Talk Elections

To be unlocked at 10pm.

Polls have closed

And all the parties are doing what they always do; expectation management.

Word is that Ron Davies's latest attempt at a comeback has ended in defeat; again, these are only rumours.

Further rumours; Cardiff North and Cardiff Central are tight, Vale of Glamorgan apparently looks like a Labour hold.

Rumours.

Aberconwy? That would be nice. But only rumour.

BBC reporting that Carwyn doesn't expect to hit 31...

Reports of horror stories for the LibDems in quite a few places where they've polled well in the past; but not Ceredigion where they sound oddly bullish.


Right now no one really knows about that; most of what's been parroted on the BBC are the talking points rattled off by party spokesmen when the polls closed.

Ron Davies now calling for an inquiry into the Plaid campaign.

Cardiff Central is reported as being close (this would be a massive swing on 2007 no matter what, btw). And if the rumours... let's remind ourselves of that word... are right, then Montgomery has gone.

God, I'm sick of mere rumours. Can we have some proper results now?

Rhodri remains the king of style...

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...well maybe not.

Blaenau Gwent declaration is apparently fairly soon. Bloody referendum though; mucked everything up.

Labour gain Blaenau Gwent. Now there's a shock.

Labour 64.0, Ind 18.9, Plaid 5.4, Con 5.3, BNP 4.7, LDem 1.8

Apparently Plaid have requested a recount in Llanelli

Oh, and a massive 'boooo' to the BBC. The coverage has (yet again!) been shocking. Sort it out.

But they keep saying "Llanelli"! ;D ;D ;D

The linguist's favourite constituency? Ah, but once there was also Abertillery and Bedwellty.

Nah.  The more "ll", the better, so the two "ll" is excellent.  Also, "rh".  Is there any constituency with "ll" and "rh"?

Labour hold Islwyn. Plaid hold Ceredigion. Well. So sayeth twitter.


No; there's the Rhondda though. Though locals don't usually pronounce the 'rh'.

Islwyn up on the BBC website; Labour vote up 20pts. Of course there was a strong Independent there in 2007.

Labour gain Llanelli.

Oooh, they were speaking Welsh! <3

Labour hold Merthyr. LibDems back down to third; an independent came second.

Labour hold Cynon Valley

Montgomery falls; not even close. The Labour candidate manges a moral victory as well; double digits!

Labour hold Newport East; massive increase in the majority.

Big Labour win in Ponty.

Con Gain Montgomeryshire (sp?) from LD...but the bbc said this could mean the Tories would lose a list seat?  How does this work?

Plaid hold Ceredigion; LibDem vote actually held up. Plaid's fell; a lot of it Greenwards.

Off to get a little bit of sleep now; or an attempt to. Looks good so far.

Cardiff North and Cardiff Central not in yet. But the Tories held their Pembrokeshire seats. Which means that their leader - who sits on the list - is out.

Caerphilly not even slightly close. Time for someone to call it a day...

Apparently we've taken Cardiff Central by thirty eight votes

We've gained Cardiff North as well... I think. BBC are not doing very well...

Both confirmed elsewhere. Anyways, UKIP have not won a seat on the South Wales East regional list, despite earlier speculation to the contrary.

Excellent. UKIP can DIAF.

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Mystery surrounds the BBC's decision to illustrate the National Assembly election with this particular photo from a count:

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That - and the ironic defeat of that nasty little sh!t Bourne - are things that people of all parties can come together to celebrate.

The Greens didn't make it.

Full results from the Battle of the Morgans:

Julie Morgan, Labour, 47.6
Jonathan Morgan*, Con, 42.4
Ben Foday, Plaid, 5.4
Matt Smith, LDem, 4.6

Morgan was an excellent MP and ought to be an excellent MP as well. She's also performed Labour quite a service; Morgan was one of the brighter people in the Tory group and would likely have become leader what with Bourne going down. As it is...

And Cardiff Central...

Jenny Rathbone, Labour, 37.9
Nigel Howells, LDem, 37.7
Matthew Smith, Con, 15.1
Christopher Williams, Plaid, 7.2
Mathab Khan, Ind, 2.2

Delightful result; I'd be hoping for this one for a while :)

Those are the anglicized spellings though. Abertyleri has no ll. (Bedwellte does, of course.)

Still used to throw people :)

LDs hung onto a list seat in SWW by 54 votes (versu Plaid). :(

Missed that. Sh!t. Peter Black is a self-righteous prick and his defeat would have been rather sweet.

Then again, they lost their list seat in SWE by 128 votes, also versus Plaid.

Reports that IWJ has held Ynys Môn. Given that there were no whispers this time round, no surprise,

That is a very nice map.

Kinda funny, but Labour's massive vote gains in Wales don't translate into seat gains - they're just earning the seats they held anyways. ;D (ie, the massive overhangs they got to keep, and others got to lose under the Welsh and Scottish system, in South Wales have evaporated.)

Arfon is a Plaid hold and looks from the BBC figures like a good result for them; but no votes for the LibDems? And some other details missing as well. wtf?

The totals don't add to the total vote cast - presumably they just forgot to enter the LD's 4.6% of the vote.

What happened to the Plaid vote in Aberconwy - personal vote owner standing down?

Ah, right. lol.

We'd have done better if the original candidate hadn't suddenly resigned in a hissy fit at the end of February ::)

Not that it matters; not a priority seat outside Westminster elections.


Yes. Incumbent AM was probably the most right-wing Plaid ever had elected to the Assembly; he had a massive personal vote in some very Tory parts of Llandudno.

The worst thing - the very worst thing - about using twitter to follow these elections has been the absurd whinging from some of the more... out there... Plaid supporters. Obviously it sucks to lose seats, and it's worse to lose your best performers (Plaid have lost their two best AMs) but that's really no excuse for the ridiculous droning.

Ah, the SLP phenomenon strikes again; they've taken over 2% on the list vote.

Oh, and all constituencies are in. I don't think the regionals are quite finalised yet, but we know the general picture. BBC project Labour 30, Con 14, Plaid 11, LDem 5.

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I think that's the final result.

Constituency vote
Labour    28    +4    401,677    42.3    +10.1
Conservative    6    +1    236,916    25    +2.6
Plaid Cymru    5    -2    182,907    19.3    -3.1
Liberal Democrat    1    -2    100,731    10.6    -4.2
Others    0    -1    27,021    2.8    -5.4

After 40 of 40 constituencies declared
Regions scoreboard
Help
Party    Seats    +/-    Votes    %    +/-%
Conservative    8    +1    213,773    22.5    +1.1
Plaid Cymru    6    -2    169,799    17.9    -3.1
Liberal Democrat    4    +1    76,349    8    -3.7
Labour    2    0    349,935    36.9    +7.2
Others    0    0    139,532    14.7    -1.5
Turnout    949,388    42.2    -1.1

Of course, the regional seats comparison is mighty silly, the beeb doesn't want to understand the way the law works.

Plus ten is nice. And now I have to eat something solid...

If you think that's bad you should hear the Glasgow and West Fife Labour Party supporters :D

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The LibDems lost seventeen deposits, the Tories one. Labour took over 60% in five constituencies.

So, what next? A BBC article on the general subject. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-13315241) Needless to say the atmosphere is totally different to the one in 2007, but it's also different to 2003; as the Tories finished second there's an additional layer of security added to the victory.

Meanwhile, the Tories have appointed Paul Davies (Preseli Pembroke) as their interim leader. Not sure who their proper one will end up being; the obvious successor having been defeated in the battle of the Morgans.

I've not heard any rumours about IWJ's leadership, though I'll note that he briefly quit after 2003 when Plaid won 12 seats. On Thursday they won 11. Still, who's left to take him down now? HMJ and Dai Lloyd both lost their seats, and so did Nerys Evans who foolishly chose to contest a constituency seat rather than stay on the list.

And that's £8,500 that the LibDems won't be getting back, btw.

I notice there's really only one seat Labour left on the table (a list seat in the North, or alternatively a freak gain in the Northwest. Result's the same.) Short of a 97/01 repeat, a majority is really almost impossible to achieve.

To the shock of no one, Labour have announced that they'll be going it alone for now, but will continue talking to other parties over the next few months. This is the logical thing to do for multiple reasons. Carwyn also made remarks basically stating that he likes consensus politics, but then we knew that anyway.

Anyways, the Tories want the job of Presiding Officer to go to one of them. Dafydd El will not be happy (presumably he'll want to keep it). Though obviously its Labour votes that will decide.

Actually no. He doesn't want it and is stepping down. Might actually go to a Labour AM this time, though who knows.

Various things...

1. The new Presiding Officer is Rosemary Butler (Labour, Newport West) and the new Deputy Presiding Officer is David Melding (Con, SWC List). Melding beat another Tory to his post; there was a secret vote.

2. Carwyn's cabinet is as follows:

Leighton Andrews (Rhondda) - Education
Janice Gregory (Ogmore) - Chief Whip
John Griffiths (Newport East) - Environment
Lesley Griffiths (Wrexham) - Health
Edwina Hart (Gower) - Enterprise
Jane Hutt (Vale of Glamorgan) - Finance
Huw Lewis (Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney) - Housing, Regeneration & Heritage
Carl Sargeant (Alyn & Deeside) - Local Government

With the following deputy ministers:

Gwenda Thomas (Neath) - Social Services
Jeff Cuthbert (Caerphilly) - Skills
Alun Davies (Blaenau Gwent) - Agriculture, Food, Fisheries & European Programmes

This is a smaller cabinet than last time. Whether this is significant or not is certain but has caused the usual speculation. Oh, and it's now the Welsh Government, not Welsh Assembly Government.

3. IWJ is going to resign as Plaid leader at some point fairly soon. Which is not a surprise. Dafydd El has - more or less - already declared that he's going to run. Which is not a surprise.

Going through the regional figures today. Not sure when anything will come of it, but whatever. Anyway. 3% for the SLP on Anglesey? Hmm... I have a theory, but I'll have to check through more results first.

(they appeared on the ballot as 'Plaid Lafur Sosialaidd/Socialist Labour Party'. Now if you were scanning down quickly...)

The map you've all been waiting for!

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Top five constituencies for each party on the list vote... well... after a certain point just top two and then only if there's something interesting to report...

Labour

1. Blaenau Gwent - 62.7%
2. Aberavon - 57.2%
3. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 55.4%
4. Rhondda - 54.6%
5. Ogmore - 54.1%

Conservatives

1. Monmouth - 42.2%
2. Montgomeryshire - 37.0%
3. Clwyd West - 36.5%
4. Cardiff North - 36.2%
5. Preseli Pembrokeshire - 35.8%

Plaid Cymru

1. Arfon - 47.5%
2. Dwyfor Meirionnydd - 45.6%
3. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr - 39.9%
4. Ceredigion - 36.5%
5. Ynys Môn - 35.8%

LibDems

1. Brecon & Radnorshire - 29.2%
2. Ceredigion - 26.8%
3. Cardiff Central - 25.8%
4. Montgomeryshire - 24.0%
5. Swansea West - 13.5%

UKIP

1. Montgomeryshire - 6.9%
2. Torfaen - 6.7%
3. Alyn & Deeside - 6.0%
4. Newport East and Ynys Môn - 5.9%

Greens

1. Cardiff Central - 9.1%
2. Cardiff West - 8.6%
3. Ceredigion - 6.2%
4. Cardiff South & Penarth - 5.8%
5. Montgomeryshire - 4.5%

SLP

1. Ogmore - 5.5%
2. Cynon Valley - 4.3%
3. Bridgend - 4.0%
4. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhmney, Rhondda and Swansea East - 3.7%

BNP

1. Blaenau Gwent - 4.9%
2. Swansea East - 4.6%
3. Islwyn - 4.5%
4. Torfaen - 4.3%
5. Alyn & Deeside - 3.8%

WCP

1. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney and Islwyn - both 1.7%
3. Newport West - 1.5%

Communists

1. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney - 0.5%
2. Arfon - 0.4%

English Democrats

1. Monmouth - 3.1%
2. Newport East - 1.4%

Actually, what I was waiting for was a spreadsheet of regional vs constituency votes, for both Wales and Scotland. ;DOkay, this surprised me.

Now let's see... I don't... as it happens... have a spreadsheet for Scotland. But I do have a spreadsheet for Wales; percentages only I'm afraid. But then I also have the screenshots with the raw figures.


47.5 and 45.6. In 2007 it was 51.4 and 49.7. Things being that way round then made a degree of sense (Wigley was on the regional list), but it's a little stranger this time. I suppose those Tories who live in the resorts are more likely to vote in Assembly elections than they used to?

Though on further reflection it's a little stranger; must mean that hardly anyone who voted for the Llais candidate voted Plaid on the list. Which is interesting.

Wheres the source data for this map?

On the sites of the councils that were responsible for counting the regional votes. I put all of the percentages into a spreadsheet; can email it to you if you want.

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-13451289)

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Maps of list votes for serious parties will come later...

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Update:

An inqury found that John Dixon (South Wales Central, DQ for being a member of the Care Council for Wales) hadn't realised he was disqualified because he didn't read the rules, so it was his own silly fault.  He isn't returning to the Assembly and the No 2 candidate Eluned Parrott has been sworn in in his place.

It turned out that the other AM involed, Aled Roberts (North Wales, DQ for being a member of the Valuation Tribunal for Wales) had gone to the Electoral Commission's website to check the rules and thought he was in the clear.  Unfortunately, he checked the Welsh-language pages which it turned out pointed to an outdated version of the rules, and not the English-language pages which were correct.  The Electoral Commission have apologised and the Assembly today voted 30-20 to reinstate him.

That seems like a reasonable resolution. No sympathy for Dixon, and as for Roberts... yet another example of the failure of some public bodies to take bilingualism as seriously as they ought to.

We now have figures on how much the parties spent during the election.

Tories £283,000
Plaid £173,000
Labour £153,000
LibDems £114,000

Calculation time!

Constituency vote
Tories: £1.19 per vote
LibDems: £1.14 per vote
Plaid: £0.95 per vote
Labour: £0.38 per vote

Regional vote
LibDems: £1.49 per vote
Tories: £1.32 per vote
Plaid £1.02 per vote
Labour: £0.44 per vote

Cost per seat
LibDems: £22,800.00 per seat
Tories: £20,214.29 per seat
Plaid: £15,727.27 per seat
Labour: £5,100.00 per seat

My conclusions: The Liberal Democrats wasted a lot of money that they probably couldn't afford to lose. Plaid Cymru also spent a bunch, especially considering how many seats they lost. The Conservatives spent a lot too, but I'm assuming they have the cash to throw around like that. It looks like Labour ran a very affordable-yet-effective campaign.

Given the parties can't not participate without forfeiting their role as a serious party, and that x party heartlands will always be more cost-effective for x party than their competitors, I don't think it's telling us much - interesting though!