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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: afleitch on January 11, 2012, 05:56:57 PM



Title: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 11, 2012, 05:56:57 PM
Yes, it be years away but it's been a very big news item these past few days. Despite the Coalition and Labour (in a rare show of unity) want Salmond to put it to a referendum sooner rather than later, Salmond has announced that proposals will be published indicating a referendum in 2014. While this has been suggested by some as co-inciding with the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn (which of course it does...) more likely it will take place in the autumn following the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow; a major patriotic showpiece.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 11, 2012, 07:00:08 PM
Does Scotland compete separately in the Commonwealth Games?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on January 11, 2012, 07:17:12 PM
Does Scotland compete separately in the Commonwealth Games?

Yes, as do England, Wales, Northern Ireland, Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man (who have a pretty good cyclist, name of Cavendish).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on January 13, 2012, 07:55:20 AM
Do we have a date?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 13, 2012, 08:04:58 AM

The Scottish Parliament passed a notion affirming an independence referendum in the Autumn of 2014

"Parliament recognises the mandate given to the Scottish government by the people of Scotland in the May 2011 Scottish election to hold a referendum offering people the choice to decide their future and agrees that it is the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament to decide the timing and arrangements for the referendum; welcomes the announcement of autumn 2014 as the date for Scotland's referendum; believes that 16 and 17-year-olds on the electoral roll should have the opportunity to vote, as it is their future along with everyone else's that will be determined by the result; encourages all Scots to take part in the Scottish government's consultation on the referendum to be launched in the week beginning 23 January 2012, and affirms that constitutional change is a process and that what ultimately matters is that the people who care most about Scotland, the people who live in Scotland, achieve a parliament with the powers and responsibilities of independence to grow the economy, create jobs, build a strong society and give all of Scotland's people the life chances that they deserve."

And that was Labour's motion that passed.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on January 13, 2012, 08:13:05 AM
"Autumn" is not a date. I wanted to be able to count down the days til Independence. :(


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on January 14, 2012, 06:13:00 AM
Don't underestimate the mess that would ensue in the rest of Great Britain in the event of a vote for independence.  It would certainly be the end of the Cameron premiership, and probably the end of the Coalition as well (by 2014 I can't see the coalition going on with somebody else at the helm).


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: 2952-0-0 on January 14, 2012, 06:17:22 AM
Will Cameron take a page from Chretien and introduce a "Clarity Act" to move the goalposts or is that too risky?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 15, 2012, 02:20:06 PM
Will Cameron take a page from Chretien and introduce a "Clarity Act" to move the goalposts or is that too risky?

Cameron's hands are tied effectively. The current stramash relates to whether Westminster or Holyrood are in charge of holding it. The argument that the SNP have a mandate in Scotland and the Coalition do not is a very powerful one.

For the record, at this moment in time I'm leaning towards a 'Yes' vote.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 15, 2012, 02:22:29 PM
Will Cameron take a page from Chretien and introduce a "Clarity Act" to move the goalposts or is that too risky?

For the record, at this moment in time I'm leaning towards a 'Yes' vote.

Find that interesting considering you're a Tory, but I guess it's not my place. How come, if you don't me asking?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 15, 2012, 02:30:13 PM
Will Cameron take a page from Chretien and introduce a "Clarity Act" to move the goalposts or is that too risky?

For the record, at this moment in time I'm leaning towards a 'Yes' vote.

Find that interesting considering you're a Tory, but I guess it's not my place. How come, if you don't me asking?

Because I'm the sort of nerd who reads into the figures and everything I've read pretty much demonstrates that we would be in good economical shape to go it alone. Also, Nat posturing on the issue aside we were shafted when it came to oil and gas revenues.

The future for Scotland is in drinkable water and renewable energy. We also have a very good potential for being a base for 'clean coal' once the technology becomes available (the Scottish Government has identified and marketed viable sites)

The UK government is dragging it's heels on full fiscal autonomy which would give us a greater element of control over our affairs on these matters which has angered me a great deal.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Frodo on January 15, 2012, 11:50:08 PM
Don't underestimate the mess that would ensue in the rest of Great Britain in the event of a vote for independence.  It would certainly be the end of the Cameron premiership, and probably the end of the Coalition as well (by 2014 I can't see the coalition going on with somebody else at the helm).

Wouldn't an independent Scotland (if it actually comes to pass by 2014) hurt the Labour Party more than the Conservatives? 


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: 2952-0-0 on January 16, 2012, 12:42:23 AM
How much is Cameron willing to go to frustrate the vote? He can threaten to veto Scotland's entry into the EU and UN and ask the nitty-gritty details of independence. Also, what will happen to Northern Ireland, given that most Protestants there are connected to Scotland? Then will the remaining England and Wales be viewed as a successor of the UKGBNI, similar to the Russian Federation being viewed as the successor to the USSR, or will it be a totally new entity? Many countries will demand that the rump England and Wales be stripped of its status at the UN Security Council. And that's before thousands of bilateral agreements get negotiated.

To a layman it seems like a very British Yugoslavia.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 16, 2012, 07:30:55 AM
Absolutely. The rump of the UK would be seen as the successor state; to all intents and purposes the UK would still be the UK, it just wouldn't have Scotland. Scotland may legally be considered a successor to in terms of international agreements etc, but wouldn't be looking for a top spot at the table. Scotland would be given almost immediate membership of the UN. Any opposition to Scotland joining the EU would be more likely to come from countires such as Spain for obvious reasons.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 16, 2012, 08:27:28 AM
I'm curious what would happen to NI given that most Unionists are "ethnically" scottish.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 16, 2012, 09:39:22 AM
It would cause a significant degree of consternation in certain parts of Ulster, yes, but no more than that. Or, anyway, no more than it would have an impact on Wales.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 16, 2012, 11:05:47 AM
I strongly disagree. It's always been "England and Wales".


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 16, 2012, 11:19:24 AM
Not quite sure what you mean. Devolution is a political reality in Wales as much as it is in Northern Ireland; serious administrative devolution started in the 1960s and we have had our own regional government since 1999. Obviously Scottish Independence would change the relationship between Whitehall and Cathays Park.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 16, 2012, 11:23:55 AM
I'm curious what would happen to NI given that most Unionists are "ethnically" scottish.

Nothing.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 16, 2012, 11:35:54 AM
Northern Ireland was created form Ireland; which was a dominion of sorts. Wales had no devo and rejected the idea in it's first referendum on the idea. They can not be compared. NI is unique, not just in the UK but in the world; it's one of a kind.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 16, 2012, 11:37:31 AM
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/opinion-where-will-scottish-independence-leave-northern-ireland-unionists-16104176.html
Quote
Some moderate Ulster Unionists have traditionally seen themselves as both Irish and British (and they cheer for the Irish rugby team). But if there is no such thing as "British" any more, where is the Ulster Unionist identity?

Read more: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/opinion-where-will-scottish-independence-leave-northern-ireland-unionists-16104176.html#ixzz1jdkCKkje


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Frodo on January 16, 2012, 11:44:05 AM
In addition to my other question (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=146856.msg3155419#msg3155419) earlier in this thread, I also want to ask this:

The official name of what we know as the 'United Kingdom' is the 'United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland'.  In the aftermath of a vote for independence by Scotland, will there need to be a name change?  


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 16, 2012, 12:00:08 PM
In addition to my other question (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=146856.msg3155419#msg3155419) earlier in this thread, I also want to ask this:

The official name of what we know as the 'United Kingdom' is the 'United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland'.  In the aftermath of a vote for independence by Scotland, will there need to be a name change?  

Well the 'United Kingdoms' are England, Scotland and Ireland. Britain was used post 1603 so you had the United Kingdom of Great Britain until 1801. Ireland was added but this was re-named upon the creation of Eire.

Technically (and this is where it gets complicated) there would still be a 'United Kingdom' if Scotland kept it's monarch. Dynastically, the Kingdoms of England and Scotland would still be in a 'personal union' (there is no political desire to have a Republic in Scotland as of yet amongst the SNP hierarchy) and therefore still a United Kingdom, but not for political purposes. But I don't think that term would ever be used for that purpose. For continuity it would be possible to have the United Kingdom of England and Northern Ireland but that may irk the Welsh. The use of the term Britain too would probably have to revert to the geographical term for the island. So I actually think while 'Britain' will be dropped, the term United Kingdom will be retained with 'England' used in shorthand (which it tends to be for alot of people anyway)

Don't underestimate the mess that would ensue in the rest of Great Britain in the event of a vote for independence.  It would certainly be the end of the Cameron premiership, and probably the end of the Coalition as well (by 2014 I can't see the coalition going on with somebody else at the helm).

Wouldn't an independent Scotland (if it actually comes to pass by 2014) hurt the Labour Party more than the Conservatives?  

Yes, but not as much as people assume. It wouldn't have made the slightest difference to the results from 1997-2005 for example in terms of seats; there would still have been a Labour majority. It would make 2015 more difficult for Labour yes with the new seats being factored in too.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 16, 2012, 12:10:45 PM
Northern Ireland was created form Ireland; which was a dominion of sorts. Wales had no devo and rejected the idea in it's first referendum on the idea. They can not be compared. NI is unique, not just in the UK but in the world; it's one of a kind.

Again, I'm not quite sure if I understand your point. The origins of Northern Ireland won't have any bearing on how its relationship with Whitehall will alter if Scotland leaves the Union. And devolution is certainly no more of a reality in Northern Ireland than in Wales; if anything it is less of one, as it has been established that political devolution can be immediately withdrawn if Westminster deems such an act necessary, and as the government in Northern Ireland must be formed in a way that pleases Westminster.

Also, your history is a little dodgy, but I'll let that pass.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on January 16, 2012, 01:03:57 PM
You could always solve these nomenclatural issues by elevating the Principality to a Kingdom, which would then be a part of the United Kingdom. :P



Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on January 16, 2012, 01:05:22 PM
And, really, (most) Northern Ireland Protestants are ethnically Irish, or more precisely, Protestant Northern Irish. Many of them have family links to Scotland, of course, but then that's true of many Irish Catholics as well you know?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 16, 2012, 01:45:13 PM
If Scotland goes, more people in NI will see this as a change to NI's relationship with what's left of the UK that people in Wales will see as a change to Wales' relationship with what's left of the UK. It's a bigger deal for NI than for Wales. That's the core of my point; and I am thus curious to see how NI would deal with this. Would it cause Nationalism to go on the rise? Would it cause Unionists to want union with, not England, but Scotland? How would Scotland react to the latter? Would England decide to push NI out of the union (they've made some half-arsed attempts at this before)? Would NI Unionists lose their will? Would Ireland make a move on NI? I don't know the answer to these questions, but they would all be opened up by a YES vote for Independence in Scotland, where as Wales would face only two issues (more Devo? Independence?) and England, one (Devo?)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever on January 16, 2012, 02:19:27 PM
Don't underestimate the mess that would ensue in the rest of Great Britain in the event of a vote for independence.  It would certainly be the end of the Cameron premiership, and probably the end of the Coalition as well (by 2014 I can't see the coalition going on with somebody else at the helm).

Wouldn't an independent Scotland (if it actually comes to pass by 2014) hurt the Labour Party more than the Conservatives?  

Yes, but not as much as people assume. It wouldn't have made the slightest difference to the results from 1997-2005 for example in terms of seats; there would still have been a Labour majority. It would make 2015 more difficult for Labour yes with the new seats being factored in too.

In the long term a Yes vote for independence would make it more difficult (although certainly not impossible) for Labour to win a majority.  In the short term it could bring down the Coalition.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on January 17, 2012, 06:24:02 AM
Would some Unionists get the idea that independence in alliance with England might be an option? Possibly. Would it actually be one? Obviously not.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 17, 2012, 07:39:42 AM
This idea from Quebec; I'm wondering, if the south of Scotland votes heavily in favour of staying with the UK, but Scotland as a whole votes to go, if there mightn't be a movement to partition the country


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 17, 2012, 07:47:28 AM
I can't imagine that happening, since there's simply no logical place to divide Scotland except maybe the Highland Line, which unless I'm mistaken about recent population dynamics not enough people live north of for that idea to be viable.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 17, 2012, 08:02:18 AM
This idea from Quebec; I'm wondering, if the south of Scotland votes heavily in favour of staying with the UK, but Scotland as a whole votes to go, if there mightn't be a movement to partition the country

I can't imagine that happening, since there's simply no logical place to divide Scotland except maybe the Highland Line, which unless I'm mistaken about recent population dynamics not enough people live north of for that idea to be viable.

No. There won't be a movement to partition the country. There will be a reaonably sized objection to it as there are a lot of English settled in the south (and in the Highlands for that matter; map coming soon) and we saw similar patterns in the Devolution votes of 1979 and 1997, but if Scotland goes it alone then the whole nation will. Even if there was a plea to 'stay' by some areas the UK could not and would not pay them any attention.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Јas on January 17, 2012, 08:20:54 AM
As you know, there used to be link between Gaelic speaking areas of Ulster and the Scottish Western Islands ( a dialect continuum). There used to be strong links between these population groups on family level etc. That explains the catholic enclaves on Western Isles.

The Dál Riada (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%C3%A1l_Riata) will rise again!


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 19, 2012, 03:05:43 AM
You could always solve these nomenclatural issues by elevating the Principality to a Kingdom, which would then be a part of the United Kingdom. :P

Wales isn't actually a Principality, is it? Obviously there's a Prince of Wales, but he doesn't actually exercise any sovereignty in Wales.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: bgwah on January 19, 2012, 03:40:44 AM
Scottish independence is one of the silliest movements ever.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on January 19, 2012, 10:21:25 AM
You could always solve these nomenclatural issues by elevating the Principality to a Kingdom, which would then be a part of the United Kingdom. :P

Wales isn't actually a Principality, is it?
No more than Scotland is a kingdom (despite the usage as a - I was going to say courtesy title, but it's more than that. Charles was formally invested with the office at some silly ceremony in Caernarfon when he turned 21. Which some Welsh separatists tried to plant a bomb at, and got themselves killed in the process.)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: joevsimp on January 19, 2012, 11:59:32 AM
You could always solve these nomenclatural issues by elevating the Principality to a Kingdom, which would then be a part of the United Kingdom. :P

Wales isn't actually a Principality, is it? Obviously there's a Prince of Wales, but he doesn't actually exercise any sovereignty in Wales.

he has some ancient feudal perks that the queen has in England(except Cornwall of course, where Chaz is the Duke) the only one I can remember off the top of my head is that he gets first dibs on any Sturgeon caught in Welsh or Cornish rivers


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Colbert on January 19, 2012, 07:29:36 PM
Scottish independence is one of the silliest movements ever.



Explaination ?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 24, 2012, 01:32:12 PM
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/lbill/2010-2012/0079/amend/am079-o.htm

The Lord's admendments to the Scotland Bill are fun. The Earl of Caithness wants the UK to vote to approve an independence vote in Scotland, not have the result of the Scottish vote apply to Orkney and Shetland and give Rockall to the UK.




Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on January 24, 2012, 01:38:34 PM
And Saint Kilda? Can we give that to Ireland?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 24, 2012, 03:17:53 PM
Read something (well, scan read) that said that the LibDems were going to proposed 'Home Rule' (whatever that means) for Scotland, maybe. Insert one of Dennis Potter's favourite jokes here.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on January 24, 2012, 03:40:39 PM
the LibDems were going to proposed 'Home Rule' (whatever that means)
Partition.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 24, 2012, 05:22:19 PM
Read something (well, scan read) that said that the LibDems were going to proposed 'Home Rule' (whatever that means) for Scotland, maybe. Insert one of Dennis Potter's favourite jokes here.

It's alright the LibDems coming up with stupid ideas in opposition, but in government? Stupid's just stupid.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 25, 2012, 07:57:53 AM
Read something (well, scan read) that said that the LibDems were going to proposed 'Home Rule' (whatever that means) for Scotland, maybe. Insert one of Dennis Potter's favourite jokes here.

It's alright the LibDems coming up with stupid ideas in opposition, but in government? Stupid's just stupid.

As I understand it, the proposal is a 'counter' to independence; full fiscal autonomy. It's actually a very sensible suggestion (though calling it Home Rule is a bit of an anachronism on their part) Indeed it is pissing me off somewhat that no Westminster party has committed itself to that cause. The Scottish Tories could have and should have embraced that form of radicalism several years ago but failed to do so.

That is part of the reason why I'm inclined to vote in favour of independence, because I don't want the status quo and no party is offering me anything better.

On that note, the Scottish Government is due to publish it's consultation paper on independence today.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 25, 2012, 09:02:37 AM
Functionally there wouldn't be that much of a difference between full fiscal autonomy (with all that that implies) and independence. Which is probably why hardly anyone has been advocating it up until now.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 25, 2012, 09:20:08 AM
Functionally there wouldn't be that much of a difference between full fiscal autonomy (with all that that implies) and independence. Which is probably why hardly anyone has been advocating it up until now.

The SNP would settle for it though; that is perhaps their long game.

Salmond is currently speaking. The proposed referendum question will be;

"Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?"

A very basic statement. On the face of it, neutral but deep down not so. 'Independent' is a more positive statement than 'Seperation' (ie, Do you believe Scotland should seperate from the UK and become an independent nation)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 25, 2012, 09:23:16 AM
Full consultation here;

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0038/00386122.pdf


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 25, 2012, 09:24:37 AM
The SNP would settle for it though; that is perhaps their long game.

Oh, it's easy to see why the SNP would settle for it (long term, even). It's slightly harder to see what any shade of unionist would though. Except, maybe, for the tartan-shortbread-and-the-Queen variety, but they all vote Nat these days anyway.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on January 25, 2012, 09:27:39 AM
There is no other shade of Unionist. There are people who would oppose independence, but most of them would not identify as "Unionist". Unless it's in an Ulster context perhaps - and even those are not a majority of opponents of Scottish independence (and some of them are probably for, anyways. How else does the SNP poll reasonably well in the proddy parts of Glasgow?)

Though they don't all vote Nat - who do you think peoples the remaining Con vote in rural North East Scotland? All English transplants?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 25, 2012, 09:31:46 AM
There is no other shade of Unionist. There are people who would oppose independence, but most of them would not identify as "Unionist". Unless it's in an Ulster context perhaps - and even those are not a majority of opponents of Scottish independence (and some of them are probably for, anyways. How else does the SNP poll reasonably well in the proddy parts of Glasgow?)

Little 'u' :)

Though you could always import the Canadian term 'federalist', I guess.

Quote
Though they don't all vote Nat - who do you think peoples the remaining Con vote in rural North East Scotland? All English transplants?

Oh, that was just a sneer ;D


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 25, 2012, 09:43:23 AM
So here we go:

A simple YES/NO question.
No turnout rules or thresholds; simple majority YES vote required in line with 1997 referendum.
16 and 17 year olds granted the right to vote.
Spending limits for political parties/pressure groups and individual donors.
Right to vote determined by residency in Scotland – British and Commonwealth citizens, citizens of other EU nations resident in Scotland, members of the House for Lords and resident stationed members of the armed forces.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 25, 2012, 04:24:45 PM
And Salmond's wanting a leading question: "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independant country?"

()


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 26, 2012, 02:48:05 PM
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2012/01/poll-scotland-voters-support

A poll in The Staggers (Never heard of the outfit)

Should Scotland become independent?

YES 44%
NO 45%


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 28, 2012, 08:54:50 PM
Has to be said that everytime Dave opens his mouth about this, it must be gaining 'Yes' quite a few votes. It's not like he's Jean Chretien.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Teddy (IDS Legislator) on January 28, 2012, 10:43:54 PM
I'm slightly paraphrasing, but here is an article from the BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-16749576

headline - Teddy was right: Lord Empey

The former Northern Ireland Executive minister was speaking during a debate in the House of Lords about the Scotland Bill, when he said that "Teddy's claim that Scottish moves would have a greater impact on Northern Ireland than it would on England or Wales is 100% accurate. People in Northern Ireland would have a foreign country on one side of us and a foreign country on the other side of us We would end up like West Pakistan. We are all hewn from the same rock. Just imagine the situation we would be placed in."


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 28, 2012, 11:03:41 PM
Reg Empty is an idiot, even by the standards of ex-Vanguard dunderheads that led the UUP to its electoral grave.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Tender Branson on January 29, 2012, 04:26:31 AM
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2012/01/poll-scotland-voters-support

A poll in The Staggers (Never heard of the outfit)

Should Scotland become independent?

YES 44%
NO 45%

"This exclusive poll for the New Statesman was carried out by ICD Research, powered by ID Factor, from 21-22 January 2012 and is based on a sample of 1,000 UK responses, of which 85 were Scottish."

LOLZ.

MoE = +/- 20% ?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on January 29, 2012, 04:32:24 AM
I...I wasn't aware that polls could be this sh**tty. I'm honestly impressed.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 29, 2012, 07:36:27 AM
I'm slightly paraphrasing, but here is an article from the BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-16749576

headline - Teddy was right: Lord Empey

The former Northern Ireland Executive minister was speaking during a debate in the House of Lords about the Scotland Bill, when he said that "Teddy's claim that Scottish moves would have a greater impact on Northern Ireland than it would on England or Wales is 100% accurate. People in Northern Ireland would have a foreign country on one side of us and a foreign country on the other side of us We would end up like West Pakistan. We are all hewn from the same rock. Just imagine the situation we would be placed in."

Northern Ireland is totally like West Pakistan.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on January 29, 2012, 07:40:26 AM
And we know what the East Pakistanis did as a result.

Reg Empey clearly doesn't, though. I presume he means East Pakistan, not West Pakistan, as the statement's few shreds of coherence disintegrate into thin air otherwise.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: ObserverIE on January 29, 2012, 08:31:26 AM
I'm slightly paraphrasing, but here is an article from the BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-16749576

headline - Teddy was right: Lord Empey

The former Northern Ireland Executive minister was speaking during a debate in the House of Lords about the Scotland Bill, when he said that "Teddy's claim that Scottish moves would have a greater impact on Northern Ireland than it would on England or Wales is 100% accurate. People in Northern Ireland would have a foreign country on one side of us and a foreign country on the other side of us We would end up like West Pakistan. We are all hewn from the same rock. Just imagine the situation we would be placed in."

Ah, good. Reg Empty resurrects the old "people = Unionists" equation, as if the other 40% of the Northern Ireland population were extra-terrestrials. Hadn't heard that one in a decade or so. Mullets, shoulder pads and bubble perms to follow in short order,


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 29, 2012, 08:33:27 AM
Northern Irish politicians are... strange.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: ObserverIE on January 29, 2012, 08:35:22 AM

Failed ones are even stranger.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 29, 2012, 10:49:37 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/01/29/alex-salmond-says-uk-maintained-independence-queen_n_1239859.html?ref=uk

What?

And btw, I read an article by a pollster that if his firm used Salmond's "Do you agree...?" question, they'd get panned for it. So true. It's basic Year 10 GCSE Maths that "Do you agree" will give an unfair outcome.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 29, 2012, 12:23:28 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/01/29/alex-salmond-says-uk-maintained-independence-queen_n_1239859.html?ref=uk

What?


Well he's right. Scotland and the rest of Britain would still be in a 'personal union'; for the purposes of Her Majesty, her Kingdom would be united, as it was from 1603-1707


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 29, 2012, 03:16:40 PM
It wouldn't be part of the UK any more than Canada is, though.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 29, 2012, 03:20:23 PM
Yeah, so they'd have a Governor-General and everything basically?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: patrick1 on January 29, 2012, 03:32:25 PM
Scottish independence: What happens to UK defence?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16634194

There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of consensus or thought going into this issue and the implications.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 29, 2012, 04:39:52 PM
Yeah, so they'd have a Governor-General and everything basically?

No. As Scotland is a Kingdom not a Dominion.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: YL on January 30, 2012, 04:31:05 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/01/29/alex-salmond-says-uk-maintained-independence-queen_n_1239859.html?ref=uk

What?


Well he's right. Scotland and the rest of Britain would still be in a 'personal union'; for the purposes of Her Majesty, her Kingdom would be united, as it was from 1603-1707

But there was no United Kingdom from 1603-1707: there was a Kingdom of England and a Kingdom of Scotland, which had the same monarch.  (Ignoring 1649-1660, of course.)  I assume that if Scotland votes Yes then the situation would be similar, except that the former would presumably be called the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland or something along those lines.

LOL at Reg Empey, anyway.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Joe Republic on January 30, 2012, 04:56:20 AM
So no desire for a republic, then?  If the SNP (and presumably the Tories) are in favor of retaining the monarchy, where would Labour and the Lib Dems stand on it in an already independent Scotland?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on January 30, 2012, 05:23:55 AM
Can't scare the waverers given what polls are. Tartan Tories might like Independence and the Queen. And there's always the contentious issue of how you select the President and what powers you give him - remember Australia.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 30, 2012, 07:44:57 AM
Can't scare the waverers given what polls are. Tartan Tories might like Independence and the Queen. And there's always the contentious issue of how you select the President and what powers you give him - remember Australia.

Yes. It would be easy to scare people with 'President Salmond', as some already have done. I have enjoyed the 'campaign' so far; SNP taking it seriously, the other parties not so. Which is annoying but reminds me of the 2011 campaign.

Worth noting as well that should independence be successful, the SNP will probably be finished. It's job will be done.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: JonBidinger on January 30, 2012, 03:31:09 PM
Worth noting as well that should independence be successful, the SNP will probably be finished. It's job will be done.

Smart politicians will find a way. Re-elect us to safeguard our new independence!


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Insula Dei on January 30, 2012, 03:36:44 PM
Worth noting as well that should independence be successful, the SNP will probably be finished. It's job will be done.

Smart politicians will find a way. Re-elect us to safeguard our new independence!

It doesn't tend to work that way. Once the mission is accomplished broad-tent  parties with a clear-defined goal like the SNP fall apart. Their only hope to continue to exist is if there is some collective other goal to be worked towards/ collective ideological background, or if they somehow manage to throw themselves up as the 'natural party of government' of the new political entity they have created (think: ANC). I don't think the SNP is Scotland's natural party of government and they don't seem to have a very clear-defined ideological profile beyond their nationalist aspirations.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: YL on January 30, 2012, 03:47:08 PM
Worth noting as well that should independence be successful, the SNP will probably be finished. It's job will be done.

So how do you think post-independence politics would play out in Scotland?  Assuming Labour become the "natural party of government", who would be their main rivals?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 30, 2012, 06:33:09 PM
Worth noting as well that should independence be successful, the SNP will probably be finished. It's job will be done.

So how do you think post-independence politics would play out in Scotland?  Assuming Labour become the "natural party of government", who would be their main rivals?

I doubt that assumption could be made. Remember that the SNP are not wishing to be Labour's opposition; they want to replace it


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 30, 2012, 07:30:02 PM
I think it's more likely that a post-independence SNP would very quickly slide into being a Party of Business with all that that tends to imply.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on January 31, 2012, 07:16:07 AM
The Conservatives might linger on for a while, either as a party of United Empire Loyalists or just as a more bourgeois alternative to the SNP - but not both. The LDs' time in Scottish history will probably be over within a term of a successful independence referendum. I'd expect a stable Labour-SNP two-party system.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 31, 2012, 07:27:41 AM
I think it's more likely that a post-independence SNP would very quickly slide into being a Party of Business with all that that tends to imply.

It sort of has already, though it's political suicide to openly boast about it (Labour too keep quiet)

The Conservatives might linger on for a while, either as a party of United Empire Loyalists or just as a more bourgeois alternative to the SNP - but not both. The LDs' time in Scottish history will probably be over within a term of a successful independence referendum. I'd expect a stable Labour-SNP two-party system.

Independence is in my view the only way for a Conservative Party revival. Of course, the party that organised wouldn't be the Tories; they would need to dissolve and form a right of centre party with the remnant Liberals and some SNP defections. I can't see the need for a Lib Dem party but I would consider that the Greens would remain and probably strengthen.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 31, 2012, 11:15:35 AM
I think it's more likely that a post-independence SNP would very quickly slide into being a Party of Business with all that that tends to imply.

It sort of has already, though it's political suicide to openly boast about it (Labour too keep quiet)

The Conservatives might linger on for a while, either as a party of United Empire Loyalists or just as a more bourgeois alternative to the SNP - but not both. The LDs' time in Scottish history will probably be over within a term of a successful independence referendum. I'd expect a stable Labour-SNP two-party system.

Independence is in my view the only way for a Conservative Party revival. Of course, the party that organised wouldn't be the Tories; they would need to dissolve and form a right of centre party with the remnant Liberals and some SNP defections. I can't see the need for a Lib Dem party but I would consider that the Greens would remain and probably strengthen.

If they keep AMS (or even move to a list system) the parties would massively fracture - Europe style.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: minionofmidas on January 31, 2012, 01:54:19 PM
I think it's more likely that a post-independence SNP would very quickly slide into being a Party of Business with all that that tends to imply.

It sort of has already, though it's political suicide to openly boast about it (Labour too keep quiet)

The Conservatives might linger on for a while, either as a party of United Empire Loyalists or just as a more bourgeois alternative to the SNP - but not both. The LDs' time in Scottish history will probably be over within a term of a successful independence referendum. I'd expect a stable Labour-SNP two-party system.

Independence is in my view the only way for a Conservative Party revival. Of course, the party that organised wouldn't be the Tories; they would need to dissolve and form a right of centre party with the remnant Liberals and some SNP defections.
Yeah, that's the "more bourgeois alternative" path. It obviously has more longterm potential than the other one. Though things'd have to go fairly badly for the SNP for this to be much more than the Portuguese PP (or, you know, the current Tories in Scotland).

Good point about the Greens, I suppose.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 31, 2012, 02:24:07 PM

The Greens are well placed to appeal to the 'bourgeois left' should the Lib Dems vacate the scene

()

I had forgot to post this. This is of course the council results for 2007 for the Greens where they stood. Strong results in the well to do areas of Glasgow and Edinburgh (and not just students) likwise in Fife, places like Dunblane, North Berwick, Strathaven, Lanark etc


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on January 31, 2012, 02:42:19 PM

The Greens are well placed to appeal to the 'bourgeois left' should the Lib Dems vacate the scene

()

I had forgot to post this. This is of course the council results for 2007 for the Greens where they stood. Strong results in the well to do areas of Glasgow and Edinburgh (and not just students) likwise in Fife, places like Dunblane, North Berwick, Strathaven, Lanark etc

The Libs still appeal to the bourgeois left?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 31, 2012, 02:44:38 PM
It sort of has already, though it's political suicide to openly boast about it (Labour too keep quiet)

Yeah, but it would become much more apparent in the event of independence (and possibly even further devolution, though I'm less sure about that). Which would have some impact on the structure of the party system, though Lord knows what.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 31, 2012, 06:13:54 PM
Would I be off-base in thinking that a large number of Tories and Nationalists might gather themselves into one right-wing organization?


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on January 31, 2012, 06:20:41 PM
Would I be off-base in thinking that a large number of Tories and Nationalists might gather themselves into one right-wing organization?

I would hope so, but I can hardly get them in one room without a fight never mind a party.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 20, 2012, 06:03:44 PM
Random:

()

(actually it's not random at all, but, whateversky)


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 20, 2012, 06:06:51 PM
I think it's cute that Rupe's using the language of 'competition' and, by implication, 'markets' to describe the phenomenon of being a nation-state.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: afleitch on February 21, 2012, 07:28:22 AM
This one is cute.

The PNV in Eusakdi have apparently proposed a draft law that would replace Madrid with Edinburgh as their capital.


Title: Re: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
Post by: You kip if you want to... on April 01, 2012, 11:44:56 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/03/31/peter-cruddas-scottish-independence_n_1393744.html?ref=uk

Just lovely.