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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Election Predictions => Topic started by: ElectionAtlas on July 20, 2011, 08:57:49 PM



Title: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: ElectionAtlas on July 20, 2011, 08:57:49 PM
Hi,
I've enabled the 2012 General Election Presidential Prediction Script here (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php)

Enjoy and let me know if you find any bugs.

the Primary Predictions for the Republican 2012 primary season will be available after the calendar gets nailed down.

Enjoy,
Dave

Compiled Prediction Map
()


Title: Re: 2012 Predictions for President (General)
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on July 20, 2011, 10:23:48 PM
:D  You're awesome.


Title: Re: 2012 Predictions for President (General)
Post by: Free Palestine on July 20, 2011, 10:38:01 PM
Will there also be prediction maps for Senate and Governatorial elections?


Title: Re: 2012 Predictions for President (General)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 21, 2011, 03:22:00 AM


Title: Re: 2012 Predictions for President (General)
Post by: ElectionAtlas on July 21, 2011, 06:04:02 AM
Will there also be prediction maps for Senate and Governatorial elections?

Yes - although I usually create those later as the candidates become more settled.


Title: Re: 2012 Predictions for President (General)
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 21, 2011, 12:13:04 PM
One small thing I noticed - When I tried updating my prediction, when I got to the review page, the paragraphs for the analysis are all bunched together and it does some funky things. For example:

Quote
My first prediction! :) It\'ll be interesting to look back on this prediction after the election and see how close I was - my bet is there will be one state I\'m completely off on. Let\'s see which it is. ;)\r\n\r\nThis scenario is Romney vs. Obama. I discounted running mates because right now I really have no clue who Romney would choose. I\'d be shocked if this election weren\'t a toss-up, but I just don\'t see economic conditions improving enough for Obama to be reelected. The economy debate will be huge for Romney.\r\n\r\nThe state I think will change the most is New Hampshire. Romney is a great candidate for this state, and is already spending resources there. Polls currently have him ahead outside the margin of error, and I expect him to be outside the margin of error on election day there as well.\r\n \r\nNot sure how close some states will be, like Washington and Arizona, so I just put this as


Title: Re: 2012 Predictions for President (General)
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on July 21, 2011, 04:11:39 PM
Making my map for if the election were held today; I'll wait until later for my final prediction.


Title: Re: 2012 Predictions for President (General)
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on July 21, 2011, 05:54:52 PM
I love you, Dave!


Title: Re: 2012 Predictions for President (General)
Post by: Phony Moderate on July 21, 2011, 06:37:03 PM
Thank you Dave! :)


Title: Re: 2012 Predictions for President (General)
Post by: Free Palestine on July 21, 2011, 07:08:09 PM
Will there also be prediction maps for Senate and Governatorial elections?

Yes - although I usually create those later as the candidates become more settled.

Cool.

All hail Dave!


Title: Re: 2012 Predictions for President (General)
Post by: ElectionAtlas on July 21, 2011, 10:32:58 PM
One small thing I noticed - When I tried updating my prediction, when I got to the review page, the paragraphs for the analysis are all bunched together and it does some funky things. For example:

Quote
My first prediction! :) It\'ll be interesting to look back on this prediction after the election and see how close I was - my bet is there will be one state I\'m completely off on. Let\'s see which it is. ;)\r\n\r\nThis scenario is Romney vs. Obama. I discounted running mates because right now I really have no clue who Romney would choose. I\'d be shocked if this election weren\'t a toss-up, but I just don\'t see economic conditions improving enough for Obama to be reelected. The economy debate will be huge for Romney.\r\n\r\nThe state I think will change the most is New Hampshire. Romney is a great candidate for this state, and is already spending resources there. Polls currently have him ahead outside the margin of error, and I expect him to be outside the margin of error on election day there as well.\r\n \r\nNot sure how close some states will be, like Washington and Arizona, so I just put this as

Hi - I don't see that - what browser/os are you using?

Also, I noticed that comments were disabled for everyone - I have removed the disable.

Enjoy,
Dave


Title: Re: 2012 Predictions for President (General)
Post by: tmthforu94 on July 22, 2011, 12:07:55 PM
I was using Firefox. I'll try Internet Explorer and see if it works.


Title: Re: 2012 Predictions for President (General)
Post by: Paul Kemp on July 22, 2011, 12:17:35 PM
And on the 20th day of July, He returned.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: WhyteRain on December 15, 2011, 08:07:11 AM
How do I get my prediction to show up here?


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: WhyteRain on December 15, 2011, 08:24:45 AM
Well, my prediction map is pretty easy to imagine, since I start with the 2004 results.  So here it is:

Give Obama all of the states won by Kerry in 2004, then subtract these six:  Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Maine.

That will give Obama 191 electoral votes; the other 347 will go to the Republican.

As far as I can see, that's the most optimistic (for the GOP) prediction at this site.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: nkpatel1279 on December 17, 2011, 01:51:37 AM
In his 2012 re-election bid, Obama wins all the Kerry 2004 states minus New Hampshire,Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Obama narrowly holds onto Oregon,Minnesota,Wisconsin,plus Iowa,Colorado,Nevada,and New Mexico. 232ev. To get to 270ev, Obama wins Michigan and Pennsylvania-narrowly plus either Virginia,Ohio,or North Carolina.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers on December 17, 2011, 12:35:38 PM
Come down to NV,CO, and OH.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 18, 2011, 03:13:14 PM
Surely Obama will win Ohio with less than 40%... ::)

Some people really don't think.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: MIKESOWELL on February 07, 2012, 08:21:20 PM
I still see Obama winning at least 330 electoral votes.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: Mechaman on March 06, 2012, 01:45:59 PM
Man some of these predictions make me sad.

Obama winning Arkansas?
Republicans winning Maine 2?

Really?


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: WhyteRain on May 16, 2012, 08:38:30 AM
In his 2012 re-election bid, Obama wins all the Kerry 2004 states minus New Hampshire,Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Obama narrowly holds onto Oregon,Minnesota,Wisconsin,plus Iowa,Colorado,Nevada,and New Mexico. 232ev. To get to 270ev, Obama wins Michigan and Pennsylvania-narrowly plus either Virginia,Ohio,or North Carolina.


My prediction, which is on here somewhere (I can't find it) also uses Kerry's 2004 performance:  Obama wins all of Kerry's states but six:  Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine.  Result:  Obama gets 191 EV.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on May 16, 2012, 03:16:49 PM
I still see Obama winning at least 330 electoral votes.

Please, extrapolate.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on May 28, 2012, 12:47:47 PM
In his 2012 re-election bid, Obama wins all the Kerry 2004 states minus New Hampshire,Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Obama narrowly holds onto Oregon,Minnesota,Wisconsin,plus Iowa,Colorado,Nevada,and New Mexico. 232ev. To get to 270ev, Obama wins Michigan and Pennsylvania-narrowly plus either Virginia,Ohio,or North Carolina.


My prediction, which is on here somewhere (I can't find it) also uses Kerry's 2004 performance:  Obama wins all of Kerry's states but six:  Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine.  Result:  Obama gets 191 EV.
What evidence do you have that Romney will win OR, MN, and/or ME? I can see NH, PA, and maybe WI, but unless Europe collapses, Romney won't win in a landslide (or at all).


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 08, 2012, 01:42:06 AM
I think I'll start doing my commentary on which forum predictions are most susceptible to change again.

As of 8 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 11 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 5 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
Missouri: 18 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 7 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 17 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 3 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 15 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 11 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
North Dakota: 3 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
New Hampshire: 7 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 11 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
South Carolina: 11 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Ohio: 15 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Mexico: 17 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Missouri: 18 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 08, 2012, 11:22:49 PM
As of 9 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 13 changes (+2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 5 changes (NC) to go from 40% R to 50% R
Missouri: 19 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 8 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 18 changes (+1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 9 changes (-1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 4 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 17 changes (+2) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 8 changes (-3) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 7 changes (-1) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
North Dakota: 4 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
Virginia: 7 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 8 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
South Carolina: 8 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nevada: 9 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 13 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Ohio: 17 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Mexico: 18 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Missouri: 19 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 09, 2012, 11:25:44 PM
Florida changed from 40% R to 50% R since my last post.

As of 10 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 12 changes (-1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 1 change (+6) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 20 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 9 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 20 changes (+2) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 10 changes (+1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 5 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 17 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 6 changes (-2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 5 changes (-2) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Florida: 1 change to go from 50% R to 40% R
North Dakota: 5 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 5 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 6 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
New Hampshire: 9 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 12 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Ohio: 17 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Missouri: 20 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Mexico: 20 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D

Yeah!  I managed to crack Dave's code and get access to the CD results for Maine and Nebraska

Nebraska 1: 6 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R.
Nebraska 2: 16 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 11, 2012, 11:10:30 PM
As of 12 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 17 changes (+5) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 3 changes (+2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 23 changes (+3) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 5 changes (+11) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nebraska 2: 20 changes (+4) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 9 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 21 changes (+1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 12 changes (+2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 7 changes (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 17 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 5 changes (-1) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 4 changes (-1) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Florida: 3 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Virginia: 4 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 1: 5 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 5 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
North Dakota: 7 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
New Hampshire: 9 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 12 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 17 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Ohio: 17 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 20 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Mexico: 21 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Missouri: 23 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R

The large number of changes for the predictions of Nebraska 1 make me wonder if I had made a mistake and it was actually Lean R as of the last time I checked, but there is no easy way to go back and recheck that, especially since the change in Nebraska 2 was in the opposite political direction.  Anyway, I am certain it is Lean R now.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on June 12, 2012, 03:00:58 PM
Surely Obama will win Ohio with less than 40%... ::)

Some people really don't think.
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?fips=39&action=statepred&submit=Go (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?fips=39&action=statepred&submit=Go)


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 17, 2012, 09:49:59 AM
As of 17 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

The past 5 days have clearly seen the prediction sentiment tilt in favor of Romney, tho not by a huge amount.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 7 changes (+4) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 3 changes (-2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nebraska 2: 22 changes (+2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 11 changes (+2) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 20 changes (-1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 12 changes (NC) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 10 changes (+3) to go from Strong R to Lean R
South Carolina: 3 changes (-2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 7 changes (+3) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Nebraska 1: 3 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 3 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Florida: 7 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Virginia: 7 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 10 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
New Hampshire: 11 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 12 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Mexico: 20 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nebraska 2: 22 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Missouri: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R


Colorado now requires 27 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D, up 10 from 5 days ago.  This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until either sentiment rebounds to the Democrats or if it keeps trending Republican, until the 64 changes needed to flip the state from 50% D to 40%D narrows to under 5%.

Ohio now requires 25 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D, up 8 from 5 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until either sentiment rebounds to the Democrats or if it keeps trending Republican, until the 29 changes needed to flip the state from 40% D to 30% D narrows to under 5%.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 25, 2012, 01:55:58 PM
As of 25 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

The past 8 days have seen little change in sentiment, but once the Obamacare ruling is released I suspect there may be change, so I decided to go ahead and post an update now.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 8 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 5 changes (+2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
New Hampshire: 11 changes (+2) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 21 changes (+1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 14 changes (+2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 13 changes (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
South Carolina: 6 changes (+3) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 7 changes (+4) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Nebraska 1: 5 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 6 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Florida: 8 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
North Dakota: 11 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 11 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 14 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Mexico: 21 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D


Missouri now requires 27 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R, up 3 from 8 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Democrats.

Nebraska 2 now requires 25 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R, up 3 from 8 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Democrats.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: Penelope on June 26, 2012, 04:56:00 PM
It would be nice if there were "Reset all to blank" and "Reset all" buttons for predictions.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 01, 2012, 09:50:43 PM

As of 1 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 285 predictions) to change.

The past 6 days have seen little change in sentiment, despite the Obamacare ruling.  Given the paucity of new polling, I suspect that may be the reason and people are generally waiting for data.

Nebraska 2 has returned to the list after being gone 1 time as as Ohio after being gone 2 time.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 8 changes (NC) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 1 change (-4) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (-1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 12 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 11 changes (-3) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 14 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 23 changes (-2 or more) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 changes (-5) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 12 changes (+1) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Nebraska 1: 1 change to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Lean R to Strong R
Florida: 8 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 11 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Hampshire: 12 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Virginia: 12 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 14 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 23 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R


New Mexico now requires 25 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D, up 3 from 6 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Republicans.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 02, 2012, 09:18:41 PM
As of 2 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 285 predictions) to change.

Two changes to the prediction map since yesterday.  Both Nebraska 1 and South Carolina have switched from Lean R to Strong R.  That change is why I'm posting again so soon.  Also New Mexico returns to the list after a brief absence.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 7 changes (-1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes (+3) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 23 changes (-1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 24 changes (-1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 10 changes (-1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 15 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 23 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 14 changes (+2) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 7 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Virginia: 14 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 15 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 23 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Ohio: 23 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Mexico: 24 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 17, 2012, 11:51:49 PM
As of 18 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 25 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 497 predictions) to change.

Not much movement in the predictions, but what little there has been has been in favor of Obama overall.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 5 changes (-2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 5 changes (-5) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 16 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes (-2) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 6 changes (-8) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 5 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
North Dakota: 16 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R



New Mexico now requires 28 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D, up 4 from 16 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Republicans.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: Darius_Addicus_Gaius on July 28, 2012, 12:54:06 AM
As of 18 July these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 25 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 497 predictions) to change.

Not much movement in the predictions, but what little there has been has been in favor of Obama overall.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 5 changes (-2) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 5 changes (-5) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 16 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes (-2) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 6 changes (-8) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 1: 2 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nevada: 5 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
North Dakota: 16 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 21 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nebraska 2: 24 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R



New Mexico now requires 28 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D, up 4 from 16 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Republicans.

Oh yea? Super interesting! What about real votes in November?


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on July 28, 2012, 01:05:33 AM
Oh yea? Super interesting! What about real votes in November?

They'll be counted in November.  I'll grant that tracking the fluctuations in the predictions is a rather introspective bit of navel gazing, which is why I don't do updates every day.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: ask_not on August 01, 2012, 07:00:05 PM
I think romeny will do good in south,   obama will get california i believe.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on August 01, 2012, 10:50:38 PM
As of 1 August these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 26 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the 511 predictions) to change.

New Mexico returns to the list as a result of a significant shift in favor of the Republicans.  North Carolina shows up for the first time.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 1 change (-4) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 4 changes (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nebraska 2: 24 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 13 changes (NC) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 17 changes (-11) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 3 changes (-2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Carolina: 25 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
North Dakota: 16 changes (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 15 changes (-6) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 1 change (NC) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 6 changes (NC) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Florida: 1 change to go from 50% R to 40% R
South Carolina: 1 change to go from Strong R to Lean R
Nevada: 3 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Nebraska 1: 4 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Ohio: 151 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
North Dakota: 16 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
New Mexico: 17 changes  to go from Strong D to Lean D
North Carolina: 25 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R



Nebraska 2 now requires 27 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R, up 3 from 16 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Democrats.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on October 02, 2012, 01:55:23 PM
It's been two months since I last looked at these.  but most notably, Florida which two months ago had a collective prediction pf 50%R had 30%R yesterday and a 30%D today.  It's not been a good couple of months for Romney.


Title: Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
Post by: ElectionAtlas on November 13, 2012, 10:45:11 AM
Preliminary scores for the 2012 Presidential Predictions have been posted.
Enjoy,
Dave