Talk Elections

A bit early, but all the talk is about Legault's new CAQ party.

I've done up a rough projection based on recent polling

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Warning though, this uses the old map.

I can't tell, do you have the ADQ winning any seats?

Clearly the CAQ would win many of the seats the ADQ did in 2007.

No, the ADQ only wins seats when the CAQ is very weak.

What is green?

And I don't see Liberals keeping my riding Abitibi-Est. They lost it in 2007 and won it by only 250 votes in 2011.

Green is QS

Hidden at the bottom of the recent Leger poll I used to build this.

Would you vote for a provincial NDP?
Total:
YES - 34%
NO - 20%
DUNNO - 46%

PLQ
YES - 29%
NO - 35%

PQ
YES - 34%
NO - 27%

ADQ
YES - 46%
NO - 12%

QS
YES - 44%
NO - 16%



If anyone is interested, let me know, and I'll build an ElectoMatic with a Quebec NDP.

Right now it's all Charbonneau Commission, all the time. Legault has said he's only serving a single term should he win, and presumably like the ADQ the party collapses without him. Then back to business as usual. As for who might replace Marois, right now it looks to be Curzi. No one is behind Charest, now that Normandeau, Mulcair, Couillard and Dupuis are gone in one way or another. L'actualite has a profile of Legault if anyone's interested.

Platforms: School boards aside, the CAQ platform is essentially centre-left like the Grits. Less radical than Charest's 2003 manifesto IMO. The man had a horrible record at Education (implemtning the ghastly "reforms" along with Marois that I narrowly escaped) and an otherwise mediocre career. Yet he's supposedly the savior. I'll go on the record now as saying this is the ADQ c. 2007 all over again, with a similar final outcome.

Lulz.

Yeah, I don't understand the Duceppe nostalgia either. What I find more interesting is what will happen in 2016, when Legault will leave (f he keeps the one-term pledge) and presumably the CAQ leaves with him.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1078940--hebert-faint-hope-for-duceppe-as-saviour

CAQ is now officially registered.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201110/31/01-4463091-nouveau-parti-de-francois-legault-demande-deposee-au-dge.php

I presume that that acronym is significantly less amusing in French.

That is the French acronym: Coalition pour l'avenir du Quebec,

Yes, but in English you would pronounce 'CAQ' as Cack. Is that word used in Canada? If not, then this is only funny to all three British people who follow Quebec provincial politics.

What is Cack?

In English it would be the Coalition for the Future of Quebec (CFQ). However no one I know, regardless of political or linguistic affilation, calls it that. Hell, most press reports still refer to it in one way or another as the party led by Legault, which is entirely accurate. He hasn't even unveiled any star candidates yet, just some obscure people of different affiliations (former federal Tory candidate, former Peq, former Adequiste) but no names even the hardest-core junkies would recognize. I do know that he tried to recruit Marlene Jennings but got turned down, and that's all we've heard on the candidate front.

My theory? No one wants to hitch their name to a time-limited enterprise and an affiliation which might hurt them down the road if they want to run with one of the established parties. You can't recruit big names unless you convince one to jump in and trigger a chain reaction, as happened successfully with the federal Liberals in '65.

Another regional association president asks Marois to step down. They're deluding themselves if they think a) a guy Kim Campbelled 6 months ago is the solution b) that the product, not the marketer, is the problem.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-au-pq/201110/31/01-4463176-le-president-du-pq-dans-les-laurentides-reclame-duceppe-en-renfort.php

Legault's poll numbers are on an education curve.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-nouvelliste/actualites/201111/01/01-4463210-francois-legault-gagnant-a-trois-rivieres.php

All of your stories are in French...

Well, I got it.

It's not that hard to read, is it?

Seven defectors to CAQ in the current Assemblee by February?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201111/01/01-4463545-francois-legault-vise-sept-deputes-en-fevrier.php

now THIS is what I've been waiting for. (clicks on the google translate)

story
Well that's a deadline
So the plan is to absorb the ADQ

Despite appearances, it won't require some serious adjustments to the ideological recipe. CAQ is centre-to-centre-right, the ADQ is the UN's successor party in all but name. Case in point: ADQ supports formalized 2-tier healthcare, CAQ puts all their eggs in the social... I mean Medicare basket. But the ADQ has been a shell for the past 30 months, so no adjustment required. Think of an alternate scenario with the PCs absorbing the Alliance, and PC culture/ideology predominating. That's essentially what will happen here.

I had suspected Picard and Caire would jump. I'm surprised they didn't leap the day Legault announced that he was thinking about creating a new right of... and I'd have thought they'd have joined before he finished his sentance; regardless, my money is on both of them becoming CAQers... CAQys? ASAP. As for the rest of the ADQ I think it's possible and if the ADQ performs poorly in the polls perhaps even a bit likely.

The problem is what happens when Legault leaves in 2016. CAQ can still survive as a shell, much as the ADQ has post-Dumont, but unless he finds a credible successor among his list of star candidates then curtains.

Most likely CAQ will not run in the Bonaventure by-election that will determine Normandeau's successor, which allows both Charest and Marois to save face.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/334951/le-piege-de-bonaventure

any word on when that by-election will be?

It was called for December 5th.

According to Radio-Canada (http://www.radio-canada.ca/regions/est-quebec/2011/11/02/003-gaspesie-les-iles-bonaventure-elections.shtml (http://www.radio-canada.ca/regions/est-quebec/2011/11/02/003-gaspesie-les-iles-bonaventure-elections.shtml))

CAQ won't run a candidate.
Liberal candidate in Damien Arsenault, mayor of the municipality of Saint-Elzéar, 500 inhabitants.
QS candidate Patricia Chartier, staffer of the NDP MP for Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Philip Toone.
The PQ candidate will be chosen on November 6. Only one person wants to be the PQ candidate right now, Sylvain Roy, sociology teacher in a college at Carleton-sur-Mer and former municipal councillor at Escuminac.
No name from ADQ yet.

What are the rules? Could I run for the ADQ?

You're not a resident of Quebec, so presumably the answer is no.

Yes Please! :)

And I'm dumbfounded that ADQ'rs are more likely then QS'rs to vote QNPD? but PQ politics is all over the map fun :)
Anyone from Quebec know why there has been no movement to reform a provincial wing (for the third time i think it would be) of the NDP? I know the QS occupies most of the apace the QNPD would (minus the sovereignty thing) but based on those numbers the party should be foaming at the mouth. I understand the membership is pretty thin but given the leadership race with three Quebecers (Saganash, Mulcair and ok Topp too) that should boost the parties presence even more.

CAQ seems to be ADQ lite, less aggressively right-wing, but still taste as bad :P

Because the PQ is where most left-wingers park their votes.

Shocker: PLQ accepts illegal donations.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/02/01-4463867-papiers-fraser-a-verse-4-presumes-dons-illegaux-au-plq.php

Well, I for one am deeply shocked. I presume that everyone else here is... shocked?

Shocked!... that we are only finding out now :)

Indeed. I can't find a word strong enough to describe my shock.

Okaay... Marois saying that Duceppe can have whatever (subordinate) post he wants.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/335120/en-bref-marois-ouvre-la-porte-a-duceppe

So I haven't been able to find much information... Is the CAQ considered a right-wing party? 

I keep getting this question, so here's a link to their policy papers and everyone can make their own judgment.

http://www.coalitionavenir.org/publications.php

Great. What colour are we supposed to use for them on maps? Between the PQ, Liberals and ADQ, it seems every possible shade of red and blue are taken.

Purple? Of course if the ADQ are wiped out then it's not a problem.

Purple seems the best. There's nothing particularly radical in their proposals. Indeed, I feel vindicated in my judgment of centrist, even centre-left.

EP1: Create a $5 billion fund from general revenue and the Caisse to buy minority stakes in natural resource projects.

EP2: Increase Caisse spending.

EP3: Protect agricultural land to keep it in domestic hands.

EP4: Support the transfer of businesses to next generation and/or employees.

EP5: Encourage Quebecers (presumably through tax credits) to invest in Quebec businesses.

EP6: Tax credits for companies which invest in renewable tech.

EP7: Coordinate with the major pension funds on an international marketing strategy.

EP8: Support the emergence of investment funds that a) allow participation by the general public b) invest in tech.

EP9: Exploit our natural resources.

EP10: 100% of natural resource revenue diverted to debt service.


Health: (100% committed to public system, unlike the openly two-tierish ADQ)

H1: Modify pharmacists' salaries to encourage adoption of more patients (presumably along the carrot/stick formula used for doctors).

H2: Boost numbers of nurses and administrators to help family doctors.

H3: Allow lengthier prescription times and allow pharmacists to issue prescriptions under certain circumstances.

H4: Impose structures that would allow family doctors to ensure continuity of care.

H5: Promote family doctors.


Education:

E1. Increase elementary and secondary school teachers' salaries by 20%.

E2. Abolish all school boards, return most of regional directorates' powers to schools.

E3. Encourage post-secondary institutions to boost enrollment and pool resources.


Language/Culture

LC1. Increase funding for immigrant integration, particularly French-language education.

LC2. Two-year immigration freeze.

LC3. Renegotiate the Ottawa-Quebec immigration accord to allow for 95% family-class immigrants instead of the current 20%.

LC4. Stricter enforcement of the language laws' commercial provisions.

LC5. Improve both English-second-language and French teaching at the post-secondary level.

LC6. Close the loophole that allows for a switch from English-private to English-public for certain Anglo/Allos by invoking Section 33. (notwithstanding clause)

LC7. Major boost in cultural funding.

CAQ, ADQ, and PQ all use Blue as their primary colour. I could use a dark blue (as the ADQ usually gets standard blue and the PQ light blue, at least on english maps - french maps reverse them for some reason)

I could also use Green since it's not like the Verts are going to be winning a seat anytime soon.

308 is using purple, so it might be the colour I'll use. When else has purple been used for Canadian election maps? My 1997 Elections Canada map had the Bloc as purple.

Purple generally gets used for new parties :P The Bloc was "assigned" purple in 1993, and prior to that Quebec Social Credit took a turn in very old documents, etc. Any time the main colours are taken and a new party comes up, it's assigned purple.

Purple is the main un-used colour in Canadian politics which is why the agencies (Elections Canada, Elections Ontario) use it.

Greens will run Jean Cloutier, vice-president of the Green Party.
He was the federal Green Candidate in Louis-Saint-Laurent (Québec City) in 2008 and 2011.

He is a public servant and a former member of Bloc executive in Québec-Est and Louis-Saint-Laurent. He also was on the executive of Vanier PQ, founder of the first executive of Vanier ADQ.

He now is in both Green parties.
He also was the spokeperson of the young group of "Progrès Civique de Québec", a candidate for "Action civique de Québec" and was a candidate to be the candidate of "Défi vert de Québec" (Green Challenge of Québec) in the last mayoral election.

All that according to his very lenghly bio on the federal Greens website.

Also, it does not matter what we think, it only matters what the media tells people.

A friend of mine had the best line on our (Quebec's) current political mood: we're riding a wind of change for change's sake, regardless of the outcome. Plus the political messiah complex.

looks like CAQ will sit on the Centre right-Right if they do what the ADQ would like:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2011/11/08/qc-adq-legault-merger.html

Centre-left pablum mixed with Blue Toryism? ERROR, DOES NOT COMPUTE.

According to Radio-Canada, ADQ candidate in Bonaventure is Georges Painchaud.
He was the liberal candidate in Vachon (southern suburbs of Montreal) for provincial Liberals in 2008.
He was also the leader of the Policemen Fraternity of Montreal (the policemen union in Montreal) from 2001 to 2005.

He lived all his life and still live in Montreal area.

Could this proposal of an ADQ-CAQ merger help the ADQ in the by-election?

ADQ got less than 5% in 2008. Normandeau won 64-30, and that figure should be the benchmark. If the PQ dips below 25 (this is a seat that except for 1994-8, has been Grit since the '50s) then Marois' troubles grow exponentially.

On another subject, it's a very mild start.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/09/01-4466239-les-elus-veulent-moderniser-la-loi-antigreve.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_politique-quebecoise_559_section_POS1

Charbonneau gets her full powers.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/commission-charbonneau/201111/09/01-4466190-charbonneau-aura-tous-les-pouvoirs-prevus-par-la-loi.php

Done in a bit of a rush, so there could be a few errors, but I think these are the results of the last election:

2008 Quebec Election Results Map

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Of course, there's a bigger version in the gallery.

Edit: I've added some extra detail in the Eastern part of the Southern Quebec Inset, so it now stretches the width of the page. Doesn't add any extra ridings or anything, it's purely for the aesthetics.

Heh. Are you familiar with the Quebec-Labrador boundary dispute?

I read up on it a little while working on the map. Apparently it was "settled" during the 1920s(?), prior to Newfoundland & Labrador joining Canada, so was therefore a boundary dispute between Canada and N&L and was taken to the Privy Council in London for a decision, since both were part of the Commonwealth (I think both were classed "Dominions" - don't know if that word is still in use - N&L was certianly one, not sure about Canada).

The dispute revolved around the definition of "The Coasts of Labrador" - apparently Newfoundland in an earlier agreement/declaration was given "The Coasts of Labrador" and the debate was something to do with whether they were entitled to land 1 mile from the ocean, or 1 mile in altitude? Something like that, although 1 mile in altitude is pretty high, so I could be wrong... Quebec never accepted the ruling by the Privy Council.

Anyway, the solid line is the boundary as shown on the redistribution maps put out by Commission de la representation electorale du Quebec (including the recent ones), and the dotted line is the boundary recognised by the Canadian Government, etc. I gave a bit of thought as to how to proceed with the map, given the disputed boundary, and thought that using solid and dashed lines was probably the best way of showing the riding.

Actually, here's Wikipedia's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labrador#Boundary_dispute) write-up on the dispute.

AFAIK not a single person lives there. I'm tempted to, if I win the lotto, move there just so I can vote in both Quebec and NL elections.

In case people are interested (as always, bigger versions in the gallery):

2008 Quebec Election Results Map - Liberal Vote

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2008 Quebec Election Results Map - PQ Vote

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2008 Quebec Election Results Map - ADQ Vote

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Smid, can we see a QS vote map... the most recent Polls had them about 3-4times higher then in 2008 (3%, now roughly 9-12%) Teddy has them winning 4 seats.

Teddy, can you do a NPDQ map? i would be really interested to see where they pick up on a provincial level.

Note that there are only a half-dozen ridings in which QS received >10% of the vote:

Outremont (11.43%)
Hochelaga - Maisonneuve (12.93%)
Laurier - Dorion (13.01%)
Sainte-Marie - Saint-Jacques (15.4%)
Gouin (31.85%)
Mercier (37.89%)

Additionally, there were three ridings in which QS did not field a candidate - Abitibi-Ouest, Gatineau and Notre-Dame-de-Grace.

2008 Quebec Election Results Map - QS Vote

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Bigger version, of course, is in the gallery.

Uh, there was no QS candidate in Gatineau.

Lapointe (Mme Parizeau for non-Quebecers) joins the Option Nationale splinter group. Someone (IIRC it was Hebert) wrote recently that in retrospect, the PQ crisis dates to 2007 when QS was formed. Two splinter groups: one that thinks the PQ is insufficiently leftist, another which thinks they're insufficiently separatist. For the first time since the 1960s, their movement is Balkanized.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/17/01-4468945-lisette-lapointe-adhere-a-option-nationale.php

You are entirely correct. I have a glitch somewhere in my spreadsheet. I'm going to have to look into it closely - and it probably affects some of those other ridings and party support maps, too.

Edit: Found the problem - hadn't left the Gatineau cell blank (as Hashemite rightly points out) and then everything else below there (in the NDP column) has bumped up a row, which explains why Gouin is so low, compared to other seats adjoining it. It shouldn't take too long to fix the spreadsheet, but it will take a while to fix the maps. My apologies, everyone.

Edit 2: Not as bad as I thought, looks like it's only affected three cells or so, just down to Groulx, where QS actually did run a candidate.

Gouin was one of their two targets. Françoise David, one of their co-leaders stood there (and will again stood there next election).

No candidate in NdG because it was the best result of the Green Party in 2007.

All fixed and updated. I think it should all be correct now. Let me know if you spot any more mistakes, but I think it's now right.

From those maps, their vote look very urban.

It even highlight where cities are in rural areas.

Thanks for the update; if you know of any other such updates, keep us informed!

Last week, a Segma/Le Soleil poll of the by-election in Bonaventure was published (401 persons, ±4,9%).

Damien Arsenault (PLQ): 52%
Sylvain Roy (PQ): 36%
Patricia Chartier (QS): 6%
George Painchaud (ADQ): 5%

Note than there is also a Green running and than people have until Saturday to fill a candidature form.

The CAQ has a commanding lead in the polls, although surely they'll fall quite a bit, right?

Anything can happen over the next year. The parallel for your scenario would be the rise and fall of the ADQ in 2007-8. Also rumours of another caucus revolt were shot down by Marois today.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/336361/parti-quebecois-pauline-marois-doit-encore-reaffirmer-la-loyaute-de-son-caucus

To distract, Marois is now pushing for an all-party consensus to hand over Quebec's federal UI payments to provincial coffers.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/18/01-4469460-marois-veut-une-coalition-pour-le-rapatriement-de-lassurance-emploi.php

New poll confirms what I suspected: change for change's sake is still in the air. Here's the full poll.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/336595/sondage-leger-marketing-le-devoir-legault-sur-les-traces-du-npd

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage21nov.pdf

Bonaventure won't boost either Charest or Marois.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/will-by-election-boost-charest-before-battle-with-legault-begins-in-earnest/article2243371/

Too good to be true: PQ is actually launching that pro-Marois ad campaign. Good luck at humanizing la reine d'Ile Bizard.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/336606/le-pq-lance-sa-campagne-de-publicite

Key takeaways from that poll.

General: CAQ 35, PLQ 22, PQ 21, ADQ/QS 8.

Francophones: 40/24/14, with the PLQ in last. Those are wipeout numbers.

Anglo/Allos: PLQ 57, CAQ 12, PV 9, ADQ 8. If they merge, then some West Island Pelquistes might be in for a long night.

Montreal: 34/22/21, same order as the Francophone numbers.

Quebec City: 29/24/22.

ROQ: 36/22/19.

Reason why most non-Caquistes don't trust them: vague platitudes as their platform. Legault also leads PMP. PQ leads on defending Quebec's interests and language, otherwise CAQ leads all issue-trust indicators.

Pauline is going insane.

She expelled an MNA on Tuesday for perhaps being a mole.
She expelled another MNA on Thursday for thinking to join another party.

A mole? What? As for the other guy, she should've done a de facto rather than de jure expulstion: i.e. "you have x days to decide your political affilation (and barred from caucus meetings till then), if you want to stay stay, otherwise leave." But yeah, I'm seeing parallels to Carole James already. Can you get a link to the "mole" guy? Can't find it on either La Presse or Le Devoir.
 

CAQ link.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/336840/courtise-par-la-caq-daniel-ratthe-est-expulse-du-caucus-pequiste

Remarkable. A mole? Really? Is the Tinker Tailor film out in Canada yet?

Which is the second MNA?

Her most recent victims are Guy Leclair (le mole) MNA for Beauharnois and Daniel Ratthe MNA for Blainville... She is running out of MNA's to screw with :P

Crazy. I heard of the first but not the second. Perhaps I should create a graphic so we can keep track of the current standings in the house. At this rate it'll be PLQ-65 PQ-1 IND-60

Close :P
from my wiki math its: PLQ 64; PQ 44; ADQ 4; QS 1; ON (Option Nationale) 2; IND 9... 1 vacant (looks like a PLQ victory though)

http://www.cjad.com/CJADLocalNews/entry.aspx?BlogEntryID=10317692 (http://www.cjad.com/CJADLocalNews/entry.aspx?BlogEntryID=10317692)

LOL, Parti Quebecois is a joke! :D

He pled to a criminal charge, that seems like a legit reason for parliamentary sanctions.

AND, the election's gonna be some horrific FPTP nightmare, on top of all this.

According to one projection, you could get over 100 CAQ, 15 Liberals, 6 PQ, 4 ADQ, and Khadir as the sole Indie. Haven't seen a National Assembly like that since the Bourasslide of '73.

Khadir isn't and indie, hes with QS... and i'd expect them, with the downfall of the PQ to pick up at least 2 more (Gouin and Sainte-Marie - Saint-Jacques are top) but your point is true... you only have to look at May's federals to see quebecers like their victories big or barely :P

Any new resignations/kickouts from the PQ yet? its only 10am but you never know.

PS I'll check back in at 11

Strange battle in Bonaventure.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/26/01-4471888-letrange-bataille-de-bonaventure.php

[/quote]AND the Germans.

Well, kaka means poop, is that what you're trying to get at? Interestingly, I think the term is used more in Quebec.

Kack is British English slang (although, from my understanding, quite obscure) for poo, yeah.

It's a Romance term, I thought. It's certainly common in both Spanish and Portuguese; Brazilians were quite aware of what it went to have a player named Kaká on their national team.

More PQ circular firing squads.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201111/28/01-4472425-pq-le-torchon-brule-entre-deux-presidents-regionaux.php

If the election were today: 88 CAQ, 27 PLQ, 8 PQ, 2 QS.

Why non-Francophones (IMO) won't go CAQ.

A) Continued infatuation with the Liberal brand name, both PLC and PLQ.

B) Domination of soft-progressivist (generic Liberal) ideology.

C) Dislike of school board abolition, as "only democratic institution controlled by Anglos" will disappear.

D) Among the older generation, a visceral fear/loathing of anything less than full-blown Trudeauvianism on the national issue. (Yes, I know the PLQ in no way meets that criteria- but still- only party that even comes close)

E) Dislike of conservatism (or anything smacking of it) generally.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/can-quebecs-new-party-win-over-non-francophones/article2251949/

Anyone want a copy of my Quebec ElectoMatic?

If you'll be so kind, Sir Topham.

Indeed! I have a copy of your pre-2011 national one and it really is a work of art!

e-mail me for a copy. thenewteddy then all that junk about being at hotmail dot com and what

I thought Anglos were generally more Conservative than the Francophone community.  After all many are fairly wealthy and while many went Liberal, they struck me as more your 905 type Liberals otherwise fiscally conservative and socially progressive as opposed to downtown Toronto types, left of centre favour activist government.

Most Tory support is in ROQ- that is, among Francophones. We did horribly on Montreal Island, excepting Lac St. Louis (star candidate) and Mount Royal (Israel). Did you read B)? When the non-Francophones in my social circle switched from the Grits, they went straight to the Dippers for ideological reasons. Besides, we humor soft nationalism and the Grits don't.

Daycare scandal: 25% of the places approved by the then-minister, Michelle Courchesne (now at Education) were defective and she overruled her officials' warnings. Auditor-General now blowing the whistle on it.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/337339/garderies-la-selection-liberale-decriee

PQ backbencher predicts Charest victory and says there's a "Shy Sexism Factor" in his own riding.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/01/01-4473618-elections-le-pequiste-pinard-predit-une-victoire-de-charest.php

WHAT??? AGAIN a new quebequian party ?


it's a real nightmare.


hope than ON and PI will crush ADQ, PQ & CAQ

And the By-election might as well be over... if you read the Gazette:
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Liberal+candidate+likely+winner+Monday+election+Bonaventure/5785230/story.html

The Greens are really trying to mess around in everyones business ain't they :P

Ugh, the Regressists are polling 3rd there.

We always knew that Arsenault (now there's a necromanced dynasty if I've ever seen one :)) would win. If the PQ can up their vote share by 7-8% then that takes some pressure off Marois.

I'm rather impressed that QS has managed 9%, if in a rural Liberal riding they can pull 3 times what they did last time, you will see more QS members in L'Assemblee Nationale
Pour Quoi Regressist?

Khadir will probably get some company in the next Assembly IMO, but only in Montreal ridings like Gouin. QS is a splinter group for far-left, pur et durs Peqs. So yeah, they're regressive.

I agree there, they wont win outside Gouin and perhaps SMSJ...Rosemont should be targetted since Beaudoin is an indie, and if she runs splits that Peqs vote. Hocehlaga-Maisonneuave should be a target since its hard french and relatively poor but looks like an incumbent. Odd, no peqs were evern part of the formation of QS... and their "sovereignty" is a means-to-an-end, rather then an ends-as-a-means approach... am i reading that wrong? From here, QS is the only progressive voice in quebec these days

QS isn't progressive.
With their proposals, they would kill some industries, like mining and tourism.
Their economical policies are flirting with communism and they put environment above all, even workers.

Now if only these people were a party, I'd vote for them. The PLQ, PQ and CAQ wants to tinker with the obsolete Orange Model, they (and the ADQ) want to jettison it and replace it with a Blue Model.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/11/30/barbara-kay-taking-down-quebecs-gouvernemaman/

It should be noted that the Bonaventure portion of the federal riding its in was the most pro NDP part.

that IS left-wing and progressive.

So-called progressive, because that is regressist.

My original post was longer but it was deleted...

Here is my by-election preview: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/12/bonaventure-provincial-by-election.html

Bump. Reminder that the Bonaventure polls close in a few hours. French media will have coverage.

Red meat for the Peq base.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/337667/defense-du-francais-le-pq-veut-forcer-la-main-au-gouvernement-charest

3 polls in

Arsenault, Damien (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   36   54,55 %   15
Roy, Sylvain (P.Q.)   21   31,82 %   
Chartier, Patricia (Q.S.)   3   4,55 %   
Painchaud, Georges (A.D.Q.)   3   4,55 %   
Cloutier, Jean (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   2   3,03 %   
Zibeau, Martin (IND)   1   1,52 %   

live results from?

http://monvote.qc.ca/partielles/en/resultatsPreliminaires.asp

Thanks

From the wild swings, it seems than the riding is quite polarized.

If the Peqs underperform from 2008, we'll see another wave of anti-Marois sentiment within caucus. One of those defectors said 10 were reportedly waiting to jump ship, waiting only on tonight's results (which I'll believe when I see, and in any case it won't save them from the Purple Crush).

4-5 point improvement over '08. Status quo within the PQ caucus for now.

what were the 08 results?

64-29 in 2008, and that was the PQ's high tide of the decade province-wide. Right now it's 50-37, which helps Marois in the short-medium term if these results hold.

BONAVENTURE

Last update: 21:45:32
Number of polling stations:  126 / 126
 
Candidates and
political affiliation   Valid votes   Percentage of valid ballots (%)[2]   Majority
Arsenault, Damien (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   7 887   49,46 %   1 952
Roy, Sylvain (P.Q.)   5 935   37,22 %   
Chartier, Patricia (Q.S.)   1 422   8,92 %   
Painchaud, Georges (A.D.Q.)   365   2,29 %   
Cloutier, Jean (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   205   1,29 %   
Zibeau, Martin (IND)   131   0,82 %   
 
Valid ballots:   15 945   99,04 %   
Rejected ballots:   154   0,96 %   
Total voter turnout:   16 099       
Registered electors:   29 510       
Voter turnout:   54,55 %   

8 pt improvement for the PQ over '08, PLQ under 50. So she'll be spinning a moral victory for the next while.

I suppose QS might, too, for quadrupling the ADQ.

I think here it all depends on how you define progressive then... QS dosen't support the CURRENT mining process... and place the environment on the same level as growth and jobs... and if some corporations wont step up and government has to do it, so be it. To me thats progressive to put People and our quality of life and environment first above corporate greed.

From their platform:
"Current economic policies constitute a threat to the survival of ecosystems.
Québec solidaire proposes a new form of development, based on reformed
definitions of growth, production and consumption. This form of development
subordinates the economy to social justice and to a respect of our environ-
ment."

Anywho... i think that poll was dead on for the QS, which is a victory for them as their vote trippled. The PQ and PLQ are happy, PLQ won, and PQ performed better at the expense of the ADQ. BUT what if CAQ had run a candidate?

I live in a mining area and what they propose is unworkable.

Well, the whole idea of "reformed definitions of growth, production and consumption" is unworkable, since Quebec isn't isolated from the rest of the Canada/world.

Interesting, how so? unworkable that is? i'm curious as an urban guy and not from a mining area.

I think trying to develop an internal economy that is self-suffcient can only help when, as now, times get tough. But its hard for any region in the world to do that... but "don't let them tell you it can't be done" LOL

I agree, but mining can't be self-sufficient. We don't extract all those minerals for our own use.
And giving the powers to regulate mines to cities and counties is a very bad idea. They don't have the expertise to deal with that.

And their other idea is lowering grants and raising money given to government. They will just go elsewhere. Sure, that will be great for environment...
Government should increase imputability and transparence and force consultations of the local population and raise a little bit the "redevances", but, PQ proposal is exagerated and would only depress the industry and the economy.

One sentence is telling on their website. It says it wants to end "mining boom" for a slower mining development.
It is ridiculous. It would be like saying to a company "Sorry, too many plants opened this year, come back next year".

Good news for the PQ and QS, mediocre news for the Liberals and more bad news for the ADQ.

Marois: I'm unafraid of criticism at the upcoming National Council meeting.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/337896/conseil-national-du-parti-quebecois-marois-ne-craint-pas-les-debats-sur-son-leadership

sh**t like this is why the PLQ needs at least two terms in opposition.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/337881/turcot-sera-construit-dans-le-meme-mode-que-le-pont-champlain-il-y-a-50-ans

Liberals are still going on the economy and slamming Legault as a crypto-separatist.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/quebec/charest-to-seek-fourth-term/article2266824/

Somebody in my family says that her home province is stupid, she'll be proved correct if they reelect the Mafia King St. John the Baptist.

Is the Platitude King who destroyed our K-11 system any better? I think not.

I never insinuated or meant that, they all suck, but Johnny is probably the worst.

I concur.

Charest's running on a strategy that doesn't work anymore (and is borrowed from the Pelciquistes) and a federally negotiated trade deal which will not be signed before the election. Plus his own chief ripoff of Dief's Vision which no one gives a hoot about outside Pelquiste circles.

ADQ-CAQ merger could be announced this week.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/11/01-4476829-la-fusion-entre-la-caq-et-ladq-est-pratiquement-conclue.php

Khadir wants a QS caucus of 5.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/11/01-4476811-khadir-veut-faire-elire-cinq-deputes-aux-prochaines-elections.php

Curzi moving closer to Option Nationale.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/338120/pierre-curzi-se-rapproche-d-option-nationale

Wonderful, Wonderful. Let me know of any changes in the assembly.

ADQ-CAQ... are one... ummm more like CAQ just ate up what was left of the ADQ
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Legault+absorbs+party/5852314/story.html

QS wknd convention write up:
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Qu%c3%a9bec+solidaire+wants+language/5842616/story.html

Synopsis of some policy into the next election:
- Creating a State bank for Quebec
- Creating a universal retirement plan and minimum income guarantee for anyone over age 18.
- No support for expanding bill 101 in CEGEPs; But also want to push learning of english in french schools
- Supported a proposal against making the knowledge of English a hiring requirement unless it is shown to be indispensable for a position.

Merger details: ADQ becomes the founding CAQ caucus with Deltell as parliamentary leader. PQ defectors will be welcomed but not poached.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/338293/fusion-consommee-pour-la-caq-et-l-adq

Charest: ADQ is "marrying a poll."

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/338283/l-adq-fusionne-avec-un-sondage

Also, read in the Gazette today that Legault is adamantly opposed to loosening the workplace provisions in Loi 101. No surprise there, and equally unsurprising that the Anglo business leaders are sticking with the Grits.

Why he would commit suicide with Franco voters?

He probably knows it's good economics but bad politics.

But he doesn't care. Legault is a empty guy running on an empty program.
Only vague ideas, nothing concrete.

Voters don't seem to care either. They wanted old-new in May and they want old-new now. It's a lamentable state of affairs, but the other options aren't much better. Personally I've already resolved to just stay home on E-Day- barring an unexpected CAQ breakthrough with Anglos my riding will still be Liberal (Weil's my MNA) regardless.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/14/01-4477797-il-ne-reste-que-2521-membres-a-ladq.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS4 (http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/14/01-4477797-il-ne-reste-que-2521-membres-a-ladq.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS4)

So, summary.

There is 2521 members left in ADQ.
Only those will be able to vote in the postal vote about merger (except those whose membership elasped in the 90 last days, which is around 200 persons).

People will receive ballots between Januany 2 and 6 and must return them before January 17.
Results will be announced in a press conference on January 22.

Expect the results will be overwhelmingly pro-merger. I mean really, what other choice is there? As for the election date, no idea. Charest could wait until 2013, but he adhered to the 4 +/- 1 month rule even in '07 when his poll numbers were crappy. As I said earlier, depends if he wants to preempt Charbonneau or avoid the appearance of panic by waiting another full year. It won't be January 2013 for obvious reasons.

Another resignation.

David Whissell, MNA for Argenteuil since 1998, resigned today, officially to do other things. Opposition parties are saying than it is probably to escape the ethics rules beginning on January 1st. He is an owner of a big paving company. He prefered resigning as Labour Minister than to sell it, a few years ago.

Last time it didn't elected a Liberal was 1962. Another riding with a significant Anglophone minority. It is also the riding of the Green leader.

Results since Whissell is elected (according to the apparently dead quebecpolitique website):

June 1998 by-election
Liberals: 57%
PQ: 38%
ADQ: 5%

November 1998
Liberals: 42%
PQ: 42%
ADQ: 13%
Others: Bloc Pot (marijuana) 1.2%, Ind 0.7%, Natural Law 0.3%, PDS (the remainers of the NDP-Quebec) 0.3%
Finally, Whissell is relected by 148 votes.

April 2003
Liberals: 53%
PQ: 25%
ADQ: 18%
Greens: 2.1%
Bloc Pot: 1.2% (yes, again)

March 2007
Liberals: 38%
ADQ: 30%
PQ: 26%
Greens: 4.7%
QS: 2.3%

December 2008
Liberals: 50%
PQ: 33%
ADQ: 11%
Greens: 3.5%
QS: 2.1%

A map is in the works, before someone asks.

We know the PQ has internal problems when they return to the language well.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/15/01-4478259-pauline-marois-veut-reecrire-la-loi-101.php

CROP: CAQ would win 100 seats and 39% were an election held today.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/15/01-4478363-sondage-une-centaine-de-sieges-pour-la-caq.php

CAQ will contest Argenteuil.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/16/01-4478667-la-caq-veut-detroner-le-plq-dans-argenteuil.php

Here is a map!
Not Argenteuil, but the precinct results of Bonaventure!

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So, what to say?

QS got very good results in Maria, above 20% in some precincts, even tying the Liberals for second in one precinct.

The grey precinct is a PQ-Lib tie.

Wow, thanks Max. Something to post over Christmas.

There are also 2 by-elections coming up in BC.

Here is Argenteuil.

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Diverse and complicated riding.

Many Anglos rural small villages, even if some are less and less Anglo (Gore Township, Wentworth-Nord), in the lower Rouge Valley and along Ottawa River.

Some villages which isn't really in Argenteuil area, which are more in the Laurentians, with the Highway 15 as the big axis and are more French (Saint-Adolphe-d'Howard, Montcalm), including a very rich Liberal ski and spa resort, despite being Francophone (Morin Heights).

A regional center (Lachute) which is more and more exurban.

Mille-Isles and Saint-Colomban, which are very very near of the city of Saint-Jérome which has a commuter rail (train de banlieue) leading directly in Montreal downtown. So, Saint-Colomban, formely a rural village, is now a boring exurb.
Talking of Saint-Colomban, the ADQ was second in half the precincts of the "parish" (which is a legal status for little villages). Liberals being third, in those, with pretty awful result in some precincts (the worst by 13%).

Grey precincts are Lib-PQ ties.

Oh, I spotted a typo in my last post.
I wanted to write than Saint-Colomban is a booming exurb, which is quickly expanding.

I suppose than this typo is telling much about my opinion about suburbs/exurbs...

Western Quebec sure has some interesting ridings. Merci, Max!

Well, yes. Results are boring, but the area is interesting, being at the border between Montreal suburbs, the Laurentides and the Anglo Western Quebec.

That riding would be to PQ on the pre-2003 borders, I think. (They removed Mirabel from Argenteuil then, to make a new riding based on Mirabel. Said riding voted PQ in 2003, ADQ in 2007 and PQ in 2008.)

All Charest's best ministers are scrambling for the nearest exit. Rats, sinking ship, etc.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/338713/vague-de-departs-en-vue-au-plq

Agreed 1000%. This is why I'm not voting: no political party which represents my views.

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/Quebec+right+falls+silent/5880543/story.html

Even though no party matches my views either in Quebec, I would still vote if I lived there. (living in Quebec is always an option, as rent tends to be cheaper, but part of me is uncomfortable with the idea)

Also, talk about ironic considering how much choice there is...

Choice between three parties of the centre-left and one of the far left? (QS) What choice is that? Unless you're explicitly separatist like the PQ/QS I don't care about the nationalism so long as they're fiscally Blue . My dream is for a new ADQ to form with a good leader and team sometime in the next decade or so. A rightist Levesque, essentially.

What about a small party? There is Conservative Party and a Christian Party. Maybe you could run as a candidate.

Calling the Liberals center-left seems wrong to me; it implies that they stand for something.

They stand for something.
Liberal donators.

They're more of a centre-right party. But heaven forbid a Tory vote for a party called the Liberals.  But then again, I don't blame anyone for not doing so.

First off, I'm not voting for crooks. Second, THEY ARE ALL OPERATING WITHIN THE ORANGE MODEL. You want my vote, you have to promise to begin its rollback and eventual replacement with a Blue Model.

Sorry if I sound pissed, but my refusal to vote Liberal has nothing to do with the party label. Read that NP article- the author puts it a lot better than I can.

Ridiculous.

Liberals are destroying our system since they are there.
Through that slowed down since Couillard left.

Moving on, 4 MNAs (Caire, Picard, Charette, Rathee) have joined the CAQ. So now their caucus numbers 8.

I think that goes without saying, my comment was more tongue in cheek.

Although to suggest they are operating within the "orange model" is ridiculous. That is if you are suggesting they are a social democratic party. They are not. Jean Charest is every bit a Red Tory, and you should know that.

Now if you want to talk about Red Tories and social democracy, I know someone who claims Danny Williams is a social democrat. But that's a different story.

I'm not saying they're social democrats. I'm saying they're of the containment rather than the rollback school.

CAQ is so hard to pin down that way
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Legault+absorbs+party/5852314/story.html

They even called themselves the "third way"... ok, but RogueBeaver has a point, Legault still favours the current more social democratic system in place... while the ADQ didn't but, when the ship is sinking any life raft will due i suppose.

I think Quebecers are parking votes until they the election, then we get to see what CAQ is really made of. Cause its coming across as a Centre-Right rival to the PLQ and PQ... so that makes this QS supporter happy :)  I'd vote for them... the indepedence thing aside, their overall policies trump that one for me.

This is still not appearing on Wikipedia? Do you have a link that Wikipedia will accept that proves this; if so, I will add it myself.

cbc  news story?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/12/19/mtl-legault-caq-four-mnas.html

Wikipedia has indeed been updated
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/39th_National_Assembly_of_Quebec
Remember that the ADQ still has to vote on merger, which is why I highly doubted the ADQ members, who are still ADQ members as the ADQ still exists, were also somehow simultaneously CAQ members.

I wonder who is leading this temporary CAQ caucus, now that is something I find rather interesting, but I presume the legislature is out of session and wont be back until after the merger, so, the CAQ may be doing the smart thing, and naming nobody.

CAQ doesn't have a caucus, since it didn't won 20% of votes last election, neither elected 12 MNAs, neither had an exception from the Speaker.

Aye, and probably won't ask for one until the merger is complete - and likely at that time the speaker will say yes because saying no would be an embarrassment to the PLQ and PQ.

*Facepalm*

http://www.montrealgazette.com/life/gets+assist+from+Habs/5884884/story.html

That traitor... he used to play for the Senators (our first captain, no less!)

This was being talked about on SportsCenter yesterday. I can imagine it must have been discussed at length on SportsCentre.

The PQ does this sort of anglo-bashing as red meat for their base. Usually Curzi is the one who does it, never Marois.

I did read about it in our right wing rag of a newspaper my parents still get (the Ottawa Sun). But it was in the sports section, and I think generally that section tends to be apolitical.

It is big in the news here (not just sports news).

I think it is silly and don't give a damn, but it makes me loathe the nationalists.

For the X: SportsCenter is the ESPN version and SportsCentre is the TSN version?

My father watched this hockey news roundup, the same sh*t every 15 mins over and over. One of their top stories that made the roundup was the english coach thingy.

Indeed.

I do think that the Habs should have a French-speaking coach, because I like when sports teams stand for something. As can be seen from their name, the Canadiens were founded as the club for the ethnically Canadian population of Montreal. English Montrealers had their own club, the Maroons.

The history of the Canadiens is wrapped in politics. Richard riots anyone?

Hopefully this isn't a prelude to refighting the '07 election.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/20/01-4479611-oui-au-hijab-chez-les-agentes-correctionnelles.php


Charbonneau's mandate too broad?

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/338876/enquete-publique-sur-la-construction-un-mandat-trop-large

Hopefully we won't see more linguistic debates in the New Year.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201112/24/01-4480828-debat-linguistique-les-quebecois-se-reveillent-dit-louis-plamondon.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_politique-quebecoise_559_section_POS1

Maybe, maybe not.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/339081/quebec-vers-la-fin-d-un-cycle-politique

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1110577--cat-becomes-member-of-coalition-avenir-quebec?bn=1

This implies the CAQ has 5K or perhaps 6K members

Quebecers are as enamoured of provincial party membership as they are of federal membership, which is to say not very much.

Jennings said no last time this was mentioned, doubt she'll change her mind. This is my riding both provincially and federally, and she's the only one with a chance at unseating Weil.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/eyeing-anglo-coup-quebecs-new-party-courts-former-liberal-mp/article2292663/

Excellent choice, but 'tis still a middle finger to Charest.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/339656/l-ex-ministre-bellemare-serait-pressenti-comme-senateur

Looks like Jennings is seriously considering the offer.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/05/01-4483142-la-caq-courtise-marlene-jennings.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_politique-quebecoise_559_section_POS4

Another Peq defector to CAQ: Francois Robello of La Prairie.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/legaults-caq-claims-another-parti-qubcois-defector/article2296694/

Direct or Indirect!!!?? this is important!!!


Edit - Direct!! oooo
 

Mostly "a tragic necessity" if you read the best online barometer of Peq opinion: Le Devoir's comments section. Plus this article has his open letter. In a sentence: "I'm an etapiste on sovereignty, I like Legault's technocratic approach, and I hate that a Liberal government cowers before Ottawa."

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/339875/francois-rebello-passe-a-la-caq

PLQ is now at DefCon 3. One of two things: a false spike to throw the opposition off guard. Or, my suspicion that Charest wants the election out of the way before Charbonneau is correct.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/13/01-4485815-les-liberaux-en-mode-electoral.php

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OK, I admit I ROFLed there.

On another note, a 3-way race is shaping up. Maybe Teddy or Hatman can try a projection for us?

http://www2.canada.com/story.html?id=5998836

Not yet; I'm going to focus on Alberta at the moment. All three upcoming provincial elections are going to be hard to predict because of the emergence of three "new" parties.

I trust Volkov:
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2012/01/quebec-la-post-2011-and-equipe.html

who also has an Alberta projection FTR
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2012/01/alberta-in-2012.html

and not only uses his successful system but mine from my old Riding by Riding website
http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com/2011/05/predicting-unexpected.html
which was the most successful of the last federal election (and the last BC election too)

I am still working on my Quebec Map following the redistribution last year, but this much should suffice for now:

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The large blank area in the top- to middle-right is for Montreal and Quebec City insets. They're partially completed, but I deleted them from the image I uploaded here since it looks pretty messy at the moment. I have a few other things I need to do as a priority at the moment, so it will be a little while until the two city insets are finished, although if an election gets called I'll finish them right away. There's not much left to do on them, but still a little bit. Anyway, the map here, with the Southern Quebec Inset should suffice for any predictions/projections. The detail on Montreal isn't perfect and will be rectified once that inset is complete, but this should do for now.

Edit: Oh, and as usual, the bigger version is in the Gallery.

May I use this as a base for creating my own map?

I am more than happy for you to use any of my base maps. That's why I upload them. I consider it a sincere compliment for someone to use them.

As I told earl: anytime that you can make me a map, and alls I need to do is put the numbers on it, I am happy! :D

I see that he's stolen my idea by using maps. The ironic thing is, that he is using my Wikipedia base maps (that I made) that I have abandoned for my site.  By the way, did he do provincial predictions in the Fall? I want to compare with him, to see if my claim as the best predicting site holds any water.

He's updated your Alberta one, however, to reflect the redistribution (note Fort Mac split into two ridings and the top of Calgary is stepped, rather than flat. Airdrie is also a useful point of reference between the pre-redistribution and post-redistribution maps, and the part of it that's been excised and added to Foothills, to create that inverted U-shaped riding around the Eastern, Northern and Western sides of Calgary). Anyway, I find that those are the most immediately obvious changes following the redistribution, which are easiest to spot when trying to identify whether the map is recent or dated.

He still seems to be using the old Quebec map, however (obvious points of difference between pre- and post-redistribution, I find, are in the South-Eastern border where Quebec borders Maine. Megantic doesn't reach the East-West US-Canadian border now, whereas the old Megantic-Compton did, Shefford was elongated/rectangular, whereas the new Granby is more square-ish... well, not perfectly, but you get the idea, St Francois is no longer a thing North-South oriented riding, but now an odd-shaped one with a nobbly bit on top and occupies the entire Eastern end of the East-West border with the US, the somewhat T-Shaped (or sideways V-Shaped?) Arthabaska is bigger, and the small angled L-shaped Drummond is gone, split between other ridings). Anyway, those are again the ridings that I think are most obvious in demonstrating the change between pre- and post-redistribution. The Southern ridings below Montreal have also changed, and you could also try counting the number of ridings on Laval, but I think the most obvious difference is Shefford/Granby and whether St Francois or Megantic occupies the end of the East-West US-Canada border.

Here is the old map again, as a point of reference:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2482_14_11_11_5_40_37.png (not posting it as an image, just as a link, since it would otherwise clutter up the thread).

The old and new Alberta maps are after one another in that thread, so I won't post those comparisons here.

Edit: Oh, and in addition to the top of Calgary being stepped, look also for the odd-shaped sprout off Calgary Northwest, heading up to encompass Bear Paw. The old Calgary boundaries were quite smooth, like a rectangle with a rectangular chunk cut out of it in the western side, or a bit like a very digital "g" whereas the new boundaries of the City of Calgary are a bit harder to describe.

Just to note in case anyone has wandered into the thread, Earl's venom towards Volkov is on the grounds that he is a member of the Liberal Party.

And FTR; his Ontario projection
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2011/10/quick-ontario-election-post-mortem.html
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-2011-full-predictions.html
and mine
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2011/10/teddys-election-projection-for-ontario.html

Excellent. I still did far better than him. I should've known; partisan Liberals really overemphasized how well their party was going to fair.

He's partisan?

More debates on sovereignty.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340361/souverainete-debats-houleux-en-vue-sur-les-alliances

Beaudoin's crocodile tears.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340290/la-derive-du-pq-attriste-aussi-louise-beaudoin

Yeah, I predicted a PC minority until like the last 24 hours. I really overestimated our strength.

About the earlier poll (CAQ 33, Libs 27, PQ 25), I saw crosstables in a newspapers.

CAQ has a ample lead in Quebec with PQ under 20, Montreal is tight with Libs first, CAQ second and PQ third and rest of Quebec has CAQ leading PQ by 2, with Libs way behind.

2007 all over again?

Looks like so.

Taking the 2007 map is probably a good start for predictions.

You're... different....; you're like me and down play your party's strengths.


Sarcasm?

http://www.cbc.ca/m/touch/politics/story/2012/01/18/quebec-provinical-conservative-party.html

New Party!

No, not the other new party... or the other other new party..... a new new party!!


My prediction for the next election, after the ADQ rejects the merger, and vote splitting allows the greens to win seats is:

PLQ 19
PQ 18
ADQ 17
QS 16
CAQ 15
CON 14
ON 13
GRN 12
Plus a random Independent, who will end up becoming Premier in a coalition of the QS, PQ, PLQ, and CON.

I just read that articule! ok Quebec is just becoming rediculous... i'm, going to move in with my sister and start my own party now :P

... i still think there is some, some serious chatter from some in the NDP about setting up a NPDQ... which would mean 9 parties... Quebec really is looking like europe now, very dutch looking.
I know this scenario seems rediculous; no party with more than 20seats, and most not won by more than 20% either... but could spell the end to FPTP in Quebec.
... i would be very excited to see QS and the Greens with over 10 seats :P

If the NDP is getting a provincial party too, there might be movements to a non-partisan party of some sort, and given this, we could well see the equality party try to make a comeback. Hell at this rate, I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of movement to regrow the old Social Credit party, and with vote splitting, they could well easily win seats.

Remember too that Quebec is quite Catholic, and there have been movements for a Catholic party in the past. Given the options, I could even see a revival of student politics and a sort of youth or Student party.

PLQ 9
PQ 9
ADQ 9
QS 9
CAQ 9
CON 9
ON 9
GRN 9
NDP 9
NP 9
EQ 9
SC 9
CAT 9
STU 8

I also forsee a tie in Sherbrooke, and thus only Half of Jean Charest would be elected. Which half would be divisive, but I think that somehow they'd come to an agreement.

They won't have enough time to get organized, unlike their BC cousins. In the short run, total clusterfark. Medium-term you probably see more PQ than Liberal wins because of vote-splitting.

One thing's for certain: if Legault leaves after one term, then the CAQ will merge with the PCQ. A unified right-wing party would look like the ADQ (or Daniel Johnson's Unionists): moderately nationalist on The Issue and with very few non-Francophone supporters.

Hum.

So the CAQADQPCQ would be so close the PLQ that they could merge into the CAQADQPCQPLQ which could re-arrange the letter's in it's name to be the CACAPPDLQQQQ, or poo-kew for short.

PLQ has always been centre-to-centre-left except for Charest's first year. Plus the intraparty nationalist/federalist balance would be tilted overwhelmingly in the nationalists' favour.

Well, no.

PLQ was right-wing during the first year of Charest, a puppet of their funders (so more or less right-wing, as it is favoring rich people over poor people) for the other years.

According to news, Duceppe is openly interested to PQ leadership, now.

Anyway, enough jokes from me.

I think Duceppe could do very well if he gets the PQ leadership.

He won't pull the trigger himself, still too gun-shy after what happened 5 years ago. But if he did, then the PQ has at least a 50-50 shot of winning.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/17/01-4486864-leadership-du-pq-duceppe-teste-ses-appuis.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_politique-quebecoise_559_section_POS1

There was a PCQ in the 1980s which, if I recall, had a few 'big names' but still did awfully. Besides, none of the fools in this new PCQ thingee are actually that well-known or relevant. Maybe if you could convince The Retard from Beauce to jump in, but short of something like that the PCQ won't go anywhere.

Agreed with Hashemite on the PCQ.

Marois wants a tactical alliance with QS. Embarrassing when you make overtures to splinter groups.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340510/marois-vise-une-grande-coalition-souverainiste

The Beauce area seems ripe for some sort of right wing party. I suppose CAQ will win there though, and a Quebec Conservative party wouldn't appeal to them in the same way?

ROQ generally is ripe for the federal Tories, just as it was for Unionists in the old days. PCQ could do well in the Beauce, but only as a unified right-wing party headed by serious people. Which this isn't.

I wouldn't classify the rest of Quebec as politically homogenous. The Chaudiere-Appalaches region is quite Libertarian (strongest in the Beauce). The rest of Quebec is generally left wing, except on certain issues (health care and immigration for example). Of course a Libertarian leaning party such as the ADQ and CAQ would be able to unite these two parts, but the Tories (and the NDP) can only do well in certain parts. Luckily for the NDP, their are more parts that can appeal to them than the Tories. However, if the Tories get a better leader, they can win these NDP areas. But, they don't need to. 

ROQ will be a tossup this time around, that's for sure. Montreal is solidly a duopoly with Pelquistes dominating.

More bad headlines for Marois.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/pq-riding-executives-see-duceppe-as-party-saviour/article2307220/

Weird: the anti-Marois forces are eager to pull the trigger, but many of them don't want a Duceppe coronation.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-au-pq/201201/18/01-4487245-mouvement-concerte-contre-pauline-marois.php

I won't believe that Marois will be deposed till I see it. Especially given how badly the PQ is fractured on this leadership question. (Just read the first article's comments section)

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340567/duceppe-ne-fait-pas-l-unanimite

Also: Bou-Bou's former chief of staff goes Caquiste.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/19/01-4487474-les-liberaux-minimisent-le-passage-de-mario-bertrand-a-la-caq.php

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340518/pas-de-discussions-formelles-avec-le-pq-soutient-francoise-david

I wrote something about the last election in Quebec on my blog. Because it was wrote in french, I use here google traduct for give you the english version. I hope the translation would not being awful.

the failure of left nationalism in Quebec

"We were defeated by money and the ethnic vote" said Jacques Parizeau on the evening of the tragedy (for him) of October 1995, when Quebec try once again to commit suicide.

But those suicides were not urprising. In response to the stifling Catholic conservatism, but timidly Quebecist, of the reign of the National Union of Duplessis, a logic swing of the pendulum, the young nationalism of the 60' has built on the left, time or ,naively, the independence movements were often associated with Marxist guerrillas in Latin America (Guevara, Castro, etc.)..

Of course, this nationalism was a tactic for Marxists, but the moderate left Quebec have believed on it, like René Lévesque. Vision, all Habermasian, of constitutional nationalism, which is the embodiment of purest, most honest, Republican nationalism, absolutely detached from the history, land and people, could only find the PQ impotent, ideologically to reject immigration, the very one that will ensure the defeat of an independent Quebec in 1995, arithmetically speaking.

 

Therefore the failure of the Bloc Québécois in the federal election makes sense. AS voting for the left, Quebecers voted for more frank than the BQ / PQ, namely for Jack Layton's NDP.

What is your blog?

Marois recruits a star candidate.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/19/01-4487532-pauline-marois-recrute-lecologiste-daniel-breton.php

I'M NOT GOING ANYWHERE!!!

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-au-pq/201201/20/01-4487779-pauline-marois-entend-rester-jusquau-bout.php

Next up in the anti-Marois barrage: Landry and the unions. But not even caucus can unseat her against her will- only a membership vote can do that.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340796/duel-decisif-entre-marois-et-duceppe

I agree wholeheartedly with this editorial. Peqs are falling into the Pelciste trap of leadership drama (which is this case is mostly unjustified IMO) being a substitute for resolving longstanding structural issues.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340766/marois-duceppe-tirer-la-ligne

Failed coup?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-au-pq/201201/21/01-4488066-pq-un-putsch-rate.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_les-plus-populaires-title_article_ECRAN1POS3

ADQ formally votes for merger, so CAQ now has a caucus.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340816/les-membres-de-l-adq-enterinent-la-fusion-de-leur-parti-avec-la-caq

Whoo!

Duceppe is now in permanent retirement due to an ethics scandal.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/in-wake-of-probe-report-duceppe-says-hes-finished-with-active-politics/article2310851/

Legault will be running against Scott McKay in L'Assomption- Parizeau's old riding.

National Assembly standings:

PLQ: 64
PQ: 44
CAQ: 9
IND: 4
ON: 2
QS: 1
VAC: 1

Should win it, as the ADQ has held it before.

BTW, I love separatists with very English names. Lol  "Scott McKay"

Why? The PQ has held that riding, which formerly belonged to Parizeau, since 1989. '07 was a fluke. In a tight 2007-style race which we're now seeing it should be rated as Tossup.

On another note: some Peqs are worried about ceding most of north-central Montreal to QS if they somehow negotiate an electoral pact.

CAQ should win most of the 2007 ADQ seats, especially the one where their popular leader is running.

Eh. McKay is a staunch Marois supporter, BTW. Used to lead the provincial Greens, she personally recruited him to run in '08.

I actually think the new PCQ could take votes in the Quebec City area, and could bring the CAQ down "to size" in QC, compared to the ADQ, for which it was their best region. Meanwhile the CAQ would be up (compared to the ADQ) in Montreal, leaving them with a balanced result across the province.

Also, graphic pack! Use for whatever.

()

I find it a bit amusing that each large party has a small party alternative.

For those who don't think the Greens and Liberals are alternatives to one another I say 2 things:
1 - Read the policy book of each federal party
and
2 - Look at the vote patterns for PVQ, they are very anglo, like the PLQ. Where one does well, the other does well.

We'll have to wait for a poll which includes the PCQ. I wouldn't be surprised if Charest won another minority.

New poll: CAQ 31, PLQ 29, PQ 21, QS 11. If anyone wants to plug this into their model...

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/23/01-4488697-sondage-marois-nest-pas-au-bout-de-ses-peines.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS4

What i find hilarious... is the 68% of pequiste think she should stay and 65% of all of Quebecers thinks she should go...

Everyone up but CAQ, is the shine rubbing off? now that they have unelected MNA's people will see what CAQ is all about. That could be good or bad for this new party

Oh, a poll by the Liberal spin newspaper.

The shine is rubbing off. Like the ADQ in 2007, once people get a good look at the old-new shiny... the deluge. Right now my best guess would be a Liberal minority propped up by the CAQ or vice-versa.

CSD: 'Tis consistent with other polls.

()

In that case we have another election within a year due to the instability. All 3 of Marois' potential successors- Gerrard, McKay and Curzi, lose their seats. So she might well stay on as leader despite the worst PQ result since 1970. Should be even more interesting once the PCQ starts to poll.

Great work, Teddy!

Landry snipes at Marois, again.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-au-pq/201201/24/01-4488708-bernard-landry-jette-la-pierre-a-pauline-marois.php

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/debats/opinions/201201/23/01-4488622-cap-sur-lindependance.php

Those results seem very probable, Teddy. At this point, we've got to take account of the new boundaries, which have just gone into effect (as of Saturday the 21st). I wouldn't be surprised if the CAQ won all three new ridings.

Three things.

1. Who is Gerrard? You mean Bernard Drainville?
2. Ugh, both my MNAs would still be Liberals.
3. My home area still would be 2-2 PQ-Lib. I agree with that, considering than ADQ never had good results there

No, Nicolas Gerrard.

2) Weil will still be my MNA unless Jennings is recruited for the CAQ.

Nicolas Girard? The guy who took Boisclair's seat (Gouin)?

Same one. Seeing Beaudoin, Curzi, Tomassi and Lapointe go down would make my election night. Though Tomassi's not likely to be defeated, but one can still hope...

Tomassi is likely to retire, I think.

Double whammy for Duceppe, perhaps more incoming?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201201/24/01-4489087-gilles-duceppe-de-nouveau-eclabousse.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B12_en-manchette_558_section_POS1

A new poll, Léger Marketing-Le Devoir

CAQ: 32%
PLQ: 26%
PQ: 25%
QS: 9%
Greens: 6%

Franco vote: 36 CAQ, 30 PQ, 18 PLQ

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage28janvier.pdf (http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage28janvier.pdf)

CAQ members are split on sovereignty 41-47, leaning against.

Top issues...
PLQ, healthcare and jobs
CAQ, healthcare, jobs, and corruption
PQ, healthcare, and sovereignty
QS, healthcare, and education
sovereigntists, healthcare, jobs, and sovereignty
federalists, healthcare, and jobs.

Oh, and the obligatory seat projection.
C54
L39
P28
S4

Hopefully the letters are obvious, I'd like to keep using them.

PQ executive meeting wraps up well for Marois.


http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/341397/marois-finit-par-dire-oui-au-rip

Leger: CAQ 33, PLQ 27, PQ 25.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/341333/sondage-leger-marketing-le-devoir-the-gazette-une-victoire-morale-pour-pauline-marois

No comment.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/341330/le-spq-libre-se-rallie-inconditionnellement

No. Just no.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/28/01-4490364-les-pequistes-confiants-de-prendre-le-pouvoir.php

Well, they aren't so far of leading in polls.

They just need to slip ahead in Franco vote, and that's it. Only 6% back, which is possible to gain back, considering how volatile is Quebec.

Plus the PCQ will split votes with the CAQ. While I wouldn't be very happy with a PQ victory, (I just figure a provincial NDP government is taking over rather than pantsh**tting about "teh ev0l sepratists"), we badly need a change in government and handing the government over to a bunch of neophytes is definitely not something I'd be happy about either.

Usually lawyers are big PLQ donors, so this should worry the Pelquistes somewhat.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/30/01-4490977-dons-a-la-caq-des-avocats-genereux.php

CAQ is still nonexistent so far as Anglos are concerned.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/03/01-4492406-un-ex-president-dalliance-quebec-appuie-la-caq.php

They need a slogan to sell themselves. How about:

CAQ, man, vote for it. CAQ, man, they'r the shit!

Oh Lordy- QS wants to outflank the Peqs on language.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/04/01-4492649-quebec-solidaire-se-prepare-au-prochain-scrutin.php

Jennings says NON to CAQ run

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Liberal+Jennings+says/6127245/story.html

Yes please.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/09/01-4494152-environnement-la-caq-promet-une-reflexion-daffaires.php

Get a slogan which hasn't been used in every campaign for the past 9 years.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/09/01-4494272-leconomie-et-lemploi-seront-les-enjeux-de-la-campagne-dit-charest.php

Duh. Both are splinter groups in the first place.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201202/08/01-4494017-option-nationale-porte-ouverte-a-une-fusion.php

Keep it classy, Pelquistes.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/342176/des-liberaux-denigrent-l-anglais-de-legault

Jennings: I said all along she wouldn't accept.

Here's the Legault video in question.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c38sYyTNcIc

I see.

CAQ wants to sacrifice long-term to focus on the short-term.

Charest: no election before mid-May. We haven't had a summer election since 1966. Duplessis was famous for always picking a summer date, usually in mid-month/week.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/10/01-4494776-pas-delections-avant-la-mi-mai-promet-charest.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_politique-quebecoise_559_section_POS1

Baloney.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/10/01-4494809-enquete-sur-les-fuites-au-spvm-charest-dit-que-les-medias-nont-rien-a-craindre.php

No one cares.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/342448/d-ici-les-prochaines-elections-jean-charest-met-le-paquet-sur-le-plan-nord

Yet again, Charest insults his electorate's intelligence. At least be up front about one of Quebec politics' biggest and oldest open secrets. Far worse are the Peladeaus, especially now that PK has taken the role of "chief Anglo-baiting RL troll" for himself. Since Charest said "the election won't be called before Apr. 22", he basically confirmed there will be an election this summer...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/charest-denies-wealthy-desmarais-family-has-influenced-government-policy/article2334653/

Come on guys, push this through before the election.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/02/13/graeme-hamilton-plan-for-english-immersion-hits-bumps-in-quebec/

Please. We already don't have enough English teachers to fill the current jobs in primary. English teahcers are often Anglophones with no degree in education or teachers of another course (often music ou phys. ed.) with a basic knowledge of English.

Then you improve teacher training. Both public systems desperately need an overhaul, especially the French one given the disparity in results. Marois and Legault coauthored that "reform" (which I escaped by the skin of my teeth) so IMO neither of them have any credibility whatsoever on education. This is a policy conversation I'd like to see in the election, but instead we'll get mudslinging and vague platitudes. Perhaps the trickiest part is addressing the English-French performance disparity, especially in high schools- because the usual suspects on both sides will be itching to start a language war.

Oh, I'm for improving teacher training, but that won't have an effect before a couple of years. And it doesn't solve the lack of English teachers.

And the reform. What to say on it? Like you, I escaped it by the skin of my teeth. It has some advantages, but thoe are outweighted by its problems.

The main issue, being, as in much cases in society "nivellement par le bas", or, in English "dumbing down".

A very low opinion, for similar reasons to yours: dumbing down and occasionally over-complexifying the simple. Math being perhaps the perfect example.

CAQ denied official party status by the Speaker. IIRC the requirement is 12, like the HoC, but I could be wrong.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/342680/assemblee-nationale-la-caq-n-est-pas-reconnue

Citizen ballot initiatives again- I never thought the PQ would be so keen on adopting American ideas about direct democracy (which I personally deplore no matter the ballot question).

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/342764/marois-balise-le-recours-aux-referendums-d-initiative-populaire

Fall is too late and spring is too soon. Summer it is.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/15/01-4496440-un-scrutin-avant-lete-est-peu-probable.php

A new Leger poll, a big one.

Not able to localise the general poll, but PQ has a large lead in Saguenay-Lac-St.Jean.
PQ40-CAQ29-Lib19 in Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

Haven't found it anywhere, but A-T isn't where they need to be leading. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised to see the PQ leading within the MoE overall.

I know, but I discovered that in the local newspaper site.

Well, I suppose than it is a Quebecor poll. So, regional results were said to regional newspaper. National results should be out at the TVA 22 heures or tomorrow in the JdM.

Found the result in a local article.

Liberals 29.
PQ 29.
CAQ 28.

http://lechoabitibien.canoe.ca/webapp/sitepages/articleImages.asp?abID=226556&imgID=1012291&catmainname=argalerie&catname=F%E9vrier%202012&dt=%20-%20Publi%E9%20le%2002%20f%E9vr.%202012 (http://lechoabitibien.canoe.ca/webapp/sitepages/articleImages.asp?abID=226556&imgID=1012291&catmainname=argalerie&catname=F%E9vrier%202012&dt=%20-%20Publi%E9%20le%2002%20f%E9vr.%202012)

Detailed for each region. Caution, huge MoEs.

Huge MoE = garbage. Nonetheless, I'd be curious to see how that translates in seat terms.

Well, Montreal and Quebec should have big enough samples to be relevent. Obviously, the total results are relevant, since their sample is probably over 1000, as each time they do that big poll.

PQ leads in Quebec, PLQ here in Montreal. Maybe Teddy or Hatman can plug these into their models if they have some time...

I know everyone will pile on me... but That Place projects a PQ minority. Mainly because urban Quebec is divided and rural Quebec united.

The idea of Pauline finally winning is strange, to me.

Seineur! (sorry):P who would have thought a month ago that the PQ... yes the once thought dead and broken apart party would... could win?!

Well if we look at the regions the PQ leads in 6, PLQ 2 and CAQ 3... it could happen. With FPTP, its a riding by riding game and in MTL where the PLQ leads some ridings will be 4 way battles!
Looks like people interest in the CAQ is starting to drop... anything can happen in an actual campaign so those numbers are still going to go all over the place.

Not really. CAQ had its honeymoon, and it looks less attractive on the second look. Plus we're due for a change anyways- no incumbency has lasted longer than 9 years since 1960. I always thought they made a mistake in continually passing her over. The "rebellion" was a bunch of malcontents who have personal beefs with her taking advantage of weak poll numbers. Now they'll all lose their seats...

Tommy: CAQ was a trend, not the first Quebec trend either federally or provincially to fade. They're a one-man band without original policies or even noteworthy candidates.

Two Montreal seats worth watching: L'Assomption (McKay v. Legault) and Gouin (Francoise David is running).

J'adore le Quebec.

So those of you closer to the ground, see CAQ losing all 9 MNAs? I agree both L'Assomption and Gouin will be interesting... If CAQ wins it HAS to be here... but McKay is a big name. If QS can't win in Gouin, they probably can't win anywhere else.
Oh Isn't L'Assomption going to be dramatically altered with redistribution? From what i see the riding is going to be slip; south Repentigny and Saint-Sulpice will be in the new riding of Repentigny... and a new, larger L'Assomption which takes in towns/areas from Rousseau Masson and Terrbonne ridings. Is McKay running in Repentigny or L'Assomption? his call since hes the current member

No. This is a 3-way race which anyone can win. Potentially the seat winner isn't the popular vote winner (as in '66). All the Indies look headed to defeat. If any survive, it will be either Lapointe, Curzi or Beaudoin.

McKay said on his Twitter on February 11 than he will run in Repentigny.

If Charest wins again, he'll join Gouin, Taschereau, Duplessis and Bourassa in the four-term club. Though they all won majorities... so he'll be forever a noob there.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lysiane-gagnon/charest-is-still-the-man-go-figure/article2342454/

Charest fishing for left-wing votes is a first.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/343182/patients-diriges-vers-le-prive-bolduc-en-saisit-le-college-des-medecins

Yawn.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/343180/droits-de-scolarite-plus-de-30-000-etudiants-sont-en-greve

If she does that she'll blow her nascent recovery.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/19/01-4497511-marois-veut-remettre-la-souverainete-a-lavant-plan.php

You know, if that annoy Gaétan Barrette, I'm totally for that.
I can't stand the man, and honestly, a doctor that obese isn't healthy and isn't a good example to his patients.

I agree with you on Barrette, if not the policy. Everyone knows the CHA has been dead in all but name for eons. Heck, even Peggy Nash admitted as much a couple of weeks ago. Why Charest is making a tactical ploy to her left is beyond me.

Charest has missed his window. The earliest dissolution by his own timetable would be immediately after the budget passes. I for one am eager for these hearings to start.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-dans-la-construction/201202/21/01-4498212-la-commission-charbonneau-tiendra-une-premiere-seance-en-mai.php

Did anyone else figure Bachand for a Turner-like figure?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/21/01-4498107-vie-privee-apres-toews-bachand.php

Good. We should start building nuke plants again, albeit properly.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/environnement/201202/20/01-4497987-la-ministre-boulet-veut-renover-gentilly-2.php

At least an NPDQ would join the CAQ in being the only two parties that aren't all based around the sovereignty issue.  And it would be a much needed to fill the gap on the left because this is how the parties line up on issues besides sovereignty.
PLQ: Center to center-right
PQ: formerly center-left/social democratic, now basically centrist/neoliberal
CAQ: Center-right
PCQ: Right wing
QS: left to far left/socialist
PVQ: Center-left (but little chance of gaining seats w/ FPTP and so many parties.

Wow, getting pretty crowded on the center and right wing there.   

PQ is still centre-left.

PCQ is totally irrelevent.

Agreed. Legault could also be marginalized because he has great difficulty communicating in either official language, and Charest is, as Ian MacDonald never fails to remind us, the best retailer of his generation.

Leger: PQ 30, PLQ 29, CAQ 26, QS 8.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/22/01-4498820-marois-rebondit.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B12_en-manchette_558_section_POS1

The trend is clear. PQ raises, CAQ slides, Liberals are very stable (which is normal, they only have their core vote, at that point).

What should alarm Liberals the most is that they have less than 20% of Francophone voters. PQ is drawing votes from the CAQ and QS, but IMO the winner will need 35-37% PV to form governmnet.

QS unveils some candidates.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/26/01-4499935-quebec-solidaire-devoile-16-candidats.php

If there was a window, he missed it.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/25/01-4499714-la-vitesse-un-gros-risque-pour-charest.php

I'd expect he'll dissolve shortly after the budget.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/26/01-4499893-rumeurs-delections-lopposition-sactive.php

A Forum Research poll from last week.

PQ: 39%
PLQ: 30%
CAQ: 19%

Probably an outlier.

Definitely an outlier.

Finished the Quebec Map including Montreal and Quebec City insets.

()

Slight edit to tidy up the Nelligan/Robert-Baldwin riding boundary , just south of Fabre on the Southern Quebec Inset. Also removed a couple of rogue pixels in Labelle.

Lapointe is retiring.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2012/03/04/004-retrait-politique-lisette-lapointe.shtml


As is LeMay, but Marois snagged a star candidate in St. Marie-St. Jacques.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/344263/circonscription-pequiste-de-sainte-marie-saint-jacques-lemay-part-breton-arrive

Won't go anywhere, but might stir up a language battle.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/national/201203/06/01-4502973-huntingdon-conteste-la-loi-101-une-politique-raciste.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B12_en-manchette_558_section_POS1

Dissolution in early May?

http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2012/03/06/002-budget-provincial-raymond-bachand-annonce-date-depot.shtml

Budget comes down 2 weeks from today.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/06/01-4503024-budget-bachand-le-20-mars.php

Having a bit of an attempt at estimating some notional results. One of the seats I found more interesting was the new riding of Granby, which was the remaining half of the old Shefford, after the other half was absorbed by Brome-Missisquoi. I was interested in it partially because it wasn't overly difficult to re-calculate (since it was one entire municipality from Shefford, so easy to split everything else off), and partially because it returned an ADQ Member, while nothing around it did, so I figured it would be useful to find out whether it was still notionally ADQ.

Anyway, by my calculations, it was:

ADQ - 9,744 (34.86%)
PLQ - 9,584 (34.29%)
PQ - 6,898 (24.68%)
QS - 877 (3.14%)
PVQ - 694 (2.48%)
IND - 154 (0.55%)

Adding in a proportion of the absentee and prisoner ballots, the totals would become:

ADQ - 9,747 (34.8%)
PLQ - 9,611 (34.32%)
PQ - 6,916 (24.7%)
QS - 879 (3.14%)
PVQ - 697 (2.49%)
IND - 154 (0.55%)

I'm hoping that perhaps we can do this for all the ridings before the election is called.

You'll have at least 6 weeks, if not more. I wouldn't expect dissolution before late April at the earliest.

I'd rather have the notional results for Alberta at this point.

I'll see what I can do... I have a bit on with work at the moment, too, so squeezing in what I can, when I can. I'll definitely give Alberta a shot, too. I think I have all the poll maps and poll results handy, so it's just a matter of adding and subtracting the relevant polls from the relevant districts.

I'm not sure its going to be that easy, there is no more ADQ its now CAQ, and i don't think the vote is 100% transferable (in every almost every instance this might eb the case). But by the looks of Granby we might have maybe two dozen or more ridings won by only a few hundred votes with 4 province-wide parties and in some maybe 5 or 6 parties. 

Yeah, it's by no means a prediction or a projection or anything, merely a statement of what happened within those boundaries last election (and since changed boundaries may well mean changed campaign strategy, it doesn't even imply who would actually have won the seat on those boundaries). It does, however, give a starting point when considering polling results. It's no different to looking at any other results from the last election. Indeed, the Beauce ridings didn't have any boundary changes, so it's no different to looking at Beauce Nord results from last election - not an indication of how any party will do there this election, but a useful starting point. Also handy for calculating swings after the election.

Excellent!

A new Léger Marketing-La Presse poll

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage_revise_10mars.pdf (http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage_revise_10mars.pdf)

PQ: 33%
PLQ: 28%
CAQ: 24%
QS: 6%
GRN: 4%
ON: 2%

PQ is near majority with those numbers.

A strong minority then. Plus she leads in PMP for the first time in eons.

Doubtful they'll get it this year.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/09/01-4504260-loqlf-veut-plus-de-muscle-pour-proteger-le-francais.php


Pope is Catholic, etc.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/09/01-4503847-jean-charest-defend-les-policiers.php

More Plan Nord stuff. It's good economically but not something to run on in an election year.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/344618/plan-nord-la-grande-seduction-des-universites

lol at CAQ

CAQ is... cack?

Yeah. Charest needs them to do better if he wants a shot. Sort of like 1944 when the Bloc Populaire nearly denied Duplessis his comeback. Or more recently, the '07 ADQ surge which took enough nationalist votes to push the PQ into 3rd.

All I can say is :mad:

http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120314/pq-claims-halal-meat-slams-against-quebec-values-120314/20120314?hub=TorontoNewHome

No goodies in this budget.

http://lapresseaffaires.cyberpresse.ca/economie/quebec/201203/14/01-4505323-budget-bachand-feu-vert-au-regime-de-retraite-pour-tous.php

What is it with Frenchies and halal meat?  I mean, the Bloc (and thus, I assume, the PQ as well) love the seal hunt, so it must be some French thing.  And why is a (supposedly) social democratic party trying to emulate Marine Le Pen? 

Read up on the whole "reasonable accomodation" debate in 2006-7 that shaped the 2007 election. While mostly confined to the PQ, it is by no means exclusive. Not that long ago the National Assembly unanimously passed burka ban legislation despite there being (according to the major Muslim community organizations) less than 200 women in the province who wear them. I'll simplify a bit and say "defending traditional culture under the guise of secular social liberalism" summarizes most of it.

I saw two burkas women yesterday and another one lived on the same floor than me last year.

So, I doubt than they are less than 200.

Can't say I disagree. This sort of gang-up disgusts but does not surprise me in the least. Where are the people like Levesque, Godin and Ryan when you need them?

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/03/16/barbara-kay-quebec-values-means-no-blessings-for-chickens/

Good. She threw that asshole over the side.

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Politics/20120316/Pierre-Curzi-retire-politics-120316/

CROP-La Presse, March Poll

PQ: 34%
Libs: 30%
CAQ: 24%
QS: 5%
Grn: 5%
ON: 1%

French vote is 41 PQ, 29 CAQ, 19 Libs.

Probably very near of a PQ majority.

4 point spread isn't enough for a majority.

Budget.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/21/01-4507639-en-route-vers-des-elections.php

Poll.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/20/01-4507629-marois-poursuit-sur-sa-lancee.php

Must I remember than PQ got a majority in 1998 while losing popular vote?

True. '94 was also a tie... so more accurately, 4 isn't a slam-dunk.

A "new" (a week old) Léger Marketing-La Presse poll

http://www.legermarketing.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Sondage_politique_provinciale_Le_Devoir_7_avril_2012.pdf (http://www.legermarketing.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Sondage_politique_provinciale_Le_Devoir_7_avril_2012.pdf)

PQ: 33% (-)
PLQ: 27% (-1)
CAQ: 22% (-2)
QS: 7% (+1)
GRN: 5% (+1)
ON: 1% (-1)

I suppose than all news about corruption hurted more Liberals this week.

I agree with Wells- Charest has to dissolve in the next 2-3 months, before Charbonneau gets underway in the fall. Probably the most anti-PLQ environment since 1976.

I think the massive student protests and the fact the public is generally on side with them could be the one thing holding Charest back.  Even though outside Quebec there is little sympathy for the students as even after the hikes, tuition will still be lower than most other provinces.  Still unlike English Canada, many believe post secondary education should ideally be free whereas in English Canada most accept students should bare some of the cost.  Off course corruption allegations could hurt more.  Likewise the fact the CAQ is out of the news is probably why they are sliding in the polls.  Another factor is also Harper's unpopularity in Quebec.  No doubt the PQ can use that as a reason to bolster their cause.

sad to see ON and PI under the line of 1% on those elections :/

The public is losing sympathy as these strikes grow increasingly violent. Nor should Charest negotiate with a mob. Rates should be the same as they are in English Canada.

I agree. It should be 0 for everybody!

I personally admire the protests. I wish students in Ontario had the balls to do this. Maybe our tuition wouldn't be so high.

I've never understood support for raising tuition rates just as a general idea. It's one of the most pointlessly vindictive policy proposals I can think of. Given that, I have a lot of respect for the determination of the student protestors in Quebec. They should be standing up to defend themselves against a pointless budget move that punishes people seeking an education in return to not really raising that much money.

That being said, though, why is this
inherently desirable?

New forum research poll:
PQ-35%
PLQ-35%
CAQ-16%
QS-8%
PVQ-5%

It still projects a 6-seat PQ majority due to parties' geographic distribution of support, etc.  (PQ 66, PLQ 50, CAQ 7, QS 2).

PLQ supporters are certainly stubborn as hell, aren't they?

Well, they tend to think that the other parties are (basically) the devil, so there you are.

Who are hardcore, montreal english federalist suppost to vote for? and Charest could come out as the devil-in-carnet and he would still win seats on the west island.

This is why i STILL want a NPDQ but i digress that a whole other argument.

I support the students too, they are expected to make a counter offer... i think Charest boxed himself in on this issue.... frankly the rest of Canada is wrong. I would like to see people start talking about new funding ideas like graduate taxes.
Today will not be a good day for Charest.. its May Day... students will be joined by unionists and otehr anti-capitalists... he just can't get a break eh :)

http://www.montrealgazette.com/Charest+expected+call+election+just+riding/6542677/story.html

no general election this summer but a by-election

Finally. What's the hold up? It's a (semi) safe Liberal seat.

As for the PLQ doing as well as they are, lets remember Allophones and Anglophones make up close to 20% of the population and they usually vote PLQ pretty heavily as they are the only party that doesn't come across as hostile to them.  In addition, there will always be some Francophones who will vote for them too, although I doubt Charest is doing too well amongst them.  Never mind some still haven't forgotten Parizeau's money and ethnic vote comment from 1995, so I suspect many of them aren't going to ever go PQ.  After all, fair or not fair, this gave a strong impression the PQ is a party only for the Pur Laine.

The minority vote is what keeps the PLQ alive- their share of the Francophone vote is rather small but highly concentrated. That's why they're still competitive.

Charest caved. Pathetic, but then again he's been doing that since those strikes 8-9 years ago.

Simard is retiring.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2012/06/27/004-parti-quebecois-demissions.shtml

La Presse newspaper reports Charest would like to start the campaign August 1st for a vote on September 4th (a Tuesday after Labour Day).

A campaign during summer? I hope politicians don't complain if people are cynical about politics or if the voter turnout is low.

The article says Clément Gignac is changing riding and will run in Québec City, possibly in Taschereau against PQ Agnès Maltais. On the new electoral map the riding is less PQ. Transposed result show it would have been 12,783 PQ votes to 11,188 PLQ 

That would be terrible ... as I am going on vacation in early August and would miss some critical blogging time ;)

Here's the article. MacMillan is also retiring, but the Liberals have found a candidate to replace him in Papineau.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/10/01-4542539-elections-aux-urnes-le-4-septembre.php

Fun fact: 1994 was the last September election we had. It was also the last time a majority Liberal government went down in flames. :P

McMillan confirms his retirement.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/11/01-4542703-plq-norm-macmillan-confirme-son-depart.php

Chantal Hebert's take on possible scenarios.

http://www.lactualite.com/politique/chantal-hebert/archive/predictions-estivales-le-quebec-en-mode-electoral?page=0,1

I have trouble deciding which of the 5 scenarios will happen. I feel anything can happen.

In case some didn't know about the 2008 election results according to the 2012 ridings, you can find them at this location. It is a pdf, maybe it exists in other format and since I can't post links you have to add the www before

electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/transposition.pdf

Looks more like a minority at this stage but anything can happen.

Oh, that is awesome! Good job tracking that down! I had started to do some of the sums for that a few months back, but then switched my focus to Alberta (you can see a few pages back in this thread). This is great! I'll convert these to maps!

By the sounds of it, Charest is hoping for the lower turnout. I wouldn't be surprised to see the CAQ pick up a few seats, just due to the motivation factor.

How are the student strikes playing with mainstream Quebecers by the way? I'd guess not well, but I've never been able to understand Quebec poltiics

Roughly, one half agrees and one half disagrees. Neither side has a real advantage in the opinion.

Notional 2008 Quebec Election Results, according to this (http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/transposition.pdf) PDF.

2008 Quebec Notional Election Results
()

Some close ridings to watch.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/12/01-4542900-elections-tout-peut-arriver.php

Student protesters gear up.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/conflit-etudiant/201207/11/01-4542883-apres-la-greve-les-elections.php

They stuck with him in '93, they'll stick with him now.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1226136--hebert-sherbrooke-will-be-ground-zero-in-charest-s-battle-to-remain-quebec-premier

Can anyone give me a summary of the Quebecois parties?

Liberal: Centre-something, the "something" depends on your ideological perception. Firmly federalist.

PQ: Social democratic/progressive/centre-left depending on who you talk to, sovereigntist.

CAQ: Centre-right. They claim to be agnostic on the national question but in practice agnosticism means tacitly federalist.

QS: A more left-wing, hardcore sovereigntist breakaway from the PQ.

For the record, unlike PQ, QS doesn't see the independance as a goal, but as a tool to implant its program.

I agree with Hebert. He's in trouble there.

I concur. Charest almost lost in 2007 and Sherbrooke is the city with the biggest percentage of students in Quebec. Some local businessman are angry at him, because students are a significant part of their clientele and the hike would reduce their other expenses, so they would buy less.

Heh. Probably one of the few business owners to support the students. :)

I suppose it is fitting that Sherbrooke is represented by the youngest MP in Canadian history.

The PQ candidate in Sherbrooke is former Bloc MP Serge Cardin, so they have not chosen a sacrificial lamb.

The PLQ was the only party to oppose the proposal of having voting stations on campuses to increase youth voting. Without unanimity it won't happen this time.

I wonder if it will be difficult to get students coming study in Sherbrooke to register in that riding. I don't know what will be the dates for voting list revision and changes but if the election is Sept. 4, many students start classes August 27, it could be just when they are arriving in town. Not much time for student associations to inform them about voting rules. Students will have to change their permanent domicile address because there has been a rule change.  People like students will no longer be able to register on the list of electors of their temporary place of residence.   

Question- Does Charest identify with the federal Conservatives or the federal Liberals? I know he was a PC Minister, 1993 survivor, and leader, but does he still hold ties with the Tories?

I don't know for Sherbrooke, but there will be 3 starting dates this year.
August 15 (for those those strike didn't end), September 4 and October 1st (for universities which want college people who will have graduated in Septemebr), depending of the striking.

In my case, I begin on October 1st, so, I'll vote in the swing Abitibi-Est and not the Liberal stronghold of Outremont, so, I won't complain.

For TexasD, no, his federal preference isn't known. Probably prefer the Tory party, but he has an awful relation with Harper.

EDIT: For Sherbrooke, there is lot of dates, mainly August 27 and September 10 and 17. September 4 and October 1 exist, but they are rare. And people which didn't finished the Winter semester will start even earlier.

Having an early September election is a good way to hinder the student vote. Coincidence?

Perhaps, but that can be explained another way.

Summer: Bad idea, people are annoyed by it.

September 10: Would put early voting during Labor Day weekend (early vote favor Liberals).

September 17: Rosh Hashanah, which is a Jew feast (they vote Liberal too).

After: The corruption inquiry commission is meeting again, which may hurt Liberals.

That was nineteen years ago. Things are different now: an excessively curly headed breath of fresh air he is absolutely not these days.

100% agreed.

Again, everyone who's anyone has left this government.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/16/01-4543879-pas-delections-pour-michelle-courchesne-et-monique-gagnon-tremblay.php

They will need to recruit cabinet material women candidates. Over one year, Courchesne, Gagnon-Tremblay, Beauchamp, Normandeau have left politics.

I have noticed over the last two weeks the PLQ has chosen many candidates who are town mayors or councillors.

I think the PQ needs some economic star candidate(s) to have more credentials in that area.

     

CAQ candidate in Chomedey dropped for accusing separatists of racism on Twitter.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/355161/la-caq-limoge-un-candidat

Carres rouges weigh their options.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/as-quebec-election-looms-protesters-weigh-voters-wrath/article4434653/

6 ridings to watch.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/charests-fate-in-quebec-election-comes-down-to-these-six-ridings/article4435182/

I think thats a HUGE distinction to make, and one thats especially lost on english/rest-of-canadian media, is it in PQ as well?

Any rate, isn't stopping QS from getting some strong candidates in place outside of Montreal...
http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2012/07/19/006-elections-solidaire-couture.shtml


Outside of Mercier, Gouin and possibly Sainte-Marie--Saint-Jaques; i don't see QS winning anywhere else, but this is quebec and they will now have a place in the leaders debate so anything can happen... i'm hoping they surprise here in Ungava and win... a boy can dream :)

No, the PQ wants independance for independance. And hopefully QS stay low. If they are high, it's a sure thing than Liberals are reelected.

QS will bleed support from the PQ, dunno what effect CAQ will have. This is our first four-cornered election since 1970. Difference is that the third/fourth parties are nowhere near strong enough to collapse un des deux like the Creditistes/Peqs did then. What they can do is deprive Marois of victory.

My early prediction: at least a 50-50 shot of the winner losing the popular vote.

Well, I think than CAQ will hurt Liberals more than PQ.

In other news, PQ announced its candidate in my riding. Unknown, but a strong resume.

Court of Appeal rejects the students' petition.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/355175/sursis-pour-la-loi-78-la-cour-d-appel-rejette-la-demande-des-etudiants

I'm quite astonished by the Liberal candidate in Rouyn-Noranda--Témiscamingue, a seat than they currently hold.
A 24 year old girl, which isn't living in Abitibi anymore and whose main achievement is apparently participating in a UN simulation.
I don't really think it is a good candidate to defend a swing seat.

Clearly they've looked at what happened in 2011 and drawn the wrong conclusions.

Speaking of student candidates.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/23/01-4558296-leo-bureau-blouin-candidat-du-pq.php

Is anyone surprised? The PQ (and QS) was out there and very visibly supportive of the students, whether that was politically motivated or ideologically, the point was they were there.

Laval-des-Rapides was one of the ridings to watch mentioned in the Globe articule
"... Laval-des-Rapides has also voted with the governmnet since its creation before the 1981 election."
So there is a chance he could win if the PQ manages to win gov't

Its odd that in both these cases, the parties chose young candidates... thats something i see normally not reserved for swimg/battle ridings. Thats something you see in a) super safe ridings or b) no-chance-in-hell ridings... but Quebec bucks the trend eh :)

With QS, i am hoping for a 2011-NPD repeat but... thats me; with 4 leaders in the debate, it sure will be interesting and might mean more gains for both CAQ and QS (Kadir was ranked at one point the most popular politician, but no guarantee he would even represent the party in the debate, might pass that to David to help her out in Gouin).

On paper Marois should be cruising. The fact that she's level-pegging says a lot.

QS winning more than two seats barring some phenomenal surge which seems quite unlikely, would be a massive upset and anybody who seriously thinks they could win more than 2 at this point is certainly delusional or a hack who should smell the coffee. I seriously doubt the QS vote will end up being 9-10% on election day anyway.

Depends on the vote split. This is a time where I really wish we had exit polls so you could see the breakdowns... but alas, I'm sure Hatman and Funke will do that for us.

well we've seen massive "upsets" in Quebec haven't we as of late; i jsut don't think you can discount anything. Khadir won Mercier in a three way vote split; this election you will see 4 way splits, especially in MTL. QS has been performing pretty steady, consistently at about double if not triple what they received provincewide in 08... this will have almost no effect outside the three seats they can win... both at the expense of the PQ

It just feels like the PQ are not winning people over, even as the strongest opposition to the liberals they just don't seem to be catching fire,Marois should have been taken out when they had their chance. CAQ and QS haven't really caught on either... but the election hasn't started yet so i think thats when people will really start to pay attention.

Marois should have been taken out? By whom? She's their best and only option. I agree that there's little enthusiasm behind her but when was the last time either the Pelqs or Peqs had genuine enthusiasm behind them?

... hmmm you've got me there, i'd say never? :P

I'd go with only option

The last time the Peqs had genuine enthusiasm was probably 1994. PLQ... I dunno, 1973? 1962? :P

QS vote will suffer from the same problem than NDP in 2008 in Quebec. They had good poll numbers through the campaign, but, the vote approching, their vote went down, because of strategical voting.

Huh? I thought that was Parizeau's job.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/355239/l-independance-du-quebec-est-une-urgence-dit-bernard-landry

Another star PQ candidate.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/24/01-4558421-bernard-genereux-candidat-du-pq-dans-blainville.php

PQ recruitment is quite impressive in many areas of Quebec.
The CAQ recruitment is worse than expected.
Liberal recruitment is very bad, but, that isn't surprising.

In my Abitibi region, the party with the best recruitment is CAQ, through.

While I agree they probably wont win more than 2 seats, I can't help but giggle, because you could easily replace QS with "NDP" and have the same quote from April 2011.

One star Peq candidate confirmed.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/24/01-4558552-leo-bureau-blouin-confirme-sa-candidature.php

Liberals finally get a star candidate.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/25/01-4558639-lex-batonnier-gilles-ouimet-avec-les-liberaux.php

RDI's QP has devoted their entire show to LBB's candidacy. LOL. :P

CAQ star candidate?

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201207/25/01-4559401-le-dr-gaetan-barrette-necarte-pas-un-avenir-politique.php

That guy has no creditibility. People I know call him "the obese doctor on TV".
Especially than he is complaining than 200.000$ isn't enough for a specialist doctor or the like....

At least that bubble was popped. There are few people in provincial politics I dislike more than Legault, mostly because of that godawful "reform" (which I narrowly escaped) he and Marois pushed through in the last PQ government.

From younger people I know, the reform isn't bad. It isn't good neither. To assess the full effect, we must wait than they reach the work market.

Already, we saw than there is no difference in college marks.

Claire Samson will be a CAQ candidate, per RDI.

Peqs definitely swept the starstakes this cycle.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/pq-surrounds-marois-with-star-candidates/article4441521/

Liberals kick off in Quebec next week.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/26/01-4559741-lancement-de-la-campagne-des-mercredi-prochain.php?
Not this time, unfortunately.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/26/01-4559699-vote-dans-les-cegeps-et-universites-fecq-et-feuq-insistent.php?

Another PQ star candidate.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-nouvelliste/politique-quebecoise/201207/26/01-4559632-djemila-benhabib-candidate-dans-trois-rivieres.php?

Fix those links please.

Done.

diolch

Oh, CAQ shows great coherancy again.

One local candidate here voted for a motion at Témiscamingue MRC council for a scolarity fee freeze and a bonification of the financial aid system (which passed, by the way).

CAQ isn't coherent on the national question, neither it is on the policies.

Radio said than a CAQ internal, by CROP is saying Libs 31, PQ 30, CAQ 24.

Apparently the Grits are at 22 among Francophones. Which sounds like a PQ majority to me.

For me too. It's too low to come in the middle because of the CAQ-PQ divide in suburbs and too much of their 31% in concentrated in the same ridings (West Island, anglos areas elsewhere).

A PQ internal, done by Repère and reported by QMI.
PQ 33, Lib 30, CAQ 21
Francos: PQ 38, Lib 25, CAQ 23.

Charest insatisfaction is 71%, in line with other polls (was 69% in Léger of June) and Marois is tied with Charest as best PM, which is in line too.

There is a weird result, through, the independance being at 49%.

http://fr.canoe.ca/infos/quebeccanada/archives/2012/07/20120726-161735.html (http://fr.canoe.ca/infos/quebeccanada/archives/2012/07/20120726-161735.html)

Radio said it was a CAQ internal, published in the Presse, not a CROP-La Presse poll.

Are we getting an election call next week?

I heard Sept 4th was the date they are going with
---
http://tvanouvelles.ca/lcn/infos/national/archives/2012/07/20120726-200129.html

QS: 12 "targeted" of those 6 priority(winable)... we know some are Gouin, Saint-Jaques - Sainte-Marie... but Laurier-Dorion, Taschereau, Joliette, Sherbrooke were mentioned by Amir in the interview... Sherbrooke! really the Premiers seat, that seems a bit outside the box eh.

Also, some policy, platform ideas mentioned.

lolololol

Yep, confirmed that Charest will dissolve on Wednesday. His own nomination meeting is Tuesday.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/355493/l-election-aura-probablement-lieu-le-4-septembre-selon-le-ministre-lessard

http://www.lapresse.ca/la-tribune/sherbrooke/201207/26/01-4559877-linvestiture-de-charest-a-lhotel-delta-mardi.php

So i'm hearing about another party, been around since last year; UCQ, Union Citoyenne du Quebec... a leftwing federalist party (is the PLQ scared yet? lol). I've just noticed this on a Quebecois NPD friends facebook page. So far seem to be very Urban, very MTL focused

http://www.cbc.ca/quebecam/2012/07/23/union-citoyenne-du-quebec-seeks-to-pick-up-support-among-progressive-federalists/

conversation with the coordinater

My thought exactly :P talk about aming high eh

---

Finally, a party I can support!

The fat doctor is running for the CAQ in Terrebonne.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/27/01-4560216-gaetan-barrette-fait-le-saut.php

Robert Poeti is running for the Liberals in Marguerite-Bourgeoys.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/28/01-4560244-le-chroniqueur-robert-poeti-se-lance-avec-le-plq.php

At some point we'll have to compile a list of star candidates/ridings to watch on E-Night. :P
 

3 ex-Adequistes are running with the Liberals.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201207/29/01-4560372-trois-ex-adequistes-chez-les-liberaux.php

I love French.

... And the PQ have now made it official; they will fight/pester/antagonize the feds to muster support for sovereignty, then hold a referendum when they have "winning conditions" nothing changes eh.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/pq-reveals-referendum-strategy-as-election-looms/article4448101/

And with the former adequistes running for Charest, any doubt about how right-wing the PLQ has become is out the door (but really, he had to go after the CAQ, that bleeding from the right will hurt the PLQ worse then the PQ)

Separatists are horrendous. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=154076.0)

The odds of a referendum going beyond a fetish of the Toronto media claque is somewhere between zero and nil.

Ridings to watch.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/in-quebec-election-three-way-races-could-make-the-difference/article4448511/

Legault getting more dovish on tuition.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/355662/conflit-etudiant-un-reglement-sans-la-classe-est-possible-selon-legault

Take it outside. The thread is mediocre enough as it is...

I doubt than Bonaventure could be described as a riding to watch.
It's quite safely Liberal, for me.

Yep, I just posted the article's title. Only a few of them are swingy.

That's what happens when you post Eric Grenier (308.com) crap. Even if he's masquerading as a "journalist" for the G&M.

La Presse has encouragement for LBB.

http://www.lapresse.ca/debats/editoriaux/mario-roy/201207/27/01-4560078-du-sang-neuf.php

http://www.lapresse.ca/debats/chroniques/stephane-laporte/201207/28/01-4560284-leo-libre.php

Well, he runs for PQ, so, they encourage him, considering their political position.

Well i actually hope he wins; and i need to give the PQ credit for the number of young MNAs they have (probably all flukes but still, i'm impressed)... Turcotte, Boucher, Trembley (not running again), Traversy... 07 Wawanaloth but lost in 08.

Plus, if elected he will be a huge contributor to the debate.
meh, Legault is just taking a Charest-Lite approach to the tuition issue. Not one of the parties (i might be wrong but) is actually looking at a new way of approaching the tuiition issue. meh

I hope this become more about the corruption then tuition

PLQ/CAQ battle around Quebec City.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201207/30/01-4560814-lutte-electorale-plq-caq-a-quebec.php

Why is the QC area so rather right-wing? 07 a large number of seats went ADQ, now its CAQ who is gaining traction? most prov. capitals tend to have a centre-left tilt to them. Interesting, anyone know?

Quebec City was also the federal Tories' mini-fortress until Orange Crush. A relatively small city, wealthy and fiscally conservative. Somewhat snobbish too. They see themselves as aristocrats to Montreal's bourgeoisie.

really? well i suppose outside the core (like most cities) the Core looks to have been held by the Bloc, then provincially the PQ... has to have some left-working class... unless they go PQ because of the sovereignty issue?
QC isn't that small, its what 800-900K about the size of Winnipeg and Ottawa (excluding Hull-Gatineau) but compared to MTL i see your point.
interesting to see though, most capitals tend to be more left... even when there not the largest cities (Victoria, Edmonton) but won't pay to generalize i suppose

That is usually the case - since rightwing parties tend to go to war against public sector unions and civil servants - who in turn tend to be a large part of the population of capital cities. However, Quebec city is an odd exception. Ottawa is a also a bit of an exception - once you get past the NDP fortress of Ottawa Centre and the Liberals fortresses of Ottawa-vanier and Ottawa South - all the other ridings in Ottawa and its 'burbs are very conservative.

A radio station in Quebec City is backing an independent candidate to represent the silent majority, people who wake up early and work hard. They chose the riding of Vanier and let people chose the candidate among people interested in running. A former ADQ MNA was chosen.

 

So not really an independent candidate then eh? :P

So i figured this would happen: Francoise David to represent QS in the debates, smart move and i called it :)

http://tvanouvelles.ca/lcn/infos/national/archives/2012/07/20120731-205902.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

The dissolution announcement will be in 30-odd minutes.

Strange. To the last news, TVA wanted 3 debates, with Libs, PQ and CAQ only.
The other channels aren't agreeing, through.

Charest is speaking with Duschene right now.

The Assemblée has been dissolved. Campaign has STARTED. :D

Charest appealing to the silent majority.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/01/01-4561398-a-la-majorite-silencieuse-de-trancher-dit-charest.php

Marois: More debates the better. Also LOL @ Legault of all people proposing town halls.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/01/01-4561440-marois-pour-de-nombreux-debats-televises-mais-contre-les-forums-de-legault.php?

Both Legault and Marois want corruption to be the issue.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/01/01-4561424-legault-veut-dabord-sattaquer-a-la-corruption.php

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/355815/marois-n-attend-pas-l-annonce-officielle-pour-lancer-sa-campagne

Khadir will have tough competition in Mercier, so Marois is the only leader who won't have to watch their own seat.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/355801/jean-poirier-tentera-de-deloger-khadir


Charest said the media consortium has proposed 4 (!) debates but while he and Marois have accepted Legault hasn't yet. Unsurprising because Legault's a crap communicator.

My favourite part of Charest's press conference this morning was when a Le Devoir reporter asked him about the Liberal depiction of Marois as "haute bourgeoise." (Or as I like to call her, La Reine d'Ile Bizard) Charest pwned him for putting words in his mouth.

If I was Quebecois, i'd vomit in the voting booth if my real choice was between QLP, PQ and the CAQ. Horrible party system, horrible.

(Of course, i'd hold my breath and vote QLP out of sheer hatred of separatist movements in places like Quebec.)

That's no reason to vote for the PLQ, which is an extremely corrupt outfit in cahoots with the worst personalities of Quebec's mafia of sorts, and whose tenure has oscillated between sheer incompetence, disgusting opportunistic posturing, lies and recently a total disregard for fundamental civil liberties. I fail to see one really positive thing which has come out of 9 years of Liberal governance.

I have little respect for anybody who can still vote for the PLQ after all this, regardless of Marois being an incompetent doofus and Legault being a moron. It's not like I disagree with your assessment of the choices, I certainly wouldn't be enthused about voting for any of the three parties (but I'd hold my nose and vote PQ, as the least-worst, despite being a federalist) but there's no excuse to support the PLQ, especially if you're left-of-centre. And, no, your weird and bizarre rabid hatred of "separatism" isn't even a remotely good excuse.

I mostly agree with Hash except for me the PLQ is the least worst option. And I'm on record here as having zero time for the PQ-as-Satan crap despite being a staunch federalist. There will be no referendum, no CLF extension in CEGEPs or anything like that. The reason Marois occasionally throws red meat to her base on language is because she is NOT an orthodoxe. Her record is that of an administrator (having served in every major Cabinet slot except Justice), not a rabble-rouser. Just like the other 2.

Dion and Trudeau are willing to help their MLAs if asked, but those seats are safely Liberal so they probably won't be needed.

http://o.canada.com/2012/08/01/stephen-harpers-tories-to-steer-clear-of-quebec-election/

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/justin-trudeau-among-few-federal-politicians-weighing-into-quebec-election-164500036.html

That's exactly my position.

We will get one than more debate this time. One with 4 leaders (the fourth is QS Françoise David) on August 19th on Radio-Canada and Télé-Québec.

TVA is doing a new debate format. One on one on three consecutive nights. On the 20th Marois-Charest, 21th Legault-Charest, 22th Legault-Marois.

The first Léger marketing poll of the campaign (done pre-campaign) shows a tight two-way race. 33% PQ, 31% PLQ, 21% CAQ, 7% QS.
PLQ is leading in Quebec City area with 37 % to 26 for CAQ. 44% of people in that region also believe the Liberals will form next government. Results to all the questions can be found at their webpage.

http://www.legermarketing.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/ElectionQuebec2012_sondage%20QMI%201_final.pdf (http://www.legermarketing.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/ElectionQuebec2012_sondage%20QMI%201_final.pdf)

 

Hey, can I have a quick overview of Quebec politics, and this year's election more specifically? I'm apparently distantly French-Canadian (from at least slightly before the Lower Canada Rebellion), so I'd like to know more about it.

My blog will eventually (before September 4) have a full preview/profile post with each party explained and stuff on the political culture, if you - and others - can wait a few weeks for a complete answer.

The political situation in Quebec being what it is, is why i didn't move there after High school (grew up a meer 20-30minustes from the Quebec border). With a choice between PLQ (corrupt, right-wing uses federalism as a wedge) PQ (the ravenous french above all else, seperatist thing) i'd vote more for the PQ. They are social democrats (or at least much more progressive then the PLQ), now they ain't what they used to be, and i'd have voted Levesque and 76 PQ in a heart beat... BUT the choices ain't that limited anymore... so as y'all know i'd go QS (soft, very soft sovereigntist; socialist)... There is also UCQ (Union Citoyenne du Quebec, basically a Social Democratic federalist newish party)... CAQ is a joke so far, its trying to be a less-corrupt PLQ without the federalist podium

CAQ promised to delete all waiting in hospitals in two years, without giving any details.
They really think people will be that dumb to believe that?

He wants corruption to be the issue.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-quebec-2012/2012/08/02/004-legault-integrite-cohen.shtml

13 ridings to watch.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/02/01-4561564-les-13-circonscriptions-qui-feront-les-elections.php

Lisee is running in Rosemont.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/355895/lisee-confirme-qu-il-sera-candidat-dans-rosemont

Marois won't commit one way or the other on daycare fees.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/02/01-4561813-marois-refuse-de-sengager-a-geler-les-garderies-a-7.php

CLASSE: No truce. If there's any violence during the campaign that helps Charest, so wonder what they'll do.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/02/01-4561703-treve-electorale-la-classe-rejette-lappel-de-bureau-blouin.php

The Quebec Liberal party has been in power since 2003. For the last year or two, polls show two thirds of the population not satisfied with the government. There has been ethic issues. Jean Charest is a good campaigner.

So there is a desire for change. The opposition's PQ leader Pauline Marois has not been able to capitalize on this. She probably doesn't connect much with voters and has had to fight party infighting.

The Coalition Avenir Québec is a new party started by a former PQ minister. He pledged no   referendum on independence for 10 years. The third party was the ADQ, a centre right party, and it merged with the CAQ. A few (I think it's three) sitting MNA's also joined CAQ. They represent change more.

The has been a student strike because of tutiton fees hike since last Spring and street protests against the law. The Liberals want to make the ballot issue about the student conflict rather than their record.

There is no great love for any of the three main leaders right now. It's who you dislike the least or who you don't want to win. There are also smaller parties.

First Quebec prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/08/quebec-2012-election-prediction-map.html (Warning: based solely on regional uniform swings!)  I will skew the numbers over time to reflect the real goings-on.

Comedy gold: Duceppe accuses Khadir of not being a real separatist because he voted NDP federally.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1237078--quebec-election-2012-duceppe-lashes-out-at-quebec-solidaire-leader

Former leader, current nobody Duceppe's opinion matters?

Duceppe can still make news when he wants to despite his involuntary retirement. And yes he still has a (diminished) goodwill reservoir within the movement.

It will be interesting to see what effect Jacques Duchesneau running for the CAQ in Saint-Jérôme will have. How much will it help the CAQ. Will it hurt more the PQ or PLQ.

La Presse has a map made from the political donor's list.
http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/carte-du-financement-politique-au-quebec/?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_hotTopics_sujets-a-la-une_1664122_accueil_POS1 (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/carte-du-financement-politique-au-quebec/?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_hotTopics_sujets-a-la-une_1664122_accueil_POS1)

Legault is taking a risk with Duchesneau.
I don't see Duchesneau obeying to a party line and to someone.

Indeed Duschesneau is already overshadowing Legault.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-quebec-2012/2012/08/06/002-legault-duschesneau-nommer-ministres.shtml

I've hated these gimmicky tax credits since '04, hate them even more with every election regardless of authorship.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/06/01-4562692-le-plq-promet-100-par-enfant-pour-la-rentree-de-2013.php

Students protesting in Sherbrooke.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356158/la-feuq-dans-le-chateau-fort-de-charest

Marois starts fed-bashing.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1237828--quebec-election-marois-says-odious-federal-ei-overhaul-is-more-reason-for-independence

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elections/pq-would-battle-newfoudland-over-st-lawrence-oil-deposit-marois/article4465486/

The bigger problem is his lack of a university degree.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/06/01-4562815-bureau-blouin-trop-jeune-pour-etre-ministre-dit-marois.php

How come? It's insulting for the working-class.
Well, I agree on Marois on this one, but not with your point.

EDIT: By the way, one minister, Norm MacMillan has no university degree.
There is no information if Lise Thériault (Labor Minister) has one, too.

She doesn't have a degree.


Source:
http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/dossiers/commission-charbonneau/201110/28/01-4462477-lise-theriault-la-femme-qui-fait-trembler-la-ftq.php (http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/dossiers/commission-charbonneau/201110/28/01-4462477-lise-theriault-la-femme-qui-fait-trembler-la-ftq.php)

More bri... I mean tax credits.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/07/01-4563007-jean-charest-propose-un-credit-dimpot-pour-la-renovation-verte.php

Bad move, swing voters won't like that sort of red meat.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/07/01-4562958-les-liberaux-menacent-lidentite-quebecoise-dit-pauline-marois.php?

Legault: kill the health tax.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356238/legault-promet-d-eliminer-la-taxe-sante-et-de-reduire-progressivement-les-impots

In a normal world, Charest would be prosecuted for buying votes and improperly spending the taxpayers' money. It's ridiculous. And, for me, it is insulting. He raises tuition because "we need to be fiscally responsible", yet, he offers to spend ridiculous amounts of money on silly things.
It's vote-buying and it should be illegal.

Marois and nationalism. Nothing special there, she repeats what she is saying since months. Shouldn't swing anymore towards her, neither against her.

Legault promises more services and less taxes, which is dubious. Even if I agree than the non-progressive health tax should be scrapped.

Marois is just making talking to her die-hard base of sovereingtist, just like the NDP still talks up to Labour, its your base its going to happen. Plus with so many other "left" options she is bound to lose some support on the soft-nationalist side to QS maybe ON; so shes talking rough with Harper, Royals, etc.

PLQ are desperate, hence why they are yelling and screaming that the you need to vote PLQ or the country will explode, again talking to the base.

CAQ; not surprised, they are trying to be the ADQ, but they just sound like they have no idea how to run things... they should just stick with the corruption schtick

Vote compas! I'm in the 70% range for both QS and Greens; below 50% CAQ & PLQ... i'm less nationalist (obviously) so i lose points with QS/PQ and gain some with the PLQ (cringe)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/quebecvotes2012/features/votecompass.html

Same results as you have.

Their chart uses "identity" on their y axis and "socio economic" for the x axis.

It says I cam closest to the Greens on the chart, but I agree with ON the most.

()

I'm roughly X 3-something, Y 1.5 something.

()

And i'd probably not vote Green, so...

Nearly identical, but of course, you always have to be slightly more right wing than me. You must be against gay marriage or something ;)

I was just below the Quebec Liberal Party. Including 'importance', I'm dead on the QLP.

Although I apparently agreed with CAQ on 66% of issues. With the QLP on 65%.

I'm just below the greens on the identity axis and exactly in the same place on the socio-economic. Somewhat predictable. Not really very enthusiastic about the candidates or party platforms.

How Much You Agree with the Parties: GRN75% QS71% ON64% PQ64% CAQ54% QLP52%

How Much you agree with the Parties

CAQ: 59%
PLQ: 59%
PQ: 31%
GRN: 26%
ON: 16%
QS: 8%

CAQ wants more family leave.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/08/01-4563349-francois-legault-cible-les-parents-de-jeunes-enfants.php

Charest wants expanded dental coverage.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/08/01-4563316-jean-charest-veut-elargir-la-couverture-des-soins-dentaires.php

Libman endorses Legault.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/08/01-4563234-robert-libman-suggere-de-voter-pour-francois-legault.php?

Charest rips off Harper's home reno tax credit.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356323/les-liberaux-proposent-un-credit-d-impot-a-la-renovation

Oh sheizer.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356330/la-commission-charbonneau-s-invite-dans-la-campagne

Dream on.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-quebec-2012/2012/08/08/007-pq-rapatriement-assurance-emploi-ottawa.shtml

I took the Vote compass test and this is what I got :
- ON and QS 83% (but closer to QS on the chart)
- Green 75%
- PQ 70%
- Caq 48%
- PLQ 32%

I'm a little bit surprised and amused that I agree more with the right-wing Caq than with the flabby-leftish PLQ, but I tend to hate the party in power.

Just a question : I had read a few things about this Option nationale thingy, but could you describe it to me ? I seem to agree with them on many topics, might as well know who they are and where they're from ideologically...

The PLQ isn't remotely leftist in any sense of the word.

I don't even know if the PLQ has ever been leftwing? federalist is really what they cling too...

Option Nationale was created by the MNA Jean-Martin Aussant who left the PQ; they seem to be harder of sovereignty then the PQ (as in if they form government thats their mandate to be a fully automonist country before they hold a referendum on a new constitution) ideologically seems pretty much the shadow of the PQ.
Lise Lapointe is a member, but still sat as an indie;
QS has an agreement with them not to run candidates in each of the leaders ridings (no QS in Nicolet--Yamaska, no ON in Gouin)
Umm thats all i got :)

The PLQ has been centre-left/centrist since the late '30s. Before that they were classical liberals. Remember who nationalized a whole bunch of stuff in the '60s and created Quebec's Medicare program... not the PQ. :P

Legault: longer high school day.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/09/01-4563636-francois-legault-entend-prolonger-les-journees-au-secondaire.php

More Grit tax credits.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/09/01-4563628-le-plq-promet-un-credit-dimpot-pour-investir-dans-le-plan-nord.php?

CLASSE lashes out at the PQ and LBB. Last night about 200 of them tried to start something downtown and were chased away by riot police.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/dossiers/elections-quebecoises/201208/09/01-4563522-la-classe-ecorche-le-pq-et-leo-bureau-blouin.php?

Marois invites disgruntled federalists to vote PQ.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356412/marois-invite-les-federalistes-fatigues-a-rejoindre-le-pq

Charest has a "clear conscience" about reports that the SQ is being used for political purposes. No shame.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-quebec-2012/2012/08/09/003-interruption-filature-reactions.shtml

That Place plugged in the Forum poll and got PQ 61, PLQ 49, CAQ 14, QS 2.

Hatman, are you going to project tomorrow?

Now-a-days centrist at best
... to your point, yup those were changes brought by the Lesage liberals... but the cabinest minister was Rene Levesque... It was the 60s after all, those changes were being made all over the country and back then the PLQ were centre-left. Also a huge reformist mood/gov't that probably liked the idea of tearing apart Duplessis's quebec :P

Why in Quebec do the Conservatives and NDP not run candidates?

Thing of provincial politics in Quebec as being like Scottish politics, but inverted in one very important aspect. Then the PLQ makes sense.

The short answer is, its Quebec :P

I think its a much more complex and complicated answer someone from Quebec might know. Also there is a Parti Conservateur (eek conjugation?) thats running this time around no?
http://www.particonservateurquebec.org/

... but i've been itching for a return of a NPDQ in some form... which there was one back in the 80-90's i believe (actually led by Henri-Francois Gendron who is a PLQ MNA currently)

I am pretty ignorant about politics in Quebec, but I always wondered why the provincial Liberals considered that the former conservative leader would be their saviour.

well we first have to remember that no Provincial Liberal party anywhere is officially connected to the Liberal Party of Canada

Well in 2003 Charest was their saviour, and has kept them in power for almost 10yrs so he hasn't failed them yet... :P Charest is not your current "Conservative" hes a former Progressive Conservative; much more moderate socially and fiscally then the current Harper Conservatives.

Because the federal and provincial parties are separate and different.
There is no official link between federal and provincial Liberals since the 60's.
The provincial Liberal leader is a former Conservative federal leader.

Tommy: Henri-François Gautrin (Verdun). François Gendron (Abitibi-Ouest) is a PQ MP, the father of House, being an MNA since 1976.

A Forum poll for the National Trash Post, is saying PQ 34 PLQ 32, CAQ 24.

Thanks for the explanation. I knew that the present-day Cons are more right-wing than the old PC, also that QLP and Canadian Liberals are separate parties. Anyways I didn't know that the two liberal parties were so disconnected. For what I'm reading here I don't know even which is the ideology of the Liberal Party of Canada nowadays. Charest's solution worked well for the QLP, it's true, but still it sounds a bit strange for a foreigner like me. 

Gautrin was never involved with any provincial wing of the NDP in Quebec...he was the leader of the Quebec section of the federal NDP back in the 70s when Lewis and then Broadbent were leaders.

If my memory is right, the Quebec section was the provincial wing, then.

Why hasn't the NDP created a Quebecois provincial party for the National Assembly?

They did two times, both times it was took over by nationalists.
And right now, it would only strenghten the right by dividing the left again.

Breaking down the FR poll (change is from 2008 election; CAQ change is from ADQ)

Montreal area
PQ 34 (-2)
PLQ 33 (-11)
CAQ 22 (+11)
QS 7 (+2)
Oth 3 (-1)

Quebec City area
CAQ 37 (+8)
PLQ 35 (-4)
PQ 22 (-5)
QS 3 (n/c)
Oth 2 (+1)

North shore
PQ 36 (-5)
PLQ 34 (-7)
CAQ 21 (+7)
QS 5 (+2)
Oth 3 (+1)

South shore
PQ 39 (+5)  whoa
PLQ 28 (-13)
CAQ 24 (+3)
QS 6 (+3)
Oth 2 (n/c)

CROP: PQ majority were an election held today. PQ 32, PLQ 29, CAQ 21. Among Francophones: PQ 38, PLQ 25, PLQ (!) 18.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/09/01-4563845-une-majorite-a-la-portee-du-pq.php

Charest's approvals in the gutter.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/10/01-4563865-sondage-letoile-de-jean-charest-a-pali.php

Charest could get thumped in his own riding.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/10/01-4563869-sondage-jean-charest-loin-derriere-dans-sherbrooke.php?

PQ joins in on the economic nationalist bandwagon.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356510/le-pq-veut-proteger-les-entreprises-quebecoises

Leger: PQ minority. PQ 32, PLQ 31, CAQ 27. Lots of crosstabs in this one.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356526/la-caq-gagne-six-points-et-brouille-les-cartes

I'm of a mind (as I know much more about Canadian politics at a federal level) that Charest would fit in well with the PLQ, as from what I've heard they sound pretty centrist, and that the basic strategy of the old PC Party was to desperately try and outbid and ape the Liberals, until this strategy finally collapsed in on them.

Leger poll break downs (change fro 2008 election)

Montreal Island ("the 514")
PLQ: 40 (-12)
PQ: 25 (-5)
CAQ: 14 (+8)
QS: 12 (+5)
Oth: 9 (+4)

Montreal suburbs ("the 450")
CAQ: 34 (+19) (holy smokes!)
PQ: 32 (-9)
PLQ: 29 (-9)
QS: 3 (n/c)
Oth: 2 (-1)

Quebec City RMR
CAQ: 37 (+8)
PLQ: 27 (-12)
PQ: 24 (-3)
QS: 4 (+1)
Oth: 8 (+7)

ROQ
PQ: 38 (+1)
PLQ: 28 (-13)
CAQ: 27 (+9)
QS: 4 (+1)
Oth: 4 (+2)

CROP has more ambiguous breakdowns, so I'll just do the 514:

PLQ: 37 (-16)
PQ: 24 (-6)
QS: 15 (+8)
CAQ: 14 (+8)
Oth: 5 (n/c)

Too Close to Call plugs in the CROP numbers and gets PQ 68, PLQ 43, CAQ 14, QS 1.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2012/08/10-aout-2012-sondage-crop-la-presse.html

Hebert: Liberals stalling.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1240373--hebert-quebec-election-2012-momentum-eludes-jean-charest-and-his-liberals

PQ: New Charte in first 100 days.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/12/01-4564420-une-nouvelle-loi-101-dans-les-trois-premiers-mois-promet-le-pq.php

Marois blasts Barrette.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/11/01-4564354-un-ministre-de-la-sante-doit-avoir-de-saines-habitudes-de-vie-dit-marois.php

Charest: lack of demonstrations helps the Grits. Not really.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356627/l-absence-de-manifestations-et-de-violence-profitera-au-plq-selon-charest

Extracts of an upcoming Marois profile.

http://www.lactualite.com/politique/pauline-marois-letoffe-dun-premier-ministre

Teaser! My next prediction will show the following:

PQ: 57
PLQ: 45
CAQ: 17
QS: 2
Ties: 4 (2 PQ-CAQ; 1 PLQ-PQ; 1 PLQ-CAQ)

So, a PQ minority :)

I think things will remain relatively static till the debates. Then the needle starts moving.

It's up: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/08/quebec-2012-election-prediction-map_13.html

I like the shade of blue you've used for CAQ - it differentiates quite nicely from the Aqua/Teal/bluey-green of the PQ.

EDIT: I hope you don't mind - I copied your blue colour scheme into my "shading tones" file, where I keep all those colour schemes in the one handy place.

I bought L'actualite and read the whole profile. Interesting but essentially confirmed my longstanding impression of Marois: an administrator who wants to govern the province. Not a revolutionary or firebrand by any means.

Fun fact: Duceppe wasn't the only one who wanted her job, which complicated his ambition a bit.

Thanks. I was getting complaints that it was hard to distinguish between the two. I also noticed that the PQ doesn't actually use that shade on their site or on their logo, but it seems to be their traditional colour. Oh well.

I'm also having issues with blogger (what else is new?). Whenever I try to edit a post with a table, it removes the table. It making this very difficult... For now, the table is going to have to look like that.

Going to be posting older maps here: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/p/quebec-maps.html so far I have 2007 & 2008.

I made the 1994 and 1998 maps, and I have stuff about boundaries since 1966 (but I haven't traced any base maps from them, because it seems really hard, but if somebody is a winner they should...)

And there's a reason why I use Wordpress, noob ;)

Yes, I know word press is better. Too late now, though :(

I have the 1994 base map, but if you want me to put up your maps, I will.

Happy to work on base maps, over time. Presently working on the 2001 Australian Federal election map. The other feed maps I've completed are in the international gallery. I want to work on some older Canadian federal ones, too.

I dont know Smid, can you convert boundary descriptions into maps? I think that's what Hash has. 

No, no; I have the actual maps (but not in a way which is currently friendly to MS Paint editing).

Why not? Are they individual riding maps?

Marois goes on the language offensive.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/Marois%2Btries%2Btake%2BQuebec%2Bback%2B1970s/7089936/story.html

PQ extends their lead: 35-32-24. PQ would win 68 seats with those numbers.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/08/15/pq-extending-lead-over-charests-quebec-liberals-poll/

Saguenay mayor attacks PQ candidate.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/15/01-4565250-le-maire-de-saguenay-attaque-benhabib-parce-quelle-vient-dalgerie.php?

Charest wants mandatory community service for Grade 11.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356864/jean-charest-veut-rendre-obligatoire-le-benevolat-chez-les-jeunes

Quebec doesn't have community service hours requirements in high school? I didn't know that. 10 hours is a ridiculously tiny amount, though. Ontario has 40 (or was it 35?) hours required to graduate.

And Earl, while the maps are not individual riding maps but rather the lines for the entire province, they're on the Google Earth so a bit tougher to edit (and I don't have time for this kind of stuff).

Yeah, Smid sent me the link. I have traced a google earth screen shot in paint before, but if it's for the entire province, then I'd have to start from scratch. I doubt I will get the time to go that far back in the near future, but it is handy to have for future endeavours.

Some reasons why there is no NPDQ... yet

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Democrats+consider+resurrecting+provincial+party+Quebec/7090600/story.html

In public schools, usually no, but it depends of the programs.
IB does, for example. The strange program I did in middle school, too (10 hours to do in Grade 8 ).

The main problem is than a large part of NDP voters are independantists.

Charest ramps up his personal campaign.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/15/01-4565300-charest-intensifie-sa-campagne-dans-sherbrooke.php

PQ wants more transit funding, especially trains.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/15/01-4565312-pq-le-train-de-lest-et-moins-de-travaux-pour-decongestionner-montreal.php

Max is right, but I would suggest that any federalist NDP supporter in Quebec try and back this new UCQ party.

Any chance of them becoming the de-facto (or official) Quebec provincial wing of the NDP? 

In a word, no.

Just heard that on radio.
CROP poll

PQ 34, PLQ 27, CAQ 25.

Hebert: Harper won't mind a CAQ victory.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1242400--hebert-stephen-harper-won-t-mourn-caq-victory-in-quebec

Landry denounces Legault.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/15/01-4565377-bernard-landry-denonce-larrivisme-de-francois-legault.php

Here's that CROP poll.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/15/01-4565442-legault-prend-de-lelan.php

Charest goes bare-knuckled.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356948/charest-jette-les-gants-le-premier

Well Soft-sovereigntist i suppost; any NDP MP would still have to support the Sherbrooke Declaration but, yes there are some QS members/supporters in the caucus.

UCQ; i just find there are too many fish in the Left0wing sea and QS is more established... but i won't say no completely.

Isn't there always ?... U_U'

PQ, QS, ON. UCQ kinda reminds me of the Therese Casgrain-led PSD back in the '50s.

I get the impression that most left wingers in Quebec are nationalists, so is there a market for left-wing federalists?

... had to look that up :P sounds about right, if the UCQ had been smart they would have worked with QS to work out an agreement like QS & ON have (not to run in the others leaders seat)

Hmmm i don't think its that simple... i think its varying shades of grey more then anything.  Yes i think their is a market but right now you have the PLQ who owns anything federalist, and has been getting away with attracting the "progressive" federalist vote

Yes, but there has to be federalists in Quebec that hate Jean Charest. There is definitely a market for that. There's probably a good 25% of voters that are federalist and will not/wish they had other choices other than to vote for the PLQ.