Talk Elections

who will win the 2016 Democratic nomination?

Bob Casey, Jr. would never, ever, ever run for President.

I see no way Alexi Giannoulias can be stopped.

Hell if I know.

How many people were talking about Herman Cain in 2007?

Other: Michael Bennet

Hillary; assuming she runs. If she and Biden stay out, Manchin, Bayh, Schweitzer, Booker, Newsom, Cuomo, and Kaine will run.

Warner wins Iowa, Cuomo wins NH, Warner wins SC - warner wins the nomination with cuomo as VP.

No Kirsten Gillibrand? I would like either her or Schweitzer.

A centrist like Bayh might be able to pull it off...

Still, I think Bayh is a serious contender to replace Biden on the VP spot should things get worse.

Cuomo wants it, and regardless of whether or not Obama is re-elected or not, I believe he will run.


Other than the fact that he doesn't currently hold elective office and was merely a Treasurer? ;)

I'm sorry, but how the hell do you manage to list that many Democrats and not list Elizabeth Warren? When she beats Brown she's easily among the top three looking at 2016 from this far out.

I'll add to that anyone who thinks it's going to be Mark Warner either hasn't heard Mark Warner speak or knows sh**t.

His voice sounds like absolute crap and he has no charisma.


I don't know why everyone here thinks the Democrats are destined to nominate someone to the right of Obama I mean the demographics are only getting more progressive friendly add to that the fact that when parties are out of power for a short period of time they tend to nominate ideologues and move more to the center with ever consecutive loss.

On the other hand if Obama wins .... well the VP's normally run so their really isn't enough data to trend out that, but again the demo's are moving leftward other than Hillary because of her name or Cuomo because he's a popular Governor of a huge state that did something very socially progressive I don't see how any other candidates to the right of Obama have a chance.

Hillary
Warren (Assuming win)
Feingold
Cuomo

Is how I'd rank them right now and I think Cuomo would be easy to take out with his shady associations (Koch Brothers) and his perceived corporate friendliness with the Democratic base becoming more and more hostile to corporations by the minute.

I think Bayh missed his chance, but he should at least try in 2016 and get his voice out there.  But he's not exciting at all and will be a boring bye bye. 

I would like to see Obama shake things up on the ticket, if anything I think a female deserves to be VP, a competent female from the Senate.  Its time, and its clear that Obama is going to lose a lot of white males, so his only shot is keeping as many Female voters as possible.

Warner may be a classic VP selection, as an uncharasmatic straight man like Al Gore, but he def wants to be president some day and will run. 

Besides Mike Naso Sr. and jmf, who is talking about him now?

Hopefully Casey.

If Hillary declines to run, then in my eyes the race is wide open.
Here are my top ten candidates for the Democratic nomination in 2016; (in no real order.)

Hillary Clinton,
Brian Schweitzer,
Martin O'Malley,
Kathleen Sebelius,
Russ Feingold,
Kirsten Gillibrand,
Deval Patrick,
John Hickenlooper,
Gary Locke,
Mike Beebe

I think any of these folks could give us a real good primary season. Any thoughts?

I hope to God it isn't that right-winger Cuomo.

My money's on Cuomo. He's got massive appeal with independents.

If we nominate Cuomo in 2016, then we deserve to lose (and we probably will anyway, due to Obama fatigue after eight years).  I can only hope we get a better nominee in 2020.  

If Obama is still president in 2016, I think the best bet would be nominate a Governor.
Maybe Schweitzer or O'Malley perhaps? I think Brian Schweitzer backed up with someone like Kathleen Sebelius or Amy Klobuchar could be a really interesting ticket. I think it could also be pretty interesting to have Elizabeth Warren as the vp candidate as well. A rural Governor with a strong female with some Washington experience could be a pretty strong ticket after 8 years of Obama/Biden. Any thoughts?

Schweitzer/McCaskill?

Hillary

Only if she decides to run. If she changes her mind (given her 50,000 statements that SoS is her career topper, unlikely), she wins the nomination and the presidency.

How old will Hillary be in 2016?

By election day, she'll be 69 -same age as Ronald Reagan on election day in 1980.  

I would love to see John Hickenlooper take a go at it.

they are all right wing, this is the Democratic party.

If Hickenlooper runs, he'd be great.

Hillary's already ruled out a run, so I think Schweitzer'll win and pick her as his running mate.

Sanders is a left-winger. Kucinich would probably be too in some alternate reality where he is not an elf.

Sanders (and Kucinich) are just relatively normal popular front/ social democrat types.

My gut feeling is Hillary, or if she doesn't run, Cuomo. Though I'd prefer Schweitzer, O'Malley, or Warren.

Schweitzer is my dark horse candidate but also watch out for Martin O'Malley and Deval Patrick for dark horses.

LOL I said Gavin Newsom. I don't know why I said that. It'll probably be Schweitzer or Cuomo.

Game is between Schweitzer (although I think that he'll run for Baucus' seat), O'Malley and Cuomo. Female candidates can be Klobuchar and Sebelius, although I think that there we'll be efforts to draft Baldwin and Warren if they get into Senate. Patrick can be Vice President to Schweitzer, Sebelius and Klobuchar.

Cuomo is certainly the frontrunner, but I could see someone like Brian Schweitzer pick up traction. So one of those two.

If Elizabeth Warren beats Scott Brown on election night 2012, the 2016 buzz will begin the next morning.

Cuomo and Warren will be the two the media initially focus on throughout the 2nd term (ala Romney and Huckabee) this past cycle, but I definitely see somebody like Schweitzer make some noise very early and quickly rising to the top tier.

O'Malley and Warner are sort of intriguing, but I just don't think they have the pizzazz to make it all the way.

If Feingold runs he will immediately start off with a good chunk of solid support that will be sustained throughout, but I'm not sure if it goes much beyond that-- ala Ron Paul.

JMO

Warren's a no-brainer to get the convention keynote.  I assume she'll hit it out of park and, given Obama's own path, the chatter will start then and there.

Romney and Huckabee? You're leaving out someone the media focused on for a while, no?  But perhaps Christie is a better comparison than Palin.  I doubt they'll let Hillary say "no" less definitively or fewer times than they forced Christie to.  Speaking of him, Schweitzer has a similar plainspoken appeal, albeit Western instead of Jersey.  But he may not have the vacuum that almost sucked Christie into the race.  Also Biden seems to be interested and will be able to get himself chatted about.  

Like trying win at Antietam.

But Feingold would have a much higher ceiling than Paul who is anathema to a majority of his party.

Whoever manages to be just moderate enough to appeal to the right-wing Democrats while making the left-wing ones think they matter.

Feingold would be a viable candidate if he changes his mind about recall election. He gets the solid support + progressive hero vote then(that overlaps with Warren).

Current or Former US Senators that are likely 2016 Democratic Presidential candidates.
Former-
Feingold(WI), the Bill Bradley of the 2016 Presidential Race. Popular with the grassroots but not with the establishment.
Current-
Warren(MA)- assuming she unseats Brown in 2012. will become a top tier candidate or drafted after the 2014 midterm elections. Warren needs to help Democratic Incumbent US Senators likely to face re-election campaigns in 2014, Begich-AK,Udall-CO,Harkin-IA,Landrieu-LA,Democratic Nominee for the Open MI Seat, Franken-MN,Baucus-MT,Shaheen-NH,Democratic Nominee for Open NJ seat, Hagan-NC, and Johnson-SD win in 2014 as well as the Democratic nominee against McConnell in KY, Chambliss in GA, and Cornyn in TX.
Klobuchar(MN),Gillibrand(NY) don't add anything to the ticket other than the fact they are intelligent attractive women.
Brown(OH)-Leading candidate for VP if Democrats nominate Warren-MA or Cuomo-NY.or Warner-VA
Warner(VA)-favorite among the establishment or media, charismatic former Governor/current US Senator from a key battleground state. Wealthy businessman.
Former or Current Governors
Former-
O'Malley(MD)- the Democratic version of Pawlenty. Campaign will before it begins, more likely to succeed Mikulski in the US Senate in 2016.
Patrick(MA)- more likely to run for Warren's vacant US Senate seat in 2018 assuming he does not succeed Kerry in 2014.
Schweitzer(MT), Lynch(NH) are populist Governors from small states. candidacy is unlikely to gain any traction.
Current-
Hickenlooper(CO)-similar situation as O'Malley,
Cuomo(NY)- front runner. along with Warren-assuming she gets elected to the US Senate.

I secretly want Giffords to run, but I doubt she is even going to run for her seat next year. Same with Tammy Baldwin, but she has to win her Senate seat first among other things.

Others:

McCaskill
Cuomo
Warren
Kaine
Warner
Sebelius
Feingold
Brown


I dont think Hillary will run again, and I dont know how I feel about Schweitzer yet.

Where did you get Gary Locke from?

I don't know if Cuomo could get the nomination but if he does he has zero chance of winning it (unfortantly for us that means he'll stay in NY)

Dont cut out Leon Panetta...

Wat?
WAT?
WAT?

Panetta is nearly 75 isn't he?

Andrew Cuomo

Elizabeth Warren.  Why are we even hacing this discussion?

lmao Bayh got more votes than Sanders.

I'm shocked that Sanders was on this poll.

He's forgotten even in his home state.