Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: RogueBeaver on December 10, 2011, 08:54:11 PM



Title: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 10, 2011, 08:54:11 PM
Since we have a Quebec thread up... figured might as well start this one. Earlier this week the Alberta Legislature enacted a fixed-date elections law mandating an election between March 1- June 1.

Latest polls have the PCs up 51-19 on Wildrose, with the Grits and Dippers back at 13-14% apop.

Personally, I find the idea of another PC mandate loathsome. But it looks like the dynasty will survive another 4 years- when they should be wiped off the electoral map.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on December 11, 2011, 05:31:54 AM
Ahhh my favorite Canadian province where the two main parties are a choice between Conservative and even more Conservative.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on December 11, 2011, 06:18:31 AM
I've put together a map of Alberta provincial ridings, following the 2010 redistribution.

I was thinking of trying to calculate notional margins but I would prefer someone else to - I'm still going with the new Quebec map and I'd like to prioritise that rather than estimate margins. I'm particularly interested in Northeastern Calgary - it looks to me like some of the more Liberal polls have been split up and may reduce the margin or flip them to PC. I think the NDP may notionally pick up an Edmonton riding off PC, too.

Anyway, hopefully everyone will find this blank base map of Alberta provincial riding boundaries helpful. As always, there is a bigger version in the blank map gallery.

Alberta Provincial Election Map

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Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on December 11, 2011, 06:28:25 AM
Here are maps showing the 2008 Alberta provincial election results. I'm posting from my mobile, so I'll apologise in advance for spreading them over several posts. Again, they're all uploaded into the gallery, so bigger versions in there.

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results Map

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Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on December 11, 2011, 06:33:39 AM
2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - Winning Margins

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Bigger version in the gallery. The redistribution obviously changes some of the riding boundaries.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 11, 2011, 06:37:02 AM
Looks like a boring election ahead.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on December 11, 2011, 06:43:12 AM
2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results Map - PC Primary Vote

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Bigger version in the gallery.

Some of the strongest results for the Progressive Conservative Party were in rural ridings outside Edmonton, I don't think Wildrose contested those ridings, but I could be wrong - we'll see in another few maps.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on December 11, 2011, 06:47:47 AM
The Liberal Party won the second-most seats in the legislature at the 2008 election:

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - Liberal Primary Vote

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Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on December 11, 2011, 06:51:31 AM
The NDP won two seats in Edmonton:

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - NDP Primary Votes

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Again, a bigger version is in the gallery.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on December 11, 2011, 06:56:54 AM
The Wildrose Alliance didn't run in every seat, but still performed reasonably well. Since the election, there have been a few defections from the PC Party to the Wildrose Alliance.

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results Map - WRA Primary Vote

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Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on December 11, 2011, 07:01:01 AM
2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - Greens Primary Vote

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Bigger version in the gallery (again).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 11, 2011, 12:36:43 PM
Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 11, 2011, 12:43:12 PM
Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.

No kidding. To be fair, except for Ralph Klein's first two terms, they've never really been all that big on the noun.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 11, 2011, 01:12:28 PM
Klien was an Alberta Liberal back when he was Mayor of Calgary. Calgary, in fact, is much more moderate than people think. It's been tainted by the MP's it elects - and even then, half of them were born in Toronto.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 11, 2011, 02:44:18 PM
Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.

Wait wait what ?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hash on December 11, 2011, 02:48:44 PM
Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.

Wait wait what ?

It was deregistered after the last election for not doing some financial paperwork thingees


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 11, 2011, 02:51:07 PM
Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.

Wait wait what ?

It was deregistered after the last election for not doing some financial paperwork thingees

Oh God. For a few seconds I thought Albertans were even crazier than I've been told. ;D


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 11, 2011, 03:01:17 PM
Thats why I like phrasing it like that :D


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: MaxQue on December 11, 2011, 05:14:11 PM
They got in intense infringing (some group tried to take over leadership), which led to a two years long fight which paralysed the party for two years and saw most members leaving and most of the leadership resigning.

It was so paralysed than it asked to be unregisted when the executive of the party saw they would be unable to fill the annual reports requested by law.

They can attempt to recreate themselves (and probably will) after next election.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on December 11, 2011, 05:48:07 PM
It's for the best; if a province ever needed a "united left", it's Alberta.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on December 11, 2011, 06:38:23 PM
I'll fix the new map to reflect Wildrose = green and Greens = doesn't exist, when I'm back from holidays after New Year's (minimal access to a computer in the interim).

I remember that about the Greens now, I was reading that their President at the time is now a Wildrose candidate...


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 11, 2011, 10:59:29 PM
Aye

The Green Party of Ontario and the Green Party of Canada had their own "war" back in the 90's that started very slowly. The GPC was more left wing and the GPO very slowly started to move to the right.

Over the next decade, those who agreed with the GPO took over really. GPC is now in line with the GPO (which itself has not moved) and GPBC has perhaps outdone GPO in right-wingidness. The only truly left-wing Greens left are the GPSK.

The long-story-short of the Alberta story was an attempt by the Eco Capitalists to take the party over from the Socialists, but the gulf between them was much larger than in other Green Parties in Canada. IIRC the party would have went from the most left-wing to the most right-wing Green Party in all of Canada. One half walked out of the convention, taking the chair of said meeting with them, and the other half continued with someone as chair who'd not renewed their membership, and this caused chaos. Eventually the party lost it's status. The leftos are creating their own "movement" which may or may not run candidates, while the righties are running for parties like Wildrose.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on December 11, 2011, 11:51:30 PM
Heh. Somehow I dont see the Wild Rose party to be too perceptive of any type of environmentalism.  Isn't their leader a climate change denier?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: DL on December 12, 2011, 12:54:12 PM
It's for the best; if a province ever needed a "united left", it's Alberta.

Would the Alberta PCs under Redford be part of a "united left" in Alberta?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 24, 2011, 12:09:55 PM
Progressives on track for another majority.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/12/23/alison-redford-alberta-poll_n_1166255.html?ref=canada-politics


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 24, 2011, 02:32:46 PM
What's up with the polling for the "others"? are these Green votes? Why so many? Who else do they want to vote for? Did they mid up the name on the newly named Wildrose party with their former name as the Alliance? This is confusing for me.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on December 24, 2011, 02:47:13 PM
Ugh, linking to an Eric Grenier link... I think there should be rules against such things.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 26, 2011, 06:48:44 PM
Peter Lougheed was sworn in, Sep 10th 1971

George A. Drew, from the Ontario PC Party, was sworn in August 17th 1943, and his party held power until the resignation (after losing an election) of Premier Miller on June 26th 1985. Some of these were minority governments.

Quebec Liberal Premier Marchand was sworn in on the 24th of May, 1897, and Liberal Godbout resigned after losing an election on August 28th 1936.

These are some of the longest lasting political dynasties in Canada. Even Alberta's Social Credit government did not last this long.

The Ontario PC dynasty lasted for 41 years, 10 months, 9 days, or, 15,289 days.

The Quebec Liberal dynasty, lasted 39 years, 3 months, 4 days, or, 14,340 days.

The current Alberta dynasty is 40 years, 3 months, 16 days old, or, 14,717 days.

Nova Scotia, however, puts all of this to shame. On August 3rd 1883, William T Pipes became Premier, and this dynasty did not end until the election loss of Premier Armstrong, following which he resigned on July 16th, 1925. This is 41 years, 11 months, and 13 days, or, 15,322 days. Not that much you say?

Let me do a quick *reverse* calculation, from pre-Stanfield Nova Scotia. Starting with Stanfield became Premier, and ending (or reverse) at the first post-confederation election, a period passed of 89 years, 1 months, 13 days. A total of 32,551 days. Now we add two period. October 22 1878 to July 18 1882, as well as July 16 1925 to September 5 1933. This is 2973 days plus 1365 days, or, a total of 4338, which leaves a remainder of 28,213. Why is this important?
For 28,213 days, out of 32,551 days, the Nova Scotia Liberals held a majority government. 86.6% of a full 89 years, spent with one party holding a Majority. Now that's a dynasty that won't be easy to beat.

Regardless.
If the PC Party retains a majority on Thursday, August 22, 2013, they will beat the record for the longest lasting unbroken government in Canada.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Colbert on December 27, 2011, 07:59:12 PM
some news about social credit party?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 27, 2011, 08:46:00 PM
some news about social credit party?

1935-1971 under 3 premiers. William Aberhart (1935-1943), Ernest Manning (1943-1968), Harry Strom (1968-1971).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on December 27, 2011, 10:19:15 PM
some news about social credit party?
No? Should there be? They are useless.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 24, 2012, 02:00:28 PM
Flanagan will run the Wildrose campaign.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tom-flanagan-to-run-wildrose-campaign-in-alberta-election/article2312499/


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on January 24, 2012, 03:56:45 PM
A great strategist who will be able to maximise the Wildrose vote. His close relationship with Harper also sends a message to blue tories which party they should support.

On my phone at the moment, anyone got those poll details referred to in the article? I note it's Forum, and mentions PC and Wildrose vote levels, and mentions the NDP is up, but doesn't give actual figures for them and the Liberals.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 24, 2012, 04:12:15 PM
PC 38, Wildrose 29, Liberal 14, NDP 13. I saw a seat projection somewhere, all I remember is that PCs would win 57/87, down 9 from their current 66. Trying to find it now...


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on January 24, 2012, 04:24:58 PM
Those projected totals were also in the article, mate. I just trust Teddy and Earl more.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 24, 2012, 04:31:27 PM
As do I. So much attack ad material for Wildrose to use...


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on January 24, 2012, 04:46:35 PM
As do I. So much attack ad material for Wildrose to use...

Indeed. I note Redford's approvals/disapprovals are a mere +1.

It's interesting the Liberals have pulled back ahead of the NDP in the poll. Inside MOE and all that but still interesting nonetheless.

I wish we had some notional figures of the last election but in the new/redistributed seats. Do we have a Krago version of the Bat Signal?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 21, 2012, 03:13:33 PM
Update: While the popular vote wildly fluctuates, the Progs are still projected to win another landslide.

Oh, and they also happen to be corrupt.

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/politics/archives/2012/02/20120221-123135.html


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on February 21, 2012, 03:30:37 PM
Sponsorship Scandal, the sequel? They could title it "Gomery Goes to Edmonton"


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 21, 2012, 03:36:54 PM
Somewhat like Rick Perry's administration. Pay-to-play, abuse of eminent domain, shady (in this case illegal) fundraising, etc. PCs have been involved in this sort of crap for years but only recently did they get a real opposition. At this rate Smith's best bet is to go for an "you had an option, ma'am" if they hold a debate. Plus the Progs are embarking on yet another spending orgy for electoral purposes as we speak.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 21, 2012, 03:42:36 PM
Latest numbers are PC 38, Wildrose 30, NDP/Grits 14. Translated that means the PCs gain seats, but Wildrose forms OO. GAH.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 08, 2012, 02:57:55 PM
PCs run an attack ad. The Progs are just as nannyish as Dad, no wonder she's BFF with him.

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/politics/archives/2012/03/20120308-100835.html


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on March 09, 2012, 03:01:24 AM
Latest numbers are PC 38, Wildrose 30, NDP/Grits 14. Translated that means the PCs gain seats, but Wildrose forms OO. GAH.

What's wrong with two conservative parties leading the province?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 09, 2012, 10:49:08 AM
Latest numbers are PC 38, Wildrose 30, NDP/Grits 14. Translated that means the PCs gain seats, but Wildrose forms OO. GAH.

What's wrong with two conservative parties leading the province?

There's nothing conservative about the Progressives.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on March 09, 2012, 04:37:16 PM
Latest numbers are PC 38, Wildrose 30, NDP/Grits 14. Translated that means the PCs gain seats, but Wildrose forms OO. GAH.

What's wrong with two conservative parties leading the province?

There's nothing conservative about the Progressives.

The Wildrosers can still pull out a win.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 09, 2012, 04:54:05 PM
Latest numbers are PC 38, Wildrose 30, NDP/Grits 14. Translated that means the PCs gain seats, but Wildrose forms OO. GAH.

What's wrong with two conservative parties leading the province?

There's nothing conservative about the Progressives.



The Wildrosers can still pull out a win.

I hope, but not very hopeful ATM.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 11, 2012, 04:51:40 PM
Dissolution in a few weeks.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Tory%2Bwoes%2Bdelay%2Belection%2Bcall/6284271/story.html


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 11, 2012, 08:22:52 PM
The election has to be held before Jan 1


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 11, 2012, 08:28:28 PM
The election has to be held before Jan 1

You mean June 1. Redford said dissolution will follow the budget (just like Quebec), so within a month the campaign should kick off. I'm not very hopeful about the corrupt Progs being booted, or even their majority being substantially dented.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 11, 2012, 08:31:39 PM
The election has to be held before Jan 1

You mean June 1. Redford said dissolution will follow the budget (just like Quebec), so within a month the campaign should kick off. I'm not very hopeful about the corrupt Progs being booted, or even their majority being substantially dented.

Oops, yes. I hope they wait until after the NDP leadership race.

(still hoping Smid makes the redistributed results)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on March 11, 2012, 08:42:50 PM
I'll try to do them in time!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 11, 2012, 09:30:33 PM

Excellent. What does "in time" mean? Before the election, or before the writ drops? ;)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on March 12, 2012, 02:38:44 AM
Hoping to finish them by the election, but no guarantees. Moving house soon to much further out so my travel time will increase and I'll have less time to put into this. Also got a big work-related election mapping project (almost finished, but probably another week or two to go on it). I'll try to finish it by the election, though.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 12, 2012, 09:55:12 AM
Oh. Darn. Well, better than nothing.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on March 12, 2012, 10:05:33 PM
A few estimates... Not terribly scientific since in some cases polls at the last election were split between two different ridings, so in some cases I've had a guess at transferring voters. If you find different estimates of notional results on any other site or by anyone else (eg. Krago), use those figures instead.

Airdrie
PC - 5,746 (62.52%)
Lib - 1,158 (12.6%)
NDP - 470 (5.11%)
Wildrose - 1,370 (14.91%)
Greens - 446 (4.85%)
Informal Votes - 19

Bonnyville - Cold Lake
doesn't seem to have changed boundaries.

Cardston - Taber - Warner
gains a reservation from Livingstone - Macleod (4,106 voters, 40 Liberal votes, 7 PC votes). No further changes. With such a low turnout in the area transferred in, I didn't transfer any declaration votes.
PC - 4,381 (45.86%)
Lib - 476 (4.98%)
NDP - 190 (1.99%)
Wildrose - 4,325 (45.28%)
Greens - 180 (1.88%)
Informal - 14

Dunvegan - Central Peace
had some very minor changes to the Eastern boundary, near the Northern boundary. I don't think that makes any difference to the overall result.

Fort McMurray - Conklin
PC - 1,963 (61.54%)
Lib - 810 (25.39%)
NDP - 267 (8.37%)
Greens - 150 (4.7%)
Informal Votes - 13 (0.41%)

Fort McMurray - Wood Buffalo
PC - 2,547 (65.19%)
Lib - 931 (23.83%)
NDP - 281 (7.19%)
Greens - 148 (3.79%)
Informal Votes - 11 (0.28%)

Lethbridge East
PC - 5,104 (39.76%)
Lib - 5,819 (45.33%)
NDP - 753 (5.87%)
Wildrose - 827 (6.44%)
Greens - 333 (2.59%)
Informal Votes - 59 (0.46%)

Lethbridge West
PC - 4,613 (43.36%)
Lib - 3,785 (35.58%)
NDP - 1,113 (10.46%)
Wildrose - 776 (7.29%)
Greens - 351 (3.3%)
Informal Votes - 37 (0.35%)

Little Bow
PC - 5,509 (59.05%)
Lib - 1,105 (11.84%)
NDP - 337 (3.61%)
Wildrose - 2,095 (22.45%)
Greens - 284 (3.04%)
Informal Votes - 22 (0.24%)

Peace River
had some minor transfers from Dunvegan - Central Peace, but not enough to be able to estimate a changed margin.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on March 13, 2012, 12:09:19 AM
Remembering... very tentative estimates.

Edmonton - Beverley - Clareview
PC - 4,487 (37.76%)
Lib - 2,128 (17.91%)
NDP - 4,464 (37.57%)
Wildrose - 343 (2.89%)
Greens - 223 (1.88%)
Independent - 193 (1.62%)
Social Credit - 45 (0.38%)
Informal Votes - 36 (0.3%)
The greatest difference between PC and NDP votes, favouring PC, was in the northern polls and proportion of declaration votes transferred from polls in Edmonton - Manning. It could be assumed that the NDP vote may have been higher had the contest in that riding been PC vs NDP, and therefore some of those Liberal votes may have shifted from the Liberal column to the NDP column (ie. strategic voting) and may well have closed the 23 vote gap between PC and NDP. This is all speculative, however.

Edmonton Centre
PC - 3,268 (29.41%)
Lib - 5,006 (45.05%)
NDP - 2,133 (19.19%)
Wildrose - 199 (1.79%)
Greens - 466 (4.19%)
Alberta Party - 41 (0.37%)
Informal Votes - 78 (0.7%)

Edmonton - Highlands - Norwood
PC - 2,640 (28.67%)
Lib - 1,872 (20.33%)
NDP - 4,206 (45.68%)
Wildrose - 176 (1.91%)
Greens - 313 (3.4%)
Alberta Party - 1 (0.01%)
Informal Votes - 35 (0.38%)

Edmonton - Manning
PC - 3,674 (36.75%)
Lib - 2,093 (20.94%)
NDP - 1,867 (18.68%)
Wildrose - 218 (2.18%)
Greens - 211 (2.11%)
Independent - 1,933 (19.34%)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on March 13, 2012, 01:50:10 AM
Still just estimates.

Calgary - Bow
PC - 7,615 (55.72%)
Lib - 3,789 (27.72%)
NDP - 400 (2.93%)
Wildrose - 1,208 (8.84%)
Greens - 591 (4.32%)
Social Credit - 64 (0.47%)
Informal - 39

The area transferred from Foothills - Rocky View to Calgary - Bow did not appear to have any streets constructed yet, and therefore I did not transfer any voters between the two ridings.

Calgary - McCall
PC - 2,869 (42.66%)
Lib - 2,939 (43.7%)
NDP - 210 (3.12%)
WR - 400 (5.95%)
GRN - 307 (4.57%)
Informal - 35

Calgary - West
PC - 5,345 (49.34%)
Lib - 3,437 (31.73%)
NDP - 196 (1.81%)
Wildrose - 1,438 (13.27%)
Greens - 417 (3.85%)
Informal - 17


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 14, 2012, 12:49:04 AM
I already emailed Krago about it, and he said because he was doing it for CBC, he couldn't send me them. Hence my dilemma. Estimates are good, though! :)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on March 14, 2012, 01:36:49 AM
I already emailed Krago about it, and he said because he was doing it for CBC, he couldn't send me them. Hence my dilemma. Estimates are good, though! :)

Ah, yes, makes sense... if he's being paid to do them for CBC I guess it becomes their intellectual propoerty. Hopefully on election night they'll have a swing column on their results page at which point I guess it will be in the public domain? My estimates will just have to be okay until then. I'd still trust his results more, but I guess these are better than not having anything.

I've been putting together a map of notional results at the same time - once I've typed my estimate here, I transfer the result to a map. I'll put that up once I'm finished.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 14, 2012, 09:33:35 AM
Excellent stuff Smid, you're my hero.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on March 15, 2012, 04:36:50 PM
It's nothing spectacular but I do appreciate the compliment!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Joe Republic on March 20, 2012, 02:14:19 AM
I'm just going to leave this here:


()


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on March 20, 2012, 05:53:04 AM
I think it can be tacky and decidedly unfunny repeating jokes, but as I said in the other thread, Wildrose has a fantastic campaign bust!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 20, 2012, 08:28:23 AM
The writ is expected to drop any day now. BTW, Smid, do you support the Tories or the Wildrose?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on March 20, 2012, 04:04:42 PM
Strongly supporting Wildrose. Mrs Smid knows people on both sides of the divide but a couple of close friends are working for Wildrose. I prefer the real Tories there, anyway - as Rogue Beaver says, PC are all adjective and no noun.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on March 20, 2012, 04:50:11 PM
I think it can be tacky and decidedly unfunny repeating jokes, but as I said in the other thread, Wildrose has a fantastic campaign bust!

I wonder if it was a dleiberate campaign move. Smith certainly is quite pretty.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on March 20, 2012, 08:33:41 PM
I think it can be tacky and decidedly unfunny repeating jokes, but as I said in the other thread, Wildrose has a fantastic campaign bust!

I wonder if it was a dleiberate campaign move. Smith certainly is quite pretty.

It would be a rather Machiavellian ploy - get the immature misogynist vote and the anti-immature-misogynist vote (by claiming one's opponents are immature misogynists).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 20, 2012, 08:39:39 PM
At least the Liberal bubble burst. Hopefully the leaders' debate (s?) is worth something.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on March 21, 2012, 01:53:18 AM
I think it can be tacky and decidedly unfunny repeating jokes, but as I said in the other thread, Wildrose has a fantastic campaign bust!

I wonder if it was a dleiberate campaign move. Smith certainly is quite pretty.

It would be a rather Machiavellian ploy - get the immature misogynist vote and the anti-immature-misogynist vote (by claiming one's opponents are immature misogynists).

It's probably not that convoluted, and was a mistake, but it's still a little funny that no one thought that it might be inappropriate to Smith's face above two bus wheels.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 25, 2012, 11:58:29 AM
Dissolution will apparently be tomorrow.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 26, 2012, 11:14:57 PM
Election called for April 23


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on March 27, 2012, 12:22:35 AM
Sorry my numbers are not yet complete! I'll try to by election day, but would appreciate guidance on preferred ridings to prioritise.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 27, 2012, 07:30:23 AM
Sorry my numbers are not yet complete! I'll try to by election day, but would appreciate guidance on preferred ridings to prioritise.

The one's with the most changes.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 27, 2012, 07:40:09 AM
I did the political compass on CBC, and got closer to the Liberals than the NDP *scratches head*. I didn't realize the Liberals were that left wing, and that the NDP was REALLY left wing in Alberta. WTF? How are they supposed to win in Alberta with those policies?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 27, 2012, 07:48:04 AM
I did the political compass on CBC, and got closer to the Liberals than the NDP *scratches head*. I didn't realize the Liberals were that left wing, and that the NDP was REALLY left wing in Alberta. WTF? How are they supposed to win in Alberta with those policies?

Because in at least one case (Liberals), the Progs do their work. A Brisonian ALP could have easily outflanked the Progs as they nearly did in '93- but too late, because now there's an unhyphenated conservative opposition.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on March 27, 2012, 08:33:09 AM
I did the political compass on CBC, and got closer to the Liberals than the NDP *scratches head*. I didn't realize the Liberals were that left wing, and that the NDP was REALLY left wing in Alberta. WTF? How are they supposed to win in Alberta with those policies?

Because in at least one case (Liberals), the Progs do their work. A Brisonian ALP could have easily outflanked the Progs as they nearly did in '93- but too late, because now there's an unhyphenated conservative opposition.

I did the same VoteCompass... 90% NDP.
I think the NDP wins in some areas naturally esp in Edmonton given its demographics (government workers, conceration of students, etc) NOW is a perfect time for the NDP to show its the only progressive option since the PCs and Liberals are all Blue Liberals/Red Tories... The federal election momentum might help the NDP but in polls that ive seen the party has been stuck at about 13-14% even with the liberals so.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Holmes on March 27, 2012, 10:01:41 AM
I got 76% NDP, 68% Lib, 50% PC, 42% WR. *shrug*


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on March 27, 2012, 10:34:18 AM
... Maybe i'm just as the crazy Don Cherry would say a "Left-wing pinko commie" :P


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 27, 2012, 05:50:23 PM
I got 76% NDP, 68% Lib, 50% PC, 42% WR. *shrug*

Weird, I thought you were more moderate than me!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Holmes on March 27, 2012, 05:51:41 PM
I got 76% NDP, 68% Lib, 50% PC, 42% WR. *shrug*

Weird, I thought you were more moderate than me!

Maybe not on the issues of the day in Alberta.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on March 27, 2012, 05:55:41 PM
I got 76% NDP, 68% Lib, 50% PC, 42% WR. *shrug*

Weird, I thought you were more moderate than me!

I was going to say that I've always found you to be moderate, but than realised that's not true. Neither of us are particularly moderate (indeed, we're each about equally far from centre), which highlights the difference between moderation and respect for people who hold an alternative opinion.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: MaxQue on March 27, 2012, 06:09:01 PM
NDP 82, Lib 79, PC 50, WR 37.
I'm to the right of the NDP, which surprise me only a little bit.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 27, 2012, 06:23:55 PM
WA 74, PC 63, Lib 39, NDP 20. I was significantly to Wildrose's right on fiscal matters but only slightly more socially conservative.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 27, 2012, 06:25:56 PM
I got 76% NDP, 68% Lib, 50% PC, 42% WR. *shrug*

Weird, I thought you were more moderate than me!

I was going to say that I've always found you to be moderate, but than realised that's not true. Neither of us are particularly moderate (indeed, we're each about equally far from centre), which highlights the difference between moderation and respect for people who hold an alternative opinion.

Smid, I must confess, I'm not always respectful to the other side like you are; but I could never throw any harsh words towards you. (In fact, you're so darned nice, it's hard to picture you as a cold hearted conservative ;) )

Anyways, some recent polls:

Ipsos-Reid:
PC: 38%
WR: 38%
NDP: 12%
Lib: 11%

Think HQ Public Affairs:
PC: 36% (-6)
WR: 33% (+4)
NDP: 13% (-)
Lib: 13% (+1)

It's a close race!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on March 27, 2012, 09:15:43 PM
Alberta a close race?  Wtf wow.  This should be interesting.  A race between rightists and wacko tea-party-style rightists.  What a screwed up province.  Reminds me of the far-right mud-hole of a country where I live :P


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 27, 2012, 09:24:59 PM
Alberta a close race?  Wtf wow.  This should be interesting.  A race between rightists and wacko tea-party-style rightists.  What a screwed up province.  Reminds me of the far-right mud-hole of a country where I live :P

A race between centrists and conservatives. Apart from Ralph Klein's first two terms the Progs have always taken the adjective much more seriously than the noun. How did Lougheed found the dynasty? By decrying the Socreds as a bunch of fast-buck Uncle Toms who were depriving Albertans of "our fair share" of oil revenue. His solution? An in-house NEP.

As for the close race, I expect a strong opposition but no Wildrose victory. Maybe in 2016. At best the heat gets strong enough to force the Progs rightwards, as Decore did in '93. That's the point- they only get serious about budget hawkishness when the gun's at their head. Albertans should not have to beg a supposdely conservative government to be fiscally conservative. That's without mentioning their corruption and shameless abuse of eminent domain. Did I mention aping McGuinty on nannyism?

Last but not least, 40 years is a ridiculously long incumbency. Half that is the maximum I'd be prepared to tolerate from any government.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on March 27, 2012, 10:59:50 PM
I got
PC 65%
WR 60%
Lib 53%
NDP 39%

I guess I'm the only one rooting for the PC's :)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 27, 2012, 11:50:22 PM
It should also be known that there will also be a Senate election. The Tories, WRP and the Greens are running candidates.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on March 28, 2012, 01:24:18 AM
Personally, I think the NDP should field a candidate, too. I realise that the party is taking a principled stand against the Senate, but I think not fielding a candidate is putting ideology before reality, and although I can respect that (I generally prefer ideologues to pragmatists), I think it makes as much sense as not fielding candidates in single member electorates to protest against the electoral system not being PR. Obviously, they'd be unlikely to win anyway, but that's just my personal opinion.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on March 28, 2012, 07:02:12 AM
The reason why Wildrose is even around is the fact that the PC's are pretty red tory... Wildrose is true blue conservatives now and Alberta has almost always been a more conservative province. The last "preogressive" government (i use that sparingly) was the United Farmers back in the 1921-35... its been SoCred and PC ever since.

The NDP is also taking some guff in NS since they want teh senate abolished and the Libs/Tories want them to organize for an election of senators. Me, personally if elections for senators are being held then the NDP should run... this is how the ALP eliminated the Council in Queensland (probably over simplifying things)

Should be exciting... there is a danger that with PC/WR fighting the right... esp in Edmonton that might mean a Liberal or NDP comming up the middle and winning... with as little as 25%! (4 main parties and two smaller ones, Alberta Party and Evergreen something-or-other so depending on how the votes go)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hash on March 28, 2012, 07:52:31 AM
The UFA government tended to be relatively moderate, at least they were far more moderate than most Ginger UFA MPs who were clamouring for 'group government'.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on March 28, 2012, 10:32:01 AM
If Wildrose does well, any chance they'll try to expand to other provinces and/or run candidates federally?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on March 28, 2012, 11:04:18 AM
Doubt it... the right-wing parties tend to be very provincially focused; and many Tories are starting to drift to the right anyway (here in Ontario is a good example of that).
BC has the new Conservatives, SASK has the Saskatchewan Party... the provincial tories are on life support in MAN along with the Liberals so there is no room there for another party on the right... that would mean NDP sweeping all seats. The only potential area is the Maritimes, but they never warmed up to the western based right-wing Reform, so i doubt they would vote for another one, even if it was a provincially focused one.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: danny on March 28, 2012, 11:36:59 AM
For me:
PC
61%
LIB
60%
WR
57%
NDP
54%

Social seems to mean something very different in Alberta and the USA, I'm far left in the USA and moderately right in Alberta (It's even more different in Israel).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on March 28, 2012, 12:45:36 PM
NDP 81%
Lib 73%
PC  48%
WR  32%

Same height but a bit left of the NDP.

I hadn't realised Alberta was that right-wing; even if the provincial PC are made up of "Red Tories", it's still a fight between two forms of conservatism.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 28, 2012, 04:30:56 PM
Some more polls:

Forum Research shocker!

WR: 41% (+11%)
PC: 31% (-6%)
Lib: 12% (-2%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Leger still shows the Tories ahead:

PC: 37% (-16%)
WR: 34% (+18%)
Lib: 12% (+1%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Sad that the NDP is now in 4th...


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 28, 2012, 04:34:13 PM
Some more polls:

Forum Research shocker!

WR: 41% (+11%)
PC: 31% (-6%)
Lib: 12% (-2%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Leger still shows the Tories ahead:

PC: 37% (-16%)
WR: 34% (+18%)
Lib: 12% (+1%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Sad that the NDP is now in 4th...

So 1993 all over again- the campaign will determine a winner. Or perhaps 2004 federally.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 28, 2012, 04:47:22 PM
Some more polls:

Forum Research shocker!

WR: 41% (+11%)
PC: 31% (-6%)
Lib: 12% (-2%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Leger still shows the Tories ahead:

PC: 37% (-16%)
WR: 34% (+18%)
Lib: 12% (+1%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Sad that the NDP is now in 4th...

So 1993 all over again- the campaign will determine a winner. Or perhaps 2004 federally.

If the WRP pulls away, it might make things easier to predict. But, as it stands now I have no idea how the WRP vs PC vote will split in terms of ridings.

Anyone want to put in their 2 cents?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 28, 2012, 04:54:35 PM
If WA surges too quickly, then tactical voting might kick in a la '04. Apart from that I have no idea. Any resident Albertans here?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 28, 2012, 04:59:51 PM
Here's a breakdown of the FR poll:

Rural north:
WR: 41
PC: 36
NDP: 9
Lib: 8

Rural south:
WR: 46
PC: 29
NDP: 11
Lib: 10

Calgary:
WR: 47
PC: 28
Lib: 13
NDP: 8

Edmonton:
WR: 31
PC: 30
NDP: 18
Lib: 17

Leger breakdown

Edmonton:
PC: 37
WR: 23
NDP: 17
Lib: 16

Calgary
PC: 37
WR: 35
Lib: 13
NDP: 8

Rest of Alta
WR: 41
PC: 37
NDP: 8
Lib: 7

To compare, the last election:

Calgary
PC: 46
Lib: 34
WR: 9
NDP: 4

Edmonton
PC: 43
Lib: 35
NDP: 18
WR: 2


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hash on March 28, 2012, 05:09:59 PM
Leger's Calgary sample seems too favourable to the PCs for me. I think most polls have confirmed that Calgary is now lean WR or something.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on March 28, 2012, 08:55:31 PM
Leger's Calgary sample seems too favourable to the PCs for me. I think most polls have confirmed that Calgary is now lean WR or something.

It certainly was lean WR, or possibly even more favourable than that under Stelmach. I'm sure everyone is familiar with Smith's background on the Calgary Herald (? or is it another paper?) and with the PC Premier hailing from Edmonton and surrounds, WR was able to establish a stronger position in Calgary. I somewhat expected the new Premier to be able to claw back the WR lead in Calgary, given that she is also a local, so from that perspective, I wouldn't be surprised by the Leger result. Of course, I know that there's a fair degree of dissent in the city, so I also wouldn't be surprised if the Forum Research poll was correct. It seems out of step with all the other recent polls, so I would hesitate to give it much credance yet (until such time as it's backed up by at least one other), but if another poll came out supporting those figures, I wouldn't be surprised... in short, I don't know how the election will go, and would be prepared for anything from PC slightly in front, to a fairly strong WR victory (in popular vote terms, not necessarily reflected in number of seats).

Comparing PC vs Reform federally in days gone by could possibly give an indication of regional trends that may be repeated in this election.

EDIT: Just to emphasise, this is just my gut talking, and also the feel I get from friends and family in Alberta, but not based on anything scientific.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 29, 2012, 12:10:19 AM
I will be doing my first prediction soon. These are the numbers I have now:

WRP: 53-56
PC 22-27
NDP 4
Lib 3-4


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: DL on March 29, 2012, 08:19:15 AM
There was also a poll on Stephen Taylor's blog by those "evil people" at Campaign Research that confirmed a Wildrose lead at also had very good NDP numbers in Edmonton.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on March 29, 2012, 09:10:50 AM
Thank you! i was looking for that poll as it was mentioned on Rabble...
http://www.stephentaylor.ca/

Comparing that with the previous election:
Edmonton:
Edmonton
PC: 43         28 -15
Lib: 35         18 -17
NDP: 18       23 +5
WR: 2          23 +21

IF these are close to being the results; we could see huge wins (seat totals) for either the PCs, NDP or Wildrose... as i mentioned before, with numbers like this (factor in Alberta Party and Evergreen taking say 5% combined) we could see a party with with 25% of the vote.
The Liberals look like they might lose all their seats but probably will be left with 2 is more close to reality (Meadowlark and Centre probably). IF the Liberal vote swings 60%+ to the NDP this could mean 4-5 pick ups for the NDP (Glenora, Calder, Beverly-Clearview, Manning), If the WR eats enough into the PCs vote we could even see low hanging seats like Gold Bar, Ellerslie, Riverview or Centre going NDP. Thats my optimistic NDPer forcast. We could easily see WR pick up some strong right wing/affluent suburban ridings too by meer hundreds of votes. 


   


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 29, 2012, 04:28:01 PM
Campaign Research breakdown

Calgary
WR: 42%
PC: 31%
Lib: 14%
NDP: 6%

Rest of Alta
WR: 46%
PC: 31%
Lib: 10%
NDP: 10%

Edmonton
PC:   28
Lib:     18
NDP:  23
WR:   23


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 29, 2012, 11:08:47 PM
My first prediction for Alberta: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/03/2012-alberta-election-prediction-march.html


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on March 30, 2012, 07:46:41 AM
Earl, killer... love your maps and the riding by riding predictions.
I commented too :P

Campaign Research seems to be so far an outlier in Edmonton... they have the NDP far higher than anyone else, and the PCs/WR lower. I love them numbers but for now i will take it with a grain a salt.

If people are looking for a comparison year, its 1971... SoCreds had been in power for about 36years; the tories went into that election with only 6 seats. The similarities are there; a seeming tired regime, a popular new party leader with momentum (WR Smith today); That elections saw the Liberals Shut out and the NDP under the late Notley won a seat (rural northern one at that). This time i don't see the PCs, like the SoCreds being shut out of Edmonton and Calgfary... Calgary maybe but not Edmonton. Also, Alberta is more diverse now then in 1971 but that could go either way, no longer are minority groups a given to vote for Liberals/NDP or even the moderate PCs now.

I think Smith already made a blunder; saying Redmond didn't love Alberta, really? thats a pretty novice weak attack.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 30, 2012, 04:37:11 PM
Thanks for the comment :) Seems others have commented as well, which is nice to see. Someone mentioned the Abacus poll, so I should post the numbers here:

WRP 41 (+12)
PC 28 (-6)
ALP 16 (-2)
NDP 12 (-2)

Can't find any regional numbers yet. But it's clear to see that the PCs would be nearly wiped off the map with those numbers.



Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 30, 2012, 05:08:14 PM
Interesting note about the Abacus poll, it was done using the IVR technology from EKOS. One of my friends/co-workers did the voice for it, so many Albertans will have heard her.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on March 30, 2012, 06:28:44 PM
In terms of strong incumbents, I'd rank Ted Morton highly. He's somewhat more Conservative, and a fair amount of the PC to Wildrose change came after he lost the leadership ballot. This suggests to me that some conservatives may see him as almost defacto Wildrose. I could be wrong, and no one has said this to me, it's just my own hunch. Of course, Wildrose performed quite well in his riding last election, I think, so I could be wrong.

One Wildrose candidate I'd rate highly is the guy who had previously been elected to the Senate - the first elected as an independent, I believe.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 30, 2012, 06:40:40 PM
In terms of strong incumbents, I'd rank Ted Morton highly. He's somewhat more Conservative, and a fair amount of the PC to Wildrose change came after he lost the leadership ballot. This suggests to me that some conservatives may see him as almost defacto Wildrose. I could be wrong, and no one has said this to me, it's just my own hunch. Of course, Wildrose performed quite well in his riding last election, I think, so I could be wrong.

One Wildrose candidate I'd rate highly is the guy who had previously been elected to the Senate - the first elected as an independent, I believe.

Yes, Morton is the PC right's longtime leader. Had he succeeded Klein 6 years ago Wildrose would probably not exist today IMO.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: adma on March 30, 2012, 09:07:48 PM
My first prediction for Alberta: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/03/2012-alberta-election-prediction-march.html


My favourite candidate name: "Garnett Genius" (WR, Sherwood Park)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 30, 2012, 09:44:19 PM
Harper has green-lighted federal endorsements... but only in the MP's own riding. He'll be much happier with Smith.

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative%2Bpick%2Bhome%2Bturf%2Bfavourites%2Bprovincial%2Belections/6388122/story.html


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on March 31, 2012, 04:07:53 AM
Harper has green-lighted federal endorsements... but only in the MP's own riding. He'll be much happier with Smith.

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative%2Bpick%2Bhome%2Bturf%2Bfavourites%2Bprovincial%2Belections/6388122/story.html

Isn't Smith to the right of Harper though?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 31, 2012, 08:15:30 AM
Harper has green-lighted federal endorsements... but only in the MP's own riding. He'll be much happier with Smith.

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative%2Bpick%2Bhome%2Bturf%2Bfavourites%2Bprovincial%2Belections/6388122/story.html

Isn't Smith to the right of Harper though?

Which version of Harper?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 31, 2012, 08:20:35 AM
I found the Edmonton numbers from the Abacus poll:

PC: 30
WRP: 29
Lib: 20
NDP: 18


They also say that the WRP is ahead in Calgary, central Alberta and in the south, while the PCs are still ahead in the north... I can't find numbers yet.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on March 31, 2012, 03:10:46 PM
Harper has green-lighted federal endorsements... but only in the MP's own riding. He'll be much happier with Smith.

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative%2Bpick%2Bhome%2Bturf%2Bfavourites%2Bprovincial%2Belections/6388122/story.html

Isn't Smith to the right of Harper though?

Which version of Harper?
Elijah.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 31, 2012, 04:14:06 PM
Here are the Abacus breakdowns

Calgary
WRP: 50
PC: 25
Lib: 10
NDP: 8

Edmonton
PC: 30
WRP: 29
Lib: 20
NDP: 18

North
WRP: 39
PC: 37
NDP: 14
Lib: 7

Central
WRP: 49
PC: 29
Lib: 11
NDP: 9

South (caution: very small sample size)
WRP: 39
PC: 23
NDP: 14
Lib: 14


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 31, 2012, 08:03:59 PM
Getting nasty out there.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/03/31/calgary-redford-smith-fertility-resignation.html?cmp=rss


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 31, 2012, 08:19:35 PM
Someone commented on my blog saying they werent going to vote WRP because Smith doesnt have children. I wonder if they were actually some Tory partisan?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 31, 2012, 08:26:36 PM
Way out of bounds IMO.

Here's a Redford profile if anyone's interested. She and the PM have known each other for nearly 30 years among other things.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/alison-redford-a-leader-on-the-brink/article2387909/singlepage/#articlecontent



Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on April 01, 2012, 12:06:45 AM
Harper has green-lighted federal endorsements... but only in the MP's own riding. He'll be much happier with Smith.

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative%2Bpick%2Bhome%2Bturf%2Bfavourites%2Bprovincial%2Belections/6388122/story.html

Isn't Smith to the right of Harper though?

Which version of Harper?

The one that doesn't have to make his views more moderate with a minority government anymore.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 01, 2012, 12:19:31 AM
From what little I know of Redford she seems to be to the left of Harper. More so than Smith is to his right? I have no idea.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on April 01, 2012, 04:00:31 AM
Someone commented on my blog saying they werent going to vote WRP because Smith doesnt have children.
Lol. Sounds thirdworldy Christian to me.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 01, 2012, 04:10:53 AM
Someone commented on my blog saying they werent going to vote WRP because Smith doesnt have children.
Lol. Sounds thirdworldy Christian to me.

The number of people who would base their decision on that would have to be less than half a percent. Sounds like a partisan hack to me, trying to make an issue of it.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on April 01, 2012, 04:20:11 AM
Someone commented on my blog saying they werent going to vote WRP because Smith doesnt have children.
Lol. Sounds thirdworldy Christian to me.

The number of people who would base their decision on that would have to be less than half a percent. Sounds like a partisan hack to me, trying to make an issue of it.
It's still telling that someone would think this a worthwhile avenue to pursue in Canada. Even as a long shot.
Now if she were four times divorced... like certain German politicians who did get a wee bit of bad press over it[/i]... sure. That could be a salient character issue anywhere in Teh Westrn World.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 02, 2012, 10:32:39 PM
Analyzing some key races in Calgary: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-analysis-calgary.html


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 02, 2012, 10:57:00 PM
By the way Smid, you can stop doing the vote redistribution, Hill and Knowlton have already done so for their election predictor: http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/#/alberta+2012/swing

ETA: There are a few errors in it though, eg Calgary-Shaw and Lacombe-Ponoka gave wrong numbers to the NDP.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 02, 2012, 11:08:10 PM
Why is Lacombe-Ponoka 27% NDP on the redistricted riding boundaries?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 02, 2012, 11:16:02 PM
Why is Lacombe-Ponoka 27% NDP on the redistricted riding boundaries?

It's one of the (at least) two errors I've found. I'm going to go through them at some point to see if there are any others. Then, I will make a map :)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 02, 2012, 11:23:01 PM
By the way Smid, you can stop doing the vote redistribution, Hill and Knowlton have already done so for their election predictor: http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/#/alberta+2012/swing

ETA: There are a few errors in it though, eg Calgary-Shaw and Lacombe-Ponoka gave wrong numbers to the NDP.

Oh, that's great!

I'm going to copy their estimates across... will be interesting to see how similar we are in the ridings I completed. My method was transferring polls as per normal, as anyone else would do, but my treatment of declaration votes (that's what they're called here, and include pre-poll and postals and absentee ballots... so I'm using a similar term for the mobile booth, etc, at the bottom of the vote tables on the Elections Alberta website) - lengthy sentence, I'll start over. My treatment of declaration votes was that they were divided according to the partisan makeup of the polls being split off. By this I mean, instead of saying "Out of the 20,000 ordinary votes cast in polls in Riding A, 5,000 are going to Riding B. There were 800 declaration votes cast in Riding A, so I will transfer one quarter of the PC declaration votes, one quarter of the Liberal votes, one quarter of the NDP votes, one quarter of the Wildrose votes..." instead, I treat each party separately, which mainly affects polarised electorates - if the parts being split off Riding A were heavily NDP, the proportion of declaration votes transferred would be weighted accordingly.

I'm not explaining this well...

I will post an example later this afternoon, so you can see what I mean... probably my calculations in Calgary West, since it doesn't gain anything, just loses parts.

EDIT: Here are my calculations from Calgary-West, to demonstrate the way I've been treating declaration votes. It's not so much a "hey, look at how I do it, so you can do it this way, too" but more of a "this is what I've done, and I only have high school maths, so if I'm doing it wrong, perhaps someone could correct the record for me..."

In 2008, election results in Calgary-West were:

(rather than re-typing, the two numbers in brackets are Ordinary Votes/Declaration Votes)
Enrolment: 44,306
PC: 8,428 (7,572/856)
Lib: 5,693 (5,222/471)
NDP: 401 (360/41)
Wildrose: 2,273 (2,101/172)
Green: 773 (730/43)
Informal: 33 (26/7) (Informal are Rejected and Declined ballots, not spoilt ballots, because spoilt ballots are re-issued, and therefore the voter is counted in one of the party totals already).

Polls 1-13 and 86-100 are transferred to Calgary-Bow. Half of poll 81 is, as well, but it doesn't look like anyone lives in the part that is transferred. Polls 40-50 are transferred to Calgary-Currie. These are totalled as (ordinary votes, just including the actual poll votes, not any of the declaration ones):

Transfer - Voters - PC - Lib - NDP - Wildrose - Green - Informal
to Bow - 13,018 - 2,020 - 1,542 - 105 - 589 - 216 - 8
to Currie - 5,677 - 750 - 527 - 79 - 183 - 120 - 5
Remaining - 25,611 - 4,802 - 3,153 - 176 - 1,329 - 394 - 13

As a proportion of total ordinary votes,

Transfer - PC - Lib - NDP - WR - GRN - Inf
to Bow - 0.266772 - 0.295289 - 0.291667 - 0.280343 - 0.29589 - 0.307692
to Currie - 0.099049 - 0.100919 - 0.219444 - 0.087101 - 0.164384 - 0.192308
Remaining - 0.634179 - 0.603792 - 0.488889 - 0.632556 - 0.539726 - 0.5

So 26.68% of the PC votes were transferred to Calgary-Bow, while 29.53% of Liberal votes, 29.17% of NDP votes, 28.03% of Wildrose votes and 29.59% of Greens votes were transferred there as well. The parts of Calgary West transferred to Calgary-Currie were even more strongly weighted to the NDP (or another way of saying it would be, the NDP performed most strongly in that part of the riding, while PC and Wildrose performed worst in that part). The parts of Calgary-West remaining in the new Calgary-West were the strongest PC and Wildrose parts of the riding - 63.4% of PC voters and 63.26% of Wildrose voters and 60% of Liberal voters remained in the new C-W, whereas fewer than half the NDP voters, and only just over half the Greens voters remain in the new C-W.

Multiplying the number of declaration votes cast for each party, by the proportion of party vote being transferred or remaining gives (after rounding):

PC - 228 to Bow, 85 to Currie, 543 remaining
Lib - 139 to Bow, 48 to Currie, 284 remaining
NDP - 12 to Bow, 9 to Currie, 20 remaining
Wildrose - 48 to Bow, 15 to Currie, 109 remaining
Greens - 13 to Bow, 7 to Currie, 23 remaining

These figures are added to the original vote totals of transfers (ie, ordinary votes transferred), which gives the totals in my earlier post from a week or so back.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 03, 2012, 01:06:11 AM
Actually... their results in Calgary are looking just... bizarre.

They say they've attempted to come up with notional figures on the new boundaries, but the numbers don't seem to be any different from the actual 2008 results. I realised this when I decided to just temporarily plug in the NDP figures from Calgary-Shaw from last election, and disregard their obvious data entry problem there, and realised that their PC figures were the same as last election, too. Thought that perhaps the boundaries hadn't changed (but too lazy to look it up), so started comparing results in other ridings to actual last election results...

Calgary-West has very obviously changed boundaries, losing (on my estimates) 13,018 voters to Calgary-Bow and 5,677 voters to Calgary-Currie. My new figures (as listed in the earlier thread, gave it as 5,345 PC votes, 3,437 Liberal votes, 196 NDP votes, 1,438 Wildrose votes, 417 Greens votes, for a total of 10,833 votes cast in polls remaining in Calgary West (including a proportion of the declaration votes cast in the old Calgary West).

Polls 1-13 and 86-100 were transferred to Calgary-Bow, and polls 40-50 were transferred to Calgary-Currie.

The Hill-Knowlton estimates were 8,428 PC votes, 5,693 Liberal votes, 401 NDP votes, 2,273 Wildrose votes and 773 Other votes. Meanwhile, Elections Alberta's Report into the 2008 election (Part 11 - PDF following this link is 4.42MB) (http://www.elections.ab.ca/Public%20Website/files/Reports/Part11.pdf) show the 2008 election results were: 8,428 PC votes, 5,693 Liberal votes, 401 NDP votes, 2,273 Wildrose votes and 773 Greens votes.

I think they've only estimated new results in ridings which were completely split, like Fort Mac or Airdrie, although I'm still looking more deeply. Once I've finished collating their figures into a spreadsheet, I'll compare them to last election's actual figures and find out which ridings differ.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 03, 2012, 01:35:30 AM
Okay, I have no idea what they've done because even the radically altered Airdrie-Chestermere being split in half to become Airdrie and Chestermere-Rocky View isn't done properly. The new Airdrie riding is exactly the same as the old results for the old Airdrie-Chestermere riding. The only thing they've done, it would appear, is transfer the results of old electorates into new, renamed electorates. The results for the new Calgary-Greenway are identical to the results of the old Calgary-Montrose. I'm yet to find any ridings with notional results that are any different to the actual results at the last election on the old boundaries. The new Chestermere-Rocky View is identical to the old Foothills-Rocky View.

I think the most cringe-worthy, however, is their handling of Fort Mac...

Fort McMurray - Wood Buffalo (old) was split into two ridings. It was completely split, from what I can tell, there were no areas from other ridings added to either one of the new ridings, it was completely just split down the middle to form two new ridings. The relevant numbers are:

Fort McMurray - Wood Buffalo (old):
Enrolment: 26,701
PC - 4,519
Lib - 1,758
NDP - 550
Greens - 300

Fort McMurray - Conklin:
PC - 4,519
Lib - 1,758
NDP - 550
Other - 300

Fort McMurray - Wood Buffalo (new):
PC - 4,519
Lib - 1,758
NDP - 550
Other - 300

All they did was directly transfer the results from the old riding into BOTH the new ridings!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 03, 2012, 07:20:05 AM
lol, oh dear! I should've taken a better look. Oh well, I guess it's back to the drawing board :(

Why would they advertise "why are the results different?" when they aren't?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 03, 2012, 05:39:37 PM
lol, oh dear! I should've taken a better look. Oh well, I guess it's back to the drawing board :(

Why would they advertise "why are the results different?" when they aren't?

My query, exactly!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 03, 2012, 05:55:55 PM
Why is Smith aping Ralphbucks? They're essentially a costly bribe. Do it properly with a tax cut or rebate.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/alberta-politics/6404445/story.html

I hope Smith keeps it to tax cuts. Let the other 3 parties engage in their usual spending auction.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Political+parties+promise+billions+perks+Alberta+voters/6401438/story.html


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 03, 2012, 08:32:35 PM
New poll out from ThinkHQ/CTV: WRP 41, PC 30, NDP 12, LPA 11. If the PCs are about to drop below 30 in the second week... :)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/wildrose-poised-for-majority-in-alberta-poll/article2391311/


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 03, 2012, 09:19:18 PM
Seems to be following an eerily similiar pattern to 1971.  In both cases a party that had been in power for many years gets challenged by a party in third or fourth place and in both cases it was a battle between two parties on the political right.  The only difference is the PCs were more centrist than the Social Credit, whereas the WRA is more right wing than the PCs.  While taking a more centrist approach like Redford has might make sense in other provinces, it is a risky proposition in Alberta.  On the one hand it has marginalized the NDP and Liberals, but at the same time has opened room for a party on the right to emerge, whereas in other provinces that is less likely to happen as you would just get vote splitting and a centre-left would win by default.  Think New Brunswick 1990, British Columbia 1996 for example.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 03, 2012, 09:25:45 PM
The Progs have always been centrist, that's why they were born and that's why they'll die. Good riddance.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 03, 2012, 09:56:28 PM
The Progs have always been centrist, that's why they were born and that's why they'll die. Good riddance.

Peter Lougheed was, but Ralph Klein was pretty conservative, especially in his first term.  True less so towards the end of his career.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 03, 2012, 10:49:39 PM
New poll out from ThinkHQ/CTV: WRP 41, PC 30, NDP 12, LPA 11. If the PCs are about to drop below 30 in the second week... :)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/wildrose-poised-for-majority-in-alberta-poll/article2391311/

WRP is at 43, not 41.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 03, 2012, 10:55:23 PM
City breakdowns for the Think HQ poll

Calgary
WRP: 47
PC: 29
Lib: 11
NDP: 7

Edmonton
WRP: 31
PC: 30
Lib: 18
NDP: 17

This must mean the NDP is ahead of the Liberals in the rest of the province.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 03, 2012, 10:57:49 PM
City breakdowns for the Think HQ poll

Calgary
WRP: 47
PC: 29
Lib: 11
NDP: 7

Edmonton
WRP: 31
PC: 30
Lib: 18
NDP: 17

This must mean the NDP is ahead of the Liberals in the rest of the province.

Wonder what this will look like in your next projection.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 03, 2012, 11:09:11 PM
City breakdowns for the Think HQ poll

Calgary
WRP: 47
PC: 29
Lib: 11
NDP: 7

Edmonton
WRP: 31
PC: 30
Lib: 18
NDP: 17

This must mean the NDP is ahead of the Liberals in the rest of the province.

Wonder what this will look like in your next projection.

Those breakdowns are fairly similar to the other polls, so not much change, other than a few more WRP seats.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 04, 2012, 12:11:24 AM
I am guessing if those numbers hold up, Edmonton might be the PCs stronghold which in most cases is their weaker spot, mind you Edmonton usually is always more left leaning than the rest of Alberta and the PCs although still centre-right, they are to the left of the WRA.  I also wonder how many of the PC supporters are traditional NDP or Liberal supporters who are voting strategically to keep the WRA out of power as opposed to traditional PC supporters.  And likewise are the WRA supporters your traditional PC supporters are just your fed up types who want change?  I suspect it is somewhat of a mix although I should note federally in 1993 you did see a similiar strong swing from the PCs to the Reform Party and while many where traditional PC supporters, they did also attract some protest votes.  Also kind of like the 90s too with many of the types who voted for Joe Clark sticking with the PCs while those that went for the Reform/Alliance are gravitating to the WRA.  Although interestingly enough the PCs were strongest in Calgary not Edmonton where most who didn't vote Reform/Alliance went Liberal whereas Calgary was more of a mix.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 04, 2012, 09:08:59 AM
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/alberta-politics/6404846/story.html

NDP Balanced Budget platform... could be(probably is) an attempt to lure Liberals over to their camp espcially in Edmonton.
Last election the PCs were stronger in Edmonton b/c Stelmach had the local boy effect, if you look at 2004 the Lib/NDP held all but three edmonton seats. This year the PC/WR leaders are both Calgary gals so Edmonton is going to be a battle between for who in the opposition can win over more voters.
If WR sweeps, it will be interesting to see which seats stay PC and weather its based more on local political leanings of the MLA themselves


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2012, 03:48:18 PM
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/alberta-politics/6404846/story.html

NDP Balanced Budget platform... could be(probably is) an attempt to lure Liberals over to their camp espcially in Edmonton.
Last election the PCs were stronger in Edmonton b/c Stelmach had the local boy effect, if you look at 2004 the Lib/NDP held all but three edmonton seats. This year the PC/WR leaders are both Calgary gals so Edmonton is going to be a battle between for who in the opposition can win over more voters.
If WR sweeps, it will be interesting to see which seats stay PC and weather its based more on local political leanings of the MLA themselves

As happened here in Quebec for both Grits and Tories federally last year.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 04, 2012, 05:09:12 PM
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/alberta-politics/6404846/story.html

NDP Balanced Budget platform... could be(probably is) an attempt to lure Liberals over to their camp espcially in Edmonton.
Last election the PCs were stronger in Edmonton b/c Stelmach had the local boy effect, if you look at 2004 the Lib/NDP held all but three edmonton seats. This year the PC/WR leaders are both Calgary gals so Edmonton is going to be a battle between for who in the opposition can win over more voters.
If WR sweeps, it will be interesting to see which seats stay PC and weather its based more on local political leanings of the MLA themselves

It might also due to strategic voting too.  Many not on the right will vote for whomever is most likely to stop the most right wing party and considering the PCs are doing much better than the Liberals or NDP, so might vote PCs for that reason never mind Alison Redford is pretty centrist anyways.  I know many on the centre-left who despised Klein, Harper, and Manning but would have no problem supporting Redford.  In fact that is partly why the WRA is doing so well is many Conservatives don't see her as a real conservative. 


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2012, 07:07:33 PM
Campaign Research: WRP 45.5%, PC 28.8%, LPA 11.3%, NDP 10.2%. My only question is this: how many more PC seats tumble if they're below 30?

http://www.stephentaylor.ca/2012/04/new-poll-wildrose-up-by-17-points/


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 04, 2012, 07:23:33 PM
Apparently you have to email them to get more of a break down :(


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 04, 2012, 08:19:09 PM
There was a Forum Research poll also released

WRP 43 (+2)
PC 29 (-2)
Lib 13 (+1)
NDP 10 (-1)

Calgary
WRP 48 (+1)
PC 26 (-2)
Lib 14 (+1)
NDP 8 (-)

Edmonton
PC 33 (+3)!
WRP 26 (-5)!
NDP 18 (-)
Lib 16 (-1)

North
WRP 49 (+3)
PC 29 (-)
Lib 9 (+1)
NDP 7 (-2)

South (incl Red Deer)
WRP 57 (+11)!
PC 24 (-5)
Lib 8 (-2)
NDP 6 (-5)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2012, 08:24:17 PM
The leaders' debate is a week from tomorrow. Wonder how that will turn out. I saw Smith on QP last week and was impressed when she dismantled some myths about equalization.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on April 04, 2012, 08:27:30 PM
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/alberta-politics/6404846/story.html

NDP Balanced Budget platform... could be(probably is) an attempt to lure Liberals over to their camp espcially in Edmonton.
Last election the PCs were stronger in Edmonton b/c Stelmach had the local boy effect, if you look at 2004 the Lib/NDP held all but three edmonton seats. This year the PC/WR leaders are both Calgary gals so Edmonton is going to be a battle between for who in the opposition can win over more voters.
If WR sweeps, it will be interesting to see which seats stay PC and weather its based more on local political leanings of the MLA themselves

It might also due to strategic voting too.  Many not on the right will vote for whomever is most likely to stop the most right wing party and considering the PCs are doing much better than the Liberals or NDP, so might vote PCs for that reason never mind Alison Redford is pretty centrist anyways.  I know many on the centre-left who despised Klein, Harper, and Manning but would have no problem supporting Redford.  In fact that is partly why the WRA is doing so well is many Conservatives don't see her as a real conservative.  

Given the dynamics of three-way FPTP races, if the WRP lead keeps expanding, you'll eventually start having two competing trends:

1. Liberal and NDP voters voting PC to keep out WRP.

2. PC voters voting WRP to keep out Liberals and NDP.

The PCs have to hope that 1 is a stronger trend than 2, or they'll be wiped off the map.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2012, 08:30:37 PM
There are some PCs who'll survive on their personal popularity. If they lose official party status and Liberals form OO, Sherman will have a good claim to the last laugh.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on April 04, 2012, 08:47:50 PM
The leaders' debate is a week from tomorrow. Wonder how that will turn out. I saw Smith on QP last week and was impressed when she dismantled some myths about equalization.

QP?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 04, 2012, 08:49:22 PM
The leaders' debate is a week from tomorrow. Wonder how that will turn out. I saw Smith on QP last week and was impressed when she dismantled some myths about equalization.

QP?

CTV's Question Period. Here's the link.

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/ctvs-question-period/april-1/#clip649165


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on April 04, 2012, 08:53:46 PM
Cheers.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 04, 2012, 10:07:12 PM
There are some PCs who'll survive on their personal popularity. If they lose official party status and Liberals form OO, Sherman will have a good claim to the last laugh.

Except the Liberals will be lucky to win more than a couple of seats.

Anyways, here's my Edmonton analysis (whew!): http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-analysis-edmonton.html


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on April 05, 2012, 01:13:34 AM
Has Alberta ever had a Liberal or NDP Premier before?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 05, 2012, 02:00:15 AM
It was Liberal from Confederation until...uh, ninety-one years ago. Not that long, in geologic time.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on April 05, 2012, 02:26:02 AM
Why does everyone assume that the many of the remaining NDP and Grit supporters will strategically vote for the PCers? The MLPs are the same troupe of right-wingers that they've opposed for decades and presumably most Blue Liberals are already supporting Redford.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 05, 2012, 07:01:04 AM
Why does everyone assume that the many of the remaining NDP and Grit supporters will strategically vote for the PCers? The MLPs are the same troupe of right-wingers that they've opposed for decades and presumably most Blue Liberals are already supporting Redford.

My Guess is that more Liberal voters are flexible, exp. since Redford is the typicla red tory. The Liberals are running a very left-wing platform from what ive seen so they don't seem to be going after the PC vote. I think the Liberal vote might be nearing its bottom, which is probably close to what the NDP is at, around 10%
The NDP might see 2008 numbers but i think thats the basement right now, their numbers since election call haven't tanked or skyrocketed so i think more of that moderate vote might be going PC if the WR looks to win big. The NDP are pretty stable, there sitting about (province wide) 2004 numbers... but with four-way splits who knows how thats going to manifest.
2008 - 8.5% (EDM - 18%)
2004 - 10.2 (EDM - 22%)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hash on April 05, 2012, 07:08:40 AM
Has Alberta ever had a Liberal or NDP Premier before?

Alberta was a Liberal stronghold federally until 1917 and provincially until 1921. Pedants will argue that the NDP is the descendant of the UFA, which dominated provincial politics between 1921 and 1935.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 05, 2012, 07:10:35 AM
The combined WRP + PC vote according to polls is around 70%, so obviously some Liberals have switched their vote. There are also polls that show how 2008 votes are going this time, I'll try to find some examples.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 05, 2012, 07:18:48 AM
Abacus seems to be the most recent pollster to ask about 2008 votes.

People who voted Tory last time
WRP: 52%!
PC: 40%
Lib: 4%
NDP: 3%

People who voted WRP last time
WRP: 81%
PC: 10%
Lib: 4%
NDP: 4%

People who voted Lib last time
Lib: 54%
WRP: 19%
PC: 14% (less than the WRP, so not that much I guess)
NDP: 9%

People who voted NDP last time
NDP: 61%
Lib: 15%
WRP: 15%
PC: 7%

So yeah, not many left of centre votes are going to the PCs yet. In fact, more are going to the WRP. Sounds like 1993, when many populist NDP votes went Reform in the west.



Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 05, 2012, 07:25:35 AM
Earl, great work on your Edmonton analysis. I guess Ray Martin was from the part of his old riding that got shifted into the new riding where he's competing this election?

Those polls showing vote switching since 2008 would be are very interesting!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 05, 2012, 07:27:44 AM
Earl, great work on your Edmonton analysis. I guess Ray Martin was from the part of his old riding that got shifted into the new riding where he's competing this election?

Those polls showing vote switching since 2008 would be very interesting!

Not sure about Martin. I don't know why he would switch ridings, AFAIK there's no residency requirements to run, but Alberta might have those rules.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 05, 2012, 07:31:40 AM
May not be a formal requirement, just a personal attachment to the area? There were parts that transferred in from his riding, not substantially, but a small amount did.

Interesting that over half the PC voters last election are intending to vote PC this election! Just incredible! Given Wildrose's dramatic rise in the polls, unsurprising that they have the highest voter retention. Interesting that the NDP has the second highest voter retention figures.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 05, 2012, 07:48:03 AM


Interesting that over half the PC voters last election are intending to vote PC Wildrose this election!

Corrected for you :)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 05, 2012, 07:55:49 AM
Earl, great work on your Edmonton analysis. I guess Ray Martin was from the part of his old riding that got shifted into the new riding where he's competing this election?

Those polls showing vote switching since 2008 would be very interesting!

Not sure about Martin. I don't know why he would switch ridings, AFAIK there's no residency requirements to run, but Alberta might have those rules.

The Edmonton Journal did a write up on Edm-Glenora (papers do that kinda thing, bios of ridings) anywho Martin said the "party" thought he would have a good shot at the riding given his name and political history in the city, he really was the face of the NDP back when the party took 16seats in the late 80s. (the liberal social media space was so pissed at that news, they thought they had this one locked up) Also the riding he held in 04 was Beverly-Clearview (earl you pointed that out) they had already nominated an different candidate... Martin is getting up there in age so i think the common perception was he was done after running in 08 and in May 11 in EDM East.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 05, 2012, 08:18:47 AM
Daveberta.ca did a review of some potential WR MLAs and potential cabinet ministers:
http://daveberta.ca/2012/04/danielle-smith-wildrose-candidates/

A nice mix of Evangelicals, sexually-insecure anti-gay activits, Harper Conservative connected people and weird eco-conservatives who think LRT is dirtier then cars...


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 05, 2012, 08:43:07 AM
Sorry, posting craze today... Leger poll

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/05/wildrose-pulling-ahead-of-pcs-in-alberta-election-campaign-poll/

Wildrose: 41
PC: 34
NDP: 12
Lib: 10
Ab party: 2

Quote: The other surprise in the poll is the surge of the NDP in Edmonton.

Edmonton
PC: 37
Wildrose: 25
NDP: 20
Lib: 12

This is the second poll to have the NDP at 20%... Earl, how do you think this will play with your Edmonton prediction if this trend continues?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: DL on April 05, 2012, 10:16:53 AM
The way I see it there are 6 winnable seats for the NDP - all in Edmonton (plus a possible longshot in Lethbridge West)

Edmonton-Strathcona and Edmonton Highlands Norwood are easy holds
Edmonton-Calder and Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview were very narrow losses last time and should be very low hanging fruit this time what with the collapsing PC and Liberal vote
Edmonton-Glenora is a good target with ray Martin
Edmonton-Gold Bar is entirely part of the Linda Duncan's federal riding and redistribution has added even more NDP territory to it. With no Liberal incumbent and a strong NDP campaign that is building on the federal NDP check-marks - this is highly winnable for the NDP in a four way split.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 05, 2012, 10:48:34 AM
The way I see it there are 6 winnable seats for the NDP - all in Edmonton (plus a possible longshot in Lethbridge West)

Edmonton-Strathcona and Edmonton Highlands Norwood are easy holds
Edmonton-Calder and Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview were very narrow losses last time and should be very low hanging fruit this time what with the collapsing PC and Liberal vote
Edmonton-Glenora is a good target with ray Martin
Edmonton-Gold Bar is entirely part of the Linda Duncan's federal riding and redistribution has added even more NDP territory to it. With no Liberal incumbent and a strong NDP campaign that is building on the federal NDP check-marks - this is highly winnable for the NDP in a four way split.

Sounds about right to me... I'm going to throw Manning into the mix if the NDP end up at 20+ in the city; The have a strong (on paper) candidate in a School board trustee, they earned about 20% in 08 when the there was a liberal-turned-indie MLA and a Liberal in the mix. I think this is the next low-hanging fruit in the city


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on April 05, 2012, 12:09:29 PM
Wtf.... (is he just being snarky?)

http://www.albertaliberal.com/news.php?n=87


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 05, 2012, 02:32:47 PM
Sorry, posting craze today... Leger poll

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/05/wildrose-pulling-ahead-of-pcs-in-alberta-election-campaign-poll/

Wildrose: 41
PC: 34
NDP: 12
Lib: 10
Ab party: 2

Quote: The other surprise in the poll is the surge of the NDP in Edmonton.

Edmonton
PC: 37
Wildrose: 25
NDP: 20
Lib: 12

This is the second poll to have the NDP at 20%... Earl, how do you think this will play with your Edmonton prediction if this trend continues?

Those EDM numbers look good for the Tories and the NDP, but I should qualify that 20% is not a surge for the NDP, which got 18% there in 2008.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 05, 2012, 02:40:32 PM
Leger breakdown

Edmonton
PC: 37 (-)
Wildrose: 25 (+2)
NDP: 20 (+3)
Lib: 12 (-4)

Calgary
WRP: 47 (+12)
PC: 34 (-3)
Lib: 11 (-2)
NDP: 7 (-1)

Rest of AB
WRP: 54 (+15)
PC: 30 (-7)
NDP: 7 (-1)
Lib: 5 (-2)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: adma on April 05, 2012, 07:03:30 PM
At this rate, I'm wondering if Wildrose might wind up doing to the PCs what the federal NDP did to the Bloc Quebecois a year ago.  (Or if we might even be facing a retro-Lougheed circumstance in which no opposition party has official party status)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 05, 2012, 07:42:40 PM
Well, the Bloc was able to win seats that were previously marginal due to people who would've  voted NDP strategically voting, allowing the Bloc to win in some odd areas like Ahuntsic. So, the PCs might win some of those previous Liberal-PC races in Edmonton because of that. People who would otherwise vote WRP in some of those seats will vote PC to stop the Liberals.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 05, 2012, 07:46:43 PM
At this rate, I'm wondering if Wildrose might wind up doing to the PCs what the federal NDP did to the Bloc Quebecois a year ago.  (Or if we might even be facing a retro-Lougheed circumstance in which no opposition party has official party status)

I would laugh so hard if Ted Morton was last pC standing... They should have elected him leader.

Thanks for fixing that earlier error for me, Earl!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 05, 2012, 07:57:36 PM
At this rate, I'm wondering if Wildrose might wind up doing to the PCs what the federal NDP did to the Bloc Quebecois a year ago.  (Or if we might even be facing a retro-Lougheed circumstance in which no opposition party has official party status)

I would laugh so hard if Ted Morton was last pC standing... They should have elected him leader.

Thanks for fixing that earlier error for me, Earl!

Had he been elected in '06 Wildrose probably wouldn't exist today. Post-election he should join Wildrose, where he clearly belongs. The PC remnants can join the Liberals or flee east to McWorld.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 05, 2012, 09:19:48 PM
This is getting pretty disturbing. It's like a reflection of the Tea Party's takeover of the GOP here just in a different party.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 06, 2012, 08:20:09 AM
This is getting pretty disturbing. It's like a reflection of the Tea Party's takeover of the GOP here just in a different party.

Kind of, but I'd the WRP is more like mainstream Republicans, while the Tories (especially under Redford) are like mainstream Democrats.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on April 06, 2012, 01:21:48 PM
This is getting pretty disturbing. It's like a reflection of the Tea Party's takeover of the GOP here just in a different party.

Kind of, but I'd the WRP is more like mainstream Republicans, while the Tories (especially under Redford) are like mainstream Democrats.

I think your Canadian bias is coming out here. :P

The WRP is almost a carbon copy of the latest dominant wave of movement conservatism down here in the states. It does have a distinctly western flavor and reminds me a lot of the modern Idaho GOP's rhetoric. In general, Albertan politics reminds me of Idahoan politics in style, rhetoric and even the demographic divides to an extent. The PCs are like perceived RINOs in Idaho. Some of them are simply attached to an older form of conservatism that doesn't worship market dogma and some of them are legitimate moderates. The Grits are like the old strain of moderate (DLC that control the party) and conservative Democrats (assorted legislators, Cecil Andrus). The NDP/CCF are like the up and coming progressive Democrats of Boise but who have had a long past in various populist and labor movements.

I'm probably really off base here though.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on April 06, 2012, 01:55:54 PM
Yeah, Alberta would pretty clearly be about R+10 or so, maybe a little more, if it were a state.

This election's sort of interesting in that you've kinda got a competition between soft-communitarians and soft-libertarians.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 06, 2012, 03:03:59 PM
Yeah, Alberta would pretty clearly be about R+10 or so, maybe a little more, if it were a state.

This election's sort of interesting in that you've kinda got a competition between soft-communitarians and soft-libertarians.

Alberta is politically much like the American states that it borders (the Dakotas, Montana, Idaho, et al.), yes?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 06, 2012, 03:21:49 PM
It'll be interesting to see how Mormons vote this time.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 06, 2012, 03:24:56 PM
It'll be interesting to see how Mormons vote this time.
There is a significant(>1%) Mormon population to form a sample size in exit polls that won't have a huge margin of error in Alberta?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 06, 2012, 03:30:55 PM
It'll be interesting to see how Mormons vote this time.
There is a significant(>1%) Mormon population to form a sample size in exit polls that won't have a huge margin of error in Alberta?

Alberta is 1.72% Mormon, but I wasn't really referring to exit polls; they're geographically concentrated enough that it should be possible to tell from the election results.

There's no detailed religious information available for rural areas, but Lethbridge in 2001 was 8.6% Mormon (http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census01/products/standard/themes/Rp-eng.cfm?TABID=1&LANG=E&APATH=3&DETAIL=0&DIM=0&FL=A&FREE=0&GC=0&GK=0&GRP=1&PID=55822&PRID=0&PTYPE=55430,53293,55440,55496,71090&S=0&SHOWALL=0&SUB=0&Temporal=2001&THEME=56&VID=0&VNAMEE=&VNAMEF=).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 06, 2012, 05:54:15 PM
Mormons will go WRP. Almost all of them are in the Taber-Warner-Cardston riding, which might be a plurality mormon, if not a majority. It was the only AA riding back in 2004.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: adma on April 06, 2012, 06:11:58 PM
I think your Canadian bias is coming out here. :P

The WRP is almost a carbon copy of the latest dominant wave of movement conservatism down here in the states. It does have a distinctly western flavor and reminds me a lot of the modern Idaho GOP's rhetoric. In general, Albertan politics reminds me of Idahoan politics in style, rhetoric and even the demographic divides to an extent. The PCs are like perceived RINOs in Idaho.

You mean like (if we go a state southward) Jon Huntsman Republicans?

Even so, it's hard for me to concile the WRP that aggressively with, if we may take an Idaho example, the "Helen Chenoweth" school of nutbar Republicanism...


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 06, 2012, 09:22:27 PM
Would the Idaho Republicans say the same thing?: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/04/06/albertavotes2012-smith-abortion-response-friday.html



Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 07, 2012, 03:03:37 PM
I have created an Alberta map gallery, including maps of provincial elections going back to 1997: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/p/alberta.html

I would love to make 1993 and 1989 as well (very interesting elections), but I don't have any maps from those years.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 07, 2012, 07:00:17 PM
Fantastic job, mate!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 07, 2012, 07:26:58 PM
Most personable party leader ever?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5P5OxlP6KY


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 07, 2012, 07:27:52 PM

Thanks. Ive added federal maps to going back to 1997 as well. I'll do more later, if I get the time.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 07, 2012, 07:30:11 PM
Most personable party leader ever?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5P5OxlP6KY

I remember that. It was right after she became leader.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 08, 2012, 01:20:17 PM
Added the 2004 Senate nominee map:

()


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 08, 2012, 04:14:28 PM
Getting nasty out there.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/alberta/Tories+Wildrose+Campaign+erupts+into+words/6426374/story.html



Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 09, 2012, 09:34:41 AM
Because no one wants to be left out of a ruckus

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/04/06/albertavotes2012-mason-letter-healthcare-wildrose.html



Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Lincoln Republican on April 09, 2012, 10:55:56 PM
Have the Progressive Conservatives gone into panic mode yet?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 09, 2012, 11:04:20 PM
I've updated the blank map in the gallery (and also on the first page of this thread) to remove the Greens as an option, and to change the Wildrose colour to green.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 09, 2012, 11:30:54 PM
I wonder what would be the game plan for Liberals or Dippers in Alberta? They obviously can't rise above 30% even if the other party collapses. It seems to me at least Canada is somewhat swing able unlike a lot of US. Try to move to the center(closer to Tories) and attempt to assistance their character based on scandals/corruption/etc?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 09, 2012, 11:43:16 PM
New prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april.html



Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 10, 2012, 01:42:18 AM
New prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april.html


Does Calgary really vote that uniformly?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 10, 2012, 02:09:32 AM
New prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april.html


Does Calgary really vote that uniformly?

I think this link (http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/electoral-maps-2011-federal-election-poll-poll-results) to Krago's poll-by-poll maps has been posted previously. Scroll down to Calgary. I believe there are some provincial ones out there, too.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 10, 2012, 03:29:32 AM
New prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april.html


Does Calgary really vote that uniformly?

I think this link (http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/electoral-maps-2011-federal-election-poll-poll-results) to Krago's poll-by-poll maps has been posted previously. Scroll down to Calgary. I believe there are some provincial ones out there, too.
Pretty anomalous.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 10, 2012, 07:23:24 AM
Calgary is like one big suburb. There are a few areas that are more left leaning, but they will be drowned in roses.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 10, 2012, 08:07:13 AM
I wonder what would be the game plan for Liberals or Dippers in Alberta? They obviously can't rise above 30% even if the other party collapses. It seems to me at least Canada is somewhat swing able unlike a lot of US. Try to move to the center(closer to Tories) and attempt to assistance their character based on scandals/corruption/etc?

Hmmm from what i have been seeing (basically monitoring the Edmonton Journal, CBC, Globe) the Liberals are trying to out-NDP-the-NDP running on planks like eliminating Tuition (i think this is geared to holding Edmonton Riverview home of UofAlberta campus). The NDP is playing two familiar cards; Health care and a newer Jackish "lets all play civil and nice" approach. The NDP presented the most moderate and cost effective platform (nothing splashy like the WR or tories). The NDP is playing to its base, going after the Liberal supporters... the Liberals are just trying to hold on for dear life. Of the two, the NDP has the most momentum or vigure from what ive seen of the CBC news coverage.
And yup, Hatman has it right... the big difference between Edmonton and Calgary is that Calgary is one sprawling suburb, like Mississauga with more offices; edmonton has a urban city feel in the core and Strathcona areas from what my ALberta friends tell  me


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hash on April 10, 2012, 08:33:09 AM
Edmonton-Riverview is held by the Liberals, not the NDP.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 10, 2012, 08:49:58 AM
Edmonton-Riverview is held by the Liberals, not the NDP.

... i know, i said "holding" Edmonton-Riverview. With Taft gone, it makes this riding more vulnerable for the Liberals, the only "safe" Liberal seat would probably be Centre in large part to Blakemann (one n?)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 10, 2012, 02:12:43 PM
All the subtlety of a train derailment.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/alberta-tories-play-race-card-call-wildrose-party-of-old-white-men-in-election-146856345.html


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on April 10, 2012, 02:16:54 PM
Were the PCs this left-wing before the election?  They're starting to sound like Elizabeth Warren or something.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 10, 2012, 02:24:52 PM
Were the PCs this left-wing before the election?  They're starting to sound like Elizabeth Warren or something.

They were usually squishy centrists, but never to my knowledge had they tried playing the demographic cards. This could well be yet another self-nuking. Redford will be asked about this at the debate- whether she'll weasel, apologize or defend I don't know. What I do know is that they richly deserve what's coming to them.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 10, 2012, 04:59:46 PM
It's amusing how left wing the Liberals are considering their leader is a former Tory.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 10, 2012, 05:01:09 PM
It's amusing how left wing the Liberals are considering their leader is a former Tory.

(Insert joke about converts here)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 10, 2012, 07:35:56 PM
It's amusing how left wing the Liberals are considering their leader is a former Tory.

He never struck me as that ideological, if anything he seemed more like an opportunist and only run under the PC banner so as to have an influence in government and when that failed, took his marbles and went over to the Liberals.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 10, 2012, 08:16:35 PM
Things are getting interesting...

New Leger poll:

WRP: 35.5 (-6)
PC: 34 (-)
NDP: 13 (+1)
Lib: 12.5 (+3)

Edmonton (the media fabricated NDP surge in the city has created just that...)
PC: 33 (-4)
WRP: 24 (-1)
NDP: 23 (+3)
Lib: 15 (+3)

Calgary
WRP: 43 (-5)
PC: 29 (-4)
Lib: 16 (+5)
NDP: 8 (+1)

Rest
PC: 41 (+11) !!!
WRP: 40 (-14)
NDP: 8 (+1)
Lib: 6 (+1)

Junk poll, conducted over Easter, or reality?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 10, 2012, 08:25:28 PM
Until we see confirmation, junk poll. Last I checked Wildrose didn't self-nuke over the weekend.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 10, 2012, 08:37:30 PM
In the event of a minority government (i'm not sure what the convention is in Canada, you guys are more experienced in minority governments), surely the Liberals and the NDP give confidence to the PCs rather than let Wildrose in, right?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 10, 2012, 08:39:02 PM
In the event of a minority government (i'm not sure what the convention is in Canada, you guys are more experienced in minority governments), surely the Liberals and the NDP give confidence to the PCs rather than let Wildrose in, right?

Yep. Redford's a McGuinty Liberal, so Sherman won't have much trouble having his demands met.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 10, 2012, 09:35:49 PM
Could the right-wing vote be split enough that NDP and Liberals actually have some power? Wildrose might actually move Alberta to the left!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 10, 2012, 09:47:10 PM
Well, in the extremely unlikely event of a minority government, I suppose it's possible for either of the Libs or NDP to form the balance of power. Perhaps propping up a Tory government. That would be weird. However, the WRP and the PCs would have to divide nearly equally to get that to happen.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 10, 2012, 09:52:30 PM
Well, in the extremely unlikely event of a minority government, I suppose it's possible for either of the Libs or NDP to form the balance of power. Perhaps propping up a Tory government. That would be weird. However, the WRP and the PCs would have to divide nearly equally to get that to happen.
Yea but that would lead to a lot of face palming by Albertans if they elect a more left-wing government on accident by voting WRP.  Also Edmonton is winnable by red/orange, so that is like 20% of total seats.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 10, 2012, 09:58:31 PM
Well, in the extremely unlikely event of a minority government, I suppose it's possible for either of the Libs or NDP to form the balance of power. Perhaps propping up a Tory government. That would be weird. However, the WRP and the PCs would have to divide nearly equally to get that to happen.
Yea but that would lead to a lot of face palming by Albertans if they elect a more left-wing government on accident by voting WRP.

Living in a province where your choices are the PCs and the Wildrose is reason enough to face palm, nevermind accidentally electing a government.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on April 11, 2012, 03:45:06 AM
Calgary is like one big suburb. There are a few areas that are more left leaning, but they will be drowned in roses.
What's with the Liberal strength in the city's northeast? Not where you'd expect it.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 11, 2012, 04:02:31 AM
Calgary is like one big suburb. There are a few areas that are more left leaning, but they will be drowned in roses.
What's with the Liberal strength in the city's northeast? Not where you'd expect it.

High number of immigrants from South Asia (my understanding is Vietnam and more recently, India). I think lots of manufacturing up there, too, and aircraft noise from the airport. I'll try to post a link to the demographic maps thread (although it's listed in the "special threads" thread).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 11, 2012, 05:33:00 AM
Here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=144685.0) is the demographic thread. There are some federal maps of Calgary near the bottom of the first page and some additional language maps on the second page. You'll note the combination of generally high % of low income, low % of high income, high number of manufacturing employees, low number with degrees, high number of trades, etc. Additionally, in the language maps, the highest proportion speaking a non-official language at 35% (the next highest is below 30%).

I asked my brother-in-law about it and he said mostly the immigrants are Indian, but I asked about Vietnamese and he said you can get good Vietnamese food there. Also a large number of generally low income immigrants, including from Europe.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on April 11, 2012, 05:49:32 AM
So I guess the complete lack of red in the city centre is the only genuinely surprising bit. :)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 11, 2012, 07:06:20 AM
So I guess the complete lack of red in the city centre is the only genuinely surprising bit. :)

Possibly vote splitting with the NDP? It's fairly red at the provincial level. Perhaps hometown advantage for Harper? Or low expectations for the Liberals leading to low turnout?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 11, 2012, 07:37:35 AM
A tale of two cities... nothing new to us

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/04/10/albertavotes2012-vote-compass-edmonton-calgary-differences.html

Calgary's "centre" or the cities core is all Liberal, they held all the seats under the old distribution and if they can work their vote they may be able to hold one or two. Except Currie which was Taylors seat and he sits as an Alberta Party member but ain't running. Interestingly the seats the Liberals hold were the one the NDP held in the 80s (Mountain View and McCall as its called now).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 11, 2012, 04:00:24 PM
Filed under "no sh**"


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 11, 2012, 05:24:46 PM
1993 election map :)

()


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 11, 2012, 05:30:44 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_1917
That's a lot of clicking(starting with 2008).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 11, 2012, 08:35:44 PM
1989

()


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 11, 2012, 09:08:39 PM
Back to polls now, the Leger poll was most definitely an outlier. 2 new polls:

Forum Research

WRP: 43 (n/c)
PC: 31 (+2)
NDP: 11 (+1)
Lib: 10 (-3)

ThinkHQ

WRP: 43 (n/c)
PC: 29 (-1)
NDP: 13 (+1)
Lib: 12 (+1)

so yeah, no major shifts...

ThinkHQ breakdown

Edmonton:
WRP: 30 (-1)
PC: 30 (n/c)
NDP: 18 (+1)
Lib: 17 (-1)

Calgary:
WRP: 48 (+1)
PC: 26 (-3)
Lib: 13 (+2)
NDP: 10 (+3)

Rest:
WRP: 49
PC: 31
NDP: 11
Lib: 5

Forum Research

Edmonton
PC: 32 (-1)
WRP: 29 (+3)
NDP: 18 (n/c)
Lib: 16 (n/c)

Calgary
WRP: 50 (+2)
PC: 32 (+6)
Lib: 8 (-6)
NDP: 8 (n/c)

North
WRP: 49 (n/c)
PC: 32 (+3)
Lib: 6 (-3)
NDP: 5 (-2)

South
WRP: 52 (-5)
PC: 25 (+1)
Lib: 10 (+2)
NDP: 9 (+3)

More statistical noise.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 11, 2012, 09:13:23 PM
Stat noise or are we seeing pro-PC strategic voting emerging?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on April 11, 2012, 09:20:36 PM
Ugh. I was really hoping the Socialists would place in fourth here, but it looks like the Grits are going to prevent that from happening.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 11, 2012, 09:55:39 PM
Ugh. I was really hoping the Socialists would place in fourth here, but it looks like the Grits are going to prevent that from happening.

Do you write for the Daily Telegraph c. 1959?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: DL on April 11, 2012, 11:05:11 PM
Stat noise or are we seeing pro-PC strategic voting emerging?

The Liberals are polling at about half of what they got in 2008 when they had something like 26% of the vote province-wide...but their vote collapsed before the election was even called. Some of it was probably a generic anti-PC vote that shifted to the Wild Rose and some of it probably went to the PC when Redford won the leadership since she is a Liberal masquerading as a PC in the first place. I think that at 10-13% the Liberals are at their floor and are unlikely to go any lower. The NDP is consistently up a bit from the 8.5% they got in 2008 and are likely to get 11-12% this time. They will almost certainly get more seats than the Liberals (who may get wiped off the map). I don't see NDP voters going PC at all.

The one thing that COULD still happen is that if enough doubts are raised about Danielle Smith - some WRA votes might go back to the PCs or to a seemingly safer anti-PC party like the Libs or NDP.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 01:49:11 PM
More debate stuff. Smith defused the SoCon strawman, so long as she doesn't gaffe she'll be fine.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Thomson+Leaders+debate+could+prove+pivotal+point+election/6445565/story.html


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 12, 2012, 02:50:16 PM
Debate is tonight. Wondering if I will watch it, since the Sens are playing their first playoff game tonight.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Boris on April 12, 2012, 05:02:41 PM
You're seriously considering Albertan politics over the NHL playoffs? wtf is wrong with you?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 12, 2012, 05:10:30 PM
You're seriously considering Albertan politics over the NHL playoffs? wtf is wrong with you?

Maybe because I love politics more. And, we're only talking the first round here. The Sens will probably lose anyways. Realigning elections in Alberta only happen every 40 years.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 07:38:46 PM
Fairly scripted so far. The format is panel questions.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 07:43:01 PM
Squabbling over healthcare.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 07:50:09 PM
Sherman's talking a lot about tax increases... and Alberta just posted a record surplus.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 07:54:56 PM
Redford's the one on defence, not Smith.

Mason: "You're stealing, Ms. Redford, from future generations because you don't have a way to pay for your promises." "You have thrown out your budget... bribing them with their own money."

:)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 12, 2012, 08:12:14 PM
Online link? I wanna see if WRP are clowns like the tea party in America.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 08:13:52 PM
http://www.cpac.ca/forms/index.asp?act=view3&dsp=template&hl=e&pagetype=watch&watchID=1e


Redford has been on the defensive throughout. Smith/Sherman/Mason are attacking her, not each other.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 12, 2012, 08:17:23 PM
http://www.cpac.ca/forms/index.asp?act=view3&dsp=template&hl=e&pagetype=watch&watchID=1e


Redford has been on the defensive throughout. Smith/Sherman/Mason are attacking her, not each other.
Shouldn't it be more important for the left-wingers to attack each other so that they can consolidate the left-wing vote and hope for a minority conservative government where they can influence the legislation? Or would that only work for one term and would to WRP sweep next round since most Albertans probably hate both liberals and NDP.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Volrath50 on April 12, 2012, 08:24:19 PM
My impressions: Redford sounds "smarter", but Smith sounds more personable. Brian Mason sounds solid, but the Raj guy sounds completely out of his depth.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 08:25:37 PM
http://www.cpac.ca/forms/index.asp?act=view3&dsp=template&hl=e&pagetype=watch&watchID=1e


Redford has been on the defensive throughout. Smith/Sherman/Mason are attacking her, not each other.
Shouldn't it be more important for the left-wingers to attack each other so that they can consolidate the left-wing vote and hope for a minority conservative government? Or would that only work for one term and would to WRP sweep next round since most Albertans probably hate both liberals and NDP.

See DL's post from earlier, he puts it better than I could.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 12, 2012, 08:26:13 PM
My impressions: Redford sounds "smarter", but Smith sounds more personable. Brian Mason sounds solid, but the Raj guy sounds completely out of his depth.
Yea I like how Mason decided to attack Raj on how his plan requires him to get elected 3 times in Alberta(lol). Also interesting how Canadians try to talk over each other without raising their voice(unlike US debates where someone tries to talk over the other person they always raise their voice).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 08:28:00 PM
My impressions: Redford sounds "smarter", but Smith sounds more personable. Brian Mason sounds solid, but the Raj guy sounds completely out of his depth.

He talked about tax increases for 45 minutes, but since he's hit his polling floor it probably won't do much damage.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 12, 2012, 08:28:19 PM
http://www.cpac.ca/forms/index.asp?act=view3&dsp=template&hl=e&pagetype=watch&watchID=1e


Redford has been on the defensive throughout. Smith/Sherman/Mason are attacking her, not each other.
So you are saying both NDP and Liberals have 8-12% floor and therefore have better chance of swinging Edmonton seats to them by attacking PC's instead of each other?
Shouldn't it be more important for the left-wingers to attack each other so that they can consolidate the left-wing vote and hope for a minority conservative government? Or would that only work for one term and would to WRP sweep next round since most Albertans probably hate both liberals and NDP.

See DL's post from earlier, he puts it better than I could.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Volrath50 on April 12, 2012, 08:39:18 PM
I sort of feel bad for Brian Mason. He sounds like he would be an effective politician, but his party is so far outside the Alberta mainstream that he's not going to get anywhere.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 12, 2012, 08:46:16 PM
Danielle Smith's certainly got that creepy Sarah Palin thing about her.

I'd hate to be an Albertan.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 08:47:53 PM
I like Mason as well. The one who I really can't stand is Sherman... ugh. Redford's just a weasel who does a bad job of it.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 08:49:41 PM
Danielle Smith's certainly got that creepy Sarah Palin thing about her.

I'd hate to be an Albertan.

Maybe because her voice sounds a bit like Fey's Palin impersonation...


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Volrath50 on April 12, 2012, 08:51:31 PM
I think it says something that, in Ontario, people I know almost seem more interested in the Alberta election than they were in the Ontario election...


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 08:52:59 PM
Will this debate change the polls? No. Otherwise I think we can all agree that Sherman had the worst performance.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Volrath50 on April 12, 2012, 09:02:53 PM
Will this debate change the polls? No. Otherwise I think we can all agree that Sherman had the worst performance.

Yeah, he was pretty terrible. The only thing I remember him doing is talking about raising taxes, and making wild baseless accusations using overblown rhetoric.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 12, 2012, 09:04:48 PM
Redford needed a knockout blow- something to fix her credibility gap or Palinize Smith. She didn't get it.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 12, 2012, 09:21:15 PM
Danielle Smith's certainly got that creepy Sarah Palin thing about her.

I'd hate to be an Albertan.

Maybe because her voice sounds a bit like Fey's Palin impersonation...

I think she's really condescending.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 12, 2012, 09:57:25 PM
Sherman would've been better if he didn't pause so much. He ran out of time on several caissons because he spent too much time pausing. I think this debate will further help the Liberals tank in this election, and it might boost the NDP a bit. Mason did a solid job, as did the two ladies. Very entertaining debate. I'm glad I watched it, and not the end of that disastrous hockey game.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 12, 2012, 10:25:01 PM
oh btw, I heard on CBC that Smith is pro-choice and pro gay marriage, so... :)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on April 12, 2012, 10:26:01 PM
oh btw, I heard on CBC that Smith is pro-choice and pro gay marriage, so... :)

She's also apparently been attacked by the PCs for advocating legalized prostitution.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 12, 2012, 10:27:22 PM
oh btw, I heard on CBC that Smith is pro-choice and pro gay marriage, so... :)

She's also apparently been attacked by the PCs for advocating legalized prostitution.

We might just have an actual libertarian-ish person in charge of part of North America in a few weeks. Be interesting to see how things pan out.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 12, 2012, 10:31:51 PM
Libertarianish, yes. But, he party wont be that Libertarian I don't think.

BTW, another poll (Corporate Research)

WRP 43 (-3) (jeepers, every polling firm has them at that number!)
PC 34 (+6)
NDP 10 (n/c)
Lib 10 (-2)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 13, 2012, 12:06:55 AM
What kind of name is Raj Sherman, anyway?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 13, 2012, 12:12:58 AM
What kind of name is Raj Sherman, anyway?

Lots of South Asians with English surnames. Think of Russell Peters.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 13, 2012, 09:08:21 AM
What kind of name is Raj Sherman, anyway?

Lots of South Asians with English surnames. Think of Russell Peters.

Remember... we were all english colonies at once point :) some more recent then others, some still can't shake it :)

So, some polling after the debate:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5587

Not a good night for Redford (-15 on the impressions scale)... but looking good for Smith (+ 10)and Mason (+27!)... i can see Liberals starting to run from Sherman now espcially after reading the observations here :P


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 13, 2012, 09:30:00 AM
LOL at the 11% who thought Sherman was the best speaker.

"Looked and sounded like a Premier" was an interesting question. Especially considering you have two women, and Indian and well, the NDP guy. Not traditional Premier qualities.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 13, 2012, 05:55:20 PM
LOL at the 11% who thought Sherman was the best speaker.

"Looked and sounded like a Premier" was an interesting question. Especially considering you have two women, and Indian and well, the NDP guy. Not traditional Premier qualities.

Sounds to me like the 11% made their mind up about that before the debate began... Perhaps 11% really is the Liberal floor this election?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 13, 2012, 06:25:55 PM
Probably. I mean, he talked about tax increases (not quite so suicidal as to be specific) for 45 minutes nonstop and the debate analyses hardly mention that. Yeesh.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 13, 2012, 07:21:49 PM
His message would have been better could he speak less choppily.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 14, 2012, 01:20:49 PM
A new Abacus poll:

WRP: 46 (+3)
PC: 29 (-1)
NDP: 12 (+1)
Lib: 10 (-2)

The poll also confirms that Liberal voters are heading to the Tories. 28% of '08 Liberals are now backing the Tories compared to a 40% retention and just 18% who are switching to the WRP. NDP voters aren't switching to the Tories though, only 12% are switching to them compared to 14% to the WRP (57% retention).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2012, 01:28:48 PM
A new Abacus poll:

WRP: 46 (+3)
PC: 29 (-1)
NDP: 12 (+1)
Lib: 10 (-2)

The poll also confirms that Liberal voters are heading to the Tories. 28% of '08 Liberals are now backing the Tories compared to a 40% retention and just 18% who are switching to the WRP. NDP voters aren't switching to the Tories though, only 12% are switching to them compared to 14% to the WRP (57% retention).

Could the Liberals be shut out? Also, does it mean anything seat-wise if the PCs drop below 30 and/or WRP hits 50?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 14, 2012, 01:32:14 PM
Good profile from the G&M.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/danielle-smith-is-she-albertas-sarah-palin-or-the-future-of-canada/article2402264/singlepage/#articlecontent

Lougheed & Getty endorse Redford.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Wildrose%2Bvictory%2Bwould%2Bgood%2BAlberta%2BCanada/6458494/story.html


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 14, 2012, 03:52:18 PM
I don't like the Sarah Palin comparisons, Danielle Smith is much more moderate, and is well... more well spoken. She knows her stuff.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 14, 2012, 05:09:25 PM
I don't like the Sarah Palin comparisons, Danielle Smith is much more moderate, and is well... more well spoken. She knows her stuff.

It's because she's a young, conservative woman with a strong personality. You don't get many like that.

And her voice sounds similar.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 14, 2012, 07:19:05 PM
Liberals switching to PC could mean a PC pickup in Edmonton-Gold Bar. Federally it voted Conservative over NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona, so I think it's more likely to be one of the areas which could possibly even see a swing to PC, especially if the Liberal vote continues to decline (and Earl makes the point of Liberal-PC vote switching). PC strength/Wildrose weakness in Edmonton probably makes this riding more favourable to the PCs than many other ridings.

It would be quite interesting if, despite losing swathes of ridings across the province, the PCs could actually gain a seat.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: The Vorlon on April 15, 2012, 02:06:42 PM
Not often you see a party die in Alberta.

Alberta had always has two possible governing parties.  The red Tories and the blue Tories.

For 41 years they agreed to run a joint candidate in the provincial election, this is the year the marriage fell apart.

Wild rose will get 50 something seats, the PCs the bulk of the rest.

Liberals could be wiped out, NDP will take a handful.

Objectively speaking smith and Redford were pretty close in the debate, but folks just like smith more as a person.

Barring a meltdown, this thing is over.



Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 15, 2012, 02:26:48 PM
A new Abacus poll:

WRP: 46 (+3)
PC: 29 (-1)
NDP: 12 (+1)
Lib: 10 (-2)

The poll also confirms that Liberal voters are heading to the Tories. 28% of '08 Liberals are now backing the Tories compared to a 40% retention and just 18% who are switching to the WRP. NDP voters aren't switching to the Tories though, only 12% are switching to them compared to 14% to the WRP (57% retention).

Strategic voting probably.  I know some people who went Liberal in Alberta but are going PC this time just to keep the WRP out of power.  Add to the fact Redford is more of a Joe Clark style Tory than one like Harper whereas Danielle Smith is probably closer to Harper although a little less experienced and more likeable.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 15, 2012, 02:29:53 PM
Liberals switching to PC could mean a PC pickup in Edmonton-Gold Bar. Federally it voted Conservative over NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona, so I think it's more likely to be one of the areas which could possibly even see a swing to PC, especially if the Liberal vote continues to decline (and Earl makes the point of Liberal-PC vote switching). PC strength/Wildrose weakness in Edmonton probably makes this riding more favourable to the PCs than many other ridings.

It would be quite interesting if, despite losing swathes of ridings across the province, the PCs could actually gain a seat.

Anybody have the federal results for each provincial riding.  It would be interesting to see how the federal parties fared.  Also in maybe another topic, we should try and do this for all provincial ridings across the country.  In Ontario, only the Northern Ontario ridings are necessary as the Southern ones are identical to their federal counterparts.  I also believe the Liberals won Calgary-McCall although I could be wrong, while I think the NDP won 2 or 3 in Edmonton federally.  I think they also took Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood despite losing Edmonton East as the NDP was strong in the southwestern corner of the riding.  I think Edmonton Centre went Tory federally although they probably got in the 30s only, but the NDP and Liberals I think split the centre-left vote here unlike elsewhere in the city.  Could be the effect of Laurie Blakeman as well as the holdover from Anne McLellan who although out of politics, still is quite popular.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2012, 07:33:29 PM
Den Tandt: No one should be surprised.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/04/15/michael-den-tandt-a-wildrose-victory-in-alberta-would-hardly-be-surprising/


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Lincoln Republican on April 15, 2012, 07:43:54 PM
Questions for EarlAW and RogueBeaver

One week to go, have the PC's gone into panic mode?  Or

Do they have some kind of blitz operation for the final week in an effort to pull this thing out of the fire?  Or

Are they resigned to losing the election and simply trying to salvage whatever they can at this point?

What do you think?

Thanks.  


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2012, 07:48:43 PM
They had one strategy with two parts: 1) Palinize Smith 2) Build flaming social-issues strawmen, mostly on abortion and gay marriage. Both failed. Barring any major reversal, they're headed for a "five-spiral crash", to quote GWB in another context.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2012, 07:55:29 PM
They have failed. Polling hasn't suggested any late movements... so far.

BTW, this is a great site whose webmaster just emailed me: http://changealberta.ca/winnablecandidates.aspx


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Lincoln Republican on April 15, 2012, 08:11:55 PM
Thank you RogueBeaver and EarlAW.

Much appreciated.

In that case, from what both of you seem to agree on, the election would appear to be all but over except for the vote counting.



Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2012, 08:14:42 PM
Thank you RogueBeaver and EarlAW.

Much appreciated.

In that case, from what both of you seem to agree on, the election would appear to be all but over except for the vote counting.



Yeah, the parties have been stagnant since the beginning of the campaign. No one has any momentum, so the WRP will probably coast to victory.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 15, 2012, 08:48:20 PM
Liberals switching to PC could mean a PC pickup in Edmonton-Gold Bar. Federally it voted Conservative over NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona, so I think it's more likely to be one of the areas which could possibly even see a swing to PC, especially if the Liberal vote continues to decline (and Earl makes the point of Liberal-PC vote switching). PC strength/Wildrose weakness in Edmonton probably makes this riding more favourable to the PCs than many other ridings.

It would be quite interesting if, despite losing swathes of ridings across the province, the PCs could actually gain a seat.

Anybody have the federal results for each provincial riding.  It would be interesting to see how the federal parties fared.  Also in maybe another topic, we should try and do this for all provincial ridings across the country.  In Ontario, only the Northern Ontario ridings are necessary as the Southern ones are identical to their federal counterparts.  I also believe the Liberals won Calgary-McCall although I could be wrong, while I think the NDP won 2 or 3 in Edmonton federally.  I think they also took Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood despite losing Edmonton East as the NDP was strong in the southwestern corner of the riding.  I think Edmonton Centre went Tory federally although they probably got in the 30s only, but the NDP and Liberals I think split the centre-left vote here unlike elsewhere in the city.  Could be the effect of Laurie Blakeman as well as the holdover from Anne McLellan who although out of politics, still is quite popular.

Krago did some great maps of city-wide federal vote, and the506 (http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/) also did poll maps of individual ridings (his show winner and also support for each party, but only within one riding, whereas Krago's only show winner, but across the whole city for geographic trends, so I'd recommend looking at both. Krago's maps are at the Rabble website (I think I posted a link last week in this thread) and the506 has his own website, which I've linked to above.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 15, 2012, 08:55:48 PM
Hatman, when's your final projection going up?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 15, 2012, 08:56:42 PM
They have failed. Polling hasn't suggested any late movements... so far.

BTW, this is a great site whose webmaster just emailed me: http://changealberta.ca/winnablecandidates.aspx

I saw that site last week, but it seems a bit heavily weighted for the Liberals. Of course, I'm glad when the "united" left gets it wrong, but I think if I were them, I'd switch E-Riverview and E-Gold Bar around. Both are largely covered by the E-Strathcona federal riding, but Gold Bar generally voted Conservative, while Riverview (south of the river) voted NDP federally. Of course, of the two, Riverview is probably the riding more likely to stay in the hands of either the Liberals or NDP, which is part of the reason I think the site is a bit biased to the Liberals.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2012, 08:59:03 PM
They have failed. Polling hasn't suggested any late movements... so far.

BTW, this is a great site whose webmaster just emailed me: http://changealberta.ca/winnablecandidates.aspx

I saw that site last week, but it seems a bit heavily weighted for the Liberals. Of course, I'm glad when the "united" left gets it wrong, but I think if I were them, I'd switch E-Riverview and E-Gold Bar around. Both are largely covered by the E-Strathcona federal riding, but Gold Bar generally voted Conservative, while Riverview (south of the river) voted NDP federally. Of course, of the two, Riverview is probably the riding more likely to stay in the hands of either the Liberals or NDP, which is part of the reason I think the site is a bit biased to the Liberals.

Well, I compared it to my projections, and I found it to be more NDP friendly than my predictions, so I don't know...

Hatman, when's your final projection going up?

I plan on two more projections, one tomorrow and one on Sunday.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 15, 2012, 09:07:42 PM
Fair enough - you have more reason to be sensitive to Liberal vs NDP bias than I do, indeed, anything other than a balanced assessment of those two parties is likely to benefit the party I support, so I'll accept you vouching for them.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 16, 2012, 12:20:01 AM
Can the PC's try to suppress Wildrose turnout aka the last page of the Rethuglican playbook? Seems to me it's a part of Harper playbook(the phone calls). This should be some good fodder for PC's.
()


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 16, 2012, 07:48:21 AM
This kinda stuff has started to come out... this "born this way" nonsense, and a link i posted earlier to a review done by daveberta.ca of some of the WR candidates. Now this probably plays better in Edmonton over Calgary but Smith might have a hard time playing the moderate card when those she leads appear more more and extremist, if the media picks this stuff up.
I've been hearing (from my bfs friends in Calgary, mostly located around the University in the NW) that they are planning to vote strategically for the PCs. this is a group who would otherwise vote Liberal...
Ya the polls are looking dead, its all going to depend on how the local riding-by-riding campaigns go.
whoever was looking for the Federal poll-by-poll votes, earls page is my one-stop-shop (nice plug eh :P)
http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/
 


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 16, 2012, 08:49:07 AM
:D Expect some different numbers in my next projection, as I compile a lot of feedback I have got, plus that strategic vote site, that seems to be getting some "on the ground" feedback which I wish I could get (well, I'm getting some at least).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 16, 2012, 08:59:32 AM
BTW, CBC did a poll that was released today (first post debate poll that I can see)

WRP: 43 (what else is new?)
PC: 36
Lib: 11
NDP: 9

Big surprise out of Calgary:
WRP: 45, PC 41 (lots of strategic votes from Liberals going to the Tories)
In Edmonton:
WRP 37, PC 31 (huh?)
Rural areas
WRP: 52, PC 31

Not sure how valid this poll is, I'd like to see some more post debate polls

ETA:

Calgary
WRP: 45
PC 41
NDP: 8
Lib: 5

Edmonton
WRP: 37
PC: 31
Lib: 19
NDP: 12 (yeah, right...)

Conclusion: Junk poll


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 16, 2012, 07:39:19 PM
New prediction :) http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april_16.html


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2012, 07:42:53 PM
New prediction :) http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april_16.html

:)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 16, 2012, 08:18:07 PM
As always, some great work, Earl!

I plan on sharing on Facebook later today (perhaps over lunch, or after 5), when all my work-related friends won't think I have it open at the office all day...


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 16, 2012, 08:20:46 PM
Excellent. Looks like I've already got a few ridings wrong though (read comments). But that's good. People don't complain when you get things right. And I want to get this right.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 17, 2012, 07:41:44 AM
I wasn't expecting this:

http://www.calgarysun.com/2012/04/16/alberta-ndp-boss-lands-lethbridge-leader

I don't think it will change the NDPs fortunes in Lethbridge, but might help their numbers esp in LWest where the NDP was really hoping they could have a strong showing. Could this push them over the top to win? probably not, but might help them bust through 20%

Great work Earl, Ya i was wondering why Calder was in the too-close-to-call... I think if anything this is the next NDP riding since Eggan has more "name cred" then Bilous (beverly-clearview) but i agree the NDP "should" be able to skate away with 4 at a minimum, 6 if the votes get split their way (Glenora and maybe Gold Bar... or Riverview or Manning).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 17, 2012, 09:33:20 AM
I saw that endorsement, and I gave the NDP candidate a 5 point bump there.

If comments on my blog are any indication, seats where the WRP will win are going to be rather random, and depending on local campaigns. Maybe I should troll the 308.com comments to see what people are saying there, as he gets more comments, and probably many of them (unfulfilled) complaints.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hash on April 17, 2012, 09:39:40 AM
I'm not sure Earl. Most comments on 308 are stupid mindless hacks who get into trite debates with other hacks, I haven't noticed a lot of more serious complaints about his predictions.

Anyhow, good luck with your predictions. I hope you do better than 308 so that you can prove that UNS/scientific/math-based predictions are stupid.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 17, 2012, 09:46:48 AM
I'm not sure Earl. Most comments on 308 are stupid mindless hacks who get into trite debates with other hacks, I haven't noticed a lot of more serious complaints about his predictions.

Anyhow, good luck with your predictions. I hope you do better than 308 so that you can prove that UNS/scientific/math-based predictions are stupid.

I've been getting stupid mindless hacks on my site too :( But, there have been some serious complaints as well. Some of them are "WHY DO YOU HAVE SUCH AND SUCH AHEAD THAT'S NOT WHAT'S HAPPENING", but that's ok, I realize that's how I would probably comment as well if it were someone else's blog.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: DL on April 17, 2012, 12:32:19 PM
Regarding Lethbridge, keep in mind that the federal NDP got 27% of the vote in 2011 and the federal riding is not just the city of Lethbridge but also includes a lot of rock-ribbed Tory rural areas. The University of lethbridge did a poll of the two Lethbridge provincial seats in February and they had the NDP at 20% in Leth-West back then.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 17, 2012, 12:38:57 PM
Regarding Lethbridge, keep in mind that the federal NDP got 27% of the vote in 2011 and the federal riding is not just the city of Lethbridge but also includes a lot of rock-ribbed Tory rural areas. The University of lethbridge did a poll of the two Lethbridge provincial seats in February and they had the NDP at 20% in Leth-West back then.

Good to know. I do warn you that a lot of that support was inflated because of the terrible Conservative candidate in the riding. But it is a good point. Outside of the Lethbridge proper, that riding has to be the most right wing in Alberta (or Canada, for that matter) because of all the Mormons.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 17, 2012, 02:00:19 PM
Forum Research Poll

WRP: 40 (-3)
PC: 33 (+2)
NDP: 12 (+1)
Lib: 10 (n/c)

Calgary
WRP: 46 (-4)
PC: 32 (n/c)
Lib: 11 (+3)
NDP: 6 (-2)

*scratches head*

Edmonton
PC: 38 (+6)
WRP: 26 (-3)
NDP: 18 (n/c)
Lib: 13 (-3)

This makes more sense

North
WRP: 41
PC: 32
NDP: 19 (!)
Lib: 5

Tightening up. Small sample size though.

Central
WRP: 50
PC: 30
NDP: 10
Lib: 5

South
WRP: 49
PC: 26
NDP: 10
Lib: 8






Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 17, 2012, 02:05:58 PM
What's going on? Is it that homophobe's blog comments, stat noise? :puzzled:


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on April 17, 2012, 02:09:16 PM
This election is probably somewhat hard to poll as it's a new alignment. I wouldn't read anything into minor swings.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Phony Moderate on April 17, 2012, 02:54:09 PM
What's going on? Is it that homophobe's blog comments, stat noise? :puzzled:

It's an election that happens to be taking place within the country of Canada. ;)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 17, 2012, 04:03:50 PM
What's going on? Is it that homophobe's blog comments, stat noise? :puzzled:

Now that I compare it, the last FR poll had the Liberals much lower in Calgary than other pollsters, so that's more of a correction than a gain in support.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 17, 2012, 05:17:00 PM
Do you really expect Calgary to be almost all WRP? I'd expect at least ~5 PC seats in there. I'd expect at least 15 PC seats, just from the Calgary and Edmonton burbs & city, just because of Liberal strategical voting and variance in similar ridings based on dumb things WRP candidates say.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 17, 2012, 07:02:12 PM
Leaders losing control?

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Exhausted+parties+losing+control+says+political+analyst+week+before/6469227/story.html

Shocker.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Wildrose%20Party,%20Danielle%20Smith,%20favoured%20by%20Tory%20MPs,%20says%20Rob%20Anders/6467641/story.html

Not so shocking.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Alison+Redford+condemns+Wildrose+party+having+small+Alberta+vision/6473474/story.html

Assholes. Leave Klein alone.

http://blogs.calgaryherald.com/2012/04/15/kleins-wife-friends-angry-at-pc-criticism-of-sick-ex-premier/


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 17, 2012, 07:04:47 PM
Do you really expect Calgary to be almost all WRP? I'd expect at least ~5 PC seats in there. I'd expect at least 15 PC seats, just from the Calgary and Edmonton burbs & city, just because of Liberal strategical voting and variance in similar ridings based on dumb things WRP candidates say.

This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 17, 2012, 07:14:30 PM
Do you really expect Calgary to be almost all WRP? I'd expect at least ~5 PC seats in there. I'd expect at least 15 PC seats, just from the Calgary and Edmonton burbs & city, just because of Liberal strategical voting and variance in similar ridings based on dumb things WRP candidates say.

This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.
Well you could try to use demographic maps and past voting behavior to see where the bigger swings would happen. Also see which candidates made the news(positive or negative) and give them handicap/penalty swing. Like for example the person I posted earlier in this thread. I guess you will still be off by a lot since you can't asses what's happening on the local level that doesn't make the news.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 17, 2012, 07:20:02 PM
Do you really expect Calgary to be almost all WRP? I'd expect at least ~5 PC seats in there. I'd expect at least 15 PC seats, just from the Calgary and Edmonton burbs & city, just because of Liberal strategical voting and variance in similar ridings based on dumb things WRP candidates say.

This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.
Well you could try to use demographic maps and past voting behavior to see where the bigger swings would happen. Also see which candidates made the news(positive or negative) and give them handicap/penalty swing. Like for example the person I posted earlier in this thread. I guess you will still be off by a lot since you can't asses what's happening on the local level that doesn't make the news.

I could, but that's very time consuming. Plus, most of Calgary is fairly demographically homogenous, so the only thing preventing most ridings from going WRP will be candidate strength. I'm going to let others let me know what's going on. That way, if I get something wrong, I can say "well, so and so said this" or "no one said anything" ;)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 17, 2012, 07:31:50 PM
Do you really expect Calgary to be almost all WRP? I'd expect at least ~5 PC seats in there. I'd expect at least 15 PC seats, just from the Calgary and Edmonton burbs & city, just because of Liberal strategical voting and variance in similar ridings based on dumb things WRP candidates say.

This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.
Well you could try to use demographic maps and past voting behavior to see where the bigger swings would happen. Also see which candidates made the news(positive or negative) and give them handicap/penalty swing. Like for example the person I posted earlier in this thread. I guess you will still be off by a lot since you can't asses what's happening on the local level that doesn't make the news.

I could, but that's very time consuming. Plus, most of Calgary is fairly demographically homogenous, so the only thing preventing most ridings from going WRP will be candidate strength. I'm going to let others let me know what's going on. That way, if I get something wrong, I can say "well, so and so said this" or "no one said anything" ;)
Well you could at least change the prediction of total seats to be a bit more PC favorable since the random swings are likely to favor them, and say give a statistical 66% confidence interval ;) instead of just counting up the seats as based on a uniform swing. I don't think Alberta will have a jihad with 70 extreme right-wingers getting elected. Even in 2010 in US, some southern states still voted democratic(Arkansas), and I don't think this is nearly as serious.
I'd put the 2(95% confidence) deviation number of Wildrose seats between 45-65.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: adma on April 17, 2012, 08:33:19 PM
This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.

At this point, the least-likelies are probably the seats of Mason and Notley, if that can be taken as a hint-hint.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 17, 2012, 09:18:50 PM
This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.

At this point, the least-likelies are probably the seats of Mason and Notley, if that can be taken as a hint-hint.


Duly noted ;)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 18, 2012, 07:25:51 AM
http://toryorwildrose.ca/
... have some fun with that :P

This elections sounds a lot like Quebec last May except not so much of a surprise... where can the NDP win? what ridings? by how much?

There is quite a bit of bad publicity out now in the major media outlets, from the homophobic-ness, to the racist mildly white supremacist comments, to the denial of climate change research... not sure how badly thats going to affect them, the polls don't seem to be indicating much movement so...



Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 18, 2012, 08:54:37 AM
I got 9/13 before it started asking the same questions again :D


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on April 18, 2012, 09:31:32 AM
http://toryorwildrose.ca/
... have some fun with that :P

lol really showing their progressiveness, there.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 18, 2012, 10:16:09 AM
There is quite a bit of bad publicity out now in the major media outlets, from the homophobic-ness, to the racist mildly white supremacist comments, to the denial of climate change research... not sure how badly thats going to affect them, the polls don't seem to be indicating much movement so...

It will make them rise in polls, since their average voter is homophobic, christian supremacist and a oppose science because it isn't religion.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 18, 2012, 11:04:49 AM
There is quite a bit of bad publicity out now in the major media outlets, from the homophobic-ness, to the racist mildly white supremacist comments, to the denial of climate change research... not sure how badly thats going to affect them, the polls don't seem to be indicating much movement so...

It will make them rise in polls, since their average voter is homophobic, christian supremacist and a oppose science because it isn't religion.

I fiund myself tempted to agree with you... but from the Albertans i know (including my bf who went to UofCalgary) they aren't that homophobic, facistist as WR makes them seem... at least in the cities where they are more small-c economic conservatives. Its odd cause Calgary/edmonton are home to large south asian groups and edmonton has a large ethiopian population.
BUT just like we can't assume that all those who in PQ voted NDP are actually social democrats, cause esp in the rural ridings some are equally right-wing and religious you just add in francophone


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 18, 2012, 11:08:10 AM
I'm getting flashbacks to 8 years ago.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 18, 2012, 11:37:55 AM
So is there any actual cause for serious concern on the part of Wildrose at this point or is that little bit of poll movement just noise?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 18, 2012, 02:59:08 PM
Leger poll:

I'm not showing the change numbers, because their last poll was the Easter poll that was sh**

WRP: 42 
PC: 36 (highest from a credible poll late March)
NDP: 10
Lib: 9

Edmonton
PC: 35
WRP: 33
NDP: 17
Lib: 13

Calgary
WRP: 43
PC: 40 (ok, so this is sounding a lot more like that CBC poll)
Lib: 9
NDP: 5

Rest:
WRP: 49
PC: 34
NDP: 8
Lib: 6

Poll also shows that 27% of Calgarians will be voting strategically.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 18, 2012, 03:13:42 PM
BUT just like we can't assume that all those who in PQ voted NDP are actually social democrats, cause esp in the rural ridings some are equally right-wing and religious you just add in francophone

Religious people in people in rural Quebec? Not really. Churches are being sold or downsized eveywhere in Quebec.
And not really right-wing. Northern Rural Quebec is quite Northern Rural Ontario.

But I'm getting your point. Some people are voting for change, not for ideology.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 18, 2012, 08:44:14 PM
This is getting interesting. Another 5 point surge of PC's in Calgary and 5 surge of NDP in Edmonton and it would be time to get the popcorn ready.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 19, 2012, 07:28:10 AM
BUT just like we can't assume that all those who in PQ voted NDP are actually social democrats, cause esp in the rural ridings some are equally right-wing and religious you just add in francophone

Religious people in people in rural Quebec? Not really. Churches are being sold or downsized eveywhere in Quebec.
And not really right-wing. Northern Rural Quebec is quite Northern Rural Ontario.

But I'm getting your point. Some people are voting for change, not for ideology.

Thank you, and i didn't mean to assume since my point was don't assume. Well rural people tend to more socially conservative maybe less "church" religious but can be just as god-burns-you-in-hell like. With quebec i find in some rural areas its more a language and "cultural" desire too keep the country as french white catholic as possible.
I'm already eating popcorn! If i were Mason (NDP) i'd start the chanting that the NDP is now the only opposition in edmonton to stopping the WR.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 19, 2012, 02:10:13 PM
Has anyone here heard of Janet Brown before? Her name rings a very vague bell to me. Predicting a WRP seat count in the 50s based on that Leger poll.

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/Wildrose%2Bprojected%2Bseats/6482255/story.html


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on April 19, 2012, 09:13:57 PM
Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 20, 2012, 04:35:40 PM
Analyzing the rest of the seats: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-analysis-rest-of.html


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: adma on April 20, 2012, 08:33:54 PM
Interesting with Doug Faulkner in Ft McMurray: a Wildrose candidate who ran for the federal PCs in 2000 and the federal Libs in 2004...


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Nichlemn on April 20, 2012, 09:36:44 PM
What's the most conservative provincial riding in Alberta (by federal Conservative vote)? Cardston-Taber-Warner, the only seat the AA won in 2004? How high would the federal Conservative vote be there?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 20, 2012, 09:57:31 PM
What's the most conservative provincial riding in Alberta (by federal Conservative vote)? Cardston-Taber-Warner, the only seat the AA won in 2004? How high would the federal Conservative vote be there?

It might be, but don't look at the 2011 election results to find that out, as the Tory candidate (now MP) ran a non campaign and took a big hit in the polls because of it. Cardston-Taber-Warner has been very open to voting for other right wing parties though. Alberta First got 26% of the vote there in 2001 while Social Credit got 18% in 1997. Both parties were border line fringe at the time.

Interesting with Doug Faulkner in Ft McMurray: a Wildrose candidate who ran for the federal PCs in 2000 and the federal Libs in 2004...

That's true. And now he'll probably finally get elected under a partisan banner (he's been elected before obviously, he's the mayor)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 21, 2012, 01:30:45 AM
What's the most conservative provincial riding in Alberta (by federal Conservative vote)? Cardston-Taber-Warner, the only seat the AA won in 2004? How high would the federal Conservative vote be there?

I believe the Wildrose leader ran in Cardstone-Taber-Warner last election, which could explain the higher vote there. The most conservative riding federally was Crowfoot. Provincially that's Drumheller-Stettler, Strathmore-Brooks and I think Little Bow. Maybe parts of other ridings. If I've misspelt any ridings or left out obvious provincial ridings in Crowfoot, I apologise. I'm not on computer and away from my maps and tables.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 21, 2012, 03:10:35 PM
What's the most conservative provincial riding in Alberta (by federal Conservative vote)? Cardston-Taber-Warner, the only seat the AA won in 2004? How high would the federal Conservative vote be there?

I believe the Wildrose leader ran in Cardstone-Taber-Warner last election, which could explain the higher vote there. The most conservative riding federally was Crowfoot. Provincially that's Drumheller-Stettler, Strathmore-Brooks and I think Little Bow. Maybe parts of other ridings. If I've misspelt any ridings or left out obvious provincial ridings in Crowfoot, I apologise. I'm not on computer and away from my maps and tables.

Exactly, all Drumheller-Stettler, western tier of Strathmore-Brooks (the Strathmore part), none of Little Bow, a small part of Battle-River--Wainwright (probably not much populated), east part of Wetaskiwin-Camrose (the Camrose part), most of Chestermere--Rocky-View (except Rocky view area) and eastern half of Olds--Didsbury--Three-Hills (the Three Hills half, which seems very rural compared to the other half.).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: adma on April 21, 2012, 05:43:31 PM
Crowfoot's "most Conservative" advantage is gained from having no scrap of Lethbridge/Medicine Hat urbanity or Banff/Canmore leftish resort-cosmopolitanism or big blotches of First Nations a la Macleod to skew the picture.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Vosem on April 21, 2012, 09:12:16 PM
Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.

Just read the "Policy and identity" section of their Wikipedia article; so they're pretty much American Republicans? Hopefully similar parties can do better and win across Canada.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 21, 2012, 09:19:23 PM
Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.

Just read the "Policy and identity" section of their Wikipedia article; so they're pretty much American Republicans?

As I've said, not quite. Smith is still pro choice and pro same sex marriage.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 21, 2012, 09:22:24 PM
Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.

Just read the "Policy and identity" section of their Wikipedia article; so they're pretty much American Republicans?

As I've said, not quite. Smith is still pro choice and pro same sex marriage.

Sort of by necessity, though, really.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 21, 2012, 09:24:20 PM
Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.

Just read the "Policy and identity" section of their Wikipedia article; so they're pretty much American Republicans?

As I've said, not quite. Smith is still pro choice and pro same sex marriage.

Sort of by necessity, though, really.

Hmmm... it would be interesting to see polls on those two social questions in Alberta. I suppose a majority would be in favour of both, but probably not a majority of WRP voters.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 21, 2012, 09:55:58 PM
Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.

Just read the "Policy and identity" section of their Wikipedia article; so they're pretty much American Republicans? Hopefully similar parties can do better and win across Canada.

Alberta's the only province that this can really happen in, and not because of Wildrose politics; it's just fatigue towards the PCs. There's no real alternatives in Alberta other than the Wildrose, as opposed to other provinces. Look at BC, the emergence of a new(ish) right wing party, the BC Conservatives, totally threw a wrench in the BC Libs re-election chances (not that they weren't gonna lose before they were a threat though) and lost two by-elections the other night because of it.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 22, 2012, 10:04:15 PM
Final prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-2012-election-final-prediction.html



Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on April 23, 2012, 03:39:12 AM
Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.

Just read the "Policy and identity" section of their Wikipedia article; so they're pretty much American Republicans? Hopefully similar parties can do better and win across Canada.

Alberta's the only province that this can really happen in, and not because of Wildrose politics; it's just fatigue towards the PCs. There's no real alternatives in Alberta other than the Wildrose, as opposed to other provinces. Look at BC, the emergence of a new(ish) right wing party, the BC Conservatives, totally threw a wrench in the BC Libs re-election chances (not that they weren't gonna lose before they were a threat though) and lost two by-elections the other night because of it.

Why are the BC Liberals the de-facto conservative party in the province anyways? Aren't the federal Liberals more left-wing? (although that isn't saying much).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: adma on April 23, 2012, 06:53:52 AM
Why are the BC Liberals the de-facto conservative party in the province anyways? Aren't the federal Liberals more left-wing? (although that isn't saying much).

The result of its usurping the Socreds in 1991--and then when Gord Campbell assumed the leadership a few years later, the BC Grits officially inherited the "anti-socialist-horde party of record" mantle from Social Credit.  (Which led the leader responsible for the Liberals' 1991 breakthrough, Gordon Wilson, to set up a breakaway party and later to join the NDP.)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 23, 2012, 07:26:45 AM
Why are the BC Liberals the de-facto conservative party in the province anyways? Aren't the federal Liberals more left-wing? (although that isn't saying much).

The result of its usurping the Socreds in 1991--and then when Gord Campbell assumed the leadership a few years later, the BC Grits officially inherited the "anti-socialist-horde party of record" mantle from Social Credit.  (Which led the leader responsible for the Liberals' 1991 breakthrough, Gordon Wilson, to set up a breakaway party and later to join the NDP.)

It goes back even farther then that to the 40s when the Liberals, SoCreds ran i want to say joint lists... but that might not be right. Anyway since then it has been all about stopping the NDP, so whichever "free enterprise" party was the strongest, or has the best leader or was the least corrupt was the defacto "right-wing" party. Everyone assumes the Liberals are leftwing; in reality they are socially liberal, fiscally moderate at best... and each province is a different flavour. we touched on this in the bc by-election thread


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 23, 2012, 07:34:21 AM
Interesting breakdown analysis Hatman! , i think we all gave up the liberals for dead but you have them winning two in calgary; granted those are the two most urban. progressive ridings in the city (Mountain View has NDP history too) and they ahve sitting Liberals so the campaigns can try and say the Liberals are the strategic vote. Lets hope that this is the case. If they win any is Calgary it has to be them two!
Edmonton, Raj losing Meadowlark? that will be a huge blow, and i don't disagree hes probably been a terrible leader for the party so far, but leaders do get some advantage (which i'm sure you have factored in :)
The air is a sense of change is coming, and there is high voter turnout at the advanced polls so, i'm waiting to see "whats-his-names" finals too...

I'm still crossing my fingers for a liberal-collapse-NDP-sweep :P but i'm an optimist :P


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 23, 2012, 08:22:06 AM
last poll i saw
http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/71110_Alberta_Issues_Poll_%28Forum_Research%29.pdf

Province
Wildrose: 41
PC: 32
NDP: 13
Lib: 10
AB Party: 2

Edmonton
Wildrose: 30
PC: 31
NDP: 23
Lib: 14
AB Party: 1



Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 09:55:16 AM
FR has a newer poll that shows very different numbers which came out after my prediction and thus will be ignored.

As for the Liberals, I seem to be the only one projecting they will win ANY seats let alone 4. But, I just couldn't see any other party winning those seats.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on April 23, 2012, 02:46:12 PM
The most recent poll on Wikipedia (released yesterday)
Wildrose-38%
PC's-36%
NDP-12%
Liberals-10%

Looks like a minority could be a possibility here. 


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 02:51:00 PM
My hypothesis: That poll was done on Sunday, and many WRP voters are probably religious and wont answer a poll on Sunday. As someone who has called people on Sundays for surveys, I can tell you there are people who get mad at us for calling on Sundays.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Nichlemn on April 23, 2012, 04:33:59 PM
When will results start coming in?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 23, 2012, 04:39:16 PM
When will results start coming in?

10 PM Eastern.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 23, 2012, 04:39:49 PM
Polls are closing at 8PM, so 10PM eastern and 2PM for you.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Nichlemn on April 23, 2012, 06:20:29 PM
Are there any betting markets for the election?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 23, 2012, 07:10:50 PM
This can be potentially interesting. I care more about how it'll influence federal politics than the actual results, though. I would say hardly. Switching Harper's PCs for another right-wing party, lead by a federal Conservative. Who cares?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 23, 2012, 07:16:00 PM
It won't have an effect on federal politics, though it will on federal policy. Smith wants the oil to go east.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 23, 2012, 07:46:18 PM
She must be stopped.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 23, 2012, 07:52:17 PM
The last time a dynasty was toppled... Ontario PC, 1985.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 23, 2012, 08:12:17 PM
This can be potentially interesting. I care more about how it'll influence federal politics than the actual results, though. I would say hardly. Switching Harper's PCs for another right-wing party, lead by a federal Conservative. Who cares?

There may be some federal implications, the oft-ignored-by-the-party "Conservative" part of its name has been a bit of a negative, I think, in some of the federal polls, because of the unpopularity of the provincial government. At least, Alberta always seems to be far lower in the polls than at the election (although I could be wrong).

BC will also be important federally. Again, the BC Liberals are probably seen as having more in common with the federal Conservatives, and the unpopularity of the provincial government, and the strength of the provincial NDP opposition, may be flowing through to NDP support in federal polls. From that perspective, it really doesn't surprise me that the NDP currently out-polls the Conservatives in federal polls in BC... and I suspect a provincial NDP government may help the Tories claw back some support in the province.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on April 23, 2012, 09:04:10 PM
CBC Election Night Coverage:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/live/2012/04/alberta-votes-election-night.html


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 23, 2012, 09:10:35 PM
Elections Alberta results page seems to be temporarily down. Here's the link, in case anyone wants to check it out once it starts working again: http://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResults.cfm


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Nichlemn on April 23, 2012, 09:17:36 PM
And votes coming in, PCs have very very early lead.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 23, 2012, 09:19:29 PM
CBC's full size map: http://www.cbc.ca/includes/provincialelections/albertavotes2012/map/fullscreen.html#/3


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 23, 2012, 09:22:25 PM
7-3 PC. What's going on?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Nichlemn on April 23, 2012, 09:23:40 PM
I'd wait for a few more polls to come in before jumping to any conclusions.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 23, 2012, 09:24:11 PM

What Nichlemn said. Little Bow was PC lead when the first poll came in.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Kevinstat on April 23, 2012, 09:24:34 PM
It's fun watching the map fill up.  9-5 PC now.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 23, 2012, 09:24:59 PM

I'm pretty sure only a few hundred votes have been counted provincewide.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Kevinstat on April 23, 2012, 09:26:58 PM
Lesser Slave Lake is a tie (34-34-6 NDP-1 Ind) now, but it's counted at the PCs leading.  There might be other ties in the PCs tally with such low vote totals.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 23, 2012, 09:27:47 PM
11-10-Lesser Slave Lake PC now.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 23, 2012, 09:31:31 PM
Edmonton-Gold Bar... One poll in, Wildrose at 100% (11 votes)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 23, 2012, 09:32:14 PM
Two for Red Deer-North, and Alberta Party leads with two votes. Hehe.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 23, 2012, 09:32:22 PM
The Alberta Party's at 100% (2 out of 2) in Red Deer--North, too.

ETA: Beat me to it.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Kevinstat on April 23, 2012, 09:32:57 PM
All five parties were leading in at least one seat at one point.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 23, 2012, 09:36:12 PM
Perhaps Smith won't get her gouvernment. Or maybe she will. It won't be a strong one if these results hold.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 23, 2012, 09:36:53 PM
What's happening? No recent poll predicted this.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on April 23, 2012, 09:38:35 PM
NO!!!!! THE PC IS SUPPOSED TO BE THROWN OUT DAMN IT!!!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 23, 2012, 09:38:54 PM
Calm down.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Nichlemn on April 23, 2012, 09:39:05 PM
How do early polls usually skew? If they're like NZ, where they tend to be small, rural booths, that's a bad sign for the WRA.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on April 23, 2012, 09:39:49 PM
I was scared to watch the results tonight... but I'm enjoying them so far :)

Come on PC's!!!!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 23, 2012, 09:40:45 PM
But what's happening? How can all the polls be wrong?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 23, 2012, 09:41:11 PM

Really?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Kevinstat on April 23, 2012, 09:41:25 PM
The election's over.  The PC's just passed a majority.

Okay, I know that's just seats led, but I thought I'd have some fun.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 23, 2012, 09:41:47 PM
Even the NDP surge was picked up last year.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 23, 2012, 09:43:54 PM
The election's over.  The PC's just passed a majority.

Okay, I know that's just seats led, but I thought I'd have some fun.

No seats have been called.

I'll be interesting to see tomorrow, especially in Edmonton and to some extent Calgary, how/if the NDP and Liberal vote went down to benefit the PCs. I suspect strategic voting.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 09:46:08 PM
Just got home. WTF. I will be eating crow tonight.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 23, 2012, 09:46:39 PM
Even the NDP surge was picked up last year.

Well, there is yesterday poll than everybody discarded as an outlier....


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 23, 2012, 09:46:55 PM
I have no idea what's going on or why.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Dan the Roman on April 23, 2012, 09:47:36 PM
Massive strategic voting. Will this mean a more left-leaning PC government, or will they move right from the scare?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 23, 2012, 09:47:54 PM
So the PCs still have a majority ? Good.

LOL, I can't believe I'm actually cheering at a conservative victory. ;D


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Kevinstat on April 23, 2012, 09:48:03 PM
Danielle Smith's only up by 2.75% in her own riding.  This isn't looking good for Wildrose.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on April 23, 2012, 09:48:24 PM
It looks like these are good results for the NDP so far.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 09:48:40 PM
NDP ahead in Lethbridge West = awesome.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 23, 2012, 09:48:51 PM
So the PCs still have a majority ? Good.

LOL, I can't believe I'm actually cheering at a conservative victory. ;D

Let's not get too excited yet, though I'm getting cautiously optimistic.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 23, 2012, 09:49:10 PM
Massive strategic voting. Will this mean a more left-leaning PC government, or will they move right from the scare?

It would be safe for them to be "more left-leaning" after this, especially with Redford. Doesn't mean they'll do it, but I wouldn't expect a rightward shift.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 23, 2012, 09:49:40 PM
NDP ahead in Lethbridge West = awesome.

Sort of out of nowhere. Liberal vote there completely collapsed and NDP % there has ballooned since the last election.


Liberal leader trailing in his riding.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 09:50:41 PM
NDP ahead in Lethbridge West = awesome.

Sort of out of nowhere. Liberal vote there completely collapsed and NDP % there has ballooned since the last election.


Liberal leader trailing in his riding.

Not unexpected, everyone kept saying they were targeting Lethbridge West. But still, amazing.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 23, 2012, 09:50:44 PM
So basically 2004 federal election all over again, but the polls didn't catch it?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 09:51:12 PM
Rachel Notley sounds just like Andrea Horwath.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 23, 2012, 09:52:57 PM
Massive strategic voting. Will this mean a more left-leaning PC government, or will they move right from the scare?

Well, no, as Wildrose was polling higher than 34%.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Nichlemn on April 23, 2012, 09:53:04 PM
No seats are declared, but it still seems hard to see how on aggregate the WRP win. What's the probability of a PC victory now?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 23, 2012, 09:53:42 PM
Link Byfield is back in front in Barrhead-etc.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 23, 2012, 09:54:19 PM
I just don't see the NDP winning Lethbridge-West.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Nichlemn on April 23, 2012, 09:54:42 PM
PC elected in 1 seat.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on April 23, 2012, 09:56:31 PM
Wow these ridings are close!!! It might be a long night.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 23, 2012, 09:56:36 PM
What's the average electorate of these ridings?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 23, 2012, 09:56:47 PM

NDP gets the second actual elected seat of the night. Finally glad to see some concrete results.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 23, 2012, 09:57:58 PM
At this point, I think the PCs will take it.  A bit of a surprise as the attack as being too right wing seems to work in Ontario, but not Alberta.  Witness the 2004 and 2000 federal elections where such tactic worked well in Ontario, but failed miserable in Alberta.  While the networks haven't called it, I cannot see the WRP pulling this off.  At least much like 1993 they gave the PCs a good scare.  The question is will they stay the main opposition or like the Liberals in 1993, will they wither away.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 09:59:46 PM
Disappointing results in Glenora so far.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 10:00:26 PM
Twitter says CTV is calling it for the Tories :o


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 23, 2012, 10:01:47 PM
Pretty clear the PCs have a majority.  CBC is always last to call it anyways, but I think it is fair to say the PCs have won it.  Lets just see how the final results pan out.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 10:02:25 PM
CBC not wanting to call it. I would be cautious too due to polls.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on April 23, 2012, 10:03:20 PM
CBC not wanting to call it. I would be cautious too due to polls.

Imagine how much egg will be on CTV's face if the WRP comes back.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Kevinstat on April 23, 2012, 10:03:48 PM
Raj Sherman is now leading in his riding.  Grits now tied with Dippers in seats won/leading.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 10:04:06 PM
Sherman was supposed to lose!!!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on April 23, 2012, 10:07:32 PM
Any chance the NDP can pick up enough seats from the PC to put the WRP over the top?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 23, 2012, 10:09:05 PM
Wildrose down to 17. lol


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 23, 2012, 10:09:26 PM
Can anyone else remember such a shocking result?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 23, 2012, 10:09:44 PM
Any chance the NDP can pick up enough seats from the PC to put the WRP over the top?

No...


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 23, 2012, 10:09:50 PM
Any chance the NDP can pick up enough seats from the PC to put the WRP over the top?

Considering that PC leads by almost forty seats, I doubt it.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 23, 2012, 10:10:35 PM
Any chance the NDP can pick up enough seats from the PC to put the WRP over the top?

Doubt it, looks like a PC majority either way.  The individual results will be interesting in the individual ridings, but I think at this point a PC majority is pretty much a foregone conclusion.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 23, 2012, 10:10:52 PM
Can anyone else remember such a shocking result?

Quebec, 1976? Lévesque had no speech for gaining power, since Bourassa reelected was very expected.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 23, 2012, 10:12:05 PM
Any chance the NDP can pick up enough seats from the PC to put the WRP over the top?

No...

I think in 1993, there was a similiar comeback as I believe the Liberals had an even bigger lead.  Also in 2004 federally if you look at Ontario only, you saw a similiar last minute shift from the Conservatives to Liberals.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 10:13:07 PM
CBC calls it - majority


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on April 23, 2012, 10:13:18 PM
CBC Calls Alberta - PC Majority Government!!!!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 23, 2012, 10:13:24 PM

/cheer


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 23, 2012, 10:14:56 PM
Congrats Alison.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 10:16:38 PM
Sherman is losing again.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 23, 2012, 10:16:53 PM
I really wish we had exit polls on this side of the border. Then you could at least know who shifted when.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 23, 2012, 10:17:22 PM
So does Smith get scalped for this? Does Redford wax in perceived power from having won the unwinnable?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 10:18:22 PM
What's turnout like? Perhaps a lot of nontraditional voters coming out of the wood works.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on April 23, 2012, 10:19:29 PM
This election makes me proud to be on the North American continent.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 10:20:16 PM
WRP leads in Calgary-McCall. Interesting.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 23, 2012, 10:20:43 PM
deja vu 2004 federally again?  In 2004 we had the same comments.  I think with polls when you have a high undecided then anything is possible.  And considering that the undecided was quite high that is probably the reason.  It seems the undecided more often than not tends to break in favour of the incumbent.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 23, 2012, 10:20:48 PM
Rob Anderson next WRP leader? Or do they need to target further North and go with someone like Link Byfield?

I'm sorry to see Ted Morton trailing.

Calgary-McCall... the only riding where PC is neither first nor second?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 23, 2012, 10:21:14 PM
Why are CBC's total numbers for 'leading' going down?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 23, 2012, 10:22:30 PM
Why are CBC's total numbers for 'leading' going down?

Possibly due to an increase in the first column - 'elected'?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 10:22:57 PM
Some of the seats that the WRP are winning in aren't the ridings that I would expect them to win if you told me how many seats they would be getting.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 23, 2012, 10:23:17 PM
Ahh, sorry, that's really obvious and I don't know why I missed it.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 10:23:51 PM
Liberals ahead in Calgary-McCall.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 23, 2012, 10:27:16 PM
That's what I think.

Ted Morton: Hopefully he wins. There needs to be a Blue Tory somewhere in that nest of McGuinty Liberalism. Who ever thought a female McGuinty could win in Alberta?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on April 23, 2012, 10:27:38 PM
I will take solace in Sherman losing his seat tonight after the disgusting strategic voting.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 23, 2012, 10:34:21 PM
Only 12 polls remaining to be counted in Fort Mac-Wood Buffalo and incumbent WRP (floor-crosser) is trailing by ~200 votes.

About half the polls counted in C-Glenmore, and the incumbent WRP (floor-crosser) is trailing by a substantial amount.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 23, 2012, 10:35:08 PM
I will take solace in Sherman losing his seat tonight after the disgusting strategic voting.

lol.

There was no way than Wildrose could win with 34%, so strategical voting changed nothing.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 10:36:26 PM
I think I'm at 43/87 correct. Just a few more WRP seats and I can get over 50%.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 23, 2012, 10:39:24 PM
Ted Morton has been defeated, so interesting the furthest right PC member has lost.  I often thought he would defect to the Wild Rose if they won and he won his seat.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 10:49:18 PM
C'mon WRP. One more seat. I don't want a failing grade!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 10:56:13 PM
LOL Paul Hinman is losing.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 11:02:54 PM
Battle River and Cold Lake swing back to WRP (both seats I projected would be close)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 11:03:48 PM
Battle River back to PC.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 11:07:03 PM
Bonnyville-Cold Lake back to PC


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Meeker on April 23, 2012, 11:10:16 PM
The WRP should probably just shut down.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 23, 2012, 11:15:38 PM
Elections Alberta has their page working: http://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResultsPGE.htm

And Senator-in-Waiting results: http://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResultsSNE.htm


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on April 23, 2012, 11:22:24 PM
It seems like Danielle Smith didn't have a concession speech written and Alison Redford didn't have a victory speech either.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 23, 2012, 11:30:04 PM
It seems like Danielle Smith didn't have a concession speech written and Alison Redford didn't have a victory speech either.

True enough, although probably best to just make an adhoc one anyways as polls have in many cases been wrong.  Its not impossible to make a good adhoc one, in fact good speakers can make one on the spot.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 23, 2012, 11:35:02 PM
Not the most disappointing result(that would have been Wildrose majority), but the second most disappointing result.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on April 23, 2012, 11:39:00 PM
Sherman is ahead by six votes.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Novelty on April 23, 2012, 11:49:47 PM
Hatman, will you be posting an analysis about how you and most everyone else got the results wrong?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 23, 2012, 11:55:38 PM
Hatman, will you be posting an analysis about how you and most everyone else got the results wrong?

Yup. I am doubly bad, as my numbers were the worst.

Anyways, I have a results page that I've updating: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/
I will update the map as each riding with 100% of the polls reporting come in.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Meeker on April 23, 2012, 11:56:57 PM
Is there really much more to say other than at the last minute everyone got cold feet?

EDIT: Well I guess it's possible all the polls had turnout models wildly off. Actually that seems pretty reasonable.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 24, 2012, 12:04:04 AM
PC probably had the greater voter database and therefore a more coordinated GOTV campaign.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 12:04:55 AM
Oops, it's here: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-2012-provincial-election.html

I've modeled my chart similarly to the one on this site :)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Novelty on April 24, 2012, 12:07:55 AM
So do they continue counting throughout the night?  Or will they call it a day and resume counting tomorrow?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 24, 2012, 12:09:22 AM
Either St Albert is over-populated following the redistribution, or there is incredible turnout up there (or both).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on April 24, 2012, 12:10:03 AM
You know I hate to point out the flaws with FPTP, but the WRP got screwed over majorly by it. The PC shouldn't have gotten 62 seats with 44% of the vote.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 12:11:54 AM
You know I hate to point out the flaws with FPTP, but the WRP got screwed over majorly by it. The PC shouldn't have gotten 62 seats with 44% of the vote.

Well, I predicted in the inverse :/

To answer your other question, they should continue counting. It's only 11:11 in Alberta


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 24, 2012, 12:13:32 AM
So do they continue counting throughout the night?  Or will they call it a day and resume counting tomorrow?

Yes, they count all tonight.
Anyways, around 90% of votes is already counted now, only a couple of booths aren't finished in most ridings.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 12:17:10 AM
Edmonton-McClung now 100% in


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 24, 2012, 12:21:12 AM
Raj Sherman finally elected by 118 votes.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Novelty on April 24, 2012, 12:22:34 AM
Heh, that was close.  I guess a lot of those who voted for him are personal votes instead of voting for him because he's the Lib leader?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Novelty on April 24, 2012, 12:28:21 AM
Wow, that's a huge swing to the PC there!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 24, 2012, 12:32:08 AM
Wow, that's a huge swing to the PC there!

The seat had a Liberal incumbent last time (which lost).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Novelty on April 24, 2012, 12:36:15 AM
The seat had a Liberal incumbent last time (which lost).
Lost to Sherman.  So it's interesting to see him win there.

BTW, according to CBC's website, 6 more seats with results pending, and confirmed results are 59-15-3-4 PC-WR-NDP-Lib


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 12:37:39 AM
lol at Fort Mac low turnout. I guess the Newfies there dont care about Alberta politics.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on April 24, 2012, 12:43:49 AM
Do you think the desire for change will be too great for the Tories overcome next election? It seems like their win this time was just a fluke.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 12:46:01 AM
I have no idea....

BTW the Alberta Party leader finishes third in his riding, as predicted.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 24, 2012, 12:47:20 AM
Do you think the desire for change will be too great for the Tories overcome next election? It seems like their win this time was just a fluke.

Perhaps. The reason of the turnaround is probably than voters got afraid of which kind of change they would get. Now, with 17 seats and the Official Opposition, they will be able to show themselves to the Albertans.

If they are good in opposition, they should win easily next time. If they are a bad opposition, being inconsistent and incompetent, then, no.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Novelty on April 24, 2012, 12:50:09 AM
Calgary - Greenway just pushed the PC to 60.  I'm surprised they've been able to cross this threshhold...

2 more seats to call, according to CBC, and the PC are leading in both.

60-17-4-4


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 01:01:19 AM
Lac La Biche, a riding that went Liberal in 1993 is the only WRP riding in Northern Alberta.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: trebor204 on April 24, 2012, 01:46:18 AM
Two for Red Deer-North, and Alberta Party leads with two votes. Hehe.

That must have been a mistake. I was watching CBC coverage and only had the AP leading for a just over 1 minute. Two Polls for a total of 2 votes. Checking the polling data with Elections AB the smallest poll only had 54 votes.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 01:48:48 AM
CBC seems to have stopped updating. According to Elections Alberta, the Liberals won Calgary-McCall. :(


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 24, 2012, 01:50:15 AM
I was doing a Wildrose map and a PC map to supplement Earl's winner map, but some of the ridings... first Elections Alberta says all polls are reporting, then they'll change and show not all polls reporting, then they'll show all polls reporting and new figures?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 24, 2012, 01:51:14 AM
CBC seems to have stopped updating. According to Elections Alberta, the Liberals won Calgary-McCall. :(

The data entry temp at CBC has probably been sent home to bed, so they don't have to pay him overtime...


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 02:17:19 AM
Ha. Well, Im off to bed now. Will have to update the map sometime tomorrow.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 24, 2012, 02:37:31 AM
Ha. Well, Im off to bed now. Will have to update the map sometime tomorrow.

I'm about to leave, too. I'll email you what I've done, in case you want to use any of it.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: trebor204 on April 24, 2012, 02:54:16 AM
()

()

()


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 24, 2012, 03:12:41 AM
Looks good, trebor, but I think Wildrose picked up Calgary-Fish Creek, as well, from what I can see.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: redcommander on April 24, 2012, 04:32:53 AM
Why is Edmonton so left-wing compared to the rest of the province?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 24, 2012, 05:54:17 AM
Did reckon that a surprise PC hold was just about possible, had not expected a surprise PC landslide. Interesting result.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Insula Dei on April 24, 2012, 06:08:11 AM
This was quite the UK 1992 moment, no?

I feel a bit sad I missed it. It's always nice to have an election where polls are so wildly off. It keeps the suspense alive.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: trebor204 on April 24, 2012, 06:16:48 AM
Looks good, trebor, but I think Wildrose picked up Calgary-Fish Creek, as well, from what I can see.

Calgary-Fish Creek  has now gone the the WAP

When I made up the map, there was only 1 Poll remaining, and the PCs had a 61 vote lead. The final poll did allow the WAP to win the riding bt 74 votes.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 24, 2012, 06:33:20 AM
Well, phew.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hash on April 24, 2012, 07:57:22 AM
Albertans are useless liars. Or they're even more fickle than French people.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 08:25:41 AM
Updated results map: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-2012-provincial-election.html

Complete with pie charts a la Dave Leip.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 08:36:51 AM
The Liberals are in 3rd place in PV now, but some of the outstanding polls are in NDP ridings, so I think the NDP will overtake the Liberals again (1000 vote difference)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Novelty on April 24, 2012, 09:39:40 AM
Wow, outside of the cities, there's almost a line dividing Northern and Southern Alberta.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: DL on April 24, 2012, 11:03:23 AM
The voting pattern in Alberta was remarkably similar to what we saw in Manitoba and Ontario...the party seen to be on the centre-left (within the context of that province's political culture - ie: PC in Alberta, NDP in MB, Libs and NDP in Ontario) swept the cities and suburbs while the party of the far right (PCs in Ontario and MB and WRA in AB) was relegated to being purely a rural phenomenon.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: lilTommy on April 24, 2012, 11:40:30 AM
The voting pattern in Alberta was remarkably similar to what we saw in Manitoba and Ontario...the party seen to be on the centre-left (within the context of that province's political culture - ie: PC in Alberta, NDP in MB, Libs and NDP in Ontario) swept the cities and suburbs while the party of the far right (PCs in Ontario and MB and WRA in AB) was relegated to being purely a rural phenomenon.

Similar rural split too... in all the cases, the North voted along the centre-left/left of centre line (PC in ALTA; NDP in MB; NDP/LIB in ON)

this really was a polls were dead wrong, and once people got to the polling booth they decided the devil they knew was better. Undecideds ran to the safety of the PCs... i knew the bad media coverage would have some impact, esp in the cities.. i just thought it would be a minority


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 24, 2012, 11:51:40 AM
This and Manitoba last year had the most shocking results (not in terms of popular vote for Manitoba, but seat count). Maybe Newfoundland too with the rise of the NDP, but that was expected.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 11:58:31 AM
Manitoba wasn't that shocking, it was my best prediction of the Fall (and 308 did even better). In fact, all the provincial elections in the Fall matched the polls more or less. This one didn't. At all. I don't care what spin the pollsters give.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 12:10:50 PM
With just one poll to go in the entire province, it looks like the Liberals will hang on to third place by 900 votes.

Senate race
Doug Black, PC - 16% "elected"
Scott Tannas, PC - 13% "elected"
Mike Shaikh, PC - 11% "elected
" (ahead by 7000 votes)
Raymond Germain, WRP - 11%
Rob Gregory, WRP - 11%
Vitor Marciano, WRP - 9%
Elizabeth Johansson, EVG - 6%
Len Bracko, Ind - 5%
David Fletcher, Ind - 4%
Ian Urquhart, Ind - 4%
Paul Frank, Ind - 3%
William Exelby, Ind - 3%
Perry Chanal, Ind - 2%


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 12:16:00 PM
The Evergreen Senate candidate is in 2nd place in Edmonton-Strathcona with 21 polls still to report. She could "win" it.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 01:52:14 PM
Turnout is 57%, extremely high for Alberta.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on April 24, 2012, 01:59:40 PM
So Wildrose is the South Alberta Party.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 04:17:24 PM
Map/chart complete: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-2012-provincial-election.html

I hope it is very Leipish.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: rob in cal on April 24, 2012, 04:34:30 PM
I wonder if one reason for the polls being so wrong is that there is a big pool of voters who were comfortable with both the PC and WR, and so were fluctuating around alot, kind of like US primary election polls were you can sometimes find big discrepancies.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2012, 04:36:51 PM
Yeah, it is kind of like a primary election, isn't it. I dont buy the argument that Liberals ditched their party at the last minute for the PCs, they got about what they polled. Most of the vote switching was from WRP to PC.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: adma on April 24, 2012, 06:54:40 PM
If the PC candidates lost 5 points to WRA in all seats, we'd be looking at a near-tie (or actual tie?) in seat count.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 24, 2012, 07:13:19 PM
This was quite the UK 1992 moment, no?

I feel a bit sad I missed it. It's always nice to have an election where polls are so wildly off. It keeps the suspense alive.

In a way, but in 1992, the ratings for the leaders gave it away. Major was relatively popular, Kinnock wasn't. Can't say that Alison's more popular than Danielle Smith...

The PCs did not deserve to win this (especially not by that margin) whatsoever, even again the Wildrose.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Nichlemn on April 24, 2012, 09:55:04 PM
WRP did badly in seats for losing by "only" ten points. How many FPP elections won by similar margins have resulted in such lopsided numbers? Conversely, the Liberals and NDP did pretty well for parties that won less than 10% of the vote. Just look at Calgary and Edmonton - the WRP beat the Liberals in both cities (by a significant margin in the former), but still won less seats.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 24, 2012, 10:02:45 PM
WRP did badly in seats for losing by "only" ten points. How many FPP elections won by similar margins have resulted in such lopsided numbers? Conversely, the Liberals and NDP did pretty well for parties that won less than 10% of the vote. Just look at Calgary and Edmonton - the WRP beat the Liberals in both cities (by a significant margin in the former), but still won less seats.

The only comparison I can think of recently would be Manitoba last year, where the PCs came within 2.5% of the NDP's overall vote share and gained absolutely nothing. The MNDP wound up gaining a seat to form their largest majority ever, despite losing 2% over their previous election showing. Just lucky seat distribution I suppose. (And similarly, the Manitoba PCs racked up the vote in southern/rural Manitoba, while gaining basically no foothold in the urban area/s.)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 24, 2012, 10:22:05 PM
As Marokai says, it's seat distribution rather than simply being FPTP. Even under preferential voting, WRP is unlikely to have gained many extra ridings. Only under a proportional system would they likely have had a substantial improvement in representation.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 25, 2012, 04:01:11 AM
Map/chart complete: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-2012-provincial-election.html

I hope it is very Leipish.

It is very well-done, yeah. :)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on April 25, 2012, 06:29:29 AM
How strange: one day, the far-right does far better in France than polls had predicted.  The very next day, they do much worse than polls predicted in Alberta. 


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Nichlemn on April 25, 2012, 06:37:16 AM
How strange: one day, the far-right does far better in France than polls had predicted.  The very next day, they do much worse than polls predicted in Alberta. 

The FN's type of "far-right" is much different from the WRP's type.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 25, 2012, 09:34:44 AM
How strange: one day, the far-right does far better in France than polls had predicted.  The very next day, they do much worse than polls predicted in Alberta. 

The FN's type of "far-right" is much different from the WRP's type.

Still though, he has a point. I suppose Albertans are less ashamed to back a right wing party like WRP, because they're well, Albertan. Maybe they were ashamed to say they'd support the Tories?

My theory is that a large majority of undecideds went PC. They made up their decision at the last minute. Also, the larger voter turnout means that people who dont normally vote came out of the wood work to stop Wildrose.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Leftbehind on April 25, 2012, 09:40:50 AM
You'd think it'd be the opposite - the type of disaffected Tory > WRP would be more likely to turnout, to my mind, than FN voters.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hash on April 25, 2012, 09:44:19 AM
The FN in 1984 might be something like the Wildrose, but the FN in 2012 is clearly nothing like the Wildrose. The Wildrose is closer to the Droite populaire of the UMP if you're looking for an analogy, though the xenophobia of course isn't there.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 25, 2012, 11:03:46 AM
You'd think it'd be the opposite - the type of disaffected Tory > WRP would be more likely to turnout, to my mind, than FN voters.

That was Ezra Levant's theory.

The FN in 1984 might be something like the Wildrose, but the FN in 2012 is clearly nothing like the Wildrose. The Wildrose is closer to the Droite populaire of the UMP if you're looking for an analogy, though the xenophobia of course isn't there.

There's a small bit of xenophobia, I'm sure. I know a large % of Albertans are racist. It's second nature for a lot of Albertans. I have some racist family members who live there... it's quite common to complain about those lazy injuns or the corrupt "pakis".


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on April 25, 2012, 12:13:06 PM
WRP did badly in seats for losing by "only" ten points. How many FPP elections won by similar margins have resulted in such lopsided numbers? Conversely, the Liberals and NDP did pretty well for parties that won less than 10% of the vote. Just look at Calgary and Edmonton - the WRP beat the Liberals in both cities (by a significant margin in the former), but still won less seats.

The only comparison I can think of recently would be Manitoba last year, where the PCs came within 2.5% of the NDP's overall vote share and gained absolutely nothing.
Last Jamaican election comes to mind. Blowout in the results map, semi-close in the vote shares.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: tpfkaw on April 25, 2012, 01:05:30 PM
There was that Venezuelan "election" in which the opposition won the popular vote but Chavez's party won 2/3rds of the seats...


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 25, 2012, 04:45:40 PM
I think the expectation that Wildrose would win meant that people were more cautious voting for them and considered how they would govern. The PC scare campaign managed to spook enough voters into going with "better the devil you know..." They probably now form a large-enough opposition that voters will be more comfortable with them next election (assuming no awkward gaffes).

I think their polls really shot up once the campaign was called, if I remember correctly. I could be wrong, but I seem to remember polling in the low-to-mid-twenties as recently as the start of this year. This result is still a ten percent improvement in on those figures. I think the polls represented decided voters, and I was reading with one of the final polls, a report of a high number of undecideds. Presumably the other polls were the same. If those undecideds were being excluded from the polls, and then predominately broke for the incumbents, that could explain much of the election-day swing (plus, the benefit of incumbency meaning better voter lists and therefore a stronger GOTV campaign). Those undecideds are likely also disaffected with the government, but just unwilling to vote Wildrose this time. This probably bodes well for WR next election, particularly with the outcome this time deviating so far from expectations.

I don't think strategic voting made much difference, except perhaps in E-Riverview and E-Gold Bar (I suspect some progressives in those seats are feeling pretty filthy at helping re-elect a PC majority). It will be interesting to see the C-McCall polls, but it would be ironic if Liberals voting strategically for PC almost managed to split the non-WR vote enough to almost elect the WR candidate.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 25, 2012, 06:31:44 PM
This is a far larger difference between polls and results than most, but it's no secret that unpopular government parties tend to underpoll.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on April 25, 2012, 10:32:21 PM
I know this is out of topic, and kind of silly to ask, but is Alberta is to Canada, like what the Southern US is to the USA?

All I know that province is all Con without any hope for any other party.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 25, 2012, 11:02:08 PM
Alberta is more like Texas or Montana.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 25, 2012, 11:04:26 PM
Earl and Hashemite both have maps up on their websites, but no one has uploaded one here, so I did:

2012 Alberta General Election Results

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Obviously this map shows the primary vote of the winning party in each riding. Bigger versions available in the gallery.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 25, 2012, 11:04:52 PM
2012 Alberta General Election - PC Vote

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Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 25, 2012, 11:05:37 PM
2012 Alberta General Election - Wildrose Vote

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Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 25, 2012, 11:06:36 PM
2012 Alberta General Election - Liberal Vote

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Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 25, 2012, 11:07:14 PM
2012 Alberta General Election - NDP Vote

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Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 25, 2012, 11:07:50 PM
2012 Alberta General Election - Alberta Party Vote

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Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 25, 2012, 11:08:24 PM
2012 Alberta General Election - Evergreen Party Vote

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Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 25, 2012, 11:11:32 PM
Excellent work, Smid. I was wondering if I was going to have to do those myself ;)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 25, 2012, 11:20:49 PM
Excellent work, Smid. I was wondering if I was going to have to do those myself ;)


Ha! Sorry to give you a fright! I was worried while I was finishing them that you were also working on them and that one of us would find the other had completed them and we'd double-up the work. Feel free to use them as you see fit.

Lesser Slave Lake surprises me. I'm sure I saw in the Census stats somewhere that it is majority First Nations, and I am always surprised it doesn't have a higher Liberal/NDP vote. PC vote was a smidgeon under 50% and Wildrose just under 40% (so both were nearly in the next-darker category).

I'd like to work on some Senator-in-waiting maps, but I'm still thinking about how to go about them, since there are three candidates per party and the NDP doesn't run.

Edit: Oh, and thanks for the compliment!


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 25, 2012, 11:37:55 PM
Well, take a look at my 2004 Senator map, Smid. It's in this thread, but also on my site under "Alberta maps".

BTW, I'm reading Hashemite's analysis on his site. Very well done (as always). I think I learned a bit or two myself, despite immersing myself in Alberta political history/geography these past few weeks.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 25, 2012, 11:53:30 PM
Well, take a look at my 2004 Senator map, Smid. It's in this thread, but also on my site under "Alberta maps".

BTW, I'm reading Hashemite's analysis on his site. Very well done (as always). I think I learned a bit or two myself, despite immersing myself in Alberta political history/geography these past few weeks.

I enjoy reading both your sites - you always have the primary vote of winning candidate map, and he always has the margin of win map, so the two provide a good overview of both ways of looking at the election results. You both invariably have different items of information in there, too, which is also very handy and enlightening.

I'll take a look for your Senate maps from 2004 and have a crack at this election.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 26, 2012, 02:24:19 AM
2012 Alberta Senate Election

()

It's a pretty boring map, because it's multiple first past the post, etc. The interesting bits are the brown ridings in the North (Medicine Hat was won by the same candidate, at 14%).

The third Wildrose candidate doesn't appear to have won any ridings.

I have completed another table where I have totalled the vote received by the three PC candidates and the three Wildrose candidates (left independents separate, as I don't think there was a "ticket" for them). I'll work on a map of that tomorrow - it looks like PC and Wildrose won every riding. Surprises include Wildrose winning Calgary-Fort, Calgary-McCall, Fort Mac-Conklin and Lesser Slave Lake, while PC wins Highwood, Calgary-Fish Creek and Calgary-Shaw. All Liberal and NDP provincial seats went PC for the Senate.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 26, 2012, 02:43:05 AM
Can't edit my previous post from my phone browser. Obviously the final sentence should include the words "with the exception of Calgary-McCall" at the beginning.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 26, 2012, 09:55:10 AM
Strange map. I noticed the key is different from mine, as I used percentage of ballots while used percentage of votes.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on April 26, 2012, 02:24:21 PM
Alberta is more like Texas or Montana.

I've been told its more OK or UT than TX or MT, but to me it's more like Alabama or Georgia.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 26, 2012, 02:34:58 PM
To me (not that I know too much about the province), it seems like its US neighbours: Montana, the Dakotas, Idaho, etc...


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 26, 2012, 02:47:39 PM
Alberta is more like Texas or Montana.

I've been told its more OK or UT than TX or MT, but to me it's more like Alabama or Georgia.

Well, the border area is like Utah in the sense that there are a lot of Mormons there. But, I'm not sure why it would be like the US south at all. It's not poor, it doesn't have a huge number of African Americans, it has very different industries. They might both be conservative, but Alberta is far more libertarian than the south, which is more populist. I'd say parts of Ontario are more like the US south (SW Ontario, Central and Eastern Ontario maybe), but even that's a stretch.

There's also a few communities in Nova Scotia that have descendants of the underground railroad. I believe they still have a southern dialect.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: DL on April 26, 2012, 03:10:05 PM
It tells you something about Canada compared to the US that Alberta is by far the most rightwing province in Canada, and even in Alberta Danielle Smith of Wildrose stated that she favoured same sex marriage and abortion rights and still got crushed in the election because Albertans saw her as a rightwing crackpot.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 26, 2012, 03:16:28 PM
Texas seems like a fairly reasonable comparison, with Dallas taking the place of Calgary and Houston that of Edmonton.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: MaxQue on April 26, 2012, 03:33:12 PM
It tells you something about Canada compared to the US that Alberta is by far the most rightwing province in Canada, and even in Alberta Danielle Smith of Wildrose stated that she favoured same sex marriage and abortion rights and still got crushed in the election because Albertans saw her as a rightwing crackpot.

Well, those issues are federal ones.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 26, 2012, 03:48:38 PM
Texas seems like a fairly reasonable comparison, with Dallas taking the place of Calgary and Houston that of Edmonton.

Why because of the Houston Oilers are the Edmonton Oilers? Heh. Parts of Edmonton are more like Austin, really.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 26, 2012, 04:33:16 PM
Strange map. I noticed the key is different from mine, as I used percentage of ballots while used percentage of votes.

Indeed strange. I wasn't sure the best way to total votes because of it being multiple fptp. Any advice would be appreciated. I picked the scale after arranging a column of maximum vote percentages in ascending order but percentage of ballots might give a different scale.

My observations - I'm guessing the Germain was from St Paul or somewhere up that way. Evergreen won in E-Strathcona. Shaikh sounds like he might be of a non-white ethnicity, he may have links to (be from) the C-McCall or C-Greenway community. Bracko was the former Liberal MLA from St Albert.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on April 26, 2012, 05:56:34 PM
Quote
Well, the border area is like Utah in the sense that there are a lot of Mormons there. But, I'm not sure why it would be like the US south at all. It's not poor, it doesn't have a huge number of African Americans, it has very different industries. They might both be conservative, but Alberta is far more libertarian than the south, which is more populist. I'd say parts of Ontario are more like the US south (SW Ontario, Central and Eastern Ontario maybe), but even that's a stretch.

There's also a few communities in Nova Scotia that have descendants of the underground railroad. I believe they still have a southern dialect.


I can see, but you know the US South is BOTH Libertarian and Populist, and I don't see how Ontario is like the US South, I find it more like CA or NY.


Quote
Texas seems like a fairly reasonable comparison, with Dallas taking the place of Calgary and Houston that of Edmonton.


I see Houston more like Calgary because of the oil industries, but unlike Calgary; Houston is liberal inner-city proper with conservative suburbs. Calgary seems to be conservative all over no matter where.



Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: adma on April 26, 2012, 08:36:31 PM
I see Houston more like Calgary because of the oil industries, but unlike Calgary; Houston is liberal inner-city proper with conservative suburbs. Calgary seems to be conservative all over no matter where.

Then again, the whys and wherefores of US racial politics play a big part in that--and of course, provincially, the central two Calgary seats remain Liberal.

(And beyond that, we can also USify the election by viewing Redford as the incumbent Democratic governor and Smith as her Republican challenger.  Remember: by US standards, Canadian conservativism can be quite moderate or even "liberal"--certainly so in Redford's case)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: ottermax on April 26, 2012, 09:42:23 PM
If Alberta were actually part of the US, it would probably be a lean Democratic state... something like Colorado but with a more urban population. I doubt Edmonton and Calgary would be good areas for socially conservative Republicans. But then again it's hard to know what Alberta would be like as a US state because surely it would have a very different set of people.

If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on April 26, 2012, 09:49:24 PM
If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.

I may have to agree with you slightly there. I don't know why people compare Alberta to Texas anyway, other than oil and cattle they have NOTHING in common.


Quote
Then again, the whys and wherefores of US racial politics play a big part in that


Not entirely some of Houston's neighboorhoods that are mostly White like The Heights, Montrose, and Midtown vote Democratic.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: LastVoter on April 26, 2012, 11:15:55 PM
If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.

I may have to agree with you slightly there. I don't know why people compare Alberta to Texas anyway, other than oil and cattle they have NOTHING in common.


Quote
Then again, the whys and wherefores of US racial politics play a big part in that


Not entirely some of Houston's neighboorhoods that are mostly White like The Heights, Montrose, and Midtown vote Democratic.
I looked over Dave's map and there are maybe 10 precints which are majority white and democratic total in DFW, and maybe same in Houston. Austin is better in that regard obviously. Still need a few more years before the white city dwellers in Texas get accustomed to urban problems.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on April 27, 2012, 12:56:13 AM
If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.

I may have to agree with you slightly there. I don't know why people compare Alberta to Texas anyway, other than oil and cattle they have NOTHING in common.


Quote
Then again, the whys and wherefores of US racial politics play a big part in that


Not entirely some of Houston's neighboorhoods that are mostly White like The Heights, Montrose, and Midtown vote Democratic.
I looked over Dave's map and there are maybe 10 precints which are majority white and democratic total in DFW, and maybe same in Houston. Austin is better in that regard obviously. Still need a few more years before the white city dwellers in Texas get accustomed to urban problems.

What map of precincts? I'm new and need to know where.

As for the white city dwellers, they are already accustomed to urban problems, and for that they'll likely move out.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Smid on April 27, 2012, 02:16:53 AM
What map of precincts? I'm new and need to know where.

Scroll down a couple of boards, to "Political Geography and Demographics" within the "General Politics" cluster of boards. You are then looking for the DRA, which stands for Dave's Redistricting App (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97085.0) (I've included the link to the thread so you can find it).

Have fun!!! (I shouldn't have told you about this... we probably won't see you for the next three weeks... it's seriously addictive!!!).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: minionofmidas on April 28, 2012, 04:17:47 AM
Texas seems like a fairly reasonable comparison, with Dallas taking the place of Calgary and Houston that of Edmonton.

Why because of the Houston Oilers are the Edmonton Oilers? Heh. Parts of Edmonton are more like Austin, really.

And Calgary is an overgrown Lubbock. (And so are the suburban parts of Edmonton, of course.)

But yeah, Alberta is basically Montana with cities. Heh, maybe East Washington works best as a parallel.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: adma on April 28, 2012, 04:46:21 AM
Then again, I can also see Alberta as the kind of place which swung significantly ObamaBiden-ward in 2008, a la the Midwest/Mountain states (Utah not excluded).

As far as 2008 McCain-Palin swingers go...is there a Canadian equivalent at all?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 28, 2012, 05:09:59 PM
Then again, I can also see Alberta as the kind of place which swung significantly ObamaBiden-ward in 2008, a la the Midwest/Mountain states (Utah not excluded).

As far as 2008 McCain-Palin swingers go...is there a Canadian equivalent at all?

I actually think the state closest to Alberta in terms of political values is Colorado.  The Deep South and Texas as well as Utah are a lot more conservative.  Yes the Democrats do win in Colorado sometimes but the right is more right wing in the US and the left is less left wing.  The Democrats would be like the PCs in Alberta and the Republicans like the WRA.  Colorado is generally fairly libertarian although not to the extent of same Ayn Rand much like Alberta while not that socially conservative except for a few pockets like in Alberta.  Also you have a similiar rural vs. urban split and in terms of religion a somewhat similiar profile unlike the South was is largely Evangelical Protestant and Utah which is mormon.  Alberta actually has the second highest percentage of no religious preference in Canada after BC.  In general in both Canada and the US, the West is the least religious.  Someone who is libertarian generally doesn't like rules, so they would not support left wing parties that advocate a more interventionist government, but also be wary of the church too. 


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 28, 2012, 05:18:50 PM
Having family from Alberta, I can give a good take on what happened here.  I don't think the Wildrose lost for anyone reason, but rather a combination of being seen as too extreme, but also too inexperienced and not ready to form government.  Even some who are more philosophically aligned with the WRA voted PC since they felt they were not ready for government, but could easily switch in 2016 if they show they are ready.  Even with the PC win, Alberta is still a Conservative province, not just not an ultra-conservative one and never was to begin with.  They elected Lougheed over 30 years ago who was a Red Tory like Alison Redford.  Yes they went Reform Party in the 90s, but so did BC, so some of that was a protest vote as I doubt all of those who voted Reform would have voted for them had they actually had a chance at forming government and thus would have come under greater scrutiny.  Ralph Klein was more conservative, but no more so than Mike Harris who won Ontario during the same period.  In 1993, Canada was downgraded and faced a debt crisis almost as bad as Greece and Portugal thus many not normally on the right voted for parties who promised to radically slash government spending simply as a reaction to the debt issue.  Even the Liberals federally made spending cuts far greater than the Tories now are making and interestingly enough the UK government based much of their budget cuts on what Martin did as finance minister in the 90s. 

In terms of social conservatism, Alberta isn't now nor has been a socially conservative province.  Yes the rural South is, but the Fraser Valley in BC, rural Southern New Brunswick, and parts of Central and Eastern Ontario are too.  Albertans generally don't care if you are gay, what your religion is, or ethnicity.  They only care about who you are as a person.

In terms of libertarianism, I think Alberta is libertarian in terms of they support a hands off approach government and are wary of an activist government, but not the Ayn Rand pure libertarianism is most still support universal health care and a free education system from K-12.  I would argue they still want less government so Redford has to be careful to not go too left wing or she may face trouble in 2016, but not try to out right wing the WRA either.  Lets remember in May 2011, 67% of Albertans voted Conservative while on 34% voted WRA meaning many federal Conservatives did stick with the PCs and with the combined right vote of 78%, that means around 3/4 of PC voters are federal Conservatives while only 1/4 strategic Liberal or NDP voters as well as some Liberals were probably centrist to begin with and voted for Joe Clark and Peter Lougheed, but found people like Harper or Klein too conservative so went Liberal then but have since returned, thus not all strategic votes. 

Also outside Edmonton, most ridings in Calgary and rural Alberta were won by less than 10% meaning it would take that big a voter shift to flip the results upside down to 60+ WRA seats and fewer than 20 PC seats.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Vosem on April 28, 2012, 08:15:50 PM
If Alberta were actually part of the US, it would probably be a lean Democratic state... something like Colorado but with a more urban population. I doubt Edmonton and Calgary would be good areas for socially conservative Republicans. But then again it's hard to know what Alberta would be like as a US state because surely it would have a very different set of people.

If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.

I'm curious (this is obviously an unanswerable question, but I feel like posing it anyway)...considering the amount of influence a state of Alberta's size has on US politics, if Alberta joined the US, would the US tack left or would Alberta tack right?


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 28, 2012, 09:35:39 PM
If Alberta were actually part of the US, it would probably be a lean Democratic state... something like Colorado but with a more urban population. I doubt Edmonton and Calgary would be good areas for socially conservative Republicans. But then again it's hard to know what Alberta would be like as a US state because surely it would have a very different set of people.

If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.

I'm curious (this is obviously an unanswerable question, but I feel like posing it anyway)...considering the amount of influence a state of Alberta's size has on US politics, if Alberta joined the US, would the US tack left or would Alberta tack right?

Neither I would say.  It is probably the only province that would be a swing state whereas every province would be a solid blue state.  Besides Ontario and Quebec are the only two provinces large enough to have much impact anyways unless it was a close election.  Both would go solidly Democrat the only difference is Quebec would be like DC in terms of Democrat support while Ontario would be more like the Southern New England states (MA, RI and CT) and New York.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: ottermax on April 29, 2012, 01:12:29 AM
If Alberta were actually part of the US, it would probably be a lean Democratic state... something like Colorado but with a more urban population. I doubt Edmonton and Calgary would be good areas for socially conservative Republicans. But then again it's hard to know what Alberta would be like as a US state because surely it would have a very different set of people.

If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.

I'm curious (this is obviously an unanswerable question, but I feel like posing it anyway)...considering the amount of influence a state of Alberta's size has on US politics, if Alberta joined the US, would the US tack left or would Alberta tack right?

Yeah... Alberta has a population about the size of Connecticut, so the influence would be limited. Only if the entirety of Canada was added would the US shift, and most definitely to the Left.

With time, Alberta and Saskatchewan would probably be opportunities for Republicans, but I don't know if anywhere else would.

Canada is becoming more right-wing unfortunately (IMO), so perhaps one day it will be very similar to the US.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 30, 2012, 01:09:09 AM
Actually Ontario would be large enough to have an impact if a swing state as it is roughly the same size as Illinois, bigger than Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, while only smaller than California, Florida, New York, and Texas.  For example in 2000 and 2004, Bush likely wouldn't have won had Ontario been a state.  In the case of Alberta in 2000 it could have tipped things in favour of Al Gore if it went for him, but that election was a razor thin win so pretty much any state could have tipped the results in Gore's favour. 

As for Canada moving to the right, I would argue no more so than the US and Europe are.  Both of those areas are more conservative than they were 30 years ago.  I would argue there are two primary reasons for this.  The main one is you have an aging population and generally older people are more conservative than younger ones.

The other is shifting demographics in terms of area.  Generally the poorer areas which tend to lean more left are losing people while the more affluent regions which tend to lean more to the right are growing.  In the case of Canada, that would be Quebec and Atlantic Canada losing, while the West gaining, for the US, the rust belt states losing and sun belt states gaining, in Britain population loss in the Industrial North while gaining in the South of England and in the case of Germany, loss in East Germany and the Northern areas while growing in Southern Germany. 

Even shift in city population is having an impact too.  Here in Toronto, the downtown which has always been more left leaning isn't really growing while the 905 suburbs which are more conservative is where all the growth is.  Off course the hard right areas in both countries are losing people in many cases as rural areas are generally declining in population.  I believe in 2004, Bush won 97 of the 100 fastest growing counties, whereas here in Canada, the fastest growing areas are either Conservative or at least competitive for them (905 suburbs, Central Ontario, Calgary, Edmonton, bedroom communities surrounding Calgary and Edmonton, Okanagan Valley, Fraser Valley, Surrey, Richmond, North Nanaimo-Comox area).  By contrast the areas with almost no growth or losing population are generally not conservative friendly areas (Rural Newfoundland, Cape Breton Island, Acadian Coast of New Brunswick, Northern Quebec, Northern Ontario, the Territories).


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Nichlemn on April 30, 2012, 01:37:21 AM
Actually Ontario would be large enough to have an impact if a swing state as it is roughly the same size as Illinois, bigger than Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, while only smaller than California, Florida, New York, and Texas.  For example in 2000 and 2004, Bush likely wouldn't have won had Ontario been a state.  In the case of Alberta in 2000 it could have tipped things in favour of Al Gore if it went for him, but that election was a razor thin win so pretty much any state could have tipped the results in Gore's favour. 

As for Canada moving to the right, I would argue no more so than the US and Europe are.  Both of those areas are more conservative than they were 30 years ago.  I would argue there are two primary reasons for this.  The main one is you have an aging population and generally older people are more conservative than younger ones.

The other is shifting demographics in terms of area.  Generally the poorer areas which tend to lean more left are losing people while the more affluent regions which tend to lean more to the right are growing.  In the case of Canada, that would be Quebec and Atlantic Canada losing, while the West gaining, for the US, the rust belt states losing and sun belt states gaining, in Britain population loss in the Industrial North while gaining in the South of England and in the case of Germany, loss in East Germany and the Northern areas while growing in Southern Germany. 

Even shift in city population is having an impact too.  Here in Toronto, the downtown which has always been more left leaning isn't really growing while the 905 suburbs which are more conservative is where all the growth is.  Off course the hard right areas in both countries are losing people in many cases as rural areas are generally declining in population.  I believe in 2004, Bush won 97 of the 100 fastest growing counties, whereas here in Canada, the fastest growing areas are either Conservative or at least competitive for them (905 suburbs, Central Ontario, Calgary, Edmonton, bedroom communities surrounding Calgary and Edmonton, Okanagan Valley, Fraser Valley, Surrey, Richmond, North Nanaimo-Comox area).  By contrast the areas with almost no growth or losing population are generally not conservative friendly areas (Rural Newfoundland, Cape Breton Island, Acadian Coast of New Brunswick, Northern Quebec, Northern Ontario, the Territories).

What if Canada was part of the United States? (http://mypolitikal.com/2011/03/30/part-1-what-if-canada-was-part-of-the-united-states/)

Kerry wins if Canada is a whole is a state, but just barely. Ontario alone wouldn't do it, since Bush had a 35 EV margin over Kerry and Ontario would only have about 20EVs.


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: adma on April 30, 2012, 07:04:49 AM
On paper, the "changing demographics favouring the right wing" argument makes sense.  But if we go according to US parameters, a lot of that fast-growth-burbia may be too cosmopolitan for present-day Republicans.  (And remember, too, that there's a common countervailing demographic factor: as the right-friendly outer 'burbs boom, the aging inner burbs swing away from the right.  Notwithstanding Harper's 905/416 inroads, Ford Nation, etc.)


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 30, 2012, 04:08:20 PM
On paper, the "changing demographics favouring the right wing" argument makes sense.  But if we go according to US parameters, a lot of that fast-growth-burbia may be too cosmopolitan for present-day Republicans.  (And remember, too, that there's a common countervailing demographic factor: as the right-friendly outer 'burbs boom, the aging inner burbs swing away from the right.  Notwithstanding Harper's 905/416 inroads, Ford Nation, etc.)

I was more referring to moving to the centre-right.  Certainly those areas not hard right.  Here in Canada the 905 belt doesn't blindly go Tory, in fact provincially it went Liberal and it took a few elections before Harper won it, otherwise it is centre-right as opposed to the more left leaning Downtown, but certainly not hard right.  The same could be said about the Alberta election as Calgary which is fast growing is definitely a right leaning city, but the WRA was a little too far right for them much like the tea party and religious right are for some US city suburbs. 


Title: Re: Alberta 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 30, 2012, 06:57:20 PM
My analysis: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-provincial-election.html