Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on December 06, 2011, 10:23:01 AM



Title: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 06, 2011, 10:23:01 AM
Later today, Gallup will begin releasing a daily tracking poll of the GOP presidential race based on a five-day rolling average of at least 1,000 registered Republican voters.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/12/06/tracking_the_republicans.html


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on December 06, 2011, 01:37:46 PM
1st release:

()

http://www.gallup.com/poll/151355/Gingrich-Romney-Among-GOP-Voters-Nationwide.aspx


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bull Moose Base on December 06, 2011, 01:45:28 PM
Looks like when a guy getting 22% of the vote drops out, Perry also loses 4 points.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on December 06, 2011, 01:56:53 PM
Look at Mitt! Staying all constant and unmoving. Way to go Mitt!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on December 06, 2011, 02:51:16 PM
Mitt "Catch 22" Romney.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Badger on December 07, 2011, 02:08:45 PM
Today's Update:


Gingrich 36% (-1)

Romney 23% (+1)

Paul 9% (+1)

Perry 6% (-1)

Bachmann 6%

Santorum 3%

Other 3%

Huntsman 1%


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on December 08, 2011, 09:00:45 PM
Gingrich 34% (-2)
Romney 25% (+2)
Paul 10% (+1)
Bachmann 7% (+1)
Perry 5% (-1)
Santorum 2% (-1)
Huntsman 1% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on December 08, 2011, 09:07:46 PM
Gingrich's lead has gone from 15 to 9 in just a few days. Trend or noise?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Thomas D on December 08, 2011, 09:14:49 PM
Gingrich's lead has gone from 15 to 9 in just a few days. Trend or noise?

Let's see if it's down to 6 or so on Monday.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on December 09, 2011, 06:46:10 PM
Newt surge.

Gingrich 37% (+3)
Romney 23% (-2)
Paul 9% (-1)
Bachmann 6% (-1)
Perry 6% (+1)
Santorum 2% (nc)
Huntsman 1% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: memphis on December 09, 2011, 07:03:44 PM
Once Bachmann and Perry drop out after losses in early states, their supporters are going over to Gingrich. Fair or not, this race is going to be between Moderates backing Romney and conservatives backing Gingrich very quickly. I think it's pretty clear which wing rules the GOP.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: The Vorlon on December 09, 2011, 07:52:11 PM

5 day rolling average, and a subset of their presidential approval tracking poll.

Gonna be a whole lot of noise in that one...

Also, the sample universe is Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote, so I ~~suspect~~ the actual primary voters who turn out to vote may look a LOT different than this sample.

Gingrich has a lot more intensity, buy Romney has a ton more actual organization... we see how those play out.



Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on December 10, 2011, 02:39:35 PM
Gingrich 35% (-2)
Romney 23% (nc)
Paul 9% (nc)
Bachmann 6% (nc)
Perry 6% (nc)
Santorum 3% (+1)
Huntsman 2% (+1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on December 12, 2011, 05:27:26 PM
Pretty stable.

Gingrich 33%
Romney 23%
Paul 8%
Bachmann 6%
Perry 6%
Santorum 3%
Huntsman 2%


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: redcommander on December 12, 2011, 05:41:42 PM
Pretty stable.

Gingrich 33%
Romney 23%
Paul 8%
Bachmann 6%
Perry 6%
Santorum 3%
Huntsman 2%

Looks like Gingrich is starting to deflate.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on December 12, 2011, 07:00:43 PM
Pretty stable.

Gingrich 33%
Romney 23%
Paul 8%
Bachmann 6%
Perry 6%
Santorum 3%
Huntsman 2%

Looks like Gingrich is starting to deflate.
He'll probably get a boost once Perry/Bachmann/Santorum drop out, as they inevitably will. Same with Romney and Huntsman. I'm thinking Paul's going to be a Huckabee-esque side-thorn up until the convention.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Thomas D on December 12, 2011, 07:05:43 PM
Mitt's numbers so far in this thread:


22,21,22,23,25,23,23,23.



Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: redcommander on December 12, 2011, 07:08:36 PM
Mitt's numbers so far in this thread:


22,21,22,23,25,23,23,23.



McCain didn't exactly start to consolidate support until after New Hampshire.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on December 12, 2011, 08:27:46 PM
Mitt's numbers so far in this thread:


22,21,22,23,25,23,23,23.



McCain didn't exactly start to consolidate support until after New Hampshire.

Either you're trolling or you have no understanding of the dynamics of the 2008 race.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on December 13, 2011, 01:40:02 PM
Gingrich 31% (-2)
Romney 22% (-1)
Paul 8%
Perry 7% (+1)
Bachmann 6%
Santorum 4% (+1)
Huntsman 2%


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cavalcade on December 13, 2011, 02:00:39 PM
Gingrich 31% (-2)
Romney 22% (-1)
Paul 8%
Perry 7% (+1)
Bachmann 6%
Santorum 4% (+1)
Huntsman 2%

In the last week Newt is down 6, Santorum is up 1, and Huntsman is up 1.  Everyone else is flat.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 13, 2011, 02:02:25 PM
Looks like gravity is exerting its influence again.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on December 14, 2011, 02:56:56 PM
Santorumentum? :P

Gingrich 31% (nc)
Romney 23% (+1)
Paul 9% (+1)
Bachmann 6% (nc)
Perry 6% (-1)
Santorum 4% (+1)
Huntsman 2% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Badger on December 14, 2011, 03:12:56 PM
Gingrich 31% (-2)
Romney 22% (-1)
Paul 8%
Perry 7% (+1)
Bachmann 6%
Santorum 4% (+1)
Huntsman 2%

In the last week Newt is down 6, Santorum is up 1, and Huntsman is up 1.  Everyone else is flat.

That's not statistical noise; Newt is wounded, and both the media and his rivals are scenting blood.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on December 15, 2011, 01:15:36 PM
Gingrich 29% (-2)
Romney 24% (+1)
Paul 10% (+1)
Bachmann 7% (+1)
Perry 5% (-1)
Santorum 4% (nc)
Huntsman 2% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Badger on December 15, 2011, 01:25:08 PM
Newt down 8 points in about as many days. And Romney seems to be benefiting no less than any other candidate.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on December 15, 2011, 04:48:02 PM
Not good.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on December 17, 2011, 01:58:32 PM
Not much change today, but Gingrich is down another point.

Gingrich 28% (-1)
Romney 24% (nc)
Paul 10% (nc)
Bachmann 8% (+1)
Perry 6% (+1)
Santorum 4% (nc)
Huntsman 2% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on December 17, 2011, 05:20:13 PM
LOL at the people who were literally saying one week ago that Romney was pretty much done.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on December 18, 2011, 02:18:38 PM
Newt Gingrich 28% (nc)
Mitt Romney 24% (nc)
Ron Paul 10% (nc)
Rick Perry 7% (+1)
Michele Bachmann 6% (-2)
Rick Santorum 4% (nc)
Jon Huntsman 2% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on December 18, 2011, 02:24:17 PM
Newt Gingrich 28% (nc)
Mitt Romney 24% (nc)
Ron Paul 10% (nc)
Rick Perry 7% (+1)
Michele Bachmann 6% (-2)
Rick Santorum 4% (nc)
Jon Huntsman 2% (nc)


Hmmmm, I have Gallup open now, and it says Bachmann is on 7% (down 1), and Perry is on 6% (no change). But the others are the same.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P! on December 18, 2011, 03:04:00 PM
LOL at the people who were literally saying one week ago that Romney was pretty much done.

He's still grievously wounded, its just that Gingrich is the only media-approved candidate to oppose him presently and he's been pounded to hell and back by Ron Paul's advertisements. As I think we'll see in New Hampshire, he's in very bad shape and could very well fall apart if the wrong person wins Iowa.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on December 19, 2011, 01:10:17 PM
Gingrich: 26% (-2)
Romney: 24% (nc)
Paul: 11% (+1)
Perry: 7% (+1)
Bachmann: 7% (nc)
Santorum: 4% (nc)
Huntsman: 2% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on December 19, 2011, 01:13:01 PM
()

Mitt's numbers are flatter than Kim Jong-Il's EKG reading.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 19, 2011, 01:32:22 PM
The Republican primary electorate are fycking hilarious.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on December 19, 2011, 03:58:29 PM
What about these numbers still doesn't indicated Romney is finished?  Maybe if the Gingrich numbers shifted to Romney. It just means someone else might will beat him.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: M on December 19, 2011, 04:55:58 PM
What about these numbers still doesn't indicated Romney is finished?  Maybe if the Gingrich numbers shifted to Romney. It just means someone else might will beat him.

Eh? The numbers don't indicate that Romney is dominating, as GOP frontrunners from 1952-2004, excepting 1964, tended to do by this point.

They do not, however, indicate that he is finished. A close second in national polls, before any state has yet voted, is a lot better than certain other candidates at this point who went on to win the nomination.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on December 19, 2011, 05:13:08 PM
What an epic crash.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on December 20, 2011, 02:31:36 PM
Gingrich 25% (-1)
Romney 23% (-1)
Paul 12% (+1)
Perry 8% (+1)
Bachmann 6% (-1)
Santorum 4% (nc)
Huntsman 2% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Yelnoc on December 22, 2011, 01:33:31 PM
Gingrich 27%
Romney 21%
Paul 12%
Perry 7%
Bachmann 6%
Santorum 4%
Huntsman 1%


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on December 22, 2011, 01:39:11 PM
Yikes. Mittens had a rough sample last night I guess.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on December 22, 2011, 01:42:15 PM
Yikes. Mittens had a rough sample last night I guess.

Has there been a notable shift from attacking Gingrich to attacking Romney among the not-Romneys and their ads? That could be the reason.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on December 22, 2011, 04:38:46 PM
Undecided is technically in 2nd place. There's plenty of room for a surge.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on December 23, 2011, 02:34:51 PM
Paul continues to rise as yesterday's sample gets counteracted a bit.

Gingrich 26% (-1)
Romney 22% (+1)
Paul 13% (+1)
Perry 8% (+1)
Bachmann 6% (nc)
Santorum 3% (-1)
Huntsman 1% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TheGlobalizer on December 24, 2011, 01:03:41 PM
Steady movement up from Paul.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on December 26, 2011, 05:05:05 PM
Not much movement here.

Gingrich 26% (nc)
Romney 23% (+1)
Paul 12% (-1)
Perry 8% (nc)
Bachmann 6% (nc)
Santorum 3% (nc)
Huntsman 1% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TheGlobalizer on December 27, 2011, 02:15:59 PM
Gingrich 25% (-1)
Romney 24% (+1)
Paul 11% (-1)
Perry 8% (nc)
Bachmann 6% (nc)
Santorum 3% (nc)
Huntsman 2% (+1)

Dammit, I jinxed Ron.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on December 27, 2011, 02:52:18 PM
A lot is going to have to happen for Romney to NOT win the nomination.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TheGlobalizer on December 27, 2011, 04:13:49 PM
A lot is going to have to happen for Romney to NOT win the nomination.

FWIW, I don't think national primary polls mean much.  Lagging indicator.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on December 28, 2011, 03:12:43 PM
All tied up. Bachmann also tied for her lowest in the tracking poll so far, with Santorum back up to his highest.

Gingrich 25% (nc)
Romney 25% (+1)
Paul 11% (nc)
Perry 8% (nc)
Bachmann 5% (-1)
Santorum 4% (+1)
Huntsman 1% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TheGlobalizer on December 28, 2011, 06:16:26 PM

FYI, should be (-1).


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Rowan on December 29, 2011, 01:19:29 PM
ROMNEY SURGE:

Romney: 27%(+2)
Gingrich: 23%(-2)
No one else matters


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: cavalcade on December 29, 2011, 02:47:59 PM
As with Paul, no sign of national Santmentum.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on December 29, 2011, 02:49:00 PM
ROMNEY SURGE:

Romney: 27%(+2)
Gingrich: 23%(-2)
No one else matters

National polls inherently don't matter, so you might as well post the whole thing.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on December 29, 2011, 02:49:29 PM
As with Paul, no sign of national Santmentum.
It will come after Iowa.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TheGlobalizer on December 29, 2011, 02:53:51 PM
ROMNEY SURGE:

Romney: 27%(+2)
Gingrich: 23%(-2)
No one else matters

National polls inherently don't matter, so you might as well post the whole thing.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on December 29, 2011, 04:20:40 PM

Can't... decide... which... Santorum... joke... to... make...


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on January 02, 2012, 03:22:08 AM
Latest:

Romney 26% (-1)
Gingrich 24% (+1)
Paul 11% (nc)
Perry 7% (-1)
Bachmann 5% (nc)
Santorum 5% (+1)
Huntsman 2% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on January 02, 2012, 04:49:36 PM
Gingrich is now officially Rudy G.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 02, 2012, 04:51:03 PM
Latest:

Romney 26% (-1)
Gingrich 24% (+1)
Paul 11% (nc)
Perry 7% (-1)
Bachmann 5% (nc)
Santorum 5% (+1)
Huntsman 2% (nc)

With a strong finish tomorrow night and maybe even a drop out or two, Santorum should pass Bachmann and Perry and might even match Paul.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on January 02, 2012, 04:52:29 PM
If Santorum wins Iowa, he will be in double digits nationally on the Bachmann dropout alone.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on January 03, 2012, 01:32:55 PM
First tracking poll of the new year:

Romney 24% (-2)
Gingrich 23% (-1)
Paul 13% (+2)
Perry 7% (nc)
Santorum 6% (+1)
Bachmann 5% (nc)
Huntsman (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on January 04, 2012, 04:49:18 PM
Gallup's website is down now, but I checked earlier today and they had Santorum at 8%.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TheGlobalizer on January 04, 2012, 07:06:30 PM
Gallup's website is down now, but I checked earlier today and they had Santorum at 8%.

National Santorum surge, dispatch clean-up crews immediately!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on January 04, 2012, 07:22:52 PM
Romney: 26% (+2)
Gingrich: 22% (-1)
Paul: 13% (nc)
Santorum: 8% (+2)
Perry: 6% (-1)
Bachmann: 5% (nc)
Huntsman: 2% (nc)
Other: 2% (-1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 04, 2012, 07:49:49 PM
These numbers are presumably almost all from before Santorum won last night.

Too bad it looks like Romney is surging as well. :(


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 05, 2012, 01:03:32 PM
Romney: 27% (+1)
Gingrich: 19% (-3)
Paul: 13% (nc)
Santorum: 11% (+3)
Perry: 6% (nc)
Huntsman: 2% (nc)
Other: 6% (+4)

Remember, there's still a low percentage Santorum-sample in there from Monday, so he should at least be at 15% tomorrow.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on January 05, 2012, 01:28:06 PM
Romney: 27% (+1)
Gingrich: 19% (-3)
Paul: 13% (nc)
Santorum: 11% (+3)
Perry: 6% (nc)
Huntsman: 2% (nc)
Other: 6% (+4)

Remember, there's still a low percentage Santorum-sample in there from Monday, so he should at least be at 15% tomorrow.

More than just Monday - it's a five-day rolling average. This poll is last Wednesday and Thursday plus this Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. So only one day of post-Iowa polling data.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 05, 2012, 01:59:13 PM
Romney: 27% (+1)
Gingrich: 19% (-3)
Paul: 13% (nc)
Santorum: 11% (+3)
Perry: 6% (nc)
Huntsman: 2% (nc)
Other: 6% (+4)

Remember, there's still a low percentage Santorum-sample in there from Monday, so he should at least be at 15% tomorrow.

More than just Monday - it's a five-day rolling average. This poll is last Wednesday and Thursday plus this Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. So only one day of post-Iowa polling data.

()


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on January 06, 2012, 01:40:02 AM
I'd expect Santorum and Gingrich to switch places in another 3 days or so.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: LastVoter on January 06, 2012, 03:03:45 AM
Seems like Romney is rising too, could this be over?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on January 06, 2012, 03:11:19 AM
Seems like Romney is rising too, could this be over?

He was just as high last week.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on January 06, 2012, 02:11:52 PM
Romney 27% (nc)
Gingrich 19% (nc)
Santorum 15% (+4)
Paul 12% (-1)
Perry 6% (nc)
Huntsman 2% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on January 06, 2012, 02:37:37 PM
Looks like they'll end up with numbers similar to Rasmussen.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on January 07, 2012, 03:45:11 PM
The poll now corresponds to this last week (Monday-Friday). Romney's at 29%. It's increasingly likely that he gets the nomination. Gingrich and Santorum are almost tied.

Romney 29% (+2)
Gingrich 17% (-1)
Santorum 16% (+1)
Paul 12% (-1)
Perry 6% (nc)
Huntsman 1% (-1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on January 08, 2012, 01:57:53 PM
31% Romney (+2)
18% Santorum (+2)
16% Gingrich (-1)
13% Paul (+1)
  6% Perry (nc)
  1% Huntsman (nc)
  3% Others (-2)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on January 08, 2012, 02:15:19 PM
Looks like Gingrich's brief "coalition" consisted of both establishment voters and conservative voters. Now that he's collapsed nationally, they are splitting off to both Santorum and Romney.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 08, 2012, 02:25:22 PM
Rick!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on January 08, 2012, 06:00:44 PM
If Gingrich and Perry dropped out, I wonder what the numbers would be. I suspect that Santorum would get more but Romney would still get enough to keep the lead by a few points


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 08, 2012, 06:12:18 PM
Who are these people still supporting Perry?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 08, 2012, 06:52:09 PM

People afflicted with Alzheimer, dyslexia and other assorted learning difficulties.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on January 09, 2012, 02:23:42 AM

People afflicted with Alzheimer, dyslexia and other assorted learning difficulties.

Also all the men he's slept with.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on January 09, 2012, 02:27:17 AM
Damn, Huntsman can't catch a break.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 09, 2012, 02:40:03 PM
Romney 30% (-1)
Santorum 18% (nc)
Gingrich 17% (+1)
Paul 13% (nc)
Perry 6% (nc)
Other 2% (-1)
Huntsman 1% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on January 12, 2012, 02:10:35 PM
We've skipped two days in here, but here's today (+/- is from Gallup's numbers yesterday)

Romney 34% (+3)
Santorum 15% (nc)
Gingrich 14% (-2)
Paul 13% (nc)
Perry 5% (-1)
Huntsman 2% (nc)
Other 2% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on January 12, 2012, 02:12:43 PM
()


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on January 12, 2012, 02:34:08 PM
Not much of a reason to care about this now. It's all about SC. If Romney wins there, they might as well give up on polling the race nationally.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on January 13, 2012, 04:05:00 PM
Romney 34% (nc)
Gingrich 15% (+1)
Santorum 14% (-1)
Paul 12% (-1)
Perry 5% (nc)
Huntsman 2% (nc)
Other 2% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on January 13, 2012, 04:29:42 PM
The media's coronation of Romney seems to be finally paying dividends. Ugh. Not that it matters *cough* South Carolina *cough*.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on January 14, 2012, 07:00:16 PM
This primary is just about over. Romney is now beating Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry combined.

Romney 35% (+1)
Santorum 14% (-1)
Paul 13% (+1)
Gingrich 13% (-2)
Perry 5% (nc)
Huntsman 3% (+1)
Other 2% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on January 14, 2012, 07:26:07 PM
The media's coronation of Romney seems to be finally paying dividends. Ugh. Not that it matters *cough* South Carolina *cough*.

I think it more Gingrich slumping than Romney surging.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on January 15, 2012, 03:42:06 PM
Romney 37% (+2)
Santorum 14% (nc)
Gingrich 13% (nc)
Paul 12% (-1)
Perry 5% (nc)
Huntsman 3% (nc)
Other 1% (-1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on January 15, 2012, 04:05:52 PM
Yeah, Romney's probably leading pretty much everywhere now. Maybe a couple Southern states, but that's it.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 15, 2012, 04:07:26 PM
Romney will break 40% soon, and after SC probably breaks 50. D:


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on January 15, 2012, 04:20:42 PM
Romney will break 40% soon, and after SC probably breaks 50. D:
Impossible. Don't you remember? 75% of Republicans despise and distrust Mitt. No way will he ever get that high.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 15, 2012, 04:27:45 PM
Romney will break 40% soon, and after SC probably breaks 50. D:
Impossible. Don't you remember? 75% of Republicans despise and distrust Mitt. No way will he ever get that high.

They don't like him, dude. It's ok to admit it. Hell, I have to admit that a lot of people within the PA GOP dislike one of their own (Santorum).

Romney's boost can be attributed to a feeling of inevitability now. We're being bombarded with stories about how the GOP is/has to unite behind the "clear frontrunner" now. Romney is naturally going to benefit.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on January 15, 2012, 04:44:38 PM
Romney will break 40% soon, and after SC probably breaks 50. D:
Impossible. Don't you remember? 75% of Republicans despise and distrust Mitt. No way will he ever get that high.

They don't like him, dude. It's ok to admit it. Hell, I have to admit that a lot of people within the PA GOP dislike one of their own (Santorum).

Romney's boost can be attributed to a feeling of inevitability now. We're being bombarded with stories about how the GOP is/has to unite behind the "clear frontrunner" now. Romney is naturally going to benefit.
One of the worst myths in this cycle is that the GOP absolutely despises Mitt. A few do, yes, but a majority of GOP voters are fine with him being the nominee. His favorable are better than most candidates left in the race. People who really dislike and despise him aren't going to flock to him after he won two states - they'll keep supporting an alternative until he's the only one left.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on January 15, 2012, 04:49:18 PM
I think you're right. ^^^ (tmth)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 15, 2012, 04:56:42 PM
Romney will break 40% soon, and after SC probably breaks 50. D:
Impossible. Don't you remember? 75% of Republicans despise and distrust Mitt. No way will he ever get that high.

They don't like him, dude. It's ok to admit it. Hell, I have to admit that a lot of people within the PA GOP dislike one of their own (Santorum).

Romney's boost can be attributed to a feeling of inevitability now. We're being bombarded with stories about how the GOP is/has to unite behind the "clear frontrunner" now. Romney is naturally going to benefit.
One of the worst myths in this cycle is that the GOP absolutely despises Mitt. A few do, yes, but a majority of GOP voters are fine with him being the nominee. His favorable are better than most candidates left in the race. People who really dislike and despise him aren't going to flock to him after he won two states - they'll keep supporting an alternative until he's the only one left.

Despise? No. But I think it's fair to say that a lot of Republicans dislike him. At this point, it's "Let's unite behind the guy early and focus on beating Obama. Plus, he's supposedly the most electable."


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on January 15, 2012, 05:01:52 PM
Romney will break 40% soon, and after SC probably breaks 50. D:
Impossible. Don't you remember? 75% of Republicans despise and distrust Mitt. No way will he ever get that high.

They don't like him, dude. It's ok to admit it. Hell, I have to admit that a lot of people within the PA GOP dislike one of their own (Santorum).

Romney's boost can be attributed to a feeling of inevitability now. We're being bombarded with stories about how the GOP is/has to unite behind the "clear frontrunner" now. Romney is naturally going to benefit.
One of the worst myths in this cycle is that the GOP absolutely despises Mitt. A few do, yes, but a majority of GOP voters are fine with him being the nominee. His favorable are better than most candidates left in the race. People who really dislike and despise him aren't going to flock to him after he won two states - they'll keep supporting an alternative until he's the only one left.

Despise? No. But I think it's fair to say that a lot of Republicans dislike him. At this point, it's "Let's unite behind the guy early and focus on beating Obama. Plus, he's supposedly the most electable."
Fair enough. :) A lot of Republicans also dislike Santorum, Gingrich, Huntsman, Paul, and Perry. It's a race to the bottom!

Mitt Romney is going to win the nomination because a majority of Republicans (and I believe they're right here) believe Romney is our best chance to beat Obama, and because he's the most knowledgeable and experienced in terms of the economy. They may not love his social issues, but that's not their top concern right now.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: argentarius on January 15, 2012, 05:06:15 PM
37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on January 15, 2012, 05:42:46 PM
37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.
Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

;) :P


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: argentarius on January 15, 2012, 05:53:37 PM
37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.
Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

;) :P
Well it was the magic number in NH for me too, it's just that in the last GE in Ireland and Britain the leading party got an unconvincing victory with 36%, and that I got the feeling in both of those that 37% would have made a significant difference.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 15, 2012, 05:56:58 PM
37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.
Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

;) :P
Well it was the magic number in NH for me too, it's just that in the last GE in Ireland and Britain the leading party got an unconvincing victory with 36%, and that I got the feeling in both of those that 37% would have made a significant difference.

Hope you're being sarcastic. ;)

(Towards Cameron and Enda, before anyone says anything.)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on January 15, 2012, 05:59:34 PM
37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.
Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

;) :P
Well it was the magic number in NH for me too, it's just that in the last GE in Ireland and Britain the leading party got an unconvincing victory with 36%, and that I got the feeling in both of those that 37% would have made a significant difference.

The idea that Fine Gael's victory was "unconvincing" is one I haven't heard before.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: argentarius on January 15, 2012, 06:06:18 PM
37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.
Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

;) :P
Well it was the magic number in NH for me too, it's just that in the last GE in Ireland and Britain the leading party got an unconvincing victory with 36%, and that I got the feeling in both of those that 37% would have made a significant difference.

The idea that Fine Gael's victory was "unconvincing" is one I haven't heard before.
In fairness there was a lot of hype about an overall majority, and the fact that FG couldn't get above what FF got for an age said to me that the people don't trust FG. And similarly with Romney getting up to 37 I finally get the feeling republicans are comfortable with him as the nominee. I guess I'm the only one who sees it this way.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 15, 2012, 06:41:09 PM
37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.
Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

;) :P
Well it was the magic number in NH for me too, it's just that in the last GE in Ireland and Britain the leading party got an unconvincing victory with 36%, and that I got the feeling in both of those that 37% would have made a significant difference.

The idea that Fine Gael's victory was "unconvincing" is one I haven't heard before.
In fairness there was a lot of hype about an overall majority, and the fact that FG couldn't get above what FF got for an age said to me that the people don't trust FG.

Now, that's comparable to UK 2010.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: I'm JewCon in name only. on January 15, 2012, 06:44:39 PM
Romney will break 40% soon, and after SC probably breaks 50. D:
Impossible. Don't you remember? 75% of Republicans despise and distrust Mitt. No way will he ever get that high.

They don't like him, dude. It's ok to admit it. Hell, I have to admit that a lot of people within the PA GOP dislike one of their own (Santorum).

Romney's boost can be attributed to a feeling of inevitability now. We're being bombarded with stories about how the GOP is/has to unite behind the "clear frontrunner" now. Romney is naturally going to benefit.
One of the worst myths in this cycle is that the GOP absolutely despises Mitt. A few do, yes, but a majority of GOP voters are fine with him being the nominee. His favorable are better than most candidates left in the race. People who really dislike and despise him aren't going to flock to him after he won two states - they'll keep supporting an alternative until he's the only one left.

I don't despise Romney, I'm upset with him. He's not the man I supported in 2008. I believe that's where a lot of the distrust comes from.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 18, 2012, 12:15:13 PM
THE RETURN OF NEWT (or the collapse of Romney, same thing): Part 3

Romney 34% (-3)
Gingrich 15% (+1)
Santorum 15% (+1)
Paul 12%
Perry 6% (+1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on January 18, 2012, 04:10:20 PM
Romney 33% (-1)
Gingrich 16% (+1)
Santorum 14% (-1)
Paul 12%
Perry 7% (+1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 18, 2012, 04:26:29 PM
Romney's lead over Newt has gone from 24% (37%-13%) to 17% (33%-16%) in three days.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on January 18, 2012, 05:46:15 PM
How the hell is Perry going up?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TheGlobalizer on January 18, 2012, 07:23:38 PM

He didn't sound like a total retard in the last debate.  Probably just a bunch of housewives fantasizing about getting ridden by a cowboy or something stupid like that.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 19, 2012, 02:26:18 PM
The Newt surge continues:

Romney 33%
Gingrich 17% (+1)
Paul 13% (+1)
Santorum 13% (-1)
Perry 8% (+1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on January 19, 2012, 02:38:34 PM
And the unexplainable Perry surge... he had his best result in three weeks the day he dropped out.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Nhoj on January 19, 2012, 02:42:46 PM
And the unexplainable Perry surge... he had his best result in three weeks the day he dropped out.
It seems republican voters like it when someone calls a US ally terrorists.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 20, 2012, 01:05:29 PM
Mittens' coronation has been postponed indefinitely:

Romney 30% (-3)
Gingrich 20% (+3)
Santorum 13%
Ron Paul 13%
Other 9%

His lead has plummeted from 24% to 10% in less than a week.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Beet on January 20, 2012, 01:09:11 PM
And the unexplainable Perry surge... he had his best result in three weeks the day he dropped out.

Had he just stayed in the race a couple more days, he would have surged to the top and won everything!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on January 20, 2012, 01:09:46 PM
I hear Romney's been invited to keynote the Tripoli Victory Parade.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on January 20, 2012, 01:16:39 PM
Mittens' coronation has been postponed indefinitely:

Romney 30% (-3)
Gingrich 20% (+3)
Santorum 13%
Ron Paul 13%
Other 9%

His lead has plummeted from 24% to 10% in less than a week.

Romney's post NH surge is starting to look similar in shape to Perry, Cain and Gringrich's. I wonder if Newt will surge ahead and then implode for a third time?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 20, 2012, 01:18:54 PM
Yup, it's pretty clear than Romney was the flavor of the month for January. Unfortunately, when put under the spotlight, he, like all the anti-Romneys before him, faltered.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on January 20, 2012, 01:23:21 PM
To drop 3 points in a single day in a five-day rolling average is unfathomably bad.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on January 20, 2012, 01:27:08 PM
To drop 3 points in a single day in a five-day rolling average is unfathomably bad.

I'm terrible at math, but thinking about that, wouldn't Newt have probably led yesterday's poll?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 20, 2012, 01:30:07 PM
If my math is right (which let's be honest, it's probably not), yesterday's sample would have been Newt 32, Romney 18.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 20, 2012, 01:32:09 PM
What I did was multiply Mitt's number today by five, to unaverage it, and Newt's number today, by 5, to unaverage it.

So that's 150 for Mitt and 100 for Newt. Then you subtract yesterday's numbers four times from that, so

150-33-33-33-33 = 18
100-17-17-17-17 = 32

Is that right?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Beet on January 20, 2012, 01:38:04 PM
The problem is, NONE of these guys look good under the spotlight. Not a single one of them. In all fairness a huge part of that is the tactical nature of these campaigns where the front-runner is piled on by everyone, but there you go.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on January 20, 2012, 01:39:42 PM
Page 7 looks pretty funny right now.

What I did was multiply Mitt's number today by five, to unaverage it, and Newt's number today, by 5, to unaverage it.

So that's 150 for Mitt and 100 for Newt. Then you subtract yesterday's numbers four times from that, so

150-33-33-33-33 = 18
100-17-17-17-17 = 32

Is that right?

Except yesterday's numbers are also made 20% up of a day you didn't count.

30*6 - 33*5 = 15
20*6 - 17*5 = 35

That seems too dramatic, but with a small daily sample size it wouldn't surprise me.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on January 20, 2012, 01:41:53 PM
What I did was multiply Mitt's number today by five, to unaverage it, and Newt's number today, by 5, to unaverage it.

So that's 150 for Mitt and 100 for Newt. Then you subtract yesterday's numbers four times from that, so

150-33-33-33-33 = 18
100-17-17-17-17 = 32

Is that right?
It's right assuming the first day of yesterday's 5 day average is equal to the average of the other 4 days.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 20, 2012, 01:43:22 PM
37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.
Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

;) :P

Looks like tmth was right. Romney never did reach 38% and his campaign has collapsed as result.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on January 20, 2012, 01:44:23 PM
Also keep in mind that a sample size of 200 from a single day is going to have a big margin of error.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 20, 2012, 01:48:00 PM
Absolutely no words for this primary.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on January 20, 2012, 03:15:50 PM
Hilarious. Tomorrow is going to be fun.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on January 20, 2012, 03:49:02 PM
I must express my admiration for the GOP electorate who appearantly have decided that the fact that the primary season is on is no reason to stop the insane volatility of this cycle.

If SC had been on Tuesday or something like that, Mitt now effectively would have the nomination. Just think about that.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 21, 2012, 01:04:19 PM
Romney 31% (+1)
Gingrich 23% (+3)
Paul 14% (+1)
Santorum 12% (-1)
Other 8% (-1)

Romney's first day since the 14th where his numbers haven't fallen or stayed still. But it's also the second day in a row Gingrich has gone up by 3%.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on January 21, 2012, 01:54:00 PM
Romney 31% (+1)
Gingrich 23% (+3)
Paul 14% (+1)
Santorum 12% (-1)
Other 8% (-1)

Romney's first day since the 14th where his numbers haven't fallen or stayed still. But it's also the second day in a row Gingrich has gone up by 3%.

I imagine the bump for Romney is from Perry's support scattering, mostly to Gingrich, but also a bit to Romney and Paul.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on January 21, 2012, 02:07:34 PM
What appears to have happened is something that I never have seen before in GOP races.  Romney has his 30%, but after the two wins (well now one win), I expected to see the 10%-15% of generic GOPers move towards him, and if he won SC, all of them would be in his camp and the race would be over (given Ron Paul's solid 15%).

At any rate, this was happening, but a day or two before the first SC debate, there was a warning in the daily polling that half of these generics were not warming to him.  Then after, the two SC debates, it appears like that those warming to him, went back into undecided, while at the same time, Gingrich started to coalesce the anti-Romneys.

Which goes back to what I was saying before - Mitt needs to solidly break the 30% barrier before another candidate does, or it will be a long slog.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on January 21, 2012, 03:07:17 PM
With a good win tonight, Gingrich could pass Romney nationwide sometime next week. Romney might be able to regain his footing a bit with Florida and Nevada wins, but his inevitability will definitely be gone.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on January 21, 2012, 10:57:36 PM
Romney 31% (+1)
Gingrich 23% (+3)
Paul 14% (+1)
Santorum 12% (-1)
Other 8% (-1)

Romney's first day since the 14th where his numbers haven't fallen or stayed still. But it's also the second day in a row Gingrich has gone up by 3%.

And it is becoming a two man race.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 22, 2012, 01:02:50 PM
Newtmentum slows ever so slightly

Romney 30% (-1)
Gingrich 25% (+2)
Paul 13% (-1)
Santorum 12%
Other 6% (-2)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 22, 2012, 01:14:21 PM
Newtmentum slows ever so slightly

Romney 30% (-1)
Gingrich 25% (+2)
Paul 13% (-1)
Santorum 12%
Other 6% (-2)

We still haven't even had any reasonable reading after SC yet ;)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on January 22, 2012, 01:38:23 PM
Newtmentum slows ever so slightly

Romney 30% (-1)
Gingrich 25% (+2)
Paul 13% (-1)
Santorum 12%
Other 6% (-2)

We still haven't even had any reasonable reading after SC yet ;)

Yep, and Perry still hasn't been fully phased out. Gingrich is almost certainly going to be on top in a few days.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 23, 2012, 01:04:47 PM
Romney's lead has been cut to one point.

Romney 29% (-1)
Gingrich 28% (+3)
Paul 13%
Santorum 11% (-1)
Other 5% (-1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on January 23, 2012, 05:04:39 PM
()


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 24, 2012, 01:03:22 PM
It has finally happened! Praise Jesus!

Gingrich 31% (+3)
Romney 27% (-2)
Paul 12% (-1)
Santorum 12% (+1)
Other 3% (-2)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on January 24, 2012, 02:34:11 PM
Gingrich 31% (+3)
Romney 27% (-2)
Paul 12% (-1)
Santorum 12% (+1)
Other 3% (-2)
()


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on January 24, 2012, 02:35:39 PM
()


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Insula Dei on January 24, 2012, 02:47:46 PM
It has finally happened! Praise Jesus!

Gingrich 31% (+3)
Romney 27% (-2)
Paul 12% (-1)
Santorum 12% (+1)
Other 3% (-2)

No signs of Mittmentum wearing of. Also, watch Santorum's onda lunga! (well, not really, but I wanted to make that joke)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 24, 2012, 06:31:26 PM
()

Need to start a thread of just photos of Democrats laughing during the Republican Convention.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajc0918 on January 24, 2012, 07:55:26 PM
Need to start a thread of just photos of Democrats laughing during the Republican Convention.

Please do that.

()


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on January 24, 2012, 08:12:54 PM
Take it to tumblr and 4chan, kids.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 24, 2012, 08:36:38 PM
Take it to tumblr and 4chan, kids.

()


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on January 24, 2012, 08:40:54 PM
()


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on January 25, 2012, 12:10:47 AM
TIMBER!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 25, 2012, 01:01:54 PM
Uh oh, last night might have been a good night for Mitt:

Gingrich 31%
Romney 28% (+1)
Paul 12%
Santorum 12%


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on January 25, 2012, 01:03:44 PM
Mittmentum!

:P

Somewhat of a relief - I was fully expecting Newt to start running away with this. Is there another debate before Florida?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on January 25, 2012, 01:18:43 PM
Looks like either Mitt had a real good night last night or a massive Newt sample rolled off... maybe a bit of both.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Holmes on January 25, 2012, 01:21:22 PM
Mittmentum!

:P

Somewhat of a relief - I was fully expecting Newt to start running away with this. Is there another debate before Florida?

Oui.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 25, 2012, 01:21:59 PM
Looks like either Mitt had a real good night last night or a massive Newt sample rolled off... maybe a bit of both.

I think the first post-SC sample will have just rolled off.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 25, 2012, 01:23:51 PM
I think that insane sample where Gingrich had something like a 15-point lead is the one that rolled off today, which would explain the numbers.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on January 25, 2012, 01:54:35 PM
Newt made a mistake playing defense in the last debate.  Newt has to recapture the mo in thursday debate.

Basically, the GOP electorate is ping-ponging back and forth between being scared of nominating Newt, and wanting to execute the Establishment over Mittbot.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 26, 2012, 02:08:43 PM
Gingrich is still expanding his lead nationally, so it looks like the only reason Mitt is ahead again in Florida is because he's blanketing the airwaves. His campaign really is disgusting.

Gingrich 31%
Romney 25% (-3)
Paul 13% (+1)
Santorum 13% (+1)
Other 3%


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 26, 2012, 02:18:44 PM
Gingrich is still expanding his lead nationally, so it looks like the only reason Mitt is ahead again in Florida is because he's blanketing the airwaves. His campaign really is disgusting.

Gingrich 31%
Romney 25% (-3)
Paul 13% (+1)
Santorum 13% (+1)
Other 3%

If Newt can open up a 10 point lead, would a lose in FL even matter that much? Where would his supporters go? The anyone-but-mitters aren't going to Mitt or Paul and Santorum'll probably drop out soon after FL.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Small Business Owner of Any Repute on January 26, 2012, 02:20:10 PM
Gingrich is still expanding his lead nationally, so it looks like the only reason Mitt is ahead again in Florida is because he's blanketing the airwaves. His campaign really is disgusting.

If you think that Romney's money-soaked campaign is disgusting, you must have been really upset over how Obama absolutely drowned McCain in 2008 in terms of ads and campaign spending. Right?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 26, 2012, 02:22:29 PM
Gingrich is still expanding his lead nationally, so it looks like the only reason Mitt is ahead again in Florida is because he's blanketing the airwaves. His campaign really is disgusting.

If you think that Romney's money-soaked campaign is disgusting, you must have been really upset over how Obama absolutely drowned McCain in 2008 in terms of ads and campaign spending. Right?

No. The two aren't comparable, as I explained to JJ.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on January 26, 2012, 02:26:05 PM
Obama got more money from Wall St. during the 2008 campaign. I know he did get a lot of individual contributions, but pretending like he ran a campaign funded entirely off the backs of the working man is silly. He outspent McCain 2:1, so he and Romney had a lot in common. And that's why I am supporting either one because I want my candidate to blanket the airwaves.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on January 26, 2012, 02:31:19 PM
Well, Newt's doing well nationally, but we have to take it one state at a time.  If Romney wins Florida, many of his supporters may go back to Romney.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Peeperkorn on January 26, 2012, 02:44:46 PM
Gingrich is still expanding his lead nationally, so it looks like the only reason Mitt is ahead again in Florida is because he's blanketing the airwaves. His campaign really is disgusting.

Gingrich 31%
Romney 25% (-3)
Paul 13% (+1)
Santorum 13% (+1)
Other 3%

I find kind of amusing that Paul has more than a half of Romney's support.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on January 26, 2012, 02:48:51 PM
Giuliani showed us why national polls don't matter. I'll pay attention one state at a time. I still say whoever wins Florida wins the nomination. If Newt is going to do it, he needs to hit another home run tonight in the debate.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 26, 2012, 02:49:19 PM
Gingrich is still expanding his lead nationally, so it looks like the only reason Mitt is ahead again in Florida is because he's blanketing the airwaves. His campaign really is disgusting.

If you think that Romney's money-soaked campaign is disgusting, you must have been really upset over how Obama absolutely drowned McCain in 2008 in terms of ads and campaign spending. Right?

It's always amusing seeing people picking a fight with Lief's pro-Gingrich persona.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on January 26, 2012, 03:07:23 PM
I am pleasantly surprised by these numbers today. Newt just needs to figure out how to win Florida.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 26, 2012, 03:08:57 PM
I am pleasantly surprised by these numbers today. Newt just needs to figure out how to win Florida.

Just get it down to a narrow Romney win and I think we're still okay.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: argentarius on January 26, 2012, 03:37:16 PM
5 days in this race is longer than an eternity for a momentum shift to happen. Infact, there could be 2 momentum shifts.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: M on January 26, 2012, 04:44:06 PM
Giuliani showed us why national polls don't matter. I'll pay attention one state at a time. I still say whoever wins Florida wins the nomination. If Newt is going to do it, he needs to hit another home run tonight in the debate.

Agreed. I was receptive to the Giuliani strategy last cycle, but it was an abysmal failure. States matter, mo' matter, the snowball effect ends up deciding most nominations.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on January 26, 2012, 04:48:00 PM
Gingrich is still expanding his lead nationally, so it looks like the only reason Mitt is ahead again in Florida is because he's blanketing the airwaves. His campaign really is disgusting.

If you think that Romney's money-soaked campaign is disgusting, you must have been really upset over how Obama absolutely drowned McCain in 2008 in terms of ads and campaign spending. Right?

No. The two aren't comparable, as I explained to JJ.

Only the dreams of total hypocrisy, Lief.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on January 26, 2012, 11:12:16 PM
I guess Mittens loses support in states where he doesn't have millions and millions in superPACs actively spending money.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 27, 2012, 01:07:44 PM
No signs of a Newt crash nationally, only in Florida where the Mormon is buying the election.

Gingrich 32% (+1)
Romney 24% (-1)
Paul 14% (+1)
Santorum 13%
Other 3%


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on January 27, 2012, 02:07:17 PM
Damn, the lead is still growing...


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on January 27, 2012, 02:12:58 PM
I guess Mittens loses support in states where he doesn't have millions and millions in superPACs actively spending money.

No signs of a Newt crash nationally, only in Florida where the Mormon is buying the election.


That's my concern for the general election. While Romney is predictable, boring, and has serious electability issues, he and his SuperPACs might still be able to blanket the country in advertising, outspending even Obama's billion dollar campaign.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on January 27, 2012, 02:37:33 PM
You all are crazy if you think Romney will be able to keep up with Obama's campaign war chest. Mittens might be able to out raise McCain if he doesn't take public funds, which I expect him NOT to this time around, he won't reach the $750M/$1B threshold Obama is likely to get to this time.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 27, 2012, 02:44:05 PM
5 days in this race is longer than an eternity for a momentum shift to happen. Infact, there could be 2 momentum shifts.
Per day, that is, on a cautious estimate.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: big bad fab on January 27, 2012, 05:12:02 PM

There is inertia nationally, compared with the state currently at stake.
It was the same with the series of IA, NH, SC.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 29, 2012, 01:54:58 PM
Gingrich is collapsing but Romney's not gaining any of it:

Gingrich 28% (-4)
Romney 26%
Santorum 15% (+2)
Paul 14% (+1)
Other 2%


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: argentarius on January 29, 2012, 02:03:33 PM
Gingrich is collapsing but Romney's not gaining any of it:

Gingrich 28% (-4)
Romney 26%
Santorum 15% (+2)
Paul 14% (+1)
Other 2%
I think that was just a very good sample for Newt rolling off.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on January 29, 2012, 04:58:23 PM
Gingrich is collapsing but Romney's not gaining any of it:

Gingrich 28% (-4)
Romney 26%
Santorum 15% (+2)
Paul 14% (+1)
Other 2%
That is exactly what I would have expected from Thursday's debate.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 30, 2012, 01:09:37 PM
Not much movement today, though the mini-Santorum surge continues:

Gingrich 28%
Romney 27% (+1)
Santorum 16% (+1)
Paul 13% (-1)
Other 2%


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on January 30, 2012, 01:10:51 PM
Santorum needs to drop out after Florida and endorse the next President (possibly) of the United States in order to blunt the impact of Romney's comfortable victory there.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on January 30, 2012, 02:17:44 PM
Santorum needs to drop out after Florida and endorse the next President (possibly) of the United States in order to blunt the impact of Romney's comfortable victory there.
Why would Santorum drop out?  He has the momentum.  Gingrich is fumbling and Santorum's just had two great debate performances. 


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on January 30, 2012, 02:26:24 PM
Santorum needs to drop out after Florida and endorse the next President (possibly) of the United States in order to blunt the impact of Romney's comfortable victory there.
Why would Santorum drop out?  He has the momentum.  Gingrich is fumbling and Santorum's just had two great debate performances.  

He has no money and even less organisation than Gingrich, who's shown an ability to come back from the dead with great debate performances in the past - remember that Gingrich failed completely in New Hampshire only to rebound and win South Carolina in a landslide. Santorum probably won't drop out, but he'll be handing Romney the nomination on a silver platter if he doesn't.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on January 30, 2012, 02:29:31 PM
Santorum needs to drop out after Florida and endorse the next President (possibly) of the United States in order to blunt the impact of Romney's comfortable victory there.
Why would Santorum drop out?  He has the momentum.  Gingrich is fumbling and Santorum's just had two great debate performances. 

Besides what was said above me, Gingrich is still going to come in a solid second in Florida. Santorum is battling for third with Ron Paul (who never really even attempted to compete in the state)... so yeah.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 31, 2012, 01:02:08 PM
Mini-Santorum surge continues, but otherwise literally nothing happens today.

Gingrich 28%
Romney 27%
Santorum 17% (+1)
Paul 13%
Other 2%


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 31, 2012, 01:49:46 PM
Let's hope it's noticeable in the Florida results.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 31, 2012, 02:03:21 PM
Santorum is the Anti Romney.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on January 31, 2012, 02:07:03 PM
He's the Anti Both These Clowns.

And if he weren't such a bad candidate he'd be running away with it by now. :P


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TheGlobalizer on January 31, 2012, 02:32:42 PM
if he weren't such a bad candidate he'd be running away with it by now. :P


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on February 01, 2012, 01:32:02 PM
Oh dear

Romney 31% (+4)
Gingrich 26% (-2)
Santorum 16% (-1)
Paul 11% (-2)
Other 2%


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 01, 2012, 01:33:08 PM
Oh dear

Romney 31% (+4)
Gingrich 26% (-2)
Santorum 16% (-1)
Paul 11% (-2)
Other 2%

:(


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 01, 2012, 01:34:13 PM
Looks like it's over then. At least we stopped Romney from sweeping all 50 states.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on February 01, 2012, 01:36:34 PM
Looks like it's over then. At least we stopped Romney from sweeping all 50 states.
Don't loose hope! Remember when we thought it was over when he won New Hampshire?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: memphis on February 01, 2012, 01:39:08 PM
Looks like it's over then. At least we stopped Romney from sweeping all 50 states.
No. This race has been insanely volatile. The GOP doesn't know what the hell it wants. Nobody knows what will happen next.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on February 01, 2012, 02:04:43 PM
Looks like it's over then. At least we stopped Romney from sweeping all 50 states.
Don't loose hope! Remember when we thought it was over when he won New Hampshire?

^^^ This. Keep hope alive!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on February 01, 2012, 02:24:31 PM
Romney, like Gingrich, goes gaffe city whenever he has frontrunner status.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 01, 2012, 02:35:31 PM
Romney, like Gingrich, goes gaffe city whenever he has frontrunner status.

Mitt's gaffe city all the time.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on February 01, 2012, 02:56:56 PM
Romney, like Gingrich, goes gaffe city whenever he has frontrunner status.

Mitt's gaffe city all the time.

Yes, but people actual listen to him when he's ahead.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on February 01, 2012, 03:08:42 PM
Romney will be nominated. It all depends on how long Gingrich can afford to drag it out. I'm sure there will be yet another surge left in him before it is all said and done.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: M on February 01, 2012, 03:40:37 PM
I'm going to go ahead and predict that Thaddeus McCotter will jump back in and win most of the remaining states. Then a brokered convention will nominate Dan Quayle on the 87th ballot.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on February 01, 2012, 06:49:15 PM
Looks like it's over then. At least we stopped Romney from sweeping all 50 states.
Don't loose hope! Remember when we thought it was over when he won New Hampshire?

Who said that.  I was saying SC would be the crucial one.

I don't yet think it is over.  Maybe by the Ides of March.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on February 01, 2012, 08:31:01 PM
Oh dear

Romney 31% (+4)
Gingrich 26% (-2)
Santorum 16% (-1)
Paul 11% (-2)
Other 2%

That's too ugly to even look at.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 02, 2012, 01:02:17 PM
Not as bad as I predicted... maybe yesterday was a bad sample:

Romney 31%
Gingrich 25% (-1)
Santorum 17% (+1)
Paul 12% (+1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 02, 2012, 01:08:11 PM
Up, up, up...


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TheGlobalizer on February 02, 2012, 01:36:23 PM
Not as bad as I predicted... maybe yesterday was a bad sample:

Romney 31%
Gingrich 25% (-1)
Santorum 17% (+1)
Paul 12% (+1)

Christ, if Santorum makes it into 2nd, I'll have to leave the forums for a week to avoid the inevitable disgusting display from our resident congratulatee.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 03, 2012, 02:27:45 AM

That's what I was doing too, until I discovered Viagra.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 03, 2012, 06:29:57 AM
Not as bad as I predicted... maybe yesterday was a bad sample:

Romney 31%
Gingrich 25% (-1)
Santorum 17% (+1)
Paul 12% (+1)

Christ, if Santorum makes it into 2nd, I'll have to leave the forums for a week to avoid the inevitable disgusting display from our resident congratulatee.
But then what do you do when you come back and find you missed out on his one day stint at number one? :(


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Dan the Roman on February 03, 2012, 07:47:36 AM
Not as bad as I predicted... maybe yesterday was a bad sample:

Romney 31%
Gingrich 25% (-1)
Santorum 17% (+1)
Paul 12% (+1)

Really weak surge. And here comes the bad news cycle on poor people, indexing minimum wage.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 03, 2012, 01:02:20 PM
If there's some huge Romney surge/Gingrich collapse happening, then it's doing a pretty poor job of showing up in the Gallup polling:

Romney 33% (+2)
Gingrich 25%
Santorum 16% (-1)
Paul 11% (-1)
Other 3% (+1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 04, 2012, 01:02:06 PM
Gross...

Romney 35% (+2)
Gingrich 24% (-1)
Santorum 16%
Paul 12% (+1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on February 04, 2012, 09:07:05 PM
Romney 35% (+2)
Gingrich 24% (-1)
Santorum 16%
Paul 12% (+1)

Probably a measure of momentum.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Alcon on February 04, 2012, 09:54:39 PM
Romney 35% (+2)
Gingrich 24% (-1)
Santorum 16%
Paul 12% (+1)

Probably a measure of momentum.

NONE OF THE THINGS YOU SAY ACTUALLY MEAN THINGS.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on February 05, 2012, 02:21:54 AM
Romney 35% (+2)
Gingrich 24% (-1)
Santorum 16%
Paul 12% (+1)

Probably a measure of momentum.

NONE OF THE THINGS YOU SAY ACTUALLY MEAN THINGS.

Alcon, the rise in Romney's numbers is probably a reaction to his win in Florida, his momentum from winning that state.  This effect has been around since before you were born.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Alcon on February 05, 2012, 02:24:09 AM
Romney 35% (+2)
Gingrich 24% (-1)
Santorum 16%
Paul 12% (+1)

Probably a measure of momentum.

NONE OF THE THINGS YOU SAY ACTUALLY MEAN THINGS.

Alcon, the rise in Romney's numbers is probably a reaction to his win in Florida, his momentum from winning that state.  This effect has been around since before you were born.

The concept of momentum has not been around since before I was born.  It was invented in 1991.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 05, 2012, 05:07:00 PM
Gallup decided not to update today... ???


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on February 05, 2012, 05:13:04 PM
Gallup decided not to update today... ???

Apparently all there pollsters are counting votes in Nevada.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 05, 2012, 06:18:58 PM
Romney 35% (+2)
Gingrich 24% (-1)
Santorum 16%
Paul 12% (+1)

Probably a measure of momentum.

NONE OF THE THINGS YOU SAY ACTUALLY MEAN THINGS.

Alcon, the rise in Romney's numbers is probably a reaction to his win in Florida, his momentum from winning that state.  This effect has been around since before you were born.

The concept of momentum has not been around since before I was born.  It was invented in 1991.

What we will have is momentum. We will look forward to Big Mo being on our side. - Papa Bush, 1980


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on February 06, 2012, 01:04:23 PM
Have they stopped polling? No update today either.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 06, 2012, 01:06:35 PM
Maybe they took a break for Super Bowl weekend? It'd be pretty lame if they stopped doing this...


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P! on February 06, 2012, 04:53:07 PM
Maybe they took a break for Super Bowl weekend? It'd be pretty lame if they stopped doing this...

Polls during SBW are exceptionally inaccurate, so they're probably just having the next one tomorrow or today.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 06, 2012, 06:21:10 PM
Yeah, they didn't do Obama approval polling over the weekend either. Probably starting back again tonight.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 07, 2012, 01:07:32 PM
Gingrich is failing. Rick, this is your moment.

Romney 37% (+2)
Gingrich 22% (-2)
Santorum 16%
Paul 11% (-1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on February 07, 2012, 02:32:12 PM
The moment we all have been waiting for. Can Rick seize it?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on February 08, 2012, 02:42:43 AM
Prepare for a Santorum mega-bounce!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 08, 2012, 01:02:12 PM
The Santorum Surge, it begins:

Romney 37% (nc)
Gingrich 21% (-1)
Santorum 17% (+1)
Paul 12% (+1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on February 08, 2012, 02:20:48 PM
The Santorum Surge, it begins:

Romney 37% (nc)
Gingrich 21% (-1)
Santorum 17% (+1)
Paul 12% (+1)

I can feel it.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 08, 2012, 02:22:46 PM
The Santorum Surge, it begins:

Romney 37% (nc)
Gingrich 21% (-1)
Santorum 17% (+1)
Paul 12% (+1)

I can feel it.

Pass the Preparation-H dude.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 08, 2012, 02:24:23 PM
The calm before the deluge...


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 08, 2012, 02:56:20 PM
Deluges of Santorum.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 08, 2012, 02:59:19 PM
This promiscuous herd mentality is hilarious.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TheGlobalizer on February 08, 2012, 03:09:54 PM


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on February 08, 2012, 03:48:02 PM
The next two pages of this thread shall be nothing but us using the words "deluge" and "Santorum" in the same sentence.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mehmentum on February 08, 2012, 05:16:17 PM
The next two pages of this thread shall be nothing but us using the words "deluge" and "Santorum" in the same sentence.

Santorum Deluge. Santorum Deluge. Santorum Deluge. Santorum Deluge. Santorum Deluge. Santorum Deluge. Santorum Deluge. Santorum Deluge. Santorum Deluge. Santorum Deluge. Santorum Deluge. Santorum Deluge. Santorum Deluge. Santorum Deluge. Santorum Deluge.






Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on February 08, 2012, 05:34:26 PM
The next two pages of this thread shall be nothing but us using the words "deluge" and "Santorum" in the same sentence.

well, since the topic is arseholes:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz-E8AexUjc (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz-E8AexUjc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on February 08, 2012, 05:56:32 PM
I don't know why you think Rick Santorum's name is so offensive. "Santorum" is not crude.

Now "santorum"- that should be infractable! But seriously, go Rick!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on February 09, 2012, 05:53:29 AM
Why am I seeing nothing of that "surge" in actual pollnumbers yet? :(


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 09, 2012, 10:59:24 AM
Be patient. Today will be the first post-Santorum victory polling, and only for 1/5 of the numbers.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 09, 2012, 01:08:00 PM
mmph that's the stuff

Romney 36% (-1)
Santorum 20% (+3)
Gingrich 20% (-1)
Paul 10% (-2)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 09, 2012, 01:19:57 PM
A friend of mine did a daily extrapolation and said Santorum is probably at 25% and Newt down to 15% today.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on February 09, 2012, 01:31:09 PM
Hmm.. does that mean Santorum was ahead or almost even with Romney in last night's numbers?  I assume it must have been very close.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on February 10, 2012, 01:51:15 AM
Nate Silver from 538 tweeted "Reverse engineering the Gallup tracking poll, looks like Wed.'s results were about Romney 32, Santorum 32, Gingrich 16."


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 10, 2012, 11:25:16 AM
Nate Silver from 538 tweeted "Reverse engineering the Gallup tracking poll, looks like Wed.'s results were about Romney 32, Santorum 32, Gingrich 16."

LOL, Mitt Romney.


Title: Santorum in second, Newt slipping in Daily Gallup Tracker
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 10, 2012, 01:26:21 PM
Romney - 34% (-2)
Santorum - 22% (+2)
Gingrich - 18% (-2)
Paul - 10% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on February 10, 2012, 02:03:56 PM
ZOMG IT"S HAPPENING!!!1!!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Reds4 on February 10, 2012, 02:06:16 PM
I actually thought Santorum would gain a little more today than he did.. but maybe I'm doing the math of each night's sample wrong in my head.. looking forward to seeing some more national polling from other polling companies.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on February 10, 2012, 04:22:10 PM
inb4 Santorum takes the lead for good.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 10, 2012, 11:06:42 PM
inb4 Santorum takes the lead for good.

I doubt that if Santorum takes the lead it will be good.  We could easily have another four or five lead changes the way things have been going for the GOP this time.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on February 11, 2012, 02:24:15 PM
Romney: 34% (nc)
Santorum: 24% (+2)
Gingrich: 17% (-1)
Paul: 8% (-2)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on February 11, 2012, 02:26:15 PM
Romney: 34% (nc)
Santorum: 24% (+2)
Gingrich: 17% (-1)
Paul: 8% (-2)

Santorum has convinced the Paulites of their sinful ways.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on February 11, 2012, 03:34:52 PM
Paul will get a bump if he wins Maine today.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 11, 2012, 06:50:07 PM
Paul will get a bump if he wins Maine today.

No bump for you!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on February 11, 2012, 07:18:42 PM

He deserves a negative bump for blowing this one. Nobody seems to be better at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory than Ron Paul. Not even Romney!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 12, 2012, 01:06:27 PM
Santorum continues to surge across the country

Romney 34% (nc)
Santorum 27% (+3)
Gingrich 16% (-1)
Paul 8% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 13, 2012, 02:38:01 AM
Santorum continues to surge across the country

Romney 34% (nc)
Santorum 27% (+3)
Gingrich 16% (-1)
Paul 8% (nc)


The situation is becoming sticky for Romney.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 13, 2012, 02:59:07 AM
Today will be the first 5-day tracking report which includes only interviews after Santorum's win on Tuesday. Probably Romney by 3-5%.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 13, 2012, 03:31:37 AM
Today will be the first 5-day tracking report which includes only interviews after Santorum's win on Tuesday. Probably Romney by 3-5%.

Yeah, which seems to be starkly at odds with PPP's national poll.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 13, 2012, 01:08:25 PM
A virtual tie.

Romney 32% (-2)
Santorum 30% (+3)
Gingrich 16%
Paul 8%


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on February 13, 2012, 03:25:09 PM
Santorum will have the lead tomorrow and it will only get progressively more Santorum until the next break point at the debate.

I doubt even 30% of GOP primary voters know Romney won Maine.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 13, 2012, 05:13:15 PM
Santorum will have the lead tomorrow and it will only get progressively more Santorum until the next break point at the debate.

Santorum trickling its way up.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TheGlobalizer on February 14, 2012, 11:41:43 AM
Santorum will have the lead tomorrow and it will only get progressively more Santorum until the next break point at the debate.

Santorum trickling its way up.

What an unseemly visual.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 14, 2012, 01:01:08 PM
Romney 32 (nc)
Santorum 30 (nc)
Gingrich 16 (nc)
Paul 8 (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: CLARENCE 2015! on February 14, 2012, 01:01:27 PM
That isnt good...


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on February 14, 2012, 01:05:55 PM

Maine/CPAC


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on February 14, 2012, 01:08:01 PM
Has the Brown Bounce run out of steam?

And will he call a snap general election?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 15, 2012, 01:34:59 PM
Romney 33 (+1)
Santorum 31 (+1)
Gingrich 15 (-1)
Paul 8 (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on February 15, 2012, 01:37:15 PM
We might see Romney and Santorum both rise for awhile as Gingrich bottoms out.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on February 15, 2012, 01:39:06 PM
This is a genuine surprise to me - yeah, Santorum has surged, but I was expecting him to easily pass Romney and lead by 10 points or so.

I'm very glad this race is coming down to these two - I've now determined none of them will beat Obama, but Romney will at least make it a race and help Republicans downballot. We'd be at risk to losing the House if Santorum or Gingrich were nominated.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: redcommander on February 16, 2012, 02:04:44 AM
This is a genuine surprise to me - yeah, Santorum has surged, but I was expecting him to easily pass Romney and lead by 10 points or so.

I'm very glad this race is coming down to these two - I've now determined none of them will beat Obama, but Romney will at least make it a race and help Republicans downballot. We'd be at risk to losing the House if Santorum or Gingrich were nominated.

You don't win elections by conceding them nine months from election day.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on February 16, 2012, 02:48:34 AM
This is a genuine surprise to me - yeah, Santorum has surged, but I was expecting him to easily pass Romney and lead by 10 points or so.

I'm very glad this race is coming down to these two - I've now determined none of them will beat Obama, but Romney will at least make it a race and help Republicans downballot. We'd be at risk to losing the House if Santorum or Gingrich were nominated.

You don't win elections by conceding them nine months from election day.

Meh, I think he's just trying to be realistic.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Alcon on February 16, 2012, 12:36:16 PM
This is a genuine surprise to me - yeah, Santorum has surged, but I was expecting him to easily pass Romney and lead by 10 points or so.

I'm very glad this race is coming down to these two - I've now determined none of them will beat Obama, but Romney will at least make it a race and help Republicans downballot. We'd be at risk to losing the House if Santorum or Gingrich were nominated.

You don't win elections by conceding them nine months from election day.

You don't win elections based on things posted on election forums either.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 16, 2012, 01:19:24 PM
IT HAS HAPPENED.

Santorum 32% (+1)
Romney 31% (-2)
Gingrich 14% (-1)
Paul 10% (+2)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 16, 2012, 01:24:56 PM
How do you like us now?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 16, 2012, 02:14:06 PM
Santorum soon will be on the lips of every Republican.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on February 16, 2012, 02:51:43 PM
Congratulations Phil!!!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: LastVoter on February 16, 2012, 09:51:24 PM
Santorum soon will be on the lips of every Republican.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on February 16, 2012, 10:00:09 PM
IT HAS HAPPENED.

Santorum 32% (+1)
Romney 31% (-2)
Gingrich 14% (-1)
Paul 10% (+2)

I guess the news of Romney stealing both CPAC and Maine has sunk in.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 16, 2012, 10:37:19 PM

Well, he's certainly making a big splash on the polls.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 17, 2012, 01:06:22 PM
Santorum - 34% (+2)
Romney - 30% (-1)
Gingrich - 14% (nc)
Paul - 11% (+1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on February 17, 2012, 01:12:44 PM
Dat deluge.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Simfan34 on February 17, 2012, 01:34:06 PM
The Winfield legacy lives on.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 17, 2012, 02:30:29 PM
Mitt's peak on RCP - 34.5%
Santorum currently at 34.2%.

Mitt's crap.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 17, 2012, 02:43:32 PM
The question is whether Santorum will reach Gingrich's peak of 35%.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 18, 2012, 01:03:56 PM
Mittens is, once again, collapsing:

Santorum 35% (+1)
Romney 29% (-1)
Gingrich 13% (-1)
Paul 11% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on February 18, 2012, 01:11:01 PM
Excellent. I was really worried for that day or two that that there was no change that Santorum was about to start falling like Gingrich. I'm hoping Rick is resistant to the sort of collapse the other ABRs have had. It probably helps that his surge was in two different parts, rather than from nothing to the lead like the other ABRs.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 18, 2012, 05:45:02 PM
Mittens is, once again, collapsing:

Santorum 35% (+1)
Romney 29% (-1)
Gingrich 13% (-1)
Paul 11% (nc)

Bwahahaha...


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Person Man on February 18, 2012, 05:47:26 PM
I can barely even look at a thread about this primary without snickering anymore. This is ridiculous.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 19, 2012, 01:47:08 PM
yes... YES...

Santorum 36% (+1)
Romney 28% (-1)
Gingrich 13%
Paul 11%


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on February 19, 2012, 01:52:17 PM
It's Happening! Oh, My God!!!

The santorum is spreading!!!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 19, 2012, 01:54:14 PM
This is our time. It's ironic that February 28th - the fifth anniversary of the worst day of my life - might turn out to be one of the best.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on February 19, 2012, 01:56:46 PM
This is our time. It's ironic that February 28th - the fifth anniversary of the worst day of my life - might turn out to be one of the best.

What happened on 28-02-2007 ?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on February 19, 2012, 02:45:22 PM
Looking at the poll data, February 14 seems to have been a good day for Mitt, being the last time he actually gained. That falls off tomorrow, so he should drop another point or two tomorrow. :)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on February 19, 2012, 02:54:01 PM
Santorum has now tied Romney for the second highest peak on the RCP national average. He is also only 1% point below the highest anyone has been on the Gallup tracking poll.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Rowan on February 19, 2012, 04:36:56 PM
Oh Lord.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: CLARENCE 2015! on February 19, 2012, 05:11:56 PM
It is surprising that it is continuing... I hope he hasnt peaked too soon


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 19, 2012, 05:33:57 PM
This is our time. It's ironic that February 28th - the fifth anniversary of the worst day of my life - might turn out to be one of the best.

What happened on 28-02-2007 ?

Personal stuff  :P


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on February 19, 2012, 07:39:47 PM
Wow, amazing stuff. Santorum's blown the race wide open. S+8 nationally.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 20, 2012, 01:03:02 PM
Santorum now leads by double digits.

Santorum 36%
Romney 26% (-2)
Gingrich 13%
Paul 11%


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on February 20, 2012, 01:03:43 PM
As I predicted yesterday, Mitt loses two points. Santorum's unchanged, though. Lets hope he hasn't peaked.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 20, 2012, 01:04:08 PM
But, remember, Mitt can "dial it in" at this point. Clearly a strong frontrunner.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on February 20, 2012, 03:13:27 PM
If Santorum has a decisive performance on Wednesday, it's over for Mitt.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Badger on February 20, 2012, 08:41:23 PM
As much as i'd like to buy it unconditionally, there's still a house of cards element to santorum's support. If he doesn't win MI he's on a definite downward arc entering super Tuesday....


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on February 20, 2012, 10:30:01 PM
Honestly, Gingrich needs to go hard after Santorum in the debate on Wednesday, rather than focus on Romney, which he'll probably try to do. The only way Gingrich can still win is if he completely deteriorates Santorum enough to once again by the "Anti-Romney" choice. He's not going to be able to make this a two-way race between himself and Santorum, try as he might.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TomC on February 20, 2012, 10:41:11 PM
Honestly, Gingrich needs to go hard after Santorum in the debate on Wednesday, rather than focus on Romney, which he'll probably try to do. The only way Gingrich can still win is if he completely deteriorates Santorum enough to once again by the "Anti-Romney" choice. He's not going to be able to make this a two-way race between himself and Santorum, try as he might.

No, Romney is still the frontrunner and still has the clearest path t the nomination without a brokered convention. If Santorum gains steam in delegate collection, it's more likely we go to a brokered convention and Gingrich could get something out of it.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 21, 2012, 09:39:21 PM
Honestly, Gingrich needs to go hard after Santorum in the debate on Wednesday, rather than focus on Romney, which he'll probably try to do. The only way Gingrich can still win is if he completely deteriorates Santorum enough to once again by the "Anti-Romney" choice. He's not going to be able to make this a two-way race between himself and Santorum, try as he might.

Gingrich can't win.  All he can do right now is affect which of Romney and Santorum win.  So it's no surprise that a Romney supporter is saying he needs to attack Santorum, just as I hope he'll attack Romney.  Personally, I think Newt's focus will be on attacking the media again. ;)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on February 22, 2012, 01:21:25 PM
Santorum 35% (-1)
Romney 27% (+1)
Gingrich 15% (+1)
Paul 10% (-1)

I have a bad feeling about this...


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on February 22, 2012, 02:12:42 PM
Santorum 35% (-1)
Romney 27% (+1)
Gingrich 15% (+1)
Paul 10% (-1)

I have a bad feeling about this...

Oh good god, are we seeing the beginning of a third Newt Surge?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 22, 2012, 02:42:18 PM
Newt gets a point and it's a Newt surge? Please.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on February 22, 2012, 03:25:15 PM
Santorum 35% (-1)
Romney 27% (+1)
Gingrich 15% (+1)
Paul 10% (-1)

I have a bad feeling about this...

Oh good god, are we seeing the beginning of a third Newt Surge?

Actually this would be the fourth Newt surge, however, it would be the third Newt resurrection.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TomC on February 22, 2012, 03:43:45 PM
No, this is a Santorum "correction."


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Vroke on February 22, 2012, 03:52:35 PM
Tonight is do or die for Santorum. If he can really stick it to Romney, then he'll take Michigan and Arizona next week, giving him huge momentum into Super Tuesday. If Romney can stand up and offer better answers than Santorum, then Romney will climb his way back to the top.

Unless Gingrich blows everyone out of the water tonight, I believe he's done for. He hasn't had any significant finish since South Carolina and Florida.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on February 22, 2012, 05:08:28 PM
Newt gets a point and it's a Newt surge? Please.

Well, he's gained two points in two days. I was probably overreacting, but my first reaction these days to seeing Gingrich climbing is to think he's about to surge again...


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Vroke on February 22, 2012, 07:38:08 PM
A Newt surge in the next few days helps Romney more than anyone else. Splitting the social conservative vote between Gingrich and Santorum helps Romney get back in the race for Arizona and Michigan. With those under his belt, he's going into Super Tuesday in a much better position.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 22, 2012, 07:53:04 PM
A Newt surge in the next few days helps Romney more than anyone else. Splitting the social conservative vote between Gingrich and Santorum helps Romney get back in the race for Arizona and Michigan. With those under his belt, he's going into Super Tuesday in a much better position.

These surges have been happening in the space of 2 days, 6 is plenty of time.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Vroke on February 22, 2012, 08:19:23 PM
A Newt surge in the next few days helps Romney more than anyone else. Splitting the social conservative vote between Gingrich and Santorum helps Romney get back in the race for Arizona and Michigan. With those under his belt, he's going into Super Tuesday in a much better position.

These surges have been happening in the space of 2 days, 6 is plenty of time.

Exactly. If Newt has a really good night tonight and really gains momentum again, then he could very well get back into the thick of it. Although, based on the debate so far, I think Newt might have a sore throat - it sounds like it's really scratchy.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Sam Spade on February 22, 2012, 10:25:08 PM
Rick Santorum peaked about a week ago folks.  Sorry I wasn't around to tell you... :P


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: mondale84 on February 23, 2012, 01:51:13 PM
Santorum 34 (-1)
Romney 27 (nc)
Gingrich 15 (nc)
Paul 10 (nc)

...I have a very bad feeling about this....


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on February 23, 2012, 01:54:10 PM
Rick will likely come back to earth now given his debate performance last night. It seems to be a pattern with the anti-Romneys.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 24, 2012, 01:46:41 PM
Santorum 33 (-1)
Romney 27 (nc)
Gingrich 16 (+1)
Paul 11 (+1)

Newtmentum Mark III


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on February 24, 2012, 01:51:03 PM
Santorum 33 (-1)
Romney 27 (nc)
Gingrich 16 (+1)
Paul 11 (+1)

Newtmentum Mark III

Slight shift from Santorum to Gingrich, no change for Romney.
This doesn't look like it's ending anytime soon.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on February 24, 2012, 03:50:18 PM

Whack-a-Mole Mark III  :)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on February 24, 2012, 10:29:03 PM
NEWT WILL RISE AGAIN!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on February 25, 2012, 03:48:33 AM
Go Newt!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 25, 2012, 01:54:23 PM
End of Newt's surge? Rise of Romney?

Santorum - 31% (-2)
Romney - 30% (+3)
Gingrich - 16% (nc)
Paul - 11% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 25, 2012, 02:16:48 PM
Well, it's over. Good job Santorum.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TomC on February 25, 2012, 02:20:05 PM

Option 3 unfortunately


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on February 25, 2012, 05:21:19 PM
Well, it's over. Good job Santorum.

Too bad.  At least Obama gets a weaker opponent in the general now.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on February 25, 2012, 10:36:13 PM
Well, it's over. Good job Santorum.

Too bad.  At least Obama gets a weaker opponent in the general now.

Not really.  If Romney does become the nominee, the weaknesses were always there, and even suspected to be there.  It;s just that the primary campaign has made them more obvious.  Romney might be able to win the general election, but he'll need for the economy to start tanking to do it.  Then he might be able to win because Obama will be the incumbent who will get the blame.  Thing is, Mr 1‱ could still lose it even then.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 26, 2012, 02:03:45 PM
So that Newt surge is over but...

Romney - 31% (+1)
Santorum - 29% (-2)
Gingrich - 15% (-1)
Paul - 11% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 26, 2012, 02:15:43 PM
So that Newt surge is over but...

Romney - 31% (+1)
Santorum - 29% (-2)
Gingrich - 15% (-1)
Paul - 11% (nc)

I guess Mitt's Detroit clunker didn't go unnoticed.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 26, 2012, 03:01:21 PM
So that Newt surge is over but...

Romney - 31% (+1)
Santorum - 29% (-2)
Gingrich - 15% (-1)
Paul - 11% (nc)

I guess Mitt's Detroit clunker didn't go unnoticed.


I love trees.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 26, 2012, 04:48:26 PM
And now the GOP has to settle :(


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 26, 2012, 05:06:11 PM

They said that after Florida and Nevada. And then...


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on February 26, 2012, 05:16:22 PM
Rick, or Newt, will be back I'm sure. We've seen this before.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on February 26, 2012, 05:32:10 PM
If Santorum wins Michigan, or when he wins Washington, either way, he'll bump back up a bit.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on February 26, 2012, 06:21:07 PM
Super Tuesday's going to be pretty important, and it's not super-friendly to Romney...


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 26, 2012, 08:40:21 PM
Washington is the Saturday right before Super Tuesday, yeah? Santorum should get a burst of momentum right in time then.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 26, 2012, 08:55:45 PM
Washington is the Saturday right before Super Tuesday, yeah? Santorum should get a burst of momentum right in time then.

Yep  ;)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on February 26, 2012, 09:50:10 PM
Washington is the Saturday right before Super Tuesday, yeah? Santorum should get a burst of momentum right in time then.

Yep  ;)

I plan on getting as many people out for him as I can. Fortunately, my girlfriend's family is huge and mostly conservative Catholics, so that will help. :)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on February 27, 2012, 03:24:49 PM
I'm surprised by Newt slipping but it helps Santorum remain as the Anti Romney...

Romney - 32% (+1)
Santorum - 28% (-1)
Gingrich - 14% (-1)
Paul - 12% (+1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 27, 2012, 03:34:05 PM
Santorum could be 3-4 ahead again come Thursday for all we know. This primary is insane.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 29, 2012, 01:01:58 PM
Santorum has completely collapsed, and this is even before the reaction to Mitt's double has been factored in. It's over.

Romney 33% (+2)
Santorum 25% (-1)
Gingrich 16% (+2)
Paul 11% (-2)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on February 29, 2012, 01:09:21 PM
Santorum has completely collapsed, and this is even before the reaction to Mitt's double has been factored in. It's over.

Romney 33% (+2)
Santorum 25% (-1)
Gingrich 16% (+2)
Paul 11% (-2)

Newt!!!

Give us one more run at this thing, you old bastard.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on March 02, 2012, 01:06:19 PM
Last two days:

March 1:
Romney 35% (+2)
Santorum 24% (-1)
Gingrich 15% (-1)
Paul 11% (NC)

March 2:
Romney 35% (NC)
Santorum 24% (-1)
Gingrich 15% (+1)
Paul 11% (NC)

Romney's failure to gain today makes me happy. Hopefully he has reached the peak of his surge, and will start declining.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 03, 2012, 01:32:26 PM
LOL santorum.

Romney 36% (+1)
Santorum 22% (-1)
Gingrich 17% (+1)
The guy who is yet to win anything 10% (-1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 03, 2012, 03:52:12 PM
LOL santorum.

Romney 36% (+1)
Santorum 22% (-1)
Gingrich 17% (+1)
10% (-1)

Paul's now so embarrassed by his poor showing that he's removed his name from the poll.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 03, 2012, 03:58:55 PM
LOL santorum.

Romney 36% (+1)
Santorum 22% (-1)
Gingrich 17% (+1)
The guy who is yet to win anything 10% (-1)

I think the Whack-a-Mole will be making an appearance, if not this week, then the next.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on March 03, 2012, 04:24:14 PM
Today's Gallup makes me sad, but I am consoled by the fact that history shows that Gringrich or Santorum will probably surge again, somehow.

But if Romney now leads forever more, I am a sad panda. :(


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 04, 2012, 12:22:44 AM
Bets on when Gingrich overtakes Santorum?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 04, 2012, 01:08:29 AM

Thursday.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on March 05, 2012, 02:59:23 PM
Romney: 38% (nc)
Santorum: 22% (nc)
Gingrich: 15% (-2)
Paul: 12% (+2)

Erm, ok.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 05, 2012, 03:10:12 PM
Romney: 38% (nc)
Santorum: 22% (nc)
Gingrich: 15% (-2)
Paul: 12% (+2)

Erm, ok.

Implies Mittmentum's halted. Another santorum deluge?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Person Man on March 05, 2012, 03:11:48 PM
Romney: 38% (nc)
Santorum: 22% (nc)
Gingrich: 15% (-2)
Paul: 12% (+2)

Erm, ok.

Implies Mittmentum's halted. Another santorum deluge?

I warned that it would be challenging to clean up Santorum with Mittens.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 05, 2012, 03:12:42 PM
38% is the highest anyone has ever been in the tracking poll.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 06, 2012, 12:22:10 PM
Romney: 38% (nc)
Santorum: 22% (nc)
Gingrich: 15% (-2)
Paul: 12% (+2)

Erm, ok.

Implies Mittmentum's halted. Another santorum deluge?

I warned that it would be challenging to clean up Santorum with Mittens.

golf clap


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Volrath50 on March 06, 2012, 01:11:35 PM
Today's Gallup almost made me spit out my tea in surprise.

Romney: 34% (-4)!
Santorum: 24% (+2)
Gingrich: 15% (NC)
Paul: 12% (NC)

I think 4 points is the single biggest movement of any candidate in a single day. Are people getting cold feet about Romney just before Super Tuesday? I hope so. But yeah, Mitt just lost a whopping 6 points of his lead in a single day, something so far not seen except during massive surges.

I'm hoping this isn't just a huge outlier yesterday, and a prelude to a huge surprise upset today.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 01:13:55 PM
oh god yes, please let this be real...


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 01:25:53 PM
Rickmentum!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 06, 2012, 01:29:00 PM
Never doubt.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 06, 2012, 01:33:15 PM
Santorum isn't going up that much, however.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 06, 2012, 01:45:38 PM
Santorum isn't going up that much, however.

Two points in one day in a 5-day tracking poll is pretty big movement.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 06, 2012, 01:45:38 PM
Weird.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 06, 2012, 01:49:04 PM
Bigger swing that at the start of the latest Romney surge (February 25th).


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 06, 2012, 01:52:03 PM
Santorum isn't going up that much, however.

Two points in one day in a 5-day tracking poll is pretty big movement.

It's not a straight shift to Santorum.  A 6 point drop versus a 2 point increase?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 06, 2012, 02:36:09 PM
A bad sample rolled off, a bad sample rolled on, and Mitt's momentum had halted in between (ie, he was back at his full potential.)

He'll probably still be basically ending this tonight. :(


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on March 07, 2012, 02:24:12 PM
Romney 37% (+3)
Santorum 23% (-1)
Gingrich 14% (-1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 07, 2012, 02:41:39 PM
Oh.... okay...

()


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on March 07, 2012, 02:42:35 PM
Ronny quit?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 07, 2012, 03:05:14 PM
Guys, this was before last night. We should see a swing similar to yesterday's.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Phony Moderate on March 07, 2012, 03:07:43 PM
Guys, this was before last night. We should see a swing similar to yesterday's.

In favor of Romney, probably. 
 


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 07, 2012, 03:10:35 PM
Guys, this was before last night. We should see a swing similar to yesterday's.

In favor of Romney, probably. 
 


Not when the narrative was that he didn't do as well as expected/he can't seal the deal with the base.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on March 07, 2012, 03:12:40 PM
But wasn't/isn't the narrative that he beat Rick?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on March 07, 2012, 03:36:18 PM
The Santorum camp seems to be the only group that thinks he was the winner last night. Due mostly to poor organization, he fell behind even further in the delegate count, won only the states he was supposed to win (Seriously, don't tell me he has the momentum because he won ND, the only state in the air), and most importantly, lost Ohio, a state he was leading by double-digits in a week ago.

The narrative is that Mitt Romney wasn't quite able to seal the deal yet, but more and more are seeing him as the likely nominee. It certainly wasn't a great night for Santorum. Looking off the New York Times tracker, it looks like he only got around a dozen more delegates than Gingrich did last night, the guy who Santorum's camp is wanting to drop out.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 07, 2012, 03:36:48 PM
Guys, this was before last night. We should see a swing similar to yesterday's.

In favor of Romney, probably. 
 

Indeed.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: mondale84 on March 07, 2012, 03:39:37 PM
You all do realize that this "victory" for Romney is being billed as a disastrous disappointment, right? Everywhere it's being said that he massively underperformed...whether this is objectively true or not doesn't matter...he ed up according to the Media and that's what the average voter listens to. I think Gingrich and Santorum might get a small bounce, but I think Romney stays flat, especially after this weekend/next week.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 07, 2012, 03:46:36 PM
You all do realize that this "victory" for Romney is being billed as a disastrous disappointment, right? Everywhere it's being said that he massively underperformed...whether this is objectively true or not doesn't matter...he ed up according to the Media and that's what the average voter listens to. I think Gingrich and Santorum might get a small bounce, but I think Romney stays flat, especially after this weekend/next week.

Until they look at the numbers.

Romney was down double digits in OH last week, and was suppose to lose OK and TN by double digits.

I think Saturday could end up being more important than we all think.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on March 07, 2012, 03:54:42 PM
You all do realize that this "victory" for Romney is being billed as a disastrous disappointment, right? Everywhere it's being said that he massively underperformed...whether this is objectively true or not doesn't matter...he ed up according to the Media and that's what the average voter listens to. I think Gingrich and Santorum might get a small bounce, but I think Romney stays flat, especially after this weekend/next week.
Yes, Romney's going to stay in the high 30's, and considering both Gingrich and Santorum will stay in, as well as Paul, that's all he's going to need to win the nomination. Santorum had to over-perform on Super Tuesday - he needed to win Ohio, and he didn't. Yesterday probably helped Gingrich more than it helped him, and if Gingrich can nab Alabama and Mississippi next week, he could be on his way to replacing Santorum.



Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Beet on March 07, 2012, 03:57:29 PM
You all do realize that this "victory" for Romney is being billed as a disastrous disappointment, right? Everywhere it's being said that he massively underperformed...whether this is objectively true or not doesn't matter...he ed up according to the Media and that's what the average voter listens to. I think Gingrich and Santorum might get a small bounce, but I think Romney stays flat, especially after this weekend/next week.

I think Cuyahoga county taking so long to report really hurt the Romnster. His problem was that there comes a point on every election night where journalists, as a professional class, are "primed" to shift away from anticipation and story-telling mode and into analysis mode, start thinking about what their byline is going to be tomorrow or what they are going to say to the 11 o clock news or what the final headline they will write before they go home to the family. On last night, when that point arrived, Santorum was still ahead. It muddled everything. If, instead of trailing by 3% all night until suddenly surging into the lead with +10,000 votes, Romney had led 4% all night and only after midnight saw his lead fall to 1% what then? I don't think the narrative would have been any different than if he won by 5%.

All of which may be irrelevant, since this primary season we tend to see that narrative and momentum don't matter so much (at least so long as Romney is concerned).


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 07, 2012, 04:47:24 PM
I love when the Romney people talk about Santorum's disorganized campaign structure. So the super organized machine barely beat the "inept" team in two major states? Great narrative.

And, tm, Santorum only got a dozen more delegates last night over the guy we want out because the guy we want out camped out in his home state and that happened to be the biggest delegate prize.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on March 07, 2012, 04:56:15 PM
I talk about Santorum's disorganized campaign structure because it has severely hindered his chances at winning the nomination, and I have reservations on how well he can go up against Obama's machine when he can't even get on the ballot in all states.

And yes, that's right - Gingrich ran a smart strategy, and it's going to prove to be so when he wins Alabama and Mississippi next week and passes Santorum in national polls.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 07, 2012, 05:02:14 PM
Shouldn't you have reservations about Mitt Romney's ability to go up against Obama's machine if he can barely beat Santorum's disorganized campaign?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 07, 2012, 05:16:03 PM
Shouldn't you have reservations about Mitt Romney's ability to go up against Obama's machine if he can barely beat Santorum's disorganized campaign?

From 11 points behind last week, no.

Romney looks exceptionally good at the planning aspect, and he seems disciplined.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 07, 2012, 05:31:53 PM
Okay, so assuming that Obama's campaign is non-existent and doesn't spend any money and decides to go off message for days at time to attack John F. Kennedy for not being sufficiently pro-theocracy, Romney should be able to narrowly defeat him in November. Good plan guys!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 07, 2012, 05:50:07 PM
Romney looks exceptionally good at the planning aspect, and he seems disciplined.

Did you start inhaling again JJ?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on March 07, 2012, 06:02:06 PM
Quote
Yesterday probably helped Gingrich more than it helped him, and if Gingrich can nab Alabama and Mississippi next week, he could be on his way to replacing Santorum.

He finished third in Tennessee, third in Oklahoma and fourth (dead last), in Alaska and North Dakota.

He's done.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on March 07, 2012, 06:05:39 PM
Quote
And, tm, Santorum only got a dozen more delegates last night over the guy we want out because the guy we want out camped out in his home state and that happened to be the biggest delegate prize.

Exactly so. What's left out there for Newt? He's already conceded everything outside of the South. He conceded everything on Super Tuesday other than GA - because he knew losing GA meant that he was out.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 07, 2012, 06:19:22 PM
Romney looks exceptionally good at the planning aspect, and he seems disciplined.

Did you start inhaling again JJ?

Would you care to explain the 11 point gain in OH in one week?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 07, 2012, 06:21:28 PM
Quote
Yesterday probably helped Gingrich more than it helped him, and if Gingrich can nab Alabama and Mississippi next week, he could be on his way to replacing Santorum.

He finished third in Tennessee, third in Oklahoma and fourth (dead last), in Alaska and North Dakota.

He's done.

I don't know about "replacing" Santorum, but I expect Santorum to have a rough ten days or so.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 07, 2012, 06:23:00 PM
Romney looks exceptionally good at the planning aspect, and he seems disciplined.

Did you start inhaling again JJ?

Would you care to explain the 11 point gain in OH in one week?

Carpetbombing your opponents with negative ads?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Torie on March 07, 2012, 07:08:07 PM
Shouldn't you have reservations about Mitt Romney's ability to go up against Obama's machine if he can barely beat Santorum's disorganized campaign?

It depends how much it is due to flawed salesmanship, and how much to having to deal with an intractable wing of the party, with views that in a General are at once poor public policy and electoral suicide. The more it is the latter, the more the answer, is no, I for one don't have much concern. Most of the Pub Mittens resisters will be voting for him in the Fall. But flawed salesmanship is a more generic handicap, which would of course carry over as a problem in the General.

Make sense?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: patrick1 on March 07, 2012, 07:14:53 PM
Shouldn't you have reservations about Mitt Romney's ability to go up against Obama's machine if he can barely beat Santorum's disorganized campaign?

It depends how much it is due to flawed salesmanship, and how much to having to deal with an intractable wing of the party, with views that in a General are at once poor public policy and electoral suicide. The more it is the latter, the more the answer, is no, I for one don't have much concern. Most of the Pub Mittens resisters will be voting for him in the Fall. But flawed salesmanship is a more generic handicap, which would of course carry over as a problem in the General.

Make sense?

Can't it be both? 

I think it is obvious that Mitt is a poor salesman of himself.  People just don't like him.  Further, he needs that intractable wing to turn actually turn out in large numbers on election day. Bush despite his many shortcomings built his victories on being able to sell himself and large turnout of the base.   


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 07, 2012, 07:20:09 PM
Romney looks exceptionally good at the planning aspect, and he seems disciplined.

Did you start inhaling again JJ?

Would you care to explain the 11 point gain in OH in one week?

Carpetbombing your opponents with negative ads?

That needed planning and money, and it needed a local organization to work.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 07, 2012, 07:29:18 PM
Here's the other thing I love: "Hey, we were down by double digits and came back to win it!"

Uh. Ok. If it's bad that you barely won, why would you think that pointing out your past deficits is making a good point? Sure, you made it up but you should have never been in that position to begin with. At least not as supporters of Mr. Super Organized Electable Frontrunner.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on March 07, 2012, 08:03:20 PM
Quote
Mr. Super Organized Electable Frontrunner.

(*snort*)

Do people really think he's going to carry the counties that he's winning now vs the O?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 07, 2012, 08:05:26 PM
Here's the other thing I love: "Hey, we were down by double digits and came back to win it!"

Uh. Ok. If it's bad that you barely won, why would you think that pointing out your past deficits is making a good point? Sure, you made it up but you should have never been in that position to begin with. At least not as supporters of Mr. Super Organized Electable Frontrunner.

That's a bit like complaining that the archbishop didn't show up for the coronation.  

Since SC, I've expected a long race.

I never expected either Santorum or Romney to win IA or come in second.  The only time to shut the process down was SC.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 08, 2012, 01:50:07 AM
That needed planning and money, and it needed a local organization to work.

Then I guess Santorum was super organized when he came back from being 20 points down in Iowa and beat Mittens.
Or when Newt did the same thing in South Carolina.



Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 08, 2012, 02:12:38 AM
That needed planning and money, and it needed a local organization to work.

Then I guess Santorum was super organized when he came back from being 20 points down in Iowa and beat Mittens.
Or when Newt did the same thing in South Carolina.



Well, considering that Santorum had been actively campaigning in Iowa for months and Romney hadn't, no.  Santorum was never 20 points behind Romney in Iowa, BTW.

As for Newt, he just needed geography and CNN, though he played the second very well.  And let's not forget the endorsement from Perry.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 08, 2012, 02:41:59 AM
That needed planning and money, and it needed a local organization to work.

Then I guess Santorum was super organized when he came back from being 20 points down in Iowa and beat Mittens.
Or when Newt did the same thing in South Carolina.



Well, considering that Santorum had been actively campaigning in Iowa for months and Romney hadn't, no.  Santorum was never 20 points behind Romney in Iowa, BTW.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?fips=19

Quite a few polls from October and earlier in which Romney is 20 points ahead of Santorum.

And while Romney didn't campaign as much in Iowa as Santorum did, he did campaign there quite a bit in the month before the caucus, and massively outspent Santorum on TV ads, GOTV, etc.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 08, 2012, 03:03:09 AM
That needed planning and money, and it needed a local organization to work.

Then I guess Santorum was super organized when he came back from being 20 points down in Iowa and beat Mittens.
Or when Newt did the same thing in South Carolina.



Well, considering that Santorum had been actively campaigning in Iowa for months and Romney hadn't, no.  Santorum was never 20 points behind Romney in Iowa, BTW.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?fips=19

Quite a few polls from October and earlier in which Romney is 20 points ahead of Santorum.

And while Romney didn't campaign as much in Iowa as Santorum did, he did campaign there quite a bit in the month before the caucus, and massively outspent Santorum on TV ads, GOTV, etc.


None with a 20 point lead; much of the time, Romney was below 20 points.  And, in a caucus, it is the organization on the ground.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 08, 2012, 03:09:30 AM
That needed planning and money, and it needed a local organization to work.

Then I guess Santorum was super organized when he came back from being 20 points down in Iowa and beat Mittens.
Or when Newt did the same thing in South Carolina.



Well, considering that Santorum had been actively campaigning in Iowa for months and Romney hadn't, no.  Santorum was never 20 points behind Romney in Iowa, BTW.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?fips=19

Quite a few polls from October and earlier in which Romney is 20 points ahead of Santorum.

And while Romney didn't campaign as much in Iowa as Santorum did, he did campaign there quite a bit in the month before the caucus, and massively outspent Santorum on TV ads, GOTV, etc.


None with a 20 point lead; much of the time, Romney was below 20 points.  And, in a caucus, it is the organization on the ground.

CNN/Time poll: Oct. 25: Romney 24%, Santorum 2%
University of Iowa poll: Oct. 19: Romney 27% Santorum 3%
Marist College poll: Oct. 5: Romney 26% Santorum 3%

I could go on.  There are plenty to choose from.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 08, 2012, 03:09:50 AM
That needed planning and money, and it needed a local organization to work.

Then I guess Santorum was super organized when he came back from being 20 points down in Iowa and beat Mittens.
Or when Newt did the same thing in South Carolina.



Well, considering that Santorum had been actively campaigning in Iowa for months and Romney hadn't, no.  Santorum was never 20 points behind Romney in Iowa, BTW.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?fips=19

Quite a few polls from October and earlier in which Romney is 20 points ahead of Santorum.

And while Romney didn't campaign as much in Iowa as Santorum did, he did campaign there quite a bit in the month before the caucus, and massively outspent Santorum on TV ads, GOTV, etc.


None with a 20 point lead; much of the time, Romney was below 20 points.  And, in a caucus, it is the organization on the ground.

Dude, haven't you heard about quitting while your ass isn't whipped so bad that you can't sh*t? Seriously, you are now making as much sense as Sarah Palin during the Couric interviews.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Alcon on March 08, 2012, 04:26:01 AM
Five of those polls had Romney over +20 on Santorum.  Good lord, J. J.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Franzl on March 08, 2012, 05:57:09 AM
lol


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 08, 2012, 10:47:36 AM
Five of those polls had Romney over +20 on Santorum.  Good lord, J. J.

Alcon, that was the question.  How many show a 20 point lead for Romney over Santorum?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Franzl on March 08, 2012, 10:57:40 AM
Five of those polls had Romney over +20 on Santorum.  Good lord, J. J.

Alcon, that was the question.  How many show a 20 point lead for Romney over Santorum?

You have some reading comprehension problems...


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 08, 2012, 11:17:56 AM
Five of those polls had Romney over +20 on Santorum.  Good lord, J. J.

Alcon, that was the question.  How many show a 20 point lead for Romney over Santorum?

You have some reading comprehension problems...
That needed planning and money, and it needed a local organization to work.

Then I guess Santorum was super organized when he came back from being 20 points down in Iowa and beat Mittens.
Or when Newt did the same thing in South Carolina.



None.  Unless someone is suggesting Santorum was in negative numbers (and I'd like to see that), you can't get a 20 point lead for most of those polls.  Those polls where Romney was above 20 points, Santorum was also polling above zero. 

You want make the point that Santorum was 20 (actually 25) behind the leader, yes he was, but not Romney.  Romney was 15 points behind the leader as well (a different leader).


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Hash on March 08, 2012, 11:26:33 AM
MENSA admission standards are very low, it seems. I guess even Palin could get in.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 08, 2012, 11:28:57 AM
MENSA admission standards are very low, it seems. I guess even Palin could get in.

Definitely above the standards here.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 08, 2012, 11:36:08 AM
MENSA admission standards are very low, it seems. I guess even Palin could get in.

Definitely above the standards here.

Don'try to flatter yourself.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 08, 2012, 11:53:47 AM
MENSA admission standards are very low, it seems. I guess even Palin could get in.

Definitely above the standards here.

Don'try to flatter yourself.


Since you seem to think that there can be negative numbers on a poll, I'm not.  It isn't like debt; you can't have a negative number.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Franzl on March 08, 2012, 12:15:51 PM
CNN/Time poll: Oct. 25: Romney 24%, Santorum 2%
University of Iowa poll: Oct. 19: Romney 27% Santorum 3%
Marist College poll: Oct. 5: Romney 26% Santorum 3%

Alright, JJ....I'll explain it like I would in third grade so that even you will understand:

Let's take the first poll listed from CNN/Time. Romney is polling at 24%. Santorum is polling at 2%. The difference between 24 and 2 is GREATER than 20. Therefore, Santorum is MORE than 20 points behind Romney.

Repeat the same operation with the other polls, calculating the difference between Romney and Santorum, and you will find that in each of these examples, Santorum is trailing Romney by more than 20%.

Get it?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 08, 2012, 12:16:56 PM
You want make the point that Santorum was 20 (actually 25) behind the leader, yes he was, but not Romney.  Romney was 15 points behind the leader as well (a different leader).

What are you talking about?  In the CNN/Time poll from Oct. 25, for example, Romney is leading the poll, at 24%, ahead of all other candidates.  Santorum is at 2%.  Therefore Santorum is more than 20 points behind Romney, who is leading the poll.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Alcon on March 08, 2012, 12:49:02 PM
7/7/2011, Mason-Dixon: Romney 29%, Santorum 6% (-23%)
8/4/2011, Rasmussen: Romney 21%, Santorum 0% (-21%)
10/5/2011, Marist: Romney 26%, Santorum 3% (-23%)
10/19/2011, University of Iowa: Romney 27%, Santorum 3% (-24%)
10/25/2011, CNN/Time: Romney 24%, Santorum 2% (-22%)

Romney also led two of these polls.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on March 08, 2012, 01:00:38 PM
Quote
Repeat the same operation with the other polls, calculating the difference between Romney and Santorum, and you will find that in each of these examples, Santorum is trailing Romney by more than 20%.

Mind. Blown.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 08, 2012, 01:54:09 PM
Back to the numbers. Newt still sinking...

Romney - 37% (nc)
Santorum - 23% (nc)
Gingrich - 12% (-2)
Paul - 11% (nc)


Newt. Leave. Now.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 08, 2012, 01:59:35 PM
Romney > Santorum + Gingrich

:(


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 08, 2012, 02:05:32 PM

I imagine that won't be the case after tomorrow's release. Then imagine the numbers after Saturday (Kansas)...


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 08, 2012, 02:26:54 PM
CNN/Time poll: Oct. 25: Romney 24%, Santorum 2%
University of Iowa poll: Oct. 19: Romney 27% Santorum 3%
Marist College poll: Oct. 5: Romney 26% Santorum 3%

Alright, JJ....I'll explain it like I would in third grade so that even you will understand:

Let's take the first poll listed from CNN/Time. Romney is polling at 24%. Santorum is polling at 2%. The difference between 24 and 2 is GREATER than 20. Therefore, Santorum is MORE than 20 points behind Romney.

Repeat the same operation with the other polls, calculating the difference between Romney and Santorum, and you will find that in each of these examples, Santorum is trailing Romney by more than 20%.

Get it?

Okay, and was Romney leading at either of these points.

Also Alcon, I'm not sure that on some of those early ones, Santorum was campaigning or that Santorum was actually included.  It didn't show up, even as a zero, on some of the charts.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Franzl on March 08, 2012, 02:40:14 PM
7/7/2011, Mason-Dixon: Romney 29%, Santorum 6% (-23%)
8/4/2011, Rasmussen: Romney 21%, Santorum 0% (-21%)
10/5/2011, Marist: Romney 26%, Santorum 3% (-23%)
10/19/2011, University of Iowa: Romney 27%, Santorum 3% (-24%)
10/25/2011, CNN/Time: Romney 24%, Santorum 2% (-22%)

Romney also led two of these polls.

So much for the reading comprehension...J.J. .... ::)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 08, 2012, 02:58:30 PM
7/7/2011, Mason-Dixon: Romney 29%, Santorum 6% (-23%)
8/4/2011, Rasmussen: Romney 21%, Santorum 0% (-21%)
10/5/2011, Marist: Romney 26%, Santorum 3% (-23%)
10/19/2011, University of Iowa: Romney 27%, Santorum 3% (-24%)
10/25/2011, CNN/Time: Romney 24%, Santorum 2% (-22%)

Romney also led two of these polls.

So much for the reading comprehension...J.J. .... ::)

Okay, and another candidate (Bachman) was rising, so Santorum wasn't gaining on Romney.  Santorum increased in the polls, but Romney did not decline at the points Santorum did.  It wasn't Romney, which was my point.

Further, as noted in my original response, Romney didn't actively campaign in Iowa until the end.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Franzl on March 08, 2012, 03:06:59 PM
I give up. This is comparable to arguing over whether the Pope is Catholic.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Alcon on March 08, 2012, 03:07:21 PM
haha J. J.

The two polls with Romney leads were in October, well after the Bachmann surge.

Your claim again, was:

Quote
Santorum was never 20 points behind Romney in Iowa, BTW.

But, really, keep digging this hole, it's fantastic.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 08, 2012, 03:13:12 PM
haha J. J.

The two polls with Romney leads were in October, well after the Bachmann surge.

Your claim again, was:

Quote
Santorum was never 20 points behind Romney in Iowa, BTW.

But, really, keep digging this hole, it's fantastic.

I missed those two and was looking at the end.  Somebody was jumping up, I thought it was Bachman.  It could be Gingrich, but they are both the same color on my monitor. 


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Alcon on March 08, 2012, 03:17:16 PM
haha J. J.

The two polls with Romney leads were in October, well after the Bachmann surge.

Your claim again, was:

Quote
Santorum was never 20 points behind Romney in Iowa, BTW.

But, really, keep digging this hole, it's fantastic.

I missed those two and was looking at the end.  Somebody was jumping up, I thought it was Bachman.  

By Bachman, you mean Bachmann.

By two, you mean five.

By "Somebody was jumping up, I thought it was Bachman," you mean, "man, I really made myself look like a grade-A schmuck."


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 08, 2012, 03:43:14 PM
haha J. J.

The two polls with Romney leads were in October, well after the Bachmann surge.

Your claim again, was:

Quote
Santorum was never 20 points behind Romney in Iowa, BTW.

But, really, keep digging this hole, it's fantastic.

I missed those two and was looking at the end.  Somebody was jumping up, I thought it was Bachman.  

By Bachman, you mean Bachmann.

By two, you mean five.

By "Somebody was jumping up, I thought it was Bachman," you mean, "man, I really made myself look like a grade-A schmuck."

It looks like Bachmann.  No, by two, I mean two in October.

Now, If you want believe Santorum can, through good campaigning, jump up 20 points, which is what Lyndon was claim, feel free to believe it.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Franzl on March 08, 2012, 03:47:21 PM
Serious question: Do you even understand why you're being mocked in this thread?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Alcon on March 08, 2012, 04:02:46 PM
haha J. J.

The two polls with Romney leads were in October, well after the Bachmann surge.

Your claim again, was:

Quote
Santorum was never 20 points behind Romney in Iowa, BTW.

But, really, keep digging this hole, it's fantastic.

I missed those two and was looking at the end.  Somebody was jumping up, I thought it was Bachman.  

By Bachman, you mean Bachmann.

By two, you mean five.

By "Somebody was jumping up, I thought it was Bachman," you mean, "man, I really made myself look like a grade-A schmuck."

It looks like Bachmann.  No, by two, I mean two in October.

Now, If you want believe Santorum can, through good campaigning, jump up 20 points, which is what Lyndon was claim, feel free to believe it.

"It looks like Bachmann"?  you make so little sense

You evidently missed all five of the Romney +20 over Santorum polls, or you bizarrely think that behind "behind" someone requires that other person being ahead of all others.

Either way, you're ridiculous.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 08, 2012, 04:42:41 PM



"It looks like Bachmann"?  you make so little sense

The colors on the graph, Alcon.  On my monitor, they are the same for Bachmann and possibly Cain.  I can't tell, because one of the lines is not labeled. The peak on 10/17 is the same color as the Bachmann lines (though I think she was fading at that point).

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?fips=19

Quote
You evidently missed all five of the Romney +20 over Santorum polls, or you bizarrely think that behind "behind" someone requires that other person being ahead of all others.

Either way, you're ridiculous.

If you think as Lyndon thought, that Santorum increasing, while Romney increased, in IA, marks his good campaign skill relative to Romney, be my guest.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 08, 2012, 05:42:12 PM
If you think as Lyndon thought, that Santorum increasing, while Romney increased, in IA, marks his good campaign skill relative to Romney, be my guest.

Are you dyslexic, retarded or both?

No, I'm not you.  And I thank God for that.

Well, that's pretty obvious. I for one seem to have a much better grasp of the English language than you.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Franzl on March 08, 2012, 05:44:10 PM
If you think as Lyndon thought, that Santorum increasing, while Romney increased, in IA, marks his good campaign skill relative to Romney, be my guest.

Are you dyslexic, retarded or both?

No, I'm not you.  And I thank God for that.

Well, that's pretty obvious. I for one seem to have a much better grasp of the English language than you.

Although even being a Greek...in this case it doesn't mean a whole lot :)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Alcon on March 08, 2012, 09:55:25 PM



"It looks like Bachmann"?  you make so little sense

The colors on the graph, Alcon.  On my monitor, they are the same for Bachmann and possibly Cain.  I can't tell, because one of the lines is not labeled. The peak on 10/17 is the same color as the Bachmann lines (though I think she was fading at that point).

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?fips=19

Quote
You evidently missed all five of the Romney +20 over Santorum polls, or you bizarrely think that behind "behind" someone requires that other person being ahead of all others.

Either way, you're ridiculous.

If you think as Lyndon thought, that Santorum increasing, while Romney increased, in IA, marks his good campaign skill relative to Romney, be my guest.

Cain and Bachmann are the same colors.  Bachmann/Cainm, Santorum, and Romney are all totally different colors.  How would Cain/Bachmann distract you into thinking Romney is less than 20% ahead of Santorum? ???


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 08, 2012, 10:50:51 PM



"It looks like Bachmann"?  you make so little sense

The colors on the graph, Alcon.  On my monitor, they are the same for Bachmann and possibly Cain.  I can't tell, because one of the lines is not labeled. The peak on 10/17 is the same color as the Bachmann lines (though I think she was fading at that point).

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?fips=19

Quote
You evidently missed all five of the Romney +20 over Santorum polls, or you bizarrely think that behind "behind" someone requires that other person being ahead of all others.

Either way, you're ridiculous.

If you think as Lyndon thought, that Santorum increasing, while Romney increased, in IA, marks his good campaign skill relative to Romney, be my guest.

Cain and Bachmann are the same colors.  Bachmann/Cainm, Santorum, and Romney are all totally different colors.  How would Cain/Bachmann distract you into thinking Romney is less than 20% ahead of Santorum? ???

I was trying to read who was ahead and trying to track who was ahead.  I missed the lead where Bachmann/Cain dropped and Bachmann/Cain (okay the lavender line) bounced up.  It looked like Romney was never leading (from August) and Santorum was always getting something.  I didn't see Romney hitting 20 until 12/12-1/12.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 08, 2012, 11:19:49 PM
This reminds me of the argument as to whether the Wisconsin Dem primary in 2008 was "tightening", and makes one just as prone to want to bash their head into a wall.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 08, 2012, 11:21:06 PM
Arguing with J.J. is seriously one of the most pointless things on the planet. I argued with him once over something unrelated to politics and he insisting he was nailing me on a technicality when he wasn't. It made zero sense.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on March 08, 2012, 11:30:15 PM
At the rate this is going, there could soon be a huge hole in the argument that Gingrich dropping out would lead Santorum to come back and win the nomination. At this rate, even if all of Gingrich's supporters joined the Santorum camp, Romney would still hold a small lead.

Of course, there will probably be a decent chuck of the Gingrich vote that would go to Romney. Santorum will have to create a perfect storm in order to be able to come back and upset Romney.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 08, 2012, 11:50:21 PM
At the rate this is going, there could soon be a huge hole in the argument that Gingrich dropping out would lead Santorum to come back and win the nomination. At this rate, even if all of Gingrich's supporters joined the Santorum camp, Romney would still hold a small lead.

Of course, there will probably be a decent chuck of the Gingrich vote that would go to Romney. Santorum will have to create a perfect storm in order to be able to come back and upset Romney.

I think if Gingrich would drop out before Tuesday, it could give Santorum a clear win both AL and MS. 

Paul dropping out might be a minor boost for Romney, but I doubt if it make much of a difference.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 09, 2012, 12:05:27 AM
This reminds me of the argument as to whether the Wisconsin Dem primary in 2008 was "tightening", and makes one just as prone to want to bash their head into a wall.

That was classic.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Joe Republic on March 09, 2012, 03:21:34 AM
This reminds me of the argument as to whether the Wisconsin Dem primary in 2008 was "tightening", and makes one just as prone to want to bash their head into a wall.

url?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 09, 2012, 03:31:28 AM
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=70892.0

Hey my graph is still up:

()

J. J.'s argument was basically that the race was tightening and Hillary was having a surge by bringing up the shift from day 3 to day 4 (which were both from different companies openly using different methods) and ignoring absolutely everything else.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 09, 2012, 04:20:52 AM
I give up. This is comparable to arguing over whether the Pope is Catholic.
He absolutely is not. How dare you insinuate such a shameful thing.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Democratic Hawk on March 09, 2012, 02:05:30 PM
Mar. 4 - 8, 2012

Romney 35 (-2)
Santorum 24 (+1)
Gingrich 13 (+1)
Paul 11 (nc)



Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on March 09, 2012, 02:26:09 PM
Mar. 4 - 8, 2012

Romney 35 (-2)
Santorum 24 (+1)
Gingrich 13 (+1)
Paul 11 (nc)



Santomentum!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 09, 2012, 03:03:09 PM

I imagine that won't be the case after tomorrow's release. Then imagine the numbers after Saturday (Kansas)...

I will now accept my accolades.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on March 09, 2012, 03:03:42 PM
Congratulations, Phil.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 09, 2012, 03:28:26 PM
Mar. 4 - 8, 2012

Romney 35 (-2)
Santorum 24 (+1)
Gingrich 13 (+1)
Paul 11 (nc)



Santomentum!

And Newtmentum.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on March 09, 2012, 04:01:06 PM
Yeah, because all of Gingrich's supporters will go directly to the Santorum camp.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: © tweed on March 09, 2012, 04:08:48 PM
I love this post from the 08 JJ exchange

I'm not crazy about ARG or Zogby, but some of the other polls have been showing a tightening of the race.
  All the polls have show'd a basic 5-7 pt Obama lead. No tightening of what you speak.

Rasmussen's 'bots put it at 4 points last week.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=70545.0

His margin was larger, IIRC.  It looks like the race is tightening.  That doesn't mean a Clinton victory, but it does mean a closer race.

No. The last time Rasmussen had polled the race was exactly never.

The only pollster to have enough polls to constitute a trend is Strategic Vision, which gave:

Feb 2007: C+15
May 2007: C+13
July 2007: C+16
Sept 2007: C+22
Nov 2007: C+18
Dec 2007: C+7
Feb 2008: O+4

But, given how spread out the polls were, the earliest we can even really look at trends is starting from November.

As you know, I never look at one poll; I've been looking at the different polls out there, and it seems to be tightening.

...as if suggesting he has some sort of mystical proprietary method


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on March 12, 2012, 12:12:03 PM
Romney 34% (-2)
Santorum 25% (+1)
Gingrich 15%  (+1)

Romney's slide continues.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: CLARENCE 2015! on March 12, 2012, 02:23:09 PM
Very surprising... I thought most would consider it wrapped up by now


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on March 13, 2012, 12:04:41 PM
I was (sort of) joking yesterday about Romney's slide. But look at today:

Romney 32% (-2)
Santorum 27% (+2)
Gingrich 17% (+2)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 13, 2012, 12:30:27 PM
I was (sort of) joking yesterday about Romney's slide. But look at today:

Romney 32% (-2)
Santorum 27% (+2)
Gingrich 17% (+2)


Okay seriously, the trollishness of the GOP electorate (we're now on Rickmentum Mark III!) has made this the most hilarious/the best primary ever. Rick/Newt now about a 12 point (joint) edge over Mitt, he was tied with them right before Super Tuesday, right?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on March 13, 2012, 01:16:55 PM
My common sense keeps telling me Mitt is going to just keep pulling it out, but I just can't picture him giving an acceptance speech at the convention.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on March 13, 2012, 01:19:24 PM
My common sense keeps telling me Mitt is going to just keep pulling it out, but I just can't picture him giving an acceptance speech at the convention.
I've had two axioms for this primary season:
1. Mitt Romney can't win the nomination.
2. Nobody other than Mitt Romney can win the nomination.

Clearly, something will have to give here, but so far both my axioms are  looking good.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on March 13, 2012, 01:20:12 PM
I was (sort of) joking yesterday about Romney's slide. But look at today:

Romney 32% (-2)
Santorum 27% (+2)
Gingrich 17% (+2)


we will never hear the end from Keystone Phil if Romney wins the nomination yet ends up polling under Santorum in this poll's last poll.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 13, 2012, 01:24:44 PM
My common sense keeps telling me Mitt is going to just keep pulling it out, but I just can't picture him giving an acceptance speech at the convention.

Requiring an ever wider stretch of the imagination, can anyone really see?:

"I, Willard Milton Romney, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on March 13, 2012, 01:30:08 PM
There's just something amiss. I think it's his smile. They did a great job with every other physical feature, but that scrunch face casual smile (see NHI's signature if he still has it) is just... fail.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 13, 2012, 02:39:41 PM
Rick Santorum is the choice of this party. Step aside, Newt.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: © tweed on March 13, 2012, 02:41:48 PM
My common sense keeps telling me Mitt is going to just keep pulling it out, but I just can't picture him giving an acceptance speech at the convention.

the "I can't imagine Romney winning and I also can't imagine him not winning" was coined in January/early February.  don't remember who first said it.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 13, 2012, 05:17:35 PM
My common sense keeps telling me Mitt is going to just keep pulling it out, but I just can't picture him giving an acceptance speech at the convention.

Requiring an ever wider stretch of the imagination, can anyone really see?:

"I, Willard Milton Romney, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.
Unfortunately, that's not saying much.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 13, 2012, 05:41:18 PM
My common sense keeps telling me Mitt is going to just keep pulling it out, but I just can't picture him giving an acceptance speech at the convention.

Requiring an ever wider stretch of the imagination, can anyone really see?:

"I, Willard Milton Romney, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.

Yep.  I'm just wondering if I'll be invited to attend.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 15, 2012, 12:25:23 PM
God, I can't wait until the numbers are all from after March 13th...

Romney - 35% (+2)
Santorum - 27% (nc)
Gingrich - 15% (-1)
Paul - 10% (-1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: TomC on March 15, 2012, 02:24:05 PM
God, I can't wait until the numbers are all from after March 13th...

Romney - 35% (+2)
Santorum - 27% (nc)
Gingrich - 15% (-1)
Paul - 10% (-1)

Me too, though I keep thinking that the rest of the country usually doesn't follow the lead of Mississippi.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on March 15, 2012, 02:27:27 PM
You know the old saying. As goes American Somoa, so goes the nation


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 15, 2012, 02:45:13 PM
God, I can't wait until the numbers are all from after March 13th...

Romney - 35% (+2)
Santorum - 27% (nc)
Gingrich - 15% (-1)
Paul - 10% (-1)

Me too, though I keep thinking that the rest of the country usually doesn't follow the lead of Mississippi.

But the base of the GOP, on the other hand...  ;)

Seriously, that result could lead to an exodus of southerns from Planet Newt.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on March 15, 2012, 02:50:07 PM
You know the old saying. As goes American Somoa, so goes the nation

Yeah, David Axelrod's Twitter is great, it's just 24-7 Romney trolling. ;D


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on March 15, 2012, 03:16:41 PM
I didn't realize i was copying Axelrod. I dont follow him. Apparently losing to Hillary in Somoa in 2008 still stings.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on March 15, 2012, 03:17:23 PM
I didn't realize i was copying Axelrod. I dont follow him. Apparently losing to Hillary in Somoa in 2008 still stings.

The future is American Samoa!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on March 15, 2012, 03:19:41 PM
So, does Rick win flavor of the month for March too?

He's been flavor of the month in January, February and now March.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on March 16, 2012, 04:06:54 PM
Romney 36% (+1)
Santorum 28% (+1)
Gingrich 13% (-2)
Irrelevant 10% (nc)

Gingrich collapse and Santorum prolapse forthcoming.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on March 16, 2012, 06:35:06 PM
I am wondering if there really is no more momentum and we are just in for a long slog. Michigan seems to be the last 'game changer' where Romney's win pushed him back to the top here and on the RCP average. Since then we have had Super Tuesday, Kansas/Islands Saturday, and Southern/Hawaii Tuesday and nothing is really changing.

And Gallup's latest shows Newt dropping out wouldn't make much of a dent in Romney's lead. For Santorum to really change the dynamics, he has to do something surprising again (like when he swept 3 states in one day). It is hard to see when he could do that. Maybe winning PR and IL would shake things up, but it looks like he and Romney are going to be trading states from now until June and the national dynamic isn't going to change much.

Hopefully I'm wrong as it is getting boring


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Badger on March 17, 2012, 12:57:40 PM
Other than the last line, I agree with the previous post. It just doesn't seem likbe newt is dropping enough in numbers to drop out anytime (too) soon.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on March 17, 2012, 01:08:29 PM
I'd be interested to see a "national poll" of only states remaining.  It could be people in states which have already voted are tired of the charade and just want Romney to have it.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 19, 2012, 02:56:03 PM
Romney - 35% (-1)
Santorum - 29% (+1)
Gingrich - 13% (+1)
Paul - 10% (-1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on March 19, 2012, 02:59:29 PM
Romney - 35% (-1)
Santorum - 29% (+1)
Gingrich - 13% (+1)
Paul - 10% (-1)

Yay, i guess


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on March 19, 2012, 03:01:14 PM
I know other people have asked this, many times, but I just have to join in: WHO THE HELL are these 13%?!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on March 19, 2012, 03:07:10 PM
I know other people have asked this, many times, but I just have to join in: WHO THE HELL are these 13%?!

Gingrich's wives, mistresses, and their families.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Oakvale on March 19, 2012, 05:33:21 PM
WE ARE THE 13%.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Likely Voter on March 19, 2012, 07:49:43 PM
i suspect they are low information voters who havent kept up with what a complete failure Newt has been.



Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Bacon King on March 19, 2012, 09:05:28 PM
I know other people have asked this, many times, but I just have to join in: WHO THE HELL are these 13%?!

He's still a big hit among regular talk radio listeners, who hate Romney more than anything and also don't like Santorum. Maybe some partisan hacks who fondly remember him from 1994, and some idiots that actually believe the $2.50 gas shtick. It also helps Gingrich that he's still covered by the media like he's essentially even with Santorum.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on March 19, 2012, 09:08:39 PM
I know other people have asked this, many times, but I just have to join in: WHO THE HELL are these 13%?!

He's still a big hit among regular talk radio listeners, who hate Romney more than anything and also don't like Santorum. Maybe some partisan hacks who fondly remember him from 1994, and some idiots that actually believe the $2.50 gas shtick. It also helps Gingrich that he's still covered by the media like he's essentially even with Santorum.

How do you survive that garbage long term? I barely survived super Tuesday and the weekend before listening to that.


I much prefer listening to Peter Frampton, like I am right now. :P


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 19, 2012, 09:12:27 PM
Yeah, Newt's base has always been that group of old white guys that loved the battles with the Clintons throughout the 90s, listen to Rush and Co. religiously and remember 1994 like it was yesterday. Those types and the old party elites that will be loyal to Newt until he's officially gone make up the 13%.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ajb on March 20, 2012, 12:22:03 PM
Today's numbers:

Romney (34%) (-1)
Santorum (30%) (+1)
Gingrich (13%) (-)
Paul (10%) (-)


So much for Romney sealing the deal.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: fezzyfestoon on March 20, 2012, 01:34:00 PM
It'll be interesting to see what happens now that things are slowing down for a while. It looks as though Romney's peaks are getting more prolonged and he's bottoming out higher. Since Gingrich doesn't seem to want to get out anytime soon, Santorum's gonna have a hard time staying over Romney by enough to make a run for it. Romney's peaks come when there's indecision among the conservatives, which there will probably be a significant amount of as long as Gingrich takes up around 15%. If he stays there, Romney stays around 35% like he has been, and Paul stays around 10% (though it's not like his voters would go to anyone else anyway), that doesn't leave much room for Santorum to make much of a dent in Romney's lead. Without the momentum of more contests over the course of April, he's screwed. I can't imagine how Romney could lose at this point. Best case for Santorum is that if Romney doesn't get 50% Gingrich holds all the cards in a way, which is a scary thought. I'd almost rather Romney get the 50% of delegates than have that moron take charge of anything on any level.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: fezzyfestoon on March 21, 2012, 02:34:03 PM
Also today's numbers already put a giant damper on Santorum...

Romney - 37% (+3)
Santorum - 27% (-3)
Gingrich - 13% (nc)
Paul - 10% (nc)

Gallup's saying Gingrich's support splits 40% to Romney and 39% to Santorum.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on March 21, 2012, 03:40:51 PM
^^^ for that to happen in one day must mean Santorum dropped by about 10 points in last night's tracker.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: fezzyfestoon on March 22, 2012, 12:04:03 PM
Romney - 38% (+1)
Santorum - 27% (nc)
Gingrich - 14% (+1)
Paul - 9% (-1)

That makes for Romney up 6% from about a week ago, Santorum stagnant, and Paul and Gingrich deflated by 2-3%. 38% is also Romney's peak.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on March 22, 2012, 12:09:46 PM
Santorum is going to win LA, so Romney may drop yet again. And Ferris Wheel keeps on turnin'.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on March 22, 2012, 12:16:29 PM
Romney's probably won, but he's shown himself to be an awfully un-Presidential candidate in the process.  Its quite clear he has no intention of uniting the party and is just betting the other 62 percent to fall in line. Maybe they will, but I'm guessing we see more Dems casting their ballots than Republicans in 2012.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: fezzyfestoon on March 22, 2012, 12:19:04 PM
In my boredom, I also converted the numbers into a graph with our color scheme to see what's happening a little better. :)

()


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ilikeverin on March 22, 2012, 12:47:28 PM
In my boredom, I also converted the numbers into a graph with our color scheme to see what's happening a little better. :)

()

Very useful; thanks!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 22, 2012, 12:55:48 PM
In my boredom, I also converted the numbers into a graph with our color scheme to see what's happening a little better. :)

()

Great job fezzy. ;)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Hash on March 22, 2012, 04:56:24 PM
In retrospect, I find it quite amusing that Perry was having a pretty sustained surge in the days leading up to his withdrawal from the race.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: fezzyfestoon on March 22, 2012, 09:00:05 PM
In retrospect, I find it quite amusing that Perry was having a pretty sustained surge in the days leading up to his withdrawal from the race.

Yeah, I thought that was amusing, too.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: fezzyfestoon on March 23, 2012, 03:54:58 PM
Romney hits a milestone!

Romney - 40% (+2)
Santorum - 26% (-1)
Gingrich - 14% (nc)
Paul - 8% (-1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on March 23, 2012, 04:13:24 PM
Romney hits a milestone!

Romney - 40% (+2)
Santorum - 26% (-1)
Gingrich - 14% (nc)
Paul - 8% (-1)

With each piece of great news I despise that advisor more.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on March 23, 2012, 04:20:52 PM
Romney hits a milestone!

Romney - 40% (+2)
Santorum - 26% (-1)
Gingrich - 14% (nc)
Paul - 8% (-1)

Is that including etch a sketch?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: fezzyfestoon on March 23, 2012, 04:46:28 PM
I think it contains the beginnings of the Etch-a-Sketch fiasco. The poll dates were the 18th-22nd and I believe that happened on the 21st? Tomorrow will probably show a bigger effect if there is one.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: fezzyfestoon on March 23, 2012, 08:19:51 PM
Since the graph went over so well, here's an updated one of Romney vs. the anti-Romneys. I excluded Paul and Huntsman since neither ever challenged Romney, but Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, and Bachmann are included. Romney has led or tied them for a total of seven days throughout the polling process and has peaked today on his seventh day of leading or a tie at a 40-40 tie.

()

Also interesting is that the polled candidates combined for a new high of 88% in the last two days. They've bottomed out near 75% and averaged around 80% the entire time, dipping when the leading anti-Romney does. EXCEPT Santorum's plunge after his late February surge. I'm thinking that was the last of the surges considering the significantly lower amount of indecision in the polls...well, Gallup's at least. It's hard to keep myself from reading too much into one pollster's data when it's so extensive...and lonely haha

There also seems to be a stronger relationship between Romney's numbers and Gingrich's than Santorum's. I'll look into that more tomorrow.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Torie on March 24, 2012, 05:01:38 PM
Yes, I think Mittens is getting some of the Newt vote. When Newt falls into single digits, Mittens over-performs the 3 candidate demographic model vote share. That is my tentative thesis anyway.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on March 24, 2012, 10:07:49 PM
And it grows...

Romney - 42% (+2)
Santorum - 26% (nc)
Gingrich - 15% (+1)
Paul - 8% (nc)

It appears that undecideds are starting to break towards Romney. Based off this, 91% are now decided, compared to 88% a couple days ago.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: fezzyfestoon on March 25, 2012, 03:07:08 AM
Wow, nice...that's a pretty strong place for Romney to be. I think the 91% decided makes all the difference, even considering Louisiana. The post-LA polls will be pretty interesting though and probably very telling.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: CLARENCE 2015! on March 25, 2012, 03:40:09 AM
I doubt LA will change a thing... every opening line of every report mentions Romney has heavy delegate lead


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 25, 2012, 01:05:12 PM
Romney: 41%(-1)
Santorum: 26%(nc)
Gingrich: 13%(-2)
Paul: 8%(nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on March 26, 2012, 10:49:46 AM
Looks like etch a sketch was a flop. Romney has this, the people have spoken.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 26, 2012, 11:26:16 AM
Yup, they've spoken loud and clear:

()


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 26, 2012, 11:32:11 AM
Yup, they've spoken loud and clear:

()
Southerners are not real Americans. ;D


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on March 26, 2012, 12:29:19 PM
Yup, they've spoken loud and clear:

()

The south is always going to choose the more conservative candidate by default. Moving on.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 26, 2012, 12:29:57 PM
Romney - 39% (-2)
Santorum - 27% (+1)
Gingrich - 14% (+1)

They aren't bothering to post the troll from Texas' results on the main page.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 26, 2012, 12:30:21 PM
Louisiana SURGE!



Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on March 26, 2012, 12:33:31 PM
There was a surge after KS as well. Did it win Santorum IL...wait no, he didn't even manage to come within single digits. He has yet to win a (contested) primary outside of the south. Romney is the national candidate, Romney is the candidate for the GOP, and for America.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on March 26, 2012, 12:49:23 PM
Romney - 39% (-2)
Santorum - 27% (+1)
Gingrich - 14% (+1)

They aren't bothering to post the troll from Texas' results on the main page.
But they do report the just-as-boring Georgia Troll and the much better PA Troll.

Anti-Texan Racism, is all it is.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: fezzyfestoon on March 26, 2012, 04:13:17 PM
It's now been over a month since Santorum last held the lead.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 27, 2012, 01:12:06 PM
Romney - 39% (nc)
Santorum - 27% (nc)
Gingrich - 12% (-2)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Meeker on March 27, 2012, 01:50:33 PM
Does anyone want to take the time to calculate how much of the country, by population, has already had their opportunity to vote?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: RI on March 27, 2012, 01:56:23 PM
Does anyone want to take the time to calculate how much of the country, by population, has already had their opportunity to vote?

Of the 50 states and DC, 48.69% of the US population has had a chance to vote.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 28, 2012, 01:26:30 PM
Romney - 39% (nc)
Santorum - 28% (+1)
Gingrich - 11% (-1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Rowan on March 28, 2012, 02:59:31 PM
SURGE!!!!!!!


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: fezzyfestoon on March 29, 2012, 03:44:10 PM
Gingrich is in 4th!

Romney - 39% (nc)
Santorum - 28% (nc)
Paul - 11% (nc)
Gingrich - 10% (-1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: fezzyfestoon on March 29, 2012, 03:46:46 PM
In fact, Gingrich is full-on collapsing, down from 17% about two weeks ago.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on March 31, 2012, 08:26:52 AM
In fact, Gingrich is full-on collapsing, down from 17% about two weeks ago.
Do you think he'll go down to 1%? Every other not-Romney did after their surge (except Rick, but he's still Not-Romney of the Hour).


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on March 31, 2012, 12:45:07 PM
Wow, I get back and I love that Santorum map of LA.

Newt's well and truly done.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on March 31, 2012, 01:32:39 PM
Romney - 42% (+3)
Santorum - 27% (-1)
Gingrich - 11% (+1)
Paul - 10% (-1)

I think there was a day that wasn't included, so the change from the last poll is for 2 days, not just one.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on March 31, 2012, 01:42:58 PM
Do you guys think Mitt will break 50%, and if so, when?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on March 31, 2012, 01:47:37 PM
Not unless Newt backers foist Mitt on the party just to Spite Santorum.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: jmc247 on March 31, 2012, 07:06:05 PM
Do you guys think Mitt will break 50%, and if so, when?

Yes, within 10 days of winning on April 3rd. According to the NY Times today a whole bunch of the establishment that were waiting for the 'right time' will jump off the fense are planning to do so if Romney wins as expected on April 3rd. Alot of the media are tired of the horse race as well and are ready to crown a winner so they can get on with the general.

If he stays above 50% I do think will be up to if Newt gets out or not otherwise he goes above 50% and then I think he dips back into the mid to upper 40% range until after the April 24th races.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on March 31, 2012, 07:46:21 PM
I've gotten two Santorum fundraising e-mails today.  I think he might be having cash flow problems.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: jmc247 on March 31, 2012, 07:51:15 PM
I've gotten two Santorum fundraising e-mails today.  I think he might be having cash flow problems.

The big donors are almost certainly drying up. They don't invest on lost causes. The rank and file money is probably starting to dry up as well.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: jmc247 on April 02, 2012, 01:53:15 PM
Romney - 43% (+1)
Santorum - 25% (-2)
Gingrich - 11% (nc)
Paul - 10% (nc)

Gallup for Mar 30-Apr 1, 2012

We may finally see a candidate go over 50% this week.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: fezzyfestoon on April 02, 2012, 10:03:41 PM
Romney's up 7% on Santorum+Gingrich, his highest yet. He reached a 5% lead in January for one day. The anti-Romneys have only been below 37% (they are now at 36%) once since before Gingrich's second surge.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: jmc247 on April 03, 2012, 08:36:32 AM
Romney's up 7% on Santorum+Gingrich, his highest yet. He reached a 5% lead in January for one day. The anti-Romneys have only been below 37% (they are now at 36%) once since before Gingrich's second surge.

Romney does have the first real stable momentum he has gotten in the race so far. Him decisively winning tonight and then as the NYTimes has said much of the rest of the party establishment who have been waiting plan to come out to endorse Romney if he wins WI this week will finally allow momentum to trump demographics in this race.

I believe my prediction of Romney going over 50% in the next ten days is still on track.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on April 03, 2012, 09:29:53 AM
He still has 2.5 million cash on hand. Wishful thinking?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 04, 2012, 09:33:52 PM
Well...

Romney - 40% (-3)
Santorum - 25% (nc)
Paul - 12% (+2)
Gingrich - 11% (nc)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 05, 2012, 08:17:04 AM
Well...

Romney - 40% (-3)
Santorum - 25% (nc)
Paul - 12% (+2)
Gingrich - 11% (nc)

lol Mitt


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: fezzyfestoon on April 05, 2012, 12:44:45 PM
What the...

Romney - 39% (-1)
Santorum - 26% (+1)
Paul - 12% (nc)
Gingrich - 10% (-1)


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: ilikeverin on April 05, 2012, 01:43:05 PM
What the...

Romney - 39% (-1)
Santorum - 26% (+1)
Paul - 12% (nc)
Gingrich - 10% (-1)

With this race, it pays to just ignore the fact that there are facts and whatnot.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on April 05, 2012, 01:50:30 PM
What the...

Romney - 39% (-1)
Santorum - 26% (+1)
Paul - 12% (nc)
Gingrich - 10% (-1)

Bad sample?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 05, 2012, 01:52:46 PM
Nah, everything is going exactly according to Mitt Romney's plan. He's following a "slow and steady" strategy and is currently on course to finally reach 100% support with Republican voters some time in late 2015, setting him up strongly for the 2016 primaries.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Keystone Phil on April 05, 2012, 02:19:07 PM
Every time we hear about the party rallying around Mitt, a little bit of sense smacks voters in the face...


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: King on April 05, 2012, 03:43:48 PM
Mitt over 50 they said.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: jmc247 on April 06, 2012, 05:31:21 PM
Quote
Mitt over 50 they said.

I said I guessed within 10 days after the April 3rd elections that he would hit 50% and then drop down back into the 40s basically the 50 would be a suger rush from the victories.

Given Romney was at 43% at the time I said it a 7 point short term boost from three big victories that were about to happen wasn't some wild far out guess and we still don't know if Romney's sudden large polling drop here wasn't simply a really bad sample. We should know next week.
 
Today's sample

Romney 41% (+2)
Santorum 25% (-1)
Paul 12% (nc)
 


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: argentarius on April 06, 2012, 05:36:04 PM
There's a very decent chance Romney could hit 50 by the thirteenth.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 07, 2012, 04:33:56 AM
I find it somewhat unlikely - though possible -  that Romney will get to 50 before this primary season is effectively over unless Gingrich and/or Paul drop out before that point (but that is in itself unlikely). Seems to be beyond his ceiling, frankly.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Ben Romney on April 09, 2012, 07:08:59 PM
Romney: 42%
Santorum: 25%
Paul: 11%
Gingrich: 09%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Eraserhead on April 09, 2012, 11:51:36 PM
And they're still bothering with this poll why?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: America First on April 10, 2012, 03:13:33 AM
And they're still bothering with this poll why?
Cause if you look beyond the lamestream media narrative, there could easily be a brokered convention and Romney isn't the surefire winner that they make him out to be.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on April 10, 2012, 08:22:16 AM
And they're still bothering with this poll why?
Cause if you look beyond the lamestream media narrative, there could easily be a brokered convention and Romney isn't the surefire winner that they make him out to be.
But he's almost certainly going to be.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: tmthforu94 on April 10, 2012, 11:18:46 AM
The race is over. Gingrich has all but dropped out and endorsed Romney - he's only in to help influence the party platform.

Today's Numbers:
Romney: 44% (+2)
Santorum: 25% (nc)
Paul: 13% (+2)
Gingrich: 10% (+1)

92% of Republicans have made up their mind. That may be the highest number yet.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: CLARENCE 2015! on April 10, 2012, 11:26:38 AM
I agree


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: memphis on April 10, 2012, 11:29:39 AM
The race is over. Gingrich has all but dropped out and endorsed Romney - he's only in to help influence the party platform.

Today's Numbers:
Romney: 44% (+2)
Santorum: 25% (nc)
Paul: 13% (+2)
Gingrich: 10% (+1)

92% of Republicans have made up their mind. That may be the highest number yet.
So nearly everybody has made up his mind, but Romney is still only at 44% With all the delegate math as it is. What does that tell you?


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on April 10, 2012, 12:03:21 PM
The race is over. Gingrich has all but dropped out and endorsed Romney - he's only in to help influence the party platform.

Today's Numbers:
Romney: 44% (+2)
Santorum: 25% (nc)
Paul: 13% (+2)
Gingrich: 10% (+1)

92% of Republicans have made up their mind. That may be the highest number yet.
So nearly everybody has made up his mind, but Romney is still only at 44% With all the delegate math as it is. What does that tell you?

As if Romney is actually at 44%. Do you really think the majority of the Ron Paul vote would go to any of the other candidates? Most of them are people who wouldn't be voting otherwise, so when you adjust the numbers Romney is at or near 50%.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 10, 2012, 12:06:32 PM
So, when you ignore an entire segment of the party, the presumptive nominee barely breaks a majority support against two crazy people who have no shot of winning. Gotcha.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on April 10, 2012, 12:07:31 PM
So, when you ignore an entire segment of the party, the presumptive nominee barely breaks a majority support against two crazy people who have no shot of winning. Gotcha.

A segment of the party that the majority of which would not be voting if their candidate was not running.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: jmc247 on April 10, 2012, 01:49:16 PM
There's a very decent chance Romney could hit 50 by the thirteenth.

It looks like my prediction will come to pass assuming Gallup still keeps track of the primary numbers.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Frodo on April 11, 2012, 06:35:17 AM
Now that Rick Santorum has dropped out, can we close this board now? There really is no point in keeping track of primary polls at this point. 


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: minionofmidas on April 11, 2012, 07:07:01 AM
I find it somewhat unlikely - though possible -  that Romney will get to 50 before this primary season is effectively over unless Gingrich and/or Paul drop out before that point (but that is in itself unlikely). Seems to be beyond his ceiling, frankly.
Ought to have listed Santorum as well. :(


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 11, 2012, 07:09:47 AM
Now that Rick Santorum has dropped out, can we close this board now? There really is no point in keeping track of primary polls at this point. 

Sheesh, what's with people wanting to shut down boards (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=151821.0) all of a sudden?  If pollsters want to keep taking primary polls, and people want to keep posting them here, why not let them?  There's no reason to close the board.

Besides, the twilight of the 2008 primary polls board was a time of great introspection.

I want to run through wildflowers in soft-focus with Dick Bennett

Let's not stop people from posting stuff like that here.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: J. J. on April 11, 2012, 09:34:29 AM
Now that Rick Santorum has dropped out, can we close this board now? There really is no point in keeping track of primary polls at this point. 

I think we wait a few weeks and see how it shakes out.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: jmc247 on April 11, 2012, 03:09:12 PM
Now that Rick Santorum has dropped out, can we close this board now? There really is no point in keeping track of primary polls at this point. 

I think we wait a few weeks and see how it shakes out.

Gallup ended their primary polls today and will from here on out focus on the general election. I am a bit dissapointed as I was hoping to see how Santorum's supporters break. But, hopefully other polls will show us in a few days time.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on April 13, 2012, 01:56:04 PM
We're not breaking. Die, Newt, Die.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Badger on April 15, 2012, 10:31:59 AM
Now that Rick Santorum has dropped out, can we close this board now? There really is no point in keeping track of primary polls at this point. 

Sheesh, what's with people wanting to shut down boards (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=151821.0) all of a sudden?  If pollsters want to keep taking primary polls, and people want to keep posting them here, why not let them?  There's no reason to close the board.

Besides, the twilight of the 2008 primary polls board was a time of great introspection.

I want to run through wildflowers in soft-focus with Dick Bennett

Let's not stop people from posting stuff like that here.


We should probably at least unstickie the thred.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on April 17, 2012, 12:59:14 AM
Like I said, Santorum supporters ain't breaking for Newt. It's over. I have Newt down by 10 in TX.


Title: Re: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
Post by: Tender Branson on April 17, 2012, 01:04:01 AM
I'm unstickying this, because Gallup doesn't update anymore.