Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: RogueBeaver on November 19, 2011, 02:57:51 PM



Title: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 19, 2011, 02:57:51 PM
As the Economist notes.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/11/politics-local


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Bacon King on November 19, 2011, 06:24:17 PM
"Mr. Dewhurst, a friend of the fetus and the 1%"

lol


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 19, 2011, 11:18:22 PM
"Mr. Dewhurst, a friend of the fetus and the 1%"

lol

A friend of moderates and the state establishment is more like it. We're seeing this pattern emerge fairly often in GOP primaries since 2010: a star candidate supported by the national intelligentsia in alliance with the TP (what I call "fusionist") v. a local-establishment candidate with moderately conservative views.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 20, 2011, 12:06:24 AM
Dewhurst wil probably start debating in the New Year- the media pressure will become too great.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/20/us/sometimes-its-just-easier-to-run-against-obama.html


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: krazen1211 on December 16, 2011, 07:12:52 PM
The Democrat (Sanchez) appears to have dropped out. Not that it matters.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 16, 2011, 07:38:09 PM
The Democrat (Sanchez) appears to have dropped out. Not that it matters.

But an extra few months for the Republicans does. Polling is a total crapshoot, but by all indications Cruz is handily winning the ground war.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/12/primary-deal-wi.php


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: jimrtex on December 16, 2011, 08:11:43 PM
The Democrat (Sanchez) appears to have dropped out. Not that it matters.

Sean Hubbard (http://www.hubbardforsenate.com/about-sean-hubbard/)

Daniel Boone (http://boonefortexas.com/)


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: redcommander on December 17, 2011, 12:57:38 AM
The Democrat (Sanchez) appears to have dropped out. Not that it matters.

Sean Hubbard (http://www.hubbardforsenate.com/about-sean-hubbard/)

Daniel Boone (http://boonefortexas.com/)

Well at least they'll be able to run a warm body against whoever the Republicans nominate (Hopefully Cruz).


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 17, 2011, 04:57:23 PM
The Democrat (Sanchez) appears to have dropped out. Not that it matters.

Sean Hubbard (http://www.hubbardforsenate.com/about-sean-hubbard/)

Daniel Boone (http://boonefortexas.com/)

Well at least they'll be able to run a warm body against whoever the Republicans nominate (Hopefully Cruz).

So is this Tara Hollis or Alvin Greene level of desperation?


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: tmthforu94 on December 17, 2011, 05:27:41 PM
The Democrat (Sanchez) appears to have dropped out. Not that it matters.

Sean Hubbard (http://www.hubbardforsenate.com/about-sean-hubbard/)

Daniel Boone (http://boonefortexas.com/)
I seriously think I might look older than Hubbard...and I'm 17.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 17, 2011, 06:03:08 PM
The Democrat (Sanchez) appears to have dropped out. Not that it matters.

Sean Hubbard (http://www.hubbardforsenate.com/about-sean-hubbard/)

Daniel Boone (http://boonefortexas.com/)
I seriously think I might look older than Hubbard...and I'm 17.

I think he looks younger than Mandel.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Oakvale on December 17, 2011, 07:36:09 PM
The Democrat (Sanchez) appears to have dropped out. Not that it matters.

Sean Hubbard (http://www.hubbardforsenate.com/about-sean-hubbard/)

Daniel Boone (http://boonefortexas.com/)

Well at least they'll be able to run a warm body against whoever the Republicans nominate (Hopefully Cruz).

So is this Tara Hollis or Alvin Greene level of desperation?

Apparently. I mean, the Democratic bench in Texas consists of, who, Bill White and no-one else? Oh well, it's not like this was going to be a pickup anyway.

EDIT: Wait, isn't Chet Edwards out of a job? Someone call him quick and keep the margin of loss sem-respectable.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 17, 2011, 07:44:06 PM
Democrats can always vote for Leppert or Dewhurst. :) Especially Leppert. Dewhurst is more a KBH clone (minus her pro-choice position).




Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Reginald on December 22, 2011, 12:49:44 AM
In continuing with news that won't affect the outcome of this race at all, former football player, current ESPN personality, and all-around smarmy jackass Craig James is entering the Republican primary.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/espn-college-football-analyst-craig-james-to-run-for-us-senate-in-texas-gop-fundraiser-says/2011/12/19/gIQAvZ9h4O_story.html

Quote
“Washington is busted up, and I understand how the economy works because I have been concerned about continuing to provide jobs in this economy, not 10 years ago, not 15, not 20 years ago. I live in this economy, I get it,” James told The Associated Press. “We need someone from what I call real street, this is what separates me (from the other candidates).”

::) So there's that.

This is really shaping up to quite the mundane race.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 22, 2011, 12:59:13 AM
In continuing with news that won't affect the outcome of this race at all, former football player, current ESPN personality, and all-around smarmy jackass Craig James is entering the Republican primary.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/espn-college-football-analyst-craig-james-to-run-for-us-senate-in-texas-gop-fundraiser-says/2011/12/19/gIQAvZ9h4O_story.html

Quote
“Washington is busted up, and I understand how the economy works because I have been concerned about continuing to provide jobs in this economy, not 10 years ago, not 15, not 20 years ago. I live in this economy, I get it,” James told The Associated Press. “We need someone from what I call real street, this is what separates me (from the other candidates).”

::) So there's that.

This is really shaping up to quite the mundane race.

Yep. Given how late the primary now is, Cruz should have a smooth ride over Deweyhurst.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Reginald on December 22, 2011, 03:51:43 AM
In continuing with news that won't affect the outcome of this race at all, former football player, current ESPN personality, and all-around smarmy jackass Craig James is entering the Republican primary.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/espn-college-football-analyst-craig-james-to-run-for-us-senate-in-texas-gop-fundraiser-says/2011/12/19/gIQAvZ9h4O_story.html

Quote
“Washington is busted up, and I understand how the economy works because I have been concerned about continuing to provide jobs in this economy, not 10 years ago, not 15, not 20 years ago. I live in this economy, I get it,” James told The Associated Press. “We need someone from what I call real street, this is what separates me (from the other candidates).”

::) So there's that.

This is really shaping up to quite the mundane race.

Yep. Given how late the primary now is, Cruz should have a smooth ride over Deweyhurst.

Cruz does indeed have the momentum. I would like to see a new poll here though; IIRC, the last few have showed widely differing numbers for Dewhurst in particular.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on December 24, 2011, 12:23:12 AM
Craig James killed five hookers at SMU.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Reginald on December 24, 2011, 05:37:00 PM
Craig James killed five hookers at SMU.

A fact that will only become more widely known as the unsuspecting Texas populace Googles him. Perfectly Santorumesque.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: exopolitician on December 25, 2011, 04:48:04 AM
I wish Chris Bell would run, or Bill White. :(

Hubbard seems to be the only choice id support. *sigh*


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 03, 2012, 12:49:12 PM
Perry endorses Dewhurst.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/01/perry-supportin.php


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 11, 2012, 04:20:12 PM
Cruz is now outraising both Dewhurst and Leppert (who's not a threat anyways) in funds- and Deweyhurst is in debt to boot despite most of his cash being his own. Tomorrow's debate should be fun.

http://www.texasgopvote.com/2012-elections/texas-us-senate-debate-jan-12-w-cruz-dewhurst-james-addison-leppert-cruz-1-fundr-003719



Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 12, 2012, 09:03:51 PM
Now we know why Dewhurst ducked all those debates- Cruz is wiping the floor with him. Plus Dewhurst kept stuttering, speaking so slowly you'd think he's drugged, and had a couple of 30-second pauses before answering.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Reginald on January 18, 2012, 08:26:30 PM
PPP says: Dewhurst 36%, Cruz 18%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_0117.pdf (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_0117.pdf)

Cruz is only at +1 in favorability (15-14), while Dewhurst is at +22 (41-19). So it looks like Cruz still has some work to do. I was expecting him to fare a little better.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 18, 2012, 08:29:38 PM
Name ID, name ID, name ID. Dewhurst knows that once name ID equalizes and it becomes an ideological referendum, he'll share the 2010 fate of the woman he wants to replace. Runoff's not till June and Cruz has guaranteed himself a slot in there.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 24, 2012, 01:41:40 PM
Cruz has now pulled even with Dewhurst in fundraising.

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/289091/cruz-ing-past-4-million-mark


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 27, 2012, 10:58:27 PM
TPE has endorsed Cruz.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 26, 2012, 04:39:08 PM
Perry has endorsed Dewhurst, but the LG's 38-27 lead is entirely due to name recognition. All 3 candidates are on the air.

http://atr.rollcall.com/texas-gop-senate-candidates-place-major-ad-buys/



Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Reginald on May 12, 2012, 02:25:08 AM
Some good news for Cruz: Palin's endorsed him (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/10/sarah-palin-endorses-ted-cruz-senate-texas_n_1507213.html). Both Ron and Rand Paul have as well.

With this, I'd say a runoff is inevitable at this point. Dewhurst has been polling above 50 recently (though one poll was a Dewhurst internal), but now we've heard from Sarah Palin, Cruz will probably be getting quite a generous bump.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 12, 2012, 11:23:56 AM
The last PPP poll pegged it at 38-27. Cruz will do to Dewhurst what Perry did to KBH come runoff time.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Miles on May 24, 2012, 01:02:50 PM
Dewhurst is at 46%; he may be able to cling to an outright majority. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/dewhurst-close-to-50.html)


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 24, 2012, 01:15:50 PM
Huh? That's a bit higher than UT/TT and BOR had it. Also, if Texans want Dewhurst then there's no point in KBH retiring. Apart from abortion they're identical on the issues and of similar age. And at least KBH can speak in public.



Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 24, 2012, 02:07:59 PM
As a Democrat who is voting for Santorum for the lulz and believes that the ultimate goal of politics should be the abolition of the wage system, which Republican should I support in the Senate primary? I assume Dewhurst is the more "moderate" (hahaha) one? Do any of the candidates have any zany libertarian positions like drug legalization or scrapping the PATRIOT act or opposing SOPA and CISPA and similar?


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 24, 2012, 02:12:04 PM
As a Democrat who is voting for Santorum for the lulz and believes that the ultimate goal of politics should be the abolition of the wage system, which Republican should I support in the Senate primary? I assume Dewhurst is the more "moderate" (hahaha) one? Do any of the candidates have any zany libertarian positions like drug legalization or scrapping the PATRIOT act or opposing SOPA and CISPA and similar?

Dewhurst is a pro-life, male KBH. James doesn't have any issues, just an empty suit. Ideologically I'd peg the continuum as Dewhurst -> Leppert -> Cruz.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 24, 2012, 02:36:06 PM
Reg, which result sounds more accurate to you? The TT/UT one or this one? I'm a bit surprised at Dewhurst tying Cruz among TP voters.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Reginald on May 25, 2012, 04:44:06 AM
Reg, which result sounds more accurate to you? The TT/UT one or this one? I'm a bit surprised at Dewhurst tying Cruz among TP voters.

I'm guessing we'll be seeing something closer to PPP on Tuesday, despite some of those crosstabs being indeed pretty odd. Cruz could certainly surprise though, especially with that Palin endorsement (Santorum's just endorsed him as well).

Good to know that Cruz's supporters are more excited to vote as well; I had wondered if the state of the Presidential primary was going to depress turnout for those more likely to vote Cruz, but that doesn't appear to be the case if PPP's accurate.

In any case, I'll be pretty surprised if Dewhurst exceeds 50. Perhaps a chunk of these Leppert voters end up going with Dewhurst at the last minute? That's really the only scenario that'd make sense to me, but Leppert's numbers appear to actually be solid.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: tpfkaw on May 25, 2012, 08:52:57 AM
Do any of the candidates have any zany libertarian positions like drug legalization or scrapping the PATRIOT act or opposing SOPA and CISPA and similar?

Cruz opposes SOPA, NDAA and the TSA.  Glenn Addison is the Paulite in the race (whom the Pauls declined to endorse in favor of Cruz, trololol).


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 25, 2012, 10:43:03 PM
Dewhurst is quite deservedly getting a lot of blowback for that ridiculous ad accusing Cruz of supporting amnesty. I'd call it projection. Dewhurst supports in-state tuition for illegals, supports sanctuary cities, opposes E-Verify and a fence. A guy left of Obama on immigration tied among TP voters? Yeah right.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: tpfkaw on May 25, 2012, 10:46:38 PM
Dewhurst is quite deservedly getting a lot of blowback for that ridiculous ad accusing Cruz of supporting amnesty. I'd call it projection. Dewhurst supports in-state tuition for illegals, supports sanctuary cities, opposes E-Verify and a fence. A guy left of Obama on immigration tied among TP voters? Yeah right.

Sounds like a bit of race-baiting to me.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 25, 2012, 11:17:03 PM
All of Dewhurst's attacks are guilt-by-association smears, including this one.* Race baiting is Crist all but calling Rubio a coconut 2 years ago.

*In this case, apparently because Cruz serves on the board of 2 Hispanic organizations with members who support Dewhurst's immigration policy, Cruz must be the amnesty candidate.

** The other attack is that Cruz's law firm once represented a PRC company in a dispute with an American company. So he's a PRC apologist. 

http://lubbockonline.com/filed-online/2012-05-25/dewhurst-cruz-put-dukes-over-immigration


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 28, 2012, 04:57:52 PM
Reposted from the primary thread.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/05/five-things-to-1.php

More from the WSJ.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303395604577432072679461042.html


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 11:15:36 AM
Apparently they're expecting slightly higher turnout in DFW due to competitive local races.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: CatoMinor on May 29, 2012, 12:18:36 PM
Apparently they're expecting slightly higher turnout in DFW due to competitive local races.
Good news for Dewhurst


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 12:30:24 PM
Apparently they're expecting slightly higher turnout in DFW due to competitive local races.
Good news for Dewhurst

Dunno if that's true or not. Reg doesn't think so. What matters is GOTV- who/where to be precise.

My own guesstimate would be Dewhurst in the 46-48 range, Cruz at 29-31, Leppert somewhere in the mid-teens. Still think a runoff is quite likely though.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 29, 2012, 02:25:59 PM
Looks like it literally is a ground war out there: just saw on CNN that someone was shot near a polling place in Texas. The headline added: "Primary voting continues." Texas is badass.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on May 29, 2012, 02:34:19 PM
Would Romney's best county be Harris?


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 03:04:03 PM
Wrong thread, Snow.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on May 29, 2012, 04:49:16 PM
Whoops. Thought this was the Texas primaries in general. :P


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 06:50:14 PM
Polls close in 10 minutes.

Texans: Who reports when, generally speaking?


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 06:58:42 PM
Politico live results.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Senate/2012/Primary/TX


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 07:24:55 PM
With 0.4% reporting: Dewhurst 43, Cruz 29, Leppert 20.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 07:38:24 PM
So far PPP is looking pretty accurate. With 1% in it's Dewhurst 45, Cruz 29, Leppert 18.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Reginald on May 29, 2012, 07:47:05 PM
DFW's pretty close between all three, according to what looks to be mostly early voting so far. Dewhurst's looking strong in the rural counties, but that's not a surprise.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 07:50:00 PM
My own inkling is that if Leppert continues to hold the DFW fort a runoff is assured. Could be wrong though.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: California8429 on May 29, 2012, 08:02:30 PM
Anyone have a place with a colored map as the results come in?


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 08:06:52 PM
None that I'm aware of. Plus there are way too many candidates this round. :P


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 08:08:34 PM
So far Dewhurst seems to be crawling upwards... about 0.1-0.2% every time something comes in.  Still very early though.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Reginald on May 29, 2012, 08:12:02 PM
First results from Harris County:

Dewhurst 52
Cruz 38
Leppert 5


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 08:12:17 PM
Dewhurst 47, Cruz 30, Leppert 15 @ 2%.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 08:14:24 PM
First results from Harris County:

Dewhurst 52
Cruz 38
Leppert 5

Hopefully that changes somewhat.

How effective do you think those ads were? From what I heard you can't turn on the TV without some Dewhurst ad- complete saturation. On the other hand, it was Memorial Day weekend.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 08:16:31 PM
Dewhurst @ 48. *Gulp*


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Reginald on May 29, 2012, 08:23:51 PM
First results from Harris County:

Dewhurst 52
Cruz 38
Leppert 5

Hopefully that changes somewhat.

How effective do you think those ads were? From what I heard you can't turn on the TV without some Dewhurst ad- complete saturation. On the other hand, it was Memorial Day weekend.

No one I've talked to has been too impressed with them (even people who are pro-Dewhurst themselves), but you're right that they have been very hard to miss.

Results seem to be coming in a bit faster. Can't help but wonder just how weak Leppert's going to be outside of DFW. :P


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Kushahontas on May 29, 2012, 08:25:07 PM
First results from Harris County:

Dewhurst 52
Cruz 38
Leppert 5

Hopefully that changes somewhat.

How effective do you think those ads were? From what I heard you can't turn on the TV without some Dewhurst ad- complete saturation. On the other hand, it was Memorial Day weekend.

can't speak for Harris, but in San Antonio metro, Dewhurst was pummeling Cruz for what seems like months with those ads. Even during Memorial Day Weekend, there was certainly no shortage. If Dewhurst should avoid a runoff tonight, guess it would confirm that you want Perry on your side as a candidate in Texas.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 08:35:25 PM
With the PRC ads presumably. The immigration ads ran starting last week. Besides being complete BS I think immigration was a bad idea for 2 reasons. 1) Highlighted Dewhurst's own weakness on that issue 2) Killed his Rose Garden strategy and forced a slugging match with Cruz.

If this goes to a runoff then Cruz should call James and Pettinger among others to thank them. And be very nice to Tom Leppert.

Perry: He's staying positive though (especially since Cruz voters were Perry's ardent backers in '10) and at least from what I read didn't make any appearances with Dewhurst.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 08:49:18 PM
Too early to predict whether there'll be a runoff? So far PPP seems to be holding up almost perfectly... but I'd feel a little better with Leppert at 15-6 and Dewhurst at 45-6.

10% in: Dewhurst 48, Cruz 31, Leppert 14.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 09:03:44 PM
15% in, numbers still unchanged. Almost eerie. Even weirder is how Dewhurst edges Leppert in Dallas while FW is a 3-way contest.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 09:09:44 PM
Apparently Leppert has conceded. After losing his own city to Dewhurst... OUCH. :P Cruz at least has the excuse that Dewhurst is also a Houston native.

21% in: Dewhurst 47, Cruz 31, Leppert 14. Looks like my prediction is doing OK for now.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Reginald on May 29, 2012, 09:10:40 PM
The SoS seems to be a bit behind, but they're showing Cruz doing better among those who voted today:

EARLY VOTES
Dewhurst 47.11%
Cruz 29.33%
Leppert 15.06%

TOTAL
Dewhurst 46.84%
Cruz 30.15%
Leppert 14.52%


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 09:16:07 PM
Not by much. Some Texans on another site I visit say that a runoff is now happening... would like to think so given how static this whole thing has been. No one moving more than 1.5 either way, Dewhurst never hitting 48.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Reginald on May 29, 2012, 09:26:09 PM
Big dump in Harris, and Dewhurst went down about a point. It's certainly looking like a runoff to me. That PPP poll really was right on.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 09:32:14 PM
Awesome. :D  Incidentally this is the first GOP Senate runoff since GHWB ran in '64.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 09:36:51 PM
Politico is also projecting a runoff. Have the local media done so yet?


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 09:47:33 PM
Never mind- everyone's called a runoff. With 43% in, Dewhurst 46, Cruz 32, Leppert 14.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Miles on May 29, 2012, 10:03:18 PM
PPP looks like its doing pretty well so far...it had Dewhurst up 46-29-15.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 10:08:52 PM
Yep. Still a bit surprised that Leppert lost Dallas County. PPP agrees with Reg: just Tweeted that Dewhurst won earlies by 18 but today's vote by 6.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 10:12:59 PM
Perry reiterates his support for Dewhurst- "We must send a proven conservative like David Dewhurst to Washington" in a statement.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Svensson on May 29, 2012, 10:51:58 PM
Uh...well, then. I think Reyes is boned, guys.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2012, 11:00:10 PM
Interesting, but wrong thread.



Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: CatoMinor on May 29, 2012, 11:08:00 PM
Unless Wise, Wharton, and Bastrop counties report in with some ungodly high turnout and all for Dewhurst, its safe to say is gonna be a run off. Addison, the guy I supported, only got ~20,000 votes, oh wellz, not like anyone expected him to break a couple percent.

I suppose I'll support Cruz for the run off. If Dewhurst wins the nomination I'll join the tens of thousands of other Paulites in the state (most of whom seem to have supported Cruz for a while now) and vote libertarian.
  
On a side note, I just took a peek at the SoS site and it appears a few State Reps have been successfully primaried. It will be interesting to see if these gentlemen all voted to keep Strauss in as Speaker.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Svensson on May 29, 2012, 11:09:27 PM

No one ever goes to the other one. :P But I see your point.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: CatoMinor on May 29, 2012, 11:11:26 PM
And holy sh*t, Cruz won Montgomery County. I did not see that happening.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Indy Texas on May 30, 2012, 12:10:16 AM
And holy sh*t, Cruz won Montgomery County. I did not see that happening.

Tea Partiers were out in full force in MoCo tonight. They also voted out State Rep. Rob Eissler (moderate Straus-appointed committee chair) in favor of TP-er Steve Toth.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Keystone Phil on May 30, 2012, 07:48:12 AM
Wow. Dewhurst slipped to under 45%. Runoff looking very, very good for Cruz, right?


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: CatoMinor on May 30, 2012, 11:11:40 AM
Wow. Dewhurst slipped to under 45%. Runoff looking very, very good for Cruz, right?

Well Cruz will have 2 months to continue to drag Dewhurst down and a lot of the tea party vote should begin to solidify behind Cruz.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 30, 2012, 11:33:02 AM
Only the high-intensity voters come out for a runoff vote. Cruz has a comfortable lead with those voters. Plus the national organizations- CFG, TPE, etc- can play Wild Weasel for Cruz and either match or dare I say, outspend Dewhurst.



Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: CatoMinor on May 30, 2012, 12:54:25 PM
Only the high-intensity voters come out for a runoff vote. Cruz has a comfortable lead with those voters. Plus the national organizations- CFG, TPE, etc- can play Wild Weasel for Cruz and either match or dare I say, outspend Dewhurst.

Though we have to consider the impact of Dewhurst side fighting back too, I can already see the adds now: "Can Texas really afford to have a hispanic senator...FROM CANADA. Vote Dewhurst to protect the borders." :p


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 30, 2012, 01:16:43 PM
Speaking of borders, that's the last subject Dewhurst should discuss given his own record there. Also LOL at playing the birther card.

Dewhurst had his own oops moment on Ingraham's show.

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2012/05/oops-dewhurst-cant-remember-am.html


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: CatoMinor on May 30, 2012, 04:58:15 PM
()


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 31, 2012, 04:20:33 PM
Some more stats courtesy of Michael Barone: a rather wide discrepancy between early voting and Tuesday's.

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/can-cruz-cruise-do-dewhurst/570676

KBH all but endorses Dewhurst.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/47616663#47616663

James endorses Dewhurst.

http://www.chron.com/news/article/James-endorses-Dewhurst-in-Texas-US-Senate-race-3599727.php


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: minionofmidas on June 02, 2012, 12:34:21 PM
One vote was cast in the Republican primary in Hudspeth County - for Lela Pittenger, who placed sixth statewide. :D (Also, Culberson next door was a tie, with six votes each for Dewhurst, Cruz, and all others combined.)


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 02, 2012, 01:24:03 PM
Apparently there might be a June 21 debate in Dallas. The more debates, the better.


Question to Texans: does the runoff have early/absentee voting?


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: CatoMinor on June 02, 2012, 03:16:44 PM
Apparently there might be a June 21 debate in Dallas. The more debates, the better.


Question to Texans: does the runoff have early/absentee voting?

Yes to both.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 02, 2012, 03:35:24 PM
Apparently there might be a June 21 debate in Dallas. The more debates, the better.


Question to Texans: does the runoff have early/absentee voting?

Yes to both.

Big Mo time then.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 09, 2012, 09:16:39 PM
Enthusiasm gap indeed.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/10/us/looking-for-reasons-for-david-dewhursts-failure-to-win-big.html?_r=1

Perry got booed at the GOP state convention when he mentioned Dewhurst and Dewhurst himself nearly got shouted off the stage.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 22, 2012, 08:57:16 AM
Debate tonight in Dallas, 9 PM Eastern.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 22, 2012, 11:26:16 PM
Debate tonight in Dallas, 9 PM Eastern.
VIA Twitter friends (Dewhurst supporters), apparently Cruz claimed Perry only endorsed Dewhurst to get him out of Austin. Uh...


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 23, 2012, 11:22:47 AM
Debate tonight in Dallas, 9 PM Eastern.
VIA Twitter friends (Dewhurst supporters), apparently Cruz claimed Perry only endorsed Dewhurst to get him out of Austin. Uh...

No, that's quite plausible from what I've heard and read.

Here's a debate roundup.

http://www.chron.com/news/article/Cruz-Dewhurst-spar-over-taxes-in-Senate-debate-3656955.php


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: CatoMinor on June 23, 2012, 11:28:59 AM
I missed the debate, but judging by his past performances, I think it is a safe bet that Cruz kicked his ass.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 23, 2012, 11:33:12 AM
I missed the debate, but judging by his past performances, I think it is a safe bet that Cruz kicked his ass.

You betcha. Especially when it came to immigration. Otherwise Dewhurst tried to hide behind Perry and essentially claim Perry's successes as his own.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Nhoj on June 23, 2012, 11:54:31 AM
I missed the debate, but judging by his past performances, I think it is a safe bet that Cruz kicked his ass.

You betcha. Especially when it came to immigration. Otherwise Dewhurst tried to hide behind Perry and essentially claim Perry's successes as his own.
That probably isn't such a bad claim seeing as the LT gov has more power than the Governor has.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 23, 2012, 12:24:51 PM
Dewhurst's problem is that July's electorate knows where he differs from Perry. Truth be told, their immigration positions aren't that dissimilar apart from sanctuary cities. They would both oppose an Alabamian solution for the same reason- it would crimp Bob Perry & Co's profit margin.


Title: Cruz-ing to victory?
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 06, 2012, 03:37:04 PM
Saw something on Facebook about Cruz leading 49% to 40%. Could be an internal though.


Title: Re: Cruz-ing to victory?
Post by: Miles on July 06, 2012, 03:43:39 PM
Saw something on Facebook about Cruz leading 49% to 40%. Could be an internal though.

Yes, it was an internal. (http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/07/cruzs-eyebrowraising-poll-128214.html)


Title: Re: Cruz-ing to victory?
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 06, 2012, 03:46:05 PM
Saw something on Facebook about Cruz leading 49% to 40%. Could be an internal though.

It is an internal. Remember that Dewhurst released an "internal" showing that he'd win a majority in Round 1. Didn't work out that way. Cruz should have a GOTV advantage but who knows, they could be tied or Dewhurst could be way ahead. Apparently Leppert isn't so happy about Dewhurst's last-minute attacks in Round 1 and therefore might sit on his hands. Whether his voters do is another story. Maybe Reg has an answer on that.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 11, 2012, 12:58:10 PM
Team Dewhurst is now trolling blogs and scrubbing government websites. Obviously he's still ahead by 20, right?

http://www.redstate.com/erick/2012/07/11/david-dewhursts-media-consultants-attack-ted-cruz-and-redstate-at-redstate/

http://www.redstate.com/erick/2012/07/11/david-dewhurst-campaign-alters-taxpayer-funded-website-to-cover-up-past-support-for-amnesty-what-else-is-he-hiding/


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Miles on July 11, 2012, 02:20:04 PM
Dewhurst responded with his own internal poll. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/11/tx-2012-senate-republican_n_1665701.html)

He's up 50-42.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 11, 2012, 02:31:36 PM
So...dead heat? Great for Cruz.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 11, 2012, 02:58:42 PM
I remember when he released an internal poll showing something like 51-16 in May. There's one more debate next week. What worries me is the early/absentee voting.


Title: Cruz IS cruising!
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 12, 2012, 11:18:44 AM
Cruz is up by nine! http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78441.html (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78441.html)


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 12, 2012, 11:43:04 AM
:D


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 12, 2012, 01:12:39 PM
...and PPP supposedly has Cruz up 49% to 44%. :)


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Brittain33 on July 12, 2012, 01:52:09 PM
Learning a lot about Dewhurst from googling "dewhurst liberal"

http://www.rightsidenews.com/2012051116206/us/politics-and-economics/texas-david-dewhurst-appointed-32-democrat-committee-chairs-and-worked-with-liberal-democrats-to-kill-conservative-legislation.html


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 15, 2012, 03:12:02 PM
DMN will be livestreaming Tuesday's debates. First hour is Cruz v. Dewhurst, second hour Sadler v. Yarbrough.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 16, 2012, 06:42:58 PM
Dewhurst outraises Cruz, but $4 million of that is his own money. Subtract that and Cruz narrowly leads. Not that it matters... this is a ground war and Cruz is about to win it in a big way.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/16/dewhurst-outpaces-cruz-in-texas-race/


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Brittain33 on July 16, 2012, 10:36:18 PM
Would this be the first time a candidate with a Spanish surname defeats a candidate with an Anglo surname in a Republican primary in TX? There may have been a few exceptions where a heavily funded incumbent with the backing of the state power structure held off a Gene Kelly joke candidate, but nothing like this.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 17, 2012, 07:02:07 AM
Would this be the first time a candidate with a Spanish surname defeats a candidate with an Anglo surname in a Republican primary in TX? There may have been a few exceptions where a heavily funded incumbent with the backing of the state power structure held off a Gene Kelly joke candidate, but nothing like this.

Yes.

And this sleazy bastard just pole-vaulted the shark. 60-40 or bust.

http://blog.chron.com/texaspolitics/2012/07/dewhurst-camp-it-was-the-kids-ted/


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: krazen1211 on July 17, 2012, 11:32:10 AM
Would this be the first time a candidate with a Spanish surname defeats a candidate with an Anglo surname in a Republican primary in TX? There may have been a few exceptions where a heavily funded incumbent with the backing of the state power structure held off a Gene Kelly joke candidate, but nothing like this.

Certainly not, Quico Canseco was able to defeat Will Hurt in the TX-23 primary.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Zioneer on July 17, 2012, 11:33:19 AM
Would this be the first time a candidate with a Spanish surname defeats a candidate with an Anglo surname in a Republican primary in TX? There may have been a few exceptions where a heavily funded incumbent with the backing of the state power structure held off a Gene Kelly joke candidate, but nothing like this.

Yes.

And this sleazy bastard just pole-vaulted the shark. 60-40 or bust.

http://blog.chron.com/texaspolitics/2012/07/dewhurst-camp-it-was-the-kids-ted/

Wow, that's one of the most vicious ads I've ever seen. Dewhurst is going all-sleaze or bust.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 17, 2012, 12:00:28 PM
There's a reason Dewhurst is doing this: because he's lost the ground war and is about to get swamped by double digits. Incumbents (or in this case, the quasi-incumbent) never throw the kitchen sink unless they know they're losing. And it's hard to get more kitchen-sink than this without Godwinning.

They're debating tonight at 9 PM Eastern, livestreamed on dallasnews.com (DMN). As usual Cruz- an expert debater- will wipe the floor with Dewhurst.



Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 17, 2012, 09:05:59 PM
Total shocker: Leppert endorses Dewhurst.

http://www.wfaa.com/news/texas-news/leppert-162811666.html


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 17, 2012, 09:11:43 PM
Total shocker: Leppert endorses Dewhurst.

http://www.wfaa.com/news/texas-news/leppert-162811666.html

Too little, too late?


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 17, 2012, 09:19:22 PM
Probably. Dewhurst is on the wrong side of an enthusiasm gap and it will show 2 weeks from tonight.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 20, 2012, 04:25:36 PM
One final debate next week. Plus Cruz swamps Dewhurst in cash.

http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2012/07/the-race-to-the-runoff-cruz-campaign-war-chest-far-outweighs-dewhurst/#5411-1

http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/Cruz-Dewhurst-agree-to-another-debate-3721301.php


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on July 21, 2012, 08:32:11 AM
If this ends up going for Cruz big time, I highly doubt we will see this many debates between an establishment candidate and a tea party challanger again. One maybe, two debates tops.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 21, 2012, 09:59:45 AM
How many TP candidates are SCOTUS appellate attorneys? :P


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on July 21, 2012, 10:07:01 AM
A better question is how many establishment candidates are as uncharismatic and uninspiring as a dead fish? :P


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 21, 2012, 11:16:47 AM
Ironically it was the Legislature, Dewhurst's tool, that doomed him. Had they drawn the map properly the election would have been in February and Cruz would have been lucky to break 20%.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: minionofmidas on July 21, 2012, 12:08:26 PM
Primaries that early are hilarious and purpose-defeating. Which is of course the point of setting them that early.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 22, 2012, 02:14:27 PM
Texas' next Senator.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/us/politics/a-history-for-senate-candidate-ted-cruz-and-supreme-court.html?ref=politics&gwh=51960D7B6799F1C71964E4BF4C912DBF


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: stegosaurus on July 23, 2012, 01:49:53 AM
Cruz has the grassroots operation and a base of devoted activists - which makes him the safe bet in a run-off election that will definitely be decided by organization and enthusiasm.

Bold prediction: Cruz breaks 60%.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 23, 2012, 10:27:46 AM
Better than Perry did against KBH? Believe that when I see it.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 23, 2012, 08:10:23 PM
Weird debate format tonight. Early voting has already started.

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2012-elections/liveblog-cruz-and-dewhurst-third-runoff-debate/


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 24, 2012, 02:59:22 PM
PP: You thought Dewhurst's last ad jumped the shark? Check this out. I'd say more but really, really, don't want an infraction.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnBAeA8AI4U&feature=player_embedded

http://dailycaller.com/2012/07/24/dewhurst-super-pac-ad-cruz-responsible-for-mans-suicide-video/

http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2012/07/analysis-with-cruz-and-dewhurst-the-loathing-is-personal/


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Vote UKIP! on July 24, 2012, 09:28:07 PM
PP: You thought Dewhurst's last ad jumped the shark? Check this out. I'd say more but really, really, don't want an infraction.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnBAeA8AI4U&feature=player_embedded

http://dailycaller.com/2012/07/24/dewhurst-super-pac-ad-cruz-responsible-for-mans-suicide-video/

http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2012/07/analysis-with-cruz-and-dewhurst-the-loathing-is-personal/

Collective eyeroll.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 24, 2012, 09:31:47 PM
He isn't doing that because he's ahead. As they say, the best revenge is served cold. Which is what will happen a week from today.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: CLARENCE 2015! on July 24, 2012, 09:41:02 PM
As a Dewhurst supporter, that is DISGUSTING...


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: stegosaurus on July 24, 2012, 10:04:23 PM
David Dewhurst is a desperate man. He's 66 and suffering from an entitlement complex and a severe late-life crisis. He knew that if he lost this primary that he'd be finished. Now that he knows it to be a near certainty, Dewhurst is entering the violent cycle that entitled politicians enter when they are on the verge of large scale rejection: denial. "Everybody LOOK! My opponent defacto murdered this woman's son!"- especially heinous and distasteful, one can only hope that it makes Dewhurst infamous.

I early voted for Cruz this evening. It looks like a landslide is brewing if Dallas and Tarrant counties are any indication.


Title: Re: TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 25, 2012, 07:49:21 AM
As a Dewhurst supporter, that is DISGUSTING...

But he's the real fighter, right?