Talk Elections

Michele Bachmann carried the Iowa Caucus, with Governor Rick Perry taking second and Romney taking third. Bachmann and Perry went into New Hampshire looking to finish up Romney's chances. However Mitt Romney trounced Bachmann by twenty points.

Romney: 49.7%
Bachmann: 20.0%
Perry: 14.3%

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Romney at his victory rally in NH.

Following the primary Tim Pawlenty ended his campaign for President and endorsed Mitt Romney for President. Newt Gingrich also ended his campaign for President. Ron Paul remained, saying he would stay through South Carolina.

The Nevada Caucuses as expected went to Romney, with Bachmann taking a close second.
Romney: 43.2%
Bachmann: 40.1%
Perry: 12.6%

As the South Carolina primary neared Rick Perry produced an ad attack Romney's health care ad. Romney dismissed it and released an ad citing Perry's secessionist remark.

Bachmann pulled off a narrow win over Romney in the primary. Most pundits saw the primary as the end of Rick Perry's campaign.

Bachmann: 39.9%
Romney:    39.4%
Perry:         18.7%

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"...we'll we're two for two. So on we go America, it's onto super tuesday."

Following South Carolina Ron Paul ended his campaign.

Super Tuesday:

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Polling:
Romney vs. Obama
D: 47%
R: 47%

Romney vs. Bachmann
D: 49%
R: 41%

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Light Blue: Lean GOP
Dark Blue: Solid GOP
Light Red: Lean DEM
Dark Red: Solid DEM

The all important Florida primary. "Bachmann and Romney are neck n' neck."

"Romney has carried the all important primary state of Florida. He has beaten Representative Bachmann is what was predicted to be a close race."

Romney: 54.4%
Bachmann: 42.2%

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With Bachmann's loss in this state the question is whether or not she will remain in the primary election, or if she will concede to Mitt Romney.

The problem is she has a lot of supporters and they're enthused, so it's hard to say if she'll get out just yet.

Why is Wisconsin just "Dem lean"? Since Walker came into power, that state has moved significantly into the Pro-Obama column. His approvals in WI are among the highest in the nation by state. It is about as "Dem Solid" as they come.

That is not true by any means. Do you have any proof?

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/wi-approval-obama

So I exaggerated that WI was "among the highest in the nation", but recent polls (scroll down on the page to see recent polls from PPP and the WI Research Institute) have him in the 52-53 range with disapproval in the 42-44 range. Since Walker came into power and began royally pissing off every Wisconsinite who pays attention, Democrats approvals in general have soared. It's been like that in some states that are now under tea party run state governments.

I'll admit that a lot can happen between now and Nov. 2012, but at this point WI seems to be solid Dem.

Bachmann concedes nomination fight to Romney. Mitt Romney is the presumptive GOP nominee.
"I support Mitt Romney. He is the candidate that will defeat Barack Obama."

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"I congratulate Michele Bachmann on a hard fought fight, but she knows as much as I do that we must defeat President Obama this November..."

Following Romney's win of the nomination most pundits speculated it would be a tight race between the two. Though as Romney cleared the hurdle the real speculation began over who would be Romney's Vice-President choice. The person at the top of the pack was: Michele Bachmann.

Who would make the best Vice-President:
Bachmann: 46%
Rubio:       40%
Perry:       11%
Other:        3%

While the GOP prepares to nominate Romney and find its VP choice, Pres. Obama campaigns in Ohio just as the unemployment figures drop from 8.9%-8.8%.

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"We're on the road to recovery, it's slow, but it is coming."

The question remains will Pres. Obama be reelected? In a poll against Mitt Romney Pres. Obama holds a thin lead.

D: 47%
R: 46%

A week before the Republican Convention Mitt Romney announced his running mate: Michele Bachmann!

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"She is experienced, she is tested, she's ready and she'll be a great voice in my administration."

The pick was praised by Mitt Romney and it seemed to give Mitt Romney a bounce in the poll.

Romney vs. Obama:

R: 48%
D: 45%

The Republican Convention:

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"We're coming America, we're coming to take America back from the failed policies, from the failed leadership and the failed Presidency of Barack Obama."

Michele Bachmann's acceptance speech was praised and while rumors existed before the convention of Ron Paul running as a third party candidate all seemed to have died down the time Romney accepted the Republican nomination on the day unemployment hit: 9.1%

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"I will bring this country back. I will reverse economic decline to economic prosperity. I will see that jobs are created and America is once again the land to invest in. We know this is the greatest nation on earth. We know America can do better, and we will. We will win because our message is strong, it is tested and it is one President Obama cannot offer. He has failed America, but our country is not broken. America has been misguided, but that is nothing a good election cannot fix and that's what we're going to have."

Romney vs. Obama:

R: 50%
D: 44%

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The Democratic Convention

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Pres. Obama outlined his vision for the next four years and attacked Mitt Romney as continuing the policies of the past. Following his acceptance a new poll and electoral map outlined the general election:

R: 48%
D: 46%

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Light blue: Lean Republican
Dark blue: Solid Republican
Light red:  Lean Democrat
Dark red:   Solid Democrat
Grey:         Toss up.

D: 253
R: 235

The General Election:

Following the conventions the Romney/Bachmann ticket hit the ground. Campaigning in the battleground states of: Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada. President Obama's approval ratings stood at: 44%.

Romney vs. Obama:

R: 48%
D: 46%

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Romney speaking with voters.

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The Wind down:

The first debate centered around the economy, and Romney hit Pres. Obama for his ineffectiveness on dealing with the nation's economy, gas prices and the national debt. Perhaps the most anticipated moment of the night was when Pres. Obama addressed the issue of Health Care and his praise of Romney's plan in Massachusetts. Romney remained calm and simply smiled at the President and delivered a remark similar to Ronald Reagan's "There you go again" remark to Jimmy Carter.

Romney attacked the President on what he called an overreach on health care and suggested that he should have been called, if wanted to know what worked and what didn't in Massachusetts. Pres. Obama did not comment and the debate went on.

The reaction to the debate was that no one won. Though Romney received praised for his answers on the economy and health care.
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Romney vs. Obama

R: 47%
D: 47%

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Romney vs. Obama

The second debate which covered foreign policy proved to be an Obama victory, and the Vice-Presidential Debate proved to be a tie between Bachmann and Biden. The final debate proved itself to be a Romney victory. It was a town hall format and Romney seemed to answers the questions with ease, while Obama stumbled.

Romney came out of the final debate with a thin lead over President Obama.

R: 49%
R: 47%

Election Day:

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On election day President Obama and Mitt Romney appeared to be dead even.

R: 48%
D: 48%

Though pundits speculated whoever won would win narrowly, but no one could guess who that person would be. "It's a 50-50."

7:00

Good evening America, the race for the White House has come down to tonight: Election Night 2012. The polls have closed in six states and we can project winners in those states:

For Gov. Romney we project the states of:
Kentucky: 55%-43%
South Carolina: 56%-41%
Indiana: 57%-40%

For Pres. Obama we project the state of:
Vermont: 60%-38%

We cannot make projections in the states of Georgia or Virginia at this time, but hear stands the electoral map. It is Mitt Romney with an early lead, but we have more states to project, so this election is far from over.

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R: 28: 51.5%
D:   3: 46.0%

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At 7:30 Ohio and North Carolina remain too close to call, but we can project the state of West Virginia for Mitt Romney.

8:00

The eight o'clock hour and we have projections to make for the President. We project Mr. Obama will carry the states of:
Connecticut: 60%-38%
Delaware:     60%-38%
Maryland:     60%-38%
Maine:          55%-44%
Illinois:          60%-37%
New Jersey:   55%-44%
Massachusetts: 59%-40%
D.C.:              85%-13%

For Gov. Romney we project:
Tennessee:     55%-43%
Oklahoma:      60%-38%
Mississippi:      55%-44%
Missouri:         52%-45%
Alabama:        59%-40%

We can also project for him the battleground state of:
New Hampshire: 53%-45%

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R: 80
D: 75

And there is the map. Gov. Romney holds a five delegate lead over Pres. Obama in the electoral vote, and now, hold one we have a projection to make. Mitt Romney will carry the state of Georgia.

R: 51%
D: 47%

That now puts Gov. Romney at 96 electoral votes to President Obama's 75. We'll be back after this short break.

9:00

The nine o'clock hour and with 156 electoral delegates up for grabs we can project winners in the following states. For the President:
New York: 60%-39%
Rhode Island: 60%-39%
Wisconsin:      52%-45%
Minnesota:     52%-45%
Michigan:       51%-47%
New Mexico:   53%-44%

For Gov. Romney:
Texas: 56%-42%
South Dakota: 59%-39%
Kansas:           59%-39%
Nebraska:       59%-39%
Wyoming:       60%-38%
Colorado:         52%-45%

We can also project him the winner in the state of North Carolina. Pres. Obama carried it four years ago and it was the site of the Democratic Convention, but it returns the Republican tonight. North Carolina is now the fourth state to switch from Democrat to Republican tonight.

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Here stands the map:

R: 189
D: 149

Gov. Romney with a lead over President Obama, and it appears we have a major projection to make. President Obama will carry the state of Ohio. This is certainly a major blow to the Romney campaign, and we should note no Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio.

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We'll return in a moment.

Ohio goes for Obama: 50%-48%.
This is a major upset for Gov. Romney who was leading in the state as of yesterday. So now the question remains is Gov. Romney finished?

I don't know. Pennsylvania, Florida and Virginia are still outstanding, and the fact that North Carolina went for Romney as well as New Hampshire is telling.

Well we can now project Arizona for Gov. Romney. 51%-46%.

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R: 200
D: 167

10:00

We project that Montana, Utah and the state of Nevada have gone for Gov. Romney tonight. The state of Iowa remains undecided, where Gov. Romney holds a thin lead: 49.3%-48.7%

10:22

We can now make a major projection for Gov. Romney. He will carry the state of Florida.

R: 50.9%
D: 48.0%

Looking at the states of Virginia and Pennsylvania the President holds a small edge in the key stone state, while Gov. Romney leads in Virginia.

PA:
D: 50.0%
R: 48.6%

VA:
R: 50.7%
D: 48.1%

Breaking news. We can now project that Gov. Romney has carried the state of Virginia. Virginia has gone for Romney.

10:40

We can now project that President Obama will carry Pennsylvania.

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R: 257
D: 187

This race is anybody's call at this point. We'll have to see after the eleven o'clock call who has the upper hand.

10:56

We're just four minutes away from the calling of the West Coast States and it appears we have a major projection to make. Gov. Romney will carry the state of Iowa over President Obama.

R: 49.5%
D: 47.9%

That now puts Gov. Romney at 263 electoral delegates and as the polls close at eleven o'clock we will have a major projection.

11:00

We can project that Gov. Mitt Romney will be the 45th President of the United States. Based on wins in the state of Idaho and North Dakota Gov. Romney now stands at 270 electoral votes. He has defeated Pres. Obama and is now The President-elect.

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R: 270
D: 265

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President-elect Romney greets his supporters. "It is time to believe again America."

Final results:

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Mitt Romney/Michele Bachmann: 273 49.1%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden:            265 48.6%

Probably not the most likely, but anything's possible.

Not going to happen, but okay...

If Bachmann is anywhere near the ticket, Obama will get at least 400 500 electoral votes.

Don't underestimate her. Her danger is that despite some gaffes in the past, she comes across of pretty well informed on political issues and articulate, which hides some of her more conservative views.

I love how offended some people get when Obama loses in these What-If scenarios.