Talk Elections

I'm taking requests for alternate elections between 1993 and 2011. I will make maps.

2008 with Bob Rae as Liberal leader.

I take math requests, so for example 2008 with double the Liberal vote, or, 2008 if the Liberals had 10% more vote, or, a 10% swing from the Tories.

Ontario in the "New Acadia" timeline.

1993 with a BQ seat plurality

I want to see a NDP victory in 2011 ! :) Maybe you can subtract 10 points to the tories and give them to the NDP, that would give 40.63%/29.62%.

How about adjusting the vote percentages in each province, so it reflects the national vote? Sort of removing regional variation. Not sure how you'd want to handle the Bloc vote, though.

Canada elections without Quebec (Sucesssful 1995 referendum)

What happens in 2011 if you have the 3% tactical swing from NDP to Lib seen in 2004/6/8?

Will be done first.

Next on my list.
Technical note to self: .3 1 .65 1 .9

Next on my list
Note to self: .51 1 .62 1 1

Will be done.

1997
Lib - 129 - 39.16%
Ref - 60 - 26.83%
NDP - 21 - 14.61%
PC - 15 - 17.53%
IND - 1 - 1.86%


2000
Lib - 136 - 39.60%
CA - 66 - 32.59%
NDP - 13 - 10.96%
PC - 11 - 14.62%


2004
Lib - 114 - 37.69%
CPC - 99 - 36.72%
NDP - 19 - 19.44%
IND - 1 -


2006
CPC - 114 - 40.14%
Lib - 90 - 33.37%
NDP - 29 - 20.79%


2008
CPC - 133 - 43.32%
Lib - 63 - 27.15%
NDP - 36 - 20.31%


2011
CPC - 161 - 47.68%
NDP - 44 - 26.38%
Lib - 27 - 20.55%
Grn - 1 -

I've decided to do 2011 NDP win first as I want to work out pop vote numbers for the 1993 plurality.

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NDP - 160
CPC 109
LIB 36
BQ 2
GP 1

I decided to do smid's request next as it was easy enough to do

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This is my to do list.

Very interesting ! So NDP gets less seats than Tories despite winning more in terms of PV. Bloc of course loses more seats, but liberals gain 2.

1993 with PC and Reform vote added together

L 134
C 101
B 54
N 5
I 1
Maps, excluding Quebec which has no changes, will be coming shortly

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For Earl.

Atlantic.
L - 10 - 31.9%
P - 22 - 43.8%
R - 0 - 10.3%
N - 0 - 10.1%
I - 0 - 3.9%
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Prairies (combined)
R - 32 - 41.7
N - 18 - 19.5
P - 1 - 19.3
L - 3 - 15.3
I - 0 - 4.2
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BC
R - 24 - 36.9
N - 5 - 24.1
P - 3 - 18.8
L - 0 - 13.1
I - 0 - 7.2
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QC
B - 70 - 66.0
L - 4 - 13.3
P - 1 - 16.3
N - 0 - 2.0
I - 0 - 2.4
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ON
P - 40 - 29.9%
L - 38 - 29.9%
R - 12 - 24.6%
N - 9 - 11.3%
I - 0 - 4.3%
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NATIONAL
B - 70 - 18.2%
R - 68 - 20.7%
P - 67 - 24.4%
L - 57 - 21.1%
N - 33 - 11.4%
I - 0 - 4.0%

Up next is a personal request from myself.

Liberals bomb the 93 campaign, Tories do rather well, Reform wins plurality by appealing to moderate populists, Reform and Liberals form post election coalition. Maps soon.

R92
L88
P61
B52
N1
I1

Note, Alberta is all Green, so no map.

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ONTARIO

2000 results, merger, 2004 ridings, same seat no as 2011 election
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Reform with 12 seats in 93
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93, liberals with a quarter of the vote they had in RL
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00 (04 map) liberals quarter
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97 liberals quarter
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Next, maps, using this poll
http://odesi2.scholarsportal.info/webview/index.jsp?object=http://142.150.190.128:80%2Fobj%2FfStudy%2Fcipo_022t_E_1993-09&mode=documentation&v=2&top=yes

and, this poll
http://odesi2.scholarsportal.info/webview/index.jsp?object=http://142.150.190.128:80%2Fobj%2FfStudy%2Fcipo_010t_E_1993-08&mode=documentation&v=2&top=yes

AUGUST
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SEPTEMBER
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Thanks for the maps! Could you also post a map of the actual 1993 elections?

I'm now taking requests going back to 1975

Alt-1979, with Mulroney leading the PCs to a comfortable majority against PET.

Interesting seeing your 1993 BQ plurality maps. FTR, I wanted to see what you would come up with, as I did the same thing a while ago. I'll see if I can upload my maps once I get internet access at my place again.

I am reading this to mean more PC seats in Quebec in particular, and I will do so.

I will also be doing this:

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And I wish to note that from here on in, please request which provinces you want maps for. Numbers for all provinces/regions will be given, but, if you want maps for particular regions, let me know, as that's what is the most work.

NAT
PC - 164 - 44.7%
Lib - 91 - 35.2%
NDP - 27 - 20.0%

Quebec
Lib - 63 - 51%
PC - 12 - 38%

West
PC - 65
NDP - 15
Lib - 0


NDP   Burnaby
PC   Capilano
PC   Cariboo--Chilcotin
NDP   Comox--Powell River
PC   Cowichan--Malahat--The Islands
PC   Esquimalt--Saanich
PC   Fraser Valley East
PC   Fraser Valley West
NDP   Kamloops--Shuswap
PC   Kootenay East--Revelstoke
PC   Kootenay West
PC   Mission--Port Moody
PC   Nanaimo--Alberni
NDP   New Westminster--Coquitlam
PC   North Vancouver--Burnaby
PC   Okanagan North
PC   Okanagan--Similkameen
PC   Prince George--Bulkley Valley
PC   Prince George--Peace River
PC   Richmond--South Delta
NDP   Skeena
PC   Surrey--White Rock--North Delta
PC   Vancouver Centre
NDP   Vancouver East
NDP   Vancouver Kingsway
PC   Vancouver Quadra
PC   Vancouver South
PC   Victoria


PC   Athabasca
PC   Bow River
PC   Calgary Centre
PC   Calgary East
PC   Calgary North
PC   Calgary South
PC   Calgary West
PC   Crowfoot
PC   Edmonton East
PC   Edmonton North
PC   Edmonton South
PC   Edmonton West
PC   Edmonton--Strathcona
PC   Lethbridge--Foothills
PC   Medicine Hat
PC   Peace River
PC   Pembina
PC   Red Deer
PC   Vegreville
PC   Wetaskiwin
PC   Yellowhead


PC   Assiniboia
NDP   Humboldt--Lake Centre
PC   Kindersley--Lloydminster
PC   Mackenzie
PC   Moose Jaw
PC   Prince Albert
PC   Qu'Appelle--Moose Mountain
NDP   Regina East
NDP   Regina West
PC   Saskatoon East
PC   Saskatoon West
PC   Swift Current--Maple Creek
PC   The Battlefords--Meadow Lake
NDP   Yorkton--Melville


PC   Brandon--Souris
NDP   Churchill
PC   Dauphin--Swan River
PC   Lisgar
PC   Portage--Marquette
PC   Provencher
PC   Selkirk--Interlake
PC   St. Boniface
NDP   Winnipeg North
NDP   Winnipeg North Centre
PC   Winnipeg--Assiniboine
NDP   Winnipeg--Birds Hill
PC   Winnipeg--Fort Garry
PC   Winnipeg--St. James


LIB   Algoma
NDP   Beaches
PC   Brampton--Georgetown
NDP   Brant
NDP   Broadview--Greenwood
PC   Bruce--Grey
PC   Burlington
PC   Cambridge
LIB   Cochrane--Superior
LIB   Davenport
PC   Don Valley East
PC   Don Valley West
PC   Durham--Northumberland
LIB   Eglinton--Lawrence
PC   Elgin
PC   Erie
PC   Essex--Kent
NDP   Essex--Windsor
PC   Etobicoke Centre
LIB   Etobicoke North
PC   Etobicoke--Lakeshore
LIB   Glengarry--Prescott--Russell
PC   Grey--Simcoe
PC   Guelph
PC   Haldimand--Norfolk
PC   Halton
LIB   Hamilton East
NDP   Hamilton Mountain
PC   Hamilton West
PC   Hamilton--Wentworth
PC   Hastings--Frontenac--Lennox and Addington
PC   Huron--Bruce
NDP   Kenora--Rainy River
PC   Kent
PC   Kingston and the Islands
PC   Kitchener
PC   Lambton--Middlesex
PC   Lanark--Renfrew--Carleton
PC   Leeds--Grenville
PC   Lincoln
PC   London East
PC   London West
PC   London--Middlesex
PC   Mississauga North
PC   Mississauga South
PC   Nepean--Carleton
PC   Niagara Falls
NDP   Nickel Belt
PC   Nipissing
PC   Northumberland
PC   Ontario
NDP   Oshawa
PC   Ottawa Centre
PC   Ottawa West
LIB   Ottawa--Carleton
LIB   Ottawa--Vanier
PC   Oxford
PC   Parkdale--High Park
PC   Parry Sound--Muskoka
PC   Perth
PC   Peterborough
PC   Prince Edward--Hastings
LIB   Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke
PC   Rosedale
PC   Sarnia--Lambton
LIB   Sault Ste. Marie
PC   Scarborough Centre
PC   Scarborough East
PC   Scarborough West
PC   Simcoe North
PC   Simcoe South
LIB   Spadina
PC   St. Catharines
PC   St. Paul's
PC   Stormont--Dundas
LIB   Sudbury
NDP   Thunder Bay--Atikokan
NDP   Thunder Bay--Nipigon
PC   Timiskaming
LIB   Timmins--Chapleau
LIB   Trinity
PC   Victoria--Haliburton
PC   Waterloo
PC   Welland
PC   Wellington--Dufferin--Simcoe
PC   Willowdale
LIB   Windsor West
LIB   Windsor--Walkerville
LIB   York Centre
LIB   York East
PC   York North
LIB   York South--Weston
LIB   York West
PC   York--Peel
PC   York--Scarborough


LIB   Abitibi
LIB   Argenteuil--Papineau
LIB   Beauce
LIB   Beauharnois--Salaberry
PC   Bellechasse
PC   Berthier--Maskinongé--Lanaudière
LIB   Blainville--Deux-Montagnes
LIB   Bonaventure--Îles-de-la-Madeleine
LIB   Bourassa
LIB   Chambly
LIB   Champlain
LIB   Charlesbourg
LIB   Charlevoix
LIB   Châteauguay
LIB   Chicoutimi
LIB   Dollard
LIB   Drummond
LIB   Duvernay
PC   Frontenac
LIB   Gamelin
PC   Gaspé
LIB   Gatineau
LIB   Hochelaga--Maisonneuve
LIB   Hull--Aylmer
PC   Joliette
LIB   Jonquière
PC   Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
LIB   Labelle
PC   Lachine
LIB   Lac-Saint-Jean
LIB   Langelier
LIB   LaPrairie
LIB   LaSalle
LIB   Laurier
LIB   Laval
LIB   Laval-des-Rapides
LIB   Lévis
LIB   Longueuil
LIB   Lotbinière
LIB   Louis-Hébert
PC   Manicouagan
LIB   Matapédia--Matane
PC   Mégantic--Compton--Stanstead
LIB   Mercier
PC   Missisquoi
LIB   Montmorency--Orléans
LIB   Mount Royal
LIB   Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine East
LIB   Outremont
LIB   Papineau
LIB   Pontiac--Gatineau--Labelle
LIB   Portneuf
LIB   Québec-Est
LIB   Richelieu
LIB   Richmond--Wolfe
PC   Rimouski--Témiscouata
PC   Roberval
LIB   Rosemont
LIB   Saint-Denis
LIB   Saint-Henri--Westmount
LIB   Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot
LIB   Saint-Jacques
LIB   Saint-Jean
LIB   Saint-Léonard--Anjou
LIB   Saint-Marie
LIB   Saint-Maurice
LIB   Saint-Michel--Ahuntsic
LIB   Shefford
LIB   Sherbrooke
LIB   Témiscamingue
LIB   Terrebonne
LIB   Trois-Rivières
LIB   Vaudreuil
LIB   Verchères
LIB   Verdun--Saint-Paul


PC   Carleton--Charlotte
PC   Fundy--Royal
LIB   Gloucester
LIB   Madawaska--Victoria
PC   Moncton
PC   Northumberland--Miramichi
LIB   Restigouche
PC   Saint John
LIB   Westmorland--Kent
PC   York--Sunbury


PC   Annapolis Valley--Hants
PC   Cape Breton Highlands--Canso
NDP   Cape Breton--East Richmond
PC   Cape Breton--The Sydneys
PC   Central Nova
PC   Cumberland--Colchester
PC   Dartmouth--Halifax East
PC   Halifax
PC   Halifax West
PC   South Shore
PC   South West Nova


PC   Cardigan
PC   Egmont
PC   Hillsborough
PC   Malpeque


PC   Bonavista--Trinity--Conception
LIB   Burin--St. George's
LIB   Gander--Twillingate
LIB   Grand Falls--White Bay--Labrador
NDP   Humber--Port au Port--St. Barbe
PC   St. John's East
PC   St. John's West

1997 BQ plurality.

Based on this
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And this
http://www.pollingreport.ca/nslbs.php?dateToStart=2004-05-27&dateToEnd=2004-06-28&S_ID=-1&catID=2&max=60

I will be doing an alt-hist if Brison had won the PC leadership in 2003.

Awesomeness, epic win sauce, etc. I expect that Harper will find Brison much easier to work with than MacKay, since they're much closer ideologically. I think some of his harsh attacks on MacKay might have backfired, at least from the sources I've read.

A few other requests, in no particular order.

February '68: Bob Stanfield doesn't back down and forces a dissolution on that money vote. Pearson leads the Grits into that campaign.

Diefenbaker majority '62: Paul Sauve lives and keeps the UN machine humming on Dief's behalf.

Harper majority '08: Without the Quebec gaffes, and with Bob Rae as Liberal leader.

The Brison story presumes a few things (which is why I'm not done yet) one of them is that the Merger never happens, that's the core, the other is that Harper never becomes CA leader, and some of the DRCers would stick with the PC Party.

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1921, with the Progressives up 10% (this includes all Progressive-type candidates. UFA, UFO, Labour, etc)

From C:
Elgin East
Elgin West
Fort William and Rainy River
Grey North
Wentworth


From L:
Wellington South

L-117
P-73
C-44
I-3

And 1921 with the Tories up by 10%

From L:
Oxford North
Ontario South
Hants
Colchester
Skeena
Fraser Valley



From P:
Port Arthur and Kenora
Ontario North
Muskoka
Lennox and Addington
Frontenac
Dundas
Dufferin
Brant
Portage la Prairie
Calgary West



From I:
Victoria

L-112
C-66
P-55
I-2

1935: Rec + 10%
no changes


1945: Bloc + 10%
Gain: Chicoutimi

This can't be right, unless you're not using UNS:

For example-

MATAPÉDIA--MATANE (1935/10/14)
Candidate   Party   Occupation   Votes   Votes (%)   Elected
LAPOINTE, Arthur-Joseph   Lib   station master    4,987    34.88%    
LARUE, Joseph-Ernest-Henri   Cons.   notary    4,834    33.81%    
DIONNE, Georges-Léonidas   Rec   notary    4,476    31.31%    

10% as a ratio.

4,476 + 447.6 = 4,923.6 IE 4,924 which is less than 4,987 the winning number.

1945 CCF, getting towards the 1943 poll, showing them on top.
Math:
West: +25%
ON, QC, AT: +125%

Gains in QC, AT:
none

Alberta:
none

Manitoba:
Marquette - from Liberals
Springfield - from L

British Columbia:
Kamloops - From PC
Nanimo - From PC
New Westminster - fr L
Vancouver Centre - L
Vancouver Burrard - PC
Victoria - L
Yale - PC

Saskatchewan
Lake Centre - PC
Melville - L


I'm also pegging them at a win in the Yukon, from the Tories


Subtotal (9 changed provinces, plus an unchanged Ontario)
Liberal - 112
PC - 60
CCF - 40
Social Credit - 13
Others - 20

From Liberals:
Algoma West
Cochrane
Fort William
Hamilton East
Hamilton West
Kenora-Rainy River
Nipissing
Port Arthur
Tamiskaming


From Tories:
Greenwood
Waterloo South
Wentworth
York South
York West



L - 103
PC - 55
CCF - 54
SC - 13
Oth - 20


Disappointing. The CCF would have come a "close second" in at least a dozen Ontario seats.

I'm going to redo the above for Ontario to give the CCF an even greater boost, due to some complicated maths.

Broadview - PC
Danforth - PC
Davenport - PC
Essex West - Lib
High Park - PC
Ontario - Lib
Parkdale - PC
Parry Sound - Lib
Rosedale - PC
St.Pauls - PC
Trinity - PC
Welland - Lib
York East - PC


Lib - 99
CCF - 67
PC - 46
SC - 13
Oth - 20

Voting patterns make it difficult to get a CCF government.

Also 1945. I found a poll showing the Bloc at 24%, so I'm doubling the Bloc numbers:

Bellechasse - Lib
Cartier - Communist (yes, this is the riding the Communists won)
Chicoutimi - Ind
Mercier - Lib
Richmond-Wolfe - Lib
Shefford - Lib
St.James - Lib
Stanstead - PC