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Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: pbrower2a on April 16, 2011, 12:35:17 PM



Title: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 16, 2011, 12:35:17 PM
In recent weeks we have paid much attention to how the President rates on statewide approval polls. Such is obviously relevant to whether he can be re-elected. Here I suggest a different approach: how state governors are doing. I am going to figure that a highly-popular Democratic governor might help President Obama get elected in the state, and that a highly-unpopular Democratic Governor would hurt his effort in that state.   I will use red for a popular Democratic Governor (one with an approval 'surplus') and orange for an unpopular Democratic Governor (with an approval 'deficit').

In contrast, I would expect a highly-popular Republican Governor (blue) to make an Obama victory difficult in his state, and a highly-unpopular  Republican governor (green) to make an Obama victory more likely.

I am going to blank out a state or district with white if it has no governor (DC, obviously) or an independent Governor, and revert a state to gray should the existing governor leave office (death, resignation, new election, or impeachment). Yellow is for a tie in approval or disapproval, whether the Governor is a Democrat or a Republican, Significantly, I am NOT going to rely so much upon  raw approval as I am going to rate governors on deficits or surpluses of approval. Some Governors are better known in some states than are some others. A governor with a 37-31 split between approval and disapproval can be doing very well, but one with a 42-47 isn't doing so well. There will be no averaging, and partisan polls will be rejected.

I have no intention, so far, of showing that a Governor (should the case so be) either faces a criminal investigation or mass protests in opposition to his policies. Such will surely show in the likely deficit of support.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

No governor or an independent governor ... white

The map above shows the month in which a State or district is polled.  Letters represent months from January (A) to December (L). None shall be shown from before February 2011 except if the Governor has been re-elected or continues from an earlier election (people in the state arguably knew what they were doing).

For now I am starting with a blank except with DC and RI blanked out:

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Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red.  

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Now show electoral votes. Most obviously I can start with zero gubernatorial advantage for DC and RI:

No advantage                                                7
 


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 16, 2011, 02:59:59 PM
OK -- four states as illustrations.

All of these states are from PPP. Bev Perdue is in hot water in North Carolina:

Quote
North Carolina Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?
Approve................. 30%
Disapprove............ 52%
Not sure ................ 18%

March 17-20, 2011
Survey of 584 North Carolina voters

Pennsylvania, where Governor Tom Corbett got off to a poor start:

Quote
Pennsylvania Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Tom Corbett’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 34%
Disapprove...................................................... 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 22%

April 7-10, 2011
Survey of 593 Pennsylvania voters

Where an incumbent Democrat looks as if he could romp to re-election if he so desires:

Quote
New Hampshire Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Lynch’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 58%
Disapprove...................................................... 33%
Not Sure.......................................................... 9%

March 31-April 3, 2011
Survey of 769 New Hampshire voters

The end date for the poll gives the month, so this one is from April.

Now, with a successful GOP Governor (Bob McDonnell in Virginia):

Virginia Survey Results
Quote
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bob
McDonnell’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 46%
Disapprove...................................................... 34%
Not sure .......................................................... 19%

February 24-27, 2011
Survey of 524 Virginia voters

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

No governor or an independent governor ... white

The map above shows the month in which a State or district is polled.  Letters represent months from January (A) to December (L). None shall be shown from before February 2011.

For now I am starting with a blank except with DC and RI blanked out:

(
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Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow. 

(
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No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                             24
GOP advantage                                                 28         
 



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: California8429 on April 16, 2011, 03:18:14 PM
Very interesting. I look forward to seeing updates on the map


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 16, 2011, 04:19:38 PM
Very interesting. I look forward to seeing updates on the map

Thank you.


The states that I showed are all in apparent contention.  I think that in a state like New Hampshire, the President could make several trips to aid Democratic candidates to challenge some certifiably unpopular Representatives in Congress if the state is even on the fringe of contention. President Obama does extremely well in reaching mass crowds, and New Hampshire has its population concentrated in a relatively small area. In Pennsylvania, an unpopular Governor could be trouble for the Republican nominee who can't afford to be seen with an unpopular Governor. The inverse applies to President Obama in North Carolina even if polls suggest him doing reasonably well there.

The Governor of Virginia seems so far to have avoided the snares that have sprung upon some new governors. He could be a strong asset to the Republican nominee in a close race in that state.

PPP will be polling Iowa, a state that, like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, has a new Republican Governor replacing a Democrat. Will this new governor be as unpopular as Walker, Snyder, Kasich, Corbett, or Scott? The demographics of  Wisconsin are very similar to those of Wisconsin, and you can be sure that the state of Iowa offers little margin of error for a Republican governor.   

I am going to make one modification: I will include polls for continuing or re-elected Governors from January. Arizonans and Texans know their Governors very well.     


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 16, 2011, 04:34:00 PM
Some old but eligible polls from PPP. PPP gave an early poll for Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin, but Rasmussen put out a poll that supplanted that one.  

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

The map above shows the month in which a State or district is polled.  Letters represent months from January (A) to December (L). None shall be shown from before February 2011 (modification -- I will accept January 2011 polls for someone re-elected).
Mississippi: Barbour (R), 58-24, March
Georgia, Deal (R) 35-31, April
Michigan, Snyder (R) 33-50, March
Missouri, Nixon (D) 45-38, March
Ohio, Kasich (R) 35-54, March
Florida, Scott (R), 32-55, March
Maine, LePage (R), 43-48, March
Colorado, Hickenlooper (D), 52-23, February
New Mexico, Martinez (R), 52-35, February
Arizona, Brewer (R) 47-45, January*
Texas, Perry (R) 65-26, January*
Tennessee, Bredeson (D) 63-19, February  

* re-elected.

There was a later poll by Rasmussen for Scott Walker in Wisconsin, so it is pointless to show the PPP poll for it. Rasmussen showed abysmal ratings for Walker.

(
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Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
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No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         111
GOP advantage                                             103       
 


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Yelnoc on April 16, 2011, 10:10:24 PM
Oh yes, this is quite interesting.  I imagine a composite of this map and your map of presidential approval ratings by state might make a very accurate prediction, assuming no huge events and no off-the-wall candidates/scenarios.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 16, 2011, 11:47:51 PM
Oh yes, this is quite interesting.  I imagine a composite of this map and your map of presidential approval ratings by state might make a very accurate prediction, assuming no huge events and no off-the-wall candidates/scenarios.

Thank you.

I'm not completely sure of what I am measuring here. I see some strange results; for example, I see the Democratic Governor of Tennessee and the Republican Governor of New Mexico doing anomalously well. Maybe a 47% approval rating for the President won't mean as much in states very different in how the Parties are seen in a state -- that the same level of approval for the President might be more valuable in Pennsylvania than in Virginia. Likewise, with different levels of identity with the Governor as a partisan politician in the same way, one Republican Governor might find it easier to cast barbs at the President and get away with it than others. Contrast Rick Perry (Texas) to Jan Brewer (Arizona). Both Governors may be pieces of work, but as it is, Rick Perry has more residual credibility in Texas than does Jan Brewer in Arizona.

Any Republican nominee for President will need to win Florida and at least one of a swath of states from the Minneapolis-to-Philadelphia corridor as well as Florida to have a real shot at unseating President Obama. I see none of Walker, Snyder, Kasich, Corbett, and Scott who can be of any help to any Republican candidate. In a close election for President, such could make all the difference in the world. Unless  something changes drastically in North Carolina, Bev Purdue will be no help to President Obama. 

There will be huge events. Someone in high office could have a huge scandal. Congress matters, too. Then the performance and personality of the President come into play.

I don't know what I have here. I may have something far more relevant to the fate of elected Governors or Senators than to the President.  I may have a useful leading indicator of the 2012 election -- or nothing more than statistical noise. And, yes, I am at the mercy of pollsters. I have huge gaps in states of interest -- Indiana, Iowa (until PPP brings out its report),  Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, South Carolina, and both Dakotas. 


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 17, 2011, 12:34:54 AM
Two big polls in the Northeast -- by Quinnipiac.

Quote
Cuomo better liked in NY than Christie in NJ

BY Ken Lovett

Another day, another strong post-budget poll for Gov. Cuomo.

According to the Quinnipiac University poll released this morning, Cuomo's job approval rating is at 64%-16%. That's up considerably from 56%-15% in late February and higher than any other governor in any of the six states polled by Quinnipiac so far this year.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican who like Democrat Cuomo has been mentioned as a potential presidential contender, had the next highest rating--52%-40%. The other states Quinnipiac has polled are Connecticut, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. It will be surveying Virginia in upcoming weeks.

"Gov. Andrew Cuomo comes out of the budget vote--usually a punishing time for politicians--with impressive job-approval numbers,' said Quinnipiac poll director Maurice Carroll. "New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie may be getting the national attention, but the guy next door is doing better with home state voters. We'll see how Crhistie does as he wages the budget battle of Trenton."

While the relative lack of budget acrimony helped the Legislature achieve its highest rating since 2009, voters by a sizeable 58% to 29% margin still disapprove of the job the Legislature is doing.

Cuomo and the Legislature reduced a $10 billion deficit by cutting overall spending and slashing education and health care funding while not raising broad-based taxes or undertaking new borrowing.

New Yorkers by a 47% to 31% margin approve of the new budget, with 47% saying  Cuomo won on the merits, 25% saying he used intimidation, and 8% citing his charm.

A third say the new budget still spends too much, 26% say it spends too little, and 30% the right amount.

Despite the on-time budget, just 34% say they are very or somewhat satisfied with the way things are going in New York compared to 65% who are somewhat or very dissatisfied.

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2011/04/cuomo-better-liked-in-ny-than-christie-in-nj

To be sure, President Obama loses New York only in a huge landslide, and Chris Christie couldn't be strong enough to help a Republican nominee for president win a state tailor-made for President Obama. 

I'm going to take this as an indication of approval even if it is "re-elect/ elect someone else" for Louisiana:

Quote
Jindal is favored by 49 percent of voters in a telephone poll of 600 voters conducted Jan. 10-14 by Market Research Insight on behalf of a group of business people. The survey found 40 percent would prefer to vote for someone else while the remaining 11 percent are uncertain.

This is a January poll, but Bobby Jindal continues in office as Governor, which was good enough for me for Governors in Arizona and Texas. 

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/01/nearly_half_favor_gov_bobby_ji.html

 
No way do I see President Obama winning Louisiana unless the opponent is Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
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Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
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No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         140
GOP advantage                                             125       
 


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Tender Branson on April 17, 2011, 12:41:20 AM
Tennessee is wrong on the map.

The new governor is Bill Haslam (R) and he has sky-high approvals.

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bill Haslam’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 17%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TN_0217.pdf


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 17, 2011, 02:51:08 AM
Tennessee is wrong on the map.

The new governor is Bill Haslam (R) and he has sky-high approvals.

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bill Haslam’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 17%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TN_0217.pdf

The correction shall be made.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
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Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
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No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         129
GOP advantage                                             136       
 



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Nichlemn on April 17, 2011, 09:51:45 AM
This seems it might be a lot more useful in about a year's time. Currently, there are a lot of governors who haven't had much time to do much.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Yelnoc on April 17, 2011, 09:57:40 AM
To test the theory, here is a composite map of Obama's approvals and the Governors' approvals.  In instances where a state lacked gubernatorial approvals or the governor was an independent or non-existent, I assumed that they mirror the president's popularity and vice versa, which likely introduced some errors.

  0.0%   to    1%            white
  1.1%   to    5%       ... color 30%
  5.1%   to   10%       ... color 40%
10.1%   to  15%       ... color 50%
15.1% or greater      ... color 60%
Washington D.C           red 90%

(
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Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 17, 2011, 01:17:54 PM
To test the theory, here is a composite map of Obama's approvals and the Governors' approvals.  In instances where a state lacked gubernatorial approvals or the governor was an independent or non-existent, I assumed that they mirror the president's popularity and vice versa, which likely introduced some errors.

  0.0%   to    1%            white
  1.1%   to    5%       ... color 30%
  5.1%   to   10%       ... color 40%
10.1%   to  15%       ... color 50%
15.1% or greater      ... color 60%
Washington D.C           red 90%

(
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Interesting application.

In essence, the Governor is almost invariably the most visible politician in any State --except for the President of the United States. Name recognition is a huge asset if one is John Hickenlooper (so far). If the Governor is very popular, then he is an asset to the Presidential nominee of the same Party. If he is unpopular, then he is an easy target for the President or Presidential nominee from the other Party. Mitt Romney, if the nominee, might be leery of appearing on the same stage with Scott Walker or Rick Scott but have no problem appearing on the same stage with Chris Christie or Bob McDonnell. Everybody loves a winner, and a sure orphan is an orphan. It's hard to undo a first impression, and several new Republican governors have proved decisive -- and very wrong. Any Democrat in Wisconsin is going to be able to use the name "Scott Walker" as a villain to be derided, in contrast to himself.

The coloring for Iowa is a couple days premature; PPP will have a poll on Iowa released sometime this week.

This seems it might be a lot more useful in about a year's time. Currently, there are a lot of governors who haven't had much time to do much.

Such may be very much so. It's remarkable that neighboring Arizona and New Mexico appear in the same light-blue shade. Governor Jan Brewer may have gone as far as she can with anti-immigrant demagoguery, and if that backfires it will be a disaster for Republicans in Arizona. Such could be relevant to an open Senate seat as well as to the Presidency. Governor Martinez in New Mexico may prove a moderate voice within the GOP and partially negate the hold of President Obama on the votes of the large Mexican-American minority in New Mexico. 

Some Governors are wise strategists; some are simply survivors who know when to back off; some are catastrophic blunderers. Sometimes the popularity or unpopularity reflects something else that might hurt a President (namely, the economy). There is still plenty of time for scandals and other political disasters -- and for economic improvement or deterioration.   


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on April 17, 2011, 01:26:52 PM
This seems it might be a lot more useful in about a year's time. Currently, there are a lot of governors who haven't had much time to do much.

This isn't useful at all. There's absolutely no correlation between governor approval and presidential approval/future vote, and its absolutely fraudulent to suggest anything of the kind.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: ilikeverin on April 17, 2011, 02:39:17 PM
This seems it might be a lot more useful in about a year's time. Currently, there are a lot of governors who haven't had much time to do much.

This isn't useful at all. There's absolutely no correlation between governor approval and presidential approval/future vote, and its absolutely fraudulent to suggest anything of the kind.

So, we have two rival claims.  Anyone want to test them?  Or know whether they've been tested?


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 17, 2011, 04:36:20 PM
This seems it might be a lot more useful in about a year's time. Currently, there are a lot of governors who haven't had much time to do much.

This isn't useful at all. There's absolutely no correlation between governor approval and presidential approval/future vote, and its absolutely fraudulent to suggest anything of the kind.

If President Obama has strong approvals in New Jersey, then any influence of whatever popularity Chris Christie has upon the election is effectively neutralized. Likewise, should the Governor of some state that can't elect any Democrat have a Governor mired in a scandal reminiscent of Mark Sanford taking a hike on the Appalachian Trail and ending up in Argentina, then President Obama still loses the state.

So, we have two rival claims.  Anyone want to test them?  Or know whether they've been tested?

I have simply placed a hypothesis here. It can be tested in 2012. Intuitively I suspect that Chris Christie has no way of preventing a win by President Obama of New Jersey even if the Governor is wildly popular. For all I know, it might have more influence on Senatorial and House races than on the Presidential race. The gubernatorial advantage is probably far less than the Favorite Son effect.  Hardly anything can stop a President who has a 50% approval rating going into the last few weeks of the electoral season.

My map suggests that the GOP is in deep trouble in what have long been considered swing states, most notably Florida and the arc from the Twin Cities to Philadelphia -- but that wins for President Obama in Virginia and North Carolina may have been flukes.

I have little idea of what I have here. Maybe it is too crude to be valuable. We shall see in 2012. It could be easy for a Democratic politician to say "Scott Walker" and conjure the image of some caped villain tying Pauline to a railroad track as a locomotive comes close. (That is a silent film image, but it remains effective).



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: ilikeverin on April 17, 2011, 07:25:36 PM
This seems it might be a lot more useful in about a year's time. Currently, there are a lot of governors who haven't had much time to do much.

This isn't useful at all. There's absolutely no correlation between governor approval and presidential approval/future vote, and its absolutely fraudulent to suggest anything of the kind.

If President Obama has strong approvals in New Jersey, then any influence of whatever popularity Chris Christie has upon the election is effectively neutralized. Likewise, should the Governor of some state that can't elect any Democrat have a Governor mired in a scandal reminiscent of Mark Sanford taking a hike on the Appalachian Trail and ending up in Argentina, then President Obama still loses the state.

So, we have two rival claims.  Anyone want to test them?  Or know whether they've been tested?

I have simply placed a hypothesis here. It can be tested in 2012.

Or, it can be tested now, by comparing gubernatorial approval ratings in 2008 to Obama v. McCain in 2008, gubernatorial approval ratings in 2004 to Bush v. Kerry in 2004, and so on and so forth.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Nichlemn on April 18, 2011, 12:59:20 AM
This seems it might be a lot more useful in about a year's time. Currently, there are a lot of governors who haven't had much time to do much.

This isn't useful at all. There's absolutely no correlation between governor approval and presidential approval/future vote, and its absolutely fraudulent to suggest anything of the kind.

If President Obama has strong approvals in New Jersey, then any influence of whatever popularity Chris Christie has upon the election is effectively neutralized. Likewise, should the Governor of some state that can't elect any Democrat have a Governor mired in a scandal reminiscent of Mark Sanford taking a hike on the Appalachian Trail and ending up in Argentina, then President Obama still loses the state.

So, we have two rival claims.  Anyone want to test them?  Or know whether they've been tested?

I have simply placed a hypothesis here. It can be tested in 2012.

Or, it can be tested now, by comparing gubernatorial approval ratings in 2008 to Obama v. McCain in 2008, gubernatorial approval ratings in 2004 to Bush v. Kerry in 2004, and so on and so forth.

Sounds like something Nate Silver might be good at. Try emailing him and he might write an article on it.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 21, 2011, 05:23:42 AM
New one, Quinnipiac, New Jersey.


A new Quinnipiac University poll finds New Jersey voters do not believe Gov. Chris Christie's (R) claim that he could beat President Obama in a 2012 match up and back the president by 52% to 39%.

Obama also tops Christie in job approval with 51% to 45% as compared to the governor's split approval at 47% to 46%.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
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No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         129
GOP advantage                                             136       
 



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Gustaf on April 21, 2011, 07:33:33 AM
If a state is Democratic, then it is likely that it will have a popular Democratic senator and that a Democratic presidential candidate will do well there. So it can't really be tested. We can observe that it has very small explanatory power just by looking at states like Wyoming or Vermont in recent presidential elections.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 21, 2011, 02:59:40 PM
If a state is Democratic, then it is likely that it will have a popular Democratic senator and that a Democratic presidential candidate will do well there. So it can't really be tested. We can observe that it has very small explanatory power just by looking at states like Wyoming or Vermont in recent presidential elections.

Likely -- but far from certain. Maine has two Republican Senators, but it hasn't voted for a Republican nominee for President since 1984.  The "Tea Party Republican" governor has probably lost popularity since March. Except for Colorado, New Hampshire, and New York, all of the states in the two deeper shades of red have very unpopular Republican governors. Anyone who thinks that current governors of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida will be the sorts of people that Presidential candidates will want to be seen with expects miracles on their behalf before 2012. Michigan is decidedly more D than average, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are slightly more D than average, and Ohio and Florida are almost even but slightly more R than average.  Governors in trouble are usually either corrupt, incompetent, or outside the political mainstream in the state. These are the sorts that opposition candidates can run against successfully. A Republican nominee probably doesn't now want an invitation to share a podium with Scott Walker, Rick Scott, Rick Snyder, John Kasich, or Tom Corbett. Such is unlikely to change. But contrast Virginia, where the Republican Governor still has appreciable popularity. Appearing on the podium with him might be good politics. If the President's statewide approval going into the election is like this, with states as they are:

Wisconsin 48
Pennsylvania 48
Missouri 48
Arizona 48
Louisiana 48
Virginia 48

and the perceptions of existing Governors then remains as they are at the most recent poll, then I would expect President Obama to win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, lose Louisiana and Virginia, and have huge question marks on Missouri and Arizona. The Party 'brand' usually revolves around first the President, and then the Governor.

Now that's not to say that a Presidential nominee should rely entirely upon the perceptions of State governors to win any state. But such a perception might shape where the nominee campaigns and where his advertising budget goes.   

Although Senators may have more national recognition, state Governors are the best-known political figures inside their states.  Except for the President they draw more attention from the media within their state than any other political figure within their state. People still read newspapers and watch television, mostly within their own states or just across a state line. 

 


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Yelnoc on April 21, 2011, 06:20:18 PM
With that poll, New Jersey moves to a more manageable shade of light red.  Thanks for posting Obama's state approval with the Governor's approval.

  0.0%   to    1%            white
  1.1%   to    5%       ... color 30%
  5.1%   to   10%       ... color 40%
10.1%   to  15%       ... color 50%
15.1% or greater      ... color 60%
Washington D.C           red 90%

(
)


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 26, 2011, 11:44:45 AM
New one, Quinnipiac, New Jersey.


A new Quinnipiac University poll finds New Jersey voters do not believe Gov. Chris Christie's (R) claim that he could beat President Obama in a 2012 match up and back the president by 52% to 39%.

Obama also tops Christie in job approval with 51% to 45% as compared to the governor's split approval at 47% to 46%.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         129
GOP advantage                                             135       
 



It's now time to separate the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 8
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Modest 18
Huge 135

 


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 27, 2011, 02:09:00 AM

Pardon the spacing, but it would seem that about every new Governor seems to be having problems in keeping up popularity. Not Governor Jerry Brown in California.

Jerry Brown is definitely not riding his popularity from about 30 years ago now. He qualifies as a new governor because of a huge gap between being Governor of California around 1980 and now.   

Strng Smwt Smwt Strng DK/ Total Total -
App App Disap Disap Ref App Disap Disap
13 Jerry Brown as governor
Total ..............................................................18 26 15 18 23 44 33 11
White .............................................................18 26 14 20 22 43 35 9
Latino.............................................................21 22 19 13 26 43 31 11

That's a 44-33 gap in  favor of Governor Brown, and it makes sense even from a partisan poll.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         129
GOP advantage                                             135       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 8
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Modest 18
Huge 180

 


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 27, 2011, 02:45:16 AM
 Iowa, PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_0422.pdf

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Quote
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 41%
Disapprove...................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q2 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Chet
Culver or Republican Terry Branstad?
Chet Culver..................................................... 48%
Terry Branstad ................................................ 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

First the good news for the new Republican Governor of Iowa: he's not doing anywhere nearly as badly in winning over the electorate as new Governors of Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Now the bad news: he's underwater, and it is highly unlikely that he could help any Republican nominee for President in November 2012.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         190
GOP advantage                                             135       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 8
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 18
Huge 180

 



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 27, 2011, 05:55:03 PM
Quote
West Virginia Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Earl
Ray Tomblin’s job performance?
Approve................. 49%
Disapprove............ 24%
Not sure ................ 27%

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/04/dems-favored-for-wv-gov.html

For a state bordering on two states with new and unpopular Republican governors (Ohio and Pennsylvania), the new Governor of West Virginia is doing very well.

Oh -- he's a Democrat! Maybe that makes a difference.

President Obama still seems to be the wrong sort of Democrat to win the Presidency with the aid of West Virginia. He lost this state by a huge margin in 2008. With the right Democrat, West Virginia is a legitimate swing state -- in 2016.

The state used to be one of the most reliable states for Democratic nominees for President. Carter won it in 1980 and Dukakis won it in 1988 in blowout wins for Reagan and the elder Bush, respectively. It is not a true Southern state in that race has little influence upon political life. It has two Democratic Senators, Joe Manchin a decisive winner in a year of a Republican tide.   

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             135       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 8
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 14
Huge 180

 



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Yelnoc on April 27, 2011, 06:19:46 PM
Updated to include the Iowa and West Virginia governor approval ratings and Obama's approval in Nevada.  I think the best way to think of this map is as an overlay of the Presidential Approval Ratings.  Maybe on a whole slightly more accurate but another overlay (IMO one of Generic R's approvals) is needed to filter out the statistical noise.

  0.0%   to    1%            white
  1.1%   to    5%       ... color 30%
  5.1%   to   10%       ... color 40%
10.1%   to  15%       ... color 50%
15.1% or greater      ... color 60%
Washington D.C           red 90%

(
)


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 27, 2011, 09:37:26 PM
Updated to include the Iowa and West Virginia governor approval ratings and Obama's approval in Nevada.  I think the best way to think of this map is as an overlay of the Presidential Approval Ratings.  Maybe on a whole slightly more accurate but another overlay (IMO one of Generic R's approvals) is needed to filter out the statistical noise.

PPP polled Nevada and West Virginia last weekend and will surely release results of approval of the Governor of Nevada and of President Obama in West Virginia. I don't expect President Obama to crack even 40% approval in West Virginia -- as I say, he is the wrong sort of Democrat for West Virginia, too much the egghead to win the state.

I wouldn't bother with "Mr. Generic Republican", last known as Ronald Reagan. Reagan had no clear association with any region of the US; if there were such a candidate and there were an election today, "Mr. Generic Republican" would win. "Mr. Generic Republican" is even less relevant than at least two histrionic characters who have gone off the deep end, let alone some fantastically-unpopular Republican Governors.   One can't rule out some electoral disasters for the GOP -- yet -- but the appearance of a miracle candidate who can defeat President Obama is unlikely. The two likely candidates doing best are Washington outsiders who have scrupulously committed themselves to bland positions.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 03, 2011, 03:37:55 PM
Nevada, PPP. Brian Sandoval is doing fine despite being one of the new Republican governors:

Quote
Nevada Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Sandoval’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 18%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rory Reid?
Favorable........................................................ 31%
Unfavorable .................................................... 53%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q3 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Rory
Reid or Republican Brian Sandoval?
Rory Reid........................................................ 41%
Brian Sandoval ............................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             141       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 14
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 14
Huge 180

 




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Yelnoc on May 03, 2011, 07:58:19 PM
Updated to include Nevada.

  0.0%   to    1%            white
  1.1%   to    5%       ... color 30%
  5.1%   to   10%       ... color 40%
10.1%   to  15%       ... color 50%
15.1% or greater      ... color 60%
Washington D.C           red 90%

(
)


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 04, 2011, 04:04:49 PM
Missouri, PPP

Quote
Missouri Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jay
Nixon’s job performance?
Approve................. 48%
Disapprove............ 29%
Not sure ................ 23%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MO_0504513.pdf

It looks as if Governor Nixon could help any Democratic candidate in 2012 -- including President Obama and Senator McCaskill.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             141       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 14
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 4
Huge 190

 





Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 06, 2011, 07:52:10 PM
Arizona update. Very close to a tie, although essentially the same as in January.

Quote
Arizona Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jan
Brewer’s job performance?
Approve................. 46%
Disapprove............ 45%
Not sure ................ 9%

This state may be tiring of Republican pols:

Quote
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
McCain’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 34%
Disapprove...................................................... 53%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Kyl's job performance?
Approve ................. .42%
Disapprove............. .46%
Not sure ................. .13%

The limited popularity of the Governor may be less relevant than the fading evaluations of the state's two veteran Senators.  I can now understand why Jon Kyl isn't running for re-election.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_0505.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             141       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 14
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 4
Huge 190


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on May 07, 2011, 01:34:26 PM
This seems it might be a lot more useful in about a year's time. Currently, there are a lot of governors who haven't had much time to do much.

This isn't useful at all. There's absolutely no correlation between governor approval and presidential approval/future vote, and its absolutely fraudulent to suggest anything of the kind.

Well, it depends. If West Virginia or Arkansas has a Democratic governor with high approval ratings, it's not going to be of very much help to Obama. However, if a polarizing, ideological figure like Scott Walker has low approval ratings, it's going to help him quite a bit. If Chris Christie has high approvals in NJ, it might help the Republican candidate, though not enough to make a difference.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 08, 2011, 05:39:54 AM
This seems it might be a lot more useful in about a year's time. Currently, there are a lot of governors who haven't had much time to do much.

This isn't useful at all. There's absolutely no correlation between governor approval and presidential approval/future vote, and its absolutely fraudulent to suggest anything of the kind.

Well, it depends. If West Virginia or Arkansas has a Democratic governor with high approval ratings, it's not going to be of very much help to Obama. However, if a polarizing, ideological figure like Scott Walker has low approval ratings, it's going to help him quite a bit. If Chris Christie has high approvals in NJ, it might help the Republican candidate, though not enough to make a difference.

Also... notice that I have Virginia in deep blue for now, with a Governor who has (so far as the latest poll shows) enough popularity to be of help to a Republican nominee for President. At the least, a Democrat (whether Obama or the Senate candidate) can't simply go on the stump, call out the name "Bob McDonnell" and elicit jeers at an unpopular Governor. Such might be red meat for the Democratic base, but it would be unattractive to independents. A Republican nominee can appear often on the podium soon after the Governor and use his popularity. Contrast Rick Scott in Florida, who can now easily be used as an illustration in Florida of all that is wrong with the GOP.  Unless miracles happen for Governor Rick Scott, any Republican nominee will want to stay clear of him. Florida and Virginia are both legitimate swing states, but with the same sort of approval going into October 2012, President Obama could conceivably win Florida and lose Virginia. If that level of approval is 50% or so. then he wins anyway, but if it is 47% or so, then the desirability of a Governor of the opposite Party may make the difference in the state. 

But even if the difference is of intensity of popularity of a Governor,  then the Presidential race may still hinge upon the effectiveness of the Governor as a politician. This model suggests that a state that was close in 2008 that has a popular Democratic governor (Nixon in Missouri) might offer a good chance for a pick-up in a state generally understood to be (Lean-R). But with Republican Governors with shaky support in states that should reasonably be Lean R (Arizona, Georgia), things might not go as smoothly as they do in Texas for a Republican nominee.   


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 10, 2011, 10:17:22 PM
Belated discovery -- Quinnipiac, Connecticut: Rules are rules, and I'm not going to suppress a discovery.

Quote
March 9, 2011 - No Honeymoon For Connecticut's New Governor, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Budget Plan Taxes Too Much, Unfair To Them


Connecticut's new governor, Dannel Malloy, gets no honeymoon as voters disapprove 40 - 35 percent of the job he is doing, with 25 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             148       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 21
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 4
Huge 190



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 13, 2011, 05:13:19 PM
Zogby update of New Jersey. The President's approval took off, but gubernatorial approval didn't change. Nothing changes except the letter for the month.

http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/hughescenter/content/docs/Hughes_Center_Poll_Says_Obama_Still_Strong_in_NJ_2011_0513rev.pdf


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         200
GOP advantage                                             148       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 21
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 4
Huge 190




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 16, 2011, 06:21:17 AM
Hawaii checks in:

Quote
()

(Gov. Neil Abercrombie)

50% Approve
36% Disapprove

The poll of 614 registered voters was conducted by Ward Research for Hawaii News Now and the Honolulu Star-Advertiser.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/14649236/hawaii-poll-half-of-island-voters-approve-of-governor-in-first-six-months-of-term

Hawaii has monotonous weather and monotonous politics.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         204
GOP advantage                                             148       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 21
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 4
Huge 194




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 18, 2011, 08:50:49 AM
Quote
Approval Ratings for Governor Paul LePage

Early into his tenure as governor, only about 3-in-10 Mainers express approval for the job Governor LePage is doing as Governor; more than half (54%) disapprove of the job the Governor is doing.

The Governor’s approval ratings are in line with those observed for Governor Baldacci prior to leaving office.

While 6-in-10 Republicans approve of Governor LePage’s job performance, nearly 8-in- 10 Democrats (77%) disapprove. Independents are also likely to disapprove of the governor’s job performance (63%).

Perspectives on the Opportunity to Vote Again for Maine Governor

When asked how they would vote in the election for Maine Governor if they had the opportunity to vote again, fully 7-in-10 residents polled say they would vote for the same person, while about one-quarter claim they would vote for someone different.

Southern Maine residents and self-reported Democrats and Independents are significantly more likely than others to say they would change their vote, while Republicans would be more likely to vote for the same person again.

Among respondents who would change their vote for Governor if given the opportunity, nearly half say they would vote for Eliot Cutler.

Men, more highly educated residents (i.e. have a college degree), and those living in Southern Maine are significantly more likely to say they would vote for Cutler.

Notably, a sizable bloc (24%) of respondents who say they would change their vote “don’t know” who they would vote for.

http://www.criticalinsights.com/assets/CriticalInsightsTrackingSurveySpring2011.pdf

My comment:

Governor LePage got his chance to impress Maine voters -- and has likely become an unwitting asset to President Obama and poison for Senator Snowe.  This is a huge drop from the results of a PPP poll from March.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         204
GOP advantage                                             148       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 88
Modest 21
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 0
Huge 198





Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 18, 2011, 04:21:42 PM
Quote
Washington Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Christine Gregoire’s job performance?
Approve................. 38%
Disapprove............ 48%
Not sure ................ 14%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WA_0518424.pdf

She apparently isn't running for re-election; if she did she might put Washington at risk for the President.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         204
GOP advantage                                             160       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 100
Modest 21
Slight 41



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 0
Huge 198






Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 18, 2011, 10:20:12 PM
Chris Christie slips underwater:

Quote
NEW JERSEY DIVIDED ON GOVERNOR

Fewer than half aware of town hall meetings
New Jersey residents are divided on Governor Chris Christie’s job performance and his ratings
have dropped since the last Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll in February. He now stands at
47% approve to 49% disapprove among all state residents. Among registered voters, he has a 46%
positive to 49% negative job rating.
The change in Christie’s rating comes mainly from the number of people who shifted from
having no opinion of the governor a few months ago to holding a negative view today. In February, 47%
of residents held a positive opinion of Christie – identical to the result in the current poll. However, the
number who disapprove has increased by 9 points, while the number who have no opinion of their
governor’s job performance decreased by 7 points. Christie receives positive ratings from 75% of
Republicans, 53% of independents, and 22% of Democrats.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP39_1.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         218
GOP advantage                                             146       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate.

Republican advantage:

Huge 100
Modest 21
Slight 27



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 30
Modest 0
Huge 198


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 19, 2011, 01:33:46 PM
North Carolina (Civitas):

51% Approve
45% Disapprove

(Gov. Perdue)

46% Approve
41% Disapprove

This poll of 600 registered general election voters in North Carolina was conducted May 10-11, 2011 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008.

http://www.nccivitas.org/2011/civitas-poll-perdue-job-approval-remains-under-50-percent

Huge shift in two months. What did she do right?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_0519.pdf

But PPP has yet to show it, although she is catching up to all Republican opponents. The PPP poll ends later, so it is the one that I must use:

North Carolina Survey Results

Quote
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?

Approve................. 35%
Disapprove............ 49%
Not sure ................ 16%

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         189
GOP advantage                                             146       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 99
Modest 21
Slight 27



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 30
Modest 0
Huge 198



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 24, 2011, 01:48:53 PM
Poll from Texas -- Texas Tribune/University of Texas:


Quote
Q8. How would you rate the job Rick Perry has done as governor? Would you say that you…


1. Approve strongly 12%
2. Approve somewhat 29%
3. Neither approve nor disapprove 15%
4. Disapprove somewhat 14%
5. Disapprove strongly 28%
6. Don’t know 3%

http://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/uttt-201105-summary-day2.pdf

Are Texans beginning to tire of Dubya's successor? It has been ten long years. You can probably forget him as a VP candidate if he isn't "that strong" in a state that isn't going to vote for President Obama, who has an approval rating of 35% in Texas.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     7
Obama advantage                                         151
GOP advantage                                             109       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 61
Modest 21
Slight 27



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 68
Modest 0
Huge 198




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: The Professor on May 24, 2011, 01:59:04 PM
pbrower2a, making all these maps is no way to get girls


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Yelnoc on May 24, 2011, 02:39:13 PM
pbrower2a, making all these maps is no way to get girls
Vhat?  Chicks dig maps!


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 24, 2011, 03:04:54 PM
pbrower2a, making all these maps is no way to get girls


I didn't expect to color Texas pink today!


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Person Man on May 24, 2011, 04:50:02 PM
pbrower2a, making all these maps is no way to get girls


I didn't expect to color Texas pink today!

Well yeah, you watched Full Metal Jacket, right?

Anyways, I am guessing Texas is some kind of a Federal Government expirement to see how far right you could push a large political entity before people start to hate you.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 24, 2011, 07:42:30 PM
pbrower2a, making all these maps is no way to get girls


I didn't expect to color Texas pink today!

Well yeah, you watched Full Metal Jacket, right?

Anyways, I am guessing Texas is some kind of a Federal Government expirement to see how far right you could push a large political entity before people start to hate you.

I've never seen Full Metal Jacket, but that would seem the wrong flick for getting the girls.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 24, 2011, 08:13:08 PM
We finally see a tie, thanks to Fairleigh Dickinson College, New Jersey, and Chris Christie:

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2011/blue/

Quote
Consequently, the governor’s approval rate is also down: Voters split evenly with
44% approving and 44% disapproving, a significant decline from a robust 51%-
41% approval rating in April, and the worst the governor has measured in his
term.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     21
Obama advantage                                         137
GOP advantage                                             109       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 61
Modest 21
Slight 27



No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 44
Modest 0
Huge 198





Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 25, 2011, 03:03:23 PM
Ohio. The good news for the Governor is that he is more popular than ex-Cavalier LeBron James and Michigan Wolverines Football.

Quote
Ohio Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 33%
Disapprove...................................................... 56%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q2 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Ted
Strickland or Republican John Kasich?
Ted Strickland ....... 59%
John Kasich .......... 34%
Not sure ................ 7%

Q3 Ohio may have a referendum on repealing
Senate Bill 5, which was passed earlier this
year and limits collective bargaining rights for
public employees. Would you vote to repeal
Senate Bill 5, or would you vote to let the law
stand?

Would vote to
repeal SB5 ............ 55%
Would vote to let
the law stand......... 35%
Not sure ................ 10%

Q4 Would you support or oppose an amendment
to the state constitution guaranteeing the right
to collective bargaining?
Support ................. 45%
Oppose ................. 32%
Not sure ................ 23%

Hint: if you are a conservative politician, do not bait the police.

Mediocre popularity of the Speaker of the House in his own state:

Quote
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of the job House
Speaker John Boehner is doing?
Approve .......................................................... 37%
Disapprove...................................................... 37%
Not sure .......................................................... 26%

But a bad omen for the congressional Republicans, at least in Ohio:


Quote
Q7 If there was an election for Congress today do
you think you would vote for the Democratic or
Republican candidate from your district, or are
you not sure?

Democratic
candidate .............. 43%
Republican
candidate .............. 34%
Not sure ................ 22%

Governor Kasich would probably win against this guy, though, and maybe the Communist Party nominee for Governor:

Quote
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of LeBron James?
Favorable .............. 23%
Unfavorable........... 49%
Not sure ................ 27%
....

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_0525.pdf


Also in Big Ten country:

Quote

Wisconsin Survey Results


Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 43%
Disapprove...................................................... 54%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

Q4 Would you support or oppose recalling Scott
Walker from office before his term is up?
Support ................. 50%
Oppose ................. 47%
Not sure ................ 3%

Q5 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Russ
Feingold, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker ................................................... 42%
Russ Feingold................................................. 52%
Undecided....................................................... 6%

Q6 If there was a recall election between
Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Tom
Barrett, who would you vote for?
Scott Walker ................................................... 43%
Tom Barrett ..................................................... 50%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q7 Would you rather that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the State Senate?
Democrats ...................................................... 50%
Republicans .................................................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

It looks like an improvement, but that is from a Rasmussen poll.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_0525930.pdf

Politically, Florida seems more Midwestern than anything else:

Quote
Florida voters disapprove 57 - 29 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing, the worst score of any governor in the states surveyed by Quinnipiac University and down from a 48 - 35 percent disapproval in an April 6 survey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

The state's new budget is unfair to people like them, voters tell the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll 54 - 29 percent. Gov. Scott and the State Legislature are equally responsible for the budget, 68 percent of voters say. The legislature's job approval rating is nearly identical to that of the governor, as voters disapprove 56 - 27 percent, compared to 47 - 35 percent disapproval in April.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1604



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                     21
Obama advantage                                         137
GOP advantage                                             109       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 61
Modest 21
Slight 27



No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 44
Modest 0
Huge 198





Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Tender Branson on May 25, 2011, 03:14:48 PM
To complete your map:

Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) - 54% Approve, 20% Disapprove

http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/121836484.html

Massachusetts: Deval Patrick (D) - 48% Approve, 40% Disapprove

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.7NEWS.Suffolk.Marginals.April.5.2011.pdf

Maryland: Martin O’Malley (D) - 58% Approve, 30% Disapprove

http://www.gonzalesresearch.com/polls/Maryland%20Poll%20January%202011.pdf

South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) - 36% Approve, 24% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_0203.pdf

Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) - 31% Approve, 61% Disapprove

http://weaskamerica.com/2011/03/21/tenacious-gadfly/

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) - 43% Approve, 48% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=8ca630fe-ac5d-451c-b92d-72581e3b66a6


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on May 25, 2011, 04:02:12 PM
To complete your map:

Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) - 54% Approve, 20% Disapprove

http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/121836484.html

Massachusetts: Deval Patrick (D) - 48% Approve, 40% Disapprove

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.7NEWS.Suffolk.Marginals.April.5.2011.pdf

Maryland: Martin O’Malley (D) - 58% Approve, 30% Disapprove

http://www.gonzalesresearch.com/polls/Maryland%20Poll%20January%202011.pdf

South Carolina: Nikki Haley (R) - 36% Approve, 24% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_0203.pdf

Illinois: Pat Quinn (D) - 31% Approve, 61% Disapprove

http://weaskamerica.com/2011/03/21/tenacious-gadfly/

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) - 43% Approve, 48% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=8ca630fe-ac5d-451c-b92d-72581e3b66a6


Thanks for the data, most of it useful.

I must exclude the South Carolina poll because it is taken within a month of the inauguration of a new Governor. (Re-elected governors is a different matter, as already I show approvals for Georgia and Arizona and did for Texas before a later poll came in). I have lots of trouble with SurveyUSA polls. and I am chary of using them for anything. Kansas, maybe, but nobody else seems to ever poll Kansas.   O'Malley is not a new Governor, so he counts.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         273
GOP advantage                                             129       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 27



No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 44
Modest 11
Huge 218


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on June 01, 2011, 01:47:14 PM
Democratic pols are doing well in Minnesota. New PPP poll.

Quote
Minnesota Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mark Dayton’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 51%
Disapprove...................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

This poll does not include President, but it says some interesting things about some Republican pols in Minnesota:

Quote
Q7 Next year would you like Michele Bachmann to
run for President, the Senate, the House, or not
run for any office?
President......................................................... 14%
Senate ............................................................ 23%
House ............................................................. 10%
No office.......................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Q8 Next year would you like Tim Pawlenty to run
for President, the Senate, or not run for any
office?
President......................................................... 28%
Senate ............................................................ 17%
No office.......................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MN_06011118.pdf

Pawlenty isn't faring too badly in the one State that Walter Mondale carried -- until you recognize that Minnesotans know him very well. Michelle Bachmann is extremely unpopular, in view of the high percentage of people who don;t want her running for any political office. A lmost half od all polled Minnesotans don't want her running for a House seat, one of which she now holds.  

New York State, too. This poll is by Quinnipiac, and it changes nothing except as an update:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1606 





Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         273
GOP advantage                                             129       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 27



No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 44
Modest 11
Huge 218



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on June 07, 2011, 01:00:53 PM
Iowa update. The GOP Governor is slipping. The Republican Senator isn't doing too badly, but a pattern is beginning to shape up for Republican Governors in the northeastern quadrant of the US. Terry Branstad now looks like no asset for any Republican Presidential nominee in 2012.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/IowaApprovalNumbers.pdf

Quote
Iowa Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 39%
Disapprove...................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Charles Grassley’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 53%
Disapprove...................................................... 32%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Harkin’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 50%
Disapprove...................................................... 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Quote
Massachusetts Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Deval Patrick’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 54%
Disapprove...................................................... 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_0608.pdf





Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         273
GOP advantage                                             129       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 27



No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 38
Modest 6
Huge 229



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: King on June 07, 2011, 01:15:06 PM
Why is this in the 2012 Presidential board?


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on June 07, 2011, 02:53:39 PM
Why is this in the 2012 Presidential board?

The conjecture (mine) that state governors, as the highest-profile politicians in most states except for the President, can help or hurt a Presidential nominee in a marginal race. Such may be a foretaste of how a State eventually votes.

This may have more effect on Senate races... but who knows?

Can an unpopular governor hurt the Presidential campaign in his state? Sure -- if the Governor is so unpopular that no get-out-the-vote  (GOTV) program can work behalf of his Party. A wildly-unpopular Governor can have the opposite effect on behalf of the other Party.

OK -- I can easily see President Obama losing West Virginia (he is the wrong Democrat to win West Virginia) and winning Virginia (he is the first Democrat to be the right Democrat to win Virginia in a close election)... but I look at the unpopularity of new Republican Governors in Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida... and I can't see any one of the new Governors as an asset to any Republican. "I hate the Governor!" is a good motivator for a GOTV campaign for the other side.   Does anyone expect Wisconsin to be an easy flip in 2012 for the Republican nominee for President? In December 2011 people might have thought so -- but not now. 

Aside from measuring the popularity or unpopularity of a Governor as a partisan advantage, maybe this exercise is a surrogate for something else -- like the popularity of the Party.

Did you see the reports for Republican governors in Arizona, Georgia, and Texas? Georgia was close in 2008 for the Presidency. Arizona wasn't the blowout that it usually is for a nominee from the state. Georgia might not have a Senate seat up for grabs, but Arizona and Texas will have them in 2012. 


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Badger on June 08, 2011, 07:44:12 AM
With respect, Pbrower, your analysis as to how governors' popularity might possibly impact the presidential race doesn't justify keeping it here. It's just too weak a correlation.

Move this thread, please.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Tender Branson on June 10, 2011, 12:36:22 AM
KY (Braun Research):

Gov. Steve Beshear (D)

65% Approve
30% Disapprove

The cn|2 Poll was conducted June 6-8 by live interviewers from Braun Research, Inc. The 802 respondents contacted for the survey voted in the 2007 or 2010 elections or both with about 88% of those surveyed having voted in both.

The poll has a margin of error of 3. 5 points. You can view the methodology and the detailed results and crosstabs here:

http://mycn2.com/politics/beshear-leads-williams-by-21-points-after-ad-blitz-cn2-poll-shows


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on June 11, 2011, 02:21:51 AM
South Carolina, PPP. Finally, we get to know.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_06091023.pdf

Quote

South Carolina Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Nikki Haley’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 42%
Disapprove...................................................... 41%
Not sure .......................................................... 17%

Q3 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again would you vote for Republican Nikki
Haley or Democrat Vincent Sheheen?

Nikki Haley...................................................... 48%
Vincent Sheheen............................................. 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%



Nikki Haley  is in better shape than a bunch of other Republican Governors. I'm going to guess that she is more of a survivor than the others. She won't be a hindrance to Senator Lindsey Graham getting re-elected or to a  Republican nominee for President. But she's not going to be much of a help; she has yet to become a political powerhouse. She's just not in trouble from the start.

Interesting sidebar:

Quote
Q8 Are you glad that the North won the Civil War
or do you wish that the South had won?

Glad the North won......................................... 46%
Wish the South had ........................................ 24%
Not sure .......................................................... 29%

South Carolina is 'only' about 26% African-American, so any d@mnyankees who want to deride South Carolina as a haven for admirers of the Confederacy are... pardon the expression... "whistling "Dixie". South Carolina may have been the first state to secede from the Union... that is past. Way past.

Oregon. The Democratic governor is doing fine, 45-34:


http://news.opb.org/media/uploads/pdf/2011/oregon_media_partners--annot--june.pdf

KY (Braun Research):

Gov. Steve Beshear (D)

65% Approve
30% Disapprove

The cn|2 Poll was conducted June 6-8 by live interviewers from Braun Research, Inc. The 802 respondents contacted for the survey voted in the 2007 or 2010 elections or both with about 88% of those surveyed having voted in both.

The poll has a margin of error of 3. 5 points. You can view the methodology and the detailed results and crosstabs here:

http://mycn2.com/politics/beshear-leads-williams-by-21-points-after-ad-blitz-cn2-poll-shows

Remember -- I am using gaps and not raw approval.

A caveat: I remain convinced that President Obama is the wrong Democratic nominee for President for Kentucky until I see otherwise. He won't win Kentucky except in a landslide, which implies that he will have picked up the votes that Bill Clinton got that neither Gore, Kerry, nor Obama could win.




Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         287
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 36



No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 38
Modest 6
Huge 243



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on June 15, 2011, 10:47:27 AM
It looks as if Pennsylvanians are getting accustomed to Governor Corbett (R, PA). They approve of him as Governor (barely), but dislike his policies (barely). Rules require that I go with the total package that approval of the politician in general shows and ignore what is thought of policies.

Oddly President Obama made a gain in approval as did Governor Corbett. But that can happen with an improving atmosphere for politicians of all kinds. This is a big gain in approval for a Republican governor.

Quote
A big gender gap leaves Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett stuck with a split 39 - 38 percent job approval rating, with 23 percent of voters still undecided as the new governor approaches the six- month mark, according to a Quinnipiac University poll release today.

Men approve of Gov. Corbett 48 - 34 percent, but women disapprove 43 - 30 percent, an 18-point gender gap, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

This compares to Corbett's split 39 - 37 percent approval rating April 27, when there was a 7-point gender gap.

In today's survey, Pennsylvania voters say 51 - 14 percent, including 45 - 16 percent among women, that they like Corbett as a person. But they don't like his policies 43 - 38 percent, including 49 - 31 percent among women.

Connecticut, also Quinnipiac

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1612

Quote
Connecticut voters give Gov. Dannel Malloy a negative 38 - 44 percent approval rating, apparently driven by 43 percent who are "dissatisfied" with the new state budget and another 16 percent who are "angry" with the budget, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Only 36 percent described themselves as "enthusiastic" or "satisfied" with the budget.




Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         267
GOP advantage                                             158       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 56



No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 38
Modest 6
Huge 223




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on June 16, 2011, 04:50:02 AM
Budgeting is a nasty business in hard times with political polarization.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_0615925.pdf

Quote
North Carolina Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?

Approve................. 36%
Disapprove............ 47%
Not sure ................ 17%




Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         267
GOP advantage                                             158       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 56



No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 38
Modest 6
Huge 223




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Tender Branson on June 21, 2011, 01:57:17 PM
Dayton now negative (probably because of vetoing the popular voter-ID bill):

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark Dayton is doing as Governor? 

42% Approve
43% Disapprove

http://kstp.com/news/stories/s2165061.shtml?cat=89

Christie is also negative:

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Christie is handling his job as Governor?

44% Approve
47% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1615


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on June 21, 2011, 04:24:03 PM
Dayton now negative (probably because of vetoing the popular voter-ID bill):

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark Dayton is doing as Governor? 

42% Approve
43% Disapprove

http://kstp.com/news/stories/s2165061.shtml?cat=89

Christie is also negative:

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Christie is handling his job as Governor?

44% Approve
47% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1615



Budgeting is a nasty business in hard times with political polarization.


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         267
GOP advantage                                             158       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 66



No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 38
Modest 6
Huge 213





Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Badger on June 22, 2011, 08:26:16 AM
Please. Move. Thread. >:(


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on June 23, 2011, 08:42:43 PM

Dayton now negative (probably because of vetoing the popular voter-ID bill):

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark Dayton is doing as Governor? 

42% Approve
43% Disapprove

http://kstp.com/news/stories/s2165061.shtml?cat=89

Christie is also negative:

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Christie is handling his job as Governor?

44% Approve
47% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1615



Budgeting is a nasty business in hard times with political polarization.

I'm going to rescind the Minnesota poll because it comes from the unreliable Survey2000.   


Quote
Montana Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Schweitzer’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 52%
Disapprove...................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_623.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         280
GOP advantage                                             158       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 56



No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 38
Modest 6
Huge 226






Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on June 24, 2011, 05:05:06 PM
Quote
Oregon Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kitzhaber’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 35%
Not sure .......................................................... 17%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OR_624.pdf

Same, roughly, as an earlier poll result this month, so no new map appears.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on June 29, 2011, 04:51:52 AM
If Florida were an independent country, then Rick Scott would have cause to fear his generals and admirals. 

Quote
Florida Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 33%
Disapprove...................................................... 59%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q2 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Republican Rick
Scott or Democrat Alex Sink?
Rick Scott........................................................ 35%
Alex Sink......................................................... 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q3 Have Rick Scott’s actions as Governor made it
more or less likely that you’ll vote for a
Republican for President next year, or has it
not made a difference?

More likely....................................................... 26%
Less likely ....................................................... 40%
Hasn't made a difference ................................ 34%

Q4 Do you think Charlie Crist should become a
Democrat or not?

He should........................................................ 43%
He should not.................................................. 26%
Not sure .......................................................... 31%

Q5 If the candidates for Governor next time were
Republican Rick Scott and Charlie Crist,
running as a Democrat, who would you vote
for?

Rick Scott........................................................ 34%
Charlie Crist .................................................... 56%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

The sample essentially voted as it did in 2008:

Quote
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 45%
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7%

The F on the shape of Florida stands for the sixth month of the year, and only coincidentally
for "failure" or an indelicate combination of words.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    21
Obama advantage                                         280
GOP advantage                                             158       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 56



No advantage or indeterminate 21

Democratic advantage:

Slight 38
Modest 6
Huge 226






Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on June 29, 2011, 10:39:41 AM
Quote
Gov. Cuomo's approval rating matches his 64 - 16 percent score April 13, the highest New York scores since Gov. George Pataki's 66 - 18 percent July 2, 2002. Scores for other governors surveyed by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University are:

    Virginia's Bob McDonnell, 55 - 26 percent June 29;
    New Jersey's Christopher Christie, 44 - 47 percent June 21;
    Connecticut's Dannel Malloy, 38 - 44 percent June 15;
    Pennsylvania's Tom Corbett, 39 - 38 percent June 14;
    Florida's Rick Scott, 29 - 57 percent May 25;
    Ohio's John Kasich, 38 - 49 percent May 18.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1619&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

PPP, Rick Perry, R-TX. It ain't pretty.

Quote
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 43%
Disapprove...................................................... 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TX_629513.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         294
GOP advantage                                             158       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 70



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 14
Modest 44
Huge 226







Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Tender Branson on July 09, 2011, 01:09:11 AM
Gov. Lynch (NH):

65% Approve
23% Disapprove

http://www.wmur.com/r/28490625/detail.html


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on July 09, 2011, 10:57:03 AM
For a Republican Governor of a very Democratic state, Susana Martinez is doing very well.

Quote
New Mexico Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Susana Martinez’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 52%
Disapprove...................................................... 37%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_705.pdf

For a Democratic Governor of a marginally-D state (or really in any state), Governor Lynch is doing very well

Gov. Lynch (NH):

65% Approve
23% Disapprove

http://www.wmur.com/r/28490625/detail.html

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  14%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         294
GOP advantage                                             158       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 70



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 14
Modest 44
Huge 226



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on July 13, 2011, 09:56:19 AM
There was a joke poll on the President in Florida... and this pollster has an unusually sunny view of Governor Rick Scott, at least if one looks at the prose in the analysis. But I can't see how even Doctor Pangloss (Candide by Voltaire is essential reading if you don't get the reference) could see any sunny side of this poll:

Quote

For Rick Scott, a Tough Road to Reform

Florida Gov. Rick Scott's 58 percent disapproval rating may be scary to Republicans, but it's neither surprising nor necessarily lethal, a new Sunshine State News Poll finds.

(Snide comment: an alligator bite isn't always lethal, but it often has bad effects. Amputation of a bitten arm or leg is a common treatment of an alligator bite)  

Quote
"It's obviously horrible, and it makes perfect sense," says Jim Lee, president of Voter Survey Service, which conducted the July 5-7 statewide poll.

"Other [polling] firms have said he has the 'lowest' approval rating of any governor in the nation. While it may be true, it’s not hard to understand when you consider that Scott only won with 49 percent of the vote last year," Lee said.

Yeah, sure... win a bare plurality and then pull a bait-and-switch on the electorate. After you get the Zonk on Let's Make a Deal, you usually get to move on. But such is not so with a Governor, a four-year mistake. Florida voters got the Zonk, and instead of a barnyard animal that one can still return for a little bit of cash one gets a firm supporter of crony capitalism that degrades the state.

Quote
Mired with an overall approval score of just 27 percent in the survey of 1,000 registered likely voters, Scott has been pilloried by the left and the right.  

If you want to see more of this incredible writing, then look here:

http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/gov-rick-scott-tough-road-reform

Reform? Florida will be interested in some big reform in 2014 unless it has a recall mechanism like that in California that unseated Gray Davis and might depose Scott Walker in Wisconsin. Florida voters would probably amputate this Governor out of politics if they got the chance.

The gap is so large that nobody can spin it.

Another "Zonk", this one you-know-who in Wisconsin:

Quote
Job approval for Governor Scott Walker

A majority of Wisconsin residents (59%) disapprove of the way that Scott Walker is handling his job as Governor. In fact, a majority (53%) said they either very much or extremely disapprove of the way Walker is handling the job of being Governor of Wisconsin. This compares to the 28% of residents who said they very much or extremely approve of the way Walker is handling the job as Governor.

Job Approval Rating for Governor Scott Walker
Approve
Neither (vol.)
Disapprove
Don't Know
Refused
(N)
June '11
37%
3%
59%
1%
<1%
(556)

Bad formatting... but 37% approve, 59% disapprove.

http://www.uwsc.wisc.edu/BP32PressRelease1_WIpols_FINAL.pdf

Badger Poll, from the University of Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania again, PPP, and back underwater:

Quote
Pennsylvania Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Tom Corbett’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 35%
Disapprove...................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 20%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_714.pdf



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 14
Modest 44
Huge 246








Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on July 14, 2011, 07:34:06 PM
Fixed.

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 14
Modest 44
Huge 246









Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on July 15, 2011, 12:33:59 PM
Quote
North Carolina Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?
Approve................. 34%
Disapprove............ 49%
Not sure ................ 16%



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 14
Modest 44
Huge 246









Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on July 15, 2011, 01:41:29 PM
You're still flipping blue and red.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on July 20, 2011, 08:56:57 AM
Quote
New Jersey Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Chris Christie’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 43%
Disapprove...................................................... 53%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Corzine?
Favorable........................................................ 39%
Unfavorable .................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q3 If you could do the 2009 election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Republican
Chris Christie or Democrat Jon Corzine?
Chris Christie .................................................. 48%
Jon Corzine..................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Abrasive personalities disappoint the electorate when things go badly.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 44
Huge 260


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on July 20, 2011, 08:59:28 AM
You're still flipping blue and red.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Yelnoc on July 20, 2011, 09:03:54 AM
No he's not, that's just this website's color scheme.  Click on the "Election Results" tab at the very top menubar.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on July 20, 2011, 09:25:42 AM
No, I meant (like I said before) that he flipped blue and red here:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on July 20, 2011, 08:12:04 PM
No, I meant (like I said before) that he flipped blue and red here:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state blue. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state red. A tie for either -- it's yellow. 



Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Chris Christie’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 43%
Disapprove...................................................... 53%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Corzine?
Favorable........................................................ 39%
Unfavorable .................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q3 If you could do the 2009 election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Republican
Chris Christie or Democrat Jon Corzine?
Chris Christie .................................................. 48%
Jon Corzine..................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Abrasive personalities disappoint the electorate when things go badly.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 44
Huge 260



Fixed! Thank you.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 21, 2011, 11:59:16 AM
Can't find the exact poll location, but here's a poll on Governor Sandoval's job approval from the Tarrence Group:

Quote
A survey of voters, conducted by the Tarrance Group, this month, shows that 53% of Nevada voters approve of the job Sandoval is doing.

That's compared with only 29% that disapprove of his performance.

...

The Tarrance Group interviewed 501 people - 43% being Democrat, 36% Republican, and the rest Independent.


http://www.ktvn.com/story/15115828/poll-governor-sandovals-approval-rating-soars


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on July 22, 2011, 12:45:36 AM
Quote
July 20, 2011 - Ohio Gov's Low Approval Slips Further, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Support For Photo Id To Vote Almost 4-1

Ohio Gov. John Kasich is sinking slowly into the quicksand of voter disapproval, with a 50 - 35 percent thumbs down on job approval, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is down from a 49 - 38 percent job disapproval May 18.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1625

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 81
Modest 21
Slight 50



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 44
Huge 260



Fixed! Thank you.

[/quote]


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on July 22, 2011, 04:20:16 PM

Utah, PPP, Governor. The great mystery of the ages is resolved!

Quote
Utah Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Gary Herbert’s job performance?

Approve................. 51%
Disapprove............ 32%
Not sure ................ 17%


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_UT_0722.pdf

Uh, no.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                    7
Obama advantage                                         314
GOP advantage                                             144       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 21
Slight 50



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 44
Huge 260






Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Tender Branson on July 29, 2011, 09:35:30 AM
MN: Mark Dayton (D)

Gov. Mark Dayton has come out of the state government shutdown with Minnesotans evenly split on his job performance.

40 percent approve of his work, 40 percent disapprove and 20 percent have no opinion, according to a poll done for MinnPost.com by Daves & Associates Research.

http://www.minnpost.com/stories/2011/07/29/30417/minnpost_poll_minnesotans_evenly_split_on_daytons_job_performance


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on July 29, 2011, 11:38:53 AM
Quote
Virginia Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bob
McDonnell’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 50%
Disapprove...................................................... 31%
Not sure .......................................................... 19%

Governor McDonnell is either acting as a moderate or leaving the dirty work to others. Nothing has changed. Virginia is NOT a right-wing state anymore:

Quote
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eric Cantor?

Favorable........................................................ 29%
Unfavorable .................................................... 31%
Not sure .......................................................... 39%

This is very poor for someone who wields much power in Congress John Boehner has much the same problem in Ohio.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_7291118.pdf


MN: Mark Dayton (D)

Gov. Mark Dayton has come out of the state government shutdown with Minnesotans evenly split on his job performance.

40 percent approve of his work, 40 percent disapprove and 20 percent have no opinion, according to a poll done for MinnPost.com by Daves & Associates Research.

http://www.minnpost.com/stories/2011/07/29/30417/minnpost_poll_minnesotans_evenly_split_on_daytons_job_performance

Budgetary squabbles in rough times are not good for gubernatorial popularity.
Quote
Michigan Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Snyder’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 38%
Disapprove...................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MI_728.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         304
GOP advantage                                             144       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 21
Slight 50



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 44
Huge 250







Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on July 29, 2011, 11:47:31 AM
Governor McDonnell is either acting as a moderate or leaving the dirty work to others. Nothing has changed. Virginia is NOT a right-wing state anymore:

Sure it is.  Just because it's not as Republican as it used to be does not mean it isn't a conservative state. The only Democrats who have had any success there have had to be -- or at least pose as -- moderates.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Penelope on July 29, 2011, 11:56:29 AM
McDonnell is not doing anything or giving anything for people to disapprove of - hell, I support the man right now.

Also, VA is a GOP state by sq. mile, but a leaning Dem state by population.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on August 03, 2011, 10:29:20 AM
We now have a picture of gubernatorial approval of all partisan Governors  east of the Mississippi but two, one of those states now being polled:


Quote
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Peter Shumlin’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 19%

(Anticlimactic drum-roll!)

It's Vermont. Were you expecting Indiana, which might really be interesting? Or even Alabama?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VT_0803513.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         307
GOP advantage                                             144       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 21
Slight 50



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 47
Huge 250








Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Tender Branson on August 03, 2011, 10:45:16 AM
Pennsylvania

A shift by women voters helps give Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett a 44 - 36 percent job approval, his first noticeable boost in job approval since he took office in January, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Pennsylvania voters like their governor as a person 48 - 15 percent, with 37 percent still undecided. But voters say 43 - 40 percent that they don't like Corbett's policies.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1631


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: HST1948 on August 10, 2011, 10:45:53 AM
New York- Quinnipiac

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as Governor?
   
Approve              62 %   
Disapprove          22 %   
DK/NA                16  %   


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2011, 09:53:03 AM
Christie back to blue:

Adults: 48-42
RV: 50-41

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP40_2.pdf


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on August 12, 2011, 10:11:35 AM
Quote
A shift by women voters helps give Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett a 44 - 36 percent job approval, his first noticeable boost in job approval since he took office in January, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1631

Seems unlikely -- but the end of the budgetary process may have led to less polarizing results than poison state politics in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, or Wisconsin. Governors gain politically by acting like adults.


pdmurray@monmouth.edu

Quote
Friday, August 12, 2011

GOV. CHRISTIE JOB RATING UP

But property tax concerns still simmering
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s job rating has improved since the state budget was signed, sealed, and line-item vetoed. The latest Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll found most state residents are okay with the governor’s controversial cuts. However, there has been a decline in the grades he gets for controlling costs and property tax relief.

Governor Christie currently earns a 48% approve to 42% disapprove job rating among all Garden State residents. Among registered voters, his rating stands at 50% approve to 41% disapprove. This is the first time he has hit the 50% mark in the Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll since taking office. It is also the first time since early April that he broke 50% approval in any non-partisan New Jersey poll.

Is there any question that the budgeting process creates trouble for a Governor in a state politically polarized or a Governor facing a hostile state legislature, and that if the budgetary process turns out well the Governor is in good shape?

Quote
August 10, 2011 - Cuomo Is 'good,' 'competent,' 'trying,' New York State Voters Tell Quinnipiac University Poll; Gov Is Better Leader Than Obama, Bloomberg

"Good," "competent," "trying," "honest" and "OK" top the list when 1,640 New York State voters use one word to describe Gov. Andrew Cuomo, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. For example 76 voters say "good," followed by 51 who say "competent" and another 51 who say "trying" as in attempting. These are actual voter counts, not percentages.

Except for "arrogant" at number nine on the list, "liberal," a word that goes either way, at 13 and "disappointed" at 22, the 30 top words are positive. Way down the list, 6 people say "bully" and 5 people say "sleazy," but the words are overwhelmingly positive throughout.

In fact, only one person offered a profanity.

New York State voters approve 62 - 22 percent of the job Gov. Cuomo is doing, compared to 64 - 19 percent in a June 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University. Voters say 64 - 12 percent that they like Cuomo as a person and 61 - 26 percent that they like most of his policies.  

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1634

Comment: Andrew Cuomo seems like Presidential material already.

Now for a real turkey, and I doubt that anyone can see him as Presidential material --

August 5, 2011 - Florida Gov's Approval Goes From Terrible To Bad, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Caylee's Law 6-1

Quote
Although Gov. Rick Scott's job approval among Florida voters remains seriously below water, his negative 35 - 52 percent score is an improvement from a negative 29 - 57 percent in May, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Florida voters continue to give Gov. Scott negative ratings on his handling of the state budget, its fairness to average voters and about him personally, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1633


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)


Seems unlikely -- but the end of the budgetary process may have led to less polarizing results than poison state politics in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, or Wisconsin.

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         273
GOP advantage                                             137       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 55
Slight 50



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 47
Huge 216


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on August 12, 2011, 10:26:10 AM
Quote
Colorado Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Hickenlooper’s job performance?
Approve................. 54%
Disapprove............ 24%
Not sure ................ 22%

Funny name, good results.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_0811925.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)


Seems unlikely -- but the end of the budgetary process may have led to less polarizing results than poison state politics in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, or Wisconsin.

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         273
GOP advantage                                             137       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 55
Slight 50



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 47
Huge 216

[/quote]


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on August 17, 2011, 09:51:25 PM
Quote
Wisconsin Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?

Approve................. 45%
Disapprove............ 53%
Not sure ................ 2%

Gigantic improvement in his position after the recall vote.  Winning -- sort of -- helps.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WI_0816925.pdf

Quote
North Carolina Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?

Approve................. 37%
Disapprove............ 48%
Not sure ................ 15%

Q4 Do you have more faith in Governor Perdue or
Legislative Republicans to lead the state?

Governor Perdue ............................................ 44%
Legislative Republicans .................................. 41%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Very poor, but unambiguous improvement for an embattled Governor.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_0812.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)


Seems unlikely -- but the end of the budgetary process may have led to less polarizing results than poison state politics in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, or Wisconsin.

  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         273
GOP advantage                                             137       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 55
Slight 50



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 57
Huge 206



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on August 30, 2011, 02:46:04 PM
Quote
Ohio Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich’s job performance?

Approve................. 36%
Disapprove............ 53%
Not sure ................ 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_0818.pdf

Still horrid.

Quote
Iowa Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 41%
Disapprove...................................................... 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

On the margin, but Branstad would now win again:

Quote
Q2 If you could redo last fall’s election for
Governor, would you vote for Republican Terry
Branstad or Democrat Chet Culver?
Terry Branstad ................................................ 48%
Chet Culver..................................................... 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_0826.pdf

The Republican Governor of Iowa has gained some credibility.


Quote

Kentucky Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Beshear’s job performance?

Approve................. 57%
Disapprove............ 30%
Not sure ................ 13%

The right Democrat can win Kentucky's eight electoral votes, as shown by the popularity of the Democratic Governor. I doubt that it is President Obama, though.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         267
GOP advantage                                             143       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 55
Slight 56



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 0
Modest 51
Huge 206


A prediction: we will soon see how some of the governors from North Carolina northward fare in the aftermath of Hurricane Irene.  All of the states that got more than a glancing blow from Hurricane Irene (that excludes Florida and South Carolina) voted for President Obama in 2008. Including DC (which isn't going to vote for any Republican in 2012), the thirteen states and DC comprise 140 electoral votes.     




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on September 02, 2011, 04:35:03 PM
Quote
South Carolina Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Nikki Haley’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 41%
Disapprove...................................................... 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Not too bad. No change, really. At least she is not this:

Quote
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Sanford?
Favorable........................................................ 28%
Unfavorable .................................................... 58%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Happy "trails" to you... and don't meet us again!

Don't cry for me, Argentina! the truth is, I never left you!

The "right" Democrat could win in South Carolina:

Quote
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Fritz Hollings?
Favorable........................................................ 33%
Unfavorable .................................................... 31%
Not sure .......................................................... 36%


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_0902925.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             152       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 55
Slight 47



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 9
Modest 51
Huge 206


A prediction: we will soon see how some of the governors from North Carolina northward fare in the aftermath of Hurricane Irene.  All of the states that got more than a glancing blow from Hurricane Irene (that excludes Florida and South Carolina) voted for President Obama in 2008. Including DC (which isn't going to vote for any Republican in 2012), the thirteen states and DC comprise 140 electoral votes.    


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on September 07, 2011, 09:57:47 AM
PPP, WV

The "right" Democrat could win in West Virginia:

Quote
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Earl
Ray Tomblin’s job performance?
Approve................. 50%
Disapprove............ 25%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WV_0907925.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 55
Slight 47



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 9
Modest 51
Huge 206




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on September 08, 2011, 10:35:16 AM
MAJOR improvement for Governor Bev Perdue in North Carolina (PPP)


Quote
North Carolina Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?
Approve................. 40%
Disapprove............ 44%
Not sure ................ 16%

Why?

Quote
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of how
Governor Perdue handled Hurricane Irene?
Approve................. 64%
Disapprove............ 20%
Not sure ................ 16%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_0908424.pdf

Such is the acid test of a Governor as an administrator. I would expect the same all the way up the East Coast irrespective of partisan affiliation.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 40
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 9
Modest 51
Huge 206





Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2011, 05:11:53 AM
VA Gov. Bob McDonnell remains highly popular, just like Sen. Mark Warner and Sen. Jim Webb:

"Gov. Bob McDonnell, who backed the legislation, remains highly popular with a 61 - 21 percent job approval rating, matching New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's 62 - 22 percent job approval as the best in states surveyed by the independent Quinnipiac University.

Not surprisingly, Republicans approve of the governor 79 - 7 percent and independent voters approve 67 - 17 percent, while Democrats are divided 39 - 40 percent. Even black voters, historically a Democratic group, approve 46 - 32 percent, "a highly unusual finding for a Republican office-holder," said Brown. White voters approve of the governor's performance 67 - 18 percent.

Virginians say 56 - 14 percent they like McDonnell personally and by 52 - 26 percent say they like most of his policies. By 53 - 29 percent they approve of his handling of the state budget, and say 55 - 31 percent that the budget is fair to people like them.

...

Virginia voters are generally happy with their political leaders. Giving all their statewide elected political figures positive job approval ratings:

* U.S. Sen. Mark Warner is at 64 - 22 percent, the highest approval of any statewide official;
* U.S. Sen. Jim Webb gets 51 - 30 percent;
* Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling has a 39 - 15 percent approval;
* Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli scores 47 - 29 percent.

From September 6 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,368 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x5822.xml?ReleaseID=1643


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Guderian on September 14, 2011, 07:08:35 AM
McDonnell will be a serious presidential candidate in 2016 if Obama is reelected.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: greenforest32 on September 16, 2011, 04:02:01 PM
New poll for Oregon Governor.

http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2011/09/in_surveys_oregon_government_d.html

Quote
The survey conducted for Oregon Public Broadcasting and Fox 12 television found that 51 percent of Oregonians give Gov. John Kitzhaber positive marks compared to 31 percent who have a negative view.

Direct link to poll: http://news.opb.org/media/uploads/pdf/2011/091211_mediapartners_annot.pdf


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on September 19, 2011, 05:16:26 PM

Quote
Gov. Bob McDonnell, who backed the legislation, remains highly popular with a 61 - 21 percent job approval rating, matching New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's 62 - 22 percent job approval as the best in states surveyed by the independent Quinnipiac University.

I see no indication that Governor McDonnell handled the hurricane threat and damage any less well than Governor Bev Perdue in neighboring North Carolina. He might rescue the GOP in 2016 should 2012 prove a debacle for the Republican nominee for President.  So far he is a good administrator who doesn't shoot his mouth off.

Democratic Senators are doing fine there, and Quinnipiac releases a poll on approval for the President on September 15 at 6:30 EST. 

Now for Missouri, usually a good indicator of America as a whole:

Missouri Survey Results


Quote
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jay
Nixon’s job performance?
Approve................. 51%
Disapprove............ 30%
Not sure ................ 19%


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_0914513.pdf

Nothing really changes for either state.

New poll for Oregon Governor.

http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2011/09/in_surveys_oregon_government_d.html

Quote
The survey conducted for Oregon Public Broadcasting and Fox 12 television found that 51 percent of Oregonians give Gov. John Kitzhaber positive marks compared to 31 percent who have a negative view.

Direct link to poll: http://news.opb.org/media/uploads/pdf/2011/091211_mediapartners_annot.pdf

Very good!
 

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 40
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 9
Modest 51
Huge 206



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on September 20, 2011, 12:18:57 PM
Assuming that President Obama has two full terms as President, this fellow could be next:


Quote
September 20, 2011 - Storm Surge Takes Cuomo Approval To All-Time High, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Want Gov To Speak Up On Redistricting

An 86 - 7 percent approval rating for his handling of Tropical Storms Irene and Lee pushes New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo to a 66 - 17 percent overall approval rating, the highest score for any governor in states surveyed by Quinnipiac University and among the highest for any New York governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Approval ratings for Gov. Cuomo are 72 - 14 percent among Democrats, 61 - 20 percent among Republicans and 61 - 21 percent among independent voters. He gets a 62 - 21 percent thumbs up from New York City voters, 74 - 7 percent from suburban voters and 64 - 19 percent from upstate voters. Men approve 65 - 17 percent while women approve 66 - 17 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1647

This may be more relevant to 2016 than to 2012 (New York is a slam dunk for President Obama or else he is through). Now for someone running against President Obama in 2012:

Quote
Texas Survey Results

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%
--------------------------


Quinnipiac, Florida: Rick Scott remains in "execrable" territory:
Quote
Florida voters, especially women, like Gov. Rick Scott more as a person, but all voters still disapprove 50 - 37 percent of the job he's doing, in a Quinnipiac University poll released today, compared to a 52 - 35 percent disapproval August 5 and a 57 - 29 percent disapproval May 25.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1649

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 87
Modest 40
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 206


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on September 30, 2011, 09:53:48 AM
Quote
Connecticut Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Daniel Malloy’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 36%
Disapprove...................................................... 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Awful! That's almost the realm of Rick Scott, Scott Walker, and John Kasich. Don't expect him to be a featured speaker at the Democratic National Convention next year or to appear on the same stage as President Obama.  

Quote
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Malloy’s handling of Hurricane Irene?
Approve .......................................................... 68%
Disapprove...................................................... 19%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Fading in significance.  

Quote
Q3 If you could do last year’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat
Daniel Malloy or Republican Tom Foley?
Daniel Malloy .................................................. 41%
Tom Foley ....................................................... 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CT_0929424.pdf


(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 94
Modest 33
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 206



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Simfan34 on September 30, 2011, 10:02:37 AM
I'm new to this, so why isn't RI white?


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on September 30, 2011, 11:13:44 AM
RI is white.

Anyways, Iowa is inconsistent. On the first map it is 20 or 30% green, so on the second map it should be 20 or 30% red, not blue.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on September 30, 2011, 11:32:02 AM

The governor Lincoln Chaffee is an independent, so he cannot offer partisan advantage for any nominee. DC has no Governor, so it is also in white.

white -- no governor,  Independent governor, or an exact  tie.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on September 30, 2011, 11:35:47 AM
RI is white.

Anyways, Iowa is inconsistent. On the first map it is 20 or 30% green, so on the second map it should be 20 or 30% red, not blue.

Corrected in the latest map. Thank you.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on October 01, 2011, 02:40:21 AM

The governor Lincoln Chaffee is an independent, so he cannot offer partisan advantage for any nominee. DC has no Governor, so it is also in white.

white -- no governor,  Independent governor, or an exact  tie.
No, that's yellow.
Quote from: pbrower2a
Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow. 
Like Minnesota, for example.
:)


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on October 01, 2011, 09:35:35 AM
Quote
Florida Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 36%
Disapprove...................................................... 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

From the atrocious to the execrable. Wow!

Quote
Q2 If you could do last year’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Republican Rick
Scott or Democrat Alex Sink?
Rick Scott........................................................ 41%
Alex Sink......................................................... 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Crist?
Favorable........................................................ 51%
Unfavorable .................................................... 34%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

It's possible to warm up a bit to a lemon as you try to pretend that what you thought was an astute purchase wasn't so bad after all. But not much. Oh, the car was flooded and the dealer didn't tell you about that? It still has nice leg room and a good trunk.  


Quote
Q4 Do you think Charlie Crist should become a
Democrat or not?
He should........................................................ 45%
He should not.................................................. 25%
Not sure .......................................................... 30%

Maybe he can do much good as the titular head of "Republicans for Obama". Think of Jeane Kirkpatrick or  Zell Miller at a Republican National Convention in recent years, and you get the general idea.

Quote
Q5 If the candidates for Governor next time were
Republican Rick Scott and Charlie Crist,
running as a Democrat, who would you vote
for?
Rick Scott........................................................ 38%
Charlie Crist .................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Nostalgia for moderation and integrity. What a concept!

Quote
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 45%
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7%

Not far off from 2008 results. 2010 was very different.  

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 94
Modest 33
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 206

[/quote]


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on October 04, 2011, 11:24:22 PM
West Virginia

Quote
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Bill Maloney and Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Bill Maloney........... 46%
Earl Ray Tomblin... 47%
Undecided............. 7%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Maloney?
Favorable........................................................ 44%
Unfavorable .................................................... 33%
Not sure .......................................................... 23%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Earl
Ray Tomblin’s job performance?
Approve................. 44%
Disapprove............ 32%
Not sure ................ 23%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 28%
Disapprove...................................................... 63%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/west-virginia-race-looking-too-close-to-call.html

Not "too close to call" anymore! Governor Tomblin won.

http://wvgazette.com/News/201110042458

Because the re-election of a Governor suggests that people already know him there is no need to restart the  map for a state. Note that I accepted the continuation of the approval ratings of re-elected Governors earlier and still do.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         276
GOP advantage                                             134       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 94
Modest 33
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 206



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on October 05, 2011, 03:06:54 PM


Not "too close to call" anymore! Governor Tomblin won.

http://wvgazette.com/News/201110042458

Because the re-election of a Governor suggests that people already know him there is no need to restart the  map for a state. Note that I accepted the continuation of the approval ratings of re-elected Governors earlier and still do.

This one is straightforward (Maryland):

Quote
Statewide, 52% of Maryland voters approve of the job O’Malley is doing as governor, while 40% disapprove, with 8% offering no opinion
.

http://www.gonzalesresearch.com/polls/Maryland%20Poll%20October%202011.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         286
GOP advantage                                             134       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 94
Modest 33
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 216



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on October 12, 2011, 12:56:47 PM
New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie would have won, Garden State voters say, but they back his decision not to run for president 8-1. They seem glad to be stuck with him and give him a 58 - 38 percent job approval rating, his best score ever, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. A big swing from women lifts him from a 47 - 46 percent score August 17.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1660

Currently, Governor Christie earns a 54% approve to 38% disapprove job rating among all
Garden State residents. Among registered voters, his rating stands at 55% approve to 37% disapprove.
This is the highest rating he has ever received in the Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll, topping
the 50% he received among registered voters in early August.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP41_1.pdf

All above 15%, so it is all a matter of taste -- and the applicable rule would give the same result on the map.


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         286
GOP advantage                                             134       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 94
Modest 33
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 216


[/quote]


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on October 14, 2011, 11:41:21 AM
WWL-TV (CBS 4, New Orleans)/Clarus.

Quote
Bob Jindal is doing OK and will be re-elected easily.

“Gov. Jindal is in very good shape politically right now. He's poised to win re-election in landslide victory,” said Dr. Ron Faucheux, who conducted the poll for WWL-TV.

The landline and cell phone poll of 602 likely voters statewide shows Jindal is strongest among Republicans (87 percent). He wins 50 percent of the independent vote and scores 29 percent of the vote among the Democrats surveyed.

The other candidates in the race scored in the single digits: David Blanchard, 2 percent; Cary Deaton, 2 percent; Scott Lewis, 2 percent; Trey Roberts, 2 percent; Bob Lang, 1 percent; Niki Bird Papazoglakis, 1 percent. Lenny Bollingham and Ron Ceasar did not score any points in the survey.

Seventy-three percent of white voters approve of the job he is doing, compared to 35 percent of blacks. But Jindal’s overall approval rating is the highest of anyone tested in the state at 63 percent. His disapproval rating is 32 percent.

http://www.wwltv.com/news/politics/Gov-Jindal-well-ahead-in-WWLTV-poll-131632313.html

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         286
GOP advantage                                             134       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 102
Modest 25
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 216




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on October 19, 2011, 03:00:06 PM
Whoever the Republican nominee is, he (or she) will need Ohio. Governor Kasich will be of no help, as if anything really changes in the Buckeye State :

Quote
Ohio Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor John
Kasich’s job performance?
Approve.................. 37%
Disapprove............. 54%
Not sure ................. 10%

Q2 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Ted
Strickland or Republican John Kasich?
Ted Strickland ................................................... 54%
John Kasich ...................................................... 40%
Not sure ............................................................ 6%

Q3 This fall, Ohio will have a referendum on
whether to approve or reject Senate Bill 5, which
was passed earlier this year and limits collective
bargaining rights for public employees. If the
election was today, would you vote to approve
or reject Senate Bill 5?
Approve SB5..................................................... 36%
Reject................................................................ 56%
Not sure ............................................................ 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1019513.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         286
GOP advantage                                             134       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 102
Modest 25
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 216


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on October 23, 2011, 10:19:27 PM
Bobby Jindal was just  re-elected in Louisiana.  For good reason his approval rating will stick. Had he been defeated or had he decided not to run for another term, then Louisiana would have gone blank.

Re-election does not start the ratings over for a governor. End of a term without a re-election does, whether the cause is defeat, resignation, death, or removal through impeachment or recall.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on October 25, 2011, 01:06:21 AM
http://mtsusurveygroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/MTSU_Poll_Fall2011_Report.pdf

Quote
Fifty-one percent of Tennesseans approve of the job Bill Haslam is doing as the state’s governor. Although this is
the narrowest of majorities, it dwarfs by more than 3 to 1 the portion of Tennesseans who say that they disapprove
of the job Governor Haslam is doing (16 percent). However, a noteworthy slice of the Tennessee population, 33
percent, has yet to express a decisive opinion about the job Haslam is doing as governor, opting instead to say they
don’t know or would rather not answer the question.


PPP. Hawaii. This is not a misprint. This prose leaves no doubt:

Quote
Abercrombie least popular gov. in U.S., HI wants gay marriage
Raleigh, N.C. – Move over, John Kasich. Step aside, Rick Scott. Take a hike, Scott
Walker. There is a new least popular governor in town, and he is a Democrat from one of
the bluest states in the country, Hawaii. Neil Abercrombie’s net approval rating has
plummeted 33 points since PPP last polled the state in March, when he had a decent 48-
41 spread. That is now 30-56, nine points worse than the previous most hated governor
on which PPP has polled this year, Ohio’s Kasich.

Hawaii Survey Results

Quote
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Neil
Abercrombie’s job performance?
Approve................. 30%
Disapprove............ 56%
Not sure ................ 14%

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 212



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on October 25, 2011, 01:24:44 AM
What the hell could Abercrombie had done to piss people off?


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on October 25, 2011, 09:10:11 AM
Quinnipiac and PPP basically concur on Ohio:

Quote
Gov. Kasich's standing is in the same negative neighborhood as SB 5, with Ohio voters disapproving of his job performance 52 - 36 percent, down from 49 - 40 percent disapproval in September's survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Union-bashing is a losing proposition for Republicans in this very purple state:

Quote
Ohio voters support 57 - 32 percent the repeal of SB 5, the centerpiece of Gov. John Kasich's legislative program, as the margin against the governor's measure has almost doubled in the last month, from 51 - 38 percent for repeal September 27, a 13-point margin, to a 25-point margin in today's Quinnipiac University poll.


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1665


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 13
Huge 212




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on October 26, 2011, 09:43:07 PM

The passionate contempt that Scott Walker got earlier this year has largely abated. Has the governor  learned to say as little as necessary and avoid making controversial statements? Or has he trended 'moderate'?

Quote
Wisconsin Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?
Approve................. 47%
Disapprove............ 51%
Not sure ................ 2%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_1026424.pdf


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 57
Modest 3
Huge 212




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on November 02, 2011, 12:38:51 PM
Maine, PPP -- It's been a long time (March) since Maine was polled, and Governor LePage remains unpopular.

Quote
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Paul LePage’s job performance?
Approve................. 43%
Disapprove............ 48%
Not sure ................ 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ME_1102424.pdf



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 57
Modest 7
Huge 208




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on November 08, 2011, 12:57:31 PM
Mississippi Survey Results

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Quote
Haley Barbour’s job performance?

Approve................. 60%
Disapprove............ 29%
Not sure ................ 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MS_1106925.pdf

No crosstabs were shown on the distribution of approval and disapproval on Governor Barbour  based on race -- but on about everything else, race determines more what side one stands on than does anything else in Mississippi. That includes age, economic status, the rural-urban split, and educational achievement. It also largely defines partisan affiliation.

The Republican (unless Herman Cain) will defeat Barack Obama about 65-35 in Mississippi in 2012. Count on that.  

"K" is for the eleventh month of the year and has no other significance on this map.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 57
Modest 7
Huge 208





Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on November 08, 2011, 09:53:31 PM
Quote
A PPP update after a couple weeks in Ohio:

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich’s job performance?
Approve................. 33%
Disapprove............ 57%
Not sure ................ 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1106925.pdf

"K" is for the eleventh month of the year and has no other significance on this map.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 57
Modest 7
Huge 208






Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on November 16, 2011, 06:49:28 AM
Quote
New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie holds onto his high 56 - 38 percent job approval rating despite his failure to make any gains in last week's legislative elections, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Today's results are little changed from Gov. Christie's 58 - 38 percent approval in an October 12 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Approval is 90 - 8 percent among Republicans and 62 - 31 percent among independent voters. Democrats disapprove 66 - 28 percent. Men approve 60 - 35 percent and women approve 52 - 42 percent.

Voters approve 70 - 18 percent of the way Gov. Christie handled the October snowstorm, with strong support among all groups and in all regions.

"Gov. Christopher Christie got a big bump in his job approval last month after he told New Jersey voters they were stuck with him because he wasn't running for president," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1673




Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 57
Modest 7
Huge 208


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on November 16, 2011, 05:38:44 PM
Scott Walker. Governor of Wisconsin, Republican. Recent efforts to resuscitate approval have apparently failed. He isn't exactly Bob MacDonnell or Christopher Christie.

18% strongly approve
20% approve
21% disapprove
37% strongly disapprove
2%   have not heard of
3%   don't know
0%   refused

http://wpr.org/announce/survey1111/2011f-survey-1.pdf




Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 7
Huge 218

[/quote]


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on November 18, 2011, 09:29:47 PM
California Survey Results

Quote
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Jerry Brown’s job performance?

Approve................. 46%
Disapprove............ 38%
Not sure ................ 16%

It hadn't been updated since April.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CA_11181118.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)



  
Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         284
GOP advantage                                             138       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 62



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 62
Huge 163



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 19, 2011, 02:29:31 AM
Could John Kasich be the next Robert Taft? Ohio sure knows how to pick them.

A +8 rating for California is pretty good considering the 12% unemployment rate.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on November 19, 2011, 05:05:01 AM
Could John Kasich be the next Robert Taft? Ohio sure knows how to pick them.

Kasich doesn't quite have the pedigree. Other than that? Taft got caught up in a culture of corruption in Ohio politics. Kasich isn't so much corrupt as he is doctrinaire, the latter creating its own problems. I doubt that he saw the consequences of his choices. 

America over-reacted to slow economic improvement and got some really-bad government.  We may be getting a harsh civics lesson -- basically, don't count on the politicians to get us the economic results that we want. Getting good economic results isn't as easy as it looks.   

Quote
A +8 rating for California is pretty good considering the 12% unemployment rate.

California still has the paradise climates and spectacular scenery along the coastline, so it is going to remain attractive even in hard times. Who would want to move to Houston from the San Francisco Bay Area or San Diego?  If the cost of living is high, so are the wages. Californians are far less mobile than Americans elsewhere. Proposition 13 has given people a strong incentive to not relocate because anyone who buys a new house has to pay the higher tax rates on newer housing; the tax rate on a heavily-appreciated piece of property is nearly frozen. Local governments need supermajorities just to raise taxes, and it has been that way since 1978.

With the high costs of real estate California has lots of young adults staying in the old nest... and they have strong incentives to stay with their parents even if such hinders their careers. 




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on November 22, 2011, 10:34:03 PM
Arizona, PPP. This may be on the whole as relevant to the prospective Senate race as to the Presidency. Whatever allure the GOP has had in Arizona has largely vanished:

Quote
Arizona Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jan
Brewer’s job performance?
Approve................. 42%
Disapprove............ 49%
Not sure ................ 9%

I predict that the Democrats are going to need plenty of bottled water to campaign effectively in Arizona in 2012. The Senate seat will probably mean more to President Obama than will the 11 electoral votes. 

Quote
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
McCain's job performance?

Approve ................. .34%
Disapprove............. .55%
Not sure ................. .10%

Probably his last term. Becoming irrelevant?

Quote
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Kyl's job performance?
Approve ................. .41%
Disapprove............. .44%
Not sure ................. .14%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_1122.pdf

------------------------

One can't win with this sort of disapproval; thus the open seat. This could reflect demographic change. He has been a Senator for a very long time, so the "not sure" indicates that many Arizona voters are having a hard time deciding whether they would vote for him if he were running for re-election.

The Republicans may be overstaying their welcome in Arizona. What happened recently in Colorado may be happening in Arizona in part due to changing demographics (a fast-growing Mexican-American contingent of the electorate).

The writing is on the wall for a GOP disaster in Arizona.

A warning to the GOP:

TEXAS
 is the next GOP disaster for much the same reason as Arizona is now
.




Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         295
GOP advantage                                             127       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 25
Slight 48



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 47
Modest 73
Huge 163



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on November 30, 2011, 02:17:32 PM
PPP, Pennsylvania. Corbett is back underwater politically, and he doesn't look like much help for any Republican nominee in 2012 in a state that could make a huge difference.

Quote
Pennsylvania Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Tom Corbett’s job performance?
Approve................. 37%
Disapprove............ 43%
Not sure ................ 20%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_1129513.pdf

In such arguable swing states as Arizona (11), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10), unpopular Republican Governors might have a hard time getting the Republican presidential nominee any aid through good-old-fashioned electioneering. Those states have 110 electoral votes, and the Republican nominee will need at least half of their electoral votes to have a reasonable chance to win.    




Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             107       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 0
Slight 48



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 54
Modest 93
Huge 163




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on December 06, 2011, 03:24:22 PM
Quote
Florida Survey Results

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Scott's job performance?
Approve ................. .26%
Disapprove............. .58%
Not sure ................. .16%

It's a good thing for Rick Scott that military coups don't happen in America's states. I understand that Florida doesn't have recall elections, but I wouldn't be surprised if people are looking for grounds for impeachment.  When one's approval rating is about half the percentage that one won with a year earlier, something has to be fishy, and I am not referring to the finny creatures of lakes, rivers, and seas in or surrounding the state. Incompetence? Corruption?

Quote
Q4 If you could do last year’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Republican Rick
Scott or Democrat Alex Sink?
Rick Scott............... .37%
Alex Sink................ .53%
Not sure ................. .10%

Q7 If the candidates for Governor next time were
Republican Rick Scott and Charlie Crist,
running as a Democrat, who would you vote
for?
Rick Scott............... .32%
Charlie Crist ........... .55%
Not sure ................. .13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_1205.pdf

One possible consequence, not that I am looking at the US Congress here as my primary focus:

Quote
Q8 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democrat ............... .46%
Republican............. .40%
Not sure ................. .14%

Florida has 27 (6%) of the 435 Congressional Representatives. The generic ballot for Congress  shows a gap of 6% in favor of the Democrats. That suggests that a big chunk of the Florida Congressional delegation will switch from R to D as the result of the 2012 election. Any Republican in a district less R than R+3 will be vulnerable.

"L" stands for December, 12th month of the year, and not in Rick Scott's case, "LOSER".



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             107       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 0
Slight 48



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 54
Modest 93
Huge 163


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on December 08, 2011, 05:50:50 PM
Doing fine here:

Quote
Colorado Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Hickenlooper’s job performance?
Approve................. 53%
Disapprove............ 23%
Not sure ................ 24%

"L" stands for December, 12th month of the year.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             107       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 110
Modest 0
Slight 48



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 54
Modest 93
Huge 163

[/quote]


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on December 10, 2011, 11:39:17 AM
Quote
North Carolina Survey Results

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?
Approve................. 37%
Disapprove............ 48%
Not sure ................ 14%

Campaign staffers from 2008 have been indicted. Enough said.



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             107       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 125
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 54
Modest 93
Huge 163



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on December 11, 2011, 12:42:36 PM
The other Carolina:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Nikki Haley is handling her job as governor of South Carolina?

 http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804&ekmensel=fee512e3_566_0_9804_3
   

All
   
34.6%  approve/  43.0% disapprove

Only those with an opinion
   
44.6% approve/   55.4% disapprove
   

Really, I thought that she would be doing better than that. Nikki Haley looks as if she will be of no use to the Republican nominee for President.

Quote
Among the Winthrop Poll findings:  

    When asked about Barack Obama’s job performance as president, 44.8% of all respondents approved, while 47.8% disapproved.  

    Among likely Republican Presidential Primary voters, 38.4% said their first choice to be the Republican nominee was Newt Gingrich. This marks a dramatic jump from the September 2011 Winthrop Poll when Gingrich won just 5.3% of the vote. Mitt Romney came in second with 21.5%, while Rick Perry who placed first in the Winthrop Poll in mid-September, came in third with 9%.

    It is clear that accusations of sexual harassment and an extra-marital affair had already taken a toll on Herman Cain in South Carolina before he suspended his campaign. Whereas in September’s poll, 7.7% of likely primary voters chose him—and his star appeared on the rise from April’s Winthrop Poll when he posted 2.1%--in this latest survey he dropped to 6.6%.  

    63.4% of all respondents said it is NOT possible to address national budget concerns without any tax increases on any groups.
 
    Affection for the Tea Party in South Carolina may be on the wane. Among Republicans, 83.3% said they did not consider themselves members of the Tea Party movement—a marked jump from the September Winthrop Poll, when 67.8% felt that way. Meanwhile, 61.4% say they approve of the Tea Party.

    Almost one-in-four Republicans said they were not familiar enough with the Tea Party movement to have an opinion of it.

The GOP is going to have to expend a huge amount of resources  to keep South Carolina from voting for Barack Obama and perhaps protecting Senator Graham. The state is within range of you-know-who. I'd love to see the generic ballot for the US Congress for South Carolina.


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             107       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 125
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on December 16, 2011, 02:08:31 PM
Republican Bob McDonnell is doing fine in Virginia even if the President and the two Democratic Senators are doing well there:


Quote
Virginia Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bob
McDonnell’s job performance?
Approve................. 45%
Disapprove............ 33%
Not sure ................ 22%

I guess that any politicians who do their jobs well and don't push extreme agendas will do fine in 2012.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             107       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 125
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Tender Branson on December 17, 2011, 09:09:31 AM
New Indiana poll by Ball State University:

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Governor Mitch Daniels is doing?

52% Approve
28% Disapprove

http://cms.bsu.edu/Academics/CentersandInstitutes/BowenCenter/PolicyResearch/HoosierSurvey2011.aspx

...

OK, so they polled Indiana - but NO presidential poll once again *GRRRR* *HEAD EXPLODES !*


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on December 17, 2011, 01:44:15 PM
New Indiana poll by Ball State University:

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Governor Mitch Daniels is doing?

52% Approve
28% Disapprove

http://cms.bsu.edu/Academics/CentersandInstitutes/BowenCenter/PolicyResearch/HoosierSurvey2011.aspx

...

OK, so they polled Indiana - but NO presidential poll once again *GRRRR* *HEAD EXPLODES !*

Maybe they will get to the Presidential matchups in a couple of days. Lots of statewide issues were brought up.  In view of how Republican Governors are doing in Michigan and Ohio and in near-neighboring Wisconsin, this seems a bit high. Perhaps Governor Mitch Daniels shrewdly avoids doing things that might inflame voters.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             118       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 136
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Tender Branson on December 18, 2011, 01:56:37 AM

OK, so they polled Indiana - but NO presidential poll once again *GRRRR* *HEAD EXPLODES !*

Maybe they will get to the Presidential matchups in a couple of days. Lots of statewide issues were brought up. 

No, the poll is already on their site for quite a while and it was done in mid-November ...


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Tender Branson on December 20, 2011, 07:40:44 AM
Another popular GOP governor:

PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

"Nearing the end of her first year in office, Governor Martinez has a 65% approval/29% disapproval rating for her job handling."

http://nmpolitics.net/Documents/1220.POSPollOnMartinez.pdf


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on December 20, 2011, 08:50:00 AM
Another popular GOP governor:

PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

"Nearing the end of her first year in office, Governor Martinez has a 65% approval/29% disapproval rating for her job handling."

http://nmpolitics.net/Documents/1220.POSPollOnMartinez.pdf

Quote
Susana Martinez boasts strong, cross-party approval numbers for her
performance as Governor.

Nearing the end of her first year in office, Governor Martinez has a 65%
approval/29% disapproval rating for her job handling.

The Governor’s approval rating has actually improved over the course of the year,
from 59% approval in March to 64% approval in August to 65% in the current survey.

• Among Republicans, Martinez holds a 90% approve/7% disapprove rating; among
Independents, 62% approve and 29% disapprove, and; among Democrats, Martinez is
at 49% approve/44% disapprove. Among soft Democrats, her approval rating is 74%
approve/17% disapprove.

• Sixty-two percent (62%) of Hispanics and 68% of white voters approve of the job
performance of the Governor.

That is what I consider effective. See also McDonnell in Virginia. (Only one data point on Daniels in Indiana -- sorry!)

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             118       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 136
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on December 20, 2011, 08:47:43 PM
Quinnipiac on Cuomo as Governor of New York. It is an A-B-C-D-F poll instead of the traditional "approve-disapprove",

A 10  B 53  C 25 D 6 F 3

Any way you cut it, 53% B is good everywhere but grad school and bond ratings.    

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             118       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 136
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on January 12, 2012, 08:58:36 PM
The first statewide poll of approval of a Governor since before Christmas and the first of 2012:

Quote
Gov. Rick Scott has a negative 38 - 50 percent job approval rating, compared to his previous high score, a negative 37 - 50 percent score last September 11, still one of the lowest job approval ratings of any governor in the seven states in which Quinnipiac University conducts surveys.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1688

In this case, "A" is definitely not a letter grade.
 

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             118       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 136
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on January 13, 2012, 06:37:04 PM
As a rule, ratings for any governor must be removed when that governor

(1) dies
(2) resigns
(3) is removed through impeachment, or
(4) comes to the end of his allotted term without having been re-elected.

This time it is Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi.

 

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             112       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 130
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163





Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on January 17, 2012, 11:03:19 PM
Quote
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?

Approve................. 32%
Disapprove............ 51%
Not sure ................ 17%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_Gov%20011312.pdf

I am surprised that Republicans aren't making much of the fact that the feminine form of the past participle of the French verb perdre (to lose) is perdue (lost). With constituencies that distrust the knowledge of a foreign language, perhaps only a Democrat could think of that.

"A" is for January, first month of the year, and as with Rick Scott in Florida, it is definitely not a letter grade.

 
Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             112       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 130
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163






Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on January 18, 2012, 10:51:44 AM
Quinnipiac uses letter grades to rate Governor Chris Christie in New Jersey. Rating "A" and "B" as approval and "D" and "F" as disapproval, we get this:

Quote
Grading Christie at the half-way point in his first term, New Jersey voters say: A - 20 percent; B - 31 percent; C - 23 percent; D - 14 percent; F - 12 percent. 

That is very good for a Republican governor who has been through a full year in a very D-leaning state  -- 52-26. I'd say that that shows an effective Governor. 

 
Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             112       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 130
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 45
Modest 102
Huge 163







Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on January 19, 2012, 06:05:48 PM
Quote
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 42%
Disapprove...................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%


Ugly. 
 
Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             112       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 130
Modest 0
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 140
Huge 163








Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on January 25, 2012, 07:26:53 PM

Quote
Q15
(I’m now going to read you a list of people and organizations. Please tell me if you have a
favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of them or if you haven't heard enough about him yet to have an opinion.)
Scott Walker?


Favorable 353 50%
Unfavorable 314 45%

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/MLSPJanToplines.pdf

Unfamiliar poster. It looks like an outlier until one looks at an Obama-vs. Romney matchup:

Quote
Q29
If the 2012 election for President were held today, would you vote for Barack Obama, the
Democrat or for Mitt Romney, the Republican?
N %
Obama 336 48%
Romney 280 40%


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   17
Obama advantage                                         305
GOP advantage                                             122       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 130
Modest 10
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 17

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 140
Huge 153


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on January 27, 2012, 11:27:21 PM
PPP, Minnesota

Quote
Minnesota Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mark Dayton’s job performance?
Approve................. 53%
Disapprove............ 34%
Not sure ................ 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012712.pdf

President Obama isn't going to need any help in Minnesota, anyway. The only ways in which he appears in Minnesota will be to help someone win a Congressional election (Amy Klobuchar will need no help) or in the wake of some natural disaster.


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             122       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 130
Modest 10
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 140
Huge 163



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on January 28, 2012, 10:24:32 AM
Bob McDonnell continues to outperform almost all other Republicans.

The final political question added to the survey by Mason-Dixon asked about Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell's job performance. A majority of likely voters, 63 percent, rate McDonnell's performance as either "excellent" or "pretty good," while only 30 percent think he is doing an "only fair" or "poor" job.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/01/poll-shows-kain.php

"A" is not a letter grade here, but it might as well be.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         315
GOP advantage                                             122       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 130
Modest 10
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 140
Huge 163




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Tender Branson on February 02, 2012, 10:58:12 AM
Time to update your maps with a new set of polls for the Rocky Mountain governors:

http://www2.coloradocollege.edu/stateoftherockies/conservation_west_survey/Politics_in_West.pdf


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Tender Branson on February 02, 2012, 11:04:16 AM
Brownback is in negative territory:

36-49

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=47a767c3-dff1-4a91-b02d-49b068e3cc6f


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: greenforest32 on February 02, 2012, 11:18:24 AM
Another recent poll for Oregon Governor: http://news.opb.org/article/poll-shows-oregonians-turning-optimistic-about-states-direction/

Quote
Governor John Kitzhaber's approval rating increased from 50 percent to 51 percent.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: Hash on February 02, 2012, 11:30:03 AM
Brownback is in negative territory:

36-49

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=47a767c3-dff1-4a91-b02d-49b068e3cc6f

Wow. Why is that?


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on February 04, 2012, 01:20:42 AM
Quote
Missouri Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jay
Nixon’s job performance?
Approve................. 44%
Disapprove............ 31%
Not sure ................ 24%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_020312.pdf

"A" is not a letter grade here, but it might as well be.


Kansas (SUSA):

Can any Kansans do any explaining -- is Sam Brownback incompetent or something?

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=47a767c3-dff1-4a91-b02d-49b068e3cc6f


Approve 36%  disapprove 49%

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         321
GOP advantage                                             122       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 130
Modest 10
Slight 33



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 140
Huge 169


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on February 04, 2012, 01:46:08 AM
Rocky Mountain Polls, January:

Brewer, R-AZ 47-45

Hickenlooper, D-CO 67-19

Schweitzer, D-MT  65-24

Martinez, R-NM  61-27

Herbert, R-UT 68-17

Mead, R-WY 77-11

http://www2.coloradocollege.edu/stateoftherockies/conservation_west_survey/Politics_in_West.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble

No governor or an independent governor ... white

(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         310
GOP advantage                                             136       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 139
Modest 4
Slight 44



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 129
Huge 169


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on February 07, 2012, 12:21:25 PM
...CT, Yankee Institute and Rasmussen:

• Senator Richard Blumenthal:       62% approve, 31% disapprove (net +31)
• Senator Joe Lieberman:                 53% approve, 43% disapprove (net +10)
• President Barack Obama:              53% approve, 44% disapprove (net +9)
• Governor Dannel Malloy:              51% approve, 46% disapprove (net +5)

http://www.yankeeinstitute.org/2012/02/voters-back-obama-murphy-in-new-poll/

Big improvement for the Governor since September.


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         317
GOP advantage                                             129       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 132
Modest 4
Slight 44



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 136
Huge 169



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on February 07, 2012, 05:22:32 PM
Quote
Ohio Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich’s job performance?
Approve................. 33%
Disapprove............ 53%
Not sure ................ 14%

Q2 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Ted
Strickland or Republican John Kasich?
Ted Strickland ....... 56%
John Kasich .......... 36%
Not sure ................ 8%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rob
Portman's job performance?
Approve ................. .26%
Disapprove............. .32%
Not sure ................. .42%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of the job House
Speaker John Boehner is doing?

Approve ................. .28%
Disapprove............. .54%
Not sure ................. .18%


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         317
GOP advantage                                             129       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 132
Modest 4
Slight 44



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 136
Huge 169




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on February 14, 2012, 06:47:36 AM
Two polls next to each other. The first is by PPP:
 
Quote
Ohio Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Kasich’s job performance?
Approve................. 33%
Disapprove............ 53%
Not sure ................ 14%

Q2 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Ted
Strickland or Republican John Kasich?
Ted Strickland ....... 56%
John Kasich .......... 36%
Not sure ................ 8%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rob
Portman's job performance?
Approve ................. .26%
Disapprove............. .32%
Not sure ................. .42%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of the job House
Speaker John Boehner is doing?

Approve ................. .28%
Disapprove............. .54%
Not sure ................. .18%

The second is from Quinnipiac:

Quote
Gov. John Kasich's job approval numbers remain poor, although they are getting better, as 40 percent of registered voters approve of how he is doing his job compared to 46 percent who disapprove of how he is running the Buckeye State. Those numbers are little changed from the negative 39 - 48 percent job approval rating in a January 19 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, but are better than the negative 36 - 52 percent approval rating in an October 25, 2011, poll.


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1704

In accordance with my rule, the later poll reigns:

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         317
GOP advantage                                             129       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 132
Modest 4
Slight 44



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 154
Huge 151





Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on February 18, 2012, 09:29:57 PM
Rick Snyder, R-MI, PPP . Still underwater.

Quote
Michigan Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Snyder’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 40%
Disapprove...................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_216.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         317
GOP advantage                                             129       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 132
Modest 4
Slight 44



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 152
Huge 153





Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on February 29, 2012, 12:56:08 PM
Quote
Wisconsin Survey Results (PPP)

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?
Approve................. 47%
Disapprove............ 52%
Not sure ................ 2%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_022812.pdf

Bill Haslam (R-TN), Vanderbilt, simple update

Chris Christie, R-NJ, Quinnipiac:

New Jersey voters approve 55 - 38 percent of the job Christie is doing as governor, compared to his all-time high of 58 - 38 percent October 12. Approval is 62 - 32 percent among men and 49 - 44 percent among women.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/search-releases/search-results/release-detail?ReleaseID=1711&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         327
GOP advantage                                             119       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 132
Modest 4
Slight 44



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 152
Huge 153






Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on February 29, 2012, 12:57:38 PM
It seems you forgot to change Wisconsin.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: argentarius on February 29, 2012, 04:11:40 PM
Am I imagining things, or is Quinnipiac more favourable to republicans than other polls in general?


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on March 01, 2012, 05:23:10 PM
It seems you forgot to change Wisconsin.

Correction made.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on March 01, 2012, 05:28:57 PM
Does Andrew Cuomo look like a highly-likely Next President of the United States?

Approve 67%, Disapprove 20%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5897288c-c667-4bc4-be81-23f0d47f5bd8

Simple update here.


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         327
GOP advantage                                             119       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 132
Modest 4
Slight 44



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 152
Huge 153






Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: morgieb on March 01, 2012, 07:05:51 PM
Wisconsin still blue.

Astonishing that nearly everyone in Wisconsin has an opinion on Walker.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on March 07, 2012, 05:43:30 PM
Quote
Maine Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Paul LePage’s job performance?

Approve................. 41%
Disapprove............ 52%
Not sure ................ 7%


Maine hadn't been updated since May of last year.

Maine voters must still wonder how they got that Governor.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ME_0307.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         327
GOP advantage                                             119       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 132
Modest 4
Slight 44



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 148
Huge 157


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on March 09, 2012, 09:10:35 AM
California -- Brown (D)

The governor’s job approval rating among likely voters is at 46 percent, similar to January (44%). Since
taking office in January 2011, his approval rating has changed little, but disapproval has grown (20%
January 2011, 38% today). Fewer are undecided about Brown (33% January 2011, 16% today).

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/survey/S_312MBS.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         327
GOP advantage                                             119       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 132
Modest 4
Slight 44



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 148
Huge 157

[/quote]


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on March 31, 2012, 07:03:26 PM
Nebraska, PPP:

Quote
-Dave Heineman is the only sitting Governor in the country with an approval rating in the 60s in PPP's polling. 60% of voters think he's doing a good job to 27% who disapprove. What sets him apart from most of his peers is that even with Democrats he comes close to breaking even with 42% approving and 44% disapproving of him. That's a rare feat in this era of heavy partisan polarization.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/nebraska-miscellany.html

I am not splitting the state by electoral votes on this map.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         327
GOP advantage                                             124       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 137
Modest 4
Slight 44



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 148
Huge 157



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 01, 2012, 07:50:21 PM


Quote
Massachusetts Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Deval Patrick’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 48%
Disapprove...................................................... 37%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_322121.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         327
GOP advantage                                             124       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 137
Modest 4
Slight 44



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 148
Huge 157



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 02, 2012, 09:57:55 AM
I hereby remove two year-old polls for Georgia and Nevada. "D" should apply to April 2012 and not to April 2011.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         327
GOP advantage                                             102       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 137
Modest 4
Slight 28



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 148
Huge 157




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 02, 2012, 03:25:44 PM
Quote
Majority Want Walker Recalled

A new Rasmussen survey in Wisconsin shows a majority of voters want Gov. Scott Walker (R) recalled in the June 5 election, 52% to 47%.

Key finding: 53% disapprove of his job as governor with a whopping 46% saying they "strongly disapprove" of him.

"D" stands for April as the fourth month of the year, and not "disaster" -- in case someone like Cuomo or Hickenlooper is polled this month

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         327
GOP advantage                                             102       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 137
Modest 4
Slight 28



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 148
Huge 157





Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 04, 2012, 02:46:06 PM
I delete a year-old poll for Nevada, and PPP gives us a new one for the Governor of Nevada.

Quote
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Sandoval’s job performance?
Approve................. 46%
Disapprove............ 31%
Not sure ................ 23%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NV_040412.pdf

Governor Sandoval will not be enough to keep Nevada from going for President Obama even if he is the VP nominee:
Quote
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%
Undecided....................................................... 6%

Q10 If the Democratic ticket for President was
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the
Republican ticket was Mitt Romney and Brian
Sandoval, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden.................................................. 50%
Romney-Sandoval .......................................... 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

The Presidential race is not going to be close enough in Nevada that a popular governor could make enough of a difference as a VP nominee.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         327
GOP advantage                                             106       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 141
Modest 4
Slight 28



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 148
Huge 157


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: argentarius on April 04, 2012, 02:58:08 PM
Nevada is dark red it should be dark blue.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 04, 2012, 04:02:50 PM
Nevada is dark red it should be dark blue.

Correction made.


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 05, 2012, 03:43:04 PM
Indiana:

Quote
With a 63% job approval rating among all voters, Mitch Daniels is among the most popular governors in the country (along with New Mexico’s Susana Martinez and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo).  The majority (53%) of all voters think the state is heading in the right direction, compared with 26% who think the country is.

http://howeypolitics.com/main.asp?SectionID=10&SubSectionID=278&ArticleID=7612



Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         327
GOP advantage                                             106       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 141
Modest 4
Slight 28



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 148
Huge 157



Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 07, 2012, 01:48:26 PM
Maine -- Governor Paul LePage is laying an egg, and it isn't an Easter egg.

Quote
Do you approve or disapprove of how Paul LePage is handling his job as governor?

39-56

http://mprc.me/research/mprc_0412can12.pdf




Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         327
GOP advantage                                             106       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 141
Modest 4
Slight 28



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 148
Huge 157


[/quote]


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on April 07, 2012, 01:58:50 PM
Any recent polls for Tom Corbett's approvals?


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 07, 2012, 07:46:04 PM
Any recent polls for Tom Corbett's approvals?

It's been a while -- November. I doubt that he has gotten any better. Quinnipiac polls Pennsylvania often, so I may have missed recording a poll involving him as ratings stay stable.

The one that would be extremely interesting now is Governor Bob McDonnell (R-VA), for whom I have a latest poll in January. Bob McDonnell was doing very well for a Republican pol in a state in which President Obama has frequently made look like a likely repeat in 2012. That may have changed.

   


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 07, 2012, 10:38:07 PM
Chris Christie, NJ

Quote
NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J – While Gov. Chris Christie’s favorability ratings show little change since a February Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, New Jersey voters have become more likely to describe him as stubborn, arrogant and self-centered than they were six months ago, a new survey finds. At the same time, a majority thinks strong leader, independent and smart are also good descriptors of the governor.

Forty-six percent of respondents feel favorably toward Christie while 42 percent do not, virtually unchanged since February. The governor received an “A” or “B” for his job performance in both polls from 43 percent of voters while 30 percent gave him a “D” or “F.”

http://news.rutgers.edu/medrel/news-releases/2012/04/little-change-in-sup-20120405

A or B -- positive, D and F -- negative.


Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         327
GOP advantage                                             106       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 141
Modest 4
Slight 28



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 148
Huge 157




Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 13, 2012, 02:26:28 PM
Colorado Survey Results (PPP)

Quote
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
John Hickenlooper’s job performance?

Approve................. 57%
Disapprove............ 24%
Not sure ................ 19%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_041312.pdf

I suppose that he is an effective governor and a good match for a leftward-trending Colorado.

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         327
GOP advantage                                             106       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 141
Modest 4
Slight 28



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 148
Huge 157



[/quote]


Title: Re: Governors' statewide popularity
Post by: pbrower2a on April 15, 2012, 03:37:08 PM
And then there's Andrew Cuomo:

Sixty-three percent give him a positive job performance rating compared to 36 percent negative (up from last month’s 57-42 percent).

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY%20April%202012%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf

Deficit or surplus for a Democrat or Republican:

  1%   to    4%       ... color 20%
  5%   to    9%       ... color 40%
10%   to  15%       ... color 60%
15% or greater     ... color 80%

EVEN                     40% yellow

red -- incumbent Democratic advantage
orange -- incumbent Democrat in trouble
blue -- incumbent Republican advantage
green --incumbent Republican in trouble


No governor or an independent governor ... white


(
)

Now for the gubernatorial advantage for the President:

Use the same intensity, but if the Republican is in trouble or the Democrat is in positive territory, then color the state red. If the Democratic governor is doing badly or the Republican Governor is doing fine, then color the state blue. A tie for either -- it's yellow.  

(
)

 


No advantage                                                   7
Obama advantage                                         327
GOP advantage                                             106       
 



Separating the advantages into "huge" (10%+), "modest" (5-9%), "slight" (under 5%), and none or indeterminate:

Republican advantage:

Huge 141
Modest 4
Slight 28



No advantage or indeterminate 7

Democratic advantage:

Slight 6
Modest 148
Huge 157



[/quote]
[/quote]