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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: You kip if you want to... on July 17, 2011, 05:32:19 PM



Title: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on July 17, 2011, 05:32:19 PM
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/07/17/nielsen-61-39-to-coalition/

It can't get much worse for her, although she's far more preferable than Abbott.

If there was to be a leadership spill, who'd step up to the plate? Would Rudd be asked to have another go or would it be Wayne Swan or somebody else?


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Smid on July 17, 2011, 05:39:19 PM
Preferable to Abbott? The Nielson poll has the opposite, as did the previous Newspoll.

As to who would replace her, there was a flood of money backing Simon Crean last week. He moved from $101 to $11 on two sites, one of which has suspended betting on Labor leadership.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on July 17, 2011, 05:41:53 PM
Preferable to Abbott? The Nielson poll has the opposite, as did the previous Newspoll.


As in, my own opinion


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: redcommander on July 17, 2011, 06:37:19 PM
She's doomed. I'd be surprised if the current parliament even lasts its full term.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 17, 2011, 06:57:54 PM
Depends if anyone else wants the job right now; might make more sense to wait until the fuss over the carbon tax thing has blown over just a little bit. Even if we're talking in terms of (say) weeks rather than months.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Smid on July 17, 2011, 08:37:02 PM
She's doomed. I'd be surprised if the current parliament even lasts its full term.

I can't see an election being called early (this has been my opinion since, well, since both sides were negotiating with the independents). It's not in Labor's best interests, it's not in the Greens' best interests, and it's certainly not in the best interests of the independents, who will either be unseated, or at the very least lose their balance of power position. A double dissolution requires the passage of legislation in one house, with the same legislation being blocked or unacceptably amended by the other house (and for this to happen with the same piece of legislation a couple of times). With a minority in both houses, I can't see anything passing one house but not the other - I suspect anything will almost certainly fail to pass both houses, or would pass both houses.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Platypus on July 18, 2011, 02:01:58 AM
I doubt it. Once this is over, there'll be two years where Abbott has to come up with policy, which is definitely not his strong suit. He can't keep on this issue for that long, I don't think, unless it really does destroy our economy (and it won't).

As far as the ALP leadership goes, the brand is damaged enough without a spill. If there were a spill, Rudd wouldn't be chosen by the same people who hated him enough to oust him last year. Crean would be an excellent choice, but wouldn't be chosen even if it did, somehow, happen.

Oh, and she's clearly, clearly preferably to Abbott. ;)


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on July 18, 2011, 11:16:22 AM
I wouldn't be so sure of it. I hate to always bring up Sweden 2010, but here the goverment were trailing the opposition by 17% two years before the election. Tony Abbott appears to have the makings of a Mona Sahlin, and I'm not saying that only because they're both increadibly ugly.

As for wether Gillard is done as leader, I have no idea as I don't know much of the inner workings of the ALP. But I think I'd be unfortunate for them if they become known as the party who changes leader like other changes underwear.   


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Barnes on July 18, 2011, 11:53:40 AM
Meh, I think she'll loos much of her unpopularity once the carbon tax debate is over, but I think that the Coalition will still be the natural favorites in the 2013 election, although a lot can change in two years!

She's doomed. I'd be surprised if the current parliament even lasts its full term.

Why would that be exactly?


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: redcommander on July 18, 2011, 04:07:37 PM
Meh, I think she'll loos much of her unpopularity once the carbon tax debate is over, but I think that the Coalition will still be the natural favorites in the 2013 election, although a lot can change in two years!

She's doomed. I'd be surprised if the current parliament even lasts its full term.

Why would that be exactly?

Because the carbon tax debate isn't likely to go away anytime soon, and even if it does, the Coalition could run a campaign pointing out how Gillard was dishonest in her past statements about implementing a carbon tax in the first place.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on July 18, 2011, 04:40:35 PM
I wouldn't be so sure of it. I hate to always bring up Sweden 2010, but here the goverment were trailing the opposition by 17% two years before the election. Tony Abbott appears to have the makings of a Mona Sahlin, and I'm not saying that only because they're both increadibly ugly.

Was the right as unpopular as the ALP are though? In terms of Mona Sahlin, Ed Miliband will probably end up being another 'her'.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 18, 2011, 05:41:45 PM
Mona Sahlin was/is a party hack who got the top job because no one else wanted it. Say whatever you like about Abbott and Miliband (and isn't it odd to have them mentioned in the same breath?), that's not them.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Platypus on July 18, 2011, 10:59:08 PM
Meh, I think she'll loos much of her unpopularity once the carbon tax debate is over, but I think that the Coalition will still be the natural favorites in the 2013 election, although a lot can change in two years!

She's doomed. I'd be surprised if the current parliament even lasts its full term.

Why would that be exactly?

Because the carbon tax debate isn't likely to go away anytime soon, and even if it does, the Coalition could run a campaign pointing out how Gillard was dishonest in her past statements about implementing a carbon tax in the first place.

The thing is, it is going away soon. Certainly before the next election. Once it does go, Abbott actually has to start presenting policy. So far almost every time he has done so, his fundings are wrong, it's unpopular, it contradicts other policy or it's proven to be ineffective, so Gillard is happy to wait for that to bite him on the arse.

The biggest concern for Gillard would be the Liberals getting a brain and dumping Abbott after the Carbon tax debate is over. Putting in someone who the doctor's wives could actually vote for, as well as Cranbourne Man.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Peter the Lefty on October 19, 2011, 08:06:24 PM
Based on polls, it seems unthinkable that Julia Gillard will have been replaced by the end of 2013, either through a Liberal victory in the election, or some coup against her putting Kevin Rudd back in his old job.  Either way, it would take a MASSIVE poll comeback for her to stay on.  If the ALP is decimated at the next election the way polls suggest, who might end up leading the party in opposition?  I guess it'll have to be Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, or Nicola Roxon because I can't possibly imagine it being someone from the left of the party like Penny Wong, Jenny Macklin, or Chris Evans, given Gillard's record. 


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 19, 2011, 08:34:38 PM
You mistake thinking the ALP is really about left and right... because in the end, they want a face that will argue their points and win them the election.

I mean, Gillard was installed by the right factions....

The Australian voting public is just as fickle as the US one... can the ALP win the next election... perhaps... but can the Coalition lose it? Absolutely. I think the ALP poll numbers will re-bound a little, as the carbon price issue has been slightly neutralised for some.

And Hugh is absolutely right, Abbott is the Libs Achilles's Heel - he's a reason why Rudd lost his mojo and his job - but he's also the reason they didn't win enough seats last year... people just don't like him... consider that there's about a 17-20% gap in Primary votes and about 16-18% TPP gap... yet Abbott is only JUST ahead of Gillard as preferred PM. He's an outstanding Opposition Leader, he goes for the jugular at every opportunity and will just be as negative as possible. But when you're in a minority government situation, the term 'Alternative PM' really matters.  And it seems to me that Gillard's big drop in popularity is more about disappointment than genuine dislike for most.

Consider this argument, I have been harassing friends relatively high up in the ALP for weeks over this... imagine Gillard making this comment...

"Under our carbon pricing arrangement, we have made sure that almost 80% of households will be fully compensated for any related price increases, in fact, with increased pensions, family assistance and tax cuts, many will be financially better off under this arrangement.

Tony Abbott says he will deliver those benefits and bring the Budget into surplus without either the super-profits mining tax or the carbon price on our biggest carbon emitters.

How?

As usual, he's making promises to the Australian people, without a clear plan as to how he's going to do it. He says he'll sack hard-working Australians in the public service, up to 12,000... but even that wouldn't even reach 5% of the money he'd need to keep all of his promises. Either he's confused in his maths, he's lying to us or we will see a bloodbath of vital services and programs cut... so I ask all Australians to ask Tony Abbott, how will you do this? and if you're not lying to us... what are you going to cut? What vital services will be on the chopping block? "

I personally think that's the best way to get the ALP back in the driver's seat - play on public unease over Abbott and actually have the balls to do something really dramatic.  


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 19, 2011, 08:37:56 PM
She's doomed. I'd be surprised if the current parliament even lasts its full term.

I can't see an election being called early (this has been my opinion since, well, since both sides were negotiating with the independents). It's not in Labor's best interests, it's not in the Greens' best interests, and it's certainly not in the best interests of the independents, who will either be unseated, or at the very least lose their balance of power position. A double dissolution requires the passage of legislation in one house, with the same legislation being blocked or unacceptably amended by the other house (and for this to happen with the same piece of legislation a couple of times). With a minority in both houses, I can't see anything passing one house but not the other - I suspect anything will almost certainly fail to pass both houses, or would pass both houses.

Exactly right - there's virtually no chance for an early-election. The Independents have made their beds and Andrew Wilkie who I think is a self-aggrandising fool, wouldn't dare handing Abbott Government, because his seat is a left-wing seat and he'd be out on his arse.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Smid on October 19, 2011, 10:38:11 PM
Wilkie's an interesting one... I know he realises that his seat would not return him if he backed Abbott, however he may have painted himself into the corner with the deadline he set for the implementation of compulsory pre-commitment on pokie machines by next year's budget. He could always back away from that, but it seems he's serious enough about the issue that he'd rather lose his seat but feel that he stood up for his beliefs, than not lose his seat but have backed away from the most primary issue for which he stands.

More likely, he'd not necessarily install Abbott as PM, rather advise him that he'd support a no-confidence motion and try to trigger an election. His seat may forgive him for that, although he'd probably still need Liberal preferences to get across the line, and who knows whether or not he'd get them. Regardless, if he decided to try to bring down the Government, it would probably be after the budget, because I can't imagine Hockey wanting to push through Labor's budget (since that would confuse the message of whether or not the Coalition supports the budget), and there would not be time for a newly-installed Liberal Government to write a fresh budget and have it pass both Houses before 1 July, and there would certainly not be time to call an election, have a 36-day campaign (I think that's the minimum length, Constitutionally), wait for the declaration of the poll in all the seats, swear in the new House, introduce new Appropriation Bills and then have them pass both Houses... there's just not enough time to do that. Therefore I can't see the Opposition using a vote against the Budget as a defacto no-confidence motion, nor see them wanting a no-confidence motion prior to the passage of the Budget. After the Budget, there is the winter recess for a couple of months, so the first real chance after Wilkie's deadline for the Government to fall would be August or September, I think, which would only be a couple of months short of full-term anyway (enough so that I don't think it would count as an early election), indeed if there was any rumour surrounding the possibility of that happening, I think the PM would just take a drive up to see the GG before it happened.

I don't have any inside knowledge or anything, that's just my speculation.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 20, 2011, 05:07:17 PM
What I'm arguing isn't that Wilkie could trigger the election which would install the Abbott as PM.

Mind you, by locking himself into a rock-solid position he's shown his lack of political instinct and I think has guaranteed his losing however the election happens... in order to survive in politics (despite all of those 'liar and flip-flop' taunts) is to be flexible - and he's about as inflexible as it comes.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 20, 2011, 05:33:10 PM
Mind you, by locking himself into a rock-solid position he's shown his lack of political instinct and I think has guaranteed his losing however the election happens... in order to survive in politics (despite all of those 'liar and flip-flop' taunts) is to be flexible - and he's about as inflexible as it comes.

The flip side that you describe would be to pull a Clegg, again guaranteeing defeat.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Platypus on October 20, 2011, 10:25:26 PM
he was incredibly lucky to get in in the first place, and he knows he's unlikely to have the same luck again in any case, so he's pushing to get everything he wants in his time in parliament done ASAP. If Abbott were able to guarantee passage of the pokies reform measures, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Wilkie backed him. It isn't likely, of course, but certainly a possibility.

For Labor to win (which is certainly still a very real possibility), it needs to go for the legislative jugular and start governing. Force the BoPpers to support it or oppose it, but keep presenting legislation with real, popular support and effects. At the very least, policies which truly reflect their base. Start with the social policies - gay marriage, something for the indigenous groups, a humane asylum policy, raise the disability pension etc; and enthuse the base. You can't win Western Sydney and SE Queensland off Abbott with 'conservative-lite', but if you can sure up the 45% of seats that are naturally labor you go into the election with the ability to focus money and attention on say 8 seats for government. As it is, there is no enthusiasm at all for Labor, and while they won't lose seats like Gellibrand or Batman, they're tracking badly to lose places like Lyons and Lilley largely due to apathy. Give those seats a genuine enthusiasm about Labor and they'll automatically reject Abbott, who is entirely outside the ideological range for either place.

Australians don't want to vote in the coalition, particularly under Abbott, but they see absolutely no reason to vote for Labor. Give the left a reason to vote for Labor and then focus on the swing seats in a genuine contest between left and right, not Julia and Tony.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 20, 2011, 10:47:36 PM
I agree - they waste too much time trying to show how similar they are to the Coalition, when, considering Abbott is leader, the ALP's best chance is to show a strong contrast to them.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 21, 2011, 07:32:27 AM
he was incredibly lucky to get in in the first place, and he knows he's unlikely to have the same luck again in any case, so he's pushing to get everything he wants in his time in parliament done ASAP. If Abbott were able to guarantee passage of the pokies reform measures, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Wilkie backed him. It isn't likely, of course, but certainly a possibility.

For Labor to win (which is certainly still a very real possibility), it needs to go for the legislative jugular and start governing. Force the BoPpers to support it or oppose it, but keep presenting legislation with real, popular support and effects. At the very least, policies which truly reflect their base. Start with the social policies - gay marriage, something for the indigenous groups, a humane asylum policy, raise the disability pension etc; and enthuse the base. You can't win Western Sydney and SE Queensland off Abbott with 'conservative-lite', but if you can sure up the 45% of seats that are naturally labor you go into the election with the ability to focus money and attention on say 8 seats for government. As it is, there is no enthusiasm at all for Labor, and while they won't lose seats like Gellibrand or Batman, they're tracking badly to lose places like Lyons and Lilley largely due to apathy. Give those seats a genuine enthusiasm about Labor and they'll automatically reject Abbott, who is entirely outside the ideological range for either place.

Australians don't want to vote in the coalition, particularly under Abbott, but they see absolutely no reason to vote for Labor. Give the left a reason to vote for Labor and then focus on the swing seats in a genuine contest between left and right, not Julia and Tony.

Alas, will the ALP ever follow such sound advise? I doubt it...


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 21, 2011, 08:31:01 AM
Almost certainly the professional advisors would be advising something else, yes. Alas.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Peter the Lefty on October 21, 2011, 06:19:41 PM
You mistake thinking the ALP is really about left and right... because in the end, they want a face that will argue their points and win them the election.

I mean, Gillard was installed by the right factions....

The Australian voting public is just as fickle as the US one... can the ALP win the next election... perhaps... but can the Coalition lose it? Absolutely. I think the ALP poll numbers will re-bound a little, as the carbon price issue has been slightly neutralised for some.

And Hugh is absolutely right, Abbott is the Libs Achilles's Heel - he's a reason why Rudd lost his mojo and his job - but he's also the reason they didn't win enough seats last year... people just don't like him... consider that there's about a 17-20% gap in Primary votes and about 16-18% TPP gap... yet Abbott is only JUST ahead of Gillard as preferred PM. He's an outstanding Opposition Leader, he goes for the jugular at every opportunity and will just be as negative as possible. But when you're in a minority government situation, the term 'Alternative PM' really matters.  And it seems to me that Gillard's big drop in popularity is more about disappointment than genuine dislike for most.

Consider this argument, I have been harassing friends relatively high up in the ALP for weeks over this... imagine Gillard making this comment...

"Under our carbon pricing arrangement, we have made sure that almost 80% of households will be fully compensated for any related price increases, in fact, with increased pensions, family assistance and tax cuts, many will be financially better off under this arrangement.

Tony Abbott says he will deliver those benefits and bring the Budget into surplus without either the super-profits mining tax or the carbon price on our biggest carbon emitters.

How?

As usual, he's making promises to the Australian people, without a clear plan as to how he's going to do it. He says he'll sack hard-working Australians in the public service, up to 12,000... but even that wouldn't even reach 5% of the money he'd need to keep all of his promises. Either he's confused in his maths, he's lying to us or we will see a bloodbath of vital services and programs cut... so I ask all Australians to ask Tony Abbott, how will you do this? and if you're not lying to us... what are you going to cut? What vital services will be on the chopping block? "

I personally think that's the best way to get the ALP back in the driver's seat - play on public unease over Abbott and actually have the balls to do something really dramatic.  
So who do you see as people who could lead the ALP after 2013, assuming what we all expect to happen will happen? 


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 21, 2011, 06:46:44 PM
I personally think that's the best way to get the ALP back in the driver's seat - play on public unease over Abbott and actually have the balls to do something really dramatic.  

That only ever works if the government hasn't crossed the threshold between "unpopular" and "toxic". Is the ALP toxic or just unpopular?

Worth noting that British Labour was about 25 points adrift two years out from an election, they "only" lost by 7 after unease began to bubble about Cameron.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 21, 2011, 07:06:28 PM
Worth noting that British Labour was about 25 points adrift two years out from an election, they "only" lost by 7 after unease began to bubble about Cameron.

In part, though, that dramatic narrowing was because they adopted the sort of tactics Hugh is suggesting, even if they weren't taken to their logical conclusion.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: redcommander on October 21, 2011, 09:34:46 PM
I personally think that's the best way to get the ALP back in the driver's seat - play on public unease over Abbott and actually have the balls to do something really dramatic.  

That only ever works if the government hasn't crossed the threshold between "unpopular" and "toxic". Is the ALP toxic or just unpopular?

Worth noting that British Labour was about 25 points adrift two years out from an election, they "only" lost by 7 after unease began to bubble about Cameron.

Bob Brown isn't a Nick Clegg though. I don't see potential change voters voting for him over the Coalition. The Greens if anything make it more difficult for Labor to win against Abbott. Of course they could always take another chance, and bring Rudd back.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 22, 2011, 03:18:08 AM
I personally think that's the best way to get the ALP back in the driver's seat - play on public unease over Abbott and actually have the balls to do something really dramatic.  

That only ever works if the government hasn't crossed the threshold between "unpopular" and "toxic". Is the ALP toxic or just unpopular?

Worth noting that British Labour was about 25 points adrift two years out from an election, they "only" lost by 7 after unease began to bubble about Cameron.

The point that both Hugh and I are making is that the ALP isn't toxic... I think people genuinely want a reason to support Gillard. They support Abbott out of frustration and the sense that the Government is directionless.

There is some genuine shift to the Coalition no doubt... but not as much as they think.

Plus, in Australia blow-out elections are rare, and 10%+ TPP vote margins are almost unheard of.

I personally think that's the best way to get the ALP back in the driver's seat - play on public unease over Abbott and actually have the balls to do something really dramatic. 

That only ever works if the government hasn't crossed the threshold between "unpopular" and "toxic". Is the ALP toxic or just unpopular?

Worth noting that British Labour was about 25 points adrift two years out from an election, they "only" lost by 7 after unease began to bubble about Cameron.

Bob Brown isn't a Nick Clegg though. I don't see potential change voters voting for him over the Coalition. The Greens if anything make it more difficult for Labor to win against Abbott. Of course they could always take another chance, and bring Rudd back.

The Greens don't really make it too hard, the people who hated the Green still do - and the Greens' primary vote hasn't changed .

I can tell you 75% of ALP parliamentarians would rather lose than bring Rudd back... plus with how unpleasant the environment is... he'd probably rather wait once the next election is over with.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 24, 2011, 08:59:07 PM
New Newspoll out today

Primary vote
ALP: 29 -
Coalition: 45 -4
Greens: 15 +3 (equals their PV record)

TPP
Coalition: 54 -3
ALP: 46 +3

Satisfaction

Gillard
Satisfied: 30+2
Dissatisfied: 61+1

Abbott
Satisfied: 34 -2
Disatisfied: 56 +3


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 02, 2011, 04:52:00 PM
http://www.news.com.au/national/november-coup-plotted-on-julia-gillard-pressure-on-kevin-rudd-to-push-for-top-job/story-e6frfkvr-1226184111748

New story out today... now this is from a NewsCorp paper, which always makes me extremely unsure. Plus Gillard is in France for the G20 right now, so it adds more excitement.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 02, 2011, 05:40:21 PM
What's the likely outcome here? Does Rudd have the balls to pull a Heseltine? Anyhoo, I don't see it salvaging Lab's prospects despite a dead cat's polling bounce.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 02, 2011, 07:57:53 PM
What's the likely outcome here? Does Rudd have the balls to pull a Heseltine? Anyhoo, I don't see it salvaging Lab's prospects despite a dead cat's polling bounce.

You see, this is what Hugh and I have been arguing, the ALP's prospects while grim now, could rebound quite strongly, the ALP have been fighting the wrong fights, in the wrong way, for the wrong reasons... This week saw the first real cohesive attacks ON Abbott - the ALP can certainly win back some ground. This to me is their best chance, don't try to play Abbott on his territory and stop letting him direct the agenda - start being creative and start showing a contrast to Abbott, rather than how similar you are.

Chances are... if Rudd is going to try (which honestly, I find odd) he would need to do it soon, but after the Carbon and Mining Tax Bills are passed... because there are two alternatives.

a) If Gillard is able to gain some traction in the polls, and they aren't going to replace someone with whom they're frustrated, with someone they still hate, if there's a chance she could recover.

b) Rudd leaves it too late, if Gillard doesn't recover, chances are Rudd will go down with the ship. He's not going to try if he weren't sure he would win the next election.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Platypus on November 06, 2011, 07:20:19 PM
Gillard has been quite sucessful with all the various events of the past fortnight - Queen, CHOGM, QANTAS, G20 - and it sort of proves the point that when they ignore the Liberals and she just becomes the PM, she does a good job.

Obviously there are still those who have attacked her, but I feel this last fortnight has been the beginning of her resurgence. Put forward a clear policy on poker machines and she'll be set.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Smid on November 07, 2011, 03:05:03 AM
Seriously? Qantas? She got tipped off three hours early that they were grounding flights, refused to call Joyce (who, let's face it, was only doing it so it would go before Fairwork Australia), didn't send I to Fairwork Australia and just generally did nothing, leaving it for the NSW an Victorian state  governments to refer it. If she'd acted in the three hours between finding out and when they were to be grounded, the entire crisis could have been averted. At the very least, she could have phoned Joyce and told him she'd refer it if he postponed the lockout until Monday morning - which would have prevented it. I think it was extremely poorly handled.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Phony Moderate on November 07, 2011, 08:48:21 AM
Newspoll (Nov 4-6 2011):

Primary Vote:

ALP - 32% (+3)
Coalition - 44% (-1)

2PP Vote:

ALP - 47% (+1)
Coalition - 53% (-1)

Best Prime Minister:

Gillard - 39% (+3)
Abbott - 40% (+1)

Approval Ratings:

Gillard - Satisfied - 30% (-1), Dissatisfied - 60% (-1)
Abbott - Satisfied - 34% (NC), Dissatisfied - 57% (+2)



Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 07, 2011, 10:16:19 AM
Why is the Coalition advantage slowly eroding? Dead cat's bounce for Lab or something else?


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 07, 2011, 03:20:27 PM
Why is the Coalition advantage slowly eroding? Dead cat's bounce for Lab or something else?

A bit, and the fact that Tony Abbott's hated too. The last few weeks have gone well for the government as well, not taking any bait from the Coalition, the Queen's visit for example.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 07, 2011, 03:45:43 PM
Why is the Coalition advantage slowly eroding? Dead cat's bounce for Lab or something else?

A bit, and the fact that Tony Abbott's hated too. The last few weeks have gone well for the government as well, not taking any bait from the Coalition, the Queen's visit for example.

I think it does reflect that idea of people wanting a reason to support Gillard.

Seriously? Qantas? She got tipped off three hours early that they were grounding flights, refused to call Joyce (who, let's face it, was only doing it so it would go before Fairwork Australia), didn't send I to Fairwork Australia and just generally did nothing, leaving it for the NSW an Victorian state  governments to refer it. If she'd acted in the three hours between finding out and when they were to be grounded, the entire crisis could have been averted. At the very least, she could have phoned Joyce and told him she'd refer it if he postponed the lockout until Monday morning - which would have prevented it. I think it was extremely poorly handled.

I disagree with this entirely. Joyce had planned the lockout for at least a week before it happened - Opposition members, including the Shadow Treasurer knew that it was coming... and did nothing (you'd think that Minority Government would have encouraged a bit of pro-activity). The Prime Minister was told was 2pm Saturday but keep in mind that Joyce said that he was wasn't asking the Government to do anything ... he did it as a courtesy. The Government had issued the request to FWA by 6:30pm that  night... 4.5 hours to get an emergency tribunal hearing organised is actually pretty impressive. And there's absolutely no evidence that Gillard or Albanese knew the grounding was coming... yet the Opposition did?

It was clearly a tactic from Joyce to get the Government to react - but there was no actual formal attempt to get the Government to intervene BEFORE. Which I find it all amusing... the Coalition would prefer none of FWA would exist... but this shows the FWA WORKS... but it was QANTAS's shock tactics that forced this to happen - when Joyce had plenty of options - for example... he could have asked FWA to intervene, he could have threatened the grounding (ie 24 hours warning).

Gillard came out of this looking relatively good, despite the Coalition attempts and Abbott and especially Hockey looked bad because it brought back the Libs biggest weak-spot. When Abbott and Hockey essentially defended Joyce's actions over the workers and the 75,000 stranded travellers - regardless of the reason - it looked REALLY bad and brought back memories of the WorkChoices issue. 


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 07, 2011, 04:22:06 PM
If the ALP were to consistently poll at 47-48 on 2PP, going into the election, is that really the point where a good campaign could clinge them a win?


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 07, 2011, 04:24:30 PM
I see two outcomes: either UK Tories from 1993 onward, where open civil war erupts and they run out the clock, or the Canadian Liberals in the mid-2000s: fatally damaged but only lose narrowly when the votes are tallied with the real implosion coming later.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 07, 2011, 04:31:32 PM
I see two outcomes: either UK Tories from 1993 onward, where open civil war erupts and they run out the clock, or the Canadian Liberals in the mid-2000s: fatally damaged but only lose narrowly when the votes are tallied with the real implosion coming later.

Or Aus '93?


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 07, 2011, 04:44:28 PM
I see two outcomes: either UK Tories from 1993 onward, where open civil war erupts and they run out the clock, or the Canadian Liberals in the mid-2000s: fatally damaged but only lose narrowly when the votes are tallied with the real implosion coming later.

Or Aus '93?

The rule is that you get one waiver post-coup before a long stay in opposition. Oz 1993, UK 1992, Canada 2004. That waiver was used last year. Among the many differences, Keating probably didn't have openly bubbling intraparty dissent to the point of detailed coup rumors.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on November 07, 2011, 04:47:05 PM
For heaven's sake, why won't the Liberals throw Abbott on the dump? He's the weak link that might keep them from winning the next general election. I'm sure the party must have at least one competent and likable person.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 07, 2011, 05:02:10 PM
For heaven's sake, why won't the Liberals throw Abbott on the dump? He's the weak link that might keep them from winning the next general election. I'm sure the party must have at least one competent and likable person.

Again... 'Achilles Heel' - Abbott's effectiveness with negativity is what puts them where they are. Without Abbott, you'd have to wonder how well they'd do.

But the ONLY real credible alternative for the Libs is Turnbull, who is pretty much on the wrong side on most of the key issues the Libs are now advocating. Turnbull is the only Lib I would vote for... which tells you something. 


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 07, 2011, 05:57:40 PM
I see two outcomes: either UK Tories from 1993 onward, where open civil war erupts and they run out the clock, or the Canadian Liberals in the mid-2000s: fatally damaged but only lose narrowly when the votes are tallied with the real implosion coming later.

Or Aus '93?

The rule is that you get one waiver post-coup before a long stay in opposition. Oz 1993, UK 1992, Canada 2004. That waiver was used last year. Among the many differences, Keating probably didn't have openly bubbling intraparty dissent to the point of detailed coup rumors.

I don't think you can put rules like that on it.

Plus, if Gillard gains traction the active dissent will quieten down - my view is that if Gillard can establish a lead or even makes it level-pegging... my guts says she'll be untouchable.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Platypus on November 07, 2011, 09:31:48 PM
Re: Smid and Polnut

Smid is almost never a total hack for the Liberals, but to suggest that Labor did worse out of it is just ridiculous. The Liberals were unorganised, hypocritical, and secretive about knowledge that could have helped prevent this well in advance.

I don't think it was a great moment in ALP leadership, but I do think the government handled it well enough in the circumstances, and I definitely think the Liberals completely missed the mark, as they are in the process of doing with Superannuation. I don't want to get too excited, but I get the feeling the Libs are getting incredibly frustrated with life.


----------

As far as Gillard's untouchability...way too early to say that yet, but I would say with a straight face that she is the more likely winner of the next election.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 07, 2011, 10:14:54 PM
Re: Smid and Polnut

Smid is almost never a total hack for the Liberals, but to suggest that Labor did worse out of it is just ridiculous. The Liberals were unorganised, hypocritical, and secretive about knowledge that could have helped prevent this well in advance.

I don't think it was a great moment in ALP leadership, but I do think the government handled it well enough in the circumstances, and I definitely think the Liberals completely missed the mark, as they are in the process of doing with Superannuation. I don't want to get too excited, but I get the feeling the Libs are getting incredibly frustrated with life.


----------

As far as Gillard's untouchability...way too early to say that yet, but I would say with a straight face that she is the more likely winner of the next election.

To be fair I did put caveats on that :P


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 08, 2011, 12:51:45 AM
I would find it hilarious if Rudd came back. The Prime Minister is clearly nothing but the spokesman for the government, so what difference does it make?


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: redcommander on November 08, 2011, 01:03:24 AM
Why hasn't anyone challenged Abbott? The Coalition has plenty of people who aren't... well as far right as him.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 08, 2011, 07:02:19 AM
Why hasn't anyone challenged Abbott? The Coalition has plenty of people who aren't... well as far right as him.

Because Abbott is the reason they nearly took down a first-term Government, and that Government got rid of a PM... the moderates put up with those right-wing nutbags because Abbott is an effective opposition leader. They know they can do well by appealing to the lowest common-denominator... nobody is better with that group than Abbott.

There are only 3 people who I see as being 'capable' of being leader, but each have their problems..

Malcolm Turnbull - a social liberal - considered a cultural elitist
Joe Hockey - tried before - a moderate - BUT is awful in interviews and has 'Beazley syndrome' - named after Kim Beazley, basically meaning that Hockey is probably a decent policy wonk and might be good at the job... but basically considered to be too 'nice'
Julie Bishop - Good parliamentary performer, a pragmatic moderate who will play right-wing ball... but she's not a leader.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Platypus on November 08, 2011, 07:28:20 AM
PM JBish?



Hmmn, lemme think about it.





































HAHAHAHAHAHA no.

;)


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 08, 2011, 04:47:13 PM
Of course... but for me she seems to be a 'Jim Hacker-like' compromise candidate.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Peter the Lefty on November 17, 2011, 03:48:11 PM
Sorry, another question from a clueless American: If the ALP is kicked out of power, would Penny Wong be considered a viable candidate to be the party's next leader, or are her approval ratings as bad as Gillard's?


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 17, 2011, 04:05:28 PM
Sorry, another question from a clueless American: If the ALP is kicked out of power, would Penny Wong be considered a viable candidate to be the party's next leader, or are her approval ratings as bad as Gillard's?

Senators can't be PM, if Aus is anything like other Westminster model countries.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Platypus on November 18, 2011, 12:00:22 AM
Senators can be PM, and it's happened before, with Gorton iirc. Or McEwen? One of the coalition 60s/70s gang.

Either way, it is highly, highly unlikely that she would be the leader. I haven't seen a specific poll on her favourability ratings, and I doubt one exists, but I'd expect the numbers would be very similar to the government's in general.



Title: Re: Australian Federal Political Discussion
Post by: Smid on November 18, 2011, 12:35:32 AM
Senators can be PM, and it's happened before, with Gorton iirc. Or McEwen? One of the coalition 60s/70s gang.

Either way, it is highly, highly unlikely that she would be the leader. I haven't seen a specific poll on her favourability ratings, and I doubt one exists, but I'd expect the numbers would be very similar to the government's in general.



Gorton is the correct answer. He was only in the Senate for a brief while as PM, though... He became PM following Holt's disappearance, and then contested the Higgins by-election (which was Holt's seat). This was somewhat easier as he was already a Victorian Senator and therefore on the electoral roll in Victoria (I don't know if he would have been able to contest the seat if he was a Senator in another state, to be a candidate, you must be on the electoral roll and not necessarily in the electorate in which you are a candidate, however there may be a rule that requires you to be on the roll in the same state... probably not, but possibly, my knowledge of the relevant legislation is not that detailed).

Section 64 of the Constitution (http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/general/constitution/chapter2.htm) states that Ministers need not be a Senator or Member of the House of Representatives, and I believe this would extend to the Prime Minister. Okay, okay - I put that somewhat out of context to prove the point, what it specifically says is that if a Minister is not a Senator or Member of the House of Reps, he or she must become one within three months of taking office as a Minister, although the point remains that they could be a Minister for three months, while not serving in the Parliament.

Edit: Going back to the initial question, if Minister Wong seriously wanted to contest for leadership of her party, the indication would be her contesting a House of Reps seat at the next election. You often see Upper House Members with leadership potential be moved down, just as part of a succession plan (which could be ten years off). Bronwyn Bishop is an example - there was talk of her becoming Opposition Leader and she moved from the Senate to HoR, but it never panned out. There are other examples, too, but that's probably one of the more well-known ones.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: BigSkyBob on January 21, 2012, 02:07:25 AM
One big step closer:

http://www.news.com.au/national/andrew-wilkie-turns-back-on-julia-gillard/story-e6frfkvr-1226250097725


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 21, 2012, 12:46:28 PM
Give her credit. Instead of a series of combustions a la John Major, she's managing CFIT. Abbott should just keep downing the popcorn and let this play out.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 21, 2012, 06:18:44 PM
So now the Speaker's the king maker? Does Aus have the convention that we do of the Speaker having to vote for the status quo (ergo, support the government in a confidence motion) should there be a tie on the floor of the House?


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Smid on January 25, 2012, 01:43:29 AM
Interesting speech to the Press Club (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=El-D--lMsoc&feature=share)


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: morgieb on January 25, 2012, 06:30:19 AM
Right now she looks like it, but once people look at their records, Abbott will probably lose.

The trouble is, Labor just don't know how to communicate. It's astonishing that we've fallen from 60/40 to 45/55 (and for a while it was 40/60) despite there being no economic crash. Also, Gillard's just as unpopular as Abbott is.



Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Peter the Lefty on February 22, 2012, 04:26:30 PM
I'm amazed that this thread isn't being swarmed with new posts after Rudd's resignation today.  He announced in a Washington DC hotel at a middle-of-the-night press conference that he's resigning as Foreign Minister over Gillard not rebuking Simon Crean's comment that he "wasn't a team player.". And Gillard's throwing open her leadership.  Rudd's now going back to Australia.  It's on. 


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 22, 2012, 05:00:40 PM
Hell yeah.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Michaelf7777777 on February 26, 2012, 01:36:15 AM
I don't think Labour are dead and buried for the next election as I think that Tony Abbott (similar to Don Brash in New Zealand circa 2004/2005) appeals to the lowest common denominater well but annoys enough people with his hardline stances that he'll find it very difficult to win an election (by my distant viewer understanding 2010 was close due to the recent sacking of Rudd and unpopular Labour State Governments in New South Wales and Queensland). I'm not sure who the better leader is between Rudd and Gillard for Labour as Rudd is more charismatic although Gillard has 'Home State Advantage' in 2 States (South Australia and Victoria) as well as possibly winning more votes among female voters.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: lilTommy on February 29, 2012, 09:31:22 AM
Gillard won, convincingly 71-31

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-27/live-blog-monday/3853898



Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: Peter the Lefty on March 01, 2012, 09:29:24 AM
I don't think Labour are dead and buried for the next election as I think that Tony Abbott (similar to Don Brash in New Zealand circa 2004/2005) appeals to the lowest common denominater well but annoys enough people with his hardline stances that he'll find it very difficult to win an election (by my distant viewer understanding 2010 was close due to the recent sacking of Rudd and unpopular Labour State Governments in New South Wales and Queensland). I'm not sure who the better leader is between Rudd and Gillard for Labour as Rudd is more charismatic although Gillard has 'Home State Advantage' in 2 States (South Australia and Victoria) as well as possibly winning more votes among female voters.
I have a feeling Abbot will win, but by a much narrower margin than what current polls would suggest.  I'm not in Australia and have never been there, but I'm just guessing.  And he'll probably be a very unpopular PM who will easily be beaten by Labor in 2016.  Just a (probably wrong) prediction.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 01, 2012, 12:10:58 PM
I don't think Labour are dead and buried for the next election as I think that Tony Abbott (similar to Don Brash in New Zealand circa 2004/2005) appeals to the lowest common denominater well but annoys enough people with his hardline stances that he'll find it very difficult to win an election (by my distant viewer understanding 2010 was close due to the recent sacking of Rudd and unpopular Labour State Governments in New South Wales and Queensland). I'm not sure who the better leader is between Rudd and Gillard for Labour as Rudd is more charismatic although Gillard has 'Home State Advantage' in 2 States (South Australia and Victoria) as well as possibly winning more votes among female voters.
I have a feeling Abbot will win, but by a much narrower margin than what current polls would suggest.  I'm not in Australia and have never been there, but I'm just guessing.  And he'll probably be a very unpopular PM who will easily be beaten by Labor in 2016.  Just a (probably wrong) prediction.

I'd be shocked if Tony lasted a whole term as PM without being knifed, but then again, he's been underestimated before.


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: redcommander on March 03, 2012, 04:38:02 AM
Why is Abbott viewed so unfavorably, and yet leading Gillard? Is it his social conservatism that turns people off?


Title: Re: Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 03, 2012, 05:40:42 PM
Why is Abbott viewed so unfavorably, and yet leading Gillard? Is it his social conservatism that turns people off?

His social conservatism is by-far out of step with Australia.
He was a pretty controversial Health Minister until Howard, from what I gather.
He's pretty gaffe prone.
He's not seen to have a plan.