Talk Elections

Since the poll by poll results should be out any day, I have started a new topic to post the maps.  For all the poll maps, municipality by municipaltiy, and county by county, post here.  Should be interesting to see the results especially in Quebec to see just where the changes were as that was the province with the most dramatic changes of all.

We will still need the updated polling maps.

The 2008 maps won't necessary work with the 2011 results.

When a riding sees an increase in voters, a new poll is created from an existing poll. (i.e. 54 splits into 54 and 54-1).

 If a poll becomes too large on Election Day, an ‘alpha’ spilt occurs.  (i.e. 54A, 54B, 54C.  Voters who’s last ends in A-H vote in 54A, I-Q in 54B, and R-Z in 54C.).

If a riding sees a lot of splits, then the riding is most likely going to be renumbered in the following election. The polling maps become obsolete.

If you want to compare a riding.

Compare the Poll Numbers from the 2008 and 2011.

Find the Highest Regular Poll Number (polling number up to 399) from the 2008 election to 2011
election.

If they are the same then you should be able to use the map for that riding.

If not, the riding has re-numbered its polls. The occurs in ridings that has seen a sharp increase in voters (i.e. the 905 region outside Toronto)

Polls are number the following ways:
1 – 399      Regular Poll
400 Series   Mostly apartment blocks, and other single polling locations.
500 Series   Mobile Polls, Personal Care Homes, Hospitals, etc.
600 Series    Advance Polls


I hope this helps

  I was more thinking in terms of towns and geographical areas for rural ridings while neighbourhoods for urban ones.  Even if the poll numbers don't match, you can still visually get an idea of where each party has its support.

Well, usually, the poll by poll results names the town in which the poll is.
So, in those cases, a town map is possible.
Which is a bit useless, rural areas aren't experiencing growth, in general, so, no new precincts.
And for neighbourhoods, no. Sometimes, while they renumber, they move the numbers all around the riding, if I remember well.

  Even if numbers change dramatically, you can still compare maps visually.  Also hopefully we can do maps for entire cities like the GVRD, Toronto, Island of Montreal, Quebec City, Winnipeg, and Edmonton.  It would be interesting to see where each party's strength is in each city.

We can compare maps, but how are we supposed to do the new map if numbers are changed very much?

I know a few of you said I could use your maps on my site, if you want me to please let me know.

I think there are maps with the update poll by poll.  I realize you cannot compare poll by poll with last time, but you can still produce a visual image and compare those.  We already have those from 2008 in another thread, so this will be for 2011.

No, the maps are not provided by Elections Canada.

They are provided by Geogratis.

Geogratis is fine, whichever one works.  I will work on the municipalities and counties first and then I will do the poll by poll later, probably in the fall and winter when I have hours to spend indoors and when it was freezing cold outside, not when its nice out.

I haven't seen them on Elections Canada yet.  Anybody have any poll by poll results for any ridings.  I was hoping on getting a few maps up in the next week before I go off on my three week vacation to Europe.

The polling shape files have been released!

http://www.geogratis.gc.ca/download/electoral/2011/


However, the poll by poll results havn't been released. (The last 2 elections they were released under 2 months)

Im gonna see if I can get these to work this time. Otherwise, I'm going to have to rely on others for my blog.

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To see the map of the 2008 election: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2545_04_07_09_6_12_18.png (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2545_04_07_09_6_12_18.png)

Map instructions:
Chibougamau is the square thing at the bottom-right of the Northern Quebec map. Chapais is just to the west. Waswinipi is in the Bloc precinct (brown thing in the middle) and Lebel-sur-Quévillon too (it is the dot near the southern border). Matagami is to the west of that, in a 40% NDP precinct. Kuujjuaraapik and Whapmagoostui is the black dot in the south-east of the lonely Conservative precinct in Northern Quebec.
Vallée-de-l'Or goes below Northern Quebec. Senneterre is in the middle of the blue area, Val-d'or is the really big black area and Malartic is near the western border of the riding.

The grey precinct in Malartic is a Bloc-NDP tie.

So what to say.

Bloc won 2.5 precincts, while Liberals won 4 and Greens 5.

So, explanations.
Begin with the Green vote. Their candidate was a Inuit. He had excellent results in Inuit reservations and nothing elsewhere. His home reservation should be easy to guess.

Conservative vote. Well, the candidate was the very popular mayor of Senneterre. He won... Senneterre area, with more 60% at some places. The reservation win in the north is strange, but Inuit reservations always had strange vote patterns.

Liberal vote. Four inuit villages. There is a good news for them, their vote grew to around 15-20% in southern Val-d'Or. Bad news, they lost their lock on reservations and they polled around 2% in most French Northern Quebec and had 0 votes in a few precincts.

Bloc vote. Collapse. They tied NDP in a small Malartic precincts, won a precinct in economically depressed Lebel-sur-Quévillon and won with 4 votes on 6 casted in Desmaraisville, a clinically dead town (the dark BQ precinct around Waswanipi and Lebel-sur-Quévillon).

NDP vote. Well, they won no precinct last time. So, the candidate was a Cree, Cree voted for him massively. He got over 90% in his native reservation of Waswanipi. Chibougamau seems to love him, he had over 50% in all precincts. Last time, the city was a Bloc stronghold. They swept Val-d'Or, too.

I don't see a clear correation between Bloc support in 2008 and NDP support in 2011. Some areas swinged ''more'' than other ones.

Reposted from the other thread

Etobicoke-Lakeshore
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Bramalea-Gore-Malton
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So the results are out? :D

I'm going to be busy...

Shilly, can I use your maps for my blog? I'll give you credit for them.

absolutely.

Thanks x1000000. I'll get cracking on a post soon. (still working on my Saskatchewan election prediction)

For the record, I've got a Toronto composite map in the the works, so keep a eye out ;)

I'd be very curious to see a map of Westmount-Ville Marie

Some goodies would be Westmount-Ville Marie, Mont Royal, Ottawa-Orleans, Ottawa-Vanier, Scarborough, the Don Valley ridings, coastal Toronto ridings, Newton—North Delta, Ahuntsic, Vancouver Centre, Lac-Saint-Louis, Winnipeg North, Labrador, Yukon and MIKR.

Hash, what's with the username? I know North Bay is a seedy little town, but I was wondering what is making you laugh at it. I'm going to be going there in August, as I do every summer.

Inside joke related to somebody I know who's from North Bay.

Sweet, that'll hit many birds with one stone :)

Ok...

Alright so, even Ottawa South had some minor poll division boundary changes, and I tried to incorporate most of them from the map that was posted by Dean Sherratt in the gallery, but I couldn't tell where the boundaries were for some of the new polls.

So, here is Ottawa South with some minor boundary errors:

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Nipissing-Timiskaming

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Analysis on my blog: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/07/2011-federal-election-poll-maps.html

I need to stop making fun of North Bay then. Too bad, considering that the only person I know from North Bay is a daily comedy tour.

Well, their current and last mayors were Tories. And they were the city to bring us Mike Harris. So, it's not the best city politically. I reckon it'll be more blue in the provincial election.

While North Bay has a beautiful waterfront, and some nice bike trails, it's pretty "working class" - that is poor, and has no industry, and anyone with any prospects in life (i.e. all of my aunts and uncles) move out of the city.

North Bay is one place in northern Ontario that has absolutely no history of NDP support. ThunderBay, Sudbury, Timmins, the Soo have all gone NDP federally and provincially quite regularly, but North Bay never does and in fact the NDP is almost always a distant third there. is there any theory or reason as to why this is the case?

To me, North Bay is borderline on being in Northern Ontario. It doesn't politically behave like Northern Ontario, and, I went there a few times and it doesn't feel like Abitibi/North-Eastern Ontario.

I've asked my Dad this (my Dad is from there) on a few occasions. I think he mentioned something about the rest of Northern Ontario having a tradition of mining, and miners were/are NDP voters. North Bay's main industry however was the railroads, and that's dead now.

Interestingly, both of my Dad's parents are/were NDP supporters (my Dad's not... it skipped a generation), and both lived in North Bay. Go figure.

Oh, and Nipissing does have an NDP history! It voted CCF provincially in 1943 :)

The 40's were very good for the CCF in those areas, I suppose. The Quebec provincial CCF won the only seat of their history in 1940, in Rouyn-Noranda, which isn't so far of North Bay.

Note: The provincial TB-Akitokan will come after I finished the (probably all orange, so boring) map of the other Abitibi riding. Sorry to inflige you that, but I love my region.

No problem. Maps are desired, and welcome. :D

As for the CCF, they actually topped a nation wide poll in 1943 iirc. They formed the official opposition in Ontario, 4 seats away from winning. The CCF swept all but one Northern Ontario seats. They even won Parry Sound. The lone liberal seat was Algoma-Manitoulin.
Interestingly, the CCF won most of their seats in what would be called traditional NDP territory. I guess somethings never change.

Toronto, as promised.

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Right click for huge version.

That map is a thing of wonder.

Seconded.

Fantastic map, whats really exciting for the NewDemocrats is that they 1) finally won ridings that containted traditionally been strong (parkdale, dovercourt, york south, scarb SW), but 2) won polls and made inroads in new areas (Scarb Rouge River... the NDP's young tamil candidate helped more than anything, York west and even Don Valley east). Those will all be targets come October

Will you marry me?

I love Shilly maps.

I took the map and added the old city boundaries on to it.

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They are better visible at zoom in.

I find it really interesting that the NDP vote drops like a rock once you hit the York-North York border, even within the same ridings; and the same for the Liberal vote in the Toronto-North York border (witnesses where the old city "humps" up in the middle of the map.

Scarborough's vote is chaotic and seems to be ethnic at it's base, which is rare as I can't think of other places in Canada that vote ethnically outside of Montreal; and even then you'd have to consider the Quebecois an ethnicity, which I do not.

There is still a "tilted box" that goes from the Toronto Island to that huge island of Red in the northwest corner of the city. This follows a few rail lines up there. This has always, historically, been the hotbed of Liberal/NDP support, and always been opposed to voting Conservative for any period of time. I've always been curious exactly what makes this part of the city so... different. Old toronto poll maps will confirm this trend.

Really? I always thought ethnic voting was rampant in Canada, or in British Columbia at least. Given that most immigrants stay within Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver, one would assume the effect is only noticeable in those big three cities. But it's very real.

Interesting to see the clear-defined partisan boundaries of old Toronto melt away as one moves to Scarborough. There the swing is more uniform, something also seen in Etobicoke-Lakeshore and Don Valley East. That map will be studied for a long time.

Now I'm drooling to see a similar map for Montreal!

Excellent stuff. Analysis to come later.

That is excellent work, just exceptional! You've done a great job there, Shilly!

Meanwhile, remember this (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89136.msg1837133#msg1837133)?

This morning I printed it out and put it side by side with Shilly's map for comparison. Amazing!

Scarborough-Rouge River and Davenport weren't looking than they would go to the NPD 5 years later.

Daveport was always a possibility, but Rouge River came out of nowhere.

Wonderful. Montreal and Vancouver would be terrific also.

Scar Rouge River has a huge Sri Lankan Tamil population? That whole community shifted almost en masse to the NDP from the Liberals after the Liberals decided to support the Sri Lankan government against the Tamils in the civil war.

Tamil candidate as well, also an open seat. But still amazing.


Bit of an understatement regarding Scarborough-Rouge River, which was one of the safest seats for any party and looked totally impregnable.

Looks like the NDP noticed they did a masterful job with the nomination of Rathika (current MP), they Nominated Neethan Shan, another Tamil who previously ran in October for City Council... this wouldn't have been a huge target before May; now its on the NDP's radar

Did Jack even visit the riding much? It was not on anyone's radar in the pundit world. If Andrea visits the riding, we'll know we have a shot.

I don't think he visited that riding specifically, i think he did show up in scarborough though? (someone can correct me here) i know they had events in most of the ridings on the west side the NDP won.
Like Bramelea-Gore-Malton (wasn't won but a strong surprising second!), Scar. RR was a pleasant surprise and i expect Andrea to show up in both ridings... since the same candidate that ran federally, Jameet Singh (sikh lawyer) is running again in BGM. And Neethan has more name recognition from past campaigns.

Jack was in Guildwood on the last leg of the campaign, I know that for sure. And I remember him in Brampton and being surprised at the huge turnout there.

Sorry to break the gloating, but returning this thread to its original intent. Here's Ottawa-Orleans.

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The NDP actually won a poll! They had come close in that one in 2008. It includes a bunch of sketchy social housing in Blackburn Hamlet (which is pretty much a sh**thole).

Aside from that, little change aside from Liberal gains in Hiawatha Park (north of the 417) and Tory gains in high-growth Avalon. My own poll voted Liberal by a 10-pt margin or so.

I should have a fun riding this afternoon.

ha. The NDP winning a poll in that riding is hilarious. We never run a serious campaign there. I'll have to do a google street view of that poll to check it out.

It's a bunch of small, poor, sketchy social housing. I think it's also quite ethnically diverse. It's not a place to take a field trip to.

Similar areas voted NDP in Ottawa South as well. Although, I wouldn't use the term "sketchy". I'm fairly comfortable walking into social housing projects.  Although perhaps the one in BH is especially bad?

Actually, the last event of the 2011 NDP leader's tour was in Scarborough Rouge River. As you may recall, that final Sunday May 1 was a bit of a whistlestop down the 401 to Kingston, then Oshawa and then late at night on election eve Jack spoke at a mammoth rally in Rouge River with something like 1,000 people. I think they got word that it was looking very good in the home stretch!

Greetings from Nuremburg, Germany.  I haven't responded on anything as I have been out of the country since July 1st.  Most nights I am out enjoying the nice weather but the weather has been quite crappy here otherwise rain and only 15C, not the extreme heat you guys are having.  Anyways I will start working on the maps when I get home this weekend.  Probably on Sunday as I will be too jet lagged on Saturday.  Below are my comments on the map so far.  Please keep your replys to this.  If you want more information of my European trip send me a private message.

1.  Etobicoke-Lakeshore:  Surprised how few polls Ignatieff won.  Looks like the Liberal vote was pretty evenly distributed while it appears in the wealthier areas, the Tories got close to 50% and NDP in the single digits while in the more working class areas it was a three way split. 

2.  Nipissing-Timiskaming.  It appears it was North Bay that kept this riding close whereas the rest of the riding sort of resembled the North/South divide.  The Southern parts went Tory much like the neighbouring ridings and the Northern parts the NDP did better like elsewhere in Northern Ontario.  As for the NDP weakness in North Bay, it is sort of borderline Northern Ontario and usually the Tories tend to do better in these areas and NDP weaker. 

3.  Toronto:  I remember seeing a map in the Toronto Star not too long ago showing the wealthy neighbourhoods mostly near Yonge Street and the poorer largely immigrant ones in the Northwest and Northeast.  It appears much of the Tory strength was not in the heavily ethnic ridings, but rather the affluent ones.  I wonder if their policy on tax cuts vs. that of other parties played a role here.  The NDP has a long stretch of support but still weak in Etobicoke and North York.  While Scarborough asides from Scarborough-Rouge River and the very eastern parts seems like a mish mash of everything mind you most ridings were three way splits.  The Liberals narrowly won Etobicoke yet looking at the map it appears the Tories won far more polls in Etobicoke than the Liberals.  I am guessing in a lot of the wealthy areas, both parties got over 40% thus many were narrow Tory wins despite the darkness of blue, while the Liberals won by bigger margins in the Northern parts.  In Scarborough-Rouge River Jack Layton did in fact visit the riding although near the very end.  Also the NDP won amongst immigrants who had been in Canada less than 10 years while the Tories amongst those who had been in Canada for much longer periods and most in this riding are pretty recent arrivals.  It is not mostly Tamil, in fact it has a large Chinese and Black population.  The one thing about the riding as I believe whites are only 11% which is the lowest of any riding in Canada, so kind of a gage of how well parties do amongst visible minorities.  Up until recently, Scarborough was one of the Liberals strongest areas, even under Dion they got over 50% in Scarborough.  Ironically it was the NDP who rose the most, not the Tories who only went up slightly but won Scarborough Centre due vote splits while Pickering-Scarborough East is more 905 than 416 thus the Tory strength here.

Bramalea-Gore-Malton: It appears many of the Liberal areas swung over to the NDP while the Tories held their previous areas, otherwise the more white areas.  For all the talk of the Tories making a breakthrough amongst ethnic voters, it appears the NDP did too.  Mind you a lot of the heavily immigrant ridings they won we haven't posted the polls for yet.  I will be interested to see Brampton as a whole, Mississauga, and Markham, that will be a better indicator.

Ottawa-Orleans:  Are the Eastern and Southern parts more anglophone than other parts of the riding as historically the Francophone community use to vote heavily Liberal, or is this just because those areas are more suburban/rural and also further from the city centre thus fewer civil servants?

I may respond later if I find an internet cafe in the other cities I stop in.

Auf Wedershen

I spoke to Dan Harris (we go way back to our days in ONDY, was elected in Scarborough SW) at the NDP platform launch it must have been April 10thish, anyway at that point he was confident he could win... but SSW had no incumbant and a scandal around the tory candidate... plus this was Dan's i believe 8th run at office.

there are some great maps being show over on Rabble if anyone wants too look, they don't define the poll border (which i hate) but give some great pictures... Shilly's maps are better

http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/electoral-maps-2011-federal-election-poll-poll-results

Interesting stuff in the Toronto maps. Italians in the city remained loyally Liberal, the Portuguese and Spanish went NDP. The Chinese-Cantonese were more likely to vote Liberal on the whole than the other Chinese (except in dwtn Toronto).

Two more cool maps:

Ottawa-Vanier:

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NDP swept Sandy Hill and much of Lowertown, and also carried Vanier and Overbrook/those places south of Montreal Rd. Vanier is historically Francophone (but increasingly multicultural) and also rather poor, and historically very much Liberal. The NDP carrying it makes sense but is telling of the Liberal rout. Lots of 3-way or close 2-way Lib-NDP races in a lot of the riding.

The Liberals did do well in Rockcliffe Park (which went Tory in 2006) again. Conservatives won Beacon Hill North (anglo suburb) and Pineview (suburb).

and Westmount:

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Westmount vs. NDG/downtown. Obviously.

Holy s**t son. (looks at Ottawa-Vanier). I didn't realize the NDP would win that many polls. Clearly the French vote went overwhelmingly NDP. Too bad the rest of the riding is not very NDP friendly, and I'm sure they party did very poorly in Rockcliffe and Beacon Hill.  I think the party can do a lot better in Sandy Hill and Lower Town. This area was Alex Munter's best area in the 2006 municipal election, making me believe it's Ottawa most left wing neighbourhood.

BTW, my analysis of of the Toronto ridings have begun on my blog. It's pretty time consuming, so I'll release the ridings in stages.

I think Ottawa-Vanier will be very, very high on the NDP target list next time. The NDP came pretty close this time despite not targeting the riding at all and running a bit of a no-name candidate. Demographically it should be an NDP seat. Next time the NDP will probably get someone high profile and make an investment in the riding, Mauril Belanger may quit, and on top of that with Ontario gaining 18 new seats - its likely that some of the less NDP-friendly outer parts of the riding will get lopped off in redistribution.

It will also be interesting to see what happens to a riding like Westmount-Ville Marie with redistribution. Even though the seat allocation for Quebec may not change much - some boundaries will shift and Montreal could lose a seat or two to allow for new seats in burgeoning suburban areas. If Outremont is too small in population compared to Westmount - the downtown NDP part of Westmount-VM could get shifted into Outremont or Laurier-Ste. Marie. Who knows?

Hell yeah, York went NDP. :P And the science section of the campus (where I live) went NDP in 2006 too. Heh.

Loving the maps! Northern Ontario might be really interesting to do as well... not as much ridings as Toronto by a long shot.

How many voters are there at York U? Are there big residences or other student housing there?

Hmm. It's very much a commuter school. Not very much people living on campus. There are six undergraduate residences, and a few graduate/older undergraduate apartments. I would say 2000 people living on campus, or 3000 max. But even then, the election was held right after the winter semester ended, so it was substantially less than that, I would imagine.

More students live in The Village though, it's private property located between Assiniboine and Murray Ross. Seems to have went NDP as well. That might be a better indicator of how students vote, since the election was held after the winter semester.

eta: For what it's worth, it doesn't look like the Glendon campus went NDP.

My buildings are official residences and are lumped in with the village, and some condo's down on Finch; it's the only poll in York that voted Liberal apparently.

Er, this is my first map:

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The West End goes for the NDP while those who can afford apartments by the shore vote for the Conservatives. Nor do the Greens win a single poll, though that may be an error on my part. Quite a large number of polls were decided by 1 or 2-vote margins. The reason Fry won by 5% was advance polling.

I might make a map of the Lower Mainland.

Great work!


I will really be looking forward to seeing this!

Which is more a measure of the seat it's in (Don Valley West, where the NDP ran a de facto paper candidate) than anything.

SSW *did* have an incumbent: Liberal Michelle Simson (who came third).  But SRR *didn't*; which surely factors into Rathika's win.

This map appears to be consistent to the Vancouver mayoral race that I am/was working on, but have temporarily abandoned.

But, I did make this city council map:

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There is that right wing area on the north side of Downtown, and on the south side on False Creek. (I think it's Granville Island or something)

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To see the 2008 result map: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2545_12_07_09_5_20_03.png (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2545_12_07_09_5_20_03.png)

So, for people not knowing the area, La Sarre/Macamic/Parmarolle is in the north-west, Amos is the black blob in the north-east, Barraute is south-west of the lonely Bloc precinct, Rouyn-Noranda is the gigantic blob in the middle of the map. Notre-Dame-du-Nord/Ville-Marie/Laverlochère is in the southern half of the riding, on the Ontario border. Timiskaming Shores is on the other side of the boundary. Témiscaming is the black dot near the south of the boundary, surrounded by weird-looking precincts. It is 20-25 minutes away from North Bay.

Liberals and Conservatives didn't even come close of winning a precinct.

Bloc won three precincts. One in Landrienne (a farming village near Amos). Their mayor is very involved in the national debate, on the independance side and often appear in regional independantist political events with the Bloc MPs and the PQ MNA. The two others are in Rouyn-Noranda in middle-class areas. The tied precinct is the economically dead village of Rochebeaucourt, which is so bad than the church was closed. Wood-cutting doesn't bring money anymore and the farming land has a very low quality.

Strangely, NDP is stronger in rural and suburban areas than in cities, which doesn't make sense to me. Regional politics were explained in saying than rural areas were more independantist than cities. But, it seems reversed for now. The only explanation I see is than other parties (Liberal and Conservative) are in much better shape in cities than in rural areas (in this riding Liberal+Conservative was often around or below 10%).
A better idea?

Strong NDP results are often easy to explain. All 70% NDP precincts are Indian reservations and the good results in the north-west of the riding can be explaining by the NDP candidate coming from a village in that area. Weak NDP in the far north of the rding can be explaining because those towns are in Baie-James municipality and are, like the rest of the area, strongly independantist.

So, next, I'll do the provincial TB-Atikolan (probably bad spelling) map than Earl asked, then a map than someone asked me, then requests or undone maps of the Hashemite list (if we didn't finished by then, we are in fire today, apparently!).

The NDP does more poorly in Northern Ontario cities as well (compared to rural areas), so maybe that has something to do with it.

Then, rural areas are more-left wing than urban areas?

Strange. The only place where I know this pattern is Southern France. Cities voted for the right, while rural areas were left-wing strongholds.

Hashemite, could the same reasons could explain Northern Ontario?

I just noticed this now... that guy must have some sort of program. The maps aren't that clear, but he sure has us beat. *sigh*. He's got pretty much the whole country covered by now.

Clear maps are better, so, let's continue.

I was about to say exactly this.

It's not as uncommon as one might think; it's the case in Sweden (the rural north votes for the left, whereas Stockholm votes for the right) and in many third world countries (for instance, Bangladesh). One might surmise that the rural electorate is more volatile than the urban one, because it is more homogeneous.

Yes, let's continue.  My site will be more than just poll maps anyways ;)

But I do wonder who this Krago guy is. I've seen his maps before, but I've never met him or heard of him. Obviously he's an NDPer. 

Regarding this issue of whether rural areas ever vote left while cities vote right as may be the case in northern Ontario. There are some other examples in the first world (this is already common in Latin America) up until the 1980s in Saskatchewan the CCF/NDP tended to win the rural areas and to do less well in Regina and Saskatoon. But northern Ontario is a whole different situation. First the"cities" are really not very big at all (I.e. Sudbury and Thunder Bay barely have over 100,000 people) and second of all when we talk about "rural" northern Ontario we are not talking about typical rural with lots of farms and quaint villages. We are talking about resource ext ration based communities full of miners, foresters etc...many of who are unionized, plus lots of First Nations.

Well, the 40% NDP areas in Témiscamingue are farmland, while the rest isn't farmland. It is forestry/tourism/places for having cottages.

And if I remember well, doesn't Kirking (sp?) Lake is a NDP stronghold? It was clearly not farmland, when I went there years ago because my grandfather was hospitalised there? It seemed an industrial town?

But, that doesn't solve the question. Val-d'Or and Rouyn-Noranda are also mining and industrial cities. Clearly not farmland. (If someone ever went to Rouyn-Noranda, it would see than it is a ridiculous idea, it is impossible to have a farm there, the city in build on rock, not earth. Terrifying during thunderstorms, noise in awful.)

Edit: I forgot than there is a lot of public servants in Rouyn-Noranda.

It can't be too hard to automatically generate maps - all you need is to input the votes as values in a GIS and command it to colour a precinct depending on which value is the highest.

But, given there's already a map of Metro Vancouver available, would anyone want a map of Vancouver Island or the Fraser Valley first? It will definitely be easier to make.

I'm sure there'll be one on rabble soon :/

But yeah, I think we all prefer our style maps. They have poll boundaries and not giant fat riding boundaries.

[/quote]

I just noticed this now... that guy must have some sort of program. The maps aren't that clear, but he sure has us beat. *sigh*. He's got pretty much the whole country covered by now.
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The maps are in a PDF format, and you can zoom in for more detail.
The only problem I have is that borders for the Federal Districts are too thick.

Yeah I know... but, they're just not the same.

I'm almost done my national map. Should be done tomorrow.

Any requests?

I'd be interested in London... more London North Centre, obviously, but generally London (and perhaps the relevant bits of Elgin - Middlesex - London, as well?).

Yes. Can I use them for my blog? :D

Geez, I sound like a broken record.

That quebec riding the NDP won on recount*

Weird thing I just noticed:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calgary_Northeast

How the hell did the Liberals get their best result since 1993??!! Won a fair number of polls - all in new suburban areas!

I think northeast is the closest thing there in Calgary to a downscale heavily suburban immigrant riding - sort of like Scarborough-Rouge River or Bramalea Gore-Malton or parts of Surrey. When the day comes that people in calgary stop being so "tribal" in their voting patterns - it could be a target for a non-Tory candidate.

London:
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Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup:
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Would a map of the BC Lower Mainland be possible?

HELL NO!

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Interesting how the NDP support dried up past a point in that Quebec riding.

I'm wondering if, when you are done, we could get a zoomed-out overview of that entire "blob" that the Conservatives won.

Guelph

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Guelph is not as much fun as it used to be.

Calgary is becoming more and more Liberal. We are only 2 or 3 elections away before the Liberals win a seat here, and, are then able to hold on to it.

Calgary is becoming more left wing. Look who their mayor is.

Two or three elections from now - the Liberal party of Canada may not even exist anymore and the NDP might be the ones trying to make Calgary Northeast into the next Scarborough-Rouge River!

BTW: The London map makes it look like almost any change in boundaries in London is likely to create a second NDP target seat.

A more fun one now.

Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe
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Explanations from anyone who knows the place would be much appreciated.

I lived outside Moncton for a year.

The red bit in the bottom right corner is Dieppe, the french part of the city. The city itself is a bit Quebecish. The border is at the top of the long red bar. NDP support in this area would be partly local but could also partly be a carry-over from their good showing among francophones nationwide.

There is a river that cuts part of this riding. Note the heavy line where it turns into the thin line, and the solid blue polls south of there. This is Riverview. This small town is like something you might find in Alberta. Very right-wing, and the support for the Conservatives here is not surprising at all.

The remainder is Moncton itself. Moncton is surprisingly like Ontario in it's set up. If you were to walk around for an hour in Moncton, you'd think you were in an Ontario town.

The urban area is interesting in that the three work together. Moncton with 60K people and the other two with 20K each. Riverview is actually partly split into another riding.

The core oc the city is where you find all the red and orange, but clearly the city was won on it's newer (1980's and up) inner-burbs, which make up the blue patch on the west of the map.

Someone posted an invitation to this forum on rabble, and I think I have a new favourite website.  As I've often told my long-suffering wife: I don't smoke, drink, gamble or chase women; I just like to make election maps.

My background is in Statistics and GIS, and I have worked at Elections Ontario and for two provincial electoral boundaries commissions.  I have also helped create maps for CTV and the Toronto Star.

This is what I like to do for fun.  I've been waiting for Elections Canada to release their digital boundary files and poll-by-poll results like a kid on Christmas Eve.  In addition to the last four federal elections, I have also created colour-coded poll maps for all recent provincial elections except PEI, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Saskatchewan (and I'm working on that one).

Thanks for your comments about the maps that I've posted on rabble.  I agree that the riding boundaries need to be fixed, and I'll try making a set of non-pdf maps with poll boundaries instead of the StatsCan street network file.  Here's a sample (Toronto Centre):

(I just got an error that newbies can't post links.  You'll have to replace the ampersands with slashes, and copy and paste this into a web browser  --  https:&&sites.google.com&site&krago123&maps&TorontoCentre.png  )

Thanks for the invite, and keep cool!

https://sites.google.com/site/krago123/maps/TorontoCentre.png

Do you have the southern edge of Tri-Spa? I'd like to see how the condos voted

Here you go (previous rules apply):

https:&&sites.google.com&site&krago124&maps&TrinitySpadinaS.png

I'm pretty sure all those orange circles along the waterfront represent Olivia Chow supporters, not dedicated socialists!

Hello Krago, that was I who invited you (under an alter alias). But anyways, welcome to the forum. I've been trying to organize Canadian election maps on my blog (see my signature).  I eventually want to make a Canadian version of this site.

Do you have a website of some sort?

You're incredibly lucky to have worked for Elections Ontario and to have helped with CTV and the Star. That's the kind of thing I would to do someday.

Anyways, welcome. Your maps are excellent. I thought we had the world beat with getting our election maps out, but we have a little competition. :)

Anyways, I hope you post some of your analysis, I think we can all learn something from what you know.

Oh, I guess this is your site: https://sites.google.com/site/krago123/ :P

Very nice! I shall add a link from my blog.

Sorry, Hatman, but the 'website' is actually just a File Cabinet that I use to store my maps so I can link to them on the web.  I didn't realize that anyone could access them!

Once I get a 'real' website going, I'll definitely send you the link.  Thanks.

G'day mate! Welcome to the Forum!

Your maps are excellent! Reading what you've posted there as an introduction to yourself, I can see you'll feel right at home here!

Oh ok. I noticed you had some Manitoba provincial maps in there. Do you have the whole province? I'd like to see how some of the new ridings had voted.

Good to see you here, Krago. You don't need to replace any slashes with ampersands: all you need to do is remove the http:// protocol and the link is deemed invalid.

sites.google.com/site/krago124/maps/TrinitySpadinaS.png

The best part is that the link will work on its own in most browsers!


I am working on a slightly different version of the Lower Mainland map. Instead of a map of the poll winners, I'm tracking party swing from the 2008 election to this one. Below is an early draft that includes most of the City of Vancouver; versions for other parties are available in my gallery.

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Very good stuff, Foucaulf, but is there a reason why you didn't include Vancouver Kingsway?

The Conservative map is interesting, I wonder what's with the pink/red areas in Vancouver Centre?

I was tired of pasting stats! Eventually I'll upload a map with at least every riding north of Surrey and east of Maple Ridge, but I wanted to get a preliminary reaction.

Interestingly enough, the Tories weren't swept out of the West End like the Liberals. The reddest parts include Granville Island, Mount Pleasant and the periphery of the Downtown Eastside. The entire area around False Creek has shifted away - maybe a demographic change? On the other hand, Yaletown and Gastown is moving with the Tories. Not that surprising given that both neighbourhoods is going through a new burst of high-rise developments.

Considering how many condos there are in Vancouver Centre, I'm surprised that the NDP manages to even do reasonably well.

It really gives you some perspective when you see polls in downtown areas of Canadian cities that vote for the Conservative party and compare that to similar places in America. Seattle never has any precincts voting for the Republicans, nor do most other cities.... of course we don't have the crazy vote splitting that exists in Canada.

I wonder if this is because Canada is just more urban so conservative people are more likely to live in central urban areas, or if its purely because Canada's political system is so different from the US. I'm sure it's mostly the second cause, because Canada's politics are so much more related to income than in America. It seems like the NDP will have a difficult time winning old Liberal territory in some of these areas because it is so dependent on a lower income base (like North York, Peel, Vancouver, Calgary)

If the Democrats were split into 2 parties, you would then see the GOP winning more urban precincts. I'm sure Seattle has condos... those people tend to not be socialists.

Here is a map of Winnipeg showing the new riding boundaries overlaid on the poll-by-poll results from the 2007 provincial election: sites.google.com/site/krago124/maps/Winnipeg2007.png

Are there any other areas you're interested in?

And if today's Republicans were like the more moderate Republicans of half a century ago, they'd probably have a foothold in said condos...

Everywhere, obviously.

Hey, welcome to the forum. I was wondering if you could get some maps for Ahuntsic, Bourassa, Honore-Mercier, Richmond-Arthabaska, Bas Richelieu-etc and Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis etc. Thanks!

I've no idea who you are but that sounds very very promising. And we'll fix the part about the drinking yet. Welcome! :D

Here's the first batch:

sites.google.com/site/krago124/maps/Ahuntsic_FED2011PD_Map.png
sites.google.com/site/krago124/maps/Bourassa_FED2011PD_Map.png
sites.google.com/site/krago124/maps/HonoreMercier_FED2011PD_Map.png

with bonus maps at no extra cost!

I take it the southern end of Ahuntsic is anglo?

You wouldn't happen to have the transposition of votes, would you?

When I get home from Europe, I will do all the municipality by municipality as well as county divisions.  I could take a while but I will get working on it and post them as they are ready.  Using the spreadsheets can be quite useful.  Also I can help on the poll by poll maps if anyone can show me how to do them. 

Also wonder why the Liberals did so well amongst university students?  Guelph and Kingston both went Liberal, the few Liberal polls in London were near UWO and it looks like in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale the only Liberal polls were around McMaster.  I would have thought that students are more likely to go NDP than Liberal especially considering the NDP had a better chance of defeating the Tories than the Liberals.  Any ideas on why this happened?  Did the Liberal education passport have any impact?

Depends on the university. I guess at UGuelph and at Queen's, the students thought that the Liberals had a better chance of winning.

...and they had.

And York, UofT, UofWindsor, UofOttawa all went NDP (i believe?)... so i think it all is dependent on who on the "left" who can defeat a tory.

Or to defeat the Liberal, as some of those cases were. Carleton (my alma matter) also went NDP

And here's batch number two:

sites.google.com/site/krago124/maps/BasRichelieu_FED2011PD_Map.png
sites.google.com/site/krago124/maps/Richmond_FED2011PD_Map.png
sites.google.com/site/krago124/maps/Gaspesie_FED2011PD_Map.png

How about some urban/rural ridings...

Peterborough
Chatham-Kent-Essex
Prince Edward-Hastings (i believe thats belleville)
Brant

Oh and Kingston... curious about that one

Kingston would be very very interesting.

He has some of Brant here: https://7686778538406164426-a-1802744773732722657-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/krago123/maps/HamiltonBB_Fed2011PD_Map.pdf?attachauth=ANoY7cokxYc3KN757rcPEYbu3WTd1hCKQj9TPjoLWTFXrp1G6h182T4-89-Qz95kWIIHY1SyL-X0-BkGFnH09ntUkYXmWMEDK_F30XgLkOhvk6tqeV4uBqK0DyoAOJCZeLg_d08HYRb399C-EszBydRWzKWMgJnANcoAvQ7gziO-4O5bhcmeJ0kMI2X7BNg3Dc8EXCKa-KDJTZ06Eq9hFxMjj8pGMiE5ig%3D%3D&attredirects=0

  I find these maps not very clear, so we should still work on our separate ones especially in the mixed urban-rural ridings where you can barely see the urban parts

Krago, adding tags like below:
will allow you to put images in posts.

I think there is some bizarre rule that you need so and so many posts to do that, Teddy. Because, you see, he's a brand new account so he's probably a spambot.

No, allophone. That dividing line is St. Laurent Blvd, the historical division between French and English/allophone. It's extremely marked in Papineau, where the area south of St. Laurent is very allophone. NDP did poorer with Anglos and allophones in Quebec.

I dont know why the bother with riding spanning the divide. Doesn't make any sense.

I thought all of Ahuntsic was pretty much allophone. :P
That road being Boulevard Saint Laurent makes sense to me.

Ahuntsic is historically an old franco middle-class area. The riding as a whole is still 56% Franco and 26% non-white.

Here is Kingston and the Islands:

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The rest will have to wait until I get back from the cottage.

Have a great weekend and keep cool!

Great stuff! Can I use your maps on my blog?

What's the dipper area in Kingston like? Also, what's the town just outside the riding to the west?

That town is Amherstview. I'm surprised it's not more Tory, as that area is Loyalist country (it's literally in Loyalist Twp).

Looking back at the Lower Mainland map, it seems that there were several Green polls around Downtown Vancouver. What sort of candidate did the Greens have?

The former leader of the BC Green Party.

This thread.

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I discovered a problem with the website that hosts all of my maps - it has no security!  So I will have to shut it down until I get it fixed early next week.

My apologies to everyone.  Have a good weekend.

Ahh, that's what happened.

my offer via PM still stands as that'd allow you more security.

If that was the case do you think Ahuntsic would ever have elected a BQ MP in the first place. The Bloc Quebecois literally gets ZERO votes among non-francophones.

Though Amherstview also has a bit of a working-class exurb thing going, which makes it the most naturally un-Tory part of its seat (Lanark et al)--and generally speaking, Loyalist country has been more Progressive Conservative, i.e. more germane to Chretien-Martin Liberalism in recent times...

Yah, not really. Though this may be a definitional issue. Quebec gets very different immigration than the rest of Canada, some of these people speak French better than English, some of these peoples' descendants - such as the Bloc MP here - maybe count as Francophone to Canadian political observers? And anyways, some of these groups are much more open to voting for the Bloc than others. I don't really know where to draw the lines and how we define the terms here.

Fredericton poll-by-poll results Google-Maps-ified:

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/freddy-test.html

1 down, 307 to go. :)

What about the rest of the riding?  Or did the Tories win every poll outside Fredericton?

The Tories did win every poll outside Fredericton, but you can zoom out and drag around to see them anyway.

Also, if I hadn't made it clear, you can click on any poll and the results will pop up.

I am planning on doing more ridings, eventually the whole country, but I'm playing around with some settings in my GIS program and Google Earth first to make it as efficient and less-bandwidth-hogging as possible.

I already directly was responsible for brining krago's website down by pointing the same out to him as I'm about to, to you; but you do realize that there is a security hole in your results, right?

Poll-by-poll maps for all of Atlantic Canada are now up....

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/

Obviously it's still very much a work in progress, but here's a taste for now.

Exceptional Work!

Labrador is interesting. Looks like the NDP could win Labrador West in the provincial election :)

This is really good stuff. I think the way you've done it will make all of our live's easier.

I've been sneaking peaks at this for the past few days already :P

What's up with the Green win in Sydney?

Well, they did hold it before, but when the MHA in question is now in jail for corruption, I'm not sure how much of a sign that is. :)

Looks like another transposed-number situation. Can't imagine the Greens actually getting 50 votes and the NDP only 3.

Well, it was the 2nd best NDP riding in the 2007 election, so it's certainly one to watch.

I also checked out your Charlottetown map. Very interesting. Again, could mean something in the provincial election- but probably not. (NDP won the Downtown part of the city)

Hmm, that poll in Sydney had me thinking. We should try and compile all the polling irregularities we can find. From the look of that % change, it is clear that the NDP and the Greens were swapped.

The "Downtown" area has always been somewhat NDP friendly. It's convincing voters that voting NDP is not a wasted ballot that's not so easy.

Unless "Sydney" and "Sidney" got confused (cf. Vanc Island)

Hearing all kinds of excitment about the next nfld election, the NDP replacing the Liberals! its too early but i'm hearing pickups in St. Johns... maybe Lab W.

And i think the last PEI election the then leader ran in the DT riding of Charlottetown, and that was the best result for the party that election (not saying much when the NPD polled under 2%

Well, in the last provincial poll (March) NDP was having 11%. 62% for the Liberals, 25% for PC and 2% for the Greens.

Oops: Forgot to quote, that is PEI poll.

Due Date for Quebec?

The poll above is for PEI.
Quebec has no fixed elections law, so, the election is at the will of Jean Charest.

Tommy, I've been working on Newfoundland maps and wondering a bit of the same - I think 14 seats in St John's and surrounds, all represented federally by the NDP. Of course, most are provincially PC >75%, but there's likely potential there.

Regarding PEI, the NDP didn't run in half the seats, which deflates their figures somewhat. I have a spreadsheet with the votes (and votes by poll) on my computer. I could give you their vote just in seats where they ran in about twenty minutes. Won't be substantially higher - they didn't win any seats - but will be higher nonetheless.

No

(The 506, what is your) Due Date for (the) Quebec (poll maps being finished)

The NDP has run island-wide in the past, and PEI does have poll-by-poll records (and the whole island has whut like 300 polls?) so transferring old elections to current would not be all that hard to do.

I've only done the last election results, and it's already all available on the website, I've merely put it into a spreadsheet for ease of use.

There are 27 ridings, the fewest polls in a riding are 8 (I think riding #24) and the most polls in a riding are 8, but most seem to have 10-12, so yeah, not many polls. I'm part-way through a poll-by-poll map of PEI in Paint, but its completion is lower on my priorities than my Newfoundland map (which is not far off now).

The NDP ran in 15 of the 27 ridings last election, receiving 1,597 of the 45,952 votes cast in those ridings, or 3.48%. There were three ridings in which the NDP received more than 5% of the vote:

Charlottetown - Victoria Park (7.22%)
Kelly's Cross - Cumberland (5.37%)
Summerside - Wilmot (6.00%)

As someone who ran for the PEI NDP and sat on the executive, I can assure you that beyond slight increases in vote in "downtown and central" Charlottetown and Summerside, and the left-over vote bump in the O'Leary riding from Dr. Herb, that any other vote increases or decreases can be assigned to the local candidate.

They'll be ready when they're ready.

Great thread to return to after a little while away from the forum (even though I seemed to have missed krago's maps). That Toronto map is really really interesting.

Perhaps the most surprising thing so far is the sharpness of the line between Vancouver South and Kingsway, which isn't that sharp of a divide either ethnically or economically, and doesn't have a straightforward strategic explanation. Just evidence of the impact of whether a party bothers to really contest a riding with a local GOTV effort, I guess.

Left wing people vote Liberal in Vancouver South. Provincially, the area is Liberal as well. You can see the mayoral race here: http://bc2009.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/2008-vanmunielections-2009-boundaries.gif which shows more of a gradual shift in the right vs left vote. (i'm in the process of making my own version of that map for my blog, among the many projects I have on the go)

Krago has not been seen since a moderator edited a black man's penis into someone's sig. I'm not sure he'll ever be back.

Did he comment on that?

I've noticed he's posted some on rabble again.

Defeated Liberal incumbent... next time around, things may be different.

Next Federal if the NDP runs Meena Wong again, and the liberals don't have any type of good candidate (not all that likely) i would see this as competative again but still leaning conservative. Van-Fraserview though i think is more in play (provincial riding) If Yiu wins the nomination i think he might have this one... many say he was robbed after all the controversy around Heed, Fraserview and Fairview are targets no matter who the candidates are.

I have my links fixed.  I would love to show you, but this is only my tenth post.

I have my links fixed.  I would love to show you, but this is only my eleventh post.

I have my links fixed.  I would love to show you, but this is only my twelfth post.

I have my links fixed.  I would love to show you, but this is only my thirteenth post.

I have my links fixed.  I would love to show you, but this is only my fourteenth post.

I have my links fixed.  I would love to show you, but this is only my fifteenth post.

I have my links fixed.  I would love to show you, but this is only my sixteenth post.

I have my links fixed.  I would love to show you, but this is only my seventeenth post.

I have my links fixed.  I would love to show you, but this is only my eighteenth post.

I have my links fixed.  I would love to show you, but this is only my nineteenth post.

I have my links fixed.  I would love to show you, but this is only my twentieth post.

What a great day!  I have finally become a man in the eyes of the Atlas Forum administrators.  You could call it my 'map mitzvah'.

As promised, here are the links to my non-pdf poll maps:

Ahuntsic & Papineau
https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B9sBXp66G86xNDQ1M2I2MWQtMzIyZS00MzlmLTkxOTMtNzMzNjY2ZGJiNmM5&hl=en_US

Bas-Richelieu--Nicolet--Bécancour
https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B9sBXp66G86xMDZiMjk5MGEtODIwNi00YTE5LTkyMmYtZmU5ODg2Y2E4MWEy&hl=en_US

Bourassa & Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel
https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B9sBXp66G86xYjM2NjRjZjAtNDZiZC00MWRjLTljZDQtNzA5YTdlMzRiMmQ2&hl=en_US

Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia & Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine
https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B9sBXp66G86xNDY1NTgyMjMtODYzMi00ODdmLWFhMDktNDBkNjE5NTNiMGU5&hl=en_US

Honoré-Mercier & La Pointe-de-l'Île
https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B9sBXp66G86xMTExMDI5ODUtNWQzZC00MjI5LThiNzUtN2UxZGM1NDk4M2Y3&hl=en_US

Kingston and the Islands
https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B9sBXp66G86xNDAzMmZmOWItOTAzYS00NzFjLTk5OTEtY2I3OWUyZGIyMzM1&hl=en_US

Peterborough
https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B9sBXp66G86xOGI1ODg1MGEtNDQ5NS00ODEzLTg2NzQtMTY1ZmQ5N2M1MTdi&hl=en_US

Richmond--Arthabaska
https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B9sBXp66G86xN2E5MTM1YzItMmU5Yi00NGU1LWIwZDEtZmJhZmFmZGI4YzRj&hl=en_US

Windsor West, Windsor--Tecumseh & Essex
https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B9sBXp66G86xYTk2YmYyZTItMDI0NS00YmQ3LTljYTktMjdiY2IxNzNmZDk4&hl=en_US

Good night and mazel tov!

That is some excellent work! Well done!

Welcome back, Krago. Some great stuff there. I can definitely gerrymander a third NDP riding into Essex :D Oh, and the Gaspesie riding is missing the Magdalen Islands.

Thank god, I was afraid we had lost you. The toxic BS usually stays away from this part of the forum, so as long as you stick to here you'll be fine!

Welcome back!
I love whats happeneing in Peterborough... and in general is some smaller cities (Lethbridge, Brantford, wonder what Chatham looks like another NDP mayor there) the Liberals were almost shut out, i went to school there and (one of the Trent polls went NDP) and so did most of the "city" as well as a few polls out in Smith-Ennismore-Lakefield (wrong order maybe) but the Reeve is a Dipper there (Mary Smith), with redistribution the riding will likely lose some rural areas but not much since its just over the 100000 mark.

Quebec is now done.

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/

FYI:
* I have to process each province individually since the GIS file for the whole country is just too big for my script to handle. Once that's done, I have to create the HTML page for each riding manually, and that takes a while. So Ontario probably won't be up til early next week.
* There were a couple ridings (Manicouagan, Megantic-L'Erable and Abitibi-Temiscamingue come to mind) where the Google maps files were too big to be displayed, so I had to simplify them a bit. Unfortunately, some accuracy was lost.
* I'm going to get around to adding the point polls once I finish this first.

With all that in mind....enjoy!

Good stuff! Keep em coming.

http://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?authuser=0&vps=2&hl=en&ie=UTF8&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004a91deb0f14e6216c2

"Strongholds" of non-NDP support in Quebec.

I am currently working on getting the data ready and will start making the maps after.  I have currently done all the ridings up to letter G and hope to have them done over the next few weeks.  Then I will start publishing some of the maps for municipalities and counties.  I will also for the fun of it do a red state vs. blue state style one with red for counties and municipalities where the Cons + CHP + independent Conservative candidates (James Ford, Helena Guergis, and Andre Arthur) exceeded 50% and blue for everything else.

Don't forget the Libertarians.

or the PCP and UP for that matter

Although Libertarians are on the right, the US also has them, so I will just factor them out although I don't think they got enough votes to really impact any area.  As for PC Party and United Party, they are more centrist than right wing.  The PC Party is really the Red Tory wing from the old Progressive Conservatives who would be on the same spot if not slightly to the left of the federal Liberals and in the US definitely more in line with the Democrats than Republicans.  Although, it is quite possible than many who voted PC Party did so by mistake and actually intended to vote Conservatives.  I guess I can add those three although I doubt it will change much considering how few votes they got.

It's not unprecedented in Europe (or Hazleton PA) for working-class urban whites who live in neighbourhoods with a lot of immigrant "outsiders" to be more attached to nationalist politics than those in more homogeneous areas. The map of Montreal seems to be consistent with this.

Well, do you consider than Anglophones are "immigrant outsiders" in your theory?

We have more than a dozen parties, if you are doing left VS right, and there are only 3 right-wing parties and 2 in the middle; I'd add the 2 in the middle to the right wing to try to balance it out :P




EDIT
another idea is to divide into 3 groups.

Left:
AAEVP
BQ
CAP
COM
FPNP
MJP
MLP
NDP
PRT
RNO

Centre:
GRN
LIB
PCP
UP

Right:
CHP
CPC
LBTR
WBP

And do a Right VS Centre&Left
then a Right&Centre VS Left

There's no point in making maps of 'support' for micro parties from fptp elections.

If that's what is being considered then I think I misunderstood his post.

I am now finished the Os so still have the Ps to Zs.  I can confirm the NDP won the old city of Ottawa pre-amalgmation although much like the 416 and Vancouver proper it was a tight three way race.  The Tories off course took Ottawa as a whole when you include the amalgamated areas.  Hamilton though still went NDP even after amalgmation although a lot closer whereas in the old city they won by 20 points while the Tories won by 25 points in the amalgmated parts of Hamilton.  In some ways it is like many counties in the US where the city proper goes Democrat but the suburban sections go Republican or at least are more evenly split rather than heavily tilted towards the Democrats.  Alleghney County, Wayne County, Cuyahoga County, Cook County, Milwaukee County, Hennepin County, Los Angeles County, San Diego County, and King County all follow this to some degree although Obama did win the suburban sections in many of those, but they were a lot closer and many of those will go Republican win they win nationally.

Remember when I promised maps of the Lower Mainland based on party swing? You probably shouldn't, but I made them anyway.

Here is part 1, including all of Metro Vancouver north of the Fraser except for Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge. I'm only showing the Tories' swing map here, but the rest are available on my profile.

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Oh my goodness! That is awesome work!

Following a request I received: Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.

Link to the 2008 map: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2545_08_08_09_8_00_09.png (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2545_08_08_09_8_00_09.png)

2011 map:
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(as usual, the normal size version is avaliable in the gallery or by right click, copy the addressof the picture and paste it in the address field.)

So, patterns are very strange. Conservatives gained many Liberal precincts, but Liberals also gained a couple of Conservative precincts. There is more 30% results than in 2008 because NDP was stronger in 2011. Swing was very not uniform.

Many precincts had almost no change about the Conservative vote share,but there was a Liberal to NDP movement. The liberal candidate came from the Casselman area.

New precincts were roughly draw, to save time.

Ontario maps are now ready...

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/index.html

Enjoy!

SSM is screwy

Indeed, I don't think than Conservatives won the city, Liberals the rural areas and NDP nothing.

Ooops...got Liberals and NDP reversed. I'll fix it.

You are doing great work there! It's really interesting to see some of these ridings and how they broke down. I was just looking at Central Nova... it's interesting that the polls to report early in the night these past couple of elections have both been strongly NDP, whereas the majority of polls are Conservative.

HNNG <3

My neighbourhood was 46 NDP - 28 CON - 23 LIB. Virtually all Liberal support went Conservative, what a shock. Seems to be the general theme in Timmins-James Bay, and probably a load of other Ontario ridings too.

Great job on the maps.  One quick question.  Did any party win every poll in any riding and which ones.  I know the Tories won every poll last time around in Durham and Carleton-Mississippi Mills, but it looks like not in those ridings this time around, but that they swept other ones.  This is for Ontario only.

oooh. Interesting that the Liberals won Deep River, and not Clouthier. Clouthier won only three polls. It also looks like Guergis didn't win any polls.

Sorry, it's not Ontario.

Crowfoot in Alberta. (Conservative got aleast 50% of the VALID vote in every poll)

All but 3 polls (1 Regular, and 2 Special Polls) had every poll at 60%
50 Polls were at least 90%
Sunnynook Poll  voted 96% Conservative (101 Votes)

Nice. Can't wait for the west... :D

Yukon 2011.

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Sorry for the bad quality of Yukon map, the shape in the file of Geogratis was quite inclined. Putting it upside down cut quality. The round point in SE Yukon represented a very small precinct which wasn't visible from that wide view.

So, the riding is very divided. Some precincts were won barely won 30%.
So, short comment.

Liberal and Conservative support is quite visible on the map.
NDP was strong outside Whitehorse, but performed very bad inside the city.
Green vote is roughly "How far are you of Whitehorse?". The further, the weaker the Green vote is.

Still working on the maps, but a few interesting things I have found in some ridings.  In Richmond-Arthabaska, the Tories won Asbestos so I wonder if their controversial position of supporting exports of asbestos and not ratifying the Rotterdam Convention helped in this town, although I believe the Conservative candidate who is the brother of former MP Andre Bachand also came from this town.  In Saint-Maurice-Champlain, the NDP won Herouxville, despite the fact their immigration and multicultural policies are about as far away as you can get from the town's position.  This was the infamous town for its policies on immigrants despite having none.  Also had election day polls only been used and there had been no advanced polls, the NDP would have won Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar meaning PEI would be the only province they would have been shut out of.

Well, if I remember well, the mayor and the municipal councillor who launched that said than they did it to launch a public debate on immigration and multiculturalism and than they didn't really believed in what they done.

By the way, I think than both retired last municipal elections.

Also, the xenophobia in Quebec is a left wing xenophobia, much like the type found in the Netherlands. You know, "Muslims are anti-women, anti-gay, etc, therefore they should eb banned" kind of thing.

In some ways Quebec strikes me as more European than North American in many of their attitudes.  It is true on immigration and multiculturalism they are certainly more conservative than English Canada in terms of more Quebecers favour assimilation than elsewhere and they are more likely to favour lower levels of immigration.  There are also other issues where they are more to the right depending on how you look at it.  Quebecers are more likely to support free trade and tend to be more supportive of laxer foreign ownership rules (asides from culture) than English Canadians.  Mind you do the language and cultural differences, they are probably less worried about Americanization than English Canadians where the differences are much smaller.  On health care, Quebecers don't seem to object to a parallel private system as strongly as English Canadians.  After all, there are many private clinics where one can pay for faster service in Quebec, some in BC and even fewer in Alberta, while practically none in Ontario.  In most European countries you have a parallel private health system.  Although this is less of right vs. left, they tend to have far laxer alcohol laws.  In Quebec you can buy beer and wine in grocery stores unlike most provinces in English Canada.  Some may say this is more left leaning, but I should note the NDP in most English Canadian provinces tend to be the strongest opponents of allowing alcohol sales in grocery stores, gas stations, and convenience stores, although I suspect much of that has to do with the fact they don't want to undermine the unions at the government run liquor stores.  The point is the differences between Quebec and English Canada are not totaly a simple left vs. right, although on some issues such as the environment, attitude towards public sector unions, military intervention overseas, abortion and same sex marriage, Quebecers are definitely more left leaning.

the NDP is against relaxing liquour rules? This is quite disappointing, but also the first I heard of it.

  Unfortunately yes.  At least you can go across the river and pick up a six pack or a bottle of wine at any depanneur or even Costco has go prices and selection.  Unfortunately here in Toronto we are stuck with the Beer Store and LCBO. 

Scarborough went Liberal while the NDP won East York, although both were three way races.  So far of the municipalities I have done, Guelph, Kingston, Casselman, and North Bay are the only Liberal wins.  Of the former municipalities of Ottawa, the NDP won Ottawa and Vanier, Liberals Rockcliffe Park, while the Tories won every other one, although they only got over 50% (actually 60% in all these too) in Goulbourn, Osgoode, Rideau, and West Carleton i.e. the largely rural municipalities.  In the former municipality of Hamilton, the NDP won Hamilton, while the Tories got a plurality in Stoney Creek and Dundas and a majority in Ancaster, Glanbrook, and Flamborough.  Actually so far, the Tories have gotten above 40% in almost every municipality outside of Toronto, with only Casselman, Kingston (Frontenac Islands if you don't round up), and Hamilton.  I haven't yet gotten to Windsor which I am sure the NDP won by a fairly sizeable margin. 

Okay here is New Brunswick by county.  I made three maps here.  The first is strictly by winner.  Restigouche County and Westmoreland County were three way races which the Tories won but only in the low 30s

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This is by percentage.  The Liberals were in the 30s in Kent County, NDP in 60s in Gloucester County, Tories in 30s in Restigouche County and Westmoreland County, 40s in York County, Madawaska County and Saint John County (all above 47% I should add), 68% in Carleton County, while in the 50s in all other counties

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Here is New Brunswick US style with the red counties being Tories over 50% and the blue being Tories under 50%

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Deep River went Liberal too, I think.

Also very interesting that Ottawa went NDP. I think that's a first in history. We've only had one NDP mayor, and probably would have had a 2nd if it weren't for amalgamation.

I would love to see a ward breakdown.

I think I'll wait for you to do all the provinces before I make a national map... but I'd love to see results by municipality in NB (perhaps by parish as well).

I'm not mileslunn, but I can try to do that if you want.
A map (if that even possible? good question) or a list?

If a list is provided, I would make a map.

The Liberals did win Deep River as well.  One of the few municipalities they won.  In fact the Tories got over 50% in the vast majority of municipalities despite averaging 44% province wide.  This time around they also did crack the 70% mark in a few, but not many, but none over 75% so far.  As for the NDP, I think they got over 60% in some in Northern Ontario, but none in Southern Ontario.

From the looks of it, parishes are very possible, municipalities could be a lot harder (precincts borders don't follow them at some places.)

Well, that is supposing than I understand well.
Parishes are outdated but sane divisions used to draw precincts.
Municipalities/LSD are the current divisions, but precincts sometimes don't follow them.

Parishes are still used by Stats Can and Elections Canada.

The NDP would have won Westmount-Ville Marie if you took only election day polls, which might explain why Marc Garneau conceded defeat on election night only to retract it later as usually the advanced polls are the last to come in.  Also it was Westmount that saved him as the NDP came in third in Westmount behind the Tories.  I should note on the Island of Montreal, the Liberals came in third in the old city of Montreal prior to amalgamation but second when you include the amalgamated cities.  The NDP off course won both Montreal pre and post amalgamation.  Also in Southern Ontario, the NDP won Thorold, Welland, and Port Colborne (although the Tories took the St. Catharines portion of Welland in addition to Wainfleet).  It seems in those three cities the NDP won most of the polls in the built up areas while the Tories in the rural sections.  Is it due to the heavy unionization why those three cities are more NDP than the rest of the Niagara region.  And how come St. Catharines goes Tory or Liberal in the past, but never NDP? 

I think that was rather obvious.


Nice to see the NDP pick up Port Colborne, a city the Liberals won last time. I suppose that's the only NDP pick up in terms of municipalities in all of southern Ontario.

I wonder if the NDP might have won over a few towns in Essex given how much their vote increased in that riding?

Haven't got to Tecumseh and Windsor yet, but in terms of the ridings in Essex, no the Tories won every single municipality.  While in Kingsville they got over 50%, all the others were between 45-50%.  In fact the NDP and Tory support was fairly evenly distributed in Essex.  It is however likely the NDP won some of the "towns" but not any of the municipalities when you consider each municipality is a mixture of towns and countryside and the Tories tend to win pretty big in the countryside and towns under 500.

The Liberals won the municipality of Whistler in British Columbia but with only 27%.  It was a four way split, Lib 27%, NDP 26%, Con 26%, and GRN 17%.  I know in the US most ski resorts vote Democrat even if in solidly Republican states such as Jackson in Wyoming or Sun Valley in Idaho.  At the same time most residents are quite wealthy and liberal thus the dilemma which is why I think you got the four way split you did.  They like the NDP's progressive social policies, but don't like the idea of higher taxes for the rich, while they may like the Conservative tax cuts, but find many of their social policies quite regressive. 

Ah, but why assume that everyone in a given place has a similar set of views and values? Especially in a place like that.

I will do a map later, but for Nova Scotia, the Liberals won all four Cape Breton Island counties, but asides from that, they only won Hants County, while the NDP only won Halifax County.  The Tories took all the remaining counties on Mainland Nova Scotia, although they only cracked the 50% mark in Pictou County and Cumberland County (albeit if you round off they also got over 50% in Yarmouth County).  Each party seems to have its turf, otherwise Liberals in Cape Breton Island, Tories in Rural Mainland Nova Scotia, and NDP in the Metro Halifax area.

  If you are referring to Whistler, I used to have a cabin there as a kid.  I am originally from British Columbia, so I do have some idea of the demographics there, mind you there are lot of weekend only residents as well as you have many seasonal residents who only live there part of the year rather than year round, thus the time of year the election is held might have some impact too.

In the Lower Mainland, the Liberals won two municipalities (University Endowment Lands and Bowen Island).  Bowen Island despite its rural nature is rather left leaning.  Sort of like Bainbridge Island is to Seattle in some ways.  The NDP won Vancouver, Burnaby, and New Westminster, while every other municipality went Conservative in the GVRD.

Geezus. FTR, I lived there for 2 months during the Olympics. Beautiful town. I don't think I met many of the locals, but they must be quite left wing, not wanting a Tim Hortons there and all.  The town is full of Aussies and Kiwis, but they can't vote.

Anyways, as for Essex, it appears the NDP won the former towns of Essex, and Belle River.

The NDP did win Tecumseh, although not by a whole lot, so I suspect imcumbency probably had some impact in Essex County as the demographics of Tecumseh I don't think are all that much more favourable to the NDP than some of the other Essex municipalities.  Windsor off course went NDP in a landslide, in fact using the present municipalities, I believe it was the only municipality in Southern Ontario where they cracked the 50% mark.  The Liberals on the other hand using the current municipalities failed to crack the 40% mark in any if I am not mistaken, although I have to double check.

506, I demand you make more maps, on the grounds that I have no life, and thus, nothing else to look forward too :(

When it comes to strictly e-day, how many seats "voted differently", besides Sask-RB and West-VM?


When it comes to St Kitts at large, it never had the collective reflected glory of the Swart/Kormos provincial NDP powerhouse machine, the way that Thorold and Welland and now Port Colborne has.  And the parts within Welland riding also happen to encompass some of St Kitts' toniest neighbourhoods, thus nullifying NDP reach except in a few spillover spots.  Otherwise, the most "NDP-natural" zone in St Catharines actually happens to be the south-of-the-QEW part of St Catharines riding, encompassing downtown as well as GM--but the riding at large is cancelled out by a historical lack of a strong, provincially/federally electable machine a la Welland; thus a lot of that vote's defaulted Liberal (notably Jim Bradley provincially) and elsewhere.  (North of the QEW, it's mostly postwar-middle-class-suburban tedium that tends to be fairly solidly Lib/Tory--or just plain Tory as of the last two fed elections--though there *could* be orange-umbrella grand-coalition possibility there.)

The NDP won Ahuntsic and ironically, the Liberals won Yukon if you took e-day polls only.  Asides from those four, not sure of any others, although I might have missed a few.  I only checked the really close ridings.

I've been having, well, a life lately.

More maps coming this weekend.

Here is Nova Scotia by county.  I only did the US style and the winner as asides from the two counties the Tories got over 50% in, the winner in every county got in the 40s and no party got over 60% in any county.

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And here is the US style map with the two counties the Tories got over 50% in being shown in red.

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Why would you show Tory-majority counties in red?

Apparently because the GOP = red.

It depends of the county.
They use them for Madawaska County, but they use LDSs for Restigouche County.

I don't think so... proof?

Well, the precincts limits doesn't correspond at all to the parish limits.
Precincts: http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/13005.html (http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/13005.html)
Geographical maps: here (http://geodepot.statcan.ca/GeoSearch2006/GeoSearch2006.jsp?minx=7835322.45746497&miny=1525089.54387233&maxx=8124468.41632212&maxy=1701091.43187233&LastImage=http://geodepot.statcan.ca/Diss/Output/GeoSearch2006_f6geoimagepaz1407639201278.gif&resolution=H&lang=F&switchTab=0) (Geosearch) and http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b0/Restigouche_County_NB_-_Addington_Parish.PNG (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b0/Restigouche_County_NB_-_Addington_Parish.PNG) (Wikipedia parish map).

All was working in Madawaska, but, it is beyong strange in Restigouche

Looks like stats can uses Parishes in Restigouche to me! I just clicked on a place there and it has a (P) beside it, meaning parish.

Yes, I know, but Elections Canada didn't. Well, I can skip unclear rural areas and focus on municipalities.

EDIT: Why worrying? I'm not perfect, I'll do what I can.

Parishes and LSDs are the same thing 80% of the time.

EC (and ENB for that matter) seems to use them Whenever They Damn Well Feel Like It.

The wait is over....Manitoba and Saskatchewan are now up.

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/

Praise the lord!

Churchill River is extremely polarized. Polls in the north at 90%+ for the NDP, while in the south were 90%+ for the Tories.

  Almost like the Deep South in the US in some ways.  There you have areas that go 90%+ Republican which are usually areas that are overwhelmingly white and areas that go 90%+ Democrat which are usually overwhelmingly African-American.  Looks like this one was somewhat racially polarized being Aboriginal heavily NDP and White heavily Conservative.  Is this more a coincidence or is there a strong racial divide in this part of Saskatchewan.

506, you are awesome!

Miles - it may not necessarily be racially driven, just that like many other areas, the First Nations population votes NDP, and like in many other areas, the (white) rural areas vote Conservative. It may be demographic without being racial, if you follow my drift.

EDIT: Actually, I seem to recall (possibly Earl?) mentioning that the NDP had selected a strong candidate who was a tribal leader or something for that seat?

  Don't disagree, just pointing out the similiarities albeit the reasons are probably quite different though.

Here is Ontario by county.  The Liberals only won Nipissing District and Toronto, while the NDP dominated Northern Ontario, but only won Hamilton and Essex County in Southern Ontario.  By contrast Southern Ontario was mostly Conservative while in the North they only won Kenora District (or you could include Muskoka and Parry Sound Districts if you count them as Northern Ontario)

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Here is the US style again.  The Conservatives got in the 30s in Frontenac County, 40s in Kenora District, Ottawa, Prescott & Russell United Counties, Peel Regional Municipality, Brant County, Haldimand County (rounded up to 50% if rounded off), Wellington County, Waterloo Regional Municipality, and Middlesex County,  They only got over 60% in Lanark County, Stormont, Dundas, & Glengarry United Counties, Leeds and Grenville United Counties, and Kawartha Lakes, so many counties in the 50s.  The NDP got in the 30s in Hamilton, while they got over 50% in only in Cochrane District, Greater Sudbury, and Rainy River District.  The others they won they got in the 40s.  The Liberals failed to get above 36% in any of the counties.

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Here is Ontario by municipality.  Since this map didn't show all of Nipissing District I left it out although I will give the figures in a later post.  The NDP in Southern Ontario only won Hamilton, Thorold, Welland, Port Colborne, Tecumseh, and Windsor.  The Liberals only won Deep River, Casselman, Kingston, Toronto, and Guelph.  Only in Windsor did the NDP crack the 50% mark while the Liberals in none.  The Tories got above 30% in every municipality using the present boundaries and even pre-amalgmation, Toronto, East York, York, Ottawa, and Vanier were the only ones they failed to crack the 30% mark.  Likewise in Nipissing District, West Nipissing was the only municipality where they got under 30%.

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Not very clear in terms of colours on my machine so I will just do a colour coded based on winner and US style map.  In the case of Helena Guergis' riding, her vote + the Tories exceeded 50% in every municipality, but it did not exceed 70% in any of them.  Below is the data on winners and which bracket they were in.  I also included the Nipissing District.  I will do separate ones for Toronto, Hamilton, and Ottawa pre-amalgmation.

Tories over 70%

Oil Springs, The Archipelago, North Dundas, South Dundas

Tories in the 60s

Amaranth, East Garafraxa, East Luther-Grand Valley, Aylmer, Bayham, Malahide, Halton Hills, Carlow/Mayo, Tudor & Cashel, South Huron, Beckwith, Carleton Place, Drummond/North Elmsley, Lanark Highlands, Montague, Edwardsburgh/Cardinal , North Grenville, Addington Highlands, Georgian Bay, Osgoode, East Zorra-Tavistock, Norwich, North Perth, Brundell, Lyndoch & Raglan, North Stormont, South Stormont, Erin, Mapleton, Puslinch, East Gwilimbury, Brock, Southwold, North Frontenac, Chatsworth, Georgian Bluffs, Southgate, Bancroft, Centre Hastings, Faraday, Hastings Highlands, Madoc, Stirling-Rawdon, Wollaston, Bluewater, Central Huron, Kawartha Lakes, Enniskillen, Plympton-Wyoming, Warwick, Mississippi Mills, Smiths Falls, Tay Valley, Athens, Augusta, Elizabethtown-Kiteley, Prescott, Rideau Lakes, Westport, Adelaide-Metcalfe, Lucan-Biddulph, Middlesex Centre, North Middlesex, Thames Centre, Lincoln, West Lincoln, Blandford-Blenheim, Southwest Oxford, Tilsonburg, Zorra, McKellar, McDougall, Perry Ryerson, South River, Strong, Whitestone, Havelock-Belmont-Metheun, North Kawartha, Otonabee-South Monaghan, Greater Madawaska, Horton, McNab/Braeside, Bradford-West Gwilimbury, Innisfil, Oro-Medonte, Ramara, Severn, North Dumfries, Wellesley, Woolwich, Centre Wellington, Guelph/Eramosa, Wellington North, Georgina, King

Tories in the 50s

Brant, Arran-Elderslie, Northern Bruce Peninsula, South Bruce Peninsula, Melancthon, Mono, Orangeville, Shelburne, Scugog, Uxbridge, Whitby, Central Elgin, Dutton/Dunwich, Leamington, Central Frontenac, Grey Highlands, Hanover, West Grey, Dysart et Al, Highlands East, Minden Hills, Burlington, Milton, Mamora & Lake, Quinte West, Ashfield-Colborne-Wawanosh, Howick, Huron East, Morris-Turnberry, North Huron, Dawn-Euphemia, Lambton Shores, Petrolia, St. Clair, Perth, Brockville, Front of Yonge, Gananoque, Leeds & Thousands Islands, Merrickville-Wolford, Strathroy-Caradoc, Gravenhurst, Huntsville, Muskoka Lakes, Grimsby, Niagara on the Lake, Pelham, Wainfleet, South Algonquin, Alnwick/Haldimand, Brighton, Carling, Joly, Machar, Magnetewan, Seguin, Sundridge, Caledon, Perth East, Perth South, St. Mary’s, West Perth, Asphodel-Norwood, Cavan-Millbrook-North Monaghan, Duoro-Dummer, Galway-Cavendish-Harvey, Smith-Ennismore-Lakefield, Adamaston/Bromley, Arnprior, Bonnecherre Valley, Madawaska Valley, North Algona-Wilberforce, Renfrew, Whitewater Region, Barrie, Springwater, North Glengarry, South Glengarry, Wimot, Minto, Vaughan, Whitchurch-Stouffville, Brockton, Huron-Kinloss, South Bruce, Chatham-Kent, Mulmur, Clarington, Oshawa, St. Thomas, West Elgin, Kingsville, Meaford, Haldimand, Algonquin Highlands, Oakville, Limerick, Tweed, Tyendinaga, Goderich, Brooke-Alvinston, Point Edward, Greater Nepanee, Newbury, Southwest Middlesex, Bracebridge, Lake of the Bays, Fort Erie, Niagara Falls, St. Catharines, Calvin, Norfolk, Cobourg, Cramahe, Hamilton, Port Hope, Trent Hills, Ingersoll, Woodstock, Armour, Kearney, McMurritch/Monteith, Nipissing, Parry Sound, Parry Sound Unorganized, Powassan, Champlain, East Hawkesbury, Russell, Prince Edward, Killaloe, Hagarty & Richards, Laurentian Valley, Petawawa, Adjala-Tosorontio, Essa, New Tecumseth, Orillia, Tay, Cornwall, Cambridge, Aurora, Newmarket

Here is the remainder of the data.

Tories in the 40s

Brantford, Kincardine, Saugeen Shores, Amherstburg, Essex, Lakeshore, LaSalle, Pelee Island, South Frontenac, Owen Sound, Belleville, Desoronto, Sarnia, Loyalist, Stone Mills, Papineau-Cameron, Burk’s Falls, Peterborough, Clarence-Rockland, The Nation, Head, Clara & Maria, Laurentian Hills, Clearview, Midland, Tiny, Wasaga Beach, Richmond Hill, Ajax, Pickering, Frontenac Islands, Blue Mountains, London, Chisholm, Temigami, Ottawa, Callander, Brampton, Mississauga, Stratford, Alfred & Plantaganet, Hawkesbury, Pembroke, Collingwood, Penetanguishene,  Kitchener, Waterloo, Markham

Tories in the 30s

East Ferries, Nipissing Unorganized, Mattawa, and Bonfield

NDP over 50%

Windsor


NDP in the 40s

West Nipissing, Tecumseh, Thorold, Welland, and Port Colborne

NDP in the 30s

Hamilton

Liberals in the 40s

North Bay, Guelph, and Casselman

Liberals in the 30s

Deep River, Kingston, and Toronto

Here is Southern Ontario using the US style maps.  You can see in much of the province the Tories got over 50% despite averaging only 44% province wide (although it was 45% in Southern Ontario and 47% when you exclude the 416 area code).  Also shows how urbanized it is as if the rural to urban split population wise was more even, the Tories probably would have gotten over 50% province wide with such a map.

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Here is Hamilton 2011

The NDP got over 50% in the old city while the Tories got in the 40s in Stoney Creek and Dundas, 50s in Glanbrook and Ancaster and 60s in Flamborough

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In the case of Ottawa, the Liberals got in the 40s in Rockcliffe Park, NDP in 30s in Vanier and Ottawa, while the Tories got in the 40s in most of the suburbs (Cumberland, Gloucester, Kanata, and Nepean) while 60s in the rural sections (Goulborn, Osgoode, Rideau, and West Carleton)

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While for Toronto it was Tories in the 40s in North York, Liberals in the 30s in Etobicoke and Scarborough, NDP in 40s in Toronto (Old City) while NDP in 30s in York and East York.  Interestingly enough the Liberals were the only party to get above 30% in all of the former municipalities but none over 40%.  Otherwise their vote was far more evenly spread out than the NDP or Conservatives meaning a slight uptick in the GTA could result in a whole wack of new seats at the same time they can get wiped out much easier than the other two parties.  I don't have the boundaries in front of me, but I will try to find them and do a map.

Surprised the Liberals won Nipissing. I thought that part of the riding was more Conservative.

  Nipissing-Timiskaming also includes three municipalities in Parry Sound District which off course the Conservatives handidly won, the Tories also come out ahead in the Timiskaming portion of Nipissing-Timiskaming although the NDP won the district as a whole.  It was really close and it was really North Bay which I think has over the half the population vs. the rest of the district as North Bay was the only municipality the Liberals won in the Nipissing District. 

Looking at how poorly the Liberals did in the neighbouring ridings, I suspect a good chunk of the Liberal vote in Nipissing-Timiskaming were personal Anthony Rota votes, not genuine Liberal votes.  I suspect had he not run, the Liberals would have come in third.

Not sure how accurate that is. North Bay is usually a Liberal town, at least federally.

As promised here is Toronto.

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Tories in the North, Liberals on the East and West and NDP in the middle part.  In reality Scarborough and Etobicoke were quite different in results as Scarborough was a three way race while Etobicoke was a two way race.  Etobicoke is a lot wealthier than Scarborough and not nearly as culturally diverse thus more conservative of the two.  Provincially, I expect Scarborough will stay Liberal although the NDP may do well depending on their numbers while Etobicoke is probably more favourable for a Tory pick up although I wouldn't be shocked either if the Liberals take all three ridings.  I expect the NDP to come in third in all three ridings.  In the case of Scarborough I think the NDP support is a lot softer than it is in the downtown where they have a much firmer base.

True, although the Liberals have never performed so poorly.  Also in most neighbouring ridings, they were in the teens, whereas Anthony Rota still got above 25% in almost all municipalities in his riding so I think had he gotten 10% lower in the rural portions the Tories would have won the district.

So was Sudbury.

I wish you would use some sort of scale on your maps. If you have the raw data, it would be nice if you could send it to me.

Is anyone else surprised the NDP won towns along the lake in Parry Sound and Muskoka? or am i seeing this map wrong? which towns are they?

Those are indian reserves. No surprise, really.

Seems to me the only way aboriginals ever vote Conservative is if one of their own is the local candidate - see Peter Penashue.

Alberta's up!

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/

Is the area around the Calgary Airport largely South Asian?  I am surprised how well the Liberals did here as having been to Calgary numerous time, Liberal is a like a four letter word there.  I don't think I've meant anybody from Calgary who votes Liberal, whereas I have from Edmonton.

I think that is more the case in the Northern regions.  In the Northern areas people seem to vote more for candidate than for any particular political party.  After NWT and Nunavut don't have political parties in their provincial legislatures.  In Southern Canada, I think the Aboriginals go pretty heavily either NDP or Liberal.  The Metis I am not sure about as I know historically the Liberals did well amongst them but not sure if that is still the case.  I know the Tories have a number of Metis MPs so perhaps that has changed.

My wife is from Calgary and my understanding is that your take on the Northeast is correct. I saw a Census snapshot of the provincial riding there last week and I think it had about a third born in South Asia. I'll post a link if I can find it again.

All Albertans I know are Liberals (or perhaps NDP), which is quite amusing.

Yeah, most people who escape Alberta are non Conservatives. If someone tells me they're from Alberta, I know I can safely say "how unfortunate". My girlfriend was born in Edmonton, and she is further to the left than I am.

Oh, there's a metis settlement in Alberta that went NDP.

Edmonton has always been somewhat more left leaning than the rest of the province.  Both the NDP and Liberals have won seats several times provincially and federally.  In fact provincially, both parties have won the majority of seats in Edmonton a few times.  I also know many people in Edmonton who are on the left too.  Calgary however is a totally different story and the same with Rural Alberta.  While there are some on the left in those two places, they tend to keep a low profile.  I heard a story about one couple my parents knew from Calgary who were afraid to talk about the fact they were Liberal due to the negative reactions they would get from everyone. 

Anyways as a side note, using the provincial boundaries, anyone know how many ridings would have been won by the NDP or Liberals?  I am guessing there would be 3 or 4 in Edmonton and maybe one in Calgary and perhaps even one of the two Lethbridge ridings.

From some stuff I've had said to me from conservative or just apolitical people in Alberta ... no. Definitely not.

Two of the four precincts on the Siksika (aka Blackfoot proper) reservation are reported with the exact same result, or is that an error?
I hope it is. On these figures the CPC won the rez (summed) by one vote. :(

Edmonton Centre would have been close, but the Tories probably would have won from vote splitting.
Edmonton-Goldbar would have gone NDP
Sherwood Park would have been close Indy vs Cons race.
Edmonton-Strathcona would have of course voted NDP
Edmonton-Mill Creek looks like it also voted NDP (could be wrong)

In Calgary, the Liberals would have won Calgary-McCall but would have been competitive in Calgary-Cross.

In Lethbridge West, the NDP would have been competitive but would have lost.

I believe Edmonton-Mill Creek was one of only three seats in Edmonton that went PC in the 2004 election.  Mind you Gene Zwodesky was first elected as a Liberal in 1997 and then defected to the PCs, so it could be his personal popularity.  I believe Edmonton-Gold Bar use to be one of the safest Liberal seats in Alberta provincially.   Also didn't the NDP win Edmonton-Highlands as it looks like the Western part of Edmonton East went NDP.  Interestingly enough in Calgary, it looks like the Tories won almost every poll in Calgary-Buffalo, Calgary-Currie, and Calgary-Mountainview.  Although I think in the last provincial election, there was the traditional Edmonton-Calgary rivalry.  Ralph Klein being from Calgary probably helped him there but hurt him in Edmonton, whereas Ed Stelmach being from just outside Edmonton probably helped regain some of the lost seats, while hurt him in Calgary.  Federally you don't get the Edmonton-Calgary rivalry like you do provincially or in hockey.

If the Wild Rose Party does well next election, all that will be thrown out the window.

One of those polls would have been merged into the other. I just assigned the same results to both polls in those cases.

So those votes were only cast once? Ie, the NDP won Siksika?
Well, that's a relief. -_-

True enough, although I think the Wildrose Alliance is strongest in Rural Alberta.  In Calgary and Edmonton they are at this point only strong enough to split the vote which in the case of Calgary would benefit the Liberals as the NDP is practically non-existent there while in Edmonton it could benefit either party.  Also a lot will depend on who the new leader is.  If the new PC leader is more right wing than Ed Stelmach, I suspect a lot of those flirting with the Wildrose Alliance will come back to the PCs.

Toute fini. BC and the north are done.

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/

Excellent stuff! :D I'll add a link from my site.

It looks like Vancouver East and Langley were the only ridings any party swept.  In the case of South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale, I believe the NDP poll near the border is the Semiahoo reserve which I believe straddles the border.  It looks like my parents' poll in Vancouver Centre and their other home on Bowen Island went Tory despite the fact the Liberals won Bowen Island and also won Vancouver Centre.  In the case of Whistler interesting that the Liberal polls were mostly south of the three lakes (Alta, and the Twin Lakes can't remember the names of each) as I recall these mostly being expensive properties owned by city residents usually over 40.  The areas the Conservatives won north of Highway 99 were more where your younger residents lived although the NDP did win Whistler Village.  Another interesting part is the Liberals didn't win a single poll in Vancouver-Kingsway and Richmond despite the fact they won these ridings in 2006.  It seems the Liberal vote imploded and went much the way people voted provincially.  Otherwise those who voted Liberal federally and provincially (the BC Liberals are more conservative than Liberal) swung over to the Conservatives, while those who voted NDP provincially and Liberal federally, swung over to the NDP.  Also in Vancouver-Quadra, the polls seem to correspond closely with the provincial boundaries otherwise the Liberals won Vancouver-Point Grey and Tories Vancouver-Quilchena.  Vancouver-Point Grey was never a strong BC Liberal riding and probably went BC Liberal more because the MP, Gordon Campbell and now Christy Clark happened to be premier, whereas Vancouver-Quilchena along with West Vancouver-Capilano are the two safest BC Liberal ridings in the province thus not surprising the Conservatives would win Vancouver-Quilchena, although not by the massive margins the BC Liberals did.

The poll I live in when I was living in Whistler voted Tory. Not surprising as it's new developments.  I wonder if they built over the camp they had us on yet?

I don't know much about the demographics of Whistler, as I assumed everyone there I encountered did not live there.

There is the problem as the majority of home owners or renters are seasonal who only come on the weekend, not permanant residents.  Never mind a significant portion of the staff on the mountains are Aussies who only live their seasonally and are not eligible to vote.  I haven't checked the stats, but best to check Stats Canada as I believe they only count those who are permanant residents and also they will give the breakdown between citizens and non-citizens although not amongst each group.  I should note although not too familiar, cottage country in Ontario probably has a huge influx of seasonal residents although I don't believe they can vote in those ridings, I think they have to vote in their home one, but it may give those who live there a false impression of the demographics nonetheless.

When I was in the university residences, Elections Canada offrred me to vote at home or at university. I suppose it is the same for cottages, no?

With a proof of residence, you can do much.

That is only for University students.  I was told the same, however for seasonal residents, you cannot vote there.  My parents have a seasonal place and they have to vote in their main place of residence.  University is a bit different since most spend the semesters in session in the riding of the university or nearby while the the semesters they don't take courses at home thus it is tough call whereas for seasonal residents, there is clearly a primarily one.

I should add that for municipal elections at least in BC, you can vote in your seasonal place, in fact any municipality you own property in you can vote irrespective of how much time you spend there.  However for provincial and federal, this is not allowed.  Part of it, is for federal and provincial, you pay income taxes, whereas municipally you pay property taxes so there is a certain logic of allowing one to vote where they have a seasonal residence as opposed to provincially and federally.

Also, there is a risk of voting two times for provincial and federal elections. There is no problem with double voting in municipal elections. If you live in two different towns, you have a right to be represented in both towns.

In Quebec if I remember well, you have to live in the city since at least 6 months or be the owner of a building since at least 12 months (including businesses). If a building has multiple owners and than they all live outsite the city, if they decide to vote, they must choose which one of themselves will vote.

So, for a seasonal place, only the owner of the building can vote.

Anybody have any maps by municipality or county they want me to start working On?

You did New Brunswick by county? I don't remember if you did.

  Yes I did.

PEI by municipality/lot would be interesting. I have a some such outline maps in my old PEI games threads if you need one.

Any site where I could connect the lots to poll#s or municipalities?

Miles, Elections PEI (http://www.electionspei.ca/provincial/districts/comparison/) has a PDF which compares provincial and federal poll numbers. Perhaps it also has a similar comparison table?

Greater Vancouver might be interesting.

Numbers for the Northern Ontario Provincial Ridings would be nice, too...

He dosn't do numbers :P if he did I'd be begging him for his Toronto numbers, and his Greater Toronto numbers, and his... well frankly everything. Numbers are far more useful than maps.