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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 08, 2012, 01:48:23 pm



Title: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 08, 2012, 01:48:23 pm
Time for a new thread methinks.

Calendar

May 6th Schleswig-Holstein

Yeah, that's it. So far. We might get new elections on the Saar. We might get a new President. We'll have to wait and see.

We'll also have a mayoral election on the 11th and 25th of march here in Frankfurt, and I intend to report on that.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on January 08, 2012, 01:52:52 pm
We only have the Innsbruck town council elections in April and the Burgenland town council elections in October ... :(

Unless there are snap federal elections called for this year, which is unlikely.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 08, 2012, 02:37:34 pm
10 candidates have filed - deadline was on the fifth. We won't be told whether they all got their paperwork right etc til the 12th.

But here they are


(http://schroeter.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/rhein_boris4855741.jpg)

Boris Rhein. CDU. Spoiled little brat whose father was an SPD politico who defected to the CDU towards the very end of his 20 year political career. Was an MdL 1999 to 2006, a Dezernent 2006 to 2009 and is now Hesse's home minister. Just turned 40, and seems to have lost some weight of recent.

(http://www.op-online.de/bilder/2011/12/16/1533411/43790957-peter-feldmann.9.jpg)

Peter Feldmann. SPD. Attention whore and longtime city councillor. Jewish, as I learned a couple of days ago. Frankfurt has had Jewish politicians postwar, of course (Heiner Halberstadt, Ignatz Bubis and Michel Friedman come to mind), but I can't think of any postwar Jewish mayor of any major city in Germany. So that's a little curio. This is a down-in-the-dumps party that looked hard for a candidate who wasn't Michael Paris, but hilariously he might actually win this.

(http://www.op-online.de/bilder/2011/11/12/1486300/627754945-775cafb7-68bc-4b7b-a1e0-b217ffe1e99a.9.jpg)

Rosemarie Heilig. Greens. Another party that was looking hard for a candidate after Manuela Rottmann turned it down. They govern this city along with the CDU, and they know Rhein is not remotely palatable to their voters (or to many within the decision-making circles, either.) Besides, given how the party polled recently and that Frankfurt is a stronghold, and that not running someone against Petra Roth in 2007 already looked bad... they had to find someone. Rosi Heilig looks good on paper with some administrative (that Feldmann is utterly lacking) as well as council experience. The problem is that no one knows her, and the few who do do so as Rosi Oswald. That's the name she sat on the council under. After her probably inevitable defeat she'll still fall upward - her election as Dezernentin that was already decided before Roth resigned will go ahead as planned.



Janine Wissler. Left. MdL. Younger than me, and rode the mid-2000s student protests wave into the Landtag. A trot.

Herbert Förster. Pirate. One of their two city councillors. Runs a tea shop. No, not a "tea shop" ie British middle class cafe. A shop that sells teas.

Ursula Fechter. FAG (that's FlughafenAusbauGegner). The new runway is built now, and everyone who pooh-poohed the talk about additional noise has been rather convincingly shut up by the airport itself. Meanwhile, the courts have issued an injunction until their final decision some time later in the spring that bans all night-time flights (this had originally been part of the package deal to get the thing built, but got watered down in later negotiations between the airport and its owner the state of Hesse.) So the issue is back on the agenda, and pretty huge.



Non-shows. The FDP is wisely not running a candidate. The FW had a candidate - not their public face Wolfgang Hübner, whyever, but some unknown called Reinhard Kölsch. Who beat another unknown who had Hübner's support at the selection meeting. And then had to withdraw due to "unforeseeable, major family and health issues" (sounded like his wife was diagnosed with cancer or something seriously ugly like that.) Now they're without a candidate either, and have decided not to endorse anybody for round one, reserving the right to do so for a runoff.
Also, no nazi candidate, which surprised me.



Oliver Maria Schmitt Titanic co-owner and formerly editor in chief. "Honorary chairman" of the PARTEI. Which is now running him on the following platform:

1. Frankfurt 21. Move the financial district underground for a free view of the main station.

2. Dissolve the posh ghettos. Distribute the population of the Lerchesberg and the Holzhausenviertel onto the tower blocks.

3. Careful reconstruction of the Technisches Rathaus (this ugly concrete 60s thing over the ruins of the oldest part of Frankfurt has just been torn down, lol. And now they'll do some pastiche pseudo-reconstruction of oldness.) Demolition of Saint Nicholas church (opposite the Römer) to make room for much needed parking space in the old town.

4. Put a minus sign in front of the Euro monument (http://de.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Datei:European_central_bank_euro_frankfurt_germany.jpg&filetimestamp=20101019214816).

5. Dissolution of Eintracht Frankfurt due to lack of perspective, immediate promotion of the FSV to the Bundesliga.

6. Renaming of four roads in very different parts of the city, apparently chosen at random, to Robert-Gernhardt-Straße. I'm not sure if that's a tribute to Gernhardt (a cofounder of Titanic), or a mockery of the many official tributes to the New Frankfurt School at the moment...

7. Tax on patio heaters (this was a recent rent-a-quote demand from a supposedly serious politicians) and on bringing SUVs into the city

8. No wall between Frankfurt and Offenbach (yes, that's the official plank. No, nobody wants to build a wall.) Instead Offenbach should just be annexed.

9. Smaller and cuter animals for the zoo

10 The airport to be relocated into the Taunus.



This is where it gets seriously obscure. Independent candidates Harald Frenzel (who?), Carlo Maria Schulte and Jean-Jules Tatchouop - frequent off-the-wall candidates both. I like Tatchouop. He's a nice bloke up close, though obviously mad as a hatter. DRC native.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ObserverIE on January 08, 2012, 04:33:38 pm
Non-shows. The FDP is wisely not running a candidate.

...



Oliver Maria Schmitt Titanic co-owner and formerly editor in chief.

Surely the co-owner of something called Titanic would have been a natural candidate for Fast Drei Zwei Prozent to endorse?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: republicanism on January 09, 2012, 01:04:42 am
May 6th Schleswig-Holstein

Since it is my home state I will try to find some time to give all those who are interested some background information and, if possible, party-intern rumours and gossip in the weeks before the election.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 09, 2012, 06:28:29 am
Non-shows. The FDP is wisely not running a candidate.

...



Oliver Maria Schmitt Titanic co-owner and formerly editor in chief.

Surely the co-owner of something called Titanic would have been a natural candidate for Fast Drei Zwei Prozent to endorse?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titanic_%28magazine%29 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titanic_%28magazine%29)

And then there's...
Quote
In order to achieve its majority, the PARTEI is willing to form a coalition with any other party – bar the FDP, 'After all, we're no joke party.'


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 13, 2012, 09:08:53 am
All ten candidates have done their paperwork right, all those that needed signatures (and that includes Fechter - the only remaining FAG councillor has joined the FDP's council party {wtf? (http://umamibuecher.wordpress.com/2011/06/27/die-aufforderung-ist-fur-mich-unerheblich/)} and left the FAG, so she's a candidate not nominated by a party represented in the city council) had enough valid signatures from registered voters - 186. The unrepresented candidates had their ballot order drawn by lot, the others are by last council election. The official ballot is

1 Boris Rhein
2 Rosemarie Heilig
3 Peter Feldmann
4 Janine Wißler (apparently, this is the official spelling of her surname, though she prefers to use Wissler)
5 Herbert Förster
6 Carl-Maria Schulte
7 Ursula Fechter
8 Harald Frenzel
9 Jean-Jules Tatchouop (who is of course from Cameroun, not the DRC. My apologies!)
10 Oliver Schmitt

Frenzel is a retired former Frankfurt firefighter who now resides in Fränkisch-Crumbach in the Odenwald. He also contested mayoral elections there a couple of years ago, receiving 1.4% of the vote. I have no idea about any political stances of his, but he submitted exactly 186 signatures, 5 minutes before the 6pm deadline of a week ago, and had the good fortune that every one of them was valid. :D


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 14, 2012, 06:50:55 am
FR has some sort of poll. By Omniquest, and done American style, without excluding undecideds. Also didn't poll the minor candidates.

Rhein 32.1
Feldmann 19.4
Heilig 12.4
Förster 4.3
Wißler 2.8
other / NOTA 8.7 (apparently. Deduced from the other figures adding to 91.3)
undecided 20.3


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on January 14, 2012, 07:20:29 am
Basic stuff on the Schleswig-Holstein election:

The state is governed by Peter Harry Carstensen, first in a CDU/SPD coalition (2005-2009), then in a CDU/FDP coalition (since 2009).

Carstensen is not running for another term. His designated successor Christian von Boetticher dopped out last year after having admitted a sexual relationship with a 16-year-old girl. Boetticher'successor Jost de Jager was fairly unknown, having been the state's economics minister since only 2009.

The popular mayor of the state capital of Kiel, Torsten Albig, managed to defeat SPD state chairman Ralf Stegner in a primary-like contest in early 2011.

The last poll for the state election came out on November 18 last year (Forsa):
CDU 33%
SPD 32%
Greens 17%
Pirates 6%
SSW 3%
FDP 3%
Left 3%

As representative of the Danish minority, the SSW is exempted from the 5% threshold to win seats.

All bets are on a SPD/Green coalition under Albig, obviously.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 14, 2012, 07:25:09 am
What's the fix for the election law? Is the CDU playing utterly disgusting holding games with the Constitution like its federal counterpart?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: republicanism on January 19, 2012, 12:56:06 pm

From what I know we will have fresh elections in Saarland, and not a grand coalition. If my sources are right: Thank God!


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on January 19, 2012, 01:02:38 pm

From what I know we will have fresh elections in Saarland, and not a grand coalition. If my sources are right: Thank God!

So they're not quite as dumb as I thought.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 20, 2012, 05:03:32 am
'twas on the radio, so, yeah. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on January 20, 2012, 08:11:52 am
A few new polls:

Hessen

33% CDU
31% SPD
21% Greens
  4% Left
  4% Pirates
  3% FDP
  4% Others

Strong 52-33 majority for SPD-Greens. 60-36 majority for Left-wingish parties.

Hamburg

51% SPD
20% CDU
14% Greens
  5% Pirates
  4% Left
  3% FDP
  3% Others

Absolute 51-39 majority for SPD. 74-23 majority for Left-wingish parties.

NRW

33% SPD
31% CDU
17% Greens
  8% Pirates
  5% Left
  3% FDP
  3% Others

50-44 majority for SPD-Greens. 63-34 majority for Left-wingish parties.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on January 21, 2012, 02:39:41 am
New Schleswig-Holstein poll, which will hold state elections this year:

34% CDU
32% SPD
15% Greens
  7% Pirates
  4% FDP
  3% SSW
  3% Left
  2% Others

47-41 majority for SPD-Greens.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on January 21, 2012, 06:23:56 am
Doesn't the SSW always get a couple is seats in Schleswig-Holstein under a special law and they almost always ally themselves with the SPD against the CDU?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 21, 2012, 06:32:07 am
Yessir, so it's 47-44 actually.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on January 21, 2012, 08:34:20 am
Doesn't the SSW always get a couple is seats in Schleswig-Holstein under a special law and they almost always ally themselves with the SPD against the CDU?

Define "almost always".

They tried it back in 2005 (SPD/Green minority government backed by the SSW) and I have no idea whether they'll be willing to give it another try after having experienced that debacle.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on January 23, 2012, 08:04:08 am
Yessir, so it's 47-44 actually.

No it makes it 50-41 for SPD-Green-SSW


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 23, 2012, 11:41:38 am
No. Reality doesn't work that way.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on January 26, 2012, 11:57:14 am
2 interesting new polls out today:

Niedersachsen

36%  [-6.5] CDU
32% [+1.7] SPD
17% [+9.0] Greens
  5%  [-2.1] Left
  4% [+4.0] Pirates
  3%  [-5.2] FDP
  3%  [-0.9] Others

49-41 majority for SPD-Greens.

Saarland (votes at the end of March)

38% [+13.5] SPD
34%    [-0.5] CDU
13%    [-8.3] Left
  6%   [+0.1] Greens
  5%   [+5.0] Pirates
  2%    [-7.2] FDP
  2%    [-2.6] Others

51-45 majority for SPD-Left, or 49-47 majority for SPD-Greens-Pirates or a Grand Coalition.

What is a likely coalition in yourr opinion ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: JonBidinger on January 26, 2012, 02:28:19 pm
Personally, I don't see the Pirate Party entering into a coalition government in Saarland, whether it is them not risking their protest party status or the SPD not wanting the "untested crazies" in government. A red-red coalition could be possible if they have gotten over their previous baggage, but I wouldnt count on it. I could see some floating the idea of a red-red-green coalition to marginalize Die Linke within the coalition but that would probably be a mess to form. While a grand coalition failed before the elections were called, and that could cast doubt on a grand coalition after the elections, it would be more likely to form on the SPD's terms.

Just my speculation, I don't have any specific on the ground information.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on January 26, 2012, 02:51:38 pm
Remarkable in all these surveys how the FDP is just getting demolished and falling into low single digits in state after state after state...can they even survive as a party or could they just end up folding - esp. if they end up with almost no elected officials and no party funding?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: jeron on January 27, 2012, 10:58:36 am
Remarkable in all these surveys how the FDP is just getting demolished and falling into low single digits in state after state after state...can they even survive as a party or could they just end up folding - esp. if they end up with almost no elected officials and no party funding?

I suppose this was about to expected in Saarland.
I think they will survive, btw. It's not the first time their results are bad. From 1996 to 2000 they were only represented in four regional parliaments. (Results 1997-1999: Bayern 1,7%, Berlin 2.2%, Brandenburg 1.9%, Bremen 2.5%, Hamburg 3.5%, Hessen 5.1%, Mecklenburg-V. 1.6%, Niedersachsen 4.9%, Saarland 2.6%, Sachsen 1.1%, Sachsen-A. 4.2%, Thüringen 1.1%). As you see these results were awful. They also had a hard time in the mid-1980s. It's not easy to start from scratch, but they will come back.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 27, 2012, 12:08:51 pm
Saarland (votes at the end of March)

38% [+13.5] SPD
34%    [-0.5] CDU
13%    [-8.3] Left
  6%   [+0.1] Greens
  5%   [+5.0] Pirates
  2%    [-7.2] FDP
  2%    [-2.6] Others

51-45 majority for SPD-Left, or 49-47 majority for SPD-Greens-Pirates or a Grand Coalition.

What is a likely coalition in yourr opinion ?
SPD-CDU. Followed by CDU-SPD as the second most likely option.

Not that many of the others can be ruled out, mind.



Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: jeron on January 29, 2012, 09:00:04 am
There is also a new poll for Saarland by Emnid:

SPD 36%
CDU 36%
Greens 5%
FDP 2%
Linke 15%
Pirates 4%

So, either a Red-Red coalition or a Grand coalition.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on January 29, 2012, 10:22:27 am
Remarkable in all these surveys how the FDP is just getting demolished and falling into low single digits in state after state after state...can they even survive as a party or could they just end up folding - esp. if they end up with almost no elected officials and no party funding?

I suppose this was about to expected in Saarland.
I think they will survive, btw. It's not the first time their results are bad. From 1996 to 2000 they were only represented in four regional parliaments. (Results 1997-1999: Bayern 1,7%, Berlin 2.2%, Brandenburg 1.9%, Bremen 2.5%, Hamburg 3.5%, Hessen 5.1%, Mecklenburg-V. 1.6%, Niedersachsen 4.9%, Saarland 2.6%, Sachsen 1.1%, Sachsen-A. 4.2%, Thüringen 1.1%). As you see these results were awful. They also had a hard time in the mid-1980s. It's not easy to start from scratch, but they will come back.

It's never been clear to me what the FDP's raisin d'être is. How different are they from several factions within the CDU? It's true that they might have survived bad state election results in the past but they have never been bounced out of the Bundestag at the national level. If that happened it might be game over for them.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RodPresident on January 29, 2012, 05:50:10 pm
I think that one of dumbest thing FDP ever made was choosing to boycott alliances with SPD. Greens has a appeal to be different of SPD, while FDP has not. I think that a trafic-light coalition in 2005 could be bad for FDP in short-run, but not in the long-run, as they could be able to attract no-enviromentalist moderate left voters that are going now to the Pirates.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: jeron on January 31, 2012, 03:43:21 pm
Remarkable in all these surveys how the FDP is just getting demolished and falling into low single digits in state after state after state...can they even survive as a party or could they just end up folding - esp. if they end up with almost no elected officials and no party funding?

I suppose this was about to expected in Saarland.
I think they will survive, btw. It's not the first time their results are bad. From 1996 to 2000 they were only represented in four regional parliaments. (Results 1997-1999: Bayern 1,7%, Berlin 2.2%, Brandenburg 1.9%, Bremen 2.5%, Hamburg 3.5%, Hessen 5.1%, Mecklenburg-V. 1.6%, Niedersachsen 4.9%, Saarland 2.6%, Sachsen 1.1%, Sachsen-A. 4.2%, Thüringen 1.1%). As you see these results were awful. They also had a hard time in the mid-1980s. It's not easy to start from scratch, but they will come back.

It's never been clear to me what the FDP's raisin d'être is. How different are they from several factions within the CDU? It's true that they might have survived bad state election results in the past but they have never been bounced out of the Bundestag at the national level. If that happened it might be game over for them.

I don't that think that there are real liberals within the CDU. There are CDU members that are politically close to the more conservative FDP members. However, as a liberal party FDP focuses more on the individual, while CDU emphasises family values and society as a whole.



Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on February 03, 2012, 06:31:21 am
Remarkable in all these surveys how the FDP is just getting demolished and falling into low single digits in state after state after state...can they even survive as a party or could they just end up folding - esp. if they end up with almost no elected officials and no party funding?

I suppose this was about to expected in Saarland.
I think they will survive, btw. It's not the first time their results are bad. From 1996 to 2000 they were only represented in four regional parliaments. (Results 1997-1999: Bayern 1,7%, Berlin 2.2%, Brandenburg 1.9%, Bremen 2.5%, Hamburg 3.5%, Hessen 5.1%, Mecklenburg-V. 1.6%, Niedersachsen 4.9%, Saarland 2.6%, Sachsen 1.1%, Sachsen-A. 4.2%, Thüringen 1.1%). As you see these results were awful. They also had a hard time in the mid-1980s. It's not easy to start from scratch, but they will come back.

It's never been clear to me what the FDP's raisin d'être is. How different are they from several factions within the CDU? It's true that they might have survived bad state election results in the past but they have never been bounced out of the Bundestag at the national level. If that happened it might be game over for them.

I don't that think that there are real liberals within the CDU. There are CDU members that are politically close to the more conservative FDP members. However, as a liberal party FDP focuses more on the individual, while CDU emphasises family values and society as a whole.



Historically the CDU and especially the CSU were christian Parties. Adenauer intended the CDU to bring together Lutherans and Catholics into one party and win political majorities with this.

I don't believe that today this christian heritage is very much evident in day-to-day politics, but I'm always surprised how Christian and conservative members of the CDU's youth wing are.

The FDP was founded as a successor  of the liberal parties from the Weimar Republic and thus didn't have this Christian connection.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hash on February 03, 2012, 09:00:06 am
Well, in terms of voting patterns, the early FDP had a clear Protestant connection... like Weimar's liberals.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on February 11, 2012, 12:56:37 pm
Forsa poll for Berlin:

29% SPD
22% CDU
16% Greens
14% Pirates
10% Left
  0% FDP (lol)
  9% Others

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/berlin.htm

Looks like the FDP has ceased to exist in Berlin ... :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ObserverIE on February 11, 2012, 01:16:07 pm
Forsa poll for Berlin:

29% SPD
22% CDU
16% Greens
14% Pirates
10% Left
  0% FDP (lol)
  9% Others

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/berlin.htm

Looks like the FDP has ceased to exist in Berlin ... :P

Fast Drei Zwei Einem Prozent?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 17, 2012, 05:07:45 am
So, another presidential election within the next 30 days.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 17, 2012, 06:10:53 am
Hilarious, innit. Slow attrition, you begin to think he won't have to go (though I was certain, as of a couple of days ago, that he would not run for reelection, no matter what), there's more, and one day he's just gone. Just like with Guttenberg.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 17, 2012, 06:12:59 am
Merkel's said she wants a compromise candidate now. We'll see if anything comes off that. Wouldn't be surprised if that's just lipservice to what she thinks the people want.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on February 17, 2012, 09:27:12 am
New poll from Schleswig-Holstein:

CDU: 33% (+1,5%)
SPD: 33% (+7,6)
FDP: 3% (-11,9%)
Greens: 16% (+3,6%)
Left: 3% (-3%)
SSW: 3% (-1,3%)
Pirates: 5% (+3,2%)

The numbers are compared with the last election results. So both a CDU-Green-coalition and a SPD-Green-coalition and of course a CDU-SPD-coalition are possible.

Direcht election of the Ministerpresident:

de Jager (CDU): 29 %
Albig (SPD): 45%
None of the above: 15%

ndr.de/regional/schleswig-holstein/wahlumfrage137.html


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 17, 2012, 02:06:23 pm
(http://www.fr-online.de/image/view/2012/1/17/11656180,9488940,dmData,h,300,maxh,300,maxw,808,w,808,71-31199232.JPG.jpg)

Candidates being vetted...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 17, 2012, 03:59:11 pm
CDU/CSU/FDP emergency meeting on presidential succession today.

Coalition+SPD/Green meeting tomorrow. The Left isn't invited. Let's see what the government has to offer the opposition. They're probably drafting the shortlist right now. :P

SPD and Greens have preemptively ruled out any member of the current Merkel cabinet. (Incumbent defence minister Thomas de Maiziere in particular has been considered a likely candidate... he's boring, but respected.)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 17, 2012, 04:17:04 pm
Broadly speaking, they are looking for a joachim gauck who is not called Joachim Gauck.

Though they might end up going with Gauck.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 17, 2012, 04:45:59 pm
Broadly speaking, they are looking for a joachim gauck who is not called Joachim Gauck.

So, Marianne Birthler then. ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 18, 2012, 09:06:25 am
Rumor has it that the Government settled on Andreas Voßkuhle (President of the Constitutional Court, originally nominated to the Court by the SPD but never a member) and he turned them down.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 18, 2012, 11:41:31 am
I've just read on tagesschau.de that Andreas Voßkuhle, Thomas de Maiziere, Klaus Töpfer, and Norbert Lammert all turned them down.

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/wulffruecktrittreax106.html

Suppose we have to leave the office vacant then, huh? Or maybe the four aforementioned people just want to force the elevation of Gauck to the presidency. :P

Meanwhile, the expected Coalition+SPD/Green meeting has been pushed back again. First it was supposed to be postponed till sunday, now it's not even sure it will be held then. Instead, a third round of CDU/CSU/FDP talks are expected for tomorrow.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 18, 2012, 02:15:11 pm
I thought the FDP is vetoing Töpfer? de Maizière just knows what's good for him, of course. Lammert would have been a good choice.

I want Heiner Geißler now. ;D


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 18, 2012, 02:40:39 pm
At some point the office of President has to become more trouble than it's worth.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 18, 2012, 02:54:12 pm
Lol, the Spiegel mentions our departing mayor Petra Roth as a potential contender. I could actually imagine that - purely representative duties is something she's very good at.

Time to look at the mayoral election campaign here then... eh. There is no campaign. Everybody is against airport noise and tries to avoid any other political statement whatsoever.
The Pirate poster campaign is like a parody of the other parties', climaxing in this beauty:

(http://www.fr-online.de/image/view/2012/0/31/11549232,9302256,highRes,maxh,480,maxw,480,71-30309517.JPG.jpg)

http://peteramende.de/grafik/piratenpartei-frankfurt-wahlkampf-plakate-2012/


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Make Politics Boring Again on February 18, 2012, 07:49:58 pm
What in particular has caused the FDP to crash so disastrously and for the Pirates to take their spot? Did the FDP get involved in baby-killing scandals or something?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 18, 2012, 08:27:28 pm
Did the FDP get involved in baby-killing scandals or something?

Nothing that showed ever so much integrity as that.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 19, 2012, 07:14:15 am
Frankfurt mayor Petra Roth vetoed by the FDP, just like Klaus Töpfer was. Apparently, the FDP is against any CDU politician who has a half-way positive opinion of the Greens (like Roth/Töpfer), because they're in fear of getting ditched as coalition partner by the CDU.

Former bishop Wolfgang Huber was considered something of a front-runner yesterday, but his chances are already dwindling again apparently.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on February 19, 2012, 07:34:14 am
I'm for Gauck.

I understand Merkel's political reasons for not wanting him - but most voters wanted him then, and still want him now. I don't think it'd be all that harmful for her really to come out and more or less admit that she made a mistake last time.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 19, 2012, 10:02:10 am
Frankfurt mayor Petra Roth vetoed by the FDP, just like Klaus Töpfer was. Apparently, the FDP is against any CDU politician who has a half-way positive opinion of the Greens (like Roth/Töpfer), because they're in fear of getting ditched as coalition partner by the CDU.

It's more the fear that journalists would view/spin such a choice as a signal in a Black-Green direction. It's fairly meta.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 19, 2012, 10:51:50 am
FDP is supporting Gauck now, as do SPD and Greens.

CDU is still against it although they really don't have an argument why (except that he was nominated by the SPD in 2010 but they can't say that aloud).

Come on Merkel, please f**k it up again. Somehow you'll always find some third-rate guy instead of Gauck. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 19, 2012, 11:12:56 am
Klaus Töpfer was now declared second preference by the SPD.

CDU: against Gauck, for Töpfer
FDP: for Gauck, against Töpfer
SPD: for Gauck, or maybe Töfper

Hilarious. Looks like a Mexican standoff to me. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 19, 2012, 11:29:33 am
Greens: Okay with both.

If they'd let the Left decide (which they won't)... who'd they go with?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 19, 2012, 11:32:19 am
I just abused google to see if I could find a German called "Klaus-Joachim Göpfer" or "Klaus-Joachim Gaupfer" who might be willing to step in... but the closest google got me was Frankfurter Rundschau local reporter Claus-Jürgen Göpfert. :D


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 19, 2012, 11:33:20 am
Greens: Okay with both.

If they'd let the Left decide (which they won't)... who'd they go with?

Töpfer as the lesser evil obviously (from their point of view anyway). ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 19, 2012, 11:54:26 am
Pity that the scheduled CDU-FDP-SPD-Green talks will happen behind closed doors this evening.


Rösler (FDP): We want Gauck!

Merkel (CDU): We want Töpfer!

Rösler (FDP): No way!

Merkel (CDU): You're free to leave my government if you don’t like it.

Brüderle (FDP): *mumbles* Go f**k yourself.

Steinmeier (SPD): Guys, it's not a contest.

Özdemir (Greens): Yeah, we need to be a bit more constructive here.

Trittin (Greens): Well, If you ask me I find it highly entertaining.

Pofalla (CDU): Shut the f**k up, Trittin!


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 19, 2012, 02:12:09 pm
As of this evening, a breakup of the coalition and early Bundestag elections is at least an option which is on the table. In any case, Merkel will probably use it as a threat to discipline the FDP.

If they don't back down, it's what could happen. Naturally, SPD and Greens will do everything in their power that the FDP doesn't back down. What could save the coalition is the fact that FDP chairman Philipp Rösler is a coward who won't have the balls to go through with it... maybe.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on February 19, 2012, 02:16:08 pm
The coalition isn't breaking up. As you say - the FDP is scared to death of that option, with good reason.

Merkel certainly has nothing to fear. I think she'd rather lead a new grand coalition anyway.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on February 19, 2012, 02:21:07 pm
Early elections wouldn't even be too bad for the CDU at the moment.

Their share would even increase from 33% to about 38% ...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on February 19, 2012, 02:23:06 pm
Early elections wouldn't even be too bad for the CDU at the moment.

Their share would even increase from 33% to about 38% ...

Precisely - no matter what happens, Merkel is very likely to remain chancellor. And considering she probably likes the SPD better than the FDP anyway, what does she have to lose?

For the FDP, however, ending this government means losing all representation in parliament.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on February 19, 2012, 02:23:43 pm
Early elections wouldn't even be too bad for the CDU at the moment.

Their share would even increase from 33% to about 38% ...

PLEASE MERKEL !!!! PLEASE GO ON !!! :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on February 19, 2012, 02:24:40 pm
Early elections wouldn't even be too bad for the CDU at the moment.

Their share would even increase from 33% to about 38% ...

PLEASE MERKEL !!!! PLEASE GO ON !!! :P

You're hoping for early elections because you're accepting a possible grand coalition as the lesser evil or because you still hope there might be a red-green government? :)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 19, 2012, 02:26:49 pm
The coalition isn't breaking up. As you say - the FDP is scared to death of that option, with good reason.

Merkel certainly has nothing to fear. I think she'd rather lead a new grand coalition anyway.

Yeah, in that case it will be quite a humiliation for the FDP because it means that they have to repeal their own presidium's unanimous vote in favour of Gauck from earlier today. Which also means Merkel could simply ignore the FDP and do anything she wants in future intra-coalition conflicts.

If the FDP doesn't back down it could be over for the party... that is as a party which is represented in the Bundestag.

In any case, the FDP will lose big today. The question is what Rösler considers the lesser evil.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on February 19, 2012, 02:28:55 pm
Early elections wouldn't even be too bad for the CDU at the moment.

Their share would even increase from 33% to about 38% ...

PLEASE MERKEL !!!! PLEASE GO ON !!! :P

You're hoping for early elections because you're accepting a possible grand coalition as the lesser evil or because you still hope there might be a red-green government? :)

Red-Green is very, very unlikely today.

CDU/Left/Pirates have close to 50% (36+7+7), while SPD/Greens have only about 40-45%.

If there are new elections, there would be almost for sure a GROKO.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on February 19, 2012, 02:30:48 pm
It would be a blessing for this country to have the grand coalition back. May the FDP rot in hell and may Merkel restore competent government with a non-joke partner.

(There. I said it.)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 19, 2012, 02:32:32 pm
focus.de now reports that Joachim Gauck is going to become president. No other site seems to report it yet.

Surprising... if true it means that Philipp Rösler has finally become a man today. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 19, 2012, 02:34:22 pm
ZDF reports it now too.

Merkel surrenders? WTF? ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on February 19, 2012, 02:35:12 pm
Here is the estimated party strength of the next Bundesversammlung, which will elect the next President:

(http://www.wahlrecht.de/lexikon/bundesversammlung.png)

There are a total of 1240 electoral voters.

Majority is 621.

CDU/CSU/FDP = 623-626
SPD/Greens/Left/Others = 614-617

The final number for each party is not yet clear, because they have to draw some lots.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on February 19, 2012, 02:36:14 pm
As said previously. Gauck is certainly the most suitable president.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on February 19, 2012, 02:40:08 pm
Early elections wouldn't even be too bad for the CDU at the moment.

Their share would even increase from 33% to about 38% ...

PLEASE MERKEL !!!! PLEASE GO ON !!! :P

You're hoping for early elections because you're accepting a possible grand coalition as the lesser evil or because you still hope there might be a red-green government? :)

Anything will be better than the current black-yellow government. And the perspective to get rid of the FDP definitively is pretty appealing.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 19, 2012, 03:14:05 pm
You can stop arguing, there's white smoke over the palace.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 20, 2012, 08:45:21 am
Well, that was a close one. Apparently, some in the CDU are pretty pissed at the FDP now. There's some talk of "getting back at them" at the earliest opportunity. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Claude Trollo on February 21, 2012, 08:46:43 am
Guess we need a new thread.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on February 21, 2012, 09:29:21 am
No.

Because the Presidential Election is worth 2 sentences and can be posted in the other thread:

"Gauck got ____ votes, while _____ electoral voters (mostly from the Left and the Nazis opposed him."

"Gauck will be sworn in on _____"

The end.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 21, 2012, 09:33:58 am
^^^

Frankly, local by-elections are more interesting.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on February 21, 2012, 09:42:10 am
It would have been somewhat interesting if the CDU hadn't conceded defeat. Now it's not really worthy of being mentioned...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 21, 2012, 09:52:46 am
Yeah, the exciting stuff happened this weekend... sunday in particular.

On March 18, Gauck will be rubberstamped. The only remaining question is whether the Left decided to run a candidate of their own.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 21, 2012, 10:12:59 am
Merge plz.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Claude Trollo on February 21, 2012, 10:26:40 am
On March 18, Gauck will be rubberstamped. The only remaining question is whether the Left decided to run a candidate of their own.

Considering they have no warm feelings for Gauck, they certainly will run a candidate.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 21, 2012, 11:28:52 am
On March 18, Gauck will be rubberstamped. The only remaining question is whether the Left decided to run a candidate of their own.

Considering they have no warm feelings for Gauck, they certainly will run a candidate.

They could also vote "no". But a Left candidate is probably more likely, yes.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on February 22, 2012, 04:37:19 am
A new poll from Forsa for the next federal election:

CDU/CSU: 38%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 2%
Greens: 15%
Linke: 8%
Pirates: 8%
Others: 4%

Anybody else sees a "grand" coalition on the horizon?

wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: You kip if you want to... on February 22, 2012, 07:51:12 pm
No chance of SDP/Green?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on February 22, 2012, 08:01:33 pm
No chance of SDP/Green?

Seems quite unlikely at this point.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Claude Trollo on February 22, 2012, 10:30:31 pm
The Left will run Beate Klarsfeld.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on February 23, 2012, 01:11:20 pm
New poll from Saarland from Infratest dimap (compared to last election)

CDU: 35% (+0,5%)
SPD: 36% (+11,5%)
FDP: 2%  (-7,2%)
Greens: 4%  (-1,9%)
Linke: 15% (-6,3%)
Pirates: 5% (???)
Others: 3%

It'll be interesting if the SPD will work with the Left.

wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/saarland.htm


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 23, 2012, 01:26:27 pm
The Left will run Beate Klarsfeld.

Either her or political scientist Christoph Butterwegge or 2010 candidate Luc Jochimsen again.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 24, 2012, 11:20:14 am
As it stands now, CDU, SPD, FDP and Greens were able to agree on a presidential candidate much faster than the Left Party does for their own candidate. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on February 24, 2012, 01:25:31 pm
I am stunned.

An attack piece on the Left, in a German mainstream media, that actually pinpoints where the problem lies and understands its subject. Get that man out of journalism, he's wasted in that hellbound profession.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,817338,00.html

Required reading if you understand a little German.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 24, 2012, 03:48:24 pm
Well, at least the CDU can now claim that it was right to exclude the Left from the presidential nomination process because the party doesn't even agree with itself let alone any other party.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Colbert on February 27, 2012, 05:11:02 am
don't tell me than pirate voters are ONLY motivate by the possibility of downloading movies????


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on February 27, 2012, 07:42:49 am
don't tell me than pirate voters are ONLY motivate by the possibility of downloading movies????

The majority of Pirate voters probably don't even know much about the party they're voting for. It's a protest vote, more than anything else.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 27, 2012, 08:06:28 am
don't tell me than pirate voters are ONLY motivate by the possibility of downloading movies????

That plays only a very minor part in the party's public perception. If anything, their pro-civil liberties/anti-government surveillance stance is their most well-known political position.

Mostly they are seen as a fresher and better version of the Greens though. A non-extremist alternative to the "establishment" parties.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on February 27, 2012, 08:19:09 am
Ah, well, and the Left has finally settled on Beate Klarsfeld as their presidential candidate... after the two other folks have dropped out.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 03, 2012, 08:53:44 am
No.

Because the Presidential Election is worth 2 sentences and can be posted in the other thread:

"Gauck got ____ votes, while _____ electoral voters (mostly from the Left and the Nazis opposed him."

"Gauck will be sworn in on _____"

The end.
18th March. He'll be sworn in right after the vote.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 03, 2012, 08:59:41 am
FR has some sort of poll. By Omniquest, and done American style, without excluding undecideds. Also didn't poll the minor candidates.

Rhein 32.1
Feldmann 19.4
Heilig 12.4
Förster 4.3
Wißler 2.8
other / NOTA 8.7 (apparently. Deduced from the other figures adding to 91.3)
undecided 20.3

And a second poll by the same pollster, with one week to go:

Rhein 30.0
Feldmann 22.3
Heilig 10.9
Förster 3.6
Wißler 2.4
Fechter (getting a breakout now) 2.0
other / NOTA / refused to state (at least they now clearly state it's summed from these three) 10.5
undecided 18.3

Definitely headed to a runoff on the 25th.

I shall be voting for Jean-Jules. Somebody's got to do it. ;D Besides, it doesn't matter one jot who I vote for as long as I do vote and it's not for Rhein.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 03, 2012, 09:06:13 am
Besides, I approve of his dining habits.

Tatchouop lives on a diet of hot water, honey, lemons, apple cider vinegar and almonds. I kid you not.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 03, 2012, 09:57:58 am
Presumably you'll be wanting maps of both rounds? ;D


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 03, 2012, 10:18:23 am
Certainly so.

If we could have the second round map on the day after the first round is held, that would be particularly nice. -_-


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 03, 2012, 10:20:15 am
If we could have the second round map on the day after the first round is held, that would be particularly nice. -_-

I'll do my best, but you'll have to handle things at the practical end.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 03, 2012, 10:26:13 am
You know, I found a voter notification card on the street for someone with a Romanian-sounding surname living in a building with lots of single room apartments and a largely transient population. The mailbox with his name on is overflowing and there's no doorbell with his name. I guess he's moved away and the apartment's not been re-let yet.

I was momentarily tempted to request a postal ballot sent to some friend's address with the thing (couldn't have used my own very well since I think that'd be a tad suspicious, being on the very next block and all) but I fought it down. And stuffed it right back into the full mailbox.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 04, 2012, 09:53:41 am
lol@ internet userpolls.

On the FNP website...

Schmitt 44%
Fechter 20%
Feldmann 15%
Rhein 8%
Förster 5%
Wißler 3%
Heilig 3%

ahem.

Also, shame that Janine Wißler is not her second cousin Janina Wißler. ;D


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 05, 2012, 12:35:48 pm
The NPD has nominated "historian" Olaf Rose as their presidential candidate. "Historian" because he mainly writes stuff about the great statesman Adolf Hitler and how he become a victim of evil Allied warmongering etc.

Seems we're complete now with the trio of Gauck, Klarsfeld, and Rose.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 08, 2012, 02:41:59 pm
I found this cartoon funny. It's called "Deutscher Stammtisch" and it's about Ex-President Wulff's recent demands and Greece:

(http://www.stuttmann-karikaturen.de/karikaturen/kari_20120302_Stammtisch_kol.gif)

:)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on March 08, 2012, 06:35:58 pm
200.000, die unser Staat wenigstens (größtenteils) auch hat :)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 09, 2012, 03:04:15 pm
Postal turnout up almost 50% on 2007. Mind you, that's on 2007.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 09, 2012, 03:21:02 pm
LOL.

FDP @ 1% in Saarland and 2% in Schleswig-Holstein ahead of the state elections:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/saarland.htm

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/schleswig-holstein.htm


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on March 09, 2012, 04:09:51 pm
Are articles starting to appear in German newspapers with headlines like "End of the Road for FDP?"? New parties pop up and old parties disappear...when the FDP is getting as low as 1 or 2% in some state elections and polling at 2 or 3% nationally - you have to wonder if that party could just DIE?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Make Politics Boring Again on March 09, 2012, 05:25:51 pm
Actually, why exactly has the FDP performed so terribly? Is party infighting *that* bad?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 09, 2012, 06:03:10 pm
1% is just... ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 09, 2012, 06:31:35 pm
Are articles starting to appear in German newspapers with headlines like "End of the Road for FDP?"? New parties pop up and old parties disappear...when the FDP is getting as low as 1 or 2% in some state elections and polling at 2 or 3% nationally - you have to wonder if that party could just DIE?

Not so much. The party is merely seen to be a constant state of crisis. Something most people have gotten used to it and accepted as "normal" by now. :P  Also, they're still represented in eleven state parliaments and five state governments (which is the same number of state governments Greens and Left have combined btw).

The narrative could change as soon as we're only a few months from the next federal election away and the party would still poll well below 5% nationally (so, around summer of 2013).



Actually, why exactly has the FDP performed so terribly? Is party infighting *that* bad?

What infighting?? That's the FDP, not the Left Party. The FDP is in a state of apathy, not in one of conflict. For starters, the FDP's senior personnel simply sucks. They've got a substandard chairman (Rösler) who's the successor of a another substandard chairman (Westerwelle). And the only reason why Rösler's still there is because his successor would probably be even worse.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on March 10, 2012, 12:28:36 pm
Fun note : the son of Beate Klarsfeld, Arno Klarsfeld, is a French right-winger close to Sarkozy. I assume the two are not in very good terms... ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: MaxQue on March 10, 2012, 02:18:00 pm
Fun note : the son of Beate Klarsfeld, Arno Klarsfeld, is a French right-winger close to Sarkozy. I assume the two are not in very good terms... ;)

No, she publically endorsed Sarkozy.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on March 10, 2012, 03:32:05 pm
Fun note : the son of Beate Klarsfeld, Arno Klarsfeld, is a French right-winger close to Sarkozy. I assume the two are not in very good terms... ;)

No, she publically endorsed Sarkozy.

And she is Die Linke's candidate !

So, politics really make no sense.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 10, 2012, 03:34:46 pm
So, politics really make no sense.

Slow learner, bist?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on March 10, 2012, 03:37:21 pm
So, politics really make no sense.

Slow learner, bist?

No matter how much times I realize that, I always get stunned.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: MaxQue on March 10, 2012, 03:37:32 pm
Fun note : the son of Beate Klarsfeld, Arno Klarsfeld, is a French right-winger close to Sarkozy. I assume the two are not in very good terms... ;)

No, she publically endorsed Sarkozy.

And she is Die Linke's candidate !

So, politics really make no sense.

Well, they oppose a well-known anti-commie by a well-known anti-nazi.

Ideology has taken vacations during that election.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on March 11, 2012, 03:57:53 am
At Frankfurt Hbf after having been in Bockenheim. The election seems to be running peacefully. :)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 11, 2012, 04:55:34 am
At Frankfurt Hbf after having been in Bockenheim. The election seems to be running peacefully. :)
Yeah, I didn't see any other voters at a quarter to ten. Not surprising, mind.

Some fun stats on Booming Frankfurt (lol)

464k registered voters (up 28k on 2007)
of which 58k not German citizens (but citizens of another EU country; otherwise they would not be allowed to vote) (up 11k)
voters under 35 125k (up 20k)
voters over 60 134k (up 1k)
...and now for something that doesn't fit with the above...
voters 45-59 119k (up 13k)
voters 35-44k 86k (down 6k)
Now ask yourself: who's turned 45 since 2007? Ah, right. The last few actual baby boomers (who're younger than the people usually associated with the term, and in turn younger in Germany than in the US.)

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0e/Bevoelkerungsentwicklung_deutschland.png/800px-Bevoelkerungsentwicklung_deutschland.png)

EDIT: I'll learn quoting wikipedia images correctly yet. One day.

and some numbers on the foreigner increase...

from pre-2004 member states 36k (up 600), including 12k Italians, 5500 Greeks, etc pp
from the 2004 Ten 14k (up 2700) including 10k Poles (up 2000)
from Romania 4200 (up 2900), from Bulgaria 3700 (up 2800).



Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 11, 2012, 05:01:53 am
Not just in Frankfurt.

It seems a lot of people from the East have come to all of (mostly southern Germany) and Austria in the past year to look for work, because the labor markets in GER/AUT were opened to the Eastern Europeans about 1 year ago.

But it's nothing compared to what the FPÖ predicted ("massive immigration tsunami of Eastern Europeans into Austria", "they take ouuuurr jooobs").

Maybe 10.000 or 20.000 have come here in the past year.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on March 11, 2012, 05:04:20 am
And I've left Frankfurt (and am going through that godawful state of R-P at present), but Frankfurt looked very quiet and gray on this Sunday morning.

Doesn't really matter, as a run-off seems certain.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 11, 2012, 05:13:07 am
And I've left Frankfurt (and am going through that godawful state of R-P at present), but Frankfurt looked very quiet and gray on this Sunday morning.

Doesn't really matter, as a run-off seems certain.
Not warm, not cold, not rainy, not sunny. It's the kind of weather turnout operations hope for on a polling day, except that they basically don't exist in Germany of course.

Just checking my numbers and found what seemed like an error as the increase in foreign voters summed didn't add up with the numbers at the bottom. a) the breakdown by country, for either year, comes from a slightly different source with a slightly different timestamp. b) and this is the real reason, Romania and Bulgaria were admitted to the European Union less than 30 days before the 2007 election (27 days to be exact) and it seems that Romanians and Bulgarians were either not allowed to vote in that or - more likely given what I know of German voter registration law - actually were allowed to vote but for formal reasons could not be included on the preliminary register released 30 days before the election. Which is the 2007 comparison point because of course the 2012 figures are also from the preliminary register.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 11, 2012, 09:30:32 am
Results will start coming in what sort of time?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 11, 2012, 09:52:08 am
Results will start coming in what sort of time?

Polls usually close at 6pm in Germany (don't know if they do in Frankfurt as well in local elections).

That would be in about 2 hours.

Counting takes about 2-3 hours I guess.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 11, 2012, 01:19:24 pm
Rhein seems to win the 1st round with 39%.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: MaxQue on March 11, 2012, 01:37:32 pm
Who will be in the runoff with him?
Donau?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 11, 2012, 01:42:57 pm
Who will be in the runoff with him?
Donau?

No, Klaus Main.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 11, 2012, 02:46:07 pm
Nein zu Rhein - Rhein rhaus!



Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 11, 2012, 02:48:29 pm
Rhein (CDU) 39.1
Feldmann (SPD) 33.0
Heilig (Greens) 14.0
Fechter (FAG) 4.0
Wißler (Left) 3.8
Förster (Pirate) 3.8
Schmitt (PARTEI) 1.8
Tatchoup (i) 0.2
Frenzel (i) 0.2
Schulte (i) 0.1
Turnout: Abysmal. (37.5%, which probably means that the number of day voters was virtually unchanged on 2007.)

Not a done deal, but my money's very much on Feldmann for the runoff.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 11, 2012, 03:20:57 pm
http://www.wahlen.frankfurt.de/

Some odd patterns here. Along with some known or guessable patterns, of course.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 11, 2012, 03:56:42 pm
Despite that could-be-worse result, Heilig didn't win a single precinct.

Fairly strong gap between absentee and day result:

Day Rhein 37.1, Feldmann 34.2
Absentee Rhein 45.9, Feldmann 25.8
These percentages are of votes cast, not valid votes - not going to sum all candidates across all absentee precincts to find out the valid vote total breakdown.
Put another way, absentees were 18.3% of all votes, cast, 21.7% of Rhein's and 14.4% of Feldmann's.
Put yet another way, 61% of Rhein's margin of victory was accrued before polling day.
But I guess that happens when there's only one rightwing candidate.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 12, 2012, 07:27:51 am
And the Green infighting now is funny, though all the quoted people's opinions are utterly predictable:

Cunitz, Sorge - pro Rhein
Heilig, Nouripour - anti any endorsement (read: will be voting for Feldmann but can't say that out loud given the coalition. Certainly in Heilig's case.)
Cohn-Bendit - pro Feldmann


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 12, 2012, 07:36:43 am
There shall be a map... I think by this evening? Maybe?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: MaxQue on March 12, 2012, 07:38:57 am
Cohn-Bendit?

Isn't he French?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 12, 2012, 07:55:45 am
Cohn-Bendit?

Isn't he French?
Cohn-Bendit is a Frankfurt icon and a Frankfurt Green older statesman / grey eminence / senile old man muttering in the background.
He's also French, of course. :)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 13, 2012, 06:53:43 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/8_13_03_12_6_51_28.PNG)

The general patterns are what they are and so on. But... um... certain details?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: MaxQue on March 13, 2012, 07:09:10 pm
So, FAG is tha anti-airport party?
And the airport is to the south of city, I suppose?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on March 13, 2012, 08:33:34 pm
So, FAG is tha anti-airport party?
And the airport is to the south of city, I suppose?

Not really. But it's the part of the city that airplanes regularly fly over.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 14, 2012, 04:54:51 am
So, FAG is tha anti-airport party?
And the airport is to the south of city, I suppose?
The airport is that odd southwest corner.

The personal votes for Feldmann (Bonames, probably some influence on the Frankfurter Berg as well) and Rhein (Nieder-Eschbach, not quite as pronounced) are funny. Petra Roth did always have some such bonus in Nieder-Erlenbach as well, but none of the last SPD candidates did.
Feldmann did much better than the SPD usually does in the Green stronghold areas, of course, but that's to be expected in a persons vote. Though it also happened in the Ypsilanti election of 2008; a lot of the seeming core Green vote is explicitly Red-Green in practice. And indeed, there seems to be a bit of an income pattern to Feldmann's success among Green voters (again, as also in 2008).
Turnout in certain effed areas was atrocious; sometimes even worse than in 2007. This has a turnout-differential effect, most visibly in the Gutleut, where the new yuppie developments in Westhafen outvoted the much larger remainder of the Stadtteil; their turnout was high. Feldmann won the remainder of it.
Fechter took the same kind of share citywide as the FAG took in the 2001 and 2006 council elections, but the pattern was even more pronounced than usual. She took 7 points more than back then in Sachsenhausen S and Niederrad, even less north of the river.
The Schmitt, Förster and Wißler maps are the expected mix of macro-Green/Old PDS and Random/Protest, but what's odd is that while Schmitt's distribution is the most "Green", Förster's, not Wißler's, is the most Protest-party-like (I even ran a correlation calculation on this thing. There's next to no correlation between Heilig and Förster, but both correlate with Wißler and Schmitt. Wißler's map is also a fairly good negative of Rhein's - the strongest negative correlation in there).
Oh, and turnout turnout turnout. High in the suburbs and the Green Bobo areas. Feldmann's map looks like a reasonablish class map, unless you start looking at his share of registered voters rather than vote cast. Then... uh.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 14, 2012, 05:08:28 am
Seems like we're gonna have early elections in Northrhine-Westphalia as well this year.

So three state elections in Germany then. NRW won't be that exicting though. As it stands now, early elections would transform the incumbent SPD/Green minority government into a SPD/Green majority government.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 14, 2012, 05:18:10 am
Seems like we're gonna have early elections in Northrhine-Westphalia as well this year.

So three state elections in Germany then. NRW won't be that exicting though. As it stands now, early elections would transform the incumbent SPD/Green minority government into a SPD/Green majority government.
Wow. FDP and Left both intending to vote for an Early Christmas? How silly can it get?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 14, 2012, 05:19:32 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/205_14_03_12_5_16_39.PNG)

Top map is simple over/under average contrast for share of the vote (Westend S and Old Town are right on average for the Greens, actually).
Bottom map is the same... for share of the electorate.

Have a look at the SPD. I don't even know what the hell that is a map of.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 14, 2012, 06:32:53 am
Apparently the NRW-FDP folks decided to book a trip to Guyana and drink some kool aid.

2012 is a good year so far.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on March 14, 2012, 07:00:30 am
The FDP , Linke , (and CDU to a lesser extent) are insane.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on March 14, 2012, 07:12:51 am
Great day! Especially for NRW!

Latest Poll shows:

SPD: 35%
CDU: 35%
Greens: 17%
FDP: 2%
Left: 3%
Pirates: 5%
Others: 3%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm

I heard from an acquaintance from the political scene that the date for the elections is probably the 13th of May.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 14, 2012, 07:13:09 am
I already heard the half-serious joke that the NRW-FDP probably wants to get rid of Philipp Rösler as federal chairman. :D Hence their current suicide mission in the NRW state parliament.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 14, 2012, 08:08:58 am
YouGov poll for NRW, apparently released today (?)

SPD 33%
CDU 33%
Greens 17%
Pirates 7%
Left 5%
FDP 2%

Majority for SPD/Greens


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 14, 2012, 09:55:59 am
Pretty tight schedule this year...

March 18: Presidential election (Federal convention)
March 25: Saarland state election
May 6: Schleswig-Holstein state election
May 13: Northrhine-Westphalia state election


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2012, 11:26:32 am
Have a look at the SPD. I don't even know what the hell that is a map of.

Stable working class areas, those RedGreen swingers and suburbs full of ex-working class people Who Have Done Well For Themselves?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 14, 2012, 12:44:42 pm
Have a look at the SPD. I don't even know what the hell that is a map of.

Stable working class areas, those RedGreen swingers and suburbs full of ex-working class people Who Have Done Well For Themselves?
I'm of half a mind - only half, mind - to describe it simply as "stable areas". It was the best description I could find. Of course, that's still excempting the special situation on the left bank.

"Suburb full ow ex-working cass people Who Have Done Well For Themselves" sounds like a description of Nieder-Eschbach.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 14, 2012, 05:17:50 pm
Infratest dimap poll for Northrhine-Westphalia, conducted and released today:

SPD 38%
CDU 34%
Greens 14%
Pirates 5%
Left 4%
FDP 2%



Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 15, 2012, 02:57:35 am
Infratest dimap poll for Northrhine-Westphalia, conducted and released today:

SPD 38%
CDU 34%
Greens 14%
Pirates 5%
Left 4%
FDP 2%

:)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 15, 2012, 03:03:17 am
Nice article:

Germany’s most populous state to hold new elections as govt stumbles over budget

BERLIN — Germany’s most populous state will hold early elections after its minority government narrowly failed to get a budget passed Wednesday — a prospect that could boost the country’s center-left opposition.

All 181 members of the state legislature in North Rhine-Westphalia voted to dissolve it. That means a new regional election must be held within 60 days, although no date was immediately set.

North Rhine-Westphalia, a western region of some 18 million people that includes Cologne and the Ruhr industrial region, is governed by the center-left Social Democrats and Greens.

The vote Wednesday came hours after a budget proposal from the state government fell one vote short of a majority. Center-right opponents have accused it of poor financial management and demanded more belt-tightening.

Polls suggest Social Democratic Governor Hannelore Kraft and her coalition could benefit from the new election, which comes three years ahead of schedule. Those parties are in opposition nationally to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right government, but state governments wield influence in highly federalized Germany — not the least via the upper house of parliament, where they are represented.

Kraft’s center-left alliance took power in 2010, replacing a coalition of Merkel’s conservatives and the pro-market Free Democrats — the parties that form the national government.

Both voted against the new budget Wednesday because they wanted to reduce the state’s borrowing.

Merkel said new elections offered a prospect to elect “a government that won’t obstruct the state’s opportunities by taking on ever more debt.”

Norbert Roettgen, the local chairman of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union who is also her federal environment minister, said he would lead its bid to take back the state.

But that looks like an uphill struggle. Polls suggest Kraft’s coalition has a good chance of winning a majority and that the Free Democrats will struggle to win the 5 percent needed to keep their seats.

The Free Democrats, battered by their failure to win tax cuts, already are in danger of being ejected from two other state parliaments in votes over the next two months.

Elections in North Rhine-Westphalia won’t have a direct effect on the federal government. But an election campaign may prove a distraction, with national elections due in the fall of 2013.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/germanys-most-populous-state-to-hold-new-elections-as-govt-stumbles-over-budget/2012/03/14/gIQAGBR4BS_story.html


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 15, 2012, 06:39:19 am
So turkeys do still vote for early Christmases at times.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 16, 2012, 07:50:16 am
Shipload of new polls for the March/May state elections has arrived.


Saarland (Infratest dimap, 03/15)
CDU 33%
SPD 33%
Left 16%
Pirates 6%
Greens 5%
FDP 3%

Saarland (FGW, 03/16)
CDU 34%
SPD 34%
Left 15%
Pirates 6%
Greens 5%
FDP 2%

Schleswig-Holstein (dimap, 03/16)
CDU 34%
SPD 33%
Greens 15%
Pirates 5%
SSW 4%
FDP 4%
Left 3%

Northrhine-Westphalia (FGW, 03/15)
SPD 37%
CDU 34%
Greens 13%
Pirates 6%
Left 4%
FDP 2%


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 18, 2012, 08:24:45 am
Presidential result complained (no wait, that's not the word I meant. Damn, what is it... ugh, this actually took me a moment. Proclaimed, of course.)

991 to 126.
Somebody look up how many faithless electors that is, I can't be bothered. 7 electors were absent. The two Pirates abstained.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 18, 2012, 09:40:11 am
Joachim Gauck 991
Beate Klarsfeld 126
Olaf Rose 3
Abstentions 108
Invalid votes 4

CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens, and FDP have exactly 1100 electors together. Along with Free Voters and SSW, who had endorsed Gauck too, its 1111.

The Left has 124 electors, the NPD 3.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 18, 2012, 02:24:49 pm
Frankfurt once again did special ballots marked by age and gender in 24 selected precincts...

here are the results. First table compares turnout with previous mayoral elections, interesting point about the electorate this time having been somewhat on the young side, comparatively:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/205_18_03_12_2_17_10.JPG)

I hope you're all aware of the reason behind the pattern of male turnout among over 60s being higher than women's? No, it's not that these old wifeys come from a world when voting was a man's thing. That was the original theory when the pattern was first discovered half a century ago, and maybe it was a factor then, but maybe it never was. It's that because female life expectancy is higher, women over 60 are on average a fair few years older than men over 60, and more of them are very old and, frequently, infirm/senile/just not capable of and interested in caring about politicians not old enough to be their children and that they first heard of when they were already old. If you'd map turnout in Germany by single year of age, it'd slowly but steadily rise and rise and rise from age 18 to approximately life expectancy, and then jump off a cliff.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/205_18_03_12_2_18_20.JPG)

The apolitical/random Pirate pattern is explained, I suppose. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on March 21, 2012, 03:41:49 am
A new NRW poll released today (compared to 2010 results)

CDU: 33% (-1,6)
SPD: 39% (+4,5)
Greens: 11% (-1,1)
Left: 4% (-1,6)
FDP: 4% (-2,7)
Pirates: 6% (+4,6)
Others: 3% (-1,9)

Kraft is also much more popular. In a direct election 56 percent would vote for her, 26 percent for Röttgen.


http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on March 21, 2012, 03:49:01 am
And a poll from RLP:

CDU: 36% (+0,8)
SPD: 36% (+0,3)
Greens: 15% (-0,4)
FDP: 3% (-1,2)
Left: 2% (-1)
Pirates: 4% (+2,4)

Solid Red-Green majority.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/rheinland-pfalz.htm


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 21, 2012, 05:34:50 am
A new NRW poll released today (compared to 2010 results)

...

FDP: 4% (-2,7)

Lindner surge!

Hey, even I like the guy a bit. :P They send their best man (that they've got left anyway).


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 21, 2012, 06:05:35 am
Lindner surge!

Barney Lindner 2012 !!!

(http://www.felix-welt.de/wp-content/uploads/2011-04-06-barney.jpg)

:P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 24, 2012, 12:04:52 pm
Overview on Frankfurt endorsements:
FAG - Feldmann (yesterday)
Greens - none (decided early)
Greens at Frankfurt University - Feldmann
FW - Rhein. Also late.
Left - Feldmann (no, technically they just told people to vote despite there being no good choice in order to prevent the unstomachable Rhein, without mentioning Feldmann by name ;D )
Pirates - Feldmann. Reasonably early. Which the local papers and state broadcasting appear to have decided to suppress.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 24, 2012, 12:18:17 pm
I almost forgot there's a state election in Saarland tomorrow.

Here's my prediction:

35% SPD
33% CDU
16% Left
  5% Pirates
  5% Greens

  2% FDP 
  4% Others

Results in a SPD-CDU Grand Coalition.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 04:20:43 am
I almost forgot there's a state election in Saarland tomorrow.
Everybody does.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 25, 2012, 05:21:38 am
Saarland's population is slightly smaller than Rhode Island's and CDU and SPD have agreed on a grand coalition beforehand.

So, there are only two semi-important questions to settle:
1) Who becomes the strongest party, because this decides who is going to be minister-president in the grand coalition?
2) Are Greens and Pirates going to make it?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 06:33:02 am
Basically the fresh elections are the price the CDU has to pay for the Grand Coalition, yeah.
Then again, who knows what happens in negotiations afterwards. We've seen quite a few surprises in recent years.

The Saar Pirates have barely been founded and didn't have any sort of program by the time the election was called. The Greens deserve to be punished for Jamaica.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2012, 10:08:39 am
Polls close at 6 ?

Do you think the Left with Oskar Lafontaine is once again underestimated, like before the last election ?

Do you think the Pirates are overestimated ?

I think both could be true.

We'll see in 50 minutes ...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2012, 10:22:53 am
Turnout reports from 14:00 suggest that turnout might be back at the low end from 2004, when only 56% went to the polls. It could be slightly higher this year, somewhere between 55-60%.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2012, 10:55:08 am
Exit Polls in 5 minutes.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2012, 11:02:41 am
18:00 Exit Poll (N-TV):

34.5% CDU
31.0% SPD
16.0% Left
  7.5% Pirates
  5.0% Greens
  1.5% FDP
  4.5% Others


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2012, 11:04:39 am
ARD Exit Poll:

(http://www.sr-online.de/servlet/de.blueorange.xred.util.GetFile/Hochrechnung1_335?db=sronline&tbl=int_xredimage&key=id&keyval=1393875&imgcol=xred_file)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2012, 11:07:27 am
Hmm, didn't expect the SPD to underpoll ...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 11:09:08 am
Very  strong Pirate showing. Hope the Greens snuff it. ;D

Turnout in Frankfurt estimated at 34.5% (down 3.0 on first round)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 25, 2012, 11:10:55 am
Hope the Greens snuff it. ;D

Jörg Schönenborn strongly implied that they probably won't.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on March 25, 2012, 11:12:28 am
Another grand coalition in Saarland?  Wow, big change there.  The SPD is too chicken to join forces with the Left there too, I take it?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 11:12:52 am
Hope the Greens snuff it. ;D

Jörg Schönenborn strongly implied that they probably won't.
They always seem to treat 5.0% as just over 5% on the telly.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 25, 2012, 11:15:26 am
29% of all male first-time voters voted Pirate.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2012, 11:16:09 am
Let's see if the Greens are above 5% in the final vote count. Usually, when they have 5% in the exit poll, they will end up at less than 5% in the vote count. SPD-Left would have a majority then and maybe the SPD says Heiko Maas needs to go and we enter a SPD-Left coalition.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2012, 11:18:48 am
1st ARD projection:

(http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotechart282_v-grossgalerie16x9.jpg)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 11:19:04 am
Frankfurt, 50/461 precincts  in already.

Peter Feldmann 59.5%. Wtf? I guess I need to check what precincts those are. ;D


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2012, 11:21:17 am
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) also wins the direct vote for Prime Minister:

(http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotechart294_v-grossgalerie16x9.jpg)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 25, 2012, 11:21:39 am
Another grand coalition in Saarland?  Wow, big change there.

Why's that? This would be the first grand coalition Saarland had since 1961.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 11:23:29 am
Another grand coalition in Saarland?  Wow, big change there.

Why's that? This would be the first grand coalition Saarland had since 1961.
I think he meant, yet another state with a grand coalition, the Saar this time.

Have had a look at those precincts. Will get closer, but no way does Rhein win this.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on March 25, 2012, 11:24:06 am
Another grand coalition in Saarland?  Wow, big change there.

Why's that? This would be the first grand coalition Saarland had since 1961.
Because the CDU would still hold the governor's office, and it would only be a hair more left-wing than the CDU-FDP-Greens coalition.  


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 11:27:38 am
Half the precincts are in. Wow, counting is fast when there's only one vote and two piles to make.

Feldmann 58.4%. This looks like a landslide folks. This is 3 percentage points beyond my wildest dreams.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2012, 11:30:52 am
(http://wahltool.zdf.de/2012-03-25-LT-DE-SL/_hp/html/panogross-Ergebnis-SAAR2012-20120325182535.png)

BTW: Feldmann is the SPD-guy in Frankfurt ? When was the last time Frankfurt had a SPD-mayor ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on March 25, 2012, 11:33:53 am
LOL. They could have a SPD-left government and instead they choose another stupid grand coalition which will govern to the right. Germany is quite depressing.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 25, 2012, 11:36:26 am
Presumably there are personal 'issues' between the Saarland SPD and Saarland Left? Given that the latter are defectors from the former?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 11:36:43 am
Nieder-Erlenbach is complete. Rhein 60.6% (+3.9), turnout 51.0% (-1.3).

So is the Riederwald. Rhein 26.5% (-1.5), turnout 32.5% (-1.3).

Lol, it's a partial result with no postal votes, but Feldmann is ahead in Westend North! ;D


BTW: Feldmann is the SPD-guy in Frankfurt ? When was the last time Frankfurt had a SPD-mayor ?
1989 to 1995. Two of them, both ruined by the SPD right wing disliking their Green coalition partner and hating the SPD left wing.
Then we had the newly introduced direct elections and a popular moderate female Landtag member as CDU candidate... and now she's been mayor for literally half my life, but now retiring.
At the last local elections of course, the SPD dropped to third place behind the CDU's Green coalition partner...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 11:38:22 am
Presumably there are personal 'issues' between the Saarland SPD and Saarland Left? Given that the latter are defectors from the former?
These seemed surmountable as recently as the last state election. But the German left (political caste) right now is pathetic, there's really no other word for it. That includes the Left as well as the SPD and Greens. And hence the emergence of the Pirates.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2012, 11:40:43 am
Results:

http://www.statistikextern.saarland.de/wahlen/wahlen/2012/internet_saar/LT_SL_12/landesergebnisse


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on March 25, 2012, 11:40:49 am
Presumably there are personal 'issues' between the Saarland SPD and Saarland Left? Given that the latter are defectors from the former?

Maybe they should start wondering why these people defected ? And why so many voters also defected the SPD in favor of them ?

(yes, I know I'm dreaming)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 11:41:17 am
Still 58.0%. Party time. If I were Olaf Cunitz or Sarah Sorge I'd think about resigning right now, but then that's part of the reason why I'm not.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 11:41:46 am
Results:

http://www.statistikextern.saarland.de/wahlen/wahlen/2012/internet_saar/LT_SL_12/landesergebnisse
I have much prettier results!

http://www.wahlen.frankfurt.de/


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 11:43:57 am
Oh yeah, the PARTEI auctioned off its endorsement on ebay (money raised to be donated to the Zoo for cuter animals, the renovation of the meerkats' place to be precise.) A Feldmann supporter payed 122 Euros for it.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2012, 11:46:44 am
In which precinct of Frankfurt are you living again ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 25, 2012, 11:48:09 am
I have much prettier results!

Any idea why it's such a (pretty) blowout?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 25, 2012, 11:54:08 am
New NRW poll from Infratest-dimap

SPD 40%
CDU 32%
Greens 12%
Pirates 5%
FDP 4%
Left 3%


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 11:57:44 am
In which precinct of Frankfurt are you living again ?
080 01. 64% Feldmann, 0% turnout (okay 21% + postal voters, but still...)
I have much prettier results!

Any idea why it's such a (pretty) blowout?
Green voters came through for Feldmann anyways just as I expected, FAG voters did actually come through for Feldmann as I didn't expect. Those South Sachsenhausen precincts are deep black when the airport's not an issue. And then... uh... what, exactly? My personal ideas on what drove (comparative) youth turnout in the first round look to have been accurate - more of an anti Rhein vote than anything else, for all of the minor candidates. I mean, this is the state interior minister after all. I know what the Ultras think of him... ;D


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 12:08:49 pm
And Feldmann did actually win Westend North. By six votes and all, but still. Unterliederbach, too, and almost won Berkersheim.

Also, the last dozen precincts are annoying me by not coming through.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 12:26:20 pm
Final result. 57.4%. 35.1% turnout. My mom's new precinct on the very edge of official North End where nobody would ever think themselves not in Bornheim was one of Feldmann's strongest in the entire city. 77.2%. (That special Ginnheim precinct gave him 82%, though.)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 12:32:10 pm
Westend South, Zeilsheim, Sossenheim, Berkersheim, the four in the north. That's it. Anything else is a sea of red.

Some of these places haven't been carried by the SPD since the mid 70s, if then.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 12:35:29 pm
Meanwhile, the CDU repeats its win in the city of Saarbrücken.

By 2 votes.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 12:51:50 pm
Things repeat on the Saar... the last few municipalities just don't want through. Worth noting the Greens are on 5.1% right now with Saarbrücken and Saarlouis already in.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 12:58:34 pm
Not going to bother with how the seat distribution will work out, so here's just the top two candidates from each of the three regional lists for the Pirates.

(http://piratenpartei-saarland.de/wp-content/gallery/cache/291__320x240_andreas_augustin.jpg)  (http://piratenpartei-saarland.de/wp-content/gallery/cache/302__320x240_michael_neyses.jpg)  (http://piratenpartei-saarland.de/wp-content/gallery/cache/296__320x240_michael_hilberer.jpg) and definitely not least (http://piratenpartei-saarland.de/wp-content/gallery/cache/295__320x240_jasmin_maurer.jpg)

EDIT: Removed the two people not elected.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 25, 2012, 01:01:09 pm
(http://piratenpartei-saarland.de/wp-content/gallery/cache/295__320x240_jasmin_maurer.jpg)

OMG, a woman! Well, girl. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 25, 2012, 01:03:23 pm
Btw, I still find it hilarious that the first (and perhaps only) Pirate woman who would enter the state parliament in Schleswig-Holstein is former Green federal chairwoman Angelika Beer.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on March 25, 2012, 01:18:23 pm
How comes turnout figures are so abysmal ? Is it commonplace in German mayoral elections ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 25, 2012, 01:25:39 pm
Official result for Saarland was just proclaimed.

CDU 35.2%
SPD 30.6%
Left 16.1%
Pirates 7.4%
Greens 5.0%
Family Party 1.7%
FDP 1.2%
NPD 1.2%


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 25, 2012, 01:30:20 pm
Notable Saarland figures:

- FDP beats the NPD by 267 votes and therefore manages to come in seventh instead of eighth. :P

- Precise result for the Greens is 5.039%.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2012, 01:31:19 pm
Pretty sad state for a party that fights with the NPD ... :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 25, 2012, 01:33:41 pm
(http://www.statistikextern.saarland.de/wahlen/wahlen/2012/internet_saar/LT_SL_12/landesergebnisse/grafik_sitze_10.png)

Majority for SPD-Left by 1.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: jeron on March 25, 2012, 01:48:12 pm
Pretty sad state for a party that fights with the NPD ... :P

It's the third worst result ever for the FDP in state elections. (The worst results were 1.1% in Thuringen and Sachsen in 1999. That year the FDP had 2.6% in Saarland, btw)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 02:01:57 pm
Notable Saarland figures:

- FDP beats the NPD by 267 votes and therefore manages to come in seventh instead of eighth. :P

- Precise result for the Greens is 5.039%.
Well, drat. And drat.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on March 25, 2012, 02:04:28 pm
How comes turnout figures are so abysmal ? Is it commonplace in German mayoral elections ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 02:10:56 pm
It's not as if the office is all powerful or anything. Or as if Hesse had a tradition of direct mayoral elections that predated the tradition of low turnout in lesser elections - things may sometimes be different in rural settings, but in the cities and the suburbs mayoral elections have the lowest turnout of all.

(And I think that if the CDU had gone with someone less prominent and thus divisive, treasurer Uwe Becker, say, they would have won this election. On an even lower turnout.)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on March 25, 2012, 02:36:58 pm
It's not as if the office is all powerful or anything. Or as if Hesse had a tradition of direct mayoral elections that predated the tradition of low turnout in lesser elections - things may sometimes be different in rural settings, but in the cities and the suburbs mayoral elections have the lowest turnout of all.

(And I think that if the CDU had gone with someone less prominent and thus divisive, treasurer Uwe Becker, say, they would have won this election. On an even lower turnout.)

It's funny how it's basically the reverse in France. Turnout in 2008 mayorals was around 65%, for 2010 regionals it was below 50%.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 25, 2012, 02:43:32 pm
Fun fact: in the 2001 runoff, turnout rose in exactly one neighborhood - the Riederwald - and the CDU score actually fell in exactly one neighborhood - Sindlingen.
In the 2012 runoff, turnout rose in exactly one neighborhood - Bockenheim this time - and the CDU score actually fell in two. The Riederwald. And Sindlingen.
I wonder if there's some kind of crazy explanation or it's just random.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hash on March 25, 2012, 02:50:15 pm
It's not as if the office is all powerful or anything. Or as if Hesse had a tradition of direct mayoral elections that predated the tradition of low turnout in lesser elections - things may sometimes be different in rural settings, but in the cities and the suburbs mayoral elections have the lowest turnout of all.

(And I think that if the CDU had gone with someone less prominent and thus divisive, treasurer Uwe Becker, say, they would have won this election. On an even lower turnout.)

It's funny how it's basically the reverse in France. Turnout in 2008 mayorals was around 65%, for 2010 regionals it was below 50%.

France is one of the few European countries which still gets over 50% turnout in local elections afaik.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 25, 2012, 05:21:01 pm
Since their success in the Berlin state election last September, party membership of the Pirates has nearly doubled (from 12,000 to 22,000 members). Meaning they're now one third as large as the Greens or the FDP. We'll see what effect Saarland has.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on March 25, 2012, 10:02:10 pm
What sort of government is likely to be formed in Saarland? Red-Red or Grand Coalition?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Make Politics Boring Again on March 25, 2012, 10:29:37 pm
How lackluster does FDP leadership have to be, for their party to barely beat the Nazis for seventh place? I thought the Liberal Party of Canada set the world record for terrible party leadership.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 26, 2012, 05:55:05 am
New Bayern poll by TNS Emnid for "Focus" magazine:

46% (+3) CSU
20% (+1) SPD
13% (+4) Greens
  8%  (-2) FW
  5% (+5) Pirates
  2%  (-6) FDP
  6%  (-5) Others (incl. Left Party)

http://www.focus.de/magazin/kurzfassungen/focus-13-2012-umfrage-csu-in-bayern-bei-46-prozent-patt-mit-der-opposition_aid_727567.html


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 26, 2012, 10:55:19 am
From the point of view of current party chairman Philipp Rösler, it doesn't really matter whether the FDP makes it past 5% in the NRW election or not. I assume there will be calls for Christian Lindner to take over party either way.

If the FDP ends up below 5% in NRW it will attributed to Rösler's failed leadership and they will call for his resignation. If the FDP ends up above 5% it will attributed to the fact that Lindner is the only one left in party who's able to win elections and so they will call for Rösler's resignation sooner or later.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 26, 2012, 11:47:29 am
How lackluster does FDP leadership have to be, for their party to barely beat the Nazis for seventh place? I thought the Liberal Party of Canada set the world record for terrible party leadership.
It doesn't help that these snap elections were caused by the complete breakdown of the FDP parliamentary party in the state.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 26, 2012, 12:04:42 pm
I like this picture.

(http://cdn2.spiegel.de/images/image-332031-galleryV9-romp.jpg)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 26, 2012, 12:26:26 pm
Frankfurt, absentee result Feldmann 50.5%, day vote result Feldmann 59.0%.

Basically the same people cast absentee votes in the runoff as in the first round - simply because most people who requested an absentee ballot did so for both rounds at the same time. (All you had to do was check a different box.) And indeed, fewer of the requested postals came back for round two than round one - though the decrease was less than in the day vote, meaning the share of the total vote that was absentee was marginally up further.

Oh, and here's that table again.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/205_26_03_12_12_25_08.jpg)

Lol.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 26, 2012, 02:15:33 pm
I like this picture.

(http://cdn2.spiegel.de/images/image-332031-galleryV9-romp.jpg)

;D

The right one looks like a Pirate, no ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 26, 2012, 02:16:15 pm
He is, he is. The other two are Maas and Kramp-Karrenbauer.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 26, 2012, 02:19:06 pm
He also looks a bit like:

(http://static.tvfanatic.com/images/gallery/south-park-jesus_200x221.jpg)

Maybe they should cast him, if they ever make a real-life South Park movie ... :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 28, 2012, 12:46:06 pm
Feldmann is Jewish ?

He's apparently the first Jewish mayor of Frankfurt since 1933.

Btw, Lewis could you please make your cartoon signature smaller ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 29, 2012, 12:45:43 pm
Schleswig-Holstein poll (Infratest dimap)

CDU 34%
SPD 32%
Greens 15%
Pirates 5%
SSW 4%
FDP 4%
Left 4%


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on March 29, 2012, 01:01:05 pm
FDP 4%

FDP surge ! ;D


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 29, 2012, 01:10:28 pm

Bradley Effect ! ;D


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on March 29, 2012, 01:27:53 pm
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WM266GTET88/T3FIntIHfKI/AAAAAAAARhQ/9k6xzWtiWbo/s1600/Saarland+hat+gew%C3%A4hlt.jpg)

vs.

(http://cfile25.uf.tistory.com/image/196F21474DE76CD11C518D)

;D


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on March 29, 2012, 01:57:14 pm
I wonder whether the FDP is in full self-destruct mode now since they actively sabotaged the Schlecker bailout. How long will the CDU be willing to take this crap?

In any case, Rösler's current strategy to "save" the party seems to be: Be as unpredictable as possible. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 03, 2012, 04:45:46 am
Piratesurge!

Emnid: CDU 36, SPD 27, Greens 13, Pirates 9, Left 7, FDP 3
Forsa: CDU 35, SPD 25, Greens 13, Pirates 12, Left 9, FDP 3

Maybe the SPD should tolerate a Green-Pirate-Left minority coalition after the federal elections. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on April 03, 2012, 11:14:10 am
Piratesurge!

Emnid: CDU 36, SPD 27, Greens 13, Pirates 9, Left 7, FDP 3
Forsa: CDU 35, SPD 25, Greens 13, Pirates 12, Left 9, FDP 3

Maybe the SPD should tolerate a Green-Pirate-Left minority coalition after the federal elections. :P

That would be way preferable to a grand coalition, yeah... :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on April 03, 2012, 12:02:24 pm
Why don't the Greens and the Pirates merge - I can't imagine that they are all that far apart on the issues and they must both appeal to a similar segment of the population.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on April 03, 2012, 08:58:27 pm
Why don't the Greens and the Pirates merge - I can't imagine that they are all that far apart on the issues and they must both appeal to a similar segment of the population.

Yeah, sure, if you can come up with a plan how the Pirates are gonna accept a gender quota for all party positions (or how the Greens are gonna accept abolition of the quota) that doesn't result in murder, mayhem, and man-made megadeaths.

The Greens have a women's quota of 50%, the SPD has a quota of 40%, and the Pirates have none. The Greens think that the SPD's quota is unacceptedly low and not pursued rigorously enough. Figure out the rest.

Besides, what is the point of the Pirates' existence (from the Pirates' point of view), if they're gonna merge with a "mainstream" party at the earliest opportunity? If a Pirate had wanted to join the Greens he had already done so instead of joining the Pirates.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Bro-mentum on April 04, 2012, 10:42:30 am
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WM266GTET88/T3FIntIHfKI/AAAAAAAARhQ/9k6xzWtiWbo/s1600/Saarland+hat+gew%C3%A4hlt.jpg)

awkwardfamilyphotos.com


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 04, 2012, 11:59:22 am
Why don't the Greens and the Pirates merge - I can't imagine that they are all that far apart on the issues and they must both appeal to a similar segment of the population.
Somewhat similar. Certainly the Pirates wouldn't have emerged if the Greens were still the 80s Greens.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on April 04, 2012, 12:17:40 pm
Why don't the Greens and the Pirates merge - I can't imagine that they are all that far apart on the issues and they must both appeal to a similar segment of the population.
Somewhat similar. Certainly the Pirates wouldn't have emerged if the Greens were still the 80s Greens.

Depends on how you define "80s Greens" though. If the Greens were really still the 80s Greens they would pursue a staunch anti-computer/anti-Internet stance. For instance, their somewhat neo-luddite 1987 campaign platform is pretty funny read in that respect. Therefore the Pirates would probably exist and poll at 20% right now. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 04, 2012, 12:25:16 pm
Well yeah, I mostly meant the whole joining the establishment (or rather being joined by people who want to make a career in establishment politics) thing.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on April 08, 2012, 12:42:31 am
For the first time in 2 years, Black-Yellow has overtaken Red-Green - says a new Emnid poll:

36% CDU/CSU
26% SPD
13% Greens
10% Pirates
  7% Left
  4% FDP
  4% Others

40% Black-Yellow
39% Red-Green

There's a 49-43 majority for SPD-Green-Pirates.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on April 08, 2012, 02:33:41 am
Wait, is the FDP really going up ? How comes ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on April 08, 2012, 04:32:54 am
For the first time in 2 years, Black-Yellow has overtaken Red-Green - says a new Emnid poll:

36% CDU/CSU
26% SPD
13% Greens
10% Pirates
  7% Left
  4% FDP
  4% Others

40% Black-Yellow
39% Red-Green

There's a 49-43 majority for SPD-Green-Pirates.

:D

Red-Green is pathetic.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on April 08, 2012, 07:07:05 am
Yeah, from 2013 onwards we're gonna have another Grand coalition under Merkel. We already knew that. :P

Maybe Sigmar Gabriel would be ballsy/crazy enough to actually do a SPD/Green/Pirate coalition, but Steinmeier and Steinbrück like to play it safe. And this means coalition with the CDU.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 08, 2012, 01:17:26 pm
Wow, just took the SlH Wahlomat (http://wahlomat.spiegel.de/sh2012/main_app.php?). I knew the state CDU is that dreadful, but I didn't know how bad the Greens were.

My result
Left 82/102
SSW 72/102
SPD 71/102
Pirates 71/102
Greens 59/102
FW 57/102
NPD 45/102
CDU 31/102

I did not include joke parties (you can include 8 parties maximum).


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on April 08, 2012, 01:37:03 pm
For the first time since taking part in these Wahlomat things, I got the SPD & FW in 1st place and not the Left or the Greens:

85/108 SPD
85/108 FW
78/108 Left
78/108 Familie
76/108 Pirates
75/108 Greens
72/108 SSW
61/108 FDP
61/108 MUD
57/108 NPD
53/108 CDU


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on April 09, 2012, 05:54:36 am
Wahl-O-Mat result for me in Schleswig-Holstein:

1.) FDP 55/76
2.) CDU 54/76
3.) Piraten 43/76
4.) NPD 42/76
5.) SPD 39/76
6.) SSW 37/76
7.) Grüne 36/76
8.) Linke 31/76



Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on April 10, 2012, 02:18:21 am
Double-shoccckkkker !

New Forsa poll shows the Pirates overtaking the Greens (which drop to a new low) and the FDP at 5% again, which is the threshold for entering Parliament:

36% CDSU
24% SPD
13% Pirates
11% Greens
  8% Left
  5% FDP
  3% Others

http://www.rtl.de/cms/news/rtl-aktuell/piraten-ziehen-an-den-gruenen-vorbei-20b52-51ca-13-1085578.html


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on April 10, 2012, 06:56:26 am
^^

Forsa poll. Having the Greens overtake the SPD (and almost the CDU too) is not sexy enough anymore, so the emergence of the Pirates creates new opportunities for spectacular polls.

Call me when another (more serious) pollster shows that too.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: jeron on April 10, 2012, 04:03:56 pm
My Wahl-O-Mat result for Schleswig-Holstein:

Greens 55
FDP 50
SSW 46
SPD 44
Linke 42
Piraten 42
CDU 37


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on April 11, 2012, 01:26:01 pm
My result for the wahl-o-mat for Schleswig-Holstein:

LINKE 80
SPD 70
Piraten 67
SSW 62
Greens 59
NPD 45
FDP 42
CDU 32

This ist the worst result for the Greens ever, since i made the Wahl-o-mat. Maybe I should change my avatar into red ;-)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on April 12, 2012, 05:11:03 pm
Schleswig-Holstein poll (Infratest dimap, 04/12)

CDU 32%
SPD 32%
Greens 12%
Pirates 11%
SSW 4%
FDP 4%
Left 3%

Pirate surge prevents SPD/Green majority. Looks like a Grand coalition to me.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on April 12, 2012, 05:51:36 pm
Even on these numbers - an SPD/Green/SSW coalition could be formed - and still avoid having to work with those yucky Christian Democrats


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on April 12, 2012, 07:31:46 pm
The Pirates really are an absolute disease.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on April 12, 2012, 07:37:59 pm
The Pirates really are an absolute disease.

QFT.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on April 13, 2012, 04:01:44 am
The Pirates really are an absolute disease.

QFT.

I'm rather enjoying them, Antonio ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on April 13, 2012, 04:20:19 am
Schleswig-Holstein poll (Infratest dimap, 04/12)

CDU 32%
SPD 32%
Greens 12%
Pirates 11%
SSW 4%
FDP 4%
Left 3%

Pirate surge prevents SPD/Green majority. Looks like a Grand coalition to me.

I'm really hoping for a SPD/Green/SSW coalition or minority government at this point. Anything but a grand coalition.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: LastVoter on April 13, 2012, 04:26:47 am
The Pirates really are an absolute disease.
Do they refuse to work with left-wingers?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on April 13, 2012, 04:36:58 am
The Pirates really are an absolute disease.
Do they refuse to work with left-wingers?

For the time being, "left-wingers" are probably refusing to work with them.

The SPD likes to play it safe. To enter a coalition with a newly formed party who is still trying to find positions on a lot of issues and hence is undergoing constant changes means taking a risk. On the other hand, entering a coalition with the CDU isn't much risky at all.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on April 13, 2012, 06:29:13 am
The Pirates really are an absolute disease.
Do they refuse to work with left-wingers?

For the time being, "left-wingers" are probably refusing to work with them.

The SPD likes to play it safe. To enter a coalition with a newly formed party who is still trying to find positions on a lot of issues and hence is undergoing constant changes means taking a risk. On the other hand, entering a coalition with the CDU isn't much risky at all.
Except the risk it poses to their soul as a social democratic party.  Oh well, they seem to have lost that years ago.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 13, 2012, 09:01:47 am
If I were a professional politician (God forbid) I wouldn't want to work with that kind of outfit either. A reluctance to work with Obvious Protest Party Is Obvious is not really something to criticise politicians for. But a reluctance to consider that there might be a reason (or even reasons) for such a hilarious blatant protest party to be polling at around a tenth of the electorate, well that would be a slightly different matter.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 13, 2012, 12:04:33 pm
The SPD is hard at work abolishing itself. The Greens and the Left are hard at work not filling the gap. The rightwing government is ideological and incompetent.
Be glad Pirate supporters aren't just staying at home.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on April 14, 2012, 11:00:23 am
Northrhine-Westphalia (INFO GmbH, 04/14)

SPD 40%
CDU 29%
Pirates 11%
Greens 10%
FDP 3%
Left 3%

Pirate-mentum continues, FDP's Lindner-mentum starts to fade, SPD/Greens still have a majority thanks to the SPD's Kraft-mentum. ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on April 14, 2012, 11:04:40 am
Northrhine-Westphalia (INFO GmbH, 04/14)

SPD 40%
CDU 29%
Pirates 11%
Greens 10%
FDP 3%
Left 3%

Pirate-mentum continues, FDP's Lindner-mentum starts to fade, SPD/Greens still have a majority thanks to the SPD's Kraft-mentum. ;)

Or you can write just: "SPD/Greens still have a majority thanks to the SPD's Kraft"

Because Kraft means the person and the power ... ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on April 14, 2012, 12:01:43 pm
That has the potential to be a deeply hilarious election.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on April 14, 2012, 12:02:13 pm
I guess I would vote for pretty much any party that has a chance of just barely going over the 5% mark in NRW. Even if that means Linke. That's the only possible way to prevent Red-Green from happening, and even then it's almost impossible.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 14, 2012, 01:32:12 pm
Is the FDP still starring into the abyss ;D?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: jeron on April 22, 2012, 05:17:02 am
Is the FDP still starring into the abyss ;D?

Yes. In the latest poll by FGW for NRW they are at 4%.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on April 27, 2012, 03:56:08 am
A couple of new polls:

Federal elections:

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 29%
Greens: 14%
FDP: 3%
Left: 6%
Pirates: 9%
Others: 4%

No clear majority. The next grand coalition is looming.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

NRW:

CDU: 32%
SPD: 38%
Greens: 10%
FDP: 5%
Left: 4%
Pirates: 9%
Others: ?

A slight majority for Red-Green, but the FDP might get in.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm

SH

CDU: 31%
SPD: 31%
Greens: 12,5%
FDP: 7%
Left: 2,5%
Pirates: 9%
SSW: 4%
Others: 3%

VERY slight majority for SPD-Greens-SSW (47,5) compared to CDU-FDP-Pirates (47)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/schleswig-holstein.htm


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on April 27, 2012, 06:54:24 am
What's going on with FDP ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Insula Dei on April 27, 2012, 07:32:51 am
What's going on with FDP ?

They've been down so long it must have started to look like up to their potential voters.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on April 29, 2012, 12:02:15 pm
My NRW Wahlomat results:

96/112 Family Party
92/112 Animal Rights Party
90/112 ÖDP
90/112 The Party
87/112 Left
86/112 Free Voters
84/112 Greens
83/112 BIG
80/112 SPD
79/112 Pirates
76/112 FBI
64/112 NPD
56/112 pro NRW
51/112 FDP
50/112 CDU
44/112 AUF
43/112 Party of Reason

http://www1.wahl-o-mat.de/nrw2012/main_app.php


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on April 29, 2012, 12:54:23 pm
Ma NRW-Wahlomat result

SPD     77/94
LEFT    77/94
Green  70/94
Piraten 64/94
Free Voters  56/94
FDP     45/94
CDU    45/94
NPD    39/94


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on April 30, 2012, 03:50:31 am
Die Linke 71/94
Freie Waehler 68/94
SPD 67/94
B '90/Die Gruenen 65/94
Piraten 58/94
NPD 47/94
FDP 46/94
CDU 42/94

Huh.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on April 30, 2012, 05:08:34 am
New SH poll by Infratest dimap:

 32% SPD
 30% CDU
 13% Greens
   9% Pirates
   6% FDP
4.5% SSW
2.5% Left
   3% Others

FDP-surge !!!


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on April 30, 2012, 10:00:36 am
In a case like S-H where its very touch and go as to whether the math will be there or not for an SPD/Green/SSW government and if that does work it may that a Grand Coalition is the only possible government - suddenly it becomes critical which party is the largest since it would supply the Premier....if the polls show a near toss-up between the SPD and CDU for biggest party - could you start to have some "strategic voting" by supporters of smaller parties who might vote SPD to make sure that the SPD is the largest party and that its leader becomes premier no matter what?>


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on May 04, 2012, 02:06:22 am
In a case like S-H where its very touch and go as to whether the math will be there or not for an SPD/Green/SSW government and if that does work it may that a Grand Coalition is the only possible government - suddenly it becomes critical which party is the largest since it would supply the Premier....if the polls show a near toss-up between the SPD and CDU for biggest party - could you start to have some "strategic voting" by supporters of smaller parties who might vote SPD to make sure that the SPD is the largest party and that its leader becomes premier no matter what?>

I have the strong impression that the right-wing tends more to strategic voting. So the FDP could suffer. I don't believe that the Pirate voters would vote strategically.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on May 04, 2012, 02:11:15 am
A new poll for SH by GMS:

CDU: 32%
SPD: 33%
Greens: 12%
FDP: 6%
Left: 2%
Pirates: 8%
SSW: 4%
Others: 3%

A majority for SPD/Greens/SSW with 49% compared to 46% for CDU/FDP/Pirates.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/schleswig-holstein.htm

And another one for Berlin by Forsa:

CDU: 23%
SPD: 28%
Greens: 16%
FDP: ?
Left: 10%
Pirates: 15%
Others: 8%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/berlin.htm


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on May 04, 2012, 02:32:05 am
And a number of new polls for NRW:

PollsterCDUSPDGreensFDPLeftPiratesOthers
Forsa 2.5. 32%37%10%5%3%10%3%
YouGov 3.5.31%36%11%5%4%10%?
Infratest 3.5.30%38,5%11%6%4%7,5%3%
FGW 4.5.31%38%11%6%3%8%3%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm

The latest polls show a stabilizing majority for Red-Green.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 04, 2012, 03:17:54 am
Stabilizing majority? They may gez it, but I'd be rather worried if I were them.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on May 04, 2012, 04:18:54 am
Stabilizing majority? They may gez it, but I'd be rather worried if I were them.

Why is that?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 11:07:09 am
ARD Exit Poll for SH:

30.5 CDU
29.5 SPD
14.0 Greens
  8.5 FDP
  8.0 Pirates
  4.5 SSW
  2.5 Left
  2.5 Others


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 11:08:41 am
ZDF Exit Poll:

(http://wahltool.zdf.de/2012-05-06-LT-DE-SH/_widget/html/widgetrelaunch-Ergebnis-SH2012-20120506180000.png)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on May 06, 2012, 11:09:14 am
Schleswig-Holstein

ZDF 18:00

CDU 30,5
SPD 30,5
Greens 13,0
FDP  8,5
Piraten  8,5
SSW  4,5


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 11:09:52 am
Meh, FDP (overpolling !)

:P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 06, 2012, 11:12:46 am
Interesting. Kubicki should never be underestimated :)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on May 06, 2012, 11:16:16 am
Interesting. Kubicki should never be underestimated :)

Kubicki is a real fighter, but he made a campaign against the federal FDP.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 06, 2012, 11:19:36 am
Interesting. Kubicki should never be underestimated :)

Kubicki is a real fighter, but he made a campaign against the federal FDP.

Sure, and that's the only way to survive. ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 11:57:46 am
30.5+13.0+4.5=48.0

30.5+8.5+8.0=47.0

Very close, but does anyone really believe the FDP is going to go up from here? Personally I'd be already amazed at them actually coming in at 8.5. (Dismayed perhaps, but amazed and somewhat satisfied the Pirates didn't come in 4rd.)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hash on May 06, 2012, 12:05:42 pm
What on earth did the FDP do to be able to win such a good result?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 12:05:42 pm
(http://wahltool.zdf.de/2012-05-06-LT-DE-SH/_widget/html/widgetrelaunch-Ergebnis-SH2012-20120506190147.png)

Seats:

22 SPD
10 Greens
  3 SSW

22 CDU
  6 FDP
  6 Pirates

The "Danish Traffic Light" leads Black-Yellow by 35-34 seats.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Insula Dei on May 06, 2012, 12:09:11 pm
If the Pirates cause that 1 seat to flip that's one more joke that isn't funny anymore.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 12:12:18 pm
What on earth did the FDP do to be able to win such a good result?

They have a good frontrunner with Kubicki.

Kubicki has a 54% approval rating in the ARD exit poll, compared to 18% for the guy who heads the federal FDP (what was his name ? Roessler ?) ...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on May 06, 2012, 12:13:31 pm
What on earth did the FDP do to be able to win such a good result?

Wolfgang Kubicki, the leader of the S-H FDP, is very popular and in an poll 66% of the voters of the FDP said that the vote the FDP only because him.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 06, 2012, 12:25:39 pm
For the past ten years, Wolfgang Kubicki has said in every interview that most of what the FDP federal leadership does is total bullsh**t. Hence his high credibility.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 12:34:03 pm
For the past ten years, Wolfgang Kubicki has said in every interview that most of what the FDP federal leadership does is total bullsh**t. Hence his high credibility.

Other than saying that the federal FDP leadership is total bullsh*t, are there any differences in the state FDP and federal FDP when it comes to policy ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 12:37:45 pm
Latest ARD projection:

(http://wahlarchiv.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2012-05-06-LT-DE-SH/charts/inc-topresult/chart_1845871.png)

Latest ZDF projection:

(http://wahltool.zdf.de/2012-05-06-LT-DE-SH/_widget/html/widgetrelaunch-Ergebnis-SH2012-20120506192246.png)

No change when it comes to seats.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 06, 2012, 12:40:16 pm
A SPD-led coalition with the Greens and the SSW would probably be the best for the state and also what voters want, because SPD-frontrunner Albig leads the CDU-guy in the direct vote for Governor by almost 2:1 in the Exit Poll.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 12:42:29 pm
For the past ten years, Wolfgang Kubicki has said in every interview that most of what the FDP federal leadership does is total bullsh**t. Hence his high credibility.

Other than saying that the federal FDP leadership is total bullsh*t, are there any differences in the state FDP and federal FDP when it comes to policy ?
Wolfgang Kubicki is a complete and very competent media whore and believes whatever you believe, baby.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 01:39:14 pm
Contrary to initial exits, Pirates have probably beaten the FDP.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 01:51:37 pm
SSW won Harrislee! :D

(http://img.fotocommunity.com/photos/8815804.jpg)

SSW 26.8 (+2.0)
SPD 25.6 (+3.8)
CDU 24.6 (-0.4)
Greens 9.4 (+1.3)
FDP 6.1 (-5.8)
Pirates 4.8 (+3.7)
Left 1.4 (-3.7)

(Harrislee is squeezed in between Flensburg and the Danish border, and frankly I guess the minors' results are suppressed by the SSW alternative. It's biggish by SlH standards, 8500 registered voters.)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 02:10:27 pm
First constituency result: Neumünster.

list vote:
SPD 33.9 (+4.7)
CDU 29.2 (-1.4)
Greens 11.2 (+0.5)
Pirates 8.4 (+6.5)
FDP 7.4 (-6.6)
SSW 3.8 (+0.8)
Left 2.6 (-3.8)

direct vote: SPD gain, 39.6-38.1.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 02:18:46 pm
East Holstein N
SPD 34.6 (+5.5)
CDU 33.0 (+0.6)
Greens 9.9 (+0.6)
Pirates 8.1 (+6.7)
FDP 7.9 (-7.8)
SSW 2.0 (+0.3)
Left 2.0 (-3.4)
Direct: SPD gain by 242 votes (0.5%).


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 02:22:54 pm
Stormarn N
CDU 31.8 (-0.5)
SPD 29.2 (+4.7)
Greens 15.2 (+1.6)
Pirates 8.8 (+7.0)
FDP 8.1 (-8.2)
SSW 2.2 (+0.2)
Left 2.0 (-4.3)

CDU hold direct.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 02:30:00 pm
Link to the results?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 02:33:14 pm
http://www.landtagswahl-sh.de/wahlen.php?site=left/status_karte&wahl=23

I was just going to claim that no one besides me seems to give a flying chutiya. Three more results in, two safe SPD seats in Kiel and funny ole Flensburg (another SPD gain, with 18.4% SSW in the list vote.)

Flensburg Rural CDU hold.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Jens on May 06, 2012, 02:39:31 pm
http://www.landtagswahl-sh.de/wahlen.php?site=left/status_karte&wahl=23

I was just going to claim that no one besides me seems to give a flying chutiya. Three more results in, two safe SPD seats in Kiel and funny ole Flensburg (another SPD gain, with 18.4% SSW in the list vote.)
I care - and am most certainly following the results :)
And: Go SSW :D


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 06, 2012, 02:44:47 pm
SPD gain Elmshorn, CDU hold Stormarn C.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ingemann on May 06, 2012, 03:05:40 pm
http://www.landtagswahl-sh.de/wahlen.php?site=left/status_karte&wahl=23

I was just going to claim that no one besides me seems to give a flying chutiya. Three more results in, two safe SPD seats in Kiel and funny ole Flensburg (another SPD gain, with 18.4% SSW in the list vote.)

Flensburg Rural CDU hold.

I do care, I must admit I'm surprised over the good result in Neumünster for SSW , as it lies outside the both the Danish and Frisian minorities traditional areas. Is it a protest votes against the CDU campaign, or is there aonther reason for their good result?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 04:00:32 pm
(http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d159/meekermariner/iEIPj9CsFIh8.jpg)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Meeker on May 06, 2012, 09:29:51 pm
Final seat count is

CDU: 22
SPD: 22
Greens: 10
FDP: 6
Pirates: 6
SSW: 3

So SPD/Greens/SSW gets to 35


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 07, 2012, 02:46:55 pm
Fun fact: CDU won 22 direct seats, SPD 13. No overhang seats - and the CDU candidate for state pm Jost de Jager has not been elected to parliament.

And yeah, they want to try the "Danish Traffic Light".


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 07, 2012, 02:49:10 pm
Lol, 1st on the list and no seat in parliament :)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 09, 2012, 03:00:12 am
Kurt Beck, the premier of Germany’s Rhineland-Palatinate regional state, plans to step down this month, Tagesspiegel reported, without saying where it obtained the information.

Beck, a member of the Social Democratic Party, is likely to propose Roger Lewentz, the state’s interior minister, as his successor, the newspaper said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-09/rhineland-palatinate-premier-to-step-down-tagesspiegel-reports.html


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 09, 2012, 03:03:52 am
I'll actually miss the guy. Surprising.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 09, 2012, 03:06:14 am
I'll actually miss the guy. Surprising.

Maybe he's planning for 2013 ...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 09, 2012, 03:07:36 am
I'll actually miss the guy. Surprising.

Maybe he's planning for 2013 ...

So weit gehen meine Sympathien dann doch nicht... ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Jens on May 09, 2012, 06:01:00 am
Fun fact: CDU won 22 direct seats, SPD 13. No overhang seats - and the CDU candidate for state pm Jost de Jager has not been elected to parliament.

And yeah, they want to try the "Danish Traffic Light".
Is it correctly understood that The Pirate Party is willing to support a Danish Traffic Light coalition from outside the cabinet? So that one or more silly SPD members cannot do the same trick as 2005.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 09, 2012, 06:07:09 am
I haven't heard anything from the Pirates except that they aren't interested in being part of any government.

I imagine, though, that they'll often be voting with the new government.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on May 09, 2012, 06:40:29 am
As I read in the Taz from Monday or yesterday, some Pirate parliament members think of voting for Albig if they "like the coalition treaty".
Of course, they like "Schleswig Holstein traffic light" more than an "grand coalition".
I think, they, at least some, will vote with them on occasion


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 09, 2012, 07:42:31 am
Fun fact: CDU won 22 direct seats, SPD 13. No overhang seats - and the CDU candidate for state pm Jost de Jager has not been elected to parliament.

And yeah, they want to try the "Danish Traffic Light".
Is it correctly understood that The Pirate Party is willing to support a Danish Traffic Light coalition from outside the cabinet? So that one or more silly SPD members cannot do the same trick as 2005.

And now they are making demands! If you understand German (I'm guessing you do. Danes are language geniuses :)) :


Quote
Die Piraten wollen den Sozialdemokraten Torsten Albig bei einer Wahl zum neuen schleswig-holsteinischen Ministerpräsidenten nur unter bestimmten Bedingungen unterstützen. Eine Koalition von SPD, Grünen und SSW müsse unter anderem die Vorratsdatenspeicherung im Bundesrat ablehnen, für mehr Transparenz in Politik und Verwaltung sorgen und das Wahlalter auf 16 Jahre senken, teilte die Partei mit - einen Tag vor Beginn der Sondierungsgespräche für die "Dänen-Ampel".
"Falls die Abgeordneten von SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen und SSW den Ministerpräsidentenkandidaten aus ihren Reihen wie 2005 nicht geschlossen unterstützen, könnte der Wahlausgang von den Stimmen der Piraten abhängen", sagte der neu gewählte Abgeordnete Patrick Breyer.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 10, 2012, 03:31:03 am
The CDU's prime ministerial candidate for NRW, Norbert Röttgen, has lost his cool and started to turn into a Joe Biden gaffe machine. The CDU's campaign is desintegrating and Merkel has probably checked it off as a loss already.

Oh, well, here's the latest poll (YouGov, 05/09)
SPD 37%
CDU 30%
Greens 12%
Pirates 8.5%
FDP 6%
Left 3.5%


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 11, 2012, 10:40:35 am
Maybe Röttgen is trying to reanimate the FDP?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 11, 2012, 12:12:49 pm
1%.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RodPresident on May 11, 2012, 03:35:57 pm
Is Hannelore Kraft rumored as SPD Kanzlerin-Candidate in 2013?
About Beck resignation, I think that he can be a good Kanzer candidate for SPD. In 2009, he didn't tried because he knew that he would lose to Merkel.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 11, 2012, 08:47:38 pm
Kurt Beck won't be chancellor-candidate, ever. In 2009, he didn't run because he had been toppled as party chairman the year before. (Also, he isn't resigning yet since he already denied those rumours.)

Regarding Hannelore Kraft: 2013 is too early, because it will be Steinmeier's (again), Steinbrück's or Gabriel's turn then. 2017 wouldn't be too far-fetched though.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 11, 2012, 09:15:57 pm
Kurt Beck won't be chancellor-candidate, ever. In 2009 he didn't run because he had been toppled as party chairman the year before. (Also, he isn't resigning yet since he already denied those rumours.)

Regarding Hannelore Kraft: 2013 is too early, because it will be Steinmeier's (again), Steinbrück's or Gabriel's turn then. 2017 wouldn't be too far-fetched though.
Damnit, Steinmeier tried and failed once, it should be pretty clear that it oughta be someone else.  And not that Schroderite Steinbruck!  Way to alienate the SPD base even more. Gabriel is all right, but is there at least a chance of it?  And is she considered a Schroderite or more of a left-winger?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 11, 2012, 09:37:16 pm
Well, there's always a *chance*. It's just below 50%. (Definitely below 20% too.)

Not really a left-winger per se, although certainly more left-wing than Schröder. ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: True Federalist on May 11, 2012, 10:28:58 pm
Fun fact: CDU won 22 direct seats, SPD 13. No overhang seats - and the CDU candidate for state pm Jost de Jager has not been elected to parliament.

And yeah, they want to try the "Danish Traffic Light".

Danish Traffic Light?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 11, 2012, 11:03:39 pm
Fun fact: CDU won 22 direct seats, SPD 13. No overhang seats - and the CDU candidate for state pm Jost de Jager has not been elected to parliament.

And yeah, they want to try the "Danish Traffic Light".

Danish Traffic Light?

SPD (Red) + SSW (Yellow) + Greens


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 12, 2012, 04:21:26 am
^^

The SSW's colour is blue, actually. So it's a Red-Blue-Green traffic light. ;)

Sometimes they start to refer to any coalition which consists of three parties as "traffic light"... which doesn't really makes sense, but that's the way it is.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 12, 2012, 04:40:45 am
I liked it when they called "Jamaica" the "Schwampel".


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 12, 2012, 09:53:14 am
Final NRW poll (INFO GmbH, 11/05)

SPD 38%
CDU 33%
Greens 11%
Pirates 8%
FDP 5%
Left 4%

As with any other NRW poll, it was conducted prior to Norbert Röttgen's "In my opinion I should in fact become prime minister. Regrettebly, the CDU doesn't decide this, but the voters do."

So the CDU could still end up with less than 30% after all. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 12, 2012, 11:30:20 am
Prediction:

37.0% SPD
31.0% CDU
11.5% Greens
  7.5% Pirates
  5.5% FDP
  4.0% Left
  1.0% Pro NRW
  2.5% Others

48.5-44.0 majority for SPD-Greens.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 12, 2012, 12:07:11 pm
Random fact: Northrhine-Westphalia covers about the same area as Maryland, but has a population comparable to that of Florida. As such, NRW has a higher population density than any state in the U.S.

(Population-wise it's also larger than Austria and Switzerland combined.)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on May 13, 2012, 01:18:32 am
My prediction for today:

Currywurst 38%
CDU  30%
Greens  12%
Pirates  8%
FDP  5.01%
Left  3,5%

A majority for Red-Green and the FDP can say thank you to the CDU and Mr. Röttgähn ;D


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2012, 03:05:23 am
election.de projection of direct seats:

(http://www.election.de/img/maps/nw12p_120512.gif)

In 2010, election.de got 116 of 128 seats correct with their prediction.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 13, 2012, 04:13:56 am
Depending on turnout...but I wouldn't be all that surprised to see the CDU down to 29% or so.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on May 13, 2012, 11:00:48 am
Exit polls for NRW (ARD 18:00)

SPD  39
CDU  26
Greens  12
FDP  8,5
Pirates  7,5
Left  2,5


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 13, 2012, 11:02:30 am
CDU  26
FDP  8,5
Lol.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on May 13, 2012, 11:03:44 am
Exit polls for NRW (ZDF 18:00)

SPD  38
CDU  25,5
Greens  12
FDP  8,5
Pirates  8
Left  3


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 13, 2012, 11:05:47 am
The FDP actually gaining seats somewhere!?!?!?!

What is this madness?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on May 13, 2012, 11:08:14 am
It is a very god result for the SPD und a disaster for the CDU (the worst result ever in NRW)

The greens have a good, but not a exellent result. In the FDP is the chairman of NRW , Lindner, the strong man now.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on May 13, 2012, 11:12:01 am
The FDP actually gaining seats somewhere!?!?!?!

What is this madness?

Some disappointed CDU voters voted this time FDP and their leader Lindner makes an Anti-Federal-FDP campaign.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 13, 2012, 11:13:38 am
The FDP actually gaining seats somewhere!?!?!?!

What is this madness?

Somme disappointed CDU voters voted this time FDP and their leader Lindner makes an Anti-Federal-FDP campaign.

Yeah it's rather clear that there was a strong last minute movement from CDU to FDP, likely because of the idiot Röttgen.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 13, 2012, 11:30:50 am
Hahahaha


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 13, 2012, 11:58:10 am
I just read "Röttgen resigns" somewhere and thought he'd resigned from the federal cabinet. But no, he just resigned as state CDU chair.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2012, 12:00:04 pm
Just came back from a visit.

So, the 2 Red-Green Schuldenmuttis got re-elected in a landslide ?

FUCK YEAH !

:)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 13, 2012, 12:02:18 pm
Wasn't aware you were that interested in NRW, Tender.., :)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2012, 12:05:36 pm
Wasn't aware you were that interested in NRW, Tender.., :)

Sure, where else would you find Red-Green coalitions in states with 18 Million people ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2012, 12:08:02 pm
BTW, what's up with that Currywurst poster from the SPD ? Is that a real campaign poster or a joke poster ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2012, 12:09:35 pm
New ARD projection:

(http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotechart422~_v-grossgalerie16x9.jpg)

New ZDF projection:

(http://wahltool.zdf.de/2012-05-13-LT-DE-NW/_widget/html/widgetrelaunch-Ergebnis-NRW2012-20120513190253.png)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 13, 2012, 12:10:44 pm
It's real.

http://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/nrw-wahl/wahlkampf-in-nrw-currywurst-ist-spd_aid_739606.html
http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/nrw-wahl-2012/currywurst-ist-spd-das-wahlkampfplakat-und-seine-macher/6526804.html

Heh. This is still der Doris ihrem Mann seine Partei, after all.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2012, 12:11:27 pm
Changes compared with the 2010 election:

(http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotechart424~_v-grossgalerie16x9.jpg)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2012, 12:14:20 pm
The direct vote for Prime Minister numbers are just brutal:

(http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotechart462~_v-grossgalerie16x9.jpg)

(http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotechart464~_v-grossgalerie16x9.jpg)

(http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotechart466~_v-grossgalerie16x9.jpg)

(http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotechart458~_v-grossgalerie16x9.jpg)

(http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotechart482~_v-grossgalerie16x9.jpg)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2012, 12:17:57 pm
BTW: Who will likely follow Röttgen now as CDU boss ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2012, 12:20:12 pm
From the ZDF Exit Poll:

"Who is closer to the people ?"

65% Kraft
  3% Röttgen
21% No difference

:)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2012, 12:22:33 pm
Women voted:

40 SPD
26 CDU
14 Greens
  8 FDP
  6 Pirates
  3 Left

Men voted:

36 SPD
25 CDU 
11 Pirates
11 Greens
  9 FDP
  4 Left


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Beet on May 13, 2012, 12:38:21 pm
It looks like Germans aren't too thrilled with austerity either.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: You kip if you want to... on May 13, 2012, 01:03:06 pm
It looks like Germans aren't too thrilled with austerity either.

I wish.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_German_federal_election


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: TheParliamentarian on May 13, 2012, 01:06:14 pm
How is the Pro-NRW doing?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 13, 2012, 01:07:06 pm
First constituency result in - Olpe. Rural, Catholic Sauerland.

turnout 60.0 (-0.4)
CDU 43.1 (-8.0)
SPD 30.9 (+5.3)
FDP 7.7 (+0.9)
Greens 6.7 (-0.7)
Pirates 6.6 (+5.6)
Left 1.6 (-2.2)
pro NRW are strongest "other" at 1.0 (-0.2). Needless to say CDU held the direct seat.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2012, 01:08:46 pm
How is the Pro-NRW doing?

Negligible.

At a street fight recently they only managed to get 15 of their people to beat up 800 Salafists.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 13, 2012, 01:13:42 pm
Soest II (ie Lippstadt)

turnout 58.3 (+0.7)
SPD 39.1 (+5.9)
CDU 30.5 (-7.7)
FDP 8.9 (+0.2)
Greens 8.7 (-1.1)
Pirates 7.3 (+5.9)
Left 2.2 (-2.7)

SPD gain direct seat.

Interesting place. Smallish town with slight traces of a boboish studenty vibe, surrounded by Catholic countryside. The western half of Soest district has a few ancestrally protestant corners, and parts of its countryside are uglily suburbanifying (but Soest itself is also a nice, if touristy in a lowkey way, town).


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2012, 01:14:09 pm
How is the Pro-NRW doing?

Negligible.

At a street fight recently they only managed to get 15 of their people to beat up 800 Salafists.

You probably have no clue what I'm talking about, so:

Quote
Extremists vs. Extremists: Salafists and Right-Wing Populists Battle in Bonn

Germany's right-wing populists are fond of insulting Islam in order to attract attention. On Saturday, violence prone Salafists took the bait, resulting in a riot that left 29 police injured. Despite the clash, however, the anti-Islam party can continue to display their anti-Islam caricatures, a court has decided.

It was clear from the start that the tiny, right-wing populist group Pro-NRW would stop at nothing to attract attention in the run-up to state elections in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia this Sunday. With Salafists in the state now reacting violently to Pro-NRW's inflammatory parading of Muhammad caricatures in front of Muslim establishments, the splinter party appears to have gotten its wish.

On Saturday, violence flared anew when Salafists attacked police protecting a Pro-NRW demonstration in front of a Saudi Arabian school in Bonn. Twenty-nine officers were wounded, two of them having been stabbed, and more than 100 people were arrested. On Monday, a 25-year-old man was arrested and charged with attempted murder in the knife attacks.

Ralf Jäger, interior minister for the state, promised that there would be "severe consequences," adding that he would "join the federal government in exploring all legal possibilities for countering these extremists." The police president in Bonn, Ursula Brohl-Sowa, spoke of an "explosion of violence like we haven't seen for some time."

The Pro-NRW march in Bonn consisted of just over two dozen people, but some 500 to 600 counter-demonstrators also gathered, including, according to police estimates, some 200 Salafists who had travelled to Bonn from across the country. Several hundred police were also present to keep the two groups separated.

Kolbe said the march was peaceful until right-wing populists began showing their anti-Islam caricatures, including one by Kurt Westergaard, the Danish cartoonist who created one of the Muhammad drawings which set off global unrest in 2006. One pro-NRW member, Kolbe told SPIEGEL ONLINE, climbed onto the shoulders of a comrade in order to hold the placard above a police vehicle positioned so as to block the view. "The Pro-NRW people very deliberately provoked," Kolbe said.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-right-wing-populists-provoke-salafist-violence-in-bonn-a-831810.html


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: TheParliamentarian on May 13, 2012, 01:17:30 pm
actually i do, i have a blog on the far right in europe and that is why i am here and asking about the pro-nrw...  id also like to know if how the NPD are doing...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 13, 2012, 01:19:49 pm
The stabber (who has confessed. And is a Hessian. ;D ) fits the cliche bill of such people quite well. German born Turkish citizen; a hardened hooligan with an arm's length criminal record from his teens who's been out of trouble the past five years thanks to finding Allah. Yet the conversion only goes so far; these people have a grievance and an aggressive demeanor (and are very much a post-2001 phenomenon. Or rather post-post-2001-islamophobia phenomenon.)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2012, 01:20:18 pm
actually i do, i have a blog on the far right in europe and that is why i am here and asking about the pro-nrw...  id also like to know if how the NPD are doing...

For results, check this:

http://karten.wahlergebnisse.nrw.de/WahlClient


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 13, 2012, 01:21:17 pm
actually i do, i have a blog on the far right in europe and that is why i am here and asking about the pro-nrw...  id also like to know if how the NPD are doing...
In both the constituencies wholly in, pro NRW and NPD are the two strongest "others", but not by much and not doing at all well or any better than last time. They are not doing well enough to get any sort of mainstream media attention, so official results are all I have.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2012, 01:24:42 pm
actually i do, i have a blog on the far right in europe and that is why i am here and asking about the pro-nrw...  id also like to know if how the NPD are doing...
In both the constituencies wholly in, pro NRW and NPD are the two strongest "others", but not by much and not doing at all well or any better than last time. They are not doing well enough to get any sort of mainstream media attention, so official results are all I have.

Do you have any numbers for me Midas?

Just click on that link I posted.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 13, 2012, 01:26:46 pm
1.0, 0.8, 0.6. That sort of thing. (Just noticed the NPD is actually third strongest "other" in one of them, not second.)

And we have a third result in, Düsseldorf III.

SPD 32.1 (+4.6)
CDU 24.6 (-8.9)
Greens 16.4 (-1.6)
FDP 13.1 (+4.1)
Pirates 7.4 (+5.4)
Left 3.3 (-3.0)

Another SPD gain.

(pro NRW 0.9. NPD just 0.3.)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 13, 2012, 01:27:07 pm
http://www.wahlergebnisse.nrw.de/landtagswahlen/2012/aktuell/index.html


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 13, 2012, 01:29:47 pm
Results coming in fast now, and more family for me. (Höxter, CDU heartland, my grandmother's mother was from. Moers, SPD heartland near Duisburg, I have an uncle living.)

A CDU incumbent in Viersen saved by ticket-splitting voters.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on May 13, 2012, 02:43:44 pm
Where the SPD is winning, the pirates are doing better..

The SPD wins everywhere, mostly from the CDU.

The Pirates are stronger in the bigger cities, but the differences are minimal


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hash on May 13, 2012, 03:04:11 pm
Why is Stark not banned yet?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 13, 2012, 04:12:23 pm
Seriously, how bad a result is North Rhine-Westphalia for Angela Merkel moving forward into 2013? Any other major electoral tests coming up between now and the federal elections? Is it a potential sign of things to come?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 13, 2012, 04:17:25 pm
Seriously, how bad a result is North Rhine-Westphalia for Angela Merkel moving forward into 2013? Any other major electoral tests coming up between now and the federal elections? Is it a potential sign of things to come?

The CDU had a sh**tty candidate who ran sh**tty campaign. Just the opposite of the FDP, actually. In other state elections, the CDU may have better candidates.

But to answer your question: There's the Lower Saxony state election on January 20, 2013. That's all there is if you disregard the mostly insignificant Schleswig-Holstein local elections which will also be held sometime early next year.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on May 13, 2012, 04:19:41 pm
So Fast Drei Prozent is now Über Acht Prozent now ? Meh...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 13, 2012, 04:25:07 pm
Seriously, how bad a result is North Rhine-Westphalia for Angela Merkel moving forward into 2013? Any other major electoral tests coming up between now and the federal elections? Is it a potential sign of things to come?

The CDU had a sh**tty candidate who ran sh**tty campaign. Just the opposite of the FDP, actually. In other state elections, the CDU may have better candidates.

But to answer your question: There's the Lower Saxony state election on January 20, 2013. That's all there is if you disregard the mostly insignificant Schleswig-Holstein local elections which will also be held sometime early next year.

Thanks


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 13, 2012, 04:32:03 pm
Hannelore Kraft (SPD) and Christian Lindner (FDP) are considered authentic and/or likeable. Norbert Röttgen (CDU) is an epic fail as a candidate and a campaigner. Sylvia Löhrmann (Greens) was overshadowed by Kraft and reduced to the role of the sidekick.

Guess what happens when a weak challenger faces a popular incumbent?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Insula Dei on May 13, 2012, 04:43:20 pm
Thing. of. Beauty.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 13, 2012, 05:53:03 pm
This is obviously a disaster for the NRW-CDU, and even I would not have voted for them, but I think it's a rather large stretch to claim that this was in any way a rejection of the federal CDU and Merkel's policies. The CDU hasn't done too polrly in the orher elections this year, and the federal CDU is still polling at or above 2009 levels.

It's quite unfortunate that this is being discussed as Merkel's problem when in reality, she isn't at fault.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 13, 2012, 05:57:54 pm
This is really, really funny.

Anyways, Nazis are not welcome here so please fyck off, whoever you are.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 14, 2012, 03:46:42 am
This is really, really funny.

Anyways, Nazis are not welcome here so please fyck off, whoever you are.

im assuming you mean me and im not a nazis, im not even a nationalist actually i consider myself to be an anarchist.  I merely want the election results for the PRNW and NPD cause i blog about the far right.  this is all one word of course but i cant post links yet, european nationalism . blogspot . com   to prove my point.  but hey, im glad you dont like nazis \m/

You also happen to use the "Golden Dawn" logo as your picture/avatar in your blogger.com profile.

So you're a Nazi and a liar then.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on May 14, 2012, 08:01:32 am
Leave the nazi alone,nature already insulted him enough by letting him live.


Anyway,sweet results. Even Germans start to openly criticize Merkel's agenda...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 14, 2012, 08:37:57 am
Leave the nazi alone,nature already insulted him enough by letting him live.


Anyway,sweet results. Even Germans start to openly criticize Merkel's agenda...

Where are you all getting this idea that this has anything to do with Merkel's agenda. It has very little relevance in this state election. The partly leaders in NRW were the most important factor.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 14, 2012, 08:40:55 am
Leave the nazi alone,nature already insulted him enough by letting him live.


Anyway,sweet results. Even Germans start to openly criticize Merkel's agenda...

While German citizens have "openly criticized" Merkel's agenda for quite some time now (but often more in a "none of our tax money for lazy Greeks!" way), the federal government's policies played only a very minor role in the Northrhine-Westphalia election.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 14, 2012, 08:47:58 am
Where are you all getting this idea that this has anything to do with Merkel's agenda. It has very little relevance in this state election. The partly leaders in NRW were the most important factor.

Mostly foreign press, probably.

Headlines on BBC's news site currently include "State election deals blow to Germany's Merkel",  "NRW election: Merkel shaken at state poll" and "NRW election: Merkel admits 'bitter' defeat".

Who gives a f**k about trivial German state-level issue and the popularity of Hannelore Kraft (someone who's almost completely unknown outside Germany's borders), when it can be made into something much much bigger. Like Angela Merkel.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on May 14, 2012, 08:58:10 am
Hannelore seems to be by far the most popular SPD politician in Germany these days. Has there been any talk of making her the SPD candidate for Chancellor against Merkel next year??


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 14, 2012, 09:02:52 am
Hannelore seems to be by far the most popular SPD politician in Germany these days. Has there been any talk of making her the SPD candidate for Chancellor against Merkel next year??

Yes, there has been, but she has ruled it categorically out and will remain in NRW for the next 5 years - which is good.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 14, 2012, 09:12:24 am
Maps:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/wahlergebnisse-landtagswahl-nordrhein-westfalen-2012-a-829466.html

Click on "Wahlkreise" (electoral districts).

"Erststimme" means "direct vote for a district candidate", while "Zweitstimme" means "party list vote".


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 14, 2012, 11:34:36 am
The most interesting fallout from the NRW election is that Oskar Lafontaine is making a play for return to chairmanship of the Left Party now. His plans for a power-grab is meeting with resistance from the eastern state chapters of the party though.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 14, 2012, 11:40:11 am
Hannelore seems to be by far the most popular SPD politician in Germany these days. Has there been any talk of making her the SPD candidate for Chancellor against Merkel next year??

Yes, there has been, but she has ruled it categorically out and will remain in NRW for the next 5 years - which is good.

Probably. But we'll see. ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 14, 2012, 02:00:25 pm
When a member of a higher-level government runs for a lower level, and esp. if he doesn't resign his position and intends to retain it in case of defeat, the government is automatically at poll. (He also loses votes both by appearing less than committed and by not being able to criticize the government, not even in the ways other politicians of the same party do routinely. Boris Rhein suffered the exact same problems in Frankfurt.) It's just that it was the less-than-popular federal government vs the popular state government, not the federal government vs the hapless useless federal opposition.



Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ZuWo on May 15, 2012, 04:39:24 am
"Das können Sie alles senden!"

Horst Seehofer (CSU), Prime Minister of Bavaria, didn't mince his words and was surprisingly direct and sincere about the problems of the governing coalition and the defeat in NRW. He's probably not going to help the coalition, but he may have scored some points on a personal level.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CS3qyx8drQk

(only in German)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 15, 2012, 04:55:46 am
"Das können Sie alles senden!"

Horst Seehofer (CSU), Prime Minister of Bavaria, didn't mince his words and was surprisingly direct and sincere about the problems of the governing coalition and the defeat in NRW. He's probably not going to help the coalition, but he may have scored some points on a personal level.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CS3qyx8drQk

(only in German)

The interesting thing is that it wasn't part of the interview, but more of a private chat with the reporter after the interview. At the end, the reporter commented on how this talk was much more interesting than the interview itself which then led to Seehofer's: "You can air it all!"


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 15, 2012, 06:16:42 am
The most interesting fallout from the NRW election is that Oskar Lafontaine is making a play for return to chairmanship of the Left Party now. His plans for a power-grab is meeting with resistance from the eastern state chapters of the party though.
Is it possible that he and the others in die Linke who split from the SPD might leave and rejoin to help push the SPD left?  Or would it look too much like political opportunism?  Or are the scars just too deep?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on May 15, 2012, 08:16:29 am
The most interesting fallout from the NRW election is that Oskar Lafontaine is making a play for return to chairmanship of the Left Party now. His plans for a power-grab is meeting with resistance from the eastern state chapters of the party though.
Is it possible that he and the others in die Linke who split from the SPD might leave and rejoin to help push the SPD left?  Or would it look too much like political opportunism?  Or are the scars just too deep?

I know several former members of the Left who went (back) to the SPD but mostly on a local level. The problem is that in West Germany a lot of members are just crazy and in East Germany they are one of the three major parties. So the people who could go the SPD on an ideological basis are already very established and the members in West Germany are too radical to go to the SPD.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 15, 2012, 01:02:44 pm
Currently doing a map of direct seat winners (with the other stuff coming later). Anyways. Just stumbled across the result in Bonn I. LOL. That's all. LOL.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 15, 2012, 01:46:08 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/8_15_05_12_1_43_57.PNG)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ingemann on May 15, 2012, 02:02:53 pm
Why do SPD have such strong position in the north east?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 15, 2012, 02:15:56 pm
Why do SPD have such strong position in the north east?

Traditionally strong for the SPD going back since forever (during the Weimar Republic it was generally better turf for the SPD than the Ruhr), and that would have been because it was a Protestant ('rural') industrial area; the dominant industry was textiles. Protestantism in parts of that area (Lippe, anyway) is also non-Lutheran, which may have been a factor early on or something (or so someone claimed in a journal article that I half-read about two years ago while looking for something else).


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 15, 2012, 03:32:34 pm
The most interesting fallout from the NRW election is that Oskar Lafontaine is making a play for return to chairmanship of the Left Party now. His plans for a power-grab is meeting with resistance from the eastern state chapters of the party though.
Is it possible that he and the others in die Linke who split from the SPD might leave and rejoin to help push the SPD left?  Or would it look too much like political opportunism?  Or are the scars just too deep?

Doubt that the SPD would want to have him back. He "betrayed" the party once (or twice, if you count 1999) und you can't trust a traitor (although he'd probably say that the party betrayed him).

And I suppose Lafontaine wouldn't want to return to the SPD unless he becomes party chairman and/or chancellor-candidate for 2013. Not gonna happen.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ingemann on May 15, 2012, 04:24:40 pm
Why do SPD have such strong position in the north east?

Traditionally strong for the SPD going back since forever (during the Weimar Republic it was generally better turf for the SPD than the Ruhr), and that would have been because it was a Protestant ('rural') industrial area; the dominant industry was textiles. Protestantism in parts of that area (Lippe, anyway) is also non-Lutheran, which may have been a factor early on or something (or so someone claimed in a journal article that I half-read about two years ago while looking for something else).

Thanks,  I decided  to look on the historical maps, and in rural areas it seem that voting pattern follow the pre-1789 borders. The former secular principalities (which was mostly protestant) tend to vote SPD, while the former ecclessial principalities tend to vote CDU. The County of Lippe was Calvinist by the way, while Mindens and Ravensberg (the two other principalities in the corner) was was both Calvinist and Lutheran to my knowledge (as part of Brandenburg), but with a strong Lutheran dominance on the ground. 
I must admit that the fact that 140 year after the unification of Germany and almost 200 years after the complete unification of Nordrhine-Westphalen, the old religious patterns are still so important for how people vote.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 16, 2012, 10:24:40 am
Angela Merkel has fired Norbert Röttgen as minister for environment today.

How ironic, because he was too afraid to take any risks in the NRW election campaign he ultimately lost everything.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 16, 2012, 01:17:28 pm
Angela Merkel has fired Norbert Röttgen as minister for environment today.

How ironic, because he was too afraid to take any risks in the NRW election campaign he ultimately lost everything.
Hmmm, Horst?

"Ist er jetzt ein Umweltminister auf Bewährung?"
"Nein, das würde ich ihm nicht so zuordnen."

Indeed not.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on May 16, 2012, 03:15:13 pm
I'm sorry if I ask a question which has probably already been answered, but do we know which coalition will rule Schleswig-Holstein ? Is a SPD-Green-SSW coalition workable or are they stuck with another Grand Coalition ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 16, 2012, 03:16:58 pm
I'm sorry if I ask a question which has probably already been answered, but do we know which coalition will rule Schleswig-Holstein ? Is a SPD-Green-SSW coalition workable or are they stuck with another Grand Coalition ?

The former almost certainly.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on May 16, 2012, 03:35:51 pm
I'm sorry if I ask a question which has probably already been answered, but do we know which coalition will rule Schleswig-Holstein ? Is a SPD-Green-SSW coalition workable or are they stuck with another Grand Coalition ?

The former almost certainly.

Good, I guess. This will give the left 30 seats in the Bundesrat and could complicate Merkel's job a bit.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 16, 2012, 03:39:59 pm
I'm sorry if I ask a question which has probably already been answered, but do we know which coalition will rule Schleswig-Holstein ? Is a SPD-Green-SSW coalition workable or are they stuck with another Grand Coalition ?

The former almost certainly.

Good, I guess. This will give the left 30 seats in the Bundesrat and could complicate Merkel's job a bit.

Hate to disappoint you, but the SPD opposition on "European" topics is rather laughable :)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on May 16, 2012, 03:56:06 pm
I'm sorry if I ask a question which has probably already been answered, but do we know which coalition will rule Schleswig-Holstein ? Is a SPD-Green-SSW coalition workable or are they stuck with another Grand Coalition ?

The former almost certainly.

Good, I guess. This will give the left 30 seats in the Bundesrat and could complicate Merkel's job a bit.

Hate to disappoint you, but the SPD opposition on "European" topics is rather laughable :)

From what I've seen, I wouldn't be surprised if French coverage of German politics were awful and useless... But I recall to hear several times that the SPD was threatening to block ratification of the treaty if they didn't get measures for growth ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 16, 2012, 04:50:23 pm
From what I know they've made "demands" but stopped short of saying they would actually block if they didn't get what they wanted. Don't quote me on this though, I've not followed the SPD circus much recently. I doubt the SPD will do anything radical, though, they know perfectly well the vast majority of voters support Merkel's EU policies.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on May 16, 2012, 06:20:50 pm
What sort of coalition was finally formed in Saarland?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RodPresident on May 16, 2012, 06:40:46 pm
Great Coalition, as usual...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 16, 2012, 11:58:31 pm
Lower Saxony seems to be next for the takeover:

(http://www.ndr.de/infografik/crchart1007_v-contentgross.jpg)

(http://www.ndr.de/infografik/crchart1015_v-contentgross.jpg)

(http://www.ndr.de/infografik/crchart1017_v-contentgross.jpg)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: The Mikado on May 17, 2012, 01:46:25 am
Possibly stupid question, but if the next election offered a possible majority for CDU-Pirates, would that be politically viable or something anyone relevant would even consider trying?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 17, 2012, 01:56:57 am
Possibly stupid question, but if the next election offered a possible majority for CDU-Pirates, would that be politically viable or something anyone relevant would even consider trying?

CDU + Pirates =

(http://ivarfjeld.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/atomic-explosion-4.jpg?w=450&h=359)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on May 17, 2012, 02:18:14 am
Lower Saxony seems to be next for the takeover:

(http://www.ndr.de/infografik/crchart1007_v-contentgross.jpg)

(http://www.ndr.de/infografik/crchart1015_v-contentgross.jpg)

(http://www.ndr.de/infografik/crchart1017_v-contentgross.jpg)

When does it vote ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: freek on May 17, 2012, 03:34:28 am

When does it vote ?
January 20, 2013


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on May 17, 2012, 03:37:52 am

Meh... :(


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 17, 2012, 03:38:48 am
The last graph is entertaining.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 17, 2012, 04:40:54 am
Possibly stupid question, but if the next election offered a possible majority for CDU-Pirates, would that be politically viable or something anyone relevant would even consider trying?

If they really pushed for it, the Pirate Party would break apart because of this. Hence CDU and Pirates wouldn't have a majority anymore anyway.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on May 17, 2012, 05:55:18 am
From what I know they've made "demands" but stopped short of saying they would actually block if they didn't get what they wanted. Don't quote me on this though, I've not followed the SPD circus much recently. I doubt the SPD will do anything radical, though, they know perfectly well the vast majority of voters support Merkel's EU policies.

According to an italian newspaper Hollande, Ayrault and Gabriel have had discussions in order to adopt a common agenda regarding European growth policy and a modification of the treaty. I don't know if the SPD will go far enough, but something can certainly change.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 17, 2012, 10:18:24 pm
Possibly stupid question, but if the next election offered a possible majority for CDU-Pirates, would that be politically viable or something anyone relevant would even consider trying?

If they really pushed for it, the Pirate Party would break apart because of this. Hence CDU and Pirates wouldn't have a majority anymore anyway.
Lol well they have definined themselves as a "social liberal" party.  If they joined the CDU in a coalition, it seems like they'd soon become a slightly more eccentric and information/Internet savvy German reincarnation of the LibDems.  Lol.  But the idea of Pirates sitting in a cabinet with the hard-nosed conservatives of the CDU does sound hilarious. 

Just imagine the awkwardness of the official cabinet photo. 


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 18, 2012, 04:48:52 am
There's coming some criticism from within the CDU as well as the media on how quickly Angela Merkel has fired Norbert Röttgen. For starters, it was unprecedented that a federal minister gets dismissed because he lost a state election. Some where also surprised how easily Merkel was willing to stab Röttgen in the back, considering he had been one of her closest political allies within the CDU up until a few weeks ago.

So there's some concern that Angela Merkel turns into the Darth Vader of German politics: Everyone who fails her or is not of use to her anymore gets quickly disposed of (so far it had only happened to people who stood in her way).


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 18, 2012, 04:52:41 am
It is presumed something ugly happened behind the scenes here.
Also, I suppose Merkel is frightened and angry not only because of BRW but because of France and Greece as well. (I would love to claim she's "coming apart at the seams", but that would be wishful thinking.)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ZuWo on May 18, 2012, 04:56:52 am
I was surprised when I heard the news that Merkel fired Röttgen. I always had the impression that Merkel likes to be surrounded by rather weak ministers and party officials who don't pose any threat to her (and Röttgen was definitely weak and powerless after the NRW election), so I think it is plausible that something really bad happened between the two. Or Seehofer threatened that the CSU would leave the coalition if Röttgen remains in office, who knows. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2012, 12:37:39 pm
NRW fallout polls by ARD and ZDF (but conducted before Röttgen got kicked out):

34.0% CDU/CSU
30.0% SPD
13.0% Greens
10.0% Pirates
  5.0% Left
  4.5% FDP
  3.5% Others

Probably a Grand Coalition. And lol @ the Left.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on May 18, 2012, 12:40:09 pm
NRW fallout polls by ARD and ZDF (but conducted before Röttgen got kicked out):

34.0% CDU/CSU
30.0% SPD
13.0% Greens
10.0% Pirates
  5.0% Left
  4.5% FDP
  3.5% Others

Probably a Grand Coalition. And lol @ the Left.

Why are they polling after the election happened ? ???


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 18, 2012, 12:43:18 pm
NRW fallout polls by ARD and ZDF (but conducted before Röttgen got kicked out):

34.0% CDU/CSU
30.0% SPD
13.0% Greens
10.0% Pirates
  5.0% Left
  4.5% FDP
  3.5% Others

Probably a Grand Coalition. And lol @ the Left.

Why are they polling after the election happened ? ???

They're national polls that were done after the NRW election.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2012, 12:44:08 pm
NRW fallout polls by ARD and ZDF (but conducted before Röttgen got kicked out):

34.0% CDU/CSU
30.0% SPD
13.0% Greens
10.0% Pirates
  5.0% Left
  4.5% FDP
  3.5% Others

Probably a Grand Coalition. And lol @ the Left.

Why are they polling after the election happened ? ???

They're national polls that were done after the NRW election.

Yepp. These are 2 separate polls by ARD and ZDF and I averaged them because they are not that far apart.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2012, 12:46:52 pm
In Western Germany, the Linke has gone from 8% on Election Day 2009 to 3% now.

In Eastern Germany it went from 29% to 15% now.

Linke and Pirates have basically switched sides now, except in the East, where both are around 15% now.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 18, 2012, 12:50:17 pm
In Western Germany, the Linke has gone from 8% on Election Day 2009 to 3% now.

In Eastern Germany it went from 29% to 15% now.

Linke and Pirates have basically switched sides now, except in the East, where both are around 15% now.

Is there any Western state (i.e. real Germany ;)) that would not throw out the Left right now? Possibly Hamburg? Saarland excluded, obviously.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 18, 2012, 12:58:22 pm
In Western Germany, the Linke has gone from 8% on Election Day 2009 to 3% now.

In Eastern Germany it went from 29% to 15% now.

Linke and Pirates have basically switched sides now, except in the East, where both are around 15% now.

Is there any Western state (i.e. real Germany ;)) that would not throw out the Left right now? Possibly Hamburg? Saarland excluded, obviously.

I think they would even fail in Hamburg and Bremen right now, leaving only the Saarland.

In Bavaria, the Left isn't even included in the polls anymore ... :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Lasitten on May 18, 2012, 03:12:44 pm
In Western Germany, the Linke has gone from 8% on Election Day 2009 to 3% now.

In Eastern Germany it went from 29% to 15% now.

Linke and Pirates have basically switched sides now, except in the East, where both are around 15% now.

Is there any other explanation than the rise of Pirates to explain the downfall of Linke?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 18, 2012, 03:18:36 pm
In Western Germany, the Linke has gone from 8% on Election Day 2009 to 3% now.

In Eastern Germany it went from 29% to 15% now.

Linke and Pirates have basically switched sides now, except in the East, where both are around 15% now.

Is there any other explanation than the rise of Pirates to explain the downfall of Linke?

Several.

The fact that the grand coalition is gone. The fact that the Left has been in an internal civil war for a while. The fact that they aren't seen as credible opposition to black-yellow.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on May 19, 2012, 05:17:05 am
So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ZuWo on May 19, 2012, 07:06:33 am
So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...

I don't think left voters can complain about a lack of choice in Germany ... you have the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke, which cover the entire range of the left political spectrum (from the realistic center-left to the extreme left). On the contrary, the interesting question is whether there is a chance that a serious democratic party right of the CDU/CSU could emerge. The current CDU/CSU can't be considered right-wing, so in theory there is room for such a party on the right.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 19, 2012, 07:10:44 am
So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...

I have to agree with what ZuWo just said ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 19, 2012, 10:43:05 am
So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...

I don't think left voters can complain about a lack of choice in Germany ... you have the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke, which cover the entire range of the left political spectrum (from the realistic center-left to the extreme left). On the contrary, the interesting question is whether there is a chance that a serious democratic party right of the CDU/CSU could emerge. The current CDU/CSU can't be considered right-wing, so in theory there is room for such a party on the right.
An actual left-alternative.  The SPD is clearly a mainly centrist party, and should be seen as such until it agrees that the Agenda 2010 program was wrong, and embraces true social democracy.  And it needs to throw out those neo-liberal crooks (Steinmeier, Steinbruck, Garrelt Duin, Johannes Kahrs, and all those other Seeheimer Kreis phonies, with the possible exception of Sigmar Gabriel.)  And they also need to stop acting so eager to jump into bed with the CDU.  Then they can actually be on the left.  That's what Antonio means by "left alternative" (I think). 


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on May 19, 2012, 11:16:26 am
So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...

I have to agree with what ZuWo just said ;)

Personally, it made me roll eyes... But I guess we have to agree to disagree...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 19, 2012, 12:04:51 pm
So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...

I don't think left voters can complain about a lack of choice in Germany ... you have the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke, which cover the entire range of the left political spectrum (from the realistic center-left to the extreme left).
And the Pirates. Though note that lack of choice was not what the complaint was about. The issue is entirely with the quality of the choices.
Quote
On the contrary, the interesting question is whether there is a chance that a serious democratic party right of the CDU/CSU could emerge. The current CDU/CSU can't be considered right-wing, so in theory there is room for such a party on the right.
That's just wrong. It's understandable that people might think so, but it's wrong. Unless PvdV and such are considered "serious" and "democratic", and even then it's exceedingly iffy - the CDU esp. locally has the populist but by self-assessment respectable right pretty well covered, much better than the CDA or than the French right used to have. Better than the Tories in most parts, too, though things vary quite a bit between parts of Britain on that account.
 And where occasionally it doesn't, you get some local party led by a CDU or FDP renegade, either with no intention towards regional (let alone national) politics, or with at least one glorious fail attempt under his belt already.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: freefair on May 19, 2012, 01:48:49 pm
There should be another left wing federal party in German politics, however the Left will have to die and be replaced by a party whose heretical is fully democratic and constitutional. Maybe they should just call themselves the  Labour Party? They ought to be Populist to provide a contrast with the Greens and Pirates.
Also, I should point out the UKIP style gap between the CDU and NDP is already filled by Die Republikaner, who could be more successful.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 19, 2012, 01:56:49 pm
That party is effectively dead. Though not quite - partly because (though the REPs are themselves too disreputable to fill that gap) the NPD is that far-out.
The REPs were of course founded with the intention of being such a party, back in the 80s. Hence the name and all. Didn't help that the man who founded it was thrown out of the CSU and his state tv job because of his too obvious WaffenSS nostalgia...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 19, 2012, 05:49:23 pm
Maybe they should just call themselves the  Labour Party?

I doubt that any party in Germany would call itself just "Arbeitspartei" or "Arbeiterpartei". The former just sounds silly, despite the fact that it is the way the Israeli Labor Party is usually translated into German (it literally means "work party"). And the latter has a ring of mid-19th century nostalgia to it ("workers' party").

"Partei der Arbeit" would be another alternative translation, but it sounds just as anachronistic (and it may evoke some negative connotations, since it's also the German translation for the ruling party in North Korea).

Possibly one reason why "Labour Party" is usually not translated into German at all, provided it refers to a political party from an English-speaking country.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 20, 2012, 12:04:05 am
How about "die Partei der Democratischen Linke?"


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 20, 2012, 04:49:44 am
How about "die Partei der Democratischen Linke?"

The PDS/Left Party considered naming itself as such back in 2005, but they found out that a (very tiny) group using that name already existed.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ZuWo on May 20, 2012, 06:40:09 am
So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...

I don't think left voters can complain about a lack of choice in Germany ... you have the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke, which cover the entire range of the left political spectrum (from the realistic center-left to the extreme left).
And the Pirates. Though note that lack of choice was not what the complaint was about. The issue is entirely with the quality of the choices.
Quote
On the contrary, the interesting question is whether there is a chance that a serious democratic party right of the CDU/CSU could emerge. The current CDU/CSU can't be considered right-wing, so in theory there is room for such a party on the right.
That's just wrong. It's understandable that people might think so, but it's wrong. Unless PvdV and such are considered "serious" and "democratic", and even then it's exceedingly iffy - the CDU esp. locally has the populist but by self-assessment respectable right pretty well covered, much better than the CDA or than the French right used to have. Better than the Tories in most parts, too, though things vary quite a bit between parts of Britain on that account.
 And where occasionally it doesn't, you get some local party led by a CDU or FDP renegade, either with no intention towards regional (let alone national) politics, or with at least one glorious fail attempt under his belt already.


Well, I don't know anything about local politics in Germany, but what I was getting at was the federal CDU and my impression that it is not right-wing at all. You have a CDU-led federal government which wants more public day care centers for children, pushes for denuclearization, is very pro-European, open towards the idea of a minimum wage ... I'm not saying the CDU is left, but I would not be surprised if there was a substantial number of conservatives who are alienated by these policies of the federal CDU. And haven't there been more or less serious rumours about Friedrich Merz and his potential plan to found a new federal party right of the CDU?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on May 20, 2012, 09:03:10 am
There already is a party to the right of the CDU. It's called the FDP.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 20, 2012, 11:07:42 am
And haven't there been more or less serious rumours about Friedrich Merz and his potential plan to found a new federal party right of the CDU?

Those rumours have popped up now and then for the past ten years or so. Originally, Friedrich Merz was supposed to found it, but he has not been relevant for quite some time now. Other people frequently mentioned as wannabe right-wing party founders include Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, Wolfgang Clement (originally SPD, now much closer to the FDP), Thilo Sarrazin, Hans-Olaf Henkel, possibly even Roland Koch. So basically anyone who has been described as "right-wing" in some sense and who's not actively engaged in party politics anymore. Would George W. Bush try to obtain German citizenship it would probably lead to rumours that he plans to found a new right-wing party in Germany as well. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 20, 2012, 01:23:46 pm
A random question to Germans:
If the SPD ran on a platform of giving more money to Greece in 2013, would this type of message perhaps work?  Seems like it could unite the anti-bailout grumblers and the pro-growth camp. 

"The reason why we've had to give so many bailouts to Greece is because we've forced these austerity measures on Greece that have stifled the possibility of economic growth, which in turn makes it even harder for Greece to pay off its debt, so we've had to keep bailing them out with our tax money.  So why not give them the room to grow with more money, so that then they can actually pay down their debt rather than just avoid default and kick the can a bit further down the road, and we can finally be done with handing out bailouts?"

Would that work, or would Germans just scratch their heads?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ingemann on May 20, 2012, 01:36:46 pm
I'm sure the average German voter would love the message that they had to pay more in taxes to send to Greece, so that the Greeks can continue not paying their taxes and use several times more than they collect. I'm sure that message won't won't result in the complete collapse of SPD.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 20, 2012, 04:04:20 pm
A random question to Germans:
If the SPD ran on a platform of giving more money to Greece in 2013, would this type of message perhaps work?  Seems like it could unite the anti-bailout grumblers and the pro-growth camp.  

"The reason why we've had to give so many bailouts to Greece is because we've forced these austerity measures on Greece that have stifled the possibility of economic growth, which in turn makes it even harder for Greece to pay off its debt, so we've had to keep bailing them out with our tax money.  So why not give them the room to grow with more money, so that then they can actually pay down their debt rather than just avoid default and kick the can a bit further down the road, and we can finally be done with handing out bailouts?"

Would that work, or would Germans just scratch their heads?

^^

While this doesn't contradict the SPD's basic position on the issue, they surely would avoid phrasing it as "Germany gives more money to Greece".

The SPD has proposed a "European Growth Compact". Phrasing the narrative as "Europe provides money in order to generate growth in Europe" is the only way it may be accepted by German voters, although some may still figure out that it essentially means "Germany gives money to Greece" in the end.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 20, 2012, 04:33:48 pm
Hard to think of a worse slogan to run on than that...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 20, 2012, 05:06:39 pm
A random question to Germans:
If the SPD ran on a platform of giving more money to Greece in 2013, would this type of message perhaps work?  Seems like it could unite the anti-bailout grumblers and the pro-growth camp.  

"The reason why we've had to give so many bailouts to Greece is because we've forced these austerity measures on Greece that have stifled the possibility of economic growth, which in turn makes it even harder for Greece to pay off its debt, so we've had to keep bailing them out with our tax money.  So why not give them the room to grow with more money, so that then they can actually pay down their debt rather than just avoid default and kick the can a bit further down the road, and we can finally be done with handing out bailouts?"

Would that work, or would Germans just scratch their heads?

^^

While this doesn't contradict the SPD's basic position on the issue, they surely would avoid phrasing it as "Germany gives more money to Greece".

The SPD has proposed a "European Growth Compact". Phrasing the narrative as "Europe provides money in order to generate growth in Europe" is the only way it may be accepted by German voters, although some may still figure out that it essentially means "Germany gives money to Greece" in the end.
I know it wouldn't be that phrasing.  Just sort of a "give them room to grow and get this headache over with" type of thing. 


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 21, 2012, 05:23:27 am
The message would have to be phrased as broadly "right now we're paying money to destroy Greece; let's pay money to actually, you know, help them instead".


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 21, 2012, 10:42:35 am
The battle for the Left Party continues... maybe we can still hope for the big Lafontaine (leftish, Western, former SPD/WASG) vs. Bartsch (rightish, Eastern, former SED/PDS) showdown at the federal convention on June 2. But it seems like Lafo is losing ground. Strictly speaking, they're still looking for a woman too, since party statutes require a male and a female co-chairman. So far, nobody seems to run for the female spot though.

Oh, well, they're also expecting Alexis Tsipras in Berlin tomorrow. Maybe they can show him how you don't run a party. :P

(Before anyone asks... yes, the former SED guy is the "moderate" one of the candidates. As it is in fact often the case with the Left Party.)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 21, 2012, 10:53:30 am
Strictly speaking, they're still looking for a woman too, since party statutes require a male and a female co-chairman. So far, nobody seems to run for the female spot though.

What about Wagenknecht ? She not interested anymore ? Would a Lafontaine-Wagenknecht leadership be too much for the Left ?

(http://bilder.bild.de/fotos-skaliert/lafontaine-beim-karneval-24987477-mbqf-22604730/3,h=343.bild.jpg)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 21, 2012, 10:58:09 am
Would a Lafontaine-Wagenknecht leadership be too much for the Left ?

Precisely. Lafontaine as chairman and the woman he has sex with as his co-leader would be a bit too much to bear.

But maybe Lafontaine withdraws his bid and we'll end up with Bartsch/Wagenknecht as co-chairmen of the party in the end. That's still a feasible scenario, I suppose.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 21, 2012, 01:31:30 pm
(Before anyone asks... yes, the former SED guy is the "moderate" one of the candidates. As it is in fact often the case with the Left Party.)

Of course it is.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 22, 2012, 01:30:43 am
NRW-BOOST !

New YOUGOV/INSA/BILD poll:

33% CDU/CSU
32% SPD
14% Greens
  8% Pirates
  6% Left
  4% FDP
  3% Others

http://de.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idDEBEE84L00720120522

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/weitere-umfragen.htm

Since their May 1 poll, CDU/CSU is down by 3, the SPD is up 5, the Greens up 1, the Left down 1, the Pirates down 1 and the FDP is unchanged.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 22, 2012, 01:34:53 am
This must be rather disturbing for Merkel, actually.
As long as the CDU is in first place, there's virtually no chance that she won't remain Chancellor, regardless with what coalition. If the SPD is gaining that strongly, though...?

It's probably just a Kraft bump that will go down, but it is perhaps something to worry about a little.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on May 22, 2012, 01:39:28 am
This must be rather disturbing for Merkel, actually.
As long as the CDU is in first place, there's virtually no chance that she won't remain Chancellor, regardless with what coalition. If the SPD is gaining that strongly, though...?

It's probably just a Kraft bump that will go down, but it is perhaps something to worry about a little.

A Grand Coalition led by Merkel is still much more likely than Red-Green, because I think the Pirates and Greens will remain strong until the fall of next year and the Left will probably also rise again slightly after their convention turns out well. Therefore the CDU should remain ahead of the SPD again, because the FDP will continue to be around 4% with Rösler.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 22, 2012, 01:42:35 am
BTW: I'm rather uninformed about what thing: Has anything actually been changed about the Überhangmandate?

Not that it would cause much havoc with the SPD almost at equal strength.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 22, 2012, 06:16:01 am
BTW: I'm rather uninformed about what thing: Has anything actually been changed about the Überhangmandate?

Not that it would cause much havoc with the SPD almost at equal strength.

Well, a new electoral law had been passed late last year. It neither abolished overhang seats nor the problems with the negative vote weight though. Which is why another complaint has been filed with the Constitutional Court. It's therefore quite possible that the new electoral law will be sacked as well.

More information on that:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/bundestag/verfassungsbeschwerde-bundeswahlgesetz.html


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 22, 2012, 11:55:38 am
(Before anyone asks... yes, the former SED guy is the "moderate" one of the candidates. As it is in fact often the case with the Left Party.)

Of course it is.
Exactly as with the 80s Greens, though for only partially identical reasons.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 23, 2012, 02:18:34 am
New federal poll from Forsa:

CDU 31
SPD 27
Piraten 13
Grüne 13
FDP 6
Linke 6



Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 23, 2012, 03:21:33 am
And Lafontaine has withdrawn.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 23, 2012, 03:25:08 am
And Lafontaine has withdrawn.

In his own, unique style.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: batmacumba on May 23, 2012, 03:33:39 am
Isn't Wagenknecht some type of stalinist?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 23, 2012, 05:43:33 am
Isn't Wagenknecht some type of stalinist?

Officially, she's just a communist. :D

Lafontaine has dropped out, he and his supporters have called on Bartsch to do the same. Bartsch refuses... so far.

Meanwhile, Katja Kipping and Katharina Schwabedissen have announced a joint candidacy for the both chair(wo)man positions. This would certainly mean a distinct break from the previous leaderships of Left Party which were often dominated by old men (Schwabedissen is 39, Kipping is 34).


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: batmacumba on May 23, 2012, 08:01:01 am
Isn't Wagenknecht some type of stalinist?

Officially, she's just a communist. :D

Lafontaine has dropped out, he and his supporters have called on Bartsch to do the same. Bartsch refuses... so far.

Meanwhile, Katja Kipping and Katharina Schwabedissen have announced a joint candidacy for the both chair(wo)man positions. This would certainly mean a distinct break from the previous leaderships of Left Party which were often dominated by old men (Schwabedissen is 39, Kipping is 34).

:D

Is there any chance she (them) can change Die Linke onto a libertarian left/real democratic left ensamble, or is the stasi yoke uncleanable?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ingemann on May 23, 2012, 10:56:21 am
Isn't Wagenknecht some type of stalinist?

Officially, she's just a communist. :D

Lafontaine has dropped out, he and his supporters have called on Bartsch to do the same. Bartsch refuses... so far.

Meanwhile, Katja Kipping and Katharina Schwabedissen have announced a joint candidacy for the both chair(wo)man positions. This would certainly mean a distinct break from the previous leaderships of Left Party which were often dominated by old men (Schwabedissen is 39, Kipping is 34).

:D

Is there any chance she (them) can change Die Linke onto a libertarian left/real democratic left ensamble, or is the stasi yoke uncleanable?

Seeing that the old SED types are the only ones trying to compromise to get some of the party's politic through, getting rid of them would just result in Linke becoming even more irrelevant.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 23, 2012, 11:06:03 am
I'm all for a Katja Kipping - Sahra Wagenknecht team for cochairs.

(http://www.welt.de/img/dc5-images/origs101751757/579972372-w900-h600/Linke-Kipping-BM-Berlin-Dresden.jpg)

(http://www.sahra-wagenknecht.de/serveImage.php?id=154&type=o)

;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on May 23, 2012, 12:01:48 pm
Klaus Ernst has just endorsed Sarah Wagenknecht for chairmanship, so your wish could still come true.

Personally, I find Kipping much hotter. Wagenknecht had always weird eyebrows and nose IMO. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 23, 2012, 12:04:49 pm
Klaus Ernst has just endorsed Sarah Wagenknecht for chairmanship, so your wish could still come true.

Personally, I find Kipping much hotter. Wagenknecht had always weird eyebrows and nose IMO. :P

How about the Linke just löses itself auf and the two hot women can pursue something more useful?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 23, 2012, 12:27:59 pm
I don't think Oskar Lafontaine is more useful than the Linkspartei. And that's what Sahra is otherwise pursuing. ;D


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: batmacumba on May 23, 2012, 04:28:27 pm
Klaus Ernst has just endorsed Sarah Wagenknecht for chairmanship, so your wish could still come true.

Personally, I find Kipping much hotter. Wagenknecht had always weird eyebrows and nose IMO. :P

How about the Linke just löses itself auf and the two hot women can pursue something more useful?

Well, this is Kipping's worse pic I've saw, as well the best Wagenknecht's (usually She's always with an evil grin), and even so Kipping is more attractive. But, if they chose to decide It on objectification (oh, the irony of a feminist rule becoming a pageant contest) no one could beat Bonk.
BTW, WTF this hot women concentration on Die Linke?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 24, 2012, 12:59:03 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/8_24_05_12_12_53_34.PNG)
(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/8_24_05_12_12_54_42.PNG)

These took a while, but I like to delude myself into thinking that it was worth it.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on May 24, 2012, 01:26:30 pm
That Bielefeld constituency must be a nice gerry to unite all the most "urbane" parts of the city-that-doesn't-exist. While of course Cologne actually comes out a bit of an anti-Green gerry.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on May 30, 2012, 04:26:19 am
New federal poll from Forsa:

CDU 32
SPD 27
Grüne 13
Piraten 12
Linke 6
FDP 5


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 02, 2012, 02:08:58 pm
Katja Kipping easily beats some unknown from Hamburg for the first chairmanship position. The woman she'd originally co-announced with had previously withdrawn from the race. Showdown between Bartsch and some unknown Lafo standin from BaWü (Bernd Riexinger) expected for the second slot, tho' there may be more candidates.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on June 02, 2012, 02:19:58 pm
Actually, Dora Heyenn is not that unknown in the Left party. She's Chairwoman of the Left Party in the Hamburg parliament. Interesting are the over 200 invalid votes. What's going on in Göttingen?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on June 02, 2012, 04:34:41 pm
Bernd who???

Although I have to admit that this Jürgen Stange guy was hilarious. He looked and sounded almost like the German version of Jimmy McMillan. :P Without the gloves.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 03, 2012, 03:29:48 am
Actually, Dora Heyenn is not that unknown in the Left party. She's Chairwoman of the Left Party in the Hamburg parliament.
Unknown to anyone but Hamburgers and Left Party insiders.

Just like Riexinger then (who won, fairly narrowly.)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on June 05, 2012, 12:07:48 am
Following the leadership election, the Left has now dropped to 4% (below the 5% barrier for parliamentary representation):

34% CDU/CSU
32% SPD
14% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% FDP
  4% Left
  4% Others

SPD-Greens (46%) is now tied with CDU-CSU-Pirates-FDP (46%).


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Dereich on June 05, 2012, 12:34:55 am
Following the leadership election, the Left has now dropped to 4% (below the 5% barrier for parliamentary representation):

34% CDU/CSU
32% SPD
14% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% FDP
  4% Left
  4% Others

SPD-Greens (46%) is now tied with CDU-CSU-Pirates-FDP (46%).

Is that a possible coalition? I'd think the Pirates would be much more at home with the SDP-Green crowd.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on June 05, 2012, 03:16:08 am
Following the leadership election, the Left has now dropped to 4% (below the 5% barrier for parliamentary representation):

34% CDU/CSU
32% SPD
14% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% FDP
  4% Left
  4% Others

SPD-Greens (46%) is now tied with CDU-CSU-Pirates-FDP (46%).

Is that a possible coalition? I'd think the Pirates would be much more at home with the SDP-Green crowd.

Such a coalition is not possible. But it shows that SPD and Greens are very close to a majority on their own.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Flocke on June 05, 2012, 10:00:57 am
Berlin-Lichtenberg
Berlin-Treptow – Köpenick
Berlin-Marzahn – Hellersdorf

Those seats seem quite safe to me. So the Linke could stay in Bundestag even if they don't make the threshold. At least, that was the case before the electoral reform.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 05, 2012, 01:33:02 pm
The SPD won all the direct seats in Treptow-Köpenick in the 2011 elections, so in the event of a KPD collapse, maybe not quite so safe.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: mileslunn on June 05, 2012, 06:01:26 pm
Following the leadership election, the Left has now dropped to 4% (below the 5% barrier for parliamentary representation):

34% CDU/CSU
32% SPD
14% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% FDP
  4% Left
  4% Others

SPD-Greens (46%) is now tied with CDU-CSU-Pirates-FDP (46%).

Is that a possible coalition? I'd think the Pirates would be much more at home with the SDP-Green crowd.

Such a coalition is not possible. But it shows that SPD and Greens are very close to a majority on their own.

Is this national?  Also I kind of suspect the parties on the right will do better than the polls say.  After all in Denmark and France most polls had the left with a much bigger lead than what they got.  It was only once the election got under way the numbers closed in.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on June 05, 2012, 10:46:02 pm
In the UK, the Tories were supposed to win in a big landslide and Labour was supposed to be crushed, instead it ended up being a weak Tory minority and Labour suffered much milder losses than anyone expected...every time you think you have a pattern, something contrary happens. One thing that is about 99.99999% certain is that there will be no more rightwing CDU/FDP coalition in Germany aft the next election. The best Merkel can hope for is that she shifts over to a centre-left coalition with the SPD and they will get wayy more cabinet seats than the FDP currently has since they would have close to have of the combined CDU and SPD vote.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on June 06, 2012, 05:56:16 am
Quote
Those seats seem quite safe to me. So the Linke could stay in Bundestag even if they don't make the threshold. At least, that was the case before the electoral reform.
The "electoral reform" had no influence on the Grundmandatsklausel, that gives parties who won three constituencies full representation, even if they missed the five percent treshold.

@Comrade Sibboleth: Berlin-Treptow-Köpenick is the constituency, Gregor Gysi won twice with much more personal votes than votes for the Left Party list. As long as Gysi stands there, it should be safe.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 06, 2012, 10:28:28 am
In the UK, the Tories were supposed to win in a big landslide and Labour was supposed to be crushed, instead it ended up being a weak Tory minority and Labour suffered much milder losses than anyone expected...every time you think you have a pattern, something contrary happens. One thing that is about 99.99999% certain is that there will be no more rightwing CDU/FDP coalition in Germany aft the next election. The best Merkel can hope for is that she shifts over to a centre-left coalition with the SPD and they will get wayy more cabinet seats than the FDP currently has since they would have close to have of the combined CDU and SPD vote.
Lol if the SPD agrees to that then can there be any doubt that they will be drubbed massively in 2017? 


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 06, 2012, 10:43:07 am
In the UK, the Tories were supposed to win in a big landslide and Labour was supposed to be crushed, instead it ended up being a weak Tory minority and Labour suffered much milder losses than anyone expected...every time you think you have a pattern, something contrary happens. One thing that is about 99.99999% certain is that there will be no more rightwing CDU/FDP coalition in Germany aft the next election. The best Merkel can hope for is that she shifts over to a centre-left coalition with the SPD and they will get wayy more cabinet seats than the FDP currently has since they would have close to have of the combined CDU and SPD vote.
Lol if the SPD agrees to that then can there be any doubt that they will be drubbed massively in 2017? 

It'd be that or for them to stay in opposition and look like wreckers as Merkel tries to talk with the Greens and the Pirates and it goes without saying that there'll be no Black-Green-Pirate coalition.

Saying that, there's still hope that the SDP could finish first, or their could be some kind've SDP-Green majority, right?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 06, 2012, 12:30:19 pm
@Comrade Sibboleth: Berlin-Treptow-Köpenick is the constituency, Gregor Gysi won twice with much more personal votes than votes for the Left Party list. As long as Gysi stands there, it should be safe.

Oh, sure, sure. I was originally going to mention him. But it's not quite in the automatic category, at least in the event of their vote halving or whatever.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 07, 2012, 04:05:42 am
Remember that the SPD held that constituency in 94, 98 and 02 as well.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on June 16, 2012, 12:01:50 am
New Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll shows the SPD at the highest level in 2 years:

34% CDU/CSU
32% SPD
13% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% Left
  5% FDP
  4% Others

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ZuWo on June 16, 2012, 04:08:51 am
When will we see the FDP overtake Die Linke again?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: LastVoter on June 16, 2012, 04:43:21 pm
When will we see the FDP overtake Die Linke again?
Hopefully never. I wonder when will more East Germans will vote for Linke.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 16, 2012, 04:45:20 pm
New Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll shows the SPD at the highest level in 2 years:

34% CDU/CSU
32% SPD
13% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% Left
  5% FDP
  4% Others

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

Edging closer to a red-green majority as well.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 17, 2012, 01:07:21 am
Kraft is also preferred as Chancellor to Merkel now, according to a new poll.  43% said they preferred Kraft.  34% preferred Merkel.  Oh boy, I hope this trend lasts!

Hanneloremomentum! 


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on June 17, 2012, 01:09:20 am
Kraft is also preferred as Chancellor to Merkel now, according to a new poll.  43% said they preferred Kraft.  34% preferred Merkel.  Oh boy, I hope this trend lasts!

Hanneloremomentum! 

In the very unlikely event that she runs for the SPD-frontrunner post next year, who would follow her in NRW as SPD leader ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on June 17, 2012, 03:24:37 am
That poll is actually a month old.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on June 17, 2012, 09:18:42 am
That poll is actually a month old.
Oh.  The post was near the top if you check "Kraft Merkel" in Google news.  I just assumed it was new.  But I just checked it, and I guess you're right. 


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 17, 2012, 09:28:17 am
That poll is actually a month old.
Oh.  The post was near the top if you check "Kraft Merkel" in Google news.  I just assumed it was new.  But I just checked it, and I guess you're right. 

It's from June 15th according to Wikipedia


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on June 20, 2012, 07:24:05 am
Kraft is also preferred as Chancellor to Merkel now, according to a new poll.  43% said they preferred Kraft.  34% preferred Merkel.  Oh boy, I hope this trend lasts!

Hanneloremomentum! 

In the very unlikely event that she runs for the SPD-frontrunner post next year, who would follow her in NRW as SPD leader ?

I would guess Ralf Jäger minister of the interior. He seems quite established.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on June 20, 2012, 07:34:46 am
There is a first projection for the constituencies in Lower Saxony.

http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/content.pl?url=/img/poll/ns_wp_120617.html

Looking good!


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on July 01, 2012, 01:11:41 pm
Okay, I've got another random question.  What are Kraft's positions on Agenda 2010 and the Harz laws?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on July 01, 2012, 04:07:40 pm
Okay, I've got another random question.  What are Kraft's positions on Agenda 2010 and the Harz laws?

Support in principle, but needs some corrections.

A fairly standard post-Schröder SPD position.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on July 01, 2012, 08:53:45 pm
Okay, I've got another random question.  What are Kraft's positions on Agenda 2010 and the Harz laws?

Support in principle, but needs some corrections.

A fairly standard post-Schröder SPD position.
What kind of corrections?  And what does "in principle" mean?  Is it that she thinks that the bulk of the "reforms" were good, or more of a general "we support fiscal responsibility, but this was the wrong way to go about it" type of thing?  
Willy Brandt would be horrified to see what has become of the SPD.  


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on July 07, 2012, 12:03:11 am
Merkel approval rating climbs to 66%:

Quote
The chancellor remains Germany’s most popular politician, with 66 percent saying said she is doing a good job, eight percentage points more than in June and the most since December 2009, according to the monthly Infratest Dimap poll released late yesterday. A record 85 percent said the worst of the turmoil lies ahead, ARD said in an e-mailed statement.

Defense Minister Thomas de Maiziere, who was Merkel’s chief of staff during her first term between 2005 and 2009, had the second-highest approval rating. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Merkel’s Social Democratic challenger in the 2009 election, tied Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble for third place with 61 percent.

Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc would win the largest share of the vote, 35 percent, compared with 30 percent for the Social Democrats, if elections were held now, according to the poll. With 4 percent support for Merkel’s Free Democratic Party ally and 14 percent for the Greens, which were part of a Social Democrat-led government from 1998 to 2005, the poll indicates that neither combination would have a majority in parliament.

The July 2-4 poll of 1,004 people had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-06/merkel-approval-rises-to-highest-since-2009-in-post-summit-poll


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on July 11, 2012, 10:24:46 am
http://newsticker.sueddeutsche.de/list/id/1335970 (http://newsticker.sueddeutsche.de/list/id/1335970)

So the SPD is ahead of the CDU in terms of membership again...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on July 11, 2012, 12:30:41 pm
In case someone still cares about the BaWü elections of 2011... the American legal tradition equivalent of the newest development would probably be "Stefan Mappus indicted" for his role in the EnBW purchase.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on July 19, 2012, 01:17:39 am
Latest Niedersachsen poll (YouGov/Bild):

35% SPD
31% CDU
14% Greens
  7% Pirates
  5% Left
  4% FDP
  4% Others

49-43 majority for SPD/Greens.

http://www.rp-online.de/politik/deutschland/rot-gruen-liegt-in-niedersachsen-klar-vorn-1.2915029


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on July 22, 2012, 07:19:27 am
A new projection for the seats in Lower Saxony:

http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/content.pl?url=/img/poll/ns_wp_120719.html


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on July 25, 2012, 10:09:40 am
So, as expected by all who can and did read (read the 2008 court verdict and the new election law, that is), a number which does not include many government politicians or any political journalists, Angela Merkel's election law is even more unconstitutional than the old one.

The court did its utmost to save her face - it did not octroy a new election law of its own making (though it said it would do so if there's no new law by spring 03) and it did not rule Überhangmandate unconstitutional per se - but because the journos understand nothing of the matter and did not expect the verdict, they are failing to notice that. Unanimous verdict btw.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Yeahsayyeah on July 27, 2012, 07:02:58 am
Quote
and it did not rule Überhangmandate unconstitutional per se - but because the journos understand nothing of the matter and did not expect the verdict, they are failing to notice that. Unanimous verdict btw.
Well, as of now, where "internal" Überhangmandate are possible, there is negative vote weight. Of course the mode of seat allocation could be changed to fix seat contingents per federal state (as in Spain or Finland for example). But this would not be a voting system not proportional as a whole, as the Constitutional Court demanded.

And if half of the seats should be given to the winners of single seat constituencies, as is the case since 1949, there would not be any possibility of compensation for the Überhangmandate. But the court demanded that 15 is the constitutional limit.

And there would be one argument less for the five percent threshold.

So maybe this easiest way to get rid of the negative vote weight, is not possible by constitutional restrictions and political opportunity.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: jimrtex on July 27, 2012, 05:44:31 pm
So, as expected by all who can and did read (read the 2008 court verdict and the new election law, that is), a number which does not include many government politicians or any political journalists, Angela Merkel's election law is even more unconstitutional than the old one.

The court did its utmost to save her face - it did not octroy a new election law of its own making (though it said it would do so if there's no new law by spring 03) and it did not rule Überhangmandate unconstitutional per se - but because the journos understand nothing of the matter and did not expect the verdict, they are failing to notice that. Unanimous verdict btw.

octroy  ???


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on July 28, 2012, 05:46:09 am
It's not my fault English didn't borrow quite all latino-franco-internationalese terms in existence, Jim. ;D

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/oktroyieren


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: jimrtex on July 28, 2012, 10:53:42 pm
It's not my fault English didn't borrow quite all latino-franco-internationalese terms in existence, Jim. ;D

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/oktroyieren

We have to pay extra to use such words.

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/octroy

Do you have a link to the supreme court decision(s)?   Are there any practicable solutions? 


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on July 29, 2012, 04:18:00 am
Do you have a link to the supreme court decision(s)?

2012 (http://www.bverfg.de/entscheidungen/fs20120725_2bvf000311.html)
2008 (http://www.bverfg.de/entscheidungen/cs20080703_2bvc000107.html)

Quote
 Are there any practicable solutions?  
Several, all of them considered inacceptable by the CDU and often also by the SPD (well, at least the SPD have a clear idea of what their preferred solution is, and while clearly constitutional it's not particularly practicable). You see, the easiest solutions would impact on how the big parties are used to doing intra-party business... and any constitutional solution would make an outcome like the last one (24 overhang mandates for the CDU and CSU, none for anybody else) impossible... and the CDU rather likes that advantage.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: jimrtex on July 30, 2012, 11:52:03 am
I'll probably be adding to this, but I want to make sure it isn't lost.


Do you have a link to the supreme court decision(s)?

2012 (http://www.bverfg.de/entscheidungen/fs20120725_2bvf000311.html)
2008 (http://www.bverfg.de/entscheidungen/cs20080703_2bvc000107.html)


So the constitution does not specify the use of MMP?   The English translation reads:

Quote from: Basic Law Article 38
(1) Members of the German Bundestag shall be elected in general, direct, free, equal and secret elections.  They shall be representatives of the whole people, not bound by orders or instructions, and responsible only to their conscience.
(2) Any person who has attained the age of eighteen shall be entitled to vote; any person who has attained the age of majority may be elected.
 (3) Details shall be regulated by a federal law.

I was reading the Google translation of the decisions, so I'm probably missing nuances.    But it appears that the court didn't like overhang seats, and chose to parse "general", "direct", "equal", "secret", and "whole people" in an activist way.

Was the 2008 decision in direct response to the 2005 delayed due-to-candidate-death election in Dresden, where it was quite visible that a second vote for CDU would not secure an additional seat nationally, but in sufficient numbers, could switch it to Saxony eliminating an overhang seat.  So CDU supporters had an incentive to use their second vote for another party, and non-CDU supporters had an incentive to use their second vote for CDU. ??

Why was the switch to Sainte Lague made in 2005?   Was that in response to a court decision or some other reason?  The decision said that the overhang problem was not materially alleviated by the switch, and it sounds like it was unrelated in any case?

Why did the NPD intervene in the present case?  Is it related to the 5% threshold?  IIUC, the decision says that the 5% threshold is OK, because voters know that there is the potential for their vote to be discarded, so they aren't being denied equal representation.

What is meant by „Berliner Zweitstimmen“ ("Berliner second vote") at Paragraph 142?

Why does Google translate:

"Der Zuteilungsdivisor ist so zu bestimmen, dass insgesamt so viele Sitze auf die Landeslisten entfallen, wie Sitze zu vergeben sind."

as

"The divisor is determined such that a total of as many seats on the regional lists of accounts, such as seats are up for grabs."

but if you eliminate parts of the sentences it switches to "allocates" or "awards".   I thought that "up for grabs" was idiomatic?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on July 30, 2012, 02:49:46 pm
But it appears that the court didn't like overhang seats, and chose to parse "general", "direct", "equal", "secret", and "whole people" in an activist way.
Nyes - they didn't start doing that just now. "Equal" has been interpreted as requiring a proportional form of election since the 50s - in decisions okaying the occasional existence of one or two overhang mandates. The mid-90s decision upholding overhang mandates for the time being despite their sudden increase in numbers, but making it impossible to fill vacancies in them also played a major part in the doctrine's evolution.

Quote
Was the 2008 decision in direct response to the 2005 delayed due-to-candidate-death election in Dresden, where it was quite visible that a second vote for CDU would not secure an additional seat nationally, but in sufficient numbers, could switch it to Saxony eliminating an overhang seat.  So CDU supporters had an incentive to use their second vote for another party, and non-CDU supporters had an incentive to use their second vote for CDU.
At least in part, yeah.

Quote
Why was the switch to Sainte Lague made in 2005?   Was that in response to a court decision or some other reason?  The decision said that the overhang problem was not materially alleviated by the switch, and it sounds like it was unrelated in any case?
I haven't the slightest clue as to why the switch. With this many seats and a 5% threshold, the likelihood that the change actually has an effect here is virtually nil (discrepancies occur almost exclusively in relation to a party's - or state list's - first seat, which is not an issue with the first distribution and for the major parties that may win overhang seats not for the second distrubution by Länder either), and in both 2005 and 2009 Hare-Niemeyer and Ste Lague lead to identical outcomes.

Quote
Why did the NPD intervene in the present case?  Is it related to the 5% threshold? 
No idea.
Quote
IIUC, the decision says that the 5% threshold is OK, because voters know that there is the potential for their vote to be discarded, so they aren't being denied equal representation.
Yeah - it has for a while now been established case law that 5% is the maximum allowed height for a threshold, btw. There was an issue with the new election law, if it didn't include the illogical second distribution (§ 6 Abs. 2a) it would effectively raise the threshold in the smallest states to over 5% (not to mention: there would be no point voting for the FDP in Bremen or the Saar Greens anymore because if they don't win a seat, your vote would effectively now count towards all other parties in Bremen rather than the FDP in other states, as previously.) The court says that would have been okay, but it's not hard to see why the FDP didn't think so and forced the inclusion of § 6 Abs. 2a - the 5% threshold is after all still calculated including Bremen and the Saar.

Quote
What is meant by „Berliner Zweitstimmen“ ("Berliner second vote") at Paragraph 142?
The list votes of voters who cast their constituency vote for candidates running for parties that failed the threshold, but won direct election, as happened in two East Berlin constituencies in 2002. They are treated (for reasons unknown...) not as overhang mandates in the seat distribution but rather like elected Independents, so reducing the total number of seats to be distributed to other parties. However, the list votes of voters voting for victorious Independents are disregarded (some SC decision from the 50s IIRC...) while in this case here they are not. Some people in the CDU made a shibboleth of the issue because once you disregard these votes the CDU and CSU together received more votes than the SPD in 2002... though there is no effect on seat distribution, they'd still have won the exact same number of seats. :D The new election law changed it so such votes would be disregarded. The SC just upheld what they said back in 2002 as well: either approach is constitutionally fine, there is no issue here.

Quote
Why does Google translate:

"Der Zuteilungsdivisor ist so zu bestimmen, dass insgesamt so viele Sitze auf die Landeslisten entfallen, wie Sitze zu vergeben sind."

as

"The divisor is determined such that a total of as many seats on the regional lists of accounts, such as seats are up for grabs."
Because it's a sh!tty beta program that would never have been released if Google didn't have such a dominant market position.

"The divisor is to be set so that the total number of seats distributed to the state lists is identical to the number of seats to be distributed" would be my attempt.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on August 24, 2012, 11:20:14 am
We don't have a German General Discussion thread, so I'll just mention it here.

Georg Leber has passed at the ripe old age of 91.
The English wiki stub is alas wholly uninformative.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on September 11, 2012, 09:11:47 am
Meh, I suppose it counts as some sort of election... in October, Germany (and more precisely the Green Party) will hold its first nation-wide party primary ever.

Any of the 60,000 party members are eligible to vote (and to run). The two candidates with the most votes are going to become the party's lead nominees for the Bundestag election in 2013... except when both candidates with the most votes happen to be male, in that case the candidate with the most votes and the female candidate with the most votes are nominated instead (party statutes require at least one woman).

Current candidates are:
- Katrin Göring-Eckardt, deputy speaker of the Bundestag, currently also praeses of the synod of the Evangelical Church of Germany (rightish)
- Renate Künast, co-leader of the Green Bundestag caucus/former federal minister for consumer protection (somewhat rightish)
- Jürgen Trittin, co-leader of the Green Bundestag caucus/former federal minister for the enviroment (somewhat leftish)
- Claudia Roth, co-chairwomen of the Green Party (leftish)

Apart from the aforementioned people, four total unknowns with no chances whatsoever are also running. :P

Ah well, and in all likelihood we'll probably end up with either Trittin/Künast or Trittin/Roth, I guess.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on September 11, 2012, 11:16:29 am
except when both candidates with the most votes happen to be male, in that case the candidate with the most votes and the female candidate with the most votes are nominated instead (party statutes require at least one woman).

How increadibly stupid, they should just hold two seperate ballots, one for female candidates and one for male. And two women can win but not two men?



Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on September 11, 2012, 11:50:14 am
except when both candidates with the most votes happen to be male, in that case the candidate with the most votes and the female candidate with the most votes are nominated instead (party statutes require at least one woman).

How increadibly stupid, they should just hold two seperate ballots, one for female candidates and one for male. And two women can win but not two men?



Are you a sexist? How could you prefer merit over ensuring symbolic gender equality?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on September 11, 2012, 04:18:14 pm
How increadibly stupid, they should just hold two seperate ballots, one for female candidates and one for male.

Strictly speaking, you're only allowed to vote for either a man and a woman or two women on the ballot.



And two women can win but not two men?

Yes. Although in practice this almost certainly doesn't happen.

The Green Party uses the same rule (either a man and a woman or two women) for their co-chairmanship positions. There was a single occassion in the party's history when the "two women" option for chairmanship was actually implemented... in the period between December 1998 and June 2000.

Currently, Jürgen Trittin is widely seen as the frontrunner anyway.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on September 11, 2012, 04:32:13 pm
If I've ever said I prefer the Greens over the SPD I would like to officially flip-flop on that.


Now I don't agree with the Swedish Green Party's gender over merit system, but I can understand it. But a gender over merit system as long as you're the right gender? How do you possibly even justify that? 


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on September 11, 2012, 05:24:37 pm
Um, I'm not really the most adamant advocate of that system either. Although frankly, it doesn't bother me that much. In 90% of all cases it happens to result in 50.0/50.0 gender parity anyway (like the incumbent 3 men +3 women executive committee of the party). But let's say I play the devil's advocate here.

It's all about an assumed imbalance of power between the two genders. Currently, Green party membership is 63% male and 37% female. Now, if two male leaders were allowed, the majority-male membership could in theory always overrule the female minority and elect two men. On the other hand, the female minority could never elect two women to office on its own. For that to happen, you'd need all female members as well as a sizable portion of the male membership. The basic thought behind it is: If a sizable portion of the male members (who constitute the majority of the party and hence are calling the shots) want two women as leaders, why not allow it? However, party statutes forbid two men because the female membership could never veto that on its own.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on September 11, 2012, 05:33:23 pm
Or people could just ignore gender and vote for who they think is best for the job?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on September 11, 2012, 05:36:20 pm
Or people could just ignore gender and vote for who they think is best for the job?
Came here to say that.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on September 11, 2012, 06:28:30 pm
Quote
It's all about an assumed imbalance of power between the two genders. Currently, Green party membership is 63% male and 37% female. Now, if two male leaders were allowed, the majority-male membership could in theory always overrule the female minority and elect two men. On the other hand, the female minority could never elect two women to office on its own. For that to happen, you'd need all female members as well as a sizable portion of the male membership. The basic thought behind it is: If a sizable portion of the male members (who constitute the majority of the party and hence are calling the shots) want two women as leaders, why not allow it? However, party statutes forbid two men because the female membership could never veto that on its own.

That's a terrible defense. You're not very good at being the devil's advocate, I'm sorry to say.

You can have two women if the men allow it? Do you not hear how medieval that sounds? Besides it's not even mathimaticly correct, even if the men are 67% of the electorate, you could still have the men vote for 50.0/50.0 gender parity by giving their top two prefrences to one male and one female candidate, and still end up with two women finsihing in top two overall.

Now basing a system on 50.0/50.0 gender parity rather than merit is to me silly to begin with, but if you do hold the position that it's vital for equality then why not simply reserve half of leadership position for women and half for men (as the Swedish Greens do) instead of reserving half for women and the other half... well what-ever. 

Imagine if the system had been reversed, and you could elect two men but only one woman. There would thankfully and rightfully be a huge outrage. But apperently, symbolic equality is more important than actual equality. 

If the Green party cannot even trust their own members to vote with their mind and not their sex, then I for sure ein't gonna put any trust in them.

 


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on September 12, 2012, 02:57:20 am
That's a terrible defense. You're not very good at being the devil's advocate, I'm sorry to say.

Why? Is there an argument that would have convinced you otherwise? Then put it forward please. ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on September 12, 2012, 04:34:52 am
It's more or less just a party tradition nowadays. Ten years ago when the quota came under attack from the party leadership, it was very much a token of the party still being different from the mainstream parties, and therefore overwhelmingly upheld by the convention delegates. Since then it's sacrosanct.
On Green party lists, first place is reserved for women unless only men stand, lower-down places are reserved for women unless only men stand or the place immediately above was won by a woman.
In practice, at least for state and federal elections that means odd places are for women and even places for men.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on September 12, 2012, 05:11:14 am
It's more or less just a party tradition nowadays. Ten years ago when the quota came under attack from the party leadership, it was very much a token of the party still being different from the mainstream parties, and therefore overwhelmingly upheld by the convention delegates. Since then it's sacrosanct.
On Green party lists, first place is reserved for women unless only men stand, lower-down places are reserved for women unless only men stand or the place immediately above was won by a woman.
In practice, at least for state and federal elections that means odd places are for women and even places for men.

Well, I know some Green women who are *very* adamant about keeping the gender quota as it stands. Then again, some Green men are adamant about making sure that women usually don't exceed 50% when it comes to filling party position. And that's pretty much the usual end result too when those two opposing forces happen to meet each other. :P


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on September 12, 2012, 08:30:04 am
That's a terrible defense. You're not very good at being the devil's advocate, I'm sorry to say.

Why? Is there an argument that would have convinced you otherwise? Then put it forward please. ;)

An argument that could convince me? Certainly not. :P Though even for the most silly ideas there's usually a few good arguments. (No one could for example convince me that gay adoption is wrong, but I've still heard credible arguments against it)

So they keep it because of tradition... You know I'm usually a traditionalist (being royalist and all that) but some traditions should just die out. :P But to every party what they see fit I guess, it's not as if you're forced to become a member or vote for them.   

 


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on September 24, 2012, 09:47:25 am
Two latest Federal polls:

Emind (23.09.2012)
CDU/CSU: 37%
SPD: 27%
Greens: 13%
Left: 8%
Pirates: 6%
FDP: 5%
----------------
Government (CDU/CSU & FDP): 42%
Opposition: 54%

SPD/Greens: 40%



GMS (21.09.2012)
CDU/CSU: 38%
SPD: 26%
Greens: 13%
Left: 6%
Pirates: 6%
FDP: 5%
----------------
Government (CDU/CSU & FDP): 43%
Opposition: 51%

SPD/Greens: 39%


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on September 24, 2012, 09:49:04 am
Pirate Bubble has popped to an extent.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on September 24, 2012, 09:52:22 am
Pirate Bubble has popped to an extent.

Yes, but more importantly: How does the SPD avoid the same trouble it got itself into in 2009? Anything else but a grand coalition under Merkel seems virtually impossible at this point.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on September 24, 2012, 11:39:40 am
I wonder if the SPD might gain some ground once they settle on a candidate for Chancellor?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on September 24, 2012, 11:43:06 am
I wonder if the SPD might gain some ground once they settle on a candidate for Chancellor?

Likely, but they're certainly not going to gain over 10%. They're still going to face what they least want....being junior partner.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on September 28, 2012, 05:00:55 am
Breaking News: Peer Steinbrück will be the SPD's candidate for chancellor.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RodPresident on September 28, 2012, 05:39:27 am
SPD should be open to a coalition with Pirates...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on September 28, 2012, 07:10:54 am
SPD should be open to a coalition with Pirates...

At this point, I doubt the Pirates even get in.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on September 28, 2012, 02:24:07 pm
Breaking News: Peer Steinbrück will be the SPD's candidate for chancellor.
*goes into Obi-wan Kenobi mode* NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!  Well, at least this will finish him off, hopefully. 


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on September 28, 2012, 03:03:04 pm
The saddest thing is that the FDP will almost certainly get in...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on September 28, 2012, 03:51:31 pm
Breaking News: Peer Steinbrück will be the SPD's candidate for chancellor.
*goes into Obi-wan Kenobi mode* NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!  Well, at least this will finish him off, hopefully. 
Hmmm? This was the middle one of three options based on political leanings and the best one based on electability. Just be glad they're not going with Steinmeier again.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 28, 2012, 04:15:30 pm
Just be glad they're not going with Steinmeier again.

Are you suggesting that walking, talking sleeping pills do not make good candidates?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on September 28, 2012, 04:17:16 pm
Just be glad they're not going with Steinmeier again.

Are you suggesting that walking, talking sleeping pills do not make good candidates?
This is an insult to the honor of the pharmaceutical industry.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on September 28, 2012, 04:18:52 pm
Also, Kurt Beck has announced his retirement. On the same day.

This will bring the number of female state pm's up to four. Malu Dreyer is the Anointed.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on September 28, 2012, 05:56:07 pm
The saddest thing is that the FDP will almost certainly get in...
NEVER IN MY LIFE did I think I would ever say this, but:
Crossing fingers for CDU/CSU–FDP majority! 

The reason: It'll be Steinbrück's demise.  Plus, it's not like he'd be any different.  Plus, a grand coalition would prevent the SPD from doing the soul-searching it needs to do to turn left.  And it would almost certainly result in their annihlation in 2017. 


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ZuWo on September 29, 2012, 07:08:02 am
Judging by Steinbrück's comments directed at Switzerland in the ongoing tax row and from other things I have seen about him, I assume Steinbrück is a politician who is not afraid of saying what is on his mind. This may be popular among parts of the German electorate but he could turn out to be an unmitigated disaster on the international diplomatic stage.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on September 29, 2012, 07:18:17 am
Judging by Steinbrück's comments directed at Switzerland in the ongoing tax row and from other things I have seen about him, I assume Steinbrück is a politician who is not afraid of saying what is on his mind. This may be popular among parts of the German electorate but he could turn out to be an unmitigated disaster on the international diplomatic stage.

No, actually, Sigmar Gabriel would have been the loose cannon. Steinbrück has no such reputation.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on September 29, 2012, 07:34:21 am
I think I'm still voting CDU...but I'm willing to listen to Steinbrück.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on September 29, 2012, 11:24:46 pm
Also, Kurt Beck has announced his retirement. On the same day.

This will bring the number of female state pm's up to four. Malu Dreyer is the Anointed.

(http://bilder.t-online.de/b/59/93/31/24/id_59933124/tid_da/kurt-beck-geht-malu-dreyer-kommt.jpg)

The old and the new Governor of Rheinland-Pfalz.

BTW: What kind of first name is "Malu" ? Never heard that before. I've heard "Balu", but not "Malu".


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on September 30, 2012, 03:11:02 am
An abbreviation of Marie Luise.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on September 30, 2012, 02:17:50 pm
I wonder if the SPD left just stepped aside because they knew no one who was good could win and wanted to discredit the neoliberals once and for all.  Wouldn't surprise me. 

My top three choices for 2017, not necessarily in this order:
Hannelore Kraft, Manuela Schwesig, Florian Pronold. 


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on October 01, 2012, 12:06:40 pm
An abbreviation of Marie Luise.

That makes sense. But I thought Malu was a name on its own.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on October 02, 2012, 05:36:13 am
The media is also paying a lot of attention to the fact that Malu Dreyer has MS.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on October 02, 2012, 10:54:49 am
I wonder if the SPD left just stepped aside because they knew no one who was good could win and wanted to discredit the neoliberals once and for all.  Wouldn't surprise me. 

My top three choices for 2017, not necessarily in this order:
Hannelore Kraft, Manuela Schwesig, Florian Pronold. 


The problem for the SPD left is their complete lack of real power and influence. They play almost no role in the partie's decision making. I believe that the strategy is now to get concessions on pension benefits from party leadership.

Regarding 2017 the probable top choices are Hannelore Kraft, Sigmar Gabriel and perhaps Olaf Scholz. Though it all depends wether we'll get another grand coalition, if so a member of the next cabinet is of course also a possibility.

Manuela Schwesig will be still quite young in 2017 and needs much more experience. I like Florian Pronold, but the question is if he can stay state party chairman if the SPD loses the next Bavarian elections (which is quite likely imo)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on October 05, 2012, 10:04:33 am
And a new federal poll from yesterday:

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 31%
Greens: 11%
FDP: 4%
Left: 7%
Pirates: 4%
Others: 4%

It looks like a Steinbrück bump for the CDU ;-)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap.htm


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on October 05, 2012, 10:05:16 am
Interesting


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on October 06, 2012, 12:02:20 am
What about a SPD-Green minority government with the toleration of the Left, in the event that FDP and Pirates fail to get in ? Is that possible or is a Grand Coalition more likely ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on October 06, 2012, 04:32:56 am
What about a SPD-Green minority government with the toleration of the Left, in the event that FDP and Pirates fail to get in ? Is that possible or is a Grand Coalition more likely ?

Strictly speaking, Steinbrück has ruled out both.

But since it is Steinbrück we're talking about, another Grand coalition is far more likely IMO.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: You kip if you want to... on October 06, 2012, 06:24:29 am
Am I right in assuming that this'll be Merkel's last election? By the next election, it'll be what? 12 years?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on October 06, 2012, 06:34:10 am
Am I right in assuming that this'll be Merkel's last election? By the next election, it'll be what? 12 years?

Yes, but Kohl managed 16 :)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on October 06, 2012, 10:22:24 am
What would be the biggest differences between the current CDU/FDP government where the CDU has the vast majority of the power - and a likely new "grand coalition" where the SPD would have to be given close to half of the cabinet portfolios?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on October 06, 2012, 10:29:03 am
What would be the biggest differences between the current CDU/FDP government where the CDU has the vast majority of the power - and a likely new "grand coalition" where the SPD would have to be given close to half of the cabinet portfolios?

Likely very little difference, perhaps a bit more competence, but the fundamentals of Steinbrücks SPD is not far from CDU policies.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on October 07, 2012, 11:55:40 am
Looks like the Green Fritz Kuhn wins the first round of the Stuttgart mayoral election with 36% ...

http://wahlen1.stuttgart.de/wahlen/wahl_h/oberbuergermeisterwahl/2012/obw2012_kandidaten.html

Interesting fact: Stuttgart only had 3 (!!!) mayors so far since WW2 ended (67 years ago).


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on October 08, 2012, 08:09:21 am
Glad to see finally the Pirates are beneath the threshold to enter Parliament. It can be fun to play an episode of My Little Pony in the Parliament of Berlin Land (genuine !), but the Bundestag is another thing... Also, a number of voters getting away from the Pirates come back to Die Linke (albeit maybe more were from the Greens or SPD).


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on October 08, 2012, 08:13:00 am
Glad to see finally the Pirates are beneath the threshold to enter Parliament. It can be fun to play an episode of My Little Pony in the Parliament of Berlin Land (genuine !), but the Bundestag is another thing... Also, a number of voters getting away from the Pirates come back to Die Linke (albeit maybe more were from the Greens or SPD).

I would be quite surprised if the Pirates made it into the Bundestag at this point.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on October 08, 2012, 08:16:30 am
Glad to see finally the Pirates are beneath the threshold to enter Parliament. It can be fun to play an episode of My Little Pony in the Parliament of Berlin Land (genuine !), but the Bundestag is another thing... Also, a number of voters getting away from the Pirates come back to Die Linke (albeit maybe more were from the Greens or SPD).

I would be quite surprised if the Pirates made it into the Bundestag at this point.

I'm not surprised. I always expected them to go the same way as the Swedish Pirate Party. Do really well in one non-general election and then fade.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on October 08, 2012, 08:57:16 am
Which party benefits most from the decline of the Pirates? In other words where are their former supporters migrating to?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on October 08, 2012, 09:14:32 am
Which party benefits most from the decline of the Pirates? In other words where are their former supporters migrating to?

That depends a good deal on where. Non-voters would be my best guess, on average. But from other parties....Greens I'd say. Perhaps the Left in certain locations.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 08, 2012, 11:27:37 am
There's a certain pattern to their support that can be seen in different cities.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on October 08, 2012, 01:01:32 pm
There's a certain pattern to their support that can be seen in different cities.
Two patterns. Greens' strongholds (and perhaps especially "old" core Greens' strongholds - or pre-05 West German PDS strongholds as these are the same areas. ;D ) and a generalized pattern of protest voting, predominantly relatively working class as these things always are, but probably also - this obviously doesn't show up in precinct results - predominantly very young.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on October 14, 2012, 05:09:42 am
The CSU is close to 50% again in Bavaria, says a new Emnid poll for "Focus":

48% CSU
21% SPD
10% Greens
  8% FW
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  5% Others

Seehofer (CSU) defeats Ude (SPD) by 51-35 in the PM direct vote.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on October 14, 2012, 05:13:45 am
The CSU is close to 50% again in Bavaria, says a new Emnid poll for "Focus":

48% CSU
21% SPD
10% Greens
  8% FW
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  5% Others

Seehofer (CSU) defeats Ude (SPD) by 51-35 in the PM direct vote.

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CSyILldnUoM/T1kYgIgZqDI/AAAAAAAACMU/n1H24GPLm6A/s1600/luke_NOOOOOO.jpg)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on October 14, 2012, 05:15:21 am
The CSU is close to 50% again in Bavaria, says a new Emnid poll for "Focus":

48% CSU
21% SPD
10% Greens
  8% FW
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  5% Others

Seehofer (CSU) defeats Ude (SPD) by 51-35 in the PM direct vote.

CSU absolute majority again? Wow.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on October 14, 2012, 05:17:39 am
The CSU is close to 50% again in Bavaria, says a new Emnid poll for "Focus":

48% CSU
21% SPD
10% Greens
  8% FW
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  5% Others

Seehofer (CSU) defeats Ude (SPD) by 51-35 in the PM direct vote.

CSU absolute majority again? Wow.

Back to normal. It will be even clearer if the Pirates consistently drop below the 5% barrier and the FDP also struggles with that threshold.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on October 14, 2012, 05:26:33 am
I would vote SPD in Bayern this election, actually. Surprised Ude hasn't at least improved their numbers a tad...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on October 16, 2012, 07:06:14 pm
I would vote SPD in Bayern this election, actually. Surprised Ude hasn't at least improved their numbers a tad...
They were around 16% before he was announced as their leading-candidate for the election, if I remember correctly.  Lmao at the Texas of Germany.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on October 16, 2012, 07:19:06 pm
I would vote SPD in Bayern this election, actually. Surprised Ude hasn't at least improved their numbers a tad...
They were around 16% before he was announced as their leading-candidate for the election, if I remember correctly.  Lmao at the Texas of Germany.

Not really comparable as Bayern ranks highly in most indicators. Education, income, quality of life, etc. :)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on October 23, 2012, 07:20:24 am
Greens won the Stuttgart mayoral run-off election with 52.9% against a CDU-supported independent on Sunday.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on October 23, 2012, 07:32:35 am
New federal Bundestag poll from Emnid (percentages indicate gain or loss to last election):

CDU/CSU: 38% (+4)
SPD: 29% (+6)
Greens: 12% (+1)
Left: 7% (-5)
Pirates: 6% (+4)
-------------------
FDP: 4% (-11)

Government CDU/CSU + FDP (not represented): 38%
Opposition: 54%

Red-Green: 41%


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on October 23, 2012, 01:18:47 pm
Anecdotal evidence suggests that the Left's Niko Fostiropoulos has by far the best ground game in the upcoming Karlsruhe mayoral election. He will almost certainly do awfully, regardless.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on October 30, 2012, 05:55:36 am
New state level poll from Berlin (Forsa):

CDU 27% (+4)
SPD 26% (-2)
Grüne 19% (+1)
Linke 10 (-2)
Piraten 10 (+1)

FDP apparently listed under "others". (I imagine they're not over 1-2% or so....so yeah.)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on November 08, 2012, 05:44:58 am
Results for the Green primary will be announced the day after tomorrow btw.

Turnout: 61.64%


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on November 09, 2012, 01:58:52 am
CDU/CSU breaks 40% for the first time federally in 5 years in a new Infratest dimap poll:

40% CDU/CSU
30% SPD
14% Greens
  6% Left
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  2% Others

A new Lower-Saxony poll by Infratest dimap also has the CDU ahead in the next state elections on Jan. 20, 2013:

41% CDU
34% SPD
13% Greens
  3% Left
  3% FDP
  3% Pirates
  3% Others

47-41 majority for SPD/Greens over CDU though, because all other parties are below the 5%.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on November 09, 2012, 06:50:28 am
Merkel is quite unstoppable right now.

Her approval rating is at 68%, which is the highest of all politicians:

(http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/crchart3882~_v-grossgalerie16x9.jpg)

She beats Steinbrück in a direct vote for Chancellor by wide margins:

(http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/crchart3884~_v-grossgalerie16x9.jpg)

Merkel is seen as the "stronger leader" by a 62-22 margin.

Merkel leads in "having more support in the own party" by 55-24.

Merkel is seen more "likeable" by 51-30 and "believeable" by 47-25.

Merkel leads "can colve the Euro-crisis" by 42-25.

Steinbrück leads "has more economic knowledge" by 38-33.

Steinbrück leads "does more for social issues" by 35-31.

(http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/crchart3886~_v-grossgalerie16x9.jpg)

(http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/crchart3888~_v-grossgalerie16x9.jpg)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on November 10, 2012, 05:17:39 am
Well, the Green primary led to an somewhat unexpected result.

Jürgen Trittin 71.9%
Katrin Göring-Eckardt 47.3%
Renate Künast 38.6%
Claudia Roth 26.2%

(Since everybody had two votes for two top posts the numbers have to add up to 200% or something? Don't know how this was counted exactly.)

Trittin and Göring-Eckardt are therefore elected lead nominees for the 2013 Bundestag election. While Trittin was widely considered the frontrunner, Göring-Eckardt had the role of an underdog and certainly wouldn't have become lead nominee through the usual backroom deals. She wasn't even the dark horse in that race. If anything, Claudia Roth was the other frontrunner (at least that's the way she saw herself) with Künast being considered the dark horse candidate. Question is now whether Roth steps down as party chairwoman, because this wasn't really a strong vote of confidence from the party's base.

So... LOL @ Roth/Künast


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on November 10, 2012, 04:30:22 pm
Well I've spent the whole day at the SPD's party convention in Lower Saxony. Everyone is extremely confident of the SPD winning the election so we will have to see wether that's correct.

Nevertheless none of the shadow cabinet members said anything revolutionary so the mood seems to not cause any damage before the election.

Furthermore the mood before and during Steinbrück's speech wasn't great so the party certainly has some problems with him.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Hifly on November 10, 2012, 05:25:25 pm
Everyone is extremely confident of the SPD winning the election so we will have to see wether that's correct.

In a room filled with left wing party hacks I wouldn't be surprised. The reality is that it's looking very unlikely.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on November 10, 2012, 10:20:45 pm
Everyone is extremely confident of the SPD winning the election so we will have to see wether that's correct.

In a room filled with left wing party hacks I wouldn't be surprised. The reality is that it's looking very unlikely.
Fixed


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on November 11, 2012, 06:51:55 am
There were a few more token candidates, so yeah, I guess they got 6% of the vote between them. (Would need to check what they did with votes for one candidate only.)
Yeah, that's a pretty ugly result for Roth. Better than I expected (and better than she deserves, and worse than she expected) for Künast though.
Though Göring-Eckardt is precisely the sort of candidate that'll play better with party membership, or also convention delegates, than with either smoke-filled rooms or the electorate at large.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on November 11, 2012, 07:15:10 am
I can't count. These figures add to 184%, not 194%.

Anyways that's 8.6% for the 11 random Joe Blows who individually noticed that Trittin was the only male candidate and therefore filed as well, 5.6% only one vote cast and 0.9% (times two) blank ballots / invalid ballots (say voting for more than two) / voted NOTA (there was such an option). And yes, the percentages are based on turnout times two.

62% of party members voted; the guesstimate before the election was 50 to 60. I'd love for results by state, but it's not available. Only the number of party members entitled to vote per state is:

(http://www.gruene.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Bilder/Redaktion/00-Teaser-2012/10.2012/Urwahl-Grafik1.png)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: MrMittens on November 11, 2012, 09:02:24 am
Just a question, is there a major Eurosceptic party in Germany, as in the UK?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on November 11, 2012, 09:03:23 am
Just a question, is there a major Eurosceptic party in Germany, as in the UK?

None with any chance of breaking 5%.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: MrMittens on November 11, 2012, 09:31:23 am
Just a question, is there a major Eurosceptic party in Germany, as in the UK?

None with any chance of breaking 5%.

So support for the EU is pretty entrenched, even in spite of the Euro crisis?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on November 11, 2012, 10:09:20 am
Just a question, is there a major Eurosceptic party in Germany, as in the UK?

None with any chance of breaking 5%.

So support for the EU is pretty entrenched, even in spite of the Euro crisis?

Just because there is no party that's really eurosceptic, it doesn't mean a sizeable amount of the population is not. I'd say 20-30% of Germans are eurosceptic at the moment, maybe even more ...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on November 11, 2012, 01:13:02 pm
The NPD actually can sometimes break 5% in some of the Eastern part's regional parliaments, but that's all. I think they're rather decreasing than rising nowadays.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on November 11, 2012, 01:41:48 pm
Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 11, 2012, 01:59:18 pm
Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!

I can't see a bunch of youthful, left leaning protest votes going all Eurosceptic. The Pirate's voters don't strike me as the type who would vote for a UKIP.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on November 11, 2012, 05:36:30 pm
Steinbrück an epic failure so far.  http://my.chicagotribune.com/#story/sns-rt-us-germany-politics-steinbrueckbre8a814a-20121109/ (http://my.chicagotribune.com/#story/sns-rt-us-germany-politics-steinbrueckbre8a814a-20121109/)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 11, 2012, 06:28:05 pm
Hah. Yet because of the FDP self-nuke he'll be in cabinet anyways. Merkel continues her glidepath to a third term.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on November 12, 2012, 05:16:11 am
Must be nice to be Angela Merkel right now. Just like in 2009, there's not (yet) any serious way she would lose her office, regardless of coalition.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: politicus on November 12, 2012, 07:17:09 am
Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!
I can't see a bunch of youthful, left leaning protest votes going all Eurosceptic. The Pirate's voters don't strike me as the type who would vote for a UKIP.
They could be. In Scandinavia there is a strong left wing anti-European tradition and Northern Germany is not that culturally different. The EU is committed to fiscally conservatie goals with anti-inflation policies and fiscal austerity deemed more important than fighting unemployment. It is also viewed by many left wingers to be a bureaucratic monster that is pro-big business adnd the establishment. So you dont have to be a conservative to be a euro-sceptic.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solopop on November 12, 2012, 07:32:13 am
Can the Greens, SDP, the Left and the FDP form a coalition?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on November 12, 2012, 07:33:32 am
Can the Greens, SDP, the Left and the FDP form a coalition?

Mitt Romney was more likely to win Vermont.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on November 12, 2012, 07:52:21 am
Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!
I can't see a bunch of youthful, left leaning protest votes going all Eurosceptic. The Pirate's voters don't strike me as the type who would vote for a UKIP.
They could be. In Scandinavia there is a strong left wing anti-European tradition and Northern Germany is not that culturally different. The EU is committed to fiscally conservatie goals with anti-inflation policies and fiscal austerity deemed more important than fighting unemployment. It is also viewed by many left wingers to be a bureaucratic monster that is pro-big business adnd the establishment. So you dont have to be a conservative to be a euro-sceptic.

I'd describe the Left Party as most eurosceptic (or at least most EU-secptic) German "mainstream" party.



Can the Greens, SDP, the Left and the FDP form a coalition?

Mitt Romney was more likely to win Vermont.

I'd say Bernie Sanders is more likely to become the Republican nominee for president in 2016.



Ah, btw... Claudia Roth won't resign as party chairwoman of the Greens, but it was really a 50/50 thing and ultimately she didn't step down after she was urged by many Green leaders not to go.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 12, 2012, 01:28:18 pm
Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!
I can't see a bunch of youthful, left leaning protest votes going all Eurosceptic. The Pirate's voters don't strike me as the type who would vote for a UKIP.
They could be. In Scandinavia there is a strong left wing anti-European tradition and Northern Germany is not that culturally different. The EU is committed to fiscally conservatie goals with anti-inflation policies and fiscal austerity deemed more important than fighting unemployment. It is also viewed by many left wingers to be a bureaucratic monster that is pro-big business adnd the establishment. So you dont have to be a conservative to be a euro-sceptic.


Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!
I can't see a bunch of youthful, left leaning protest votes going all Eurosceptic. The Pirate's voters don't strike me as the type who would vote for a UKIP.
They could be. In Scandinavia there is a strong left wing anti-European tradition and Northern Germany is not that culturally different. The EU is committed to fiscally conservatie goals with anti-inflation policies and fiscal austerity deemed more important than fighting unemployment. It is also viewed by many left wingers to be a bureaucratic monster that is pro-big business adnd the establishment. So you dont have to be a conservative to be a euro-sceptic.

I'd describe the Left Party as most eurosceptic (or at least most EU-secptic) German "mainstream" party.

I agree with both of those statements, but that's not my point. It seems like there is a cleavage on the left between Green/Pirate types and Linke types similar to the differences between Santorum & Romeny Republicans.

From what I can tell from this side of the Atlantic, the sort of people who vote Green/Pirate are educated & younger, with higher incomes. Supporters of Linke seem to be poorer, less educated and from the former East Germany.

I just don't see the young professionals who support the Greens/Pirates going all Eurosceptic. They're too cosmopolitan. One can certainly lean left and be Eurosceptic, but I have yet to see that particular kind of leftist be Eurosceptic.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Diouf on November 13, 2012, 04:42:55 pm
I agree with both of those statements, but that's not my point. It seems like there is a cleavage on the left between Green/Pirate types and Linke types similar to the differences between Santorum & Romeny Republicans.

From what I can tell from this side of the Atlantic, the sort of people who vote Green/Pirate are educated & younger, with higher incomes. Supporters of Linke seem to be poorer, less educated and from the former East Germany.

I just don't see the young professionals who support the Greens/Pirates going all Eurosceptic. They're too cosmopolitan. One can certainly lean left and be Eurosceptic, but I have yet to see that particular kind of leftist be Eurosceptic.

Well, your assessment of the Pirate voters is partly correct. According to a recent study, the average Pirate voter is 34 years old, healthy and well educated, but poor and with a high degree of job uncertainty. The Linke voters are actually wealthier than the Pirate voters. Maybe (some of) the Pirate voters could be described as modern bohemes?

I do think you're right in estimating that they won't be too Eurosceptic, and the study shows that their voters generally have many foreign contacts. From what I've read it seems like the Pirates are generally opposed to the austerity measures in the EU and the way they have been agreed upon. Their main suggestions are for more democracy and transparency with more power to the EP, and the Council turned into a second chamber.

The study can be found at this link: http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2012-09/Piraten-Waehler-Umfrage

Press at the "Die Parteien und das Wählerherz"


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on November 14, 2012, 06:11:28 am
Fwiw, Pirates would probably top the vote (of those who do vote) in the stands at the Waldstadion today.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on November 19, 2012, 12:43:19 pm
3 opinion polls have come out in the last week:

                            Emnid                   FGW                    Forsa

CDU/CSU               39                        39                         39
SPD                       28                        30                         26
Grüne                    13                        13                         14
Linke                      7                          6                           8
Piraten                   5                          4                           4
FDP                        4                          4                           4
     


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on November 20, 2012, 08:43:26 am
New Yougov/INSA poll

CDU/CSU: 38%
SPD: 29%
Greens: 14%
FDP: 4%
Left: 7%
Pirates: 4%
Others: 4%


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 20, 2012, 12:46:58 pm
It will be interesting to see if FDP supporters turn out a bit more if they think they'll lose all of their representation.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on November 20, 2012, 12:47:52 pm
It will be interesting to see if FDP supporters turn out a bit more if they think they'll lose all of their representation.

I don't think the FDP's problem is that its supporters aren't turning out...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: MrMittens on November 20, 2012, 01:00:02 pm
Would 38% be a good polling rate for the CDU (I'm not very knowledgeable about German politics :()


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 20, 2012, 01:14:40 pm
It would be +5 from 2009, but because of the FDP collapse they'll be in Grand Coalition like Merkel's first term.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: jaichind on November 20, 2012, 11:57:48 pm
The results of the next election seems preordained. 
CDU/CSU > SPD
CDU/CSU+FDP < SPD+Greens+Left+Pirates
SDP+Greens < CDU/CSU+FDP+Left+Pirates

Only real question is will FPD or Pirates make it past 5% but the answer to that question seems irrelevent to the makeup of the next government.

So there will be a grand coalition led by CDU/CSU with SPD as junior partners.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on November 21, 2012, 12:50:35 am
The results of the next election seems preordained. 
CDU/CSU > SPD
CDU/CSU+FDP < SPD+Greens+Left+Pirates
SDP+Greens < CDU/CSU+FDP+Left+Pirates

Only real question is will FPD or Pirates make it past 5% but the answer to that question seems irrelevent to the makeup of the next government.

So there will be a grand coalition led by CDU/CSU with SPD as junior partners.

You forgot CDU/CSU/Greens, which is considered right now in Germany as a "serious" option.

CDU/CSU+FDP+Left+Pirates on the other hand is totally unlikely.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Tender Branson on November 21, 2012, 01:28:35 am
New Bayern poll by GMS:

48% CSU
20% SPD
10% Greens
  8% FW
  5% FDP
  4% Pirates
  2% Left
  3% Others

Absolute majority for CSU.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on November 21, 2012, 07:34:29 am
New Karlsruhe/Mayor Poll from Cobus (500 eligible voters)

46,6% Frank Mentrup (SPD/Grünen/KAL/Piraten)
42,8% Ingo Wellenreuther (CDU)
05,1% Niko Fostiropoulos (Linke)
04,9% Friedemann Kalmbach (GfK)
00,6% Jürgen Wenzel (Freie Wähler)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on November 21, 2012, 04:39:10 pm
Would 38% be a good polling rate for the CDU (I'm not very knowledgeable about German politics :()

As has already been mentioned, you really need to look at their reliable partner to deem whether it's good. High thirties is a pretty good figure for the CDU/CSU in recent times, but when mentioned alongside a complete collapse of the FDP, it starts to look less rosy. 42% for the Right would be one of their weakest showings in decades, comparable to their result in '98 (Schroder's victory).


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on November 23, 2012, 10:28:18 am
New Infratest Dimap Bundestag opinion poll:

CDU/CSU 40%
SPD 30%
Grüne 14%
Linke 6%
----------------
Piraten 4%
FDP 4%
others 2%


Government: CDU/CSU (40) + FDP (0) = 40%
Opposition: SPD (30) + Grüne (14) + Linke (6) = 50%

Or counting those parties under 5%: Government 44, Opposition 56 (as a share of the pure vote)



Also interesting, they show both West and East Germany:

West:

CDU/CSU 41%
SPD 31%
Grüne 15%
Piraten 4%
FDP 4%
Linke 3%
others 2%

East:
CDU 37%
SPD 26%
Linke 17%
Grüne 10%
Piraten 4%
FDP 3%
others 3%


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on November 23, 2012, 11:16:31 am
I would never have expected to see Pirates at the same rate in East and West Germany ! Did they split Berlin as it used to be in that poll ?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Kitteh on November 23, 2012, 02:00:38 pm
New Infratest Dimap Bundestag opinion poll:

Opposition: SPD (30) + Grüne (14) + Linke (6) = 50%


If only this was a possible coalition *deep sigh*.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Peter the Lefty on November 24, 2012, 10:07:35 am
Ah geez.  This is depressing.  Dear God, how I hope Merkel won't be a 4-termer.  


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 24, 2012, 12:34:06 pm
I'm guessing Steinbruck will hold the jobs he had in Merkel's first term: finance minister and vice-chancellor.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on November 24, 2012, 12:35:14 pm
I'm guessing Steinbruck will hold the jobs he had in Merkel's first term: finance minister and vice-chancellor.

Which was....and will be.....a rather good government, actually.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 24, 2012, 01:09:45 pm
I'm guessing policy won't change that much either, just the names and faces.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on November 24, 2012, 07:32:18 pm
I'm guessing Steinbruck will hold the jobs he had in Merkel's first term: finance minister and vice-chancellor.

Steinbrück wasn't vice-chancellor.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on November 24, 2012, 11:29:19 pm
God, the German party system is really broken.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on November 25, 2012, 05:44:28 am
God, the German party system is really broken.

All paths lead to Merkel!

The sooner you admit that...... ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on November 25, 2012, 05:45:14 am
I'm guessing Steinbruck will hold the jobs he had in Merkel's first term: finance minister and vice-chancellor.

Steinbrück wasn't vice-chancellor.

Yeah, it was the other stone.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on November 25, 2012, 06:01:40 am
I'm guessing Steinbruck will hold the jobs he had in Merkel's first term: finance minister and vice-chancellor.

Steinbrück wasn't vice-chancellor.

Yeah, it was the other stone.

For the latter half of the grand coalition anway.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on November 25, 2012, 06:35:37 am
New Bundestag poll from Emnid:

CDU/CSU 38%
SPD 29%
Grüne 15%
Linke 7%

FDP 4%
Piraten 4%
others 3%


Among those parties that would make it in: Government 38, Opposition 51

Among all: Government 42, Opposition 58



Coalitions with a majority:

CDU/CSU-Greens
SPD-Greens-Left
CDU/CSU-SPD


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 25, 2012, 07:54:27 am
Does the FDP vote have a chance of picking up if some of it's former supporters realise it won't make it back into the Bundestag in the final weeks of the campaign?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on November 25, 2012, 08:14:21 am
Does the FDP vote have a chance of picking up if some of it's former supporters realise it won't make it back into the Bundestag in the final weeks of the campaign?

I consider this very likely , yes. Wouldn't be the first time.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on November 25, 2012, 01:39:29 pm
Does the FDP vote have a chance of picking up if some of it's former supporters realise it won't make it back into the Bundestag in the final weeks of the campaign?

I consider this very likely , yes. Wouldn't be the first time.

Though in this case its abundantly clear that it doesn't really matter if the FDP gets over or under the 5% barrier - they will have no where near enough seats to recreate the CDU-FDP coalition so they won't be part of the game. What possible incentive is there for a CDU voter to cast a strategic vote for the FDP when it doesn't really matter?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on November 25, 2012, 02:13:32 pm
What possible incentive was there to vote Green instead of SPD in 2009? Many millions of people vote kinda-sorta tactical in Germany, but not exactly in an entirely rational way. Of course, that's because the voting system only encourages some possible ways of voting tactically while proscribing others that people might actually be more interested in.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 25, 2012, 05:56:33 pm
Does the FDP vote have a chance of picking up if some of it's former supporters realise it won't make it back into the Bundestag in the final weeks of the campaign?

I consider this very likely , yes. Wouldn't be the first time.

Though in this case its abundantly clear that it doesn't really matter if the FDP gets over or under the 5% barrier - they will have no where near enough seats to recreate the CDU-FDP coalition so they won't be part of the game. What possible incentive is there for a CDU voter to cast a strategic vote for the FDP when it doesn't really matter?

I'm not talking CDU voters. FDP got around 14% in the last election and is polling around 4% right now. Some of the 10% of the electorate could probably be convinced to vote FDP again if they think that their vote boots the FDP out of the Bundestag entirely instead of just making them lose seats.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on November 26, 2012, 03:07:45 pm
Most of these people are CDU voters. (Sort of.)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on November 26, 2012, 04:56:41 pm
In the mean time, Rot-Rot-Grün still has a virtual majority...

And is still not an option...


Sigh... Damn SPD.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 26, 2012, 06:07:15 pm
In the mean time, Rot-Rot-Grün still has a virtual majority...

And is still not an option...


Sigh... Damn SPD.

Wouldn't a good chunk of SPD's vote start jumping ship if SPD & Linke made friends?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on November 26, 2012, 06:08:28 pm
In the mean time, Rot-Rot-Grün still has a virtual majority...

And is still not an option...


Sigh... Damn SPD.

Wouldn't a good chunk of SPD's vote start jumping ship if SPD & Linke made friends?

They haven't got that much left to lose...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: LastVoter on November 27, 2012, 12:43:40 am
In the mean time, Rot-Rot-Grün still has a virtual majority...

And is still not an option...


Sigh... Damn SPD.

Wouldn't a good chunk of SPD's vote start jumping ship if SPD & Linke made friends?
Wouldn't Linke fall to 3-4%(below threshold) because most of their voters are protest votes against SPD?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 27, 2012, 07:24:32 am
In the mean time, Rot-Rot-Grün still has a virtual majority...

And is still not an option...


Sigh... Damn SPD.

Wouldn't a good chunk of SPD's vote start jumping ship if SPD & Linke made friends?
Wouldn't Linke fall to 3-4%(below threshold) because most of their voters are protest votes against SPD?

Mostly. Linke was getting around 5% consistently until Schroder got turfed. They got 11% in the last election so I'd guess about 1/2 of their support would find a protest vote somewhere.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: RedPrometheus on November 27, 2012, 08:21:56 am
It will hurt both parties probably in the short run. But I think after the next federal election the leaders of both parties will have to look at a strategic perspective of working together.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on November 27, 2012, 08:29:39 pm
Why after the next election? You'd think that if there's anything to spur some conciliation it would be to avoid the depressing eventuality of another grand coalition, that is essentially propping up the Right on a decline. At the last election the SPD received their worst result following a grand coalition, coupled with the Greens and the Left gaining their best results, so grand coalitions aren't exactly risk-averse regards to loss of support, either.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: LastVoter on November 27, 2012, 08:52:55 pm
Why after the next election? You'd think that if there's anything to spur some conciliation it would be to avoid the depressing eventuality of another grand coalition, that is essentially propping up the Right on a decline. At the last election the SPD received their worst result following a grand coalition, coupled with the Greens and the Left gaining their best results, so grand coalitions aren't exactly risk-averse regards to loss of support, either.
Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Kitteh on November 27, 2012, 08:56:35 pm
Why after the next election? You'd think that if there's anything to spur some conciliation it would be to avoid the depressing eventuality of another grand coalition, that is essentially propping up the Right on a decline. At the last election the SPD received their worst result following a grand coalition, coupled with the Greens and the Left gaining their best results, so grand coalitions aren't exactly risk-averse regards to loss of support, either.
Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?
No, because the 99.9% of people who aren't political junkies who watch this like a sport don't like endless snap elections. Doing that would just hurt the SPD. 

Also the CDU isn't "dying", they're doing pretty well in the polls and Merkel has a strong approval rating.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 27, 2012, 08:58:02 pm
Why after the next election? You'd think that if there's anything to spur some conciliation it would be to avoid the depressing eventuality of another grand coalition, that is essentially propping up the Right on a decline. At the last election the SPD received their worst result following a grand coalition, coupled with the Greens and the Left gaining their best results, so grand coalitions aren't exactly risk-averse regards to loss of support, either.
Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?

If an election were held today, CDU would pick up about 4% of the vote.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: LastVoter on November 27, 2012, 09:18:39 pm
Why after the next election? You'd think that if there's anything to spur some conciliation it would be to avoid the depressing eventuality of another grand coalition, that is essentially propping up the Right on a decline. At the last election the SPD received their worst result following a grand coalition, coupled with the Greens and the Left gaining their best results, so grand coalitions aren't exactly risk-averse regards to loss of support, either.
Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?

If an election were held today, CDU would pick up about 4% of the vote.
You mean 40%?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 27, 2012, 09:46:46 pm
Why after the next election? You'd think that if there's anything to spur some conciliation it would be to avoid the depressing eventuality of another grand coalition, that is essentially propping up the Right on a decline. At the last election the SPD received their worst result following a grand coalition, coupled with the Greens and the Left gaining their best results, so grand coalitions aren't exactly risk-averse regards to loss of support, either.
Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?

If an election were held today, CDU would pick up about 4% of the vote.
You mean 40%?

I meant 4% more than they got last time.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on November 28, 2012, 08:14:51 am
When I said Right on the decline, I was talking about the combined right - the CDU/CSU-FDP is polling at the lowest figures in decades. Obviously the CDU has benefited in support from the FDP collapse - just as you'd expect the SPD to if the Greens were to do the same - but as their go-to coalition partners, it's clearly a setback - or it would be without the assured propping up by the SPD.

Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?
Absolutely anything would be better for the SPD than propping up the CDU, but it won't stop them.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 28, 2012, 09:30:37 am
When I said Right on the decline, I was talking about the combined right - the CDU/CSU-FDP is polling at the lowest figures in decades. Obviously the CDU has benefited in support from the FDP collapse - just as you'd expect the SPD to if the Greens were to do the same - but as their go-to coalition partners, it's clearly a setback - or it would be without the assured propping up by the SPD.

Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?
Absolutely anything would be better for the SPD than propping up the CDU, but it won't stop them.

The voters don't take very kindly to multiple snap elections.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 28, 2012, 09:33:30 am
The thing is, it's not really so long ago that the product now known as Die Linke was marked as SED. It complicates matters and also acts as an excellent excuse for not touching with a bargepole of proverbial length. Then, of course, you have to remember that many of said party's members who were not in the SED (or from that political tradition) are defectors from the SPD, and we all know what defection-linked psychodrama can be like. Oh, and the two parties are in direct competition for votes. Whether these are legit reasons or not isn't really relevant...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on November 28, 2012, 09:52:51 am
I understand the difficulties and don't expect a SPD-Left coalition in the foreseeable future (obviously with Greens included in that) but I'll argue for it nonetheless given how the current situation enormously helps the Right. 

The voters don't take very kindly to multiple snap elections.
Voters don't take very kindly to their party propping up their ideological opposite, either.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on November 28, 2012, 10:04:25 am
SPD and CDU aren't exactly ideological opposites.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on November 28, 2012, 10:23:35 am
True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on November 28, 2012, 10:26:05 am
True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

Yeah, you're right. Just noting that the German consensus between center-left and center-right is pretty close together in the grand scheme of things. Compare Democrats-Republicans...or Torys-Labour.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: MaxQue on November 28, 2012, 10:28:07 am
True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

Depends of the voter. The socialist, left-leaning voter was angry, but the centrist one probably liked the CDU-SPD government.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on November 28, 2012, 10:36:39 am
True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

Yeah, you're right. Just noting that the German consensus between center-left and center-right is pretty close together in the grand scheme of things. Compare Democrats-Republicans...or Torys-Labour.

I guess my original wording comes from the fact I'm far from convinced the average Labour or Democrat voter is happy with the alignment. Obviously the SPD voter has more places to go to register that, but still:

True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

Depends of the voter. The socialist, left-leaning voter was angry, but the centrist one probably liked the CDU-SPD government.

Yeah, but that would have two thirds of German voters (which is what the CDU/SPD are currently polling) happy with that - I'd find it incredible if they were all centrists.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on November 28, 2012, 04:07:58 pm
True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

Yeah, you're right. Just noting that the German consensus between center-left and center-right is pretty close together in the grand scheme of things. Compare Democrats-Republicans...or Torys-Labour.

I guess the fact that the CDU isn't nearly as insane as the Republicans helps a lot. :P The SPD, on the other hand, is only barely to the left of Democrats.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on November 29, 2012, 03:55:42 pm
I'm seriously beginning to wonder if it's only in France where we have some kind of left and right that won't event hink of making a "grand coalition". It's like a plague for Nate's sake !

You might as well scrap governments and have all managed by administrations rather than have grand coalitions. These things are the cancer of the political landscape.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 29, 2012, 08:45:28 pm
True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

Depends of the voter. The socialist, left-leaning voter was angry, but the centrist one probably liked the CDU-SPD government.

I would assume that a centrist voter who liked the grand coalition would vote CDU rather than SPD.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: mubar on November 30, 2012, 07:11:40 am
True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one.  

Depends of the voter. The socialist, left-leaning voter was angry, but the centrist one probably liked the CDU-SPD government.

I would assume that a centrist voter who liked the grand coalition would vote CDU rather than SPD.

But that depends on so many factors, and in any given election there are going to be a lot of swing voters between CDU and SPD. Furthermore, if the situation stays like this, with grand coalition seemingly inevitable and Union parties with a comfortable marging of 6-12 points over SPD, some more tactically minded centrist voters could even decide to strengthen SPD instead of Union.

Newest poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen shows CDU/CSU at 38%, SPD 29%, Greens 14% and Linke 7%, while FDP, Pirates and all others each have 4%. So SPD-Greens would have no majority with 43 against 45, and grand coalition again emerges as the only possibility.

What I find remarkable is that currently all six national polling institutes have both FDP and Pirates at 4%, each and every of them. Guess that kind of agreement between all institutes has to represent both parties' actual support well.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on November 30, 2012, 07:37:21 am
Nah, when you compare everybody's final polls and the actual result, the actual result tends to be the mild outlier.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on December 03, 2012, 02:00:14 am
Karlsruhe/Mayor RESULTS
Turnout 42,2%
55,25% Dr Frank Mentrup (SPD/Gr/Pir/KAL)
35,40% Ingo Wellenreuther (CDU)
04,46% Friedemann Kalmbach (GfK)
02,36% Niko Fostiropoulos (Linke)
01,52% Jürgen Wenzel (Freie Wähler)
00,44% Michael Böhm (ind)
00,39% Sascha Toni Oehme (ind)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: LastVoter on December 03, 2012, 02:58:58 am
Could Die Linke voters strategically vote for Greens to get a left-wing coalition?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 03, 2012, 03:04:48 am
Could Die Linke voters strategically vote for Greens to get a left-wing coalition?

They could, but likely won't.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Iannis on December 03, 2012, 03:34:53 am
I'm seriously beginning to wonder if it's only in France where we have some kind of left and right that won't event hink of making a "grand coalition". It's like a plague for Nate's sake !

You might as well scrap governments and have all managed by administrations rather than have grand coalitions. These things are the cancer of the political landscape.

You know, in the majority of countries it's considered a democracy only if the government represents 50% of voters, or at least 45%, not certainly 35-40%


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on December 03, 2012, 03:48:07 am
^That renders every UK government since 1970 (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/6e/UK_parliamentary_elections_from_1950_graph.png) undemocratic.

Could Die Linke voters strategically vote for Greens to get a left-wing coalition?

Not if they want to keep their party.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 05, 2012, 03:20:57 am
CDU has rejected an internal party motion to equalize tax benefits between marriage and same-sex partnerships.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 05, 2012, 07:29:22 am
Lots of new polls!

Infratest dimap 05.12.2012
Hessen (State Election):

CDU 36%
SPD 31%
Grüne 18%
Linke 5%

FDP 4%
Piraten 3%

Government 36%, Opposition  54% (excluding parties without representation)

---> SPD/Green majority, it's not even close. (49-41)



GMS 04.12.2012
Niedersachsen (State Election):

CDU 41%
SPD 32%
Grüne 13%

FDP 4%
Piraten 4%
Linke 3%

Government 41, Opposition 45 (exclusing parties without representation)

---> SPD/Green majority, (45-41), although it's rather close and the FDP getting 1% more would make it a tied race. Kind of embarrassing for a state that really should be a lot better for social democrats.



Forsa 05.12.2012
Federal Election: Bundestag

CDU/CSU 37%
SPD 26%
Grüne 16%
Linke 7%

FDP 4%
Piraten 4%

Government 37, Opposition 49 (excluding parties without representation)

---> SPD/Green slightly short of a majority (42-44), although it would be out of reach if the FDP got back over the threshold.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 05, 2012, 04:35:36 pm
Infratest dimap on Berlin state level:

CDU 26%
SPD 25%
Grüne 20%
Linke 14%
Piraten 7%

FDP 2%


Government (SPD/CDU) 51%, Opposition 41%

Not enough for SPD-Green (45-47). Wowereit might want that if the CDU gets 1st place...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Kitteh on December 05, 2012, 04:51:18 pm
Is Red-Red-Green considered a viable option in Berlin? I'm assuming because of the Red-Red coalition before 2011 that the SPD there is not against deals with Die Linke.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 05, 2012, 05:31:44 pm
Is Red-Red-Green considered a viable option in Berlin? I'm assuming because of the Red-Red coalition before 2011 that the SPD there is not against deals with Die Linke.

Theoretically, although Wowereit turned down Red-Green last year.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: politicus on December 06, 2012, 11:40:32 am
^That renders every UK government since 1970 (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/6e/UK_parliamentary_elections_from_1950_graph.png) undemocratic.

Could Die Linke voters strategically vote for Greens to get a left-wing coalition?

Not if they want to keep their party.
Which is pretty much how we view it on the Continent.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Trounce-'em Theresa on December 06, 2012, 11:52:51 am
^That renders every UK government since 1970 (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/6e/UK_parliamentary_elections_from_1950_graph.png) undemocratic.

The current government 'represents' 59.1% of the voters. Granted it's not very good representation.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 06, 2012, 12:36:56 pm
The attitude on display here contributed greatly to the total corruption of Italian politics in the DC era. Just saying.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DC Al Fine on December 06, 2012, 01:40:01 pm
The attitude on display here contributed greatly to the total corruption of Italian politics in the DC era. Just saying.
Could you elaborate for those who don't know Italian politics?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 06, 2012, 01:59:30 pm
No, I'm in one of those moods where I can't be bothered with elaboration. Might do later, though.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on December 06, 2012, 03:29:01 pm
The attitude on display here contributed greatly to the total corruption of Italian politics in the DC era. Just saying.
Could you elaborate for those who don't know Italian politics?

Italy used full-PR without threshold from 1946 to 1994. Obviously no party had an absolute majority, but the two strongest parties were christian democrats (DC) and communists (PCI). Basically all the smaller parties gathered around DC in an unideological "grand coalition" (even the Socialists joined in the 1960s), leaving communists and neofascists as the only real opposition. This lasted for almost 50 years, until all those parties suddenly collapsed in the early 1990s following corruption investigations.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on December 06, 2012, 04:17:04 pm
^That renders every UK government since 1970 (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/6e/UK_parliamentary_elections_from_1950_graph.png) undemocratic.

The current government 'represents' 59.1% of the voters. Granted it's not very good representation.

Yeah, it's fair to say the current government bucks the trend on those terms, for a number of reasons however I'm not convinced it's any more democratic (I think I'd be in the majority arguing it's less so - and I'm someone who largely envies continental PR coalitions).


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: You kip if you want to... on December 06, 2012, 08:25:21 pm
^That renders every UK government since 1970 (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/6e/UK_parliamentary_elections_from_1950_graph.png) undemocratic.

The current government 'represents' 59.1% of the voters. Granted it's not very good representation.

Yeah, it's fair to say the current government bucks the trend on those terms, for a number of reasons however I'm not convinced it's any more democratic (I think I'd be in the majority arguing it's less so - and I'm someone who largely envies continental PR coalitions).

Of course it's less democratic. 59.1% may have voted for the governing parties but neither voted for a coalition or with the idea or assumption of a Conservative-Liberal coalition as they put their cross on the ballot paper. And even worse again, the coalition is governing not on a manifesto, but on a coalition agreement which didn't even exist when Britain voted.

That's how our coalition's different from a European one. We just assumed the Tories would get elected to a minority and stumble on for a few months until another election. European countries (I presume), like Germany, make assumptions about what tone of government their vote will produce - Green voters knowing that their vote will probably be used to form a red-green government, FDP voters assuming a black-yellow.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on December 06, 2012, 09:10:48 pm
I did want to make the point that continental coalitions are much less awkward, mismatched, unexpected etc and often factored into their votes, but didn't have the time. Of course not all PR coalitions are as straightforward as Germany's; centre/liberal parties can and do hop between sides, but even then there's an expectancy of such, a diverse enough spectrum for those concerned to hop off to bolster their respective side if they don't trust the centrists to pick them, and crucially a direct relationship between votes and seats/consequent parliamentary make-up.

Contrast that to those voting Liberal in the South to keep the Tories out, well aware Labour are uncompetitive there - actually encouraged to by Liberal leaflets - were actually voting most effectively, and yet wound up as counted in that 59.1%.  Of course the Liberals could've justified the nonsensical coalition if they'd ensured some form of PR for the future to demonstrate not all coalitions have to be bastardised, but as that's been shot down so to will the abiding memory of coalitions.  One victory after another for Clegg and our democracy.  


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on December 07, 2012, 12:10:13 pm
Is Red-Red-Green considered a viable option in Berlin? I'm assuming because of the Red-Red coalition before 2011 that the SPD there is not against deals with Die Linke.

Theoretically, although Wowereit turned down Red-Green last year.

He also turned them down back in 2006. Wowereit seems to despise the Greens.

Then again, considering his decreasing popularity both within and without his own party he may not be part of a future coalition anyway.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 07, 2012, 03:05:15 pm
Infratest Dimap: FEDERAL

CDU 39
SPD 30
Grüne 14
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 3

SPD/Green close but not enough. (44-46)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 07, 2012, 03:06:31 pm
So now there are 2 polls showing Red-Green down only 2%, with FDP and Pirates out.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Kitteh on December 07, 2012, 05:41:00 pm
I would imagine that if Red-Green is a possibility the SPD will choose that over a grand coalition, no? At least for the fact that Steinbruek would get to be chancellor.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on December 07, 2012, 06:56:24 pm
I would imagine that if Red-Green is a possibility the SPD will choose that over a grand coalition, no? At least for the fact that Steinbruek would get to be chancellor.

Of course they will. That's their official campaign strategy. The Green one too.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 07, 2012, 06:58:13 pm
I would imagine that if Red-Green is a possibility the SPD will choose that over a grand coalition, no? At least for the fact that Steinbruek would get to be chancellor.

Yes, but it's only really realistic if the FDP stays out...which I still seriously doubt.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 12, 2012, 03:19:59 pm
New Bundestag polls:

Emnid 09.12.2012 (Federal)

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 28
Grüne 14
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 3

SPD/Green with no majority. (42-47)



Forsa 12.12.2012 (Federal):

CDU/CSU 38
SPD 27
Grüne 14
Linke 8

FDP 4
Piraten 4

SPD/Green with no majority. (41-46)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on December 13, 2012, 08:41:38 am
I notice that as the Pirate "wave" recedes, support for the CDU is rising. Are there really that many Pirate/CDU switchers?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 13, 2012, 12:04:48 pm
I notice that as the Pirate "wave" recedes, support for the CDU is rising. Are there really that many Pirate/CDU switchers?

I doubt the two developments have anything to do with each other. I can imagine Pirates supporting basically any other party more than the CDU.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon on December 13, 2012, 12:23:02 pm
I notice that as the Pirate "wave" recedes, support for the CDU is rising. Are there really that many Pirate/CDU switchers?

I doubt the two developments have anything to do with each other. I can imagine Pirates supporting basically any other party more than the CDU.

Well, many people supported the Pirates because it was a very popular thing to do at the time (you could say a "fad"). And Angela Merkel is popular too!

Some of the more apolitical swing voters tend to support the party who gets the greatest news coverage. The Pirates certainly attracted many people from that group.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 14, 2012, 11:13:17 am
FGW/ZDF (Federal election), 14.12.2012

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 30
Grüne 13
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 3


SPD/Grüne without a majority (43-47).


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DC Al Fine on December 14, 2012, 12:02:31 pm
40% is excellent in an MMP system, yes?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 14, 2012, 12:08:05 pm
Not an excellent result, historically at least.

But it'd still be their strongest showing since 1994. And rather impressive for modern times.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on December 14, 2012, 08:43:11 pm
It's rather less impressive when they're the only receptacle for Rightist votes now the FDP won't make it back into parliament. I'd like to see some seat projections.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Solitude Without a Window on December 14, 2012, 08:44:07 pm
Sadly, I'm willing to bet that the FDP will eventually make it.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑ on December 14, 2012, 08:51:22 pm
You'd think though that any eventual rise would come from the CDU/CSU VI anyway.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 15, 2012, 06:37:48 am
Sadly, I'm willing to bet that the FDP will eventually make it.

They'll make it. Tactical votes will save them.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on December 15, 2012, 06:36:14 pm
What would motivate a CDU voter to cast a "tactical" vote to save the FDP? Its not as if there is the slightest chance that even if the FDP gets into the Bundestag there will anything close to a majority for CDU/FDP (what I like to call "the bumblebee coalition") - anyways you sl;ice it there will be a CDU/SPD "grand coalition" and the only question mark is in what proportion the CDU and SPD each get cabinet portfolios.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 15, 2012, 06:48:49 pm
What would motivate a CDU voter to cast a "tactical" vote to save the FDP? Its not as if there is the slightest chance that even if the FDP gets into the Bundestag there will anything close to a majority for CDU/FDP (what I like to call "the bumblebee coalition") - anyways you sl;ice it there will be a CDU/SPD "grand coalition" and the only question mark is in what proportion the CDU and SPD each get cabinet portfolios.

You're right, but I'm not sure the average politically uninterested voter knows and understands this. I think a lot of voters think of "CDU/FDP" as their desired government and....enough.....will vote tactically. We're only talking about enough to get them from 4 to 5%.

Not to mention that a vote for the FDP also makes an SPD/Green majority virtually impossible. So if you do know something about the current political situation and you want the CDU in government, that could make sense, in order to get a grand coalition rather than the left-wing majority.



Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: DL on December 15, 2012, 07:07:43 pm
I suppose that another by-product of the FDP slipping back into parliament is it would make it less likely that a CDU/Green coalition could be formed...if that is your top priority...but realistically just about the only way Germany gets a red/green coalition is it the FDP, the Pirates AND the Linke fail to clear the 5% hurdle!


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 15, 2012, 07:15:34 pm
I suppose that another by-product of the FDP slipping back into parliament is it would make it less likely that a CDU/Green coalition could be formed...if that is your top priority...but realistically just about the only way Germany gets a red/green coalition is it the FDP, the Pirates AND the Linke fail to clear the 5% hurdle!

Red/Green is only down by 3-5% even with Linke in. Not a likely scenario, but not impossible.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 16, 2012, 06:57:18 am
What would motivate a CDU voter to cast a "tactical" vote to save the FDP? Its not as if there is the slightest chance that even if the FDP gets into the Bundestag there will anything close to a majority for CDU/FDP (what I like to call "the bumblebee coalition")
The correct term is Tigerente (http://www.kinderhospiz-balthasar.de/uploads/pics/kj01tigerente.jpg).


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: ZuWo on December 16, 2012, 08:28:11 am
I think it's hilarious that despite the unpopularity of the governing coalition the CDU and FDP combined still manage to attract as much support as the red-green alternative percentage-wise.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: politicus on December 16, 2012, 08:46:18 am
Well, the left side (SPD, Greens, Linke) still leads the right side (CDU, FDP) pretty clearly.
Only the paria status of Die Linke in German politics and the existence of the "youth populist"/pseudo-libertarian Pirates blurs the picture.
 


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Franzl on December 16, 2012, 08:48:13 am
Well, the left side (SPD, Greens, Linke) still leads the right side (CDU, FDP) pretty clearly.
Only the paria status of Die Linke in German politics and the existence of the "youth populist"/pseudo-libertarian Pirates blurs the picture.
 

I would be shocked if the Pirates made it into the Bundestag at this point.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: You kip if you want to... on December 16, 2012, 11:09:38 am
I think it's hilarious that despite the unpopularity of the governing coalition the CDU and FDP combined still manage to attract as much support as the red-green alternative percentage-wise.

It's all about Merkel.


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: politicus on December 16, 2012, 12:20:03 pm
Well, the left side (SPD, Greens, Linke) still leads the right side (CDU, FDP) pretty clearly.
Only the paria status of Die Linke in German politics and the existence of the "youth populist"/pseudo-libertarian Pirates blurs the picture.
I would be shocked if the Pirates made it into the Bundestag at this point.
Me too, but they are still blurring the polls ;)


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on December 16, 2012, 04:58:02 pm
Is there any chance Linke-supporters could be convinced to support SDP or the Greens in order to stop a Grand Coalition?


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: Iannis on December 17, 2012, 06:25:01 am
I think it's hilarious that despite the unpopularity of the governing coalition the CDU and FDP combined still manage to attract as much support as the red-green alternative percentage-wise.

Maybe because it's not so unpopular...


Title: Re: 2012 Elections in Germany
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 17, 2012, 10:14:06 am
I think it's hilarious that despite the unpopularity of the governing coalition the CDU and FDP combined still manage to attract as much support as the red-green alternative percentage-wise.

Maybe because it's not so unpopular...
No, because the mainstream opposition is unattractive. :)