercos thought he could hurt the party. He was wrong, of course.

And talking about Catalunya, here we have an unreliable intern poll from CiU for the Presidential election in Catalunya. PSOE carries 32.1% of the vote while CiU wins 29.7%. PP is stronger than expected, but remember, this is an intern poll:

()

So, actually, PSC are clearly ahead there.

Any significant news or polling recently? Things seem to have gotten awfully quiet.

Nothing afaik. It's dead season as the campaign hasn't started and the writs haven't officially been dropped yet. Most of what has made news yet are little snippets like abolishing provincial governments, proposed by Rubalcaba who then backtracked. Only significant news imo is that Aralar has signed a deal with Bildu for a common slate for the general elections which the PNV has refused. Aralar has nothing much to loose given that Bildu has stolen most of its votes.

Yes, PNV refused. but they could still go in the same lists for the Senate... that's unlikely, however.
Other news is that PSOE and PP are trying to ge the suport of PNV to oust Bildu's Martin Garitano as General Deputy of Guipuzkoa.

And... nothing more. Rubalcaba is campaign¡ng hard and we still don't know where Mariano Rajoy is.

I know the likelihood is tiny, but... Could Rubalcaba pull a Truman ?

From all accounts, it's not impossible, just quite unlikely.

Definitely, he's doing all he can do to win this. It will be really difficult, but I don't think it's impossible.
In Portugal, the PS was trailing by +20, and 2 weeks before the election, they were leading the PSD by 1! However, the PSD won by 10 at the end... It wasn't the worst result. I hope Rubalcaba will make this election really close.

Spanish socialists tend to be like Harry Truman: nobody expected Gonzalez to win in 93, and Zapatero in 2004. And they won, comfortably.

If anybody is interested in this trainwreck:

The PP will win, and if they don't win an absolute majority they should shoot themselves for stupidity. Their campaign is stupid, boring, populistic and hypocritical (attacking the PSOE from the left). But nobody cares. The PP has a deal with the UPN (Navarre) and the PAR (Aragon)

Bildu and Aralar have formed a coalition named Amaiur, Aralar will lead it in Navarre where Amaiur's creation means the end for NaBai. NaBai's only deputy, Uxue Barkos (indie) has formed her coalition with the PNV called Geroa Bai (as time goes on, the name for these coalitions become increasingly terribly tin-pot). The effects of Amaiur on the PNV are as of yet unknown, with predictions for PNV seats ranging from 3 to 7.

Equo, Spain's new green-left party, is going to run. In the Balearics, it has formed a coalition with the nationalists (PSM) and in Valencia with the Coalicio Compromis (nationalists). It is led in Madrid by former Greenpeace boss Juan López de Uralde and the number two is Inés Sabanés (ex-IU). It could win seats, especially given that the threshold in Madrid is like 2-2.5%.

Francisco Alvarez-Cascos, the president of Asturias and leader of the right-wing FAC will run in Madrid and Asturias. It could win seats. Alvarez-Cascos is a former VP of the government under Aznar and was on the PP's far-right and always complained that nobody liked him and threw a hissy fit and left the party. He's one of those 90s-like "regional party which hates regionalists". The FAC needs 10-11% in Asturias to win one seat.

Revilla, the former president of Cantabria and leader of the regionalist PRC is running in Cantabria and elsewhere with the PCAS (Castilian Party) and PR (Riojan party). He'd need 16% in Cantabria to win a seat.

Spanish pollsters are fyckwits who refuse to poll Amaiur, Equo or FAC. And only right-wing media polls, basically.

A PP internal had PP on 189 seats, PSOE on 115, IU on 8, CiU on 14, PNV 6, UPYD 3, PNV 6, Amaiur 4-5 and FAC 1-2. A poll by El Mundo sez PP 47.4%/PSOE 31.8%/IU 5%/CIU 3.2%/UPYD 3.1%/PNV 1.2%.

Aren't you a bit pessimistic ? I don't really know how each party stands right now, but there are still weeks before the elections and if PP is that uninspiring the current trend could maybe be reversed.

Yes, Spanish polls are the worst in the World =/

I can't understand why the hell they don't poll Amaiur!! I remember when pollsters said Alvarez Casvcos was a distant 3rd in May.. LoL

Here's what I think:


-1st Uxue will be reelected, she's a good fit for Navarra and people like her.
-2nd Rubalcaba is a damn good campaigner. He'll make the elction closer... I don't think he will win, but PP will not have an absolute majority if he continues fighting.
-3rd Equo is being polled, and I think they'll get 1 seat from Madrid, 1 from Barcelona and 1 from Valencia.
4th Revilla deserves his seat in Cantabria. And he will win it.
5th Alvarez-Cascos may finish 2nd, after PSOE, in Asturias... Nobody knows, but he will likely get his seat in Asturias and 1 in Madrid is also likely... I know a lot of people here who are going to vote for him.. I think even Aguirre will do that xD
6th I think PSOE should break up with UPN in Navarra and govern with Na-Bai, IU and Bildu after the coalition PP-UPN, which makes me sick.
7th Hopefully, IU and CHA will go together in the lists... and if they form a coalition, I think it's likely they will be able to elect 1 congressperson.
8th UPyD will have worst results than expected
Here's my prediction, more or less:

PP - 165 to 175 seats
PSOE - 130 to 140 seats
IU - 5 to 8 seats
Equo/Compromis/ICV - 3 to 5 seats
UPyD - 2 to 3 seats (the problem is that I don't know where)
CiU - 11 to 13 seats
PNV - 5 to 6 seats
Amaiur - 3 to 6 seats
FAC - 1 to 3 seats
ERC - 2 seats
PRC - 1 seat
CC - 2 to 3 seats
PxC - 0 seats /it may sound weird, but I wouldn't mind if they won 1 seat, because PP deserve to have opposition from the right)
PR/PCAS/PA and other parties - 0 seats

The gap may close, yeah, and I'm a bit wary of the polls because the bulk of them are for the right-wing media (though one for the Periodico showed the same numbers).

But even if the PP campaign sucks balls, they're the sole governing alternative to a government in a country with 20%+ unemployment and which makes headlines daily because it is speculated it'll go bankrupt like Greece soon. Even if the opposition sucks balls, it's hard for it not to win in a landslide (eg: Enda Kenny). Their campaign sucked balls in May and there were some important corruption cases then, yet it won in a landslide too. I guess they'll win a narrow absolute majority, at 2000 levels give or take. Similar result for the PSOE, a bit over the 2000 results if they campaign well.

re: Upyd: if they are to win 2 or 3 additional seats, they'll be in Madrid. Their problem is that outside Madrid, they do best in provinces which have very few seats, and do more poorly in the populated provinces like in Valencia or Andalusia. Valencia might be its only big chance outside Madrid and they have an actor guy as their candidate there.

The PP (horrible party) will win with a majority, then the economy will be worse, then riots n' stuff. The King shall save the country again.

"Eshpanoles, vuestro Rey sufre con vosotro'" and all that sh**t.

Hash, Toni Cantó is a good candidate for UPyD in Valencia... I think they may get 2 seats in Madrid and maybe 1 in Valencia... I hate Cantó, but people like him, and I don't know why. Maybe it is because his daughter, 18, died last year.

And, remember, in May, PSOE got 28% of the vote and PP 38%. what does that mean? PSOE had a horrible result, but PP didn't have a good result, they should have reacher 40%. I don't think Rajoy will get an absolute majority.

There will be at least 2 debates. I hope Rubalcaba makes Rajoy cry there.

Valencia created Benidorm, Zaplana and España2000.

Rajoy will talk about la niña de Rajoy, rajoydi.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nd2hVRKWnLs

Why aren't you a PP supporter if you vote Conservative in Uruguay? I'm not sure if Juan Carlos can do much if there are more protests.

Conservatives in Spain are much more to the right than right parties in Uruguay. I mean, half of the right parties here support homosexual marriage.

So is the Frente Amplio and Colorado Party basically borderline Communist then?

It's somewhat surprising Republicanism isn't as strong in Spain as in some other nations. Doesn't it seem a little pointless for millions of Euros being spent each year to maintain palaces, and other properties which the Royal Family doesn't even use (The Palace in Madrid being a perfect example)? I have nothing against them, it just seems strange that they are so modest relative to their Royal status.

I don't really know, but it must have something to do with the king having played a key role in the country's democratization after Franco's death.

There's a proverb in Spanish: "Juancarlista but not Realista".

And I don't understand the problem with the uruguayan right being secular. This is one of the less religious countries in the world.

There's nothing wrong with it, I was just trying to make a little joke about how left wing it is which I guess fell flat. :P Isn't that ironic since Latin America is a very religious region of the world?

There are lots of Republicans here... I am a republican, too. My father is, my mother, my teachers, my neighbors... I supoose about 60% of the people here are republican... what's the problem??

The left (republicans) love the King. I like Juan Carlos, too. we think he's a leftie guy, and a republican, too. we have a republican King, imagine!!! The right used to like him, but now they hate him, I see it when I talk to conservative people, and when I watch conservative channels xD


So, I think we will ask for Republic when the King dies. Communists and "Indignados" are already fighting for the Republic, but Socialists like me prefer to let the King die after a good life.
If Spain had to vote in "King elections" Juan Carlos would win in a landslide... so, what's the problem with him?? He's not expensive like the Queen of England, he doesn't like big Castles and Palaces.

I like him too, but just thought it was a little odd how much money the Prime Minister spends on maintaining all these Royal properties that the Royal Family doesn't want to live in. I guess Republicanism is more popular there then I thought. It just seems strange that there has not been successful efforts to put the question of a Republic on the ballot through a referendum like some countries have done. The King's personal popularity I guess is probably the reason like you said.

Yes, that's it. When the King dies, I think the Left will cry more than the Right haha... However, when the King dies, people will go to the streets to ask for a Republic. Old people from the left always talk to us about the 2nd Republic, and a majority of the youngs want a Republic here (specially grandchildren of that people who fought for the Republic in the Civil War).

Mariano Rajoy isn´t fit to run an egg and spoon race... Though this clearly has never stopped people before, least of all in Spain.

I prefer him rather than Esperanza Aguirre.

That's a nice variation on an old line. I may steal it.

I prefer Rajoy to Aguirre because I hate Aguirre. but Rajoy will not be good for Spain

Is it fair to say that PP is close to the mainstream of the Republican Party here (let's try to avoid the Tea Party rants, etc.)?

I think it's fair to say that no mainstream conservative western European political party is close to the mainstream of the Republican Party.

Aguirre, FAC and their gang are close to the modern mainstream of the GOP. Rajoy and the gang would be rather moderate establishment politicians. Ruiz-Gallardon and his gang would be Democrats.

So why not accept mediocrity?

Anyway, the PP is too a "Spanish" party in many ways to be comparable to any of the other western European conservative parties (this is to say nothing of its origins). It is actually comparable to the Republicans in that sense.

I don't think that Felipe is so disliked, no? He could be a decent king in the future

I like Felipe, there are a lot of people who like him, too. but we don't want him to be the King, I think. let him be happy and rich, but in the Republic of Spain.

I don't think Gallardon would be a democrat. he's a moderate when he talks, but when he acts he's only a bit less conservative than Aguirre

We could say the same of a lot of democrats. :P

That's true.. Manchin, Zell Miller, Bayh, etc. But they should be GOPers, too

3 polls out today. With 6 weeks to go, the PSOE is still stuck in deep sh*t:

El Mundo/Sigma Dos:

47.8% PP (193 seats)
31.6% PSOE (122 seats)

La Razón/NC Report:

46.1% PP (183 seats)
30.6% PSOE (118 seats)

The PP is also expected to win 15 of the 17 regions.

La Vanguardia/Noxa Consulting:

46% PP (186-192 seats)
33% PSOE (115-122 seats)

I don't like this election much.

I don't trust ELMUNDO and LARAZON. don't know about La Vanguardia... they are pro-CiU and those numbers don't make much sense... upyd and iu at 4 congressperson is unlikely. Let's watch next CIS, ELPAIS and Antena3 polls of the next weekend.
Rubalcaba is doing all he can to make the election closer... and he will manage to narrow it a bit, but those numbers make me sick, he isn't improving.

The other day Aristegui (PP) said "PSOE will likely win the campaign, but we'll surely win the election". It is sad, but it is probably true.

Of course the Republican Party isn't founded on fascism.

Well, but in short time to say that PP "was founded on fascism" will be like saying that US democratic party was founded on slavery and segregationism.

30 years after its foundation, the democrats were still segregationist.

And, anyway, it isn't as though the Democratic Party actually exists as a national organisation - or ever has.

^^^^

Old, but always accurate ;)

That´s why I said "this is to say nothing of its origins".

Now it's really time to say GAME OVER to the Spanish Socialists even for the few members here who thought the PSOE could narrow the margin:

El Pais poll out today:

45.5% PP
29.7% PSOE

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2011/10/16/actualidad/1318723042_948659.html

El Mundo poll out today:

48.0% PP
30.8% PSOE

http://elmundo.orbyt.es/2011/10/16/elmundo_en_orbyt/1318731297.html

What this election needed - it is too late now - is a new left alternative to the PSOE. Along the lines of the Democracia Ya protests, for instance.

Down by eighteen? Urgh. Shades of Dalton's famous diary entry from '31, even if it's nowhere near that bad.

Yeah, Rubalcaba will loose, but I still think he will loose by 5-7%, and not by 15-17%. PP cuts in education is going to hurt Rajoy.

General Election Result 2008
PSOE (Socialist Party of Spain) 44% winning 169 seats
PP (Popular Party) 40% winning 154 seats
United Left 4% winning 2 seats
CiU (Convergence and Union) 3% winning 10 seats
Basque Nationalists 1% wining 6 seats
UPyD (Union, Progress and Democracy) 1% winning 1 seat
PSOE lead of 4% but short of an overall majority by 7

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_general_election,_2011 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_general_election,_2011) shows the polls as carried out by CIS since April 2008 which in the most recent one for July 2011 shows PP with a 7% lead over PSOE

There is already a topic on this with 13 pages ...

Please delete.

;)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=133984.0

With 1 week to go, there is a new COPE poll out:

45.4% PP (188-192 seats)
31.8% PSOE (115-118 seats)
  5.6% IU (8 seats)
  3.4% UPYD (3 seats)
  3.3% CIU (13 seats)
  1.4% AMAIUR (4-5 seats)
  1.3% PNV (5-6 seats)
  7.8% Others

http://www.cope.es/file_upload/pdf/13210151551072155440.pdf

Bloodbath.
Anyway,maybe it's the fact that I am in Catalunya and not "proper" Spain  (doing the Erasmus in Barcelona),but there is not much campaigning,just a few billboards.

In Catalunya, PSC will win, and probably in Euskadi, Jaen and Huelva we win, too... nowhere else =/

New poll by the University of Murcia:

47.7% PP
28.7% PSOE
  7.6% IU
  4.2% UPyD
  3.4% CIU

http://www.um.es/cpaum/pdf/Preelectoral_11112011.pdf

I can't believe polls are so bleak. OK, economy goes wrong, but a 20-points lead ?? :o

Actually, it seems there are a ton of final polls out:

Metroscopia/El País:

45.4% PP (194 seats)
30.9% PSOE (112 seats)

Sigma-Dos/El Mundo:

47.6% PP (198 seats)
29.8% PSOE (112 seats)

DYM/ABC:

46.5% PP (187-188 seats)
34.2% PSOE (123-126 seats)

Noxa/La Vanguardia:

44.7% PP (184-189 seats)
30.1% PSOE (116-120 seats)

GESOP/El Periódico:

46.2% PP (188-192 seats)
30.2% PSOE (115-118 seats)

Tábula-V/LA GACETA:

45.2% PP (184-187 seats)
31.3% PSOE (121-123 seats)

What's also important:

The IU is gaining ground strongly in the final week. It is now polling between 7% and 10% in these polls. Probably pissed-off PSOE voters, who switch over to the Left.

Yeah, was just gonna say - those polls above average 46% PP to 31% PSOE, so a 13% drop since 2008 for PSOE, but only a 6% rise for PP.

In deputies..., it's more or less like this:

PP 188-194
PSOE 115-122
IU (with ICV) 7-12
UPyD 2-4
CiU 12-14
ERC 2-3
PNV 4-5
Amaiur 4-6
Geroa Bai 0-1
FAC 1-2
PRC 0-1
Equo/Compromis 1-3 (0-1 Equo 1-2 Compromis)
BNG 2-3
CC 2-3

I expect PSOE to have more than 125 seats, and PP to have less than 185, because you know lots of IU/CiU/PNV votes will finally go for Rubalcaba as people don't want to have a PP absolute majority...
FAC failed to gain traction here in Madrid, it seems that the far-right is going to vote PP no matter what.

Doesn't Spain have some form of proportional representation? How is it that the IU can get so few seats even with over 10% of the vote?

D'hondt by constituency.

Yes, but PR in provinces, which means that the real threshold in a lot of provinces with few seats is pretty high and in practice favours a polarized two-party system. The only places where the threshold is reasonable enough for third parties like IU to win seats are those with 10-12 or more seats, of which there are pretty few such constituencies.

(All things you guys would know if you read my blog!)

Yes, so IU only has possibilities in...

Madrid: they will surely win 2 and 3 or 4 could be possible, too.
Barcelona: ICV may take 2 seats, 3 with a bit of luck.
Zaragoza: IU should not be a factor here, but the coalition IU-CHA may win 1 seat here
Teruel: I've been told that IU has real possibilities here, and they say they're going to fight hard to get their seat. IMHO, it's nearly impossible.
Valencia: 1 seat (almost sure) and with a bit of luck, 2.
Alicante: they are campaigning hard, but they may not win their seat here...
Murcia: they have a good candidate, so it's possible they could get 1 seat. Not likely, but not impossible.
Sevilla: IU's pretty sure they will have a seat here, and they want their 2nd seat (but I think it's impossible, let's see).
Malaga: here, they are fighting to get 1 seat. I think there's a 50% probability they will get it.
Granada: IU says they can win 1 seat here. I doubt it.
Cordoba: same as Granada.
Cadiz: same as Granada and Cordoba
Asturias: they might win 1 seat here, but only because Gaspar Llamazares is their candidate.

So, IU could win 20 seats in a great night for them Cayo Lara, IU's leader, says they're going to get 21 seats.
Polls predict they will get 2 in Madrid and Barcelona, and 1 in Valencia, Sevilla, Zaragoza and Asturias with possibilities in Alicante, Murcia and Malaga (1) and one more in Valencia, Madrid and Barcelona.

I predict IU will get 6 seats (2 in Madrid, 1 in Barcelona, 1 in Valencia, 1 in Zaragoza and 1 in Sevilla) because 1/3 of IU voters will finally vote PSOE.

Let's see what happens.

PSOE could actually get below 30%? I know they've screwed up horribly, but it's hard to imagine they've fallen so low from their Felipe Gonzalez days.

I doubt it. PSOE is polling above 30% right now, and "technocrats" here say PSOE is trailing by 9 points (so, experts say polls are biased because people is really angry and say they're not going to vote PSOE... and finally they WILL vote PSOE).

Felipe Gonzalez has said today he was trailing by 9 points in 1996, too, and lost by only 1 point. So, for him it's not impossible to win this. I'm not that optimistic, but I hope we get better results than expected.

Exactly - Gonzalez seemed to trail by 9, but lost only by 1. Rubalcaba seems to trail by 19, and will lose by only 9.
If those experts are right, and a lot of middling-soft PSOE support comes back.

trails by 19 in ELMUNDO polls... which are really biased.
I'd say he trails by 13, and people don't really think he's trailing by more than 10. This is Spain, we have bad pollsters, and 90% of them work for a political party, or support one candidate.

Ah, the ole "Shy Conservative Factor"

This is quite similar in Italy (center-right did far better than polls in last 2 general elections) and moreover people don't trust pollsters, don't answer, especially if their are supporters of a resigning government

It hardly seems like there is a campaign on at all...

Gonzalez too was seen as probably trailing by less than polls claimed (though more than the single point he eventually lost by).

Tomorrow I'll make an analysis about each party possibilities in each Province.

Let's start today:

A CORUÑA

PP won 4 seats here with 43% of the vote. PSOE got 3 with 40%, while BNG won the last one with only 12%. IU had a ridiculous result here in 2008, they didn't even manage to get 2% of the vote.

A Coruña is a really conservative province... and the best one for PP in Galicia in this year's municipal elections. IU had a good result in the capital, too. PSOE lost the mayorship, and had a very bad result in Santiago and Ferrol, too. In small villages, results weren't THAT bad for them.

So, this time we have a very strong PP, a stronger IU, and a weaker PSOE. BNG may loose some votes, too. But they'll keep their seat, for sure. In 2008, PSOE had a very good result, but that didn't translate in seats... so, they can have a worse result than 2008 and still keep their 3 seats.

Polls predict 5 PP, 2 PSOE, 1 BNG.

PSOE has a damn good candidate here, Francisco Caamaño, minister of Justice. Not charismatic, but a common "gallego", a hard-working campaigner and a really clever man. So we could have a surprise here, with PSOE keeping its 3 seats.

My prediction (being optimistic with my party):

PP 4 seats
PSOE 3 seats
BNG 1 seat

A Coruña is actually historically the most left-wing province in Galicia and the only one which has voted PSOE in the past. But yes, the PP did exceptionally well in A Coruña this year with the big gains in Ferrol and Santiago which were pretty historic. In contrast, the PP's performance wasn't as shockingly impressive in Pontevedra, Lugo or Ourense.

()

Mistakes likely.

'89 and '96 are "prettiest".

I'm campaigning hard these days... tomorrow I'll have sometime to post my analysis.. But I'm not sure, I'm promoting a Cinema session in my high school and I want a looooooooooooot of people to come, I've been in contact with different associations, political parties, organizations... and tomorrow is the day of pupils hahaha... We (my economics teacher and me) want this to be a success :)

Excellent work on the maps again Al :)

Could I ask what the polling hours are (local time) and whether I may be permitted to report the results sourcing EuroNews?

Why shouldn't you be permitted ?

Because EuroNews is not a quality source. There'll be much better ones available. ;)

I saw something that seems to imply polls close at 9 (local time). No idea if polls close at 9 local time in the Canaries (which use GMT) or at the same time as on the continent.

I'm sure polls open at 9 and close at 21:00. In Canary Islands, I'm not sure, but I think they close at 8:00

Here are some statistics from the MIR (Spanish Interior Ministry):

35.779.208 people will be eligible to vote

34.296.458 who live in Spain and 1.482.750 Spanish who live abroad

http://elecciones.mir.es/generales2011/Las_elecciones_en_cifras/Las_elecciones_en_cifras.htm

I'll try a prediction:

44.4% PP (ca. 185 seats)
33.1% PSOE (ca. 115 seats)
  8.3% IU
  3.9% CiU
  3.5% UPyD
  6.8% Others

Turnout: 70-75%

PS: I'd probably vote for Equo (a small Green party) if I could vote in Spain today.

BTW: The first turnout estimate will come at 2pm.

Is turnout expected to drop significantly ? With the crisis and all, there should be plenty of people disappointed by politics in general.

Or they could just support smaller parties this time.

We'll know more at 2pm.

This will be the results page incl. turnout figures:

www.generales2011.mir.es

This is seriously one of the weirdest elections I've ever "lived".
Nobody seems to give a damn,NOBODY.

Because the result's always been obvious and Rajoy's awful.

that's remain me a word from civil war times : "In Burgos, even stones are nationalists"

Turnout is lower so far:

37.9% vs. 40.5% in 2008

That would mean ~70% turnout for today.

In my town the turnout is higher than in 2008. In the Basque Country, Jaen and Cordoba it's also grown. In the rest of Spain, it's lower.

I've been all the time helping PSOE people this morning. But, you know, "Alea Iacta Est". Rajoy will win, unfortunately...

My prediction:

PP 183-186
PSOE 126-129 (being optimistic)
IU 7-9
UPyD 2-3
CiU 12
PNV 4
Aralar 5
BNG 2
CC-NC 3
FAC 2
ERC 2-3
Compromis/Equo 2
PRC 0 (unfortunately)

What's your town?

No chance of PP being under the magic 175 line ?

But seemingly not awful enough to repel voters to the point where they're incentivised to go out and vote against him.

The next turnout numbers will be released @ 6pm.

61% will be the number to beat for this measurement.

La Razon will have an Exit Poll already @ 8pm, not 9pm when polls close:


http://larazon.es/noticia/3746-hoy-a-las-20-00-horas-encuesta-exclusiva-en-la-razon

Turnout @ 6pm was 57.5% instead of 61%.

So yeah, 70% looks good for today.

So polls close in roughly two and a half hours, right? When do we expect PP to hit around 160-175 seats? Does anyone have a decent live stream of the results coverage?

PP will have 175 seats at the very beggining of the night. I'll be following the results here: http://www.generales2011.mir.es/ini99v.htm

and also in ELPAIS.COM, twitter and elmundo.es

My town is San Sebastian de los Reyes (north of Madrid)

Do you know of anyone with a live stream video of the results?

You mean, a livestream of some tv station's reporting of the results? You want to practice your spoken Spanish comprehension?

I can understand Spanish to an extent, so if anyone has a livestream link, post away!

Heh. The German wiki has more to say on it than the English. :D

It's a dull, uninteresting place (Sorry Julio). A Spanish equivalent of an exurb nowadays.

http://www.rtve.es/

The higher turnout is actually noticeable in the Basque Country. I went to vote at 12:30 and there were a lot of people in the street, much more then usual. I voted for the PNV, and so did my dad and sister. My mum voted for Rubalcaba in fear of the PP, which she despises.


I don't agree with your prediction when it comes to the PRC. I think that they will win 1 seat. Also, I wish you're wrong about the PNV and  that we maintain our 6 seats, or at least the 5 required to have our own group in Congress. By the way, it's not Aralar but Amaiur, and yes, it will achieve a very good result.

Well, what do you expect from a place that was a village until 50 years ago and now has almost 80,000 inhabitants?

Nothing. But I did have to work there for a while. So I was noting it from experience.

GALICIA:

A Coruña PP 4 (=) PSOE 3 (=) BNG 1 (=)

Pontevedra PP 4 (+1) PSOE 2 (-1) BNG 1 (=)

Lugo PP 3 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1) (being pessimistic becuse my guts say they will have 2 each)

Ourense PP 3 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1)

ASTURIAS: PSOE 3 (-1) PP 2 (-2) FAC 2 (+2) IU 1 (+1)

CANTABRIA: PP 3 (=) PSOE 2 (=)

PAIS VASCO:

Bizkaia PSOE 3 (-1) PNV 2 (-1) PP 2 (+1) Amaiur 1 (+1)

Araba PSOE 2 (=) PP 2 (+1) (Here I don't know if PNV will finally get their seat... so, 0-1 for them)

Guipuzkoa PSOE 2 (-2) Amaiur 2 (+2) PP 1 (=)  PNV 1 (-2)

LA RIOJA: PP 3 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1)

NAVARRA: UPN-PP 2 (=) PSOE 2 (=) Geroa Bai 1 (=) (here, Amaiur could get 1 seat, "stealing" it from PSOE or Geroa Bai)

ARAGÓN:

Huesca PP 2 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1)

Zaragoza PP 4 (+1) PSOE 2 (-2) IU-CHA 1 (+1) (my relatives from there say it'll be 3-3-1, I hope they're right)

Teruel PP 2 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1)

CATALUNYA:

Lleida PSOE 2 (=) CiU 1 (=) PP 1 (=) (but polls are convinced it's 1-2-1)

Barcelona PSOE 11-12 (-4 -5) PP 8 (+2) CiU 7 (+1) ICV 2-3 (+2 +1) ERC 2 (=) (sorry, but I don't know how things will go here, Barcelona and Catalunya are impossible to predict)

Girona CiU 2 (=) PSOE 2 (-1) PP 1 (=) ERC 1 (=) (PP could get 2 and ERC 0)

Tarragona PSOE 3 (-1) PP 2 (+1) CiU 1 (=) (polls predict 2-2-2)

COMUNIDAD VALENCIANA:

Castellón PP 3(=) PSOE 2 (=)

Valencia PP 9 (=) PSOE 5 (-2) IU 1 (+1) Compromis 1 (+1) (10-4-1-1 is also a possibility, and some people say UPyD will win a seat here, because their candidate is a famous, but really bad, "actor")

Alicante PP 7 (=) PSOE 5 (=)

MURCIA: PP 7 (=) PSOE 2 (-1) IU 0-1 (= +1) UPyD 0-1 (=+1) (I hate Murcia, so it would suprise me if they voted 8-2 PP, oh, and I think IU's more likely than UPyD to get a seat)

ANDALUCIA:

Almeria PP 4 (+1) PSOE 2 (-1)

Cádiz PP 5 (+1) PSOE 3 (-2) (Cadiz lost 1 seat)

Córdoba PP 3 (+1) PSOE 3 (-1)

Granada PP 4 (+1) PSOE 3 (-1)

Huelva PSOE 3 (=) PP 2 (=)

Jaén PSOE 4 (=) PP 2 (=) (Polls say it's 3-3 but Jaen people are really intelligent, let's see what happens)

Málaga PP 6 (+1) PSOE 4 (-1) (or 7-3, Malaga is becoming the new Almeria, which is the new Murcia)

Sevilla PSOE 6 (-2) PP 5 (+1) IU 1 (+1)

EXTREMADURA:  

Cáceres PP 3 (+2) PSOE 1 (-1)

Badajoz PP 3 (=) PSOE 3 (=) (Badajoz, I trust you... but polls say it's 4-2)

CASTILLA LA MANCHA:

Toledo PP 4 (+1) PSOE 2 (-1)

Albacete PP 3 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1)

Ciudad Real PP 3 (=) PSOE 2 (=) (efecto Barreda)

Cuenca PP 2 (=) PSOE 1 (=)

Guadalajara PP 2 (=) PSOE 1 (=)

MADRID: PP 20 (+2) PSOE 10-11 (-4 -5) IU 2-3 (+1 +2) UPyD 2-3 (+1 +2)) Equo 0-1 (= +1) (so, PP has 20, PSOE 10, UPyD 2 and IU 2, and the last seat could go for PSOE, UPyD, IU or Equo)

CASTILLA Y LEÓN:

Ávila PP 2 (=) PSOE 1 (=) (Avilla is reeeeeeally conservative, so it could be 3-0)

Burgos PP 3 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1)

León PP 3 (+1) PSOE 2 (-1)

Palencia PP 2 (=) PSOE 1 (=)

Salamanca PP 3 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1)

Segovia PP 2 (=) PSOE 1 (=)

Soria PP 1 (=) PSOE 1 (=) (in a very good night for PP, it's 2-0)

Valladolid PP 3 (=) PSOE 2 (=) (or 4-1, I don't know)

Zamora PP 2 (=) PSOE 1 (=)

ILLES BALEARS: PP 5 (+1) PSOE 3 (-1)

ISLAS CANARIAS:

Las Palmas PP 5 (+1) PSOE 2 (-2) CC-NC 1 (+1) (Hopefully, PSOE wins 3 and CC-NC 0)

Tenerife PP 3 (+1) PSOE 2 (-1) CC-NC 2 (=)

Which is Aralar + EA, right?

I can understand a channel's graphics.  :P  It's also fun to observe the atmosphere even if I don't understand what is being said.

FF!

Hopefully the PNV does keep all its 6 seats. I doubt they'll win less than 5 seats, though.

It may be for you, but you shouldn't have said that. I love "Sanse" and we're the most "fast-growing" town in Madrid (is fast-growing right?). And we have the biggest green local party in Spain (Izquierda Independiente).

Aralar+Bildu (EA, Alternatiba and more importantly, the zquierda Abertzale)

I'm going to the party headquarters at 9 o'clock to see what's going on there.

Fast-growing areas usually suck balls, though.

Which is... some new mainline HB successor?

Discúlpame.

(Btw, fastest-growing)

Yes, hopefully PNV wins more votes than Amaiur, but I also hope that the people in Euskadi vote like your mother :)

My dad has voted PSOE, and all but one person in my family (wh lives in Cat. and has voted CiU)

My neighbors... I'm sure a majority of them have voted PSOE and IU (my neighborhood is the only one in Sanse where PP didn't won in May, Izquierda Independiente won)

I guess you could say that.

I'm not going anywhere. I haven't got anything to claim victory for.. so, the only thing I hope is Rubalcaba has a not-that-bad results and PRC wins the seat they deserve).

Sanse is the most comfortable place to live in the World, too. We can catch the train to Madrid and be there in 30 minutes... We have the biggest shopping malls in Spain, and the city is really quiet and modern.
Also, we're called "La Pamplona Chica" because, after those in Pamplona, our festivals are the best in Spain (and our "encierros" are famous all over the World)
So, stop talking about Sanseeee!!

12 minutes to go.

I thought polls closed at 9:00...

Sólo 10 minutos!! I'm very excited hahahahahaah :)

I'm absolutely devastated.

How quickly do you guys see the Rajoy government becoming extremely unpopular and prompting mass protests/riots?

I've just realised that I've no alcohol in my flat, so will have to find some form of drowning-sorrows substitute. Biscuits, maybe? Think I've still some leaf tea left as well. Not ideal for these purposes, but will do, I think...

Spanish Exit Poll (Source: TVE)
PP 44% +4% winning 181 - 185 seats
PSOE 30% -14% winning 115 - 119 seats

Quite soon, actually.

Rajoy IS very unpopular, and there'll be protests tomorrow.

First polls, coming from PP:

PP 185-195
PSOE 115-125

What an useless poll!!!

____________________

Here I have some questions:

-Will PSOE win more or less seats than 125 (the number of seats carried by Almunia)?
-Will Revilla get his seat in Cantabria?
-Who will win in Huelva?
-Who comes 2nd in Catalunya, CiU or PP?
-Will Equo have a parliamentary group (+5 seats)? (ICV-equo-compromis)

______________________

RTVE poll:

PSOE 30% 115-119
PP 43.5% 181-185
CiU 13-15
IU 9-11
Amaiur 6-7
PNV 4-5
UPyD 3-4
ERC 3
CC 2-3
BNG 2

FAC 1 Geora Bai 0-1 Compromis 0-1

Good showing for regional parties and/or Commies, then.

Heh. And then Julio beat me, with the detailed figures. Thanks! :)

Nice to see the nationalists are doing well, but it's a pity for the PNV.

For reference, the PSOE's worst result since the return of democracy was in 1977 (29.3% and 118 seats), while the PP's best result was in 2000 (44.5% and 183 seats). Good set of results for the non-PSOE left, by the looks of things.

Importante facts:
IU gets 1 seat in Asturias
Amaiur wins the battle against PNV
UPyD may get their seat in Valencia
ERC will get a better than expected results (as I predicted)

Ugh, UPyD is awful and Rosa Diez is an insane Franquista.

I'd say give him 2-3 months in office before his approval rating is lower than Zapatero's is now.  The question is, will the PSOE manage to clean up its tarnished image enough to capitalize on his unpopularity by the next election?  Doubt it.  

Yes, but there were a lot of left parties which then went to the PSOE, like PSP, some communist parties, PSUC...

They seem to me to be the most self-righteous party, quite possibly in Europe (note: It seems that a good proportion of my Spanish friends are voting for them so yeah...). But franquista is a bit nuts, though there is clearly some of kind historical continuity between the UPyD and a certain type of Castillian Liberalism.

Wow. I need the name of that anchor on the live stream.  :)  She's the only thing better than the results right now.

Anyone know if Rubalcaba plans to become opposition leader if (or rather when) he looses, or if he'll resign in order to make way for a PSOE leadership election?

The consensus in the press was that he would stay on.

Poll from Canal 9 (Valencia):

PP 20-22
PSOE 10-11 (-4-3)
IU (1-2)
Compromis (0-1)
UPyD (0-1)

Try some cheddar cheese biscuits if you've got any. They do the trick. 

Interesting....

Thus dooming the PSOE's chances of returning to power...unless he wins "by default" in some future election like Rajoy is doing right now.

She's Ana Blanco. The left is in love with her (myself included) and is a brillant journalist, but PP hates her because they say she's biased (which is false, as RTVE and her programme "Los desayunos" has got a lot of international recognition and has won many prizes).

I was hoping that the IU would be the main beneficiaries from the PSOE exodus and not the UPyD.

No, no. Rubalcaba will remain the leader of the opposition, but he won't ru for General Secretary of PSOE, that for sure.

What's being said is that the candidates could be Eduardo Madina, Carme Chacon or Patxi Lopez.
Any of them is perfect for me.

The winner of the night may be Amaiur :(

Does he honestly think he can win a future election?

Uh...I'm not concerned with her politics.  ;)  Thanks for her name!

For the record, I have a history of being attracted to political opposites.

I think he's referring to Ana Pastor, who's way hotter.

No. Wait. Not that old woman. The younger one in green anchoring the commentary.

No, he'll be the leader of the opposition. the candidate will be our general secretary.
And Rubalcaba is a popular man, I'm sure without the crisis, he would have beaten PP...

What we don't want is a replay of 2000, when Almunia resigned the same night he lost and PSOE stayed 1 year and a half without a leader.

When do the proper results start coming in?

LoL, sorry, obviously you're referring to Ana Pastor, and me too. I always change their names hahahaha...

I hate Ana Mato...

Oh, and TV3 says PSC will win in Catalunya, with CiU 2nd and PP 3rd. CiU was 3rd in the last polls, so this will be a better than expected night for Duran i Lleida.

Andalucia RTVE

31-34

PSOE 24-27
IU 1-2

Hopefully the PP doesn't act too fascist and tries to ban Amaiur again.

Catalunya

PSC 15-17
CiU 13-15
PP 11
IU 3
ERC 3

Wow, PP won less seats than expected!!

Euskadi:

Amaiur 5-6
PSOE 4-5
PNV 4-5
PP 3-4

Here, worse than expected for PP, too

Aragon
7-8 PP
4-5 PSOE
0-1 IU

Asturias

PP 3
PSOE 3
FAC 1
IU 1
Canarrias
8-9 PP
4-5
2-3CC
Cantabria
3-4
1-2

CyL
PP 21-22
PSOE 10-11

Extremadura
PSOE 5
PP 5

better than expected

Galicia
PP 14-15
PSOE 6-7
BNG 2

Madrid

PP 19-20
PSOE 10-11
UPyD 3
IU 2-3

Navarra
UPN 2-3
PSOE 1-2
Amaiur 1

Are these actual results or exit poll suggestions?

Murcia
7-8 PP
2-3 PSOE

Rioja
2-3 PP
1-2 PSOE

Valencia

20-22
PSOE 9-11
IU 1-2
UPYD 0-1
Compromis 0-1

Ceuta 1
Melilla 1

RTVE Poll

Sorry, I'm posting them so fast... and I couldn't hear C. la Mancha results... I think it was something like 14-7

Crossing fingers for a PP majority as narrow as possible, but the picture looks bleak.

Ah, right then. So Catalunya not so bad all things considered, Andalucia a disaster (but that was expected, of course).

Yes, as I said PSOE disaster was expected. But PP was expected to get +190 seats.

Hilariously detailed exit polls you got. :)

And yes, 14-7 (it's also on the website. By province, with percentages e.g. "Sevilla PSOE 40.7 5-6 seats, PP 39.6 5-6 seats, IU 7.7 0-1 seats".)

How accurate do these exit polls tend to be?

UPyd 4.3% (RTVE)

A damn good result

The full exit poll is here:
http://www.rtve.es/noticias/elecciones/generales/sondeos-electorales/

Euskadi is funny.

4 minutes left ?

I love the scenes outside of the PSOE headquarters. There are about ten people stationed on the sidewalk as a few others casually walk by. Election? What election?

Yes, it's cold and we've had a terrible night. I didn't expect 10 people to be there.

8%

PP 175
PSOE 110
CiU 17
IU 11
Amaiur 6
PNV 5
ERC 3
UPYD 3
PRC 1
Compromis 1
BNG 2
FAC 1

Seems like the PP told its fans not to bring the Francoist flag like they had in the past.

Note how the two northern Basque parties are being won by different parties.

10%
PP   940.683   39,65%           176      
PSOE   686.021   28,92%   110      
CiU   101.870   4,29%           16   
IU-LV   152.357   6,42%   11   
AMAIUR   115.756   4,88%   6                  
EAJ-PNV   119.000   5,01%   5      
UPyD   82.273   3,46%   3      
ERC      26.697   1,12%   3      
BNG   12.254   0,51%          2      
FAC   15.253   0,64%           1                  
Compromis11.108   0,46%   1      
P.R.C.   3.899   0,16%   1                  

awful results for Equo

176 PP
109 PSOE

23%

They have 0.8% right now and no seat.

Were they polling better before ?

Wow, you count fast. Some provinces over half in already. Only one vote, I know - but are you using paper ballots?

I already had a feeling that I underestimated the small parties in my prediction.

After all they already got 10% in 2008 and I predicted only 7% for them ...

So... it's looking possible that PP might have failed to win a majority. Obviously, they'll be able to govern, but I'd still claim victory if they drop one seat further. >:D

Austrian style fast counting ... :)

I like !

yes ! Zapatero was the archetype of societal-left & anti-economically socialist than I really can't bear.


good news, so, even if i know than PP will not save spain economic. At last, mabye they'll stop societal PSOE-like laws.




PP win also andalusia :shock:

PSOE under 30%... :'(

were are the smileys?

Not really, I've posted polls before that showed the PSOE getting completely fu**ed in Andalusia.

You need to type the code.

There's a list over in the "how to" subboard somewhere...

thanks


(i dont find the list but's not important)



@Branson : congratulations for your predicts, but historically, PP winning al-andalus, that' a real shock !

Turnout will be about 71%, about 3% less than in 2008.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=23821.15

Some more were added after that, though, including > + : + D = >:D and ^ + - + ^ = ^-^
but I can't find the full list of the additions.

At least my seat projections were correct (+/- 5).

Ouch, PP went up nine seats since I last updated. :(

Part of it is that they didn't have any results from the Canarias before.

There is one party (CC-NC-PNC) that has only 615 votes so far but 3 seats ?

What's up with that ?

This maybe count in Canaries...

I give you some fun smillies I like :


classicals :

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() (my favorite)
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no-classicals -but fun for electoral nights and fights
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BREAKING NEWS RTVE LIVE : 50,3% votes officially opened, PSOE 111, PP 186

Canaries regional party. They're at, what, 1.4% reporting. And that's with the vote tally up to 2000.

What's Amaiur ?

7 seats out of nowhere ...

Not out of nowhere, no.

maybe the post-ETA party




(187 seats for PP after 60,7 % votes officially opened)

Results site says no seats in 2008.

Yeah, of nowhere because the izquierda abertzale was ilegal

Is the Amaiur victory related to the success of Bildu?

I love you Euskadi.

You bet. They're one and the same.

This sadly all proves that nobody on here reads my blog though!

Amaiur = Aralar + Bildu

Your guide is too long. :(

PSOE drops to just 109 seats ... :P

67% in now. Looking pretty stable at ~187 to ~109. ~71% turnout.

more minutes pass, more PP win. Strange...it's seems than urban votes goes to PP (urban votes are always the last opened)

Turnout now approaching 72%, for a loss of 2%.

Los españoles nos hemos vuelto gilipollas.

But should you make municipal maps of the more interesting provinces, I want to see them. :)

Euskadi, 91% reporting

AMAIUR   254.944   23,77%   6                  
EAJ-PNV   292.032   27,22%   5
PSE-EE (PSOE)   234.322   21,84%   4
PP   192.377   17,93%   3   

If you could know how much I feel alone and strange before founding this site. Alone me and my love for electoral maps

leftists, rightists, libertarian and anothers, we are united by this passion ;)

If Sevilla could just go to the PP and Barcelona to the CiU, the map would look great ... !

:)

Looks like polls were right after all...

The PP is nearly doing better than the PSC in Lleida and Girona, somebody get me out of this nightmare!

you are democrat in idaho ? Must be hard !^^

This is why you guys should all take more of an interest in economics. Economics dominates politics, election-wise.

With that being said, I'm going to say the opposite of what I said with Italy, because I want to look smart it's what I think: this could end up being good news, even if you oppose PP. Why? Because your bets are hedged. The PP will have a strong majority & mandate to do everything asked of it by the EU. Germany will not be able to say Spain did not put forward a strong effort, the ECB will not be able to say Spain did not try to reform itself. If the EU/ECB still refuses to help Spain after that, then we'll know who to blame. Second, if PP is successful, then the Spanish economy recovers and things turn around, which is good for Spain. If PP fails, PP will be discredited. Either way, it's a win/win. The only wild card is that the next elections may not get held for 4 years, so they will have a good amount of leeway to perform until we can judge their record.

Of course we can! We must never let facts intrude upon our worldview. Rajoy.

WHAT?

Oh, and it seems that Zapatero'08 will have more votes than Rajoy'12 :)

It's like their reluctant to add those last two precincts or so missing in Alava, just so no province is in completely. They've been at 99.4% counting for quite a while.

As in, clean. Tidy. Of course, that one last plodge of red in Sevilla must (and will, safe to say now) remain. Barcelona might happen yet, I suppose, depending where the final precincts are.

the map is dirty, only sevilla and barcelona are clean.

No, Euskadi is clean as well. They remain the best region in the country, as always.

This. Is. About. Aesthetics.

Meanwhile in hell, the generalissimo is celebrating.

Alava wholly in now.

PP 27.2, PSOE 23.4, Amaiur 19.1, PNV 18.9. Seat each.

Would be the same with Ste Lague or Hare.

PP wins 22 municipalities, PNV 19, Amaiur 10. PSOE none.
Lots of tiny mountain villages for the Basque parties, obviously, but PSOE aren't overperforming that much in the main city of Gasteiz - two points, just like PP.

I'm not sure he's content with the current official policies of the PP, though. ;)

Yes, you're probably right. Those people are just chickens who are afraid to bring back garrote vil.

Any chance of the Greens getting a seat, or is that impossible at this point?

Anyway, in a light of recent weeks... are Poles the only ones in Europe who doesn't wish to topple an incumbent government?

I feel bizarre.

Does Compromis count? I suppose the Valencian regionalists are the main partner in the alliance, but the Greens are a member...

That's because you are. ^-^

What an awful day for Spain. Julio, I feel your pain.


Well, at least people will have no one to blame but themselves once Rajoy sends the country back to the Stone Age.

results for country and provinces :


PAYS BASQUE :

AMAIUR 23.93% (+24)
PNV 27.39% (=)
PSOE 21.60% (-18)
PP 17.95% (-0.5)
IU 3.69% (-1)


CATALOGNE :

CIU 29.48% (+8.5)
PSOE 26.63% (-19)
PP 20.62% (+4)
ICV 8.06% (+3)
ERC 7.10% (-1)
PxC 1.74% (+2)


ANDALOUSIE :

PP 45.77% (+7.5)
PSOE 36.29% (-15.5)
IU 8.25% (+3)
UPD 4.83% (+4)
PA 1.79% (+2)




ESPAGNE :


PP 44.45% (+4.5)
PSOE 28.66% (-15)
IU 6.99% (+3)
UPD 4.78% (+3.5)
CIU 4.27% (+1)
AMAIUR 1.48% (+1.5)
PNV 1.44% (=)
ESQ. 1.08% (+1)
BNG 0.63% (=)
CC 0.41% (=)
COMPROMIS 0.55% (+0.5)
FAC 0.43% (+0.5)
GBAI 0.19%
EQUO 0.87%
PACMA 0.42%
Eb 0.41%
PA 0.31%
PxC 0.25%
PRC 0.18%
PUM+J 0.11%
PCPE 0.11%
PIRATA 0.11%
ANTICAPITAL. 0.10%



http://www.abc.es/elecciones/20n-2011/resultados/ (http://www.abc.es/elecciones/20n-2011/resultados/)

Quien tiene una carta de elecciones? Dice en espanol, por favor, quiero practicar.

Under 30% in what is (outside certain places) as pure a two-party system as can be found? That's... absolutely terrible.

Not under 30% outside those certain places though. :P

I like Rubalcaba, but I think that this is more a defeat of ZP than a Rajoy win. I can see Rubalcaba winning in 2016, even if economics recover enough. I'd have voted for PSOE only in small provinces, but in anothers I'd support IU in big places and Amaiur in Basque Country and Navarre.

Oh, sure. You know what I mean though. :P

The United States' two-party system includes all very certain places.

So the second wholly-in province is La Rioja. Must be something in the Ebro's water.

PP 54.7 (+5.2) 3 (+1)
PSOE 31.1 (-12.5) 1 (-1)
6% for UPyD, 4.6% for IU. Would be 3-1 under Ste Lague, 2-1-1 under Largest Remainder.

You don't count.

The US has one of the most ed up political systems in the world.

I can see that Julio predictions for Madrid failed, PSOE ended being smashed. UPyD got enough votes from soft-right (Vargas Llosa endorsed it).  I'm surprised that Revilla is failing to get his seat in Cantabria. Cascos failed to make major inroads, as PP is winning Asturias and FAC has a small margin over IU.

Albacete

PP 55.1 (+7.7) 3 (+1)
PSOE 30.1 (-15.6) 1 (-1)
IU 6.2, UPyD 5.0

Why can't Spain be Tunisia? We'd be seeing huge IU and UPyD groups in the next Cortes.

Ahem.


Also, the EU undemocratically toppling a government is not exactly the same as this. ;)

What are the current national results?

http://www.generales2011.mir.es/99CG/DCG99999TO_L1.htm

Found it.
PP 186 (majority)
PSOE 110
CIU 16
IE 11
AMAIUR 7
UPyD 5
PNV 5
ESQUERRA 3
BNG 2
CC 2
COMPROMI S-Q 1
FAC 1
GBAI 1

ad in the Senate
PP 134 (majority)
PSOE 50
CIU 9
PSC (et al) 7
PNV 4
AMAIUR 3
CC 1

Two more and then I'll go to bed.

Castellón
PP 52.9 (+3.9)
PSOE 29.5 (-14.7)
which hilariously doesn't change the 3-2 seat distribution.

IU 5.3, UPyD 4.0, Compromis 4.0

which would actually result in the same seat distribution under Largest Remainder.

Palencia

PP 55.2 (+5.5)
PSOE 31.3 (-12.3)

Again, unchanged seat distribution as it's one of those interior threeseaters. IU 5.9, UPyD 4.4.

*weeps*

El Mundo's editor is ridiculous. GAAAH TEH SEPRATISTS TOOK TEH SEATS TEH ETA!!!!1 NATIONAL UNITY!!111

havn't read the page 26 of the thread ? :/

Euskadi, full results

AMAIUR   284.528   24,12%   6                  
EAJ-PNV   323.517   27,42%   5
PSE-EE (PSOE)   254.105   21,54%   4
PP   210.000   17,80%   3   

Wonderful!

In english

186 - Conservativ - PP
110 - Socialist - PSOE
16 - Catalonian Centre - CIU
11 - Leftists - IE/IU
7 - Basque Left - AMAIUR
5 - Liberal Left - UPyD
5 - Basque Right - PNV
3 - Catalonian Left - ESQUERRA
2 - Galacian - BNG
2 - Canarian - CC
1 - Asturian - FAC
2 - ?????

The PSC seems to be a Catalonian alliance

I can't make heads or tails of GBAI or the S-Q party

Gracias a Dios (that's "Thank God" in Spanish) for Teddy's translation.

I especially look forward to the reaction of Our Man in Ottawa.

Another dead-in-the-water moment for the European left. Bring on France and Germany!

I just returned from the PNV's headquarters!! Our results were good-at least from my point of view. We won in Euskadi and gained votes, yet we lost one seat (the one from Gipuzkoa, which has been very close) Fortunately, it seems that Geroa Bai will keep its seat.


Defining the PNV as "Right" is very misleading, even more when you label CiU as being "centrist". The PNV has a very wide electorate and politically is pretty much centrist, with its social-democratic and conservative wings. It's a socially moderate-to-liberal and fiscally moderate party. In fact, it's more liberal the CiU (Unió, the smallest party of the coalition, is a very conservative group)

The GBAI is basically the PNV (basque "right") here in Navarra. The PSC is the PSOE branch in Cataluña. The BNG is a Galician nationalist left-wing party. CC is more center-right, but hard to classify ideologically. Not as nationalistic as the others. FAC is the personal project of the conservative Francisco Alvarez Cascos, so the Asturian right. That "S-Q party" is actually a coalition between the Coalició Compromís, the Valencian nationalist left, and Equo, a watermelon party.

No, because I don't know how far back I'd have to go to find it. Page 26? 16? The national results should ideally appear every 2 pages. I did check page 27, which is how I found the link.

Rajoy still did worse than Aguirre in Madrid though.

The Cantabrian PP did a great job tying Revilla to Zapatero. It was a superb result for Diego, first time a party wins 4 seats.

UPyD got some support from the not so soft right too. For example, Jiménez Losantos said he'd vote for them and I know a few persons who generally vote UPN/PP who did the same, including my very conservative boyfriend. I think Diez benefited primarily from the PSOE implosion but to a smaller extent from the certainty of the PP majority.

I didn't want to vote for Rajoy unless absolutely necessary, but I can't stand Diez and the UPyD, so I ended up not voting for the Congress and voted DNE for the Senate as a protest vote. People like me could have delivered GBAI that escaño at the expenses of the UPN. As Rick Perry would say... ooops. They should have nominated Aguirre.

Welcome to the forum!

()

Whoa, pretty sweet to have Uxue Barkos keep her seat!

Scoopa looks the likely FAC voter...Epic fail...

FAC is a local Asturian party, it's not in the ballot in the rest of Spain. If I were an Asturian, I'd probably vote for the FAC as long as PP's victory wasn't in risk, but not because I particularly like Álvarez-Cascos, even though I reckon my dislike for Rajoy is larger - it'd be more of a protest vote. Why do you think I'm the likely FAC voter? I'm not even sure there's a likely FAC voter and you certainly wouldn't find one outside of Asturias and Álvarez-Cascos circle of friends.

What was an epic fail? The FAC's result? Meh. The FAC was just a tool for Álvarez-Cascos to wage his private war against the Asturian PP and to make himself the President of the Principado de Asturias. I wouldn't read too much in his national elections results.
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Thanks for the welcome, belgiansocialist.

Beautiful results. The wave of azul is just breathtaking.

Agreed but it would have been so much more satisfying if the victory was against Zapatero.

I'm just happy whenever Socialists lose

Let's not forget Italy as well.  :)

With a very unpopular Berlusconi officially out of power, don't bet against the Italian Left screwing up again.

You wish.

Time gentlemen, please.

Nominate Vendola. Please. Now that Berlusconi is gone, I'd really like our chances at another landslide.  ;)

We can take this to the Italy thread if you wish.

So I guess the results are 186 seats for PP and 164 for all other parties.  Are any of the other parties going to be allied with PP (at least for practical purposes)? 

I suppose it doesn't make much difference because in parliamentary systems, the majority can generally do what it wants and since they have over 175 seats, they can't be outvoted as long as they agree internally.

Maps of el mundo :


change 2008/2011

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SPAIN  2008

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SPAIN 2011

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Why is that part of the south so socialist?