Talk Elections

NH-01:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Congressman Frank Guinta’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 39%
Disapprove...................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 24%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Carol Shea-Porter?

Favorable........................................................ 40%
Unfavorable .................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q3 If the candidates for Congress next year were Republican Frank Guinta and Democrat Carol Shea-Porter, who would you vote for?

Frank Guinta................................................... 48%
Carol Shea-Porter........................................... 41%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

...

NH-02:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Congressman Charlie Bass' job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 29%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 23%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ann McLane Kuster?

Favorable........................................................ 36%
Unfavorable .................................................... 30%
Not sure .......................................................... 34%

Q3 If the candidates for Congress next year were Republican Charlie Bass and Democrat Ann McLane Kuster, who would you vote for?

Charlie Bass ................................................... 43%
Ann McLane Kuster ........................................ 42%
Undecided....................................................... 15%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_0713.pdf

Interesting results. Is Shea Porter considering a 2012 run?

jeez, maybe voting to get rid of Medicare/Medicaid in a Kerry district wasn't the best idea in the world?

Bass is dead meat. Nobody with these kind of numbers can win an election in a D+3 district.

Someone better primary Bass.

NH-01 is a low hanging fruit for Democrats (though NH-02 is lower), but CSP is not the person to win the seat back.

She's already announced (as has Kuster, for that matter).

Which is funny, because the next topline has him doing just that.

I though their last batch of NH polls showed Kuster pretty decently ahead of Bass...

Guinta's such a right-wing nut that why did he win at all?

He's up by 1 with 43%. That is absolutely wretched for an incumbent.

Given the way Obama is polling there, and further, given the surge of Republican registrations there since 2010, I have my doubts that this will still be a D+3 district come Nov. 7, 2012.

How much has it surged?

Nobody with 29-48 favorables is going to get reelected in this district, unless his opponent is Ted Bundy.

Well, statewide...

http://www.sos.nh.gov/Reg%20Voters%20by%20Town%20Ward%202009-11-16.pdf
http://www.sos.nh.gov/Voters%20on%20the%20Checklist%20Booklet%202011-03-01.pdf

It has surged by a whole 4,000 voters.

I was looking more at the fact that Democrats had a 1,600 voter advantage, which was turned around into a 8,500 voter advantage for the GOP, but whatever. A much more appropriate metric to look is still the 2010 election results.

What for? So Kuster can start buying office furniture?

Where Bass underperformed miserably compared to the rest of the Republican ticket.

Aside from the fact that she did better than expected against a candidate who did worse than expected, there's nothing especially juggernautish about Kuster. She's currently got 36/30 favorables in a state with an independent base that is not looking especially kindly on Democrats right now.

I think Lewis was implying that Bass is still the GOP's best chance to hold the seat despite his flaws.

I'm suggesting that may not be the case. Though I concede that the GOP bench isn't very deep, it's as deep as the Democratic bench -- both consist almost exclusively of people who have run for stuff in the past and lost.

Because the election was rigged, of course.

No it's because after flirting with being a swing state, New Hampshire is starting to trend back to its Republican roots.

I'm not sure that it is becoming a Republican state again (even though I would like to see that), what is clear however is that 2006 and 2008 overstated the strength of the Democrats there.

No the Republicans rigged the election. Stop telling lies.

I think we are seeing an anti-administration swing in the state, regardless of which party that may be.

Which would fit my general impression of New Hampshire.