Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: Miles on February 01, 2012, 05:49:09 AM



Title: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 01, 2012, 05:49:09 AM
()


District 1
DEM: Rep. G.K Butterfield (D-Wilson)
-Incumbent filed for 5th term.
REP: Peter DiLauro
LIB: Darryl Holloman

District 2
DEM: Steve Wilkins
REP: Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-Harnett)
-Incumbent seeking 2nd term.
LIB: Brian Irving (L)

District 3
DEM: Erick Anderson
REP: Rep. Walter Jones (R-Pitt)
-Incumbent filed seeking 10th term.

District 4
DEM: Rep. David Price (D-Chapel Hill)
-Incumbent seeking 13th term.
REP: Tim D'Annuzio (R)
LIB: Jim Allen (R)

District 5
DEM: Elisabeth Motsinger (D)
REP: Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-Avery)
-Incumbent seeking 5th term.

District 6
DEM: Tony Foriest
REP: Rep. John Howard Coble (R-Guilford)
-Incumbent seeking 15th term.

District 7[/u]
DEM: Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-Robeson)
-Incumbent seeking 8th term.
REP: David Rouzer

District 8
DEM: Rep. Larry Kissell (D-Montgomery)
-Incumbent seeking 3rd term.
REP: Richard Hudson

District 9
Rep. Sue W. Myrick (R-Mecklenburg)
-Incumbent will not seek 10th term. (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/07/1062548/-NC-09-Republican-Rep-Sue-Myrick-will-retire)
DEM: Jennifer Roberts
REP: Robert Pittenger
LIB: Curtis Campbell

District 10
DEM: Patsy Keever
REP:Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-Gaston)
-Incumbent seeking 5th term.

District 11
Rep. Heath Shuler (D-Haywood)
-Incumbent not running for 4th term. (http://www.wlos.com/shared/newsroom/top_stories/videos/wlos_vid_6560.shtml)
DEM: Hayden Rogers (D)
REP: Mark Meadows (R)

District 12
DEM: Rep. Mel Watt (D-Mecklenburg)
-Incumbent seeking for 11th term.
REP: Jack Brosch (R)

District 13
Rep. Brad Miller (D-Raleigh)
Incumbent not seeking 6th term. (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/26/1058699/-NC-04-NC-13:-Brad-Miller,-Democratic-congressman-and-friend-to-the-netroots,-will-retire)
DEM: Charles Malone
REP: George Holding



President/Governor numbers:
()


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: smoltchanov on February 01, 2012, 05:54:47 AM
Who are the most seious candidates against McIntyre, Kissel and Shuler? Most likely - state legislators? And most likely (it's Republican party and it's North Carolina after all) - very conservative?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 01, 2012, 06:14:52 AM
For Shuler I'd say it Jeff Hunt; he's the most entrenched. He's from Henderson county, but Shuler performs poorly in that part of the district anyway.

Both of McIntyre's have pros and cons. The GOP establishment seems to favor Rouzer; that's why they drew the 7th to include Johnston county. Still, I think Rouzer's appeal will be pretty limited to Johnston county.
Pantano has more name recognition in the rest of the district and he made a good showing in 2010. Pantano won Pender and Brunswick counties in 2010. The new 7th includes all of Brunswick, as well as the conservative parts of Pender and New Hanovor.
Bottom line: I think Pantano would be stronger, but the establishment will probably push for Rouzer.

Kissell better hopes he gets Robinson....


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: smoltchanov on February 01, 2012, 06:18:37 AM
Kissell better hopes he gets Robinson....

That famous mad ultrarightwinger? "Black Jesse Helms"?)))))


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 01, 2012, 06:22:31 AM
Kissell better hopes he gets Robinson....

That famous mad ultrarightwinger? "Black Jesse Helms"?)))))

He'd be the weakest opponent.

Kissell would be an underdog to any of the others.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: smoltchanov on February 01, 2012, 06:29:47 AM
Kissell better hopes he gets Robinson....

That famous mad ultrarightwinger? "Black Jesse Helms"?)))))

He'd be the weakest opponent.

Kissell would be an underdog to any of the others.

Thanks!


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: JohnnyLongtorso on February 01, 2012, 08:10:47 AM
Best case scenario for the Dems at this point looks like 9-4. Kissell and the open 13th are as good as gone, I doubt Shuler survives another term, and McIntyre is a tossup at best.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: minionofmidas on February 01, 2012, 08:14:10 AM
Best case scenario for the Dems at this point looks like 9-4. Kissell and the open 13th are as good as gone, I doubt Shuler survives another term, and McIntyre is a tossup at best.
Best case is 13-0 D.

Oh, you meant a realistic, yet somewhat D-favorable outcome. Yes, that would be 9-4. ;)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Dancing with Myself on February 01, 2012, 08:38:51 AM
So are the districts official now?

And from the way things look now, I think Districts 7,8,13 could be turnovers to the Republicans. I think Shuler will hold on though.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: minionofmidas on February 01, 2012, 08:50:10 AM
Shuler is hardest to place, but the others can be easily ranked

13 (goner, and not much to do with the old district)
2
8
7 (tossup / tilt R)

I'd put Shuler between 8 and 7 in that, but other placements can be argued. Not more gone than the 13th, though.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 01, 2012, 10:33:03 AM
So are the districts official now?

And from the way things look now, I think Districts 7,8,13 could be turnovers to the Republicans. I think Shuler will hold on though.
The lawsuits don't seem to be going anywhere.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Vern on February 01, 2012, 02:21:26 PM
I can see 5, 6 and maybe 10 giving Republicans headaches in the years to come. And maybe this year if the right candidates run.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Dancing with Myself on February 01, 2012, 09:04:14 PM
So are the districts official now?

And from the way things look now, I think Districts 7,8,13 could be turnovers to the Republicans. I think Shuler will hold on though.
The lawsuits don't seem to be going anywhere.

Well I watched a news story the other night about Howard Coble and they did not mention my county as the added areas, I live in Surry Co, so either they messed up or they were going by the old districts.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 02, 2012, 03:51:58 PM
Shuler's fundraising has dried up, so he's probably retiring.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/fourth-quarter-fundraising-winners-and-losers/2012/02/01/gIQAeAH8hQ_blog.html


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: krazen1211 on February 02, 2012, 04:13:47 PM
Heath Shuler is not seeking re-election!


R+1.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 02, 2012, 04:23:59 PM
GOD DAMMIT!!!



Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 02, 2012, 04:37:58 PM
Confirmation.

http://nationaljournal.com/congress/democratic-rep-heath-shuler-to-retire-20120202


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: smoltchanov on February 02, 2012, 10:23:10 PM
Obviously bad thing for Democrats. Only people like Shuler have chances to hold districts like his. Despite "progressive"'s cries that "he is not real Democrat" he IS a real Democrat in his district, where most Democrats are similar to him. If Democratic (or Republican) purists would have their way -  both parties (especially Democrats, because conservatives still outnumber liberals, though not all of them are "pure conservatives") would risk a "permanent minority" status with 40% of population calling itself "moderate" either voting for third-parties (such situation begs for 1-2 centrist parties in addition to existing two, which became more and more "pure activist") or - holding their nose - for "lesser evil" in each particular election


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on February 02, 2012, 10:27:16 PM

Quoted with added emotion.



Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: minionofmidas on February 03, 2012, 05:47:54 AM
Obviously bad thing for Democrats. Only people like Shuler have chances to hold districts like his.
And not that large a one, so it's not R+1 as we already counted it as such even with Shuler in. :P


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: morgieb on February 03, 2012, 06:14:02 AM
Looking at the margins, fmd the Republicans gerrymandered the sh**t out of this state.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: minionofmidas on February 03, 2012, 06:23:36 AM
Looking at the margins, fmd the Republicans gerrymandered the sh**t out of this state.
Yes... in other news, the sun rises in the east and Dems did a pretty decent job of gerrying the state in the past...


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 04, 2012, 01:19:18 AM
Seeing as McIntyre is the only NC conservaDam left with a decent chance of winning, I made a baseline chart.

This is how he would have to perform in each county to get 50.1% districtwide.
()

()


County Analysis:

Johnston:  A fairly conservative county. It was the geographical core of the old NC-02 (http://unlikelyvoter.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/NC02_110.png) , but it was more than canceled out by liberal parts of Cumberland and Wake counties. Etheridge only got 33% here in 2010 against Ellmers. I put McIntyre at 37%, assuming he faces Rouzer, who represents Johnston county. Maybe McIntyre could crack 40% here against Pantano.

Sampson: It doesn't vote for Democratic Presidential candidates, but all the statewide Democrats won here in 2008. Perdue got 53%; I think McIntyre could match that, of not do slightly better.

Duplin: Like Sampson, voted against Obama, but is Democratic on the state level. Perdue got 59% and Hagan got 53%; I think 60% is reasonable for McIntyre, since much of this county is already in his district.

Lenior: The liberal parts of this county are in NC-01.

Cumberland: The district now includes only a few (red) precincts here. 45% is probably in reach for McIntyre.

Robeson: The 7th now only has an small arm of Robeson left; McIntyre lives in this county and he's carried the county as a whole by overwhelming margins in the past. I think he could break 70% in the few precincts he has left here.

Hoke: I think these are fairly liberal precincts, so 75% shouldn't be out of reach.

Bladen: Though its trending R nationally, Bladen is solidly D at the state level. It gave Hagan 59%, Perdue 65% and it even voted for Marshall over Burr in 2010. I think McIntyre has cracked 80% here in the past, so he should be easily able to crack 70%.

Columbus:
This was one of the counties that swung most against Obama, but like Bladen, it gave Perdue 65%. At the very least, McIntyre should be able to match that.

Brunswick: Brunswick was one of the first counties in southeastern NC to shake off its Democratic roots. The only statewide Democrats who won here in 2008 were Hagan and Cooper; Pantano also won here in 2010. I have McIntyre running 2 points ahead of Perdue here, getting 47%. Maybe he could carry Brunswick county against Rouzer; I think overall, Rouzer's appeal in the southern counties will be limited.

New Hanover: The liberal parts of this county have been sucked out and put into Jones' CD3. I think McInTyre could hit 47%; probably better against Rouzer, but worse against Pantano.

Pender: Only a few precincts are left in the district. McIntyre was left with the relatively conservative parts of the county, which are based around Surf City.  



Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 04, 2012, 02:00:49 AM
Maybe if I feel depressed, I'll also do NC-08 ;)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on February 04, 2012, 02:31:02 AM

:(


[gives hug]




Btw, what are the odds that the latest map with be overruled by the courts?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 04, 2012, 02:35:15 AM

:(


[gives hug]




Btw, what are the odds that the latest map with be overruled by the courts?

I don't think the courts would throw out NC-11. :( All the litigation would likely deal with NC-1 and NC-12.

The only potential argument you could make about NC-11 is that Asheville is being removed from its historical community of interest.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 04, 2012, 06:57:47 PM
I'm planning on doing NC-08 soon,

I was sifting through some numbers and this really shows the huge amount of crossover support Perdue had in eastern NC.

In the parts Lenior county in the 7th district, Obama got 28%, Hagan got 35% but Perdue got 51%. Pretty impressive.  Surely McIntyre could do better than the 40% I gave him there.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 09, 2012, 09:45:55 PM
I'll post this here as well.

Some possible replacements for Sue Myrick:

- State Sen. Bob Rucho (http://www.ncleg.net/gascripts/members/viewMember.pl?sChamber=S&nUserID=11). My Senator :(. The mastermind behind the so-called "fair and legal" Republican redistricting maps. He Chaired the Senate redistricting Committee and drew the maps; much like Brad Miller did 10 years ago. He lives in Matthews. From what I've seen, he has a good relationship with Myrick.

- State Rep. Ruth Samuleson. (http://www.ncleg.net/gascripts/members/viewMember.pl?nUserID=563&sChamber=H) My representative :( . Her district includes the more affluent parts of south-central Mecklenburg county.

- House Speaker Thom Tillis. (http://www.ncleg.net/gascripts/members/viewMember.pl?sChamber=House&nUserID=565) Lives in northern Mecklenburg county. Still I'm not sure he'd want to run for Congress; with the Republicans having likely control of the Assembly for the next decade, his position as Speaker should be pretty secure. I've heard rumors that he plans to run against Hagan in 2014.

- John Lassiter. (http://charlotte.about.com/od/voterinformation/p/john_lassiter.htm) He was on the Charlotte city council and ran against Anthony Foxx for Charlotte mayor in 2009, losing by 3,000 votes. Haven't heard much from him since.

- Robert Pittenger.  (http://www.unctv.org/election/candidates/council_of_state/lt_governor_bios/robert_pittenger.html) Preceded Rucho in Senate District 39. Very rich. He ran for Lieutenant Governor in 2008, but lost 51-46 (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=37&year=2008&f=0&off=6&elect=0) to Walter Dalton. Pittenger hasn't ruled out a Congressional run.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Vern on February 10, 2012, 03:19:29 PM
Is Sue Myrick not running for re-election?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 10, 2012, 04:02:53 PM
Is Sue Myrick not running for re-election?

Nope, she's retiring.  (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/72575.html)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Vern on February 10, 2012, 05:31:37 PM
Is Sue Myrick not running for re-election?

Nope, she's retiring.  (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/72575.html)

NOOOOOOO!!!! She was a good congresswoman... :(


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 10, 2012, 06:57:06 PM
Is Sue Myrick not running for re-election?

Nope, she's retiring.  (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/72575.html)

NOOOOOOO!!!! She was a good congresswoman... :(

As her constituent, I beg to differ!


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: krazen1211 on February 27, 2012, 01:01:10 PM
Filings:

McIntyre has not yet filed.








NC-1 G. K. Butterfield (D-Inc)

NC-2 Sonya Holmes (R), Clement F. Munno (R), Renee Ellmers (R-Inc)

NC-3 Erik Anderson (D), Walter B. Jones (R-Inc), Frank Palombo (R)

NC-4 David Price (D-Inc), George Frank Hutchins (R)

NC-5 Elisabeth Motsinger (D), Virginia Foxx (R-Inc)

NC-6 Billy Yow (R), Jim Allen (R) Howard Coble (R-Inc), Lawrence (Larry) Sharp (LIB)

NC-7 Ilario Gregory Pantano (R), Randy Crow (R), David Rouzer (R)

NC-8 Larry Kissell (D-Inc), Marcus W. Williams (D), Richard Hudson (R), Vernon Robinson (R), Fred F. Steen II (R), Scott Keadle (R), John M. Whitley (R)

NC-9 (OPEN) Jennifer Roberts (D), Jim Pendergraph (R), Michael Shaffer (R), Mike Steinberg (R), Dan Barry (R), Andy Dulin (R), Edwin B. Peacock III (R), Ric Killian (R), Jon Gauthier (R), Curtis Campbell (LIB)

NC-10 Patsy Keever (D), Timothy Murphy (D), Ken H. Fortenberry (R), Patrick McHenry (R-Inc)

NC-11 (OPEN) Tom Hill (D), Cecil Bothwell (D), Mark Meadows (R), Chris Petrella (R), Kenny West (R), Spence Campbell (R),  Jeff Hunt (R), Ethan Wingfield (R)

NC-12 Mel Watt (D-Inc)

NC-13 (OPEN) Bernard A. Holliday (D), George Holding (R), Paul Y. Coble (R)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: krazen1211 on February 27, 2012, 01:01:53 PM
Legislative


House (120 seats)
64 seats have Democratic candidates (30 unopposed)
86 seats have Republican candidates (52 unopposed)
34 seats are contested by both parties
4 seats (H19, H34, H60, H114) have no candidates yet

61 of the 64 Democrats would have to win in November for Democrats to regain control.

Senate (50 seats)
26 seats have Democratic candidates (8 unopposed)
41 seats have Republican candidates (23 unoppsed)
18 seats are contested by both parties
1 seat (S14) has no candidates yet


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 27, 2012, 01:21:19 PM

Except he has... (http://www.wwaytv3.com/2012/02/27/mcintyre-files-to-run-for-ninth-term-congress)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on February 27, 2012, 09:48:06 PM
Who is Randy Crow? What county is he based in?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 27, 2012, 10:22:30 PM

Balden. McIntyre is going to get at least 70% there...




Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on February 28, 2012, 12:45:32 AM

Balden. McIntyre is going to get at least 70% there...

Do you mean Bladen? :P

I am more interested in his impact on the primary.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 28, 2012, 01:44:32 AM

Balden. McIntyre is going to get at least 70% there...

Do you mean Bladen? :P

I am more interested in his impact on the primary.

OMG, thats funny...Balden. lol

He seems like a pretty fringe candidate to me...I say still more or less a two-way contest between Rouzer and Pantano.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: I'm JewCon in name only. on March 03, 2012, 02:28:41 PM
I'm going to miss my congresswoman, Myrick.


If Ruth Samuelson, or Thom Tillis run I'll back them.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: minionofmidas on March 03, 2012, 02:34:19 PM

Except he has... (http://www.wwaytv3.com/2012/02/27/mcintyre-files-to-run-for-ninth-term-congress)
We live in the greatest nation in the world, and I am committed to sustaining the values that have made America great and increasing the opportunities that will help us blaze a path forward," McIntyre said in a statement.

LMAO. Talk about utterly contentless fluff.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on March 10, 2012, 07:03:18 PM
I updated the candidates list with the official filings.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on March 12, 2012, 07:41:16 PM
Pantano is up 2:1 on Rouzer.  (http://www.politico.com/blogs/david-catanese/2012/03/poll-pantano-doubling-up-rouzer-117097.html)It makes sense, since Pantano has more name recognition after running districtwide last cycle and Rouzer's only base is in Johnston county. No word on the general election though...


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on March 14, 2012, 10:43:22 AM
McHenry wins Buncombe county GOP straw poll 41-23 over Ken Fortenberry. (http://www.mountainx.com/article/40928/McHenry-and-Fortenberry-faceoff-at-BCGOP-forum-McHenry-wins-straw-poll)

At the forum, Fortenberry told the 70 or so attendees that it was time for a change in leadership. "If you love what's happening in Washington … then continue the course, keep sending the same people up there," he said. Alluding to the fact that McHenry is serving his fourth consecutive term after first being elected to congress at the age of 29, he added: "We don't need a career politician who has never had a real job."

lol



Over in the 9th, retiring Sue Myrick endorsed in the crowded 10-way GOP primary. (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/03/06/3072669/myrick-chooses-candidate-to-bless.html) She endorsed Mecklenburg county commissioner Jim Pendergraph. McHenry endorsed 2008 Lt. Gov. loser Bob Pittenger.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on March 22, 2012, 02:17:18 PM
Well, this makes my day a bit better. (http://www.scribd.com/doc/86346618/NC-08-Anzalone-Liszt-for-Larry-Kissell-March-2012)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: I'm JewCon in name only. on March 24, 2012, 07:29:29 PM
my G-d, Kissell just can't be beaten, can he? lol


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on March 24, 2012, 09:18:11 PM
my G-d, Kissell just can't be beaten, can he? lol

He has as a lot of blue-collar and rural appeal.

I think his vote against the healthcare bill will help him.

Even though its an internal poll, its still good news.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Brittain33 on March 26, 2012, 09:14:07 AM
Kissell is not going to win reelection unless his opponent is quite weak and Obama has coattails in the right places. I just don't see it. "Given sufficient resources..." Kissell is a lousy fundraiser.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: I'm JewCon in name only. on March 30, 2012, 04:02:28 PM
It's an internal poll? lol...


Also, I thought it was Shuler and McIntrye who voted against Healthcare? Not Kissell.



Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on March 30, 2012, 04:10:29 PM
It's an internal poll? lol...


Also, I thought it was Shuler and McIntrye who voted against Healthcare? Not Kissell.



All 3 of them voted no on its passage, but McIntyre was the only one to actually vote for its repeal.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: I'm JewCon in name only. on March 30, 2012, 04:58:16 PM
It's an internal poll? lol...


Also, I thought it was Shuler and McIntrye who voted against Healthcare? Not Kissell.



All 3 of them voted no on its passage, but McIntyre was the only one to actually vote for its repeal.

ah, ok. Thanks for the clarification :)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on April 03, 2012, 02:01:56 PM
Donald Rumsfeld is helping Pantano. (http://www.politico.com/blogs/david-catanese/2012/04/rummy-for-pantano-119456.html)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: I'm JewCon in name only. on April 05, 2012, 02:50:55 PM
Donald Rumsfeld is helping Pantano. (http://www.politico.com/blogs/david-catanese/2012/04/rummy-for-pantano-119456.html)

:D

Pantano for Congress!


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on April 05, 2012, 03:30:58 PM
Donald Rumsfeld is helping Pantano. (http://www.politico.com/blogs/david-catanese/2012/04/rummy-for-pantano-119456.html)

:D

Pantano for Congress!

The more I look at the race, the more I think that Rouzer is gonna get pwned. He has no appeal/name recognition outside of Johnston county.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on April 12, 2012, 11:26:34 AM
Howard Coble leads in GOP primary polling with 64% (http://www.news-record.com/blog/54431/entry/141430) and has a 75/8 favorable rating.

But, this pollster seems to think he could be forced into a runoff:

The polling firm asked respondents to react to "some information about Coble that could potentially come up during the course of the campaign," causing Coble's ballot score to drop to 47 percent, "below the crucial 50 percent mark."

IIRC, don't you only need to break 40% to avoid a runoff in NC?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on April 12, 2012, 11:37:25 AM
Donald Rumsfeld is helping Pantano. (http://www.politico.com/blogs/david-catanese/2012/04/rummy-for-pantano-119456.html)

:D

Pantano for Congress!

The more I look at the race, the more I think that Rouzer is gonna get pwned. He has no appeal/name recognition outside of Johnston county.

Ellmers is endorsing Rouzer. (http://projects.newsobserver.com/node/24262) Rouzer, not surprisingly, also has support from Tillis and Berger.

Jones endorsed Pantano last cycle, so I'm assuming that still holds.

Looks like immigration was a big issue at their last debate (http://www.wect.com/story/17336362/pantano-presses-rouzer-on-lobbying-for-amnesty-in-wect-debate)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on April 19, 2012, 12:39:40 AM
Even though most people think he already is a memeber, Kissell has offiically joined the Blue Dogs.  (http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/222337-kissell-joins-centrist-blue-dog-coalition)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 19, 2012, 12:43:27 AM
Why didn't Perdue veto this crazy ass gerrymander?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on April 19, 2012, 12:53:58 AM
Why didn't Perdue veto this crazy ass gerrymander?

Because the Governor can't veto redistricting in NC :(

It wasn't until 1996 that the Assembly gave the Governor's office veto power over bills; NC has had a historically weak executive branch.

However, the Democratic Assembly still kept power over the redistricting process...mainly because the legislators didn't want the Governor to veto gerrymanders like this.  (http://ncga.state.nc.us/representation/Content/Plans/PlanPage_DB_1991.asp?Plan=1992_Congressional_Base_Plan_10&Body=Congress) Of course, that kinda came back to bite them this time around...


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Napoleon on April 19, 2012, 08:05:46 AM
Donald Rumsfeld is helping Pantano. (http://www.politico.com/blogs/david-catanese/2012/04/rummy-for-pantano-119456.html)

"Helping", yeah.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on April 25, 2012, 12:57:53 PM
Again, Kissell gets the NRA endorsement. (http://www.yourdailyjournal.com/view/full_story/18332638/article-Kissell-Endorsed-by-NRA) 'Should help him in the new parts of the district.

In the 7th, McIntyre has raised over $1 million (http://watchdogs.blogs.starnewsonline.com/19990/mike-mcintyre-campaign-crosses-1-million-fundraising-mark/); his CoH advantage is also 4 times what Pantano and Rouzer have combined.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on April 25, 2012, 01:23:01 PM
My family and I went out and voted for Rouzer, yesterday. Turnout is lower than expected as far as early voting is concerned, at the place we went.

While driving back we discovered this empty store front with a bunch of Rouzer signs on the windows. Poking around, the space is loaded with hundreds of his signs, but no lights on or campaign people. Either some kind of massive hometurf operation is underway, or a significant amount of money has been waisted to purchase signs that will go to waste. ;)

What all is included in his State Senate district?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on April 25, 2012, 02:55:32 PM

What all is included in his State Senate district?

Rouzer currently represents all of Johnston county and parts Wayne county west of Goldsboro.

After redistricting, his seat was redrawn (http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Senate/Rucho_Senate_2/Maps/DistSimple/distSimple_10.pdf) to include most of Johnston plus Sampson and Duplin counties.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on April 25, 2012, 06:29:02 PM
Then all he has in the new 7th district is Johnston County, correct?


Any chance he gets Sampson in the primary?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on April 25, 2012, 06:37:19 PM
Then all he has in the new 7th district is Johnston County, correct?


Any chance he gets Sampson in the primary?

Yes, his only base in the new 7th is Johnston county.

I'm not sure...culturally, Sampson is rural but I think Rouzer could carry it because of its proximity to his Senate district.



Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on April 25, 2012, 06:40:20 PM
Then all he has in the new 7th district is Johnston County, correct?


Any chance he gets Sampson in the primary?

Yes, his only base in the new 7th is Johnston county.

I'm not sure...culturally, Sampson is rural but I think Rouzer could carry it because of its proximity to his Senate district.


You don't think Johnston is rural?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on April 25, 2012, 06:44:13 PM
Then all he has in the new 7th district is Johnston County, correct?


Any chance he gets Sampson in the primary?

Yes, his only base in the new 7th is Johnston county.

I'm not sure...culturally, Sampson is rural but I think Rouzer could carry it because of its proximity to his Senate district.


You don't think Johnston is rural?

Eh, I'd consider it more suburban/exurban....it isn't quite as rural as some other counties in the district (Columbus, Bladen, etc.).  


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on April 25, 2012, 06:53:31 PM
Then all he has in the new 7th district is Johnston County, correct?
Any chance he gets Sampson in the primary?

Yes, his only base in the new 7th is Johnston county.

I'm not sure...culturally, Sampson is rural but I think Rouzer could carry it because of its proximity to his Senate district.


You don't think Johnston is rural?

Eh, I'd consider it more suburban/exurban....it isn't quite as rural as some other counties in the district (Columbus, Bladen, etc.).  

It has more people and a growing population. But it is a conservative county that still thinks of itself as rural, if that makes sense. This is especially the case amongst Republicans.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on April 25, 2012, 07:05:22 PM
Then all he has in the new 7th district is Johnston County, correct?
Any chance he gets Sampson in the primary?

Yes, his only base in the new 7th is Johnston county.

I'm not sure...culturally, Sampson is rural but I think Rouzer could carry it because of its proximity to his Senate district.


You don't think Johnston is rural?

Eh, I'd consider it more suburban/exurban....it isn't quite as rural as some other counties in the district (Columbus, Bladen, etc.).  

It has more people and a growing population. But it is a conservative county that still thinks of itself as rural, if that makes sense. This is especially the case amongst Republicans.

Yeah, that makes sense.

I guess I kinda think Johnston is to Wake what Union or Iredell are to Mecklenburg...rural conservative counties that are growing from the exurban population.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Devils30 on May 02, 2012, 10:27:06 AM
Did the GOP make a mistake in drawing the new 13th? On paper it looks like a clear GOP win as mccain won it 54-45 but NC polls show Obama doing well in the Raleigh area. Because it's a high population growth area I could see it trending sharply Dem (maybe romney wins it by 4-7) this year and by 2016 it becomes a genuine tossup.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on May 02, 2012, 01:11:55 PM
Did the GOP make a mistake in drawing the new 13th? On paper it looks like a clear GOP win as mccain won it 54-45 but NC polls show Obama doing well in the Raleigh area. Because it's a high population growth area I could see it trending sharply Dem (maybe romney wins it by 4-7) this year and by 2016 it becomes a genuine tossup.

No, not really. Its really a 'diet coke' version of CD9; basically, CD13 is to Raleigh what CD9 is to Charlotte. Its trending D but it still reliably R in statewide races. Even the Wake part of the district would have voted for McCain.

It also doesn't help that Paul Coble, former Raleigh mayor, will be the Republican nominee :(


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on May 02, 2012, 02:20:46 PM
Did the GOP make a mistake in drawing the new 13th? On paper it looks like a clear GOP win as mccain won it 54-45 but NC polls show Obama doing well in the Raleigh area. Because it's a high population growth area I could see it trending sharply Dem (maybe romney wins it by 4-7) this year and by 2016 it becomes a genuine tossup.

No, not really. Its really a 'diet coke' version of CD9; basically, CD13 is to Raleigh what CD9 is to Charlotte. Its trending D but it still reliably R in statewide races. Even the Wake part of the district would have voted for McCain.

It also doesn't help that Paul Coble, former Raleigh mayor, will be the Republican nominee :(

Are you sure? Holding seems to have been running far more ads. And there are PACs running ads bashing Coble's record and votes increase Wake County's debt.

Also keep an eye on Elmers. She pissed off some people in Harnett county last year when the Tornadoes hit. She volunteered at a center in Raleigh, instead of one in hard hit Harnett county where she lives. And one of her opponents is running ads claiming she is pro-gay marriage because she opposes amendment 1.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on May 02, 2012, 03:08:41 PM
Did the GOP make a mistake in drawing the new 13th? On paper it looks like a clear GOP win as mccain won it 54-45 but NC polls show Obama doing well in the Raleigh area. Because it's a high population growth area I could see it trending sharply Dem (maybe romney wins it by 4-7) this year and by 2016 it becomes a genuine tossup.

No, not really. Its really a 'diet coke' version of CD9; basically, CD13 is to Raleigh what CD9 is to Charlotte. Its trending D but it still reliably R in statewide races. Even the Wake part of the district would have voted for McCain.

It also doesn't help that Paul Coble, former Raleigh mayor, will be the Republican nominee :(

Are you sure? Holding seems to have been running far more ads. And there are PACs running ads bashing Coble's record and votes increase Wake County's debt.

Also keep an eye on Elmers. She pissed off some people in Harnett county last year when the Tornadoes hit. She volunteered at a center in Raleigh, instead of one in hard hit Harnett county where she lives. And one of her opponents is running ads claiming she is pro-gay marriage because she opposes amendment 1.

I've heard more about Coble, so I could be wrong about that.

I would have liked to see Etheridge run for Congress again. Ellmers would probably still be the favorite, but Etheridge could have made it something of a competitive race.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on May 08, 2012, 01:39:08 PM
This is why I like Congressman Howard Coble so much. (http://www.wsoctv.com/news/news/special-reports/9-investigates-critics-say-congressional-pensions-/nNyKF/) I wish him well tonight in his primary.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on May 10, 2012, 12:38:49 PM
I'll have some stats on the primaries up after I get done with exams this weekend.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on May 10, 2012, 05:53:29 PM
Here's something I managed to cook-up today:

()

Again, my hat is off to Rouzer; geographically, he was at an obvious disadvantage. He did a great job of running up his totals in Johnston county (in his worst precinct there, he got 70%).

Pantano underperformed in New Hanover; he was consistently polling the mid-50s there. Also, there are relatively few registered Republicans in the rural counties (like Columbus and Bladen) which gave Pantano less support to draw from.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on May 10, 2012, 07:14:54 PM
Great work, Miles!


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 09, 2012, 09:01:57 AM
I haven't updated this in a while!

Well, in a very frustrating development, (http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/07/05/2181628/black-backers-desert-larry-kissell.html) the N.C. 8th Congressional District Black Leadership Caucus is pulling its support from Kissell. They're mad that Kissell is voting with Republicans on healthcare; I don't blame him, maybe if he can appeal of conservatives, he'll have a better shot at, 'ya know, winning.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 09, 2012, 09:49:07 AM
Also, there are three major Congressional Runoffs next week, all on the GOP side.

The first, in my own district 9, is former State Senator Robert Pittenger running against former Mecklenburg county sheriff Jim Pendergraph. In the primary, Pittenger, who has been largely self-funding since, (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/07/06/3364899/for-edge-in-9th-district-robert.html) got 35% to Pendergraph's 25% (this was an 11-man field).

I'm endorsing Pittenger, mainly because he seems more moderate, and because Pendergaph could potentially be worse than Myrick. In my area (southern Charlotte) I'm seeing more Pendergraph signs though.

Meanwhile, in the GOP runoff in the 8th district is turning into little more than a purity contest.  (http://www.reflector.com/ap/staten/hudson-keadle-vie-conservative-votes-nc-1126413) Richard Hudson was a staffer for Robin Hayes and his opponent, Scott Keadle, is a doctor. Hudson got endorsements from Mike Huckabee and, more recently,  Paul Ryan, (http://projects.newsobserver.com/node/25085) while the Club for Growth (http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/conservative_pac_drops_another_190k_for_keadle) is backing Keadle. Keadle kinda reminds me of Rick Scott.
In the primary, the field was quite fractured; Hudson got 32% to Keadle's 22%.

Finally, I've been following the runoff in CD11 the least. From what I gather, Mark Meadows is more or less the 'establishment candidate' as he has more endorsements from state legislators (http://www.mountainx.com/article/44046/Mark-Meadows-touts-new-endorsements-from-NC-lawmakers) while Vance Patterson is trying to appeal more to the tea party crowd.  (http://www2.mcdowellnews.com/news/2012/jul/07/patterson-speaks-freedom-rally-burke-ar-2414884/) Meadows got 38% in the primary to Patterson's 24%.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 11, 2012, 11:21:15 AM
While I was working out a few nights ago, I happened so see some parts of the 8th district GOP debate on TV. (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/07/06/3372412/hudson-and-keadle-trade-attacks.html) It was mostly just Republican buzzwords from either candidate.

My favorite part; both Republicans have such strong roots in the district:

Quote
They also questioned each others’ ties to the 8th District. Hudson pointed out that Keadle lives in the neighboring 9th District. Keadle shot back that Hudson had Virginia and Texas driver’s licenses in recent years, while working for members of Congress.

Kissell's family has lived in the 8th district for generations.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 11, 2012, 04:54:40 PM
Kissell and McIntyre both voted to repeal the healthcare bill today. (http://www.fayobserver.com/articles/2012/07/11/1189826?sac=fo.local) That should play well for them in their districts.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Devils30 on July 11, 2012, 08:34:27 PM
Rouzer's trouble in the southeastern part of NC might just send McIntyre back to Congress. That's where he routinely runs up huge margins even in GOP leaning counties at the presidential level.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 11, 2012, 09:31:39 PM
Rouzer's trouble in the southeastern part of NC might just send McIntyre back to Congress. That's where he routinely runs up huge margins even in GOP leaning counties at the presidential level.

I agree. Rouzer is pretty unknown there whereas McIntyre has been representing that area for 16 years.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: morgieb on July 11, 2012, 10:32:15 PM
What do you think will happen to McIntyre and Kissell?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 11, 2012, 10:47:24 PM
What do you think will happen to McIntyre and Kissell?

Well, they're both tracking rightward in terms of their votes; neither has endorsed Obama and I hear they might not even be in Charlotte for the DNC.

I say McIntyre is a modest favorite; his biggest obstacle will be Rouzer's strength in Jonhston county. However, if he makes it past this election, I think he can make inroads there, as its sent Etheridge to Congress for years. McIntyre has a very strong track record on veterans and military issues, which helps him win over voters who normally vote Republican.

Kissell is probably a tossup; he has great blue-collar appeal which helps him in the rural areas. He's also been endorsed by the NRA each time he's run.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 12, 2012, 06:35:00 PM
As if we also needed another pointless Democratic purity experiment. (http://www.laurinburgexchange.com/view/full_story/19273834/article-Democratic-chair-to-challenge-Kissell?instance=popular) Dan Blue, the mayor of a small town in Richmond county, was chosen by the 8th district black caucus to challenge Kissell from the left as a write-in.

Quote
“I will do everything in my power and will give you 200 percent, just like I did in the military for 24 years,” Blue told the group of about 35 that packed the small NAACP building in Hamlet...

...“But if (Blue) doesn’t win, he will make a statement,”


Yes, he'll make a statement, for sure. His statement will be that the black caucus would rather see a Republican elected than an independent-minded Democrat. What a shame.

The worst case here would be a repeat of LA-06 in 2008.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: smoltchanov on July 12, 2012, 11:22:21 PM
As if we also needed another pointless Democratic purity experiment. (http://www.laurinburgexchange.com/view/full_story/19273834/article-Democratic-chair-to-challenge-Kissell?instance=popular) Dan Blue, the mayor of a small town in Richmond county, was chosen by the 8th district black caucus to challenge Kissell from the left as a write-in.

Quote
“I will do everything in my power and will give you 200 percent, just like I did in the military for 24 years,” Blue told the group of about 35 that packed the small NAACP building in Hamlet...

...“But if (Blue) doesn’t win, he will make a statement,”


Yes, he'll make a statement, for sure. His statement will be that the black caucus would rather see a Republican elected than an independent-minded Democrat. What a shame.

The worst case here would be a repeat of LA-06 in 2008.

Fully agree. In general - i know few  more selfish organizations then "black caucuses" (they readily come into any sort of agreements with the most conservative Republicans at the expense of other Democrats if that agreements will increase a number of black-majority districts even by 1, they protest against election of white legislators (even liberal) in black-majority districts, because they "ought" to elect blacks (may be in such case white-majority districts "must" elect whites? And David Duke simply copied their logic???). And so on.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: morgieb on July 13, 2012, 03:32:52 AM
What a tool. Doesn't he realise that Kissell is as liberal as his electorate lets him?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: smoltchanov on July 13, 2012, 05:33:24 AM
What a tool. Doesn't he realise that Kissell is as liberal as his electorate lets him?

Probably - no. I was always surprised to hear from, say, partisan Democrats (Republicans are the same if not worse) something like: "Gene Taylor is a conservative, i don't like him and want a true progressive..". My next phrase always was: "In his district???????!!!!" Gene Taylor was the most progressive congressman that MS-04 could elect (you may look at his predecessors like Lott and Colmer if in doubt). For me that was an automatic "period!" and automatic support. But - not for all. (For Republicans - vice versa: " I want a conservative!" - "Where, in MA-06, CT-05 and similar districts??!! No way".... and so on...)

In NC-08 Democratic candidate must be at least moderate-conservative to even have a chance. Yes, probably less conservative then Republican candidate, but not by much...


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Mr.Phips on July 14, 2012, 10:43:07 AM
What do you think will happen to McIntyre and Kissell?

Well, they're both tracking rightward in terms of their votes; neither has endorsed Obama and I hear they might not even be in Charlotte for the DNC.

I say McIntyre is a modest favorite; his biggest obstacle will be Rouzer's strength in Jonhston county. However, if he makes it past this election, I think he can make inroads there, as its sent Etheridge to Congress for years. McIntyre has a very strong track record on veterans and military issues, which helps him win over voters who normally vote Republican.

Kissell is probably a tossup; he has great blue-collar appeal which helps him in the rural areas. He's also been endorsed by the NRA each time he's run.

I dont get how Republicans were able to remove Johnston county from NC-02(which gave Ellmers her entire margin of victory in 2010) without making that district much more Democratic.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: nclib on July 14, 2012, 11:09:38 AM
What do you think will happen to McIntyre and Kissell?

Well, they're both tracking rightward in terms of their votes; neither has endorsed Obama and I hear they might not even be in Charlotte for the DNC.

I say McIntyre is a modest favorite; his biggest obstacle will be Rouzer's strength in Jonhston county. However, if he makes it past this election, I think he can make inroads there, as its sent Etheridge to Congress for years. McIntyre has a very strong track record on veterans and military issues, which helps him win over voters who normally vote Republican.

Kissell is probably a tossup; he has great blue-collar appeal which helps him in the rural areas. He's also been endorsed by the NRA each time he's run.

I dont get how Republicans were able to remove Johnston county from NC-02(which gave Ellmers her entire margin of victory in 2010) without making that district much more Democratic.

Most of Ellmers' CD is new territory.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Talleyrand on July 14, 2012, 11:21:07 AM
What do you think of Hayden Rogers' chances in NC-11? Is he 100% toast or is there some route for victory? His profile and fundraising aren't bad, at least from my perspective.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 14, 2012, 11:30:56 AM
What do you think will happen to McIntyre and Kissell?

Well, they're both tracking rightward in terms of their votes; neither has endorsed Obama and I hear they might not even be in Charlotte for the DNC.

I say McIntyre is a modest favorite; his biggest obstacle will be Rouzer's strength in Jonhston county. However, if he makes it past this election, I think he can make inroads there, as its sent Etheridge to Congress for years. McIntyre has a very strong track record on veterans and military issues, which helps him win over voters who normally vote Republican.

Kissell is probably a tossup; he has great blue-collar appeal which helps him in the rural areas. He's also been endorsed by the NRA each time he's run.

I dont get how Republicans were able to remove Johnston county from NC-02(which gave Ellmers her entire margin of victory in 2010) without making that district much more Democratic.

Most of Ellmers' CD is new territory.

Yep; 71% of the district is new.

()

Adding Moore and most of Randolph more than compensated for the loss of Johnston.

What do you think of Hayden Rogers' chances in NC-11? Is he 100% toast or is there some route for victory? His profile and fundraising aren't bad, at least from my perspective.

He was probably the best non-Shuler Democrat. Shuler could have held on, IMO. That said, Rogers does look like he's running a good campaign.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 17, 2012, 09:56:24 PM
Hudson ran the table in the CD8 primary with 64% and sweeping all counties:

()


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 17, 2012, 10:26:20 PM
The CD11 primary was no contest; Meadows landslide, though Patterson took Burke and Cherokee counties.
()
Meadows- 76.3%
Patterson-23.7%


The 9th district was the closet of the night. Pendergraph got 51.4% in Mecklenburg but got blown away in the other counties, getting 29.7% in Iredell and 43% in Union.
()
Pittenger- 52.9%
Pendergraph- 47.1%


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 17, 2012, 10:39:52 PM
lol, 'read this in an article tonight:

"Keadle lost his third bid for U.S. House, running each in three different districts." (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/07/17/3388590/hudson-to-take-on-kissell-in-us.html#storylink=cpy)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 18, 2012, 01:42:11 AM
The quarterly fundraising numbers out yesterday (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/17/1110979/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2Q-2012-House-fundraising-reports-roundup) are better than I expected for Team D. Kissell, who is known for his historically weak fundraising, and Hayden Rogers are both up against their freshly-determined opponents. In fact, NC-08 was one of the top 5 districts where the DCCC spent the most last cycle. I do expect that Hudson and Meadows will improve though, now that they're actually the nominees and all.

CD8

Kissell
Raised- $266K
CoH- $609K

Hudson
Raised- $254K
CoH- $174K

CD11

Rogers
Raised- $191K
CoH- $192K

Meadows
Raised- $108K
CoH- $34K

Finally, this helps to justify my Lean D rating for NC-07; Rouzer, who got the party nod more than two months ago, badly trails McIntyre. At this time last cycle, McIntyre was at a $394 CoH edge over Ilario Pantano and was actually noticeably outraised that quarter; currently, though, he leads Rouzer by about 6:1 in terms of CoH.

CD7

McIntyre
Raised- $404K
CoH- $1,076K

Rouzer
Raised- $315K
CoH- $172K

In the NC-09 primary, Pittinger made a $940K self-loan last quarter, which helped to tilt the outcome in his favor tonight. Overall, he outspent Pendergraph by more than 5:1; Pittenger spent nearly $1.5 million compared to Pendergraph's  $280K.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Devils30 on July 19, 2012, 07:19:06 PM
NC-7 is much more Democratic at the local level. If McIntyre can get 35% in Johnston and run up big margins in the southeast he should take it.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 19, 2012, 11:47:11 PM
NC-7 is much more Democratic at the local level. If McIntyre can get 35% in Johnston and run up big margins in the southeast he should take it.

Yep. Even if he got 33% in Johnston (what Etheridge got in 2010) he'd need to get 55% everywhere else.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MD on July 30, 2012, 03:51:08 PM
NC 7 definitely looks like a hold for the D's.  The R's will probably have a decent night but they won't get that seat.  When an internal poll released by a candidate has that said candidate down, then you know you are in trouble.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 30, 2012, 03:59:26 PM
NC 7 definitely looks like a hold for the D's.  The R's will probably have a decent night but they won't get that seat.  When an internal poll released by a candidate has that said candidate down, then you know you are in trouble.

Thanks for mentioning that. I just found the poll you were referring to. (http://watchdogs.blogs.starnewsonline.com/20892/rouzer-poll-shows-tight-race-in-7th-congressional-district/)

Public Opinion Strategies had Ilario Pantano up 7 in September of 2010 and McIntyre ended up winning by 8.

I agree with you in that I'd rank CD7 as a Lean Democratic hold, and this polling seems to confirm that. Romney is also leading by 17 in that sample, so McIntyre is still receiving a strong amount of crossover support.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MD on July 30, 2012, 04:02:27 PM
For the record, I am a Republican but I call it as I see it.  I see the R's netting something out of NC but not from this seat. 


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on July 30, 2012, 04:05:05 PM
The R's are guaranteed to take CD13 and they should also take CD11, but I can see CD11 being closer than some would think.

I'd really like to see some polling from the 8th. Kissell was up 10 a few months ago, but there have been some developments in the race since then.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: MD on July 30, 2012, 06:59:19 PM
Yea, seldom do these things work out like they look on paper in the beginning. 


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on August 02, 2012, 05:44:15 PM
This is map is  from 2008, but I think it has some relevance this year:

()

Even though 2008 was a great Democratic year and Rouzer was running in an open seat, he barely won his State Senate district. He got won the seat with 52%; McCain got 63% while McCrory and Dole each got 57%.

The important thing here is that Rouzer only won Jonhston county by 141 votes. It was a good scenario for Democrats, but it still shows that McIntyre can make inroads there.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on August 05, 2012, 11:25:26 AM
Well, some good news. Kissell has got the support of the Robeson County Black Caucus. (http://www.yourdailyjournal.com/view/full_story/19591330/article-Kissell-gains-support-of-Robeson-Black-Caucus?instance=popular) This comes as black leadership groups elsewhere in the district have refused to back him.

This does make sense, when you consider that the Robeson Dems have been supporting McIntyre, who was always more conservative than Kissell,  for years


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on August 20, 2012, 09:23:30 AM
I put together a list of county benchmarks for Kissell. He could do better or worse, but this is pretty good general picture of how he would need to perform to reach 50.1% overall:

()

So on map, his performance here would look like this (using my 5% scale):

()


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Vern on August 25, 2012, 03:01:15 PM
I don't see him getting the 40% in Union.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on August 25, 2012, 03:19:39 PM
I don't see him getting the 40% in Union.

Union will be though, I agree. He's already represented a pretty big swath of it for 4 years now though. Also, Obama got 39% in the Union part of the district and Hagan got 42%, so I think 40% would be a decent benchmark for Kissell.

I think that, other than the counties that he's safe in, Kissell needs to focus the most on Cabarrus.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Mr.Phips on August 25, 2012, 03:25:34 PM
In the 1970's and 1980's, Bill Hefner used to get elected in a district even worse for Democrats than the new NC-08. 


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on August 28, 2012, 09:51:49 PM
So I've had a few encounters with Randy Crow on Facebook; he was running in the CD7 R primary, but was little more than an afterthought as the race featured a close match between Rouzer and Pantano.

In any case, after garnering about 6% in the primary, he apparently has nothing better to do than troll McIntyre's wall and recite talking points.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario) on August 29, 2012, 04:05:20 AM
I don't see him getting the 40% in Union.

Union will be though, I agree. He's already represented a pretty big swath of it for 4 years now though. Also, Obama got 39% in the Union part of the district and Hagan got 42%, so I think 40% would be a decent benchmark for Kissell.

I think that, other than the counties that he's safe in, Kissell needs to focus the most on Cabarrus.

Indeed, his performance in Cabarrus will make or break him. 44.5% will be difficult- even in 2008 he didn't break 43%.

Kissell, if anything, seems to overperform in Union, however. In 2008, he outperformed Obama by over two points in the portion of the county he currently represents, and in 2010 he outperformed Obama by about a point and a half. Even with the addition of more Republican areas of the county, I see 40% in Union as being easier to achieve than 44.5% in Cabarrus.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on September 10, 2012, 06:28:23 PM
Well, we've had a pretty mum few weeks for Congressional races in NC. Wait, wasn't there some big event in Charlotte last week!?

Larry Kissell has earned the title of the "Most Elusive Democrat in North Carolina," (http://www.bradenton.com/2012/09/06/4187934/looking-for-larry-kissell-nc-democrat.html) because he's keeping his association with Obama at arms' length, displayed most recently through his absence at the DNC. This seemed to be well-informed move on Kissell's part:

Quote
While some residents thought it was “odd” or “weird” that Kissell was skipping the convention, most residents who spoke to me said they saw the decision as a sign of independence.

Its also encouraging to hear from locals like this guy:

Quote
“He’s actually the only Democrat that I’d vote for,” said Bob Britton, eating a chicken salad sandwich at the store. “He’s the only Democrat who hasn’t done something to make me dislike him.”

And this guy:
Quote
David Jenkins, a Republican, said it was “kind of weird” that Kissell missed the convention, since it is so close.

But he said it shows Kissell is thinking for himself and is not letting the party think for him.

“I don’t care for Obama,” said Jenkins, “but I’ll vote for Kissell.”

Meanwhile, next door in CD7, McIntyre actually did attend the DNC. (http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/09/03/2314480/dome-mcintyre-at-dnc-after-all.html) He addressed the NC delegates, but otherwise laid low throughout the course of the convention.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on September 12, 2012, 07:09:15 PM
McIntyre is out with a new add which mostly emphasizes his socially conservative credentials.  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LwUMYJBqOY)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on September 12, 2012, 07:17:08 PM
Richard Hudson's RNC speech. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yP5ROjxojzY)

Its very bland and generic while he's weak on the delivery, if I do say so myself.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on September 15, 2012, 12:59:11 AM
Roll Call was out with an article on Friday (http://www.rollcall.com/news/mike_mcintyre_hanging_tough_in_north_carolina-217600-1.html) highlighting McIntyre' surprisingly strong resilience.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on September 20, 2012, 01:03:10 PM
Well, the DCCC can go screw itself: (http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/09/dccc-pulls-one.php)

Quote
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has cut one week of advertising from incumbent Rep. Larry Kissell, D-N.C. The committee won't run ads in North Carolina's 8th District the week of Oct. 2 - 8....

Meanwhile, the DCCC announced they would begin running ads in Rep. Mary Bono Mack's, D-Calif., district, where they haven't been on the air previously.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Incipimus iterum on September 20, 2012, 01:19:24 PM
Well, the DCCC can go screw itself: (http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/09/dccc-pulls-one.php)

Quote
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has cut one week of advertising from incumbent Rep. Larry Kissell, D-N.C. The committee won't run ads in North Carolina's 8th District the week of Oct. 2 - 8....

Meanwhile, the DCCC announced they would begin running ads in Rep. Mary Bono Mack's, D-Calif., district, where they haven't been on the air previously.
wow...


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: krazen1211 on September 20, 2012, 01:33:56 PM
Well, the DCCC can go screw itself: (http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/09/dccc-pulls-one.php)

Quote
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has cut one week of advertising from incumbent Rep. Larry Kissell, D-N.C. The committee won't run ads in North Carolina's 8th District the week of Oct. 2 - 8....

Meanwhile, the DCCC announced they would begin running ads in Rep. Mary Bono Mack's, D-Calif., district, where they haven't been on the air previously.

That's quite silly.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on September 20, 2012, 02:33:58 PM
Well, the DCCC can go screw itself: (http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/09/dccc-pulls-one.php)

Quote
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has cut one week of advertising from incumbent Rep. Larry Kissell, D-N.C. The committee won't run ads in North Carolina's 8th District the week of Oct. 2 - 8....

Meanwhile, the DCCC announced they would begin running ads in Rep. Mary Bono Mack's, D-Calif., district, where they haven't been on the air previously.

That's quite silly.

Exactly.

I don't see why they'd spend money going after an entrenched incumbent like Bono Mack (who's pretty clearly favored) as opposed to investing in a tossup race like Kissell's.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Mr.Phips on September 20, 2012, 02:47:31 PM
Well, the DCCC can go screw itself: (http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/09/dccc-pulls-one.php)

Quote
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has cut one week of advertising from incumbent Rep. Larry Kissell, D-N.C. The committee won't run ads in North Carolina's 8th District the week of Oct. 2 - 8....

Meanwhile, the DCCC announced they would begin running ads in Rep. Mary Bono Mack's, D-Calif., district, where they haven't been on the air previously.

That's quite silly.

Exactly.

I don't see why they'd spend money going after an entrenched incumbent like Bono Mack (who's pretty clearly favored) as opposed to investing in a tossup race like Kissell's.

A lot of entrenched Dem incumbents lost in 2010;


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 20, 2012, 02:50:25 PM
Well, the DCCC can go screw itself: (http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/09/dccc-pulls-one.php)

Quote
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has cut one week of advertising from incumbent Rep. Larry Kissell, D-N.C. The committee won't run ads in North Carolina's 8th District the week of Oct. 2 - 8....

Meanwhile, the DCCC announced they would begin running ads in Rep. Mary Bono Mack's, D-Calif., district, where they haven't been on the air previously.

That's quite silly.

Exactly.

I don't see why they'd spend money going after an entrenched incumbent like Bono Mack (who's pretty clearly favored) as opposed to investing in a tossup race like Kissell's.

A lot of entrenched Dem incumbents lost in 2010;

Also the race between Mary Bono Mack and Raul Ruiz is actually pretty clearly a tossup at this point.  I'm not saying that they should necessarily triage Kissell (though on the other hand, who knows what the internal polling is showing), but we certainly have a better chance of picking up that seat than we do of keeping Kissell's seat.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on September 20, 2012, 04:44:01 PM
Well, the DCCC can go screw itself: (http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/09/dccc-pulls-one.php)

Quote
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has cut one week of advertising from incumbent Rep. Larry Kissell, D-N.C. The committee won't run ads in North Carolina's 8th District the week of Oct. 2 - 8....

Meanwhile, the DCCC announced they would begin running ads in Rep. Mary Bono Mack's, D-Calif., district, where they haven't been on the air previously.

That's quite silly.

Exactly.

I don't see why they'd spend money going after an entrenched incumbent like Bono Mack (who's pretty clearly favored) as opposed to investing in a tossup race like Kissell's.

A lot of entrenched Dem incumbents lost in 2010;

Also the race between Mary Bono Mack and Raul Ruiz is actually pretty clearly a tossup at this point.  I'm not saying that they should necessarily triage Kissell (though on the other hand, who knows what the internal polling is showing), but we certainly have a better chance of picking up that seat than we do of keeping Kissell's seat.

Richard Hudson's own internal polling is showing him leading Kissell by only a few points.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on September 20, 2012, 04:56:27 PM
On the State Senate side, here's an interactive map of the 50 Senate districts. (http://www.wral.com/news/state/nccapitol/story/11544087/)

I don't think the Democrats have a chance at retaking the chamber this year, as the article speculates, but they may net a few seats at best.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on September 20, 2012, 05:12:28 PM
Well, the DCCC can go screw itself: (http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/09/dccc-pulls-one.php)

Quote
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has cut one week of advertising from incumbent Rep. Larry Kissell, D-N.C. The committee won't run ads in North Carolina's 8th District the week of Oct. 2 - 8....

Meanwhile, the DCCC announced they would begin running ads in Rep. Mary Bono Mack's, D-Calif., district, where they haven't been on the air previously.

That's quite silly.

Exactly.

I don't see why they'd spend money going after an entrenched incumbent like Bono Mack (who's pretty clearly favored) as opposed to investing in a tossup race like Kissell's.

A lot of entrenched Dem incumbents lost in 2010;

Also the race between Mary Bono Mack and Raul Ruiz is actually pretty clearly a tossup at this point.  I'm not saying that they should necessarily triage Kissell (though on the other hand, who knows what the internal polling is showing), but we certainly have a better chance of picking up that seat than we do of keeping Kissell's seat.

Richard Hudson's own internal polling is showing him leading Kissell by only a few points.

I call them as I see them :P


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on September 22, 2012, 04:30:49 PM
There will be an 8th district debate on Monday. (http://www.salisburypost.com/News/092212-Political-notebook)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on September 27, 2012, 09:48:44 AM
Hmmmm. (http://projects.newsobserver.com/node/25852)

Quote
The Democrats are placing their bets, and they like Mike McIntyre's chances, but appear to be growing skeptical about Larry Kissell's prospects.

At least that is the takeaway from a Politico article about the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reshuffling their resources. The article says they are sending more money to McIntyre in his efforts to defeat challenger David Rouzer in the 7th.

The DCCC has already pulled back on two weeks of TV reservations in defense of Kissell who is being challenged by Richard Hudson in the 8th.

Read more here: http://projects.newsobserver.com/node/25852#storylink=cpy


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on September 27, 2012, 09:52:19 AM
How did the debate go?


Also, I am getting sick of these radio ads for Tim D'Annunzio and George Holding. I wanna listen to music to get away from politics, not hear more of it. >:(


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on September 27, 2012, 10:01:05 AM
I actually haven't watched it yet :(

But from what I gather, (http://www.laurinburgexchange.com/view/full_story/20258054/article-Kissell--Hudson-debate-senior-issues?instance=popular) it was pretty much what you would expect: Hudson went on the offensive while Kissell continued to cast himself as a centrist. Overall, it sounds like Hudson gave the better performance.

There is another debate scheduled in Lumberton during the first week of October, IIRC.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on October 26, 2012, 12:12:17 PM
Its been a while.

Anyway, today Sabato moved NC-07 from Tossup to Lean D. (http://www.wwaytv3.com/2012/10/25/pundit-moves-7th-district-race-from-toss-to-leans-democrat)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on October 27, 2012, 04:45:02 PM
I updated the first post; I now only have the names of the official nominees listed. Let me know if you find errors!


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on October 30, 2012, 02:58:48 AM
Lately, McIntyre has been emphasizing his support from mayors in CD7. (http://watchdogs.blogs.starnewsonline.com/21537/mike-mcintyre-announces-support-from-7th-congressional-district-mayors/) Roughly 75% are endorsing him.
 
He was also more recently out with endorsements from a handful of Johnston County mayors.  (http://www.theherald-nc.com/2012/10/13/24742/johnston-county-mayors-endorse.html) This is important because they can help him make inroads there in the future.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on October 30, 2012, 03:08:34 AM
As for CD8, the Charlotte Observer was had an article (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/10/20/3610285/kissell-has-beat-long-odds-before.html) about how Kissell has beaten the odds before.

This is the only where I've reached into my own pocket (because, 'ya know, we college students can spend millions of our own money to influence these races).


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on October 31, 2012, 01:13:34 PM
Not much in the way of polling lately in CD7 or 8. Still, editorials like this (http://www.the-dispatch.com/article/20121031/OPINION02/310319986/-1/news?Title=Keep-Kissell-in-office) and this (http://www2.independenttribune.com/news/2012/oct/31/letter-kissell-moderate-both-parties-can-support-ar-2741201/) are good for Kissell.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 03, 2012, 04:18:24 PM
I'm trying to make Presidential predictions for NC by CD. This, of course, led me to making some swing/trend maps:

()
()

()

()


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 05, 2012, 09:44:08 PM
My Presidential projections by CD:

()


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Gass3268 on November 05, 2012, 10:06:55 PM
Good luck in all of the North Carolina races tomorrow Miles!


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 05, 2012, 10:22:05 PM
Thanks!


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 07, 2012, 05:22:30 AM
Well, I'm still proud of Congressman Kissell.

()


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 07, 2012, 03:49:06 PM
McIntyre is claiming victory (http://www.jdnews.com/news/local/mike-mcintyre-holds-507-vote-lead-claimed-victory-late-tuesday-1.45210) with a 507-vote lead. A recount in CD7 seems imminent.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Gass3268 on November 08, 2012, 01:44:08 PM
Miles:

I am shocked that the Republican only won the 9th district by 6% (about 23,000 votes). Looking at this result and the fact that they almost rejected the ban on same-sex marriage in the 9th, is it possible given curernt trends that this seat could become competative? 


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Frodo on November 10, 2012, 01:08:15 PM
Assuming Rep. Mike McIntyre survives the recount process, he looks to be the lone white Democratic survivor in a state that has gone Republican..  

The question is, will he want to run for another term in 2014 against another strong Republican challenger?  Or will he rather retire, letting his seat go GOP as well? 


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 10, 2012, 01:11:46 PM
Miles:

I am shocked that the Republican only won the 9th district by 6% (about 23,000 votes). Looking at this result and the fact that they almost rejected the ban on same-sex marriage in the 9th, is it possible given curernt trends that this seat could become competative? 

One of the things in NC that I was surprised about was that Roberts did better than Kissell! I guess that speaks to the trends of their districts.

I think a few things accounted for that. First, Roberts has been on the County Commission for 8 years, so she was much better known that the previous Dems that have run in CD9. Also, Pittenger doesn't have the personal popularity that Myrick had throughout the district (she actually endorsed his opponent in the runoff). 

Could we conceivably pick this seat up sometime during the decade? Yes. What worries me is Pittenger's personal wealth; he plunked down at least $2 million of his own just to get the nomination. If we were to win this district, the Democrat would need to overcome a financial disadvantage.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 10, 2012, 01:28:10 PM
Assuming Rep. Mike McIntyre survives the recount process, he looks to be the lone white Democratic survivor in a state that has gone Republican..  

The question is, will he want to run for another term in 2014 against another strong Republican challenger?  Or will he rather retire, letting his seat go GOP as well? 

I have a guy feeling that McIntyre won't retire next cycle. Rouzer could run again, but he might bd viewed as damaged goods. Ditto with Pantano; if he ran in 2014, that would be his third run for Congress.

There are a few others from the Assembly who could run in 2014:

- Sen. Thom Goolsby (New Hanover)
- Sen. Bill Rabon (Brunswick, Pender, Bladen)
- Rep. Rick Catlin (New Hanover)



Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: CountryRoads on November 10, 2012, 02:22:54 PM
I, for one, am glad that McIntrye might win. I liked Pantano way more the Rouzer. Don't care what anyone says, Pantano is a hero.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: nclib on November 10, 2012, 02:44:19 PM
Assuming Rep. Mike McIntyre survives the recount process, he looks to be the lone white Democratic survivor in a state that has gone Republican..  

The question is, will he want to run for another term in 2014 against another strong Republican challenger?  Or will he rather retire, letting his seat go GOP as well? 

I have a guy feeling that McIntyre won't retire next cycle. Rouzer could run again, but he might bd viewed as damaged goods. Ditto with Pantano; if he ran in 2014, that would be his third run for Congress.

There are a few others from the Assembly who could run in 2014:

- Sen. Thom Goolsby (New Hanover)
- Sen. Bill Rabon (Brunswick, Pender, Bladen)
- Rep. Rick Catlin (New Hanover)



Have you both forgotten my Rep. David Price (NC-4)?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 10, 2012, 04:36:18 PM
I, for one, am glad that McIntrye might win. I liked Pantano way more the Rouzer. Don't care what anyone says, Pantano is a hero.

There is a reason I voted against Pantano, in spite of tremendous issues with Rouzer. And I am glad I did that because I don't think Pantano would have come that close.

I also didn't like the idea of being represented by someone way down in Wilmington, versus someone from right down the road (WE SHOULDN'T BE IN THIS DAMN DISTRICT >:( >:( >:()


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 12, 2012, 02:43:45 PM
I, for one, am glad that McIntrye might win. I liked Pantano way more the Rouzer. Don't care what anyone says, Pantano is a hero.

There is a reason I voted against Pantano, in spite of tremendous issues with Rouzer. And I am glad I did that because I don't think Pantano would have come that close.

I also didn't like the idea of being represented by someone way down in Wilmington, versus someone from right down the road (WE SHOULDN'T BE IN THIS DAMN DISTRICT >:( >:( >:()

The first Republican draft of the 7th made much more sense from a CoI perspective.

CD7 would have extended to Onslow and Carteret Counties and kept New Hanover intact (http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Congress/Rucho-Lewis_Congress_1/Maps/DistSimple/distSimple_7.pdf) while CD2 would still be centered around Johnston. (http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Congress/Rucho-Lewis_Congress_1/Maps/DistSimple/distSimple_2.pdf)



Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 15, 2012, 01:47:01 AM
McIntyre is holding onto a 420 vote lead in CD7. After the official canvas on Friday, a winner will be declared.  (http://www.starnewsonline.com/article/20121114/ARTICLES/121119851?Title=McIntyre-Rouzer-keeping-tabs-on-tally-recount-still-possible) The loser can request a recount though.

The other major race that remains in the air is the Lieutenant Governor's race. (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/11/14/3665761/coleman-wants-more-ballots-counted.html) Dan Forest, the stepson of Sue Myrick, is standing at a 10,300 vote lead (out of 4.3 million cast) over Linda Coleman, who was the Director of State Employment under Perdue. There were about 50,000 provisional ballots cast statewide that are being counted.

Personally, I'd really like to see Coleman win this; she's run a great campaign and she has the same last name as me, which would be neat :).

If Forest wins, it will probably be because of the residual good will towards his mother in the Charlotte area coupled with McCrory's coattails there; Forest held Coleman to under 60% (59.9%) in Mecklenburg compared to Obama's 60.7%.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 16, 2012, 01:25:28 AM
Up to a 483 vote margin for McIntyre. (http://watchdogs.blogs.starnewsonline.com/21788/mike-mcintyres-lead-grows-to-483-votes-in-7th-congressional-district/)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 16, 2012, 10:57:52 PM
Well folks, after all 12 CD7 counties were canvassed, McInytre has declared victory. (http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/11/16/2488787/mcintyre-declares-victory-as-final.html) His lead grew to 655 votes, though Rouzer can still request a recount.

In the LG race, Coleman picked up a few thousand votes; she's now up to 49.92% and trailing by about 6,300 votes (down from 10,300). This entitles her to request a recount. I really wish a Libertarian had run this race...


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 18, 2012, 04:02:06 AM
CDs 9 and 11.

()

Roberts won the Mecklenburg part 50-47 but lost 2:1 in Union and Iredell. She did much better than I was expecting. Maybe in 2016...

Rogers did the best relative to Obama in the counties near the western tip of the 11th district. Still Meadows won 57.4%-42.6%.

I still think Shuler could have held it.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Frodo on November 18, 2012, 01:18:16 PM
Assuming Rep. Mike McIntyre survives the recount process, he looks to be the lone white Democratic survivor in a state that has gone Republican..  

The question is, will he want to run for another term in 2014 against another strong Republican challenger?  Or will he rather retire, letting his seat go GOP as well? 

I have a guy feeling that McIntyre won't retire next cycle. Rouzer could run again, but he might bd viewed as damaged goods. Ditto with Pantano; if he ran in 2014, that would be his third run for Congress.

There are a few others from the Assembly who could run in 2014:

- Sen. Thom Goolsby (New Hanover)
- Sen. Bill Rabon (Brunswick, Pender, Bladen)
- Rep. Rick Catlin (New Hanover)



I think you should probably enjoy the fact that he is in office now, for Republicans will likely run much better candidates against him next time -as well as against John Barrow.

Neither Mike nor John can escape their colleagues' fate and buck the Republican trend in the South forever. 


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 18, 2012, 03:32:13 PM
Here's the NC Congressional vote by county. CD splits in counties are the gray lines.

()

And here's the data. For those not familiar with the DRA scheme, the key is above the chart. Its pretty straightforward.

()

()


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 18, 2012, 04:05:05 PM
Its also probably worth saying that Rouzer only won Johnston 60-40 compared to Romney's 63-36.

If Rouzer match Romney, he would have win the district 50.8-49.2.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 19, 2012, 12:13:21 PM
Linda Coleman concedes. (http://www.indyweek.com/citizen/archives/2012/11/19/linda-coleman-concedes-republican-don-forest-is-lt-gov-elect)

She tightened the gap over the weekend, but her deficit still stood at about 6500 votes (.14%).

Well folks, 'ya can't win 'em all. I do respect her for conceding instead of dragging this out though.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 19, 2012, 12:51:44 PM
Yep, if Coleman matched Obama in Mecklenburg, she would have gotten 50.10% statewide.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 19, 2012, 03:43:20 PM
Yep, model for 2014.

Get someone who can outperform in either Mecklenburg or Wake County.

Or maybe even a little bit of both for good measure. ;)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 19, 2012, 04:03:40 PM
Yep, model for 2014.

Get someone who can outperform in either Mecklenburg or Wake County.

Or maybe even a little bit of both for good measure. ;)

As much as I love southern Charlotte, its stubborn Republican tendencies in downballot races annoys me.

Anywho, NC still hasn't allocated absentee/early votes by precinct, so until then, I'm more or less relegated to making statewide maps..


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 19, 2012, 04:17:53 PM
When it does, can I get a precinct map of Mecklenburg between Obama and Romney?


I was surprised that Romney didn't get back into the low 40's. I was anticipating there being a Palin effect wearing off similar to what happened in certain tracks in upscale precincts in places like Orange county, etc.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 19, 2012, 04:47:34 PM
Yeah, I'm sure I'll be turning out tons of maps.

The only county that seems to have already done it is New Hanover.

I looked at the NC-07 portion of it. McIntyre (left) won 51-49, even with the most Democratic precincts going to CD3. Romney carried the same precincts 59.1-39.5.

()


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 19, 2012, 08:46:56 PM
Yeah, I'm sure I'll be turning out tons of maps.

The only county that seems to have already done it is New Hanover.

I looked at the NC-07 portion of it. McIntyre (left) won 51-49, even with the most Democratic precincts going to CD3. Romney carried the same precincts 64.2-39.5.

()

Im thinking Republicans made a bit of a mistake making the 3rd more Democratic.  A district very similar to the current NC-03 elected Marty Lancaster as recently as 1992 and that district is still a lot more Dem downballot than at the Presidential level. 


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 19, 2012, 09:16:21 PM
'As recently as 1992' is an interesting one given that this is America we're talking about. 1992 was twenty years ago. Weird, I know, but there you are.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 19, 2012, 10:35:05 PM
Well, CD3 dropped from 61% McCain to 56% in redistricting and Perdue would have carried it with 54%. Still, even she had special regional advantages. If Jones retires, the best candidate I could think of for Democrats would be State Sen. Stan White; he represents the northern counties in the district (http://ncga.state.nc.us/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Senate/Rucho_Senate_2/Maps/DistSimple/distSimple_1.pdf) and was just reelected in a competitive race. Still, the Democratic bench there is considerably thinner than it once was.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 19, 2012, 10:37:49 PM
Well, CD3 dropped from 61% McCain to 56% in redistricting and Perdue would have carried it with 54%. Still, even she had special regional advantages. If Jones retires the best candidate I could think of for Democrats would be State Sen. Stan White; he represents the northern counties in the district and was just reelected in a competitive race. Still, the Democratic bench there is considerably thinner than it once was.

What if Jones himself switched?  I would think he'd be pretty safe here as a Dem. After all, he had been one for years. 


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 19, 2012, 10:39:48 PM
Well, CD3 dropped from 61% McCain to 56% in redistricting and Perdue would have carried it with 54%. Still, even she had special regional advantages. If Jones retires the best candidate I could think of for Democrats would be State Sen. Stan White; he represents the northern counties in the district and was just reelected in a competitive race. Still, the Democratic bench there is considerably thinner than it once was.

What if Jones himself switched?  I would think he'd be pretty safe here as a Dem. After all, he had been one for years. 

I think he would have to draw a pretty strong Republican primary challenger for that to happen. But yes, he has a massive personal vote and would probably still be safe.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 20, 2012, 09:47:12 AM
Rouzer has until noon to request a recount. (http://www.journalnow.com/news/state_region/article_4c934b1c-3310-11e2-990c-001a4bcf6878.html)

As the article points out, recounts in the past have not changed the results in NC; that was likely a factor in Coleman's concession yesterday.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 20, 2012, 11:47:56 AM
Rouzer is calling for a recount citing "irregularities" in Bladen County. (http://www.starnewsonline.com/article/20121120/ARTICLES/121129977/1177?Title=Rouzer-calls-for-recount-in-House-race-against-McIntyre)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 20, 2012, 12:01:35 PM
Speaking of recounts, NC only has one other than I'm aware of. In Senate district 1, which consists of 8 counties along the northern coast, incumbent Stan White (D) was leading Bill Cook (R) in the unofficial tallies, but after the counties were canvassed, Cook jumped ahead by 32 votes.

This was more or less an open-seat race; White was appointed at the beginning of the previous session. His predecessor, the Senate Pro Tempore Marc Basnight (D), who had represented the district since 1984, stepped down for medical reasons.

Here's what the current result looks like:

()

Romney won the district 55.5/43.1. However, on the state level, this is only a slighly R-leaning seat; for instance, in the near-50/50 Lt. Gov contest, Forest beat Coleman there by a narrower 52.4/47.6.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: krazen1211 on November 20, 2012, 02:04:39 PM
When it does, can I get a precinct map of Mecklenburg between Obama and Romney?


I was surprised that Romney didn't get back into the low 40's. I was anticipating there being a Palin effect wearing off similar to what happened in certain tracks in upscale precincts in places like Orange county, etc.

Hasn't the minority population of Charlotte swelled in the last 4 years?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 20, 2012, 04:03:34 PM
Just going by the whole county results and some estimates for the partial counties, I'm putting out a preliminary guess that CD7 was 58.5/40.3 Romney, up from 57.6/41.6 in 2008.

When it does, can I get a precinct map of Mecklenburg between Obama and Romney?


I was surprised that Romney didn't get back into the low 40's. I was anticipating there being a Palin effect wearing off similar to what happened in certain tracks in upscale precincts in places like Orange county, etc.

Hasn't the minority population of Charlotte swelled in the last 4 years?

Yes. As of 2000, the nonwhile population was about 39%. Now its up to 49%.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 20, 2012, 05:11:37 PM
Rowan, Union and Davidson seem to have early votes accounted for by precinct too. With that, I took a stab at calculating CD8. I got 57.2/41.5 Romney; pretty similar to the 57.4/41.7 in 2008.

The counties along the SC border swung to Obama while the ones in central NC swung to Romney, so a status quo result would make sense. Though, I was expecting more of a dropoff for Obama.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 21, 2012, 05:06:11 AM
More of the peripheral counties in CD7 have broken down early voting by precinct. I have every county in CD7 here except for Robeson, which still has a good chunk of early votes unallocated. When Robeson county is added, it will push the numbers slightly in Obama's favor, so the overall result will probably close to 58.5/40.5 Romney.

()


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 21, 2012, 05:49:19 AM
Every county in CD5 has early votes allocated; there are a few hundred absentee votes in Davidson County unassigned, but nothing that would change the outcome.

Romney won the district 59.0/39.5. McCain carried it 56.8/42.0.

()


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 21, 2012, 12:18:52 PM
This wasn't a Congressional race, but I guess I'll still post it here.

This was the swing from 2008 to 2012 in the Governor's race:

()

()

Obviously, its hard to spin this as anything other than bad news for Democrats; every county swung to McCrory.

-The epicenter of the swing was around Perdue's old coastal Senate district (Craven, Carteret and Pamilco counties). This was to be expected, as Dalton lacked Perdue's regional strength here. Still, despite being from western NC, Dalton carried Pamlico in his 2008 LG win.

-There was a an area up in the northwest that swung pretty hard against Dalton too. I didn't really follow the local aspects of the race, but anyone know why? One guess I have is that, unlike Easley (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKOT6OAvYnA) or Perdue (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yExbmB9ND4), Dalton never got to do an ad with Andy Griffith (who died over the summer). 


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 21, 2012, 07:11:23 PM
Its pretty likely Romney broke 60% in the new CD11. I calculated the old CD11 (it only had one minor county split). Obama lost it 52.1/46.5 in 2008; this year, he would have slid to 54.2/44.1.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: hopper on November 21, 2012, 07:52:11 PM
Looks like McIntyre will stick around for another cycle. The R's would love to knock him off.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 27, 2012, 01:01:34 AM
The recount in CD7 will conclude Wednesday. (http://www.wect.com/story/20185061/recounts-begin-for-3-very-close-eastern-nc-races)

The Pender, Cumberland and Brunswick county precincts have already finished counting. Overall, "3 or 4" votes changed, but nothing to swing the outcome.

There are also a few outstanding ballots in one Bladen county precinct, though its a relatively small county and McIntye carried it 2:1.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 27, 2012, 09:40:31 AM
Well, I'm not particularly happy about Shuler. (http://boldprogressives.org/retiring-blue-dog-democrat-heath-shuler-breaks-his-pledge-to-not-become-a-lobbyist/?source=fb)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Frodo on November 28, 2012, 09:54:56 PM
Rouzer has conceded (http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-congress/2012/11/rouzer-concedes-in-nc-150587.html?hp=r3). 


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on November 28, 2012, 10:15:36 PM
Rouzer has conceded (http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-congress/2012/11/rouzer-concedes-in-nc-150587.html?hp=r3). 

Thanks.

I was waiting to see if he asked for another hand recount (which he was still entitled to do) before I posted anything.

Great news!


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on December 03, 2012, 10:19:19 PM
In SD-01, Stan White conceded as his 21-vote deficit held. (http://projects.newsobserver.com/node/26482)

This brings the chamber up to 33/17 Republican. Of the 17 Democrats, only 7 are white.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: smoltchanov on December 03, 2012, 10:32:26 PM
In SD-01, Stan White conceded as his 21-vote deficit held. (http://projects.newsobserver.com/node/26482)

This brings the chamber up to 33/17 Republican. Of the 17 Democrats, only 7 are white.

So, basically, North Carolina goes "Deep South" way in this respect - Democratic legislative delegations in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiaana, Georgia  and so on are already "heavily Black"....


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on December 04, 2012, 11:25:52 PM
Walter Jones was one of the Republicans that Boehner punished (http://www.witn.com/home/headlines/GOP-Leaders-Remove-Walter-Jones-Others-From-Plum-House-Committees-182067611.html) for voting against Ryan's budget in the 112th Congress.

Jones was stripped of his seat on Financial Services; with the departures of Don Manzullo and Ron Paul, Jones would have been the 4th most senior Republican on the committee. Not surprisingly, the newly-elected Robert Pittenger was appointed to that committee. (http://www.wsoctv.com/news/news/local/pittenger-thrilled-be-appointed-house-financial-se/nTMCY/) He'll obviously be far more inclined to tow the party line.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: smoltchanov on December 05, 2012, 02:20:16 AM
Walter Jones was one of the Republicans that Boehner punished (http://www.witn.com/home/headlines/GOP-Leaders-Remove-Walter-Jones-Others-From-Plum-House-Committees-182067611.html) for voting against Ryan's budget in the 112th Congress.

Jones was stripped of his seat on Financial Services; with the departures of Don Manzullo and Ron Paul, Jones would have been the 4th most senior Republican on the committee. Not surprisingly, the newly-elected Robert Pittenger was appointed to that committee. (http://www.wsoctv.com/news/news/local/pittenger-thrilled-be-appointed-house-financial-se/nTMCY/) He'll obviously be far more inclined to tow the party line.


BOTH parties now like "loyalists" and hate "mavericks". Nothing really new, but recently that became a sort of mania for "party leaders". As i said many times - they dream about elections where 435 Nancy Pelosi-clones will run against 435 John Boehner-clones...)))) It will be so much "fun", that one would like to commit suicide because of boredom...)))


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on December 07, 2012, 02:17:54 AM
Hmm...Jones may go with the Democrats and sign the discharge petition. (http://thehill.com/homenews/house/271235-gop-rep-jones-says-he-could-buck-party-on-middle-class-tax-vote) Good for him.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on December 08, 2012, 02:12:30 AM
'Props to Kissell for being gracious in defeat. (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/11/24/3681285/larry-kissell-a-class-act.html)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Frodo on December 13, 2012, 07:06:55 PM
Feel free to move this, but after the setbacks of the past two years, the North Carolina Democratic Party is looking for a fresh start:

Embattled state Democratic Party chairman won't seek second term

BY ROB CHRISTENSEN - RCHRISTENSEN@NEWSOBSERVER.COM

RALEIGH -- David Parker, the embattled state Democratic Party chairman, said Wednesday he would not seek another term, apparently ending one of the more turbulent episodes in the party’s recent history.

Parker’s announcement was a relief to party and elected leaders, who were fearful that Parker – who has a loyal following among many party activists – would successfully seek another two-year term when the state Executive Committee meets in February.

Many party leaders had already been quietly lining up behind state Sen. Eric Mansfield of Fayetteville as their choice even before Parker’s announcement.

Mansfield, an African-American physician, Baptist minister and retired Army officer, said Wednesday that he was “very strongly considering” a bid for party chairman. He unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor earlier this year.

“I am getting a lot of phone calls from across the state,” Mansfield said in a telephone interview from the White House, where he was attending a Christmas Party. “I will probably make a decision in the next three or four days. I am talking to activists and grass-roots people, and elected officials trying to get a clear voice from across the state.”

The position of state Democratic Party chair is expected to take on added importance now that the Republicans control all three branches of state government in Raleigh.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/12/13/2541377/embattled-state-democratic-party.html#storylink=cpy






Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on December 13, 2012, 08:45:30 PM
Great news!


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Mr.Phips on December 13, 2012, 10:05:16 PM
The loss of the entire state legislature in 2010 should have been enough to throw Parker out.  It was as if Democrats didnt even try there. 


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on December 18, 2012, 12:30:29 AM
The loss of the entire state legislature in 2010 should have been enough to throw Parker out.  It was as if Democrats didnt even try there. 

The results this year didn't exactly help his case either.

Here was the State Senate:

()


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: smoltchanov on December 18, 2012, 03:32:03 AM
The loss of the entire state legislature in 2010 should have been enough to throw Parker out.  It was as if Democrats didnt even try there. 

The results this year didn't exactly help his case either.

Here was the State Senate:

()

So - mostly Black areas and liberal ones (like Research Triangle)????


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on December 18, 2012, 12:36:54 PM
The Democrats need 6 seats to break even. Using this year's result as a baseline, the seats that could be competitive within the next decade are:

()
(numbering goes east -> west)

-SD1 (the notheastern coast): The Republican won by 39 votes.
-SD9 (New Hanover County): Only slighty red, but Team D will need a high-caliber candidate.
-SD12 (centered in Harnett County): The Republican won with 51%.
-SD15 (northwestern Wake): The incumbent, Neal Hunt, is popular but may retire within the next few cycles. Trending D.
-SD17 (southern Wake): The Republican won the open seat with 54% but its also trending D.

The 6th pickup would be less obvious. Here are a few possibilities:
-SD47: If Walter Dalton wanted to make a legislative comeback, this would be the best place for it. Its actually a few points more Democratic than the district he held for 14 years. Dalton would keep his home of Rutherford but trade Cleveland for a few locally-Dem counties plus deeply Republican Mitchell. The incumbent, Ralph Hise, is only in his second term.

-SD50: In 2010, this was the closest race in the State; Sen, Martin Snow (D) lost by a few hundred votes. This year, he lost by 14 points in a rematch. I'm convinced Democrats can compete here with the right candidate. Hayden Rogers lives here. This is the type of district where the Democrat would probably be better off without having Obama at the top of the ticket.

-SD10: This district flipped in 2010 and was redrawn to include a sizable slice of Johnston County. The incumbent Republican is a freshmen, and Sampson and Duplin Counties usually support Democrats, but I'm not sure if they'd be enough to offset the 37% of the district that Johnston now makes up.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on December 21, 2012, 05:33:50 PM
This is gubernatorial, but I'll post it here anyway.

Oh, I just can't wait for the new McCrory Administration! The Governor-elect just appointed Art Pope (http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/12/20/2557101/mccrory-names-art-pope-to-be-his.html) to be one of his chief budget directors.

Pope, a multi-millionaire, was best known for bankrolling the Republicans' takeover of the Assembly in 2010. (http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/10/10/111010fa_fact_mayer) This would be like President Romney appointing David Koch to lead the OMB.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: JacobNC on December 22, 2012, 02:07:04 PM
The Democrats need 6 seats to break even. Using this year's result as a baseline, the seats that could be competitive within the next decade are:

()
(numbering goes east -> west)

-SD1 (the notheastern coast): The Republican won by 39 votes.
-SD9 (New Hanover County): Only slighty red, but Team D will need a high-caliber candidate.
-SD12 (centered in Harnett County): The Republican won with 51%.
-SD15 (northwestern Wake): The incumbent, Neal Hunt, is popular but may retire within the next few cycles. Trending D.
-SD17 (southern Wake): The Republican won the open seat with 54% but its also trending D.

The 6th pickup would be less obvious. Here are a few possibilities:
-SD47: If Walter Dalton wanted to make a legislative comeback, this would be the best place for it. Its actually a few points more Democratic than the district he held for 14 years. Dalton would keep his home of Rutherford but trade Cleveland for a few locally-Dem counties plus deeply Republican Mitchell. The incumbent, Ralph Hise, is only in his second term.

-SD50: In 2010, this was the closest race in the State; Sen, Martin Snow (D) lost by a few hundred votes. This year, he lost by 14 points in a rematch. I'm convinced Democrats can compete here with the right candidate. Hayden Rogers lives here. This is the type of district where the Democrat would probably be better off without having Obama at the top of the ticket.

-SD10: This district flipped in 2010 and was redrawn to include a sizable slice of Johnston County. The incumbent Republican is a freshmen, and Sampson and Duplin Counties usually support Democrats, but I'm not sure if they'd be enough to offset the 37% of the district that Johnston now makes up.

Add the Cumberland County district to the list (Wesley Meredith).  I think he got a bad challenger this year but he was once considered the most vulnerable Republican.

This is gubernatorial, but I'll post it here anyway.

Oh, I just can't wait for the new McCrory Administration! The Governor-elect just appointed Art Pope (http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/12/20/2557101/mccrory-names-art-pope-to-be-his.html) to be one of his chief budget directors.

Pope, a multi-millionaire, was best known for bankrolling the Republicans' takeover of the Assembly in 2010. (http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/10/10/111010fa_fact_mayer) This would be like President Romney appointing David Koch to lead the OMB.

So much for Governor Moderate.  With the Republicans having a veto-proof majority I expected whatever moderate-ness Pat McCrory has will be irrelevant, but with McCrory himself appointing Pope to write the state budget, it looks like North Carolina may have officially gone to Hell.

Walter Jones was one of the Republicans that Boehner punished (http://www.witn.com/home/headlines/GOP-Leaders-Remove-Walter-Jones-Others-From-Plum-House-Committees-182067611.html) for voting against Ryan's budget in the 112th Congress.

Jones was stripped of his seat on Financial Services; with the departures of Don Manzullo and Ron Paul, Jones would have been the 4th most senior Republican on the committee. Not surprisingly, the newly-elected Robert Pittenger was appointed to that committee. (http://www.wsoctv.com/news/news/local/pittenger-thrilled-be-appointed-house-financial-se/nTMCY/) He'll obviously be far more inclined to tow the party line.


Haha.  Of course the Republicans would appoint the guy from Charlotte to the financial services committee, who totally won't be in the pocket of big banks. :sarcasm:

Jones, though, is pretty pissed off at Republicans, but I wouldn't expect him to make a party switch as some have speculated.  He considers himself to be in the Tea Party/Ron Paul wing of the Republican party, although it's sometimes hard to tell since he votes with Dems so often.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on January 05, 2013, 05:15:00 PM
Ugh, the Pope McCrory Administration started today.  (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/01/05/3766175/pat-mccrory-sworn-in-as-north.html)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Gass3268 on January 05, 2013, 05:22:19 PM
The Democrats need 6 seats to break even. Using this year's result as a baseline, the seats that could be competitive within the next decade are:

()
(numbering goes east -> west)

-SD1 (the notheastern coast): The Republican won by 39 votes.
-SD9 (New Hanover County): Only slighty red, but Team D will need a high-caliber candidate.
-SD12 (centered in Harnett County): The Republican won with 51%.
-SD15 (northwestern Wake): The incumbent, Neal Hunt, is popular but may retire within the next few cycles. Trending D.
-SD17 (southern Wake): The Republican won the open seat with 54% but its also trending D.

The 6th pickup would be less obvious. Here are a few possibilities:
-SD47: If Walter Dalton wanted to make a legislative comeback, this would be the best place for it. Its actually a few points more Democratic than the district he held for 14 years. Dalton would keep his home of Rutherford but trade Cleveland for a few locally-Dem counties plus deeply Republican Mitchell. The incumbent, Ralph Hise, is only in his second term.

-SD50: In 2010, this was the closest race in the State; Sen, Martin Snow (D) lost by a few hundred votes. This year, he lost by 14 points in a rematch. I'm convinced Democrats can compete here with the right candidate. Hayden Rogers lives here. This is the type of district where the Democrat would probably be better off without having Obama at the top of the ticket.

-SD10: This district flipped in 2010 and was redrawn to include a sizable slice of Johnston County. The incumbent Republican is a freshmen, and Sampson and Duplin Counties usually support Democrats, but I'm not sure if they'd be enough to offset the 37% of the district that Johnston now makes up.

This guy is from the area, could he win?
()


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on January 05, 2013, 05:25:11 PM
The NC Democrats should take any good recruits they can get :)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: krazen1211 on January 06, 2013, 11:12:13 AM
The Democrats need 6 seats to break even. Using this year's result as a baseline, the seats that could be competitive within the next decade are:

()
(numbering goes east -> west)

-SD1 (the notheastern coast): The Republican won by 39 votes.
-SD9 (New Hanover County): Only slighty red, but Team D will need a high-caliber candidate.
-SD12 (centered in Harnett County): The Republican won with 51%.
-SD15 (northwestern Wake): The incumbent, Neal Hunt, is popular but may retire within the next few cycles. Trending D.
-SD17 (southern Wake): The Republican won the open seat with 54% but its also trending D.

The 6th pickup would be less obvious. Here are a few possibilities:
-SD47: If Walter Dalton wanted to make a legislative comeback, this would be the best place for it. Its actually a few points more Democratic than the district he held for 14 years. Dalton would keep his home of Rutherford but trade Cleveland for a few locally-Dem counties plus deeply Republican Mitchell. The incumbent, Ralph Hise, is only in his second term.

-SD50: In 2010, this was the closest race in the State; Sen, Martin Snow (D) lost by a few hundred votes. This year, he lost by 14 points in a rematch. I'm convinced Democrats can compete here with the right candidate. Hayden Rogers lives here. This is the type of district where the Democrat would probably be better off without having Obama at the top of the ticket.

-SD10: This district flipped in 2010 and was redrawn to include a sizable slice of Johnston County. The incumbent Republican is a freshmen, and Sampson and Duplin Counties usually support Democrats, but I'm not sure if they'd be enough to offset the 37% of the district that Johnston now makes up.


http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/IPD-NC-Senate-Scoreboard-Nov-7-WINNERS.pdf


What happened in SD-25?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on January 06, 2013, 11:57:58 AM

http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/IPD-NC-Senate-Scoreboard-Nov-7-WINNERS.pdf


What happened in SD-25?

It was represented by William Purcell, a conservative Democrat, since 1997. He retired this year and Gene McLaurin held it for the Democrats. The district only picked up a handful of precincts in Rowan County.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: old timey villain on January 06, 2013, 02:07:40 PM
Ugh, the Pope McCrory Administration started today.  (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/01/05/3766175/pat-mccrory-sworn-in-as-north.html)

so, can anyone with some good knowledge explain to me why Bev Perdue was so unpopular, even amongst many NC Democrats?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on January 06, 2013, 05:02:56 PM
Ugh, the Pope McCrory Administration started today.  (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/01/05/3766175/pat-mccrory-sworn-in-as-north.html)

so, can anyone with some good knowledge explain to me why Bev Perdue was so unpopular, even amongst many NC Democrats?

In a nutshell, she was a good legislator but a bad executive. She struggled to put together her first budget, with a Democratic super majority in the Assembly. She made a bad first impression and never quite recovered.

The state's unemployment rate was hovering at about 10.5% for most of her term as well (its currently down to 9.1%).

She also had some bad PR episodes, like this. (http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/11/28/1676707/3-perdue-associates-indicted.html)


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Mr.Phips on January 06, 2013, 06:03:52 PM
Ugh, the Pope McCrory Administration started today.  (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/01/05/3766175/pat-mccrory-sworn-in-as-north.html)

so, can anyone with some good knowledge explain to me why Bev Perdue was so unpopular, even amongst many NC Democrats?

In a nutshell, she was a good legislator but a bad executive. She struggled to put together her first budget, with a Democratic super majority in the Assembly. She made a bad first impression and never quite recovered.

The state's unemployment rate was hovering at about 10.5% for most of her term as well (its currently down to 9.1%).

She also had some bad PR episodes, like this. (http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/11/28/1676707/3-perdue-associates-indicted.html)


Why didnt she turn around and relentless blame the GOP legislature after 2010?  That may have allowed her to get back in the game. 


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on January 07, 2013, 02:06:11 AM
Ugh, the Pope McCrory Administration started today.  (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/01/05/3766175/pat-mccrory-sworn-in-as-north.html)

so, can anyone with some good knowledge explain to me why Bev Perdue was so unpopular, even amongst many NC Democrats?

In a nutshell, she was a good legislator but a bad executive. She struggled to put together her first budget, with a Democratic super majority in the Assembly. She made a bad first impression and never quite recovered.

The state's unemployment rate was hovering at about 10.5% for most of her term as well (its currently down to 9.1%).

She also had some bad PR episodes, like this. (http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/11/28/1676707/3-perdue-associates-indicted.html)


Why didnt she turn around and relentless blame the GOP legislature after 2010?  That may have allowed her to get back in the game. 

I think she could have done more of that. The Assembly's approval was (last time I checked) 16%.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on January 07, 2013, 02:10:29 AM

http://www.johndavisconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/IPD-NC-Senate-Scoreboard-Nov-7-WINNERS.pdf


What happened in SD-25?

It was represented by William Purcell, a conservative Democrat, since 1997. He retired this year and Gene McLaurin held it for the Democrats. The district only picked up a handful of precincts in Rowan County.

Here's a more comprehensive look at SD25:

()

Looks like McLaurin ran up the margins in the three Democratic counties to win.

Kissell lost that part of his district by 5 points. Kissell's total is probably artificially low because the idiot write-in Democrat took 10% in Richmond County, but Hudson still got a majority.



Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on January 09, 2013, 02:01:00 PM
This article (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/01/09/3773224/mecklenburg-will-have-new-muscle.html) points out that, as a result of the 2012 local elections, Mecklenburg County will have the most clout its ever had.

Charlotte has long been something of an ugly stepsister to Raleigh in state politics. However, now, pols from Charlotte are dominating the scene at the state capitol. The Governor, LG, Speaker of the House and one of the most important Senators (my Senator Bob Rucho) are all from Mecklenburg County.

The Hunt/Easley/Perdue eastern dynasty is pretty much over.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: krazen1211 on January 09, 2013, 02:35:50 PM
That comes at a time when Wake County is about to exceed Mecklenburg in population.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on January 09, 2013, 03:55:42 PM
Voter turnout in Wake is generally better as well. Despite having 20K less people at the last census, in the 2008 and 2012 elections, Wake cast about 35K more ballots than Mecklenburg each time.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: JacobNC on January 09, 2013, 11:06:42 PM
What may have helped Gene "McLaurin" to get huge margins in Richmond and Scotland counties is the fact that they are home to "Laurinburg."

He is the only NC legislator to represent a Romney district now, right?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on January 10, 2013, 12:19:00 AM
What may have helped Gene "McLaurin" to get huge margins in Richmond and Scotland counties is the fact that they are home to "Laurinburg."

He is the only NC legislator to represent a Romney district now, right?

Yep.

SD1 was pretty close, which makes it that much more stinging for Democrats.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Talleyrand on January 10, 2013, 12:35:59 AM
Who are the strongest members of the NC Democratic bench; people who we could run for the Senate in 2014 (if Hagan randomly retires) or 2016? I would think Cowell, Shuler, and Cooper, but am I missing anyone?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: morgieb on January 10, 2013, 12:51:48 AM
Who are the strongest members of the NC Democratic bench; people who we could run for the Senate in 2014 (if Hagan randomly retires) or 2016? I would think Cowell, Shuler, and Cooper, but am I missing anyone?
How electable would Miller be?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Mr.Phips on January 10, 2013, 05:19:58 PM
What may have helped Gene "McLaurin" to get huge margins in Richmond and Scotland counties is the fact that they are home to "Laurinburg."

He is the only NC legislator to represent a Romney district now, right?

Yep.

SD1 was pretty close, which makes it that much more stinging for Democrats.


Any Democrats left in Romney districts in the state House?  How about Republicans in Obama districts?


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on January 10, 2013, 08:07:02 PM
Who are the strongest members of the NC Democratic bench; people who we could run for the Senate in 2014 (if Hagan randomly retires) or 2016? I would think Cowell, Shuler, and Cooper, but am I missing anyone?
How electable would Miller be?

He skews noticeably left of the state, but not to the point of being unelectable; he'd be like the Sherrod Brown of NC.

Miller also would get lots of $$$ help from Netroots/DailyKos.


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on January 22, 2013, 03:16:30 PM
Hmmm...the three newest members of the delegation are also the richest. (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/01/18/3794638/new-nc-congressmen-stand-out-for.html)

My Congressman, Pittenger, is the 19th wealthiest in the House. I'm sure he's a real out of touch patrician man of the people!


Title: Re: North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races
Post by: Miles on February 05, 2013, 03:42:22 AM
This has more to do with Assembly politics, but I thought it would be appropriate to post this. I must have missed this story, as its a few weeks old, but retired State Senator Jean Preston passed away last month. (http://www.newbernsj.com/news/local/retired-state-sen-jean-preston-dead-at-77-1.76984) Senator Preston was 77.

Senator Preston announced that she would retire for the 2012 cycle; her death came less than 2 weeks after she vacated office. She was elected to represent Carteret County in the House in 1992 and was promoted to the State Senate in 2006.

Though she became one of the top Republicans, she was still able to work across the aisle. Senator Preston was most known for her advocacy on education funding and women's issues, which at times made her something of a maverick within the Republican caucus.

'Wishing Senator Preston's family well.