Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: ajc0918 on January 31, 2012, 08:20:38 PM



Title: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: ajc0918 on January 31, 2012, 08:20:38 PM
He's now running in FL 18, where Tom Rooney is now running in the 17th
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/31/allen-west-to-switch-districts/

Is FL 22nd now D+1?


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Mr.Phips on January 31, 2012, 08:27:05 PM
He's now running in FL 18, where Tom Rooney is now running in the 17th
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/31/allen-west-to-switch-districts/

Is FL 22nd now D+1?

FL-22 is now around D+5.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Miles on January 31, 2012, 08:32:19 PM
He's now running in FL 18, where Tom Rooney is now running in the 17th
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/31/allen-west-to-switch-districts/

Is FL 22nd now D+1?

FL-22 is now around D+5.

He means D+1 as in Democrats are likely to pick up this seat.

I think its 56% Obama, so D+3 in terms of PVI.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Mr.Phips on January 31, 2012, 08:58:05 PM
He's now running in FL 18, where Tom Rooney is now running in the 17th
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/31/allen-west-to-switch-districts/

Is FL 22nd now D+1?

FL-22 is now around D+5.

He means D+1 as in Democrats are likely to pick up this seat.

I think its 56% Obama, so D+3 in terms of PVI.

Obama actually underperformed in that area.  Kerry also got 56% in that district, so average D+8 and D+3 and you get roughly D+5. 


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on January 31, 2012, 09:22:35 PM
What does FL-18 hold? Is it just a redrawn version of the current one? Or is it way down near Martin County? I have not seen the new district maps.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Vote UKIP! on February 01, 2012, 12:13:03 AM
Allen was unnecessarily gerrymandered out of his district. Florida is going to gain seats. This is the establishment punishing West for being an outspoken TEA Partier.

Why didn't they gerrymander Debbie Wassermann Schultz out of her district?


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Napoleon on February 01, 2012, 12:15:18 AM
Allen was unnecessarily gerrymandered out of his district. Florida is going to gain seats. This is the establishment punishing West for being an outspoken TEA Partier.

Why didn't they gerrymander Debbie Wassermann Schultz out of her district?

Tell us what else you know about Florida!!


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: DrScholl on February 01, 2012, 12:41:47 AM
By law, there was no way that they could draw West a favorable district without risking getting the map overruled in court. The district he holds was a gerrymander to start with.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on February 01, 2012, 12:59:34 AM
Allen was unnecessarily gerrymandered out of his district. Florida is going to gain seats. This is the establishment punishing West for being an outspoken TEA Partier.

Why didn't they gerrymander Debbie Wassermann Schultz out of her district?

Please go ahead and draw this map where West keeps a winnable seat in that area and Schultz would lose. I am very curious in what this would look like. Two non-Cuban Republican seats on the Gold Coast would be quite the accomplishment!


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 01, 2012, 01:57:37 AM
Allen was unnecessarily gerrymandered out of his district. Florida is going to gain seats. This is the establishment punishing West for being a outspoken TEA Partier deranged war criminal.


Fixed.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: smoltchanov on February 01, 2012, 02:20:45 AM
Allen was unnecessarily gerrymandered out of his district. Florida is going to gain seats. This is the establishment punishing West for being a outspoken TEA Partier deranged war criminal.


Fixed.

Agree - fix was neccessary here))))


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on February 01, 2012, 02:23:10 AM
Even the fix isn't correct as it implies "the establishment" was trying to punish West at all when in fact this was a case of "the establishment" being unable under the law to preserve his current gerrymandered monstrosity of a seat.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: minionofmidas on February 01, 2012, 05:39:49 AM
Excellent. Rooney would have held the 18th with ease. West, perhaps not.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: minionofmidas on February 01, 2012, 05:53:05 AM
What does FL-18 hold? Is it just a redrawn version of the current one? Or is it way down near Martin County? I have not seen the new district maps.
All of Saint Lucie and Martin, and northern PB.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on February 01, 2012, 05:35:05 PM
What does FL-18 hold? Is it just a redrawn version of the current one? Or is it way down near Martin County? I have not seen the new district maps.
All of Saint Lucie and Martin, and northern PB.
Has that changed, or is it the same? I would of thought that the new FL-18 includes parts of what is now FL-22.

Is a map of the redrawn districts for FL availiable anywhere?


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on February 01, 2012, 05:39:57 PM
Allen was unnecessarily gerrymandered out of his district. Florida is going to gain seats. This is the establishment punishing West for being an outspoken TEA Partier.

Why didn't they gerrymander Debbie Wassermann Schultz out of her district?
Do you even live here? I could have sworn that your avatar said GA. Anyway, West is my Congressman (as of now), and he is HARDLY "Tea Party". I have met him 16 times at this point, and I must say it is a love-hate deal. I love having a firebrand Republican known across the country as my Congressman. But I hate the fact that he is ardently Israel first, a radical Hawk, and extremely negative towards Ron Paul and Constitutionalist. 


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: minionofmidas on February 02, 2012, 06:50:49 AM
Kinda sh!tty map, and not official yet anyways, but here (http://censusvalidator.blob.core.windows.net/mydistrictbuilderdata/Legislative%20Plans/H000C9047_8x11.pdf) you go. Includes the northern 23% of the old 22nd.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on February 02, 2012, 11:22:02 PM
According to what I saw on Green Papers, Hasner has dropped out of the Senate race and is running in the 22nd. Are his chances any better then what West's would have been?


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on February 03, 2012, 02:20:21 AM
Any Republican who isn't an idiot has a better chance than West, but it would take quite the favorable circumstances for any Republican to win that district regardless.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: DrScholl on February 03, 2012, 05:16:35 PM
Hasner won't win that seat, he just won't be as much at as much as a disadvantage as West would be.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Gass3268 on February 08, 2012, 12:07:52 PM
Looks like his opponent Patrick Murphy will be switching districts too in order to continue to run against Allen West.

http://patrickmurphy2012.com/node/393


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: ajc0918 on February 08, 2012, 04:21:27 PM
Looks like his opponent Patrick Murphy will be switching districts too in order to continue to run against Allen West.

http://patrickmurphy2012.com/node/393

This is great, because now Lois Frankel can focus on the general election.
Both Murphy and Frankel have raised a ton of money(obviously not as much as West).

I think Murphy might make this competitive.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Brittain33 on February 08, 2012, 09:20:37 PM
It would be awesome if West has moved to the one district in Florida where his eccentricity could make the difference between winning and losing.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: minionofmidas on February 09, 2012, 05:44:49 AM
It would be awesome if West has moved to the one district in Florida where his eccentricity could make the difference between winning and losing.
The one is South East Florida. I think West would be less, not more, electable in Young's illegal gerrymander.

Calling Young's district "illegal" is not a prediction on whether or not it will be struck and redrawn - could happen, could not happen - but merely a statement of fact. It's a risk absolutely worth taking for Republicans though - losing the ability to draw the exact perimeters of what's now numbered the 12th and 15th districts is not something to lose sleep over.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: minionofmidas on February 09, 2012, 08:56:10 AM
Kinda sh!tty map, and not official yet anyways, but here (http://censusvalidator.blob.core.windows.net/mydistrictbuilderdata/Legislative%20Plans/H000C9047_8x11.pdf) you go. Includes the northern 23% of the old 22nd.
Better maps:

http://www.flsenate.gov/PublishedContent/Session/Redistricting/Plans/H000C9047/H000C9047_map_fl.pdf

http://www.flsenate.gov/PublishedContent/Session/Redistricting/Plans/H000C9047/H000C9047_map_ec.pdf

http://www.flsenate.gov/PublishedContent/Session/Redistricting/Plans/H000C9047/H000C9047_map_se.pdf

Still not as detailed as you might like.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on February 27, 2012, 10:06:15 AM
Allen was unnecessarily gerrymandered out of his district. Florida is going to gain seats. This is the establishment punishing West for being an outspoken TEA Partier.

Why didn't they gerrymander Debbie Wassermann Schultz out of her district?

To those who call Allen West a war criminal, you're wrong. They did this because he's a Tea Partier and Crist is seething from loosing to the Tea Party.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 27, 2012, 10:33:19 AM
Allen was unnecessarily gerrymandered out of his district. Florida is going to gain seats. This is the establishment punishing West for being an outspoken TEA Partier.

Why didn't they gerrymander Debbie Wassermann Schultz out of her district?

To those who call Allen West a war criminal, you're wrong. They did this because he's a Tea Partier and Crist is seething from loosing to the Tea Party.

What control could Crist have over the redistricting process?


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: MyRescueKittehRocks on February 27, 2012, 12:12:42 PM
Crist has considerable influance in Florida inspite of his defeat in the Senate race.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on February 27, 2012, 01:54:40 PM
You know there's really no way to make any district in that area any more Republican anyway, right?


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Miles on February 27, 2012, 05:09:39 PM
If he doesn't run for Governor as a Democrat in 2014, I'd like to see Crist run for the Pinellas district when Bill Young retires.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on February 27, 2012, 05:46:11 PM
Adam Hasner is running against Frankel now, and it looks like I will get my 18 service hours working for his already doomed campaign.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: ajc0918 on February 27, 2012, 06:08:30 PM
Adam Hasner is running against Frankel now, and it looks like I will get my 18 service hours working for his already doomed campaign.

So you don't think Hasner has a chance?


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Chaddyr23 on February 28, 2012, 06:42:58 PM
Allen's old district was gerrymandered to the tee. I don't get why he's running in a district 90 miles away from home. Urban south Florida is different from that stretch between Palm Beach and Daytona.
Anyways, Allen West was a teacher at my school a few years before I went there and he was so jarred by the proportion of Muslims kids in his History class he left and went back to war. I really dislike the man.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: nclib on February 28, 2012, 09:42:54 PM
Allen's old district was gerrymandered to the tee. I don't get why he's running in a district 90 miles away from home. Urban south Florida is different from that stretch between Palm Beach and Daytona.

Also in a district that Obama won, where there are other open McCain CD's in Fla.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Smash255 on February 28, 2012, 10:54:36 PM
Crist has considerable influance in Florida inspite of his defeat in the Senate race.

You do know the asinine shape of West's current district correct??  It took an EXTREME gerrymander to cook that one up.  Problem for the GOP was the voters passed a referendum in 2010 forcing the districts to be compact.  West could have drawn the district himself, and it would not have saved him.

This had nothing to do with what influence Crist did or did not have.  This had to do with the current law in Florida that no longer allows for the extreme of the extreme gerrymanders that happened last time around resulting in that district. 


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: minionofmidas on February 29, 2012, 07:58:31 AM
Allen's old district was gerrymandered to the tee. I don't get why he's running in a district 90 miles away from home. Urban south Florida is different from that stretch between Palm Beach and Daytona.

Also in a district that Obama won, where there are other open McCain CD's in Fla.

Crist has considerable influance in Florida inspite of his defeat in the Senate race.

You do know the asinine shape of West's current district correct??  It took an EXTREME gerrymander to cook that one up.  Problem for the GOP was the voters passed a referendum in 2010 forcing the districts to be compact.  West could have drawn the district himself, and it would not have saved him.

This had nothing to do with what influence Crist did or did not have.  This had to do with the current law in Florida that no longer allows for the extreme of the extreme gerrymanders that happened last time around resulting in that district. 

It's the only R-winnable district including a considerable portion of his old district that could be reasonably drawn, and Tom Rooney was given an offer he couldn't refuse (a safe R district that again includes a considerable portion of his old district) to bow out of this his home turf.
A better outcome for West was, literally, not legally conceivable, and I am fairly certain he did in fact have a hand in drawing it.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 20, 2012, 11:33:27 AM
Adam Hasner is running against Frankel now, and it looks like I will get my 18 service hours working for his already doomed campaign.

So you don't think Hasner has a chance?
Forgive this threads bump, but after volunteering for Hasner in the last few weeks, I am convinced he can beat Frankel. He is far more charismatic then I remember and far less divisive as West. Frankel will have to take West's position as the "aggressive" candidate.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: ajc0918 on March 20, 2012, 03:25:36 PM
Adam Hasner is running against Frankel now, and it looks like I will get my 18 service hours working for his already doomed campaign.

So you don't think Hasner has a chance?
Forgive this threads bump, but after volunteering for Hasner in the last few weeks, I am convinced he can beat Frankel. He is far more charismatic then I remember and far less divisive as West. Frankel will have to take West's position as the "aggressive" candidate.

Yes, he definitely has a better shot than West did, but the new FL-22 (as the current proposals say) is a 57% Obama district. It will be hard for him to win.


Title: Re: FL: Allen West Switching Districts
Post by: Atlas Has Shrugged on March 20, 2012, 05:38:36 PM
Adam Hasner is running against Frankel now, and it looks like I will get my 18 service hours working for his already doomed campaign.

So you don't think Hasner has a chance?
Forgive this threads bump, but after volunteering for Hasner in the last few weeks, I am convinced he can beat Frankel. He is far more charismatic then I remember and far less divisive as West. Frankel will have to take West's position as the "aggressive" candidate.

Yes, he definitely has a better shot than West did, but the new FL-22 (as the current proposals say) is a 57% Obama district. It will be hard for him to win.
It will be. But Frankel has a way of pissing anyone/everyone off. I live a few cities away from her in the middle of Palm Beach County, where nothing she does affects us, but people still seem to dislike her. Its still a "lean Democratic" race, but Hasner has a much better shot then West would. Im going to be working in his place all day tommorow, and they have maps posted of the district. I will have to take a better look at it, because I really have not paid a whole bunch of attention to it.