Talk Elections

We have heard from our famed first town- Dixville Notch- and not much else.

Moving this to where it belongs...


Paul will still do well..it'll probably be close among Huntsman, Paul, and Romney here. Friend has always supported Huntsman.

I was about to say to make the same suggestion. I maintain that this election will be far closer than anyone expects- Romney will certainly not get above 35%.

High Indy turnout is presumably good for Huntsman, right? I haven't had time to look at any polling crosstabs. How was independent turnout for the GOP primary in '08?

Or it's good for Ron Paul.

College town won't be Huntsman's base; they'll be Paul's. Huntsman might come in second in some of them, but his base is elsewhere. Probably the Democratic western areas, maybe?

Well, this college town is in the Democratic western area, a minute from Vermont. LOL.

CNN here:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/nh

Associated Press here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/NH_Page_0110.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/NH_Page_0110.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

...

First results & the Exit Poll numbers can be expected shortly after 8pm EST (2am Europe).

Please sticky !

So at this point...who do we reckon is going to come in second?

We know who the winner will be.

Likely Paul, but Huntsman is not impossible. Huntsman would be far more interesting, as he is a credible candidate for president and not a cartoon character.

Huntsman could be a tremendous surprise or a huge flop.

Seconded. Also merge it with the other thread.

Rohmney's going to win again. Hopefully Saintly Rick won't go so high.

CNN's results page sucks. They don't even list all of the exciting minor candidates like Mr. Supreme. Sticking with the AP here.

Nearly forgot that today is the day of the primary.

TO THE ATLAS IRC!

Haha, so far Obama's gotten more votes than any GOP candidate.

I wonder how many votes Vermin Supreme will get.

Haha, the AP precinct-level results have Bachmann listed as a candidate but not Santorum.

GINGRICH LEADING

Lol @ all the people in the Democratic primary I've never heard of.

He's a credible candidate for president for the 1990s Democratic party. As a Republican? Not so much.

Can we merge the two threads?

Any early turnout buzz/rumblings yet?

Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich are said to gain an advantage due to their positioning on the ballot.

That's just plain sad.

How? They're right in the middle?

People on the bottom and the top generally benefit the most

I thought most of the polls closed at 7pm, while a few of them stayed open until 8pm?  If so, then we could start getting early results shortly after 7, but the networks won't call the state or release their exit polls until 8pm.

Bad sign for Huntsman. I was thinking he might dig into Paul's youth support from liberals and snatch a second place, but it looks like he's going to have to count on traditional red meat Republicans instead.

Early exit data:

link (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_GOP_CAMPAIGN_ATTITUDES?SITE=ILROR&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT)

The ECONOMY?

Solid Perry.

Looks like exit polling shows independents are equally dividing their support between Romney, Huntsman, and Paul.

Fox says independents are going 30% Romney, 29% Paul

EDIT:
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/287749/romney-paul-see-strong-turnout-derry-robert-costa

I hate to sound like a Mitt fanboy, but that's first wave...a lot of people who work 9-5 + commute just started voting and they'll be solid Romney.  Paul should get 20% overall though if turnout is really 50% independents.

We'll see. Romney's almost certainly gonna win, but Paul could overperform with the independents. Meanwhile, from what I've seen coming out of New Hampshire, Huntsman ain't doin' so hot. Maybe it's because what I've been getting is mostly from the south and far north, but that's the impression. Thus, I'm going to officially call this and hope I'm right: Romney first, Paul second, Huntsman third.

And 27% Huntsman.  The independents are making up 44% of the vote.  Romney is leading self identified conservatives.

Is there a way to watch the TV on the computer?

Its looking like it will be a good night for Paul and a bad one for Huntsman (and therefore a good night for Romney as well).

I'd say it is too early yet to say it's good for Paul and bad for Huntsman. 30% Romney, 29% Paul and 27% Huntsman (is it that?) among independents are the only real numbers we've got, it seems. Huntsman doing as good among independents as Paul is, if anything, good for him. I don't think we have enough infor to predict, who'd be the second and who'd be the third.

link (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_GOP_CAMPAIGN_ATTITUDES?SITE=ILROR&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT)

"Leaked" exit polls numbers are never something to read too much into. Just ask President Kerry.

It was also said that Paul is utterly crushing the opposition among the under 30 demographic, which I was expecting Huntsman to at least contest, and various on the ground sources are saying that Huntsman has little in the way of support.

I might be wrong for sure, maybe Huntsman is hiding supporters in his left pocket (or maybe in Cheshire), but the more I see the info coming in the more it looks like Huntsman ain't coming second.

In Italy too We are ready for the NH Primaries!

http://www.termometropolitico.it/primarie-usa-tutto-il-new-hampshire-minuto-per-minuto-10012012-diretta/

I'm here now, everything is going to be alright. :)

Guys, the first wave of official entrance polls from last week in Iowa showed Paul winning with 24-25%. I wouldn't infer too much about these (just as a general rule).

Just like I said for Iowa, I'm not going to stay up past midnight.

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/nh

Sorry, but NH is still voting but ther is already 19 votes casted?

Two towns go early.

Dixville Notch and other such silliness

Thank You!

For what it's worth, the Sec. of State of NH is predicting "record turn-out" and MSNBC just flashed an expected 250k voters casting ballots in the GOP primary and 75K in the Democratic primary. They didn't cite it, of course.

Fox, CNN, and MSNBC will likely have shows on devoted to it. Bill O'Reilly, Rachel Maddow and the other normal programs are canceled. I think most channels start at 7:00 PM.

Exit polls are coming in.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jWIolyFHyxrRR3C2t1Jk2LSzj6UA?docId=fe4ec1025f054b388f0144a56391b182 (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jWIolyFHyxrRR3C2t1Jk2LSzj6UA?docId=fe4ec1025f054b388f0144a56391b182)

And they aren't surprising.

I am now projecting that Mitt Romney has won the New Hampshire primary.

Thanks, tips!

2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th are too close to call at this time.

It annoys me that MSNBC still has Bachmann listed on TV in the results tab.

Also, 54% of voters identify as "conservative"/46% as "moderate/liberal", for what it's worth.

I imagine she's still on the ballot.

True, but so are a bunch of other candidates that aren't on the screen. Roemer will probably get more votes than her.

Doubtful; I'm betting she even ends up polling better than Perry. She's the only high-name recognition candidate anywhere near the top of the ballot (besides Cain I guess, but he's been out of the race for a lot longer).

That would be awesome.  I'm hoping Perry does as poorly as possible.

I heard that a write-in movement for Hillary could place second (and by that, 96% for Obama, 3% for Hillary, and 1% for others) in the Democratic primary.

Google has a live results map by NH towns: http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results ;D

Why does Google feel the need to do frickin' everything?

YES  :D

Nice. I hadn't found a map by town yet.

Because they do (almost) everything better than everyone else?

Klecly believes this will be an interesting race for second place.


Santorum 2012!

That tracks very well with the crosstabs of the last PPP poll, which had 41% Independents and out of them ca. 27% for Romney, 24% for Paul and 23% for Huntsman.

Does anyone have a 2008 town by town map or table?

8

Rick Perry is beat by Roemer in a Manchester ward preliminary count.

Results were:
Mitt Romney 44%
Jon Huntsman 19%
(don't remember the rest)

()

Deservedly.

Despite not prefering either of them, I hope Huntsman and Paul do very well to take away from Romney

Votes coming in from Hillsborough; Romney 38%, Paul 23%, Huntsman 16%, Gingrich 12%, Santorum 10% there. Obama at 80%.

According to Politico, Roemer is leading Perry.

Politico saying write ins are at 12% in the Democratic primary.

This race is already so over.

PS: Obama at only 80% in these early numbers.

Where is possible find a site with live results of the Primaries where is casted the votes for Roemer too?
Thanks!

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/Primary/NH (http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/Primary/NH)

The results coming in are from Manchester.

On that map blue is McCain correct?

So is Krager. =D

11% in the Democratic primary is for Hillary.

Yes

It's a ward in Manchester.  Surprised by how well Paul is doing there.


http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

Obama down to 76%.

Requests for strengths, swings, other metrics in town maps?

Dem results coming in faster for some reason; Obama down to 74%.

Fewer votes.

Holy crap, sort of forgot about the whole write-in thing.

Romney 35%, Paul 27%, Huntsman 14% overall now.

Ah, thank you. :)

CNN Exit Poll says 47% are Indies and 4% Democrats and just 49% Republicans.

Paul wins 29% of Independents, which means he's at 15% statewide alone from Independents and Democrats. If he gets 10% with Republicans, he's already @ 20%.

George Bush got 79.55% in 2004, just fyi

Thank You!

This will soon start getting very boring. I'll probably go to bed at 3am here already (9pm your time).

CNN seems to be ahead to the others.

In slightly interesting news, I believe with these current results, Vermin Supreme has already surpassed his previous total of 47 in New Hampshire. He's now at 63 votes.

These are some sh**tty numbers for Obama ...

Looks like Paul might have a hell of a night.

I'm considering leaving as soon as Romney is projected the winner in about 20 minutes...

Randall Terry is at 3%. 50 more votes than Perry.

"All anecdotal but interviews with Nashua Ward 1 voters found three planning to vote for Romney who switched to Huntsman. "

Signs of a trend?

Not in Manchester, at least.

Write-Ins = Hillary ?

(Will they count the Write-Ins individually or just all together ?)

So it's looking like the polls won't be dramatically wrong...

Gingrich is leading Santorum so far, could spell bad news for his momentum.

Rockingham starting to come in.

No, not there.

Obama at 72%. Can you imagine if he ends up under 70% tonight? Holy crap.

Although the independent vote in NH is interesting, it will also be interesting to see how the conservatives vote. In Iowa they split between Santorum, Perry and Gingrich.

Obama needs to drop out. It's time to let Vermin Supreme lead the ticket in 2012.

Only most of Manchester, Dixville Notch, and Harts Location have reported.

Paul leading in Merrimack County at the moment.

Huntsmentum has slowed apparently

I have 34 reported posts, 20 moderated posts, and 18 infraction points.

That is my prediction for the final result.

The results seem to be solely Manchester right now.

Darcy Richardson is bombing. I thought he would be the strongest Obama opponent.

Looks like the Paul Revolution is back on track.

Where is everyone seeing the Dem primary results?

And Strafford County too.

CNN, AP, Politico...

I am wondering why there are so many write-ins on the democratic side. Disapproval of Obama? Nostalgic support for Hillary (are the write ins really for Hillary?)...

Go Ron Paul! Looking good for him. I wonder if Iowa actually generated momentum.

Paul's lead in Strafford comes from Concord.

Could Paul end up closer to Romney than he is to Huntsman? That would be impressive.

The fact that Romney can't break 40% in NEW HAMPSHIRE of all places is a clear sign that the base is uneasy with him.

Believe it or not, if these results stay like they are right now then Zogby will have the best poll out there ... ;)

They had Romney at 38% and Paul at 24%.

All others had Paul at only 16-18% ...

Rick Perry 97
Vermin Supreme 86

LET'S GO, VERMIN. LET'S GO!

Oh, I give up. :(

Can someone put a link to the Dem results on here please?

The west hasn't reported yet. Don't give up so soon.

CNN using pink for Paul and red for Romney is stupid. It creates no contrast on the map. A strong yellow would be better.

The night is young. Hopefully Huntsman can improve once the West reports in.

McCain didn't break 40% either in any of the initial primary states. It doesn't mean anything. Romney has 38% in a split field. That is pretty good.

Huntsman is second in Grafton so far; doing better than Paul.

Right now (at least for what I'm seeing), Paul's 11 away from Romney, and 10 away from Huntsman.

http://www.wmur.com/new-hampshire-primary-extended-coverage/30132728/detail.html

Just scroll down for the Dem numbers.

AP has a cleaner layout, IMO: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_state/NH_Page_0110.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Thank you both!

Paul now leading in Coos, no longer in Merrimack or Strafford.

Basically all that's in so far is Manchester, so it's a little early to be making bold pronouncements.

We need to keep in mind that the vast majority of the results so far are from Hillsborough County, which is the sort of place that is tailor-made for Romney. It is full of people who moved out to the outermost ring of Boston exurbs because 'Taxachusetts'.

Romney is performing roughly 3%-4% better than 2008 so far in Manchester and Chester, which suggests a 35%-36% showing, depending on turnout, and well, other sections of the state.  :P

Romney lost Manchester in 2008.

Obama is back up to 79%; he's doing well upstate.

I understand, I'm just running Romney numbers against towns.  Chester was 3.5% better than 2008.

Rick Perry 116
Vermin Supreme 104

()

Hillsborough was still his concentration of support in the state.

Also, Vermin Supreme is at 4.1% in Carroll County.

Watching CNN. I think they will call it for Romney in 5 minutes.

Merrimack just dumped some; Romney only at 31% there with Huntsman 23% and Paul 25%.

It sounds like CNN will make a projection right at 8pm. Seems to be a clear victory for Romney.

Kind of goes without saying, but if Huntsman is at 15% at the end of the night he's done.

Huntsman won the town of Ellsworth in Grafton.

Ron Paul's support is between 22-30 throughout the counties. I suppose that's good. Hopefully we can win Coos county to make a better map.

Very interesting to see if Romney can break 37%, that's what McCain got and I think that is the threshold for a convincing win.

FF!

It will be called almost 7 hours before Iowa was called. :)

Obama seems to do well outside of HB, so he'll soon fight with Bill Clinton's 84% in 1996.

Paul and Huntsman have won towns, so that'll be three candidates at least.

Huntsman passed Paul in Merrimack.

Google has towns, who has counties? CNN?

I've been to Ellsworth. It's tiny, but a really nice place. Lots of ponds and cabins and such.

Also, Politico has counties.

CNN, Politico, Fox News

Romney projected winner.

It's over.

Yep CNN made its projection for Romney

Well that's that....

Now the real fight begins.

Not that Romney winning was ever in doubt...

Now, we'll have to see who comes in second and third.  That's the real battle.

Fox projected Paul 2nd Hntsman 3rd

Is this really a victory for Romney, though?

It's not over

Santorum right at the cusp of not making double digits (without rounding, that is).

You know what I meant.

So did Fox.

I'm pretty sure NH counts the write-ins individually (as they did in 1996) and I think a lot of write-ins on the DEM side will by Hillary, Romney and Paul votes.

Guys- Fox called Paul 2nd and Huntsman 3rd

This lead isn't as healthy as everyone expected.

What time can we expect a withdrawal from Jon Huntsman?

CNN Exit Poll

Romney 36%
Paul 23%
Huntsman 18%

Romney underperformed.

For me, Romney under 40% is a failure. Approaching 35%, like he is, is most amusing.

Huntsman is underperforming our expecations... too bad

The media is going to coronate Romney now, but yeah, 35% for Romney is pathetic.

Huntsman 5th amoung GOP voters...

I really want to see the Dartmouth vote.

Fox announces spread will be double digits

Meanwhile, Obama is back at 80%.

Paul winning Cheshire early, Huntsman strong in Sullivan.

FOX is biased against Romney. Look at the picture they have of him on the site.

Obama at 81% now.

Manchester and Chester will both be about 3.5%, but upstate is a tad better (though so few people), so probably closer to 36%.

It seems Huntsman will have preformed best in the west of the state as opposed to the south.

Looks like I get my 2 points.

Romney won already? Wow.

Not surprising. Most Republicans don't like him, and almost all his support is from Independents and Democrats.

It would have been more of a surprise if he hadn't...

Things look good for Romney

1) Back-to-back victories in Iowa and NH
2) 2nd place in Iowa practically disapears in NH
3) possible 2nd place in NH Ron Paul not a serious threat nationally
4) conservatives split
.
.
.

Looks like Romney will win NH with a smaller % than McCain. lol

CNN doing a live, real time South Carolina dial group for speeches.

Woooo!!! Let's go Hillary!!! Hold Obama below Bush's 04 primary result.

Huntsman will finish third or worse..dammit

This isn't a good result for Gingrich and santorum regardless of Romney's margin of victory. I can't see them winning SC with a result like that.

However, Huntsman could claim he "exceeded market expectations" considering he's outperformed almost polls.

Yeah, Romney winning all fifty states gets more and more likely by the day.

Lucky you. I updated my New Hampshire prediction to Lean Romney - >30%, but the stupid thing didn't take >:(.

Paul takes the lead in Carroll County.

Hah look at Perry!

Where else does Huntsman even have to go next? He's done.

Perry's beating Roemer. :(

I was expecting it to be mid 30's.

So far Romney is only breaking 40% in Rockingham. By a tiny amount. I am most amused.

Vermont? Rhode Island? Oregon? Outside of some states that have a large number of progressive voters, I don't see him having much of a shot of winning anything.

why, o sage?  other than the fact that nh voters are unpredictable.

I'm surprised how bad Perry did and how well Paul is doing.

Ughh. I want Santorum to outpoll Gingrich damn it!

Huntsman staffers according to CNN: If Huntsman finishes 3rd, any talk of a withdrawal is bullsh**t.

Paul down only 10 by CNN; Huntsman at 18%.

I think the new proportional representation rules for the early contests might be making people like Huntsman and Paul overestimate their chances of influencing the convention.

Why did Santorum even go to NH?

So, he can go SC and try to see if he can beat out Stephen Colbert?

Maybe you should look at the polls then.

Huntsman in SC would only hurt Romney...most likely.

I'm fine with where Romney's headed in New Hampshire - granted, it's not the 45% he was polling a week ago, but let's all keep in mind that Romney has been the center of almost all attacks of the past week there. I would have been surprised if Romney had been able to get over 40%. Where he's at now, winning this by double-digits, is certainly not a failure.

Wow Paul is up to 25%.

Huntsman's just spontaniously got up to interview with CNN, says he's heading to SC. Body language displaying clear disappointment.

"A solid, comfortable, confident position and we head south from here." - His words. He joining up in Newt's efforts to torpedo Mitt? He's the vote splitter that Newt (or Santorum) needs.

He got at least one delegate though. :)

Huntsman's rhetoric against Obama and Romney was hilarious.

Why? He has no chance there. He should go to Florida.

There were a lot of undecided voters; I thought some of them would move to the more conservative candidates:


It looks like Paul got most of them.

Darcy Richardson is behind Supreme. A good night for Romney, and Paul :)

Definitely. Do you think Santorum will outpoll Gingrich?

Santorum is into single digits.

Florida is winner take all. It'd be pointless for him.

Gingrich is heading toward there too.

Yeah, I never expected Huntsman to quit with a 3rd place finish in New Hampshire.  It would be enough to keep him going till Florida and hope for a slightly thinned out field after South Carolina.  He won't last long after Florida, of course, if at all.

I don't believe him, but I was positive that Perry would withdraw after his first awkward caucus-night interview.

But obviously Perry was supposed to get 8%, even though over 10 consecutive polls ALL had him at 1%.

Romney has won the nomination. It's over. Good night.

CNN projecting Paul will finish second. :(

Official. CNN projects:

Mitt - 1st
Paul - 2nd
Huntsman - 3rd

What a horrible event on my Dad's birthday. :(

You couldn't have realistically expected Santorum to finish in the top three. The state is just too libertarian with social issues.

Quite frankly, this Romney showing is close to being a disaster, as I term disasters (under 35%, within 10 points of opponent), though who knows how the media will portray it.

As always, the GOP nomination is never over until SC.

Romney now leading in all counties. :( :(

For anyone interested, you can go on Fox New's website and listen to the Romney victory speech. :) Ann is speaking right now, and is doing great, as usual.

I didn't. I was hoping for a Huntsman surprise or a closer race.

I don't see much chance for Perry. I can't imagine him staying in the race after tonight.

So Romney only got about 35%? Piss poor for the regional candidate who's supposed to be the frontrunner.

Huntsman: "We go South from here" lol

I'd love to see Mitt try and trump "Yes We Can" here. LOL.

Romney's collapsed 10 points in a week after winning Iowa. What an awful candidate this guy is.

Also his face is SOOOO punch-able.

He could win 99% and you Democrats would never be satisfied.

Why are they calling it so soon?

I'm not sure how a double-digit victory in a fractured field can be termed a disaster.  

Most of the Boston exurbs, where Romney should have his best showing, are still out.

I was looking for a shift to the conservative candidates by the undecided.  I'm surprised that the benefactor was Paul.

Of the top three GOP winners tonight, none are on the extreme right.

Exit polling. It's why safe states are usually called early on Election Night.

::) at the haters trying to dismiss this as a failure.

Mitt Romney has been brutally attacked for the past week, similar to what happened to Gingrich in Iowa. The only difference is, Mitt fought back and maintained the lead. Gingrich faltered and took a dismal 4th place.

You think 35% is a strong showing for him?

Looking at the exit polls, it seems that Romney is even doing better among the conservatives. 45% somewhat conservative 30% very conservative. Santorum seems to bee the pick for very conservatives, though.

Romney's sons have a raging clue.  
()

This is as good a time to mention that I genuinely don't understand how anybody can support or like Romney. Like, at all. I can with effort get into the sorts of mindspaces that support the other Republican candidates, but I cannot comprehend how any human being could look at or listen to Mitt Romney and decide 'there's a man I want running a country'.

This speech is soooooooooooooo boring. God Mitt, you're running for President, not Pope.

Considering the amount of attacks that have been thrown at him in the past week, yes.

but Paul still within 1% in Coos and Carroll

It's not over the Tea Party will stop him.

It is aggressively generic, to say the least.

That "Europe" place must be an awful, awful country, listening to Mitt Romney's speech here. I suspect their citizens are starving in the streets.

This is not as poor of a win as anti-Romney's are making it out to me. It's not as great as Romney supporters think it is.  It's in the middle.  I think it will still be an exciting 3 1/2 hours until Piers Morgan comes on at 11:00 pm CT.

"He lost our triple-A credit rating."

Okay, he has me laughing now.

Just like they would take back the US Senate in 2010. ::)

Looks like Santorum is pulling closer to Gingrich in recent returns, so 4th place might not be decided for a while.

It really is. He's the Matt Barkley of politicians.

I am no Rmney fan but this is a great speech

I think tonights winners are Romney, Clinton (if the 11% she got in write-ins is covered by the media) and Paul. A much better night then Iowa :)

You mean you don't pass dead bodies in the street going about your days in Germany?

Seriously? He's the one with a bajillion dollars in superPAC money attacking everybody else.

It's mindlessly stupid as far as the content is concerned.

Oh God, Romney. Just shut up.

or not

Eh, it's just "Europe sucks! USA! USA! USA!"

What a ridiculous speech... there's absolutely NOTHING substantive about it.

With all of this stuff Obama's done and he's going to be able to fix, they should love the government involvement in the economy.

This speech is incredibly generic, but it isn't awful. He'll need some new, clever lines for the General Election.

Apparently a list of right-wing platitudes is considered a victory speech these days.

The Android's settings were set to "long winded".

He comes off as being as so fake. His speech seems like a pastiche of a what one might consider a great speech. Hollow criticisms, and even hollower promises. He's just so... unlikable.

Expected, but still depressing...:(


Santorum 2012.

Dial group seemed to like Romney.

Now we get to hear RAWWWWNNN PAULLLL speak. BTW Romney's speech is fine. The Romney haters on this forum aren't reflective of the American electorate.

Still hope in Coos.

This is a much more substantive win than Romney got in Iowa.

Still, wasn't he supposed to be up by more than 20 points? 11 points is barely double digits..

I guess it is still way too early though.

This race is between the Romney business folks, the Paul libtards, and the Santorum SoCons. The rest may as well go home. Once, it's down to those three, it's Rick ftw.

In other words, it's basically the old NH dog-and-pony show.  The undecideds looked at the polls and, in typical NH fashion, decided they wanted the opposite of everyone else, saw that Paul was strongest in the polls and voted for him.

There are many people, myself included, who think Paul is far to the right of the other candidates, but that's not really important.

Neither's the GOP, so I don't get your point.

BTW... how does Romney do all of that AND boost the size and scope of the military?

So if Paul won Iowa, would he have won here?

What in the world is up with Belknap County?

That is one of the worst speeches I have ever seen. It was just bland and generic platitudes. There was absolutely no substance other than "America is great" and "we must defeat Obama."

Ladies and gentlemen, I believe the Republicans have renominated Thomas Dewey.

The military doesn't count. You should know that.

so how is Vermin Supreme vs. Rick Perry going rn?

Paul broke 40% in Alexandria.

It was a typical Romney speech.  Pretty boring.

Also everyone knows that the Republicans will immediately stop caring about deficits once they retake the White House.

Perry is running away with it, atm.

I said more or less the exact same thing precisely one minute after you in another thread.

I seem to remember Stephen Harper's speech in Calgary on election night last year being decent. Apparently Americans can't do that.


America!

Santorum won the town of Roxbury with 57%. Fourth candidate to win a town.

Everyone will have to start caring about deficits in the next few years.

I highly doubt Romney would turn the lights off of his campaign a month before the election like Dewey did. :P

Do you realize that the two states that have voted so far comprise a grand total of 10 electoral votes?  Puts the race in its place.  EARLY, but nearly OVER.

Santorum is catching up on Gingrich.

Looks like Santorum will pass Gingrich for fourth. :)

Romney's now up to 36% BTW.

It's a sad day for America when only one Protestant polls above 1% in a Republican primary.

You know, I've sort of tied my own personal fortunes with those of Huntsman's, that if he did well I would do well, and vice versa. It's crazy and rather superstitious, but it's allowed me to feel a great personal connect to these results. Thus, these results are depressing but at the same time motivating in that I would need to buck "fate's plans".

Well, imagine that: the press overhyped Jon Huntsman.

Seriously though, although a solid third place is obviously better than fourth, which looked like a possible placement for him not too long ago, I don't understand what the desire is to keep going. If he really finishes eight points behind Ron Paul in NH, where he's focused all of his attention thus far, he's not going anywhere in SC or FL.

You really take this game too seriously.

Ron Paul isn't protestant? I thought he was Baptist.

Looks like my 17% Hunstman prediction is holding up....

Huntsman won a second town: Easton, in Grafton, with 32% of the vote.

He is. But 4 of the Big

I really expected Mittens to do better...36% isn't much of a stronghold at all.

I wonder who the 37 Cain supporters are.

Precisely. ONE Protestant is polling over 1%. That ONE person is Ron Paul.

The Mormons have a majority of the vote. Very, very distressing.

Former mistresses?

Trolls.

Ron Paul?

Does it really matter? Plus Mormons are pretty much Protestants. I'm not sure how else you would characterize them. Christian-Other?

He's barely doing better than his 2008 performance, and he's been running for President for over 4 years.

They are not Christians, period.

Not really very impressive from Git Rhymney, but then he isn't, is he?


No.

I assumed he was referring to Perry, since Perry is at 1% right now. :P

Damn, he must feel really lame tonight. He was once polling 18% there.

Belknap finally reported some votes.

I cannot see Huntsman getting any kind of surge from this. Coming in third is not enough. South Caroline will not go for Huntsman. He may survive until Florida but it will still b difficult for him to place well there and that should be the end of him.

I want to see dial groups for Ron Paul...

Correct. Both Mormons and Protestants would take offense at that characterization.

Huntsman is following the highly successful campaign model of Rudy Giuliani.

So will Jon put it all on Florida now? Will he go down there and taught his opponents that he's waiting for them?

Here comes Paul.

The Champion of Liberty!

"PRESIDENT PAUL!  PRESIDENT PAUL!  PRESIDENT PAUL!"

Paul retakes lead in Cheshire!

Seeing more of a 37% number, as Romney is outperforming later results by more like a 5%-7% margin from 2008.

Anyone who lives in a community with a significant number of Mormons would laugh at the idea of them being Christian.

Surprising; you'd think that the likes of Wilmslow and Alderley Edge would be more Romney-type places.

Nice one Paul!!

Obama only has 64% of the vote in Belknap County.

hahah, Ron Paul is the best.

The token Mormon I know identifies as Christian and generally hangs out with the evangelicals (yes, Lancaster is so conservative that there's an evangelical clique in the high school)

Just had a flash of Paul running for president as a third party candidate

When will the slobbering start, Ron? You're running late.

Romney's up to 37% right now. A 13% lead on Paul. Gingrich leads Santorum by around 150 votes.

PRESIDENT PAUL, PRESIDENT PAUL, PRESIDENT PAUL!

Paul's definitely a better speaker than Romney.

YEAH! TAKE THAT FED!!!

"You know, from studying monetary policy..."

literally the best.

At least this speech is fun to watch.

See, this is what Romney needs to do. He needs to use non-stump speeches for victories. Paul only ever talks about the fed and wars and his speech is WAY more tailored to the occasion then Romney's was. At least he has many more victory speeches to practice.

No, Paul didn't win.  Sorry, but Paul is libertarian, not a classic right winger.

If Romney wins SC, it is over.

Hither and yon!

All Mormons identify as Christian.

KRISTALLNACHT! KRISTALLNACHT!

I really hope Huntsman spends his remaining time savaging Romney and exposing him for what he is- a lying, conviction-less, power-hungry fake. I really want to see more from him in the debates. He has nothing to lose. He won't lose me, that's for sure, no matter what he does.

Paul just passed his 2008 NH vote total.

Santorum is now only 54 votes behind Gingrich.

Yes and all non-Mormons here think they are part of a entirely separate religion or cult.

That's saying a lot.. considering this is who I think of when I see Ron Paul...

()

Paul came close to a Howard Dean moment  --Yarrrrwww

Not disagreeing on that, so long as Romney breaks through 30% nationally in a decisive manner, which would probably occur in that circumstance before someone else does likewise.

I must say this is a pretty good speech from Paul. I enjoyed the stuff on sticking to your conviction, I thought it was rather forceful.

That fits Perry more than Paul.

Ron Paul is rambling now...

Paul's crowd is amazing tonight. lol

Finally, Paul is finished speaking.  I wanna hear another bitter loser speech from Gingrich.

That was probably the best rally this entire primary.

I've never seen Paul so fired up. The little guy deserves his moment in the sun.

Ron Paul's speech was as good as he could do. He knows the media couldn't cut him off so he used it more as an unfiltered lecture. 

I'm wondering if it is worth staying up to watch the rest of the results come in....

Not in my head, lol

Paul loved doing that.  Focus groups were fairly okay with it.

LOL we get to hear Huntsman now.

Best Ron Paul speech I have ever heard. Im going to start pestering my parents to take me to his Florida primary speech (he wont win here)if it is in the Orlando-Miami corner of the state :)

Looks like Huntsman will win twice as many delegates as I thought. Otherwise, my NH prediction wasn't too shabby.

Vermin Supreme is beating Randall Terry

Huntsman won a third town: Nelson, in Cheshire, by one vote.

CNN saying there were bottles of beer on Huntsman's table...

I wonder if he will be drunk when he speaks.

That may be the most interesting speech he could ever give.

There must be one or two interesting bar fights in the area of Roxbury, Nelson and Sullivan.  :)  

That might be the first town with Romney in 4th (behind Santorum)

I didn't see the right falling apart so much; I though most of the undecideds would drift downward.

Huntsman out.  Perry out.  Gingrich and Santorum split the right in SC.

Yeah he seems pretty drunk.

"In the hunt"? Oh dear lord.

Huntsman

In the hunt?

Ticket to ride?

The reality, third place, 20 points behind the winner.

Immediately what I thought.

..."Country first"?

170 public events... and you still came third by 20%

It would be ironic if Huntsman came in second in SC, and Paul won ;)

Look at the South Carolina Response on Huntsman.

Got my tissues ready...

The final tally will be interesting to see tomorrow.  Right now, on Google, nobody below 3rd is above 10%.

Delighted with Paul's showing, looks like he'll be at 23%, slight slight chance that the southern counties which haven't reported that much will put him down to 22, which is still a good night. Great speech too, really energetic, really fun, and he talked about the issues unlike Romney, who did have a great speech but took a different approach.

Huntsman won 4th town: Hancock.

Here is what I said two days ago:


In terms of rankings, it is darn close to perfect.

Right now, if I were Romney, I'd be worried about Gingrich.

Romney is now in the high 30's, could push 40 by the end of the night.  He's 15% ahead of Ron Paul currently.  His night has gotten better as the evening has moved along.  There's still 49% of the vote left to come in.

Huntsman is making less sense than Paul.

Bring the troops home from Assghanistan!

Santorum lost his town to Paul. :(

It's an awful, awful and badly directed speech from Huntsman...

"It is time to bring the troops home from assghanistan!"

Sounds like a liquored up gameshow host.

I didn't watch Paul's speech, but this is probably worse than Romney's speech.

Huntsman is boozed up!

We even have fabulous private property in New Hampshire!!! LMFAO.

I love Huntsman. Too bad he isn't viable.

He not only talks like he's trashed, but he looks like he's stoned.  Just look at his eyes.

I put Paul on mute, lol

I was out of the room.

Paul up to 24 now, Huntsman looks drunk. Poor body language. He's dead in the water. 100% dead in the water.

Damn, John; did the bottles hold beer or baijiu?

Huntsman won another town by two others he already won.

I have to go somewhere, but I'm not leaving until I hear Gingrich...

Santorum has jumped into 4th...

Congrats, Phil.

I figured that was a typo.  Santorum supposedly received 17 more votes than were cast in 2008, which seemed too good to be true.  50 was really 5, putting Santorum in fourth.

A respectable result for Santorum considering he was within the margin of error a few weeks ago.

So where is assghanistan?

I put this in the Delegate thread, but current New Hampshire delegate counts are Romney 5, Paul 3, Huntsman 2 with 2 delegates still on the table.

Current Totals according to CNN.com are Romney 23, Paul 10, Santorum 8, Perry 4, Gingrich 3, Huntsman 2.

Yeah, Huntsman's motions were a bit too... fluid... for comfort. Interesting speech.

Romney's up to 38%, FWIW. It'd be ironic if he hit 40%, considering all the bashing that's been going on here, saying he's a complete failure for NOT breaking 40.

Santorum up! :)

Santorum just pulled ahead of Gingrich.

There's still 43% out, so it's definitely possible.

Well, Hillsborough is only 41% in and Mitt has 43% there so he may touch 40% yet.

Looking like neither Gingrich or Santorum will reach the threshold for a delegate.

Newt Gingrich is getting ready to speak in a few moments.

There's an outside chance of that happening.  Romney is cleaning up in the Boston exurbs, hitting 55% in one town (Hampton Falls).  And a lot of the Massachusetts border towns are out.  But other areas are out, too, so it's probably not likely.

Isn't the threshold 10%?  I don't remember what the other criteria are, but there's still 2 delegates on the table, and I assume that whoever finishes 4th will get one.

Huntsman won Canterbury.

If he doesn't hit 40%, 38 or 39% is definitely better than 34-35% where he started the night.

Neither has 10% at the moment.

Oh, I'll show you where Assghanistan is, Eraser.

Huntsman was lively. I didn't think his speech was bad at all.

Who cares if Romney gets under 40%? It's far more telling that the only people capable of defeating him for the nomination are barely in the double digits.

According to CNN.com, they both do.

They're rounding up.

Figured they were.

Paul has an outside shot at Grafton County. He's down 300 votes and the college areas haven't reported yet.

He also just retook the lead in Coos County.

Rove and Trippi call Romney the "presumptive nominee"

I'm sure he was uncomfortable coming from behind...

I guess the other 48 states and the other 99% of voters don't have a say in this?

The states in late March and beyond definitely don't.

I'm sure Romney will be the nominee.  But Iowa still has a week to certify its vote, doesn't it?  If they end up calling Santorum getting 12 more votes than Romney in Iowa, the narrative going into the South Carolina vote might not be so clear-cut.

Rick Santorum sounds so depressed for not finishing better in a state he didn't even compete in.

I don't know where this leaves us in SC besides Romney winning. Newt was probably in the best position there, but he finished 5th in NH. I suppose Santorum will fight it out with Newt, Perry and others, which will just meddle things further. All Romney needs is 29-30% and he will win it.

Decent speech from Rick...

There's still two weeks to go. Things can change.

All I know is at this point, I want that damned Romney to loose.

He competed there, and I'm sure he would have preferred to go into South Carolina either with a little more momentum or at least with Romney's stride a little broken.  The way it is, he doesn't so much get to go head-to-head against Romney in the next contest after the squeaker in Iowa, but instead his main competitor for the anti-Romney vote in South Carolina will be Gingrich.

Ugh Santorum's in fifth again. :(

I'm really not understanding where this opinion that I'm seeing on the news networks that Romney's speech was good and Huntsman's speech was bad comes from. My mother, who is a very staunch left-liberal who nonironically voted for Nader in 2000--and very well-informed, active in urban politics where that part of my family lives, and definitely not a soundbite voter--watched Huntsman's speech with me and said outright that she'd be proud to vote for him even in a general under different political circumstances. Romney's speech meanwhile reminded one of Dewey '48 and 'Agriculture is important. Rivers are full of fish. Our best days lie ahead'.

Then again, modern Republican primary electorate.

I can't wait to be in South Carolina in ten days.

Well good night folks. God bless us all, and may Mitt Romney go to hell.

Amen!

Damn it. Are those blue collar Catholic areas fully in yet?

:( come on Santorum!

Santorum up fourteen votes!

Oh, God. Iowa - Part II

Gingrich back in 4th place.

Santorum-Gingrich is as close as Santorum Romney.

Well that's it for me tonight.

Posted my thoughts on the primary to the blog (yourelection.net).

Now it's time for bed.

I've never been to southeast New Hampshire, but these results make it seem like a truly, truly awful place.

Newt ahead by 100 votes.  :(

I was there once, dullest place I saw in America. And I've been to most of the major towns and cities on the east coast.

Wait! Rick is back ahead!

Can't be worse than Florida, can it?

Not anymore.

Huntsman won his 7th town.

Those Ivy League sumabitches in Dartmouth better come in big for the RON PAUL REVOLUTION.

Uh, yeah. He is.

Between Hanover and Lebanon, Paul could easily win Grafton County. About 2,500 votes there last time, and there's about a 300 vote margin in the county as of now. Eight total towns left in Grafton.

There are three towns left out in Coos and Paul has about a 50 vote lead.

Santorum must have gravitational effects or something -- he always finishes within 1% of the nearest competitor. 

Portsmouth is beautiful. I think you'd like it.

He just bounced back.  

It'd be so funny if Gingrich beat Santorum with exactly 8 votes >:D

Romney at 40% in Belknap; they must like that he has a lakehouse there.

Yeah, Portsmouth is actually quite lovely, and the area right around Manchester isn't bad. Nashua, though, and the area along the Massachusetts border in general, is pretty much exactly as argentarius describes it.


A lot of the time it can seem like every rich person in New England has a lake house in Belknap County. If they don't it's because they have a beach house in Plymouth County or the upper Cape instead.

Gingrich is back up.  I think he pulls fourth.

51.6% in Wolfeboro, the town home to the Romneys' summer abode.

I was wondering about that. He did well there in 2008 too.

Interesting that Merrimack is Huntsman's best county. I would have guessed Sullivan or Cheshire. Unsurprised by Coös.

It's interesting that we are not going to lose anybody after New Hampshire.  All 6 candidates are staying in to South Carolina and possibly through Florida, as well.  It is very possible we may not have another drop out until February.

Aren't you a Hoya, though? I'd like to introduce you to Mr. Kettle... :P

Boring. And Perry even beat Roemer. :(

where are those supposed to be exactly?

Romney is up to 39%, 16% ahead of Paul with 23% left to come in.

How is Vermin Supreme doing?

I would love to get my +2 Points, but I'm not holding my breath.

Dartmouth voted for Huntsman, not Paul.

What votes are still out?

Back down to 38.

The most votes still out are in Belknap, Rockingham (both very good Romney counties), Sullivan, and Cheshire (both fairly bad ones).

I haven't been to most of Florida, just spent the whole time in Orlando and from what I saw there was very little going on but at least in Florida the weather's exciting, unlike Southern New Hampshire.

Let's hope the college vote comes in soon so I can sleep. 3:45 am here. Thanks for all the town updates while everyone else is just watching the media analysis.

So, is that pretty much a wash to keep Romney in the high 30s?

Hanover voted 39% Huntsman. Paul only got 14%.

All of Keene, Lebanon and Berlin, plus about 5 towns on the NH-Massachusetts border.  UNH's Durham is also out along with random towns throughout the state.

Edit: Durham just reported.  Romney won, followed by Huntsman and Paul.

Ah well. Delighted with 23% anyway. Also looking like he's getting semi-competitive in other states.

More or less, yeah.

If Paul holds his lead in Berlin, he wins Coos County.

Durham just came in, 40% Romney, 27% Huntsman, 20% Paul.

College kids really dropped the ball on this one.

I don't think that Huntsman ending his campaign is out of the question.

Once you get off the campus Durham's not exactly very college-town-ish, really.

I don't think he'll drop out now.  He's too drunk to quit. :P

I think he will wait at least until after South Carolina possibly Florida where he stands his next best chance.

We'll see how he feels in the morning.

Though he looks to get 17%, which isn't that far below expectations really.

Folks, I'm going to bed.  I've been up since before 5:00 am and it's now 10:00 pm, plus it was a long, busy day at work.  I'll catch up on this thread when I wake up in the morning.

I'm calling Coos County for Paul. Romney can't make up 100 votes in two towns that will probably combine for just over 100.

Hopefully Huntsman stays in until Nevada to siphon some Mormon votes from Romney and help Paul win the caucus.

Laconia also hasn't reported.

Laconia and Keene will probably be a wash. Paul and Huntsman love Cheshire County, and Cheshire County loves Paul and Huntsman.

Only way I could see Huntsman beating Romney in Florida is if Romney spontaneously combusts in the next few weeks. Even then its even money that Romney would still get more votes.

Preliminary map.

()

Nashua just came in, heavily for Romney.  Gingrich just went up as well.

Romney's getting closer and closer to 40% and most of what's out is Rockingham, unfortunately. I don't want to be robbed of 2 points for the second straight week. :(

For a while there it was looking like Romney might fall below 38%. :(

Romney at 39%.  :D

I'm really not convinced Romney gets much higher than this, honestly. The relevant parts of Rockingham aren't exactly bustling hubs.

Obama seems to have settled at about 82%.

It's looking less likely Santorum can beat Gingrich.

Ugh. Newt is surely in fourth now. Damn.

It is interesting and kind of amazing that whether you finish fourth or fifth with 9% of the vote, and by an eyelash, is of much significance.

Then again, perhaps it isn't.

For evangelical Protestants in the southern primaries, it is notable that save for Bachmann and Perry, there isn't a Protestant in the field to appeal to them.  Both Santorum and Gingrich are Catholic.

CNN has Romney at 40%. I'm guess that's rounded up though.

NO! Romney at 40%

It's rounded up, I think.

Is Gingrich somehow not in fact a Catholic of convenience? If so, I seem to have missed that.

Well Gingrich is "Catholic." ;)

Romney's at 39.5%, at the moment. Very little left above that though.

:D

I almost hope he ends up 8 votes short of 40%.

Huntsman won Keene, his eight town.

I hope he beats it, because I want to go 4/4... :P

Noooo, if Romney breaks 40% I lose a point. :(

So is it possible that Paul and Romney end up being the only two to have delegates in both of the first two states?

I just got home from work, and am trying to figure out who is gaining delegates.

Good thing though is a lot of precincts have to come in from the west, where Mitt's on 30.

No, he won 1 precinct out of 5 in Keene.

I don't think Romney will break 40. At a glance, what's left seems like mostly a wash, maybe slightly unfavorable for him.

You're right. I didn't see that.

I said Romney would get 40%, because I didn't change my prediction in time :( I wanted to change it to 30%+.

Back down to 39% on CNN.

EDIT:Romney at 39.3% overall.

Licthfield and Danville are still out, but Romney should be at 16 points ahead of Paul.

Roemer - 876 votes
Bachmann - 325 votes

Just sayin' ;)

:P

Looking at the results, the counties, and the demographics:

-The Paul "College Town Kids" didn't show up in large numbers in college towns, which instead were owned by the "Rich Old Men" also found in college towns and went to Huntsman and Romney instead.

-However, Paul made up for it with the mountain men (in the north), the hobos (lower class, mostly in the area surrounding Concord explaining the small pockets in otherwise safe Romney territory, and the Paul green cutting a swath through Romney yellow in the northwest), the anarchists/weed smokers (the southwest area near Keene, Roxbury and Winchester for example), and the political Free Staters (helping around Concord).

-Huntsman, as I brilliantly predicted before the results started coming in, underperformed majorly. This can be explained by two things; first, his ground level support (both from his main campaign and his "grassroots") was basically nonexistent. From what I've heard, a lot of undecided folks were watching CNN (which, were you watching it throughout the day, was basically engaging in HUNTSMAN FANCLUB DAY) and were going to vote Huntsman, but then saw that he had no overt supporters and went to Romney/Paul instead. Also, Santorum had about a week of "SANTORUM SURGING" while Huntsman had a day or so.

()

I'm laughing at all the comments early on tonight saying tonight was a failure for Romney, saying that when he was at 34% and led Paul by 9-10. Now he's hovering around 40%, the spot they were criticizing him for not reach, and leads Paul by 17-18. Curious to see if they still think tonight was a failure for Romney.

BTW. Great maps Homely! :)

Worst Obama town: Farmington (Strafford County)

Obama 54%
Write-ins 32%
Vermin Supreme 2%

Tonight was completely unremarkable for Romney, just like most nights in his public life (not Iowa, though; that was a relative triumph).

Goffston and one precinct in Portsmouth are still out as well.

Gilmanton as well.

Getting 39% of the vote after running for six straight years in what is basically your home state against a bunch of candidates who basically don't have any campaigns at all is pathetic. Sorry Mittbots.

Sure, Romney didn't blow anyone away, but it certainly wasn't a failure either. He'll be getting momentum from this, its just a matter of it will be enough to withstand Newt Gingrichs suicide mission to take him down.

Its hard to completely wipe everyone out in a state when the airwaves are filled with anti-Romney ads and there were many attacks in the final debate.

That's what I meant. Unremarkable.

FWIW I saw a ton of Romney ads and about a third as many Huntsman ads (all from his PAC), and no ads from anyone else.

Getting less than 85% against candidates including Vermin Supreme is your definition of good?

Romney got 40% of the vote. How does that hurt him? And what argument do Newt and Rick Santorum have to defeat him after finishing 4th and 5th in NH? It isn't like those were startling finishing that would catapult him to victory.

This race is over. Newt and Rick will not beat Romney in SC barring a scandal breaking. It won't be a blowout, but he will win by 5-10%. Like I said, the upstate evangelicals no longer have the numbers to offset the low country and coastal vote like they once did.

Other than one Portsmouth precinct, Romney's stronghold is tapped out.

Also, to the political junkie, this may not have been a great win for Romney. But to the average GOP voter, they're going to wake up tomorrow, read their paper and see Romney easily carried NH, and think "Okay, he's going to be our nominee. I support him." An underwhelming performance could have put everything at risk. Instead, Mitt stayed solid, and did what needed to be done. Now, barring something crazy, he'll slip through SC, take Florida, and the nomination will be his.

Better than Bush got in 2004.

Litchfield just reported, Romney at 39.4, +16.6.  Gingrich ahead by 157, so the gap closed a bit.

How much of New Hampshire is in the Boston market?

only one incumbent has done better than 85%. Reagan got 86% in 1984.

And that was a close election.  Obama is still in decline; Bush holding to improving.

Whoa, Gingrich beat Santorum? lol

And that was a landslide. 

Just eyeballing it it looks like Santorum was the candidate whose pattern of support was most correlated with Paul's...

All of the most populated counties in the southern part of the state are in the Boston TV market.  A few counties along the Connecticut River are in the Burlington-Plattsburgh TV market.  A few counties along the Maine border in northern New Hampshire are in the Portland, Maine TV market.

So...are they going to finish reporting tonight?

From Politico.com:

M Romney   94,252   39.4%
R Paul  54,511   22.8%
J Huntsman   40,388   16.9%
N Gingrich   22,518   9.4%
R Santorum   22,292   9.3%
R Perry  1,668   0.7%
B Roemer   898   0.4%
M Bachmann  341  0.1%
F Karger   331   0.1%
K Rubash  246   0.1%
G Johnson  175  0.1%
H Cain 148  0.1%
J Lawman  122  0.1%
C Hill  103   0.0%
B Linn   82   0.0%
M Meehan  46  0.0%
J  Story   39  0.0%
K Drummond  35  0.0%
B Betzler  29  0.0%
J Robinson  26 0.0%
S Greenleaf  22  0.0%
M Callahan  18  0.0%
L Swift  17 0.0%
A Martin 16  0.0%
V Weuensche 15 0.0%
T Brewer  14 0.0%
J Davis  13  0.0%
R Crow  12 0.0%
J Vestermark  2 0.0%
H Cort  2 0.0%

Romney got 40%? How lame. I was hoping that a Romney would get 2nd place in NH for a 3rd time. Looks like Santorum got 5th place with 9%, so much for that Santorum surge.

...

Are you seriously trying to extrapolate meaningful conclusions from a primary that about six people voted in?

Clinton got 84% in 1996, Bush got 80% in 2000. Given the very small amount of people bothering to vote in totally uncompetitive primaries, those figures are pretty much the same. As is Obama's, what, 82%? Nothing to see here.

probably not. They'll wrap it up by Thursday and certify.

Previous incumbents who weren't seriously contested

Obama: 81.45% at the moment
Bush 79.8%
Clinton 84.4%
Reagan 86.1%

Nixon won 67.6% v. incumbent Congressmen.

Dailykos founder Tweeted "GOP enthusiasm gap: 185,000 voted tonight, compared to 240,000 in 2008"  According to the AP, with 95% reporting as of now, 242,917 voted in the GOP primary...

So about equal despite the fact that it was the only contested primary as opposed to 2008 when independents were splitting between it and the Democratic one? That isn't too impressive.

Well, that was fun.  Nice silver medal for RP.  Now it's onto South Carolina and even more fun!  I can't wait to see the 2 Ricks bust out the socially conservative rhetoric and tear up the liberal Romney.  Santorum's especially got the resume to fire up the fundies, this is gonna be some good stuff.

Hey, it'not like this is the most stupid thing JJ has ever done.

Who is Ed Cowan?

after iowa and nouveau-hampshire, the conclusion is simple : ron paul is the only solid opposant to mormon victory.

Perry is definitively down. How he dare to continue after 0.7% in NH???

Depends on how big the eating area is.

The far right wing really took a pounding in NH.  Both Gingrich and Santorum didn't even get enough votes to receive a single delegate and Perry did poorly

Although this may be good for the GOP in the fall.  If they can pull NH away from the Dems that would be significant even at just 4 electoral votes

()

Not a sign of strength for Obama; it is not a sign of disaster, either.  If you look at the two of those within range, Clinton and Bush II, you are looking at 49% and 51% of the vote.  Obama is a candidate that is weakening, as compared to 2008.  Weakening is not the same as losing.

Romney showed a great deal of strength here, not only winning, doing it with a fairly large margin, easily above 15 points and a with a better turnout than 2008.

loljj

Santorum only down 46 votes with two precincts left to report.

()

Paul won a county, Huntsman won some towns, and both did better than most polls predicted.  Plus, I got my two points, so not a bad night.

The Romney swing from 2008.  Romney was most improved in the Boston exurbs along the Massachusetts border (where he already did well in 2008) and Grafton County.  He underperformed 2008 in a few places, largely in the North Country and mountain areas.  Grey towns have no voters.

()

Edited map to add Waterville Valley.

100% in. Santorum loses to Newt by 49 votes.

Final town map:

()

What difference does it make? He isn't getting 10% and thus no delegates. I'd kinda prefer he beat out Gingrich if only to quiet the moronic talking heads who think he has any relevance left, but I seriously doubt "SANTORUM BEATS GINGRICH FOR FOURTH PLACE" is worth much of anything to him.

There's an error in that map: Google Maps' version confuses Wentworth with Wentworth's Location. There was actually a tie between Paul and Santorum in the latter.

Just stating it for the record, dude. Another contest where Santorum is within a handful of votes of his closest opponent.

And in other news, Vermin Supreme ended up with a higher percentage of the Democratic vote than Rick Perry did the Republican vote.

Rick Perry did worse than Morry Taylor '96.