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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: Progressive on June 07, 2011, 10:38:55 AM



Title: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on June 07, 2011, 10:38:55 AM
Could any of the following people pose a formidable challenge to Weiner?

Former Assemblywoman and Councilwoman Melinda Katz?
Councilwoman Karen Koslowitz?
Assembly Andrew Hevesi?

Is there a chance Weiner could face a serious primary challenge. I think Melinda Katz could do it.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: King on June 07, 2011, 02:59:09 PM
No.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: minionofmidas on June 07, 2011, 03:05:41 PM
Is there a chance Weiner could face a serious primary challenge.
Well, yes - by Gary Ackerman. Merging the two seats is pretty much the rational thing to do once it's agreed that all the nonwhite seats need to stay.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on June 07, 2011, 03:51:01 PM
R+1!


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: cinyc on June 07, 2011, 04:19:37 PM
There won't be much of a NY-09 left after redistricting, so if Democrats draw the lines properly, Weiner's going to have to face off against a sitting Democratic Congressman largely on that other Congressman's turf.  My guess is he'll retire in anticipation of running for mayor, instead.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 07, 2011, 04:22:40 PM
I think we can all agree that this is the downstate Dem seat that will likely be eliminated now. 


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: Holmes on June 07, 2011, 04:25:19 PM
Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: Verily on June 07, 2011, 04:58:55 PM
Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.

Short answer: It's dead.

Longer answer: Despite being a liberal himself, Weiner's political position in NYC has always been fairly dependent on support from relatively conservative groups like the Russians and Orthodox Jews as well as in general older whites living in outer Brooklyn and Queens. Meanwhile, his chief rival for the mayoralty, Christine Quinn, has more backing from the white liberals, partially because she represents a lot of them and is from Manhattan while Weiner is from Queens. Now, the scandal probably hurts Weiner at least somewhat among the crunchy-granola crowd in inner Brooklyn and Manhattan (the misogyny perspective), but more importantly it crushes his support among the conservative outer-borough whites. And, other than that she's a lesbian, politically Quinn is a better fit ideologically for those voters anyway. Although, with Weiner clearly out of the picture, while Quinn is temporarily the frontrunner, I'm sure someone else will enter the race to challenge her. (Bill Thompson is a huge joke and totally incompetent and could not hope to win a primary.) The election is a long time from now, obviously.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: JacobNC on June 07, 2011, 09:33:03 PM
I don't know why some on tv (O'reilly and Chris Matthews) are saying this is an extremely liberal district and Republicans don't have a chance of winning it in a special election or 2012.... it only went 55% for Obama.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: bgwah on June 07, 2011, 09:35:25 PM
I don't know why some on tv (O'reilly and Chris Matthews) are saying this is an extremely liberal district and Republicans don't have a chance of winning it in a special election or 2012.... it only went 55% for Obama.

Well it's probably not going to exist in 2012, so...


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 07, 2011, 10:03:53 PM
Obama's numbers are a bit of an underperformance too, there are a lot of older Jews and "ethnic" voters weren't too big on him. Kerry got 56%. Also it has some haredi who strongly supported McCain but mostly support Democrats on the local level.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: Progressive on June 07, 2011, 10:04:58 PM
I don't know why some on tv (O'reilly and Chris Matthews) are saying this is an extremely liberal district and Republicans don't have a chance of winning it in a special election or 2012.... it only went 55% for Obama.

I lived her for a long time in the Queens section. Because of a large elderly/socially conservative (religious) faction in some parts of NY-09, the presidency tends to be a 10 pt difference between Dem and GOP but virtually all other offices are vast-majority Dem.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: Lunar on June 07, 2011, 11:34:14 PM
Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.

Short answer: It's dead.

Longer answer: Despite being a liberal himself, Weiner's political position in NYC has always been fairly dependent on support from relatively conservative groups like the Russians and Orthodox Jews as well as in general older whites living in outer Brooklyn and Queens. Meanwhile, his chief rival for the mayoralty, Christine Quinn, has more backing from the white liberals, partially because she represents a lot of them and is from Manhattan while Weiner is from Queens. Now, the scandal probably hurts Weiner at least somewhat among the crunchy-granola crowd in inner Brooklyn and Manhattan (the misogyny perspective), but more importantly it crushes his support among the conservative outer-borough whites. And, other than that she's a lesbian, politically Quinn is a better fit ideologically for those voters anyway. Although, with Weiner clearly out of the picture, while Quinn is temporarily the frontrunner, I'm sure someone else will enter the race to challenge her. (Bill Thompson is a huge joke and totally incompetent and could not hope to win a primary.) The election is a long time from now, obviously.

I think de Blasio obviously gains the most, fwiw, as he's the other outer borough white mega-liberal in the race


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: muon2 on June 08, 2011, 06:14:23 AM
I think we can all agree that this is the downstate Dem seat that will likely be eliminated now. 

^^^

It does make the legislature's choice a lot easier politically.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: UpcomingYouthvoter on June 08, 2011, 03:21:36 PM
Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.

Short answer: It's dead.

Longer answer: Despite being a liberal himself, Weiner's political position in NYC has always been fairly dependent on support from relatively conservative groups like the Russians and Orthodox Jews as well as in general older whites living in outer Brooklyn and Queens. Meanwhile, his chief rival for the mayoralty, Christine Quinn, has more backing from the white liberals, partially because she represents a lot of them and is from Manhattan while Weiner is from Queens. Now, the scandal probably hurts Weiner at least somewhat among the crunchy-granola crowd in inner Brooklyn and Manhattan (the misogyny perspective), but more importantly it crushes his support among the conservative outer-borough whites. And, other than that she's a lesbian, politically Quinn is a better fit ideologically for those voters anyway. Although, with Weiner clearly out of the picture, while Quinn is temporarily the frontrunner, I'm sure someone else will enter the race to challenge her. (Bill Thompson is a huge joke and totally incompetent and could not hope to win a primary.) The election is a long time from now, obviously.


Why would crunchy-granola crowd hate Weiner now just because of his Twitter picture? They are not religious conservatives you know.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: cinyc on June 08, 2011, 04:07:55 PM
I think de Blasio obviously gains the most, fwiw, as he's the other outer borough white mega-liberal in the race

...and then, there's Alec Baldwin for mayor (http://www.thedaily.com/page/2011/06/08/060811-news-alec-baldwin-1-2/).  Maybe.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: Verily on June 08, 2011, 04:22:47 PM
Mmhmm, I think a better question would be whether this will hurt his mayoral run.

Short answer: It's dead.

Longer answer: Despite being a liberal himself, Weiner's political position in NYC has always been fairly dependent on support from relatively conservative groups like the Russians and Orthodox Jews as well as in general older whites living in outer Brooklyn and Queens. Meanwhile, his chief rival for the mayoralty, Christine Quinn, has more backing from the white liberals, partially because she represents a lot of them and is from Manhattan while Weiner is from Queens. Now, the scandal probably hurts Weiner at least somewhat among the crunchy-granola crowd in inner Brooklyn and Manhattan (the misogyny perspective), but more importantly it crushes his support among the conservative outer-borough whites. And, other than that she's a lesbian, politically Quinn is a better fit ideologically for those voters anyway. Although, with Weiner clearly out of the picture, while Quinn is temporarily the frontrunner, I'm sure someone else will enter the race to challenge her. (Bill Thompson is a huge joke and totally incompetent and could not hope to win a primary.) The election is a long time from now, obviously.


Why would crunchy-granola crowd hate Weiner now just because of his Twitter picture? They are not religious conservatives you know.


Middle-aged feminists are perhaps the group most disgusted by cheating in the country, much more so than religious conservatives. You are discounting the 40-year-old white liberal women who make up a very large percentage of the vote in places like Park Slope and the Upper West Side.

Obviously it's a fairly small segment of the population, but it's a group among whom he probably would have done reasonably well before but would not do well among now.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: King on June 08, 2011, 05:03:15 PM
If Weiner does not return to the House, he should join CNN for the show WeinerSpitzer.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 08, 2011, 05:11:58 PM
If Weiner does not return to the House, he should join CNN for the show WeinerSpitzer.

()


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: Progressive on June 16, 2011, 11:57:23 AM
So yeah....


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 16, 2011, 12:13:58 PM
Has there been any other state to hold so many special elections in such short time?


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on June 16, 2011, 12:35:43 PM
California has had eight since 2005: CA-05, 48, 50, 37, 12, 32, 10, and the pending 36.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: CatoMinor on June 16, 2011, 03:34:04 PM
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/anthony-weiner-resigns-audience-cheers-13858250

Its time to change the title of this thread to NY-09 Special Election Thread


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: Meeker on June 16, 2011, 04:04:58 PM
People actually think this could be competitive? The Republicans have no chance at winning this seat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPa8teSoLwg

Replace "Jane Corwin" with whoever the Republican nominee is. Election is over.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: CatoMinor on June 16, 2011, 04:14:18 PM
People actually think this could be competitive? The Republicans have no chance at winning this seat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPa8teSoLwg

Replace "Jane Corwin" with whoever the Republican nominee is. Election is over.

lol, I am sure this seat will remain Democratic, albeit more competitive than under normal circumstances, but you gotta admit its funny how you guys are essentially using the GOP tactics of 2009 with healthcare.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: Meeker on June 16, 2011, 04:20:40 PM
People actually think this could be competitive? The Republicans have no chance at winning this seat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPa8teSoLwg

Replace "Jane Corwin" with whoever the Republican nominee is. Election is over.

lol, I am sure this seat will remain Democratic, albeit more competitive than under normal circumstances, but you gotta admit its funny how you guys are essentially using the GOP tactics of 2009 with healthcare.

I don't see any connection in tactics. Republicans made up nonsense that appeared no where in the final healthcare bill (government is taking control, there are death panels, etc.) while all the Democrats are doing is running ads that detail - using the wording of respected newspapers -  the exact provisions of the bill the Republicans have already voted to support.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: nclib on June 16, 2011, 04:43:17 PM
Interesting tidbit about NY-9:

53.8% born in state
4.0% born in a different state
2.1% born abroad to American parents
40.1% foreign born

The bolded must be among the lowest in the country.

I agree that Dems should have no problem winning the special election. Foreign policy and anti-Obama sentiment was the only reason it was even that close.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: cinyc on June 16, 2011, 05:43:21 PM
Interesting tidbit about NY-9:

53.8% born in state
4.0% born in a different state
2.1% born abroad to American parents
40.1% foreign born

The bolded must be among the lowest in the country.

It might be the lowest in the country.  The only districts I've found that are even close are elsewhere in New York.

Quote
I agree that Dems should have no problem winning the special election. Foreign policy and anti-Obama sentiment was the only reason it was even that close.

The anti-Obama sentiment is still there, for NY-09 purposes, especially given his recent anti-Israel turn in foreign policy.

But that's not the issue.  Special elections are usually won on machine strength.  The Democrats have it in NY-09.  Republicans don't.  So I doubt the special election will be close, as long as it isn't held on election day in November.  Even if it is, my guess is the Republican candidate will do better than they have against Weiner in the recent past, but still lose by low double digits.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: rbt48 on June 16, 2011, 09:55:07 PM
Interesting tidbit about NY-9:

53.8% born in state
4.0% born in a different state
2.1% born abroad to American parents
40.1% foreign born

The bolded must be among the lowest in the country.

I'd guess Hal Rogers district in KY, or TN-1 have similarly low percentages born in a different state.

Say, are most of the foreign born in NY-9 Asians?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on June 16, 2011, 10:37:00 PM
Interesting tidbit about NY-9:

53.8% born in state
4.0% born in a different state
2.1% born abroad to American parents
40.1% foreign born

The bolded must be among the lowest in the country.

I'd guess Hal Rogers district in KY, or TN-1 have similarly low percentages born in a different state.

Say, are most of the foreign born in NY-9 Asians?

A big percentage, but many from Russia, and former Soviet areas like Uzbekistan; Latin America, China, Korea, India, Pakistan, Guyana, Israel, etc


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on June 16, 2011, 10:55:38 PM
Interesting tidbit about NY-9:

53.8% born in state
4.0% born in a different state
2.1% born abroad to American parents
40.1% foreign born

The bolded must be among the lowest in the country.

I'd guess Hal Rogers district in KY, or TN-1 have similarly low percentages born in a different state.

Nope.  According to the 2000 Census Data, NY-09 has the lowest percentage of people born in another US state at 4.03%, followed by NY-05 (4.71%), NY-13 (5.39%), NY-07 (5.60%), NY-03 (5.85%), NY-16 (6.57%), NY-12 (6.92%) and NY-04 (7.15%).

Notice a pattern - well, excluding the Puerto Rico At Large Resident Commissioner (6.13%), 9 of the top 10 are in New York.  CA-31 (7.30%) breaks the string at 9th.  NY-02 (7.34%) follows in 10th place.   IL-04 (8.01%) is 11th, excluding PR.

TN-01 is 31.66% non-Tennessee US born - good for 312th or so out of 437 (435 + PR + DC); Hal Rogers' KY-05 is 17.81% non-Kentucky US born - 96th or so out of 437.

For these purposes, Puerto Rico is not considered another state, which partially explains why some of the heavily Puerto Rican Hispanic NYC and Chicago Hispanic districts are included in the top 10.

The 10 districts with the most out-of-state residents?  As one would expect, 6 of them are in Florida, 2 in Arizona and 2 in Nevada.  FL-14 (68.34%) had the highest percentage of residents born in another state, followed by NV-03 (65.96%) and FL-13 (65.68%).  That's SW Florida and suburban Las Vegas.

Quote
Say, are most of the foreign born in NY-9 Asians?

As of 2000, no.  148,738 of the 262,593 foreign-born residents (56.6%) classified themselves as White alone; 73,217 classified themselves as Asian alone (27.9%).   NY-09 is geographically diverse and heavily Gerrymandered.   Among others, Sheepshead Bay has a large Russian and Eastern European Jewish population.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 16, 2011, 11:11:36 PM
This is basically the textbook definition of a fool's gold seat. It's designed to be very polarized. And do the GOP hold any 56% Kerry seats even after 2010? I can't think of any.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: freepcrusher on June 16, 2011, 11:57:31 PM
this seat is going the wrong way and could eventually go republican. Obama did 10 points worse than Al Gore in 2000 in this district.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on June 17, 2011, 12:19:45 AM
this seat is going the wrong way and could eventually go republican. Obama did 10 points worse than Al Gore in 2000 in this district.
Lieberman being on the ticket played a big part in that.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Dgov on June 17, 2011, 03:59:59 AM
This is basically the textbook definition of a fool's gold seat. It's designed to be very polarized. And do the GOP hold any 56% Kerry seats even after 2010? I can't think of any.

Well, they do hold a handful of 55% Obama districts, which is the problem here.  This is one of the few districts Obama did worse than Kerry in.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on June 17, 2011, 04:15:24 AM
Worst danger for Dems is if Crowley goes with a weak Dem nominee to bolster himself in redistricting


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: Brittain33 on June 17, 2011, 06:08:01 AM
but you gotta admit its funny how you guys are essentially using the GOP tactics of 2009 with healthcare.

I thought it was rather shocking--well beyond funny--that Republicans used those tactics so successfully in 2010 and then thought it was a good idea to pass a bill with no chance of passage that opened them up to the same attacks thrown back at them.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on June 17, 2011, 09:40:34 AM
Well, they do hold a handful of 55% Obama districts, which is the problem here.  This is one of the few districts Obama did worse than Kerry in.

It's still 56% Kerry, though and Obama's under-performance doesn't undercut that fact, there's very Democratic presence here. 2008 numbers are lopsided, 2004 ones are much more accurate. Critz was supposed to lose PA-12 because Obama did worse than Kerry, but that didn't pan out at all.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 17, 2011, 10:39:50 AM
This is basically the textbook definition of a fool's gold seat. It's designed to be very polarized. And do the GOP hold any 56% Kerry seats even after 2010? I can't think of any.

Well, they do hold a handful of 55% Obama districts, which is the problem here.  This is one of the few districts Obama did worse than Kerry in.

Well I doubt the Democratic nominee will be black, so that's pretty moot. Also they hold a grand total of one D+5 seat (as this is), and that's a seat in Illinois so the PVI is no doubt inflated unlike how it's deflated here (IL-10).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on June 21, 2011, 11:42:52 PM
The election is going to be on September 13th which is conveniently the day of the Nevada special election as well.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on June 22, 2011, 01:42:15 AM
The election is going to be on September 13th which is conveniently the day of the Nevada special election as well.

And the New York primary elections, which makes sense - to save money.

It also means that the parties will pick the candidates.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on June 22, 2011, 10:55:28 PM
The election is going to be on September 13th which is conveniently the day of the Nevada special election as well.

And the New York primary elections, which makes sense - to save money.

It also means that the parties will pick the candidates.

..which helps the Republicans, funnily enough. Since the Republicans actually want to put up the strongest candidate possible but the Democrats are trying to thread the needle of putting up someone strong, but not strong enough to be able to challenge Ackerman or Crowley in a primary post-redistricting


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 22, 2011, 11:05:14 PM
Why not just get someone who's only interested in being a seat warmer who'll then have a foot in the door to a high-paying lobbyist position after a year and a half?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Dgov on June 23, 2011, 12:53:43 AM
Why not just get someone who's only interested in being a seat warmer who'll then have a foot in the door to a high-paying lobbyist position after a year and a half?

Such people are usually not good candidates.

EDIT:  Grammar fail


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on June 23, 2011, 12:59:43 AM
Why not just get someone who's only interested in being a seat warmer who'll then have a foot in the door to a high-paying lobbyist position after a year and a half?

Isn't there some period after leaving Congress during which you have to pretend that you're not a lobbyist?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on June 23, 2011, 09:19:38 AM
The election is going to be on September 13th which is conveniently the day of the Nevada special election as well.

And the New York primary elections, which makes sense - to save money.

It also means that the parties will pick the candidates.

..which helps the Republicans, funnily enough. Since the Republicans actually want to put up the strongest candidate possible but the Democrats are trying to thread the needle of putting up someone strong, but not strong enough to be able to challenge Ackerman or Crowley in a primary post-redistricting

Maybe.  Maybe not.  I don't think the 2011 primaries will be much to write home about in terms of turnout.  2011 is an off-off year for New York City elections.  I don't even think NYC city council seats are up, just some judges, county committee seats and the like.  But if they're holding a primary election that day anyway, they might as well hold a special election at the same time.  The workers will be there.

I still say NY-09 is fools' gold for Republicans.  The blue-collar types who live in parts of the district were more attracted to Bush in 2004 because of his national security credibility and McCain because he wasn't Obama.  That doesn't necessarily translate to a Congressional race, especially one with low turnout where machine politics matters.  The Democrats have the real machine there.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on June 26, 2011, 12:22:59 AM
It all depends on the Democratic candidate. If Crowley picks someone palatable to the district, as is quite likely (but he has mixed goals), it'd be an uphill climb for the GOP.  But we'll have to see the Democrat first.

Bloomberg won this district with 70% of the vote, it's not complete fool's gold, it's just a complex situation where the Democrats are favored.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: patrick1 on June 26, 2011, 12:54:52 AM

I still say NY-09 is fools' gold for Republicans.  The blue-collar types who live in parts of the district were more attracted to Bush in 2004 because of his national security credibility and McCain because he wasn't Obama.  That doesn't necessarily translate to a Congressional race, especially one with low turnout where machine politics matters.  The Democrats have the real machine there.

Agreed.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 01, 2011, 08:36:21 PM
Former Rep. Liz Holtzman has become a top contender for the Democratic nomination. (http://www.cityhallnews.com/2011/07/liz-holtzman-emerges-as-a-top-contender-for-weiner-seat/)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on July 01, 2011, 08:43:03 PM
Perfect candidate.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 01, 2011, 09:53:24 PM

WRONG!

I'm sorry to be blunt, but she did not perform well in NY-9 in her past elections (two decades ago), has made tons of foreign policy statements guaranteed to lose Orthodox voters, and doesn't live anywhere near the district now.

It's hard to imagine a worse choice Crowley could realistically make, electorally speaking.  He could pick like six or eight other candidates who would have a better chance at winning the seat but still wouldn't primary a sitting Congressional incumbent.

There's an Orthodox Jewish Assemblyman right there in the district (who voted for gay marriage but can still relate better to the Orthodox voters who I think occupy the majority of the swing voters in the district than any Republican), why not just go with him instead of some kind of big named candidate guaranteed to be controversial?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on July 02, 2011, 12:47:00 AM
I think the frontrunner for this is Assemblyman Rory Lancman and former Councilwoman Melinda Katz as the runner up.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on July 02, 2011, 01:00:15 AM

WRONG!

I'm sorry to be blunt, but she did not perform well in NY-9 in her past elections (two decades ago), has made tons of foreign policy statements guaranteed to lose Orthodox voters, and doesn't live anywhere near the district now.

It's hard to imagine a worse choice Crowley could realistically make, electorally speaking.  He could pick like six or eight other candidates who would have a better chance at winning the seat but still wouldn't primary a sitting Congressional incumbent.

There's an Orthodox Jewish Assemblyman right there in the district (who voted for gay marriage but can still relate better to the Orthodox voters who I think occupy the majority of the swing voters in the district than any Republican), why not just go with him instead of some kind of big named candidate guaranteed to be controversial?

ok fine lunar you know more about new york politics than me no need to rub it in jerk

>:(


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on July 02, 2011, 01:16:42 AM
Ah, the woman who beat Emanuel Celler. So she's still around.

Would be a good candidate in the sense that she wouldn't mind being a seatwarmer.

I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama. As Johnny has noted, the GOP need someone who can run down the margins in Queens, and who do they have?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 02, 2011, 05:52:58 AM
Why not just run Manny Celler? If he won his physical remains would still be more intelligent than a majority of the current New York delegation.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 02, 2011, 06:33:28 AM
How about Ed Koch if we're just throwing around silly names


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 02, 2011, 06:35:46 AM
I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

Orthodox voters break 80-20 or 90-10 instead of 55-45, so they can be the most influential swing voters sometimes


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 02, 2011, 06:36:41 AM
I think the frontrunner for this is Assemblyman Rory Lancman and former Councilwoman Melinda Katz as the runner up.

Yes, those two would be in my top three, I'd toss in David Weprin too


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 02, 2011, 06:39:56 AM
How about Ed Koch if we're just throwing around silly names

Why ever not? He'd win without much bother (presumably) and then there would be no issue regarding redistricting as I'm sure that the legislature would regard carving his district up as more a pleasure than a duty.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 02, 2011, 06:44:41 AM
Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

It was held by 21pts in a dire year, something that normally indicates 'safe' - especially as Tony Penis never showed much sign of having a genuine personal vote.

Quote
Orthodox voters break 80-20 or 90-10 instead of 55-45, so they can be the most influential swing voters sometimes

Think you need to be more specific, oh Brooklyn expert (sorry; easy target). Not all Orthodox are Hasidism even if all Hasidism are Orthodox. Its the Hasids that have such wacky voting patterns, wherever they exist.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 02, 2011, 07:26:48 AM
I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

So all the Republicans need to do is nominate a Jewish billionaire who can spend as much as he wants and hope the Democrats nominate an underfunded black guy?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 02, 2011, 07:34:20 AM
I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

So all the Republicans need to do is nominate a Jewish billionaire who can spend as much as he wants and hope the Democrats nominate an underfunded black guy?

That's what they would need to do to win 70% in the district.  I assume that they'd be just as happy with 50.1% in the special election.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 02, 2011, 07:38:13 AM
Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

It was held by 21pts in a dire year, something that normally indicates 'safe' - especially as Tony Penis never showed much sign of having a genuine personal vote.

Quote
Orthodox voters break 80-20 or 90-10 instead of 55-45, so they can be the most influential swing voters sometimes

Think you need to be more specific, oh Brooklyn expert (sorry; easy target). Not all Orthodox are Hasidism even if all Hasidism are Orthodox. Its the Hasids that have such wacky voting patterns, wherever they exist.

Good points both.  On the first point, I think the Democrats will win, but that's partially because I expect Crowley to put up a solid candidate.

On the second, whoops, but Orthos are still a growing and swing constituency trending away from the Dems (along with the Russian Jews):
http://www.r8ny.com/blog/gatemouth/wake_up_and_spell_the_kugel.html

(edit if that link doesn't work, try the cache here (http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:mGc1e2_mTuEJ:www.r8ny.com/blog/gatemouth/wake_up_and_spell_the_kugel.html+wake+up+and+smell+the+kugel&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&source=www.google.com))


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Verily on July 02, 2011, 09:53:44 AM
I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

Orthodox voters break 80-20 or 90-10 instead of 55-45, so they can be the most influential swing voters sometimes

Why are we so obsessed with the Orthodox? There are virtually no Orthodox in this seat. The Orthodox in Boro Park live west of McDonald Ave, which is the western edge of this district. There's the small community in Kew Gardens Hills, but they're no more than a couple thousand votes.

The Republicans in this seat are Italians and Irish in places like Howard Beach, Middle Village and Marine Park, and Russians in Brighton Beach. Losing sight of that is a sure way for both the Democrats and the Republicans to screw up. Bloomberg did well in this seat because he dominated the South Asian, Filipino and Reform Jewish votes and did well with Hispanics, groups Obama won and Democrats typically win.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 02, 2011, 10:16:02 AM
I think you're wrong, there are Orthodox voters in Queens, Midwood, and they are expanding and growing in areas like Marine Park.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 02, 2011, 10:27:40 AM
More specifically: Sheepshead Bay, Forest Hills, Fresh Meadows, Kew Gardens, Rego Park all have Orthodox communities as well, and most of their Wikipedia pages even confirm this.

edit: Don't forget that the Soviet Jewish population in Sheepshead Bay, Brighton Beach, and Queens is turning away from the Democratic Party as well.

It's probably going to stay in Democratic hands, but that's because the Democrats will nominate a strong candidate


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on July 02, 2011, 11:54:49 AM
There's also a significant Asian and Hispanic population especially in Kew Gardens and Rego Park


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 02, 2011, 02:12:36 PM
There's also a significant Asian and Hispanic population especially in Kew Gardens and Rego Park

Indeed, but they'll have reduced turnout for a special election relative to the district's Jewish voters, and those that do tirn out wont be as swingy in their voting characteristics


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on July 02, 2011, 03:34:17 PM
There's also a significant Asian and Hispanic population especially in Kew Gardens and Rego Park

Indeed, but they'll have reduced turnout for a special election relative to the district's Jewish voters, and those that do tirn out wont be as swingy in their voting characteristics

Agreed; I hope that Joe Crowley chooses someone with mass appeal, that's why I think Melinda Katz i the best choice. I remember when she ran for Comptroller she got endorsed by Diaz Jr and a slew of others. Plus when I lived in the district she was my councilwoman so I'm biased :D


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on July 03, 2011, 02:06:28 PM
I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

Orthodox voters break 80-20 or 90-10 instead of 55-45, so they can be the most influential swing voters sometimes

That's like saying every seat in Oklahoma is potentially competitive because Brad Henry won them all in 2006.

The point about Orthodox is exactly what I was saying. McCain already won them in the 90s, and Obama still carried the seat by 13 points despite being disliked by plenty of other voters in the district.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 03, 2011, 04:43:07 PM
I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

Orthodox voters break 80-20 or 90-10 instead of 55-45, so they can be the most influential swing voters sometimes

That's like saying every seat in Oklahoma is potentially competitive because Brad Henry won them all in 2006.

No it's not like saying that at all -- it's more like arguing that the seat Brad Henry did the best in is potentially competitive.  This was Bloomberg's best district in the city.

The point about Orthodox is exactly what I was saying. McCain already won them in the 90s, and Obama still carried the seat by 13 points despite being disliked by plenty of other voters in the district.

Yup, and the Democrats are favored, it's a Democratic-leaning district and Republicans only have of handful of districts that Democratic throughout the country.

I'm just saying the Democrats can't treat this seat like it's a joke and nominate whomever.  I don't expect them to.  Hopefully that part is understood, so no need to make a bunch of "Lunar was wrong!" posts when the D's win this one ;)

Special elections CAN be funky and surprising though, if recent history is any indication


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 04, 2011, 08:43:34 AM
I suppose if Bloomberg himself ran for the Republicans then the district might be in danger. As it is though... sorry to be like a stuck record, but the district was held by an incumbent who never seemed to be notably personally popular by over 20pts in a sh!t year for his party. The circumstances can't be helpful, but in order to lose the seat the Democrats would have to fyck up candidate selection big time. Its a safe seat.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on July 04, 2011, 11:25:28 AM
Former Rep. Liz Holtzman has become a top contender for the Democratic nomination. (http://www.cityhallnews.com/2011/07/liz-holtzman-emerges-as-a-top-contender-for-weiner-seat/)

The one who lost 1980 Senate election with 1% to D'Amato?

Well, she'd probably win back then without Javits remaining in the race as Liberal nominee.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 05, 2011, 12:13:32 AM
I suppose if Bloomberg himself ran for the Republicans then the district might be in danger. As it is though...

I think it's a misunderstanding to assume that Bloomberg did well here because he's Bloomberg.  Bloomberg did well in the Upper West Side because he's Bloomberg, but not necessarily here.  

I think it has more to do with the Democrat, which is my entire point: the Democrats can't just nominate anybody here and expect to win by default.

The Democrats will likely select a candidate who will be at a huge advantage in the special election, but if they select someone like Holtzman, this seat will be in real danger.  I'd be surprised if they actually selected someone outside of the district like that though, Crowley is trying to make his machine NOT look out of order while the national spotlight is on it.

But, of course, sometimes even the most solidly favored special elections go awry (MA-Sen, NY-26, etcetc).  This is a weird district though since at its core it's like 20% Republican.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 05, 2011, 12:19:20 AM
Let me put my prediction in more simple terms, since I'm bobbing back and forth a bit: I expect the Democratic nominee to have ties or appeal to the Jewish social services organizations in the area like Agudah Israel


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on July 05, 2011, 02:21:43 AM
As long as the Democrats don't nominate a black (are there any such potential candidates in that district anyway?) they should be fine.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: RBH on July 05, 2011, 03:00:26 AM
As long as the Democrats don't nominate a black (are there any such potential candidates in that district anyway?) they should be fine.

there goes Whoopi Goldberg's chances of winning the NY9 nomination?

(Lisa Bonet works as a substitute if you want an actually Jewish)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 05, 2011, 07:48:11 AM
I think it's a misunderstanding to assume that Bloomberg did well here because he's Bloomberg.  Bloomberg did well in the Upper West Side because he's Bloomberg, but not necessarily here.

Bloomberg being Bloomberg was a big part of his appeal everywhere. Because an important part of Bloomberg being Bloomberg is Bloomberg's ability to essentially buy elections.

Quote
I think it has more to do with the Democrat,

Obviously that was a big factor as well. When combined with Bloomberg. And the general framework of municipal politics in New York for the past two decades. This election will be for Congress, which is different.

Quote
which is my entire point: the Democrats can't just nominate anybody here and expect to win by default.

How likely are they to nominate a (black) municipal hack from Bedford-Stuyvesant?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 05, 2011, 05:23:34 PM
Eric Ulrich has taken himself out of consideration for the Republican nomination. (http://www.ny1.com/content/top_stories/142293/ny1-exclusive--councilman-eric-ulrich-rules-out-run-in-congressional-special-election) Sorry, krazen, your dreams of picking up this seat are slipping through your fingers.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 05, 2011, 11:28:36 PM
Bob Turner's going to be the GOP nominee, I guarantee it.

Okay, this race might not be competitive after all.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on July 06, 2011, 12:08:33 AM
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2010/10/bob-turner-poll-says-bob-turne.html

lulz

Bob Turner's going to be the GOP nominee, I guarantee it.

Okay, this race might not be competitive after all.

There was never any real reason to expect it to be. How the hell are the Republicans going to take this seat after losing NY-26? That'd be like the Democratic nominee winning Georgia but losing Michigan.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 07, 2011, 08:34:31 AM
The Republican field has narrowed to four options (http://www.cityhallnews.com/2011/07/after-ulrich-opts-out-queens-gop-field-for-ny-9-narrows-to-four/):

Quote
One Republican candidate that has drawn little media notice, but dazzled the Queens GOP screening committee, is Juan Reyes, an attorney and resident of Forest Hills with the ability to raise money through his deep connections in Washington, D.C.

The three other top Republican contenders are all Irish, while Reyes is Hispanic and could potentially bring out that vote, said one Republican source.

“There’s some concern about the other candidates not being able to appeal to major ethnic groups,” the source said.

Bob Turner, the 2010 Republican candidate who garnered more than 40 percent of the vote running against Weiner, remains a strong contender for the nod. He fostered a lot of loyalty within Republican and Conservative circles for running in 2010 and can self-fund his race. But there are questions about whether Turner would again be willing to dump $200,000 of his own money into the contest again, and whether he could handle the rigors of campaigning and fundraising for an election that is only two months away.

The others on the short-list include Andy Sullivan, a construction worker and Ground Zero mosque opponent and Tim Cochrane, a self-made Wall Street executive and former Marine


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 07, 2011, 09:36:38 AM
The Conservative Party is likely to back Bob Turner. (http://www.politickerny.com/2011/07/06/conservative-party-gives-bob-turner-nod-for-weiners-old-seat/)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 07, 2011, 10:47:27 AM
David Weprin is the Democratic nominee.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 07, 2011, 11:09:22 AM
He has a fantastic mustache:

()


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on July 07, 2011, 11:10:39 AM
David Weprin is the Democratic nominee.

Your anti-Holtzman campaign worked! ;)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Verily on July 07, 2011, 11:11:43 AM
Weird. His Assembly district and former City Council district only barely overlap with the CD. (He's from Jamaica Estates.) I guess that's good for Crowley, though; sets up a primary fight between Weprin and Ackerman in 2012.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 07, 2011, 12:44:38 PM
()()

Weprin's 2010 opponent opposed hate crime legislation, yielding this negative attack mailer.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 07, 2011, 02:32:04 PM
Yeesh. Godwin's Law much?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on July 07, 2011, 02:33:49 PM
Weprin's opponent was Henry Waxman?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on July 07, 2011, 03:21:08 PM

LOL


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 07, 2011, 09:45:15 PM
David Weprin is the Democratic nominee.

Your anti-Holtzman campaign worked! ;)

Actually, it probably had an effect. Glad someone noticed! ;)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on July 08, 2011, 12:33:37 AM
David Weprin is the Democratic nominee.

Your anti-Holtzman campaign worked! ;)

Actually, it probably had an effect. Glad someone noticed! ;)

You've become a real powerhouse of New York politics. ;)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: RBH on July 08, 2011, 05:50:27 PM
Bob Turner is the official Republican nominee. Time to roll


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on July 10, 2011, 11:45:13 AM
The Independence Party is backing Weprin (http://manhattan.ny1.com/content/news_beats/politics/142604/sources--independence-party-backs-weprin-in-special-house-race).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Badger on July 11, 2011, 01:03:01 PM
So, NYC gurus, what does Weprin get from the party for giving up his Assembly seat to be an interim congressman until after redistricting next year?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 11, 2011, 10:57:17 PM
So, NYC gurus, what does Weprin get from the party for giving up his Assembly seat to be an interim congressman until after redistricting next year?

He ran for Comptroller in 2009 before going to the Assembly in 2010. Word on the street is that John Liu is running for Mayor, which would open up the Comptroller's slot in 2013 again


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 11, 2011, 11:12:20 PM
Also, please keep in mind how much the Assembly sucks -- we've had five members leave elected office just this year alone, and that's not even counting those attempting to leave for higher office like Jane Corwin (failed) or Hakeem Jeffries (pending).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 12, 2011, 11:16:41 PM
what do you guys think of this race? Honestly curious from an outside perspective -- there's been recent arguments behind and not-so-behind the scenes that the progressive community is failing to actually show even a remote interest here, even though the district is less Democratic than Hochul's district is Republican


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on July 12, 2011, 11:20:43 PM
what do you guys think of this race? Honestly curious from an outside perspective -- there's been recent arguments behind and not-so-behind the scenes that the progressive community is failing to actually show even a remote interest here, even though the district is less Democratic than Hochul's district is Republican

As a former constituent of NY09, I think there were better/stronger voices and choices in the community including those who weren't currently elected to public office. Weprin has also said he won't run for re-election for Congress if elected. Bob Turner won't win. But for the seat was once Schumer's, Geraldine Ferraro's, and Anthony Weiner's--there could've been a better pick, for sure.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 13, 2011, 12:12:32 AM
what do you guys think of this race? Honestly curious from an outside perspective -- there's been recent arguments behind and not-so-behind the scenes that the progressive community is failing to actually show even a remote interest here, even though the district is less Democratic than Hochul's district is Republican

As a former constituent of NY09, I think there were better/stronger voices and choices in the community including those who weren't currently elected to public office. Weprin has also said he won't run for re-election for Congress if elected. Bob Turner won't win. But for the seat was once Schumer's, Geraldine Ferraro's, and Anthony Weiner's--there could've been a better pick, for sure.

I mean, the seat isn't quite what it once was. Anthony Weiner lost his own former Brooklyn City Council District in 2010 when he ran for reelection.  Weiner almost even lost Brooklyn altogether against a candidate who only won 39% overall, so the district's clearly changed from what Weiner and Schumer held when they first got elected to the seat, and Ferraro's district is obviously different and contained no Brooklyn parts, if I recall correctly.

Weprin is more liberal than Anthony Weiner was, in some ways (he attacked his Assembly opponent in 2010 for flip flopping on gay marriage and cited his own Orthodox Jewish beliefs when backing gay marriage in 2011), but he's not going to generate YouTube clips. But Weiner was the frontrunner for the NYC Mayor's office, that's an awfully high bar to set.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 13, 2011, 12:17:00 AM
Also: Who were the better choices? 

Melinda Katz is tied to the most controversial aspects of the Queens machine,  Eric Gioia didn't really represent much of the district (if any), and a Holtzman selection would have done more to help Bob Turner win than God himself intervening.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: MaxQue on July 13, 2011, 12:36:42 AM
Eric Gioia didn't really represent much of the district (if any)

I checked on maps and Gioia district come close of the border of NY-9 but doesn't enter it.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: RBH on July 13, 2011, 10:05:15 PM
I find the Ed Koch maneuvering amusing. Is he lonely? He's moving from "Turner has to do this and this" to "I could endorse him anyways" after Turner does nothing to move closer to Koch


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on July 14, 2011, 12:20:28 AM
I find the Ed Koch maneuvering amusing. Is he lonely?

Koch has a long memory, let's just say that. Some have suggested that his opposition to Weprin might be based off of that. Saul Weprin (David Weprin's father) was no friend, and was almost the only outer borough Jew to endorse Cuomo over Koch in the governor's race


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on July 14, 2011, 12:15:50 PM
Yes, I agree with Lunar on that regard. I know some people who were asked if they wanted to come in for interviews. They includes the runner-up for the 2009 city council primary in this district, to an Orthodox business-owner. I think that they could've won this seat with a better pick. Bob Turner won't win. I promise.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on August 18, 2011, 05:56:00 PM
Republican City Councilman Peter Koo backs Weprin. (http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2011/08/gops-peter-koo-backs-david-weprin-in-ny-9)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on August 20, 2011, 08:58:18 PM
Guys, this has become a serious race. Even partisan Democrats I've talked to close to the Weprin campaign think that this could easily end up within 5%

I'd lean towards slightly above that for Weprin's final margin, but STILL, this election is 20something days away and deserves some love


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on August 20, 2011, 10:14:14 PM
Guys, this has become a serious race. Even partisan Democrats I've talked to close to the Weprin campaign think that this could easily end up within 5%.

Oy. What do they think the turnout is going to be? Why would the Dem be doing so poorly--is it because Weprin isn't taking the race seriously, as a placeholder, or because of macro issues?

This district won't exist after 2012 anyway and one additional Republican would be an embarrassment, but not actually affect the outcome of votes in Congress. Of course the PR value would be poor but does that really matter that much at this point in time, especially given the bizarre circumstances?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on August 20, 2011, 10:42:37 PM
Oy. What do they think the turnout is going to be? Why would the Dem be doing so poorly--is it because Weprin isn't taking the race seriously, as a placeholder, or because of macro issues?

I think it has more to do with Turner running a professional campaign and disapproval of Obama than any flaws on Weprin's part


This district won't exist after 2012 anyway and one additional Republican would be an embarrassment, but not actually affect the outcome of votes in Congress. Of course the PR value would be poor but does that really matter that much at this point in time, especially given the bizarre circumstances?

You may be assuming too much -- if Turner wins, it will have an impact. The conventional wisdom is that there will be a deal to eliminate one Democratic district and one Republican one. If Turner wins and the district is eliminated, then a Democratic district will probably be eliminated Upstate instead of a Republican one.

And if Turner wins, the district's future is far more in doubt in general.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on August 20, 2011, 10:44:44 PM
Kathy Hochul's district is R+6, this district is D+5, and that doesn't even represent the trendlines which had Obama improving compared to Kerry in NY-26 but declining in NY-9


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on August 20, 2011, 11:11:49 PM
Special elections are always strange.  Turner should never win here, but this district has so many weird voters, and with lower turnout, ugh.  I still don't see how he wins, but who knows.  You have to expect that the place will, without an incumbent, at minimum, start reverting to its PVI, so single digits makes sense.

Is anyone really spending any money here other than the local players?  Though I don't see how national money helps in this district, of all places - better to just plaster Ed Koch supporting you all over the place given the demos of the likely voters.

It's getting to be in NY congressional races - when the machine hand-picks someone, maybe you should always bet against them.  :P


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on August 20, 2011, 11:11:58 PM
I was listening to Jewish radio tonight (don't ask) -- Dov Hikind said directly that he could never endorse Weprin

update: Jewish radio is great on Saturday nights, Weprin just came on and suggested "you might see a full-scale war" now in Gaza


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on August 20, 2011, 11:14:43 PM
Is anyone really spending any money here other than the local players?  Though I don't see how national money helps in this district, of all places - better to just plaster Ed Koch supporting you all over the place given the demos of the likely voters.

NY State Dems are plastering the district with fliers (http://s3.amazonaws.com/twitpic/photos/full/376524129.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAJF3XCCKACR3QDMOA&Expires=1313901005&Signature=QLrsIWf8fubyPM90ibLgCFGOMys%3D), DCCC issuing scathing anti-Turner press releases, I think that's about it.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 21, 2011, 04:31:40 AM
I was listening to Jewish radio tonight (don't ask) -- Dov Hikind said directly that he could never endorse Weprin

update: Jewish radio is great on Saturday nights, Weprin just came on and suggested "you might see a full-scale war" now in Gaza

Weprin was endorsed by Lieberman, so I guess he has his Zionist flank covered.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on August 21, 2011, 07:50:15 AM
Kathy Hochul's district is R+6, this district is D+5, and that doesn't even represent the trendlines which had Obama improving compared to Kerry in NY-26 but declining in NY-9

I'm not reading your implication here.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on August 22, 2011, 07:02:42 AM
Turner will win this race because of Weprin's same gender "marriage" vote/speech


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Napoleon on August 22, 2011, 09:04:26 AM
I was listening to Jewish radio tonight (don't ask) -- Dov Hikind said directly that he could never endorse Weprin

update: Jewish radio is great on Saturday nights, Weprin just came on and suggested "you might see a full-scale war" now in Gaza

Weprin was endorsed by Lieberman, so I guess he has his Zionist flank covered.

Wow, I don't even want to win this race anymore.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Vosem on August 22, 2011, 09:20:14 AM
I was listening to Jewish radio tonight (don't ask) -- Dov Hikind said directly that he could never endorse Weprin

update: Jewish radio is great on Saturday nights, Weprin just came on and suggested "you might see a full-scale war" now in Gaza

I used to live in NYC, it was very entertaining. (Especially because most of my family took it seriously).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on August 23, 2011, 12:30:50 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/23/nyregion/heckling-marks-election-forum-for-turner-and-weprin.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytmetro&seid=auto

I was there tonight, it was WILD for should have been a sleepy debate, the moderator constantly lost control of the crowd. Crowd constantly heckled both candidates, mostly Weprin, and then the Crowd constantly yelled to throw out the people heckling, although that never happened


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 01, 2011, 09:38:55 AM

Charlie Gasperino tears Welprin a new one:

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/queens/clueless_bond_pro_is_going_to_be_JoG9e5X3QURIC2MHV4BwCJ

The corrupt government is the bloated government. Politicians don't save the taxpayers money and pocket a taste of it for themselves. Politicians create giant honeypots, and, help themselves to a taste.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 01, 2011, 10:23:53 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/23/nyregion/heckling-marks-election-forum-for-turner-and-weprin.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytmetro&seid=auto

I was there tonight, it was WILD for should have been a sleepy debate, the moderator constantly lost control of the crowd. Crowd constantly heckled both candidates, mostly Weprin, and then the Crowd constantly yelled to throw out the people heckling, although that never happened

Shoulda told me.  I had an invite to the debate, but decided not to go.  I figured it would get out of control, though.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on September 01, 2011, 07:56:57 PM
I actually think Turner might this one.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 01, 2011, 08:42:43 PM
I heard that there is a poll out showing Weprin and Turner tied at 42% each. Any truth to this? Is it from a reputable pollster?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Talleyrand on September 01, 2011, 08:46:41 PM
I heard that there is a poll out showing Weprin and Turner tied at 42% each. Any truth to this? Is it from a reputable pollster?

This pollster predicted a 52% Weiner, 48% Turner election last year. The actual margin was 60-40.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 01, 2011, 08:54:44 PM
I actually think Turner might this one.

If he does it will be because Weprin's position in favor of marriage redefinition.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 01, 2011, 09:08:45 PM
Turner's own internal has him stuck at 42%, which is right around where he is in most polls. I don't see how he wins this.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 02, 2011, 12:30:05 AM
I actually think Turner might this one.

If he does it will be because Weprin's position in favor of marriage redefinition.

That's the third time you post this nonsense. I think we got the message, so please take your idiocy and get the hell out of here.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 02, 2011, 09:10:28 AM
I'm personally expecting a margin about like the Hahn/Huey race... maybe a little closer.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 02, 2011, 11:36:08 AM
DCCC releases a poll from a NY outfit that has Weprin ahead 47% to 39%. 400 respondents, two day sample (one of which was the same day as the GOP poll).

http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9708308054/democrats-release-their-own-ny-9-poll-12-05-pm-o


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 02, 2011, 12:33:30 PM
DCCC releases a poll from a NY outfit that has Weprin ahead 47% to 39%. 400 respondents, two day sample (one of which was the same day as the GOP poll).

http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9708308054/democrats-release-their-own-ny-9-poll-12-05-pm-o

who wrote that story??


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 02, 2011, 12:37:35 PM
DCCC releases a poll from a NY outfit that has Weprin ahead 47% to 39%. 400 respondents, two day sample (one of which was the same day as the GOP poll).

http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9708308054/democrats-release-their-own-ny-9-poll-12-05-pm-o

who wrote that story??

A "journalist".


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 02, 2011, 12:51:59 PM
DCCC releases a poll from a NY outfit that has Weprin ahead 47% to 39%. 400 respondents, two day sample (one of which was the same day as the GOP poll).

http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9708308054/democrats-release-their-own-ny-9-poll-12-05-pm-o

who wrote that story??

Some kid in his pajamas, eating Cheetos at the basement of his parents.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 02, 2011, 01:28:28 PM
So, Weprin is up by 3-5 points then.  If I'm a Dem, I would see reason for concern, just reminding myself that probably most of the undecideds were Obama voters.  Would like to know the exact composition though (white or not is the biggie) - special elections are strange in that regard.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 02, 2011, 01:30:41 PM
So, Weprin is up by 3-5 points then.  If I'm a Dem, I would see reason for concern, just reminding myself that probably most of the undecideds were Obama voters.  Would like to know the exact composition though (white or not is the biggie) - special elections are strange in that regard.

Here's the full cross-tabs to Siena's poll earlier. (http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD9%20Aug%202011%20Crosstabs.pdf)

You can see that Obama ain't popular among the district's voters


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 02, 2011, 01:37:46 PM
So, Weprin is up by 3-5 points then.  If I'm a Dem, I would see reason for concern, just reminding myself that probably most of the undecideds were Obama voters.  Would like to know the exact composition though (white or not is the biggie) - special elections are strange in that regard.

Here's the full cross-tabs to Siena's poll earlier. (http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD9%20Aug%202011%20Crosstabs.pdf)

You can see that Obama ain't popular among the district's voters

I'm sure he isn't.  Though trusting Siena crosstabs is something I would never do.

What's your feeling of the race on the ground (I'm a little too far away to really know)?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 02, 2011, 02:01:56 PM
I think you're right, low or mid single digits. Weprin's campaign is very poorly run, and it's the main reason why this race is so close. The gaffes, the debate cancellations, the lack of knowledge about the news cycle...

I mean, they sent out this ridiculous press release 30 minutes before announcing they raised half a million dollars, undermining their own big announcement: http://www.politickerny.com/2011/09/01/weprin-campaign-sends-in-a-wizard-to-endorse-turner/


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 02, 2011, 02:04:01 PM
I think you're right, low or mid single digits. Weprin's campaign is very poorly run, and it's the main reason why this race is so close. The gaffes, the debate cancellations, the lack of knowledge about the news cycle...

I mean, they sent out this ridiculous press release 30 minutes before announcing they raised half a million dollars, undermining their own big announcement: http://www.politickerny.com/2011/09/01/weprin-campaign-sends-in-a-wizard-to-endorse-turner/

Well, it's not like Turner hasn't made his own share of gaffes. Perhaps if that city council guy that krazey kept mentioning ran, the race would've been tied.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 02, 2011, 02:07:33 PM
I actually think Turner might this one.

If he does it will be because Weprin's position in favor of marriage redefinition.

That's the third time you post this nonsense. I think we got the message, so please take your idiocy and get the hell out of here.


just because you don't like it doesn't make it nonsense or idiocy (The fact that the demographic that normally would have supported Weprin at over a 90% rate will now vote against him solely due to the marriage redefinition vote is a fact.)  That little fact will effect this election substantially even if Weprin wins.

Next time maybe you should actually live in NY before you make stupid comments.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 02, 2011, 02:13:34 PM
I actually think Turner might this one.

If he does it will be because Weprin's position in favor of marriage redefinition.

That's the third time you post this nonsense. I think we got the message, so please take your idiocy and get the hell out of here.


just because you don't like it doesn't make it nonsense or idiocy (The fact that the demographic that normally would have supported Weprin at over a 90% rate will now vote against him solely due to the marriage redefinition vote is a fact.)  That little fact will effect this election substantially even if Weprin wins.

Next time maybe you should actually live in NY before you make stupid comments.

I don't have to live to New York to understand what kind of person you are. Unfortunately idiots and bigots are cosmopolitan species.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 02, 2011, 02:25:28 PM
I actually think Turner might this one.

If he does it will be because Weprin's position in favor of marriage redefinition.

That's the third time you post this nonsense. I think we got the message, so please take your idiocy and get the hell out of here.


just because you don't like it doesn't make it nonsense or idiocy (The fact that the demographic that normally would have supported Weprin at over a 90% rate will now vote against him solely due to the marriage redefinition vote is a fact.)  That little fact will effect this election substantially even if Weprin wins.

Next time maybe you should actually live in NY before you make stupid comments.

I don't have to live to New York to understand what kind of person you are. Unfortunately idiots and bigots are cosmopolitan species.

considering the fact that the demographic I'm speaking about is one of the most hated groups if not the most hated group in the world I think you might be the bigot.

PS. even if were all bigots it still doesn't change the fact that if a demographic that is quite large in the district changes from 90% support to anywhere from 60-90+% the other way that will effect this race.
Quote
get the hell out of here
If you agree to stay out of NY then I'll agree to stay out of Greece.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 02, 2011, 02:36:20 PM
considering the fact that the demographic I'm speaking about is one of the most hated groups if not the most hated group in the world I think you might be the bigot.

PS. even if were all bigots it still doesn't change the fact that if a demographic that is quite large in the district changes from 90% support to anywhere from 60-90+% the other way that will effect this race.
Quote
get the hell out of here
If you agree to stay out of NY then I'll agree to stay out of Greece.

Cut the PC stuff with me kid. I'm not an AMPAS member. If you want to be a homophobe own it and stop hiding behind your religion.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 02, 2011, 03:04:21 PM
Obama is a big reason why Weprin's ship is sinking here.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 02, 2011, 03:11:16 PM
considering the fact that the demographic I'm speaking about is one of the most hated groups if not the most hated group in the world I think you might be the bigot.

PS. even if were all bigots it still doesn't change the fact that if a demographic that is quite large in the district changes from 90% support to anywhere from 60-90+% the other way that will effect this race.
Quote
get the hell out of here
If you agree to stay out of NY then I'll agree to stay out of Greece.

Cut the PC stuff with me kid. I'm not an AMPAS member. If you want to be a homophobe own it and stop hiding behind your religion.
I'm not a homophobe for 2 reasons
1. I'm not afraid of homosexuals
2. I don't like them for rational reasons (which happen to be 100% based on religion)

I'm also not hiding behind my religion, my religion is everything to me and frankly most Orthodox Jews.

and if you want to be an anti semite own up to it and stop hiding behind your liberalism.

please tell me what I should do with this statement in Jewish tradition if I wasn't in your words a homophobe (keep in mind we do not change the text to suit what ever the in thing is of the times)
(this is a translation of course)
god did not decree the flood until men started writing marriage documents for other men


leaving aside the reasons behind it over 40 Rabbis including some of the biggest rabbis in America came out against Weprin for the reason I said electorally speaking that means something whether or not that homophobic or not (and if you say they are your giving more credence to the fact that your the true bigot).  When it comes to financing Jewish organization Weprin is equal to none and if it wasn't for the tremendous elephant (or donkey of a man) in the room he would be getting plenty of support that is now going out to vote against him.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Smash255 on September 02, 2011, 03:19:32 PM
considering the fact that the demographic I'm speaking about is one of the most hated groups if not the most hated group in the world I think you might be the bigot.

PS. even if were all bigots it still doesn't change the fact that if a demographic that is quite large in the district changes from 90% support to anywhere from 60-90+% the other way that will effect this race.
Quote
get the hell out of here
If you agree to stay out of NY then I'll agree to stay out of Greece.

Cut the PC stuff with me kid. I'm not an AMPAS member. If you want to be a homophobe own it and stop hiding behind your religion.
I'm not a homophobe for 2 reasons
1. I'm not afraid of homosexuals
2. I don't like them for rational reasons (which happen to be 100% based on religion)

I'm also not hiding behind my religion, my religion is everything to me and frankly most Orthodox Jews.

and if you want to be an anti semite own up to it and stop hiding behind your liberalism.

please tell me what I should do with this statement in Jewish tradition if I wasn't in your words a homophobe (keep in mind we do not change the text to suit what ever the in thing is of the times)
(this is a translation of course)
god did not decree the flood until men started writing marriage documents for other men


leaving aside the reasons behind it over 40 Rabbis including some of the biggest rabbis in America came out against Weprin for the reason I said electorally speaking that means something whether or not that homophobic or not (and if you say they are your giving more credence to the fact that your the true bigot).  When it comes to financing Jewish organization Weprin is equal to none and if it wasn't for the tremendous elephant (or donkey of a man) in the room he would be getting plenty of support that is now going out to vote against him.

The orthodox voted heavily against Obama and he still won the district, despite losing the Brooklyn portion by a bit.  Its going to come down the margins in the Queens portion of the district.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 02, 2011, 03:57:45 PM
but if it wasn't for that marriage vote the orthodox Jewish vote would have voted for Weprin at over a 90% rate


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Smash255 on September 02, 2011, 04:06:51 PM
but if it wasn't for that marriage vote the orthodox Jewish vote would have voted for Weprin at over a 90% rate

Based off what exactly??  Gay marriage vote or not, Turner was likely to get the Orthodox vote and win the Brooklyn portion of the district

Btw, the district has more than just Orthodox Jews, Werpin leads among Jewish voters.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 02, 2011, 04:37:30 PM
Quote
Based off what exactly??  Gay marriage vote or not, Turner was likely to get the Orthodox vote and win the Brooklyn portion of the district.
if you think that you don't know the first thing about the Orthodox Jewish vote

Weprin funded more Othodox Jewish organizations then any other politician on any level of government.

There are a few reasons why Orthodox jews have been voting for the Republicans and if you take away those issues they would lean slightly left on most of the issues and with Weprin's funding record he would have won big (but we are not willing to sell our principles for money) (and the only major area where Weprin failed was on Social issues with marriage being the biggest)

substitute Weprin for Dear or Hikind (Hikind's race last year was just to send him a message if it would have been a real race he would have won in much bigger) on the democratic line and Turner looses the orthodox vote in the high 90%

PS
how many orthodox jews have you spoken to about this election? I'm curious was it even one?


why else do you think over 40 rabbis said you can't vote for David Weprin even though he funded more Orthodox Jewish organizations then any other politician on any level of goverment.

Why else are many other Rabbis (who are not from the 40) that have previously been close to Weprin avoiding him like the plague.
thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9038350644/the-rabbis-are-avoiding-being-photographed-with-weprin

Why else does almost every single Orthodox jew who supports Turner for a variety of other  reasons almost always add say some variation of how can any orthodox jew vote for someone who said it's alright for a orthodox jew to vote for gay marriage/or vote for gay marriage/or march in the parades ext.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Smash255 on September 02, 2011, 05:05:13 PM
Quote
Based off what exactly??  Gay marriage vote or not, Turner was likely to get the Orthodox vote and win the Brooklyn portion of the district.
if you think that you don't know the first thing about the Orthodox Jewish vote

Weprin funded more Othodox Jewish organizations then any other politician on any level of government.

There are a few reasons why Orthodox jews have been voting for the Republicans and if you take away those issues they would lean slightly left on most of the issues and with Weprin's funding record he would have won big (but we are not willing to sell our principles for money) (and the only major area where Weprin failed was on Social issues with marriage being the biggest)

substitute Weprin for Dear or Hikind (Hikind's race last year was just to send him a message if it would have been a real race he would have won in much bigger) on the democratic line and Turner looses the orthodox vote in the high 90%

PS
how many orthodox jews have you spoken to about this election? I'm curious was it even one?


why else do you think over 40 rabbis said you can't vote for David Weprin even though he funded more Orthodox Jewish organizations then any other politician on any level of goverment.

Why else are many other Rabbis (who are not from the 40) that have previously been close to Weprin avoiding him like the plague.
thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9038350644/the-rabbis-are-avoiding-being-photographed-with-weprin

Why else does almost every single Orthodox jew who supports Turner for a variety of other  reasons almost always add say some variation of how can any orthodox jew vote for someone who said it's alright for a orthodox jew to vote for gay marriage/or vote for gay marriage/or march in the parades ext.

There is much more to the Jewish voters in the district than the Orthodox.   Werpin for example is going to win big in areas like Forest Hills/  70% of the district is in Queens, and just like Obama/McCain, dominance with the Orthodox doesn't mean you will win the district. 


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 02, 2011, 05:24:44 PM
Quote
There is much more to the Jewish voters in the district than the Orthodox.   Werpin for example is going to win big in areas like Forest Hills/  70% of the district is in Queens, and just like Obama/McCain, dominance with the Orthodox doesn't mean you will win the district. 
Even if Weprin wins (and I'm not saying he will I think Turner will win by a slight majority) if it wasn't for his gay shenanigans this district would not even be in play.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 02, 2011, 05:29:45 PM
Quote
I'm curious was it even one?

I noticed you didn't answer this question


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: danny on September 02, 2011, 05:58:31 PM
considering the fact that the demographic I'm speaking about is one of the most hated groups if not the most hated group in the world I think you might be the bigot.

PS. even if were all bigots it still doesn't change the fact that if a demographic that is quite large in the district changes from 90% support to anywhere from 60-90+% the other way that will effect this race.
Quote
get the hell out of here
If you agree to stay out of NY then I'll agree to stay out of Greece.

Cut the PC stuff with me kid. I'm not an AMPAS member. If you want to be a homophobe own it and stop hiding behind your religion.
I'm not a homophobe for 2 reasons
1. I'm not afraid of homosexuals
2. I don't like them for rational reasons (which happen to be 100% based on religion)

I'm also not hiding behind my religion, my religion is everything to me and frankly most Orthodox Jews.

and if you want to be an anti semite own up to it and stop hiding behind your liberalism.

please tell me what I should do with this statement in Jewish tradition if I wasn't in your words a homophobe (keep in mind we do not change the text to suit what ever the in thing is of the times)
(this is a translation of course)
god did not decree the flood until men started writing marriage documents for other men


leaving aside the reasons behind it over 40 Rabbis including some of the biggest rabbis in America came out against Weprin for the reason I said electorally speaking that means something whether or not that homophobic or not (and if you say they are your giving more credence to the fact that your the true bigot).  When it comes to financing Jewish organization Weprin is equal to none and if it wasn't for the tremendous elephant (or donkey of a man) in the room he would be getting plenty of support that is now going out to vote against him.

He didn't say anything remotely antisemitic in this thread.
and saying you don't like gays is because of the bible doesn't mean you're not a homophobe, that's just your reason for being a homophobe (i.e you are homophobic because you follow a homophobic bible).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 02, 2011, 06:14:51 PM
considering the fact that the demographic I'm speaking about is one of the most hated groups if not the most hated group in the world I think you might be the bigot.

PS. even if were all bigots it still doesn't change the fact that if a demographic that is quite large in the district changes from 90% support to anywhere from 60-90+% the other way that will effect this race.
Quote
get the hell out of here
If you agree to stay out of NY then I'll agree to stay out of Greece.

Cut the PC stuff with me kid. I'm not an AMPAS member. If you want to be a homophobe own it and stop hiding behind your religion.
I'm not a homophobe for 2 reasons
1. I'm not afraid of homosexuals
2. I don't like them for rational reasons (which happen to be 100% based on religion)

I'm also not hiding behind my religion, my religion is everything to me and frankly most Orthodox Jews.

and if you want to be an anti semite own up to it and stop hiding behind your liberalism.

please tell me what I should do with this statement in Jewish tradition if I wasn't in your words a homophobe (keep in mind we do not change the text to suit what ever the in thing is of the times)
(this is a translation of course)
god did not decree the flood until men started writing marriage documents for other men


leaving aside the reasons behind it over 40 Rabbis including some of the biggest rabbis in America came out against Weprin for the reason I said electorally speaking that means something whether or not that homophobic or not (and if you say they are your giving more credence to the fact that your the true bigot).  When it comes to financing Jewish organization Weprin is equal to none and if it wasn't for the tremendous elephant (or donkey of a man) in the room he would be getting plenty of support that is now going out to vote against him.

He didn't say anything remotely antisemitic in this thread.
and saying you don't like gays is because of the bible doesn't mean you're not a homophobe, that's just your reason for being a homophobe (i.e you are homophobic because you follow a homophobic bible).

he said I was "hiding behind religion" you said I was against them to Judaism thus is the difference he was attacking me for my Judaism thus earning the anti semite title.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 02, 2011, 06:19:43 PM
Firstly, welcome to the forum. Secondly... you will soon discover that certain ways of arguing should be avoided if you want people to take you more than slightly seriously ever other Gibbous Moon.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: danny on September 02, 2011, 06:51:26 PM
he said I was "hiding behind religion" you said I was against them to Judaism thus is the difference he was attacking me for my Judaism thus earning the anti semite title.

"hiding behind religion" is a way of attacking you and not the religion.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 02, 2011, 08:54:26 PM
Based off what exactly??  Gay marriage vote or not, Turner was likely to get the Orthodox vote and win the Brooklyn portion of the district

Btw, the district has more than just Orthodox Jews, Werpin leads among Jewish voters.

NY-09 has more than just Jews, too.  It's the non-Hispanic white vote sink in Southeast Brooklyn and Southern Queens, largely owing its shape and demographic makeup to the shapes of the Brooklyn and Queens VRA African-American and Hispanic districts.   The district includes substantial Italian and Irish-American neighborhoods as well.   As someone noted earlier in the thread, it's arguably the most New York of NYC's congressional districts, with the lowest percentage of residents born in a US state other than the district's state of any Congressional district in the country (though it has a large share of foreign-born residents).

Whether the blue-collar Archie Bunker types who live in the district would vote against Weprin due to his stance on gay marriage is an interesting question.  There may be a few, but, chances are, those whose vote would be swayed by Weprin's stance on gay marriage are already voting for Turner anyway because he's the more socially conservative candidate.   

Special elections are usually won on turnout.  Having an organized group behind you, like Orthodox Rabbis can't hurt.  But despite running a terrible campaign, I have a hard time seeing Weprin lose this.  Democrats have the organizational muscle and machine in NY-09 - which matters a lot.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 03, 2011, 02:12:09 AM
Weprin will win. It will not be close but it will be "closer than it should be".


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on September 03, 2011, 05:52:24 AM
Quote
There is much more to the Jewish voters in the district than the Orthodox.   
[/quote]There is also more to Orthodox Jewry than the people in traditional dress who vote as a bloc. Not every Jew who doesn't is some Secular Jewish liberal.

Just wanted to put that out there.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 03, 2011, 08:18:04 PM
he said I was "hiding behind religion" you said I was against them to Judaism thus is the difference he was attacking me for my Judaism thus earning the anti semite title.

"hiding behind religion" is a way of attacking you and not the religion.
well when I'm following my religion and he attacks me for that I'm 100 percent sure that he's anti semtic (which means to me (if you want to give me a racial thing then I guess the Crusaders and Inquisitors weren't anti Semetic) people who hate jews for following Judaism)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 03, 2011, 08:24:53 PM
he said I was "hiding behind religion" you said I was against them to Judaism thus is the difference he was attacking me for my Judaism thus earning the anti semite title.

"hiding behind religion" is a way of attacking you and not the religion.
well when I'm following my religion and he attacks me for that I'm 100 percent sure that he's anti semtic (which means to me (if you want to give me a racial thing then I guess the Crusaders and Inquisitors weren't anti Semetic) people who hate jews for following Judaism)


Yeah, because the vast majority of Jews who aren't homophobes are clearly misguided and only bigots like you are in possession of the absolute truth.

Go get a life kid.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 03, 2011, 08:28:18 PM
Based off what exactly??  Gay marriage vote or not, Turner was likely to get the Orthodox vote and win the Brooklyn portion of the district

Btw, the district has more than just Orthodox Jews, Werpin leads among Jewish voters.

NY-09 has more than just Jews, too.  It's the non-Hispanic white vote sink in Southeast Brooklyn and Southern Queens, largely owing its shape and demographic makeup to the shapes of the Brooklyn and Queens VRA African-American and Hispanic districts.   The district includes substantial Italian and Irish-American neighborhoods as well.   As someone noted earlier in the thread, it's arguably the most New York of NYC's congressional districts, with the lowest percentage of residents born in a US state other than the district's state of any Congressional district in the country (though it has a large share of foreign-born residents).

Whether the blue-collar Archie Bunker types who live in the district would vote against Weprin due to his stance on gay marriage is an interesting question.  There may be a few, but, chances are, those whose vote would be swayed by Weprin's stance on gay marriage are already voting for Turner anyway because he's the more socially conservative candidate.   

Special elections are usually won on turnout.  Having an organized group behind you, like Orthodox Rabbis can't hurt.  But despite running a terrible campaign, I have a hard time seeing Weprin lose this.  Democrats have the organizational muscle and machine in NY-09 - which matters a lot.

I agree with you on the facts but the fact that the blue-collar Archie Bunker types (which don't really exist in NY anymore but I'll substitute it for Irish or Italian Archie Bunker types) in this election are now pretty much solid Republicans (having a Irish as a candidate also helps a little) there pretty much irrelevant The largest swing vote in this district and the one that needs to vote Republican for this election to be one will is being decided based upon marriage redefinition makes my statement true if Turner wins by a combination of the different Conservative elements in this district.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 03, 2011, 08:34:43 PM
he said I was "hiding behind religion" you said I was against them to Judaism thus is the difference he was attacking me for my Judaism thus earning the anti semite title.

"hiding behind religion" is a way of attacking you and not the religion.
well when I'm following my religion and he attacks me for that I'm 100 percent sure that he's anti semtic (which means to me (if you want to give me a racial thing then I guess the Crusaders and Inquisitors weren't anti Semetic) people who hate jews for following Judaism)


Yeah, because the vast majority of Jews who aren't homophobes are clearly misguided and only bigots like you are in possession of the absolute truth.

Go get a life kid.

and the vast majority of American Jews don't follow any of the basic tenants (sabbath, Holidays, Kosher ext.) of Judaism and even more so even any 5 year old Orthodox child most likely knows much more about Judaism then your average American Jew In fact most of them can't even read hebrew. 
So what they think is 100% irrelevant to anything.

so keep your antisemitism out of blogs of about a NYC election


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on September 03, 2011, 08:41:41 PM
So what they think is 100% irrelevant to anything.

Excuse me?  I'm Jewish, I don't keep Kosher or the Sabbath (fully, at least), and I damn well beg to differ.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 03, 2011, 08:46:41 PM
Once again, a heavy hint to cut it out.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 03, 2011, 08:51:16 PM
So what they think is 100% irrelevant to anything.

Excuse me?  I'm Jewish, I don't keep Kosher or the Sabbath (fully, at least), and I damn well beg to differ.
I'm not saying as a person your irrelevant, rather I'm saying that your opinion about Judaism's position about gay marriage is irrelevant.

to say that someone who follows their religion is hiding behind their religion on an issue like marriage redefinition because the vast majority of Jews are in favor of marriage redefinition I have to point out that the vast majority of Jews opinion about what Judaism's view point on a subject is is irrelevant because if it was I would also violate Shabbos and eat non Kosher.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 03, 2011, 08:51:39 PM
Anyways, as to the by-election... my general view remains the same. This is (or ought to be) a safe seat. End of. So losing it would be a big fycking blow, no matter what bollocks could be spun about the humiliating circumstances or the grossly exaggerated importance of the Hasidic vote.

Of course, safe seats are often lost in by-elections. And a big contributing factor is often (though not always) a poor choice of candidate. And, well... yeah. So, we'll see.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 03, 2011, 09:08:30 PM
Anyways, as to the by-election... my general view remains the same. This is (or ought to be) a safe seat. End of. So losing it would be a big fycking blow, no matter what bollocks could be spun about the humiliating circumstances or the grossly exaggerated importance of the Hasidic vote.

Of course, safe seats are often lost in by-elections. And a big contributing factor is often (though not always) a poor choice of candidate. And, well... yeah. So, we'll see.
the orthodox vote here is mostly litvish and sefardi not hasidic (just as religious though (if not more so))


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: danny on September 03, 2011, 09:37:45 PM
he said I was "hiding behind religion" you said I was against them to Judaism thus is the difference he was attacking me for my Judaism thus earning the anti semite title.

"hiding behind religion" is a way of attacking you and not the religion.
well when I'm following my religion and he attacks me for that I'm 100 percent sure that he's anti semtic (which means to me (if you want to give me a racial thing then I guess the Crusaders and Inquisitors weren't anti Semetic) people who hate jews for following Judaism)

The crusaders and Inquisitors actually persecuted people because they were Jewish, PX simply disagreed with a certain opinion which is part of Judaism (and you for following it), an opinion with for which he would oppose other religions with the same opinion.
If not agreeing with part of Jewish law/scripture would make one anti-Semitic than that would make any non-Jew and many Jews Anti-Semitic, with me proudly among them.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 03, 2011, 09:40:30 PM
Anyways, as to the by-election... my general view remains the same. This is (or ought to be) a safe seat. End of. So losing it would be a big fycking blow, no matter what bollocks could be spun about the humiliating circumstances or the grossly exaggerated importance of the Hasidic vote.

Of course, safe seats are often lost in by-elections. And a big contributing factor is often (though not always) a poor choice of candidate. And, well... yeah. So, we'll see.
the orthodox vote here is mostly litvish and sefardi not hasidic (just as religious though (if not more so))

Do you offer some sort of system thats weighs the religiousness of the various sects?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 03, 2011, 09:47:07 PM
Anyways, as to the by-election... my general view remains the same. This is (or ought to be) a safe seat. End of. So losing it would be a big fycking blow, no matter what bollocks could be spun about the humiliating circumstances or the grossly exaggerated importance of the Hasidic vote.

Of course, safe seats are often lost in by-elections. And a big contributing factor is often (though not always) a poor choice of candidate. And, well... yeah. So, we'll see.
the orthodox vote here is mostly litvish and sefardi not hasidic (just as religious though (if not more so))

Do you offer some sort of system thats weighs the religiousness of the various sects?
my point was that where talking about litvish (Lithuanian based) and sefardi jews who are not chasidic though just as rigorously orthodox (but for example don't follow any grand rabbi)

(everything else I shouldn't have said on a general forum and was really meant only on the very off shot there are some chasidim who may happen to see that comment)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 03, 2011, 09:49:27 PM
he said I was "hiding behind religion" you said I was against them to Judaism thus is the difference he was attacking me for my Judaism thus earning the anti semite title.

"hiding behind religion" is a way of attacking you and not the religion.
well when I'm following my religion and he attacks me for that I'm 100 percent sure that he's anti semtic (which means to me (if you want to give me a racial thing then I guess the Crusaders and Inquisitors weren't anti Semetic) people who hate jews for following Judaism)

The crusaders and Inquisitors actually persecuted people because they were Jewish, PX simply disagreed with a certain opinion which is part of Judaism (and you for following it), an opinion with for which he would oppose other religions with the same opinion.
If not agreeing with part of Jewish law/scripture would make one anti-Semitic than that would make any non-Jew and many Jews Anti-Semitic, with me proudly among them.

to attack someone because of that belief or to say that "I'm hiding behind my religion" would be anti semtic.

also The crusaders and Inquisitors actually persecuted people because they were Jewish (you forgot this part) and would not abandon their faith


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on September 03, 2011, 10:36:14 PM
I'm not saying as a person your irrelevant, rather I'm saying that your opinion about Judaism's position about gay marriage is irrelevant.

I know what your point was, and I'm still saying I damn well beg to differ.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 04, 2011, 12:12:32 AM

Uh, this isn't the United Kingdom. Once again, a heavy hint to cut it out.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 04, 2011, 01:29:04 AM
There's an entire board where you can debate the merits of the varying forms of Judaism. Please take the discussion there.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 04, 2011, 09:59:33 AM
There's an entire board where you can debate the merits of the varying forms of Judaism. Please take the discussion there.

This


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on September 04, 2011, 10:04:36 AM
Also, you know, it's very possible to be raised going to Hebrew School, to be able to read Hebrew and understand the tenets of the Jewish faith, and then find there is no place for you in it. Just be glad you have never had to confront the issue of your own sexual orientation being in conflict with what your teachers said... And think twice before patting yourself on the back for not understanding this conflict.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Guderian on September 04, 2011, 11:40:51 AM

Uh, this isn't the United Kingdom. Once again, a heavy hint to cut it out.

"You've been talking about the Queen again? On Independence Day?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xU5x4HmAvk


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 04, 2011, 12:41:40 PM
So what they think is 100% irrelevant to anything.

Excuse me?  I'm Jewish, I don't keep Kosher or the Sabbath (fully, at least), and I damn well beg to differ.



Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 06, 2011, 01:28:24 PM
http://www.magellanstrategies.com/index.php/2011/09/06/new-york-9th-congressional-district-special-election-survey-9611/

Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results of an automated survey of 2,055 likely voters in New York’s 9th Congressional District.  The survey was conducted September 1st, 2011 and has a margin of error of 2.16%.

The survey finds Republican Bob Turner leading Democrat David Weprin by 4 points (Turner 44.6%/Weprin 40.4%/Hoeppner 3.2%/undecided 11.8%). 



Probably too rosy, but it is what it is. If what is being said here is true, it will be his views on homosexual marriage that cost Weprin the seat.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 06, 2011, 02:31:48 PM
lol, homosexual marriage


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 06, 2011, 02:47:14 PM
How likely is a 36% Obama approval in this district ?

I thought he won with about 60% there ... ?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 06, 2011, 04:29:44 PM
How likely is a 36% Obama approval in this district ?

I thought he won with about 60% there ... ?

Obama got 55%.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 06, 2011, 04:31:21 PM
Dov Hikind endorses Turner to keep the momentum building.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on September 06, 2011, 04:36:58 PM
As I've said before...I really think this one could fall out of Weprin's hands. Weprin made a huge mistake by not attending the debate. Bob Turner seems to want it more than Weprin does.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 06, 2011, 04:37:36 PM
Dov Hikind endorses Turner to keep the momentum building.

Does this mean much in the district? From my own, minimal research on the guy, he seems somewhat prominent (and asinine. He's one of the clowns that said that "The Passion of the Christ" would cause anti-semetic and bigoted rioting. How'd that work out, Dov?).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Verily on September 06, 2011, 05:55:29 PM
Dov Hikind endorses Turner to keep the momentum building.

Does this mean much in the district? From my own, minimal research on the guy, he seems somewhat prominent (and asinine. He's one of the clowns that said that "The Passion of the Christ" would cause anti-semetic and bigoted rioting. How'd that work out, Dov?).

No one other than the Orthodox care what Dov Hikind thinks. I doubt his endorsement has any real impact other than to indicate which way the Orthodox vote was going (which we already knew, and the Orthodox vote in this district was around 90% McCain in 2008 anyway).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 06, 2011, 06:16:19 PM
Magellan thinks black voters are going 40-39 for Turner. That... seems unlikely.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 06, 2011, 07:34:48 PM
Magellan thinks black voters are going 40-39 for Turner. That... seems unlikely.

Because the poll was of over 2,000 voters, the African American sample size wasn't as small as usual for these polls, either - 115 - in a district that is only 5% black.   That would theoretically put the MoE in the 9-10 point range, though I doubt the subsample was properly weighted or as random as it should be if Turner is winning the black vote.

How likely is a 36% Obama approval in this district ?

I thought he won with about 60% there ... ?

That's Obama's job approval number among likely voters, not registered voters or adults.  Figuring out which voters are likely to turn out for an off year special election is challenging.  If disgust at Obama is what will drive special election turnout, that number might not be far off.  But that's a big if.

Like much in this poll, Obama's 36% job approval number seems a bit off.  Those with no opinion on Obama's job approval were in double digits, which is a bit unusual for Presidential job approval question.  If you take out the undecideds, Obama's Magellan Strategies NY-09 job approval is at 41%, near Siena's NY-09 approval rating among those with an opinion - 46%.   But Siena's undecideds were only 3%, not 12.5%.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 06, 2011, 07:37:21 PM
Magellan's polls are far from accurate. I think they've missed the mark more than once.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 06, 2011, 08:27:58 PM
Dov Hikind endorses Turner to keep the momentum building.

Does this mean much in the district? From my own, minimal research on the guy, he seems somewhat prominent (and asinine. He's one of the clowns that said that "The Passion of the Christ" would cause anti-semetic and bigoted rioting. How'd that work out, Dov?).

No one other than the Orthodox care what Dov Hikind thinks. I doubt his endorsement has any real impact other than to indicate which way the Orthodox vote was going (which we already knew, and the Orthodox vote in this district was around 90% McCain in 2008 anyway).

It could help with turnout.  As a complete outsider, the Orthodox seem both cohesive and organized.  They could end up being a big chunk of the electorate.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 06, 2011, 08:37:30 PM
Dov Hikind always almost always endorses Republicans; his endorsement would only be news if he endorsed the Democrat.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 06, 2011, 09:05:48 PM
Magellan's polls are far from accurate. I think they've missed the mark more than once.

This was one of their Wisconsin polls.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/index.php/2011/08/05/wisconsin-senate-district-18-recall-election-survey/


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 07, 2011, 12:54:42 PM
Dov Hikind always almost always endorses Republicans; his endorsement would only be news if he endorsed the Democrat.
he has endorsed Democrats (who represent values that his district opposes) which is why he did so badly last time.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 07, 2011, 01:55:06 PM
Well, Weprin might not be ready for prime time but it's not like Turner is less gaffe-prone.

http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9916745664/nyt-reviews-yesterdays-candidate-forum (http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9916745664/nyt-reviews-yesterdays-candidate-forum)

And Mr. Turner found himself befuddled when he and Mr. Weprin were asked to name one corporate tax loophole they would like to close. After pondering the matter, Mr. Turner smiled widely and pleaded no contest. “As a Republican, I never met a loophole I didn’t like,” he said. “I really don’t know.” (Mr. Weprin cited tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas.)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 07, 2011, 05:31:55 PM
Well, Weprin might not be ready for prime time but it's not like Turner is less gaffe-prone.

http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9916745664/nyt-reviews-yesterdays-candidate-forum (http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9916745664/nyt-reviews-yesterdays-candidate-forum)

And Mr. Turner found himself befuddled when he and Mr. Weprin were asked to name one corporate tax loophole they would like to close. After pondering the matter, Mr. Turner smiled widely and pleaded no contest. “As a Republican, I never met a loophole I didn’t like,” he said. “I really don’t know.” (Mr. Weprin cited tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas.)

Answering "I don't know" to a question that most constituents couldn't answer isn't that big a deal except to insiders.  And a philosophical disagreement with raising taxes through cutting things that are not real loopholes isn't a gaffe.   

The so-called tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas are a feature of the dumb, overreaching way the US taxes overseas income, not a loophole in any traditional sense.  If anything, the way the US taxes foreign income needs to be reformed.  Not by enacting some simplistic, populist band aid that makes little economic sense and puts US companies with overseas operations at more of a competitive disadvantage than they already are, but in a well-thought out, complete fashion.  How to do so is above the pay grade of all but a handful of Congressmen, anyway.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 07, 2011, 06:17:54 PM
Well, Weprin might not be ready for prime time but it's not like Turner is less gaffe-prone.

http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9916745664/nyt-reviews-yesterdays-candidate-forum (http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9916745664/nyt-reviews-yesterdays-candidate-forum)

And Mr. Turner found himself befuddled when he and Mr. Weprin were asked to name one corporate tax loophole they would like to close. After pondering the matter, Mr. Turner smiled widely and pleaded no contest. “As a Republican, I never met a loophole I didn’t like,” he said. “I really don’t know.” (Mr. Weprin cited tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas.)

Answering "I don't know" to a question that most constituents couldn't answer isn't that big a deal except to insiders.  And a philosophical disagreement with raising taxes through cutting things that are not real loopholes isn't a gaffe.   

The so-called tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas are a feature of the dumb, overreaching way the US taxes overseas income, not a loophole in any traditional sense.  If anything, the way the US taxes foreign income needs to be reformed.  Not by enacting some simplistic, populist band aid that makes little economic sense and puts US companies with overseas operations at more of a competitive disadvantage than they already are, but in a well-thought out, complete fashion.  How to do so is above the pay grade of all but a handful of Congressmen, anyway.

Remind me, which one of the Koch brothers you are?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 07, 2011, 11:03:28 PM
US Corporations have a tax incentive not to repatriate profits from foreign subsidiaries if the tax rate of the foreign corporation in its host country is less than in the US. That's it. So what are we arguing about?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 07, 2011, 11:19:07 PM
US Corporations have a tax incentive not to repatriate profits from foreign subsidiaries if the tax rate of the foreign corporation in its host country is less than in the US. That's it. So what are we arguing about?

Yep. In the case of Microsoft, they would rather borrow money to pay dividends rather than repatriate cash.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 08, 2011, 01:41:28 PM
DCCC just purchased a nearly half-million dollar ad buy.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 08, 2011, 02:19:47 PM
US Corporations have a tax incentive not to repatriate profits from foreign subsidiaries if the tax rate of the foreign corporation in its host country is less than in the US. That's it. So what are we arguing about?

That that is a loophole instead of simply the function of the way the US tax system works and what that has to do with outsourcing in the first place, as it affects all US companies, even those who are increasing their US hiring.   

It's also rarely clear what exactly Democrats mean when they say "tax breaks for corporations that send jobs overseas".  One proposal (http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c111:S.3816:) was to disallow deductions for the costs of closing down US operations if jobs were shifted overseas as a result.  Another was to immediately tax income related to goods imported into the US from a factory outside the US after a trade or business is outsourced, instead of allowing deferral.  Neither is really a loophole in the conventional sense, and, arguably, would have caused US corporations to move their headquarters overseas (http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/10/the_move_your_corporate_headqu.html).

A better solution to that problem would be to lower or eliminate the tax on repatriated profits, not hike taxes on US companies, making them less competitive than they already are.  Or to lower the corporate tax rate so it's not the highest in the industrialized world (http://blog.heritage.org/2010/12/15/u-s-to-have-highest-corporate-tax-rate-in-the-world/). Unlike the US, most developed countries don't tax corporations on their worldwide income.

DCCC just purchased a nearly half-million dollar ad buy.

Yeah, Weprin's ads are now showing up on the local NYC network affiliates, not just cable in Brooklyn and Queens.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 08, 2011, 03:45:09 PM
Better still would be to lower the corporate tax rate in the US, so that for most overseas profits, there is no incentive not to repatriate because the tax rates are comparable across the major industrial nations. End of story.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 08, 2011, 04:15:32 PM
I guess Weprin is not the first fat white man who can't dance (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fQ7ZTbFCMw&feature=player_embedded), but I mean - really now.  Viewer discretion advised.

()


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 08, 2011, 06:32:49 PM
http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/in-race-for-weiners-seat-75000-from-foes-of-same-sex-marriage/

anyone still think that I'm completely wrong about Weprin loosing this because of marriage redefinition.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 08, 2011, 08:05:08 PM
Goddamnit, am I really going to have to make a donation to a Democrat here?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 08, 2011, 09:39:36 PM
PPP:
From first night polling, Turner up big. 


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 08, 2011, 10:07:29 PM
That's not what the tweet said, just for honesty reasons, I'll post it.  It did not mention any numbers or even who was up

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/111985726626873344

My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps.

That is the actually tweet, not what was posted above.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 08, 2011, 10:15:36 PM
What is it with NY machine candidates in recent special elections?

Anyway, the machine is worth more here than in most other places, but this is also one of those types of areas where if the voters are really against you, the machine won't matter much.  Follow?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 08, 2011, 10:50:48 PM
http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/in-race-for-weiners-seat-75000-from-foes-of-same-sex-marriage/

anyone still think that I'm completely wrong about Weprin loosing this because of marriage redefinition.

losing


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 08, 2011, 10:52:22 PM
What is it with NY machine candidates in recent special elections?

Anyway, the machine is worth more here than in most other places, but this is also one of those types of areas where if the voters are really against you, the machine won't matter much.  Follow?

Without hearing or watching Waprin, I just have this instinct that he is a nebbish. If so, and he can't hide it well enough, he's done.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 08, 2011, 11:45:16 PM
http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/in-race-for-weiners-seat-75000-from-foes-of-same-sex-marriage/

anyone still think that I'm completely wrong about Weprin loosing this because of marriage redefinition.

I suspect it just counts at the margins. It's a protest vote. These folks feel as ignored as hell. They feel like losers and don't like it. Being a loser in the Big Apple is hell.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 09, 2011, 12:08:20 AM
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/09/08/democrats_in_trouble_in_ny-9.html

If the Dems actually lose this seat, that will really be something. I remain skeptical for now.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 09, 2011, 12:30:14 AM
That's not what the tweet said, just for honesty reasons, I'll post it.  It did not mention any numbers or even who was up

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/111985726626873344

My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps.

That is the actually tweet, not what was posted above.


A close race would be "trouble." They say "BIG trouble," which indicates to me that the Republican is up, and by the emphasis, possibly beyond the margin of error.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 09, 2011, 12:35:56 AM
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/09/08/democrats_in_trouble_in_ny-9.html

If the Dems actually lose this seat, that will really be something. I remain skeptical for now.

Well, Scott Brown won a special in Massachusetts, which is D+12. This seat is only D+5.

It's not like it'd be an earthquake sign of doom for Democrats. I'd take it as a one-off, like the other special elections in New York where the GOPers were the ones falling off a cliff.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 09, 2011, 02:08:08 AM
Quote
I suspect it just counts at the margins. It's a protest vote. These folks feel as ignored as hell. They feel like losers and don't like it. Being a loser in the Big Apple is hell.

there is no way that the Orthodox jewish population (most likely the biggest Orthodox population in any CD in the country) would even consider voting for Turner if Weprin had a good record on all homosexual related issues (Weprin would have gotten around 90% of their vote) (like I said this guy most likely funded more Jewish (and Orthodox) organizations then any other politician in the country on any level of government) (and the more religious jewish Weprin supporters who find out that all the rabbis are going strongly against Weprin (Rabbis have never gotten involved in any election as much as this one) are now turning away from him)


also bronx democrat state senator Ruben Diaz (Puerto Rican) (also for marriage redefinition) also crossed party lines to endorse Turner (there are about 40,000 registered Hispanic voters in this district)

though you might be right on the Irish/Italian catholic vote in this district because they for the most part would have voted for Turner anyway.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 09, 2011, 02:18:21 AM
Quote
It's not like it'd be an earthquake sign of doom for Democrats. I'd take it as a one-off, like the other special elections in New York where the GOPers were the ones falling off a cliff.

the reason for it is the sign of doom for Democrats at least in the north east. (at least if the Republicans even have a half a brain to capitalize on it, which most likely means your right and this defeat will not have a big after effect)

the NY Republican establishment is the dumbest thing in existence (historically too)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 09, 2011, 02:33:16 AM
the NY Republican establishment is the dumbest thing in existence (historically too)


I didn't know that you're part of the Republican establishment.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 09, 2011, 03:16:44 AM
the NY Republican establishment is the dumbest thing in existence (historically too)


I didn't know that you're part of the Republican establishment.

sorry for insulting you (I didn't realize that you would be so upset that I forgot about you)
so here's the correction
the NY Republican establishment is the dumbest thing in existence outside of Greece (historically too)

the fact is that this CD is going to a Republican due to marriage redefinition and whether or not you think that makes us bigots (it's OK I think your a bigot) doesn't change the fact that politically the only reason this district is in play is because of weprin's homosexual positions. Bigots or not those are the facts and nothing you said have disproved those facts.

NYC is still for the most part a ethnic city like no other and no ethnicity group (that didn't completely assimilate in to the WASP (which today seemed to change it's protestantism for liberalism) north eastern culture) is in a favor of this trash.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on September 09, 2011, 06:09:37 AM
Can we rule out that NY Jew isn't a new edition of Coburn Fan? Just asking.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 09, 2011, 06:44:23 AM
Can we rule out that NY Jew isn't a new edition of Coburn Fan? Just asking.

????????????????
I do like Tom Coburn if that's what you meant


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2011, 07:34:33 AM
Some statistics for the district (2005-2009 ACS)...

White: 68.6%
Black: 4.7%
Hispanic: 15.8%
Asian: 17.5% (of which 50.7% are Chinese and 24.7% Indian)
Median Age: 40.2
Over 65: 15.9%
Percentage with BA/etc or higher: 36.4%
Born Abroad: 40.2% (of which 64.6% are citizens)
Anglophone: 48.2%
Italian: 12.6%
Irish: 8.1%
Russian: 7.8%
German: 5.1%
Polish: 4.8%
Median HH Income: $57,024
Economically Inactive: 39.4%
Managerial/Professional occupations: 38.6%
Production/Construction/Service/Etc occupations: 33.9%
Public Sector Workers: 16.6%
Employed in Education/Health/Etc: 25.4%
Employed in Finance/Etc: 11.5%
Employed in Manufacturing: 5.1%
Households earning less than $35,000: 32.1%
Households earning more than $100,000: 24.6%
Percentage Renting: 48.7%


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on September 09, 2011, 08:31:41 AM
What is it with NY machine candidates in recent special elections?

Anyway, the machine is worth more here than in most other places, but this is also one of those types of areas where if the voters are really against you, the machine won't matter much.  Follow?
...because the machine are voters too. And they can turn out their folks to vote against you instead of for you, if the "normal" voters share their grievance.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 09, 2011, 08:33:13 AM
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/09/poll-republican-2.php

Republican Bob Turner holds a six-point lead in next week's special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., according to a new Siena College poll released early Friday that shows voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic district are poised to deliver a stinging rebuke to President Obama and his party.

Turner leads Democratic Assemblyman David Weprin in the poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. Six percent of likely voters in the Sept. 13th election are undecided.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on September 09, 2011, 08:34:44 AM
Can we rule out that NY Jew isn't a new edition of Coburn Fan? Just asking.

????????????????
I do like Tom Coburn if that's what you meant
Nah, he meant some past poster.



Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 09, 2011, 09:33:32 AM
http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf
many Jews who say Israel is the main reason for there vote, are really saying marriage redefinition but it wasn't a listed choice (and other doesn't accomplish anything, but voting for your second reason does) (look at 90% of the Orthodox Jews who are voting for Turner based on Israel also say in the same statement the marriage but they are to afraid to mention it straight up)
In addition the 6% of jews who say other I can almost guarantee that there biggest issue was marriage redefinition.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 09, 2011, 09:48:45 AM
Can we rule out that NY Jew isn't a new edition of Coburn Fan? Just asking.

????????????????
I do like Tom Coburn if that's what you meant
Nah, he meant some past poster.


I assumed that but I couldn't find a poster with that name. (I was curious what this person did that I'm getting compared to)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on September 09, 2011, 09:59:52 AM
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=3403;sa=showPosts for a sample of the posts involved.

Why the socks?

(...)

The views expressed by Coburn, the imbecile, and KTC, the rather more intelligent sock, are accurate portrayals of the arguments, conversations and communications I still receive on a regular basis, from some of these folks.  I went to church with these people for many decades. I went to college with no small number of them.  More than a few members of my family could easily pass for KTC and, at least one, for Coburn.




Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 09, 2011, 10:10:10 AM
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=3403;sa=showPosts for a sample of the posts involved.

Why the socks?

(...)

The views expressed by Coburn, the imbecile, and KTC, the rather more intelligent sock, are accurate portrayals of the arguments, conversations and communications I still receive on a regular basis, from some of these folks.  I went to church with these people for many decades. I went to college with no small number of them.  More than a few members of my family could easily pass for KTC and, at least one, for Coburn.



thank you


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 09, 2011, 10:12:25 AM
A Democratic partisan just emailed me to say "Weprin's going down like a lesbian in love"


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 09, 2011, 10:24:22 AM
Dave Weigel

DEVELOPING: A confused David Weprin to spend rest of #NY09 campaign shaking hands outside Fenway, in the cold.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2011, 10:33:48 AM
Wow, Weprin is Coakley 2.0 on steroids:

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/culture/2011/09/3282998/three-days-911-dccc-runs-bob-turner-rich-ad-showing-plane-buzzing-ma


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 09, 2011, 10:43:02 AM
Let's have a moment of silence in memory of the dick that made this special election possible.


Thank you.


In all seriousness, I'm still not sold that we'll win this.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on September 09, 2011, 10:45:25 AM
Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 09, 2011, 10:51:10 AM
Wow, Weprin is Coakley 2.0 on steroids:

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/culture/2011/09/3282998/three-days-911-dccc-runs-bob-turner-rich-ad-showing-plane-buzzing-ma

Yes, this district is much more Democratic than Massachusetts as a whole is in terms of registration. 2008 Presidential results notwithstanding.

Weiner and Schumer used to get 70-80% here.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2011, 10:52:37 AM
Let's have a moment of silence in memory of the dick that made this special election possible.


Thank you.


In all seriousness, I'm still not sold that we'll win this.

I´m rather sold:

A) The Democratic incumbent had a sex scandal and has now sub-10% approvals.

B) The Democratic replacement candidate thinks the current debt is about 1/4 of what it really is.

C) The DCCC cuts an ad involving a plane flying above the Manhattan skyline on the 10-year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

D) Probably other retarded things I cannot recall now, because I have only decided to follow this race as of yesterday.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 09, 2011, 10:55:04 AM
Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

When you carve out the minority seats, isn't there an Anglo seat area left to fill in Brooklyn/Queens?  And if Turner wins, why would the Pubbies agree to lose two of their guys?  Wouldn't they  be better off just having the courts draw the lines?  The issue is what kind of Anglo seat would be naturally drawn in the area if done by someone non partisan holding the mouse?

To my pea brain, if we have an upset here, that upsets the redistricting apple cart.  Moreover, depending on the lines, Turner if he wins now might have some potential to hold the seat for some time.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 09, 2011, 10:59:55 AM
Obviously, it's getting cut not matter who wins it, it's all about what is easiest to remove.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on September 09, 2011, 11:09:02 AM
Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

When you carve out the minority seats, isn't there an Anglo seat area left to fill in Brooklyn/Queens?  
Not really. Depending how you draw it, you might get it to where it's becoming arguable that the 5th and not the 9th is gone, but that's about it.
Quote
And if Turner wins, why would the Pubbies agree to lose two of their guys?  Wouldn't they  be better off just having the courts draw the lines?  
No - if they do that, they still lose two of their guys, and all their remaining incumbents (and the Dems, of course. And the Dems) are less safe.
Quote
To my pea brain, if we have an upset here, that upsets the redistricting apple cart.  Moreover, depending on the lines, Turner if he wins now might have some potential to hold the seat for some time.
No. You cannot draw a "normally" Republican district here. The votes just aren't there. You can theoretically draw one elsewhere that has some slight overlap, but only if you are ready to run major risks with the VRA with one of the Brooklyn Black seats.
Of course, maybe he can somehow build some kind of personal vote machine and stay in Congress for some time, especially should Ackerman retire, but then I'd have said that about Djou too.

Obviously, this still affects redistricting. R's now have much better arguments for demanding a D head upstate.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 09, 2011, 11:23:40 AM
The 'draw the 9th in Brooklyn entirely' idea that wrangles Borough Park and other territory from the 8th creates a strong McCain district. That said it probably won't translate downballot quite as well anyway, and it creates problems with the Staten Island district.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 09, 2011, 11:45:23 AM
Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

incorrect, I think -- this district was never thought to be on the chopping block before Weiner had his tweetscandal


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 09, 2011, 12:57:02 PM
Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

incorrect, I think -- this district was never thought to be on the chopping block before Weiner had his tweetscandal

But after Weiner had his tweetscandal, conventional wisdom was that whatever Democrat won the NY-09 special election would be out of a job come January 2013. 

If Turner wins, I think the redistricting calculations become more complicated, not less.  It's possible Turner and an Upstate Democrat's seat get axed (probably Hochul, but since she won a R+6 district, it's hard to see how it's even possible to make the seat more Republican).  Or Turner takes over more Republican-friendly territory in Brooklyn (it is possible without hurting the Staten Island seat, which is almost at ideal population in its current lines because Nadler's NY-08 juts into white parts of Brooklyn) and Ackerman loses his seat or faces off against Crowley while a Republican loses an Upstate seat.  If Turner wins, the redistricting fight should be interesting.

By the way, Weprin won't be able to vote for himself.  He doesn't live in NY-09.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2011, 12:58:43 PM
Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

incorrect, I think -- this district was never thought to be on the chopping block before Weiner had his tweetscandal

But after Weiner had his tweetscandal, conventional wisdom was that whatever Democrat won the NY-09 special election would be out of a job come January 2013.  

If Turner wins, I think the redistricting calculations become more complicated, not less.  It's possible Turner and an Upstate Democrat's seat get axed (probably Hochul, but since she won a R+6 district, it's hard to see how it's even possible to make the seat more Republican).  Or Turner takes over more Republican-friendly territory in Brooklyn (it is possible without hurting the Staten Island seat, which is almost at ideal population in its current lines because Nadler's NY-08 juts into white parts of Brooklyn) and Ackerman loses his seat or faces off against Crowley while a Republican loses an Upstate seat.  If Turner wins, the redistricting fight should be interesting.

By the way, Weprin won't be able to vote for himself.  He doesn't live in NY-09.

If he doesn't live there, how can he run there ?

Aren't you required to live in the district that you are running in ?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 09, 2011, 01:08:44 PM
for federal office you only need to live in the state

Kathy Hochul didn't live in NY-26 either, but, like Weprin, she represented part of the district in elected office


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2011, 01:55:39 PM
What a remarkably sh!tty candidate and what a remarkably sh!tty campaign. Are they actually trying to lose?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 09, 2011, 01:58:18 PM
What a remarkably sh!tty candidate and what a remarkably sh!tty campaign. Are they actually trying to lose?

more stuff on his campaign: http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9998757180/why-is-bob-turner-winning


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2011, 02:00:58 PM
Weiner and Schumer used to get 70-80% here.

Not really true; it was (and still ought to be) a safe seat, but not to that extent. Weiner never got close to 80% in a contested election.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 09, 2011, 02:04:16 PM
Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

When you carve out the minority seats, isn't there an Anglo seat area left to fill in Brooklyn/Queens?  And if Turner wins, why would the Pubbies agree to lose two of their guys?  Wouldn't they  be better off just having the courts draw the lines?  The issue is what kind of Anglo seat would be naturally drawn in the area if done by someone non partisan holding the mouse?

To my pea brain, if we have an upset here, that upsets the redistricting apple cart.  Moreover, depending on the lines, Turner if he wins now might have some potential to hold the seat for some time.

one that is ten times more Conservative then this one right now the reason the districts in NY look really weird is not just because of the voting rights act but because of the fact that they gerrymandered the jewish areas in southern Brooklyn to an extent that surpasses the deep south during Jimmy Crow.  Right now the Contiguous Orthodox Jewish areas in Brooklyn (I'm defining this as EDs that are over 50% Orthodox) have 6 congressional districts (8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th (though I admit this is only a very small portion in this ED), 13th) and the Jewish neighborhood of Flatbush now has 5 Congressional districts (I looked around the country and I couldn't find any other neighborhood that even has 3 Congressional districts)

 that's due to orthodox Jewish populations strong social Conservative positions and strong Israel support has been in many elections voting Republican ever since at least the 80's (right now there are EDs that can flip 90% either way depending on numerous factors) (Borough Park had a Contiguous area with 50,00 people that voted for McCain at over a 90% rate (though they decided to put this area in to Nadler's seat to dilute the Jewish vote))

if you get rid of partisan redistricting and combine the Orthodox areas of Brooklyn and don't make any strange shapes moving the district in to northern Brooklyn but combine the orthodox jewish areas with the overwhelmingly Jewish Russian areas and catholic areas in Brooklyn, Rockways and Howard Beach this district rivals almost any other Conservative district in the country (though it might still go to a democrat like Hikind)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2011, 02:15:16 PM
isn't there an Anglo seat area left to fill in Brooklyn/Queens?

Given that this district isn't majority English speaking, how can it be an Anglo seat? :)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 09, 2011, 05:36:24 PM
Welp, the Democrats really screwed this one up, I guess it was inevitable that they'd be the ones to royally mess up a special election in New York for once.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2011, 06:11:51 PM
Why not just run Manny Celler? If he won his physical remains would still be more intelligent than a majority of the current New York delegation.

I maintain that this was a fundamentally good idea.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 09, 2011, 06:21:39 PM
Welp, the Democrats really screwed this one up, I guess it was inevitable that they'd be the ones to royally mess up a special election in New York for once.

This isn't over yet.  Weprin and the DCCC's commercials are in heavy rotation in the NYC TV market.  I have yet to see a Turner ad.  If Weprin scares enough seniors with his Turner wants to cut your social security schtick, he might pull it out.  And there's the little issue of the Democrats having a good political machine, unlike the Republicans.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 09, 2011, 06:45:55 PM
Welp, the Democrats really screwed this one up, I guess it was inevitable that they'd be the ones to royally mess up a special election in New York for once.

This isn't over yet.  Weprin and the DCCC's commercials are in heavy rotation in the NYC TV market.  I have yet to see a Turner ad.  If Weprin scares enough seniors with his Turner wants to cut your social security schtick, he might pull it out.  And there's the little issue of the Democrats having a good political machine, unlike the Republicans.

Turner doesn't have the cash for those ads.. but the DCCC's ads would have been best to define Turner early on, instead of at the last second


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: redcommander on September 09, 2011, 06:46:15 PM
Social security probably won't fool voters. Weprin is in deep crap for his position on gay marriage with the district's Orthodox Jewish voters. I'd like to see PPP's poll on this, since they were pretty accurate predicting Hahn would win by the margin she did. Being 6 points down the weekend before an election is a pretty steep climb for Weprin to pull off a win.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 09, 2011, 06:50:42 PM
Social security probably won't fool voters. Wepren is in deep crap for his position on gay marriage with the district's Orthodox Jewish voters. I'd like to see PPP's poll on this, since they were pretty accurate predicting Hahn would win by the margin she did. Being 6 points down the weekend before an election is a pretty steep climb for Wepren to pull off a win.

the # of the district's Orthodox voters who voted for Anthony Weiner but are voting against David Weprin are probably overestimated. Weiner almost lost the heavily Russian & Orthodox Brooklyn part of NY-9 -- I think by less than 1% -- despite winning by 20% overall.  Hell, Weiner lost his old Brooklyn City Council district.

As for PPP, their polling of Orthodox voters is obviously limited on Friday and Saturday evenings, but from their first day...

()

gay marriage is certainly getting Weprin in trouble, but he'd also be in trouble with his base if he voted against it


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 09, 2011, 06:54:44 PM
About the Orthodox thing, I think it's mostly that people just know that Weiner's district was in south Brooklyn and Queens and jump to conclusions without checking anything.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Napoleon on September 09, 2011, 07:01:41 PM
Eliminate Hayworth and Ackerman for the best mutual results.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: redcommander on September 09, 2011, 07:08:41 PM
Can redistricting please get rid of Charlie Rangel already? I don't think it's fair necessarily for Hochul, and whoever wins the 9th district to get eliminated seeing that there are corrupt fossils in the NY delegation that should be thrown out instead.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Napoleon on September 09, 2011, 07:13:36 PM
Can redistricting please get rid of Charlie Rangel already? I don't think it's fair necessarily for Hochul, and whoever wins the 9th district to get eliminated seeing that there are corrupt fossils in the NY delegation that should be thrown out instead.

VRA so not really.



Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 09, 2011, 07:18:28 PM
http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf
many Jews who say Israel is the main reason for there vote, are really saying marriage redefinition but it wasn't a listed choice (and other doesn't accomplish anything, but voting for your second reason does) (look at 90% of the Orthodox Jews who are voting for Turner based on Israel also say in the same statement the marriage but they are to afraid to mention it straight up)
In addition the 6% of jews who say other I can almost guarantee that there biggest issue was marriage redefinition.

I am very concerned for you and the level at which you seem to obsess over gays getting married. Perhaps you could use a vacation?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 09, 2011, 07:20:23 PM
Welp, the Democrats really screwed this one up, I guess it was inevitable that they'd be the ones to royally mess up a special election in New York for once.

This isn't over yet.  Weprin and the DCCC's commercials are in heavy rotation in the NYC TV market.  I have yet to see a Turner ad.  If Weprin scares enough seniors with his Turner wants to cut your social security schtick, he might pull it out.  And there's the little issue of the Democrats having a good political machine, unlike the Republicans.

Turner doesn't have the cash for those ads.. but the DCCC's ads would have been best to define Turner early on, instead of at the last second

Same problem Democrats had with Scott Brown. They didn't do anything to define him until it was way too late to do so.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Talleyrand on September 09, 2011, 07:27:45 PM
Can redistricting please get rid of Charlie Rangel already? I don't think it's fair necessarily for Hochul, and whoever wins the 9th district to get eliminated seeing that there are corrupt fossils in the NY delegation that should be thrown out instead.

VRA so not really.



Um, if they considered eliminating Yvette Clarke's seat, why can't they eliminate Rangel's? Geographic reasons?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 09, 2011, 07:57:13 PM
Can redistricting please get rid of Charlie Rangel already? I don't think it's fair necessarily for Hochul, and whoever wins the 9th district to get eliminated seeing that there are corrupt fossils in the NY delegation that should be thrown out instead.

VRA so not really.



Um, if they considered eliminating Yvette Clarke's seat, why can't they eliminate Rangel's? Geographic reasons?

No.  Geography defines Rangel's CD. It can't go anywhere, because it is boxed in by whites and Hispanics and rivers and Central Park. It's only about 30% black anyway. 


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: redcommander on September 09, 2011, 08:01:43 PM
The legislature could just expand Serrano's district into Harlem and eliminate Rangel that way.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Joe Republic on September 09, 2011, 08:06:47 PM
The legislature could just expand Serrano's district into Harlem and eliminate Rangel that way.

Yeah, putting blacks and Hispanics together will totally comply with the VRA, and not piss anybody off at all.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 09, 2011, 10:15:58 PM
The legislature could just expand Serrano's district into Harlem and eliminate Rangel that way.

Yeah, putting blacks and Hispanics together will totally comply with the VRA, and not piss anybody off at all.

There aren't enough blacks there for there to be a black district.

They should make it a Hispanic vs Black in the primary district. It makes the most sense. I don't see why you would add it in with the wealthy white areas of Manhattan.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 09, 2011, 10:24:55 PM
I believe Rangel's district has to at least give somewhat of an opportunity for black voters to elect a candidate of their choice. That was part of what happened in California redistricting, districts with high numbers of black voters were drawn, not 50%, but still enough for those voters to have a choice.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 09, 2011, 11:18:43 PM
I believe Rangel's district has to at least give somewhat of an opportunity for black voters to elect a candidate of their choice. That was part of what happened in California redistricting, districts with high numbers of black voters were drawn, not 50%, but still enough for those voters to have a choice.

I just drew a 36% VAP Black and 46% VAP Hispanic district. I excluded Washington Heights from the district and added in mixed areas of Bronx. I would think considering citizenship (might be less of a factor here than in LA) and turnout, it would be a fair fight in the primary.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: bgwah on September 09, 2011, 11:32:51 PM
NY has sure had a lot of special elections lately.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Joe Republic on September 09, 2011, 11:44:14 PM
NY has sure had a lot of special elections lately.

Their congressmen seem to have a habit of either getting themselves appointed to better jobs, or taking naked pictures of themselves and putting them on the internet.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 10, 2011, 01:58:25 AM
http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf
many Jews who say Israel is the main reason for there vote, are really saying marriage redefinition but it wasn't a listed choice (and other doesn't accomplish anything, but voting for your second reason does) (look at 90% of the Orthodox Jews who are voting for Turner based on Israel also say in the same statement the marriage but they are to afraid to mention it straight up)
In addition the 6% of jews who say other I can almost guarantee that there biggest issue was marriage redefinition.

I am very concerned for you and the level at which you seem to obsess over gays getting married. Perhaps you could use a vacation?

He is gay.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on September 10, 2011, 03:55:43 AM
the districts in NY look really weird is not just because of the voting rights act but because of the fact that they gerrymandered the jewish areas in southern Brooklyn to an extent that surpasses the deep south during Jimmy Crow.  Right now the Contiguous Orthodox Jewish areas in Brooklyn (I'm defining this as EDs that are over 50% Orthodox) have 6 congressional districts (8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th (though I admit this is only a very small portion in this ED), 13th) and the Jewish neighborhood of Flatbush now has 5 Congressional districts (I looked around the country and I couldn't find any other neighborhood that even has 3 Congressional districts)
The 12th? Seriously?
Otherwise, of course, yeah they're carved up something ridic. The Dem-voting White areas in Brooklyn are no better, of course.

Redistricting can actually get rid of Charlie Rangel, btw - not sure they'll do it, but the logical thing for this district to do is cross the Harlem River and become even more of a Hispanic district with Black influence than it is already (what would be excised would be the White parts).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on September 10, 2011, 03:56:29 AM
Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

incorrect, I think -- this district was never thought to be on the chopping block before Weiner had his tweetscandal
That's only because Weiner was considered too important to be eliminated. The whole point of the debate back then was pretty much how to avoid having to eliminate him.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: redcommander on September 10, 2011, 04:06:03 AM
I think we should also take into consideration that a sizable portion of people in Serrano and Rangel's districts who mark down Hispanic are also African American. Many Dominican immigrants are racially Black, but still ethnically Hispanic.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: redcommander on September 10, 2011, 04:06:42 AM
NY has sure had a lot of special elections lately.

Their congressmen seem to have a habit of either getting themselves appointed to better jobs, or taking naked pictures of themselves and putting them on the internet.

I wonder which Congressman will be next. :P


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Guderian on September 10, 2011, 04:40:14 AM
NY has sure had a lot of special elections lately.

Their congressmen seem to have a habit of either getting themselves appointed to better jobs, or taking naked pictures of themselves and putting them on the internet.

And it has to be Kirsten Gillibrand who was appointed to better job and Anthony Weiner who took naked pictures and not the other way around.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 10, 2011, 08:25:12 AM
I think we should also take into consideration that a sizable portion of people in Serrano and Rangel's districts who mark down Hispanic are also African American. Many Dominican immigrants are racially Black, but still ethnically Hispanic.

I was just about to mention that, it is a really valid point.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 10, 2011, 09:36:37 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=27pzclece3k#!


Hikind endorses Turner.

This video of course shows why.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uglr9NVU3LA


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on September 10, 2011, 10:07:40 AM
"If only we were to treat each other the way the Torah talks about it."

I agree, it would be nice if children were publicly executed for talking back to their parents.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 10, 2011, 10:07:55 AM
My prediction for NY-09:

54.19% Turner (R)
45.24% Weprim (D)
  0.57% Others


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Talleyrand on September 10, 2011, 10:21:01 AM
My prediction for NY-09:

54.19% Turner (R)
45.24% Weprim (D)
  0.57% Others

Turner will win, but I think it will be closer than that.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 10, 2011, 10:28:31 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=27pzclece3k#!


Hikind endorses Turner.

This video of course shows why.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uglr9NVU3LA

As the Torah says about gay marriage:

Quote


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: © tweed on September 10, 2011, 11:30:17 AM
Turner would have to hand this back over next year right?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 10, 2011, 12:28:31 PM
Turner would have to hand this back over next year right?

redistricting could easily mean that this one will simply be removed


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 10, 2011, 01:38:03 PM
One bit of trivia: if Turner wins, he'll be one of the oldest freshmen in the history of the House of Representatives. This guy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Crockett,_Jr.) seems to have been the oldest freshman ever, but Turner, at 70 years old, would probably be second after him.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 10, 2011, 04:27:29 PM
I was phonebanking for Weprin for two hours today. We definitely aren't winning this election.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 10, 2011, 04:28:20 PM
I was phonebanking for Weprin for two hours today. We definitely aren't winning this election.

Explain.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 10, 2011, 04:33:22 PM
I was phonebanking for Weprin for two hours today. We definitely aren't winning this election.

Explain.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 10, 2011, 05:40:24 PM
isn't it obvious? everyone that picked up was for Turner



Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 10, 2011, 06:14:53 PM
Oh, God, I didn't realize it was this bad:

Quote
"I'm not worried," said Weprin. "We're going to have about 1,000 people in the street. We've had overwhelming support from every labor union. We're going to have everybody out on Tuesday, and that's going to make the difference…. The only poll that counts is the poll on Election Day.

When someone has to trot out that ol' line ... man


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 10, 2011, 06:17:30 PM
yeah, hah, I noticed that too.

Weprin's done like dinner folks.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: redcommander on September 10, 2011, 06:25:46 PM
So I take it the only special election where the result isn't all but over now is the OR-1 one right?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 10, 2011, 07:31:17 PM
So I take it the only special election where the result isn't all but over now is the OR-1 one right?

Weprin might still have a better chance than the GOP in Oregon


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Joe Republic on September 10, 2011, 07:35:55 PM
This "Dov Hikind" person seems like a real piece of work.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 10, 2011, 07:41:51 PM
This "Dov Hikind" person seems like a real piece of work.

He's an interesting fellow, I'll be listening to him interviewing Turner at at 11pm on his radio show tonight


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 10, 2011, 08:03:04 PM
isn't it obvious? everyone that picked up was for Turner



Not everyone. But about half. Half of registered Democrats.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 10, 2011, 08:14:32 PM
This "Dov Hikind" person seems like a real piece of work.

I think he is a survivor of the concentration camps in Germany.  Maybe I have that mixed up, but he is really hard wired.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Joe Republic on September 10, 2011, 08:18:46 PM
This "Dov Hikind" person seems like a real piece of work.

I think he is a survivor of the concentration camps in Germany.  Maybe I have that mixed up, but he is really hard wired.

He was born in 1950, so that seems... unlikely.  :P


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 10, 2011, 08:23:48 PM
This "Dov Hikind" person seems like a real piece of work.

I think he is a survivor of the concentration camps in Germany.  Maybe I have that mixed up, but he is really hard wired.

He was born in 1950, so that seems... unlikely.  :P

Well back to the drawing board then. I should look up his bio. Isn't he a Dem assemblyman who votes often with the GOP?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Smash255 on September 10, 2011, 08:34:48 PM
This "Dov Hikind" person seems like a real piece of work.

I think he is a survivor of the concentration camps in Germany.  Maybe I have that mixed up, but he is really hard wired.

He was born in 1950, so that seems... unlikely.  :P

Well back to the drawing board then. I should look up his bio. Isn't he a Dem assemblyman who votes often with the GOP?

Yes, he has endorsed Republicans in the past including Pataki and W.  He is very socially conservative, perhaps even to the right of Diaz regarding gays.  His parents were Holocaust survivors IIRC, so that might be what you were thinking of.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on September 10, 2011, 08:50:45 PM
Was he born in a DP camp maybe?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 10, 2011, 09:00:23 PM
This "Dov Hikind" person seems like a real piece of work.

I think he is a survivor of the concentration camps in Germany.  Maybe I have that mixed up, but he is really hard wired.

He was born in 1950, so that seems... unlikely.  :P

Well back to the drawing board then. I should look up his bio. Isn't he a Dem assemblyman who votes often with the GOP?

his mother was a Holocaust survivor


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on September 10, 2011, 09:08:59 PM
When was the last time a significant part of this had a GOP representative? It has obviously engulfed parts of several former districts as NY has lost a large number of seats. So like NY-23, it would be different for different parts of it.



Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: redcommander on September 10, 2011, 09:13:33 PM
When was the last time a significant part of this had a GOP representative? It has obviously engulfed parts of several former districts as NY has lost a large number of seats. So like NY-23, it would be different for different parts of it.



1923. The district also was represented by Geraldine Ferraro and Chuck Schumer before Weiner was elected.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 10, 2011, 09:24:29 PM
When was the last time a significant part of this had a GOP representative? It has obviously engulfed parts of several former districts as NY has lost a large number of seats. So like NY-23, it would be different for different parts of it.



Seymour Halpern, perhaps?

Need to find the maps of the districts in 1970, but at the time it appears to be 'parts of Queens'.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 10, 2011, 09:44:46 PM
The district only dates from the 1992 redistricting. New York districts are apt to change a lot so you have to be careful about these things, but certainly parts of the Brooklyn portion have had a Democratic Congresscritter since Manny Celler gained what was then NY-10 in 1922 (so 1923). Probably; it's hard to be sure about that kind of thing. I would be amazed if there haven't been Republicans representing the Queens section of the district at much later dates.

Of course we have a map of NYC districts in the 1980s posted on this forum (here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=126420.msg2728873#msg2728873)) so it should be possible to track incumbents back from that... maybe.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 10, 2011, 10:50:38 PM
http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf
many Jews who say Israel is the main reason for there vote, are really saying marriage redefinition but it wasn't a listed choice (and other doesn't accomplish anything, but voting for your second reason does) (look at 90% of the Orthodox Jews who are voting for Turner based on Israel also say in the same statement the marriage but they are to afraid to mention it straight up)
In addition the 6% of jews who say other I can almost guarantee that there biggest issue was marriage redefinition.

I am very concerned for you and the level at which you seem to obsess over gays getting married. Perhaps you could use a vacation?

He is gay.
figures a person who thinks anyone who is against this sacrilege is a bigot would also automatically jump to this conclusion.

If you want the reason here it is

here's a quote from Jewish tradition (which I follow and believe so if you want to understand where I;) God did not decree (happened way before the flood but ) the flood until man started writing marriage documents to other men.

notice there just was a hurricane in NY and my community had 3 deaths out of (I think) 4 deaths in the state.

Now assuming Jewish tradition is a given, logically how can I come to any other conclusion but to fight it strongly.

(What I wrote above is less then the cliff notes version of my position but it should suffice)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 10, 2011, 10:54:16 PM
http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf
many Jews who say Israel is the main reason for there vote, are really saying marriage redefinition but it wasn't a listed choice (and other doesn't accomplish anything, but voting for your second reason does) (look at 90% of the Orthodox Jews who are voting for Turner based on Israel also say in the same statement the marriage but they are to afraid to mention it straight up)
In addition the 6% of jews who say other I can almost guarantee that there biggest issue was marriage redefinition.

I am very concerned for you and the level at which you seem to obsess over gays getting married. Perhaps you could use a vacation?

He is gay.
figures a person who thinks anyone who is against this sacrilege is a bigot would also automatically jump to this conclusion.

If you want the reason here it is

here's a quote from Jewish tradition (which I follow and believe so if you want to understand where I;) God did not decree (happened way before the flood but ) the flood until man started writing marriage documents to other men.

notice there just was a hurricane in NY and my community had 3 deaths out of (I think) 4 deaths in the state.

Now assuming Jewish tradition is a given, logically how can I come to any other conclusion but to fight it strongly.

(What I wrote above is less then the cliff notes version of my position but it should suffice)
are you trolling us?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 10, 2011, 11:59:47 PM
This "Dov Hikind" person seems like a real piece of work.

I think he is a survivor of the concentration camps in Germany.  Maybe I have that mixed up, but he is really hard wired.
he's a son of a Auschwitz survivor.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 11, 2011, 12:10:04 AM
http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf
many Jews who say Israel is the main reason for there vote, are really saying marriage redefinition but it wasn't a listed choice (and other doesn't accomplish anything, but voting for your second reason does) (look at 90% of the Orthodox Jews who are voting for Turner based on Israel also say in the same statement the marriage but they are to afraid to mention it straight up)
In addition the 6% of jews who say other I can almost guarantee that there biggest issue was marriage redefinition.

I am very concerned for you and the level at which you seem to obsess over gays getting married. Perhaps you could use a vacation?

He is gay.
figures a person who thinks anyone who is against this sacrilege is a bigot would also automatically jump to this conclusion.

If you want the reason here it is

here's a quote from Jewish tradition (which I follow and believe so if you want to understand where I;) God did not decree (happened way before the flood but ) the flood until man started writing marriage documents to other men.

notice there just was a hurricane in NY and my community had 3 deaths out of (I think) 4 deaths in the state.

Now assuming Jewish tradition is a given, logically how can I come to any other conclusion but to fight it strongly.

(What I wrote above is less then the cliff notes version of my position but it should suffice)
are you trolling us?

no but someone who accuses me of something that according to Judaism deserves the death penalty is trolling.

What I'm doing is defending myself for his foolish accusation.  (I didn't bring up my theology only as a defense to why I'm strong on a specific point which happens to be one of the biggest issues in the race this thread is about)

If I'm trolling so is both the person I'm responding to and the one he's responding to.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 11, 2011, 12:45:50 AM

no but someone who accuses me of something that according to Judaism deserves the death penalty is trolling.

What I'm doing is defending myself for his foolish accusation.  (I didn't bring up my theology only as a defense to why I'm strong on a specific point which happens to be one of the biggest issues in the race this thread is about)

If I'm trolling so is both the person I'm responding to and the one he's responding to.

Fine, but why (on a social, not personal, level) do you care?

Related question: Did the Book of Ruth get deleted from the version of the Tanakh used by reactionary maniacs when I wasn't paying attention?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 11, 2011, 01:02:23 AM

no but someone who accuses me of something that according to Judaism deserves the death penalty is trolling.

What I'm doing is defending myself for his foolish accusation.  (I didn't bring up my theology only as a defense to why I'm strong on a specific point which happens to be one of the biggest issues in the race this thread is about)

If I'm trolling so is both the person I'm responding to and the one he's responding to.

Fine, but why (on a social, not personal, level) do you care?

Related question: Did the Book of Ruth get deleted from the version of the Tanakh used by reactionary maniacs when I wasn't paying attention?

I answered that because this type of legislation is one of the biggest fronts to god possible.
 (I can give many other reasons like kicking people out of their jobs as Town Clerks for not betraying their religion)

what does Rus have to do with anything?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 11, 2011, 02:35:10 PM
I answered that because this type of legislation is one of the biggest fronts to god possible.
 (I can give many other reasons like kicking people out of their jobs as Town Clerks for not betraying their religion)

It's not betraying anybody's religion to sign civil documents unless they lead to something objectively sinful happening. Discrimination on the basis of sex or gender is an example of something that's objectively sinful. It was sinful then and it is sinful now. The only differences are the information that we now have, and the material conditions that allow us to have it.

Quote
what does Rus have to do with anything?

It's so cute when people feign ignorance of what's going on in that book.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: nclib on September 11, 2011, 02:40:18 PM
one that is ten times more Conservative then this one right now the reason the districts in NY look really weird is not just because of the voting rights act but because of the fact that they gerrymandered the jewish areas in southern Brooklyn to an extent that surpasses the deep south during Jimmy Crow.  Right now the Contiguous Orthodox Jewish areas in Brooklyn (I'm defining this as EDs that are over 50% Orthodox) have 6 congressional districts (8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th (though I admit this is only a very small portion in this ED), 13th) and the Jewish neighborhood of Flatbush now has 5 Congressional districts (I looked around the country and I couldn't find any other neighborhood that even has 3 Congressional districts)

 that's due to orthodox Jewish populations strong social Conservative positions and strong Israel support has been in many elections voting Republican ever since at least the 80's (right now there are EDs that can flip 90% either way depending on numerous factors) (Borough Park had a Contiguous area with 50,00 people that voted for McCain at over a 90% rate (though they decided to put this area in to Nadler's seat to dilute the Jewish vote))

Uh, Nadler's CD is easily among the top 10 CD's in % Jewish in the nation.

As for redistricting, Dems should not agree to eliminate NY-9 (if Turner wins) and a Democratic seat upstate. NY-9 under current boundaries is a Lean Dem CD at least, so Dems would be losing both CD's. Upstate can easily shore up Hochul and/or carve up one of the GOP CD's especially with Slaughter's CD overpacked (not for GOP gerry, but for Quinn's incumbency, but the point is the same).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on September 11, 2011, 02:47:44 PM
Quote
what does Rus have to do with anything?

It's so cute when people feign ignorance of what's going on in that book.

()


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 11, 2011, 02:55:11 PM
I answered that because this type of legislation is one of the biggest fronts to god possible.
 (I can give many other reasons like kicking people out of their jobs as Town Clerks for not betraying their religion)

It's not betraying anybody's religion to sign civil documents unless they lead to something objectively sinful happening. Discrimination on the basis of sex or gender is an example of something that's objectively sinful. It was sinful then and it is sinful now. The only differences are the information that we now have, and the material conditions that allow us to have it.
If your religion forbids it according to your religion it's sinfull it's sinful end of story.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on September 11, 2011, 02:57:09 PM
So would it be a sin for a Mormon or Muslim to vote to do something like loosen restrictions on alcohol sales?

That's easily one of my favorite StarTrib editorial cartoons ever by the way, which is why I still remember it easily 8 years after publication.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 11, 2011, 02:57:20 PM
Quote
Quote
what does Rus have to do with anything?

It's so cute when people feign ignorance of what's going on in that book.
site me a pasuk or be quit, you am haraetz rasha.

PS if you dont' understand that your interpretation of anything in the bible says is worthless anyway.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 11, 2011, 02:58:59 PM
It always amazes me how long people are willing to put up with one-note trolls.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 11, 2011, 03:01:37 PM
one that is ten times more Conservative then this one right now the reason the districts in NY look really weird is not just because of the voting rights act but because of the fact that they gerrymandered the jewish areas in southern Brooklyn to an extent that surpasses the deep south during Jimmy Crow.  Right now the Contiguous Orthodox Jewish areas in Brooklyn (I'm defining this as EDs that are over 50% Orthodox) have 6 congressional districts (8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th (though I admit this is only a very small portion in this ED), 13th) and the Jewish neighborhood of Flatbush now has 5 Congressional districts (I looked around the country and I couldn't find any other neighborhood that even has 3 Congressional districts)

 that's due to orthodox Jewish populations strong social Conservative positions and strong Israel support has been in many elections voting Republican ever since at least the 80's (right now there are EDs that can flip 90% either way depending on numerous factors) (Borough Park had a Contiguous area with 50,00 people that voted for McCain at over a 90% rate (though they decided to put this area in to Nadler's seat to dilute the Jewish vote))

Uh, Nadler's CD is easily among the top 10 CD's in % Jewish in the nation.

As for redistricting, Dems should not agree to eliminate NY-9 (if Turner wins) and a Democratic seat upstate. NY-9 under current boundaries is a Lean Dem CD at least, so Dems would be losing both CD's. Upstate can easily shore up Hochul and/or carve up one of the GOP CD's especially with Slaughter's CD overpacked (not for GOP gerry, but for Quinn's incumbency, but the point is the same).

explain to me why the most Contiguous orthodox Jewish area in the world outside of Isreal (that is a little more then half the size of a CD) is divided in to 6 Congressional districts.

If this was a black area everyone would have screamed racism years ago.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 11, 2011, 03:07:26 PM
Quote
Quote
what does Rus have to do with anything?

It's so cute when people feign ignorance of what's going on in that book.
site me a pasuk or be quit, you am haraetz rasha.

PS if you dont' understand that your interpretation of anything in the bible says is worthless anyway.

''Am ha-aretz rasha' is kind of an absurd thing to call me, since I'm not Jewish and as such can't be 'am ha-aretz, unless you're using the term in a way I'm unfamiliar with--possible, I admit. And rasha is meaningless coming from you. If anybody is a rasha here it's the one who cares more about policing the way other Jews (and all goyim, for that matter) live their lives than about actually helping people. It would be slightly understandable if you were a reb, but I somehow doubt you are.

Pasuk: Ruth 1.16-17; 4.15; 4.17. I apologise if the chapter and verse divisions work differently in Jewish Bibles; if you need help you can search a Christian one online pretty easily (though I am sorry if you have to do that). I know what the conventional interpretations here are, and they're legitimate, but you can't deny that there are some questions raised there (or, if you do, you're hilarious).

That said, I do agree with you on the way New York City is redistricted. The Orthodox Jews are an obvious community of interest. Though, it needs to be said, while most Orthodox Jews I've met certainly agree with you on this substantively, they're not as creepily obsessive about it. This is because being an Orthodox Jew is a religion (among other things, like an ethnicity and a cultural identification), not a membership in some weird coterie of like-minded bigots.

ETA: You misspelled 'cite'.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on September 11, 2011, 03:08:33 PM
That's not fair, he has two notes: marriage and gerrymandering.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 11, 2011, 03:10:35 PM


That's easily one of my favorite StarTrib editorial cartoons ever by the way, which is why I still remember it easily 8 years after publication.

after seeing your so called proof
all I can think to say is what her decedent said
hevel havaliem amar koheles hevel havaliem hakol havel.
once again if you don't know what that means then your so called biblical scholarship is worse then any 8 year old yeshiva student.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 11, 2011, 03:10:53 PM
Sigh...

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0911/In_leaked_custody_filing_heedless_Weprin_dirty_politics_alleged.html?showall


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 11, 2011, 03:13:57 PM
So would it be a sin for a Mormon or Muslim to vote to do something like loosen restrictions on alcohol sales?

ask a mormon or muslim weather or not a non mormon or muslim can't drink to get your answer.
now if a persons religion forbids them to do anything to help,recognize, or participate in a so called wedding then that would be sinful.
(and you say I'm dumb)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Joe Republic on September 11, 2011, 03:20:38 PM
Just a heads up:  Any more religious crap in this thread from now on will be split off and sent to the R&P board, and infraction points doled out along the way.  This thread is for discussing the NY-09 special election, not retarded shit about how the gheys brought Hurricane Irene to New York.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 11, 2011, 03:46:06 PM
back to the point the fact that jews are upset with this vote weather or not we're all bigots will make Turner the winner of this election.
Ruben Diaz's endorsement will also help

PS: I didn't see the warning when started typing my previous comment.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on September 11, 2011, 05:47:12 PM
I created this thread in the hopes that we could all discuss Weprin v. Turner, not one religion v. other religion.

How 'bout some predictions?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 11, 2011, 06:26:10 PM
Argue about these things elsewhere please.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 11, 2011, 06:26:49 PM
Death points for J.J.!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook on September 11, 2011, 06:36:54 PM
Argue about these things elsewhere please.

Someone made a thread in R&P but it was deleted soon after.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 11, 2011, 06:54:06 PM
I can understand NY Jew's point on the effect of Weprin's stand will turn off Orthodox Jewish voters, without agreeing with the underlying morality of it.  His view is probably representative of most Orthodox voters, which makes up a reasonable percentage of the electorate in this district.

Further, I'd expect it to energize the Orthodox Jewish electorate and I expect to turn out in higher numbers that the non Orthodox electorate.

The polling was showing Turner with a lead, and I'd expect it to hold.

(How, that for a prediction?)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 11, 2011, 08:57:13 PM
PPP is going to release their poll in about an hour.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 11, 2011, 09:01:12 PM
Just repeating an earlier post because... you know...

Some statistics for the district (2005-2009 ACS)...

White: 68.6%
Black: 4.7%
Hispanic: 15.8%
Asian: 17.5% (of which 50.7% are Chinese and 24.7% Indian)
Median Age: 40.2
Over 65: 15.9%
Percentage with BA/etc or higher: 36.4%
Born Abroad: 40.2% (of which 64.6% are citizens)
Anglophone: 48.2%
Italian: 12.6%
Irish: 8.1%
Russian: 7.8%
German: 5.1%
Polish: 4.8%
Median HH Income: $57,024
Economically Inactive: 39.4%
Managerial/Professional occupations: 38.6%
Production/Construction/Service/Etc occupations: 33.9%
Public Sector Workers: 16.6%
Employed in Education/Health/Etc: 25.4%
Employed in Finance/Etc: 11.5%
Employed in Manufacturing: 5.1%
Households earning less than $35,000: 32.1%
Households earning more than $100,000: 24.6%
Percentage Renting: 48.7%


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 11, 2011, 09:41:40 PM
PPP says Obama's approval in NY-09 is 31%. Oof.


Title: Is the President really doing robo-calls for Weprin?
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 11, 2011, 09:41:46 PM
I heard that he's "helping" him during the final push. If true, our thanks to you, sir.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 11, 2011, 09:51:20 PM
PPP says Obama's approval in NY-09 is 31%. Oof.

He's going to lose next year.

Alright, that might just be the insomnia and the tramadol talking. I admit that. Who knows.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 11, 2011, 09:52:52 PM
I really hope Weprin pulls it out, just because I want to see Republicans get their faces crack and because I don't want to see them going on about New York trending heavily Republican and how even Palin could win in a landslide. Petty, but it's how I think.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 11, 2011, 09:54:22 PM

Stupid but it's how you think.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on September 11, 2011, 10:02:59 PM
47-41 Turner, sez PPP.  (4% for the Socialist Workers Party candidate - huh?)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/09/republican-bob-turner-is-poised-to-pull-a-huge-upset-in-the-race-to-replace-anthony-weiner-as-the-congressman-from-new-yorks.html


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 11, 2011, 10:03:28 PM
Same margin as Sienna.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 11, 2011, 10:04:28 PM
Not impossible to overcome given the usual issues with constituency/district/etc polling, I suppose. Looks pretty bleak regardless.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 11, 2011, 10:06:51 PM

There you go with the name calling. Let's keep this thread on track, one person already threw it way off already.

To ignore you go.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 11, 2011, 10:08:01 PM

Heartbreaking.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 11, 2011, 10:12:48 PM
I kinda doubt the SWP guy will get 4%. Not that that will help Weprin. My guess for Tuesday is 52-47 Turner.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 11, 2011, 10:15:13 PM
NY Jew was probably right about the effect.  This one is not a microcosm.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 11, 2011, 10:19:04 PM
Sigh...

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0911/In_leaked_custody_filing_heedless_Weprin_dirty_politics_alleged.html?showall

I do have to scratch my head at this being leaked at the last minute. Surely a 25-year-old court case can't be that impressive a finishing blow. Of course, they did it to Phil Kellam in 2006 here in VA-02...


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: nclib on September 11, 2011, 10:20:54 PM
Has Turner even run as a moderate, or at least less right-wing than the overall GOP? It would be even more disappointing to lose this if he hasn't.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 11, 2011, 10:22:51 PM
I know where Al's coming from in both of his posts.  This type of deterioration among these types of voters would spell real trouble.

Israel appears to be an significant issue in the campaign.  Also appears same-sex marriage is an issue as well (though a good bit less). (awaits tirades from all sides)

If Weprin loses, this poll certainly suggests that it's about national issues and Obama, not the candidates.

Anyway, we'll see in a couple of days.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 11, 2011, 10:32:20 PM
I've always been of the opinion that we were in trouble here because of Obama rather than Weprin's weaknesses as a candidate and his local selection, this poll confirms that.  Weprin has never been unpopular in the polls.

I don't understand what Turner has done to receive those numbers though, he strikes me as an awful, awful candidate who should be garnering no support from swing voters (his stances on taxes, medicare and social security should not be playing well here). His attacks against Weprin using the Mosque and 9/11 while condemning the DCCC for using a plane in their ad show his campaign's character. if people eat that pile of fecal matter up, this country is doomed.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 11, 2011, 10:48:18 PM
I kinda doubt the SWP guy will get 4%. Not that that will help Weprin. My guess for Tuesday is 52-47 Turner.

Yup.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 11, 2011, 11:13:11 PM
One final note on the poll and what perhaps should concern Democrats most of all. 55% of voters in the district report having voted for Obama in 2008, which is the actual percentage of the vote he got in the district. Last year a lot of the races Democrats lost were because their voters didn’t show up and the electorate was far more conservative than for a Presidential year. When you lose that way you can say, well, our voters will come back out in 2012 and we’ll be fine. But there is no enthusiasm gap here. Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008. But only 65% of them are voting Democratic. That’s a really big cause for concern.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 11, 2011, 11:17:07 PM
Does anyone have the Siena poll's internals? Someone told me they had Obama with a 45% approval rating.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 11, 2011, 11:19:16 PM
NY Jew was probably right about the effect.  This one is not a microcosm.
Q12 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal............................................................... 41%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%


Importance of Same-Sex Marriage on Vote (Orthodox Jews are always unrepresented in these polls)
Jewish Very 32%
Catholic Very 29%

unfortunately this poll doesn't ask enough questions (like dividing Jews up)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 11, 2011, 11:23:24 PM
Has Turner even run as a moderate, or at least less right-wing than the overall GOP? It would be even more disappointing to lose this if he hasn't.

we'll you'll be happy to know he ran a lot more moderate (so much so that if he didn't have a lot of outside help (and I don't mean normal campaign staffers) he would have lost drastically) a campaign than last time.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: "'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted" on September 11, 2011, 11:35:11 PM
Does anyone have the Siena poll's internals? Someone told me they had Obama with a 45% approval rating.

Here (http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf). No "approval" question, but they show Obama with a 43% "favorable" rating. Nationally, Obama's personal favorables are 7+ greater than his job rating, according to RCP.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: CatoMinor on September 12, 2011, 01:14:32 AM

Congrats Kal, it looks like you may have been the first to call this if the polls are true. :P


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: redcommander on September 12, 2011, 02:08:37 AM
I've always been of the opinion that we were in trouble here because of Obama rather than Weprin's weaknesses as a candidate and his local selection, this poll confirms that.  Weprin has never been unpopular in the polls.

I don't understand what Turner has done to receive those numbers though, he strikes me as an awful, awful candidate who should be garnering no support from swing voters (his stances on taxes, medicare and social security should not be playing well here). His attacks against Weprin using the Mosque and 9/11 while condemning the DCCC for using a plane in their ad show his campaign's character. if people eat that pile of fecal matter up, this country is doomed.

Well Hochul and the DCC's campaign against Corwin wasn't exactly tame either, so it's not as if Democrats don't pull similar stunts to try and win special elections. What was throwing Granny off the cliff in NY-26, is going after Wepren for the Ground Zero Mosque in NY-9. Special elections come down to turnout, and the best way to maximize turnout is to sensationalize issues.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on September 12, 2011, 03:16:33 AM
I answered that because this type of legislation is one of the biggest fronts to god possible.
 (I can give many other reasons like kicking people out of their jobs as Town Clerks for not betraying their religion)

It's not betraying anybody's religion to sign civil documents unless they lead to something objectively sinful happening. Discrimination on the basis of sex or gender is an example of something that's objectively sinful. It was sinful then and it is sinful now. The only differences are the information that we now have, and the material conditions that allow us to have it.

"Objectively sinful"? Wtf is that even supposed to mean? "Sinful" pretty much means "a sin according to the tradition of religion x [as defined by context, but usually Christian or some Christian tradition], irrespective of what the law or the rather minimal rules of "absolute morality" have to say on the subject".


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 12, 2011, 07:14:04 AM
And the moral of the story is "don't nominate a member of the New York Assembly for a special election to Congress".


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 12, 2011, 09:21:14 AM
I answered that because this type of legislation is one of the biggest fronts to god possible.
 (I can give many other reasons like kicking people out of their jobs as Town Clerks for not betraying their religion)

It's not betraying anybody's religion to sign civil documents unless they lead to something objectively sinful happening. Discrimination on the basis of sex or gender is an example of something that's objectively sinful. It was sinful then and it is sinful now. The only differences are the information that we now have, and the material conditions that allow us to have it.

"Objectively sinful"? Wtf is that even supposed to mean? "Sinful" pretty much means "a sin according to the tradition of religion x [as defined by context, but usually Christian or some Christian tradition], irrespective of what the law or the rather minimal rules of "absolute morality" have to say on the subject".

It's supposed to mean 'a phrase used in an argument with another religious person when a certain set of assumptions have already been established, mainly because the other religious person is obviously trolling anyway'.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 12, 2011, 09:41:59 AM
Didn't Gore get close to 70% in this district ?

I think NY-09 is a "special case" this year. People want to send a message after the sex scandal of Weiner and the district itself is trending away from the Democrats on the Presidential level. Considering that Obama got only 55% there and Gore almost 70%, it's not really so out of line that Obama might be in a tight battle with Romney or Perry in the district. Obama is also not really the most Pro-Israel candidate and that certainly isn't playing well with the large right-wing Jews in the district. Add to that a moderately popular Republican candidate, a clueless Democrat with no campaign skills and a DCCC with no campaign skills and you get a recipe for disaster tomorrow.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 12, 2011, 09:45:59 AM
Is Turner actually popular though? I thought I remember some people here saying that this race was over for the GOP when that City Councilman passed on running and Turner got the nomination. I also thought that Turner was pretty damn conservative.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 12, 2011, 09:49:41 AM
Is Turner actually popular though? I thought I remember some people here saying that this race was over for the GOP when that City Councilman passed on running and Turner got the nomination. I also thought that Turner was pretty damn conservative.

PPP says yes:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Turner?

Favorable........................................................ 45%
Unfavorable .................................................... 30%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of David Weprin?

Favorable........................................................ 39%
Unfavorable .................................................... 36%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NY9_9111118.pdf

Siena also:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Turner?

Favorable........................................................ 48%
Unfavorable .................................................... 34%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of David Weprin?

Favorable........................................................ 41%
Unfavorable .................................................... 41%

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on September 12, 2011, 09:52:51 AM
Didn't Gore get close to 70% in this district ?

Yep, for two reasons.
()
()


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 12, 2011, 10:11:36 AM
Didn't Gore get close to 70% in this district ?

Yep, for two reasons.

*big picture of Joe Lieberman*

*big picture of W*

It still trended away, even without this factor:

2000: Gore 48%, NY-09: 67% Gore (+19)
2004: Kerry 48%, NY-09: 56% Kerry (+8)
2008: Obama 53%, NY-09: 55% Obama (+2)

So, the Lieberman factor probably added +5 to Gore in the district.

If the trend continues (-6 every cycle), Obama's 2012 percentage in NY-09 should be about 4% less than his national result. Considering Obama is currently in a tie with Romney and Perry nationally at about 47% each, Obama should have about 43% against them in NY-09.

Which is about what PPP said.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: rob in cal on September 12, 2011, 11:33:33 AM
If there are just three candidates on the ballot are the Greens and Independence parties giving their ballot line to either Turner or Weprin?  I'm assuming Working Families goes to Weprin and Conservative to Turner.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 12, 2011, 11:42:55 AM
It is just so special that Weiner quit right before redistricting. His CD is now going to live on,  and be way out of reach of the Dems.  Mr. Weiner had an impact on history which will have legs. Isn't that special?  :)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on September 12, 2011, 11:54:45 AM
If the trend continues (-6 every cycle),

Would you extrapolate a trend line from two data points (the change from 2000 to 2004, and from 2004 to 2008)?

Here's how I see it:

2000: Dems way overperform because Lieberman is on the ticket and Bush is a terrible candidate for the NYC metro area.
2004: Absence of Lieberman causes regression to the mean for here, also people vote more R over 9/11 and Iraq war
2008: Obama only treads water here while doing better elsewhere because he does badly among olds and old Jewish Dems in particular (see FL-22 as well)
2011: Continues to crater among old people and Jewish Dems.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 12, 2011, 12:14:19 PM
Didn't Gore get close to 70% in this district ?

I think NY-09 is a "special case" this year. People want to send a message after the sex scandal of Weiner and the district itself is trending away from the Democrats on the Presidential level. Considering that Obama got only 55% there and Gore almost 70%, it's not really so out of line that Obama might be in a tight battle with Romney or Perry in the district. Obama is also not really the most Pro-Israel candidate and that certainly isn't playing well with the large right-wing Jews in the district. Add to that a moderately popular Republican candidate, a clueless Democrat with no campaign skills and a DCCC with no campaign skills and you get a recipe for disaster tomorrow.
Turner's Jewish vote in the last poll was 6 points above his popularity.  (anyone who doesn't think that 40 rabbis (including some of the biggest (most respected in Orthodox circles) rabbis in America today) forbidding voting for Weprin is a major factor in this race is way to clueless to understand why this election will be lost)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 12, 2011, 12:27:03 PM
If the trend continues (-6 every cycle),

Would you extrapolate a trend line from two data points (the change from 2000 to 2004, and from 2004 to 2008)?

Here's how I see it:

2000: Dems way overperform because Lieberman is on the ticket and Bush is a terrible candidate for the NYC metro area.
2004: Absence of Lieberman causes regression to the mean for here, also people vote more R over 9/11 and Iraq war
2008: Obama only treads water here while doing better elsewhere because he does badly among olds and old Jewish Dems in particular (see FL-22 as well)
2011: Continues to crater among old people and Jewish Dems.

the answer is Orthodox Jews who have changed their voting habits more towards the GOP thanks to the postions of the current democratic party plus many areas in this district have a lot more orthodox jews then they had 10 years ago ex. Marine Park, Kew Garden Hills ext.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on September 12, 2011, 02:10:30 PM
Is Weprin done at this point? A poll from PPP has Turner>Weprin 47-41.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 12, 2011, 02:18:22 PM

Yes.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 12, 2011, 03:20:30 PM
It is just so special that Weiner quit right before redistricting. His CD is now going to live on,  and be way out of reach of the Dems.  Mr. Weiner had an impact on history which will have legs. Isn't that special?  :)

It's still getting cut. There is no way Democrats are going to agree to give Turner a safe seat and eliminate a Democratic seat somewhere else, that would be tantamount to eliminating to Democratic seats. Controlling the state senate narrowly is hardly enough for Republicans to force a map that favorable.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on September 12, 2011, 03:38:22 PM
Yeah, I'm not sure I'm seeing the path whereby Republicans are allowed to play hardball. If it goes to the courts, this district is likely going to be changed dramatically.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 12, 2011, 03:49:54 PM
dedicated to all my critics (hope you have fun tomorrow, because the Jewish Community will be happy though we would have been much happier if this election was not necessary (and I wasn't referring to Weiner's problems (though that too)))
just to repost some of the comments that were said after I made my prediction on August 11th that this will be won based on marriage redefinition (now even a Philip Goldfeder (Orthodox politician running for the 23 Assembly district) is trying to separate him self from Weprin based on that)


Careful you don't go throwing up on yourself with all that spinning you're doing there.

That's the third time you post this nonsense. I think we got the message, so please take your idiocy and get the hell out of here.






Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 12, 2011, 03:51:58 PM
Yeah, I'm not sure I'm seeing the path whereby Republicans are allowed to play hardball. If it goes to the courts, this district is likely going to be changed dramatically.
they can't change it to dramatically in Brooklyn other wise this district would get in to trouble with the voting rights act or become even more Conservative.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 12, 2011, 03:52:28 PM
dedicated to all my critics (hope you have fun tomorrow, because the Jewish Community will be happy though we would have been much happier if this election was not necessary (and I wasn't referring to Weiner's problems (though that too)))
just to repost some of the comments that were said after I made my prediction on August 11th that this will be won based on marriage redefinition (now even a Philip Goldfeder (Orthodox politician running for the 23 Assembly district) is trying to separate him self from Weprin based on that)


Careful you don't go throwing up on yourself with all that spinning you're doing there.

That's the third time you post this nonsense. I think we got the message, so please take your idiocy and get the hell out of here.






((((()((())(((


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 12, 2011, 04:10:53 PM
Why not just run Manny Celler? If he won his physical remains would still be more intelligent than a majority of the current New York delegation.

I maintain that this was a fundamentally good idea.

seriously if he was still alive he would probably destroy both Weprin or Turner (and get the Orthodox vote (he was anti the ERA (would have been anti gay marriage and the like), pro immigration, willing to take on democratic leadership ext.))

but the democrats wouldn't pick a candidate like that today.

as a side note while on the subject if the democratic leadership wouldn't have turned down Noach Dear who was recommended by Orthodox leaders to the democratic establishment then the democrats would still have this seat after tomorrow night, and save a lot of money.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on September 12, 2011, 04:39:41 PM
Perhaps Rory Lancman would've been the better candidate in this situation.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 12, 2011, 04:42:28 PM
just in the Daily News
Rabbi Zechariah Wallerstein, founder of the Ohr Naava women's Torah center in Brooklyn, recorded an anti-Weprin robocall paid for by the National Organization for Marriage, which opposes same-sex nuptials. VIN reports that Wallerstein says he doesn't know anything about Turner, but agreed to do the call based on his belief that Weprin's past support of SSM makes him a unfit candidate for Orthodox Jews.

One of my readers reported getting a call recorded by state Sen. Ruben Diaz Sr., another vocal opponent of New York SSM.

more proof that this will be won based on Weprin redefining marriage


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 12, 2011, 04:52:29 PM
Perhaps Rory Lancman would've been the better candidate in this situation.
how would he be better then Weprin?
if you needed to pick an Assembly candidate who would win easily (though Hikind would be the best then I'm assuming you wouldn't go for that)

Michael G. Miller would have been a candidate that would do very well here


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 12, 2011, 05:00:04 PM
Are there enough Orthodox Jews to form a full Congressional district if you strung them together?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 12, 2011, 05:09:33 PM
Are there enough Orthodox Jews to form a full Congressional district if you strung them together?
no (depending on what you how you want to do it) but it also would be imposable to make a complete non Orthodox-Jewish district in NY


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 12, 2011, 06:31:27 PM
If Weprin loses, this poll certainly suggests that it's about national issues and Obama, not the candidates.

I think - if the polls and all the rumours and everything - are right*, then it'd likely be a combination of the two. These things are often about momentum; in order for the national issues to hit and to hurt, sometimes a horrific choice of candidate for the government party is needed to drop the ball in a ghastly trainwreck of unacceptably mixed metaphors. If you see my point.

Of course if Weprin loses by double digits, I take that all back. Because sometimes it isn't necessary and sometimes even good government candidates lose by-elections in safe seats. And if Weprin is beaten heavily, I think that'd be evidence that even a decent candidate would have lost. Narrowly.

*My experience is that polls and people on the ground sometimes read these things very badly, so we shouldn't be too shocked if they turn out to be wrong. Even if that is hardly likely.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 12, 2011, 06:44:16 PM
If Weprin loses, this poll certainly suggests that it's about national issues and Obama, not the candidates.

I think - if the polls and all the rumours and everything - are right*, then it'd likely be a combination of the two. These things are often about momentum; in order for the national issues to hit and to hurt, sometimes a horrific choice of candidate for the government party is needed to drop the ball in a ghastly trainwreck of unacceptably mixed metaphors. If you see my point.

Of course if Weprin loses by double digits, I take that all back. Because sometimes it isn't necessary and sometimes even good government candidates lose by-elections in safe seats. And if Weprin is beaten heavily, I think that'd be evidence that even a decent candidate would have lost. Narrowly.

*My experience is that polls and people on the ground sometimes read these things very badly, so we shouldn't be too shocked if they turn out to be wrong. Even if that is hardly likely.
Turner is also a lousy candidate too (his biggest gaffes had not even been reported on (the democrats and Republicans don't realize why there gaffes and his supporters are covering them up because they don't want Weprin)).
this race is a combination of many flaws (in the minds of rank and file democrats) in different parts of the democratic platform most notably marriage redefinition.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 12, 2011, 07:00:46 PM
Hey, is there a heavy Orthodox Jew community in this district? Also, has Gay Marriage resonated as an issue in this Special?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 12, 2011, 07:01:59 PM
Hey, is there a heavy Orthodox Jew community in this district? Also, has Gay Marriage resonated as an issue in this Special?

You've heard that as well?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 12, 2011, 07:15:12 PM
Hey, is there a heavy Orthodox Jew community in this district? Also, has Gay Marriage resonated as an issue in this Special?

there is are 3 Orthodox communities (Belle Harbor, Bayswater, and most importantly Far Rockway) in this district  (in addition part of this district overlaps with the 9th (though most of the Orthodox areas are out of the 9th))
yes Jane Deacy has accused Phillip Goldfeder an Orthodox Jew (who is against gay marriage but not vocal about it) of not championing to get rid of it in a hope to connect him with Weprin.

There also is another special election for an assembly race in the 9th Congressional district where the democrat is also an Orthodox Jew (who seems to be against gay marriage but since there is no real race it's hard to tell 100%) and the Republican is a place holder because the Republicans are to stupid and corrupt (there is a lot of infighting in the Queens Republican party and in order to get support in the chairmanship race they put up a person who has no chance of winning) to put up a real candidate. (though the good thing about this race is that when both Republicans and Orthodox jews in this very Orthodox district go to the polls they are most likely going to vote for Turner)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on September 12, 2011, 08:46:24 PM
Noach Dear? Oh lord.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 12, 2011, 08:51:18 PM
you might hate him but he would have won instead you get REPUBLICAN Bob Turner, and a slap in the face to your president, your parties platforms and the most public campaign of someone losing because they voted for pro gay marriage.

But think on the bright side at least you didn't get Noach Dear.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 12, 2011, 08:54:46 PM
It would be amusing if this turned into a mypalfish situation.  Probably not, though.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: memphis on September 12, 2011, 09:11:02 PM
These rabbis "forbidding" voting for candidates need to lose their tax-exempt status pronto. If these were Christian pastors, it would be a huge scandal.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 12, 2011, 09:28:06 PM
These rabbis "forbidding" voting for candidates need to lose their tax-exempt status pronto. If these were Christian pastors, it would be a huge scandal.

Unless, of course, they were Black ministers in predominately Black congregations.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 12, 2011, 09:39:31 PM
These rabbis "forbidding" voting for candidates need to lose their tax-exempt status pronto. If these were Christian pastors, it would be a huge scandal.
the way they did it was 100% within the IRS code.
so tough luck and I hope you have a great night tomorrow night because I will.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 12, 2011, 11:21:24 PM
my first prediction on this forum Weprin will lose this race mostly because of his redefinition of marriage support.

Careful you don't go throwing up on yourself with all that spinning you're doing there.
are they also spinning this? (or are some apologies in order)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/special-elections-reveal-a-fickle-electorate/2011/09/12/gIQAFbHNNK_blog.html

(Democrats are already blaming New York Democratic nominee David Weprin’s vote for same-sex marriage from when he was in the state Assembly for alienating Jewish voters.)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 13, 2011, 12:24:47 AM
the way they did it was 100% within the IRS code.
so tough luck and I hope you have a great night tomorrow night because I will.

Why? Are you taking your hand to a dinner?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 12:41:00 AM
my first prediction on this forum Weprin will lose this race mostly because of his redefinition of marriage support.

Careful you don't go throwing up on yourself with all that spinning you're doing there.
are they also spinning this? (or are some apologies in order)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/special-elections-reveal-a-fickle-electorate/2011/09/12/gIQAFbHNNK_blog.html

(Democrats are already blaming New York Democratic nominee David Weprin’s vote for same-sex marriage from when he was in the state Assembly for alienating Jewish voters.)

Actually the way I read the article the leitmotif was the Dem national malaise and erosion, and that the Dems want to spin that macro away with the micro of blaming it all on Welprin's gay marriage thing.  While you may be right that the gay thing was the straw that broke Welprin's back (I have no idea either way), your link actually undermines your case. You need to find stuff that spins it your way - not the opposite, if you are adducing it as evidentially support for your point of view.  :)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 13, 2011, 01:21:08 AM
my first prediction on this forum Weprin will lose this race mostly because of his redefinition of marriage support.

Careful you don't go throwing up on yourself with all that spinning you're doing there.
are they also spinning this? (or are some apologies in order)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/special-elections-reveal-a-fickle-electorate/2011/09/12/gIQAFbHNNK_blog.html

(Democrats are already blaming New York Democratic nominee David Weprin’s vote for same-sex marriage from when he was in the state Assembly for alienating Jewish voters.)

Actually the way I read the article the leitmotif was the Dem national malaise and erosion, and that the Dems want to spin that macro away with the micro of blaming it all on Welprin's gay marriage thing.  While you may be right that the gay thing was the straw that broke Welprin's back (I have no idea either way), your link actually undermines your case. You need to find stuff that spins it your way - not the opposite, if you are adducing it as evidentially support for your point of view.  :)

except when was the last time the democrats ever tried to use a spin on a platform their against.  There only saying that because anyone in the district who's eyes are open clearly knows it's true.
as opposed to the usual garbage (it was a lousy candidate, he was uninspiring, he wasn't liberal enough and lost his base ext.)

  As a side point Koch's Obama message on Israel thing has a slight twist in certain more modern parts of the Orthodox community to if he betrayed us on marriage (and couldn't stand up for what (many people foolishly think he is actually against gay marriage but he is a political prostitute like Sheldon Silver is (if they knew the truth he would be doing even worse)) he believes in and voted for marriage despite he knows it's wrong) and went with the liberal democrat party line how can we trust him not to betray our safety in Israel (or stand up to Obama) and go with the liberal democrat party line.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 13, 2011, 01:23:11 AM
the way they did it was 100% within the IRS code.
so tough luck and I hope you have a great night tomorrow night because I will.

Why? Are you taking your hand to a dinner?
????????????????????????

though I probably don't want to know what this means.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 13, 2011, 09:51:43 AM
this is now right wing spin to (it's obvious to anyone who even glances at the jewish papers )
http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/13/jewish-voters-tell-david-weprin-where-to-shove-his-yarmulke/



Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 13, 2011, 09:53:07 AM
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/General+News/102996/Op-Ed%3A-Why-Bob-Turner-Needs-To-Be-Your-Choice-Today.html


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 13, 2011, 10:18:49 AM
from the largest Orthodox paper todays edition
http://www.hamodia.com/digitaledition.cfm?docid=fd88eade5b1a47698f86ee741ef5da94

and read this interview with Weprin on page 15 (and tell me marriage wasn't the big issue)
http://www.hamodia.com/digitaledition.cfm?docid=4224c51b74ef4a0aa0a7e453049c9e02


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 12:06:04 PM
I'm predicting a 51% to 48% win for Turner.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 13, 2011, 12:24:56 PM
Turner 53%
Weprin 46%


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2011, 12:32:10 PM
Results should be here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 13, 2011, 02:04:45 PM
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/277046/marriage-and-remarkable-turner-surprise-kathryn-jean-lopez

http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/General+News/103093/YWN-MAILBAG%3A-Only-A-Few-Hours-Left-For-NY-9.html

anyone still think this has nothing to do with marriage.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 02:06:22 PM
anyone still think this has nothing to do with marriage.

But does it have to do with gay marriage?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 03:46:47 PM
One person's endorsement that Weprin probably could have done without:
Weiner votes for Weprin, says it would be 'bad' if Republican won (http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/weiner_votes_for_weprin_in_special_lIe3Bv6wi7nuETkD7MrvTL).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on September 13, 2011, 04:03:57 PM
My friends in NY 09 (Kew Gardens and Forest Hills) tell me that Weprin people are out in full force at every precinct...like a dozen people at each precinct.

Could Weprin pull it off?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 13, 2011, 04:07:15 PM
Structurally, it's definitely possible for Weprin to scrape together enough votes. It can be difficult at this late stage, but not impossible.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 13, 2011, 04:13:07 PM
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/277046/marriage-and-remarkable-turner-surprise-kathryn-jean-lopez

http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/General+News/103093/YWN-MAILBAG%3A-Only-A-Few-Hours-Left-For-NY-9.html

anyone still think this has nothing to do with marriage.

yes


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 13, 2011, 04:13:31 PM
My friends in NY 09 (Kew Gardens and Forest Hills) tell me that Weprin people are out in full force at every precinct...like a dozen people at each precinct.

Could Weprin pull it off?

no


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Napoleon on September 13, 2011, 04:19:46 PM
One person's endorsement that Weprin probably could have done without:
Weiner votes for Weprin, says it would be 'bad' if Republican won (http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/weiner_votes_for_weprin_in_special_lIe3Bv6wi7nuETkD7MrvTL).

All 435 should be Democrats!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 04:41:00 PM
Look the only outcome after Turner wins this race is:
Before: Redistricting was likely going to be decided by the courts
Now: Redistricting will likely be a compromise "incumbency protection" bill

"I trade you my 'likely to lose soon' Dem congressman in GOP district for your 'likely to lose soon' GOP congressman in Dem district and everything else stays pretty close to the same.

For those that disagree with that:
1) If you are a Dem thinking you are entitled to two seats given up by the GOP why do you think the GOP senate would ever agree to that
2) If you are GOP thinking the exact opposite...I point you to number 1.
3) If you think that it makes more sense for your particular party to let the courts decide, your wrong. The courts will produce a similar delegation map except the NY politicians will likely wonder if so and so court could put me on the chopping block for no gain...better to cut a deal now and protect me!!!!!!!!!!!!

The real story here is: Why are the Dems blowing a ton of money on a race that doesn't matter much, AGAIN? My guess is that state bills and the economy have dropped union dues by at least 15% nationally in just the last 4 years and the Left are acting like they have money to piss around on nothing.

Like right after WEA threw the kitchen sink at the WI senate when they knew that the new redistricting bill was going to make sure they didn't have the WI senate after 2012 anyway. Election ends and they lay off 60% of their union staff and are now out of the 2012 race.

I for one will continue to applaud the stupidity of Dem campaign committees and their 527s/501c(4)s blowing money on meaningless races.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on September 13, 2011, 04:45:25 PM
I'll try to be the optimist here, just because I'll be the only one with bragging rights if I'm right:

Weprin 50%
Turner 49%


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 13, 2011, 04:50:25 PM
I say Weprin 51.5%, Turner 47%, just to deny BRTD his bragging rights in case Weprin wins.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Rowan on September 13, 2011, 04:53:32 PM
"GOTV will win it for us!" is usually a death knell.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 13, 2011, 04:55:12 PM
50% Weprin
47% Turner

As I said, the structure of the district makes it not a guaranteed win for the Republican. This isn't an R+ district by any stretch.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 04:57:07 PM
"GOTV will win it for us!" is usually a death knell.

J. J.'s Second Rule of Elections: "When a politician or activist talks about a large group of voters that, a. aren't being polled, or b. really going to turn out and swing the election, there is no such group."

This is close to that violation.

Turner 54%
Weprin 45%


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 05:14:23 PM

I don't understand this tactic. Have all but two of them go knock on doors somewhere (not that I mind Weprin wasting his people...). Already have people knocking? Ok. Add some more. Or have them do phone calls.

We had a major City Council primary in the district just south of mine this past May. Both of the Dems had a dozen people at almost every polling place. They were just huddled around, with one or two of them really working. I understand strength in numbers but this is just a waste.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 05:16:47 PM
The Democratic party "We waste your money and resources"

and "now are own"....YAY!!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 13, 2011, 05:26:44 PM
Turner 50
Weprin 48

Pulled the numbers completely out my ass. I nailed the special election in CA even though I wasn't anywhere close to there for a year or two, so why not in NYC? :)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 13, 2011, 05:29:50 PM
The Democratic party "We waste your money and resources"

and "now are own"....YAY!!

What?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Capitan Zapp Brannigan on September 13, 2011, 05:35:27 PM
Just heard that African American turnout is at 2008 levels.  This will be very close.
lol, good trolling.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 05:38:25 PM
The Democratic party "We waste your money and resources"

and "now are own"....YAY!!

What?

Talking about how Dems are blowing money on a race that wont have much consequence after redistricting and how they are putting way to many people at the polls that should be door knocking.

Its interesting to watch the Dems being horrible stewards of their own election resources and money. I guess it was bound to happen sooner or later given how bad they are with other peoples money in government.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 13, 2011, 05:57:01 PM
After playing around with the 2010 Weiner/Turner numbers and '08 Presidential numbers, I think Weprin's going to have to get about 54-55% in Queens and 39-40% in Brooklyn to win. Of course, if turnout is down in Queens relative to Brooklyn (it was about 70-30 in both of the previous elections), it gets significantly harder for Weprin to pull off a win.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 13, 2011, 05:58:44 PM
What sort of time do the results start to come in?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 13, 2011, 06:00:28 PM
Polls close at 9 PM Eastern.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 06:03:31 PM
After playing around with the 2010 Weiner/Turner numbers and '08 Presidential numbers, I think Weprin's going to have to get about 54-55% in Queens and 39-40% in Brooklyn to win. Of course, if turnout is down in Queens relative to Brooklyn (it was about 70-30 in both of the previous elections), it gets significantly harder for Weprin to pull off a win.

Well you have the right idea I think you need to polarize the numbers a little bit more. The numbers coming out of some circles is that Welprin needs 57-58% in Queens and needs to do better than ~37% in Brooklyn. That's how bad they think he's going to do in Brooklyn.

The exact terminology is that unless Welprin starts putting up more than 60% in Forest Hills, Rego Park, Fresh Meadows, and Kew Gardens he is going to have a rough night.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 13, 2011, 06:04:01 PM
The Democratic party "We waste your money and resources"

and "now are own"....YAY!!

What?

Talking about how Dems are blowing money on a race that wont have much consequence after redistricting and how they are putting way to many people at the polls that should be door knocking.

Its interesting to watch the Dems being horrible stewards of their own election resources and money. I guess it was bound to happen sooner or later given how bad they are with other peoples money in government.

Well, specifically, I was referring to the "now are own". It didn't come across as coherent English to me. But I'll give you benefit of the doubt, as you didn't refer to the Democratic Party as the "Democrat Party", as certain other Republican posters on here often do.

And no offense, but it's kind of ironic for someone with an R avatar to criticise fiscal irresponsibility.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 06:24:41 PM
Reuters reported a "large" turnout this AM.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/13/us-usa-congress-weiner-idUSTRE78C0VL20110913


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Napoleon on September 13, 2011, 06:26:22 PM
52% Turner
47% Weprin


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on September 13, 2011, 06:55:01 PM
Results should be here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html

Is there something wrong with this link? It leads to a map of the US that shows member press outfits by state.



Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 07:05:50 PM
Results should be here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html

Is there something wrong with this link? It leads to a map of the US that shows member press outfits by state.




Maybe they have not started posting the results yet?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on September 13, 2011, 07:09:30 PM
The results page should still come up with no numbers, even hours before results start coming in.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Marston on September 13, 2011, 07:09:58 PM
I'm calling an 'upset':

Weprin: 51%
Turner 48%

(based on nothing, really). I just feel like being out of the norm, I guess.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on September 13, 2011, 07:15:39 PM
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


He left off the question mark and everything afterwards. I found the WI page from august and copy and pasted it on.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 07:20:40 PM
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


He left off the question mark and everything afterwards. I found the WI page from august and copy and pasted it on.

I did the same thing and was in the process of posting the link when your message came up.

Only the AP will have results (or from their media partners).  Neither the New York City nor State board of elections post preliminary tallies.   Polls close in 40 minutes.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 07:23:03 PM
Anybody know of any news or results sources that will get us a little deeper peek??


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 07:25:17 PM
Anybody know of any news or results sources that will get us a little deeper peek??

Read my last post.  New York City BoE doesn't do election night results.  The AP tally is it, unless a media partner like the New York Times goes deeper than county level (which I doubt).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on September 13, 2011, 07:29:10 PM
That is the problem with single and double county CD's. Don't have much in terms of bellweathers to go by etc etc. The best you can do is create a formula based on assumptions of how Brooklyn and Queens will perform and what performances in them equal what performances district wide.




Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 07:35:05 PM
A few did in WI for the Senate Recalls, but it just comes in a 1 or 2 time news release.

"Within Milwaukee county Whitefish Bay and Shorewood have already reported, the only precincts left within Milwaukee county are in Glendale and Brown Deer" meaning that the Dem percentage lead in Milwaukee county will fall a little bit by the end of the night.

Or

"Pasch outperformed her 08 Whitefish Bay margin by 200 votes."

Any news source you recommend for those type of releases???


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Seattle on September 13, 2011, 07:41:55 PM
I'll go 49-49, because I'm a chicken.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 07:43:40 PM
If recent election reporting is any kind of barometer I bet that east Queens will report a few early followed by all of west Queens and then the rest of east Queens at the end.

Brooklyn is anybodies guess.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 07:46:21 PM
If that plays out then the Dems will look good right away in Queens, followed by the vote tally getting much closer as the remaining Dem precincts wait to be the precinct that puts Welprin over the top. When that doesn't materialize they will eventually just release in mass.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 07:48:32 PM
A few did in WI for the Senate Recalls, but it just comes in a 1 or 2 time news release.

"Within Milwaukee county Whitefish Bay and Shorewood have already reported, the only precincts left within Milwaukee county are in Glendale and Brown Deer" meaning that the Dem percentage lead in Milwaukee county will fall a little bit by the end of the night.

Or

"Pasch outperformed her 08 Whitefish Bay margin by 200 votes."

Any news source you recommend for those type of releases???

Considering that none of the New York papers or TV stations even have a link to results 15 minutes before the polls close, no.  IIRC, Milwaukee County reported which precincts were in and out on their website.  New York City doesn't do that.  This election has probably gotten more play with partisans outside NYC than in NYC.  You can always check the New York Times' website, though - something might pop up.


You can read about the antiquated way New York reports preliminary results to the AP here (http://vote.nyc.ny.us/pdf/documents/boe/StatementOnElectionNightResults.pdf).  It literally involves the NYPD.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 13, 2011, 07:48:48 PM
Let the race...end, actually. Polls about to close.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on September 13, 2011, 08:00:50 PM
POLLS CLOSED! Results TIME BABY


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 13, 2011, 08:03:15 PM
Polls have closed.
I hope Weprin wins, but I'll say it's 51-48 Turner...


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 08:11:03 PM
I'm predicting it closer than some are saying. 50.5 to 49 Turner.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Talleyrand on September 13, 2011, 08:15:18 PM
52.5% Turner, 47.5% Weprin.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 13, 2011, 08:16:07 PM
Weprin leads by 7, 23% reporting.  New York counts pretty fast.

That's not true. Or is it? There are no news from Twitter or AP


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2011, 08:16:37 PM
Weprin leads by 7, 23% reporting.  New York counts pretty fast.

Is this a joke or where did you get the numbers from ?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 13, 2011, 08:17:00 PM
Weprin leads by 7, 23% reporting.  New York counts pretty fast.

link?  


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on September 13, 2011, 08:17:15 PM
Van Der is good, but his mimicking other posters reminds me of a computer virus mimicking the name of a legitimate program. And thats what I think about everytime I see him do that. ;)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 13, 2011, 08:17:24 PM
haha


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 08:19:12 PM
1010 WINS live stream can be heard hear:  http://newyork.cbslocal.com/station/1010-wins/#listen-live


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2011, 08:20:38 PM
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


He left off the question mark and everything afterwards. I found the WI page from august and copy and pasted it on.

Strange. It worked well for me, only with the .html link.

But maybe the link is broken for others when you don't post the full one ... :P

Thx anyway for posting the full link again.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Psychic Octopus on September 13, 2011, 08:24:19 PM
I'm still getting no results... When are the results going to be posted?

Vander Blubb, ;D. You had me going there for a second.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on September 13, 2011, 08:25:34 PM
Before results come out...PREDICTIONS!!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on September 13, 2011, 08:25:40 PM
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


He left off the question mark and everything afterwards. I found the WI page from august and copy and pasted it on.

Strange. It worked well for me, only with the .html link.

But maybe the link is broken for others when you don't post the full one ... :P

Thx anyway for posting the full link again.

Maybe it's a product of location.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 13, 2011, 08:26:25 PM
Before results come out...PREDICTIONS!!

51-48 Turner.

But when do you think we'll get the first results? Maybe in 10 minutes?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 08:26:40 PM
For what it's worth, the Brooklyn part of the district has 33.2% of NY-09s precincts but only 29.3% of its registered voters.   Brooklyn accounted for 29.6% of the district's Congressional vote in 2010.  Caveat straight line interpolation.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: TeePee4Prez on September 13, 2011, 08:26:52 PM
Weprin 49.9- Turner 49.1- SW guy 1.0


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 13, 2011, 08:28:20 PM
Weprin 50.09% - Turner 48.67% - SW 1.24%  I feel like being an optimist.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 08:31:11 PM
Weprin 51.07% - Turner 48.93%  I feel like being an optimist.

So your going to make an optimistic very specific prediction, but assume that the SW candidate wont get a single vote???


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 13, 2011, 08:31:40 PM
I wonder if we'll have results before a winner is declared in NV-2.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 13, 2011, 08:31:45 PM
Race is currently exactly tied. 2 counties left to report.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 13, 2011, 08:34:04 PM
Race is currently exactly tied. 2 counties left to report.

That's true.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2011, 08:36:43 PM
Apperently, there are dead people voting in the district:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/dead-voters-in-ny-9-turner-obtains-order-sealing-paper-ballots/


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Shilly on September 13, 2011, 08:39:39 PM
Guess I'll sneak in a prediction here.

Turner by 5.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 08:41:30 PM
Really 40 minutes later???

Damn New York is backwards.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Vosem on September 13, 2011, 08:41:36 PM
I predict a Hoeppner upset :P


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 08:43:54 PM
Really 40 minutes later???

Damn New York is backwards.

Our antiquated election results reporting process leaves a lot to be desired.

Results are starting to trickle in in other city races.  It should be a matter of minutes before NY-09 results start to trickle in, too.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 13, 2011, 08:44:45 PM
People, could you answer me?? Do you know when we'll receive the 1st results??? It's 3:43 AM here and I'm really tired. I'd like to see some results before going bed... and then, waking up with the final results ;)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 13, 2011, 08:45:40 PM
Thanks, cynic.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2011, 08:47:18 PM
I guess we'll get results from Nevada earlier than those from NY today ... :P


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on September 13, 2011, 08:51:57 PM
I guess we'll get results from Nevada earlier than those from NY today ... :P

They have dead people counting the ballots.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on September 13, 2011, 08:52:01 PM
Really 40 minutes later???

Damn New York is backwards.

Our antiquated election results reporting process leaves a lot to be desired.

Results are starting to trickle in in other city races.  It should be a matter of minutes before NY-09 results start to trickle in, too.

Where are you getting those results? Link please?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 08:52:44 PM
I guess we'll get results from Nevada earlier than those from NY today ... :P

Maybe.  But you have to remember that it's primary day in New York.  There are some very low level, minor races on the ballot, including a Brooklyn judicial race and county party committee precinct-level committee member in some places.  There is more to count than just NY-09.  Some precincts are in in the Brooklyn judicial race, so we should be getting NY-09 results soon.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 08:53:18 PM
Really 40 minutes later???

Damn New York is backwards.

Our antiquated election results reporting process leaves a lot to be desired.

Results are starting to trickle in in other city races.  It should be a matter of minutes before NY-09 results start to trickle in, too.

Where are you getting those results? Link please?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_Page_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 13, 2011, 08:53:47 PM
1st precint in Queens. 40% Weprin, 57% Turner


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Dereich on September 13, 2011, 08:54:18 PM
Wow! One whole precinct in, 57-40 Turner. About time.

Edit- Bah, just missed breaking the news.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 08:54:33 PM
Wow 84 votes. All be damned...


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 13, 2011, 08:55:33 PM
48 votes Turner
34 votes Weprin
2 votes Socialist candidate


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 13, 2011, 08:58:41 PM
Good night everybody! "See" you tomorrow ;)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Marston on September 13, 2011, 09:01:43 PM
3 Precincts in now (all Queens): 50-49 Turner


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 13, 2011, 09:04:47 PM
4 precincts in, Turner leads 55-44


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on September 13, 2011, 09:06:05 PM
If Turner is leading in Queens then it really doesn't look good for Weprin; however, these could be precincts in areas like Breezy Point or Middle village.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 09:06:21 PM
Any guesses where these tiny precincts are located.

My guess...

Oakland Gardens


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on September 13, 2011, 09:06:41 PM
A full 6!

56-43


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 09:09:01 PM
If Turner is winning in a place like Oakland Gardens(which probably only has a couple tiny precincts in the district hence me guessing that area) then Welprin is pretty much screwed.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 13, 2011, 09:10:33 PM
You don't know anything unless you know where the votes come from.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: tpfkaw on September 13, 2011, 09:11:59 PM
9 precincts

56-43 Turner

This is going to be dull if they keep doing it 1 or 2 at a time.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 09:12:36 PM
Thats right, but if you look at the map there really can only be a few areas that could produce small precincts.

Care to make your guesses where numbers could be produced that small in Queens?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 09:13:19 PM

Heavy Jewish turnout according to Fox.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 13, 2011, 09:13:56 PM
Thats right, but if you look at the map there really can only be a few areas that could produce small precincts.

Care to make your guesses where numbers could be produced that small in Queens?

How do we know that they're small?  Maybe no one is showing up here.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 09:14:38 PM
Thats right, but if you look at the map there really can only be a few areas that could produce small precincts.

Care to make your guesses where numbers could be produced that small in Queens?

Considering a precinct can be anything from half a neighborhood to just one block or apartment building, anywhere.  We don't know what we don't know.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 09:17:21 PM
Fox is also reporting "heavy" turnout in "conservative areas of Queens."


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Marston on September 13, 2011, 09:18:01 PM
At this pace, we should have complete results in about 48 hours. :P


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 13, 2011, 09:18:42 PM
The Van Der Blubb News Network is reporting that Turner just conceded.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 09:18:59 PM
Now again this could be from the fact that I don't know NY politics the best, but traditionally tiny precincts are usually border precincts where a town is 80%+ outside of the district and 20%- inside the district.

If that is the case I look to Oakland Gardens or Richmond Hills both areas that should perform better than 50% with Dems, but again small sample size.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 13, 2011, 09:20:01 PM
NY1's coverage of this one sucks.  Does anyone on these programs pay attention to details?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 09:21:17 PM
12 in Turner 55%.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Marston on September 13, 2011, 09:22:09 PM
13 precincts in (all Queens) 51-48 Turner


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 13, 2011, 09:24:09 PM
NV-02 isn't counting much faster in case you wanna know ...

Half an hour now the polls are closed and they haven't even counted the early vote yet.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 09:24:29 PM
Bayside Hills could also produce a few small precincts which should be Dem territory

As well as the eastern side of Bushwick which should be swing territory.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Marston on September 13, 2011, 09:25:59 PM
15 precincts and the politician that looks like a 70's porn star takes the lead!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 09:26:34 PM
15 in Weprin at 50%.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 09:27:28 PM
13 precincts in (all Queens) 51-48 Turner

Isn't the third of the CD in Brooklyn more Pubbie than the Queens portion in general?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 09:27:56 PM
15 precincts and the politician that looks like a 70's porn star takes the lead!

Too early to tell, but if all Weprin can do is break even in Queens, the Brooklyn part of the district will sink him.  It is much more Republican-friendly than the Queens part.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 13, 2011, 09:28:06 PM
This one and two precincts at a time thing is highly annoying.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Talleyrand on September 13, 2011, 09:28:52 PM
Turner is up 53-47 now with 18 reporting.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Marston on September 13, 2011, 09:30:12 PM
13 precincts in (all Queens) 51-48 Turner

Isn't the third of the CD in Brooklyn more Pubbie than the Queens portion in general?

Relatively speaking, yes, that is correct.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Psychic Octopus on September 13, 2011, 09:30:23 PM
Turner back in the lead, 53-47, with 18 precincts reporting.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 13, 2011, 09:30:50 PM
15 precincts and the politician that looks like a 70's porn star takes the lead!

Too early to tell, but if all Weprin can do is break even in Queens, the Brooklyn part of the district will sink him.  It is much more Republican-friendly than the Queens part.

Yep.  Weprin has to get his margin from Queens.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 13, 2011, 09:31:48 PM
26 precincts in, Weprin leads 50-49-1


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 09:33:23 PM
Call me crazy, but if you sit and stare at the map it would appear that more small precincts should come from the Dem territory in the east then the slight GOP territory in the south or the swing territory in the west of queens.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 09:35:32 PM
15 precincts and the politician that looks like a 70's porn star takes the lead!

Too early to tell, but if all Weprin can do is break even in Queens, the Brooklyn part of the district will sink him.  It is much more Republican-friendly than the Queens part.

Yep.  Weprin has to get his margin from Queens.

Weprin down 49/50, with 4 districts in Brooklyn.  He's losing those 35/65.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Marston on September 13, 2011, 09:38:24 PM
Reports starting to finally pick up. 40 precincts in. Weprin is getting smashed in Brooklyn 65-35 and loosing slightly 51-49, overall.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: redcommander on September 13, 2011, 09:39:00 PM
What website is everyone getting results from?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Psychic Octopus on September 13, 2011, 09:39:54 PM
Turner up 52-47 overall, and leading in Queens 51-48.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: "'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted" on September 13, 2011, 09:40:11 PM
What website is everyone getting results from?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Talleyrand on September 13, 2011, 09:40:49 PM
I project that Turner will win by a clear margin. Apparently the votes which haven't come in yet trend heavily his way.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: redcommander on September 13, 2011, 09:41:49 PM
What website is everyone getting results from?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Thank you.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 09:42:35 PM
I project that Turner will win by a clear margin. Apparently the votes which haven't come in yet trend heavily his way.

Which county are you referring to??

Queens...wow!!
Brooklyn...Duh!

Hence why I'm skeptical of that notion.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 09:43:25 PM
What is the Orthodox population of Queens vs. Brooklyn?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 09:44:04 PM
To someone that knows the district better than I...

Forest Hills(Dem territory) should have the largest Precinct dumps, correct?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 09:44:18 PM
Call me crazy, but if you sit and stare at the map it would appear that more small precincts should come from the Dem territory in the east then the slight GOP territory in the south or the swing territory in the west of queens.

New York precincts don't work that way.  You can have a small precinct because it is one apartment building with a tenant association that complained to the Democratic party chiefs about having to trudge elsewhere to vote.  Or it can be one block because the Assembly or City Council District lines make that block unique.  There is no reason to believe that the lines would uniformly be anywhere in the city.

Besides, turnout can be low overall.  As I said, this race got more play outside of NYC than in it.  The media market has other things to report on than one Congressional race, including the hurricane and 9/11 ceremonies.  If the current trends continue, we're looking at about 60,000 out of 184,000 active registered voters turning out, a.k.a. about 33% turnout.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 09:45:07 PM
61 in, Turner 54.  Only 8 are from Brooklyn.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Marston on September 13, 2011, 09:45:16 PM
Glad to see that Nevada is mimicking the vote-tabulating mastery taking place in New York.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 09:45:21 PM
What is the Orthodox population of Queens vs. Brooklyn?

Brooklyn is much more orthodox

and Queens is pretty Jewish, but they are the more of the wealthy not a strict type.

Its a war between two types of Jews.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: redcommander on September 13, 2011, 09:46:07 PM
My lord Weprin is getting creamed. This is more embarrassing than Republicans losing NY-26.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Marston on September 13, 2011, 09:46:55 PM
61 in, Turner 54.  Only 8 are from Brooklyn.

and Weprin is getting annihilated 71-29


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 09:47:40 PM
What is the Orthodox population of Queens vs. Brooklyn?

Brooklyn is much more orthodox

and Queens is pretty Jewish, but they are the more of the wealthy not a strict type.

Its a war between two types of Jews.

Turner is at 71% in Brooklyn.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 09:48:31 PM
This race already looks over. I am going to put up a couple of maps to make sure.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Dereich on September 13, 2011, 09:49:19 PM
What is the Orthodox population of Queens vs. Brooklyn?

Brooklyn is much more orthodox

and Queens is pretty Jewish, but they are the more of the wealthy not a strict type.

Its a war between two types of Jews.

Turner is at 71% in Brooklyn.

Well yeah, but Brooklyn has less then 1000 votes in so far.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 09:49:27 PM
This thing is pretty close to me calling it here.

The guy needs close to 60% in Queens and he isn't even breaking 50. There is 0 reason to believe that some 80% territory is going to pop out of nowhere to start making up this kind of beat down.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Smash255 on September 13, 2011, 09:49:50 PM
My lord Weprin is getting creamed. This is more embarrassing than Republicans losing NY-26.

Still too early.  The Queens #'s certainly look bad, but it really depends on whats in.  The Queens portion leans Dem no question, but you have liberal Forest Hills and very conservative and racist Howard Beach both in the district.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 09:51:12 PM
Straight-line interpolation treating Brooklyn and Queens separately would have Turner winning with 58.6% of the vote and 33.8% turnout.

Caveat straight line, though, especially with so few Brooklyn precincts.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: redcommander on September 13, 2011, 09:52:06 PM
Straight-line interpolation treating Brooklyn and Queens separately would have Turner winning with 58.6% of the vote and 33.8% turnout.

That is an incredibly large swing considering how well Weiner and Obama did in the district.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 09:52:40 PM
What is the Orthodox population of Queens vs. Brooklyn?

Brooklyn is much more orthodox

and Queens is pretty Jewish, but they are the more of the wealthy not a strict type.

Its a war between two types of Jews.

Turner is at 71% in Brooklyn.

Well yeah, but Brooklyn has less then 1000 votes in so far.

9 in, and now Turner is at 72% there.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 13, 2011, 09:52:44 PM
Either there's a lot of liberal precincts outstanding in Queens, or this one is over, and it may not even be close.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Marston on September 13, 2011, 09:53:51 PM
Hah, what if Marshall ended up doing better than Weprin?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 13, 2011, 09:54:03 PM
Weprin pushes it back to 50-50 in Queens with about a third in.  Still almost nothing from Brooklyn.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 09:54:49 PM
These aren't Howard Beach numbers though. They dumps would be trending more GOP. They aren't from Forest Hills either or the dumps would be more Dem they are from somewhere else. Numbers like these aren't the kind of numbers you see from either parties 'strongholds' within a county, city, borough, etc.

Don't get me wrong Welprin will still most assuredly take Queens. But its increasingly less likely that he's going to take it by even close the margins that he needs(like 57-58%) to win. Because he will get creamed in Brooklyn. I bet he loses 65-35 in Brooklyn.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: redcommander on September 13, 2011, 09:55:44 PM
Weprin now down 49-50 in Queens.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 09:56:02 PM
Reports from a friend of mine on the ground say that Turner's staffers are expecting this one to be officially finished very soon.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 09:58:48 PM
Still isn't breaking 50% in Queens with 1/3 of the precincts reporting...Ouch!!

I'm sorry but Forest Hills likely late dump isn't going to rescue this guy.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 13, 2011, 10:01:14 PM
Weprin is going down!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 13, 2011, 10:03:46 PM
Yeah, I don't think there's any way to argue with a straight face that Weprin has a shot in hell left.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 10:04:34 PM
Queens is tied again, but turner is now at 75% in Brooklyn (14 reporting).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: "'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted" on September 13, 2011, 10:05:23 PM
Out of curiosity, what kind of numbers was Weiner getting out of Brooklyn?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 13, 2011, 10:06:09 PM
Ah well. He won't win in 2012, and if anything NY-09 is on the chopping block.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 13, 2011, 10:06:16 PM
Weiner barely won Brooklyn in '10 (about 52-48, I think) while winning districtwide 61-39. I believe Obama lost the Brooklyn portion of the district while getting 60% in Queens.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: redcommander on September 13, 2011, 10:06:56 PM
Turner now at 77% percent in Brooklyn lol.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: "'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted" on September 13, 2011, 10:07:24 PM
Weiner barely won Brooklyn in '10 (about 52-48, I think) while winning districtwide 61-39. I believe Obama lost the Brooklyn portion of the district while getting 60% in Queens.

Thanks.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Marston on September 13, 2011, 10:07:34 PM
Down to 23% in Brooklyn. Ouch.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 10:07:46 PM
Out of curiosity, what kind of numbers was Weiner getting out of Brooklyn?

A hell of a lot better than this.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 10:07:53 PM
Yes, Turner has won. Queens has only about 25 precincts that McCain carried, and the Brooklyn portion is very Pubbie. It's totally over. And Turner will end up with a much more GOP district next time, because thanks to the VRA, most of it will be in Brooklyn. Yes Brooklyn. Trust me. . Weiner really F the Dems doing what he did at redistricting time. It should be at least a 10% margin, maybe more. It's a blowout. I wonder what repercussions it will have?

()

()


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 10:10:39 PM
Dem spin: Hey, remember when we won Chris Lee's seat?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 10:11:29 PM
Yes, Turner has won. Queens has only about 25 precincts that McCain carried, and the Brooklyn portion is very Pubbie. It's totally over. And Turner will end up with a much more GOP district next time, because thanks to the VRA, most of it will be in Brooklyn. Yes Brooklyn. Trust me. . Weiner really F the Dems doing what he did at redistricting time. It should be at least a 10% margin, maybe more. It's a blowout. I wonder what repercussions it will have?

()

()


It depends on how well Turner does in Queens.  You can say Brooklyn was do to the Orthodox angry on same sex marriage and support for Israel (for some).  Queens in another story.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 10:14:03 PM
Turner now at 77% percent in Brooklyn lol.

Weprin is up to 28%!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 10:16:24 PM
I don't buy that Turner will get a more a GOP friendly district.

I bet the GOP in the senate will trade him for Hochul. The guys 70 years old. But he will still run again when his district gets carved into its neighbors.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 13, 2011, 10:17:32 PM
This is starting to look actively embarrassing.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 10:18:50 PM
McCain did pretty well in Forest Hills actually, losing by only a relatively modest margin. I suspect Turner will carry Forest Hills. There are much more Dem parts of Queens in the CD. And I predict Forest Hills will be in the new CD as well, one of the few parts of Queens that will, along with the bits of Queens due south.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 10:20:04 PM
Current interpolation has Turner winning 55-44, though it's probably Brooklyn heavy and more Weprin-friendly areas of Queens have come in recently.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 10:20:26 PM
This is starting to look actively embarrassing.

January 20, 2009 was such a long time ago though.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 10:21:54 PM
Forest Hills is the most populated piece of Queens in the district right????

I mean Welprin wasn't seriously hoping that Kew Gardens and Fresh Meadows to carry him was he??

Do those two areas even add up to the population of Forest Hills?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Marston on September 13, 2011, 10:25:28 PM
Weprin is going in the right direction in Queens (up 53-47) so maybe his loss won't be terribly huge.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Progressive on September 13, 2011, 10:25:48 PM
Forest Hills is the most populated piece of Queens in the district right????

I mean Welprin wasn't seriously hoping that Kew Gardens and Fresh Meadows to carry him was he??

Do those two areas even add up to the population of Forest Hills?

Only sections of Kew Gardens are Orthodox there's a really big Latino, South Asian/Indo-Caribbean and LGBT population that will vote Weprin


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 13, 2011, 10:27:07 PM
215/512: Turner 51

Brooklyn: Turner 70 (39/170)
Queens: Weprin 53 (176/342)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 10:27:58 PM
I know those areas are more liberal, but they certainly aren't very big.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 10:28:27 PM
Forest Hills is the most populated piece of Queens in the district right????

I mean Welprin wasn't seriously hoping that Kew Gardens and Fresh Meadows to carry him was he??

Do those two areas even add up to the population of Forest Hills?

Forest Hills is maybe about 15% of the district in Queens - at most. So that means it may be about 10% of the total CD. Again there are much more Dem parts of Queens in the CD than Forest Hills - much more.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2011, 10:28:59 PM
For anyone who's read something about it, the special election in Assembly District 54 is currently 40% Espinal, 31% Gonzalez and 28% Towns. 54% reporting.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 10:29:20 PM
Half of Queens is in; Weprin is up 53%.  Turner is down to 70%.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: rbt48 on September 13, 2011, 10:30:56 PM
I think if Weprin can win the remainder of Queens by 60-40, he can pull out a squeaker of a win.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 10:31:57 PM
Forest Hills is the most populated piece of Queens in the district right????

I mean Welprin wasn't seriously hoping that Kew Gardens and Fresh Meadows to carry him was he??

Do those two areas even add up to the population of Forest Hills?

Forest Hills is maybe about 15% of the district in Queens - at most. So that means it may be about 10% of the total CD. Again there are much more Dem parts of Queens in the CD than Forest Hills - much more.

I get it but Fresh Meadows is like what? 4% of Queens? and Kew Gardens is about the same?? Its not like you can count on those tiny places to carry you, can you?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on September 13, 2011, 10:33:08 PM
is there any place to watch live results?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 10:34:19 PM
I think if Weprin can win the remainder of Queens by 60-40, he can pull out a squeaker of a win.

No. Not unless the most Dem parts of Brooklyn have not reported at all, and the most GOP parts of Queens are all in. That strikes me as highly doubtful.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 10:34:32 PM

I've been searching. Nothing that I can find though.  :(


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 10:34:55 PM
I think if Weprin can win the remainder of Queens by 60-40, he can pull out a squeaker of a win.

I think he would actually need slightly more, wouldn't he?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 10:35:57 PM
I think if Weprin can win the remainder of Queens by 60-40, he can pull out a squeaker of a win.

It's now 196 in Queens, the margin is still holding and going up a bit in Brooklyn.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 10:37:01 PM
Over two hundred precincts in in Queens and the gap is narrowing there. Is this one finished yet?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 10:37:54 PM
Alright its over!!!

The last tick is all I needed to see.

I would expect some outlets to start calling it soon.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 10:38:52 PM
Over two hundred precincts in in Queens and the gap is narrowing there. Is this one finished yet?

It was finished  after about 20 precincts came in, and once I looked at my mappies actually, which I posted. It's obvious.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 10:42:00 PM
216 in in Queens.  50/50.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 10:43:13 PM
This thing is going to be absolutely brutal.

3 pts is an unfortunate upset. 6 pts is a clear defeat. 9 pts is a crushing message and when this ends at slightly more than 10 pts it will be an absolute crushing defeat with a national signal you can't spin your way out of.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: rbt48 on September 13, 2011, 10:43:19 PM
Definitely over.  Turner wins as there are nearly as many Brooklyn precincts out as there are in Queens.  And Queens is basically 50-50.  Turner should have a victory margin of ~6000 votes.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 10:45:26 PM
Definitely over.  Turner wins as there are nearly as many Brooklyn precincts out as there are in Queens.  And Queens is basically 50-50.  Turner should have a victory margin of ~6000 votes.

Try 8000


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 10:46:47 PM
Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 10:47:49 PM

Again, the larger NYC media doesn't really care much about this race.  They did a story or two on the 11PM news - but it wasn't even the top story.   In a TV market with about 30 CDs, one special election matters little.

If you can get the cable-only NY1 or News 12 Brooklyn, they might be covering it.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 13, 2011, 10:48:54 PM
Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Miles on September 13, 2011, 10:49:44 PM
Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 13, 2011, 10:50:14 PM
I don't know where the red avatars are, but the blue avatars are getting pretty douchey. :)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 10:50:35 PM
Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.

You guys have had some really rough few months. Time for a beer??


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 10:51:22 PM
Definitely over.  Turner wins as there are nearly as many Brooklyn precincts out as there are in Queens.  And Queens is basically 50-50.  Turner should have a victory margin of ~6000 votes.

Try 8000

Yup.  Weprin is still on pace to take a 55-44 drubbing, losing by about 7,500 votes out of 68,500.  Reason: Brooklyn's results are lagging Queens' and Weprin is doing slightly better than breakeven in Queens.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Psychic Octopus on September 13, 2011, 10:51:32 PM
Yeah, Turner's won this. By a margin bigger than I expected, too (For what it is worth, I was predicting a 50-49 win for the GOP).

Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.

When are you guys not demoralized? ::) ;)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on September 13, 2011, 10:51:40 PM
If Weprin loses, it's looking like a Massachusetts repeat: another Democrat who assumes it's just "in the bag" because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans, and just sleeps around in his campaign office all day expecting a good race.  It's also no help that the voters didn't get to vote in primaries for this one.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Miles on September 13, 2011, 10:51:49 PM
Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.

You guys have had some really rough few months. Time for a beer??

I don't really care about NY-09; it was NV-02 that really has me disappointed.

Thanks, but I don't drink! lol


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 13, 2011, 10:52:01 PM
Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.

You guys have had some really rough few months. Time for a beer??

No, it's time to elect Perry and get rid of Medicare and Social Security. Then let the fun begin!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 10:52:23 PM
Definitely over.  Turner wins as there are nearly as many Brooklyn precincts out as there are in Queens.  And Queens is basically 50-50.  Turner should have a victory margin of ~6000 votes.

Try 8000

Yup.  Weprin is still on pace to take a 55-44 drubbing, losing by about 7,500 votes out of 68,500.  Reason: Brooklyn's results are lagging Queens' and Weprin is doing slightly better than breakeven in Queens.

That's my math as well.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 10:53:06 PM
Yeah, Turner's won this. By a margin bigger than I expected, too (For what it is worth, I was predicting a 50-49 win for the GOP).

Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.

When are you guys not demoralized? ::) ;)

LLLOOOLLL


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 13, 2011, 10:53:30 PM
Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.

You guys have had some really rough few months. Time for a beer??

I don't really care about NY-09; it was NV-02 that really has me disappointed.

Thanks, but I don't drink! lol

Yeah, it's NV-2 that is the bigger story imho. Although there is still a lot to come in over there.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 13, 2011, 10:54:12 PM
Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.

You guys have had some really rough few months. Time for a beer??

I don't really care about NY-09; it was NV-02 that really has me disappointed.

Thanks, but I don't drink! lol

This


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 13, 2011, 10:54:27 PM
I just want one of Al's pretty maps when we get ED numbers.  NYC races are always fascinating.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 10:54:34 PM
Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.

You guys have had some really rough few months. Time for a beer??

I don't really care about NY-09; it was NV-02 that really has me disappointed.

Thanks, but I don't drink! lol

Yeah losing Washoe doesn't feel good either, I'm sure.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: rbt48 on September 13, 2011, 10:54:47 PM
Anyone have any results from the upstate NY AD races, districts 116 and 144?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 10:55:58 PM
A friend of mine: "President Obama is demanding that NY 9 go back to its Pre-1967 borders."


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 13, 2011, 10:56:10 PM
It's dangerous to over-analyse this sort of thing (and even more dangerous to project forward too far ahead wrt to the seat itself), but I think it's fair to say that this is not a good sign for Obama. Special factors can be reeled out to explain away a large part of it, I suppose (certainly the circumstances and the candidate didn't help), but, fundamentally, the Democratic Party should not loose immigrant-heavy districts in New York City (much as the contemporary Republican Party should not have lost certain districts in the Deep South a few years ago). If such a thing happens, panic is absolutely the wrong response (it is always the wrong response), what ought to happen is a careful reassessment of certain things...

That might look a little stream of consciousness, but consider the time out here by the banks of the Menai.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2011, 10:57:19 PM
Anyone have any results from the upstate NY AD races, districts 116 and 144?

Dems won both.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 10:58:20 PM
It's dangerous to over-analyse this sort of thing (and even more dangerous to project forward too far ahead wrt to the seat itself), but I think it's fair to say that this is not a good sign for Obama. Special factors can be reeled out to explain away a large part of it, I suppose (certainly the circumstances and the candidate didn't help), but, fundamentally, the Democratic Party should not loose immigrant-heavy districts in New York City (much as the contemporary Republican Party should not have lost certain districts in the Deep South a few years ago). If such a thing happens, panic is absolutely the wrong response (it is always the wrong response), what ought to happen is a careful reassessment of certain things...

That might look a little stream of consciousness, but consider the time out here by the banks of the Menai.

This is what I posted on the NV-02 thread: "The voters wanted to send Obama a message. Both CD's were national election statements. The Dems lost everything but the Obama base. Almost all the swing voters went GOP - and then some. That sometimes happens in special elections."


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 13, 2011, 10:59:02 PM
Oh, yeah. Losing safe seats in this way sucks. Not the end of the world though, even if it might briefly feel that way.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Psychic Octopus on September 13, 2011, 10:59:16 PM
Called for Turner. Now to see what the margin is... since we have only a little bit over a third out of Brooklyn, I am very curious as to what the final numbers will be.

Could Turner get to about 55% or so?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 13, 2011, 11:00:23 PM
Whether or not the Democrats do well in special elections is inconsequential to me at this point tbh. This result is disappointing to me because of the morally reprehensible way Turner campaigned, not because he's a "pubbie".


Title: AP calls it: Turner wins.
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 11:00:37 PM
()


O-shit.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 11:01:53 PM
AP just declared it for Turner.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 13, 2011, 11:02:12 PM
Now the Democrats can start planning how they are going to dismantle this seat. I will not be hard to totally vaporize it.

And I won't even get into why it makes zero sense to draw conclusions about national trends from special election results in House seats.

It's not like this is even a district full of liberal Democrats, it's mostly very conservative religious voters. What did the GOP really gain here?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 13, 2011, 11:02:43 PM
Oh, yeah. Losing safe seats in this way sucks. Not the end of the world though, even if it might briefly feel that way.

Well, Perry will be the next President. Whether that is the end of the world or not, I will leave it up to you. Of course if people think this is some sort of realignment (as opposed to voters pissed at everyone, mainly at the guys in charge currently).........


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 13, 2011, 11:03:50 PM

Haha, almost forgot how annoying you were. Congrats, Phil.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 11:04:12 PM
#But...SantorumStillLostBy18Points!!!!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 11:05:16 PM
Now the Democrats can start planning how they are going to dismantle this seat. I will not be hard to totally vaporize it.

And I won't even get into why it makes zero sense to draw conclusions about national trends from special election results in House seats.

It's not like this is even a district full of liberal Democrats, it's mostly very conservative religious voters. What did the GOP really gain here?

The Courts and the Pubbies are not going to allow eliminating  this seat. The Courts will eliminate the Carolyn McCarthy seat. It's quite obvious to me. Turner will inherit  a GOP bastion. It will be mostly in Brooklyn. He was just there at the right time. He's damn lucky.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 11:05:26 PM
Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 13, 2011, 11:05:36 PM
Maybe Mandoglove can be our next president. Don't stop believing Phil!!!


Title: Re: AP calls it: Turner wins.
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 13, 2011, 11:05:43 PM

Yeah, clearly it's all Obama's fault that the awful economy has caused voters to sour on him.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 11:06:28 PM
Called for Turner. Now to see what the margin is... since we have only a little bit over a third out of Brooklyn, I am very curious as to what the final numbers will be.

Could Turner get to about 55% or so?

Current straight line projection is 55-45 - though again, it seems to overproject the Brooklyn part of the district unless turnout was really higher there than Queens.  54% or 55% seems about right.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2011, 11:06:48 PM
Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

You're going to want to wipe all that sticky stuff off your keyboard before it dries.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 13, 2011, 11:07:13 PM
ITT: Republicans getting ahead of themselves. Remember this?

()


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on September 13, 2011, 11:07:59 PM
Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

Keep in mind that piece of Clark in NV-02 is heavily Republican rural and exurban voters.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on September 13, 2011, 11:08:08 PM
Unfortunate, but oh well. Our good track record in special elections had to stop at some point, eh?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 11:08:35 PM
ITT: Republicans getting ahead of themselves. Remember this?

()

Yeah, didn't I totally call this several pages ago. Yeah, great choice for spin. "We won a seat...a few months ago!"


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 11:09:14 PM
Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

The Clark County parts of NV-02 are very Pubbie. So I would not jack off on that alone. Washoe numbers are more interesting. It is a swingy county. It's final numbers should be very interesting.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 13, 2011, 11:09:27 PM
ITT: Republicans getting ahead of themselves. Remember this?

()

Yeah, didn't I totally call this several pages ago. Yeah, great choice for spin. "We won a seat...a few months ago!"

The point, you have missed it.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 11:10:37 PM
ITT: Republicans getting ahead of themselves. Remember this?

()

Yeah, didn't I totally call this several pages ago. Yeah, great choice for spin. "We won a seat...a few months ago!"

The point, you have missed it.

You won a seat thanks, in large part, due to a fake Tea Party candidate taking a good chunk of the vote. Unfortunately for you, the SWP candidate in NY 9 got a whopping...eh...0% of the vote.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 11:11:54 PM
Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

Keep in mind that piece of Clark in NV-02 is heavily Republican rural and exurban voters.

According to news reports I read before the race started they said the exact opposite.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 11:12:45 PM
Has Anthony Weiner tweeted his thoughts on this race yet?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on September 13, 2011, 11:12:52 PM
"Weprin gets on stage, says he's not conceding, rushes off without taking qs and gets off into car that sped off #ny9"

What the hell?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2011, 11:13:02 PM
Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

Keep in mind that piece of Clark in NV-02 is heavily Republican rural and exurban voters.

According to news reports I read before the race started they said the exact opposite.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/NV02_109.gif


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 13, 2011, 11:13:11 PM
I really think some in this thread at two steps away from declaring that Perry will win the state of New York by double digits. And the sad thing is, they'll actually fully believe that just based off of one House race in a very unique district with heavy religious factors.

Neither of these special election results say a thing about next year, not one single thing.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 11:13:38 PM
You can write off what is happening in Brooklyn to the Orthodox vote.  You can say Weprin wasn't a strong candidate (he was fairly strong).  However you cannot write off Queens for eith of those things.

If you are Obama, you have think that what happened in Queens is about you.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 13, 2011, 11:13:51 PM
Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

Keep in mind that piece of Clark in NV-02 is heavily Republican rural and exurban voters.

According to news reports I read before the race started they said the exact opposite.

The media doesn't know sh**t. Washoe is the one to watch. Those numbers predict the state.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 11:14:44 PM
"Weprin gets on stage, says he's not conceding, rushes off without taking qs and gets off into car that sped off #ny9"

What the hell?

Perfect!

This hasn't been embarrassing enough for the dangerous party. Let them dig the hole a little deeper.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: memphis on September 13, 2011, 11:14:57 PM
A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 11:15:07 PM
Courtesy of the Politico

"While the 2nd District is largely rural, it includes a sliver of blue Clark County that makes up about 7 percent of the district, including parts of Henderson and North Las Vegas. Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 5 points in this part of the district, an area where Democrats need high turnout from their base to prevail in next year’s presidential race, Senate race and a competitive Las Vegas-area House race.

If Marshall loses — or even underperforms — in Clark County, it could be a bad omen for Democrats like Obama, Senate candidate Shelley Berkley and numerous hopefuls eyeing runs in Las Vegas-area seats.

It could prove especially troubling because neither campaign has advertised in the more expensive Las Vegas media market that covers Clark County, so an Amodei win there either means that Republicans are disproportionately motivated to turn out or that Democrats are crossing party lines to vote for him — either is bad news for Democrats."



Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63288_Page2.html#ixzz1XtfqUTwC


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 13, 2011, 11:16:42 PM
PPP stated in their poll that Democrats were not turning out in NV-2. Presidential year turn out will be different.

Why is it so hard for logic to get through to some people?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 11:17:18 PM
OK, thanks Wonk. I was relying on something posted by someone a few days ago, that the NV-02 sliver of Clark was very GOP. Apparently the chap was in error.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on September 13, 2011, 11:17:23 PM
A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?
Never fails, does it?  Gore, Corwin, Weprin: all lost their bids after sex scandals.  I guess voting on the issues just isn't important, anymore.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 13, 2011, 11:17:36 PM
ITT: Republicans getting ahead of themselves. Remember this?

()

Yeah, didn't I totally call this several pages ago. Yeah, great choice for spin. "We won a seat...a few months ago!"

The point, you have missed it.

You won a seat thanks, in large part, due to a fake Tea Party candidate taking a good chunk of the vote. Unfortunately for you, the SWP candidate in NY 9 got a whopping...eh...0% of the vote.

The fake Tea Party candidate largely won his support from disaffected working class independents and Democrats who hated Corwin. If they were pushed, most of them wouldn't have voted and they would have likely broken for Hochul. Remember that Davis based most of his candidacy off of protectionism, and protecting SS/Medicare.

The point being that Republicans are not winning any of these races based off of their strengths but because the opposition party is less popular. Perry and Romney are still very unpopular, the GOP is still hated, most Republican Governors are still hated etc. This all with a an unpopular Democratic President. In otherwords, you guys have managed to cock it up frequently even with a great situation being served up to you on a silver platter. Once a President Perry or Romney is in office, the winds will shift hard. There is nothing to gloat about here. NY-26 was different because it proved that the Paul Ryan plan was as popular as child molestation and demolished any idea of Republicans triumphantly running on it. There was a clear effect on policy because of it. NY-9 will have no such blowback. I do hope that it makes Democratic strategists wake up and pay close attention to the white working class.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 13, 2011, 11:18:46 PM
I have to laugh because when AP called the race, NY1 was told Weprin would come out to concede.  Instead, five minutes later, he walked out, said "this race is not over yet because there are still many votes left" and made a quick beeline for the door.  I wish I had that video.  It was really funny.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 11:19:01 PM
I really think some in this thread at two steps away from declaring that Perry will win the state of New York by double digits. And the sad thing is, they'll actually fully believe that just based off of one House race in a very unique district with heavy religious factors.

Neither of these special election results say a thing about next year, not one single thing.

No, only someone dropping crazy statements on here for a while would accuse folks of thinking that way on here.

But I will say that a race like this does mean that the Philly suburbs are likely in play this year and that the Dems can't blindly count on Pennsylvania this year.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 11:19:48 PM
I have to laugh because when AP called the race, NY1 was told Weprin would come out to concede.  Instead, five minutes later, he walked out, said "this race is not over yet because there are still many votes left" and made a quick beeline for the door.  I wish I had that video.  It was really funny.

Is he an ahole?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 13, 2011, 11:20:25 PM
the GOP is still hated, most Republican Governors are still hated etc. This all with a an unpopular Democratic President. In otherwords, you guys have managed to cock it up frequently even with a great situation being served up to you on a silver platter. Once a President Perry or Romney is in office, the winds will shift hard.

So...your point is that Perry or Romney wouldn't win...then say that once they do win, they'll suffer. Got it. People still take you seriously around here?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 13, 2011, 11:20:41 PM
PPP stated in their poll that Democrats were not turning out in NV-2. Presidential year turn out will be different.

Why is it so hard for logic to get through to some people?

Oh, turnout will always be different (and much more predictable) come election time.

However, their poll in NV-2 was a mile off, so I wouldn't be reading too much into it.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 13, 2011, 11:21:34 PM
I have to laugh because when AP called the race, NY1 was told Weprin would come out to concede.  Instead, five minutes later, he walked out, said "this race is not over yet because there are still many votes left" and made a quick beeline for the door.  I wish I had that video.  It was really funny.

Is he an ahole?

I've never liked him, personally, but it was not a good showing.

I know that Lunar can back me up - he saw this too.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Napoleon on September 13, 2011, 11:21:54 PM
A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?
Never fails, does it?  Gore, Corwin, Weprin: all lost their bids after sex scandals.  I guess voting on the issues just isn't important, anymore.

That isn't a particularly logical conclusion to draw from that tiny bit of anecdotal evidence.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 11:21:58 PM
I really think some in this thread at two steps away from declaring that Perry will win the state of New York by double digits. And the sad thing is, they'll actually fully believe that just based off of one House race in a very unique district with heavy religious factors.

Neither of these special election results say a thing about next year, not one single thing.

No one has been foolish enough to make that claim yet. Calm down. The Presidency is still very much in play.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 11:22:45 PM
Turner closed a bit in Queens.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 13, 2011, 11:23:15 PM

No, only someone dropping crazy statements on here for a while would accuse folks of thinking that way on here.

But I will say that a race like this does mean that the Philly suburbs are likely in play this year and that the Dems can't blindly count on Pennsylvania this year.

I've seen some pretty out there predictions from Republicans here before, I'll just leave at that.

There is a difference difference between a House races and Presidential races. NY-9 was decided on Israel, probably almost totally.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 13, 2011, 11:24:22 PM
Courtesy of the Politico

"While the 2nd District is largely rural, it includes a sliver of blue Clark County that makes up about 7 percent of the district, including parts of Henderson and North Las Vegas. Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 5 points in this part of the district, an area where Democrats need high turnout from their base to prevail in next year’s presidential race, Senate race and a competitive Las Vegas-area House race.

If Marshall loses — or even underperforms — in Clark County, it could be a bad omen for Democrats like Obama, Senate candidate Shelley Berkley and numerous hopefuls eyeing runs in Las Vegas-area seats.

It could prove especially troubling because neither campaign has advertised in the more expensive Las Vegas media market that covers Clark County, so an Amodei win there either means that Republicans are disproportionately motivated to turn out or that Democrats are crossing party lines to vote for him — either is bad news for Democrats."



Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63288_Page2.html#ixzz1XtfqUTwC

Apparently Politico doesn't know where North Las Vegas is. If the district actually did contain North Las Vegas, and these were the results, it would be big, big trouble (like the Dems getting under 40% nationally). In other news, Marshall is losing Washoe by 10 points, and by extension the Democrats the state.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 11:24:46 PM
Is it just me or are the ones that want sh^t crazy posts all over this thread all Dems. There may be only like 4 of them, but they are all Dems.

I appreciate the other 90% of D's and I's on here that do write sane posts.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 11:26:37 PM

No, only someone dropping crazy statements on here for a while would accuse folks of thinking that way on here.

But I will say that a race like this does mean that the Philly suburbs are likely in play this year and that the Dems can't blindly count on Pennsylvania this year.

I've seen some pretty out there predictions from Republicans here before, I'll just leave at that.

There is a difference difference between a House races and Presidential races. NY-9 was decided on Israel, probably almost totally.

Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on September 13, 2011, 11:26:58 PM
A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?
Never fails, does it?  Gore, Corwin, Weprin: all lost their bids after sex scandals.  I guess voting on the issues just isn't important, anymore.

That isn't a particularly logical conclusion to draw from that tiny bit of anecdotal evidence.
Well, I'm not saying it's only because of scandal.  Still, it inevitably costs at least some votes for the party of the scandal.  If Clinton didn't have the scandal, Gore would've won.  If Lee and Weiner were forced to resign for things unrelated to sex (I don't know... say they get diagnosed for terminal cancer, or something), their parties probably would have retained the seats.  I know I sound superficial here, but that's just my opinion on it.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 13, 2011, 11:28:13 PM
the GOP is still hated, most Republican Governors are still hated etc. This all with a an unpopular Democratic President. In otherwords, you guys have managed to cock it up frequently even with a great situation being served up to you on a silver platter. Once a President Perry or Romney is in office, the winds will shift hard.

So...your point is that Perry or Romney wouldn't win...then say that once they do win, they'll suffer. Got it. People still take you seriously around here?

You're being willfully obtuse and aren't even responding to my main arguments. Welcome to the Ignore list where you belong!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 11:28:35 PM

No, only someone dropping crazy statements on here for a while would accuse folks of thinking that way on here.

But I will say that a race like this does mean that the Philly suburbs are likely in play this year and that the Dems can't blindly count on Pennsylvania this year.

I've seen some pretty out there predictions from Republicans here before, I'll just leave at that.

There is a difference difference between a House races and Presidential races. NY-9 was decided on Israel, probably almost totally.

Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.

Yes, this gay marriage thing was way overblown due to one of our posters who really cares about that issue. Sure it may have cost Welprin a couple of points. I think the Jews in NYC in this CD are more concerned about other Obama policies (think Middle East, Muslims, etc.), along with the economy like everyone else.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 11:28:44 PM
A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?
Never fails, does it?  Gore, Corwin, Weprin: all lost their bids after sex scandals.  I guess voting on the issues just isn't important, anymore.

That isn't a particularly logical conclusion to draw from that tiny bit of anecdotal evidence.
Well, I'm not saying it's only because of scandal.  Still, it inevitably costs at least some votes for the party of the scandal.  If Clinton didn't have the scandal, Gore would've won.  If Lee and Weiner were forced to resign for things unrelated to sex (I don't know... say they get diagnosed for terminal cancer, or something), their parties probably would have retained the seats.  I know I sound superficial here, but that's just my opinion on it.

Historically replacement candidates for scandal ridden politicians have performed quite well in historically safe seats so I am left scratching my head at that one.

And don't forget that Welprin's approval rating was much, much higher than Obama's in the district. So if Welprin's approval was taken down by the scandal of his predecessor, does that mean that Obama is lower than a sh*t stain on a mattress?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 13, 2011, 11:30:53 PM
Is it just me or are the ones that want sh^t crazy posts all over this thread all Dems. There may be only like 4 of them, but they are all Dems.

I appreciate the other 90% of D's and I's on here that do write sane posts.

Hopefully that wasn't directed at me. Just go take a look at the map of NV-2 in Clark County. It doesn't come close to the urban core of Las Vegas, or the Democratic stronghold of North Las Vegas. I stand by my statement, Politico doesn't know what it's talking about. Also look at the result out of Carson City. That's where you should be looking, where the people in the district actually live.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 13, 2011, 11:31:17 PM

Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.

You can leave the cursing out if you are posting to me, thank you very much. There are lots of conservative, religious Democrats all over the district, they are the ones who showed up. The district trended Republican last time around and it's not exactly a bellwether for anything. I don't think you should use it to predict presidential results.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 13, 2011, 11:32:49 PM
Is it just me or are the ones that want sh^t crazy posts all over this thread all Dems. There may be only like 4 of them, but they are all Dems.

I appreciate the other 90% of D's and I's on here that do write sane posts.

Hopefully that wasn't directed at me. Just go take a look at the map of NV-2 in Clark County. It doesn't come close to the urban core of Las Vegas, or the Democratic stronghold of North Las Vegas. I stand by my statement, Politico doesn't know what it's talking about.

I never mapped NV, so I for one can't opine on this. But it would seem that the Dem CD in Vegas would have sucked up most of the most Dem precincts, and then we have a second CD which sucked up the marginal ones, which leaves  ... ?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 13, 2011, 11:34:03 PM

Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.

You can leave the cursing out if you are posting to me, thank you very much. There are lots of conservative, religious Democrats all over the district, they are the ones who showed up. The district trended Republican last time around and it's not exactly a bellwether for anything. I don't think you should use it to predict presidential results.

Oh, come on. This is horrible news for the Dems. Deal with it.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 11:34:55 PM
Is it just me or are the ones that want sh^t crazy posts all over this thread all Dems. There may be only like 4 of them, but they are all Dems.

I appreciate the other 90% of D's and I's on here that do write sane posts.

Hopefully that wasn't directed at me. Just go take a look at the map of NV-2 in Clark County. It doesn't come close to the urban core of Las Vegas, or the Democratic stronghold of North Las Vegas. I stand by my statement, Politico doesn't know what it's talking about. Also look at the result out of Carson City. That's where you should be looking, where the people in the district actually live.

No it wasn't.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on September 13, 2011, 11:35:05 PM
Courtesy of the Politico

"While the 2nd District is largely rural, it includes a sliver of blue Clark County that makes up about 7 percent of the district, including parts of Henderson and North Las Vegas. Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 5 points in this part of the district, an area where Democrats need high turnout from their base to prevail in next year’s presidential race, Senate race and a competitive Las Vegas-area House race.

If Marshall loses — or even underperforms — in Clark County, it could be a bad omen for Democrats like Obama, Senate candidate Shelley Berkley and numerous hopefuls eyeing runs in Las Vegas-area seats.

It could prove especially troubling because neither campaign has advertised in the more expensive Las Vegas media market that covers Clark County, so an Amodei win there either means that Republicans are disproportionately motivated to turn out or that Democrats are crossing party lines to vote for him — either is bad news for Democrats."



Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63288_Page2.html#ixzz1XtfqUTwC

Apparently Politico doesn't know where North Las Vegas is. If the district actually did contain North Las Vegas, and these were the results, it would be big, big trouble (like the Dems getting under 40% nationally). In other news, Marshall is losing Washoe by 10 points, and by extension the Democrats the state.

lol, North Las Vegas.

Politico needs to get a clue.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 13, 2011, 11:36:29 PM
The Clark County portion of NV-2 voted for Obama by 54.8% to 43.5% and is the part of Clark County that shifted hardest towards Obama from Kerry due the housing bubble collapsing and in reality is much weaker for the Democrats than those numbers suggest.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 13, 2011, 11:36:56 PM

Heavy Jewish turnout according to Fox.
marriage protest vote


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Napoleon on September 13, 2011, 11:38:13 PM
A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?
Never fails, does it?  Gore, Corwin, Weprin: all lost their bids after sex scandals.  I guess voting on the issues just isn't important, anymore.

That isn't a particularly logical conclusion to draw from that tiny bit of anecdotal evidence.
Well, I'm not saying it's only because of scandal.  Still, it inevitably costs at least some votes for the party of the scandal.  If Clinton didn't have the scandal, Gore would've won.  If Lee and Weiner were forced to resign for things unrelated to sex (I don't know... say they get diagnosed for terminal cancer, or something), their parties probably would have retained the seats.  I know I sound superficial here, but that's just my opinion on it.

Historically replacement candidates for scandal ridden politicians have performed quite well in historically safe seats so I am left scratching my head at that one.

And don't forget that Welprin's approval rating was much, much higher than Obama's in the district. So if Welprin's approval was taken down by the scandal of his predecessor, does that mean that Obama is lower than a sh*t stain on a mattress?

D+5 isn't particularly safe especially given this district's obvious trends.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 13, 2011, 11:39:29 PM
Is it just me or are the ones that want sh^t crazy posts all over this thread all Dems. There may be only like 4 of them, but they are all Dems.

I appreciate the other 90% of D's and I's on here that do write sane posts.

Hopefully that wasn't directed at me. Just go take a look at the map of NV-2 in Clark County. It doesn't come close to the urban core of Las Vegas, or the Democratic stronghold of North Las Vegas. I stand by my statement, Politico doesn't know what it's talking about.

I never mapped NV, so I for one can't opine on this. But it would seem that the Dem CD in Vegas would have sucked up most of the most Dem precincts, and then we have a second CD which sucked up the marginal ones, which leaves  ... ?

Just look here. The district contains rural areas, Nellis AFB, and some rich looking suburbia to the south of town.
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 13, 2011, 11:40:17 PM


Oh, come on. This is horrible news for the Dems. Deal with it.

That is your opinion. I just don't think you should take a special election for a House seat and turn it into a narrative about the Presidential election, it doesn't work when either side does it. You can't expect everyone to subscribe to the same opinion.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on September 13, 2011, 11:41:09 PM
Did none of you read that article that Lunar posted that described how poorly Democrats did among Jews in Brooklyn in 2010? This kind of a shift was bound to happen here at some point, the national climate and a lackluster campaign just brought it to the forefront quicker.

Keep in my mind that I've been arguing on DKE that the defeats in NV-2 and NY-9 are largely due to Obama's unpopularity and the poor economy with attention being deflected away from entitlements.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 13, 2011, 11:41:53 PM


Oh, come on. This is horrible news for the Dems. Deal with it.

That is your opinion. I just don't think you should take a special election for a House seat and turn it into a narrative about the Presidential election, it doesn't work when either side does it. You can't expect everyone to subscribe to the same opinion.

Have you been following the Nevada election? I wonder how the Dems will do in Solano County next year. If Garamendi runs in that seat, which also contains Yuba and Sutter Counties, he could be in trouble.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 11:47:19 PM

Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.

You can leave the cursing out if you are posting to me, thank you very much. There are lots of conservative, religious Democrats all over the district, they are the ones who showed up. The district trended Republican last time around and it's not exactly a bellwether for anything. I don't think you should use it to predict presidential results.

Hey this is right here is what separates you from other folks on this thread. Of course we would all like to be good team players and spin things our losses in the most positive light, but some of us actually have allegiance to calling these things based on how they actually are even when they lose. Apparently you don't.

I don't how you try to spin this thing. Between the polls with Obama's approval ratings in this district and the horrid performance in Queens you can't possibly spin your way out of the fact that Obama played a pretty big roll in this loss. Clearly he isn't particularly liked right now there. That doesn't mean he wont be liked in the future, that doesn't mean he wasn't liked in the past. But today he just cost you a congressional seat...Deal with it!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 13, 2011, 11:48:58 PM
Is it just me or are the ones that want sh^t crazy posts all over this thread all Dems. There may be only like 4 of them, but they are all Dems.

I appreciate the other 90% of D's and I's on here that do write sane posts.

Hopefully that wasn't directed at me. Just go take a look at the map of NV-2 in Clark County. It doesn't come close to the urban core of Las Vegas, or the Democratic stronghold of North Las Vegas. I stand by my statement, Politico doesn't know what it's talking about.

I never mapped NV, so I for one can't opine on this. But it would seem that the Dem CD in Vegas would have sucked up most of the most Dem precincts, and then we have a second CD which sucked up the marginal ones, which leaves  ... ?

Just look here. The district contains rural areas, Nellis AFB, and some rich looking suburbia to the south of town.
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd

Including a very small sliver of the city of North Las Vegas (basically, the triangle bounded by NV 610, NV 573 and I-15.  Much of the rest near Nellis is probably unincorporated Clark County with a Las Vegas zip code.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 11:49:07 PM
A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?
Never fails, does it?  Gore, Corwin, Weprin: all lost their bids after sex scandals.  I guess voting on the issues just isn't important, anymore.

That isn't a particularly logical conclusion to draw from that tiny bit of anecdotal evidence.
Well, I'm not saying it's only because of scandal.  Still, it inevitably costs at least some votes for the party of the scandal.  If Clinton didn't have the scandal, Gore would've won.  If Lee and Weiner were forced to resign for things unrelated to sex (I don't know... say they get diagnosed for terminal cancer, or something), their parties probably would have retained the seats.  I know I sound superficial here, but that's just my opinion on it.

Historically replacement candidates for scandal ridden politicians have performed quite well in historically safe seats so I am left scratching my head at that one.

And don't forget that Welprin's approval rating was much, much higher than Obama's in the district. So if Welprin's approval was taken down by the scandal of his predecessor, does that mean that Obama is lower than a sh*t stain on a mattress?

D+5 isn't particularly safe especially given this district's obvious trends.

I would agree with that, but I would also like to hear other folks thoughts about what is going on with a PVI of only D+5 when there is a 3 to 1 registration advantage between Dems and GOP.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on September 13, 2011, 11:49:47 PM
A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?
Never fails, does it?  Gore, Corwin, Weprin: all lost their bids after sex scandals.  I guess voting on the issues just isn't important, anymore.

That isn't a particularly logical conclusion to draw from that tiny bit of anecdotal evidence.
Well, I'm not saying it's only because of scandal.  Still, it inevitably costs at least some votes for the party of the scandal.  If Clinton didn't have the scandal, Gore would've won.  If Lee and Weiner were forced to resign for things unrelated to sex (I don't know... say they get diagnosed for terminal cancer, or something), their parties probably would have retained the seats.  I know I sound superficial here, but that's just my opinion on it.

Historically replacement candidates for scandal ridden politicians have performed quite well in historically safe seats so I am left scratching my head at that one.

And don't forget that Welprin's approval rating was much, much higher than Obama's in the district. So if Welprin's approval was taken down by the scandal of his predecessor, does that mean that Obama is lower than a sh*t stain on a mattress?

D+5 isn't particularly safe especially given this district's obvious trends.

I would agree with that, but I would also like to hear other folks thoughts about what is going on with a PVI of only D+5 when there is a 3 to 1 registration advantage between Dems and GOP.
Bad turnout, conservative Democrats, and Israel lovers.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 13, 2011, 11:51:07 PM
Yes, Turner has won. Queens has only about 25 precincts that McCain carried, and the Brooklyn portion is very Pubbie. It's totally over. And Turner will end up with a much more GOP district next time, because thanks to the VRA, most of it will be in Brooklyn. Yes Brooklyn. Trust me. . Weiner really F the Dems doing what he did at redistricting time. It should be at least a 10% margin, maybe more. It's a blowout. I wonder what repercussions it will have?

()

()


It depends on how well Turner does in Queens.  You can say Brooklyn was do to the Orthodox angry on same sex marriage and support for Israel (for some).  Queens in another story.
large Orthodox Population in Kew Garden Hills, Hilcreast, parts of Forrest hills and Kew Gardens.

great night at the victory center (just for the record there didn't seem to be any Wasps there.)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2011, 11:51:28 PM


That is your opinion. I just don't think you should take a special election for a House seat and turn it into a narrative about the Presidential election, it doesn't work when either side does it. You can't expect everyone to subscribe to the same opinion.

A fire bell in the night.  I wonder if they'll hear it at the White House?



Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 13, 2011, 11:53:13 PM

That is your opinion. I just don't think you should take a special election for a House seat and turn it into a narrative about the Presidential election, it doesn't work when either side does it. You can't expect everyone to subscribe to the same opinion.

Have you been following the Nevada election? I wonder how the Dems will do in Solano County next year. If Garamendi runs in that seat, which also contains Yuba and Sutter Counties, he could be in trouble.
[/quote]

The Nevada seat was a Republican seat, it went Republican, the result was not a surprise to me.

Republicans didn't gain anything in California in 2010, one of their best years, that doesn't say much for the future. Garamendi has represented Republican areas in the past, he'll be fine there, D+3 is close to safe for California Dems.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 13, 2011, 11:54:00 PM
A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?
Never fails, does it?  Gore, Corwin, Weprin: all lost their bids after sex scandals.  I guess voting on the issues just isn't important, anymore.

That isn't a particularly logical conclusion to draw from that tiny bit of anecdotal evidence.
Well, I'm not saying it's only because of scandal.  Still, it inevitably costs at least some votes for the party of the scandal.  If Clinton didn't have the scandal, Gore would've won.  If Lee and Weiner were forced to resign for things unrelated to sex (I don't know... say they get diagnosed for terminal cancer, or something), their parties probably would have retained the seats.  I know I sound superficial here, but that's just my opinion on it.

Historically replacement candidates for scandal ridden politicians have performed quite well in historically safe seats so I am left scratching my head at that one.

And don't forget that Welprin's approval rating was much, much higher than Obama's in the district. So if Welprin's approval was taken down by the scandal of his predecessor, does that mean that Obama is lower than a sh*t stain on a mattress?

D+5 isn't particularly safe especially given this district's obvious trends.

I would agree with that, but I would also like to hear other folks thoughts about what is going on with a PVI of only D+5 when there is a 3 to 1 registration advantage between Dems and GOP.
Bad turnout, conservative Democrats, and Israel lovers.

Again that can explain Brooklyn, but it can't explain Queens. Also my question wasn't about this race but why going into this race a district with a 3 to 1 registration advantage for Dems is only D+5. Anybody want to shed some light on that?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 13, 2011, 11:55:01 PM
If Weprin loses, it's looking like a Massachusetts repeat: another Democrat who assumes it's just "in the bag" because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans, and just sleeps around in his campaign office all day expecting a good race.  It's also no help that the voters didn't get to vote in primaries for this one.
fool it was the fact that Weprin lost many of his otherwise bases votes over marriage.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Napoleon on September 13, 2011, 11:56:55 PM
The Democratic machine holds the power...it is an identity for many Jewish people. Look at Ed Koch endorsing GWB, national issues and local machine politics can make registration an illusion, particularly among non-WASPs.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 13, 2011, 11:57:14 PM
If Weprin loses, it's looking like a Massachusetts repeat: another Democrat who assumes it's just "in the bag" because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans, and just sleeps around in his campaign office all day expecting a good race.  It's also no help that the voters didn't get to vote in primaries for this one.
fool it was the fact that Weprin lost many of his otherwise bases votes over marriage.

Did you just call another poster "fool"? Really?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 13, 2011, 11:59:23 PM

Hey this is right here is what separates you from other folks on this thread. Of course we would all like to be good team players and spin things our losses in the most positive light, but some of us actually have allegiance to calling these things based on how they actually are even when they lose. Apparently you don't.

I don't how you try to spin this thing. Between the polls with Obama's approval ratings in this district and the horrid performance in Queens you can't possibly spin your way out of the fact that Obama played a pretty big roll in this loss. Clearly he isn't particularly liked right now there. That doesn't mean he wont be liked in the future, that doesn't mean he wasn't liked in the past. But today he just cost you a congressional seat...Deal with it!

My point is, it's not a bellwether. Yes, Obama's approval was a factor, but Israel was also one, as was the candidate. By placing it squarely on Obama, you concede it wasn't based on the Republican candidate's merits. Thanks for making a valid point.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on September 14, 2011, 12:00:17 AM
A scandal can make a previously safe seat in play. Who knew?
Never fails, does it?  Gore, Corwin, Weprin: all lost their bids after sex scandals.  I guess voting on the issues just isn't important, anymore.

That isn't a particularly logical conclusion to draw from that tiny bit of anecdotal evidence.
Well, I'm not saying it's only because of scandal.  Still, it inevitably costs at least some votes for the party of the scandal.  If Clinton didn't have the scandal, Gore would've won.  If Lee and Weiner were forced to resign for things unrelated to sex (I don't know... say they get diagnosed for terminal cancer, or something), their parties probably would have retained the seats.  I know I sound superficial here, but that's just my opinion on it.

Historically replacement candidates for scandal ridden politicians have performed quite well in historically safe seats so I am left scratching my head at that one.

And don't forget that Welprin's approval rating was much, much higher than Obama's in the district. So if Welprin's approval was taken down by the scandal of his predecessor, does that mean that Obama is lower than a sh*t stain on a mattress?

D+5 isn't particularly safe especially given this district's obvious trends.

I would agree with that, but I would also like to hear other folks thoughts about what is going on with a PVI of only D+5 when there is a 3 to 1 registration advantage between Dems and GOP.
Bad turnout, conservative Democrats, and Israel lovers.

Again that can explain Brooklyn, but it can't explain Queens. Also my question wasn't about this race but why going into this race a district with a 3 to 1 registration advantage for Dems is only D+5. Anybody want to shed some light on that?
I think PVI takes more than just voter registration into account, if that's what you're asking about.  It includes trends and how well candidates perform usually, too.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 14, 2011, 12:01:53 AM
PVI is only a measurement of the Presidential numbers over two elections.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 14, 2011, 12:02:52 AM
By the way looking at the Nevada map, CD 2 definitely does include a decent portion of North Las Vegas and its pretty safe to say that most of the 6,000 votes came from part of Clark county since the southern part is very rural. I mean there is like one road throughout that part and a couple very tiny towns.

That was North Las Vegas they just got creamed in.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 12:04:27 AM
Turner now at 54 and Weprin 46.



Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Reaganfan on September 14, 2011, 12:06:06 AM
I'm sitting here at 1am just outta work with some Taco Bell®  and am very pleased to see America continue a slow but sure push in a conservative direction.

I look forward to crying faces in Grant Park next fall, only this time, during a concession speech.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 14, 2011, 12:07:44 AM
PVI is only a measurement of the Presidential numbers over two elections.

I'm aware of this. One decent answer was given above, but I'll rephrase the question. Why do you think that such a strong Democrat district would be voting as close to the middle as it is in the last few elections?

What is happening on the ground?

Is everybody in agreement that its an identity thing. Its expected to be a registered Dem in that area, but only after that you vote what makes sense to you? Leading to the large disparity?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 14, 2011, 12:08:35 AM
I'm sitting here at 1am just outta work with some Taco Bell®  and am very pleased to see America continue a slow but sure push in a conservative direction.

I look forward to crying faces in Grant Park next fall, only this time, during a concession speech.

Thanks for the daily update, Naso!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on September 14, 2011, 12:12:06 AM
pleased to see America continue a slow but sure push in a conservative direction.
Can we stop with this "America is moving in X direction" crap, please?  The pendulum didn't swing the Democrats' way this time over Israel, and because we had an uncharismatic candidate.  One race does not set what's going to happen for the entire country.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 14, 2011, 12:13:49 AM
PVI is only a measurement of the Presidential numbers over two elections.

I'm aware of this. One decent answer was given above, but I'll rephrase the question. Why do you think that such a strong Democrat district would be voting as close to the middle as it is in the last few elections?

What is happening on the ground?

Is everybody in agreement that its an identity thing. Its expected to be a registered Dem in that area, but only after that you vote what makes sense to you? Leading to the large disparity?

Look at the trend lines, the district got less Democratic, from D+14 to just D+5. It's always had more conservative Democrats on average, but a shift has occurred, much like many districts in the South have had.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 12:14:09 AM
marriage wins this election

http://blogs.villagevoice.com/runninscared/2011/09/david_weprin_loses.php


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Napoleon on September 14, 2011, 12:14:27 AM
pleased to see America continue a slow but sure push in a conservative direction.
Can we stop with this "America is moving in X direction" crap, please?  The pendulum didn't swing the Democrats' way this time over Israel, and because we had an uncharismatic candidate.  One race does not set what's going to happen for the entire country.

Well, maybe. But these elections obviously foreshadow things. Take Scott Brown, for example.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 14, 2011, 12:14:45 AM
I projected on my spreadsheet assuming all the remaining precincts are the same size as those which came in, and the votes counted will be the same break as those already counted in Brooklyn and Queens respectively, and came up with this - an 8% to 9% margin for Turner. It dropped a bit because the Turner percentage margin in Brooklyn has dropped a bit. About 15% of the precincts are left to be counted.

37551   54.4%  Turner
31481   45.6%  Welprin
   
69032   8.8%  margin




Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on September 14, 2011, 12:16:34 AM
pleased to see America continue a slow but sure push in a conservative direction.
Can we stop with this "America is moving in X direction" crap, please?  The pendulum didn't swing the Democrats' way this time over Israel, and because we had an uncharismatic candidate.  One race does not set what's going to happen for the entire country.

Well, maybe. But these elections obviously foreshadow things. Take Scott Brown, for example.
I know that, but it's like people who said Obama's victory pushed us in a left direction, as if that would be a permanent trend for the country.  Both sides eventually find themselves very disappointed after saying things like that.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 12:17:52 AM

No, only someone dropping crazy statements on here for a while would accuse folks of thinking that way on here.

But I will say that a race like this does mean that the Philly suburbs are likely in play this year and that the Dems can't blindly count on Pennsylvania this year.

I've seen some pretty out there predictions from Republicans here before, I'll just leave at that.

There is a difference difference between a House races and Presidential races. NY-9 was decided on Israel, probably almost totally.

Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.

this was won by Obama in the non Orthodox white areas (not enough to win even if Orthodox support was at 50% Weprin would have won 90% of the Orthodox vote if not for his social agenda)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 12:22:25 AM

No, only someone dropping crazy statements on here for a while would accuse folks of thinking that way on here.

But I will say that a race like this does mean that the Philly suburbs are likely in play this year and that the Dems can't blindly count on Pennsylvania this year.

I've seen some pretty out there predictions from Republicans here before, I'll just leave at that.

There is a difference difference between a House races and Presidential races. NY-9 was decided on Israel, probably almost totally.

Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.

Yes, this gay marriage thing was way overblown due to one of our posters who really cares about that issue. Sure it may have cost Welprin a couple of points. I think the Jews in NYC in this CD are more concerned about other Obama policies (think Middle East, Muslims, etc.), along with the economy like everyone else.
there is no way in the world Weprin would have lost the Orthodox vote (most likely would have gotten in the 90% range) much less get clobbered at what I heard from a reliable source went around 85% in some places (ED's).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 14, 2011, 12:22:37 AM
PVI is only a measurement of the Presidential numbers over two elections.

I'm aware of this. One decent answer was given above, but I'll rephrase the question. Why do you think that such a strong Democrat district would be voting as close to the middle as it is in the last few elections?

What is happening on the ground?

Is everybody in agreement that its an identity thing. Its expected to be a registered Dem in that area, but only after that you vote what makes sense to you? Leading to the large disparity?

Look at the trend lines, the district got less Democratic, from D+14 to just D+5. It's always had more conservative Democrats on average, but a shift has occurred, much like many districts in the South have had.

But this district isn't anything like a southern district populated with conservative Dems 20 YEARS AGO! Nor is it like Appalachia districts, the Iron Range, or Blue Collar districts in the Rust Belt.

This district shares a lot in common economically with economically well off close suburbs that have been trending Dem up until 2010 except that it has a Jewish population that agrees with right on some social and foreign policy issues.

But I ask you this. The Jewish vote has historically been 75-25 Dem if not worse, do you really think that trend is going to continue after this election? What is all that different between Jewish voters in this district and Jewish voters in Florida?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 12:24:23 AM
if anyone was wondering the true reason why Koch endorse Turner it was to try and make sure this wasn't a public referendum on gay marriage (which it clearly was is certain parts of it (that brings in thousands of votes))


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 14, 2011, 12:24:43 AM
pleased to see America continue a slow but sure push in a conservative direction.
Can we stop with this "America is moving in X direction" crap, please?  The pendulum didn't swing the Democrats' way this time over Israel, and because we had an uncharismatic candidate.  One race does not set what's going to happen for the entire country.

Well, maybe. But these elections obviously foreshadow things. Take Scott Brown, for example.
I know that, but it's like people who said Obama's victory pushed us in a left direction, as if that would be a permanent trend for the country.  Both sides eventually find themselves very disappointed after saying things like that.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that you were probably one of those people that said that or at least believed it for a while.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 14, 2011, 12:28:39 AM
Yup, and the Democrats are favored, it's a Democratic-leaning district and Republicans only have of handful of districts that Democratic throughout the country.

I'm just saying the Democrats can't treat this seat like it's a joke and nominate whomever.  I don't expect them to.  Hopefully that part is understood, so no need to make a bunch of "Lunar was wrong!" posts when the D's win this one ;)

Special elections CAN be funky and surprising though, if recent history is any indication

I thought Weprin was going to win at the time he was chosen though, to be fair.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 14, 2011, 12:30:10 AM

But this district isn't anything like a southern district populated with conservative Dems 20 YEARS AGO! Nor is it like Appalachia districts, the Iron Range, or Blue Collar districts in the Rust Belt.

This district shares a lot in common economically with economically well off close suburbs that have been trending Dem up until 2010 except that it has a Jewish population that agrees with right on some social and foreign policy issues.

But I ask you this. The Jewish vote has historically been 75-25 Dem if not worse, do you really think that trend is going to continue after this election? What is all that different between Jewish voters in this district and Jewish voters in Florida?

In being socially conservative, it is like some southern districts, which hinged on those issues.

Mainly Orthodox Jews are heavily present in the district, Jewish voters in Florida are not largely Orthodox and lean more liberal overall.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on September 14, 2011, 12:30:53 AM
pleased to see America continue a slow but sure push in a conservative direction.
Can we stop with this "America is moving in X direction" crap, please?  The pendulum didn't swing the Democrats' way this time over Israel, and because we had an uncharismatic candidate.  One race does not set what's going to happen for the entire country.

Well, maybe. But these elections obviously foreshadow things. Take Scott Brown, for example.
I know that, but it's like people who said Obama's victory pushed us in a left direction, as if that would be a permanent trend for the country.  Both sides eventually find themselves very disappointed after saying things like that.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that you were probably one of those people that said that or at least believed it for a while.
No, actually.  I thought the Democrats were in a pretty good position for a few years, but they would lose at least a couple elections in the future.  It can't be that good for one party forever.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 14, 2011, 12:32:37 AM
Is the Dem machine in these parts toothless? Just asking. Welprin seemed to think he could get a disproportionate Dem turnout in a low turnout election. Maybe he did, and that is why he didn't lose by 15%.  :)  Or maybe it is BS. Any opinions?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 14, 2011, 12:33:19 AM
Great job, Obama, keep up the good work. Toothless moderate heroism has done wonders for the Democratic brand.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 14, 2011, 12:33:44 AM
Eric Ulrich has taken himself out of consideration for the Republican nomination. (http://www.ny1.com/content/top_stories/142293/ny1-exclusive--councilman-eric-ulrich-rules-out-run-in-congressional-special-election) Sorry, krazen, your dreams of picking up this seat are slipping through your fingers.

Orly.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 14, 2011, 12:35:13 AM
I actually think Turner might this one.

If he does it will be because Weprin's position in favor of marriage redefinition.

I give you credit, sir. You called it a long time ago.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 12:35:49 AM
Did none of you read that article that Lunar posted that described how poorly Democrats did among Jews in Brooklyn in 2010? This kind of a shift was bound to happen here at some point, the national climate and a lackluster campaign just brought it to the forefront quicker.

Keep in my mind that I've been arguing on DKE that the defeats in NV-2 and NY-9 are largely due to Obama's unpopularity and the poor economy with attention being deflected away from entitlements.

have you ever spoken to the jews in Brooklyn this was solely due to the marriage vote. (many of the Israel voters (keep in mind many people don't see any difference between Turner and Weprin on that subject ) were to PC or afraid to say marriage redefinition but that's not what I heard when people heard the results)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on September 14, 2011, 12:36:21 AM
I actually think Turner might this one.

If he does it will be because Weprin's position in favor of marriage redefinition.

I give you credit, sir. You called it a long time ago.
Don't feed the trolls.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 14, 2011, 12:42:52 AM
See that is where your way off. This district is extremely different than a Southern district. Most Southern districts trended way to the right in the 90s. They are protestant Christian not orthodox Jewish with a handful of Catholic. They are surrounded by other conservatives and this district is surrounded by liberals. They are in low cost of living towns and this district is in a very expensive suburb of one of the largest cities in the world.

Historically, Dem politician after politician has been pretty crappy towards Israel yet the Jewish voters don't ditch. Historically Dem politician after politician have taken very socially liberal positions and yet Jewish voters don't ditch.

What made this the election where all of sudden those issues were the be all and end all when before Jews had an economy where they had the luxury to be exclusively focused on social issues. Now they have a bad economy and all of sudden gay marriage and Israel are extremely important? Something doesn't compute.

The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and
B) Is the Jewish vote going to start coming close to even in at least the upcoming election?

Those are real questions and given the fact that elections like these are the only glimpses we are going to get into these questions before 12 then they are important in understanding the electorate that is shaping here.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 01:05:15 AM
PVI is only a measurement of the Presidential numbers over two elections.

I'm aware of this. One decent answer was given above, but I'll rephrase the question. Why do you think that such a strong Democrat district would be voting as close to the middle as it is in the last few elections?

What is happening on the ground?

Is everybody in agreement that its an identity thing. Its expected to be a registered Dem in that area, but only after that you vote what makes sense to you? Leading to the large disparity?
The Orthodox Jewish political establishment (who were largely missing from this race) recommends everyone register democrat to have a say in local elections


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 14, 2011, 01:17:09 AM

But this district isn't anything like a southern district populated with conservative Dems 20 YEARS AGO! Nor is it like Appalachia districts, the Iron Range, or Blue Collar districts in the Rust Belt.

This district shares a lot in common economically with economically well off close suburbs that have been trending Dem up until 2010 except that it has a Jewish population that agrees with right on some social and foreign policy issues.

But I ask you this. The Jewish vote has historically been 75-25 Dem if not worse, do you really think that trend is going to continue after this election? What is all that different between Jewish voters in this district and Jewish voters in Florida?

In being socially conservative, it is like some southern districts, which hinged on those issues.

Mainly Orthodox Jews are heavily present in the district, Jewish voters in Florida are not largely Orthodox and lean more liberal overall.

By the way do you have any data to show that the very elderly Jewish population in Florida is not very Orthodox and the younger Jewish population in NYC is?

Also keep in mind that Orthodox Jewish stronghold is in Brooklyn, not in Queens. Care to explain what happened with those non Orthodox Jews in east Queens?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 01:24:24 AM

But this district isn't anything like a southern district populated with conservative Dems 20 YEARS AGO! Nor is it like Appalachia districts, the Iron Range, or Blue Collar districts in the Rust Belt.

This district shares a lot in common economically with economically well off close suburbs that have been trending Dem up until 2010 except that it has a Jewish population that agrees with right on some social and foreign policy issues.

But I ask you this. The Jewish vote has historically been 75-25 Dem if not worse, do you really think that trend is going to continue after this election? What is all that different between Jewish voters in this district and Jewish voters in Florida?

In being socially conservative, it is like some southern districts, which hinged on those issues.

Mainly Orthodox Jews are heavily present in the district, Jewish voters in Florida are not largely Orthodox and lean more liberal overall.
Orthodox Jews are probably the fastest growing natural demographic in the country.
9% of all jew in Miami were Orthodox in 2004
(Orthodox households are much larger so this lessens there numbers)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 01:46:11 AM

But this district isn't anything like a southern district populated with conservative Dems 20 YEARS AGO! Nor is it like Appalachia districts, the Iron Range, or Blue Collar districts in the Rust Belt.

This district shares a lot in common economically with economically well off close suburbs that have been trending Dem up until 2010 except that it has a Jewish population that agrees with right on some social and foreign policy issues.

But I ask you this. The Jewish vote has historically been 75-25 Dem if not worse, do you really think that trend is going to continue after this election? What is all that different between Jewish voters in this district and Jewish voters in Florida?

In being socially conservative, it is like some southern districts, which hinged on those issues.

Mainly Orthodox Jews are heavily present in the district, Jewish voters in Florida are not largely Orthodox and lean more liberal overall.

By the way do you have any data to show that the very elderly Jewish population in Florida is not very Orthodox and the younger Jewish population in NYC is?


all from 2004 Miami Jewish Study
39.7% of Orthodox Jews have lived in Miami for more then 20 years, 60.4% for Conservative Jews, 69.8 for Reform Jews, 63.8 for Just Jewish.

Jewish Identification
number of people in Households
1 2 3 4 5 6+ 4+ Average 1 Sample Size Number of Households
                    1 person    2      3     4     5     6+    4+   Avg num                                         
Orthodox        26.0% 34.5 11.3  9.9  10.6 7.7 28.2% 2.8001
Conservative  32.1% 37.1 12.7 10.1 6.2  1.8  18.1% 2.2662
Reform            32.3% 39.7 11.5 11.0 4.1  1.4  16.5% 2.1967
Just Jewish     35.6% 38.4 12.8  8.1  4.5  0.6  13.2%  2.0972

                                    Orthodox Conservative Reform  just Jewish
Household with Children 34.9%          22.0%     20.7%   17.3%

under the age of 35
Orthodox     16.7%
Conservative 11.5%
Reform 8.2%
Just Jewish 11.4%
All 11.2%


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 01:46:37 AM

Also keep in mind that Orthodox Jewish stronghold is in Brooklyn, not in Queens. Care to explain what happened with those non Orthodox Jews in east Queens?

first of all there are many Orthodox strongholds in queens
second there was a very strong anti Obama sentiment in this district (both Jewish (not just Orthodox) and Catholic neighborhoods) but it would never have materialized in to a win if Weprin would have a decent social record because then he wouldn't have drove his base in to Turner's hand.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 02:05:09 AM
Historically, Dem politician after politician has been pretty crappy towards Israel yet the Jewish voters don't ditch. Historically Dem politician after politician have taken very socially liberal positions and yet Jewish voters don't ditch.


1. Orthodox Jews (Russian Jews are also not but there in a category to themselves) are not like other Jews they have been swing voters for years (Orthodox Jews voted for Reagan, and Giuliani, and abandoned Solarz over social issues, it gets even more glaring in the past 10 years)

2. Obama is widely considered in all non liberal jewish circles (Orthodox, and Russians plus a little bit of the second generation immigrants still alive ) to be a big anti semite (I don't want to turn this into a discussion about Israel I don't think I'll get any father on that one then I did on the marriage issue just except it as the facts because even if their wrong they will vote that way)
3. The Orthodox Jewish community (though many times it has voted based on social issues) is furious over the passage of the marriage destruction bill and is now more willing to be one issue voters. (Weprin's extras on this issue really hurt him) (further more once Jews saw this race was winnable it ended a long standing tradition in certain circles of voting for the front-runner)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 14, 2011, 04:33:00 AM
Looks like we're stalled at 54% to 46%, with 88% reporting. G'night!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2011, 05:19:37 AM
My prediction for NY-09:

54.19% Turner (R)
45.24% Weprim (D)
  0.57% Others

I'm happy with that so far ... :P


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Guderian on September 14, 2011, 06:04:24 AM


The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and


Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 14, 2011, 06:25:07 AM


The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and


Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 06:32:27 AM


The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and


Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.

Actually, Rasmussen generic ballot has put the R's ahead for at least a year.  The D's were lower over the summer than at the 2010 elections.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 14, 2011, 06:52:48 AM


The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and


Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.

Actually, Rasmussen generic ballot has put the R's ahead for at least a year.  The D's were lower over the summer than at the 2010 elections.

Rasmussen? Is that a polling company? Have they any relation with NATO's secretary general?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 07:01:50 AM


The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and


Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.

Actually, Rasmussen generic ballot has put the R's ahead for at least a year.  The D's were lower over the summer than at the 2010 elections.

Rasmussen? Is that a polling company? Have they any relation with NATO's secretary general?

Yes, one of the more accurate ones.  You data is from from where, the Twilight Zone.  The Democrats have not led since 2009.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 07:04:27 AM
J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

The same thing can apply to their supporters.
 


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 14, 2011, 09:15:57 AM
Couple of points:

1. The district is not entirely Jewish (it isn't even majority Jewish; working off the ACS data I posted way up thread, only 68.6% of the district is white and Italian and Irish ancestries came out at 20.7%. Of course there can be double counting in the latter, but my point isn't hard to grasp, I hope), not all Jews in the district are Orthodox, and not all Orthodox Jews in the district are the sort that wear those nifty black hats and vote with such remarkable discipline when an election is deemed to matter. So you can't just point to specifically Jewish (and by that you actually mean specifically Orthodox and/or Soviet and so on; basically an Other, I suppose) and pin this defeat on that. Obviously when a key swing block says 'fyck you', there's trouble ahead. But it is not enough on its own, not when its perfectly possible for a Democrat to win this district while losing such voters by miles.

2. It's not an affluent suburban district either, even if does have a few affluent residential areas here and there. This is a basically working class district with some richer parts and a massive immigrant population (only a minority of its inhabitants speak English as a first language ffs). It's certainly not poverty stricken and is less working class (significantly so) than most of the districts it borders, but then it's in Brooklyn and Queens.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 14, 2011, 09:19:55 AM


The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and


Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.

Clearly you were just talking out of your a$$ here because the Dems are getting crushed in the generic congressional ballot for a very long time.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 09:29:52 AM


The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and


Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.

Clearly you were just talking out of your a$$ here because the Dems are getting crushed in the generic congressional ballot for a very long time.

The last time the D's were ahead on the generic ballot, it was June 2009.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

but you have to back to here to see it:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 09:33:23 AM
Anybody have the racial make up of the district, especially the Queens section?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 14, 2011, 09:33:49 AM
By the way looking at the Nevada map, CD 2 definitely does include a decent portion of North Las Vegas and its pretty safe to say that most of the 6,000 votes came from part of Clark county since the southern part is very rural. I mean there is like one road throughout that part and a couple very tiny towns.

That was North Las Vegas they just got creamed in.

Ok, mapped things out on DRA. The district contains about 86,000 residents in Clark County. Of them only 27,000 live in North Las Vegas, excluding Nellis AFB (which doesn't have that many people anyways). What we seemed to miss was the city of Mesquite. That adds another 25,000 odd residents. And it's on the Utah border. Also those precincts in the south do have a lot of people, and those are relatively wealthy areas and they vote Republican. About 40,000 odd people there. The North Las Vegas portion is about 50% Hispanic, wheareas the district overall within Clark County is only 27% Hispanic. In a special election I really wonder how many people showed up. The rich areas to the south I am sure showed up, and Mesquite seems like it would be teabagger central. Unless we have precinct results, we can't tell whether there was a catastrophic swing in North Las Vegas or not. And considering how few people actually voted in Clark, and the fact that no one advertised there, it would be safer to look at the populated areas of northern Nevada. Carson City results are very interesting to me.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 14, 2011, 09:37:34 AM

By the way do you have any data to show that the very elderly Jewish population in Florida is not very Orthodox and the younger Jewish population in NYC is?

Also keep in mind that Orthodox Jewish stronghold is in Brooklyn, not in Queens. Care to explain what happened with those non Orthodox Jews in east Queens?

The vote patterns pretty much show that the population there is a lot different than the one in NY-9, it's not something I just made up. These are two separate places, they are not equal. But, you can believe whatever you like.

Not everyone in the district that is conservative is Orthodox Jewish, there are other conservative Democrats all throughout it. There are also Republican pockets in Queens.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 14, 2011, 09:40:09 AM

Clearly you were just talking out of your a$$ here because the Dems are getting crushed in the generic congressional ballot for a very long time.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/boehner-as-unpopular-as-pelosi.html (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/boehner-as-unpopular-as-pelosi.html)

I think most national pundits continue to be missing the boat on how possible it is that Democrats will retake control of the House next year. We find Democrats with a 7 point lead on the generic Congressional ballot this week at 47-40. After getting demolished with independent voters last year, they now hold a slight 39-36 advantage with them. And in another contrast to 2010 Democratic voters are actually slightly more unified than Republicans, with 83% committed to supporting the party's Congressional candidates compared to 80% in line with theirs.


Now, take our MENSA resident with you and go take YOUR heads out of each other's ass.
Morons.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 14, 2011, 09:44:48 AM
By the way looking at the Nevada map, CD 2 definitely does include a decent portion of North Las Vegas and its pretty safe to say that most of the 6,000 votes came from part of Clark county since the southern part is very rural. I mean there is like one road throughout that part and a couple very tiny towns.

That was North Las Vegas they just got creamed in.

Ok, mapped things out on DRA. The district contains about 86,000 residents in Clark County. Of them only 27,000 live in North Las Vegas, excluding Nellis AFB (which doesn't have that many people anyways). What we seemed to miss was the city of Mesquite. That adds another 25,000 odd residents. And it's on the Utah border. Also those precincts in the south do have a lot of people, and those are relatively wealthy areas and they vote Republican. About 40,000 odd people there. The North Las Vegas portion is about 50% Hispanic, wheareas the district overall within Clark County is only 27% Hispanic. In a special election I really wonder how many people showed up. The rich areas to the south I am sure showed up, and Mesquite seems like it would be teabagger central. Unless we have precinct results, we can't tell whether there was a catastrophic swing in North Las Vegas or not. And considering how few people actually voted in Clark, and the fact that no one advertised there, it would be safer to look at the populated areas of northern Nevada. Carson City results are very interesting to me.

Next to nobody voted (http://www.silverstateelection.com/VoterStatsSpecial.aspx) in North Las Vegas.  That is the reasonable inference from the really low turnout in Clark. It was only 18%. In Washoe it was 32%  


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 14, 2011, 09:46:47 AM
I'm glad px is trusting PPP again! We know how the hacks on the other side were skeptical over the past few weeks when...well, let's be blunt...their findings weren't benefitting their side.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 14, 2011, 09:52:06 AM
I'm glad px is trusting PPP again! We know how the hacks on the other side were skeptical over the past few weeks when...well, let's be blunt...their findings weren't benefitting their side.

I don't know what you're talking about but if you're speaking about me show when I said that I don't trust them.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 14, 2011, 09:52:26 AM
By the way looking at the Nevada map, CD 2 definitely does include a decent portion of North Las Vegas and its pretty safe to say that most of the 6,000 votes came from part of Clark county since the southern part is very rural. I mean there is like one road throughout that part and a couple very tiny towns.

That was North Las Vegas they just got creamed in.

Ok, mapped things out on DRA. The district contains about 86,000 residents in Clark County. Of them only 27,000 live in North Las Vegas, excluding Nellis AFB (which doesn't have that many people anyways). What we seemed to miss was the city of Mesquite. That adds another 25,000 odd residents. And it's on the Utah border. Also those precincts in the south do have a lot of people, and those are relatively wealthy areas and they vote Republican. About 40,000 odd people there. The North Las Vegas portion is about 50% Hispanic, wheareas the district overall within Clark County is only 27% Hispanic. In a special election I really wonder how many people showed up. The rich areas to the south I am sure showed up, and Mesquite seems like it would be teabagger central. Unless we have precinct results, we can't tell whether there was a catastrophic swing in North Las Vegas or not. And considering how few people actually voted in Clark, and the fact that no one advertised there, it would be safer to look at the populated areas of northern Nevada. Carson City results are very interesting to me.

Next to nobody voted (http://www.silverstateelection.com/VoterStatsSpecial.aspx) in North Las Vegas.  That is the reasonable inference from the really low turnout in Clark. It was only 18%. In Washoe it was 32%  

In Carson City it was actually 50%.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 14, 2011, 09:52:49 AM

Clearly you were just talking out of your a$$ here because the Dems are getting crushed in the generic congressional ballot for a very long time.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/boehner-as-unpopular-as-pelosi.html (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/boehner-as-unpopular-as-pelosi.html)

I think most national pundits continue to be missing the boat on how possible it is that Democrats will retake control of the House next year. We find Democrats with a 7 point lead on the generic Congressional ballot this week at 47-40. After getting demolished with independent voters last year, they now hold a slight 39-36 advantage with them. And in another contrast to 2010 Democratic voters are actually slightly more unified than Republicans, with 83% committed to supporting the party's Congressional candidates compared to 80% in line with theirs.


Now, take our MENSA resident with you and go take YOUR heads out of each other's ass.
Morons.

So your response is to post an admitted Democrat polling outfit and then say some bull crap about how Dems could take the house. Do you even have a clue how much extremely harder that is for 2012 than at any point in the last 2 decades? Some of the most important news coming out of Redistricting is PVI's of the median districts. Do you realize that you would have trudge through quite a few of R +5 districts before you could take it back?

Listen to your own best analyst. According to Charlie Cook "extremely unlikely" that Dems could take the house in 12. And they are "very challenged" in ever taking the house this decade.

The house is gone for you, finished, and your not getting it back anytime soon.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 09:55:08 AM

Clearly you were just talking out of your a$$ here because the Dems are getting crushed in the generic congressional ballot for a very long time.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/boehner-as-unpopular-as-pelosi.html (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/boehner-as-unpopular-as-pelosi.html)

I think most national pundits continue to be missing the boat on how possible it is that Democrats will retake control of the House next year. We find Democrats with a 7 point lead on the generic Congressional ballot this week at 47-40. After getting demolished with independent voters last year, they now hold a slight 39-36 advantage with them. And in another contrast to 2010 Democratic voters are actually slightly more unified than Republicans, with 83% committed to supporting the party's Congressional candidates compared to 80% in line with theirs.


Now, take our MENSA resident with you and go take YOUR heads out of each other's ass.
Morons.

Well, first of all, the question was:

Would you rather that more Democrats or more Republicans were elected to Congress in the next election? Would you rather that more Democrats or more Republicans were elected to Congress in the next election?

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/8/4

That is not a "Who would you vote for," question.  It has some value, but it isn't straight forward.

Second, the result is more than a month old, so you are not really saying anything new, even on PPP.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 14, 2011, 09:55:44 AM

Clearly you were just talking out of your a$$ here because the Dems are getting crushed in the generic congressional ballot for a very long time.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/boehner-as-unpopular-as-pelosi.html (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/boehner-as-unpopular-as-pelosi.html)

I think most national pundits continue to be missing the boat on how possible it is that Democrats will retake control of the House next year. We find Democrats with a 7 point lead on the generic Congressional ballot this week at 47-40. After getting demolished with independent voters last year, they now hold a slight 39-36 advantage with them. And in another contrast to 2010 Democratic voters are actually slightly more unified than Republicans, with 83% committed to supporting the party's Congressional candidates compared to 80% in line with theirs.


Now, take our MENSA resident with you and go take YOUR heads out of each other's ass.
Morons.

So your response is to post an admitted Democrat polling outfit and then say some bull crap about how Dems could take the house. Do you even have a clue how much extremely harder that is for 2012 than at any point in the last 2 decades? Some of the most important news coming out of Redistricting is PVI's of the median districts. Do you realize that you would have trudge through quite a few of R +5 districts before you could take it back?

Listen to your own best analyst. According to Charlie Cook "extremely unlikely" that Dems could take the house in 12. And they are "very challenged" in ever taking the house this decade.

The house is gone for you, finished, and your not getting it back anytime soon.

You need to change your talking points. After two cycles and a bunch of special elections where they were the most accurate outfit of all, the "admitted Democratic polling outfit" one doesn't work anymore.

Hack.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 14, 2011, 10:02:59 AM
The PPP bashing is beyond old, it's really not even worth responded to and should be ignored.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2011, 10:06:05 AM
The PPP bashing is beyond old, it's really not even worth responded to and should be ignored.

PPP already regrets having asked about this Socialist Workers Party dude.

I could have told them before that he won't get 4% ... :P

Quote
I'm rethinking including super marginal 3rd party candidates in our polls. They always do better in phone polls than at THE polls.

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/113820696588730368


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 10:41:57 AM


The 2 million dollar questions here are:
A) Are decently well off suburban voters going to start going back to the GOP like 2010 and end their trends towards Dems up until then?
and


Yeah, for all the talk about Israel and gay marriage this is the more interesting question. Are the socially liberal/moderate, upper middle class voters ditching the Democrats? Remember Craig Huey did really well in Torrance and the Beach Cities.

And Mark Critz did really well with working class whites a few months before the 2010 midterms.

Frankly I don't know what to say anymore. Despite Obama's unpopularity Democrats are clearly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the general congressional ballot, so all those doom-and-gloom predictions seem to me greatly exaggerated.
It's a very volatile period and whoever makes predictions risks to look like a fool a couple of months down the road.
I know you couldn't mean something like when I predicted that this would be won based on marriage.

though you could mean this prediction (I guess the moral is don't give advise that only works for you)
I actually think Turner might this one.

If he does it will be because Weprin's position in favor of marriage redefinition.

That's the third time you post this nonsense. I think we got the message, so please take your idiocy and get the hell out of here.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 10:44:01 AM
J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

The same thing can apply to their supporters.
 

this is many times a true statement which is why Turner did better then the polls had him (Orthodox Jews are always underestimated in the polls Russians usually are too)


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 14, 2011, 10:46:36 AM
Interesting tidbit about NY-9:

53.8% born in state
4.0% born in a different state
2.1% born abroad to American parents
40.1% foreign born

The bolded must be among the lowest in the country.

It might be the lowest in the country.  The only districts I've found that are even close are elsewhere in New York.

Quote
I agree that Dems should have no problem winning the special election. Foreign policy and anti-Obama sentiment was the only reason it was even that close.

The anti-Obama sentiment is still there, for NY-09 purposes, especially given his recent anti-Israel turn in foreign policy.

But that's not the issue.  Special elections are usually won on machine strength.  The Democrats have it in NY-09.  Republicans don't.  So I doubt the special election will be close, as long as it isn't held on election day in November.  Even if it is, my guess is the Republican candidate will do better than they have against Weiner in the recent past, but still lose by low double digits.


I would have been in  near 100% agreement with this call.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 14, 2011, 10:47:30 AM
Worst danger for Dems is if Crowley goes with a weak Dem nominee to bolster himself in redistricting


Prescient.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 14, 2011, 10:49:16 AM
I think the frontrunner for this is Assemblyman Rory Lancman and former Councilwoman Melinda Katz as the runner up.

Yes, those two would be in my top three, I'd toss in David Weprin too

Another prescient call. Very good.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 10:50:40 AM
Couple of points:

1. The district is not entirely Jewish (it isn't even majority Jewish; working off the ACS data I posted way up thread, only 68.6% of the district is white and Italian and Irish ancestries came out at 20.7%. Of course there can be double counting in the latter, but my point isn't hard to grasp, I hope), not all Jews in the district are Orthodox, and not all Orthodox Jews in the district are the sort that wear those nifty black hats and vote with such remarkable discipline when an election is deemed to matter. So you can't just point to specifically Jewish (and by that you actually mean specifically Orthodox and/or Soviet and so on; basically an Other, I suppose) and pin this defeat on that. Obviously when a key swing block says 'fyck you', there's trouble ahead. But it is not enough on its own, not when its perfectly possible for a Democrat to win this district while losing such voters by miles.

2. It's not an affluent suburban district either, even if does have a few affluent residential areas here and there. This is a basically working class district with some richer parts and a massive immigrant population (only a minority of its inhabitants speak English as a first language ffs). It's certainly not poverty stricken and is less working class (significantly so) than most of the districts it borders, but then it's in Brooklyn and Queens.
if not for gay marriage this would have been a much closer race and Weprin would have won by a few thousand votes (the overall climate is important in any election but the Orthodox vote would have been his biggest base if not for marriage instead of Turner's)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 14, 2011, 10:51:57 AM
Bob Turner's going to be the GOP nominee, I guarantee it.

Okay, this race might not be competitive after all.


Not so good.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 14, 2011, 10:54:02 AM
what do you guys think of this race? Honestly curious from an outside perspective -- there's been recent arguments behind and not-so-behind the scenes that the progressive community is failing to actually show even a remote interest here, even though the district is less Democratic than Hochul's district is Republican

As a former constituent of NY09, I think there were better/stronger voices and choices in the community including those who weren't currently elected to public office. Weprin has also said he won't run for re-election for Congress if elected. Bob Turner won't win. But for the seat was once Schumer's, Geraldine Ferraro's, and Anthony Weiner's--there could've been a better pick, for sure.


Opps, voters decided otherwise.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 10:54:51 AM

By the way do you have any data to show that the very elderly Jewish population in Florida is not very Orthodox and the younger Jewish population in NYC is?

Also keep in mind that Orthodox Jewish stronghold is in Brooklyn, not in Queens. Care to explain what happened with those non Orthodox Jews in east Queens?

The vote patterns pretty much show that the population there is a lot different than the one in NY-9, it's not something I just made up. These are two separate places, they are not equal. But, you can believe whatever you like.

Not everyone in the district that is conservative is Orthodox Jewish, there are other conservative Democrats all throughout it. There are also Republican pockets in Queens.
many of those pockets are Orthodox, the are also many Italian, and Irish pockets in this district (just for the record marriage redefinition is very unpopular amongst Irish and Italians just not even close to as much as it is with Orthodox Jews).  Personally I think Weprin might have lost his own ED if the district would have included his house (assuming I'm not making a mistake in the ED he lives in)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 14, 2011, 10:56:27 AM

Certainly that does not matter. Johnnylongtorso said otherwise, and he must be right.

Eric Ulrich has taken himself out of consideration for the Republican nomination. Sorry, krazen, your dreams of picking up this seat are slipping through your fingers.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 14, 2011, 10:57:30 AM
Special elections are always strange.  Turner should never win here, but this district has so many weird voters, and with lower turnout, ugh.  I still don't see how he wins, but who knows.  You have to expect that the place will, without an incumbent, at minimum, start reverting to its PVI, so single digits makes sense.

First rate call.

Quote

Is anyone really spending any money here other than the local players?  Though I don't see how national money helps in this district, of all places - better to just plaster Ed Koch supporting you all over the place given the demos of the likely voters.

It's getting to be in NY congressional races - when the machine hand-picks someone, maybe you should always bet against them.  :P


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 14, 2011, 11:00:04 AM
Turner will win this race because of Weprin's same gender "marriage" vote/speech

Ballsy early call made good.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 14, 2011, 11:01:28 AM
Turner's own internal has him stuck at 42%, which is right around where he is in most polls. I don't see how he wins this.

Another bad call.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: cinyc on September 14, 2011, 11:12:29 AM
Next to nobody voted (http://www.silverstateelection.com/VoterStatsSpecial.aspx) in North Las Vegas.  That is the reasonable inference from the really low turnout in Clark. It was only 18%. In Washoe it was 32%  

Lower relative turnout in Clark County makes a lot of sense.  The candidates didn't advertise in the Las Vegas TV market.  There was lower turnout in the Las Vegas TV Market's cow counties, Lincoln and Nye for the same reason.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 14, 2011, 11:23:35 AM

Certainly that does not matter. Johnnylongtorso said otherwise, and he must be right.

Eric Ulrich has taken himself out of consideration for the Republican nomination. Sorry, krazen, your dreams of picking up this seat are slipping through your fingers.

You might find this link interests.


New 2010 poverty figure placed at 15.1%.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-poverty-census-20110914,0,7327582,full.story

2011 probably will be even worse.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 14, 2011, 11:35:45 AM
Anybody have the racial make up of the district, especially the Queens section?

Posted repeated in this thread.

White: 68.6%
Black: 4.7%
Hispanic: 15.8%
Asian: 17.5% (of which 50.7% are Chinese and 24.7% Indian)
---
Italian: 12.6%
Irish: 8.1%
Russian: 7.8%
German: 5.1%
Polish: 4.8%
---
Anglophone: 48.2%
---
Born Abroad: 40.2% (of which 64.6% are citizens)

ACS data.

Don't have any exact breakdowns for the specific parts of the district, but (and this is according to the 2000 census because I'm being semi-lazy) the Queens section seems to include both the whitest and least-white parts of the district. Blacks live mostly in the northern extreme of the Brooklyn section (bordering NY-10) and the east/central part of the Queens section. Asians seem to mostly live in Sheepshead Bay* in the Brooklyn section and the eastern half of the Brooklyn section. Main concentration of Hispanics seems to be in the southern bit of the Queens section.

*I think, though may be wrong. That kind of area anyway.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 14, 2011, 11:44:05 AM
()

What a thread.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 12:05:21 PM
anyone who truly wants to know what happened here read the front page article (and the continuation)
http://www.hamodia.com/digitaledition.cfm?docid=43796e430bdd43d285e7496f55c4cf98


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 14, 2011, 12:06:16 PM
I think that says more about you than this thread.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 12:07:06 PM
Turner will win this race because of Weprin's same gender "marriage" vote/speech

Ballsy early call made good.
I made this call earlier
my first prediction on this forum Weprin will lose this race mostly because of his redefinition of marriage support.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 12:09:48 PM
Anybody have the racial make up of the district, especially the Queens section?

Posted repeated in this thread.

White: 68.6%
Black: 4.7%
Hispanic: 15.8%
Asian: 17.5% (of which 50.7% are Chinese and 24.7% Indian)
---
Italian: 12.6%
Irish: 8.1%
Russian: 7.8%
German: 5.1%
Polish: 4.8%
---
Anglophone: 48.2%
---
Born Abroad: 40.2% (of which 64.6% are citizens)

ACS data.

Don't have any exact breakdowns for the specific parts of the district, but (and this is according to the 2000 census because I'm being semi-lazy) the Queens section seems to include both the whitest and least-white parts of the district. Blacks live mostly in the northern extreme of the Brooklyn section (bordering NY-10) and the east/central part of the Queens section. Asians seem to mostly live in Sheepshead Bay* in the Brooklyn section and the eastern half of the Brooklyn section. Main concentration of Hispanics seems to be in the southern bit of the Queens section.

*I think, though may be wrong. That kind of area anyway.

I was hoping for something specific to Queens.  I thought the black population was higher.  Thank you!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 14, 2011, 12:17:30 PM
NY Jew, according to the newspaper you just cited Marriage likely wasn't a huge decider in this race. Only 29% said that it was very important and that would appear to be the same % of traditionally Republican voting Orthodox Jews and devout Catholics that are in this district.

Also, isn't "Jewry" a term that shouldn't be used? I saw that at the top and the only couple of times I've seen that were word it was used in kind of a derogatory way.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 12:19:12 PM

Certainly that does not matter. Johnnylongtorso said otherwise, and he must be right.

Eric Ulrich has taken himself out of consideration for the Republican nomination. Sorry, krazen, your dreams of picking up this seat are slipping through your fingers.

Ulrich would have never gotten such a high Orthodox support (he voted for a gay marriage (to us at least David greenfeld was the only won to vote against it) like bill in the city Council)

whether he would have done good enough in key areas to win is impossible to gage would he have done better then Turner in Catholic neighborhoods? would he have gotten enough Orthodox support to win? would Ruben Diaz still support him? would NOM have gotten involved in this race if he was the candidate? (NOM got involved because many Orthodox Jews asked them to come in to help), could he have successfully made Isreal an issue?

Until I saw Turner got the nod I was afraid the Republicans would follow their normal routine of putting up a candidate that couldn't win (some of those candidates that were suggested couldn't win an election for town idiot) (ignoring all but their base (and this means registration and leadership wise))


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 14, 2011, 12:31:57 PM

Yeah, it looks like a Johns Hopkins Psychiatric Unit reunion.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 12:32:51 PM
NY Jew, according to the newspaper you just cited Marriage likely wasn't a huge decider in this race. Only 29% said that it was very important and that would appear to be the same % of traditionally Republican voting Orthodox Jews and devout Catholics that are in this district.

Orthodox Jews are only Republican based on a few issues (though the democrats keep expanding this number) and most Orthodox Jews never would have abandoned Weprin if not for this vote (watch when the special election ED by ED numbers come out for the 27 AD and compare Weprin and Simanowitz's numbers and you'll see that many voted for the democrat in 1 race and the Republican in the other)
here's the results for the whole district (many of the traditional republican areas aren't in the 9th CD)
Simanowitz (D) 6,448 76%-DeSena (R) 2,032 24% (this district includes McCains best areas in Queens proper (and I'm sure that you were seeing numbers here like 80% for Simanowitz and 80% for Turner) (not including the Rockways))


in regards to the Catholics many Hispanics here and therefore would be changed votes.

don't confuse very important with 1 issue voters.




Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 12:35:33 PM
Also, isn't "Jewry" a term that shouldn't be used? I saw that at the top and the only couple of times I've seen that were word it was used in kind of a derogatory way.
depends what follows or precedes it (in other words it's neutral)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 14, 2011, 01:21:15 PM
Can anybody shed any light on when the remaining 10% of precincts might report?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 14, 2011, 01:37:57 PM
Can anybody shed any light on when the remaining 10% of precincts might report?

Never? Somebody noted that there were a large number of empty precincts in the district.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: "'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted" on September 14, 2011, 02:11:15 PM
Props to Michael Tomasky (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/06/07/anthony-weiner-the-scandal-s-congressional-consequences.html).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 14, 2011, 02:22:39 PM

Also, isn't "Jewry" a term that shouldn't be used? I saw that at the top and the only couple of times I've seen that were word it was used in kind of a derogatory way.

http://tinyurl.com/3zuawa4


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Wonkish1 on September 14, 2011, 02:27:01 PM

Also, isn't "Jewry" a term that shouldn't be used? I saw that at the top and the only couple of times I've seen that were word it was used in kind of a derogatory way.

http://tinyurl.com/3zuawa4

Way to post one of those that doesn't lead to the question being answered. Google seems to think I should be searching for "jewelry"


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 02:46:27 PM
NY Jew, according to the newspaper you just cited Marriage likely wasn't a huge decider in this race. Only 29% said that it was very important and that would appear to be the same % of traditionally Republican voting Orthodox Jews and devout Catholics that are in this district.

Also, isn't "Jewry" a term that shouldn't be used? I saw that at the top and the only couple of times I've seen that were word it was used in kind of a derogatory way.

In the 1970's it was common to see banners on synagogues that said, "Save the Soviet Jewry."


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2011, 03:36:52 PM
A new motto for the NY-09 Democrats:

"Yesterday we stumbled across Anthony's weiner, now on to a brighter future and victory in 2012 !"


Title: DeFazio's "bizarre" take on NY 9 results.
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 14, 2011, 04:14:12 PM
“The New York election was bizarre, just totally bizarre,” said Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.). “It was about Israel, it was about gay marriage, it was about all sorts of local issues. It was not a referendum on anything outside of that district.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63512.html#ixzz1Xxo8ynLR (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63512.html#ixzz1Xxo8ynLR)


I wasn't aware that gay marriage and matters related to Israel only happened in NY 9, Congressman.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 04:27:35 PM
http://www.cityhallnews.com/2011/09/heard-around-town-sept-14-2011/



Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 14, 2011, 04:41:09 PM
I haven't really read this thread (because this (http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d159/meekermariner/ScreenShot2011-09-14at124241PM.png)) but has this disgusting picture been posted yet?

()

So glad that we have another congressman that is as loyal to an anti-democratic apartheid state as he is to the country he will swear to protect.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 14, 2011, 04:53:10 PM
That's hilarious! The presence of the flag, of course; not Lief's anti-Semitism.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 04:55:55 PM
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2093186,00.html

"In some places, government has moved ahead while the nation debates. New York in July became the sixth state, along with the District of Columbia, to legalize same-sex marriage. Still, the issue played a part in the special election Tuesday to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y. Democrat David Weprin's support for gay marriage cost him support among the district's Orthodox Jews, and he lost to Republican Bob Turner.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2093186,00.html#ixzz1XxypQGek
"


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Miles on September 14, 2011, 04:58:38 PM
So glad that we have another congressman that is as loyal to an anti-democratic apartheid state as he is to the country he will swear to protect.

Agreed.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on September 14, 2011, 05:02:23 PM
This one leaps past NY-13 to become the most densely populated district represented by a Republican.


Title: Re: DeFazio's "bizarre" take on NY 9 results.
Post by: The Vorlon on September 14, 2011, 05:10:53 PM
“The New York election was bizarre, just totally bizarre,” said Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.). “It was about Israel, it was about gay marriage, it was about all sorts of local issues. It was not a referendum on anything outside of that district.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63512.html#ixzz1Xxo8ynLR (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63512.html#ixzz1Xxo8ynLR)


I wasn't aware that gay marriage and matters related to Israel only happened in NY 9, Congressman.

I don't think Obama and his policies had anything at all to do with the GOP win in this seat.

I suggest Obama and the Democrats ignore any impulse to change direction and continue upon the path to peace and prosperity that they have so firmly placed the nation upon.

By staying true to their current policies, I am sure 2012 will be a resounding victory.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 05:11:48 PM
I think a lot of it was about Obama's stand on Israel and same sex marriage, but not all of it.  Queens was not an Orthodox stronghold.  Some of it is the economy.

There is another problem.  Jews have traditionally supported Democratic candidates and supported Obama in the last election.  All D presidential nominees since 1928 have gotten at least a plurality of the Jewish vote.  Except for Carter in 1980, all got more than 60%.  http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/jewvote.html

This election is an indication that Obama might be below the 60% range, possibly below the 50% mark.  That should trouble any Obama supporter, especially if you look at the states with a fairly large Jewish population.

And Lief, thank you for helping drive Jewish voters away from Obama.

I haven't really read this thread (because this (http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d159/meekermariner/ScreenShot2011-09-14at124241PM.png)) but has this disgusting picture been posted yet?

()

So glad that we have another congressman that is as loyal to an anti-democratic apartheid state as he is to the country he will swear to protect.



Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 14, 2011, 05:23:19 PM
Hasn't it already been established that this district is more socially conservative on average? The PVI even fell eight points in 2008, that's a sign of something going on before now.

Jewish voters aren't monolithic, in other states they tend to be more liberal and focus on other issues, so I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that Obama is losing Jewish voters because of one low turnout House race.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 14, 2011, 05:28:41 PM
Hasn't it already been established that this district is more socially conservative on average? The PVI even fell eight points in 2008, that's a sign of something going on before now.

Jewish voters aren't monolithic, in other states they tend to be more liberal and focus on other issues, so I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that Obama is losing Jewish voters because of one low turnout House race.

No, I would conclude that Obama is losing Jewish voters because self-described "Jews" in various polls indicate that that is the case.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 05:33:39 PM
Hasn't it already been established that this district is more socially conservative on average? The PVI even fell eight points in 2008, that's a sign of something going on before now.

Jewish voters aren't monolithic, in other states they tend to be more liberal and focus on other issues, so I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that Obama is losing Jewish voters because of one low turnout House race.

If you clicked the link, you'd find out that no D presidential nominee, except Carter, had less than 60% of the Jewish vote.  Now that isn't "monolithic" but it is, or was, a strong component of the D coalition.  Losing this district, and performing so badly in a Jwwish area without a large Orthodox population, is a very bad sign for Obama in 2012, even if, as the D's are saying, this is about "Jewish issues."

BTW:  The black vote was not as strongly D during the same period.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: DrScholl on September 14, 2011, 05:44:08 PM

If you clicked the link, you'd find out that no D presidential nominee, except Carter, had less than 60% of the Jewish vote.  Now that isn't "monolithic" but it is, or was, a strong component of the D coalition.  Losing this district, and performing so badly in a Jwwish area without a large Orthodox population, is a very bad sign for Obama in 2012, even if, as the D's are saying, this is about "Jewish issues."

BTW:  The black vote was not as strongly D during the same period.

My point is about using special elections to predict future general elections, it just doesn't work, because special elections can be very unpredictable. This isn't a partisan thing, I wouldn't use a Republican losing a special election to predict anything either.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Gustaf on September 14, 2011, 05:45:52 PM
I haven't really read this thread (because this (http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d159/meekermariner/ScreenShot2011-09-14at124241PM.png)) but has this disgusting picture been posted yet?

()

So glad that we have another congressman that is as loyal to an anti-democratic apartheid state as he is to the country he will swear to protect.

Yeah, better watch out for those Jews. You never know where their true loyalties lie.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 14, 2011, 05:49:25 PM
Once again, why does everyone think this district is Tel Aviv West? Of course it has a massive (and diverse) Jewish population, but then it's majority white and in New York City...

Look, if this result can be seen as any kind of warning, it isn't really because of the district's Jewishness (not directly, anyway). Your hat wearers (can people who are not Orthodox Jews buy those, by the way?) and so on will not be voting for him anyway, and I somehow doubt that all non-Jewish groups in the district voted for Weprin...


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 05:51:41 PM

If you clicked the link, you'd find out that no D presidential nominee, except Carter, had less than 60% of the Jewish vote.  Now that isn't "monolithic" but it is, or was, a strong component of the D coalition.  Losing this district, and performing so badly in a Jwwish area without a large Orthodox population, is a very bad sign for Obama in 2012, even if, as the D's are saying, this is about "Jewish issues."

BTW:  The black vote was not as strongly D during the same period.

My point is about using special elections to predict future general elections, it just doesn't work, because special elections can be very unpredictable. This isn't a partisan thing, I wouldn't use a Republican losing a special election to predict anything either.

Well Defrazio, a D, that was saying it was "local issues." I agree that this was much, but not all of it.

If a conservative Mormon R would lose a special election in Montana for a seat that was R+5, I would call it troubling.  Unlike some of liberals here, I would not be in denial about it.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on September 14, 2011, 05:56:40 PM

Damn, you beat me to it.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 14, 2011, 05:57:41 PM
I haven't really read this thread (because this (http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d159/meekermariner/ScreenShot2011-09-14at124241PM.png)) but has this disgusting picture been posted yet?

()

So glad that we have another congressman that is as loyal to an anti-democratic apartheid state as he is to the country he will swear to protect.

Yeah, better watch out for those Jews. You never know where their true loyalties lie.

I guess if Mike Michaud gave a victory speech having a French flag next to him or Raul Grijalva with a Mexican one, Republicans would be totally OK with that.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 14, 2011, 05:58:47 PM
Bob Turner is not Jewish.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 14, 2011, 06:06:58 PM

That makes his pandering even more disgusting.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: nclib on September 14, 2011, 06:15:59 PM
This is certainly disappointing, but I wouldn't read too much into it. NY-9 is a unique district.

What were the final results by borough?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 06:41:16 PM
I think a lot of it was about Obama's stand on Israel and same sex marriage, but not all of it.  Queens was not an Orthodox stronghold.  Some of it is the economy.

There is another problem.  Jews have traditionally supported Democratic candidates and supported Obama in the last election.  All D presidential nominees since 1928 have gotten at least a plurality of the Jewish vote.  Except for Carter in 1980, all got more than 60%.  http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/jewvote.html

This election is an indication that Obama might be below the 60% range, possibly below the 50% mark.  That should trouble any Obama supporter, especially if you look at the states with a fairly large Jewish population.

And Lief, thank you for helping drive Jewish voters away from Obama.

I haven't really read this thread (because this (http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d159/meekermariner/ScreenShot2011-09-14at124241PM.png)) but has this disgusting picture been posted yet?

()

So glad that we have another congressman that is as loyal to an anti-democratic apartheid state as he is to the country he will swear to protect.



Central Queens (Kew Garden Hill, Kew Gardens, Forrest Hills) has thousands of Orthodox votes.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 06:45:57 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9T7UfohbEc


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 14, 2011, 07:13:16 PM

Why is that? He's reaching out to his potential (now actual) constituents. Is that wrong? And maybe he really agrees with their point of view. This particular WASP is also very pro Israel, and I make no apologies for it - none. But yes, I also favor gay marriage. :P

And I admire the Orthodox Jews for voting for a goy over one of their own tribe, if that is what he is. It shows they are not parochial in that particular way. Good for them!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on September 14, 2011, 07:13:35 PM
By the way looking at the Nevada map, CD 2 definitely does include a decent portion of North Las Vegas and its pretty safe to say that most of the 6,000 votes came from part of Clark county since the southern part is very rural. I mean there is like one road throughout that part and a couple very tiny towns.

That was North Las Vegas they just got creamed in.

Ok, mapped things out on DRA. The district contains about 86,000 residents in Clark County. Of them only 27,000 live in North Las Vegas, excluding Nellis AFB (which doesn't have that many people anyways). What we seemed to miss was the city of Mesquite. That adds another 25,000 odd residents. And it's on the Utah border. Also those precincts in the south do have a lot of people, and those are relatively wealthy areas and they vote Republican. About 40,000 odd people there. The North Las Vegas portion is about 50% Hispanic, wheareas the district overall within Clark County is only 27% Hispanic. In a special election I really wonder how many people showed up. The rich areas to the south I am sure showed up, and Mesquite seems like it would be teabagger central. Unless we have precinct results, we can't tell whether there was a catastrophic swing in North Las Vegas or not. And considering how few people actually voted in Clark, and the fact that no one advertised there, it would be safer to look at the populated areas of northern Nevada. Carson City results are very interesting to me.

Next to nobody voted (http://www.silverstateelection.com/VoterStatsSpecial.aspx) in North Las Vegas.  That is the reasonable inference from the really low turnout in Clark. It was only 18%. In Washoe it was 32%  

In Carson City it was actually 50%.

Which is why, regardless of the exact partisanship of this part of Clark, the idea that this part of the district should get a mention as "the place to keep your eye on", without even a mention of Washoe or Carson City, is incredibly misleading on the part of Politico.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 07:53:50 PM
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/poll-same-sex-marriage-played-role-ny-city-congressional-upset


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: nclib on September 14, 2011, 08:12:47 PM
from link:

Quote
Weprin won among non-Orthodox Jews 69% - 29%

Not surprising, and should show that the Dems aren't in trouble with Jews in general.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 14, 2011, 08:32:10 PM
Surveys like that tend not to be worth the paper they're printed on, though that particular pattern is obviously true. To repeat, the cause for concern isn't anything specific to Jewish voters in the district.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: rbt48 on September 14, 2011, 09:23:34 PM
Has anyone seen the results for the last 40 precincts?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

I can't believe it takes over 24 hours to check all the voting machines in New York City!  It must be that the AP page just gives up and ceases to update.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on September 14, 2011, 09:36:51 PM
Wow I never knew Lief had that much political influence! There is no question that thousands of Jews will note vote for Obama because of the postings of a Democratic college student on an internet message board. Amazing how much influence the guy has now.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 14, 2011, 10:06:10 PM
Surveys like that tend not to be worth the paper they're printed on, though that particular pattern is obviously true. To repeat, the cause for concern isn't anything specific to Jewish voters in the district.

Yup. Obama really needs to worry about lower middle class and working class white Catholics more. He's being killed there at the moment. And there are a lot more of them of course across the fruited plain. In the handful of precincts in this CD in that category, Welprin was probably slaughtered. It will be interesting to see the precinct by precinct results, since due to my mapping I think I now know the CD quite well.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 14, 2011, 10:15:57 PM
I wouldn't read too much into any poll, but a wise sage would probably look at this election and say that movement among lower-income Catholics was probably how Turner won it.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 14, 2011, 10:16:32 PM
Surveys like that tend not to be worth the paper they're printed on, though that particular pattern is obviously true. To repeat, the cause for concern isn't anything specific to Jewish voters in the district.

Yup. Obama really needs to worry about lower middle class and working class white Catholics more. He's being killed there at the moment. And there are a lot more of them of course across the fruited plain. In the handful of precincts in this CD in that category, Welprin was probably slaughtered. It will be interesting to see the precinct by precinct results, since due to my mapping I think I now know the CD quite well.

Great minds think alike?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 14, 2011, 10:16:59 PM
Wow I never knew Lief had that much political influence! There is no question that thousands of Jews will note vote for Obama because of the postings of a Democratic college student on an internet message board. Amazing how much influence the guy has now.

I'm pretty flattered that J.J. thinks so highly of my political influence.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on September 14, 2011, 10:40:57 PM
Story of the day relayed to me by someone else:

Person in cab with Russian cab driver, between 25-30, from Moscow.  Lived in US most of his life.  Conversation turns to NY-9 congressional race and cab driver says, "I'm so happy about the victory.  I worked for his campaign."

Person asks, "was it about Israel and Obama?"  Cab driver goes, "No, I think Obama definitely supports Israel and their interests.  I couldn't support Weprin because was with the f****ts."


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Boris on September 14, 2011, 10:45:36 PM
Story of the day relayed to me by someone else:

Person in cab with Russian cab driver, between 25-30, from Moscow.  Lived in US most of his life.  Conversation turns to NY-9 congressional race and cab driver says, "I'm so happy about the victory.  I worked for his campaign."

Person asks, "was it about Israel and Obama?"  Cab driver goes, "No, I think Obamal fu supports Israel and their interests.  I couldn't support Weprin because was with the f****ts."

lol

But seriously, Israeli MKs really ought to reciprocate and give their victory speeches (if they have those? they don't have FPTP, do they?) against the backdrop of American flags.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Beet on September 14, 2011, 10:57:18 PM
isn't it obvious? everyone that picked up was for Turner
Not everyone. But about half. Half of registered Democrats.

Did these people give you specifics reasons for their defections?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 14, 2011, 11:01:39 PM
isn't it obvious? everyone that picked up was for Turner
Not everyone. But about half. Half of registered Democrats.

Did these people give you specifics reasons for their defections?

I didn't ask.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 14, 2011, 11:13:33 PM
http://biggovernment.com/jdunetz/2011/09/14/what-the-ny-9-contest-teaches-us-and-doesnt-about-the-jewish-vote/


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 14, 2011, 11:17:44 PM
Story of the day relayed to me by someone else:

Person in cab with Russian cab driver, between 25-30, from Moscow.  Lived in US most of his life.  Conversation turns to NY-9 congressional race and cab driver says, "I'm so happy about the victory.  I worked for his campaign."

Person asks, "was it about Israel and Obama?"  Cab driver goes, "No, I think Obama definitely supports Israel and their interests.  I couldn't support Weprin because was with the f****ts."

I had no idea you were from Moscow!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 15, 2011, 12:19:11 AM

Why is that? He's reaching out to his potential (now actual) constituents. Is that wrong

Excuse me, I thought his constituents were Americans.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 15, 2011, 12:28:34 AM
Wow I never knew Lief had that much political influence! There is no question that thousands of Jews will note vote for Obama because of the postings of a Democratic college student on an internet message board. Amazing how much influence the guy has now.

Every bit helps.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: patrick1 on September 15, 2011, 12:35:20 AM

Why is that? He's reaching out to his potential (now actual) constituents. Is that wrong

Excuse me, I thought his constituents were Americans.

Oh my stars, getting a case of the vapors?  Had their been a Greek flag in Astoria, an Irish in Rockaway Beach or an Italian one in Howard Beach no one would say anything.  

Many constituent hold dual citizenship of a bunch of different nations.  It is just that Star of David that makes some people see red.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 15, 2011, 12:47:22 AM

Why is that? He's reaching out to his potential (now actual) constituents. Is that wrong

Excuse me, I thought his constituents were Americans.

Oh my stars, getting a case of the vapors?  Had their been a Greek flag in Astoria, an Irish in Rockaway Beach or an Italian one in Howard Beach no one would say anything.  

Many constituent hold dual citizenship of a bunch of different nations.  It is just that Star of David that makes some people see red.

I addressed your point a page or two before.


I guess if Mike Michaud gave a victory speech having a French flag next to him or Raul Grijalva with a Mexican one, Republicans would be totally OK with that.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: patrick1 on September 15, 2011, 12:56:46 AM

Why is that? He's reaching out to his potential (now actual) constituents. Is that wrong

Excuse me, I thought his constituents were Americans.

Oh my stars, getting a case of the vapors?  Had their been a Greek flag in Astoria, an Irish in Rockaway Beach or an Italian one in Howard Beach no one would say anything.  

Many constituent hold dual citizenship of a bunch of different nations.  It is just that Star of David that makes some people see red.

I addressed your point a page or two before.


I guess if Mike Michaud gave a victory speech having a French flag next to him or Raul Grijalva with a Mexican one, Republicans would be totally OK with that.

Um, yeah. The people who don't like France or Mexicans would piss and moan. I doubt they would get upset at Cuban emigre Republicans waving the old flag around.  Partisan politics tends  to turn people into hypocritical jackoffs.

OMG, Enemy agent!

()


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 15, 2011, 02:43:50 AM

Why is that? He's reaching out to his potential (now actual) constituents. Is that wrong

Excuse me, I thought his constituents were Americans.

Oh my stars, getting a case of the vapors?  Had their been a Greek flag in Astoria, an Irish in Rockaway Beach or an Italian one in Howard Beach no one would say anything.  

Many constituent hold dual citizenship of a bunch of different nations.  It is just that Star of David that makes some people see red.

I addressed your point a page or two before.


I guess if Mike Michaud gave a victory speech having a French flag next to him or Raul Grijalva with a Mexican one, Republicans would be totally OK with that.

Um, yeah. The people who don't like France or Mexicans would piss and moan. I doubt they would get upset at Cuban emigre Republicans waving the old flag around.  Partisan politics tends  to turn people into hypocritical jackoffs.

OMG, Enemy agent!

()
I agree with that and so do many Jews who voted for Turner.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 15, 2011, 02:45:25 AM
http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2011/09/14/behind-bob-turners-win-jewish-voters-opposed-to-gay-marriage/


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 15, 2011, 03:14:16 AM
()


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 15, 2011, 05:06:06 AM
http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2011/09/14/behind-bob-turners-win-jewish-voters-opposed-to-gay-marriage/

Sir, you have proven yourself to be correct already numerous times. The peanut gallery has some odd mishap against accepting your assertions when theirs have shown to be incorrect. I wonder what about this reality bothers them so much.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 15, 2011, 05:18:19 AM
Um, yeah. The people who don't like France or Mexicans would piss and moan.

Wouldn't that be 90% of Republicans?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 15, 2011, 07:56:05 AM
Um, yeah. The people who don't like France or Mexicans would piss and moan.

Wouldn't that be 90% of Republicans?

I doubt if they would, if it was a Vatican City flag.  Both flags, Vatican City and the flag of Israel, represent religious groups as well as countries.  It is common to see the Mogen David flag in synagogues, as you might see the "Christian Flag" in Protestant churches. 


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 15, 2011, 08:28:57 AM
Thanks for posting the map. Looks as expected (basically), but will look over the details after I've done some more work...


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 15, 2011, 09:07:49 AM
The AP has the margin now at 6, btw. 53-47 overall with Weprin winning the Queens portion 52-47 and Turner the Brooklyn portion 67-33.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 15, 2011, 09:35:16 AM

since I'm very stupid as I was told here so many times I have a stupid question

If liberals who are much smarter then conservatives because there so open-minded why wouldn't they want to see what people who disagree with them have to say


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 15, 2011, 09:35:59 AM

notice the areas of Forrest Hills that Turner won are Heavily Orthodox (German, Modern and most importantly Bucharian)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 15, 2011, 09:45:25 AM

since I'm very stupid as I was told here so many times I have a stupid question

If liberals who are much smarter then conservatives because there so open-minded why wouldn't they want to see what people who disagree with them have to say

I don't mind reading things from people I disagree with. That's why I enjoy reading posts from Torie, Sam Spade, Inks, etc.

What I don't enjoy reading is mindless drivel that contributes nothing to the forum. That's what your posts are.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 15, 2011, 10:45:58 AM

since I'm very stupid as I was told here so many times I have a stupid question

If liberals who are much smarter then conservatives because there so open-minded why wouldn't they want to see what people who disagree with them have to say

I don't mind reading things from people I disagree with. That's why I enjoy reading posts from Torie, Sam Spade, Inks, etc.

What I don't enjoy reading is mindless drivel that contributes nothing to the forum. That's what your posts are.
how about the fact that I was the only one to predict that Marriage redefinition would be a major player in this race which you would have to be a complete idiot to miss at this point.(why do I feel I might have stumbled on to something here)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 15, 2011, 11:56:21 AM

since I'm very stupid as I was told here so many times I have a stupid question

If liberals who are much smarter then conservatives because there so open-minded why wouldn't they want to see what people who disagree with them have to say

I don't mind reading things from people I disagree with. That's why I enjoy reading posts from Torie, Sam Spade, Inks, etc.

What I don't enjoy reading is mindless drivel that contributes nothing to the forum. That's what your posts are.
how about the fact that I was the only one to predict that Marriage redefinition would be a major player in this race which you would have to be a complete idiot to miss at this point.(why do I feel I might have stumbled on to something here)


I reminded of a story from the book, "Why Johnny can't tell right from wrong?"


The author, a professor, showed his class a film of a counselor hosting a sex-education discussion in high school. The counselor led the discussion by asking for questions from the students. The students asked their questions, she answered, and, then, concluded by pulling a series of flash cards that demonstrated the proper use of condoms.

The professor asked his students what they thought of what they just watched. The students were impressed with democratic nature of the discussion. The professor noted that he thought it was propaganda that they had just watched.

The professor noted that he won the students over to his viewpoint when he asked, "Had the discussion led to a support for abstinence, would the conselor had pulled out a series of flash cards explaining abstinence?" The discussion ended with certain conclusions because the moderator of the discussion meant it to end exactly that way. The outcome was pre-decided, and, to the extent that that outcome could be made to appear to spontaneous, so much the better.

You have to understand how these people think. When they say, "adds nothing to the discussion" they simply mean that your participation here doesn't further his agenda. That's it. He doesn't want a discussion where all viewpoints participate, everyone states his case, and the best ideas win.


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: krazen1211 on September 15, 2011, 04:08:02 PM
People actually think this could be competitive? The Republicans have no chance at winning this seat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPa8teSoLwg

Replace "Jane Corwin" with whoever the Republican nominee is. Election is over.

NYJew, this mindless, incorrect drivel is why Meeker is crying about you.

Meeker declaring an election over is supposed to make it over.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 15, 2011, 04:09:51 PM

There was never any real reason to expect it to be. How the hell are the Republicans going to take this seat after losing NY-26? That'd be like the Democratic nominee winning Georgia but losing Michigan.

By getting a majority of the votes.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 15, 2011, 04:38:36 PM
From the below, you can see just how tight a correlation there was between the McCain vote and the Turner vote. It appears to have been a generalized swing (at least among whites), rather than something special to Orthodox Jews.  If anything, at least based on the coloration, the swing appears to have been higher among Catholics. That McCain area in the NW corner of the CD is Catholic.



Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 15, 2011, 04:49:13 PM
Looks like I have a fan club. Neat!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 15, 2011, 05:32:54 PM
From the below, you can see just how tight a correlation there was between the McCain vote and the Turner vote. It appears to have been a generalized swing (at least among whites), rather than something special to Orthodox Jews.  If anything, at least based on the coloration, the swing appears to have been higher among Catholics. That McCain area in the NW corner of the CD is Catholic.

except Orthodox Jews aren't strait Republicans we're a swing vote (though the democrats are looking to end this) that breaks at around 70% in most elections.

leave aside the issue and Orthodox Jews vote the opposite% for Weprin


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 15, 2011, 06:23:15 PM
Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 15, 2011, 06:28:15 PM
Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

Weprin would have been sworn in today.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 15, 2011, 06:44:54 PM
Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

Weprin would have been sworn in today.

The correct answer is that Weprin would have narrowly lost if he had voted against gay marriage. If Obama's approval ratings were 10 points higher, Weprin would have been sworn in today regardless of his vote on gay marriage.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on September 15, 2011, 07:03:53 PM
Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

Weprin would have been sworn in today.

The correct answer is that Weprin would have narrowly lost if he had voted against gay marriage. If Obama's approval ratings were 10 points higher, Weprin would have been sworn in today regardless of his vote on gay marriage.

Bingo!


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 15, 2011, 08:28:02 PM
Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.
with out seeing the exact numbers (but based on the info I have, certain % and of reports of very High Orthodox and Russian Turnout) I would either way Weprin wins but I think it would be a lot closer in the case of Weprin still voting for marriage but a friendlily environment.
you can see in the maps that Rego Park and Forrest Hills had many red areas in this race and not in 2008 and that was due mostly to Bucharian Jews showing up because of the marriage vote (this is also assuming he didn't have any other issues gay parades, gay speeches (if you know anything about this race you'll know exactly what I'm talking about) ext.).  In Kew Garden Hills, Forrest Hills, Flatbush I heard reports of very high turnouts.
considering that this district had a low overall turnout It's clear what won this race.

The thing about Obama was very important because that was spread across the whole district (though concentrated in White catholic neighborhoods) so it made the protest vote against marriage redefinition possible.  To see how much Obama's losing the non Orthodox Jewish vote I would have to wait for till I get more precise info.

I repeat for all the people who are to dense to figure it out many Orthodox Jews routinely vote democrat in one race and Republican in another in the same year at 75%+ rates. Weprin would have gotten a lot of orthodox votes if not for the marriage vote which is the whole reason he was picked because the democratic leadership in Queens underestimated the fact that Jews would not only reject one of their own but one who funded more Orthodox organizations then any other politician on any level of government .  He tried to run in the Orthodox Jewish community on that record but he couldn't because of the gay issues. losing the highest voting demographic (it would have been  if there would have been a Orthodox Jew running as a Orthodox Jew in this district) from 70%+ in your camp to 70%+ (wont know the more exact estimates for a while)  in your opponents camp would have more then closed the gap.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 15, 2011, 08:49:33 PM
Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

Weprin would have been sworn in today.

The correct answer is that Weprin would have narrowly lost if he had voted against gay marriage. If Obama's approval ratings were 10 points higher, Weprin would have been sworn in today regardless of his vote on gay marriage.
in addition to what I said before the demographic that hates Obama (Orthodox Jews) the most in this district would have voted for weprin if not for the marriage


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 15, 2011, 10:29:29 PM
in addition to all the people who voted based on marriage almost all the Orthodox media (in general the Orthodox media never asks hard ball questions) was super against Weprin because of marriage (bashing him on everything much more then they normally would because of that vote), all Turner's endorsers (rabbis, politicians, and other leaders )endorsersed him based on marriage.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 15, 2011, 10:36:59 PM
PS Iv'e also heard from very reliable sources (notice this is plural) and it was quisy reported on in the daily news.
That Koch and turner made a secret deal in addition to the M,M and SS that Turner would not use marriage redefinition in this election (unlike what he did last time in the Orthodox communities (though many people last time didn't know who he was because he was running against Weiner)).  If Koch made that deal because he was afraid that this would become a referendum on gay marriage and as we know this district is against it (which would serve him right because now he's a pariah in gay circles more then ever before)


Title: Re: NY-09, Anthony Weiner's Seat
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 15, 2011, 10:43:28 PM

Lol. I was the first to call it.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 15, 2011, 11:05:38 PM
Yes, NY Jew, there does appear to have been an especially strong swing in Rego Park to Turner (I noticed that before and should have mentioned it, but was pressed for time when I posted, and forgot), along with the Catholic areas in the NW corner (Middletown), where you see a lot more red than in 2008. I wonder why Rego Park voted for Obama but not Welprin, when the rest of the Orthodox areas also voted for McCain. I suspect in white areas there was a swing everywhere (including upper middle class fairly Jewish more secular Forest Hills), it was just a matter of degree.  I don't know about the Hispanic precincts, as to whether they swung, or just didn't vote much. They still went for Welprin.

The white Catholic areas of Brooklyn of course swung massively to Turner. They went for McCain, but this time by much larger margins.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 15, 2011, 11:33:36 PM
in the rest of far Rockway outside of the 9th CD which overlaps with the 23 Assembly district (many of it Orthodox) went  3178 to 491 in favor of Philip Goldfeder the democrat (and there was a last minute marriage issue regarding Goldfeder )

If anyone thinks that Orthodox Jews will not vote for a democrat the same area went 5616-3541 for Obama

the 2 most Orthodox EDs combined in this area went 1039-96 McCain

I think this proves that Orthodox Jews this year would still vote democrat


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 15, 2011, 11:47:08 PM
Yes, NY Jew, there does appear to have been an especially strong swing in Rego Park to Turner (I noticed that before and should have mentioned it, but was pressed for time when I posted, and forgot), along with the Catholic areas in the NW corner (Middletown), where you see a lot more red than in 2008. I wonder why Rego Park voted for Obama but not Welprin, when the rest of the Orthodox areas also voted for McCain. I suspect in white areas there was a swing everywhere (including upper middle class fairly Jewish more secular Forest Hills), it was just a matter of degree.  I don't know about the Hispanic precincts, as to whether they swung, or just didn't vote much. They still went for Welprin.

The white Catholic areas of Brooklyn of course swung massively to Turner. They went for McCain, but this time by much larger margins.
Bucharians didn't vote in that election (relativity new to the country and has no political experience ) this election for some reason there got involved in the race (I wonder if it has to due with that thing that I keep getting made fun of over) massive registering campaign there from what I heard.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 16, 2011, 12:47:39 PM
here's the amount Turner (not Turner's overall vote) won over Weprin in the combined majority Orthodox EDs by Assembly seat (based on these results I don't see how Weprin wouldn't have won if there was no gay issues (I gave up after these ADs because it's clear to me that this was enough even with mild Turnout in other Jewish areas))
44 607 votes
45 1277 votes
48 604 votes

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 16, 2011, 02:25:58 PM
the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

Quote
homo problems

Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 16, 2011, 02:49:34 PM
the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

Quote
homo problems

Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.
when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 16, 2011, 03:07:34 PM
http://m.nypost.com/p/news/local/brooklyn/weiner_gets_brush_off_a1vNTFMYqECUbAxvnhz48M

“Weiner left his toothbrush behind! It literally says ‘Anthony’ on it,” an insider said.

Turner’s wife, Peggy, a registered nurse, personally requested that congressional cleaners be brought in to scrub the bathroom, the insider said.

There also was talk of replacing the carpeting and Weiner’s office chair, the insider said.

“I do have a Twitter account. But I will use it fully clothed,” Turner quipped.




Lol.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 16, 2011, 03:54:34 PM
the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

Quote
homo problems

Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.
when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)

...which...which aspect of what Coolidge did to the Republican Party? Do you mean leading it to one EC landslide and setting up another? Indirectly leading to a crushing defeat later on with my economic policies? Making it more conservative somehow? And what does any of this have to do with the shape or demographics of NY-09?

While I can parse most of what you're saying, your random use of Hebrew nouns (other than teshuva, which should be obvious to anyone) also isn't helping your case, as it makes you seem insular.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 16, 2011, 04:11:38 PM
I need a Yiddish dictionary!  :)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on September 16, 2011, 04:17:15 PM
Woah, we're still talking about this?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on September 16, 2011, 06:00:36 PM
Woah, we're still talking about this?

We just can't seem to nail down precisely exactly where the lines on the Venn Diagram go delimiting the nexus between certain Jews and gay nuptials. It will probably take another several pages to get that most important job done. Deal with it!  :P


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on September 16, 2011, 06:41:46 PM

Lord knows I got those.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 16, 2011, 07:00:05 PM

I got 99 problems but gay marriage ain't one.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 16, 2011, 08:33:46 PM
here's the amount Turner (not Turner's overall vote) won over Weprin in the combined majority Orthodox EDs by Assembly seat (based on these results I don't see how Weprin wouldn't have won if there was no gay issues (I gave up after these ADs because it's clear to me that this was enough even with mild Turnout in other Jewish areas))
44 607 votes
45 1277 votes
48 604 votes

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.


Isn't it amazing how when some don't have facts and data on their side, they just spout insults?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 16, 2011, 08:44:57 PM
I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 16, 2011, 10:29:35 PM
I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again?

Maybe 12-20% of likely special election voters, but they tend to be far more swingy than other voters and a lot more reliable for turnout, so it depends on other groups'  turnout too for how to calculate it.

Although on the federal level, they're not swingy at all  lately! If you were to hypothetically subtract out Orthodox voters who voted against pre-scandal Weiner in 2010 (Weiner was a 7-term incumbent or something with all the money in the world), their likely voter population might be cut in at least a half, if not two thirds.  Makes you wonder if Weprin was right to spend all that time focusing on the Orthodox community (going onto the radio with Dov Hikind, other Orthodox radio shows, etc., but never once (http://www.cityhallnews.com/2011/08/in-ny-9-special-election-questions-about-outreach-to-latino-voters/) playing up his half-Latino roots, even though Latinos are 14% of the district).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: patrick1 on September 16, 2011, 11:58:01 PM
the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

Quote
homo problems

Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.
when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)

While I can parse most of what you're saying, your random use of Hebrew nouns (other than teshuva, which should be obvious to anyone) also isn't helping your case, as it makes you seem insular.

Orthodox Jews insular? Surely you jest.

All of the Orthodox I talk to loath Obama. The gay marriage thing didn't help matters, but that is not what lost this. Barry has big problems because many key (swing) interest groups are jumping ship. Every race has its own local issues but this was for many people a referendum on the President. 


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 17, 2011, 08:52:16 PM
the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

Quote
homo problems

Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.
when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)

...which...which aspect of what Coolidge did to the Republican Party? Do you mean leading it to one EC landslide and setting up another? Indirectly leading to a crushing defeat later on with my economic policies? Making it more conservative somehow? And what does any of this have to do with the shape or demographics of NY-09?

While I can parse most of what you're saying, your random use of Hebrew nouns (other than teshuva, which should be obvious to anyone) also isn't helping your case, as it makes you seem insular.

1. Coolidge lost the Jewish vote for the Republicans (and also lost many Catholics) (look it up if you don't know why)
2. the message was specifically for you and not meant that everyone should understand it. (and you supposedly know Hebrew, which I know see isn't true so don't lecture me on the bible again)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 17, 2011, 09:05:50 PM
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2011/09/16/2011-09-16_the_real_reason_jews_deserted_david_weprin_in_ny9_its_not_because_theyre_mad_at_.html#ixzz1YGSHQIhO


"In the 27th AD, Simanowitz won the 44th ED - in Kew Gardens Hills - by roughly a 4 to 1 margin.  Weprin lost it by a similar ratio. "
I wonder what made people change their minds (keep in mind their was a slight fear that Simanowitz might vote the wrong way on marriage when it comes up for a repeal)

everyone I spoke to (I'm 100% sure that I spoke to more Orthodox Jews who voted in this race than anyone of you did and they'll be more honest with me) in this race voted solely due to marriage ext.




Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 17, 2011, 09:06:19 PM
I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again?

Maybe 12-20% of likely special election voters, but they tend to be far more swingy than other voters and a lot more reliable for turnout, so it depends on other groups'  turnout too for how to calculate it.

Although on the federal level, they're not swingy at all  lately! If you were to hypothetically subtract out Orthodox voters who voted against pre-scandal Weiner in 2010 (Weiner was a 7-term incumbent or something with all the money in the world), their likely voter population might be cut in at least a half, if not two thirds.  Makes you wonder if Weprin was right to spend all that time focusing on the Orthodox community (going onto the radio with Dov Hikind, other Orthodox radio shows, etc., but never once (http://www.cityhallnews.com/2011/08/in-ny-9-special-election-questions-about-outreach-to-latino-voters/) playing up his half-Latino roots, even though Latinos are 14% of the district).

many Jews voted against Weiner last time because of marriage and the like (Turner last time ran on a social Conservative platform which many Jews still remember from last time) (If Turner would have run a better campaign last time he would have beat Weiner too)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on September 18, 2011, 07:15:32 AM
Let's not pretend that Orthodox Jews "believing Obama is anti-Semitic" isn't just a projection and proactive defense of their own issues with Obama's ethnic and racial background.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Verily on September 18, 2011, 07:56:12 AM
I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

The key point is that McCain already won over 90% of the Orthodox Jewish vote in this district in 2008. They couldn't be the deciding factor because they didn't have any more room to swing (although I suppose there might have been a turnout differential). Any talk on here of marriage is just noise.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 18, 2011, 08:04:40 AM
More to the point (maybe?) it is a distraction from the patterns that are genuinely troubling .


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 18, 2011, 12:52:01 PM
Let's not pretend that Orthodox Jews "believing Obama is anti-Semitic" isn't just a projection and proactive defense of their own issues with Obama's ethnic and racial background.

I guess when Orthodox Jews voted for Alan West we were also being racist
considering the peanut farmer is even more widely considered an anti semite I wonder how you'll spin that.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 18, 2011, 12:56:47 PM
I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

The key point is that McCain already won over 90% of the Orthodox Jewish vote in this district in 2008. They couldn't be the deciding factor because they didn't have any more room to swing (although I suppose there might have been a turnout differential). Any talk on here of marriage is just noise.
because if not for the marriage Weprin would have won the Orthodox vote big putting him
if you can't understand this basic fact your totally clueless into the Orthodox vote.
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 18, 2011, 09:37:05 PM
the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

Quote
homo problems

Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.
when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)

...which...which aspect of what Coolidge did to the Republican Party? Do you mean leading it to one EC landslide and setting up another? Indirectly leading to a crushing defeat later on with my economic policies? Making it more conservative somehow? And what does any of this have to do with the shape or demographics of NY-09?

While I can parse most of what you're saying, your random use of Hebrew nouns (other than teshuva, which should be obvious to anyone) also isn't helping your case, as it makes you seem insular.

1. Coolidge lost the Jewish vote for the Republicans (and also lost many Catholics) (look it up if you don't know why)
2. the message was specifically for you and not meant that everyone should understand it. (and you supposedly know Hebrew, which I know see isn't true so don't lecture me on the bible again)

1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.
2. That's asinine. We're on a public forum and you're making a fool of yourself. (I never claimed to be fluent in Hebrew, just that I could more-or-less make out what you were saying because the vocabulary you were using was not exactly advanced. Okay, here, you want to play rough? Give me an analysis of the Parable of the Labourers in the Vineyard. A GOOD analysis. In Koine Greek. Now.)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on September 19, 2011, 12:24:24 AM
I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

The key point is that McCain already won over 90% of the Orthodox Jewish vote in this district in 2008. They couldn't be the deciding factor because they didn't have any more room to swing (although I suppose there might have been a turnout differential). Any talk on here of marriage is just noise.
because if not for the marriage Weprin would have won the Orthodox vote big putting him
if you can't understand this basic fact your totally clueless into the Orthodox vote.
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.

There is a bit of logic here. The Presidency has the greatest influence on foreign policy, the Congress some, and state offices very little. If Israel is priority #1, priority #1 will sway the Presidential vote, priorities #2,#3... will balance the Congressional vote, and priorities #2,#3... will dictate the state office vote.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 19, 2011, 10:33:42 AM
Quote
1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.
KKK and 1924 Immigration bill


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 19, 2011, 10:49:24 AM
I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

The key point is that McCain already won over 90% of the Orthodox Jewish vote in this district in 2008. They couldn't be the deciding factor because they didn't have any more room to swing (although I suppose there might have been a turnout differential). Any talk on here of marriage is just noise.
because if not for the marriage Weprin would have won the Orthodox vote big putting him
if you can't understand this basic fact your totally clueless into the Orthodox vote.
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.

There is a bit of logic here. The Presidency has the greatest influence on foreign policy, the Congress some, and state offices very little. If Israel is priority #1, priority #1 will sway the Presidential vote, priorities #2,#3... will balance the Congressional vote, and priorities #2,#3... will dictate the state office vote.
not the way I broke it down
1. is the reason why Orthodox Jews voted for Turner over Weprin is gay marriage (very easy to prove if you want to look at any Orthodox Web site on this election, speak to may Orthodox Jews is in this district, read the Orthodox Newspapers that went for Turner, find out why prominent Orthodox Jews endorsed Turner, look at the polling data that breaks down Orthodox Jews into a separate category)
and now point 2 which is where I said it was illogical
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 19, 2011, 02:12:15 PM
Quote
1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.
KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

The key point is that McCain already won over 90% of the Orthodox Jewish vote in this district in 2008. They couldn't be the deciding factor because they didn't have any more room to swing (although I suppose there might have been a turnout differential). Any talk on here of marriage is just noise.
because if not for the marriage Weprin would have won the Orthodox vote big putting him
if you can't understand this basic fact your totally clueless into the Orthodox vote.
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.

There is a bit of logic here. The Presidency has the greatest influence on foreign policy, the Congress some, and state offices very little. If Israel is priority #1, priority #1 will sway the Presidential vote, priorities #2,#3... will balance the Congressional vote, and priorities #2,#3... will dictate the state office vote.
not the way I broke it down
1. is the reason why Orthodox Jews voted for Turner over Weprin is gay marriage (very easy to prove if you want to look at any Orthodox Web site on this election, speak to may Orthodox Jews is in this district, read the Orthodox Newspapers that went for Turner, find out why prominent Orthodox Jews endorsed Turner, look at the polling data that breaks down Orthodox Jews into a separate category)
and now point 2 which is where I said it was illogical
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.


This exchange puts me in the uncomfortable position of defending Bob, but his analysis has the benefit of being grammatically coherent. Do you even realise that he's not actually disagreeing with you?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 19, 2011, 03:37:01 PM
Quote
1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.
KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.


Coolidge, and Davis specifically (keep in mind that the presidents position is mistakenly taken for the parties even in are own times)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 19, 2011, 03:39:26 PM


This exchange puts me in the uncomfortable position of defending Bob, but his analysis has the benefit of being grammatically coherent. Do you even realise that he's not actually disagreeing with you?
he gave him to much credit


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 19, 2011, 04:29:41 PM
Quote
1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.
KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.


Coolidge, and Davis specifically (keep in mind that the presidents position is mistakenly taken for the parties even in are own times)

If you're interested in the Democrats' positioning at this time I'd highly recommend a book titled The 103rd Ballot: Democrats and the Disaster in Madison Square Garden, about the 1924 DNC. It's considerably more complicated than just Davis, although I agree with you that Coolidge sure as Hell didn't do sh**t for Jews or Catholics (or much of anybody, really; then again he also didn't do much stuff against anybody in particular, so...).


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 19, 2011, 05:33:58 PM
Quote
1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.
KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.


Coolidge, and Davis specifically (keep in mind that the presidents position is mistakenly taken for the parties even in are own times)

If you're interested in the Democrats' positioning at this time I'd highly recommend a book titled The 103rd Ballot: Democrats and the Disaster in Madison Square Garden, about the 1924 DNC. It's considerably more complicated than just Davis, although I agree with you that Coolidge sure as Hell didn't do sh**t for Jews or Catholics (or much of anybody, really; then again he also didn't do much stuff against anybody in particular, so...).
the 1924 immigration bill was against Jews and Catholics.

I understand it's more "complicated than just Davis" but the effect of his condemning the Klan and Coolidge not had a damning effect on ethnic whites voting Republican for years afterwards.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 19, 2011, 05:36:16 PM
Quote
1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.
KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.


Coolidge, and Davis specifically (keep in mind that the presidents position is mistakenly taken for the parties even in are own times)

If you're interested in the Democrats' positioning at this time I'd highly recommend a book titled The 103rd Ballot: Democrats and the Disaster in Madison Square Garden, about the 1924 DNC. It's considerably more complicated than just Davis, although I agree with you that Coolidge sure as Hell didn't do sh**t for Jews or Catholics (or much of anybody, really; then again he also didn't do much stuff against anybody in particular, so...).
the 1924 immigration bill was against Jews and Catholics.

I understand it's more "complicated than just Davis" but the effect of his condemning the Klan and Coolidge not had a damning effect on ethnic whites voting Republican for years afterwards.

All right, I'll concede this point. Though I don't even remember how it came up.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 19, 2011, 05:50:12 PM
Quote
1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.
KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.


Coolidge, and Davis specifically (keep in mind that the presidents position is mistakenly taken for the parties even in are own times)

If you're interested in the Democrats' positioning at this time I'd highly recommend a book titled The 103rd Ballot: Democrats and the Disaster in Madison Square Garden, about the 1924 DNC. It's considerably more complicated than just Davis, although I agree with you that Coolidge sure as Hell didn't do sh**t for Jews or Catholics (or much of anybody, really; then again he also didn't do much stuff against anybody in particular, so...).
the 1924 immigration bill was against Jews and Catholics.

I understand it's more "complicated than just Davis" but the effect of his condemning the Klan and Coolidge not had a damning effect on ethnic whites voting Republican for years afterwards.

All right, I'll concede this point. Though I don't even remember how it came up.

here's how
Quote
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under Roosevelt)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 19, 2011, 06:48:07 PM
Quote
1. Okay, I'll bite. I'd love to hear your interpretation of the politics of the 1920s.
KKK and 1924 Immigration bill

1924 Immigration bill, yes, but the Democrats were much more in the pocket of the KKK than the Republicans were.


Coolidge, and Davis specifically (keep in mind that the presidents position is mistakenly taken for the parties even in are own times)

If you're interested in the Democrats' positioning at this time I'd highly recommend a book titled The 103rd Ballot: Democrats and the Disaster in Madison Square Garden, about the 1924 DNC. It's considerably more complicated than just Davis, although I agree with you that Coolidge sure as Hell didn't do sh**t for Jews or Catholics (or much of anybody, really; then again he also didn't do much stuff against anybody in particular, so...).
the 1924 immigration bill was against Jews and Catholics.

I understand it's more "complicated than just Davis" but the effect of his condemning the Klan and Coolidge not had a damning effect on ethnic whites voting Republican for years afterwards.

All right, I'll concede this point. Though I don't even remember how it came up.

here's how
Quote
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under Roosevelt)

Ah, yes.

Here's a question for you: Don't you also argue that it's gerrymandered already?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 19, 2011, 07:02:18 PM

Here's a question for you: Don't you also argue that it's gerrymandered already?
of course the Jewish Communities in Brooklyn are the most gerrymandered areas in the country but right now most people don't realize how bad it is if this is done it would be broadcast across the country.



In short If this district is eliminated then Jews across the country will rebel against the dems big Because this will be seen as targeting Jews which it is (the ones who will be furious over this one are growing rapidly)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 19, 2011, 07:51:38 PM

Here's a question for you: Don't you also argue that it's gerrymandered already?
]

In short If this district is eliminated then Jews across the country will rebel against the dems big Because this will be seen as targeting Jews which it is (the ones who will be furious over this one are growing rapidly)


umm..this district being eliminated would lead to a district with a higher concentration of Jews than NY-9 most likely, and better representation

also -- wouldn't be Democrats, it'd be a bipartisan agreement between the GOP and Dems


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 19, 2011, 08:48:32 PM

Here's a question for you: Don't you also argue that it's gerrymandered already?
]

In short If this district is eliminated then Jews across the country will rebel against the dems big Because this will be seen as targeting Jews which it is (the ones who will be furious over this one are growing rapidly)


umm..this district being eliminated would lead to a district with a higher concentration of Jews than NY-9 most likely, and better representation

also -- wouldn't be Democrats, it'd be a bipartisan agreement between the GOP and Dems
depends how it's done destroying Turner with out ungerrymandering Brooklyn people will be furious.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 19, 2011, 08:50:42 PM

Here's a question for you: Don't you also argue that it's gerrymandered already?
]

In short If this district is eliminated then Jews across the country will rebel against the dems big Because this will be seen as targeting Jews which it is (the ones who will be furious over this one are growing rapidly)


umm..this district being eliminated would lead to a district with a higher concentration of Jews than NY-9 most likely, and better representation

also -- wouldn't be Democrats, it'd be a bipartisan agreement between the GOP and Dems
depends how it's done destroying Turner with out ungerrymandering Brooklyn people will be furious.
not if Coumo vetos what ever the Republicans put forth


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Lunar on September 19, 2011, 09:36:30 PM
I challenge you to draw a situation where NY-9 is gone that divides the Orthodox Brooklyn vote more than it's currently divided.

I'm not sure if it's possible, it certainly seems quite difficult at the very least.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on September 19, 2011, 10:21:35 PM
I challenge you to draw a situation where NY-9 is gone that divides the Orthodox Brooklyn vote more than it's currently divided.

I'm not sure if it's possible, it certainly seems quite difficult at the very least.
It's possible in Brooklyn but not much but
right now Weiner's seat includes the Orthodox Jewish communties in Queens and splitting those off will destroy both communities


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on October 04, 2011, 11:12:47 AM
the final results are in and Turner won by 3686 votes


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 04, 2011, 01:05:05 PM
dedicated to all my critics (hope you have fun tomorrow, because the Jewish Community will be happy though we would have been much happier if this election was not necessary (and I wasn't referring to Weiner's problems (though that too)))
just to repost some of the comments that were said after I made my prediction on August 11th that this will be won based on marriage redefinition (now even a Philip Goldfeder (Orthodox politician running for the 23 Assembly district) is trying to separate him self from Weprin based on that)


Careful you don't go throwing up on yourself with all that spinning you're doing there.

That's the third time you post this nonsense. I think we got the message, so please take your idiocy and get the hell out of here.


((((()((())(((

More funnies. Great to see who was correct every step of the way.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Meeker on October 04, 2011, 03:36:48 PM
You've got a problem, bud


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 04, 2011, 07:51:50 PM
Behavior of that sort doesn't do anyone any favours.

---

Anyways, that's quite a bit closer, right? The same thing happened in this district at the last normal election. So... if his election had been a tad closer, would it have bee possible for a wrong winner to declare victory and get seated (I think that's the American term)?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on October 05, 2011, 10:36:10 PM
here are some sampling of how much Turner won by in some Orthodox areas (in Brooklyn I didn't do 41 and 59) (there are also other majority Orthodox Jewish EDs in Queens and also a significant amount Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn under Ave T (though not a majority))
Turner won
by 603 votes in the 44th AD (8 EDs)
by 90 votes in the 47th AD (2 EDs)
by 745 votes in the 48th AD (9 EDs)
by 1903 votes in the 45th AD in all EDs that cover ground above Ave T (25 EDs)
by 896 votes in Kew Garden Hills EDs in the 27th (12) (in the most Jewish one of all these Turner won by 251 votes)

total of all these 4237 more votes for Turner then Weprin

final results of the entire election Turner won by 3686 votes

in short there is no way that Turner Wins with out the Orthodox vote which came primarily due to marriage redefinition.



Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: Torie on October 05, 2011, 11:55:34 PM
Behavior of that sort doesn't do anyone any favours.

---

Anyways, that's quite a bit closer, right? The same thing happened in this district at the last normal election. So... if his election had been a tad closer, would it have bee possible for a wrong winner to declare victory and get seated (I think that's the American term)?

Correct verb American style, but no. It is highly unlikely that Turner would have been seated if there were some loose ends. The Dems would have howled. It would have required them to have been silent. But if he were "seated," and the numbers were reversed, he would have been "unseated."

Those uncounted precincts seemed to have never been counted, however (I checked and the numbers did not increase). They must have merged precincts, and nobody told AP. Thus the margin was less, because the "uncounted" were mostly in the Pubbie zone.


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: BigSkyBob on October 06, 2011, 11:42:22 AM
Behavior of that sort doesn't do anyone any favours.

---

Anyways, that's quite a bit closer, right? The same thing happened in this district at the last normal election. So... if his election had been a tad closer, would it have bee possible for a wrong winner to declare victory and get seated (I think that's the American term)?

"Sworn in."


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on October 06, 2011, 11:53:11 PM
interesting numbers for a special election in many areas Turner got more votes (not %) then he did last time (any guesses what all these districts have in common)


in the 22th AD
2011 Turner (17 votes) Weprin (71 votes)
2010 Turner (44 votes) Weiner (136 votes)

in the 23th AD
2011 Turner (6164 votes) Weprin (4322 votes)
2010 Turner (7144 votes) Weiner (8098 votes)

in the 24th AD
2011 Turner (1476 votes) Weprin (2914 votes)
2010 Turner (2335 votes) Weiner (5055 votes)

in the 25th AD
2011 Turner (1309 votes) Weprin (2243 votes)
2010 Turner (1733 votes) Weiner (4348 votes)

in the 26th AD
2011 Turner (38 votes) Weprin (43 votes)
2010 Turner (88 votes) Weiner (119 votes)

in the 27th AD
2011 Turner (3714 votes) Weprin (4485 votes)
2010 Turner (3529 votes) Weiner (8505 votes)

in the 28th AD
2011 Turner (6436 votes) Weprin (8546 votes)
2010 Turner (7949 votes) Weiner (15585 votes)

in the 29th AD
2011 Turner (4 votes) Weprin (31 votes)
2010 Turner (6 votes) Weiner (73 votes)

in the 30th AD
2011 Turner (1002 votes) Weprin (667 votes)
2010 Turner (1641 votes) Weiner (1778 votes)

in the 31th AD
2011 Turner (4 votes) Weprin (10 votes)
2010 Turner (3 votes) Weiner (9 votes)

in the 35th AD
2011 Turner (343 votes) Weprin (403 votes)
2010 Turner (333 votes) Weiner (892 votes)

in the 37th AD
2011 Turner (110 votes) Weprin (93 votes)
2010 Turner (207 votes) Weiner (260 votes)

in the 38th AD
2011 Turner (1721 votes) Weprin (2089 votes)
2010 Turner (2454 votes) Weiner (5123 votes)

in the 41th AD
2011 Turner (3591 votes) Weprin (2517 votes)
2010 Turner (3832 votes) Weiner (5482 votes)

in the 44th AD
2011 Turner (836 votes) Weprin (233 votes)
2010 Turner (693 votes) Weiner (651 votes)

in the 45th AD
2011 Turner (5891 votes) Weprin (2588 votes)
2010 Turner (5573 votes) Weiner (5536 votes)

in the 46th AD
2011 Turner (17 votes) Weprin (25 votes)
2010 Turner (27 votes) Weiner (73 votes)

in the 48th AD
2011 Turner (1031 votes) Weprin (286 votes)
2010 Turner (959 votes) Weiner (925 votes)

in the 59th AD
2011 Turner (3517 votes) Weprin (2059 votes)
2010 Turner (4466 votes) Weiner (4249 votes)


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on October 07, 2011, 12:22:40 AM
Woah, this is still relevant?


Title: Re: NY-09, Special Election Thread
Post by: NY Jew on October 07, 2011, 09:43:43 AM
yes while this district is unique, the demographics that won it in this district are spread throughout the North East and i  can see similar results to this in a few other North East Districts on all levels of government depending how redistricting goes. (and assuming the Republicans in the North East can grow a brain they can start winning other CDs in the North East)