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Title: English local elections 2011 Post by: Phony Moderate on April 04, 2011, 08:50:37 PM I don't think there's a thread on these yet so....
The rumour that has been doing the rounds in the last few hours is that the Lib Dems are not going to bother putting up candidates in hundreds of Tory-held seats. Not particularly suprising.... Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 04, 2011, 09:16:56 PM No, there is no such thread yet. So this shall be the official one.
Anyways, up this year are a third of seats in all of the MBC/MDC's and the UAs that go in thirds as well, most of the UAs that are based on large towns and which have all-out elections, and almost all District councils, including all that have all-out elections. There are also Mayoral elections in a couple of places. As a very quick overview (something better some other time), unless something extraordinary happens the natural order of things is going to return to Sheffield, which will get a lot of attention for obvious reasons, and also Newcastle. The minority Labour administration in Leeds will probably gain a majority, and if Labour has a very good night it is possible that Birmingham (always the biggest prize in municipal politics) will fall. The situation in the Districts is unusually fluid; the LibDem polling collapse and the possible (probable?) ending of their status as an anti-Tory vote-park in certain areas means that many Districts are essentially unpredictable, which may be fun. Meanwhile, yet another attempt to hit the reboot button in Stoke doth loom. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on April 04, 2011, 10:56:20 PM Quote from: Yougov Finally our polling (http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-localelections-290311.pdf) of English local election voting intentions earlier this month found support in those areas with local elections this year at: Con 34%(-4), Lab 38%(+16), Lib Dem 13%(-11) and others 15% (-1). A projection based on these figures for the Sun by Professor Colin Rallings at Plymouth university showed the Conservatives losing 1000 councillors and the Liberal Democrats losing 700. Obviously there are all sorts of complications for polling local elections, but these figures don't look too far from the truth. @C. Monty Burns I'm baffled by your political matrix and your apparent support for social democrats? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Phony Moderate on April 04, 2011, 10:59:59 PM I love blatant irony. ;)
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on April 04, 2011, 11:06:03 PM OIC.
So you are a lolbertarian? :) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Phony Moderate on April 05, 2011, 12:00:50 AM Something like that. :)
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on April 07, 2011, 02:33:44 PM As a very quick overview (something better some other time), unless something extraordinary happens the natural order of things is going to return to Sheffield, which will get a lot of attention for obvious reasons, and also Newcastle. I think the question in Sheffield is not whether Labour will regain control, but by how much, and whether the Lib Dems can hold their losses to the places they might have expected to lose if they had a bad year anyway or whether it'll be worse than that. If that Ashcroft poll from a few months ago showing a 17% LD to Lab swing in Hallam since May 2010 is actually accurate, applies to the council elections as well, and the swing is uniform across the constituency (three big assumptions there) then Labour would take Stannington and Crookes, and the Tories would probably regain a foothold on the Council in Dore & Totley. That's probably pretty much a worst-case scenario for the Lib Dems: losing Ecclesall or Fulwood is surely unthinkable. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 07, 2011, 03:54:33 PM Predictions? I'm not really 'up' on local politics, but i'll have a go.
Labour +900 Tory -400 Liberal -500 Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on April 08, 2011, 12:41:06 PM Predictions? I'm not really 'up' on local politics, but i'll have a go. Labour +900 Tory -400 Liberal -500 I know the media like to talk about the results in this way, but I don't think it's a very good one: it completely ignores the differences in size between the wards involved. Councillors in big Metropolitan Boroughs (Brum being the most extreme case) can represent three to four times as many voters as those in shire districts. It'd be more interesting to look at predictions for individual councils, but to do a good job probably needs local knowledge. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 08, 2011, 04:23:50 PM Very true. Using extreme examples to show up the general problem, West Somerset DC has only a few thousand more residents than the Sparkbrook ward in Birmingham. So, yeah. And the disparity has become more extreme since Durham went unitary.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Peter on April 13, 2011, 10:40:35 AM South Oxfordshire
ALL seats up for election (last election 2007) For those of you that don't know, I now live in a rural Oxfordshire village! Conservative - 38 LD - 6 Lab - 1 Others - 3 () Whilst the overall result should be little in doubt (CON hold), it will represent some of the probable national trends. Any Labour surge will be represented in Didcot (West of the council) - I would expect them to sweep 3 of the 4 wards. It will also be interesting to see what will happen in Thame which has traditionally been a LD v. Tory town. Also interesting to note that a few LD activists are fighting their wards as Independents here. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: afleitch on April 13, 2011, 12:46:20 PM Rallings and Thrasher have posted their 'national equivalent vote share' prediction for the locals.
In 2007 this was CON 40, LAB 26, LIB 24 They put this year (based on by-election results) at LAB 38, CON 34-38, LIB 16-22 Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: bullmoose88 on April 13, 2011, 12:58:19 PM Rallings and Thrasher have posted their 'national equivalent vote share' prediction for the locals. In 2007 this was CON 40, LAB 26, LIB 24 They put this year (based on by-election results) at LAB 38, CON 34-38, LIB 16-22 How many councillors/councils can Labour expect to get this time, now that theyre going to get a boost from being the opposition? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 13, 2011, 02:44:13 PM You have to take that on a case by case basis. I'm going to attempt a brief analysis council-by-council if I get the time.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 13, 2011, 03:03:02 PM Rallings and Thrasher have posted their 'national equivalent vote share' prediction for the locals. In 2007 this was CON 40, LAB 26, LIB 24 They put this year (based on by-election results) at LAB 38, CON 34-38, LIB 16-22 I can't see the Liberals hitting 22%... Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: joevsimp on April 13, 2011, 04:17:33 PM South Oxfordshire ALL seats up for election (last election 2007) For those of you that don't know, I now live in a rural Oxfordshire village! Conservative - 38 LD - 6 Lab - 1 Others - 3 Whilst the overall result should be little in doubt (CON hold), it will represent some of the probable national trends. Any Labour surge will be represented in Didcot (West of the council) - I would expect them to sweep 3 of the 4 wards. It will also be interesting to see what will happen in Thame which has traditionally been a LD v. Tory town. Also interesting to note that a few LD activists are fighting their wards as Independents here. Yay, another one, I've just moved to Didcot! From Brighton so a much less interesting election for me (I'll do my attempt at a bit of analysis there on Sunday if no-one beats me to it) As for South Ox, I really don't know much, but I can see Labour having a complete landslide of the seats in Didcot, but at the same time can see them losing out to the Tories in Ladygrove and All Saints, and possibly the independent candidate in Northbourne (who I'll be backing, not having any Green candidates to on that topic, there's a smattering of Greens elsewhere, but I can't really see them doing anything other than ensuring the LDs loose out Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on April 13, 2011, 06:24:48 PM Bolton. Currently Lab 30 C 21 LD 7+1 vacancy Astley Bridge First 1. Labour hold half the seats and need just one gain for an overall majority.
2007 results: () ASTLEY BRIDGE is normally a solid Conservative ward, but the sitting councillor has formed his own outfit called Astley Bridge First after being deselected. For what it's worth, my quiz team plays out of this ward's Conservative club. BRADSHAW, BROMLEY CROSS and HEATON WITH LOSTOCK are three of the safest Tory wards in the whole of Greater Manchester. In 2008 the Conservatives polled more than 70% in Heaton. SMITHILLS was the only ward the Lib Dems won last year, and that was a regain after their councillor defected to Labour. He ran for re-election and did well to take second place from the Conservatives. On the 2010 result it looks just about winnable for Labour but Labour have never won here and the ward has elected Lib Dems since about 1989. HALLIWELL, CROMPTON, TONGE WITH THE HAULGH, GREAT LEVER and RUMWORTH cover inner Bolton. Some of these wards had weird results in 2004 (the Lib Dems winning Crompton, the Tories winning seats in Great Lever) but Labour have reasserted their dominance as the Iraq war fades into the past. All these wards apart from Tonge have a significant Muslim population (particularly Rumworth). BREIGHTMET and LITTLE LEVER AND DARCY LEVER are basically white working-class areas. Breightmet has a nasty reputation but does have some nice bits in addition to the dodgy bits, while Little Lever used to be an urban district of its own. The Tories won both wards in 2008; last year Labour were well ahead in Breightmet but Little Lever was quite close, mainly because the defending Labour councillor stood as an independent and polled 17%. KEARSLEY was safe Labour in 2010 but in previous years was a Labour/LD marginal. In 2007 this ward had the closest result, the Lib Dems prevailing by 27 votes. FARNWORTH and its twin ward HARPER GREEN are very safe for Labour. HULTON is a divided ward between middle-class (and very Tory) Over Hulton and more working-class Deane on the outskirts of Bolton; on th 2007 results its looks winnable for Labour but it swung to the Conservatives last year as their re-elected councillor was also their general election candidate for Bolton South East. The two WESTHOUGHTON wards were three-way marginals even in 2010, with Labour gaining South from the Lib Dems and the Conservatives holding North. Anything could happen here. HORWICH AND BLACKROD has become a Tory/Labour marginal with a significant Lib Dem vote. Labour picked up the seat last year for the first time. Finally, HORWICH NORTH EAST was the shock result of the 2010 election. Despite the name this ward covers most of Horwich and is normally a Lib Dem banker with Labour running third, but 2010 saw a very even three-way split with Labour prevailing by 90 votes over the Lib Dems and the Tories just 183 votes further back. Both remaining Lib Dem seats are up as the two remaining councillors (who are husband and wife) are standing down. PREDICTIONS: Labour to gain Kearsley from the Lib Dems and Horwich/Blackrod and Westhoughton North from the Conservatives. Conservatives to regain Astley Bridge making the council Lab 33 C 20 LD 7. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: joevsimp on April 14, 2011, 02:10:01 PM Brighton and Hove
can't post links yet :( I'll upload my map once I can North Portslade, 1 Lab, 1 con South Portslade, as above Must win seats for labour, regaining the two seats lost in 2007 is a critical priority but shouldn't be too taxing. Hangleton and Knoll, 3 con Has been labour held recently, and is a major target for recovery, bpb reckons its heading for a split though, with Tories holding on to one seat. There is also a former Tory-independent in the running to complicate matters Wish 2 con Western Hove/Aldrington, reasonably safe, but could go to labour on a very bad night for the tories Westbourne, 2 con the eastern part of the pre '74 aldrington district, fairly safe, but has been designated a "cardboard " target by the greens (ie, one up from being paper candidates), they will probably only win if momentum catapaults them into a majority. Central Hove, 2 Con Like Westbourne, has been designated by Greens as having "cardboard" candidates, which means its less likely to fall this time as resources are ploughed into two unwinnable wards in the north of Caroline Lucas' constituency instead, still one to watch out for as the Lib Dem slump puts Labour in the running as well. Brunswick and Adilade, 1 LD, 1 ex-LD Apart from the two wards where they hold 1/3 seats, this is the top target for the greens, and even though the former ld cllr and two-time parliamentary candidate is standing, two relatively simple gains for the greens are the most likely outcome Goldsmid, 1 con 1 grn 1 lab The Greens’ first seat in hove is a prime target, second only to Preston Park, the greens should gain the remaining tory seat after their by election win two years ago, but Labour, could however, hold onto their seat Hove Park, formerly known as Stanford, 1 ind, 1 con the minority tory administration has been propped up by the independent cllr's vote since losing its majority in the private eye-induced Goldsmid by-election in 2009 (actually thats a lie, its been dependent on Labour sitting on their hands at times) ultra safe for the Tories, with normal service being restored by the independent cllr standing down Withdean, 3 con, Has been designated a target ward by the greens, purely for being in Caroline Lucas's constituency, but will stay blue till judgement day. Patcham and Hollingbury, 3 con As above but labour could pick up one seat out of three, something they'll probably need to do in order to come out on top if they can't turn back the green tide in the centre of the city. Hollingdean and Stanmer 3 lab Contains the Sussex University campus as well as estates like Coldean and the Bates estate. Likely gains by the Greens, but likely to split with at least one labour cllr holding on Preston Park, 1 Green, 2 Lab The greens gained a seat here in 2003, but failed to improve on it in 2007, historically a champagne socialist area, could go either way Saint Peter’s and North Laine, 3 green The first ward to fall to the Greens, recent by election was won on 60% of the vote Regency, 2 green Gained from the Lib Dems in 2007 but shouldn’t be too difficult for the greens to hold unless Labour really pull something out of the bag Hannover and Elm Grove, 3 green Second safest ward for the greens, large student population and also known as “muesli mountain” Queens Park, 3 grn There is a potential for Labour to regain some or all of the seats they lost in 2007, as this was a personal backlash against the ruling clique of the Labour administration. Contains the bulk of fabulous Kemptown, but also areas of council housing, as well as the job centre, police station and county court all next to eachother. East Brighton 3 Lab Should be safe, Tories and Greens might run have them close if they were still in power at westminster Moulsecoomb and Bevendean, 2 Lab, 1 Con Tories gained a seat in 2007, unlikely for them to gain other two, another “cardboard” for the Greens and could end up split three ways, three labour cllrs is most likely though Woodingdean, 2 con A separate town that has clear green space on all sides, any change would probably give the two tory candidates and the returning officer heart attacks Rottingdean Costal. 3 con As above but includes the marina and a bit of what should probably be in the East Brighton ward Phew. I think that the most likely outcome is a Baden-Wuttemburg scenario, but I have doubts about the local Labour party’s willingness to enter a green-led coalition. I’m not going to attempt a more in-depth prediction, Instead, I’ll provide a map of how things would probably look if the LDs crash out and the other three parties split equally, 18 seats each Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 14, 2011, 02:32:31 PM How are the Greens looking down in Brighton and Norwich? I know they'll probably lose their ward over the Mersey in Liverpool.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Serenity Now on April 15, 2011, 04:22:43 AM Brighton and Hove can't post links yet :( I'll upload my map once I can North Portslade, 1 Lab, 1 con South Portslade, as above Must win seats for labour, regaining the two seats lost in 2007 is a critical priority but shouldn't be too taxing. Hangleton and Knoll, 3 con Has been labour held recently, and is a major target for recovery, bpb reckons its heading for a split though, with Tories holding on to one seat. There is also a former Tory-independent in the running to complicate matters Wish 2 con Western Hove/Aldrington, reasonably safe, but could go to labour on a very bad night for the tories Westbourne, 2 con the eastern part of the pre '74 aldrington district, fairly safe, but has been designated a "cardboard " target by the greens (ie, one up from being paper candidates), they will probably only win if momentum catapaults them into a majority. Central Hove, 2 Con Like Westbourne, has been designated by Greens as having "cardboard" candidates, which means its less likely to fall this time as resources are ploughed into two unwinnable wards in the north of Caroline Lucas' constituency instead, still one to watch out for as the Lib Dem slump puts Labour in the running as well. Brunswick and Adilade, 1 LD, 1 ex-LD Apart from the two wards where they hold 1/3 seats, this is the top target for the greens, and even though the former ld cllr and two-time parliamentary candidate is standing, two relatively simple gains for the greens are the most likely outcome Goldsmid, 1 con 1 grn 1 lab The Greens’ first seat in hove is a prime target, second only to Preston Park, the greens should gain the remaining tory seat after their by election win two years ago, but Labour, could however, hold onto their seat Hove Park, formerly known as Stanford, 1 ind, 1 con the minority tory administration has been propped up by the independent cllr's vote since losing its majority in the private eye-induced Goldsmid by-election in 2009 (actually thats a lie, its been dependent on Labour sitting on their hands at times) ultra safe for the Tories, with normal service being restored by the independent cllr standing down Withdean, 3 con, Has been designated a target ward by the greens, purely for being in Caroline Lucas's constituency, but will stay blue till judgement day. Patcham and Hollingbury, 3 con As above but labour could pick up one seat out of three, something they'll probably need to do in order to come out on top if they can't turn back the green tide in the centre of the city. Hollingdean and Stanmer 3 lab Contains the Sussex University campus as well as estates like Coldean and the Bates estate. Likely gains by the Greens, but likely to split with at least one labour cllr holding on Preston Park, 1 Green, 2 Lab The greens gained a seat here in 2003, but failed to improve on it in 2007, historically a champagne socialist area, could go either way Saint Peter’s and North Laine, 3 green The first ward to fall to the Greens, recent by election was won on 60% of the vote Regency, 2 green Gained from the Lib Dems in 2007 but shouldn’t be too difficult for the greens to hold unless Labour really pull something out of the bag Hannover and Elm Grove, 3 green Second safest ward for the greens, large student population and also known as “muesli mountain” Queens Park, 3 grn There is a potential for Labour to regain some or all of the seats they lost in 2007, as this was a personal backlash against the ruling clique of the Labour administration. Contains the bulk of fabulous Kemptown, but also areas of council housing, as well as the job centre, police station and county court all next to eachother. East Brighton 3 Lab Should be safe, Tories and Greens might run have them close if they were still in power at westminster Moulsecoomb and Bevendean, 2 Lab, 1 Con Tories gained a seat in 2007, unlikely for them to gain other two, another “cardboard” for the Greens and could end up split three ways, three labour cllrs is most likely though Woodingdean, 2 con A separate town that has clear green space on all sides, any change would probably give the two tory candidates and the returning officer heart attacks Rottingdean Costal. 3 con As above but includes the marina and a bit of what should probably be in the East Brighton ward Phew. I think that the most likely outcome is a Baden-Wuttemburg scenario, but I have doubts about the local Labour party’s willingness to enter a green-led coalition. I’m not going to attempt a more in-depth prediction, Instead, I’ll provide a map of how things would probably look if the LDs crash out and the other three parties split equally, 18 seats each Welcome to the forum joevsimp! I'm also from Brighton. Incidentally, here's a map I made of the 2007 results for Brighton and Hove: () (http://www.flickr.com/photos/53915270@N03/5568924513/) Brighton and Hove 2007 (http://www.flickr.com/photos/53915270@N03/5568924513/) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on April 15, 2011, 03:33:46 PM Sheffield: map from 2007 on Andrew Teale's website (http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/map/2007/51/0/). In 2010 Labour won Central, East Ecclesfield, Gleadless Valley and Hillsborough in addition to what they won in 2007, with other wards as before.
The Council is Lib Dem 41, Labour 40, Green 2, Ind (elected as LD) 1, with a minority Lib Dem administration. One councillor (in Walkley) defected from LD to Lab after the coalition was formed last year. Historically Sheffield was strongly Labour with a small Tory presence in the western suburbs and some Liberals/Lib Dems in the northern parishes added to the city in 1974. In the 1990s the Tories collapsed (and have never recovered) and Labour had some local problems, both of which let the Lib Dems in, and the city went yellow in 1999. Labour ran it again from 2002 to 2008 but a combination of national and local (particularly affecting Hillsborough) issues saw the Lib Dems take it back in 2008, although their majority didn't last long. There are 28 wards, each with three councillors. Each ward has one seat (the one last contested in 2007) up for election this year, for a four-year term. (This is the usual system in Metropolitan Boroughs.) The following 11 wards, all in the east and north of the city, have never elected a non-Labour councillor under the current boundaries: Arbourthorne, Beighton, Birley, Burngreave, Darnall, Firth Park, Manor Castle, Richmond, Shiregreen & Brightside, Southey, Woodhouse. This isn't likely to change this year; any interest in these wards will probably be in who comes second; maybe TUSC in Burngreave (where their candidate has done so in the past under various labels). Mosborough, also in the east, would be in the previous list if the Lib Dems hadn't won it in 2008, and I doubt they'll repeat that this year. That's all the wards Labour are defending. I'd group the remaining, mostly western, wards as follows: Northern parishes: East Ecclesfield, Stocksbridge & Upper Don, West Ecclesfield and to some extent Stannington. These cover the parishes of Stocksbridge, Ecclesfield and Bradfield added to Sheffield in 1974, and have been generally Lib Dem. East Ecclesfield contains an area outside Ecclesfield parish which is more like the Labour wards to the south, and that partially explains Labour winning it in 2010. The Lib Dem vote in these wards is more independent of the national party than it is further south (they have never really looked like winning a parliamentary seat on the basis of it, in spite of the area being more than half of a constituency) so might be a bit more robust: I'm guessing that Labour will repeat their 2010 East Ecclesfield gain but the Lib Dems will hold the other seats. Inner west: Broomhill, Nether Edge, Walkley. The Lib Dems are defending all of these, and the national picture makes them look vulnerable. Broomhill in particular, which probably looked the safest of the three before last year, is dominated by the University and hospitals and has a lot of students. There could be a strong Green challenge in Broomhill, but I think the other two will go Labour. Hallam: Crookes, Dore & Totley, Ecclesall, Fulwood, Stannington, grouped because they're the wards in Clegg's seat (though Stannington doesn't really belong). The inner parts of Crookes, Ecclesall and Fulwood have a lot in common with the inner west above; the further out parts are wealthy suburbs, and the whole area is generally well-off. Dore & Totley is the most likely area in Sheffield to vote Tory, but hasn't done so in a Council election since 2004, hence the current lack of Tory representation on the Council. I'm expecting big anti-Clegg swings to Labour and the Greens, especially in the inner areas, but they'd have to be immense to let any seats change hands (and an LD to Lab swing in Dore just gives the Tories the seat anyway) so I'm guessing all seats will be Lib Dem holds. Beauchief & Greenhill and Graves Park in the south of the city. These are mostly fairly middle class suburbs, but the former also includes some rather grim estates on the southern fringe of the city (Lowedges and Batemoor). Both are Lib Dem and have always been so under current boundaries. Beauchief & Greenhill looks quite vulnerable and Graves Park less so, and I'm guessing the former will fall to Labour but the latter will stay yellow. Hillsborough is a bit like the inner west but is more Labour. The Labour losses here in 2007 and 2008 had a lot to do with an unpopular school closure (note how much worse they did compared with previous years than anywhere else in the city). I think that issue has faded a little and I'm expecting a Labour gain. Gleadless Valley is a natural marginal, made up of a mix of inner west type areas like Meersbrook and 1960s estates like Hemsworth and Herdings, and has generally been very close and gone to whichever party wins more wards city-wide. Again, I'd expect a Labour gain. Central has a weird history: 2004 (3 seats up) Lab/Green/LD elected, 2006 Green gain from LD (LD third), 2007 Green hold (LD third), 2008 Green gain from Lab (LD third), 2010 Lab gain from Green (LD second, Green third). I think the General Election had something to do with 2010, and their defending councillor is quite well known, so the Greens may have a chance of holding on, but they never won it by very much even when Labour were nationally unpopular, so I'm leaning towards a Labour gain here too. That (giving the Greens Broomhill but Labour Central) would give, for the seats contested this year, Labour 19 (up 7), Lib Dem 8 (down 7), Green 1 (no change); the Council would be Lab 47, Lib Dem 34, Green 2, Ind 1. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 15, 2011, 04:05:16 PM Historically Sheffield was strongly Labour with a small Tory presence in the western suburbs and some Liberals/Lib Dems in the northern parishes added to the city in 1974. Unless my memory is playing tricks it was the first big city to have a Labour majority on the council; partly because of its economic structure (domination by the steel industry meaning greater polarisation and, also, an unusually homogeneous working class with strong unions with a reputation for militancy) but also, IIRC, because the Liberals were very weak in the city. There was also an attempt to take over city institutions by some working class radical group in the nineteenth century; the Sheffield Democrats, or something like that. Quote The Lib Dem vote in these wards is more independent of the national party than it is further south (they have never really looked like winning a parliamentary seat on the basis of it, in spite of the area being more than half of a constituency) so might be a bit more robust: I'm guessing that Labour will repeat their 2010 East Ecclesfield gain but the Lib Dems will hold the other seats. They came very close to beating Martin Flannery in the re-drawn Sheffield Hillsborough in '83, but then he made Tony Benn look like David Owen. Quote Hillsborough is a bit like the inner west but is more Labour. The Labour losses here in 2007 and 2008 had a lot to do with an unpopular school closure (note how much worse they did compared with previous years than anywhere else in the city). I think that issue has faded a little and I'm expecting a Labour gain. Ah; I did wonder about that at the time. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 15, 2011, 04:06:31 PM I wonder what the wards which make up the Hallam constituency will look like...
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 15, 2011, 04:11:29 PM I wonder what the wards which make up the Hallam constituency will look like... Going to be hard to attack them from the left, unfortunately. Sheffield is a very polarised city (always has been) and Hallam is the posh bit. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on April 16, 2011, 02:08:37 PM Quote The Lib Dem vote in these wards is more independent of the national party than it is further south (they have never really looked like winning a parliamentary seat on the basis of it, in spite of the area being more than half of a constituency) so might be a bit more robust: I'm guessing that Labour will repeat their 2010 East Ecclesfield gain but the Lib Dems will hold the other seats. They came very close to beating Martin Flannery in the re-drawn Sheffield Hillsborough in '83, but then he made Tony Benn look like David Owen. Yes, I'd forgotten that, but it was against Labour in 1983, and they still couldn't win. They didn't even try in Penistone & Stocksbridge last year as far as I could tell, even though they've been known to top the poll within its boundaries in local elections in spite of their uselessness in Barnsley borough. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 16, 2011, 02:14:15 PM Yes, I'd forgotten that, but it was against Labour in 1983, and they still couldn't win. And against a Labour candidate as generically 'unelectable' as Flannery as well. Quote They didn't even try in Penistone & Stocksbridge last year as far as I could tell, even though they've been known to top the poll within its boundaries in local elections in spite of their uselessness in Barnsley borough. That came as a mild surprise to me at the time. Anyway, places like that may be interesting over the next few years. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on April 16, 2011, 02:41:09 PM I wonder what the wards which make up the Hallam constituency will look like... Here are their results since 2006, main four parties only, rounded to the nearest percentage point, via Jonathan Harston's website http://mdfs.net/Docs/Sheffield/ Crookes: 2010 LD 52%, Lab 20%, Con 17%, Green 10% 2008 LD 53%, Con 21%, Green 14%, Lab 13% 2007 LD 54%, Con 17%, Lab 17%, Green 12% 2006 LD 49%, Con 19%, Lab 16%, Green 14% Dore & Totley: 2010 LD 50%, Con 34%, Lab 9%, Green 3% 2008 LD 49%, Con 44%, Lab 4%, Green 3% 2007 LD 52%, Con 36%, Lab 6%, Green 4% 2006 LD 53%, Con 37%, Lab 4%, Green 4% Ecclesall: 2010 LD 58%, Con 19%, Lab 13%, Green 8% 2008 LD 58%, Con 24%, Green 9%, Lab 8% 2007 LD 54%, Con 26%, Green 11%, Lab 10% 2006 LD 53%, Con 25%, Green 11%, Lab 8% Fulwood: 2010 LD 55%, Con 24%, Lab 13%, Green 7% 2008 LD 55%, Con 27%, Lab 8%, Green 7% 2007 LD 56%, Con 28%, Lab 7%, Green 7% 2006 LD 47%, Con 34%, Green 8%, Lab 8% Stannington: 2010 LD 47%, Lab 23%, Con 18%, Green 6% 2008 LD 47%, Lab 23%, Con 16%, Green 6% 2007 LD 49%, Lab 26%, Con 16%, Green 9% 2007 LD 47%, Lab 27%, Con 16%, Green 10% So: Dore & Totley is the most marginal, but that's because it's the most Tory, Stannington is on paper the most vulnerable to Labour but I'd expect a smaller swing there (less of a university and NHS vote). I can't rule out the Lib Dems losing something in Hallam - a lot of people have gone off Clegg since last May - but like I said the swings needed are huge; also the LD defectors really need to get behind one opponent rather than splitting between Labour and the Greens, and I doubt that'll happen. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on April 17, 2011, 03:30:02 AM OK, let's have a look at some other councils.
Rotherham: Andrew Teale's 2007 map (http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/map/2007/50/0/). In 2010 Labour won both Wales and Maltby which they'd lost in 2007. This is not the most exciting council: the current composition is Lab 50 Con 10 BNP 1 Ind 2 (one elected as BNP). The only wards which don't have three Labour councillors are: Two wards with three Tories: Sitwell (the southern parts of Rotherham proper around Moorgate, and a neighbouring rural area around Upper Whiston) and Hellaby (a strange ward which contains bits of Wickersley, Bramley and Maltby and some areas in between them). Wales (sic) (the southernmost part of the borough, including the villages of Wales, Kiveton Park and Harthill - like much of the south of the borough it's a mix of mining and commuter villages), which voted Tory in 2007 and 2008 (leading to "Tories win Wales" headline potential) but Labour in 2010. Anston & Woodsetts (next to Wales and not dissimilar), which voted Labour in 2007 and 2010 but Tory in 2008. Wickersley (which actually covers only the northern parts of both Wickersley and neighbouring Bramley), which also voted Labour in 2007 and 2010 but Tory in 2008. Maltby (which covers the eastern and central parts of Maltby town plus a rural area to the south), which voted for an independent in 2007, BNP in 2008 (in a ridiculous election result where there were lots of competitive independents and the BNP winner got only 23%; amusingly the UKIP candidate was called Gordon Brown and came last) and Labour 2010. Brinsworth & Catcliffe (fairly self-explanatory, unlike most Rotherham ward names) which voted Labour in 2007 and 2010 but BNP in 2008. The BNP councillor has since had an "interesting" career: he defected from the BNP to something called the England First Party (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_First_Party) and from them to the National Front. He then tried to defect back to England First, allegedly because he hadn't realised the NF were racists (http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/national_front_councillor_leaves_party_after_fall_out_1_851948) (!), but England First wouldn't have him back, and he now sits as an independent. Anyway, I'd expect a repeat of the 2010 result: Labour win everywhere except Sitwell and Hellaby. The "John Lilburne Democratic Party" is standing in Rotherham East ward; Google suggests they have an "interesting" history too. The Lib Dems only have four candidates, significantly outnumbered by UKIP. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on April 17, 2011, 04:30:55 AM Doncaster: Andrew Teale's 2007 map (http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/map/2007/49/0/). In 2010 Labour did very well, winning everywhere but the Tory strongholds of Sprotborough, Torne Valley and Finningley and the Lib Dem stronghold of Bessacarr & Cantley.
The council is Lab 34, LD 10, Con 9, Community Group 3, Ind 7. This might suggest that Labour has control, but unfortunately (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Davies_%28politician%29) the Council has an elected mayor, who is an English Democrat. Doncaster borough has something of a history in recent years of corruption ("Donnygate") and incompetence, which is presumably why they went down the elected mayor road, not that it seems to have done any good. (See also Stoke.) The Tories' have all three councillors in the three strongholds mentioned above. The Lib Dems only won one ward last year but have councillors from 2007 and 2008 in several others; they're defending Mexborough, Town Moor, Wheatley and the mouthful that is "Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall & Barnby Dun" this year. I'd guess that they'll find these defences difficult; e.g. Mexborough is not the sort of place that's going to appreciate the current Government. The Community Group's stronghold is Thorne in the east of the borough; they also have one councillor in Central via a defection from Labour (the defector is defending his seat this year). They did badly everywhere they stood last year, losing one of their Thorne seats to Labour and coming fifth in the process. The English Democrats have no councillors. (There's only been one Council election since Davies was elected mayor, and that was on General Election day.) They're standing in the majority of the wards outside the main core of Doncaster town; I'd guess they will have some populist appeal but hopefully they won't actually win anywhere. Tentative prediction: Lab 15, Con 3, LD 2, Ind 1. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: minionofmidas on April 17, 2011, 07:48:04 AM Catcliffe (fairly self-explanatory) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on April 17, 2011, 08:27:11 AM The English Democrats have no councillors. (There's only been one Council election since Davies was elected mayor, and that was on General Election day.) They're standing in the majority of the wards outside the main core of Doncaster town; I'd guess they will have some populist appeal but hopefully they won't actually win anywhere. The only ward where the English Democrats had any kind of track record before Davies was elected mayor was the Tory stronghold of Finningley, where Davies was the candidate. Between 2006 and 2008 he consistently finished second in that ward with just over 20%. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 18, 2011, 09:18:05 AM Yeah, the LibDem campaign in Liverpool has turned into a trainwreck (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13118745).
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 18, 2011, 09:26:19 AM Yeah, the LibDem campaign in Liverpool has turned into a trainwreck (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13118745). So it's gone from wipe-out standard to... what? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on April 18, 2011, 10:25:36 AM Good riddance from what I've heard of the Liverpool Lib Dems.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 18, 2011, 10:43:59 AM Good riddance from what I've heard of the Liverpool Lib Dems. Bradley has done better for the people of Liverpool in opposition, with his opposition to the Coalition, than he ever did as council leader. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 18, 2011, 10:59:58 AM Labour's second broadcast
http://vimeo.com/22552966 Your voice in tough times (Part 2) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on April 18, 2011, 01:16:26 PM The English Democrats have no councillors. (There's only been one Council election since Davies was elected mayor, and that was on General Election day.) They're standing in the majority of the wards outside the main core of Doncaster town; I'd guess they will have some populist appeal but hopefully they won't actually win anywhere. The only ward where the English Democrats had any kind of track record before Davies was elected mayor was the Tory stronghold of Finningley, where Davies was the candidate. Between 2006 and 2008 he consistently finished second in that ward with just over 20%. Yep, and last year they didn't really come close to winning anywhere, though they had lots of 20%ish results. The closest was Wheatley, where there was no Tory candidate; I'd guess Bentley might be their best result this year, for the same reason. For those who aren't familiar with Davies, here's my favourite quote (taken slightly out of context): Quote The one thing to be said about the Taliban is that they do have an ordered society of some sort... and when you're in a hole, stop digging:Quote The point I was making was that even a regime as hideous as the Taliban at least appear to have sort of decent sort of family affairs. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Davies_%28politician%29Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on April 18, 2011, 01:23:58 PM Yeah, the LibDem campaign in Liverpool has turned into a trainwreck (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13118745). So it's gone from wipe-out standard to... what? Is wipe-out (in the sense of not winning any of the seats up this year) actually likely? I see their votes in some of their best wards fell dramatically last year and they don't seem so safe now, but what about Woolton? If Bradley actually did what he's been accused of doing it seems remarkably stupid. His statement is on the Liverpool Echo site (http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/liverpool-news/local-news/2011/04/18/warren-bradley-resigns-as-leader-of-liverpool-city-council-liberal-democrat-group-100252-28539795/). Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 18, 2011, 01:25:41 PM Yeah, the LibDem campaign in Liverpool has turned into a trainwreck (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13118745). So it's gone from wipe-out standard to... what? Is wipe-out (in the sense of not winning any of the seats up this year) actually likely? I see their votes in some of their best wards fell dramatically last year and they don't seem so safe now, but what about Woolton? If Bradley actually did what he's been accused of doing it seems remarkably stupid. His statement is on the Liverpool Echo site (http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/liverpool-news/local-news/2011/04/18/warren-bradley-resigns-as-leader-of-liverpool-city-council-liberal-democrat-group-100252-28539795/). Is it coincidence that Clegg condemned his email a few days ago? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 19, 2011, 08:14:35 PM I've decided to do this region by region and so on. There might be some minor errors in terms of seats up for various reasons; corrections welcome. First, as usual, comes the North East...
=== Metropolitan Boroughs Newcastle upon Tyne Current composition: LDem 42, Labour 33, Ind 2 Seats up: LDem 17, Labour 9, Ind 1 Prediction: Labour majority Comment: Labour need to gain six seats in order to take control. Labour don't actually need to win any more wards than they did in 2010 in order to win back a majority in the city of T. Dan Smith, and, given the unpopularity of the government in the North East and the results in 2010, ought to be able to do so. Newcastle, incidentally, was one of Labour's strongest cities in England at the last General Election. North Tyneside Current composition: Labour 29, Con 24, LDem 7 Seats up: Con 10, Labour 8, LDem 2 Prediction: Labour majority Comment: Labour need two seats in order to win a majority here, which shouldn't be difficult. A majority on the council won't be the same thing as control though; North Tyneside has an elected Mayor and Labour will have to wait until 2013 to pick that up. South Tyneside Current composition: Labour 36, Ind/Oth. 14, Con 2, LDem 2 Seats up: Labour 12, Ind 3, Oth. 1, Con 1, LDem 1 Prediction: Labour majority Comment: Might be interesting to see how well the Indies hold up in 'normal' low turnout circumstances, but that's about it. Gateshead Current composition: Labour 45, LDem 20, Lib 1 Seats up: Labour 14, LDem 8 Prediction: Labour majority Comment: Always Labour since reorganisation (and parts have been run by Labour without a break since the 1920s), the presence of Whickham has given a core around which a respectable opposition group can be (and has) built. Will that hold up with things as they are? Sunderland Current composition: Labour 52, Con 18, Ind 4, LDem 1 Seats up: Labour 17, Con 7, Ind 1 Prediction: Labour majority Comment: the only question is whether Labour can pull off a sweep; just about possible, but unlikely given the existence of Fulwell. Tories have a chance of saving some of their other seats provided they've learned the lessons of their overstretch-related humiliation in 2010. Unitary Authorities Darlington Current composition: Labour 29, Con 18, LDem 6 Seats up: whole council Prediction: Labour majority Comment: Darlo has never been as solidly Labour as the rest of County Durham, but social polarisation and solid organisation meant that the Party held on here in 2007 despite coming 10pts behind the Tories across the borough. They'll win again this year and will make gains as well. Stockton on Tees Current composition: Labour 22, Ind 16, Con 13, LDem 5 Seats up: whole council Prediction: Uncertain Comments: Labour need to make seven gains to take control. Running through the figures from last time there are about five possibilities that look to be relatively straightforward, after which things get complicated. The mass of suburbs on the Yorkshire side of the Tees are dominated by two separate groups of 'Independents'; unless swings elsewhere are massive they need to make gains there. Predicting how well organised 'independents' will do without local knowledge is tricky, so I'll pass. Anyway, the council currently has an unusual leadership arrangement; a Labour/Tory coalition with a Tory as council leader (despite having less seats). Hartlepool Current composition: Labour 24, Ind 14, LDem 5, Con 4 Seats up: Labour 6, Ind 6, LDem 2, Con 1, Vacant 1 Prediction: Labour majority Comments: Monkeytown has an Independent Mayor of course; Stuart Drummond (née H'Angus The Monkey). Labour took back a majority on the council chamber in 2010 and will make further gains this year. Redcar & Cleveland Current composition: Labour 25, LDem 16, Con 11, Ind 7 Seats up: whole council Prediction: Labour majority Comments: This should be fairly straightforward; Labour need to gain five seats to gain a majority, and ought to make it easily enough with things as they are. The problem is that things have changed a great deal since 2007; the LibDems suddenly started doing very well in local by-elections, the Corus works was mothballed and one of the stranger Labour losses of the last General Election happened. I tend to think that most of the factors that made that possible no longer apply (especially given that the LibDems are clearly no longer the inoffensive party of broadly centrist populist protest that many here will have assumed just a year ago) and so we'll see the sort of result we would have anyway (more or less). I may well be wrong and am happy to acknowledge as much. Middlesbrough Current composition: Labour 27, Ind 13, Con 6, Green 1, LDem 1 Seats up: whole council Prediction: Labour majority Comment: It's hard to imagine that Labour majority not growing, though by how much I've no idea given the existence of seemingly entrenched Independents. Robocop is also up for re-election; he waltzed to re-election in 2007 and presumably will do again, unless his popularity has taken a knock and there's a serious campaign being run against him. The LibDems won five seats in 2007; they seem to have scattered to the winds. Districts There are no Districts in the North East. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on April 19, 2011, 11:02:18 PM Be good if it's a clean sweep for Labour here; I'll be doing my bit to swing Redcar & Cleveland.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: joevsimp on April 20, 2011, 01:36:05 AM Middlesbrough Current composition: Labour 27, Ind 13, Con 6, Green 1, LDem 1 Seats up: whole council Prediction: Labour majority Comment: It's hard to imagine that Labour majority not growing, though by how much I've no idea given the existence of seemingly entrenched Independents. Robocop is also up for re-election; he waltzed to re-election in 2007 and presumably will do again, unless his popularity has taken a knock and there's a serious campaign being run against him. The LibDems won five seats in 2007; they seem to have scattered to the winds. Districts There are no Districts in the North East. Didn't know Middlesborough had a Green cllr, was that a by election or a defection cos I'm sure I'd remember something like that happening Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on April 20, 2011, 03:19:06 AM Defection from the Lib Dems.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: joevsimp on April 20, 2011, 01:32:03 PM Defection from the Lib Dems. fair enough, any chance of holding the seat, or will Labour gain it? there aren't actually too many of them about are there? a couple in Aberdeenshire and a one more in Mid Suffolk Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on April 20, 2011, 01:55:40 PM Newcastle upon Tyne Current composition: LDem 42, Labour 33, Ind 2 Seats up: LDem 17, Labour 9, Ind 1 Prediction: Labour majority Comment: Labour need to gain six seats in order to take control. Labour don't actually need to win any more wards than they did in 2010 in order to win back a majority in the city of T. Dan Smith, and, given the unpopularity of the government in the North East and the results in 2010, ought to be able to do so. Newcastle, incidentally, was one of Labour's strongest cities in England at the last General Election. ... in spite of some rather fanciful predictions before the election that all three seats might go yellow. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 20, 2011, 02:09:29 PM Newcastle upon Tyne Current composition: LDem 42, Labour 33, Ind 2 Seats up: LDem 17, Labour 9, Ind 1 Prediction: Labour majority Comment: Labour need to gain six seats in order to take control. Labour don't actually need to win any more wards than they did in 2010 in order to win back a majority in the city of T. Dan Smith, and, given the unpopularity of the government in the North East and the results in 2010, ought to be able to do so. Newcastle, incidentally, was one of Labour's strongest cities in England at the last General Election. ... in spite of some rather fanciful predictions before the election that all three seats might go yellow. Well, Cleggmania and all that... Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Phony Moderate on April 20, 2011, 02:18:57 PM "I believe the way things are, is not the way things have to be."
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on April 20, 2011, 09:33:03 PM Defection from the Lib Dems. fair enough, any chance of holding the seat, or will Labour gain it? there aren't actually too many of them about are there? a couple in Aberdeenshire and a one more in Mid Suffolk I actually think he might have a fair chance to hold on to it. Lib Dems aren't standing any candidates in the ward, despite them winning it in 2003 & 2007 at roughly a 2:1 vote over Labour. Ideal conditions for him to win, considering how lacklustre the Greens are here in the N/E. Are you speaking specifically about Lib Dem > Green defections, or Green councillors total? Not sure about the former, but you can see the latter here (http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/uklocalgov/makeup.htm). Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on April 21, 2011, 05:40:12 PM Yougov have just published (http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-yougov-aggregatedatamarch2011-210411.pdf) their March aggregated VI figures, with a sample of over 50k, so it should be safer than usual to use their cross-breaks to measure the varying regional swings with respect to the upcoming locals:
() Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 21, 2011, 05:47:52 PM Yougov have just published (http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-yougov-aggregatedatamarch2011-210411.pdf) their March aggregated VI figures, with a sample of over 50k, so it should be safer than usual to use their cross-breaks to measure the varying regional swings with respect to the upcoming locals: () What's with the relatively crap Labour showing in London? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on April 21, 2011, 05:52:51 PM Labour done fairly well in London last year, with a much lower swing against them compared to the rest of the country (2.5% compared to England's 5.6%). With that in mind, they've less to recover from.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 21, 2011, 05:59:09 PM Labour done fairly well in London last year, with a much lower swing against them compared to the rest of the country (2.5% compared to England's 5.6%). With that in mind, they've less to recover from. 42 - LD 37 - Con 12 - Lab Twickenham with those London swings. Now, if only... ;) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on April 22, 2011, 01:16:32 AM Applying those Yorkshire swings to Sheffield council wards (which is a dubious thing to do for a number of reasons) would give Labour 25 out of 28 with the Lib Dems only winning Dore & Totley, Ecclesall and Fulwood.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 26, 2011, 11:05:10 AM The Liverpool LibDems. LOL.
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2011/04/liverpool-gary-millar-quits/ Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 27, 2011, 01:25:01 PM I really want to know if the audience is genuine or not...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1BKo_NlwZOQ Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: joevsimp on April 27, 2011, 06:24:02 PM I really want to know if the audience is genuine or not... Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Serenity Now on April 28, 2011, 08:00:23 AM I really want to know if the audience is genuine or not... http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1BKo_NlwZOQ It's definitely not a real audience (although it's quite amuising the idea that the leader of a political party would pull a prank like that). It is a bit weird, which isn't neccessarily a bad thing. I tend to agree with joevsimp (who I'm starting to think I might have met before). Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2011, 04:09:20 PM Polls have closed - results should be posted in this thread.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: afleitch on May 05, 2011, 05:34:07 PM 'The Liberal Democrat candidate for Westerhope, Neil Hamilton, died this afternoon.
Under council rules, if a candidate dies during an election, and before all votes are cast, the election is null and void and a by-election must be held.' Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 05, 2011, 05:36:09 PM Westerhope is in Newcastle upon Tyne for those who were confused.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2011, 05:43:37 PM I bring news of a shocking upset: the People's Flag (that is Deepest Red) remains flying over Sunderland.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 05, 2011, 05:45:20 PM I bring news of a shocking upset: the People's Flag (that is Deepest Red) remains flying over Sunderland. So much of an upset, neither Sky nor BBC can be bothered mentioning it. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 05, 2011, 05:47:16 PM DOes the BBC not have a map on their website? Can't seem to find one.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 05, 2011, 05:47:38 PM Shameless self-promotion time: for comparison go to
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/councils/2007 for the 2007 results. Or, if you want to download the lot, the 751-page book is now available: http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/pdf/2007/2007.pdf Don't all rush at once :) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2011, 05:49:32 PM If you produce a resource like that, then you are not only allowed but entitled to shameless plug it here! ;D
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2011, 05:51:54 PM Rumours - must stress that these are only rumours - of a bloodbath in Sheffield.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2011, 05:57:58 PM The internet is abuzz with rumours that Labour has captured the Woolton ward in Liverpool.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 05, 2011, 06:00:31 PM Reports from Liverpool don't just suggest a second landslide, but a first avalanche! (Labour are also doing well in my home borough across the Mersey :D)
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Insula Dei on May 05, 2011, 06:01:44 PM Quote 2357: Mark Gettleson tweets: "Rumours of Labour gain in Woolton ward Liverpool - Lib Dems have ALWAYS held it and led 51% to Lab's 25% in 2010. Sensational if true. This is the start of Clegg's northern nightmare. Labour GAIN Woolton ward, Liverpool. Was 51% Lib Dem to 25% Labour in 2010. More to come." This is going to be a fun night :)Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 05, 2011, 06:02:05 PM Shameless self-promotion time: for comparison go to http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/councils/2007 for the 2007 results. Or, if you want to download the lot, the 751-page book is now available: http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/pdf/2007/2007.pdf Don't all rush at once :) This is a brilliant resource - the goto for council results for me, so I can only echo CS: you should promote it at every opportunity (lord knows that I do). Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 05, 2011, 06:06:11 PM Rumours - must stress that these are only rumours - of a bloodbath in Sheffield. The Guardian reports suggestions by Nick Robinson of 12 out of 15 Lib Dem seats lost: pretty much the worst case scenario for them. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Smid on May 05, 2011, 06:08:39 PM If you produce a resource like that, then you are not only allowed but entitled to shameless plug it here! ;D Allowed? Entitled? I'd say more likely compelled as a duty! Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Dancing with Myself on May 05, 2011, 06:17:10 PM Sunderland South was won by Labour, 4% swing
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 05, 2011, 06:19:09 PM Sunderland Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 05, 2011, 06:22:57 PM My ward is expected to be "about 90%" Labour! :D
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Insula Dei on May 05, 2011, 06:30:43 PM LibDems could lose 12 out of 13 seats in Liverpool.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 05, 2011, 06:37:54 PM Listening to Radio Sheffield. There aren't many details being given away, or even much discussion of rumours (the 12 seat loss one was mentioned briefly) but clearly Labour have taken control. No surprise there; the question is by how much.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 05, 2011, 06:38:02 PM CON hold Broxbourne. 35 CON 3 LAB 0 LD No change at all
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 05, 2011, 06:44:03 PM Lab gain Wavertree (Liverpool) from former LD council leader.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2011, 06:45:07 PM Lab gain Wavertree (Liverpool) from former LD council leader. Christ. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 05, 2011, 06:46:31 PM Lab gain Wavertree (Liverpool) from former LD council leader. Christ. He's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy. Oh, sorry, thought you were talking about Bradley... Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 05, 2011, 06:50:13 PM Mike Hancock looking defeatist, to say it lightly, on BBC...
THe LibDem rhetoric of more Liberal say in government seems... difficult. As if the Tory Right will allow it. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on May 05, 2011, 06:56:24 PM So has Cleggmania turned into Cleggtastrophe for the LibDems?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 05, 2011, 06:59:07 PM Absolutely, moreso here in the North.
Refudiate: He's right, the Tories need Lib Dem votes to pass their policies, so if the Tory Right can't lump it then here's hoping for another election. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2011, 07:07:12 PM The LibDem leader of Hull City Council has conceded defeat on behalf of his party.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 05, 2011, 07:08:20 PM Suggestion on Radio Sheffield that Ecclesall may have "changed hands" (but they seemed sceptical). Disaster for the Lib Dems if that's true.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2011, 07:09:48 PM Tom Watson is speculating that Labour gains in Brum may be in double digits.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 05, 2011, 07:12:07 PM Rumours of six Labour gains in Bolton.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 05, 2011, 07:14:11 PM Birmingham: Lab gain Acocks Green from LD
First Sheffield result is a predictable Labour hold in Southey. Lab 2927 LD 403 Con 365 Green 347. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2011, 07:17:26 PM Birmingham: Lab gain Acocks Green from LD Used to be Fox Hollies. Working class suburbs; mostly council estates. Traditionally Labour, but the LibDems made a sudden stunning breakthrough in the early 1990s and have held on ever since (with the exception of a by-election on the same day as the 2001 General Election). Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 05, 2011, 07:26:11 PM CONs hold Castle Point
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 05, 2011, 07:38:05 PM Rumours from Radio Sheffield:
Recount in Stannington, Sheffield (in Hallam constituency, but not a typical Hallam ward): "around 10 votes in it". Also a suggested Lab gain in Stocksbridge & Upper Don from LD. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2011, 07:44:52 PM Mike Ion has gained College ward in Wellington :)
(that's in Telford & Wrekin) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2011, 07:46:10 PM LibDem meltdown in Manchester. Their leader is out, apparently some Didsbury wards are wobbling and Labour have apparently gained the City Centre ward for the first time since it was created.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 05, 2011, 08:01:49 PM Sheffield: Lab gain Crookes from LD (Twitter report)
This is in Clegg's constituency. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2011, 08:09:40 PM Reports that the LibDems may have lost every single seat they were defending in Manchester.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 05, 2011, 08:20:31 PM The LDs currently in 5th on my council!
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 05, 2011, 08:31:44 PM I know it's a boring council, but Labour have won 20 out of 21 in Rotherham, including Hellaby.
Internet rumours suggest the LDs have held Stannington in Sheffield by 4 or 5 (and have held Dore & Totley, so presumably we're still a Tory-free zone), but Labour have won several more wards. Further news: Labour gain Nether Edge by nearly 1000. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 05, 2011, 09:18:29 PM Bolton has finished counting. New council Lab 35 C 20 LD 5.
Lab gain from C Horwich and Blackrod Westhoughton North and Chew Moor Lab gain from LD Horwich North East (2) Kearsley () Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 05, 2011, 09:27:06 PM Sheffield complete.
9 Lab gains from LD: both Ecclesfield wards, Stocksbridge & Upper Don, Hillsborough, Walkley, Crookes, Broomhill, Nether Edge, Gleadless Valley. No other changes, so LDs held six wards. The Tories did embarrassingly badly as usual: they came third in Ecclesall and Fulwood, fourth in Crookes, Broomhill and Nether Edge and fifth in Walkley. (All of these except the last are wards they would have won until the 1980s or 1990s.) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 05, 2011, 09:56:08 PM Labour underperforming?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 05, 2011, 09:56:45 PM BBC report that the Conservatives have gained overall control of Boston from the Bypass Independents. C 19 Others 10 Lab 3.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 05, 2011, 10:06:12 PM Labour take back Telford & Wrekin.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 05, 2011, 10:14:14 PM Lab gain from LD Horwich North East (2) An illustration of the Lib Dem rout in the Mets - Horwich now has no Lib Dem councillors for the first time in many years. (The old unified Horwich ward was consistently Lib Dem at least since 1996.) When Labour gained Horwich NE last year I thought it was a fluke - I was wrong. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: afleitch on May 05, 2011, 10:18:09 PM Why are the Tories only down a handful of councillors? What's the story?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: bullmoose88 on May 05, 2011, 10:19:18 PM Why are the Tories only down a handful of councillors? What's the story? Lib Dems getting the beating instead? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 05, 2011, 10:21:37 PM Tories knew what they were voting for?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: bullmoose88 on May 05, 2011, 10:25:34 PM Projected vote share based on English councils
Lab 37% (+8) Con 35% (-1) LD 15 (-8) Hmm. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on May 05, 2011, 10:41:38 PM Just jumping in here, obviously looks like the Tories hanging tough while Labour pummels the LibDems, is that the developing story?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: bullmoose88 on May 05, 2011, 10:43:05 PM Just jumping in here, obviously looks like the Tories hanging tough while Labour pummels the LibDems, is that the developing story? Seems to be the main narrative...a side narrative is that the Tories and Labour are arguing over a shifting set of goal posts of Labour gains in order to say whether Labour succeeded tonight. In other news, the world is round. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on May 05, 2011, 10:48:42 PM Would it be too big a stretch to say Labour not pushing the Tories too hard + Labour crapout in Scotland equals at least a push on the night for the Conservatives?
Just jumping in here, obviously looks like the Tories hanging tough while Labour pummels the LibDems, is that the developing story? Seems to be the main narrative...a side narrative is that the Tories and Labour are arguing over a shifting set of goal posts of Labour gains in order to say whether Labour succeeded tonight. In other news, the world is round. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: bullmoose88 on May 05, 2011, 10:53:45 PM Would it be too big a stretch to say Labour not pushing the Tories too hard + Labour crapout in Scotland equals at least a push on the night for the Conservatives? Just jumping in here, obviously looks like the Tories hanging tough while Labour pummels the LibDems, is that the developing story? Seems to be the main narrative...a side narrative is that the Tories and Labour are arguing over a shifting set of goal posts of Labour gains in order to say whether Labour succeeded tonight. In other news, the world is round. Lib Dem collapse everywhere, particularly in Scotland isn't helping Labour. Tories up 2% in Wales, Labour in the 40s, PC 21%, Con 20%...decent chance the tories come in 2nd. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Dan the Roman on May 05, 2011, 11:05:11 PM Would it be too big a stretch to say Labour not pushing the Tories too hard + Labour crapout in Scotland equals at least a push on the night for the Conservatives? Just jumping in here, obviously looks like the Tories hanging tough while Labour pummels the LibDems, is that the developing story? Seems to be the main narrative...a side narrative is that the Tories and Labour are arguing over a shifting set of goal posts of Labour gains in order to say whether Labour succeeded tonight. In other news, the world is round. Lib Dem collapse everywhere, particularly in Scotland isn't helping Labour. Tories up 2% in Wales, Labour in the 40s, PC 21%, Con 20%...decent chance the tories come in 2nd. The totals for locals are being distorted by the Tories taking as many seats off of the Liberal Democrats as they are losing to Labour. Overall the Tory vote has held up. The problem for a general election is that most of the lost LD vote has gone to Labour. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 06, 2011, 02:38:35 AM I know results are patchy across the UK for Labour, but some of their swings in metropolitan Northern cities must be monumental if they've won some of the wards they're supposed to.
*Although I say patchy, the only place Labour seem to have done badly is Scotland and even there, their vote's largely remained static since '07. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 06, 2011, 02:43:29 AM The totals for locals are being distorted by the Tories taking as many seats off of the Liberal Democrats as they are losing to Labour. Overall the Tory vote has held up. The problem for a general election is that most of the lost LD vote has gone to Labour. That's very much consistent with the recent polls: Tories still fairly close to their 2010 GE level, LDs losing lots of votes to Labour. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 06, 2011, 02:46:10 AM It doesn't seem to have been posted on here yet that Labour won every single ward in Manchester:
http://www.manchester.gov.uk/info/362/elections/5102/local_election_nominees_2011 In Liverpool, the Lib Dems held Woolton in spite of the earlier rumours, and also held Church, but they lost everything else. The Greens and the Liberals both held the single seats they were defending. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 03:08:24 AM It doesn't seem to have been posted on here yet that Labour won every single ward in Manchester: http://www.manchester.gov.uk/info/362/elections/5102/local_election_nominees_2011 Most of those aren't even vaguely close either. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Franzl on May 06, 2011, 03:12:45 AM Am I interpreting correctly that this is a rather good result for Conservatives?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 03:16:48 AM Am I interpreting correctly that this is a rather good result for Conservatives? Not really; overall councillor numbers (and other such abstractions) can be quite misleading: they're still losing seats to Labour and in places where doing so will cost them power locally. But they're doing very well against their coalition partners in most of southern England - better than some had predicted. Of course it's not a classic mid-term disaster for them (even if it is for Team Yellow). Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 06, 2011, 03:19:02 AM Pretty good, mainly because the collapse of Lib Dem vote to Labour benefited them in the South (one united anti-Tory vote collapses into two non-competitive votes etc) as much as it did for Labour in the North.
Liverpool's Lib Dem leader, in Wavertree results for 2007 Lib 70.0% Lab 16.7% and that's a Labour gain lol. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 03:49:05 AM Surreal scenes in Brum as... well...
Quote Two people were arrested after seals were broken on two ballot boxes at the count in Harborne. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-13285267 Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 04:05:52 AM Congratulations to James McKay (http://www.historycultures.bham.ac.uk/staff/mckay.shtml) if what I've heard is right and he's won Harborne. And if the result there stands after the weirdness.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Serenity Now on May 06, 2011, 05:32:20 AM Brighton and Hove: I've heard rumours (from a farily reputible, non-partisan source at the count) that the Greens might win a seat in Patcham - the safest Tory seat within Brighton Pavilion.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2011, 06:13:28 AM Quote from: beeb Labour has taken control of Lincoln City Council by winning six wards in the local election. The council had previously been run by the Conservatives, who lost a ward and dropped to 15 seats. Labour has also taken Leeds from no overall control, winning seven seats to gain a majority of 55. The Lib Dems lost five seats and the Conservatives one in Leeds. Wait, so where did all the other Labour gains in Lincoln come from? LDs and/or some indy group annihilated? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Serenity Now on May 06, 2011, 06:18:26 AM Gains for both Greens and Labour in Brighton and Hove so far. Lib Dems wiped out.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 06, 2011, 06:25:42 AM Labour have taken control of Leeds. More bad results for the Lib Dems in the urban North: they only won two wards (one of which was Otley & Yeadon, which is not part of Leeds by any sensible definition) out of the eight they were defending.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 06, 2011, 07:44:03 AM Quote from: beeb Labour has taken control of Lincoln City Council by winning six wards in the local election. The council had previously been run by the Conservatives, who lost a ward and dropped to 15 seats. Labour has also taken Leeds from no overall control, winning seven seats to gain a majority of 55. The Lib Dems lost five seats and the Conservatives one in Leeds. Wait, so where did all the other Labour gains in Lincoln come from? LDs and/or some indy group annihilated? Lincoln is basically a two-party state. Poor phrasing from the beeb: Labour won six wards = five holds + one gain (presumably Glebe ward). Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 06, 2011, 08:51:46 AM BBC report Labour have gained Chesterfield from the Lib Dems. That required a swing of over 16%.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 08:55:33 AM Tory majority in Walsall is gone.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 09:29:06 AM Labour have made decent gains in the Forest of Dean; up from eight seats to seventeen. :)
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 09:40:35 AM No LibDems elected in Rochdale.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 10:02:47 AM Labour take Redcar & Cleveland. It may be interesting to see the ward results.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 10:04:40 AM Contrasting fortunes in Lindsey... the Tories have gained North Lincolnshire from Labour (who gained it from the Tories in 2007. Weird, huh?) but Labour have made significant gains in NE Lincolnshire, vaulting from third to first.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 06, 2011, 10:12:08 AM Labour take Redcar & Cleveland. It may be interesting to see the ward results. Aye. Good stuff. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 10:17:10 AM The BBC reports that Labour are back in control of Newcastle.
Edit: ten gains - 43-32. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2011, 10:40:56 AM Losing to Labour in the North and to the Tories in the south as former Labour tactical voters unwind against them. Seems that the Tories are losing big to Labour, but making up for it with big LibDem gains.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 10:45:49 AM The Red Flag flies over Bideford. Or: Labour's most random gain so far. That I've seen anyway.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2011, 10:50:11 AM http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-13275291
Heh Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 12:03:27 PM ()
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2011, 12:09:07 PM Who's that?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2011, 12:12:53 PM Looks like he's caught Cleggmonia
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: minionofmidas on May 06, 2011, 01:07:25 PM LOL!
Bury had a draw in Ramsbottom ward. Which was decided by a drawing of lots (after two recounts). Which Labour won. Which gave them a majority on the council - 26 Labour, 20 Conservative, 5 LDs. (There were 17 seats up this year; not sure how they split but Labour made 6 gains - 3 from the Tories incl. Ramsbottom, 3 from the LDs.) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2011, 01:16:02 PM http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/wintour-and-watt/2011/may/06/edmiliband-nickclegg?CMP=twt_gu
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 06, 2011, 01:21:32 PM Sheffield winning party:
() Lib Dem to Labour swing since 2010: () (Shades are 0 to 4%, 4% to 8%, etc., up to 16% to 20%, using the British definition of "swing") Base map is by Jonathan Harston http://mdfs.net/Docs/Sheffield/ Low swings are in the northern parishes, where the Lib Dems did badly in 2010, and in the Lib Dem parts of Heeley constituency where they did surprisingly well (relatively) this year. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 06, 2011, 01:23:30 PM LOL! Bury had a draw in Ramsbottom ward. Which was decided by a drawing of lots (after two recounts). Which Labour won. Which gave them a majority on the council - 26 Labour, 20 Conservative, 5 LDs. (There were 17 seats up this year; not sure how they split but Labour made 6 gains - 3 from the Tories incl. Ramsbottom, 3 from the LDs.) My family live in Bury. Here be the map: () Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2011, 01:23:57 PM What was the vote in the Hallam constituency?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 06, 2011, 01:31:11 PM What was the vote in the Hallam constituency? LD 14670 Lab 10859 Con 7382 Green 4614 ... which is very good for Labour. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2011, 01:39:13 PM What was the vote in the Hallam constituency? LD 14670 Lab 10859 Con 7382 Green 4614 ... which is very good for Labour. So: Liberal Democrats 39% (-14%) Labour 29% (+13%) Conservatives 20% (-4%) Greens 12% (+11%) 13.5% swing to Labour from the Liberal Democrats since the general election in May 2010. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on May 06, 2011, 01:44:48 PM So that's what someone looks like going to their own funeral. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Peter on May 06, 2011, 01:52:13 PM My local elections ward (returning 2 councillors) had 2 Tories (both incumbent), a Green and an Indie (ex LD) standing. I voted for the Green and LD. I think there's a fighting chance the Greenie could get in. The LD is a bit of a bitter hack about the coalition, so he probably won't make it. Even more in fact, it looks as though several ex-LD indies have won seats on my council. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2011, 02:17:06 PM Labour underperform, but still, the LibDems destroyed from John O'Groats to the White Cliffs. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifO7AwBtNjE#t=16s)
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2011, 02:31:05 PM Is there a list of councils which are up in 2012?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Peter on May 06, 2011, 02:55:08 PM Wikipedia's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2008) list of council elections in 2008 should be accurate for working out the 2012 elections.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 03:01:26 PM A Labour majority in York. Which will be more of a surprise to those that know its boundaries than those that think it's just the city proper.
Labour underperform In some places, yes, in others no. Usually it's hard to tell; there's no decent baseline to measure off. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2011, 03:04:11 PM A Labour majority in York. Which will be more of a surprise to those that know its boundaries than those that think it's just the city proper. Labour underperform In some places, yes, in others no. Usually it's hard to tell; there's no decent baseline to measure off. Would "Tories overperform" be a better view? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 03:49:05 PM Would "Tories overperform" be a better view? Isn't that an entirely subjective question? They didn't suffer a mid-term meltdown, but I don't think anyone actually expected that. Look, the media (and certain academics who would, perhaps, know better but for the lure of cash in a time when there's not much of that around) like to focus on the total number of seats won, but that can be highly misleading at the best of times. Wards are not the same size across the country for one thing, and Labour is simply not at all competitive in the vast majority of district councils, especially not after most of the more historically industrial went unitary. The Tories certainly did well in parts of the south where they were mostly facing up against their coalition partners. But results elsewhere don't look so good; for example, they lost six seats in Birmingham and were lucky not to lose a few more (they came within a whisker of losing Edgbaston, for example). Of course both of those comments are generalisations. Basically, they should be pleased that any discontent with the government has passed over ordinary Tory voters, and they also have a right to be pleased that they are capable of benefiting from poor LibDem results in some areas (there had been some speculation to the contrary, probably based on a handful of local by-elections). Against that, they should be concerned that they are clearly on the way out in most large local authorities. None of which tells us anything about the next General Election. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 06, 2011, 04:05:59 PM Is there a list of councils which are up in 2012? Keith Edkins has an excellent one: http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/uklocalgov/ Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2011, 04:40:42 PM Why are Sky reporting different figures to BBC?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 05:43:20 PM Why are Sky reporting different figures to BBC? Probably they're including some councils that the BBC aren't (or vice versa). Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2011, 06:14:14 PM BBC says the projected share is 39-37-15
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 06:25:24 PM Going back a few posts, the issue is - and I always get annoyed by this - the way that the media and the professional pundits always attempt to shoehorn local election results (I am only commenting on those in this post) into a predetermined narrative, whether that narrative is appropriate or not. In this case it was mostly for a (heavily trailed) one-year-one retrospective; how wonderful Cameron is doing gloriously, how pathetic Clegg is drowning, and how boring Labour are failing to make any kind of impact whatsoever. No matter what the results, figures would have been brandished around to 'prove' the accuracy of that narrative. Of course the narrative in question isn't entirely untrue; Cameron remains a popular figure in the parts of Britain predisposed towards the Tories, the LibDems have taken most of the flak for the unpopular things that the government has done, and Labour is rather inward-looking and focused on rebuilding. All of these things were reflected in the results. It's just that other things happened as well.
It's not an issue of systematic bias (at some point the pushed narrative will be broadly favourable to Labour and I'll still hate it) so much as the increasingly apparent tendency of the media to distort and compress information into brightly coloured chunks in order to throw at an audience presumed to be insufficiently intelligent to understand that in a British election you cast your vote by marking an 'x' on a piece of paper. ... ... ... Yes, I'm still bitter about the boat. And what it represented. And still represents. God damn it. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2011, 06:38:51 PM Going back a few posts, the issue is - and I always get annoyed by this - the way that the media and the professional pundits always attempt to shoehorn local election results (I am only commenting on those in this post) into a predetermined narrative, whether that narrative is appropriate or not. In this case it was mostly for a (heavily trailed) one-year-one retrospective; how wonderful Cameron is doing gloriously, how pathetic Clegg is drowning, and how boring Labour are failing to make any kind of impact whatsoever. No matter what the results, figures would have been brandished around to 'prove' the accuracy of that narrative. Of course the narrative in question isn't entirely untrue; Cameron remains a popular figure in the parts of Britain predisposed towards the Tories, the LibDems have taken most of the flak for the unpopular things that the government has done, and Labour is rather inward-looking and focused on rebuilding. All of these things were reflected in the results. It's just that other things happened as well. It's not an issue of systematic bias (at some point the pushed narrative will be broadly favourable to Labour and I'll still hate it) so much as the increasingly apparent tendency of the media to distort and compress information into brightly coloured chunks in order to throw at an audience presumed to be insufficiently intelligent to understand that in a British election you cast your vote by marking an 'x' on a piece of paper. ... ... ... Yes, I'm still bitter about the boat. And what it represented. And still represents. God damn it. Atleast we didn't have any of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSZbvnVfqfE Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 06, 2011, 06:50:48 PM My eyes! They bleed!
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 06, 2011, 06:53:06 PM My eyes! They bleed! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7JX8D1Kb88 EDIT: Watching that, it could be even more worrying for Clegg and Co if we're still following the "LibDems go down at general elections" rule of thumb. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 07, 2011, 03:37:17 AM Do the BBC even understand elections by thirds?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-13284970 Quote Two Green councillors and one independent held on to their seats in an election which saw a high turnout. Of those, only one Green (Jillian Creasy in Central) was defending on Thursday; the other Green in Central and the Independent in Gleadless Valley aren't up until next year. (And while at least the article doesn't refer to a certain Staffordshire town with an H in its name as if it were a ward in Sheffield, it does refer to "Greaves Park".) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 07, 2011, 04:02:14 AM Would "Tories overperform" be a better view? Isn't that an entirely subjective question? They didn't suffer a mid-term meltdown, but I don't think anyone actually expected that. Look, the media (and certain academics who would, perhaps, know better but for the lure of cash in a time when there's not much of that around) like to focus on the total number of seats won, but that can be highly misleading at the best of times. Wards are not the same size across the country for one thing, and Labour is simply not at all competitive in the vast majority of district councils, especially not after most of the more historically industrial went unitary. The Tories certainly did well in parts of the south where they were mostly facing up against their coalition partners. But results elsewhere don't look so good; for example, they lost six seats in Birmingham and were lucky not to lose a few more (they came within a whisker of losing Edgbaston, for example). Of course both of those comments are generalisations. Basically, they should be pleased that any discontent with the government has passed over ordinary Tory voters, and they also have a right to be pleased that they are capable of benefiting from poor LibDem results in some areas (there had been some speculation to the contrary, probably based on a handful of local by-elections). Against that, they should be concerned that they are clearly on the way out in most large local authorities. None of which tells us anything about the next General Election. I can't find much to disagree with there. In particular, I wish the media would find a better way of summarising the results than councillors gained/lost; maybe this is because I live in a Met with large wards. As for Tory "overperformance", in Sheffield their share was 11.7%, which is their worst result since 1999 and worse than in that well known Tory triumph which was the 1996 locals. In what ought to be their heartlands (and once were) they didn't come close to winning Dore & Totley, and came third behind Labour in both Ecclesall and Fulwood, with a share below 20% in the former and not much above in the latter. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 07, 2011, 05:39:11 AM I think the swing map I posted yesterday gives the real story of this election in Sheffield, but here are the vote share maps. Shades are in increments of 10% for Labour and the Lib Dems and 5% for the Tories and the Greens; the darkest Labour shade is 70% to 80% and the darkest Lib Dem share 40% to 50%.
() And for a bit of silliness, here's the "Second Past The Post" winner in each ward. Magenta is UKIP and dark red is TUSC. () Again the base map is due to Jonathan Harston. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 07, 2011, 08:43:22 AM The Labour candidate in Washwood Heath polled 89%!
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Peter on May 07, 2011, 05:44:52 PM South Oxfordshire ALL seats up for election (last election 2007) For those of you that don't know, I now live in a rural Oxfordshire village! Conservative - 38 LD - 6 Lab - 1 Henley Residents - 1 Independent/Other - 2 () () New Council: Conservative - 33 LD - 4 Lab - 4 Henley Residents -2 Ind/Other - 5 Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 07, 2011, 06:47:13 PM Quick map of winners in Brum:
() The stunner of the night was Hall Green; Labour have only ever won there once. In 1945; and the ward covered a larger area back then. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 07, 2011, 07:52:48 PM Telford & Wrekin:
() Note that Labour only ran one candidate in Madeley, leaving the other seat for an Independent (Tories ran two candidates). Yeah, didn't expect Labour to win a majority of seats in Wellington; of course the one gain was a bit of a fluke (incumbent in Park had been elected as a Tory but had since jumped to UKIP and sought re-election), but the others weren't. TAWPA were wiped out in Dawley, which is great news. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: joevsimp on May 08, 2011, 10:52:08 AM Quick map of winners in Brum: The stunner of the night was Hall Green; Labour have only ever won there once. In 1945; and the ward covered a larger area back then. I assume that Salma Yaqoub's seat wasn't up this year or we'd have heard more, any idea on the prognosis for Respect? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 08, 2011, 10:54:52 AM So that's what someone looks like going to their own funeral. http://nickclegglookingsad.tumblr.com/ Just found this! :D Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 08, 2011, 12:40:19 PM ()
The first election with the new system of local government in Stoke; no more elected Mayors, no more elections by thirds and less councillors from more wards. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: minionofmidas on May 08, 2011, 12:43:39 PM So that one red-blue ward has three seats?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 08, 2011, 01:17:06 PM So that one red-blue ward has three seats? Yeah. Oddly enough although a Tory incumbent did run there, he wasn't the Tory candidate to get elected. Really surprised that they didn't get anyone elected in Hanford & Trentham (big grey ward, far south west). Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 08, 2011, 01:47:59 PM ()
Liverpool's 2010 result (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=2806) And their 2008 result (a MASSIVE contrast) (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=1988) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 08, 2011, 02:22:18 PM I haven't got any pretty maps to offer, but I did work out - in the understandable absense of any figures online - what the North East region's collective vote was and and how it differed to '07's collective vote - ie swings.
North East I've also worked out the swings for each of the individual councils. If anyone's interested I'll post them (or if anyone knows if someone's already done this - and where). Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 08, 2011, 02:37:11 PM ()
Two wards in Newcastle will vote in June due to candidate deaths. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 08, 2011, 02:44:51 PM ()
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Serenity Now on May 08, 2011, 05:20:58 PM I haven't got any pretty maps to offer, but I did work out - in the understandable absense of any figures online - what the North East region's collective vote was and and how it differed to '07's collective vote - ie swings. North East I've also worked out the swings for each of the individual councils. If anyone's interested I'll post them (or if anyone knows if someone's already done this - and where). You must always go ahead and post stuff like that: we're always interested in stuff like that, even if we don't comment :) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 08, 2011, 06:28:39 PM Rightio; :)
Darlington Unfamiliar acronyms/awkward attempts to fit party names into three letters: Lib* = Liberal Party BFP = Britain First Party EFP = England First Party NFP = Newcastle First Party NNP = New Nationalist Party Prg = South Tyneside Progressives N-F = National Front The rest is standard fare - those in brackets didn't stand this time round. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 13, 2011, 03:50:01 PM ()
West Yorkshire. Obviously a lot going on there, but I direct the eye of the casual reader to the far west of the map. Those semi-rural Pennine wards (from Calder - the red no. 2 - south) are usually yellow. In most of them they came third this time; there was a massive leaking of votes to Labour, which often let in Tory candidates. The key point being that that area has about as unbroken a Liberal tradition as they come. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 13, 2011, 07:32:27 PM The Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire:
() Interesting that the Independents in Barnsley didn't really hold up much better than in 2010; two made it, rest out. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 13, 2011, 10:24:54 PM Forest of Dean:
() The stripes don't match up, but that would be boring and thus very un-Forest-like. Obviously only part of the Forest of Dean District is actually in the Forest, no matter how defined; the rest is more typical of rural Gloucestershire. () Anyways, there are actually three wards in the Coleford area (town split between a blue/grey half and a red/grey/red half) as Berry Hill (which is not part of Coleford at all) gets a ward to itself. It's the little red blob on top. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: minionofmidas on May 14, 2011, 03:46:24 AM Hartlepool Lab 45.6% (+12.3%) Con 23.8% (+9.2%) Ind 17.6% (-2.7%) UKI 8.2% (-3.3%) Lib 3.7% (-15.3%) BNP 1.0% (-0.3%) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 14, 2011, 12:08:49 PM The Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire: () Interesting that the Independents in Barnsley didn't really hold up much better than in 2010; two made it, rest out. And not a single Independent or minor party candidate (well, unless you count the Lib Dems or the Tories, which wouldn't be entirely unreasonable in South Yorks) won in Doncaster. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 14, 2011, 12:35:56 PM The Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire: () Interesting that the Independents in Barnsley didn't really hold up much better than in 2010; two made it, rest out. And not a single Independent or minor party candidate (well, unless you count the Lib Dems or the Tories, which wouldn't be entirely unreasonable in South Yorks) won in Doncaster. Favourite son for Ed? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 16, 2011, 12:28:04 PM North West Counties: Cheshire Cumbria Greater Manchester Lancashire Merseyside Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 16, 2011, 02:21:39 PM ...and the individual councils;
Cheshire: Cheshire East Cheshire W/Chester Halton Warrington Cumbria: Allerdale Barrow-in-Furness Carlisle Copeland Eden Greater Manchester: Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Rochdale Lancashire: Blackburn w/ Darwen Blackpool Burnley Chorley Fylde Merseyside: Knowsley Liverpool St Helen's Sefton Wirral Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 16, 2011, 03:33:44 PM Hartlepool Lab 45.6% (+12.3%) Con 23.8% (+9.2%) Ind 17.6% (-2.7%) UKI 8.2% (-3.3%) Lib 3.7% (-15.3%) BNP 1.0% (-0.3%) whee... Haha. I think this Manchester graph better represents that: () (sorry about the triple-posting, it seemed better to keep them seperate) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on May 16, 2011, 05:33:31 PM Hartlepool Lab 45.6% (+12.3%) Con 23.8% (+9.2%) Ind 17.6% (-2.7%) UKI 8.2% (-3.3%) Lib 3.7% (-15.3%) BNP 1.0% (-0.3%) whee... Haha. I think this Manchester graph better represents that: () (sorry about the triple-posting, it seemed better to keep them seperate) Nah, I think this map better represents it: () Well done on a good job BTW. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 17, 2011, 09:33:44 AM Excellent work!
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 19, 2011, 10:31:30 AM Thanks. :)
Yorkshire & the Humber Counties; South Yorkshire West Yorkshire North Yorkshire East Riding Lincolnshire (N/NE) Councils; South Yorkshire:
West Yorkshire:
North Yorkshire:
East Riding of Yorkshire:
Lincolnshire:
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 20, 2011, 03:56:41 PM ()
Winning party by ward for all of the councils in the former West Midlands Metropolitan County. Basically, Labour did well everywhere except for Solihull, the Tories did badly everywhere except for Solihull and the LibDems did extremely (shockingly?) badly everywhere (including Solihull). Of course there's a lot of variation within that general pattern. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 22, 2011, 11:04:40 AM ()
Birmingham (http://www2.b3ta.com/birmingham/) Yay, finally got one of these done. Anyways, a couple of points for those that don't know Brum that well: 1. Local elections in Brum can be very strange because you have this odd combination of massive swings linked (usually) to whatever is going on nationally and the continued importance of candidates and various local factors. There's this idea that the latter is only true of the heavily Asian wards, but that's bollocks (look at Oscott over the past... er... thirty years). 2. My, my, but doesn't the rather close relationship between the Tories and the LibDems in the city show up so clearly on maps of local elections? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: minionofmidas on May 22, 2011, 11:06:08 AM Fit like a jigsaw.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: joevsimp on May 23, 2011, 12:50:21 PM () Winning party by ward for all of the councils in the former West Midlands Metropolitan County. Basically, Labour did well everywhere except for Solihull, the Tories did badly everywhere except for Solihull and the LibDems did extremely (shockingly?) badly everywhere (including Solihull). Of course there's a lot of variation within that general pattern. What's the one tory seat in Sandwell? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on May 23, 2011, 02:49:30 PM What's the one tory seat in Sandwell? Charlemont with Grove Vale, which was quite close (Tory majority 112). What's the story behind the Green gains in Solihull? I know one of those wards (Chelmsley Wood) has voted BNP in the past; is it the only place to have voted both Green and BNP? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 23, 2011, 08:01:31 PM Hmm, interesting. When you consider that both parties are often targeting the same type of disaffected Labour voter, it becomes easier to understand.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 24, 2011, 08:48:15 AM In Chelmsley Wood, sure. It's a very, very strange place; really should have incorporated it into Brum in the 70s. But generally? Not convinced that central Brighton has much in common with (say) Becontree, Bentilee or Heckmondwike. Especially as the latter type don't seem quite so disaffected these days...
What's the story behind the Green gains in Solihull? I know one of those wards (Chelmsley Wood) has voted BNP in the past; is it the only place to have voted both Green and BNP? Solihull Labour made the error of becoming the junior partners to a LibDem-led administration in the borough, and so it seems that the Greens (an established receptacle for protest votes in Chelmsley Wood/Kingshurst for whatever reason: they have another councillor up for re-election next year) benefited as a direct result. The contrast with the rest of the conurbation is... er... noticeable. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 24, 2011, 08:50:32 AM Charlemont with Grove Vale, which was quite close (Tory majority 112). Basically an affluent Birmingham suburb, though is technically part of West Brom. Don't think it's ever gone Labour before. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: joevsimp on May 24, 2011, 12:31:39 PM In Chelmsley Wood, sure. It's a very, very strange place; really should have incorporated it into Brum in the 70s. But generally? Not convinced that central Brighton has much in common with (say) Becontree, Bentilee or Heckmondwike. Especially as the latter type don't seem quite so disaffected these days... What's the story behind the Green gains in Solihull? I know one of those wards (Chelmsley Wood) has voted BNP in the past; is it the only place to have voted both Green and BNP? Solihull Labour made the error of becoming the junior partners to a LibDem-led administration in the borough, and so it seems that the Greens (an established receptacle for protest votes in Chelmsley Wood/Kingshurst for whatever reason: they have another councillor up for re-election next year) benefited as a direct result. The contrast with the rest of the conurbation is... er... noticeable. Solihull was also(iirc) the place where the the Green Party's "Target to Win" strategy was pioneered, where all available resources are put into one basket/ward and then expand from there, although, Having lived in three of the ten wards in B&H with Green cllrs, there's plenty of patches here and there that aren't what you'd expect, some really horrid looking blocks and some blocks that look nice on the outside but are'nt so great once you get in the big doors Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: joevsimp on May 24, 2011, 12:58:37 PM In Chelmsley Wood, sure. It's a very, very strange place; really should have incorporated it into Brum in the 70s. But generally? Not convinced that central Brighton has much in common with (say) Becontree, Bentilee or Heckmondwike. Especially as the latter type don't seem quite so disaffected these days... What's the story behind the Green gains in Solihull? I know one of those wards (Chelmsley Wood) has voted BNP in the past; is it the only place to have voted both Green and BNP? Solihull Labour made the error of becoming the junior partners to a LibDem-led administration in the borough, and so it seems that the Greens (an established receptacle for protest votes in Chelmsley Wood/Kingshurst for whatever reason: they have another councillor up for re-election next year) benefited as a direct result. The contrast with the rest of the conurbation is... er... noticeable. Solihull was also(iirc) the place where the the Green Party's "Target to Win" strategy was pioneered, where all available resources are put into one basket/ward and then expand from there, although, Having lived in three of the ten wards in B&H with Green cllrs, there's plenty of patches here and there that aren't what you'd expect, some really horrid looking blocks and some blocks that look nice on the outside but are'nt so great once you get in the big doors e2a the Greens have gained another cllr in Solihull, by a defection from the Lib Dems, Howard Allen in Shirley West, giving us a total of 4, only two less than Labour (wtf did they do to wind up like that?) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 24, 2011, 02:52:06 PM In Chelmsley Wood, sure. It's a very, very strange place; really should have incorporated it into Brum in the 70s. But generally? Not convinced that central Brighton has much in common with (say) Becontree, Bentilee or Heckmondwike. Especially as the latter type don't seem quite so disaffected these days... Brighton's a bit unrepresentative, I think, even if it is their most successful area. My point being there's plenty in the Greens' platform that could be sold to someone who'd went from Labour>BNP - if we accept there's a substantial reactionary segment in the Labour vote, that's in the past voted for their left-wing economics, despite their left-wing social stances. Depending on the candidate, I don't see why the Greens couldn't replicate that - although, as you say, not really at the same time as a resurgent Labour. What's with the sig, btw? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 25, 2011, 09:16:41 AM although, Having lived in three of the ten wards in B&H with Green cllrs, there's plenty of patches here and there that aren't what you'd expect, some really horrid looking blocks and some blocks that look nice on the outside but are'nt so great once you get in the big doors I wasn't thinking in terms of affluence and so on, so much as culture; much of Brighton is quite distinct from cultural norms and this shows up in a wide range of statistics (everything from religious identity to consumer habits), which makes it ideal territory for the Greens (or, frankly, for any other radical party outside the labourist - I'm using that word in a non-pejorative sense of course - and fabian norms of left wing electoral politics in Britain). Most of the places where the BNP was (ah... how nice to write...) strong are not like that; if there was a political tradition that went against Labour norms, then it was usually submerged working class Toryism. But here's an interesting thought. Chemsley Wood is one of the places where the last of the Birmingham slummies were dumped (the other was Castle Vale) forty years ago. The parts of Birmingham where they lived had actually taken to voting for Liberal (in reality pseudo-fascist, but that's enough of that for now) candidates in City Council (and the entirely regrettable Ladywood by-election) elections as a protest vote of sorts. So protest voting there hasn't actually come out of nowhere. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 25, 2011, 09:19:31 AM What's with the sig, btw? As in what's in it, or is it not displaying properly? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 25, 2011, 09:46:40 AM No, as in, are you a Sunderland fan or summat?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 25, 2011, 09:53:21 AM No, as in, are you a Sunderland fan or summat? Oh yes. Very much so. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: joevsimp on May 25, 2011, 12:06:23 PM although, Having lived in three of the ten wards in B&H with Green cllrs, there's plenty of patches here and there that aren't what you'd expect, some really horrid looking blocks and some blocks that look nice on the outside but are'nt so great once you get in the big doors I wasn't thinking in terms of affluence and so on, so much as culture; much of Brighton is quite distinct from cultural norms and this shows up in a wide range of statistics (everything from religious identity to consumer habits), which makes it ideal territory for the Greens (or, frankly, for any other radical party outside the labourist - I'm using that word in a non-pejorative sense of course - and fabian norms of left wing electoral politics in Britain). Most of the places where the BNP was (ah... how nice to write...) strong are not like that; if there was a political tradition that went against Labour norms, then it was usually submerged working class Toryism. that's fair enough, I'd agree that you get working class greenies in Brighton at about the same rate as working class tories in Essex, where I grew up, and I've definately got clothes I bought when I lived down there that I'd never wear back home. not to put things too bluntly, but IME, a lot of the "typical" bnp voters in the Barking, Epping Forest, Thurrock etc sort of area is the kind of working class tories who voted for Labour in 97 and 01 and read the Sun, tarring with a fairly broad broad brush there, and not everyone of that discription does (especially in Romford where Andrew Rosindell with his bulldog in a Union Jack dogcoat is the MP) Back to Chemsley wood though, the turnouts in local elections are so low that there could be hardly anyone who's voted for both, I'd guess there's mostly bnp voters going back to labour and the greens gaining labour voters who never voted bnp Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 25, 2011, 02:56:17 PM Back to Chemsley wood though, the turnouts in local elections are so low that there could be hardly anyone who's voted for both, I'd guess there's mostly bnp voters going back to labour and the greens gaining labour voters who never voted bnp Hmm, I'd understand that if the Greens had never stood before and the Greens suddenly tapped into the Labour vote, but they stood in 2007, with it being a Labour/BNP fight and the Greens on 5%. No, as in, are you a Sunderland fan or summat? Oh yes. Very much so. Interesting, so how'd that come about (presumably you're not from there)? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 26, 2011, 10:21:07 AM not to put things too bluntly, but IME, a lot of the "typical" bnp voters in the Barking, Epping Forest, Thurrock etc sort of area is the kind of working class tories who voted for Labour in 97 and 01 and read the Sun, tarring with a fairly broad broad brush there I think there's some truth to that, yeah. Though Barking would be a little different, as Becontree was always (and is again, etc) solidly Labour in local elections. Quote and not everyone of that discription does (especially in Romford where Andrew Rosindell with his bulldog in a Union Jack dogcoat is the MP) Pretty much everywhere in the Romford constituency is middle class suburbia, even if no one there has a degree. Which is bizarre, but quite normal for Essex for reasons that I've never entirely understood. Quote Back to Chemsley wood though, the turnouts in local elections are so low that there could be hardly anyone who's voted for both, I'd guess there's mostly bnp voters going back to labour and the greens gaining labour voters who never voted bnp Chelmsley Wood is very weird, so the alternative explanation is more likely ;D Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 26, 2011, 10:23:39 AM Interesting, so how'd that come about (presumably you're not from there)? To cut a long story short, my Grandad was from West Durham. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Verily on May 26, 2011, 10:25:11 AM Back to Chemsley wood though, the turnouts in local elections are so low that there could be hardly anyone who's voted for both, I'd guess there's mostly bnp voters going back to labour and the greens gaining labour voters who never voted bnp Hmm, I'd understand that if the Greens had never stood before and the Greens suddenly tapped into the Labour vote, but they stood in 2007, with it being a Labour/BNP fight and the Greens on 5%. Maybe they were disinclined to vote Green and risk the BNP winning in 2007, but with the BNP not looking like a threat, they switched to the Greens. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 26, 2011, 10:30:44 AM Any suggestions of where to do next? Both in terms of those pretty series of maps like the one for Brum, or just the who-won-where things? Manchester?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Serenity Now on May 26, 2011, 01:39:47 PM Brighton and Hove will have to do for now..
() Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 26, 2011, 06:02:35 PM Council-level results gifs using the figures I posted;
Labour's share of the vote: () Tory's: () Liberal's () If someone could offer a less-limited colour palate (15 or so) for each party I could probably show the changes better. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on May 26, 2011, 06:45:40 PM Actually, scrap that request, I've done it. Seems Photoshop's being a fair bit cautious on what colours is says are web applicable?!
() Which party has the largest share of the vote per council and by how large a majority over main opposition (I'll probably redo these using my 15+ colour palate depending on how noticeable a difference it turns out). Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 27, 2011, 09:21:31 AM Great work and great work :)
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on June 01, 2011, 03:16:10 AM Ta.
East Midlands Regions; Derbyshire Nottinghamshire Lincolnshire Leicestershire Northamptonshire Councils; Derbyshire: Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 01, 2011, 08:36:13 AM Labour were miles off running a full slate in some districts in the East Midlands where they do have a sizeable presence (notably in Northants; Northampton itself very much included. Organisational problems), fwiw.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on June 01, 2011, 08:50:51 AM Yeah, I've noticed in the rural councils especially, Labour participation tends to vary between very patchy to almost non-existent. Just counting the last few, I seen a number of wards where if Labour had stood a third councillor they would've scooped all three, but in their absence it falls to another party & boosts their vote in the ward by a third.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 01, 2011, 09:08:37 AM Yeah, I've noticed in the rural councils especially, Labour participation tends to vary between very patchy to almost non-existent. Just counting the last few, I seen a number of wards where if Labour had stood a third councillor they would've scooped all three, but in their absence it falls to another party & boosts their vote in the ward by a third. It's what happens when local parties are allowed to rot away (as they were under the Blair and Brown leaderships; not the first time that such a thing had happened of course - something very similar happened during the first half of the Wilson leadership), basically. Though in many of these areas membership was always low and activists rare/elderly (and extremely left-wing as a general rule!). On the bright side, Labour managed to get a foothold on quite a few districts where they'd previous had no representation and built up decent-sized groups on some where they'd been reduced to a handful of seats (West Norfolk & Kings Lynn, say). Very much phase one of a rebuilding project though. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on June 01, 2011, 12:18:33 PM Labour were miles off running a full slate in some districts in the East Midlands where they do have a sizeable presence (notably in Northants; Northampton itself very much included. Organisational problems), fwiw. So is that the reason for the apparently disappointing Labour results in Northants (except Corby, which I suspect should be treated as somewhat semi-detached from Northants for these purposes) in the above figures? Kettering, Wellingborough and Northampton are all places Labour had MPs in the Blair years, and all look like the Labour revival was weaker than further north. Much of Lincolnshire also seems excessively weak for Labour, but those areas haven't had Labour MPs in recent years. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: joevsimp on June 01, 2011, 12:32:20 PM Council-level results gifs using the figures I posted; Liberal's () If someone could offer a less-limited colour palate (15 or so) for each party I could probably show the changes better. hmm, the only area to hold up in a big way was South Lakeland, are they esecially well dug-in there or could it have something to do with it being Tim Farron's constituency? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Hash on June 01, 2011, 12:46:27 PM Tim Farron seems to have a huge personal vote.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 02, 2011, 09:26:13 AM So is that the reason for the apparently disappointing Labour results in Northants (except Corby, which I suspect should be treated as somewhat semi-detached from Northants for these purposes) in the above figures? Kettering, Wellingborough and Northampton are all places Labour had MPs in the Blair years, and all look like the Labour revival was weaker than further north. In a word: yes. Given the problems Labour had with candidates in Northants, they actually did pretty well, re-establishing themselves in places where there had been wipeouts and building some solid groups where they'd come close to wipeouts (Labour had, for example, been reduced to five seats in Northampton in 2007; now they're up to fifteen. Interestingly enough they actually won a majority of seats within the old county borough; there were less breakthroughs in the newer developments). Anyway, I know it's a cliché but you have to walk before you can run. Yeah, Corby is different; Labour are well-organised there with high (for the way things are now) Party membership rates and union density in the town. Quote Much of Lincolnshire also seems excessively weak for Labour, but those areas haven't had Labour MPs in recent years. By which you mean 'never' or 'since the 1920s'! Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 02, 2011, 09:51:37 AM Tim Farron seems to have a huge personal vote. Which is a remarkable thing when you consider how irritating he is. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 02, 2011, 11:28:06 AM Tim Farron seems to have a huge personal vote. Which is a remarkable thing when you consider how irritating he is. ^This. This is the man who called Labour a bunch of trots at by-election night in Barnsley. I guess people say silly things when they're in 6th place. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on June 02, 2011, 11:40:36 AM It was funny as watching Burham trolling him that night.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on June 02, 2011, 01:39:30 PM Much of Lincolnshire also seems excessively weak for Labour, but those areas haven't had Labour MPs in recent years. By which you mean 'never' or 'since the 1920s'! I thought that might be the case, but couldn't be bothered to check; they came very close to winning Boston & Skegness in both 1997 and 2001, though. I'd still think that Labour ought to have potential to do quite a lot better than they did in Boston, though it's clearly quite a strange place. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on June 02, 2011, 01:44:07 PM Yeah, Corby is different; Labour are well-organised there with high (for the way things are now) Party membership rates and union density in the town. How much does the Scottish influence in Corby have to do with that? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 03, 2011, 12:01:21 PM I thought that might be the case, but couldn't be bothered to check; they came very close to winning Boston & Skegness in both 1997 and 2001, though. And the seat that Boston was in in 1966. The last non-Tory to win a rural Lincolnshire seat was the... er... interesting Denis Kendall. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Denis_Kendall) Quote I'd still think that Labour ought to have potential to do quite a lot better than they did in Boston, though it's clearly quite a strange place. I agree. At present there doesn't seem to be the organisation in place that might capitalise on it, and that's not really acceptable. If you look at all of the Lincolnshire constituencies, only Lincoln and Sc**nthorpe have sizeable CLPs. The other Lindsey-via-'Humberside' CLPs have small memberships (Grimsby included), and the rural constituencies have very low rates. And in the districts there's no Union strength to make up for it. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 03, 2011, 12:17:28 PM Yeah, Corby is different; Labour are well-organised there with high (for the way things are now) Party membership rates and union density in the town. How much does the Scottish influence in Corby have to do with that? I wouldn't have thought a great deal as there's not much of a tradition of active CLPs in Scotland (large memberships there, when they happen, have tended/still tend to be a sign of branch-stacking as much as anything positive). It's probably because of historical ISTC strength and the fact that the town has been in a marginal constituency for decades. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on June 03, 2011, 10:00:22 PM Region;
West Midlands Counties; Staffordshire Warwickshire*** West Midlands Worcestershire Herefordshire Shropshire: Telford & Wrekin Staffordshire: Cannock Chase East Staffordshire Lichfield Newcastle-u-Lyme South Staffordshire Warwickshire: North Warwickshire Rugby Stratford-on-Avon Warwick West Midlands: Birmingham Coventry Dudley Sandwell Solihull Worcestershire: Bromsgrove Malvern Hills Redditch Worcester Wychavon Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on June 03, 2011, 11:41:16 PM Midlands gifs;
Labour: () Tory: () Liberal: () Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: joevsimp on June 04, 2011, 05:22:40 AM Libdems up in Oadby and Wigston?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on June 04, 2011, 12:18:35 PM Yep, I'm not sure why though.
Quote Oadby & Wigston Lib 63.4% (+4.8%) Con 32.1% (-6.0%) Lab 4.5% (+2.9%) [Grn 1.7% (-1.7%)] Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 06, 2011, 10:27:17 AM ()
Manchester. So, yeah. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: minionofmidas on June 06, 2011, 10:36:23 AM Was that Labour map really necessary?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 06, 2011, 10:40:42 AM Was that Labour map really necessary? Haha, quite. The only reason was constituency. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on June 06, 2011, 06:08:16 PM Was that Labour map really necessary? Haha, quite. The only reason was consistency. Fixed that for you :) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 07, 2011, 06:05:06 AM Was that Labour map really necessary? Haha, quite. The only reason was consistency. Fixed that for you :) Oh dear. That typo really does say far too much, doesn't it? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: minionofmidas on June 07, 2011, 02:12:54 PM I didn't point it out because I thought it looked cool.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on June 07, 2011, 04:52:24 PM Region;
East Anglia Counties; Bedfordshire* Cambridgeshire Essex Hertfordshire Norfolk Councils; Bedfordshire: C. Bedfordshire* Bedford Luton Cambridgeshire: Cambridge E. Cambridgeshire Fenland Huntingdonshire Peterborough Essex: Basildon Braintree Brentwood Castle Point Chelmsford Hertfordshire: Broxbourne Dacorum E. Hertfordshire Hertsmere N. Hertfordshire Norfolk: Breckland Broadland Great Yarmouth King's Lynn[...] North Norfolk Suffolk: Babergh Forest Heath Ipswich Mid Suffolk St Edmundsbury Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 08, 2011, 10:57:14 AM 20% in North Norfolk? Confirms a lot of theories, that does. Didn't win any seats, but then the Labour vote there was traditionally quite evenly distributed so that's not a surprise.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on June 09, 2011, 09:55:12 AM That it'd only collapsed to the depths it had in favour of tactical voting to keep the Libs in (à la S/W)?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 09, 2011, 10:32:12 AM That it'd only collapsed to the depths it had in favour of tactical voting to keep the Libs in (à la S/W)? Yes, more or less. The interesting question is whether they can actually do anything with that; the County Council elections aren't so far away now and now they have numbers they can use to work out where to target. Though that assumes that they have the organisational ability to actually do that by then. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 09, 2011, 02:10:28 PM That it'd only collapsed to the depths it had in favour of tactical voting to keep the Libs in (à la S/W)? The lose of support will obviously hurt the Libs come the next election, but it'll be unwind of their Labour tactical voters that will bring the biggest shocks of the night for them (Eastleigh being the first example that came to mind for me). All of this is good news for David Cameron though, of course. And those Liberals who used to tactically vote Labour will probably vote Labour anyway next time round. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on June 09, 2011, 03:35:46 PM Are there many seats where there are tactical Liberal > Labour votes? South Dorset's the obvious example, but the tactical anti-Tory vote usually applies to the South moreso than anywhere else - an area where the Liberals are usually the main challengers.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 09, 2011, 06:35:51 PM I think it was more of a 1997/2001 thing.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on June 13, 2011, 02:25:05 PM Wondering what's happened to Dartford for Labour? BBC say they controlled the council from '66-'83, and yet they're a mile off these days, with no evidence to suggest they're resurgent.
Labour actually matched the Tories for candidates stood, so these are as reflective as you're gonna get for a council result; 2011 results compared to 2007: Con 53.8% (+10.4%) 31 (+5) Now, it's pretty easy to see that a collapse of the substantial EDP vote coupled with UKIP & BNP drops explain the enormous gain for the Tories, but then that'd suggest the Tories hold a majority of the vote? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 13, 2011, 06:32:19 PM Demographic changes would be the obvious answer; Dartford used to be an orbital industrial centre, but is now a primarily a dormitory town. There's no doubt that it's much more Tory than it used to be, and there's little doubt that that's the main reason. There's also been a regional shift over the past forty years that has seen Labour weaken significantly in Kent, Essex and Hertfordshire while they are now much stronger in (for example) Lancashire.
Though I don't know; maybe the BBC made an error as well? The Tories won the Dartford constituency in both 1970 and 1979. Though perhaps there was a strong local machine, like we see in Stevenage now? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on June 18, 2011, 03:22:43 AM A poster on vote-2007, David Ashforth, has put scans of Sheffield local election results back to 1973 (https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B1BWkO-jL09UOWZlMjEyM2UtMTkxNy00M2FkLWE3MjAtNTViNzI2MjBhYmY4&hl=en_US) on Google Docs. (More recent results are on Jonathan Harston's website (http://mdfs.net/Docs/Sheffield/Election/).)
The world has changed a bit: in the 1970s there were six safe Tory wards in Sheffield and Hillsborough ward was a Lab/Con marginal. NB ward boundaries changed quite significantly in 2004. There were also some changes in 1980. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Pete Whitehead on June 22, 2011, 05:04:05 AM Region; Hertfordshire: Broxbourne Dacorum E. Hertfordshire Hertsmere N. Hertfordshire A great job you've done here collating all these results. One thing that worries me is that my figures disagree with yours for Dacorum and for East Hertfordshire (I've only done this for Hertfordshire other than the Met boroughs). It could be my figures are wrong, but I suspect there is a difference in methodology. I have taken the highest polling candidate for each party in each ward rather than using the (admittedly superior) average method. Looking at your Waveney score though it appears you may not have used either of these systems, but rather added all the votes cast, which means that in districts such as these where there are mixtures of 1,2 and 3 members the results can be heavily skewed. (I got involved in a bit of a debate about this re: Gravesham where adding together all votes cast gave Labour a plurality - falsely in my view). If you have used this method the figures would not only be wrong in themselves, but the changes in vote share would be misleading as in the case of Dacorum, the changes would appear to be from the figures here (insert link to 2007 results in Dacorum from Andrew Teale's website*) where top vote method has been used. IN other words you would not be comparing like with like. *I know its only 20 posts, but this is the most annoying rule :( Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on June 22, 2011, 08:20:41 AM Region; Hertfordshire: Broxbourne Dacorum E. Hertfordshire Hertsmere N. Hertfordshire A great job you've done here collating all these results. One thing that worries me is that my figures disagree with yours for Dacorum and for East Hertfordshire (I've only done this for Hertfordshire other than the Met boroughs). It could be my figures are wrong, but I suspect there is a difference in methodology. I have taken the highest polling candidate for each party in each ward rather than using the (admittedly superior) average method. Looking at your Waveney score though it appears you may not have used either of these systems, but rather added all the votes cast, which means that in districts such as these where there are mixtures of 1,2 and 3 members the results can be heavily skewed. (I got involved in a bit of a debate about this re: Gravesham where adding together all votes cast gave Labour a plurality - falsely in my view). If you have used this method the figures would not only be wrong in themselves, but the changes in vote share would be misleading as in the case of Dacorum, the changes would appear to be from the figures here (http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2007/227/ (http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2007/227/)) where top vote method has been used. IN other words you would not be comparing like with like. *I know its only 20 posts, but this is the most annoying rule :( Fixed that for you Pete - and welcome to the forum. I use the top vote method mainly because it's easier to calculate. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Pete Whitehead on June 22, 2011, 08:25:33 AM Thanks Andrew. Yes I do it for the same reason. Its rare that the result will be wildly different between top vote and average method anyway and the top vote certainly saves a lot of time.
Thrasher & Rallings use top vote method in the Local election chronicles, though they did switch at some point from using average votes Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 26, 2011, 12:00:47 PM ()
Bolton. Which also includes Westhoughton, Horwich, Blackrod, etc (but anyone reading this knows that already). The BNP candidate in Tonge with The Haulgh polled 9%, but they ran no one else so get no map. No prizes for guessing the source of the original outline map. Anyway. The winning parties map looks oddly pretty with all the colours and shades contrasting and complementing each other to a greater degree than normal. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on June 26, 2011, 01:04:02 PM () Bolton. Which also includes Westhoughton, Horwich, Blackrod, etc (but anyone reading this knows that already). The BNP candidate in Tonge with The Haulgh polled 9%, but they ran no one else so get no map. No prizes for guessing the source of the original outline map. Anyway. The winning parties map looks oddly pretty with all the colours and shades contrasting and complementing each other to a greater degree than normal. Very pretty. I'm nicking that back off you. Given the amount of stuff I got through my door, lol @ Labour in Smithills getting the lightest red shade. The Lib Dem and Green maps are the most interesting ones for me. Of the five wards with any significant Lib Dem share, four were the ones they were defending and the other is Little Lever, which is very odd as I don't think the Lib Dems have ever come close there. This, lest we forget, is the party that had the most seats on the council from 2004 to 2006. The Green map is best described all over the place. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 01, 2011, 09:08:43 AM The Green map seems to make no sense at all, though I suppose there aren't many places in Bolton that count as 'natural' strong territory for them.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on July 22, 2011, 07:23:06 PM Shameless self-promotion time: for comparison go to http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/councils/2007 for the 2007 results. Or, if you want to download the lot, the 751-page book is now available: http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/pdf/2007/2007.pdf Don't all rush at once :) The book is now finished :) with the last seven counties added to it. 824 pages now and just over 2MB. Same link as before, please form an orderly queue. There are also some spreadsheets you can download the entire 2007 results from: England (http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/pdf/2007/2007-results.csv.zip) Scotland (http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/pdf/scotland07.csv) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 05, 2011, 05:49:54 PM *dusts thread off*
Forgot to thank you for the informative post, Pete. Your assumptions were correct, and the reason why I've re-done the figures (although much more slowly now I've a full-time job) - which I'll be posting over the next few days. North East; Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 05, 2011, 05:53:26 PM That Redcar one's a strange one. I guess the Corus issue is still lingering, although I understand it'd be pathetic of me to think otherwise.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 05, 2011, 06:22:14 PM It's actually my council - the Lib Dem leaflets were pretty blatant in their attempts to appeal to the Tories and by the looks of it, it worked. There was also a threat of closure of several schools (http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/2011/03/21/new-calls-to-abandon-eston-park-school-closure-plan-84229-28372602/2/) which were pretty controversial.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 05, 2011, 07:03:40 PM It's worth noting, of course, that they did nowhere near as well as they did in the General Election.
Anyways, I should make more maps, shouldn't I? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 06, 2011, 08:41:26 AM Indeed.
North West; Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 06, 2011, 09:07:03 AM Ah, reached the character limit! Anyway, I was just going to add on the lists detailing which parties I've categorised as left, other and right in the consolidated results, as I'm not an expert and have basically just Googled, and used surface judgements on what little I could find (and if nothing, stuck them in other) and I know some are debatable, so if any look incorrect feel free to point out (this, of course, is assuming you'll be able to understand the acronyms/abbreviations!)
Left Other Right Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 06, 2011, 10:25:46 AM Yorkshire & Humber Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 06, 2011, 10:31:15 AM North; (North East + North West + Yorkshire & Humber) Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Harry Hayfield on October 06, 2011, 02:18:38 PM Are we shortly going to have the grand total of votes cast in Election 2011 (which will presumably comprise English locals, Scottish Parliament (constituency), Welsh Assembly (constituency) and Northern Ireland (first preferences by party)) and if so, may I be permitted to generate a general election map based on those results?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 06, 2011, 03:09:11 PM I'll be posting the grand total of English locals - the others are piss easy to find, no? In any case you're more than welcome to use my figures for any maps.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 06, 2011, 03:13:09 PM Since many parts of England didn't vote, use the swing to predict, not the raw votes btw...
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 06, 2011, 05:26:43 PM East Midlands; Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Harry Hayfield on October 07, 2011, 03:47:31 AM Since many parts of England didn't vote, use the swing to predict, not the raw votes btw... According to the Telegraph's map, there were only the counties (Northumberland, Shropshire, Isle of Wight, Wiltshire and Cornwall) plus London and a few other councils that didn't vote (but based on the exit poll for the AV referendum it should be easy to make a projected vote share in those council areas) and then add them to the English totals. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 07, 2011, 12:08:54 PM [...]and a few other councils that didn't vote[...] Nuneaton & Bedworth, Oxford, Hastings, Adur, Fareham, Gosport & Cheltenham. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 07, 2011, 12:54:27 PM West Midlands; Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 07, 2011, 12:55:32 PM Midlands; Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 09, 2011, 12:23:32 PM East Anglia; Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 09, 2011, 06:05:03 PM South East; [...] Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 09, 2011, 06:07:17 PM [...]
Hampshire; Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 09, 2011, 06:23:11 PM Excellent stuff :)
And I've just finished something... Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 09, 2011, 06:34:52 PM ()
Donny! Like all Yorkshire metropolitan districts, Doncaster includes much more than the town that it's named for. Most are old mining towns, and these can be divided into an approximate geographical order; the Dearne Valley (or at least the part of it in Donny borough), the cluster north of Donny most of which are relatively new (Askern, Adwick le Street, Bentley, etc) and which form the core of Ed Miliband's constituency, and the rest some of which (like Rossington) are isolated from the rest of the coalfield. Of course there are some non-industrial, and rather staid, towns here and there, the best known of which is Tickhill. Anyways, local politics in Donny is seriously fycked up, but then you all knew that anyway. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Harry Hayfield on October 10, 2011, 03:34:16 AM Good lord, what happened in Spelthorne? I make that an almost 15% swing from Lab to UKIP and yet despite that not a single UKIP candidate was elected.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: minionofmidas on October 10, 2011, 04:05:32 AM Good lord, what happened in Spelthorne? I make that an almost 15% swing from Lab to UKIP and yet despite that not a single UKIP candidate was elected. What are the Torie areas in Doncaster like? At least Doncaster is clearly central and sort of dominant in its Unitary... compare Wakefield. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 10, 2011, 07:23:02 AM Yeah, I checked about Spelthorne. Basically, Labour went from standing at least one candidate in every ward in 2007, to only standing in one ward this year - the mirror image to what UKIP did.
Coincidentally, it's one of those ing stupid councils which post the results without the party the candidate's standing for included. Good stuff, Sibb. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 10, 2011, 08:32:49 AM What are the Torie areas in Doncaster like? Middle class, basically, though in different ways. Finningley includes the bits of Bessacarr that aren't inside the old CB boundary (Bessacarr is a very large and very middle class post-war suburban 'village') and various small commuter settlements, Torne Valley is dominated by Tickhill and Bawtry (which are ancient - and quite rich - market towns) and other smaller places now mostly given over to commuters, while Sprotborough is dominated by middle class (but much more humdrum) Donny suburbs. Read that clockwise. Anyways, none are especially rural, despite the size of some of them. If I remember correctly, the ward in Donny with the most farmers is actually Askern... Quote At least Doncaster is clearly central and sort of dominant in its Unitary... compare Wakefield. This is true. And Donny outgrew the boundaries of its CB a long time ago. Of course the issue with Wakey is its status as the capital of the West Riding. You know that the HQ of West Yorkshire Police is there? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on October 10, 2011, 12:41:29 PM Anyways, local politics in Donny is seriously fycked up, but then you all knew that anyway. True, but I don't think it's particularly reflected in these results. Perhaps once Peter Davies has gone it will return to something close to normality. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 10, 2011, 05:24:18 PM South West; Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 10, 2011, 05:25:38 PM South; Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 10, 2011, 06:08:33 PM England; Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on October 10, 2011, 06:25:56 PM Anyways, local politics in Donny is seriously fycked up, but then you all knew that anyway. True, but I don't think it's particularly reflected in these results. Perhaps once Peter Davies has gone it will return to something close to normality. Did you really just use Peter Davies and normality in the same sentence? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 10, 2011, 06:34:20 PM Ha.
While you're here, I noticed the percentages on your 2007 Epsom and Ewell page didn't add up correctly, if you wanna take a look at it? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 10, 2011, 06:42:49 PM England; With this, adding in Assembly and ScotsParl results we get for Britain (excl. London/places without local elections): England; Obvious caveats being that in Scotland/Wales turnout was higher, people vote differently for devolved body/Westminster. I used the constituency figures, not the top up figures. They're not national figures as London's not included - London would've probably put Labour just about ahead, had it had an election. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 10, 2011, 07:16:24 PM Indeed. There's a lot to be said for participation as well; the Tories vastly outstripped both Labour and Lib Dems in terms of contestants (and they of course vastly outstrip the minor parties) - something which isn't so much a problem in the generals, but can give the wealthier parties an inbuilt advantage when we're calculating total vote. Anyway, maps:
North; Con () Lab () Lib () Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 10, 2011, 07:20:04 PM Midlands;
Con () Lab () Lib () Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 10, 2011, 07:24:03 PM South;
Con () Lab () Lib () Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 10, 2011, 07:25:50 PM One issue is that Labour's organisation at the grassroots level was more-or-less completely ignored under a certain previous leader who may possibly have been the MP for a constituency in East Durham. For a good example of undernomination probably costing seats, check out the results for the Forest Dean (though only the Forest wards). These elections were really just phase one of rebuilding in many districts.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: YL on October 11, 2011, 01:02:22 PM Anyways, local politics in Donny is seriously fycked up, but then you all knew that anyway. True, but I don't think it's particularly reflected in these results. Perhaps once Peter Davies has gone it will return to something close to normality. Did you really just use Peter Davies and normality in the same sentence? LOL. Doncaster may have a referendum next year on abolishing his post (http://www.doncaster.gov.uk/Council_and_Democracy/voting_elections_democracy/Consultation_on_the_Council_future_leadership_model.asp), by the way: Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 11, 2011, 09:02:38 PM If Stoke is anything to go by they'll vote to scrap it.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Harry Hayfield on October 12, 2011, 11:45:21 AM My estimates for a 650 seat House of Commons (based on the English locals, Welsh Assembly, Scottish Parliament and AV referendum) is:
Conservatives 315 seats (+6) Labour 290 seats (+33) Northern Ireland Parties 18 seats (unchanged) Scottish National Party 12 seats (+6) Liberal Democrats 11 seats (-46) Plaid Cymru 3 seats (unchanged) Green Party 1 seat (unchanged) Conservatives short by 11 Conservative + Liberal Democrats + Democratic Unionists = 315 + 11 + 9 = 335 Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 20, 2011, 05:39:45 PM Southampton...
() It's probably fair to say that the ideological gulf between the parties is now wider in Southampton than almost anywhere else in the country. As most British posters will know, the Tory council (elected in a massive 1968-style landslide in 2008) has been at war with its employees for a while now, while Soton Labour has mostly been on the party's Left since the early 1980s. This has produced levels of polarisation in local politics there not seen for decades; the LibDems, once an important player in local politics, have been bundled into irrelevance and saw their vote collapse and all their seats up for election lost, almost as if Soton were Rochdale or somewhere. The elections next year - which will probably see a change in administration as the councillors elected in 2008 are up - will almost certainly be unusually high profile. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: minionofmidas on October 21, 2011, 01:16:58 PM Interesting!
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Leftbehind on October 23, 2011, 01:32:24 AM In terms of seats the Tories didn't do too badly to get their six to Labour's ten - their two gains from the Liberals were won on low thirties, with Labour at late twenties and Green/TUSC vote surpassing 10%. Could've easily been 3/13 when you include the Freemantle seat.
How does Soton Labour differ from Labour as a whole? Are they backing the binmen etc? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on October 23, 2011, 12:31:59 PM In terms of seats the Tories didn't do too badly to get their six to Labour's ten - their two gains from the Liberals were won on low thirties, with Labour at late twenties and Green/TUSC vote surpassing 10%. Could've easily been 3/13 when you include the Freemantle seat. Which is why Labour will probably take control next year - the Tories will be defending 14 out of 16. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: minionofmidas on October 24, 2011, 04:50:11 AM "Eager for sheep"? Have you gone all Newzealander on us?
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 24, 2011, 01:13:29 PM How does Soton Labour differ from Labour as a whole? The general default setting (in terms of internal Labour politics and all that) seems to be soft Left rather than traditional Right. I suspect that that mostly reflects the fact that Whitehead and Denham have been the Party's public faces in the city for nearly thirty years. Quote Are they backing the binmen etc? I'm not sure of the details and haven't followed things all that closely. I know they want things resolved via ACAS, which (IIRC) is what the unions want and what the council doesn't. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on October 24, 2011, 01:23:58 PM "Eager for sheep"? Have you gone all Newzealander on us? This is our team name for the upcoming European Quiz Championships. (We wanted Cymdeithas Cwis Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch but it won't fit on the leaderboard.) Blame the guy in my sig. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 24, 2011, 01:39:02 PM "Eager for sheep"? Have you gone all Newzealander on us? This is our team name for the upcoming European Quiz Championships. (We wanted Cymdeithas Cwis Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch but it won't fit on the leaderboard.) Blame the guy in my sig. You could have shortened it to Llanfairpwll for such purposes? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 31, 2011, 02:50:18 PM ()
Telford & Wrekin as a sort of New Year present. I can explain just about everything. But, damn, is that pretty. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: MaxQue on December 31, 2011, 03:57:14 PM TAWPA?
Telford And Wrekin Payers' Association? Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 31, 2011, 05:32:41 PM Telford & Wrekin People's Association. Local populist outfit that started as a movement against parking charges in Dawley. Includes (or perhaps that ought to be included? They may have dissolved since May; I don't actually know) a fascinating mix of people, from Trots, local busybodies and people who could be described as crypto-fascist without any serious risk of libel. There was a degree of crossover activity and membership (I think) with UKIP. They won a seat off Labour in Dawley Magna ward in 2006 and won the other two seats there in 2007 (and polled very well in some other parts of Telford, including some areas not even in Dawley), but crashed and burned in May.
Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 31, 2011, 05:47:27 PM ()
Slightly odd map from tehwiki which shows the different towns within Telford. Pink = Wellington, Dark Grey = Dawley*, Brown = Madeley, Dark Green = Oakengates, Blue = Hadley, Ketley and Leegomery, Blue Grey = Donnington, Light Green = The Rock, Orange = Admaston (which is functionally part of Wellington), Light Blue = Broseley, Red = Shifnal (what the hell is that doing on the map?), and Yellow = places where there was nowt before the New Town. Including the 'town centre' and related hellholes, but also the rather posh suburb of Priorslee. Broseley and Shifnal are not covered by T&W (stupidly in the case of Broseley), while it also includes some areas that are clearly not part of Telford, notably the Newport area (the posh town in the north of the election maps). *Though the south-eastern bit is really Stirchley. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 06, 2012, 01:50:37 PM The roughest city in the known universe, or 'Salford' as it's known to locals:
() As astonishing as it may seem from the above maps, the LibDems were defending multiple seats in the city. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on March 06, 2012, 03:53:38 PM I get the impression that map isn't going to change much for a while. The weakest Conservative ward - Walkden South - actually swung towards the Tories between 2010 and 2011.
The Tory strength in Kersal - at the top right - is explained by the very high Jewish population. Eccles ward (in the centre of the map) has a middle-classish area in it called Monton, which may also explain the high UKIP vote. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 06, 2012, 06:20:52 PM Yeah, not a single close ward. Purely ritualistic elections ahoy!
Kersal is an interesting one; as well as including a massive Hasidic community, it is also very middle class (especially for Salford) though leaning professional rather than managerial (unlike the solid block of blue out west). Still can't decide whether it's Tory strength in that part of the conurbation that's the weird thing, or that Labour held the ward throughout 2006-2008. Elsewhere the only odd thing (given the overall picture) is Tory weakness just north of Eccles which is comparatively prosperous, but that can be explained by (now former) LibDem strength. No, not quite true. A fairly good showing for the LibDem candidate in Worsley. Title: Re: English local elections 2011 Post by: Pete Whitehead on March 14, 2012, 04:35:35 AM Telford & Wrekin as a sort of New Year present. I can explain just about everything. But, damn, is that pretty. Can you explain the seemingly strange Labour strength in Ironbridge Gorge ward? Obviously it was historically an industrial area, but looking on Google maps it looks all very pleaseant, picture-postcard now. Looking at the census stats its very owner-occupied, very middle class. Muesli eaters? I note there was a swing from Labour to Conservative in 2011, with a new Labour candidate, but still.. Incidentally I had a little discussion about this area recently in another place htt p://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/thewrekin/ I'd be interested in any thoughts you have about that - its various posts from 12th March onwards (you'd have to sift through a load of crap about voting systems) |