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Title: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on February 08, 2012, 04:40:35 AM Maine: Romney
Guam: Romney Michigan: Romney Arizona: Santorum 3 wins for Romney wouldn't be as good for him as it sounds though. Maine has byzantine rules and some of the voting already happened. No one cares about Guam. And Michigan is where he grew up and his father was elected governor. Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: redcommander on February 08, 2012, 05:42:22 AM Doesn't Romney have McCain and Brewer's support? It would be quite hard for him to lose the state with those two endorsing him.
Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 08, 2012, 05:46:09 AM Doesn't Romney have McCain and Brewer's support? It would be quite hard for him to lose the state with those two endorsing him. Yeah, just like Nikki Haley and Tim Pawlenty delivered South Carolina and Minnesota. Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Joe Republic on February 08, 2012, 05:50:50 AM Plus, Brewer hasn't endorsed anybody yet.
Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Mr. Morden on February 08, 2012, 05:52:03 AM My understanding was that the Guam caucus was in March. What's your source on it being in February?
Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Grumpier Than Thou on February 08, 2012, 06:31:12 AM Maine: Paul
Michigan: Romney Arizona: Romney Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Holmes on February 08, 2012, 07:43:19 AM Santorum on all three.
Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on February 08, 2012, 08:17:47 AM Maine: Paul Michigan: Romney Arizona: Romney Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Hatman 🍁 on February 08, 2012, 08:27:58 AM Wikipedia says it's the Northern Marina Islands that are having their primary.
Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Yelnoc on February 08, 2012, 09:58:59 AM Maine: Paul
Guam: Romney Michigan: Santorum Arizona: Romney Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Grumpier Than Thou on February 08, 2012, 10:03:03 AM Michigan: Santorum Really? Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Mehmentum on February 08, 2012, 10:09:08 AM Maine: Paul Guam: Romney Michigan: Santorum Arizona: Romney Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: tpfkaw on February 08, 2012, 10:39:37 AM Maine: Paul
Obscure island: Romney Michigan: Santorum Arizona: Santorum Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: useful idiot on February 08, 2012, 11:10:16 AM Mormons make up a far larger percentage of the GOP electorate in Arizona than they do in Colorado. I don't see Romney losing there.
However I think people have been overestimating Romney's strength in Michigan. Santorum is a far better fit for a lot of those western MI conservatives and lower-middle-class voters. When Rick is winning in landslides in states like Minnesota and Missouri, I don't see why the fact that Romney's father was governor over 40 years ago is going to nullify the midwestern trend towards Santorum. Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: TomC on February 08, 2012, 11:21:50 AM Michigan: Santorum Really? If Santorum could win Michigan, I'd be happy for the rest of the year. Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 08, 2012, 12:07:51 PM Maine: Paul
Guam: Romney (I guess? Is it a caucus or a primary? Because if it's a caucus we should never discount the Paultard presence) Arizona: Romney Michigan: Romney Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Tender Branson on February 08, 2012, 12:11:40 PM Wiki says Northern Marianas are in February, Green Papers says on March 10.
What's correct ? Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Simfan34 on February 08, 2012, 12:31:59 PM Maine: Romney
Guam: Romney Michigan: Santorum Arizona: Santorum Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Cory on February 08, 2012, 01:20:31 PM Forgive me if I'm mistaken, but if Romney doesn't win Michigan how does he remain viable? Never mind if Newt drops out and Santorum runs away with super-Tuesday.
Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Stranger in a strange land on February 08, 2012, 01:52:11 PM Maine: Paul
Guam: Romney Michigan: Romney (though Santorum will make it close) Arizona: Romney Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Bacon King on February 08, 2012, 01:53:22 PM Northern Marianas (http://www.saipantribune.com/newsstory.aspx?cat=1&newsID=116333) are on March 10th. The Guam GOP looks like it hasn't announced their caucus date yet, but it's almost certainly not in the next couple of weeks.
Though, predictions! Maine Mitt Romney: 36% Ron Paul: 33% Newt Gingrich: 19% Rick Santorum: 12% Michigan Romney: 33% Santorum: 32% Gingrich: 21% Paul: 14% Arizona Romney: 39% Santorum: 34% Gingrich: 19% Paul: 8% Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: RIP Robert H Bork on February 08, 2012, 01:54:42 PM Maine: Romney (maybe Paul)
Arizona: Romney Michigan: Santorum Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: King on February 08, 2012, 02:10:48 PM Maine: Paul
Arizona: Gingrich Michigan: Santorum Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P! on February 08, 2012, 03:10:54 PM Maine: Paul (possibly Romney)
Michigan: Romney (possibly Santorum) Arizona: Romney (possibly Santorum) Guam: Romney (damned if I know who else could win) Michigan is really iffy now. I woulda thought it'd be safe Romney seeing as how he basically has home field advantage, but then it's one of the best states in terms of demographics for Santorum (blue collar middle class workers and religious types inland). I guess we'll see if Romney is willing to unload his attack ads like he did on Gingrich. However, this race will be really boring if Santorum flounders like Gingrich now. So, GO SANTORUM! Heres to a brokered convention! Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: RI on February 08, 2012, 03:20:16 PM Maine: Paul
Michigan: Santorum Arizona: Romney Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: TomC on February 08, 2012, 03:41:30 PM I guess we'll see if Romney is willing to unload his attack ads like he did on Gingrich. It hurts his fav/unfav #s too much to keep going negative like that. He's got to actually appeal to voters. Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on February 08, 2012, 05:14:07 PM ME: Romney
AZ: Romney MI: Romney Guam: Romney Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Cory on February 08, 2012, 05:20:17 PM It hurts his fav/unfav #s too much to keep going negative like that. He's got to actually appeal to voters. Yeah. That and it seems to me that Newt is frankly much easier to attack on a personal level then Santorum. Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: retromike22 on February 08, 2012, 05:23:41 PM Michigan: Santorum
Arizona: Gingrich Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 08, 2012, 05:31:19 PM Maine
Paul 42% Romney 37% Santorum 13% Gingrich 8% Michigan Romney 37% Santorum 31% Gingrich 17% Paul 15% Arizona Romney 44% Gingrich 23% Santorum 21% Paul 11% Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Averroës Nix on February 08, 2012, 07:09:26 PM Maine
Paul 34% Romney 28% Santorum 25% Gingrich 13% Michigan 39% Santorum 36% Romney 13% Paul 11% Gingrich Arizona 30% Gingrich 28% Santorum 28% Romney 12% Paul Not a lot of evidence to go on, so I may as well be optimistic. Realistically, Arizona is a likely Romney win, and Michigan either lean-Romney or a toss-up. Expecting Romney to win Maine seems rational, but it's hard to believe that he'll do well in a caucus state that he hasn't even visited. After last night, I'll call it a Romney-Paul toss-up - though I wouldn't be surprised if the winner had under 30%, or if Romney finished third. Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: morgieb on February 08, 2012, 07:56:59 PM Too weird for me to predict accurately.
Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: NHI on February 08, 2012, 08:39:42 PM Maine: (Either Paul or Romney win)
Romney: 35% Paul: 35% Santorum: 15% Gingrich: 13% Michigan: Romney: 39% Santorum: 29% Gingrich: 15% Paul: 14% Arizona: Romney: 35% Santorum: 29% Gingrich: 22% Paul: 12% Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Eraserhead on February 08, 2012, 09:26:15 PM Maine: Paul
Guam: Romney I guess, but nobody cares Michigan: Romney Arizona: Romney Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Colbert on February 08, 2012, 09:45:27 PM guam : WTF?
maine : reasonables and moderate yankees...romney, of course arizona : rough Republicans.... the little-nose of SC michigan : a blue-collar state....santorum could win. Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: redcommander on February 08, 2012, 11:23:11 PM I don't know why all of you think Santorum would win Romney's home state.
Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Bacon King on February 09, 2012, 01:03:32 AM I don't know why all of you think Santorum would win Romney's home state. 1. Romney has like five home states 2. "Let Detroit go bankrupt" x 100 Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: RI on February 09, 2012, 01:30:25 AM I don't know why all of you think Santorum would win Romney's home state. 1. Romney has like five home states 2. "Let Detroit go bankrupt" x 100 This, plus Santorum is about the perfect candidate to capitalize on Mitt's weaknesses there. Gingrich can't do it. Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: Mr. Morden on February 09, 2012, 03:22:18 AM Romney might not be able to outspend Gingrich and Santorum 10-1 in every single state, but he's not going to take any chances in Michigan. Losing there just one week before Super Tuesday would be way too embarrassing.
But Santorum could still get a decent share of the delegates there if he's a strong 2nd. Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: RIP Robert H Bork on February 09, 2012, 12:37:18 PM I don't know why all of you think Santorum would win Romney's home state. I don't think Massachusetts votes in February. Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: ShadowRocket on February 09, 2012, 11:33:46 PM Maine:
Paul- 43% Romney- 36% Santorum- 11% Gingrich- 10% Michigan: Romney- 39% Santorum- 32% Paul- 17% Gingrich- 12% Arizona: Romney- 38% Gingrich- 26% Santorum- 24% Paul- 12% Title: Re: Predict the remaining Feburary races Post by: hotpprs on February 10, 2012, 12:49:56 AM True true.
Even if it was his home turf, not his dad's, it doesn't guarantee anything. Gore couldn't even carry Tennessee in 2000. I don't know why all of you think Santorum would win Romney's home state. I don't think Massachusetts votes in February. |