Talk Elections

The latter is about what I would expect in a state in which the President has a 43% approval rating at the time.  Of course Romney will need Ohio with which to win but President Obama has other possibilities that would assure his win. But Rick Perry is showing himself thoroughly unelectable. Romney is electable.

In view of how badly Rick Perry does in Ohio -- that he would lose Ohio by 9% -- it is easy to see why I am going to drop him and start a new thread involving President Obama against Mitt Romney and Herman Cain. Perry has become a travesty, and someone who loses Ohio by by 9% would lose nationwide by about 10%. Perry is going into an electoral collapse as Romney holds his own against President Obama in Ohio. I think that Perry would lose such states as Arizona, Georgia,  Indiana, Montana, and the Dakotas, and in view of his unfortunate ties to a pastor who claims that Mormons aren't real Christians, he might lose Utah. He would win Texas only because of the Favorite Son effect.    I have just locked the Obama vs. Perry/Romney threads as I now consider Rick Perry in an irreversible collapse.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1018.pdf

Herman Cain may be to the right of everyone who has been running for President as a Republican except perhaps Michele (Political rights be damned unless you are a 'conservative' Republican) Bachmann, a borderline fascist. As a black man he can get away with saying things that right-wing white politicians dare not say because nobody will be able to say that he is a racist. I think that he is to electoral politics what Clarence Thomas is to the judiciary.  


under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Romney

()


(near-blank map to be inserted... I will be back with it)

Obama vs. Cain

()

recent PPP  polls:

WV -- nothing on Obama vs. Cain.

IA  -- He leads Herman Cain, 47-41

NE -- nothing on Cain

NC -- nothing on Cain

That goes back a month. PPP apparently didn't take Herman Cain seriously until about a week ago.  

Herman Cain may be to the right of everyone who has been running for President as a Republican except perhaps Michele (Political rights be damned unless you are a 'conservative' Republican) Bachmann, a borderline fascist. As a black man he can get away with saying things that right-wing white politicians dare not say because nobody will be able to say that he is a racist. I think that he is to electoral politics what Clarence Thomas is to the judiciary.  


under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Romney

()


Obama vs. Cain

()

Some others:

MI, SurveyUSA: Obama 53%, Herman Cain 32%.

FL, Marist/NBC News:  47% Obama  41% Cain

SC, Marist/NBC News: 43% Perry  42% Obama

NY, Siena  58-32 Obama vs. Cain

VA, Quinnipiac: Obama: 45%  Cain: 43%  

LA, Clarus/WWL-TV (CBS 4, New Orleans): nothing

NH, several: nothing

NJ, Quinnipiac: 47-38 Obama vs. Cain

MD, Gonzalez research: nothing

PA, Magellan: nothing
 


under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Hawaii and Illinois:

Hawaii Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 56%
Disapprove...................................................... 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 63%
Herman Cain................................................... 30%
Undecided....................................................... 7%

Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 59%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 32%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_HI_1020424.pdf


Illinois:

Mitt Romney  38.5%  Obama  46.1%

Herman Cain 34.0%  Obama  46.3%

http://news.siu.edu/2011/10/101911tew11040.html

In case anyone is still curious after I froze the other margin study that involved Rick Perry, Rick Perry does execrably in both states.



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10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()
[/quote]

Tennessee. This state has gone so far to the Right so fast that whatever good I used to say about the state's politics is no longer true.

The plutocratic spirit that got the state sliced and diced in the early 1860s is back in vogue:


Of course a pure plutocracy is the primary objective of the GOP.

No ambiguity here:





http://mtsusurveygroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/MTSU_Poll_Fall2011_Report.pdf



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10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1666&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

It could be a post-Qaddafi bounce.



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

Can we get maps without your Obama +6 "corrections"?

I thought these maps were without the +6.

These maps have no "+6 correction" much unlike my old approval maps.  They are head-to-head matchups and raw margins. Colors show the intensity of the split, and approval ratings in no way appear on these maps. They may be shown with matchups.

So let us suppose that Cain leads Obama 47-39 in Texas.  Three possible guesses  for the result are reasonable and fairly easy to explain.  One, the easiest, would be to split the difference among the undecided or non-responding amount 50-50. That would give

Cain 54  Obama 46

in the assumption that the undecided would split 50-50.

One would be to split the responses proportionally:

Cain 54.7 Obama 45.3

on the assumption that those who can't make up their minds are either not going to vote or are going to make a protest vote through a vote for a third-party candidate.

It could also be an average of the two, roughly

Cain 54.3  Obama 45.7

You could also have geometric means, logarithmic means, fifth-power means, or even assume that all of the undecided will go one way or the other. You could adjust it any way you want, but you would have to justify your model and its mathematics.

The coming Presidential election has its unique characteristics, most notably that we have the worst economic hardships in over seventy years for which both major Parties will get some of the blame. Who gets the most? Ask again in a year. The President has a far-higher approval rating than Congress even when he has approval ratings around 40%. We have ideologues suggesting that Big Business not hire people so that people will vote for any Republican , and we have people who have no higher objective for the next year than to ensure that President Obama is defeated. 

OK -- when it comes to any margin, anything 4% or less is a virtual tie.  We should all know that. But if most of the virtual ties lean slightly toward the President, then that still suggests that the President has an advantage in those states. On November 7, 2012 maybe all but one of the virtual ties will have transformed themselves into unambiguous victories for President Obama or for his opponent.   

Much will change within a year, and nobody can predict quite how. I just can't see President Obama losing Massachusetts or winning Alabama, or winning Georgia while losing Ohio.  I still see this upcoming Presidential election as a variant of the last three Presidential elections, and the margin map for Obama vs. Romney seems to show that so far.   

Arizona, of all places!


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/26/poll-romney-cain-on-top-in-arizona/

Post-Qaddafi  bump?


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

Nevada, PPP... could a huge number of Obama  voters of 2008 have moved away, perhaps to Arizona? Casino and hotel workers voted heavily for President Obama.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NV_1027513.pdf

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

Oh good, thanks.

He wouldn't need the "race" card.  Cain lack of knowledge on US foreign policy and the economy is enough for Obama to wipe the floor with him. On top that, why would he use the "race" card against Romney or Perry?

Do people really think Obama is that desperate?

Race card? The President recognizes it as a losing proposition.

PPP, Wisconsin

 
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_1028925.pdf

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

Washington (university poll)

If the election for President were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE
NAMES: Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Rick Perry, for whom would you
vote for?)
Obama - certain 46.4%
Obama – could change 6.1%
Undecided – lean Obama 1.5%
Undecided 5.3%
Undecided – lean Perry 2.1%
Perry – could change 7.9%
Perry – certain 30.7%
Split sample = 469 registered voters, +/- 4.5%, Oct 10-30, 2011

Total:  Obama,  54.0% Perry, 40.7%


If the election for President were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE
NAMES: Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you
vote for?)
Obama - certain 42.4%
Obama – could change 5.8%
Undecided – lean Obama 2.0%
Undecided 9.1%
Undecided – lean Romney 3.3%
Romney – could change 5.5%
Romney – certain 31.9%
Split sample = 469 registered voters, +/- 4.5%, Oct 10-30, 2011

Total: Obama 50.2%  Romney 40.7%

...no questions are asked on Obama vs. Cain, who I figure also has no chance in Washington state.

The Texas Tribune had an internet poll on Texas, and to make a long story short, President Obama was behind Romney, Perry, and Cain by unremarkable margins. Unfortunately it is an internet poll and I cannot use it because such a poll is inherently unrepresentative.   

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2012-presidential-election/cain-edges-perry-new-uttt-poll/

http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/103111.pdf

under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

North Carlina, PPP:

As last time, North Carolina is a virtual tie, but this time the edge goes slightly (1%) to Mitt Romney even if the President's approval rating is up a bit from last time:


Herman Cain appears for the first time, and he underperforms Romney. This is before any accusations of hanky-panky:


North Carolina could be easily decided by whether some right-wing third-party candidate pulls more voters away from Mitt Romney than some left-wing candidate pulls voters from President Obama, as in 2008, even if that candidate gets less than 1% of the vote.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

Franklin&Marshall, Pennsylvania.  It has a huge number of undecided, and it is registered voters. The gaps look like 2008 redux.

http://images.lancasteronline.com/local_old/490491/FranklinMarshallCollegeStatePoll11032011.pdf

Obama 40 - Perry 20
Obama 38 - Santorum 25
Obama 38 - Cain 24
Obama 35 - Romney 26

 

They're not happy with the results that the President and the politicians get in general, but the GOP alternatives to the President haven't been able to take advantage of economic distress -- yet.   The potential Favorite Son Rick Santorum will not do better in Pennsylvania; there is no advantage for a Favorite Son who is political poison. 

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

Maine, PPP. President Obama has a lower approval rating than disapproval by a small margin, but he would win the state by a high-single digit number against Romney and blow out everyone else.


The two Maine Congressional districts are much more similar to each other than are the three Congressional districts of Nebraska. That distinction brings neither district in play. One might go by 'only' 8% or 9% against Mitt, though.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ME_1104.pdf


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

First the good news for Republicans seeking to win Ohio:


So they ought to be in good position in which to take the state. All that they need is a candidate who can pick off the 'moderate' and 'independent' vote and win the state perhaps 52-48. Right?


Not with this crew.  The low approval must be over the economy.

SurveyUSA, Minnesota:


Minnesota may be drifting R from the Humphrey/Mondale era and may no longer be the strongest (1984) or second-strongest (1972) state for Democrats in a GOP blowout. Obama looks weaker here than he was in 2008, but not enough to put the state in play.



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

Quinnipiac has polls for Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.



In all three states, the economy is the 'biggest issue'. Mitt Romney so far has an edge on that while the economy is in poor shape; maybe voters think that he has some secret miracle. Herman Cain has yet to convince people that he has a viable solution.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1671


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()



Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

PPP, Mississippi:


The last Democratic Presidential nominee to win Mississippi was Jimmy Carter in 1976. That streak is going to hold for a long time.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MS_1110834.pdf


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

I think you goofed your maps there.

I most certainly did. Thank you.

Correction made.

Friday, November 11, 2011





http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/missouri/missouri_2012_romney_45_obama_42

The Republican nominee will have to pick up Missouri by about 5% to have a real chance of winning in the general election. This is before the campaign begins in earnest, this is with an R-leaning pollster, and this is a state that the President hasn't visited often recently. He will because it has a vulnerable Democratic Senator.

This looks like a legitimate tossup again, and the Senator probably means more to the President than do the ten electoral votes.

I think that the allegations against Herman Cain are beginning to hurt his standing in the Missouri poll, and the margin of the Obama-Cain divide may be exaggerated, especially if those allegations prove unfounded. 

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

I can now add Missouri to that list.

You should start an Obama vs. Gingrich.

I just might add him. That political cat has probably used seven of his nine political lives... but if one is a mouse, the cat that has expended seven or eight of its lives is still a mortal peril. I can see Gingrich becoming the main challenger to Mitt Romney in the event that the allegations against Herman Cain prove true... or if he responds to those accusations ineptly. Any President is going to face some calumnies, and if he falls to pieces due to a libel, he's probably going to fall to pieces for something else far more damaging to people other than the President.

Perry has lost it; Huntsman had no chance; Bachmann is so clearly on the lunatic fringe that she would lose in a Goldwater-style landslide. That leaves Gingrich.

Perry has lost it; Huntsman had no chance; Bachmann is so clearly on the lunatic fringe that she would lose in a Goldwater-style landslide. That leaves Gingrich in the event of a collapse of any kind by Herman Cain because he is in the best position in which to pick up the pieces from the failures of others.





under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()


A blank map for a start of Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

Working in existing polls involving Obama vs. Gingrich -- the easiest ones to incorporate:





under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()


A blank map for a start of Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

Now, some that I get with some more difficulty:

Wisconsin, PPP  Obama 52-Gingrich 34
Maine, PPP Obama 55 - Gingrich 35
Nevada, PPP Obama 49-Gingrich 46
North Carolina, PPP Obama 50-Gingrich 43
Hawaii, Illinois, PPP -- huge Obama blowouts
South Carolina, PPP -- Gingrich 45. Obama 44
Texas, PPP --  Gingrich 45, Obama 44
West Virginia,  PPP  -- Gingrich up by 15




under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

Now, some that I get with some more difficulty:

Wisconsin, PPP  Obama 52-Gingrich 34
Maine, PPP Obama 55 - Gingrich 35
Nevada, PPP Obama 49-Gingrich 46
North Carolina, PPP Obama 50-Gingrich 43
Hawaii, Illinois, PPP -- huge Obama blowouts
South Carolina, PPP -- Gingrich 45. Obama 44
Texas, PPP --  Gingrich 45, Obama 44
Iowa, PPP -- Obama 50, Gingrich 39




under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

Excellent, I like the compilations of the latest polling data that you throw together. If its not difficult, would you care to throw in the current EV count for each map including outstanding states?

I had EV counts in a different thread, and they got messy. I was making all sorts of errors. It just wasn't worth the effort.


 Maybe the idea is to see what states flip and what states don't with certain nominees. It's abundantly clear that Mitt Romney picks up New Hampshire, might flip Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, or Virginia (within the margin of error) -- but still loses Ohio and President Obama apparently picks up Arizona (within the margin of error). Sure, he seems to bring such states as Connecticut, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin within reach if everything goes right for him or if everything goes wrong for President Obama. He has not sealed the deal on the Obama wins of 2008 in Florida, North Carolina, or Virginia -- or even the close-call in Missouri.

So far an Obama-Romney contest looks like a close analogue to 2008.

If you can accept an August poll for Colorado from PPP -- and I am tempted to add it because Colorado is critical --  Romney loses it about as badly as McCain did, and that is outside the margin of error. Ohio clinches victory for President Obama a year from now, but so do Arizona, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Virginia. This is close to the scenario that existed in the early autumn of 2008 between Senators Obama and McCain; one state of several (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) had to go right for President Obama and everyone of them had to go right for McCain. When they were all 50-50 propositions for Barack Obama, that left practically one chance in 128 for John McCain, which implies a sucker bet.

Against Mitt Romney you can take the scenario of roughly September 2008, drop Colorado (because it looks out of reach for any Republican nominee as things are now, but because Romney would likely win New Hampshire it no longer decides anything) and replace Indiana with Arizona, and if I were putting odds on an Obama-vs-Romney election, I would estimate 60-1 based on random chance alone. At this stage, random chance based on what exists is all that one has. Should either Arizona or Ohio leave the margin of error, then odds go prohibitive.

With Herman Cain it isn't even that good. He has stood up well to the allegations of sexual harassment well, but the polls still showed him in a situation when absolutely everything has to go right for him even if he wins the Republican nomination. The most recent polls show him losing Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. He needs a new message. I see him on the brink of losing in a landslide because he has yet to seal the deal in South Carolina, a state that no Democratic nominee for President has won since Jimmy Carter did so in 1976.  Much must go right for him or bad for President Obama for things to get as good as they are for Romney. He has no chance in New Hampshire, so much unlike the case for Romney, Colorado clinches the election for the President.   An Obama-Cain matchup looks at best for Cain like a replay of 2008 and at worst a landslide for Obama that looks much like Eisenhower in the 1950s should Cain lose Texas.   

With Gingrich I have far fewer states but I see something even more ominous for him than for Cain -- he can't even seal the deal on Texas. Texas and some combination of states with 15 electoral votes is the difference between Clinton 1996 and Eisenhower 1952.

 

Kentucky? In early September there was nothing for Cain, but Romney led 48-40  but Obama led Gingrich 47-44.

I am going to add the Colorado poll from PPP in August 

Obama 48 - Romney 40
Obama 51 - Cain 35

because  (1) Colorado is important, and (2) the political scene has changed little since August, anyway.




under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

Kentucky? In early September there was nothing for Cain, but Romney led 48-40  but Obama led Gingrich 47-44.

I am going to add the Colorado poll from PPP in August  

Obama 48 - Romney 40
Obama 51 - Cain 35

because  (1) Colorado is important, and (2) the political scene has changed little since August, anyway.

SurveyUSA is the only entity to ever poll Kansas, and it shows blowouts for both Romney and Gingrich and nothing for Cain.  




under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

Nebraska is messy because of its Congressional districts. I have it for Romney but nothing for Cain. Gingrich wins the state 48-40 against President Obama, but loses the new First Congressional District by 48-40 and wins the new Second district by 48-45. He wins the third by nearly 30%.



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

There's no political gold in California for any potential GOP nominee for President; Cain isn't shown, but both Romney and Gingrich are down by double digits.  (SUSA)



under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

There's no political gold in California for any potential GOP nominee for President; Cain isn't shown, but both Romney and Gingrich are down by double digits.  (SUSA)

... or New York (Siena), where all potential GOP nominees are clobbered.


59-34 Obama/Romney
63-27 Obama/Cain
63-28 Obama/Gingrich
64-27 Obama/Bachmann
60-31 Obama/Paul
63-28 Obama/Perry

The gap between Obama and Romney is close to the 2008 gap between Obama and McCain in the election. 



under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

Quinnipiac shows a wipe-out awaiting any Republican nominee in New Jersey against the President.



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1673

And in real surfing country (California)  the LA Times uses a Democratic and a Republican pollster to show a real wipe-out:

Obama 52 - Romney 35
Obama 54 - Cain 31
Obama 55 - Perry 31

Gingrich is not shown in that polling composite.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-poll-presidential.eps-20111116,0,3085961.graphic

Selzer shows Romney up by 10% in New Hampshire.

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8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

PPP. California:

Obama/Gingrich: 60-34
Obama/Romney: 57-36
Obama/Bachmann: 60-31
Obama/Perry: 60-31
Obama/Cain: 61-32
Obama/Paul: 57-32

or as margins:

Obama/Gingrich: 26       
Obama/Romney: 21
Obama/Bachmann: 29
Obama/Perry: 29
Obama/Cain: 29
Obama/Paul: 25

and against Obama/McCain in 2008 (61-37, rounding)


Obama/Gingrich:    +2     
Obama/Romney:   -3
Obama/Bachmann: +5
Obama/Perry: +5
Obama/Cain: +5
Obama/Paul: +1


Barack Obama won the state roughly 61-37. At this stage the President has a margin of 24% or higher against every potential GOP nominee except against Mitt Romney. If the 2012 election shapes much like 2012 with California margins indicating what goes elsewhere nationwide as an across-the-board shift, then split the margin change in half, subtracting half the margin  (1.5%) against 2008 from Obama's 2008 national vote and add half that margin (same amount) to the nationwide vote for McCain in 2008 to get a predicted percentage for Romney.

Thus

Obama 2008 52.9% -- McCain 2008  45.6%  yields

Obama 2012 50.4% -- Romney 2012  47.1%

which suggests that (without statewide alterations for personal effects on one state as opposed to another) that the Republicans would flip NE-02, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, and perhaps one of Virginia and Ohio -- but not both. The President still wins about 285-290  electoral votes.

Now try the other side. With a 1% change of margin to the favor of the President against Ron Paul one gets

Obama 2008 52.9% -- McCain 2008  45.6% becoming

Obama 2008 53.4% -- Paul     2008  45.1%

The President might effectively trade Indiana for Arizona and pick up Missouri, but I have no cause to believe that any Republican other than Romney has a real chance to pick up Indiana.
That said, I would expect the President to win roughly 360 or 370 electoral votes. (At that, I think that the Republican Party in California is heavily libertarian as opposed to theocratic or corporatist in contrast to the rest of America, so Paul would probably do worse nationwide. But rules are rules in a model.

Now try an unmitigated disaster -- someone who could conceivably lose California 64-34: 

Obama 2008 52.9% -- McCain 2008  45.6%  yields

Obama 2012 55.4% -- -------* 2012  43.1%

*name withheld to prevent angry responses

At this point the raw percentages look like Eisenhower vs. Stevenson in 1952, the last election to have such raw percentages. Figuring that the states remain as polarized as ever, then the Republican nominee has no chance of picking up anything from President Obama while losing Arizona, Missouri, Georgia, Montana, and maybe two Congressional districts in Nebraska. The news media call the Presidential election before the results come in on the West Coast.

If you figure that the President has maxed out in a bunch of states, then the votes pop up more heavily in some other states -- the Dakotas? Kentucky? South Carolina? Texas could be interesting.     





           

Florida, Rasmussen:

42-46 Obama/Romney
45-43 Obama/Gingrich
46-37 Obama/Cain

Herman Cain seems to be disappearing from relevance.


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5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Any Republican nominee absolutely must win all of the following states:

Arizona
Florida
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

to have a chance to win the election.

Very insightful thread as usual pbrower,  are you like a political science major or something ?

Economics in 1978. BA.

What I know about history, probability, and statistics -- much of it not learned in any college course -- is more useful here. I can make simple mathematical models using only some of the crudest operations of mathematics with available data. As things look now, if nothing big  changes before November 6 except that the Republicans have a nominee, and at this stage I lack the arrogance with which to predict who will be the nominee and how effective a campaigner President Obama will be this time... I can predict that the President will win with popular and electoral votes adequate for winning -- if barely, but decisively -- against Mitt Romney. It would be a mirror image of 2000 or 2004. Romney would flip North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, and Virginia, take New Hampshire because he seems to be spending a lot of time there and probably will until election day (ha! ha!)... and make Nevada a nail-biter but still lose Colorado and Ohio. Because the Republican nominee will not be from Arizona, Arizona goes into play. Missouri, Georgia, and Montana do not go into play.

If President Obama and Mitt Romney do average or equal jobs as campaigners and as administrators of their campaigns, then President Obama has many ways in which to win and few in which to lose. Romney must win both Arizona and Ohio, but he has ways of losing Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. If I guess that that Mitt Romney's  chances of winning any one of those states is one in two and every one of them (that is, AZ, FL, NC, OH, and VA) is the difference between winning and losing, then with 32 possible scenarios   based on random chance, then President Obama has 31 ways in which to win and Mitt Romney has one in which to win. That gives the President roughly 97% chance of winning and Mitt Romney only a 3% chance of winning.

To that I can say... at this stage Mitt Romney would have a far better chance of taking high-risk chances that shift the odds altogether. Is he able to do that? Ask me only if he is nominated, and only then on November 7.  John McCain was in much that position in September 2008, he took some great chances to change the great realities of the election, and such did not work.

OK -- sports teams often overcome odds such as 30-1. Just think of this year's Baseball champion St. Louis Cardinals.

With Cain and Gingrich, things get more ominous. Both project to lose Ohio by even bigger margins than the inside-the-margin-of-error level by which President Obama leads Mitt Romney. There is plenty of time in which to cut down the appeal of the President or his image of competence to erode...  but that also applies to Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, wherein both Cain and Gingrich are behind. Because neither is in a good position in which to win New Hampshire, Nevada becomes critical as it isn't with Romney.   Heck, they are also both behind in Missouri. If the chance of winning any one of those states for Cain or Gingrich is even half, then each has seven states that they absolutely must win. (OK, Gingrich can't be doing better than Romney in Arizona, and if he can't make a sure thing of Kentucky, then he loses Virginia anyway). The chance of a Cain or Gingrich win becomes one in 128... and even that is charitable. Against either President Obama has as his median chance roughly a win in popular and electoral votes slightly bigger than that of 2008 and an outside possibility of a landslide similar to that of Eisenhower in 1952.

...................

In one respect the pattern of states and their votes resembles the norms of 2000, 2004, and 2008: President Obama is making insignificant headway in the states that he lost in 2008 (except perhaps Arizona) but has lost nothing in some of the states that he won by gigantic margins.  This reflects the political cultures of the states. If you have yet to read Albion's Seed (David Hackett Fisher) you will notice that political cultures in America were set early and have huge regional differences. President Obama did extremely well in areas settled from New England  and New York except for Mormon Country.   Follow Interstate 80 from San Francisco to the George Washington Bridge and find your way to the Long Island Expressway; north of that line President Obama won all but 29 electoral votes in states or districts wholly or in part north of those roads for 266 electoral votes. Add either Hawaii for a total of 270 (as its American settlers came from New England and established what sorts of American institutions would be the norm), and the President wins.  Most of this is Puritan America even if the population is  Catholic (New England and New York City) or Lutheran.

He did reasonably well in the American midlands settled heavily by Quakers and German Pietists (largely Mennonites whose religious values were close to those of the Quakers) and their descendants. That is places from roughly I-80 to northern Virginia with a glaring gap in central Pennsylvania and then roughly everything between I-70 and I-80 from the Pittsburgh to Denver metro areas. Fischer makes distinctions between those two meta-regions that I lack space to describe well here and that aren't particularly relevant here, but both meta-regions are comparatively tolerant of ethnic and religious differences, urban, well-educated, and highly-organized. Neither shows much love for economic hierarchy, superstition, or violence.

Except among blacks, President Obama did badly in the Deep South, an area long known for economic inequality, social hierarchy, and political conservatism. He did even worse in the mountainous areas of the Ozarks and  central (as far north as the New York-Pennsylvania state line) and southern Appalachians settled heavily by wild Scots-Irish and northern English settlers who believe in their guns, their bibles, their hard liquor, and their personal honor and that was slow to catch onto formal education and feminism. This is where religious fundamentalism is strongest and 'exotic' types -- even German-Americans, let alone blacks or Hispanics. As it went west it brought its wildness with it into Arizona and much of Texas.   If you remember the old Lil' Abner cartoon strips and the Dukes of Hazzard TV show-- those catch the spirit. Those might seem like ugly stereotypes outside the Ozarks and Appalachians, but they were popular in those areas in their time.

The heavily-Hispanic areas of New Mexico, southern California, southern Colorado, and south Texas fit their own norms. Florida has become Yankee country. 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_11221023.pdf

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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

SurveyUSA, Oregon

* Obama 48%
* Romney 40%.

* Obama 51%
* Gingrich 37%

Nothing shown for Cain.  Probably out of reach for Republicans.

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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

New Hampshire, WMUR, University of New Hampshire:


Read more: http://www.wmur.com/new-hampshire-primary-extended-coverage/29846953/detail.html#ixzz1ea7qbFKW

Nothing shown for Cain in a prospect of the general election but it showed him fading in the primaries. A recent poll of New Hampshire showed Mitt Romney up by about 10% in what might be his adopted 'home state' for electoral purposes.  Could it be that the more people get to know Mitt Romney the less they like him?

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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()



[/quote]

Huh?




(Cain is not shown, but that may not matter).

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10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

WTF, SUSA?

SUSA is the only pollster, so far as I know, that does Kansas. I find it hard to believe that any Republican short of David Duke could lose Kansas to President Obama.

The Obama vs. Gingrich result could be a transposition error, and I don't believe that Obama could ever lead Gingrich in Kentucky, for what that is worth.

Arizona, PPP:


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_1128925.pdf

Note -- should Herman Cain drop out of the race, I will be dropping the map showing him against President Obama.

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10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Not surprisingly this poll (CA, Field) changes nothing. Obama has a 10% edge upon Romney and a 20% edge upon Gingrich. Cain goes unmentioned. It's only a matter of time before I drop the map for Herman Cain; he has to formally drop out or his campaign has to disband for me to do that.

 

http://media.sacbee.com/smedia/2011/11/30/16/55/19C6wJ.So.4.pdf

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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Florida, PPP:


Herman Cain might as well drop out of contention.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_1201925.pdf



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10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

SUSA, Washington State:



Herman Cain might as well drop out of contention.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_1201925.pdf



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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Mitt Romney (R) 50%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 40%

Newt Gingrich (R) 50%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 42%

Herman Cain (R) 45%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 43%

Ron Paul (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 40%

Rick Perry (R) 46%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 43%



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8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

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1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain


http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/03/election/2012/cain-campaign/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

This explains the disappearing map. I told you what it would take for me to remove Herman Cain from this thread, and a valid condition is now met.

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

I may soon freeze this thread and start over with a new one. At this point I see Romney vs. Obama as a close race (although the President has yet to begin a partisan campaign and the economy may improve) with a slight edge to the President who would win 280 or so electoral votes. I see 2012 as much like Gore vs. Dubya except  that the President would add Colorado and Ohio and perhaps trade Pennsylvania for Florida.

Herman Cain would have had his chance had his marital relations been more like those of the President. You can be sure that the President would have never gotten away with even one sordid affair, especially with a white woman, as the right-wing media would expose such with relish... or ketchup, mustard, and pickles if such is your taste. Maybe Worcestershire sauce.

I see Gingrich vs. Obama starting off much like the 2008 election results as the minimum for the President (I find the pink shade for Kentucky and the medium-red shade for Kansas incredible, but I can easily see the President winning two of Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri while winning North Carolina and Virginia solidly with other gains imaginable. Ohio seems out of reach for Newt Gingrich to an extent that it isn't for Mitt Romney.

At this stage I can say that the auto bailout has saved the President because Ohio, which depends heavily upon the auto industry for well-paying jobs, seems to be fairly stable for the President. A strengthening economy, should such continue, puts the 2012 Presidential election out of reach. 

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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. Cain... well, whoever gets recognition next as the most viable alternative to Gingrich and Romney among Republicans.

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_1207925.pdf

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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. .... I can't decide yet.

(

)

Obama vs. Gingrich:

(

)

 
Obama vs. Romney

(

)

Quinnipiac,  FL, OH, PA:



http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1678&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. .... I can't decide yet.

(

)

Obama vs. Gingrich:

(

)

 
Obama vs. Romney

(

)

Survey USA/ WXIA-TV (NBC 11, Atlanta)


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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. .... I can't decide yet.

(

)

Obama vs. Gingrich:

(

)

 
Obama vs. Romney

(

)

PPP, NC.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_1208925.pdf

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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. .... I can't decide yet.

(

)

Obama vs. Gingrich:

(

)

 
Obama vs. Romney

(

)

http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2011/12/poll-in-pa-casey-faring-well-obama-shaky.html


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Obama vs. .... I can't decide yet.

(

)

Obama vs. Gingrich:

(

)

 
Obama vs. Romney

(

)

MSNBC/Marist:

Florida:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

46% Approve
45% Disapprove

...

51% Barack Obama
39% Newt Gingrich

48% Barack Obama
41% Mitt Romney

49% Barack Obama
36% Ron Paul

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NBC_News-Marist_Poll_Florida_December_2011.pdf

South Carolina:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

44% Approve
48% Disapprove

...

46% Barack Obama
42% Newt Gingrich

45% Barack Obama
42% Mitt Romney

47% Barack Obama
37% Ron Paul

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/NBC_News-Marist_Poll_South_Carolina_December%202011.pdf

This is surprising... until you realize that Newt Gingrich isn't doing well in neighboring Georgia for a Favorite Son.  This is the first poll that shows the President with a positive approval rating in Florida, and the first in which I have seen him within striking range of victory in South Carolina in a long time.

I am reasonably satisfied that President Obama would now defeat Bachmann or Perry in either state. If you don't like this result, then just wait a while for Florida, which gets polled often. Outliers don't  thrive on this map.


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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

Obama vs. .... I can't decide yet.

()

Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

MSNBC/Marist:

Florida:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

46% Approve
45% Disapprove

...

51% Barack Obama
39% Newt Gingrich

48% Barack Obama
41% Mitt Romney

49% Barack Obama
36% Ron Paul

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NBC_News-Marist_Poll_Florida_December_2011.pdf

South Carolina:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

44% Approve
48% Disapprove

...

46% Barack Obama
42% Newt Gingrich

45% Barack Obama
42% Mitt Romney

47% Barack Obama
37% Ron Paul

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/NBC_News-Marist_Poll_South_Carolina_December%202011.pdf

This is surprising... until you realize that Newt Gingrich isn't doing well in neighboring Georgia for a Favorite Son.  This is the first poll that shows the President with a positive approval rating in Florida, and the first in which I have seen him within striking range of victory in South Carolina in a long time.

I am reasonably satisfied that President Obama would now defeat Bachmann or Perry in either state. If you don't like this result, then just wait a while for Florida, which gets polled often. Outliers don't  thrive on this map.


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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. .... I can't decide yetRON PAUL.

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

In view of the recent surge by Ron Paul in the Republican primary polls, I am now going with him as the "neither Gingrich nor Romney" alternative for now.  

Backtracking a little (to early November),

NC, PPP Obama 47-42
CO, PPP Obama 48-39
MT, PPP  Paul 48-40
AZ, PPP  Paul 43-42
PA,  PPP Obama 46-42
CA, PPP Obama 57-32
MS, PPP Paul  57-42
OH, PPP Obama 50-36
ME, PPP Obama 53-34


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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul.

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

pbrower, this FL poll you are using is from August ...

The Republican nominee must win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania if he loses Virginia.

The Senate and Congressional general ballot should be interesting in Virginia. I can almost smell a disaster erupting in Virginia for the Republicans -- and Virginia has no volcanoes.


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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul.

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Troublesome post deleted. I really need to get my eyes checked.

South Dakota -- the (Mitchell SD) Daily Republic, Nielson Brothers Polling (whoever that is -- it is not connected to ACNielsen, the media ratings firm)


Ron Paul not mentioned.

http://www.mitchellrepublic.com/event/article/id/60056/group/homepage/

...Losing South Dakota by only 9% was the best that any Democratic nominee has done in a two-way Presidential election since George McGovern  (who was the favorite son that year!) in 1972.

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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul.

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

PPP, New Mexico. Binary choices are disasters for Romney, Paul, and Gingrich. Add Gary Johnson as the Libertarian nominee, and the Republicans do even worse. Johnson picks up more votes from people who would vote for a Republican nominee than from President Obama and about half the respondents for "undecided" in binary choices.

Gary Johnson could be the 2008 equivalent of Ross Perot if this poll he is the Libertarian nominee. Sure, he would be a sort of Favorite Son, and I would be interested in how he would do in other states.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_1216513.pdf


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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul.

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

"Purple State Poll"

IOWA:

46-39 Obama/Romney
48-36 Obama/Gingrich
48-37 Obama/Jeb Bush

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

45-48 Obama/Romney
49-41 Obama/Gingrich
48-43 Obama/Jeb Bush

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/Purple-Poll-Results-12.2011.pdf

VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac)

Obama                46%    Gingrich             41%
Obama                42%    Romney             44%  

Both Gingrich and Romney do very badly among college-educated people, which might suggest that the well-educated can see right through Gingrich and Romney.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x5822.xml?ReleaseID=1684

New York (Quinnipiac)

In an early look at the 2012 presidential race, President Obama tops two leading Republican challengers:

* 53 - 35 percent over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney;

* 55 - 32 percent over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3620111218015

Yawn!

NEW JERSEY (Eagleton/Rutgers)

The poll also finds that Obama holds a strong lead in head-to-head matchups with all three GOP front-runners. While Romney does best, Obama leads him by 51 percent to 32 percent. The president doubles Gingrich, 54 percent to 27 percent, while Paul loses, 50 percent to 29 percent.

http://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~redlawsk/EP/Tables2012/2012ElectionDec2011.pdf
  


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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul.

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Obama vs. Romney

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Some of these polls seem really weird. Obama winning South Carolina in all 3 polls? Obama leading Gingrich in Kentucky and Kansas, despite trailing in Ohio?

1. Only one entity polls Kansas, and that one has a result that looks like a transposition error.  But even as a transposition error it is amazingly close, at least with Newt Gingrich. Kansas should be one of the very strongest states for any Republican against Barack Obama, who lost it by nearly 15%. Only three counties went for the President, and even Sedgwick County (Wichita) went decisively for John McCain.

Kansas may have been a haven for Republican moderates when Dole and Kassebaum were Senators, but that is past. The state may not be the most polarized in America on 'race', but it also has few minorities. The economic base heavily relies upon ranching, an activity that seems not to require a highly-educated workforce, let alone big government. Except for metro Kansas City, Wichita, Topeka, and Lawrence, it is not at all urban. 

Any Republican nominee who loses Kansas does so in a debacle resembling the Presidential  election of 1932, 1936, or 1964.

2. South Carolina may be undergoing political change. Take a good look at its neighbor North Carolina. Like North Carolina it is attracting many Yankee migrants, and those bring relatively liberal values with them. South Carolina is urbanizing, and if it lacks a giant metro area like Atlanta or Charlotte it has several mid-sized cities big enough to need Big Government. It's easy to imagine that the public sector is overstretched as the Hard Right dominates.

The last Democratic nominee to win South Carolina was Good Ol' Boy Jimmy Carter in 1976 in a one-time election in which poor Southern whites voted their economic interests just as poor Southern blacks did. Should that happen again, then President Obama wins South Carolina. Does anyone see that happening? President Obama has an outside chance of winning the state in something like a 55-45 split of the Presidential vote nationwide.

3. Kentucky used to be a legitimate swing state. That is over. In 2008 the current President was a very poor cultural match for a very rural state with few minorities. This was the ninth-worst state for President Obama in 2008, and he lost the state by 16%.  It's safe to say that if President Obama wins the state then he has won a landslide in the electoral college... and he has won over the sorts who voted for Bill Clinton but not for him.

4. Ohio has consistently been close. Such is exactly what one expects in a 50-50 election. Several states seem to bounce around the 50-50 area, and except for Colorado (becoming a disaster for the GOP) and Arizona (would have been close if someone other than John McCain were the nominee)  those are the states that went from Dubya to Obama. The medium-to-large states most  in question next year for the President will be Arizona, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. The Republican nominee will have to win every one of these states to have a real chance. Michigan and Pennsylvania are Republican pipe dreams in 2012, and I don't see Mitt Romney winning New Hampshire unless he throws resources into the state more critical elsewhere. 

So far I see a pattern. The 2012 Presidential election looks like a GOP disaster with any GOP nominee other than Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney is in the position in which he has six or so critical states to win, all of them easily characterized as 50-50 propositions. He must seal the deal on them all or lose. One chance in 128 is a very poor position (the chance of getting six coin tosses going one's way) and a horrible proposition. The six states in question are diverse enough that no single appeal works in them all, and that they are scattered enough that spirited campaigns in them all will be difficult.  If Romney strengthens in Arizona or Missouri but loses ground in Ohio or Virginia then he is defeated.

The position of Mitt Romney ten and a half months before the Presidential election looks much like that of John McCain around late August or early September of 2008 -- having a chance to win if everything went right by winning Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. The position in which anyone else is looks much like the electoral result of 2008, perhaps with President Obama exchanging Indiana for Arizona or Missouri.  Such is a difference between the President having about 265 electoral votes as near-sure things and having about 360 electoral votes as near-sure things.   

Nevada (University of Nevada/Las Vegas Review-Journal/CBS 8:

Obama had 45.7 percent support compared with 39.8 percent for Romney in the survey, a six-point advantage. The remaining 14.5 percent said they didn't like either choice or didn't know whom to pick.

The president crushed U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, 45.4 percent to 35.7 percent, in the poll for a 10-point advantage. And Obama stomped Newt Gingrich by 12 points, 47.3 percent to 35.4 percent.

http://www.lvrj.com/news/obama-the-one-to-beat-in-nevada-poll-shows-136055218.html?ref=218

Nevada has an even worse economy than Michigan or Ohio, and President Obama is ahead.
  


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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul.

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Obama vs. Romney

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The first statewide poll pitting the President against potential challengers since Christmas.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_011012.pdf
  


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Obama vs. Gingrich:

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Obama vs. Ron Paul.

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Obama vs. Romney

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Really a dreadful showing for Republicans in a state that they have lost only twice since 1964, and a state that they absolutely must win if they are to unseat President Obama. If this state is decided by a razor-thin margin in 2012, President Obama wins.

Almost any strong third-party or independent candidate wins the race for President Obama.

PPP and Quinnipiac now consider Rick Santorum relevant after the Iowa caucuses. So far they poll only two states on how R.S. would do against President Obama, but those (Florida by Quinnipiac and North Carolina by PPP) are critical to any Republican success in defeating President Obama if possible. Quinnipiac now ignores Gingrich and didn't mention Paul in a potential matchup against President Obama in Florida. I may drop Gingrich at any time if he himself drops out or becomes irrelevant.

For Santorum, those are only polls from 2012, as Santorum was insignificant before the Iowa caucuses.

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Obama vs. Gingrich:

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Obama vs. Ron Paul

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Obama vs. Romney

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Obama vs. Santorum

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Two polls by Quinnipiac. First, New Jersey:


Nothing is shown for other possible Presidential matchups. Quinnipiac has
extensive results on the Governor and legislative bodies, which are probably more relevant. If Romney doesn't have a chance to win New Jersey against President Obama, then  neither does anyone else. 


...and the definitive swing state:


BUT -- no Republican defeats him:




http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1690


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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

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Obama vs. Romney

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Obama vs. Santorum

()

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/fla-poll-dead-heat-between-obama-and-romney-who-leads-i-4-corridor

The body of the article has a chart suggesting how Florida itself splits by cities. It simply does not transfer well to this format through an obvious clip-and-paste.  In essence, President Obama does extremely well in Miami, very well in Orlando, OK in Tampa, not at all well in Jacksonville, and very badly in West Palm. This is a statistical tie, which is more significant than the hue. Like North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia the state bounces around an even split.

...At this stage the President is nearly even in most of the obvious swing states, which is about where he was in the latter part of the summer of 2008 with Mitt Romney standing in for John McCain. In effect President Obama has many possible ways to victory and few for defeat. Against anyone but Mitt Romney the President stands to win somewhere between Clinton in 1996 and Reagan in 1984 with a mean (I would guess) suggesting Eisenhower in 1956.

Another way to look at the Obama-Romney matchup is to see that it now looks much like a replay of the 2000 election with President Obama in the role of Al Gore (both seem to lose New Hampshire) except that President Obama has effectively locked up Colorado and Nevada to adjust to the shift in electoral votes since 2000... but this time President Obama has about a 50-50 chance in a raft of states scattered about the country (New Hampshire itself, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, and Arizona) that the Republicans absolutely must win. These states are different enough politically that Mitt Romney cannot tailor an approach that wins them all. Mitt Romney is going to need a mass shift of support from Obama to himself to win. That is still possible, but I can't see how he can do it.  If the President locks down even one of these states on any issue  he wins.  He has not yet won, and there is plenty of time for a mass shift of voter attitudes.

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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

...not too bad for a state that the President lost decisively in 2008, has spent little time in, and has no cultural affinities to.


Something of a surprise. Maybe left-wing "class warfare" really is a losing proposition in Texas! Is Gingrich going nuts?


A third-party candidate from the Right does NOT swing Texas (I am not showing that). 

...Perry dropped out today, but he won't be of any help to the GOP as a VP candidate.


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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

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Obama vs. Romney

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Obama vs. Santorum

()

Marist has highly-detailed polling results on New York State as a potential battleground between President Barack Obama  against each of the remaining Republicans:



Let's put it this way: the President has a better chance of winning Texas than the Republican nominee will have of winning New York.

...University poll, Wisconsin. Only one Presidential matchup:


No other binary matchups are shown

This question and response suggests that any bias in sampling does not favor the President or Democrats on the whole, in view of how an often-embattled Governor is seen:



https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/MLSPJanToplines.pdf



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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

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Obama vs. Santorum

()

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1695


Q consistently gets results more R-leaning than do other pollsters... so although this poll looks like a decline for President Obama it is an improvement over the most recent Q poll.

PPP may still have binary matchups to release for Minnesota... and will be polling Missouri and Ohio, two other legitimate swing states this weekend. Those will be interesting.



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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

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Obama vs. Santorum

()

Franklin&Marshall, Pennsylvania:


Read more: http://citizensvoice.com/news/new-poll-produces-mixed-results-for-obama-1.1262751#ixzz1kb8Gvyju

Results involving Gingrich are deemed obsolete in the source and suppressed.  A binary matchup between the President and Congressman Ron Paul is not shown. For this poll I am blanking Pennsylvania for Gingrich and Paul because the change involving Obama vs. Romney is huge.  It's hard to imagine Ron Paul being down by only 3% in Pennsylvania if Mitt Romney is down by 11%.

The newspaper article suggests what as I see as the norm in Pennsylvania in an election year (as in Michigan): the state looks like an over-ripe fruit about ready to drop into the Republican roster of wins only to slip away as Democrats get their act together.

Speaking of Michigan -- I got polled this week.






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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

PPP, Minnesota


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012612.pdf

Boring!

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Obama vs. Gingrich:

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Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

Michigan -- EPIC/Detroit Free Press


Two months ago the same pollster had Romney up on President Obama 46-41. Nothing is shown on Obama vs. Paul or Obama vs. Santorum.

http://www.freep.com/article/20120126/NEWS15/120126046/New-poll-Obama-takes-48-40-lead-over-Romney-in-Michigan



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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

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Obama vs. Santorum

()

Virginia has voted for the Democratic nominee for President only twice since the 1948 -- the LBJ blowout and the 2008 election. It looks very close between Obama and Romney (virtual tie) but a blowout for the President against Gingrich.   



http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/01/poll-shows-kain.php

Paul and Santorum are not mentioned in this poll. It's beginning to look much like the Presidential race around September 1, 2008 -- when the current President had no certainty  of winning the election but had very few ways in which to lose and many in which to win -- at least against Romney. Against others, the President looks set for a blowout win.

PPP will be polling Ohio (clear-but-narrow Obama win in 2008) and Missouri (bare Obama loss in 2008) this weekend.

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Obama vs. Gingrich:

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Obama vs. Ron Paul

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Obama vs. Romney

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Obama vs. Santorum

()

Wow! Three contradictory polls on Florida!

The old one is roughly the mean between two outliers, and the old one is probably right.

PPP, Ohio.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_02012.pdf

Ohio is about R+2 in most Presidential elections. I don't know whether this will stick. In general add about 6% to the approval rating for an incumbent seeking re-election at the start of campaign season  and you get a fair estimate of the results in the next election.  At this point I would predict that President Obama is going to have a win somewhere between that of Clinton in 1996 and Eisenhower in 1956.

It is a bad idea for any Republican to carp about the auto bailout if he wants to win Ohio. That is one sure way to lose Ohio. Rick Santorum may have done less of that than the other three. 

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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

PPP: Obama competitive in Missouri


Regionally-straddling Missouri is a legitimate swing state. I can't think of any state quite like it politically. The Republican nominee will need to win Missouri to have a chance, but as in 2008, winning Missouri will be far from enough.  If President Obama has a 50-50 chance of winning Missouri, then he projects to win somewhere between 380 and 390 electoral votes. 
 

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Obama vs. Gingrich:

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Obama vs. Ron Paul

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Obama vs. Romney

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Obama vs. Santorum

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New Hampshire, WMUR-TV (ABC 9)


http://www.wmur.com/politics/30373435/detail.html#ixzz1lNccCCXg

My comment: cheap shots at President Obama will not win. At this point I see little chance of any Republican nominee picking off any state that the President won by at least 5% in 2008 in 2012.

Survey USA, Georgia:

Romney 51-43, Gingrich 50-44 over Obama (nothing on Paul or Santorum). It changes little.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=774e93a3-2218-4c03-85da-37eeaa04047e

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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

This election is slowly feeling more and more like a paddlin'.

Siena College Research Institute
January 29 - February 1, 2012
807 New York State Registered Voters
MOE +/- 3.4%

...

Barack Obama

64% Favorable
34% Unfavorable

If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

63% Barack Obama
31% Mitt Romney

65% Barack Obama
29% Ron Paul

65% Barack Obama
28% Rick Santorum

68% Barack Obama
26% Newt Gingrich

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY012912%20Crosstabs.pdf

President Obama won the state 62-37 in 2008 and looks to be in a max-out position.  If anyone wishes to ask under what circumstance the 'undecided' would break against the incumbent, then this is it -- when the incumbent has pushed the zone of the 'undecided' voters into the area of ideological opposition.

CT, Yankee Institute/Rasmussen


http://www.yankeeinstitute.org/2012/02/voters-back-obama-murphy-in-new-poll/

No surprise here in view of recent polls of neighboring New York and near-neighboring New Hampshire. Nothing on Ron Paul or Rick Santorum here. .  

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Obama vs. Gingrich:

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Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

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Obama vs. Santorum

()

Virginia, Quinnipiac, February 2012:


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1700

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Obama vs. Gingrich:

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Obama vs. Romney

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Obama vs. Santorum

()

 

Outside of Chicagoland President Obama isn't so popular. Geographic lesson here: Outside of Greater Chicago, Illinois is quite rural. Political lesson here: President Obama does badly in rural areas. President Obama is the definitive "urban" President and does adequately in suburbia. The only rural areas in which he does well are those with large minority populations.


http://www.wgntv.com/news/ct-met-0209-obama-poll-20120210,0,1888691.story

Nothing on Obama vs. Santorum or Obama vs. Paul, so nothing to change on the map.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/barack-obamas-approval-numbers-have-been-on-the-rise-nationally-as-of-late-and-the-same-trend-has-come-to-north-carolina-48.html#more


Rasmussen, Ohio (with a "likely voters" screen)



http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_presidential_election

(How can anyone predict what a "likely voter" is this early?)

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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

[Rasmussen: Obama up 3% on Romney, up 1% on Santorum


(How can anyone predict what a "likely voter" is this early?)

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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

And now, for the Great Mystery of the Ages -- how well will Rick Santorum do in California?

Obama: 60%  --  Romney: 31%

Obama: 61%  --  Santorum: 29%

Obama: 63%  --  Gingrich: 27%

Obama: 60%  --  Paul: 29%

Badly.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=39de218d-a465-4ca7-b7a4-752edc520da8

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Obama vs. Gingrich:

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Obama vs. Ron Paul

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Obama vs. Romney

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Obama vs. Santorum

()

Flawed polls (internals, one obsolete R and one D). No binary matchup other than Obama vs. Romney.  But it is Indiana, and beggars can't be choosers when it comes to Indiana polling, at least so far.    


http://www.courierpress.com/news/2012/feb/12/obama-office-signals-optimism-as-recession/

The 42% approval rating for the President is obsolete; it is from December, and from before the time when the President went from about 45% approval to about 50%. I would guess that the approval rating for the President is in the 46-48% range in Indiana, which is good enough at this stage for a bare win for the President in Indiana.

At this point, Indiana is a possible Obama win in the general election. The state will be a difficult takeover for Republicans, but not as difficult as Ohio. If Indiana is this close at this stage, then President Obama has a chance at 370 or so electoral votes. Indiana going for President Obama in 2008 was not simply a one-time freak event. The state is drifting D in statewide elections.  Just don't treat Indiana as "sure R". A weak Republican nominee for President can lose Indiana.

I suspect that if Dick Lugar is the nominee he wins decisively unless he suddenly goes erratic. But if Dick Lugar is tea-bagged, then Indiana might be a D Senate pickup. For President Obama that would be worth more than the 11 electoral votes of Indiana.  

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Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

PPP, Michigan


Obama vs. Gingrich     56-34
Obama vs. Ron Paul    52-34
Obama vs. Romney     54-38
Obama vs. Santorum  50-39

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_215.pdf
 

Quinnipiac, New York (state). No surprise.


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1705

Quinnipiac, Ohio:

Obama vs. Gingrich 50-39
Obama vs. Ron Paul 46-41
Obama vs. Romney  46-44
Obama vs. Santorum 47-41

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1706

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Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

Rasmussen, New Mexico. Safe Obama. Gingrich and R. Paul not shown.

Obama 55 - Romney 36
Obama 55 - Santorum 37

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Obama vs. Gingrich:

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Obama vs. Romney

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Obama vs. Santorum

()

California (Rasmussen):


No changes needed here.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/california2/election_2012_california_president

Washington State (Survey USA) -- safe Obama against anyone.

Obama 56 - Gingrich 34
Obama 50 - Ron Paul 37
Obama 50 - Romney 39
Obama 51 - Santorum 38

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e4c63883-1bd5-4b68-aa9f-28ddca972884



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Obama vs. Gingrich:

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Obama vs. Ron Paul

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Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

Could Massachusetts voters be tiring of voting for Democrats for President?

Romney-Republican ..............................  39%

Obama-Democrat .................................  53%



Santorum-Republican ............................ 32%

Obama-Democrat .................................  59%



Gingrich-Republican ............................  23%

Obama-Democrat ................................. 63%



Paul-Republican ................................  26%

Obama-Democrat .................................  60%


No, as this Suffolk University poll shows.

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FRIDAY_FINAL_MA_Statewide_Marginals_Feb_17_2012%281%29.pdf



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

I've been away for a while -- so here is an update.

Tennessee (category, Clinton win, Obama crushed in 2008)

http://www.castleton.edu/polling/feb12/2012primaries_additional.htm


38-42-10 Obama/Santorum/Not vote
39-42-10 Obama/Romney/Not vote
39-40-13 Obama/Paul/Not vote
41-38-12 Obama/Gingrich/Not vote

(Accept this poll at your own risk due to the large number of undecided voters)

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20120226/NEWS02/302260066/Rick-Santorum-leads-big-TN-poll-finds

Vermont (one of the best states for Obama):

all over 20%

http://www.castleton.edu/polling/feb12/2012primaries_additional.htm

Virginia (Rasmussen):
 
Obama vs. Romney       49-42
Obama vs. Santorum    52-43

Arizona, PPP:

Obama vs. Gingrich 48-44
Obama vs. Paul 46-42
Obama vs. Romney 47-47
Obama vs. Santorum 46-47


(nothing on Gingrich or Paul)

Last week's poll on Iowa looks fishy.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/virginia/election_2012_virginia_presidential_election



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

One that I missed (Montana, Rasmussen):

48% Romney
41% Obama

45% Santorum
41% Obama


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/montana/election_2012_montana_president

Gingrich and Paul are not shown in this poll, and I am stuck with obsolete polls for them for binary matchups  between them and the President. Chances of either Gingrich or Paul winning the state if nominated are much lower than they appear on the map. Their chances of winning the nomination are also both approaching zero, and it is only a matter of time before they become irrelevant by being mathematically eliminated or "suspending their campaigns" as did Bachmann and Perry.

At this point the safest prediction for the Presidential election of 2012 is a near-replay of the 2008 Presidential election against either. If Arizona looks like an exception such shows nothing more than the reversal of the Favorite Son effect. As in 2008, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina are clearly too close to call. Without John McCain as the nominee, Arizona would have been too close to call.



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

NJ, Survey USA:


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3856a747-3445-4697-aff6-b33c3b202aff

Other binary matchups have margins ranging from 14% (Romney) to 34% (Gingrich). I expect Gingrich to give up around midnight on Super Tuesday. 

Wisconsin, Rasmussen:





under 1% white
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5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

Did you just discard the Iowa poll? I think that you shouldn't do that because although it's fool's gold for republicans I wouldn't be surprised given what Iowans have been exposed to. And I notice you put Arkansas to Obama in Obama vs. Paul, was that a correction from a poll a while ago that you didn't put it into Paul's map or something?

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

I did because it makes no sense except as transposition errors for all binary matchups of the President against everyone but Gingrich. Iowa is usually about 2% more R than either Minnesota or Wisconsin and much more D than Missouri which looks like a virtual tie. Selzer was usually a very good pollster in 2008 and likely will be again. Did someone at the Des Moines Register mis-set some type, perhaps?

Arkansas? There are no polls for Arkansas in recent months, That correction will be made. I must have done a typo. Arkansas should be gray. The pink shades for Kansas and Kentucky with Gingrich vs. Obama look suspect until you figure that it is against Newt Gingrich who seems like the sort who would lose badly against any mediocre incumbent.   

Marist/MSNBC, Ohio --

Registered voters.

Obama 50 - Romney 38.
Obama 52 - Gingrich 36.
Obama 48 - Paul 38
Obama 50 - Santorum 36.

Santorum does one point better if he has Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) as a running mate.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/120304NBCMaristOhioMarch2012.pdf


Marist/MSNBC, Virginia --

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 52
Mitt Romney, the Republican - 35

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats - 51
Mitt Romney and Bob McDonnell, the Republicans - 36

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 54
Rick Santorum, the Republican - 32

Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats - 51
Rick Santorum and Bob McDonnell, the Republicans - 34

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 57
Newt Gingrich, the Republican - 31

Barack Obama, the Democrat - 53
Ron Paul, the Republican - 32

This in a state that has gone for the Democratic nominee for President only twice in the last 60 years. Ohio has long been and Virginia may now be a legitimate swing state in a close Presidential election. It may be that President Obama is an unusually-good fit as a Democrat for Virginia.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/120304NBCMaristVirginiaMarch2012.pdf

Few combinations of states look closer to the American mean in partisan voting than these two states. Outliers? You tell me. Does Marist have a D bias by heavily picking young voters or voters in Cleveland and Richmond to an inordinate degree? Or is there some national trend just entering the polling results?

The Republican nominee will need both states to have a chance to win. If either state goes to President Obama by 10%, then President Obama has a landslide in the working.


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

Nebraska, Rasmussen:

Romney 52 - Obama 35

Rasmussen shows no other matchups.

PPP. Maine:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/.a/6a0133f2dd8001970b016763916452970b-800wi

President Obama basically intensifies his margins over all but Rick Santorum, for whom there was no earlier matchup -- and nothing is close. The state is homogeneous enough that neither of Maine's two Congressional seats has any likelihood of going for any Republican nominee this time.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

Pennsylvania, PPP:


This may have an R bias, Just look at the split among voters:


...President Obama won the state by about 12%. This looks like a 2010 electorate. Rick Santorum shows a huge favorite Son effect.

A Quinnipiac poll concurs.



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

I love it how when the polls show Santorum > Romney, the maps show just the opposite. Bias much?

If Romney is beating Obama according to the latest ABC/WashPost poll at this point in time, then I think Romney can beat Obama 6 months from now.  Either way, the election will be very close, similar to 2004.  It will really be up to Romney to determine how he can get to 51%, probably by picking a strategic VP to pick up catholic voters. 

North Carolina, PPP:



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_031412.pdf  

Fairleigh-Dickinson, New Jersey


What is noteworthy is how badly the remaining Republicans do among women.


Newt Gingrich has become a joke.


under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

46% - Barack Obama (D)
43% - Mitt Romney (R)

45% - Barack Obama (D)
43% - Rick Santorum (R)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president

No change except for the exhaustion of precious time that the Republican challengers to the President can't get back. There is no way for the Republican nominee to lose Florida and win the 2012 Presidential election. Rasmussen has nothing on either Gingrich or Paul this time; apparently this pollster thinks them irrelevant. I'm not changing what I already have.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()
[/quote]

In a matchup of President Obama and Vice President Joseph Biden against Romney and McDonnell, the Democrats win 50 - 43 percent.

Obama wins head to head against other Republican contenders:

    54 - 35 percent over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich;
    49 - 40 percent over former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum;
    49 - 39 percent over Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul. 

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()


This is consistent with President Obama losing Missouri and Arizona by high-single-digit margins on Rasmussen.

Nevada, Rasmussen.  Nobody can reliably screen for "likely voters" at this stage, so I am ignoring Rasmussen polls that look like outliers in Arizona and Missouri. But those in Nevada for President Obama in Nevada are so blatant that there is no alternative explanation.


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

Massachusetts, PPP:

This time PPP asked about Ron Paul. Mitt Romney might do even worse in the state in which he was Governor than McGovern did in South Dakota in 1972.  

Oregon, Survey USA

Obama vs. Romney 50-39
Obama vs. Gingrich 54-34
Obama vs. Santorum 49-40
Obama vs. Paul 48-39

Connecticut, Q:



Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

Rasmussen, Virginia:


President Obama won the state by about 7% in 2008.  This almost suggests a Republican collapse in the Presidential election no matter who is nominated.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (ARG)


http://americanresearchgroup.com/

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

Another California poll shows President Obama crushing ever potential Republican nominee.

()

Yawn!

Arkansas:

http://talkbusiness.net/2012/03/obama-holding-democrats-but-failing-with-independent-voters/

Do you approve or disapprove of the job that President Barack Obama is doing?

32%       Approve
63.5%   Disapprove
4.5%      Don’t Know

If the 2012 presidential election were held today and your choices were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote?

56.5%     Mitt Romney
33%        Barack Obama
10.5%     Don’t Know

...at this point I figure that President Obama would actually pick up a majority of those in the "Don't Know" category because at this point most of the "Don't Know" are mostly Democratic-leaning voters. That's far from enough to make this state, once a reliable state for Democrats except in R blowouts except when a segregationist was running, even close in November.  

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Nothing for Gingrich (who cares, and I am about to drop him anyway), Paul, or Santorum here.

Quinnipiac will show polls for Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania at 6:30 AM EDT tomorrow.


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1727

Obama doing better in Florida than in Pennsylvania? Could it be that Cuban-Americans are drifting D in Florida? Better in Ohio than in Pennsylvania? It could be the auto industry.

No mention of Gingrich or Paul.

No way does any Republican nominee win the Presidency without two of these three states. Quinnipiac seems to be the most R-leaning of major pollsters that I generally accept (probably more than Rasmussen), which suggests how poor the chances look for anyone challenging President Obama in November.   Al three of the states have Republicans governors, and I can imagine Governor Scott giving a little help to his friends in November if the statewide election is close and Florida is the difference. But 7%? It's hard to rig an election credibly. (Yes, I think that Rick Scott is that corrupt, just like Scott Walker in Wisconsin). I just can't see him risking a federal prison term for doing so  should Eric Holder is sure to return as Attorney General of the United States.  Pennsylvania tends to break D late because of union GOTV drives. 

Carter won all three states in 1976 (and needed them all). Reagan and the elder Bush won all three in R landslides in 1980, 1984, and 1988. Clinton won two of the three in 1992 and all three in 1996. Gore won only one (would have won had he won in Florida); Kerry barely won Pennsylvania and lost the other two (but he would have won with Ohio). Obama won all three. 





under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

PPP rates Nebraska by its districts. PPP's text does not indicate whether the polling relates to the new districts or the old ones. NE-02 is a legitimate swing district this time, no matter who the Republican nominee will be.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

52% Barack Obama (D)
41% Mitt Romney (R)

51% Barack Obama (D)
39% Rick Santorum (R)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president

About as in 2008.

Corroboration:

51-38 Obama/Santorum
51-36 Obama/Paul
52-35 Obama/Romney
56-31 Obama/Gingrich

Obama Approval:

50-40

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/330-romney-leads-santorum-by-7-points-in-wisconsin

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:

()

Obama vs. Ron Paul

()

 
Obama vs. Romney

()

Obama vs. Santorum

()

You need to change the title, Cain is no longer in the race.

I have tried to change the title and my effort didn't work. I'm going to try some other method. A hint: I no longer consider either Paul nor Gingrich viable candidates for nomination.

I hereby close this thread.