Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/State Elections => Topic started by: rob in cal on November 15, 2011, 01:06:20 AM



Title: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: rob in cal on November 15, 2011, 01:06:20 AM
It just turned November 15 in Wisconsin, and the recall campaign against Scott Walker has officially started.  I wonder if they will get the 500 k signatures they need, thats a big number.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: rob in cal on November 18, 2011, 11:39:26 AM
As of yesterday, a spokesperson said that they have 50k signatures so far.  One would think that the first wave of signatures would be easiest to get, but then again this is during the week, without big weekend events yet.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 18, 2011, 07:39:48 PM
I would imagine that between Milwaukee and Madison, finding 500,000 people willing to sign a recall petition would be pretty easy.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Niemeyerite on November 18, 2011, 08:43:58 PM
I think they'll be able to collect 1 M signatures.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: rob in cal on November 19, 2011, 04:01:46 PM
I'd be interested in hearing from people in Wisconsin about what they've seen so far on the ground.  Is there a noticeable presence of petitioners all over the place?  Are random people talking about it?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on November 19, 2011, 08:53:31 PM
Four days, 100k signatures, so they say. (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/feingold-signs-walker-recall-petition-to-kick-off-madison-rally-pu34cfr-134174313.html)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: rob in cal on November 29, 2011, 12:09:43 PM
Now organizers claim 300k signatures.  Looks like they are going to make it.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: HST1948 on November 29, 2011, 01:10:48 PM
As much as I dislike Walker, I think that recalling him is a very bad idea for Democrats.  TBH Walker is just not that unpopular, and we (Democrats) will probably face an embarrassing loss if he goes to the ballot.  I kind of just wish we could end this story with our win on Ohio Issue 2 last month.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 29, 2011, 02:18:57 PM
As much as I dislike Walker, I think that recalling him is a very bad idea for Democrats.  TBH Walker is just not that unpopular, and we (Democrats) will probably face an embarrassing loss if he goes to the ballot.  I kind of just wish we could end this story with our win on Ohio Issue 2 last month.

Hmm, we're in agreement on the recall. Though I staunchly oppose the idea of recalls and direct democracy (exception is if it involves independence or fundamental constitutional changes) generally, regardless of the country or circumstance.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on November 29, 2011, 05:35:23 PM
Recalling Walker: An idea that is both bad and stale.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on November 29, 2011, 10:30:57 PM
Wisconsin is going to be an interesting state next year-a competitive presidential race, a competitive Senate race, and now a competitive gubernatorial race (or not--Walker could very well make it out unscathed)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 29, 2011, 10:33:19 PM
Yeah, Walker is not unpopular, just polarizing from the last polling I saw.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on November 29, 2011, 11:29:10 PM
Has the potential to be a nail-biter. Would be interesting to see who the Democrats field. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Iosif on December 01, 2011, 10:01:28 AM
They should have the recall election the same day as the Presidential election.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 01, 2011, 11:17:34 AM
They should have the recall election the same day as the Presidential election.

I assumed it would be, adding to what will already be a chaotic election season.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Meeker on December 01, 2011, 12:49:22 PM
I think it has to be scheduled for sometime this spring because of when they're turning the signatures in.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on January 17, 2012, 03:58:13 PM
1,000,000 signatures!!!


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on January 17, 2012, 04:07:52 PM
In comparison Scott Walker got 1,128,941 votes in his election in 2010.
- 24% of all eligible voters in Wisconsin
- 29% of all registered voters in Wisconsin
- 45% of all actual 2010 voters in Wisconsin


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Ban my account ffs! on January 17, 2012, 06:14:20 PM
I liked this comment left on the Star Tribune website under the petition story:

When Governor Walker was elected, his first act was to have "Open For Business" signs affixed to the "Welcome to Wisconsin" signs at the Minnesota border. At the time, both states had 8 percent unemployment. Governor Walker's second act was to give Wisconsin corporations $450 million in tax cuts and give-aways. Currently (a full year later), Wisconsin's unemployment rate is 7.7%. Minnesota's unemployment rate is 5.9%. "Open For Business" indeed!


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 17, 2012, 06:52:45 PM
A great day in the ongoing fight against stupidity.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on January 17, 2012, 08:53:44 PM
So, who's the likely nominee to challenge Walker?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: CultureKing on January 18, 2012, 02:39:56 AM
So, who's the likely nominee to challenge Walker?

Feingold!?!!
:P

Sorry I felt one of the liberals had to lead the stampede.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on January 18, 2012, 02:41:55 AM
Wow, definitely tougher than California, where the recall only needed 900,000 signatures or about 2.5% of the population.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on January 18, 2012, 02:45:24 AM
Hey, something I can go lit-dropping for. I love lit-dropping and am disappointed that I won't have any real competitive races this year to work on. I'll probably have to go to the suburbs to work on state legislative races.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on January 18, 2012, 11:28:12 AM
So if Walker wins, can't they just turn around and get another million signatures and recall him again? And if they lose that, a 3rd time?

Nothing in the GAB website seems to have prohibited such.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Bacon King on January 18, 2012, 02:04:02 PM
()


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on January 18, 2012, 07:20:25 PM
So if Walker wins, can't they just turn around and get another million signatures and recall him again? And if they lose that, a 3rd time?

Nothing in the GAB website seems to have prohibited such.

Nope, you can only be up for a recall election once during your term. I think that it's in the state constitution.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on January 25, 2012, 09:33:34 AM
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

The poll finds Walker ahead of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by a 50 percent to 44 percent margin. Walker leads the only announced Democratic candidate, former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, with a 49 percent to 42 percent margin. Walker leads former Congressman David Obey by 49 percent to 43 percent. Janesville Democratic State Senator Tim Cullen receives 40 percent to Walker’s 50 percent.




74 percent favored and 22 percent opposed requiring state workers to pay more for pension and health benefits
66 percent favored and 32 percent opposed the state’s new voter ID law





Lol, dominating.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 25, 2012, 01:57:07 PM
Terrible poll.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on January 25, 2012, 01:58:42 PM
Cmon Feingold, don't let us down.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on January 25, 2012, 02:20:58 PM

If a loser could take down Scott Walker, Barrett would be doing better.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: DrScholl on January 25, 2012, 02:25:24 PM
First off, I wouldn't start counting chickens, the election is still a good way off and it is just like a regular election where noting is guaranteed. The ads aren't even up yet and Republicans clearly think they can win this without doing any work, which only serves to work in the opposition's favor.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on January 25, 2012, 02:29:26 PM
First off, I wouldn't start counting chickens, the election is still a good way off and it is just like a regular election where noting is guaranteed. The ads aren't even up yet and Republicans clearly think they can win this without doing any work, which only serves to work in the opposition's favor.

Uh, they don't think that at all; Scott Walker has been on a fundraising bonanza preparing for this recall.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Joe Republic on January 25, 2012, 03:05:50 PM
Scott Walker has been on a fundraising bonanza preparing for this recall.

Quote from: http://news.yahoo.com/wis-governor-fights-recall-state-cash-203752994.html

An Associated Press analysis of campaign finance reports Republican Gov. Scott Walker filed Monday showed 61 percent of the $4.1 million he raised during the five-week reporting period came from out of state.

Many of the contributions came from big donors, including $250,000 from conservative Texas financier Bob Perry and a total of $750,000 from three people in Missouri. More than half of Walker's money came from people who donated $20,000 or more, such as Michael Bidwill, president of the NFL's Arizona Cardinals, who gave $25,000.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on January 25, 2012, 03:48:36 PM
Looks like a poll from outtah nowhere.  Does Marquette have a very good track record?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Ljube on February 01, 2012, 04:02:56 PM
This could make Wisconsin competitive in presidential election, if Walker survives.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 01, 2012, 05:12:24 PM
Looks like a poll from outtah nowhere.  Does Marquette have a very good track record?

Uni poll


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on February 01, 2012, 07:23:25 PM
http://elections.wispolitics.com/2012/02/cullen-drops-out-of-guv-race.html

State Sen. Tim Cullen announced this afternoon that he is dropping out of the guv's race.

He said he cannot raise the $1 million to $2 million he believes is needed to deliver his message against other candidates with more resources and better name recognition.

Cullen's latest campaign finance report showed he had just $26,299 in the bank at the end of 2011 after raising just $157 over the six-month period.





$157.....lol.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on February 28, 2012, 02:56:15 PM
Walker's approvals are back underwater.

47%-52%


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_022812.pdf


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Alcon on February 29, 2012, 02:55:59 AM
It's pretty impressive that a full 94% of people who disapprove of Walker want him recalled, and yet his disapproval is only a few points underwater.  That is one polarized electorate.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on February 29, 2012, 11:15:51 AM
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_governor_elections/wisconsin/54_in_wisconsin_oppose_recall_of_gop_governor_walker

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 52% of Likely Wisconsin Voters at least somewhat approve of Walker’s job performance to date, while 46% at least somewhat disapprove. These findings include 40% who Strongly Approve of how the Republican governor is doing and just as many (40%) who Strongly Disapprove.


Looking good.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on February 29, 2012, 12:38:20 PM
It's pretty impressive that a full 94% of people who disapprove of Walker want him recalled, and yet his disapproval is only a few points underwater.  That is one polarized electorate.

Thank you Scott Walker!

Based off of PPP, the far superior polling outfit, it looks like his negatives are going back up and Independents view him negatively at 43-55. Its going to be really close when it is all said and done. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on February 29, 2012, 12:44:22 PM
Sadly, I think this will be close enough so that Waukesha county officials can pull out a "win" for Scott Walker.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on February 29, 2012, 01:22:47 PM
Sadly, I think this will be close enough so that Waukesha county officials can pull out a "win" for Scott Walker.

Unfortunately I think you're right.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Ike56 on February 29, 2012, 02:01:02 PM
Good Lord!  People are not seriously still stuck on the idea that Waukesha Co. actually created votes to save Judge Prosser, are they?  The appropriate response to this nonsense is to say that the Twin Cities machine managed to pull Franken across the line.  Tit for tat, guys...

Walker will win or lose on his own merits. Nothing more, nothing less.  If Waukesha has any say in pulling him across the line, it won't be any more than if Dane did the same for the Democrat.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Alcon on February 29, 2012, 02:13:27 PM
Has there even been any serious analysis that concluded that Waukesha County was sketchy, as opposed to incompetent?  I recall pretty convincing arguments that Waukesha County's results looked consistent, didn't exhibit non-randomness, etc.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on February 29, 2012, 02:18:30 PM
Has there even been any serious analysis that concluded that Waukesha County was sketchy, as opposed to incompetent?  I recall pretty convincing arguments that Waukesha County's results looked consistent, didn't exhibit non-randomness, etc.

I don't think there has been, but I would guess it's incompetence. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Alcon on February 29, 2012, 02:24:25 PM
Has there even been any serious analysis that concluded that Waukesha County was sketchy, as opposed to incompetent?  I recall pretty convincing arguments that Waukesha County's results looked consistent, didn't exhibit non-randomness, etc.

I don't think there has been, but I would guess it's incompetence. 

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/08/vote-counting-error-in-wisconsin-points-to-incompetence-not-conspiracy/


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on February 29, 2012, 02:28:06 PM
It's pretty impressive that a full 94% of people who disapprove of Walker want him recalled, and yet his disapproval is only a few points underwater.  That is one polarized electorate.

Thank you Scott Walker!

Based off of PPP, the far superior polling outfit, it looks like his negatives are going back up and Independents view him negatively at 43-55. Its going to be really close when it is all said and done. 

Lol, as if! Just a couple days ago PPP was blabbering about the Santorum surge in Michigan and polled Romney at a mere +17 in Arizona. Whoops.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: DrScholl on February 29, 2012, 02:35:26 PM
Interesting that Rasmussen chose not to poll any head to head challenges or not release them. There is no "Yes" or "No" option on the recall, so what counts is the actually head to heads.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 29, 2012, 02:54:31 PM
It's pretty impressive that a full 94% of people who disapprove of Walker want him recalled, and yet his disapproval is only a few points underwater.  That is one polarized electorate.

Thank you Scott Walker!

Based off of PPP, the far superior polling outfit, it looks like his negatives are going back up and Independents view him negatively at 43-55. Its going to be really close when it is all said and done. 

Lol, as if! Just a couple days ago PPP was blabbering about the Santorum surge in Michigan and polled Romney at a mere +17 in Arizona. Whoops.

Yes, their primary polling being like three or four points off during a season specifically notable for bizarre shifts in momentum at the drop of a hat is clearly indicative of fundamental unreliability, as opposed to Rasmussen, which has never exhibited consistent bias towards Republican candidates and causes, right? Right?

We can cherry-pick dropped balls all we like but the fact remains that PPP's methodology and business ethics as a polling firm, taken as a whole, beat Rasmussen's by a country mile.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on February 29, 2012, 03:00:14 PM
It's pretty impressive that a full 94% of people who disapprove of Walker want him recalled, and yet his disapproval is only a few points underwater.  That is one polarized electorate.

Thank you Scott Walker!

Based off of PPP, the far superior polling outfit, it looks like his negatives are going back up and Independents view him negatively at 43-55. Its going to be really close when it is all said and done. 

Lol, as if! Just a couple days ago PPP was blabbering about the Santorum surge in Michigan and polled Romney at a mere +17 in Arizona. Whoops.

Yes, their primary polling being like three or four points off during a season specifically notable for bizarre shifts in momentum at the drop of a hat is clearly indicative of fundamental unreliability, as opposed to Rasmussen, which has never exhibited consistent bias towards Republican candidates and causes, right? Right?

We can cherry-pick dropped balls all we like but the fact remains that PPP's methodology and business ethics as a polling firm, taken as a whole, beat Rasmussen's by a country mile.

The most recent polling shows that Rasmussen has put up solid results.

Other pollsters did better than PPP in the Michigan/Arizona primaries. I wonder why some people have a problem with that.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 29, 2012, 03:05:39 PM
It's pretty impressive that a full 94% of people who disapprove of Walker want him recalled, and yet his disapproval is only a few points underwater.  That is one polarized electorate.

Thank you Scott Walker!

Based off of PPP, the far superior polling outfit, it looks like his negatives are going back up and Independents view him negatively at 43-55. Its going to be really close when it is all said and done. 

Lol, as if! Just a couple days ago PPP was blabbering about the Santorum surge in Michigan and polled Romney at a mere +17 in Arizona. Whoops.

Yes, their primary polling being like three or four points off during a season specifically notable for bizarre shifts in momentum at the drop of a hat is clearly indicative of fundamental unreliability, as opposed to Rasmussen, which has never exhibited consistent bias towards Republican candidates and causes, right? Right?

We can cherry-pick dropped balls all we like but the fact remains that PPP's methodology and business ethics as a polling firm, taken as a whole, beat Rasmussen's by a country mile.

The most recent polling shows that Rasmussen has put up solid results.

Other pollsters did better than PPP in the Michigan/Arizona primaries. I wonder why some people have a problem with that.

The most recent polling in what races? I'm entirely willing to accept that Rasmussen might have significantly better methodology for Republican primaries, since it's a right-leaning company and PPP is a left-leaning one even though it has a very slight Republican bias in general election races.

I don't have a problem with it. I just don't see what it has to do with polling approval ratings in anticipation of a recall election in Wisconsin.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Alcon on February 29, 2012, 03:40:09 PM
It's pretty impressive that a full 94% of people who disapprove of Walker want him recalled, and yet his disapproval is only a few points underwater.  That is one polarized electorate.

Thank you Scott Walker!

Based off of PPP, the far superior polling outfit, it looks like his negatives are going back up and Independents view him negatively at 43-55. Its going to be really close when it is all said and done. 

Lol, as if! Just a couple days ago PPP was blabbering about the Santorum surge in Michigan and polled Romney at a mere +17 in Arizona. Whoops.

Especially with the absentee ballots issue, Michigan was only a moderate mess-up...and polling Romney +17 in Arizona when it turned out Romney +20.5 is fine.

Of course, either way, using the last two data points (with no reason to believe they should have any different import than previous data points) is a problem in and of itself.

PPP, for instance, messed up Arizona less than anyone did (chronology issues conceded)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on February 29, 2012, 03:49:12 PM
The most recent polling in what races? I'm entirely willing to accept that Rasmussen might have significantly better methodology for Republican primaries, since it's a right-leaning company and PPP is a left-leaning one even though it has a very slight Republican bias in general election races.

I don't have a problem with it. I just don't see what it has to do with polling approval ratings in anticipation of a recall election in Wisconsin.

Well, for instance, Rasmussen was Romney +16 in the Florida primary. PPP's final Florida Primary poll that I have found was Romney +8. Given how the actual results were Romney +14, it seems to be like Rasmussen was closer.

Seems to me like the best mechanism to judge polling is accuracy to actual results. Recent results are of course Republican primary results. Meanwhile, Rasmussen's results in other polls (see Kaine, Allen) have been more or less the same as everyone else's.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 29, 2012, 03:53:35 PM
But do you understand that there are qualitative difference in general versus primary election polling and Rasmussen hasn't had immensely good general election polling for several years?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on February 29, 2012, 04:20:43 PM
But do you understand that there are qualitative difference in general versus primary election polling and Rasmussen hasn't had immensely good general election polling for several years?

Certainly. And soon enough we will have results. Of course in Wisconsin, numerous pollsters have shown Thompson dominating Baldwin. PPP is what you call an outlier!!!!!


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 29, 2012, 04:39:43 PM
But do you understand that there are qualitative difference in general versus primary election polling and Rasmussen hasn't had immensely good general election polling for several years?

Certainly. And soon enough we will have results. Of course in Wisconsin, numerous pollsters have shown Thompson dominating Baldwin. PPP is what you call an outlier!!!!!

I honestly don't think PPP or Rasmussen are especially good touchstones at the moment. I can't think of a single major polling firm that is right now, so I've become a big fan of weighted averages lately. I also think the Thompson/Baldwin race might be tricky to poll as a function of how bland Thompson is, but obviously that could as easily be a problem with PPP as with the other pollsters.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 30, 2012, 02:39:10 PM
It's set for June 5th.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nhoj on March 30, 2012, 07:00:42 PM
Tom Barrett is in.
http://www.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/barrett31-mk4qdt3-145223335.html


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on March 30, 2012, 08:03:18 PM
Tom Barrett is in.
http://www.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/barrett31-mk4qdt3-145223335.html

:)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Rowan on March 30, 2012, 08:07:32 PM
D+1


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Zioneer on March 30, 2012, 09:53:54 PM
Tom Barrett is in.
http://www.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/barrett31-mk4qdt3-145223335.html

So from what I understand, Barrett's a centrist type, right? Not nearly at the caliber of Feingold, but at least center-left?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: tmthforu94 on March 31, 2012, 04:52:21 PM
Sounds like Falk has the union support locked up, and certainly could pull off the upset here. Would rather Walker face her than Barrett, as I don't think she'd be as strong of a candidate.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: I'm JewCon in name only. on March 31, 2012, 07:00:46 PM
I'm pulling for Governor Walker, he's been a pretty decent governor so far. (Not as good as Kasich or Snyder, but still pretty good.)



Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Zioneer on April 01, 2012, 12:04:24 AM
I'm pulling for Governor Walker, he's been a pretty decent governor so far. (Not as good as Kasich or Snyder, but still pretty good.)



What? Scott Walker, a decent governor? What has he done right, at all? I can understand liking his going head to head with the unions (since you seem to be a Republican), but other than that, what good has he done?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: rbt48 on April 01, 2012, 12:20:43 AM
Well, FWIW (probably not much), I support Walker, too.  He tried to rein in the power of public unions and act in the interests of taxpayers. 

Further, I think recalls for differences in policies are inappropriate and laws should be changed to cease them from being an option to remove an elected official.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: redcommander on April 01, 2012, 02:32:15 AM
I'm pulling for Governor Walker, he's been a pretty decent governor so far. (Not as good as Kasich or Snyder, but still pretty good.)



What? Scott Walker, a decent governor? What has he done right, at all? I can understand liking his going head to head with the unions (since you seem to be a Republican), but other than that, what good has he done?

He's balanced Wisconsin's budget.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 01, 2012, 03:12:41 AM
I'm pulling for Governor Walker, he's been a pretty decent governor so far. (Not as good as Kasich or Snyder, but still pretty good.)



What? Scott Walker, a decent governor? What has he done right, at all? I can understand liking his going head to head with the unions (since you seem to be a Republican), but other than that, what good has he done?

He's balanced Wisconsin's budget.

And at what cost?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: morgieb on April 01, 2012, 03:25:50 AM
Quote from: redcommander link=topic=143831.msg3250093#msg3250093 https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/IMG/english/quote.gifdate=1333265535
I'm pulling for Governor Walker, he's been a pretty decent governor so far. (Not as good as Kasich or Snyder, but still pretty good.)



What? Scott Walker, a decent governor? What has he done right, at all? I can understand liking his going head to head with the unions (since you seem to be a Republican), but other than that, what good has he done?

He's balanced Wisconsin's budget.

And at what cost?

But come on. It doesn't matter if there's no services in that state, the budget is still clean.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: DrScholl on April 02, 2012, 01:52:08 PM
Majority wants Walker recalled

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/wisconsin/52_in_wisconsin_support_recall_of_governor_walker

A new Rasmussen Reports statewide survey shows that, if the recall election was held today, 52% of Likely Voters would vote to recall Governor Walker and remove him from office. Forty-seven percent (47%) would vote against the recall and let him continue to serve as governor.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Miles on April 02, 2012, 02:25:50 PM
Majority wants Walker recalled

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/wisconsin/52_in_wisconsin_support_recall_of_governor_walker

A new Rasmussen Reports statewide survey shows that, if the recall election was held today, 52% of Likely Voters would vote to recall Governor Walker and remove him from office. Forty-seven percent (47%) would vote against the recall and let him continue to serve as governor.


That's very good news, considering the source.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on April 02, 2012, 08:39:59 PM
I'm pulling for Governor Walker, he's been a pretty decent governor so far. (Not as good as Kasich or Snyder, but still pretty good.)



What? Scott Walker, a decent governor? What has he done right, at all? I can understand liking his going head to head with the unions (since you seem to be a Republican), but other than that, what good has he done?

He's balanced Wisconsin's budget.

And at what cost?

Not much at all, unless you're a butthurt union.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 03, 2012, 12:38:59 AM
I'm pulling for Governor Walker, he's been a pretty decent governor so far. (Not as good as Kasich or Snyder, but still pretty good.)



What? Scott Walker, a decent governor? What has he done right, at all? I can understand liking his going head to head with the unions (since you seem to be a Republican), but other than that, what good has he done?

He's balanced Wisconsin's budget.

And at what cost?

Not much at all, unless you're a butthurt union.

Yes, like a lot of working people in Wisconsin.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on April 03, 2012, 02:43:12 AM
Majority wants Walker recalled

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/wisconsin/52_in_wisconsin_support_recall_of_governor_walker

A new Rasmussen Reports statewide survey shows that, if the recall election was held today, 52% of Likely Voters would vote to recall Governor Walker and remove him from office. Forty-seven percent (47%) would vote against the recall and let him continue to serve as governor.


Don't let the door hit you on the ass on the way out, Scott.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Napoleon on April 03, 2012, 02:48:40 AM
Recall is a waste of time and money. Safe Walker. Feingold was the only shot.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Zioneer on April 03, 2012, 12:18:49 PM
I'm pulling for Governor Walker, he's been a pretty decent governor so far. (Not as good as Kasich or Snyder, but still pretty good.)



What? Scott Walker, a decent governor? What has he done right, at all? I can understand liking his going head to head with the unions (since you seem to be a Republican), but other than that, what good has he done?

He's balanced Wisconsin's budget.

And at what cost?

Not much at all, unless you're a butthurt union.

You do realize that the unions had already agreed to Walker's budget cuts, and only went up in arms when he restricted collective bargaining, right? Because that's what happened. It isn't the budget that's the issue.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on April 03, 2012, 08:06:31 PM
I'm pulling for Governor Walker, he's been a pretty decent governor so far. (Not as good as Kasich or Snyder, but still pretty good.)



What? Scott Walker, a decent governor? What has he done right, at all? I can understand liking his going head to head with the unions (since you seem to be a Republican), but other than that, what good has he done?

He's balanced Wisconsin's budget.

And at what cost?

Not much at all, unless you're a butthurt union.

You do realize that the unions had already agreed to Walker's budget cuts, and only went up in arms when he restricted collective bargaining, right? Because that's what happened. It isn't the budget that's the issue.

Certainly then, the cost was not much at all, was it?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 04, 2012, 12:16:27 AM
I'm pulling for Governor Walker, he's been a pretty decent governor so far. (Not as good as Kasich or Snyder, but still pretty good.)



What? Scott Walker, a decent governor? What has he done right, at all? I can understand liking his going head to head with the unions (since you seem to be a Republican), but other than that, what good has he done?

He's balanced Wisconsin's budget.

And at what cost?

Not much at all, unless you're a butthurt union.

You do realize that the unions had already agreed to Walker's budget cuts, and only went up in arms when he restricted collective bargaining, right? Because that's what happened. It isn't the budget that's the issue.

Certainly then, the cost was not much at all, was it?


The cost came in the life and pride of the working people of Wisconsin, which is bound up in collective bargaining. Unless you're playing dumb or sincerely believe that 'cost' is a solely budgetary term.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 04, 2012, 01:54:37 AM
I'm pulling for Governor Walker, he's been a pretty decent governor so far. (Not as good as Kasich or Snyder, but still pretty good.)



What? Scott Walker, a decent governor? What has he done right, at all? I can understand liking his going head to head with the unions (since you seem to be a Republican), but other than that, what good has he done?

He's balanced Wisconsin's budget.

And at what cost?

Not much at all, unless you're a butthurt union.

You do realize that the unions had already agreed to Walker's budget cuts, and only went up in arms when he restricted collective bargaining, right? Because that's what happened. It isn't the budget that's the issue.

Certainly then, the cost was not much at all, was it?


The cost came in the life and pride of the working people of Wisconsin, which is bound up in collective bargaining. Unless you're playing dumb or sincerely believe that 'cost' is a solely budgetary term.

He is not playing. He is the real deal.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 04, 2012, 10:50:47 AM
Why are Republicans still pushing the anti-union nonsense after the Ohio vote?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on April 04, 2012, 11:48:17 AM
The cost came in the life and pride of the working people of Wisconsin, which is bound up in collective bargaining. Unless you're playing dumb or sincerely believe that 'cost' is a solely budgetary term.

Who are these people who lost their life and pride that was formerly 'bound up' in collective bargaining for certain public sector unions?

Particularly life!


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: TJ in Oregon on April 04, 2012, 11:50:07 AM
Why are Republicans still pushing the anti-union nonsense after the Ohio vote?

Wisconsin is not Ohio and the Wisconsin law came before the Ohio one. While Ohio voters have clearly renounced our union bill, the voters of Wisconsin haven't really done that. Most of the recalls resulted in the candidate simply being re-elected, with the exception of a Republican who held a seat a Republican shouldn't be able to hold and a sex scandal-ridden incumbent.

There was a point in Ohio where most Republicans wouldn't touch Kasich (though he's rebounded quite a bit since). The only thing that seems to have happened in Wisconsin is more polarization.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 04, 2012, 04:31:27 PM
The cost came in the life and pride of the working people of Wisconsin, which is bound up in collective bargaining. Unless you're playing dumb or sincerely believe that 'cost' is a solely budgetary term.

Who are these people who lost their life and pride that was formerly 'bound up' in collective bargaining for certain public sector unions?

Particularly life!

Sorry. I meant 'way of' life, not that the people were literally killed. I thought this would be obvious, but I keep forgetting you're not one for appreciating any kind of linguistic nuance.

I am referring, of course, to cops, teachers, and firefighters, who have lost their right to negotiate on any kind of even ground for work conditions or benefits; to the private sector unions who are justifiably afraid that they might be next considering the kind of vile rhetoric being spewed from certain quarters on the Right; and those people in Wisconsin who might not have a personal interest or stake but who are simply rightly proud of their state's union and labor history.

Of course, it's pretty clear that you don't understand why one would care a jot about groups that one isn't directly part of, so you will, of course, continue to levy the rhetoric of tax-based spite against groups that almost certainly do more for society than whatever it is that you do.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on April 04, 2012, 05:25:39 PM
Recall is a waste of time and money. Safe Walker. Feingold was the only shot.

Well if Rassy even says that the state wants Walker recalled, I think it's fair to assume Feingold isn't the only chance the Dems got.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on April 04, 2012, 05:51:13 PM
The cost came in the life and pride of the working people of Wisconsin, which is bound up in collective bargaining. Unless you're playing dumb or sincerely believe that 'cost' is a solely budgetary term.

Who are these people who lost their life and pride that was formerly 'bound up' in collective bargaining for certain public sector unions?

Particularly life!

Sorry. I meant 'way of' life, not that the people were literally killed. I thought this would be obvious, but I keep forgetting you're not one for appreciating any kind of linguistic nuance.

I am referring, of course, to cops, teachers, and firefighters, who have lost their right to negotiate on any kind of even ground for work conditions or benefits; to the private sector unions who are justifiably afraid that they might be next considering the kind of vile rhetoric being spewed from certain quarters on the Right; and those people in Wisconsin who might not have a personal interest or stake but who are simply rightly proud of their state's union and labor history.

Of course, it's pretty clear that you don't understand why one would care a jot about groups that one isn't directly part of, so you will, of course, continue to levy the rhetoric of tax-based spite against groups that almost certainly do more for society than whatever it is that you do.


The legislation that Scott Walker signed exempts police and firemen from many of its provisions. So you're at best 1 for 3 before you start getting into amusing hypotheticals.

One wonders whether these people are also justifiably afraid of Obama raising their taxes given the nature of the vile rhetoric being spewed from the Left.

I would love to meet someone who is so antagonized by the violation of their 'rightful pride' in this union and labor history. Certainly they must be quite wealthy to be so worried about such things.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 04, 2012, 08:30:51 PM
The cost came in the life and pride of the working people of Wisconsin, which is bound up in collective bargaining. Unless you're playing dumb or sincerely believe that 'cost' is a solely budgetary term.

Who are these people who lost their life and pride that was formerly 'bound up' in collective bargaining for certain public sector unions?

Particularly life!

Sorry. I meant 'way of' life, not that the people were literally killed. I thought this would be obvious, but I keep forgetting you're not one for appreciating any kind of linguistic nuance.

I am referring, of course, to cops, teachers, and firefighters, who have lost their right to negotiate on any kind of even ground for work conditions or benefits; to the private sector unions who are justifiably afraid that they might be next considering the kind of vile rhetoric being spewed from certain quarters on the Right; and those people in Wisconsin who might not have a personal interest or stake but who are simply rightly proud of their state's union and labor history.

Of course, it's pretty clear that you don't understand why one would care a jot about groups that one isn't directly part of, so you will, of course, continue to levy the rhetoric of tax-based spite against groups that almost certainly do more for society than whatever it is that you do.


The legislation that Scott Walker signed exempts police and firemen from many of its provisions. So you're at best 1 for 3 before you start getting into amusing hypotheticals.

Then why did those unions still mobilize against it? Could they possibly have--gasp!--cared about other working people and feared for their own rights on the basis of things happening to others?!


Quote
One wonders whether these people are also justifiably afraid of Obama raising their taxes given the nature of the vile rhetoric being spewed from the Left.

There certainly are people who are afraid of this, possibly for good reason, but one would have to be quite wealthy or quite misinformed to be so considering there's little political will to raise taxes on any other groups than those that can live pretty much anywhere other than San Francisco or Manhattan in concupiscent comfort if they don't blow through their money like Hammer, and besides, the 'right' to be taxed at some arbitrarily low rate does not exist, whereas the right to organize does. Taxes are the weregild we pay to society, and they're refunded in the form of getting to vote for leaders (which you of course also don't support since you're one of the voter-fraud concern trolls if I recall correctly). Including, unfortunately, leaders who rule from corporate boardrooms and prioritize the interests of the useless corporate middleman-class over the useful working and academic classes.

Quote
I would love to meet someone who is so antagonized by the violation of their 'rightful pride' in this union and labor history.

Go to Wisconsin and talk to ten or twelve people and five or six of them would probably be able to explain this to you.

Quote
Certainly they must be quite wealthy to be so worried about such things.

This doesn't even make sense. Serious question: Do you in fact know what a union is or does?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on April 04, 2012, 08:52:25 PM

Then why did those unions still mobilize against it? Could they possibly have--gasp!--cared about other working people and feared for their own rights on the basis of things happening to others?!



Certainly, for the right to mobilize public funding for the benefit of the Democratic party and other chosen politicians.



Quote

There certainly are people who are afraid of this, possibly for good reason, but one would have to be quite wealthy or quite misinformed to be so considering there's little political will to raise taxes on any other groups than those that can live pretty much anywhere other than San Francisco or Manhattan in concupiscent comfort if they don't blow through their money like Hammer, and besides, the 'right' to be taxed at some arbitrarily low rate does not exist, whereas the right to organize does. Taxes are the weregild we pay to society, and they're refunded in the form of getting to vote for leaders (which you of course also don't support since you're one of the voter-fraud concern trolls if I recall correctly). Including, unfortunately, leaders who rule from corporate boardrooms and prioritize the interests of the useless corporate middleman-class over the useful working and academic classes.

Certainly the fear is much better grounded than that. Former governor Jim Doyle of course proposes billions of dollars on tax increases. This of course after he said in 2003 that he would not raise taxes! Taxes and fees, of course, that impact every working citizen and not a select few who happen to live in Dane County and scream a lot because the lavish government benefits they have let them skip work, while real working citizens actually go to work to pay their salaries.

Given that Walker specifically exempted policemen from the union bill, it would be absurd to fear him doing so. Unless of course one has more sinister motives.

There is certainly no established right to collectively bargain with government entities! Great states like Virginia stamped out collective bargaining decades ago and reaped the windfall of their heroic actions.


Quote
This doesn't even make sense. Serious question: Do you in fact know what a union is or does?

Yes, of course. They abuse market power through a loophole in the Sherman act.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on April 11, 2012, 11:24:08 AM
Milwaukee Police and Fire Unions have endorsed Walker. 
Private sector Union members are a little hacked off at Democrats for blocking a hugely popular 'mining' bill that would instantly create thousands of jobs and long term economic wealth in a depressed area of the state (as well as Milwaukee being the mining equipment capitol of the world).  The shameful block of the bill was based on....   democrats blind hate and public unions opposition. 

Falk has almost no chance.
Barrett is the do nothing type of democrat, which tends to be better than the other type.  He may win the primary despite the unions buying Falk.  Which would be another defeat for the unions before the recall election.  Barrett is likely to lose, but even as governor he won't do anything to reverse Walkers actions because they work so well.  Barrett used all of the Walker tools from act 10 in his City budget.  Barrett is a Property tax raiser and Walker is a guy who delivered a Freeze to cut in a tough climate to do so. 

asking a public employee to contribute a small amount to a lavish pension that they GET TO COLLECT FROM at age 55 isn't much to ask.  Millionaire public employees protesting as if they were going to starve to death was an amazing sight.             


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on April 11, 2012, 11:38:10 AM
They only turned in about 800some thousand signatures.  They counted blank lines on a petition page in the million number.  Additionally 200k or more have been identified as probably bogus signatures.  They may have had the 550k they needed.  Hard to find and challenge the bogus ones in the two weeks granted to do so.  Doyle Appointees on the GAB have made consistent ridiculous rulings anyway.  Walker chose to avoid that battle and will instead embarrass democrats nationally.             


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on April 11, 2012, 03:16:45 PM
wow!,

 not paying anything toward your pension = "paying for their pension themselves after all"

and

"deferred compensation" = I get paid after I stop working via "Magic"
No, "deferred compensation", meaning "I'll take some of my salary now, and put some of it into a pension fund instead."


OK I read your link, "Wisconsin taxpayers spent about $12.6 billion on public employee pensions while public employees contributed only $55.4 million." I think that comes out to 0.4%...  wow and 99.6% magically appears. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on April 11, 2012, 03:24:54 PM
Gass3268, So outside of the statehouse not one extremist? ? ?

How about the majority of people in Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington Counties?

You do realize modest adjustments to balance budgets and improve the economy isn't exactly a definition of extreme right?

Yeah but taking away a right is a definition of extremism.

Sigh, Collective Bargaining is not a right, it is a privilege.  Walker gave public employees the privilege to opt out of these belligerent Unions.  I know that expansion of freedom is scary to you, but it is not extremist.  Thinking you have a right from God to Bargain against the taxpayers of Wisconsin IS extremist.

Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington Counties are the most productive, highest tax-paying people in the state, what is extreme about them?      

I guess I'm with Ronald Reagan on this one:
"These are the values inspiring those brave workers in Poland. The values that have inspired other dissidents under Communist domination.  They remind us that where free unions and collective bargaining are forbidden, freedom is lost.  They remind us that freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction.  You and I must protect and preserve freedom here or it will not be passed on to our children.  Today the workers in Poland are showing a new generation not how high is the price of freedom but how much it is worth that price."

Also:

"I happen to be the only president of a union ever to be a candidate for President of the United States.
As president of my union -- the Screen Actors Guild -- I spent many hours with the late George Meany, whose love of this country and whose belief in a strong defense against all totalitarians is one of labor’s greatest legacies. "

http://www.reagan.utexas.edu/archives/reference/9.1.80.html

It's a measure of today's Republican party that it now views defending something Ronald Reagan saw as a bulwark against totalitarianism makes you in to a leftist extremist.

Reagan was probably talking about private sector Unions.  He ordered the air traffic controllers back to work and desertified that Union as I recall.  

I guess I'm with FDR on this one:
"The process of collective bargaining, as usually understood, cannot be transplanted into the public service," Roosevelt wrote in 1937 to the National Federation of Federal Employees. Yes, public workers may demand fair treatment, wrote Roosevelt. But, he wrote, "I want to emphasize my conviction that militant tactics have no place" in the public sector. "A strike of public employees manifests nothing less than an intent on their part to prevent or obstruct the operations of Government."
And the last prominent American Socialist
Frank Zeidler, Milwaukee's mayor in the 1950s and the last card-carrying Socialist to head a major U.S. city, supported labor. But in 1969, the progressive icon wrote that the rise of unions in government work put a competing power in charge of public business next to elected officials. Government unions "can mean considerable loss of control over the budget, and hence over tax rates," he warned.  There was "a revolutionary principle rather quietly at work in American government," he wrote.

I think I heard that 100 decibel principle at work in the Wisconsin capitol last year.  It sounded something like "I will not pay a dime toward my million dollar pension!!!"

Walker's modest shift is to try securing necessary government at a better price. The public unions, whose model depends on making government labor as costly as taxpayers will bear, object.  


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on April 11, 2012, 03:27:04 PM
Gass3268, So outside of the statehouse not one extremist? ? ?

How about the majority of people in Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington Counties?

You do realize modest adjustments to balance budgets and improve the economy isn't exactly a definition of extreme right?

Yeah but taking away a right is a definition of extremism.

Sigh, Collective Bargaining is not a right, it is a privilege.  Walker gave public employees the privilege to opt out of these belligerent Unions.  I know that expansion of freedom is scary to you, but it is not extremist.  Thinking you have a right from God to Bargain against the taxpayers of Wisconsin IS extremist.

Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington Counties are the most productive, highest tax-paying people in the state, what is extreme about them?      

I guess I'm with Ronald Reagan on this one:
"These are the values inspiring those brave workers in Poland. The values that have inspired other dissidents under Communist domination.  They remind us that where free unions and collective bargaining are forbidden, freedom is lost.  They remind us that freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction.  You and I must protect and preserve freedom here or it will not be passed on to our children.  Today the workers in Poland are showing a new generation not how high is the price of freedom but how much it is worth that price."

Also:

"I happen to be the only president of a union ever to be a candidate for President of the United States.
As president of my union -- the Screen Actors Guild -- I spent many hours with the late George Meany, whose love of this country and whose belief in a strong defense against all totalitarians is one of labor’s greatest legacies. "

http://www.reagan.utexas.edu/archives/reference/9.1.80.html

It's a measure of today's Republican party that it now views defending something Ronald Reagan saw as a bulwark against totalitarianism makes you in to a leftist extremist.

Reagan was probably talking about private sector Unions.  He ordered the air traffic controllers back to work and desertified that Union as I recall.  

I guess I'm with FDR on this one:
"The process of collective bargaining, as usually understood, cannot be transplanted into the public service," Roosevelt wrote in 1937 to the National Federation of Federal Employees. Yes, public workers may demand fair treatment, wrote Roosevelt. But, he wrote, "I want to emphasize my conviction that militant tactics have no place" in the public sector. "A strike of public employees manifests nothing less than an intent on their part to prevent or obstruct the operations of Government."
And the last prominent American Socialist
Frank Zeidler, Milwaukee's mayor in the 1950s and the last card-carrying Socialist to head a major U.S. city, supported labor. But in 1969, the progressive icon wrote that the rise of unions in government work put a competing power in charge of public business next to elected officials. Government unions "can mean considerable loss of control over the budget, and hence over tax rates," he warned.  There was "a revolutionary principle rather quietly at work in American government," he wrote.

I think I heard that 100 decibel principle at work in the Wisconsin capitol last year.  It sounded something like "I will not pay a dime toward my million dollar pension!!!"

Walker's modest shift is to try securing necessary government at a better price. The public unions, whose model depends on making government labor as costly as taxpayers will bear, object.  


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on April 11, 2012, 03:31:50 PM
wow!,

 not paying anything toward your pension = "paying for their pension themselves after all"

and

"deferred compensation" = I get paid after I stop working via "Magic"
No, "deferred compensation", meaning "I'll take some of my salary now, and put some of it into a pension fund instead."


OK I read your link, "From Governor Walker’s standpoint, however, it’s an issue of equity. From 2000 to 2009, the governor says, Wisconsin taxpayers spent about $12.6 billion on public employee pensions while public employees contributed only $55.4 million.

" I think that comes out to 0.4%...  wow and 99.6% magically appears. 
Fixed your quote from the stateline.org piece. From the Forbes (Forbes, mind you!) piece, citing a piece on tax.com:

"Gov. Scott Walker says he wants state workers covered by collective bargaining agreements to “contribute more” to their pension and health insurance plans. Accepting Gov. Walker’ s assertions as fact, and failing to check, creates the impression that somehow the workers are getting something extra, a gift from taxpayers. They are not. Out of every dollar that funds Wisconsin’ s pension and health insurance plans for state workers, 100 cents comes from the state workers."

Where did you find that? and how would it be possible for the employees to be "fully funding 100 %" and the state simultaneously paying 99.6% AND the new contribution from the walker reforms covers 50% ? ? ? ? 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on April 11, 2012, 03:40:45 PM
http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/walker-challenger-tom-barrett-sought-to-weaken-uni
Walker Challenger Tom Barrett Sought To Weaken Unions In Milwaukee
In a proposal obtained by BuzzFeed, the city of Milwaukee looked to end collective bargaining on overtime hours and pensions. “Collective bargaining at work,” says Barrett spokesman.

LOL! ! !, WOW. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on April 11, 2012, 05:28:58 PM
Urgent memo to AmericanNation: Who are you talking to? :P


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on April 11, 2012, 05:32:55 PM
I moved the stuff over from a different thread. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on April 13, 2012, 08:38:44 AM
Additionally 200k or more have been identified as probably bogus signatures.

O RLY?

Anyway, Dems seem to be setting up a circular firing squad here...


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on April 13, 2012, 08:54:08 AM
Additionally 200k or more have been identified as probably bogus signatures.

O RLY?

Anyway, Dems seem to be setting up a circular firing squad here...

Yea, a volunteer army has been examining the petitions on an online database.  Scot Walker signed it 50 times, daffy duck, mickey mouse, etc.  MANY people signed more than once, some weren't filled out properly, some forgery's were discovered... you get the picture.  They probably got enough signatures, but a failure rate approaching 40% is a little troubling.   


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on April 13, 2012, 03:54:54 PM
Additionally 200k or more have been identified as probably bogus signatures.

O RLY?

Anyway, Dems seem to be setting up a circular firing squad here...

Yea, a volunteer army has been examining the petitions on an online database.  Scot Walker signed it 50 times, daffy duck, mickey mouse, etc.  MANY people signed more than once, some weren't filled out properly, some forgery's were discovered... you get the picture.  They probably got enough signatures, but a failure rate approaching 40% is a little troubling.   

Do you have a link to a source that says 200,000 signatures are "probably bogus"?

Not to put too fine a point to it, but it doesn't cost anything for random Republicans to make an outrageous, unsupported claim to undermine the legitimacy of the elections.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on April 13, 2012, 04:26:17 PM
Additionally 200k or more have been identified as probably bogus signatures.

O RLY?

Anyway, Dems seem to be setting up a circular firing squad here...

Yea, a volunteer army has been examining the petitions on an online database.  Scot Walker signed it 50 times, daffy duck, mickey mouse, etc.  MANY people signed more than once, some weren't filled out properly, some forgery's were discovered... you get the picture.  They probably got enough signatures, but a failure rate approaching 40% is a little troubling.    

Do you have a link to a source that says 200,000 signatures are "probably bogus"?

Not to put too fine a point to it, but it doesn't cost anything for random Republicans to make an outrageous, unsupported claim to undermine the legitimacy of the elections.

Maybe the public employee unions did it. That is what they did with the ban mandatory union dues for political campaigns initiative signature gathering effort (as well as banning corporate contributions), without the annual signed written consent of the member, shareholder. They hired folks to sign petitions multiple times, in hopes the petition gatherers would think they had enough valid signatures, when they didn't. But a smart lawyer whom I know is one of the guys behind the curtain, and he did a random cross check, and caught on to the game, so they got more signatures!  

Oh the unions are behind the recall here, so never mind. Of maybe they got desperate, and were running out of time. Or maybe the Koch brothers did it, whom have become one of the Dems favorite demons twins lately. So many theories, so little time.

All roads across the River Styx lead to public employee unions, with the auto company unions in a neighborhood adjacent. :P


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on April 13, 2012, 04:30:21 PM
Additionally 200k or more have been identified as probably bogus signatures.

O RLY?

Anyway, Dems seem to be setting up a circular firing squad here...

Yea, a volunteer army has been examining the petitions on an online database.  Scot Walker signed it 50 times, daffy duck, mickey mouse, etc.  MANY people signed more than once, some weren't filled out properly, some forgery's were discovered... you get the picture.  They probably got enough signatures, but a failure rate approaching 40% is a little troubling.   

Do you have a link to a source that says 200,000 signatures are "probably bogus"?

Not to put too fine a point to it, but it doesn't cost anything for random Republicans to make an outrageous, unsupported claim to undermine the legitimacy of the elections.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:DP_SjjIO6P4J:maciverinstitute.com/2012/03/recall-picture-does-not-clear-up-with-time/+Verify+the+Recall+have+identified+more+than+228000&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
I can't quickly find a detailed report, but you get the idea


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Scottyp65 on April 15, 2012, 03:08:35 PM
They ended up identifying a few that were dropped off, but validated over 900,000.  Only 4 came back with names like Mickey Mouse. 

Most of this effort was Wisconsin based volunteers.  Some support was provided by unions, mostly administrative.  It wasn't a huge amount.  People who try to pass this whole thing off as a process run by big unions are trying to distort the truth.

It will be interesting to see how the primary comes out and the election.  Right now Dems are going at each other a bit between Falk and Barrett.  My sense is that Barrett will win this battle as Falk is a bit too close to the unions.

As for the general election, each party has about 46% absolutely locked in, and the remaining 8% or so will determine the election.  If I had to guess right now, I would think Barrett would win most independents, while I think Walker and Falk would split right now.  Very few people who are on the fence are Walker supporters.  You either love him or hate him.  Having the worst job performance in the nation hurts.  And with layoffs for teachers next year coming May 1, it will only get worse.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on April 16, 2012, 12:51:01 PM
Walker reforms has led to teacher HIRE's.  Teacher Union 'ram job' contract extensions has led to layoffs.  So, proof that Walker is better for education will "get worse" for him.  OK guy.     


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on April 16, 2012, 01:04:08 PM
Scott Walker takes a lead in PPP poll.

Prior listed:



Tom Barrett (D): 45 (49)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 50 (46)
Hari Trivedi (I): 2
Undecided: 3 (3)


Kathleen Falk (D): 43 (48)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 50 (47)
Hari Trivedi (I): 3
Undecided: 3 (5)


Dominating!


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 16, 2012, 01:05:58 PM
You have a profoundly strange definition of 'dominating', did you know that? Do you have some sort of weird psychosexual trait to which that word is relevant or something?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on April 16, 2012, 01:08:42 PM
You have a profoundly strange definition of 'dominating', did you know that? Do you have some sort of weird psychosexual trait to which that word is relevant or something?

Err, what? The word is typically used to describe those who are victorious in competitive contests.

See the following sentence:


Kentucky completes dominating season with national title


In addition it's a nice sound effect in unreal tournament.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 16, 2012, 07:07:07 PM
The word would generally be used to describe victory somewhat more complete than leading by five points in a likely voter poll of a midsummer recall election with a margin of error of about three per cent.

I do apologize for my not particularly tasteful method of insulting you here, though. I'll keep it more collegial in the future.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Scottyp65 on April 17, 2012, 08:02:44 PM
Walker reforms has led to teacher HIRE's.  Teacher Union 'ram job' contract extensions has led to layoffs.  So, proof that Walker is better for education will "get worse" for him.  OK guy.     

You completely missed the point of my comment.  May 1st is when layoffs have to be announced for NEXT year.  This year's education budgets were padded by one time payouts that will be gone next year.  Also, budgets cuts this year were partially paid for from teacher increases in pension payments and health care payments.  That isnt an option next year.  I think you will see thousands of layoffs announced and a bunch of school districts cancel things like art classes, band, sports, etc.  That will be bad for Walker. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on April 18, 2012, 11:25:25 AM
why would districts flush with cash start doing those things?  Walker districts are free to trim more fat from the budgets and some of the contracts of the Union ram job districts will expire and they will have tools....  so, yea you aren't making any sense with your point.  Maybe Union controlled boards will screw over their own members and the kids, but that makes Walker look good not bad.   


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Scottyp65 on April 21, 2012, 10:18:25 AM
why would districts flush with cash start doing those things?  Walker districts are free to trim more fat from the budgets and some of the contracts of the Union ram job districts will expire and they will have tools....  so, yea you aren't making any sense with your point.  Maybe Union controlled boards will screw over their own members and the kids, but that makes Walker look good not bad.   

Flush with cash?  wow.  Where are you living? 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on April 23, 2012, 10:36:22 AM
What would you call an extra BILLION dollars? ?  Every week local newspapers report the local school districts (all over the state) save 1-10 million each just from stopping the WEA trust insurance racket.  What would you call WEAC suppressing it's own survey because it makes the reforms look so favorable? ? Facts and reality is where I'm living.  The state has LESS money and MORE money is in the classroom.  When is the last time that happened?  Answer: never.   Amazing what you can do when you cut a little fat.       


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on April 24, 2012, 05:04:00 PM
Thanks Scotty...

http://www.jsonline.com/business/state-posts-largest-percentage-job-loss-in-us-over-past-year-report-shows-ib54utt-148694855.html


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Scottyp65 on April 25, 2012, 12:52:55 AM
What would you call an extra BILLION dollars? ?  Every week local newspapers report the local school districts (all over the state) save 1-10 million each just from stopping the WEA trust insurance racket.  What would you call WEAC suppressing it's own survey because it makes the reforms look so favorable? ? Facts and reality is where I'm living.  The state has LESS money and MORE money is in the classroom.  When is the last time that happened?  Answer: never.   Amazing what you can do when you cut a little fat.       

During winter when the buildings got cold, schools all over the state tossed bundles of hundred dollar bills in the furnace to warm it up.  I would call an extra billion dollars a figment of your imagination.  Facts and reality?  Yes school districts have downsized their health plans to cheaper plans and it has saved them some money. 
Walkers cuts were somewhere around $800 million.  You honestly believe that school districts have saved over $1.8 Billion from health insurance savings?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on April 27, 2012, 06:30:05 PM
What would you call an extra BILLION dollars? ?  Every week local newspapers report the local school districts (all over the state) save 1-10 million each just from stopping the WEA trust insurance racket.  What would you call WEAC suppressing it's own survey because it makes the reforms look so favorable? ? Facts and reality is where I'm living.  The state has LESS money and MORE money is in the classroom.  When is the last time that happened?  Answer: never.   Amazing what you can do when you cut a little fat.       

During winter when the buildings got cold, schools all over the state tossed bundles of hundred dollar bills in the furnace to warm it up.  I would call an extra billion dollars a figment of your imagination.  Facts and reality?  Yes school districts have downsized their health plans to cheaper plans and it has saved them some money. 
Walkers cuts were somewhere around $800 million.  You honestly believe that school districts have saved over $1.8 Billion from health insurance savings?

1)Act 10 has saved over a billion in less than a year.

2) It isn't in effect in every district.  Particularly the largest districts which have the potential for massive savings. 

3) I'm not sure yet how much of the billion is simply from avoiding the corrupt union-insurance company's price gouging, but it might be 50% or more.       


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Scottyp65 on April 28, 2012, 06:40:02 PM
WEA trust insurance is neither corrupt nor price gouging.  It is expensive because it is good high end insurance.  If you talk to teachers who went from them to a less expensive plan, and they had health issues, they will tell you the new insurance is nowhere near as good.  And yes, it is cheaper.

Do you work on the Walker campaign?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on April 30, 2012, 05:14:05 PM
Scott Walker has raised $13 million since January. The people are rallying behind the great union buster.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/walker-raises-13-million-since-january-8o57q7r-149561525.html

Gov. Scott Walker raised $13 million since January to fight off the recall bid against him, far outdistancing his Democratic challengers and driving home the challenge they will have in beating the Republican incumbent.

Criss-crossing the country on fundraising trips, Walker has raised more than $25 million in total since January 2011 and has $4.8 million in cash on hand - numbers unlike any that have been seen for a political candidate in Wisconsin.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 01, 2012, 12:13:00 AM
Why does the great union buster have to criss-cross the country on his fundraising trips?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on May 01, 2012, 09:03:19 AM
Why does the great union buster have to criss-cross the country on his fundraising trips?

Has to? I don't think he has to, but rather given his rock star status many people outside Wisconsin want to show support for a champion like him. It's certainly prudent to do so for Scott Walker.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 01, 2012, 01:02:22 PM
Why does the great union buster have to criss-cross the country on his fundraising trips?

Has to? I don't think he has to, but rather given his rock star status many people outside Wisconsin want to show support for a champion like him. It's certainly prudent to do so for Scott Walker.

Prudent, yes, but does him not spending his time within the state he's ostensibly governing indicate more concern for Wisconsin or more concern for Scott Walker?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on May 01, 2012, 01:07:44 PM
Why does the great union buster have to criss-cross the country on his fundraising trips?

Has to? I don't think he has to, but rather given his rock star status many people outside Wisconsin want to show support for a champion like him. It's certainly prudent to do so for Scott Walker.

Prudent, yes, but does him not spending his time within the state he's ostensibly governing indicate more concern for Wisconsin or more concern for Scott Walker?
In before Krazen says those two are the same thing.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 01, 2012, 01:52:35 PM
Why does the great union buster have to criss-cross the country on his fundraising trips?

Has to? I don't think he has to, but rather given his rock star status many people outside Wisconsin want to show support for a champion like him. It's certainly prudent to do so for Scott Walker.

Prudent, yes, but does him not spending his time within the state he's ostensibly governing indicate more concern for Wisconsin or more concern for Scott Walker?

It is really odd, but this has become a quasi-national race.  Walker is running against National Unions and the Obama campaign operation...  So, fundraising nation wide is a logical reaction to a Chicago-WashingtonD.C. campaign against you. 

Also, his opponents have the advantage of not needing to "raise" funds for:
1) the lefty media coverage Walker has to overcome
2) SuperPAC (Union) ad campaigns against Walker

The word is the Unions are dumping a few million into ad buys for Falk this last week before the primary.  It will be fascinating to see how much the needle moves on that. 

I am still amazed that these two clowns are the best the dems can muster.  The 47% warriors   
 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on May 01, 2012, 02:03:18 PM
Why does the great union buster have to criss-cross the country on his fundraising trips?

Has to? I don't think he has to, but rather given his rock star status many people outside Wisconsin want to show support for a champion like him. It's certainly prudent to do so for Scott Walker.

Prudent, yes, but does him not spending his time within the state he's ostensibly governing indicate more concern for Wisconsin or more concern for Scott Walker?

Probably the latter. The foremost concern of most politicians is maintaining elected office. The Wisconsin legislative session is of course also over.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on May 01, 2012, 11:00:15 PM
Why does the great union buster have to criss-cross the country on his fundraising trips?

Has to? I don't think he has to, but rather given his rock star status many people outside Wisconsin want to show support for a champion like him. It's certainly prudent to do so for Scott Walker.

Prudent, yes, but does him not spending his time within the state he's ostensibly governing indicate more concern for Wisconsin or more concern for Scott Walker?
In before Krazen says those two are the same thing.
You need to bait the troll to get him to say something like that. Outright calling for it usually doesn't work, or they get banned fast.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Joe Republic on May 02, 2012, 02:42:16 PM
Quote from: http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-05/D9UFOR500.htm

[Walker's] biggest donor was Diane M. Hendricks, founder of Beloit-based American Builders and Contractors Supply Co. Inc. Forbes estimates she's worth $2.8 billion. She gave the governor $500,000. She did not immediately return messages left through her company spokeswoman.

The next two biggest donors were Sheldon Adelson, chief executive officer of the Las Vegas Sands casino, and Richard DeVos, owner of the Orlando Magic basketball team and co-founder of the Amway Corp., a direct-sales company now under the Alticor company umbrella. Both gave Walker $250,000. Attempts to reach them Monday evening were unsuccessful.

Five people each gave Walker $100,000, including John W. Childs, chief executive officer of Boston equity firm J.W. Childs Associates; Warren A. Stephens, chief executive officer of Stephens Inc., a financial management company based in Little Rock, Ark.; Robert Kern, founder of Waukesha, Wis.-based generator manufacturer Generac, and his wife, Patricia Kern; and Patrick G. Ryan, founder of the Ryan Specialty Group, a Chicago brokerage firm.


Walker continues to display his grassroots appeal among ordinary Wisconsin residents.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 02, 2012, 06:50:13 PM
Quote from: http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-05/D9UFOR500.htm

[Walker's] biggest donor was Diane M. Hendricks, founder of Beloit-based American Builders and Contractors Supply Co. Inc. Forbes estimates she's worth $2.8 billion. She gave the governor $500,000. She did not immediately return messages left through her company spokeswoman.

The next two biggest donors were Sheldon Adelson, chief executive officer of the Las Vegas Sands casino, and Richard DeVos, owner of the Orlando Magic basketball team and co-founder of the Amway Corp., a direct-sales company now under the Alticor company umbrella. Both gave Walker $250,000. Attempts to reach them Monday evening were unsuccessful.

Five people each gave Walker $100,000, including John W. Childs, chief executive officer of Boston equity firm J.W. Childs Associates; Warren A. Stephens, chief executive officer of Stephens Inc., a financial management company based in Little Rock, Ark.; Robert Kern, founder of Waukesha, Wis.-based generator manufacturer Generac, and his wife, Patricia Kern; and Patrick G. Ryan, founder of the Ryan Specialty Group, a Chicago brokerage firm.


Walker continues to display his grassroots appeal among ordinary Wisconsin residents.

Umm, yea he does.  Typically you shouldn't criticize the guy with the most grassroots support.  Ignoring the fact that he dominates in that category makes you look silly. 

...Ask a question to yourself like:
"Who has the most grassroots support?"
...Answer:
"Scott Walker"
...Think a thought:
"O, ok I won't pretend that he is weak in that area then."

...I'm trying to think of a single democrat running for state wide office with more grassroots support than Walker...  I don't think there is one. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Joe Republic on May 02, 2012, 08:56:23 PM
Way to miss the point, hoss.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 03, 2012, 11:06:52 AM
What is your point?  The guy needs money to overcome huge institutions and special interests (and their hordes of money) and individuals are willing to write him a check (Most of them in Wisconsin)...  A few of the biggest republican donors in the country have the race on their radar, shocker!  Maybe he shouldn't accept any money and campaign around the state ridding on a horse.     


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nutmeg on May 04, 2012, 11:07:51 PM
Maybe he shouldn't accept any money and campaign around the state ridding on a horse.     

He's fighting and biting and riding on his horse.

He's going the distance.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on May 07, 2012, 10:54:59 PM
My prediction for tomorrow's Democratic Primary:

Tom Barrett 48%
Kathleen Falk 33%
Doug La Follette 11%
Kathleen Vinehout 8% 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 08, 2012, 08:19:08 PM
So far Barrett is winning Dane County by 2-1. Curbstomp.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on May 08, 2012, 08:33:29 PM
Looks like I over valued La Follette and Vinehout.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nhoj on May 08, 2012, 08:35:27 PM
So far Barrett is winning Dane County by 2-1. Curbstomp.
Yep, falk actually seems to be doing best in the rural outstate counties for whatever reason.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Beet on May 08, 2012, 08:37:31 PM
Based on the results I assume Barrett is more liberal than Falk.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on May 08, 2012, 08:40:52 PM
Falk wasn't that well liked in the rural areas and outer/suburban cities, her strength was in Madison. So we'll have to see if maybe that holds true in this election.  


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on May 08, 2012, 08:41:53 PM
Fun fact: I endorsed Tom Barrett for Governor in 2010. I might again in 2012. Not sure yet.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nhoj on May 08, 2012, 08:42:21 PM
Based on the results I assume Barrett is more liberal than Falk.
That would be a wrong assumption.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on May 08, 2012, 08:43:43 PM
Based on the results I assume Barrett is more liberal than Falk.

Not really. Falk is the favorite of the Unions while Barrett is the favorite of the party. Falk has made the stance that she would veto any budget that didn't restore collective bargaining rights. Barrett said he'd wait until he has the legislature to do so.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 08, 2012, 08:45:06 PM
Barrett also used Walker's bill to balance his own city budget. Unions weren't too happy about that.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nhoj on May 08, 2012, 09:49:11 PM
Barrett also used Walker's bill to balance his own city budget. Unions weren't too happy about that.
Union voters on the other hand seem to like barrett better than falk, judging by some of the areas hes winning.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on May 08, 2012, 09:52:22 PM
Falk wasn't that well liked in the rural areas and outer/suburban cities, her strength was in Madison. So we'll have to see if maybe that holds true in this election.  

Nope, Falk is actually doing better in the Fox River Valley then she is in Dane County. it does however look like Vinehout might win a county!


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nhoj on May 08, 2012, 10:00:47 PM
Falk wasn't that well liked in the rural areas and outer/suburban cities, her strength was in Madison. So we'll have to see if maybe that holds true in this election.  

Nope, Falk is actually doing better in the Fox River Valley then she is in Dane County. it does however look like Vinehout might win a county!
heh yeah shes winning pepin which is of course in her senate district.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: rbt48 on May 08, 2012, 10:57:55 PM
Looks like the total party vote in the WI governor primaries (as of now) is about 619,000 R, 608,000 D.  I wonder how indicative of the final recall vote this will be?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: ag on May 08, 2012, 11:04:36 PM
Looks like the total party vote in the WI governor primaries (as of now) is about 619,000 R, 608,000 D.  I wonder how indicative of the final recall vote this will be?

W/ 99% reporting it's 650,000 D 633,000 R

Given that the Republican one was pretty much uncontested, it might not be such a bad news for Walker either.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: bgwah on May 08, 2012, 11:14:07 PM
I've always figured Walker would survive. Democrats are just going to look silly after this is all over. Hopefully I'm wrong..


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Napoleon on May 08, 2012, 11:15:59 PM
I've always figured Walker would survive. Democrats are just going to look silly after this is all over. Hopefully I'm wrong..

You (and I) will be right. This is a foolish waste of resources. The effort could have been put into Inslee's campaign. :)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: DrScholl on May 08, 2012, 11:21:45 PM
Walker has some very devoted support

http://www.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/wife-drives-into-chippewa-falls-man-after-vote-argument-ke5bdap-150697635.html

Quote
A Chippewa Falls man who repeatedly tried to block his estranged wife from driving to the polls Tuesday was hospitalized with head, neck and back injuries when she struck him with her sport utility vehicle.

Jeffery Radle, a Gov. Scott Walker supporter, was on foot.

Amanda Radle, a recall proponent, was in a Dodge Durango.

The pair had been arguing early Tuesday afternoon over who she was going to vote for in the gubernatorial recall election primary, said Chippewa Falls Police Chief Wendy L. Stelter.



Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 08, 2012, 11:34:43 PM
Only a seventeen thousand voter difference between Dems and Republicans and Walker only had a total joke primary opponent? Wow. Thanks for this recall.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Meeker on May 08, 2012, 11:41:16 PM
I suspect the margin will end up rather similar to 2010. I think the state is pretty evenly divided on Walker's actions but there's a portion of the population out there (5-10%) that opposes recalls out of principle and that'll carry the day for Walker.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on May 08, 2012, 11:57:47 PM
I suspect the margin will end up rather similar to 2010. I think the state is pretty evenly divided on Walker's actions but there's a portion of the population out there (5-10%) that opposes recalls out of principle and that'll carry the day for Walker.

That's possible.  It's too bad that Wisconsin doesn't let voters recall legislation instead of politicians like Ohio does, because then the Democrats would have better chances of getting what they want.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: morgieb on May 09, 2012, 07:41:03 AM
I suspect the margin will end up rather similar to 2010. I think the state is pretty evenly divided on Walker's actions but there's a portion of the population out there (5-10%) that opposes recalls out of principle and that'll carry the day for Walker.

Yeah this.

Will have a very high turnout. Democrats hate Walker whereas Republicans love him.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on May 09, 2012, 08:09:40 AM
Walker has some very devoted support

http://www.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/wife-drives-into-chippewa-falls-man-after-vote-argument-ke5bdap-150697635.html

Quote
A Chippewa Falls man who repeatedly tried to block his estranged wife from driving to the polls Tuesday was hospitalized with head, neck and back injuries when she struck him with her sport utility vehicle.

Jeffery Radle, a Gov. Scott Walker supporter, was on foot.

Amanda Radle, a recall proponent, was in a Dodge Durango.

The pair had been arguing early Tuesday afternoon over who she was going to vote for in the gubernatorial recall election primary, said Chippewa Falls Police Chief Wendy L. Stelter.

lol


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 09, 2012, 02:50:19 PM
I suspect the margin will end up rather similar to 2010. I think the state is pretty evenly divided on Walker's actions but there's a portion of the population out there (5-10%) that opposes recalls out of principle and that'll carry the day for Walker.

That's possible.  It's too bad that Wisconsin doesn't let voters recall legislation instead of politicians like Ohio does, because then the Democrats would have better chances of getting what they want.

Maybe, but that wouldn't make sense considering democrats have basically abandoned the anti act 10 message because they lose on it.  Barrett didn't even mention it last night.  They want to run on jobs or women apparently...  this recall is so stupid.     


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on May 09, 2012, 02:56:05 PM
I suspect the margin will end up rather similar to 2010. I think the state is pretty evenly divided on Walker's actions but there's a portion of the population out there (5-10%) that opposes recalls out of principle and that'll carry the day for Walker.

That's possible.  It's too bad that Wisconsin doesn't let voters recall legislation instead of politicians like Ohio does, because then the Democrats would have better chances of getting what they want.

Maybe, but that wouldn't make sense considering democrats have basically abandoned the anti act 10 message because they lose on it.  Barrett didn't even mention it last night.  They want to run on jobs or women apparently...  this recall is so stupid.     

The Democrats do seem to be making the same mistake they did with the recalls by not making unions the central issue in spite of the fact that most Wisconsin voters support collective bargaining rights.  It all depends on how they go about the issue from now until the election.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 09, 2012, 05:06:30 PM
I suspect the margin will end up rather similar to 2010. I think the state is pretty evenly divided on Walker's actions but there's a portion of the population out there (5-10%) that opposes recalls out of principle and that'll carry the day for Walker.

That's possible.  It's too bad that Wisconsin doesn't let voters recall legislation instead of politicians like Ohio does, because then the Democrats would have better chances of getting what they want.

Maybe, but that wouldn't make sense considering democrats have basically abandoned the anti act 10 message because they lose on it.  Barrett didn't even mention it last night.  They want to run on jobs or women apparently...  this recall is so stupid.    

The Democrats do seem to be making the same mistake they did with the recalls by not making unions the central issue in spite of the fact that most Wisconsin voters support collective bargaining rights.  It all depends on how they go about the issue from now until the election.

If you include the word "rights" in anything it is generally supported.  Collective Bargaining is not a right by definition.  Most Wisconsin voters support the act 10 reforms because they stopped some abused and destructive privileges that never should have been granted.  

Last night, Barrett said the recall was about jobs...  hard to make up a more absurd lie.  

Fun Stuff
Approximately 735,798 Republicans turned out to vote while only 541,018 Democrats turned out to vote.  Many republicans voted for the weaker democrat union endorsed Falk instead of Walker. 

 http://www.wigderson.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Recall-Primary-2012.jpg (http://www.wigderson.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Recall-Primary-2012.jpg)
  

  


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on May 09, 2012, 09:25:06 PM
I suspect the margin will end up rather similar to 2010. I think the state is pretty evenly divided on Walker's actions but there's a portion of the population out there (5-10%) that opposes recalls out of principle and that'll carry the day for Walker.

Yeah this.

Will have a very high turnout. Democrats hate Walker whereas Republicans love him.

http://m.jsonline.com/blogs/news/150760775.html


Milwaukee Mayor Barrett enjoyed his biggest countywide margins in Milwaukee County Tuesday. But the county’s turnout rate was much lower than Dane’s: 17% of voting-age adults, or 123,638 people, voted in the Democratic primary


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on May 09, 2012, 10:02:58 PM
I join Krazen in really, really wanting to win this one. Things look pretty good at the moment, but things can go wrong in a hurry, with all of the plate tectonic shifts moving around all over the place, as the voters try to sort through a host of unpleasant stuff. It's cold shower time, and only kooks like cold showers.

That is why I am so amused by all the youngs  forecasting how various states will go this November and by what margin, and then even by county in one thread. Oh dear! They will learn in time. :)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on May 09, 2012, 11:39:28 PM
This election is a lot more interesting than Presidential one, and it there are actual different ideologies presented here. Hopefully the good guys win although it's not looking very good.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 10, 2012, 11:10:37 AM
Wisconsin Recall Election: Walker 50%, Barrett 45%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_governor_elections/wisconsin/wisconsin_recall_election_walker_50_barrett_45

Given how badly dems were crushed in turnout Tuesday, I actually think that indicates what will happen June 5th.  Incomprehensible to political junkies, but most democrats do NOT know (anymore) why Walker is being recalled.  The reforms work!  Let this be a lesson that this is what happens when you let ONE special interest group (non police/fire government employees) control your party.  Most Wisdems did not want this, but they were powerless to stop it and will suffer by association. 

That large number of people that correctly understand that this is an abuse of the recall process goes a long way toward Walker winning the few remaining undecideds and suppresses dem turnout.  Walker will probably win every region of the state except the Dane county region(south-central), The La Crosse region will be close.  Walker will win South-East Wisconsin(were the population is), but an interesting question is: will Walker get over 40% in Milwaukee county?  if he does it is almost impossible for a democrat to win a statewide election.           

When was the last time a (mid-sized)state budget became a national issue?     


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Miles on May 10, 2012, 02:12:38 PM
Wisconsin Recall Election: Walker 50%, Barrett 45%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_governor_elections/wisconsin/wisconsin_recall_election_walker_50_barrett_45
  

Good, its a pure tossup then.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on May 10, 2012, 03:17:04 PM
It's Rasmussen.  Knock off a few R points and yeah, toss-up.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Ike56 on May 10, 2012, 04:34:38 PM
It's Rasmussen.  Knock off a few R points and yeah, toss-up.

A fair point, indeed.  PPP had it at +1 for Walker with LVs, so I shall deduct a couple of points from Barrett to compensate for their supposed (actually, openly admitted per Tommy Jensen) partisan leanings.  Walker will thus win narrowly.

Now, can we please stop awarding phantom votes to one candidate or another based on whether we like the alleged affiliations of certain pollsters?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on May 10, 2012, 09:12:25 PM
Democrats should have just played as dirty as the Republicans did, and unloaded the entire kitchen sink on Walker. Throw everything together(race-baiting, attack on women, unions, jobs record, call him a fascist a few times) and they would come out ahead by a point or two.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 11, 2012, 11:46:38 AM
Thank God for the Democrats that this guy just can't keep his mouth when he talks to his sugar daddies (and mommies).

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/05/11/walker_talked_of_divide_and_conquer_strategy.html#047869a (http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/05/11/walker_talked_of_divide_and_conquer_strategy.html#047869a)

A video taken in early 2011 shows Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) saying he would use "divide and conquer" as a strategy against unions, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

"Walker made the comments to billionaire Diane Hendricks, who has since given $510,000 to the governor's campaign -- making her Walker's single-largest donor and the largest known donor to a candidate in state history."

"In the video, Hendricks asked the governor whether he could make Wisconsin a 'completely red state, and work on these unions, and become a right-to-work' state... Walker replied that his 'first step' would be 'to divide and conquer' through his budget-adjustment bill, which curtailed most collective bargaining for most public employee unions."

Here's the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=K1S_Pxw2n-U (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=K1S_Pxw2n-U)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LiberalJunkie on May 11, 2012, 07:43:07 PM
Lol busted


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 12, 2012, 11:17:56 AM
Translation:
"I prefer a mild - practical approach that I know will work in solving the state's problems."

1) The democrats and the Unions are divided, so apparently Walker is a genius.
 
2) Boy does Diane Hendricks look different than I thought she did. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 12, 2012, 02:05:35 PM
Translation:
"I prefer a mild - practical approach that I know will work in solving the state's problems."

1) The democrats and the Unions are divided, so apparently Walker is a genius.
 
2) Boy does Diane Hendricks look different than I thought she did. 

Apparently your translator was made in India.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Vosem on May 12, 2012, 02:08:25 PM
Meh. The sort of people who were going to vote against Walker anyway are excited about this. The rest of us will get on with our lives. Walker will probably still be re-elected.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on May 15, 2012, 04:24:13 PM
We can cherry-pick dropped balls all we like but the fact remains that PPP's methodology and business ethics as a polling firm, taken as a whole, beat Rasmussen's by a country mile.


Based on PPP, the far superior pollster (according to another liberal in this thread), Ras and PPP are showing the exact same results now. And for that matter the same more or less as this Marquette Poll.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

The poll finds Walker ahead of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by a 50 percent to 44 percent margin.





Shrug.


But let's knock a few points off because someone might like the result better.


It's Rasmussen.  Knock off a few R points and yeah, toss-up.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Vosem on May 15, 2012, 04:26:35 PM
Meh. The sort of people who were going to vote against Walker anyway are excited about this. The rest of us will get on with our lives. Walker will probably still be re-elected.

I feel kind of narcissistic quoting myself, but I was right -- both PPP and Ras have shown Walker remains in the lead, with the video not having really affected much of anything.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on May 16, 2012, 12:44:36 PM
Meh. The sort of people who were going to vote against Walker anyway are excited about this. The rest of us will get on with our lives. Walker will probably still be re-elected.

I feel kind of narcissistic quoting myself, but I was right -- both PPP and Ras have shown Walker remains in the lead, with the video not having really affected much of anything.

Yep, and Marquette too.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nym90 on May 16, 2012, 05:26:37 PM
Thank God for the Democrats that this guy just can't keep his mouth when he talks to his sugar daddies (and mommies).

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/05/11/walker_talked_of_divide_and_conquer_strategy.html#047869a (http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/05/11/walker_talked_of_divide_and_conquer_strategy.html#047869a)

A video taken in early 2011 shows Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) saying he would use "divide and conquer" as a strategy against unions, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

"Walker made the comments to billionaire Diane Hendricks, who has since given $510,000 to the governor's campaign -- making her Walker's single-largest donor and the largest known donor to a candidate in state history."

"In the video, Hendricks asked the governor whether he could make Wisconsin a 'completely red state, and work on these unions, and become a right-to-work' state... Walker replied that his 'first step' would be 'to divide and conquer' through his budget-adjustment bill, which curtailed most collective bargaining for most public employee unions."

Here's the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=K1S_Pxw2n-U (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=K1S_Pxw2n-U)

Shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that this is the eventual goal of Walker and his ilk, of course.

If he wins, it will certainly be a major victory for those who wish to return to the good old days of the 1800's.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 16, 2012, 05:57:02 PM
If he wins, it will certainly be a major victory for those who wish to return to the good old days of the 1800's.

GDP growth above 2.5% ? ?  unemployment under 8% ? ?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: hawkeye59 on May 16, 2012, 06:19:07 PM
If he wins, it will certainly be a major victory for those who wish to return to the good old days of the 1800's.

GDP growth above 2.5% ? ?  unemployment under 8% ? ?
Slavery ? ? Imperialism ? ?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: CatoMinor on May 16, 2012, 06:22:49 PM
If he wins, it will certainly be a major victory for those who wish to return to the good old days of the 1800's.

GDP growth above 2.5% ? ?  unemployment under 8% ? ?
Slavery ? ? Imperialism ? ?
When did the Imperialism end?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 16, 2012, 06:50:55 PM
If he wins, it will certainly be a major victory for those who wish to return to the good old days of the 1800's.

GDP growth above 2.5% ? ?  unemployment under 8% ? ?
Slavery ? ? Imperialism ? ?
Yes if Scott Walker is re-elected to his first term as governor of Wisconsin, than SLAVERY will be re-instituted and  Wisconsin will exploit it's overseas IMPERIAL colonies. 

Wait, Slavery has never been instituted in Wisconsin and we have no colonies. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 16, 2012, 07:12:31 PM
apparently MoveOn is reporting that the DNC is pulling out of the recall race. 

this is all I can find on their goofy site:
 http://www.signon.org/sign/democratic-national-committe?source=homepage?rc=homepage.sidebar



Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Frodo on May 16, 2012, 07:14:26 PM
Depending on the results (for Republicans, very encouraging), I think we may be near to finding out who will be Mitt Romney's running-mate....    


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on May 16, 2012, 07:46:59 PM
Depending on the results (for Republicans, very encouraging), I think we may be near to finding out who will be Mitt Romney's running-mate....    
Walker becoming president of US is a very scary thought.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 16, 2012, 08:00:52 PM
Depending on the results (for Republicans, very encouraging), I think we may be near to finding out who will be Mitt Romney's running-mate....    
Walker becoming president of US is a very scary thought.
I am legitimately concerned that Biden is senile.  Walker isn't going to be VP, but Biden is actually scary. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on May 16, 2012, 08:05:43 PM
Depending on the results (for Republicans, very encouraging), I think we may be near to finding out who will be Mitt Romney's running-mate....    
Walker becoming president of US is a very scary thought.
I am legitimately concerned that Biden is senile.  Walker isn't going to be VP, but Biden is actually scary. 
Yea that's a serious concern, he made Sarah Palin look comprehensible in the VP debates, which is a noteworthy achievement.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: hawkeye59 on May 16, 2012, 08:16:00 PM
If he wins, it will certainly be a major victory for those who wish to return to the good old days of the 1800's.

GDP growth above 2.5% ? ?  unemployment under 8% ? ?
Slavery ? ? Imperialism ? ?
Yes if Scott Walker is re-elected to his first term as governor of Wisconsin, than SLAVERY will be re-instituted and  Wisconsin will exploit it's overseas IMPERIAL colonies. 

Wait, Slavery has never been instituted in Wisconsin and we have no colonies. 
That's not what I meant. I was just saying that the 1800s weren't "The good old days" just because they had a good economy.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on May 16, 2012, 08:58:40 PM
If he wins, it will certainly be a major victory for those who wish to return to the good old days of the 1800's.

GDP growth above 2.5% ? ?  unemployment under 8% ? ?
Slavery ? ? Imperialism ? ?
Yes if Scott Walker is re-elected to his first term as governor of Wisconsin, than SLAVERY will be re-instituted and  Wisconsin will exploit it's overseas IMPERIAL colonies. 

Wait, Slavery has never been instituted in Wisconsin and we have no colonies. 
That's not what I meant. I was just saying that the 1800s weren't "The good old days" just because they had a good economy.

Yeah that 18% unemployment in 1895 and 14% in 1876 sure was good.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on May 17, 2012, 10:46:03 AM
Depending on the results (for Republicans, very encouraging), I think we may be near to finding out who will be Mitt Romney's running-mate....    
Walker becoming president of US is a very scary thought.
I am legitimately concerned that Biden is senile.  Walker isn't going to be VP, but Biden is actually scary. 
Yea that's a serious concern, he made Sarah Palin look comprehensible in the VP debates, which is a noteworthy achievement.

Not really, the McCain campaign just had her memorize about 25 answers and constantly pivot to those whenever possible.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on May 17, 2012, 10:56:23 AM
If he wins, it will certainly be a major victory for those who wish to return to the good old days of the 1800's.

GDP growth above 2.5% ? ?  unemployment under 8% ? ?
Slavery ? ? Imperialism ? ?
Yes if Scott Walker is re-elected to his first term as governor of Wisconsin, than SLAVERY will be re-instituted and  Wisconsin will exploit it's overseas IMPERIAL colonies.  

Wait, Slavery has never been instituted in Wisconsin and we have no colonies.  
That's not what I meant. I was just saying that the 1800s weren't "The good old days" just because they had a good economy.

Yeah that 18% unemployment in 1895 and 14% in 1876 sure was good.

Hey, if we simply forgot almost the entirety of what we now know about medical science, and just turn it all over to quacks, who bleed you from time to time when you get sick, that should solve a lot of our fiscal problems, no?  And as to dentistry, in the good old days blacksmiths handled that.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 17, 2012, 12:19:55 PM
If he wins, it will certainly be a major victory for those who wish to return to the good old days of the 1800's.

GDP growth above 2.5% ? ?  unemployment under 8% ? ?
Slavery ? ? Imperialism ? ?
Yes if Scott Walker is re-elected to his first term as governor of Wisconsin, than SLAVERY will be re-instituted and  Wisconsin will exploit it's overseas IMPERIAL colonies.  

Wait, Slavery has never been instituted in Wisconsin and we have no colonies.  
That's not what I meant. I was just saying that the 1800s weren't "The good old days" just because they had a good economy.

Yeah that 18% unemployment in 1895 and 14% in 1876 sure was good.

Hey, if we simply forgot almost the entirety of what we now know about medical science, and just turn it all over to quacks, who bleed you from time to time when you get sick, that should solve a lot of our fiscal problems, no?  And as to dentistry, in the good old days blacksmiths handled that.

All of this will happen if Wisconsin public employees contribute a penny toward their million dollar pensions.  Also, the sky will fall and the seas will rise.   


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on May 17, 2012, 09:40:10 PM
My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation? 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 17, 2012, 10:13:12 PM
My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation? 

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on May 17, 2012, 10:24:03 PM
My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation? 

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net. 
Yes, you have to go back a couple more centuries.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 18, 2012, 02:51:27 AM
My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation? 

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net. 
Yes, you have to go back a couple more centuries.

You need to hit that sweet spot where there's no safety net but also no projection capacity for imperialism or slave trade.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 18, 2012, 11:32:23 AM
My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation? 

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net. 
Yes, you have to go back a couple more centuries.

You need to hit that sweet spot where there's no safety net but also no projection capacity for imperialism or slave trade.
why would you do that?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on May 18, 2012, 12:42:17 PM
My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation?  

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net.  
Yes, you have to go back a couple more centuries.

You need to hit that sweet spot where there's no safety net but also no projection capacity for imperialism or slave trade.
Ah so one century forward. Calvin Coolidge or Hoover?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 18, 2012, 01:35:55 PM
My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation?  

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net.  
Yes, you have to go back a couple more centuries.

You need to hit that sweet spot where there's no safety net but also no projection capacity for imperialism or slave trade.
Ah so one century forward. Calvin Coolidge or Hoover?

Coolidge Presidency.  Hoover was a great man after his presidency. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on May 18, 2012, 01:42:15 PM
My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation?  

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net.  
Yes, you have to go back a couple more centuries.

You need to hit that sweet spot where there's no safety net but also no projection capacity for imperialism or slave trade.
Ah so one century forward. Calvin Coolidge or Hoover?

Coolidge Presidency.  Hoover was a great man after his presidency. 
Both were terrible for the median worker. I know that's not who you are concerned about, and that's why you think Scott Walker is great.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 18, 2012, 11:34:51 PM
My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation?  

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net.  
Yes, you have to go back a couple more centuries.

You need to hit that sweet spot where there's no safety net but also no projection capacity for imperialism or slave trade.
Ah so one century forward. Calvin Coolidge or Hoover?

Coolidge Presidency.  Hoover was a great man after his presidency. 
Both were terrible for the median worker. I know that's not who you are concerned about, and that's why you think Scott Walker is great.

Hoover was, legitimately, a great man both before and after his presidency. Just not during.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: patrick1 on May 19, 2012, 12:12:01 AM
^Re: Hoover: That is debatable. He was Sec of Commerce during Great Mississippi floods of 1927 and he stood by while disgusting abuses and neglect against African Americans occurred.

A good read on the subject
http://www.amazon.com/Rising-Tide-Mississippi-Changed-America/dp/0684840022




Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on May 19, 2012, 01:21:31 AM
My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation?  

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net.  
Yes, you have to go back a couple more centuries.

You need to hit that sweet spot where there's no safety net but also no projection capacity for imperialism or slave trade.
Ah so one century forward. Calvin Coolidge or Hoover?

Coolidge Presidency.  Hoover was a great man after his presidency. 
Both were terrible for the median worker. I know that's not who you are concerned about, and that's why you think Scott Walker is great.

Hoover was, legitimately, a great man both before and after his presidency. Just not during.
Well I was talking about them as presidents.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 19, 2012, 09:19:56 AM
Hoover was, legitimately, a great man both before and after his presidency. Just not during.

Yea you're right, I didn't spend the time to craft that point properly.

Both were terrible for the median worker. I know that's not who you are concerned about, and that's why you think Scott Walker is great.


Actually, Coolidge was pretty great for the median worker.  Broad prosperity breeds opportunity.
   
FDR on the other hand was a complete disaster.  He cartelized industries, destroyed agricultural products, attempted artificially to raise prices (in the wake of the Great money Contraction, no less!), launched entirely new regulatory agencies headed by cronies, spent and ran up government debt orgiastically, pumped labor unions with more arbitrary power to behave monopolistically, and demonized entrepreneurs and industrialists.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: tpfkaw on May 19, 2012, 09:24:40 AM
Both were terrible for the median worker. I know that's not who you are concerned about, and that's why you think Scott Walker is great.


Actually, Coolidge was pretty great for the median worker.  Broad prosperity breeds opportunity.
   
FDR on the other hand was a complete disaster.  He cartelized industries, destroyed agricultural products, attempted artificially to raise prices (in the wake of the Great money Contraction, no less!), launched entirely new regulatory agencies headed by cronies, spent and ran up government debt orgiastically, pumped labor unions with more arbitrary power to behave monopolistically, and demonized entrepreneurs and industrialists.

Hoover actually started all those things except for the last, which makes the revisionist caricature of him as some kind of laissez-faireist rather more ridiculous.

I'd say he's probably the most genuinely good person to have ever been President, and has a good claim to being the smartest one, too.  Unfortunately, that wasn't enough to make him a *good* one at the time he was in office.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 19, 2012, 06:44:55 PM
Both were terrible for the median worker. I know that's not who you are concerned about, and that's why you think Scott Walker is great.


Actually, Coolidge was pretty great for the median worker.  Broad prosperity breeds opportunity.
   
FDR on the other hand was a complete disaster.  He cartelized industries, destroyed agricultural products, attempted artificially to raise prices (in the wake of the Great money Contraction, no less!), launched entirely new regulatory agencies headed by cronies, spent and ran up government debt orgiastically, pumped labor unions with more arbitrary power to behave monopolistically, and demonized entrepreneurs and industrialists.

Hoover actually started all those things except for the last, which makes the revisionist caricature of him as some kind of laissez-faireist rather more ridiculous.

I'd say he's probably the most genuinely good person to have ever been President, and has a good claim to being the smartest one, too.  Unfortunately, that wasn't enough to make him a *good* one at the time he was in office.
Hmmm, maybe more like except the last two or three? ...and I don't think the first one to any great extent either, but yes Hoover is sometimes credited with starting the new deal.  I wouldn't try to correlate the two like that though.  Hoover seemingly fell into a technocratic trap.  Knowing how things work, but rolling the dice that you can create a better outcome by threading a needle.  He at least knew how things worked, whereas FDR basically didn't.

Hoover's main blunders:
1) money supply contraction + balancing the budget at the time of the crash (long term is good, not immediately)
2) Smoot–Hawley Tariff... which I think he was personally against, but signed it in a deal.
3) Began our road to insanely Increased regulations. 
 
1st one is the only major problem ...it magnified the second hugely.  3rd is more of a bad legacy, due to others continually making it worse. 
         


Title: Re: The Life And Times of Herbert Hoover
Post by: CatoMinor on May 19, 2012, 07:28:41 PM
I am beginning to think this thread needs a name change. :P


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 19, 2012, 10:56:09 PM
I saw a band from Milwaukee last night talk a lot about how much they hated Scott Walker.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 19, 2012, 11:21:13 PM
I saw a band from Milwaukee last night talk a lot about how much they hated Scott Walker.
So what?

did they have any rational or thoughts or was it like 'pure tribal hate filled emotionalism?' 


'that' might be a good band/album name. 


Title: Re: The Life And Times of Herbert Hoover
Post by: AmericanNation on May 19, 2012, 11:36:01 PM
Re: The Life And Times of Herbert Hoover
I am beginning to think this thread needs a name change. :P
Well, the recall has now shifted into something like:
1) now that Walker is going to win (probably convincingly) is this a game changer for the presidential race? and
2) Is Walker going to use his new massive mandate to impose a new age of Neo-Coolidge-ism? and
3) Why does the mention of Coolidge cause Dems to bring up Hoover within 5 seconds? 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 19, 2012, 11:43:54 PM
And the nail in the coffin.  The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Barrett's Base) is endorsing Walker.  I think the Recall balloon just deflated completely. 
   

http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/we-recommend-walker-his-removal-isnt-justified-l55ecb6-152111305.html


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Frodo on May 20, 2012, 12:19:13 AM
Depending on the results (for Republicans, very encouraging), I think we may be near to finding out who will be Mitt Romney's running-mate....    
Walker becoming president of US is a very scary thought.
Walker isn't going to be VP (...)

You seem quite confident about it. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 20, 2012, 12:26:14 AM
I saw a band from Milwaukee last night talk a lot about how much they hated Scott Walker.
So what?

did they have any rational or thoughts or was it like 'pure tribal hate filled emotionalism?' 


'that' might be a good band/album name. 

They were mostly drunk, the show was a joint celebration for the 32nd birthday of the singer of the last band and the 25th birthday of their drummer after all.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: CatoMinor on May 20, 2012, 12:49:00 AM
And the nail in the coffin.  The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Barrett's Base) is endorsing Walker.  I think the Recall balloon just deflated completely. 
   

http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/we-recommend-walker-his-removal-isnt-justified-l55ecb6-152111305.html

What does the endorsement history MJS look like?


Title: Re: The Life And Times of Herbert Hoover
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on May 20, 2012, 01:09:14 AM
3) Why does the mention of Coolidge cause Dems to bring up Hoover within 5 seconds? 

Generally speaking, a major stock market crash within eight months of one leaving office isn't something to be proud of, even if the bubble leading up to that crash meant that people got to live the high life for the preceding seven or eight years.


Title: Re: The Life And Times of Herbert Hoover
Post by: LastVoter on May 20, 2012, 04:22:48 AM
Re: The Life And Times of Herbert Hoover
I am beginning to think this thread needs a name change. :P
Well, the recall has now shifted into something like:
1) now that Walker is going to win (probably convincingly) is this a game changer for the presidential race? and
2) Is Walker going to use his new massive mandate to impose a new age of Neo-Coolidge-ism? and
3) Why does the mention of Coolidge cause Dems to bring up Hoover within 5 seconds? 
Staying on the Coolidge topic, disregarding Hoover.
Are you familiar with Roaring 20's and the year of 1929? Guess who those achievements belong too?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nhoj on May 20, 2012, 10:57:25 AM
And the nail in the coffin.  The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Barrett's Base) is endorsing Walker.  I think the Recall balloon just deflated completely. 
   

http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/we-recommend-walker-his-removal-isnt-justified-l55ecb6-152111305.html

What does the endorsement history MJS look like?
pretty sure they endorsed walker in 2010, and often support republicans.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 21, 2012, 11:14:11 AM
And the nail in the coffin.  The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Barrett's Base) is endorsing Walker.  I think the Recall balloon just deflated completely. 
   

http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/we-recommend-walker-his-removal-isnt-justified-l55ecb6-152111305.html

What does the endorsement history MJS look like?
pretty sure they endorsed walker in 2010, and often support republicans.

Yea, they sometimes (not "often") begrudgingly try to appear un-hackish.  The editorial board is Left of Center without a doubt.  They typically only support a republican if the democrat is a pathetic token, incompetent, or very likely to lose anyway.  This paper has basically been a protection racket for Barrett's tenure as mayor.  It is strikingly odd for them to point anything 'negative' out in relation to Barrett.  My guess is they see the writing on the wall.       


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on May 21, 2012, 11:19:24 AM
This is going to some circus if allegations of corruption are proven true against Walker soon after the election.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 21, 2012, 11:58:32 AM
This is going to some circus if allegations of corruption are proven true against Walker soon after the election.
Are you talking about the John Doe investigation Walker originally called for?  If so it goes like this:
1) County Executive Walker suspects a problem with a charitable org overseen by the county.
2) Walker asks the District Attorney to look into it. 
3) The guy running the org turned out to be embezzling funds   
4) The John Joe turns into a fishing expedition for the last two years, producing basically nothing so far. 
5) Leaks from the DA office to the Journal Sentinel brings into question the professionalism of the Milwaukee DA office.
6) Democrats pin political hopes on 'a/any result' of the investigation, hopefully timed right before the recall. 

...Judging by what a complete boy scout Walker is, I would have to conclude that nothing close to Walker is there to find.  They might find a few staffers doing political work on government time (by typing an email or something).   


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on May 21, 2012, 12:57:01 PM
This is going to some circus if allegations of corruption are proven true against Walker soon after the election.
Are you talking about the John Doe investigation Walker originally called for?  If so it goes like this:
1) County Executive Walker suspects a problem with a charitable org overseen by the county.
2) Walker asks the District Attorney to look into it.  
3) The guy running the org turned out to be embezzling funds    
4) The John Joe turns into a fishing expedition for the last two years, producing basically nothing so far.  
5) Leaks from the DA office to the Journal Sentinel brings into question the professionalism of the Milwaukee DA office.
6) Democrats pin political hopes on 'a/any result' of the investigation, hopefully timed right before the recall.  

...Judging by what a complete boy scout Walker is, I would have to conclude that nothing close to Walker is there to find.  They might find a few staffers doing political work on government time (by typing an email or something).  
You forgot about him hiring unqualified friends for well paid public positions.(some guy with 2 DUI's for $80K a year job). Also isn't it hypocritical to release the better job numbers that don't normally get released until 5 weeks later and then not expect to get indicted in the John Doe investigation?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 21, 2012, 02:59:22 PM
This is going to some circus if allegations of corruption are proven true against Walker soon after the election.
Are you talking about the John Doe investigation Walker originally called for?  If so it goes like this:
1) County Executive Walker suspects a problem with a charitable org overseen by the county.
2) Walker asks the District Attorney to look into it.  
3) The guy running the org turned out to be embezzling funds    
4) The John Joe turns into a fishing expedition for the last two years, producing basically nothing so far.  
5) Leaks from the DA office to the Journal Sentinel brings into question the professionalism of the Milwaukee DA office.
6) Democrats pin political hopes on 'a/any result' of the investigation, hopefully timed right before the recall.  

...Judging by what a complete boy scout Walker is, I would have to conclude that nothing close to Walker is there to find.  They might find a few staffers doing political work on government time (by typing an email or something).  
You forgot about him hiring unqualified friends for well paid public positions.(some guy with 2 DUI's for $80K a year job). Also isn't it hypocritical to release the better job numbers that don't normally get released until 5 weeks later and then not expect to get indicted in the John Doe investigation?
what?
1)a public employee had a DUI... ok.
2) no.  releasing important information to the public is a good thing not a bad thing. 
3) why would you expect to get indicted if you didn't do anything?  he hasn't even been accused of anything.  You aren't making a coherent point, that I can tell. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on May 21, 2012, 05:52:03 PM
This is going to some circus if allegations of corruption are proven true against Walker soon after the election.
Are you talking about the John Doe investigation Walker originally called for?  If so it goes like this:
1) County Executive Walker suspects a problem with a charitable org overseen by the county.
2) Walker asks the District Attorney to look into it.  
3) The guy running the org turned out to be embezzling funds    
4) The John Joe turns into a fishing expedition for the last two years, producing basically nothing so far.  
5) Leaks from the DA office to the Journal Sentinel brings into question the professionalism of the Milwaukee DA office.
6) Democrats pin political hopes on 'a/any result' of the investigation, hopefully timed right before the recall.  

...Judging by what a complete boy scout Walker is, I would have to conclude that nothing close to Walker is there to find.  They might find a few staffers doing political work on government time (by typing an email or something).  
You forgot about him hiring unqualified friends for well paid public positions.(some guy with 2 DUI's for $80K a year job). Also isn't it hypocritical to release the better job numbers that don't normally get released until 5 weeks later and then not expect to get indicted in the John Doe investigation?
what?
1)a public employee had a DUI... ok.
2) no.  releasing important information to the public is a good thing not a bad thing. 
3) why would you expect to get indicted if you didn't do anything?  he hasn't even been accused of anything.  You aren't making a coherent point, that I can tell. 
He released information that traditionally doesn't get released until June for his political gain(to defend himself from re-election), so why would it be wrong for Democrats to indict him before the re-election for their political gain?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on May 21, 2012, 08:23:49 PM
This is going to some circus if allegations of corruption are proven true against Walker soon after the election.
Are you talking about the John Doe investigation Walker originally called for?  If so it goes like this:
1) County Executive Walker suspects a problem with a charitable org overseen by the county.
2) Walker asks the District Attorney to look into it.  
3) The guy running the org turned out to be embezzling funds    
4) The John Joe turns into a fishing expedition for the last two years, producing basically nothing so far.  
5) Leaks from the DA office to the Journal Sentinel brings into question the professionalism of the Milwaukee DA office.
6) Democrats pin political hopes on 'a/any result' of the investigation, hopefully timed right before the recall.  

...Judging by what a complete boy scout Walker is, I would have to conclude that nothing close to Walker is there to find.  They might find a few staffers doing political work on government time (by typing an email or something).  
You forgot about him hiring unqualified friends for well paid public positions.(some guy with 2 DUI's for $80K a year job). Also isn't it hypocritical to release the better job numbers that don't normally get released until 5 weeks later and then not expect to get indicted in the John Doe investigation?
what?
1)a public employee had a DUI... ok.
2) no.  releasing important information to the public is a good thing not a bad thing. 
3) why would you expect to get indicted if you didn't do anything?  he hasn't even been accused of anything.  You aren't making a coherent point, that I can tell. 
He released information that traditionally doesn't get released until June for his political gain(to defend himself from re-election), so why would it be wrong for Democrats to indict him before the re-election for their political gain?

If you are referring to the good employment numbers in Wisconsin, as to what Walker released, he said specifically on Fox News, that the employment data was gathered per federal mandate in the normal course for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and released on, and not before,  the deadline date. In fact, he made a point of that without being asked, because I guess even though Greta did not know about that charge, he wanted to respond anyway. So that does not comport with a claim of early release.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on May 21, 2012, 08:30:47 PM
And why would releasing data early be a reason for someone vote differently? If it is good data and he wanted to be known, barring the breaking of any laws, why would people care even if it was to benefit his campaign.

Now if he had delayed the data so as to avoid the release of bad news before the election or had altered in some way as to make things look better then they were, then people would be outraged and rightfully.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on May 21, 2012, 08:37:36 PM
And why would releasing data early be a reason for someone vote differently? If it is good data and he wanted to be known, barring the breaking of any laws, why would people care even if it was to benefit his campaign.

Now if he had delayed the data so as to avoid the release of bad news before the election or had altered in some way as to make things look better then they were, then people would be outraged and rightfully.
Isn't that data usually released later, and could still be revised, and is usually released after revision?
http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/update-walker-releases-better-jobs-data/article_6f6c2302-9f54-11e1-9c91-001a4bcf887a.html


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on May 22, 2012, 08:05:38 AM
He released information that traditionally doesn't get released until June for his political gain(to defend himself from re-election), so why would it be wrong for Democrats to indict him before the re-election for their political gain?

Since when can political parties indict anyone? Or are you suggesting the investigation is led by partisans?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on May 22, 2012, 09:08:07 AM
And why would releasing data early be a reason for someone vote differently? If it is good data and he wanted to be known, barring the breaking of any laws, why would people care even if it was to benefit his campaign.

Now if he had delayed the data so as to avoid the release of bad news before the election or had altered in some way as to make things look better then they were, then people would be outraged and rightfully.
Isn't that data usually released later, and could still be revised, and is usually released after revision?
http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/update-walker-releases-better-jobs-data/article_6f6c2302-9f54-11e1-9c91-001a4bcf887a.html

Isn't both the GDP and Unemployment data nationwide released and then revised later?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on May 22, 2012, 05:03:14 PM
And why would releasing data early be a reason for someone vote differently? If it is good data and he wanted to be known, barring the breaking of any laws, why would people care even if it was to benefit his campaign.

Now if he had delayed the data so as to avoid the release of bad news before the election or had altered in some way as to make things look better then they were, then people would be outraged and rightfully.
Isn't that data usually released later, and could still be revised, and is usually released after revision?
http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/update-walker-releases-better-jobs-data/article_6f6c2302-9f54-11e1-9c91-001a4bcf887a.html

Isn't both the GDP and Unemployment data nationwide released and then revised later?
It's checked before it's released by the BLS, than revised later I think.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 23, 2012, 01:36:36 PM
And why would releasing data early be a reason for someone vote differently? If it is good data and he wanted to be known, barring the breaking of any laws, why would people care even if it was to benefit his campaign.

Now if he had delayed the data so as to avoid the release of bad news before the election or had altered in some way as to make things look better then they were, then people would be outraged and rightfully.
Isn't that data usually released later, and could still be revised, and is usually released after revision?
http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/update-walker-releases-better-jobs-data/article_6f6c2302-9f54-11e1-9c91-001a4bcf887a.html

Isn't both the GDP and Unemployment data nationwide released and then revised later?
It's checked before it's released by the BLS, than revised later I think.

There isn't a lot to revise as this data is basically a 'count' not a projection.  The dems got furious about it because they were making a flawed projection (from earlier in the year) the main feature of the campaign and these numbers made them look ridiculous...  and you know that could never happen without an evil right wing conspiracy. 

An economist from some state agency gave a detailed presentation suggesting that the earlier projection was an out-layer a month or more ago and the dems just went berserk on the poor guy for the sin of telling the truth and being smart.  Now Walker has committed the same sin.  They actually think it is against the law to tell the public the truth...  weird.         


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on May 23, 2012, 07:38:29 PM


Another day, another poll, another big lead for Scott Walker.

http://wauwatosa.patch.com/articles/walker-maintains-consistent-lead-over-barrett-in-latest-poll

In a telephone survey of 406 Wisconsin residents conducted between Thursday and Tuesday, 50 percent of respondents said they would vote for Walker compared to 45 percent for Barrett if the election were held today. Five percent remained undecided.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Alcon on May 23, 2012, 07:42:04 PM
An n=406 poll with a +5% lead isn't really "dominating"; it's within the MoE.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on May 23, 2012, 11:20:49 PM
An n=406 poll with a +5% lead isn't really "dominating"; it's within the MoE.

Yes, but if the poll is accurate, while the odds that the leader will win are less than 95% (or is it 98% - (I can't remember what percentage is two standard deviations out and which three)?), they probably are at least 80%-85%, enough to make it a "likely" call in my opinion, if the poll is accurate.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 24, 2012, 08:07:24 AM
The dems have basically given up "campaigning" as they have no  chance to win that way. 
They have a bunch of out of state operatives driving around vans in Milwaukee and Madison so they can deliver warm bodies to early absentee vote.  Their has reportedly been 100,000 early absentee ballots so far (in two days) compared to 200,000ish in the 2010 election. 
It is a little concerning because a disinterested uniformed vote is worth as much as the opposite.  However, the side that doesn't have to drag a majority of it's voters to the polls has a type of advantage.         


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 24, 2012, 08:50:07 AM


The campaign has basically turned into:
 the Walker side citing dozens and dozens of facts
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIUWlS4FwBk

vs.

The Barrett side making wild accusations and claims that can't be or haven't been substantiated.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEZ-IaUU7Zk&list=UUHESYehMLDoSbTpk8apKiEA&index=1&feature=plcp

and Walker is a "Rock Star" which makes dems uber jealous. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiUaq5eGJlw&list=UUHESYehMLDoSbTpk8apKiEA&index=4&feature=plcp


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on May 24, 2012, 12:02:43 PM
Walker +12 here.

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/05/24/turnout


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on May 24, 2012, 02:09:47 PM
The dems have basically given up "campaigning" as they have no  chance to win that way. 
They have a bunch of out of state operatives driving around vans in Milwaukee and Madison so they can deliver warm bodies to early absentee vote.  Their has reportedly been 100,000 early absentee ballots so far (in two days) compared to 200,000ish in the 2010 election. 
It is a little concerning because a disinterested uniformed vote is worth as much as the opposite.  However, the side that doesn't have to drag a majority of it's voters to the polls has a type of advantage.         

It's "uninterested" actually. "Disinterested" means unbiased, like a judge is supposed to be. You really all need to go to law school, to learn about, inter alia, mootness and disinterestedness. :P


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 24, 2012, 02:59:02 PM
The dems have basically given up "campaigning" as they have no  chance to win that way. 
They have a bunch of out of state operatives driving around vans in Milwaukee and Madison so they can deliver warm bodies to early absentee vote.  Their has reportedly been 100,000 early absentee ballots so far (in two days) compared to 200,000ish in the 2010 election. 
It is a little concerning because a disinterested uniformed vote is worth as much as the opposite.  However, the side that doesn't have to drag a majority of it's voters to the polls has a type of advantage.         

It's "uninterested" actually. "Disinterested" means unbiased, like a judge is supposed to be. You really all need to go to law school, to learn about, inter alia, mootness and disinterestedness. :P

I actually paused on uninterested and backspaced over it.  I wanted to take Latin just for that type of thing, but it wasn't available/workable. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Alcon on May 24, 2012, 03:26:58 PM
An n=406 poll with a +5% lead isn't really "dominating"; it's within the MoE.

Yes, but if the poll is accurate, while the odds that the leader will win are less than 95% (or is it 98% - (I can't remember what percentage is two standard deviations out and which three)?), they probably are at least 80%-85%, enough to make it a "likely" call in my opinion, if the poll is accurate.

It's 95%, yeah.  A +/-5% MoE applies to both values, so the full MoE of here (if I'm not mis-remembering my stats) is double the margin of the poll.  I think statistical significance is an annoying concept because, as you say, it misleads people into thinking a poll is only worthwhile if it reaches statistical significance.  It's not.  It's very useful to know there's an 80% chance of a lead, especially if you have multiple polls saying the same thing.  However, I'd say "well more than a 1-in-20 chance that a poll's lead is solely based on statistical noise" doesn't reasonably translate into "dominating."  Nor does +5%, really, even if it was a perfect poll with no MoE.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on May 24, 2012, 05:35:16 PM
Great turnout piece on Wisconsin.



http://www.polisci.wisc.edu/Uploads/Documents/wisc/fowler-turnout-was-the-key-factor-in-the-april-2011-wisconsin-supreme-court.pdf




The Republicans nowadays are putting up enormous landslide margins in Waukesha, Washington, Ozuakee, and suburban Milwaukee. Had George W. Bush done so he would have won the state.

Dem turnout in Madison was abnormally high, and Dem turnout in Milwaukee City was abnormally low. Of course those net out.


No wonder Barrett is losing. He's getting drenched in the suburbs and the rurals.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 25, 2012, 10:56:09 AM
No wonder Barrett is losing. He's getting drenched in the suburbs and the rurals.
Yea, outside of Milwaukee and Madison Barrett is a joke. 

The growth of the 'WOW' counties  (Waukesha, Ozuakee, Washington) may eventually completely counterbalance Milwaukee and Madison.     

I Noticed the 'Norwegian Classic ethnic settlement areas' Went 47% for Walker in 2010.  It isn't all that important, but I am often frustrated that these areas are moving so incredibly slow toward the republican party.  Would it kill them to pick up the pace?!  Once they become majority GOP the western congressional district around La Crosse will flip and every region of the state will be majority republican -- except Dane County.   


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on May 25, 2012, 12:51:28 PM
No wonder Barrett is losing. He's getting drenched in the suburbs and the rurals.
Yea, outside of Milwaukee and Madison Barrett is a joke.  

The growth of the 'WOW' counties  (Waukesha, Ozuakee, Washington) may eventually completely counterbalance Milwaukee and Madison.      

I Noticed the 'Norwegian Classic ethnic settlement areas' Went 47% for Walker in 2010.  It isn't all that important, but I am often frustrated that these areas are moving so incredibly slow toward the republican party.  Would it kill them to pick up the pace?!  Once they become majority GOP the western congressional district around La Crosse will flip and every region of the state will be majority republican -- except Dane County.    

Indeed, and speaking about trends, here is the Leip's trend map for Wisconsin for 2008.  You can see it is just awash with glorious shades of red, with only those pesky "Norwegian" regions (along with that food stamp nation Indian reservation, and what is that commie-lib county again just west of Milwaukee?) refusing to get about the business of gradually weaning themselves from the socialist agenda.  Oh wait a minute, Leips thinks blue is red, and red is blue because he's color blind doesn't he?  Hmmm. Well back to predicting who Romney's VP candidate will be and how each and every county in the nation will go this November and by what margin I guess. That probably might be more productive than this.  

()


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 25, 2012, 02:29:42 PM
No wonder Barrett is losing. He's getting drenched in the suburbs and the rurals.
Yea, outside of Milwaukee and Madison Barrett is a joke.  

The growth of the 'WOW' counties  (Waukesha, Ozuakee, Washington) may eventually completely counterbalance Milwaukee and Madison.      

I Noticed the 'Norwegian Classic ethnic settlement areas' Went 47% for Walker in 2010.  It isn't all that important, but I am often frustrated that these areas are moving so incredibly slow toward the republican party.  Would it kill them to pick up the pace?!  Once they become majority GOP the western congressional district around La Crosse will flip and every region of the state will be majority republican -- except Dane County.    

Indeed, and speaking about trends, here is the Leip's trend map for Wisconsin for 2008.  You can see it is just awash with glorious shades of red, with only those pesky "Norwegian" regions (along with that food stamp nation Indian reservation, and what is that commie-lib county again just west of Milwaukee?) refusing to get about the business of gradually weaning themselves from the socialist agenda.  Oh wait a minute, Leips thinks blue is red, and red is blue because he's color blind doesn't he?  Hmmm. Well back to predicting who Romney's VP candidate will be and how each and every county in the nation will go this November and by what margin I guess. That probably might be more productive than this.  

()

That is a weird trend map.  I guess that's what it looks like when 10-15% of the Republican vote disappears. 
Tangential to the Norwegian factor, the 3 counties up by Deluth have 'weird' Finnish areas that have looney tune voting patterns.  I don't know if Lenin is running around agitating up there or what.  Fortunately it isn't a lot of votes, but it screws up the aesthetic of many statewide county maps.             


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 25, 2012, 09:24:09 PM
what the hell is this thread


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on May 25, 2012, 10:50:31 PM

Can I help you with something?  At least Wisconsin and Wales start with the same letter.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: CatoMinor on May 26, 2012, 12:01:08 AM

I lost track a while ago, but last I checked it was "The Official Herbert Hoover Recall Thread"


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 26, 2012, 05:35:29 AM

Can I help you with something?  At least Wisconsin and Wales start with the same letter.

Tried reading the last couple of pages again (now that it's a civilised hour and all that) and I'm still left bemused.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 26, 2012, 10:41:03 AM

Can I help you with something?  At least Wisconsin and Wales start with the same letter.

"The center of the political universe for the next week and a half thread" 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on May 30, 2012, 12:41:30 PM
Marquette: Walker + 7.


Yawn.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on May 31, 2012, 10:05:42 AM
The only way Walker can lose is if 10-14% of his supporters don't show up to vote. 

Did you see the undecided and unsure numbers?  1% and 2% LOL!

Walker owns the middle-independents and the right loves him.  The same middle is still supporting Obama, however.  Mitt might want to start running some ads and or visiting the state, pronto.  He has 7 to 10 points up for grabs with his name written on them.  I expect this post Walker victory.   


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on May 31, 2012, 04:01:59 PM
For some reason, I get tons of Walker email spam, no matter how much I try to put a stop to it (most asking for money of course).  Anyway, I got the email below, just in cash anyone wants to watch the debate tonight online. Enjoy.

()


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on May 31, 2012, 04:53:33 PM
Bill Clinton is going to Wisconsin to campaign for Barrett.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: greenforest32 on May 31, 2012, 06:04:19 PM
http://www.progressive.org/feingold_revs_up_crowd_for_barrett.html

Quote
Acknowledging Walker’s fundraising advantage, Barrett said: “He’s got the mountains of money. I’ve got you.”

:'(


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: California8429 on May 31, 2012, 10:14:37 PM
Any news about the debate?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Scottyp65 on May 31, 2012, 11:13:18 PM
Don't believe the latest Marquette polling numbers showing Walker up by 7.  The baseline assumptions in that poll are ridiculous.

If you look in the crosstabs, the poll gives about 32% weight to Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties.  These three counties represent about 10.7% of Wisconsin's population.  They do represent about 32% of greater Milwaukee's population, though.  Western and Northwestern Wisconsin, which are solidly democratic are way under-represented.  That's why he has a 7 point lead.  Nobody, and I mean nobody in the state thinks this is anything but a tie race.  This poll is basically published to try and drive down democratic turnout.  Going into the race, there were only 1 - 2% undecideds, so a 6 point swing is fantasy.  Franklin, who runs the Marquette poll ALL BUT ADMITTED THIS in an interview.
Walkers latest ads about crime reporting in Milwaukee seem pretty, well, over the top and kind of desperate.  Barretts ads pounding on the John Doe investigation (which will probably result in an indictment) seem to be working.  Plus Dem cash finally coming in for ad wars.  Sense momentum is switching to Barrett.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on May 31, 2012, 11:17:45 PM
The latest fundraising is 2 to 1, 6 mil for Walker and 3 for Barett, so maybe this isn't over yet.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on May 31, 2012, 11:34:11 PM
I saw about 10 minutes of the debate, and thought Walker was eviscerating Barrett, as he explained that yes he cut taxes on business to try to get jobs, and yes cut education, but offset it with his reforms, and it has been offset in school districts that adopted him, and then pointed out that Barrett has never been specific as to how he would have obeyed the law, and balanced a 3.5 billion dollar deficit (which is huge per capita, about the same as the current CA meltdown), as he, Walker had to do (thus all those cuts), making tough choices, and I thought, well, on these issues I feel so strongly, and am so biased, that it is pointless for me to watch any further, and I switched to something more adult rated.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 01, 2012, 09:15:27 AM
Walkers latest ads about crime reporting in Milwaukee seem pretty, well, over the top and kind of desperate
If you made a list of Tom Barrett accomplishments over his 8 years as Mayor of Milwaukee (I supported him), hiring a decent police chief is just about the only thing on the list.  So the fact that Chief Flynn and Barrett have lied about crime statistics undercuts Barrett's only accomplishment. 

It isn't desperation it is literally the exact opposite, the ad destroys the only thing Barrett had on his resume.         

Quote
Barretts ads pounding on the John Doe investigation (which will probably result in an indictment) seem to be working.  Plus Dem cash finally coming in for ad wars.  Sense momentum is switching to Barrett.
I love how you projected the desperation of Barrett's 'John Doe' hail marry onto the Walker body punch, which is pretty meat and potatoes.  Their has been zero indication that Walker did anything wrong, will be indicted(LOL), or should even be mentioned in connection with a fishing expedition involving a vast array of nit-picking.  The only serious thing was an embezzler --who Walker suspected and directed the DA to look into in the first place.  So, the John Doe on substance speaks to Walker's management skills --and that's all the dems have going?  --definition of desperation.       


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on June 01, 2012, 11:55:38 AM
Don't believe the latest Marquette polling numbers showing Walker up by 7.  The baseline assumptions in that poll are ridiculous.

If you look in the crosstabs, the poll gives about 32% weight to Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties.  These three counties represent about 10.7% of Wisconsin's population.  They do represent about 32% of greater Milwaukee's population, though.  Western and Northwestern Wisconsin, which are solidly democratic are way under-represented.  That's why he has a 7 point lead.  Nobody, and I mean nobody in the state thinks this is anything but a tie race.  This poll is basically published to try and drive down democratic turnout.  Going into the race, there were only 1 - 2% undecideds, so a 6 point swing is fantasy.  Franklin, who runs the Marquette poll ALL BUT ADMITTED THIS in an interview.
Walkers latest ads about crime reporting in Milwaukee seem pretty, well, over the top and kind of desperate.  Barretts ads pounding on the John Doe investigation (which will probably result in an indictment) seem to be working.  Plus Dem cash finally coming in for ad wars.  Sense momentum is switching to Barrett.


Wisconsin is roughly 5.7 million people. 2.3 million live in the Milwaukee DMA, ~600k in Milwaukee, and ~1.7 milllion outside of it. 1.7 million out of 5.7 million is 30%. Madison DMA and the City of Milwaukee itself are also slightly overrepresented.



Of course, if you're a liberal you can just go with the internal polls rather than the public polls. Shrug.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 01, 2012, 01:11:51 PM
Wisconsin is roughly 5.7 million people. 2.3 million live in the Milwaukee DMA, ~600k in Milwaukee, and ~1.7 milllion outside of it. 1.7 million out of 5.7 million is 30%. Madison DMA and the City of Milwaukee itself are also slightly overrepresented.
I thought of those numbers (roughly) as I read his post.  The poll showed Obama with a 8-10% lead... so, if anything it was oversampling dems.  Lacrosse and Duluth isn't were the population is or were the uber-hyper motivated voters are.  That would be Dane county on the dem side and the WOW counties and Milwaukee suburbs on the GOP side.   


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on June 01, 2012, 04:03:45 PM
Wisconsin is roughly 5.7 million people. 2.3 million live in the Milwaukee DMA, ~600k in Milwaukee, and ~1.7 milllion outside of it. 1.7 million out of 5.7 million is 30%. Madison DMA and the City of Milwaukee itself are also slightly overrepresented.
I thought of those numbers (roughly) as I read his post.  The poll showed Obama with a 8-10% lead... so, if anything it was oversampling dems.  Lacrosse and Duluth isn't were the population is or were the uber-hyper motivated voters are.  That would be Dane county on the dem side and the WOW counties and Milwaukee suburbs on the GOP side.   

His mistake was thinking that Milwaukee MSA only includes those 3 counties.


Heck, Prosser did exceptional in Milwaukee County outside of Milwaukee. That's 300k people. The fact that the poll overestimates Milwaukee City by 2% and Madison MSA by 2% makes it quite Dem friendly.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Scottyp65 on June 01, 2012, 08:13:47 PM
Wisconsin is roughly 5.7 million people. 2.3 million live in the Milwaukee DMA, ~600k in Milwaukee, and ~1.7 milllion outside of it. 1.7 million out of 5.7 million is 30%. Madison DMA and the City of Milwaukee itself are also slightly overrepresented.

Nice job making a bunch of numbers up.  Hope the math didn't take you too long.
The population of Milwaukee metro from US Census estimated end of 2011 is about 1.56 million.  600k in milwaukee. 950k in suburbs.
Go back and read my entry.  I didn't say the suburbs were over represented at 32%, I said Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties were.  THEY make up 10.7% of the population.  I am sure a poll that weighed Dane county at 32% of the vote would show Barrett ahead by 7.  Quit making up numbers and misrepresenting my clearly written post to try and prove a point


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Scottyp65 on June 01, 2012, 08:17:09 PM
I saw about 10 minutes of the debate, and thought Walker was eviscerating Barrett, as he explained that yes he cut taxes on business to try to get jobs, and yes cut education, but offset it with his reforms, and it has been offset in school districts that adopted him, and then pointed out that Barrett has never been specific as to how he would have obeyed the law, and balanced a 3.5 billion dollar deficit (which is huge per capita, about the same as the current CA meltdown), as he, Walker had to do (thus all those cuts), making tough choices, and I thought, well, on these issues I feel so strongly, and am so biased, that it is pointless for me to watch any further, and I switched to something more adult rated.

Had you watched more, Barrett came back and by most non partisan accounts won the debate.  He hammered Walker on the dead baby ad that basically left Walker kind of stunned for the last part of the debate.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: greenforest32 on June 01, 2012, 08:19:22 PM
Where can you watch the May 31st debate online? C-span isn't hosting it: http://www.c-span.org/Campaign2012/Events/Wisconsin-Governors-Recall-Election-Final-Debate/10737431132/

Quote
Due to station restrictions, the debate can not seen at c-span.org.  


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Scottyp65 on June 01, 2012, 08:21:58 PM
If you made a list of Tom Barrett accomplishments over his 8 years as Mayor of Milwaukee (I supported him), hiring a decent police chief is just about the only thing on the list.  So the fact that Chief Flynn and Barrett have lied about crime statistics undercuts Barrett's only accomplishment.  It isn't desperation it is literally the exact opposite, the ad destroys the only thing Barrett had on his resume. 

Its not his going after the reporting error, its how he did it showing a dead baby with Barretts name pasted on it.  
Thats what was over the line, not the core mis-reporting issue.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on June 01, 2012, 08:25:17 PM
Wisconsin is roughly 5.7 million people. 2.3 million live in the Milwaukee DMA, ~600k in Milwaukee, and ~1.7 milllion outside of it. 1.7 million out of 5.7 million is 30%. Madison DMA and the City of Milwaukee itself are also slightly overrepresented.

Nice job making a bunch of numbers up.  Hope the math didn't take you too long.
The population of Milwaukee metro from US Census estimated end of 2011 is about 1.56 million.  600k in milwaukee. 950k in suburbs.
Go back and read my entry.  I didn't say the suburbs were over represented at 32%, I said Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties were.  THEY make up 10.7% of the population.  I am sure a poll that weighed Dane county at 32% of the vote would show Barrett ahead by 7.  Quit making up numbers and misrepresenting my clearly written post to try and prove a point


Bzzzt, wrong. You still don't seem to have figured out that the Milwaukee DMA consists of more than those 3 counties. The poll identifies 32% of the vote coming from the Milwaukee DMA outside the city.


I'm not surprised, though. This poll is quite in line with about a dozen other polls.


http://www.journalinteractive.com/markets/milwaukee/

Home to over 2.2 million people, the Milwaukee DMA is the largest population center in Wisconsin. 571,800 people live in city of Milwaukee, the nation's 26th largest city ranking ahead of Las Vegas, Nashville and Portland.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Scottyp65 on June 01, 2012, 08:31:49 PM
I love how you projected the desperation of Barrett's 'John Doe' hail marry onto the Walker body punch, which is pretty meat and potatoes.  Their has been zero indication that Walker did anything wrong, will be indicted(LOL), or should even be mentioned in connection with a fishing expedition involving a vast array of nit-picking. 

I can't understand how you can possibly come to that conclusion, unless right wing talk radio is your only news source.  Virtually all of the people who reported to him as Milw. county commish have been indicted.  Most for campaigning on work time.  If you take the annual salary of these positions, Walker basically stole this money from Milwaukee county and used it as campaign cash.  Thats what this amounts to.  The only thing left is to directly connect Walker to the embezzlement, which is why they want the emails and why Walker is fighting to not turn them over.  An indictment is only a matter of time.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Scottyp65 on June 01, 2012, 08:43:12 PM
Home to over 2.2 million people, the Milwaukee DMA is the largest population center in Wisconsin. 571,800 people live in city of Milwaukee, the nation's 26th largest city ranking ahead of Las Vegas, Nashville and Portland.

I'm using numbers from US Census Bureau metropolitan and micropolitan areas.  I have no idea where JS is getting 2.2 million in the designated market area.  Perhaps one is used more commercially for TV ratings or something.  I have lived here all my life and never heard Milwaukee metro referred to as being over 2 million people.  Thats why I thought you were making the numbers up.  Apologize for that.  We are coming at it from two different number sets.    


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 02, 2012, 08:31:06 AM
I love how you projected the desperation of Barrett's 'John Doe' hail marry onto the Walker body punch, which is pretty meat and potatoes.  Their has been zero indication that Walker did anything wrong, will be indicted(LOL), or should even be mentioned in connection with a fishing expedition involving a vast array of nit-picking. 

I can't understand how you can possibly come to that conclusion, unless right wing talk radio is your only news source.  Virtually all of the people who reported to him as Milw. county commish have been indicted.  Most for campaigning on work time.  If you take the annual salary of these positions, Walker basically stole this money from Milwaukee county and used it as campaign cash.  Thats what this amounts to.  The only thing left is to directly connect Walker to the embezzlement, which is why they want the emails and why Walker is fighting to not turn them over.  An indictment is only a matter of time.

Some of the errors in your statement are in bold.

1 guy embezzled (not yet convicted because this investigation has gone on forever, for no justifiable reason) and was discovered because Walker suspected it. 

1 nice old grandma--county employee was charged with doing political work on county time for the sin of reading the Journal Sentinel online and posting some honest comments below the article favorable about her boss.

2 employees is a far cry from "Virtually all of the people who reported to him"

The emails were not sent to Walker.  He doesn't have them.  The conspiracy theory is that his staff had a secret email network.  How can you turn over something you don't have and may not exist? 

You left out the "Bid rigging" where no bid was awarded to anybody... LOL, that was a new one. 

Their is no such thing as an indictment in Wisconsin.  You get charged with a crime.  I wonder if the Barrett campaign is using that term so they aren't guilty of libel/slander technically or something.   


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 02, 2012, 08:43:44 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHQ96z110WA&t=28m13s
Barrett admits he doesn't think Walker did anything wrong. 

Amazing how his entire campaign is relying on misleading people to believe something he publicly admits that he believes not to be true.     


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 02, 2012, 08:47:46 AM
Where can you watch the May 31st debate online? C-span isn't hosting it: http://www.c-span.org/Campaign2012/Events/Wisconsin-Governors-Recall-Election-Final-Debate/10737431132/

Quote
Due to station restrictions, the debate can not seen at c-span.org.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTUwV4BEZK4
here is the audio. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 02, 2012, 12:04:31 PM
Anybody wanna bet this ends up a lot closer than the polls are showing it to be?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 02, 2012, 12:08:00 PM
LIKE WHAT 52% - 48%? 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 02, 2012, 12:32:26 PM

I'm thinking more like a 51%-49% Walker victory personally.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 02, 2012, 06:54:17 PM

I'm thinking more like a 51%-49% Walker victory personally.
Yea, Walker is sitting on something like 50.5% to 55%.  He has been there since the 2010 campaign 3 years ago.  The only brief dip below may have been when people were confused as to way an insurrection was occurring.  Given how substance free his opposition has been I can't see him getting under 50.5%.       


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on June 02, 2012, 08:55:39 PM
Anybody wanna bet this ends up a lot closer than the polls are showing it to be?

Yes, a Barrett victory is still a major possibility at this point. He's had significant momentum over the past week and a major GOTV effort is out in full force in MKE and Madison.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 02, 2012, 09:35:15 PM
what momentum?  People are wondering how much he's damaged himself for the future. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Tender Branson on June 03, 2012, 08:59:30 AM
PPP to release a final WI recall poll tonight between 11pm and midnight Eastern.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 03, 2012, 09:10:13 AM
PPP to release a final WI recall poll tonight between 11pm and midnight Eastern.

Highlight of a lazy Sunday? Probably.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Tender Branson on June 03, 2012, 12:07:55 PM
"Based on our first day of calls in Wisconsin Walker is ahead, but closer than the Marquette poll earlier this week."


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Tender Branson on June 03, 2012, 12:12:04 PM
If it's Walker+3 or +4, then it might become a close race. Walker already overpolled by 3-4% in 2010, so with higher turnout than in 2010 everything could be possible. Eraserhead's 51-49 Walker prediction might not be too bad.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Incipimus iterum on June 03, 2012, 12:34:03 PM
idk who will win but the poll will probably be the factor and it depends on how Barret does in the urban, and Rural areas


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on June 03, 2012, 01:05:52 PM
Here comes PPP to help Barrett with the narrative.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 03, 2012, 01:26:36 PM
If it's Walker+3 or +4, then it might become a close race. Walker already overpolled by 3-4% in 2010, so with higher turnout than in 2010 everything could be possible. Eraserhead's 51-49 Walker prediction might not be too bad.

The situation is a little different from 2010. Wouldn't Walker possibly underpoll these days given the stigma that would come with supporting someone possibly being removed from office before the end of their term? Those opposed to the recall really have been a silent majority. It leads me to believe there are more people in those ranks but they feel that they have to say they support the recall (for job reasons among others).


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 03, 2012, 01:42:18 PM
Last time PPP/MLS released close together, MLS had Walker 51/45 and PPP 50/45. So I'm guessing Walker 49/45 or something like that.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on June 03, 2012, 02:09:40 PM
I'm guessing that Barrett will lead the last day or two of polling and that the poll in sum will be tied. Based off of typical Jensen wordplay I bet PPP will have been in the field for 3 days and Walker only led the first day.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part but I find it difficult to believe that most polls thus far have shown a turnout model even more favorable to Republicans than 2010 when early voting and the rate of absentee ballots being requested suggests turnout levels approaching 2008 levels.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 03, 2012, 02:51:37 PM
Possible last minute bombshell:

http://www.uppitywis.org/blogarticle/university-minnesota-scientist-drops-bombshell-about-walker-says


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 03, 2012, 02:54:35 PM
Possible last minute bombshell:

http://www.uppitywis.org/blogarticle/university-minnesota-scientist-drops-bombshell-about-walker-says

LOL

Last minute extreme desperation!


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 03, 2012, 03:14:09 PM
If it's Walker+3 or +4, then it might become a close race. Walker already overpolled by 3-4% in 2010, so with higher turnout than in 2010 everything could be possible. Eraserhead's 51-49 Walker prediction might not be too bad.

The situation is a little different from 2010. Wouldn't Walker possibly underpoll these days given the stigma that would come with supporting someone possibly being removed from office before the end of their term? Those opposed to the recall really have been a silent majority. It leads me to believe there are more people in those ranks but they feel that they have to say they support the recall (for job reasons among others).
I take it you haven't seen comments on news article's and youtube videos of Walker supporters.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 03, 2012, 03:37:12 PM
If it's Walker+3 or +4, then it might become a close race. Walker already overpolled by 3-4% in 2010, so with higher turnout than in 2010 everything could be possible. Eraserhead's 51-49 Walker prediction might not be too bad.

The situation is a little different from 2010. Wouldn't Walker possibly underpoll these days given the stigma that would come with supporting someone possibly being removed from office before the end of their term? Those opposed to the recall really have been a silent majority. It leads me to believe there are more people in those ranks but they feel that they have to say they support the recall (for job reasons among others).
I take it you haven't seen comments on news article's and youtube videos of Walker supporters.

No, I don't waste time on idiocy/YouTube comments.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Svensson on June 03, 2012, 04:01:06 PM
Possible last minute bombshell:

http://www.uppitywis.org/blogarticle/university-minnesota-scientist-drops-bombshell-about-walker-says

LOL

Last minute extreme desperation!

Objectively: don't count on this not changing the game. It was a last-minute(read: within two days of the election) bombshell that sunk Eli Bebout in Wyoming and got Dave Freudenthal elected.

Don't count any election as "in the bag" until you see the results.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: DrScholl on June 03, 2012, 04:45:12 PM
The deadbeat father is a different Scott Walker that is listed in the court records, unfortunately.

As for the election, I still think there is a chance we could see a surprising result.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 03, 2012, 06:07:53 PM
It also just dawned on me that the recall is in TWO DAYS! I'm excited (and a nerd)!
...I have to vote AGAIN, so that my candidate wins AGAIN.  I will probably set a record for votes in a year that I won't break for the rest of my life.  The really good thing about meeting the President of the United States is the FOOD. They put you in this little room with just about anything you'd want to eat or drink. But since, number one, I wasn't hungry, but THIRSTY, and number two, they was free, I must have drank me about fifteen Dr. Peppers.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 03, 2012, 06:20:04 PM
The PPP poll will actually be the first one in a while. The Marquette University poll was done 5/23-5/26.

I will be surprised if this doesn't end up pretty close. It'd be absolutely priceless if Walker actually lost but I'd still only give that a 1/4 chance of happening at best.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Scottyp65 on June 03, 2012, 06:39:25 PM
At the start of this, the undecideds were never more than 2-3%.  Polls showing Walker with a 5 or 6 point lead are wrong.  People aren't changing their mind.  It is much more about turnout.  If Dems can really drive turnout in Milwaukee, Barrett will win.  If turnout in Milwaukee is at the Kloppenburg/Prosser level, Walker will win.

I know a lot of people on both sides and not one has changed their mind how they will vote.  You really either love walker or hate him.  I wouldn't believe anyone claiming to have changed people's minds.  The winner will have a bit over 50%.  The loser will have a bit under.

There is indeed a feeling that Barrett is coming from behind, but again, with so few undecideds, I don't know that means much.  I am guessing a call will not be made until at least 10 pm, assuming Waukesha county doesn't show any irregularities.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 03, 2012, 07:55:42 PM
scottyp,
People are polarized yes, but many non-republicans are rightfully mad at the fact that the recall is happening.  They also have witnessed the countless blunders and boorish behavior by the leftists.  Combine that with the substance free campaign the dems have run and these people will effectively block a Barrett victory by not voting, voting for the first time, or crossing over to Walker.  If not for this phenomenon I wouldn't feel as confident as I do.  Barrett has virtually no path to victory, their aren't enough votes out there for him.  If he won 100% of the undecideds at this point he would still lose.           


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on June 03, 2012, 10:05:45 PM
Hot off the presses:

()


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 03, 2012, 10:13:54 PM
Yes, feeling pretty good about my 51%-49% Walker prediction indeed. Looks like it could be an interesting night after all.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Oakvale on June 03, 2012, 10:18:58 PM
I'm going to allow myself to hold out a little hope.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 03, 2012, 11:06:56 PM
The map is going to be pretty damn similar to the 2010 one, no matter what. It'll be interesting to see what (if anything) looks different.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Tender Branson on June 04, 2012, 12:09:47 AM
Angus Reid (internet poll of 524 registered voters):

53-47 Walker

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/2012.06.03_Wisconsin.pdf


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 04, 2012, 12:12:01 AM
The map is going to be pretty damn similar to the 2010 one, no matter what. It'll be interesting to see what (if anything) looks different.

I'd be surprised if Walker wins La Crosse again this time.

Feingold won La Crosse too. I'm wondering who could possibly vote Walker/Feingold.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on June 04, 2012, 12:27:54 AM
What is Angus Reid's track record like?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 04, 2012, 12:43:12 AM
It's an internet poll so...


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on June 04, 2012, 12:51:39 AM
I'm changing my prediction to Walker by .5

edit: I changed it again for the last time.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 04, 2012, 08:04:56 AM
Sticking with Walker at 51-52%.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 04, 2012, 10:44:26 AM
The map is going to be pretty damn similar to the 2010 one, no matter what. It'll be interesting to see what (if anything) looks different.

I'd be surprised if Walker wins La Crosse again this time.

Feingold won La Crosse too. I'm wondering who could possibly vote Walker/Feingold.
It's been going on forever.  Look at the old Thompson/Feingold ticket splitting.  Probably has something to do with the Madison media market and my "Norwegian theory."   


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 04, 2012, 10:47:30 AM
Stuff coming across my desk pertaining to the recall:

The #WIUnionDesperation twitter hashtag is hilarious.  Examples: Scott Walker was the one who suggested that Fonzi "jump the shark" and Scott Walker created the BCS!
Some are wisconsin-centric like: Scott Walker HATES kringle and Scott Walker told T. J. Rubley to call an audible. Or  Scott Walker once ate cheese from California!
Intrade has Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 93.0% to win @Intrade -

Waukesha Students Stand With Walker
http://thedinnertableblog.wordpress.com/2012/06/04/waukesha-students-stand-with-walker/

#recall desperation

Moment of Decision: Turnout models favor GOP incumbent in WI recall
http://freebeacon.com/moment-of-decision/

On eve of Wis. recall, one thing is clear: Romney will add state to its targeted list-for now http://nyti.ms/K8CaH8 #wirecall

MacIver Institute ‏@MacIverWisc
See chart -> Big Labor will spend in excess of $20 million in reportable expenditures for the recall #wiright...http://fb.me/Wk9KRJ2h

Bummer. Democrat’s Walker Love Child Story Falls Apart… In About an Hour http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/06/bummer-democrats-walker-love-child-story-falls-apart-in-a-little-over-an-hour/

Union head likens Walker reforms to 9/11 attacks. Obama national co-chair defends it http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/jesse-jackson-rallies-party-faithful-wisconsin_646471.html

The stakes in the Wisconsin recall. - http://WSJ.comhttp://on.wsj.com/M1oUJl

PPP results in #WIRECALL are inconsistent. Why is his approval rating (51 percent) higher than his vote number (50)? 

the fact that PPP isn't telegraphing the result means it's seriously bad hews for Barrett. They love to hype the good polls. Barrett's campaign is already tweeting their tracking polls, which is their usual effort at counter spin.

Walker responds to Dem "love child" attacks, calling them "sickening" and "crap." Predicts they will backfire. http://bit.ly/LdXmvx

 WOW... look at this HUGE #wiunion crowd for Barrett at Jesse Jackson event http://yfrog.com/ntob5eij

George Will: Wisconsin's Peter Pan Progressivism: http://wapo.st/JYmqgx”

900 show up for Clinton yesterday, 4,000 in Racine today for Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch

Chicago and Boston will focus on how big Walker wins.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnellis/the-number-that-will-matter-in-wisconsin-5krk

Finally a piece on the boyscout son of a preacher: Scott Walker. 
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/301648/preachers-son-robert-costa

 @RepPaulRyan: "On Tuesday, we save Wisconsin. And in November, Wisconsin saves America."

http://www.wigderson.com/index.php/2012/06/03/how-disgusting-and-low-will-the-democrats-go/


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on June 04, 2012, 11:00:56 AM
WAA has Walker +12 again.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Tender Branson on June 04, 2012, 01:36:30 PM
Time for my prediction:

51.13% Walker (+3.27)
47.86% Barrett
  1.01% Trivedi


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 04, 2012, 02:51:58 PM
Prediction
Walker: 50
Barrett: 48


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nhoj on June 04, 2012, 03:50:46 PM
I will say walker by three, which is pretty much what I have always been thinking even before PPPs last poll came out.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Dereich on June 04, 2012, 04:07:00 PM
Walker: 51
Barrett: 48


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Napoleon on June 04, 2012, 04:37:06 PM
Walker 54
Barrett 46


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Franzl on June 04, 2012, 05:07:06 PM
Depressing, but Walker will win by a stable margin. + ~7-9%


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Seattle on June 04, 2012, 07:38:38 PM
Walker, 51.5 - 48-.5


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 04, 2012, 09:16:52 PM
Final Prediction:

Walker 51.2%
Barrett 48.6%
Other guy .2%


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 04, 2012, 09:39:10 PM
Most likely range
 
Walker wins by 1 to 7
more likely 3 to 5

I'll pick 4 points

a X-factor variable is that 'other guy' is drawing from Barrett 0.5 to 2 % of the vote.

Walker:         52
Barrett:     < 47.5
Other guy:  > 0.5


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: greenforest32 on June 04, 2012, 11:31:49 PM
Does Wisconsin's election-day voter registration also apply to recall elections?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 04, 2012, 11:33:06 PM
I don't think it will matter since almost nobody will vote for him but does the other dude on the ballot seem like he leans to the left or the right?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on June 05, 2012, 06:00:45 AM
Does Wisconsin's election-day voter registration also apply to recall elections?

Didn't walker abolish same day registration.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Alcon on June 05, 2012, 07:25:27 AM
Does Wisconsin's election-day voter registration also apply to recall elections?

Didn't walker abolish same day registration.

Everything I'm finding says it still exists, but there's a new requirement to prove residency of about a month.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 09:03:49 AM
Does Wisconsin's election-day voter registration also apply to recall elections?

Didn't walker abolish same day registration.

Everything I'm finding says it still exists, but there's a new requirement to prove residency of about a month.
I'm 99.9% sure, same day registration is in effect. 

The only confusion is from some parts of the voter ID bill being in effect and other parts being under a temporary injunction from a Dane County judge. 

A part that is still in effect extended the residency requirement from approximately 10 days to a month.       


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 09:12:27 AM
I don't think it will matter since almost nobody will vote for him but does the other dude on the ballot seem like he leans to the left or the right?

He seems to be drawing almost entirely from Barrett.  It is probably more of a protest vote against the recall by 'non' republicans, than his positions.  

The guy has a heavy Indian (as in India) accent and his ads generally just take the other sides negative attacks and combine them.  Ex: Barrett's record in Milwaukee sucks and Walker made budget cuts, vote for me, if my policies don't work I'll return my pay.    


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on June 05, 2012, 09:30:29 AM
The GOP talked about getting rid of same-day registration, but in the end they didn't; it wasn't in the bill that introduced the photo ID requirement.

The new 28-day residency requirement, though, is particularly problematic for the current June election, since it is less than 28 days since the end of the academic year when many students left residence and returned to their home areas. This has caused a lot of confusion over where students are supposed to vote.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 09:31:05 AM
Turnout, in Republican areas early on, looks to be highest ever.  

People could be motivated/anxious to finally get it over with OR it is/will be legitimately the largest turnout.  ...Something to check tonight.  


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 09:42:01 AM
The GOP talked about getting rid of same-day registration, but in the end they didn't; it wasn't in the bill that introduced the photo ID requirement.

The new 28-day residency requirement, though, is particularly problematic for the current June election, since it is less than 28 days since the end of the academic year when many students left residence and returned to their home areas. This has caused a lot of confusion over where students are supposed to vote.

I don't want to pick a fight, but if you can't figure out how to register to vote (with Wisconsin's extremely [small L] liberal registration laws), than you shouldn't be in college or vote for that matter. 

State Residency is not Ward residency.  You can easily prove state residency AND Ward residency in a students case.  It is ONE SMALL extra step in an EXTREMELY permissive process. 

FYI, We almost never take people off the rolls, unless someone asks/demands to be, so just go to the easiest place (for you) that you are on the voter roll.  ex: your parent's house's ward.        


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: greenforest32 on June 05, 2012, 09:56:45 AM
Does Wisconsin's election-day voter registration also apply to recall elections?

Didn't walker abolish same day registration.

That was the Republicans in Maine and it was overturned by voters in a veto referendum: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Maine_Same-Day_Registration_Veto_Referendum,_Question_1_%282011%29


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on June 05, 2012, 10:18:51 AM
As the votes roll in tonight, and you see county returns, these mappies will give you a road map of who is doing what to whom for projection purposes. What would you do without me?  :P

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Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Wiz in Wis on June 05, 2012, 11:10:19 AM
What would you do without me? 

Indeed.
____________

Pardon the twitter lingo, but here are some turnout anecdotes I'm reading about on twitter. These are just anecdotes, and VERY early ones at that (it's still just 10 AM in Wisconsin).

RT @MacIverWisc: Oak Creek - wards 10-12 - line snakes through gym and out the door. Unprecedented. Went 65% walker in 2010

RT @Brand_Allen: That's Waukesha Co (went 71-28% for Walker in '10) RT @MenomoneePatch: In mini poll outside Falls library, Walker got 13/15 voters #WIrecall

RT @Brand_Allen This is in Milwaukee Co, voted 62-38% for Barrett in '10. RT @tosasoccerdad Huge lines at Underwood in #Tosa this morning. #WIrecall

RT @Brand_Allen Again, in Milwaukee Co (62-38% Barrett in '10) RT @ShorewoodPatch: At 8:24 a.m. in Shorewood. And they just keep coming. #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen That's Dane Co(68-31% for Barrett in '10). RT @lgoldrick25: 23 min wait for me to vote in Stoughton #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen This is in Ozaukee Co(69-31% for Walker in '10) MT @aterkel Pt Washington poll worker on #wirecall lines today:"never seen anything like it"

RT @Brand_Allen That's Winnebago Co (voted 54-44% for Walker in '10). #WIgov MT @PGDougSchneider #Appleton guy reported 25-min wait at poll #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen: Dane Co., a Barrett stronghold. MT @jrburns I was voter #492 at 9:30 in one of 2 polling places in Mt Horeb. In a town of 7,000 #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen: Green Co, voted 50-48% Barrett in '10. MT @sgm_glen: I was voter #148 at 7:30 AM at the Town of New Glarus. Big turnout! #wirecall #WIgov

...and a personal favorite
RT @CynicusPrime: Don't worry. All the Walker voters are still at work. ;-) MT @jason_manc Slightly concerned by Dem turnout anecdotes

Edited:
RT @Brand_Allen: Racine County, voted 56-43% Walker in '10. RT @kylemaichle52 153 voter count for Racine District 1-Ward 1 -#wiright #wivote #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen: Eau Claire Co. voted 50-49% Barrett in '10. RT @aliciayager Im #183 in Eau Claire at 10:30. Seems kinda slow #wirecall http://pic.twitter.com/j19a5PUd

RT @biggovt: Long Lines as Recall Voting Begins in Heavily Democratic Milwaukee: As polls opened this morning for #WIrecall http://t.co/zsG6fr6E

Jesus... I used to live in Tweet 1... If that's true, that is farking huge... and really bad news for Barrett. Of course, it sounds like everyone over 18 in the state plans on voting today.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 12:26:06 PM
Jesus... I used to live in Tweet 1... If that's true, that is farking huge... and really bad news for Barrett. Of course, it sounds like everyone over 18 in the state plans on voting today.
I think that is true of the Walker side.  Barrett will have high turnout in some wards, low in others.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on June 05, 2012, 12:45:51 PM
Getting ready to go vote. I'll come back with an update from my polling station.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 05, 2012, 12:51:25 PM
The GOP talked about getting rid of same-day registration, but in the end they didn't; it wasn't in the bill that introduced the photo ID requirement.

The new 28-day residency requirement, though, is particularly problematic for the current June election, since it is less than 28 days since the end of the academic year when many students left residence and returned to their home areas. This has caused a lot of confusion over where students are supposed to vote.

I don't want to pick a fight, but if you can't figure out how to register to vote (with Wisconsin's extremely [small L] liberal registration laws), than you shouldn't be in college or vote for that matter. 

State Residency is not Ward residency.  You can easily prove state residency AND Ward residency in a students case.  It is ONE SMALL extra step in an EXTREMELY permissive process. 

FYI, We almost never take people off the rolls, unless someone asks/demands to be, so just go to the easiest place (for you) that you are on the voter roll.  ex: your parent's house's ward.        
Uh...


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 12:53:21 PM
What would you do without me? 

Indeed.
____________

Pardon the twitter lingo, but here are some turnout anecdotes I'm reading about on twitter. These are just anecdotes, and VERY early ones at that (it's still just 10 AM in Wisconsin).

RT @MacIverWisc: Oak Creek - wards 10-12 - line snakes through gym and out the door. Unprecedented. Went 65% walker in 2010

RT @Brand_Allen: That's Waukesha Co (went 71-28% for Walker in '10) RT @MenomoneePatch: In mini poll outside Falls library, Walker got 13/15 voters #WIrecall

RT @Brand_Allen This is in Milwaukee Co, voted 62-38% for Barrett in '10. RT @tosasoccerdad Huge lines at Underwood in #Tosa this morning. #WIrecall

RT @Brand_Allen Again, in Milwaukee Co (62-38% Barrett in '10) RT @ShorewoodPatch: At 8:24 a.m. in Shorewood. And they just keep coming. #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen That's Dane Co(68-31% for Barrett in '10). RT @lgoldrick25: 23 min wait for me to vote in Stoughton #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen This is in Ozaukee Co(69-31% for Walker in '10) MT @aterkel Pt Washington poll worker on #wirecall lines today:"never seen anything like it"

RT @Brand_Allen That's Winnebago Co (voted 54-44% for Walker in '10). #WIgov MT @PGDougSchneider #Appleton guy reported 25-min wait at poll #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen: Dane Co., a Barrett stronghold. MT @jrburns I was voter #492 at 9:30 in one of 2 polling places in Mt Horeb. In a town of 7,000 #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen: Green Co, voted 50-48% Barrett in '10. MT @sgm_glen: I was voter #148 at 7:30 AM at the Town of New Glarus. Big turnout! #wirecall #WIgov

...and a personal favorite
RT @CynicusPrime: Don't worry. All the Walker voters are still at work. ;-) MT @jason_manc Slightly concerned by Dem turnout anecdotes

Edited:
RT @Brand_Allen: Racine County, voted 56-43% Walker in '10. RT @kylemaichle52 153 voter count for Racine District 1-Ward 1 -#wiright #wivote #wirecall

RT @Brand_Allen: Eau Claire Co. voted 50-49% Barrett in '10. RT @aliciayager Im #183 in Eau Claire at 10:30. Seems kinda slow #wirecall http://pic.twitter.com/j19a5PUd

RT @biggovt: Long Lines as Recall Voting Begins in Heavily Democratic Milwaukee: As polls opened this morning for #WIrecall http://t.co/zsG6fr6E

Jesus... I used to live in Tweet 1... If that's true, that is farking huge... and really bad news for Barrett. Of course, it sounds like everyone over 18 in the state plans on voting today.

It looks like turnout will be big in general though, which is obviously pretty good news for Barrett. If turnout had been low, we wouldn't even need to bother watching the results...


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Tender Branson on June 05, 2012, 12:54:20 PM
Huge turnout in Milwaukee:

Quote
Milwaukee calls in extra poll workers amid heavy turnout

Heavy turnout in Milwaukee led the city Election Commission to call out the reserves Tuesday.

Extra poll workers were sent to polling places at Becher Terrace, Bradley Tech High School, Keenan Health Center, Morse Middle School, Rufus King International School Middle Years Campus and Cass Street, 53rd Street, Grantosa and Parkview schools, said Sue Edman, the election commission’s executive director.

The backup workers were needed to handle long lines, partly because a significant number of new voters were registering at the polls, Edman said.

“We knew things would be busy, but we didn’t know how busy,” Edman said.

In some cases, poll workers were shifted from less-crowded polling places to busier ones, Edman said. In other cases, she used poll workers who had agreed to be on call or city administrators who had volunteered to help out, she said.

Voting machines broke down or jammed twice at New Hope Missionary Baptist Church and once each at Manitoba School and the OASIS Senior Center, Edman said. Each time, voters were asked to place their ballots in secure bins so that poll workers could feed them into the machines after they were repaired, usually within 15 or 20 minutes, she said.

That was a smaller number of voting machine problems than the city usually encounters, Edman said.

And confusion arose at the Zablocki Library, when poll workers told some registered voters their names weren’t listed in the poll books.

The first time Megan Knudson went to vote, she was informed that her name did not appear in the poll book for Ward 260 and she was offered the opportunity to re-register.

“I chose to leave the polls,” Knudson said.

Redistricting is to blame for Knudson’s and other residents’ confusion, Edman said.

In previous rounds of redistricting, state law required county boards to draw supervisory district lines first. Then municipalities drew municipal ward lines and aldermanic district lines to avoid splitting wards between supervisory or aldermanic districts. Finally, the Legislature used the wards to build legislative and congressional districts.

But in 2011, the Legislature amended the law to let legislative redistricting take precedence, as Republican legislative leaders rushed to push their redistricting plan through before the first round of Senate recall elections. That forced county and municipal governments to re-draw their maps to conform to the state lines.

During the revision process, Milwaukee County officials accidentally left two city wards that were each split between two supervisory districts, one on the southwest side and one on the west side, Edman said. That included Ward 260, where part of the ward was temporarily designated 260Q, she said.

Poll workers in the recall primary were aware of the issue, but election officials forgot to tell those working in Tuesday’s election, Edman said. The workers did not know that a separate poll book had been printed for Ward 260Q and that it was behind the book printed for Ward 260, said Reid Magney, a spokesman for the state Government Accountability Board.

After she had learned from the Milwaukee Election Commission about the Ward 260Q situation, Knudson returned to the poll at the library. She explained the situation to a poll worker who found her name in the correct book.

“My main worry is that there would be many people in my situation, and they would not be comfortable advocating for themselves,” Knudson said.

Problems with the ward lines are expected to be corrected in time for the fall primary in August, Edman said.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/157252905.html#!page=1&pageSize=10&sort=newestfirst


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on June 05, 2012, 01:29:28 PM
At about 1:10pm I was the 356 voter at Madison School Board Offices, which is right next to the Kohl Center just off campus in downtown Madison. Unless people are planning on voting later tonight, this seems to be the effect of having the election during the summer and not during the school year.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on June 05, 2012, 01:32:21 PM
At about 1:10pm I was the 356 voter at Madison School Board Offices, which is right next to the Kohl Center just off campus in downtown Madison. Unless people are planning on voting later tonight, this seems to be the effect of having the election during the summer and not during the school year.

Woah, that is atrocious turnout. How many students stick around for the summer?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on June 05, 2012, 01:39:05 PM
No I idea on the number of students that decided to stay back. Hopefully the number goes up as the day goes on.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/turnout-just-wild-at-polling-stations-around-state/article_9eeda132-af21-11e1-8fdf-001a4bcf887a.html

Dane County could get to 80% to 88%! Add this with the huge turn out in Milwaukee and the Milwaukee suburbs and we could be approaching 2008 levels. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on June 05, 2012, 01:54:15 PM
This is is about what I am expecting the map to look like when it is all said and done

()


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 02:20:59 PM
Just realized (because i never thought of it) you could draw a north south line through where I live and never hit a democrat county.  That's about 280 miles from Illinois to the UP.   


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on June 05, 2012, 02:29:15 PM
Just realized (because i never thought of it) you could draw a north south line through where I live and never hit a democrat county.  That's about 280 miles from Illinois to the UP.   

You could almost do the same thing in the western part of the state and never hit a Republican county. The East-West divide of this state is crazy.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Tender Branson on June 05, 2012, 02:36:38 PM
More specific numbers:

Quote
Heavy turnout reported across Wisconsin

On a sunny summer day, Wisconsin voters packed the polls to decide the historic gubernatorial recall election.

No statewide figures were available, but local election officials offered fairly similar accounts of a heavy turnout in communities large and small, in both Democratic and Republican areas.

In many places, election officials said turnout was as strong as, or stronger than, it was for the 2010 gubernatorial election. A few even compared it to the 2008 presidential election.

With Wisconsin voters sharply - and almost evenly - divided between the candidates and few undecided, political observers believe turnout will hold the key to victory for either Republican Gov. Scott Walker or his Democratic challenger, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett.

Heavy turnout in Milwaukee led the city's Election Commission to call out the reserves.

Extra poll workers were sent to polling places at Becher Terrace, Bradley Tech High School, Keenan Health Center, Morse Middle School, Rufus King International School Middle Years Campus, and Cass Street, 53rd Street, Grantosa and Parkview schools, said Sue Edman, the election commission's executive director.

The backup workers were needed to handle long lines, partly because a significant number of new voters were registering at the polls, Edman said.

"We knew things would be busy, but we didn't know how busy," Edman said.

In some cases, poll workers were shifted from less-crowded polling places to busier ones, Edman said. In other cases, she used poll workers who had agreed to be on call or city administrators who had volunteered to help out, she said.

For Dane County, the other major Democratic stronghold, 27% of registered voters had cast ballots by 11 a.m., "definitely a larger turnout than 2010," County Clerk Karen Peters said.

But Walker's base also appeared to be turning out strongly. In the Village of Pewaukee, where the Republican beat Barrett by more than a 2-to-1 margin in 2010, 1,300 voters had cast ballots at the village's two voting sites by 11:15 a.m., in addition to 700 absentee ballots previously cast, according to Paul Boening, the village's deputy clerk. The village has 4,500 registered voters, of whom about 3,700 cast ballots in 2010, Boening said.

In Delafield there was a lunch-hour rush at Christ the King Lutheran Church, where by noon 2,076 voters, including absentees, had cast ballots.

Gina Gresch, the City of Delafield Clerk-Treasurer, said 4,688 voters are registered in the city. She said at least 100 new voters registered on Election Day. Delafield also went for Gov. Scott Walker by a better than 2 to 1 margin in 2010.

In Brown County, Deputy Clerk Sandy Juno said, "We're hearing from the (municipal) clerks that they feel the turnout today so far has been busier than what it was in the 2008 presidential election. We've had requests to print 15,000 additional ballots. As of yesterday, we had already printed over 100,000."

Washington County Clerk Brenda Jaszewski also reported heavy turnout.

For Paul and Susan Gouvion, the Tuesday morning traffic jam near Wilson Elementary School in Wauwatosa was a welcome sight. Cars were parked on both sides of side streets and busy Glenview Ave. outside the polling place."In all of the 50 years that we've lived here, we've never seen this many people voting," Susan Gouvion said. "This is really the American way. There are so many things that are important in this election."

Inside the school, the line stretched well out of the gym and had been that way all morning.

For Katie Nunag, the recall election day is also the date her second child is due to come along.

Although she was very pregnant, Katie walked three blocks to the polls at Wilson School, while pushing her 2-year-old daughter, Charlie, in a stroller.

"I've got to do my civic duty," she said cheerily. Also, she was hoping the walk might bring on labor.

Charlie was a bit disappointed that her mom was going to vote. She thought Katie had said they were going on a boat.

Few voting problems were reported. On its Twitter account, @Wisconsin_GAB, the state Government Accountability Board said police were called after a voting machine was found damaged in the Village of Rothschild in Marathon County.

In Milwaukee, voting machines broke down or jammed twice at New Hope Missionary Baptist Church and once each at Manitoba School and the OASIS Senior Center, Edman said. Each time, voters were asked to place their ballots in secure bins so that poll workers could feed them into the machines after they were repaired, usually within 15 or 20 minutes, she said.

That was a smaller number of voting machine problems than the city usually encounters, Edman said.

Heavy early voting in the recall election likely contributed to smooth going at polling places Tuesday, Milwaukee County Election Administrator Lisa Weiner said.

She said the first few hours of voting were reminiscent of the 2008 presidential election, when large numbers of absentee voters helped lead to few problems on election day.

"This is a repeat of 2008," said Weiner, who was working from the city election commission's offices. "The actual election day went very smoothly because the masses went to absentee voting."

Weiner said she hadn't received any reports of voting problems from municipal election clerks by 11 a.m.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/heavy-turnout-reported-across-wisconsin-gt5lvjr-157290805.html


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on June 05, 2012, 02:43:32 PM
I have two exams tomorrow. I don't even want to think about Scott Walker.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 02:46:58 PM
Just realized (because i never thought of it) you could draw a north south line through where I live and never hit a democrat county.  That's about 280 miles from Illinois to the UP.   
You could almost do the same thing in the western part of the state and never hit a Republican county. The East-West divide of this state is crazy.
historically I think the divide flipped parties a couple of times over issues like prohibition and allowing schools to teach in German. 

You also have a heavier concentration of industry/manufacturing consistantly, shore to 50-75 miles inland (from lake Michigan) running north south from Illinois to green bay.     


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: mondale84 on June 05, 2012, 02:47:53 PM
[url][http://m.host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/turnout-just-wild-at-polling-stations-around-state/article_9eeda132-af21-11e1-8fdf-001a4bcf887a.html/url]

Dane County Clerk says turnout "may reach 80 to 88 percent". Wow.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: minionofmidas on June 05, 2012, 02:54:04 PM
This is tonight? Great. I'll probably find out about the results in two days time.

Somehow I'd be even less surprised by a result on either outer edge of a Walker by 9 to Barrett by 1 corridor than it's middle.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 03:22:41 PM
It'll be interesting to see how much Walker's numbers on intrade bounce around as more turnout reports come in.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Tender Branson on June 05, 2012, 03:34:17 PM
Hahaha:

Quote
MILWAUKEE — Brenda Lewison was concerned. She was supervising a polling place located in what should be the very beating heart of the effort to replace Scott Walker. The polling place itself was inside the headquarters of the Milwaukee Public Schools. Down the block was the headquarters of the Milwaukee teachers union. Neither public schools nor the people who teach in them had fared well since Walker took over in 2011, and more than a few of the people who worked in both buildings had been out in front of the state capitol when the storm came 16 months earlier. And Tom Barrett himself voted only one district over that very morning. And Brenda was worried about running out of ballots. Not for Ward 202, but for Ward 203.

"This is what I did," she told the guy from the election board, who was sitting on a window sill, while an observer from the state Democratic party looked on. "I took the turnout from 2008 and 2010 and I averaged them, and I ordered 1100 ballots for 203. They sent me 700. And I'm also thinking that my own estimate was low. So, I sent something I thought was low, and they didn't even send me that many. The rest of them are back in the warehouse. Now, I'm thinking there's going to be a rush at about five o'clock when people get out of work, and they're telling me to call them when I get down to 100 ballots left. I'm going to call them when I have 200 ballots left, just to make sure there's enough time for them to get here."

Sometimes, I swear, given the way it runs its elections, the World's Greatest Democracy could elect Mr. Ed to something before anyone noticed.

And it all falls on people like Brenda, especially on a day like this, the culminating election of a superheated political contest that shows no signs of abating no matter who winds up winning. In addition to that, when Walker and the Republican legislature pushed through a voter-ID law, Brenda had to be trained in enforcing that, only to have all the work go for naught when a judge ruled in March that the law was unconstitutional. "It wasn't that bad," she said. "We just went back to the way it was before." With some adjustments. Earlier that morning, Brenda had to turn away a young woman who'd presented a proof-of-residence on her iPhone because the state requires a hard paper copy for that purpose. The young woman went home to get a copy of the lease on her apartment. "That's tough on young people," Brenda had said. "Most young people don't do anything on paper."

"The legislature made a list of the kind of ID's that were acceptable," she said. "Then, of course, that became useless because the law got stopped. So then they made a list of what kinds of proof-of-residence were acceptable."

The people kept coming. The pile of ballots grew smaller and smaller. Brenda kept her eye on it.

It was 11:30 a.m., and 525 people had voted.

Read more: http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/wisconsin-recall-voter-id-9451235#ixzz1wx9bEuJy


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 05, 2012, 03:40:59 PM
So I read that the exit pollsters are locked in a room until 5PM but after that all exit polling hell is going to break lose?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Simfan34 on June 05, 2012, 03:42:36 PM
No I idea on the number of students that decided to stay back. Hopefully the number goes up as the day goes on.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/turnout-just-wild-at-polling-stations-around-state/article_9eeda132-af21-11e1-8fdf-001a4bcf887a.html

Dane County could get to 80% to 88%! Add this with the huge turn out in Milwaukee and the Milwaukee suburbs and we could be approaching 2008 levels. 

Wouldn't students not be registered in WI but their home state?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Wiz in Wis on June 05, 2012, 03:44:02 PM
No I idea on the number of students that decided to stay back. Hopefully the number goes up as the day goes on.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/turnout-just-wild-at-polling-stations-around-state/article_9eeda132-af21-11e1-8fdf-001a4bcf887a.html

Dane County could get to 80% to 88%! Add this with the huge turn out in Milwaukee and the Milwaukee suburbs and we could be approaching 2008 levels. 

Wouldn't students not be registered in WI but their home state?

More likely their home town... most UW-System (even UW-Madison) students are Wisconsinites.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 05, 2012, 03:46:42 PM
No I idea on the number of students that decided to stay back. Hopefully the number goes up as the day goes on.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/turnout-just-wild-at-polling-stations-around-state/article_9eeda132-af21-11e1-8fdf-001a4bcf887a.html

Dane County could get to 80% to 88%! Add this with the huge turn out in Milwaukee and the Milwaukee suburbs and we could be approaching 2008 levels. 

Wouldn't students not be registered in WI but their home state?

More likely their home town... most UW-System (even UW-Madison) students are Wisconsinites.
This is an interesting question, are there more students in Wisconsin in summer or during school year? I know that Northeast gets more students from other regions obviously, but what about Midwest? Maybe school being out is an actual bonus to student turnout in WI? Also some schools aren't out yet, like we are having finals week here at UW here today, but I think we are really in minority here.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on June 05, 2012, 03:58:13 PM
No I idea on the number of students that decided to stay back. Hopefully the number goes up as the day goes on.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/turnout-just-wild-at-polling-stations-around-state/article_9eeda132-af21-11e1-8fdf-001a4bcf887a.html

Dane County could get to 80% to 88%! Add this with the huge turn out in Milwaukee and the Milwaukee suburbs and we could be approaching 2008 levels.  

Wouldn't students not be registered in WI but their home state?

You can register to vote in Wisconsin after living at your residency for 28 days (previously 10 days) so a lot of out of state students do vote in Wisconsin elections. I've heard that absentee ballots in Dane County are around 16,000, so maybe that's some of the students.  


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on June 05, 2012, 04:00:46 PM
No I idea on the number of students that decided to stay back. Hopefully the number goes up as the day goes on.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/turnout-just-wild-at-polling-stations-around-state/article_9eeda132-af21-11e1-8fdf-001a4bcf887a.html

Dane County could get to 80% to 88%! Add this with the huge turn out in Milwaukee and the Milwaukee suburbs and we could be approaching 2008 levels. 

Wouldn't students not be registered in WI but their home state?

More likely their home town... most UW-System (even UW-Madison) students are Wisconsinites.
This is an interesting question, are there more students in Wisconsin in summer or during school year? I know that Northeast gets more students from other regions obviously, but what about Midwest? Maybe school being out is an actual bonus to student turnout in WI? Also some schools aren't out yet, like we are having finals week here at UW here today, but I think we are really in minority here.

Probably more students during the school year. There is a big draw of students from Minnesota, because of the reciprocity agreement, and Illinois that come to school here in Wisconsin. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 04:24:45 PM
BREAKING

MSNBC just flashed some stuff from the first wave of exits:

Who will you vote for in November for President?

Obama 51%
Romney 45%

They flashed a few other numbers but I didn't catch it all... looked like most had a positive opinion of public employees but were evenly divided on collective bargaining.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 05, 2012, 04:29:03 PM

Who will you vote for in November for President?

Obama 51%
Romney 45%

Ouch for Romney. I don't know if that saves Barrett's case (I'm not thinking it does), but it makes Romney look bad.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Gass3268 on June 05, 2012, 04:31:52 PM
https://twitter.com/amybarrilleaux/status/210104858878033920

Amy at WTDY
‏@AmyBarrilleaux

Madison City Clerk tells me turnout is on pace to hit 119% in Madison, adding "That would be unprecedented."


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on June 05, 2012, 04:33:29 PM
[url][http://m.host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/turnout-just-wild-at-polling-stations-around-state/article_9eeda132-af21-11e1-8fdf-001a4bcf887a.html/url]

Dane County Clerk says turnout "may reach 80 to 88 percent". Wow.

You didn't finish reading the paragraph: "We could hit 80 to 88 percent," Dane county clerk Karen Peters told a reporter this morning. But minutes ago, Peters downgraded that projection in an interview with THE WEEKLY STANDARD. "We [originally] said 70 to 75 percent, and I think it's going to be more in the 75 percent range," Peters told me.

I thought all the University of Wisconsin students had split. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 05, 2012, 04:34:47 PM
BREAKING

MSNBC just flashed some stuff from the first wave of exits:

Who will you vote for in November for President?

Obama 51%
Romney 45%

They flashed a few other numbers but I didn't catch it all... looked like most had a positive opinion of public employees but were evenly divided on collective bargaining.
I'm guessing this is consistent with my 50-48 for W prediction, Obama numbers need to be at about 53 for Barrett to win.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 04:35:03 PM
This is looking pretty close to me based on what I'm seeing so far. Of course, early exit polling info isn't the most reliable, to say the least.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 05, 2012, 04:38:16 PM
Marquette had Obama up 8 in the same poll that had Walker up by 7, BTW.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 05, 2012, 04:39:25 PM
And dailykos is going crazy. In before Waukesha county clerk.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 05, 2012, 04:41:37 PM
Marquette had Obama up 8 in the same poll that had Walker up by 7, BTW.
Well PPP was 49-42 but it was Obama-McCain.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: mondale84 on June 05, 2012, 04:43:11 PM
This is going to be very, very close.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 04:45:17 PM
I'd love to meet someone who voted for Walker today and plans on voting for Obama in November. How does that work exactly?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 05, 2012, 04:49:44 PM
John King on CNN just said that 68% of today's voters were non-union members, 32% were union members. In 2010, it was 74% non-union member, 26% union member.

PS - It's only 4:30 in Wisconsin, and there's still 3.5 hrs of voting left. Why is the media breaking its self-imposed no-leaked exit polls before polls close rule?
I thought the media's imposed that rule only until 5.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 04:50:14 PM
The scary thing for Walker must be that it's not yet 5 PM there...


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 05, 2012, 04:52:07 PM
The scary thing for Walker must be that it's not yet 5 PM there...
?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on June 05, 2012, 04:53:33 PM
My history teacher today offered the interesting opinion that, "if Walker gets re-elected, he'll be the next President."


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas on June 05, 2012, 05:05:59 PM

? Yeah. Don't see how that only helps Barrett.

But besides that, CBS reports that 50% support the collective bargaining law in Wisconsin, per EARLY exits, 48% don't. But 60% of voters think recalls should only be done for misconduct.

What's likely to doom Barrett here is that centrist Dems and independents who may lean Obama in the fan are not a fan of the recall attempt, and some may vote to let Walker finish his term as part of that.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 05:08:25 PM
Workers tend to come out later on.

Anyway, CNN showed a bunch of new exit stuff. Basically looks like a 50-50 race right now.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 05:13:27 PM
Walker continues to move downward on intrade but it is a very slow and gradual fall.

My history teacher today offered the interesting opinion that, "if Walker gets re-elected, he'll be the next President."

Somehow I doubt that. I guess he doesn't put much stock in Mitt Romney though. :P


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on June 05, 2012, 05:16:11 PM
Walker continues to move downward on intrade but it is a very slow and gradual fall.

My history teacher today offered the interesting opinion that, "if Walker gets re-elected, he'll be the next President."

Somehow I doubt that. I guess he doesn't put much stock in Mitt Romney though. :P

Neither do I (put much stock in Romney). I think it'd be interesting to, four years from now, nominate that one super controversial governor. That'd make for an interesting political success story.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 05:18:19 PM
According to EARLY exits, 13% of the electorate is made up of 18-29 yr olds. It was 15% in 2010.

That's actually a little better than I would have thought. Obviously, Democrats can't depend on young people for a win in this one though.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Wiz in Wis on June 05, 2012, 05:23:17 PM
According to EARLY exits, 13% of the electorate is made up of 18-29 yr olds. It was 15% in 2010.

That's actually a little better than I would have thought. Obviously, Democrats can't depend on young people for a win in this one though.

Don't trust early exit polls overall... really don't trust internals of early exit polls. They're pretty much worthless.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 05:27:05 PM
According to EARLY exits, 13% of the electorate is made up of 18-29 yr olds. It was 15% in 2010.

That's actually a little better than I would have thought. Obviously, Democrats can't depend on young people for a win in this one though.

Don't trust early exit polls overall... really don't trust internals of early exit polls. They're pretty much worthless.

You're preaching to the choir. We have to talk about something though. :P


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 05:41:26 PM
Voted around 5:00.  Turnout at my Heavily Republican voting place is up over 60% from the primary and people are likely to pile in at a heavier rate after 5 as work ends.  Walker looks to be outperforming 2010.   


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 05:48:19 PM
Van Hollen/Falk race for Attorney General in 2006 proved Wisconsin exit pols favor dems by quite a bit.   


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 05:50:01 PM
Also, John King on CNN just said 37% of recall EARLY exit poll voters strongly support limiting collective bargaining rights (50% total support), and 38% strongly oppose it (48% total opposition).

Saw that earlier. That should indicate a 50-50 race or close to it, assuming those numbers actually hold up (or at least you'd think it would).


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 05:51:14 PM
have reports from polling locations on Milwaukee's South, North, East sides, and downtown and didn't have any lines/wait.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on June 05, 2012, 05:56:03 PM
Also, John King on CNN just said 37% of recall EARLY exit poll voters strongly support limiting collective bargaining rights (50% total support), and 38% strongly oppose it (48% total opposition).

Saw that earlier. That should indicate a 50-50 race or close to it, assuming those numbers actually hold up (or at least you'd think it would).

You would think that, although the exit poll stat I saw showing 60% of recall voters only think elected officials should be recalled in the event of misconduct would mean that a decent portion of those people who oppose limiting collective bargaining, also oppose the recall.

Many of those 60% believe that Walker misused his office and broke the law.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 06:02:16 PM
have reports from polling locations on Milwaukee's South, North, East sides, and downtown and didn't have any lines/wait.

Where are you getting that from?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on June 05, 2012, 06:04:27 PM
have reports from polling locations on Milwaukee's South, North, East sides, and downtown and didn't have any lines/wait.

Where are you getting that from?

His arse, everything I've read says that turnout is record breaking there: 200 new voters registered at one heavily Latino ward in central Milwaukee.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on June 05, 2012, 06:14:14 PM
Naturally, I'd be thrilled to see Walker recalled. I still think he'll narrowly hang on, though. I'd love to be wrong :P


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 05, 2012, 06:22:29 PM
What sort of awful exit poll doesn't include absentee/early voters?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: hawkeye59 on June 05, 2012, 06:23:25 PM
Fair point from Chuck Todd of NBC News, via twitter: Exit poll junkies, do you realize that some 10-12% of the electorate voted absentee in WI. Absentee voters not surveyed for exit poll.
Quite a few of which are college students.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: rob in cal on June 05, 2012, 06:29:26 PM
Also, with such a huge turnout, I wonder if the turnout model that the exit polls are using are skewed.  I'm also wondering if the size of the early/absentee vote is unprecedented, and thus being underreported by the exit polls.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 06:41:05 PM
In other news, a Madison CBS News reporter tweeted this: CBS exit poll: Of Barrett voters 53% vote for Barrett 45% against Walker. Of Walker voters 9/10 vote for Walker 8% against Barrett #wirecall

Wow, I'm surprised a majority of Barrett voters say they voted "for" him. Not exactly the most inspiring guy in the world.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 05, 2012, 06:42:29 PM
What sort of awful exit poll doesn't include absentee/early voters?

The whole point of an exit poll is that you POLL voters as they EXIT their polling location. How would you exit poll an absentee voter?

Exit pollsters generally include phone interviews of absentee/early voters, or else their numbers would be worthless.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 05, 2012, 06:47:45 PM
I wonder why Feingold declined to run, if 8% of Walker voters are voting against Walker, I am sure that number would be less if it was Feingold running. Also the base would be even more enthusiastic since probably 70 to 80% would be voting FOR Feingold.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 05, 2012, 06:47:59 PM
It's a tad late to be asking this, but were there any recent polls on the Lt. Gubernatorial recall?  I'd love to see that Sarah Palin lookalike lose her job today.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 05, 2012, 06:52:16 PM
Most polls have Kleefisch ahead by slightly smaller margins than Walker.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on June 05, 2012, 06:52:45 PM
Looks like Walker will win by a slightly smaller margin than in 2010.

The Senate races will be more interesting tbh.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Napoleon on June 05, 2012, 06:53:31 PM
I wonder why Feingold declined to run, if 8% of Walker voters are voting against Walker, I am sure that number would be less if it was Feingold running. Also the base would be even more enthusiastic since probably 70 to 80% would be voting FOR Feingold.

I think he is done with elected politics.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Smash255 on June 05, 2012, 07:06:10 PM
Anyone have any links to the results?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 05, 2012, 07:08:28 PM
CNN will have it live, but if you want Internet results Politico is usually the fastest.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Governor/2012/Primary/WI

Should also keep this as a separate tab- CNN's 2010 results map.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/county/#WIG00p1


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Phony Moderate on June 05, 2012, 07:08:50 PM
Anyone have any links to the results?

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nhoj on June 05, 2012, 07:23:16 PM
I decided to wait to vote tell now since I wanted to see what the approximate turnout would be. I was voter 391 in my township. for comparison the total turnout number for 2010 was 363, in 2008 the number was 486. So with about an hour left I will predict 401. :P


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nhoj on June 05, 2012, 07:35:27 PM
I decided to wait to vote tell now since I wanted to see what the approximate turnout would be. I was voter 391 in my township. for comparison the total turnout number for 2010 was 363, in 2008 the number was 486. So with about an hour left I will predict 401. :P


Thanks for that info. Mind telling us what county you live in?
Barron county. one of the more republican townships but I don't expect turnout to be much different county wide.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 07:37:05 PM
have reports from polling locations on Milwaukee's South, North, East sides, and downtown and didn't have any lines/wait.

Where are you getting that from?

His arse, everything I've read says that turnout is record breaking there: 200 new voters registered at one heavily Latino ward in central Milwaukee.

I wasn't talking about the entire day, just that point in time.  chill.  


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 07:38:36 PM
reports... GOP base votes in Ozaukee, Washington, Waukesha Counties are off the charts


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 05, 2012, 07:44:38 PM
reports... GOP base votes in Ozaukee, Washington, Waukesha Counties are off the charts

News is pretty consistent that turnout was high across the board. Good thing that in 15 minutes we'll start to get some real results.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 05, 2012, 07:45:37 PM
have reports from polling locations on Milwaukee's South, North, East sides, and downtown and didn't have any lines/wait.

Where are you getting that from?

His arse, everything I've read says that turnout is record breaking there: 200 new voters registered at one heavily Latino ward in central Milwaukee.

I wasn't talking about the entire day, just that point in time.  chill.  

Who was reporting simultaneously from five places in Milwaukee that no one was voting? I trust this is up on the web somewhere.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 05, 2012, 07:47:00 PM
People who post false rumours ought to be banned, IMO. And if that's what you are doing, then I'll lobby behind the scenes to do just that...


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 07:48:54 PM
have reports from polling locations on Milwaukee's South, North, East sides, and downtown and didn't have any lines/wait.

Where are you getting that from?

His arse, everything I've read says that turnout is record breaking there: 200 new voters registered at one heavily Latino ward in central Milwaukee.

I wasn't talking about the entire day, just that point in time.  chill.  

Who was reporting simultaneously from five places in Milwaukee that no one was voting? I trust this is up on the web somewhere.
Brookfield Elementary (wd11,12,13) 2,687 cast as of 5pm 2,982 cast there, total, in Nov 2010
 
...apparently Stephen Hayes was the source


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 05, 2012, 07:50:45 PM

Who was reporting simultaneously from five places in Milwaukee that no one was voting? I trust this is up on the web somewhere.
Brookfield Elementary (wd11,12,13) 2,687 cast as of 5pm 2,982 cast there, total, in Nov 2010
 
...apparently Stephen Hayes was the source
[/quote]

No offense, but have you ever worked an election in a city before? You get large numbers of people only after work. Do you think they stopped at 5.



Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 05, 2012, 07:53:53 PM
Precincts in Milwaukee are running out of ballots, according to MSNBC.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 07:56:46 PM

No offense, but have you ever worked an election in a city before? You get large numbers of people only after work. Do you think they stopped at 5.

if you have a question ask.  I obviously know that and FYI, Brookfield is a Republican suburb.  


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Dereich on June 05, 2012, 08:01:02 PM
CNN's exit poll is 50-50

For both races.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 05, 2012, 08:02:26 PM
hahahah

tonight's gonna be fun.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: argentarius on June 05, 2012, 08:04:01 PM
Intrade is unfazed by the exit poll.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 05, 2012, 08:04:15 PM
Where was that post someone made yesterday which showed "Dem-affiliated polls" giving Walker low single digits and unbiased polls giving him high single digits to +12?

We Ask America may not be the new gold standard of polling.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 05, 2012, 08:04:31 PM
Chuck Todd says:

Quote
We are officially saying WI is "too close to call"; Precinct exit data indicates total coin flip.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: cavalcade on June 05, 2012, 08:04:50 PM
I look forward to waiting up until 2 AM for Waukesha to finally start reporting.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on June 05, 2012, 08:05:14 PM
This might be a long night. I just started to read this thread, so I don't know any of the prior posts. But according to my grandmother, there is a high turnout of inner city African Americans for Barrett that was unexpected.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 05, 2012, 08:05:58 PM
Intrade is unfazed by the exit poll.
Give it time, It will definitely hit 75-25 at least at some point tonight.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: ajc0918 on June 05, 2012, 08:06:24 PM
How many Senate seats do Dems need to win to take the Senate?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 05, 2012, 08:09:00 PM
How many Senate seats do Dems need to win to take the Senate?

One.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 08:10:35 PM
Despite raising $30 million, Scott Walker's election night event is cash bar. That might actually justify a recall.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nichlemn on June 05, 2012, 08:11:22 PM
If Barrett wins, I sort of hope he gets recalled this term for the lulz.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 08:14:21 PM
Latest exit poll numbers for Obama v. Romney according to CNN:

Obama 54%
Romney 42%

LOL.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 05, 2012, 08:15:10 PM
IRC now.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 08:15:47 PM
Precincts in Milwaukee are running out of ballots, according to MSNBC.

They always say that so they can keep the polls open an extra few hours ...predictable.  


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: ajc0918 on June 05, 2012, 08:16:51 PM
Latest exit poll numbers for Obama v. Romney according to CNN:

Obama 54%
Romney 42%

LOL.

romney sux


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Dereich on June 05, 2012, 08:16:52 PM
So what's everyone watching on TV for results?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Kevinstat on June 05, 2012, 08:19:45 PM
Kleefisch is running well behind Walker.  Losing 61-39 now while Walker's up 54-46.

Just corrected an oopsie.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: ajc0918 on June 05, 2012, 08:20:11 PM
Kleefisch is running well behind Walker.  Losing 61-39 now while Walker's up 64-36.

Any thoughts why?



Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 05, 2012, 08:20:28 PM
Kleefisch is running well behind Walker.  Losing 61-39 now while Walker's up 64-36.

Wow.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 08:20:44 PM
Walker is running respectably in Madison suburbs
http://countyofdane.com/clerk/elect2012r2.html


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Progressive on June 05, 2012, 08:22:18 PM
Is there a CNN link w/ results? im comparing '10 v what i hope to see '12 maps


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Kevinstat on June 05, 2012, 08:22:42 PM
Kleefisch is running well behind Walker.  Losing 61-39 now while Walker's up 64-36.

Wow.

Well, I was off by 10 points (or 20 points margin-wise) on the Goober race (I meant to write 54-46 for Walker), but she was polling around 15% behind Walker (and Mahlon 15% ahead of Barrett).


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 05, 2012, 08:23:27 PM
The vote totals for Gov vs. Lt. Gov are totally different. It's apples and oranges.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Incipimus iterum on June 05, 2012, 08:24:48 PM
result 1.4% in:
Walker- 62.5
Barrett- 36.9


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Dereich on June 05, 2012, 08:25:50 PM
Its weird...the CNN exit poll had the Lt. Gov race as 50-50 also. Is the exit poll wrong on just one race?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 08:25:59 PM
Kleefisch is running well behind Walker.  Losing 61-39 now while Walker's up 64-36.

Any thoughts why?


I expected she would have a slight under-vote.   People may be unaware this is different than every other governors ballot and Lt Gov is voted on separately instead of as a ticket with gov.  


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 08:26:37 PM
It definitely feels like the Walker people are still more confident than the Barrett people (for now).


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on June 05, 2012, 08:27:55 PM
Lol, 16% of Dane is in and its Walker 12k Barrett 16k.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 05, 2012, 08:28:21 PM
It definitely feels like the Walker people are still more confident than the Barrett people (for now).

Well, the sorry fact is that Barrett could have way overperformed expectations and still lose narrowly.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Kevinstat on June 05, 2012, 08:28:46 PM
The vote totals for Gov vs. Lt. Gov are totally different. It's apples and oranges.

Yeah, I was about to answer the question of why by saying her personality was like that of Michelle Bachmann (which may still be true) when I noticed that.  One would think the same precincts would be in for both races.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: rob in cal on June 05, 2012, 08:29:24 PM
Walker is getting huge margins in smaller GOP leaning counties, in Fond du Lac he is ahead of 2010 numbers with 44% of county reporting. But, wonder if Dane and Milwaukee tsunami is headed our way.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Miles on June 05, 2012, 08:30:07 PM
Walker is only down 56-44 in Dane county with 15% in.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on June 05, 2012, 08:30:36 PM
Does CNN/anyone have a results/map page?  I'm on my phone and haven't been able to find one. A link would be greatly appreciated.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 05, 2012, 08:31:35 PM
Walker is only down 56-44 in Dane county with 15% in.

Careful, these votes are not Madison proper according to the Cheeseheads at Ace of Spades (which has the fastest tally besides CNN live, BTW).


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 08:33:24 PM
Walker is getting huge margins in smaller GOP leaning counties, in Fond du Lac he is ahead of 2010 numbers with 44% of county reporting. But, wonder if Dane and Milwaukee tsunami is headed our way.

The WOW counties haven't reported a vote yet and Walker is ahead of Milwaukee+Madison with the small counties... interesting sign.  Maybe that means something.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 05, 2012, 08:33:37 PM
Where the [Inks] is Torie to look at ward results in rural Dane County and tell us who won?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Dereich on June 05, 2012, 08:33:55 PM
CNN decided to show jubilee stuff for a while so I switch to Fox. They have Kleefisch up 58-42 with 7% in.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: TJ in Oregon on June 05, 2012, 08:34:58 PM
Walker is also winning Milwaukee County at the moment, so clearly we'll need to wait and see a little longer ;)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 08:35:07 PM
Walker is getting huge margins in smaller GOP leaning counties, in Fond du Lac he is ahead of 2010 numbers with 44% of county reporting. But, wonder if Dane and Milwaukee tsunami is headed our way.

The WOW counties haven't reported a vote yet and Walker is ahead of Milwaukee+Madison with the small counties... interesting sign.  Maybe that means something.

LOL, I post that and a third of Ozaukee reports

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Governor/2012/Primary/WI is working well


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on June 05, 2012, 08:35:26 PM
Walker is only down 56-44 in Dane county with 15% in.

Careful, these votes are not Madison proper according to the Cheeseheads at Ace of Spades (which has the fastest tally besides CNN live, BTW).

Doesn't really matter much given that Dane should be bluer than that.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Miles on June 05, 2012, 08:35:35 PM
Walker is only down 56-44 in Dane county with 15% in.

Careful, these votes are not Madison proper according to the Cheeseheads at Ace of Spades (which has the fastest tally besides CNN live, BTW).

Ok. I thought so.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: cinyc on June 05, 2012, 08:35:43 PM
It's way early and who knows what's in where, but Walker is ahead of his 2010 percent in most of the counties that have reported so far.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: pepper11 on June 05, 2012, 08:36:16 PM
this thing is long over...probably by double digits. walker is smoking his 2010 margin...nice exits cnn

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/wisconsin-recall-results#graph


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Dereich on June 05, 2012, 08:41:20 PM
Any guesses as to when this will be called?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on June 05, 2012, 08:41:39 PM
Does CNN not have a live link up for results?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 05, 2012, 08:42:59 PM
When did exit polls decide to suck all of a sudden?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: ag on June 05, 2012, 08:43:52 PM
At least, Waukesha (under new management) is reporting in a timely fashion: 20% in.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 08:44:52 PM
As of this second Barrett is ahead in only 4 counties: Bayfield, Ashland, Iowa, Dane. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on June 05, 2012, 08:45:20 PM
Walker still down only 4k in Dane. Of course McCain won all of 1 precinct in the entire county if I recall, and it was a tiny one.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: rbt48 on June 05, 2012, 08:46:14 PM
Unless the remainder of Dane tilts very heavily against him, it looks like one could nearly call the State Senate race (dist #13) for Fitzgerald (R).


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 08:46:27 PM
When did exit polls decide to suck all of a sudden?

They've never been that great.

Still too early to say how far off this one is though...


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: pepper11 on June 05, 2012, 08:46:52 PM
Looks like about 11 or 12 spread based on comparison to 2010


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Incipimus iterum on June 05, 2012, 08:47:40 PM
16.5% in
Walker- 60.5%
Barrett- 38.9%


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nichlemn on June 05, 2012, 08:47:57 PM
Funny how DailyKos cherrypicks all the pro-Barrett results while conveniently ignoring Walker's current lead in raw votes (even if they're probably unrepresentative).


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 05, 2012, 08:48:36 PM
Latest exits have Walker up 52% to 48%.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: cinyc on June 05, 2012, 08:49:30 PM
When did exit polls decide to suck all of a sudden?

I'd wait for Milwaukee and Madison to report before concluding that the exit polls sucked.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: ajc0918 on June 05, 2012, 08:50:58 PM
Msnbc calls it for Walker


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: cavalcade on June 05, 2012, 08:51:51 PM
So far Walker seems to be outperforming his 2010 results in the vast majority of counties.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 08:52:01 PM
The early rumors today of 90-110% turnout in dane county look to be exaggerated a bit.  
apparently the actual turnout ended up closer to 41 percent.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/06/about-that-madison-turnout-125381.html


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Dereich on June 05, 2012, 08:52:12 PM
The huffington post has a pretty good map for this:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/wisconsin-recall-results


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Vote UKIP! on June 05, 2012, 08:52:30 PM
Can you say landslide?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 05, 2012, 08:54:21 PM
MSNBC and NBC call it for Walker. Booh yah. :) Ya socked it to 'em, Guv!


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lincoln Republican on June 05, 2012, 08:55:49 PM
This is a done deal!

Hallieulah!


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: TJ in Oregon on June 05, 2012, 08:56:26 PM

I think we need to see a little bit of Milwaukee and Madison before we say that.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 08:57:05 PM
Enjoying watching media "omgtooclosetocalllooooongnight" colliding with reality. Race called in under an hour


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Dereich on June 05, 2012, 08:58:04 PM
Fox calls this for Walker and for Kleefisch. MSNBC has already started its attempts at justifying the loss. Also, exit polls suuuuuck.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 09:00:03 PM
Oh well. It was fun while it lasted. At least it looks like my final prediction will be pretty accurate.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 05, 2012, 09:00:57 PM
Hey, guys...

"Dominating"


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 05, 2012, 09:11:18 PM
Walker
Campaign: $29 million
Outside Groups: $16 million

Barrett
Campaign: $3 million
Outside Groups: $6 million

Also, could this site get any f**king slower during an election night?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 09:13:54 PM
Wisdems and MSNBC's reaction to Walker win. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI6-JzxV-_M&feature=youtube_gdata_player


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Tender Branson on June 05, 2012, 09:16:07 PM
The New York Times has the Exit Poll table:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/05/us/politics/wisconsin-recall-exit-polls.html

Party ID is 34D, 34R, 32I. Based on the crosstabs, Walker is predicted to win with 51.6%

PPP did a great job by polling Walker+3.

BTW, Obama leads Romney by 53-42 in the exit poll.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Incipimus iterum on June 05, 2012, 09:21:39 PM
Wisdems and MSNBC's reaction to Walker win. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI6-JzxV-_M&feature=youtube_gdata_player
XD lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWaLxFIVX1s my version of it


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Oakvale on June 05, 2012, 09:22:30 PM
Sad, if not surprising. The people of Wisconsin had a chance to toss out a corrupt, quasi-fascist criminal and instead quite possibly kept him in office by a larger margin than he originally won by.

Matt Yglesias said it best...

Quote
Exit polls clarfy that WI recall outcome will be settled by deeply confused swing voters who lack coherent political views.

Oh well, with any luck Walker will be in prison in a few months, anyway. :)

EDIT: Haha, Obama leads Romney in the exit poll. What the hell kind of confused person is an Obama/Walker voter?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 09:24:18 PM
MSNBC's O'Donnell & Heilemann still touting the WI exit poll numbers on Obama vs. Romney. Encouraging sign, they say.  LOL, can you say stuck on stupid.  

The salary of 1500 Union operatives from around the country isn't counted among other things. Spending was probably close.

MSNBC: "I'm sure the prez woke up this morning & thought, 'I hope Walker wins by 10 points. That'd be good for me!'"


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 05, 2012, 09:25:22 PM
This is what happens when you try to recall a Governor who did nothing wrong.

Not surprised - I had this race pegged around a 7-8 point Walker win. Romney needs to make a play for this state.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 05, 2012, 09:25:56 PM
So Republicans spent tens of millions to keep a criminal in office for a few months until he's thrown in jail? Huh.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 05, 2012, 09:26:24 PM
Sad, if not surprising. The people of Wisconsin had a chance to toss out a corrupt, quasi-fascist criminal and instead quite possibly kept him in office by a larger margin than he originally won by.

Matt Yglesias said it best...

Quote
Exit polls clarfy that WI recall outcome will be settled by deeply confused swing voters who lack coherent political views.

Oh well, with any luck Walker will be in prison in a few months, anyway. :)

EDIT: Haha, Obama leads Romney in the exit poll. What the hell kind of confused person is an Obama/Walker voter?

Swing voters suck.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on June 05, 2012, 09:26:55 PM
Great news. The mafia....oh sorry I mean the corrupt unions and their attempts to deceive the WI public have clearly failed.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: FEMA Camp Administrator on June 05, 2012, 09:28:05 PM
It was this or watching "Fight Club" fir the 1st time. Incredible movie.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 05, 2012, 09:28:16 PM
EDIT: Haha, Obama leads Romney in the exit poll. What the hell kind of confused person is an Obama/Walker voter?

That's what I can't figure out.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Simfan34 on June 05, 2012, 09:28:53 PM
A victory for common sense governance!


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: netzero19 on June 05, 2012, 09:29:29 PM
()


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 05, 2012, 09:30:45 PM
I doubt that Walker will win by such a huge margin. 8-9 once Milwaukee/Madison come in.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 05, 2012, 09:31:56 PM
This may be a much better night than expected for conservatives. About 50% of the vote in and Walker's up nearly 20 points, AND we get to bash the media's head in over silly 50-50% exit poll projections.

So Republicans spent tens of millions to keep a criminal in office for a few months until he's thrown in jail? Huh.

Hahaha...listen to the libs cry! Sour grapes much?

Let's see if you're even still here in November when we watch Romney lose. In the meantime, enjoy "bashing the media's head in" because their initial exit poll was slightly wrong (???).


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 05, 2012, 09:31:56 PM
So Republicans spent tens of millions to keep a criminal in office for a few months until he's thrown in jail? Huh.

LOL

Hey, remember how Walker's "illegitimate child" was going to sink him in the final weekend? Keep dreaming, boys.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lincoln Republican on June 05, 2012, 09:32:33 PM
Neither Wisconsin nor America will be pushed around by union bosses.

Sorry Barack.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 09:33:14 PM
EDIT: Haha, Obama leads Romney in the exit poll. What the hell kind of confused person is an Obama/Walker voter?

That's what I can't figure out.

1) The exit poll sucks.  Maybe off 10%
2) Romney hasn't started a campaign in Wisconsin yet.  Wait a few days.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 09:36:30 PM
This is what happens when you try to recall a Governor who did nothing wrong.

Not surprised - I had this race pegged around a 7-8 point Walker win. Romney needs to make a play for this state.

Considering he's trailing by double digits in the very exit poll that has Walker winning this thing, perhaps not.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lincoln Republican on June 05, 2012, 09:37:21 PM
Walker
Campaign: $29 million
Outside Groups: $16 million

Barrett
Campaign: $3 million
Outside Groups: $6 million

Also, could this site get any f**king slower during an election night?

Big deal.  It's not Republicans fault if Wisconsin Dems can't raise the big bucks.  And let's face it, it takes big bucks to compete in and to win elections in this era.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 09:40:29 PM
The real class warfare is not "Rich v. Poor" - it is the entrenched political class and public unions V. us the taxpayers

Lawrence O'Donnell just declared President Obama the big winner in the Wisconsin recall election. Um... his guy lost

So will New York Times put Wisconsin results on A10 or maybe in the classifieds

On Tuesday we saved Wisconsin; in November Wisconsin will save America!

Nice to see a man of great integrity stand tall against thugs and emerge victorious.   

Barrett's post-election party menu: Champagne made from sour grapes (glasses filled only 41.2%)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: CatoMinor on June 05, 2012, 09:41:40 PM

Let's see if you're even still here in November when we watch Romney lose. In the meantime, enjoy "bashing the media's head in" because their initial exit poll was slightly wrong (???).

Slightly wrong? lolno


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 05, 2012, 09:42:09 PM
The real class warfare is not "Rich v. Poor" - it is the entrenched political class and public unions V. us the taxpayers

lol


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: cinyc on June 05, 2012, 09:43:21 PM
Interesting to note, Walker is actually LEADING in Milwaukee County right now, though only 13% is reporting. Barrett carried that in 2010 with 61%.

PS - CNN news anchor is reporting in front of a bunch of pro-Barrett cry babies live right now, and it's funny (in a pathetic sort of way).

Most of Milwaukee proper isn't in.  It's mainly Milwaukee County suburbs.  Barrett should do better when Milwaukee reports more.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LiberalJunkie on June 05, 2012, 09:44:14 PM
It's funny as soon as the Republicans win the delusional members pop up.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Incipimus iterum on June 05, 2012, 09:44:29 PM
Politico has called the election for Walker


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 05, 2012, 09:44:46 PM
Walker
Campaign: $29 million
Outside Groups: $16 million

Barrett
Campaign: $3 million
Outside Groups: $6 million

Also, could this site get any f**king slower during an election night?

Big deal.  It's not Republicans fault if Wisconsin Dems can't raise the big bucks.  And let's face it, it takes big bucks to compete in and to win elections in this era.


Good job missing the point.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on June 05, 2012, 09:44:54 PM
So, Walker is the first Governor to survive a recall election, right?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on June 05, 2012, 09:46:30 PM
So, Walker is the first Governor to survive a recall election, right?

That is correct. It will be interesting to watch him over the next few years. Surviving a recall attempt in a swing state is a nice feat.

On another note: the hackery from both sides in this thread is a sorry sight to the eyes.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Foucaulf on June 05, 2012, 09:47:53 PM
Let's not try to moralize things here. Wisconsinites would have voted for Walker because he's the one that keeps promising lower taxes (okay, probably also out of resentment).

In the end the tax cuts won't do much to spur investment, Wisconsin continues to borrow from the federal government and the anger will be redirected to the federal level. The only significant change is that Walker will gain power - overpowering his lack of talent with force of personality.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 05, 2012, 09:49:15 PM
What do you mean what now? Walker is going to win dude. Pretty uncontroversial at this point.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nichlemn on June 05, 2012, 09:49:22 PM
Walker
Campaign: $29 million
Outside Groups: $16 million

Barrett
Campaign: $3 million
Outside Groups: $6 million

Also, could this site get any f**king slower during an election night?

Big deal.  It's not Republicans fault if Wisconsin Dems can't raise the big bucks.  And let's face it, it takes big bucks to compete in and to win elections in this era.


Good job missing the point.

That money barely influences election results? (http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/01/17/how-much-does-campaign-spending-influence-the-election-a-freakonomics-quorum/)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Psychic Octopus on June 05, 2012, 09:49:37 PM
I'm sorry, but these activists CNN are showing are hilarious. This one guy, named Tim, was saying that "[they're] not just disappointed. This is the end of democracy. I'M VERY EMOTIONAL! This is it. The end of the USA as we know it just happened!"


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Incipimus iterum on June 05, 2012, 09:49:53 PM
i wonder how it wouldve been different if Fiengold was the Nominee


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on June 05, 2012, 09:52:03 PM
So, Walker is the first Governor to survive a recall election, right?

That is correct. It will be interesting to watch him over the next few years. Surviving a recall attempt in a swing state is a nice feat.

I just checked. Only recall elections before Wisconsin took place in North Dakota (1921, Lynn Frazier recalled) and in California (2003, Gray Davis recalled).

Looks like Walker will have an interesting place in history for breaking the trend.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 09:56:01 PM
Fond du Lac County 100% in - Walker 29,037, Barrett 16,098 (Walker margin improved by 1600 over 2010)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: cinyc on June 05, 2012, 09:57:11 PM
As of a few minutes ago, 16 counties have fully reported.  Walker outperformed his 2010 percentage in 12 of them.  Turnout was higher than 2010 in all of them.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on June 05, 2012, 10:00:42 PM
     It doesn't mean much, but Barrett has taken the lead in Milwaukee county.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Frodo on June 05, 2012, 10:01:13 PM
So Gov. Walker survives by a nearly twenty-point margin -with the stature he has gained within the GOP and the conservative movement as a whole, I'll be surprised if Mitt Romney doesn't ask him to be his running-mate.  


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Dereich on June 05, 2012, 10:01:27 PM
I expect it to be 55-45 after Milwaukee gets off its butt. Did anyone see the activists CNN had on? Hilarious.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 10:02:16 PM
I'm sorry, but these activists CNN are showing are hilarious. This one guy, named Tim, was saying that "[they're] not just disappointed. This is the end of democracy. I'M VERY EMOTIONAL! This is it. The end of the USA as we know it just happened!"

Okay, that is pretty funny.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: cinyc on June 05, 2012, 10:02:22 PM
Fond du Lac County 100% in - Walker 29,037, Barrett 16,098 (Walker margin improved by 1600 over 2010)

Walker's margin improved, but his percentage in Fond du Lac actually fell by 0.41 points from 2010.  How is that possible?  Turnout increased by nearly 20% from 2010.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 10:03:35 PM
Hey Tom Barrett, Scott Walker is really a rock star NOW. Thanks for your contribution

Lesson to sentient Democrats:
conservatives must say to the PUBLIC unions that if they cannot behave responsibly with the powers they have, then those powers will be curbed.  If they don't the Republic is doomed.  It would be nice to have some adults on the other side.  wake up time.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Incipimus iterum on June 05, 2012, 10:03:57 PM
I'm sorry, but these activists CNN are showing are hilarious. This one guy, named Tim, was saying that "[they're] not just disappointed. This is the end of democracy. I'M VERY EMOTIONAL! This is it. The end of the USA as we know it just happened!"

Okay, that is pretty funny.
lol


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 10:04:36 PM
So Gov. Walker survives by a nearly twenty-point margin -with the stature he has gained within the GOP and the conservative movement as a whole, I'll be surprised if Mitt Romney doesn't ask him to be his running-mate.  

He's not going to win by nearly 20 points. lol.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 05, 2012, 10:06:09 PM
Looks like 8-9, with 77% in it's 56-43.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: CatoMinor on June 05, 2012, 10:06:37 PM
How are the state senate races looking?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Foucaulf on June 05, 2012, 10:06:47 PM
I'll be surprised if Mitt Romney doesn't ask [Walker] to be his running-mate.  

Ergh. At least Palin was entertaining.

My last post must be wrong, because there was clearly a get-out-the-vote campaign by Republicans. Maybe then the campaign is less an example of the banality of self-interest than the banality of political machines, or something.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Frodo on June 05, 2012, 10:07:18 PM
So Gov. Walker survives by a nearly twenty-point margin -with the stature he has gained within the GOP and the conservative movement as a whole, I'll be surprised if Mitt Romney doesn't ask him to be his running-mate.  

He's not going to win by nearly 20 points. lol.

When I last glanced at CNN, it was 59 to 41.  It is still a safe bet, though, that Walker has won by double-digits.  


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: cinyc on June 05, 2012, 10:07:51 PM
How are the state senate races looking?

Looks like a Republican sweep, though SD21 is only 10% in so far and thus too early to call.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on June 05, 2012, 10:08:46 PM
So Gov. Walker survives by a nearly twenty-point margin -with the stature he has gained within the GOP and the conservative movement as a whole, I'll be surprised if Mitt Romney doesn't ask him to be his running-mate.  

He's not going to win by nearly 20 points. lol.

When I last glanced at CNN, it was 59 to 41.  It is still a safe bet, though, that Walker has won by double-digits.  

He's winning by 11 with Milwaukee only 44% in. He's probably going to win by around 8 (+/- 1)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Tender Branson on June 05, 2012, 10:09:15 PM
Looks to me like a 52.5-47.0 win for Walker when Milwaukee and Dane are fully counted.

That would make Angus Reid the best pollster, while PPP and the Independent groups are average and We Ask America would be the worst pollster.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 10:11:51 PM
I'm looking at Barrett ahead in 10 counties:
Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, Iowa, Jackson, Richland, Menominee = small counties
Dane, Milwaukee, Rock = big
LaCrosse is flipping back and forth.  


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on June 05, 2012, 10:12:06 PM
Well this was a hot mess.

It's still an absolute mystery to me as to how anybody can even remotely stand this guy, just on a visceral personal level.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Reaganfan on June 05, 2012, 10:20:43 PM
What a great night :)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The Vorlon on June 05, 2012, 10:22:26 PM
The GOP seems to be ready to hold all 4 state senate seats as well

State Senate - District 13 - Special General
66 of 97 Precincts Reporting - 68%

   Fitzgerald, Scott (i)   GOP   32,254   60%
        Compas, Lori   Dem   21,324   39%
        Virgil, Terry   Lib   486   1%

State Senate - District 21 - Special General
13 of 60 Precincts Reporting - 22%
Wanggaard, Van (i)   GOP   11,301   62%
Lehman, John   Dem   7,033   38%

State Senate - District 23 - Special General
113 of 168 Precincts Reporting - 67%
   Moulton, Terry (i)   GOP   22,491   60%
Dexter, Kristen   Dem   14,765   40%

State Senate - District 29 - Special General
119 of 172 Precincts Reporting - 69%

   Petrowski, Jerry   GOP   26,573   64%
Seidel, Donna   Dem   15,041   


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: TJ in Oregon on June 05, 2012, 10:24:26 PM
Well this was a hot mess.

It's still an absolute mystery to me as to how anybody can even remotely stand this guy, just on a visceral personal level.

Some people may think the public employees should pay more for there own benefits, or some may be angry at the Democrats for the circus type of atmosphere surrounding Madison, or some may be sick of the recall drama, or some may be sick and tired of the visceral personal attacks on Walker.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 10:26:08 PM
Well this was a hot mess.

It's still an absolute mystery to me as to how anybody can even remotely stand this guy, just on a visceral personal level.
He has a nasal twang when he says the word "time" -- it sounds something like 'tywimine.'  Outside of that I have no idea what you are talking about.  The guy is perhaps the most honest straightforward man in American politics.  truly a man of integrity.  "boyscout"    


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: cinyc on June 05, 2012, 10:32:12 PM
In the 30 counties now fully reporting, turnout is up an average of 16.28% from 2010.  It is up in every county.  Walker is running 1.96 points ahead of his 2010 percentage in those counties.  If that trend holds uniform across the state, Walker should win with about 54.2% of the vote.  An eight point margin sounds about right.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Reaganfan on June 05, 2012, 10:33:21 PM
Fantastic speech by Walker.

For once, a politician truly did put his political neck on the line, and the voters have rewarded him :)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 05, 2012, 10:35:49 PM
Its nice to see politicians who will risk their political careers to fight for what they believe in, whether GOP or Democratic. Walker is just that.

Great speech. Its just unfortunate so much money and time was wasted on an unnecessary election.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: MasterJedi on June 05, 2012, 10:39:27 PM
Just thought I should pop in and say boo yah! :P

In a serious note, there is a huge waste of millions of dollars and over a year of hell living in this state. Hopefully this means that Barrett is done, or if he chooses Walker can beat him for a third time in four years in 2014. Good speech by Walker, time to move Wisconsin forward.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on June 05, 2012, 10:41:26 PM
Well this was a hot mess.

It's still an absolute mystery to me as to how anybody can even remotely stand this guy, just on a visceral personal level.
He has a nasal twang when he says the word "time" -- it sounds something like 'tywimine.'  Outside of that I have no idea what you are talking about.  The guy is perhaps the most honest straightforward man in American politics.  truly a man of integrity.  "boyscout"    

He's not a 'man of integrity', he's just really masterfully slippery for somebody who's also such a boor. It's quite remarkable.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 05, 2012, 10:41:36 PM
Just thought I should pop in and say boo yah! :P

In a serious note, there is a huge waste of millions of dollars and over a year of hell living in this state. Hopefully this means that Barrett is done, or if he chooses Walker can beat him for a third time in four years in 2014. Good speech by Walker, time to move Wisconsin forward.
He still has to survive the courtroom.
It's remarkable how stable R turnout is, 1.26 mil in 08, 1.13 in 10, and probably about 1.2 now.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The Vorlon on June 05, 2012, 10:45:13 PM
Tomorrow's News Headlines:

CBS News: - Walker Helped in Wisconsin by Obama policies that reduced unemployment
NBC News: - Little change in Wisconsin bodes well for Obama Re-election
ABC News: - Exit polls show big Obama lead in Badger State.
NY Times: - Last transit this century of Venus across sun makes for spectacular viewing
FoxNews: - Badger State B*tchslaps Obama and Unions


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 10:47:34 PM
This is perhaps the worst spin ever.



@davidaxelrod (tweets)

Bad night in Boston...WI raises big questions for Mitt.


LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 05, 2012, 10:50:21 PM
PS - people booed when Scott Walker said "I've just spoken with Tom Barret..." He interrupted to say "no, no, no, no....the election is over." Nice contrast to the Barrett supporters on CNN screaming "democracy is dead."

How is that a contrast at all?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on June 05, 2012, 10:50:55 PM
Looks to me like a 52.5-47.0 win for Walker when Milwaukee and Dane are fully counted.

That would make Angus Reid the best pollster, while PPP and the Independent groups are average and We Ask America would be the worst pollster.


The New York Times has the Exit Poll table:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/05/us/politics/wisconsin-recall-exit-polls.html

Party ID is 34D, 34R, 32I. Based on the crosstabs, Walker is predicted to win with 51.6%

PPP did a great job by polling Walker+3.

BTW, Obama leads Romney by 53-42 in the exit poll.


LOLOLOL!


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 10:51:34 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEwXa197uBU&feature=youtu.be

This is the crap I've been living with for a year.  What do they put in the kool-aid?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: rbt48 on June 05, 2012, 10:51:57 PM
Looks like Kenosha County is the only one that flipped to Barrett.  Walker took 51% in 2010, Barret took 51% this time.  Barrett took 13 counties in 2010, but seems to have taken 9 this year.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: TJ in Oregon on June 05, 2012, 10:54:10 PM
I'm moving to Madison in August, so I'm glad to come after the drama is all over ;D


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 10:54:36 PM
Walker by exactly 9 points (54.2-45.2-0.6) with 87.5% of the vote in.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: MasterJedi on June 05, 2012, 10:57:43 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEwXa197uBU&feature=youtu.be

This is the crap I've been living with for a year.  What do they put in the kool-aid?

Oh, it's not mature at all but I just couldn't resist: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owzhYNcd4OM (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owzhYNcd4OM)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 11:00:38 PM
People were so upset with Fitzgerald and Petrowski, they elected them by 20+ points.  This is what democracy looks like.  stop recalling people for no reason.  


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 05, 2012, 11:00:48 PM
PS - people booed when Scott Walker said "I've just spoken with Tom Barret..." He interrupted to say "no, no, no, no....the election is over." Nice contrast to the Barrett supporters on CNN screaming "democracy is dead."

How is that a contrast at all?

Telling a booing crowd to get over it, the election is over, time to move on is a stark contrast to the losers screaming "democracy is dead." If you're really so obtuse you can't see that, then go troll someone else.

Still not seeing the difference. Both crowds are acting like idiots, it seems, as crowds of people are wont to do.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Phony Moderate on June 05, 2012, 11:02:50 PM
PS - people booed when Scott Walker said "I've just spoken with Tom Barret..." He interrupted to say "no, no, no, no....the election is over." Nice contrast to the Barrett supporters on CNN screaming "democracy is dead."

How is that a contrast at all?

Telling a booing crowd to get over it, the election is over, time to move on is a stark contrast to the losers screaming "democracy is dead." If you're really so obtuse you can't see that, then go troll someone else.

Would your inbox suffice? ;)



Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 11:03:14 PM
#AxelrodTweets: Bad night in London ...Waterloo raises big questions for Wellington.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 11:04:46 PM
Walker's margin continues to get smaller. 54%-46% now.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Seattle on June 05, 2012, 11:06:31 PM
What's up with Racine county? They've still only updated 23/66 precincts and its holding up that last senate race....


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on June 05, 2012, 11:07:08 PM
Oh well. Better luck in November for the Democrats!


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 05, 2012, 11:20:32 PM
Axelrod and DNC Chair Wasserman Schultz both say despite the results of #WIrecall, the vote sent a message to Scott Walker... That message? "You rock, keep at it."

Also, Bad night at Agincourt. British really need to regroup.

PS, is anyone working on a map?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 05, 2012, 11:25:55 PM
Yeah, I'm starting to notice you have a serious problem with admitting when you're wrong. Good luck with that.

I realized a while ago that you were a pretty worthless poster, so don't worry about it.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Seattle on June 05, 2012, 11:27:29 PM
Looks like Walker wins Eau Claire by about 200 votes.

Both Portage and La Crosse are still to close to call, but Barrett is leading in both.
Columbia is also sorta too close to call, but Walker probably won there.

Racine just hasn't bothered to report further results, but I suspect Walker wins there too.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 05, 2012, 11:29:26 PM
We now have concrete evidence to prove PPP has a Democratic lean this cycle. Its good to have my suspicions confirmed.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: philly09 on June 05, 2012, 11:36:03 PM
Looks like Walker wins Eau Claire by about 200 votes.

Both Portage and La Crosse are still to close to call, but Barrett is leading in both.
Columbia is also sorta too close to call, but Walker probably won there.

Racine just hasn't bothered to report further results, but I suspect Walker wins there too.


Nope, Columbia County has gone for Barrett.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Seattle on June 05, 2012, 11:37:46 PM
Looks like Walker wins Eau Claire by about 200 votes.

Both Portage and La Crosse are still to close to call, but Barrett is leading in both.
Columbia is also sorta too close to call, but Walker probably won there.

Racine just hasn't bothered to report further results, but I suspect Walker wins there too.


Nope, Columbia County has gone for Barrett.
Just saw that. It hadn't reported those 5 final precincts yet when I posted. I think Barrett will pull out in both Portage and La Crosse.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: philly09 on June 05, 2012, 11:42:15 PM
Looks like Walker wins Eau Claire by about 200 votes.

Both Portage and La Crosse are still to close to call, but Barrett is leading in both.
Columbia is also sorta too close to call, but Walker probably won there.

Racine just hasn't bothered to report further results, but I suspect Walker wins there too.


Nope, Columbia County has gone for Barrett.
Just saw that. It hadn't reported those 5 final precincts yet when I posted. I think Barrett will pull out in both Portage and La Crosse.


Portage has gone for Barrett with 100% reporting


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Seattle on June 05, 2012, 11:43:00 PM
philly08, you keep on beating me by a couple seconds! lol. Yeah.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nichlemn on June 05, 2012, 11:45:36 PM
I wonder if this year's "Good news for John McCain" meme will be "Bad news for Mitt Romney"? I also recall that Romney's "underwhelming" primary wins were apparently very bad news for him.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: cinyc on June 05, 2012, 11:46:17 PM
What's up with Racine county? They've still only updated 23/66 precincts and its holding up that last senate race....

Not sure. But Walker is winning 63-37% there, with 35% of precincts reporting. That's much better than the 56-43% margin he won Racine by in 2010.

The city of Racine separately reports results, which aren't always quickly integrated into the county's spreadsheet or AP tally.  The city leans Democratic.  The rest of the county leads Republican.  So if Walker's up by that much, it's safe to assume that the AP results are light on the city of Racine.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: philly09 on June 05, 2012, 11:46:43 PM
Anybody else getting suspicious about Racine County's vote counters/


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 05, 2012, 11:48:43 PM
Walker leads 53%-46% now with 97% of the vote in. This is basically 2010 all over again.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Seattle on June 05, 2012, 11:49:42 PM
Anybody else getting suspicious about Racine County's vote counters/

No, just annoyed.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: philly09 on June 05, 2012, 11:51:43 PM
Why is it that Barrett is winning the counties Obama lost in '08, and Walker is winning the counties that Obama won in '08?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Alcon on June 05, 2012, 11:52:58 PM
Why is it that Barrett is winning the counties Obama lost in '08, and Walker is winning the counties that Obama won in '08?

This web site uses red for Democrats and blue for Republicans.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: philly09 on June 05, 2012, 11:56:11 PM
Why is it that Barrett is winning the counties Obama lost in '08, and Walker is winning the counties that Obama won in '08?

This web site uses red for Democrats and blue for Republicans.


Walker still won La Crosse in 2010, and he's winning Green.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: cinyc on June 05, 2012, 11:57:15 PM
Anybody else getting suspicious about Racine County's vote counters/

No, and I explained why in my previous post.  AP isn't integrating the Racine city and Racine county results well.

Racine city is 81% in.  Barrett leads Walker there 13596 to 7307.   The Republican incumbent in the Racine city portion of SD-21 is down 7056 to 13742.

In the rest of Racine County, Walker leads Barrett 25819 to 15002.   The Republican incumbent in the Racine county portion of SD-21 leads 16399 to 10775.  What percentage is out is hard to tell because of the way the county reports results.

So by my math, Walker leads Barrett 33126 to 28598.  AP is only showing about 50,000 votes.  The Republican incumbent in SD-21 is trailing by about 1,000 votes.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Alcon on June 05, 2012, 11:59:43 PM
Why is it that Barrett is winning the counties Obama lost in '08, and Walker is winning the counties that Obama won in '08?

This web site uses red for Democrats and blue for Republicans.


Walker still won La Crosse in 2010, and he's winning Green.

Yeah, Walker lost ground in a handful of counties.  I'm not sure what this has to do with Obama, or why Green is remarkable.  Sorry if I'm failing comprehension here...


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: philly09 on June 05, 2012, 11:59:43 PM
Still Walker is taking a lot of the counties that Obama won in 2008.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Lief 🗽 on June 06, 2012, 12:00:47 AM
Still Walker is taking a lot of the counties that Obama won in 2008.

A ~25% swing will do that.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Alcon on June 06, 2012, 12:00:57 AM
Still Walker is taking a lot of the counties that Obama won in 2008.

...That tends to be what happens when you compare a Democrat +14% election to a Republican +7% one.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: philly09 on June 06, 2012, 12:04:39 AM
Still Walker is taking a lot of the counties that Obama won in 2008.

...That tends to be what happens when you compare a Democrat +14% election to a Republican +7% one.


Does that mean that the Wisconsinites prefer R's at the state/local level and D's at the National/Federal level?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nichlemn on June 06, 2012, 12:08:44 AM
Still Walker is taking a lot of the counties that Obama won in 2008.

...That tends to be what happens when you compare a Democrat +14% election to a Republican +7% one.


Does that mean that the Wisconsinites prefer R's at the state/local level and D's at the National/Federal level?

No, not really. It's only two elections in different climates with different candidates. For instance, Jim Doyle won by larger margins than Kerry or Gore. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: philly09 on June 06, 2012, 12:12:38 AM
Still Walker is taking a lot of the counties that Obama won in 2008.

...That tends to be what happens when you compare a Democrat +14% election to a Republican +7% one.


Does that mean that the Wisconsinites prefer R's at the state/local level and D's at the National/Federal level?

No, not really. It's only two elections in different climates with different candidates. For instance, Jim Doyle won by larger margins than Kerry or Gore. 


But Kerry and Gore still won the state.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 06, 2012, 12:13:07 AM
Still Walker is taking a lot of the counties that Obama won in 2008.

...That tends to be what happens when you compare a Democrat +14% election to a Republican +7% one.


Does that mean that the Wisconsinites prefer R's at the state/local level and D's at the National/Federal level?
No, democrats don't vote as much in non-Presidential years, and their campaign got destroyed($ 30mil vs $3mil).


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: philly09 on June 06, 2012, 12:18:03 AM
Turnout was high for the 2006 midterms.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 06, 2012, 12:26:32 AM
Racine race is turning into a mess.  To close to call.  Irregularities suspected in Racine.  Recount likely. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Dan the Roman on June 06, 2012, 12:33:26 AM
Racine race is turning into a mess.  To close to call.  Irregularities suspected in Racine.  Recount likely. 

Says who?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 06, 2012, 12:36:25 AM
Racine race is turning into a mess.  To close to call.  Irregularities suspected in Racine.  Recount likely. 

Says who?

Local News, interviewing both campaigns


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Alcon on June 06, 2012, 12:36:56 AM
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/wisconsin-recall-results?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000009#graph


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 06, 2012, 12:46:03 AM
()

Here's the map.  It was sharp, I don't know why it's dull now.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 06, 2012, 12:49:00 AM
()
bigger

Barrett won 12 counties, but he came real close to only winning 6. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Tender Branson on June 06, 2012, 12:49:12 AM
Obama's winning Indies by double-digits, while Barrett lost them by about double-digits:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/07/us/politics/shifts-in-wisconsin-voters.html

Obama also gets 94% of Democrats, but loses ground among Republicans compared with 2008.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 06, 2012, 12:50:08 AM
Menominee county is quite FF, I would have thought that Milwaukee would be more blue than the Native Americans though.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on June 06, 2012, 12:53:54 AM
I haven't been paying close attention to this - seems I really missed something. I can understand the impression of him being unlikeable.  After Walker made so many enemies, I'm surprised he did this well - even winning traditionally Democratic counties!  What was the turnout like?  What kind of people are Walker/Obama voters?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: cinyc on June 06, 2012, 12:54:09 AM
Racine race is turning into a mess.  To close to call.  Irregularities suspected in Racine.  Recount likely. 

The city of Racine's results are what's a mess - 36 of 36 precincts are supposedly reporting, but the first 2 precincts show 0 votes.

My guess based on what's out in the city and county is that Van Wanggaard, the Republican incumbent, wins by the skin of his teeth.  I have him currently losing by 318 votes with those two Racine precincts, three Mount Pleasant precincts, and the village of Waterford outstanding.   Walker won Waterford by about 800 votes in 2010.  Mount Pleasant was closer, but leaned Walker.  I figure those areas combined should give Wanggaard about 1,000 votes.  Racine renumbered its wards from 2010, but the first two precincts in 2010 weren't that large, with Walker losing by about 330.  Net net, Wanggaard probably wins by 400-500 votes.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Tender Branson on June 06, 2012, 12:55:03 AM
Obama's winning Indies by double-digits, while Barrett lost them by about double-digits:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/07/us/politics/shifts-in-wisconsin-voters.html

Obama also gets 94% of Democrats, but loses ground among Republicans compared with 2008.

Yeah, but did you see the far right column in that link you posted? The net change since 2008 amongst EVERY single group of voters in Wisconsin is down, sometimes by double digit margins.

That's because 2008 was like the best result a Democrat could get in a Presidential year (except in a mega-landslide).


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 06, 2012, 01:00:18 AM
Racine race is turning into a mess.  To close to call.  Irregularities suspected in Racine.  Recount likely.  

The city of Racine's results are what's a mess - 36 of 36 precincts are supposedly reporting, but the first 2 precincts show 0 votes.

My guess based on what's out in the city and county is that Van Wanggaard, the Republican incumbent, wins by the skin of his teeth.  I have him currently losing by 318 votes with those two Racine precincts, three Mount Pleasant precincts, and the village of Waterford outstanding.   Walker won Waterford by about 800 votes in 2010.  Mount Pleasant was closer, but leaned Walker.  I figure those areas combined should give Wanggaard about 1,000 votes.  Racine renumbered its wards from 2010, but the first two precincts in 2010 weren't that large, with Walker losing by about 330.  Net net, Wanggaard probably wins by 400-500 votes.

They said they will sort it out tomorrow. :-(  

We know Walker will win the county and the senate district is almost the same boarder as the county.    


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: cinyc on June 06, 2012, 01:10:03 AM
Racine race is turning into a mess.  To close to call.  Irregularities suspected in Racine.  Recount likely.  

The city of Racine's results are what's a mess - 36 of 36 precincts are supposedly reporting, but the first 2 precincts show 0 votes.

My guess based on what's out in the city and county is that Van Wanggaard, the Republican incumbent, wins by the skin of his teeth.  I have him currently losing by 318 votes with those two Racine precincts, three Mount Pleasant precincts, and the village of Waterford outstanding.   Walker won Waterford by about 800 votes in 2010.  Mount Pleasant was closer, but leaned Walker.  I figure those areas combined should give Wanggaard about 1,000 votes.  Racine renumbered its wards from 2010, but the first two precincts in 2010 weren't that large, with Walker losing by about 330.  Net net, Wanggaard probably wins by 400-500 votes.

They said they will sort it out tomorrow. :-(  

We know Walker will win the county and the senate district is almost the same boarder as the county.    

Well, the city updated its results and is now really all in.  There were more voters in the missing precincts than I expected.  The Democrat leads by 1,057 votes with three precincts in Mount Pleasant and one precinct containing the village of Waterford outstanding.  There should be just enough votes there to overcome the deficit - a net of about 1300 for the Republican incumbent if Mount Pleasant ward borders didn't change from 2010.   But ultimately this is likely going to depend on absentees and a recount.  The city of Racine has 225 uncounted absentees.  No report from the county.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 06, 2012, 01:12:46 AM
()
OK this should be a sharper image. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LiberalJunkie on June 06, 2012, 01:22:31 AM
()


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on June 06, 2012, 01:48:20 AM
     PPP was hardly any better than WAA in this race. I wonder if this will actually affect anyone's opinion of PPP.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LiberalJunkie on June 06, 2012, 01:53:42 AM
()



Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on June 06, 2012, 02:04:32 AM
Matt Yglesias said it best...

Quote
Exit polls clarfy that WI recall outcome will be settled by deeply confused swing voters who lack coherent political views.

EDIT: Haha, Obama leads Romney in the exit poll. What the hell kind of confused person is an Obama/Walker voter?

This is why no one should be surprised by this. It was easy to see this result coming from a mile away. You cannot expect voters to base their support and action on any consistent set of political opinions, they simply are not capable of doing so. (And apparently it's wildly insulting and hackish to say so, despite just being an empirical truth.)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Miles on June 06, 2012, 02:10:05 AM
Wisconsin's swing from 2010:

()

Grey = Not yet at 100% reporting

Wonderful. I was waiting for that to be posted!


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 06, 2012, 07:46:38 AM
Matt Yglesias said it best...

Quote
Exit polls clarfy that WI recall outcome will be settled by deeply confused swing voters who lack coherent political views.

EDIT: Haha, Obama leads Romney in the exit poll. What the hell kind of confused person is an Obama/Walker voter?

This is why no one should be surprised by this. It was easy to see this result coming from a mile away. You cannot expect voters to base their support and action on any consistent set of political opinions, they simply are not capable of doing so. (And apparently it's wildly insulting and hackish to say so, despite just being an empirical truth.)

You guys realize that the exit poll showed the Walker recall TIED and that Romney has campaigned ZERO in Wisconsin right?  It's a great idea to hang your hat on that exit poll.

The democrats have a huge permanent turnkey infrastructure in Wisconsin that will produce 45% of the vote every time. 
Vs.
The Republicans have to rebuild their campaign organization every two years.

The democrats thought they could steamroll democracy by using their unfair advantage.  What a monumental miscalculation.  They never seem to grasp how backlash works.       


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on June 06, 2012, 08:04:02 AM
Yes, it does appear that the exit poll was garbage. Exit polls of course "massage" the exit poll numbers to match the actual vote as it comes in. That is why the exit poll showed the big Barrett lead among women erode away. It is quite dishonest actually. They should label the readjusted exit polls just that, which is fine since it gives cohort voting patterns, but keep the original one around for accountability's sake. It is also an object lesson that one should not call a race based on exit polls unless you have at least an 8 point margin (10 being a safe call, 8 being a judgment call), which was sort of the number that has been percolating in the back of my mind for some time. This cf performance rather confirms that. Meanwhile the Fox River Valley continues its big snapback to the Pubs after trending hard to Obama and the Dems in 2008.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 06, 2012, 08:20:36 AM
Yes, it does appear that the exit poll was garbage.

Yep. Bad on me for wanting to believe it and then using it to criticize people for wanting to believe We Ask America... bad exit polls are hardly new this year so I should have known better. In the end it went exactly as polls have been predicting for months.

Interesting in that what we see is that executives seem to survive, but legislators pay the price. 


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 06, 2012, 08:26:03 AM

You guys realize that the exit poll showed the Walker recall TIED and that Romney has campaigned ZERO in Wisconsin right?  It's a great idea to hang your hat on that exit poll.

The democrats have a huge permanent turnkey infrastructure in Wisconsin that will produce 45% of the vote every time.  
Vs.
The Republicans have to rebuild their campaign organization every two years.

The democrats thought they could steamroll democracy by using their unfair advantage.  What a monumental miscalculation.  They never seem to grasp how backlash works.        

Republicans spent $30 million defending Walker, Dems spent $3 million.

Dems have now retaken the WI Senate.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on June 06, 2012, 08:31:45 AM
Yes, it does appear that the exit poll was garbage.

Yep. Bad on me for wanting to believe it and then using it to criticize people for wanting to believe We Ask America... bad exit polls are hardly new this year so I should have known better. In the end it went exactly as polls have been predicting for months.

Interesting in that what we see is that executives seem to survive, but legislators pay the price. 

Well, Walker slightly declined in Racine County from 2010. And a couple really red precincts in Racine County are not in SD-21. GOP has only themselves to blame for not using the new map; of course, Walker won easily in SD-12 and SD-18.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 06, 2012, 08:31:58 AM
]
The democrats have a huge permanent turnkey infrastructure in Wisconsin that will produce 45% of the vote every time.   

Bzzt.

1990    Tommy Thompson (R/inc.) 58%    Thomas A. Loftus (D) 42%
1994    Tommy Thompson (R/inc.) 67%    Charles J. Chvala (D) 30%
1998    Tommy Thompson (R/inc.) 60%    Ed Garvey (D) 39%


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 06, 2012, 08:34:06 AM

You guys realize that the exit poll showed the Walker recall TIED and that Romney has campaigned ZERO in Wisconsin right?  It's a great idea to hang your hat on that exit poll.

The democrats have a huge permanent turnkey infrastructure in Wisconsin that will produce 45% of the vote every time.  
Vs.
The Republicans have to rebuild their campaign organization every two years.

The democrats thought they could steamroll democracy by using their unfair advantage.  What a monumental miscalculation.  They never seem to grasp how backlash works.        

Republicans spent $30 million defending Walker, Dems spent $3 million.

Dems have now retaken the WI Senate.

And Obama in 2008 spent $310M on ads, McCain $134M. I'm sure everyone's just as offended by this, right?

Yes, I think having a tremendous amount of money in politics is a bad thing. I'm glad that on a rare occasion the Dems had an advantage but overall I'd prefer a more equitable system, especially given the willingness of one party to trade industry donations for much larger legislative advantages (subsidies, repeal of regulation, etc.) as a matter of party philosophy. It's bad for democracy and bad for society and Republicans actively revel in it. It's revolting. Seeing the financial industry buy a party in order to buy its way back into the absence of regulation is dispiriting because it's going to have a real impact on the way our economy lurches from crisis to crisis.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 06, 2012, 08:38:58 AM
Dems spent a year and a half labeling Scott Walker as the spawn of Satan. There was tons of free media. If what Walker was doing was so horrific, the money advantage can't be used as an excuse.

Jon Corzine outspent Bob Franks by how much in New Jersey in 2000? He won by only three points in a Presidential election year as a Democrat. Corzine wasn't unpopular either. Walker, however, had a huge money advantage as well but was supposedly evil. That should be enough to overcome the money advantage, right?

Bottom line: Walker wasn't nearly as unpopular as many imagined and certainly wasn't worthy of being recalled.

And the Dems have the Senate by one seat. That's not a statewide narrative and it will only last six months. It's a victory for Dems/labor, sure, but it's minuscule in comparison to the other race of the night.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 06, 2012, 08:43:35 AM
Dems spent a year and a half labeling Scott Walker as the spawn of Satan. There was tons of free media. If what Walker was doing was so horrific, the money advantage can't be used as an excuse.

Jon Corzine outspent Bob Franks by how much in New Jersey in 2000? He won by only three points in a Presidential election year as a Democrat. Corzine wasn't unpopular either. Walker, however, had a huge money advantage as well but was supposedly evil. That should be enough to overcome the money advantage, right?

Bottom line: Walker wasn't nearly as unpopular as many imagined and certainly wasn't worthy of being recalled.

And the Dems have the Senate by one seat. That's not a statewide narrative and it will only last six months. It's a victory for Dems/labor, sure, but it's minuscule in comparison to the other race of the night.

I've said pretty consistently here that Walker wasn't going to be successfully recalled. The exit poll gave me false hope it was going to be close, but going back months the projections were clear that there wasn't a majority to pull him out of the governorship.

I was responding to American Nation's comment that the Dems had a steamroller in this race. Do you feel Dems had a steamroller in this race when Walker outspent them 10-1? The national Dems saw the writing on the wall and held back from this. Meanwhile, the Republicans' funding network poured in big money.

If you want to cite Corzine as an example that money doesn't make a difference, you and I both know we can find a few bazillion races in between where it did. And I'm not saying that if it had been $10m to $10m that Barrett would have won, but we can't know, and if it had been Barrett at $30m to Walker with $3m, I can pretty easily imagine your post here about it.



Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 06, 2012, 09:14:58 AM
Dems spent a year and a half labeling Scott Walker as the spawn of Satan. There was tons of free media. If what Walker was doing was so horrific, the money advantage can't be used as an excuse.

Jon Corzine outspent Bob Franks by how much in New Jersey in 2000? He won by only three points in a Presidential election year as a Democrat. Corzine wasn't unpopular either. Walker, however, had a huge money advantage as well but was supposedly evil. That should be enough to overcome the money advantage, right?

Bottom line: Walker wasn't nearly as unpopular as many imagined and certainly wasn't worthy of being recalled.

And the Dems have the Senate by one seat. That's not a statewide narrative and it will only last six months. It's a victory for Dems/labor, sure, but it's minuscule in comparison to the other race of the night.

I've said pretty consistently here that Walker wasn't going to be successfully recalled. The exit poll gave me false hope it was going to be close, but going back months the projections were clear that there wasn't a majority to pull him out of the governorship.

I was responding to American Nation's comment that the Dems had a steamroller in this race. Do you feel Dems had a steamroller in this race when Walker outspent them 10-1? The national Dems saw the writing on the wall and held back from this. Meanwhile, the Republicans' funding network poured in big money.

If you want to cite Corzine as an example that money doesn't make a difference, you and I both know we can find a few bazillion races in between where it did. And I'm not saying that if it had been $10m to $10m that Barrett would have won, but we can't know, and if it had been Barrett at $30m to Walker with $3m, I can pretty easily imagine your post here about it.



Dems (as well as Republicans) had plenty of ground troops especially from out of staters. Labor forces are supposed to be a steamroller in Wisconsin.

As for the money advantage, please don't assume what my response would be of Barrett had the insane advantage. How much did Obama outspend McCain by? I didn't complain. I'll note when someone has the advantage (and it might irritate me if the opposition has that or any advabtage but that's politics. I dont whine that it's unfair. I guess I do "whine" about a Corzine situation when an individual pumps tens of millions of their own money for a seat but only because I personally find it crazy) and, yes, most times it makes a difference but a situation like this? It wasn't the deciding factor.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 06, 2012, 09:17:32 AM
Actually Phil, you did throw a fit about Obama opting out of public funding.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Brittain33 on June 06, 2012, 09:19:18 AM
How much did Obama outspend McCain by? I didn't complain.

Because it didn't matter and Obama was going to win anyway.

Quote
I'll note when someone has the advantage (and it might irritate me if the opposition has that or any advabtage but that's politics. I dont whine that it's unfair.

I didn't "whine" that it's unfair. I also think that since it's exception for a Dem to have this advantage, it would be counterproductive for a Republican to complain.

I gave my reasons as to why I think it's bad for democracy and government in my above post. Do you think having tons of money in politics is good?

Quote
I guess I do "whine" about a Corzine situation when an individual pumps tens of millions of their own money for a seat but only because I personally find it crazy) and, yes, most times it makes a difference but a situation like this? It wasn't the deciding factor.

I don't think it was the deciding factor. However, it certainly didn't hurt.

I was responding to American Nation's post that Dems had a steamroller advantage in WI.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 06, 2012, 09:35:38 AM
Actually Phil, you did throw a fit about Obama opting out of public funding.

...because of hypocrisy. It had nothing to do with the actual act of opting out. Nice fail again, dude. I love when you do that.

How much did Obama outspend McCain by? I didn't complain.

Because it didn't matter and Obama was going to win anyway.

Oh, ok. So that makes it fine. ::)

But that's actually my point (and I can make that point because I don't think it's an unfair practice): Walker was going to win anyway.

Quote


I didn't "whine" that it's unfair. I also think that since it's exception for a Dem to have this advantage, it would be counterproductive for a Republican to complain.

I gave my reasons as to why I think it's bad for democracy and government in my above post. Do you think having tons of money in politics is good?

And I'm not discussing whether it's "good" or not. It's not unfair in my opinion.

And now I understand why you're allowed to whine: because it usually benefits Republicans. What a joke.

Quote
I was responding to American Nation's post that Dems had a steamroller advantage in WI.

And I addressed that.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 06, 2012, 10:07:58 AM
I was responding to American Nation's post that Dems had a steamroller advantage in WI.
1) I didn't say they had a "steamroller advantage."  I said they have an "advantage" and they miscalculated by trying to use it to "steamroll democracy."  then I immediately said it created a backlash.  How did you warp that so much?

2) Democrats spent OVER 20 million, so this MSNBC spending excuse crap needs to stop now.  You only need 10 million to run a statewide campaign in this state.  

3) This is only what has been 'tracked' so far.  Millions are still unaccounted for.   

http://www.maciverinstitute.com/2012/06/big-labor-recall-total-to-exceed-20-million/

()


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 06, 2012, 10:28:00 AM
]
The democrats have a huge permanent turnkey infrastructure in Wisconsin that will produce 45% of the vote every time.  

Bzzt.

1990    Tommy Thompson (R/inc.) 58%    Thomas A. Loftus (D) 42%
1994    Tommy Thompson (R/inc.) 67%    Charles J. Chvala (D) 30%
1998    Tommy Thompson (R/inc.) 60%    Ed Garvey (D) 39%
I was talking about NOW specifically and in those elections, Thompson picked off a significant amount of the black vote that is easily described as part of the dem "infrastructure" or "machine."  Also, being the most popular politician in the history of the state "helps."  Given the amount of hate being preached by the dems, I don't know if that will happen again.  

PS,
This sums up why Walker won perfectly.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/why-scott-walker-won-battle-wisconsin_646696.html


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 06, 2012, 12:04:45 PM
What matters is we took the Senate, so Walker will at least be leashed.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: LastVoter on June 06, 2012, 12:45:47 PM
What matters is we took the Senate, so Walker will at least be leashed.

That isn't true (the part about leashing Walker).

From the America-hating nutjobs at DailyKos: "Lehman's victory gives Democrats a majority of seats in the chamber, though the legislature is not scheduled to meet again until next year—that is, after the November elections in which control of the body will once again be up for grabs. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/06/06/1097772/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-Scott-Walker-survives-recall-but-Democrats-take-state-Senate?detail=hide

So contrary to what a lot of Dems on this board are saying, y'all really got N-O-T-H-I-N-G out of this recall, no matter how you slice it.
Really? I'm sure that Walker would be calling a special session or equvalent first thing today if that Senator wouldn't be recalled.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on June 06, 2012, 12:46:36 PM
What matters is we took the Senate...
So you spent between 50 and 100 million dollars and you get to "pretend" to have control of the Wisconsin State Senate for 5 months.  Wow.




Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 06, 2012, 01:39:14 PM
Walker
Campaign: $29 million
Outside Groups: $16 million

Barrett
Campaign: $3 million
Outside Groups: $6 million

Also, could this site get any f**king slower during an election night?

Big deal.  It's not Republicans fault if Wisconsin Dems can't raise the big bucks.  And let's face it, it takes big bucks to compete in and to win elections in this era.


Good job missing the point.

That money barely influences election results? (http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/01/17/how-much-does-campaign-spending-influence-the-election-a-freakonomics-quorum/)

No, that it does. (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/21/opinion/l21brooks.html)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on June 06, 2012, 01:40:50 PM
What matters is we took the Senate...
So you spent between 50 and 100 million dollars and you get to "pretend" to have control of the Wisconsin State Senate for 5 months.  Wow.

I hardly think it's completely inconceivable that a bare Democratic advantage in the state senate could continue to exist after November (granted, it's distinctly unlikely on account of the gerrymandering), but admittedly it's not like this was done last year when it actually would have, well, mattered.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 06, 2012, 01:43:05 PM
What matters is we took the Senate, so Walker will at least be leashed.

That isn't true (the part about leashing Walker).

From the America-hating nutjobs at DailyKos: "Lehman's victory gives Democrats a majority of seats in the chamber, though the legislature is not scheduled to meet again until next year—that is, after the November elections in which control of the body will once again be up for grabs. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/06/06/1097772/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-Scott-Walker-survives-recall-but-Democrats-take-state-Senate?detail=hide

So contrary to what a lot of Dems on this board are saying, y'all really got N-O-T-H-I-N-G out of this recall, no matter how you slice it.

So then, regardless of what the outcome was, neither the governor or the legislature would've been able to do anything?  At least Walker can't do any more damage for now, then.

Also, please change your avatar.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on June 06, 2012, 01:44:12 PM
So then, regardless of what the outcome was, neither the governor or the legislature would've been able to do anything?  At least Walker can't do any more damage, then.

Not for another half a year or so, anyway. The state senate redistricting was admittedly rather, shall we say, skilful.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 06, 2012, 01:49:41 PM
Walker
Campaign: $29 million
Outside Groups: $16 million

Barrett
Campaign: $3 million
Outside Groups: $6 million

Also, could this site get any f**king slower during an election night?

Big deal.  It's not Republicans fault if Wisconsin Dems can't raise the big bucks.  And let's face it, it takes big bucks to compete in and to win elections in this era.


Good job missing the point.

That money barely influences election results? (http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/01/17/how-much-does-campaign-spending-influence-the-election-a-freakonomics-quorum/)

No, that it does. (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/21/opinion/l21brooks.html)

So, we've established that money influences elections. What we haven't established is why Democrats only care about that when  they're being outspent. Funny how there's an inverse relationship btwn Democrats' level of concern about $ in politics & how much they have to spend.

Do stop being a hack.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 06, 2012, 01:56:30 PM

Is this what you do when you can't make a coherent argument? Start calling people hacks and asking them to change their avators? It's always fun figuring out who to avoid like the plague around here.

Every bit of what you said is subjective and, quite frankly, completely rude.  Most Democrats (or at least, the ones that aren't corporate pets) support limiting campaign contributions.  Unfortunately, the Supreme Court threw that out.  Democrats don't just complain whenever they're outspent, so stop with the partisan hackery.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Incipimus iterum on June 06, 2012, 01:58:56 PM
i fell like that i need to say this can we stop arguing


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on June 06, 2012, 02:00:52 PM
What matters is we took the Senate...
So you spent between 50 and 100 million dollars and you get to "pretend" to have control of the Wisconsin State Senate for 5 months.  Wow.

I hardly think it's completely inconceivable that a bare Democratic advantage in the state senate could continue to exist after November (granted, it's distinctly unlikely on account of the gerrymandering), but admittedly it's not like this was done last year when it actually would have, well, mattered.

Districts 12 and 18 are 3/7 points, respectively, to the right of the state as a whole. Walker just 60% (probably more) in district 18. Good luck.

Incidentally the state senate redistricting was really not that skillful. The state assembly redistricting, which baconstrips swingy suburban Milwaukee County into Waukesha County, was.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 06, 2012, 02:02:33 PM

Is this what you do when you can't make a coherent argument? Start calling people hacks and asking them to change their avators? It's always fun figuring out who to avoid like the plague around here.

Every bit of what you said is subjective and, quite frankly, completely rude.  Most Democrats (or at least, the ones that aren't corporate pets) support limiting campaign contributions.  Unfortunately, the Supreme Court threw that out.  Democrats don't just complain whenever they're outspent, so stop with the partisan hackery.


Haha - ok, I'll make sure not to point out Democratic hypocrisy in the future, all because you called me a hack. But seriously, go sleep it off or something. Sounds like you're still a little down about last night. Don't worry, you'll forget all about the recall soon :p

Uh, you're the one making the rude comments.  Try looking back.  You are the one being a sore winner, and that is clear in your comments.

Turn the computer off and go outside, little child.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 06, 2012, 02:10:49 PM

Is this what you do when you can't make a coherent argument? Start calling people hacks and asking them to change their avators? It's always fun figuring out who to avoid like the plague around here.

Every bit of what you said is subjective and, quite frankly, completely rude.  Most Democrats (or at least, the ones that aren't corporate pets) support limiting campaign contributions.  Unfortunately, the Supreme Court threw that out.  Democrats don't just complain whenever they're outspent, so stop with the partisan hackery.


Haha - ok, I'll make sure not to point out Democratic hypocrisy in the future, all because you called me a hack. But seriously, go sleep it off or something. Sounds like you're still a little down about last night. Don't worry, you'll forget all about the recall soon :p

Uh, you're the one making the rude comments.  Try looking back.  You are the one being a sore winner, and that is clear in your comments.

Turn the computer off and go outside, little child.

I was replying to a post you made about how money matters in elections. I replied by asking you if you felt the same way when Obama had all the money. You replied by calling me a hack. Dude, you have problems.

You said absolutely nothing about Obama in your post, so now you're just lying.

What you don't seem to get is there used to be limits on how much corporations and individuals could give to candidates.  Now there are not.   2012 is very different from 2008.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Vosem on June 06, 2012, 02:23:51 PM

What you don't seem to get is there used to be limits on how much corporations and individuals could give to candidates.  Now there are not. 

Now we have to make sure it stays that way (shouldn't be too difficult) and that the people approve of this policy, which will take effort. It would also be heartening to see other nations adopt similar laws, of course.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 06, 2012, 02:32:04 PM

What you don't seem to get is there used to be limits on how much corporations and individuals could give to candidates.  Now there are not. 

Now we have to make sure it stays that way (shouldn't be too difficult) and that the people approve of this policy, which will take effort. It would also be heartening to see other nations adopt similar laws, of course.

Why?  So corporations can continue buying/controlling politicians and legislation?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Incipimus iterum on June 06, 2012, 02:53:25 PM
we need to make sure that we can have transparency in campaign finance.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 06, 2012, 02:57:03 PM
Could everyone grow the fyck up, please? Diolch.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Vosem on June 06, 2012, 02:58:12 PM

What you don't seem to get is there used to be limits on how much corporations and individuals could give to candidates.  Now there are not. 

Now we have to make sure it stays that way (shouldn't be too difficult) and that the people approve of this policy, which will take effort. It would also be heartening to see other nations adopt similar laws, of course.

Why?  So corporations can continue buying/controlling politicians and legislation?

Because not allowing you to spend money in support of your candidate -- yes, however much you want, even if that number exceeds some arbitrary limit -- is frankly rather authoritarian.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Sbane on June 06, 2012, 03:45:10 PM
Why do some people here want a plutocracy? You childish hacks, this is not a partisan issue, but rather something that could fundamentally change how the country operates. Do all you Republicans really support wealthy people and corporations controlling political campaigns? And please don't respond with some silly "omgz obama did it too omgz", but rather how you truly feel campaigns should be run. And while money isn't always that important in races like for President or Governor (especially when the candidate being bombarded is well known like Jerry Brown), they do matter for lower level races.

Anyways, what we need is transparency. If you donate money to a campaign, everyone should be able to know immediately who you donated to and how much. Not months after the fact when the campaign might be over. And even that isn't enough. Citizens v United will ruin this country, and it's sickening to see some celebrating it. This is not a partisan issue, and I hope you Republicans who are being benefited now will recognize that.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on June 06, 2012, 03:52:02 PM

What you don't seem to get is there used to be limits on how much corporations and individuals could give to candidates.  Now there are not.  

Now we have to make sure it stays that way (shouldn't be too difficult) and that the people approve of this policy, which will take effort. It would also be heartening to see other nations adopt similar laws, of course.

Why?  So corporations can continue buying/controlling politicians and legislation?

Because not allowing you to spend money in support of your candidate -- yes, however much you want, even if that number exceeds some arbitrary limit -- is frankly rather authoritarian.

And letting the guy who has all of the cash make the decisions is not (whether it's Democrats or Republicans calling the shots)?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Torie on June 06, 2012, 06:24:55 PM
On this money thing, the Dems could have poured money into the sinkhole if they wanted to. They wisely chose not to. Plus, internal public employee union communications, facilitation, transportation, and boots on the ground is not counted in the financial figures. Finally, money has decreasing marginal returns. I suspect most voters were aware of the key issues.

In other news, the public employee unions took it on the chin in San Diego (where the Pubs may be headed to taking over the city council to boot), and in San Jose. They had a really bad night. There appears to be a new sheriff in town.

()


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Sbane on June 06, 2012, 10:22:00 PM
Do you think these ballot measures in SD and SJ are legal? If so that is a good measure to put on the state ballot. I bet it would pass easily.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Nichlemn on June 06, 2012, 10:24:06 PM
There might be a good case for restricting donations if there was evidence that lots of money can buy elections. There isn't. (http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/01/17/how-much-does-campaign-spending-influence-the-election-a-freakonomics-quorum/)


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Eraserhead on June 06, 2012, 11:21:08 PM
So Walker +6.8 is final margin, it seems. Solid win for him. A bit bigger than I was expecting.

It's kind of cool that the Dems actually took the Senate though, I guess. I was kind of surprised when I read that this morning.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: CatoMinor on June 06, 2012, 11:48:40 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC_ult6-Tb4

Here is the inevitable "Hitler finds out..." video lol..


Title: Scott Walker Recall Goes Dead
Post by: BigSkyBob on June 07, 2012, 11:22:42 AM
The left's other hope for removing Walker has been the possibility that he is convicted for alleged crimes in Milwaukee. Now that the recall bullet has been fired,  he can't be recalled even if indicted. Even if convicted, he would merely have to resign, allowing his Lt Governor to serve at least one year before being subject to recall. Nor, do I believe Walker would opt for a "speedy trial." Whatever happens, it looks like there will be a Republican governor in Wisconsin until the 2014 election.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: minionofmidas on June 08, 2012, 09:06:19 AM
Could everyone grow the fyck up, please? Diolch.
Bit late for that, is it not?


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on June 08, 2012, 04:14:37 PM
Walker actually won a ward in Madison proper, a very suburban area on the far west side.

At the other extreme, there were eleven Barrett 90+ wards in the city - two in minority areas on the south side, one on campus, one off Monroe St, and then seven contiguous wards (of which two were 95+) encompassing the area basically from Blair St. out to Commercial Ave. between the lakes and Starkweather Creek.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on August 19, 2012, 08:33:19 AM
Walker actually won a ward in Madison proper, a very suburban area on the far west side.

At the other extreme, there were eleven Barrett 90+ wards in the city - two in minority areas on the south side, one on campus, one off Monroe St, and then seven contiguous wards (of which two were 95+) encompassing the area basically from Blair St. out to Commercial Ave. between the lakes and Starkweather Creek.
On some levels that is scary. On others, sad.  Lot's of mixed feelings about the peoples republic of Madistan.   


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on August 19, 2012, 10:20:48 AM
Primary results in Milwaukee County.

http://whitefishbay.patch.com/articles/pasch-wins-10th-assembly-district-seat

The village voted for Pasch by an overwhelming majority — nearly 96 percent, according to unofficial results from the Shorewood Village Clerk's office.

Of the 3,531 ballots cast in her favor, Pasch received 2,060 from Shorewood residents, which is 35 percent of all of those who voted in the race.






Amazing!  White liberals in shorewood decide to vote in lockstep for a white liberal to overtake the votes of 44k 80+% black precincts in Milwaukee.

Pasch appears to have gotten roughly 1600 votes in Milwaukee precincts while the black candidate Coby got roughly 1950 votes in Milwaukee.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on August 19, 2012, 11:11:08 AM
Primary results in Milwaukee County.

http://whitefishbay.patch.com/articles/pasch-wins-10th-assembly-district-seat

The village voted for Pasch by an overwhelming majority — nearly 96 percent, according to unofficial results from the Shorewood Village Clerk's office.

Of the 3,531 ballots cast in her favor, Pasch received 2,060 from Shorewood residents, which is 35 percent of all of those who voted in the race.






Amazing!  White liberals in shorewood decide to vote in lockstep for a white liberal to overtake the votes of 44k 80+% black precincts in Milwaukee.

Pasch appears to have gotten roughly 1600 votes in Milwaukee precincts while the black candidate Coby got roughly 1950 votes in Milwaukee.

Krazen unexpectedly forgets to mention that Pasch was already representing Shorewood and that she, unlike the other candidates, campaigned door-to-door.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: krazen1211 on August 19, 2012, 04:08:42 PM
Primary results in Milwaukee County.

http://whitefishbay.patch.com/articles/pasch-wins-10th-assembly-district-seat

The village voted for Pasch by an overwhelming majority — nearly 96 percent, according to unofficial results from the Shorewood Village Clerk's office.

Of the 3,531 ballots cast in her favor, Pasch received 2,060 from Shorewood residents, which is 35 percent of all of those who voted in the race.






Amazing!  White liberals in shorewood decide to vote in lockstep for a white liberal to overtake the votes of 44k 80+% black precincts in Milwaukee.

Pasch appears to have gotten roughly 1600 votes in Milwaukee precincts while the black candidate Coby got roughly 1950 votes in Milwaukee.

Krazen unexpectedly forgets to mention that Pasch was already representing Shorewood and that she, unlike the other candidates, campaigned door-to-door.

Oh yes, I'm well aware of that. What is interesting, other than the absurd soviet style 96-3 margin, is that the black candidate was from Shorewood while Pasch is from Whitefish Bay!

It's no wonder that blacks demand their own districts when white liberals parachute in from elsewhere and steal their districts. Coby had the support of much of the Milwaukee black establishment, but obviously that was not enough to stop Pasch.


Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on August 21, 2012, 06:51:09 AM
Primary results in Milwaukee County.

http://whitefishbay.patch.com/articles/pasch-wins-10th-assembly-district-seat

The village voted for Pasch by an overwhelming majority — nearly 96 percent, according to unofficial results from the Shorewood Village Clerk's office.

Of the 3,531 ballots cast in her favor, Pasch received 2,060 from Shorewood residents, which is 35 percent of all of those who voted in the race.






Amazing!  White liberals in shorewood decide to vote in lockstep for a white liberal to overtake the votes of 44k 80+% black precincts in Milwaukee.

Pasch appears to have gotten roughly 1600 votes in Milwaukee precincts while the black candidate Coby got roughly 1950 votes in Milwaukee.

Krazen unexpectedly forgets to mention that Pasch was already representing Shorewood and that she, unlike the other candidates, campaigned door-to-door.

Oh yes, I'm well aware of that. What is interesting, other than the absurd soviet style 96-3 margin, is that the black candidate was from Shorewood while Pasch is from Whitefish Bay!

It's no wonder that blacks demand their own districts when white liberals parachute in from elsewhere and steal their districts. Coby had the support of much of the Milwaukee black establishment, but obviously that was not enough to stop Pasch.
Amazing how much the media covered the congressional redistricting and portrayed it as an extreme+illegal republican conspiracy (when in fact it was just about the least aggressive a party with complete control could possibly be) (the only court action was to move a line dividing two DEMOCRAT districts so that Hispanics would have a better chance at representation) and this systematic wipe out of black officials at the hands of east side white 'progressives' is "nothing to see here, nothing happening here, I'm shocked--shocked at the suggestion."



Title: Re: Scott Walker recall goes live
Post by: AmericanNation on August 21, 2012, 07:03:06 AM
News on the indictment of Governor Walker that will happen "any day now" for the last 27 months...
http://wisconsinreporter.com/exclusive-da-questions-john-doe-evidence-gathering-methods

The Milwaukee County DA is apparently expanding the net into state government ('covertly' via open records request), despite the fact that the John Doe investigation started  (at Walker's request) before Walker was elected governor and despite the fact that it appears to be unusual, desperate, and out of jurisdiction.  Apparently you can be perpetually investigated forever (27 months and counting) for no reason in the democrats version of America.  This witch hunt needed to end yesterday.