Talk Elections

ORIGINAL THREAD TITLE - Which Gay would you have voted for as President of Ireland?

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0814/martinm.html

Well... did i ever think this was going in a different direction... i was going to nominate Stephen Gately :P

McAleese is stepping down?

David Norris. *cough*

This.


Her term has expired.

I still can't believe that Fine Gael are actually running Gay Mitchell as their candidate, BTW. He hasn't got a chance.

When was the last time the Fine Gael candidate did have a chance? 1973?

Yes. But there was no election in 1983 nor 2004.

The short answer is that the election result has gone to their heads (or at least to the heads of the parliamentary party and national executive; McGuinness won among the city and county councillors in the electoral college).

They seem to believe that what happened in February was not primarily a rejection of Fianna Fáil's economic mismanagement; instead they think that the electorate have collectively fallen in love with Fine Gael and with all of their predilections, prejudices and general historical baggage.

Norris is back in and 3 TD's away from a nomination.

Also, I can change the title of this if people want to discuss the election?

TDs or Senators. It's hard though to figure out where those 3 nominations would come from. Shane Ross one presumes is gettable, but apart from that?

The county council option might still be a viable route though.

One could imagine him getting two more councils, and one more TD/Senator. (Someone said that if he got 19 that he'd be willing to be number 20) and not being able to make it.

When is the deadline anyway?

I'd figure people would be a little upset if that happened, and it would lead to reform in the nominating procedure.

Sort of on topic... Martin McGuiness is the Sinn Fein candidate, who is apparently "hated" by Gay Byrne. Any legit shot?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-15031025

I like McGuiness so I hope so, but he's likely very "transfer toxic" and would not win on any final ballot no matter who he was up against.

Running McGuinness is a wonderful piece of trolling from the Shinners, got to give them that.

First poll with all seven potential candidates (Millward Brown/IMS online for the Irish Independent, sample size 500, margin of error 4%)

David Norris 27%
Michael D. Higgins 18%
Martin McGuinness 15%
Mary Davis 15?%
Seán Gallagher 11%
Gay Mitchell 10%
Dana Rosemary Scallon 4%

Higgins should be the Labour guy ? Well, that's encouraging. :)

McGuinness VS Norris (if that were the final ballot) Norris would win. McGuinness VS Higgins, Higgins wins. VS Davis, Davis wins, etc

How about Norris VS Higgins, or, Norris VS Davis?

What are general election polls at? Has Labour taken the right short-term decision by joining FG in government?

Haha, Gay Mitchell.

Belgian - there was a poll (can't remember by who, but it was one of the fairly reputable ones) which had Labour at 20, with Fine Gael around 40, which is a pretty good result by both government parties.

The funniest thing is that Fianna Fáil have apparently dropped to 10% support. ;D

No, lemme get the link

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Irish_general_election#Opinion_polls

Anytime you want to find anything like this, type "wikipedia next general election ______" into google, and the answer will be there if anywhere.

wtf.

If FF's best shot at some degree of relevance is to be the junior partner in a government coalition, and if the party continues to have no real ideology, doesn't that mean it's doomed to disappear?

They self-refer as Ireland's "Republican Party". SF is clearly Republican too. If SF can convince people they are not terrorists, FF could disappear.

Given that he'd been in a comfortable lead until Norris re-entered the race, not so much.

Norris, if he were to be forced into a party, would be closer to Labour than any other, no?


Also, this:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0923/president1.html
Looks like the attacks are starting.

cough, cough, blatant plug (http://besy28.wordpress.com/2011/03/30/ireland/), cough, cough.

FF is traditionally a centrist party:

• cross-class appeal, although traditionally strong among smaller farmers and the urban working and lower middle classes, and weaker among the established, "old money" middle classes, and with a self-image of being outside the establishment,
• economically centrist and trade union-friendly although moderately socially conservative on sexual issues,
• fairly nationalist on Northern Ireland/Irish unity.

If it has an international parallel, it might be the Canadian Liberal Party...

Sinn Féin would be further to the left economically and its organisation on the ground is very weak in a lot of places. The memories of 69-94 would also be offputting to older voters. In short, I can't see it happening on a wide scale. I expect them to hold on and possibly recover a bit outside Greater Dublin. On the other hand, I didn't expect the scale of the clusterf**k over the Presidential election.

As far as the opinion polls go, 10% just strikes me as being too low at the moment. I'd think their current level of support is about 15% (at least before the aforementioned clusterf**k). The fact that Labour are in a government which is likely to be unpopular in the longer term, rather than leading the opposition, gives them some sort of a chance of recovery.

If the party gets below 10%, they risk not winning any seats due to the electoral system and their spread-out vote. That's more what I mean. I could see those centrist/left people going SF, but only if SF changes itself. The longer we get away from the Troubles, the more of a chance SF has to do better. The "problem" is that the more successful parties get, the more centrist voters they need to attract, the more centrist they become. Look at what happened to all the "Communist Politicians", MP's and such, in eastern Europe in 1987, and where they all were in 1992. Many of them were suddenly now right-wingers. That's because there was only one party, when you do have options, this happens to a lesser degree. By the time SF becomes electible to government, it will be different from the SF we know now. Think of how much the party has changed just during Adams term as leader.

Sinn Fein already forms part of the government in part of Ireland.

The number of eliminations and transfers required will make things complex. The big caveat about these assumptions is that they're based on the current levels of support.

Scallon's vote represents a very socially-conservative (though not necessarily economically right-wing) base. I don't see much of it going to Norris or McGuinness and very little to Higgins. The remainder should favour Mitchell over Gallagher or Davis, though perhaps not by enough to save him from the next elimination.

Mitchell's vote represents the most hard-core, traditionalist part of the Fine Gael base - authoritarian both socially and on law and order issues, hostile to Irish nationalism, economically right-wing, viscerally anti-Fianna Fáil for reasons long predating Haughey or Ahern. Some will go to Higgins as a coalition partner, some may go to Norris as a perceived way of stopping McGuinness. Gallagher's business background might make him superficially attractive, but his Fianna Fáil links would tell against him, so I'd see Davis as being the main beneficiary.

Gallagher's vote would probably favour Davis as a fellow independent (and the most likely other recipient of the "culturally Fianna Fáil" vote) moreso than Norris. McGuinness and Higgins would get smaller portions of the vote.

At this point, you're probably looking at an order of Norris-Davis-Higgins-McGuinness. McGuinness's anti-establishment vote would be most likely to go to Norris, the consciously left-wing portion would go to Higgins, and the nationalist/republican/ex-FF part would largely go to Davis and Higgins.

This might move Higgins ahead of Davis, and I'd expect her votes to favour Higgins over Norris. I'd also expect Higgins' votes - once you factor in transfers received - to marginally favour Davis over Norris, but not by enough to stop Norris.

He'd be close to the middle-class, secular liberal wing of Labour; I'm not sure how really economically left-wing he is (but then much the same can be said about the Labour Party these days...).


That's Fine Gael being Fine Gael, and in particular Gay Mitchell being Gay Mitchell. The more people see or hear of Mitchell, the lower his vote is likely to go. In any case, portraying yourself as the anti-Shinner candidate is pointless when it doesn't look as if the Shinner is likely to win and you yourself are in sixth place out of seven :D

There is no FF candidate?

I'll make two immediate quibbles about that posting, although most of it is sound enough:


Up until the 1970s and the arrival of Garret FitzGerald at the helm of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil would arguably have been the less closely associated of the two main parties with craven obeisance to the RCC, and from personal observation I don't see much correlation between church attendance and political loyalties.


It may have been a factor in working-class areas, but an equally important factor was the memory of Fianna Fáil being the party of social reform (urban housing schemes and slum clearance in the 1930s, the introduction of free secondary education, improvements in social welfare and pensions) and the fact that the party traditionally got on quite well with trade unions, as opposed to the cold hostility received from Fine Gael. Labour were starting from a weak base and up until 1992 were always committed to supporting coalitions in which Fine Gael would be the dominant partner.

Nope. At least not officially.

One of their MEPs, Brian Crowley, has been interested in running for a long time and Éamon Ó Cuív, grandson of de Valera, cabinet minister until February and self-appointed guardian of the traditional soul of FF, was also interested in running.

After the election defeat, the leadership's inclination was not to run an official candidate; an election campaign would have cost money the party no longer had with no chance of success. Then it emerged that Gay Byrne had been contacted by the party leader to run as an independent candidate with party support. This put the noses of the prospective party candidates out of joint, and they were knocked further out of joint when Byrne eventually declined.

Crowley eventually said that he wouldn't run, but there were a number of fractious meetings over whether to run a candidate, whether to allow TDs or Senators to lend support to other indepedent candidates, or to abstain from the nomination process altogether. The decision made two weeks ago, after reported threats of resignation from Ó Cuív (newly appointed as party deputy leader), was to abstain.

Then last week, with the renewed mention of a Norris candidacy and the expected arrival of McGuinness into the race, one of the FF Senators (many of whom are p'd off with the party leader because he tried to dump them in favour of (relatively) newer (relatively) shinier models) decided that he wanted to run as an independent candidate. After a couple of days of speculation, another fractious meeting was held at which the party leader got his way and there will be no FF candidate.

However...

Of the independent candidates, Gallagher (a panellist on the Irish edition of Dragon's Den) was a member of the Fianna Fáil National Executive until late last year and was briefly mentioned last year as a possible FF general election candidate in Louth, and Davis has a number of ex-FF backroom staff working on her campaign.

RedC poll for the Sunday Business Post, sample:1000

With only the five candidates officially nominated so far:

Michael D. Higgins 27
Martin McGuinness 20
Mary Davis 20
Gay Mitchell 18
Seán Gallagher 15

With all eight(!) potential candidates:

David Norris 21
Michael D. Higgins 18
Martin McGuinness 16
Mary Davis 13
Gay Mitchell 13
Seán Gallagher 11
Dana Rosemary Scallon 6
Labhrás Ó Murchú 1

Party support

FG 33 (down 8 since RedC's last poll in May)
Lab 16 (down 3)
FF 15 (down 1)
SF 15 (up 4)
Greens 2
Others 19 (up 8 )

RedC has tended to slightly overstate FG support in the past.

http://guthanphobail.net/index.htm (http://guthanphobail.net/index.htm) (in Irish but the basics should be clear).

I wish Red C would distinguish between the ULA-ers and "others". I wish all polling companies would do that, actually.

While I agree, the ULA are still officially two separate organisations, and I don't see the local affiliates of the CWI and the IS agreeing a merger soon. Indeed, I wonder how long it will be before we see a bust-up between the two. But either has more seats than the fecking Green Party.

There's also the question of how distinct the general public view the ULA as being from the likes of Wallace, McGrath, and other left-wing independents.

The two ULA leaders (of their respective parties) hate one another.

Also, do you think there'll be any breakdowns by party in the polls? for example?

FG supporters
20% Gay
40% Norris
10% Higgins

SF supporters
50% McGuinness
30% Norris

Labour supporters
30% Higgins
30% Norris

etc etc etc

The accompanying comment article in the paper (not online) says that Mitchell is attracting only a quarter of FG voters and that Norris, when added, gets almost as many from that party. No other details provided.

I understand RedC would have no issue doing so, but that they are simply following their terms of reference from SBP.

Looks like the 20 Oireachtas nominations route is beyond Norris now with Mattie McGrath's decision not to sign his papers (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0926/breaking8.html).

But he has just gotten the backing of Laois County Council; will probably get Dublin City Council later today as well.

Carlow and Roscommon CCs are meeting today as well and could nominate either Norris or Dana. Another 7 or so councils are meeting tomorow.

Looks like both will get sufficient council nominations in time.

Carlow split 5-5 on the Norris nomination. Chairman (FG) cast against - they've apparently nominated Dana now, giving her her 1st nomination.

Limerick and Roscommon CCs are about to hold meetings now.

South Dublin (which is actually Tallaght/Rathfarnham/Lucan/Clondalkin in case anyone actually knows Dublin geography) has voted 12-11 not to support Norris.

Do you think there'd be any backlash if Norris does not manage a nomination?

I would expect it to create more cynicism about the political system if the candidate who hasn't a hope in hell of winning (Dana) gets through while a candidate who has significant support (though he won't win) gets blocked.

Today's Council Meetings
Donegal 10am
Cork 10.30am
Waterford City 1pm
Westmeath 2pm
Offaly 2pm
Longford 4pm
Dublin City 6.45pm
Cavan 7pm

Donegal says Aye to Dana.

Cork on Norris
9 in favour
20 against
7 abstentions

Waterford on Norris
6 in favour
3 against
5 abstentions

Is that a nomination, or do abstentions count like nays?

yes, it's a nomination

Dana and Norris now on three each.

Westmeath and Offaly vote on Dana at 2. FG aren't strong enough on either of those councils to block her on their own (and in any case the negative votes are being aimed at Norris).

According to a Longford councillor on RTÉ radio this morning (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0927/president.html#audio) (4:30 in in the first clip), there are motions there to nominate both Dana and Norris, and if Dana already has four nominations by 4 o'clock, they may discuss Norris's nomination instead. However, FG hold 10 seats out of 21 in Longford so it may not get through anyway.

Offaly supports Dana, giving her the fourth council she needed.

Westmeath votes down Dana 10-9 but it doesn't matter at this stage.

Norris got Dublin: 30 in favour, 6 against, 11 abstain

So, with the candidature dealine passing today, we have our 7 candidates.

()
Mitchell (FG); Higgins (L); McGuinness (SF); Norris (i); Davis (i); Gallagher (i); Scanlon (i)

Who's going to win then?

I'm cautiously predicting Higgins wins on transfers. Although someone bland and inoffensive like Davis could do well.

By looks alone, I would vote for the confused old don first, then the older Ulster schemie, then the younger one, then the guy who at least has a beard, then the women (the one on the right first, probably, the other looks so bland she's just got to have something to hide). The child-molesting parish priest last.
I read their wiki articles, and while the beard moves ahead of the younger schemie and the woman on the right is even more unelectable than the priest, not much changes all in all.
I seem to be a fairly good judge of character based on this sample. ;D

Obviously all heads of state should look like confused old dons.

Ipsos/MRBI poll for the Irish Times, sample 1000, carried out face-to-face on Monday and Tuesday (after the first debate on Friday night, but before last night's debate), changes from last poll in July:

Michael D. Higgins 23 (+5)
Seán Gallagher 20 (+7)
Martin McGuinness 19 (new)
Mary Davis 12 (-)
David Norris 11 (-14)
Gay Mitchell 9 (-11)
Dana Rosemary Scallon 6 (new)

(In case anyone's wondering why the change figures don't add up, the last poll had Éamon Ó Cuív on 11).

More details at http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/1006/1224305330934.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/1006/1224305330934.html).

I re-coloured it to match the fact that Gallagher was FF right up until being FF became unpopular

My important and insightful commentary -


Good performance in the debates, generally popular,  remains the clear favourite. Don't see him losing, but who knows?


What? Oh, God, what? This is horrible news. I'd have thought Mary Davis would be the more popular of the two bland independents, but there you go. Ew. Ew. Ew.


A little higher than I would have thought, but fits into the category of "good, but not good enough", which is probably how McGuinness will perform. Needless to say, he's pretty transfer unfriendly.


Like I said, I'd expected Davis' and Gallagher's positions to be reversed, but meh. Respectable.


I'm supporting Norris, so I'm disappointed, but not surprised. Considering there's been a fully-fledged media assault on his campaign along with a pretty poor performance in the debates, this isn't surprising.


Hilarious.


Dana has replaced Gay Mitchell as the creepiest candidate running, and this is reflected in her poll performance. Still slightly disturbing that 6% of people would vote for her, but okay.

Apologies for the double post, but there's also apparently a new Red C poll out -


Pretty much confirms the Irish Times poll.

And here was I hoping that this would turn into the first election in Irish history between two totally unobjectionable candidates. I´m still supporting Norris btw. Oh, and LOL Gay Mitchell.

Poll Averaging
Higgins 24
Sean 21
Martin 17
Norris 13
Gay 10
Davis 10
Dana 5

He comes across as amiable and normal - how much substance there is is another matter - and he hasn't engaged in or been the subject of a lot of the mudslinging mainly emanating from Mount Street (FG HQ) and Talbot Street (Independent Newspapers HQ).

()


While it's more than well-deserved (for both Mitchell himself and for the clowns who've been "cheerleading"), I think Norris and Davis will be in his rear-view mirror. It will be a question of who falls fastest by the 27th.

Who did that poll? The graphic looks exactly like we get in Canada.

http://redcresearch.ie/about (http://redcresearch.ie/about)

Are they linked to Commies, or it is a rather strange name choice?

Commies? ROFL.


Morkeshing bullsh**t.

Party support from the MRBI poll (changes from last poll in July):

FG 35 (-3)
SF 18 (+8.)
Lab 17 (-1)
FF 16 (-2)
Greens 2 (-)
Others 12 (-2)

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1007/politics.html
Not directly related, but excellent news!!!

edit - oh someone beat me too it.
Still!! I hope this is the start of real left-right split in Ireland.

If it means Sinn fein being the largest party on "the left" then I don´t want it.

Sinn Fein will do well in the polls throughout the lifetime of this government, I think that's fairly clear, especially given the shattering of Fianna Fail's credibility. Whether that will translate into success at a General Election...

I think that has been pretty clear since the election.. I just wanted to make my position clear. And besides, I don´t consider SF a ´left-wing´ party. At least they aren´t in the way the Labour party - despite its conservatism - or the ULA are.

This. Oh God, this.

e: There's been a lot of speculation that Sinn Féin's numbers will go down somewhat once the Presidential campaign's over and Martin McGuinness has gone home. There's probably some truth to that, although Sinn Féin seem to have succesfully sucked up a lot of the FF vote.

Given that Sinn Féin is the opposition party that isn't Fianna Fáil (and also the republican party that isn't Fianna Fáil), it's not surprising that it's polling well.

This. ^

I'd take Fianna Fail or Fine Gael.

What do you have against SF?

IRA.

How long a history lesson do you want?

Anyway, I still maintain that SF is not really a left-wing party. The similarties between it and what Fianna Fail were in the 20s are, to me at least, very striking.

I would kindly suggest keeping that kind of 'debate' about Northern Ireland out of my domain.

(Some posts have been deleted, naturally)

I'd like to note for posterity that Dana has temporarily become the most talked-about candidate in the race.

How's that?

Almost broke down in a debate while making a bizzare statement denying an "allegation" which she wouldn't specify. Two days later, it emerges that her brother (I think) is accused of child abuse.

It doesn't really matter since she's the fringiest of fringe candidates, but it was the most reported part of the debate. That and Martin McGuinness being relentlessly harangued (even though it was on RTÉ [/obscure Irish political in-joke]) by the moderator on his IRA past.

Unlike this forum, people are allowed to discuss the IRA in Ireland, and I am not alone in my feelings about who the "wrong" side in the IRA VS UK war was. While 50%+1 in Ireland will disagree with me, and prevent McGuinness from winning, I am confidant that he would take 35%-40% if he were on a final ballot with Gay Mitchell.

Is Higgins still looking on course to win?

I think I'd vote something like 1. Higgins 2. Norris 3. Davis.

From what I've seen, Higgins looks like a great person. I'd probably put him #1 as well. I think that with the controversial around Norris and McGuinness, that there's a good chance that many others would agree with me, and, that if the final ballot were Higgins-Norris or Higgins-McGuinness, that Higgins would win easily. The only problem for him is if Gallagher gets to the final ballot

There's allegedly new Red C figures up on Politics.ie. No confirmation on whether they're accurate yet, and done before the debates, where Gallagher got grilled quite a bit, so maybe he's peaked, but uh... Gallagher leads with 39%.

I am going to flee the country.

RedC carried out on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (sample 1,000, changes since last RedC poll):

Gallagher 39% (+18%)
Higgins 27% (+2%)
McGuinness 13% (-3%)
Mitchell 8% (-2%)
Norris 7% (-7%)
Davis 4% (-5%)
Scallon 2% (-3%)

Jesus wept. If Gallagher gets in it would be just typical. Gah.

I think I´m going to return to my state of utter bafflement at the personality judgements (as well as other types of judgements) of the Irish people.

The way I look at it is this:

Dana has imploded and is now coming across as being as firmly connected to reality as Mother Bernadette Sinéad Jah O'Connor.

Davis hasn't so much imploded as developed a slow puncture. Running what looks to be an extremely well-financed campaign and describing one of our would-be oligarchs as your "mentor" is not going to win you the non-/anti-politics vote.

Norris has descended into self-parody mode and has turned the dial on the Queeny Joycean Scholar schtick up to 11. It may well appeal to the hipster vote in Dublin but it passes by everyone else.

Mitchell is a horrible candidate who has run a horrible campaign aided and abetted by the arrogant jackass wing of his own party, and has alienated all but his own ultras as a result. (And the fact that the ultras are in single percentage figures should make the Fine Gael hierarchy fear what might be coming down the line at the next general election.)

McGuinness has been subjected to an over-the-top campaign by the broadcast and national print media, which might well get him some of the "f*** you" vote on election day, but there's still an upper limit on the SF vote by those who remember 69-94 even if they don't share the foaming-at-the-mouth stance of the Sunday Independent & Co.

Higgins has performed well, but being the de facto government candidate won't benefit him and in the TV3 debate he may have looked distinguished but he also looked old.

I'm not personally impressed by Gallagher, I don't think he'll make a particularly good President, but I can see how he's picking up the "best of a bad lot" vote beyond just the ex-FF base. I don't see him being beaten at this stage.

After an all too brief respite, I'm again developing "Fianna Fáil fatalism", where I glumly and resignedly accept that FF will almost always find a way to win an election. What better candidate for the highest office in the land than a third-rate television personality and gombeen businessman?

The one reason for optimism is that this poll was apparently taken before the Primetime debate in which Gallagher did fairly poorly, but I now fully expect us to have a Fianna Fáil President come November. Again.

EDIT: I'm also probably going having to switch my first preference to Higgins now. Oh well.

To me, it's Gallagher VS Higgins. The horserace is on.

If you want to find a way to win an election right after that drubbing... probably no better type of candidate.
It also helps that he makes Davis look like a weak female milquetoast copy of himself, of course. What with the born blind stuff and all.

Why? As long as he's rated above Gallagher and McGuinness on your ballot, it probably doesn't matter if he's first, second, third, fourth or fifth, no?

Is Michael D one of those guys like Wilford Brimely who came out of the womb looking old?  I was pretty surprised he is only 70.

Anyone know if there are any polls that have a regional breakdown?

He's always had that hairstyle for as long as I can remember, although the colour used to be a reddish-brown.

()

It matters, I think, that he also looks older than the others in the same age group - Norris is only a couple of years younger but is well-preserved in comparison, McGuinness is about a decade behind him but looks much younger, Davis has done a reverse Dorian Gray with her posters, and Mitchell - well, you know what they say about the undead...


http://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/SBP-President-Poll-Report-16th-Oct-2011.pdf (http://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/SBP-President-Poll-Report-16th-Oct-2011.pdf)

MRBI also does regional/age-group/social class breakdowns, because the Irish Times polling analysis refers to them in the accompanying articles, but they aren't published.

New Red C poll. Yeah.

Gallagher 40% (+1)
Higgins 26% (-1)
McGuinness 13% (nc)
Norris 10% (+3)
Mitchell 6% (-2)
Dana 3% (+2)
Davis 2% (-1)

I'm planning a form of avant-garde protest, in which when Gallagher's announced the winner I'll set my house on fire and then shoot myself as an artistic statement.

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times, carried out Monday to Wednesday:

Gallagher 38
Higgins 26
McGuinness 17
Mitchell 8
Norris 6
Davis 3
Scallon 2

Behaviour & Attitudes are, IIRC, usually garbage, but those figures seem to align more or less with the Red C poll.

Why is Gallagher not reported as the FF Candidate? He only quit FF when FF stopped being cool.

Actually, FF stopped being cool in the autumn/winter of 2008 (after a brief outpouring of relief when Ahern finally left - yes, folks, Biffo Cowen actually had a honeymoon during the spring and summer of 2008). Gallagher left at the beginning of this year/end of last year.

This issue, along with a lot of others about Gallagher's past business dealings and links with FF, has been raised over the last week. The trouble is that the same journalists and newspapers who are raking over this now have raked over so much irrelevant - but over-the-top and prurient - crap about other candidates over the last few weeks that Gallagher seems to have been "immunised" against the stories because people have switched off.

File under: 'well done guys!'

The general standard of political journalism here is pretty awful - regurgitation of party press briefings, groupthink, and the grinding of old political axes.

I've explained earlier why I think Gallagher appeals to people: the other candidates are either potential embarrassments or, in Michael D.'s case, a de facto Government candidate, and a positive though vapid campaign coming from a candidate who seems likeable and competent and is notionally independent (and definitely independent of the current Government) will gain support from a politically-disillusioned public. Personally, I consider the man to be an empty suit but he will be largely harmless in the job.

Party support figures from the two polls, incidentally (the RedC ones are hidden deep in the bowels of the print article):

B&A: FG 37 SF 19 Lab 15 FF 15 Greens 1 Oth (inc. ULA) 13
RedC: FG 31 Lab 17 SF 16 FF 14 Oth (inc. Greens and ULA) 22

IPSOS/MRBI for the Irish Times (changes in comparison with last poll):

Gallagher 40% (+20%)
Higgins 25% (+2%)
McGuinness 15% (-4%)
Norris 8% (-3%)
Mitchell 6% (-3%)
Davis 3% (-9%)
Scallon 3% (-)

In any other country Gallagher being in first place would be inexplicable. Here it seems like the natural order is being restored.

Yes and No.

On the one hand, FF as currently consituted are running in the same polls at best in joint third, at worst in fifth if you count "others" as a single block. There's also the fact that the race was turned by the press into an unpleasant and personalised demolition derby, and that Gallagher was left as the last candidate standing against a candidate from one of the parties in a government of which more people disapprove than approve.

On the other hand, there is also a large segment of what might be described as "cultural" Fianna Fáilers; people who would have a regard for the party and for what it was before Haughey, Ahern and the Drumcondra Mafia got their paws on it. SF and Labour would both be hoping to pick up votes in that pool but aren't succeeding this time around.

There are also, frankly, a lot of people who did well out of the bubble and who would dearly like it back (and any country is well-stocked with lots of similarly desperate and/or short-sighted people).

Both groups seem to have gravitated to Gallagher. Returning to FF would be a different story.

Ireland is a beautiful country and I love the people, but they have all the political judgment of a stick of butter.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/23/david-norris-ireland-presidential-race

...

...

...

Fail.

Haha, yes, I saw that a couple of hours ago and I couldn't believe the idiocy.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/oct/23/martin-mcguinness-slumps-polls-presidency (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/oct/23/martin-mcguinness-slumps-polls-presidency)

is not a whole lot better and doesn't have the excuse of being a magazine piece. But then, as I said above, with some journalists, everything must take second place to political vendettas.

Gallagher has a Father Ted moment in the latest debate.

We will see what effect - if any - it will have.

Yeah, Gallagher did really awfully.

Gay Mitchell also threw a tantrum, not that it matters. :P

EDIT: Seriously though, that debate was great fun. Pity I didn't 't have any popcorn and the fact that Dublin's rapidly disappearing underwater means I couldn't go out and get any.

Missed the first 40 minutes, including the Father Ted moment, due to my train home from work being delayed by said floods.

Summary of debate here (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1024/president_tracker.html#article). The debate itself may be up on RTE's player service but I'm not sure of the global availability.

Jeez, I don't think Ive ever seen a debate that focused so much on the polls and the campaign itself.

Very efficient take down of Gallagher by McGuinness.

Gallagher whinging on the radio this morning that all the hard questions last night were part of a Sinn Féin conspiracy and hinting that the businesswoman who'd asked him about the money resting in his account was also politically involved.

At which point the said businesswoman rang the radio show from her car and started asking more awkward questions.

Car crash radio.

As good as Richard Keys and the 'dark forces'?

Gallagher's candidacy rapidly turning into a hilarious trainwreck is fun to watch. I hope it's not too late.

McGuiness shall pip him on Higgins' transfers. ;D

Yeah, been following some of the play by play over at politics.ie.   Gallagher is not doing himself any favors and his tactic of going after Sinn Fein will backfire- transfers.   Gallagher is effectively being linked to the FF culture of corruption and cronyism. For a largely ceremonial office, the election of SG would really send the wrong message. I'd have to think that Michael D. will win this.

Look at http://www.rte.ie/radio/ (http://www.rte.ie/radio/) and select The Pat Kenny Show's edition for 25/10. Fun really starts about 25 minutes in.

Gallagher has also decided against making any more public appearances today. He has a couple of interviews on talk radio, at least one of which is prerecorded. Irish broadcasting legislation means that a moratorium on coverage of the election kicks in at noon tomorrow until the polls close at 2200UTC on Thursday (other than anodyne coverage of party leaders and candidates voting on polling day, turnout, etc.) so it looks like an effort to run down the clock.

http://www.newstalk.ie/2011/news/higgins-tops-post-debate-newstalk-poll/ (http://www.newstalk.ie/2011/news/higgins-tops-post-debate-newstalk-poll/)

Gallagher collapses to 20%, Higgins in high thirties.

A "listener poll"? With breakdowns for all the counties? Looks dodgy to me.

It's also taken yesterday, after a little-heard Newstalk radio debate. ;)

Still, that might well end up being the actual results if Gallagher continues to furiously dig himself into a hole full of brown envelopes and dodgy insinuations.

So who gets more transfers on a Gallagher-Higgins final ballot?

Specifically who gets McGuinness' transfers

What was Gallagher's Father Ted moment?

Gallagher's campaign had previously claimed that he never solicited money for FF.  In the early part of the debate McGuinness said that Gallagher was up to his neck in FF and their dealings and that he had spoken to a businessman who said Gallagher had personally collected a check of 5000 euro on behalf of FF.

The 2:34 mark is where he puts the foot in his mouth by collecting envelopes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTMzZAtlLt4

The fact is that I dont think this story to be particularly bad in and of itself.  However, he has been so desperate to keep the FF stink off him that he has now been caught in a series of lies. Through several of his dealings and his political activity it is clear that he was caught up in the cronyism and basic corrupt political culture.

Additionally there are questions about an 80,000 euro loan that he paid to himself from his own companies funds.  Gallagher claims this to be honest mistake.

According to this map

()

Gallagher is stronger/est up in the North. Where McGuinness does well, Gallagher does well. This means one of two things:

McGuinness voters would naturally go for Higgins, which is why Gallagher is so strong in comparison.

or

McGuinness voters are torn between him ad Gallagher.

Whichever one is true will determine the winner

What it means is "Labour has always been very weak up northwest".

It's a phone-in poll AFAIK. Makes the "Quantum Research" ones in the Sindo look scientific.

Even if we were to take this seriously, Gallagher would need to be winning Louth (where he lives), Monaghan (where he was born) and Cavan (where he grew up) at a canter.

He's drawing Cavan with McGuinness, level in Louth with Higgins and Norris(!), and McGuinness is winning Monaghan.

Given that Gallagher is now trying to out-Mitchell Gay Mitchell in terms of shroud-waving and making allegations of dark Shinner plots to do him down, I think we can make an educated guess who won't get them.

Yeah, I had a long post that timed out making that point. He also clumsily made allusion to sinister forces along the border.   Like he is from there and it struck me as really tone deaf. Listening to Gallagher's Pat Kenny radio interview,  I found it a inarticulate bunch of rambling nonsense.  Chock full of contradictions and malapropisms.  IMO, Gallagher is sunk and I think Higgins wins this easily.

After these past two days you will not see the transfers. It is in Sinn Fein's interest to defeat any FF or their proxy candidates. McGuinness never had a path and still does not to win this.  However, you have to go out there and attempt to broaden your appeal and remain relevant on a 32 county level.  This will help the strategy of being the main opposition party.

Lastly, on that map.   Gallagher would have to do better where people actually live.  Like Leitrim has what 12,000 votes?

So if Higgins is the most transfer friendly, how high can Gallagher get on the first ballot and still lose?

A very rough guess would be somewhere in the mid-30s, assuming that Higgins is within about 5 or 6% of him.

If I was making a wild guess now:

Gallagher 30
Higgins 26
McGuinness 16
Norris 12
Davis 7
Mitchell 5
Dana 4

(I think both Norris and Davis as independent candidates might pick up support from slippage by that part of Gallagher's vote who were looking for a non-party candidate to vote for. Mitchell might have been able to benefit if he hadn't made such a complete horse's ass of himself on Monday night.)

Yep, and very obviously so. Father Ted with the accent of Father Dougal.


Repeatedly laying into McGuinness for refusing to "condone" various IRA murders, until Pat Plank took pity on him and fed him the right verb, was a particular highlight. He may be street-smart, but he comes across as not being much of an abstract thinker.


I'd hope so but there are a lot of low-information voters out there.


22K or so.

I, too, condemn SF for not condoning enough IRA executions of foreign (English) terrorists. ;D

Seems to me like Higgins still has the edge then

It looks like Gallagher's toast, but never underestimate the stubbornness of the gombeen people. There's probably a not-inconsiderable portion of the electorate who feel Gallagher's being bullied.

Okay, I'm being paranoid. Getting antsy. *paces*

To the Irish members of this board:
Who are YOU voting for?

1. Norris
2. Higgins

So, effectively Higgins.

How will the vote counting process go in terms of multiple eliminations happening at the same time?  Is there a deposit threshold in this election and if so what is it and does that play a role in the elimination rules?  Is there a clear standard?  I seem to recall there being some inconsistency from the Dail by-elections in 2009 and asking why certain multiple eliminations weren't done.

Candidates need to reach 1/4 of the quota (12.5%) to have €200K of their expenses refunded.

They get eliminated one by one unless there are two candidates whose combined vote is lower than the third lowest and neither of whom could not reach the reimbursement level.

Gallagher, Higgins and McGuinness should be safe on that score; Norris may still scrape it.

RTE One will be broadcasting special election programmes at 1100 (0600 EDT), 1500 (1000 EDT) and 2030 (1530 EDT) with RTE News broadcasting the whole thing from start to finish on Friday as well. BBC Parliament do not appear to be simulcasting anything (but that might change as today goes on) so if you do not want to be tied to a computer and you live in the UK you can either a) have a aerial that points towards the Irish Republic or b) tune to channel 0160 on Sky for RTE Radio 1, 0164 for RTE 2FM or if you fancy your Gaelic skills 0166 for RTE R na G

Can´t vote, currently not in the country. However, I would have voted -
1. Norris
2. Higgins
****GAP****
3. Mitchell
4. Davis
5. Gallagher
6. McGuinness
***CHASM***
7. Dana

We should also use this thread for the results of the Dublin West by-election, which is also today.

I've edited the title

So basically all our Irish members vote the same way? Cool.

And are clearly not remotely representative of the Irish electorate.

Otherwise the impending Norris landslide is going to take the media by surprise.

Anyone have a call on the by-election? who will take it?

Four are members of Fingal County Council, odd, anyone know how each are perceived?: David McGuinness of Fianna Fáil,
Eithne Loftus of Fine Gael,
Patrick Nulty of the Labour Party,
Ruth Coppinger of the Socialist Party,
non-council candidates:
Paul Donnelly of Sinn Féin,
Roderic O'Gorman of the Green Party,
Peadar Ó Ceallaigh of Fís Nua

and 6 independents! holy thats a crowded field. There are two left members one labour the other Socialist; any chance another from either party takes it? or will FF win back the seat? Could the greens get back into the Dail (have the Irish forgiven them yet?) or is there any SF support in Dublin West?

At the last general election left-wing parties won over 50% of the vote (one of only three or was it four? consitutiences where this occured). So this will be a left seat, the question is really whether it will be a government or opposition-socialist gain (at least that´s the vibes I get from politics.ie. Which is not, however, the most reliable of sources).

()

...except perhaps in their view of Dana.

The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/27/irish-presidential-elections-polls) mentions a "poll" with Higgins on 41%, but it looks like they're talking about this (http://ballotbox.ie/), which looks pretty meaningless in terms of the actual election.

Random questions:

1. Why is Gay Mitchell such a crappy ass candidate and who are traditional FG voters going to because he sucks balls?
2. Why the hell is Gallagher doing so well all of a sudden?

Apart from the highly intelligent and ever-perceptive Patrick Barkham of the Guardian.

Argh. Perennially disappointed with the Beeb's (non-existent) election coverage.

Which, given the number of Irish citizens here, is not exactly excusable...

1 Higgins
2 Norris
3 McGuinness
4 Davis
5 Dana
6 Gallagher
7 Mitchell

Referendums: Spoiled vote/No

I'm not Irish but I'd put McGuinness #1 and Higgins/Norris 2/3

It was my understanding that a large amount of Gallagher's support was coming from traditional FG voters.  I would hope that they have bailed after seeing how tied up in FF Gallagher actually was and go toward Higgins.

As an interloping American I would go

McGuinness
Michael D

Davis
Norris
Mitchell
Dana
Gallagher

[reposted from another place]

Unconfirmed alleged exit poll:
Sean Gallagher 32%
Michael D Higgins 27%
Martin McGuinness MP MLA 20%
Senator David Norris 11%
Gay Mitchell MEP 6%
Mary Davis 2%
Dana Rosemary Scallon 2%

So, with transfers, would this tend to sink Gallagher?

Probably, but I'm almost certain there's been no exit polling done, so...

Hmm, yeah saw that quoted and see its from  irishcentral.com .... which is an Irish American website.  It doesnt say anything about where it comes from or who conducted etc.

There are a lot of things floating around so I would say take that with a grain of salt.

I think one of the effects of the last few days will be to polarise opinion about Gallagher - he won't get transfers that he might have gotten as a "genuine" independent.

It's not even so much the FF connections, as the fact that the connections are to the sleazy end of FF (soliciting party donations from someone you apparently know to be a convicted criminal and fuel-smuggler, looking for a personal €5K upfront from local amateur sports clubs to help them fill out national lottery grant applications).

Official Results Website (http://presidentialelection.ie/index.php)

Counting has begun, and if super early indications are anything to go by Higgins may be a bit ahead of Gallagher on first preferences, and one would presume he'd hold or build on that through subsequent counts.

I think Higgins will top first preference by a decent margin and run away with this. 

Interested to see what results will be on referendum- which are more important.

I thought with Gallaghers decline that Mitchell and Norris would pick up some support but from vote leaking out they are both doing horribly.  Martin McGuinness #'s look to be pedestrian (17%?) but more than enough for 3rd.

Irish Times's Live Blog (http://www.irishtimes.com/indepth/vote2011/liveblog/53f8c00165)

On referenda (which won't be counted until after the Presidential votes), it looks like Judicial pay will pass; but Oireachtas Enquiries could fail.

I've not seen anything from Dublin West yet on the by-election.

Dublin West seems to be in descending order:

Coppinger (Soc)
Nulty (Lab)
McGuinness (FF)
Loftus (FG)
Donnelly (SF)

We non-Irish seem to be more nationalist than the Irish.

My fantasy ballot (not changed due to recent Gallagher shenanigans)

1) Higgins
2) McGuinness
3) Norris
4) Gallagher

Do Irish citizens care about the Irish presidential election?

Yes. I think so. Maybe not as much as for other political offices, but it does I think exercise quite a few people who their national representative is. The best quanitative guide to your question though is probably turnout, which will probably be around 50%.

(The 2009 local/European elections had a turnout of 58%. This year's General was 70%.)

68% of boxes now open in Dublin West. Tallies: Nulty Lab 25%, McGuinness FF 22%, Coppinger SOC 20%, Loftus FG 15%, Donnellly SF 8%, O Gorman GP 5%

100% tally in Dublin West

Lab 24.3%
FF 21.7%
Soc 21.0%
FG 14.8%

Other figures not given.

It certainly looks from the Irish Times live blog that everyone thinks Higgins is going to win.  Norris has apparently conceded to him already.


I'd imagine that Labour's lead will only widen with transfers; is that right?

On FF, certainly. On the Socialists, likely but no certainty.

Change on FPV 2011
Lab -4.7% FF +5.1% Soc +2.0% FG -13.4%
Swing from Lab to FF of 4.9%

Labour though will get the vast bulk of the FG transfers so it won´t matter (though Coppinger will probably finish second due to SF transfers).

How about FF's transfer, should the Socialists pip them on transfers. Is it conceivable that Coppinger catches Nulty on those?

I really doubt it. There will be a lot of non-transferables. The people who still vote FF are those people who think that having Sean Gallagher in the aras is a good idea and those people tend not to heavily preference trotskyites. (This is Brian Lenihan´s vote after all and as far as I know, he dominated in Castleknock, which is the posh end of this constituency).

Okay.

- link (http://www.irishtimes.com/indepth/vote2011/liveblog/53f8c00165)

>: Why has FF done so well?

Looks like Michael D will not be the shortest Head of State in the world. He's 5'4" apparently - giving him an inch on Kim Jong-il.

Dmitry Medvedev is also a reported 5'4"; with Sarkozy and Berlusconi but an inch taller.

The Plain People of Ireland are a forgiving and forgetful bunch.

They are out of government, and Labour is in. Why shouldn't they rebound just a tiny little bit?

Some cool exit poll data.

Only 15% of those who vote FG in the last Dail election voted for Gay Mitchell. Higgins leads such voters with 40ish, and Gallagher is in second.
Gallagher not just won a majority of those who voted FF last time around (yeah well duh), but also came an easy first among those who voted FF in 2007.

And our first few by-constituency first count results.

1541 Dublin South-West RESULT: Higgins 40.1%; Gallagher 22%; McGuinness 16.6%; Norris 9.6%; Mitchell 6.5%; Davis 3.1%; Scallon 2.1%

1539 Dublin Mid-West RESULT: Higgins 40.3%; Gallagher 22.1%; McGuinness 15.9; Norris 10.2; Mitchell 6.5%; Davis 3.1; Scallon 2%

()

Kildare North RESULT: Higgins 45.8%; Gallagher 26.9%; McGuinness 8.8%; Norris 8.1%; Mitchell 5.5%; Davis 2.8%; Scallon 2.1%

Yeah, I get a feeling this count is going to be as dull as Gay Mitchell.

Looks like there's no chance FG will be able to reclaim their election expenses. ;D

Dublin West by-election FIRST COUNT: Patrick Nulty 8,665; David McGuinness 7,742; Ruth Coppinger 7,542; Eithne Loftus 5,263; Paul Donnelly 3,173; Roderic O'Gorman 1,787; Barry Ceasar Hunt 775; John Frank Kidd 311; Gerry Bermingham 185; Brendan Patrick Doris 95; Jim Tallon 73; Beeny Cooney 51; Peadar O Ceallaigh 40
Quota 17,852, so "9 and 5" was accurate.

Dublin West RESULT: Higgins 43.2%; Gallagher 24.1%; McGuinness 11.9%; Norris 10.1%; Mitchell 5.3%;
Davis 3.3%; Scallon 2%

Dublin South RESULT: Higgins 51.1%; Gallagher 20%; Norris 9.8%; Mitchell 7.3%; McGuinness 6.5%; Davis 3.3%; Scallon 2%

Gerry Adams said Michael D Higgins will be a fine President.
He will have Sean Gallagher's full support as President and Gallagher sincerely thanks him for a positive campaign.
Eamon Gilmore is thrilled that Michael D Higgins will be the next President of Ireland.

Finally a result from Real Ireland.

Donegal North East RESULT: McGuinness 32.2%; Gallagher 28.2%; Higgins 23.1%; Scallon 6.7%; Mitchell 4.9%; Norris 2.8%; Davis 2.1%

Quite some discrepancies... not that Donegal is representative of rural Ireland, of course. (Cue second Lisbon referendum :D )

Also two more Dublin results. Yawnie.

Dublin North (newish middle class suburbia cum whatever rural parts of county Dublin there actually are):

Higgins 44.8 Gallagher 25.5 McGuinness 10.4 Norris 9.8 Mitchell 4.4 Davis 3.2 Scallon 1.8

Dublin Central (city centre; mixture of working-class areas and some older middle-class areas, flatland, and some new dockland apartment developments; large immigrant population):

Higgins 44.0 Gallagher 18.4 McGuinness 16.1 Norris 12.9 Mitchell 5.0 Davis 2.9 Scallon 2.7

Dublin South East (embassy belt plus bourgeois bohemia with a large helping of flatland):

Higgins 53.5 Gallagher 13.7 Norris 11.7 Mitchell 8.2 McGuinness 7.5 Davis 3.2 Scallon 2.2

Dún Laoghaire (very wealthy but socially liberal suburbia with some working-class presence):

Higgins 52.5 Gallagher 17.7 Norris 10.2 Mitchell 7.0 McGuinness 6.9 Davis 3.5 Scallon 2.2

Tipperary South (rural Real Ireland; mixture of prosperous dairying farmland with a number of small industrial towns):

Higgins 35.4 Gallagher 34.1 McGuinness 13.0 Mitchell 7.8 Norris 4.4 Scallon 3.0 Davis 2.4

Donegal South West (very rural, fishing/small farming, large Irish-speaking areas):

Gallagher 32.3 McGuinness 28.4 Higgins 23.1 Scallon 5.8 Mitchell 5.3 Scallon 3.0 Davis 2.1

Dublin South Central (very working class with a lot of 1930s-50s housing developments, but also Mitchell's former constituency):

Higgins 39.9 McGuinness 16.6 Gallagher 15.0 Mitchell 12.1 Norris 11.4 Davis 2.7 Scallon 2.3

Kildare South (rural end of County Kildare, horsey country with residual rural working class with newer outer suburban developments):

Higgins 40.2 Gallagher 31.4 McGuinness 11.5 Norris 6.3 Mitchell 5.4 Davis 3.0 Scallon 2.1

Galway East (very rural but within Michael D.-land):

Higgins 46.2 Gallagher 28.9 McGuinness 10.4 Mitchell 6.2 Scallon 3.6 Norris 2.5 Davis 2.3

Sligo-North Leitrim (largeish working-class town with a lot of very rural and often remote areas attached):

Higgins 36.5 Gallagher 29.3 McGuinness 16.1 Mitchell 7.0 Norris 4.0 Scallon 3.8 Davis 3.3

Dublin North East (mixture of some very wealthy areas like Howth with a lot of 70s and 80s working-class developments and bubble economy new developments like Belmayne):

Higgins 43.9 Gallagher 21.0 McGuinness 13.2 Norris 10.3 Mitchell 5.1 Davis 4.4 Scallon 2.2

(Source: RTE News)
Change on 2011: Fine Gael -5% Labour +8% Fianna Fail -16% Sinn Fein +4% Socialist +7% Independent +4%. Swing: Fianna Fail to Labour of 12%

Cork East (mixture of some very prosperous agricultural areas with a lot of small industrial towns and some Cork city commuter territory):

Higgins 36.6 Gallagher 34.4 McGuinness 13.8 Mitchell 6.0 Norris 4.3 Scallon 3.0 Davis 2.1

Cork North West (very rural, rather socially conservative, some remote areas, but with a chunk of Cork city commuterland bolted on):

Gallagher 38.4 Higgins 34.3 McGuinness 11.6 Mitchell 7.6 Norris 3.7 Scallon 3.0 Davis 1.5

Meath East (manages to combine, in a not at all gerrymandered fashion, large chunks of newish and negative-equitied Dublin commuter belt with traditionally prosperous farming territory):

Higgins 38.1 Gallagher 32.2 McGuinness 11.7 Norris 6.7 Mitchell 6.3 Davis 2.8 Scallon 2.3

Limerick City (notoriously tough working-class city with a reputation for Catholicism and gang wars):

Higgins 49.3 Gallagher 22.2 McGuinness 12.1 Norris 6.0 Mitchell 5.6 Scallon 2.9 Davis 1.9

Cork South West (predominantly rural and sometimes remote, large fishing vote, attracts alternative lifestylers and some Cork commuters):

Gallagher 35.0 Higgins 33.9 McGuinness 13.0 Mitchell 8.5 Norris 4.3 Scallon 3.2 Davis 2.2

Mayo (rural, remote, much given to worship of Enda Kenny, Davis's home constituency):

Higgins 38.3 Gallagher 25.2 McGuinness 11.9 Davis 9.4 Mitchell 9.2 Scallon 3.2 Norris 2.8

Meath West (the other non-gerrymandered Meath seat, combining the large commuter-belt town of Navan with some more prosperous rural seat, eventually confounded its non-gerrymander in February by electing a SF TD):

Higgins 34.4 Gallagher 33.9 McGuinness 14.9 Mitchell 6.1 Norris 5.9 Scallon 2.7 Davis 2.5

Right, you take over. Cork SW is the newest result. Higgins only barely trailing Gallagher.

I'll pass back to you in about 15/20 minutes when I have to go out.

Now looking as if Mitchell will manage to edge Norris on first preferences.

Wexford (traditionally prosperous farming with rural working-class and small industrial town mixture with a bit of fishing thrown in, now with sprinkling of Dublin negative-equity commuter belt in the north):

Higgins 36.2 Gallagher 33.9 McGuinness 14.0 Mitchell 6.0 Norris 4.8 Davis 2.5 Scallon 2.5

Sadly so, yeah.

And we'll have to find someone else... I'm going out right about the same time. :D

By-election count is continuing apace.

NULTY, Patrick    LAB       8665    8885    10186
COPPINGER, Ruth    SP       7542    7834    9368
McGUINNESS, David    FF        7742    7935    8720
LOFTUS, Eithne    FG    5263    5410    5942
DONNELLY, Paul    SF    3173    3309    -
O'GORMAN, Roderic    GP    1787    1925

Coppinger has been ever so marginally closing the gap so far, and has already overtaken McGuinness, but Loftus is to be eliminated next.

Dublin North Central (predominantly lower-middle class territory with upper-middle class fringe, formerly Haugheyland):

Higgins 46.4 Gallagher 20.1 McGuinness 11.2 Norris 10.5 Mitchell 5.9 Davis 3.5 Scallon 2.5

Cork North Central (mainly working-class Northside of Cork city diluted with commuter territory and large rural rump):

Higgins 37.6 Gallagher 28.1 McGuinness 20.0 Norris 5.1 Mitchell 4.7 Scallon 2.9 Davis 1.7

Cork South Central (more middle-class end of Cork city along with large chunk of commuter belt):

Higgins 45.0 Gallagher 24.9 McGuinness 14.1 Norris 6.5 Mitchell 4.7 Scallon 2.8 Davis 2.0

Scallon now looking likely to overhaul Davis on first preferences.

Off for a while...

Now that was a close 4th count...

NULTY, Patrick LAB  13034
McGUINNESS, David FF  9865
COPPINGER, Ruth SP  9847

- knocked off by 18 votes! talk about close... i was hoping (insert dreaming) she'd be able to pull it off, but realistically i thought McGuinness would have killed her on the 4th ballot.

Do they do recounts?

They do. A recount is currently in progress:

1947 Dublin West By-Election 4th Count RESULT: Ruth Coppinger excluded after count four, however a full recount has been ordered after just 18 votes separated the Socialist Party candidate from Fianna Fáil's David McGuinness.

Longford-Westmeath RESULT: Higgins 35.5%; Gallagher 33.7%; McGuinness 13.1%; Mitchell 7.5%; Norris 4.8%; Scallon 3.4%; Davis 2.1%

Roscommon-South Leitrim RESULT: Gallagher 36%; Higgins 31.8%; McGuinness 14.6%; Mitchell 6.5%; Scallon 4.4%; Norris 3.7%; Davis 3%

Wicklow RESULT: Higgins 41.6%; Gallagher 28.4%; McGuinness 11.6%; Norris 8%; Mitchell 4.8%; Davis 3.1%; Scallon 2.4%

Kerry South RESULT: Higgins 36.7%; Gallagher 30.6%; McGuinness 14.9%; Mitchell 7.3%; Norris 3.9%; Scallon 3.9%; Davis 2.7%

Kerry North-West Limerick RESULT: Higgins 37.9%; Gallagher 29%; McGuinness 16.8%; Mitchell 6.5%; Norris 3.8%; Scallon 3.7%; Davis 2.2%

Waterford RESULT: Higgins 38.7%; Gallagher 31%; McGuinness 13.6%; Mitchell 5.9%; Norris 5.8%; Scallon 2.9%; Davis 2.2%

Limerick RESULT: Higgins 38.7%; Gallagher 33.5%; McGuinness 10.6%; Mitchell 7.8%; Norris 3.7%; Scallon 3.4%; Davis 2.2%

Clare RESULT: Higgins 44.3%; Gallagher 31.4%; McGuinness 10.5%; Mitchell 5.4%; Norris 3.6%; Scallon 2.8%; Davis 1.9%

Dublin North West RESULT: Higgins 38.8%; Gallagher 20.3%; McGuinness 19.9%; Norris 10.6%; Mitchell 4.4%; Davis 3.7%; Scallon 2.3%

Tipperary North RESULT: Gallagher 35.6%; Higgins 34.8%; McGuinness 11.8%; Mitchell 8.2%; Scallon 3.7%; Norris 3.7%; Davis 2.3%

Carlow-Kilkenny RESULT: Higgins 36.7%; Gallagher 33.8%; McGuinness 12.4%; Mitchell 7.7%; Norris 4.8%, Scallon 2.7%; Davis 1.9%

We're left waiting for:

Galway West (self-consciously hip city - think of a wetter, heterosexual Brighton or a Seattle without any tech giants - allied to remote, Irish-speaking hinterland: Michael D's home base and will go to him by a landslide)

Laois-Offaly (last boggy redoubt of Fianna Fáil - rural small towns with some outer Dublin commuter territory: Gallagher should win narrowly)

Louth (two down-at-heel industrial towns that have been somewhat commuterised and with an influx from Northern Ireland, with a rural annexe and a reputation for relaxed business standards: Gallagher's home base but Higgins will outpoll him)

Cavan-Monaghan (deeply rural, small-farmer territory along the border, where Gallagher was born and grew up: Gallagher by a landslide with McGuinness second and Higgins a poor third)

So overall it looks like something like

Higgins 40%
Gallagher 28%
McGuinness 13%
Norris 6.5%
Mitchell 6.5%
Dana  3%
Davis 3%

Wasnt Gallagher getting beat 2-1 in a lot of parts of Louth.  I know he was losing his hometown of Blackrock by that margin.

I thought McGuinness, Mitchell and Norris did worse than I thought they would by a few percentage points. I thought Higgins would have been around 35 than 40.  Gallagher is right around where I thought he would be.

Galway West: Higgins 57.6 Gallagher 18.5 McGuinness 10.7 Mitchell 4.6 Scallon 3.5 Norris 3.3 Davis 1.8

Blackrock is a middle-class suburb of Dundalk and the middle-class areas today have been going to Higgins (see south Dublin for examples). Gallagher is appealing more to rural voters and the aspirational lower middle-classes - a Tay Party candidate if you will.

Cavan-Monaghan: Gallagher 45.1 McGuinness 20.6 Higgins 19.8 Mitchell 7.1 Norris 2.8 Scallon 2.7 Davis 1.8

So, in short, Higgins has this in the bag, as does the Labour candidate out in whatever place they are doing the by-election?

Higgins was always going to attract more transfers than Gallagher from all the other candidates (except perhaps Scallon). The Father Ted moment at the debate and the car crash on the radio the following morning ensured that the transfers were going to go even more strongly to him.

Gallagher would have had to be ahead by more than 6% to counteract that. Instead, a large chunk of his vote (the bits who were attracted to the idea of an indepedent candidate as President) switched en masse to Higgins.

yesbutwhatImsayingis, since he's not ahead, Higgins has this in the bag.

Louth: Higgins 36.3 Gallagher 29.6 McGuinness 20.0 Norris 5.5 Mitchell 4.1 Davis 2.3 Scallon 2.2
Laois-Offaly: Gallagher 37.6 Higgins 31.8 McGuinness 13.0 Mitchell 6.6 Norris 6.0 Scallon 3.0 Davis 2.0

National First Preference Vote:

Higgins 39.6
Gallagher 28.5
McGuinness 13.7
Mitchell 6.4
Norris 6.2
Scallon 2.9
Davis 2.7

Scallon and Davis eliminated.

Update: Transfers so far are edging Mitchell further ahead of Norris. The second count result is likely to be announced at around 1am. The next count will be the distribution of Norris's transfers in order to see if they could move Mitchell above the 12.5% mark required to retrieve some of his expenses (they won't).

The count is likely to be adjourned until morning after the second count announcement.

The Dublin West recount has resulted in a dead heat between Coppinger and McGuinness, with FF pushing for a total recount in the morning.

The referendum on judicial pay looks likely to be passed easily, but the referendum on parliamentary enquiries will be lost.

Higgins has had this in the bag since monday night, teddy.  Gallagher wilted under scrutiny.  The one thing I'm surprised at if that most everyone who jumped ship all broke for higgins.  Martin did a good job taking sg down but that didn't ttranslate into votes.

 

Count 2

Higgins	701,101	(39.6%)	+29,379	730,480	(41.2%)
Gallagher	504,964	(28.5%)	+24,437	529,401	(29.9%)
McGuinness	243,030	(13.7%)	+9,581	252,611	(14.3%)
Mitchell	113,321	(6.4%)	+14,036	127,357	(7.2%)
Norris	109,469	(6.2%)	+7,057	116,526	(6.6%)
Scallon	51,220	(2.9%)	-51,220
Davis	48,567	(2.7%)	-48,567
Non-transferable	0	(0.0%)	+15,387	15,387	(0.9%)

Norris eliminated

Nulty wins Dublin West for Labour

Nulty	8,665	8,885	10,186	13,027	17,636
McGuinness	7,742	7,935	8,720	9,873	11,590
Coppinger	7,542	7,834	9,368	9,873
Loftus	5,263	5,410	5,942
Donnelly	3,173	3,309
O'Gorman	1,787	1,925
Caesar Hunt	775
Kidd	311
Bermingham	185
Doris	95
Tallon	73
Cooney	51
Ó Ceallaigh	40

I'm surprised Donnelly was eliminated at the same time as O'Gorman when O'Gorman's vote could have theoretically pushed Donnelly over the threshold to recieve some reimbursement for his expenses.  Not that 60% of the Green Party (second count) vote would have gone to a Shinner (as would have been necessary for Donnelly to cross the expenses threshold) with Labour, a Socialist and Fianna Fail still in play (I doubt FG would have gotten many) but still.  Or is the threshold in that election not 1/4 of the quota (just over 12.5% of the vote in the single-winner case)?

How was the tie in the second-to-last count broken in favor of FF?  Will there be another recount?

:)

What was the whole deal with Davis tanking anyway?  Scandal, being upstaged by Gallagher, or a combination?

Wow, a tie. Why was Coppinger eliminated instead of McGuinness? Because she had less first-preference votes?

It's mathematically impossible for anyone other than Higgins or Gallagher to win now.  Will Mitchell and McGuinness both be officially excluded before Count 4?

When I first read about Gallagher's 'Father Ted moment', I initially assumed he had poorly attempted a Chinaman impression or something.  The 'money was just resting in my account' debacle isn't quite as entertaining, alas.

I havent watched Father Ted in a decade so I didnt really get the reference.

After following Gallagher recently I don't think he was capable of any humor- embarrassing or otherwise.  He just spouted out a bunch of platitudes and nonsense really.  Ive never seen his reality show but I can't fathom what he brings to the table.  Scratch the surface of his supposed business acumen and you just find shady deals helped by politicos.

Anyway, glad Michael D pulled it off. He is a bit of a windbag and getting older but it is not really a high impact job. I am disappointed that McGuinness was unable to bring in more support. I am glad he ran but it is time for the younger generation to start taking a more marquee role.

Higgins was the best you could hope for really, but I can't help feel disappointed the Socialists couldn't make it into 2nd place in Dublin West (with all of its following consequences re reallocated votes) given the result.

There are four methods of breaking a tie in an STV election
1. Forwards Tie-Breaking
Choose the candidate who has the most [least] votes at the first stage or at the earliest point in the count where they had unequal votes.

2. Backwards Tie-Breaking:
Choose the candidate who has the most [least] votes at the previous stage or at the latest point in the count where they had unequal votes.

3. Borda Tie-Breaking: Choose the candidate with the highest [lowest] Borda score. See [2].

4. Coombs Tie-Breaking: Choose the candidate with the fewest [most] last place votes.

I think it's safe to say that the 3rd and 4th would not have occurred to Irish lawmakers... and the second would have resulted in a different elimination... so clearly the law uses the first. ;D

Higgins - 737,615 (+7,135)
Gallagher - 531,924 (+2,523)
McGuinness - 254,275 (+1,664)
Mitchell - 128,326 (+969)
8 of 43


PROJECTION
Higgins - 776,000
Gallagher - 545,500
McGuinness - 263,000
Mitchell - 133,500

"The Socialist Party had asked for a recount after she was found to be just 18 votes behind the Fianna Fáil candidate.

The recheck found errors in the transfer process bringing Ms Coppinger level.

But after consultation with both parties, returning officer John Fitzpatrick said he was eliminating Ms Coppinger under Section 122 of the Electoral Act which means the person with the highest first preference vote goes through."

---

Will they be releasing later counts by constituency?

PROJECTION (based on 12 of 43)
Higgins - 784,000
Gallagher - 548,000
McGuinness - 265,000
Mitchell - 135,000

()

http://presidentialelection.ie/all_data.php

My PROJECTION for the next ballot

Higgins - 875,000
Gallagher - 590,000
McGuinness - 267,000

And final
Higgins - 1,065,000
Gallagher - 667,000

From: http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com

() (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/2011-presidential-election-michael-d.html)

I know the guy who made that map.

Let me drag him here

Also from Irish Election Maps (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com):

() (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/2011-presidential-election-sean.html)

Go raibh maith agat!

Also from Irish Election Maps (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com):

() (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/2011-presidential-election-martin.html)

Also from Irish Election Maps (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com):

() (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/2011-presidential-election-gay-mitchell.html)

Also from Irish Election Maps (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com):

() (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/2011-presidential-election-david-norris.html)

Also from Irish Election Maps (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com):

() (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/2011-presidential-election-dana.html)

Also from Irish Election Maps (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com):

() (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/2011-presidential-election-mary-davis.html)

Norris map is very clean-looking, if predictable. Is Dana from Donegal - I assume Davis is from Mayo?
EDIT: Dana's from Derry. Well, close enough.

These maps are awesome. This guy and I were supposed to work together making maps for NI and Ireland, but I lazed out and he did it all himself :P He does all the Irish election maps on Wikipedia.

()

Patrick Nulty - winner of the Dublin West by-election.

First win by a Government party in a by-election since Galway East 1982.
First gain by a Government party in a by-election since Monaghan, 1977.

Indeed so.

Why aren't McGuinness and Mitchell eliminated alongside with Norris on count 2 ?

Because the Irish Elections Agency is not as astute as I would be as SoFE :P

For those so interested, section 122 of the Electoral Act (http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/1992/en/act/pub/0023/print.html#sec122).

Because if all of Norris' voters gave Mitchell their second preference, he'd keep his deposit.

Which opens the question of why the same wasn't done with the Green and SF vote in Dublin West, so I guess we're back at Jas' answer.

So really, that ought to run "Section 122, Subsection 3".

Greetings all. I'm Teddy's friend, the one who made the maps. I'm very glad you've found them useful. Teddy left me numerous messages to come here, so here I am!

Welcome!

I recall some of those maps from looking at old Irish election results on wikipedia. :)

Hurrah!

Welcome to the forum, and thank you for all these nice maps. :)

You're very welcome for the maps and thank you for the warm welcomes!

Maps will be coming on the referendum results too.

Count is complete.
Count No. 3
Higgins 793,128 (+62,648)
Gallagher 548,373 (+18,972)
McGuinness 265,196 (+12,585)
Mitchell 136,309 (+8952)
exhausted +13,369

They'll be distributing McGuinness along with Mitchell.

()

Norris transfers have taken Higgins ahead of Gallagher in Cork SW and Tipperary N.
Also ahead of McGuinness and into second place in Cavan-Monaghan.

Count 3

Higgins	701,101	(39.6%)	+29,379	730,480	(41.2%)	+62,648	793,128	(44.8%)
Gallagher	504,964	(28.5%)	+24,437	529,401	(29.9%)	+18,972	548,373	(31.0%)
McGuinness	243,030	(13.7%)	+9,581	252,611	(14.3%)	+12,585	265,196	(15.0%)
Mitchell	113,321	(6.4%)	+14,036	127,357	(7.2%)	+8,952	136,309	(7.7%)
Norris	109,469	(6.2%)	+7,057	116,526	(6.6%)	-116,526
Scallon	51,220	(2.9%)	-51,220
Davis	48,567	(2.7%)	-48,567
Non-transferable	0	(0.0%)	+15,387	15,387	(0.9%)	+13,369	28,756	(1.6%)

McGuinness and Mitchell eliminated

Some final results:

Cork North Central: Higgins 61.1 Gallagher 38.9
Cork South Central: Higgins 66.6 Gallagher 33.4
Donegal South West: Gallagher 52.0 Higgins 48.0
Dublin North Central: Higgins 71.4 Gallagher 28.6
Dublin West: Higgins 66.3 Gallagher 33.7
Tipperary South: Higgins 55.9 Gallagher 44.1

Clare: Higgins 61.7 Gallagher 38.3
Galway East: Higgins 56.8 Gallagher 43.2
Mayo: Higgins 61.0 Gallagher 39.0
Meath West: Higgins 55.7 Gallagher 44.3
Sligo-North Leitrim: Higgins 59.4 Gallagher 40.6

Limerick City: Higgins 70.7 Gallagher 29.3

Cork North West: Higgins 52.6 Gallagher 47.4
Dublin Mid West: Higgins 67.3 Gallagher 32.7
Dublin South: Higgins 73.2 Gallagher 26.8
Dublin South Central: Higgins: 74.1 Gallagher 25.9
Wicklow: Higgins 62.3 Gallagher 37.7

Cork South West: Higgins 54.5 Gallagher 45.5
Donegal North East: Higgins 50.3 Gallagher 49.7

Fourth count RESULT: Higgins 1,007,104 (+213,976) and Gallagher 628,114 (+79,741)

Welcome :)
Excellent blog btw

Early tallies on the referenda...
Judicial pay passing 80-20
Oireachtas enquiries failing 46-54

()

Remaining final constituency results:

Carlow-Kilkenny: Higgins 56.8 Gallagher 43.2
Cavan-Monaghan: Gallagher 61.5 Higgins 38.5
Cork East: Higgins 55.7 Gallagher 44.3
Dublin Central: Higgins 60.2 Gallagher 39.8
Dublin North: Higgins 66.0 Gallagher 34.0
Dublin North East: Higgins 69.3 Gallagher 30.7
Dublin North West: Higgins 67.4 Gallagher 32.6
Dublin South East: Higgins 79.9 Gallagher 20.1
Dublin South West: Higgins 66.6 Gallagher 33.4
Dún Laoghaire: Higgins 75.5 Gallagher 24.5
Galway West: Higgins 75.8 Gallagher 24.2
Kerry North-West Limerick: Higgins 60.5 Gallagher 39.5
Kerry South: Higgins 59.4 Gallagher 40.6
Kildare North: Higgins 65.4 Gallagher 34.6
Kildare South: Higgins 57.9 Gallagher 42.1
Laois-Offaly: Higgins 51.1 Gallagher 48.9
Limerick: Higgins 57.8 Gallagher 42.2
Longford-Westmeath: Higgins 56.2 Gallagher 43.8
Louth: Higgins 59.0 Gallagher 41.0
Meath East: Higgins 58.5 Gallagher 41.5
Roscommon-South Leitrim: Higgins 52.0 Gallagher 48.0
Tipperary North: Higgins 54.4 Gallagher 45.6
Waterford: Higgins 59.2 Gallagher 40.8
Wexford: Higgins 55.5 Gallagher 44.5

Regional results:

Dublin: Higgins 70.2 Gallagher 29.8
Rest of Leinster: Higgins 57.7 Gallagher 42.3
Munster: Higgins 59.4 Gallagher 40.6
Connacht: Higgins 61.7 Gallagher 38.3
Ulster (part of): Gallagher 56.4 Higgins 43.6

National: Higgins 61.0 Gallagher 39.0

Count 4

Higgins	701,101	(39.6%)	+29,379	730,480	(41.2%)	+62,648	793,128	(44.8%)	+213,946	1,007,104	(56.8%)
Gallagher	504,964	(28.5%)	+24,437	529,401	(29.9%)	+18,972	548,373	(31.0%)	+79,741	628,114	(35.5%)
McGuinness	243,030	(13.7%)	+9,581	252,611	(14.3%)	+12,585	265,196	(15.0%)	-265,196
Mitchell	113,321	(6.4%)	+14,036	127,357	(7.2%)	+8,952	136,309	(7.7%)	-136,309
Norris	109,469	(6.2%)	+7,057	116,526	(6.6%)	-116,526
Scallon	51,220	(2.9%)	-51,220
Davis	48,567	(2.7%)	-48,567
Non-transferable	0	(0.0%)	+15,387	15,387	(0.9%)	+13,369	28,756	(1.6%)	+107,718	136,474	(7.7%)

Higgins elected

My projection was right!

Within 3 thousand ballots when it's considered that 5.5% went exhausted that I did not expect to.

Are constituency results (or perhaps county or county equivilent results) available for earlier Presidential elections, and how far back if so?  I'd love to see such maps for 1966 or 1973.

http://presidentialelection.ie/downloads/Presidential_Elections_1938-2004.pdf (http://presidentialelection.ie/downloads/Presidential_Elections_1938-2004.pdf)

Without meaning to brag, I have maps up for every presidential election. 1966 and 73 are very similar.

I can't include links yet but someone else here might be able to.

What's the threshold for that type of thing these days?

Twenty, I think:

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/search/label/Irish%20presidential%20election%201966 (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/search/label/Irish%20presidential%20election%201966)

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/search/label/Irish%20presidential%20election%201973 (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/search/label/Irish%20presidential%20election%201973)

Haha, wow.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirtieth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2011_(Ireland)
This is an amendment to allow the Oilycrotches (the Irish Parliament) to investigate or something. Currently the Oirelandhcats (the Irish Parliament) can not do so, or something, so they wanted to allow it to be that way. The Orig... the Irish Parliament wanted these powers, of course, because of the Applebees incident...
Actually
I really dont understand this issue :P Anyway, it failed.

This referendum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-Ninth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2011_(Ireland)
however is easy to understand. It allows the Parliament to lower the wages of judges.

Cause when they made cross-the-board cuts to senior civil servants' pay at the height of the crisis, they had to exempt judges because of the provision now being amended.

Yes, that is the Referendum I do understand.

The other referendum was attempting to overrule a contentious Supreme Court decision.

Except in Ulster, Higgins received the last-count preferences of at least 50.0% (just over, in Roscommon - Leitrim) of third party voters, and usually no more than 56%, except in his Dublin strongholds and in Connaught, where they rise up to 60.8% (Galway West) and a whopping 66.3% (Dublin SE, with Dublin S, Dunleary, and Galway W being the three next best results.) 54.1% is the national figures.
43.4% in Cavan-Monaghan, 38.4% in Donegal SW, and 36.9% in Donegal NE form a remarkable outlier.
Gallagher receives between 15.9% (Dublin SE) and 25.3% (Donegal NE) anywhere except in Cavan-Monaghan, with Dublin results ranging up to 21.4% (N, SW), while his weakest share outside is in the city of Limerick at 18.2%. Cavan-Monaghan gave the local boy 30.8% of lower preferences. The national rate is 21.8%.
The exhausted shares (of the third party vote) are lowest in the same three South Dublin constituencies where Higgins cleans house, though they are not really outliers here - Dublin S coming in lowest at 17.4% - and range up to in 29.2% Cork NC, except in Donniegaul. Here 36.7% (SW) and 37.8% (NE) were exhausted. Cavan-Monaghan is unremarkable at 25.8%. In general, high exhaustion rates appear to be predictably correlated with high vote shares for Martin McGuinness. The national rate is 24.1%.

Maps for both referenda are online now, if anyone is interested.

()

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/referendum-2011-oireachtas-inquiries.html (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/referendum-2011-oireachtas-inquiries.html)

()

http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/referendum-2001-judges-renumeration.html (http://irishpoliticalmaps.blogspot.com/2011/10/referendum-2001-judges-renumeration.html)

Donegal and Roscommon forming an unlikely alliance with Dublin 4 in being notably bolshie on the first of the referendums.

A bit of that on the second referendum, too, actually.

First map is hilariously uniform, really.

So Donegal is Sinn Féin country now, then? I suppose it was a matter of time.


I've been reading your blog for a few months now. It's excellent stuff. Good work!

Donegal is non-conformist (at least where conformity implies the official "Dublin" mindset) and has been for some time. It was the only area to vote against Lisbon II but even before that it tended to take a more socially conservative stance on the various abortion and divorce referendums. Throw in the Morris Tribunal revelations about Garda behaviour there and a more general sense of alienation from a central government due to geographic isolation and perceived official indifference, and you end up with a county that "does different". Blaneyism arguably acted as a conduit whereby people in what had been a Fianna Fáil stronghold got used to not voting for "official" Fianna Fáil.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dL_PXBt85rY (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dL_PXBt85rY)

Roscommon's bolshiness is more recent and owes a lot to the hospital issue.

Bumping this to take account of developments since then...

Nulty, along with two other TDs - Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath) and Tommy Broughan (Dublin North East) - has since been excluded from the Labour parliamentary party. Penrose, who was a "super junior" minister with the right to attend (but not vote at) Cabinet meetings, resigned over the closure of a military barracks in his constituency. Broughan voted against the Government over the renewal of guarantees to bondholders in the banks (an issue which Labour had trumpeted over the last few years as evidence of their good judgement and distance from "politics as usual"). Nulty voted against the rise in the higher rate of VAT from 23% to 25%. Both had the whip withdrawn and are now non (http://www.labour.ie/patricknulty/)-persons (http://www.labour.ie/tommybroughan) as far as Labour are concerned. (Interestingly, Willie Penrose - without whom Labour would have no significant presence in Westmeath - still exists (http://www.labour.ie/williepenrose/).)

Labour also seem to be hell-bent on self-immolation. Over the last month, they have:

• made sure to associate themselves (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/budget/budget-2012-no-hiding-place-as-howlin-reveals-euro14bn-cuts-2954246.html) with the public expenditure cuts part of the budget,
• announced a cut to the disability allowance for 18-24 year-olds which was reversed two days later (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1207/breaking5.html) after public outrage accompanied by pious tut-tutting from their right-wing government partners,
• emerged as cheerleaders for the appointment of the current head of the Department of Finance, associated with a series of bad decisions, to a €200K p.a. sinecure in Brussels, with a dissident MEP being reportedly threatened with expulsion (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/1117/1224307705971.html) for opposing the appointment, and
• decided to cut hundreds of teaching positions in primary schools in underprivileged areas (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1213/education.html)

.
[/list]

The latest opinion poll (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1217/politics.html) released tonight by Behaviour & Attitudes gives:

FG 30 (-7)
SF 21 (+2)
FF 20 (+5)
Lab 11 (-4)
Greens 3 (+1)
Inds/Others 15 (+3)

The overall Government approval rating is -43 (26/69).[/list]

Utterly predictable, isn't it? This was bound to happen when Labour attached itself to Fine Gael and whatever liberal policies they might pursue. The question now is whether Sinn Féin is so unpalatable to the majority of the electorate that it can't consistently poll in second place.

Behaviours & Attitudes are a fairly crappy pollster, no? Not that I really doubt the trends, but IIRC they've had results similar to this that were outliers compared to MRBI & Red C, so I'll hold on to hope. ;)

Labour have certainly made some poor political decisions, though. It's a shame, but FG-Labour really was - and is - the only viable government, so it's a damned-if-they-do damned-if-they-don't kind of situation.


Nah, instead the people will return to the loving embrace of Fianna Fáil after deciding that they're not so bad after all. Séan Gallagher nearly winning the Presidency's made me believe that, although I'm aware I'm being a little pessimistic, like some kind of Irish Beet.

"Irish Beet"? Interesting name for the potato. ^-^

I'd respond with something equally witty but I'm exhausted from the amount of spinning I had to do in that post. :P

I think the fact of Sean Gallagher has many meanings but in terms of Irish electoral politics, it just shows that while the FF "brand" is damaged, the essence is not. The 2011 election was a classic example of people trying to change things as that things stay the same. However, the brand might be tarnished for a while - I suggest the name change and another change of leader would be the best option for FF.

Even so, I don't see the party of ever getting back to pre-2011 levels in Dublin. That a disaster for them of some nature or other there was something that was on the cards for a while and there is simply no room for recovery.

All the things I mentioned are Labour's own fault (though the disability cuts would have been approved by the whole cabinet - including the piously tut-tutting Blueshirts).

Add to that a stagnating economy (unemployment now at 14.8%, GNP down -4.2% year-on-year in the 3rd quarter of 2011), a seemingly endless succession of flat-rate taxes and public service cuts, a government strategy on Europe that's seen as being supine and ineffective, cronyism in terms of party hacks being given special advisor jobs at six-figure salaries way above a supposed maximum, and an apparent determination by Merkozy to take the Eurozone into long-term recession (or at best stagnation), and prospects both for Labour - and more importantly for the rest of us - look bleak. Your only small consolation will be that FG will get an equal hammering.

The fewest seats Labour have ever taken in a Dáil election is 7 (in 1932). That record could well be broken next time round.


2016 will be 22 years after the first IRA ceasefire and 19 years after it was reinstated. People may well be desperate enough by then to give Sinn Féin a chance.

Unless the Euro does collapse and a real apocalypse does occur that makes everything we have gone through so far a stubbed toe in comparison (certainly a possibility), I really don't think either Labour or FG will collapse in the same manner FF did. Simply because nobody can real blame FG or Lab for the disaster so they can play the "We don't want to do this, but TINA" role (Something FF could never sincerely do). In saying that, I didn't think the government would get this unpopular so fast. So maybe I'm talking from the wrong orifice...

Btw, Taoiseach Gerry Adams, seriously?

The cuts are going to get worse in future years - I've no doubt that Croke Park will be thrown on the bonfire next year or the year after as a sacrificial offering, but it's not going to be enough to prevent the dismantling of large parts of the public services. Fine Gael will, of course, insist on income tax staying where it is (it knows where its support base is). Labour will prove as willing to stand up to them as it has been up until now.

The Euro compact, if it gets through, insists on member states reducing their debt/GDP ratio to 60%, which implies either significant growth or years of significant budget surpluses, i.e. austerity stretching to eternity. There is absolutely no sign of Germany being prepared to concede any debt restructuring. I doubt if we can rely on the German electorate dumping the CDU in 2013, and the peripheral economies may not last that long.


<shrugs> Taoiseach Mary Lou or Taoiseach Pearse Doherty, perhaps.

If the alternative is Taoiseach Declan Ganley...?

Giving how crumbly the parliamentary Labour party has been so far.. (it must be a record), I doubt they can really continue like this. But then again I'm probably underestimating the sheer stupidity of the Irish parliamentary centre-left; something I should be inured to by now due to the experience of the Greens.

In saying that, I have to agree with that analysis about the future. However, it remains to be seen how the government will deal with industrial action of any sort.

I shall add, given that I come from my family who knows a quite a lot of people in their 50s or early 60s who work in civil service or public sector type jobs, the amount of people I know who are retiring this year is..... well, predictable.


Yeah. Real question is whether the government will even survive to 2015-2016.


We would have to reach the point where guns and liquor would be the same investment (and zombies armies would rule the earth) for those to be the only two choices. I suspect actually if a real big collapse happens, we simply see the country slide into ungovernability as local interests would become pre-dominant in a majority-less dail. More Wallaces and Flanagans, not more Declan Ganleys.

Also, question of the role the ULA will play in the future...

I'm well aware of the number of retirements myself; but no matter how many retirements there are, it's not going to stop the "we could keep this hospital/school/etc. open if only the greedy public servants didn't insist on being paid" campaign from the Sindo and Pat "Plank" Kenny.


Labour stuck in there through 1982-87 and, realistically, FG only need about 8 or so Labour TDs to remain to have an overall majority. (You could argue that Labour's tragedy is that its best election ever coincided with a government partner that barely needs it to govern alone and is at its most ideologically right-wing since the early 1930s.)


I'm thinking of where the disaffected FG voters are going to go. Some of the FF converts from the last election may return to base, but the Newstalk listeners and Sindo readers may look for something more ideologically, say, robust. (Realistically, it's more likely to be someone from the right of FG or FF - Deasy or John McGuinness, perhaps - or a business type less obviously dodgy than the Squire of Abbeyknockmoy.)


That assumes they'll stay in one piece.

YOU SHALL NOT MENTION THAT HATERAG "PAPER" IN THIS FORUM EVER AGAIN... EVER!!!!!!1111

Seriously (kind of) though, when the CPA goes up in flames, I'm going to avoid the media pretty much for the whole epoch (though I hope by then I'll be out of the country, so I can avoid wanting to kill things).


But considering some of the controversy FG have gotten themselves into local issues (ie. Roscommon hospital closure) there is likely to be more leakage from FG itself. It certainly make a minority government pretty insecure (and god, who wants that?)


I think you are underestimating the incompetence of the Irish right. There is a reason why the feenahs have never had a significant rival to its right before (other than PDs, but given what happened to them, it's almost the exception that proves the rule).

And Quite frankly, the Irish right vote has always gone for dodgy businessmen, I don't think dodgy-ness is the factor that has prevented Ganley's rise up the ranks.

However, it is obvious that now is the moment for a real anti-EU party to form. That fact it hasn't shows at least something... (same the anti-immigration movement, the sentiment exists but the congealment glue does not... I suspect part of this might be down to the essential localism and local tribalism inherit in Irish politics which has allowed idealess parties to so prominent in the first place).


Indeed. That though applies at this point to practically every party other than SF and perhaps FF (assuming the worst does come to past). The ULA though is brittle for obvious reasons and their ridiculous populist stand on the household charge, well... reveals something about the Irish "left" which perhaps it is not too polite to say out loud.

Have there been any polls or is there a general sense of how a greater EU integration referendum would go?

()

RedC for Paddy Power (http://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Paddy-Power-12th-Jan-Political-Poll-2012-Vote-Intention-Report.pdf), taken Monday-Wednesday (changes since November)

FG 33 (+1)
FF 17 (-1)
Lab 16 (+1)
SF 14 (-1)
Greens 3 (+1)
Others 17 (-1)

()
()
()

Red C has more of a record than Behaviours & Attitudes but is not as reliable as MRBI (it adjusts for likelihood to vote and consistently overstated FG in the run-up to the general election).

28% in Dublin for Ind/Other looks a lot at first glance, but I suppose it's not that surprising (and is subject to all the usual health warnings about margin of error on subsamples).

According to the press release, the Socialist Party (the continuation of Militant and one half of the ULA) are on 6% in Dublin.

Seeing as the elections are over (and noting Boardbashi's Additional Rule 2 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=63476.0)) the polls and such are probably more suited to the General Discussion (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=61532.0) thread rather than here on the Elections Board.

I'd imagine the government parties are pretty happy with this poll, all things considered. Both Labour and Fine Gael are only a few points off their GE performance, and the Sinn Féin surge seems to have abated.

Who are these neither male nor female persons and why do they disapprove of indies so much?

Good spot.

Referendum at some unspecified point this year on the European Fiscal Compact (http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0228/referendum.html) after the Attorney-General decided that it probably required a referendum for ratification. Government rather unsuccessfully pretending not to be disapppointed, with the leader of the Labour Party facing the prospect of asking the electorate to vote for Frankfurt's way (joke from last year's election campaign).

The only poll (http://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Report.pdf) taken on the treaty so far showed a margin of 40/36 in favour (although interestingly, the only age group with a majority in favour were the under-25s, who are least likely to actually vote).

Political support levels:

RedC (23-25/1)

FG 30 (-2)
FF 18 (-)
SF 17 (+2)
Ind/Others 17 (-1)
Lab 14 (-1)
Green 3 (+2)
SP 1 (-)

Behaviours & Attitudes (15-20/2) (http://issuu.com/behaviour_and_attitudes/docs/sunday-times-february-opinion-poll-report)

FG 32 (+2)
SF 25 (+4)
FF 16 (-4)
Ind/Others 15 (-)
Lab 10 (-1)
Green 2 (-1)

Make of it what you will...

Another RedC poll (https://twitter.com/#!/REDCMD/status/174609265661706242) due for Sunday.

Éamon Ó Cuív (http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0229/ocuive.html) (grandson of Éamon de Valera) resigns/is resigned as deputy leader of Fianna Fáil because of his unwillingness to vote for the Fiscal Compact in the Dáil.

Not resigning from Fianna Fáil - at least not yet.

Red C poll (http://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/SBP-4th-Mar-2012-Poll-Report.pdf):

Yes 44 No 29 Don't know 26

Party standings:

FG 30 (-)
SF 18 (+1)
FF 17 (-1)
Ind/Others 17 (-1)
Lab 16 (+2)
Green 2 (-1)

Millward Brown/IMS poll:

Yes 37 No 26 Don't know 15 "It depends" 21

Red C poll (http://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/SBP-25th-Mar-2012-Poll-Report.pdf):

Yes 49 No 33 Don't know 18

(According to news reports, these figures are more selective than previous polls about excluding those unlikely to vote.)

Update: The like-for-like figures with the previous poll are:

Yes 46 (+2) No 36 (+7) Don't know 18 (-8)

although you have to delve deep into the article to discover that.

Party standings (pre-Mahon report):

FG 34 (+4)
SF 18 (-)
FF 16 (-1)
Lab 15 (-1)
Ind/Others 15 (-2)
Green 2 (-)

Fiscal treaty referendum to be held on Thursday, May 31. (http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0327/referendum.html)

This is the first (and I hope the last) time I support the "no" side in a EU referendum.

Please Irishmen, save Europe from perennial recession !

Yeah, Ireland should do what it does best: sinking an Eu treaty.

I'm not sure whether we could achieve that even if we vote No; the treaty still goes ahead as soon as the first twelve members endorse it.

I would suggest that the French electorate have more power in this regard, but that's just me:

()

We might have postponed one or two, but I don't think we've ever sunk one; the only ones to achieve that were your southern and northern neighbours (with the EU constitution).

Another RedC poll (http://www.scribd.com/doc/87212706/pr29670-1-PP-RedC) taken more recently this week, with the same (adjusted) figures:

Yes 49 No 33 Don't Know 18

although this seems to produce a 59-41 breakdown with Don't Knows excluded.

Looking at the bowels of the poll and the crosstabs on party support, Sinn Féin seems to be very low: 61 in the sample as opposed to 127 for Labour. Fine Gael support in the sample also seems to be extremely high by comparison with recent polls.

Ipsos/MRBI (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0419/breaking1.html)(generally considered the most reliable of the pollsters):

Yes 30 No 23 Don't Know 39 Won't Vote 8

Looking good.

First government campaign pro-treaty video launched:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TZfzAOooEOU

...eh, sorry, I meant this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NyqHTJ3h90U

Easy to get mixed up with those non-threatening regional accents...

First one ought to get fewer people to vote 'no'.

Longford can be a terrifying sight, I suppose. Especially after the nightclub closes on a Saturday night.

Ipsos/MORI party standings (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0419/breaking47.html), for what it's worth:

FG 33 (-3)
SF 21 (+6)
Ind/Others 17 (+3)
FF 14 (-1)
Lab 13 (-6)
Green 2 (+1)

Government satisfaction: Yes 23 (-14), No 72 (+17)


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0420/1224314969462.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0420/1224314969462.html)

Sinn Fein will lead in the polls this time next year.

Haha, hilarious.

The real ad is actually really creepy for some reason. There's something very "propaganda brain washing" over it.

It's probably the pseudo-Sigur Rós tinkling in the background. Either that or the monotonous succession of half- and quarter-truths being recited in the foreground.

I believe it might be the combination of the two.

Behaviour & Attitudes/Sunday Times (http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0421/poll-shows-voters-do-not-understand-fiscal-treaty.html)

Yes 42 No 27 Don't know 31

Level of understanding of treaty

Very well 6 Quite well 12 To some extent 27 Not particularly well 23 Not at all 32

Party support levels

FG 33 (-)
Ind/Others 18 (+2)
SF 16 (-4)
FF 15 (-1)
Lab 14 (+1)
Green 5 (+3)

I want to see Sinn Féin top the poll at the next election. It would be fascinating.

I'm probably going to vote against the treaty solely because of how annoying that ad is.

Behaviour & Attitudes polling continues to be weird. I think it's fairly well-established that Sinn Féin have been surging for some time at the expense of Labour and... everyone else.

I don't.

Hopefully I will be out of the country by then. I don't think they'll top the poll though. They always seem to overpoll before elections and go down throughout the campaign.

With regards to the referendum, I'll vote no.

Red C for the Sunday Business Post (http://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/SBP-29th-Apr-2012-Poll-Report.pdf):

Yes 47 (-2) No 35 (+2) Don't know 18 (-)

Party support:

FG 32 (-2)
SF 19 (+1)
FF 17 (+1)
Ind/Others 15 (+2)
Lab 14 (-1)
Green 2 (-1)
SP 1 (-)

Irish opponents of Europe’s fiscal treaty are drawing inspiration from Athens and Paris as voters across Europe rebel against austerity.
The Irish hold a referendum on the treaty on May 31, after Greek and French voters rejected candidates promoting budget cuts to help solve the euro-region debt crisis. While opinion polls show the “yes” side ahead, that was also the case before previous unsuccessful plebiscites in Ireland.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-08/ireland-s-treaty-opponents-gain-anti-austerity-ammunition.html

I'll be keeping an eye out for the next poll. I'd like to think the margins would narrow

RedC for the Sunday Business Post (http://redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/SBP-13th-May-2012-Poll-Report.pdf):

Yes 53 (+6) No 32 (-3) Don't know 16 (-2)

Party support:

FG 29 (-3)
SF 21 (+2)
FF 19 (+2)
Ind/Others 15 (-)
Lab 13 (-1)
Green 2 (-)
SP 1 (-)

Its only a matter of time, isn't it? This time next year, probably. At least. Though whether it would ever show up in electoral reality...

People know that their political class are bullying and threatening them into voting a certain way in the referendum; they fear that they have no alternative; but they resent it.

Unless there's a miraculous economic recovery over the next three years, Fine Gael and Labour will meet the same fate as ND and PASOK. (Although the constitution would allow elections to be postponed until 2018 by a majority vote of parliament. Just sayin')

The thought of a Sinn Fein government is terrifying.

The thought of being bled dry economically and socially by our Teutonic masters and mistresses is considerably more terrifying.

Sinn Féin are not SYRIZA, but they are even less (despite the more fevered imaginings of our political/media class) Chrysi Avgi.

Well, if that happens, it's Merkel fault.

How so? 

As if I needed any more incentive to flee the country as soon as reasonably possible.

I won't go there. It always causes discomfort for the mods when it's discussed.

Who are you, Tom Elliott?

That is one of the strangest polls I've ever seen. SF support up yet treaty support up too? Very strange. Typically in elections the treaty loses popularity, the last contested referendum we had it was at like 80% a week beforehand but still went down 60:40.

As I said:

BTW, I actually got polled by RedC last night on voting intentions (likelihood to vote, treaty, general election - first and second preference parties, who had I voted for in 2011 and 2007) along with an endless set of questions about phone providers, so I assume there'll be another poll along shortly.

RedC seem to do their calling from England (the North-East judging by the accent of the interviewer). I wonder what subliminal effect that might have on the SF vote in their polls.

Millward Brown/Lansdowne for the Irish Independent (http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0516/fiscal-treaty-referendum.html):

Yes 37 No 24 Don't know 35 Won't vote 4

The other RedC poll I referred to earlier:

Yes 50 (-3) No 31 (-) Don't know 19 (+3)

Paddypower, the main Irish betting company has yes at 1/6 right now. Famously they paid out on a yes vote for the first Lisbon on a rumour of a landslide victory but it's not looking good at all for the no side.

The support for the Yes vote on most of these referenda is soft.   With spreads like those, light turnout could lead to a surprise No win. And then they will hold more votes until they get the result they want....

To be honest, I don't think a lot of the "no" vote is any less soft.

True, and it is quite a disparate "coalition"- I guess gaggle would be more accurate.

Ipsos/MRBI (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2012/0526/1224316734618.html) carried out between Wednesday and today:

Yes 39 (+9) No 30 (+7) Don't Know 22 (-17) Won't Vote 9 (+1)

In other news:


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0526/1224316733579.html (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0526/1224316733579.html)

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

Yes 49 (-1) No 35 (+4) Don't know 16 (-3)

Millward Brown/Lansdowne for the Sunday Independent:

Yes 42 (+5) No 28 (+4) Don't know 31 (-8)

Behaviours & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

Yes 45 (+3) No 30 (+5) Don't know 25 (-8)

Who could Sinn Fein go into coalition with, hypothetically?

They hate everyone. They could go in with FF technically who are RINOs.

It's probably more accurate to say that the other parties hate them.

SF might be more picky (or at least feel that they have the chance to be more picky) next time round.

Their ideal scenario would be that in 2015/16 where things are as bad (or worse) economically as they currently are (despite all the half-truths and general cac tairbh about employment, investment and stability being trotted out in the current referendum campaign) and they are facing three more-or-less equally-discredited "old parties", this would give them the chance to do a SYRIZA and say "we told you so". Their 2008 vote on the bank bailout would be very old news by then. (It's probably old news even now, not that Labour have realised (http://irishelectionliterature.wordpress.com/2012/05/25/labour-anti-sinn-fein-fiscal-treaty-posters-2008-sinn-fein-the-bank-bailout-wrong-then-2012-sinn-fein-the-stability-treaty-wrong-now/).)

Either you then get a very chastened Labour and still-battered FF as junior partners in a "progressive alliance" (I don't see the ULA as being either able or willing to join a government), or, more likely, you see an "all hands to the tiller" coalition of the old establishment clinging on for dear life in the hope of something turning up.

(Have I mentioned before that I am deeply pessimistic about the future here?)

Party standings:

Millward Brown/Lansdowne (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/its-yes-but-we-are-furious-at-government-banks-and-rte-3119736.html) (changes in comparison to earlier this month (http://www.imsl.ie/downloads/Irish%20Independent%20Poll%20May%202012%20FINAL%20INCLUDING%20PERSONAL%20FINANCE.pdf)):

FG 36 (+2)
SF 20 (+3)
FF 17 (-)
Ind/Others 13 (-3)
Lab 12 (-3)
Greens 1 (-)
United Left 1 (-)

RedC (changes in comparison with Paddy Power poll (http://www.scribd.com/doc/93900624/Paddy-Power-17th-May-Political-Poll-2012) last week):

FG 30 (-2)
SF 19 (-1)
FF 18 (-)
Ind/Others/Greens/SP 18 (+1, Greens were at 2 last week)
Lab 15 (+2)

Ipsos/MRBI (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2012/0528/1224316808102.html):

FG 32 (-1)
SF 24 (+3)
FF 17 (+3)
Ind/Others 15 (-2)
Lab 10 (-3)
Greens 2 (-)

Behaviour & Attitudes (http://www.banda.ie/assets/files/Sunday%20Times%20May%20Final%20Report.pdf):

FG 33 (-)
Ind/Others 18 (-)
SF 17 (+1)
FF 16 (+1)
Lab 14 (-)
Greens 2 (-3)

(B&A now seem to be adjusting the bejazes out of their figures - unadjusted it's FG 33, SF 23, FF 17, Ind/Others 14, Lab 11, Greens 1).

Looks like the referendum is making people forget the greens exist. Good. I fear however their support is concentrated where I live, Dublin South.

I imagine people are well aware that they exist; it's just that they have no intention of voting for them.

What I meant was they are nowhere to be seen during the referendum while everyone else has posters up.

I think the leadership didn't get enough support at the party convention to take an official stand in support of the treaty (it required 2/3rds support and they got 60%).

That "pessimism" though hardly is an unrealistic analysis, we are talking about a situation where for the forseeable future (Oxymoron, surely?) the breakdown of the euro is much more likely than a return to Keltic-Tigah levels of growth.

Conceivably SF could work with any of the parties except FG, no?

Conceivably. But I think unlikely.

Early turnout news... (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0529/1224316868146.html)

Inishfree will not detain the tallymen for long on Friday.

I see commentary from supposedly reputable economists (http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2012/05/20/an-illustrative-budgetary-scenario-for-2016-2020/) pooh-poohing the effort required in reducing the debt/GDP ratio to 60% given "modest" nominal GDP growth estimates of 3.5% in a few years time and I wonder if they're in an alternate universe.

My suspicion is that we are going to be made pay dearly (http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/merkel-s-human-side-iron-angie-is-only-half-the-story-a-800715-4.html) for Depfa and Hypo RealEstate (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depfa_Bank). And given that our leaders seem to be intent on being the best little doormats (http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/winning-merkel-s-praise-amid-quiet-suffering-irish-pave-road-to-recovery-a-797736.html) in Europe, the only slim hope for this country is if something changes in the German federal elections next year.

Anyone know when the votes will start to be counted? Tonight or tomorrow?

Tomorrow morning. First to report will probably be some of the Dublin constituencies, and I guarantee last to report will be Donegal. They're very lazy.

I, like (apparently) many people can't work up the enthusiasm to bother voting on this thing. I was leaning "yes", my brother was leaning "no", so since we'd cancel each other out... ;)

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0531/breaking3.html?via=mr

It will be interesting to see which constituency is most yes and which is most no. I think the yes title is once again between my home constituency, Dublin South, and our coastal neighbours, Dun Laoghaire, both constituencies being largely middle class paradises. The most "no" constituency is harder to predict, it could be Dublin North West, which is a working class hellhole which was the only constituency not to elect a Fine Gael TD, or Donegal South West, which elected a Sinn Fein TD and a de-facto Sinn Fein independent TD in the last election, but it's anyone's guess. Only Donegal northeast and southwest voted no to Lisbon 2.

At a guess:

High Yes: Dublin South, Dún Laoghaire, Dublin South East, Cork South Central, Mayo (Mayo loves its Messiah), Dublin North, Kildare North, Wicklow

In short: upper-middle class Dublin and Cork and their more prosperous surrounds, along with the Enda-worshippers.

High No: Donegal North East, Donegal South West, Roscommon/South Leitrim, Dublin South Central, Cork North Central, Dublin South West, Dublin North West, Cavan/Monaghan

In short: working-class urban-dwellers and the more alienated areas west of the Shannon.

Overall guess: 62% Yes on a 47% turnout. People are more cynical than in Lisbon 2, but more frightened.

Turnout likely to be well below 50% nationally. It was 52% at my local (very rural) polling station on the Leinster/Ulster border which generally manages 75% in general elections.

Turnout supposedly relatively higher in urban working-class areas which may be ominous for Yes (but then I seem to remember much the same being said on election night about Lisbon II which was 69% Yes).

"Secret" exit polls predict (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9304113/Irish-referendum-secret-polls-predict-Yes-vote-despite-low-turnout.html) Yes vote victory by 3-2 margin despite low turnout. No, I don't know what this "secret" thing is all about, and the article does not tell us.

cc: Jas

That sort of result, it seems, is the closest thing to conventional wisdom about what the result might be - at least on the side that thinks Yes will win.

I'm pretty doubtful any such exit poll actually exists, but thanks for the pointer.

Counting has been underway for just over half an hour.

Very, very early indications suggest to me a single digit win for Yes seems plausible.

()

Early tallies starting to appear...

Dublin Mid West - 8% Boxes Open: Yes 52% No 48%
Dublin North West: 10% Boxes Open - NO 52% Yes 47%
Wicklow - 17% Boxes Open: Yes 55% No 45%
Laois/Offaly: 9% Boxes Open , Yes 60% No 40%

Unkown how many boxes open...
Wexford: Yes 60% No 40%
Dublin Mid West: Yes 52% No 48%
Dublin North: No 60% Yes 40%

Dublin South: 7.7% Boxes Open, Yes 69% No 31%
Louth: 10% boxes open, Yes 52.03% No 47.97%

Limerick County - 60% Boxes Open: Yes 60% No 40%
Limerick City - 70% Boxes Open: Yes 57% No 43%

Mayo - 20% boxes open: Yes 68% No 31%
Dublin South Central - 20% boxes open: NO 67% Yes 32%

Why is there a box in the middle there? There are only two options.

Dublin Central - 23% boxes open: Yes 50% No 49%
Wicklow - 30% boxes open,  Yes 57%, No 43%
Donegal North East - 37% boxes opened: No 58% Yes 42%
Sligo-North Leitrim - 38% boxes open: Yes 55% No 45%
Roscommon/South Leitrim - 17% boxes open: Yes 60% No 40%

Doesn't Irish is spoken by only 1 to 5% of the population?

That particular voter, rather neatly, created the middle box to spoil the ballot accordingly.

Per last year's census (http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/census/documents/census2011pdr/Pdf%208%20Tables.pdf), 41.4% of the population claimed to be able to speak Irish - though only 1.3% claim to do so on a daily basis (outside of the education system).

Dublin North East - 5% boxes open: Yes 50% No 49%
Waterford - 41% boxes open: Yes 58% No 42%
Cork North Central - 10% boxes open: No 56% Yes 44%
Cork South Central - 18% Boxes Open: Yes 59% No 41%
Cork North West - 50% boxes Open: Yes 64% No 36%.
Cork East - 50% boxes open: - Yes 62% No 38%

Dún Laoghaire - 20% Boxes Open: Yes 70% No 30%
Kerry North/West Limerick - 40% Boxes Open: Yes 60% No 40%

That's a surprisingly big Yes number in Kerry N - tradionally one of the more 'euro-skeptic' constituencies.

Similarly, Cork in general (esp. NW, E, and NC) looks like showing very strong swings towards Yes compared to previous euro-referenda.

So basically Donegal and working-class Dublin vote no, middle class Dublin likes the thing, and the rest of Ireland swallows the poisonous medicine because their leaders told them to?

Basically. Though working-class Cork and some of the other border counties also seems to be "no" (or at least a lot closer than the national average).

Complete tallies...
Dublin West: Yes 58% No 42%
Cork North Central: No 59% Yes 41%

More complete tallies...
Cork East: Yes 60% No 40%.
Cork North West: Yes 66% No 34%
Cork South Central: Yes 61% No 39%
Kildare South: Yes 58% No 42%
Galway West: Yes 58% No 42%
Donegal South West: No 55% Yes 45%
Dublin North: Yes 64% No 36%
Dublin Mid-West: Yes 49% No 51%
Kerry North/West Limerick: Yes 60% No 40%
Wexford: Yes 58% No 42%

Louth - Yes 52% No 47%
Clare - Yes 65% No 45%
Tipperary North - Yes 64% No 36%

RESULT
Tipperary North:  60.65% - 39.35%

RESULTS
Limerick City: 60.69% - 39.31%
Galway East: 63.25%  - 36.75%

RESULT
Waterford:  57.66% - 42.34%

RESULT
Kildare North:  65.28% - 34.72%

---

For reference...

RTÉ's online results (http://www.rte.ie/news/fiscal-treaty/)

The Official Referendum Returning Officer's results website (http://www.referendum.ie/results-summary.php?ref=5)

Thanks for the tally Jas.   

Is Clare 35% No?

RESULTS
Donegal South West: 45.05% - 54.95%
Tipperary South: 65.58%  - 34.42%

Oops, indeed so.
Actually, more specifically the tally in Clare was 64.8 - 35.2.

RESULT
Dublin South West: 49.30% - 50.70%

RESULTS
Dublin Mid-West: 50.01% - 49.99%

YES carries Dublin MW by 5 votes.

RESULT
Dublin West: 58.18% - 41.82%

RESULTS
Cork South Central: 62.17% - 37.83%

RESULTS
Cork North Central: 52.00% - 48.00%

RESULT
Donegal North East: 44.37% - 55.63%

RESULT
Dublin Central: 53.53% - 46.47%

RESULTS
Kerry South: 64.67% - 35.33%
Sligo-North Leitrim: 60.32%  - 39.68%
Clare: 65.73%  - 34.27%

RESULT
Dún Laoghaire: 74.21% - 25.79%

RESULTS
Kerry North - West Limerick: 60.95% - 39.05%
Limerick County: 66.10%  - 33.90%

RESULTS
Dublin North: 60.43% - 39.57%
Dublin North Central: 62.28%  - 37.72%

RESULT
Dublin South East: 72.30% - 27.70%

RESULT
Dublin South: 75.84% - 24.16%

RESULTS
Kildare South: 58.36% - 41.64%
Dublin North East: 58.00%  - 42.00%

RESULT
Cavan-Monaghan: 57.58% - 42.42%

RESULT
Meath East: 62.64% - 37.36%

RESULTS
Roscommon-South Leitrim: 60.75% - 39.25%
Meath West: 56.58%  - 43.42%
Mayo: 67.24% - 32.76%

RESULTS
Dublin South Central: 50.90% - 49.10%

RESULTS
Louth: 52.75% - 47.25%
Dublin North West: 46.76%  - 53.24%
Galway West: 57.91% - 42.09%

35/43 constituencies declared

Awaiting: Carlow-Kilkenny, Cork East, Cork North West, Cork South West, Laois-Offaly, Longford-Westmeath, Wexford, and Wicklow.

RESULTS
Longford-Westmeath: 60.30% - 39.70%
Wexford: 57.81% - 42.19%
Cork East: 60.52% - 39.48%

38/43 constituencies declared

Awaiting:
Carlow-Kilkenny, Cork North West, Cork South West, Laois-Offaly, and Wicklow

RESULTS
Cork North West: 65.59% - 34.41%
Cork South West: 66.27% - 33.73%

40/43 constituencies declared

Awaiting:
Carlow-Kilkenny, Laois-Offaly, and Wicklow

RESULT
Wicklow: 60.88% - 39.12%

41/43 constituencies declared

Awaiting:
Carlow-Kilkenny and Laois-Offaly

Oh dear...


http://www.dw.de/dw/article/0,,15987594,00.html

RESULTS
Laois-Offaly: 59.64% - 40.36%
Carlow-Kilkenny: 63.29%  - 36.71%

Haha,  I think Enda would answer to any name that a German wants to call him. And if his surname was actually Kennedy they may even pay attention to him.

As for the vote, there is nothing really surprising. Perhaps a stronger yes vote in several constituencies than I would have thought.  One more rubber stamp for the loss of more sovereignty- although sadly some technocrat in Brussels will probably do a better job at governing....

NATIONAL RESULT

Electorate	3,144,828
Votes Cast	1,591,385	50.6%
Invalid Votes	7,206
Valid Votes	1,584,179
YES	955,091	60.29%
NO	629,088	39.71%

Highest Yes:

Dublin South 75.84
Dún Laoghaire 74.21
Dublin South East 72.30
Mayo 67.30
Cork South West 66.27
Limerick (County) 66.10
Clare 65.73
Cork North West 65.59
Tipperary North 65.58
Kildare North 65.28

Upper middle class Dublin monopolises the top three places, followed by the Enda-worshippers, five overwhelmingly rural Munster constituencies (farming incomes have been doing well over the last couple of years) and middle-class silicon-powered exurbia.

Highest No:

Donegal North East 55.63
Donegal South West 54.95
Dublin North West 53.24
Dublin South Central 50.90
Dublin South West 50.70
Dublin Mid West 49.99
Cork North Central 48.00
Louth 47.25
Dublin Central 46.47
Meath West 43.42

Alienated Donegal followed by two heavily working-class suburban Dublin city constituencies, two banlieue constituencies in Dublin county, the working-class side of Cork city, a mainly urban and peripheral Leinster county, inner-city Dublin, and the more rural and relatively less exurbified end of Meath. (Nine of the ten elected Sinn Féin TDs last year, and the only one which didn't will rectify its omission next time round.)

Looks like I got my constituency prediction spot on. I'm a little disappointed by the result, but I wasn't really that interested.

I slightly underestimated the turnout but overestimated the Yes vote.

Not surprised at Dublin South topping the list of Yes votes; it doesn't have as much of a working-class presence as the other two do, and it's mainly 40s-00s semi-d or detached suburbia which doesn't lend itself to boboism in the way that terraced housing (Rathmines, Ranelagh, South Circular Road in Dublin SE, the town centres in Dún L) does.

Surprisingly high Yes vote in Roscommon-South Leitrim which I'd have thought might have been more disenchanted; surprisingly high No vote in Dublin North (Claire Daly?) and Wicklow.

Given the overall tally, I'm kind of surprised that Leix-Offaly was very slightly below the national average. From my general perception I'd think it would have been around the 62-63% level.  
Small number of dissatisfied commuters or holders of vacant properties?

Much more straightforward; it's the reverse of Mayo's Enda-worship. Biffo Cowen is no longer Taoiseach so his constituents feel no need for loyalty.

Yeah, I thought that could have something to do with it but the Kings and Queens are still rural right? The scare tactics seem to work well on the muckers...;)

Up to a point. You have the outer fringes of Dublin commuterdom in places like Edenderry, Portarlington and Portlaoise (population up 40% in the space of 5 years to 20,000) which have rail and motorway connections to Dublin, and the population of Laois was the fastest-growing of any county at the last census.

The Yes campaign didn't do especially well in the midlands: Cavan-Monaghan, Meath West and Kildare South were well below the national average and Longford-Westmeath was just under it. The really "enthusiastic" rural areas were further south.

Negative Equity CentralMeath East by-election likely to be on March 27th (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2013/0305/breaking33.html).

Selected so far:

Thomas Byrne (FF - TD for the constituency between 2007 and 2011 and currently a Senator.)
Darren O'Rourke (SF - personal assistant to a SF TD, no electoral experience that I'm aware of.)
Seán Ó Buachalla (GP - stood at last two general elections here, obtaining 1.08% of the vote in 2011, finishing last of the nine candidates.)
Séamus McDonagh (WP - stood in Meath West at the 2011 general election and obtained 0.47%, finishing last of the thirteen candidates. The WP are the rump of old Sinn Féin who remained in the party after the fall of the Berlin Wall when almost all their then-TDs decamped on a rightward journey that has ended with them constituting the abject FG mudguard wing of the Labour Party. The rump's political stance is slightly, but only slightly, less Stalinist than the KKE.)

Two more candidates:

Ben Gilroy (Direct Democracy Ireland (http://directdemocracyireland.ie/))
Helen McEntee (FG - Fine Gael prove their opposition to business-as-usual politics by unanimously nominating the daughter of the former TD as the by-election candidate.)

Labour have still to nominate their sacrificial lamb tomorrow night.

A bit low for SF, waaaaay too high for Labour.

I'd expect SF to be up around 25 in the absence of any non-tinfoil-hatted, non-Stalinist protest alternative. Labour seem to be avoiding making an effort and are probably looking at mid single figures.

Yes! Jinx her with all your might!

Not at all manipulative video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfrYiqfeRg4

Labour finally select a candidate: Eoin Holmes, a county councillor since 2007.

Statistical profile of the constituency at:

http://census.cso.ie/sapmap2011/Results.aspx?Geog_Type=DC&Geog_Code=35 (http://census.cso.ie/sapmap2011/Results.aspx?Geog_Type=DC&Geog_Code=35)

Full list of nominations at:

http://www.meathreturningofficer.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=64&Itemid=68 (http://www.meathreturningofficer.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=64&Itemid=68)

Keddy (http://irishelectionliterature.wordpress.com/2010/12/08/charlie-keddy-independent-wiclow-2002-general-election/) and Tallon (http://www.dailyedge.ie/meet-dublin-west-independent-candidate-jim-tallon-as-knight-rider-263382-Oct2011/) are perennial candidates. There's no information about Martin.

O'Brien seems to be a letter (http://www.meathchronicle.ie/opinion/roundup/articles/2010/09/29/4000396-political-unity-needed-on-hospital/) writer (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/hilloftara/message/14260) to the local paper who had an abortive career (http://www.roscommonpeople.ie/itemdetail.asp?itemID=9117) as a Labour local election candidate in Roscommon in 2009 and an earlier terminated career (http://www.stirlingobserver.co.uk/stirling-news/local-news-stirling/news-stirling/2009/03/06/bizarre-o-brien-gets-council-ban-51226-23074092/) as a Labour councillor in Scotland.

()
Mr Keddy's photo for the ballot paper.

We don't have anyone in the Dáil who can compete with that beard.

I like the top comment.

I'm new to the board so I don't know if I'm stepping out of bounds or not, but it really seems like there's way too many topics in this thread.

Martin seems to be an ex-Labour member who's running as "Independent Labour" and whose leaflets use a Labour-ish house style.

http://irishelectionliterature.wordpress.com/2013/03/22/leaflet-from-mick-martin-independent-labour-2013-meath-east-by-election/ (http://irishelectionliterature.wordpress.com/2013/03/22/leaflet-from-mick-martin-independent-labour-2013-meath-east-by-election/)


He has a website....

http://coexistenceireland.com (http://coexistenceireland.com)

How has Fianna Fail recovered? I thought they were a dead party walking, it's hilarious. Can anyone explain it to me? Thanks!

Recovered isn't really accurate because even their best polls have them far weaker than what would once have been a poor election for them. But, basically, look at the current government and how its done. And then note that the only other party is the Shinners, who are still (aha) beyond the pale for many voters.

Oh no, they're inside now, as Christopher Marlowe accurately foretold:

Meath East, or at least its southern two-thirds, was in the pale, of course. The Shinners have already penetrated Louth and Meath West; Kildare will be more stubborn.

Although the media consensus seems to be that it's neck and neck between FF and FG for the seat, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Shinners poll well (their candidate is originally from Kells - thumbtacked onto Meath East in the last boundary revision - but is now the only candidate living in the southern, Dublin-exurban portion). I also wouldn't be surprised to see Labour fighting it out for fourth place with the tin-foil hat brigade Direct Democracy Ireland.