Talk Elections

We might as well start this thread now. Let's try to keep the conversation here.

So far the candidates are...

Governor Ed Rendell (D)
State Senator Jeff Piccola (R)
Former Lt. Governor Bill Scranton (R)
Mac McCawley (R)

Rumored candidates

Congressman Pat Toomey (R)
Congresswoman Melissa Hart (R)

Let the discussion begin (though it kind of already has...)

The NEW PA-13 Thread :P

In ways, yes, it will be like that. However, the PA 13 thread will really start up again around June-July '05 when candidates start hinting at a run. The PA 13 thread will never die...

Rendell will win. Heard somebody on the radio predict he will win by double digits. It's certainly possible if his challenger is Piccola or Scranton.

Pennsylvania's Governor cycle:

Two terms. Switch parties.

Repeat.


I think the Republicans will wait until 2010 to really spend money on the Governor's race.

If Piccola or Scranton, I'm not that sure Rendell can win by double digits but I will agree that neither Scranton nor Piccola could defeat Rendell.

And whoever predicted a double digit Rendell win without having a good idea of who the nominee is pretty foolish and probably someone who doesn't know much about Rendell's approval ratings.

You mean the approval ratings that were taken last August in the midst of the Presidential election where his approval was pretty much exactly what percentage of the vote Kerry got? They are irrelevant, a new poll should be taken.

You're right. Let's take a new poll. After the whole absentee ballot controversy, I'm sure his approval ratings will be even worse than they were before.

What controversy? That blew over pretty quick.

All I know is I'm glad we have a progressive governor, it's exactly what this state needs. To be honest, both parties in PA are run by old people who don't want to let go of their dynasty. Rendell broke that mold which is why he's made enemies in both parties, but he's also been able to work together and passed more legislation then just about every Governor...legislation that actually means something like economic stimulus, the gaming bill, the Pittsburgh financial fix-up and the clean energy bill. Even you have to admit, he HAS accomplished a helluva lot for a only one-term and with a Republican house and senate.

Sure he's accomplished a lot...especially those tax hikes that he promised he would not propose. That's an accomplishment that I'm sure everyone is happy about. The gambling bill...well we have to wait and see to say whether or not that's an accomplishment. Personally, I'm not a big fan of the slots proposal. Then there's that medical malpractice problem that Rendell hasn't really addressed.

We'll just have to wait until the latest ratings come out to see who wins this argument. I expect his disapproval numbers to jump up maybe 2-4 points and his approval rating will probably drop to 49 or 50%.

"Nobody running for Governor who I think is a credible candidate can promise the people of Pennsylvania not to raise taxes," said Rendell. "There's a budget deficit that will approach $2 billion. It may go over $2 billion. Until we see what that deficit is, until we see how much money we can save, nobody can be honest and say, 'I'm not going to raise taxes, no matter what happens.'"

The gambling bill, while it had some flaws, was very tough. Pennsylvania will have the most regulated gambling industry in the country. BTW, Fisher was in favor of slot machines too...but he wanted to use the money for senior's prescription drugs. A noble cause, but I'd rather have it go towards education and property tax relief, wouldn't you? Besides, Pennsylvania's healthcare system is the envy of the country already, we are doing a pretty good job.

The medical malpractice issue was brought up in the legislature but it didn't have enough support from Democrats or Republicans.

I'd like you to go to this website http://www.ontheissues.org/Ed_Rendell.htm and then tell me what it has listed under Rendell's position on the economy and taxes.


Sure the fact that the slots money is going towards education and property tax relief is a good thing. However, I'm not sure if it was the best idea. We'll have to wait and see if it works. I have a feeling it won't be the great idea that everyone thought it would be.


Did Rendell push for it? I don't remember him addressing the issue that much and we had a situation last year when doctors were walking out. Some had to take their practice out of state. Now my State Representative, Denny O'Brien (R), is a really good guy. I'm glad he's my State Rep. He's also Judiciary Chair. For whatever reason, O'Brien is against caps. This, of course, hurts those who want med. mal. reform and it's one of the few issues that I am in disagreement with him.

My point: You brought up how this did not have enough support from Dems or Republicans. I brought up O'Brien to show that I am critizing him too and not just throwing the blame on Rendell on these issues. However, if Rendell could have pushed for med. mal. reform just as hard as he pushed for the slots, it would have helped our state and our doctors a great deal. Atleast show an effort to get this discussed. It's one of the major issues in PA.

()

Gov. Swann? Lynn might make a run Ex-Steeler seeking backing now

By CHRIS BRENNAN brennac@phillynews.com

TAKE Pennsylvania politics, mix in pro football and that can only add up to Gov. Rendell. Right?

Think again.

Lynn Swann, the former Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver who got a taste of politics as part of President Bush's re-election campaign this year, yesterday confirmed that he is thinking about running for governor in 2006.

"While a decision is not imminent, he is discussing the issue with family, friends and political leaders," a spokeswoman for Swann said, reading from an e-mail he sent her in response to questions from the Daily News.

That could pit Swann against Rendell, who does a Philadelphia Eagles post-game television show for Comcast SportsNet.

It might also set up a Republican primary battle between Swann, former lieutenant governor Bill Scranton III and state Sen. Jeffrey Piccola.

Bob Asher, a GOP National Committeeman from Montgomery County, said Swann called him Tuesday seeking support.

Swann will make his pitch to Republican leaders this weekend in New York City during the annual Pennsylvania Society event.

"I think if Lynn Swann stays in it, you'll see an interesting year as everybody moves around and builds support," said Asher, who has not decided on a candidate to back in 2006. "I think right now it's wide open."

Piccola yesterday said Swann called him Tuesday to say he was interested in making a run for governor. He praised that courtesy, calling Swann "a class guy."

Piccola, who will also be drumming up support at Pennsylvania Society, said he is "97 percent" sure he will run for governor.

"I'm way down the road," Piccola said. "I'm gearing up."

Scranton did not return phone calls yesterday.

Swann has also been making calls for support from Republican leaders in the General Assembly.

Rendell seems well-positioned to win re-election in 2006 after navigating through a Republican-controlled Legislature a package of campaign promises that includes legalizing slot machines to increase education spending and lower property taxes.

Democrats and Republicans have taken turns since 1971 controlling the governor's office for eight years.

Speaker of the House John Perzel yesterday said Swann could be a strong candidate in western Pennsylvania but weighs that against the eight-year supremacy of sitting governors and Rendell's ability to raise cash.

"Somebody is going to have to have the wherewithal to raise the money to run against a guy who can raise $50 million," said Perzel. "It's going to take an exceptional individual or something drastic for that to change."

Swann was co-chairman of the African-American steering committee for the Bush-Cheney campaign this year. Bush appointed him in 2002 as chairman of the President's Council of Physical Fitness and Sports. And Swann spoke at the Republican National Convention on Sept. 2.

In an interview with Fox News later that night, Swann was asked why he is a Republican.

"They provide platforms, and they don't give people crutches to walk on," he said. "They give them tools to build. "

Swann, contacted this week at his home in Sewickley Heights, near Pittsburgh, referred calls to his company, Swann Inc.

Fans can visit his company's Web site to view his career football statistics, book him as a paid speaker or purchase a $200 autographed football.

Swann was a first-round draft pick for the Steelers in 1974 after playing in two Rose Bowls for the University of Southern California. He helped the Steelers win four Super Bowls, ending his career after the 1982 season.

He was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2001.

Swann reports on college football games for ABC Sports.

()

We all saw how well Paterno did, and that was in an overwhelmingly Republican district. Rendell would own him.

The first thing I was going to do was post that article, NHPolitico.

Dan, Rendell would not "own" him and how could you compare him to Paterno? Holden was a popular incumbent. I know you refuse to believe this but Rendell is not that popular.

Holden's district is 65% Republican and look how well he did....and Rendell is still quite popular. I have yet to see anybody predict, or even discuss the possibility of, his demise.

What is this "Rendell is still quite popular?" What...51% approval ratings? High disapproval ratings? If Piccola or Scranton get the nomination, yes, Rendell remain Governor. However, get someone who can fundraise and with good name ID and Rendell will lose.

As for Holden, while his district is 65% Republican, he is a conservative incumbent. That helps. It's unfair to say "Look at Paterno and see why a Democrat can win" and apply it to Rendell's 2006 race.

Gov. Swann.  I like that.

We don't really know what the approval numbers are -- again I think the ones taken in August are worthless and biased against Rendell.

BTW, Holden is moderate on social issues but liberal on economic issues. But my point is even in an overwhelmingly Republican district, his opponent with name ID was crushed. Even assuming Rendell isn't popular -- running against some dimwit with name ID (in a state that has a half million more Democrats) is going to be a cakewalk.

What were Ridge's accomplishments?

Oh biased against Rendell....of course...Democrats actually losing something? Impossible...

The fact that Holden was an incumbent was enough and he must be conservative enough if a district that's 65% Republican overwhelmingly supported him.

Now for this comment that Rendell would be running against "some dimwit." You must really think Rendell is unbeatable. That "dimwit" not only has name ID but he'd be able to bring in the cash without a problem. And then you use the argument "Well there's a half million more Dems..." While that would seem like it would help Rendell, you have to accept the fact that even Dems dislike the guy. Sure you'll find the folks like IrishDem in Philly but besides that, this Ed Rendell is not the Rendell he was two years ago. Accept it. If Piccola or Scranton aren't the nominee, Rendell will lose.

1. You make the point that whoever the nominee is going to get a ton of money. Incorrect --- the Republicans are going to put up a sacrificial lamb against Rendell because they know the odds are stacked way against him. There will not be much money coming into the Republican campaign against Rendell.

2. I've already said before that yes Rendell has made quite a few enemies, even among Democrats. That's because both parties in PA are run by old farts trying to protect their territory, it's sad but true.

Another Candidate

According to http://www.grassrootspa.com ANOTHER conservative Republican from western PA is likely to jump into the race.

Who could it be? Hart? They're also saying that fundraising would not be a problem for this candidate...

Some bad news on Swann: He donated to Kerry and Specter :(  

Some good news: He's Pro Life.

Only confirms your thought that you think Rendell is unbeatable. The odds are NOT stacked against the GOP and the reason I brought up fundraising is because Swann himself can bring in the cash.

Incumbent advantage...every Governor has been re-elected...Rendell is still popular. These are commonly known facts, don't deny it. The Republicans just aren't going to spend a lot to take down Rendell, they are going to put it into saving Santorum.

Every incumbent Governor gets re-elected in PA? Not true. The pattern shows that in recent elections that's true but not "every" incumbent. Also, I don't think incumbents had such low approval ratings. Rendell is no Casey. Rendell is no Ridge.

Well forget that idea. She's not the latest likely candidate. Here's why:

This individual is both a solid social and fiscal conservative, with one GOP operative comparing his political philosophy to that of Ronald Reagan.

Rendell's approval ratings aren't brilliant, but (last time I checked) they're not actually bad... Ernie Fletcher or Bob Riley would kill for them.

Besides, to beat Rendell the PA GOP needs a moderate (or at the very least someone who is moderate on some things).
Running the most right wing candidate that throws their hat into the ring doesn't strike me as a particulary intelligent idea in a state where the Democrats have a small (but very notable all the same) built-in advantage...

Once again, Democrats might have a small advantage registration wise but many of those Democrats are conservative who aren't pleased with the Governor. Rendell has made some enemies within his party. And the PA GOP can run a conservative to win.

There's 500,000 more Democrats in PA then Republicans. I would call that more then a "small" registration advantage.

It doesn't matter if it's "big" or "small." It's obviously not enough since the GOP controls the two Senate seats, the State House, the State Senate, the Attorney General post and a majority of seats in the Congressional delegation.

PA is a very odd state politically.  It's the only state I know of that could elect three such dissimilar people as Ed Rendell, Arlen Specter and Rick Santorum to its main statewide offices.

Based through studying its various regions, my conclusions as to these oddities have come from the fact that eastern PA is filled with Philadelphia and a whole lot of liberal Republicans, western PA is filled with Pittsburgh and a whole lot of conservative Democrats (rivalling Indiana in that spectrum) and central PA is hardcore Republican.

The Dem registration advantage is a myth, IMO.  Exit polls in 2000 showed voters self-identified as 40% Rep, 40% Dem, 20% Ind and my gut would tell me that didn't change a lot in 2004.  I trust self-identification more than party registration in nearly every state where there is party registration.

Polls do tend to be fairly accurate in PA.  It is, in my mind at least, the quintessential swing state (much more so than Ohio) and tends to work well off of balance.  For example, one of the reasons why I think that Santorum will win barring a good candidate is because he is such a nice compliment to Arlen Specter in terms of Republican party thought.  This could quite as well help Ed Rendell as well, depending on who runs against him.

We'll see.

Hmm. Barring a Schweiker surprise run...

I like the idea of Swann.

The GOP better be very careful...they run a conservative and they will lose the SE (and with it the state) to the Philly Governor. (Who by the way...I like...especially on Eagles Postgame)

We agreed on a lot on this post! Wow.

I doubt Toomey will be running now. I'm hoping for Hart. If neither of those two run, I want Schweiker or Swann.

The part where we disagree - the fact that you like the "Philly" Governor especially on Post Game Live. I'm not fan of that.

Dent for Governor?

http://rendellblog.blogspot.com/2004/12/charlie-dent-possible-gubernatorial.html

Very interesting. And apparently, Dent has been trying to find out who some of the State Senators support in the GOP primary.

My Eddie is going NOWHERE!  He will be serving the state of Pennsylvania until 2010 and at that him either Chris Heinz or him will be replacing Sen. Specter.

"My Eddie is going NOWEHERE!" The only thing you guys can say. It's like "No one can beat Ed Rendell because he likes the Eagles...he likes a good cheesesteak...Ed Rendell is AWESOME!" Give me a break. As for Chris Heinz, he's another person going no where. We learned that the while the name helps, it doesn't mean its a win. Example: PA 17.

We have our first drop out. Mac McCawley has ended his bid for the GOP nomination for Governor.

Ummmm... there are many, but I fail to see how that relates to this.

As for your other comment, Santorum doesn't need to be saved.  He saved Specter.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=650

The latest Quinnipiac numbers are out for Governor Rendell.

Rendell enjoys a 52% approval rating (same as Santorum) but a lower disapproval rating (30%). Rendell looks good in this area (unfortunately) but wait a second. That's what the poll release says at the beginning. As you scroll down, the numbers show somethign different.

Rendell - 51% approve. 33% disapprove. That's a drop of one point in the approval rating area and a three point jump in disapproval.

Rendell vs. Piccola - 52% - Rendell and 28% - Piccola
Rendell vs. Scranton - 50% - Rendell and 35% - Scranton
Rendell vs. Swann - 50% - Rendell and 34% - Swann

Bad news for Rendell.

48% want to see Rendell re-elected while 38% do not want another four years.

So in the end it looks like this:

Rendell - 51% approve/33% disapprove
Specter - 55% approve/34% disapprove
Santorum - 52% approve/31% disapprove

Santorum has the lowest disapproval rating.  :)

I was about to post this.  Nice work Phil.

Looks like any GOP candidate looks to have a shot.  Only 50 percent at this stage of the game is bad news.

Rendell would beat Piccola or Scranton. I'm hoping for Swann.

If Casey runs for senate I think Rendell will win easily.  To much money, time and energy will be focused on keeping Santorums U.S. Senate seat and the GOP gubernatorial candidate will be left out in the cold.

It would probably be the opposite. Most big time Republicans might just give up on Santorum if he has to run against Casey.

Actually, now that I think about it.  If Casey runs for U.S. senate he may take alot of money away from Rendells re-election bid and possibly cost him the election.  Man, I wish I lived in PA.  The 2006 campaigns and elections up there are gonna' be great.

http://www.draftswann.com

Check out the second story on the site. Terry Modonna, who is supposed to be the best political analyst in the state, says that Piccola represents the conservative wing of the GOP in the primary. What a joke. I'm beginning to lose respect for Mr. Modonna.

Agreed  :)

While I am hoping for an easy Santorum win (meaning Hafer or someone like her as the Dem nominee) it will still be a great race. Also, Swann vs. Rendell will be a good one, too. I love PA politics.

Interesting article on Swann and the PA Gov. race.

http://www.time.com/time/archive/preview/0,10987,1034700,00.html

Awww, Pennsylvania Democrats. Keep telling me how popular Eddie is.

From grassrootspa.com (http://grassrootspa.com)


SURVEY USA/WNEP POLL: CASEY 49% SANTORUM 42%, RENDELL 50%, SWANN 44%!!!



Hat tip Justin.

Times Leader:

A new statewide survey shows Democratic Pennsylvania Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. holding a 7-point lead over two-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pittsburgh, in the 2006 senate race.

Conducted by SurveyUSA for WNEP-TV Channel 16, the survey asked 506 registered voters around the state who they would choose in the senate race. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.

The results showed Casey with 49 percent to Santorum's 42 percent. Eight percent of the poll respondents were undecided.
...
The SurveyUSA poll also showed Gov. Ed Rendell with a 6-point lead over potential Republican challenger and former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann. The poll showed Rendell with 50 percent, Swann with 44 percent and 5 percent undecided.

The poll did not ask voters about the other two potential Republican candidates for governor next year, former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton and Harrisburg state Sen. Jeffrey Piccola.

Looks good for Rendell. I could see his challenger, possibly Swann, getting about 44%. Give almost all the undecideds to Rendell. 55-44 looks like a good outcome.

danwxman, I agree.  How is some washed up Steelers WR giving Rendell a challenge?  I mean is that the best the GOP can do? 

We may have to pound the pavement on Santorum as well.  How is this jackass getting these good poll numbers?

You do understand that Swann is a legend out in western PA, right? Why don't you quit it with the ignorance and acknowledge that there is more to the state than SE PA.

dan, 50-44 is not good for Rendell. How can you still argue that he's a lock?

And, once again to Flyers, Santorum ("jackass" as you call him) has good poll numbers because...now get ready for this one...people like him.

Anybody named after a team that isn't playing this year shouldn't be taken seriously.

Further and GOP candidate that has never run a statewide race, and was never really a statewide figure, getting 44% of the vote against an incumbent governor, means the governor is very BIG trouble!

In the case of Senator, you have a two candidates that have run statewide, one of whom, the one holding a lesser office, has the same name as a popular former governor, indicates a close race.

Governor Hart?

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/opinion/archive/s_312426.html

If Hart jumped into the race, I'd probably support her over Swann but after gaining a seat on Ways and Means, I'm not sure if Hart would give that up for a Gubernatorial run.

Why is it that during the Presidential Race we gave all the undecideds to Kerry, the challenger, but in the governor's race we give all the undecideds to Rendell.

Explain please.

They have no reason. They paint the best picture when it comes to Rendell's chances.

Duh, they're Democrats. Democrats are unbeatable in Pennsylvania :P

He's a moderate Democrat.

As moderate as Kerry is

I'd say he's center-left but that's not even the point. Address his approval/disapproval numbers. Address the fact that he's only up 6 points with 5% undecided (meaning this election could swing any way).

Your Eddie isn't the lock you think he is.

True. But you'd have to admit his job is a lot safer than Ricky's.....

I'll admit that but only because Casey is running. If it were Hafer vs. Santorum, I'd say Rendell was at a greater risk. Some of your friends really think he has this thing locked up. It's ashame how oblivious they are.

Rendell's wrapped it up. If Toomey runs, Rendell will win in a landslide. If Hart runs, what governor race.

Chuckie P for Senate LOL

Are you kidding? If Toomey were to run (which he won't), he could win.

Riiiiiiiiiighhttt.....

You do realize that Toomey would take the Lehigh Valley (an area Rendell won in 2002) and would run strong out west, right?

He'd do awful in Pittsburgh. His extremist right-wing views are out of touch with the people I know. He could win Greene County, though.

First off, he's not extreme right wing. I hate how your side tosses that label around.

Secondly, yes, he'd do bad in the city but he'd likely to well elsewhere in the area especially since Rendell is pretty unpopular out west.

any Republican would do bad in the city.

Even..............O.J. SIMPSON?!?!?

what?

Does Swann have any political record or experience to run off of?  Other than his name he seems like an pretty weak candidate to me.

He is the Chair of the President's Fitness Council.  :)

Here's another famous Chair of the Council...

()

Some (like myself) already knew about this but for anyone that doesn't know about Scranton's 2000 endorsement for President, take a look at this:


grassrootspa.com (http://grassrootspa.com)

MYSTERY: Who Did Bill Scranton Endorse In 2000? Hagelin Or Bush!?!?



Who Did Bill Scranton Endorse For President In 2000?

Was it Natural Law Party Candidate John Hagelin Or George W. Bush?

PoliticsPA has a picture of Scranton supposedly endorsing Bush.

But wait, Politics1 disagrees!

From Politics1:

HAGELIN IS ENDORSED BY:(Partial Listing)
Ex-Reform Party National Secretary Jim Mangia (Reform-CA)
Ex-Reform Party National Chairman Russ Verney (I-NH)
Independence Party of New York State
Ex-Independent Presidential Candidate Lenora Fulani (I-NY)
Ex-Watertown Mayor Jeff Graham (I-NY)
Ex-Lt. Governor Bill Scranton III (R-PA)

Rendell just made a mistake.  He's brought up some gun control issues.  Opps!

If that turns into one of the major issues in the 2006 race, I think Flyers and danwxman better get over to the Governor's mansion as soon as possible. He'll need help packing.  :)

Rendell comes off as a strong campaigner and candidate in general to me.  I really cannot see him losing re-election.  I have no clue why ???  But I just get that feeling.

Oh he's a strong campaigner and personally, people feel very comfortable with him. That stronger campaigner will return in 2006 but now he has a record to defend. Now he will have to deal with an electorate (especially out west) that doesn't embrace him as they once did. Whether PA Dems on this forum want to admit it or not, this is not the same Rendell as the one from 2002.

Where do you live? This "west" I live in apparently hates him?

I live in Philadelphia but have spoken to a Pennsylvanian from the Pittsburgh area and have seen his numbers around that area. Not good or atleast not as good as 2002.

Piccola, Scranton bash Rendell on taxes, record
Monday, March 21, 2005
BY PETER L. DeCOURSEY
Of The Patriot-News

Sen. Jeffrey Piccola, R-Dauphin, says he is running for governor to abolish school property taxes and replace Gov. Ed Rendell.

Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton and Piccola each outlined their case to be Rendell's GOP challenger before the Federation of College Republicans Friday night at the Hershey Lodge and Convention Center.

A third Republican eyeing the race, Lynn Swann, did not attend the event.

Piccola said Rendell's property tax reform plan was passed in 2004, but no tax reduction is scheduled until 2007.

Piccola told about 100 College Republicans, "significant property tax relief ... isn't coming. Probably not at all, and certainly not anytime soon."

He said it was time to go further than reducing property taxation for school funding, "We can no longer use a 19th century tax to fund a 21st century priority."

"Our next governor must work and produce the repeal of property taxes to fund public education in Pennsylvania."

Piccola said he would discuss specifics in the coming months.

Scranton was less specific, as he invoked Ronald Reagan as the model of a Republican "who changed history by defeating a Democratic incumbent. ... That is how you change history.

"We have a terrible habit in Pennsylvania. Every eight years, we elect a Democratic governor. Just when we've taken two steps forward, cut taxes, reduced regulations that stop job creation, then we elect a Democrat and take two steps back.

"Never before has an incumbent governor been defeated in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. And ladies and gentlemen, never before has an incumbent governor deserved to be defeated more than the current governor, Ed Rendell. After two years, all he has given us is higher fees, higher taxes and gambling."

Rendell has declined to answer attacks by GOP opponents, "Re-elections are referendums on the incumbent. And voters know what we are doing, and I believe we will win based on our record."

Piccola emphasized his experience as a legislative Republican working to defeat Rendell's plans but did not mention that he ultimately voted for the tax hike and education initiatives he continues to oppose.

"We need to get the government out of the way of the people of Pennsylvania and the job creators of Pennsylvania," Piccola said. "[Rendell] calls this his plan for the new Pennsylvania. We don't need a new Pennsylvania. What we need is a new governor."

Swann's absence disappointed many of the College Republicans. He also skipped the Republican State Committee's most recent weekend meeting in Harrisburg to play at a celebrity golf tournament for a five-figure fee.

"If he wants to be governor, he better start coming to events and showing it," said Mitchell Bashur, 19, a western Pennsylvania native and official in the Dickinson College Republicans. Bashur was born after Swann retired from pro football, but said, "it's in our blood in Steeler country to be Lynn Swann fans and I am. But he needs to get out here."

Swann has trailed Piccola and Scranton in public appearances, but has made a few public speeches. He spent last Monday in Harrisburg in closed-door meetings with Senate President Pro-Tem Robert C. Jubelirer, R-Blair, and other GOP leaders.

Unlike Piccola and Scranton, who say they are committed to running, Swann says he is still pondering the viability of a run.

PETER L. DeCOURSEY: 783-5196 or pdecoursey@patriot-news.com

-------------------------------
Swann didn't show up?!?

Former foes praise Rendell's leadership
Sunday, March 20, 2005
BY PETER L. DeCOURSEY
Of The Patriot-News

The Democratic State Committee members who spurned Gov. Ed Rendell's candidacy three years ago are now praising his leadership and the party's winning record.

And, as state committee members met at the Holiday Inn East in Swatara Twp. on Friday and yesterday, they said they hoped Rendell will help the party win two state Senate special elections.
      From Our Advertiser


      
            

"He won the governorship. We won three out of four statewide judges in 2003. Kerry won the state last year, and so did Bob Casey for treasurer and Jack Wagner as auditor general," said Bill George, president of the statewide AFL-CIO. "The governor raised millions to help us win those races and is a great spokesman for our party."

In 2002, George was a major supporter of Casey's candidacy against Rendell for the Democratic nomination for governor. Now he says, "Governor Rendell is rebuilding the Democratic Party with the leadership it needs."

Harrisburg City Councilwoman Linda Thompson also backed Casey. "I knew Bob Casey and his family in 2001. Ed Rendell was from Philadelphia, and I didn't know him. Now I have seen his leadership, and our success as a party owes a lot to our governor."

Jack Hanna of Indiana County, another Casey supporter in 2002, praised Rendell for more than his record of wins and losses.

He noted that Rendell has ended an era of costly primary elections that hurt the party and has strongly supported candidates who disagree with Rendell's support of abortion rights, something party leaders failed to do in the past.

But Hanna, Thompson and George also see a challenge in state Senate special elections. On April 5, residents of Allentown and its suburbs will fill the seat vacated by Charles Dent when he was elected to Congress last year. On May 17, voters will fill the Allegheny County seat vacated by Jack Wagner's election to auditor general.

Polls show Democrat Wayne Fontana trailing state Rep. Mike Diven, R-Allegheny, in the Wagner district, and state Rep. Jennifer Mann, D-Lehigh, trailing state Rep. Pat Browne, R-Lehigh, in the Dent seat.

Rendell has been pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into both races.

"Those are our priorities for two reasons," Hanna said. "First, they could indicate what will happen in our big races in 2006, since we need to do well in both districts in the Senate and governor's races. But also, we need to stop losing House and Senate seats, so the governor doesn't have to be a contortionist to solve Pennsylvania's problems. These are big important races, and the party understands that from the governor on down."

PETER L. DeCOURSEY: 783-5196 or pdecoursey@patriot-news.com

Yeah, he should really be attending these events especially since it's known in the political community that he'll be running.

Rendell is going to be very, very tough to beat. I wouldn't bet against him. But I hope he loses all the same.

It will be tough but many SE PA Dems like to look at Rendell as this absolutley unbeatable force. He is not a lock for re-election. If someone says, "I think he's going to win." Fine. I'll disagree. But don't start with this "Oh he won't have any problems."

Wow, I learn something new everyday! All of my neighbors HATE Ed Rendell! Whoa, I didn't know I lived by so many flaming Republicans! (Sarcasm)

Instead of being a clown, answer this question: Is Ed Rendell liked as much as he was in 2002 right now in the western part of the state?

Someone said this to me the other day and I think it is the best way to address the 2006 gubernatorial race in PA.

Its not a question of whether Rendell will win or not.  Its a question of how much he will win by. 

And that person is obviously ignoring the approval/disapproval ratings of Rendell.

I agree.

Probably not, but it evens out, he is probably more popular in SE PA now than he was 4 years ago as well

No he's not. You really don't know this area. Is he still popular here? Yes. More popular? No.

Going up against someone like Swann he would do worse than he did in 2002 iN Western PA, but better than what he did in 02 in SE PA

A new Franklin & Marshall poll shows Rendell leading Swann by 30 percent and Scranton by 10 percent.

GOV GOP Primary Matchup 
Scranton        25%     
Swann           17       
Picola             8     
Undec/Oth     50

GOV General Matchups
Rendell   53%    Rendell     47%   Rendell   59%
Picola     23        Scranton  37      Swann     29
Undec/Oth 24    Undec/Oth 16     Undec/Oth 12

The same poll shows Casey leading Santorum by only 1%.

Rendell's not getting to 59% in a race against Swann. It could happen against Scranton or Piccola though.

Awwwwwww. I thought Eddie was so popular guys...

From grassrootspa.com (http://grassrootspa.com)

The survey finds Gov. Rendell with less than intimidating numbers for an incumbent governor. His job approval rating is 39 percent, compared to 56 percent for Tom Ridge at a slightly later point in his first term.

And when asked if Rendell deserved re-election, 45 percent said yes, while 43 percent said it's time for a change. As a rule, pollsters regard less than 50 percent on that question a sign of trouble.
...
Madonna said Rendell's approval ratings are particularly weak in western Pennsylvania.

Hmm, looks like Scranton has the early lead, Swann better get out there and start raising money.

Swann has made a few mistakes but there's no way Rendell is at 59%.

The real topic of debate here should be Rendell's dismal numbers. 45% want him in 2006 while 43% want a change. His rating is probably not 39% but likely in the mid 40s (which is not great).

The real debate should be, given Rendell's vulnerable looking numbers, why the Republicans weren't able to recruit anyone better than a washed-up football star to oppose him.

Casey is not moderate.

He is conservative on social issues.  Almost as much as Santorum.  There views are virtually indistiguishable from one anothers.

He is liberal on economics.  More liberal than Kerry, by far.  These stances do not a moderate make.

He is just a guy who does not walk party line.

You obviously aren't aware that that "washed up" football player is well liked in the western part of the state. Are there stronger candidates than Swann though? Yes, I believe so. Why isn't the PA GOP looking for a stronger candidate? Because they fall into the same category as some PA Dems. They see Rendell as an unbeatable force. I wish they would wake up, too.

Candidate Rendell strong despite weak job rating
3 possible contenders trail governor in poll 20 months before vote
Tuesday, March 22, 2005
BY PETER L. DeCOURSEY
Of The Patriot-News

Gov. Ed Rendell faces questions about his job performance but still leads all potential opponents by double digits, according to the new Keystone Poll.

However, only 39 percent of 531 Pennsylvanians surveyed said Rendell was doing an excellent or good job. More than 20 months before the 2006 election, 57 percent said his job performance was fair or poor.

Forty-five percent said Rendell deserved re-election, while 43 percent said it was time for a change, according to the poll.
            

On the positive side, Rendell "has the highest favorable ratings of any statewide politician, at 48 percent favorable, with only 28 percent viewing him unfavorably," said poll director G. Terry Madonna.

"But his job numbers are not strong," Madonna said. "They are consistently 15 to 20 points behind where [former Gov. Tom] Ridge's were. But his opponents aren't well-known.

"While the governor is still the favorite and the front-runner, there is a note of caution here for his re-election. This could be a very interesting gubernatorial election."

Rendell led former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton 47 percent to 37 percent. He enjoyed 30-point leads over former Pittsburgh Steelers football star Lynn Swann -- 59 percent to 29 percent -- and state Sen. Jeffrey Piccola, R-Dauphin, 53 percent to 23 percent.

In a primary matchup among the three Republican candidates, half of those surveyed said they were undecided. Of the three, Scranton led with 25 percent, followed by Swann at 17 percent and Piccola at 8 percent.

Piccola and Scranton say they are committed to seeking their party's nomination for governor in 2006. Swann says he is exploring a bid for the GOP nomination.

"Bill Scranton is the only challenger who put the governor's numbers under 50, which is important," said Mike Devanney, Scranton's campaign manager. "And his vote totals will grow as more people hear Bill Scranton's message for Pennsylvania."

The Piccola and Swann campaigns did not respond to requests for comment.

Rendell has said the election will be a referendum on the incumbent. He has professed confidence that voters, when reminded of his record, will re-elect him.

Polls show repeated GOP attacks on Rendell are denting his popularity, particularly outside the five-county Philadelphia region, where he is strongest politically.

Piccola and Scranton are making repeated attacks on the fact that Rendell promised prompt and significant property tax reductions in his 2002 campaign.

They argue he delivered neither, because Rendell has said homeowners will not receive property tax reductions from slot-machine gambling until 2007.

PETER L. DeCOURSEY: 783-5196 or pdecoursey@pnco.com

So, Rendell now has the highest favorable ratings of any statewide politician. One less thing Phil can claim about Santorum.

Um, that's been the case for about a month now.  Rendell had 54% and Santorum had 53%. 

Oh, did you make Phil aware of that?

Yeah, he made me aware of it

No. According to the Quinnipiac polls, Santorum still has better numbers than Rendell. Now I know you pointed out that one poll with Rendell doing great but what about the one I posted earlier today? They showed Rendell with 39% approval rating. 45% said they wanted him for four more years while 43% say it's time for a change.

Here it is again, dan.

Awwwww, come on, dan. I know you saw my last couple of posts. What's going on? That extremely popular Ed Rendell has 45% saying "four more years" but 43% aren't going along with it. While I think the poll if probably off on the approval rating, it's likely that Eddie is only in the mid 40s when it comes to his approval.

Now keep telling yourself he's a lock. "Solid Dem." Good one!

From what I have gathered and what you have said previous threads, Phil.  Rendell is a strong campaigner, good public speaker, and fairly charismatic.  Bascially he is at his best on the campaign trail.  From now until election day I can only see his numbers going up.  That isnt a good thing for the GOP candidates.

He's the most popular elected official in the state of Pennsylvania. He will have no serious opponent (nobody is going to be able to offer an alternative to those 43%). 45-43 seems pretty good to me right now...I'd expect Rendell to win back some support on the campaign trail and win by about 2-5 points. More if the Republican nominee is Piccola.

He's the most popular elected official yet only 45% want to see him get re-elected and 43% don't? His approval ratings aren't great, his disapproval ratings are the highest and he's the most popular?

Now I'm not saying Rendell won't win. I've admitted in the past that he is the favored candidate and whoever the GOP candidate is, they will have to face an uphill battle. However, victory can still come to the Republican candidate. Rendell is not the lock you'd love to imagine. I'm glad you're realizing that now.

Team 88 is up and running!

http://lynnswannteam88.com/

YEAHHHHHHHHHHH!

WOOHOO!

I'm about to piss my pants I'm so excited.

The Dems now have a choice: Casey or Rendell.

Unless the bottem falls out of the GOP campaign, they can't both be elected.

Don't tell them that! Their Eddie is a lock with only 45% wanting him for four more years and 43% wanting change. Now that's a one safe election for Rendell!

I didnt see a list of Swann's political accomplishments.  Where can I find them?

Why not?

I personally think Casey is a fairly weak candidate.  Once the name recognition part of the campaign wears off, and both candidates get down to the issues, Santorum will probably pull away. 

But Im still curious as to why you think both cannot win in the same election year?

Very funny.

Money.  The Democrats won't have enough money to throw into both races.  They either have to concentrate on electing one guy or the other.  Also, it will be difficult for the Dems and political PAC's to run broad based issue ad's since Casey and Rendell are almost total opposites.

He ran the Bush 2004 campaign in Western PA and generated the best numbers that a Republican candidate has had in that area since the turn of the 20th century.

Of course they have enough money!

The Democratic establishment will put copious amounts of money into Casey's campaign...and Rendell will raise a ton of money for himself. I have the feeling Rendell will see some huge donations from the gambling industry.

But unlike Fisher, Swann will be able to raise some big money for himself.

Sure. But I guarantee you Rendell will outspend him on the campaign. You know that.

That doesn't mean he will win. Rendell had no problems fundraising in '02 against someone like Fisher and won by only (and I say only because it was projected that he'd win by more) 9 points. Now he has some competition.

Ok... From that I have gathered that he is a great campaign manager.  What about political accomplishments?  In other words, what has he done for PA lately?

FOUR SUPER BOWLS BABY!!!


WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

:)

I get your point.  Just because he doesn't have elective expirience doesn't mean he will do badly, and, quite frankly, I don't like the "elective expirience" we have in there now.

Chip Brightbill endorses Piccola (not really a surprise) and details from the Monday Keystone Poll show Scranton with 25%, Swann with 17% and Piccola in the single digits with 8%.

http://www.pennlive.com/statehouse/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1111659856119990.xml

What is Scranton like?  Conservative, Moderate, or Liberal?

Moderate to liberal.

Why doesnt Toomey make a run for governor?  Right now hes just collection dust on the sidelines.

I think he's running the Club for Growth and biding his time until 2010.

Like Jake said, he's running the Club for Growth and he'll probably run for Senate in 2010.

Uh, if the Democrats won't have enough money to campaign furiously in two areas, why will the Republicans?

There are some VERY rich Democrats in Pennsylvania.

I hope he collects enough dust by then to not even be a factor.  SCHWARTZ 4 SENATE IN 2010!!!!

Toomey would destroy her.

Where does Swann fall on the political spectrum?  C-M-L?

Seems to be conservative.

No, he's kind of liberal. He has given a lot of money to John Kerry's campaigns for the senate, but campaigned for Bush in Pennsylvania, so it's hard to tell.

His donations to Kerry leave me scratching my head but he's not kind of liberal. His views are conservative.

Makes me wonder if it's because of Theresa since both Swann and T.H.K. have Pittsburgh connections.  It is puzzling though.

He might have some feeling of loyalty to her, as Sen. Hienz was also a Pittsburgher.

From Politicspa.com: Governor Ed Rendell's re-election campaign got boost from a National Journal article rating his campaign as the 30th most competitive gubernatorial campaigns of 2006, leaving only seven which it considers less competitive.

Quote from the National Journal: "While there are a lot of Republicans excited by Lynn Swann's candidacy, we're not convinced the former NFL star has the personality to go toe-to-toe with Rendell. In fact, Rendell probably knows more about football than Swann knows about government. Rendell is a political animal, and he'll have a ton of cash while Swann faces a tough primary."

Castor for Governor?

From PoliticsPA.com (http://PoliticsPA.com)

Sources close to Montgomery County District Attorney and former Pennsylvania Attorney General candidate Bruce Castor confirm there is a growing movement afoot to draft Castor into the 2006 Republican Gubernatorial Primary.  However, another source close to the District Attorney says he is doing nothing to encourage that movement even though they believe that "none of the announced Republican candidates has a ghost of a chance against Rendell because none of them can keep his plurality coming out of the SE to under 400,000, a total too great to make up.  It would be  Rendell/ Fisher II."  Sources close to the Castor camp say he is "perfectly happy" being District Attorney but also believes he could keep Rendell's SEPA margin lower than any other candidate.


He probably won't run for Gov. but a Lt. Gov. candidacy might happen. He would hold down Rendell's numbers in the SE better than any other candidate.

Politics PA reports that there is a movement to recruit Montco District Attorney Bruce Castor for Governor. Comments?

Check my post above.  :)

He has a huge ego but can win (I supported him in the AG primary but towards the end, he got really weird. Effect of his big ego). Have him as Gov. or even Lt. Gov candidate and he'd take away a good chunck of votes from Rendell in the SE.

:)
I'd rather Swann run and lose, and pick a good candidate to win in 2010.  To bad Corbett will be to old in 2010.

I don't know what I'd do if Castor were to run. He'll undoubtly turn into a big pain but he clearly has the best shot at winning.

2010 could be a huge year with potentially 2 statewide open seats (Governor and Senator) and a lot of people who seem ready to make runs.  Who do you think will win run for what?

Allyson Schwartz
Pat Toomey
Bob Casey (if loses his Senate bid)
Melissa Hart
T.J. Rooney
Todd Platts

Schwartz for Senate
Toomey for Senate
Casey for Governor (I think he'll run even if he wins the Senate race)
Hart for Governor
T.J. Rooney for Senate
Todd Platts for Governor (maybe)

Allyson Schwartz-Senate
Pat Toomey-Governor
Bob Casey-Governor, might actually break the trend
Melissa Hart-House again
T.J. Rooney-Senate
Todd Platts-House again

I could see Castor running for Governor here.

Castor considers run for Governor.

http://www.kywnewsradio.com/news_story_detail.cfm?newsitemid=45290


Rendell, Piccola, Scranton, Swann....everyone considering a run for Gov. in 2006 are afraid now...

I want PA Dems to see this and see if they insist that their Eddie is still safe for re-election.

Yes he is.  Remember Ed Rendell has WAY more star power than Bruce Castor.

Rendell's pretty safe.

This state has a habit of sticking 8 years per party control for governor.

You're crazy. Castor will cut into Rendell's base big time and the west can't stand Rendell to begin with.

What was it we were talking about Phil ?  A Castor/Swann ticket ?

Yes. Though Castor/Pippy would be a pretty good ticket, too.

New Rendell approval/disapproval ratings here, folks.

http://politicspa.com/temp/clay_2f.htm

Phil,

You dream. No offense dude.

Rendell's still going to run on his record as mayor...and he'll win big in the SE.

This state likes to have two term governors.

I dream? You're doubting Castor's popularity, dude? Do you realize his re-election results, dude? Do you realize that the west went for Rendell in 2002 but he's disliked out there, dude?

How can you say that Castor wouldn't cut into Rendell's base here? Rendell won Montco by about 36%. He wouldn't even get close to winning by that much if he had to run against Castor. That's not a dream. Now if I said Swann would cut into the base big time, then you could say I'm dreaming but you obviously don't understand the issue here.

 Flyers is this ultimate partisan hack who admires Rendell to no end. Rendell does no wrong, in his eyes.. I'm surprised you decided to go along with his nonsense on this issue.

I'm interested in what the Democrat reaction to these numbers are considering last summer a sub-50% number for Bush meant he was toast.  Now Eddie is in the same situation.  Somehow I don't think they are going to say he's toast.

The difference is Bush had very low (typically 5% or less) undecided.

Rendell has no strong challenger.

Bruce Castor wouldn't be a strong challenger? Here's a suggestion: Give up being a partisan hack for one day.

We're still 18 months away from the election.  One could easily emerge in that timeframe.

Here's the thing: If Montgomery county DA Bruce Castor runs, he will be the strongest challenger and would turn this into a very interesting race. Some PA Dems (danwxman) will refuse to admit it though. Got to love those partisan hacks.

lol....notice you are the only one who thinks that. You're such a horrible debater.

Umm, I haven't even commented on Castor yet. At this point, Rendell has no strong challengers. Sorry my friend.

I'm the only one that thinks what? That Castor would be a strong challenger? Ask Flyers what he thinks. And my debating skills have nothing to do with who can win. It's not my fault if hacks like yourself are so abundant on this forum.

I'm a partisan hack? Pot --> Kettle --> Black

Umm, I haven't even commented on Castor yet. At this point, Rendell has no strong challengers. Sorry my friend.

Really?



You're such an idiot.

In your eyes, Rendell is invinsible. You're the perfect example of a partisan hack.

I haven't made any comments on what I think about Castor...all I know is that even bullmoose disputes your claim.

I would be a partisan hack if only Democrats thought Rendell was invinsible...fact of the matter is even most Republicans on this board recognize Rendell will easily win re-election. Why? All challengers polling way behind, and no incumbent Governor has ever been defeated. You have a very hard time dealing with facts, Phil.

You were saying that I'm the only one that believed he was a strong candidate and made that seem foolish. Also, if you can't admit here and now that Castor is a strong candidate, than you're a partisan hack. No doubt about it.

I trust bullmoose on this one, sorry Keystone Hack.

Oh so no incumbent Governor has been defeated therefore Rendell cannot lose? That's good reasoning, dan.

Facts: Rendell keeps slipping in approval ratings. Rendell's negatives are high. You have a hard time with those.

Oh so you don't have an opinion. Is it because you don't know what you're talking about? I think so.

I've said it before I'll say it again...Rendell and Santorum are in nearly the same boat. The difference? Rendell has no strong challenger.

Castor would be a strong challeneger (if he runs)! Accept it!

My opinion is that bullmoose is a helluva lot smarter then you. He's also not a partisan hack.

Good argument (when you don't have one of your own to use). ::)

I don't think Rendell's been that great of a governor, I don't think he's been bad either...dude.

The problem is, the man is a cultural icon here. Sure he may not win by 36 points in Montco...but he'll win by enough in the SE to counteract any Republican gains out west. The SE has so many voters that the GOP would have to cream Rendell out west just to have a chance.

Rendell's still going to get the union endorsements (which is sad, because generally they just support anyone with a D after their name)...which means he'll keep it close in NE and SW PA.

Close enough where it won't matter.

The state party would be better served to spend the money on Santorum.

When I follow politics and see Rendell more on Comcast SportsNet, then we know there is a problem.



Not with Castor on the ballot. If he can't win the SE by the numbers he did in 2002, he's not very likely to win. Castor makes Montco very close and Bucks, Chester, Berks are all in play.


It won't help him enough in areas out west. Maybe the NE area but not the west.


I hate to say this but there might come a point where the state party has to focus on other areas. Say it's August of 2006 and Santorum is still down to Casey by 10-15 points. The state party is going to realize a Santorum win will is unlikely and shift the focus elsewhere. If Castor is our nominee, the money and focus will go to him.

Also, if the next poll to come out shows Santorum down the by 14 or so points, listen for the talk about retirement.

Word is that Castor met with GOP lawmakers and wants to see some poll numbers before he jumps into the race.

http://www.kyw1060.com/news_story_detail.cfm?newsitemid=45894

John Baer | Guv shouldn't worry about GOP triple play

THREE Republicans lining up to challenge Ed Rendell for governor next year are starting to make joint appearances. It seems a good time to offer early assessments.

This week, the three were together, speaking one after the other, at a GOP county dinner in York and the annual Pennsylvanians for Effective Government dinner outside Harrisburg.

Let's just say no one at this point will mistake them for The Magi.

The gifts they bring are meager: broad criticisms, few specifics and a general call for change. They do this showing little apparent differences and with deliveries, though practiced, less than sparkling.

I saw no audience member on his or her feet or, for that matter, mildly enthusiastic.

Candidates spoke in alphabetical order, so let's take them that way.

Jeff Piccola, 56, of Dauphin County, offers the most substantive remarks so naturally has the least chance.

He's a state senator with 28 years' legislative service, a lawyer and a member of Senate leadership.

His theme is, "lack of leadership." He says Democrat Rendell's only answers to state problems are to "raise taxes, raise fees, borrow money or gamble." He mocks Rendell's "New Pennsylvania," saying, "We don't need a 'New Pennsylvania,' we need a new governor."

Piccola's got some problems (other than too often repeating the word "Commonwealth"): He voted for Rendell's tax increase, he's a tad squishy on abortion, and nobody's ever heard of him.

Bill Scranton, 57, of Lackawanna County and the city that bears his family name, is a former lieutenant governor and GOP guv candidate, who lost to Bob Casey Sr. in 1986.

He jokes that he's running again because, "I miss living near Three Mile Island."

(I worked for Scranton during the '86 race and learned a lot; we are cordial but rarely speak.)

His theme is meeting the challenges of "the information economy." He jabs Rendell for aid to Comcast and joins in trashing gambling, calling it "as good a solution to Pennsylvania's problems as it is to a homemaker's budget."

Scranton has some problems (other than saying "ladies and gentlemen" too often): He sorta vanished after '86, and his theme sounds a lot like his theme two decades ago.

Lynn Swann, 53, the football Hall-of-Famer and ABC-TV sportscaster of Allegheny County, has never run for public office - and it shows.

While he has star power, can work a room and is an able speaker, he's the least specific of the three. He says the state needs change, and "I think I can be that agent of change."

A curiosity at this stage (dinners where he speaks sell out), Swann actually says, "It's not important that I have ideas."

Well, maybe not as a wide receiver in a huddle, but it helps as a candidate for governor.

Swann has some problems (other than too often saying "you know"): He's a novice in a tough game; and it isn't clear how far celebrity carries him.

National Republican Committeeman Bob Asher assures me, "There will be no primary," meaning whoever the party endorses in February is the nominee. He says all three candidates gave him that commitment.

A recent statewide Quinnipiac University poll shows Swann ahead among GOP voters (Swann, 25; Scranton 21; Piccola 6) but says 47 percent of Republicans are undecided.

My instinct is the staid old party opts for the familiar (and potentially self-financing) Scranton rather than playing celebrity roulette, though that would be more fun. Piccola, as mentioned, is just too experienced.

My friend and colleague Brad Bumsted of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review suggests a morphing of the three - Swann's draw, Scranton's money, Piccola's know-how - to form a perfect candidate.

I like that plan. It's not clear any one of these guys gives Eddie much of a run. *

Send e-mail to baerj@phillynews.com
--------------------------------
I watched Swann's speech on PCN yesterday and let me just say....he obviously lacks substance and has no plan whatsoever. Look at this quote! My jaw dropped when he said this: "It's not important that I have ideas." Basically the whole theme of his speech was I don't have much of a plan or any unique ideas but I agree with Piccola and Scranton on the facts. Yea, and Rendell sucks.

Swann is an empty shell and just a name. I mean sure, Casey is just a name...but at least there's some substance behind it. Rendell would absolutely destroy Swann in any debate. Piccola looks really weak at this point...he's very boring and after all he voted for all of Rendell's "tax increases"

Scranton looks like the only guy with a chance at taking out Rendell, and an outside chance at that.

Piccola is a joke and won't get the nomination. It's as simple as that. If Castor doesn't get in, it's between Scranton and Swann. Out of the two, I'd say Swann has a better shot at beating Rendell.

Also, posting an article from a writer who has demonstrated his bias in the past means nothing to me.

Did you see his speech though? I think you might change your mind if you saw it. Just horrible...no substance at all...no plan....no ideas. I sure as hell wouldn't want somebody like that representing my party against somebody as experienced as Rendell.

Well he better get a plan soon. Though I share his views on most issues, I don't want to see him turn into a joke because he doesn't have any ideas to put forth. Right now, I'm hoping Castor runs. If he doesn't, I'll be supporting Swann again. Hopefully by then he'll develop some sort of agenda.

I know danwxman loves to quote Pennsylvanians political pollsters when it comes to this race so I'm sure he'll love to hear what I heard this morning.

In the Philadelphia media market we have a program called Inside Story This morning they began discussing the Philadelphia corruption trial which led into a discussion about campaign contributions which then led into the point about the Santorum-Casey race. The commentators were stating how expensive this race will be and so on and so forth. Well one of the Republican commentators (Greg Melinson) threw in the fact that we also have a Governor's race which will be expensive, too.

Now if I was danwxman or any other partisan Dem that loves Ed Rendell I would be thinking "Well look. He's a Republican. Of course he wants to make it seem like the Governor's race will be a big contest." Well wait just a minute.

Another one of the commentators followed up on the point. He said that in 2002, Rendell spent around $43 million to win the Governor's race. The commentator then when on to how Rendell will likely receive a strong challenge from a Republican next year which would mean another expensive statewide race here in PA.

Do you know who that commentator was?

It was Terry Maddona.

PA Dems, I think it's time you guys have to admit that Rendell is not the safe bet you thought he was. Terry Maddona isn't even on your side anymore.

I don't understand why all you Democrats say Rendell is in for a solid win.  Rendell only leads Swann by 6 percent (50-44) according to Survey USA (and that was taken when his approval rating was at 53%, it is now at 48%).

When was that released? Where is it?

Reason seems to be what they want to happen. Same goes for some of the analysis the PA Republicans here come out with.
Both sides are pretty bad for that actually.

What's our analysis? I think every PA Republican here admits that it would be tough to beat Rendell. The Democrats here say it's pretty much impossible for him to lose.

The Democrats (Flyers and danwxman especially) refuse to admit Castor would cut into Rendell's margins in the SE.  At the same time, they peddle the lie that Rendell is strong out west.

Exactly. Now Terry Madonna is saying that Rendell will have a strong challenger and our PA Dems always used his analysis. I wonder what they'll say now.

Not over this. Much. Other things. Oh well. At least with both it tends only to be wild exaggerations... ;)

Survey USA, March 10th...

Castor will cut into Rendell's Montco margin from Rendell +36 to say anywhere between Rendell +22 to +28.  Bruce Castor is a popular DA, but DA's are surely treated differently when running for an executive or legilsative office.  Rendell has star power.  Castor can only cut into him ever so slightly.  As bullmoose even said, western PA turnout has to be incredible with Swann on the ticket and even then Rendell will grill him on experience.

Sorry, Flyers, but you're such a hack. Castor gets +70% at the polls in DA races. He's the last unifying figure for the Montco GOP. They love him. And you say he'd only cut into Rendell's support by about eight points? Give me a break. You also refuse to take into account how Castor would do in places like Bucks and Chester. There are a high amount of Rendell Republicans in those counties but with someone like Castor on the ballot, they pretty much disappear.

How mature.


Rendell Republicans went for Kerry and will surely go for their man again- Ed Rendell. 

You are a hack. It has nothing to do with maturity. It's the truth.

The 2002 Rendell Republicans have no reason to go for Rendell if their one of their heros is running for Governor. You really don't understand how popular Castor is amongst Montco Republicans. You really have no idea.

How am I a hack?  I am a little nervous about Rendell, but not that much.  A lot can happen between now and 2006.  Why the hate for him?  It really beats me! 

I don't hate you. It just seems like your part of the hack pack when it comes to Rendell. Would you agree with Mr. Madonna that Rendell will likely have a strong GOP challenger?

Let's reach a compromise here:

You're both hacks ;D

j/k

Phil,

Maybe Castor cuts Rendell's lead in Montco decently...

but visit Bucks...and ask who Castor is...

they'll say...Bruce who?

IIRC, Castor's a graduate of my college...and no one here knows who the hell he is...

As a Montco resident, I'd predict Rendell would win the county by 20 points over Castor and I'd honestly be surprised if Rendell won by any less than 15.

Swann for Governor! :)

He'd do much better than Fisher and unite the local Republican parties. Look at Montco. The GOP is crumbling there. There is one figure who unites them: Bruce Castor. He'd do very well out there. I guess nini hasn't been to the GOP conventions in Montco. They really do love him.

You're still talking about montco republicans...which are just a plurality in the county...

They still have the power to turn the whole race around. Rendell having to defend parts of the SE is a big danger warning for him.

And a good number also love Rendell.

If the Republicans in Montco have to choose between Rendell and Castor, it's definetley lean towards Castor. I've seen this stuff first hand at a Montco GOP convention. He's very popular.

Well I've never been to a Montco GOP Convention (or any GOP Convention for that matter), but I stand by my prediction.

There's no way that someone that popular amongst his own party would lose by the amount you predicted. Republicans are the reason why Rendell beat Fisher so badly in Montco. That doesn't even come close to happening against Castor.

Make sure you look at this analysis of why Rendell will be defeated in 2006. Now I know it's written by a Young Republican leader but there are some poll numbers included and other issues that clearly hurt Rendell.
 
http://politicspa.com/FEATURES/gsterns.htm

Why is Rendell leading the Republican challengers by 20 points then?

It might have something to do with people not knowing who they are yet. The main point is that he's not in great shape going into this election. While he'd beat Piccola or Scranton, he'd have a tough race against Castor or Swann. Get a decent candidate and add the fact that these races are referendums on the incumbent and you have Ed Rendell out of office.

In the interest of being fair and balanced, which you are clearly not, here is the other article: http://www.politicspa.com/FEATURES/gettel.htm

I'm clearly not fair and balanced because I didn't go searching for a Pro Rendell article? Good one. What do you have to say about Terry Maddona's comments that Rendell will have a tough challenge in 2006? I know you loved to quote him in the past.

They were companion articles on PoliticsPA.com. And usually you post every article about 2006 on here, but you skipped that one. I wonder why.

Also, I would like to see an actual quote from Terry Madonna. His column on PoliticsPA (http://politicspa.com/FEATURES/uncorrected.htm) says the GOP "thinks" they have a chance.

Phil actually think Rendell is going to be beat.  He would love it if Pat Toomey were Resuurected from the Dead to chalenge Ed Rendell.  He actually thinks Toomey would win I bet.

I've read both, but I noted in the the second:


This violates J. J. Second Rule:  "When a politician or activist talks about a large group of voters that, a. aren't being polled, or b. really going to turn out and swing the election, there is no such group."   

Some of what he cites is valid, but this point is not one of them.  I'm far from predicting a Rendell disaster, but it is far too early to get tickets to the Rendell inaugral ball.

I'll jump back in and add that Casey could actually supress liberal turnout, especially with pro-choice groups.  They may see no difference between the two candidates and stay home.  That hurts both Casey and Rendell.

It's certainly possible. Sorry I don't fall into the "Love Rendell and ignore every other factor" category. Seeing as Toomey isn't "dead" I don't see how he'd be resurrected. He's one of the most known faces in conservative politics and yes he could win.

Hmmmmm....now could it be because the article against Rendell was posted before? I think so. Also, I believe I've only posted one article about 2006 from PoliticsPA that was favoring the Republicans.

His column there says the GOP thinks they have a chance but his own words on a local political talk show were, "Rendell will have a strong challenge." Please explain that one.

http://www.politicspa.com/FEATURES/05historical_approval_ratings.htm

http://www.politicspa.com/temp/keystone%20Poll%20Release%20June%2005.pdf

http://www.pennlive.com/statehouse/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1118222619274100.xml&coll=1

"We have a prospect for some very interesting and competitive races," said G. Terry Madonna, the Franklin & Marshall College pollster

41% have a favorable opinion of Rendell. Two months ago he was at 48%.

38% say he deserves to be re-elected.

Poll shows Rendell with 49% to Castor's 21%.

Rendell 42%   Swann 34%


Ok, Democrats. Time to admit that Eddie might be in trouble!

Something I forgot to add....

http://www.pennlive.com/statehouse/patriotnews/index.ssf?/base/news/1118222619274100.xml&coll=1

just one-in-four in southwestern Pennsylvania thought he deserves a new term.

Rendell is done out west.

Nice to see Rendell getting dragged around over Act 72. 

I wouldn't be too thrilled; Casey proposed a comprehesive tax reform program, to approved with a constitutional amendment.  In the Spring of 1989, it was defeated two to one.  In the Fall of 1990, Casey was relected by a margin of two to one.

Yes but that was Bob Casey. Ed Rendell is no Bob Casey.

It's definitely temporary. I expect Rendell's numbers to jump back up by the next poll or two.

Actually his approval/re-elect numbers have been weak for awhile.

Keep having wet dreams about a Rendell tanking.  As even J.J eluded to, Rendell will bounce back.  He is just having some kinks with Act 72, which he will get over.  None of the options against him could do any damage.  Rendell is too popular in the Southeast for even Bruce Castor to overcome.  It seems your best chance is Lynn Swann, and I feel at this point his numbers are maxed out and he will energize the ENTIRE Southeast to vote against him to overcome Swann's gains in the Southwest.   The Central part of PA will not vote for an African American and you know what I said about everythign else. 

No, J.J. eluded to him bouncing back from Act 72, not necessarily the General election. Then you want to say I have wet dreams about this? Please! You're in love with Rendell and hardly ever admit he's vulnerable.

Your logic is so messed up. You never cease to amaze me. Rendell's re-elect numbers are at 38%. Swann has proven that he can make this a race (If you think he's maxed out at 36%, you're crazy) and Castor would make the SE a fight. When you wake up from your Democratic Fantasy Land, come back and discuss the real politics of this race.

Regardless of his re-elect and approval numbers I don't see him losing to any of the potential candidates.  None seem very impressive or strong.  There has got to be someone else.  Can Tom Ridge run again?

Actually he can but he won't. Swann would be a good challenge to Rendell and Castor is the strongest potential candidate we have to offer.

Former Governor Schweiker would beat Rendell if he ran, but he won't.

I would gladly support Schweiker if he ran. He'd make Bucks competitive and do a good job winning back some moderate Republicans. Schweiker actually goes to the same shore town as I do (Sea Isle City). A friend of mine works with Schweiker's son down there. I told my friend to tell Mr. Schweiker (the next time he went into the store) to run in 2006.  :)

However, like Jake said, he won't run. He's probably done with politics.

Castor is going to run. I just know it.

I sent an email to Mr. Castor yesterday, urging him to run for Governor. He (it doesn't seem like a very personal email so it could very well be him) responded that he was considering a run and while he said Piccola and Scranton would make good Governors (I disagree), the way to make Rendell vulnerable is to get someone who can make him weaker in SE PA and the Lehigh Valley.

The suburbs are brought up (and this is where I got excited. He seems very interested) and breaking into Eddie's base.

He even mentions a possible Lt. Gov run and seems open to the idea!

The main problem, as everyone expected, is the fact that he'd go through another Primary and that the GOP party leaders aren't exactly Bruce's best friend. If he can overcome this, I have no doubt that he'll run. He's the guy that can do it, PA Republicans. We want someone who stands by conservative ideals and can hurt Rendell where Rendell cannot be hurt if he wants to survive. Bruce Castor is the man to do it. Call him, email him...make sure he knows that we are behind him.

First, I was alluding to Rendell failure with Act 72; that was Jake's post.  It's too far out to be a real factor in 2006.

Second, Castor as Lt. Gov. could be a very big held to a GOP nominee.  It would drain votes from Rendell.

Another problem is Baker Knoll.  She's a disaster (even according to the Democrats), but she repesents the conservative wing of PA Democratic party.  She's also from Pittsburgh.  Dumping her repudiates that wing; keeping her reminds everyone that she keeps referring to the Gov. as "Edward G. Robinson."  That is one of the ticking time bombs in the Rendell campaign.

What makes Castor qualified to be Governor?

I would consider dumping Baker Knoll.  I've heard things from people who've worked for her.  She is a VERY conservative Democrat and has the worst personality. 

Nini posted a thread with a very good link.  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=23601.0

The problem is, Knoll represents a sizable contstituency within the Democratic party and she's independently nominated.  Rendell basically has to go out and say, "Vote for someone else."  He does that, and he alienates not just more of SWPA, but a lot of conservative Democrats.  Further, some of the candidates to replace her are very leftist, like Kukovitch.

He keeps her on the ticket, her gaffs and succession questions come into play.

Basically, some liberals may not turn out because Casey is on the ticket and conservatives may not turn out because Rendell pushed Knoll off the ticket.

This is one where I don't blame Rendell; I doubt if he voted for her in the 2002 primary.

He's been a powerful Montgomery county DA for the past five years.

Knoll will be out in the next election. My bet is on Rendell-Hafer.

And J.J., I can assure you Rendell didn't want Knoll in 2002. He was pushing for a Rendell-Kucovich ticket.

Or maybe not...

From http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05122/497704.stm

But Hafer insists she just "wants to make some money" with her consulting firm and won't run next year.

So what?

I guess you would say the same thing to a certain Democrat in 1986 when he ran for Governor and his only experience was being a DA. His name is Ed Rendell.

Apparently, Ed Rendell's love for the Eagles and a good cheesesteak is good enough for some boneheads in this area.

1.) Apparently Ed Rendell was elected MAYOR in between 1991 and 1999.  That little thing happened before he was governor just so you know.

2.)  Apparently, Melissa Brown's baseless rants against Section 8 were good enough for some bonheads in NE Philly to vote for her.

1) We're talking about the 1986 race he ran in, Flyers. Pay attention.

2) Basless? Hardly! And she actually had her facts straight (something you guys should try).

1.  Touche!  Executive or legislative experience does help.

2.  I'll have a migraine if we discss this now.

We discussed it enough in the PA 13 thread months ago.

GrassrootsPA is reporting how Castor would consider running as Lt. Gov. if Swann is the nominee but seems like he will not campaign for it. I guess that's the end of a possible Gov. run, too. Or is it? Is he trying to get the party leaders to beg him? It wouldn't surprise me. He keeps saying how we need a candidate to help in the SE, wants whatever allows the GOP the best chance at defeating Eddie and makes it clear that he's the guy yet says stuff like "I'm not actively seeking the office." Yeah...he wants the leadership attention pretty bad.

Also note how he says he will not actively "seek that nomination." "That nomination" is for Lt. Gov. He hasn't decided about Gov. yet...

http://www.politicspa.com/

Castor: "I Still Might Run for Governor"

Read the brief interview below

 

What is your current thinking regarding your likelihood of entering the Gubernatorial campaign?
I still think it is a possibility. It appears that Gov. Rendell is becoming increasingly vulnerable if we nominate a strong team against him. Our current contenders all seem to have what it takes to be effective governors. Without question however, we cannot let Gov. Rendell come out of the greater Southeast region with the kind of plurality he had last time. If enough of my political supporters and financial backers are convinced that a Castor candidacy gives our party an edge on Rendell's home turf, I still might decide to jump in.

What is your timeline for deciding whether you will run?
The timeline is certainly fluid. I'm just watching and listening to see what develops over the Summer. One thing I learned (of many!) is that things in politics are not always what they seem.

What steps have you taken to make a run possible?
I've taken no traditional steps to run. The work we do in the DA's Office keeps me pretty busy and has the incidental effect of keeping my name before the public in the Philly media market. I maintain my contacts around the state with my colleagues in the Pennsylvania District Attorney's Association as well as with members of the General Assembly with whom I've worked on law enforcement issues. Most of the members of my campaign team from last year remain either closely or loosely associated with me, and perhaps most importantly, I remain in close contact with my major financial backers from before. Of course, my campaign committee is still operating.

Who is encouraging your run?
"I'm trying to maintain the confidences of those who have approached me. Though it was never my desire, I recognize that some controversy seems to attach itself to my political career. Anyone associated with encouraging me to run for Governor, might find themselves caught up in that controversy which would be unfortunate should I ultimately not seek a place on the ticket next year. Speaking generally, those who are encouraging me to run are people who think that I perhaps could cut into a Rendell plurality coming out of the southeast enough to make up the difference in the rest of the state, while at the same time helping Sen. Santorum and our State Reps. in the Philadelphia region at a time when things will be tough on the GOP there with the Governor at the top of the ticket."

Lynn Swanns kickoff event, which was held this evening, is reported to have brought in close to $700,000.

being part of the other 35% in his district is hard work. :P Luckily name recognition keeps Holden in office.

I'm gonna throw in my two cents.  I really don't want Rendell back in office because he messed up our state.  We could possibly have like a big casino in our school district and our school district is big farm country.  It is sad.  I want to see Lynn Swann or someone else get in.

Swann is in and if Bruce Castor, the Montgomery County DA, doesn't run, I will be behind Swann 100%. A Castor-Swann ticket is our best bet at winning in 2006 followed by Swann-Castor or Swann-Pippy.

Where do you live?

His profile says central PA but that doesn't help all that much.

I'm trying to figure out if he lives in West Hanover Township, where Penn National racecourse is located. That area is mostly rural and I can understand the people being wary of slot machines being put in. But, when you live right off a major highway and next to a racetrack you have to expect some kind of growth.

Another great Swann quote. When asked the number one reason why Rendell shouldn't be re-elected...Swann said because "under Rendell Pennsylvania has lost jobs"

This as news broke that Pennsylvania gained jobs and the unemployment rate dropped again. Under Rendell, Pennsylvania has actually gained jobs.

BTW, when Swann was campaigning for President Bush he touted that Bush had created jobs in Pennsylvania.

This guy is just a goof. Please nominate him!

Ditto!

Ditto!

He's the one making it the closest. We might just take your suggestion!

It's up.

http://www.rendellforgovernor.com/

It's never to early to think of 2010. Check out PoliticsPA's rather interesting look at potential candidates.

http://politicspa.com/FEATURES/05longlist2010.htm

Interesting list, and I have heard of a majority of those listed. But one I could not find. Who is this Jim Panyard
charecter?

The list is nutty. John Street for Governor? There was a rumor of him running for Senate awhile back but that was the biggest political joke for awhile. Now after his scandals, his chances of running are way, way down (not like they were that high anyway) and chances of winning go from 1% to 0.5%.

Charlie Dent, Congressman from the Lehigh Valley, should be up there. He's one of the main potential candidates but they have Schwartz up there when we all know she wants Senate in 2010. It's crazy.

Anyway, Panyard is the CEO of the Pennsylvania Manufacturers Association who is apparently running this year (except no one considers him a candidate, not even a minor candidate).

Street certianly has the ego to run, but I highly doubt (and highly hope) he doesn't win.

The only way Street is going to win another office is if he makes a deal with Fattah, endorses him in 2007 and takes his House seat. There is no way he's that crazy to pursue statewide office especially after the corruption hearings. If he did run, he would have to rely just on Philly in the primary. That's it. Just the city of Philadelphia. More specifically, west Philly, North Philly and parts of Center City. He'd be wasting his time going anywhere outside of Philadelphia (even if he went to downtown Pittsburgh).

I never said Street would win, just that he would possibly run.

You said you highly hope that he doesn't win.

Rendell wins by 10-12 points against Swann? How about Castor? I can totally understand that view in a Rendell-Piccola race or even Rendell-Scranton race but I think Rendell vs. either Swann or Castor would have a difference in the single digits.

I said both but it was separated by the parentheses.  Regardless, I think we're in agreement here that Street would be terrible candidate and a terrible governor.


Rendell vs. Castor, I'd give around a ten-point win to Rendell, Castor is from the wrong part of the state and won't signifcantly cut down on Rendell's margins (we've discussed that before).

Rendell vs. Swann, really depends on Swann's candidacy, I haven't seen enough of him to determine what kind of candidate he is.  If he turns out to be articulate and fairly moderate, he would have a shot at beating Rendell, although I would think a very slight (3 points or so) Rendell win would be more probable.  If Swann turns out to really not understand the issues and try to campaign on name recognition only, I wouldn't be surprised to see Rendell win by over 20 points.

Once again, Rendell's key to victory (and very big victory in Montco) was because of the Rendell Republicans. With Castor as the nominee, there is no way Rendell wins Montco by more than ten points. The committeepeople love Castor there. They didn't care for Fisher. If Castor was the nominee, they'd be working very hard to see him victorious.

He'd also cut into Rendell's big margins in Bucks, Chester and Delaware.

Castor would probably be weaker out west but I have a feeling that Rendell is not well liked across the state. Rendell had that amazing appeal in 2002 and was able to carry some western counties (Allegheny, Greene, Beaver, etc) but it was not by much. Pair Castor with Swann or Pippy and I think he can win them over fairly easily.






I don't see how the moderation helps. Rendell vs. anybody but Castor means Rendell wins the SE easily and that is where moderation (though Castor is not actually a moderate. Weird situation there.) would be helpful.

If Swann tries to run based mainly on name ID and if he is weak on the issues, Rendell wins. A twenty point Rendell win is absurd, though.

In all these cases, a Rendell win is more likely and if Swann or Castor were to win (they're the only two candidates I really can see winning this thing) I doubt it will be by more than three points.

The Rendell Republicans are still here, and I think most of them would vote for Rendell over Castor.  Plus some of them are still mad over the attorney general flop.  Yes, Rendell's margins in the suburbs would be down but I would say:
Bucks Rendell by 21
Chester Rendell by 10
Delaware Rendell by 22
Montgomery Rendell by 16
Philadelphia

Those margins plus Castor's weakness out west would lead to Rendell's victory.



Good point on moderation, I hadn't really thought about it.  Maybe if he ran as a populist-leaning conservative that would be better, especially in some parts of the Lehigh Valley and SWPA.

For a twenty point Rendell win, I'm talking about a complete joke of a Swann campaign, as in if he makes comments like-"I have the right experience to lead Pennsylvania.

Anyway, I have to be up early tomorrow, so I'm getting off now.

As I said in the past, Castor has a lot of power over Montco Republicans. I've seen it first hand. I don't think they're really mad over the AG thing. While I believe Castor was in the wrong with some things concerning his candidacy, his supporters are very loyal.

Montco, which re-elected Castor with about 75% of the vote, would not go for Rendell by sixteen points. No more than ten could Eddie win by.




Swann vs. Rendell in the Lehigh Valley - Rendell keeps the Lehigh Valley. That area doesn't have the strong union presence it had before. If anything, it's quickly becoming an economically conservative area. I agree that it would help in SWPA.


I think Rendell would have a lot of fun with that comment and it would probably hurt Swann a great deal but Swann could hit back with stuff about Philadelphia. It doesn't do much in the experience area but focus so much on Philly and people will think (as I'm sure many think now) "He really has been all about Philly, hasn't he?" I think this race could be the east vs. west race we've been waiting for and if Swann can energize the west, he can pull this thing off.

Phil, isn't Scranton a household name in PA?

They have been a prominent PA family for generations, and William Scranton was Governor in the early 1960's.

I believe Ed Rendell will win re-election to a second term, but would the current Scranton be able to mount a reasonable campaign? 

Castor will not be beating Rendell!  I repeat Castor won't beat Rendell!  Swann won't beat Rendell!  I repeat Swann will not beat Rendell!

Scranton could have a shot if he wasn't out there. I'm not sure whether Piccola or Scranton is the bigger joke.

Stupid hack. I repeat: Stupid hack.

Rendell is still a lock, huh Flyers? Polls keep showing his approval dropping and disapproval is rising but he's still assured a win, right?

Winfield, I agree with Jake. Scranton is loony but Piccola is the bigger joke.

Scranton actually came close to winning the 1986 Gubernatorial race but if he is our nominee in 2006, he will probably lose by about six to ten points.

Piccola is.  He changed his viewpoint on abortion just to help his lost cause in the primary.

He changed his views on just about everything. Remember, he voted for most of Rendell's agenda, including the personal income tax increase, before he decided to run for Governor against him.

Piccola wasn't half bad, considering he was a fairly moderate/centrist Republican, coming from a district that isn't nearly as conservative as the rest of central PA.

After he loses the primary, his state senate seat may be vulnerable.

Ratings are out.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=811


Rendell vs. Scranton - 47% - 37%
Rendell vs. Swann - 48% - 36%
Rendell vs. Piccola - 54% - 27%

Republican Primary - Swann - 32%  Scranton - 21%  Piccola - 6%  Undecided - 36%  (Time to jump into the race, Castor!)


1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?

Approve                 47%
Disapprove              39%
DK/NA                   14 %   



This is the lowest approval rating Rendell has received since April 22, 2004

                      Apr 21   Feb 17  Sep 16  Jul 13  Apr 22
                      2005      2005    2004   2004*   2004**

Approve            49      51         52      54            46
Disapprove        34      33        30      30            33
DK/NA               18      16         17      15             22


This is also one of the highest disapproval ratings Rendell has had on record.


72% of voters believe Rendell has "a lot" or "some" of the responsibility for failing to reduce property taxes.


Finally, 46% believe that Rendell deserves re-election while 41% do not. This is also another low for Rendell since February.

Looks like Rendell's polling like Santorum only without a really good opponent. Scranton's numbers must be solely on name recognition if he's up to 37. Looks as if Swann is the best candidate unless someone bigger, Castor or Toomey!!!!, jumps into the race.

Toomey won't. He's staying with the Club until 2010 (Senate race). Email, call, do whatever you can to get Castor in this race! "Unbeatable Eddie" is beatable!

Question - Will Flyers, Smash and danwxman still insist Eddie is a lock?

()

I'm thinking Hoeffel for Lt. Governor.  Then again I wouldn't want an all Southeast ticket either so in that case I'd like to see Baker-Knoll axed in favor of Dan Onorato.

*yawn*

I'll say it again as I've said it before...Rendell is beatable with a strong challenger and that person has yet to come forward.

The campaign hasn't really even started. All Lynn Swann would have to do is a) win the primary and b) not make himself look like a complete fool.

c) really attack Rendell on property taxes. or do only people here in Berks care?

He's good on paper...African-American and from the West. But from what I've seen so far I am not impressed. The campaign hasn't started but he's already said some stupid things:

"I don't have any ideas, you don't need ideas"

"I don't have a plan"

People across the state are unsatisfied with Rendell, but they are not going to vote for a guy with no idea or plan. And that is what a lot of Republicans in this area have told me. They are pissed at Rendell but you can bet some lightweight like Swann is not going to get their vote either.

No, it's all over. If the election was in August, Rendell could lose on property tax reform/Act 72, but since it isn't for another 16 months, it won't hurt him as bad.

BTW, does anyone have either a map of districts that approved Act 72 or a list of those that did?

I don't think people in Pennsylvania care anymore. They just don't expect relief...ever. If the Republican nominee promises property tax relief, they are going to look like an idiot and nobody will take him seriously.

except for my Dad, who will praise him 24/7 until Election Day. (My Dad is a very conservative Democrat)

They don't care? Look at the poll. It's one of the top issues right now and people believe Rendell was the failure.

You really hurt yourself with this. The analysts and the Dems on this board (even some Republicans) went on and on about how strong Eddie is. The fact of the matter is that he is not. People don't like him. He'll have his cash but he's dead out west (no Lt. Gov. candidate can save him) and if the west is energized enough to remove him (I think they're realizing they fell for the superstar in 2002 but it really wasn't worth it at all), then the west can beat the east in this one.

This is the best I could find. It includes 12 districts that eventually opted out. Red is yes, yellow no.

()

Main concentrations are the Northeast, most likely because of the slots at the race track, plus suburban Pittsburgh. The Pittsburgh School District did not approve Act 72 and barely any in the Southeast did either.

I think his numbers look rather solid.  If he runs a good campaign he should be alright.  None of his possible opponents are breaking 40%.

None of his opponents are breaking 40% because the campaign hasn't even begun!

Look at his re-elect numbers in general. 46% want him while 41% are opposed. High disapprovals. Lowest approval rating in over a year.

September - 52%
February - 51%
April - 49%
July - 47%

What's next? What will we see come September or October of this year? Remember that that will be the time when his opponents will really start campaigning. What happens if he drops to 45%? Then 43%? When will he not look solid? When will the Rendell supporters realize that he's dead in an area he look rather easily in 2002?

He's in trouble.

i agree. he has to really work his butt of if he wants to stay Governor.  if he keeps voters the way he is, it could end with a tragic landslide victory for his opponent

I'm not calling for a landslide but I'd be thrilled to see one.  :)

However, I do see this as possibly Georgia 2002 in the making. Rendell will probably be the favorite throughout the race or maybe it will go tossup but if he loses, it will catch many by surprise. If Democrats in this state keep acting like they have this thing won already, they have a very good chance of seeing a Rendell concession speech.

:'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'(

As Jake said, the property tax issue and the failure of Act 72 will fade from voter's radar screens by the time the election comes around.

And if the Republican promises relief, it will be seen as a joke. How many times have Pennsylvanians been promised tax relief, without any results?

Act 72 has been out of the picture (for the most part) for about a month and he's still going down.

Ed Rendell is the most overrated elected official in Pennsylvania.

Um, no. I said now it would be enough to make him lose, by next year it won't hurt him as bad, but will still be seen as a big failure.

i have to agree Phil.

i just want to set myself apart of the crowd here. i kind of soent the whole time talking about how weak he was, although im not really a democrat, either

nick: ask and ye shall receive.

Personally, I think Rendell is a pretty formidable politician on a lot of levels. But there are enough problems in PA, including those of his doing, that he is somewhat vulnerable.

The race hinges on who wins the GOP primary to some extent, but I'm not sure who is really the best GOP option. I think there is good reason to think Castor is the best choice should he enter the race... there will be some synergy between the Senate and Governor's race, though the nature of that is difficult to predict (and I know of little research on the matter).

Swann has been taken out of context with some of his early remarks... I think the point was that he's not a politician but he is smart and has time to develop a platform. He's very raw right now but with lots of upside.

Right now, I think Rendell and Santorum will win narrowly. However, if Rendell loses that is big trouble for Casey, which is my primary interest in the race (I could kind of care less who PA elects as Governor; the Senate race is my main concern).

Not looking good with Castor. I received a reply to an email I sent last night and it looks unlikely that he'll run. I'll share with you two things from the email:

1) He points out the trouble Santorum is in. When I responded, I didn't even bother to point out that he might help Santorum in this area by being on the top of the ballot. This reason alone seems to be enough to end his thoughts of running. If a party is so concerned with one race, it's not worth it to run in another (basically his view).

2) Party leadership. They don't like him. It's that simple. He's the best candidate that we could put up but because he messed around in the '04 AG primary, they can't stomach him. He does, however, point out that things may change between now and Labor Day (I'm guessing that's when he'll make some sort of statement or if he's not running by then, it's over) but points out that someday pigs might fly.  He might run again if his chances get better. We Pennsylvania Republicans can only hope.

It will take his announcement that he won't be running for me to go against what I've been saying all along but in the meantime...

Castor-Swann - The Winning Team for Pennsylvania!

Is it possible that Castor runs as an independent/ third-party candidate because, as you said, the Republican leadership doesn't like him?

If so, how do you think he'd do?

He wouldn't do that. Unfortunately, when he was acting very foolish, he actually hinted to some of his aides (leaked to the public) that he could run for AG as a Democrat. The idea was shot down and I think he knows to never do that again. He seemed very concerned about advancing the party in his email. Could it be him being a phony? Possibly. However, I really feel he wants a future beyond being Montco DA so he wouldn't bolt.

If he did, though, I'm sure he'd be able to break into single digits in some SE counties, taking away some votes from the GOP nominee. He has a loyal following in Montco.

If the GOP was to nominate a more liberal candidate (Bill Scranton) and Castor was to run, Castor could be the Peg Luksik of '06. Castor is a voiceful conservative and very proud of it (even in liberal Montco). I could see him taking a good amount in the more conservative counties, possibly ending up with a good 12% of the statewide vote. It would also wrap up the election for Rendell. Good thing this won't happen.

I think Santorum has a better chance of holding on against Casey than I do of Swann or Castor upsetting Rendell.

I'm a betting man. I'd put Santorum's race at a push (slightly more optimistic outlook for the GOP), and give Rendell decent, though not great, odds of holding on.

I really haven't heard of much disappointment with Rendell here in the burbs too much yet...I live in Bucks and only know of Castor because he went to the same college I am attending, no one else in this county really knows or cares who he is...and Swann? Could be decent, but he's from the Pittsburgh. East-West rivalry can come into play.

That being said, we're 15 or so months from the general election, and Rendell's sub 50% reelect number is some cause for concern.

Upon hearing from a family friend, Bruce Castor is not running for Governor next year. My family friend who is related to an elected official from Montco informed me of this news just yesterday. As many may already know, Castor is now looking into a run in PA 13.

I'll admit he's more deadly to us running for governor.  Please run him in PA 13.  Schwartz will beat him!

Even is she does, it'll be a much close race than you guys would like. You'd have to take some money away from Murphy and the PA 8 Dem candidate.