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Title: What % of the black Republican vote will Cain win in the primaries? Post by: Mr. Morden on October 18, 2011, 05:47:03 AM Obviously, the GOP is overwhelmingly white, yet there's still a small segment of black voters who identify as Republicans, and who will vote in the primaries. What % of them will vote for Cain?
(If you like, you can also predict how Asian Republicans, Latino Republicans, Jewish Republicans, and atheist Republicans will vote.) Title: Re: What % of the black Republican vote will Cain win in the primaries? Post by: Tender Branson on October 18, 2011, 06:28:25 AM Republican exit poll for the 2008 South Carolina primary:
() ERROR ! ERROR ! ERROR ! (We'll never know the answer to your question, because the sample size is toooooo small ...) But if you want, you can take a look at the crosstabs of the InsiderAdvantage polls from SC and FL, which breakd down even this very small sample of Black Republicans. Title: Re: What % of the black Republican vote will Cain win in the primaries? Post by: Tender Branson on October 18, 2011, 06:38:04 AM Btw, Gingrich is winning Black Republicans in the IA poll with 62%. There are 9 of them in the poll.
Cain and Gingrich are tied with NH Black Republicans. There are only 4 of them. Cain has an absolute majority with SC Black Republicans. There are 14. Cain is slightly ahead of Gingrich with FL Black Republicans, 35%-31%. There are 25 in the poll. Title: Re: What % of the black Republican vote will Cain win in the primaries? Post by: Mr. Morden on October 18, 2011, 09:11:57 AM What if you add all black Republicans from all four states together and calculate the overall %ages? Cain narrowly ahead of Gingrich?
And does Romney's lack of love from the black GOPers have something to do with Mormonism's uh....."colorful" history with race? Title: Re: What % of the black Republican vote will Cain win in the primaries? Post by: Eraserhead on October 18, 2011, 10:15:53 AM The black Republican vote? Sounds oxymoronic.
Title: Re: What % of the black Republican vote will Cain win in the primaries? Post by: Oakvale on October 18, 2011, 10:48:04 AM I think Cain is the only black Republican, so I'd assume 100%.
Title: Re: What % of the black Republican vote will Cain win in the primaries? Post by: Simfan34 on October 18, 2011, 10:55:51 AM The black Republican vote? Sounds oxymoronic. Je suis un oxymoron. I think Cain is the only black Republican, so I'd assume 100%. Ich bin Herman Cain!? Title: Re: What % of the black Republican vote will Cain win in the primaries? Post by: The_Texas_Libertarian on October 18, 2011, 02:04:01 PM What percentage of the electorate in the GOP primary/caucus do black Republicans make up? South Carolina exit poll posted above says 2%. I don't know if it would matter that much unless it is a very close result
Title: Re: What % of the black Republican vote will Cain win in the primaries? Post by: Mr. Morden on October 18, 2011, 03:19:47 PM I don't know if it would matter that much unless it is a very close result Of course it doesn't "matter". I just think it's an interesting question. Title: Re: What % of the black Republican vote will Cain win in the primaries? Post by: Gustaf on October 18, 2011, 04:05:50 PM Presumably a black Republican does not necessarily bloc vote for black people... :P
Title: Re: What % of the black Republican vote will Cain win in the primaries? Post by: Mr. Morden on October 19, 2011, 05:07:52 AM I just looked at Inisder Advantage's (not a very good pollster, but all we have in this case) IA/NH/SC/FL polls, and added up all the responses from likely GOP primary voters who are black from all four states and combined them, with my own re-weighting. From all four states combined, their polls only have 52 responses from black GOP primary voters (nearly half of them in Florida). What I came up with was this:
Cain 36% Gingrich 29% Romney 15% Paul 11% Bachmann 4% everyone else 0% undecided 5% MOE is enormous, because there are only 52 respondents here. |