Talk Elections

___ % Romney
___ % Gingrich
___ % Santorum
___ % Paul
___ % Perry
___ % Others

30% Gingrich
28% Romney
21% Paul
14% Santorum
5% Perry
2% Others

I also expect Newt to gain a few points after the debate performances and say:

26% Romney
24% Gingrich
23% Santorum
18% Paul
  8% Perry
  1% Others

Can change though in the next days and Romney is for sure not a sure winner in SC ...

Plus: Can some mod please sticky this ?

Too early to say. But early indications are that Gingrich might be closing the gap.

Yeah, SC's voters need to reject Romney and vote for someone they can trust, like Newt...wait a sec...

South Carolinians are good Christian folk. They're not going to vote for a Mormon.

Because a serial liar and thrice married hypocrite is so much better!

Newt Gingrich has accepted the true Christian God. Newt has asked for forgiveness and the true Christian God has forgiven him. And Eraserhead is correct; come Saturday, the good Christian people of South Carolina will elect a man of faith, Newt Gingrich, over the worshiper of false heathen cultist deities.

Ironic Newt Chute supporters?

Newt Gingrich
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum
Ron Paul
Rick Perry

Gingrich
Romney
Paul
Santorum
Perry

Mittens
Newt
Ron
Ricky S
Ricky P

Romney (>5 points)
Gingrich
Paul
Santorum
Perry

Romney (1-5 points)
Gingrich
Santorum
Paul
Perry

29,5% Romney
27,5% Gingrich
18,5% Santorum
18% Paul
  5,5% Perry
  1% Others

Gingrich 31%
Romney 28%
Paul 17%
Santorum 16%
Perry 7%
Others 1%

Romney - 34%
Gingrich - 28%
Paul - 15%
Santorum - 15%
Perry - 6%

I'm probably being too generous toward Newt - but I'm counting on the media to make a fairly non-competitive contest seem like one.

Romney   31%
Gingrich   31%
Paul           17%
Santorum   13%
Cain (Colbert) 6%
Others 2%

Romney 31% 
Gingrich 29%
Paul 17%
Santorum 15%
Cain 4%
Perry 4%

31 % Gingrich
29 % Romney
17 % Santorum
15 % Paul
7 % Perry
1 % Others

If Perry drops out:

34% Gingrich
28% Romney
18% Santorum
15% Paul
~5% Perry, Cain, Bachmann, etc

If Perry doesn't drop out:

31% Gingrich
30% Romney
16% Paul
15% Santorum
8% Perry

PRELIMINARY PREDICTION:

Gingrich: 33%
Romney: 31%
Paul: 18%
Santorum: 10%
Perry: 4%
Cain: 2%
Huntsman: 1%

A negative Nancy:  35%

A raging Randy:  33%

A smelly Stanley: 17%

A positive Paul:  9%



Obviously  ::)

34 Newt
29 Romney
15 Paul
15 Santorum
8 Perry

Romney 32% 
Gingrich 30%
Paul 18%
Santorum 13%

Others: whatever else.

29 % Romney
24 % Gingrich
19 % Santorum
17 % Paul


Gingrich rising, but not enough.

Gingrich 37
Romney 32
Santorum 15
Paul 15

New prediction with Perry out:

34% Gingrich
27% Romney
21% Paul
15% Santorum
  3% Others (Bachmann, Cain, Huntsman, Johnson, Perry - all of them still on the ballot)

1. Mittens/Newtie
2. Mittens/Newtie
3. Saintly Rick
4. Conspircist
5. Others
6. Bush 44, assuming he's still on the ballot.

1. Amphibian - 33
2. Mormon -  31
3. Tard - 21
4. Frothy - 12

And that's my ofishial prediction folks.

1.Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich
2.Mittster
2.Santorum
4.dr. Paul

Newt 35
Romney 32
Paul 18
Santorum 12
Others 3

Gingrich: 38%
Romney: 31%
Santorum: 17%
Paul: 14%

Gingrich: 37%
Romney: 32%
Paul: 19%
Santorum: 12%

36% Gingrich
31% Romney
19% Paul
12% Santorum
2% Others

EDIT: Left in quotes by accident.  This is a revised prediction.

Gingrich: 35
Romney: 31
Paul: 19
Santorum: 10
Others: 5

I like the way you think Globalizer ;)

Gingrich 31%
Romney 29%
Santorum 20%
Paul 18%
Others 2%

Post-Perry

Georgia Philanderer: 34%
Massachusetts Flip-flopper: 29%
Lonestar Loon: 16%
Pennsylvanian Prude: 15%
True South Carolinian American*: 6%



*Stephen Colbert/Herman Cain

Gingrich: 33%
Romney: 31%
Paul: 17%
Santorum: 13%
Herman Cain starring Stephen Colbert: 1-3%

Gingrich 33
Romney 31
Santorum 16
Paul 15

Gingrich: 36%
Romney: 31%
Paul: 18%
Santorum: 12%
Other: 3%

Post-debate, post-Perry update:

Romney - 35%
Gingrich - 35%
Paul - 16%
Santorum - 13%

Romney and Gingrich numbers seem much more fluid than they did a few days ago.

Gingrich 35
Romney 26
Paul 20
Santorum 16
Other 3

1) Newt Gingrich
2) Mitt Romney
3) Rick Santorum
4) Ron Paul

I'll do my placeholder thing here for a prediction.

One key point - Mitt Romney is obviously not a student of history.  In politics, you can't run out the clock and expect to win.  That's the Thomas Dewey lesson.  And it's especially applicable in primaries.

While I still think Gingrich blows up enough at some point to let Romney win, regardless (because that is his habit), if Romney loses South Carolina, the coronation will be over with until Super Tuesday at the earliest, and lest we forget, Thomas Dewey did lose in the end.

EDIT (PREDICTION)
Gingrich 40
Romney 31
Paul 14
Santorum 13
Others 2

Newt Gingrich 37%
Mitt Romney 30%
Ron Paul 17%
Rick Santorum 14%
Rick Perry 1%
Others 1%

Edited for Rick Perry dropping out...

36 Newt
29 Romney
17 Santorum
15 Paul
3 Other

Newt 39
Romney 26
Santroum 18
Paul 15
Others 2

Gingrich 36%
Romney 28%
Santorum 19%
Paul 15%
Others 2%

Put my final prediction for the GOP primary up on the first page. Is anyone on the ballot with Obama here?

The SC Democratic Primary will be held on Jan. 28

Tomorrow, the Democratic NV Caucus will take place.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c&f=m

It looks like the NV Dem. Caucus tomorrow already starts at 11:30 AM and should be finished by 1pm Nevada time.

Which means we have the caucus result before the SC GOP numbers. But Obama wins with 90%+ of all delegates anyway.

http://www.pledgetocaucus.com/how-it-works

Well, I'll be damned! Thanks for the info.

Wait, the SC primary is this Saturday??  That seems a bit weird.

Post-Perry prediction:

Gingrich 35%
Romney 30%
Santorum 18%
Paul 16%
Others 1%

Gingrich     33 %
Romney     25
Paul           20
Santorum  17
Others         5

Gingrich - 39%
Romney - 31%
Paul - 15%
Santorum - 14%
Other - 1%

(subject to revision): Gingrich 39 | Romney 31 | Paul 16 | Santorum 12 | other 2

Gingrich - 34%
Romney - 30%
Paul - 19%
Santorum - 15%
Other - 2%

Romney - 34
Gingrich - 32
Santorum - 17
Paul - 14
Scattering - 3

*hat tip*

Updated Prediction (1/20/12):

Newt Gingrich: 35%
Mitt Romney: 31%
Ron Paul: 17%
Rick Santorum: 14%
Hermain Cain: 1-3%

Gingrich - 37%
Romney - 31%
Paul - 16%
Santorum - 14%

Gingrich: 36%
Romney: 31%
Paul: 20%
Santorum: 12%
Others: 1%

Gingrich 39%
Romney 30%
Paul 15%
Santorum 13%
Others 3%

Gingrich  40%
Romney  28%
Paul        21%
Santorum  9%
Others      2%

Gingrich   35%
Romney   29%
Paul           15%
Santorum   15%
Cain (Colbert) 4%
Others 2%

Last prediction

Gingrich      33
Romney      27
Santorum   18
Paul           17

Gingrich - 38%
Romney - 32%
Paul - 14%
Santorum - 14%
Other - 2%

Gingrich - 38%
Romney - 31%
Paul - 18%
Santorum - 16%
Others - 1%

Not possible.

Gingrich- 34%
Romney-32%
Santorum-19%
Paul-15%

Damn you math!

Let's say...

Gingrich - 36%
Romney - 29%
Paul - 17%
Santorum - 16%
Others - 2%

Gingrich 37%. Romney 31%. Santorum 18%. Paul 13%. Others 1%

Gingrich- 37%
Romney- 32%
Paul- 17%
Santorum- 12%
Others- 2%

Time for my final prediction:

35.0% Gingrich
26.5% Romney
18.9% Paul
17.4% Santorum
  2.2% Others (Bachmann, Cain, Huntsman, Johnson, Perry)

I actually want Santorum to come in last, so he can drop out and probably endorse Gingrich.

Gingrich 40% +/- 5%
Romney 30% +/- 5%
Paul 15% +/- 5%
Santorum 13% +/-5%
Other 2% +/- 1%

Newt 37
Romney 29
Paul 17
Santorum 13
Others 4

Gingrich - 36%
Romney - 28%
Santorum - 17%
Paul - 16%
Others - 3%

Gingrich- 39%
Mittens- 30%
Paul- 14%
Santorum- 13%
Others- 4%
Gingrich gets close to 40% and almost wins by double digits but not quite.

Final Prediction:

Gingrich - 37%
Romney - 30%
Paul - 20%
Santorum - 11%
Others - 2%

Gingrich 46
Romney 25
Paul 15
Santorum 11
Others 3

I was pretty off on New Hampshire, so let's see if I can save face. Oh f--- it, all in on Gingrich.

Gingrch - 40%
Romney - 29%
Paul - 15%
Santorum - 14%
Others - 2%

Final Prediction:

Newt Gingrich: 37%
Mitt Romney: 29%
Ron Paul: 17%
Rick Santorum: 13%
Others (including Colbert): 4%

Must change this one more time:

38% Gingrich
25% Romney
17% Paul
16% Santorum
  4% Others (Bachmann, Colbert-backed Cain, Huntsman, Johnson, Perry)

I will cry tears of joy...

37% Gingrich
27% Romney
17% Paul
15% Santorum
4% "Cain"/Others

EDIT: Lief makes a good point.

This has all the makings of a larger-than-polled landslide about it, a la Obama SC 2008. I should have changed my prediction to Newt >40% last night.

Newt: 43%
Romney: 26%
Paul: 17%
Santorum: 11%
Other: 3%

Gingrich 39%
Romney 29%
Paul 17%
Santorum 13%
Others 2%

Gingrich 44
Romney 26
Paul 15
Santorum 13
Cainlbert 2

36% Gingrich
27% Romney
18% Paul
14% Santorum
2% Perry
2% Others

Fairly proud of this one. Santorum was spot on, Paul off by one, Gingrich off by two, Romney off by three.

()

Actual Prediction for South Carolina
Gingrich:41%
Romney: 26%
Paul 15%
Santorum: 14%
Other: 4%

South Carolina Results
Gingrich 40% (-1%)
Romney 28% (+2%)
Santorum 17% (+3%)
Paul 13% (-3%)
Other 2% (-2%)

Was looking for a while like i would have it perfect for Gingrich and Romney.

Meh, not bad. Not great, but not bad. Overestimated Paul and underestimated Santorum a little.

Well, I nailed Romney's %...

I should have reversed Santorum and Paul.

<3 that hilariously wrong Santorum-Paul prediction. Oh, the jmfcsts.

Yet again robbed of two points. This point by .5 points, the last time by .7. Urgh.

What do you mean? You get one point if you correctly picked Gingrich. Only the second point depends on getting the percentage correct.

I'm not playing this prediction game, but where do I look to see how many points each of you has?

Dave hasn't added the scores for 2012 yet (there would still be a ton of ties at this point anyway).

You can find the 2008 scores about half-way down the page here: https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008D/pred.php

I am not just a Romney hack.