Talk Elections

Plenty of candidates decline to run because their chances weren't great. But how many were genuinely popular enough that their decision not to run could be construed as genuinely being uninterested in the Presidency? I'm thinking of General William Sherman (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Tecumseh_Sherman), the originator of the Shermanesque statement (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shermaneque statement), of which this might be true.

Mario Cuomo and Colin Powell are two that I can think off right away.

At least in 1992, Cuomo's decision not to run probably stemmed from Bush's seeming invulnerability. IIRC Powell was spooked by the possibly Bradley effect. I'm thinking of someone like Eisenhower if he had declined his draft.

RFK (in 1964)

Calvin Coolidge (in 1928 and possibly 1932)

Eisenhower (in 1948)

Any Democrats who would've had a better shot at nomination than Woodrow Wilson or Franklin Roosevelt in 1912 or 1932

Any Republican who would've had a better shot at nomination than McKinley in 1896

Any Republican who would've had a better shot at the nomination for Vice-President than Roosevelt in 1900

Well, the Kingfish was shot before he could run....

Ted Kennedy in '88
Colin Powell in '96 or '00 (or both, you know how the Republican party works)
Joe Biden in '04 MAYBE
Christie in 2012

Of course, my theory is that Coolidge knew the Great Depression was going to happen, so he chose not to run so they wouldn't blame him.


Anyway, I echo the Powel statements. He would have done very well against both Clinton and Gore.

Are we talking about people who NEVER ran for President, or people who chose not to run for President at a time when they had a good chance of winning (whether or not they ran another time)?

If the latter, there are probably a ton...Clinton 2004 would be the most recent, with the possible exception of Huckabee 2012.

If the former, yeah, Powell & Cuomo.

Qualified D's in 92.

Qualified R's in 80.

I think Ford could have pulled a Cleveland if Reagan decided not to run for some reason.

Mario Cuomo would have lost in 1992.

Maybe in the primaries.

Gore in 2008; Ted Kennedy in '68 (draft effort at the convention) or '76.

Cuomo decided later than everyone else (Dec. 1991) after Bush's numbers had started to decline seriously.

Nah, he'd win the primaries easily but his general election bid would have been Dukakis II. Bush would have swept the South and Perot would never be a major factor.

All of them lately, which is why you've ended up with this amazing (if underwhelming) list of quite improbable Presidents beginning with Evil Dick.

General Petraeus would have won quite easily against Obama if he had decided to run for 2012. He would of course had to have gotten through the primary though.

Howard Baker'88,  Mark Warner 2008, WJB 1912, MacArthur in 1948, Inouye in 88, John Danforth in 96.

No way for 1932. Even if he magically won the 1932 election, there's that little problem of him not living until inauguration day in 1933.

Mitch Daniels and Chris Christie, 2012

Reubin Askew in 1976.

Colin Powell in 2000.

Colin Powell in 2000.
Mario Cuomo...a lot of times. 
Al Gore in 2004. 
Bernie Sanders (primary challenge) in 2012. 
Russ Feingold in 2012 (same reason). 
Chris Christie in 2012 (never say never, unfortunately). 
Jim DeMint in 2012. 

lolno

Sanders could have won in '08.

Nah.

Mario Cuomo in '92.

Mike Huckabee is probably kicking himself for not running this year.

Cuomo.

Hillary Clinton in 2016.


Even if Huckabee managed to win the GOP nomination, he would have faced huge difficulties in the general election.  Imagine how damaged he would have been by the Akin mess, given his appointment of Boozman to be Arkansas's health director years ago.

I still think there is a 50/50 chance of Clinton running in 2016.

1968- Lyndon Johnson
1976- Ted Kennedy
1988- Ted Kennedy, Mario Cuomo, Gary Hart (w/out scandal), Llyod Bentsen
1992- Mario Cuomo, Llyod Bentsen
1996- Colin Powell
2000- Colin Powell, John Kerry, Howard Dean, Tom Daschle, Max Cleland, Sam Nunn
2004- Al Gore, Bill Nelson, Tom Daschle, Mac Cleland, Sam Nunn, Hillary Clinton
2012- Rudy Giuliani (even I'd consider it), Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, George Pataki, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie

I agree that either Mario Cuomo or Lloyd Bentsen likely would have won the Democratic Party's nomination and the presidency in 1992.

Considering how close the 2004 election was, I think Gore would have won against W. And he would have likely prevailed in the primary.

Colin Powell would likely have won in 1996. W was likely too powerful a General Election opponent in 2000.

I think Kennedy would have been too damaged by Chappaquiddick to ever become President.

Either Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan could have beaten Romney in the 2012 primary, and performed better in the General Election polls.

-Gore in 2008
-Hillary Clinton in 2004
-Powell in 1996
-Cuomo in 1992
-Ted Kennedy 1976/1988 (bigtime maybe)

Ted Kennedy 1976
Mario Cuomo 1992
Colin Powell 1996, 2000
Al Gore 2004
Hillary Clinton 2004

If they had run for another term
Teddy Roosevelt 1908
Calvin Coolidge 1928
Dwight Eisenhower 1960
Ronald Reagan 1988
Bill Clinton 2000

Gore would have won in 2004. 

1988 - Mario Cuomo and Howard Baker
1992 - Mario Cuomo
1996 - Colin Powell
2000 - Colin Powell and Christine Todd Whitman
2004 - Al Gore
2008 - Al Gore and Mark Warner

General Sherman in 1876, or probably any of 1880, 1884 or 1888