Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on September 16, 2011, 10:54:02 AM



Title: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 16, 2011, 10:54:02 AM
46% - Obama
39% - Perry

46% - Obama
33% - Bachmann

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on September 16, 2011, 10:55:39 AM
...and trails Romney by 3

40% - Obama
43% - Romney



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on September 16, 2011, 12:22:49 PM
inb4 Krazen and Umengus call this poll a joke because the sample isn't R+20


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lincoln Republican on September 16, 2011, 07:33:34 PM
Bottom line, Romney is the only Republican who is outpolling Obama, and is very likely the only Republican who can defeat Obama.

The question Republicans should be asking themselves is do they want to nominate an ideological loser or a pragmatic winner?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The_Texas_Libertarian on September 16, 2011, 07:47:08 PM
Yet another poll that indicates Romney is the better choice for the GOP


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 17, 2011, 09:19:39 AM
What the hell? Scott gave up on pushing the "Perry is a stronger candidate in the general" meme already? Fascinating.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Vosem on September 17, 2011, 07:43:01 PM
Bottom line, Romney is the only Republican who is outpolling Obama, and is very likely the only Republican who can defeat Obama.

The question Republicans should be asking themselves is do they want to nominate an ideological loser or a pragmatic winner?

Bottom line is that if the economy is bad enough, then any candidate can defeat OBOMB BOMB BOMB BOMB IRAN!a.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on September 17, 2011, 07:51:40 PM
Aug 15-16, 2011

Obama 39%
Paul 38%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 20, 2011, 11:24:45 AM
Sep 18-19, 2011

44% - Obama
41% - Romney

Sep 16-17, 2011

43% Obama
35% Huntsman

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 20, 2011, 12:38:03 PM
The question Republicans should be asking themselves is do they want to nominate an ideological loser or a pragmatic winner?

Perry's never lost an election. Romney has.

Ideological winner or a pragmatic loser.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: opebo on September 21, 2011, 04:47:55 AM
I don't think which Republican is the candidate is going to matter much.  It will be a referendum on Obama, and that looks like at best in the mid-to-upper fourties percent of the vote right now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The_Texas_Libertarian on September 21, 2011, 11:46:44 AM
The question Republicans should be asking themselves is do they want to nominate an ideological loser or a pragmatic winner?

Perry's never lost an election. Romney has.

Ideological winner or a pragmatic loser.

Perry has not lost as a conservative in a conservative state and Romney lost to one of the biggest Democratic names, Ted Kennedy, in a Democratic state.

Not exactly a proper comparison


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 23, 2011, 01:18:31 PM
Obama is further increasing his lead against Bachmann:

48% Obama
32% Bachmann

85% of Democrats favors Obama, while just 59% of Republicans support Bachmann.  Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Obama posts a 42% to 31% lead over the congresswoman.

The president holds a double-digit advantage over Bachmann among both male and female voters.  She trails badly among voters under 40 but is more competitive among older voters.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 20-21, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 26, 2011, 01:29:56 PM
New Obama/Perry poll:

44% Obama
38% Perry

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on September 26, 2011, 01:31:55 PM
We get it. Obama would beat both Perry and Bachmann pretty easily. Why does Scott continue to poll them all the time?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 26, 2011, 01:32:55 PM
We get it. Obama would beat both Perry and Bachmann pretty easily. Why does Scott continue to poll them all the time?

Maybe he'll start a daily tracking poll soon ... :P

It seems he already started a weekly tracking poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 27, 2011, 11:28:08 AM
Sep 24-25, 2011:

44% Obama
34% Paul

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on September 28, 2011, 06:14:20 PM
2012 Presidential Matchups
Obama 39% Cain 34%

Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on September 28, 2011, 06:27:31 PM
Lol Rasmussen


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on September 28, 2011, 07:53:20 PM
Bradley deluge!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on September 28, 2011, 08:02:10 PM
This.  Also, I like how neither candidate polls above 40%.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: defe07 on September 29, 2011, 01:35:01 PM

Maybe a rich, Northeastern white third party candidate does exceptionally well and gobbles up the remaining 27%! :P


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on September 29, 2011, 01:37:22 PM

because Herman Cain is not (yet) a household name


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Link on September 29, 2011, 01:45:31 PM

because Herman Cain is not (yet) a household name

Yes once people hear more about Cain the poll will change...

75% Obama   20 % Cain


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 30, 2011, 12:01:23 PM
44% Romney
42% Obama
  8% Others
  7% Undecided

44% Obama
43% Christie
  6% Others
  8% Undecided

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 28-29, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 04, 2011, 08:04:13 AM
Obama vs. Perry is now 43-37.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 05, 2011, 12:08:12 PM
45% Obama
34% Frothy Mix

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 10, 2011, 11:04:53 AM
Obama 42%, Cain 39%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on October 10, 2011, 01:53:54 PM
How many aa`s who participated in this poll knew that Cain himself is black?

Did Rasmussen ask: “If the election was held today do you prefer Barack Obama or Herman Cain?”

or

“If the election was held today do you prefer Barack Obama who had a white mother and whose Kenyan father’s ancestors never were slaves or do you prefer the fully black man Herman Cain whose ancesters were slaves?”


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2011, 11:04:33 AM
Obama 43%, Romney 41%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 12, 2011, 11:20:20 AM
Obama 49% Perry 35%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 12, 2011, 04:42:20 PM

I kind of doubt Obama is that far ahead of him.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 14, 2011, 11:41:13 AM
How many aa`s who participated in this poll knew that Cain himself is black?

Did Rasmussen ask: “If the election was held today do you prefer Barack Obama or Herman Cain?”

or

“If the election was held today do you prefer Barack Obama who had a white mother and whose Kenyan father’s ancestors never were slaves or do you prefer the fully black man Herman Cain whose ancesters were slaves apparently appeased segregation?”



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 14, 2011, 12:04:58 PM
Obama 49%, Gingrich 34%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 17, 2011, 11:23:25 AM
Cain 43% Obama 41%

Seriously.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on October 17, 2011, 11:30:44 AM

Looks like Häagen-Dazs' Black Walnut is beating out Baskin Robins OREO Treat


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 17, 2011, 11:32:21 AM

Looks like Häagen-Dazs' Black Walnut is beating out Baskin Robins OREO Treat

Or Scott is up to his usual trolling games a year out from an election.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 18, 2011, 11:55:32 AM
Obama 43% Romney 42%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on October 18, 2011, 12:06:24 PM
Herman Cain: Strongest Republican Candidate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 24, 2011, 11:12:05 AM
Cain now trails by 6.

44-38


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 24, 2011, 11:17:09 AM


Time for November's flavour of the month to start their momentum.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 25, 2011, 12:30:06 PM
Obama 39%, Huntsman 32%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 25, 2011, 12:53:38 PM

NOOOOOOOOO

Seriously though, he must just be making this crap up at this point.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on October 26, 2011, 11:15:47 AM
2012 Presidential Matchups
Romney 44%, Obama 42%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 28, 2011, 11:26:58 AM
Obama 45%, Perry 38%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 31, 2011, 11:38:36 AM
Obama 44%, Paul 35%

In the latest matchup with Paul, Obama draws support from 84% of Democrats, while the Texan is favored by just 64% of voters in his party. Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, the president leads 44% to 34%.

Obama holds a 21-point lead over Paul among female voters.  Paul edges the president by three points among male voters.

The president leads among voters in every age group but holds a two-to-one lead among those under 30.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on November 03, 2011, 11:41:15 AM
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Rasmussen)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 42%
Mitt Romney (R) 41%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 07, 2011, 12:26:50 PM
Obama 44%, Gingrich 38%

11% prefer some other candidate, and 6% are undecided. Gingrich leads the president by four points among male voters but trails by 16 among female voters. Obama leads among voters in all age groups except retirees.

While Gingrich has the support of 73% of Republican voters, the president has the backing of 86% of Democrats and holds a six-point lead – 41% to 35% - among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. In terms of voter income, Gingrich’s support is higher among those who earn more than $60,000 per year.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ChiefTuscaloosa on November 09, 2011, 03:37:53 PM
CA trash poll - Obama tops generic Republican, 45-41%  

(Not many more posts before I can post a link. Ugh...)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on November 10, 2011, 12:37:15 PM
In Florida, Obama Trails Generic Republican by Six

in the swing state of Florida, President Obama’s job approval rating is below the 50% mark and the economy is the top issue on the minds of voters.

New Rasmussen Reports polling data shows that 47% of Florida’s Likely Voters approve of the way the president is handling his job and 52% disapprove.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/in_florida_obama_trails_generic_republican_by_six


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 10, 2011, 12:40:55 PM
Didn't even know they were running.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on November 10, 2011, 12:44:10 PM

generick republican = jmfcst

but, you're right, I'm not running


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on November 10, 2011, 12:44:42 PM
In Florida, Obama Trails Generic Republican by Six

in the swing state of Florida, President Obama’s job approval rating is below the 50% mark and the economy is the top issue on the minds of voters.

New Rasmussen Reports polling data shows that 47% of Florida’s Likely Voters approve of the way the president is handling his job and 52% disapprove.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/in_florida_obama_trails_generic_republican_by_six


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on November 11, 2011, 08:37:15 PM
Obama Trails Generic Republican in Ohio

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_generic_presidential_ballot


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on November 11, 2011, 08:37:58 PM
Obama Trails Generic Republican in Ohio

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_generic_presidential_ballot


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on November 11, 2011, 08:38:25 PM
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Rasmussen)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 43%
Mitt Romney (R) 42%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on November 11, 2011, 08:58:24 PM
Ohio (Rasmussen):

46% Approve
54% Disapprove

Ohio voters currently favor a Generic Republican over the president by a 46% to 41% margin. Four percent (4%) prefer a third option, while 10% are undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_generic_presidential_ballot


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Saxwsylvania on November 11, 2011, 10:30:44 PM
I guess Scott decided to throw out the actual head-to-head results, so he gave us this garbage instead.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on November 11, 2011, 10:38:54 PM
Generic Republican isn't running this year.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 11, 2011, 11:20:47 PM

Exactly.  Hillary2012 is just desperate to get the browns out of government.  


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 14, 2011, 12:33:16 PM
50% Obama
38% Grinch

This marks Obama's best showing in recent weeks against any of the GOP presidential contenders.

In the latest matchup with Gingrich, Obama posts double-digit leads among both male voters (53% to 39%) and female voters (48% to 37%).

Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Obama holds a 46% to 37% advantage.

Most blacks (95%) and voters of other races (61%) support Obama, while white voters prefer Gingrich by four points.

Obama holds a three-point lead among homeowners but leads by more than a three-to-one-margin among non-homeowners.  Most gun owners support Gingrich, while the president leads among those who do not own a gun.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 14, 2011, 01:04:34 PM
PENNSYLVANIA:

45% Generic Republican
42% Obama

Just 48% of Likely Voters in the state approve of the way that the president is performing his job, while 51% disapprove, according to new Rasmussen Reports polling data. Those figures include 19% who Strongly Approve and 39% who Strongly Disapprove, giving the president an Approval Index rating of -20.

The president trails by 15 points among white voters in Pennsylvania. Scott Rasmussen explains that “the most important demographic in the nation to watch are white working class Democrats. They voted for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic primaries, for President Obama in the general election and for Republicans in 2010.”

Only 14% of voters in Pennsylvania believe the country is generally heading in the right direction. Seventy-seven percent (77%) say the nation has gotten off on the wrong track. Again, those numbers are similar to the national average.

Most Pennsylvania voters (51%) name the economy as the most important issue for the upcoming election. Twenty percent (20%) say their top priority is fiscal policy issues such as taxes and government spending, while 14% name domestic issues such as Social Security and health care. Just six percent (6%) view national security issues as the top priority, while cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion are most important for three percent (3%).

The number considering fiscal policy issues as most important is higher than in Ohio or Florida.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_generic_presidential_ballot


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on November 15, 2011, 03:50:59 PM
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Rasmussen)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 46%
Herman Cain (R) 36%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on November 16, 2011, 06:39:00 PM
As President Obama seeks re-election, a couple of traditionally Democratic states may be more competitive than usual.

In 2008, the president won Michigan’s Electoral College votes by sixteen percentage points but most Michigan voters now disapprove of the way he’s handled his tenure in the White House. Just 47% of Likely Voters in the state approve of the way that the president is performing his job, while 52% disapprove, according to new Rasmussen Reports polling data.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/michigan/michigan_president_tied_with_generic_republican


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 17, 2011, 12:59:19 PM
Obama 45%, Bachmann 33%

President Obama holds a 42% to 37% advantage over Bachmann among men and a 49% to 30% lead among women.

Bachmann draws support from just 65% of Republican voters, while Obama is favored by 82% of Democrats. In fact, one in five GOP voters (20%) opts for a third-party candidate in a Bachmann-Obama matchup. Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Obama leads the congresswoman 45% to 26%.

Voters under the age of 40 support the president, while Bachmann holds a modest advantage among older voters.  Most black voters (93%) and voters of other races (59%) favor Obama, while white voters are evenly divided on which candidate they support. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 18, 2011, 03:09:15 PM
North Carolina:

Generic Republican 44%, Obama 42%

Just 46% of North Carolina voters approve of the way that the president is performing his job, while 52% disapprove. Those figures include 27% who Strongly Approve and 43% who Strongly Disapprove, giving the president an Approval Index rating of -16. Those numbers are broadly similar to Obama's national job approval ratings, confirming North Carolina’s role as a swing state for 2012. The importance of North Carolina to the White House was highlighted by the decision to select Charlotte as the site for the Democratic National Convention.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was derived from nightly presidential tracking poll surveys conducted October 19-November 17, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Twenty percent (20%) of voters in the Tar Heel State believe the country is generally heading in the right direction. Seventy-four percent (74%) say the nation has gotten off on the wrong track. Again, those numbers are similar to the national average and states like Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Most North Carolina voters (51%) name the economy as the most important issue for the upcoming election. Fifteen percent (15%) say their top priority is fiscal policy issues such as taxes and government spending, while another 15% cite domestic issues such as Social Security and health care. Cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion are most important for five percent (5%). Just four percent (4%) view national security issues as most important.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2012_north_carolina_generic_presidential_ballot


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on November 21, 2011, 06:18:33 PM
Election 2012: Obama 46%, Gingrich 40%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on November 28, 2011, 04:18:13 PM
Election 2012: Obama 46%, Cain 36%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on November 30, 2011, 12:04:44 PM
Gingrich 45% Obama 43%

"Gingrich currently attracts 79% of the Republican vote in a match-up against Obama. The former House Speaker also leads by 18 points among unaffiliated voters. The president is supported by 90% of Democrats."

Ok ... :P


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 30, 2011, 12:08:30 PM
Gingrich 45% Obama 43%

"Gingrich currently attracts 79% of the Republican vote in a match-up against Obama. The former House Speaker also leads by 18 points among unaffiliated voters. The president is supported by 90% of Democrats."

Ok ... :P

LOL Rass


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on November 30, 2011, 04:24:10 PM
I'm glad we've largely confined Rasmussen's trolling to this thread.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 30, 2011, 05:45:59 PM
So predictable.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on December 01, 2011, 01:49:55 AM


The end of  the NBA lockout seems to really have rocked the Obama campaign.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on December 08, 2011, 11:38:21 AM
Rasmussen coming out at Noon –
Obama 45%
Gingrich 40%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 13, 2011, 01:47:11 PM
Romney 45%, Obama 42%

Obama 43%, Paul 35%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 19, 2011, 12:09:55 PM
For KP:

Obama 47%, Santorum 37%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on December 20, 2011, 04:31:11 PM
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Rasmussen)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
Newt Gingrich (R) 37%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on December 21, 2011, 06:09:07 PM
Santorum polls better against the Prez than Newt does.
()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 29, 2011, 10:10:46 AM
In Rasmussenfantasyworld, Romney now leads Obama by 45-39 ...

Also, new IA poll out in a few hours.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on December 30, 2011, 08:04:03 AM
Update III: Rasmussen informs me that the D/R/I in this sample is 33/34/33, which is very close to the 35/35/29 from the midterms.  If anything, it might oversample independents just a bit, but otherwise looks pretty solid.

source: hotair.com


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on January 05, 2012, 07:27:00 PM
Obama 42%
Romney 42%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/2012_presidential_matchups


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on January 22, 2012, 01:45:57 PM
Romney 44/Obama 44
Gingrich 40/ Obama 47

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 02, 2012, 09:42:37 AM
Rasmussen once again made their tracking sample more Republican-leaning:

It's now 35.9% GOP, 32.5% DEM and 31.6% IND.

And that's among ADULTS surveyed. Their LV tracking model is even more Republican.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on February 04, 2012, 01:17:46 PM
Santorum 45%, Obama 44%
Obama 45%, Paul 42%
Obama 47%, Romney 43%
Obama 49%, Gingrich 41%

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Santorum's first ever lead over Obama in a national poll! LOL!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on February 04, 2012, 03:37:23 PM
Santorum 45%, Obama 44%
Obama 45%, Paul 42%
Obama 47%, Romney 43%
Obama 49%, Gingrich 41%

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Santorum's first ever lead over Obama in a national poll! LOL!


This might actually be correct.   Santorum is the only one whose name isn't being thrown into the mud right now (ironic, i know).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on February 04, 2012, 03:39:19 PM
Santorum 45%, Obama 44%
Obama 45%, Paul 42%
Obama 47%, Romney 43%
Obama 49%, Gingrich 41%

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Santorum's first ever lead over Obama in a national poll! LOL!


This might actually be correct.   Santorum is the only one whose name isn't being thrown into the mud right now (ironic, i know).

Doesn't fit with any of the other national or state polling that has included him though.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: colincb on February 05, 2012, 03:49:53 PM
Rasmussen hits a new low for credibility.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 10, 2012, 09:59:33 AM
Obama opens up a 10-point lead against Romney:

50-40

"This is the largest lead the president has enjoyed against Romney in regular polling going back more than a year. It’s also the first time that the president has reached the 50% level of support against Romney."

And Obama leads Santorum by 4:

46-42

"Last week, Santorum had a one-point advantage over Obama. However, like Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich before him, Santorum was unable to sustain that advantage beyond a single poll."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on February 11, 2012, 11:02:01 AM
50% Approve of Obama in Ohio, 44% Say Same of Kasich

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/50_approve_of_obama_in_ohio_44_say_same_of_kasich


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 12, 2012, 12:27:52 PM
Both Romney and Santorum now trail Obama by 48-41.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 5280 on February 27, 2012, 12:36:28 PM
Obama approval at 45%, the lowest in a month. Trailing Romney and Ron Paul. 

Romney 45% Obama 43%
Paul 43% Obama 41%
Obama 45% Santorum 43%
Obama 49% Gingrich 39%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: CatoMinor on February 28, 2012, 12:47:26 AM

Those 43% who said Paul clearly don't count becuase Paul cannot win. Just ignore them.  Nothing to see here.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 01, 2012, 04:26:43 PM

Those 43% who said Paul clearly don't count becuase Paul cannot win. Just ignore them.  Nothing to see here.

Ron Paul is so the new Bill Clinton.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: marvelrobbins on March 04, 2012, 11:09:13 AM
Current Poll numbers

Obama 47% Romney 43 %

Obama 47 % Santorum 43 %


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on March 10, 2012, 10:28:10 AM
Quote
Today's numbers show Romney at 48%, Obama at 43%. That’s Romney’s largest lead since December.

If Santorum is the Republican nominee, he is up by one point over the president, 46% to 45%. This is the second time since polling began in 2011 that Santorum has had a slight lead over Obama.

I remember that Romney and Santorum were down by 6-8 about 3 days ago.

Either a HUGE Super Tuesday BOUNCE for both of them, or WHACKO SCOTTY TROLLING.

I believe it's the latter.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on March 10, 2012, 11:19:07 AM
Quote
Today's numbers show Romney at 48%, Obama at 43%. That’s Romney’s largest lead since December.

If Santorum is the Republican nominee, he is up by one point over the president, 46% to 45%. This is the second time since polling began in 2011 that Santorum has had a slight lead over Obama.

I remember that Romney and Santorum were down by 6-8 about 3 days ago.

Either a HUGE Super Tuesday BOUNCE for both of them, or WHACKO SCOTTY TROLLING.

I believe it's the latter.

So, in effect, something like, an 11-point swing from Obama (-5) to Romney (+6) and an 8-point swing from Obama (-4) to Santorum (+4) over the past four days, while the president's approval has slipped (49-50) -1 to -10 (44-54)

Rather puzzling, given that nothing has happened for the worse that should have caused such a movement


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: marvelrobbins on March 10, 2012, 03:14:16 PM
Other they giving Republicans a good showing no nothing drastic has happened.In a few days
It will change.RAs goes from good days to Obama to bad and then back to good.This will
continue till Fall when RAS won't want to be seen as outliner.

Nate Silver called RAS one of most biased pollsters based on 2010 results.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on March 10, 2012, 03:28:51 PM
Didn't Scott change his sample to a ridiculous R+5?  Romney +5 is a tie.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on March 10, 2012, 08:12:37 PM

Those 43% who said Paul clearly don't count becuase Paul cannot win. Just ignore them.  Nothing to see here.

Basing your electability arguments off of a Rasmussen poll is pretty pathetic.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on March 10, 2012, 08:27:08 PM
Current Poll numbers

Obama 47% Romney 43 %

Obama 47 % Santorum 43 %

And yet just yesterday Rasmussen said that Obama led by four in FL, OH, NC and VA, four populous states located right in the middle of the left-right spectrum in America. Hmmm...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: marvelrobbins on March 13, 2012, 09:13:50 AM
After having Obama down he has started to recover.

He and Romney tied at 45 %

Obama 47% Santorum 42%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ill ind on March 13, 2012, 02:24:01 PM
  And so the Rassmussen patented sin wave tracking poll continues onward.

Ill_Ind


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on March 25, 2012, 09:37:38 AM
In a hypothetical 2012 matchup, Mitt Romney leads President Obama by two percentage points, 45% to 43%. If Rick Santorum, the winner of yesterday's Louisiana Republican Primary, is the GOP nominee, the president leads 47% to 42%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: marvelrobbins on March 26, 2012, 10:58:51 AM
RAs has swung again

Obama 46% Romney 43 %
Obama 49% Santorum 41 %

So what exactly has changed In last couple of days to go from Romney by 2 to Obama by 3?

Untill late october expect RAs to go back and forth In national polls between Obama and Romney.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 10, 2012, 05:06:15 PM
Gallup will begin their nightly tracking of the Romney vs. Obama race on Wednesday night with their first results being released on Monday. I figure we could use a thread to put the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls daily.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 10, 2012, 06:25:41 PM
Oh lord, not more Gallup "polling."


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 10, 2012, 08:54:16 PM
Good God. Remember their "traditional"/"expanded" fiasco in 2008?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 11, 2012, 12:12:10 AM
Rowan, I've merged the 2 threads (Rasmussen and Gallup) and re-named it " National Tracking Poll Thread", because in the future there will be other tracking polls as well that we can put in here.

But for now, please post the Rasmussen and Gallup stuff in here if you like.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 11, 2012, 12:14:29 AM
Good God. Remember their "traditional"/"expanded" fiasco in 2008?

Yeah, not only in 2008, also in 2010.

Remember when they had about 3 different models to forecast the "generic GOP lead" - one of them even had the GOP winning Congress by about 18 (they actually won by 6).

Gallup is just a crack pollster to me sometimes.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on April 11, 2012, 12:42:12 AM
Good God. Remember their "traditional"/"expanded" fiasco in 2008?

Yeah, not only in 2008, also in 2010.

Remember when they had about 3 different models to forecast the "generic GOP lead" - one of them even had the GOP winning Congress by about 18 (they actually won by 6).

Gallup is just a crack pollster to me sometimes.
Mind you, then the alternative seems to be Rasmussen, who weights for party ID, which has methodological issues of its own. In the end, I'm glad for a lot of variety in how pollsters do their work.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on April 11, 2012, 11:53:44 AM
I, for one, welcome our Gallup tracking lords.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: AmericanNation on April 13, 2012, 11:50:23 AM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

FOX News                   4/9 - 4/11            910 RV   44   46   Romney +2
Rasmussen Tracking   4/10 - 4/12        1500 LV   44   48   Romney +4

I thought it would take longer than 2 days for Romney to overtake the president.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on April 13, 2012, 11:51:44 AM
Two Republican pollsters. Wait until the real ones come out with their numbers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: AmericanNation on April 13, 2012, 12:09:10 PM
So you think it will average a PUSH ?? with Romney trending ahead? Still, these polls are only catching part of the last two days momentum.  I wonder how much legs this run will have.  The upside is the state polls will probably start to catch up to the reality that this is now a general election.   


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on April 13, 2012, 12:23:43 PM
I am not saying that Romney isn't leading. But I will wait until a different, non-republican pollsters shows the same numbers. Until then, well, it's Fox and Rasmussen. And Rasmussen numbers don't make sense. If Obama is trailing Romney nationally by 4, he should be trailing Romney by at least 6 in North Carolina, and not by 2.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: AmericanNation on April 13, 2012, 01:31:29 PM
I know what your thinking, but it is actually likely that other parts of the country would break toward Romney more/faster than NC.  This isn't Bush who would distort 'Dixie'/'Tidewater' toward him more/faster.   


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on April 13, 2012, 01:43:04 PM
I know what your thinking, but it is actually likely that other parts of the country would break toward Romney more/faster than NC.  This isn't Bush who would distort 'Dixie'/'Tidewater' toward him more/faster.   

You claims have no evidence, but that's not really important.   These two polls have the following:

  • Rasmussen -- uses a likely voter sample of R+5 because he believes it will be a strong Republican turnout year, his approval poll currently has Obama underwater -6 with this same sample
  • FOX News -- Obama -9 approval in this sample
  • In the news, this week Romney sealed the nomination with a Santorum drop out.  He has the "Big Mo'".

Romney + nomination momentum + Obama 7.5 underwater in approval = a 3 point lead.

I'm sure Obama is completely fine with performing this strong in such a scenario.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 16, 2012, 12:59:09 PM
Gallup still hasn't released tracking poll numbers, over an hour after they said they'd be available, that I can see. Or, there are numbers in that area on the site, but they appear to be from late March.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 16, 2012, 01:13:04 PM
Obama up by 8 in new national poll:



Investor's Business Journal/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP
 3/30-4/5/12; 816 registered voters, 3.3% margin of error
 Mode: Live telephone interviews
 TIPP release (http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/obama-leads-romney-46-to-38)

National

2012 President
 46% Obama (D), 38% Romney (R) (chart)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 16, 2012, 01:26:45 PM
Romney leads 47-45, per Gallup. Didn't see it posted on here.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2012, 01:42:29 PM
Romney leads 47-45, per Gallup. Didn't see it posted on here.

That's the first time since last September that Romney has led in 3 consecutive polls.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on April 16, 2012, 01:46:00 PM
So I guess Gallup is on the Republican pollster conspiracy against Obama? Of course as soon as PPP shows Obama ahead it will be completely legit, with no mention of the fact that it is a democratic polling firm.

Anyway, fantastic news. I feel like dancing.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cavalcade on April 16, 2012, 01:50:12 PM
Nomination bump (Newt/Rick people used to be undecided/Obama, now they are solidly committed to Romney), nomination bounce (indys are like, oh, I hear this Romney guy just got the nomination, I'll say him), or tax season effect (f***ing Obama taking my hard earned money)?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 16, 2012, 03:47:50 PM
I wonder how many Rick Santorum/Newt Gingrich supporters said when answering on Romney/Obama that they were undecided or even voting for Obama, simply as a ploy to try and make Romney appear weaker in a General Election. It certainly crossed my mind, tbh.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on April 16, 2012, 03:58:37 PM
Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on April 16, 2012, 04:01:36 PM
Obama up by 8 in new national poll:



Investor's Business Journal/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP
 3/30-4/5/12; 816 registered voters, 3.3% margin of error
 Mode: Live telephone interviews
 TIPP release (http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/obama-leads-romney-46-to-38)

Gah! That 38% number isn't good for Romney. What's the track record on this group's polling?

National

2012 President
 46% Obama (D), 38% Romney (R) (chart)



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on April 16, 2012, 04:05:37 PM
So I guess Gallup is on the Republican pollster conspiracy against Obama? Of course as soon as PPP shows Obama ahead it will be completely legit, with no mention of the fact that it is a democratic polling firm.

If PPP revealed their name stood for Phony Politically-Driven Polls, it wouldn't change fact that they had the best track record last 2 cycles and have more credibility than any other pollster.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 16, 2012, 04:31:05 PM
Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.

This "outrageous tax" by any chance?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153887/Americans-Favor-Buffett-Rule.aspx

The bills have got to be paid. The cost of, and the response to, the 'Crash of 2008' and the ensuring Great Recession was never going to come cheap. And that's the harsh reality of it


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on April 16, 2012, 04:50:25 PM
Just to keep it interesting... here's the latest CNN poll:
Obama 52
Romney 43

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/16/rel4a.pdf.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on April 16, 2012, 04:53:35 PM
Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.

This "outrageous tax" by any chance?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153887/Americans-Favor-Buffett-Rule.aspx

The bills have got to be paid. The cost of, and the response to, the 'Crash of 2008' and the ensuring Great Recession was never going to come cheap. And that's the harsh reality of it

"Junk poll!  Junk poll!  Outlier!  Outlier!"


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 16, 2012, 05:05:52 PM
As always, it's the state polls that matter anyway. [/2000]


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on April 16, 2012, 05:06:18 PM
As always, it's the state polls that matter anyway. [/2000]

This thread is useless.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: argentarius on April 16, 2012, 05:21:13 PM
For god's sake guys it clearly matters if one guy is up on another guy nationally. If someone wins the PV by 1 percent I guarantee they'll win the EV.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on April 16, 2012, 05:24:55 PM
For god's sake guys it clearly matters if one guy is up on another guy nationally. If someone wins the PV by 1 percent I guarantee they'll win the EV.

Uh, nope. While he prevailed by 2.4% in the PV, Bush would have lost Ohio if you moved about 60k votes to the other side. In 1876, Tilden won the PV with over 3%.

In theory you could obtain a majority of the EVs with only around 24% of the PV.

Again, the PV is useless.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on April 16, 2012, 05:29:02 PM
Just to keep it interesting... here's the latest CNN poll:
Obama 52
Romney 43

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/16/rel4a.pdf.

Crap poll. CNN hasn't exactly been the gold standard in national polling.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on April 16, 2012, 05:38:22 PM
Just to keep it interesting... here's the latest CNN poll:
Obama 52
Romney 43

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/16/rel4a.pdf.

Crap poll. CNN hasn't exactly been the gold standard in national polling.

Well, we'll never know if they were right or not, will we? Putting all of the polls together, we're left with a race somewhere between "Romney leads by 2-3 points" and "Obama leads by 10," depending partly on methodologies and assumptions. Seems reasonable enough to me.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on April 16, 2012, 05:45:18 PM
Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.

This "outrageous tax" by any chance?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153887/Americans-Favor-Buffett-Rule.aspx

The bills have got to be paid. The cost of, and the response to, the 'Crash of 2008' and the ensuring Great Recession was never going to come cheap. And that's the harsh reality of it

We tried that already. It was called the alternative minimum tax and was passed due to a few hundred millionaires. Now it affects thousands of middle class individuals.

Fool me once...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 16, 2012, 05:45:45 PM
Just to keep it interesting... here's the latest CNN poll:
Obama 52
Romney 43

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/16/rel4a.pdf.

This is telling

Obama vote: 76% for Obama; 23% against Romney

Romney vote: 35% for Romney; 63% against Obama


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on April 16, 2012, 05:47:15 PM
Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.

This "outrageous tax" by any chance?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153887/Americans-Favor-Buffett-Rule.aspx

The bills have got to be paid. The cost of, and the response to, the 'Crash of 2008' and the ensuring Great Recession was never going to come cheap. And that's the harsh reality of it

"Junk poll!  Junk poll!  Outlier!  Outlier!"

It doesn't have to be, no. But the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters in 2010 and surely is banking on those gains for 2012. The best way to lock in those gains is to point out these confiscatory taxes.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on April 16, 2012, 05:47:33 PM
Just to keep it interesting... here's the latest CNN poll:
Obama 52
Romney 43

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/16/rel4a.pdf.

Crap poll. CNN hasn't exactly been the gold standard in national polling.

"Junk poll!  Junk poll!  Outlier!  Outlier!"


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on April 16, 2012, 05:48:48 PM
Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.

This "outrageous tax" by any chance?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153887/Americans-Favor-Buffett-Rule.aspx

The bills have got to be paid. The cost of, and the response to, the 'Crash of 2008' and the ensuring Great Recession was never going to come cheap. And that's the harsh reality of it

"Junk poll!  Junk poll!  Outlier!  Outlier!"

It doesn't have to be, no. But the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters in 2010 and surely is banking on those gains for 2012. The best way to lock in those gains is to point out these confiscatory taxes.

1%ers have been voting Republican for years.  This is a well-known fact.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on April 16, 2012, 05:50:56 PM
Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.

This "outrageous tax" by any chance?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153887/Americans-Favor-Buffett-Rule.aspx

The bills have got to be paid. The cost of, and the response to, the 'Crash of 2008' and the ensuring Great Recession was never going to come cheap. And that's the harsh reality of it

"Junk poll!  Junk poll!  Outlier!  Outlier!"

It doesn't have to be, no. But the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters in 2010 and surely is banking on those gains for 2012. The best way to lock in those gains is to point out these confiscatory taxes.

1%ers have been voting Republican for years.  This is a well-known fact.

Actually, GOP gains occurred heavily among the top 40% or so.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on April 16, 2012, 05:54:12 PM
Romney is on the rise.

This is possibly due to Obama threatening the public with outrageous tax. In 2010 the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters compared to 2008.

This "outrageous tax" by any chance?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153887/Americans-Favor-Buffett-Rule.aspx

The bills have got to be paid. The cost of, and the response to, the 'Crash of 2008' and the ensuring Great Recession was never going to come cheap. And that's the harsh reality of it

"Junk poll!  Junk poll!  Outlier!  Outlier!"

It doesn't have to be, no. But the Republican party made landslide gains among successful high income voters in 2010 and surely is banking on those gains for 2012. The best way to lock in those gains is to point out these confiscatory taxes.

1%ers have been voting Republican for years.  This is a well-known fact.

Actually, GOP gains occurred heavily among the top 40% or so.


The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on April 16, 2012, 05:58:18 PM
The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on April 16, 2012, 06:00:11 PM
The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on April 16, 2012, 07:11:55 PM
The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.

Uh huh. That's why of course outrageous tax policies fail even in King County.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 16, 2012, 07:13:17 PM
The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.

Uh huh. That's why of course outrageous tax policies fail even in King County.

I'm sure a tax policy that was outrageous would.

Out of curiosity, under what circumstances, if any, would you actually accept a marginal tax increase on the highest bracket or couple of brackets?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 16, 2012, 07:14:25 PM
The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.

Uh huh. That's why of course outrageous tax policies fail even in King County.

Spare me that, given just how much supply-side has added to the US federal debt. That's the real outrage


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on April 16, 2012, 07:31:28 PM
The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.

Uh huh. That's why of course outrageous tax policies fail even in King County.

There were some issues that voters had with this particular tax reform proposal, (http://www.komonews.com/opinion/kenschram/104713579.html?tab=video) but the vast majority of Americans believe that higher income earners can and should pay a little more in taxes.

Sorry.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Alcon on April 16, 2012, 07:55:13 PM
I agree -- the Ken Schramm video there exactly demonstrates why I-1098 got slaughtered.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 16, 2012, 07:57:29 PM
So let's see:


Fox News:  Romney +2

Gallup: Romney +2

Rasmussen:  Romney +4

and

Investor's Business Journal/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP:  Obama +8

CNN:  Obama +9




Huh


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 16, 2012, 08:02:56 PM
And this:



Quote
Ipsos/Reuters
 4/12-15/12; 891 registered voters, 3.3% margin of error
 Mode: Live telephone interviews
 Reuters story (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/16/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE83F16V20120416)

National

2012 President
 47% Obama (D), 43% Romney (R) (chart)


They had Obama up by 11 a month ago.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 16, 2012, 08:15:16 PM
Romney's pretty clearly recovered or been granted a bump at least somewhat, which wasn't something I necessarily thought wouldn't be the case even though I was holding out hope that it wouldn't be and am still heartened by how small it seems to have been relatively speaking, but the actual polls are all over the place and averaged out slightly favor Obama, which is about what I might have expected at this stage.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on April 16, 2012, 08:26:47 PM
The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.

Uh huh. That's why of course outrageous tax policies fail even in King County.

I'm sure a tax policy that was outrageous would.

Out of curiosity, under what circumstances, if any, would you actually accept a marginal tax increase on the highest bracket or couple of brackets?

Not would, has. We've already tried something very similar to the Buffett rule.

It would be extremely easy for an unscrupulous Pelosi to simply remove a '0' from the end of the Buffett rule tax and attack the middle class. Why would the middle class want to support the slippery slope of higher tax?

Horesepucky.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on April 16, 2012, 08:27:59 PM
The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.

Uh huh. That's why of course outrageous tax policies fail even in King County.

There were some issues that voters had with this particular tax reform proposal, (http://www.komonews.com/opinion/kenschram/104713579.html?tab=video) but the vast majority of Americans believe that higher income earners can and should pay a little more in taxes.

Sorry.

Clearly of course not the majority of the voting public. New Jersey municipalities across the state have also voted down higher tax.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on April 16, 2012, 08:33:22 PM
The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.

Uh huh. That's why of course outrageous tax policies fail even in King County.

There were some issues that voters had with this particular tax reform proposal, (http://www.komonews.com/opinion/kenschram/104713579.html?tab=video) but the vast majority of Americans believe that higher income earners can and should pay a little more in taxes.

Sorry.

Clearly of course not the majority of the voting public. New Jersey municipalities across the state have also voted down higher tax.

Again, tax policies might be rejected by the voters if the voters feel that there was problems with the legislation, like what happened in Washington state.  If there is a plan in place that leads to higher taxes on the middle-class or defeats the point of having progressive taxation, voters - even those who favor raising taxes on the rich - will oppose it.  Now, you can spin this any way you'd like, but the numbers show most Americans nationwide not agreeing with your position.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on April 16, 2012, 09:12:30 PM
Just to keep it interesting... here's the latest CNN poll:
Obama 52
Romney 43

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/16/rel4a.pdf.

Crap poll. CNN hasn't exactly been the gold standard in national polling.

Questionablecrosstabsoutlierjunkpoll

or

QCTOJP, for short.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 16, 2012, 09:47:03 PM
And this:
Quote
Ipsos/Reuters
 4/12-15/12; 891 registered voters, 3.3% margin of error
 Mode: Live telephone interviews
 Reuters story (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/16/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE83F16V20120416)

National

2012 President
 47% Obama (D), 43% Romney (R) (chart)


They had Obama up by 11 a month ago.

Well, then this is the big one for me. As much as I'd like to think Romney is leading right now, I still think Obama has a small lead, within the margin of error.

What this poll shows, though, is that Governor Romney is closing the gap, and those who thought the election was over and Obama is guaranteed a 2nd term are mistaken.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on April 16, 2012, 10:32:32 PM
We are now at the point where we can actually start looking at general election polls without laughing too much.

As I said middle of last year, this particular election cycle still looks to me to be a reversion to the world of 1996-2004 at all levels.  I really don't see how Romney/Obama go below 47 or above 52 in the end.  And I don't see how the Democrats take the House back.  Senate is still 50-50 in my view - the seats that can flip in a 1996-2004 world (i.e. <10%) are:

DEM to GOP: Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin
GOP to DEM: Arizona, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada (Indiana could flip if open)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on April 17, 2012, 12:10:52 AM
various simultaneous polls are pretty likely to be all over the place until November. the obvious thing to do for everyone is shut up and trust Nate Silver


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on April 17, 2012, 12:35:50 AM
various simultaneous polls are pretty likely to be all over the place until November. the obvious thing to do for everyone is shut up and trust Nate Silver
Speaking of which, by this time in 2008 he was doing much more than he is now towards projecting the general election. Looking forward to seeing that happen soon!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: argentarius on April 17, 2012, 09:56:46 AM
For god's sake guys it clearly matters if one guy is up on another guy nationally. If someone wins the PV by 1 percent I guarantee they'll win the EV.

Uh, nope. While he prevailed by 2.4% in the PV, Bush would have lost Ohio if you moved about 60k votes to the other side. In 1876, Tilden won the PV with over 3%.

In theory you could obtain a majority of the EVs with only around 24% of the PV.

Again, the PV is useless.
Theoretically, yes, but in reality, national polls are an indicator of how the states will vote. 1876 was a long time ago and Tilden racked up huge margins in many states, the likes of which we will not see this year, apart from DC, maybe Utah.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on April 17, 2012, 12:43:45 PM
Romney is now up 48-43 on Gallup.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: marvelrobbins on April 17, 2012, 12:58:59 PM
That proves Gallup Is both a joke and using 2010 numbers for likely voters.

Even then they had Republicans winning by 18 and they won by 6.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cavalcade on April 17, 2012, 02:06:48 PM
That proves Gallup Is both a joke and using 2010 numbers for likely voters.

Technically it's a poll of registered voters but they may be weighting things weirdly.

They're also polling 40% on cell phones.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on April 18, 2012, 02:27:17 PM
Rasmussen:
Romney 47%
Obama 43%

Gallup:
Romney 48%
Obama 44%

These polls are obviously wrong. Dailykos & PPP are much more trustworthy and unbiased.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 18, 2012, 02:41:10 PM
PPP certainly is, anyway.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on April 18, 2012, 02:44:09 PM

Well, Rasmussen's final tracking poll from last time was Obama 52/McCain 46, so excuse me if I don't completely discount them.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on April 18, 2012, 02:57:10 PM
Why won't you folks understand that polls are not immediately rejected just because the numbers may not be on our side?  Liberals here have no-noed polls COUNTLESS times that give Obama the advantage simply because certain factors make the poll unreliable.  We trust polling firms like PPP because more election results confirm its credibility more-so than certain other firms.  The remarks I'm seeing here are quite boastful and immature; of course, it's hard to expect better from some individuals here.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 18, 2012, 03:23:25 PM

Well, Rasmussen's final tracking poll from last time was Obama 52/McCain 46, so excuse me if I don't completely discount them.

They were terrible in 2010 and their crosstabs are questionable, but they were good last Presidential election, yes.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on April 18, 2012, 04:04:01 PM
With the kind of fighting going on in this thread over poll quality, you'd think the election was this upcoming Tuesday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on April 18, 2012, 09:29:39 PM
With the kind of fighting going on in this thread over poll quality, you'd think the election was this upcoming Tuesday.

Very true.  I really don't particularly trust Rasmussen or PPP to a certain extent at this point because they both have an agenda of some sort to promote.

Nationally, what I can't figure out about Rasmussen in 2010 is that his Congressional generic ballot was so off, yet his partisan ID numbers and Obama approval were dead-on accurate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on April 19, 2012, 12:55:44 PM
Rasmussen:
Romney 46%
Obama 45%

Gallup:
Romney 48%
Obama 43%

At least Romney's holding the same amount of support McCain got last election, if it moves below that we might be in trouble.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 21, 2012, 01:11:07 AM
Scott be trollin'. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 21, 2012, 09:47:18 AM
The President back ahead with Scott: 47-45. :)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on April 21, 2012, 09:57:40 AM

Suddenly Rasmussen is a credible pollster again. Amazing.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on April 21, 2012, 11:31:23 AM
No, it just shows that Rasmussen is a joke.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 21, 2012, 11:33:50 AM
No, it just shows that Rasmussen is a joke.

This.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 22, 2012, 12:08:23 PM
Obama up 3 on Gallup today, 47 to 44.  Just a few days ago, he was down 48 to 43.


lol 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on April 22, 2012, 12:09:05 PM
Well there goes the Romney bump.......


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Republic on April 22, 2012, 12:17:20 PM
"Dominating."


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 22, 2012, 01:41:03 PM
I really don't particularly trust Rasmussen or PPP to a certain extent at this point because they both have an agenda of some sort to promote.


LOL, Sam.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lincoln Republican on April 22, 2012, 01:51:34 PM
One thing we can say with absolute certainty is that this race is a dead heat at this point, and it is far, FAR, from over, contrary to what the Romney detractors would like everybody to believe.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on April 22, 2012, 02:47:36 PM
One thing we can say with absolute certainty is that this race is a dead heat at this point, and it is far, FAR, from over, contrary to what the Romney detractors would like everybody to believe.

Dead heat? Agree it is close and far from over but the vast majority of polls show Obama with a small lead especially in key battleground states (Ohio, Florida).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on April 22, 2012, 04:36:46 PM
Well, the election is 6 months away, so of course it's far from over.  It could be +10 either direction and it would be "far from over" simply because it's far from over.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on April 22, 2012, 04:40:37 PM
Well, the election is 6 months away, so of course it's far from over.  It could be +10 either direction and it would be "far from over" simply because it's far from over.

I'm starting to think this now, too.  I don't even put a lot of faith in national polls anymore.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on April 24, 2012, 12:04:17 PM
Gallup's tracker has Obama up by 7 over Romney today, 49 (+2) to 42 (-2). Clearly, this is going to fluctuate as much as their approval rating poll does (of course, since it's actually the same poll...).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 24, 2012, 01:38:52 PM
One thing we can say with absolute certainty is that this race is a dead heat at this point,

No, it really isn't.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 24, 2012, 04:24:00 PM
Rasmussen has Romney up 48-44 again.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on April 24, 2012, 09:40:08 PM

Yes, but Obama will be up 53-41 tomorrow and then back to Romney +6 after the first round of the NFL draft gives him a bounce.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on April 25, 2012, 03:37:22 PM
Ras is the only pollster to use "lv" model. Others prefer still RV. And RV are more democratic than LV.... That explains why ras shows Romney ahead.

When all pollsters will use LV model, Romney will be in a better position than now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on April 25, 2012, 09:16:33 PM
Ras is the only pollster to use "lv" model. Others prefer still RV. And RV are more democratic than LV.... That explains why ras shows Romney ahead.

When all pollsters will use LV model, Romney will be in a better position than now.

That assumes the likely voter model should have a strong R tilt ,especially with a generally uncharismatic candidate like Mitt.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on April 26, 2012, 03:18:15 PM
between D +0 and D +2 seems good for me. 2012 will be a little like 2004 IMO.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cinyc on April 26, 2012, 10:01:40 PM
The Economist/YouGov (http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/x7e57ezpj6/econTabReport.pdf) poll has Romney over Obama 47%-46%.  It's that newfangled Internet polling, so caveat emptor.  But it is a poll of registered, not likely voters.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on April 27, 2012, 02:05:45 PM
Gallup
Obama 50%
Romney 43%

Rasmussen
Obama 47%
Romney 46%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Rowan on April 30, 2012, 04:34:50 PM
Since this is what this thread is actually for:

Rasmussen

Romney: 47%
Obama: 45%

Gallup

Romney: 47%
Obama: 46%



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on May 06, 2012, 09:33:55 AM
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney earning 47% of the vote and President Obama attracting 46% support. Three percent (3%) would vote for a third party candidate, while four percent (4%) are undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on May 07, 2012, 12:19:47 PM
http://www.politico.com/polls/politico-george-washington-university-battleground-poll.html
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/75973.html
http://images.politico.com/global/2012/05/bg_47_questionnaire.html




Likely Voters.



Romney: 48
Obama: 47


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on May 07, 2012, 12:59:17 PM
I refuse to believe that all these polls showing the race almost tied are junk polls. Something's going on here, because these numbers aren't translating into the state polls. Could it be that Romney is doing better in traditional blue states? (No shot at winning their EVs, but he's just losing by a smaller margin than Republicans typically have lost by in the past?)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on May 07, 2012, 01:55:16 PM
I refuse to believe that all these polls showing the race almost tied are junk polls. Something's going on here, because these numbers aren't translating into the state polls. Could it be that Romney is doing better in traditional blue states? (No shot at winning their EVs, but he's just losing by a smaller margin than Republicans typically have lost by in the past?)


I don't think Romney is doing better, per say, Obama hasn't rallied the base yet in his strongholds.   The Republicans are currently going through a "rally behind the nominee" moment in Republican states.  For Democrats, the election really hasn't been on their minds yet.  

A lot of the New England, California and New York, polls, for example, still have double digit "undecided."  We all know that, except for New Hampshire, that will break 9 to 1 for Obama.  It always breaks for the Democrat regardless of the situation. That is what I see in the national polls.  That could account for some of his lag in the national numbers.  In the fact, in the poll krazen posted, Romney is the 90s with his party while Obama is still in the mid-80s.  Both will be in the 90s on election day.

Then, as krazen likes to remind us, the likely voter model is, of course, favorable to the Republicans at the moment.  That's promising for Romney, but again the Democrats have not started a GOTV effort because of the lack of a primary election.  Who is likely to vote in an election six months from now could be a completely different story.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on May 07, 2012, 03:09:39 PM
http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/race-tightens-obama-lead-over-romney-narrows-to-3-points

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll


Registered Voters. Of course they ended up with a D+7 electorate.


46%  Democrat Barack Obama
43%  Republican Mitt Romney



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on May 07, 2012, 03:27:15 PM
http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/race-tightens-obama-lead-over-romney-narrows-to-3-points

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll


Registered Voters. Of course they ended up with a D+7 electorate.


46%  Democrat Barack Obama
43%  Republican Mitt Romney



Hispanics
Obama 80%
Romney 12%

2004 Exit Poll Hispanics
Kerry 55%
Bush 44%

Not a good poll, but that performance ain't gonna cut it.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on May 11, 2012, 08:37:33 AM
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney earning 50% of the vote and President Obama attracting 43% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: marvelrobbins on May 11, 2012, 10:49:52 AM
RAS just lost any creditabilty It might have had left.If you trully believe Romney Is up by 7
I have a mansion to sell you.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on May 11, 2012, 02:40:02 PM
Gallup
Romney 46% (-1)
Obama 45% (+1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: AmericanNation on May 12, 2012, 10:01:11 AM
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney earning 50% of the vote and President Obama attracting 43% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
RAS just lost any creditabilty It might have had left.If you trully believe Romney Is up by 7
I have a mansion to sell you.

Is that 7 points a product of the gay marriage evolution?
I don't think it's a big deal, but it moves the needle.  Particularly in places like NC, VA, OH, etc.     


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 12, 2012, 12:45:11 PM
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney earning 50% of the vote and President Obama attracting 43% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Quote
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel, that primarily consists of members from the Utah State Republican Party. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cavalcade on May 12, 2012, 01:57:58 PM
Gallup, meanwhile, has Obama taking the lead over Romney 46-45.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lincoln Republican on May 13, 2012, 12:10:32 AM
RAS just lost any creditabilty It might have had left.If you trully believe Romney Is up by 7
I have a mansion to sell you.

And if it showed Obama over Romney by 7 you would be screaming how accurate it is no doubt.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Republic on May 13, 2012, 12:14:00 AM
RAS just lost any creditabilty It might have had left.If you trully believe Romney Is up by 7
I have a mansion to sell you.

And if it showed Obama over Romney by 7 you would be screaming how accurate it is no doubt.

If that were the case then Obama would in reality be leading by at least 12 or so.  Such is the nature of Rasmussen's polling.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on May 13, 2012, 11:38:11 AM
I find it awfully suspicious that the polls stopped coming the moment the story about Romney's hate crime against a classmate broke.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on May 13, 2012, 12:35:28 PM
Yes, because Romney tortured and lynched a gay kid. My Lord. Is there an eye roll smiley on this forum? There should be.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on May 14, 2012, 01:21:56 AM
When Obama announced support for gay marriage, Gallup had Romney up 3. Now they have Obama up 1. Clearly the sky is falling for Obama.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on May 14, 2012, 08:32:41 AM
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney earning 50% of the vote and President Obama attracting 43% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Quote
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel, that primarily consists of members from the Utah State Republican Party. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

No update today because of Mothers Day.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Torie on May 14, 2012, 03:10:09 PM
http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/race-tightens-obama-lead-over-romney-narrows-to-3-points

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll


Registered Voters. Of course they ended up with a D+7 electorate.


46%  Democrat Barack Obama
43%  Republican Mitt Romney



Hispanics
Obama 80%
Romney 12%

2004 Exit Poll Hispanics
Kerry 55%
Bush 44%

Not a good poll, but that performance ain't gonna cut it.


Except that the real Bush number was more like 38% rather than 44%.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on May 14, 2012, 04:53:30 PM
One thing we can say with absolute certainty is that this race is a dead heat at this point, and it is far, FAR, from over, contrary to what the Romney detractors would like everybody to believe.

Not in the least. The electoral map looks much like that of 2008 with President Obama winning or losing with margins in most states similar to those of 2008.  Mitt Romney can win if everything goes right for him... but that requires one of Colorado and Nevada, and each of the following states: Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. (At that I am not talking about Arizona or Indiana, an Obama win in either of which indicates that the President has won all swing states and is on the way to 370-380 electoral votes.  Romney needs an appeal that wins every one of those and thus makes such states as Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania close. That will take a strong new appeal that he needs to show.... yesterday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on May 15, 2012, 09:37:23 AM
Romney's favorables are soaring.


http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-05-14/poll-economy-obama-romney/54958250/1

Since becoming the presumptive Republican nominee, Romney's favorable-unfavorable rating has jumped to 50%-41%, his best ever and in the same neighborhood as Obama's 52%-46% standing. The former Massachusetts governor gets stronger ratings than the president when it comes to handling the economy, the issue likely to drive the campaign.

In the poll, 55% say the economy would get better over the next four years if Romney was elected, compared with 46% who say it would improve if Obama was re-elected. Twenty-seven percent say the economy would get worse in a Romney first term, compared with 37% who say that of an Obama second term.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on May 15, 2012, 10:05:59 AM
The revelation that Romney committed a hate crime against a schoolmate can't be helping him.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on May 15, 2012, 07:54:19 PM
The revelation that Romney committed a hate crime against a schoolmate can't be helping him.
Dude, that's gone from the headlines now. You gotta go with the flow, man. Keep up with what's in, yo. F**k that story, all the popular kids are gettin' in with JP Morgan...

Did I just type that? I did.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on June 18, 2012, 08:47:28 AM
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and another five percent (5%) are undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on June 18, 2012, 08:59:38 AM
Romney's favorables are soaring.


http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-05-14/poll-economy-obama-romney/54958250/1

Since becoming the presumptive Republican nominee, Romney's favorable-unfavorable rating has jumped to 50%-41%, his best ever and in the same neighborhood as Obama's 52%-46% standing. The former Massachusetts governor gets stronger ratings than the president when it comes to handling the economy, the issue likely to drive the campaign.

In the poll, 55% say the economy would get better over the next four years if Romney was elected, compared with 46% who say it would improve if Obama was re-elected. Twenty-seven percent say the economy would get worse in a Romney first term, compared with 37% who say that of an Obama second term.

Did anyone expect the disappointed voters for Santorum, Gingrich, or Perry to break toward President Obama? Republicans who might have heard their preachers rail against Mormonism as a horrible heresy now are getting accustomed to the prospect of a Mormon as President.

The 9% difference on economic stewardship is shaky. The Republicans would like us to forget Dubya -- but Romney has nothing to offer except the Bush II agenda without a real-estate boom. It's all tax cuts, gutting of unions, and regulatory relief on behalf of a few plutocrats.  

Don't forget that Mitt Romney is an empty suit on foreign policy. If he tries to run to the Right of President Obama on foreign policy he is easily cast as an extremist.  


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: AmericanNation on June 19, 2012, 06:22:31 AM

Did anyone expect the disappointed voters for Santorum, Gingrich, or Perry to break toward President Obama? Republicans who might have heard their preachers rail against Mormonism as a horrible heresy now are getting accustomed to the prospect of a Mormon as President.

The 9% difference on economic stewardship is shaky. The Republicans would like us to forget Dubya -- but Romney has nothing to offer except the Bush II agenda without a real-estate boom. It's all tax cuts, gutting of unions, and regulatory relief on behalf of a few plutocrats.  

Don't forget that Mitt Romney is an empty suit on foreign policy. If he tries to run to the Right of President Obama on foreign policy he is easily cast as an extremist.  
Right, Romney is an empty suit and Obama is...  O wait, you shouldn't attack a guy for being better than the other guy.     


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on June 29, 2012, 12:48:02 PM
Today's Gallup is Obama 48 (+1), Romney 43 (-1). Guess being stuck with Obamacare is really killing Obama in the polls.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on June 29, 2012, 02:42:55 PM

Did anyone expect the disappointed voters for Santorum, Gingrich, or Perry to break toward President Obama? Republicans who might have heard their preachers rail against Mormonism as a horrible heresy now are getting accustomed to the prospect of a Mormon as President.

The 9% difference on economic stewardship is shaky. The Republicans would like us to forget Dubya -- but Romney has nothing to offer except the Bush II agenda without a real-estate boom. It's all tax cuts, gutting of unions, and regulatory relief on behalf of a few plutocrats.  

Don't forget that Mitt Romney is an empty suit on foreign policy. If he tries to run to the Right of President Obama on foreign policy he is easily cast as an extremist.  
Right, Romney is an empty suit and Obama is...  O wait, you shouldn't attack a guy for being better than the other guy.    

He called Romney an empty suit on foreign policy. I don't think anybody would accuse Romney of being an empty suit on other issues. On economic issues an ugly suit, perhaps. On social issues a technicolor dreamcoat that's unnervingly mutable at times, certainly. But not an empty suit.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on June 29, 2012, 05:29:21 PM
And the Pubblie hacks went silent, for Rasmussen showed Obama up by one point.  :o  


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on July 23, 2012, 01:58:41 PM
American Research Group:

Obama Job Approval Ratings
7/20/12 Approve Disapprove Undecided

Overall 46% 51% 3%
Economy 44% 52% 4%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: AmericanNation on July 26, 2012, 09:35:09 AM
Thursday, July 26, 2012

Mitt Romney          48%
President Obama  44%
other candidate      4%
undecided               5%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lincoln Republican on July 28, 2012, 10:53:39 PM
Thursday, July 26, 2012

Mitt Romney          48%
President Obama  44%
other candidate      4%
undecided               5%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll



Quote from the article.  :)

Romney’s has lead by four or five points for three consecutive days. That’s the largest advantage enjoyed by either candidate in over a month. As with any such change in the race, it remains to be seen whether it marks a lasting shift or is merely statistical noise.

It's happening..........it's happening..........

I hope the trash talking Dem war room will be able to sleep nights, but I suspect they will need some sleeping pills.  I'm sure they are getting very restless.  

Yes, very restless indeed.

What next from the cheap shot low lifes of Team Obama, why Ann Romney cannot be First Lady because she has MS?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on July 28, 2012, 11:07:53 PM
Thursday, July 26, 2012

Mitt Romney          48%
President Obama  44%
other candidate      4%
undecided               5%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll



Quote from the article.  :)

Romney’s has lead by four or five points for three consecutive days. That’s the largest advantage enjoyed by either candidate in over a month. As with any such change in the race, it remains to be seen whether it marks a lasting shift or is merely statistical noise.

It's happening..........it's happening..........

I hope the trash talking Dem war room will be able to sleep nights, but I suspect they will need some sleeping pills.  I'm sure they are getting very restless.  

Yes, very restless indeed.

What next from the cheap shot low lifes of Team Obama, why Ann Romney cannot be First Lady because she has MS?
Calm down Winfield, your hackness is showing. You know that no one takes outlier Rasmussen seriously. The pure fact that at the bottom of every post they have to claim that they are unbiased with "quotes" from Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter shows their bias.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lincoln Republican on July 28, 2012, 11:09:54 PM
Hey, if such great Americans as Carter and Clinton say that, it must be true.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on August 06, 2012, 09:13:01 AM
Obama regains Razzy lead 47-45.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on August 09, 2012, 01:17:49 PM
Gallup

Obama: 47
Romney: 45


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on August 09, 2012, 01:52:56 PM
Rasmussen

Romney 47
Obama 43

6 point swing in 3 days? Gotta love the trackers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 15, 2012, 04:08:59 PM
For 2nd day in a row, Romney-Ryan lead Obama-Biden on both daily tracking polls.

Gallup:
Romney - 47%
Obama- 45%

Rasmussen:
Romney - 47%
Obama - 43%

Yesterday was the FIRST time in 52 days that Mitt Romney had garnered as high as 47% of the vote. Last time he was polling that well was June 21st. Looks like the tracking polls are picking up on a slight Ryan bounce. Also interesting to see how close the two tracking polls are to each other.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on August 17, 2012, 11:06:56 AM
Thursday, July 26, 2012

Mitt Romney          48%
President Obama  44%
other candidate      4%
undecided               5%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll



Quote from the article.  :)

Romney’s has lead by four or five points for three consecutive days. That’s the largest advantage enjoyed by either candidate in over a month. As with any such change in the race, it remains to be seen whether it marks a lasting shift or is merely statistical noise.

It's happening..........it's happening..........

I hope the trash talking Dem war room will be able to sleep nights, but I suspect they will need some sleeping pills.  I'm sure they are getting very restless.  

Yes, very restless indeed.

What next from the cheap shot low lifes of Team Obama, why Ann Romney cannot be First Lady because she has MS?

Remember the lead McCain had after his VP announcement? Remember the GOP saying exactly this in September 2008?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 17, 2012, 12:21:00 PM
Friday's tracking polls
Rasmussen    (8/14 - 8/16)
Obama    46.0    
Romney    45.0    

Gallup    (8/09 - 8/15)    
Obama    45.0
Romney    47.0

I week ago (before Ryan)
Rasmussen    
Obama    43.0    
Romney    47.0    

Gallup        
Obama    45.0
Romney    45.0    


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on August 17, 2012, 12:23:44 PM
Friday's tracking polls
Rasmussen    (8/14 - 8/16)
Obama    46.0    
Romney    45.0    

Gallup    (8/09 - 8/15)    
Obama    45.0
Romney    47.0

I week ago (before Ryan)
Rasmussen    
Obama    43.0    
Romney    47.0    

Gallup        
Obama    45.0
Romney    45.0    


Where's that Ryan bounce they keep talking about?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 18, 2012, 01:07:07 PM
Saturday


Rasmussen: Obama +2    
Obama    46
Romney    44    (-1)

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 18, 2012, 05:11:45 PM
Where's that Ryan bounce they keep talking about?

It was there. Now it appears to be gone on Rasmussen, but still exists on Gallup. But either way, not sure how much a VP bounce really matters in the end anyway. Remember a guy named Jack  Kemp in 1996? Sarah Palin in 2008? Read this: http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/the-bob-dole-bounce.html


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas on August 18, 2012, 05:29:46 PM
The fact that it seems to be back to being a tie/within the margin of error is not good news for Obama.

Let's not forget there were a few polls suddenly with big Obama leads right before Ryan was announced. Romney was having a bad few weeks, and the momentum seems to have shifted to neutral again.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 18, 2012, 05:54:27 PM
Let's not forget there were a few polls suddenly with big Obama leads right before Ryan was announced. Romney was having a bad few weeks, and the momentum seems to have shifted to neutral again.

That's exactly right. Remember these polls (from RCP) that came out in the days prior to the Ryan announcement? ()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on August 18, 2012, 06:39:29 PM
Let's not forget there were a few polls suddenly with big Obama leads right before Ryan was announced. Romney was having a bad few weeks, and the momentum seems to have shifted to neutral again.

That's exactly right. Remember these polls (from RCP) that came out in the days prior to the Ryan announcement? ()

Those were the last polls from any real pollster.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on August 18, 2012, 06:41:38 PM
The fact that it seems to be back to being a tie/within the margin of error is not good news for Obama.

Let's not forget there were a few polls suddenly with big Obama leads right before Ryan was announced. Romney was having a bad few weeks, and the momentum seems to have shifted to neutral again.
Gallup and Rasmussen didn't show those bumps so no, Obama shouldn't be worried. It was only the National Polls that showed it, not the Daily Trackers. And Nate Silver says that Gallup has been a bit more Republican-a leaning this cycle for some odd reason. Usually their quite accurate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 18, 2012, 07:12:07 PM

So far there is really no evidence of a significant Ryan bounce.  Comparing just the two tracking polls to a week ago Romney is up 2 in Gallup but has dropped 5 in Rasmussen, so the net effect is a negative bounce. Nate Silver's analysis showed about a 0.8% bounce looking at all the state and tracking polls as of Thursday (it would be lower now due to Ras tracking).

We wont know for sure until before the RNC when we should see other polls out and we can compare to pre-Ryan


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 18, 2012, 08:06:30 PM

Gallup and Rasmussen didn't show those bumps so no, Obama shouldn't be worried. It was only the National Polls that showed it, not the Daily Trackers. And Nate Silver says that Gallup has been a bit more Republican-a leaning this cycle for some odd reason. Usually their quite accurate.


So far there is really no evidence of a significant Ryan bounce.  Comparing just the two tracking polls to a week ago Romney is up 2 in Gallup but has dropped 5 in Rasmussen, so the net effect is a negative bounce. Nate Silver's analysis showed about a 0.8% bounce looking at all the state and tracking polls as of Thursday (it would be lower now due to Ras tracking).

We wont know for sure until before the RNC when we should see other polls out and we can compare to pre-Ryan


Did you guys just completely miss this?:
That's exactly right. Remember these polls (from RCP) that came out in the days prior to the Ryan announcement? ()

And I don't think anyone is arguing there's been a significant bounce. But for that matter, Christian Heinze makes a great point that VP bounces certainly don't predict future election outcomes. So bounce or not, I'm not really sure that it matters. http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/the-bob-dole-bounce.html


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 18, 2012, 08:15:01 PM
bounce can only be tracked apples to apples. You are comparing the tracking polls to those other polls. But Obama was underwater in both tracking polls before Ryan, they were already polling  more pro Romney. As I said, we will know if he has a bounce when the other polls come in for comparison, but looking at JUST the tracking polls, Obama is up in one and down in the other. On average more up than down. That is just the facts.

really there just isn't enough data to determine a bounce yet.  What data there is (when you look at apples to apples state polls) shows a small bounce of less than 1% according to
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/aug-16-why-im-not-buying-the-romney-rally/

we will know more in a few days i suspect


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 18, 2012, 10:35:26 PM
bounce can only be tracked apples to apples. You are comparing the tracking polls to those other polls. But Obama was underwater in both tracking polls before Ryan, they were already polling  more pro Romney. As I said, we will know if he has a bounce when the other polls come in for comparison, but looking at JUST the tracking polls, Obama is up in one and down in the other. On average more up than down. That is just the facts.

really there just isn't enough data to determine a bounce yet.  What data there is (when you look at apples to apples state polls) shows a small bounce of less than 1% according to
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/aug-16-why-im-not-buying-the-romney-rally/

we will know more in a few days i suspect

You're either making stuff up, or just misinformed.
For 2nd day in a row, Romney-Ryan lead Obama-Biden on both daily tracking polls.

Gallup:
Romney - 47%
Obama- 45%

Rasmussen:
Romney - 47%
Obama - 43%

Yesterday was the FIRST time in 52 days that Mitt Romney had garnered as high as 47% of the vote. Last time he was polling that well was June 21st. Looks like the tracking polls are picking up on a slight Ryan bounce. Also interesting to see how close the two tracking polls are to each other.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 18, 2012, 10:40:04 PM
Romney was ahead in the Ras poll before Ryan announced and he is currently behind. Im not sure why this is hard to comprehend.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 18, 2012, 10:45:13 PM
Yesterday was the FIRST time in 52 days that Mitt Romney had garnered as high as 47% of the vote. Last time he was polling that well was June 21st.


What exactly is hard to comprehend about that?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on August 18, 2012, 10:48:56 PM
Well, this is the lead paragraph at Rasmussen today:

Quote
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows President Obama attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 18, 2012, 11:03:01 PM
Yesterday was the FIRST time in 52 days that Mitt Romney had garnered as high as 47% of the vote. Last time he was polling that well was June 21st.


What exactly is hard to comprehend about that?
Romney was polling at 46% the day Ryan was announced and he had a +2 over Obama. He now has a -2. Are you really arguing that Rasmussen is showing a Ryan bump?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on August 19, 2012, 08:42:06 AM
Romney's numbers @ Rasmussen drop to the lowest point since March:

Quote
Sunday, August 19, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting support from 45% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 43%.

This is the lowest level of support for Romney since March. So far, in the month of August, support for both Romney and Obama has stayed in a very narrow range between 43% and 47%.

Romney is supported by 86% of Republicans, while Obama gets the vote from 84% of Democrats. The president has a 10-point edge among unaffiliated voters.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on August 19, 2012, 08:54:03 AM
National polling doesn't matter. Statewide polling does.

I'm not denying Romney is enjoying a bump.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 19, 2012, 12:09:31 PM
Romney was polling at 46% the day Ryan was announced and he had a +2 over Obama. He now has a -2. Are you really arguing that Rasmussen is showing a Ryan bump?

If you would read the thread you're posting in, you'd see that that's not at all what I'm saying.

It was there. Now it appears to be gone on Rasmussen, but still exists on Gallup. But either way, not sure how much a VP bounce really matters in the end anyway. Remember a guy named Jack  Kemp in 1996? Sarah Palin in 2008? Read this: http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/08/the-bob-dole-bounce.html


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 19, 2012, 12:31:51 PM
My point was a brief one point bump in Rasmussen cant really be called a bounce of any sort. Taken together the two tracking polls average out to a negative bounce. But I dont believe that either. I just dont think there is enough data yet.

As for state poll data, that is also a mixed bag as noted by Nate Silver with some showing movement towards Romney and others the opposite. Including some of the purple polls showing up and others down.

As of now there simply isn't enough data to say if there is a real Ryan bump. The one exception is probably WI, which now appears to be more competitive. But in aggregate, what data there is shows something less than 1% for Ryan overall. Last week had very little polling released. I actually expect that there should be more polls in the next week and they will show something of a 1-2% bump. I just prefer to see more data before making a determination.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 20, 2012, 12:08:37 PM
Monday

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    43  (-3)
Romney    44    

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

It appears that a particularly pro-Obama sample has worked (is working?) its way out of Rasmussen. Gallup has been unusually steady for about a week.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 20, 2012, 01:01:11 PM
Monday

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    43  (-3)
Romney    44    

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

It appears that a particularly pro-Obama sample has worked (is working?) its way out of Rasmussen. Gallup has been unusually steady for about a week.

Very true. Romney's been at 47%, and Obama at 45% on Gallup for the last 7 straight days. Remarkably stable as of late on Gallup.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 21, 2012, 12:07:12 PM
Monday

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    43  (-3)
Romney    44    

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

It appears that a particularly pro-Obama sample has worked (is working?) its way out of Rasmussen. Gallup has been unusually steady for about a week.

Very true. Romney's been at 47%, and Obama at 45% on Gallup for the last 7 straight days. Remarkably stable as of late on Gallup.

Tuesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +1    
Obama    44  (+1)
Romney    45 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47

8th day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47-45%.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 21, 2012, 12:10:00 PM
The Gallup national tracking is starting to get weird. It has never held stable like this for this long, while over the same one week period Obama's Gallup approval has ranged from even to -6.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 22, 2012, 10:14:08 AM
At least thus far, it does not appear as if the Todd Akin dust-up has harmed Romney in Rasmussen's tracking. He expands his lead today from 1 to 2 points.

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +2  
Obama    44  
Romney    46 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2
Obama     45
Romney     47

This marks the 9th straight day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47% Romney, 45% Obama.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on August 22, 2012, 12:30:45 PM
At least thus far, it does not appear as if the Todd Akin dust-up has harmed Romney in Rasmussen's tracking. He expands his lead today from 1 to 2 points.

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +2  
Obama    44  
Romney    46 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2
Obama     45
Romney     47

This marks the 9th straight day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47% Romney, 45% Obama.

pretty remarkable, considering gallup... The permanent ryan effect: not big but solid.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 22, 2012, 12:33:46 PM
At least thus far, it does not appear as if the Todd Akin dust-up has harmed Romney in Rasmussen's tracking. He expands his lead today from 1 to 2 points.

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +2  
Obama    44  
Romney    46 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2
Obama     45
Romney     47

This marks the 9th straight day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47% Romney, 45% Obama.

pretty remarkable, considering gallup... The permanent ryan effect: not big but solid.

That's true. Romney hit 47% 3 days after the Ryan pick and hasn't budged since.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 22, 2012, 03:26:28 PM
Its amazingly flat at Gallup...its impressive hold for Romney.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 22, 2012, 08:59:52 PM
Its amazingly flat at Gallup...its impressive hold for Romney.

Especially considering that before the Ryan pick, Obama held the lead on Gallup for 2 months with few exceptions.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 23, 2012, 12:24:14 PM
Thursday:

Rasmussen: tied  
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     45 (-1)

Gallup: tied
Obama     46 (+1)
Romney     46 (-1)

The Gallup flatline finally unflattens.  Could Akin actually be having an effect? We will see if this is a trend or blip


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on August 23, 2012, 02:05:40 PM
At least thus far, it does not appear as if the Todd Akin dust-up has harmed Romney in Rasmussen's tracking. He expands his lead today from 1 to 2 points.

Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Romney +2  
Obama    44  
Romney    46 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +2
Obama     45
Romney     47

This marks the 9th straight day in a row that Gallup has been stuck at 47% Romney, 45% Obama.

pretty remarkable, considering gallup... The permanent ryan effect: not big but solid.

Permanent? lol. Hasn't it been less than two weeks since he picked him? And we're already calling things "permanent"?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 23, 2012, 04:27:38 PM

The Gallup flatline finally unflattens.  Could Akin actually be having an effect? We will see if this is a trend or blip

Was thinking the same thing when I saw the numbers today.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 24, 2012, 12:18:59 PM
Friday:

Rasmussen: Romney +1   
Obama     45
Romney     46 (+1)

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 25, 2012, 01:45:40 PM
Saturday:

Rasmussen: Obama +1  
Obama     46 (+1)
Romney     45 (-1)

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46



1 week ago

Rasmussen: Obama +2   
Obama    46
Romney    44   

Gallup: Romney +2       
Obama    45
Romney    47


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 26, 2012, 12:37:27 PM
Sunday:

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47 (+1)
Romney     45

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on August 26, 2012, 12:45:01 PM
Sunday:

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47 (+1)
Romney     45

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46
There's something funky going on with Gallup. Rasmussen has had his approval between 47-50 for a while now. But Gallup seems to have him falling a lot lately. And he hasn't been in the lead in over two weeks.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 27, 2012, 12:02:43 PM
Monday:

Rasmussen: Obama +3
Obama     47
Romney     44 (-1)

Gallup: Romney +1
Obama     46
Romney     47 (+1)



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on August 27, 2012, 06:49:23 PM
I see Scott's doing some prep work for Romney's big convention bounce! :P


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on August 28, 2012, 08:55:42 AM
Is Gallup doing their registered, likely and "extended" thing after the conventions again?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 28, 2012, 12:20:58 PM
Tuesday:

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47
Romney     45 (+1)

Gallup: Romney +1
Obama     46
Romney     47



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2012, 01:11:53 PM
This will be a tracking poll:

46-42 Obama (Likely Voters)

45-39 Obama (Registered Voters)

...

Interview dates: August 24-27, 2012
Base: 857 registered voters (RV)
Base: 433 RV Democrats, 369 RV Republicans, 128 RV Independents
Base: 749 Likely Voters (LV)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11899


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2012, 12:10:21 AM
DAY 2:

(Reuters) - Republican Mitt Romney edged closer to President Barack Obama in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll on Tuesday as he mounts a sustained effort this week to sell himself and his vision for U.S. economic recovery at the Republican National Convention.

In a four-day rolling poll, Obama led Romney by two percentage points among likely voters, 45 percent to 43 percent. That was a slight narrowing of the gap from results of the rolling poll on Monday when Obama was ahead by four points.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/08/28/us-usa-campaign-poll-obama-idINBRE87R17B20120828


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 29, 2012, 01:40:37 PM
Wednesday:

Rasmussen: Obama +1
Obama     46 (-1)
Romney     45

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama     47 (+1)
Romney     46 (-1)



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on August 29, 2012, 11:49:40 PM
DAY 3:

(Reuters) - Republican Mitt Romney pulled even with President Barack Obama in a Reuters/Ipsos poll on Wednesday, getting a boost from his party's nominating convention in Tampa this week.

In a four-day rolling poll, Romney and Obama were deadlocked among likely voters at 43 percent each. That was an improvement for Romney from Obama's two-point lead on Tuesday and four-point lead on Monday.

"There is movement toward Romney, which is traditional for a convention," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said. "It's small and the change is incremental, but it's been moving the last couple of days."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/29/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87S18U20120829


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on August 30, 2012, 12:27:53 AM
In 2008, according to the RCP chart, the full bounce only showed up a few days after the conventions ended. So, the trackers should pick up the full GOP bounce by Tuesday next week and the Tuesday after that for the Democrats.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on August 30, 2012, 12:30:29 AM
The original poll must have been a little too pro-Obama, because I'm not sure if enough happened in the first two nights to change this race from +4 Obama to a tie. If the first two nights actually changed things that much (I don't think it did), Obama's in a heap of trouble. ;)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on August 30, 2012, 12:32:59 AM
The original poll must have been a little too pro-Obama, because I'm not sure if enough happened in the first two nights to change this race from +4 Obama to a tie. If the first two nights actually changed things that much (I don't think it did), Obama's in a heap of trouble. ;)

Maybe Romney will lead by 5 in this tracker after they have finished their polling.

With 3 additional points coming from Ryan and 2 points from Romney.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 30, 2012, 09:07:08 AM
Unless they were conducting this poll as late as 11PM last night (which I doubt), then today's 43-43% TIE is probably based on the strength of Ann Romney and Chris Christie's speech alone. Assuming they are using a 3 day rolling average, only 1 night of surveys for today's update would have been conducted after Ann and Christie's speeches. Any bounce by the Ryan speech probably won't be picked up until today/this evening's surveys. Which means it will show up in tomorrow's update. Likewise, we won't see any of the effects of Mitt Romney's speech tonight until Saturday morning's update.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 30, 2012, 12:06:59 PM
Thursday:

Rasmussen: tied
Obama     45 (-1)
Romney     45

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46

Ipsos/Reuters: Romney +2
Obama     42  (-1)
Romney     44  (+1)


afternoon edit, added Ipsos/Reuters


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 30, 2012, 03:55:37 PM
DAY 4:

Obama - 42% (-4 pts since 1st poll release Monday)
Romney- 44% (+2 pts since 1st poll release Monday)

Reuters reporter tweets this: https://twitter.com/steveholland1/status/241274092379070465

Quote
@SteveHolland1: Our latest Reuters-Ipsos poll shows evidence of a Romney bounce from his convention. He's up 44-42 over Obama after down 4 points Mon

That's a net change of +6 points in Romney's favor since Monday, and Romney hasn't even given his speech yet.

Question: might it be more accurate to update the title of this thread to reflect the current tracking numbers?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 30, 2012, 04:21:28 PM
is this an ongoing thing or will it stop at the end of the DNC?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 30, 2012, 04:38:23 PM
is this an ongoing thing or will it stop at the end of the DNC?

I'm not sure. Though we can never have enough tracking polls!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 30, 2012, 04:40:29 PM
we should probably add this to the national tracking poll thread


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 30, 2012, 05:18:49 PM
Good idea. Hopefully it won't disappear post-DNC.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on August 30, 2012, 07:04:16 PM
How did Ipsos/Reuters do in 2008?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 31, 2012, 12:23:40 PM
Friday:

Rasmussen: Romney +1
Obama     44 (-1)
Romney     45

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46



1 week ago:

Rasmussen: Romney +1   
Obama     45
Romney     46

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on August 31, 2012, 12:30:02 PM
What a surprise, Rasmussen is already hard at work on a Romney bounce but Gallup isn't showing anything. lol.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on August 31, 2012, 12:43:32 PM
What a surprise, Rasmussen is already hard at work on a Romney bounce but Gallup isn't showing anything. lol.

First, we won't see the bounce until tomorrow at the earliest and probably not until mid week.

Second, Rasmussen was unchanged from last week.

LOL.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on August 31, 2012, 12:49:17 PM
Why would it take that long for a bounce to appear JJ? We should be able to tell by the weekend or early next week...though it is labor day weekend. Is that what you meant?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on August 31, 2012, 12:52:19 PM
He seems to think only Romney's speech itself can produce a bounce, not the rest of the convention.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on August 31, 2012, 01:16:23 PM
Why would it take that long for a bounce to appear JJ? We should be able to tell by the weekend or early next week...though it is labor day weekend. Is that what you meant?

First of all, the polling was yesterday afternoon/evening, so you don't a third of the convention, including Romney's or Rubio's speech.  You also have one sample from Tuesday afternoon/evening, prior to most or all of the speeches.

Yes, Labor Day polling will present a problem, because people travel or just decide not to answer their phones.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 31, 2012, 03:57:55 PM
What a surprise, Rasmussen is already hard at work on a Romney bounce but Gallup isn't showing anything. lol.

Why would it take that long for a bounce to appear JJ? We should be able to tell by the weekend or early next week...though it is labor day weekend. Is that what you meant?

Did you guys just miss this, or are you ignoring it for the sake of your argument?
Thursday:

Rasmussen: tied
Obama     45 (-1)
Romney     45

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46

Ipsos/Reuters: Romney +2
Obama     42  (-1)
Romney     44  (+1)


afternoon edit, added Ipsos/Reuters

Out of the 3 tracking polls, 2 show a bounce. Rasmussen has shown a net +4 point bounce from Monday for Mitt Romney. He trailed Obama that day by 3, 47-44%, and now leads by 1, 45-44%

Reuters Ipsos has shown a more significant bounce, with Romney gaining a net 6 points from Monday (when he trailed Obama 46-42%. As of yesterday, he leads 44-42%, and that's without taking into account last night's speech).

So as you see there is certainly evidence to suggest that there is some degree of a bounce. So what were y'all saying again?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on August 31, 2012, 04:09:26 PM
I wasn't saying much at all, just asking JJ a question. Trying to understand his thought process is always an exciting endeavor. The bounce should be apparent on polling done today imho.

And I didn't know ipsos was showing a bounce since that is not regularly posted here. All I was seeing is Gallup staying steady and Rasmussen moving. But it's Rasmussen and Scott likes to volunteer on behalf of the Republican party so I didn't think too much of it. I am sure they will get a bounce. I derive no utility from denying reality so if it's there I will acknowledge it.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on August 31, 2012, 04:21:25 PM
I wasn't saying much at all, just asking JJ a question. Trying to understand his thought process is always an exciting endeavor. The bounce should be apparent on polling done today imho.

Not if it is a weak one, 2-3 points (which was my prediction).  Tuesday, Isaac was the lead story, it stepped on some of that.  Unless there is an exceptional speech (good or bad), nobody notices the rest.

Even a good one (Obama, 2004), I don't think moved the numbers too much.  It took a while for Buchannan's 1992 speech to register, and I think it killed the bounce for the most part.

Quote
And I didn't know ipsos was showing a bounce since that is not regularly posted here. All I was seeing is Gallup staying steady and Rasmussen moving. But it's Rasmussen and Scott likes to volunteer on behalf of the Republican party so I didn't think too much of it. I am sure they will get a bounce. I derive no utility from denying reality so if it's there I will acknowledge it.

Rasmussen isn't showing anything, but Gallup is showing a slight increase.

"Today's polling" won't show up until tomorrow, at the earliest.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 31, 2012, 06:02:52 PM
I looked around and didnt find a number for today.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on August 31, 2012, 06:21:06 PM
I looked around and didnt find a number for today.

Nor I.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: big bad fab on August 31, 2012, 06:22:44 PM
Can't someone make and update small graphs ?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on August 31, 2012, 07:38:05 PM
Still looking. Why in the WORLD would Ipsos stop the tracking poll on the day after the nominee's speech? Not saying they did stop it, but wondering why we got a new release yesterday at 4:30PM EST, and not today. There's bound to be a better explanation.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 31, 2012, 08:21:53 PM
The only thing I found was this
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/31/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120831

The no headline number but says Romney is ahead by one point.
Quote
Romney and Obama remain in a dead heat in most national polls of voting intentions. Friday's Reuters/Ipsos poll had Romney with a slim one-point lead among likely voters, effectively unchanged from the day before.

Romney has improved his likability but still trails Obama in that and other metrics. He leads Obama in "would be an effective president"


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The Vorlon on August 31, 2012, 09:02:30 PM
This poll actually has Mr. Romney up 44 / 42 among likely voters.

It's an internet based poll, so judge it as you will.

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ReutersIpsos083012.pdf


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on August 31, 2012, 09:42:14 PM
it is on the Ipsos site now

Day 5


LV: Romney +1
Obama: 43 (+1)
Romney: 44 (-)  

RV: Obama +3
Obama: 43  (+1)
Romney: 40 (+1)


Monday:


LV: Obama +4
Obama: 46
Romney: 42

RV: Obama +6
Obama: 45
Romney: 39




article: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5743

details: http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11913

attribute tracking charts: http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11914


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 01, 2012, 12:08:50 AM
So, until now it looks like Romney got a 5-point bump @ Ipsos and basically no bump @ Rasmussen and Gallup. But we need to wait until Tuesday to get a clearer picture.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 01, 2012, 08:51:05 AM


Rasmussen: Romney +3
Obama     44 (u)
Romney     47 (+2)

It's probably the start (or peak) of a small bounce.  I expect it to be ephemeral.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on September 01, 2012, 08:54:31 AM
The Eastwood bump.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 01, 2012, 10:41:58 AM
The height of Romney's convention bounce should be around now:

()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 01, 2012, 11:14:12 AM
Rasmussen made their sample quite Republican-leaning for August, showing a sudden jump in Republicans in the US to record levels:

August results: 37.6% GOP 33.3% DEM 29.2% IND / GOP+4.3

July results: 34.9% GOP 34.0% DEM 31.1% IND / GOP+0.9

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

For their Daily Tracker, Rasmussen uses the average party ID for the past 3 months (currently GOP+2.2), which is among all ADULTS. Their tracker is of likely voters though, which is even more Republican.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 01, 2012, 11:16:17 AM
showing a sudden jump in Republicans in the US to record levels

That pretty much settles it: Rasmussen is completely delusional.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Vosem on September 01, 2012, 11:40:18 AM
showing a sudden jump in Republicans in the US to record levels

That pretty much settles it: Rasmussen is completely delusional.

Obviously there's no such thing as a convention bounce, and the significant advantages Republicans have this year don't exist.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 01, 2012, 11:42:17 AM
significant advantages Republicans have this year

Welcome to 2002, Vosem.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 01, 2012, 11:42:27 AM
So, until now it looks like Romney got a 5-point bump @ Ipsos and basically no bump @ Rasmussen and Gallup. But we need to wait until Tuesday to get a clearer picture.

That's just not accurate. On Monday, the day before the start of the convention, Obama led on 47-44%. Today, ROMNEY leads 47-44%. How is a net +6 pt swing NOT a bounce? How is Rasmussen NOT showing a bounce?

And for that very same matter, Ipsos is showing a net +5 point swing.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 01, 2012, 12:10:38 PM
So, until now it looks like Romney got a 5-point bump @ Ipsos and basically no bump @ Rasmussen and Gallup. But we need to wait until Tuesday to get a clearer picture.

That's just not accurate. On Monday, the day before the start of the convention, Obama led on 47-44%. Today, ROMNEY leads 47-44%. How is a net +6 pt swing NOT a bounce? How is Rasmussen NOT showing a bounce?

And for that very same matter, Ipsos is showing a net +5 point swing.

Read my post about how Rasmussen manipulated their August target sample to show a sudden "record Republican party ID", which in turn makes their target sample for their daily tracking poll more Republican too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140899.msg3407250#msg3407250


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 01, 2012, 12:13:59 PM
Saturday:

Rasmussen: Romney +3  
Obama     44
Romney     47 (+2)

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46

1 week ago

Rasmussen: Obama +1  
Obama     46
Romney     45

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 01, 2012, 12:17:49 PM
The height of Romney's convention bounce should be around now:



Mid week is more like it.  You still have samples from Wednesday afternnoon in the numbers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on September 01, 2012, 12:48:47 PM
Good idea. Hopefully it won't disappear post-DNC.

President Obama is a spellbinding speaker in contrast to Romney. If people tune in at all to Obama -- then Romney is cooked like hamburger patties that fell onto the coals of the outdoor grill and have themselves become coals for all practical purposes.

The Romney bump is quite small -- probably reflecting that people did not tune in en masse to see what Republicans hope is the 45th President of the United States.  If people had been in such deep desire to change the President they would have been watching their only hope for such change.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 01, 2012, 12:57:02 PM
Uh, guys, you know this is an internet poll right? I wouldn't pay it much attention...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 01, 2012, 01:30:43 PM
Gallup is still showing nothing. Too funny.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on September 01, 2012, 02:16:08 PM
The height of Romney's convention bounce should be around now:



Mid week is more like it.  You still have samples from Wednesday afternnoon in the numbers.

This is a dangerous game you're playing J.J.  You could just accept a 1 point bounce for Romney at his weekend.  Saying this and you run the risk of the DNC going over well and Romney's midweek bounce being Obama +2.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on September 01, 2012, 02:24:21 PM
The height of Romney's convention bounce should be around now:



Mid week is more like it.  You still have samples from Wednesday afternnoon in the numbers.

This is a dangerous game you're playing J.J.  You could just accept a 1 point bounce for Romney at his weekend.  Saying this and you run the risk of the DNC going over well and Romney's midweek bounce being Obama +2.

Accept a 1 point bounce?

Gallup: -1
Ras: + 5
Ipsos: + 6

That would be a 3.3 point bounce.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 01, 2012, 02:37:13 PM
So, until now it looks like Romney got a 5-point bump @ Ipsos and basically no bump @ Rasmussen and Gallup. But we need to wait until Tuesday to get a clearer picture.

That's just not accurate. On Monday, the day before the start of the convention, Obama led on 47-44%. Today, ROMNEY leads 47-44%. How is a net +6 pt swing NOT a bounce? How is Rasmussen NOT showing a bounce?

And for that very same matter, Ipsos is showing a net +5 point swing.

Read my post about how Rasmussen manipulated their August target sample to show a sudden "record Republican party ID", which in turn makes their target sample for their daily tracking poll more Republican too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140899.msg3407250#msg3407250

Again, that "manipulating" statement is purely subjective, though stated by you as fact. Just because you don't like Rasmussen doesn't mean they're manipulating numbers. In fact, Nate Silver doesn't find them doing all that much "manipulating" at all. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on September 01, 2012, 03:15:07 PM
So, until now it looks like Romney got a 5-point bump @ Ipsos and basically no bump @ Rasmussen and Gallup. But we need to wait until Tuesday to get a clearer picture.

That's just not accurate. On Monday, the day before the start of the convention, Obama led on 47-44%. Today, ROMNEY leads 47-44%. How is a net +6 pt swing NOT a bounce? How is Rasmussen NOT showing a bounce?

And for that very same matter, Ipsos is showing a net +5 point swing.

Read my post about how Rasmussen manipulated their August target sample to show a sudden "record Republican party ID", which in turn makes their target sample for their daily tracking poll more Republican too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140899.msg3407250#msg3407250

Again, that "manipulating" statement is purely subjective, though stated by you as fact. Just because you don't like Rasmussen doesn't mean they're manipulating numbers. In fact, Nate Silver doesn't find them doing all that much "manipulating" at all. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/
Actually, yes he does.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 01, 2012, 04:01:22 PM
So, until now it looks like Romney got a 5-point bump @ Ipsos and basically no bump @ Rasmussen and Gallup. But we need to wait until Tuesday to get a clearer picture.

That's just not accurate. On Monday, the day before the start of the convention, Obama led on 47-44%. Today, ROMNEY leads 47-44%. How is a net +6 pt swing NOT a bounce? How is Rasmussen NOT showing a bounce?

And for that very same matter, Ipsos is showing a net +5 point swing.

Read my post about how Rasmussen manipulated their August target sample to show a sudden "record Republican party ID", which in turn makes their target sample for their daily tracking poll more Republican too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140899.msg3407250#msg3407250

Again, that "manipulating" statement is purely subjective, though stated by you as fact. Just because you don't like Rasmussen doesn't mean they're manipulating numbers. In fact, Nate Silver doesn't find them doing all that much "manipulating" at all. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/
Actually, yes he does.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

Uhh..you're citing an article that is TWO YEARS OLD. I'm citing one that is 2 months old. Nice try though, Clinton96. I have difficulty taking seriously someone who will actually take the time to super-impose a pic of Schweitzer and Cuomo in their signature.

()

()
 note the dates.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: greenforest32 on September 01, 2012, 04:25:22 PM
Those articles are not comparing the same thing. The 2012 link on the house effect (individual pollster difference from the polling average) is not the same thing as comparing a pollster's results to the election results (the 2010 link).

Obviously we can't compare the 2012 polls to the results yet as the election isn't over but the polling average is not the same thing as the election results.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=155124.0

Ras is a well known troll. You don't have to look past his Senate polls to see that. Just look at Florida: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2012#Polling_2

August 15 - Nelson +7
July 9 - Mack +9
April 25 - Nelson +11
March 13 - Mack +7
February 13 - Tie
November 17 (2011) - Mack +4


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on September 01, 2012, 04:29:04 PM
So, until now it looks like Romney got a 5-point bump @ Ipsos and basically no bump @ Rasmussen and Gallup. But we need to wait until Tuesday to get a clearer picture.

That's just not accurate. On Monday, the day before the start of the convention, Obama led on 47-44%. Today, ROMNEY leads 47-44%. How is a net +6 pt swing NOT a bounce? How is Rasmussen NOT showing a bounce?

And for that very same matter, Ipsos is showing a net +5 point swing.

Read my post about how Rasmussen manipulated their August target sample to show a sudden "record Republican party ID", which in turn makes their target sample for their daily tracking poll more Republican too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140899.msg3407250#msg3407250

Again, that "manipulating" statement is purely subjective, though stated by you as fact. Just because you don't like Rasmussen doesn't mean they're manipulating numbers. In fact, Nate Silver doesn't find them doing all that much "manipulating" at all. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/
Actually, yes he does.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

Uhh..you're citing an article that is TWO YEARS OLD. I'm citing one that is 2 months old. Nice try though, Clinton96. I have difficulty taking seriously someone who will actually take the time to super-impose a pic of Schweitzer and Cuomo in their signature.

()

()
 note the dates.


From Nate Silver's House Effects Post
Quote
Rasmussen Reports, which has had Republican-leaning results in the past, does so again this year. However, the tendency is not very strong – a Republican lean of about 1.3 points.
If you are used to looking at Rasmussen Reports polls, your impression may be that their partisan lean is stronger than that. This is not wrong, actually. However, some of the difference results from the fact that Rasmussen is polling likely voters, while many other polling firms are polling registered voters.
So with the likely-voter adjustment that Nate Silver incorporates into his model, the house-effect of the firm is about 1.5.
Quote
Without that likely-voter adjustment, Rasmussen Reports would have roughly a three point Republican-leaning house effect.
BUT in comparison with other polls, without the likely-voter adjustment, they have about a 3 point GOP lean.

And leave Cuomo and Schweitzer out of this.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 01, 2012, 04:52:02 PM
Those articles are not comparing the same thing. The 2012 link on the house effect (individual pollster difference from the polling average) is not the same thing as comparing a pollster's results to the election results (the 2010 link).

Obviously we can't compare the 2012 polls to the results yet as the election isn't over but the polling average is not the same thing as the election results.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=155124.0

Ras is a well known troll. You don't have to look past his Senate polls to see that. Just look at Florida: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2012#Polling_2

August 15 - Nelson +7
July 9 - Mack +9
April 25 - Nelson +11
March 13 - Mack +7
February 13 - Tie
November 17 (2011) - Mack +4

So, that link you provided to "prove" that Rasmussen is a "known troll" would also indicate that Quinnipiac is a troll (a top rated pollster by Silver's standard), Mason Dixon (another good poll), and PPP (which I'm sure, you just think is great).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: greenforest32 on September 01, 2012, 05:08:51 PM

So, that link you provided to "prove" that Rasmussen is a "known troll" would also indicate that Quinnipiac is a troll (a top rated pollster by Silver's standard), Mason Dixon (another good poll), and PPP (which I'm sure, you just think is great).

Neither of them has wild swings like Rasmussen showing 15+ point swing in one month (Mack +7 in March to Nelson +11 in April). The 2010 link above comparing pollsters against the election results should be proof enough no? Don't know why he removed this chart from the article though.

()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 01, 2012, 05:35:15 PM
First, a "house bias," may result in the number being off, but shouldn't have any effect on the change.

If a Rasmussen gives candidate R 47%, maybe R is really at 45%.  If a later poll gives R 50%, maybe he's really at 48%, but there would still be a 3 point change.

Second, looking at the FL polling, Rasmussen has shown a 10 point gain for Nelson.  Quinnipiac has shown a 9 point shift the same way.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: greenforest32 on September 01, 2012, 05:44:12 PM
The point is that the measure of accuracy should be the poll against the election results, not the poll against the polling average as the average can be wrong.

Ras is clearly the odd one out in the Florida polling. They've shown two different 15+ point swings in one month while Quinnipiac had smaller swings (one over two months). Their past results show they are not credible compared to the other major pollsters. They're in their own league:

Quote
The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

Edit: missed the second Quinnipiac poll


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 01, 2012, 05:50:37 PM
That pretty little pic is about 2 years old. But of course, you don't want to note that.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: greenforest32 on September 01, 2012, 05:57:44 PM
Nobody is saying the 2012 differences will be the same but the point is that the last objective measure we have of the polling results is from the last election: 2010.

I don't really care one way or another but I just get annoyed at the implication that Rasmussen's inaccuracy was the same as the other pollsters or never existed or is now gone.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 01, 2012, 05:57:45 PM
The point is that the measure of accuracy should be the poll against the election results, not the poll against the polling average as the average can be wrong.

If there is a "house bias," which you claimed, then that should not effect the change in the poll, only the final number.

Quote
Ras is clearly the odd one out in the Florida polling. They've shown two different 15+ point swings in one month while Quinnipiac had one smaller swing over two months. Their past results show they are not credible compared to the other major pollsters. They're in their own league:


Here is the link you posted:

http://en.wikipedia.orgwiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2012#Polling_2

It shows Nelson:

Rasmussen Reports:    July 9, 2012        37%    
Quinnipiac:    June 19-25, 2012:             41%    

Then it shows Nelson:

Quinnipiac    August 15-21, 2012                    50%
Rasmussen Reports    August 15, 2012     47%    

The polls show a gap of 4 points at most.  Rasmussen shows a gain of 10 points; Quinnipiac  shows a gain of 9 points.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 01, 2012, 05:59:48 PM
Obama regains the lead! We can only hope that John Ker... err Mitt Romney keeps bouncing like this!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120901

Obama 44%
Romney 43%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on September 01, 2012, 06:05:59 PM
That pretty little pic is about 2 years old. But of course, you don't want to note that.

Why should he? It's comparing 2010 polling to the 2010 actual results.  How are we supposed to compare 2012 polling to the 2012 results?  We can only look on a firm's history.

Rasmussen has been off in every Presidential and midterm election this century outside of 2004.

I enjoy Rasmussen because of its sheer number of polls and you can still use it to confirm trends, but I don't go to it for a prediction of how a state really looks.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: greenforest32 on September 01, 2012, 06:14:10 PM
The point is that the measure of accuracy should be the poll against the election results, not the poll against the polling average as the average can be wrong.

If there is a "house bias," which you claimed, then that should not effect the change in the poll, only the final number.

Quote
Ras is clearly the odd one out in the Florida polling. They've shown two different 15+ point swings in one month while Quinnipiac had one smaller swing over two months. Their past results show they are not credible compared to the other major pollsters. They're in their own league:


Here is the link you posted:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2012#Polling_2

It shows Nelson:

Rasmussen Reports:    July 9, 2012        37%    
Quinnipiac:    June 19-25, 2012:             41%    

Then it shows Nelson:

Quinnipiac    August 15-21, 2012                    50%
Rasmussen Reports    August 15, 2012     47%    

The polls show a gap of 4 points at most.  Rasmussen shows a gain of 10 points; Quinnipiac  shows a gain of 9 points.

I wasn't talking about Quinnipiac v Rasmussen, I claimed Rasmussen had two wild one month swings in an otherwise stable race:

March 13, 2012 - Mack +7
April 25, 2012 - Nelson +11

and

July 9, 2012 - Mack +9
August 15, 2012 - Nelson +7

I could see swings like that given Todd Akin comments but nothing like that has happened in Florida. They could be outliers but I think it's more narrative setting polls given Rasmussen's track record.

There are legitimate reasons to doubt their credibility. It's nothing new.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 01, 2012, 06:45:39 PM
Reuters Ipsos


Obama +1
Obama: 44 (+1)
Romney: 43 (-1)  


http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120901


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 01, 2012, 07:09:31 PM
Just curious...Do you doubt PPP's credibility?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: greenforest32 on September 01, 2012, 07:20:45 PM
They've been objectively better so I don't doubt them to the same degree as Rasmussen.

What I like about them is that they release all the cross-tabs and poll questions aside from the main race like state legislature ballots, approval ratings for other officials/issues, etc.

False equivalency is always nice.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 01, 2012, 11:21:09 PM
They've been objectively better so I don't doubt them to the same degree as Rasmussen.

What I like about them is that they release all the cross-tabs and poll questions aside from the main race like state legislature ballots, approval ratings for other officials/issues, etc.

False equivalency is always nice.

Yes, and you are making a false equivalency by comparing a "house bias," i.e. how much the poll varies from the result, with swings internal to multiple polls.  As was demonstrated, both Quinnipiac and Rasmussen showed about the same shift to Nelson, roughly over the same period.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 01, 2012, 11:28:33 PM
The height of Romney's convention bounce should be around now:



Mid week is more like it.  You still have samples from Wednesday afternnoon in the numbers.

This is a dangerous game you're playing J.J.  You could just accept a 1 point bounce for Romney at his weekend.  Saying this and you run the risk of the DNC going over well and Romney's midweek bounce being Obama +2.

No, I've actually expected a 1-3 point bounce, nothing dramatic.  It will take time for the RNC numbers to go in, and the same amount of time for the DNC numbers to go in.  We won't see DNC bounce, fully, until 3-4 days later.

It's not a game; it's just how polling works.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: greenforest32 on September 02, 2012, 12:10:04 AM
Yes, and you are making a false equivalency by comparing a "house bias," i.e. how much the poll varies from the result, with swings internal to multiple polls.  As was demonstrated, both Quinnipiac and Rasmussen showed about the same shift to Nelson, roughly over the same period.

Who was conflating them? They can do both. Like they push out polls to the right of more accurate pollsters and then correct when new polls come in, that's what I mean by polls setting a narrative.

And since when do we compare shifts solely along one candidate? The numbers could change for the other candidate thus leading to a wider gap between them and for that gap Quinnipiac is lower (+1 Nelson to +9 Nelson) compared to +9 Mack to +7 Nelson for Rasmussen. The same thing happened in November-April.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 02, 2012, 12:13:37 AM
Obama regains the lead! We can only hope that John Ker... err Mitt Romney keeps bouncing like this!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120901

Obama 44%
Romney 43%

I actually thought Romney would end the convention with a 5-point lead, but this is much better.

But still, their Independent breakdowns are nuts. Obama/Romney are tied at 27% (!!!) among Indies, with the rest voting for someone else or undecided. Probably hijacked by Gary Johnson and Ron Paul people, since its an Internet poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 02, 2012, 12:58:09 AM
Obama regains the lead! We can only hope that John Ker... err Mitt Romney keeps bouncing like this!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120901

Obama 44%
Romney 43%

I actually thought Romney would end the convention with a 5-point lead, but this is much better.

But still, their Independent breakdowns are nuts. Obama/Romney are tied at 27% (!!!) among Indies, with the rest voting for someone else or undecided. Probably hijacked by Gary Johnson and Ron Paul people, since its an Internet poll.

I've been saying 1-3 points overall, but I don't we'll get it until Monday to Wednesday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 02, 2012, 10:29:24 AM
The 'bots seem to be capturing something; Romney's up by 4.

I doubt it will last.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 02, 2012, 10:39:39 AM
Nate Silver: Romney's Convention Bounce Appears Middling So Far (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/01/sept-1-romneys-convention-bounce-appears-middling-so-far/)

Quote
One way to interpret the trend in the “now-cast” is that, so far, Mr. Romney’s bounce is hard to distinguish from the statistical noise that we ordinarily see in polls. Based on the data that they published on Saturday, Mr. Romney’s standing in the Rasmussen poll was two points better than its 60-day average, but it was one point worse than average in the Gallup poll.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast, which penalizes a candidate in its evaluation of polls conducted just after his party convention, interprets the data as being slightly negative for Mr. Romney. On Saturday, Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to 73.1 percent in the forecast, its highest figure since Aug. 16, when it was 73.6 percent.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 02, 2012, 11:34:40 AM
The 'bots seem to be capturing something; Romney's up by 4.

I doubt it will last.

By "'bots" do you mean "only Rasmussen"? :P


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 02, 2012, 11:39:38 AM
The 'bots seem to be capturing something; Romney's up by 4.

I doubt it will last.

By "'bots" do you mean "only Rasmussen"? :P

Ro(mney)bot = Rasmussen


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 02, 2012, 11:43:03 AM
The 'bots seem to be capturing something; Romney's up by 4.

I doubt it will last.

By "'bots" do you mean "only Rasmussen"? :P

Gallup hasn't reported yet.  Yes, Rasmussen = the 'bots. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 02, 2012, 11:48:15 AM
The 'bots seem to be capturing something; Romney's up by 4.

I doubt it will last.

By "'bots" do you mean "only Rasmussen"? :P

Gallup hasn't reported yet.  Yes, Rasmussen = the 'bots. 

Rasmussen On Monday August 27th:
Obama: 47%
Romney: 44%

Rasmussen Today:
Romney: 48%
Obama: 44%

Thats a net 7 point shift to Obama. I'd say that's a pretty fair bounce.

Reuters on Monday, August 27th
Obama: 46%
Romney 42%

Reuters today:
Obama: 44%
Romney: 43%

That's a net 3 point shift.

Still waiting on Gallup. But 2 of the 3 tracking polls show a shift.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 02, 2012, 12:30:51 PM
Too bad Reuters shifted two points away from Romney yesterday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 02, 2012, 12:36:45 PM
Sunday:

Rasmussen (LV): Romney +4  
Obama     44
Romney     48 (+1)

Gallup (RV): Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46


1 week ago

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47
Romney     45

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Devils30 on September 02, 2012, 12:50:32 PM
Only reason Romney gaining in Rasmussen is b/c they changed their formula to make it even more republican. If you really believe the electorate will be 38% GOP, 33% Dem and 29% indy then Mitt may really win easy!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 02, 2012, 03:36:50 PM
Today on Rasmussen (w/ leaners):
Obama - 45%
Romney - 49%

9/2/2008 (w/ leaners)
Obama - 51%
McCain - 45%

9/2/2004 (w/ leaners)
Bush - 51%
Kerry - 47%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 02, 2012, 03:40:51 PM
Too bad Reuters shifted two points away from Romney yesterday.

...and today it shifts back towards Romney: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/02/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120902


Obama - 45% (-)
Romney - 45% (+1)

Same poll on Monday, before the RNC.
Obama - 46%
Romney - 42%

So there's been a net 4 point swing to Romney on Reuters, and a net 7 point swing to Romney on Rasmussen. No bounce from Gallup.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 02, 2012, 03:42:22 PM
Reuters Update: 9/2/2012

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/02/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120902
Obama - 45% (-)
Romney - 45% (+1)

Same poll on Monday, before the RNC.
Obama - 46%
Romney - 42%

There's been a net 4 pt swing to Romney on Reuters, and a net 7 pt swing to Romney on Rasmussen. No bounce from Gallup.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on September 02, 2012, 03:45:15 PM
Ok, so if Rasmussen and Gallup are both crap (which would also screw up the average) what polls am I supposed to follow the race with?!?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 02, 2012, 03:51:50 PM
Ok, so if Rasmussen and Gallup are both crap (which would also screw up the average) what polls am I supposed to follow the race with?!?

As far as I can tell, around here, the only polls that are "crap" are the ones you disagree with. ;)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on September 02, 2012, 05:17:48 PM
Traditionally I track the race through the combined signs the state polls are pointing towards, CBS/NYT national polls and ABC/washington post nat'l polls. 

I dont care what your political philosophy is, the electorate in a Presidential election is not going to be GOP +4, so no, I'm not paying attention to the Rasmussen tracker.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 後援会 on September 02, 2012, 05:31:32 PM
Ok, so if Rasmussen and Gallup are both crap (which would also screw up the average) what polls am I supposed to follow the race with?!?

As far as I can tell, around here, the only polls that are "crap" are the ones you disagree with. ;)

Basically. I've never seen an actual criticism based on methodology. I've only seen "oh, that poll sucks because it has to be wrong".


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 後援会 on September 02, 2012, 05:33:28 PM
Quote
Romney was leading Obama among all-important independent voters by 33 percent to 28 percent, the poll found.

This is not a very helpful poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 02, 2012, 05:50:08 PM
Ok, so if Rasmussen and Gallup are both crap (which would also screw up the average) what polls am I supposed to follow the race with?!?

As far as I can tell, around here, the only polls that are "crap" are the ones you disagree with. ;)

Basically. I've never seen an actual criticism based on methodology. I've only seen "oh, that poll sucks because it has to be wrong".

The post above yours is criticism based on methodology. ;)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 02, 2012, 05:54:36 PM
Too bad Reuters shifted two points away from Romney yesterday.

...and today it shifts back towards Romney: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/02/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120902


Obama - 45% (-)
Romney - 45% (+1)

Same poll on Monday, before the RNC.
Obama - 46%
Romney - 42%

So there's been a net 4 point swing to Romney on Reuters, and a net 7 point swing to Romney on Rasmussen. No bounce from Gallup.

Rasmussen has shown the race to be about tied usually, hasn't it? Odd that Obama led by 3 just before the convention. In any case a 3-4 bounce seems to be showing up. Gallup won't show it for a while because they have a 7 day sample, so we have to be patient there.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 後援会 on September 02, 2012, 11:10:14 PM
Ok, so if Rasmussen and Gallup are both crap (which would also screw up the average) what polls am I supposed to follow the race with?!?

As far as I can tell, around here, the only polls that are "crap" are the ones you disagree with. ;)

Basically. I've never seen an actual criticism based on methodology. I've only seen "oh, that poll sucks because it has to be wrong".

The post above yours is criticism based on methodology. ;)

Not really. The argument is "There's absolutely no way the electorate is R+4. So the poll is wrong. So I can ignore it."

Now, don't get me wrong. I don't actually think the electorate is R+4. But you don't toss out a polls that you think are wrong. That's not how statistics work.

My attempt to explain why this poll may seem to not match what you would expect is that I suspect the same "convention bounce" phenomenon that causes more people to say they're voting for a candidate may also cause more people to identify with that's candidate.

I think there's this assumption that "oh, Rasmussen will have their bounce bring Romney up to +4, and then they'll adjust it to +8 with their R+4". I find that a very unlikely outcome.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 02, 2012, 11:28:52 PM
I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 03, 2012, 12:40:32 AM
When did Barack Obama or Mitt Romney say either of those things?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 03, 2012, 01:22:15 AM
Ok, so if Rasmussen and Gallup are both crap (which would also screw up the average) what polls am I supposed to follow the race with?!?

As far as I can tell, around here, the only polls that are "crap" are the ones you disagree with. ;)

Basically. I've never seen an actual criticism based on methodology. I've only seen "oh, that poll sucks because it has to be wrong".

The post above yours is criticism based on methodology. ;)

Not really. The argument is "There's absolutely no way the electorate is R+4. So the poll is wrong. So I can ignore it."

Now, don't get me wrong. I don't actually think the electorate is R+4. But you don't toss out a polls that you think are wrong. That's not how statistics work.

My attempt to explain why this poll may seem to not match what you would expect is that I suspect the same "convention bounce" phenomenon that causes more people to say they're voting for a candidate may also cause more people to identify with that's candidate.

I think there's this assumption that "oh, Rasmussen will have their bounce bring Romney up to +4, and then they'll adjust it to +8 with their R+4". I find that a very unlikely outcome.

It's still a criticism of the methodology, which you said nobody was doing. Of course you don't toss it out though. You probably weren't here for it, but people were doing the same with polls back in June and July and just saying they weren't going to look at it or consider it due to Dem friendly samples. I think a criticism of a overly GOP or Dem electorate is fair, but like you said there is no reason to throw out the poll. Just add it to the mix.

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack. <3


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Teemu on September 03, 2012, 01:33:40 AM

I dont care what your political philosophy is, the electorate in a Presidential election is not going to be GOP +4, so no, I'm not paying attention to the Rasmussen tracker.

If we look at the Rasmussen party ID poll history (2004,2006,2008,2010) for the 3 pre-election months August, September and October, on only 2008 August and September, the Rasmussen monthly party ID gap was more Republican than the eventual election exit poll party ID gap. The 2008 August and September numbers didn't have the full impact of the economic collapse yet, and the October party ID (D+7.1) was the same as the exit poll party ID.


rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

Rasmussen August Party ID gap, [Rasmussen October party ID gap], (exit poll of the November election night)

2010: D+1.2 [D+2.9] (D=R)
2008: D+5.7 [D+7.1] (D+7)
2006: D+5.3 [D+6.2] (D+2)
2004: D+2.6 [D+1.5] (D=R)

*the poll sample that had more favorable party ID gap for Republicans than the eventual exit poll on bold

So historically, Rasmussen party ID gap has been more favorable to the Democrats than the exit poll party ID gap. Maybe this year is the first time they got the party ID horribly wrong in favor of Republicans on election year, despite of their 15k sample size for the monthly party ID poll, maybe not.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Teemu on September 03, 2012, 02:01:10 AM
Also for the first time Republican party has better pre-convention net (un)favorables (44/50 {-6}) than Democratic party (43/52 {-9}) in Gallup polls, Gallup's numbers begin from 1992 convention.

gallup.com/poll/156959/gop-favorability-matches-2008-pre-convention-level.aspx

So it's not like Rasmussen is the only pollster spotting something going on with parties that hasn't been seen for a while.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 03, 2012, 08:45:10 AM
September 3, 2012

Rasmussen: Romney +4
Obama : 44% (-)
Romney: 48% (-)

Rasmussen w/ leaners: Romney +4
Obama: 46% (+1)
Romney: 50% (+1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 03, 2012, 08:55:00 AM
When did Barack Obama or Mitt Romney say either of those things?

Just a reminder, Lief.  Just a reminder. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 03, 2012, 08:58:49 AM

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack. <3

What polls showed Obama up big?

Right now, I think it is too early to use the polls to make a prediction about November, but that doesn't mean that I think the polls are bad, especially the main ones.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 03, 2012, 12:05:18 PM
Monday:

Rasmussen (LV): Romney +4  
Obama     44
Romney     48

Gallup (RV): Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46



1 week ago

Rasmussen: Obama +3
Obama     47
Romney     44

Gallup: Romney +1
Obama     46
Romney     47




Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 03, 2012, 12:34:10 PM

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack. <3

What polls showed Obama up big?

Right now, I think it is too early to use the polls to make a prediction about November, but that doesn't mean that I think the polls are bad, especially the main ones.

Plenty.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 03, 2012, 01:21:53 PM

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack. <3

What polls showed Obama up big?

Right now, I think it is too early to use the polls to make a prediction about November, but that doesn't mean that I think the polls are bad, especially the main ones.

Plenty.

Which ones, other than those that exist only in you own mind?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 03, 2012, 02:22:28 PM
Reuters IPSOS

LV: tied
 
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     45 (+2)

RV: Obama +1
Obama     43 (+1)
Romney     42 (+1)


1 week ago

LV: Obama +4  
Obama     46
Romney     42

RV: Obama +6
Obama     45
Romney     39


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on September 03, 2012, 03:50:00 PM
Why is Gallup using registered voters? Makes no sense to me.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 03, 2012, 04:52:01 PM

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack. <3

What polls showed Obama up big?

Right now, I think it is too early to use the polls to make a prediction about November, but that doesn't mean that I think the polls are bad, especially the main ones.

Plenty.

Which ones, other than those that exist only in you own mind?

There was a period from mid July to early August when there were multiple polls showing Obama close to replicating his winning margin from 2008. Also at the same time there were some very good polls for Obama in Ohio, including that Quinnipiac ones. During that time there was a lot of complaining about the polling going on....using basically the same excuses like partisan sampling not being current and what not. Do you really not remember that time, or are you willfully forgetting it to further your hack agenda?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 03, 2012, 05:22:29 PM

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack. <3

What polls showed Obama up big?

Right now, I think it is too early to use the polls to make a prediction about November, but that doesn't mean that I think the polls are bad, especially the main ones.

Plenty.

Which ones, other than those that exist only in you own mind?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-obama-lead-grows-as-romney-support-slips/

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/08/09/rel7b3.pdf

http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/obama-widens-lead-over-romney

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11840

http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/08/8-2-12-Topline-for-release.pdf

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/12768_July_Poll.pdf


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on September 03, 2012, 07:21:38 PM
Why is Gallup using registered voters? Makes no sense to me.

Makes perfect sense if your goal is to track changes in voter sentiment without having to worry about changing models mid-election.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 03, 2012, 07:50:06 PM
Why is Gallup using registered voters? Makes no sense to me.

Makes perfect sense if your goal is to track changes in voter sentiment without having to worry about changing models mid-election.

But why would that be a pollster's goal at this point? Shouldn't their goal be to use whatever survey model will most likely mimic the outcome of the election? And isn't a likely voter model more likely to do that than a registered voter model?

I don't know about everyone else, but I personally don't monitor polls to check their consistency with each other throughout time. I'm looking for the best predictor of the result in November.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 03, 2012, 08:26:33 PM

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack. <3

What polls showed Obama up big?

Right now, I think it is too early to use the polls to make a prediction about November, but that doesn't mean that I think the polls are bad, especially the main ones.

Plenty.

Which ones, other than those that exist only in you own mind?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-obama-lead-grows-as-romney-support-slips/

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/08/09/rel7b3.pdf

http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/obama-widens-lead-over-romney

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11840

http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/08/8-2-12-Topline-for-release.pdf

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/12768_July_Poll.pdf

The worse was using registered voters and showed 9 points, which might have been an outlier. 

Even that one had Obama below 50% (barely).  Those were not "big," as was suggested.

It's been showing an election that looks close.  It still does.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 03, 2012, 08:29:36 PM

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack. <3

What polls showed Obama up big?

Right now, I think it is too early to use the polls to make a prediction about November, but that doesn't mean that I think the polls are bad, especially the main ones.

Plenty.

Which ones, other than those that exist only in you own mind?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-obama-lead-grows-as-romney-support-slips/

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/08/09/rel7b3.pdf

http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/obama-widens-lead-over-romney

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11840

http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/08/8-2-12-Topline-for-release.pdf

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/12768_July_Poll.pdf

The worse was using registered voters and showed 9 points, which might have been an outlier. 

Even that one had Obama below 50% (barely).  Those were not "big," as was suggested.

It's been showing an election that looks close.  It still does.


You're laughable. How about you just admit that you were wrong for once?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Beet on September 03, 2012, 08:53:00 PM
He never will. A hack's a hack.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 03, 2012, 10:07:26 PM

You're laughable. How about you just admit that you were wrong for once?


Because these numbers never showed a great lead.  This has been close race so far.  On the whole, and there were outliers, the polls have been pretty good.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 03, 2012, 11:09:09 PM

I really don't know why everyone is attacking the polls.  There normally is a post convention bounce; we've all been expecting one.  It isn't gigantic. 

Now it's starting to show up.  If it's like the rest, it won't be around for long.

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:

If a candidate that say something like “I don't look at the polls,” or “The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,” that candidate will lose.

That could apply in this case.

LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack. <3

What polls showed Obama up big?

Right now, I think it is too early to use the polls to make a prediction about November, but that doesn't mean that I think the polls are bad, especially the main ones.

Plenty.

Which ones, other than those that exist only in you own mind?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-obama-lead-grows-as-romney-support-slips/

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/08/09/rel7b3.pdf

http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/obama-widens-lead-over-romney

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11840

http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/08/8-2-12-Topline-for-release.pdf

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/12768_July_Poll.pdf

The worse was using registered voters and showed 9 points, which might have been an outlier. 

Even that one had Obama below 50% (barely).  Those were not "big," as was suggested.

It's been showing an election that looks close.  It still does.


You're laughable. How about you just admit that you were wrong for once?


JJ is just being JJ. Let him be.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Andrew1 on September 04, 2012, 03:12:44 AM
Did Ipsos/Reuters release their tracking poll for Monday 3rd? I can't find any reference on their website or twitter.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 04, 2012, 10:01:49 AM
Romney +2 on Rass.

This bounce is +1 at best...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Dumbo on September 04, 2012, 11:41:52 AM
Someone in this forum predicted Romney +5 / +7 for the beginning of this week ...



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 04, 2012, 12:02:48 PM
Monday:

Rasmussen (LV): Romney +2  
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     47 (-1)

Gallup (RV): Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46

1 week ago

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47
Romney     45

Gallup: Romney +1
Obama     46
Romney     47



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 04, 2012, 12:13:21 PM
Is Gallup seriously showing a reverse bounce? Only 2 days of their 7 day sampling is before the convention started, correct?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 04, 2012, 12:41:46 PM
Did Ipsos/Reuters release their tracking poll for Monday 3rd? I can't find any reference on their website or twitter.

They'll probably continue today ...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 04, 2012, 01:04:23 PM
i posted it yesterday
 
Reuters IPSOS

LV: tied
 
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     45 (+2)

RV: Obama +1
Obama     43 (+1)
Romney     42 (+1)


1 week ago

LV: Obama +4  
Obama     46
Romney     42

RV: Obama +6
Obama     45
Romney     39


keep track here
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Andrew1 on September 04, 2012, 01:13:35 PM

What was the source? There is nothing for Monday 3rd on their website, the most recent is Sunday, which was day 7 of their tracking poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 04, 2012, 01:22:52 PM
I guess you are right. that is the latest they have released.

Its unclear if this poll is going to go beyond the DNC. Maybe it doesn't even belong in this thread.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Andrew1 on September 04, 2012, 02:22:17 PM
Tuesday's Ipsos poll is now on the Reuters website, with likely voters only:

LV: Romney +1
Romney 46% (+1)
Obama 45%

(Change from Sunday)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 04, 2012, 02:27:47 PM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/04/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8830YX20120904

Today's update:
Obama: 45% (-2)
Romney: 46% (+1)

So considering that Obama led on the Monday before the RNC 46-42%, this represents a NET 5 point gain for Romney. Only slighty smaller than Rasmussen's net 7 point gain.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pa2011 on September 04, 2012, 02:45:16 PM
Gallup announced today that Romney joins John Kerry and George McGovern as the only presidential candidates in last 50 years to get NO bounce out of his convention.  Also, if you are willing to buy Rasmussen,  Romney lost 2 points today and now leads Obama by only 47 to 45. So seems Romney's Rasmussen "bounce" was very short lived.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 04, 2012, 02:49:49 PM
The post RNC polls have been a mixed bag with no consensus. There is some evidence of little or no bounce and some of a good sized bounce.

now that the DNC has started we may never really know. But it is clear that since pre-Ryan, the race has tightened to close to a tie. The challenge for the Dems is to use their convention to put things back the way they were in July/early August.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on September 04, 2012, 04:14:28 PM
But it is clear that since pre-Ryan, the race has tightened to close to a tie.

Which is ironic as there have been numerous mainstream articles stating what little bounce Ryan provided. It was little, but it was also permanent.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 04, 2012, 04:15:33 PM
permanent? Nothing is permanent.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on September 04, 2012, 04:24:10 PM

A month long bounce is not a bounce.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 05, 2012, 12:45:55 PM
Wednesday (9/5/12) update

Rasmussen : Romney +3
Romney: 48% (+1)
Obama: 45% (-)

Rasmussen swing-state poll: Romney +3
Romney 47% (+1)
Obama: 44% (-)

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama: 47% (-)
Romney: 46% (-)

Ipsos:


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 05, 2012, 12:46:48 PM
Gallup is still 47-46 Obama. This doesn't move at all ...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: mondale84 on September 05, 2012, 02:02:08 PM
Wednesday (9/5/12) update

Rasmussen : Romney +3
Romney: 48% (+1)
Obama: 45% (-)

Rasmussen swing-state poll: Romney +3
Romney 47% (+1)
Obama: 44% (-)

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama: 47% (-)
Romney: 46% (-)

Ipsos:

This is bad news for Romney, considering he was leading by 4 in Rasmussen over the weekend...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 05, 2012, 02:12:44 PM
Ipsos #s just came in. Wonder if they'll try to act like Romney's still slipping?

Wednesday (9/5/12) update

Rasmussen : Romney +3
Romney: 48% (+1)
Obama: 45% (-)

Rasmussen swing-state poll: Romney +3
Romney 47% (+1)
Obama: 44% (-)

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama: 47% (-)
Romney: 46% (-)

Ipsos: Romney +2
Obama: 44% (-1)
Romney: 46% (-)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 05, 2012, 02:20:37 PM
Day 10 update (Wednesday)

Obama: 44% (-1)
Romney: 46% (-)

On Monday before the RNC, Obama led 46-42%.

No link yet. It was just tweeted by a Reuters reporter.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 05, 2012, 02:23:33 PM
Day 10 update (Wednesday)

Obama: 44% (-1)
Romney: 45% (-)

On Monday before the RNC, Obama led 46-42%.

No link yet. It was just tweeted by a Reuters reporter.

It's actually -1 for both of them.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 05, 2012, 02:25:52 PM
Day 10 update (Wednesday)

Obama: 44% (-1)
Romney: 45% (-)

On Monday before the RNC, Obama led 46-42%.

No link yet. It was just tweeted by a Reuters reporter.

It's actually -1 for both of them.

I actually made a mistake. Romney should be at 46%, not 45%. Romney is unchanged from yesterday, Obama down one.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 06, 2012, 08:44:19 AM
Thursday update 9/6/12 - NO BOUNCE from Rasmussen, Gallup ... YET.

With one night of Rasmussen's surveys being taken AFTER the Michelle Obama speech, Rasmussen finds Romney maintaining his 3 point lead over Obama from yesterday, while with leaners included, Romney moves into a 4 point lead.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Obama: 44% (-1)
Romney: 47% (-1)

Rasmussen w/ leaners: Romney +4
Obama: 45% (-2)
Romney: 49% (-)

Rasmussen daily swing-state vote: Romney +4
Romney: 47% (-)
Obama: 43% (-1)

With 1/5 of Gallup's surveys being taken AFTER the Michelle Obama speech, there is no bounce in terms of the horserace yet, though Obama's job approval rating has rebounded to 49/45%

Gallup: Obama +1
Obama: 47& (-)
Romney: 46% (-)

With 1/4 of Reuters surveys being taken AFTER the Michelle Obama speech, there could be a slight bounce in Obama's favor, given that yesterday, when 4/4 of the survey nights were conducted before the start of the DNC, Romney led 46-44%. Could also just be noise.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/06/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88513B20120906

Ipsos: Romney +1
Obama: 44% (-)
Romney: 45% (-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 06, 2012, 09:57:09 AM
Thursday update 9/6/12 - NO BOUNCE from Rasmussen, YET.

With one night of Rasmussen's surveys being taken AFTER the Michelle Obama speech, Rasmussen finds Romney maintaining his 3 point lead over Obama from yesterday, while with leaners included, Romney moves into a 4 point lead.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Obama: 44% (-1)
Romney: 47% (-1)

Rasmussen w/ leaners: Romney +4
Obama: 45% (-2)
Romney: 49% (-)

Gallup:

Ipsos:

I wouldn't look for a bounce on Rasmussen until at least tomorrow or Saturday, at the earliest.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on September 06, 2012, 11:57:55 AM
The Rasmussen bounce came from fiddling with the party IDs. Until they're changed back, of course Romney's bounce won't dissipate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 06, 2012, 12:13:40 PM
Also a lot of a convention bounce comes for increased base enthusiasm, which doesn't show up if you weigh by party ID like Rasmussen does (not even taking into account how ridiculous his current party ID weightings are...).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 06, 2012, 12:18:47 PM
The Rasmussen bounce came from fiddling with the party IDs. Until they're changed back, of course Romney's bounce won't dissipate.

I think he's talking about a Democratic bounce (which probably won't show up until the weekend).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 後援会 on September 06, 2012, 12:57:17 PM
Also a lot of a convention bounce comes for increased base enthusiasm, which doesn't show up if you weigh by party ID like Rasmussen does (not even taking into account how ridiculous his current party ID weightings are...).

While Rasmussen's local polling has been funky (during the midterm elections), his party ID has actually been correct in 2008 and 2010. In 2008, he had Dems up 41-33 when they won 39-32. In 2010, he had them died at 35, which was what happened.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 06, 2012, 01:10:53 PM
The gallup horserace number has been surprisingly steady for the last month. It has held between Romney+1 to Obama+1 for a month.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 06, 2012, 01:53:00 PM
Day 10 update (Thursday)

Obama: 44% (-)
Romney: 45% (-1)

This tracking poll is reported on a four day rolling average. So that means 1/4 of the survey was conducted after Michelle Obama's speech on Tuesday night. This 1 point could be a slight bump in Obama's favor due to the speech, or statistical noise. No link yet. It was just tweeted by a Reuters reporter.

Edited...link added. Reuters spinning it as no bounce for Obama. Apparently some internet interviews were conducted during the day on Wednesday. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/06/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88513B20120906


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2012, 12:27:02 AM
The Obama-bounce will not show up fully until next Tuesday or Wednesday, when people read about the convention or saw it on TV over the weekend. Because now they have to work.

And keep in mind that in the trackers, Clinton's speech was not yet covered. Interviewing takes place usually from 4pm to 9pm and Clinton spoke after that.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2012, 12:30:10 AM
I've also merged the Ipsos Tracker with this thread now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2012, 12:58:41 AM
Quote
Interview dates: Sept 2-6, 2012

Base: 1,623 registered voters (RV), 1,363 Likely Voters (LV)

649 RV Democrats, 700 RV Republicans, 189 RV Independents, 215 Non-aligned RVs

?

When they started there were more Democrats in the sample, now there are much less.

Also, Obama is 1 point ahead among Independents in the latest tracking release.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 07, 2012, 08:30:12 AM


LOL where were you when people were discounting polls earlier this summer that showed Obama up big? You're such a lovable hack. <3

No, but there is a corollary to the first rule:

Corollary to J. J.’s First Rule of ElectionsNever trust just one poll.  Trust several and remember that the electorate changes its mind quickly.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 07, 2012, 08:45:11 AM
Friday Update

Rasmussen is showing the beginnings of a bump, with 2/3 nights in the survey coming after the Michelle speech, and 1/3 coming after Clinton's speech.

Rasmussen: Romney +1
Obama: 45% (+1)
Romney: 46% (-1)

Rasmussen w/ leaners: Romney +1
Obama: 46%
Romney: 47%

Rasmussen Swing-State poll w/ leaners: Romney +2
Obama: 46%
Romney: 48%

Gallup is definitely measuring a bump today, given that obama's job rating is up to 52/43%, and the horse race has been a 1 point race for about 1 month. Important to remember though that Gallup is the only of the tracking polls still using registered voters. Ipsos and Rasmussen use likely voters.

Gallup: Obama +3
Obama: 48% (+1)
Romney - 45% (-1)

Reuters/Ipsos is also seeing what they believe is the beginning of a bounce. http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5758

Ipsos: Obama +2
Obama: 46% (+2)
Romney: 44% (-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2012, 08:55:27 AM
Rasmussen is showing the beginnings of a bump, with 2/3 nights in the survey coming after the Michelle and Clinton speeches.

No. 2/3 of the interviews were done before Clinton spoke, as Rasmussen says in their release.

Which makes sense, because pollsters interview up until 9pm usually and Clinton spoke after that.

Quote
These updates are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before Bill Clinton’s prime-time speech last night at the Democratic National Convention. Only one-third of the interviews were conducted following the first night of the convention.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 07, 2012, 10:50:27 AM
Tender Branson, I'm not sure what update you're quoting, but you're not quoting today's update. Here is today's update:

Quote
These updates are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before President Obama’s  prime-time speech last night at the Democratic National Convention. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


You were reading the update from yesterday. So, like I said, if the interviews were conducted on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, then reported Friday morning, that would mean 2/3 of the interviews were conducted AFTER the Michelle/Clinton speeches. Do you see that now?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: riceowl on September 07, 2012, 11:18:02 AM
No. The Clinton speech was Wednesday night. As such, only the Thursday interviews took place after the Clinton speech. You can't lump Michelle and Bill as being on the same night because they....weren't.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 07, 2012, 11:28:01 AM
No. The Clinton speech was Wednesday night. As such, only the Thursday interviews took place after the Clinton speech. You can't lump Michelle and Bill as being on the same night because they....weren't.
I should have been more clear. 2/3 of the interviews came after Michelle's speech, 1/3 came after Clinton's speech. So 2 nights of the convention are being accounted for out of the 3 day survey.

Tuesday Day - Rasmussen interviews
Tuesday Night - Michelle Speech
Wednesday Day - Rasmussen interviews
Wednesday Night - Clinton speech
Thursday Day - Rasmussen Interiews
Thursday night - Obama speech
Friday morning - Rasmussen reports


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on September 07, 2012, 11:35:57 AM
If Gallup is going to continue using RV it's time to discount them.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pa2011 on September 07, 2012, 12:13:30 PM
Gallup Tracking has Obama's approval up 3 points over night, to 52 percent. Obama leads Romney head to head in Gallup now 48 to 45, a point increase since yesterday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 07, 2012, 12:27:13 PM
I would like Gallup to switch over to likely voters. We are getting to the point where registered voter polls don't tell us much.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 後援会 on September 07, 2012, 01:26:39 PM
The Gallup polls actually surprise me. That's one hell of a convention bounce. It's quite ominous.

Though not ominous enough to hit the panic button.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on September 07, 2012, 01:27:46 PM
But it's RV. It would nice to know what the numbers are for those who are actually planning on voting.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Emperor Dubya on September 07, 2012, 01:28:19 PM
Uh oh.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 後援会 on September 07, 2012, 01:29:52 PM
But it's RV. It would nice to know what the numbers are for those who are actually planning on voting.

Probably just three points more Republican? Which is around the historical norm, I think.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pa2011 on September 07, 2012, 01:43:19 PM
Correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't that Gallup bounce just basically be off only Michelle Obama and opening night. Maybe somewhat Clinton on Wednesday, but that still wouldn't show up for a few days, considering its a 7-day rolling average? Convention didn't even start till Tuesday night this year.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 後援会 on September 07, 2012, 01:44:32 PM
Correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't that Gallup bounce just basically be off only Michelle Obama and opening night. Maybe somewhat Clinton on Wednesday, but that still wouldn't show up for a few days, considering its a 7-day rolling average?

The approval is daily. The Romney-Obama horserace is a rolling average. BTW, I don't think the "bounces" were unexpected.

()

Seems pretty accurate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 07, 2012, 01:47:00 PM
The approval is a three-day poll, the head to head is a seven day poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 07, 2012, 01:49:58 PM
Obama will open up a lead of up to 5-7 points in the coming days on Gallup.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on September 07, 2012, 01:51:13 PM
I would like Gallup to switch over to likely voters. We are getting to the point where registered voter polls don't tell us much.

I am pretty sure the approval is adults and the tracking poll is registered votes.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pa2011 on September 07, 2012, 02:00:38 PM
Though hearing Gallup is only RV and not LV, think polls with LV samples are going to show a pretty decent bump in Democratic enthusiasm. From what I am seeing and hearing, seems Democrats got a pretty big jolt of enthusiasm from their convention and DNC may have succeeded in closing the enthusiasm gap. Not sure it lasts till election day, but, as of now, Democrats seem pretty jazzed up


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 07, 2012, 02:22:36 PM
Keep in mind that word of worse-than-expected job growth just broke this morning. The bounce could be somewhat short lived.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 07, 2012, 02:24:44 PM
The Gallup poll has been very very very stead for the last month. It has either been tied or with Romney or Obama +1.

And if last month's job report didnt hurt Obama, why will this month's hurt him?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: xavier110 on September 07, 2012, 02:25:06 PM
Keep in mind that word of worse-than-expected job growth just broke this morning. The bounce could be somewhat short lived.

Except this is a 7-day poll so you're first going to see the bounce in effect.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on September 07, 2012, 02:26:03 PM
Keep in mind that word of worse-than-expected job growth just broke this morning. The bounce could be somewhat short lived.
The UE rate fell to 8.1. That'll probably be the headline.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 07, 2012, 02:27:34 PM
The unemployment rate is down, and The Media is trying to spin that against Obama?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on September 07, 2012, 02:28:47 PM
The Gallup poll has been very very very stead for the last month. It has either been tied or with Romney or Obama +1.

And if last month's job report didnt hurt Obama, why will this month's hurt him?

Exactly.

The Jobs report sucked, no doubt about it.....but it has also sucked for the most part since April, and yet Obama's numbers have been fairly consistent.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ty440 on September 07, 2012, 02:53:12 PM
ARG  Sep 4-6

Obama     46%
Romney    49%

Likely Voters

http://americanresearchgroup.com/ (http://americanresearchgroup.com/)


Romney has truly closed the gap since Mid-August. Are we looking at Bush vs. Gore 2000 all over again?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 07, 2012, 02:55:13 PM
Isn't ARG a Republican pollster?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 07, 2012, 03:04:28 PM
Is ARG going to start daily tracking?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: mondale84 on September 07, 2012, 03:08:56 PM
ARG  Sep 4-6

Obama     46%
Romney    49%

Likely Voters

http://americanresearchgroup.com/ (http://americanresearchgroup.com/)


Romney has truly closed the gap since Mid-August. Are we looking at Bush vs. Gore 2000 all over again?

ARG is a troll/joke pollster... ::)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 07, 2012, 04:47:36 PM
ARG  Sep 4-6

Obama     46%
Romney    49%

Likely Voters

http://americanresearchgroup.com/ (http://americanresearchgroup.com/)


Romney has truly closed the gap since Mid-August. Are we looking at Bush vs. Gore 2000 all over again?

ARG is a troll/joke pollster... ::)

Not a great pollster, but not a Republican one.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 07, 2012, 05:54:23 PM
Reuters/Ipsos for today (link (http://www.cnbc.com/id/48946039))

Obama: 46 (+2)
Romney 44 (-1)

Oh, MIA edited his post with these numbers on the last page, nevermind.

So that's +2, +2 and +3 in the trackers so far. Not bad at all.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Devils30 on September 07, 2012, 06:08:23 PM
Rasmussen's R+5 national sample with a one point Romney lead really doesnt show promising signs for the GOP. That poll is designed for Romney to always be in the lead.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 07, 2012, 08:20:19 PM
Rasmussen's R+5 national sample with a one point Romney lead really doesnt show promising signs for the GOP. That poll is designed for Romney to always be in the lead.

It probly is less than 5 points, though there is a "house effect" that skews it GOP. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Devils30 on September 07, 2012, 08:59:35 PM
No, it's that they weight every national poll by party ID. The September numbers were absurd as the R's had like a 4-5% advantage (check it out).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 07, 2012, 09:36:57 PM
As Nate Silver points out, the really bad news for Romney from that Gallup tracker is that most of it 5 out of 7 of the days that make it up are from interviews before the DNC even began, when his bounce theoretically should have been at its height.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on September 07, 2012, 10:26:05 PM
RV=FAIL. Hopefully the Obama bounce is real though.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 07, 2012, 10:29:21 PM
No, it's that they weight every national poll by party ID. The September numbers were absurd as the R's had like a 4-5% advantage (check it out).

It was no where near a 4-5 point advantage, and in 2008, they were closer than Gallup.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 08, 2012, 10:18:42 AM
No, it's that they weight every national poll by party ID. The September numbers were absurd as the R's had like a 4-5% advantage (check it out).

It was no where near a 4-5 point advantage, and in 2008, they were closer than Gallup.

Their party ID is R+4.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2012, 11:27:08 AM
Rassy today:

46% Obama (+1)
44% Romney (-2)

Of course, only 1/3 of the interviews were taken after the Obama speech and 2/3 after Clinton.

Also from Rassy's release:

Quote
The president is enjoying a convention bounce that has been evident in the last two nights of tracking data. He led by two just before the Republican convention, so he has already erased the modest bounce Romney received from his party’s celebration in Tampa. Perhaps more significantly, Democratic interest in the campaign has soared. For the first time, those in the president’s party are following the campaign as closely as GOP voters. Interest in a campaign is typically considered a good indicator of turnout.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2012, 11:31:37 AM
Nate Silver says:

Quote
Big Bounce Coming for Obama?

Nate Silver says tracking polls are pointing toward "a decent-size convention bounce" for President Obama and says it's "unlikely, in fact, that the movement in the polls reflects statistical noise alone."

"What's a bit more worrisome for Mr. Romney is that Gallup's reporting of the head-to-head results in its poll occurs over a lengthy seven-day window, meaning that only a minority of the interviews in the poll were conducted after the major speeches at the Democratic convention. In fact, most of the interviews in the poll were conducted just after the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla., a period in which Mr. Romney should have been enjoying a convention bounce of his own."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/08/big_bounce_coming_for_obama.html


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on September 08, 2012, 12:00:49 PM
Gallup

Obama-49
Romney-45


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on September 08, 2012, 12:02:06 PM
Looking like Obama might hit 50.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 08, 2012, 12:05:46 PM
A sample that's only 1 out of 7 from after the DNC completely ended and Obama's already up 4%. Nice.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2012, 12:07:17 PM

Easily. Maybe already tomorrow, if not, then Monday or Tuesday. Because there's quite a lag in Gallup's 7-day tracker. Only 2 out of 7 days (THU/FRI) so far have been after Clinton spoke. Clinton of course spoke on WED, but the interviews typically end at 9pm and he spoke after that.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on September 08, 2012, 12:11:43 PM
A sample that's only 1 out of 7 from after the DNC completely ended and Obama's already up 4%. Nice.

Dr Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium argued after the DNC that Romney in all probability received a negative bounce and that much of his uptick was the end of a Ryan bounce. If as the tracking polls indicate that Obama started to receive a bounce before the DNC really got going then it suggests that the post convention weekend/Monday morning hangover drove Obama upwards and helps confirm his theory.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 08, 2012, 12:13:05 PM

Easily. Maybe already tomorrow, if not, then Monday or Tuesday. Because there's quite a lag in Gallup's 7-day tracker. Only 2 out of 7 days (THU/FRI) so far have been after Clinton spoke. Clinton of course spoke on WED, but the interviews typically end at 9pm and he spoke after that.

True, but you also have to remember with each passing day, we're adding post-DNC days into the 7-day rolling average. Those days will likely feature less favorable coverage than the President received during the convention (jobs numbers, daily back and forth between candidates, etc.). I expect Gallup to "max out" the convention bounce by Sunday. After that, we'll either see a moderate, though stable Obama lead, or a return to parity, like it was before the DNC.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2012, 12:13:32 PM
Assuming that Obama led by about 1% in the first 5 days (which is what Gallup showed) and now he's 4% ahead with 2 more nights in, this would yield a lead of about 8% in the previous 2 nights alone.

1+1+1+1+1+8+8 = 21/7 = 3% lead

But actually, he's ahead by 4 today, which means that either he led by more than 1% in the first 5 nights or he led by about 10% in the past 2 days.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Devils30 on September 08, 2012, 12:20:00 PM
PPP tweeted that this weekends polls looking like 2008. Obama is getting a nice bounce despite what FOX News wants to say.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 08, 2012, 12:22:46 PM
Folks, it's gonna be a blowout.

It's gonna be an absolute, complete blowout.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2012, 12:28:17 PM
This election looks so ridiculously 2004-like polling-technically, it's almost unbelievable:

()

Kerry got a VP bounce from Edwards, like Romney with Ryan.

Kerry almost got no convention bounce, like Romney.

Bush got a huge convention bounce from which Kerry never really fully recovered from.

Obama is currently on the way to build a big bounce as well ... but ... will Romney recover and win ?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on September 08, 2012, 12:30:59 PM
I think Bush's lead continued to grow after the convention but Bush almost ruined it all with that first debate. I don't think Obama is likely to do the same.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 08, 2012, 12:36:58 PM
The Republicans destroyed Kerry in September and October with the swift-boat ads. He never recovered from that. I don't see that happining this time.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2012, 12:39:23 PM
I think the Obama campaign should just air that Romney-singing-ad once again in the final week in all swing states for 50 Million $ and he could have the election in his pocket.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 08, 2012, 12:45:54 PM
One difference between 2004 and 2012 is that Kerry was leading Bush during the summer, before the RNC and the swift boat attacks permanently shifted the race towards Bush. This year, on the other hand, according to RCP (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html) Romney has never led Obama, even by 0.1%. The best he did was an exact tie, at the height of the RNC/Ryan bounce. I don't want to jinx things and the dynamics of the race could definitely still change, but I think it's very possible that we may look back on 2012 as never being as close as the conventional wisdom said it was.

edit: Nate Silver just tweeted this same point. That plagiarist.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 08, 2012, 02:28:16 PM
Just for fun, check out Rasmussen's tracking poll for Today (Sept 8th ) in each of the last two elections (these numbers include "leaners.")

Today: Obama +1
Obama: 47%
Romney: 46%

Sep 8, 2008: McCain +1
McCain: 48%
Obama: 47%

Sep 8, 2004: Bush +2
Bush: 50%
Kerry: 48%

And here are the RCP averages for Sep 8

Today: Obama +1
Obama: 47%
Romney: 46%

2008: McCain +3
Obama: 45%
McCain: 48%

2004: Bush +7
Bush: 50%
Kerry: 43%



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 08, 2012, 02:52:20 PM
No Ipsos poll today?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 08, 2012, 03:28:32 PM

Not yet apparently. http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/reuters-polls/

I've seen them post as late as 5pm EST before, but usually before now. Don't know why they would take a day off, if they are.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 08, 2012, 03:44:51 PM
The last time Obama led Romney by as much as 4 points in the daily Gallup tracking poll was about 6 weeks ago, on July 21st, when he led 48-44%.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 08, 2012, 03:47:02 PM
Come on, Reuters, what the hell?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 08, 2012, 03:48:34 PM
Folks, it's gonna be a blowout.

It's gonna be an absolute, complete blowout.

I wonder if you will be the mypalfish of this election.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 08, 2012, 03:51:12 PM
This election looks so ridiculously 2004-like polling-technically, it's almost unbelievable:

()

Kerry got a VP bounce from Edwards, like Romney with Ryan.

Kerry almost got no convention bounce, like Romney.

Bush got a huge convention bounce from which Kerry never really fully recovered from.

Obama is currently on the way to build a big bounce as well ... but ... will Romney recover and win ?

The only difference might be that Obama has a much higher downside risk due to the economy. Also while the Iraq was was starting to worsen by 2004, Bush had ensured Kerry was not seen as a viable alternative on foreign policy. Has Obama done the same with the economy vs Romney. I think the only state where that might be true is Ohio.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 08, 2012, 03:54:47 PM
Reuters is here. The bounce continues:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/08/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88619X20120908?

Obama 47% (+1)
Romney 43% (-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 08, 2012, 03:57:17 PM
Obama: 47% (+1)
Romney: 43% (-1)

Quote
"The bump is actually happening. I know there was some debate whether it would happen... but it's here," said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark

lol, that ellipsis


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 08, 2012, 03:59:00 PM
Nate Silver agrees with Tender wrt Obama's lead at the moment:

Quote
It looks to me like Obama has been running ~7-9 points ahead of Romney since the Clinton speech to have gained ground so quickly.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/244538584793743361


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 08, 2012, 04:01:41 PM
If we get a non-tracker national poll in the next couple of days, it could be truly scary looking for Romney.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on September 08, 2012, 04:03:34 PM
Obamamentum!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on September 08, 2012, 04:04:31 PM
If we get a non-tracker national poll in the next couple of days, it could be truly scary looking for Romney.

Depends which firm.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 08, 2012, 04:10:16 PM
Nate Silver agrees with Tender wrt Obama's lead at the moment:

Quote
It looks to me like Obama has been running ~7-9 points ahead of Romney since the Clinton speech to have gained ground so quickly.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/244538584793743361

Romney will be in a very difficult place if those numbers are true. And PPP seems to suggest that Nate Silver is right.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 08, 2012, 04:18:45 PM
We,ll also see the unemployment number reaction hitting the polls, but pro baby not fully until today's sample.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 08, 2012, 04:22:23 PM
The unemployment numbers came out on Fridaymorning, so they are probably in the same sample as Obama's acceptance speech from Thursdayevening.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 08, 2012, 04:32:22 PM
The unemployment numbers came out on Fridaymorning, so they are probably in the same sample as Obama's acceptance speech from Thursdayevening.

Assuming that everyone has the information instantly, yes.  Most people don't.  The may check the Internet in later in the day, or wait for the evening news, or even wait to actually read a paper.  There is some lag.

We know and comment on things as they are happening.  Most people don't.

Two places I check for breaking national/international news, cable or here.  If I'm out of the house, I can't do that.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 08, 2012, 04:41:01 PM
The numbers are on tv, radio and the internet within minutes. I think most people will know of the numbers before they are home from work. Before the pollsters will call them.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 08, 2012, 04:58:20 PM
Everyone - Democrat, Republican, Independent alike will have to admit that Obama has shown amazing resilience in the face of awful head-winds. I'm convinced any other president would be heading into this election at a severe disadvantage, and polling indicates he isn't. Obama's the first "teflon president" we've had since Reagan, as much as I hate to admit it. If he wins reelection, given the economy, it will be historic. And right now, it appears as though he could.

Even if Romney pulls out the smallest of victories, I think most historians and economists will think he fell short of what he should have been able to do against Obama.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 08, 2012, 05:05:00 PM
I could have sworn someone here was arguing a week ago that Romney had established a new permanent lead.   Because of course things never change in politics.

Anyway it appears that the DNC is getting a bigger bump than even RNC bump + Ryan bump. I still believe the race will settle into Obama +2 by the end of the month. Of course this could be Obama + 4 in most of the country but Obama +1 or tied in the swing states getting the Romney carpet bombing.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 08, 2012, 05:17:36 PM
The numbers are on tv, radio and the internet within minutes. I think most people will know of the numbers before they are home from work. Before the pollsters will call them.

At 7:40 AM ET yesterday, even most of the regulars here were not looking at the numbers.  It will take a few hours to get out. 

On Gallup, those numbers won't even be fully internalized until the end of next week. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on September 08, 2012, 05:19:44 PM
The numbers are on tv, radio and the internet within minutes. I think most people will know of the numbers before they are home from work. Before the pollsters will call them.

At 7:40 AM ET yesterday, even most of the regulars here were not looking at the numbers.  It will take a few hours to get out. 

On Gallup, those numbers won't even be fully internalized until the end of next week. 
At 7:40 AM not even the Romney Campaign was looking at the numbers. They or us would've had to have had some very high connections in the government.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 08, 2012, 05:39:09 PM
The numbers are on tv, radio and the internet within minutes. I think most people will know of the numbers before they are home from work. Before the pollsters will call them.

At 7:40 AM ET yesterday, even most of the regulars here were not looking at the numbers.  It will take a few hours to get out. 

On Gallup, those numbers won't even be fully internalized until the end of next week. 
At 7:40 AM not even the Romney Campaign was looking at the numbers. They or us would've had to have had some very high connections in the government.

Sorry, I forgot my account here is set on Central Time.  :)  Yes, it was out at 8:30 AM ET. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 08, 2012, 05:41:11 PM
The pollsters will also not start polling at 8:30 AM.

Like I said, most people, not all, but most, will know these numbers by the end of the day. So they will be part of the same sample as Obama's speech. Maybe not entirely, but for the most part. 

And it's true that Gallup is slow. On Gallup the RNC convention is now fully internalized and it doesn't look good for them.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on September 08, 2012, 06:34:26 PM
Seriously, people think that the number "90,000 jobs gained" is going to make any sizable impact in voters' intentions?

Really?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 08, 2012, 06:45:03 PM
Seriously, people think that the number "90,000 jobs gained" is going to make any sizable impact in voters' intentions?

Really?

Yes you know all those working class white suburban "Walmart moms" in Ohio are now saying "analysts were expecting 125,000 jobs! I'm Voting Romney!"


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 08, 2012, 08:17:00 PM
Seriously, people think that the number "90,000 jobs gained" is going to make any sizable impact in voters' intentions?

Really?

Yes you know all those working class white suburban "Walmart moms" in Ohio are now saying "analysts were expecting 125,000 jobs! I'm Voting Romney!"

It depends how it was reported.  In this case, it was almost uniformly reported as the economy losing jobs, in other words, "Things just got worse."  It wasn't just Fox, but CNN, MSNBC, and the networks and local news.  That was the reporting in print as well, with the Phila Inquirer calling it "Grim Job News."  http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/20120907_ap_obamagetsgrimjobnewsromneypouncesonit.html



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 08, 2012, 08:20:29 PM
It depends how it was reported.  In this case, it was almost uniformly reported as the economy losing jobs, in other words, "Things just got worse."  It wasn't just Fox, but CNN, MSNBC, and the networks and local news.  That was the reporting in print as well, with the Phila Inquirer calling it "Grim Job News."  http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/20120907_ap_obamagetsgrimjobnewsromneypouncesonit.html

Just more proof of how The Media's bias stinks to high hell. They NEVER talked like this in 2004.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Devils30 on September 08, 2012, 08:31:13 PM
Some will like that the unemployment rate went down. Just like last months report didnt move Obama up, this wont drop him. If Obama is up 2-4 in Rasmussen, with that R+4 sample it means FiveThirtyEight is dead on with Obama getting a 7-9 point bounce.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 08, 2012, 08:32:15 PM
It depends how it was reported.  In this case, it was almost uniformly reported as the economy losing jobs, in other words, "Things just got worse."  It wasn't just Fox, but CNN, MSNBC, and the networks and local news.  That was the reporting in print as well, with the Phila Inquirer calling it "Grim Job News."  http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/20120907_ap_obamagetsgrimjobnewsromneypouncesonit.html

Just more proof of how The Media's bias stinks to high hell. They NEVER talked like this in 2004.

Well, because in 2004, the numbers were improving and unemployment was rather dramatically lower.  


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 08, 2012, 08:33:02 PM
Well, because in 2004, the numbers were improving and unemployment was rather dramatically lower.  

Except that it wasn't.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 08, 2012, 08:47:50 PM
Well, because in 2004, the numbers were improving and unemployment was rather dramatically lower.  

Except that it wasn't.

Except that it was.  Unemployment was lower.  http://www.miseryindex.us/indexbymonth.aspx?type=UR 

Job creation actually broke even by the Fall of 2004.  http://www.truthfulpolitics.com/http:/truthfulpolitics.com/comments/u-s-job-creation-by-president-political-party/



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 08, 2012, 08:50:22 PM
Well, because in 2004, the numbers were improving and unemployment was rather dramatically lower.  

Except that it wasn't.

Except that it was.  Unemployment was lower.  http://www.miseryindex.us/indexbymonth.aspx?type=UR 

Job creation actually broke even by the Fall of 2004.  http://www.truthfulpolitics.com/http:/truthfulpolitics.com/comments/u-s-job-creation-by-president-political-party/



More net jobs were created in August 2012 alone than were created January 2001-January 2009. Period.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on September 08, 2012, 08:52:24 PM
Another tracker to keep track of.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election

Quote
Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

We're adding the RAND national tracking poll to our database. Methodology is unorthodox, but (IMO) in a smart way. http://bit.ly/TwwL6k

Obama 47.97
Romney 45.33



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 08, 2012, 09:06:33 PM
Well, because in 2004, the numbers were improving and unemployment was rather dramatically lower.  

Except that it wasn't.

Except that it was.  Unemployment was lower.  http://www.miseryindex.us/indexbymonth.aspx?type=UR 

Job creation actually broke even by the Fall of 2004.  http://www.truthfulpolitics.com/http:/truthfulpolitics.com/comments/u-s-job-creation-by-president-political-party/



More net jobs were created in August 2012 alone than were created January 2001-January 2009. Period.

Well, Obama hasn't had 8 years, has he?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 08, 2012, 09:47:35 PM
Well, because in 2004, the numbers were improving and unemployment was rather dramatically lower.  

Except that it wasn't.

Except that it was.  Unemployment was lower.  http://www.miseryindex.us/indexbymonth.aspx?type=UR 

Job creation actually broke even by the Fall of 2004.  http://www.truthfulpolitics.com/http:/truthfulpolitics.com/comments/u-s-job-creation-by-president-political-party/



More net jobs were created in August 2012 alone than were created January 2001-January 2009. Period.

Well, Obama hasn't had 8 years, has he?

Um, exactly. More net jobs were created in 1 month than in 8 years, so er...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 08, 2012, 11:48:23 PM
Well, because in 2004, the numbers were improving and unemployment was rather dramatically lower.  

Except that it wasn't.

Except that it was.  Unemployment was lower.  http://www.miseryindex.us/indexbymonth.aspx?type=UR 

Job creation actually broke even by the Fall of 2004.  http://www.truthfulpolitics.com/http:/truthfulpolitics.com/comments/u-s-job-creation-by-president-political-party/



More net jobs were created in August 2012 alone than were created January 2001-January 2009. Period.

Well, Obama hasn't had 8 years, has he?

Um, exactly. More net jobs were created in 1 month than in 8 years, so er...

So we have still have a net job loss after 3 1/2 years of Obamanomics.

Obama took office in 1/2009, we had been in recession for a year, and the US had 142,187,000 people employed.

Today, we have 142, 101,000.  So, if Obama created any jobs, he must have lost a number equal to those, plus an additional 86,000.

Interestingly, Bush started his 8 year presidency with, 137,778,000 employed people.  He ended it with 142,187,000.  If he had any job loss, he must have created as many as he lost, plus 4,409,000.

http://www.dlt.ri.gov/lmi/laus/us/usadj.htm


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 09, 2012, 02:28:25 AM
oh neat, Nate Silver did the math:

()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2012, 04:03:50 AM
WTF is RAND ?

Is Rand Paul now having his own tracking poll ?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: memphis on September 09, 2012, 08:01:55 AM
oh neat, Nate Silver did the math:

()

Viva la deluge!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2012, 08:33:30 AM
Rasmussen (Sunday):

49-45 Obama (+3, +1)

52-47 Approve (+3, -3)

A 4-point Rasmussen lead is about equivalent to a 10-point lead in other polls ... ;)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 09, 2012, 08:37:27 AM
Will Obama be at 50% tomorrow?

And when will the other pollsters like CNN and PPP come out with their numbers?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2012, 08:41:23 AM
So, this represents already a 7-point bounce @ Rasmussen from -3 to +4 in the last 5 or so days.

It seems the people who predicted a 5-10% Obama bounce here were correct.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2012, 08:51:29 AM
More from the Rasmussen release:

Quote
Obama’s convention bounce is evident both in the head-to-head numbers with Romney and in his Job Approval ratings.

The president has made significant gains among voters aged 40-64.

Currently, 52% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance.

That’s his highest approval rating in more than a year-and-a-half, since January 2011.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on September 09, 2012, 09:30:48 AM
So what's going on? You can't tell me people just watched both conventions, found the R's more underwhelming, and therefore switched their support.
Dem base taking the Convention as its cue to tune in / decide they will, in fact, go and vote is my guess... in which case the Presidential Election is over and the House and Senate Elections have just seriously begun. Alas, we won't know for quite a while and I can end up looking stupid.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 09, 2012, 09:45:33 AM
I think you may be right, Lewis. That is what the purpose of the convention was.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 09, 2012, 10:27:29 AM
With leaners, Obama's lead is 3 points today on Rasmussen, but he hits the crucial 50% mark.

Obama: 50%
Romney: 47%

In the swing state poll, Obama takes the lead, 45-46%. But with leaners, it's a tie.
Obama: 47%
Romney: 47%

I think it will be very interesting to see where this race stands about 7 days from now. That will give Reuters, Ras, and Gallup time to work the DNC bounce out of their rolling averages, and we'll know whether or not Obama has created a lasting lead, or whether or not we're back to where we were pre-conventions.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 後援会 on September 09, 2012, 10:39:05 AM
An eight to ten point bounce is absolutely astounding. For one, I don't think an incumbent president has ever managed that. Ever. Which is why I think almost none of us predicted it, except the hackiest of hacks.

That being said, it is what the polls seem to be showing. A nine-point bounce. Something that literally everything we know about elections tells us shouldn't happen.

The idea that unmotivated Dems simply became motivated can't be true. After all, Gallup (RV) showed a similar bounce. And from the brief crosstabs they've released, they've depicted Obama mostly maxing out his Democratic support.

So this really doesn't make sense. At the same time, I don't think I can deny what the polls are saying. So regardless of whether Obama cruises to victory or loses narrowly, this election has already been freaky as hell. I am however, starting to suspect there is something seriously wrong with America. If this is a structural/demographic issue - that portends very poorly for the nation's future.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 09, 2012, 10:55:55 AM
Right...because voting for the guy who promises to cut taxes on the rich, raise military spending and balance the budget is the rational thing to do?

I think this could be a combination of the Dem base starting to get interested as well as swing voters being influenced by Clinton's speech. So we have to see whether the numbers really improve after Clinton's speech or do they start declining. I think Obama missed a trick by not reaching out to swing voters a bit more in his speech. Swing voters basically support Democratic policies like raising taxes on the rich and following a balanced approach to debt reduction.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 09, 2012, 11:02:19 AM
I think it will be ephemeral.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 09, 2012, 11:04:23 AM

Like most bounces are, but if Obama gets out of the conventions with a 2-3 point lead, that is a much stronger position than he was in before the conventions. This is due to the lack of big events remaining that can change the race. I know the debates are there, but the conventions were a good opportunity for Romney to at least get even with Obama.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 後援会 on September 09, 2012, 11:10:27 AM
There's a scenario people aren't considering. What if Romney generally wins independent and swing voters by a hefty margin and still loses the election, a scenario quite possible if Democratic turnout is reasonably high. If so, such an election might portend a structural Democratic majority. Which regardless of your personal political views, tend to produce governance that is not very good - as we can see from VRA districts.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 09, 2012, 11:15:35 AM
That is your personal political view, koenkai. Though maybe you have a point about districts that are way too partisan in one direction. Yes, corruption and igonorance does fester in these situations, but America would never become that Democratic. If there is corruption they would be voted out. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if there was some sort of a Republican wave in California soon....but the CA GOP might be too incompetent.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on September 09, 2012, 11:20:40 AM
A big part of the Republican coalition of 2010 and 2008 was Democratic in the 1990s and liable to snap back to the Dems over their main issue: Medicare. I suspect that is what we may be seeing with Clinton's speech.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 09, 2012, 11:25:38 AM
A big part of the Republican coalition of 2010 and 2008 was Democratic in the 1990s and liable to snap back to the Dems over their main issue: Medicare. I suspect that is what we may be seeing with Clinton's speech.

By 2008, the Republicans really didn't even have a coalition. All they had by then was 5 people screaming in front of the courthouse and calling up talk radio because things didn't go their way 100% of the time. Then in 2009 they added the tricorne hats.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 後援会 on September 09, 2012, 11:32:16 AM
If there is corruption they would be voted out. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if there was some sort of a Republican wave in California soon....but the CA GOP might be too incompetent.

That is tremendously unlikely. If there was any time for a Republican wave, it was 2010, where Democrats enhanced their legislative majorities and won every single statewide office. The CA GOP is actually a lot more effective than people give it credit for. They're actually not bad at recruitment, fundraising, and messaging. They're simply perhaps one of the most challenging position for almost any major political party in the West. Definitely giving Welsh Tories and Alberta Grits a run for their money.

California today is perhaps the best example of a structural Democratic majority. Even an extremely moderate, popular Republican (Cooley) could not defeat a relatively unpopular, far-left (more leftist than most of her party members) Democrat in a Republican landslide year for a not-so-politicized office (AG).

I don't think it's also a universal partisan trait. For example, Alberta is not a poorly run state at all. Japan, 1949-1993 wasn't fantastic, but it was decent enough. On the other hand, modern California...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 09, 2012, 11:37:14 AM

The hilarious turn this election'd take if Obama started getting 10+ leads consistently.

The GOP's blame game would have begun by October.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 09, 2012, 12:04:14 PM
Gallup

Obama: 49% (nc)
Romney: 44 % (-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 09, 2012, 12:15:09 PM
So this really doesn't make sense. At the same time, I don't think I can deny what the polls are saying. So regardless of whether Obama cruises to victory or loses narrowly, this election has already been freaky as hell. I am however, starting to suspect there is something seriously wrong with America. If this is a structural/demographic issue - that portends very poorly for the nation's future.

The simple fact is that the Republican Party is going to have moderate massively if they want to be competitive in national elections again. This election is basically their last chance to run on such a far-right agenda and still be able to eke out a victory by driving up their numbers with old white voters. By 2016 and 2020 especially they'll need to move considerably to the left if they want to win. There just aren't enough conservative, old, white voters anymore.

And this is a good thing, because Republican economic policies would return us the 19th century in the long-term and start another recession in the short term. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 09, 2012, 12:19:43 PM
So, Romney drops a point today on Gallup, and Obama leads by 5 points, 49-44%. But Obama's approval rating drops two points, while his disapproval increases by 2 points, a net 4 point turn around from yesterday (50/44% vs. 52/42%), which is pretty large for a one day change.

Yesterday (saturday) was the first full day of polling including the poor economic news of Friday (which did play poorly on the news and in print, from what I could tell). Maybe that explains Obama's job rating drop.

Obama job rating today
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 44%

Obama job rating yesterday
Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 42%

Jobs report may blunt the Obama bounce. And remember, this is with REGISTERED voters, which seems silly after both conventions. So much for all of you envisioning 10 point Obama leads.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on September 09, 2012, 12:30:51 PM
Too bad PPP doesn't do national tracking. We could use some clarity, and I doubt they'd still be polling RV.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2012, 12:32:42 PM
Too bad PPP doesn't do national tracking. We could use some clarity, and I doubt they'd still be polling RV.

They are in the field for their weekly Kos poll right now and it shows a 2008-like margin.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pa2011 on September 09, 2012, 12:50:37 PM
PPP tweeted it is releasing and Ohio poll tonight,  conducted Fri. Sat and today,  that will likely show Obama currently leads by a bigger margin in the Buckeye State than he won it by in 2008. Think he won Ohio by  5 points. Not so sure why this will be shocking, however. In the Politico article out today about Obama being in the drivers seat, anonoymous GOP strategists are quoted as saying even GOP tracking polls have  consistently shown Obama with a high single digit lead in Ohio.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 09, 2012, 01:23:15 PM
If there is corruption they would be voted out. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if there was some sort of a Republican wave in California soon....but the CA GOP might be too incompetent.

That is tremendously unlikely. If there was any time for a Republican wave, it was 2010, where Democrats enhanced their legislative majorities and won every single statewide office. The CA GOP is actually a lot more effective than people give it credit for. They're actually not bad at recruitment, fundraising, and messaging. They're simply perhaps one of the most challenging position for almost any major political party in the West. Definitely giving Welsh Tories and Alberta Grits a run for their money.

California today is perhaps the best example of a structural Democratic majority. Even an extremely moderate, popular Republican (Cooley) could not defeat a relatively unpopular, far-left (more leftist than most of her party members) Democrat in a Republican landslide year for a not-so-politicized office (AG).

I don't think it's also a universal partisan trait. For example, Alberta is not a poorly run state at all. Japan, 1949-1993 wasn't fantastic, but it was decent enough. On the other hand, modern California...

Schwarzenegger was a Republican so obviously there wouldn't be a GOP wave in California in 2010. And if you are talking about federal races, I don't think there is any chance of California going Republican in the near future. Tea party populism just doesn't work in the state.

I disagree the Republicans have good candidates here in California. Most Republicans just run as your standard conservative you would see elsewhere. One of the problems of course is that the Republicans in California tend to very conservative but independents have a left lean. Still, look at the votes on the measures reforming pensions in San Diego and San Jose. Don't tell me the GOP has no opportunity in California. But it's not going to be with a generic conservative, I can assure you of that.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 09, 2012, 01:46:24 PM
Gonna go out on a limb here, but I'm thinking today may be Obama's peak on Gallup. Something about that sharp job approval reversal, and yesterday being first full day of surveys after the awful August jobs report, makes me think Obama may peak at 49% (w/ RVs, keep in mind). If he doesn't peak today, I think he's very close to it. We'll see tomorrow.

And remember, McCain/Palin led Obama-Biden 54-44% w/ likely voters in a USAToday/Gallup poll released after the RNC. And Dukakis led Bush by 17 points following his.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 09, 2012, 02:04:55 PM
For those looking for the Reuters update, follow @steveholland1 on twitter. He's a Reuters reporter who often tweets the results before they get it into an article and update their site (though his feed looks a bit dead this weekend).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 09, 2012, 02:41:52 PM
Reuters/Ipsos (Sunday):

47-43 Obama (nc, nc)

Sunday's findings wrap up a series of daily rolling polls aimed at gauging sentiment during the two weeks of party conventions. For the survey, a sample of registered voters was interviewed online from Sept. 5-9.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 09, 2012, 02:45:23 PM
Where those 10 point leads, guys? Bounce may have stalled on Reuters, and Gallup shows ominous signs with the 4 point drop in Obama's net job approval.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on September 09, 2012, 02:48:55 PM
Where those 10 point leads, guys? Bounce may have stalled on Reuters, and Gallup shows ominous signs with the 4 point drop in Obama's net job approval.
There is no 10 point bounce. But there was a large one. Much better than the Governor's.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 09, 2012, 02:50:09 PM
So their tracking poll is over? That sucks.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 09, 2012, 02:53:34 PM
That's ridiculous. Only 2 of the 4 nights of the survey were conducted after Obama's speech, and only one after the August jobs report. That would be stupid to stop now. If they're going to stop, why not wait til Tuesday?

Edited to note that apparently Reuter's polls on the same day they release results, so 3 of the four days of the survey were conducted after Obama's speech, and 2 after the August jobs report.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on September 09, 2012, 02:55:19 PM
Gallup also measures economic confidence and it's at it's highest since late May, so why did his approval take such a hit?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 09, 2012, 02:59:24 PM
Gallup also measures economic confidence and it's at it's highest since late May, so why did his approval take such a hit?

It may have something to do with the difference between polling on weekends vs. polling on weekdays. Or it could be the jobs report. If Obama continues to gain tomorrow and the approval recovers or stabilizes, I'd go with the former.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 09, 2012, 03:15:00 PM
I think the bounce may have peaked at Clinton's speech. I don't think Obama's speech helped, except maybe it increased the likelihood of some disillusioned Democrats turning up to vote.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 09, 2012, 03:29:41 PM
Gonna go out on a limb here, but I'm thinking today may be Obama's peak on Gallup. Something about that sharp job approval reversal, and yesterday being first full day of surveys after the awful August jobs report, makes me think Obama may peak at 49% (w/ RVs, keep in mind). If he doesn't peak today, I think he's very close to it. We'll see tomorrow.

And remember, McCain/Palin led Obama-Biden 54-44% w/ likely voters in a USAToday/Gallup poll released after the RNC. And Dukakis led Bush by 17 points following his.

I'd give it another day on the tracking polls. 

There was a bounce on Gallup's tracker for Romney, which was ephemeral.  This one is probably ephemeral too.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 09, 2012, 03:41:52 PM
Gonna go out on a limb here, but I'm thinking today may be Obama's peak on Gallup. Something about that sharp job approval reversal, and yesterday being first full day of surveys after the awful August jobs report, makes me think Obama may peak at 49% (w/ RVs, keep in mind). If he doesn't peak today, I think he's very close to it. We'll see tomorrow.

And remember, McCain/Palin led Obama-Biden 54-44% w/ likely voters in a USAToday/Gallup poll released after the RNC. And Dukakis led Bush by 17 points following his.

I'd give it another day on the tracking polls. 

There was a bounce on Gallup's tracker for Romney, which was ephemeral.  This one is probably ephemeral too.

Eh.  Remember, Ras/Gallup are the two most R-favorable polls on the books this season.  They  basically give a lower bound for Obama.  We need to wait for the media polls to fully judge the bounce.  On the left side of the spectrum, PPP apparently has better than 2008 numbers for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if Pew had something like Obama 56%/Romney 40% if they poll this week...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on September 09, 2012, 03:45:40 PM
Gonna go out on a limb here, but I'm thinking today may be Obama's peak on Gallup. Something about that sharp job approval reversal, and yesterday being first full day of surveys after the awful August jobs report, makes me think Obama may peak at 49% (w/ RVs, keep in mind). If he doesn't peak today, I think he's very close to it. We'll see tomorrow.

And remember, McCain/Palin led Obama-Biden 54-44% w/ likely voters in a USAToday/Gallup poll released after the RNC. And Dukakis led Bush by 17 points following his.

I'd give it another day on the tracking polls. 

There was a bounce on Gallup's tracker for Romney, which was ephemeral.  This one is probably ephemeral too.

Eh.  Remember, Ras/Gallup are the two most R-favorable polls on the books this season.  They  basically give a lower bound for Obama.  We need to wait for the media polls to fully judge the bounce.  On the left side of the spectrum, PPP apparently has better than 2008 numbers for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if Pew had something like Obama 56%/Romney 40% if they poll this week...
Is Pew putting out a poll this week? I wish there was a schedule for the results of polls being released. It'd be so much easier.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 09, 2012, 03:58:31 PM

Eh.  Remember, Ras/Gallup are the two most R-favorable polls on the books this season.  They  basically give a lower bound for Obama.  We need to wait for the media polls to fully judge the bounce.  On the left side of the spectrum, PPP apparently has better than 2008 numbers for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if Pew had something like Obama 56%/Romney 40% if they poll this week...

Ah, PPP doesn't do a tracking poll.  :)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 09, 2012, 04:03:55 PM
Gonna go out on a limb here, but I'm thinking today may be Obama's peak on Gallup. Something about that sharp job approval reversal, and yesterday being first full day of surveys after the awful August jobs report, makes me think Obama may peak at 49% (w/ RVs, keep in mind). If he doesn't peak today, I think he's very close to it. We'll see tomorrow.

And remember, McCain/Palin led Obama-Biden 54-44% w/ likely voters in a USAToday/Gallup poll released after the RNC. And Dukakis led Bush by 17 points following his.

I'd give it another day on the tracking polls.  

There was a bounce on Gallup's tracker for Romney, which was ephemeral.  This one is probably ephemeral too.

Eh.  Remember, Ras/Gallup are the two most R-favorable polls on the books this season.

Though neither is as Republican leaning as PPP is Dem, as you can see, per Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 09, 2012, 04:12:37 PM

Eh.  Remember, Ras/Gallup are the two most R-favorable polls on the books this season.  They  basically give a lower bound for Obama.  We need to wait for the media polls to fully judge the bounce.  On the left side of the spectrum, PPP apparently has better than 2008 numbers for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if Pew had something like Obama 56%/Romney 40% if they poll this week...

Ah, PPP doesn't do a tracking poll.  :)

They do a weekly tracking poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 09, 2012, 04:39:09 PM
Obama's lead in the Rasmussen swing-state poll is still only 1 point, 46-45%, same as yesterday. And with leaners, it's tied 47-47%.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 10, 2012, 08:43:24 AM
Monday, September 10 update:

Obama is up one more point on Rasmussen, though his job approval rating remains the same from yesterday (52/47%).

Rasmussen: Obama +5
Obama: 50% (+1)
Romney: 45% (no change)

Rasmussen w/ Leaners: Obama +4
Obama: 50% (no change)
Romney: 46% (-1)

Interestingly, the swing-state poll hasn't budged in 3 days, and still shows a tie with leaners. That may have something to do with the fact that those states are being bombarded w/ television ads.

Rasmussen swing state poll: Romney +1
Obama: 46% (no change)
Romey: 45% (no change)

Rasmussen swing-state w/ leaners: TIE
Obama: 47% (no change)
Romney: 47% (no change)

Obama appears to have maxed out on Gallup. His job approval rating also saw no change from yesterday (50-44%).

Gallup: Obama +5 w/ RVs
Obama: 49% (no change)
Romney: 44% (no change)

After stalling for 2 straight days at 47-43%, Obama gains another point on Romney with likely voters, with 4/4 days of this poll occurring after Obama's speech. So apparently, Ipsos isn't stopping yet (and hopefully they won't at all).

Ipsos (unless they're done tracking): Obama +5
Obama: 48% (+1)
Romney: 43% (no change)

So it appears this race has settled into roughly a 5 point Obama advantage. Which mean it's not over, but reason to be anxious.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 10, 2012, 09:14:04 AM
Obama +5 in Rasmussen must be some sort of record.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 10, 2012, 10:15:34 AM
Obama +5 in Rasmussen must be some sort of record.

There was a time in February (during the heart of the Republican primary), where Obama consistently led Romney by 5-8 points, and even led by as much as 50-40% (on Feb. 10). The last time Obama led Romney by more than 5 points (excluding leaners), was March 17th, when Obama led 49-43%. So its been quite a while since Obama has seen this level of support on Ras. But he has been in a better position than he is right now.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_presidential_election_matchups2


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pa2011 on September 10, 2012, 12:05:24 PM
Appears the Gallup Tracking Poll has stabilized.  Obama 49 Romney 44, the same 5-point margin as yesterday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 後援会 on September 10, 2012, 02:09:13 PM
Appears the Gallup Tracking Poll has stabilized.  Obama 49 Romney 44, the same 5-point margin as yesterday.

Quote
ELECTION 2012 TRACKING
Sep 3-9, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

I don't think it's updated yet...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 10, 2012, 02:33:02 PM
Obama should be down (2 p at least) tomorrow in the ras poll. If not, Romney in trouble...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 10, 2012, 05:21:31 PM
Reuters is out...here is daily summary for Monday:

Rasmussen (LV): Obama +5  
Obama     50 (+1)
Romney     45 (-)

Gallup (RV): Obama +5
Obama     49 (-)
Romney     44 (-)

Reuters/Ipsos (LV): Obama +5
Obama     48 (+1)
Romney     43 (-)

1 week ago

Rasmussen (LV): Romney +2
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     47 (-1)

Gallup (RV): Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46

Reuters/Ipsos (LV): Romney +1 [Tuesday]
Obama  45
Romney 46


Avg 1 week change Obama +5.66

My thoughts:
Suspect today may be the peak of Obama's DNC bounce for the trackers


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on September 10, 2012, 06:49:45 PM
Rand Tracker

Obama 48.48%
Romney 45.07%


https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election

Internet poll with an interesting methodology.  Hard to take any poll that goes out to 100th's of a percent but FWIW Nate Silver does include them in his model.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 10, 2012, 10:39:59 PM
Nate apparently likes their methodology. It's definitely different but I can't say if it's correct.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on September 11, 2012, 02:57:48 AM
Nate apparently likes their methodology. It's definitely different but I can't say if it's correct.

One definite advantage to it is that since they always poll the same people, it's probably far more accurate that most polls are in keeping track of the relative changes in the electorate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 11, 2012, 08:33:05 AM
Ras tracker: 48 45


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 11, 2012, 09:01:28 AM
Rasmussen Tracker w/ leaners today:
Obama: 49% (-1)
Romney: 47% (+1)

Appears yesterday was the last day of the bounce on Rasmussen. We'll see if the same applies to Gallup and Reuters.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 11, 2012, 09:55:16 AM
Obamas approval ratings are still the same.
And he leads Romney in the swing states by 2 now.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pa2011 on September 11, 2012, 12:04:22 PM
Obama moves up in Gallup Tracking Poll by 1 point.  Now leads 50 to 44, a one point gain over yesterday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 11, 2012, 12:11:51 PM
His approval/disapproval also got slightly better, 50 (nc) to 43 (-1).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on September 11, 2012, 12:38:51 PM
Gallup

Obama 50% (+1)
Romney 44% (nc)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on September 11, 2012, 12:59:55 PM
So, considering this, the PPP poll looks pretty accurate, and vice versa.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 11, 2012, 01:10:57 PM
This looks pretty much like 2008, just without the financial crash. So, basically 2004, just with Obama as Bush.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 11, 2012, 01:14:52 PM
It's way too early to say that. If the situation is like this on October 11, than it will be different.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on September 11, 2012, 04:05:07 PM
And than y'all can be more then happy.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: mondale84 on September 11, 2012, 04:06:32 PM
It's way too early to say that. If the situation is like this on October 11, than it will be different.

Obama will probably have a 15-point lead by then, so yes it's too early to tell how big Obama's mandate will be.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 11, 2012, 05:01:32 PM
Reuters Update for Tuesday, September 11th

Obama drops 2 points.

Obama: 46% (-2)
Romney: 43% (no change)

So both Rasmussen and Reuters show Obama falling today, while Gallup (of registered voters) finds Obama continuing today.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 12, 2012, 12:43:52 AM
Reuters Update for Tuesday, September 11th

Obama drops 2 points.

Obama: 46% (-2)
Romney: 43% (no change)

So both Rasmussen and Reuters show Obama falling today, while Gallup (of registered voters) finds Obama continuing today.

Gallup is on 7-days...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 12, 2012, 02:02:12 AM
I kind of hope it stays close. I want an interesting election night.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 12, 2012, 08:26:00 AM
Ras:

Obama 46
Romney 45


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: AmericanNation on September 12, 2012, 08:43:54 AM
...This looks like 1980, with Romney as Reagan.  Given the embassy news and how it perfectly highlights BOs failed foreign policy (which was flying under the radar until now) Romney will start pulling ahead shortly and stay there.     


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on September 12, 2012, 09:08:04 AM
...This looks like 1980, with Romney as Reagan.  Given the embassy news and how it perfectly highlights BOs failed foreign policy (which was flying under the radar until now) Romney will start pulling ahead shortly and stay there.     

lol.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 12, 2012, 09:10:24 AM
...This looks like 1980, with Romney as Reagan.  Given the embassy news and how it perfectly highlights BOs failed foreign policy (which was flying under the radar until now) Romney will start pulling ahead shortly and stay there.     

lol.

You were not around in 1980, were you? 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 12, 2012, 09:13:48 AM
That doesn't make it true, J.J. It is still nonsense.

And Romney's reaction to this incident is much worse. Playing politics with the attacks and then being wrong about it as well.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 12, 2012, 09:25:29 AM
Romney actually retakes the LEAD today on Rasmussen with leaners included.

Romney - 48% (+1)
Obama - 47% (-2)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Iosif on September 12, 2012, 09:48:31 AM
Romney actually retakes the LEAD today on Rasmussen with leaners included.

Romney - 48% (+1)
Obama - 47% (-2)

Is this with REGISTERED or LIKELY voters?!???!??!??!!???!?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 12, 2012, 09:55:46 AM
It's with Republican voters. Rasmussen he.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 12, 2012, 09:57:40 AM
That doesn't make it true, J.J. It is still nonsense.

And Romney's reaction to this incident is much worse. Playing politics with the attacks and then being wrong about it as well.

No, Romney's remarks related to the embassy attack in Egypt and that were repudiated by Obama.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 12, 2012, 10:00:58 AM
No, he talked about an apology, which it wasn't, and pinned it on Obama.

He should have kept his mouth shut and waited a couple of days. Now, it looks like he is dancing on the bodies of the dead diplomats.

He made it political before he knew all the facts. That is just stupid.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 12, 2012, 10:05:49 AM
No, he talked about an apology, which it wasn't, and pinned it on Obama.

He should have kept his mouth shut and waited a couple of days. No, it looks like he is dancing on the bodies of the dead diplomats.

The response, from the US Embassy in Egypt, was to condemn the movie that started the entire thing.  Romney attacked that and that is what the White House initially responded to (I don't they agreed with the Embassy's comment either). 

Today's comments were on the murder of Ambassador Stevens.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 12, 2012, 10:13:43 AM
But the Embassy gave out the statement, before they were stormed. It was clearly designed to calm the people down who were outside. Who can blame them?
And then, the statement is not an apology. Just a condemnation of a movie.
But Romney called it an apology and made it appear like this was Obama's take on the situation.


Romney jumped the gun. He was talking too soon. You can expect from a man who wants to be president to wait until he has the entire story.

Like I said, now he looks very insensitive. He doesn't seem to care about the casualties but only about the politics.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 12, 2012, 10:17:06 AM
All Romney does or say is designed to get himself elected. The pattern has been clear since 1994.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Franzl on September 12, 2012, 11:07:55 AM
Are the American voters really smart enough to realize how calculated Romney's fake outrage is....or will they just think: Americans killed --> Obama is in charge --> Obama's at fault?

I'd like to think Americans will see through it...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 12, 2012, 11:16:51 AM
Are the American voters really smart enough to realize how calculated Romney's fake outrage is....or will they just think: Americans killed --> Obama is in charge --> Obama's at fault?

I'd like to think Americans will see through it...

Considering The Media let Bush get reelected after he allowed 9/11 to occur.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 12, 2012, 11:18:37 AM
The media and even Republican foreign policy folks are savaging Mitt Romney for his disgusting comments. J.J. is once again being a hack.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on September 12, 2012, 11:23:02 AM
The media and even Republican foreign policy folks are savaging Mitt Romney for his disgusting comments. J.J. is once again being a hack.

J.J., is CNN covering Romney's comments negatively?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on September 12, 2012, 11:27:17 AM
Are the American voters really smart enough to realize how calculated Romney's fake outrage is....or will they just think: Americans killed --> Obama is in charge --> Obama's at fault?

I'd like to think Americans will see through it...

Us "dumb" Americans can see through this phony mannequin.........


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 12, 2012, 11:27:56 AM
J.J., is CNN covering Romney's comments negatively?

I get a sick feeling every time I think of how CNN might be covering this, considering how pro-Romney they are.

If the mainstream media closed up shop today, Romney would lose in an incredible landslide. That shows just how biased The Media is in Romney's favor.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pa2011 on September 12, 2012, 12:05:14 PM
Obama bumps up 1 in Gallup Tracking poll, now leads 51 to 43, a 7 point advantage. Obama's approval rating also moves up 1, to 51.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 12, 2012, 12:07:38 PM
Obama bumps up 1 in Gallup Tracking poll, now leads 51 to 43, a 7 point advantage. Obama's approval rating also moves up 1, to 51.

Actually, Romney falls 1 point, Obama stays the same.

Obama: 50% (no change)
Romney: 43% (-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 12, 2012, 12:09:12 PM
Obama bumps up 1 in Gallup Tracking poll, now leads 51 to 43, a 7 point advantage. Obama's approval rating also moves up 1, to 51.

Actually that's 8 points - a greater margin than he won by in 2008.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 12, 2012, 12:09:26 PM
Obama bumps up 1 in Gallup Tracking poll, now leads 51 to 43, a 7 point advantage. Obama's approval rating also moves up 1, to 51.

You are looking at his approval ratings.

MIA is right.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pa2011 on September 12, 2012, 12:10:01 PM
Correct: My apology for misreading. Regardless, pretty big Obama advantage in a poll that hasn't moved much at all since it started. Not sure what to make of his new lead.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 12, 2012, 12:11:06 PM
The convention bounce continues!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 12, 2012, 12:13:03 PM
I'm pretty sure his continued gains have something to do with Gallup using a 7 day rolling average ( in other words, their are still surveys in the rolling average from last Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday (probably some of the stronger days of polling for Obama).

Meanwhile, Ipsos/Reuters tracker does not have any days in their sample pre-Saturday (and Obama has fallen to 46-43%). Same for Rasmussen, where Obama has fallen to 46-45%.


That depends on the poll you're looking at. 2/3 daily trackers show it's not continuing. The 7 day tracker of RVs is the only one showing it continuing (which makes sense).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 12, 2012, 12:14:55 PM
Romney giving that horrible press conference about the attack in Libya where he smirked and grinned the whole time and blamed Obama for the attack sure isn't going to help the GOP camp.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 12, 2012, 12:15:02 PM
The approval rating poll is over three days, I believe. The presidential poll is over seven days.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 12, 2012, 12:19:30 PM
I think that O will be down in the thursday gallup poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 12, 2012, 12:20:03 PM
That depends on the poll you're looking at. 2/3 daily trackers show it's not continuing. The 7 day tracker of RVs is the only one showing it continuing (which makes sense).

Rasmussen is not the best pollster. His numbers are twisted in such a way that he can go on Fox and keep the Republicans hope up.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 12, 2012, 12:22:18 PM
The approval rating poll is over three days, I believe.

but on adults


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 12, 2012, 12:22:56 PM
That depends on the poll you're looking at. 2/3 daily trackers show it's not continuing. The 7 day tracker of RVs is the only one showing it continuing (which makes sense).

Rasmussen is not the best pollster. His numbers are twisted in such a way that he can go on Fox and keep the Republicans hope up.

lol no


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 12, 2012, 12:23:41 PM
Sadly, yes.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pa2011 on September 12, 2012, 12:28:26 PM
Probably with Rasmussen is it flips and switches and seems to move too fast. Hard to read too much in his results on any one day since it moves so much when very, very few believe the electorate is changing its mind that quickly with this race, which has overall been remarkably stable.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 12, 2012, 04:02:57 PM
Romney is getting rocked pretty much everywhere over his bizarre comments.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 12, 2012, 04:15:20 PM
Reuters Ipsos LV: Obama +3

Obama:   48 (+2)
Romney:  45 (+2)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/us/2012-election/



EDIT: I looked closer and the poll was not from the daily tracker which is an online poll. This was a standard phone poll


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on September 13, 2012, 08:27:11 AM
Ras tracker:

Romney 47
Obama 46


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 13, 2012, 08:42:36 AM

Including Leaners, Romney takes a 2 point lead on Rasmussen:
Romney: 49%
Obama: 47%.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 13, 2012, 08:47:26 AM
On Rasmussen.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 13, 2012, 09:14:51 AM

Woops. Thanks. Corrected.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 13, 2012, 09:53:18 AM
Well, yeah, for Romney not to be leading on Rasmussen's ridiculous sample would be a disaster for him. Now that Scotty R. has "proved" that he's still a legitimate polling firm by including Obama's convention bump, he can go back to shilling for Mitt and start pushing a "Obama's bounce is completely gone" narrative.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2012, 11:16:20 AM
Well, yeah, for Romney not to be leading on Rasmussen's ridiculous sample would be a disaster for him. Now that Scotty R. has "proved" that he's still a legitimate polling firm by including Obama's convention bump, he can go back to shilling for Mitt and start pushing a "Obama's bounce is completely gone" narrative.

Well, it is not "completely gone." and it probably isn't a good idea to cite "J.J.'s First Rule of Elections" in your sig while saying it. :)

The corollary to that rule is:  Never trust just one poll.  Trust several and remember that the electorate changes its mind quickly.  So, you are still good.  :)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: AmericanNation on September 13, 2012, 11:19:46 AM
Romney is getting rocked pretty much everywhere over his bizarre comments.
If by "everywhere" you mean the press corps.  Nothing bizarre about the comments so none of the spin will stick.  They might have successfully erased the golden moment where Mitt looked super presidential at a critical moment 12 hours before the president did anything.  Hard to say on that.      


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 13, 2012, 12:07:48 PM
Gallup today
Obama: 50% (no change)
Romney: 44% (+1)

Approval down to 49/42, after being 51/42% yesterday.

Well, yeah, for Romney not to be leading on Rasmussen's ridiculous sample would be a disaster for him. Now that Scotty R. has "proved" that he's still a legitimate polling firm by including Obama's convention bump, he can go back to shilling for Mitt and start pushing a "Obama's bounce is completely gone" narrative.

You can't really deny that his bounce is "gone", or fading, on every tracking poll (Reuters, Ras, Gallup). And I love reminding people that Rasmussen's house effect isn't as big as PPPs this year, per Nate Silver. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: mondale84 on September 13, 2012, 01:43:22 PM
Romney is getting rocked pretty much everywhere over his bizarre comments.
If by "everywhere" you mean the press corps.  Nothing bizarre about the comments so none of the spin will stick.  They might have successfully erased the golden moment where Mitt looked super presidential at a critical moment 12 hours before the president did anything.  Hard to say on that.      

::)

What are you ON? Seriously, you need to just leave or shut up.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on September 13, 2012, 02:23:47 PM
Mondale, you are about this close to making me explode. Yes, we know there are Republican hacks on the Atlas forum. I'd wonder, though, what you consider yourself to be. Or if you ever even stop to think, just a little, before you post.

Although I suppose it is fitting that you act like the official authority on hacks and trolls. You're certainly the most qualified.


Yes, the DNC bump is fading.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 13, 2012, 02:27:22 PM

But the "Romney being stupid" bump is just beginning. And that won't be temporary.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on September 13, 2012, 02:32:12 PM
We'll see. The GOP base might surprise you.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 13, 2012, 02:35:44 PM
We'll see. The GOP base might surprise you.

You make it sound like they're a jack-in-the-box that's just gonna leap out when you turn the crank. It doesn't work that way in 2012.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on September 13, 2012, 02:55:35 PM
No, I just meant to suggest that for every person Romney's comments turn off, there's a Tea Partier who's liking what he's hearing (rightly or wrongly). The situation will probably move voters, but I think it'll end up being a wash.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 13, 2012, 03:33:23 PM
The Tea Partiers are already enthusiastic. Smiling about dead ambassadors isn't going to gin them up any more.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2012, 05:49:18 PM
The Tea Partiers are already enthusiastic. Smiling about dead ambassadors isn't going to gin them up any more.

Lief, who was president the last time this happened?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 13, 2012, 06:06:30 PM
Who was in office the last time a candidate running for president grinned while he used the bodies of dead Americans to attack the incumbent president? Don't remember.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on September 13, 2012, 06:08:47 PM
Reuters

Obama-48
Romney-41


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ty440 on September 13, 2012, 06:14:50 PM


Reggie Jackson was known as Mr. October
And now i think Obama shall be bestowed the title of Mr. September.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: mondale84 on September 13, 2012, 06:39:38 PM

Obamamentum continues!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 13, 2012, 07:04:59 PM
Strangely both today's and Monday's Ipsos/Reuters tracking poll shows Obama with a bigger lead in LV. The same was true with the Fox poll. Most others (especially the ABC/WaPo) still show the traditional GOP LV advantage but it could be the enthusiasm gap has narrowed


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on September 13, 2012, 07:22:02 PM

Is this the tracker?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 13, 2012, 09:05:27 PM
Who was in office the last time a candidate running for president grinned while he used the bodies of dead Americans to attack the incumbent president? Don't remember.

I think it was the Republican in 1980.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: nhmagic on September 13, 2012, 09:42:24 PM
What the heck?  Why aren't people looking at the sample makeup in these polls and not seeing the inherent bias?  +11D, +9D, +6D, I know its typical of a supporter to go for their guy, but come on, this is pretty ridiculous.  I mean, even looking at the gender makeup in some of these polls can tell you how rigged they are.  +9 female turnout in Ohio, etc.

You guys aren't even getting close to that party makeup in November.  Some of these makeups are larger than his 2008 win and this is not the general mood of the electorate.  We had 100,000+ more republicans turn out for a primary that was competitive on both sides in New Hampshire statewide.  In my city, Dover, a largely democratic city, turnout was around 49% R, 51% D across all of the wards.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 14, 2012, 12:03:45 AM
Here is the release:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88B0IG20120913

Obama+6 among RV, but +7 among LV.

This has been a trend recently. Obama ahead by more among LV than among RV. Sign that Democrats are more likely to turn out than Republicans ?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 14, 2012, 01:26:31 AM
Is it really that hard to believe that Democratic enthusiasm is much higher than Republican enthusiasm at this point? Romney was never exciting but now he's just getting embarrassing.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 14, 2012, 08:55:33 AM
Rasmussen Poll today , w/ leaners

Obama: 47% (no change)
Romney: 50% (+1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 14, 2012, 12:05:28 PM
Is it really that hard to believe that Democratic enthusiasm is much higher than Republican enthusiasm at this point? Romney was never exciting but now he's just getting embarrassing.

yes it's hard to believe.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pa2011 on September 14, 2012, 12:05:37 PM
Obama drops 1 in Gallup tracking poll, to 49. Romney stays same at 44. Obama +5.  (As an aside, shows you  how ridiculous Rasmussen's wild swings are)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 14, 2012, 12:10:39 PM
Obama drops 1 in Gallup tracking poll, to 49. Romney stays same at 44. Obama +5.  (As an aside, shows you  how ridiculous Rasmussen's wild swings are)

Well of course Rasmussen is going to swing more wildly than Gallup. Ipsos Reuters did too. That's the difference between using a 7 day rolling average, and a 3 day rolling average.

And seriously, when is Gallup going to switch to LV? What are they waiting for? Halloween?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pa2011 on September 14, 2012, 12:15:10 PM
So why is Reuters showing this while Rasmussen is showing what it shows. Both can't be correct.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Grumpier Than Uncle Joe on September 14, 2012, 12:16:33 PM
Is it really that hard to believe that Democratic enthusiasm is much higher than Republican enthusiasm at this point? Romney was never exciting but now he's just getting embarrassing.

yes it's hard to believe.

I agree with umengus E....if the Big O goes down...the lack of turnout (apathy) will be the cause......you know he's worried about it.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 14, 2012, 12:17:23 PM
So why is Reuters showing this while Rasmussen is showing what it shows. Both can't be correct.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913)

Because Rasmussen is full of bunk gas.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 14, 2012, 12:17:34 PM
Obama drops 1 in Gallup tracking poll, to 49. Romney stays same at 44. Obama +5.  (As an aside, shows you  how ridiculous Rasmussen's wild swings are)

gallup shows a slow decrease and it'is normal, considering that his poll is on 7 days. The bill clinton and obama speechs are still in...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 14, 2012, 12:22:38 PM
Anyone to give to me the party id of the ras national poll ? because I don't think that it's R +4... Only the august month was R +4 but the juny and july months were +- tied.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 14, 2012, 12:25:43 PM
So why is Reuters showing this while Rasmussen is showing what it shows. Both can't be correct.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913)

I think you made my point. I wasn't arguing that Ras and Gallup and Reuters have different numbers. I argued that swings can be related to the length of the rolling average.  Consider that just two days ago Reuters had the race at 46-43%, and then one day later it was 48-41%, and they use a smaller rolling average than Gallup. That sort of backs up what I said to begin with, right?  The smaller the rolling average, the more likely you are to see what YOU referred to as "wild swings."


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 14, 2012, 04:08:03 PM
So why is Reuters showing this while Rasmussen is showing what it shows. Both can't be correct.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913)

Because Rasmussen is full of bunk gas.

No, it seems to be more accurate that Reuters.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: mondale84 on September 14, 2012, 05:35:08 PM
So why is Reuters showing this while Rasmussen is showing what it shows. Both can't be correct.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913)

Because Rasmussen is full of bunk gas.

No, it seems to be more accurate that Reuters.

Scotty is more accurate than Reuters?!?!?!?! ::) ::) In what kind of deranged right-wing, Medicare-slashing, Oliver Twist killing, hackish, trollish world do you live in?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 14, 2012, 08:36:13 PM
So why is Reuters showing this while Rasmussen is showing what it shows. Both can't be correct.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913)

Because Rasmussen is full of bunk gas.

No, it seems to be more accurate that Reuters.

Scotty is more accurate than Reuters?!?!?!?! ::) ::) In what kind of deranged right-wing, Medicare-slashing, Oliver Twist killing, hackish, trollish world do you live in?

Yes, as the link that you posted showed the RCP average as being +3.3 for Obama.  ::)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Andrew1 on September 15, 2012, 02:40:50 PM
The Ipsos/Reuters "daily" tracking poll is turning into more of an occasional tracking poll.

According to the Ipsos website it wasn't published on Wednesday (while their national phone poll was), or Friday this week.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 15, 2012, 02:47:19 PM
Gallup

Obama:  49 (u)

Romney:  45 (+2)

The bounce is wearing off; we will see how much of ot was in the numbers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 15, 2012, 07:04:04 PM
Gallup

Obama:  49 (u)

Romney:  45 (+2)

The bounce is wearing off; we will see how much of ot was in the numbers.

Romney +1 and not+2

and tomorrow, the day after obama speech go away...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 16, 2012, 12:03:26 PM
Rasmussen: 49-48 Obama

Gallup: 48-45 Obama


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 16, 2012, 12:52:29 PM
Rasmussen: 49-48 Obama

Gallup: 48-45 Obama

come back to the situation before the conventions... 2 things maybe changed: better fav for Romney and base more energized for obama.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 17, 2012, 10:07:40 AM
9/17/12 - Monday

Rasmussen: Romney +2
Obama: 45% (-1)
Romney: 46% (-)

w/ leaners: TIE
Obama: 48% (-1)
Romney: 48% (-)

Rasmussen swing state poll: Romney +2
Obama: 45% (-)
Romney: 47% (-)

Rasmussen swing state w/ leaners: Romney +2
Obama: 47%
Romney: 49%

Gallup Registered Voters: Obama +3
Obama: 48% (-)
Romney: 45% (-)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: CultureKing on September 17, 2012, 10:45:43 AM
What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 17, 2012, 11:50:11 AM
What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on September 17, 2012, 12:15:18 PM
Not bad, considering many in that list were supposed to be more favourable for Obama.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on September 17, 2012, 12:25:27 PM
Not bad, considering many in that list were supposed to be more favourable for Obama.

Knowing Rasmussen, they probably polled 70% North-Carolinians and 30% everyone else or something. ::)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 17, 2012, 12:47:33 PM
Gallup is unchanged

Obama: 48
Romney: 45


Approval is also unchanged at 50/44


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 17, 2012, 01:33:20 PM
What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Romney +2 is fantastic with PA in the mix.  There could be 1-2 of the smaller states showing a large lead, however.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 17, 2012, 01:41:25 PM
You really start to see the power of Rasmussen whenever you see any GOP pundit on TV. Whenever someone talks about the polls and how Romney is losing they always say "well the Rasmussen poll shows...."  On Real Time with Ball Maher some GOPer started that and then everyone just started laughing at him. Of course it was a liberal group but even the GOPer seemed half-heated about the whole thing.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 17, 2012, 01:55:04 PM
Romney leading by +2 in that collection of swing states makes no sense if you look at Rasmussen's actual state by state polling, IMO.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 17, 2012, 02:07:09 PM
You really start to see the power of Rasmussen whenever you see any GOP pundit on TV. Whenever someone talks about the polls and how Romney is losing they always say "well the Rasmussen poll shows...."  On Real Time with Ball Maher some GOPer started that and then everyone just started laughing at him. Of course it was a liberal group but even the GOPer seemed half-heated about the whole thing.

Ras is not the only pollster to give a tied race. Answer in november.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: mondale84 on September 17, 2012, 02:48:27 PM
What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Since Obama leads in all these states, Scott proves once again he's a troll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 17, 2012, 02:55:39 PM
What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Since Obama leads in all these states, Scott proves once again he's a troll.

Romney leads in NC. CO, WI, NV, VA, OH, FL are tied. Ok for the rest.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: mondale84 on September 17, 2012, 02:59:03 PM
What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Since Obama leads in all these states, Scott proves once again he's a troll.

Romney leads in NC.
Questionable

Quote
CO, WI, NV, VA, OH, FL are tied.

You have just lost all credibility as a poster.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 17, 2012, 03:24:45 PM
WaPo has an article today just about what I was saying on how important Rasmussen is to the GOP polling pushback

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/09/17/rasmussen-the-gops-cure-for-the-common-poll/


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 17, 2012, 03:30:04 PM
I wouldn't put it beyond Razzy to be trolling us right now. Before the election his polls will be more or less accurate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 17, 2012, 04:04:42 PM
What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Since Obama leads in all these states, Scott proves once again he's a troll.

Romney leads in NC.
Questionable

Quote
CO, WI, NV, VA, OH, FL are tied.

You have just lost all credibility as a poster.

LOL


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 17, 2012, 04:50:12 PM
Ipsos/Reuters: Obama +5

LV
Obama 48
Romney 43

Their last poll was from last Thursday which had Obama 48/Romney 41. Don't know if this is still a daily tracker or a 'periodic tracker'


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on September 17, 2012, 06:39:13 PM
You really start to see the power of Rasmussen whenever you see any GOP pundit on TV. Whenever someone talks about the polls and how Romney is losing they always say "well the Rasmussen poll shows...."  On Real Time with Ball Maher some GOPer started that and then everyone just started laughing at him. Of course it was a liberal group but even the GOPer seemed half-heated about the whole thing.

Ras is not the only pollster to give a tied race. Answer in november.

It's good business to call this election tied.  The press in September 1984 was calling that election "still close" and polls were being released that showed it that way.  The race was never in doubt.

I wouldn't put it beyond Razzy to be trolling us right now. Before the election his polls will be more or less accurate.

Scotty does favorable Republican numbers so Republicans and FOX will buy the results from him, but then readjusts the weighted model for the final polls so that why he can claim to be accurate, too.  That accuracy seal of approval, though he misfired on it a bit in 2010, makes the next cycle's favorable Republican numbers seem that much more valuable.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 17, 2012, 07:04:30 PM
What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Since Obama leads in all these states, Scott proves once again he's a troll.

Well, we don't recent polls in all of them.  It is possible that Romney is surging in one (or several smaller ones), and the rest are static, or decreasing slightly.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 18, 2012, 12:07:13 PM
Gallup's 7 day rolling average of REGISTERED voters has the race exactly back where it was on Tuesday, before the start of the DNC.

Obama: 47% (-1)
Romney: 46% (+1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 18, 2012, 12:56:43 PM
What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Since Obama leads in all these states, Scott proves once again he's a troll.

Well, we don't recent polls in all of them.  It is possible that Romney is surging in one (or several smaller ones), and the rest are static, or decreasing slightly.

Romney is showing a lead in two, NC and CO, in some polls.  PA has shown a drop (11 down to 9) on some polls.  The rest could be just a tightening with better numbers in 2-3 states.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 18, 2012, 01:11:13 PM
Gallup's 7 day rolling average of REGISTERED voters has the race exactly back where it was on Tuesday, before the start of the DNC.

Obama: 47% (-1)
Romney: 46% (+1)

The race is over


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 18, 2012, 01:13:40 PM
Irony alert, Obama polling at 47% at Gallup, Romney polling at 47% at Rasmussen.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2012, 01:20:39 PM
It's actually 48-48 today on Rasmussen with leaners.

Don't know why RCP refuses to post these leaner numbers instead of the leaner-less numbers.

Maybe because Romney is ahead with the latter and it's a tie with the former ?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 18, 2012, 01:37:05 PM
It's actually 48-48 today on Rasmussen with leaners.

Don't know why RCP refuses to post these leaner numbers instead of the leaner-less numbers.

Maybe because Romney is ahead with the latter and it's a tie with the former ?

because others don't push the leaners yet...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: mondale84 on September 18, 2012, 01:49:27 PM
It's actually 48-48 today on Rasmussen with leaners.

Don't know why RCP refuses to post these leaner numbers instead of the leaner-less numbers.

Maybe because Romney is ahead with the latter and it's a tie with the former ?

Because RCP is a right-wing hack website.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 18, 2012, 02:20:52 PM
Now we just have to wait for the 47% deluge!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Badger on September 18, 2012, 03:11:34 PM
What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Since Obama leads in all these states, Scott proves once again he's a troll.

Romney leads in NC. CO, WI, NV, VA, OH, FL are tied. Ok for the rest.

Huh?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: mondale84 on September 18, 2012, 04:20:08 PM
What states does Rasmussen consider 'swing' states?

The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Since Obama leads in all these states, Scott proves once again he's a troll.

Romney leads in NC. CO, WI, NV, VA, OH, FL are tied. Ok for the rest.

Huh?

Ignore him. He's trolling.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on September 18, 2012, 04:48:32 PM
The RAND American Life Panel - 17/09

Obama 48.25
Romney 44.87


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 18, 2012, 04:52:45 PM
The RAND American Life Panel - 17/09

Obama 48.25
Romney 44.87

So even the Objectivists have Obama ahead? :P


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on September 18, 2012, 04:55:32 PM
The RAND American Life Panel - 17/09

Obama 48.25
Romney 44.87

So even the Objectivists have Obama ahead? :P

The RAND Corporation began life as an Air Force think tank during the Cold War. It stands for 'Research and Development'.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 18, 2012, 04:57:50 PM
The RAND American Life Panel - 17/09

Obama 48.25
Romney 44.87

So even the Objectivists have Obama ahead? :P

The RAND Corporation began life as an Air Force think tank during the Cold War. It stands for 'Research and Development'.

I figured....still a tad unfortunate though.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 18, 2012, 06:35:40 PM
Ipsos/Reuters: Obama +4

LV
Obama 47 (-1)
Romney 43

They also have this on Libya/Embassy thing
Quote
Four in 10 U.S. voters felt less favorably toward Romney after hearing about his criticism of President Barack Obama's handling of the attacks in which the U.S. ambassador to Libya was killed.

Only 26 percent of the registered voters polled felt worse about Obama after hearing about the Democrat's comments about the violence in the Middle East, the survey said.

"Romney probably did not do anything to shore up his foreign policy cred on this particular issue," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said, but she noted that foreign policy was typically low on lists of the issues most important to American voters.
...
The poll found that 37 percent of voters felt more favorable toward Obama after hearing about his remarks, versus 29 percent who felt favorable about Romney after hearing about his statement.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/18/us-usa-campaign-libya-idUSBRE88H1BY20120918


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 19, 2012, 01:21:01 PM
Gallup:

Obama:  47%, u

Romney:  46%, u


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 19, 2012, 01:28:02 PM
Rasmussen:

Obama: 46%

Romney: 47%

With leaners:  48/48


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 19, 2012, 05:06:08 PM
Ipsos/Reuters: Obama +5

LV
Obama 48 (+1)
Romney 43


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on September 19, 2012, 05:09:30 PM
The RAND American Life Panel - 18/09

Obama 48.78
Romney 44.4


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 19, 2012, 05:11:02 PM
That is an all time Obama high and largest lead for the RAND poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on September 19, 2012, 08:29:51 PM
Ipsos/Reuters: Obama +5

LV
Obama 48 (+1)
Romney 43



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on September 20, 2012, 04:54:25 AM
The RAND American Life Panel - 19/09

Obama 49.29 (+0.51)
Romney 43.91 (-0.49)

The also released updateds on racial splits which are:

Whites - 52.8 - 48.2 for Romney
African Americans - 90.7 to 6.5 for Obama
Hispanics - 66.4 to 24.8 for Obama
Others - 59.7 to 35.6 for Obama


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on September 20, 2012, 08:45:58 AM
Rassmussen

Obama 47
Romney 45

With leaners:

Obama 50
Romney 47


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ChrisFromNJ on September 20, 2012, 09:02:47 AM
Rassmussen

Obama 47
Romney 45

With leaners:

Obama 50
Romney 47

()

Seriously, these tracking polls are all over the place. Who knows what to think anymore. Isn't that a significant jump for Obama from yesterday?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 20, 2012, 09:04:30 AM
RAND is an Internet poll, though not self selecting.  http://www.rand.org/labor/roybalfd/american_life.html


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 20, 2012, 09:10:37 AM


Seriously, these tracking polls are all over the place. Who knows what to think anymore. Isn't that a significant jump for Obama from yesterday?

We could be seeing the effect of Romney's 47% remark.  The timing is right.

Libya may have actually hurt Obama.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 20, 2012, 09:12:55 AM
I think the job numbers hurt Obama more. Most of the decline seemed to come right after Obama's speech, which is when those numbers came out. Libya is a decent hypothesis too.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 20, 2012, 09:20:36 AM
I think the job numbers hurt Obama more. Most of the decline seemed to come right after Obama's speech, which is when those numbers came out. Libya is a decent hypothesis too.

First, I really should say this Islamic world and not limit it to Libya.

Second, Romney's comments regarding the apologies certainly did not hurt him.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on September 20, 2012, 09:30:49 AM
Second, Romney's comments regarding the apologies certainly did not hurt him.

Polls that directly ask voters how it alters their perception of the candidates say otherwise.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 20, 2012, 10:28:11 AM
Second, Romney's comments regarding the apologies certainly did not hurt him.

Polls that directly ask voters how it alters their perception of the candidates say otherwise.

Yet Romney's numbers went up after that.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Iosif on September 20, 2012, 11:00:01 AM
Yes, correlation is always causation.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on September 20, 2012, 12:31:19 PM
I think the job numbers hurt Obama more. Most of the decline seemed to come right after Obama's speech, which is when those numbers came out. Libya is a decent hypothesis too.

First, I really should say this Islamic world and not limit it to Libya.

Second, Romney's comments regarding the apologies certainly did not hurt him.

It was a missed opportunity for him. If he had just played it cool and presidential, he might have been able to gain some point. Instead he just reinforced the impression he will do anything to win elections.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 20, 2012, 02:12:04 PM
Reuters/Ipsos remains at Obama+5 today:

48-43 Obama

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/20/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88I1E920120920?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

Which probably means that Gallup has a bad pro-Romney sample inside their numbers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 20, 2012, 02:29:08 PM
Yes, correlation is always causation.

And he gained one on Gallup today.

47/47 all. 

Most of that sample is prior to to the 47% comment, however.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 20, 2012, 04:23:50 PM
Today's RAND chart  is just brutal for Romney. 
https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election

I have no idea if it is a good methodology or not. I agree with Nate Silver that it is an interesting way of doing things.  If it turns out to be close to accurate I wonder if other pollsters will use the same approach


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on September 20, 2012, 04:32:10 PM
The RAND methodology seems like it would have problems with figuring out the absolute state of the race as they never reselect their sample. With Gallup, if there is an R or D heavy sample, it'll roll off eventually and you'll see that.

It seems like RAND would be excellent at identifying shifts in the race though. If RAND goes from O+3 to O+5, it must be because people in the sample either changed their vote or changed their likelihood of voting. The poll even shows how many people have changed their mind in the last week if you go to that tab.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 20, 2012, 04:36:28 PM
i agree that it at least gives a good idea of trends. But obviously if they started with a bad sample then they are stuck with it. I don't know what they did to mitigate that, but it is a very large sample.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 20, 2012, 06:18:09 PM
Today's RAND chart  is just brutal for Romney. 
https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election

I have no idea if it is a good methodology or not. I agree with Nate Silver that it is an interesting way of doing things.  If it turns out to be close to accurate I wonder if other pollsters will use the same approach

It relies solely on people with Internet access on their own computer.  It is not however an "Internet poll" in the classic sense of the word.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on September 21, 2012, 12:55:45 PM
A handy comparison of the tracking polls by Nate Silver.

()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on September 22, 2012, 03:47:44 AM
One wonders what, exactly, happened with Gallup's poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on September 22, 2012, 09:55:13 AM
RAND 21 Sep

Obama 49.84
Romney 43.93

Every release they give us a snapshot of various demographics. Romney leads men by only 0.72. This is a huge change from the 15th when he led men by 6.76 and he had led with men fairly strongly since the start of the survey. Obama leads women by 12.18


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on September 22, 2012, 05:06:44 PM

Gallup and Rasmussen have been in conflict all cycle.  Rasmussen is swinging back to Obama so Gallup must keep the balance


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 22, 2012, 08:12:08 PM

Gallup and Rasmussen have been in conflict all cycle.  Rasmussen is swinging back to Obama so Gallup must keep the balance

Gallup has the horse race tied at 47/47, Rasmussen at 46/46.

Rasmussen has a shorter sampling period, so it is more likely to respond to a shift quickly.  It is also more likely to reflect a bad sample.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on September 22, 2012, 09:46:42 PM
Reuters/Ipsos Sept 17-21

Obama:  48 (nc)
Romney: 42 (-1)

http://www.scribd.com/doc/106649960/2012-Reuters-Ipsos-Daily-Election-Tracking-09-21-12


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 23, 2012, 12:23:16 PM
Gallup:

Obama:  48%

Romney: 46%

Rasmussen:

Tied at 48%.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 23, 2012, 02:47:37 PM
Looks like Romney supporters on cable news will have to remove "it's tied on Gallup" from their talking points. This morning on MTP Bay Buchannana screamed "its a dead heat" half a dozen time.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on September 23, 2012, 03:11:35 PM
Looks like Romney supporters on cable news will have to remove "it's tied on Gallup" from their talking points. This morning on MTP Bay Buchannana screamed "its a dead heat" half a dozen time.
Scarborough knocked her down so many times. It was truly beautiful.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 23, 2012, 03:16:32 PM
It's worth noting that Obama had overtaken McCain in the 2008 polling average 13 days after the end of the RNC.  That is the latest date that the national lead flipped in post-WWII history.  Obama is still moving slightly upward relative to the post-convention weekend and it has now been 17 days since the end of the DNC.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 23, 2012, 03:23:08 PM
Looks like Romney supporters on cable news will have to remove "it's tied on Gallup" from their talking points. This morning on MTP Bay Buchannana screamed "its a dead heat" half a dozen time.

They'll just jump from Gallup to Rasmussen.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 23, 2012, 04:31:02 PM
Looks like Romney supporters on cable news will have to remove "it's tied on Gallup" from their talking points. This morning on MTP Bay Buchannana screamed "its a dead heat" half a dozen time.

They'll just jump from Gallup to Rasmussen.

True but when anyone says "but Rasmussen says..." is obviously grasping at straws to anyone except the most hackish.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 24, 2012, 09:47:08 AM
Gallup has the 6 day cycle, so those are the numbers from the middle of last week, when Rasmussen showed an increase in approval number (47% comment response), that rolled off Rasmussen about three days later.  We will have to wait to see if this one drops off.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 24, 2012, 09:53:19 AM

Rasmussen:

Obama: 47%

Romney: 46%

With leaners:  48/48


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on September 24, 2012, 08:04:55 PM
Reuters/Ipsos Sept 20-24

Obama:  49 (+1)
Romney: 43 (+1)

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/24/us-usa-campaign-poll-idINBRE88N13H20120924


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 24, 2012, 10:58:09 PM
Gallup:

Obama:  48%

Romney:  46%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on September 25, 2012, 04:05:51 AM
RAND 9/24
Obama:  49.71
Romney: 43.47


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MorningInAmerica on September 25, 2012, 12:14:04 PM
Gallup:

Obama: 48% (-)
Romney: 45% (-1).

Obama's approval drops from 51/42% to 50/43%. Remember the job rating is on a 3 day rolling average and is of all ADULTS, the horse-race is on a 7 day rolling average and is of registered voters only.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on September 26, 2012, 04:10:43 AM
RAND 9/25

Obama:  50.18
Romney: 42.82


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 26, 2012, 09:06:50 AM
Ramussen:

Tied at 46% each.

With leaners:

Romney:  48%

Obama:  46%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 26, 2012, 10:44:12 AM
Ahh, our daily dose of Rasmussen-trolling. Cute.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Comrade Funk on September 26, 2012, 11:07:23 AM
Ahh, our daily dose of Rasmussen-trolling. Cute.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 26, 2012, 11:45:54 AM
Ipsos/Reuters:

49-42 Obama (LV)
48-39 Obama (RV)

Interview dates: Sept 21-25, 2012
Base: 1,340 registered voters (RV)
Base for Voting Intention: 1,122 Likely Voters (LV)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12012

YouGov/Economist:

48-43 Obama (RV)

Conducted September 22-24, 2012
Margin of Error: +/- 4.7%

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dqvatpi3fj/econToplines.pdf


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 26, 2012, 11:48:38 AM
That can't be right. Rasmussen is telling us that Romney is winning. Ask J.J.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 26, 2012, 11:51:44 AM
Ipsos/Reuters:

49-42 Obama (LV)
48-39 Obama (RV)

Interview dates: Sept 21-25, 2012
Base: 1,340 registered voters (RV)
Base for Voting Intention: 1,122 Likely Voters (LV)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12012

YouGov/Economist:

48-43 Obama (RV)

Conducted September 22-24, 2012
Margin of Error: +/- 4.7%

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dqvatpi3fj/econToplines.pdf

Over a year of campaigning and a billion dollars spent and we're getting a repeat of 2008.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on September 26, 2012, 12:04:55 PM
Obama hits 50% on Gallup

Obama-50%(+1)
Romney-44%(-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pa2011 on September 26, 2012, 12:05:24 PM
Gallup Tracking Poll is now Obama 50 (+2)  Romney 44 (-1).  


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 26, 2012, 12:06:15 PM
Considering their 7-day tracker, a HUGE Obama sample must have come in yesterday or so.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 26, 2012, 12:09:11 PM
On Sunday "it's tied on Gallup" was the talking point.

On Monday and Tuesday it was "It's statistically tied on Gallup"

Today: "Gallup is just another hack liberal pollster overestimating Democrats*"


*btw only trust Gallup when analyzing how this race is just like 1976, except ignore the president's Gallup approval rating in 1980 vs. 2012


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 26, 2012, 12:12:10 PM
hahahaha

awesome.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ChrisFromNJ on September 26, 2012, 12:22:44 PM
Daily tracking polls feed the hunger of political strategists, campaigns and the political press. I'm not sure they provide much in the way of anything else that a once a week national poll couldn't tell us. From day to day, This race is not changing at the pace Gallup tells it is. It is statistical noise within the margin of error.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Craigo on September 26, 2012, 01:00:16 PM
Daily tracking polls feed the hunger of political strategists, campaigns and the political press. I'm not sure they provide much in the way of anything else that a once a week national poll couldn't tell us. From day to day, This race is not changing at the pace Gallup tells it is. It is statistical noise within the margin of error.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 26, 2012, 02:30:53 PM
Considering their 7-day tracker, a HUGE Obama sample must have come in yesterday or so.

Or last week.  This could be a bump due to last week's post 47% comment numbers coming in. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: mondale84 on September 26, 2012, 02:59:22 PM
On Sunday "it's tied on Gallup" was the talking point.

On Monday and Tuesday it was "It's statistically tied on Gallup"

Today: "Gallup is just another hack liberal pollster overestimating Democrats*"


*btw only trust Gallup when analyzing how this race is just like 1976, except ignore the president's Gallup approval rating in 1980 vs. 2012

Unsurprising that Republicans make no sense.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 26, 2012, 05:42:38 PM
Ipsos/Reuters:

LV
Obama 49 (-)
Romney 43 (+1)

RV
Obama 47 (-1)
Romney 40 (+1)


Sept 22-26, 2012


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on September 26, 2012, 09:45:36 PM
Ipsos/Reuters:

49-42 Obama (LV)
48-39 Obama (RV)

Interview dates: Sept 21-25, 2012
Base: 1,340 registered voters (RV)
Base for Voting Intention: 1,122 Likely Voters (LV)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12012

YouGov/Economist:

48-43 Obama (RV)

Conducted September 22-24, 2012
Margin of Error: +/- 4.7%

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dqvatpi3fj/econToplines.pdf

Over a year of campaigning and a billion dollars spent and we're getting a repeat of 2008.

Romney accidentally stimulated the economy in all the swing states.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on September 27, 2012, 08:18:44 AM
The RAND American Life Panel (9/26):
Obama: 50.46%
Romney: 42.46%

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

The graph here is pretty eloquent, if you follow the link...



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 27, 2012, 02:34:42 PM
Ipsos remains at 49-42 today:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/27/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88Q1JB20120927


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on September 27, 2012, 02:57:39 PM
What is Rasmussen even doing to have Romney ahead in this race?  He's ahead but losing every swing state outside of NC by more than 5?  It makes him look ridiculous.  This is a renowed pollster with a decent record but he was dreadful in 2010 and he's seemingly completely off the mark this time.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 27, 2012, 03:04:58 PM
Today Nate Silver wrote about how Rasmussen is the only poll showing anything good for Romney  noting...

Quote
What to think of the Rasmussen poll? Their surveys usually have a Republican lean, but it seems to have gotten stronger in the last few weeks. It has also been stronger in some years than others. Rasmussen got reasonably good results in years like 2006 and 2008 when their polls were close to the consensus. However, their polls were the least accurate of the major polling firms in 2010, when they had an especially strong Republican house-effect. The same was true in 2000, when they had a three- or four-point statistical bias toward Republican candidates.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on September 27, 2012, 06:25:00 PM
Rasmussen w/o lean:
Obama:  46 (nc)
Romney: 46 (nc)

Rasmussen w/ lean:
Obama:  48 (+2)
Romney: 48 (nc)

Gallup:
Obama:  50 (nc)
Romney: 44 (nc)

Reuters/Ipsos:
Obama:  49 (nc)
Romney: 42 (-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 27, 2012, 09:20:45 PM
Today Nate Silver wrote about how Rasmussen is the only poll showing anything good for Romney  noting...

Quote
What to think of the Rasmussen poll? Their surveys usually have a Republican lean, but it seems to have gotten stronger in the last few weeks. It has also been stronger in some years than others. Rasmussen got reasonably good results in years like 2006 and 2008 when their polls were close to the consensus. However, their polls were the least accurate of the major polling firms in 2010, when they had an especially strong Republican house-effect. The same was true in 2000, when they had a three- or four-point statistical bias toward Republican candidates.

They actually underestimated the number GOP House seats gained in 2010.

One difference is the cycle.  Rasmussen is on a three day cycle, so it responds more quickly.  It had Romney down last week, while Gallup showed him gaining/holding.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: CultureKing on September 27, 2012, 10:59:47 PM
The RAND American Life Panel (9/26):
Obama: 50.46%
Romney: 42.46%

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

The graph here is pretty eloquent, if you follow the link...



Look at the last graph. It's the breakdown of voters by income. Romney has lost big with low-income voters over the last three or so weeks.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 28, 2012, 08:49:59 AM
Rasmussen:

Obama: 47

Romney:  46

With leaners:  48/48


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 28, 2012, 12:02:34 PM
Rasmussen:

Obama: 47

Romney:  46

With leaners:  48/48

"Romney is supported by 86% of Republicans, while Obama gets the vote from 85% of Democrats. The GOP hopeful has a four-point edge among voters not affiliated with either major party."

so the R+4 sample is a myth...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on September 28, 2012, 12:05:14 PM
The words coming from Scott Rasmussen. That is an objective source.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on September 28, 2012, 12:45:31 PM
Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 28, 2012, 12:48:01 PM
Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 28, 2012, 05:53:59 PM
Ipsos/Reuters:

LV
Obama 47 (-2)
Romney 42 (-)

RV
Obama 46 (-2)
Romney 39 (+1)


Sept 24-28 2012


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 28, 2012, 07:36:48 PM
Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

Irrelevant to what he was saying.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: memphis on September 28, 2012, 09:54:09 PM
The RAND American Life Panel (9/26):
Obama: 50.46%
Romney: 42.46%

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

The graph here is pretty eloquent, if you follow the link...



Look at the last graph. It's the breakdown of voters by income. Romney has lost big with low-income voters over the last three or so weeks.
Amazing how a population responds to a politician saying, behind their back, that they see themselves as victims and are, thus, unworthy of courting.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on September 28, 2012, 11:31:15 PM
Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

Irrelevant to what he was saying.

Kind of just irrelevant, generally. Among other things, I believe that the approval numbers are among adults, and the horserace numbers among RV.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 28, 2012, 11:49:56 PM
Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

Irrelevant to what he was saying.

Kind of just irrelevant, generally. Among other things, I believe that the approval numbers are among adults, and the horserace numbers among RV.

Approval ratings do matter ... but only to a point. I've argued all year that if the horse race is really close, then the approvals will matter. But if the challenger is clearly down nationally, and the approvals of the incumbent are down or even in negative terms, then it shows the incumbent can be ahead in spite of that.

But this election could break many established rules of elections... having said that I doubt Obama's approvals will be underwater in many places outside of Ras on election day.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on September 29, 2012, 01:38:07 AM
Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

Irrelevant to what he was saying.

Kind of just irrelevant, generally. Among other things, I believe that the approval numbers are among adults, and the horserace numbers among RV.

Approval ratings do matter ... but only to a point. I've argued all year that if the horse race is really close, then the approvals will matter. But if the challenger is clearly down nationally, and the approvals of the incumbent are down or even in negative terms, then it shows the incumbent can be ahead in spite of that.

But this election could break many established rules of elections... having said that I doubt Obama's approvals will be underwater in many places outside of Ras on election day.
Well, approval ratings do matter, but across all pollsters, not in one daily tracking poll with a small sample, and not really among adults at this point.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 29, 2012, 07:50:25 AM
Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

Irrelevant to what he was saying.

I generally have been reporting both as a matter of course, when I have them.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on September 29, 2012, 12:07:05 PM
Meanwhile, the erstwhile-gold-standard Gallup tracker has the race steady, at Obama 50-Romney 44.

Disapproval is up one on Gallup.

Irrelevant to what he was saying.

I generally have been reporting both as a matter of course, when I have them.

In the interest of thoroughness, then, I'm posting the Rasmussen tracking poll numbers here, for anyone who may have missed them in the Obama Approval rating thread:

without leaners: Obama 48-Romney 46
with leaners: Obama 49-Romney 47

Still watching that 47% blip roll off the numbers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 29, 2012, 12:08:23 PM
Still holding on Gallup with Romney 46, Obama 50.

Approval now at 48%, 46% disapprove.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on September 29, 2012, 12:09:30 PM
Still holding on Gallup with Romney 46, Obama 50.

Approval now at 48%, 46% disapprove.
Romney 44, Obama 50, that is.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pa2011 on September 29, 2012, 12:09:44 PM
Was just going to say, I am surprised Gallup seems to have settled out with this consistent 6 point Obama lead.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on September 29, 2012, 12:12:59 PM
It is a bit strange to see the constant 50-44 lead with so much movement in the job approval number. You have to wonder if there isn't some huge Obama sample on the 7 day tracker that is holding the lead at 6. Time will tell I guess.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 29, 2012, 12:13:53 PM


Still watching that 47% blip roll off the numbers.

They already did, silly.  It was in there on 9/19 to 9/22, then it dropped.  See the trends link on this page: 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on September 29, 2012, 12:17:07 PM


Still watching that 47% blip roll off the numbers.

They already did, silly.  It was in there on 9/19 to 9/22, then it dropped.  See the trends link on this page:  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
So what's driving Obama's rise in the Rasmussen tracker now? Whatever it is, you must be expecting to see it reflected in Gallup sooner or later.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 29, 2012, 12:19:11 PM
It is a bit strange to see the constant 50-44 lead with so much movement in the job approval number. You have to wonder if there isn't some huge Obama sample on the 7 day tracker that is holding the lead at 6. Time will tell I guess.

You are probably seeing a strong pro Obama sample in there that was a reaction to the 47% comment.  That is why I was saying wait until Tuesday.  

The week the comment came out, Obama's weekly approval actually went down.  They just were not yet getting the reaction results as of that point (though Rasmussen had them).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on September 29, 2012, 12:21:29 PM
It is a bit strange to see the constant 50-44 lead with so much movement in the job approval number. You have to wonder if there isn't some huge Obama sample on the 7 day tracker that is holding the lead at 6. Time will tell I guess.

You are probably seeing a strong pro Obama sample in there that was a reaction to the 47% comment.  That is why I was saying wait until Tuesday.  

The week the comment came out, Obama's weekly approval actually went down.  They just were not yet getting the reaction results as of that point (though Rasmussen had them).

I wouldn't read that much into Gallup's approval rating numbers, given that they're of adults, not of RV or of LV. And given that an average of 65 out of every 500 adults they poll every night is not an RV, there's plenty of room for the approval numbers to fluctuate in ways bearing no relationship to the horserace numbers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 29, 2012, 12:32:02 PM


Still watching that 47% blip roll off the numbers.

They already did, silly.  It was in there on 9/19 to 9/22, then it dropped.  See the trends link on this page:  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
So what's driving Obama's rise in the Rasmussen tracker now? Whatever it is, you must be expecting to see it reflected in Gallup sooner or later.

Anything could be, including just statistical noise.  

No, the reason I was expecting a drop off on Gallup was because Romney went up on Gallup immediately after the comments.  It was obvious that the reaction samples were not yet a major component of the Gallup sample.

Gallup has a 6 day sample; Rasmussen has a 3 day sample.  Rasmussen records the changes more quickly than Gallup, but it is also be more influenced by a bad sample.  A bad sample will register for three days, then drop.  Rasmussen showed a clear shift, of more than three days, but there was nothing on Gallup.  It was obvious to someone with even an average understanding of polling that Gallup would jump when those numbers became a major part of the Gallup sample.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on September 29, 2012, 12:33:35 PM
RAND

Obama 50.27
Romney 43.23

It seems to have stabilized. If the Rand poll rounded like other polls, then Obama would have been at 50 with Romney at 44/43  for the last week.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 29, 2012, 12:38:53 PM
It is a bit strange to see the constant 50-44 lead with so much movement in the job approval number. You have to wonder if there isn't some huge Obama sample on the 7 day tracker that is holding the lead at 6. Time will tell I guess.

You are probably seeing a strong pro Obama sample in there that was a reaction to the 47% comment.  That is why I was saying wait until Tuesday.  

The week the comment came out, Obama's weekly approval actually went down.  They just were not yet getting the reaction results as of that point (though Rasmussen had them).

I wouldn't read that much into Gallup's approval rating numbers, given that they're of adults, not of RV or of LV. And given that an average of 65 out of every 500 adults they poll every night is not an RV, there's plenty of room for the approval numbers to fluctuate in ways bearing no relationship to the horserace numbers.

Gallup says that it is registered voters.  

Quote
The recent presidential trial heat results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Sept. 19-25, 2012, with a random half-sample of 3,272 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157709/obama-approval-vote-support-reach-better.aspx


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on September 29, 2012, 01:11:32 PM
The trial heat numbers are RV. The approval numbers are adults:

"Gallup tracks daily the percentage of Americans who approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president. Daily results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 1,500 national adults; Margin of error is ±3 percentage points. "

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 30, 2012, 08:37:08 AM
Rasmussen - 30 Sept

without leaners
Obama: 48%
Romney: 46%

with leaners
Obama: 49%
Romney: 47%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 30, 2012, 11:11:34 AM
Obama opens a 5-point lead @ Rasmussen's swing state tracking today.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 30, 2012, 11:52:45 AM
the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on September 30, 2012, 11:53:43 AM
the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

I'm glad he's finally admitted it.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 30, 2012, 11:56:37 AM
the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Skewed!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 30, 2012, 11:58:55 AM
the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

I'm glad he's finally admitted it.

so not R+4...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 30, 2012, 12:02:13 PM
the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Currently it's not.

It's about R+2.2 for this daily LV tracking (via the "Argo Journal", I guess they have Premium access):

Quote
Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted September 27-29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 35.97% Republican; 33.77% Democrat; 30.27% Independent.  Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.

http://www.argojournal.com/2012/09/poll-watch-rasmussen-r-2012-daily_30.html

So he would have to adjust his numbers by 5 points until election day so that they reflect his quote in your article, which would basically change the whole Obama lead to about plus 5 or 7.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 30, 2012, 12:05:13 PM
What Scott Rasmussen's trying to say I guess is that he will use a D+3 sample in the final week, instead of his current R+2 sample, to save face.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on September 30, 2012, 12:10:39 PM
What Scott Rasmussen's trying to say I guess is that he will use a D+3 sample in the final week, instead of his current R+2 sample, to save face.
Kind of makes you wonder, right, why he weights for partisan ID, something almost no other pollster does, when he himself thinks that actual turnout in November will be quite different from his weightings.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on September 30, 2012, 12:12:57 PM
What Scott Rasmussen's trying to say I guess is that he will use a D+3 sample in the final week, instead of his current R+2 sample, to save face.
Kind of makes you wonder, right, why he weights for partisan ID, something almost no other pollster does, when he himself thinks that actual turnout in November will be quite different from his weightings.

Because he has to get on Fox News somehow.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 30, 2012, 12:13:41 PM
What Scott Rasmussen's trying to say I guess is that he will use a D+3 sample in the final week, instead of his current R+2 sample, to save face.
Kind of makes you wonder, right, why he weights for partisan ID, something almost no other pollster does, when he himself thinks that actual turnout in November will be quite different from his weightings.

Because he has a partisan agenda during the election season to produce favorable polls for GOP candidates to shape the narrative, but he also has a company to lead and clients to keep, so he has to "adjust" his numbers in the end not to look stupid.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 30, 2012, 12:15:37 PM
the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Currently it's not.

It's about R+2.2 for this daily LV tracking (via the "Argo Journal", I guess they have Premium access):

Quote
Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted September 27-29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 35.97% Republican; 33.77% Democrat; 30.27% Independent.  Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.

http://www.argojournal.com/2012/09/poll-watch-rasmussen-r-2012-daily_30.html

So he would have to adjust his numbers by 5 points until election day so that they reflect his quote in your article, which would basically change the whole Obama lead to about plus 5 or 7.

probably a mistake because Romney had a lead amongst I by 4 in his tracking poll during the week but O was leading by 1 at general level and at the same time.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 30, 2012, 12:18:50 PM
the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Currently it's not.

It's about R+2.2 for this daily LV tracking (via the "Argo Journal", I guess they have Premium access):

Quote
Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted September 27-29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 35.97% Republican; 33.77% Democrat; 30.27% Independent.  Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.

http://www.argojournal.com/2012/09/poll-watch-rasmussen-r-2012-daily_30.html

So he would have to adjust his numbers by 5 points until election day so that they reflect his quote in your article, which would basically change the whole Obama lead to about plus 5 or 7.

probably a mistake because Romney had a lead amongst I by 4 in his tracking poll during the week but O was leading by 1 at general level and at the same time.

Not really, if you take into account that more Republicans could vote for Obama in his poll than Democrats for Romney, and rounding issues.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 30, 2012, 12:20:13 PM
the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Currently it's not.

It's about R+2.2 for this daily LV tracking (via the "Argo Journal", I guess they have Premium access):

Quote
Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted September 27-29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 35.97% Republican; 33.77% Democrat; 30.27% Independent.  Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.

http://www.argojournal.com/2012/09/poll-watch-rasmussen-r-2012-daily_30.html

So he would have to adjust his numbers by 5 points until election day so that they reflect his quote in your article, which would basically change the whole Obama lead to about plus 5 or 7.

probably a mistake because Romney had a lead amongst I by 4 in his tracking poll during the week but O was leading by 1 at general level and at the same time.

Not really, if you take into account that more Republicans could vote for Obama in his poll than Democrats for Romney, and rounding issues.

it was the same...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on September 30, 2012, 12:20:51 PM
Rasmussen:

Obama: 47

Romney:  46

With leaners:  48/48

"Romney is supported by 86% of Republicans, while Obama gets the vote from 85% of Democrats. The GOP hopeful has a four-point edge among voters not affiliated with either major party."

so the R+4 sample is a myth...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on September 30, 2012, 12:21:35 PM
the party id of the ras samples is D+3

http://washingtonexaminer.com/rasmussen-yes-dems-likely-have-2-4-point-advantage-in-november/article/2509409#.UGeycRj2Ez6

Currently it's not.

It's about R+2.2 for this daily LV tracking (via the "Argo Journal", I guess they have Premium access):

Quote
Survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted September 27-29, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 35.97% Republican; 33.77% Democrat; 30.27% Independent.  Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.

http://www.argojournal.com/2012/09/poll-watch-rasmussen-r-2012-daily_30.html

So he would have to adjust his numbers by 5 points until election day so that they reflect his quote in your article, which would basically change the whole Obama lead to about plus 5 or 7.

probably a mistake because Romney had a lead amongst I by 4 in his tracking poll during the week but O was leading by 1 at general level and at the same time.

Not really, if you take into account that more Republicans could vote for Obama in his poll than Democrats for Romney, and rounding issues.

it was the same...

How do you know ? Do you have Premium access ? If you have it, you know his party ID anyway. Or are you just guessing ?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 30, 2012, 12:39:03 PM
Gallup:

Obama: 49%, -1

Romney: 44%, u





Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on September 30, 2012, 03:46:40 PM
We all know that Rassy is going to do this.  It's what he always does.  R+x every week until mid-October and then starts doing real polls the final two weeks.  That way he can sell good polling to Republicans all cycle long and still call himself an accurate pollster on his resume.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on September 30, 2012, 05:21:52 PM
We all know that Rassy is going to do this.  It's what he always does.  R+x every week until mid-October and then starts doing real polls the final two weeks.  That way he can sell good polling to Republicans all cycle long and still call himself an accurate pollster on his resume.

Well, first, the comment was about Gallup.  Second, Rasmussen will be switching to likely voters tomorrow.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 01, 2012, 12:03:53 AM
We all know that Rassy is going to do this.  It's what he always does.  R+x every week until mid-October and then starts doing real polls the final two weeks.  That way he can sell good polling to Republicans all cycle long and still call himself an accurate pollster on his resume.

Well, first, the comment was about Gallup.  Second, Rasmussen will be switching to likely voters leaners tomorrow.

Corrected the post for you.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 01, 2012, 08:39:42 AM
Rasmussen - Monday 1 October

Obama - 50% (+1)
Romney - 47% (UC)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 01, 2012, 10:17:00 AM
Swing States (Rasmussen):

In the 11 swing states, the president earns 51% support to Mitt Romney’s 45%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

Beginning today, Rasmussen Reports is including “leaners” in the totals. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ChrisFromNJ on October 01, 2012, 10:31:34 AM
Slowly but surely, Rasmussen will try to earn back credibility. The switch to a likely voters  screen is that opportunity.

BTW, you know the news is good for Obama when it is past 930 am and J.J still hadn't posted in the thread.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 01, 2012, 12:09:11 PM
Monday 1 October

Gallup: Obama +4
Obama - 49% (-)
Romney - 45% (+1)

Obama ticked up one on approval to 47/46


RAND: Obama +6.21
Obama - 50.06% (-0.15)
Romney - 43.75% (+0.42)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on October 01, 2012, 04:32:40 PM
Reuters/Ipsos
Obama:  46 (-1)
Romney: 41 (-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 02, 2012, 09:19:34 AM
Rasmussen 48/47, Obama.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ill ind on October 02, 2012, 10:20:03 AM
  Adding that Rassmussen has Obama up 50-45 in the Swing State portion of the tracking poll meaning that the 48-47 topline poll, while still good news for Romney, isn't quite as good as it could be.

Ill_Ind


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 02, 2012, 12:43:43 PM
Gallup:

Obama:  50, +1

Romney: 44, -1


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on October 02, 2012, 01:08:51 PM
Not sure what today's movement in Gallup means.. great Obama sample just came on? Good Romney sample dropped off? Who knows.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 02, 2012, 01:11:20 PM
Not sure what today's movement in Gallup means.. great Obama sample just came on? Good Romney sample dropped off? Who knows.

I'd say that there isn't a drop off.  It looks like 4-6 point lead on Gallup, that is natural.  It is out of the six day cycle.

Right now, I'd predict an Obama victory, of under 310 EV's.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 02, 2012, 02:02:59 PM
Not sure what today's movement in Gallup means.. great Obama sample just came on? Good Romney sample dropped off? Who knows.

I'd say that there isn't a drop off.  It looks like 4-6 point lead on Gallup, that is natural.  It is out of the six day cycle.

Right now, I'd predict an Obama victory, of under 310 EV's.

There's really no reason to think that Romney would carry Florida if the election were today (which is basically the only way to keep Obama under 310 EVs).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on October 02, 2012, 03:56:35 PM
I think in the end Obama will lose Florida, unless there has been some real shifts among Cubans the last four years, and that's not the case I don't think. It's a more gradual shift that has been occurring over time. Otherwise I think Obama has pretty much sealed the deal in the rest of the Obama 2008 states except NC and IN. NC is a pure turnout battle and since I'm not on the ground I don't want to predict it.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 02, 2012, 10:30:38 PM
Honestly, I think FL will go Republican this year. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 03, 2012, 03:24:48 PM
Gallup:

Obama 49, -1

Romney 45, +1


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on October 03, 2012, 03:31:35 PM
Rasmussen
Obama:  49 (+1)
Romney: 47 (nc)

RAND
Obama:  49.76 (-0.31)
Romney: 44.22 (+0.12)

Reuters/Ipsos
Obama:  47 (+1)
Romney: 41 (nc)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 04, 2012, 09:25:41 AM
Rasmussen:

Obama:  49%

Romney: 47%

Unchanged.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 04, 2012, 09:34:57 AM
Rasmussen:

Obama:  49%

Romney: 47%

Unchanged.

You'll have to wait a couple of days for the deluge. :(


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on October 04, 2012, 02:38:27 PM
Obama:  48
Romney: 43

Take it for what it's worth, only 538 people surveyed and it's of registered voters, though Reuters does say that all of the surveys were conducted after the debate.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/04/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121004


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 04, 2012, 02:42:27 PM
The one bright side of last night is, that if turns out Romney is still losing to Obama, then we can be pretty sure this election is basically over. If last night is not enough to put Romney into the lead, then nothing is.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 04, 2012, 02:50:19 PM
Past exit polling shows that only 22%-25% haven't made up their minds by the end of September. This year I bet the number could be as low as 20%. So for the other 80%, watching lat night is like watching sports. You root for your team, but you arent going to become a fan of the opponent just because your team lost.

That being said, I still suspect that within the 20% of persadables, Romney has probably changed some minds and that will probably show up as a bump in the polls. Losing a debate has a ripple effect in social media, among friends and family and via the media. There is a week or so of Obama as a loser and that has to hurt.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Peeperkorn on October 04, 2012, 02:52:15 PM
What a joke:

Quote
The poll found that Obama's seven-point advantage over Romney had narrowed to a five-point lead, 48 percent to 43 percent, but a truly accurate reading on the debate's impact will not be possible for several days, he said.

That is because the poll drew on a smaller pool of voters, taken over a shorter period of time, than the Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll that measures the prospects of each candidate.

The online poll surveyed 536 registered voters on Wednesday and Thursday after the debate. It has a credibility interval of 4.8 percentage points.

()



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on October 04, 2012, 03:01:10 PM
Wow, that "poll" is a joke.. I'll wait for some real numbers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 04, 2012, 03:06:08 PM
It's not a joke, but unless they polled everything from 11:00 PM yesterday to 11:30 AM today, it won't get any post poll numbers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 04, 2012, 03:08:49 PM
Also unchanged on Gallup, with Obama 49, Romney 44.

We probably won't the full debate effects, if any, until Monday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 04, 2012, 03:10:29 PM
In other words, it's DebateFail for Romney.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on October 04, 2012, 03:14:52 PM
Quote
The online poll surveyed 536 registered voters on Wednesday and Thursday after the debate. It has a credibility interval of 4.8 percentage points.

They say that the interviews were conducted after the debate though I'm not sure how they could have done many Wednesday interviews if they were waiting until after the debate to do them. Still, there's no reason to publish this smaller sample poll rather than their tracking poll if they're including old interviews.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on October 04, 2012, 03:21:55 PM
Interesting if true.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on October 04, 2012, 03:26:19 PM
In other words, it's DebateFail for Romney.

Hardly. I expect the tracing polls released today will have little if any post-debate sampling, and none of what little there might be will be from the Eastern or Central Time Zones.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 04, 2012, 03:28:20 PM
So the first data point to come in is a 2 point Romney bump with Obama retaining a lead (likely narrower among LV).  That lines up almost exactly with Bush 2004 and Nate Silver's regression.  If it happened across the board, it would also bring the race back in line with the economic models currently showing Obama by <1%.     


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 04, 2012, 03:28:46 PM
In other words, it's DebateFail for Romney.

In other words, we don't any post debate numbers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on October 04, 2012, 03:31:00 PM
Just read through the topline results on their page.. they compared pre-debate poll to post-debate... likely voters went from Obama +9 pre-debate to Obama +5 post-debate.. for what it's worth.. only time will tell.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The Mikado on October 04, 2012, 03:34:06 PM

This is a perfectly adequate sample size, if the people polled are members of the Electoral College.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on October 04, 2012, 03:35:54 PM
Here are the topline results.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12047


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on October 04, 2012, 03:46:15 PM
Just read through the topline results on their page.. they compared pre-debate poll to post-debate... likely voters went from Obama +9 pre-debate to Obama +5 post-debate.. for what it's worth.. only time will tell.
If those numbers are borne out by other polls (and it's too early to know if they will be) that would be both a relatively large shift for a debate to cause, and also not nearly enough on its own to change the election result.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 04, 2012, 04:18:38 PM
the bounce is +4 with a pollster overestimating democrats by great mesure.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: LiberalJunkie on October 04, 2012, 05:12:55 PM
The one bright side of last night is, that if turns out Romney is still losing to Obama, then we can be pretty sure this election is basically over.

Yep. People are overreacting way too much.

the bounce is +4 with a pollster overestimating democrats by great mesure.

Oh stop complaining about the Poll ID.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 04, 2012, 08:20:39 PM

This is a perfectly adequate sample size, if the people polled are members of the Electoral College.

Well, that would give Obama 258 electors, Romney 231, and 49 electors who wouldn't vote or vote for someone else. Which means the election is thrown to the House where Republicans have a majority.

Bad news for Obama. :'(


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 04, 2012, 11:08:50 PM
The one bright side of last night is, that if turns out Romney is still losing to Obama, then we can be pretty sure this election is basically over.

Yep. People are overreacting way too much.

the bounce is +4 with a pollster overestimating democrats by great mesure.

Oh stop complaining about the Poll ID.

certainly not...

Facts are stubborn things.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on October 05, 2012, 06:33:33 AM
Rand American Life Panel, Oct 2-3-4:

Obama   49.76   49.17   49.87
Romney  44.22   44.83   43.98






Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 05, 2012, 06:55:20 AM
Rand American Life Panel, Oct 2-3-4:

Obama   49.76   49.17   49.87
Romney  44.22   44.83   43.98


Curious.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on October 05, 2012, 07:01:36 AM
Rand American Life Panel, Oct 2-3-4:

Obama   49.76   49.17   49.87
Romney  44.22   44.83   43.98






If those numbers are accurate, then (barring a major Obama gaffe or scandal) Romney is almost certainly done.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 05, 2012, 10:08:58 AM
Rasmussen:  49/47 Obama, unchanged.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 05, 2012, 11:23:15 AM
Obama also leads 50 (-1) to 45 (nc) in the battlegrounds according to Scott.

lol mitt sucks


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 05, 2012, 11:34:58 AM
Obama also leads 50 (-1) to 45 (nc) in the battlegrounds according to Scott.

lol mitt sucks

I wouldn't, he's released two state polls that are closer.  Obama could be surging in PA or MI, and falling apart every place else. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on October 05, 2012, 12:03:30 PM
Must have been one heck of a Romney sample that just dropped off this tracker.

Rand American Life Panel, Oct 2-3-4:

Obama   49.76   49.17   49.87
Romney  44.22   44.83   43.98







Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 05, 2012, 12:13:14 PM
Gallup

Obama 50 (+1)
Romney 45


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 05, 2012, 01:53:55 PM
Obama needs to drink a Red Bull and get a little more serious about preparation before the next debate and he should be alright.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on October 05, 2012, 01:57:09 PM
Obama needs to drink a Red Bull and get a little more serious about preparation before the next debate and he should be alright.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 05, 2012, 01:58:41 PM
Must have been one heck of a Romney sample that just dropped off this tracker.

Rand American Life Panel, Oct 2-3-4:

Obama   49.76   49.17   49.87
Romney  44.22   44.83   43.98



Well the unique thing about this poll is that it is the same exact sample every day, so that doesn't explain the fluctuation.

That being said if you were rounding up RAND like other polls then it has been very consistent for the last couple of weeks with Obama holding at 50 (except for yesterday at 49) and Romney at 43/44 (again except for yesterday at 45).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on October 05, 2012, 02:00:23 PM
Reuters/Ipsos has the race narrowing 46-44 in their most recent tracking poll. They don't say if this is among all of their M-F samples or only those taken since the debates. Either way, this is a significant tightening since yesterday when the reported the post-debate horserace at 48-43.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121005


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on October 05, 2012, 02:20:39 PM
Quote
Every day one seventh of the panel members receive an email inviting them to answer the three questions above within a week. So one seventh of the panel members always get an email on Monday, one seventh always on Tuesday, etc. In total about 3,500 panel members participate, so every day about 500 panel members get an email inviting them to “vote.”

So at what point do people actually reply? How close to 500 people actually reply every day, what percentage actually replies on polling day? And is it reweighted for evening things out?
People have until 1am Pacific Time day after to vote, so the October 3rd bump could be from the debate. Also, 7 days and 14 days before October 4th were, in fact, relatively bad days for Obama, so if it's actually more or less the same 500 people rolling a new reply in every thursday, this could be but a handful of people snapping back to their senses after reporting oddly mittenish for the past two weeks.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Beet on October 05, 2012, 03:28:50 PM
This is the kind of passion the people want to see from Obama
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lz8x60JRemc&feature=relmfu


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 05, 2012, 03:45:18 PM
Reuters/Ipsos has the race narrowing 46-44 in their most recent tracking poll. They don't say if this is among all of their M-F samples or only those taken since the debates. Either way, this is a significant tightening since yesterday when the reported the post-debate horserace at 48-43.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121005

I'm not crazy about this methodology.  Their numbers seems to show a sizable shift that no one else is.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 05, 2012, 04:30:48 PM
"These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, only about one-third of the interviews for today’s update were conducted after the presidential debate. The single night of polling conducted after the debate did show some improvement for Romney, but it remains to be seen whether that will continue or if it was merely statistical noise. Sunday morning’s update will be the first national polling based entirely upon post-debate interviews. "

Scott Rasmussen

"some improvement"...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on October 05, 2012, 04:36:11 PM
Rand American Life Panel, Oct 2-3-4:

Obama   49.76   49.17   49.87
Romney  44.22   44.83   43.98

If those numbers are accurate, then (barring a major Obama gaffe or scandal) Romney is almost certainly done.

RAND's methodology doesn't capture voter intensity well, and it's a seven day rolling average.  We'll need a few more days to see what RAND is showing.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 05, 2012, 04:38:20 PM
Reuters/Ipsos has the race narrowing 46-44 in their most recent tracking poll. They don't say if this is among all of their M-F samples or only those taken since the debates. Either way, this is a significant tightening since yesterday when the reported the post-debate horserace at 48-43.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121005

"The online tracking poll conducted between Monday and Friday showed 46 percent of likely voters backed Obama, versus 44 percent for Romney."

so it's clear and Romney will take probably the lead in next days. But pew is a bad pollster so...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on October 05, 2012, 06:34:51 PM
Keep in mind folks that a daily shift is not just the addition of a new day but dropping of an old one.  If post debate night was Romney +2 but so was the sample 4 days ago, then they cancel each other out.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 06, 2012, 04:24:43 AM
Keep in mind folks that a daily shift is not just the addition of a new day but dropping of an old one.  If post debate night was Romney +2 but so was the sample 4 days ago, then they cancel each other out.

correct but I don't think that the post debate night was R +2.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 06, 2012, 08:51:28 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, +2

Obama:  47, -2

Approval is running 50/49 Obama.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ty440 on October 06, 2012, 09:07:07 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, +2

Obama:  47, -2

Approval is running 50/49 Obama.

Romney gets his bounce. How long will it last and how deep and wide is it?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 06, 2012, 09:32:31 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, +2

Obama:  47, -2

Approval is running 50/49 Obama.

Romney gets his bounce. How long will it last and how deep and wide is it?

Well, we don't have a full sample showing the bounce as of yet.  One day of the sample is from Wednesday prior to the debate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cavalcade on October 06, 2012, 09:34:10 AM
Heck of a Romney sample.  Which implies that Friday was a better Romney day than Thursday, when Rasmussen did those very good-for-Romney OH/VA/FL polls.

If he hits 50 in Rasmussen tomorrow, that will be his first ever 50% in their tracker or any other national poll right?

I do think some of this is a bounce, and particularly that Obama can regain some ground by being competent in the remaining debates.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 06, 2012, 09:35:13 AM
It's Rasmussen - not some credible pollster or something.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 06, 2012, 09:41:24 AM
It's going to be a very short lived bounce if Obama's approval is still hanging at 50%, I suspect...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 06, 2012, 09:43:44 AM
I still don't get where people think there'll be any bounce for Romney, considering his miserable performance in that debate.

You don't gain votes by running against Big Bird.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 06, 2012, 09:50:23 AM
Romney will get a bounce - you need to accept that....


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 06, 2012, 09:54:44 AM
Romney will get a bounce - you need to accept that....

Romney lost the damn debate. We need to accept that.

He was rude, belligerent, dishonest, and ill-informed.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 06, 2012, 09:57:51 AM
I still don't get where people think there'll be any bounce for Romney, considering his miserable performance in that debate.

You don't gain votes by running against Big Bird.

Because we look at actual polls, the ones that show him with the highest numbers since they started polling.  

It will move his numbers, but it might be ephemeral.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 06, 2012, 09:58:16 AM
Romney will get a bounce - you need to accept that....

Romney lost the damn debate. We need to accept that.

He was rude, belligerent, dishonest, and ill-informed.

denial


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 06, 2012, 09:59:59 AM
Romney will get a bounce - you need to accept that....

Romney lost the damn debate. We need to accept that.

He was rude, belligerent, dishonest, and ill-informed.

denial

Denial seems to be the official sport of Republicans on this board.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 06, 2012, 10:00:55 AM
Romney will get a bounce - you need to accept that....

Romney lost the damn debate. We need to accept that.

He was rude, belligerent, dishonest, and ill-informed.

denial

Denial seems to be the official sport of Republicans on this board.

More denial. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 06, 2012, 10:03:40 AM

Your candidate lost when he decided canceling 'Sesame Street' would be a good idea.

Get over it.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on October 06, 2012, 10:08:13 AM
Romney will get a bounce - you need to accept that....

Romney lost the damn debate. We need to accept that.

He was rude, belligerent, dishonest, and ill-informed.

These days you win debates by being rude, belligerent, dishonest, and ill-informed.

Romney won the damn debate. You need to accept that.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 06, 2012, 10:08:56 AM

Your candidate lost when he decided canceling 'Sesame Street' would be a good idea.

Get over it.

Nobody wants to go into debt to fund Big Bird.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 06, 2012, 10:10:04 AM
These days you win debates by being rude, belligerent, dishonest, and ill-informed.

Then we should stop calling it a debate and start calling it a public temper tantrum.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 06, 2012, 10:14:55 AM
Alright, I don't think Romney was that great, because he lied left right and especially centre, was a little too aggressive at times - but equally Obama looked bored and irritated and gave Romney WAY WAY too many free passes... But it has nothing to do with substance (regardless of who might have 'won' on that front) it had to do with presentation - and Romney was considered to be more engaged, enthusiastic and confident ... so he won, simple as that.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 06, 2012, 10:17:06 AM
It's better to be bored than to be a big bully.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on October 06, 2012, 11:22:16 AM
Romney will get a bounce - you need to accept that....

Romney lost the damn debate. We need to accept that.

He was rude, belligerent, dishonest, and ill-informed.
If the Bush years are any indication, this is what Republicans - and Dem-voting Moderate Hero mainstream journalists - want to see in a President.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 06, 2012, 11:34:55 AM

Your candidate lost when he decided canceling 'Sesame Street' would be a good idea.

Get over it.

Nobody wants to go into debt to fund Big Bird.
If you really think PBS is part of the debt problem J.J., then you're the delusional one. That said, Bandit's no more right than you are.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 06, 2012, 12:00:04 PM
Obama won the debate for me too but I accept that I clearly am in the minority with that opinion.

The biggest issue with his performance was how lethargic he became in the second half of the debate. Red Bull, brother! They need to expand the world of his talking points a little too.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 06, 2012, 12:09:03 PM
Gallup

Obama 49% (-1)
Romney 46%( +1)


Romney's post-debate bounce continues.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on October 06, 2012, 12:10:50 PM
Gallup

O 49 (-1)
R 46 (+1)

Bouncing continues.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 06, 2012, 12:12:51 PM
It's over.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: opebo on October 06, 2012, 12:15:27 PM

What do you mean?  Obama's chances at the presidency?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 06, 2012, 12:16:43 PM

Your candidate lost when he decided canceling 'Sesame Street' would be a good idea.

Get over it.

Nobody wants to go into debt to fund Big Bird.
If you really think PBS is part of the debt problem J.J., then you're the delusional one. That said, Bandit's no more right than you are.

That was the point of the comment, if you missed it.  The point seems to have worked.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 06, 2012, 12:17:24 PM

Well it means yesterday had to be something like Romney +5.  Not over, but not good at all when you consider early voting.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 06, 2012, 12:18:05 PM

Huh?  We don't even know if these numbers are ephemeral or not.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 06, 2012, 12:21:02 PM

Huh?  We don't even know if these numbers are ephemeral or not.

Until now, there hasn't been a single case of a more than 4% bump in the polling averages all year long.  Why would there be another one this month?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 06, 2012, 12:21:26 PM

Yes.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 06, 2012, 12:25:24 PM

Lief, at some point there was overly pro-Obama sample in Gallup.  It might have something to do with it.  Pull yourself together!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: opebo on October 06, 2012, 12:29:22 PM

Oh, I agree!  So, I'm not the only one. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 06, 2012, 12:35:09 PM
Yes, that "shine" better start packing his bags right now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ty440 on October 06, 2012, 12:37:55 PM
Yes, that "shine" better start packing his bags right now.

WTF does shine mean, I assume it's a southern derogatory term for blacks but what is the meaning behind it?



It reminds me of the rapper shine...LOL


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 06, 2012, 12:41:43 PM
Dude, Obama's bounce is about to come too, in the form of the unemployment rate drop.
Gallup's polling is only S-F. Two of the days are when Obama got slammed in the 24 HourNews cycle, so that means 2/7 are big Romney samples. Saturday-Wednsday, the samples had been either closing the gap or relatively stable. So the race was tightening anyway.
2/3 of Rasmussen's interviews were conducted after the debate and Romney only leads 49-47. And that's with his crazy methodology of weighting by Party ID and having them represented 37.6 Republican, 33.3 Democrat, and 29.2 Independent. That's a +5 Republican edge. And Obama's approval is steady at 50%.
And dont forget that the rolling average drops days as quickly as it picks them up, so theyll be dropping these pro-Romney samples in the next day or two and probably picking up some ones that are more pre-debate. This race is nowhere near over.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 06, 2012, 12:42:39 PM
Yes, that "shine" better start packing his bags right now.

WTF does shine mean, I assume it's a southern derogatory term for blacks but what is the meaning behind it?


Yes, it was from racist poem cited in Gates' Colored People.  We don't use it, in general, even in my neighborhood.  


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on October 06, 2012, 12:43:56 PM
Yes, that "shine" better start packing his bags right now.

WTF does shine mean, I assume it's a southern derogatory term for blacks but is the meaning behind it?

Quote from: wikipedia
Shine
    a disparaging term for a black person originating from their working at shoe shine stands on urban streets or in bus and train station terminals
And the source they give for that etymology is... Urban Dictionary. lol. Mind you, it'd be one of my two first guesses, so...



Goddam Ninjas.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 06, 2012, 12:44:08 PM
I really wouldn't expect much of a bounce for Obama based on the jobs report but I seriously doubt Romney's debate bounce will last very long.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 06, 2012, 12:47:43 PM
I really wouldn't expect much of a bounce for Obama based on the jobs report but I seriously doubt Romney's debate bounce will last very long.
I'm not saying a bounce, I'm just saying that the Pro-Romney samples will start dropping out in the next day or two and some that have heard about the jobs report will replace them, which is good news for the President.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: opebo on October 06, 2012, 01:00:11 PM
What you're all posting about polling technicalities is no doubt true.. I just think my thesis fits the electorate better.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 06, 2012, 01:01:50 PM
I really wouldn't expect much of a bounce for Obama based on the jobs report but I seriously doubt Romney's debate bounce will last very long.
I'm not saying a bounce, I'm just saying that the Pro-Romney samples will start dropping out in the next day or two and some that have heard about the jobs report will replace them, which is good news for the President.

The jobs report was partly in this sample (about a third).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: opebo on October 06, 2012, 01:03:03 PM
I really wouldn't expect much of a bounce for Obama based on the jobs report but I seriously doubt Romney's debate bounce will last very long.
I'm not saying a bounce, I'm just saying that the Pro-Romney samples will start dropping out in the next day or two and some that have heard about the jobs report will replace them, which is good news for the President.

The jobs report was partly in this sample (about a third).

The jobs report won't make any difference with white swing voters now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 06, 2012, 01:08:11 PM
I really wouldn't expect much of a bounce for Obama based on the jobs report but I seriously doubt Romney's debate bounce will last very long.
I'm not saying a bounce, I'm just saying that the Pro-Romney samples will start dropping out in the next day or two and some that have heard about the jobs report will replace them, which is good news for the President.
The jobs report was partly in this sample (about a third).
Exactly, which means it might be negating a larger Romney bounce.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 06, 2012, 01:25:20 PM

Exactly, which means it might be negating a larger Romney bounce.



Well, if this is the "negated bounce," Obama is in big trouble.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 06, 2012, 01:28:12 PM

Exactly, which means it might be negating a larger Romney bounce.



Well, if this is the "negated bounce," Obama is in big trouble.
A two point lead isn't trouble. Romney nearly always has a two point lead in Rasmussen.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 06, 2012, 01:38:20 PM

Exactly, which means it might be negating a larger Romney bounce.



Well, if this is the "negated bounce," Obama is in big trouble.
A two point lead isn't trouble. Romney nearly always has a two point lead in Rasmussen.

First, no he didn't.  Second, if this poll includes "good news" and Obama is still slipping, it is really bad.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 06, 2012, 03:05:30 PM
Reuters

Obama-47(+1)
Romney-45(+1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on October 06, 2012, 03:28:49 PM
Per the internals, 75% of the interviews happened after the debates.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12055


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 06, 2012, 03:42:23 PM
Thank god, the erosion may be stopping. Romney is still the favorite though. I'm dreading PPP's Wisconsin numbers tonight.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on October 06, 2012, 03:49:55 PM

Your candidate lost when he decided canceling 'Sesame Street' would be a good idea.

Get over it.

Nobody wants to go into debt to fund Big Bird.

The most popular method with which people donate to PBS during pledge drives? Credit card. So it appears that adding debt to pay for quality, non-corporate, safe, educational entertainment for your children is indeed worth borrowing for. It provides a much better return on investment than borrowing trillions on a war most Americans were never sold on in the first place.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on October 06, 2012, 03:55:54 PM
Thank god, the erosion may be stopping. Romney is still the favorite though. I'm dreading PPP's Wisconsin numbers tonight.

Calm down, Lief, we've been here before - Wisconsin was within a point or so after the Ryan pick. ;)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on October 06, 2012, 03:56:41 PM
Hard to say that Romney is the favorite at this point. Obama still clearly the favorite.

Thank god, the erosion may be stopping. Romney is still the favorite though. I'm dreading PPP's Wisconsin numbers tonight.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 06, 2012, 04:23:12 PM
RAND

Obama: 49.18 (-0.69)
Romney: 44.75 (+0.76)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Unironic Merrick Garland Stan on October 06, 2012, 04:27:56 PM
Has there been one credible poll that shows the race has shifted in Romney's favor? I don't think it's changed dramatically at all.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 06, 2012, 04:28:55 PM
So it seems, Friday was a very strong Romney sample on Ras and Gallup, there was a big drop on Rueters, but it looks like Obama might be stabilising on that... and Rand remains positive for the president...

As I said in the other thread, I think we'll get a decent picture of what sort of genuine 'bounce' Romney had until early-Mid next week...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on October 06, 2012, 04:29:59 PM
The thing is, I'm really not all that sure that any movement for Romney (and he was going to get some anyway) is going to be significant as opposed to a temporary bounce.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 06, 2012, 04:34:10 PM
That's the issue that we'll need time to assess...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 06, 2012, 11:28:25 PM

Your candidate lost when he decided canceling 'Sesame Street' would be a good idea.

Get over it.

Nobody wants to go into debt to fund Big Bird.

The most popular method with which people donate to PBS during pledge drives? Credit card. So it appears that adding debt to pay for quality, non-corporate, safe, educational entertainment for your children is indeed worth borrowing for. It provides a much better return on investment than borrowing trillions on a war most Americans were never sold on in the first place.

And they pay their bills. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 07, 2012, 08:47:48 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u

Interestingly, Obama approval is at 50/49 (u).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 07, 2012, 08:57:40 AM
That's good news. The first post debate sample will drop off tommorow.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 07, 2012, 09:59:38 AM
If Obama's approval is still at 50%, then I think this Romney surge may indeed be ephemeral.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on October 07, 2012, 10:07:57 AM
If Obama's approval is still at 50%, then I think this Romney surge may indeed be ephemeral.

Agreed.

If Obama's approval ratings are on or around 50% on election day it's hard to see him losing this election.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 07, 2012, 12:01:24 PM
Gallup

Obama-49 (NC)
Romney-46(NC)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 07, 2012, 12:03:11 PM

The bounce may already be receding, that was quick...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 07, 2012, 12:05:58 PM

The bounce may already be receding, that was quick...

The was a possibly heavy Obama sample in the approval poll.

Also remember, the sample is 4/7 pre debate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on October 07, 2012, 12:06:56 PM
Gallup did also show Obama's approval dropping to 48 Approve (-2) and 46 (+1) Disapprove. So it's hard to say whether the bounce is receding yet.. only time will tell I guess.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2012, 12:08:45 PM
Gallup should start a 3-day likely voter model soon, instead of their 7-day RV tracker and adult approval tracker.

It's only 4 weeks until the election ...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 07, 2012, 12:10:00 PM
Gallup should start a 3-day likely voter model soon, instead of their 7-day RV tracker and adult approval tracker.

It's only 4 weeks until the election ...

I wholeheartedly agree.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on October 07, 2012, 02:11:51 PM
Reuters/Ipsos Oct. 3-7
Obama:   47 (nc)
Romney: 45 (nc)

I think that this survey is now entirely post-debate. Based on past Reuters/Ipsos releases, they seem to have waited until after the debate to conduct all of their Oct. 3 interviews, but I can't tell for sure because they haven't released the internals yet.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 07, 2012, 02:14:06 PM
Reuters/Ipsos Oct. 3-7
Obama:   47 (nc)
Romney: 45 (nc)

I think that this survey is now entirely post-debate. Based on past Reuters/Ipsos releases, they seem to have waited until after the debate to conduct all of their Oct. 3 interviews, but I can't tell for sure because they haven't released the internals yet.
Looks like Mitt's bounce has bounced.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 後援会 on October 07, 2012, 02:15:27 PM
Trailing by 2 is still a serious improvement, I would think.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 07, 2012, 02:17:02 PM
DEFENSE! DEFENSE!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 07, 2012, 02:22:03 PM
Not surprised.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 後援会 on October 07, 2012, 02:23:58 PM
IIRC, Romney was trailing by 6 in the last Ipsos poll. There is a big difference between trailing by 6 and trailing by 2.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 07, 2012, 02:32:05 PM
IIRC, Romney was trailing by 6 in the last Ipsos poll. There is a big difference between trailing by 6 and trailing by 2.

Agreed, but every day that this bounce looks more like 2004 than 1980 is good news for Obama.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 後援会 on October 07, 2012, 02:37:02 PM
IIRC, Romney was trailing by 6 in the last Ipsos poll. There is a big difference between trailing by 6 and trailing by 2.

Agreed, but every day that this bounce looks more like 2004 than 1980 is good news for Obama.

I like how the definition of good news for Obama here is not as bad as a disaster for Obama. Which is quite telling in of itself.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on October 07, 2012, 02:39:44 PM
IIRC, Romney was trailing by 6 in the last Ipsos poll. There is a big difference between trailing by 6 and trailing by 2.

Agreed, but every day that this bounce looks more like 2004 than 1980 is good news for Obama.

I like how the definition of good news for Obama here is not as bad as a disaster for Obama. Which is quite telling in of itself.

I don't really understand your point here - it's fairly well accepted at this point that the debate was very good for Romney, and bad for Obama - of course any evidence that Romney's bounce is just that as opposed to significant movement is good news.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 後援会 on October 07, 2012, 02:43:32 PM
I don't really understand your point here - it's fairly well accepted at this point that the debate was very good for Romney, and bad for Obama

Not necessarily. There have certainly been people here and elsewhere claiming the opposite.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 07, 2012, 02:45:23 PM
RAND:
Obama: 48.95 (-.23)
Romney: 45.10 (+.35)

Romney has got about a 2 point bounce since pre-debate (he's up 1, Obama down 1)

RE: Reuters
Before debate it was Obama 46/Romney 41. So there he has a 3 point bounce. (He's up 4, Obama down 1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on October 07, 2012, 02:47:24 PM
I don't really understand your point here - it's fairly well accepted at this point that the debate was very good for Romney, and bad for Obama

Not necessarily. There have certainly been people here and elsewhere claiming the opposite.

Eh, well there's a few Dems here and there claiming otherwise, but they're not to be taken seriously - I'm not sure how someone could reasonably argue that the debate was anything other than good for Romney - although I suppose the limited evidence we have so far shows that Romney gained more than Obama lost, which is probably relatively good news for Obama in context.

The media narrative has been "Romney won the debate!" - anyone claiming that this is a bad thing for Romney is nothing but a hack and troll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on October 07, 2012, 06:46:16 PM
IIRC, Romney was trailing by 6 in the last Ipsos poll. There is a big difference between trailing by 6 and trailing by 2.

Agreed, but every day that this bounce looks more like 2004 than 1980 is good news for Obama.

I like how the definition of good news for Obama here is not as bad as a disaster for Obama. Which is quite telling in of itself.

Yes, it is good news that Obama is still leading by 2 instead of being behind Romney. Very good news actually. It doesn't matter if you win by 2 or 6 points, a win is a win.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on October 07, 2012, 11:23:04 PM
This is a state poll, but it may cause us to calibrate the effects of any bounce that Mitt Romney got from the debate:


Virginia Survey Results


Quote
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 50%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 2%

Which matters greatly.

Using all names appearing on the ballot for President:

Quote
Q8 If the candidates for President this fall were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, Libertarian Gary Johnson,
Constitution Party candidate Virgil Goode, and
Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who would
you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 44%
Gary Johnson ................................................. 4%
Virgil Goode .................................................... 1%
Jill Stein .......................................................... 0%
Undecided....................................................... 2%

It is 50-47 for Obama if third-party nominees are not mentioned.

On what matters most:

Quote
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 47%
Undecided....................................................... 3%


Q4 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

Q5 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

...and something of transitory interest


Quote
Q6 Who do you think won the debate between
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney this week?
Barack Obama................................................ 28%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 61%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

I know that state polls generally belong elsewhere,  but Virginia is likely close to the US average in its voting. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-3-in-virginia.html




Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 08, 2012, 06:15:11 AM
RAND stable.

Obama 48.93 (-0.02)
Romney 45.91 (+0.09)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 08, 2012, 09:09:23 AM
Rasmussen: Obama 48 (+1), Romney 48 (-1)

poor mittens


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Franzl on October 08, 2012, 09:12:08 AM
Rasmussen: Obama 48 (+1), Romney 48 (-1)

poor mittens

Wow.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: GMantis on October 08, 2012, 09:13:57 AM
It seems the bounce will not even plateau, but fall off straight away.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 08, 2012, 09:23:52 AM
Jobs numbers may be having an effect. Obama's favourables are up and Rasmussen notes that consumer confidence moved up ten points once the numbers were released.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 08, 2012, 09:27:08 AM
Rasmussen: Obama 48 (+1), Romney 48 (-1)

poor mittens

The internals krazen quoted about Romney being up 5 in Ohio are looking a little fishier this morning.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 08, 2012, 09:49:12 AM
It seems the bounce will not even plateau, but fall off straight away.

I'm not seeing any evidence of a drop off.  It might have moved Romney closer, but not over the top.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 08, 2012, 10:02:37 AM
It seems the bounce will not even plateau, but fall off straight away.

I'm not seeing any evidence of a drop off.  It might have moved Romney closer, but not over the top.

Looking at Rassmussen and working back, when last Tuesday fell off and the Wed-Fri sample favoured Romney by 49 to 47 that means Romney had a huge advantage in the Friday sample which seems consistent with what pollsters like PP were saying. The Thursday to Saturday sample showed the margin as steady which means Obama probably had to have had a Saturday sample as good (relatively speaking) as his pre-debate Wednesday sample (he may have led that days sample). For the race to now be tied today it means that the Sunday sample had to been at least equally strong.

If Friday was a BIG sample for Romney (so much so that it caused most of the four point jump) then that sample falls off tomorrow. If Obama has an average to good day today then he is likely to take the lead tomorrow. If he as a very good day today he could find himself back up to a 2 point lead.

That would constitute, given what we know about Rasmussen a return to the status quo. Still all hypothetical of course.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Torie on October 08, 2012, 10:17:38 AM
Has this Gallup poll (http://www.gallup.com/poll/157907/romney-narrows-vote-gap-historic-debate-win.aspx) been noticed that has the race closing from a five point Obama lead to dead even?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 08, 2012, 10:21:35 AM
Has this Gallup poll (http://www.gallup.com/poll/157907/romney-narrows-vote-gap-historic-debate-win.aspx) been noticed that has the race closing from a five point Obama lead to dead even?
That's just the three days after the debate, I believe. Romney got a huge bump from that sample but it'll be dropping off any day now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 08, 2012, 12:02:03 PM
Gallup Daily Tracking Poll
Obama 50 (+1)
Romney 45 (-1)

The bounce is over baby.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: xavier110 on October 08, 2012, 12:07:55 PM

Congrats on reelection Barack!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 08, 2012, 12:11:02 PM
wow, Mitt Romney really, really sucks


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 08, 2012, 12:13:27 PM

Seven day sample, so there could be a high pre-debate one in there.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: xavier110 on October 08, 2012, 12:15:55 PM

Seven day sample, so there could be a high pre-debate one in there.

That's obviously not what just boosted his numbers after Romney's strong post-debate day.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on October 08, 2012, 12:17:23 PM
Yesterday must have been a very good Obama day on both Rasmussen and Gallup


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 08, 2012, 12:27:04 PM

What polling firm is this?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 08, 2012, 12:27:42 PM

Gallup.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on October 08, 2012, 12:43:35 PM
What I am hearing from people who understand policy amongst my age group (not many of course) is that while Romney won the debate, he had no substance/lied. Add in a good jobs report and the numbers don't surprise me.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 08, 2012, 12:47:55 PM

Thank you and awesome!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 08, 2012, 12:50:20 PM
Is there a reason RCP has the race tied at 47 percent in their table?



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 08, 2012, 12:57:38 PM
Is there a reason RCP has the race tied at 47 percent in their table?



They are going with Gallup three day sample that showed a tied race.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on October 08, 2012, 03:00:21 PM
Fellow Obama supporters, I will accept further accolades at a time convenient to you.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: opebo on October 08, 2012, 03:04:09 PM
Fellow Obama supporters, I will accept further accolades at a time convenient to you.

About what?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 08, 2012, 03:14:02 PM
Is there a reason RCP has the race tied at 47 percent in their table?

They are going with Gallup three day sample that showed a tied race.

A pretty pathetic move on their part. RCP is run by a bunch of Republican hacks and if they can cut corners to paint a prettier picture for Romney, they will. I'm not just throwing out accusations either, I've actually talked to the only liberalish guy who works there before.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Gustaf on October 08, 2012, 03:50:45 PM
Pew shows Romney pulling even: http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/ (http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/)

That's a Thu-Sun poll though.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 08, 2012, 03:55:35 PM
Pew shows Romney pulling even: http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/ (http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/)

That's a Thu-Sun poll though.
Mitt must've had some huge leads Thursday and Friday then. Democrats were probably to sad to pick up the phone.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 08, 2012, 06:20:42 PM
Pew shows Romney pulling even: http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/ (http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/)

That's a Thu-Sun poll though.
Mitt must've had some huge leads Thursday and Friday then. Democrats were probably to sad to pick up the phone.

He didn't have a great day Thursday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 08, 2012, 06:58:46 PM
According to NPR, Gallup is switching to LV tomorrow.

The guest expects Obama's lead to evaporate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 08, 2012, 07:03:10 PM
According to NPR, Gallup is switching to LV tomorrow.

Don't they already use LV?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 08, 2012, 07:06:46 PM
According to NPR, Gallup is switching to LV tomorrow.

Don't they already use LV?

No RV... I expect +5 to go to +2-3


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 08, 2012, 07:20:30 PM
It's about time. They should have switched over almost a month ago.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 08, 2012, 07:23:29 PM
Is Gallup sticking with 7 day or switching to 3 day? If it is 3 day, then Romney may be ahead in LV.

Also dont see a Reuters/Ipsos today. They seem to take days off every once in a while.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: AmericanNation on October 08, 2012, 09:03:02 PM
Pew Poll

Romney 49
Obama  45

Pew is usually messed up, but rarely in favor of Rs. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 08, 2012, 10:48:40 PM
Pew Poll

Romney 49
Obama  45

Pew is usually messed up, but rarely in favor of Rs.  

Why are you posting this in the tracking poll thread?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 08, 2012, 10:50:21 PM
Pew Poll

Romney 49
Obama  45

Pew is usually messed up, but rarely in favor of Rs.  

Why are you posting this in the tracking poll thread?

Not only that, but the poll has already been discredited by the internals.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 08, 2012, 10:52:58 PM
Pew Poll

Romney 49
Obama  45

Pew is usually messed up, but rarely in favor of Rs.  

Why are you posting this in the tracking poll thread?

Not only that, but the poll has already been discredited by the internals.
What internals?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 08, 2012, 10:55:44 PM
Pew Poll

Romney 49
Obama  45

Pew is usually messed up, but rarely in favor of Rs.  

Why are you posting this in the tracking poll thread?

Not only that, but the poll has already been discredited by the internals.
What internals?

68% of respondents were over 50.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cinyc on October 08, 2012, 11:14:09 PM

Like most polls, the Pew poll was weighted for age.  The over 50s' responses were weighted less than the under 50s' when deriving at the top line number.

That's pretty standard procedure for pollsters.  Most pollsters end up with too many over 50s and too few under 50s, relative to the population.  Who do you think is home to answer the phone at 2PM on a work day?  And who is less likely to have caller ID to screen calls?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2012, 01:00:16 AM
Yes, it was confirmed that Gallup will switch to LV today and show Obama/Romney tied, down from O+5 among their RV poll.

This will mean Romney is ahead for the first time in the RCP average.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 09, 2012, 01:02:34 AM
Who confirmed it'd be tied?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2012, 01:32:06 AM

USA Today's Susan Page:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/08/likely_voter_screen_wipes_out_obama_lead_in_gallup_poll.html


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 09, 2012, 01:38:06 AM

USA Today's Susan Page:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/08/likely_voter_screen_wipes_out_obama_lead_in_gallup_poll.html
I'm still holding out hope Obama's still up. Romney leading in the RCP average would be a massive psychological loss for Obama supporters everywhere. He hasn't done it in over a year.
Anyway, anyone got the latest RAND Poll results?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2012, 01:40:29 AM

USA Today's Susan Page:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/08/likely_voter_screen_wipes_out_obama_lead_in_gallup_poll.html
I'm still holding out hope Obama's still up. Romney leading in the RCP average would be a massive psychological loss for Obama supporters everywhere. He hasn't done it in over a year.
Anyway, anyone got the latest RAND Poll results?

There's about a 90% chance Romney will lead on the RCP average later today, when they include the Gallup results and the Zogby poll which has it a tie. They probably throw out the older polls too and because Romney is ahead in the Pew poll by 4, he should lead by about 0.3-0.5% overall.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 09, 2012, 01:43:06 AM
Unless Obama somehow manages to pull ahead on Ras tomorrow (which is plausible, but I expect the tie to hold), since I don't know how the Gallup LV screen will work, but I'm expecting either a tie or a +1 either side, Romney will take the lead on RCP tomorrow... and Obama's supporters are going to have to suck it up and keep working to get it back.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 09, 2012, 03:33:25 AM
RAND 8th October

Obama 49.07 (+0.14)
Romney 45.24 (+0.05)

Interestingly Romney supporters 'intention to vote' has fallen while Obama supporters 'intention to vote' has been increasing and is now at it's highest since the survey began.

They have also released details of their sub-samples for the battleground states. These are too small (I think) to consitutute polls on their own. For what it's worth it shows a narrowing in Ohio (which was driven pre-debate) but a steady Obama lead in Florida


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 09, 2012, 08:45:08 AM
Rasmussen

Obama 48 (unc)
Romney 48 (unc)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: GMantis on October 09, 2012, 08:49:16 AM
So the bounce seems not to have receded as quickly as previously thought.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 09, 2012, 08:49:23 AM
Rasmussen

Obama 48 (unc)
Romney 48 (unc)

At this rate we may actually get a few days where Democratic spin doctors start talking highly of the Rasmuusen poll and Republicans disregard it in favor of polls like Pew and PPP/Dailykos!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cavalcade on October 09, 2012, 08:54:41 AM
Rasmussen

Obama 48 (unc)
Romney 48 (unc)

At this rate we may actually get a few days where Democratic spin doctors start talking highly of the Rasmuusen poll and Republicans disregard it in favor of polls like Pew and PPP/Dailykos!

Yeah, over the last week there's been a major shift in party ID among respondents towards Republicans which had an impact on all the polls except for the ones (like Rasmussen) which have been weighting party ID in an R-favored way for some time.  So Rasmussen now has less of a house effect than it used to- this also shows up in state polls, like where they still have Obama up in Colorado, Iowa, and Ohio.

Also, this is Sat-Sun-Mon, which means it doesn't include the great day Romney had on Friday.  I'd thought Obama would get a lead again with that day dropping off the tracker.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 09, 2012, 08:56:08 AM
It's kind of hilarious if October saw the American electorate adjusting to match Rasmussen rather than the other way around.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 09, 2012, 09:11:03 AM
It's kind of hilarious if October saw the American electorate adjusting to match Rasmussen rather than the other way around.

If it actually lasts.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: GMantis on October 09, 2012, 09:36:18 AM
Rasmussen Swing State Tracking Poll:

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 47 (-2)



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 09, 2012, 10:05:03 AM
Rasmussen Swing State Tracking Poll:

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 47 (-2)



That methodology is really bad.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: GMantis on October 09, 2012, 10:29:02 AM
Rasmussen Swing State Tracking Poll:

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 47 (-2)



That methodology is really bad.
How so?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 09, 2012, 11:02:58 AM

Lumping all the "swing states" together.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 09, 2012, 12:00:25 PM
Gallup

LV: Romney 49 (+1) Obama 47 (-1)
RV: Obama 50 (+1) Romney 45 (-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 09, 2012, 12:00:52 PM
Romney is going to take the lead in RCP for the first time.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 09, 2012, 12:03:42 PM
Gallup

LV: Romney 49 (+1) Obama 47 (-1)
RV: Obama 50 (+1) Romney 45 (-1)

A 7-point diff between LV and RV? I don't think so, Gallup.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 09, 2012, 12:04:39 PM
The RV numbers are actually Obama 49 (-1), Romney 47 (+1).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 09, 2012, 12:05:42 PM
Romney is going to take the lead in RCP for the first time.

Second time.  October 2011.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 09, 2012, 12:06:10 PM
Interestingly Obama's approvals are up to 53% and Gallup are still using a 7 day model for their Presidential tracker. I thought they would have switched to a three day model?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 09, 2012, 12:07:41 PM
The RV numbers are actually Obama 49 (-1), Romney 47 (+1).

That changed. I wish I screen grabbed the page but the numbers I posted were the ones on the site at the o'clock.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: AmericanNation on October 09, 2012, 12:10:39 PM

Lumping all the "swing states" together.

It is interesting that Obama won all 11 states in 08 and the margin was like 53-46, outside of that pretty much useless. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 09, 2012, 12:13:36 PM
Interestingly Obama's approvals are up to 53% and Gallup are still using a 7 day model for their Presidential tracker. I thought they would have switched to a three day model?

The only way you can defeat an incumbent President with approvals that high is if the opponent is already some sort of national hero. Sorry, Mitt, you lose.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 09, 2012, 12:18:28 PM
I saw some reverse math at Brad DeLong's site that said that Obama must have had an extraordinarily good sample on Sunday to account for the numbers Gallup was showing between the two 3-day breakouts and the 7-day option. Like, O +20. Given the credibility problem that would (rightfully) cause, that's a reason for Gallup to stick to 7-day samples a little longer.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 09, 2012, 12:22:33 PM
I saw some reverse math at Brad DeLong's site that said that Obama must have had an extraordinarily good sample on Sunday to account for the numbers Gallup was showing between the two 3-day breakouts and the 7-day option. Like, O +20.

Maybe people finally had a Kenny Rogers moment where they just got tired of putting up with Romney's crap. It's a bit like when Occupy started.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 09, 2012, 12:24:49 PM
Oh Gallup and your small print...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx

'Although Gallup's main focus is on seven-day rolling averages, a breakdown of interviewing over shorter periods can be helpful in understanding the short-term impact of events like conventions and debates. As Gallup reported Monday, Romney gained ground among registered voters in the immediate aftermath of his Oct. 3 debate, moving from a five-point deficit prior to the debate to a tie in the three days that immediately followed. Most of that gain was driven by substantial Romney leads in the Thursday and Friday tracking.

Since Saturday, however, Obama has regained a 50% to 45% edge among registered voters in interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday -- the same as his margin in the three days prior to the debate. Although these two days of interviewing involve relatively small sample sizes, they suggest that Romney's debate "bounce" may be fading.'


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 09, 2012, 12:26:34 PM
Maybe I'm whistling past the graveyard, but having lived through enough cycles with demoralized Dem voters and dysfunctional campaigns, the one area I don't worry about is a yawning RV/LV gap. The Obama campaign doesn't have 386 campaign offices in Ohio for people to hold signs.

(Obviously Romney has a bounce in the polls and his followers are super energized right now, I'm just sayin'.)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 09, 2012, 12:29:15 PM
Maybe I'm whistling past the graveyard, but having lived through enough cycles with demoralized Dem voters and dysfunctional campaigns, the one area I don't worry about is a yawning RV/LV gap. The Obama campaign doesn't have 386 campaign offices in Ohio for people to hold signs.

(Obviously Romney has a bounce in the polls and his followers are super energized right now, I'm just sayin'.)

Curiously in 2008 Obama's RV and LV numbers closely followed each other, McCain however suffered and had a significant gap between the two.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 09, 2012, 12:56:52 PM
Rasmussen

Obama 48 (unc)
Romney 48 (unc)

At this rate we may actually get a few days where Democratic spin doctors start talking highly of the Rasmuusen poll and Republicans disregard it in favor of polls like Pew and PPP/Dailykos!



Also, this is Sat-Sun-Mon, which means it doesn't include the great day Romney had on Friday.  I'd thought Obama would get a lead again with that day dropping off the tracker.

Idem

So if saturday was good for Obama considering the job report, Romney will be leading tomorrow in the ras track poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2012, 01:21:36 PM
DAY 1:

47-45 Romney

A key swing group making up nearly a third of voters, independents favor Romney over Obama 52%-34%. In 2008, Obama had a 52% to 44% edge among independents.

Polling period: 10/2 - 10/8
Margin of Error: +/- 3.5%
Sample Size: 797 likely voters (identified from 920 registered voters with party affiliation of 39% Dem, 31% GOP, 30% Ind.)

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on October 09, 2012, 01:27:09 PM
Good to have another tracking poll.. I think this one has been decent in the past?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 09, 2012, 01:48:36 PM
It's officially time to panic.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 09, 2012, 01:49:14 PM
RACE
White   
35%
56%
8%


3 polls now show Romney winning whites by 20 points.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on October 09, 2012, 01:57:41 PM
I have to say Lief, you panic awfully quickly.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 09, 2012, 02:36:16 PM
IBD is a far-right rag.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cinyc on October 09, 2012, 02:38:17 PM
Reuters-Ipsos (http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5815)

Obama 45% (-2)
Romney 45% (unc)

Among LVs. October 5-9.

Among RVs (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-poll-dailybre898148-20121009,0,3864025.story), Obama leads 45-42.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it. on October 09, 2012, 02:38:34 PM
I have to say Lief, you panic awfully quickly.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: NVGonzalez on October 09, 2012, 02:47:55 PM


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 09, 2012, 02:51:38 PM
D+8

Junk poll !


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: opebo on October 09, 2012, 02:53:11 PM
RACE
White   
35%
56%
8%


3 polls now show Romney winning whites by 20 points.

Proving MY point - racism is what Romney's winning upon.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cinyc on October 09, 2012, 03:01:12 PM
Proving MY point - racism is what Romney's winning upon.

Contrary to your belief, it is not racist to vote against Obama.  There are hundreds of reasons to do so that have absolutely nothing to do with race.  If everything is always about race, Obama wouldn't have been elected in the first place.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 09, 2012, 03:09:21 PM
Is this going to be a daily poll? if so shouldnt it be in the national tracking thread?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 09, 2012, 03:40:10 PM

Good one!  :)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 09, 2012, 03:41:11 PM
Apparently Obama was back to a 50-45 margin in RV in Gallup on Sunday and Monday, erasing Romney's debate bounce. We'll see if that holds.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 09, 2012, 04:33:56 PM
Apparently Obama was back to a 50-45 margin in RV in Gallup on Sunday and Monday, erasing Romney's debate bounce. We'll see if that holds.

Two problems.  No sourcing and registered voters.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 09, 2012, 04:40:56 PM
What do you mean "no sourcing"? And Gallup's likely voter screen is ridiculous. If they had had it in September, Romney would have likely been leading for most of the month.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on October 09, 2012, 06:48:50 PM
The RV polls are normalizing and LV polls are not. 

This is an enthusiasm gap.  Republicans were pumped up by the debate and Democrats were somewhat dismayed by Obama's performance.  Hence, when you screen them for your LV model, more Republicans are qualifying as LVs after the debate. 

I think a good chunk out of the swing is due to this. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 09, 2012, 06:55:51 PM
The RV polls are normalizing and LV polls are not. 

This is an enthusiasm gap.  Republicans were pumped up by the debate and Democrats were somewhat dismayed by Obama's performance.  Hence, when you screen them for your LV model, more Republicans are qualifying as LVs after the debate. 

I think a good chunk out of the swing is due to this. 

That is born out with Rasmussen's strongly approve/disapprove numbers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 09, 2012, 06:57:12 PM
What's interesting is that the big swing towards Romney seems to be more related to an LV swing, RVs are staying the same. The Gallup RV today is 49/46 or Obama +3, it was 49/45 (Obama +4) a week ago. The same is true for the Ipsos poll. While LV has gone from Obama+5 to tied, RV has remained exactly the same as Obama +3. This, along with the party ID switches seen in other polls, shows how what is changing is not people switching from Romney to Obama but a surge in Romney voter enthusiasm and a reduction in Obama voter enthusiasm. This is also born out by Obama approval remaining relatively stable over the week as well (and still in the 49/50 range).

So the question is: will this new enthusiasm gap be the new normal?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 10, 2012, 09:07:35 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney:  48 (u)

Obama:  47 (-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: GMantis on October 10, 2012, 09:09:29 AM
It seems that instead of the Romney bounce receding, it's a short lived Obama bounce that is receding.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 10, 2012, 09:23:10 AM
It seems that instead of the Romney bounce receding, it's a short lived Obama bounce that is receding.

Job number bounce is my guess.  It was a speed bump, but that was it.

The job numbers were as good as could be expected, but the underlying situation is that this was not an improvement over GWB.  Since taking office Obama has improved unemployment and job creation may not have kept pace with population growth.  The message is "Forward, to January 2009."


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on October 10, 2012, 10:57:05 AM
Interesting observations this morning on Nate Cohn's twitter feed. It seems that most of the shifts in Rasmussen's numbers in the past month can be accounted for by African-American voters moving back and forth between Obama and undecided. Right now, Ras has Af-Am voters going 85-3 for Obama, with 12% undecided (vs. 3% undecided among all other voters).
Make of that what you will.

https://twitter.com/electionate


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 10, 2012, 12:01:19 PM
OBAMA'S BACK

RV: Obama 50% (+1), Romney 45% (-1)
LV: Romney 48% (-1), Obama 48% (+1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 10, 2012, 12:01:45 PM
Gallup

RV

Obama-50(+1)
Romney-45(-1)

LV

Romney-48(-1)
Obama-48(+1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 10, 2012, 12:03:27 PM
OBAMA'S BACK

RV: Obama 50% (+1), Romney 45% (-1)
LV: Romney 48% (-1), Obama 48% (+1)

Groovy.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 10, 2012, 12:09:53 PM
Yeeees :)

I have to post this somewhere, so here you have:

()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 10, 2012, 01:29:20 PM
Day 2:

Romney 49
Obama 44


Great news! Obama continues his collapse with whites.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 10, 2012, 01:31:35 PM
Day 2:

Romney 49
Obama 44


Great news! Obama continues his collapse with whites.

On the same day Obama leads by 4 in Florida, 4 in Ohio, and Ras shows him up by double digits in New Mexico? I don't think so, IBD.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 10, 2012, 01:32:35 PM
It's a 6-day tracker though, with about 120 people each day.

And from Oct. 4 to Oct. 9 on this one.

So, Rasmussen and Gallup should have the more up-to-date numbers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on October 10, 2012, 01:41:04 PM
In 2008, they consistently had McCain doing better than everyone else, insisting that the race was still close up till the end, when they suddenly allocated 2/3 of the undecideds to Obama, bringing their results to the average of all other pollsters at that point, and hitting the final margin to the nearest tenth of a percent. They had similar results in 2000/2004 as well, with Republicans overperforming relative to other polls till the last minute, when undecideds swung to the Democrat.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/hitting_a_bullet_with_a_bullet.php?nr=1


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 10, 2012, 01:51:06 PM
Reuters-Ipsos (http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5815)

Obama 45% (-2)
Romney 45% (unc)

Among LVs. October 5-9.

Among RVs (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-usa-campaign-poll-dailybre898148-20121009,0,3864025.story), Obama leads 45-42.



Latest:


Romney 45 (unc)
Obama 44 (-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 10, 2012, 05:20:35 PM
Day 2:

Romney 49
Obama 44


Great news! Obama continues his collapse with whites.

R +2, O -1

This poll has a strong R lean, but the trending is what to watch.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ty440 on October 10, 2012, 05:44:11 PM
Look at this pollster's GOP bias all throughout 2008, then magically at the end a huge correction towards Obama.........I'm skeptical


()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 10, 2012, 06:51:31 PM
If this is a tracker, shouldn't this thread just be merged with the main tracking poll thread?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 10, 2012, 08:39:20 PM
So Gallup had Obama polling better yesterday than last Tuesday before the debate?  And everyone else (pending RAND?) had a further Romney gain.  Last Tuesday must have been abnormally good for Romney on Gallup?

Also, I would expect tomorrow to be Romney's polling peak on the trackers.  Last Thursday-Friday, when he probably led by 6+ start falling off this weekend.

Obama got about 10-15 days out of "the 47%" so it will be interesting to see what things look like pre-debate next week.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 10, 2012, 08:49:41 PM
If this is a tracker, shouldn't this thread just be merged with the main tracking poll thread?

^^^^


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 10, 2012, 09:24:19 PM
As I pointed out in another thread Gallups sample has non white voters increased by 5 points this week and it's 6% higher turnout model for non white voters than 2008.  Not believable at this point.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 10, 2012, 10:50:13 PM
Gallup job approval is (and always has been) a measure of all adults. By that measure it is still a little whiter than census data


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ill ind on October 11, 2012, 09:00:24 AM
  Rassmussen

  Obama 48 (+1)
  Romney 47 (-1)

  Ill_Ind


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 11, 2012, 12:11:02 PM
Gallup

RV
Obama: 48% (-2)
Romney: 46% (+1)

LV
Romney: 48%
Obama: 47% (-1)

Today the last pre-debate day of the sample dropped off.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 11, 2012, 01:02:36 PM


Latest:

Romney 47 (+2)
Obama 44 (unc)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 11, 2012, 01:10:28 PM
IBD/TIPP (Day 3):

47% Romney (-2)
46% Obama (+2)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 11, 2012, 01:43:36 PM
IBD/TIPP (Day 3):

47% Romney (-2)
46% Obama (+2)

lol...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 11, 2012, 02:52:46 PM

the true lol: party id: D +8


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 11, 2012, 02:55:14 PM
Rand poll: Obama 48,21 Romney: 46,37


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 11, 2012, 06:09:20 PM

They obviously must have had a bad pro-Romney sample in there.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on October 12, 2012, 04:40:58 AM
Rand poll: Obama 48,21 Romney: 46,37
Now I'm starting to get worried.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 12, 2012, 12:32:57 PM
Gallup

RV
Obama: 48% (-2)
Romney: 46% (+1)

LV
Romney: 48%
Obama: 47% (-1)

Today the last pre-debate day of the sample dropped off.


Gallup

RV
Obama: 48% (unc)
Romney: 46% (unc)

LV
Romney: 49% (+1)
Obama: 47% (unc)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 12, 2012, 12:35:51 PM
I just read that Obama's lead grew to 2.02% on RAND.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 12, 2012, 12:41:46 PM
I just read that Obama's lead grew to 2.02% on RAND.

Yup.

Obama-48.17
Romney-46.15


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 12, 2012, 12:55:59 PM
IBD/TIPP:

Obama: 46,4
Romney: 45,7

Romney leads independents by 9

party id: D +8


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 12, 2012, 12:57:59 PM

This is an improvement for Obama, actually.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 12, 2012, 01:13:03 PM

()

Conservatives reidentify as independents; pays a double bonus in opening a gap between Dems and Republicans AND lets Romney win independents easily.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 12, 2012, 03:20:21 PM
Reuters/Ipsos

Romney 46% (-1)
Obama 45% (+1)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/12/usa-campaign-idUSL1E8LCAY820121012


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 12, 2012, 03:31:40 PM
Reuters/Ipsos

Romney 46% (-1)
Obama 45% (+1)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/12/usa-campaign-idUSL1E8LCAY820121012

That poll actually contains some data from today, so if one were to read too much into this...then BIDEN BUMP!  Not that I believe that is the case


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 12, 2012, 03:46:25 PM
Reuters/Ipsos

Romney 46% (-1)
Obama 45% (+1)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/12/usa-campaign-idUSL1E8LCAY820121012

That poll actually contains some data from today, so if one were to read too much into this...then BIDEN BUMP!  Not that I believe that is the case

The Reuters write-up seemed to be pretty pro-Biden, but yeah it's too early to know anything really.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on October 12, 2012, 03:48:54 PM
I think the Democrats will get a small bump from this debate, not from swing voters, but Democrats moving from RV to LV.

This debate was about enthusiasm pumping, which Obama's dead performance last week killed what was building from the convention.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cinyc on October 12, 2012, 04:00:52 PM
That poll actually contains some data from today, so if one were to read too much into this...then BIDEN BUMP!  Not that I believe that is the case

Considering that almost all of the polling from yesterday was pre-debate (except for a handful of interviews on the west coast), that's doubtful.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 13, 2012, 03:48:52 AM
RAND Poll, October 12th

Obama-  48.75% (+.88)
Romney- 45.65% (-.50)

They also published results for the Big 3.
In Ohio
Obama - 39.01% (-.92)
Romney- 58.21% (+.89)

In Florida
Obama - 47.94% (+.IDK)
Romney- 44.71% (-2.96)

In Pennsylvania
Obama- 51.39% (+3.37)
Romney-45.71% (-2.31)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 13, 2012, 03:57:57 AM
Um... is that Ohio number right?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TrapperHawk on October 13, 2012, 04:01:30 AM

Yeah, I was about to say the same thing. Is it supposed to be Obama: 49.01% and Romney: 48.21%? That would make far more sense.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 13, 2012, 04:02:42 AM

Yeah, I was about to say the same thing. Is it supposed to be Obama: 49.01% and Romney: 48.21%? That would make far more sense.
Weird huh? They actually had Romney ahead during mid-late September when Obama was surging. It is actually 39.01.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TrapperHawk on October 13, 2012, 04:13:52 AM

Yeah, I was about to say the same thing. Is it supposed to be Obama: 49.01% and Romney: 48.21%? That would make far more sense.
Weird huh? They actually had Romney ahead during mid-late September when Obama was surging. It is actually 39.01.

That is odd. Obama losing, and Romney gaining, a point sounds about right. But Obama only getting 39%... yeah. Strange sample there.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on October 13, 2012, 05:29:47 AM
Out of 3500 people nationwide in their tracking poll, how many are going to be in Ohio? About 130. Now what has everybody been ever telling you about tiny subsamples?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 13, 2012, 11:42:39 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney: 49 (+1)
Omabam: 48 (+1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 13, 2012, 11:48:15 AM
Out of 3500 people nationwide in their tracking poll, how many are going to be in Ohio? About 130. Now what has everybody been ever telling you about tiny subsamples?

Yep. Obama probably isn't leading in Florida at the moment either...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 13, 2012, 12:09:25 PM
Gallup (likely):

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on October 13, 2012, 12:11:46 PM
Obama did gain a point on registered voters screen. Seems like a big Romney night dropped off today though, so I don't think this was a bad showing for Romney.

Gallup (likely):

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 13, 2012, 02:51:45 PM
IBD/TIPP is unchanged from yesterday, with Obama still leading by 0.7%.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Republic on October 13, 2012, 02:56:01 PM
Out of 3500 people nationwide in their tracking poll, how many are going to be in Ohio? About 130. Now what has everybody been ever telling you about tiny subsamples?

It must be accurate though; the results are at two decimal places!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 13, 2012, 11:05:30 PM
Gallup (likely):

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u

Gallup (registered):

Obama: 49, +1

Romney: 46, u


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 14, 2012, 12:22:24 AM
IBD/TIPP is unchanged from yesterday, with Obama still leading by 0.7%.

Obama has slashed the Independent deficit from 25 (LOL) to 8 in the latest release ...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 14, 2012, 11:33:36 AM
RAND

Obama-49.1
Romney-45.34


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 14, 2012, 11:43:16 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, -1


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 14, 2012, 12:18:22 PM
I think it's time to see some national polls again.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 14, 2012, 12:20:13 PM

Gallup (likely):

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 14, 2012, 12:38:36 PM
So RAND, Reuters and IBD have the debate bounce fading, but Ras and Gallup have no change.  Interesting.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 14, 2012, 01:07:22 PM
IBD/TIPP:

Obama: 46.7%
Romney: 46.0%

No change in the margin (0.7%) since yesterday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 14, 2012, 02:37:57 PM
So RAND, Reuters and IBD have the debate bounce fading, but Ras and Gallup have no change.  Interesting.

There was bobbing around on Gallup's registered voter numbers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 14, 2012, 06:11:55 PM
Ipsos/Reuters
Obama 46% (+1)
Romney 45% (-1)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/14/us-usa-campaign-debate-idUSBRE89D0IW20121014?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=574655


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 14, 2012, 06:43:54 PM
So now Obama is leading in 3 trackers and trailing in 2. This is quite the close one


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 14, 2012, 06:47:19 PM
So now Obama is leading in 3 trackers and trailing in 2. This is quite the close one

It's really not even that close considering the Republican leanings of the 2 he's losing.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 14, 2012, 06:52:18 PM
It's really high time that pollsters like NBC/WSJ, ABC/WaPo, CNN, YouGov, etc. weigh in again on the national numbers. Basically all we've gotten since the debate are trackers and that Pew poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 14, 2012, 09:19:29 PM
It's really high time that pollsters like NBC/WSJ, ABC/WaPo, CNN, YouGov, etc. weigh in again on the national numbers. Basically all we've gotten since the debate are trackers and that Pew poll.

Agreed.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 14, 2012, 09:37:05 PM
I think they're probably waiting now until after the debate...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 14, 2012, 11:17:57 PM
It's really high time that pollsters like NBC/WSJ, ABC/WaPo, CNN, YouGov, etc. weigh in again on the national numbers. Basically all we've gotten since the debate are trackers and that Pew poll.

Agreed.
Well one of them have, and we're up 49-47 in the ABC/WaPo poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 15, 2012, 12:38:40 AM
It's really high time that pollsters like NBC/WSJ, ABC/WaPo, CNN, YouGov, etc. weigh in again on the national numbers. Basically all we've gotten since the debate are trackers and that Pew poll.

Agreed.
Well one of them have, and we're up 49-47 in the ABC/WaPo poll.

49-46 actually.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 15, 2012, 04:24:54 AM
Little Obama 'surge' on RAND continues

Obama 49.56 (+0.46)
Romney 44.94 (-0.40)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 15, 2012, 06:39:58 AM
Little Obama 'surge' on RAND continues

Obama 49.56 (+0.46)
Romney 44.94 (-0.40)

Just returning to pre-debate status. The ABC poll showed the same thing after all.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 15, 2012, 08:44:27 AM
UPI shows Romney 49, Obama 46, if we're talking newspaper polls in general.  That was unchanged. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on October 15, 2012, 08:59:03 AM
The RCP average has, pending Gallup, reverted to a tie.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 15, 2012, 09:03:04 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  48, +1


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 15, 2012, 09:09:45 AM
The RCP average has, pending Gallup, reverted to a tie.

Curiously they didn't include last weeks O+3 YouGov poll dewspite YouGov having been polling since 2004 yet new outfits get included. If they did, then Obama would probably have squeezed ahead.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 15, 2012, 09:13:31 AM
The RCP average has, pending Gallup, reverted to a tie.

Curiously they didn't include last weeks O+3 YouGov poll dewspite YouGov having been polling since 2004 yet new outfits get included. If they did, then Obama would probably have squeezed ahead.

They tend to cherry pick in order to help their guy.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 15, 2012, 09:14:35 AM
I think they just flat-out reject internet polls.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pbrower2a on October 15, 2012, 11:38:05 AM
UPI shows Romney 49, Obama 46, if we're talking newspaper polls in general.  That was unchanged. 

From Wiki:

Quote
UPI was purchased in May 2000 by the Unification Church's media corporation, News World Communications, which, at the time, also owned the Washington Times and newspapers in South Korea, Japan, and South America. The next day, UPI's White House correspondent, Helen Thomas, resigned her position, after working for UPI 57 years.

In 2007 as part of a restructuring to keep UPI in business and profitable, management cut 11 staff from its Washington D.C. office and no longer has a reporter in the White House press corps or a bureau covering the United Nations. UPI spokespersons and press releases said the company would be focusing instead on expanding operations in the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa, and reporting on security threats, intelligence and energy issues. In 2008, UPI began UPIU, a journalism mentoring platform for students and journalism schools, that allows recent college graduates to post their work on the site, but does not pay for stories.

As of March 2011, the UPI.com website reports that the organization is headquartered in Washington, D.C., with other addresses in Seoul, South Korea; Beirut, Lebanon; Tokyo, Japan; Santiago, Chile; and Hong Kong, China.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UPI

It isn't what it used to be -- that's for sure:

Quote
While much of normal news agency work is little publicized, many UP/UPI news staffers did gain fame, either while with the agency or in later careers. They included journalists, news executives, novelists and high government officials. Among them were Walter Cronkite, David Brinkley, Edwin Newman, Harrison Salisbury, several of the core members of Edward R. Murrow's famed Murrow's Boys: Charles Collingwood, Eric Sevareid, Richard C. Hottelet, Howard K. Smith, and Larry LeSueur. The founding director of CBS News, Paul White, for whom the top award given by the broadcast news directors organization Radio Television Digital News Association (RTDNA) is named, Kent Cooper, who later became the longtime GM of rival Associated Press, early ABC News president Elmer Lower, Raymond Clapper, originator of the term "smoked-filled room", Merriman Smith, Helen Thomas, Marie Colvin, Martha Gellhorn, Kate Webb, Henry Tilton Gorrell, Seymour Hersh, Lucien Carr, Neil Sheehan, Brit Hume, Keith Olbermann, New York Times columnists Thomas Friedman and Gail Collins, Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen, sportswriter and Untouchables co-author Oscar Fraley, author H. Allen Smith, military author Joe Galloway, Saigon evacuation photographer Hubert van Es, photographer Stan Stearns,1970s White House photographer David Hume Kennerly, White House spokesmen George Reedy, Ron Nessen and Larry Speakes, longtime Las Vegas bureau manager Myram Borders, onetime CIA Director Richard Helms, who interviewed Adolf Hitler for United Press during the 1936 Olympics, diplomat Edward M. Korry, former UP correspondent to Moscow Eugene Lyons, C-SPAN founder Brian Lamb, ex-Dow Jones CEO Les Hinton, 1980's-90's Singapore President Wee Kim Wee and novelists Allen Drury, Tony Hillerman and Daniel Silva. Veteran foreign correspondent Arnaud de Borchgrave worked for UP / UPI both early and late in his career, some fifty years apart. Naked City photographer Weegee and 60 Minutes creator and producer Don Hewitt worked for UP Newspictures predecessor Acme Newsphotos.

UPI reporters and photographers have won ten Pulitzer Prizes: Russell Jones (International Reporting, 1957), Andrew Lopez (News Photography, 1960), Yasushi Nagao (News Photography, 1961), Merriman Smith (National Reporting, 1964), Kyoichi Sawada (News Photography, 1966), Toshio Sakai (Feature Photography, 1968), Lucinda Franks and Thomas Powers (National Reporting, 1971), and David Hume Kennerly (Feature Photography, 1972). John H. Blair (spot news photography) a special assignment photographer for UPI, 1978; An originally unnamed UPI photographer whose identity was withheld because of risk in revolutionary Iran. (spot news photography), 1980. Decades later, the photographer of "Firing Squad in Iran" was identified as Jahangir Razmi of Ettela'at, Iran.

Same source.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 15, 2012, 12:14:31 PM
Gallup shows no changes at all today on anything. (LV: R+2, RV: O+2, Obama Approval: +1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 15, 2012, 01:24:07 PM
Tipp
(10/09-10/14)

Obama: 46,9
Romney: 46,6

party id: D +7


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 15, 2012, 01:37:58 PM
There you go. :)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161683.0


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 15, 2012, 01:56:44 PM
The RCP average somehow found .1% for Romney so he could grab the "lead" back. lol.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 15, 2012, 02:26:17 PM
The Romney debate bounce continues to fade in Reuters/Ipsos:

Obama 47% (+1)
Romney 45% (nc)

Of course RCP doesn't include this poll in its average, otherwise Obama would pull back into the lead today.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on October 15, 2012, 02:33:07 PM
The Romney debate bounce continues to fade in Reuters/Ipsos:

Obama 47% (+1)
Romney 45% (nc)

Of course RCP doesn't include this poll in its average, otherwise Obama would pull back into the lead today.
RCP would seriously add to its credibility if it had a "methodology" page for its averages.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 15, 2012, 02:50:21 PM
I think RCP just excludes internet polls


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 15, 2012, 03:00:25 PM
The Romney debate bounce continues to fade in Reuters/Ipsos:

Obama 47% (+1)
Romney 45% (nc)

Of course RCP doesn't include this poll in its average, otherwise Obama would pull back into the lead today.

when Romney was leading, you said nothing...  Ipsos is not a very ggod pollster and has samples favorising democrats by big margin.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 15, 2012, 03:04:03 PM
There you go. :)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161683.0

lol no I prefer party id sorry. My great experience on this forum you know...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 15, 2012, 04:56:56 PM
RAND poll
Obama 49.56
Romney 44.94

It continues to show Romney's bounce fading. The results are around where they were before the Obama/Romney debate.

Of course we still dont know if their methodology makes any sense at all, but they have nice graphs and lots of decimal places so it has to be good!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 15, 2012, 05:05:10 PM
So Obama leads two tracking polls today (+2 and +5), Romney leads two (+1 and +2) and one is a tie.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 16, 2012, 03:18:02 AM
RAND Poll (Obama +5.15)
Obama- 49.66% (+.1)
Romney-44.51% (-.53)

The Debate bounce has officially faded on RAND. Romney is back to his pre-debate levels of support. Just waiting on Rasmussen and Gallup.
Anyone know why RAND Polls aren't included in the RCP Average? It's not an Internet poll, and they seem to be including the IBD-TIPP Daily Tracker in their average. Seems pretty wierd to me.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 16, 2012, 03:55:28 AM
RAND Poll (Obama +5.15)
Obama- 49.66% (+.1)
Romney-44.51% (-.53)

The Debate bounce has officially faded on RAND. Romney is back to his pre-debate levels of support. Just waiting on Rasmussen and Gallup.
Anyone know why RAND Polls aren't included in the RCP Average? It's not an Internet poll, and they seem to be including the IBD-TIPP Daily Tracker in their average. Seems pretty wired to me.

Interesting but extremely unorthodox methodology.

Plus, showing better than average results for Obama is no way to get yourself on RCP.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 16, 2012, 09:09:01 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, -1


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 16, 2012, 12:02:22 PM
Reuter/Ipsos

Obama 46% (-1)
Romney 43% (-2)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 16, 2012, 12:06:42 PM
Gallup

Romney 50 (+2)

Obama 46 (-2)

Obama approval up to 49%A/45%D


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Devils30 on October 16, 2012, 12:08:29 PM
The polls have officially stopped making sense. How the hell can Obama be winning Ohio, tied in VA, CO and down 4 nationally?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 16, 2012, 12:09:23 PM
Gallup

Romney 50 (+2)

Obama 46 (-2)

Obama approval up to 49%A/45%D

I'd love to know what the RV is on this.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 16, 2012, 12:09:50 PM
Gallup

Romney 50 (+2)

Obama 46 (-2)

Obama approval up to 49%A/45%D

Tied 47/47.

I'd love to know what the RV is on this.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 16, 2012, 12:10:23 PM
The polls have officially stopped making sense. How the hell can Obama be winning Ohio, tied in VA, CO and down 4 nationally?

Gallup polls have favored the GOP throughout the campaign.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 16, 2012, 12:10:54 PM
Gallup (Likely)

Romney:  50, +1

Obama:  46, -1

Obama Approval:

Approve:  49, +1

Disapprove:  45, -2


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 16, 2012, 12:11:50 PM
Reuter/Ipsos

Obama 46% (-1)
Romney 43% (-2)
11% undecided, just three weeks from Election Day?

Not sure I believe that.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 16, 2012, 12:17:37 PM
The polls have officially stopped making sense. How the hell can Obama be winning Ohio, tied in VA, CO and down 4 nationally?

Actually he's losing in VA and CO polls.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: DrScholl on October 16, 2012, 12:20:40 PM
Gallup doesn't always fit with the state polls and can be all over the place. Other trackers don't seem to be lining up with what Gallup is finding.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 16, 2012, 12:21:52 PM
Reuter/Ipsos

Obama 46% (-1)
Romney 43% (-2)
11% undecided, just three weeks from Election Day?

Not sure I believe that.


Obama has been cut down to the 47%ers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cavalcade on October 16, 2012, 12:26:43 PM
Romney has actually been improving in Gallup as post-debate days have dropped off the sample.  The result is that Gallup is looking awfully R now- did they re-fix their sample after that criticism over increasing cell phone and minority weighting?

In any case, it looks like Romney leads the national PV going into tonight's debate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 16, 2012, 12:31:43 PM
The result is that Gallup is looking awfully R now- did they re-fix their sample after that criticism over increasing cell phone and minority weighting?

I think that explains it. In the process, Gallup made their own polling less accurate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 16, 2012, 01:57:32 PM
IBD/TIPP (http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx)
Obama 47%
Romney 46%

It was tied yesterday.

So Obama improved in three tracker todays (Reuters/Ipsos, IBD/TIPP and RAND) and Romney improved in the other two (Rasmussen, Gallup).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 16, 2012, 02:01:10 PM
Gallup is odd.

Would have been a decent day for Obama if not for that and the Dailykos/PPP poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 16, 2012, 02:02:23 PM
IBD/TIPP (http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx)
Obama 47%
Romney 46%

It was tied yesterday.

So Obama improved in three tracker todays (Reuters/Ipsos, IBD/TIPP and RAND) and Romney improved in the other two (Rasmussen, Gallup).

Lots of red faces at PPP right now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 16, 2012, 02:13:02 PM
What is clear now is that there are some outlier polls. What isn't clear is which ones are the outliers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Beet on October 16, 2012, 02:14:07 PM
Gallup is odd.

Would have been a decent day for Obama if not for that and the Dailykos/PPP poll.

I know what you mean, but the 'day' doesn't start until 9 pm est.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 16, 2012, 02:59:03 PM
In the words of Nate Silver 'the polls have stopped making any sense... again'


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 16, 2012, 04:21:23 PM
The Gallup poll shows that relative to 2008, Obama has collapsed in the south, fallen some in the east, and is stable in the Midwest and West. This is consistent with polls showing him losing Florida and tightening in Pa., and would seem to indicate trouble in Va. But it would also explain the OH/WI/IA/NV firewall he's got going. Remember when Obama polled reasonable well in TN? That's gone.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 16, 2012, 04:40:20 PM
The Gallup poll shows that relative to 2008, Obama has collapsed in the south, fallen some in the east, and is stable in the Midwest and West. This is consistent with polls showing him losing Florida and tightening in Pa., and would seem to indicate trouble in Va. But it would also explain the OH/WI/IA/NV firewall he's got going. Remember when Obama polled reasonable well in TN? That's gone.

Too bad nobody ever polls TN, so we could know for sure. :P


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 17, 2012, 09:12:02 AM
Obama reverses a Romney-lead in the Rasmussen Swing State tracking poll and now leads:

50-47 (still pre-debate though)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll

Romney leads 49-48 in the overall daily tracking poll (Obama gains 1% from yesterday's release).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 17, 2012, 11:57:29 AM
RAND
Obama 49.07
Romney 45.16

That's about a 1 point bump up for Romney, pretty big for one day in this poll


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 17, 2012, 11:59:38 AM
RAND
Obama 49.07
Romney 45.16

That's about a 1 point bump up for Romney, pretty big for one day in this poll

I'm assuming this is before last night's debate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 17, 2012, 12:05:48 PM
Romney now leads by 6 with Gallup


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on October 17, 2012, 12:05:54 PM
Gallup:

LV - Romney 51(+1)/45(-1)

RV - Romney 48(+1)/46(-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: dspNY on October 17, 2012, 12:07:51 PM
Gallup most only be calling voters south of the Mason Dixon line or something...if that were the case Obama would be down 4-5 pts in Ohio


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 17, 2012, 12:08:53 PM



Glorious news!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 17, 2012, 12:09:17 PM
It makes me wonder, did something amazing happen for Romney on Sunday. We have the Gallup poll suddenly lurch to Romney and the PPP poll had that big pro Romney Sunday sample.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 17, 2012, 12:13:36 PM
Gallup:

LV - Romney 51(+1)/45(-1)

RV - Romney 48(+1)/46(-1)

Dear lord, how strict is their LV screen? Gallup is getting pretty close to jumping the shark.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 17, 2012, 12:21:26 PM
Gallup:

LV - Romney 51(+1)/45(-1)

RV - Romney 48(+1)/46(-1)

Dear lord, how strict is their LV screen? Gallup is getting pretty close to jumping the shark.


Apparently Obama leads in all their 'regions' except the South where Romney has a something like a 22 point lead. As a result Romney leads nationally despite trailing everywhere else.

Here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 17, 2012, 12:23:19 PM
I expect this race to be virtually tied by the end of the week. Looks like we could have a photo-finish for the popular vote.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pa2011 on October 17, 2012, 12:24:34 PM
So Gallup says near landslide while most state polling, and the other trackers, say a close race or slight Obama edge. One thing is for sure, think we can all agree Romney isn't likely to win by 6 points nationally. Maybe 51 to 49, or even 52 to 48, but can't really envision Obama not breaking 48.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 17, 2012, 01:32:56 PM
IBD/TIPP

Obama 46.8 (-.5)
Romney 45.4 (-.4)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 17, 2012, 01:42:59 PM
So.

RAND - Obama +4
Reuters - Obama  +3
TIPP - Obama +2
Rass - Romney +1
Gallup - Romney +6

Quite a spread.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 17, 2012, 01:52:59 PM
Well I updated TIPP, it is actually Obama 1.4 so rounded down to Obama+1.

The avg of all tracking polls concluded yesterday would be Obama +0.1




Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 17, 2012, 02:18:37 PM
I guess Gallup isn't expecting black people in the south to vote in this one...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 17, 2012, 02:48:27 PM
I do wonder if Gallup is falling back into its bad habits from 2010.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on October 17, 2012, 10:08:20 PM
Gallup:

LV - Romney 51(+1)/45(-1)

RV - Romney 48(+1)/46(-1)

Dear lord, how strict is their LV screen? Gallup is getting pretty close to jumping the shark.


Apparently Obama leads in all their 'regions' except the South where Romney has a something like a 22 point lead. As a result Romney leads nationally despite trailing everywhere else.

Here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx

There's no way Romney is over 60% in the South. Romney will be lucky to get over 60% in three states (AL, LA, and AR) down there, plus those aren't the states where the population lies. Romney isn't getting anywhere close to 60% in Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, and Florida (possibly approaching 60% in Texas, but I doubt it).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on October 18, 2012, 02:05:51 AM
So.

RAND - Obama +4
Reuters - Obama  +3
TIPP - Obama +2
Rass - Romney +1
Gallup - Romney +6

Quite a spread.

So would the race basically be O+2, at the moment?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 18, 2012, 02:14:36 AM
Apparently there was a Reuters/Ipsos poll today, including some interviews from post-debate, though it's a 5-day tracking poll so at most 1/5 would be post-debate.

LV
Obama: 47% (+1)
Romney: 44% (+1)

Obama is up 46-40 with registered voters and leads by 12% with early voters, though the margin of error is pretty huge.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Gustaf on October 18, 2012, 02:18:06 AM
So.

RAND - Obama +4
Reuters - Obama  +3
TIPP - Obama +2
Rass - Romney +1
Gallup - Romney +6

Quite a spread.

So would the race basically be O+2, at the moment?

That is not what that averages out to. It'd be Obama +0.4. Which essentially means a tie.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 18, 2012, 04:13:40 AM
So.

RAND - Obama +4
Reuters - Obama  +3
TIPP - Obama +2
Rass - Romney +1
Gallup - Romney +6

Quite a spread.

So would the race basically be O+2, at the moment?

That is not what that averages out to. It'd be Obama +0.4. Which essentially means a tie.

I'd be inclined to think it is fair to drop the two outliers (RAND and Gallup) which would give Obama a 1.3% lead. Throwing YouGov in there which was O+1 would give the same result. Given Rassmussens favourability to Romney if you're partisan and chuck that out then Obama's lead is 2%

Speaking of potential outliers here's RAND!

Obama 50.03 (+0.96)
Romney 44.34 (-0.82)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 18, 2012, 04:18:35 AM
So basically.... nobody knows what the hell is going on. At least the polls are reflecting the community.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: opebo on October 18, 2012, 05:53:52 AM
So basically.... nobody knows what the hell is going on. At least the polls are reflecting the community.

No one knows, but generally it is tied.  What we really don' t know is if Romney's bump has really stalled out and whether there will be a lesser counter bump for Obama.  I suspect this is the case.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 18, 2012, 08:57:50 AM
Ras tracker;

Romney 49 (+1)
Obama 47 (unc)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 18, 2012, 09:01:51 AM

Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 18, 2012, 09:08:50 AM
Ras swing state tracker

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 48 (-2)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 18, 2012, 09:13:18 AM
Ras swing state tracker

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 48 (-2)

On 7 days

"nearly all of the responses in the latest survey come from before the second presidential debate Tuesday night"

Don't panic, democrats


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on October 18, 2012, 11:16:48 AM
Ras swing state tracker

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 48 (-2)

On 7 days

"nearly all of the responses in the latest survey come from before the second presidential debate Tuesday night"

Don't panic, democrats

Y'know, I think they can figure that out for themselves, which accounts for the distinct lack of panic.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 18, 2012, 12:02:16 PM
There is now a six-point gap between registered and likely voters according to Gallup.

RV
Romney 48%
Obama 47% (+1)

LV
Romney 52% (+1)
Obama 45%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 18, 2012, 12:02:34 PM
Gallup

Romney 52 (+1)
Obama 45 (unc)






Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 18, 2012, 12:03:49 PM
I think it's time Gallup gets flushed onto the scrap heap of history.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on October 18, 2012, 12:04:32 PM
And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on October 18, 2012, 12:06:45 PM
And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.

It's certainly unprecedented.  The likely voters screen must be very strict. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on October 18, 2012, 12:09:52 PM
And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.

It's certainly unprecedented.  The likely voters screen must be very strict. 

They also had Romney opening up a 22+ point lead in the South, but losing all the other regions... seems unlikely.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 18, 2012, 12:10:25 PM
And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.

It's certainly unprecedented.  The likely voters screen must be very strict. 

Indeed. No way 5% of voters approve an incumbent president and then go out and vote for his challenger.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 18, 2012, 12:12:51 PM
Indeed. No way 5% of voters approve an incumbent president and then go out and vote for his challenger.

Probably the only way for an incumbent President to lose with a 50% approval rating is if the challenger is a national hero - not a spoiled, job-killing crybaby like Romney.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 18, 2012, 12:12:58 PM
And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.

It's certainly unprecedented.  The likely voters screen must be very strict. 

Indeed. No way 5% of voters approve an incumbent president and then go out and vote for his challenger.

We can do better?  

Just throwing it out there, not advocating it.  


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 18, 2012, 12:14:09 PM
And Obama at 50% approval rating? Doesn't make any sense.

It's certainly unprecedented.  The likely voters screen must be very strict. 

They also had Romney opening up a 22+ point lead in the South, but losing all the other regions... seems unlikely.


Also they have Obama leading by only 4% in the Northeast - even though he's winning every state in the Northeast by more than 4%.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 18, 2012, 12:14:14 PM
The tracking polls are continuing to diverge into craziness, but it is hard to dismiss Gallup entirely. It is weird that the guy who is 7 points down on Gallup 20 days before the election is still considered the favorite.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on October 18, 2012, 12:20:42 PM
The tracking polls are continuing to diverge into craziness, but it is hard to dismiss Gallup entirely. It is weird that the guy who is 7 points down on Gallup 20 days before the election is still considered the favorite.

It's even more weird to have an incumbent with 50% approval rating losing the election by 7. One of these numbers doesn't make sense, or both. But they can't be both right. If Obama is at or around 50% on November 6th, he will be most likely reelected.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: dirks on October 18, 2012, 12:24:35 PM
Romney +7!!! in Gallup

Quite the debate bounce for Obama


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 18, 2012, 12:24:53 PM
The tracking polls are continuing to diverge into craziness, but it is hard to dismiss Gallup entirely. It is weird that the guy who is 7 points down on Gallup 20 days before the election is still considered the favorite.

It's even more weird to have an incumbent with 50% approval rating losing the election by 7. One of these numbers doesn't make sense, or both. But they can't be both right. If Obama is at or around 50% on November 6th, he will be most likely reelected.

That should be true but bear in mind that Gallup's approval rating number is for all adults, which has always been much more Dem friendly. Basically Gallup's assessment of the country is that if they all voted, Obama would win, but a huge chunk of dem friendly citizens cant be bothered to register and many of those who do still wont bother voting


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 18, 2012, 12:25:04 PM
JA is adults, LV is well, LV. That's probably why.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 18, 2012, 12:27:29 PM
A brand new bubble gum bustin' Zogby poll just came out showing Obama up by 4 in Florida. No way he's doing 11 points better there than nationwide.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on October 18, 2012, 12:28:05 PM
Didn't Gallup predict the Democrats would lose the house by double digit margins in 2010 using their "traditional" likely voter model? Are they still using that model this year?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on October 18, 2012, 12:29:03 PM
The tracking polls are continuing to diverge into craziness, but it is hard to dismiss Gallup entirely. It is weird that the guy who is 7 points down on Gallup 20 days before the election is still considered the favorite.

It's even more weird to have an incumbent with 50% approval rating losing the election by 7. One of these numbers doesn't make sense, or both. But they can't be both right. If Obama is at or around 50% on November 6th, he will be most likely reelected.

That should be true but bear in mind that Gallup's approval rating number is for all adults, which has always been much more Dem friendly. Basically Gallup's assessment of the country is that if they all voted, Obama would win, but a huge chunk of dem friendly citizens cant be bothered to register and many of those who do still wont bother voting

Still. No way that Obama has a +6 approval rating and is losing the election by 7.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 18, 2012, 12:32:17 PM
Didn't Gallup predict the Democrats would lose the house by double digit margins in 2010 using their "traditional" likely voter model? Are they still using that model this year?

Yeah, Gallup was off by nine points in 2010 with their LV model.

Even Silver doesn't use their LV numbers for his model.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 18, 2012, 12:33:02 PM
Okay, +7 is the definition of an outlier when you look at other recent polls.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 18, 2012, 12:34:09 PM
At this point I dont know what to believe with the polling. This year there are supposed to be very few undecideds and yet we are seeing polls diverge not consolidate as we get closer to the end. It is just weird. Of course it is a cherry pickers dream. One can pick a set of recent polls showing EV and PV victories for either candidate


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: dirks on October 18, 2012, 12:35:35 PM
aren't zogby polls just internet polls? usually junk


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 18, 2012, 01:00:37 PM
PPP launched their own 3 day tracker today

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-romney-tied-nationally.html

Obama 48
Romney 48


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 18, 2012, 01:02:46 PM
I really, really think (even if Obama loses) that Gallup will end up with egg on its face again.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 18, 2012, 01:02:56 PM
Yeah, that sounds about right.

The race is tied or a slight lead for Mitt at the moment.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 18, 2012, 01:07:04 PM
PPP launched their own 3 day tracker today

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-romney-tied-nationally.html

Obama 48
Romney 48

Romney wins independents by 5.

Party id: D+5 (was D+2 in their last poll)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 18, 2012, 01:08:42 PM
D+5 sounds about right.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 18, 2012, 01:09:52 PM
A brand new bubble gum bustin' Zogby poll just came out showing Obama up by 4 in Florida. No way he's doing 11 points better there than nationwide.

It's Zogby.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on October 18, 2012, 01:11:05 PM
A brand new bubble gum bustin' Zogby poll just came out showing Obama up by 4 in Florida. No way he's doing 11 points better there than nationwide.

It's Zogby.
It's Bandit.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Andrew1 on October 18, 2012, 01:11:42 PM
Has any public poll this year given Romney a lead of 7 points?

Obama actually gained a point on Gallup's RV poll today, while Romney gained a point among LV. Their LV model must be at fault.

Romney is only +1 on Gallup's RV poll, that's roughly where it was for the whole of August, when they polled RV only.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 18, 2012, 01:14:09 PM
I really, really think (even if Obama loses) that Gallup will end up with egg on its face again.

They did the last time, but in the other direction.

I think it just be a very pro-Romney sample skewed everything. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 18, 2012, 01:21:31 PM
IBD/TIPP: Tied

Romney 46 (unc)
Obama 46 (-1)




Bounce! Bounce! Bounce I say!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Dumbo on October 18, 2012, 01:23:05 PM
I hope that Romney wins the popular vote, maybe 52 - 45.
But Obama wins the Electoral Vote with 271. It is time
that the Republicans know how much it hurts if your candidate
is supported by the majority but not elected.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas on October 18, 2012, 01:26:53 PM
I hope that Romney wins the popular vote, maybe 52 - 45.
But Obama wins the Electoral Vote with 271. It is time
that the Republicans know how much it hurts if your candidate
is supported by the majority but not elected.

That doesn't seem like a thing you'd want if you actually want Obama to achieve anything for the next four years.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 18, 2012, 01:32:26 PM
I hope that Romney wins the popular vote, maybe 52 - 45.
But Obama wins the Electoral Vote with 271. It is time
that the Republicans know how much it hurts if your candidate
is supported by the majority but not elected.

impossible to win by 7 and lose again the electoral college...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 18, 2012, 01:34:22 PM
Once again, if you want to believe the Gallup poll that Mitt Romney is leading by 7% nationally, then you're going to have to not believe basically every single poll of every single state we've gotten in the past week. There is literally no evidence, other than the Gallup tracking poll, that Mitt Romney is leading by 7% or anything close to it.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 18, 2012, 01:40:27 PM
Once again, if you want to believe the Gallup poll that Mitt Romney is leading by 7% nationally, then you're going to have to not believe basically every single poll of every single state we've gotten in the past week. There is literally no evidence, other than the Gallup tracking poll, that Mitt Romney is leading by 7% or anything close to it.

And PPP's 4 point lead (based solely on a really good day for Romney) has now been superseded by their new poll. So we are left with outliers which if they look like outliers, usually are.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: LastVoter on October 18, 2012, 01:48:27 PM
I hope that Romney wins the popular vote, maybe 52 - 45.
But Obama wins the Electoral Vote with 271. It is time
that the Republicans know how much it hurts if your candidate
is supported by the majority but not elected.

That doesn't seem like a thing you'd want if you actually want Obama to achieve anything for the next four years.
Why would we want more neoliberalism?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 18, 2012, 01:49:19 PM
It's possible that Sunday/Monday was just epically good for Romney all around and that's what's driving the trackers.  Still, it doesn't look good for an Obama debate bounce.  3 out of 5 have Romney gaining slightly.  RAND looks good for Obama, but it's almost as far off in its own world as Gallup.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 18, 2012, 01:54:38 PM
Only 1/7 of Gallup is post-debate, only 1/6 of the IBD poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the Rasmussen poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the PPP poll is post-debate (and they said that Obama gained significantly on their Wednesday interviews). Too early to tell.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on October 18, 2012, 01:57:00 PM
Actually the quote from PPP is "There was not a ton of day to day movement in the first 3 days of the national tracker, but Wednesday after the debate was Obama's best"

So I don't think that can be called a significant gain on Wednesday.. time will tell..

Gallup does appear to be an outlier right now though.. not buying that Romney is ahead 7 right now, no way.


Only 1/7 of Gallup is post-debate, only 1/6 of the IBD poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the Rasmussen poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the PPP poll is post-debate (and they said that Obama gained significantly on their Wednesday interviews). Too early to tell.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 18, 2012, 02:00:03 PM
Actually the quote from PPP is "There was not a ton of day to day movement in the first 3 days of the national tracker, but Wednesday after the debate was Obama's best"

So I don't think that can be called a significant gain on Wednesday.. time will tell..


Gallup does appear to be an outlier right now though.. not buying that Romney is ahead 7 right now, no way.


Only 1/7 of Gallup is post-debate, only 1/6 of the IBD poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the Rasmussen poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the PPP poll is post-debate (and they said that Obama gained significantly on their Wednesday interviews). Too early to tell.

Mitt was leading by 4 in their national poll last week, the race is tied now at 48-48.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 18, 2012, 02:12:47 PM
Actually the quote from PPP is "There was not a ton of day to day movement in the first 3 days of the national tracker, but Wednesday after the debate was Obama's best"

So I don't think that can be called a significant gain on Wednesday.. time will tell..


Gallup does appear to be an outlier right now though.. not buying that Romney is ahead 7 right now, no way.


Only 1/7 of Gallup is post-debate, only 1/6 of the IBD poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the Rasmussen poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the PPP poll is post-debate (and they said that Obama gained significantly on their Wednesday interviews). Too early to tell.

Mitt was leading by 4 in their national poll last week, the race is tied now at 48-48.



because change in their party id: D+2 to D+5...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 18, 2012, 02:14:46 PM
()

PPP. Does. Not. Weigh. By. Party. ID.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 18, 2012, 02:15:01 PM
Actually the quote from PPP is "There was not a ton of day to day movement in the first 3 days of the national tracker, but Wednesday after the debate was Obama's best"

So I don't think that can be called a significant gain on Wednesday.. time will tell..


Gallup does appear to be an outlier right now though.. not buying that Romney is ahead 7 right now, no way.


Only 1/7 of Gallup is post-debate, only 1/6 of the IBD poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the Rasmussen poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the PPP poll is post-debate (and they said that Obama gained significantly on their Wednesday interviews). Too early to tell.

Mitt was leading by 4 in their national poll last week, the race is tied now at 48-48.



because change in their party id: D+2 to D+5...

Do we have to explain party ID to you again?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on October 18, 2012, 02:17:51 PM
Umengus and his Umengites ruin every polling thread. :(


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on October 18, 2012, 02:21:26 PM
Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on October 18, 2012, 02:43:28 PM
Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.

That would be...another bad day for Obama

This debate bounce for Romney is a pleasant surprise.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on October 18, 2012, 02:47:09 PM
Gallup is literally such an insane outlier that either

A) This race is somehow turning into a Romney blowout and only Gallup is noticing.

or

B) Gallup is heading toward irrelevancy.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on October 18, 2012, 02:47:46 PM
Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.

That would be...another bad day for Obama

This debate bounce for Romney is a pleasant surprise.

Pretty much none of the other polls corroborate this supposed bounce. Taking the Gallup poll at face value is nothing more than hackery.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 18, 2012, 02:53:57 PM
()

PPP. Does. Not. Weigh. By. Party. ID.

and it's the problem...there is a correlation between the number of democrats and the obama result. Just a fact.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 18, 2012, 02:54:52 PM
Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.

That would be...another bad day for Obama

This debate bounce for Romney is a pleasant surprise.

Pretty much none of the other polls corroborate this supposed bounce. Taking the Gallup poll at face value is nothing more than hackery.

And in all fairness, we are not seeing any debate bounce on other polls, though I think it is too early.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 18, 2012, 02:55:36 PM
()

PPP. Does. Not. Weigh. By. Party. ID.

and it's the problem...there is a correlation between the number of democrats and the obama result. Just a fact.

Jesus.........


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on October 18, 2012, 03:02:26 PM
Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.

That would be...another bad day for Obama

This debate bounce for Romney is a pleasant surprise.

Pretty much none of the other polls corroborate this supposed bounce. Taking the Gallup poll at face value is nothing more than hackery.

538 went toward Romney yesterday and its going to do the same today. Only hackery here is denial of the polls.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 18, 2012, 03:04:08 PM
No it didn't... Obama's chance of winning increased marginally from 64.8% to 65.7% yesterday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 18, 2012, 03:04:24 PM

It didn't.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 18, 2012, 03:05:18 PM
No it didn't... Obama's chance of winning increased marginally from 64.8% to 65.7% yesterday.

And seeing how Silver only uses Gallup RV number, it may even go higher.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on October 18, 2012, 03:09:44 PM
No it didn't... Obama's chance of winning increased marginally from 64.8% to 65.7% yesterday.

And seeing how Silver only uses Gallup RV number, it may even go higher.

Maybe Silver said something different in his blog but the graph for the EV clearly shows small upward movement for Romney and downward movement for Obama. My mistake if it did.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on October 18, 2012, 03:11:32 PM
No it didn't... Obama's chance of winning increased marginally from 64.8% to 65.7% yesterday.

And seeing how Silver only uses Gallup RV number, it may even go higher.

Maybe Silver said something different in his blog but the graph for the EV clearly shows small upward movement for Romney and downward movement for Obama. My mistake if it did.
Not yesterday, although the increments are pretty small so it's hard to tell.
If you mouse-over the graph, you'll see.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 18, 2012, 03:12:01 PM
No it didn't... Obama's chance of winning increased marginally from 64.8% to 65.7% yesterday.

And seeing how Silver only uses Gallup RV number, it may even go higher.

Maybe Silver said something different in his blog but the graph for the EV clearly shows small upward movement for Romney and downward movement for Obama. My mistake if it did.

It didn't.

Lief is correct, Obama was at 64.8 the other day and is at 65.7.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on October 18, 2012, 03:37:10 PM
Another bad day for Gallup.

Even if job approval goes by adults and election polls go by likely voters, it's still quite a stretch to say Romney's leading while Obama's approval is at 50%.

That would be...another bad day for Obama

This debate bounce for Romney is a pleasant surprise.

No, the fact that those numbers conflict like this should be enough to question Gallup's credibility on this race and Obama's approval rating no matter what it shows.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on October 18, 2012, 03:45:59 PM
()

PPP. Does. Not. Weigh. By. Party. ID.

and it's the problem...there is a correlation between the number of democrats and the obama result. Just a fact.

Yes, and if there are more Democrats likely to vote (or are identifying as such to pollsters), Obama is in a better spot. Party ID is fluid!!!! How can we get this into your thick skull?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 18, 2012, 04:39:34 PM
Reuters

Obama-47(NC)
Romney-44(NC)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/18/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE89F07J20121018


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 18, 2012, 04:49:29 PM
Summarizing the trackers for the day (with rounding)...

Gallup   R+7
Rasmussen R+2
TIPP TIE
PPP  TIE
Reuters O+3
RAND 0+6

avg  TIE


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TrapperHawk on October 18, 2012, 05:04:28 PM
Tight race.

I know I'm late to the Gallup party, but I'm thinking that the 7-point margin will tighten up soon. I'm betting there are a couple of massive pro-Romney samples that will fall off soon. Probably in the next couple of days.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 18, 2012, 05:55:18 PM
Tight race.

I know I'm late to the Gallup party, but I'm thinking that the 7-point margin will tighten up soon. I'm betting there are a couple of massive pro-Romney samples that will fall off soon. Probably in the next couple of days.

J.J. forgot to say that. Maybe there are two pro-Romney samples in Monday and Tuesday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 18, 2012, 05:59:05 PM
Tight race.

I know I'm late to the Gallup party, but I'm thinking that the 7-point margin will tighten up soon. I'm betting there are a couple of massive pro-Romney samples that will fall off soon. Probably in the next couple of days.

J.J. forgot to say that. Maybe there are two pro-Romney samples in Monday and Tuesday.

Well if you look at the approval numbers (on a 3-day cycle), Obama's improved by about five points between the first half of the current 7-day Gallup sample and the second half.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 18, 2012, 06:18:11 PM
Something to consider re: Gallup

Quote
RT @JohnJHarwood: Top GOP pollster on Gallup's 7-pt Romney lead nationally among likely voters: "There is nothing I am looking at that resembles that data."


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: LiberalJunkie on October 18, 2012, 06:20:36 PM
Gallup is losing credibility by the day.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 18, 2012, 06:22:41 PM
Gallup hasn't had much credibility in terms of LV for over a a decade now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 18, 2012, 06:36:15 PM
I think that a couple things are happening with Gallup. First their LV model is too skewed to GOP (assuming they are using the same one as 2010 which was off by 8 points even in a big GOP year), and I think they ended up with a big red state pro-romney sample in there (the +22 in the south was a red flag) and these two things have resulted in an outlier. It happens. Of course the RAND poll may be just as fishy with its mirror image on the other side.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 18, 2012, 06:39:37 PM
Meanwhile, Silver basically says what we have all said so far.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 18, 2012, 06:47:06 PM
Tight race.

I know I'm late to the Gallup party, but I'm thinking that the 7-point margin will tighten up soon. I'm betting there are a couple of massive pro-Romney samples that will fall off soon. Probably in the next couple of days.

J.J. forgot to say that. Maybe there are two pro-Romney samples in Monday and Tuesday.

The odds on two are about 400 to 1.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 18, 2012, 10:11:00 PM
Way too early to know what the debate bounce will be like in the trackers (if there is one). All of these are majority pre-debate.

Plus, as I've pointed out before, the coverage of these debates is usually more important than the debates themselves. The coverage of this debate has definitely been more favorable toward Obama than his opponent (although it admittedly doesn't quite compare to the Romney lovefest that happened after the first one).

It will take days for things to sink in.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 18, 2012, 10:21:49 PM
Way too early to know what the debate bounce will be like in the trackers (if there is one). All of these are majority pre-debate.

Plus, as I've pointed out before, the coverage of these debates is usually more important than the debates themselves. The coverage of this debate has definitely been more favorable toward Obama than his opponent (although it admittedly doesn't quite compare to the Romney lovefest that happened after the first one).

It will take days for things to sink in.

We might start getting something on Rasmussen tomorrow, if there is anything.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Kalimantan on October 18, 2012, 11:44:40 PM
Tight race.

I know I'm late to the Gallup party, but I'm thinking that the 7-point margin will tighten up soon. I'm betting there are a couple of massive pro-Romney samples that will fall off soon. Probably in the next couple of days.

J.J. forgot to say that. Maybe there are two pro-Romney samples in Monday and Tuesday.

The odds on two are about 400 to 1.

so not too big then


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 19, 2012, 08:43:00 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney:  48, -1

Obama:  48, +1


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 19, 2012, 09:55:55 AM
PPP

Obama 48
Romney 47 (-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 19, 2012, 11:24:16 AM
THE BOUNCE HAS BEGUN


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 19, 2012, 11:25:42 AM

Ah, Obama didn't go up.  :)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 19, 2012, 11:31:17 AM

()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 19, 2012, 11:33:07 AM

PPP - Democrats need to accept debate this week was not a big game changer


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 19, 2012, 11:34:50 AM

Don't make me use the panic man.  ;)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: DrScholl on October 19, 2012, 11:37:35 AM
The thing is, Obama was doing worse than last week than he is now, so the debate did shift things somewhat. He recovered points even before the debate, so there wasn't going to be a huge change at the stage, anyway.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 19, 2012, 11:40:06 AM
The thing is, Obama was doing worse than last week than he is now, so the debate did shift things somewhat. He recovered points even before the debate, so there wasn't going to be a huge change at the stage, anyway.

Ah, no. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: DrScholl on October 19, 2012, 11:45:57 AM

Such an intelligent response.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 19, 2012, 11:59:06 AM
Obama was down 4 points on Sunday. Now, after the debate, he is up 1 point. How is that not a bounce?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 19, 2012, 12:00:47 PM
a) everyone calm down, we're talking about one set if state polls re:PPP
b) most expected a very small bump if anything
c) Obama IS in better shape than he was last week, but that process began before the debate


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Marston on October 19, 2012, 12:27:50 PM
Gallup:

RV:

Romney - 48% (NC)
Obama - 47% (NC)

LV:

Romney - 51% (-1)
Obama 45% (NC)



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 19, 2012, 12:34:05 PM
He's bouncing like a rock dropped in the swimming pool.  Marist and PPP were certainly trying to give impression of a bounce but only people on here believe that.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: GMantis on October 19, 2012, 12:37:04 PM
He's bouncing like a rock dropped in the swimming pool.  Marist and PPP were certainly trying to give impression of a bounce but only people on here believe that.
PPP said that the debate was not a game changer.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 19, 2012, 12:46:06 PM

no...

"In the two nights of polling conducted since the debate, Romney has a slight advantage. Tomorrow morning (Saturday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the second debate."

And (credible) state polls give a boost for Romney ;)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 19, 2012, 12:50:12 PM

Party id: D +4

Romney leads Indepedents voters by 5. he willl not lose with this margin.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 19, 2012, 01:00:01 PM

Uh, he did in Rasmussen (and even that is only 2/3 post-debate).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 19, 2012, 01:06:45 PM

Double that of the quoted material. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 19, 2012, 01:14:00 PM
Looks like a pretty good day for Obama in the national polling and a pretty weak day for him in the state polling.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 19, 2012, 01:17:00 PM
Looks like a pretty good day for Obama in the national polling and a pretty weak day for him in the state polling.

If down 6 on Gallup and tied on Rasmussen and one point ahead on PPP is "pretty good," you need a new definition of "pretty good."  :)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Marston on October 19, 2012, 01:21:07 PM
Looks like a pretty good day for Obama in the national polling and a pretty weak day for him in the state polling.

If down 6 on Gallup and tied on Rasmussen and one point ahead on PPP is "pretty good," you need a new definition of "pretty good."  :)

Don't reference Gallup seriously if you want to be taken seriously.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 19, 2012, 01:22:13 PM
Looks like a pretty good day for Obama in the national polling and a pretty weak day for him in the state polling.

If down 6 on Gallup and tied on Rasmussen and one point ahead on PPP, you need a new definition of "pretty good."  :)

Nobody takes Gallup seriously. Not even Romney's Republican pollsters. Plus there are national polls besides those three, perhaps you haven't heard.

And the main point was that all of the movement in the national polls so far today has been toward Obama, maybe you missed that too. Obama is very close to taking back the lead nationally even on the RCP average which doesn't include some of the polls that have been more favorable to Obama.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 19, 2012, 01:24:06 PM
Looks like a pretty good day for Obama in the national polling and a pretty weak day for him in the state polling.

If down 6 on Gallup and tied on Rasmussen and one point ahead on PPP, you need a new definition of "pretty good."  :)

Nobody takes Gallup seriously. Not even Romney's Republican pollsters. Plus there are national polls besides those three, perhaps you haven't heard.

And the main point was that all of the movement in the national polls so far today has been toward Obama, maybe you missed that too.

It still isn't a good day, though I think Gallup has a bad sample in it.  It will be a good day when it drops out, but that wasn't today. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on October 19, 2012, 01:31:05 PM
IBD/TIPP
Obama:  46.5
Romney: 44.8

So among tracking polls published today, Obama has gained 1 point in Gallup, IBD/TIPP, and PPP. He's gained 2 in Rasmussen. Romney gained 2 in RAND. Reuters/Ipsos is yet to update.

Once RCP updates IBD/TIPP Obama will move into a tie with Romney on their tracker. They don't include PPP's tracker which is kind of inexplicable as they use PPP's state polls.

EDIT: Looks like it pushed him ahead, even without including the PPP poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 19, 2012, 01:33:23 PM
Obama leads the RCP average by 0.1%! And RCP, being a right-wing hack website, doesn't include RAND, Ipsos or PPP.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 19, 2012, 01:44:56 PM
Looks like a pretty good day for Obama in the national polling and a pretty weak day for him in the state polling.

If down 6 on Gallup and tied on Rasmussen and one point ahead on PPP is "pretty good," you need a new definition of "pretty good."  :)

Don't reference Gallup seriously if you want to be taken seriously.

JJ will need to do much more than that to be taken seriously.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 19, 2012, 01:59:36 PM
Looks like a pretty good day for Obama in the national polling and a pretty weak day for him in the state polling.

If down 6 on Gallup and tied on Rasmussen and one point ahead on PPP is "pretty good," you need a new definition of "pretty good."  :)

Don't reference Gallup seriously if you want to be taken seriously.

JJ will need to do much more than that to be taken seriously.


Quoted for truth. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Franzl on October 19, 2012, 02:02:37 PM
Looks like a pretty good day for Obama in the national polling and a pretty weak day for him in the state polling.

If down 6 on Gallup and tied on Rasmussen and one point ahead on PPP is "pretty good," you need a new definition of "pretty good."  :)

Don't reference Gallup seriously if you want to be taken seriously.

JJ will need to do much more than that to be taken seriously.

He'd need to stop being J.J.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: DrScholl on October 19, 2012, 02:05:39 PM
Larry Sabato is questioning Gallup's methodology on Twitter. I think Gallup may have some real issue here.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 19, 2012, 02:36:11 PM
If Obama gets significant movement in Rasmussen or Gallup then I'll start to think he has a shot.  At this point he's in real trouble.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 19, 2012, 02:50:10 PM
Summarizing all Friday tracking polls (and change from prev)

Reuters Obama+3 (O+1)
RAND Obama +4 (R+2)
Rasmussen  TIE (O+2)
PPP  Obama +1 (O+1)
Gallup   Romney +6  (O+1)
TIPP Obama +2  (O+2)
  
avg  Obama +0.7 (O+0.8 )

Note: All polls rounded for apples to apples comparison, avg rounded to 1 decimal place. Reuters poll will be released later today, but that contains data from today so this is summary of polls with data ending yesterday (two days of post debate)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 19, 2012, 02:54:32 PM
Summarizing all Friday tracking polls (and change from prev)

Reuters Obama+3 (O+1)
RAND Obama +4 (R+2)
Rasmussen  TIE (O+2)
PPP  Obama +1 (O+1)
Gallup   Romney +6  (O+1)
TIPP Obama +2  (O+2)
  
avg  Obama +0.7 (O+0.7)

Note: All polls rounded for apples to apples comparison, avg rounded to 1 decimal place. Reuters poll will be released later today, but that contains data from today so this is summary of polls with data ending yesterday (two days of post debate)

Good job my friend.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 19, 2012, 03:01:57 PM
I fixed something the change since the day before is Obama+0.8. My summary yesterday was a TIE but I was including Reuters which included two days post-debate when all other polls just had one day. So today's summary is more apples/apples.

Also PPP is going to start releasing their tracker the same night starting tonight. So by the end of the day we will have 2 polls with 3 days of post debate data (if Rueters doesn't skip reporting today as the do sometimes). TIPP appears to be the last to report so hopefully I or someone can do a summary every day after they do.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 19, 2012, 04:10:39 PM
Reuters

Obama-46(-1)
Romney-43(-1)



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 19, 2012, 04:13:58 PM
Larry Sabato is questioning Gallup's methodology on Twitter. I think Gallup may have some real issue here.

That is a possibility.  It still has a self fulfilling prophesy effect.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on October 19, 2012, 09:21:30 PM
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-expands-lead-to-2-points-in-tracking-poll.html

PPP Tracker

Obama 49
Romney 47


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 19, 2012, 09:41:08 PM
PPP Tracker - National

Obama - 49 (+1)
Romney - 47 ()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 19, 2012, 09:56:17 PM
Summarizing all Friday tracking polls (and change from prev)

Reuters Obama+3 (O+1)
RAND Obama +4 (R+2)
Rasmussen  TIE (O+2)
PPP  Obama +1 (O+1)
Gallup   Romney +6  (O+1)
TIPP Obama +2  (O+2)
  
avg  Obama +0.7 (O+0.8 )

Note: All polls rounded for apples to apples comparison, avg rounded to 1 decimal place. Reuters poll will be released later today, but that contains data from today so this is summary of polls with data ending yesterday (two days of post debate)
Take out Gallups ridiculous numbers and the day is even brighter.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: sobo on October 19, 2012, 10:19:47 PM
PPP (Oct. 17-19)
Obama:  49 (+1)
Romney: 47 (nc)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-expands-lead-to-2-points-in-tracking-poll.html

EDIT: Oops. Didn't see this above.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 19, 2012, 10:21:40 PM
Alright... so that's 3 of us who have put it in now...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 19, 2012, 10:32:47 PM
The debate bounce is sweeping across the country. I invite my Romney-supporting friends to jump aboard the Obama Train before it's too late!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on October 19, 2012, 10:37:01 PM
The debate bounce is sweeping across the country. I invite my Romney-supporting friends to jump aboard the Obama Train before it's too late!

State polling disagrees.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on October 19, 2012, 10:37:19 PM
You think someone could post the PPP daily tracker? I haven't seen it yet. Lol, sorry guys.. I had to!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 19, 2012, 10:49:16 PM
The debate bounce is sweeping across the country. I invite my Romney-supporting friends to jump aboard the Obama Train before it's too late!

It is ship, not a train.  The RMS Titanic.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 19, 2012, 11:09:35 PM
You think someone could post the PPP daily tracker? I haven't seen it yet. Lol, sorry guys.. I had to!

Did PPP have a daily tracker in 08?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 19, 2012, 11:50:28 PM
Gravis National Romney 46-44
http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/romney-up-2-in-latest-national-poll.html

It's D+8 that should be popular.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 20, 2012, 12:08:39 AM
The debate bounce is sweeping across the country. I invite my Romney-supporting friends to jump aboard the Obama Train before it's too late!

State polling disagrees.

Well, Rasmussen's state polling disagrees anyway.

But then again, hasn't it felt like the state and national polling have been at odds over the entire course of this election? Hmm... maybe they'll finally meet in the middle.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cinyc on October 20, 2012, 12:12:06 AM
Gravis National Romney 46-44
http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/romney-up-2-in-latest-national-poll.html

It's D+8 that should be popular.

I don't think this is a tracking poll.  It looks like a one-day one-off survey that should be in its own thread.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 20, 2012, 12:14:32 AM
Ah, Gravis is polling nationally now I see. Anything to keep Romney up in the RCP average.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 20, 2012, 02:26:33 AM
According to Gravis Marketing, Romney is getting 95% of Republicans but Obama is only getting 83% of Democrats.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on October 20, 2012, 02:42:29 AM
According to Gravis Marketing, Romney is getting 95% of Republicans but Obama is only getting 83% of Democrats.

White flight continues!!!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: GMantis on October 20, 2012, 09:03:01 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  48, (u)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 20, 2012, 09:06:03 AM
RAND Poll
Obama 48.54% (-.28)
Romney 45.89% (+.23)

Looks like a pretty good Romney sample was picked up last Thurseday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 20, 2012, 09:16:02 AM
RAND Poll
Obama 48.54% (-.28)
Romney 45.89% (+.23)

Looks like a pretty good Romney sample was picked up last Thurseday.

Rasmussen got on on Friday, according to their website. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 20, 2012, 10:29:49 AM
Not sure where to post this, looks like Romney is starting to separate a little.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Swing State Tracking Poll

•Romney 50% (+1)

•Obama 46% (-1)

Obama Job Approval:

•Approve: 47% (-1)
•Disapprove: 53% (+2)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 20, 2012, 11:49:51 AM
PPP (Oct. 17-19)
Obama:  49 (+1)
Romney: 47 (nc)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-expands-lead-to-2-points-in-tracking-poll.html

EDIT: Oops. Didn't see this above.

Party id: D +6

(when it was tied, it was D +4, when it was o +1, it was D+5. TODAY, Party identification is solid like gender, age in my opinion).

Romney lead Independents by 6. Steady lead.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 20, 2012, 12:01:51 PM
Lol, our friends on here that say Party ID doesn't matter, ignore that these bastions of liberal polling keep having to increase their D samples to keep that firewall up for Obama.  Hope the lib voters get the memo they have to turnout accordingly.... wait I guess the polls are the memo :)


PPP (Oct. 17-19)
Obama:  49 (+1)
Romney: 47 (nc)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-expands-lead-to-2-points-in-tracking-poll.html

EDIT: Oops. Didn't see this above.

Party id: D +6

(when it was tied, it was D +4, when it was o +1, it was D+5. TODAY, Party identification is solid like gender, age in my opinion).

Romney lead Independents by 6. Steady lead.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 20, 2012, 12:06:57 PM
Gallup LV

Romney 51% (-)
Obama 45% (-)

Obama job approval (Adults)

Approve 49% (-1)
Disapprove 46%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 20, 2012, 12:22:57 PM
It's just an amazing coincidence then.  I've noticed over the years Dems tend to belive in coincidences....

Lol, our friends on here that say Party ID doesn't matter, ignore that these bastions of liberal polling keep having to increase their D samples to keep that firewall up for Obama.  Hope the lib voters get the memo they have to turnout accordingly.... wait I guess the polls are the memo :)


PPP (Oct. 17-19)
Obama:  49 (+1)
Romney: 47 (nc)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-expands-lead-to-2-points-in-tracking-poll.html

EDIT: Oops. Didn't see this above.

Party id: D +6

(when it was tied, it was D +4, when it was o +1, it was D+5. TODAY, Party identification is solid like gender, age in my opinion).

Romney lead Independents by 6. Steady lead.
You can't try to increase Party ID you retard. Party ID depends on the sample, it's random.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 20, 2012, 12:25:32 PM
Ras and Gallup are getting closer.  Gallup is holding a strong trend for Romney. :) 

 

Gallup LV

Romney 51% (-)
Obama 45% (-)

Obama job approval (Adults)

Approve 49% (-1)
Disapprove 46%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 20, 2012, 12:41:10 PM
IBD/TIPP Poll O+2.6
Obama- 46.6%
Romney-44.0%

Monday night's final debate on foreign policy looms large for Mitt Romney, as Obama has opened up a 2.6-point lead over the GOP challenger.
One area where Obama has gained in recent days is among suburban voters, with whom he has a 7-point edge, up from a tie Thursday.
Obama has also drawn even among male voters, a group with which Romney previously held a slight edge.
Obama has also solidified his lead among those who describe themselves as working class.
Romney remains strong, however, with independents, holding a 10-point advantage with that swing voting bloc.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 20, 2012, 12:44:31 PM
Obama clearly has the momentum now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 20, 2012, 12:45:31 PM
Barry needs to bring on Monday.

Finish him, Barry!

Reuters

Obama-46(NC)
Romney-45(+2)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 20, 2012, 01:49:33 PM
Saturday tracking poll summary* (and change from prev)

RAND Obama +3 (R+1)
Reuters* Obama+3 (-)
TIPP Obama +3  (O+1)
PPP  Obama +2 (O+1)
Rasmussen  Romney +1 (R+1)
Gallup   Romney +6  (-)
 
avg  Obama +0.5 (R+0.2)

*All polls showing rounded up data up to Friday, with 3 days of post-debate. Reuters and PPP now report same day, above data is on their data reported yesterday for apples/apples comparisons


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on October 20, 2012, 01:51:57 PM
Saturday tracking poll summary* (and change from prev)

RAND Obama +3 (R+1)
Reuters* Obama+3 (-)
TIPP Obama +3  (O+1)
PPP  Obama +2 (O+1)
Rasmussen  Romney +1 (R+1)
Gallup   Romney +6  (-)
 
avg  Obama +0.5 (R+0.2)

*All polls showing rounded up data up to Friday, with 3 days of post-debate. Reuters and PPP now report same day, above data is on their data reported yesterday for apples/apples comparisons

Yes, Obama definitely has clear momentum.

Sigh.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on October 20, 2012, 01:52:08 PM
It's definitely not great, but it isn't horrible, either.  Obama's in a nice position going into the third debate if he's at least slightly in the lead.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 20, 2012, 01:52:40 PM
Still a bit early but it looks like Obama may have gotten a baby bounce from the debate. Better than nothing, I suppose.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 20, 2012, 01:55:32 PM
The states are coming more in line with a national tie now.  Others have said in the past that state polls lag national polls.  Maybe that is what is going on here. 

It does look like Obama got 1-1.5% out of the 2nd debate, but it's a far cry from the back to September margins some were predicting.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 20, 2012, 01:58:16 PM
Saturday tracking poll summary* (and change from prev)

RAND Obama +3 (R+1)
Reuters* Obama+3 (-)
TIPP Obama +3  (O+1)
PPP  Obama +2 (O+1)
Rasmussen  Romney +1 (R+1)
Gallup   Romney +6  (-)
 
avg  Obama +0.5 (R+0.2)

*All polls showing rounded up data up to Friday, with 3 days of post-debate. Reuters and PPP now report same day, above data is on their data reported yesterday for apples/apples comparisons

Yes, Obama definitely has clear momentum.

Sigh.

Hard to say if either has momentum. Obama has gained about 1 point since the debate in the trackers but it may be flattening out again or trending back to Romney. I think on Monday we will have a better idea as all the pre-debate data will be gone. There is also an NBC national poll coming out Sunday and I assume another battleground poll from Politico.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 20, 2012, 02:19:25 PM
NBC/Wall Street Journal National Poll on Sunday? Nice! Finally.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 20, 2012, 02:23:46 PM
Yes NBC/WSJ poll released during MTP Sunday morning. I'm going to guess Obama +1. Last one was done right before Debate 1 and had Obama +3.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 20, 2012, 02:31:55 PM
Yes NBC/WSJ poll released during MTP Sunday morning. I'm going to guess Obama +1. Last one was done right before Debate 1 and had Obama +3.

I'll predict a tie (which is what I think the race actually is right now too).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 20, 2012, 03:15:04 PM
Alan Abrmowitz says that Gallup is an outlier because their LV model is excluding too many non-whites...
Quote
Although Gallup does not report the racial composition of its likely voter sample (or any of its other samples), based on the results presented in their October 16 report on the standing of the presidential candidates among whites and non-whites, one can use interpolation to estimate the racial composition of the likely voter sample. The results show that about 80 percent of Gallup's likely voter sample consisted of non-Hispanic whites while about 20 percent consisted of non-whites.

Gallup's estimate that only 20 percent of this year's likely voters are non-white is far lower than the 26 percent non-white share of voters found in the 2008 exit poll or even the 23 percent share found in the 2004 exit poll. It is actually very close to the 19 percent share found in the 2000 exit poll. So according to the Gallup tracking poll, the racial composition of the 2012 electorate will be similar to that of the 2000 electorate despite the dramatic increase in the nonwhite share of the voting age population that has occurred in the past 12 years.

The fact that the Gallup tracking poll is a big outlier when it comes to estimating the standing of the presidential candidates this year is, by itself, a very good reason to view their findings right now with deep skepticism.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-abramowitz/election-polls-gallup_b_1989865.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster

Unlike the obsession with party ID weighting, race is something that really matters.

Even the Romney campaign is working on the assumption that 26% of the electorate will be non-white
http://www.nationaljournal.com/thenextamerica/politics/obama-needs-80-of-minority-vote-to-win-2012-presidential-election-20120824


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 20, 2012, 03:23:52 PM
Yes NBC/WSJ poll released during MTP Sunday morning. I'm going to guess Obama +1. Last one was done right before Debate 1 and had Obama +3.

I'll predict a tie (which is what I think the race actually is right now too).
I predict Romney plus 1-2 or tie.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 20, 2012, 05:24:39 PM
Alan Abrmowitz says that Gallup is an outlier because their LV model is excluding too many non-whites...
Quote
Although Gallup does not report the racial composition of its likely voter sample (or any of its other samples), based on the results presented in their October 16 report on the standing of the presidential candidates among whites and non-whites, one can use interpolation to estimate the racial composition of the likely voter sample. The results show that about 80 percent of Gallup's likely voter sample consisted of non-Hispanic whites while about 20 percent consisted of non-whites.

Gallup's estimate that only 20 percent of this year's likely voters are non-white is far lower than the 26 percent non-white share of voters found in the 2008 exit poll or even the 23 percent share found in the 2004 exit poll. It is actually very close to the 19 percent share found in the 2000 exit poll. So according to the Gallup tracking poll, the racial composition of the 2012 electorate will be similar to that of the 2000 electorate despite the dramatic increase in the nonwhite share of the voting age population that has occurred in the past 12 years.

The fact that the Gallup tracking poll is a big outlier when it comes to estimating the standing of the presidential candidates this year is, by itself, a very good reason to view their findings right now with deep skepticism.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-abramowitz/election-polls-gallup_b_1989865.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster

Unlike the obsession with party ID weighting, race is something that really matters.

Even the Romney campaign is working on the assumption that 26% of the electorate will be non-white
http://www.nationaljournal.com/thenextamerica/politics/obama-needs-80-of-minority-vote-to-win-2012-presidential-election-20120824

While I will agree that their modeling may be off, Obama dropped to 46% (-1) on Gallup's Registered Voter poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 20, 2012, 09:15:04 PM
It's not random when you manipulate your demographics to get there...... good grief.  Can we have a discussion without name calling?

Lol, our friends on here that say Party ID doesn't matter, ignore that these bastions of liberal polling keep having to increase their D samples to keep that firewall up for Obama.  Hope the lib voters get the memo they have to turnout accordingly.... wait I guess the polls are the memo :)


PPP (Oct. 17-19)
Obama:  49 (+1)
Romney: 47 (nc)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-expands-lead-to-2-points-in-tracking-poll.html

EDIT: Oops. Didn't see this above.

Party id: D +6

(when it was tied, it was D +4, when it was o +1, it was D+5. TODAY, Party identification is solid like gender, age in my opinion).

Romney lead Independents by 6. Steady lead.
You can't try to increase Party ID you retard. Party ID depends on the sample, it's random.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 20, 2012, 09:25:47 PM
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter)
Mitt Romney (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 46%

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2012/10/20/UPI-Poll-Obama-cuts-into-Romney-lead/UPI-19991350739458/





Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 21, 2012, 08:50:09 AM
Rasussen:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, -1


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 21, 2012, 12:07:42 PM
Gallup (Likely):

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u

Gallup (Registered): 

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  46, u





Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 21, 2012, 12:12:35 PM
Gallup (Likely):

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u

Gallup (Registered): 

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  46, u

Some comments.

1.  This is not due to a problem with the likely voter screen.  It could be a problem of sample weighting.

2.  This is not do to a bad sample; this has lasted too long. 

3.  Okay, Lief, now you can panic.  ;)



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 21, 2012, 12:19:51 PM
Why would I panic? Gallup is not a good poll. They were very off in both 2008 and 2010. All the other data points to a tied national election with Obama holding on to a very slight electoral college lead.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 21, 2012, 12:22:17 PM
I really don't know if Obama is going to win or not at this point but Gallup is very likely to be embarrassed either way unless they play with their numbers last minute to save face.

There is literally no evidence in any of the other national or state polling to suggest that Obama is trailing by anything close to 7%.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 21, 2012, 12:23:36 PM
OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 21, 2012, 12:25:00 PM
RCP must really be regretting arbitrarily decided to include the IBD tracker in their average now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 21, 2012, 12:26:30 PM
Sunday tracking poll summary* (and change from prev)

TIPP Obama +6  (O+3)
RAND Obama +2 (R+1)
Reuters Obama+1 (R+2)
PPP  TIE (R+2)
Rasmussen  Romney +2 (R+1)
Gallup   Romney +7  (R+1)
  
avg  TIE  (R+0.5)

*All polls showing rounded up data up to Friday, with 3 days of post-debate. Reuters and PPP now report same day, above data is on their data reported yesterday for apples/apples comparisons


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 21, 2012, 12:30:28 PM
OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

Romney lead I by 6...

Party id: D+7


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on October 21, 2012, 12:31:27 PM
OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

Romney lead I by 6...

Party id: D+7

STOP.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Dumbo on October 21, 2012, 12:31:48 PM
OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

8 % not sure for which candidate they will vote, that
are millions of voters ...

------------
R +7, O +6 = 12.000.000 votes difference ...



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 21, 2012, 01:21:01 PM
HuffPo/Pollster has some news on Rasmussen's weighting changes. They moved from weighting D+3 to D+1.

Quote
Rasmussen is one of the few pollsters to routinely weight its samples so they match predetermined targets for the percentage of likely voters that identify as Democrats or Republicans. The catch, as Rasmussen Reports confirms to The Huffington Post, is that its weighting targets are now adjusting on a weekly basis to match the average party identification for likely voters measured on their last six weeks of calling (after weighting for demographics, but not for party). So the party weights for the past recent week may be slightly different than the party weights the week before.

More important, the weight targets for Rasmussen's national samples grew slightly more Republican in mid-October. Although the data are published on pages available to paid subscribers only, Rasmussen indicates that the national interviews for the week of Oct. 8 to 14 gave Democrats a 1-point edge over Republicans (38 to 37 percent). The party balance for the two prior weeks, Oct. 1 to 7 and Sept. 24 to 30, was a 3-point Democratic advantage (39 to 36 percent).



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Andrew1 on October 21, 2012, 01:23:37 PM
So today's trackers range from Romney +7 to Obama +6.

Gallup are in a world of their own.

Possibly IBD/TIPP is susceptible to wild swings. Remember how it shot up to Romney +5 the second day it was published, before settling down again?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 21, 2012, 01:31:46 PM
So today's trackers range from Romney +7 to Obama +6.

Gallup are in a world of their own.

Possibly IBD/TIPP is susceptible to wild swings. Remember how it shot up to Romney +5 the second day it was published, before settling down again?

No, that's Rasmussen, not Gallup. 

Gallup might have a problem with their sample.  In 2008, they overestimated Obama.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 21, 2012, 01:34:38 PM
OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

Romney lead I by 6...

Party id: D+7

In the last few years, many conservatives have shifted their ID from Republican to Independent. This leads both to a bigger margin for Dems and a bigger lead for Republicans among Is. It doesn't change the overall composition of the electorate on its own.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 21, 2012, 01:39:46 PM
OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

Romney lead I by 6...

Party id: D+7

In the last few years, many conservatives have shifted their ID from Republican to Independent. This leads both to a bigger margin for Dems and a bigger lead for Republicans among Is. It doesn't change the overall composition of the electorate on its own.
I'm starting to go insane with the incredible deja vu feeling of seeing this happen every single time poll numbers are posted. Thank goodness for you, man, because I don't have the patience to keep explaining to Umengus/Cliffy why they're wrong in every single freaking thread ever created regarding a poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 21, 2012, 01:43:06 PM
OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

Romney lead I by 6...

Party id: D+7

In the last few years, many conservatives have shifted their ID from Republican to Independent. This leads both to a bigger margin for Dems and a bigger lead for Republicans among Is. It doesn't change the overall composition of the electorate on its own.
I'm starting to go insane with the incredible deja vu feeling of seeing this happen every single time poll numbers are posted. Thank goodness for you, man, because I don't have the patience to keep explaining to Umengus/Cliffy why they're wrong in every single freaking thread ever created regarding a poll.

You can ignore me if you don't like what I write...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 21, 2012, 02:15:54 PM
Umengus

Serious question. What is your point when you note party ID. Just noting the number is pointless, so what is your opinion of it? Are you noting how this poll has an interesting shift of enthusiasm from one to the other? Or are you saying that there is some right number and that this number is wrong and therefore the poll is wrong? And if so do you believe all pollsters should be weighting their polls like Rasmussen and if so what is the 'right' number?

otherwise what's the point of posting the number. Say what you believe.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 21, 2012, 07:56:39 PM
Turnout won't be D+7, you think it will good for you.

Obama is not winning men by one either, no one shows this.

Romney is up by at least 2-3 right now and that's a very safe guess.  IBD is a joke,lol.

without the IBD poll romney is up big in the RCP.....

Just noticed that the IBD poll is 90% likely voter, lol that's precious.

and Obama is only down 1 pt in the south, that's highly believable???  Please hang your hopes on this poll.

The incredibly accurate IDB poll in 08
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/IBDTrackerTrend.php


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Marston on October 21, 2012, 08:53:11 PM
PPP Tracker

October 19-21

Barack Obama: 48%
Mitt Romney: 48%

No change.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 22, 2012, 12:10:47 AM
Gallup (Likely):

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u

Gallup (Registered):  

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  46, u

The state polls do not agree with this sh*t. Tied race at best, but not Romney+7.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 22, 2012, 12:25:09 AM
Gallup (Likely):

Romney:  52, +1

Obama:  45, u

Gallup (Registered):  

Romney:  49, +1

Obama:  46, u

The state polls do not agree with this sh*t. Tied race at best, but not Romney+7.

I doubt that it is at +7, but it does show momentum, as does the LV numbers.  It is Romney lead, at best.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 22, 2012, 12:43:18 AM
Umengus

Or are you saying that there is some right number and that this number is wrong and therefore the poll is wrong? And if so do you believe all pollsters should be weighting their polls like Rasmussen and if so what is the 'right' number?



that's it. Especially at national level where you know that you will not have a D+8 or R+8 election. And my guess for now is between D+0 and D+2


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 22, 2012, 04:32:51 AM
Umengus

Or are you saying that there is some right number and that this number is wrong and therefore the poll is wrong? And if so do you believe all pollsters should be weighting their polls like Rasmussen and if so what is the 'right' number?



that's it. Especially at national level where you know that you will not have a D+8 or R+8 election. And my guess for now is between D+0 and D+2

Exactly, that's YOUR guess. And you know nothing about US politics ;). When will you understand that polls call people randomly, and there are more democrats than republicans because many conservative (tea party) and moderate republicans (anti-tea party) consider themselves independents now?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 22, 2012, 09:40:25 AM
Rasmussen (Likely Voters):

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 22, 2012, 12:33:29 PM
Umengus

Or are you saying that there is some right number and that this number is wrong and therefore the poll is wrong? And if so do you believe all pollsters should be weighting their polls like Rasmussen and if so what is the 'right' number?



that's it. Especially at national level where you know that you will not have a D+8 or R+8 election. And my guess for now is between D+0 and D+2

Exactly, that's YOUR guess. And you know nothing about US politics ;). When will you understand that polls call people randomly, and there are more democrats than republicans because many conservative (tea party) and moderate republicans (anti-tea party) consider themselves independents now?

I'm on this forum for 9 years so I think that I know very well US politics.

Proof for the rest of your affirmation ?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 22, 2012, 01:29:57 PM
Monday Summary

PPP
Obama 48
Romney 48

Rasmussen
Obama 49
Romney 47

RAND (Rounded)
Obama 48
Romney 46

Gallup
Obama 45
Romney 51 (-1)

Reuters
Obama 46 (-1) [Change since Sat, Skipped reporting Sunday]
Romney 46

TIPP (Rounded)
Obama 47 (-1)
Romney 43 (+1)


Lead Summary
TIPP Obama +4 (R+2)
RAND Obama +2
PPP  TIE
Reuters* TIE (R+1)
Rasmussen  Romney +2
Gallup   Romney +6  (O+1)
  
Average: Romney +0.3 (R+0.3)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 22, 2012, 01:31:44 PM
Monday Summary

PPP
Obama 48
Romney 48

Rasmussen
Obama 49
Romney 47

RAND (Rounded)
Obama 48
Romney 46

Gallup
Obama 45
Romney 51 (-1)

Reuters
Obama 46 (-1) [Change since Sat, Skipped reporting Sunday]
Romney 46

TIPP (Rounded)
Obama 47 (-1)
Romney 43 (+1)


Lead Summary
TIPP Obama +4 (R+2)
RAND Obama +2
PPP  TIE
Reuters* TIE (R+1)
Rasmussen  Romney +2
Gallup   Romney +6  (O+1)
  
Average: Romney +0.3 (R+0.3)

thanks


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 22, 2012, 01:38:22 PM
Gallup RV:

Romney 48% (-1)
Obama 47% (+1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 22, 2012, 01:56:55 PM
Tipp has an outlier in there, course their body of work was terrible in 08, to small a samples. 

In your summary you have Obama up 2, should be romney.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 22, 2012, 02:05:51 PM
Gallup RV:

Romney 48% (-1)
Obama 47% (+1)

BOOM!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 22, 2012, 02:26:49 PM

BUST!

Registered voters, and enthusiasm is down on the D side.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 22, 2012, 02:28:48 PM

Down compared to what?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 22, 2012, 02:31:15 PM

2008 and to the other party.  Obama's Strongly Approve number has dropped 5-6 points in the past week. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 22, 2012, 02:33:02 PM

2008 and to the other party.  Obama's Strongly Approve number has dropped 5-6 points in the past week. 

Ya think? :P


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 22, 2012, 04:17:24 PM
Washington Post/ABC has a daily tracking poll too now.

Obama 49
Romney 48

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-49-percent-romney-48-percent/


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 22, 2012, 04:19:08 PM
Washington Post/ABC has a daily tracking poll too now.

Obama 49
Romney 48

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-49-percent-romney-48-percent/

Romney gained 2 points since their last one:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/index.html


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 22, 2012, 04:20:45 PM
Quote
This is the first release from a new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll; fresh results available each day through Nov. 5 at 5 p.m.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-49-percent-romney-48-percent/

Romney increasing by 2% is basically just float within the margin of error. And Obama is holding steady at 49%, enough to win re-election.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 22, 2012, 04:39:57 PM
Washington Post/ABC has a daily tracking poll too now.

Obama 49
Romney 48

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-49-percent-romney-48-percent/

Romney gained 2 points since their last one:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/index.html
It's a tracking poll, so I'm not sure the methodology and sample size is the same as the national one. So it's kinda comparing apples to oranges.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 22, 2012, 04:48:21 PM
Washington Post/ABC has a daily tracking poll too now.

Obama 49
Romney 48

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-49-percent-romney-48-percent/

Romney gained 2 points since their last one:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/index.html
It's a tracking poll, so I'm not sure the methodology and sample size is the same as the national one. So it's kinda comparing apples to oranges.

They are including it, so am taking it as that, and using it as a baseline. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 23, 2012, 07:02:47 AM
PPP

Romney 49 (+1)
Obama 47 (-1)


Onward!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: dirks on October 23, 2012, 08:46:50 AM
Ras 10/23/12

Romney - 50%
Obama - 46%

http://www.drudgereport.com/

()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 23, 2012, 09:11:46 AM
Confirmed on Rasmussen:  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Note that these numbers are completely prior to the third debate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: dirks on October 23, 2012, 09:25:21 AM
Confirmed on Rasmussen:  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Note that these numbers are completely prior to the third debate.

which pretty much explains Obama's panicky, attack dog mode. Internal polling on both ends probably indicated a shift to Romney in the final two weeks...Romney has to play it presidential, Obama has to try and knock him down a few pegs


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 23, 2012, 09:28:30 AM
Ras swing state tracker:

Romney 50 (+1)
Obama 45 (-1)


Dominating.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on October 23, 2012, 09:33:10 AM
Ras swing state tracker:

Romney 50 (+1)
Obama 45 (-1)


Dominating.

Not sure if it's the republicans who are delusional about their candidate winning.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 23, 2012, 09:39:58 AM
Ras swing state tracker:

Romney 50 (+1)
Obama 45 (-1)


Dominating.

Not sure if it's the republicans who are delusional about their candidate winning.

Gallup, maybe (or maybe not). 

Well, Friday will have the third debate numbers in it. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 23, 2012, 11:53:06 AM
Reuters

Obama-47(+1)
Romney-46(NC)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 23, 2012, 12:10:44 PM
It's 1:10 and still no Gallup update.

WHAT IS GOING ON!?!?!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: dirks on October 23, 2012, 12:29:44 PM
Gallup just showed up on Drudge

Romney 51
Obama 45


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Chaddyr23 on October 23, 2012, 12:33:07 PM
51-46 is what gallup.com says for LV


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 23, 2012, 12:59:36 PM
TIPP:

Romney 45 (+2)
Obama 47 (unc)


Onward! Obama is capping out at the 47%ers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on October 23, 2012, 01:12:42 PM
Thank you, krazen, for once again demonstrating your complete lack of an understanding of politics.

More will not be necessary; we all get it by now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: LiberalJunkie on October 23, 2012, 01:36:19 PM
Thank you, krazen, for once again demonstrating your complete lack of an understanding of politics.

More will not be necessary; we all get it by now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 23, 2012, 03:22:03 PM
Gallup:

Obama Approval:

51% (+2)

45% (-1)

Registered Voters

Romney 48% (nc)

Obama 47% (nc)

Likely Voters

Romney 51% (nc)

Obama 46% (+1)

Slowly coming back to Earth?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 23, 2012, 03:58:08 PM
Something worth noting about Rasmussen: He's the only guy who weights by party and he recently changed from D+3 to D+1. That may explain some of Romney's "bounce" in his numbers.

That would constitute a very Republican electorate. I seriously doubt we're going to see that in two weeks but we'll know soon enough.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 23, 2012, 04:03:14 PM
WaPo-ABC Tracking Poll:
Romney 49 (+1)
Obama 48 (-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 23, 2012, 04:08:23 PM
Tuesday Summary

NOTE: Today adds two trackers (UPI & ABC).

PPP
Obama 47 (-1)
Romney 49 (+1)

Rasmussen
Obama 46 (-1)
Romney 50 (+1)

RAND (Rounded)
Obama 48
Romney 46

Gallup
Obama 46 (+1)
Romney 51

Reuters
Obama 47 (+1)
Romney 46

TIPP (Rounded)
Obama 47
Romney 45 (R+2)

UPI
Obama 48 (+1)
Romney 48

ABC
Obama 48(-1)
Romney 49 (+1)


Lead Summary
RAND Obama +2
TIPP Obama +2 (R+2)
Reuters Obama +1 (O+1)
UPI TIE (O+1)
ABC Romney +1 (R+2)
PPP Romney +2 (R+2)
Rasmussen  Romney +4 (R+2)
Gallup   Romney +5  (O+1)
  
Average: Romney +0.9 (R+0.6)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 23, 2012, 04:32:04 PM
Romney + 2 in the consensus of polls. Not too shabby.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 23, 2012, 04:48:19 PM
Damn, there are a lot of tracking polls going on now...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 23, 2012, 04:50:25 PM
The ABC poll has Romney up by only 0.07. It's actually 48.51 to 48.44.

And that's an LV poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 23, 2012, 04:57:01 PM
The ABC poll has Romney up by only 0.07. It's actually 48.51 to 48.44.

And that's an LV poll.

Where do you see that?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 23, 2012, 04:58:42 PM
The ABC poll has Romney up by only 0.07. It's actually 48.51 to 48.44.

And that's an LV poll.

Where do you see that?

Someone on Daily Kos mentioned it.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Beet on October 23, 2012, 05:07:39 PM
Funny that our tracker average has R +0.9 and the TPM tracker average is O +0.5
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 23, 2012, 05:09:20 PM
Gallup:

Obama Approval:

51% (+2)

45% (-1)

Registered Voters

Romney 48% (nc)

Obama 47% (nc)

Likely Voters

Romney 51% (nc)

Obama 46% (+1)

Slowly coming back to Earth?

Thanks, I'll correct it.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 23, 2012, 06:40:51 PM
Funny that our tracker average has R +0.9 and the TPM tracker average is O +0.5
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12

What the Track?

Actually their PollTracker is tracking more than just the trackers. For example the YouGov and NBC polls help move it more to Obama. Also I am rounding for apples to apples. They are going to one decimal place and today's ABC/WaPo poll is such that rounding makes it better for Romney.  I might consider doing one decimal place in the future but its more of a hassle. I might have to actually get a piece of paper out instead of just doing the avg in my head.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 23, 2012, 08:40:16 PM
I think you guys missed one of your favorites. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/102010211022TrackingPoll.pdf

PPP Daily Tracker
Romney 49
Obama 47

Men
Romney 55
Obama 41

Women
Obama 51
Romney 45

Independents
Romney 50
Obama 42

Presidential JA
Approve 46
Disapprove 51


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 23, 2012, 08:43:18 PM
Nope, read better plz.

PPP

Romney 49 (+1)
Obama 47 (-1)


Onward!



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 23, 2012, 08:45:13 PM

Plus, the entire thing is pre-debate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on October 23, 2012, 08:46:43 PM
Intrade's not looking great tonight, probably because of today's polls.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 23, 2012, 08:53:05 PM

Is this debate going to move the needle like the 2nd debate?  I don't think Obama has a chance if he keeps getting debate movement.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 23, 2012, 09:02:19 PM
Intrade's not looking great tonight, probably because of today's polls.

Obama is currently below 55%. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 23, 2012, 09:03:46 PM
Intrade's not looking great tonight, probably because of today's polls.

Obama is currently below 55%. 

This was explained already in another thread.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 23, 2012, 09:06:55 PM
Intrade's not looking great tonight, probably because of today's polls.

Obama is currently below 55%. 

This was explained already in another thread.

You don't understand.  Someone is selling Obama.  His numbers are dropping faster than Romney's are gaining.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mister Twister on October 23, 2012, 09:18:50 PM
Intrade's not looking great tonight, probably because of today's polls.

Obama is currently below 55%. 

This was explained already in another thread.

You don't understand.  Someone is selling Obama.  His numbers are dropping faster than Romney's are gaining.

You seem like a man who knows what he's talking about. So come straight with me - is there ANY chance Obama wins this election? Or should I just give up?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 23, 2012, 09:22:03 PM
Intrade's not looking great tonight, probably because of today's polls.

Obama is currently below 55%. 

This was explained already in another thread.

You don't understand.  Someone is selling Obama.  His numbers are dropping faster than Romney's are gaining.

You seem like a man who knows what he's talking about. So come straight with me - is there ANY chance Obama wins this election? Or should I just give up?

Hahaha.

You may want to look back at some of the "wisdom" JJ dispensed during the 2008 election (Wisconsin primary being particularly amusing) before you go soliciting his take on things.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: old timey villain on October 23, 2012, 09:27:00 PM
Intrade's not looking great tonight, probably because of today's polls.

Obama is currently below 55%. 

This was explained already in another thread.

You don't understand.  Someone is selling Obama.  His numbers are dropping faster than Romney's are gaining.

You seem like a man who knows what he's talking about. So come straight with me - is there ANY chance Obama wins this election? Or should I just give up?

Why would you give up? Obama still has 270 electoral votes and it looks like the polls have remained very steady since the last debate - I have seen an equal number of favorable Obama and favorable Romney polls. Sure it's not gonna be 2008 for Obama, but it won't be 2008 for Romney either.

If Obama supporters actually get out there and VOTE instead of bitching about the race being close then we would have nothing to worry about. You swing state voters have no idea how lucky you are.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 23, 2012, 09:38:54 PM
Both of the above posters have a lot to learn about Mister Twister yet. He is a man who is keen in his trolling, at a level possible only through years of intense training (and I truly say this in a mode of admiration).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 23, 2012, 11:50:01 PM
Intrade's not looking great tonight, probably because of today's polls.

Obama is currently below 55%. 

This was explained already in another thread.

You don't understand.  Someone is selling Obama.  His numbers are dropping faster than Romney's are gaining.

You seem like a man who knows what he's talking about. So come straight with me - is there ANY chance Obama wins this election? Or should I just give up?

Yes.  There are two states I would watch, OH and WI.  OH has closed.

The selling, which appears to be a market function, can be reflective of what has happened.  I don't think it is predictive. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 24, 2012, 12:33:22 AM
The pollsters are basically using a Jim Crow voter screen for their LV numbers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 24, 2012, 12:37:03 AM
The pollsters are basically using a Jim Crow voter screen for their LV numbers.


lol


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 24, 2012, 01:09:31 AM
It's pretty funny how Mister Twister and J. J. use each other as a crutch to troll with, even though I doubt they are actually directly collaborating.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Devils30 on October 24, 2012, 12:30:01 PM
Gallup-
LV: Romney 50(-1) Obama 47 (+1)
RV: Obama 48 (+1) Romney 47 (-1)
 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 24, 2012, 12:31:47 PM
HUGE Obama surge on Gallup today:

Obama Approval: 53% (+2)

Obama Disapproval: 42% (-3)

Registered Voters:

Obama 48% (+1)

Romney 47% (-1)

Likely Voters:

Romney 50% (-1)

Obama 47% (+1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Devils30 on October 24, 2012, 12:34:12 PM
Seems like Gallup will move toward the average again but considering their wild swings we can't trust them.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 24, 2012, 12:35:24 PM
Screw Gallup.

Anyone who has swings like these, shouldn't be taking seriously IMO.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 24, 2012, 12:38:31 PM
Have to play catch-up post down time. PPP is tied again. 48-48


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 24, 2012, 12:43:19 PM
Rasmussen:

Romney 50% (nc)

Obama 46% (nc)

Swing state tracking:

Romney 50% (nc)

Obama 46% (+1)

It sounds like a debate bump may be on the way:

Quote
These updates are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, approximately two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the end of Monday night’s presidential debate. The single night of interviews conducted after the debate is similar to the two-point advantage Romney has enjoyed recently rather than the current four-point spread. As always, caution should be used when interpreting a single night of data in a tracking poll. Friday morning will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the final debate.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 24, 2012, 12:43:44 PM
Are we observing any "trends" in Gallup that we can extrapolate into the future?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 24, 2012, 12:44:57 PM
UPI/C-Voter poll - Obama leads 49-47


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 24, 2012, 12:46:12 PM
One thing is for sure. If Obama's approval on election day is 53% then there is no way he will lose.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 24, 2012, 12:48:22 PM
Rasmussen:

Romney 50% (nc)

Obama 46% (nc)

Swing state tracking:

Romney 50% (nc)

Obama 46% (+1)

It sounds like a debate bump may be on the way:

Quote
These updates are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, approximately two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the end of Monday night’s presidential debate. The single night of interviews conducted after the debate is similar to the two-point advantage Romney has enjoyed recently rather than the current four-point spread. As always, caution should be used when interpreting a single night of data in a tracking poll. Friday morning will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the final debate.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll



I don't think. The Romney +4 was the outlier. romney +2 is the norm.

PPP: "Tuesday was a tie in our national tracking and a good Saturday for Romney rolled off, hence the overall tie"


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 24, 2012, 12:54:17 PM
And so...

PPP:

Obama 48 (+1)

Romney 48 (-1)

UPI:

Obama 49 (+1)

Romney 47 (-1)


Obama is having a very big day. Early signs of a debate bounce? Natural tightening? It certainly can't have anything to do with the Murdock story yet.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 24, 2012, 12:56:06 PM
Obama is having a very big day. Early signs of a debate bounce?

I think it's more of a "Romney basically stinks" bounce.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 24, 2012, 01:19:00 PM
IBD/TIPP

Obama 47
Romney 44

Obama up 3 (was +2 yesterday)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: old timey villain on October 24, 2012, 01:23:18 PM
Gallup is bipolar, let's just admit it. Or they reflect an America that is bipolar.

"53% of voters approve of the Job the current president is doing, but almost as many want the other guy in office instead." People say Americans are self hating masochists, and perhaps we are.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on October 24, 2012, 01:32:57 PM
Has Gallup ever been this far off? I know they are not what they used to be, but predicting a 4-5 point win for the challenger and then the president wins would be just awful.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 24, 2012, 01:33:20 PM
RAND:

Obama 49 (+1)

Romney 45 (-1)

Pro-Obama movement in every poll today except Rasmussen which basically admitted there will be pro-Obama movement tomorrow.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 24, 2012, 01:34:28 PM
Gallup is bipolar, let's just admit it. Or they reflect an America that is bipolar.

"53% of voters approve of the Job the current president is doing, but almost as many want the other guy in office instead." People say Americans are self hating masochists, and perhaps we are.

53 % of adults...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 24, 2012, 01:34:40 PM
Has Gallup ever been this far off? I know they are not what they used to be, but predicting a 4-5 point win for the challenger and then the president wins would be just awful.

Well, they're only +3 now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on October 24, 2012, 01:37:21 PM
Reverse deluge!!!1


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 24, 2012, 01:37:48 PM
Just waiting for Reuters/Ipsos and ABC/Washington Post now, I guess.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on October 24, 2012, 01:39:47 PM
Definitely Obama's best polling day in quite a while so far.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 24, 2012, 01:50:04 PM
THE DEBATE BOUNCE HAS ARRIVED


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 24, 2012, 02:04:38 PM
Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. I think everyone might be jinxing it; watch Reuters and Wash Post show steady or bounce Romney. Was media coverage even good enough for Obama to get a bounce?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 24, 2012, 02:10:46 PM
Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. I think everyone might be jinxing it; watch Reuters and Wash Post show steady or bounce Romney. Was media coverage even good enough for Obama to get a bounce?

This.  Two polls, Rassy and Gallup still show Romney ahead, Rassy by 4 and Gallup by 3.  Rassy is partisan, but they're still a valid pollster.  The Gallup poll yesterday showed Romney up by 5, so a debate "bounce" that still puts your opponent ahead in the poll, is something I would pass on.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 24, 2012, 02:22:42 PM
Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. I think everyone might be jinxing it; watch Reuters and Wash Post show steady or bounce Romney. Was media coverage even good enough for Obama to get a bounce?

This.  Two polls, Rassy and Gallup still show Romney ahead, Rassy by 4 and Gallup by 3.  Rassy is partisan, but they're still a valid pollster.  The Gallup poll yesterday showed Romney up by 5, so a debate "bounce" that still puts your opponent ahead in the poll, is something I would pass on.
And of course, Reuters says Romney is ahead 47-46 percent. But..... 3/4 of the interviews are pre-debate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on October 24, 2012, 02:25:14 PM
Gallup is bipolar, let's just admit it. Or they reflect an America that is bipolar.

"53% of voters approve of the Job the current president is doing, but almost as many want the other guy in office instead." People say Americans are self hating masochists, and perhaps we are.

53 % of adults...

It's still a little absurd. Obama's aggregate disapproval on RCP is lower than it's been since April and as low as it's been since January, and his approval is only a few tenths of a per cent below 50, where it was for only two days during the high tide in September.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 24, 2012, 03:07:41 PM
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5850

17% now say they have already cast their vote this election, and this breaks down 53% for Obama / 42% for Romney





Lol. What pure junk!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 24, 2012, 03:35:49 PM
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5850

17% now say they have already cast their vote this election, and this breaks down 53% for Obama / 42% for Romney





Lol. What pure junk!

Actually, this could be close.  D's have a higher percentage in early voting.  It tended to be higher, in terms of registration, in 2008. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on October 24, 2012, 03:43:07 PM
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5850

17% now say they have already cast their vote this election, and this breaks down 53% for Obama / 42% for Romney





Lol. What pure junk!

Why is it junk? You do realize a lot of people vote early and absentee, don't you? In Washington and Oregon basically everyone does. In a lot of other western states, including California with more than 10% of national voters, about half the voters do. I already have my ballot and I will be sending it out pretty soon as well.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 24, 2012, 03:52:46 PM
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5850

17% now say they have already cast their vote this election, and this breaks down 53% for Obama / 42% for Romney





Lol. What pure junk!

Why is it junk? You do realize a lot of people vote early and absentee, don't you? In Washington and Oregon basically everyone does. In a lot of other western states, including California with more than 10% of national voters, about half the voters do. I already have my ballot and I will be sending it out pretty soon as well.

Certainly because it doesn't line up with the facts on the ground. Unless you believe in a complete breakdown of past, present, and future tenses. California counties reported only 4 million early votes and that is not even close to half. There is no known count of 22 million early votes already cast.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on October 24, 2012, 03:55:37 PM
Even if I vote tonight and send in my ballot, I highly doubt it will even reach them for another couple of days, if not more. On top of that it might take them even more time just to record it on some online database.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 24, 2012, 04:06:29 PM
EDIT: Fixed error on Reuters

Wednesday Summary

PPP
Obama  48 (+1)
Romney 48 (-1)

Rasmussen
Obama  46
Romney 50

RAND (Rounded)
Obama  49 (+1)
Romney 45 (-1)

Gallup
Obama  47 (+1)
Romney 50 (-1)

Reuters
Obama  46 (-1)
Romney 47 (+1)

TIPP (Rounded)
Obama  47
Romney 44 (-1)

UPI
Obama  49 (+1)
Romney 47 (-1)

ABC
Obama  48
Romney 49


Lead Summary
Rand:      Obama +4  (O+2)
TIPP:      Obama +3  (O+1)
UPI:       Obama +2  (O+2)
PPP:       TIE       (O+2)
Reuters:   Romney +1  (R+2)
ABC:       Romney +1 (-)
Gallup:    Romney +3 (O+2)
Rasmussen: Romney +4 (-)
 
Average: Tied (O+0.9)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 24, 2012, 04:46:20 PM
Reuters is Romney + 1. Last was Obama + 1.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 24, 2012, 04:58:10 PM
Fixed. The race is tied. It has returned to where it was on Sunday.  Hard to say if yesterday's Romney surge and today's Obama surge are anything more than noise.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 24, 2012, 05:04:17 PM
Still waiting on ABC/Washington Post though. When does that usually come out?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 24, 2012, 05:06:35 PM
I echo the calls we should all take a deep breath.  These polls today have by no means sealed the deal for Obama, in fact, we know absolutely nothing more today than we did yesterday, and we knew nothing more yesterday than we did Monday.  The only thing more we know today is we have 13 days left instead of the 14 we had yesterday and the 15 we had Monday.  In fact, with it being after 6:00 on the East Coast, we're rapidly knocking it down to 12 days.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 24, 2012, 05:06:46 PM
WaPo/ABC poll is unchanged

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/24/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-wins-final-debate-romney-gains-supporters/


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 24, 2012, 05:07:28 PM
Still waiting on ABC/Washington Post though. When does that usually come out?

Politico.com shows the ABC/WaPo poll with a 1 point Romney lead - 49-48.  It was conducted Oct 20-23, so on both sides of the debate.

Here is the link on the WaPo website:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/23/post-abc-tracking-poll-romney-49-percent-obama-48/


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 24, 2012, 05:08:16 PM
WaPo/ABC poll is unchanged

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/24/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-wins-final-debate-romney-gains-supporters/
It also says Obama only leads on the "understands economic problems of people like you" question by 5 points, 50-45. Highly doubt it, as most other pollsters have him up on that by double digits.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 24, 2012, 05:11:35 PM
WaPo/ABC poll is unchanged

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/24/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-wins-final-debate-romney-gains-supporters/
It also says Obama only leads on the "understands economic problems of people like you" question by 5 points, 50-45. Highly doubt it, as most other pollsters have him up on that by double digits.

The latest poll has Obama leading 51-44 on that same question.  It has Romney leading 50-45 on who would better handle the economy and has Obama's approval/disapproval at 49/49.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 24, 2012, 10:16:06 PM
PPP
Obama 49 (+1)
Romney 48 (nc)

The debate bounce continues. He was down 49-47 on Monday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 24, 2012, 10:29:22 PM
THis is interesting
Quote
@ppppolls
Last week Obama had 3 straight good nights after debate, then things kind of reverted back. We'll see if this one has a more lasting effect

So is Romney ahead the new normal with Obama getting little bumps from the last two debates? or has Obama turned it around?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on October 24, 2012, 10:50:57 PM
THis is interesting
Quote
@ppppolls
Last week Obama had 3 straight good nights after debate, then things kind of reverted back. We'll see if this one has a more lasting effect

So is Romney ahead the new normal with Obama getting little bumps from the last two debates? or has Obama turned it around?

PPPs cryptic messages are annoying. One night for one of the 10 trackers need not be all that dramatic.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on October 24, 2012, 11:01:41 PM
THis is interesting
Quote
@ppppolls
Last week Obama had 3 straight good nights after debate, then things kind of reverted back. We'll see if this one has a more lasting effect

So is Romney ahead the new normal with Obama getting little bumps from the last two debates? or has Obama turned it around?

Swing voters are going to have to start making decisions soon.  Numbers should start to stabilize.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Badger on October 25, 2012, 12:16:46 AM
I echo the calls we should all take a deep breath.  These polls today have by no means sealed the deal for Obama, in fact, we know absolutely nothing more today than we did yesterday, and we knew nothing more yesterday than we did Monday.  The only thing more we know today is we have 13 days left instead of the 14 we had yesterday and the 15 we had Monday.  In fact, with it being after 6:00 on the East Coast, we're rapidly knocking it down to 12 days.

Good point. And then on Friday we'll be down to...11 days I think? How many will we have on Saturday?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on October 25, 2012, 12:26:07 AM
Probably 10.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on October 25, 2012, 12:26:49 AM

That's your opinion.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 25, 2012, 12:28:49 AM
, man.

()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 25, 2012, 09:17:56 AM
Rasmussen LV:

Romney:  50, +1

Obama:  47, +1


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on October 25, 2012, 09:21:39 AM
Rasmussen LV:

Romney:  50, +1

Obama:  47, +1
Weren't they 50-46 yesterday?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 25, 2012, 09:35:57 AM
Rasmussen LV:

Romney:  50, +1

Obama:  47, +1
Weren't they 50-46 yesterday?

Yep.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 25, 2012, 09:36:55 AM
Rasmussen LV:

Romney:  50, +1

Obama:  47, +1
Weren't they 50-46 yesterday?

Here is my post from yesterday:


Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  49, u

Disapprove:  49, u

Strongly Approve:  29, +3

Strongly Disapprove:  41, -1

Head to Head:

Romney: 49, -1

Obama:  46, u

Strongly approved numbers came back up, but are still down 3.

I did have it 50 to 46 the day before. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 25, 2012, 09:40:20 AM
It was recorded as 50-46 yesterday


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 25, 2012, 09:42:27 AM

Correct. It was 50-46 in the previous 2 days:

http://www.argojournal.com/2012/10/poll-watch-rasmussen-r-2012-daily_25.html#more


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 25, 2012, 09:45:02 AM
Rasmussen's graphic shows Romey at 49 yesterday:

()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 25, 2012, 12:09:19 PM
Gallup is unchanged from yesterday, 50-47.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 25, 2012, 01:45:46 PM
Gallup is unchanged from yesterday, 50-47.

not bad...

there is maybe a little obama bounce (1-2 p) in the pipeline but it will be over monday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 25, 2012, 01:52:21 PM
TIPP

Obama: 47 (-1)
Romney: 45


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 25, 2012, 01:54:42 PM

And... And.. And Sunday, umm we will be down to, uh, I think 9.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 25, 2012, 01:57:58 PM
PPP gives the President a 49-48 lead.  The poll was conducted Oct 22-24, so 2/3 after the debate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 25, 2012, 03:13:26 PM
PPP gives the President a 49-48 lead.  The poll was conducted Oct 22-24, so 2/3 after the debate.

Isn't that the same as yesterday?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 25, 2012, 04:08:05 PM
And to dispel doubts about their bias among Republicans, the WasPost/ABC Tracking Poll puts Romney up 3.
Obama- 47%(-1)
Romney-50%(+1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 25, 2012, 04:13:08 PM
These advantages with independents undergird a sizable, 19 percentage-point Romney lead over Obama on the horse race. Should that advantage stick, it would be the sharpest tilt among independents in a  presidential election since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide win.




Dominating!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 25, 2012, 04:13:32 PM
And to dispel doubts about their bias among Republicans, the WasPost/ABC Tracking Poll puts Romney up 3.
Obama- 47%(-1)
Romney-50%(+1)

When it's a tie in NC and FL? Hahaha, I don't think so.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 25, 2012, 04:14:49 PM
And to dispel doubts about their bias among Republicans, the WasPost/ABC Tracking Poll puts Romney up 3.
Obama- 47%(-1)
Romney-50%(+1)

When it's a tie in NC and FL? Hahaha, I don't think so.


It's actually a 3 point lead in Virginia. Lines up great with this poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 25, 2012, 04:17:03 PM
It's actually a 3 point lead in Virginia. Lines up great with this poll.

Only Rasmussen has Romney ahead in VA.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: DrScholl on October 25, 2012, 04:19:36 PM
Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 25, 2012, 04:21:34 PM
And to dispel doubts about their bias among Republicans, the WasPost/ABC Tracking Poll puts Romney up 3.
Obama- 47%(-1)
Romney-50%(+1)

When it's a tie in NC and FL? Hahaha, I don't think so.

Because, it isn't.  


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 25, 2012, 04:29:33 PM
Obama is below 47 in the RCP (without Zogy 46.66) with less than two weeks out.  This election is over. :D


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 25, 2012, 04:30:50 PM
Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.


Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Devils30 on October 25, 2012, 04:33:10 PM
Romney might be winning in places like KY, AR, WV, TN with 61-64%. That's one of the things that could somewhat explain this huge state/national gap.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on October 25, 2012, 04:35:01 PM
Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.


Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.

Of the state polls on the front page here, the only ones that are good news for Romney are one Uni poll, one no-name poll, three Rassies, and one from the spectacularly brilliant firm Foster McCollum White Baydoun.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 25, 2012, 04:36:12 PM
It comes down to OHIO. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Republic on October 25, 2012, 04:37:51 PM

That's truly some eye-opening analysis there.  You should contact the network news post haste!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 25, 2012, 04:38:08 PM
Thursday Summary

Rand:      Obama +4  (-)  
TIPP:      Obama +2  (R+1)
UPI:       Obama +2  [no new poll]
PPP:       Obama +1  (O+1)
Reuters:   Romney +1 (-)
ABC:       Romney +3 (R+2)
Gallup:    Romney +3 (-)
Rasmussen: Romney +3 (O+1)
  
Average: Romney +0.1 (R+0.1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: DrScholl on October 25, 2012, 04:39:05 PM
Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.


Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.

What polls are you talking about? All Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada polls have shown Obama with an edge.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 25, 2012, 04:43:00 PM
Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.


Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.

What polls are you talking about? All Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada polls have shown Obama with an edge.

The same polls Dick Morris saw.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on October 25, 2012, 04:44:15 PM

Oh, good. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=162696.0)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 25, 2012, 05:02:53 PM

That's truly some eye-opening analysis there.  You should contact the network news post haste!

On this site, you need to state the obvious.  :)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 25, 2012, 05:17:38 PM

That's truly some eye-opening analysis there.  You should contact the network news post haste!

On this site, you need to state the obvious.  :)

Not that it matters anyway with people like you.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 25, 2012, 05:24:44 PM
Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.


Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.

Of the state polls on the front page here, the only ones that are good news for Romney are one Uni poll, one no-name poll, three Rassies, and one from the spectacularly brilliant firm Foster McCollum White Baydoun.

So you just ignored 6 polls. Kudos.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 25, 2012, 05:30:56 PM
Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.


Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.

What polls are you talking about? All Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada polls have shown Obama with an edge.

No, Romney has been tied in 3 Ohio polls. I welcome you to ignore them.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Badger on October 25, 2012, 05:59:53 PM
Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.


Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.

Of the state polls on the front page here, the only ones that are good news for Romney are one Uni poll, one no-name poll, three Rassies, and one from the spectacularly brilliant firm Foster McCollum White Baydoun.

So you just ignored 6 polls. Kudos.

Considering their source, can you offer any specific reason not to ignore them (or at least take them with a rock of salt)?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 25, 2012, 06:25:56 PM
Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.


Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.

Of the state polls on the front page here, the only ones that are good news for Romney are one Uni poll, one no-name poll, three Rassies, and one from the spectacularly brilliant firm Foster McCollum White Baydoun.

So you just ignored 6 polls. Kudos.

Considering their source, can you offer any specific reason not to ignore them (or at least take them with a rock of salt)?

Several of them are from good pollsters and the MOE's overlap. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 25, 2012, 07:08:57 PM
Today looks like a big win for no-mentum.

By the way, is it me or are we getting way fewer non-tracking national polls this year than we usually get?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Badger on October 25, 2012, 07:19:18 PM
Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.


Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.

Of the state polls on the front page here, the only ones that are good news for Romney are one Uni poll, one no-name poll, three Rassies, and one from the spectacularly brilliant firm Foster McCollum White Baydoun.

So you just ignored 6 polls. Kudos.

Considering their source, can you offer any specific reason not to ignore them (or at least take them with a rock of salt)?

Several of them are from good pollsters and the MOE's overlap. 

Which ones are "good" JJ? Rasmussen, the uni poll, or the no names including one claiming MI---FREAKIN' MI--is tied?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 25, 2012, 07:25:57 PM
Today looks like a big win for no-mentum.

By the way, is it me or are we getting way fewer non-tracking national polls this year than we usually get?

Not just you. It's pretty annoying too, since those are usually the good ones.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 25, 2012, 07:31:14 PM
Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.


Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.

Of the state polls on the front page here, the only ones that are good news for Romney are one Uni poll, one no-name poll, three Rassies, and one from the spectacularly brilliant firm Foster McCollum White Baydoun.

So you just ignored 6 polls. Kudos.

Considering their source, can you offer any specific reason not to ignore them (or at least take them with a rock of salt)?

Several of them are from good pollsters and the MOE's overlap. 

Which ones are "good" JJ? Rasmussen, the uni poll, or the no names including one claiming MI---FREAKIN' MI--is tied?

I'm talking about Ohio


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Badger on October 25, 2012, 09:00:48 PM
Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.


Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.

Of the state polls on the front page here, the only ones that are good news for Romney are one Uni poll, one no-name poll, three Rassies, and one from the spectacularly brilliant firm Foster McCollum White Baydoun.

So you just ignored 6 polls. Kudos.

Considering their source, can you offer any specific reason not to ignore them (or at least take them with a rock of salt)?

Several of them are from good pollsters and the MOE's overlap. 

Which ones are "good" JJ? Rasmussen, the uni poll, or the no names including one claiming MI---FREAKIN' MI--is tied?

I'm talking about Ohio

Fine. Same question--regarding Ohio.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 25, 2012, 09:11:19 PM
Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.


Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.

Of the state polls on the front page here, the only ones that are good news for Romney are one Uni poll, one no-name poll, three Rassies, and one from the spectacularly brilliant firm Foster McCollum White Baydoun.

So you just ignored 6 polls. Kudos.

Considering their source, can you offer any specific reason not to ignore them (or at least take them with a rock of salt)?

Several of them are from good pollsters and the MOE's overlap. 

Which ones are "good" JJ? Rasmussen, the uni poll, or the no names including one claiming MI---FREAKIN' MI--is tied?

I'm talking about Ohio

Fine. Same question--regarding Ohio.

Rasmussen, Suffolk and Angus Reid; none of those are no name, though Suffolk is a Uni poll.  We also have a PPP at +1 Obama.  We have some that are not, CNN/Time, Quinnipiac.  And we have Pharos, that from what I can find is a business research firm. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 25, 2012, 10:41:43 PM
PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 25, 2012, 10:44:10 PM
PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!

and I know how thrilled you are about that.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ty440 on October 25, 2012, 10:48:41 PM
PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!

Yawn...Romney is running up the white vote in Texas and Georgia.

Obama is holding his own with whites in Ohio,and that's where it counts.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 25, 2012, 10:49:59 PM
Romney continues to dominate among whites!

Weird how I'm just not seeing it on the ground.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 25, 2012, 10:52:18 PM
PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!

Yawn...Romney is running up the white vote in Texas and Georgia.

Obama is holding his own with whites in Ohio,and that's where it counts.

Mathematically illogical. Those are 2 of the least white states in the nation.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 25, 2012, 10:55:02 PM
Mathematically illogical. Those are 2 of the least white states in the nation.

Whites in the Deep South vote Republican by margins that are simply unbelievable. I'm talking 80% in some states.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ty440 on October 25, 2012, 10:58:16 PM
PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!

Yawn...Romney is running up the white vote in Texas and Georgia.

Obama is holding his own with whites in Ohio,and that's where it counts.

Mathematically illogical. Those are 2 of the least white states in the nation.

Shock poll Romney only +6 with whites in Ohio

Time Ohio poll  (nailed it in 2008)

While Romney is winning 49% of white voters, Obama is still attracting the support of 43% of that demographic group,


Read more: http://swampland.time.com/2012/10/24/time-poll-obama-leads-by-5-in-ohio/#ixzz2ANF95uX3


developing...




Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Badger on October 25, 2012, 11:15:53 PM
PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!

and I know how thrilled you are about that.

Racial solidarity is very important to you, isn't it Krazen?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Badger on October 25, 2012, 11:21:27 PM
Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.


Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.

Of the state polls on the front page here, the only ones that are good news for Romney are one Uni poll, one no-name poll, three Rassies, and one from the spectacularly brilliant firm Foster McCollum White Baydoun.

So you just ignored 6 polls. Kudos.

Considering their source, can you offer any specific reason not to ignore them (or at least take them with a rock of salt)?

Several of them are from good pollsters and the MOE's overlap. 

Which ones are "good" JJ? Rasmussen, the uni poll, or the no names including one claiming MI---FREAKIN' MI--is tied?

I'm talking about Ohio

Fine. Same question--regarding Ohio.

Rasmussen, Suffolk and Angus Reid; none of those are no name, though Suffolk is a Uni poll.  We also have a PPP at +1 Obama.  We have some that are not, CNN/Time, Quinnipiac.  And we have Pharos, that from what I can find is a business research firm. 

Of which, only the first three even show Romney tied.

So again, are you sticking by the uni pollster being reliable, Rassy, or Angus whatsis?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 26, 2012, 12:28:59 AM
Problem is, the state polls are showing no movement toward Romney. At this point, the national polls are more or less useless, because Romney is likely over performing in places where he doesn't need to over perform, therefore producing a national lead.


Not if you decide to ignore a bunch of them, no.

Of the state polls on the front page here, the only ones that are good news for Romney are one Uni poll, one no-name poll, three Rassies, and one from the spectacularly brilliant firm Foster McCollum White Baydoun.

So you just ignored 6 polls. Kudos.

Considering their source, can you offer any specific reason not to ignore them (or at least take them with a rock of salt)?

Several of them are from good pollsters and the MOE's overlap. 

Which ones are "good" JJ? Rasmussen, the uni poll, or the no names including one claiming MI---FREAKIN' MI--is tied?

I'm talking about Ohio

Fine. Same question--regarding Ohio.

Rasmussen, Suffolk and Angus Reid; none of those are no name, though Suffolk is a Uni poll.  We also have a PPP at +1 Obama.  We have some that are not, CNN/Time, Quinnipiac.  And we have Pharos, that from what I can find is a business research firm. 

Of which, only the first three even show Romney tied.

So again, are you sticking by the uni pollster being reliable, Rassy, or Angus whatsis?

I would also add PPP, which has a D lean (not that Rasmussen doesn't have an R lean).    I think that we are talking about a tie.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 26, 2012, 12:31:47 AM
I recall you wanting more info from PPP to see if Romney was surging in OH and WI before you were comfortable in your prediction?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 26, 2012, 07:08:48 AM
PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!

and I know how thrilled you are about that.

Racial solidarity is very important to you, isn't it Krazen?

No, but winning the election is. The polls show that the path of victory leans toward rallying white males who favor God, guns, proper marriage, and football.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 26, 2012, 08:06:48 AM
Is PPP coming back to earth on the turnout??? I believe it was D+4

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (PPP Tracking)
Mitt Romney (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on October 26, 2012, 08:43:56 AM
Now we know why the gallop tracker is so much more favorable to Willard than others, they are finding a much whiter, more Republican electorate.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 26, 2012, 08:47:08 AM
Lol, they are finding an electorate like 08.  I've been telling you your terrible three are skewing demographics to get their skewed turnout models, but oh no.  You'll see. :D


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 26, 2012, 09:13:00 AM
Lol, they are finding an electorate like 08.  I've been telling you your terrible three are skewing demographics to get their skewed turnout models, but oh no.  You'll see. :D

The last time I checked this country is more, not less diverse today than it was in 2008.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 26, 2012, 09:15:05 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney:  50, u

Obama:  47, u


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 26, 2012, 09:20:57 AM
Lol, they are finding an electorate like 08.  I've been telling you your terrible three are skewing demographics to get their skewed turnout models, but oh no.  You'll see. :D

The last time I checked this country is more, not less diverse today than it was in 2008.

From what demographics we have, the electorate is slightly blacker, a fairly good bit older, and more Republican. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on October 26, 2012, 09:54:02 AM
Gallup's likely voter make up is a little confusing. What Gallup are comparing are their own figures from both 2004 and 2008 based on their pre-election polls, not the exit polls. Whites made up 82% of the voting electorate in 2004 and 78% in 2008 according to Gallup yet the exit polls had them 77% and 74% respectively.

The exit polls showed the following breakdown in 2008:

White 74%
Black 13%
Hispanic 9%
Asian 2%
Others 2%

Therefore if Gallup are not seeing a huge movement from 2008 then we would expect 2012 to look like this

White 74%
Black 12%
Hispanic 10%
Asian 2%
Others 2%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 26, 2012, 11:13:50 AM
ABC/Washington post

Obama-48(+1)
Romney-49(-1)



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 26, 2012, 11:16:08 AM
ABC/Washington post

Obama-48(+1)
Romney-49(-1)



Nice! Gallup and Rasmussen are still in la la land. I was worried about this one though...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 26, 2012, 11:17:26 AM
Romney leads by 20 among Indies.

I don't like this ...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: opebo on October 26, 2012, 11:19:05 AM
Lol, they are finding an electorate like 08.  I've been telling you your terrible three are skewing demographics to get their skewed turnout models, but oh no.  You'll see. :D

The last time I checked this country is more, not less diverse today than it was in 2008.

Yes, just think of all the old white people who have died off in Florida and Ohio over the last four years, and all the black and hispanic citizens who have reached voting age during that time.  It is really heartwarming.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: LiberalJunkie on October 26, 2012, 11:21:31 AM
Romney leads by 20 among Indies.

I don't like this ...

A lot of them are really the tea party people that ID as "Independant" that's why Romney is leading with them everywhere but still losing states.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 26, 2012, 11:25:05 AM
People on Daily Kos are saying there's a brand spankin' new Rand poll that says Obama is up by 6. I'm talking brand new, folks. But I haven't seen it mentioned here yet.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 26, 2012, 11:26:38 AM
Romney leads by 20 among Indies.

I don't like this ...

But Obama always has a smashing lead among self-described moderates. If he was losing moderates, I'd be worried.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on October 26, 2012, 11:28:17 AM
Romney leads by 20 among Indies.

I don't like this ...

A lot of them are really the tea party people that ID as "Independant" that's why Romney is leading with them everywhere but still losing states.

^^^^ This. Hence, ignore the Umengites who post ROMNEY WINNING INDIES BY A MILLION on every poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on October 26, 2012, 11:31:13 AM
Romney leads by 20 among Indies.

I don't like this ...

A lot of them are really the tea party people that ID as "Independant" that's why Romney is leading with them everywhere but still losing states.

^^^^ This. Hence, ignore the Umengites who post ROMNEY WINNING INDIES BY A MILLION on every poll.

... and who simultaneously complain that there aren't enough Republicans in those same polls, pretending that there's no connection between the two phenomena.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: evan83 on October 26, 2012, 11:45:02 AM
So are those ABC tracking numbers the reason Mitt is undergoing a mini-collapse on Intrade at the moment?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 26, 2012, 11:46:30 AM
So are those ABC tracking numbers the reason Mitt is undergoing a mini-collapse on Intrade at the moment?

It is likely the ARG Ohio poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on October 26, 2012, 11:56:38 AM
So are those ABC tracking numbers the reason Mitt is undergoing a mini-collapse on Intrade at the moment?

It is likely the ARG Ohio poll.
Or just the unwinding of the unwarranted rise in Romney's Intrade numbers a few days ago. The other betting markets never jumped on that particular bandwagon, so it's only natural that Intrade would revert to the mean at some point.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 26, 2012, 12:11:11 PM
()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: dirks on October 26, 2012, 12:12:09 PM
Gallup 10/26/12

Romney - 51
Obama - 46


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: dirks on October 26, 2012, 12:14:10 PM

gore slowly started closing right about now...and the DWI cover-up really tightened things up in the last few days

Bush's "compassionate conservative" act...which seems silly now, was actually resonating, they were doing a tremendous job presenting him as a centrist and getting a lot of crossover votes for Dems. Dems in general were very slow to get excited and embrace gore. They came around at the very very end


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 26, 2012, 12:16:35 PM
Gallup 10/26/12

Romney - 51
Obama - 46

Good grief, they are delusional.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 26, 2012, 12:22:34 PM
Obama surged in RAND today, to his highest level ever.

Obama: 50.56%
Romney: 44.64%

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: dirks on October 26, 2012, 12:23:34 PM

they were right on the money in 1984, 1996 and 2004...and were very accurate with Obama's final number in 2008. They also got Bush Sr. final number correct in 1988

If anything Gallup historically predicts the GOP candidate to get a little less than he actually does


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 26, 2012, 12:24:56 PM
Obama surged in RAND today, to his highest level ever.

Obama: 50.56%
Romney: 44.64%

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

It's a RANDSLIDE!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: dirks on October 26, 2012, 12:25:40 PM
Rand is pretty much bunk, same with that intrade garbage


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 26, 2012, 12:26:42 PM
People on Daily Kos are saying there's a brand spankin' new Rand poll that says Obama is up by 6. I'm talking brand new, folks. But I haven't seen it mentioned here yet.

Nobody listens to Daily Kos.  They are too far to the left.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 26, 2012, 12:26:57 PM

they were right on the money in 1984, 1996 and 2004...and were very accurate with Obama's final number in 2008. They also got Bush Sr. final number correct in 1988

If anything Gallup historically predicts the GOP candidate to get a little less than he actually does

Not really. In 2010 they said the GOP would win the congressional ballot by fifteen points; they actually won it by 7.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 26, 2012, 12:27:12 PM

they were right on the money in 1984, 1996 and 2004...and were very accurate with Obama's final number in 2008. They also got Bush Sr. final number correct in 1988

This is 2012.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 26, 2012, 12:28:05 PM

Why? Because Romney is ahead? I don't know if you know this, but this election is far from over.  Nobody knows who is going to win.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 26, 2012, 12:29:06 PM

they were right on the money in 1984, 1996 and 2004...and were very accurate with Obama's final number in 2008. They also got Bush Sr. final number correct in 1988

If anything Gallup historically predicts the GOP candidate to get a little less than he actually does

Not really. In 2010 they said the GOP would win the congressional ballot by fifteen points; they actually won it by 7.

They were also off in 2000. Silver says it best, when Gallup has wild swings like these......then chances are they are wrong.

Reuters

Obama-47(+1)
Romney-46(-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 26, 2012, 12:42:49 PM

Why? Because Romney is ahead? I don't know if you know this, but this election is far from over.  Nobody knows who is going to win.

Jeff, let's say for now that it's truly a knife-edge race and "nobody knows who is going to win." If so, a five-point lead by Romney is indicating a sizable chance that Romney has sewn up the race and can't lose. That's inconsistent with "nobody knows who is going to win," and the state polling has shown consistently that Obama is favored to win by a narrow margin.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 26, 2012, 01:00:16 PM
IBD/TIPP essentially unchanged from yesterday, though Obama's lead increases from 2% to 2.3%.

Obama: 46.9%
Romney: 44.6%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 26, 2012, 01:18:48 PM
Friday Summary (w/UPI)

Rand:      Obama +6  (O+2) 
TIPP:      Obama +2  (-)
UPI*:      Obama +1  (R+1)
Reuters:   Obama +1  (O+2)
PPP:       TIED      (R+1)
ABC:       Romney +1 (O+2)
Rasmussen: Romney +3 (-)
Gallup:    Romney +5 (R+2)
 
Average:   Obama +0.1 (O+0.2)


*UPI Poll 1 day old


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on October 26, 2012, 02:49:41 PM
Gallup remains the outlier.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ZuWo on October 26, 2012, 03:11:14 PM

And RAND, of course.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 26, 2012, 03:15:41 PM

RAND isn't included in most polling averages.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 26, 2012, 03:20:31 PM
It is in our own, however.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on October 26, 2012, 04:22:34 PM

O +6, O +2, O +1, O+1, TIED, R + 1, R + 3, R + 5

You did not take statistics.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 26, 2012, 04:27:45 PM
Can someone confirm that ABC/WaPo only count the 'certain to vote', and don't include those who will 'probably vote'?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 26, 2012, 04:30:05 PM
If you pull the high and low polls (Rand and Gallup) then today's average is a tie. Not that I think that's the right way to do things. I don't think you can completely dismiss any poll. If Gallup's assessment of the electorate (notably the white/non-white mix) is correct, then Romney is going to win, probably in a big way. I'm guessing the Rand mix shows the opposite (although not sure they have revealed their demographics).   Right now the difference in polling comes down to a combo of random noise and LV model assumptions (and in some cases active weighting).

In a couple of weeks we will know who was 'right' but for now there is no consensus in the results because the assumptions are different.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 26, 2012, 04:33:07 PM
Can someone confirm that ABC/WaPo only count the 'certain to vote', and don't include those who will 'probably vote'?

Daily Kos had some stuff about this last night, and yes, ABC only counts the "certain" crowd. And they eliminate half of them too.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 26, 2012, 04:48:32 PM
What site can I go to other than politico that shows the national polls?  For some reason, Politico.com has no polls from today.  I don't know if there aren't any, or they just haven't updated them, yet.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 26, 2012, 04:49:59 PM
Real Clear Politics, Pollster.com, Talking Points Memo, Politicalwire.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 26, 2012, 04:55:03 PM
Cool, thanks!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Badger on October 26, 2012, 06:10:38 PM
PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!

and I know how thrilled you are about that.

Racial solidarity is very important to you, isn't it Krazen?

No, but winning the election is. The polls show that the path of victory leans toward rallying white males who favor God, guns, proper marriage, and football.

Oh bull$%#t. Your recent comments elsewhere regarding "the war on whites" makes your racism not even latent.

Yet again, another poster who can't distinguish the VERY wide difference between "principled conservative" and "racist ass".


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 26, 2012, 08:41:18 PM
PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!

and I know how thrilled you are about that.

Racial solidarity is very important to you, isn't it Krazen?

No, but winning the election is. The polls show that the path of victory leans toward rallying white males who favor God, guns, proper marriage, and football.

Oh bull$%#t. Your recent comments elsewhere regarding "the war on whites" makes your racism not even latent.

Yet again, another poster who can't distinguish the VERY wide difference between "principled conservative" and "racist ass".

Now its racist to vote against barack obama? You're a funny guy! By the way, recent polls show white males going for Romney by 30 points.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Badger on October 26, 2012, 09:11:18 PM
PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!

and I know how thrilled you are about that.

Racial solidarity is very important to you, isn't it Krazen?

No, but winning the election is. The polls show that the path of victory leans toward rallying white males who favor God, guns, proper marriage, and football.

Oh bull$%#t. Your recent comments elsewhere regarding "the war on whites" makes your racism not even latent.

Yet again, another poster who can't distinguish the VERY wide difference between "principled conservative" and "racist ass".

Now its racist to vote against barack obama? You're a funny guy! By the way, recent polls show white males going for Romney by 30 points.

In what alternate universe did I say anything remotely like that? You're a delusional guy!

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ty440 on October 26, 2012, 10:02:12 PM
PPP is back to a 48-48 tie.

Romney continues to dominate among whites!

and I know how thrilled you are about that.

Racial solidarity is very important to you, isn't it Krazen?

No, but winning the election is. The polls show that the path of victory leans toward rallying white males who favor God, guns, proper marriage, and football.

Oh bull$%#t. Your recent comments elsewhere regarding "the war on whites" makes your racism not even latent.

Yet again, another poster who can't distinguish the VERY wide difference between "principled conservative" and "racist ass".

Now its racist to vote against barack obama? You're a funny guy! By the way, recent polls show white males going for Romney by 30 points.

Not here in the great state of Ohio they aren't.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: krazen1211 on October 26, 2012, 10:08:06 PM
In what alternate universe did I say anything remotely like that? You're a delusional guy!

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.


Haha! You're a funny guy!

If there's block voting, its by nonwhite females. The Republican party is forced to look elsewhere due to this block voting.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 26, 2012, 10:11:09 PM
In what alternate universe did I say anything remotely like that? You're a delusional guy!

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.


Haha! You're a funny guy!

If there's block voting, its by nonwhite females. The Republican party is forced to look elsewhere due to this block voting.

Or you know... pursue policies that will attract them?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 26, 2012, 10:11:53 PM
PPP Tracker

Obama - 48
Romney - 48


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 26, 2012, 10:17:08 PM
Quote
Over the last 3 nights of our national tracking 581 respondents said they were voting for Obama, 581 for Romney, 38 undecided

jesus


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 26, 2012, 11:03:32 PM

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.

Why is it "racist" to express "glee" that a bloc of voters is strongly in favor of your candidate?  Would citing the black vote in a state be equally racist? 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 26, 2012, 11:06:03 PM

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.

Why is it "racist" to express "glee" that a bloc of voters is strongly in favor of your candidate?  Would citing the black vote in a state be equally racist? 

JJ... you're not stupid. If you've read his posts enough, you know exactly what he means, and no amount of feigned outrage will change it.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 27, 2012, 12:03:08 AM

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.

Why is it "racist" to express "glee" that a bloc of voters is strongly in favor of your candidate?  Would citing the black vote in a state be equally racist? 

JJ... you're not stupid. If you've read his posts enough, you know exactly what he means, and no amount of feigned outrage will change it.

Not feigned outrage. 

I think it perfectly reasonable to look at demographic groups and cheer when your side's demographic group turns out, or more strongly moves to your candidate.

I think it is the worst hypocrisy to assign a racist reason when the other side does the same thing.   


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 27, 2012, 12:10:29 AM

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.

Why is it "racist" to express "glee" that a bloc of voters is strongly in favor of your candidate?  Would citing the black vote in a state be equally racist? 

JJ... you're not stupid. If you've read his posts enough, you know exactly what he means, and no amount of feigned outrage will change it.

Not feigned outrage. 

I think it perfectly reasonable to look at demographic groups and cheer when your side's demographic group turns out, or more strongly moves to your candidate.

I think it is the worst hypocrisy to assign a racist reason when the other side does the same thing.   


....you've completely and utterly missed my point. You've ignored the specific poster's past contributions... analysis of the demographics is fine, but this is NOT what he's doing.

It's sad you don't understand nuance, and with that.... good evening.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 27, 2012, 12:25:38 AM

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.

Why is it "racist" to express "glee" that a bloc of voters is strongly in favor of your candidate?  Would citing the black vote in a state be equally racist? 

JJ... you're not stupid. If you've read his posts enough, you know exactly what he means, and no amount of feigned outrage will change it.

Not feigned outrage. 

I think it perfectly reasonable to look at demographic groups and cheer when your side's demographic group turns out, or more strongly moves to your candidate.

I think it is the worst hypocrisy to assign a racist reason when the other side does the same thing.   


....you've completely and utterly missed my point. You've ignored the specific poster's past contributions... analysis of the demographics is fine, but this is NOT what he's doing.

It's sad you don't understand nuance, and with that.... good evening.

I have followed the nuances.  There is nothing wrong with cheering the turnout of your side's supporters, or with stronger support of that group.  That is what krazen has been doing. 

Krazen hasn't been posting, from what I can tell, that we shouldn't have a black president or that black people shouldn't vote.  Krazen has posting about increased support for Romney with white voters.  He's happy about it, and I'd bet he'd be overjoyed if Romney would also increase his support with black voters. 

I'm certainly cheering the increased support Romney may be getting with women and Hispanic voters; I'd love for him to increase his support with black voters.

It is hypocritical to complain about this.   


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 27, 2012, 03:32:24 AM

with party id D +6 and whites at 70 %

Romney leads independents by 12.

I don't buy a Obama lead in Ohio with this result at national level.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 27, 2012, 04:31:46 AM

with party id D +6 and whites at 70 %

Romney leads independents by 12.

I don't buy a Obama lead in Ohio with this result at national level.

I do if Romney's lead in the South is big enough.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on October 27, 2012, 07:18:22 AM

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.

Why is it "racist" to express "glee" that a bloc of voters is strongly in favor of your candidate?  Would citing the black vote in a state be equally racist? 

JJ... you're not stupid. If you've read his posts enough, you know exactly what he means, and no amount of feigned outrage will change it.

Not feigned outrage. 

I think it perfectly reasonable to look at demographic groups and cheer when your side's demographic group turns out, or more strongly moves to your candidate.

I think it is the worst hypocrisy to assign a racist reason when the other side does the same thing.   


....you've completely and utterly missed my point. You've ignored the specific poster's past contributions... analysis of the demographics is fine, but this is NOT what he's doing.

It's sad you don't understand nuance, and with that.... good evening.

I have followed the nuances.  There is nothing wrong with cheering the turnout of your side's supporters, or with stronger support of that group.  That is what krazen has been doing. 

Krazen hasn't been posting, from what I can tell, that we shouldn't have a black president or that black people shouldn't vote.  Krazen has posting about increased support for Romney with white voters.  He's happy about it, and I'd bet he'd be overjoyed if Romney would also increase his support with black voters. 

I'm certainly cheering the increased support Romney may be getting with women and Hispanic voters; I'd love for him to increase his support with black voters.

It is hypocritical to complain about this.   

What about his "war on whites" meme? That is what shows his true colors. What do you think about that JJ?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 27, 2012, 07:20:06 AM


What about his "war on whites" meme? That is what shows his true colors. What do you think about that JJ?

Where are the "war on whites" posts.  Yes, it is possible I missed them. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 27, 2012, 08:26:35 AM


What about his "war on whites" meme? That is what shows his true colors. What do you think about that JJ?

Where are the "war on whites" posts.  Yes, it is possible I missed them. 

How convenient.
Maybe you should make an appointment with your ophthalmologist.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 27, 2012, 09:03:26 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney:  50, u

Obama:  46, -1


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 27, 2012, 09:06:03 AM


What about his "war on whites" meme? That is what shows his true colors. What do you think about that JJ?

Where are the "war on whites" posts.  Yes, it is possible I missed them. 





How convenient.
Maybe you should make an appointment with your ophthalmologist.

Okay, well where are these posts? 

Do I need an ophthalmologist or do you and Polnut need to visit a polygrapher? 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 27, 2012, 09:07:31 AM
The South will confirm every stereotype if Romney wins the popular vote, but loses the election based on strong support in the South alone...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 27, 2012, 09:08:09 AM
RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 27, 2012, 09:09:57 AM
The South will confirm every stereotype if Romney wins the popular vote, but loses the election based on strong support in the South alone...

Maybe not.  Romney's support could be very strong in the west, and in states like IN.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 27, 2012, 09:10:27 AM
The South will confirm every stereotype if Romney wins the popular vote, but loses the election based on strong support in the South alone...

Maybe it's time to bring back Reconstruction.

I'm being serious.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on October 27, 2012, 09:25:32 AM
Why do the Dems on this board laugh at any poll that goes to two decimal points but treat Rand as a great pollster.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 27, 2012, 09:27:56 AM
RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008. Rand is unknow and has a very special methodology... Even PPP show a tie with a D+6 party id. If you apply the same party id, ras and ppp give the same result.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 27, 2012, 09:29:31 AM
Why do the Dems on this board laugh at any poll that goes to two decimal points but treat Rand as a great pollster.

You have to remember the old rule.  If a poll favors Romney, throw it out.  If a poll favors Obama, keep it.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 27, 2012, 09:30:16 AM
The South will confirm every stereotype if Romney wins the popular vote, but loses the election based on strong support in the South alone...

Maybe it's time to bring back Reconstruction.

I'm being serious.

I'd love to see 80% of black voters voting Republican.  :)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Franzl on October 27, 2012, 09:32:07 AM
Why do the Dems on this board laugh at any poll that goes to two decimal points but treat Rand as a great pollster.

You have to remember the old rule.  If a poll favors Romney, throw it out.  If a poll favors Obama, keep it.

lol

Considering all the new Republican trolls on here....


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 27, 2012, 09:32:15 AM
You know what? We're going to know who was right and who was wrong in just over a week... It's such a pointless exercise. Arguing about this stuff doesn't make a tinkers cuss worth of difference.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 27, 2012, 09:46:27 AM
You know what? We're going to know who was right and who was wrong in just over a week... It's such a pointless exercise. Arguing about this stuff doesn't make a tinkers cuss worth of difference.

IIRC, RAND has an unusual system.  It is interesting to watch that.  Are they the future of polling or just a gimmick that is a piece of crap?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 27, 2012, 09:49:09 AM
Why do the Dems on this board laugh at any poll that goes to two decimal points but treat Rand as a great pollster.

You have to remember the old rule.  If a poll favors Romney, throw it out.  If a poll favors Obama, keep it.

lol

Considering all the new Republican trolls on here....

We do have a lot more Republican trolls on here that we didn't have before the first debate.

The reverse of my rule applies with them.  Keep the Romney polls, but throw out the Obama polls.

So, what do we have to do?  Follow polnut's advice.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on October 27, 2012, 09:52:15 AM


What about his "war on whites" meme? That is what shows his true colors. What do you think about that JJ?

Where are the "war on whites" posts.  Yes, it is possible I missed them. 





How convenient.
Maybe you should make an appointment with your ophthalmologist.

Okay, well where are these posts? 

Do I need an ophthalmologist or do you and Polnut need to visit a polygrapher? 

Registered Democrat 96% 3% 1% 235
Registered Undeclared 80% 11% 9% 295
Registered Republican 90% 4% 6% 207



Lol, junk. This poll does not reflect the war on whites.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RJ on October 27, 2012, 09:59:31 AM
Why do people pay attention to these national tracking polls??? There's no way either of these candidates are going to win this thing by 5% nationally! I doubt it's even 2.5%.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 27, 2012, 10:02:49 AM


What about his "war on whites" meme? That is what shows his true colors. What do you think about that JJ?

Where are the "war on whites" posts.  Yes, it is possible I missed them. 





How convenient.
Maybe you should make an appointment with your ophthalmologist.

Okay, well where are these posts? 

Do I need an ophthalmologist or do you and Polnut need to visit a polygrapher? 

Registered Democrat 96% 3% 1% 235
Registered Undeclared 80% 11% 9% 295
Registered Republican 90% 4% 6% 207



Lol, junk. This poll does not reflect the war on whites.

This is rather clearly a joke. 

Here is what he said further:




To quote you liberals and use your logic:

The universe in which a half dozen national pollsters have whites voting Republican by 20 points.



Obviously then, this poll is absurd due to a heavy mispolling of whites. Republicans have a large edge in voter registration in New Hampshire.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 27, 2012, 10:07:42 AM
RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010 (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 27, 2012, 10:41:44 AM
Romney is at his highest level yet in the Ras swing state tracking poll +6.  Doubtful Romney loses Ohio...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 27, 2012, 10:51:31 AM
Romney is at his highest level yet in the Ras swing state tracking poll +6.  Doubtful Romney loses Ohio...
Except for the fact that he's never lead in a poll in Ohio, or Nevada for that matter.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 27, 2012, 10:57:07 AM
Romney is at his highest level yet in the Ras swing state tracking poll +6.  Doubtful Romney loses Ohio...

He could just be up big in 2 or 3 states, NC and FL. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 27, 2012, 11:22:15 AM
Ipsos Reuters (Oct. 27):

47% Obama (+1)
45% Romney (nc)

The survey was conducted October 23-27. It sampled 1,665 registered voters and 1,291 likely voters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/27/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121027


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 27, 2012, 11:22:58 AM
Excellent. Support for Obama is clearly growing.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on October 27, 2012, 11:36:22 AM
Romney is at his highest level yet in the Ras swing state tracking poll +6.  Doubtful Romney loses Ohio...

He could just be up big in 2 or 3 states, NC and FL. 
Math doesn't work that way. The 11 states tracked are CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI.
If the average is Romney +6, and the average of all the states except NC and FL are a tossup (optimistic for Romney), then Romney would have to be leading by double digits in NC and FL.

Truth of the matter is: either Scotty is pulling numbers out of his ass on this poll, or on the North Carolina one. (or both)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 27, 2012, 12:31:22 PM
IBD/TIPP

Obama-46.6
Romney-44.5


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 27, 2012, 12:41:13 PM
RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010 (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/)

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 27, 2012, 12:42:18 PM
RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010 (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/)

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

And again, which election was more recent?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 27, 2012, 12:45:01 PM

wit D+7 and Romney leading independents by 11


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on October 27, 2012, 12:46:39 PM
RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010 (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/)

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.
They were hardly spectacular in 2008, missing the result in the seven most-polled states in the final week by around 2.5%, a slightly larger error than ARG or Zogby:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_IKhPZc5iEus/SfCoMmJLh7I/AAAAAAAAAEk/Ea5AlJ78Hho/S220/Wall+Street+Chart.jpg


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 27, 2012, 12:46:40 PM
RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010 (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/)

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

And again, which election was more recent?

it was not a presidential election. And the best of Rasmussen is his national tracking poll. His state polls can be wrong sometimes.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on October 27, 2012, 12:48:01 PM

wit D+7 and Romney leading independents by 11

So, what do you picture them doing when someone answers republican? Hangup the phone?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on October 27, 2012, 12:48:37 PM

wit D+7 and Romney leading independents by 11
As you know, of course, if Democrats were a smaller share of the sample, Romney wouldn't be doing so well with independents.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 27, 2012, 12:52:26 PM
RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010 (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/)

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

And again, which election was more recent?

it was not a presidential election. And the best of Rasmussen is his national tracking poll. His state polls can be wrong sometimes.

They were poor in 2000, good in 2004, and merely average in 2008.

Silver has already destroyed the myth of Rasmussen being accurate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ty440 on October 27, 2012, 01:06:17 PM
Ipsos Reuters (Oct. 27):

47% Obama (+1)
45% Romney (nc)

The survey was conducted October 23-27. It sampled 1,665 registered voters and 1,291 likely voters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/27/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121027

Obama Surging !


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 27, 2012, 01:45:36 PM
No change in Gallup's LV or RV polls today.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: dirks on October 27, 2012, 01:51:30 PM
Romney continues to thrash him in Gallup

Romney 51
obama - 46


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 27, 2012, 01:57:59 PM
The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 27, 2012, 01:58:45 PM
And Silver predicted 54 house pickups by GOP and Rasmussen by 55, so technically he sucked worse than Rasmussen, what a sterling and objective source you have there.

RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010 (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/)

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

And again, which election was more recent?

it was not a presidential election. And the best of Rasmussen is his national tracking poll. His state polls can be wrong sometimes.

They were poor in 2000, good in 2004, and merely average in 2008.

Silver has already destroyed the myth of Rasmussen being accurate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 27, 2012, 02:00:41 PM

wit D+7 and Romney leading independents by 11
As you know, of course, if Democrats were a smaller share of the sample, Romney wouldn't be doing so well with independents.

wrong and ppp proved that 2 weeks ago with his Romney +2 and +4 polls. Rasmussen says the same. Gallup too.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 27, 2012, 02:04:30 PM
The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.

the answer is in the party id of their sample...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Devils30 on October 27, 2012, 02:12:05 PM
As for House pickups, you do know it is extremely difficult to estimate this with 435 races across America. Silver's model was pretty good in being within 10 seats. Additionally, he had the GOP keeping NV and CO senate seats in 2010.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 27, 2012, 02:12:36 PM
The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.

the answer is in the party id of their sample...

()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on October 27, 2012, 02:14:50 PM
The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.

the answer is in the party id of their sample...

()

A vote for Obama has become a vote to debunk thousands of misconceptions about the nature of the universe.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 27, 2012, 02:15:47 PM
The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.

the answer is in the party id of their sample...

()

A vote for Obama has become a vote to debunk thousands of misconceptions about the nature of the universe.

If Obama loses, the Party IDers win.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 27, 2012, 02:17:48 PM
The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.

the answer is in the party id of their sample...

()

A vote for Obama has become a vote to debunk thousands of misconceptions about the nature of the universe.

If Obama loses, the Party IDers win.

a obama win will be due to a good democratic turnout= D+3, D+4,...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 27, 2012, 04:07:22 PM
No WaPo update today??? :(


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 27, 2012, 04:13:12 PM
The one tracker I've been secretly watching since they began is Reuters, primarily because they were the ONLY tracker in 2010 to get it right.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 27, 2012, 04:14:30 PM
Another day of no-mentum, plus no polls from UPI or ABC/WaPo

SaturdaySummary

POLL: Lead (day change)

Rand:     Obama +6  (-)  
TIPP:      Obama +2  (-)   
Reuters: Obama +2  (O+1)
UPI:       Obama +1  (no poll)   
PPP:       TIED      (-)   
ABC:      Romney +1 (no poll)   
Rasmussen: Romney +4 (R+1)
Gallup:    Romney +5 (-)   
  
Average:   Obama +0.1 (-)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 27, 2012, 06:18:13 PM
http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/10/rasmussen-and-gallup-vs-the-rest.html (http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/10/rasmussen-and-gallup-vs-the-rest.html)

...

Here's the Gallup/Rasmussen analysis of the race since September, if you just use those two polling outfits:

()

Here's the same graph in the same period for all the other polling organizations combined:

()

In the model with the least smoothing, Gallup and Rasmussen have shown a clear Romney lead since the beginning of September. Obama has never led the polls on that graph since September 1:

()

In all the other polls, on the same unsmoothed graph, Romney was only ahead from October 6 - 13; and then briefly on October 23.

So you either believe that Romney has held the national lead 100 percent of the time since September 1; or you believe that Obama has had the lead for 86 percent of the time since September 1. Obviously, the two models cannot both be true.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 27, 2012, 06:25:38 PM
I suspect that the methodology and/or samples feeding into Rasmussen, Gallup AND Rand are off the mark. None of them are currently matching up with state polling and all feel off. Or they are geniuses and have nailed the right view that everyone else missed. We shouldnt ignore them completely but the all seems to have an alternate view of the electorate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 27, 2012, 06:43:02 PM
Andrew Sullivan is still alive....thought he killed himself after the first debate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 27, 2012, 06:46:01 PM
Andrew Sullivan is still alive....thought he killed himself after the first debate.

His freakout is the clearest sign that he has become a bona fide Democrat.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 27, 2012, 09:07:43 PM
Where's ABC/WaPO daily tracker?

Was it a good day for Romney ::)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 27, 2012, 09:25:18 PM
They didn't publish it today for whatever reason. Probably because it's a Saturday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 27, 2012, 09:40:12 PM
Where's ABC/WaPO daily tracker?

Was it a good day for Romney ::)

Considering that's been the only non-Gallup/Ras tracker to be consistently more friendly for Romney I would suggest not resorting to ::)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 27, 2012, 09:45:31 PM
WaPo tracking will be released early tomorrow (thru Fri), early Monday (thu Sat) then back to 5PM release on Monday (thru Sun) per @jcpolls



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 27, 2012, 10:02:05 PM
Well that's a strange schedule, but okay.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 27, 2012, 10:49:36 PM
NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Romney up 1 in the PPP daily track, 49-48. Romney up 16(!) with independents. Sample is D+3. Obama approval 44-52.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: dirks on October 27, 2012, 11:38:12 PM
NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Romney up 1 in the PPP daily track, 49-48. Romney up 16(!) with independents. Sample is D+3. Obama approval 44-52.


Outstanding...seems like Obama's aproval is starting to collapse. Even DDD...ahem "PPP" is starting to lurch int he right direction


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 27, 2012, 11:40:27 PM
Obama's approvals have been consistently much lower than the consensus number, in PPP, for what it's worth.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on October 27, 2012, 11:45:38 PM
Which is going to be more fun, this tracker thread over the next six days, or the slew of final polls released next Sat-Mon? ;)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 28, 2012, 12:13:02 AM
Which is going to be more fun, this tracker thread over the next six days, or the slew of final polls released next Sat-Mon? ;)

I'll take unskewing the skewed for $1000 Alex.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on October 28, 2012, 12:51:14 AM
Why do the Dems on this board laugh at any poll that goes to two decimal points but treat Rand as a great pollster.

Actually RAND should be taken with a huge grain of salt. I think it's more interesting since due to their methodology they are bound to be more stable. But it depends too much on how good their initial sampling was and it can miss last minute changes in the composition of the electorate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2012, 12:57:34 AM
RAND is a novelty this season, we'll see how it turns out in the wash.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 28, 2012, 04:52:50 AM
PV/EC split is becoming more and more likely.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2012, 04:55:05 AM
While I still hope Obama will eek out a small PV win, I would bet money on a split.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 28, 2012, 04:57:38 AM
While I still hope Obama will eek out a small PV win, I would bet money on a split.

Eh, watching Republicans suddenly become champions of electoral reform will be pretty hilarious... I kind of want to see it.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 28, 2012, 05:02:02 AM
While I still hope Obama will eek out a small PV win, I would bet money on a split.

Yeah, I believe in the end it will be a 1968 like result: an ultra-narrow PV win but a rather comfortable EV win.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 28, 2012, 08:57:54 AM
Rasmussen (LV):

Romney:  50, u

Obama:  47, +1



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ty440 on October 28, 2012, 09:12:04 AM
DRUDGE REPORT SHOCK POLL: Obama surging

(insert drudge siren)

Rand Tracking Poll

Obama  51.15 +0.22
Romney 44.24 +0-.24

Developing..........


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 28, 2012, 11:49:33 AM
While I still hope Obama will eek out a small PV win, I would bet money on a split.

Yeah, I believe in the end it will be a 1968 like result: an ultra-narrow PV win but a rather comfortable EV win.

I agree.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 28, 2012, 12:05:06 PM
Gallup:

RV
Obama 48 (nc)
Romney 47 (-1)

LV
Romney 50 (-1)
Obama 46 (nc)

Weird that Gallup's registered numbers seem more in line with other polls than their likely voter numbers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on October 28, 2012, 12:12:28 PM
Ipsos/Reuters:

49-46 Obama

1% gain for Obama compared with yesterday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 28, 2012, 12:23:23 PM
Don't you mean 2 point, I thought it was 47-46.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 28, 2012, 12:24:34 PM
Don't you mean 2 point, I thought it was 47-46.

No, it was 47-45 yesterday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 28, 2012, 12:29:17 PM
Yeah, it was 47-45 yesterday, so

Obama 49 (+2)
Romney 46 (+1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 28, 2012, 12:34:22 PM
ABC/Washington Post updated but there wasn't any change to their last numbers.

Romney 49%
Obama 48%



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 28, 2012, 01:16:27 PM
IBD/TIPP Poll Obama +1.3
Obama 45.4 (-1.2)
Romney 44.1 (-.4)

This could be an understatement of Obama's support.
Obama leads by only 10 among those 18-44, 50-40.  He also only gets 84 percent of the black vote. He's all but guaranteed to get at least 92% of the vote among that demographic, which would translate to about another percentage point or two of support for the President.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 28, 2012, 01:24:11 PM
These tracking polls probably only have another day or two of being worth anything with Sandy coming...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on October 28, 2012, 01:28:06 PM
Those trackingpolls don't make sense anyway. One day, Obama increases on Rasmussen and Gallup but decreases on Ipsos, like today. And on other days it's completely reversed. These polls are all over the place.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ZuWo on October 28, 2012, 01:31:58 PM
Those trackingpolls don't make sense anyway. One day, Obama increases on Rasmussen and Gallup but decreases on Ipsos, like today. And on other days it's completely reversed. These polls are all over the place.

These seemingly random and even contradictory fluctuations (different national tracking polls showing good results for Obama and Romney on the same day) are probably the best indication that the race has stabilized at the moment and there is no clear momentum for any of the two candidates at least on the national level.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Earthling on October 28, 2012, 01:34:59 PM
Still, Obama is winning the race by 1 or 2 on some polls and losing the race by 3 or 4 on others. That maybe stable, but it doesn't tell us where the race is.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 28, 2012, 01:43:18 PM
Sunday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +7  (O+1)   [O+5]
Reuters:   Obama +3  (O+1)   [O+2] 
TIPP:      Obama +1  (R+1)   [R+5]   
PPP:       Romney +1 (R+1)   [-]   
ABC:       Romney +1 (-)     [N/A]   
Rasmussen: Romney +3 (O+1)   [R+1]
Gallup:    Romney +4 (O+1)   [O+3]   

UPI*:      (no poll)   

Average:   Obama +0.3 (O+0.3)    [O+0.7]


*last UPI poll 2 days old (Obama +1) not included in summary or average.




Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 28, 2012, 03:07:42 PM
ABC/Washington Post updated but there wasn't any change to their last numbers.

Romney 49%
Obama 48%



"NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
WaPo tracking poll (through Friday) has Romney up 1, 49-48. Romney leads indys by 16 and on economy by 7. Sample moved from D+4 to D+6. "

Good thing that sample changed ::)



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: dirks on October 28, 2012, 03:51:05 PM
ABC/Washington Post updated but there wasn't any change to their last numbers.

Romney 49%
Obama 48%



"NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
WaPo tracking poll (through Friday) has Romney up 1, 49-48. Romney leads indys by 16 and on economy by 7. Sample moved from D+4 to D+6. "




Good thing that sample changed ::)

Disgraceful attempt to try and skew towards Obama. Even with a completely unrealistic D+6...romney still leadds!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 28, 2012, 03:56:22 PM
ABC/Washington Post updated but there wasn't any change to their last numbers.

Romney 49%
Obama 48%



"NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
WaPo tracking poll (through Friday) has Romney up 1, 49-48. Romney leads indys by 16 and on economy by 7. Sample moved from D+4 to D+6. "




Good thing that sample changed ::)

Disgraceful attempt to try and skew towards Obama. Even with a completely unrealistic D+6...romney still leadds!


How many times are you guys going to have to have the whole Party ID thing explained to you?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: dirks on October 28, 2012, 03:58:13 PM
ABC/Washington Post updated but there wasn't any change to their last numbers.

Romney 49%
Obama 48%



"NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
WaPo tracking poll (through Friday) has Romney up 1, 49-48. Romney leads indys by 16 and on economy by 7. Sample moved from D+4 to D+6. "




Good thing that sample changed ::)

Disgraceful attempt to try and skew towards Obama. Even with a completely unrealistic D+6...romney still leadds!


How many times are you guys going to have to have the whole Party ID thing explained to you?

you're still pushing that long debunked myth that affiliation doesn't matter?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2012, 04:24:12 PM
I wonder if WaPo is still using the strictest LV screen out there... and also can you confirm D+6 in the actual poll post? Despite the fact that party ID is going to be THE straw man of this election...

Considering your "reporting" on the OH poll was wrong...

Interesting in Ras also, (despite his playing with party weighting), Romney getting 90% of GOPers and Obama getting only 86% of Dems? (I suppose that's an increase from 82%!?!? a couple of days ago)... so considering Obama's going to get about 90% of Democrats... even with his generous weighting, O-R would be... you guessed it, tied.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 28, 2012, 04:46:27 PM
Lol, if romney is +16 with independents you're going to need D+10> to win.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2012, 04:53:24 PM
Lol, if romney is +16 with independents you're going to need D+10> to win.

Considering the portion of 'Independents' that were GOPers in 2008, don't get too excited.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on October 28, 2012, 04:54:26 PM
Lol, if romney is +16 with independents you're going to need D+10> to win.
It's cute that Republicans think that they can keep Romney's current margin with independents while increasing the share of the electorate that identify as Republicans.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on October 28, 2012, 04:55:50 PM
ABC/Washington Post updated but there wasn't any change to their last numbers.

Romney 49%
Obama 48%



"NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
WaPo tracking poll (through Friday) has Romney up 1, 49-48. Romney leads indys by 16 and on economy by 7. Sample moved from D+4 to D+6. "




Good thing that sample changed ::)

Disgraceful attempt to try and skew towards Obama. Even with a completely unrealistic D+6...romney still leadds!


How many times are you guys going to have to have the whole Party ID thing explained to you?

you're still pushing that long debunked myth that affiliation doesn't matter?

A good example of this is actually... you, on this forum, since your avatar proclaims you're an independent yet you're rather obviously a partisan Republican of the kind that is a dime-a-dozen here.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 28, 2012, 04:57:12 PM
It's hilarious to see people scream. TOO MANY Ds/NOT ENOUGH Rs! and Indies SUPPORT ROMNEY! and not realize they solved their own dilemma already.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2012, 04:59:48 PM
It's hilarious to see people scream. TOO MANY Ds/NOT ENOUGH Rs! and Indies SUPPORT ROMNEY! and not realize they solved their own dilemma already.

Yaaaay!!! ;)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 28, 2012, 05:06:48 PM
It's hilarious to see people scream. TOO MANY Ds/NOT ENOUGH Rs! and Indies SUPPORT ROMNEY! and not realize they solved their own dilemma already.

What makes it even more funny is that some of the ones complaining about it(dirk) have green avatars.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on October 28, 2012, 05:31:30 PM
It's hilarious to see people scream. TOO MANY Ds/NOT ENOUGH Rs! and Indies SUPPORT ROMNEY! and not realize they solved their own dilemma already.

Yaaaay!!! ;)
I'd add that, if you're going to accuse almost all the pollsters in the country of lying about their methodology, then why even bother talking about any of the numbers they produce?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2012, 05:38:05 PM
Is lying too strong a word? I think the methodologies are just too varied and are having a hard time keeping up with changes.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 28, 2012, 10:50:57 PM
PPP is unchanged, Romney 49-48.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on October 28, 2012, 10:53:48 PM
How did Mitt Romney's favorable numbers leap above Obama's in such a big way? Historians will be left scratching their heads about that for decades. Gully/Al are probably right: this smacks of Cleggmania. Nothing Romney did outside of the media's change in narrative/hype can explain this and I doubt that voters are that fickle, especially when it comes to a caricicture like Mittens.

Obama's decline in approval ratings makes sense: that bump in September seemed artificial and driven by the DNC.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on October 28, 2012, 10:57:31 PM
Is lying too strong a word? I think the methodologies are just too varied and are having a hard time keeping up with changes.
Well, if someone thinks that a pollster is oversampling Democrats, and that pollster doesn't weight for party ID, then aren't they basically saying that the pollster is using a different method from the one the pollster claims to use?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: xavier110 on October 28, 2012, 10:58:16 PM

I don't understand the discrepancy between the national numbers and the state polls. Is Obama being decimated in the plain states and the south?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2012, 10:59:47 PM


I don't understand the discrepancy between the national numbers and the state polls. Is Obama being decimated in the plain states and the south?

Yes, pretty much.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on October 28, 2012, 11:01:10 PM

I don't understand the discrepancy between the national numbers and the state polls. Is Obama being decimated in the plain states and the south?

He's not being crushed at the levels necessary to explain the state of national polling. Even with the large swings against him in the traditionally anti-incumbent plains, the combination of demographic shifts/the last white Democrats ditching the party in the South and the sizeable swings in the Northeast, Obama is around 1-2 points ahead.

Color me skeptical.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2012, 11:08:02 PM

I don't understand the discrepancy between the national numbers and the state polls. Is Obama being decimated in the plain states and the south?

He's not being crushed at the levels necessary to explain the state of national polling. Even with the large swings against him in the traditionally anti-incumbent plains, the combination of demographic shifts/the last white Democrats ditching the party in the South and the sizeable swings in the Northeast, Obama is around 1-2 points ahead.

Color me skeptical.

It still don't get how it's close with Obama's approvals THAT underwater (as in weirdly out)...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 28, 2012, 11:10:28 PM
The state polls are consistent with an Obama lead nationally of 2% or so. I don't know why the national polls disagree, but I'm gonna put my trust in state polls before national ones.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fargobison on October 28, 2012, 11:26:13 PM
Yeah I have never really been able to understand why PPP's state numbers don't agree with their national numbers, if Romney is +1 nationally he certainly isn't tied in NC or -5 in VA. Rasmussen seems to be closer to what I'd expect.

I'm not saying one is better than the other, just an observation. It should be interesting to see what happens when PPP expands their polling to more states this week, I think they said they were going to do 20 different states.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 28, 2012, 11:39:44 PM
WaPo is also holding steady at 49-48, though this is through Saturday (instead of through Sunday for PPP).


Title: BREAKING: IDB/TIPP POLLING SUSPENDED INDEFINITELY DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 29, 2012, 12:09:24 AM
BREAKING: IDB/TIPP POLLING SUSPENDED INDEFINITELY DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on October 29, 2012, 01:25:35 AM
Yeah I have never really been able to understand why PPP's state numbers don't agree with their national numbers, if Romney is +1 nationally he certainly isn't tied in NC or -5 in VA. Rasmussen seems to be closer to what I'd expect.

I'm not saying one is better than the other, just an observation. It should be interesting to see what happens when PPP expands their polling to more states this week, I think they said they were going to do 20 different states.

Nah, Rasmussen's swing states tracker is at the same level as its last North Carolina poll. Exactly the same thing.


Title: Re: BREAKING: IDB/TIPP POLLING SUSPENDED INDEFINITELY DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY
Post by: Eraserhead on October 29, 2012, 02:53:28 AM
BREAKING: IDB/TIPP POLLING SUSPENDED INDEFINITELY DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY

They all need to follow suit. National polling is going to be useless for the next week imo.


Title: Re: BREAKING: IDB/TIPP POLLING SUSPENDED INDEFINITELY DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 29, 2012, 07:24:01 AM
BREAKING: IDB/TIPP POLLING SUSPENDED INDEFINITELY DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY

They all need to follow suit. National polling is going to be useless for the next week imo.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: DrScholl on October 29, 2012, 08:54:59 AM
Rasmussen

Romney 49
Obama 47


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 29, 2012, 10:41:51 AM
UPI

Obama-48
Romney-47


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on October 29, 2012, 12:27:57 PM

I don't understand the discrepancy between the national numbers and the state polls. Is Obama being decimated in the plain states and the south?

Obama might not win a single county in WV.  Just let that sink in. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 29, 2012, 12:30:13 PM
Obama might not win a single county in WV.

He will.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: dirks on October 29, 2012, 12:32:53 PM
Gallup 10/29/12

Romney - 51
Obama - 46


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 29, 2012, 01:34:00 PM
BREAKING: GALLUP DAILY TRACKING SUSPENDED DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY

It looks like it's up to Rasmussen and RAND to ride us through this storm.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 29, 2012, 02:04:45 PM
Haha, Gallup's crappy poll is saved by the bell. Good decision though.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 29, 2012, 02:56:25 PM
Rasmussen Advisory:

NOTE: Rasmussen Reports is based near where Hurricane Sandy is expected to come ashore. We are planning on providing our usual updates over the coming days, but there may be disruptions due to the storm and its aftermath. Our survey interview calls are placed from a different location, so data gathering will continue.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 29, 2012, 04:04:33 PM
ABC/WaPo

Romney 49% (nc)
Obama 49% (+1)

The Obama surge continues.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 29, 2012, 04:18:19 PM
Two interesting notes: Obama's approval rating (51-47) is his highest since July, and Romney's lead on the economy has shrunk from 51-44 two days ago to 49-47 today.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ty440 on October 29, 2012, 04:20:56 PM
ABC/WaPo

Romney 49% (nc)
Obama 49% (+1)

The Obama surge continues.

The Obama surge is like a tidal wave surging through  the country.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 29, 2012, 04:24:00 PM
Will ABC/WP keep polling after today though? They probably shouldn't.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 29, 2012, 04:26:29 PM
Obama also leads in the battlegrounds (minus North Carolina for some reason) 49-48 in the ABC/WP poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 29, 2012, 05:10:22 PM
Monday Summary 

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +6  (R+1)   [O+4]
Reuters:   Obama +1  (R+2)   [O+1] 
UPI:       Obama +1  (-)     [O+2]   
ABC:       TIED      (O+1)   [R+1]
PPP:       Romney +1 (-)     [R+1]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (O+1)   [-]
Gallup:    Romney +5 (R+1)   [O+1]   

TIPP:      (no poll)   

Average*:   TIED (R+0.3)    [O+0.9]

*TIPP not incluced, last poll Obama+1


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on October 29, 2012, 05:19:12 PM
PPP tweeted they will not be releasing their tracking poll tonight.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 29, 2012, 05:31:59 PM
Just noticed that the Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Obama+1 has Obama+10 in RV (51/41). Now that is a serious LV screen!
http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12137


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 29, 2012, 05:36:59 PM
Just noticed that the Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Obama+1 has Obama+10 in RV (51/41). Now that is a serious LV screen!
http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12137


Ah... ha?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 29, 2012, 05:43:09 PM
Just noticed that the Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Obama+1 has Obama+10 in RV (51/41). Now that is a serious LV screen!
http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12137


Ah... ha?

No other poll that I am aware of shows a 10 point gap with RV.  Am I correct in that.  Gallup doesn't.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 29, 2012, 05:49:11 PM
None of the trackers, but WaPo was close to that if I remember correctly... There was one... I don't remember now who by, but about 6 weeks ago that had a 10% LV/RV gap


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 29, 2012, 05:51:36 PM
Today's Ipsos poll is unusual. But there is a clear LV/RV thing going on. Nate Cohn wrote about it last week

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108963/daily-breakdown-obama-struggling-likely-voters



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on October 29, 2012, 07:01:40 PM
BREAKING: GALLUP DAILY TRACKING SUSPENDED DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY

It looks like it's up to Rasmussen and RAND to ride us through this storm.

Isn't RAND's gimmick that they use the same sample of people?  They have to stay in touch no matter what.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ty440 on October 29, 2012, 07:32:23 PM
Monday Summary 

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +6  (R+1)   [O+4]
Reuters:   Obama +1  (R+2)   [O+1] 
UPI:       Obama +1  (-)     [O+2]   
ABC:       TIED      (O+1)   [R+1]
PPP:       Romney +1 (-)     [R+1]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (O+1)   [-]
Gallup:    Romney +5 (R+1)   [O+1]   

TIPP:      (no poll)   

Average*:   TIED (R+0.3)    [O+0.9]

*TIPP not incluced, last poll Obama+1


Can anyone deny that Obama is surging in the polls?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 29, 2012, 07:35:41 PM
Monday Summary 

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +6  (R+1)   [O+4]
Reuters:   Obama +1  (R+2)   [O+1] 
UPI:       Obama +1  (-)     [O+2]   
ABC:       TIED      (O+1)   [R+1]
PPP:       Romney +1 (-)     [R+1]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (O+1)   [-]
Gallup:    Romney +5 (R+1)   [O+1]   

TIPP:      (no poll)   

Average*:   TIED (R+0.3)    [O+0.9]

*TIPP not incluced, last poll Obama+1


Can anyone deny that Obama is surging in the polls?

You are joking, right. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Dumbo on October 30, 2012, 05:59:00 AM
NPR national Romney +1


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on October 30, 2012, 09:39:59 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney:  49

Obama:  47


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 30, 2012, 12:55:34 PM
NOTE: Rasmussen Reports is based in Asbury Park, New Jersey and we were hit hard by Hurricane Sandy. We are operating on battery power and have limited access to the Internet. However, our survey interview calls are placed from a different location, so data gathering was able to continue. Today, we will release only data from the Presidential Tracking Poll. We hope to resume a more complete schedule tomorrow.

and

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters now think President Obama will win. That’s the first time it’s fallen below 50% all year. Forty-one percent (41%) believe Romney will win.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 30, 2012, 01:11:00 PM
It's very dumb for him to try to poll today.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 30, 2012, 01:54:57 PM
It's very dumb for him to try to poll today.

he reweights with party id so it's not a problem for him.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 30, 2012, 02:07:51 PM
PPP for daily kos (10/25-10/28):

O: 49
R: 49

Party id: D 39 R 37 I 24

Romney leads Indies by 6.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Torie on October 30, 2012, 03:47:23 PM
Haha, Gallup's crappy poll is saved by the bell. Good decision though.

Maybe Dick Morris can help you through some of your Gallup grumpiness Eraserhead.  It's almost morning in America! :)

()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 30, 2012, 03:50:43 PM
Most polls do not weigh based on Party ID. They weigh on things like race, age, etc. Things that are not fluid and do not wildly fluctuate from week to week, month to month.

Gallup, for the third year in a row, will prove to be a joke once again this year.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Torie on October 30, 2012, 03:59:35 PM
Most polls do not weigh based on Party ID. They weigh on things like race, age, etc. Things that are not fluid and do not wildly fluctuate from week to week, month to month.

Gallup, for the third year in a row, will prove to be a joke once again this year.

You caught that eh?  Very good. However, the thing is, is that nobody really knows the demographic shape of who will vote either. That too is a guesstimate. So the grand thing is, is that nobody really knows, and that almost anything could happen. Don't you just love the suspense?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 30, 2012, 04:25:08 PM
Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Torie on October 30, 2012, 04:36:14 PM
Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.

Well if the unthinkable for so many apparently actually happens, we will need to remember to be good Christians, and minister to their aches and pains and angst with empathy and compassion then. Does Atlasia have a "first aid" station?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 30, 2012, 04:57:47 PM
What Democrats think Obama is a lock to win? I certainly don't.

Favorite? Probably. Lock? No way.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 30, 2012, 05:00:06 PM
What Democrats think Obama is a lock to win? I certainly don't.

Favorite? Probably. Lock? No way.

Bushie is just having a crisis of Moderate Heroism.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 30, 2012, 05:09:10 PM
Tuesday  Summary  

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +5  (R+1)   [O+3]
Reuters:   Obama +1  (-)   [-]  
UPI:       Obama +1  (-)     [O+1]  
Zogby:   Romney +1 (O+1) [new]
ABC:       Romney +1 (R+1)   [-]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (-)   [O+2]


TIPP:      (no poll)  
PPP:       (no poll)
Gallup:    (no poll)

Average: Obama 0.3  (R+0.2) [O+1.2]

(Average w/ last TIPP, PPP and Gallup polls: Romney 0.2)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 30, 2012, 05:26:50 PM
What Democrats think Obama is a lock to win? I certainly don't.

Favorite? Probably. Lock? No way.

Bushie is just having a crisis of Moderate Heroism.

People may not personally think Obama's a lock, but it sure sounds that way from the posts.  I agree that he's probably the favorite, but he's far from a lock.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 30, 2012, 05:28:31 PM
What Democrats think Obama is a lock to win? I certainly don't.

Favorite? Probably. Lock? No way.

Close to lock, but by no means a certainty. I'd say this race is Lean Obama.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on October 30, 2012, 08:53:05 PM
It's very dumb for him to try to poll today.

he reweights with party id so it's not a problem for him.

So then why does Scott even bother to take the extra step of picking up the phone when his weighing system produces the result no matter what?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on October 31, 2012, 01:47:47 AM
It's very dumb for him to try to poll today.

he reweights with party id so it's not a problem for him.

So then why does Scott even bother to take the extra step of picking up the phone when his weighing system produces the result no matter what?

the same party id can give different results.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Franzl on October 31, 2012, 01:57:53 AM
Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.

Just go back to supporting Romney. It'll make you feel better and it'll improve your "independent minded" credentials.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 31, 2012, 12:54:16 PM
Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.

Just go back to supporting Romney. It'll make you feel better and it'll improve your "independent minded" credentials.

While I won't be upset if Romney wins, I just can't vote for him.  He has said some things that make me a little leary.  I think he would make a good president, and I like him as a person (said very few ever), but I think President Obama needs time to continue what he's started.  Everybody knew it would take more than 4 years to clean up the mess that Bush left.  He's done a pretty good job so far with what he's been given, but he needs more time.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on October 31, 2012, 01:23:58 PM
It's very dumb for him to try to poll today.

he reweights with party id so it's not a problem for him.

So then why does Scott even bother to take the extra step of picking up the phone when his weighing system produces the result no matter what?

He has an ongoing monthly survey that surveys the breakdowns of the electorate by party id.  He then weights his polls by party ID, however he's showing R+1 or better in the survey yet he's still weighting to D+3.

Why? I don't know, he seems to be playing it pretty safe.  Gallup is also showing R+2 but they seem to be closer to their weighting. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 31, 2012, 01:31:53 PM
Rasmussen moved weighting from D+3 to D+1 in mid October. May have moved it back but havent seen that cited


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 31, 2012, 02:02:10 PM
Reuters is still at Obama 47, Romney 46 today.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: DL on October 31, 2012, 02:07:20 PM
Just saw a tweet that PSRAI (Princeton Survey Research Associates International) just put out a national poll with Obama leading 50 to 45% nationally...a five point spread would actually be quite consistent with the statemwide polls we see

PollingReport.com ‏@pollreport

White House 2012: Obama-Biden 50% / Romney-Ryan 45% (National Journal/PSRAI, LV, 10/25-28) http://bit.ly/onIYJO


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on October 31, 2012, 02:11:43 PM
Just saw a tweet that PSRAI (Princeton Survey Research Associates International) just put out a national poll with Obama leading 50 to 45% nationally...a five point spread would actually be quite consistent with the statemwide polls we see

PollingReport.com ‏@pollreport

White House 2012: Obama-Biden 50% / Romney-Ryan 45% (National Journal/PSRAI, LV, 10/25-28) http://bit.ly/onIYJO

I saw it too, and someone on Daily Kos says they use a stiff LV screen. If there's high turnout, this is gonna be a blowout.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on October 31, 2012, 02:25:50 PM
Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.

Well if the unthinkable for so many apparently actually happens, we will need to remember to be good Christians, and minister to their aches and pains and angst with empathy and compassion then. Does Atlasia have a "first aid" station?

So you think the mormon will be able to get anything done? Especially tough things like cutting Medicare or Social Security? People get pissed at the cost controls already in place, imagine what happens when the program gets watered down even more, and by a non-christian no less!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Torie on October 31, 2012, 02:29:37 PM
Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.

Well if the unthinkable for so many apparently actually happens, we will need to remember to be good Christians, and minister to their aches and pains and angst with empathy and compassion then. Does Atlasia have a "first aid" station?

So you think the mormon will be able to get anything done? Especially tough things like cutting Medicare or Social Security? People get pissed at the cost controls already in place, imagine what happens when the program gets watered down even more, and by a non-christian no less!

Oh, I think whomever is elected is going to have an absolutely miserable time, as the just massive disconnect between campaign rhetoric and reality (of which both campaigns are totally and absolutely guilty) slowly percolates into the minds of the masses. They are in for a rude shock whomever is elected - and they won't be happy. They will feel like they were lied to actually.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 31, 2012, 02:36:20 PM
Well most of Romney's supporters are voting for him because they hope he's lying, so I doubt they'd be very disappointed.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sbane on October 31, 2012, 02:38:34 PM
Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.

Well if the unthinkable for so many apparently actually happens, we will need to remember to be good Christians, and minister to their aches and pains and angst with empathy and compassion then. Does Atlasia have a "first aid" station?

So you think the mormon will be able to get anything done? Especially tough things like cutting Medicare or Social Security? People get pissed at the cost controls already in place, imagine what happens when the program gets watered down even more, and by a non-christian no less!

Oh, I think whomever is elected is going to have an absolutely miserable time, as the just massive disconnect between campaign rhetoric and reality (of which both campaigns are totally and absolutely guilty) slowly percolates into the minds of the masses. They are in for a rude shock whomever is elected - and they won't be happy. They will feel like they were lied to actually.

They're all crooks! Rabble, Rabble, Rabble!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 31, 2012, 04:08:45 PM
I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done.  The Republicans will pout and cry and mope and block everything Obama wants to do.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will give Mitch McConnell a dose of his own medicine with the mantra "our goal is to make Romney a one-term president" and then pout and cry and mope and cry foul and block everything Romney wants to do.  I'm not exactly optimistic about getting things done in the next four years.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 31, 2012, 04:10:50 PM
ABC/WaPo

Obama 49% (+1)
Romney 49% (nc)

Obama also gets very high marks on the Sandy response. 79% of voters rate his response good or excellent.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 31, 2012, 04:28:09 PM
WednesdaySummary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +4  (R+1) [-]
Reuters:   Obama +1  (-)   [O+2]  
UPI:       TIED      (R+1) [R+2]  
ABC:       TIED      (O+1) [O+1]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (-)   [O+2]
Zogby:     Romney +3 (R+2) [new]

TIPP:      (no poll)  
PPP:       (no poll)
Gallup:    (no poll)  

Average*:   TIED (R+0.3)    [-]

*does not include TIPP, PPP or Gallup


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on October 31, 2012, 06:06:58 PM
I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done.  The Republicans will pout and cry and mope and block everything Obama wants to do.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will give Mitch McConnell a dose of his own medicine with the mantra "our goal is to make Romney a one-term president" and then pout and cry and mope and cry foul and block everything Romney wants to do.  I'm not exactly optimistic about getting things done in the next four years.

And if that happens, it will be almost entirely because Akin and Mourdock didn't know when to stop talking...



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 31, 2012, 06:13:17 PM
I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done.  The Republicans will pout and cry and mope and block everything Obama wants to do.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will give Mitch McConnell a dose of his own medicine with the mantra "our goal is to make Romney a one-term president" and then pout and cry and mope and cry foul and block everything Romney wants to do.  I'm not exactly optimistic about getting things done in the next four years.

And if that happens, it will be almost entirely because Akin and Mourdock didn't know when to stop talking...



Can't argue with that.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on October 31, 2012, 06:22:13 PM
I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done.  The Republicans will pout and cry and mope and block everything Obama wants to do.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will give Mitch McConnell a dose of his own medicine with the mantra "our goal is to make Romney a one-term president" and then pout and cry and mope and cry foul and block everything Romney wants to do.  I'm not exactly optimistic about getting things done in the next four years.

And if that happens, it will be almost entirely because Akin and Mourdock didn't know when to stop talking...



Can't argue with that.

Why is your username "Merry Christmas, America" on October 31st? ???


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 31, 2012, 06:22:47 PM
I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done.  The Republicans will pout and cry and mope and block everything Obama wants to do.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will give Mitch McConnell a dose of his own medicine with the mantra "our goal is to make Romney a one-term president" and then pout and cry and mope and cry foul and block everything Romney wants to do.  I'm not exactly optimistic about getting things done in the next four years.

And if that happens, it will be almost entirely because Akin and Mourdock didn't know when to stop talking...



Can't argue with that.

Why is your username "Merry Christmas, America" on October 31st? ???

It's Halloween, so Christmas Season has begun!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cinyc on October 31, 2012, 06:34:13 PM
Gallup resumes polling tomorrow (http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/2012/10/status-update-on-gallup-election.html).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 31, 2012, 06:38:19 PM
So Sandy is giving Gallup a reset with a whole new set of data. With most polls showing a national tie-ish, will they be back to Romney+5 (their last poll), or will it suddenly revert to the match other pollsters? We will find out on Monday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 31, 2012, 08:02:11 PM
Gallup resumes polling tomorrow (http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/2012/10/status-update-on-gallup-election.html).

Well, that's unfortunate.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on October 31, 2012, 10:46:01 PM
Gallup resumes polling tomorrow (http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/2012/10/status-update-on-gallup-election.html).

Well, that's unfortunate.

Meh, just take their polls, and all polls, with a grain of salt.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on November 01, 2012, 09:22:06 AM
Rasmussen (LV):

Romney:  49

Obama:  47


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 01, 2012, 09:49:12 AM
Rasmussen has been stuck at 49-47 for a while now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on November 01, 2012, 09:55:57 AM
Rasmussen has been stuck at 49-47 for a while now.

They tout their stability.  :)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: opebo on November 01, 2012, 10:15:35 AM
I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done. 

Doesn't matter if 'nothing gets done', the next four years will be cyclical boom, plummeting deficits and steadily declining unemployment.  Recipe for either 1) happy second term for Obama, or 2) fairly easy re-election for the Cuckoo.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Franzl on November 01, 2012, 10:16:34 AM
I agree with Torie, whoever wins is not going to have a very fun 4 years.  Nothing will get done. 

Doesn't matter if 'nothing gets done', the next four years will be cyclical boom, plummeting deficits and steadily declining unemployment.  Recipe for either 1) happy second term for Obama, or 2) fairly easy re-election for the Cuckoo.

It would be extremely painful to see Romney to take credit for that.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on November 01, 2012, 10:21:27 AM
Rasmussen has been stuck at 49-47 for a while now.

They tout their stability.  :)
Indeed, Scott Rasmussen has argued that Romney did not actually receive much of a bounce from the first debate -- that instead an always-close race shifted a point or two in Romney's direction. His methodology doesn't allow, for example, for an event like Romney's success in the first debate to get Republicans more excited about voting.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 01, 2012, 12:44:09 PM
Reuters/Ipsos is also still stuck at Obama 47-46.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 01, 2012, 02:16:02 PM
I do think there is evidence of a small shift toward Obama.  Keep in mind that national numbers will under-represent the Northeast for the remainder of the campaign, and it is probably statistically significant.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on November 01, 2012, 02:25:17 PM
I thnk that there is a little bump for Obama due to the storm.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 01, 2012, 02:33:58 PM
THE HURRICANE SANDY BUMP HAS BEGUN (says RAND):

Obama 50%
Romney 45% (-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on November 01, 2012, 02:56:54 PM
Gallup will not be releasing polls again until Monday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 01, 2012, 03:03:25 PM
Gallup will not be releasing polls again until Monday.

That poll will probably be the final poll since it is Election Day Eve.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 01, 2012, 04:05:43 PM
Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 01, 2012, 04:10:19 PM
Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

Movement toward Obama with NYC off the grid in the heart of the poll is pretty noteworthy.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 01, 2012, 04:10:40 PM
Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

The Bloomberg endorsement hurts him. I cringed when I read about it.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 01, 2012, 04:11:19 PM
Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

Movement toward Obama with NYC going off the grid in the heart of the poll is pretty noteworthy.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 01, 2012, 04:11:49 PM
Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

The Bloomberg endorsement hurts him. I cringed when I read about it.

Michael Bloomberg is incredibly popular in the heartland. Obama might have a chance at putting Indiana and Missouri back into play now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 01, 2012, 04:12:37 PM
Michael Bloomberg is incredibly popular in the heartland.

You've got to be joking.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on November 01, 2012, 04:12:38 PM
Thursday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +5  (O+1)      [O+1]
Reuters:      Obama +1  (-)           [O+2]  
ABC:            Obama +1  (O+1)     [O+4]
UPI:             TIED           (-)           [R+2]  
Zogby:         TIED           (O+3)     [new]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (-)          [O+1]

Average: Obama +0.7(O+0.7) [O+0.9]

TIPP:      (no poll)  
PPP:       (no poll)
Gallup:    (no poll)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2012, 04:13:08 PM
Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

The Bloomberg endorsement hurts him. I cringed when I read about it.

Michael Bloomberg is incredibly popular in the heartland. Obama might have a chance at putting Indiana and Missouri back into play now.

Don't go full Cliffy on us Lief.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cinyc on November 01, 2012, 04:17:37 PM
Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

This "surge" is a 0.07 point lead - Obama 48.56 (which rounds up to 49), Romney 48.49 (which rounds down to 48).  Romney's 1 point tick downward is because he is one-one-hundreth of a point under the 48.50 required to round up.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on November 01, 2012, 04:20:37 PM
Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

The Bloomberg endorsement hurts him. I cringed when I read about it.

Michael Bloomberg is incredibly popular in the heartland. Obama might have a chance at putting Indiana and Missouri back into play now.

Bloomberg is considered the worst representative of the nanny state.  It will play on the Left Coast NY/New England, but not anyplace else. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 01, 2012, 04:23:23 PM
Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

The Bloomberg endorsement hurts him. I cringed when I read about it.

Michael Bloomberg is incredibly popular in the heartland. Obama might have a chance at putting Indiana and Missouri back into play now.

Bloomberg is considered the worst representative of the nanny state.  It will play on the Left Coast NY/New England, but not anyplace else. 

J.J. I think I have a much better understanding of what people in Middle America are thinking about this Bloomberg endorsement, and let me tell you, they are fired up about it. I'm hearing very, very positive things.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2012, 04:24:51 PM
Oh boy, someone slipped Lief something funky today.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: old timey villain on November 01, 2012, 04:28:07 PM
Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

The Bloomberg endorsement hurts him. I cringed when I read about it.

Michael Bloomberg is incredibly popular in the heartland. Obama might have a chance at putting Indiana and Missouri back into play now.

Bloomberg is considered the worst representative of the nanny state.  It will play on the Left Coast NY/New England, but not anyplace else. 

J.J. I think I have a much better understanding of what people in Middle America are thinking about this Bloomberg endorsement, and let me tell you, they are fired up about it. I'm hearing very, very positive things.

Couldn't agree more. If there's one thing a walmart employee from Kansas City absolutely LOVES, it's a New York Jew billionaire hiding the Big Gulp cups.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 01, 2012, 05:32:27 PM
Oh boy, someone slipped Lief something funky today.

What was in last night's candy?

Warning to parents:  Inspect the candy your child receives at Halloween or else cases like this will be the result.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on November 01, 2012, 05:54:19 PM
Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

The Bloomberg endorsement hurts him. I cringed when I read about it.

Michael Bloomberg is incredibly popular in the heartland. Obama might have a chance at putting Indiana and Missouri back into play now.

Bloomberg is considered the worst representative of the nanny state.  It will play on the Left Coast NY/New England, but not anyplace else. 

J.J. I think I have a much better understanding of what people in Middle America are thinking about this Bloomberg endorsement, and let me tell you, they are fired up about it. I'm hearing very, very positive things.

Lief, I've lived in Middle America.  Rudy Giuliani had trouble there.  Keep smoking though; it will help you get through the next week.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 01, 2012, 06:27:06 PM
What you are missing is that Bloomberg will help in South Florida, and likely with the suburban moderates in NOVA and Denver as well.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on November 01, 2012, 06:28:51 PM
What you are missing is that Bloomberg will help in South Florida, and likely with the suburban moderates in NOVA and Denver as well.
He should also help with Independents and Moderates in New Hampshire too.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on November 01, 2012, 06:29:22 PM
Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.

The Bloomberg endorsement hurts him. I cringed when I read about it.

Michael Bloomberg is incredibly popular in the heartland. Obama might have a chance at putting Indiana and Missouri back into play now.

Bloomberg is considered the worst representative of the nanny state.  It will play on the Left Coast NY/New England, but not anyplace else. 

J.J. I think I have a much better understanding of what people in Middle America are thinking about this Bloomberg endorsement, and let me tell you, they are fired up about it. I'm hearing very, very positive things.

Lief, I've lived in Middle America.  Rudy Giuliani had trouble there.  Keep smoking though; it will help you get through the next week.
I think J.J.'s irony meter might need to be recalibrated.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on November 01, 2012, 07:19:38 PM
What you are missing is that Bloomberg will help in South Florida, and likely with the suburban moderates in NOVA and Denver as well.

If he had made it about Israel, possibly, it would help in FL.  It was about global warming. 

Moderates in NOVA and Denver, only big environmentalists, and Obama has their vote already.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 01, 2012, 07:50:58 PM
What you are missing is that Bloomberg will help in South Florida, and likely with the suburban moderates in NOVA and Denver as well.

If he had made it about Israel, possibly, it would help in FL.  It was about global warming. 

Moderates in NOVA and Denver, only big environmentalists, and Obama has their vote already.

Educated suburban moderates almost universally accept climate change.  I'm surprised Obama hasn't campaigned on it at all in VA and CO.  It is an opportunity to make Romney look anti-science to people who might otherwise be R on fiscal issues.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on November 01, 2012, 07:56:40 PM
What you are missing is that Bloomberg will help in South Florida, and likely with the suburban moderates in NOVA and Denver as well.

If he had made it about Israel, possibly, it would help in FL.  It was about global warming. 

Moderates in NOVA and Denver, only big environmentalists, and Obama has their vote already.

Educated suburban moderates almost universally accept climate change.  I'm surprised Obama hasn't campaigned on it at all in VA and CO.  It is an opportunity to make Romney look anti-science to people who might otherwise be R on fiscal issues.

And, if they are educated, they would realize that a nor'easter is not uncommon.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 01, 2012, 08:22:44 PM
To clarify, I mean campaigning on climate change i.e. bragging about what his EPA has done to control carbon emissions, not campaigning on the hurricane, which would be stupid and just plain wrong.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on November 01, 2012, 08:24:53 PM
To clarify, I mean campaigning on climate change i.e. bragging about what his EPA has done to control carbon emissions, not campaigning on the hurricane, which would be stupid and just plain wrong.

That could lose him OH, and possibly VA.  He'd even be in danger in PA with that. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on November 01, 2012, 08:52:10 PM
Lol,

48.56 for Obama and 48.49 for Romney

Wheeeeew..... .07 ::)


Obama is surging nationally:

WaPo
Obama 49%
Romney 48% (-1)

This is not even factoring in the big Bloomberg bump he'll be getting starting tonight.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 01, 2012, 09:07:57 PM
How much is the Romney campaign missing the Gallup poll right now?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 01, 2012, 09:56:13 PM
Obama's nationwide surge continues, with new numbers from PPP's tracker!

Obama 49 (+1)
Romney 48 (-1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on November 01, 2012, 10:00:42 PM
How much is the Romney campaign missing the Gallup poll right now?

I doubt they worry too much about all the public polls too much.  They have better ones.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ty440 on November 01, 2012, 10:00:53 PM
Obama's nationwide surge continues, with new numbers from PPP's tracker!

Obama 49 (+1)
Romney 48 (-1)


()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 01, 2012, 10:05:49 PM
To clarify, I mean campaigning on climate change i.e. bragging about what his EPA has done to control carbon emissions, not campaigning on the hurricane, which would be stupid and just plain wrong.

That could lose him OH, and possibly VA.  He'd even be in danger in PA with that. 

There aren't that many coal miners in OH and VA.  I don't know about PA, maybe there are more.  Regardless, Democrats need to plan for coal towns to vote near unanimously R from now on.  They can make up those votes in the suburbs. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on November 01, 2012, 10:41:58 PM
How much is the Romney campaign missing the Gallup poll right now?

I doubt they worry too much about all the public polls too much.  They have better ones.

Oh my God you seriously just said that.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on November 01, 2012, 11:29:05 PM
Obama's nationwide surge continues, with new numbers from PPP's tracker!

Obama 49 (+1)
Romney 48 (-1)

Ah and Romney's only down 3 with women.  If so, definitely going to be a landslide.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 01, 2012, 11:37:49 PM
Obama's nationwide surge continues, with new numbers from PPP's tracker!

Obama 49 (+1)
Romney 48 (-1)

Ah and Romney's only down 3 with women.  If so, definitely going to be a landslide.

Ah and Obama's only down 3 with men.  If so, definitely going to be a landslide. :D


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on November 01, 2012, 11:49:04 PM
point made, neither are believable. At least they're consistent.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Dumbo on November 02, 2012, 06:24:13 AM
How much is the Romney campaign missing the Gallup poll right now?

I doubt they worry too much about all the public polls too much.  They have better ones.


The best polls always are the fake polls of your own.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on November 02, 2012, 08:54:14 AM
Rasmussen have it tied at 48-48


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on November 02, 2012, 09:10:08 AM

I'm not surprised. I think that there is a little obama bump due to the storm but I think that the bump will be over monday.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on November 02, 2012, 09:23:07 AM

I'm not surprised. I think that there is a little obama bump due to the storm but I think that the bump will be over monday.

Possibly, but bear in mind that the movement in most tracker polls, national polls and the state polls began before the storm if you look at the survey dates.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on November 02, 2012, 09:32:32 AM
The case that Romney was ahead in the popular vote, while behind in the electoral vote, is looking pretty thin.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on November 02, 2012, 09:32:50 AM

I'm not surprised. I think that there is a little obama bump due to the storm but I think that the bump will be over monday.

Possibly, but bear in mind that the movement in most tracker polls, national polls and the state polls began before the storm if you look at the survey dates.

not really in the ras and ppp polls.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on November 02, 2012, 09:42:50 AM

I'm not surprised. I think that there is a little obama bump due to the storm but I think that the bump will be over monday.

Possibly, but bear in mind that the movement in most tracker polls, national polls and the state polls began before the storm if you look at the survey dates.

not really in the ras and ppp polls.

PPP has a poll less than a week old for all swing states except Colorado and Nevada (no one seems to want to poll Nevada). Rassy's Ohio poll is old, and there are no polls within the past week from him for Florida, Virginia, North Carolina or Nevada.  Everyone of it's current swing state polls when compared to other pollsters are the outlier poll in the state excepting Wenzell which dumped a -3 poll in Ohio. He has to get his last poll's out in these states soon.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 02, 2012, 10:38:30 AM
Want to bet that Scotty will show Obama inching ahead in the next couple of days so that he can tell after Tuesday that he got right the final result and preserve his reputation?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2012, 10:43:02 AM
Want to bet that Scotty will show Obama inching ahead in the next couple of days so that he can tell after Tuesday that he got right the final result and preserve his reputation?

He does it every year........


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 02, 2012, 11:00:06 AM
Romney should be surging in these national polls with NYC going off the grid.  I am actually quite surprised that there is movement toward Obama when one of his best and most populated areas of the country can't or doesn't have time to answer the phone.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Torie on November 02, 2012, 11:04:51 AM
Want to bet that Scotty will show Obama inching ahead in the next couple of days so that he can tell after Tuesday that he got right the final result and preserve his reputation?

He does it every year........

Except at least in 2008 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=163134.msg3492406#msg3492406)apparently. So a couple of red avatars tell us.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 02, 2012, 11:42:05 AM
lol, good old Scott.

Anyway, it's now clear that Obama is surging nationally, as the remaining undecided and leaners break towards the Commander-in-Chief en masse.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 02, 2012, 12:16:30 PM
Rasmussen showing the race tied? 

Bad news for Mr. Romney!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on November 02, 2012, 02:44:03 PM
Rasmussen showing the race tied? 

Bad news for Mr. Romney!
High time he conceded. -_-


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on November 02, 2012, 04:12:10 PM
Friday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +4    (R+1)      [R+2]
Zogby:        Obama +2   (O+2)       [new]
PPP:            Obama +1   (O+2*)     [O+1]
UPI:            TIED             (-)             [R+1]  
Reuters:      TIED            (R+1)        [R+1]  
Rasmussen: TIED            (O+2)       [O+3]
ABC:           Romney +1  (R+2)       [-]

Average: Obama +0.9  (O+0.2) [O+0.2]

TIPP:      (no poll)  
Gallup:    (no poll)

*last poll pre-Sandy


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 02, 2012, 04:15:27 PM

You didn't see I was mimicking a certain Atlas legend?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on November 02, 2012, 08:55:54 PM
What's a matter no one is happy about the ABC/WA PO post Today, Romney went up 1.  So did Obama's bumpy fade?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on November 02, 2012, 08:58:50 PM
What's a matter no one is happy about the ABC/WA PO post Today, Romney went up 1.  So did Obama's bumpy fade?

That's one poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2012, 10:25:22 PM
PPP

Obama-49
Romney-48

Obama now leads with Independents 50/44


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on November 02, 2012, 10:26:12 PM
PPP

Obama-49
Romney-48

Obama now leads with Independents 50/44

and yet it's move further to D+7 and he's up 1? and independents?  pretty screwy.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ty440 on November 03, 2012, 12:50:55 AM
PPP

Obama-49
Romney-48

Obama now leads with Independents 50/44

Glorious news! Obama is surging with independents!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 03, 2012, 01:17:27 AM
National polls still mean nothing to me at this point. Large parts of the northeast still have no power.

In fact, many families have decided to escape New Jersey and Long Island for at least the weekend. Quite a few of them are staying at hotels in upstate New York (among other places).


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 03, 2012, 02:19:17 AM
National polls still mean nothing to me at this point. Large parts of the northeast still have no power.

In fact, many families have decided to escape New Jersey and Long Island for at least the weekend. Quite a few of them are staying at hotels in upstate New York (among other places).

Have you heard from Tweed?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 03, 2012, 04:55:59 AM
National polls still mean nothing to me at this point. Large parts of the northeast still have no power.

In fact, many families have decided to escape New Jersey and Long Island for at least the weekend. Quite a few of them are staying at hotels in upstate New York (among other places).

Have you heard from Tweed?

I can't say I have.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on November 03, 2012, 05:09:02 AM
PPP

Obama-49
Romney-48

Obama now leads with Independents 50/44

and yet it's move further to D+7 and he's up 1? and independents?  pretty screwy.

because democrats at only 81 % (sandy technical effect ?)... Strange poll.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on November 03, 2012, 01:20:17 PM
rand poll

Obama 48 (-1)
Romney: 46 (+1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on November 03, 2012, 01:24:00 PM
Ipsos-reuters

Obama: 47 (+1)
Romney: 46 (=)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 03, 2012, 01:25:21 PM
rand poll

Obama 48 (-1)
Romney: 46 (+1)

It's 49-46.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on November 03, 2012, 01:27:07 PM

O 48,86
R 46,21

To be correct


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 03, 2012, 01:27:43 PM
Remember the national polls are missing the Northeast right now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on November 03, 2012, 02:12:10 PM
Remember the national polls are missing the Northeast right now.

not rand


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 03, 2012, 02:16:25 PM

Internet polls would be even more sensitive to a power outage than telephone polls. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on November 03, 2012, 02:49:11 PM

Internet polls would be even more sensitive to a power outage than telephone polls. 

Not necessarily.  There are a lot of portable devices. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on November 03, 2012, 03:02:22 PM

Internet polls would be even more sensitive to a power outage than telephone polls. 

Not necessarily.  There are a lot of portable devices. 

If only there were portable phones. :(


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 03, 2012, 03:11:34 PM

Internet polls would be even more sensitive to a power outage than telephone polls. 

Not necessarily.  There are a lot of portable devices. 

And where, exactly, would NYC residents charge them?  The NYC area alone was probably responsible for 1-2% of Obama's national margin in 2008.  Romney should be soaring in national polls right now with so much of that area tragically off the grid.  I thought for sure that the polls still in the field this week would go Romney +3-5 nationally.  That has not happened.  They have moved marginally to Obama, suggesting a swing to him in the rest of the country that more than offsets the lack of NYC respondents.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 03, 2012, 05:38:36 PM
Remember the national polls are missing the Northeast right now.

Not that much of now, I'd say.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on November 03, 2012, 05:46:49 PM
Adding UPI to summary

Saturday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +3    (R+1)       [R+3]
PPP:            Obama +1   (-)             [O+1]
Reuters:      Obama +1   (O+1)        [R+1]  
UPI:             Obama +1   (O+1)        [R+1]  
Rasmussen: TIED            (-)             [O+4]


Average: Obama +1.2 (O+0.2) [-]

Zogby:    (no poll)
ABC:        (no poll)
TIPP:      (no poll)  
Gallup:    (no poll)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 03, 2012, 05:49:16 PM
PPP tracker

Obama-50
Romney-47

Yeah....things are looking good for Team Blue.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 03, 2012, 05:56:08 PM
PPP tracker

Obama-50
Romney-47

Yeah....things are looking good for Team Blue.

Anything controversial in the crosstabs?  It could be NYC coming back on line after a swing in the rest of the country.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ty440 on November 03, 2012, 06:06:21 PM
PPP tracker

Obama-50
Romney-47

Yeah....things are looking good for Team Blue.

Glorious news! Obama is surging nationally!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 03, 2012, 11:18:33 PM
WAPO

Obama-48
Romney-48

And they are both tied with Independents.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2012, 02:47:56 AM
WAPO

Obama-48
Romney-48

And they are both tied with Independents.

If Obama ties Romney with independents on election day, he'll certainly win the PV.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on November 04, 2012, 09:57:17 AM
Battleground-politico:

Obama: 48 (-1)
Romney: 48

Party id: D +3 ("true independents": 14 %)

"Independents are now split evenly, with Obama up 44 to 43 percent. A week ago, Romney had a 10-point advantage among this key demographic. The ranks of independents shrunk partly because more right-leaning voters now supporting Romney identified with the Republican Party."

"Democrats continue to have an advantage on early voting, but Republicans closed the gap somewhat over the past week.

A full 27 percent of those surveyed said they’ve already cast their ballot. Of them, Obama leads 50 to 48 percent."

"A final poll is being conducted this weekend and Monday"



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on November 04, 2012, 10:11:31 AM
Ras

Obama: 49 (+1)
ROmney: 49 (+1)

"These figures include both those who have already voted and those likely to vote. Obama leads among those who have already voted, while Romney leads among those deemed likely to vote. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters are projected to be Democrats and 37% Republicans. Both candidates do well within their own party, while Romney has a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters. "

So party id: D+2


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on November 04, 2012, 10:22:10 AM
ipsos-reuters

Obama: 47 (=)
Romney: 46 % (=)

just for fun:

Ohio: O 46 R 45
FL: O 47 R 47
VA: O 48 R 45
CO: O 45 R 47


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on November 04, 2012, 11:25:09 AM
rand poll

Obama 49 (+0,4)
Romney: 46 (-0,4)

Zogby

Obama: 47 (-1)
Romney: 47 (+1)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 04, 2012, 12:51:02 PM
Reuters

Obama-48
Romney-47


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on November 04, 2012, 12:51:05 PM
There seems to be more coalescing between the polls. The difference between the best Obama and Best Romney polls was up to 11 points last Sunday. Tomorrow Gallup returns to the fold. Their last poll was Romney so maybe they will return us to more divergence. My bet is they will be closer to a tie +/-2.

Sunday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +3    (-)                  [R+4]
PPP:            Obama +3   (O+2)             [O+4]
Reuters:      Obama +1   (-)                   [R+2]  
Rasmussen: TIED            (-)                   [O+3]
Zogby:         TIED            (R+2)             [new]
ABC:            TIED            (O+1)             [O+2]

Average: Obama +1.2 (-) [O +0.5]


UPI:        (no poll)
TIPP:      (no poll)  
Gallup:    (no poll)




Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 04, 2012, 12:52:31 PM
Looks like undecideds have broken towards Obama in the last week.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Umengus on November 04, 2012, 01:01:14 PM
There seems to be more coalescing between the polls. The difference between the best Obama and Best Romney polls was up to 11 points last Sunday. Tomorrow Gallup returns to the fold. Their last poll was Romney so maybe they will return us to more divergence. My bet is they will be closer to a tie +/-2.

Sunday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +3    (-)                  [R+4]
PPP:            Obama +3   (O+2)             [O+4]
Reuters:      Obama +1   (-)                   [R+2]  
Rasmussen: TIED            (-)                   [O+3]
Zogby:         TIED            (R+3)             [new]
ABC:            TIED            (O+1)             [O+2]

Average: Obama +1.2 (-) [O +0.5]


UPI:        (no poll)
TIPP:      (no poll)  
Gallup:    (no poll)




thank

it seems to me that abc was tied yesterday and zogby is R +2 and not R+3 ;)


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 04, 2012, 05:26:42 PM
WAPO

Obama-49
Romney-48

Another, potential important edge for Obama is on enthusiasm. With just two days to go, 69 percent of his supporters call themselves “very enthusiastic,” compared with 62 percent of Romney’s. Enthusiasm for both candidates has increased sharply over the course of the campaign.

Enthusiasm gap my ass..........


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2012, 05:34:02 PM
WAPO

Obama-49
Romney-48

Another, potential important edge for Obama is on enthusiasm. With just two days to go, 69 percent of his supporters call themselves “very enthusiastic,” compared with 62 percent of Romney’s. Enthusiasm for both candidates has increased sharply over the course of the campaign.

Enthusiasm gap my ass..........

Just look at the early voters and Rasmussens "Strongly Approve."  Enthusism is increasing, but it is doing so equally. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on November 04, 2012, 05:49:00 PM
Sunday Summary [UPDATE]

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +3    (-)                  [R+4]
PPP:            Obama +3   (O+2)             [O+4]
Reuters:      Obama +1   (-)                   [R+2]
UPI:             Obama +1   (-)                   [R+2]
ABC:            Obama +1   (O+1)             [O+2]
Rasmussen: TIED            (-)                   [O+3]
Zogby:         TIED            (R+2)             [new]

Average: Obama +1.3 (O +0.1) [O +0.6]


TIPP:      (no poll)  
Gallup:    (no poll)



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 04, 2012, 06:37:14 PM
So the only national poll Romney now leads in is Zogby? LOL


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fargobison on November 04, 2012, 10:30:54 PM
PPP

Obama 50
Romney 48

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/112113114TrackingResults.pdf


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 04, 2012, 10:33:53 PM
Good stuff.

-Obama's national favorability is 50/47, Romney's is 47/48.
-Most noteworthy on the national tracking poll- Obama leads 49/41 with independents now.
-Another key for Obama nationally- down only 57/41 with white voters. Romney needs to win them by 20+.

Hurricane Sandy may have been more important then I realize.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on November 04, 2012, 10:37:17 PM

You do realize this poll shows Romney narrowing the gap right? Not sure how that is good news for ya.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 04, 2012, 10:40:19 PM

You do realize this poll shows Romney narrowing the gap right? Not sure how that is good news for ya.

Obama remains steady at 50%......that is good news.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: pepper11 on November 04, 2012, 10:44:08 PM

You do realize this poll shows Romney narrowing the gap right? Not sure how that is good news for ya.

Obama remains steady at 50%......that is good news.

OK :). Fair point, I'd rather it be flipped. Still not sure it is great news for the prez.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2012, 11:13:44 PM
Look like Obama might hit his magic number with white people.  Unbelievable.  We've come a long way since this

()


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on November 04, 2012, 11:36:09 PM
PPP

Obama 50
Romney 48

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/112113114TrackingResults.pdf

This also shows 16% crossover Dems to Romney, 12% for Republicans to Obama (he'll be lucky to get 5%), great news for Romney.  Oh yeah and turnout is going to be D+5 ::), at least they are coming down to earth a little.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2012, 12:21:45 AM
PPP

Obama 50
Romney 48

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/112113114TrackingResults.pdf

This also shows 16% crossover Dems to Romney, 12% for Republicans to Obama (he'll be lucky to get 5%), great news for Romney.  Oh yeah and turnout is going to be D+5 ::), at least they are coming down to earth a little.

So let me get this straight, 12% of Republicans voting for Obama will never happen but 16% of Democrats going for Romney makes total sense? Okay then, hack.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on November 05, 2012, 07:50:27 AM
PPP

Obama 50
Romney 48

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/112113114TrackingResults.pdf

This also shows 16% crossover Dems to Romney, 12% for Republicans to Obama (he'll be lucky to get 5%), great news for Romney.  Oh yeah and turnout is going to be D+5 ::), at least they are coming down to earth a little.

So let me get this straight, 12% of Republicans voting for Obama will never happen but 16% of Democrats going for Romney makes total sense? Okay then, hack.

Both of those numbers seem high, compared to the rest of the polls. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2012, 07:52:53 AM
PPP

Obama 50
Romney 48

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/112113114TrackingResults.pdf

This also shows 16% crossover Dems to Romney, 12% for Republicans to Obama (he'll be lucky to get 5%), great news for Romney.  Oh yeah and turnout is going to be D+5 ::), at least they are coming down to earth a little.

So let me get this straight, 12% of Republicans voting for Obama will never happen but 16% of Democrats going for Romney makes total sense? Okay then, hack.

Both of those numbers seem high, compared to the rest of the polls. 

Indeed.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on November 05, 2012, 07:56:59 AM
PPP

Obama 50
Romney 48

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/112113114TrackingResults.pdf

This also shows 16% crossover Dems to Romney, 12% for Republicans to Obama (he'll be lucky to get 5%), great news for Romney.  Oh yeah and turnout is going to be D+5 ::), at least they are coming down to earth a little.

So let me get this straight, 12% of Republicans voting for Obama will never happen but 16% of Democrats going for Romney makes total sense? Okay then, hack.

Both of those numbers seem high, compared to the rest of the polls. 

Indeed.

You could get that in some places (especially in PA), but not nationally.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on November 05, 2012, 07:58:49 AM
PPP

Obama 50
Romney 48

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/112113114TrackingResults.pdf

This also shows 16% crossover Dems to Romney, 12% for Republicans to Obama (he'll be lucky to get 5%), great news for Romney.  Oh yeah and turnout is going to be D+5 ::), at least they are coming down to earth a little.

So let me get this straight, 12% of Republicans voting for Obama will never happen but 16% of Democrats going for Romney makes total sense? Okay then, hack.

Both of those numbers seem high, compared to the rest of the polls. 

Their own party I.D model; i.e who they allocate to 'Dem' 'Rep' etc is more sensitive than most polls. For example they had Dems at 41 and Reps at 39 which is higher than most other surveys who when pulled on average have the Dems at about 34 and the Reps at 27 (going by Pollsters data). Therefore their Dem and Rep identifiers contain a large number of people who would be labelled 'Independent' in other polls. As a result PPP's sub-samples tend to show larger numbers of Dems and Reps who would vote for the other side than you find elsewhere.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on November 05, 2012, 08:38:02 AM
RCP are saying that Rassmussen has Romney +1 - 49-48


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ChrisFromNJ on November 05, 2012, 08:45:24 AM
You really have to question Scott Rasmussens motives when he is leaking poll results to Matt Drudge, right wing kingmaker. This is not the same Scott Rasmussen four years or eight years ago. He is now a bought and paid for operative for the right wing, who provides the conservative narratives that Drudge and Fox News run with. While the race is within the margin of error, Fox News now has a narrative to drive on the last day of the campaign. It's really a shame how money and influence could corrupt such an outstanding pollster.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Franzl on November 05, 2012, 08:46:16 AM
Romney seems to be re-gaining a tad in national polling.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on November 05, 2012, 08:48:19 AM
RCP are saying that Rassmussen has Romney +1 - 49-48

It is not up on his website.

You really have to question Scott Rasmussens motives when he is leaking poll results to Matt Drudge, right wing kingmaker. This is not the same Scott Rasmussen four years or eight years ago. He is now a bought and paid for operative for the right wing, who provides the conservative narratives that Drudge and Fox News run with. While the race is within the margin of error, Fox News now has a narrative to drive on the last day of the campaign. It's really a shame how money and influence could corrupt such an outstanding pollster.

You could say the same about PPP.  I wouldn't say that in either case.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2012, 08:51:56 AM
Drudge's headline is hilarious right now.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on November 05, 2012, 08:53:49 AM
Romney seems to be re-gaining a tad in national polling.

On what basis? He's up 1 in Rasmussen. The last national poll released that had Romney ahead was Rasmussens poll of Romney up 2.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ChrisFromNJ on November 05, 2012, 08:56:28 AM
RCP are saying that Rassmussen has Romney +1 - 49-48

It is not up on his website.

You really have to question Scott Rasmussens motives when he is leaking poll results to Matt Drudge, right wing kingmaker. This is not the same Scott Rasmussen four years or eight years ago. He is now a bought and paid for operative for the right wing, who provides the conservative narratives that Drudge and Fox News run with. While the race is within the margin of error, Fox News now has a narrative to drive on the last day of the campaign. It's really a shame how money and influence could corrupt such an outstanding pollster.

You could say the same about PPP.  I wouldn't say that in either case.

No, you couldn't say the same about PPP. PPP doesn't leak their results to say, MSNBC, in order to drive a narrative to fluff up their candidate. MSNBC also doesn't give a paycheck to any member of PPP.

You do realize what a conflict of interest it is that Scott Rasmussen, an "independent pollster", receives a paycheck from the kingmaker of the GOP, Fox news?

The false equivalency doesn't work here. While PPP's staff may be Democrats, there is zero evidence to suggest that they are influenced in any way by any left wing media outlets.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Franzl on November 05, 2012, 09:02:42 AM
Romney seems to be re-gaining a tad in national polling.

On what basis? He's up 1 in Rasmussen. The last national poll released that had Romney ahead was Rasmussens poll of Romney up 2.

PPP also went from +3 to +2, didn't they?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ljube on November 05, 2012, 09:13:55 AM
I think that we are witnessing Mittmentum and that it will continue through Election Day.
Probably caused by the coveted undecideds breaking for Mitt 75/25, as they broke for Kerry in 2004.

Now, I don't know the exact distribution of the undecideds in Bush-Kerry election. It's just my gut feeling. But they broke for Kerry massively. Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray:

Quote
At this point in 2004, Bush Cheney internal polling had Bush at 274 electoral votes. Most of the "toss up" EVs broke for the challenger.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on November 05, 2012, 09:55:51 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney:  49%, u

Obama:  48, -1


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: GMantis on November 05, 2012, 11:38:30 AM
Rasmussen:

Romney:  49%, u

Obama:  48, -1
Mittmentum?


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 05, 2012, 11:42:11 AM
I think that we are witnessing Mittmentum and that it will continue through Election Day.
Probably caused by the coveted undecideds breaking for Mitt 75/25, as they broke for Kerry in 2004.

Now, I don't know the exact distribution of the undecideds in Bush-Kerry election. It's just my gut feeling. But they broke for Kerry massively. Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray:

Quote
At this point in 2004, Bush Cheney internal polling had Bush at 274 electoral votes. Most of the "toss up" EVs broke for the challenger.

He is blowing so much smoke on 2004 I don't even know what to say. The following states were within 3% in the RCP election day averages that year:

IA: Bush +0.3- HELD
FL: Bush +0.6- HELD (would have singlehandedly elected Kerry if it flipped)
WI: Bush+0.9- FLIPPED
HI: Bush +0.9- FLIPPED (huge issues with polling here every year)
PA: Kerry +0.9-HELD
NH: Kerry +1.0- HELD
NM: Bush +1.4- HELD
OH: Bush +2.1- HELD

Yep, Bush totally had 270 in the bag on election day 2004.

    



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: jeron on November 05, 2012, 11:56:35 AM
I think that we are witnessing Mittmentum and that it will continue through Election Day.
Probably caused by the coveted undecideds breaking for Mitt 75/25, as they broke for Kerry in 2004.

Now, I don't know the exact distribution of the undecideds in Bush-Kerry election. It's just my gut feeling. But they broke for Kerry massively. Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray:

Quote


Not quite. According to the exit polls, people who decided  on the last day broke for Kerry 52/45.



Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on November 05, 2012, 12:59:31 PM
HI: Bush +0.9- FLIPPED (huge issues with polling here every year)
There were just two polls IIRC, or at least only two late ones.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on November 05, 2012, 01:58:33 PM

Just reporting, not commenting. 


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 05, 2012, 02:03:04 PM
I think that we are witnessing Mittmentum and that it will continue through Election Day.
Probably caused by the coveted undecideds breaking for Mitt 75/25, as they broke for Kerry in 2004.

Now, I don't know the exact distribution of the undecideds in Bush-Kerry election. It's just my gut feeling. But they broke for Kerry massively. Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray:

Quote
At this point in 2004, Bush Cheney internal polling had Bush at 274 electoral votes. Most of the "toss up" EVs broke for the challenger.

Didn't I completely discredit you on this in the IA thread?  I noticed you never bothered to even try to argue with me.  Maybe you ought to go back an refresh your memory.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on November 05, 2012, 02:08:05 PM
Rasmussen's party affiliation for October R+5.8 :D Wow!

Believe he was very close the last two elections, if this is even 0, Obama's toast.  D+3 or less and Romney likely wins ;)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 05, 2012, 02:11:43 PM
If Romney can only mange a +1 in an R+5 then he is going to get blown out.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on November 05, 2012, 02:21:23 PM
If Romney can only mange a +1 in an R+5 then he is going to get blown out.


Ummm no, because as we've been hearing over and over from the much touted liberal pollsters the turnout is going to be along the lines of 2008 (d+7) or better.  With those numbers Obama can't even get to 50% or much above 47% and it's tied in a lot of the polls.  So we're talking a  13 point difference.  If Romney gets D+1 he most certainly wins.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Cliffy on November 05, 2012, 02:22:51 PM
Year Rasmussen Actual
2004 D +1.5 (Dem 38.7, Rep 37.2) D +0 (Dem 38, Rep 38)
2008 D +7.1 (Dem 40.3, Rep 33.3) D +7 (Dem 40, Rep 33)
2012 R +5.8 (Dem 33.3, Rep 39.1) ?????


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2012, 03:41:27 PM
Wait, so Romney is really only +1 with R+6 turnout?

Trying to hold in my evil laughter...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 05, 2012, 03:42:16 PM
Reuters/Ipsos (final?) poll says Obama leads 48-46.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: afleitch on November 05, 2012, 04:01:30 PM
Reuters/Ipsos (final?) poll says Obama leads 48-46.

He was up 1 in their previous poll so that is good.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on November 05, 2012, 04:06:42 PM
Wait, so Romney is really only +1 with R+6 turnout?

Trying to hold in my evil laughter...
You've forgotten to unskew Rasmussen with Rasmussen's own party id numbers.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 05, 2012, 04:07:17 PM
RAND's final poll, I assume:

Obama 49.88%
Romney 45.49%

Slight gain from yesterday.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: GMantis on November 05, 2012, 04:13:18 PM
If Romney can only mange a +1 in an R+5 then he is going to get blown out.


Ummm no, because as we've been hearing over and over from the much touted liberal pollsters the turnout is going to be along the lines of 2008 (d+7) or better.  With those numbers Obama can't even get to 50% or much above 47% and it's tied in a lot of the polls.  So we're talking a  13 point difference.  If Romney gets D+1 he most certainly wins.
So you're taking a favorable piece of information from one poll (Romney leading by 1 according to Rasmussen) and then mix with another favorable piece from another poll (Obama with only a narrow lead in a D+7 poll) so that you can prove that Obama is finished? And you're surprised that you're not taken seriously...


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 05, 2012, 04:17:38 PM
ABC/WAPO final tracker

Obama-50
Romney-47

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1143a15TrackingNo15.pdf


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on November 05, 2012, 04:22:45 PM
Election Eve Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +4    (O+1)             [R+2]
ABC:            Obama +3   (O+2)             [O+3]
PPP:            Obama +2   (R+1)             [O+3]
Reuters:      Obama +2   (O+1)             [R+1]
UPI**:         Obama +1   (-)                  [-]
Rasmussen: Romney +1 (R+1)              [O+1]
Gallup:         Romney +1 (O+4*)           [O+4]
Zogby:         Romney +2 (R+2)             [new]

Average: Obama +1.0 (R +0.3) [O +1.1]


TIPP:      (no poll - final poll to be posted at 11pm PST)  


*last poll pre-Sandy
**final poll released Saturday


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2012, 04:23:07 PM
ABC/WAPO final tracker

Obama-50
Romney-47

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1143a15TrackingNo15.pdf

BOOM


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 05, 2012, 04:27:05 PM
Obama is peaking at the right moment as undecideds decidedly break towards him. Fantastic news.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 05, 2012, 04:29:42 PM
Romney's lead with whites in the ABC/WaPo poll is just 56-41. And with a white percentage of the vote of 74%, unchanged from 2008 (which is unlikely IMO). Tomorrow will be a good night.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 05, 2012, 04:38:02 PM
Obama supporters are more enthusiastic according to the ABC poll.

Turnout is critical, with Obama’s slight edge relying on robust participation by Democrats and minorities and a competitive showing among independents. But there’s some evidence for it: his supporters are more strongly enthusiastic than Romney’s by an 8-point margin in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. That’s numerically the widest enthusiasm gap since early September.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 05, 2012, 05:03:41 PM
It's often what happens in 'incumbent' elections, but not always, each side perceives the election differently. For example every challenger sees the election as a change election, so their supporters are more ethusiastic and have a purpose. The incumbents supporters aren't normally as driven, so take longer to engage.

I've argued that over-weighting the enthusiasm is a mistake, largely because (and this is only anecdotal) if the incumbent has positive approvals and the public like him, the likelihood of his base and associated voters abandoning him is low... not impossible, but low. Incumbents usually, with the exception of 1976 (but I generally treat that election a little separately), get thrown out of office in a wave. I, speaking with as much objectivity as I can muster, don't see ANY evidence of a wave.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 05, 2012, 05:06:15 PM
Quote
@postpolls
Hitting 50% among likely voters is a 1st for Obama since July - 11/4 interviews were Obama’s best day of polling yet.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 05, 2012, 05:21:43 PM
GUYS GUYS, look at Drudge right now. Hahahahahaha!


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TrapperHawk on November 05, 2012, 05:24:24 PM
GUYS GUYS, look at Drudge right now. Hahahahahaha!

Ha! I took a look. It's actually sad. That's some fine, high-octane straw clutching right now by Drudge.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 05, 2012, 06:16:30 PM
Damn, look at that Obama surge on the graph: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Beautiful stuff.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 05, 2012, 09:04:27 PM
UPI

Obama-49
Romney-48


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2012, 10:03:31 PM
Quote
‏@fivethirtyeight
Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That's a pretty big deal.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 05, 2012, 10:38:56 PM
Quote
‏@fivethirtyeight
Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That's a pretty big deal.

Yup, undecideds are breaking to the President, as I've been saying for about a week now.  He'll likely win a majority of the popular vote tomorrow.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 06, 2012, 02:46:55 AM
IBD/TIPP is out with their final poll, after a Sandy hiatus:

Obama: 50.3%
Romney: 48.7%


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 06, 2012, 10:18:00 AM
And Rasmussen (seemingly) releases the last poll of the cycle, updating his tracking poll today, which is unchanged at Romney +1.


Title: Re: National Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 07, 2012, 08:28:20 PM
And Rasmussen (seemingly) releases the last poll of the cycle, updating his tracking poll today, which is unchanged at Romney +1.
Didn't go so good there, eh Rassy?