Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: MaxQue on February 05, 2012, 01:53:35 PM



Title: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on February 05, 2012, 01:53:35 PM
(if there is already a thread on that, please merge)

By-election in Toronto-Danforth called for March 12.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 05, 2012, 02:09:43 PM
Here's the link. The only other by-election possibility right now (barring a death or resignation) is that Topp wins the NDP leadership and one of the Quebec frosh step down to make way for him.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/by-election-in-laytons-riding-scheduled-for-march-12/article2327105/


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 05, 2012, 03:06:42 PM
Woohoo! Finally...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 05, 2012, 03:12:02 PM
haha, the article says Layton first won the riding in 1997. Fail.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on February 06, 2012, 08:26:09 AM
HA! thats sad, i like the Globe... but do they have 12yr old working there? thats pretty pathetic. a simple wiki search will show he was elected in 04... he ran and lost in 97 to Mills... yesh

This will be interesting race... comparissons can Maybe go back as far as 76 but 87 would be more accurate since the ridings been re-drawn so much.
There is no Liberal candidate yet so thats going to hurt them since Scott has been out and about since being nominated and had National attention (as much as the media gave the NDP caucus retreat any). The Tories have made this the "liberals to lose" which i still find odd that they consider their main target the Liberals here... they are bent on destryoing them, but that might just give them some fire.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on February 06, 2012, 10:58:02 AM
Deflating, or preemptively halting, any Liberal momentum would benefit the Tories in Ontario more than an NDP defeat would, I believe, as blue Liberals seem to have been coming home in the past few months, and the NDP is still seen as a nonfactor in Ontario at the moment. Still, I'm sure an NDP defeat there would be good for the Tories too.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 06, 2012, 11:19:57 AM
Making some demographic maps of the riding right now... :D


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on February 06, 2012, 11:51:54 AM
Making some demographic maps of the riding right now... :D

Beautiful! The North end, East York pools near the Don Valley and Polls in central Riverdale around around Bloor were liberal polls for sure.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=98141.msg2063794#msg2063794

I'm thinking the result will look more lik 08 than 11. I can see that Holmes, when the Liberals lose the tories will have tried to paint it as a failure, an NDP is still not a sure thing i'm sure we all remember Winnipeg North. But here, so far, there is no "star" liberal candidate, no liberal candidate at all actually.
I don't know, the last few polls i've been seeing haven't shown much movement in the ontario numbers, so this is going to be a Lib/NDP battle, its the NDPs to lose really and if you listen to Scott hes pushing this as not a sure thing victory.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 06, 2012, 12:55:39 PM
There's a definite difference between the East York part of the riding and the Toronto part. The former is heavily Orthodox, Greek, etc, while the latter is heavily Chinese, and non religious.

Also, those Liberal bits from 2008 in the central-west part of the riding makes sense, because that's the wealthiest part of the riding.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on February 06, 2012, 01:22:20 PM
I find the riding odd in that respect, there is a real difference between the two divides; North of Bloor/South of bloor. If fact the south side is more relatable with the more eastern Beaches area, and in the propsed 04 redistribution had them combined into a new riding (Riverdale-Beaches or something like that).
The greek, orthodox dominated north was the most Liberal friendly area, the benefit to the NDP this time is in having Cllr Mary Fragedakis to bolster support in the north, a council seat that was dominated previously by ring-winger Case Ootes.

South Riverdale/Leslieville is more middle class but heavily gentrifying so becoming more liberal friendly since housing prices here are some of the fastest growing. But its also a huge bastian for artist, leftist and champagne socialist... think the successful fight againt the Walmart.



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 06, 2012, 03:07:29 PM
Here are the demographic maps! http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2012/02/toronto-danforth-demographic-maps.html

Apparently there was an error in the PMOs office, and the date of the by-election will actually be March 19.

Liberals decide on their candidate on Feb 9.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on February 06, 2012, 03:26:13 PM
Here are the demographic maps! http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2012/02/toronto-danforth-demographic-maps.html

Apparently there was an error in the PMOs office, and the date of the by-election will actually be March 19.

Liberals decide on their candidate on Feb 9.

Fantastic maps!
it will be interesting to see if those heavy greek, orthodox polls and the wealthier polls can once again be won by the liberals... a strong tory vote will hurt them for sure, but at this point they are fighting the greens for third. The Greens have nominated 11 candidate Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu

I just recently moved out of the riding, and for about 5 years i lived in the Queen-Broadview village... i never called it that, always stuck to South Riverdale.
Anywho, one thing to also note about Toronto-Danforth is that they have a very large quiet gay population... I think it was noted as having the second highest % after the obvious Toronto Centre. Location and housing market are primary reasons for this. This isn't something that i think the gov't has stats on... it just based on living there.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 06, 2012, 03:42:16 PM
Too bad we can't have sexual orientation of the census, it would be really interesting... but people wouldn't want to answer the question.

As for calling it Queen-Broadview Village, that's just a name the I pulled out of my at atlas. It probably only refers to the shopping district in the area.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on February 06, 2012, 07:35:01 PM
Also, those Liberal bits from 2008 in the central-west part of the riding makes sense, because that's the wealthiest part of the riding.

Sorta...but not entirely; it's like the Annex in that it was "champagne socialist" until the Green Shift Grits tilted the plate in their direction in '08...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on February 06, 2012, 09:42:19 PM
I am completely unsurprised that your post providing demographic maps and an explanation thereof is at your usual high standard. Excellent work!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on February 06, 2012, 10:27:42 PM
Nice maps, Earl.

Too bad we can't have sexual orientation of the census, it would be really interesting... but people wouldn't want to answer the question.

The Toronto Star used to have a series called Map of the Week and one time it was about same-sex marriage in the city, since addresses are obtainable from the marriage registry. Of course many people (gay or not) are unmarried, but the patterns are likely enough to be similar. Here's  gay men (http://www3.thestar.com/static/googlemaps/starmaps_090610.html?xml=090620_M.xml) and here's lesbians (http://www3.thestar.com/static/googlemaps/starmaps_090610.html?xml=090620_M.xml).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 06, 2012, 10:42:20 PM
Interesting. The south part of the riding seems more eclectic and is therefore more gay friendly. But, if that map proves one thing, it's that gays like to live close to each other. They are quite similar to an ethnic group like that. It makes sense, it's harder to be gay and to live in areas with few gays, which would mean the area could be less understanding of them. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on February 07, 2012, 08:28:22 AM
Interesting. The south part of the riding seems more eclectic and is therefore more gay friendly. But, if that map proves one thing, it's that gays like to live close to each other. They are quite similar to an ethnic group like that. It makes sense, it's harder to be gay and to live in areas with few gays, which would mean the area could be less understanding of them.  

Exactly... i choose to live in Riverdale because it is less the "scene" much like Cabbagetown and the Annex, but is still very diverse, great streetscapes and close to the core; as well as has a small town charm but big city feel... ok i miss the hood.

adma - exaclty, I full expect those polls to go in favour of the Liberals this time around... but i think the NDP has a very good champagne socialist candidate in that he might just might be able to keep many of those polls for the NDP.

Liberals lagging?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-lagging-in-by-election-race-in-laytons-riding/article2328225/?from=sec368


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 07, 2012, 09:59:51 AM
Looks like the Liberal candidates aren't really that scary. Grant Gordon's ad: http://www.grantgordonliberal.com/eblasts/grant-liberal-nomination.html while humourous, admits in one part (or lies to us?) that the Liberals have no hope in the riding.

Ah well. And that article says the other Liberal guy is a former Green. Hmm.

Based on recent results in the riding, the NDP would be in real trouble if they dipped below 45%. Not in trouble of losing, but it would be a very bad result. I expect the party to get around 50%.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 07, 2012, 11:16:40 AM
Scratch that. If the NDP truly is only at 17% in the province (last Nanos poll), they are looking at about 44% in T-D, I'd say.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on February 07, 2012, 11:26:45 AM
But... nanos seems to be the outlier for Ontario:

Abacus (jan 16-19) - 25%
Angus-Reid (jan 20-21) - 24%
Harris-decima (jan 12-22) - 26%
all around the same timeframa as the Nanos poll, so the numbers were seeing are not much lower then the 29% from May11


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on February 07, 2012, 11:26:54 AM
I'd say mid to high 40's is a safe bet.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on February 07, 2012, 11:37:01 AM
a great write up on Pundit's guide
http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/02/goodbye-election-called-in-laytons-old-riding/

and if your looking for the poll-by-poll numbers here is the wonderful 506
http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/35094.html

I'm saying a repeat of 08 maybe 06, the NDP about 44-48%


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 07, 2012, 12:19:50 PM
If the NDP is polling in the mid 20s province wide, then maybe the NDP will be able to break 50% in the riding.

Let's throw out 2011, because Jack's numbers were inflated for personal reasons. However, Peter Tabuns got 54% back in October. This is in a year where the NDP didn't do well in Toronto compared to the Liberals... but Tabuns increased his vote considerably, compared to other NDPers in the city. Incumbent advantage I guess?

The last time this seat was open (provincially or federally) was in 2006. Tabuns got 48%. The provincial party was polling around 20% at the time. Now, the NDP has historically done better provincially than federally in Toronto, so that's something to look at as well.

I'd say we're looking at a minimum of 44% (NDP tanks in the polls), and a maximum of 54%, which was Tabuns' percentage in October. You can average that out to 49%.

Ok, so howabout the Liberals. They will be boosted by the fact that the race is a by-election. They got 39% here in the 2006 by-election. They were polling between 34 and 41% at the time, province wide (provincially). I think that 39% is their maximum in this riding, especially since they are going to be running a weak candidate. The Tory vote will collapse into the Liberals however, and I don't think they'll get lower than their 2008 showing at 29%. This gives us an average of 34% for the Liberals.

The Tories wont be putting much effort into the race. They generally have a base of 9% in the riding, but in the Layton vs Mills match, it got down to 6%. I don't see that happening, and I'll say their minimum is 9%. If the Tories put on a good campaign, they can match the 14% they got in the federal election. That's puts their average at around 11% or 12%.

And the Greens? If the race is seen as close, their vote will be marginalized. They got 2% in the 2006 by-election, and 4% in the last provincial election. Their candidate got 6% in the federal election in May, and she is running again. I'd say the base for the Greens is 2%, and if everyone votes for her again, she'll max out at 6%. That gives us an average of 4%.

Others: Maximum they'll get is 2%, so I'll give them 1%. Does that add up? If you give the Tories 12%, it does! woohoo!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 09, 2012, 03:06:43 PM
Liberal nomination meeting is tonight.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on February 10, 2012, 08:38:11 AM
and the Liberal candidate is.... Grant Gordon

anyone know what the turnout was at the nomination meeting?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on February 10, 2012, 11:14:56 AM
So, they failed to find a star candidate?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on February 10, 2012, 12:14:02 PM
to me a "star" candidate is someone with:
- broadbased name recognition;
- previous elected experience;
- has a built in semi or quasi cult appeal :P

so no, the liberals have not nominated a star candidate...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 10, 2012, 03:26:32 PM
and the Liberal candidate is.... Grant Gordon

anyone know what the turnout was at the nomination meeting?

Yeah, it was lower than the NDP turnout, but only 100 or so lower.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on February 10, 2012, 05:57:24 PM
But... nanos seems to be the outlier for Ontario:

Abacus (jan 16-19) - 25%
Angus-Reid (jan 20-21) - 24%
Harris-decima (jan 12-22) - 26%
all around the same timeframa as the Nanos poll, so the numbers were seeing are not much lower then the 29% from May11

Actually the NDP got 26% in Ontario on May 2/11


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on February 13, 2012, 08:33:53 AM
Thanks DL... so i have no idea where i got 29% just being hopeful i suppose :)

So the NDP isn't polling any change since May, and with that it looks good...
Chow is also pullin out all the stops in order to help Craig:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1129989--ndp-mp-olivia-chow-fights-for-her-husband-s-ndp-successor-in-danforth-riding

I think the party is very VERY commited to have a Winnipeg North repeat; without a "star" candidate for the Liberals i don't see that happening, but i've had two calls to help out Craig.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 13, 2012, 07:03:24 PM
Why am I not surprised?

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/02/13/former-tordan-liberal-candidate-says-he-stepped-aside-for-no-show-star/


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 13, 2012, 07:06:27 PM
lol...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 13, 2012, 07:20:24 PM
Media kept throwing Miller (a Dipper) and Kennedy around, dunno who else it might have been. Maybe one of Dad's crew?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on February 15, 2012, 12:39:49 PM
Craig Scott - 61%
Grant Gordon - 19%
Andrew Keyes - 14%
Green - 4%
Other - 2%

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1131505--poll-ndp-will-win-toronto-danforth-byelection-by-wide-margin?bn=1


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on February 15, 2012, 12:53:14 PM
Craig Scott - 61%
Grant Gordon - 19%
Andrew Keyes - 14%
Green - 4%
Other - 2%

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1131505--poll-ndp-will-win-toronto-danforth-byelection-by-wide-margin?bn=1

If that holds... and i hope it does (i'm always cautious not to get over confident with polls) thats just slightly more than Jack got!
Jack Layton - 60.8
Andrew Lang - 17.62
Katarina Von Koenig - 14.32
Adriana MH - 6.46

NDP up; Tories no change; Liberals down... DOWN! more then 2011, #fail. if the Liberals do this bad when Rae is the darling of the media, they are dooned in TO as far as i can see... whate they have left will be gobbled up between the NDP and Tories


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 15, 2012, 12:55:20 PM
Looks good, but the usual rules about constituency polling, polling in by-elections...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 15, 2012, 01:00:40 PM
The Liberals never had a chance of winning this riding, but are otherwise polling just fine in Ontario. Though I do wonder who their mystery candidate, if they actually exist, was.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on February 15, 2012, 03:24:09 PM
If there ever was a Liberal "star candidate" waiting in the wings, I suspect that they did a poll of their own, saw that they would get slaughtered and and decided not to be a sacrificial lamb to Bob rae's latest vanity project.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 15, 2012, 03:53:00 PM
The people mentioned were Miller (a Dipper last I checked) and Kennedy. Neither of whom are particularly inclined to kamikaze missions.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hash on February 15, 2012, 06:12:14 PM
I'm certainly getting very excited over constituency polling for a by-election. ::)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 15, 2012, 06:41:02 PM
Good news, but I would be surprised if we broke 60%.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on February 16, 2012, 09:35:30 AM
Agreed, i think it might be a tad too optimistic, fantastic if thats the outcome esp going into the leadership race. but i think were more in for a 48-52% range.

https://twitter.com/#!/GrantGordonLib/status/169984731067318272

Grant and the Grits trying to be funny eh; sounds a lil'desperate to me and so much for "were listening, were changing..." :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on February 16, 2012, 10:51:33 AM
()

Who's the Liberal candidate again?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 16, 2012, 11:35:07 AM
It used to be Rae's riding eons ago, so not totally off the wall. How popular is Rae in TO proper these days?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on February 16, 2012, 12:16:17 PM
78-81... three years, a blip really in politics before he bolted to ONDP leader. But yes over 30yrs ago he was the MP


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on February 16, 2012, 03:36:50 PM
Being an old MP form the 80's isn't being an asset, I suppose.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on February 16, 2012, 03:40:27 PM
Apart from Danforth, the only other possibility barring death or resignation is if Topp somehow wins the leadership and a poteau resigns to make way.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on February 16, 2012, 03:47:55 PM
Four candidates filled their papers now. NDP, Green and two indies.

Leslie Bory, from Boston, in Norfolk County (west of Niagara), who ran in the 2010 by-election in Vaughan (whch Fantino won) getting .28% and in Brant in 2011 (.3%). He is running agaist free trade, for tarrifs, for a Republic, against participating in "US wars", to reduce pesticides, herbicides and to ban factory farming.

Bahman Yazdanfar: Well, let's see his website: http://www.votersecho.com/ (http://www.votersecho.com/)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 18, 2012, 06:57:34 PM
Bump

TorDan by-election is tomorrow.

Profile: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/03/toronto-danforth-by-election-guide.html
(shameless plug).



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 18, 2012, 07:00:31 PM
Why our Grit friends kept talking up their chances is beyond me- first the star candidate rumour, then Rae's face being more prominent than the candidate's, finally a Trudeau visit on Gordon's behalf.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 18, 2012, 08:01:49 PM
My predictions are going to be off a bit, I must admit I've been ignoring this race for the last few weeks. But yeah, one thing I know is that the NDP will win it.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on March 18, 2012, 09:30:22 PM
Earl, I love your work. Those poll-by-poll maps are fantastic!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 18, 2012, 10:17:39 PM
Earl, I love your work. Those poll-by-poll maps are fantastic!

Thanks. I wish I had more time these past few weeks, I had plans to make many more maps. Oh well.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on March 19, 2012, 07:46:26 AM
Once the vote is in you will have more comparative results between scott and layton.

I don't know, i've been getting calls all week to volunteer; hearing that there are thousands on the wknds to go out and canvas.
Last week i rode the 501 queen car the entire length of the riding. So i peered down the side streets and here is my not-so-scientific assesment:
Between Broadview and Jones, almost no Liberal signs, two greens and on average about 5-6 NDP signs up (on lawns).
From Jones to Coxwell (i believe thats the east border) here you see more Liberal signs, i'd say 1 liberal for every 4 NDP, also a smattering of Green signs. I saw no Tory signs. This is the south end so Riverdale and Leslieville areas.

I think an NDP win too... but it all depends on who can bring out the vote, i'd say 45%-55% for Scott... the liberals will probably be over 20% if not, they have something to worry about.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on March 19, 2012, 08:42:23 AM
I'm so excited, it's been almost half a year, but finally another Canadian election. And with the leadership convention this weekend, the end of March seems to be great for Canadian politics. :) Here's my prediction:

Scott - 58%
Gordon - 22%
Keyes - 14%
Mugnatto-Hamu - 4%



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 19, 2012, 09:54:42 AM
Once the vote is in you will have more comparative results between scott and layton.

I don't know, i've been getting calls all week to volunteer; hearing that there are thousands on the wknds to go out and canvas.
Last week i rode the 501 queen car the entire length of the riding. So i peered down the side streets and here is my not-so-scientific assesment:
Between Broadview and Jones, almost no Liberal signs, two greens and on average about 5-6 NDP signs up (on lawns).
From Jones to Coxwell (i believe thats the east border) here you see more Liberal signs, i'd say 1 liberal for every 4 NDP, also a smattering of Green signs. I saw no Tory signs. This is the south end so Riverdale and Leslieville areas.

I think an NDP win too... but it all depends on who can bring out the vote, i'd say 45%-55% for Scott... the liberals will probably be over 20% if not, they have something to worry about.

If that was what the signs were like in Ottawa Centre, then that would indicate an overwhelming Liberal landslide.

I was doing a GOTV in one of our better polls in the provincial election. I think we had 30 signs to 1 or 2 Liberal signs. We ended up winning the poll by 2 votes I think. The whole riding, or at least my end of the riding was overwhelmingly NDP in terms of the sign war. In fact, some people STILL have their signs up... and the Liberals won the riding pretty convincingly. Either it's electoral fraud, or Liberals just are embarrassed to be Liberals.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on March 19, 2012, 08:01:43 PM
First poll's in:

NDP 49
Lib 26
Con 2
Grn 2

Total 79


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on March 19, 2012, 08:13:59 PM
One can see why Tories weren't quick to call the election. Being tied with Greens isn't good.

So, 17/196

Craig Scott (NDP): 1162 votes (58.7%)
Grant Gordon (LPC): 573 votes (29.0%)
Andrew Keyes (CPC): 102 votes (5.2%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (GPC): 94 votes (4.8%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Meeker on March 19, 2012, 08:26:01 PM
Yikes. Awful numbers for the Conservatives. Could be a byproduct of strategic voting though.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on March 19, 2012, 08:29:57 PM
So, 55/196

Craig Scott (NDP): 4095 votes (58.5%)
Grant Gordon (LPC): 2067 votes (29.5%)
Andrew Keyes (CPC): 394 votes (5.3%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (GPC): 317 votes (4.5%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on March 19, 2012, 08:37:48 PM
So, 82/196

Craig Scott (NDP): 6313 votes (57.9%)
Grant Gordon (LPC): 3256 votes (29.9%)
Andrew Keyes (CPC): 568 votes (5.2%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (GPC): 531 votes (4.9%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on March 19, 2012, 08:53:15 PM
So, 115/196

Craig Scott (NDP): 9178 votes (59.2%)
Grant Gordon (LPC): 4480 votes (28.9%)
Andrew Keyes (CPC): 803 votes (5.2%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (GPC): 744 votes (4.8%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on March 19, 2012, 09:34:15 PM
So, 162/196

Craig Scott (NDP): 15470 votes (59.8%)
Grant Gordon (LPC): 7379 votes (28.5%)
Andrew Keyes (CPC): 1328 votes (5.1%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (GPC): 1217 votes (4.7%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 19, 2012, 10:03:20 PM
175 polls in

Scott down to 59.6%

Excellent result. Not quite as good as Jack, but not far off. Who would expect a better result?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 19, 2012, 10:12:01 PM
180 polls in and Scott is down to 59.5. Gordon at 28.6%

Both are doing better than I had expected. However, if I actually payed attention to this race, I would've known the Tories wouldn't fare well. Obviously they stayed home or voted Liberal.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 19, 2012, 10:44:55 PM
All the polls reporting now

Craig Scott (NDP): 59.4% (-1.4%)
Grant Gordon (Lib) 28.5% (+10.9%)
Andrew Keyes (Cons) 5.4% (-8.9%)
Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (Grn) 4.7% (-1.7%)
Others: 1.9% (+1.1%)

Turnout: 43.4% (not bad for a by-election, especially one that was a foregone conclusion)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on March 19, 2012, 11:05:54 PM
Trying to work out if Tory voters stayed home or strategically voted Liberal... How does turnout/vote totals compare to the General? Will be very interesting to see the poll maps.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 19, 2012, 11:09:46 PM
In terms of raw numbers, the Liberals actually got more votes than last time, so obviously some Conservatives switched their votes, and a few New Democrats (well, most likely Liberals who had voted for Layton just that one time). The Tories went down by 7000 votes, and the Liberals increased by almost 1000. 16000 less people voted.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 20, 2012, 06:54:25 AM
Solid result for the NDP.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on March 20, 2012, 07:42:06 AM
Trying to work out if Tory voters stayed home or strategically voted Liberal... How does turnout/vote totals compare to the General? Will be very interesting to see the poll maps.

Its pretty easy to see that the Liberals benefited the most from the tories, who oddly enough ran a campaign compared to 11 when they were no where (meaning they were actually dropping literature and doing a pretty sparse but active door campaign) This is an urban riding; the robocall, the huge crime bill all played against the tories.
I was actuall quite surprised to see that the % was rather on par with jack, i had thought there was more of a personal vote for jack (but much of that vote might have stayed home too) 43% turnout is pretty fantastic seeing its a by-election and hearing there was some heavy voter fatigue with all the heavy NDP & Lib campaigns.

Two vicotires here: NDP - held most of jacks vote and won; Liberals - gained about 10pts so they will see this as a signifigant rebound.

I suspect the map to be closer to the 2008 picture; probably some of the wealthier north riverdale and North end around the Don river to have gone back to the liberals.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on March 20, 2012, 07:50:32 AM
Once the vote is in you will have more comparative results between scott and layton.

I don't know, i've been getting calls all week to volunteer; hearing that there are thousands on the wknds to go out and canvas.
Last week i rode the 501 queen car the entire length of the riding. So i peered down the side streets and here is my not-so-scientific assesment:
Between Broadview and Jones, almost no Liberal signs, two greens and on average about 5-6 NDP signs up (on lawns).
From Jones to Coxwell (i believe thats the east border) here you see more Liberal signs, i'd say 1 liberal for every 4 NDP, also a smattering of Green signs. I saw no Tory signs. This is the south end so Riverdale and Leslieville areas.

I think an NDP win too... but it all depends on who can bring out the vote, i'd say 45%-55% for Scott... the liberals will probably be over 20% if not, they have something to worry about.

If that was what the signs were like in Ottawa Centre, then that would indicate an overwhelming Liberal landslide.

I was doing a GOTV in one of our better polls in the provincial election. I think we had 30 signs to 1 or 2 Liberal signs. We ended up winning the poll by 2 votes I think. The whole riding, or at least my end of the riding was overwhelmingly NDP in terms of the sign war. In fact, some people STILL have their signs up... and the Liberals won the riding pretty convincingly. Either it's electoral fraud, or Liberals just are embarrassed to be Liberals.

I remember your stories during the election, Now i do remember hearing that the Liberal was a solid constituency guy (Yasir Naqvi), so that just strickes we as odd why put up an NDP sign just to vote Liberals... sounds like a closet case to me. But the Liberals with Dalton being from ottawa have that home town advantage eh... and correct me if i'm wrong, was the NDP candidate a strong one? or a well know one to be able to go tete-a-tete with Yasir?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 20, 2012, 08:27:00 AM
Once the vote is in you will have more comparative results between scott and layton.

I don't know, i've been getting calls all week to volunteer; hearing that there are thousands on the wknds to go out and canvas.
Last week i rode the 501 queen car the entire length of the riding. So i peered down the side streets and here is my not-so-scientific assesment:
Between Broadview and Jones, almost no Liberal signs, two greens and on average about 5-6 NDP signs up (on lawns).
From Jones to Coxwell (i believe thats the east border) here you see more Liberal signs, i'd say 1 liberal for every 4 NDP, also a smattering of Green signs. I saw no Tory signs. This is the south end so Riverdale and Leslieville areas.

I think an NDP win too... but it all depends on who can bring out the vote, i'd say 45%-55% for Scott... the liberals will probably be over 20% if not, they have something to worry about.

If that was what the signs were like in Ottawa Centre, then that would indicate an overwhelming Liberal landslide.

I was doing a GOTV in one of our better polls in the provincial election. I think we had 30 signs to 1 or 2 Liberal signs. We ended up winning the poll by 2 votes I think. The whole riding, or at least my end of the riding was overwhelmingly NDP in terms of the sign war. In fact, some people STILL have their signs up... and the Liberals won the riding pretty convincingly. Either it's electoral fraud, or Liberals just are embarrassed to be Liberals.

I remember your stories during the election, Now i do remember hearing that the Liberal was a solid constituency guy (Yasir Naqvi), so that just strickes we as odd why put up an NDP sign just to vote Liberals... sounds like a closet case to me. But the Liberals with Dalton being from ottawa have that home town advantage eh... and correct me if i'm wrong, was the NDP candidate a strong one? or a well know one to be able to go tete-a-tete with Yasir?

He wasn't that well known, so he wasn't strong in that aspect. But he would have been a great MP. He had a funny name (Anil Naidoo), but then again so did the incumbent. Perhaps Dalton had home town advantage. I dont know. There was a lot of head scratching after the election for me.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on March 20, 2012, 08:46:10 AM
if Ottawa was anything like TO, the Liberals ran a very very heavy strategic voting line... scare monerging those in urban seats that the liberals had to win otherwise the tories would be the government. there was noise that in York South Weston the grits ran a not-so-qiet anti-gay campaign against the NDPs Ferrera (sp). So i think there was so last minute swing of those who voted NDP in may to the liberals fearing the tories and going with the better the devil you know.
I told y'all about the Sarah Thomson story her fear mongering me... i almost scratched her eyes out :P jk


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on March 20, 2012, 08:57:45 AM
I kind of wish this by-election were somewhere other than downtown Toronto, only to see how the Tories would have fared. I don't think much can be extrapolated from their showing in a riding such as Toronto-Danforth. Buuut, going from 14% to 5% is pretty pathetic. Their ridings in the city would probably be gone if there were an election now.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 20, 2012, 09:06:41 AM
if Ottawa was anything like TO, the Liberals ran a very very heavy strategic voting line... scare monerging those in urban seats that the liberals had to win otherwise the tories would be the government. there was noise that in York South Weston the grits ran a not-so-qiet anti-gay campaign against the NDPs Ferrera (sp). So i think there was so last minute swing of those who voted NDP in may to the liberals fearing the tories and going with the better the devil you know.
I told y'all about the Sarah Thomson story her fear mongering me... i almost scratched her eyes out :P jk

There was a strategic voting scare. It made me very angry at the Liberals for being intellectually dishonest with people like that. I couldn't go through a day in that campaign without overhearing someone on the phone's trying to explain to a voter that voting for us would not help the Liberals. Are people really that gullible?



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on March 23, 2012, 09:20:00 PM
Third parties have a tendency to collapse to almost nothing in by-elections closely contested by two parties. It happened to the NDP in Vaughan and to the Conservatives when Lamoureux picked up Winnipeg North - way lower in both cases than the general either before or after. By-elections are more dependent on actually having a local operation.

Meanwhile, two provincial by-elections have been called for April 19 in BC - Chilliwack and Port Moody-Coquitlam. Both are Liberal seats, but given recent polling the NDP should mount a strong challenge in Port Moody-Coquitlam, and if the BC Conservative surge is real then maybe even Chilliwack could be threatened.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 27, 2012, 05:56:53 PM
Oh boy. Elizabeth Witmer, PC MPP for Kitchener-Waterloo, is resigning. Libs only need one more seat for that delicious majority.

While the seat is vacant, McGuinty technically doesn't need support from the other parties to pass legislation, right? Think he's going to keep the NDP concessions?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on April 27, 2012, 06:24:31 PM
I'll go ahead and say that there's zero chance that the Liberals gain that seat. Right now, the Liberals still don't have a majority; they have exactly half the seats, which isn't enough.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on April 27, 2012, 07:15:44 PM
Besides, wouldn't it look.. not good for the Liberals to come to some (seemingly cordial) agreement out in the open and then immediately backtrack on most of the concessions just because of a vacancy? The last thing they need right now, one would assume, would be bad press. Especially with a by-election in a seat they would hope to win.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 27, 2012, 08:16:46 PM
We're talking about Dalton McGuinty, right?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on April 27, 2012, 08:53:03 PM
It'd be interesting, and not all that implausible (depending on who's nominated), if the NDP wins that seat...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 27, 2012, 09:14:30 PM
Keep dreaming.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 28, 2012, 12:01:25 AM
This is going be the most important by-election in provincial history. Or at least recent history. It's certainly winnable by the Liberals, although perhaps not in this climate.  I'll definitely be rooting for the Tories in this one, unless the NDP does have a shot.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 28, 2012, 12:12:08 AM
By the way, the federal NDP held the riding between 1968 and 1979.  It is normally a Liberal riding though. The federal Liberals did really well in 2011 and they put up good numbers against Witmer in the Fall. A strong NDP campaign might create a large enough vote split though the keep the Liberals from winning.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 28, 2012, 12:37:31 AM
I'm hoping for a PC hold as well.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 28, 2012, 12:44:44 AM
I should've posted this earlier, but here is the poll by poll map for the entire province: http://www.globalnews.ca/pages/topicNew.aspx?id=6442556629


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Bacon King on April 28, 2012, 04:10:51 AM
Maybe I'm missing something here, but wouldn't a Liberal victory in the by-election be completely irrelevant?

The Speaker is a Liberal, and he's bound by the same rules as the Speaker of the House of Commons, correct? (e.g., he has no vote except to break a tie, and even when breaking a tie is obligated to vote against amendments and final passages)

So even if the Grits gain a seat, the new breakdown would be 54-36-17, but in terms of votes it'd only be 53 for the government and 53 for the opposition, with the tie-breaking vote going to a Speaker who votes down everything, so the Liberals would still need to be getting outside support to get things passed.

Is this not correct? I'll admit I'm making some assumptions here; I'm not entirely sure the Speaker's casting vote works like that in Ontario, especially since they do get to keep their label and everything.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on April 28, 2012, 04:41:43 AM
By the way, the federal NDP held the riding between 1968 and 1979.  It is normally a Liberal riding though.

Remember that back then, the riding was much larger and rather strangely configured, reaching all the way down to Cambridge.

Even so, for the NDP to do well isn't out of the question: keep in mind that its federal (and by proxy, maybe, provincial) vote in 2011 was probably significantly "suppressed" by former Liberal MP Andrew Telegdi absorbing so much of the nominal anti-Tory energy--the inverse of the cratering-ex-incumbent situation in Brant, Welland, etc...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on April 28, 2012, 08:39:19 AM
There is no good reason why the NDP cannot be competitive in Waterloo, particularly when the party is over 30% in the polls province-wide. It's a very middle class typical Ontario place that is not that different in its makeup from ridings the NDP wins like London-Fanshawe. It's hard to judge by recent election results since the NDP did not target the riding at all and left it as a conservative/Liberal face off. If the NDP spends the maximum allowed and sends in the troops and gets a good candidate (all of which I expect they will) don't be surprised to see the NDP very much in contention here.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 28, 2012, 08:54:06 AM
FTR the riding also has the University of Waterloo, making it a "university riding". The NDP could win there, but I don't know. It didn't even go NDP in 1990, when it was an open seat. That was Witmer's first victory, where she got 37% . The NDP was 2nd at 29% and Telegdi, was running for the Liberals, and got 24%. BTW, if he runs, he'll likely win.

Side note: Why is this riding called Kitchener-Waterloo, anyways? It should be Waterloo-Kitchener. I know the metro area is called K-W, but this riding is mostly a Waterloo riding.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 28, 2012, 10:28:58 AM
I should've posted this earlier, but here is the poll by poll map for the entire province: http://www.globalnews.ca/pages/topicNew.aspx?id=6442556629

Gosh. My poll almost went PC.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 28, 2012, 10:47:36 AM
My poll had a 26% turnout lol, but we won over 50% of the vote here. It appears we did the best in low turnout areas, which might explain why we lost.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 28, 2012, 10:49:57 AM
Mine was 41%. That's depressing. I'm upset now.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on April 28, 2012, 11:14:05 AM
FTR the riding also has the University of Waterloo, making it a "university riding". The NDP could win there, but I don't know. It didn't even go NDP in 1990, when it was an open seat. That was Witmer's first victory, where she got 37% . The NDP was 2nd at 29% and Telegdi, was running for the Liberals, and got 24%. BTW, if he runs, he'll likely win.

Re 1990, I'd offer that it was an odd circumstance in an overall odd election, and that it probably would have gone NDP had Witmer, through her strong 2nd place finish in '87, not been positioned as the official "pox on the Peterson house" choice around these parts.  (And for the record, pre-Witmer it was solidly provincial Liberal for years under Ernie Epp, back when the Liberals were something of a "SW Ontario Heartland" provincial party of record.)

And also, within the present boundaries (i.e. factoring out rural Wellesley and Woolwich and taking in the northern fringe of Kitchener), K-W would have been nominally NDP in 1990.

All that, plus Telegdi's federal record, helps to affirm the "more a Witmer seat than a PC seat" argument--but even if Telegdi were the standard-bearer, the biggest crimp for the McGuinty Liberals, currently, is their low (and even 3rd-place?!?) standing in the polls.  It's in light of apparent Horwathmania that I'm offering a "monitor the NDP" argument; at any rate, I doubt we're back to the old pattern of such byelections working out as straight PC-Lib slugfests with NDP marginalized into single digits (or behind-the-Greens) anymore...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 28, 2012, 11:38:05 AM
Is there a reason for the NDP surge in Ontario and nationally lately? Mulcair bump?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 28, 2012, 12:14:29 PM
FTR the riding also has the University of Waterloo, making it a "university riding". The NDP could win there, but I don't know. It didn't even go NDP in 1990, when it was an open seat. That was Witmer's first victory, where she got 37% . The NDP was 2nd at 29% and Telegdi, was running for the Liberals, and got 24%. BTW, if he runs, he'll likely win.

Re 1990, I'd offer that it was an odd circumstance in an overall odd election, and that it probably would have gone NDP had Witmer, through her strong 2nd place finish in '87, not been positioned as the official "pox on the Peterson house" choice around these parts.  (And for the record, pre-Witmer it was solidly provincial Liberal for years under Ernie Epp, back when the Liberals were something of a "SW Ontario Heartland" provincial party of record.)

And also, within the present boundaries (i.e. factoring out rural Wellesley and Woolwich and taking in the northern fringe of Kitchener), K-W would have been nominally NDP in 1990.

All that, plus Telegdi's federal record, helps to affirm the "more a Witmer seat than a PC seat" argument--but even if Telegdi were the standard-bearer, the biggest crimp for the McGuinty Liberals, currently, is their low (and even 3rd-place?!?) standing in the polls.  It's in light of apparent Horwathmania that I'm offering a "monitor the NDP" argument; at any rate, I doubt we're back to the old pattern of such byelections working out as straight PC-Lib slugfests with NDP marginalized into single digits (or behind-the-Greens) anymore...

Herb Epp. Not Ernie Epp. Ernie was an NDP MP in the 1980s.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on April 28, 2012, 01:24:28 PM
Is there a reason for the NDP surge in Ontario and nationally lately? Mulcair bump?

Many things. Nationally, Mulcair helps, definitely. The Tories have also been pretty incompetent lately (unpopular budget, lying about F-35's, trust issues) and the NDP is now seen as the alternative, not the Liberals. Mulcair has a pretty good team and there has not been any gaffes (yet?).

Ontario's different. Sure, the NDP is in second place (provincially and federally), but who knows where that support is coming from? It might just be that the party is consolidating their support in ridings that they won last year? The Tories would still probably win 60+ ridings in the province even if the numbers are 37 Con - 31 NDP.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on April 28, 2012, 03:40:14 PM
Herb Epp. Not Ernie Epp. Ernie was an NDP MP in the 1980s.

Thanks.  All those elected Epps in the 80s blur into each other.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on April 28, 2012, 03:44:17 PM
Is there a reason for the NDP surge in Ontario and nationally lately? Mulcair bump?

Many things. Nationally, Mulcair helps, definitely. The Tories have also been pretty incompetent lately (unpopular budget, lying about F-35's, trust issues) and the NDP is now seen as the alternative, not the Liberals. Mulcair has a pretty good team and there has not been any gaffes (yet?).

Ontario's different. Sure, the NDP is in second place (provincially and federally), but who knows where that support is coming from? It might just be that the party is consolidating their support in ridings that they won last year? The Tories would still probably win 60+ ridings in the province even if the numbers are 37 Con - 31 NDP.

Provincially, actually, it appears to have a lot to do with Andrea Horwath's performance relative to the McGuinty minority-budget negotiations--she seems to have struck a popular (and populist) chord there...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 28, 2012, 05:24:37 PM
I doubt Kitchener-Waterloo will go NDP as they generally get below the provincial average here, although I could see the Liberals picking up as if you look at the federal results the Liberals usually were above the provincial average while the Conservatives slightly below, although they did win it last federal election but they won the majority of seats in Ontario.  Elizabeth Witmer largely held the riding due to personal popularity.  That being said because the riding will determine whether McGuinty gets his majority or not, a lot of people will vote differently than they would in a general election.  Otherwise the question will be does McGuinty deserve a majority or not.  On the one hand some will want stability in this period, thus vote Liberal for that reason, but others feel they need to be kept on a tight leash.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Bacon King on April 28, 2012, 06:11:10 PM
Maybe I'm missing something here, but wouldn't a Liberal victory in the by-election be completely irrelevant?

The Speaker is a Liberal, and he's bound by the same rules as the Speaker of the House of Commons, correct? (e.g., he has no vote except to break a tie, and even when breaking a tie is obligated to vote against amendments and final passages)

So even if the Grits gain a seat, the new breakdown would be 54-36-17, but in terms of votes it'd only be 53 for the government and 53 for the opposition, with the tie-breaking vote going to a Speaker who votes down everything, so the Liberals would still need to be getting outside support to get things passed.

Is this not correct? I'll admit I'm making some assumptions here; I'm not entirely sure the Speaker's casting vote works like that in Ontario, especially since they do get to keep their label and everything.

I'm requoting this because it seems to have been ignored. Because Ontario's non-voting speaker is a Liberal, the NDP and PC's currently outnumber the Liberals by a single vote. A government victory in the by-election would only give them half of the votes, with the Speaker breaking ties. Is the Ontario Speaker not bound by casting-vote precedents as in other Westminster-style systems?

Presuming the Liberals do win the by-election, can the Speaker resign his office in the middle of the session to allow his party to elect someone from the opposition so they can have a true majority?   


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on April 28, 2012, 06:31:39 PM
I doubt Kitchener-Waterloo will go NDP as they generally get below the provincial average here,

Though they were actually above the provincial average here in 2007, thanks to a serious campaign by school trustee Catherine Fife--unfortunately for her, that was still the "strategic vote = Liberal" era; but if anyone were to score the seat for the NDP now, it'd be her, I suspect...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on April 28, 2012, 06:59:50 PM
Maybe I'm missing something here, but wouldn't a Liberal victory in the by-election be completely irrelevant?

The Speaker is a Liberal, and he's bound by the same rules as the Speaker of the House of Commons, correct? (e.g., he has no vote except to break a tie, and even when breaking a tie is obligated to vote against amendments and final passages)

So even if the Grits gain a seat, the new breakdown would be 54-36-17, but in terms of votes it'd only be 53 for the government and 53 for the opposition, with the tie-breaking vote going to a Speaker who votes down everything, so the Liberals would still need to be getting outside support to get things passed.

Is this not correct? I'll admit I'm making some assumptions here; I'm not entirely sure the Speaker's casting vote works like that in Ontario, especially since they do get to keep their label and everything.

I'm requoting this because it seems to have been ignored. Because Ontario's non-voting speaker is a Liberal, the NDP and PC's currently outnumber the Liberals by a single vote. A government victory in the by-election would only give them half of the votes, with the Speaker breaking ties. Is the Ontario Speaker not bound by casting-vote precedents as in other Westminster-style systems?

Presuming the Liberals do win the by-election, can the Speaker resign his office in the middle of the session to allow his party to elect someone from the opposition so they can have a true majority?   

The tradition is regardless of party the speaker always votes whichever way will keep debate going.  That is a longtime parliamentary tradition dating back over 400 years.  He would vote with the Liberals in this case, but so would the same thing happen with an NDP or PC speaker as voting against the government would cause it to fall, thus not maintaining debate.  Off course this is just a tradition not a requirement, but generally most speakers do.  In fact in Britain the speaker will usually run as an independent unlike in Canada where the tradition comes from.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on April 29, 2012, 10:26:16 AM
Interesting to note (re this byelection being about about "restoring" the Liberal majority) that Andrea Horwath entered Queen's Park under similar circumstances, i.e. a byelection that came to be about restoring the NDP's Official Party Status.  (And there as here, the riding demographics were favourable to the party making the "restoration" bid, even if the departed member was from another party.)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 01, 2012, 08:57:12 PM
()


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 02, 2012, 12:05:57 AM
Why are we posting graphics from that site?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Lief 🗽 on May 02, 2012, 01:05:21 AM
From the Globe and Mail?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 02, 2012, 09:17:14 AM

No, 308.com (The guy there does stuff for the G&M)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on May 02, 2012, 05:47:14 PM
He's not doing seat projections until the new boundaries are out, apparently.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 02, 2012, 10:41:43 PM
He's not doing seat projections until the new boundaries are out, apparently.

Those look like projections to me.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 05, 2012, 06:42:59 PM
FR poll of the Kitchener-Waterloo race: http://www.therecord.com/news/local/article/717057--poll-suggests-liberals-could-win-kitchener-waterloo-riding

:( :( :(



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on May 05, 2012, 07:09:22 PM
The candidates haven't even been nominated. Cool your jets.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 05, 2012, 07:11:09 PM
Hopefully not. There was an article earlier today that McGuinty might try this gambit in a couple of other seats.

http://www.therecord.com/news/canada/article/718609--liberals-courting-tory-and-ndp-mpps


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 06, 2012, 11:54:06 AM
The candidates haven't even been nominated. Cool your jets.

I know, but it's not a good place to start.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 10, 2012, 01:41:39 PM
Another resignation.

David Whissell, MNA for Argenteuil since 1998, resigned today, officially to do other things. Opposition parties are saying than it is probably to escape the ethics rules beginning on January 1st. He is an owner of a big paving company. He prefered resigning as Labour Minister than to sell it, a few years ago.

Last time it didn't elected a Liberal was 1962. Another riding with a significant Anglophone minority. It is also the riding of the Green leader.

Results since Whissell is elected (according to quebecpolitique website):

June 1998 by-election
Liberals: 57%
PQ: 38%
ADQ: 5%

November 1998
Liberals: 42%
PQ: 42%
ADQ: 13%
Others: Bloc Pot (marijuana) 1.2%, Ind 0.7%, Natural Law 0.3%, PDS (the remainers of the NDP-Quebec) 0.3%
Finally, Whissell is relected by 148 votes.

April 2003
Liberals: 53%
PQ: 25%
ADQ: 18%
Greens: 2.1%
Bloc Pot: 1.2% (yes, again)

March 2007
Liberals: 38%
ADQ: 30%
PQ: 26%
Greens: 4.7%
QS: 2.3%

December 2008
Liberals: 50%
PQ: 33%
ADQ: 11%
Greens: 3.5%
QS: 2.1%

Here is Argenteuil.

()

Diverse and complicated riding.

Many Anglos rural small villages, even if some are less and less Anglo (Gore Township, Wentworth-Nord), in the lower Rouge Valley and along Ottawa River.

Some villages which isn't really in Argenteuil area, which are more in the Laurentians, with the Highway 15 as the big axis and are more French (Saint-Adolphe-d'Howard, Montcalm), including a very rich Liberal ski and spa resort, despite being Francophone (Morin Heights).

A regional center (Lachute) which is more and more exurban.

Mille-Isles and Saint-Colomban, which are very very near of the city of Saint-Jérome which has a commuter rail (train de banlieue) leading directly in Montreal downtown. So, Saint-Colomban, formely a rural village, is now a booming exurb.
Talking of Saint-Colomban, the ADQ was second in half the precincts of the "parish" (which is a legal status for little villages). Liberals being third, in those, with pretty awful result in some precincts (the worst by 13%).

Grey precincts are Lib-PQ ties.

Quoted from another thread, because it was called for June 11, as the by-election in LaFontaine, to replace Tony Tomassi, a Liberal MNA which was expelled from the party (and of Family Ministry) after media learned a business (BCIA) gave him a credit card. He didn't came into the Assembly since then and he was under inquiry for absenteism.

This post is probably long enough, so, the candidates and the LaFontaine preview will go in a future post.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 10, 2012, 02:49:37 PM
Candidates in Argenteuil.
Liberal: Lise Proulx, former president of the Argenteuil Hospital Foundation, former press attachée of the MNA when he was Labour minister, former communication director of the Argenteuil Health and Social Services Centre (CSSS), currently information agent at the Argenteuil CSSS.

PQ: Roland Richer, former elementary school director, defeated candidate for PQ investiture for the 1998 by-election.

CAQ: Mario Laframboise, BQ MP for Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel from 2000 to 2011 (defeated by NDP), former mayor of Notre-Dame-de-la-Paix, former prefect of Papineau MRC.

Greens: Claude Sabourin, Green leader since 2010, teacher, author, Green candidate in Argenteuil in 2003 (2.1%), 2007 (4.7%) and 2008 (3.5%) and federal Green candidate in Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel in 2004 (5.1%) and 2006 (4.6%)

QS: Yan Zanetti, voluntary fireman and guy who fixes and builds houses, living in Wentworth.

Conservative: Jean Lecavalier, former teacher, former president of the ADQ-Argenteuil, ADQ candidate in 2007 in Nelligan (western Montreal,), former municipal councillor in L'Île-Bizard (western Montreal). Wierd party, as they apparently compare themselves to National Union.
It fits with the 3 priorities of the candidate: Reopen Mirabel Airport, better ambulatory care in Argenteuil and asking government money to fix a municipal pool, all right-wing ideas...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 10, 2012, 02:53:17 PM
Reopening a useless airport and infrastructure spending are right-wing ideas? Anyhoo this by-election looks like a Pelquiste wash.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 10, 2012, 03:11:09 PM
Reopening a useless airport and infrastructure spending are right-wing ideas?

No. It was irony and a a prolongation of their comparaison with the National Union, which was more patronage than ideology.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 10, 2012, 03:35:21 PM
Finally. Will we get to see some maps of LaFontaine as well?

BTW, LaFontaine is basically the Montreal suburb of Riviere-des-Prairies. The riding should be named that.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 10, 2012, 03:42:34 PM
Finally. Will we get to see some maps of LaFontaine as well?

BTW, LaFontaine is basically the Montreal suburb of Riviere-des-Prairies. The riding should be named that.

Yes, even if it will be boring and perhaps not before Victoria Day, unless you write my 20-page final lab report.

Earl, well, you know than the Quebec commission loves to name ridings about people.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 10, 2012, 03:46:00 PM
No rush.

I know. I hate riding names named after people. Especially when the riding name would be obvious and not controversial such as this one.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 10, 2012, 03:48:36 PM
We don't have any controversial riding names. If someone started using 20th-century political VIPs then maybe, but that hasn't happened yet. Sole exception is Con-derre's riding of Bourassa and even that isn't a BFD here.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on May 10, 2012, 07:36:37 PM
We don't have any controversial riding names. If someone started using 20th-century political VIPs then maybe, but that hasn't happened yet. Sole exception is Con-derre's riding of Bourassa and even that isn't a BFD here.

The riding of Bourassa is actually NOT named after Robert Bourassa. Its named after Henri Bourassa (no relation) who founded Le Devoir about 100 years ago. The riding has had that name since the early 70s when Robert Bourassa was a first term premier.

There are ridings named after many other former premiers (ie: Taschereau, Duplessis, Jean Lesage, Johnson, Rene Levesque). Its hard to imagine having ridings in Ontario named "George Drew" or "Davis" or "Bob Rae" etc... BTW: In Australia almost all ridings are named after famous people such as ex-PMs and more often then not the name of a riding tells you nothing about where it is located.

That being said, why not rename "Toronto-Danforth" as "Layton" and maybe also rename Mount Royal "Trudeau"...Mount Royal is already a bit of a misnomer since the riding is actually no where near the mountain. Westmount-Ville Marie actually has all of Mount Royal in it!

God forbid that they ever re-name Prince Albert "Diefenbaker"! I think the only case of a riding outside Quebec being named for a politician is Buranby-Douglas which is named after Tommy Douglas who used to represent it in the 60s.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 10, 2012, 07:43:51 PM
I think than Rogue knows than Bourassa is for Henri.

True than he forgot René-Lévesque, Duplessis, Taschereau, Johnson, Gouin and Jean-Lesage.

And Mount Royal isn't about the mount (which is in Outremont, not in Westmount--Ville-Marie!), but about the Town of Mount Royal (often called TMR in English).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on May 10, 2012, 07:49:05 PM
Yes, but TMR is actually quite a small part of the riding of Mount Royal. Looking at a map, the "mount" is about two-thirds in Westmount and about one third in Outremont...the names themselves tell the story "Westmount" refers to the western slope of the mountain and "outremont" means "other-side' or "over the mountain" in French.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 10, 2012, 07:52:03 PM
Not federally- those are all provincial ridings (and none of those are controversial ATM), and I'm well aware about Aussie ridings.

Federally: I prefer our tradition to the Aussie one.

One thing's for sure: there won't be a federal by-election to open room for a new Liberal leader.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on May 10, 2012, 07:53:00 PM
I think than Rogue knows than Bourassa is for Henri.

True than he forgot René-Lévesque, Duplessis, Taschereau, Johnson, Gouin and Jean-Lesage.

And Mount Royal isn't about the mount (which is in Outremont, not in Westmount--Ville-Marie!), but about the Town of Mount Royal (often called TMR in English).

There is also a Sauve riding that i assume is named after ex-Premier Paul Sauve. Nothing for Adelard Godbout or Antonio Barrette though...someday i guess we will have endure having Sherbrooke renamed "Charest" and Lac St. Jean will become "Bouchard"


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 10, 2012, 07:54:20 PM
I would argue than all of the Mount Royal Park and the cemetaries in the Outremont riding (not in Outremont borough, through).

Anyways, Mount Royal has three summits. Someone has a topological map to clear that issue?

Bouchard represented Jonquière, not Lac-Saint-Jean.

EDIT: Two of the three summits, including the biggest one which is ALWAYS referred as the Mount Royal, unlike the two others, are in Outremont riding (between the university and the cemetaries, in fact).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 10, 2012, 08:02:10 PM
Speaking of Bourassa, there are still rumours swirling that Coderre will resign to run for mayor next year. Personally I'm doubtful because: a) the rules are written so that a non-established party with minimal financing will find it near-impossible to gain a foothold b) Tremblay has been fairly clear about his third-term intentions for a while. All that would do is split the federalist vote and elect Harel or the truther.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 10, 2012, 08:05:12 PM
If Union Montreal is smart, they would dump Tremblay and run Coderre.
2009 was quite close and you can't expect the vote of his opponents to split almost 50-50 like the last time.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 10, 2012, 08:16:25 PM
I'll take Tremblay. If Coderre does run then that seat falls. No Liberal seat in Quebec can be reasonably sure without the current incumbent, possibly excepting St. Leonard-St. Michel.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 10, 2012, 08:21:09 PM
To end the paranthesis on municipal elections, who is right?
You must be domiciliated in Quebec since 6 months or You must be domiciliated in the city since 6 months?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 10, 2012, 08:24:04 PM
No idea. Anyhoo, I expect the PLQ to hold Whissell's seat.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 10, 2012, 08:35:36 PM
I agree, but I reserve the right of changing my mind in case there is a significant change in the political situation.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 10, 2012, 10:15:49 PM
I would say "Duplessis" is a rather controversial name, considering he's Canada's most fascist Premier.

I wasn't aware Burnaby-Douglas was named after Tommy. I had always assumed part of the riding had a neighbourhood or a street called Douglas.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 10, 2012, 10:49:31 PM
Well, there is a Tommy Douglas neighbourhood and a Douglas Road, but they are also named about Tommy Douglas.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 10, 2012, 10:57:24 PM
Gouin is named after Lomer but personally I've always found Paul by far the more interesting figure.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on May 10, 2012, 11:02:31 PM
Speaking of Bourassa, there are still rumours swirling that Coderre will resign to run for mayor next year. Personally I'm doubtful because: a) the rules are written so that a non-established party with minimal financing will find it near-impossible to gain a foothold b) Tremblay has been fairly clear about his third-term intentions for a while. All that would do is split the federalist vote and elect Harel or the truther.

FYI, Tremblay was first elected in 2001. This is currently his third term and if he runs again it will be for a fourth term. Everyone says they are running for reelection until they are not. I assume that either Coderre will challenge Tremblay for the nomination as mayoral candidate for his party, OR, Tremblay has privately signalled that he won't run again and Coderre is his hand picked successor.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 10, 2012, 11:17:02 PM
What's with the tone? I make a typo once in a while but I'm also a lifelong Montrealer who's in tune with city politics. Coderre has no affiliations with UM and Tremblay's Liberal associations are with the PLQ in whose Cabinets he used to serve. He has connections to federal Tories as well- why do you think Dimitri Soudas got that patronage gig at the port after leaving the PMO?

That said, Tremblay doesn't have any successor on the horizon that I've heard of. It can't be an Anglophone and a fair few of his prominent senior people like Applebaum are Anglos. Denis Coderre as mayor of Montreal is quite frankly laughable. The man's a political thug whose "organizational skills" are nonexistent judging by the results he's gotten the PLC these past 2 elections.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 11, 2012, 11:53:07 PM
So, LaFontaine, named about Louis-Hippolyte La Fontaine, co-prime minister of Province of Canada in the 19th century and one of the father of responsible government in Canada.

LaFontaine is a riding in Eastern Montreal, more exactly the western half of the Rivière-des-Prairies—Pointe-aux-Trembles borough, which means than it covers the former city of Rivière-des-Prairies.

That district doesn’t have much special areas, except many buildings lot and a new controversial toll bridge linking it to Laval, which shorten the Laval-North Shore/Eastern Montreal trip and a jail. The eastern half of the riding is empty, so new neighborhoods are being built there, with similar houses, like in suburban areas. There is many condos in the western half, especially near the St. Lawrence, however, some are in a bad state.

For demographical data, there is a wonderful document called Socioeconomical Files (but in French only). Here’s the link for LaFontaine:  http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/dossier-socio-economique/2006/lafontaine.pdf  (http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/dossier-socio-economique/2006/lafontaine.pdf)

So, that riding has three main demographics, which all favours the Liberals. First of all, immigrants, especially Italians. The mother tongue of the inhabitants is English for 9.3% of them, French for 43.2% of them and 47.5% have another first language, mainly Italian, but Creole and Spanish is common, too. When the language talked at home is asked, 52.7% are saying French, 26.1% are saying English and 21.1% are saying another language, in the same pattern observed for mother tongue. Finally, 32% of the population of LaFontaine is immigrants. As immigrants are one of the more Liberal-voting populations, it’s good for them.

However, even it’s an immigrant area, it’s not poor. The average annual income is 3,000$ higher than the national mean and the average median income is 6,000$ above the provincial one. 15.5% of the population has an income over 100.000$, which is in line with presence of condos and suburban developments, but also poorer parts of the riding which have older housing. People with a higher income are more likely to vote Liberal.

Politically, it’s described as a safe Liberal riding, but it wasn’t always like that. It was one of the 7 ridings which elected a PQ MNA in 1970 and one of the six in 1973, but then the riding included Pointe-aux-Trembles and Montréal-Est, which are more independantist and then, at each redistricting, it lost parts of Montréal-Est and Pointe-aux-Trembles, making it more and more Liberal. PQ finally lost in 1985 and never came close of regaining it.
 
Since 2003, its MNA was Tony Tomassi, son of Donato Tomassi, main shareholder of Genco, one of the biggest construction businesses in Quebec and big Liberal donator. In 2008, he was named Family Minister. He got into spotlight when, in early 2010, opposition accused the government of attributing the 7-dollar childcare places to projects proposed by liberal donators (that program is than it is child care for 7$/day, government is paying the balance. Since there are only a limited number of places, the places are attributed to specific child care centers).

During that scandal, it was discovered than he used a credit card given by a security company, BCIA (now bankrupt), owned by Luigi Coretti, in exchange of him convincing the Public Surety minister to give him a special weapon permit, which is downright illegal. So, on May 6, 2010, he resigned as minister and left the Liberal caucus. He didn’t came to the Assembly since then. Since then, he is prosecuted for fraud against the government and confidence abuse. He finally resigned on May 3th, after a CAQ MNA deposed a complaint to the Ethics Commissioner about his absenteeism.



So, as the situation is presented, only the candidates and the past results are missing. As of now, there are 3 candidates.

Liberals: Marc Tanguay. They wanted to run Pablo Rodriguez, Liberal MP of Honoré-Mercier from 2004 to 2011 (lost to NDP), but he declined. Marc Tanguay is the President of Quebec Liberal Party, since 2009. He is also a lawyer (at a cabinet called Delegatus). He also was Innovation Director at GE Capital. His nomination is apparently not well received by the Italian population, as he doesn’t know the area at all, as he lives in a South Shore suburb/exurb. He ran in Chambly in 2007 (south shore), then a bellweather, to replace a retiring one-term incumbent, but finished 3rd (24%), the winner being the ADQ candidate Richard Merlini.

CAQ: Domenico Cavaliere. Another lawyer, who lives in LaFontaine this time. He also was a commercialization analyst for a distillery. First time he runs for something, apparently.

QS: Julien Demers, which has no bio existing online but ran three times in Deux-Montagnes (north shore suburb), for UFP in 2003 (4th, 1.3%), QS in 2007 (5th, 2.2%) and 2008 (5th, 2.3%). He finished behind Greens because the Green leader was running there, then.



Finally, the past results since 1994.¸
September 1994
Liberals: 56%
PQ: 35%
ADQ: 8%
Others: Innovative: 0.9% (single issue, for an universal retirement system), Natural Law 0.9%, 

November 1998
Liberals: 58%
PQ: 30%
ADQ: 11%
Others: Innovative: 0.4%, PDS (the remainers of the NDP-Quebec) 0.4%

April 2003 (redistricting finally removed all of Pointe-aux-Trembles)
Liberals: 70%
PQ: 19%
ADQ: 10%
Bloc Pot : 1.2% (marijuana)  

March 2007
Liberals: 62%
ADQ: 18%
PQ: 14%
Greens: 2.9%
QS: 2.1%

December 2008
Liberals: 70%
PQ: 19%
ADQ: 6.5%
Greens: 2.7%
QS: 1.9%


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 12, 2012, 09:09:02 PM
And the map:

()

The weak Liberal area in the west is a big cluster of retirement houses along Gouin Blvd (they vote Liberal, but less than Italians).

The east of riding is the new area of Pointe-aux-Prairies, near the park of the same name and in the municipal ward of the same name, halfway between Rivière-des-Prairies and Pointe-aux-Trembles, more suburban. The name was found by a kid in a competition in the local elementary schools, to mix the name of the two areas. Politically, it's a mix, too, being a swing area at all levels.

Best Liberal result is 97%.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 13, 2012, 09:53:55 PM
Oh, God.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/349847/les-politiciens-ont-peur-de-leur-ombre (http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/349847/les-politiciens-ont-peur-de-leur-ombre)

Donato Tomassi, father of Toni, gave an interview to Le Devoir, were he said perturbing things.

He says than inquiries are focused on them because they are italians and than is racism.
He says than they are rejected even if they have talent, guts and charisma like his son (????).
He says than he treated Jean Charest like a king and than it is unfair to treat like bad after he did that.
And he is saying than we want to "transfrom Quebec in a monastry, where we can't help our friends. What are the purpose of having friends if we can't help them?"

He seems to see patronage and corruption as normal. Creepy.



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 13, 2012, 10:27:14 PM
Great stuff, Max!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 14, 2012, 01:28:38 PM
Quebec hasn't changed that much since the late '70s on corruption issues but these days you have to at least try and keep things an open secret rather than completely public.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 14, 2012, 04:30:53 PM
Another resignation in Quebec!

Line Beauchamp, Education Minister, Vice-PM, MNA for Sauvé from 1998 to 2003, MNA for Bourassa-Sauvé since 2003.

She resigns over "failure to solve the student crisis". I think more than she was disagreeing with Charest line on it or than government decided to throw her under the bus.

Also, another Vice-PM to resign in the year. Also the 4th high-profile minister to resign (not counting Béchard who resigned 3 days before his death).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 14, 2012, 04:51:25 PM
Charest has the same Catherine wheel effect on his senior ministers that late-term Thatcher did on hers. Bellemare, Couillard, Mulcair, MGT, Normandeau... now Beauchamp.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 14, 2012, 04:56:30 PM
Charest has the same Catherine wheel effect on his senior ministers that late-term Thatcher did on hers. Bellemare, Couillard, Mulcair, MGT, Normandeau... now Beauchamp.

Séguin, Dupuis...

EDIT: And we forgot the obvious one, Mulcair.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 14, 2012, 05:10:00 PM
Interesting that Beauchamp and Coderre share the same territory.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 14, 2012, 05:58:00 PM
Interesting that Beauchamp and Coderre share the same territory.

Well, Coderre's riding is equivalent to Tomassi and Beauchamp ones.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on May 14, 2012, 09:08:49 PM
I think Coderre should resign his federal seat and run in the provincial byelection in Bourassa-Sauve. That way he can try to succeed Charest at PLQ leader and then the NDP can easily scopp up the federal Bourassa seat in a byelection!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 14, 2012, 09:18:08 PM
Not happening. If Charest calls a fall election there won't be a by-election anyways.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on May 14, 2012, 09:24:55 PM
In that case Coderre can run in the riding in the provincial general election. its a win-win for him. If Charest wins, he gets into cabinet for sure and if Charest loses he would be a top contender for the PLQ leadership (who else is there). Let's face it the federal Lioberals are moribund and Coderre must be think of an exit strategy from the sinking ship.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 14, 2012, 09:30:00 PM
Why would anyone want Coderre anyways?

On Bourassa-Sauve: Easy PLQ hold.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: canadian1 on May 14, 2012, 11:57:34 PM
Coderre's riding doesn't overlap Tomassi's; it includes all of Beauchamp's and some of Lisette Lapointe's (Cremazie).

I have my doubts that the NDP could "easily" win Bourassa federally. I think that the LPC would probably have something of a leg up on the Dippers when in comes to candidate recruitment--much longer-established party organization in that part of town (plus I'm not convinced Coderre's style has been an asset to his party; a new candidate might prove more popular). On the other hand, there's no reason why the NDP couldn't find itself a high-quality candidate given the current political environment under Mulcair, and they have to be considered the overall favourites. But I don't think it will happen. I think Coderre will likely stay put for the time being, and if he bolts, I'm not sure it will be to provincial politics.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 15, 2012, 01:39:20 AM
Yes, there is an over lap, between the hospital and Fernard-Gauthier.
I have family in that overlap.

And Coderre is very popular in his area, from what my relatives being there are saying.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 16, 2012, 10:24:13 PM
Resignation of Tory MLA Margaret-Ann Blaney in Rothesay, NB today. Riding has been Tory since 1999.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 18, 2012, 03:02:47 PM
For people not reading the Canadian International Board, there will perhaps be a by-election in Etobicoke-Center (federal), after the Superior Court voided the election for irregularities.

The Conservative MP can still appeal it to the Supreme Court, so, it's not sure yet.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on May 18, 2012, 05:06:57 PM
It would be an interesting by-election, I believe. I don't think the Conservatives have much of a chance, but neither do the NDP. Still.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 21, 2012, 11:12:19 AM
Safe Liberal seat, really. Not good news for the NDP.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on May 21, 2012, 03:15:18 PM
Why?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 21, 2012, 06:23:58 PM

A Liberal victory could be seen as a resurgence of the Liberals, especially in the all important 416 area. Etobicoke Centre doesn't have the right demographics to go NDP. Both Etobicoke Centre ridings avoided going NDP in the 1990 provincial wave.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 21, 2012, 06:25:40 PM
It's only a by-election. Get your defensive arguments in early. Then no worries.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 21, 2012, 06:29:04 PM
This would be a personal victory IMO. Another side effect would be BW using it as a platform to (in vain, obviously) challenge Rae for the leadership given that he's an oft-mentioned candidate.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on May 21, 2012, 10:12:41 PM

A Liberal victory could be seen as a resurgence of the Liberals, especially in the all important 416 area. Etobicoke Centre doesn't have the right demographics to go NDP. Both Etobicoke Centre ridings avoided going NDP in the 1990 provincial wave.

Yeah, but it'd more likely be seen as a resurgence of the Liberals at the expense of the Cons, not at the expense of the NDP.

What the NDP is really seeking here is a "barometer result", not victory per se--though yeah, you'll find those who mouth words about coming through in a three-way.  (At best, I suspect the NDP could "unexpectedly" ascend into the mid-20s a la Don Valley East--and even that isn't necessarily a barrier to Liberal victory, no matter what the strategic-voting advocates tell you.)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on May 22, 2012, 08:38:05 PM
Yes, a Liberal victory in Etobicoke Center will breathe new life into the Liberal Party of Canada, giving them new hope and momentum to win all other ridings that are similar in demographics. Because those are the ridings that party sure needs to win to regain relevance.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 22, 2012, 08:39:57 PM
The Grits would have lost OO even if they hadn't lost a single seat last year. They only get OO back if the BQ comes back and make major inroads in GTA + BC.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on May 22, 2012, 09:20:32 PM
Perhaps the NDP could propose a coalition again, and say that they won't contest Etobicoke Centre if the Libs agree and also agree to no three-cornered contests in seats held by the other party. It would probably cause division in the Liberal ranks, and if the Libs disagree, the NDP could use it as a "we tried to present a united front against the government, but the Liberals weren't interested" and if the Grits agree, the NDP then has an agreement that they won't be challenged by the Liberals in their seats, including their newly-won seats like York SW, and they would have a valid excuse to not contest Etobicoke Centre, and not have to worry about a third place finish there denting their momentum. I think the Liberals would be foolish to accept the deal, but I think the NDP could get mileage out of a rejection.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 22, 2012, 09:24:15 PM
That's exactly what Nathan Cullen proposed during the NDP leadership race. No one in either party wants to touch it with a barge pole. Mulcair was the most adamant in denouncing such an idea.





Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on May 23, 2012, 06:46:19 AM
I suspect it's redundant in the end.  After all, polling indicates that the Grits/Borys already has a ten-point advantage, even with the NDP holding its 2011 share...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 23, 2012, 07:12:23 AM
You should post a link when you mention a poll...

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/05/22/liberal-challenger-ahead-in-toronto-riding-where-judge-ordered-byelection-poll/

Borys: 47
Opitz: 37
NDP: 14


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on May 23, 2012, 01:40:38 PM
The Liberals should win Etobicoke Centre. Its one of maybe 20 ridings in all of Canada that would be classic Tory/Lib Dem marginals if they were in the UK - in other words they have high concentrations of people who are too smart to vote Conservative and also too rich to vote NDP. The probable future for Canada's Liberals is to be a boutique party wealthy professionals and they will have their niche of 20 or so seats (ie: ridings like St. Paul's, Don Valley West, Etobicoke Centre, Westmount, Ottawa South, Lac St. Louis, North vancouver, West Vancouver, Vancouver-Quadra etc...)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 23, 2012, 01:57:09 PM
With a handful of exceptions, most of their current MPs won on personal votes. Bob Rae had a 10-point swing, Brison and LeBlanc also had serious swings against them. BW is winning on a personal vote and he knows it.

No, unfortunately I think any Liberal recovery would be like their UK counterparts' faux recovery in 1929. They can get a few points and some seats back but the foundation has been dynamited by Harper and Layton. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on May 23, 2012, 02:03:30 PM
Borys winning on a personal vote? I'd argue to the contrary: the Tories' position has clearly eroded in their middle to high income urban seats (it was never very strong to begin with, if the NDP surge didn't happen to the extent that it did this would be a comfortable Grit seat) and because of the inherent NDP weakness among this demographic, it's natural that these voters would flock back to their natural Liberal home. There's probably a decent amount of strategic voting from potential NDP supporters going on as well.

I predict that the NDP's support will sink to the single digits and the Liberals will win by a 15 to 20 point margin.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on May 23, 2012, 02:05:48 PM
I agree, but I don't think the Liberals will ever completely vanish - they will rattle along like the British Liberals as a distant third party punished heavily by the FPTP system and reduced to 20-30 seats that will be combination of idiosyncratic seats that happen to have a personally popular Liberal MP and about 10-15 seats across the country that will be the "Liberal base" in that they are larded with rich professionals - and that's it. The Canadian Liberals like their British counterpart will go to bed every night praying that there will be an election that is so close between the two big parties - NDP and CPC that they have the balance of power and can be tossed a few scraps from the adult table.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on May 23, 2012, 02:13:20 PM
I wonder if the Tories will finally begin to make inroads with Anglo Montreal over the next decade. Their performance last year was so piss poor that it's hard to imagine them ever doing very well there but there are a few seats that should be natural territory for them.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 23, 2012, 02:16:05 PM
Though not all personally popular Liberal MPs won. Speaking as an NDG-Lachiner. Otherwise I agree with you.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 23, 2012, 02:23:06 PM
I wonder if the Tories will finally begin to make inroads with Anglo Montreal over the next decade. Their performance last year was so piss poor that it's hard to imagine them ever doing very well there but there are a few seats that should be natural territory for them.

We're getting Mount Royal when Cotler retires in 2015, might have a shot at Lac St. Louis without Scarpaleggia. Westmount-Ville Marie isn't happening because the demographics are wrong- especially in the "Ville Marie" half, full of students and Plateau yuppies.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on May 23, 2012, 03:30:55 PM
I think the Tories will have a very hard time ever winning any anglo seats in Montreal. Anglo Montrealers are extremely socially liberal - even the wealthiest ones. For them toi vote Tory is like expecting someone in Beverly Hills to vote for George W. Bush. I think that when Cotler retires the NDP will make a major play for Mount Royal and the Liberals will drop out of the picture. Mulcair has major links to the Jewish community in Montreal and will probably recruit a star candidate who can make a respectable showing in Cote St. Luc and Hampstead and the rest of the riding is mostly francophone and allophone and abhors the Conservatives. The Tories had their big chance in mount Royal in 2011 and they blew it - it won't happen again.

Keep in mind that if there is one thing that unites Anglos in Montreal its a desire to keep Quebec in Canada. Now that the NDP is led by an anglo-Quebecer and is the voice of Quebec federally - the NDP has become almost reincarnation of the Liberals in the 70s in terms of being "the party of national unity". The Tories are hated in francophone Quebec and are the main reason why Quebec might want to separate - so the last thing anglos in Quebec want is for canada to have a government that hates Quebec.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on May 23, 2012, 03:49:25 PM
I think Itcush only ran once before in the 90s for the NDP and it may also have been in mount Royal. Keep in mind that redistribution may also change the boundaries etc...

There are probably all kinds of high profile people the NDP could run in Mount Royal - there may be municipal politicians from Snowdon or TMR or CSL etc...or people from the school boards remember this will be the government in waiting in 2015. Anyone who is ambitious with vaguely centre-left views on economic and social issues will be a possible candidate. Julius Grey says he wants to run next time for the NDP. Maybe he would try mount Royal?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 23, 2012, 04:08:05 PM
He ran against Dion in '97 and Coderre in '00. As for Grey, no idea.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 23, 2012, 04:09:38 PM
From what I heard, he chose to run there, and given the structuration of the party, the riding associations are existing now and an now decide candidates.

And I think than prospective star candidates will run for the investiture in other, more likely to be won ridings.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 23, 2012, 04:13:01 PM
I think Itcush only ran once before in the 90s for the NDP and it may also have been in mount Royal. Keep in mind that redistribution may also change the boundaries etc...

There are probably all kinds of high profile people the NDP could run in Mount Royal - there may be municipal politicians from Snowdon or TMR or CSL etc...or people from the school boards remember this will be the government in waiting in 2015. Anyone who is ambitious with vaguely centre-left views on economic and social issues will be a possible candidate. Julius Grey says he wants to run next time for the NDP. Maybe he would try mount Royal?

The Snowdon councillor is not left-wing and I doubt very much than TMR has a left-wing councillor. What's CSL?

Last time, Gray as rumored in Westmount--Ville-Marie.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 23, 2012, 04:16:41 PM
I think Itcush only ran once before in the 90s for the NDP and it may also have been in mount Royal. Keep in mind that redistribution may also change the boundaries etc...

There are probably all kinds of high profile people the NDP could run in Mount Royal - there may be municipal politicians from Snowdon or TMR or CSL etc...or people from the school boards remember this will be the government in waiting in 2015. Anyone who is ambitious with vaguely centre-left views on economic and social issues will be a possible candidate. Julius Grey says he wants to run next time for the NDP. Maybe he would try mount Royal?

The Snowdon councillor is not left-wing and I doubt very much than TMR has a left-wing councillor. What's CSL?

Last time, Gray as rumored in Westmount--Ville-Marie.

CSL = Cote St. Luc.



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 23, 2012, 08:50:43 PM
Important map for this discussion:

()


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on May 24, 2012, 07:32:30 AM
Important map for this discussion:

()

Thanks Hatman... one note, the Vieux-Rosemont ward is now held by Project Montreal, they won the by-election just held (an activist beat two previous elected officials, nicely done) That creates a huge green patch in central montreal Le Plateau-Rosemont-Sainte-Anne. I could see a Vision councillor possibly run for the NDP but they seem tied to the Blog, same for Union and the Liberals. PM is probably going to focus on winning council so you might not see to many run federall unless a Plateau council take a run as they "own" that area.
federally the NDP should be working on Ahuntsic and WMV... two polar opposite strategies too... in Ahuntsic a soft souverentist ala Boulerice (sp) would do well here, PM has a councillor there too; In WMV a anglo-federalist type who Westounters would be ok with ala Legace-Dowson could win it. Bourassa and SMSL i think are too ethnic-liberal attached right now... the NDP would need to make huge inroads/have a local ethnic candidate, which i don't know if the NDP has done enough work in those two areas to win-em over. Papineau would be a win if Trudeau wasn't around.
BUt were off topic on the by-elections... Any news on who the candidates are in Kitchener-Waterloo?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 24, 2012, 11:26:53 AM
I agree, but I don't think the Liberals will ever completely vanish - they will rattle along like the British Liberals as a distant third party punished heavily by the FPTP system and reduced to 20-30 seats that will be combination of idiosyncratic seats that happen to have a personally popular Liberal MP and about 10-15 seats across the country that will be the "Liberal base" in that they are larded with rich professionals - and that's it. The Canadian Liberals like their British counterpart will go to bed every night praying that there will be an election that is so close between the two big parties - NDP and CPC that they have the balance of power and can be tossed a few scraps from the adult table.

It's worth noting that there are plenty of examples in the provinces of Liberal parties disappearing altogether; as far as I can tell, there are no comparable examples with provincial NDPs.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on May 24, 2012, 12:18:40 PM
New Brunswick and PEI are the only Prov. NDP wings that have almost reached that point of disapearing... PEI more so where they poll about even with the greens. In NB they suffer from having no incumbents and no major centres to form a base (maybe Saint John but since Weir retired they haven't won a seat). NB seems the best place to start to rebuild over PEI


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on May 24, 2012, 02:56:49 PM
To disappear, you need to exist in the first place. In New Brunswick the NDP has never had more than one seat so it cannot be compared to a province like Manitoba where the Liberals were once government and then official opposition before being annihilated. Things are changing in NB, the federal NDP took 29% of the vote there last year and recent polls have the NB NDP in the low to mid 20s - which would be more than enough to start winning seats in Saint John and maybe Fredericton or Moncton and the Northeast


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on May 24, 2012, 03:50:55 PM
Also, the Rivière-des-Prairies--Pointe-aux-Trembles borough mayorship was won by Vision in a by-election.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 25, 2012, 04:31:29 PM
The by-election in Rothesay, NB will be held June 25.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 25, 2012, 06:17:37 PM
To disappear, you need to exist in the first place. In New Brunswick the NDP has never had more than one seat so it cannot be compared to a province like Manitoba where the Liberals were once government and then official opposition before being annihilated. Things are changing in NB, the federal NDP took 29% of the vote there last year and recent polls have the NB NDP in the low to mid 20s - which would be more than enough to start winning seats in Saint John and maybe Fredericton or Moncton and the Northeast

To be fair, a lot of the NDP vote in New Brunswick is just the result of Yvon Godin's extreme popularity.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 25, 2012, 06:57:53 PM
To disappear, you need to exist in the first place. In New Brunswick the NDP has never had more than one seat so it cannot be compared to a province like Manitoba where the Liberals were once government and then official opposition before being annihilated. Things are changing in NB, the federal NDP took 29% of the vote there last year and recent polls have the NB NDP in the low to mid 20s - which would be more than enough to start winning seats in Saint John and maybe Fredericton or Moncton and the Northeast

To be fair, a lot of the NDP vote in New Brunswick is just the result of Yvon Godin's extreme popularity.

True, but there is some residual strength there now. It's gotten to the point that if Godin were to retire, the NDP would have a shot in keeping the seat. That could not be said for most his elections.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on May 25, 2012, 10:21:27 PM
Godin's popularity in his riding helps drive up the province-wide NDP vote, but let's not forget that the NDP candidate also took 32% in Sain John in federal election and therte was also a near win in Moncton in a tight three way race.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 26, 2012, 05:52:21 AM
Besides, in the era of NPD Québec there's a certain additional logic in that particular part of NB be orange, right?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 26, 2012, 10:34:52 AM
Yes, although you'd think Madawaska-Restigouche would also go NDP, but it's rather Tory friendly (just look at the area provincially)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on May 26, 2012, 01:05:44 PM
Yes, although you'd think Madawaska-Restigouche would also go NDP, but it's rather Tory friendly (just look at the area provincially)

We shall see how "Tory-friendly" Madawaska-Restigouche becomes after the Tory cuts to Employment Insurance come into effect. In that riding a vast percentage of the population gets EI and people will render a harsh verdict on anyone who tampers with the system. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on May 28, 2012, 09:15:59 PM
Yes, although you'd think Madawaska-Restigouche would also go NDP, but it's rather Tory friendly (just look at the area provincially)

Actually it depends on how the riding is divided in the new one.  I should note Madawaska County despite being heavily Francophone is fairly Conservative, but Restigouche County was almost a perfect three way split so the NDP did do quite well there.  Restigouche County is also a coastal one with a lot of seasonal workers thus they would lean more left whereas Madawaska County is an inland one so more agriculture, forestry, as well as a fair number of small business owners.  In any small town you have certain necessities (grocery store, restaurant, gas station, hotel etc.) so the percentage who are business owners tends to be higher than in urban areas.  Generally speaking those who own businesses tend to lean to the right.  Yes rural areas are often poorer but most small business owners don't tend to make a lot of money, however the lower taxes are and the less regulation they have the better for them.  As for EI, I agree this could hurt them in Atlantic Canada much like it did the Liberals in 1997, but I suspect the Tories will be more cautious after all having almost no seats east of the Ottawa River makes winning a majority pretty much next to impossible even with the new seats in Ontario and the West.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on May 28, 2012, 09:19:24 PM
Godin's popularity in his riding helps drive up the province-wide NDP vote, but let's not forget that the NDP candidate also took 32% in Sain John in federal election and therte was also a near win in Moncton in a tight three way race.

I think the riding would be a lot more competitive without Godin, but it is quite possible the NDP would have held it in 2011.  That being said I am pretty sure it would have gone Liberal in 2000, 2004, 2006, and 2008 without him.  As for the province without him, it was 47% Conservative, 24% NDP, 24% Liberal, mind you even without him I am pretty sure this would have been one of the Tory's weaker ridings thus they might have gotten 45 or 46% instead of the 44% they got, while the NDP still would gotten in the upper 20s and Liberals low 20s.  Nonetheless the gap would be wider.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on May 30, 2012, 02:43:09 PM
Tory Backbencher Lee Richardson (Calgary - Centre) is resigning his seat to work with Premier Alison Redford


http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/national/Tory%20backbench%20MP%20Lee%20Richardson%20quitting%20to%20work%20for%20Alberta%20premier/6702779/story.html



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 30, 2012, 05:21:46 PM
Interesting Calgary Centre is the most left wing seat in Calgary. I wonder if the NDP will bother trying to win it.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on May 30, 2012, 06:45:50 PM
Interesting Calgary Centre is the most left wing seat in Calgary. I wonder if the NDP will bother trying to win it.

Actually, it's more of a draw w/Calgary Centre-North on that "inner urban" front (and Calgary North East has, for various mostly-ethnicized reasons, proven even more of a left-of-Tory stronghold lately).  And btw/CC  and CCN, CC has more of a "Liberal" history, and CCN more of an "NDP" history.

Yeah, the NDP have reason to try; but don't be surprised if the Liberals try to pull a few "Nenshi progressives" and "Swann Nation" provincial Grits as well...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 30, 2012, 06:54:03 PM
Interesting Calgary Centre is the most left wing seat in Calgary. I wonder if the NDP will bother trying to win it.
Besides Edmonton Strathcona.  It would really be something if the NDP managed to win it.  Don't wanna get my hopes up though.  The most recent polls I've seen seem to show the NDP's growth being rather stagnant in Alberta, at about the same as it was last May.  Plus, given the way Redford, Wall, and Clark (and especially the media) are going absolutely berserk over tarsands oilsands rhetoric right now, I wouldn't count on a breakthrough in Alberta at this point.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on May 30, 2012, 07:55:00 PM
It may not be a solidy Tory as other Calgary ridings, but I think it would be a huge shocker if the Tories didn't hold this.  I think the real issue is can they stay above 50% as if they fall below 50% there that could suggest problems.  And as others mentioned the Liberals have a much better chance than the NDP, although I would say the odds of either winning are pretty close to zero.  While this includes Calgary-Buffalo which is more left leaning it also includes most of Calgary-Elbow which is Ralph Klein's former riding so the southern parts tend to go pretty heavily conservative like much of the rest of the city.  If anything, the best line of attack would be more the Tories don't welcome Red Tories as Lee Richardson was one of the few Red Tories much like Alison Redford who he is planning on working with.  I have also found Calgary to be very pro-business and many rightly or wrongly (depending on where you stand on the political spectrum) believe socialist parties lead to more stagnant growth.  Many remember the 90s when large numbers from British Columbia and further back when large numbers from Saskatchewan were moving there thus why I think the NDP frightens people so much here.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on May 30, 2012, 08:35:09 PM
Why bother? Mulcair's comments about the oil sands aren't doing the NDP any favours in Alberta. To be honest, I'm a bit concerned about Duncan.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 30, 2012, 08:41:53 PM
Why bother? Mulcair's comments about the oil sands aren't doing the NDP any favours in Alberta. To be honest, I'm a bit concerned about Duncan.

She's safe and quite popular in her riding despite facing a competent, well-liked candidate last year. Having seen her interviewed a few times I've liked her since '08- well, except that she keeps an orange speck in our blue sea. :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 30, 2012, 08:45:06 PM
Why bother? Mulcair's comments about the oil sands aren't doing the NDP any favours in Alberta. To be honest, I'm a bit concerned about Duncan.

Don't worry about her. There's gotta be some place in the province for the left wing people to go. Edmonton-Strathona isn't like the rest of Alberta at all (well, parts of it).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on May 30, 2012, 09:01:36 PM
Well, okay. Still not expecting a result lower than 50% for the Tories.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 30, 2012, 09:08:24 PM
Well, okay. Still not expecting a result lower than 50% for the Tories.

True. But, a really right wing Tory candidate (like Ezra Levant) might turn off enough red Tories to bring them under 50%.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 30, 2012, 09:09:28 PM
What makes you think Levant's running? Last time didn't work out so well for him. :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 30, 2012, 09:11:05 PM
What makes you think Levant's running? Last time didn't work out so well for him. :P

The folks on rabble are suggesting he might run. I dont think he will, but I thought I would use him as an example.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on May 30, 2012, 10:07:41 PM
Its worth noting that historically the NDP has been in single digits in Calgary Centre, but in 2011 the candidate dropped out after the writ was dropped and the NDP had to parachute in a "name on the ballot" from Edmonton who did not campaign and did not respond to the media and did not go to any all-candidates meetings. The NDP still doubled its vote to 15% and was only 2% behind the second place Liberals who ran an active campaign. The Green party actually got 16% in C-Centre in 2008 and then that evaporated to single digits last year.

I think that there is almost no way that the Tories can lose in Calgary Centre, BUT the NDP could still run a very credible candidate, spend the maximum and try to come in a solid second. It would be a good way of making a statement that the NDP under Mulcair is NOT writing off Alberta and is willing to take the fight right into the heart of Harper country!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on May 31, 2012, 06:58:13 AM
Its worth noting that historically the NDP has been in single digits in Calgary Centre,

I don't know what you mean about "historically"; from what I can tell, aside from the AudreyAlexa downtime, the NDP seem to been in double digits (if not *too* far in) at least as often as it hasn't.  (And remember that this is Calgary, where *any* party that isn't Conservative is lucky to crack 20%.)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 31, 2012, 07:30:31 AM
Interestingly, while the Liberals finished 2nd, they didn't win any polls. It was the NDP that won a couple of polls in 2011.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Peter the Lefty on May 31, 2012, 06:05:52 PM
Oh wait...Calgary Centre.  Sorry, I've been sleep deprived lately must have misread it and I guess I though this was Edmonton Centre you guys were talking about (which actually is the second-most left-wing riding in Alberta after Strathcona, followed by Edmonton East).  Nvm.  Tory shoe-in.  It'd be a waste of resources for the NDP to try and win this, unless they think that this could be the next Outremont '07 and that two federal elections from now, Alberta will become an NDP stronghold (which won't happen.)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on May 31, 2012, 07:28:41 PM
It's probably more Mulcair's warpath against the tarsands that renders the NDP uncommonly doomed here, than the simple historical fact that it's Calgary...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on May 31, 2012, 08:55:40 PM
I think the real problem here is in Eastern Canada attacking Alberta oil sands and its wealth is effective at least amongst those who lean left, thus that is why parties on the left consistently perform poorly in Alberta as attacking it may cost them a seat or two but could result in a whole whack of seats in Eastern Canada.  Unfortunately no party seems to believe in the idea of promoting prosperity in every province and hurting one province hurts everyone.  I think unlike other countries Canada's population is mostly spread out along a 5,000 mile narrow strip near the US border so regional divisions are more noticeable than in other countries that are smaller or have higher population densities.  That being said, I think Edmonton East is probably the NDP's best chance at picking up in Alberta.  Although Edmonton Centre is far from a Tory stronghold, they have a lot of yuppies who are wealthy yet progressive thus why they go Liberal and getting them to switch will be tough.  This group is strong in St. Paul's, Vancouver Centre, and Toronto Centre thus why those ridings stayed Liberal. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 31, 2012, 10:50:27 PM
If Albertans want to sacrifice the environment for "prosperity", then there is no reason for the NDP to try to appease to them.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on June 01, 2012, 05:59:11 PM
Well, you know, except it affects many other Canadians, and not just Canadians either, especially since they wanna run pipelines all over the damn place. But we can't criticize Alberta. Ever. It's sacrilege.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on June 02, 2012, 07:12:06 PM
I think if the NDP talked about trying to use the wealth generated from oil for other opportunities in the future, that might work a bit better in Alberta, after all the strong economy based on oil cannot last indefinitely, so there is a good reason to try and build up other areas.  I think what people resent in Alberta is transferring their money to other parts of the country as a re-distribution scheme to punish the wealthy provinces and give to the poorer ones.  Many rightly or wrongly argue Alberta is prosperous due to its pro free market policies and they shouldn't have to pay for provinces that take a more socialist approach.

I also as a general rule think it is best to try and win at least one seat in every province even though I agree Alberta will be a weak spot for the NDP much the way Quebec is for the Tories.  I should note in the last 30 years, most governments won at least one seat in all or nearly all provinces.  The only times they didn't were (1988 in PEI, 1997 in Nova Scotia, 2006 in PEI, and 2008 in Newfoundland & Labrador).  PEI is a relatively small province and the votes evenly distributed so that is probably the least concern for a winning party while 1997 was due to poor distribution as the Liberals got almost as many votes as the NDP and PCs did but were evenly spread out, not concentrated like the PCs in Mainland Rural Nova Scotia and NDP in Halifax and Cape Breton Island.  In 2008, that was a backlash over the equalization changes when Danny Williams ran his ABC campaign.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on June 02, 2012, 07:45:51 PM
I also as a general rule think it is best to try and win at least one seat in every province even though I agree Alberta will be a weak spot for the NDP much the way Quebec is for the Tories. 

Then again, the NDP already has its one seat in Alberta...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 02, 2012, 07:54:17 PM
If the NDP were to get government, it would involve winning seats in every province. I think at that point, Charlottetown would go NDP.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 02, 2012, 08:20:47 PM
BTW, NB NDP leader Dominic Cardy will be running in Rothesay. Not something I would've recommended.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on June 02, 2012, 11:25:01 PM
BTW, NB NDP leader Dominic Cardy will be running in Rothesay. Not something I would've recommended.

What's he got to lose. The NDP has no seats. Rothesay is a suburban Saint John seat where the federal NDP took 30% of the vote last May. Provincially its a super-safe seat so no one expects Cardy to win, least of all the NDP, but in the meantime, he can easily double or triple the vote share the NDP had in the 2010 election, get some media profile and quite possibly come in second. I don't think Cardy is in it to win - he just wants to raise his profile and get some publicity. He only really loses if he fails to increase the NDP vote at all from 2010 - which is extremely unlikely. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 03, 2012, 07:32:57 AM
I was looking at the federal results in Rothesay, and the NDP actually did quite well in the area. They only won one poll, but probably got around 30% of the vote in the area. I don't think "tripling" the vote will be enough for a credible performance here. Cardy probably wont win, but he needs to aim for at least in the 30s, which I dont think is unreasonable.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 06, 2012, 12:59:13 PM
A special treat I've been working on:

()


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on June 06, 2012, 05:57:16 PM
A special treat I've been working on:

()

Probably explains why the Liberals came in second but didn't win any polls unlike the NDP.  The NDP is strongest near the city centre which is the least conservative part of the riding, otherwise the area in Calgary-Buffalo whereas the areas the Liberals came in second tend to be the more conservative parts of the riding anyways.  If Joe Clark's old riding boundaries were used for Calgary Centre the Tories might only get a plurality as the Bow River straddled the centre, not the edge so it encompassed the whole central area not just the southern half (otherwise both Calgary-Buffalo and Calgary-Mountainview).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 06, 2012, 08:25:32 PM
Yes, the Alliance won a plurality in 2000 with present borders:

Canadian Alliance: 44.9%
Progressive Conservative: 36.0%
Liberal: 13.2%
New Democratic Party: 3.4%

The 2000 map is quite interesting, I'll have to make another map. The Alliance was actually quite strong in downtown Calgary, but not that strong in the wealthy Mt Royal area.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 06, 2012, 10:02:55 PM
Didn't take that long to make:

()


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 10, 2012, 11:13:37 PM
New post on the by-elections today: New post on the Quebec by-elections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/06/quebec-provincial-by-elections-today.html



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 11, 2012, 09:12:59 PM
LaFontaine is a clear Liberal win, but, quite underwhelming (they are now at 53%, which is quite weak for them there).

Argenteuil is very tight, PQ and Liberals are in a close race since earlier and both led at some point.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 11, 2012, 09:52:11 PM
OMG looks like the PQ will win Argenteuil. 10 polls left to go:

Richer, Roland (P.Q.)   6 470   36,20 %   510
Proulx, Lise (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   5 960   33,34 %   
Laframboise, Mario (C.A.Q.)   3 831   21,43 %   
Sabourin, Claude (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   534   2,99 %   
Zanetti, Yvan (Q.S.)   482   2,70 %   
Sabourin, Patrick (O.N.)   237   1,33 %   
Lecavalier, Jean (P.CO.Q.)   185   1,04 %   
Lapointe, Georges (IND)   150   0,84 %   
Nicolas, Gérald (É.A.)   26   0,15 %   

Another botched prediction by me :(


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 11, 2012, 09:53:51 PM
The Le Devoir folks will be giddy tomorrow morning, that's for sure. Maromentum.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 11, 2012, 10:06:58 PM
That's the first time the PQ has ever won Argenteuil, by the way.

LaFontaine (final results)

Tanguay, Marc (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   5 446   53,32 %   3 710
St-Jean, Frédéric (P.Q.)   1 736   17,00 %   
Cavaliere, Domenico (C.A.Q.)   1 591   15,58 %   
Rivard, Sébastien (Q.S.)   603   5,90 %   
Bérard, Gaëtan (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   308   3,02 %   
Zambito, Paolo (O.N.)   167   1,64 %   
Raza, Patrice (P.CO.Q.)   129   1,26 %   
Beauchesne, Marc-André (IND)   104   1,02 %   
Blais, Renaud (P.N.)   88   0,86 %   
Boivin, Guy (É.A.)   42   0,41 %   

Not very good numbers for the Liberals who got almost 70% last time.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 11, 2012, 10:09:20 PM
The drop in LaFontaine isn't good for Liberals and I'm shocked by the result in Argenteuil.

Well, I suppose than PQ would win an election, if held today, if they are able to win places like Argenteuil and have swings like that against them.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 11, 2012, 10:10:16 PM
PLQ spin: By-elections don't mean much.

PQ spin: When we win a seat that's been Liberal since Confederation, that's a BFD and Charest will be swept out whenever he pulls the plug.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 11, 2012, 10:12:34 PM
Terrible night for CAQ.

Vote change in LaFontaine

Liberals: -16.44
PQ: -2.11
CAQ: +9.08 (from ADQ)
QS: +3.18
PVQ: +0.29



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 11, 2012, 10:13:45 PM
The ADQ/CAQ surges happen every 4-5 years. 2002, 2006-7, 2011-2. Now they're back where they, IMO, belong. :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 11, 2012, 10:19:01 PM
LOL the Conservatives finish 7th in LaFontaine.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 11, 2012, 10:23:22 PM
LOL the Conservatives finish 7th in LaFontaine.

Who?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 11, 2012, 10:23:22 PM
Turnout in LaFontaine: 26% (lol; usually they have really good participation)
In Argenteuil: 42%

Final Argenteuil numbers:

Richer, Roland (P.Q.)   6 568   36,16 %   +2.54
Proulx, Lise (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   6 067   33,40 %   -16.18
Laframboise, Mario (C.A.Q.)   3 887   21,40 % +10.16
Sabourin, Claude (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   543   2,99 %  -0.49
Zanetti, Yvan (Q.S.)   490   2,70 %   +0.61
Sabourin, Patrick (O.N.)   243   1,34 %   
Lecavalier, Jean (P.CO.Q.)   190   1,05 %   
Lapointe, Georges (IND)   151   0,83 %   
Nicolas, Gérald (É.A.)   26   0,14 %


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 11, 2012, 10:23:52 PM
So the PLQ vote went CAQ.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 11, 2012, 10:25:30 PM

I thought it would be the PQ vote that went to the CAQ.

The Conservatives finished 7th in Argenteuil as well. lololol


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 11, 2012, 10:30:51 PM

I think it's run by a former Tory MP of Quebec City. Daniel Petit (Charlesbourg)?

EDIT: No, Luc Harvey (Louis-Hébert), through Petit sits on the executive.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 11, 2012, 10:34:32 PM
So, the Liberals took a 16 point hit in both ridings. That would imply that they are actually at 26% province wide.

The PQ change in both ridings were minor, a slight increase in Argenteuil, and a slight dip on LaFontaine.

CAQ gained 9-10% from the ADQ's mark in 2008. That would imply they are actually at where the Liberals are across the province, at 26%. Maybe not so bad news?

QS saw minor gains in both ridings.


I think it's run by a former Tory MP of Quebec City. Daniel Petit (Charlesbourg)?

EDIT: No, Luc Harvey (Louis-Hébert), through Petit sits on the executive.

I think he was being facetious.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 11, 2012, 10:38:35 PM
Media is reporting than Liberals are now at 63 seats, which is a very very thin majority.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 11, 2012, 10:40:44 PM
Media is reporting than Liberals are now at 63 seats, which is a very very thin majority.

The thinnest possible, not seen since the last Unionist hurrah over 4 decades ago. :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: 2952-0-0 on June 14, 2012, 10:54:17 PM
SCC will be hearing about Etobicoke Centre in July. If Opitz and Harper are convinced of their mandate to the public, they shouldn't fear and delay the by-election. After all, they'll get re-elected by a wider margin, right?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/supreme-court-to-interrupt-summer-break-to-hear-tossed-election-case/article4265075


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 20, 2012, 03:09:36 AM
For the coming by-election in Rothesay:

()

Liberals were close of winning some polls in the west of the riding.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 20, 2012, 08:40:08 AM
Thanks, Max. I was going to make one myself, but I'll use yours. I know the Blunt Objects blog also made one...

What I will do is make a map showing the NDP strength in the area from the 2011 federal election.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on June 20, 2012, 11:51:24 AM
I think the NDP will shock everyone and win the Rothesay byelection. You heard it here.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 20, 2012, 12:07:29 PM
I think the NDP will shock everyone and win the Rothesay byelection. You heard it here.

I don't think they'll win, but getting 40% is not out of the realm of possibility.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on June 20, 2012, 12:13:35 PM
I think the NDP will shock everyone and win the Rothesay byelection. You heard it here.

I don't think they'll win, but getting 40% is not out of the realm of possibility.

I am really hoping that the NDP does win this, do we have a history of leaders running and not winning seats in by-elections? specifically in NB?... i remember in the late 90's (early 00's?) the NSNDP leader helen Macdonald (i think) lost a Cape Breton by-election... then it felt like she promptly resigned. Now we all know how things have turned out since :)
There was mention that the Alward tories are still popular, and this being a tory seat they have the advantage for sure. Any idea from the ground if the NDP or the tories or even the LIberals have momentum and can win?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on June 20, 2012, 12:29:34 PM
I think the NDP will shock everyone and win the Rothesay byelection. You heard it here.

I don't think they'll win, but getting 40% is not out of the realm of possibility.

Rothesay is a pretty competitive three-way race, if anyone gets 40% of the vote - they win for sure. In fact, I would bet money that whoever wins will win with LESS than 40% of the vote.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 20, 2012, 02:22:35 PM
NDP had pretty good results in the western half of the riding, the problem is the east.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 20, 2012, 02:49:06 PM
I think the NDP will shock everyone and win the Rothesay byelection. You heard it here.

I don't think they'll win, but getting 40% is not out of the realm of possibility.

Rothesay is a pretty competitive three-way race, if anyone gets 40% of the vote - they win for sure. In fact, I would bet money that whoever wins will win with LESS than 40% of the vote.

I'm thinking the Liberals won't get a good result here, as most of their voters will go NDP.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 23, 2012, 11:48:02 PM
Toronto-Danforth by-election poll by poll results: http://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr_2012/poll_e.html



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 23, 2012, 11:56:18 PM
Liberals won 8 polls and tied another (up from being shut out in 2011). A few in Riverdale, East York and the Playfair Estates.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 24, 2012, 05:25:06 PM
Analyzing Rothesay: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/06/rothesay-new-brunswick-provincial-by.html


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on June 25, 2012, 08:01:32 AM
Analyzing Rothesay: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/06/rothesay-new-brunswick-provincial-by.html

Great analysis; i am still dreamy-eyed in my hopes that Cardy can win (given the new found attention the riding could have with a party leader, i know i lived in Jacks riding from the moment he was elected till he pased RIP). BUT i think your probably right; demographically its just not there for the NDP... if this were BC or NS, and if the tories were less popular then they are now, possibly a protest vote would push Cardy over. But NB has never been solid for the NDP; the SJ area has been the only place to see a provincial NDP member in recent history, and maybe its Cardys ploy to play to a new constituency but without sitting members there on the sidelines.
If the NDP gets anywhere over 30% is this going to be seen as a "moral" victory... if the Liberals do as bad as were suggesting; could this not help the NDP in its building?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 25, 2012, 09:56:24 PM
Yikes! Cardy finishes third. The Liberals actually increased their vote (how!?)

Ted Flemming (PC)   1625    38.26    -18.31
John Wilcox (Lib)            1328    31.27    +2.87
Dominic Cardy (NDP)    1158    27.27    +18.30
Sharon Murphy (Grn)   69    1.62            -4.43
Marjorie MacMurray (I)   62    1.46    

The NDP got about what they did in the federal election, meaning there is a cap at how much support they can get. Looks like while there was legitimate anger at the Tories, some of that went to the Liberals, who did not bleed their support to the NDP like predicted.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on June 26, 2012, 12:26:34 AM
The day the byelection was called if you had said the NDP would win almost 28% of the vote and triple its % of the vote in Rothesay - people would have said you were crazy. Of the 55 ridings in New Brunswick this one is just about #55 in winnability for the NDP - so I think that while some people might have gotten a bit carried away about Cardy's chances - in the end he achieved his inititial objective which was to greatly increase the popular vote and raise his profile with the media across the province - which he did.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 26, 2012, 01:13:49 AM
While it's a "good" result, it's only 1% more than we got there federally.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on June 26, 2012, 01:53:06 AM
Federally the NDP took 29% of the vote in NB last year...if they managed to repeat that performance and get 29% or 30% in the 2014 provincial election it would probably means about 9 or 10 seats in the NB legislature...nothing to sneer at. In Sept. 2010 the NB NDP took 10% of the vote. In May 2011 the federal NDP took 29% in NB - if the provincial NDP can get anywhere near the level of support the federal party had - it would be a success beyond anyone's wildest dreams.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on June 26, 2012, 05:58:30 AM
... it's a Conservative suburban district in New Brunswick. Why were you all cheering for an NDP win?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 26, 2012, 06:00:34 AM
Sugar


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on June 26, 2012, 07:26:04 AM
... it's a Conservative suburban district in New Brunswick. Why were you all cheering for an NDP win?

Because i don't necessarily think all rich/and or suburabanites are conservatives; and if we put in the resources and do the ground work... they can be winable. Look at the results the NDP clearly is the party with momentum growing its vote almost 20% with a candidate who is not from the community, albeit the leader but still this is NB, and this is a good result.
Is the NBL that embedded in the province? NB feels like NS in the 80s-90s the two old parties just trading places and the NDP just nowhere... But this is a good result, not sure what the NBNDPs plan is but in this province, i think strategic concentration of resources is the only way to win.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 26, 2012, 09:19:06 AM
Federally the NDP took 29% of the vote in NB last year...if they managed to repeat that performance and get 29% or 30% in the 2014 provincial election it would probably means about 9 or 10 seats in the NB legislature...nothing to sneer at. In Sept. 2010 the NB NDP took 10% of the vote. In May 2011 the federal NDP took 29% in NB - if the provincial NDP can get anywhere near the level of support the federal party had - it would be a success beyond anyone's wildest dreams.

If only Cardy could run in every riding. In the federal election, it was as if Jack was running in every election.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on June 26, 2012, 10:24:37 AM
Cardy is a competent leader, but according to the polls he is still relatively unknown and does not run ahead of the party in popularity. This was actually the first time in his life that he had run for public office. He is not (at least not yet) the Jack Layton of New Brunswick...he is more comparable to Alexa MacDonough in the early 1980s - competent, still unknown to 95% of the population etc...Let's also keep in mind that this byelection was called very very fast - literally within a week of the seat becoming vacant. The number of NDP members in Rothesay could literally be counted on one hand and a campaign had to be built from scratch - the PC and Libs on the other hand have long, long histories of being competitive there and have organizational machines that totally dwarf anything the NDP can put in place on such short notice.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 26, 2012, 10:58:29 AM
It's a good result, but you have to admit you predicted a win. Even I predicted ~40%. So, he didn't do as well as we thought.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 26, 2012, 03:57:19 PM
Well, to me, it looks like a very good result for that kind of area for provincial NDP.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on June 26, 2012, 07:07:25 PM
It's a respectable showing. The only problem is that it was the leader running, so the numbers were inflated a tad.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on June 26, 2012, 08:03:04 PM
I guess this'd be like Brian Topp running in Etobicoke Centre...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 26, 2012, 08:13:43 PM
Now there's an amusing mental picture for anyone who can't quite disassociate that particular name from Spaced... ;D


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 29, 2012, 05:33:27 PM
I'll draw a map of Argenteuil results.
However, I can't draw a map of LaFontaine, as the number of precincts changed (141 in 2008, 132 in 2012).

No problem with Argenteuil, which kept its 149 precincts.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 29, 2012, 05:44:58 PM
Sounds good. Has McGuinty set a date for Kitchener-Waterloo yet?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: pugbug on June 29, 2012, 07:30:05 PM
Cardy is a competent leader, but according to the polls he is still relatively unknown and does not run ahead of the party in popularity. This was actually the first time in his life that he had run for public office. He is not (at least not yet) the Jack Layton of New Brunswick...he is more comparable to Alexa MacDonough in the early 1980s - competent, still unknown to 95% of the population etc...Let's also keep in mind that this byelection was called very very fast - literally within a week of the seat becoming vacant. The number of NDP members in Rothesay could literally be counted on one hand and a campaign had to be built from scratch - the PC and Libs on the other hand have long, long histories of being competitive there and have organizational machines that totally dwarf anything the NDP can put in place on such short notice.

Oh wow, I didn't know all that, but now that I do, it really seems as if he would have done a lot better if he had had more time. I'm not sure if there's a statistic out there about how often elections are won by first time candidates, but it can't be too high a number. His name is out there now, and whatever the next provincial election or by-election brings, he'll probably be the first NDP MLA elected in quite a few years.

On a side note, I'd like to point out what an awesome post that was by Hatman on his blog. That's my boyfriend, everybody, and he makes me so proud!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 29, 2012, 11:11:24 PM
()
()

That map proves than the media analysis than CAQ only ate Liberal vote is wrong.
We can see than PQ had significant progress in Lachute and the Liberal areas, but has significant decline in Saint-Colomban and Saint-Adolphe-d'Howard.

The decline in suburbs is explained by the return of the ADQ-CAQ, but the gains in more regional areas of PQ aren't evident. Backlash over Liberal corruption scandal? I doubt the student crisis has an effect there, as I don't imagine people there opposing scolarity hikes.

The result in Saint-Colomban was awful, they did 13% there. So, we can suppose than the PQ-CAQ split couldn't even cause Liberal gains in suburbs?

CAQ won 7 precincts (4 in Saint-Colomban, 1 in Morin Heights, 1 in Mille-Isles and 1 in Lac-des-Seize-Îles) and tied one with PQ in Brownsburg-Chatham (which isn't anymore as anglophone than the name imply).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 29, 2012, 11:50:01 PM
looks like CAQ ate into both parties.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on June 30, 2012, 04:13:44 AM
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/28/nb-rothesay-byelection-results-222.html (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/28/nb-rothesay-byelection-results-222.html)

CBC is being competent and did a precinct map and an analysis of the Rothesay by-election!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 30, 2012, 09:16:16 AM
CBC New Brunswick did a lot of poll maps for the municipal elections, so this doesn't surprise me.

I can defenitely see a correlation between the NDP 2011 results in the riding and Cardy's numbers. while the share of the vote was similar, Cardy won more polls because of the vote split.

Here is the 2011 NDP map for those who didn't get a chance to read my blog

()


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 03, 2012, 10:41:19 PM
Durham becomes vacant with Bev Oda's resignation effective July 31.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1221037--analysis-bev-oda-goes-away-quietly-true-to-form-in-harper-s-ottawa


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 04, 2012, 05:04:26 AM
Bourque reporting that Erin O'Toole, a Heenan lawyer, is being tipped to win the Tory nomination in the impending Durham by-election. No confirmation or link yet.



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on July 04, 2012, 05:22:41 AM
Oh, as if we need another corporate sellout from them...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 04, 2012, 06:22:38 AM
Related to MPP John O'Toole, I presume?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on July 04, 2012, 06:24:05 AM
The NDP needs a good candidate here. With no chance of winning in Calgary-Centre or coming in second place in Etobicoke-Centre, there is a good chance of a respectable showing in Durham. Probably not a win, but a good showing might help momentum.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 04, 2012, 06:38:21 AM
Adma: His son.

More on candidate selection.

http://www.durhamregion.com/news/article/1387028--scramble-begins-in-durham-riding-to-replace-bev-oda


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 04, 2012, 08:29:47 AM
Only way for the NDP to win is a strong Liberal Party showing, and coming up the middle a la 1990. Not going to happen. Plus, the area is not like it used to be... when was the last time Oshawa went NDP?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 04, 2012, 08:34:20 AM
The NDP will run the same candidate as in 11... by the sounds of it? the page is still up and looks like its still being updated?

GM workers, CAW gal, environmentalist... single mother, sounds like Andrea Horwath sans the Line worker :P

http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Tammy-Schoep-Federal-NDP-Candidate-for-Durham-Riding/338572158128

The last time the NDP won Any Durham riding must have been 1990?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 04, 2012, 08:48:52 AM
Only way for the NDP to win is a strong Liberal Party showing, and coming up the middle a la 1990. Not going to happen. Plus, the area is not like it used to be... when was the last time Oshawa went NDP?

When Broadbent had it? :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 04, 2012, 09:05:08 AM
Only way for the NDP to win is a strong Liberal Party showing, and coming up the middle a la 1990. Not going to happen. Plus, the area is not like it used to be... when was the last time Oshawa went NDP?

When Broadbent had it? :P

Well Michael Breaugh held it till 93 (replaced Bradbent in 90); and Prov. Allan Pilkey held it till 95 (one of 12 to vote against Bill 167, which is one of the reasons why we lost the riding in 95!).
In 90's the NDP held all 4 Durham ridings (prov.)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 04, 2012, 12:35:59 PM
Yeah, the last time the NDP won Oshawa federally or provincially was 1990. Wow! Same year the rest of Durham went NDP. Weirdness. Of course the margins were different. We got over 60% of the vote in Oshawa, and the other Durham seats were won with around 35%. Breaugh won the seat in a 1990 by-election with 48%. He then lost it in 1993 with only 15%. The closest we've come since was Sid Ryan back in 2004 when he lost by 500 votes. The collapse of the Liberals in 2011 really helped the Tories who actually increased the margin of victory over the NDP. Looks like the NDP can't break 40% in the riding, and need a strong Liberal candidate to have a shot at winning.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 04, 2012, 01:23:33 PM
Yeah, the last time the NDP won Oshawa federally or provincially was 1990. Wow! Same year the rest of Durham went NDP. Weirdness. Of course the margins were different. We got over 60% of the vote in Oshawa, and the other Durham seats were won with around 35%. Breaugh won the seat in a 1990 by-election with 48%. He then lost it in 1993 with only 15%. The closest we've come since was Sid Ryan back in 2004 when he lost by 500 votes. The collapse of the Liberals in 2011 really helped the Tories who actually increased the margin of victory over the NDP. Looks like the NDP can't break 40% in the riding, and need a strong Liberal candidate to have a shot at winning.

I think the same will be true in quite a few ridings actually... for the NDP to win, the Liberals need to be what, above 25% provincewide? any lower and the tories keep the seats they have in the GTA...

Has me wondering, Does the NDP have really no chance in Calgary Centre? What would be a good-momentum showing? 20+?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 04, 2012, 02:24:03 PM
No chance in Calgary Centre. You might be able to gerrymander a Tory-minority seat in Calgary (something similar to the old Calgary Centre riding that Joe Clark won), but it's not going NDP as is. Even if Joe Clark himself ran for the NDP, he would not win. (btw, he has said some pro Mulcair things recently :) )

Speaking of which- quiz time: what former federal Tory cabinet minister is a current NDP supporter?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on July 04, 2012, 06:31:45 PM
David McDonald - who went from being a PC cabinet minister to being Alexa MacDonough's boyfriend?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on July 04, 2012, 06:38:43 PM
I don't think we should even talk about Oshawa in the same breath as Durham. While the NDP has not won Oshawa since 1990 - it has had a popular vote there way above the Ontario average in every election. Durham is more of a dead zone - though in addition to winning there in 1990, the ONDP also won Durham East in 1975!

I don't think its as simple as saying that for the NDP to win Oshawa the Liberals need to be stronger. It depends on HOW they are stronger. I don't think it would help the NDP at all in Oshawa if the Liberals ran some really progressive left-liberal who gained ground by cutting into the NDP vote!!

Quite frankly, i think the reason the NDP keeps hitting the ceiling in Oshawa is that they keep running a succession of "old NDP" candidates who appeal to the CAW crowd but are not all all attractive to all the middle class suburbanistes in Oshawa who do NOT work for GM and who might be open to the NDP if the candidate wasn't always such a throwback to another era. As long as the NDP keeps running people like Sid Ryan and a succession of CAW local presidents they will keep hitting that ceiling. Maybe in 2015 they will find a candidate who the auto workers like but who also has some appeal to the suburban commuters who live in Oshawa who might want a progressive alternative to harper and Co.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 04, 2012, 08:14:43 PM
Quite frankly, i think the reason the NDP keeps hitting the ceiling in Oshawa is that they keep running a succession of "old NDP" candidates who appeal to the CAW crowd but are not all all attractive to all the middle class suburbanistes in Oshawa who do NOT work for GM and who might be open to the NDP if the candidate wasn't always such a throwback to another era. As long as the NDP keeps running people like Sid Ryan and a succession of CAW local presidents they will keep hitting that ceiling. Maybe in 2015 they will find a candidate who the auto workers like but who also has some appeal to the suburban commuters who live in Oshawa who might want a progressive alternative to harper and Co.

And plus, let's face it, Harper + Co. have been attractive to locals, esp. w/seat incombency,  It isn't just a matter of "progressive alternative"; it's a matter of giving voters a concrete excuse to reject the Conservatives.  And in Ontario in 2011, Laytonmania wasn't enough of an excuse to eject a Con-incumbent.

However, now there is a good excuse for Ontarioans to reject the incumbent Conservatives--majority hubris.  (Obvious case in point: Bev Oda.)  And any upset potential for the NDP would be more out of populism than progressivism--the same populism that led a lot of those 1990 Rae-NDP voters to vote federally Reform three years later.

It's also worth noting that a lot of 2011's best NDP polls in Durham actually happened to be in newer subdivisions, in places like Bowmanville's outer reaches--maybe reflective of Layton's appeal to the kinds of younger demographics that set up their first home here...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 04, 2012, 09:55:04 PM
David McDonald - who went from being a PC cabinet minister to being Alexa MacDonough's boyfriend?

I was thinking of another McDonald.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 04, 2012, 09:58:52 PM
I don't think we should even talk about Oshawa in the same breath as Durham. While the NDP has not won Oshawa since 1990 - it has had a popular vote there way above the Ontario average in every election. Durham is more of a dead zone - though in addition to winning there in 1990, the ONDP also won Durham East in 1975!

I don't think its as simple as saying that for the NDP to win Oshawa the Liberals need to be stronger. It depends on HOW they are stronger. I don't think it would help the NDP at all in Oshawa if the Liberals ran some really progressive left-liberal who gained ground by cutting into the NDP vote!!

Quite frankly, i think the reason the NDP keeps hitting the ceiling in Oshawa is that they keep running a succession of "old NDP" candidates who appeal to the CAW crowd but are not all all attractive to all the middle class suburbanistes in Oshawa who do NOT work for GM and who might be open to the NDP if the candidate wasn't always such a throwback to another era. As long as the NDP keeps running people like Sid Ryan and a succession of CAW local presidents they will keep hitting that ceiling. Maybe in 2015 they will find a candidate who the auto workers like but who also has some appeal to the suburban commuters who live in Oshawa who might want a progressive alternative to harper and Co.

You're right, the NDP keeps running duds in Oshawa, but who do you think holds all the NDP memberships in Oshawa? CAW folk. The NDP would win the seat with someone new, but unless Mulcair swoops in and appoints someone, it's not going to happen.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on July 04, 2012, 11:40:41 PM
Mulcair does not have the power to "swoop in and appoint" anyone in Oshawa and even though the bulk of NDP members in Oshawa may be with the CAW doesn't mean that the candidate has to be an old fashioned union leader. Back in 1968 all those auto workers in Oshawa chose as their federal candidate a political philosophy professor from York University with a passion for John Stewart Mill. His name was Ed Broadbent!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 05, 2012, 01:23:41 AM
Mulcair does not have the power to "swoop in and appoint" anyone in Oshawa and even though the bulk of NDP members in Oshawa may be with the CAW doesn't mean that the candidate has to be an old fashioned union leader. Back in 1968 all those auto workers in Oshawa chose as their federal candidate a political philosophy professor from York University with a passion for John Stewart Mill. His name was Ed Broadbent!

What are the chances of that happening again?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 05, 2012, 07:53:49 AM
Thats what i was thinking, is that in order to truely look to win we have to get out of our comfort zone (as Dippers).
Does anyone know if say someone on Oshawa council, or Durham regional gov who is a dipper who could run? (Nester Pidwerbecki is the one i looked up and found, hes on oshawa council or Larry O'Connor who is Mayor of Brock, frm regional councillor and former MPP in Durham) ... or someone like Jim Standford, an economist with the CAW but not seen as a typical CAW union pres.
 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on July 05, 2012, 07:56:35 AM
If there's much in the way of a swing from the Tories to the NDP next time round, then you'd win Oshawa anyway, probably. Even with a standard awful candidate, maybe even with the Irish prick (though that's obviously not worth the risk).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on July 05, 2012, 12:00:44 PM
Keep in mind that redistribution could also have a big impact on Oshawa. Ontario gains 15 seats and there is a lot of growth in Durham region. The NDP tends to do well in the older "downtown" parts of Oshawa and less well in the more outlying suburban areas. Its quite possible that a new riding will be created east of Toronto and that the current riding of Oshawa may shrink in size and give up some of the more Tory-leaning territory.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 05, 2012, 12:12:12 PM
Keep in mind that redistribution could also have a big impact on Oshawa. Ontario gains 15 seats and there is a lot of growth in Durham region. The NDP tends to do well in the older "downtown" parts of Oshawa and less well in the more outlying suburban areas. Its quite possible that a new riding will be created east of Toronto and that the current riding of Oshawa may shrink in size and give up some of the more Tory-leaning territory.

Bingo! and in that case mr firebrand irishman could win a newer, smaller Oshawa (would we want him to?) think Pat Matin x10 and 10x leftier :P

There is no question, the GTA will be the biggest winner (Peel, Halton, York, Durham will see the most changes, some could be drastic if they decide to roll that way)...

A friend has  a blog (who doesn't) and has a write-up about Durham:
http://kaylehatt.ca/6-reasons-why-a-durham-by-election-might-not-be-a-conservative-sure-thing/


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: canadian1 on July 05, 2012, 08:52:33 PM
Even if the riding boundaries were changed, Sid Ryan would be a poor choice of candidate for Oshawa. Even in the "downtown", there has been so much gentrification that his heavily rhetorical style of politics is liable to seem outdated. I do think that there is a difference in the amount of populism Ontarians like to see in federal vs. provincial politics: Ryan may still be a viable candidate provincially, as he was in 2007.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 05, 2012, 09:09:33 PM
Except that we're not talking about Sid Ryan-or-whomever per se.  We're talking about present-day (that is, 2012, not 2011) Harper vs Mulcair--which may be enough to override any tired-union-hack stigma...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on July 06, 2012, 11:01:42 AM
I suspect that Sid Ryan will be steering clear of federal politics for the next while anyways. He said some very nasty things about Mulcair in the NDP leadership race and the fact that Ryan is such an anti-Israel fanatic would probably make him persona non grata with the Mulcair team.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on July 06, 2012, 03:13:09 PM
I think the NDP's support in the core areas of Oshawa have been overstated by some of the posters here (just by eyeballing the data, it appears they lost by a sizeable margin in a hypothetical core seat). It's not the early 90s and even with the "orange crush", they were only able to increase support in most polls by 1-3%. That doesn't bode well for the next election. I think the clearest example of the continued erosion of NDP support was shown in the provincial election.  They achieved a swing that was less than the provincial swing even while they ran on a platform that was basically tailored for Oshawa.

If NDP wins the next election, they'll most likely pick it up but I have the feeling it will be by a thread. Mulcair isn't veering from the Layton coalition and, if anything, is moving the party even further in a direction that appeals more to centrist/vaguely "green" urban voters. 

Quick question for Canadian posters: do you think that the NDP needs the Liberals to stay at their current levels of support to win a solid majority in the next election? Also, do you think it's possible for the NDP to appeal successfully to middle class Asians in the 905?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on July 06, 2012, 04:52:54 PM
Well, I think it's possible for them to appeal to the 905, but the Cons and Liberals are more appealing at first glance? If they can't win them, they need to Liberals to eat at Conservative support there to keep both parties seat totals at a minimum in the region - maybe even pick up a few.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on July 06, 2012, 06:15:55 PM
Well, I think it's possible for them to appeal to the 905, but the Cons and Liberals are more appealing at first glance? If they can't win them, they need to Liberals to eat at Conservative support there to keep both parties seat totals at a minimum in the region - maybe even pick up a few.

A lot of people who vote Liberal in "905" only do so because the Liberals have historically been the only party that could compete with the Tories. Many if not most Liberal voters in 905 would drop the Liberals like a hot potato for the NDP if they saw the NDP as having a shot at winning. We got a taste of that phenomenon when the ONDP won Bramalea-Gore-Malton


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 06, 2012, 08:31:02 PM
I think the NDP's support in the core areas of Oshawa have been overstated by some of the posters here (just by eyeballing the data, it appears they lost by a sizeable margin in a hypothetical core seat). It's not the early 90s and even with the "orange crush", they were only able to increase support in most polls by 1-3%. That doesn't bode well for the next election. I think the clearest example of the continued erosion of NDP support was shown in the provincial election.  They achieved a swing that was less than the provincial swing even while they ran on a platform that was basically tailored for Oshawa.

It's not necessarily that dire--and besides, that "only" 1-3%-increased-support was by default of the NDP already having competitive strength here, i.e. they were already in a 2011-esque position in 2008, 2006, 2004.  The bigger NDP jumps in support were dead-cat-bounces in neighbouring ridings where the party was hitherto a writeoff.

If anything's being overstated here, it's the forever-uniform nature of the Conservative vote--but then again, it's also worth observing that against the Laytonmania grain, there was a rather noticeable NDP-to-Tory swing in a lot of the hitherto most heavily blue-collar NDP-leaning polls in places like Hamilton and Windsor; and of a sort that's not merely explainable through Liberal collapse--it's almost as if the NDP had already maxed out in those polls and the Tories repatriated a lot of "Reagan Democrat" apparently-NDP-populist types who once might've supported Reform.  Perhaps a bit of that was in effect in Oshawa as well.

But that was 2011.  This is 2012.  What may be hurting the Tories now is "majority hubris"; and Bev Oda's an A-1 emblem of that--and, look at it this way, if in this Durham byelection, the Cons are significantly below 50% and the NDP significantly above 30% (heck, just plain being above 30% might as well be "significant"), that'd probably foretell an NDP victory in Oshawa proper...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 06, 2012, 09:47:29 PM
Reagan New Democrat? lol


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on July 06, 2012, 10:49:59 PM
In Toronto I call them "Ford New Democrats" - people who voted for Rob Ford for mayor and then turned around and voted NDP federally.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 06, 2012, 11:20:22 PM
In Toronto I call them "Ford New Democrats" - people who voted for Rob Ford for mayor and then turned around and voted NDP federally.

Yes, I've been thinking about this recently. There must be quite a few of those people, especially in places like Scarborough. I would think a lot of them are immigrants, no?

I can't wrap my head around the logic of voting both NDP and for Rob Ford. Well, I can't wrap my head around voting for Rob Ford in the first place. I dont know how someone to the right of the federal Tories could become mayor of that city.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on July 07, 2012, 02:21:08 AM
In Toronto I call them "Ford New Democrats" - people who voted for Rob Ford for mayor and then turned around and voted NDP federally.

Yes, I've been thinking about this recently. There must be quite a few of those people, especially in places like Scarborough. I would think a lot of them are immigrants, no?

I can't wrap my head around the logic of voting both NDP and for Rob Ford. Well, I can't wrap my head around voting for Rob Ford in the first place. I dont know how someone to the right of the federal Tories could become mayor of that city.

It does seem a bit strange, although I remember hearing many in the immigrant community voted for Ford because Smitherman was Gay and a lot in the immigrant community are economically left of centre but socially conservative.  It may not make a lot of sense, but it is the best explanation I have.  The other possibility is some are just angry at the way things are so whomever is the most anti status quo gets their vote regardless of ideology.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on July 07, 2012, 05:39:46 AM
Of course if you were an NDP voting immigrant who objected to Smitherman for being gay, it begs the question why not Joe Pantalone? He is str8 was backed by Miller and Layton etc...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 07, 2012, 07:53:15 AM
After I posted that, I realized it was the gay issue. Still kind of weird considering the NDP's stance on gays. The 2010 Toronto election was almost the same as the 2006 Ottawa election where a bumbling right wing buffoon got elected over a more competent, but gay candidate. (of course our gay candidate was so much better than Smitherman). And I hate to say it, but Rob Ford is slightly more competent than our mayor was. However, Ford is more right wing. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 07, 2012, 05:46:22 PM
And I hate to say it, but Rob Ford is slightly more competent than our mayor was. However, Ford is more right wing. 

*More* competent?  Didn't realize O'Brien was *that* bad--either that, or you haven't been at the heart of the Toronto scene.

But there's also something of a difference btw/the Toronto and Oshawa situations--that is, Oshawa isn't that immigrant-y or non-white-y, it really is closer to the old-school "Reform" demographic.  Indeed, remember that Layton's more marked 2011 gains tended to be in ethnoburbia (witness Scarborough, BGM, etc); while, as I've indicated, the NDP didn't gain all that much or even fell back on behalf of the Tories in their traditional Broadbentian lunchbucket-labour union zones.

And another thing about Oshawa is that unlike other blue-collar NDP nodes like Hamilton and WIndsor, it does not have much of a base of Copps/Munro/Herb Gray "Lib-Lab" strength; Ivan Grose won here in the Chretien era largely upon coattails, and versus a Reform/Alliance base that saw this as one of their more competitive Ontario prospects.  Other than the Grose interregnum, this is that ultimate Ontario odd-duck: historically, a true Con-NDP marginal--or if not that, if one were to extend today's dismissiveness t/w the NDP to the past, Broadbent was as much of a fluke as Grose was.  And to go crudely by Chretien-era "united right" tallies, the Conservatives ought to have scored this by more than a 3-way margin fluke in '04--but it's pretty much explained by the Cons having gained this at all in '04 that Colin Carrie has warded off all wouldbe NDP competition since.  And a lot of the reasoning here is as "external" (i.e. safety with Harper) as it was with Grose (i.e. safety with Chretien).  In a seat where regardless of NDP positioning, the Tories have traditionally had an upper hand over the Liberals--the Tories benefit.  (It also explains why Jerry Ouellette has held tight provincially: once they nab the ring in a weak-Liberal circumstance, they hold tight.)

But now, w/the unprecedented situation of the NDP in Official Opposition (and actually proving its mettle there), the circumstances have changed.  Which is why NDP prospects in *Durham* are deemed worth discussion, never mind Oshawa...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 07, 2012, 06:00:15 PM
And I hate to say it, but Rob Ford is slightly more competent than our mayor was. However, Ford is more right wing. 

*More* competent?  Didn't realize O'Brien was *that* bad--either that, or you haven't been at the heart of the Toronto scene.



Maybe not, but I couldn't imagine anyone more incompetent than O'Brien. He was a lot like George W. Bush. And boy, when Bush came to down, you should have seen how giddy OBrien was. He was like a hero to him.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 07, 2012, 10:08:53 PM
Maybe not, but I couldn't imagine anyone more incompetent than O'Brien. He was a lot like George W. Bush. And boy, when Bush came to down, you should have seen how giddy OBrien was. He was like a hero to him.

If you're just using a Dubyah barometer of incompetence: believe you me, Rob Ford's worse (though it'd more likely be his brother Doug who'd have that O'Brien giddiness).

I'll spare you the details--but once you Google up and consider Rob Ford's gaffes-on-record, O'Brien practically comes across Mel Lastmanish by comparison...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 07, 2012, 10:18:07 PM
Incidentally, I've divided Durham's 2011 e-day results into geographic sectors, with these quick-and-possibly-mildly-inaccurate results...

uxbridge rural--: Con 2149 (58.75), Lib 692 (18.92), NDP 533 (14.57), GP 253 (6.92), Ltn 19 (.52), CHP 12 (.33)
uxbridge urban--:  Con 2456 (53.39), Lib 1036 (22.52), NDP 738 (16.04), GP 342 (7.43), CHP 19 (.41), Ltn 9 (.20)
scugog w rural--  Con 1411 (58.35), Lib 434 (17.95), NDP 390 (16.13), GP 158 (6.53), CHP 17 (.70). Ltn 8 (.33)
pt perry--  Con 1896 (53.64), Lib 750 (21.22), NDP 652 (18.44), GP 206 (5.83), CHP 22 (.62), Ltn 9 (.25)
scugog e rural--  Con 1691 (57.17), NDP 633 (21.40), Lib 404 (13.66), GP 204 (6.90), CHP 21 (.71), Ltn 5 (.17)
darlington rural--  Con 2183 (58.23), NDP 775 (20.67), Lib 537 (14.32), GP 189 (5.04), CHP 52 (1.39), Ltn 13 (.35)
courtice--  Con 4436 (52.35), NDP 2280 (26.91), Lib 1293 (15.26), GP 386 (4.56), CHP 52 (.61), Ltn 27 (.32)
bowmanville--  Con 6560 (51.85), NDP 3454 (27.30), Lib 1897 (14.99), GP 589 (4.66), CHP 114 (.90), Ltn 39 (.31)
clarke rural--  Con 2369 (56.16), NDP 868 (20.58), Lib 677 (16.05), GP 215 (5.10), CHP 70 (1.66), Ltn 19 (.45)
newcastle--  Con 1464 (50.87), NDP 731 (25.40), Lib 506 (17.58), GP 147 (5.11), CHP 18 (.63), Ltn 12 (.42)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on July 08, 2012, 11:21:45 AM
No, I was there when Ford was elected, I don't think it was so much of a gay issue than it was just the fact that outer-Toronto was trending conservative at the time - just like, in 2011, quite a few ridings in Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough went Conservative. Downtown, the old city, voted en masse for Smitherman (and NDP/Lib federally in 2011). That trend seemingly has reversed, perhaps? Hard to say if it has, or if it's just backlash against Ford (and Harper, to an extent). The reversal happened pretty fast, if it did happen, because by October the city was more than ready to embrace the Liberals as the PC's only valid opposition in provincial parliament.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 08, 2012, 02:41:06 PM
No, I was there when Ford was elected, I don't think it was so much of a gay issue than it was just the fact that outer-Toronto was trending conservative at the time - just like, in 2011, quite a few ridings in Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough went Conservative.

Well, if one were to paint all Toryism with a common brush.  Look, if Dubyah-keister-kissing is all you can point to as evidence of O'Brien being "worse" than Ford (or maybe more properly, the double-headed monster that is Rob + Doug Ford), you haven't comprehended the fullness of Ford-style ineptitude.  (Indeed, that's been the problem with a lot of Ford's critics over time: that they've offered overly softball generic right-of-centre evil/buffoonery/thuggery comparisons--O'Brien, Mel Lastman, Dubyah, Boris Johnson, Mike Harris, etc...)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 08, 2012, 04:11:36 PM
No, I was there when Ford was elected, I don't think it was so much of a gay issue than it was just the fact that outer-Toronto was trending conservative at the time - just like, in 2011, quite a few ridings in Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough went Conservative.

Well, if one were to paint all Toryism with a common brush.  Look, if Dubyah-keister-kissing is all you can point to as evidence of O'Brien being "worse" than Ford (or maybe more properly, the double-headed monster that is Rob + Doug Ford), you haven't comprehended the fullness of Ford-style ineptitude.  (Indeed, that's been the problem with a lot of Ford's critics over time: that they've offered overly softball generic right-of-centre evil/buffoonery/thuggery comparisons--O'Brien, Mel Lastman, Dubyah, Boris Johnson, Mike Harris, etc...)

Note to Adma: Holmes and I are different people. (I have a light green avatar now :) ) But, there was more than just Dubya kiester kissing, there were huge gaffes as well. And of course the whole scandal that made him temporarily vacate the office to stand trial. AFAIK Ford hasn't had that happen yet.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 08, 2012, 09:09:22 PM
Sorry to disrupt the municipal politics talk (:P), but back OT Erin O'Toole will be launching his Durham bid tomorrow per Bourque.



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on July 08, 2012, 10:02:19 PM
Sorry to disrupt the municipal politics talk (:P), but back OT Erin O'Toole will be launching his Durham bid tomorrow per Bourque.



Bourque is a political blogger or analyst? I suppose you aren't talking about Geranium the First?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 08, 2012, 10:03:50 PM
Sorry to disrupt the municipal politics talk (:P), but back OT Erin O'Toole will be launching his Durham bid tomorrow per Bourque.



Bourque is a political blogger or analyst? I suppose you aren't talking about Geranium the First?

Pierre Bourque. This guy. I'd also use Kinsella but he isn't saying anything about this by-election.


http://bourque.com/


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 08, 2012, 10:09:32 PM
You could have easily segwayed from municipal politics to Bourque, as I believe he is a former city councillor here.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on July 08, 2012, 10:13:41 PM
Which Pierre Bourque? That Pierre Bourque (in Ottawa? Toronto?), or the former mayor of Montreal also named Pierre Bourque (1993-2001), nicknamed Geramium the First, as said in a previous post?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 08, 2012, 10:24:08 PM
The guy Hatman's talking about. Have you guys decided to rerun your 2011 candidate or not?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 08, 2012, 10:47:03 PM
The guy Hatman's talking about. Have you guys decided to rerun your 2011 candidate or not?

Uuuhh, kinda early dontchya think? By-election wont be until the Fall.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on July 08, 2012, 11:14:44 PM
The guy Hatman's talking about. Have you guys decided to rerun your 2011 candidate or not?

Uuuhh, kinda early dontchya think? By-election wont be until the Fall.

So?
In perfect conditions, the ground campaign should be ready to run the day after the writs are launched, no?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 09, 2012, 07:01:51 AM
I thought I read somewhere that she's running again--then again, there seem to be indications that the Liberal candidate may be running again, either.

In any case, this byelection may well be a litmus on whether Ontario's ConLib seats gone ConNDP are set to continue that pattern, or whether 2011 was a blip.  (Especially since 2011's Grit candidate ran a much more active and media-ballyhooed "anti-Oda" campaign--for him to finish 3rd vs a skeleton NDP candidate must have startled everyone in his camp and beyond)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 09, 2012, 07:52:33 AM
I posted that the NDP candidate from 11 still has an active Facebook page... but that could mean nothing, especially if somone wants to run and they push for a contested nomination. with the NDP where they are in the polls, i would expect a stronger candidate to step up (gah i hope).

Adma - great breakdown! looks like the NDP did best in the southern portion (newcastle, Bowmanville, along the 401, i think both towns are part of Clarington?)

I think its interesting, that even though the 90s are long ago, the same trends for battleground ridings are there for the NDP. Scarborough and eastern GTA where you see these ridings have gone to the gov't not all at once, but usually in the end they will with a few exceptions. Someone mentioned immigrant and white-cdn born middle-working class will trend towards the best able to win... and the one that isn't tarnished so (as the liberals are now). Many of these areas the NDP didn't invest the time and got a huge bump in 11... now if the investments made in ground work/candidates i think that can help... but three more years of the tories in this state which looks to be a gradual slow decline could help.

On the Ford NDs... its odd, but i think a lot of that was some pendulum swing after two terms of David Miller... i liked the guy but he was getting trashed in the media to some degree and Ford for all his proven failings as mayor was a good councillor.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 09, 2012, 08:57:41 AM
Ford was good representing his constituents, but was/is terrible representing Toronto. Anyways...

Using Adma's data here are the numbers for the four municipalities.
I'm assuming Adma didn't include advance polls, so I added those in as well.

Uxbridge:
Cons 5699 (56.1)
Lib 2213 (21.8)
NDP 1451 (14.3)
Grn 719 (7.1)
Oth 76 (0.7)

Scugog:
Cons 6051 (56.2)
Lib 2071 (19.2)
NDP 1885 (17.5)
Grn 665 (6.2)
Oth 90 (0.8)

(The NDP had more E-Day votes, but the Liberals finished 2nd due to advance polls)

Clarington
Cons 19628 (53.6)
NDP 8857 (24.2)
Lib 5922 (16.2)
Grn 1713 (4.7)
Oth 471 (1.3)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 09, 2012, 12:51:20 PM
2nd place map: ()


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 09, 2012, 01:19:19 PM
Toews might get his judgeship, but given what happened with Cabinet I'll believe that when I see it.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 09, 2012, 01:34:49 PM

Nice Map!... you could pretty easily just split that with a knife along the Uxbridge/Scugog border... Scugog being that mixed area where the liberals 2nd place lead bleeds into the NDP 2nd place lead.
Looks like neither the Lib or NDP will take this one lightly... where Calgary Centre might be a given and not sure how many resources will be put into it... but by-elections are different animals aint they.

I hear this is not the first time Toews has been offered a Judgeship... scary thought


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 09, 2012, 01:36:49 PM
If you take out Uxbridge, you get a better sized riding, so that's what might happen to this district after redistribution (plus perhaps a name change to Clarington-Scugog)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 09, 2012, 02:20:16 PM
... is that a proposal i hear? :P

I agree too, just depends on how many ridings York/Durham are due and how they get cut up... but Uxebridge seems much more "York" then "Durham" politically and maybe even demographically


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 09, 2012, 02:22:38 PM
Sure, it's a proposal. But, just for one riding ;)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 09, 2012, 02:28:50 PM
Sure, it's a proposal. But, just for one riding ;)
... tease :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 09, 2012, 02:42:55 PM
Actually, while that makes for a good riding size, it might not happen like that, because:

Pickering--Uxbridge works
Ajax on its own works;
But what to do about Whitby--Oshawa? A little too small for 3 ridings. You can throw in Scugog if you want, but that brakes up Durham (the riding).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 09, 2012, 02:48:22 PM
Here's another tease.

Windsor becomes 2 ridings
then Essex (or Essex West) is created combining LaSalle, Tecumseh, Amherstburg, Essex and Kingsville.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 09, 2012, 08:12:48 PM
Nice Map!... you could pretty easily just split that with a knife along the Uxbridge/Scugog border

Or more properly, along the old Ontario/Durham County border (which'd divide Scugog in half).

As far as redistribution goes, I could just as well see Scugog/Uxbridge combined with Brock/Georgina/E Gwillimbury/Whitchurch-Stouffville, or some such combo, i.e. totally divorced from PickAjWhitOshClar...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 10, 2012, 08:43:18 AM
A little off tangent, back to by-election talk, Etobicoke Centre is really heatin up with the Supreme court hearing the arguments today.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/canadas-voting-system-at-the-heart-of-etobicoke-elections-case/article4401938/


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 10, 2012, 10:46:22 PM
Re Durham: doing more litmus whittling-down, the following polls went more than 30% NDP: 84 (N  side Hwy 2 as it enters Clarington: ergo, practically Oshawa overspill); 90 (mid-north Courtice); 95 (straddling Hwy 2 thru much of Courtice; lotsa townhousey stuff); 101 (84's opposite gatepost-into-Clarington); 107 (mid-south Courtice); 113 (Regional Road 22's gateway from Oshawa); 114 (E edge of Courtice sprawl straddling Hwy 2); 116-2 (gateway into Bowmanville via Hwy 2; plus some new subdivision) 128/128-1 (new/newish Bowmanville SW subdivision); 130/136/137/138 (60s/70sish SW BV subdivision; I think Reform once did well here, may be wrong); 139/140/140-1/141-1 (far-NE BV new/recent subdivision); 146 (slightly further south version of the aforementioned; next to an ex-POW camp, believe it or not); 150 (NE of downtown BV; includes a "Trudeau Drive", believe it or not); 153/155/156/159/160 (straddling Hwy 2 through the bulk of BV's downtown core; then S on Liberty St; much traditional NDP turf, including postwar CMHC housing); 179 (mid-subdivision SW of Newcastle's core); 183/184/186 (the entire urban-suburban NE of Newcastle); 500 (senior's poll won by the NDP; the only non-Tory poll in the seat)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 10, 2012, 10:54:48 PM
Interestingly, the Liberals won some polls in Durham in the provincial election

The Liberals won 3 polls in Newcastle, 2 in Pt Perry, 3 in Uxbridge, 1 in Bowmanville and 4 in Courtice (plus one tie)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: CalgaryManifesto on July 12, 2012, 12:44:52 AM
Have you done any work on Durham Earl? If there aren't any maps up yet, I can take a run at it this weekend.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 12, 2012, 12:50:09 AM
Just this:



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: CalgaryManifesto on July 12, 2012, 12:57:21 AM
I'll see if I have the Etobicoke and Durham data handy. I'm 5 posts away from links, so I should be able to start posting maps pretty quick here


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 12, 2012, 10:12:20 AM
So looks like the NDP has the highest profile candidate coming forward for the Kitchener-Waterloo by-election so far.

"Catherine Fife, trustee and chair of the Waterloo Region District School Board and president of the Ontario Public School Boards’ Association..."

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1225356--ontario-public-school-boards-association-catherine-fife-seeks-ndp-nomination

I hate this term but, Game changer? :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 12, 2012, 01:20:23 PM
Hmm I would be tempted to vote Tory in that by-election (only situation that I would vote "strategically", but if the NDP stands a chance at winning, then I would vote for her. Luckily I am not going to be forced to sell my soul.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 12, 2012, 01:33:58 PM
I don't believe in selling my soul... i voted Pants (Pantalone) when a lot of my progressive friends were going Smithy (Smitherman) last municipal to stop Ford... ya how that turn out for us.
I think Strategic voting is always a failure... its like a one night stand, you usually just hate yourself no matter what happens :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 12, 2012, 01:39:27 PM
I would have voted for Pantalone too. But that's different. As a social democrat, I saw Smitherman being not much better than Ford.  However in this case, I would vote strategically to help the NDP. Even if that means voting Tory. Liberal victory means the NDP loses all of their power. A Tory (or NDP) victory means the NDP holds a huge amount of power. Don't get me wrong, I loathe strategic voting, but this is probably the only justifiable time for it. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 12, 2012, 02:06:54 PM
I would have voted for Pantalone too. But that's different. As a social democrat, I saw Smitherman being not much better than Ford.  However in this case, I would vote strategically to help the NDP. Even if that means voting Tory. Liberal victory means the NDP loses all of their power. A Tory (or NDP) victory means the NDP holds a huge amount of power. Don't get me wrong, I loathe strategic voting, but this is probably the only justifiable time for it. 

Ahhh i see your point, the keep this a minority. Interesting point... i wonder if we will see PCs voting NDP with this announcement? the Tory Candidate (on paper, i don't know her) sounds weaker in terms of elected experience so... using your logic could they switch and vote NDP to keep the yet-to-be-named Liberal out?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 12, 2012, 02:43:47 PM
Maybe? But this minority government isn't giving the Tories much power, so, it's not as important to them. Although, keeping a minority government means an earlier provincial election, which is good for them.

BTW, the Liberals appear to have a contested nomination meeting. One of the candidates is a city councillor.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on July 12, 2012, 05:27:54 PM
ew I voted for Smitherman.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 12, 2012, 09:36:30 PM
Ahhh i see your point, the keep this a minority. Interesting point... i wonder if we will see PCs voting NDP with this announcement?

Or, more properly, Witmer voters--those who opted for the person rather than the party.  (Remember that federally, K-W hasn't been anything like the Conservative stronghold it is provincially.)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 12, 2012, 11:30:15 PM

:(


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on July 13, 2012, 06:08:43 AM

But also for Anthony Perruzza so I think that cancels out my one mistake. :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 13, 2012, 06:50:35 AM

But also for Anthony Perruzza so I think that cancels out my one mistake. :)

... Yes, yes it does :P
Ahhh yes i read that, and if Karen Scian the councillor wins the Liberal Nom, then its an all female cast. Whitmer was rather moderate no? more a Davis PCer? Interesting to see where the "personal whitmer vote" will  drift to. With recent provincial polling very bad for the liberals and well a "need to win" mentallity they probably have... its going to be a battle. I might even take some time to trek up there and volunteer for the NDP, i've got a number of old ONDY friend who are still there.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 13, 2012, 06:59:05 AM
It was an all-female (4 parties) cast in 2007, too, when Fife previously bore the NDP standard.  (Only getting into high teens; but that's with Witmer an incumbent, and when the strategic electoral climate generally didn't work in the NDP's favour, whatever the credentials of the candidate.)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 13, 2012, 08:02:32 AM
It was an all-female (4 parties) cast in 2007, too, when Fife previously bore the NDP standard.  (Only getting into high teens; but that's with Witmer an incumbent, and when the strategic electoral climate generally didn't work in the NDP's favour, whatever the credentials of the candidate.)
Good Catch, i thought she had run before but i just didn't look :P... to Fife's credit, she was the only candidate to make gains in 2007... picking up 6% while Whitmer (-2) and the Libs (-9)... your right, this year the situation is going to be much more favourable to the NDP


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 13, 2012, 09:51:00 PM
Well, the Greens made gains in 2007, too: don't forget.  (And it's also worth noting that she did better than her 2011 successor--or, for that matter, her 2011 federal counterpart.)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on July 15, 2012, 09:47:20 AM
I think an NDP win is a longshot here simply because in the past they haven't gotten over 25% in a long time.  Even in the last federal election they scored below the provincial average although I do wonder how many of the Liberal votes were from university staff and students who voted strategically as like many university ridings, it appears the Liberals held their vote better than elsewhere.  I agree without Witmer the Tories would have had a much tougher time winning this riding and in fact probably would have not won it in the past three elections, however with the Liberals provincially doing poorly, they may still hang on, especially if there is a strong three way split.  I think the Liberals would have had a better chance in a general election than by-election as one of the questions asked will be does McGuinty deserve a majority and some who want the Liberals to win, but only with a minority would vote Liberal in a general election but not by-election at least not when one considers this will give him a majority.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 15, 2012, 12:11:37 PM
I think an NDP win is a longshot here simply because in the past they haven't gotten over 25% in a long time.  Even in the last federal election they scored below the provincial average although I do wonder how many of the Liberal votes were from university staff and students who voted strategically as like many university ridings, it appears the Liberals held their vote better than elsewhere. 

You're overlooking the huuuuge, exceptional factor in K-W federally in 2011 that skewed everything: Andrew Telegdi--who ran practically (and in a way that anticipated the present Etobicoke Centre circumstance) as a Liberal-incumbent-cheated-through-recount, hogging all the "strategic left" energy and, in a way, forcing the NDP camp into a little-more-than-nominal effort.

Had Telegdi not run, and the NDP not shoved into the margins by the Telegdi factor, it would have been much different--and K-W isn't a hyper-strategic-Liberal-into-eternity Etobicoke Centre or Don Valley West circumstance, either...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on July 15, 2012, 12:53:17 PM
I should also note the NDP didn't do very well in Kitchener Centre either.  Cambridge is really the only area in the metro K-W area where they have a strong base.  While Telegdi no doubt helped, I should note that in both suburban Ottawa and Toronto you had several ridings without incumbents where the Liberals came in second.  Also it seems in most university area ridings the Liberals did quite well like Guelph, Kingston & the Islands (which lacked an incumbent), London North Centre, Kitchener-Waterloo and even in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, the Liberals were quite strong around McMaster University, they just did horrible everywhere else in the riding.  My understanding is Kitchener-Waterloo has above average income as well as more educated than most ridings and that is the demographic the Liberals are usually strongest amongst, otherwise too educated to vote Tory, but too wealthy to vote NDP.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 15, 2012, 06:43:14 PM
I should also note the NDP didn't do very well in Kitchener Centre either.  Cambridge is really the only area in the metro K-W area where they have a strong base.  While Telegdi no doubt helped, I should note that in both suburban Ottawa and Toronto you had several ridings without incumbents where the Liberals came in second.  Also it seems in most university area ridings the Liberals did quite well like Guelph, Kingston & the Islands (which lacked an incumbent), London North Centre, Kitchener-Waterloo and even in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, the Liberals were quite strong around McMaster University, they just did horrible everywhere else in the riding.  My understanding is Kitchener-Waterloo has above average income as well as more educated than most ridings and that is the demographic the Liberals are usually strongest amongst, otherwise too educated to vote Tory, but too wealthy to vote NDP.

Well, in Kitchener Centre, Karen Redman was Telegdi's "partner in crime" when it came to surprise/narrow 2008 Liberal defeatees aggressively bidding for a 2011 comeback--though with a 2008 losing margin larger than Telegdi's 17 votes and a stronger NDP challenge, it wasn't quite as bald a "strategic left" consensus in her case; but still, she skewed the KC picture as well.  And when it comes to the kind of suburban Ottawa/Toronto ridings you're alluding too: the infrastructure in place in such seats already heavily favoured the Liberals--we're talkiing about the kinds of seats where where even factoring out the AudreyAlexa terminally-single-digit era, "normal" NDP shares pre-2011 were closer to 10% than 20%.  Whereas in K-W, NDP reached high teens except when Green took a big bite in '08 (indeed, it had the *highest* NDP share in Waterloo Region in '06, higher even than Cambridge--though that may have been partly a kneejerk reaction to the Conservatives having nominated a turbanned candidate that year.)

And while you have a point about a certain sustained "university/educated class" skew t/w voting Liberal in 2011, remember that some of it had to do with a perception that Michael Ignatieff was "one of them"--in a post-Iggy era with the NDP consilidating its claim upon Official Opposition and plausible-government-in-waiting in lieu of the Liberals, it's those town'n'gown "Iggy Grits" that might be most open to sliding NDPward.

Generally speaking, K-W may be of above-average income and education--but not to the point where it's an "Oakville" or "Ottawa-Orleans" kind of riding.  It's a SW Ontario heartland riding, where under non-abnormal (i.e. non-Telegdi) circumstances NDP pars tend to be higher.  A lot of it is affluent; but a lot of it isn't--student-class, and even a fair-sized and very NDP-amenable blue-collar element in North Kitchener.

Provincially speaking: yes, Witmer won in 1990; but within these boundaries (thank North Kitchener!) the seat would have gone NDP.  And the reason for Witmer winning in an otherwise NDP year had more to do with 1990 being more of an "anti-Liberal" than "pro-NDP" vote per se, and Witmer had already gotten her foot in the door as a "non-Liberal replacement-MPP-in-making" through a strong if futile 1987 bid.  If Witmer weren't the PC placeholder, her seat, too, might have gone with the province-wide NDP flow.

Right now, we're talking about the NDP (federal and provincial alike) on a roll--and if there's a candidate perfectly expressive of that fact for K-W, it's Fife, who could very easily assemble a grand coalition of "Witmer Tories" and "Iggy/Telegdi Liberals" en route to victory--and as with Witmer in 1987, Fife in 2007 could be seen as a foreboding dress rehearsal for a future open seat.  (Even if she was third rather than second; but such was the state of the ONDP in 2007.)

It isn't that she absolutely will win; it's that she should be taken absolutely seriously as a contender.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on July 16, 2012, 07:47:10 AM
I wouldn't call KW necessarily SWON but its definetly got much of the same characteristics... i'd call it that transition zone between the GTA and SWON... Historically (90s) it was very working class, germanic/white, auto/industrial (Cambridge in particular)... but since then RIM helped boots it to be a very Yuppie/hi-tech super boom area that one woul think votes Liberal and well with the Gov't for the most part (as you can see the seats now are moslty gov't or Liberal Guelph being the standout). Yes it has its relative affluence but also i'd say a growing commutter population since housing is way less then in TO.
My point, I agree with adma; in today's politics on ON the NDP can't be counted out especially with a solid candidate and a by-election. Some things we can't forget about the atmosphere this by-election:
- Liberals polling consistently in third provincewide
- A number of bad news stories recently (Liberal party called for cancelling gas plant not the gov't) looks like vote buying.
- RIM is not the same RIM as 2007; there have been many job losses, mostly in the KW area
- the Liberal post-sec. EDU plank is being skuered by student's... the qualifications for this 40% business is so specific, most won't get it.
- The NPD rise fed/Prov; Andrea is in KW almost on a weekly basis (from my FB KW friends) and i'd bet there is a push to get Mulcair to visit.
- The PC's in opposition: they have been terrible, not relevant during the budget, zero media coverage it was and since then has been a Lib/NDP fight in most media outlets (for good or bad). They looked opportunistic supporting the NDP motions, in fact voting against their election platform... will they be called out on that in this by-election? They should be.

This is going to be a three-way race and i think its will come down to do the liberals deserve a majority? If no, then is the NDP or the PC best suited to win.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 16, 2012, 09:31:51 PM
I wouldn't call KW necessarily SWON but its definetly got much of the same characteristics... i'd call it that transition zone between the GTA and SWON... Historically (90s) it was very working class, germanic/white, auto/industrial (Cambridge in particular)... but since then RIM helped boots it to be a very Yuppie/hi-tech super boom area that one woul think votes Liberal and well with the Gov't for the most part (as you can see the seats now are moslty gov't or Liberal Guelph being the standout). Yes it has its relative affluence but also i'd say a growing commutter population since housing is way less then in TO.

RIM and high-tech notwithstanding, I still wouldn't bunch K-W (or even Guelph, for that matter) up w/the GTA--and besides, in a post-Orange Crush environment when old easy-pigeonholes of "NDP constituency" have been rendered archaic, apparent yuppieism or GTA-commuterism isn't necessarily a barrier to real or latent NDP support.  After all, Cambridge has been subject to the same demographic forces as K-W and Guelph; and yet the NDP has swung back to a clear federal second place there, and the ONDP nearly turned it into a 3-way marginal.

And besides, once again, when it comes to Guelph or K-W federally, the Liberalism (and perhaps, too, the impression thereof as grandfathered down provincially last year) was more out of circumstance than out of "natural conviction" (other than the town'n'gown "Iggy Liberal" phenomenon).  With Guelph, we had the rare circumstance of a SW Ontario seat that stayed Liberal in '08--one of only two such seats west of Peel Region--and yet, that was a under-third-of-the-vote circumstance squeezed out of a chaotic 4-way-race situation.  No matter; the Liberals went into 2011 as incumbent, and under a whole lot of pressure thanks to the '08 result they soaked up all the "strategic left" energy, decimating the once-competitive Greens and knocking the NDP beneath their 04-06 share.  None of this had anything to do with "GTAification".

Keep in mind that in the 2011 federal disaster, by the time E-day rolled around the Liberals were basically reduced to supertargeting four SW Ontario seats: salvaging Guelph and London NC, and taking back those two Kitchener-area seats (with the former seatholders) which they unexpectedly lost in '08.  They only batted 1 for 4; but those were the only SW Ontario seats where they surpassed 30% (or even a quarter) of the vote.

Incidentally, may I correct an earlier point: while it had the highest NDP vote tally, K-W did *not* have Waterloo Region's highest NDP share in '06--it fell short of Kitchener Centre by half a percentage point.  (But it's worth noting that Kitchener Centre's candidate in '04 and '06, Richard Walsh-Bowers, ran as an independent in K-W in 2011--perhaps further depressing the NDP vote through perceptions of a schism, versus the "solid front" behind Telegdi.)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 17, 2012, 06:47:17 AM
Also with consideration of the whole "affluent demo" question: true, there are big swaths of suburban Waterloo that are ordinarily disinclined (even by 1990 standards) to vote NDP.  However, we're dealing with a situation where the PCs are the incumbent party (and on top of the provincial polls); yet the "inclination" is more Liberal/Red Tory moderate (and therefore indisposed to Randy Hillier-ish excesses).  With that under consideration, the NDP could well prevail over a "split right", sweeping a whole lot of North Kitchener and downtown Waterloo polls as the other parties cancel themselves out elsewhere...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 31, 2012, 06:17:59 PM
Bev Oda is now officially out. Good riddance.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on July 31, 2012, 07:36:32 PM
Incidentally, while I haven't yet done a provincial 2011 divvying-up, here's a federal 2011 divvying-up of Kitchener-Waterloo--rough, un-double-checked figures, and using strictly e-day regular and "400" polls (but not "500" polls, or advance or special polls)

laurelwood--Con 1970 (44.32), Lib 1620 (36.45), NDP 663 (14.92), GP 161 (3.62), PP 24 (.54), Ind 4 (.09), ML 3 (.07)
rummelhardt--Con 1878 (44.28), Lib 1608 (37.92), NDP 564 (13.30), GP 175 (4.13), PP 6 (.14), Ind 6 (.14), ML 4 (.09)
northfield--Con 2256 (43.68), Lib 1677 (32.47), NDP 926 (17.93), GP 262 (5.07), PP 19 (.37), Ind 16 (.31), ML 9 (.17)
lexington--Con 4491 (47.81), Lib 3060 (32.57), NDP 1405 (14.96), GP 386 (4.11), Ind 22 (.23), PP 20 (.21), ML 10 (.11)
university--Lib 1193 (41.77), Con 790 (27.66), NDP 662 (23.18), GP 162 (5.67), PP 31 (1.09), Ind 13 (.46), ML 5 (.18)
ec waterloo--Lib 2534 (37.54), Con 2522 (37.36), NDP 1240 (18.37), GP 394 (5.84), PP 30 (.44), Ind 24 (.36), ML 6 (.09)
beechwood--Lib 1296 (46.50), Con 975 (34.98), NDP 380 (13.63), GP 117 (4.20), PP 12 (.43), Ind 6 (.22), ML 1 (.04)
wc waterloo--Lib 1380 (47.21), Con 901 (30.82), NDP 393 (13.45), GP 231 (7.90), PP 12 (.41), Ind 5 (.17), ML 1 (.03)
westvale--Con 1598 (42.26), Lib 1362 (36.02), NDP 624 (16.50), GP 176 (4.65), PP 11 (.29), Ind 6 (.16), ML 4 (.11)
nw kitchener--Con 1777 (44.58), Lib 1187 (29.78), NDP 870 (21.83), GP 119 (2.99), PP 14 (.35), Ind 13 (.33), ML 6 (.15)
nc kitchener--Lib 1266 (37.85), Con 1116 (33.36), NDP 674 (20.15), GP 250 (7.47), PP 19 (.57), Ind 15 (.45), ML 5 (.15)
ne kitchener--Con 1202 (38.98), NDP 837 (27.14), Lib 834 (27.04), GP 171 (5.54), PP 22 (.71). Ind 16 (.52), ML 2 (.06)
bridgeport--Con 870 (53.21), Lib 364 (22.26), NDP 326 (19.94), GP 62 (3.79), PP 7 (.43), Ind 4 (.24), ML 2 (.12)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 31, 2012, 07:39:51 PM
We're going to need a neighbourhood map...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on August 01, 2012, 08:47:44 AM
So were having two by-elections now... Sorbara is leaving to focus on being the campaign chair... you know the one that "bought" seats in Mississauga by forcing the government to kill a power plant.
At any rate, this should be a straight Lib-PC battle, this is pure suburbian, very Italian to boot... the federal Liberals lost Vaughan to the Tories in a by-election, before the 2011 election.
This might help the NDP, by being able to focus and concentrate resource on KW while the Tories and Liberals will have to slpit resources in two ridings.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1235179--ontario-by-election-to-be-held-in-vaughan-as-sorbara-retires


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on August 01, 2012, 07:07:03 PM
Hey! I'll be able to report from the ground since I live right across the street from Vaughan. :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 01, 2012, 11:32:31 PM
ooh Holmes must live on Steeles Ave ;)

Well, if the Libs pick up K-W, then we can only hope the Tories win Vaughan. Not sure how likely that is. Italians havent abandoned the OLP quite yet.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on August 02, 2012, 06:26:13 AM
I don't rule out the PCs winning Vaughan. Let's not forget that Julian Fantino won Vaughan federally for the Tories by a huge margin and just like the PCs won Waterloo thanks to Witmer's personal popularity...a lot of the Liberal toe in Vaughan was a personal vote for Sorbara...the PCs also ran a very weak candidate in Vaughan who was controversial for having previously run for the Liberals against Fantino...and lost.

I have a hunch that whatever Liberal plan there was to win Waterloo fell through. The NDP has the strongest candidate in Catherine Fife and the Liberals are not picking a candidate until next week and the race is between three mediocrities.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on August 02, 2012, 07:34:30 AM
So whats your thoughts Holmes?
Unless the tories can pick a star candidate ala Fantino, the liberals should have this... even if they choose a mediocre candidate (as long as their italian). Remember the OLP is not the same Liberal party as the federal cousin, its name only and there not that dead provincially as they are federally (although the last few provincial polls had the OLP what thrid?)

Anyway, DL is on the same point i made, if the Liberals have pretty much forsaken KW then they can focus on Vaughan and make a media splash by saying they won the confidence of the people blah blah. Save face. IF the NDP can win KW, the Liberals win Vaughan, then the real losers are the PCs and the Liberals will be happy enough with that.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on August 02, 2012, 04:49:08 PM
What do I think? Well it's too early to think, especially since no candidates have been nominated yet. But a PC win wouldn't surprise me at all. Still, it's a by-election, and weird things can happen, only to be "corrected" during the next election.

ooh Holmes must live on Steeles Ave ;)

Yes, somewhat, although you could've always just looked at the map in my profile. :) I'm also about a 5 minute walk from Teddy too, but I'm too shy to meet him.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 02, 2012, 05:06:21 PM
What do I think? Well it's too early to think, especially since no candidates have been nominated yet. But a PC win wouldn't surprise me at all. Still, it's a by-election, and weird things can happen, only to be "corrected" during the next election.

ooh Holmes must live on Steeles Ave ;)

Yes, somewhat, although you could've always just looked at the map in my profile. :) I'm also about a 5 minute walk from Teddy too, but I'm too shy to meet him.

Perhaps the same reason I've never met Hash.. although he lives all the way in Orleans.

But yea, I knew you lived at York U, didn't know you were on Steeles.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on August 02, 2012, 05:12:32 PM
Well, that's the same reason I didn't make plans to meet you when you came down for the convention in March, although in my defense I did have plans for that day that didn't fall through. But uh if you're ever in the GTA again please force me out of hiding. Also Teddy scares me a bit too, that might be another reason I haven't met him. Hope he doesn't read that in case we meet one day.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on August 02, 2012, 06:34:36 PM
Well, that's the same reason I didn't make plans to meet you when you came down for the convention in March, although in my defense I did have plans for that day that didn't fall through. But uh if you're ever in the GTA again please force me out of hiding. Also Teddy scares me a bit too, that might be another reason I haven't met him. Hope he doesn't read that in case we meet one day.

Last year, Hugh and I went for dinner/drinks fortnightly (on my pay day). Polnut joined us one time, too (he's normally in a different city). I've only caught up with Hugh the once since he got back from overseas, though - we went for coffee a couple of weeks ago.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 02, 2012, 06:57:44 PM
Well, that's the same reason I didn't make plans to meet you when you came down for the convention in March, although in my defense I did have plans for that day that didn't fall through. But uh if you're ever in the GTA again please force me out of hiding. Also Teddy scares me a bit too, that might be another reason I haven't met him. Hope he doesn't read that in case we meet one day.

Not meeting Teddy is probably a good idea. ;)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hash on August 02, 2012, 07:02:49 PM
Well, this is really off-topic, but I'm always in downtown Ottawa on weekdays if anybody, randomly, decides to visit Bytown for whatever reason.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on August 03, 2012, 06:37:27 AM
One of those weird things to happen i hope is the NDP winning KW

I'm comfortable in my cozy DT TO hood, Trinity-Spadina keeps me busy, not as much as my old riding of T-Danforth did. Its rare i go above bloor... almost never head above Eglington; once or twice a year, with a shirpa, i head to Yorkdale.  :P

I would ahve loved to meet y'all but i never made it to convention, since i'm no longer a youth by a long shot the budget wasn't there. I have Hatman on Facebook since thats where i chill.

God i miss Ottawa, i have most of my family there so.

I still go and take a look over at BluntObjects (i think thats teddys work) its good to know thy enemy right? :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 03, 2012, 07:35:12 AM
BO (They didn't think that one through, did they?) is in fact Teddy's Blog... or at least it's shared with another guy who runs it. It's a pretty good site, actually. (credit where credit is due).

Tommy, if you come to Ottawa, we should do a mini-Atlas meet up. :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 04, 2012, 05:26:40 PM
I don't rule out the PCs winning Vaughan. Let's not forget that Julian Fantino won Vaughan federally for the Tories by a huge margin and just like the PCs won Waterloo thanks to Witmer's personal popularity...a lot of the Liberal toe in Vaughan was a personal vote for Sorbara...the PCs also ran a very weak candidate in Vaughan who was controversial for having previously run for the Liberals against Fantino...and lost.

Then again, one might also argue that Julian Fantino had "unfair advantage" in 2011 through his byelected incumbency, versus the hapless Iggy Liberals who were at that point concentrating more upon salvaging whatever 416/905 incumbents it could.  If it were Fantino vs an incumbent Bevilacqua, the race would have been a lot closer.

But then again, the "no standing Liberal incumbent" situation there may foretell a "no standing Liberal incumbent" situation here...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on August 05, 2012, 01:02:59 AM
 called in Manitoba for the riding of Fort Whyte on Sept 4th.

Riding was left vacated by former PC leader Hugh McFadyen. Brandy Schmidt is the NDP candidate. Newly elected PC leader Brian Pallister will be seeking the  PC nomination


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on August 05, 2012, 03:05:42 AM
called in Manitoba for the riding of Fort Whyte on Sept 4th.

Riding was left vacated by former PC leader Hugh McFadyen. Brandy Schmidt is the NDP candidate. Newly elected PC leader Brian Pallister will be seeking the  PC nomination

Brian Palliser, the former federal MP?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on August 05, 2012, 01:36:46 PM
Yep,


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Pallister


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on August 07, 2012, 09:19:31 AM
Looks like Forum did a poll in Vaughan... the breakdown might chance with Candidates, but this is going to be a dog fight.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1237959--poll-vaughan-byelection-up-for-grabs

41% PC, 40% OLP, 15% NDP (we were never in that game anyway)

---

I read about the Manitoba by-election... so the PCs elected a Filmon era cabinet minister; the very same Filmon gov't that the current NDP demonizes every chance they get and esp. at every election (might not say it in name, but its almost always aluded to). So why not shot yourself in the foot while your down eh :P
But Fort Whyte probably won't be much of a fight... the ridings been PC since it was created in 99; it has the 2nd highest income in the province, rather ethnically diverse though at 21%. But the new leader is running here and the PCs got over 60% in 11. If the Liberals put their act together they might be competative, they were in 03 and a 05 by-election.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on August 07, 2012, 09:24:57 AM
Its worth noting that last October the NDP took only 11% in Vaughan - so even 15% is a decent showing in what is normally a total dead zone for them.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 07, 2012, 07:29:35 PM
And *federally*, they did only 11.6% last year.

Interestingly enough, the ONDP gor 11.7% in Vaughan in 2007 vs 18.7% for the PCs--perhaps dead-cat-bouncey with the help of an Italian candidate vs a parachute-y South Asian (?) PCer...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on August 08, 2012, 02:23:23 PM
Hey 11% is nothing to shy at, doesn't mean your in contention though :P ... and trust me, my first election working for the NDP we were excited to break 2000 votes!

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1238711--mcguinty-calls-byelections-for-vaughan-and-kitchener-waterloo

Its official, the by-elections are set for Sept 6th... if anyone thinks that date is familiar, look what happened on Sept 6th...

http://www.cbc.ca/archives/categories/politics/provincial-territorial-politics/ontario-elections-25-tumultuous-years/astonishing-victory-for-the-ndp.html



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 08, 2012, 04:39:58 PM
A lot happening that week. :/


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on August 08, 2012, 05:21:33 PM
Unfair that Vaughan has a smaller campaign length, but then again, it's likely to fall out of Liberal hands, so less exposure to the PCs in Vaughan is better for McGuinty.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on August 08, 2012, 07:57:17 PM
Hey 11% is nothing to shy at, doesn't mean your in contention though :P ... and trust me, my first election working for the NDP we were excited to break 2000 votes!

12 years ago in Quebec, 1% for NDP in Quebec was great.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on August 10, 2012, 08:50:24 AM
For Kitchener-Waterloo the Liberals have gone with Eric Davis, the candidate back in the last prov. election. So the NDP now carry the heavy-weight candidate card, will it make the difference?
 
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1019163/eric-davis-wins-liberal-nomination-in-kitchener-waterloo


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on August 10, 2012, 04:48:16 PM
the NDP now carry the heavy-weight candidate card, will it make the difference?

The chair of the local school board is not a particularly noteworthy candidate. This person doesn't even have a wikipedia page about her.



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hash on August 10, 2012, 05:55:51 PM
the NDP now carry the heavy-weight candidate card, will it make the difference?

The chair of the local school board is not a particularly noteworthy candidate. This person doesn't even have a wikipedia page about her.



Don't destroy their fantasies.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on August 10, 2012, 06:03:20 PM
Is that the new standard for determining good candidates? A wikipedia entry? Golly gee.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on August 10, 2012, 06:41:09 PM
the NDP now carry the heavy-weight candidate card, will it make the difference?

The chair of the local school board is not a particularly noteworthy candidate. This person doesn't even have a wikipedia page about her.



While I agree with the 1st sentence, I can't agree with the second. Most mayors of cities under 100,000 inhabitants don't have articles, but they are clearly star candidates in their riding.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on August 10, 2012, 07:22:36 PM
I don't deny she's a good candidate, in the sense that anyone who's been seriously involved in local administration and community work is a good candidate. But in this sense a lawyer who's on various charity boards and who came within 7% of winning last time for the Liberals is also a good candidate. All three candidates strike me as reasonably good candidates in this sense, but not the sort of "star" candidate that ordinary voters actually have a personal opinion of.

Fair point about the mayors on wikipedia, though, Max.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 10, 2012, 10:47:24 PM
I don't deny she's a good candidate, in the sense that anyone who's been seriously involved in local administration and community work is a good candidate. But in this sense a lawyer who's on various charity boards and who came within 7% of winning last time for the Liberals is also a good candidate. All three candidates strike me as reasonably good candidates in this sense, but not the sort of "star" candidate that ordinary voters actually have a personal opinion of.

Fair point about the mayors on wikipedia, though, Max.

Though I'd argue that had Fife been the ONDP candidate in 2011 and the K-W left-of-centre picture not been so skewed artificially Liberalward by the federal Telegdi circumstance, she might even have nipped Rogers for second place or at least come a much closer 3rd.

And never mind star candidates; we're also talking about leadership "that ordinary voters actually have a personal opinion of"--and generally speaking, such "personal opinion" has been much more favourable to Horwath than to Hudak or McGuinty.

Thus while the crude notional odds don't favour the NDP in K-W, the Fife + Horwath + byelection juggernaut suggests that such existing notional-odds logic ought to be tossed out the window...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 11, 2012, 02:33:48 PM
*But*, as proof that patterns die hard, I'm hearing of a Forum poll for K-W that shows the Liberals and PCs tied at 36%, and the NDP at 20%.  (If someone can post a link, please do so.)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on August 12, 2012, 10:11:13 AM
Now forum is hinting in tweets that their latest poll has the Tories leading in Waterloo and the NDP eating into Liberal support....no details yet


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on August 12, 2012, 10:17:19 AM
Great! I can just hear it now, vote Liberal strategically, they're the only ones who can stop the Tories.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on August 12, 2012, 11:14:06 AM
In this case the "strategic voting" argument is the opposite, the PCs would make the srtgument that people thinking of voting NDP should vote PC make sure McGuinty doesn't regain his majority - in which case all the NDP's clout would be lost.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on August 13, 2012, 07:01:29 AM
I don't think we will ever really get away from this old Strategic voting line... just a new take, Vote PC to take away a Liberal Majority. My gut is that in more urban centres it harder to find a NDP -to-PC voter, where as you can see this more in some rural areas (i'm thinking mostly Northern Ontario).

Its going to be a battle between for "do you want a majority or keep this minority? if no, it becomes whos the best opposition to the OLP?"

Ya if anyone can find that poll, eek

And by "star-candidate" to me that generally seems to be anyone who hold an elected office/has held an elected office... whether they did a good job or not (obviously that plays). But having a candidated who a)can win elections; b)has experience running in them is nothing but an asset. Her candidacy is also important in that shes a SCHOOL BOARD trustee and president... fighting the so-called "Education Premier"
Also, we don't really need another Lawyer at QP now do we? :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on August 13, 2012, 07:13:55 AM
Just saw this..
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/1241130--steven-del-duca-nominated-for-liberals-in-sept-6-vaughan-byelection

Steven Del Duca is the Liberal candidate (seeing how quick they were on the mark here, i think this is their priority target) .. former executive assistant to Greg Sorbara and current director of public affairs for the Carpenters District Council of Ontario


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 13, 2012, 08:59:12 PM
A bit of an aside here: has anyone done (or is in the process of doing) polling maps for the 2011 Ontario election? (Esp. ones where we can figure which polls are which)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 13, 2012, 09:35:59 PM
A bit of an aside here: has anyone done (or is in the process of doing) polling maps for the 2011 Ontario election? (Esp. ones where we can figure which polls are which)

Geez, there's a link on my blog, but: http://www.globalnews.ca/pages/topicNew.aspx?id=6442556629 :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on August 13, 2012, 11:01:24 PM
Forum has just released a poll in Kitchener Waterloo and its a shocker: PC 34%, NDP 30%, Liberals 30%. If we comp-are these numbers to the October election the NDP is up 13 points, the PCs are down 9 points and the Liberals are down 6 points. If the NDP can win a riding like Waterloo - what's to stop them from winning all of Ontario?

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1241559--ontario-liberals-supported-in-vaughan-but-lose-ground-in-kitchener-waterloo-new-polls-show


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 13, 2012, 11:13:59 PM
oooh. Good news.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on August 14, 2012, 06:13:50 AM
But she doesn't have a wiki page.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 14, 2012, 07:01:50 AM
Definite proof that "candidacy matters", as well as of my "Telegdi skewed the picture" argument--though it's oddly telling how the media's downplaying the NDP element on behalf of "Liberals no longer in the lead", etc...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on August 14, 2012, 08:12:58 AM
Definite proof that "candidacy matters", as well as of my "Telegdi skewed the picture" argument--though it's oddly telling how the media's downplaying the NDP element on behalf of "Liberals no longer in the lead", etc...

Also, the influence Andrea has/will have... if you look at the leaders numbers; she is far ahead of Hudak and Dalton "Tim Hudak is stuck at 25 per cent approval, compared with 49 per cent for NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and 33 per cent for McGuinty"

... but the Liberal have a healthy lead in Vaughan, actually saw an increase. Its interesting to see this huge difference between these two ridings.



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on August 14, 2012, 08:31:15 AM
OH... and Happy Birthday Hatman :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 14, 2012, 08:55:09 AM
OH... and Happy Birthday Hatman :)

Yes, this poll is a wonderful birthday present...lol


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on August 14, 2012, 09:41:43 AM

Definite proof that "candidacy matters"

I'm still not really convinced the individual candidates are affecting things that much - the NDP is actually doing very well in province-wide polls, in some cases better than the Liberals, and as you say adma, one might expect a larger swing here since there were strategic considerations in the general election that don't apply now. But whatever - I could also just be wrong about this case.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on August 14, 2012, 09:50:43 AM

I'm still not really convinced the individual candidates are affecting things that much - the NDP is actually doing very well in province-wide polls, in some cases better than the Liberals

I'm not sure what more evidence you need. The NDP was polling just as well province-wide at the end of April when Forum polled K-W and asked people how they would vote giving just party names and no local candidate names. Back then the NDP polled 20%, now a couple of months later, nothing has changed province-wide - yet just by adding the candidates' names the NDP surges from 20% to 30% thanks to Catherine Fife...in Vaughan where the NDP will likely run a no-name candidate - there is no NDP "bounce at all". In  byelections in particular - local candidates matter a lot.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 14, 2012, 05:04:51 PM
it might not be the candidate so much as the campaign


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 14, 2012, 06:55:49 PM
it might not be the candidate so much as the campaign

Or both, in coordinated tandem.  Fife gave the ONDP incentive to pursue this as a serious, *winnable* target, despite naysayers pointing to the 2011 fed-prov results as proof that K-W is RIM-yuppying terminally away from such targetability.  Otherwise, a solid 20% might have been possible on Andrea Horwath's simple coattails--but 30% is the result of the Fife juggernaut, with added boost from this being a resource-concentrating byelection rather than the lost-in-the-ozone circumstance of a general election...

 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 14, 2012, 09:26:58 PM
Fife is a good candidate, and worthy of a good campaign for sure. But she's not winning it on name recognition alone. I doubt most voters would have heard of her before the by-election. Can you even name your public school trustee? I can't, and I voted for her!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 15, 2012, 09:24:45 PM
Fife is a good candidate, and worthy of a good campaign for sure. But she's not winning it on name recognition alone. I doubt most voters would have heard of her before the by-election. Can you even name your public school trustee? I can't, and I voted for her!

I addressed the name-recognition-alone point in my "in coordinated tandem" statement  And besides, we're not just talking about your regular school trustee, we're talking about a "trustee and chair of the Waterloo Region District School Board and president of the Ontario Public School Boards' Association".  We're talking about a big shot here--and one who would be familiar to K-W voters from her previous provincial run in 2007, at which time she was already something of a star-candidate-albeit-shame-about-the-party case.

And don't be too hard on school trustees, even if you can't name your own--very often, it *is* a launching pad to political power.  (Toronto has a fair number who went straight from trustee to provincial elected office: Kathleen Wynne, Donna Cansfield, the newly-elected Michael Coteau and Soo Wong, even Rosario Marchese in the NDP camp.  And while the party of choice often helped, trusteeship *did* hold its inherent star-candidate coattails...and in the case of Wynne and Cansfield, especially in the throw-out-the-anti-education-Common-Sense-Tory-bums atmosphere of 2003...)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on August 15, 2012, 10:50:09 PM
And don't be too hard on school trustees, even if you can't name your own--very often, it *is* a launching pad to political power. 

They're probably also more familiar to the parents of children in the electorate, as opposed to people more our age.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on August 16, 2012, 01:17:02 AM
And don't be too hard on school trustees, even if you can't name your own--very often, it *is* a launching pad to political power.  

They're probably also more familiar to the parents of children in the electorate, as opposed to people more our age.

I went to school with the son of my trustee. Which aren't really elected, since there is never more than one candidate in my area.
Not surprising when a city of 30,000 has 13 trustees.

Last elections were in 2007. 2011 ones were cancelled to merge them with municipal elections, but cities refused, so, they are on indefinite terms.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 16, 2012, 09:27:32 AM
Quebec has separate elections for school board which is a joke. What's the turnout, like 10%?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 16, 2012, 09:34:35 AM
Quebec has separate elections for school board which is a joke. What's the turnout, like 10%?

Or thereabouts. :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on August 16, 2012, 09:56:51 AM
why would cities refuse? Yesh, municipal elections have brutally low turnout anyway i couldn't imagine an election JUST for school trustees

Just like i don't get why in Vancouver you have seperate Parks board commissioners... wouldn't that just fall under city council direction? meh


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on August 16, 2012, 10:10:51 AM
You should see the insane array of separately elected local positions they have here in the great US of A.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 16, 2012, 01:06:21 PM
why would cities refuse? Yesh, municipal elections have brutally low turnout anyway i couldn't imagine an election JUST for school trustees

Just like i don't get why in Vancouver you have seperate Parks board commissioners... wouldn't that just fall under city council direction? meh

A few municipalities in the area (eg Nepean) used to elect hydro commissoners before amalgamation.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on August 16, 2012, 06:03:15 PM

The electoral districts aren't the same, so it would complicate the jobs of the cities.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 16, 2012, 07:05:11 PM
And there have been trustee byelections in Toronto in the past year, to replace Coteau + Wong after they were elected to Queen's Park...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 16, 2012, 10:13:50 PM
And there have been trustee byelections in Toronto in the past year, to replace Coteau + Wong after they were elected to Queen's Park...

I bet those would be fun o_0

Never had any trustee by-elections in recent memory in Ottawa. It's possible that such things don't exist.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 17, 2012, 09:20:23 PM
It may depend upon what council or school boards decide--sometimes a byelection, sometimes a "temporary" appointment.

In any case...

http://www.toronto.ca/elections/by-election-2012/tdsb-17-20/

Ward 17: 5151 votes; winner w/974 votes.

Ward 20: 6422 votes; winner w/1849 votes.

NB: in the riding of Don Valley East, where former Ward 17 trustee Michael Coteau ran and won for the Liberals, 974 votes would have been good enough for 3% of the provincial vote.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 18, 2012, 08:46:41 AM
Wow. That's a lot of candidates for an election nobody cares about.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on August 18, 2012, 02:53:59 PM
Wow. That's a lot of candidates for an election nobody cares about.

They attract more candidates for a reason. The only election ever for my school board which was contested was a by-election, in 2009.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on August 21, 2012, 08:04:08 AM
Eek, in Fort Whyte; this is a little unsettling no?

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/mrjetztvs-candidacy-casts-doubt-on-rules-166859386.html



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on August 21, 2012, 04:28:18 PM
As Denis Coderre said he will announce on November 9 his choice (he will either run for Liberal leadership or Montreal mayorship), La Presse is reporting than NDP is already searching a star candidate to run in Bourassa in the resulting by-election. NDP seems to be sure than he will choose the mayorship. La Presse is also saying than, being a Montreal riding, there would be pressure on the Bloc leader (former MP for Hochelaga) to run there.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 21, 2012, 04:33:11 PM
Coderre didn't say anything about resigning his seat prematurely. Given that Tremblay is a Pelquiste this could mean he's not seeking a fourth term. The alternative is getting steamrolled in a leadership race.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 23, 2012, 02:10:24 PM
Denise Savoie is resigning, so Victoria will shortly be vacant.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/08/23/ndp-mp-denise-savoie-to-resign-her-seat/


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on August 23, 2012, 04:24:58 PM
I hope she gets better soon. She will be missed.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 23, 2012, 05:16:45 PM
safe NDP hold


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on August 23, 2012, 05:42:15 PM
its sad/unfortunate when any MP/MPP has to step aside due to a health issue, but i' relieved thats the reason and not for any political reason.
So... i know its far too early but any thoughts on who might run for the seat for the NDP? or any other party. The city is full of current/former municipal dippers; who knows Carole James might want to try something new (not sure if there is still any bad blood there, but she probably will be in line for a cabinet post so maybe not)
And yup, safe NDP seat now-a-days. 88-93 was held by John Brewin then Liberal David Anderson, then since 2006 its been Savoie.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on August 23, 2012, 10:15:16 PM
I suspect that Savoie signaled to the party a while ago that she was going to step down and they timed it so that a byelection in a solid NDP seat (ie: Victoria) would have to be on the same day as the other byelections that are all in really bad seats for the NDP like Calgary Centre, Durham and Etobicoke Centre.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on August 23, 2012, 11:42:46 PM
I suspect that Savoie signaled to the party a while ago that she was going to step down and they timed it so that a byelection in a solid NDP seat (ie: Victoria) would have to be on the same day as the other byelections that are all in really bad seats for the NDP like Calgary Centre, Durham and Etobicoke Centre.

Well, a strong second would be very good in Durham and Calgary Centre. They don't need to win.
And I'm sure than NDP hopes there is no election in Etobicoke.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 24, 2012, 07:19:20 AM
Well, a strong second would be very good in Durham and Calgary Centre. They don't need to win.
And I'm sure than NDP hopes there is no election in Etobicoke.

"No chance" is one thing; hoping there is no election is another.  And I doubt the NDP is so easily ego-bruised that they'd hope for no Etobicoke Centre byelection...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on August 24, 2012, 06:22:57 PM
I can think of a few reasons why the NDP would probably just as soon see the Supreme Court quash the lower court judgement and for there to be no Etobicoke Centre byelection.

1. If there is a byelection, the Liberals would be heavily favoured to win if only because byelections tend to go against the party in power and the tory win in that seat was seen as a bit of an unexpected fluke last year. The last thing the NDP needs is for the Liberal party to get any oxygen or momentum as a result of picking up a seat in a byelection.

2. If the court upholds the lower court ruling - it will actually help the Conservatives in the long-run and hurt the NDP in the long-run since it will set a precedent for a very high bar in terms of voter ID on election day etc... just the kind of "vote suppression" that the GOP is pushing for the in the US. If the courts rule that everyone needs photo ID and documentation to vote - it will dissuade younger, poorer, more transient people from voting.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: canadian1 on August 25, 2012, 08:54:01 PM
I can think of a few reasons why the NDP would probably just as soon see the Supreme Court quash the lower court judgement and for there to be no Etobicoke Centre byelection.

1. If there is a byelection, the Liberals would be heavily favoured to win if only because byelections tend to go against the party in power and the tory win in that seat was seen as a bit of an unexpected fluke last year. The last thing the NDP needs is for the Liberal party to get any oxygen or momentum as a result of picking up a seat in a byelection.

2. If the court upholds the lower court ruling - it will actually help the Conservatives in the long-run and hurt the NDP in the long-run since it will set a precedent for a very high bar in terms of voter ID on election day etc... just the kind of "vote suppression" that the GOP is pushing for the in the US. If the courts rule that everyone needs photo ID and documentation to vote - it will dissuade younger, poorer, more transient people from voting.

Photo ID isn't at issue. What's at issue is the documentation that's already required in the Elections Act--specifically, proof of citizenship. But I agree that the lower court ruling set too high a bar; it will probably be impossible to meet in the future.

I also agree that the NDP would lose political capital in an Etobicoke Centre by-election.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 25, 2012, 09:37:16 PM
Joan Crockett is the next MP for Calgary Centre. :)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/story/2012/08/25/calgary-centre-conservative-nomination-byelection.html


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 25, 2012, 10:40:31 PM
I also agree that the NDP would lose political capital in an Etobicoke Centre by-election.

That is, if they had that much political capital there to begin with.

But AFAIC, the fright-of-Liberal-oxygen thing is a petty throwback to bad old ways, and it really belongs more to the extreme liquidate-the-Liberals wing of the NDP (or, for that matter, the more traditional liquidate-the-NDP wing of the Grits).  As I see it, at worst they'd lose as much capital here as the Conservatives did in the Toronto-Danforth byelection--and of course, if a Etobicoke Centre byelection was bunched with several others where the NDP has a greater chance of, at least, overtaking the Liberals, the net "lost political capital" could be more negligible than some are fearing...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: canadian1 on August 25, 2012, 11:21:22 PM
I also agree that the NDP would lose political capital in an Etobicoke Centre by-election.

That is, if they had that much political capital there to begin with.

But AFAIC, the fright-of-Liberal-oxygen thing is a petty throwback to bad old ways, and it really belongs more to the extreme liquidate-the-Liberals wing of the NDP (or, for that matter, the more traditional liquidate-the-NDP wing of the Grits).  As I see it, at worst they'd lose as much capital here as the Conservatives did in the Toronto-Danforth byelection--and of course, if a Etobicoke Centre byelection was bunched with several others where the NDP has a greater chance of, at least, overtaking the Liberals, the net "lost political capital" could be more negligible than some are fearing...

But as far as I can see, the "liquidate the Liberals" wing has taken the reins of the party. In the absence of a merger, which I don't see happening for some years, what other mantra could the party leadership adopt?

Everything I've seen from Mulcair suggests he's quite keen on taking power at some point.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on August 26, 2012, 12:49:01 AM
I also agree that the NDP would lose political capital in an Etobicoke Centre by-election.

That is, if they had that much political capital there to begin with.

But AFAIC, the fright-of-Liberal-oxygen thing is a petty throwback to bad old ways, and it really belongs more to the extreme liquidate-the-Liberals wing of the NDP (or, for that matter, the more traditional liquidate-the-NDP wing of the Grits).  As I see it, at worst they'd lose as much capital here as the Conservatives did in the Toronto-Danforth byelection--and of course, if a Etobicoke Centre byelection was bunched with several others where the NDP has a greater chance of, at least, overtaking the Liberals, the net "lost political capital" could be more negligible than some are fearing...

But as far as I can see, the "liquidate the Liberals" wing has taken the reins of the party. In the absence of a merger, which I don't see happening for some years, what other mantra could the party leadership adopt?

Everything I've seen from Mulcair suggests he's quite keen on taking power at some point.

Which party doesn't want power?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: canadian1 on August 26, 2012, 01:33:16 PM
I also agree that the NDP would lose political capital in an Etobicoke Centre by-election.

That is, if they had that much political capital there to begin with.

But AFAIC, the fright-of-Liberal-oxygen thing is a petty throwback to bad old ways, and it really belongs more to the extreme liquidate-the-Liberals wing of the NDP (or, for that matter, the more traditional liquidate-the-NDP wing of the Grits).  As I see it, at worst they'd lose as much capital here as the Conservatives did in the Toronto-Danforth byelection--and of course, if a Etobicoke Centre byelection was bunched with several others where the NDP has a greater chance of, at least, overtaking the Liberals, the net "lost political capital" could be more negligible than some are fearing...

But as far as I can see, the "liquidate the Liberals" wing has taken the reins of the party. In the absence of a merger, which I don't see happening for some years, what other mantra could the party leadership adopt?

Everything I've seen from Mulcair suggests he's quite keen on taking power at some point.

Which party doesn't want power?

Exactly--that's why I think the NDP must be pursuing a "liquidate-the-Liberals" strategy. It's their best shot at taking power.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 26, 2012, 08:48:09 PM
Exactly--that's why I think the NDP must be pursuing a "liquidate-the-Liberals" strategy. It's their best shot at taking power.

Except that that sounds a little too much like the Liberals' "liquidate the NDP" strategy of yore.  And it's a little beneath whatever Jack-Layton-farewell-letter principles.

My feeling is: yes, ideally, the NDP (or at least, the party's organizational braintrust) would like to usurp whatever they can of "Lib-left" support--but on their own terms and with a dab of swayable "Con-populist" and mushy-middle support as reinforcement (let's not forget that even a lot of recent Harper voters have been mushy-middle) and by picking their battles carefully and by minimizing embarrassment and injured egos.  So when it comes to Etobicoke Centre, what matters is not that they win; what matters is that they're "still standing" even in the event of a Liberal victory in a seat where, as everybody admits, the odds run heavily against the NDP.  The old "moral victory" thing, I suppose--long an NDP punchline, but actually a good, constructive way to handle loss, treating an election more as a litmus of real-and-potential support than as a raw you-win-or-you-lose proposition.  And it's not unlike what's led the *Conservatives* to power, deconstructing opportunities in apparent no-hope seats, etc.

As I see it, the NDP can absorb an Etobicoke Centre loss...at least as long as they hold close to their 2011 share; and even if not, they might absorb a loss in the same way that Labour in the UK has absorbed being relegated to a depositless third in strict Tory-Lib Dem races.  And of course, it helps if there are several byelections happening at once--now, if an "inevitable " poor third in EC is accompanied by either-or-a-combination-of a reversion to third place in Durham, falling even further back of the Liberals in Calgary Centre, and (the clincher) losing or even nearly-losing Victoria--*then*, cue the alarm bells.

Such a loss-absorption strategy is already in place in Ontario, where an "inevitable" poor third in the upcoming Vaughan byelection looks set to be counterbalanced by the ONDP significantly overachieving in the Kitchener-Waterloo byelection.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: canadian1 on August 26, 2012, 09:19:14 PM
Exactly--that's why I think the NDP must be pursuing a "liquidate-the-Liberals" strategy. It's their best shot at taking power.

Except that that sounds a little too much like the Liberals' "liquidate the NDP" strategy of yore.  And it's a little beneath whatever Jack-Layton-farewell-letter principles.

My feeling is: yes, ideally, the NDP (or at least, the party's organizational braintrust) would like to usurp whatever they can of "Lib-left" support--but on their own terms and with a dab of swayable "Con-populist" and mushy-middle support as reinforcement (let's not forget that even a lot of recent Harper voters have been mushy-middle) and by picking their battles carefully and by minimizing embarrassment and injured egos.  So when it comes to Etobicoke Centre, what matters is not that they win; what matters is that they're "still standing" even in the event of a Liberal victory in a seat where, as everybody admits, the odds run heavily against the NDP.  The old "moral victory" thing, I suppose--long an NDP punchline, but actually a good, constructive way to handle loss, treating an election more as a litmus of real-and-potential support than as a raw you-win-or-you-lose proposition.  And it's not unlike what's led the *Conservatives* to power, deconstructing opportunities in apparent no-hope seats, etc.

As I see it, the NDP can absorb an Etobicoke Centre loss...at least as long as they hold close to their 2011 share; and even if not, they might absorb a loss in the same way that Labour in the UK has absorbed being relegated to a depositless third in strict Tory-Lib Dem races.  And of course, it helps if there are several byelections happening at once--now, if an "inevitable " poor third in EC is accompanied by either-or-a-combination-of a reversion to third place in Durham, falling even further back of the Liberals in Calgary Centre, and (the clincher) losing or even nearly-losing Victoria--*then*, cue the alarm bells.

Such a loss-absorption strategy is already in place in Ontario, where an "inevitable" poor third in the upcoming Vaughan byelection looks set to be counterbalanced by the ONDP significantly overachieving in the Kitchener-Waterloo byelection.


Thorough and insightful as always!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 27, 2012, 12:39:54 PM
Vaughan 2011 provincial map:

()

(Also, introducing my new master key which I used on this map)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on August 27, 2012, 09:28:52 PM
(Also, introducing my new master key which I used on this map)

Me likey.

EDIT: Sorry to be looking a gift horse in the mouth, but any chance you might knock together some orange and green tones as well? Maybe a purple and a yellow, too?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on August 27, 2012, 09:38:22 PM
I think Victoria is pretty safe for the NDP.  The Liberals could theoretically win, but unlikely as in the 90s they had a majority while the NDP was struggling to maintain official party status.  With the NDP now in opposition and Liberals in 3rd, I think it is pretty safe for the NDP.  I expect the Conservatives to take Durham and Calgary Centre.  The main threshold will be do they get over 50% or not.  If they get less than 50% that will be a rebuke.  I think the NDP could have a strong second in Durham, however I think the Liberals would be more likely to win Calgary Centre than the NDP, as an urban riding it is hardly a right wing stronghold, but a business centre with many from the oil business I have a tough believing it would go NDP anytime soon.  In terms of Etobicoke Centre, I agree an NDP win is unlikely.  It is true based on polls the Liberals would probably win it, I am not so sure the Tories wouldn't hold it as they have tended to do better in by-elections than general elections, never mind voter turnout is lower in by-elections than general elections and those on the right are generally more motivated to show up as well as the Tories are strongest amongst those who always show up.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 27, 2012, 10:59:15 PM
(Also, introducing my new master key which I used on this map)

Me likey.

EDIT: Sorry to be looking a gift horse in the mouth, but any chance you might knock together some orange and green tones as well? Maybe a purple and a yellow, too?

()

No purple or yellow, sorry. Will have to wait for a municipal election for that. I know the mayor of Calgary used purple in his election.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on August 27, 2012, 11:02:07 PM
(Also, introducing my new master key which I used on this map)

Me likey.

EDIT: Sorry to be looking a gift horse in the mouth, but any chance you might knock together some orange and green tones as well? Maybe a purple and a yellow, too?

()

No purple or yellow, sorry. Will have to wait for a municipal election for that. I know the mayor of Calgary used purple in his election.

You are brilliant! Thank you!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 28, 2012, 01:54:13 PM
A gal from Elections Manitoba sent me a poll map of Fort Whyte, so expect a map of that as well. (Canadian Election Atlas exclusive!)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 28, 2012, 07:48:57 PM
Vaughan 2011 provincial map:

()

(Also, introducing my new master key which I used on this map)

I wouldn' t mind such Ontario '11 maps with keyed-in poll numbers (no, I don't mean from *you*; just generally, as a convenience)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 28, 2012, 10:43:48 PM
Here's Kitchener-Waterloo:

()

Next is Fort Whyte


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: 2952-0-0 on August 29, 2012, 02:14:56 PM
Speaking of Kitchener Waterloo, it's impossible to listen to more than ten minutes of radio without an ad from either the Liberals (OMG TEH TORIES OUT TO KILL OUR TEACHERS!1!!), NDP (OMG BOTH TEH PARTIES IDENTICAL!!1!), or PCs (OMG TEH LIBS DROWNING UR KIDS IN DEBT!!1!1).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 29, 2012, 02:40:36 PM
Speaking of Kitchener Waterloo, it's impossible to listen to more than ten minutes of radio without an ad from either the Liberals (OMG TEH TORIES OUT TO KILL OUR TEACHERS!1!!), NDP (OMG BOTH TEH PARTIES IDENTICAL!!1!), or PCs (OMG TEH LIBS DROWNING UR KIDS IN DEBT!!1!1).

This is a big stakes by-election.

Should we be expecting record by-election turnout? Maybe 40... dare I say 50%?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on August 29, 2012, 06:52:02 PM
Speaking of Kitchener Waterloo, it's impossible to listen to more than ten minutes of radio without an ad from either the Liberals (OMG TEH TORIES OUT TO KILL OUR TEACHERS!1!!), NDP (OMG BOTH TEH PARTIES IDENTICAL!!1!), or PCs (OMG TEH LIBS DROWNING UR KIDS IN DEBT!!1!1).

Are the Liberals actually running ads saying that the Tories are out to kill "our teachers"??? Right now the teachers are all up in arms that its the Liberals who are hitting them with a two by four! There are literally bus loads of teachers going to Waterloo to help the NDP because they all hate Mcguinty so much now.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: 2952-0-0 on August 29, 2012, 11:05:42 PM
Speaking of Kitchener Waterloo, it's impossible to listen to more than ten minutes of radio without an ad from either the Liberals (OMG TEH TORIES OUT TO KILL OUR TEACHERS!1!!), NDP (OMG BOTH TEH PARTIES IDENTICAL!!1!), or PCs (OMG TEH LIBS DROWNING UR KIDS IN DEBT!!1!1).

Are the Liberals actually running ads saying that the Tories are out to kill "our teachers"??? Right now the teachers are all up in arms that its the Liberals who are hitting them with a two by four! There are literally bus loads of teachers going to Waterloo to help the NDP because they all hate Mcguinty so much now.

The Liberals have been making subtle reminders of Mike Harris and reminding voters they can somehow defend public services and...do something...about the deficit.

But I've also heard a radio ad by a teachers union, asking you if you like kids, and therefore do you want Ontario to continue having the best school system in the English-speaking world, and therefore don't you think hurting teachers is against that.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: canadian1 on August 30, 2012, 08:19:31 PM
Speaking of Kitchener Waterloo, it's impossible to listen to more than ten minutes of radio without an ad from either the Liberals (OMG TEH TORIES OUT TO KILL OUR TEACHERS!1!!), NDP (OMG BOTH TEH PARTIES IDENTICAL!!1!), or PCs (OMG TEH LIBS DROWNING UR KIDS IN DEBT!!1!1).

Are the Liberals actually running ads saying that the Tories are out to kill "our teachers"??? Right now the teachers are all up in arms that its the Liberals who are hitting them with a two by four! There are literally bus loads of teachers going to Waterloo to help the NDP because they all hate Mcguinty so much now.

The Liberals couldn't have been more generous to teachers for 9 straight years. I have yet to hear a convincing argument why teachers (or anyone else) should be able to bank sick days.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 30, 2012, 09:48:35 PM
Something tells me this "war on teachers" biz is playing right into NDP hands in K-W--and the only reason why it's not registering with the Libs + Tories is the old "aah, look at the 2011 results: the NDP can't win" fallback...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: canadian1 on August 30, 2012, 10:45:02 PM
Something tells me this "war on teachers" biz is playing right into NDP hands in K-W--and the only reason why it's not registering with the Libs + Tories is the old "aah, look at the 2011 results: the NDP can't win" fallback...

That riding poll from some time ago ought to have set them straight--it had the NDP a close second.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on August 31, 2012, 06:26:16 AM
Speaking of Kitchener Waterloo, it's impossible to listen to more than ten minutes of radio without an ad from either the Liberals (OMG TEH TORIES OUT TO KILL OUR TEACHERS!1!!), NDP (OMG BOTH TEH PARTIES IDENTICAL!!1!), or PCs (OMG TEH LIBS DROWNING UR KIDS IN DEBT!!1!1).

Are the Liberals actually running ads saying that the Tories are out to kill "our teachers"??? Right now the teachers are all up in arms that its the Liberals who are hitting them with a two by four! There are literally bus loads of teachers going to Waterloo to help the NDP because they all hate Mcguinty so much now.

The Liberals couldn't have been more generous to teachers for 9 straight years. I have yet to hear a convincing argument why teachers (or anyone else) should be able to bank sick days.

The Liberals played politics for 9years... and now they are playing politics again. Anyway, banking is arguable... the problem is, if you ask teachers is not the freeze but the fact that this bill violates their rights of collective bargaining, which a number of lawyers have come out saying they will fight this and the gov't might lose over pieces of the bill that aren't talked about. Wages and sick days make all the headlines.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: canadian1 on August 31, 2012, 06:45:26 PM
Speaking of Kitchener Waterloo, it's impossible to listen to more than ten minutes of radio without an ad from either the Liberals (OMG TEH TORIES OUT TO KILL OUR TEACHERS!1!!), NDP (OMG BOTH TEH PARTIES IDENTICAL!!1!), or PCs (OMG TEH LIBS DROWNING UR KIDS IN DEBT!!1!1).

Are the Liberals actually running ads saying that the Tories are out to kill "our teachers"??? Right now the teachers are all up in arms that its the Liberals who are hitting them with a two by four! There are literally bus loads of teachers going to Waterloo to help the NDP because they all hate Mcguinty so much now.

The Liberals couldn't have been more generous to teachers for 9 straight years. I have yet to hear a convincing argument why teachers (or anyone else) should be able to bank sick days.

The Liberals played politics for 9years... and now they are playing politics again. Anyway, banking is arguable... the problem is, if you ask teachers is not the freeze but the fact that this bill violates their rights of collective bargaining, which a number of lawyers have come out saying they will fight this and the gov't might lose over pieces of the bill that aren't talked about. Wages and sick days make all the headlines.


Why did ETFO's leader walk away from the negotiating table in February? If they care so much about their right to collective bargaining, you'd think they would have made a strenuous effort to bargain collectively from the get-go.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 31, 2012, 07:51:52 PM
Argh Elections Manitoba sent me the new poll map of Ft Whyte being used for the by-election, instead of the last election. It appears to be very different, as there are some new developments in the south part of the riding which account for I think 5 new polls. But there are other shifts as well that I'm trying to figure out. Hopefully I can get a map up, but it's mostly all blue except for two polls that the NDP tied.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on August 31, 2012, 09:24:00 PM
Something tells me this "war on teachers" biz is playing right into NDP hands in K-W--and the only reason why it's not registering with the Libs + Tories is the old "aah, look at the 2011 results: the NDP can't win" fallback...

That riding poll from some time ago ought to have set them straight--it had the NDP a close second.

"Rogue poll".  "Unrepresentative sample".  "Not consistent with 2011 patterns".  When it comes to finding convenient alibis, where there's a will, there's a way.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on September 01, 2012, 04:54:06 PM
Hard to tell there's even an election in Vaughan aside from some signs here and there, and no signs of the NDP either. Expected, though.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 01, 2012, 10:28:05 PM
by-election round up:

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/09/provincial-by-elections-next-week-fort.html


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on September 04, 2012, 09:05:55 PM
In the another election (by-election)  tonite:

Fort-Whyte, Manitoba

With 50/54 polls

Pallister, Brian (PC) 2,450 (New PC Leader)
Axworthy, Bob (LIB) 1,620
Schmidt, Brandy (NDP) 548
Benham, Donnie H. J. (GPM) 94
Ackman, Darrell (Ind) 16

Rejected 5
Votes Cast 4,7333
Registerered Voters 15,560
Turnout 30.42%


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 04, 2012, 09:12:35 PM
Are the provincial Liberals having some sort of rebound in Manitoba?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on September 04, 2012, 09:38:13 PM
Are the provincial Liberals having some sort of rebound in Manitoba?
Nope.
The Liberal candidate has name recognition (his older brother Llyod was a Liberal Federal cabinet minister)
He is also the only candidate to actually live in the riding. The other candidates live nearby.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on September 04, 2012, 11:38:38 PM
Final results

Fort-Whyte, Manitoba

With 54/54 polls  (Unoffical)

Pallister, Brian (PC) 3,626 (New PC Leader) - 55.1%
Axworthy, Bob (LIB) 2,074 - 31.5%
Schmidt, Brandy (NDP) 739 - 11.2%
Benham, Donnie H. J. (GPM) 113 - 1.7%
Ackman, Darrell (Ind) 19 - 0.3%

Rejected 8
Votes Cast 6,579
Registerered Voters 15,560
Turnout 52.28%


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on September 05, 2012, 06:39:14 AM
Are the provincial Liberals having some sort of rebound in Manitoba?
Nope.
The Liberal candidate has name recognition (his older brother Llyod was a Liberal Federal cabinet minister)
He is also the only candidate to actually live in the riding. The other candidates live nearby.


Also the Liberals have some history in the riding; outside of '11 where they only managed 7%, in 07 they had 14%, 05 by-election 21%, 03 was 19%... so no "stellar" but very good for the MAN Liberals i think. Demographics play into that 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on September 05, 2012, 07:09:03 AM
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1251330--ndp-is-on-track-to-win-kitchener-waterloo-by-election-poll-suggests#.UEc1g-GJ3cs.facebook

Forum Poll has the NDP@42%, OLP & PCs both at 26%

Really? i'm impressed, i've been hearing that the NDP has just had a stellar campaign... but 42%! i bought IF the NDP were to win that it would be over 40%, i find that high even for a by-election in a riding what only once held by the CCF! (43-45)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 05, 2012, 07:37:00 AM
Forum was hinting towards a surprise (I assumed it meant an NDP lead) but whoa. That poll has me creaming my pants :D (Said that to bug Hash, he told me he's going to avoid by-election talk because of all of us dipper hacks :) )


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on September 05, 2012, 07:49:32 AM
Forum was hinting towards a surprise (I assumed it meant an NDP lead) but whoa. That poll has me creaming my pants :D (Said that to bug Hash, he told me he's going to avoid by-election talk because of all of us dipper hacks :) )

why should that stop him? he should talk up Vaughan in that case then :P

The OLP Needs to win Vaughan now... and thats the race they can win, so at least they can come out with no losses, and the PCs have the bloodiest nose with a 1 less seat and a by-election loss


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 05, 2012, 08:58:38 AM
Frankly, I don't mind if the Tories win Vaughan.

But the poll does prove that Vaughan is still a safe Liberal riding. Fantino winning is just based on his popularity.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 05, 2012, 02:48:21 PM
The greatest thing about that Forum poll is it has the Tories and the Liberals TIED for second, meaning strategic anti-NDP voters wont know who to chose to stop the orange tide.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on September 05, 2012, 08:30:20 PM
But the poll does prove that Vaughan is still a safe Liberal riding. Fantino winning is just based on his popularity.

*And* the fact that he was technically "incumbent" in 2011 (thanks to the byelection), and the Liberals at large were in disarray.  Were it Fantino vs an incumbent Bevilacqua, it would have been much closer.

Oh, and re Kitchener-Waterloo: go back to some of my posts 'way earlier in this thread, pin-pricking assumptions that the seat was "too yuppie/high-tech/affluent" for anything other than a Tory/Liberal race.  Look: when I said the last federal result was "skewed by Telegdi", I meant it, I really meant it.  And, now you know what I was getting at.

And altogether, it's worth considering that this lowly provincial byelection might be, by proxy, the first *real* test of the Orange Crush's resilience and "potential for growth"...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: LastVoter on September 05, 2012, 10:28:28 PM
But the poll does prove that Vaughan is still a safe Liberal riding. Fantino winning is just based on his popularity.

*And* the fact that he was technically "incumbent" in 2011 (thanks to the byelection), and the Liberals at large were in disarray.  Were it Fantino vs an incumbent Bevilacqua, it would have been much closer.

Oh, and re Kitchener-Waterloo: go back to some of my posts 'way earlier in this thread, pin-pricking assumptions that the seat was "too yuppie/high-tech/affluent" for anything other than a Tory/Liberal race.  Look: when I said the last federal result was "skewed by Telegdi", I meant it, I really meant it.  And, now you know what I was getting at.

And altogether, it's worth considering that this lowly provincial byelection might be, by proxy, the first *real* test of the Orange Crush's resilience and "potential for growth"...
Isn't Kitchner-Waterloo a university seat though?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on September 06, 2012, 12:30:15 AM
The greatest thing about that Forum poll is it has the Tories and the Liberals TIED for second, meaning strategic anti-NDP voters wont know who to chose to stop the orange tide.

Is there even such a thing as a "strategic anti-NDP voter" anymore? Especially in a by election situation


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on September 06, 2012, 12:57:42 AM
The greatest thing about that Forum poll is it has the Tories and the Liberals TIED for second, meaning strategic anti-NDP voters wont know who to chose to stop the orange tide.

Is there even such a thing as a "strategic anti-NDP voter" anymore? Especially in a by election situation

Yes, but the strategic anti-PC voter and the strategic anti-Liberal voter also exist.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on September 06, 2012, 07:23:24 AM
Isn't Kitchner-Waterloo a university seat though?

It is; but even that's been used as an anti-NDP argument in the past, pointing at Liberal wins and near-wins in Guelph, Kingston, London NC etc...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 06, 2012, 07:27:48 AM
I suppose it's fair to say that students vote NDP, grads vote Liberal?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: 2952-0-0 on September 06, 2012, 08:17:19 PM
Thanks to Teddy:

KW live results: http://electionnightresults.elections.on.ca/rr/ro?code=039

Vaughan live results: http://electionnightresults.elections.on.ca/rr/ro?code=097 #vaughan


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 06, 2012, 08:24:50 PM
Man, Elections Ontario's website is ass.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 06, 2012, 08:29:39 PM
I was wondering where the results were. Thank god for this site!

Still really close in Kitchener-Waterloo 1% separates the Tories and NDP with 8 polls in.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: 2952-0-0 on September 06, 2012, 08:31:42 PM
It's too bad I moved out of the KW riding two weeks ago.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 06, 2012, 08:32:53 PM
NDP now leading by 17 votes :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hash on September 06, 2012, 08:34:44 PM
Looking bad :(


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 06, 2012, 08:37:06 PM
My prediction: narrow NDP pickup. Not that it matters because someone always ducks in the game of chicken between Grits and Dippers. Plus Hudak blew a ridiculously open goal last year, I wouldn't want him to hit the trail anytime soon.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 06, 2012, 08:37:52 PM

Ha! I thought you were going to avoid this place tonight ;)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: 2952-0-0 on September 06, 2012, 08:40:27 PM
Most pathetic was Tim Hudak insisting KW was a "Witmer seat" and not a "PC seat". If anything, a halfway decent PC leader would naturally hold this seat.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 06, 2012, 08:41:41 PM
Fife now at 46% :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 06, 2012, 08:48:05 PM
Forget "narrow", this is a Dipper romp. Congrats to Hatman and other resident Dippers. Cue round of PC leadership speculation starting tomorrow.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hash on September 06, 2012, 08:52:12 PM
This kind of reminds me of those QC by-elections in 2001 or 2002 where the ADQ swept basically everything and went from like 10-15% to winning with 50ish%.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 06, 2012, 08:55:38 PM
Hash, I should warn you I am splooging on the keyboard right now ;) ;) ;)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: ObserverIE on September 06, 2012, 08:59:32 PM
After 75/265 polls, John Turmel (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Turmel) has 1 vote in Kitchener.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 06, 2012, 09:00:36 PM
lol @ Turmel

BTW guys, it's official. Teddy has called it for the NDP


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: 2952-0-0 on September 06, 2012, 09:02:19 PM
FWIW, CTV calls KW for Fife.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: ObserverIE on September 06, 2012, 09:02:58 PM
After 86 polls, Turmel doubles his vote. He's on a roll...

Update: 97 polls and he's doubled it again. Did CTV call too early? ;D


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on September 06, 2012, 09:03:59 PM
Well, credit where due: excellent result for Fife and the party, obviously. I'll admit I didn't start out thinking it was likely.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: 2952-0-0 on September 06, 2012, 09:05:59 PM
In the last few days, there were "No McGuinty, Not This Time" signs springing like mushrooms. No party officially backed this campaign. It sounds rather fishy.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: 2952-0-0 on September 06, 2012, 09:08:10 PM
Back of the envelope calculations put total votes in KW at 40000, putting voter turnout at 40% or so. Not bad for a byelection.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on September 06, 2012, 09:09:58 PM
I suppose it's fair to say that students vote NDP, grads vote Liberal?

More like: professors and related egghead types voted Ignatieff in '11.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 06, 2012, 09:14:40 PM
Back of the envelope calculations put total votes in KW at 40000, putting voter turnout at 40% or so. Not bad for a byelection.

Should be higher, I think. Then again, this is Ontario provincial politics.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hash on September 06, 2012, 09:19:54 PM
OK, congrats NDP. Anything which gives a black eye to Tim Hudak is fine by me, even if this is terrible.

()


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on September 06, 2012, 09:33:04 PM
I hope someone creates a wiki article for Fife so that she has a chance to win reelection.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 06, 2012, 09:39:43 PM
I hope someone creates a wiki article for Fife so that she has a chance to win reelection.

Someone got on that: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_Fife


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on September 06, 2012, 09:47:23 PM
Hash, I should warn you I am splooging on the keyboard right now ;) ;) ;)

Well, Fife *is* a bit of a cutie, though that sounds like an overreaction;)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hash on September 06, 2012, 10:10:18 PM
Nice job, Tim Hudak!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on September 06, 2012, 10:29:22 PM
I suppose one can claim Vaughan as a more sobering NDP result--though by post-Rae, pre-Orange Crush standards, for them to float to 11% in a byelection seat like that would be astronomical.  (NB: in the 1991 byelection that returned Sorbara to Queen's Park, the NDP got 1.97%.  Green got 2.10%.  And then there's the federal Fantino byelection to consider...)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: 2952-0-0 on September 06, 2012, 11:11:35 PM
At least Dalton spoke publicly tonight about the need to work with other parties. Hudak hasn't been seen in public all night, but he did issue a written statement blaming the unions for concentrating their resources into one riding. What a sore loser. If I were a PC caucus member I'll be preparing to stage a coup based on that statement alone.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 07, 2012, 06:11:06 AM
Genuinely impressive result.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on September 07, 2012, 06:16:24 AM
So Forum wasn't that far off then; it ended up being a battle (In KW) of the opposition with NDP 39%, PC 31% and OLP 24%... love to see a poll results map :)




Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on September 07, 2012, 07:12:56 AM
With the Tories not able to increase their vote shares at all in Kitchener-Waterloo and Vaughan, and gouverning Liberals losing support in a riding they were "supposed" to win, maybe this is the beginning of a turning point. Just maybe the stars are starting to align for Horwath. Don't mean to sound like J.J. or Sam, but there you have it.

Hash, I should warn you I am splooging on the keyboard right now ;) ;) ;)

Well, Fife *is* a bit of a cutie, though that sounds like an overreaction;)

Gross.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Poirot on September 13, 2012, 07:49:41 PM
As Denis Coderre said he will announce on November 9 his choice (he will either run for Liberal leadership or Montreal mayorship), La Presse is reporting than NDP is already searching a star candidate to run in Bourassa in the resulting by-election. NDP seems to be sure than he will choose the mayorship.

Funny story. A man, a former federal Liberal candidate, wrote on twitter that he was interested in meeting Mulcair because he was interested in running in Bourassa for the NDP. He left his number. He thought he was sending a private message to Mulcair. Oops. I doubt he will be the one chosen.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on September 13, 2012, 11:30:14 PM
As Denis Coderre said he will announce on November 9 his choice (he will either run for Liberal leadership or Montreal mayorship), La Presse is reporting than NDP is already searching a star candidate to run in Bourassa in the resulting by-election. NDP seems to be sure than he will choose the mayorship.

Funny story. A man, a former federal Liberal candidate, wrote on twitter that he was interested in meeting Mulcair because he was interested in running in Bourassa for the NDP. He left his number. He thought he was sending a private message to Mulcair. Oops. I doubt he will be the one chosen.

More than a former liberal, but a former President of the Quebec section of Liberal Party of Canada.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 14, 2012, 07:29:40 PM
Old news by now, but I made a map of the Toronto-Danforth by-election

()


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on September 14, 2012, 08:04:20 PM
Great work! To which neighbourhoods do those areas of support correspond? I assume the areas of support are unsurprising, but is that an accurate assumption to make?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 14, 2012, 08:23:07 PM
From my site:

()


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Kevinstat on September 14, 2012, 10:19:01 PM
Has the (Canadian) Supreme Court ruled on the appeal in Etobicoke Centre (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Etobicoke_Centre_(electoral_district)) yet?  Is Ted Opitz still serving as an MP?  That would be an interesting by-election.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on September 14, 2012, 11:39:09 PM
No ruling yet, Opitz is still MP.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on September 17, 2012, 12:15:18 PM
Not sure where to place this... but after the By-elections looks like polls are even worse for the Liberals...

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/09/17/ndp-support-soars-while-liberals-plummets-poll?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=recommend-button&utm_campaign=NDP+support+soars+while+Liberals%27+plummets%3A+Poll

NDP 36% PC 35% OLP 22% ...Based on these figures, Forum projects a seat count of PCs, 48; Liberals, 30; and NDP, 29"... The NDP loses out since the vote is badly distributed, i suspect heavily centred in TO, other cities (Hamilton, Windsor, London, Ottawa) and the north, possibly seats in SWON too.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on September 17, 2012, 04:51:20 PM
Victoria By-election...
The NDP have three running for the nomination:
- Charley Beresford (former School Board trustee, two time provincial candidate, director of the Columbia institute)
- Murray Rankin (Lawyer, environmental law expert, some big green credential backers)
- Elizabeth Cull (former deputy premier and finance minister, business owner, panelist)

Liberals:
- Paul Summerville (fmr NDP candidate in St. Paul in 06, economist)

Greens:
- have a nomination race going on, biggest name is Donald Galloway (Director of law school a UVic)

Tories:
- i haven't read anything from them.

Still NDP win i think... but depends on who the NDP nominates; some say Rankin is the Green NDP vote, Cull is the more old guard (but much needed cabinet experience); i'd like to see a woman win since the field is pretty deep both female candidates have elected experience but (not knowing much about Cull) on paper she seems like the better choice.
Any BC'ers input here?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on September 17, 2012, 07:26:10 PM
Summerville losing would make me feel nice inside.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on September 17, 2012, 08:26:51 PM
NDP 36% PC 35% OLP 22% ...Based on these figures, Forum projects a seat count of PCs, 48; Liberals, 30; and NDP, 29"... The NDP loses out since the vote is badly distributed, i suspect heavily centred in TO, other cities (Hamilton, Windsor, London, Ottawa) and the north, possibly seats in SWON too.

I put little credence on that Forum projected seat count, since it likely hinges upon an awkward "uniform swing" model--which, if based upon 2011 results, would mean that Kitchener-Waterloo would be nowhere near that magic 29.  (Remember that the apparent NDP "bad distribution" is the result of their concentrating their past electoral resources in a handful of "winnable" seats--which may well top out at 29 or so.)

My suspicion is that if the NDP's in that polling stratosphere, a lot more seats are drawn into their orbit than it may appear--and the Liberals are flirting with losing official party status...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on September 18, 2012, 06:17:15 AM
It would have been much better for Forum to have regional breakdowns, that would give us some idea of what they meant by poor distribution.
If this becomes a persistent trend (like it is federally, strong NDP numbers, tied or very close to the NDP) i suspect your right adma, the NDP would indeed expand their resources beyond their primary targets and target ridings that would have been considered best-case wins, like Kitchener-Waterloo.

In the end its bad news all around for the Liberals, but also brings to debate the issue of if Dalton resigned would that change liberal fortunes?



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on September 18, 2012, 04:20:53 PM
I would be willing to bet my life savings that if the ONDP gets 36% of the vote in the next Ontario election and the Liberals get reduced to 22% - the NDP will have MORE seats than the Liberals wayyyy more.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 18, 2012, 05:45:48 PM
The obvious thing to mention, really, would be 1990.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on September 19, 2012, 11:34:34 AM
The obvious thing to mention, really, would be 1990.

1990 results: NDP 37.6%, OLP 32.4%, PC 23.5% ... look familiar eh (except switch the OLP and PCs)... so we know the NDP can form majority governments with under 40% as long as the two other parties can sustain their support above 20%


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on September 19, 2012, 08:23:22 PM
I would be willing to bet my life savings that if the ONDP gets 36% of the vote in the next Ontario election and the Liberals get reduced to 22% - the NDP will have MORE seats than the Liberals wayyyy more.

And Dalton's left looking like this

()


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: canadian1 on September 20, 2012, 04:34:35 PM
I would be willing to bet my life savings that if the ONDP gets 36% of the vote in the next Ontario election and the Liberals get reduced to 22% - the NDP will have MORE seats than the Liberals wayyyy more.

And Dalton's left looking like this

()

Clever.

I agree that that seat projection is wildly off the mark. Was there any sort of regional breakdown of those polling numbers? If not, it's almost impossible to believe those seat figures--not that I'm entirely convinced that Forum's popular-vote picture will hold up in a general-election situation.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on October 21, 2012, 11:14:33 AM
The Prime Minister has called 3 by-elections for Nov 26th
 - Victoria
 - Calgary-Centre
  - Durham

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/10/21/pol-november-26-by-elections.html

Meanwhile on Thursday, we will get the decision on the the court challenge on the results of Etobicoke-Centre


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on October 21, 2012, 03:41:09 PM
I thought we were supposed to get a decision on that by the end of July or August. Months ago.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 21, 2012, 03:44:20 PM
The NDP seems to be ignoring Durham or Calgary as they have yet to have nominated candidates in either riding


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on October 21, 2012, 03:54:20 PM
NDP candidate in Durham is likely to be Larry O'Connor(former MPP, Brock township mayor), and it's between Dan Meades (poverty activist), Brian Malkinson (former candidate in Calgary North West in the provincial election) and Matthew McMillan (some guy? (http://www.facebook.com/McMillan4Calgary/)) in Calgary Centre. Well, we're not winning the latter, but I guess I would support Meades.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/10/more-by-election-candidate-news/


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 21, 2012, 04:17:04 PM
ooh O'Connor would be great


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DC Al Fine on October 21, 2012, 07:09:18 PM
Who's the Tory candidate in Durham?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on October 21, 2012, 08:31:16 PM

Erin O'Toole, an Heenan Blaikie corporate lawyer.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on October 22, 2012, 06:34:06 AM
...and son of MPP John O'Toole.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on October 22, 2012, 06:39:58 AM

O'Conner is exactly the candidate the NDP needs... it would the the highest profile candidate, a former MPP and Mayor, i don't think the NDP can not invest in this riding. It would be a huge steal and if the NDP managed to get 30+ that would be a huge victory in a strong suburban/rural Tory riding.

Oh Murray Rankin is the NDP candidate in Victoria, he had loads of local support (many MLAs came out for him)... i would have liked to see Cull been the candidate as she was a former finance minister and if the NDP wants to build a gov't in waiting they need experienced candidates. But i read she just didn't have the ground game.

Calgary Centre... Isn't Joan Crawfford (sp?) running? she's got a name but very polarizing... i don't see many moderates supporting her; CC is probably the home of most moderates but ya any win by the NDP or Liberals (any candidate there?) would be a huge surprise... but crazier things have happened.



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 22, 2012, 06:52:52 AM
Wait. Brock isn't even in the riding. Why would O'Connor run then?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on October 22, 2012, 07:25:06 AM
Wait. Brock isn't even in the riding. Why would O'Connor run then?

About half of it looks to be in the riding; the southern portion of the township is in Durham, the Northern part is in York-Simcoe... unless i'm looking at that wrong


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 22, 2012, 08:25:54 AM
You must be. Durham consists solely of Uxbridge, Scugog and Clarington. No Brock.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on October 22, 2012, 09:04:47 AM
Scandal.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on October 22, 2012, 11:23:41 AM
You must be. Durham consists solely of Uxbridge, Scugog and Clarington. No Brock.

Well, some can argue than the proposed redistricting for Ontario puts Brock, Uxbridge and Scugog in same riding, with Haliburton and parts of Algonquin Park, so it streches far.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on October 22, 2012, 03:57:31 PM
You must be. Durham consists solely of Uxbridge, Scugog and Clarington. No Brock.

My bad, Brock is in Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-BROCK... simple enough right :P

His reasoning might be the riding he represented in 90 was Durham-York and when you compare the two  boundaries i believe only Uxbridge overlaps... still kind of a stretch but on paper he sounds like a good candidate. For ridings like this, stretching might be needed to get good candidates



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 22, 2012, 05:34:58 PM
A good launching pad for possible redistribution?

It should be noted that Uxbridge was in the riding that he represented in provincial parliament. If you take a look at what municipalities that riding covered, and the fact that the NDP won there... wow.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on October 23, 2012, 07:12:54 AM
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1275508--hebert-federal-byelections-could-be-game-changers#.UIaDPoEBfGU.facebook

"On that score, any backlash over Harper’s take-no-prisoners approach to parliamentary debate should logically benefit the NDP.

The federal Liberals, whose governing cousins have summarily shut down the legislatures of Ontario and B.C., are in a poor position to give lessons in parliamentary democracy this fall."

If anyone else it to win Durham and Calgary Centre its probably going to be the NDP...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 23, 2012, 09:46:35 PM
O'Connor wins the nomination in Durham. Dan Meades wins in Calgary Centre.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on October 25, 2012, 08:55:47 AM
Supreme Court of Canada overturns lower courts decsion on By-Election in Etobicoke Centre.

Ted Opitz remains the Conservative MP for Etobicoke Centre
No need for a By-Election


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 25, 2012, 11:28:38 AM
:(

4-3 decision with the Chief Justice dissenting. Lebel and Fish joined her dissent. Interesting. I thought McLaughlin was more of a conservative leaning CJ.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DC Al Fine on October 25, 2012, 11:40:54 AM
Supreme Court of Canada overturns lower courts decsion on By-Election in Etobicoke Centre.

Ted Opitz remains the Conservative MP for Etobicoke Centre
No need for a By-Election

*Breathes sigh of relief*


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on October 25, 2012, 05:53:42 PM
Haha. Well, the Liberals don't need the press or momentum (albeit, artificial) that comes from winning a by-election against the gouverning party. I respect this decision though. I think Elections Canada should be the final say in the matter, not our courts. We're not the United States, here.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on October 25, 2012, 07:21:49 PM
Haha. Well, the Liberals don't need the press or momentum (albeit, artificial) that comes from winning a by-election against the gouverning party. I respect this decision though. I think Elections Canada should be the final say in the matter, not our courts. We're not the United States, here.

Indeed, a by-election win by the Liberals would have the media asking questions of "has the orange crush receded under Mulcair?" and that sort of thing.

I'm fine with the Courts being able to overturn election results, where electoral law has been clearly broken, but I think the burden of proof must really lie with the party trying to have the results overturned, to prove that the electoral outcome was affected (not merely "could have been" affected).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 31, 2012, 08:46:36 PM
Dippers eyeing Bourassa for when Coderre vacates it next year.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/10/31/new-democrats-already-sizing-up-denis-coderres-riding/


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on October 31, 2012, 09:31:11 PM
Is that really surprising for someone?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on November 01, 2012, 07:14:21 AM
A win there could shut the media up about this Trudeau suuuuuuuuurge! Actually, it wouldn't.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on November 01, 2012, 07:08:27 PM
A win there could shut the media up about this Trudeau suuuuuuuuurge! Actually, it wouldn't.

A swing away from the Liberals could potentially have the media talking about how "new Liberal leader Justin Trudeau has failed to stem the outgoing tide in his home province of Quebec..."


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 02, 2012, 10:38:14 AM
Will the Liberals be running a star candidate in Bourassa?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 02, 2012, 11:27:54 AM
I'd assume Coderre has some people in mind, no idea as to whether they're "stars" or not.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 09, 2012, 09:26:45 AM
Them Reds aren't happy with Crockatt as Calgary Centre's next MP, from Redford on down.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/08/wildrose-and-progressive-conservatives-divided-over-nominee-for-calgary-federal-riding/


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: King of Kensington on November 15, 2012, 02:02:50 AM
https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/15603_Durham_Calgary__Victoria_By-Elections_%28Forum_Research%29_%2820121113%29.pdf

Indeed, if this poll is accurate...the Conservatives could lose in Calgary!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 15, 2012, 02:05:11 AM
23% for the Greens in Calgary. Sure....


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 15, 2012, 08:14:20 AM
Crap poll from the same people who said Wildrose and the PQ would win thumping majorities.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 15, 2012, 11:12:13 AM
Crap poll from the same people who said Wildrose and the PQ would win thumping majorities.

Uhh... I wouldn't discount Forum Research. After all, everyone predicted the WR would win, and FR was the only pollster to catch a last minute switch to the PCs.

FR did a good job with the provincial by-election in Waterloo.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 15, 2012, 12:06:27 PM
Crap poll from the same people who said Wildrose and the PQ would win thumping majorities.

Uhh... I wouldn't discount Forum Research. After all, everyone predicted the WR would win, and FR was the only pollster to catch a last minute switch to the PCs.

FR did a good job with the provincial by-election in Waterloo.

Greens, 20+% in Calgary. Sure they might be right, but that result has no other polls to back it up and is incredibly wacky. I'll stay skeptical for now.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 15, 2012, 12:12:34 PM
Crap poll from the same people who said Wildrose and the PQ would win thumping majorities.

Uhh... I wouldn't discount Forum Research. After all, everyone predicted the WR would win, and FR was the only pollster to catch a last minute switch to the PCs.

FR did a good job with the provincial by-election in Waterloo.

Greens, 20+% in Calgary. Sure they might be right, but that result has no other polls to back it up and is incredibly wacky. I'll stay skeptical for now.

They also have the Greens in 2nd place in Victoria, which is rather fun.

The Liberals winning Calgary Centre is not unfathomable. This is a by-election after all, and the riding includes a safe provincial Liberal seat (Calgary Buffalo).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on November 15, 2012, 03:43:12 PM
I'm very sceptical about that poll. It could see the Tories losing Calgary Centre if there was a two way race and the opposition vote consolidated behind one candidate - kind of like the way the NDP won Edmonton-Strathcona in 2008 and again in 2011 where it was literally 43% NDP 42%CPC and with the Libs and Greens in low single digits. When the Reform Party lost Calgary Centre to Joe Clark in 2000 it was also a two way race where the Liberal and NDP vote literally evaporated and consolidated behind Joe Clark

But I cannot see the Conservative vote in Calgary Centre falling as low as 32% where they could lose in a four way race with even the NDP in the teens. I think that the Tory "floor" in Calgary Centre is probably about 40% and this poll has them way too low.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 15, 2012, 03:47:36 PM
The record of Canadian riding polls isn't any better than that of British constituency polls, so... er...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 15, 2012, 04:44:34 PM
Crap poll from the same people who said Wildrose and the PQ would win thumping majorities.

Well, the problem with their Quebec polls were wierd assumptions in their results, like the one which give Liberals leading in Northern suburbs of Montreal (did they won more than a seat there since the 70's?).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on November 15, 2012, 07:30:44 PM
I'm very sceptical about that poll. It could see the Tories losing Calgary Centre if there was a two way race and the opposition vote consolidated behind one candidate - kind of like the way the NDP won Edmonton-Strathcona in 2008 and again in 2011 where it was literally 43% NDP 42%CPC and with the Libs and Greens in low single digits. When the Reform Party lost Calgary Centre to Joe Clark in 2000 it was also a two way race where the Liberal and NDP vote literally evaporated and consolidated behind Joe Clark

But I cannot see the Conservative vote in Calgary Centre falling as low as 32% where they could lose in a four way race with even the NDP in the teens. I think that the Tory "floor" in Calgary Centre is probably about 40% and this poll has them way too low.

Then again, it's Calgary Centre.  And unlike 2000, we're dealing w/a governing party to protest against (even w/a native-son leader)--and echoing the provincial scene hereabouts, the Grits may well be a reasonable parking lot for "Red Tory" voters.

I also wonder whether Joe Clark might have done even better vs the Alliance in 2000 had he not been pre-judged a loser in a lost cause...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on November 15, 2012, 07:33:05 PM
So... Greens voters in Calgary Centre...

37% aged 35-44 said they'd vote Green, compared to just 25% aged 18-24. Those aged 45-54 were also more likely to vote Green than the younger cohort (32%).

40% of those earning between $80k and $100k also said they'd vote Green.

NDP getting nailed - only 36% of those who voted NDP in the General Election said they would vote NDP in the by-election. Almost as many (34%) said they'd vote Green instead.

I don't think the poll is accurate, personally, but I could be wrong.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 15, 2012, 08:11:48 PM
They'll probably do another one closer to the election.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on November 15, 2012, 11:04:06 PM

Then again, it's Calgary Centre.  And unlike 2000, we're dealing w/a governing party to protest against (even w/a native-son leader)--

Yes, but in case you haven't noticed Harper and the Conservatives seem to be very popular in Alberta...also while the riding is called Calgary Centre, its not as "inner city" as you might think. First of all the west half of the riding is actually a very wealthy old money area that is rock ribbed Tory and the more downtown area has a lot of very expensive condos...this is Calgary after all - everything is pretty upscale.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: King of Kensington on November 15, 2012, 11:43:46 PM
Yeah it's hard to believe...but it could be a "Joe Clark" type situation.  It is the most progressive riding in Calgary.

However I expect if the Liberals actually do take it they're likely to read too much into it and see it as evidence as Trudeau-mania and how only they not the NDP can win etc.  I could imagine CC as a "Lib Dem" type seat in a "UK style" parliament.




Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 16, 2012, 12:15:04 AM
The Liberals did quite well in the area in the 2008 provincial election, perhaps even winning the most votes on the federal boundaries. But, that was their best election in the city.

FWIW, the area was also a strong Nenshi area in the mayoral election. And we're talking municipal election type turnout...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DL on November 16, 2012, 02:11:21 AM
Yeah it's hard to believe...but it could be a "Joe Clark" type situation.  It is the most progressive riding in Calgary.

However I expect if the Liberals actually do take it they're likely to read too much into it and see it as evidence as Trudeau-mania and how only they not the NDP can win etc.  I could imagine CC as a "Lib Dem" type seat in a "UK style" parliament.




I'm not so sure about that. The riding across the river from Calgary centre that includes the university area may actually be mor "progressive" than CC


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: King of Kensington on November 16, 2012, 02:26:33 AM
You're right, Calgary Centre NORTH may be the "Strathcona" of Calgary.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on November 16, 2012, 07:50:23 AM
It truly depends on whether one means "NDP progressive" or "Liberal/Green/Red Tory progressive", of course--the latter which might have more clout w/the Mount Royal + condos bunch.  After all, this is Calgary's Smitherman Nation, not their Ford Nation....


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 16, 2012, 08:13:52 AM
If the boundaries were more like the old Calgary Centre, where it included areas on both sides of the river, it would be a better riding for the Liberals to win.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on November 19, 2012, 01:02:25 AM
Forum was the closest on the Ontario election and they were pretty much spot on for the recent provincial by-elections.  I agree I would be shocked if the Tories lost Calgary Centre nonetheless I think they are more likely to lose there than Durham although I doubt they will lose in either.  Central Calgary is not a left wing riding, but its pretty centrist; its not as conservative as some might think.  If it were a battle between the Democrats and the Republicans, the Democrats would win hands down and likewise between the PCs and Reform Party I think it would go PC.  Also some of it may be local candidate as before the nomination the Tories had a massive lead, but there was a lot of controversy as I believe Joan Crockett is not well liked by local Tories and she also hails from the WRA side, not the provincial PCs so some provincial PCs I've heard are supporting the Liberals so this maybe more a local candidate thing.  Think of it like Indiana and Missouri for the senate races.  Romney easily won both states, but their GOP candidates who were unpopular with the establishment and too extreme lost. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 19, 2012, 10:05:46 AM
Forum was the closest on the Ontario election and they were pretty much spot on for the recent provincial by-elections.  I agree I would be shocked if the Tories lost Calgary Centre nonetheless I think they are more likely to lose there than Durham although I doubt they will lose in either.  Central Calgary is not a left wing riding, but its pretty centrist; its not as conservative as some might think.  If it were a battle between the Democrats and the Republicans, the Democrats would win hands down and likewise between the PCs and Reform Party I think it would go PC.  Also some of it may be local candidate as before the nomination the Tories had a massive lead, but there was a lot of controversy as I believe Joan Crockett is not well liked by local Tories and she also hails from the WRA side, not the provincial PCs so some provincial PCs I've heard are supporting the Liberals so this maybe more a local candidate thing.  Think of it like Indiana and Missouri for the senate races.  Romney easily won both states, but their GOP candidates who were unpopular with the establishment and too extreme lost. 

Umm... the riding already went Reform over the PCs... in 1993 and 1997.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on November 19, 2012, 07:54:57 PM
Umm... the riding already went Reform over the PCs... in 1993 and 1997.

And probably would've gone for Reform's Alliance successors in 2000 were Joe Clark not the PC candidate.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on November 19, 2012, 08:17:54 PM
The Liberals + PCs however exceeded the Reform Party in 1993 and 1997.  Never mind as someone with family from Alberta I kind of understand this area.  Many of the over 50 crowd still hate the Liberals for the National Energy Program and even if they are more centrist will not vote Liberal for that reason, whereas amongst the under 40 crowd, many don't remember this thus don't vote conservative as religiously as their parents.  Calgary maybe the most Conservative city in Canada but it is not nearly as right wing as some think.  Also the Alberta PCs are a very powerful political machine and if their supporters help the Liberals this could make the difference.  Lets remember there is still a lot of bad blood with the WRA so the fact Joan Crockett is a WRA supporter no doubt probably motivates many PC supporters to volunteer for the Liberals.  I think if it was a general election it would go Conservative and barring any major scandal I think the Conservatives will easily win it in 2015 but since electing a Liberal or Green wouldn't affect the overall house standings; the Tories still have a majority, it becomes more about which candidate they like better.  I still think the Tories are the frontrunners but I don't think it is as safe as some think.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 19, 2012, 08:33:04 PM
That could explain things.

In recent polls, the PC lead over Wildrose increased.
It was 10 at the election, now it's around 16-17 points.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 21, 2012, 01:42:37 PM
McGuinty just nuked whatever chance the Grits might've had.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 21, 2012, 03:09:44 PM
McGuinty just nuked whatever chance the Grits might've had.

Details?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 21, 2012, 03:25:51 PM
In a nutshell, confirming every stereotype Albertans have of Liberals. Rae has already apologized for McGuinty's comments.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/11/20/david-mcguinty-to-tories-go-back-to-alberta

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/21/rae-forced-to-apologize-after-david-mcguinty-says-alberta-tories-should-go-home/


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 21, 2012, 05:18:50 PM
Rae has accepted McGuinty's resignation as natural resource critic, per Twitter.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 21, 2012, 05:58:41 PM
Wow, Liberals, just wow. When was the last time they were competent?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 21, 2012, 08:11:34 PM
lol nice. Would rather the Tories win CC than the Libs. If it were AV my vote would be 1) NDP 2) Greens 3) Tories 4) Liberals


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 22, 2012, 07:14:45 AM
lol nice. Would rather the Tories win CC than the Libs. If it were AV my vote would be 1) NDP 2) Greens 3) Tories 4) Liberals

Why did you put the Grits 4th?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 22, 2012, 07:27:06 AM
lol nice. Would rather the Tories win CC than the Libs. If it were AV my vote would be 1) NDP 2) Greens 3) Tories 4) Liberals

Why did you put the Grits 4th?

Can't have the Liberals winning Calgary Centre


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on November 22, 2012, 11:49:19 PM
lol nice. Would rather the Tories win CC than the Libs. If it were AV my vote would be 1) NDP 2) Greens 3) Tories 4) Liberals

Why did you put the Grits 4th?

Can't have the Liberals winning Calgary Centre

After the comments of David McGuinty and now some comments brought up from a two year old tape with Justin Trudeau, it will be interesting to see what happens.  I suspect the Tory internal polls have them worried so they are going to dig up every anti-Alberta comment from the Liberals to make sure it doesn't happen.  I would also argue a Tory loss in Durham would be just as big a deal as Tory support there in the past few elections hasn't been that much different than Calgary Centre.  Lets remember this is usually amongst their top 20 best seats in Ontario so if they lose there that signifies big trouble.  Nonetheless I see no evidence to suggest it won't go Tory.  The real question is do they get under or over 50% of the popular vote. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 22, 2012, 11:57:19 PM
Over 50 in Durham, less in CC. Then there are some claiming the Greens will do well in Victoria...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 23, 2012, 12:46:03 AM
Over 50 in Durham, less in CC. Then there are some claiming the Greens will do well in Victoria...

Greens should finish 2nd in Victoria, but their best bet at winning a seat will be CC. A lot of would be Liberal voters pissed off about Trudeau/McGuinty might switch to the Greens.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on November 23, 2012, 05:52:19 PM
Over 50 in Durham, less in CC. Then there are some claiming the Greens will do well in Victoria...

Greens should finish 2nd in Victoria, but their best bet at winning a seat will be CC. A lot of would be Liberal voters pissed off about Trudeau/McGuinty might switch to the Greens.

Wont the Tory's who are voting Liberal cause they are pissed at Crawford cancel out the Liberals who will vote Green cause they are pissed at the Trudeau/McGuinty Comments?
My hope is they all give up and end up voting NDP, ya know the Official Opposition :P but thats wishful thinking (just like my hope for an upset in Durham)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 23, 2012, 08:04:40 PM
New CC poll: Crockatt 37, Locke 32, Turner 17, Meades 12.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/conservative-hold-slight-lead-in-calgary-centre-by-election-poll/article5609301/


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on November 23, 2012, 08:42:38 PM
Over 50 in Durham, less in CC. Then there are some claiming the Greens will do well in Victoria...

If it's over 50 in Durham, it's due to the favourite-son stature of the Tory standard-bearer.  But I can still see token sinkage here; though it'd be surprising to see the Cons sink under 40--and even there, an opposition split works on their behalf...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 23, 2012, 11:52:01 PM
Excellent news. A Liberal win in CC would mean another nail in the NDP coffin.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on November 24, 2012, 08:36:22 AM
Calm your tits.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on November 24, 2012, 10:14:31 AM
Excellent news. A Liberal win in CC would mean another nail in the NDP coffin.

Though if the NDP has a solid hold in Victoria and the Liberals are plausibly relegated to 4th in a seat they held less than a decade ago, that kind of counterweighs things, no?  (Besides, a poor CC NDP result may more likely bespeak the party's lingering retrograde lunchbucket stale-brandedness in that city--a malaise more akin to Lingenfelter's Sask than Layton's Canada.)

All in all, the Liberals potentially outpacing the NDP in Durham might be a stronger signal of the bloom being off the Dipper rose, even though that's a place where the NDP in second would have been a pre-Orange Crush pipe dream par excellence...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 24, 2012, 12:45:24 PM
The NDP should place 2nd in Durham. They have a strong candidate, and it is next to Oshawa after all.  BUT, it is exurban Toronto, which usually is a wasteland for the NDP.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: King of Kensington on November 24, 2012, 01:54:11 PM
Excellent news. A Liberal win in CC would mean another nail in the NDP coffin.

Well, every party has a tendency to over-read their mandate. 


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 24, 2012, 02:03:11 PM
I expect drifting Tories to come back in the final days, like the provincial election, in CC. Dunno about the others.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on November 24, 2012, 08:06:31 PM
The NDP should place 2nd in Durham. They have a strong candidate, and it is next to Oshawa after all.  BUT, it is exurban Toronto, which usually is a wasteland for the NDP.

Prior to the Orange Crush, even w/said strong candidate and even w/being next to Oshawa, to predict 2nd place here would've earned one horselaughs.  Not that they *won't* place 2nd; but I'd go w/the polls indicating that it's more of a race for 2nd than a race for 1st.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 24, 2012, 09:56:51 PM
Last debate wrapped up.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Calgary+Centre+candidates+make+final+push+during+lively+debate/7606667/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 24, 2012, 10:04:55 PM
My Victoria by-election guide: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/11/federal-by-elections-part-1-victoria.html

parts 2 and 3 coming within the next ~36 hours.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 24, 2012, 11:06:55 PM
Excellent news. A Liberal win in CC would mean another nail in the NDP coffin.

I think it's a bit soon to be declaring that.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 24, 2012, 11:19:34 PM
He was being sarcastic.

Hatman: :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 25, 2012, 11:58:43 AM
My analysis of Durham is up: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/11/federal-by-elections-part-2-durham.html



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 01:04:26 AM
And finally, Calgary Centre: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/11/federal-by-elections-part-3-calgary.html


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 26, 2012, 07:26:36 AM
Read it. Neat stuff.

I'll go negative here and predict:

Calgary Centre: Liberal (to go Tory again in 2015)
Durham: Conservative
Victoria: NDP


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2012, 02:22:24 PM
Turnout is "strong" and "brisk" in Calgary Centre. Interpret how you wish.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Calgary+Centre+byelection+shows+signs+strong+voter+turnout/7609088/story.html


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Qavvavak on November 26, 2012, 03:12:53 PM
I know Victoria will NDP seat and I really hope Durham going to NDP victory!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2012, 04:05:45 PM
Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 26, 2012, 04:10:14 PM
Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

Not sure if this is universal, but that has been my experience scrutineering.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hash on November 26, 2012, 04:10:38 PM
Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

I worked during the last federal and provincial elections and I don't recall that it came up, but I think we would have let everybody in line vote.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 04:21:37 PM
Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

I think so. I've never seen it happen though. Whenever I've scrutineered, there is barely anyone around when the polls close. But then again, polls close late in Ontario to accommodate the west. (compare Durham is closing at 9:30 local time and Calgary Centre is at 7:30 local time).

Things are different in the UK, right? I remember huge issues in their last election.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on November 26, 2012, 05:26:54 PM
Victoria should be an easy NDP hold, but interesting to see how well the Greens do.  Also it will be interesting to see if the Tories fall below 20%.  Since 1993 under the Reform/Alliance/Conservatives (not combining votes, just the most right wing party on the ballot) they have never fallen below 20%, but never cracked the 30% mark either.

For Durham, I would be very shocked if the Tories don't win.  The main question is do they get over 50% which my guess is no or do they fall below.

As for Calgary Centre, if I had to guess I would say the Tories narrowly hold it but it will be much closer than they want, nonetheless unlike Durham I could see this flipping.  I agree that in 2015 it will probably go back to the Tories unless they have some big scandal which sinks them nationally.  Otherwise I think their chances of losing the next election are greater than losing any seat in Calgary.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Orion0 on November 26, 2012, 06:51:17 PM
Read it. Neat stuff.

I'll go negative here and predict:

Calgary Centre: Liberal (to go Tory again in 2015)
Durham: Conservative
Victoria: NDP


Gonna have to disagree with the prediction, Crockett is not ideal, but Greens and libs both have (relatively) high support here, and any strategic ABC voting doesn't seem to be coalescing around one candidate. I'll be watching green support, as the higher it is more likely Crockett wins. If it does flip, I tend to agree with mileslunn & dc and see it going back to con in 15, temporary blip style.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on November 26, 2012, 07:37:00 PM
Then again, who knows if the added attention to Calgary Centre actually now being winnable or at least competitive for a non-Conservative might carry on into the next general election...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Orion0 on November 26, 2012, 07:58:21 PM
Then again, who knows if the added attention to Calgary Centre actually now being winnable or at least competitive for a non-Conservative might carry on into the next general election...

You might think, but Calgary is a different political beast than Edmonton where opposition parties at least have a decent showing. I used to believe that like Edmonton, Calgary was ripe for non-cpc parties. Then I moved to Calgary, and the last 4 years have proven (to me at least) that Calgary is solidly blue, unless the libs start saying yes to nexen, northern gateway, etc etc as a group (not just individual candidates piecemeal support for some aspects) and with a general election on the line in 2015 I doubt that Calgary would bite the hand that feeds, so to speak.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 08:41:48 PM
Downtown Calgary wont be that blue tonight methinks.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Orion0 on November 26, 2012, 08:59:24 PM
Downtown Calgary wont be that blue tonight methinks.

Perhaps not, but there is a huge push on the ground for both Turner and Locke = a split. And you more than anyone else should know that Calgary centre holds not only the downtown core, but large swaths of middle class suburbs, which are the cons bread and butter. Plus the monied mansions along the elbow which are reliably conservative as well.

No matter the results, it's a perfect storm sort of by-election, with a polarizing cpc candidate and two very savvy challengers (the NDP sitting this one out it seems) and a situation not likely to be repeated come 2015.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 09:20:15 PM
Downtown Calgary wont be that blue tonight methinks.

Perhaps not, but there is a huge push on the ground for both Turner and Locke = a split. And you more than anyone else should know that Calgary centre holds not only the downtown core, but large swaths of middle class suburbs, which are the cons bread and butter. Plus the monied mansions along the elbow which are reliably conservative as well.

No matter the results, it's a perfect storm sort of by-election, with a polarizing cpc candidate and two very savvy challengers (the NDP sitting this one out it seems) and a situation not likely to be repeated come 2015.

My point was, not all of Calgary is blue. Just not enough to form any non-Tory federal ridings. Although one could make a gerrymander going from the central part of the city into the McCall area :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on November 26, 2012, 09:28:02 PM
How long before results start trickling in?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 09:32:17 PM
As an aside, yes, things are different in the UK.

After the 2010 election, new signs have appeared at polling stations which say "Polls close at 10pm, always expect queues as you cannot vote afterwards" or somesuch. I think there's an amendment to the law going through the Commons, at the usual pace you'd expect.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2012, 09:37:37 PM
How long before results start trickling in?

Counting started in Calgary and Durham (10 minutes ago), but no results can be published before 20 minutes (when Victoria polls closes).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2012, 09:39:07 PM
Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

I think so. I've never seen it happen though. Whenever I've scrutineered, there is barely anyone around when the polls close. But then again, polls close late in Ontario to accommodate the west. (compare Durham is closing at 9:30 local time and Calgary Centre is at 7:30 local time).

Things are different in the UK, right? I remember huge issues in their last election.

To those who already scrutineered, does lanes are common, or quite rare?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 09:44:37 PM
Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

I think so. I've never seen it happen though. Whenever I've scrutineered, there is barely anyone around when the polls close. But then again, polls close late in Ontario to accommodate the west. (compare Durham is closing at 9:30 local time and Calgary Centre is at 7:30 local time).

Things are different in the UK, right? I remember huge issues in their last election.

To those who already scrutineered, does lanes are common, or quite rare?

Depends on the time of day, but I've never seen anything too long.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2012, 09:46:34 PM
Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

I think so. I've never seen it happen though. Whenever I've scrutineered, there is barely anyone around when the polls close. But then again, polls close late in Ontario to accommodate the west. (compare Durham is closing at 9:30 local time and Calgary Centre is at 7:30 local time).

Things are different in the UK, right? I remember huge issues in their last election.

To those who already scrutineered, does lanes are common, or quite rare?

Depends on the time of day, but I've never seen anything too long.

The only time I voted at federal, I waited 25 minutes, but I doubt it is common (at 5PM and our scrutator had, as we were explained, a small bladder).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hash on November 26, 2012, 09:48:34 PM
Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

I think so. I've never seen it happen though. Whenever I've scrutineered, there is barely anyone around when the polls close. But then again, polls close late in Ontario to accommodate the west. (compare Durham is closing at 9:30 local time and Calgary Centre is at 7:30 local time).

Things are different in the UK, right? I remember huge issues in their last election.

To those who already scrutineered, does lanes are common, or quite rare?

It really depends on the time of day. When people get off work in the evenings or at lunch, or in the morning before they go to work; there's a good chance that there will be a lineup. In October, we had a pretty big lineup starting at around 5:30-6pm which lasted 30 minutes after a really, really dead afternoon. It always stays a bit busy after 7pm until the polls closes.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 26, 2012, 09:50:19 PM
I thought I'd posted this yesterday, but apparently not.  For what it's worth, my prediciton is:

Calgary Centre - Conservative
Durham - Conservative
Victoria - NDP


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 09:51:03 PM
I thought I'd posted this yesterday, but apparently not.  For what it's worth, my prediciton is:

Calgary Centre - Conservative
Durham - Conservative
Victoria - NDP

Those are some pretty brave predictions, Inks ;)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 26, 2012, 09:52:24 PM
Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

I think so. I've never seen it happen though. Whenever I've scrutineered, there is barely anyone around when the polls close. But then again, polls close late in Ontario to accommodate the west. (compare Durham is closing at 9:30 local time and Calgary Centre is at 7:30 local time).

Things are different in the UK, right? I remember huge issues in their last election.

To those who already scrutineered, does lanes are common, or quite rare?

There's usually a 10-20 people lined up when the polls close. It's not really hard to process.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on November 26, 2012, 09:57:58 PM
As an aside, yes, things are different in the UK.

After the 2010 election, new signs have appeared at polling stations which say "Polls close at 10pm, always expect queues as you cannot vote afterwards" or somesuch. I think there's an amendment to the law going through the Commons, at the usual pace you'd expect.

Over here, at 6pm (when polls close), an Electoral Commission employee walks to the end of the line, and everyone in front of them can vote, and everyone who shows up after that is turned away. That said, the line by then is usually pretty short, so often it's just a case of going over and locking the doors (scrutineers must be in the room by then).

The lines are longest at lunch time, although there are other smaller peaks throughout the day. Since we have compulsory voting, turnout isn't much of an indicator, we use the "early morning rush" as our estimation of how eager people are to vote.

How long before results start trickling in?

Counting started in Calgary and Durham (10 minutes ago), but no results can be published before 20 minutes (when Victoria polls closes).

Cheers mate!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 26, 2012, 09:59:00 PM
What site(s) are you guys going to be watching results on?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:01:30 PM
http://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts_e.aspx

Tories already up by 9 in Calgary


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 26, 2012, 10:03:30 PM
http://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts_e.aspx

Tories already up by 9 in Calgary

OK - that's what I already had up. I didn't know if CBC had a dedicated page, but I couldn't find one.

It's a close one in Calgary Centre!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:04:08 PM
Liberals ahead by 10 now in Calgary


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2012, 10:05:14 PM
NDP far ahead of the Liberals in Durham for the silver medal. Tories under 50%.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2012, 10:06:26 PM
Liberals up by 34 votes in the latest update.
47-31 in Durham.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 26, 2012, 10:06:50 PM
Liberals ahead by 10 now in Calgary

I'm guessing it'll flip back and forth a few times tonight.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2012, 10:08:11 PM
Question: Why there is a Durham County?
I hope it's not about Lord Durham, the governor of the mid nineteenth century.

EDIT: Liberals up 35 now.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:10:03 PM
Question: Why there is a Durham County?
I hope it's not about Lord Durham, the governor of the mid nineteenth century.


Well, it's Durham Region now. Half the riding is in what used to be Ontario County.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:14:44 PM
Crockatts now ahead! :D


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 26, 2012, 10:15:08 PM
Crockatt retakes a 15 vote lead!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on November 26, 2012, 10:15:09 PM
Question: Why there is a Durham County?
I hope it's not about Lord Durham, the governor of the mid nineteenth century.

Southwestern Ontario was laid out to look like England by its original colonial administration. For it to work you have to flip it almost on its side so the Michigan border is the "south" and towards Toronto is the "north", with Lakes Erie and Ontario as the "east". Look at where London is on this orientation, and consider that it's on the Thames River in Middlesex County, that the next county downriver is Kent, whose main city is Chatham, and that on the other side, up the Thames River is Oxford County. Also observe where Norfolk County is. The Niagara region was originally Lincoln County, while Toronto was originally called York (preserved in the county name which was separated from the city itself in the 1950's). The river that empties into Lake Ontario in Etobicoke, which was then the countryside west ("south" on this orientation) of York is the Humber, and the county just past York is Durham, and then comes Northumberland...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: cp on November 26, 2012, 10:15:41 PM
All tied up now.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:16:42 PM

Long time no see :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: cp on November 26, 2012, 10:17:11 PM
It's good to be back. :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 26, 2012, 10:17:35 PM

I've gotta say - right now this is about as exciting as a horse race... this will not do good things for my studying tonight.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:18:33 PM
Tories back on top.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2012, 10:18:45 PM
Crockatt retakes a 10-vote lead.

Question: how small does the margin have to be for an automatic recount? 0.5%?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 10:20:04 PM
That enr.elections website is very good!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2012, 10:20:13 PM
Turnout in Calgary Centre will be lucky to break 25% at this pace.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 26, 2012, 10:20:33 PM
Crockatt widens the lead to 129 votes.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:21:04 PM
Turnout in Calgary Centre will be lucky to break 25% at this pace.

Surprising considering how close it is...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2012, 10:22:17 PM
Yep. Do we have any idea which polls are reporting? I still think Crockatt wins narrowly, but who knows.

CBC has called Durham for O'Toole.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:24:03 PM
We never know what polls are coming in, unfortunately. Would be nice to have people on the campaigns to let us know.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2012, 10:25:31 PM
Conservatives up by 164 votes, now.
49-29 in Durham.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:28:52 PM
Back over 200 now


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 10:29:30 PM
The Grochowski/Prashad race to 1.0 is my favoured race ;) :D


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on November 26, 2012, 10:30:11 PM
Interesting that the race widely publicised as being the closest has ended up likely having a lower turnout than Durham, where the result was never really in doubt.

The CC result is pretty close - second place is virtually mid-way between first and third, although I suspect the gap between second and third to widen as more polls report.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 26, 2012, 10:31:58 PM
Interesting that the race widely publicised as being the closest has ended up likely having a lower turnout than Durham, where the result was never really in doubt.

I had that same thought.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2012, 10:32:42 PM
Crockatt's lead continues to widen. Unless there's a major stash of Liberal votes to come...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:34:21 PM
Crockatt's lead continues to widen. Unless there's a major stash of Liberal votes to come...

The trend is widening, but it's still back and forth (as in up to 400 and then down to 300...)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on November 26, 2012, 10:35:04 PM
O' Toole (Consv, Durham) @ 50%


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on November 26, 2012, 10:36:38 PM
Conservatives leading in Victoria!
(After 1 poll)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 26, 2012, 10:36:45 PM
Victoria's coming in!  Gann in the lead by 6 votes


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 10:37:45 PM
Victoria, Cons 32-27 NDP from 1 poll reporting. :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 10:38:13 PM
Conservatives leading in Victoria!
(After 1 poll)


*extrapolates results from this for entire country*


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2012, 10:39:12 PM
Probably just one of the Oak Bay polls; calm down.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:41:04 PM
Wait, I thought the Tories were supposed to finish 4th in Victoria...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2012, 10:41:54 PM
Crockatt's lead continues to widen, up to 5 points now.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:44:34 PM
NDP ahead now in Victoria (phew!)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2012, 10:44:51 PM
Wait, I thought the Tories were supposed to finish 4th in Victoria...

And they quickly collasped to a distant third.
Perhaps we will have a Tory-Liberal race for the 3rd place.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 26, 2012, 10:46:31 PM
NDP takes the lead in Victoria, with the Greens in 2nd, and Tories in 3rd.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 10:47:21 PM
They count slow in Victoria, right?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:48:00 PM

Old people. And they're British ;)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2012, 10:48:37 PM

Well, considering the area, either the counters are elderly people, public servents or stoned young adults.

None of those are known for their quickness.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2012, 10:49:42 PM
Closed a bit now to 3.7%.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: cp on November 26, 2012, 10:50:23 PM

Old people. And they're British ;)

OI! :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:50:49 PM
Dont take your eyes off of Calgary. Crockatt still ahead by less than 400 votes.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:51:28 PM

Old people. And they're British ;)

OI! :P
[/quote]

I know you're not British :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 10:51:56 PM

Old people. And they're British ;)

Haha, yes, thank you. :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2012, 10:52:18 PM
There's this lady on Twitter with the handle @carlena. She seems to have scoops on CC... says Locke is ahead.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 10:52:40 PM

Well, considering the area, either the counters are elderly people, public servents or stoned young adults.

None of those are known for their quickness.

Haha, I'm learning a lot tonight :P :D


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on November 26, 2012, 10:54:20 PM
Gann has 47 votes for the Conservatives in the 1st poll
After 5 polls he has 61.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:55:21 PM
There's this lady on Twitter with the handle @carlena. She seems to have scoops on CC... says Locke is ahead.

Im seeing someone on Twitter say that too.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: cp on November 26, 2012, 10:56:06 PM

I know you're not British :P
[/quote]

I lived there for 5 years and I'm still happily attached to a limey. I take offense on his behalf :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2012, 10:56:45 PM
Even Victoria is fairly close, the Dippers lead by 4.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 10:56:51 PM

I lived there for 5 years and I'm still happily attached to a limey. I take offense on his behalf :P
[/quote]

Ha. My partner has British citizenship too.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: cp on November 26, 2012, 10:59:28 PM
So you know as well as I do that voting isn't the only thing British people take hours to finish ;)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Meeker on November 26, 2012, 10:59:42 PM
Totally meaningless but amusing: Greens are averaging a higher voter share than the Grits.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2012, 11:00:21 PM
Calgary returns in the 200-300 vote lead zone.
In Victoria, two races. NDP-Green for 1st place, Liberal-Conservative for 3rd.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 11:00:39 PM
So you know as well as I do that voting isn't the only thing British people take hours to finish ;)

How terribly rude ;)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 26, 2012, 11:02:03 PM
We're at about the halfway point in Calgary Centre.  They may just barely hit 25% voter turnout at this rate.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: cp on November 26, 2012, 11:02:16 PM
Prove me wrong. :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 26, 2012, 11:02:43 PM
So you know as well as I do that voting isn't the only thing British people take hours to finish ;)

How terribly rude ;)

That's not always a bad thing. ;)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2012, 11:03:25 PM
Has your insider updated yet Hatman? Mine hasn't. We'll see who's right... they or EC.

Also, Greens take the Victoria lead for the first time.

Mine updated: Crockatt will lead by 200 with the next batch.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2012, 11:04:09 PM
Greens are leading in Victoria, by 22 votes.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 11:04:50 PM
NOOOOOO


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: cp on November 26, 2012, 11:04:55 PM
So I don't come off like a total perv, I'll change the subject by stating the Greens are up by 22 in Victoria and the Tories are up by 363 in CC.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 11:05:13 PM
Durham
Conservative 50.6
NDP 26.7

Victoria
Green 38.1
NDP 37.3

Calgary Center......Centre......CC
Conservative 35.9
Liberal 32.9


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2012, 11:08:13 PM
CC: Tories leads by 380 votes.
Victoria: Greens leads by 8 votes.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 26, 2012, 11:08:31 PM
Well Victoria is more interesting than I thought it'd be.  Although it's still early.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 11:09:04 PM
You know, the Greens have done well in Durham in the past (2008). Not a focus for them at all this time.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: cp on November 26, 2012, 11:09:38 PM
Perhaps this has been covered somewhere on the preceding 28 pages (which I'm too lazy to inspect), but is there any reason why the NDP seemed not to have contested Calgary Centre or the Liberals Durham?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 11:13:35 PM
The "races for the bottom" are looking TIGHT, if that's  not too awkward a combination of words for just gone ten past 4 in the morning

Durham
Andrew Moriarity (CHP)  319
Michael NICULA (Online)  106

Calgary C.
Antoni GROCHOWSKI (Ind) 75
Tony PRASHAD (Libertarian) 65

Victoria
Philip NEY (CHP) 29
Art LOWE (Libertarian) 21



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: cp on November 26, 2012, 11:14:42 PM
NDP up by 1 vote in Victoria!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2012, 11:14:58 PM
NDP retake lead, by 1 vote.
CC: Tories leads by 277 votes.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 11:15:10 PM
Perhaps this has been covered somewhere on the preceding 28 pages (which I'm too lazy to inspect), but is there any reason why the NDP seemed not to have contested Calgary Centre or the Liberals Durham?

Candidate strength.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2012, 11:16:54 PM
Yeah, the Grits had that incident mixing veterans' support with campaign fundraising.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 11:17:57 PM
Twitter is saying that with 80%, there is a 20 vote difference in Calgary.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 11:18:05 PM
Victoria:  NDP ahead of Greens 37.5-36.1,  35/256 reporting


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2012, 11:18:52 PM
V: NDP leads by 137 votes.
CC: Tories leads 292 votes.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 11:18:57 PM
The parties will have more up to date results than Elections Canada, so this one is going to get exciting.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2012, 11:19:28 PM
Recount?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 11:21:34 PM

Could be the case. Wow. When was the last recount in a by-election?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Orion0 on November 26, 2012, 11:23:22 PM
Perhaps this has been covered somewhere on the preceding 28 pages (which I'm too lazy to inspect), but is there any reason why the NDP seemed not to have contested Calgary Centre or the Liberals Durham?

Candidate strength.

Agreed, especially as a strong green candidate draws on the relatively soft NDP support here in Alberta.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 11:23:37 PM
0422 British Time ;)

Victoria
NDP - 37.2
Green - 36.5
Con - 12,8

Calgary C.
Con - 35.8
Lib - 33.5
Green - 25.2


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 11:24:14 PM
If the Liberals lose CC, then you can point your finger at McGuinty.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Orion0 on November 26, 2012, 11:25:11 PM
If the Liberals lose CC, then you can point your finger at McGuinty.

And the presumptive prince Trudeau.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 11:26:10 PM
Somewhat lost in all this is Durham

210/236

Con  15,017 (50.8 )
NDP 7,723 (26.1)
Liberal 5,077 (17.2)

Turnout 31%


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 11:27:14 PM
Greens back on top in Vic. :( :( :(


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 11:28:00 PM
Victoria
56/256

Green 2,577 (36.9)
NDP 2,556 (36.6)
Con 894 (12.8 )


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on November 26, 2012, 11:28:22 PM
It has been almost 2 hour since the polls close.
In Calgary Centre there is average of 100 votes / polling station.
In the last election there was an average of abour 200 votes / polling station
Last time their were a few polls of around 300 votes.

How long does it take to count them?

When I was invovled it takes under 1 hour.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 11:29:38 PM
It has been almost 2 hour since the polls close.
In Calgary Centre there is average of 100 votes / polling station.
In the last election there was an average of abour 200 votes / polling station
Last time their were a few polls of around 300 votes.

How long does it take to count them?

When I was invovled it takes under 1 hour.

Takes a while to get the info to EC. The parties have more up to date numbers.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 11:33:14 PM
Vic: NDP ahead  2,970  of Greens 2,916
CC: Con ahead  6,514 of Liberal 5,988


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2012, 11:33:58 PM
Now Crockatt will have a 400 vote lead. Hatman, your source still saying 20 vote difference with 80%?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: cp on November 26, 2012, 11:34:20 PM
What twitter accounts are people following that have allegedly more up to date information than the Elections Canada website?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2012, 11:35:27 PM
@carlena for me. Also, Kady O'Malley says she's about ready to call CC for Crockatt because there aren't enough Lib votes remaining.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2012, 11:35:43 PM
CC: Tories leads by 610 votes
V: NDP leads by 104 votes


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 11:35:51 PM
Durham (the forgotten byelection): Con 16,088 ahead of NDP 8,399


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Orion0 on November 26, 2012, 11:38:28 PM
Pretty exciting that Victoria is also close, the power of byelections!
CC seems to be stabilizing though.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on November 26, 2012, 11:38:47 PM
It would seem that the Grits and Greens should have come to some sort of vote-trading agreement between Calgary Centre and Victoria and they'd both be well ahead.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 26, 2012, 11:40:09 PM
CC: Tories leads by 635 votes
V: NDP leads by 58 votes.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 11:44:21 PM
Victoria
NDP lead Greens 3,768 to 3,745

Calgary
Conservative lead Liberal  6,965 to 6,360


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2012, 11:48:04 PM
Stephen Carter, Martha Hall Findlay's AB-based strategist, has conceded defeat on Twitter. Given the 600+ gap I don't see how Locke wins at this point...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Orion0 on November 26, 2012, 11:48:06 PM
It would seem that the Grits and Greens should have come to some sort of vote-trading agreement between Calgary Centre and Victoria and they'd both be well ahead.

Works in theory, but not on the ground. Older progressive voters write off green candidates (single issue, not in position of power, etc etc) and go liberal, and there is a large contingent in Alberta that would rather vote ABC with another caveat ABL. Never underestimate how poisoned the liberal name is among certain people in this province.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 11:50:06 PM
CC
Con 7,097
Liberal 6,467
Green 4,912

Vic
NDP 4,368
Green 4,355
Con 1,568

Durham
Con 16,175
NDP 8,462
Liberal 5,488



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 11:52:01 PM
29 vote lead :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 11:53:51 PM
89 vote lead :D


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 11:54:38 PM
Victoria
NDP  4,824
Green 4,735
Con 1,723

CC
Con 7,220
Liberal 6,625
Green 5,028

Durham
Con 16,245
NDP 8,517
Liberal 5,516


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 26, 2012, 11:55:18 PM

I'm guessing pundits will spin it as a setback for all parties- Crockatt nearly losing, Victoria on a knife edge, LPC/CPC seriously underperforming in Vic/Durham.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 26, 2012, 11:56:54 PM
Greens are the winners of the night. The NDP will be the losers if they lose Victoria. And even if they win it, they probably still are the losers. But, it's a toss up because it's not a good night for the Liberals or the Tories either.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 26, 2012, 11:58:23 PM
Vic
NDP 5,168 v Green 5,095

CC
Con 7,811 v Liberal 7,147


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 12:01:39 AM
NDP lead down to 19 in Vic. :(


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2012, 12:02:05 AM
While the Victoria result is impressive, for their next act the Greens should win a seat not on Vancouver Island.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 27, 2012, 12:02:22 AM
Vic
NDP ahead 36.8 of Green 36.2

CC
Con ahead 36.9 of Liberal 33.2


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 12:03:35 AM
We're a few polls away from the halfway point in Victoria.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 27, 2012, 12:03:53 AM
Turnouts incidentally

Calgary (Cons leading 220/263 polls reporting) 24.3%
Victoria (NDP leading 125/256 polls reporting) 17.6%
Durham (Cons declared winner  227/236 polls reporting)  33.9%


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2012, 12:04:32 AM
CBC projects a Crockatt victory.

Spin; I'd say Grits have work to do in BC/ON, Tories and Dippers work in BC. As for Calgary, poor candidate and the broiling intraparty feud- which I hope gets resolved one way or the other ASAP.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: MaxQue on November 27, 2012, 12:04:42 AM
Greens are taking the lead.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 12:04:51 AM
Greens take 3 vote lead. ARGH


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 12:04:57 AM
The Greens take a three vote lead (out of 17,129), as we are up to 135/256 polls reporting in Victoria.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 27, 2012, 12:07:30 AM
CC
228/263
Con 8,807
Lib 7,778

Victoria
137/256
Green 6,403
NDP 6,388


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2012, 12:07:45 AM
I guess I root for the NDP in general, but given how far away the next election is I don't really think losing this seat will make much of a difference, and it'd be kind of neat to see the Greens with two seats.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on November 27, 2012, 12:08:42 AM
Who would have thought that of the three seats, Victoria would be shaping up to be the closest!?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 12:10:02 AM
Some more (likely BS) ground numbers, this time from Victoria. Greens with 150 vote lead with 183 polls in.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 27, 2012, 12:10:18 AM
Vic
137/256

Green 6,403
NDP 6,388

CC
230/263

Con 8,888
Liberal 7,826


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 12:11:12 AM
It's tied, folks.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2012, 12:13:35 AM
I expect you guys to pull out a close race like we did in CC.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 27, 2012, 12:13:54 AM
Calgary

239/263

Con 9,437
Liberal 8,151

Victoria

140/256
Green and NDP tied at 6,585 each


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 12:14:11 AM
Back on top by 39 :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Orion0 on November 27, 2012, 12:14:44 AM
Who would have thought that of the three seats, Victoria would be shaping up to be the closest!?

Not I that's for sure.

Greens could be the big winners/gainers tonight. A viable 4th party. NDP under 4% in CC down from 15% in 2011 shows just how soft their support is, and if Victoria goes green, the NDP will be spun as the big losers. Liberals also in a tough spot, but I don't foresee that changing anytime soon, especially with the coronation of Justin on the horizon. Cons need to stop feuding and if that can be done, 2015 will be a cakewalk in Calgary once again.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 27, 2012, 12:15:28 AM
RT @jengerson: Locke concedes, congratulates Joan Crockatt for winning the election. #yyccentre


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 12:16:42 AM
FTR, the NDP didn't get below 9% in any riding in 2011. So, yeah bad result. Especially considering they have absolutely no campaign in CC in 2011.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on November 27, 2012, 12:18:25 AM
Green's up by 1 vote.

I have been saving each refresh onto a spreadsheet.
If I have I time, I will try and plot in onto a graph


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 12:18:50 AM
Tied again at 6,585.  I have never seen an election this close with this much reporting.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Orion0 on November 27, 2012, 12:19:10 AM
FTR, the NDP didn't get below 9% in any riding in 2011. So, yeah bad result. Especially considering they have absolutely no campaign in CC in 2011.

The NDP guy was at every forum, unlike Crockett. It does not bode well for NDP hopes outside of Edmonton and maybe (big maybe) Lethbridge.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 27, 2012, 12:19:20 AM
Green's up by 1 vote.

I have been saving each refresh onto a spreadsheet.
If I have I time, I will try and plot in onto a graph


That would be amazing!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 12:19:45 AM
Greens now up by a 1-vote lead.  Wow this is close!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 12:20:42 AM
Green's up by 1 vote.

I have been saving each refresh onto a spreadsheet.
If I have I time, I will try and plot in onto a graph


90 seconds or 5 minutes?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2012, 12:23:14 AM
Tied again at 6,585.  I have never seen an election this close with this much reporting.

This year's Iowa caucuses? ;)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 12:24:29 AM
Greens at 90 vote lead now.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 12:25:49 AM
Greens up by 141 now. :( :( :(


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 12:26:31 AM

Just saw that - it went from tied to a fairly decent lead in no time.  But it's still close!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on November 27, 2012, 12:27:48 AM
Green's up by 1 vote.

I have been saving each refresh onto a spreadsheet.
If I have I time, I will try and plot in onto a graph


90 seconds or 5 minutes?

About every 90 seconds, I tend to refreshed every minute.
Sometime it takes a few minute for an update to occur


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 27, 2012, 12:28:40 AM
Has the CC vote now stopped updating?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 12:29:28 AM
Calgary Centre passed the 25% turnout mark, and is currently at 26.9%


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 12:30:48 AM
Greens' lead up to 168.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: 2952-0-0 on November 27, 2012, 12:32:06 AM
I personally know people who will be very happy tomorrow morning.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 12:32:38 AM
Has the CC vote now stopped updating?

No.  1 more poll just came in.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 12:34:01 AM
disaster. My girlfriend will be happy though.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 27, 2012, 12:35:06 AM

Ah yes, just noticed. A lot slower updates now!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 12:35:13 AM
disaster. My girlfriend will be happy though.

Is she one of the good guys (or rather girls) or a hippie? ;)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 12:35:37 AM

4 more, and only 3 left in Dunham!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 12:36:20 AM
1 poll away from final Dunham results!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2012, 12:36:53 AM
Kind of neat that both competitive by-elections tonight were competitive between two different parties. Such diversity!


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 27, 2012, 12:39:17 AM
CC
248/263

Con  9,834
Lib 8,569
Green 6,743

Durham
235/236

Con 17,029
NDP 8,843
Lib 5,818

Vic
175/256

Green 8,404
NDP 8,200
Con 3,262


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 12:40:57 AM
Durham is all in:

Green Party   Virginia Ervin   1,386   4.1   4.1%
Liberal   Grant Humes   5,887   17.3   17.3%
Christian Heritage Party   Andrew Moriarity   437   1.3   1.3%
Online Party   Michael Nicula   132   0.4   0.4%
NDP-New Democratic Party   Larry O'Connor   8,947   26.3   26.3%
Conservative   Erin O'Toole   17,281   50.7   50.7%

Polls reporting: 236/236   Voter turnout: 34,070 of 95,296 registered electors (35.8%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 27, 2012, 12:44:04 AM
Durham

Con 50.7  down from 54.6
NDP 26.3 up from 21.1
Liberal 17.3 down from 17.9
Green 4.1 down from 5.4
Christian 1.3 up from 0.8
Online .4 from nowhere
((Libertarian .32, didn't stand))


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 12:44:49 AM
Where is this Dunham place you speak of?

Anyways, word is from the NDP camp that they have an 800 vote lead with 15 polls to go.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 12:46:48 AM
Where is this Dunham place you speak of?

Anyways, word is from the NDP camp that they have an 800 vote lead with 15 polls to go.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.  I made it all night until the end without screwing up.  And I don't think I've said, "center" all night! :)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 27, 2012, 12:48:51 AM
CC
252/263

Con 9,903 v Liberal 8,698

Victoria
185/256

NDP 9,342 v Green 9,144



Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2012, 12:49:23 AM
Yep, a close Dipper victory seems most likely.

On a related note, did anyone see the Julian-May shouting match on PNP? That and Julian, shall we say, does not do stubble well. At all. :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 12:50:44 AM
Just read on Wikipedia that my former boss (Bruce Hyer) had been campaigning for the Greens in Victoria. Uh-oh.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2012, 12:52:33 AM
Forget about a return to caucus then.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 27, 2012, 12:55:03 AM
NDP now through 10,000 votes in Victoria


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 12:55:33 AM
Forget about a return to caucus then.

Beware of the tree hugging gun nuts. Only in Canada :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 12:57:55 AM
We're at 200 polls reporting in Victoria, and the NDP leads by 390 votes.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 27, 2012, 12:59:41 AM
By-election and all, but my god, I don't understand why anyone would vote for the Green Party.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: mileslunn on November 27, 2012, 01:01:20 AM
Still awaiting the final results but so far an okay night for the Tories.  They got clobbered as expected in Victoria, held onto Calgary Centre albeit but a rather slim margin compared to what the normally get and they did get over 50% in Durham which at least in this case suggests they have by in large held onto their support in Ontario (although one should be cautious in reading too much into these results).  For the Liberals a fairly good night as despite their poor showing in Victoria and Durham (both ridings they won in the 90s I should note), they did come close to pulling off an upset in Calgary Centre, which suggests that maybe they shouldn't be so quick to write off Alberta, although I suspect many provincial PCs who were angry at the fact Crockatt comes from the WRA and is a little too right wing for the riding might have voted Liberal this time since it would affect the composition of parliament, but might be reluctant to do so in a general election.  

The NDP improved slightly in Durham, did poorly in Calgary Centre as expected, but could potentially lose Victoria which would be a huge upset if they do, but I still think they will hold it.

Green Party a good night even if they don't pick up anything as in both Calgary Centre and Victoria they did very well, although in a general election I somehow doubt they will maintain those numbers.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 01:04:44 AM
Greens will try and target Victoria next election. It's their 2nd best election ever, I think


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 27, 2012, 01:08:43 AM
Xahar: May and Peter Julian got into a shouting match on a panel show tonight. :P


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: 2952-0-0 on November 27, 2012, 01:13:34 AM
I don't see how the Liberals can spin these results to their advantage. Even in Calgary Centre it can be argued the vast majority of Liberal voters are voting against Crockatt than for anything. The Conservatives can claim to have held onto their seat, but it's humiliating to have to fight for something they take for granted. The NDP are underperforming in all three ridings. So somehow, the Greens can claim victory even though they may not win any seats.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 01:15:24 AM
NDP is now pulling away in Victoria.  They lead by 841 votes now.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 01:17:26 AM
I don't see how the Liberals can spin these results to their advantage. Even in Calgary Centre it can be argued the vast majority of Liberal voters are voting against Crockatt than for anything. The Conservatives can claim to have held onto their seat, but it's humiliating to have to fight for something they take for granted. The NDP are underperforming in all three ridings. So somehow, the Greens can claim victory even though they may not win any seats.

How is the NDP underperforming in Durham?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on November 27, 2012, 01:27:15 AM
I think, given the low turnout in CC, it may not so much be PCers voting Liberal because of Crockett, but possibly the Liberal vote remaining (with a slight lift, perhaps?) While anti-Crockett PCers just simply stayed home? If this is the case, even the best result for the Liberals is pretty shabby, and probably the fault of the anti-Alberta comments recently.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 01:29:33 AM
Calgary Centre is now all in:

Conservative   Joan Crockatt   10,201   36.9   36.9%
Independent   Antoni Grochowski   141   0.5   0.5%
Liberal   Harvey Locke   9,034   32.7   32.7%
NDP-New Democratic Party   Dan Meades   1,063   3.8   3.8%
Libertarian   Tony Prashad   121   0.4   0.4%
Green Party   Chris Turner   7,090   25.6   25.6%

27,650 of 93,984 registered electors (29.4%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 01:32:28 AM
The NDP now leads by 1,248 in Victoria.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Orion0 on November 27, 2012, 01:40:56 AM
NDP does worse in CC than the greens in Durham.
NDP pulls similar % in Durham as the greens in CC.
NDP much weaker in Victoria than expected, and likely the target of a focused attack come 2015.
All in all it's not positive signs for the NDP, given the rise of the greens.

Liberals a non-entity? I'd say they hit the high water mark in terms of raw vote #s in Calgary, and their showing in Durham and Victoria is particularly poor. I hope that they take the leadership contest seriously, as it's going to take more than a decent hairstyle and shoddy acting skills to win people back it seems.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on November 27, 2012, 01:43:18 AM
CBC calls NDP in Victoria


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Meeker on November 27, 2012, 01:47:08 AM
How soon do we get to see results by poll?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: trebor204 on November 27, 2012, 01:48:52 AM
How soon do we get to see results by poll?

It will take awhile, normally around a month.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 01:49:37 AM
NDP does worse in CC than the greens in Durham.
NDP pulls similar % in Durham as the greens in CC.
NDP much weaker in Victoria than expected, and likely the target of a focused attack come 2015.
All in all it's not positive signs for the NDP, given the rise of the greens.

Liberals a non-entity? I'd say they hit the high water mark in terms of raw vote #s in Calgary, and their showing in Durham and Victoria is particularly poor. I hope that they take the leadership contest seriously, as it's going to take more than a decent hairstyle and shoddy acting skills to win people back it seems.

If they go with Mr. Trudeau, the NDP will be very thankful come election day.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 02:33:59 AM
Final unoffical results from Victoria:

Green Party   Donald Galloway   13,368   34.3   34.3%
Conservative   Dale Gann   5,633   14.4   14.4%
Libertarian   Art Lowe   194   0.5   0.5%
Christian Heritage Party   Philip G. Ney   191   0.5   0.5%
NDP-New Democratic Party   Murray Rankin   14,519   37.2   37.2%
Liberal   Paul Summerville   5,092   13.1   13.1%

Voter turnout: 38,997 of 88,886 registered electors (43.9%)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 27, 2012, 02:45:00 AM
It's late, and I'm tired, so I'm just going to paste my summary thoughts over from Twitter, and then I have to go brief 2 cases for class:

Winner #1: the Tories, for holding on to both ridings, and finishing 3rd in Victoria.
Winner #2: the Green Party, for a close 2nd place in Victoria.
Loser #1: the NDP, for a terrible performance in Calgary Centre, and a much closer than expected margin in Victoria.
Loser #2: the Liberal Party, for not doing better in Calgary Centre and placing behind the Tories in Victoria.
Loser #3: voters who stayed home in Calgary Centre, which was expected to be the hottest race of the night.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: doktorb on November 27, 2012, 05:05:04 AM
Are they always this interesting ;)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: DC Al Fine on November 27, 2012, 07:12:48 AM
Man, that would be awesome for the Tories if the Greens won Victoria. 3 credible left of centre parties splitting the vote. *drools*


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 27, 2012, 07:25:05 AM
Not sure if the Greenies doing very well in a by-election in Victoria ought to be seen as entirely surprising.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Holmes on November 27, 2012, 07:57:05 AM
By-election and all, but my god, I don't understand why anyone would vote for the Green Party.

Only in BC.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 08:08:51 AM
How soon do we get to see results by poll?

It will take awhile, normally around a month.


More than that, actually.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 08:18:35 AM
In terms of vote change, the Tories are last night's biggest losers (down 11%). The Liberals actually went up 3.5%, while the Greens were the biggest winners (obviously) up 13%. NDP down 6%.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 27, 2012, 10:27:03 AM
By-election and all, but my god, I don't understand why anyone would vote for the Green Party.

Only in BC.

And only on Vancouver Island, it seems.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 10:36:57 AM
By-election and all, but my god, I don't understand why anyone would vote for the Green Party.

Only in BC.

And only on Vancouver Island, it seems.

There are some Green pockets on the mainland as well. Expect the Greens to heavily target Vancouver Centre. Maybe Adrienne Carr will run again (don't forget, she was elected to city council last year). They have done well provincially up on the Sunshine coast as well, but I suspect West Vancouver is too Conservative to let that riding go to the Greens.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: toaster on November 27, 2012, 10:57:38 AM
Man, that would be awesome for the Tories if the Greens won Victoria. 3 credible left of centre parties splitting the vote. *drools*
The Green Party is not left of centre.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on November 27, 2012, 11:02:19 AM
Man, that would be awesome for the Tories if the Greens won Victoria. 3 credible left of centre parties splitting the vote. *drools*
The Green Party is not left of centre.

Yeah. I'm guessing that the Green support areas in Victoria will come from the eastern half of the riding, which is the more conservative part.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on January 02, 2013, 05:50:21 PM
A little birdie (Krago) emailed this to me. I hope he doesn't mind me posting it here:

()

Kitchener-Waterloo by-election map.

Compare to 2011 results

()


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on January 02, 2013, 11:35:16 PM
Can I just say that Krago is awesome, and that it's a great loss that he no longer posts here.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 28, 2013, 11:22:50 AM
Poll by poll results of the Fall by-elections have been posted (a few days ago) on the Elections Canada site: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2012b&document=index&lang=e

Krago has sent me some maps, I will post them later.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on February 28, 2013, 02:37:14 PM
Poll by poll results of the Fall by-elections have been posted (a few days ago) on the Elections Canada site: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2012b&document=index&lang=e

Krago has sent me some maps, I will post them later.

Excellent! Really looking forward to seeing those, particularly the Calgary and Victoria ones.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 28, 2013, 03:04:39 PM
Poll by poll results of the Fall by-elections have been posted (a few days ago) on the Elections Canada site: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2012b&document=index&lang=e

Krago has sent me some maps, I will post them later.

Excellent! Really looking forward to seeing those, particularly the Calgary and Victoria ones.

Victoria is quite.... bizarre. As to be expected in an NDP vs Green race, I guess.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on February 28, 2013, 03:27:25 PM
Poll by poll results of the Fall by-elections have been posted (a few days ago) on the Elections Canada site: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2012b&document=index&lang=e

Krago has sent me some maps, I will post them later.

Excellent! Really looking forward to seeing those, particularly the Calgary and Victoria ones.

Victoria is quite.... bizarre. As to be expected in an NDP vs Green race, I guess.

Yeah, the relative closeness of those two is the reason I am interested in them. So no real discernable patterns in Victoria, just randomness?


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 28, 2013, 04:35:29 PM
Poll by poll results of the Fall by-elections have been posted (a few days ago) on the Elections Canada site: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2012b&document=index&lang=e

Krago has sent me some maps, I will post them later.

Excellent! Really looking forward to seeing those, particularly the Calgary and Victoria ones.

Victoria is quite.... bizarre. As to be expected in an NDP vs Green race, I guess.

Yeah, the relative closeness of those two is the reason I am interested in them. So no real discernable patterns in Victoria, just randomness?

There's always patterns. If I were more knowledgeable about the city, I could have more to say. Obviously the Oak Bay area is more wealthy and therefore more right wing, but neither the Greens nor the NDP did well there (well, the Greens won Oak Bay, I think, but had lower margins than in the areas they won in Victoria).

Basically, the wealthy areas were 3 way races between the Greens, Liberals and Tories while the less wealthy areas were 2 way races between the NDP and Greens. But beyond that, I'm not knowledgeable enough to discern any patterns.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 28, 2013, 06:14:35 PM
Here's Victoria. I'll upload the others later.

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Compare to 2011:

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Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 28, 2013, 06:19:03 PM
Due to mass vote splitting, the NDP actually won some polls that they had lost last time, probably with a much lower share of the vote.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on February 28, 2013, 06:55:29 PM
Due to mass vote splitting, the NDP actually won some polls that they had lost last time, probably with a much lower share of the vote.

I assume due to vote splitting, I also see a poll won by the Tories, which they didn't win in 2011 (on the water, immediately West of the Parliament).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on March 02, 2013, 05:10:40 PM
This is obviously just very speculative guessing, but I wonder whether the reason the city is so un-polarized is that the Green vote skews both younger and more educated/upper-middle-class, which cancel each other out geographically. Meaning: in the more affluent professional areas on the south shore and the east by Oak Bay, the Liberal and Tory vote swung Green but there is a base of older public-sector/academic NDP voters, while in the cheaper areas inland and northwest towards Esquimalt the less well-off long-term residents vote NDP but the Greens won the students and other young renters.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: adma on March 03, 2013, 11:14:33 AM
Not unlike the fed-prov results in Ontario at the height of the "NDP-Green" split in the late '00's (esp. in campus towns like Guelph, Waterloo, Kingston, etc)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 03, 2013, 11:17:57 AM
I'll make a median age map of Victoria to see if there's any trends...


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 04, 2013, 11:41:09 PM
Here's a median age map

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If anything, the younger areas were more likely to vote NDP.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 14, 2013, 03:07:07 PM
Peter Penashue has resigned and will contest the Labrador by-election. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2013/03/14/pol-peter-penashue-stepping-down.html)


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Smid on March 14, 2013, 03:25:32 PM
Good to see he's doing the right thing, even though it was a campaign volunteer, and not himself, who did the wrong thing.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: lilTommy on March 14, 2013, 04:06:31 PM
Good to see he's doing the right thing, even though it was a campaign volunteer, and not himself, who did the wrong thing.

I HIGHLY doubt this was an "error" made by a volunteer (who happens to be well respected and experienced, CBC politics just debunk that).
He did wrong, took freebies and corporate donations... finally stepped up though cause he had to, legally.

Was a dogfight between the Liberals and the Tories last time; i'm going with three-way fight (due to the high level of support for the NDP in NFLD).


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: RogueBeaver on March 14, 2013, 04:11:38 PM
PNP reporting that there are more donations TBR. CPC saying he's paid the Receiver-General 30k.


Title: Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on March 14, 2013, 07:37:08 PM
Wrong thread guys, this is for the 2012 by-elections.